4* Spurs/Clippers NBA Vegas Insider on Spurs +

The home team is just 1-4 in the last 5 games of the series and that lone win was the Spurs 100-73 blowout victory in Game 3. I look for the trend of the road dominance to continue in Game 7. Unlike the Clippers, San Antonio knows how to close out a series.

The big key here for me is that the Clippers have had to rely so much on their starters that it's hard for me to envision them having enough left in the tank to pull out the win. They clearly wanted it more than the Spurs in Game 6, but now we are going to see San Antonio lay it all on the line and they have a lot more gas left in the tank.

Spurs are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 playoff games when tied in a series, 20-7 in their last 27 off a home loss and 24-7 in their last 31 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-pointers. These trends combine to form a strong 73% (72-26) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks -

While the series hasn't played out the same as the Bulls/Bucks, I believe we are going to see Atlanta rise up to the occasion, just like the Bulls did in Game 5, and put this series to rest.

I don't think the Hawks expected to get this much fight out of Brooklyn, but now that the series can be closed out, I look for them to come out with their best showing. The books simply haven't set the line high enough given the circumstances. If Atlanta wins like I'm expecting, there's a really good chance they win by at least 4-points.

Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games are 106-60 ATS since 1996! That's a 64% system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta! 

5* Bulls/Bucks NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls -

It's almost as if the Bulls thought the Bucks were going to lay down and give them the series after they took a commanding 3-0 lead. That hasn't been the case at all, as Milwaukee has won 2 straight. Most of that is a result of the Bucks wanting it more. I don't believe that will be the case tonight, as I look for Chicago to come out and treat this like Game 7. The Bulls are the better team and I'll take my chances on them closing this thing out and doing so by at least 4-points.

Bucks are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games after successfully covering 2 or more straight games and 1-9 in their last 10 home games off 2 or more consecutive wins. Chicago is 25-12 in their last 37 after failing to cover 2 or more straight games and 7-1 in their last 8 when playing with 2 days of rest. These trends add up to form a 74% (60-21) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Nets/Hawks UNDER

I believe we are seeing a major overreaction here from the books due to Game 4's high-scoring affair that saw the Hawks/Nets combine for 235 points. Only 208 of those game in regulation, as the two combined for 27 in overtime.

Each of the first 3 games in the series finished with 191 or less, including a mere 174 in Game 3. Defense has the edge as these series progress, which is why I'm not expecting to see a repeat of the strong shooting percentages from Game 4, where Atlanta hit 48.4% from the field and Brooklyn 47.9%. Keep in mind that even with both teams red-hot, they only went over the posted total for Game 5 by a mere 8-points in regulation.

UNDER is 12-2 in the Nets last 14 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots and 12-3 in their last 15 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points. UNDER is also 4-1 in Atlanta's last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-1 in their last 5 following a game where they failed to cover. These trends add up to form a strong 82% (32-7) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Mavs/Rockets UNDER

While 3 of the first 4 games in the series have seen at least 126 combined points scored, I believe there's simply too much value here with tonight's total. Keep in mind that the first game in the series had a total of just 213 points, so there's some big time inflation going on with the total here eclipsing 220.

Houston's defense was non-existent in the last two games, but they were a lot better on that side of the ball at home in the first two games of the series. With a chance to close out the series and get some rest before taking on either the Clippers or Spurs, I look for the Rockets to really get after it on that side of the ball at home. As good as they are offensively, they don't want to get in a shootout with Dallas.

UNDER is 7-2 in Mavericks last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record and 13-6 in their last 19 after a game where they covered the spread. UNDER is also 33-17 in Dallas' last 50 road games after 2 straight games where they shot 50% or better from the field. These trends combine to form a strong 68% (53-25) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks -

The Hawks have had a surprisingly tough time with the Nets so far in the series and are coming off a 83-91 defeat in Game 3. Atlanta clearly hasn't played to the same level as we saw early on the regular season, but I'm not about to give up on the Hawks.

Atlanta's struggles in the last two games have simply been a result of poor shooting. The Hawks shot just 38.9% from the field in Game 2 and 35.6% in Game 3. The key thing to note is that they are getting good looks and with the shooters they have it's only a matter of time before they get going.

