AUTONATION CURE BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

Arkansas State vs UCF -

Arkansas State  after a slow start to the season, really picked up alot of steam as the campaign progressed. On offense the Red Wolves have scored 30 or more in five of their last six games -- the only one without 30 points being the only loss in those six games. The Red Wolves  defense was solid all season long, but got even better as the season progressed, and will give the Knights offense alot of problems. Meanwhile, UCF is 0-6 against Bowl teams this season and lost the stats war in 8 straight games to finish their campaign. Needless to say we have a bit of a false favorite scenario here. Note: The favorite has lost the L/4 UCF Bowl games.

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL - University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM

New Mexico started the season very slowly but rebounded to go 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in its last seven games to make a rare bowl appearance and will be pumped up to get a win.The Lobos have gotten to this point in the season behind a explosive top-ranked rushing attack. New Mexico, averaging 360.9 rushing yards per game, behind two 1000-yard rushers with Teriyon Gipson and Tyrone Owens, mowing over opposition defenses on a consistent basis .    The  Lobos offense ranks No. 22-in the nation (37.83 PPG) against a UTSA Roadrunners defense that ranks No. 69 allowing an average of  28.33 PPG.   I expect the Lobos win this one with their rush attack  by smashing and crashing and wearing down a UTSA Defense, that can be gashed for big yards . Hey guys, I know the Lobos D, is irrelevant and very porous, but New Mexico has found a way to win the war of attrition under similar circumstances this season, and will get the job done again in front of what should see them backed by a majority of the crowd in Albuquerque. 

CFB Home favorites like New Mexico  - excellent rushing team (4.8 YPR or more) against a team with a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games are 36-14 ATS dating back 24 years.

Sunday's matchup between rust belt rivals Pittsburgh and Buffalo sets up a situation where a Steelers team that is on a three game winning streak uses its momentum to take out their hosts the Bills.Pittsburgh a side that has won 6 straight stats battles,controls its fate over the final four weeks of this season, and cannot afford a single loss, and will play like its sudden death. The Bills (6-6) are not out of the playoff picture, but things look dim. When looking at the matchup the main issues that Buffalo's has is a ugly pass offense that ranks last in the NFL .Im betting they will have trouble again this week, keeping up with a balanced Pittsburgh attack, that can score through the air or with the ground game. ( Steelers are 9-1 SU L/10 vs the Bills).

Pittsburgh to cover 1 unit reg selection

Miami is a over rated side, and have lost the stats battles in 4 of their L/5 games. They entered last week with 6 straight wins, before falling apart in a 38-6 smack down at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. Now the Fins go against a Arizona side with a 5-6- 1-record and are in a no mistake free zone. HC Arians and company can not afford another loss if they hope to get into the play offs, so they will be primed to get a victory, and will be ready to play with some heart and soul. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 1-9 ATS L/10 vs below .500 NFC visiting sides, and have only covered 5 o their 19 vs the NFC West. MIAMI is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season .MIAMI is 0-10 ATS L/11 in December games and is 0-6 ATS L/6 after allowing 35 points or more last game. Cards HC Arians is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games in December games as the coach
Home teams like the Dolphins - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are just 38-73 ATS dating back to the 2003 season and NFL home teams like the Fins with a lone of +3 to -3 a slow starting team outscored by 5+ ppg in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are just 17-47 ATS over the L/10 seasons. 

Play on the Arizona Cards to cover 1 unit reg selection

Kansas City and Oakland do battle tonight, in a AFC battle, that should be hard fought. The Chiefs despite of their current 7-1 run, have been through some brutal battles, and have lost the stats wars in their L/5 games and are pretty lucky to be on this big of a run. I know KC beat up up on the Raiders in a earlier meeting in the Black hole, earlier this season 26-10, but things are different now with super star QB Carr moving  into top tier NFL status. With that said,  the Raiders must be respected enough to get the revenge they seek. Oakland is a perfect 9-0 SU/ATS as a division road underdog of 6 points or less.

We know how explosive Oakland can be on offense, but the D, has shown some inadequacies. But it must be noted that 

KANSAS CITY is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games vs. lower tier defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game.OAKLAND is 9-0 ATS L/9 as a road underdog . OAKLAND is 10-0 ATS L/10 in road games against conference opponents.

Play on the Oakland Raiders to cover 1 unit reg selection 

With Andrew Luck now expected to play, I have decided to pull the trigger on the Indianapolis Colts tonight in their battle with the downtrodden NY Jets.Colts still have a chance at the paly offs and will be playing with desperation. Meanwhile, despite of NYJ fans demanding a QB change, the Jets will once again go with the struggling  Fitzpatrick who has thrown 13 interceptions in 10 games. Fitzpatrick has completed just 57.6 percent of his passes and looks unstable at best, and gives even more credence in my decision to lay it with Indy on the road. 

Andrew Luck is 19-4 SU and 16-4-3 ATS in division games and a perfect 8-0 SU of a Colts loss.

INDIANAPOLIS is 25-12 ATS L/27 as a road favorite of 3 points or less and HC Pogano Pagano is 10-2 ATS L/12 vs. lower tier teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. 

Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Arizona might not inspire alot of bettors right now after a very inconsistent season, but according to my power rankings, Washington is over rated and in a bad spot this week.It must also be noted that teams playing in non-division contests following a Thanksgiving Day appearance have lost 35 of 56 games (SU) and since 1992 are just 9-21 ATS L/30 and 9-20-1 SU away after their big Turkey dinner.. With that said, for at least one game , I expect we see a vintage Cards team take advantage of a shabby Skins D, and for their own D, to stand tall in the desert vs a Washington offense that will not be running on a full tank of gas.

ARIZONA is 17-5 ATS L/22 in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. The Cardinals are 15-0 ATS/SU at home on Sunday when the line is within 3 of pick and they lost and failed to cover their last two games.

Home teams like Arizona - after a loss by 14 or more points against opponent after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games are 49-21 ATS for a 70% conversion rate on the line. 

Play on Arizona to cover 1 unit reg selection

New Orleans enters this game playing their best football of the season and have out stated their L/7 opponents since their bye week. Meanwhile, the Lions are off a crazy win thanks to last minute interception  vs Minnesota on Thanks giving Day, after being down by 3 points with a few minutes left on the clock. With that said, I now expect the Lions to be in a letdown spot, after that emotional victory, It must also be noted the Saints are 3-17 SU in their L/20 post game situations after Turkey day and have failed to cover 4 of their L/5.

NEW ORLEANS is also a  perfect 8-0 ATS L/8 versus good offensive teams like the Lions - averaging 5.65 yards/play dating back to last season.DETROIT is 1-11 ATS L/12 in road games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games and is 8-26 ATS L/34 in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins. 

Play on New Orleans to cover 1 unit reg selection

I was hoping to see this matchup this week, and low in behold I get my wish. According to my own data base matchups Wisconsin on a neutral  field should be 4.5 point favorities, but on further considerations, my player to player and offensive/defensive unit correlations tell me that this could easily be a 6 point plus victory for the Badgers. Thus laying points here is a viable investment option. Note: Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook is said to be feeling better after a some light head trauma last week, and despite of his status being day to day, may pundits expect he will play in this big game. If not his so called back up Houston is a very viable option and in my opinion the superior QB. 

