5* NBA *BEST BET* on Suns -2
Off three consecutive defeats, the Suns will be lacking no motivation tonight.

Phoenix has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games but is on an awesome 19-8 ATS run after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games.

The home team has dominated this series of late. It is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and has won these games by an average of 21.3 points. The Suns won 125-107 the last time they hosted. It is also worth noting that the Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Phoenix.

Portland has been a poor investment in games oddsmakers expect to be close. It is on a 5-16 ATS slide in games when the line is +3 to -3. It has lost these games by an average of 4.3 points. Take the Suns.

3* NBA SMASH on Hornets +7
Motivated by three consecutive defeats and having had two days to rest and prepare, I expect the Hornets to give the Knicks a game tonight.

The Hornets have been an awesome investment at 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall. They are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest. It is also a good sign that the offense has been performing well. The Hornets scored 113 points last game and have averaged 102.8 over their last four. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

New Orleans have been golden when catching this many points. In fact, they are on a 27-12 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and have only lost these games by an average of 0.8 points. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +7.5
Memphis is being overvalued because it has won eight consecutive games SU and ATS and is up against a team that has lost three in a row SU and ATS.

I'll gladly take the points here as Denver is a fantastic 30-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. It has lost these games by only 1.6 points on average.

It also bodes well for us that Denver was killed 126-100 at San Antonio in its last game. Consider that it is 16-2 ATS all-time under coach Karl after trailing in the previous game by 20 points or more at the half. The Nuggets have won by an average score of 107.2 to 97.8 in this situation.

Look for Denver to take Memphis down to the wire tonight.

3* NBA SMASH on Cavaliers +6.5
Motivated by 5 consecutive losses and further fueled by 5 consecutive defeats to the 76ers, expect the Cavaliers to leave it all out on the floor. The kind of effort I'm expecting will give the Cavs an opportunity to win this game outright.

The 76ers have struggled at home where they are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last 4 games, and their lone win during this stretch came by just 6 points. It is significant that they have a losing record at home because the Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a losing home record. We'll take the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Kings +3
Hungry to end a four-game slide, expect the Kings to take it to the Nets, just like they usually do at home. The Kings have won 12 of their last 15 at home in the series.

The Nets have won four in a row, but three of those came at home. This will be just their third road game of the season, and their first out west. It bodes well for us that Brooklyn enters off a "W" because it is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games following a win. It's on a 7-17 ATS slide when entering a contest off one or more consecutive wins. In addition, the Nets are only 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 road games versus a team that has a losing home record. Take the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Grizzlies -5.5
The Knicks are 6-0 SU and ATS, and they are getting 5.5 points. I think it's easy to see which side the books want us to take. I'm not going to oblige them.

This will be New York's second road game in as many nights and its third road game in 4 days, and I believe the fatigue sets in tonight.

The Grizzlies have also won 6 in a row SU and ATS since losing their opener, and they have beat the reigning NBA champs (Heat) and the reigning Western Conference champs (Thunder) in their last two by 18 and 10 points, respectively.

Memphis is an awesome 8-0 ATS dating back to the start of last season versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 6.0 points or more game. The Grizzlies have won these games by an average score of 98.6 to 86.1. Lay the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Bulls -2.5
The Suns are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games, and Monday's upset win puts them into a downright awful situation. Consider that they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.

The fact the Bulls enter with a winning record doesn't bode well for Phoenix either. That's because it is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games versus a team with a winning mark.

The Bulls haven't lost consecutive games all season. The fact they enter off an upset loss to the Celtics bodes well for us as they are 39-18-2 ATS in their last 59 games following a loss and 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games following an upset loss. They have bounced back to win by an average of 10.0. points in this situation.

The Bulls have won 3 in a row and 6 of their last 7 versus Phoenix. Lay the points.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +7
The Magic have lost four in a row but three of those were on the road. They'll be happy to be back home where they are 2-1 SU and ATS on the season.

As if four straight losses aren't enough motivation, the Magic will be further fueled by that fact they have been embarrassed the last two times they've played the Knicks.

New York is clearly being overvalued here because it has won each of its first four games SU and ATS with each win coming by at least 10 points. The fact the Knicks haven't played since Friday works against them as it slows their momentum. I expect them to be rusty as they've played just one game in the past seven days.

Orlando is on an impressive 19-6 ATS run in home games versus team that outscore their opponents by an average of 9.0 points or more per game. The Magic have won by an average score of 98.9 to 94.2 in this situation. Take the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Suns +5
Right away I like the fact that home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that won between 45% and 55% of their games the previous season are 36-11 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 5.5 points on average but have won by an average of 0.8 points. This system is 2-0 ATS this season.

Denver has won 4 in a row SU and ATS, and I don't believe it will give a Phoenix team it has defeated 6 straight times its full attention. It will be much more concerned with its next opponent (Miami), who it lost to earlier this season.

The Nuggets have struggled on the road. They are 2-3 and lucky to have that good of a mark as Golden State took them to double-OT in their last road game. The fact they have a losing road record is significant because the Suns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a losing road mark.

The home team is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings, and the Nuggets are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Phoenix. Take the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Magic +8
The Magic will be out for some serious revenge this afternoon following the embarrassing 107-68 loss they were handed by Brooklyn Friday. Consider that the Magic are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.

In addition, the Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against teams that allowed 100 points or more in their previous game. The Nets are also a poor 6-22 ATS in their last 28 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Take the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Warriors +2
Motivated by last night's embarrassing loss to the Lakers, and further fueled by a 39-point defeat the last time it faced Denver, expect Golden State to take care of business on its home floor.

The Warriors have been a strong investment in bounce back spots as they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss. They are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games when playing without a day of rest. It is also worth noting that they are on a 16-4 ATS run when playing on Saturday.

The Warriors won two of three meetings against Denver last season, including a 112-97 victory in the home meeting. They have won their last two at home in the series and 20 of their last 30.

Denver is just 1-3 on the road this season, and I expect its struggles away from home to continue against this hungry Golden State squad.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Rockets +7
The Rockets have lost two in a row since starting the season 2-0. Motivated by these defeats, I expect them to give the Grizzlies a game tonight. Consider that Houston is on an awesome 90-46 ATS run in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses. It has lost on average in this situation but only by an average of 1.3 points.

The Grizzlies have won three in a row since opening the season with a loss, but their 18-point victory in their last game puts them in a negative spot. Consider that they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Grizzlies are also just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.

The Rockets have won the last two meetings in the series and have either won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 11 of the last 13 matchups. Take the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Trailblazers +1
Off last night's satisfying victory over a San Antonio team that had swept them in last season's playoffs, expect the Clippers to suffer a letdown tonight.

Playing back-to-backs can be tough, especially if the second of the two is on the road, as is the case tonight. Making this one even tougher is the fact that Portland hasn't played since Monday so it will be very fresh. It was whipped by Dallas that night so it will be plenty hungry here.

Portland has long been one of the tougher places to play in the NBA which is something the Clippers know all too well. They are just 6-24 there dating back to 1996.

The Blazers are on a terrific 77-51 ATS as a home underdog of 6.0 points or less. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Portland. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Blazers.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers +2
As if back-to-back losses at home aren't enough motivation, the Clippers will be further fueled by the fact they were swept by the Spurs in last season's playoffs.

The Spurs aren't the same team on the road where they were fortunate to defeat the New Orleans Hornets in their only other road contest this season. They went 3-0 in L.A. in games against the Clippers last season but two of those wins came by just three points.

Besides having the motivational advantage and the home-court advantage, I expect the Clippers to be the fresher side. This will be San Antonio's fifth game in 8 days, which is an awfully challenging stretch for its aging personnel.

This is a game the Clippers want badly, and I fully expect them to get it.

Fading the Spurs on the road has produced a 100% perfect 5-0 ATS run. Take the Clippers.

4* NBA SMASH on 76ers +1
Motivated by back-to-back disappointing performance against the New York Knicks, the 76ers will be ready to take their frustrations out on a New Orleans team they have owned.

The 76ers are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings with 2 of these wins coming in New Orleans.

The fact the 76ers were upset by the Knicks in their last game is important because they are on a 37-19 ATS run when coming off an upset loss to a division rival. They have bounced back to win by an average score of 96.0 to 92.2 in this situation.

