5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Jazz +7
I'll gladly take the generous amount of points here as I expect Game 2 to go right down to the wire with the Jazz having an excellent opportunity to win this one outright. I know Utah is now without Mehmet Okur in addition to Andrei Kirilenko, but Okur isn't a big loss on the defensive end, and that's where you'll see huge improvement from Utah tonight. The numbers don't lie: Utah is 16-4 ATS off a road loss this season, holding its opponents to just 99.3 points in these spots, 13-1 ATS after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points this season, holding its opponents to just 94.8 points in these situations, 8-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season, only allowing 99.2 points in these spots and 17-5 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season, clamping down to only give up 98.5 points in these spots. The Jazz are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points and 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. loss period. Utah is one of the very best bounce back teams in the NBA because of the way they up their intensity on defense following a loss, and I'll pound them in this bounce back spot tonight.

3* Game 2 SMASH (TNT) on Bulls +10.5
The Bulls were beaten in Game 1, but they gained a lot of confidence by clawing their way back from a 22-point deficit to cut the lead to just 7 points. A big key to keeping this one within the number tonight is keeping Cleveland off the offensive boards. The Cavs came up with 13 offensive boards, which led to easy baskets, in Saturday's win. Don't expect there to be such a large rebounding discrepancy tonight. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Cavaliers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Bet the Bulls.

3* NBA Playoffs *Crunch Time Bailout* (ESPN) on Trail Blazers +8
The Blazers are without Brandon Roy, but I expect them to be in this game because of how solid they are on the defensive end. The fact that the total is only set at 204 tells me that odds makers feel the Blazers' defense will have an impact on this game as well. The Trail Blazers are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog. The Blazers are also 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Blazers are only allowing 96 ppg on the road this season. I look for this suffocating "D" to help the Blazers keep this one within the number.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* Blowout on Lakers -7.5
Look for the Lakers to send a message to the Thunder with a blowout win in Game 1. These two teams last faced off March 26th and the Lakers were crushed 75-91. That loss will serve as a motivator today. In fact, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where they scored less than 85 points, off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite, are 22-4 ATS since 1996, including 9-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. And teams in this situation are winning by 13.1 points on average. The playoffs are a different animal, something the experienced Lakers will be ready for and the youthful Thunder will not. Lay the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* Blowout on Hawks -8.5
Atlanta has gained some nice playoff experience the last couple years, and now it's ready to make a serious run at the Eastern Conference title. Last year's exit, an ugly 4-game sweep at the hand of Cleveland, will be the driving force this time around. Milwaukee is at a big disadvantage in the talent and depth department with starting center Andrew Bogut going down. The Hawks certainly have the athletes to really take advantage of his absence. The youth of Brandon Jennings will show in this series as well. The youngster is no doubt talented, but he still has a lot to learn about shot selection and running a team. The favorite is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Bucks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog. The Hawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Lay the points.

3* SMASH on Cavs -11
The Bulls did well to make the playoffs, but this is a team primed for an early exit. Chicago is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, and that will make them very easy to guard. The Cavs can really pack it in to stop penetration because the Bulls really don't have anybody that can stretch the floor consistently. We saw the Cavs dominate in the early rounds against lesser opponents in last year's playoffs and I expect no different this time around. The Cavaliers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 11.0 or more points. The Cavaliers are also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 playoff games as a favorite. The Bulls are just 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Cleveland. Take the Cavs.

3* NBA Regular Season Finale *BEST BET* on Wizards +2
Indiana has played well down the stretch, but motivation will likely be a big issue tonight. The Pacers have been eliminated from the playoffs, and they have already defeated the Wizards 3 times this season. Washington, meanwhile, should be motivated as it looks to avoid the season sweep. We'll gladly take the points here when you consider that the Wizards lost by just 1 in this season's only other home meeting with the Pacers. It is certainly worth noting that the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. It is also worth noting that Washington is on a 17-5 ATS run in home games after having lost 20 or more of their last 25 games, winning in these spots by an average score of 99.3 to 95.7. Indiana is a terrible 9-31 on the road this season, and I expect their road struggles to continue in this season finale.

3* NBA on TNT *Crunch Time Bailout* on Nuggets +6.5
A win clinches the Northwest Division title and ties a franchise high in wins for Denver. It also secures the Nuggets at least the No. 3 spot so there is plenty to play for in their season finale. Phoenix has won the last 2 in this series by double digits so the Nuggets would love to pay the Suns back here as well. The Nuggets are 5-1-3 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Denver is also is 16-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 103.9 to 100.9. Take Denver and the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Bulls -5.5
If the Bulls win out, they are in the playoffs. Boston's playoff fate has already been sealed as Atlanta's win over the Bucks Monday night inked the team into the No. 4 seed. So there's really nothing for the Celtics to play for tonight while the Bulls have everything to play for. I expect Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce both to play limited minutes, if at all, as Boston gears up for the postseason. The Bulls are an impressive 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points and 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games following an ATS win. Meanwhile, the Celtics are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a win of more than 10 points, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following am ATS win. Bet the Bulls.

5* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +2
If the Thunder have any hope of avoiding the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs, they need to win tonight. As if this isn't enough motivation, the Thunder lost to the lowly Warriors Sunday. Besides motivation, OKC catches a big break with Brandon Roy not expected to play tonight. This also has the look of a letdown spot for Portland after such an emotional win over the Lakers Sunday. OKC is a tremendous 25-7 ATS after a game where it failed to cover the spread this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 104.4 to 97.7. The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog period. The Trail Blazers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Thunder.

3* SMASH on Raptors +1
Plain and simple, the Raptors must win or they will be eliminated from the playoffs. I know they have struggled without Bosh, but playing to keep their playoff hopes alive against the lowly Pistons should be enough to will them to victory here. The Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Toronto has had Detroit's number with 3 wins against the Pistons already this season, and I look for the Raptors to make it a clean sweep. Take the Raptors.

5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Blazers +4 (line of -2 in system was an error) With home court in the Western Conference already wrapped up, the Lakers can afford to continue to rest Kobe Bryant. If he does play, it won't be big minutes. This game means a lot more to the Blazers as they want to keep winning to avoid the No. 8 spot and the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs. The Lakers would like to avoid Portland in the playoffs too as they have lost 9 of their last 10 at the Rose Garden. The Lakers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. Pound Portland.

5* 2010 NBA Game of the Year on Celtics +2
I went against the Celtics last night with the 11.5-point underdog Wizards, who handed Bean Town a 10 point loss. The Celtics trailed by as many as 28 points. This is a veteran team with 3 Hall of Famers, and it was incredibly embarrassed last night. Look for the Celtics to save face by responding in a big way in Milwaukee. Boston should be further motivated by a 2-point defeat it suffered in Milwaukee last month. Motivation is a big part of this play, but the other big part has to do with the interior matchups. The Bucks are without arguably their best player, Andrew Bogut, and that opens things up for Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins to both have their way down low. I just can't see the Bucks overcoming the loss of Bogut in this game when you consider that he is averaging 25.0 points and 15.5 rebounds against the Celtics this season. He had 25 points and 17 rebounds in Milwaukee's 86-84 victory March 9. That's a lot of points and rebounds to make up for and I just don't see it getting done. While Boston is a veteran team, it has actually been quite successful when playing without any rest. In fact, the Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on zero days rest. This team has been a cash cow in the road dog role too. The Celtics are 52-25-2 ATS in their last 79 games as a road underdog and 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Look for Boston to make a statement with a big win tonight.