HC Franklin of Penn State  is 0-9 ATS  in road games when playing against a top-level team .750 or better win %. 

 PENN ST is 20-43 ATS L/63 versus good defensive teams - allowing 310  or less yards/game like Wisconsin and 8-22 ATS L/30 in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.WISCONSIN is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games when playing on a Saturday this season.

Wisconsin to cover 1 unit reg selection

Georgia State (3-8) has struggled this season, and are 0-5 on the road while averaging just 13 ppg on offense. Their rush D, has allowed an average of 236 ypg, when on the road, and thats not a good omen for this chances at a win or cover here vs a Idaho side that is 8-0 ATS L/8 when they rush for 150-to 200 ypg. 

IDAHO is 10-1 ATS L/11 when playing against a team with a losing record and  6-0 ATS  when playing against a lower tier team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) 

Play on Idaho to cover 1 unit reg selection 

We have a good situation to bet into here with Baylor as big double digit underdogs. I know the Bears have not looked all that stable of late, but West Virginia despite of a win last week, against Iowa State have shown some late season defensive holes, and have allowed 218, 316, and 190 yards rushing in their L/3 and are looking tired as a unit. Thats something Baylor can take advantage of via a run game that has averaged 5.8 ypc on the road and an average 326 ypg. It must be noted that  WV HC Holgorsen is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game which happend vs Iowa State last week.

Play on Baylor to cover 1 unit reg selection 

AAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Navy Memorial Stadium - Annapolis, MD

Temples D is one of the few stop units in college Football that can harness the triple option offense of Navy. Also according to my own preferred data base matchup statistics, the wrong team is favored. I know that Navy has not lost here for a while now, but all good and bad runs must come to an end. But not withstanding a SU win, Im betting we get the all important cover. With that said, Im taking a rare double unit stand here, with Temple as my College Football Game of the Year. Im on the take here with the points.

TEMPLE is 9-0 ATS L/9 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 425 or more yards/game winning SU by an average of 22.8 ppg game.TEMPLE is 8-0 ATS against conference opponents this season.

A road team like Temple - allowing 200 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are a bankroll expanding 47-19 ATS since 1992 for a 71% conversion rate.

Play on Temple to cover 2 Unit - Generals Club Game of the Year

Kansas State has proven a great deal to me this season, have already beaten up on Baylor in a road tilt this season. I have been impressed with their overall tenaciousness, and once again feel the Cats are solid underdogs this week vs a over rated opponent. It must be noted that TCU QB Kenny Hill hurt his foot last week, and if he plays will be less than 100% as is the case with RB Kyle Hicks with a rib injury. 

TCU is 0-6 ATS L/6 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points dating back to last season and has failed to cover their L/6 home games.

Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection 

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - LT Smith Stadium - Bowling Green, KY

LA Tech beat W.Kentucy 55-52 in their first matchup this season at LA Tech. But now with revenge on board and front of what will be partisan home crowd I expect the tables will be reversed in a big way. With the ‘Toppers get revenge at home behind the arm of  QB White and legs of  RB Wales, and their more consistent defense will be the difference maker this week.

W KENTUCKY is 12-4 ATS L/16 against conference opponents dating back to last season.

A home team like Western Kentucky - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 26-8 ATS since 1991. 

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Western Michigan still undefeated smashed Toledo last week in a DD win despite of losing the stats sheet battle, and now the College football world expects another easy win for the Bronos this week vs the Ohio Bobcats. However, I am not going to follow the party line and instead in contrarian fashion, expect the Bobbies to make a game of this MAC Championship event. It must be noted that in the past the W.Mich has covered only 1 of 5 games after a 20 point or more victory, while Ohio has covered 5 of their L/6 as DD conference dogs. Also MAC Championship games with a favorite of 7 or more points has crashed and burned 5 of the L/6 times with undefeated teams going 0-3 ATS while losing 2 times. After last weeks showdown with Toledo, Western Michigan is a precarious emotional situation, and despite of that win , as mentioned above lost the overall stats battle. 
Also from a league wide CFB data base: Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like W.Mich - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-tier team (.800 or better record ) playing a good team (.600 to .800 ) are just 16-44 ATS since 1991 for a 73% go against conversion rate! 

Play on Ohio to cover 1 unit reg selection

Green Bay and Philadelphia are in slumps, and both need a win here badly. The Packers have lost four in a row , while the Eagles have crashed back to Earth with losses in five of their last seven games, and  last week at Seattle lost  by 11 points. Hoever,  the Green Machine's other four losses have come by a combined 19 points. Those close games tell me nothing comes easy for the Eagles, win or lose , thus getting and taking points with another desperate team makes extreme sense.With both teams banged up and both are dealing with  disadvantages, neither team has a solid advantage, other than home field advantage, which is desingnated via the line. But in a key game like this, Im betting on QB Aaron Rodgers out dueling Eagles rookie under center Carson Wentz.

From a long term NFL trends perspective, Road teams like the Packers - off a road loss, in November games are 170-108 ATS L/278 games for a 61% conversion rate on the line. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like GB - off a road loss, a lower tier team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season, are 106 -60 ATS for a 63% conversion rate. Home teams like the Eagles - off a road loss against opponent off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more like the Packers are 72-120 ATS L/192 for go against conversion rate on the line of 63%. 

Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

New Orleans has not been able to take advantage of teams like St.Louis in the recent past that struggle to score consistently. Payton is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game as the coach. Meanwhile the Rams have done well vs lower tier defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game. LA RAMS are 13-4 ATS L/17 in road games . 

Home favorites like Saints - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 3-22 ATS L/25.

Play on LA Rams to cover 1 unit reg selection

After putting on a crazy amount of air miles on their bodies this season, Hawaii really looks burned out, and have very little left in the proverbial  tank. And yes, I know UMass does not give bettors a great deal of confidence, but they have shown flashes of some strong football, and are every bit as good as the Rainbow Warriors and will prove here tonight via a cover. 

HAWAII is 1-8 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record dating back to last season and are 0-6 ATS L/6 as favorite and have failed to cover 7 straight November tilts and  is 1-10 ATS L/11 in the second half of the season.

Play on UMass to cover 1 unit reg selection 

North Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection -late steam

Ole Miss is off getting blasted as 10 point road favorites vs Vanderbilt last week losing a 38-17 decision. Which puts into play a league wide trend that shows  Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Ole Mississippi - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in November games are a ugly 8-31 ATS in their follow up game . Meanwhile, Miss State of off a 58-42 home loss to Arkansas last week, where the offense still rolled up big numbers . This trend is from a league wide trend - A road team like  Miss State - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-10 ATS.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 11-1 ATS L/12 after playing a game at home over the last couple of  seasons.

Play on Miss State to cover 1 unit reg selection 

After highly charged and brutally physical  back to back games against Louisville and Clemson, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are in a tough situation against an extremely tough Boston College defense, that will once again punish their anemic offense.

Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Wake Forest are 12-30 ATS L/42 - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.