The 76ers took Boston to 7 games in the Conference Semifinals last season. I know this isn't the exact same group, but they still have plenty of key pieces from that team. The last two games can't be sitting well with a team that enjoyed so much success a season ago. Expect them to take care of business in this highly motivated spot.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls -8.5
Motivated by an upset loss at home to the Hornets in their last game, expect the Bulls to bounce back strong tonight against an Orlando team that will be playing its first road game of the season. The Bulls are an outstanding 39-16-2 ATS in their last 57 games following a loss.

The Magic are 2-0 SU and ATS as they have taken it to a pair of poor defensive teams. They will have their work cut out for themselves here against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Bulls currently rank second in scoring defense with 87.3 points allowed per game.

The Bulls are without Derrick Rose but proved they could win big without him for long stretches last season. The Magic won't have it as easy out on the road without the services of Al Harrington and Hedo Turkoglu. Jameer Nelson could miss as well with a groin injury.

The Bulls have failed to cover the number in two of their first three games. However, they are an awesome 19-6 ATS after failing to cover in two of their last three dating back to the beginning of last season. They have won these games by an average of 9.8 points so there is clearly value laying the 8.5 in this spot.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Kings -2
The Kings are 0-3 but each of their first three games have come on the road. At home for the first time this season, expect the Kings to break into the win column in impressive fashion.

While Sacramento is winless, it has been playing pretty good basketball. It played the Bulls to a six-point game to cover the spread and lost to the Pacers in overtime. Both the Bulls and Pacers were playoff teams last season and better teams than the one the Kings will see tonight.

Golden State is coming off a road win against the L.A. Clippers, but the Clipps were in a letdown spot following a big win over the Lakers the night before. The Warriors were also in a bounce back spot following a double-digit loss to Memphis. The Kings will clearly be the hungrier team tonight as they go after win No. 1.

Coming out flat on Monday is nothing new to the Warriors, who are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 Monday games. Lay the number.

3* NBA SMASH on Raptors -3
Motivated by back-to-back losses to start the season, expect the Raptors to roll against a Minnesota team that is without starters Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love.

Toronto has won 14 of the last 15 in this series and 8 in a row at home. The Timberwolves are 5-16 ATS in the last 21 meetings and 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Toronto. It's also worth noting that the favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

The T-Wolves won their opener against Sacramento by double digits Friday, but they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win. The Timberwolves are also 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.

The Raptors played yesterday but are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 Sunday games. Lay the points.

3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Warriors +9
Riding high from last night's win over the star-studded Lakers, expect the Clippers to be a little flat tonight. The Warriors, meanwhile, will be hungry following a disappointing performance at home against Memphis.

The Warriors are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning record and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.

Golden State is 1-0 ATS in the road underdog role this season and an awesome 23-10 ATS in the role dating back to the start of last season. It is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 versus the NBA Pacific division and 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games when playing without a days' rest.

The Warriors have won two of their last three against the Clippers and the loss came by only eight points. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and I'll grab them with the points tonight.

3* NBA SMASH on Magic +6.5
The Magic are being undervalued in their home opener because the perception is that they won't be very good without Dwight Howard. I think they'll be a little bit better than people think. Remember that they went 5-5 ATS without him in the final 10 regular-season games last season. The Magic have some new faces, but they still have a solid nucleus of returners in Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick, Glen Davis and Hedo Turkoglu. The Magic also get a nice boost from the addition of Aaron Afflalo.

The Nuggets have never had much success in Orlando. In fact, the Magic are 20-4 all-time at home in the series. The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings,and the underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that won between 45-55% of their games last season are 34-11 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 5.5 points on average but have actually won by an average of .1 points. Take the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Spurs -2.5
The Spurs just played last night in New Orleans, but I'm not worried about them being fresh here. The season is young so they aren't feeling the effects of a back-to-back the same way they will be later in the season. If anything, playing last night is a positive because it allowed them to work out a few kinks. In front of their home crowd and up against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs, they'll be ready to go!

The Spurs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without a days' rest. They are an awesome 40-17-4 ATS in their last 61 games overall, 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 home games, 33-14-4 ATS in their last 51 games following a win and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.

The Thunder have some new pieces to get acquainted with after shipping James Harden to Houston. They won't be the same well-oiled machine they were last season early on as they try to adjust to life without their star sixth man. The Thunder enter the season at 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. It is also worth noting that the home team is on a 4-1 ATS run in this series.

3* NBA Western Conference SMASH on Hornets +7
The Spurs are getting a little too much respect in New Orleans where they are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.

The Spurs won all four meetings last season but their two wins in New Orleans came by just two and three points, respectively. The Hornets typically give just about everyone a game when playing on their home floor. In fact, they enter the season on a 9-0 ATS run at home. It is also worth noting that the home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.

New Orleans has been pure gold in this point-spread range as it is on a 40-21 ATS run when valued as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. It has only lost by an average of .7 points in these games.

The New Orleans defense was good last season (ranked 8th with 93.4 points allowed per game) and it should be even better this year with the addition of top overall draft pick Anthony Davis and Robin Lopez. It's never a bad play to take big points with a quality defensive team.

3* NBA Eastern Conference SMASH on Raptors +2
The Pacers won all three meetings with the Raptors last season but each win came by only five points. Leading scorer Danny Granger played in all three matchups but won't go tonight. That's a nice break for the Raptors as Granger scored 18-plus in two of last season's three meetings.

The Pacers will really miss Granger's scoring as he averaged 18.7 points per game last season, and no one else averaged more than 12.8 points.

Because Toronto was so competitive with Indiana last season despite star forward Andrea Bargnani missing two of the meetings, I still really like the Raptors to win this one even if Bargnani is unable to go because of flu-like symptoms. He's currently listed as questionable.

The home team has had the big edge in this matchup as it is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. The Pacers are just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 meetings in Toronto.

The Pacers aren't the same team without Granger. Meanwhile, I expect Toronto be improved with such additions as Kyle Lowry, John Lucas, Landry Fields Jonas Valanciunas. Take Toronto.

4* NBA Season-opening *BEST BET* (TNT) on Celtics +6.5
Tonight will be more about the ring ceremony for the defending champs. The Celtics, meanwhile, will be all business as they look to send a message to the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Veterans Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce especially want to show Ray Allen that he made a mistake. Neither has spoken to their former teammate since he rejected a two-year, $12 million offer to return to the Celtics.

Even without Allen, I believe Boston is a better team now that Jeff Green is healthy and sixth-man extraordinaire Jason Terry has been brought aboard.

Boston typically plays Miami tough and is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings as a result. In fact, the Celtics have won or lost by just 4 points in 7 of the last 10 meetings. Take the points.

5* Finals *BEST BET* on Heat -3
Because of the Finals format, the Heat have an opportunity to win the series tonight at home. The last thing they want to do is go back to Oklahoma City where anything can happen.

LeBron James has been to the Finals twice before only to come up empty handed. With a chance to earn his first ring, I expect him to be unstoppable.

Home court has been very good to the Heat as they are 38-7 at home on the season. They are 10-2 at home in these playoffs with all 10 of those wins coming by at least 4 points. They are also a perfect 7-0 ATS at home this season following 2 consecutive games with a Western Conference foe. They have won by an average score of 104.6 to 87.6 in this situation.

The Heat have been in good rhythm when playing with 1 day of rest and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with that amount of rest and prep time. They have won these games by an average of 10.5 points.

Miami is also 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games as a favorite, 20-8 ATS in its last 28 playoff games as a favorite and 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a home favorite. The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Miami is the better defensive team, and I'm a firm believer in the old adage "defense wins championships".

The Thunder haven't been able to force Miami into enough turnovers during the series, which is significant because the Heat are 14-4 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. They have won by an average of 100.6 to 86.3 in this situation. Lay the points.

5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Thunder +3.5
Despite not playing all that well in Games 2 and 3 and shooting just 43.0 and 42.9 percent from the field, the Thunder lost those games by only 4 and 6 points respectively. They know it's basically do-or-die time tonight so I expect them to be very hungry and very focused.

Despite consecutive ATS losses, the Thunder are still 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. They are even 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Miami.

Under coach Brooks, OKC is 40-17 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses, including 18-6 ATS in this situation over the last 3 seasons - it has won by an average score of 101.6 to 94.3 in these 24 contests.