5* Friday NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +4
Portland is playing well, but I give the edge to the Mavs in this highly motivated spot tonight. With a win, and a Spurs loss, the Mavs can clinch the Southwest Division. Plus, they are still battling for the No. 2 seed in the West. In addition, the Mavs have lost all 3 prior meetings to the Blazers this season so they will be very hungry to pay Portland back. The underdog has dominated this matchup. In fact, the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Trail Blazers are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We'll take the Mavs and the points.

3* Friday Night NBA SMASH on Wizards +11.5
After getting embarrassed by Orlando Wednesday, look for the Wizards to bounce back strong and take Boston down to the wire tonight. The last 4 meetings in this series have been decided by 11 or fewer points with 2 of those being decided by 3 or less. Plus, Boston is only winning by an average of 4.1 points at home this season. The Celtics are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. I'll go one step further. Boston is 4-17 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season, only winning in these spots by 7.9 points on average. The total odds makers have set tells us they are expecting a rather low scoring game. This bodes well for us also as Boston is just 6-16 ATS in home games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. The Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the points.

5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Lakers +2
This is a tough spot for Denver playing back-to-back against a well-rested Lakers team that will be hungry after getting absolutely embarrassed by the Spurs Sunday. Any time you catch the Lakers in the underdog role, they are worth a look. In fact, they are 29-14-2 ATS in their last 45 games as a road underdog. Furthermore, the Lakers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. In other words, this is a team that typically responds well. The Nuggets have been a fool's gold favorite as they are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Plus, they are only 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games playing on zero day's rest. With the Nuggets being a team the Lakers could end up seeing in the playoffs again, look for LA to send a message that it is clearly the best in the West tonight.

5* ESPN Game of the Year on Suns -6.5
The Spurs were lucky to come away with a win in Sacramento last night, but they will have no such luck on their side tonight. Tony Parker was cleared to play a bit sooner than expected, but he is not expected to play big minutes. This proves crucial here since George Hill is out injured. Without an experienced point guard to help the Spurs control the flow of the game, there will be nothing standing in the way of a rested Suns team making this one a track meet. This veteran Spurs team has struggled in back-to-backs to begin with and will certainly have its work cut out for itself against the most potent offensive team in the NBA. You have to love the fact that history is strongly on our side. Here's what I mean: plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points playing on back-to-back days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are an impressive 71-32 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Spurs have played a lot of games in few days while the Suns haven't played since Saturday and this should catch up with San Antonio here. Plus, Phoenix is 15-3 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game, in the 2nd half of the season this season, winning in these spots by 10.1 points on average. The Suns are also an unbeaten 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Pound the Suns.

3* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Nets +8
Odds makers have made the mistake of overvaluing the Bucks tonight. I expect the Bucks to come out flat after clinching a playoff spot with a win over the Bulls last night. New Jersey is playing its best basketball of the season, having won 4 of its last 7 games, and it will have a big advantage on the interior tonight. The Bulls aren't a team that gets much interior scoring so Milwaukee did not miss Andrew Bogut as much in last night's game. They will tonight. Nets center Brook Lopez leads the team in scoring and he should be poised for a big game without Bogut inside for Milwaukee. The Nets haven't played since Sunday so they will be fresh. Plus, they should be very hungry to pay back a team that has embarrassed them 3 times this season. Odds makers have made a habit out of overvaluing opponents that the Nets have played lately. As a result, the Nets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Plus, the Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the points with the Nets here.

5* Never Lost Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +6.5
The San Antonio Spurs were already playing without All-Star point guard Tony Parker. Now, they'll be playing without his replacement tonight. George Hill is expected to miss at least two games. He has averaged 15.8 points in 41 games as a starter this season. Now Manu Ginobli is really the only guy San Antonio has that can create for himself and others, and this has coach Popovich worried. "I'm a little worried about everything that's coming up now without George," coach Popovich said. "It's going to be difficult to ... have Manu (Ginobili) play the point in all these games coming up. We'll have to figure something out." It's likely they won't have that "something" figured out tonight. Plus, after a huge win over the Lakers to secure a playoff spot, this one has letdown written all over it. Kings Rookie of the Year candidate Tyreke Evans is coming off one of his worst performances, shooting just 2 of 12 and finishing with six points. Expect a big bounce back game from him tonight. San Antonio is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 88.5 to 96.8. The Kings have either won, or lost by 3 or fewer points in their last 5 home games against the Spurs. We'll take the points tonight.

4* Major NBA Motivational Mismatch on Jazz -5.5
I'll back the Jazz in an extremely motivated spot tonight. Utah is well rested, and it will be out for blood after enduring an embarrassing loss to the Lakers Friday night. Furthermore, the Jazz are 0-3 against the Thunder this season so they are going to want this one badly. Here's the key: Plays on home favorites in a triple revenge situation - 3 straight losses vs. an opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 75-36 ATS since 1996, including a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. The team out for revenge is winning by 7.6 points on average in these spots so I think we are getting some decent value with this line. The Jazz are the best bounce back team in the NBA at 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. loss. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points. Bet Utah tonight.

3* SMASH on Raptors +7
The Cavs have nothing to play for at this point with home court already locked up throughout the playoffs. Now, it's time to decrease the minutes of the starters to make sure they enter the playoffs fresh. This bodes well for the Raptors tonight as they will be extremely motivated to win with the Bulls right on their tail for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the points.

5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* on T-Wolves +12
This is a big letdown spot for OKC after such a big win over the Mavs last night to clinch a playoff spot. Plus, the T-Wolves will be extremely motivated after getting crushed by OKC by 17 points the last time these two teams faced off. That lopsided affair was certainly out of the ordinary as Minnesota had either won or lost by 7 or fewer points in the 8 previous meetings. Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, with a losing record, are 104-56 ATS the last 5 seasons, including 7-3 ATS this season. Plus, Minnesota is 20-8 ATS in road games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, only losing in these spots by 7.3 points on average. Lastly, the Timberwolves are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. We

3* NBA Marquee Matchup (ABC) on Spurs +6
The Lakers just defeated the Spurs in San Antonio by 9 points on March 24th so the Spurs will be out for revenge here. San Antonio has been playing really good basketball and will not be lacking any confidence after crushing the Magic by double digits. The Spurs seem to feed off of strong performances. In fact, they are 14-5 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 103.4 to 94.8. In addition, the Lakers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win, 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. The Spurs are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog while the Lakers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite. We

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Mavs -3
The Mavericks have won nine straight in the series at home by an average of 11.7 points, and I look for this domination to continue tonight. The Mavs are coming off an embarrassing home blowout loss to the Magic, and the Thunder beat them convincingly by 13 points the last time these teams faced off. Those two losses should serve as plenty of motivation tonight. In fact, the Mavericks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Mavericks are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. I'll lay the points with the Mavs here.

3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Lakers -4
This game reminds me a lot of last night's situation with the Nuggets and the Blazers. We played on the Nuggets -5 at home against the red hot Blazers even though the Nuggets had been struggling on the road, and it paid off. Enough was enough. The Nuggets fed off the energy of their home crowd and made a statement with a blowout win. I look for LA to do the same tonight against a Jazz team they have defeated 13 straight times at home. Kobe is fed up with how the team has been playing and I expect him to put them on his back this evening. The Jazz are just 3-10 ATS in the last 13 road meetings with the Lakers. The Lakers are 32-5 at home where they are winning by 9.4 ppg. Off an embarrassing loss to the Hawks, look for them to respond here.