Play on Boston College to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Arkansas State has gotten progressively better as the season has gone on and are now a contender in the Sun Belt conference again. Last week they demolished Troy by a 34-7 count as 9 point dogs, and now this week as short road favorites vs a LA Lafayette team that showed promise earlier in the season, is struggling now and must be considered a strong go against bet. Lafayette has faded of late losing 4 of their L/6 SU. LA LAFAYETTE is 2-10 ATS L/12 in home games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.ARKANSAS ST is 15-4 ATS L/19 after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins. ARKANSAS ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.ARKANSAS ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 in November games.

Arkansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection

This is the ugly Betty, of the College Football rotational board this week, as Maryland hosts Rutgers. Both programs have looked like crap this season, and both do not inspire bettors. But while looking at my data base I noticed big DD dogs, under various futile parameters have shown these ugly dogs do well ATS vs these not so pretty favorites. The same type of trends anomalies showed up earlier this season when Rutgers were 18 point dogs at decent Minnesota and almost sprung the upset by losing a 32-34 decision. With little left to play for I doubt Maryland will be pumped up for this tilt and will probably just go through the motions in front a bunch of empty seats. Note:  Maryland injury update [QB] 11/20/2016 - Perry Hills questionalble Saturday vs. Rutgers ( Shoulder ) and if he plays will be less than 100%.

Play on Rutgers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

This is a big MAC game between two of the better teams in the nation. I expect a hard fought affair from beginning to end, with the points eventually being golden for bettors. Grab the points for a solid bet. 

CFB League Wide Trend: CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Rockets are 44-18 ATS - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (440 YPG or more ), after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games. 

W MICHIGAN is 2-15 ATS L/17 in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better and is 1-11 ATS L/12 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.W MICHIGAN is 4-15 ATS L/19 in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game.TOLEDO is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road lined games dating back to last season. Toledo HC Fleck is 10-1 ATS L/11 off a home win

Play on the Toledo Rockets to cover 1 unit reg selection

Two teams LSU and their hosts Texas A&M play this Thursday in a key game for both teams.  The Tigers head coach Orgeron needs a signature win at a chance to remain as a long shot coach of LSU. (Doubtful but a win here might get him his shot) Meanwhile, the Aggies, at 8-3 would love to get a chance at a 10 win season, with a victory today and in their Bowl game. As is usually the case in big games, defense will be key. Both are stout, but LSU's D, when motivated and when in top form can stop the best of offenses in this conference and the country. (With both sides, expected to be without key offensive cogs, LSU - RB L. Fournette and Texas A&M starting QB Trevor Knight)  D wins big games synopsis becomes more important than ever.

TEXAS A&M is 1-12 ATS L/13 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less  yards per return. TEXAS A&M is 0-6 ATS  in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread, which has just happened.TEXAS A&M is 1-8 ATS L/9  in home games against conference opponents. TEXAS A&M is 1-11 ATS L/12  in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. LSU has won 5 straight meetings in this series.

League Wide CFB Trend- Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Tigers - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 43-16 ATS.

Play on LSU to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Vikings enter this game with a 6-1 ATS record vs. a team with a winning record like Motown and 9-3 ATS in their L/12 road games. The Vikings won last time out, after an extended funk, and look ready to roll again. Meanwhile, the Lions are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC North and have only failed to cover 6 of the L/23 meetings in this series.

.Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 Minnesota - after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 67-36 ATS L/103 opportunities. 

DETROIT is 1-13 ATS L/14 against teams like the Vikings who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season. MINNESOTA is 12-1 ATS L/13 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points.DETROIT is 14-31 ATS L/45 after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Minnesota is 2-0 ATS L/2 meetings there. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Play on Minnesota to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Rams' No. 1 pick in this spring's NFL draft out of the University of California Jared Goff makes his debut this Sunday. I know the LA fan base is all giddy, but they really should temper their expectations, as the NFL has seen very few rookie QBs make a splash out of the gate. The Rams (4-5) were held without an offensive touchdown for the third straight game in a 9-6 victory over the Jets in New York last week, but the problems go beyond the QB position.Los Angeles ranks last in scoring at 15.4 points per game and the former No.1 man under center Keenum-led offense is 31st in total offense with an average of 308 yard. Meawhile, Miami at team that has won 4 straight, stayed out on the west coast all week, and have got themselves acclimated to the time change, and will be more than ready for this tilt. Miami is 6-1 L/7 played in this series.

Play on Miami to cover 1 unit reg selection   

Kansas City enters into this game vs Tampa Bay off a come from behind victory vs Carolina last week, after being down by double digits. Now because of that enormous comeback , they will be in a let an emotional down scenario this week at home in Arrowhead and alos in a look ahead situation with the defending Super Bowl champs Denver on board next week. Nothing has really come easy for KC this season despite of their positive record. Thanks to a fortunate plus-14 on takeaways/giveaways, which ranks them the No. 1 team in the league . They have forced 22 turnovers and given opponents eight fumbles and interceptions, and have scored 72 points off those takeaways. If it were not for those pumped up digits, and a tenacious D inside the red zone I would say this is an average team. Don;t get me wrong I like Andy Reids Chiefs, but I keep getting the nagging feeling that their offense will eventually ail them, and that what I am betting on this week. Last week banged up QB Alex Smith struggled at times, and only had one completion for more than 20 yards. This Sunday, Im betting Tampa Bays QB Winston and his top tier array of wide receivers, including super star Mike Evans get a jump on the Chiefs, and for this contest to be surprisingly close. With that said, take the points. 

KC is 4-9 ATS L/13 vs NFC South opponents including 0-3 ATS following a win. TAMPA BAY is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games. Interesting side note shows that TB has not lost to the Chiefs in 24 seasons, going a perfect 4-0 SU. Final note: KC is 0-10 ATS L/10 before facing Denver.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Cowboys (8-1) are riding an NFL-best eight-game winning streak but according to my own power rankings  are getting far to much respect here vs the best defense in the NFL.  I expect new No.1 QB Prescott will struggle this week, because of the Ravens ability to control play option, thanks to  the Ravens top tier  defensive line, which is allowing just 71.3 yards per game via the run , also best in the NFL. It must be noted that the Cowboys are the only team in the NFL that does not have a victory against the Ravens, losing each of the last four confrontations. NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Baltimore- after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season are a bankroll expanding 35-12 ATS for a 75% conversion rate on the line. Note: Baltimore has not lost by more than 7 points this season. HC Garrett is 4-17 ATS L/21 in home games vs. lower tier passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Air Force enters this game having won three straight tilts, but wont get a Mountain West title shot, and now are out to pad their Bowl game resume against a San Jose State side just playing out the string. Air force needs a big showing, while San Jose State will most likely stand around twiddling their thumbs  waiting for a new coach after 4th straight losing season. SAN JOSE ST is 0-10 ATS L/10 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points . 

A College Football home team like the Spartans - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games. are an ugly 5-32 ATS L/37.  College Football Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Air Force- after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are a bankroll expanding 40-15 ATS L/55.A College Football home team like San Jose State - after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games. is 8-37 ATS L/45. 

Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Oh boy talk about a hangover. Thats what I am betting the Huskies have this week, after a hard fought and heart breaking loss to USC last week that ended their undefeated season. Now in a a emotional letdown scenario the Huskies go against a Arizona State side that has a recent history of domination in this  series as is evident by a 10-0 SU/ATS L/10 record. Also the Suns Devils have only failed to cover once in their L/6 times as 12 or more point conference dogs.

Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Virginia Tech is the superior side and even though the Irish are improving, Virginia Tech’s D unit has been a little more consistent and will be the difference maker here on the road.

College football Road teams where the line is +3 to -3  like Vtech - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game. are 134-73 ATS for a long term 65% conversion rate on the line. 

NOTRE DAME is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games off 4 or more consecutive unders. 

Play on VTech to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Washington State enters this game against Colorado on a 8-0 run and are a perfect 7-0 in conference play.  The Cougars are in top form, not only with their offense but with a defense, that has held four different opponents to season low or 2nd low yards per game. This one has the making of a one score game, with the points being golden. 

WASHINGTON ST is 11-1 ATS l/12 vs. good passing teams like Colorado with a completion pct. of 58% or better and 6-0 ATS vs a side with a 62% completion rate or better, and is 8-0 ATS L/8 versus top tier  offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game.WASHINGTON ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 as an underdog. Washington is a perfect 3-0 ATS L/3 games at Colorado.

A College Football road team like Washington State  - average defensive team (330-390 YPG) against a good defensive team (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-9 ATS for a 80% conversion rate on the line.

Take the points with Washington State 1 unit reg selection 

Minnesota's  HC Claeys is 6-0 ATS L/6  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread.

Minnesota to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Bill Snyders Kansas State is off a bye week, which is good news for their betting backers, as they flash a 10-0 ATS record with rest over the last 5 seasons. The Wildcats need just one win to get the a Bowl and Im betting it comes today, vs a Baylor squad  on a 0-3 ATS/SU skid and that is expected to start a freshman QB this week in  Zach Smith. 

BAYLOR is 10-23 ATS L/33  in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing  120 or less rushing yards/game.BAYLOR is 1-9 ATS L10 after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 game.

Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection 

    The Troy Trojans are coming off a come from behind victory over power house Appalachian State last week, and will now be in a letdown situation this week. Meanwhile, Arkansas State is a team that has been improving as the season has continued something I projected to happen. Look for and bet on the Red Wolves making life difficult for Troy and getting us the cover. ARKANSAS ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better and is 11-2 ATS L/13 against conference opponents

Play on Arkansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection   

The Carolina Panthers are frustrated, after losing 20-17 against KC this past Sunday, despite of a DD lead entering the last quarter of play. Now with revenge on board for a 41-38 loss to the New Orleans Saints earlier this season, and a need for redemption for last weeks ugly loss hanging over their heads, you can bet we will see Carolina at their best. 

NFL Favorites like the Panthers - revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent, off an upset loss as a favorite are a bankroll expanding 27-6 ATS for a 82% conversion rate on the line.

CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS L/6 in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season and 18-4 ATS  L/22 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game, CAROLINA is 35-11 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points and HC Riveria has covered 12 of his L/15 vs the same peremiters .

Play on Carolina to cover 1 unit reg selection 

 Louisville came out asleep at the proverbial wheel in their last game against Wake Forest , and needed a late surge in the fourth quarter to get by the Demon Deacons.  Now this week, they go against a Houston team that is perfect , 13-0 SU at home under  HC Tom Herman,. I know Houston started their year out with alot of hope, and despite of a lack of  enthusiasm at certain times this season, are a fine team that must be respected on their own home field. This is by far Houstons biggest game of the season, and Im betting they come out here on fire. In their L/49 home games the Cougars when above .500 on the season  have never lost by more than 13 points. HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS L/7 as an underdog.

Take the points with Houston 1 unit reg selection 

The Patriots are 7-1 with a three-game lead in the AFC East and the favorites to come out of the AFC. The Seahawks, 5-2-1 and atop the NFC West, are always a factor in the NFL race for a Super Bowl championship. Both have top tier coaches, with Belichick and Carroll. One thing for sure is, that Caroll looks at this as an opportunity for redemption after blowing a Big lead in Super Bowl 49. I expect a tight affair with the points proving to be golden.


SEATTLE is 13-4 ATS L/17 in the second half of the season over the last few seasons.Carroll is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att! Carroll is also 17-3 ATS versus defenses - allowing more than 350 yards/game in the second half of the season.

The Seahawks are 14-0 ATS/13-1 SU off any game in which their completion percentage was at least ten percentage points high than their season-to-date average. the one SU loss came by just 2 points. 

Road teams like Seattle - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (7.3 PYA or more yards), after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 35-15 ATS for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play on Seattle to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Panthers have won two games in a row since starting the season with only one victory across their first six games. Meanwhile, The Panthers (3-5) are coming off victories against Arizona and the Los Angeles Rams (3-5). But I myself still see alot of problems with Carolina's overall flow this season, espeially QB Newton,  and believe that they may actually end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard this week, vs a very opportunistic KC defense  that can  gain control of the line of scrimmage. HC Rivera said the Panthers appeared to be a fatigued team, something he attributed to coming off the West Coast trip and this factor Im betting puts them at a disadvantage today.  Note: KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game like the Panthers. Chiefs are also 10-0 ATS/U L/10 when visiting a non-divisional opponent with fewer wins.

Key Injury update: [QB] 11/07/2016 - Alex Smith is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Carolina.

Play on the KC Chiefs to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Bears enter this game vs TB well rested  after a 13-day break. Chicago saw starting quarterback Jay Cutler return for its last game, a surprise Monday night win against the Minnesota Vikings. The team after going through a rash of injuries is healing with more key bodies.The Bucs' defense has allowed a combined 1,087 yards of total offense and 73 points in the last two losses  and while Chicago has not been explosive on offense this season, I expect they may have one of their best efforts of the season this Sunday, vs this swiss cheese TB defense.  TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS L/14  in home games against conference opponents.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Minnesota at 7-2 is not a team that should be taken lightly. Meanwhile, after a promising start to their season, Nebraska has fallen back to earth with a thud, and have lost two straight. After last weeks embarrassing massive DD loss to Ohio State, these young men come home demoralized.  Not a good spot for Nebraska this week. 

MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS L/10after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game. Nebraksas HC 

Riley is 2-13 ATS L/15 in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more  rushing yards/game .

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Gophers - outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game are a bankroll expanding 31-8 ATS. 

Minnesota to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Coming off a bye week, the Razorbacks put forth their vrery best effort of the season in a 31-10 beatdown of Florida , while LSU enters off a physical 10-0 battering and beating at the hands of the Crimson tide last week. One team has momentum , while the other is in a letdown situation. 

LSU is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons. Arkansas has won 2 straight meetings in this series.

Take the points with Arkansas 1 unit reg selection 

Ohio State rolled Nebraska last week, by a huge DD margin, Now after satisfying their egos, and upping their national ranking ,they may start a little slow this week against a Maryland side that has covered 4 of their L/5 as 28 or more point home dogs. You have to remember, that HC Urban Meyer and company have a Michigan State program that ruined their run for a National Championship last season, on board and will be in a look ahead situation. 
MARYLAND is 13-4 ATS L/17 in home games after a loss by 28 or more points, which qualifies after last weeks 59-3 loss to Michigan.