The Thunder are also 32-17 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent - over the last 3 seasons. They have won by an average score of 100 to 97.8 in this situation. These bounce back trends and revenge trends show us that Brooks is capable of making necessary adjustments and that his team is capable of executing those adjustments. They also speak of the heart and resiliency of the team.

Down 0-2 against the Spurs, OKC found another gear. I expect them to find that gear again tonight.

5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* on Heat -4
The Heat have been dominant all year at home, where they are 36-7. They are 8-2 at home in the playoffs with those 8 victories coming by an average of 15.9 points. It is also worth noting that they are 3-0 in their series home openers, winning those by an average of 18.7 points.

After stealing away Oklahoma City's home court advantage, the last thing the Heat want to do is give it right back. They get 3 consecutive games at home to try to wrap the series up and would prefer not to go back to Oklahoma City.

Slow starts have become an issue for the Thunder. They were able to recover from one in Game 1 but couldn't do so in Game 2. They'll especially struggle to fight back on the road if they get behind early again.

Ultimately, I believe Miami's defense will be the difference tonight. We're talking about a team that is only allowing 89.0 points per game at home.

The Heat are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 playoff games as a favorite. Lay the points.

5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* on Heat +5.5
After blowing a 13-point lead in Game 1, and not wanting to fall into a 0-2 hole, expect Miami to be out for blood tonight.

The Heat, one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, know they must tighten the screws on the defensive end after allowing Oklahoma City to shoot over 50%. I have no doubt Miami will be better defensively tonight as it has only allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better twice in these playoffs.

We have seen the way, LeBron James has been able to take his game to another level when the Heat had their back up against the wall in each of their previous two series. I don't expect him to wait in this series. After hearing all the talk that Kevin Durant is the best player in the NBA, James will be out to prove otherwise.

The value has lied with the road team in this matchup as the road squad is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. It also can't be ignored that the Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Miami is also 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. We'll take the points with Miami in this bounce back spot.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder -5
The Thunder are 34-7 at home on the season, including a perfect 8-0 in the playoffs. Those 8 wins have come by an average of 10.6 points. The Thunder won this year's regular-season home meeting against the Heat by 16 points as their depth proved to be too much for Miami. Their depth and fresher legs will be the difference in this one.

It is also worth noting that plays on any excellent offensive team that averages 102 points or more per game that is matched up against a good defensive squad that holds its foes to 88-92 ppg, provided the "play on" side allowed 60 points or more in the first half last game, are 31-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season.

The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with each of those wins coming by at least 5 points. Looking back, they are an impressive 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games.

In addition, the Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 3 days' rest or more, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when laying points, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a victory. The Heat are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.

In all, we have a 45-0 angle in our favor. Take the Thunder.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +8
After getting embarrassed in Game 6, and knowing that this may be their last chance to get back to the NBA Finals, expect the nucleus of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to leave it all on the floor tonight. Doing so should give Boston an opportunity to win.

The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus the Heat and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Miami. The C's have either won or lost by 8 points or less in 8 of the last 10 matchups.

Boston took it on the chin at home in Game 6 as LeBron James delivered a legendary performance, but it is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following an ATS loss and 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games following a SU loss. In other words, this is a resilient team.

It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

I also like the edge Boston has with Doc Rivers. He has outcoached Erik Spoelstra in this series, and I expect him to continue to do so tonight. We'll take the points.

3* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +2
The Celtics only have 1 loss at home in these playoffs and that defeat came by a single point. In other words, they have either won or lost by fewer than 2 points in all 9 of their home postseason contests. Going back to the regular season, Boston has either won or lost by fewer than 2 points at home in 23 straight. This is a 23-0 trend I'm getting behind this evening.

The Heat have lost 4 of their last 6 on the road in these playoffs, including both games in Boston.

Rajon Rondo has been the difference maker in this series. He has been able to get his team more easy looks than Miami during this series. The Heat have been too much of a one-on-one team, which makes them easier to defend. Consider that Boston is 9-1 ATS in home games in the 2nd half of the season the last 2 seasons versus poor passing teams that average 20 assists or fewer per game. The C's have defeated these foes by an average score of 93.1 to 82.3

Miami's last 2 losses in this series have come by 2 and 4 points, but recent history shows us that they haven't bounced by well from close defeats. In fact, the Heat are just 6-20 ATS since LeBron James arrived following a loss by 6 points or less. The Heat have gone down by an average score of 99.5 to 97.6 in this situation.

Lastly, the Heat are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Boston. Take the Celtics.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs +5
This experienced and accomplished San Antonio squad won't go down without a fight tonight.

Consider that road teams that have trailed their last 3 games by 5 points or more at the half and are matched up against an opponent that is coming off 2 straight games in which it and its opponent scored 100 points or more are 39-13 ATS since 1996. The "play on" side has only lost by an average 3.8 points. It is also worth noting that this system is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season.

In addition, the Spurs are 8-0 ATS since the beginning of last season in road games when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent. They have won these games by an average score of 102.9 to 96.4.

This could be the last chance for the nucleus of Duncan, Ginobli and Parker to earn another championship ring. They won't easily hand over the torch to the Thunder. I like the Spurs chances of winning this one outright so we'll certainly take the insurance points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Heat -7.5
The Heat blew an opportunity to take complete control of the series with an overtime loss in Game 4. They now enter Game 5 with a greater sense of urgency, and I expect them to roll to comfortable win.

Boston has won 2 in a row and 2 of the last 3 games have gone to overtime and Miami is laying this many points? It's clear the books want the money on Boston tonight and they're getting it.

Whether or not Chris Bosh returns to action, I really like Miami here. Consider that the Heat have won at home versus Boston by 8 points or more in 6 of the last 8 meetings. Those 6 wins have come by an average of 12.5 points.

In addition, Miami is 12-4 ATS after having lost 2 of its last 3 games this season. It has won by an average score of 97.9 to 88.6 in this situation. It is also 15-5 ATS in home games after a game where it failed to cover the spread this season. It has won by an average score of 103.5 to 86.5 in this situation. The Heat are even 10-4 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Celtics, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win.

Just when it looked like Miami might be losing its grip in the Eastern Conference semis, it kicked it in high gear versus the Pacers. I expect a similar response tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -5
Off back-to-back defeats on the road, expect the Spurs to bounce back strong at home where they are 11-0 in their last 11 with a 16.4-point average margin of victory.

The Spurs are 23-5-1 ATS in their last 29 home games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. They are even 8-1 ATS this season in home games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that occurred this season. They have won by an average score of 106.7 to 91.4 in this situation.

The Thunder are 0-6 in their last in San Antonio, losing those games by an average of 10.3 points. We'll lay the points.

5* NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year on Heat -130
Motivated by an embarrassing double-digit defeat in Game 3, expect the Heat to come storming back tonight.

The Celtics are a poor 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. In addition, they are just 6-18 ATS in home games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

The fact Miami is favored is significant because the favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Also, the Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

Miami shot just 10 of 20 from the foul line in Game 3. We're talking about a team that was among the best during the regular season at 77.5%. I expect the Heat to shoot much better from the charity stripe and for Dwayne Wade to be much more efficient offensively in this one. The result should be a Miami win.

I really like the Heat laying points, and expect them to win this one going away, but am taking them on the money line for insurance. Best of luck!

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs +3.5
I went against the Spurs in Game 3 as my NBA Game of the Year and it paid off big time as the Thunder ended San Antonio's 20-game win streak with a 20-point win. That, however, was the first time the Thunder had defeated the Spurs in the last 5 meetings. Expect the No. 1 seed in the West to bounce back strong tonight.

San Antonio is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. It hasn't just won in this situation, it has won by an average score of 106.4 to 93.4.

In addition, Oklahoma City is 0-8 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season.

The Spurs were the best road team in the West this season, and they've either won or lost by 2 points or less in 6 of 8 all-time meetings in Oklahoma City. Take the Spurs showing good value in the underdog role tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Heat +2
Boston's goose is cooked. The Celtics played as well as they can play in Game 2, but it wasn't enough. Boston's core of Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen combined to score 96 points, the most they've ever scored in a game together. After playing such heavy minutes in Game 2, I can't see any of these guys bouncing back to play as well in Game 3. We certainly can't expect another historic night from Rondo.