The Nets are playing with a hobbled Deron Williams and to this point have over-achieved in the series. It's also important to note that Brooklyn doesn't have much of a homecourt advantage, as they went just 19-22 at home during the regular season.

Hawks are 23-13 ATS this season when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 after playing their previous game on the road. Atlanta is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing on a full days rest. These trends combine to form a strong 67% (41-20) system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta!

5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Clippers +

This is a perfect spot to back the Clippers in Game 4. After dominating Game 1 107-92, LA gave one away in Game 2 in overtime and were simply outplayed in Game 3 at San Antonio. As a result of the Spurs 100-73 win in Game 3, we have seen this line jump quite a bit. The Spurs were just a 4.5-point favorite in Game 3 and are now laying 6 at home in Game 4. 

I'll gladly take the points as insurance, but I really like the Clippers chances of winning this game outright. LA couldn't buy a basket in Game 3 and you could see it had a negative effect on their play defensively. I'm confident the Clippers will shoot better than 34% in Game 4. 

Road underdogs revenging a home loss of 20 or more points against an opponent against an opponent off a home win by 10+ points are 47-20 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% long-term system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!

5* Grizzlies/Blazers NBA No Limit Top Play on Trail Blazers -

After getting embarrassed in the first two games of the series at Memphis, I look for the Trail Blazers to bounce back in a big way at home in Game 3. Portland finished the regular season with one of the top home records in the league at 32-9 and I'm confident they will answer the call with their season on the line.

The Trail Blazers certainly can't shoot any worse than they have to start the series. After going just 33.7% from the field in Game 1, Portland shot just 39% in Game 2. Their defense actually did a decent job against the Grizzlies, holding them under 45% in both games. Portland shot 45% from the field at home in the regular season and I believe the comfort of home will be the difference in this one.

Counting their final regular season game, where they shot just 41.8% at Dallas, we find Portland in a very profitable spot here, as they are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games after shooting 42% or worse in their last 3 games. It's also worth noting that road underdogs who have won 3 or more straight home games and are playing just their 5th game in 14 days are a mere 10-32 ATS since 1996. That's a 76% long-term system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland!

4* Wizards/Raptors NBA Vegas Insider on Raptors +

The Raptors became just the 5th team since 2002 to fall behind 0-2 with homecourt advantage in their first two games. The good news for Toronto is that each of the previous 4 in this spot have not only went on to cover the spread in Game 3, but have won the contest outright.

I believe we are going to see this trend continue. Despite how poorly the Raptors played in those first two games at home, they had a chance to win both of those. Washington isn't a team with a lot of playoff experience, which could have them lowering their guard and not quite understanding the importance of this game.

Toronto won the only regular season meeting at Washington 120-116 as a 5-point dog and were up by 15-points at the half. Wizards are just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games when listed as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, while Toronto is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games after failing to cover 2 or more consecutive games and 7-0 in their last 7 road games after playing their last game as a home favorite. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (42-13) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!

5* Bucks/Bulls NBA No Limit Top Play on Bucks +

This line alone is telling you that the oddsmakers are expecting the Bucks to win Game 3, as the betting public will be all over Chicago with this low line. The Bulls won Game 1 by 12 and Game 2 by 9, but both of those games were closer than than the final score would indicate.

While Chicago certainly doesn't want this series to drag out, they have a nice 2-0 cushion and could be focused more on saving up for Game 4 and looking to close out the series in Game 5. Either way I like the Bucks chances of pulling off the upset here.

Keep in mind the Bulls will be missing a big piece to the puzzle, as Nikola Mirotic is out with a quad injury suffered in Game 2. He's a big loss, as he does everything well and allows the Bulls to space the floor offensively with his ability to hit the 3-point shot.

Bucks are 20-9 ATS this season after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 following 2 or more consecutive losses. Take Milwaukee!

5* Spurs/Clippers NBA Vegas Insider on Clippers -

The Clippers dominated Game 1 of the series 107-92. While most will be looking to back the Spurs in huge rebound spot, I believe the real value here is with Los Angeles at basically a pick'em at home. San Antonio simply has no answer for Griffin and Paul and figure to be in even more trouble with Tony Parker nursing an ankle injury.