Play on the Maryland Terps to cover 1 unit reg selection

This is a big Sun Belt game, for App State (7-2) and (Troy 7-1). Big games are won with D, and nothing changes here today. Troy is offensively explosive , but this game will be won in the trenches. The Mountaineers have allowed just 16.9 ppg, (17 ppg on the road). 

Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 App State are 33-10 ATS - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games. Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like App State - good rushing team - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game have cashed 31 of the L/39 times for a huge 80% conversion rate vs the spread.

App State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Alabama is off a huge game against LSU last week and won a hard fought 10-0 defensive slugfest. These young men are beaten and battered, and will also be in an emotional let down state. Meanhile, Miss State showed their ability to hang with the big boys and took a win from Texas A&M last week. It must be noted that Miss State is 6-0 ATS in their L/6 as dogs of 23 points or more.

Road underdogs Miss State are 72-33 ATS L/95 opportunities - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more ), after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game. 

Take the points with Miss state 1 unit reg selection

Texas for their second straight week, got by an opponent in a shoot out, allowing a combined 80 points in those two games . With that said, its become obvious to me that HC Charlie Strong defense is atrocious, and now going against a quality D, and balanced team, like West Virginia the Longhorns are in big trouble. The Mountaineers own the best defense in the Big 12, and are 70 YPG superior to the Longhorns porous D. It must be noted Charlie Strongs program has covered only 3 of 12 at home off back to back wins, and have failed to cover 5 straight under those perimeters. 

TEXAS is 0-7 ATS L/7 after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game.Holgorsen is 2-11 ATS L/13 in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 plus yards/game.

Play on West Virginia to cover 1 unit reg selection

The linesmakers have installed Tennessee as big favs. It may have come as shock how big the opening line was, but it was not for me. I always like an edge if I can find one, but laying points here in this tilt is not an issue for me. It must be noted Rockytop is 30-1 SU in this series and 23-8 ATS and are 19-2 ATS L/21 when they are not favored by 17 or more  points.  Stoops is 10-20 ATS  as an underdog as the coach of KENTUCKY losing SU by an average of 16.2 ppg.

Play on the Tennesse Vols in a Blowout win- 1 unit reg selection 

Arizona State (5-4, 2-4) has lost three games in a row and four of five as  injuries ravaged the team at multiple positions and most critically at the quarterback spot, . The Sun Devils played without 10 starters in a loss a 54-35 loss at Oregon in their last game Oct. 29.Sophomore quarterback Manny Wilkins, who led the Sun Devils to 66 points over Texas Tech and 51 against California in September victories, has been in an and out of the lineup while dealing with ankle and shoulder injuries since. He was back in practice Sunday and appears set to return to the starting lineup, and will give a boost to his team this Thursday night vs a Utah side that despite of being a very competitive PAC12 opponent,  but has also been inconsistent. 

Whittingham is 9-26 ATS L/35  as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of UTAH. ARIZONA ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 in home games after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game.

Graham is 9-1 ATS L/10 in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of ARIZONA ST.es are 1-7 ATS as road favorites since joining the conference. The Sun Devils are also 8-3 ATS as conference home dogs and 7-3 ATS with rest.  ASU is also 11-1 ATS L/12 in this series.

Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Everyone loves and underdog and side on the rise like the Oakland Raiders , especially when playing against a defending Super Bowl Champion. The Raiders , thanks to some luck and the arm of star QB Carr have been rolling. However, with expectations so high, Im actually expecting gridiron karma to catchup with the Black and Silver in the Black-hole this Sunday after winning despite of a record 23 penalties. The Raiders are 0-7 ATS L/7 off back to back away games, and 3-13 ATS off back to back wins. Meanwhile, the Broncos will be wide awake this week with the media casting the Raiders as upset candidates in this spot. Denver has won 9 straight in this series, and 18-4 ATS on the road vs the AFC West and a perfect 12-0 ATS vs above .500 or more side. 

Play on Denver to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Tennessee Titans are coming off a spirited home win, but they have not dealt well with success in the past as is evident by going 1-7 ATS L/8 as an underdog off a win. The T Titans a have also lost 14 of their L/18 away games and and failed to cover 13 of them scoring an average of just 17.7 ppg in the process. Tennessee is also 0-8-1 ATS L/9 in this series and 0-5 SU/ATS at San Diego. Meanwhile, the Chargers have over -powered AFC South opponents in the past going 14-2 SU at home and 15-1 ATS. It must also be noted Tennessee has been unable to take advantage of bad defensive teams like the Chargers in the past failing to cover 17 of their L/20 opportunities if that side allowed an average of 350 plus yards per tilt. 

Play on the San Diego Chargers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The San Francisco 49ers are desperate and looking to end a six-game straight up and against the spread losing streak Sunday afternoon when they take on Drew Brees and the surging New Orleans Saints at Levi's Stadium. New Orleans is 3-1 SU in its past four games but are only a  road favorite for just the second time since Week 16 of the 2014 season. The  caveat comes via the Saints ,  2-9 ATS L/11 record as away chalk ,  and  1-8 ATS mark  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5. The Saints  have also had series problems vs the 49ers failing to cover 5 straight meetings.  Meanwhile,  the Niners are off a bye week, and will be fresh for this tilt. Also despite of Drew Brees and company areial exploits of late, they do face a SF pass Defense, that has been in great form this season, allowing just 222 yards per game which ranks them 7th in the league. Bottom line: What Im betting happens today is that   SF will take advantage of the  Saints  29th  ranked   pass D that has allowed 286.7 ypg, and out enough points on the board to make this a scarey road adventure for the more often than not inconsistent Saints . Yes folks the Niners  have the ability to  keep the Saints guessing by opening the lanes up  thanks to the expected  addition of now healthy RB Carlos Hyde who has 6 rushing TDs so far this season in limited action.

 From a league wide perspective, NFL teams Underdogs or pick like SF - after 6 or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are a long term good bet as is evident by a 62% ATS conversion rate using extensive sample size of 216 games.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Jets look to be ressurected from the dead, after winning their L/2 SU/ATS. Meanwhile, the Fins are also winning and took back to back wins. However, the Fish don;t seem to deal well with success going 0-9 ATS as hosts of consecutive wins vs a division opponent coming off a victory and 0-5 ATS L/5 in this series. Finally the Jets are 22-4 ATS as divison dogs against opponents off a ATS win, which includes a sparkling 15-0 ATS mark as 3.5 or more  point pups. From  aleague wide NFL perspective Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Miami - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are just 26-64 ATS .

Play on the NY Jets to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Both TCU and Baylor are off heart breaking losses, and will be primed to bounce back. Baylor now with no chance for a undefeated season may be a little deflated, and in a look ahead sandwich spot, with the mighty Oklahoma Sooners coming up next.  Meanwhile, Gary Patterson HC of the Frogs is no pushover as he is 16-4 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points and has covered 7 in a row under these spread peremiters.  

TCU is 5-1 L/6 ATS here at Baylor and look like solid underdogs in this spot. TCU is 10-1 ATS L/11 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Horned Frogs - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite 41-13 ATS.