Miami is the younger, deeper team so it should be able to bounce back more easily from Wednesday's physically exhausting game.

This will be Boston's 4th game in 7 days, and it has been struggling when playing on just a days' rest at 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games in this situation. The Celtics covered the spread in Game 2 but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a cover.

The Heat are 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in their last 5 games, including 2-0 SU and ATS on the road during this stretch. They are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Finals games. We'll take the Heat.

5* NBA Game of the Year on Thunder -4
Down 0-2, it's do or die time for the Thunder knowing the history of teams that fall into an 0-3 hole. I expect them to "do" in impressive fashion on their home floor tonight.

The Thunder, who are 31-7 at home, have lost more than 2 consecutive games just once this season. In fact, OKC is 17-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. It has won by an average of 6.7 points in this situation.

The Thunder are 59-29-1 ATS in their last 89 games following a loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

The Spurs are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less.

The Thunder are 5-0 at home in these playoffs where they have won by an average of 10.2 points. Lay the number.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +8
Boston took it on the chin in Game 1, but I'm not hesitating to take the resilient Celtics in Game 2.

Boston hasn't lost back-to-back games in nearly two months. It is 9-0 in its last 9 games following a loss, winning those games by an average of 10.4 points.

The Heat rolled in Game 1, but we can't forget that the Celtics have still won 3 of the last 4 meetings. We also can't forget that Miami lost Game 2 of its previous series with the Pacers.

Rondo is the key tonight. I expect him to be very aggressive after a subpar effort by his standards in Game 1.

The Celtics are old, but they have the heart of a champion. We'll take the points as they take the Heat down to the wire.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +4.5
We have a strong NBA playoff system in our favor this evening as plays against favorites that are leading in a playoff series, provided they have a winning percentage of .750 or higher and are matched up against a team with a winning percentage of .600 to .750, are 33-11 ATS since 1996. The favorite has only won by an average of 0.7 points in this situation. It is also worth noting that this system has produced a 7-1 ATS record the last 5 seasons. With this in mind, the Thunder are showing some nice value catching 4.5 points.

In addition, OKC is a perfect 10-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in road games when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. It has won by an average score of 104.1 to 98.6 in this situation.

The Thunder are 6-0 in their last 6 games following a loss, winning those games by an average of 11.0 points. Take the Thunder and the points tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Heat -8
Boston has won 3 in a row versus Miami by 8 points or more and the Heat are laying 8? It's clear odds makers want the public on the Celtics here as they believe Boston won't be as fresh as Miami in Game 1 of this series.

The C's are coming off a grueling 7-game series and have only had 1 day of rest since closing out the 76ers. This is significant because Boston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Heat, who have had 3 days' rest since closing out the Pacers, are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days' rest.

In addition, the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 playoff games as a favorite, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Conference Finals games.

Also, the home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings and the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -5.5
The Spurs, who have won 18 in a row, are in a groove. They have won their last two versus OKC (by 11 and 9 points), and they have won their last 4 at home versus OKC by an average of 12.5 points. The Thunder are just 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings and 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in San Antonio.

The Spurs are 22-4-1 ATS in their last 27 home games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Thunder are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

The Thunder rely on one-on-one play far too much for their scoring as they average just 18 assists per game, a number that drops to 17 on the road. The Spurs, meanwhile, average 23 assists per game, a number that rises to 24 at home. This is significant because San Antonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the 2nd half of this season versus poor passing teams averaging 20 or fewer assists per game. The Spurs have defeated these teams by an average score of 116.9 to 101.3. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics -5.5
The Celtics haven't lost consecutive games since Apr. 4 and 5, and I don't expect them to start now. They are 8-0 in their last 8 games following a loss with an impressive 10.5-point margin of victory.

Boston has been nearly unbeatable on its home floor, winning 10 of its last 11 in the garden. It's 3-1 versus the 76ers during this stretch, winning those 3 contests by an average of 13.7 points.

This current core group of Celtics has a lot more experience in this type of situation than this young Philly squad. This group is 3-1 in Game 7's at home with those 3 victories coming by an average of 16.3 points.

Having had 2 days' rest in between games is also very beneficial to this veteran Celtics teams. The Celtics have had 2 days' rest twice in these playoffs and are 2-0 in the games following. After 2 day's rest following Game 4, Boston returned home to crush the 76ers by 16 points. We'll lay the number.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +3.5
After getting beat up and embarrassed in Game 5 and getting called out by NBA legend Larry Bird, expect the Pacers to respond in a big way at home tonight.

The Heat have been overmatched on the interior without Chris Bosh in the lineup and are even more so now with Udonis Haslem receiving a one-game suspension. I expect the Pacers to really pound it inside, taking advantage of their superior size.

History is in our favor here as good teams that outscore their foes by 3 points or more per game are 143-88 ATS the last 5 seasons following a blowout loss of 15 points or more.

Also, home teams that are out for revenge for a road defeats of 10 points or more, provided they and their opponent both have winning percentages of .600 to .750, are 167-111 since 1996.

It is also worth noting that Indiana is on an 81-50 ATS run when out for revenge for a loss in which it was held to less than 85 points. It has won by an average score of 93.3 to 91.6 in this situation.

The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Pacers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. And, the underdog is 26-12-1 ATS in the last 39 meetings between these teams. Take the points.

4* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on 76ers -1
Let's cut right to the chase. The 76ers are a 100 percent perfect 4-0 in these playoffs following a defeat, winning these games by an average of 7.0 points. I fully expect this trend to continue here.

The 76ers are 4-1 at home in these playoffs. Plus, the home team has won 9 of the last 11 in this series. Also, the Celtics are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 in Philadelphia.

Boston pulled away in the 2nd half for a 16-point win in Game 5. However, it is only 8-20 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Plus, Philly is 30-18 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons.

No team has won back-to-back games in this series, and I don't expect it to start now. Take Philly.

5* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat Under 181
Three of the first four games in this series have finished under the number, and I expect this trend to continue tonight.

With both teams looking to take control of the series, I expect the effort and intensity on the defensive end to be at its highest level of the series.

Miami is an elite defensive team, especially at home where it has played to the under in 26 of 38 games this season. At the end of regulation, these two teams have totaled just 181 points or less in each of their last 3 games in Miami. We saw just 170 and 153 total points scored at the end of regulation in 2 of those games.

The Under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 4-0 in its last 4 games following an ATS win and 9-0 in its last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Also, the Under is 5-0 in Indiana's last 5 games when it has had a day to rest and prepare.

In addition, plays "Under" on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series that is tied are 42-10 the last 5 seasons, 22-6 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 6-0 this season. We'll take the Under.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Lakers +8
Since Game 1, this series has been extremely competitive. Games 2, 3 and 4 were decided by 3 points or less. Expect another close contest tonight as the Lakers fight hard in an attempt to fend off elimination.

Other than a 29-point win in Game 1 and a 16-point win in Game 3 of their first round series with Dallas, the Thunder's other 5 playoff wins have all come by 6 points or less.

The numbers suggest the Thunder are being overvalued here. After all, they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It also can't be ignored that the Lakers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss. Take the points.

5* Eastern Conference Semifinals Game of the Year on Heat -125
This is a "must win" game for the Heat, and I fully expect them to take care of business.

Miami is capable of playing lock-down defense, as we saw in the first two games of this series and the first half of Game 3. The issue has been its offense.

Miami's offensive struggles won't continue. These guys are too good. Dwayne Wade is coming off a forgettable performance and will be very focused here because of it. We can't forget that LeBron James and Wade have a lot more big game experience than this Indiana squad.

The Heat have been a team of response at 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Also, plays on any team that is out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, provided it was upset by 15 points or more in its last game, are 29-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. We have seen the "play on" side win by an average of 3.3 points in this situation. Take Miami.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers +5.5
The Clippers didn't put up much of a fight in San Antonio, but I fully expect them to be a different team at home this afternoon.

Consider that LA is 13-4 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent - this season. It has won by an average score of 95.7 to 91.1 in this situation.

In addition, the Clipps are a strong 15-5 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 3 seasons. They have actually won these contests by an average score of 97.4 to 95.6.

It is also worth noting that LA is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Spurs only defeated the Clippers by 3 points in their only meeting in LA this season. The Clippers also won the previous home game against San Antonio. We'll take the points as the Clipps give the Spurs all they can handle.