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Hawks +5.5
The Hawks are extremely confident heading into this one after a convincing win over the Lakers. After getting punished in the playoffs by Cleveland last season, the Hawks have played the Cavs tough in two meetings this season but they have come up short in each. Look for the third time to be the charm for the Hawks tonight. The Cavs have struggled without Anderson Varejao, who won't be at full strength if he does go tonight. He is their energy guy and they have looked lethargic at times in each of their last two games without him in the lineup. Atlanta has played up to the level of its competition this season. In fact, it is 11-2 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season, defeating these teams by an average score of 96.7 to 91.2. The Hawks are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Cavaliers are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Hawks and the points tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Nuggets -5
It's gut check time for the Nuggets tonight. They return home after a 5-game road trip where they were brutal and I fully expect them to make a statement. The Nuggets are 30-6 at home on the season where they are winning by 9.4 points on average. The home team has dominated this matchup to the tune of 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Plus, the Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Denver and 10-25-1 ATS in the last 36 meetings overall. The Nuggets are 52-25-3 ATS in their last 80 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 38-15-2 ATS in their last 55 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Lay the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Magic -1
I'll take the rested Magic in this revenge spot against a Mavs team feeling the effects of a tough overtime game in Memphis last night. After losing to the Mavs at home in the last meeting, the Magic will be ready to return the favor here. The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Mavericks are an atrocious 5-23 ATS in their last 28 Thursday games and a pathetic 5-26-1 ATS in their last 32 home games. The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the Magic are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Dallas. Take Orlando.

3* NBA Motivational Mismatch on Celtics -3
Even though Paul Pierce is questionable tonight, I still think the Celtics will be motivated enough to get the job done in this spot regardless if he plays. The good news is that Boston will get Kendrick Perkins back. Boston just endured one of its worst defeats of the season at the hands of San Antonio Sunday. The Spurs held the Celtics to a season low 73 points in that contest. If that doesn't get Boston motivated, nothing will. I firmly believe the Celtics will show up ready to put a hurtin' on the Thunder tonight. OKC just played last night so Boston will certainly have the advantage in terms of fresh legs. It is worth noting that the Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 0 days rest. The Thunder have dropped 4 in a row ATS in this series and are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 trips to Boston. Also, plays on home teams off an upset loss by 15 points or more, playing with 2 days rest, are 27-6 ATS the last 5 seasons, including 18-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Teams in this situation are winning by 9.6 points on average. Take Boston.

4* Major NBA Blowout of the Week on Raptors -9.5
The Clippers are ready to call it a season. They have reduced the minutes of All-Star Chris Kaman to open up playing time for some of the younger guys. Plus, Baron Davis is expected to miss the next two games with back spasms. Once Camby was traded away, it sent a message to the team that management was already planning ahead for next season. As a result, the Clippers have lost 12 of their last 14 games, and 10 of those losses have come by 10 or more points. The Raptors will be the more motivated team this evening as they look to distance themselves from the Bulls in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Even at full strength, the Raptors are a team that the Clippers have really struggled against. Toronto has won the last 3 meetings by scores of 97-75, 100-76 and 104-89. The Clippers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Toronto. Take the Raptors.

3* Tuesday Night NBA SMASH on Bulls +3.5
The Bulls have had Phoenix's number. Why? Because the young athletic Derrick Rose has been a nightmare matchup for Steve Nash. In 3 straight double digits wins over the Suns, with 2 of those even coming in Phoenix, Rose has held Nash to just 9.7 points and 7.3 assists while forcing him into an average of 5.0 turnovers. The Bulls will be extremely motivated tonight as they are battling the Raptors for the final playoff spot in the East. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. With Nash facing a tough matchup, and not at 100 percent, I look for the Bulls, who are fighting for the playoffs, to get the job done tonight.

3* Monday NBA *Underdog Shocker* on Nets +8.5
This is a huge letdown spot for the Spurs after a pair of big time wins over Cleveland and Boston. In fact, San Antonio is 0-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season, actually losing in these spots by an average score of 89.1 to 97.7. The Spurs are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The Nets need one victory in their final nine games to avoid matching the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers for the worst record in NBA history so I expect them to really play hard tonight, especially after such a poor performance Saturday. I would not be surprised if New Jersey wins this one outright so we'll take the points.

3* NBA Crunch Time Bailout on LA Clippers -5
It was already going to be difficult for the Warriors to play this back-to-back against a rested Clippers squad, but it will likely be even more difficult as Monte Ellis is listed as doubtful. Plus, this one is personal for the Clippers, who were embarrassed by 30 points the last time these teams faced off last month. The Warriors haven't had a lot of luck in the southern part of California. In fact, they are only 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Los Angeles against the Clippers. And the Clippers have proven that they are worthy to lay points at home as they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Golden State is 4-30 on the road this season where it is losing by 9.3 points on average. Plus, plays on any team revenging a road blowout loss of 30 points or more, well rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, are 29-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Clippers.

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Hornets +3
There is usually plenty of energy in the arena on Saturday nights and the Hornets are a team that feeds off that energy. In fact, New Orleans is on a 29-14 ATS tear in Saturday home games. It is also worth noting that the Hornets are 55-27-3 ATS in their last 85 Saturday games period. New Orleans is perennially a good home team. It is usually rare to find the Hornets catching points on their home floor, but they have been money in the bank when they do. They are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Hornets are also an outstanding 25-8 ATS in their last 33 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We'll take the Hornets in the home dog role tonight.

3* Friday Night NBA Blowout on Suns -10.5
The Suns have plenty of motivation to run up the score on the Knicks tonight. First off, they are fighting for the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference so they can get home court in the first round of the playoffs. Secondly, they will be out for blood here after getting crushed by a score of 99-126 at New York the last time these two teams met. Having not played since Monday, I expect the Suns to be very fresh and energetic this evening. Plus, plays on favorites of 10 or more points, after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, against an opponent that has gone under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, are 25-5 ATS since 1996 and 13-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in these spots have been favored by 12.2 points on average and are winning by an average of 17.9. Take the Suns.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Mavericks +3
This is a revenge game for Dallas, who has lost both previous meetings with the Blazers this season. From a point spread perspective, the Mavs have been at their best on the road, especially here recently. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Dallas is also 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog of 4.5 or less points. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Trail Blazers have struggled to cover the spread against the NBA's elite. In fact, they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning rate above 60%. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. Bet the Mavs.

3* Wednesday Night NBA SMASH on Rockets +8
The Thunder are struggling a little bit, having lost 3 of their last 4, and I expect them to get a test from a very resilient Houston Rockets squad tonight. The Rockets are coming off a loss in Chicago, but they have proven to be a good bounce back team from a point spread perspective. In fact, the Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Thunder are much improved this season, but they haven't proven they can be trusted laying this many points. In fact, they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. They also haven't proven they can beat the Rockets. Houston has won 13 in a row against the OKC franchise. It is also worth noting that Houston is 15-5 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, actually exploding to win in these spots by 10.6 points on average. Take the points.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Magic/Hawks UNDER 196
We've seen the last 4 meetings between these two teams finish Under the number with the average combined score in these games totaling just 180.8 points. This matchup will feel like a playoff game as the defensive intensity should increase. The fact that Orlando crushed the Hawks by 18 the last time these two teams met will have Atlanta out for blood tonight. Revenge plays in our favor here as Atlanta is 19-6 Under when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more versus an opponent over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing 184.8 total points scored in these spots on average. Plus, Atlanta is 23-12 Under vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 182.3 points scored in these games. Yes, Orlando has been scoring the rock lately, but it is 16-4 Under after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 191.3 points scored in these spots. We'll take the Under tonight.

3* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Clippers +10
Dallas will be motivated in this spot following back-to-back defeats, but odds makers are asking too much of the Mavs to win by an 11-point margin, especially without fresh legs, having just played last night. The Clippers will be motivated, too, after a very poor showing against a lowly Kings team that was playing without Tyreke Evans. The performance prompted Baron Davis to call out his team. "There is no explanation for our performance. It was just a lack of effort," said Davis. I expect the Clippers to respond tonight. It likely won't mean a win, but it should mean a cover. Consider this: Dallas is 1-10 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season and 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points this season. Dallas is also 0-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season this season and 0-7 ATS in home games versus poor teams that are outscored by their opponents by 3 or more points per game in the 2nd half of the season this season. We'll take the points.

5* Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons -3
The Pistons just fell in Indiana by 4 points on Friday so they will be hungry to return the favor at home tonight. That hunger should have grown after the Pistons turned in one of their worst performances of the season against the Cavs Sunday. In fact, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (line opened at -3.5) revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 37-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. a division opponent, off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival, are 32-11 ATS since 1996, including 11-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Indiana comes in having lost 9 straight road games with all of those losses coming by at least 4 points. In fact, the Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We'll lay the points with the Pistons.

3* Monday NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Grizzlies -2
With Tyreke Evans not at 100 percent (listed as questionable), I just don't see the Kings getting the job done tonight against a more talented Memphis squad that is still hanging on to its playoff hopes. Memphis has really played well on the road of late, winning 7 of its last 8 SU & ATS. The Grizzlies are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 10 points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite and 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Kings are just 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or less. We'll lay the number.

3* Sunday Night NBA SMASH (ESPN) on Suns -6
Phoenix will be out for blood this evening as it tries to avenge 4 straight losses to the Blazers. I love the fact that plays against road teams, extremely well rested team playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 23-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. The road team has lost by 10.4 points on average in these spots. Also, Phoenix is 12-1 ATS versus teams allowing their opponents to shoot 46% or better from the floor in the 2nd half of the season this season, winning these games by an average score of 113.2 to 99.8. The Suns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Look for the Suns to have their revenge this evening.

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Celtics +4
The Celtics just played last night, but I don't expect freshness to be an issue as they look to make a statement with a win over one of the best teams in the West tonight. In fact, Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing without any rest. Dallas has proven to be an awful chalk team this season, especially at home where it is only winning by 1.8 ppg this season. It's just hard to justify laying points here when you consider that the Mavericks are only 2-25-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite and the Celtics are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or less points. Prior to a January loss to the Mavs, Boston had won 4 straight in this series. That defeat will have the C's even more motivated this evening. Plus, the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Dallas. Take the Celtics and the points.

3* Friday Night NBA SMASH on Thunder -1
The Thunder will not be lacking any motivation tonight after seeing their five-game winning streak come to an end after blowing a 19-point lead against the Bobcats Wednesday. I expect a very big game from Kevin Durant tonight. After missing 17 of his 26 shots against the Bobcats, including all 7 of his 3-point attempts, he will enter tonight's contest with extreme focus. Plus, the Raptors are the worst defensive team in the East, allowing 105.9 ppg. The Raptors haven't won back-to-back games in a month so they will fight hard tonight. But when it's all said and done, I think it will be just too much Kevin Durant. Plus, Plays against home underdogs looking to avenge a blowout loss of 20 points or more to an opponent, off a close home win by 3 points or less, are 22-4 ATS since 1996, including a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

4* Major NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Magic -2
I know the Magic are playing back-to-back, but last night's breezer against the Spurs hasn't exactly left them gasping for air. Orlando is the much deeper squad with a lot more fire power, and I expect it to take care of business tonight. After Miami won the season's first two meetings, the Magic responded with a 16-point blowout win late last month and I fully expect them to even the season series tonight. Plus, wins by the Heat in this series have been very rare in recent years as Orlando is 8-3 against Miami the last 3 seasons. I really think Miami is being overvalued at this price, especially when you consider that it is 0-8 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 of its last 7 games this season, 5-16 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of its last 7 games straight up over the last 2 seasons and 6-19 ATS in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more since 1996. It's also nice to know that Orlando is 24-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. We'll take the Magic.

4* Major Wednesday NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers +5
The Bucks are playing good basketball, but we can't forget that they are 7 games below .500 on the road and the Clippers are still 3 games above .500 at home. Plus, the Bucks are 2-9-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall and just 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this matchup in Los Angeles. You also have to love the fact that plays on home underdogs, cold team failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, against an opponent that has covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, are 59-25 ATS since 1996, 20-7 ATS the last 5 seasons and a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. We have seen 5.3-point underdog on average with this system and they are only losing by an average of 1.1 points. I also like that the Clippers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. We'll take the home dog.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Lakers/Kings UNDER 206
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA), tired team playing its 3rd road game in 5 days, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 130-82 since 1996, including 63-33 the last 3 seasons. The Lakers just played a fast-paced game in Golden State last night so they aren't going to have the energy to run and gun again here. Expect the Lakers to slow the pace as much as possible, operating in the half court offensively. The Lakers are also 24-11 Under when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons, and we are only seeing 199.8 points scored in the games on average. The Under is also 5-0 in the Lakers' last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll bet the Under.

3* NBA Crunch Time Bailout (ESPN) on Warriors +8
The Warriors have quietly covered the spread in 3 straight, 6 of their last 8 and 10 of their last 15. Playing Portland to a 5-point game and defeating Toronto by double digits in their last 2 comes as no surprise as the Warriors are healthier than they've been in a long time with Corey Maggette and Monta Ellis back in the lineup. With this being a division game, and with it being against the best team in the West, you can bet the Warriors will be pumped up. In fact, they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. the NBA Pacific Division. They are 8-1 ATS versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 6 or more points per game this season, only losing to these teams by 4.7 points on average. They are also 17-5 ATS versus other up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game this season, only losing to these teams by .3 points on average. The Lakers are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Lakers have struggled to put teams away on the road and we anticipate that being the case again this evening.

4* Major Monday Night NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on 76ers -3.5
After a completely dominant performance against the Mavs Saturday, this is a natural letdown spot for the Knicks. Meanwhile, the 76ers will be hungry to avenge yesterday's loss to Miami and a 1-point home heartbreaker to the Knicks earlier this year. The Knicks are only 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings and just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Philadelphia. The Knicks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win and 15-31 ATS in their last 46 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The 76ers have won 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams, with all 8 of those wins coming by 5 points or more, and with 6 of them coming by double figures. Lay the number.