Play on TCU to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Both these teams are struggling, and both I am sure look at this game as an opportunity fir a rare win. With that said look for this tilt to be hard fought , and for the points to be golden. Florida Atlantic previous to their last game, lost by 6, 5,2,4 points, so they have been very competitive. It must be noted that the invading Owls own a12-1 ATS mark as a dogs against foes off a loss, like Rice . Also all College Football Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Florida Atlantic  - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game, after scoring 9 points or less last game have bounced back in a huge way covering 24 of the L/29 times.( W.Kentucy beat Florida Atlantic 52-3 last time out)

Play on Florida Atlantic to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Syarcuse head coach Dino Babers is known for running an offensive system that's all about tempo, quarterback development and the passing game and nothing has changed during his tenure at Syracuse so far. Syracuse is well rested coming off an open date with a 500 record and may provide more of test for Clemson the linesmkaers may anticipate. I expect Syracuse spreads it out, and bombs away from the outset. Yes, I know Clemson is the superior side, but 27 plus points is a boatload full of digits , considering the Tigers usually do just enough to get their wins, and with an objective of staying healthy for the long run to their championship aspirtions. The Tigers have won 5 of their 7 games  by 7 points or less, and have had a tenedncy to look inconsistent in the past. From a league wide perspective , College Football Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points like the Cuse- after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 25-7 ATS for a 78% conversion rate on the line.SYRACUSE is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing or less  7.5 yards per return. CLEMSON is 1-12 ATS L/13 after playing 3 straight conference games.CLEMSON is 0-7 ATS L/7 in weeks 10 through 13 dating back 3 seasons. Syracuse has won the L/2 meetings in this series SU. 

Syracuse to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Demon Deacons signal-caller Clawson is completing just 54.9 percent of his throws with just four touchdowns against seven interceptions on the season, thats not a good omen against a Virginia defense that is improving .I'm a fan of HC Mendenhall and I can see his team is getting better as his time on the sideliness progresses forward as was evident against  Louisville last time out in a 32-25 loss.  Virginia is 7-0 ATS L/7 on the road. Also from a league wide trends perspective - It must be noted that  Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Cavaliers  - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a lower tier team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 32-12 L/44 oportunities for a 73% conversion rate.

Play on Virginia to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Im not a big fan of  Charlie Strong football and it seems to me more often than not hes his own worst enemy. It  also seems hes on the hot seat on a consistent basis, and despite of talent level and top tier recruiting nothing seems come easy for this Longhorns football program of late, with close losses and defeats becoming the norm. After an emotional win vs Baylor (35-34) last time out in  a  game the Horns were fortunate to win, after being on the wrong side of the stats sheet, they now have the tall task as being listed as favorites on the road against an explosive Texas Tech side behind QB Mahomes ( expected to play and upgraded for Saturday). HC Strong of Texas has failed to cover 13 of his L/20 after a SU/aTS win and 3-7 ATS if that team was 5-0 or better. So what Im saying here is that , not even a  Matthew Mcconaughey motivational speech and heart thumping ritual song ie ( Wolf of Wall Street) will save the Horns or Strong from themselves.

Play on Texas Tech to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Notre Dame took advantage of a emotionally downtrodden Miami Fl side last week, and took a  20-0 lead vs the Canes before showing their 2016 inconsitencies allowing 27 unanswered points . Than  finally the football gods allowed them an opportunity for redemption by getting a late FG to win a ugly 30-27 event. Now Notre Dame 4-11 ATS off a win and 0-7 ATS L/7 on a neutral or home field under those peremiters situation will now  take on Navys triple option offense, that has gained more than 1148 yards in their L/2 games.

Play on Navy to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Boise State perfect season is over after last weeks heart breaking loss and now a hang over is at hand, against a San Jose State team that has the ability on any given Sunday to hang with a deflated opponent. It must be noted the Broncos are just 2-17 ATS L/19 as a conference  favorite of more than 15 points on the Blue Carpet and have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 in a week day game. And yes I know how bad a D, the Spartans have, but Boise State has not exactly been lights out against sides like this recently going,  0-7 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more pass yards per attempt .

Play on San Jose State to cover 1 unit reg selection 

QB Rush has been the catalyst behind the  Chippewas’ offense this season. The Charlotte Mich., native has already thrown for 2,533 yards and 21 touchdowns -  he owns two 300-yard passing games and he shelled Virginia for 402 yards in September. The Chippewas enter this game 25th in the FBS in passing yards per game at 283.4  and will be Im betting be able to keep pace with a suddently explosive Miami O offense.  The Chippewas’ defense is vastly under rated and some times disrepsected, but that would be a mistake, and Im betting will be the difference maker when all the chips are down. The unit is tied for second in the FBS in defensive touchdowns with four. Central Michigan’s defense has 11 interceptions (tied 13th in the nation), with nine of those coming via  the secondary -  Central Michigan,according to my own power rankings is the superior  side and has been more consistent throughout the course of the season.  

Play on Central Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection LATE STEAM 

Although the Vikings defense appears to have a decisive edge against the Bears offense, the same does not hold true on the opposite side of the ball. Minnesota is No. 31 in total offense with 299.2 yards per game, and Chicago is No. 12 in total defense with 350.4 yards allowed per game. According to my own data this game should me much closerthan the linesmakers estimate, and I will not be surprised if the Bad News Bears, give causaul NFL watchers some surprising headlines come Tuesday morning. The Vikings are  8-22 ATS L/30 in road games vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game.CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS L/6 after 3 or more consecutive losses. 

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Green Bay Packers Aaron Rogers broke the 300 yard plaeau last time out after 15 straight games and looks to be back in tune ,The Packers offense piled up 406 yards and controlling the ball for almost 40 minutes against Chicago.Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense ranks 27th in scoring, 26th in yards allowed and 31st in passing yards allowed.Matt Ryan has failed to cover 5 straight vs NFC North opponents. Last year HC Quinn and company started out 5-0 before finsihing 3-8 run and after back to back losses it loooks like the Falcons are headed in that direction again. after a 4-1 start

.ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. ATLANTA is 1-10 ATS L/10 as a favorite. 

Play on the Green Packers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Hawaii has put alot of air miles on their bodies so far this season, and after pulling off the upset of Air force last week come home on tired legs and in a letdown scenario. Meanwhile, New Mexico owns the No.1 rush offense in the country that allows opposing  run offenses to cruise to 259 ypg . New Mexico gets the nod.  Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW MEXICO) - good rushing team - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 30-8 ATS L/38 opportunities.NEW MEXICO is 20-8 ATS ( in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play. HAWAII is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games after playing 2 straight conference games. HAWAII is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest. New Mexico has won 6 straight meetings in this series and 3-0 L/3 visits to Hawaii. 

New Mexico to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Florida State is quietly playing better  football of late, allowing just one TD in their L/6 quarters of play. Now in good form and being pegged as home underdogs vs Clemson, I feel strongly about pulling the trigger and backing them as home pups in a place where they have won 23 of their l/24 games. Consdering Clemson is just 0-6 ATS as road favorite of less than a TD, my recommendation here is to take the points with the host puppies. 