Backing the team that loss the previous game in a playoff series is typically a strong investment, but that's not the case given the circumstances for this matchup. Coming into the playoffs, road teams off a road loss with a -3.5 to +3.5 have gone just 28-55-1 (33.7%) ATS since 2002.

Keep in mind that the Clippers have now won three straight against the Spurs and that San Antonio is just 1-8 ATS this season in road games against teams that have won between 60% to 70% of their games (0-7 last 7). They are also just 9-21 ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games in the 2nd half against teams scoring 103+ ppg. On the other hand LA is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games when playing with 2 days of rest. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (50-19) system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Total Top Play on Mavs/Rockets UNDER

These two teams combined for 226 points in Game 1, easily surpassing the total of 213. That high-scoring affair has forced the books to raise the total by 2.5-points and thus creating some great value on the UNDER.

The defensive intensity is at a different level in the playoffs and it gets turned up a notch after the first game of the series. Dallas tried to focus all their attention on Harden in Game 1 and it backfired with the other guys stepping up. Head coach Rick Carlisle is one of the best ad making adjustments in the playoffs and I look for the Mavericks to do a much better job defensively in Game 2.

It's important to note that these two teams played 4 times during the regular season and all 4 of those meetings finished with fewer than 211 points. One of things that gets overlooked is how good defensively the Rockets were given their pace. Houston ranked 6th in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season.

UNDER is 12-4 in Mavericks last 16 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent and 13-5 in the Rockets last 18 when facing a team that's won 60% to 70% of their games. Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 30-8 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off 2 or more consecutive overs (HOU) against an opponent off 6 or more consecutive overs (DAL). That's a 79% system. Take the UNDER!

5* Bucks/Bulls NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on UNDER

It looked like Game 1 was going to fly over the total of 186 after the Milwaukee and Chicago combined for 111 points in the 1st half. Instead they just barely finished over the mark at 194. The Bucks managed just 40 points in the 2nd half and the Bulls scored just 43.

I believe that's more of the type of offensive output that we can expect to see going forward. Chicago's defense has really came on strong down the stretch and the Bucks just don't have any real dynamic offensive players.

The Bulls have held the Bucks to just 85.3 ppg over the last 8 meetings and aren't going to take their foot off the gas. Chicago needs to finish this series quickly and make sure they are 100% going into their much anticipated round 2 showdown against the Cavs.

UNDER is 6-1 in the Bucks last 7 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 19-8 in their last 27 road games when revenging a road loss. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Bulls last 29 off a home by 10+ points and 11-2 in their last 13 after scoring 60+ in the first half of their previous game. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (56-20) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Blazers/Grizzlies NBA No Brainer on UNDER

Each of the last two meetings between these two teams resulted in low-scoring games. They combined for just 190 points at Portland on 2/22 and a mere 183 at Memphis on 3/21. Given the intensity of the playoffs and the fact that both of these two teams ranked inside the Top 10 in defensive efficiency for the season, I look for this one to stay well below the mark.

UNDER is 23-4 in Memphis' last 27 home games, 20-5-1 in their last 26 off a SU win and 7-1-1 in their last 9 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 5-1 in Blazers last 6 when playing with 3 or more days of rest and 25-8 in their last 33 road games when revenging 4 or more straight losses to an opponent. These trends combine to form a strong 81% (80-19) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Bucks/Bulls NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls -

The Bulls have once again overcame numerous injuries to win 50-games, but unlike previous years they are entering the playoffs healthy. I think Chicago is more than capable of winning the entire thing and certainly should have no problem getting past a slumping Bucks team.

Milwaukee has not been the same team since they traded away Brandon Knight and lost 3 of 4 during the season series to Chicago. Three of those wins for the Bulls came by 8 or more points and the lone loss was by just 4-points on the road and they were missing Rose. The Bucks are not a good road team and I just don't see them being able to keep this one close enough to cover.