5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/76ers Under 174
After allowing Boston to shoot 51.9% from the field in Game 3, we can count on the 76ers to turn up the heat on the defensive end tonight.

Boston always seems to bring it's "D". It should have continued success on the defensive end against a 76ers squad that struggles to score in the half court.

There are more than a few trends in our favor here. Philly is 11-3 Under in home games after one or more consecutive overs this season. It is also 12-3 Under in home games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent this season and 10-1 Under in home games after a game in which it forced 8 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The Under is 4-1 in the 76ers' last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home, 26-10 in their last 36 games as a home favorite and 18-6 in their last 24 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

The Under is 4-1 in the Celtics' last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points and 8-2 in their last 10 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less.

198 total points were scored in Game 3 and odds makers have come back with a line over 20 points lower. They clearly want the money on the Over as they are clearly expecting a defensive battle. We'll bet the Under.

5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on Heat/Pacers Over 181.5
After going under the number in a pair of defensive battles to start the series, expect the Heat and Pacers to have more success on the offensive end tonight.

Right away I love the fact that plays Over on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (Indiana in this case) that have scored 90 points or less in 2 straight games and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off a game with combined score of 175 points or less are 52-30 the last 5 seasons. We've seen an average of 187.3 total points scored in this situation.

In addition, the Over is 5-1-1 in the Heat's last 7 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less, 18-8-1 in the Pacers' last 27 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less, 7-2 in the Pacers' last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 9-4 in the Pacers' last 13 games as a home underdog.

The Heat are 1-for-22 from 3-point range in this series and the Pacers are 7-for-32. We're talking about a pair of teams that average 6 3-point makes a game and shoot them at better than a 35% clip. Expect the shots to start falling tonight and for this one to find its way over the number as a result.

5* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Lakers +8
An embarrassing 29-point loss in Game 1 has certainly gotten LA's attention. Motivated by that defeat and hungry to steal away OKC's home-court advantage, expect the Lakers to show up in a big way tonight.

First off, the Lakers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. When they were blown out by 15 at Denver in Game 3 of their first round series, they responded with a 4-point win. And when they were blown out by 17 in Game 6, they responded with a 9-point victory.

The Thunder, meanwhile, are 0-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. They have only won by an average of 3.7 points in this situation. After exploding to win Game 3 of their first round series by 16, they only defeated Dallas by 6 points in Game 4.

It is also worth noting that the Thunder are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Heat -6.5
The Heat did not play well in Game 1 and still won by 9. Rest assured, they'll play much better tonight. We are getting a nice number here because Chris Bosh is out. We'll gladly take it because I don't expect his absence to be detrimental. Miami is at its best when it is getting out in transition, and it'll look to run more without Bosh on the block.

The Heat are an awesome 32-5 at home on the season. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games winning those contests by an average of 14.6 points. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

The Heat are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Conference Semifinal games while the Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Conference Semifinal games. The Pacers are also 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a loss and 9-27 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the Heat.

5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on 76ers/Celtics Under 174
These 2 combined for 183 points in Game 1 but neither played as well as they are capable of defensively. Philly had shot worse than 40% from the field in 7 of its previous 8 games before Boston allowed it to shoot 43.9%. Also, Philly has held the Bulls below 41.5% shooting in its previous 4 games before it allowed Boston to shoot 43.9%.

Boston ranked No. 2 in the NBA in points allowed per game and No. 1 in field goal percentage defense. Philly ranks 3rd in the NBA in both of those categories. We're talking about a pair of teams that can really tighten the screws on the defensive end. With Philly hungry to steal away Boston's home-court advantage, and with Boston hungry to make quick work of the 76ers in this series, I'm expecting electric defensive efforts from both sides in Game 2.

The Under is 9-3 in the Celtics' last 12 playoff games as a favorite and 20-8 in their last 28 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Under is 4-1 in the 76ers' last 5 overall and 26-10 after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Take the Under.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -7.5
Memphis has all the momentum on its side following wins in Games 5 and 6, and I fully expect it to roll at home in Game 7 tonight.

The Grizzlies are more battle tested having played in a pair of tough playoff series last season. They are also the healthier side.

Memphis has won 6 of its last 8 at home versus the Clippers with one of those losses coming in Game 1 when it blew a 27-point lead. Keep in mind that those 6 wins have come by an average of 11.3 points.

According to a closing line of +2.5 at some books, the Clippers actually covered the spread in Friday's 2-point loss. That bodes extremely well for us as plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent, provided they enter off an ATS victory in a game they lost SU, are 84-39 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have lost by an average of 9.9 points in this situation.

It's also important to note that the Clippers are only 1-11 ATS off a cover in a game they lost SU over the last 2 seasons. They have lost by an average of 9.0 points in this situation.

The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Also, the Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Lay the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Lakers -5.5
The odds are in our favor here considering only 8 teams have ever come back from a 3-1 deficit. Plus, Kobe Bryant is 4-1 all-time in Game 7's. He'll be ready to go, and I expect his teammates will as well after he called them out following Thursday's loss. The Lakers should also get a lift on the defensive end from Metta World Peace, who has served his suspension.

The Lakers are 28-8 at home on the season and have won 31 of their last 37 at home versus Denver.

Historically speaking, LA's double-digit loss in Game 6 bodes well for us here for a number of reasons. First off, the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points.

Also, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponents, provided they are a good team (60-75% winning percentage) and matched up against a team with a winning record, are 62-32 ATS the last 5 seasons.

In addition, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 45-19 ATS the last 5 season.

Lastly, the Lakers are 21-8 ATS in their last 28 games when tied in a playoff series since 1996. They've won these games by an average of 6.9 points. Take the Lakers.

5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Grizzlies -117
I still love the Grizzlies laying small change but am taking them on the money line for insurance on my investment.

I felt Memphis was the better team heading into this series, and I still believe that to be the case. The Grizzlies could have just as easily punched their ticket to the 2nd round by now as opposed to facing a 3-2 deficit. They blew a 27-point lead in Game 1 and they lost Games 3 and 4 in L.A. by narrow margins. They led Game 3 71-64 heading into the 4th and ended up losing by a single point. They lost Game 4 in OT.

L.A. made another late run on the Grizzlies in Game 5, but they were able to hold on for a 12-point victory. That win has them believing they can close out games.

All the pressure is on L.A. to close the series out tonight because it doesn't want to go back to Memphis. Teams usually don't perform well under pressure, and unfortunately for the Clippers, top players Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are banged up. I expect both of them to be bothered by their injuries tonight but fully expect Memphis to win this game even if both play well.

It is significant that odds makers have favored the Grizzlies here because they are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or fewer. The favorite is also 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two. The Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

The experience gained by playing a couple tough playoff series' last year will also greatly benefit the Grizzlies tonight. Take Memphis.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Hawks +6.5
All the pressure is on Boston to close out the series at home tonight. Otherwise it faces a tough Game 7 in Atlanta where the Hawks have won 2 of 3 in the series. The Hawks have the luxury of playing with nothing to lose. They're on the road and not expected to win. They can roll the dice and that makes them dangerous catching 6.5 big ones.

Boston could very well take care of business here, but doing so by 7 points or more isn't very likely. After all, the Hawks have either won or lost by 6 points or less in 7 of their last 9 and 14 of their last 19 versus the Celtics.

These two teams play a lot of close games, which is a big reason why the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. It is also worth noting that the road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

In addition, the Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Celtics are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points as I expect this one to go right down to the wire.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -6
Back home off back-to-back losses in L.A. and needing a win to stay alive in the series, I expect the Grizzlies to rise to the occasion.

Memphis is 27-8 in home games this season, winning them by an average of 6.3 points. They won Game 2 at home by 7 and blew a 27-point lead in Game 1 so they are more than capable of covering this number.

There are a number of trends in our favor as well. Under coach Hollins, the Grizzlies are 53-34 ATS when out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent. They are also 58-33 ATS under Hollins when out for revenge for a loss in which it allowed its foe to score 100 points or more.

Memphis is 17-6 ATS when it checks into a contest following loses in 3 of its last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. It is also an impressive 36-16-2 ATS in its last 54 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

Recent history suggests this is the time to fade the Clippers as they are a poor 35-57 ATS in their last 92 road games after 2 or more consecutive wins. They are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Lay the points with Memphis.