Florida State to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Utep barely got a win last week in a exhausting 5 OT affair vs UTSA. Now  beat up and in an emotional letdowns scenario, they go against a Dominion side fresh off a humiliating loss to explosive Western Kentucky. With redemption a key motivator here this week for a visitor with a chip on their shoulders the home side is in trouble. It must be noted that UTEP has allowed an average of 39.2 ppg at home this season. College Football underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTEP) - a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record 17-46 ATS L/63.UTEP is 4-17 ATS  in home games after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games.

Old Dominion to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Tigers are coming off an impressive 56-3 dismantling of an Arkansas team that dealt the Rebels a 34-30 setback the week before. Auburn averaged 9.5 ypc on the ground last time out.  Thats not a good omen for a Ole Miss side that ranks  113th out of 128 FBS teams against the run and don't rank any better than 70th nationally in pass defense, total defense or scoring defense. Auburns D allows just 14 ppg. This is a mismatch based on current perfromances and worth a wager on the visitor as short chalk. Malzahn is 9-0 ATS L/9 after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread and is s 10-1 ATS  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse like Ole Miss. 

Play on Auburn to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Badgers are brusied and battered after taking on three straight tough opponents, Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa.  Today against a under appreciated 7-0 Nebraska side, that has covered 4 of their L/5 as conference dog of 8 points or less Wisconsin is at a disadvantage. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WISCONSIN) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 20-43 ATS L/46 opportunities. Nebraskas coach Riley is 24-7 ATS in road games in October games in all games he has coached and is 9-1 ATS  in road games vs. mistake free teams like Wisconsin - 42 or less penalty yards per game in all games.

Play on  Nebraska to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Texas Techs offense is so explosive its rediculous. I know their D, is atrocious, but after their 66-59 loss last week to Oklahoma, Im betting facing the Frogs offense wont be such a big task. It must also be noted TCUs offense has been stagnant of late, scoring 24 points vs a rebuilding Kansas program, and scoring just 10 points vs W.Virginia las t week, while losing 3 straight stat sheet battles. Im betting the Frogs weak favorites vs a Texas Tech side that is offensively tenacious and  hungry. TCU is 0-6 ATS  when playing on a Saturday this season.TEXAS TECH is 8-0 ATS off 2 straight losses against conference rivals and is 21-9 ATS L/30 off a home loss against a conference rival.

Texas Tech to cover 1 unit reg selection

The unbeaten and fourth-ranked Washington Huskies are enjoying their best ranking since the end of the 2000 season, but they are heading into what their coach calls their toughest test of the season.Utah senior running back Joe Williams Im betting is the catalyst this week for the Utes,  as he is coming out of a five-week retirement due to injuries, rushing for 179 yards against the Beavers and a school-record 332 vs. the Bruins. The coaching staff convinced him to come back after other injuries ravaged the position.UTAH is 36-19 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 pointsUtah is 7-1 this year and their only loss came by 5 points at California this season, and game they had a chance to win late. It must be noted that HC Whittingham in 72 games has only lost 6 times by 10 or more points in Salt Lake City. The Utes are 12-3 ATS as double-digit dogs – 3-0 SU the last three –including 3-0 ATS at home.

Play on Utah to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Baylor has yet to be tested this season, and now they go against a desperate Texas team that is trying ressurrect their season from a scrape heap of over estimated enthusiasm. Texas junior running back D'Onta Foreman has been a key cog in the Longhorns' offense and ranks third in the country with an average of 142.5 rushing yards per game. Foreman has carried the ball 141 times for 855 yards (11th nationally) and eight touchdowns, and will be the key catalyst behind what I am betting will be a Texas cover at home. TEXAS is 16-5 ATS L/21 vs. excellent passing defenses allowing 5.25 or less passing yards/att. Baylor has yet to be tested this season, and now they go against a desperate Texas team that is trying ressurrect their season from a scrape heap of over estimated enthusiasm. ghorns' offense and ranks third in the country with an average of 142.5 rushing yards per game. Foreman has carried the ball 141 times for 855 yards (11th nationally) and eight touchdowns, and will be the key catalyst behind what I am betting will be a Texas cover at home. TEXAS is 16-5 ATS L/21 vs. excellent passing defenses allowing 5.25 or less passing yards/att. 

Baylor to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Seven turnovers doomed Army last week vs North Texas. My own projections tell me this a better team than many might expect and much better than they showed us last week. This week, I expect they take care of the ball and get us a cover and possible upset vs a Wake Forest side that just does not float my boat. 

Underdogs like Army of 3.5 to 10 points - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games are 37-11 ATS L/48 opportunities.WAKE FOREST is 2-11 ATS  in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest .

Army to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Penn State is off a huge win vs Ohio State last week, and now will be in a monumental letdown spot. Considering Penn State has not covered in 8 straight road games  and 0-5-1 ATS as road favorites and as a program going back 3 decades have failed to cover 3 straight times after a home underdog win. Meanwhile, Purdue looked good last week in a hard fought loss to Nebraska, and look more motivated now that fired HC Darrell Hazel is gone. 

Purdue to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Kentucky impressed me last week, getting a win last week vs a Mississippi State side that has won the previous 7 tilts against them. The wildcats have now won 4 of their L/5 games, and have a very good chance of pulling off another underdog win this week vs a Missouri side, that is less than impressive this season.  The Tigers are on  a3-0 ATSSU run and 3-11 SU L/14 vs opposition football teams and allowing an ugly 518 ypg and 35 points per game this season, and very much look like fade material. A road team like Kentucky - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game. 

Play on the Kentucky Wildcats to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Central Michigan are a top tier MAC side, but Kent state are no pushovers with 17 returning starters on the roster. I know th Golden Flashes own a sub par 2-6 record, but their D, is raked 29th in the nation and must not be ignored when looking at DD spreads. After playing their hearts out vs Toldeo last week in a 31-17 loss, Im betting the Chips are in a letdown scenario and ripe for the upset. With that saidd, lets take the boatload full of points . 

Play on Kent State to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Lousiville is a great team, but we are starting to get into the outer limits of   their favorite status with this spread. I know impresive wins are a must now for the Cardinal after losing to Clemson earlier this season. However, thats alot of pressure and I doubt very highly Virginia would just lie down and die here at home in what is a great opportunity for the program to spring a upset. The Cavs have covered 4 of their L/5 as DD home dogs, and get my nod here as huge home doggies. 

Virginia to cover 1 unit reg selection 

San Diego State is continuing to impress me with a solid D that is allowing just 17.6 ppg on the seaspn and just 285.7 ypg. Thats not a good omen for a Utah state side that ranks 81st in offense . It must aso be noted that the Aggies are a ugly 7-31-1 ATS in home losses, and have failed to cover their L/10 if they lose. I really like SD State SU, here, and barring a minor miracle the Aztecs should easily win and more importantly cover. 

SAN DIEGO ST is 9-2 ATS L/11 against conference opponents with the average margin of their wins coming by 22.8 ppg. Long is 15-4 ATS L/19 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in all games he has coached with the average margin of victory coming by 10.2 ppg. Road favorites like San Diego State  of 3.5 to 10 points after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team have cashed 30 of the L/37 times.