3* Sunday Night NBA SMASH on Jazz +1.5
The Jazz have not lost back-to-back games in more than two months and I don't expect that streak to end today. They will be especially motivated this evening against a team that defeated them in both previous meetings this season, including a 1-point heartbreaker the last time they met. Besides being a good bounce back team from a straight up standpoint, the Jazz are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. loss. They are are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Plus, Utah is 12-2 ATS off a road loss this season, winning these games by an average score of 107.2 to 97.3. It is also 17-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season, winning in these spot by an average score of 104.7 to 95.5. Take the Jazz.

3* NBA Early Annihilator on Pacers +9.5
After an embarrassing loss to the Celtics, and after 3 prior defeats to the Bucks this season, expect the Pacers to be very hungry here. The Pacers have played the Bucks to 3 and 2 point games in two of their 3 defeats so I think we are getting a really good line here. Right away, I love the fact that plays against favorites, an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after 3 straight games where it and its opponents scored 95 points or less, are 23-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. The underdog is only losing by an average of .3 points in these games while being faced with an average pointspread of 7.6. It is also worth noting that Indiana is 8-1 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 105.6 to 98.8. The Bucks are rolling right now and they are being overvalued because of it. Expect the Pacers to keep this one close.

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Wizards +12.5
This might be Washington's 3rd game in 3 nights, but that actually plays in our favor here as it is causing odds makers to severely undervalue this team. Washington may only be 12-21 at home, but it is only losing those games by an average of 2.6 points. Orlando is 19-14 on the road, but it is only winning those games by 2.2 points on average. So I'd say we are getting some pretty good value with the Wizards here. Plus, Washington has proven that it shows up against the Magic and should be even more motivated to do so after a poor performance against Detroit. The Wizards have won both meetings this season and haven't lost by more than 9 points in the last 4. It also plays to our favor that Orlando has a game tomorrow against a better Bobcats team. A win will suffice for the Magic here while staying fresh for tomorrow's contest. So there

4* Major NBA Dog of the Week on Clippers +10
After 5 straight losses, the Clippers will be a very hungry team tonight. On top of that, they will draw confidence from a 98-94 win over the Bobcats last month. The Bobcats are rolling, having won 4 in a row SU & ATS, but it's going to be difficult for them to give the Clippers their full attention with Orlando up next. Just last month, the Bobcats lost to the Nets at home when they were caught looking ahead to Cleveland. Plus, plays against home favorites of 10 or more points, after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season, are 21-6 ATS the last 5 seasons, 8-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. The road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Clippers.

3* Thursday Night NBA SMASH on Hawks -7
Off back-to-back defeats, including one to the lowly Knicks, expect the Hawks to respond with a big win in Washington tonight. Winning in Washington has been no problem for the Hawks as they are a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS at Washington over the last 3 seasons. Plus, plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record, are 30-10 ATS the last 5 seasons, winning these games by 9.2 points on average. In addition, Atlanta is on a 16-4 ATS run as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, winning in these spots by 14.4 points on average. We'll lay the points.

3* 28-0 ATS NBA SMASH on Nets +11.5
I stayed away from the Nets as much as possible this season, but now there is starting to be some value in playing them. This is a team that does not want to go down in the history books as the worst ever so they are playing hard right now. As a result, they have covered the spread in 3 straight games. The Mavs are extremely banged up. Terry is out for sure and Barea, Haywood and Dampier all could miss as well. Health is the most important thing this time of year so don't expect the Mavs to play a bunch of banged up guys big minutes just to blowout the worst team in the NBA. Dallas will be content with just squeaking by with a "W" in this spot. With Dallas lacking guard depth due to injuries, look for Harris, the former Mav, to have a big game tonight. Jason Kidd just doesn't have the foot speed to stay with him, especially if he has to play big minutes. The numbers are in our favor as well. The Nets are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Mavericks are 3-22-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. We'll take the points.

5* NBA System Play of the Month on Heat +3.5
I feel this is a great spot to back the Heat tonight. Miami is playing some of its best ball of the season, having won 3 straight with 2 of those wins coming over the Lakers and Hawks. So momentum is on its side. Motivation is also on its side. The last time these teams faced off, the Bobcats handed the Heat an embarrassing 104-65 loss. Trust me, that one is not sitting well with D. Wade and company. Expect a big game from Wade tonight and for the Heat to pull the upset. Plays on road underdogs revenging a road blowout loss of 30 points or more are 25-9 ATS the last 5 seasons, and when that dog is well rested only playing its 2nd game in 5 days, the situation improves to 23-4 ATS the last 5 seasons (85.2%). These numbers are too telling to ignore. We'll play by the numbers tonight!

4* Major NBA "Total" Public Massacre on Mavericks/Timberwolves UNDER 207
The public money is coming in on the Over in this matchup tonight because Dallas has played to the Over in 6 of its last 7 and Minnesota in 3 straight. Also, we have seen high-scoring affairs the last two times these teams have faced off. But I don't expect these trends to hold up tonight. The Under is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings between these two sides, including a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota. Furthermore, Dallas is extremely tired right now having played a ton of games in few days since the All-Star break. Also, the average total score in Mavs road games this season is 199.7 points. In T-Wolves home games, it's 199.1 points. These two teams have played much lower scoring games in Minnesota and we expect this trend to continue tonight.

5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Blazers +7
Expect the rested Blazers (haven't played since Mar. 3), winners of 5 of their last 6 SU & ATS, to play really well against their division rival tonight. While Denver is 27-5 at home this season, it is only 16-15-1 ATS in those games. Portland is 17-14 on the road, but a strong 20-10-1 ATS in those games. While Portland is rested, Denver is not. Carmelo has been receiving additional intravenous fluids because he's been so run down. In fact, Denver is only 5-13 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season, only winning in these spots 2.7 points on average. I also like that Portland is 8-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 99+ points per game in the 2nd half of the season this season. The Trail Blazers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite. We'll take the points.

3* Sunday NBA "Total" Dominator on Thunder/Kings UNDER 202.5
These two teams just played Tuesday in OKC and we saw them combine for 220 points. The Thunder gave up 107 points in that game and then they gave up 119 to Denver the next night. Kevin Durant spoke about how disappointed he was with the team's defensive effort in those games, and rightfully so, as the Thunder have only been allowing 96.4 points this season. They stepped up against the Clippers Friday, holding them to just 87 points, and I expect them to bring the "D" again tonight. Prior to Tuesday's encounter, the three previous meetings had all come in Under 200 points. Plus, the Kings have scored 98 or fewer points in 7 of their last 10 games so their offense clearly isn't what it was prior to trading Kevin Martin. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Sacramento between these two teams. Take the Under.

4* Major Saturday Night NBA Blowout on Cavs -3.5
After coming out sluggish last night, expect the Cavs to show up against a hot Milwaukee Bucks team that gave them a run for their money when they last faced off in December. Milwaukee is playing its best basketball of the season, but I feel comfortable laying this number when you consider that it has a 17-point loss to Orlando and a 4-point loss to Atlanta during this hot streak. Plus, Cleveland has won 5 of the last 6 meetings by 6 or more points with the last 3 at Milwaukee coming by 8 or more points. The Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Lay the points.

4* Major Friday Night NBA Blowout on Thunder -4.5
Off their worst loss of the season, look for the Thunder to be motivated enough to put the hurt on the Clippers tonight. The Thunder have used motivation very well. In fact, they are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 41-18 ATS in their last 59 games following a loss period. In other words, this is a great bounce back team. The Clippers are in a similar situation, coming off a blowout loss to Phoenix, but they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss and only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. On top of this, the Thunder will be out to avenge a loss to the Clippers the last time these two teams met, and plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a same season loss, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 36-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, good team outscoring their opponents by 3 or more points per game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 34-9 ATS the last 5 seasons, including 6-1 ATS this season. Lay the points.