4* NBA SMASH on Bulls -4.5
The fact odds makers have made the Bulls this large of a favorite following 3 straight losses to the 76ers is significant. That's because home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a loss to a team that held them to less than 85 points, provided the home side has a winning percentage of 60-75% and is matched up against a foe with a winning record, are 40-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these situation parameters have won by an average of 11.1 points.

In addition, Chicago is a potent 14-4 ATS when out for revenge for 3 straight losses to an opponents over the last 3 seasons.

The Bulls are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Also, the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

The Bulls are without 2 key pieces, but they still have enough talent to get the job done tonight. We'll lay the points as home court makes all the difference in this do-or-die spot.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks -1
Back home, where they are 24-11 on the season, and extremely motivated following an embarrassing Game 4 loss, expect the Hawks to fend off elimination tonight.

The Hawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 first round playoff games and 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home games in the first round of the playoffs. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

The Hawks are also 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite, 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite.

The Celtics, on the other hand, are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog. Boston is also 18-34 ATS since the beginning of last season following a win by 10 points or more and 7-19 ATS during the same time frame after a blowout win by 15 points or more. Take the Hawks.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +8.5
The Jazz have been handed 3 consecutive double-digit defeats in this series but they won't go down without a fight tonight, not in front of the home fans.

We can't forget that the Jazz are an impressive 25-9 on their home floor this season. Plus, they have either won or lost to the Spurs by 7 points or less in 11 of their last 14 at home in the series.

The Spurs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Lakers +2.5
Motivated by Friday's 15-point loss, expect the Lakers to come storming back in Game 4.

The Lakers, who are 4-1 in their last 5 games versus the Nuggets, are showing a lot of value here considering they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or fewer and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

The Nuggets are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win.

LA doesn't want this series to go the distance. It will leave it all on the floor tonight in hopes of taking complete control of the series. We'll take the points as LA bounces back with a win.

4* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Jazz +6
At home following back-to-back blowout losses, expect Utah to save face with a strong performance tonight. The Jazz were one of the best home teams in the NBA this season at 25-8. Plus, they have either won or lost to the Spurs by 6 points or less in 10 of their last 13 at home in the series.

Recent history suggests the Spurs have been overvalued here as they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It also can't be overlooked that the Jazz are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We'll take the points.

5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Grizzlies/Clippers Under 187
Right away I like the under here considering plays under on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series that is tied, provided we have a team with a winning record playing another winning team, are 32-8 (80%) the last 5 seasons. We've seen an average posted total of 185.1 points in these games and an average combined score of only 180.8.

After a pair of uncharacteristic defensive efforts from a Memphis squad that is among the best defensive teams in the league, I'm expecting the screws to be tightened here. The Clippers are 11-0 under in home games the last 3 seasons versus good pressure defensive teams that force 16 turnovers per game or more.

The under is 8-1 in the Grizzlies' last 9 road games and 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. The under is also 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two in L.A.

It is also worth noting that the Clippers are a much better defensive team at home. With each of these teams looking for the upper hand in the series, I'm expecting a very intense defensive battle today. We'll bet the under.

4* NBA SMASH on Magic +5
Off back-to-back double-digit losses to the Pacers, including an embarrassing 23-point loss at home last time out, expect the Magic to play with a sense of desperation in Game 4.

The Magic are an impressive 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. We can count on Stan Van Gundy having his troops ready to go here as his teams are 16-5 ATS all-time following a blowout loss by 20 points or more. His squads have actually won by an average of 5.3 points in this situation.

The Pacers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite. The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the points.

4* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Nuggets -3.5
At home following losses in the first two games of this series, the Nuggets will bounce back strong tonight.

Denver has done a good job of pushing the pace in this series, but it hasn't shot the ball well. Rest assured, the shots will fall easier at home where the Nuggets are shooting 47.9% on the season.

The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss while the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. It is also worth noting that the Lakers have been a fool's gold underdog in the postseason at 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. The Nuggets are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite.

It's already do-or-die time for the Nugs considering the daunting history of teams facing 0-3 deficits. They'll show up in a big way tonight.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Bulls +1.5
Motivated by an embarrassing loss in Game 2, expect the Bulls to make a statement that they can win this series without Rose tonight.

Chicago doesn't take losses lightly. In fact, it is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when out for revenge for a same-season loss. It has won these games by an average score of 93.7 to 81.3. The 81.3 points the Bulls have held their foes to in this spot tells us they have tightened the screws defensively in the rematch.

The Bulls are 38-14-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a loss, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less.

The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. Bet the Bulls.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks +6
The Knicks may be without Amare Stoudemire tonight but they can't be counted out at home. New York went 9-4 in the 13 games Stoudemire missed down the stretch. The Knicks are actually a better defensive team without him on the floor.

The Knicks have lost each of the first two games of this series by double digits but are on an impressive 20-6 ATS run following consecutive road losses of 10 points or more. They have won by an average score of 98.1 to 95.0 in this situation.

New York's recent home court dominance also can't be ignored. Since Mike Woodson took over as interim coach on Mar. 14, the Knicks have gone 11-1 SU and ATS at home.

Miami has won all 5 meetings with the Knicks this season by at least 8 points. By installing Miami as less than an 8-point favorite, they are begging for the money to roll in on the Heat. They're looking for a big payday with a New York cover, but they won't have my money. We'll take the points as the Knicks take the Heat down to the wire.

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Clippers/Grizzlies Under 185.5
After blowing a 27-point lead by giving up 35 fourth-quarter points in Game 1, I expect an inspired defensive effort from one of the best defensive teams in the league tonight. The score should come in under this number as a result.

The under is 14-6 in the Grizzlies' last 20 overall, 21-8 in their last 29 games following a loss and 8-2 in Grizzlies last 10 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Also, Memphis is 19-7 under when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season and 9-1 under off an upset loss this season. As you can see by these trends, Memphis responds following losses by tightening the screws on the defensive end. Plus, it will be very fresh having not played since Sunday.

In addition, plays under on road teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a game involving two teams that allow 92-98 ppg and following a win by 3 points or less are 31-12 the last 5 seasons. We've only seen an average of 181.1 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Nuggets +6
Denver's 103-88 Game 1 loss places it in a strong historical situation tonight. Consider that plays on road teams - explosive offensive team scoring 103+ points/game on the season - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 103-58 ATS since 1996. This system is an awesome 73-32 ATS the last 5 seasons.

In addition, the Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, 36-15 ATS in their last 51 road games, 30-12 ATS in their last 42 games as an underdog, 28-10 ATS in their last 38 games as a road underdog and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Lakers are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a win, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Pacers -8.5
The Magic are not the same team without Dwight Howard. They took Game 1 but only managed 81 points. The Pacers have matchup advantages all over the court, especially inside, and I expect them to do a much better job of exploiting the mismatches in Game 2.

The Pacers only shot 34.5 percent from the field in Game 1, but don't expect them to shoot that poorly again versus an Orlando squad that has allowed its foes to shoot around 45 percent.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a loss in which they were held to 85 points or less, a good team (.600-.750 winning percentage ) playing a team with a winning record, are 39-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 11.0 points. Lay the number with the Pacers.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -5.5
Memphis has the edge at home, where it is 26-7 with a 6.4-point average margin of victory. The Grizzlies were almost unbeatable at home in last year's playoffs, going 5-1 with those 5 wins coming by an average of 9.8 points.

The Grizzlies enter the playoffs having won 11 in a row at home with those wins coming by an average of 7.5 points. This run is significant because plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off 3 or more consecutive home wins, in April games, are 44-14 ATS since 1996, including a perfect 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 6.6 points but have won by an average of 10.6.

The Clippers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. They aren't nearly as good on the road and lost their lone regular season meeting in Memphis by 9 points. Take the Grizzlies.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +7.5
The defending NBA champs won't go down without a fight. The Thunder won 3 of 4 meetings during the regular season, but their wins only came by an average of 5.0 points. In other words, the Mavs are showing some nice value with this line.

In addition, the Mavericks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinal games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record.

The road team is 24-8-2 ATS in the last 34 meetings between these teams and the underdog is 17-4-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Also, the Mavs are 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 road meetings in this series. We'll take the points.