San Diego State to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Jaguars are allowing 27 points per game, putting pressure on an offense that hasn't been able to keep pace and things don't look to get much better vs a Tennessee side with a top tier QB Marcus Mariota at the heelm of the offense. Tennessee blew a chance to make it 3 straight wins last week vs Indianapolis, but will primed for redemption tonight. I know the Titans have some nasty ATS numbers in their data base, but all good and bad numbers usually revert back to their norms, so those ATS numbers don't bother me when looking at handicapping this tilt. The Titans are however, 6-1 ATS L/7 Thursday night games and a perfect 5-0 ATS off a loss. 

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Historically speaking,  this Pitt  football program has a leg up on Virginia Tech, as the Panthers are winners of four consecutive meetings at Heinz Field and six of the previous seven. It seems that this long standing rivalry always brings out the best in the Panthers, no matter how good or bad they are doing at the time of their clashes. I know the Hokies run game is progressing upward quickly, as was evident against Miami last week in a lopsided win, but   against a Pitt defense that’s been as stingy as any in the ACC in the run game, allowing only 96.6 yards per game, the fifth best mark nationally, their in deeper than many might now think.  Piitsburgh is 5-0 ATS L/5 at home in this series all 5 as underdogs. PITTSBURGH is 15-4 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points  or more over a conference rival, which happened against Virginia last week.

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Earlier this month, the Atlanta Falcons battled last season's Super Bowl teams in back-to-back weeks and emerged with two victories and are a early season surprise. My feeling is that the Falcons are over rated, yes improved, but over rated especially considering todays line. Atlanta is tied for 26th in pass defense, yielding 285.3 yards per game, and will have their hand full with the Chargers Drew Brees and company. Yes, Matt Ryan the Atlanta Falcons QB is a stud, but its not like he has not crashed and burned before, when many least expect it. I also know, that Atlanta has not faired well recently vs bad defenses, 3-11 ATS L/14 vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. 
The average score was ATLANTA 18.5, OPPONENT 21.3 - ( SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game and is 6-0 ATS L/6 as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS L/10 as a favorite and 2-15 ATS L/17 in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 

Play on the SD Chargers to cover 1 unit reg selection

TB beat Carolina last week 17-14 as 6 point dogs. It must than be noted Any team in the NFL - off a win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more point like TB are 6-26 ATS.TAMPA BAY is 2-12 ATS L/14 off a win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more point . The 49ers have won 6 of the L/7 here in SF SU. 

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Kansas City has proven to be wildly inconsistent so far this season. Last week they came off a bye and owned the Oakland Raiders in a lopsided 16 point win. Just a couple of weeks ago the Chiefs are got clobbered by the Pittsburgh Steelers losing by 29 points. KC now goes against a New Orleans team that is the league's top passing unit, with an average of 335.4 yards per game from Brees to a top tier of  receivers, led by Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead and rookie Michael Thomas.The Saints have won two straight games and  are averaging 413.4 yards per game and rank No. 2 in the league behind only Atlanta. With KCs d, with alot of banged up players, they look vulnerable.  

From a league wide perspective: Home teams like KC - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are just 36-71 ATS.NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS L/14 as an underdog.

Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Fresno State enters this game having lost 15 of his L/17 games against FBS opponents and when they lose SU, from a historical stand point are 8-47 ATS L/55 games. Utah state needs a win badly, and after a week off to prepare for this game I expect they will crush their lowly opponent . Utah State is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a bye. UTAH ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 in home games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game which happened last time out. 


Play on the Utah State to cover 1 unit reg selection

OIe Miss, coming off a 34-30 loss to Arkansas that dropped it to 1-3 against ranked opponents, are a inconsistent side. Im betting on quarterback Chad Kelly and company react with alot of energy to the loss at Arkansas that was sealed when he lost a fumble on the Rebels' final drive, ending hopes for a comeback win.I think this is when you find out a lot about yourself, a lot about your team, and a lot about your kids," Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze said I couldn't agree with him more. Ole Miss has some good character players and they will be in this game. Back to back wins vs Missouri and southern Miss are not impressive enough opponents to make me think their current 2-0 run under coach Orgeron is stimulus for this program to get back on track. Note: LSU is 1-10 ATS L/11 after playing at conference game at home. Ole Miss is 9-1 ATS L/10 at Baton Rouge. 

Play on Ole Miss to cover 1 unit reg selection

We have revenge on board for Texas Tech, against Oklahoma for last seasons 63-27 beat down. Last week Tech was clobbered and thoroughly embarrassed by West Virginia not scoring 50 points for the first time all and now their going to want some redemption. Texas Tech has covered 7 straight, when getting 5 or more points as home pups. TEXAS TECH is also 7-0 ATS L/7 off 2 straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more over the last few seasons. 

Texas Tech to cover 1 unit reg selection

After getting shutout by App State last week, UL Lafayette will be primed to beat up on a team they have owned over the last three seasons, winning each game by 3 or more Tds. Texas State has been out stated in 16 of their L/17 games overall and Im betting will once again be on the wrong side of the score sheet again. 

Play on UL Lafayette to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Washington has a very high rating, but I still believe their little over rated with three of their wins coming against Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State . Meanwhile, Oregon State has played admirably of late, upsetting California and losing to Utah by just 5 points.  It must also be noted that  HC Gary Anderson teams are 7-0 ATS of more than 23 points as they are here today. Also another interesting anomaly or trend shows that Washington is 0-10 SU week 7 record. Oregon State has the ability to cover this number. 

Play on Oregon state to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Arkansas HC Bielema is 6-0 ATS L/6 in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 and s 15-4 ATS L/19 vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. Arkansas coach Bret Bielema is 13 of 16 ATS as a dog off a SUATS win in his career, including 11-1 ATS as a underdog of 10 or less points.

Arkansas to cover 1 unit reg selection

My own projections say this contest should be closer to a -3 line rather than the 7 we are getting. Big time value is available here with Utah to cover.UTAH is 36-13 ATS versus poor rushing teams - averaging 120 or less rushing yards/game and is 35-19 ATS L/54 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.UCLA is 2-12 ATS L/14 in games played on a grass field.

Play on Utah to cover 1 unit reg selection

West Virginia, which lost nine starters from last year's defensive unit and arguably its best player in free safety Dravon Askew-Henry in fall camp to a torn ACL, has utilized the odd 3-3-5 stack and disguised its blitzing to create problems for opposing offenses. But now 6 games in you can bet some top tier teams like TCU , know what they have to do to knock this group down a notch. "You have to make plays and tackle in space, and they were able to do that,"  HC Patterson said. "They got after Patrick (Mahomes II), who is a really good quarterback. They have great skill players."You have to be able to run the ball against them. Two years ago, we had to run the football to win. If you can't, you're going to get yourself in a lot of trouble." With that siad, Im a big fan of Pattersons, and with the extra week of rest to prepare for this game Im betting he has his Frgs ready to perform. Note: TCU is a perfect 13-0 ATS entering a game off a bye. 

TCU is 7-0 ATS L/7 versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game.W VIRGINIA is 3-12 ATS L/15 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.

Play on TCU to cover 1 unit reg selection