5* ESPN Game of the Month on Hornets +8
Off 3 straight defeats, the Hornets will be extremely hungry tonight, especially since one of those defeats was to the Spurs on Monday. The Spurs haven't played since that Monday game, but that could prove to be too much time off when you consider that they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. It's also hard to lay this many points with the Spurs when you consider that they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It makes it even more difficult to lay those points when you see that the Hornets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Plus, one day of rest is usually sufficient for the Hornets as they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. We'll take the points.

5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Jazz +1.5
Rarely does Utah ever lose 2 in a row. In fact, the Jazz have not lost back-to-back games in 2 months. Utah will be the fresher team tonight, having not played since Monday (Phoenix just played last night). The Jazz will also be extremely motivated to avenge a loss to the lowly Clippers in their last game. Head-to-head, the Jazz are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Phoenix. As I already mentioned, they are a great bounce back team and are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss as a result. The Jazz are also 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. Another thing that can't go unmentioned here is how much better Utah has been than Phoenix when playing on Thursday nights, a night that NBA teams don't play on often. The Jazz are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games while the Suns are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 Thursday games. We'll take Utah tonight.

5* Wednesday NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +2
I really believe Memphis is the better team and it will be hungry to prove it after 2 prior losses to the Hornets this season. In the latest matchup between these two teams, New Orleans overcame a 21-point third-quarter deficit to win 109-102 in overtime. In the teams' first matchup this season, New Orleans rallied from a nine-point deficit and won 113-111 at home on James Posey's layup with 1.1 seconds left. Those two losses, which should have been wins, have to be sitting very sour with the Grizzlies. They will be the driving force for a Memphis win this evening. Memphis has won 4 straight on the road. The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Plus, the Hornets are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Take Memphis.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Kings/Thunder UNDER 203
We've seen each of the last three meetings between these two teams coming in under the number with scores of 197, 191 and 199, and I'm expecting this one to stay under 200 as well. OKC is coming off a blowout win over Toronto, and it has Denver up next, but I don't believe the Thunder will get caught looking ahead here because they will be looking to avenge a loss to Sacramento. That means we can expect to see Oklahoma City's rock solid defense that is only allowing 95.2 ppg at home. The Kings have really struggled to score on the road, tallying scores of just 98, 89 and 88 in their last 3 road games. In fact, the Kings have been held to 98 or fewer points in 6 of their last 7 games and the Under is 5-2 in those games as a result. Sac is 9-1 Under on Tuesday nights this season and 12-3 Under in road games against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Under is also 18-7-1 in the Thunder's last 26 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Under.

5* NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Bobcats -2
This is a tough spot for the Mavs, who just played last night, and will be playing their 9th game in 14 days. The Bobcats find themselves in a much better spot, playing at home where they are an impressive 20-7 this season, and playing with 2 full days of rest. Charlotte will also be looking for a little bit of revenge here after falling at Dallas by 1 point in December. Right away, you have to like the fact that plays against underdogs playing on back-to-back days, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 164-109 the last 5 seasons (60.1%). You also have to like the fact that Charlotte is 13-4 ATS in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 97.8 to 90.6. The Bobcats are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Mavericks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing without any days rest. We'll take the Bobcats at home tonight.

5* Sunday Night NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Hornets +8
New Orleans has showed up against elite competition. Just this month, we've seen the Hornets play the Magic to a 6-point game at Orlando to cover as a 9.5-point dog. We just saw the Hornets beat the Magic outright as a 5-point dog Friday. We have also seen them defeat the Celtics here recently and cover the number against the Cavs. The Hornets are very confident right now, even without Chris Paul, because of how well Darren Collison is playing. Plus, New Orleans has played the Mavs extremely tough, having won 8 of the last 11 meetings. You also have to like the fact that New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points under coach Bower. The Hornets are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 1 days rest and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Mavericks are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite and 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.

4* Major NBA Marquee Matchup (ABC) on Lakers -6
This is a statement game for LA, which has been crushed by the Nuggets by double digits twice already this season. While the Nuggets were able to win in LA earlier this month, that was an aberration as the Nuggets are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Los Angeles against the Lakers. A big key here will be the depleted energy level of the Nuggets, which have played a lot of games in few days. In fact, Denver is just 3-11 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. The Lakers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and I look for them to put it on the Nuggets here.

5* NBA Blowout of the Month on Pacers -1.5
With Joakim Noah doubtful this evening, and with Indiana out for revenge after losing at Chicago this week, we'll take the rested Pacers in this revenge spot against a Bulls team that just played an emotionally and physically draining OT game last night. Right away, you have to like the Pacers when you consider that plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. an opponent, after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 64-32 ATS since 1996. The last time Indiana played the same team twice in the same week, it lost the first game (by 15 at Toronto) but then responded with a 15-point win in the second game. We'll lay the points here as I like Indiana by double digits.

3* SMASH on Clippers +9.5
The Clippers have won 3 in a row SU & ATS and they'll ride that momentum into Phoenix tonight where they are looking for revenge. The Clippers remember their 124-93 Christmas Day loss in Phoenix well, and that loss will have them extremely motivated tonight. The Suns have been playing well also, but their focus figures to wander to their next game against the Spurs. Here's the key: plays on road teams revenging a road blowout loss of 30 points or more are 29-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, the Suns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and the Clippers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Take the points.

5* NBA Underdog of the Month on Pistons +10
Tough spot for the Nuggets playing back-to-back after such an uptempo game last night. The Nuggets shot out of their mind last night, but those shots will have a tougher time falling with tired legs. This is a similar spot to last week for the Nuggets. After beating the Cavs, the Nuggets lost the next night by double digits to Washington as they were looking ahead to a game with Boston. Tonight, I think they get caught looking ahead to a showdown with the Lakers. Detroit has fared well against the Nuggets. In fact, it has won 7 straight and 21 of the last 25. The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 13-3 ATS in the last 16. The Nuggets are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on zero day's rest, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Detroit keeps this one within the number tonight.

4* Major Marquee Matchup (ESPN) on Hawks -3
This is a letdown spot for Dallas after such a gratifying win over the Lakers. Atlanta is one of the toughest home teams in the NBA at 22-6 at home this season. Its athleticism has caused major problems for the Mavs in recent matchups. Atlanta has won the last 2 meetings by 8 and 5 points respectively. In fact, the Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings and also 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Atlanta. Atlanta has been deadly in the small home chalk. The Hawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points and 29-14-1 ATS in their last 44 games as a home favorite period. We'll lay the points with one of the best home teams in the NBA tonight.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Warriors +6
It's going to be a little bit different feel for the Nuggets without head coach George Karl on the bench tonight. Plus the Nuggets have been very inconsistent on the road this season and they figure to get a major test from a very motivated Warriors team here. The Warriors have lost each of the 3 prior meetings this season, with the last two losses coming by just 1 point and 5 points respectively, so you can bet they'll be pulling out all the stops not to be swept in the season series. Denver is just 4-12 ATS as a road favorite this season and only 1-10 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season, only winning in these spots by 3.6 points on average. The Nuggets are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Warriors are a terrific 34-13-4 ATS in their last 51 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll back the Warriors in the home dog role tonight.