Milwaukee went just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that had won more than 60% of their games. Chicago is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing with a full 2 days of rest. These trends add up to form a 79% (15-4) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Spurs -

The Pelicans need to win this game to make the playoffs, as a New Orleans loss and an Oklahoma City win over the lowly Timberwolves would leave the Pelicans out of the postseason. Unfortunately for New Orleans, this game means a lot to the Spurs as well.

With a win San Antonio can secure the No. 2 seed in the West, while a loss could push the Spurs as far back the No. 6 seed. Given the fact that San Antonio has won a season-best 11 straight games to get to this point, I don't see them not finishing off their run with a win here at New Orleans.

The Pelicans have won 7 of 10, but only won of those came against a playoff team and that was at home against Golden State, who didn't have much to play for, were in the midst of playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and fresh off a crushing 15-point loss at San Antonio. This team simply isn't as good as their recent run would suggest, which in turn has created some great value here on the Spurs.

Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who led in their previous game by 15+ points at the half against an opponent that has scored 100+ in 2 straight games are just 9-30 ATS since 1996. That's a 77% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Raptors -

Despite having Monday off, the Celtics clinched one of the final two playoff spots in the east, thanks to a Nets loss at home to the Bulls. Boston has been playing as well as anyone down the stretch and laying it all the line to get into the playoffs. Now that the goal has officially been accomplished, it's human nature for them to suffer a letdown.

Toronto is also locked into the playoffs and have secured homecourt advantage in the first round, but they are still battling with Chicago for the No. 3 spot, which is the difference between playing a dangerous Wizards team or a slumping Bucks team in the first round. That's not the only motivation here for the Raptors, as they will be out for revenge from a heartbreaking 116-117 home loss to the Celtics earlier this month (4/4). Toronto can also set a franchise record for wins in a season with a victory.

Adding to this is a strong system. Home teams off a game where they led by 20+ points at the half are just 74-111 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 60% long-term system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!

4* Bulls/Nets NBA Vegas Insider on Nets +

While the Bulls have won two straight and got a big time performance out of Derrick Rose in his 3rd game back from injury, Chicago has not performed well on the road of late. In fact, the Bulls are just 3-8 in their last 11 on the road haven't won consecutive away games since early February.

While the Bulls can afford a loss at this point, this is essentially a playoff game for the Nets. Brooklyn is tied for the 8th and final spot in the East with Indiana and 1-game back of 7th place Boston. They hold the tiebreaker over the Pacers, but a loss here would really cripple their chances. Nets have won 5 of their last 6 at home with the only loss coming to Atlanta by a final of 111-114.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Bulls. Teams revenging a home loss against an opponent that is coming off a road loss by 10 or more and the line is set at +3 to -3 are just 20-46 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Nets. Take Brooklyn!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pacers/Thunder UNDER

With both Oklahoma City and Indiana fighting for their playoff lives right now and both teams fresh off a days rest, I'm expecting both to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. The Pacers are currently 9th in the east, but are just 1-game back of both Boston and Brooklyn. The Thunder are in tie for 8th with the Pelicans, but technically 9th as they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Indiana allowed 103 in their last game against Detroit, but prior to that had held each of their previous 3 opponents under 90 points. While Oklahoma City's defense hasn't been great of late, the Pacers are only averaging 97.3 ppg on the season.

These two teams combined for just 197 in the previous meeting this season in Oklahoma City and the last time they played in Indiana the two combined for just 199. UNDER is 29-14 in the Thunders last 43 after allowing 100+ in 4 straight games and 35-19 in the Pacers last 54 after allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less in each of their last 5 games. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total Annihilator on Knicks/Magic UNDER

While the Knicks come in averaging just 91.8 ppg and the Magic are averaging just 96.0 ppg, these are also two bad defensive teams. New York allows 101.3 ppg (103.3 on the road) and Orlando gives up 101.7 ppg (102.8 at home).

The key thing here is that there's absolutely no reason for either of these teams to be excited about this game. Both are more interested in making plans for the offseason at this point and I'm expecting zero defense to be played, creating some nice value on the total.