4* NBA SMASH on Magic +9.5
The Magic may be without Dwight Howard but shouldn't be catching this many points. They are still very dangerous because of their ability to knock down 3-point shots. Orlando led the league in 3-pointers made and attempted and was third in percentage (.375).

The Magic are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Pacers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite. The Magic are also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Indiana.

I think the players on this Orlando team will be looking to send a message to Howard that they are better than he gives them credit for, that they can win without him. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Clippers +3.5
This is a game the Clippers must have. They can earn home-court in the first round of the playoffs with a win or a Memphis loss to Orlando Thursday. With Dwight Howard out, they know they can't count on the Magic to pull off that upset.

NY can still move up to the sixth seed if it wins its final two games and the Magic lose their last two, but I don't see Orlando losing at home to Charlotte tonight. The Knicks don't either. That's why they seriously have to think about losing this game. If I'm the Knicks, I want the Bulls in the first round, not the Heat. New York has played Chicago much tougher than Miami this season. With that said, I like the Clippers here even if the Knicks go after this game.

The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. We'll take the Clippers and the points.

5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Jazz -4
Motivated by an opportunity to punch their postseason ticket, and further fueled by 7 consecutive losses to the Suns, expect the Jazz to take care of business tonight.

Utah has been very strong at home all season with a 23-8 SU and 18-12-1 ATS record. It enters tonight's contest having won 4 straight and 13 of its last 16 at home with wins over the Lakers, Heat, Thunder, Nuggets, Spurs and Mavs during this stretch. In other words, Utah is fully capable of ending its skid against Phoenix in impressive fashion at home tonight.

The Jazz are a dominant 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. The fact that Utah has been shooting the ball well from deep also bodes well for us.

The Jazz haven't been reliant on the 3-point shot this season, but they have made 26 of 53 3-point attempts during their current 3-game winning streak. It is significant that they made 50% of their attempts from long range last game because they are a perfect 10-0 ATS in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 3 seasons. They haven't just won these games, they've won them by an average score of 111.3 to 94.9.

Both teams have had 2 days to gear up for this one but the Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest while the Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Take Utah.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +10.5
The Bobcats are the worst team in the NBA and quite possibly the worst team ever. They need a win in one of their final three games to avoid the NBA's all-time worst winning percentage. With Orlando and New York up next, this is their best chance to avoid falling into the history books for all the wrong reasons. I expect Charlotte to go after this game hard.

Fading Washington as a favorite has been a very strong play this season. According to the closing line, the Wizards have been favored 10 times this season going 3-7 ATS in those games, including 0-6 ATS in their last 6. In other words, this is not a team that can be trusted laying points, especially this many.

The Wizards have won 3 in a row with 2 of those wins coming against the Bulls and Heat but it should be noted that Deng and Rose weren't in the lineup for the Bulls and Bosh and James didn't suit up for the Heat (Wade only played 2 minutes before leaving with an injury).

We'll take the points.

5* NBA Total of the Week on Magic/Nuggets Under 203.5
A much better defensive effort from the Magic will keep this one under the number.

After giving up triple-digits for a third straight game, coach Van Gundy has called out his team. "We just cannot guard," Van Gundy said. "I don't think it is that our guys are not trying, I don't know what it is, but we cannot guard anyone. We can't guard anyone ... Our defense is disturbing to say the least."

Orlando is a perfect 9-0 under dating back to the start of last season after allowing 110 points or more in its last game. We have seen just 185.5 total points scored in this situation.

In addition, the under is 8-3 in the Magic's last 11 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 7-2 in the Nuggets' last 9 games as a favorite. The under is also 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +5
Having already locked up the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, the Pacers can sit back and relax. The 76ers, meanwhile, should play with a greater sense of urgency as they try to avoid a potentially crucial matchup in Milwaukee on Wednesday. With a win and a Milwaukee loss to New Jersey, Philly would clinch the final playoff spot in the East.

Indiana is receiving plenty of recognition for its play this month, which bodes well for us as the books know which team the public will be backing. The Pacers have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games, which is significant because they are only 1-12 ATS this season following covers in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. They have lost by an average score of 96.4 to 92.2 in this situation.

The 76ers have either won or played Indiana to within 5 points in 4 of the last 6 meetings. I expect the 76ers to be the more desperate team. Take the points.

4* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Mavericks -12
The defending NBA champs need just one win to clinch a playoff spot. With this being their last home game and with dates against playoff teams Chicago and Atlanta on deck, you can bet they'll go after this game hard.

The Warriors are depleted by injuries and have lost 6 straight and 13 of their last 15 as a result. Their last 6 defeats have come by an average of 16.2 points.

The Mavs are 9-1 in their last 10 home games versus the Warriors with 6 of those wins coming by 13 points or more and 5 coming by 20 points or more. We'll lay the points.

4* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* (TNT) on Suns -2
Sitting a half game behind Utah for the eighth and final playoff spot, the Suns will leave it all on the floor tonight.

Phoenix lost to Oklahoma City last night, but is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a SU loss, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following an ATS loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing without a day of rest.

It is also worth noting that the Suns are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

The Suns have won 4 of the last 5 in the series overall and 9 in a row at home. We'll bet the Suns.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks +5.5
Two-and-a-half games out of the 8th spot, the Bucks can't afford another loss. We'll get behind this desperate team catching points tonight.

The Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games, and the road team is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Bucks are also 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Indiana. It's also worth noting that the underdog is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Milwaukee has won 3 of its last 4 trips to Indiana with the lone loss in this stretch coming by a single point.

The Pacers have been playing well, but recent history tells us this is the time to fade them. After all, they are 0-12 ATS this season after covering the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. They have lost by an average score of 95.3 to 90.1 in this situation. We'll bet the Bucks.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -3
The Clippers have won 4 in a row and 12 of 14, have a pair of wins over the Thunder in their last 4 games, have won 2 of 3 versus Denver this season and they're getting 3 points? The books clearly want the money on the Clipps. We won't give in.

The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

It is also worth noting that the Nuggets are 64-45 ATS under coach Karl in home games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. The Nugs have won by an average of 7.4 points in this situation.

The Clippers blew out OKC 92-77 in their last game but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points. Expect this trend to continue. Lay the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers -3
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 111-94 loss to Indiana last month, expect the 76ers to take care of business at home tonight.

This is Philly's last home game of the season, a game it desperately needs as it's fading fast in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

The 76ers opened as a 3.5-point favorite at most books, which is significant because favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent, provided that foe checks in off a home blowout win of 20 points or more, are 38-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 10.1 points.

It is also worth noting that Philly is 26-15 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons.

The Pacers have covered the spread in 3 straight but are only 8-21 ATS after successfully covering the number in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. They've lost by an average of 5.1 points in this spot.

Lastly, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll lay the points with the home team tonight.

4* NBA SMASH on Rockets -4.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, including an embarrassing 15-point loss to Denver Sunday, expect the Rockets to bounce back strong here.

The Rockets know they can't afford another defeat as they try to hold on to the last playoff slot in the West.

Houston has been very strong at home this season. In fact, it is 8-1 ATS in home games following a road loss this season. In addition, it is 8-0 ATS all-time under coach McHale when playing the second game of a back-to-back at home. It has won these games by an average of 8.1 points.

The Nuggets are a lousy 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a win and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games when playing without a day of rest. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +8.5
Motivated by Saturday's loss to Boston and further fueled by losses to Miami in each of the season's first two meetings, including an embarrassing 30-point loss last month, expect the Nets to save face with a strong performance tonight.

Saturday we won with the T-Wolves as we expected them to treat their matchup with the Thunder like Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The same strategy paid off Sunday as the Pistons left it all on the floor against the Bulls. We'll stick with this strategy here.

The Nets may not get up for another game this season, but they'll get up for this one. The Heat, meanwhile, will have a difficult time putting the Nets away by double digits after playing a game Sunday. The Heat are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

This is the biggest game remaining on New Jersey's schedule, and I expect them to go after it hard. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Pistons +9.5
Motivated by an embarrassing 113-97 home loss to Milwaukee last game, and further fueled by losses in each of the season's first 3 meetings with Chicago, expect the Pistons to show up in a big way here.