4* Major NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Bobcats +8
Can't see the Jazz covering this number without Deron Williams, who is doubtful with a quad injury, tonight. He is the engine of the Utah offense. Meanwhile, the Bobcats should be extremely hungry for a win here after back-to-back bad losses to the Bucks and Clippers. I expect a big game from Stephen Jackson tonight as he looks to rebound from a dreadful 1 of 16 performance in his last game. I know Utah is in a bounce back spot, but I can't see it winning this one by 8-plus with a banged up point guard against a Bobcats team that should be motivated. The Underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and we'll side with the dog tonight.

3* SMASH on Blazers +3
While Marcus Camby is doubtful and Jerryd Bayless is listed as questionable, I still give the edge to the Blazers catching points as the Raptors are expected to be without Chris Bosh. Without Bosh, the Blazers have the two best players on the floor in Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge and those guys should will the Blazers to victory here. While the Raptors have been good at home this season, consider that they are only 11-26-1 ATS in their last 38 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We also can't dismiss the fact that the Blazers are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games playing on zero day's rest, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. We'll take the points.

5* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Suns/Thunder UNDER 204
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Phoenix in this case; a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in February games, are a perfect 15-0 this season. With Steve Nash not playing tonight, the Suns won't have as much success pushing the pace and their pick-n-roll game won't be nearly as smooth. Plus, Phoenix is 7-0 Under in the second half of the season this season and 10-0 Under in road games on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons. We'll bet the Under here.

3* SMASH on Knicks +10
Boston wins tonight, but not by enough to cover this margin. The Celtics will likely be without Paul Pierce tonight, who is listed as doubtful with a thumb injury. Plus, they will undoubtedly be looking ahead to Thursday night's showdown with the Cleveland Cavaliers. New York just played last night, but the team will be happy to get a chance to avenge an absolutely horrific performance so quickly. The Knicks only scored 67 points in last night's game with the Bucks and I expect much better from them here. NY has either defeated or played the Celtics to within 10 or fewer points in 3 straight and 6 of the last 7 meetings. The Celtics are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Even if Tracy McGrady isn't able to go, I look for the Knicks to keep this one within the number.

3* NBA Marquee Matchup on Atlanta Hawks +5
The Jazz have been rolling, but this is an extremely difficult spot for them after expending a lot of energy to come from 25 down to win in OT against Portland last night. Atlanta will be very hungry off back-to-back losses, including a bad loss to a lowly Golden State team Sunday in a game where it blew an 18-point lead. The Hawks match up very well with Utah athletically and that's a big reason why they have won the last two meetings by 7 and 13 points. Revenge may not be too likely for the Jazz in this spot when you consider that plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where they scored less than 85 points, playing on back-to-back days are 24-6 ATS the last 3 seasons, including 2-0 ATS already this season. The underdog is actually winning by 1.5 points on average in these spots. The Hawks are also 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.

5* Monday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +9
I know Indiana has really struggled on the road this season, but it is coming off a nice confidence boosting win over the Rockets. Furthermore, this will be the Mavs 5th game in the last 7 days, making this a tough spot for a veteran team. Also, I have to think that Dallas will be much more concerned about Wednesday's showdown with the Lakers. With all this in mind, I really can't justify laying this many points when you consider that Dallas is just 5-20 ATS as a home favorite this season, only winning in these spots by an average of 1.5 points. Lastly, plays against home favorites, extremely tired team playing their 5th game in 7 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 22-4 ATS the last 5 seasons, 18-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. Take the points.

4* Major NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* (ESPN) on Blazers +1
The Blazers have plenty of incentive to show up tonight after getting embarrassed at home by Boston and having lost each of the season's previous 3 meetings by double digits to the Jazz. This is a matchup that has been dominated by the home team in terms of the point spread as the home team is 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings. Furthermore, the Jazz are just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Portland. We also love the fact that plays on any team revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 10 points, are 72-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. With this in mind, I think it's safe to say we have the right side here. We also like the fact that the Trail Blazers are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games as a home underdog and 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We'll take a very motivated Blazers team tonight.

5* Sunday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +6.5
The Thunder are coming off a taxing overtime win in New York last night so they are going to have a difficult time covering this number on the road tonight, especially against a division rival that has played them so tough. Minnesota has either won or lost by 5 or fewer points in 6 of the last 7 meetings. The only exception was a 7-point loss. The T-Wolves normally always get up for division games so it comes as no surprise that they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA Northwest. Plus, they are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. While the Thunder are a much improved team this season, I think it's still a lot to be asking this team to lay this many points very often, especially in today's spot. In fact, the Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. I think it is also worth noting that they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games. We'll take the points.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator (ABC) on Cavs/Magic UNDER 195
I expect a very physical defensive battle as this game takes on the feel of a playoff game Sunday afternoon. After allowing 106 points or more in each of its last 3 games, expect a Cleveland team only allowing 94.9 ppg on the season to really clamp down on the defensive end. Orlando will be equally motivated to "D" up after allowing 115 points to the Cavs just 10 days ago. The Magic are only allowing 94.2 ppg at home this season. This is a very strong system as it applies to both teams: plays Under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, extremely well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, are 38-13 the last 5 seasons, including a perfect 2-0 already this season. The average total posted in these games has been 195 and we are only seeing a total of 187.1 points scored on average. Bet the Under.

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Pacers +8
Houston has 4 new players that are expected to see the floor tonight, and that is bound to throw this team's chemistry for a loop. While Indiana has struggled on the road, it has had success against the Rockets. In fact, the Pacers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Houston just hasn't shown that it can be trusted laying this many points when you consider that it is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games overall, 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games, 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the Pacers and the points.

3* Friday Night NBA SMASH on Bucks pk
Since winning the season's first meeting clear back on Halloween, the Bucks have dropped the last two to the Pistons. Expect Milwaukee to even the score tonight as it looks to stay in the hunt for the final playoff spot in the East. The Pistons are just 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall, including 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Meanwhile, the Bucks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Bucks are also an impressive 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Bucks are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Bet the Bucks.

5* ESPN Game of the Month on Mavs +6.5
Dallas has had tremendous success against the Magic, winning 5 of the last 6 meetings with that lone loss coming by just 2 points. This is a matchup that has been dominated by the underdog in terms of the point spread as the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Magic are a team that have been very prone to losing in look ahead spots. In fact, they lost to Memphis on January 25th as a favorite with Boston up next, and they lost to Washington as a favorite on February 5th with Boston on deck again. With LeBron and the Cavs on deck, it will likely be difficult for the Magic to give complete focus to the task at hand. Also, plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, against an opponent after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 27-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. We'll take the points with the Mavs tonight.

5* NBA on TNT Game of the Year on Nuggets +7
Denver believes it can win a championship and it has certainly showed that to be a possibility in its biggest games this season. The Nuggets have won both of their meetings with the Lakers and they won their only meeting with the Cavs in a game Carmelo Anthony did not play in. Now, with coach George Karl announcing that he has cancer, I expect his boys to play even harder. I have to think that the Nuggets will be the more focused team tonight as the Cavs try to adjust to life with Antawn Jamison and life without Zydrunas Ilgauskas. It is not clear whether Jamison will play, but it is certain that Big Z won't be in the lineup and the Cavs will miss him. We saw how bad the Mavs looked in their first game after making a big trade, only scoring 86 points against the Thunder. Chemistry was an issue and I expect it to be an issue for Cleveland here. Plus, the Cavs are still expected to be without Mo Williams so quality depth is also an issue. The Nuggets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Nuggets are also 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll take the points.

5* Never Lost NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Mavs UNDER 217.5
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Phoenix in this case; a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in February games are 51-15 the last 5 seasons including a Perfect 10-0 this season. In addition, plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, Dallas in this case; cold team failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15, well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, are 26-4 since 1996 and 10-1 the last 3 seasons. With the Mavs still adjusting to their new teammates, I don't think they will have enough offensive cohesiveness to push this one over the number.

4* Major Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz -2
The Jazz entered the All-Star break on a 9-1 tear, but a poor performance at home against the Lakers right before the break has left a sour taste in their mouth. Adding to that sour taste is an earlier season blowout loss to Houston. Expect the Jazz to bounce back strong tonight. The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Jazz are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 12-2-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall and 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. We'll lay the points with the Jazz.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Mavs/Thunder UNDER 195
The Mavericks have acquired DeShawn Stevenson, Brendan Haywood and Caron Butler and they are expected to see action right away. This is going to create some chemistry problems initially, especially on the offensive end, and this is the chief reason why I think this one comes in Under the number tonight. Plus, I like the fact that plays Under on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), are 43-18 since 1996, including 11-2 over the last 3 seasons. The Under is also 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams played in Seattle/Oklahoma City and 10-2 in the Thunder's last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. We'll bet the Under.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Spurs +6
It's gut check time for the Spurs. They only managed 89 points against the Lakers Monday in a double digit defeat in a game Kobe Bryant did not play in. If that doesn't get San Antonio motivated nothing will, but I have a hunch it will. The Spurs should be further motivated by two prior defeats to the Nuggets this season, including a double digit home loss on January 31st. It is certainly worth noting that this matchup has been all about the underdog with the dog covering the last 6 meetings. Plus, the Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Denver. I also like the fact that the Nuggets are just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite and 1-7-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. Denver is coming off a big win, and performances like that usually gain public backing the next game. That is the case here. With the odds makers' knowledge of such situations, I believe they have spotted us plenty of points to get the cover.

4* Major NBA Blowout of the Week on Celtics -4
After blowing a double digit lead and losing to Orlando on February 7th, I expect the Celtics to bounce back strong tonight to enter the All-Star break on a positive note. Darren Collison has played well in relief of Chris Paul, but now he's up against Rajon Rondo, one of the premier point guards in the game, so I expect to see him struggle tonight. The Hornets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Atlantic Division. Boston has won 4 straight over the Hornets, all by double digits, and I expect this trend to continue tonight.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Kings/Knicks UNDER 215.5
The Kings are 7-0 Under on Tuesday nights this season and we are only seeing 196.2 points in these games. I think it no coincidence either as the Kings are just 6-17 ATS on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons while only scoring 98.1 points in these games. Tuesday is a flat night for this team, most likely because it is often times their first game of the week. The Under is also 7-1 in the Knicks' last 8 Tuesday games and 5-0 in their last 5 games when playing on 2 days rest. NY is also 10-1 Under after trailing in its previous game by 20 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons and Sac is 11-1 Under after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. We'll take the Under here.

3* NBA on TNT "Total" Dominator on Spurs/Lakers UNDER 194
With Andrew Bynum listed as doubtful and with Kobe Bryant clearly not at 100 percent (listed as questionable), we can't expect to see the Laker offense hitting on all cylinders tonight. Plus, these two teams always know that it is a possibility they could see each other in the postseason so these games tend to mirror the postseason in terms of defensive intensity. That's why we've seen so many low-scoring contests. The Under is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings overall. The Under is also 6-0 in the Spurs' last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 5-1 in their last 6 road games period. Over the last 80 games between these two teams, we have seen an average combined score of just 187 points. And in the last 6 meetings in LA, we are only seeing an average of 186 combined points. We'll take the Under.

4* Major Saturday Night NBA Blowout on Grizzlies -3
Memphis is the better team, and it should be ready to prove it after enduring back-to-back defeats, including an embarrassing home loss to Houston last night. Minnesota just rattled off its third straight win last night, but it has not had much luck against the Grizzlies lately, losing all three matchups against them this season. Minnesota is just 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 95.3 to 109. Minnesota is also just 1-10 ATS versus good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 3 or more per game this season. The Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest while the Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. I'll take the better team laying a small number in a motivated spot.

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year (ESPN) on Nuggets/Lakers UNDER 202.5
The Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams, including 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in LA. The Under is also 6-1 in the Nuggets' last 7 road games and 5-0 in the Lakers' last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The last time these two teams met, clear back in November, we only saw 184 total points scored with the Nuggets holding the Lakers to just 79 points. The Lakers have not soon forgotten that embarrassing loss and I expect them to really buckle down on the defensive end tonight. But on top of the motivation, the star power in this matchup is banged up. The Nuggets are expected to be without Carmelo Anthony once again and Kobe Bryant is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. We'll pound the Under.

3* NBA Side of the Night on T-Wolves +10.5
First off, the Timberwolves are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Dallas. Secondly, Dallas is the worst favorite in the NBA right now. The Mavericks are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite, 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Minnesota comes in well rested and with great momentum having won its last 2. Plus, Dallas is banged up with Dirk Nowitzki and Erick Dampier both nursing injuries. We'll take the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Heat +10
Cleveland is rolling right now, but Dwayne Wade and company always seems to play the Cavs tough. I know Miami just played in Boston last night, but we are getting additional value with this line because of it. Plus, the Heat will be extremely motivated to avenge a 1-point home loss to the Cavs late last month. 7 of the last 8 matchups between these two teams have been decided by 9 or fewer points. The only exception was a 10 point loss by the Heat. With this in mind, I feel very comfortable taking the points. This matchup has favored the road team and the underdog as the road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Plus, the Cavaliers are only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Kings +4
The Spurs usually get more than they bargain for in Sacramento and I expect that to be the case again tonight. Sacramento has either won, or lost by 3 or fewer points, in home games against the Spurs since November of 2007. Tony Parker is listed as doubtful, and if he indeed isn't able to go, the Kings have an even greater chance of winning this game outright. Also plays on home underdogs in a double revenge spot (2 straight losses vs. an opponent), if that opponent is coming off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite, are on a 53-24 ATS run. The home team is on a 3-0-1 ATS run in the last 4 meetings and the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Sacramento. Take the points.

4* Major Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Blazers +7.5
I like the Blazers catching this many points at Utah tonight regardless, but especially with Carlos Boozer listed as doubtful. A big key here is that Utah has won the two prior meetings this season so the Blazers will be extremely motivated tonight. Plus, I love the fact that the Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the points.

5* NBA Public Massacre of the Year on Warriors +7
The Warriors may only by 4-20 on the road this season, but they are 13-10-1 ATS in those games, and they have been downright deadly lately. In fact, the Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. It's also hard to justify laying this many points with the Rockets when you consider that they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Plus, the Rockets have struggled to defend the uptempo Warriors in recent meetings, allowing Golden State to score 107 or more points in each of the last 3 meetings while not winning by more than 4 points. Plus, I love the fact that the public is all over Houston here, reaffirming that we have the smart money side. Take the points.