This is the biggest game remaining on Detroit's schedule, and similar to Minnesota (who got up for OKC Saturday) it will treat it like Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

Friday's loss to Milwaukee is significant because the Pistons are a near-perfect 9-1 ATS in home games off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. They have actually won by an average score of 104.6 to 99.2 in this situation. Also, the Pistons are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog.

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and I expect this trend to continue Sunday. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +11
Motivated by 8 straight defeats and 11 consecutive losses to the Thunder, expect the Timberwolves to play some inspired basketball at home tonight.

An injury to Ricky Rubio derailed Minnesota's playoff hopes and now it is dealing with an injury to Kevin Love. Still, the T-Wolves have enough fire power with guys like Derrick Williams, Wesley Johnson, Jose Barea, Michael Beasley and Anthony Randolph to cover this number. With the postseason out of the question, this game will be Minnesota's Super Bowl (so to speak).

The Thunder, meanwhile, will be much more concerned about their next opponent, the Clippers, who defeated them Wednesday.

As I already mentioned, OKC has won 11 straight in the series. However, only 1 of those wins has come by more than 11 points. In addition, Minnesota has either won or lost to the Sonics/Thunder by fewer than 11 points in 8 straight home meetings. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Bucks -4.5
The Bucks need a win tonight for any hope of staying in the playoff hunt. Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by a loss to Detroit in the most recent meeting, expect Milwaukee to take care of business here.

Right away I love the fact that road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that check in off a home defeat and are out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent are 56-26 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this system have been favored by an average of 5.5 points and have won by an average of 7.2.

In addition, Milwaukee is 30-16 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. It is also 7-1 ATS in its last 8 road games and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.

The Pistons recorded a 24-point win at Charlotte last night to conclude a 7-day road trip. This is significant because they are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. We'll bet the Bucks.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -5.5
The Spurs basically conceded defeat Monday against the Jazz with coach Pop thinking it was more important for Duncan, Parker and Ginobli to get rest. The trio was back in action last night but clearly didn't take the Bryant-less Lakers as seriously as they should have. Following that embarrassing loss, expect the Spurs to bounce back strong against a team they have owned this season.

The Spurs have clearly been motivated against the Grizzlies, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. They have won each of this season's three meetings by an average of 9.3 points, winning the lone home meeting by 13.

History is on our side here when you consider that plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - a good offensive team (scoring 98-102 PPG) against an average offensive team (scoring 92-98 PPG), after scoring 85 points or less - are 40-12 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by 6.3 points on average and have won by 11.6 on average. This system is 20-3 ATS the last 3 seasons.

The Spurs are 24-9-3 ATS in their last 36 games overall, 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss.

The Grizzlies are just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. We'll lay the points.

4* NBA SMASH on Grizzlies -5.5
After losing the season's first 2 meetings in Phoenix, expect the Grizzlies to have their revenge at home tonight. They have won 3 of their last 4 at home against the Suns with those wins coming by 17, 7 and 10 points.

Memphis is 23-12 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent - over the last 2 seasons and 52-31 ATS when playing with double revenge under coach Hollins.

I like Memphis tonight because it is the superior defensive squad. It has held 10 straight opponents under the century mark and it has held its last 3 under 90 points. It only gave up 85 to the Clippers last game and that's significant because it is 8-1 ATS after allowing 85 points or less this season. It has won by an average of 8.6 points in this situation. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +3.5
This is a letdown spot for the Celtics following last night's big win in Miami. This is also a revenge spot for the Hawks, who lost by 3 at home to the C's last month.

History tells us that Boston's offensive outburst last night sets it up for failure here as it is just 1-11 ATS in home games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. It has only won these games by an average of 1.8 points.

It's also worth noting that the C's are 11-25 ATS in the 2nd game of a back-to-back over the last 2 seasons. It's losing by an average of 0.4 points in these games.

The Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Hawks have won 5 of the last 8 meetings in this series, and I like their chances of winning another against Boston tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers -5
Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats and a 7-point loss to New Jersey in the season's first meeting, expect the 76ers to bounce back strong tonight.

Right away I love the fact that plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - good team outscoring its opponents by 3 points per game or more, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more - are 62-31 ATS since 1996. Team fitting into this system, which is 31-10 ATS the last 5 seasons and 16-5 ATS the last 3 seasons, have been favored by an average of 6.0 points and have won by an average of 8.3.

Philly has lost 4 in a row, but 3 of those losses have come to Miami, Orlando and Boston. Consider that it is 17-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season, defeating these foes by an average of 11.9 points. It is also 13-4 ATS versus poor teams that are getting outscored by their opponents by 3 points per game or more this season. It has defeated these foes by an average of 12.9 points.

The 76ers are 18-6 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the Nets. Those 5 wins have come by an average of 14.2 points.

The Nets are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 home games, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 1-8 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. We'll lay the points.

4* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Trail Blazers -3.5
Off an embarrassing loss at Milwaukee and out to avenge a pair of defeats to Houston, expect the Blazers to bounce back strong at home tonight.

Portland is 30-14 ATS in its last 44 games when out for revenge for 2 consecutive upset losses to an opponent. It has won by an average score of 98.0 to 90.8 in this situation.

The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. Also, they are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest. Lay the number.

4* NBA Super System Smoker on Nuggets -8
Saturday's 112-97 loss at Golden State puts the Nuggets in an extremely profitable situation tonight. Consider that plays on any team out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, and checking in off an upset loss by 15 points or more, are 28-9 (76%) ATS the last 5 seasons.

It is also worth noting that the Warriors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a win of more than 10 points.

The Nuggets have won 6 of their last 7 at home in this series with those 6 wins coming by an average of 15.0 points. We'll lay the number.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -4
The Grizzlies have won 7 of their last 9 games with wins over the Lakers, Thunder and Heat during this stretch. Keep in mind that these 3 keys wins came by 6, 6 and 15 points respectively. Also, keep in mind that these 3 wins came on the road.

At home, where the Grizzlies are 19-7 on the season, I expect them to continue their strong play against the Clippers.

The Clippers have won the season's first 2 meetings, but both of those came in LA. Rest assured, things will go much differently tonight. The Grizzlies are 51-31 ATS in their last 82 games when playing with double revenge. They are also 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less and 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. We'll lay the number.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +4
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and eager to stay in the Atlantic division race, expect the 76ers to bounce back strong against a team they have dominated this season.

Philly has won each of this season's meetings with Boston by 32 and 13 points respectively. It is also worth noting that it has either won or lost by 4 points or less in 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 9 meetings.

Both teams played yesterday, but Philly should be the fresher team as it had 2 days off prior to last night's contest. Boston, meanwhile, will be playing its 4th game in 5 days. The Celtics are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games when playing without a day of rest and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The fact Boston enters off a double-digit win is also significant because it is just 24-49-2 ATS in its last 75 games following a win of more than 10 points.

The 76ers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and we'll grab the points with them here.

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Celtics +2
This is a major letdown spot for Indiana, which is playing its second game in as many nights following a big win over the Thunder. This is a major bounce back spot for Boston, however, following back-to-back losses and getting called out by coach Doc Rivers following Thursday's loss to Chicago.

"I had to use two timeouts ... to remind us that we are actually having an NBA game tonight," Rivers said. "I thought this was the worst loss for us this year the way we approached the game."

I fully expect this veteran squad to respond.

The fact Boston has had a day to gear up is huge considering it is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games when playing without a day of rest.

It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less while the Pacers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

Also, Indiana is 0-9 ATS this season after covering the number in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. It is losing by an average score of 95.8 to 89.1 in this situation.

Boston will have fresher legs and it will be the hungrier side tonight. Take the Celtics.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Thunder -155
Motivated by losing consecutive games for just the 2nd time all season, expect the Thunder to bounce back strong tonight.

Following back-to-back defeats on Jan. 2-3, the Thunder rebounded with a 15-point win over Houston. I expect them to take care of business again versus an Indiana squad they have defeated by 24 and 4 in the last 2 meetings.

I like the Thunder on the point spread but love them on the money line at this price. OKC is 24-11 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 104.8 to 99.4 in this situation. It is also 16-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 102.3 to 95.4 in this situation.

Indiana is 11-22 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons, 6-20 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons and 1-8 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season.

The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 39-17-1 ATS in their last 57 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or fewer. We'll take the Thunder.