OVER is 13-3-1 in the Knicks last 17 versus a team with a losing record and 10-1 in the Magic's last 11 against a team with a losing record. These two trends combine to form a strong 85% (23-4) system. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational Vegas Insider on Magic +

This might seem like an obvious spot to take the Raptors, given they are fighting for playoff position and first round home court advantage, while the Magic were out of the race a long time ago. I don't believe that's the case at all.

Orlando hasn't thrown in the towel at all and come in riding a 3-game winning streak, which includes a 105-103 home win over the Bulls as a 7-point dog in their last contest. While Toronto enters off a 92-74 blowout win at Charlotte, the Raptors are just 3-6 SU in their last 9 road games.

Toronto is also just 2-10 ATS this season off a road win by 10+ points, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after holding their previous opponent to 75 or less and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 following a game where they made 12 or more 3-pointers. They are also just 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 when playing on 1-day of rest. These trends combine to form a 76% (55-17) system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!

4* Bulls/Heat NBA on TNT Vegas Insider on Bulls +

The Bulls are showing some great value here as an underdog. While it might appear the Heat have more to play for, seeing they are 1-game out of the 8th and final playoff spot, Chicago is just 1-game in front of 5th place Washington and in danger of not having home court advantage in the first round.

It might also be perceived that the Bulls are at a disadvantage given their recent road woes and the fact that they are playing on no rest, but I'm not concerned. Butler was the only player to log more than 35 minutes last night. Not to mention the Bulls lost to the Magic 103-105, which is going to have them extra motivated to come out strong tonight.

What a lot of people are overlooking is the fact that Miami has not been playing well at all of late. The Heat were able to escape with a 105-100 win at home over Charlotte last time out, but are just 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10.

Chicago will also be playing with revenge from a 84-96 home loss as a 7.5-point favorite back on 1/25. Bulls are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 when revenging a loss of 10 or more and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 following a game they failed to cover. Miami 15-34-2 ATS in their last 51 after a SU win and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 versus the Central. These trends combine to form a strong 71% (84-34) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Bucks +

With Cleveland's 99-94 home win over the Bulls on Sunday, they are all but locked into the No. 2 spot in the east. The Cavaliers have a 4-game lead over the Bulls with 5 to play and also hold the tiebreaker over Chicago.

While Cleveland is in a position to coast through the rest of the regular season and start focusing on making sue their guys are healthy and fresh for what figures to be a long playoff run, the Bucks are still trying to secure a spot in the postseason. Milwaukee is just 3.5 ahead of 9th place Miami. While they figure to hold on to that lead, they are just 2 in front of 7th place Brooklyn and 3 ahead of 8th place Boston. Falling back to either of those spots, would mean a first round matchup against either the Hawks or Cavs.

As good as the Cavaliers have been at home, they are just 21-18 on the road and are only outscoring opponents by 2.4 ppg. Defense has been the main culprit for their road struggles, as they are giving up 101.0 ppg. Cleveland is also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 division games , while the Bucks are 9-4 in their last 13 against the Central. Take Milwaukee!

5* Southeast Division Game of the Month on Hornets/Heat UNDER

Miami is tied with Indiana at 34-43, which has them 1-game back of the Celtics for the 8th and final spot in the Easter Conference. Charlotte is right behind both of those teams at 33-43, just 1.5-games out of the playoffs. With just 5-games left on the schedule, both teams desperately need a win here.

I believe it's going to a lead to a low-scoring game, as both of these teams rely a lot on their defensive. The Heat are allowing just 97.2 ppg and Charlotte is giving up 97.0 ppg, while both teams average less than 95 ppg offensively. All 3 of the previous matchups this season have seen a combined score of 187 or less, including a mere 154 in the most recent matchup.

UNDER is 0-9 this season when Charlotte is playing with 2 days rest and 2-12 in the Heat's last 14 when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). These two trends combine to form a dynamite 91% (21-2) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Blazers/Nets NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER

This is a rescheduled game from Jan. 26 and as a result it's got both teams playing here with limited rest. Portland will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and while they had yesterday off, this is a long way to travel for just 1-game. Brooklyn will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, but it's also their 5th in the last 7 days.

I just don't see either team being all that efficient offensively, especially when you factor in the intensity that both teams figure to be playing with. Portland has at least the No. 4 seed locked up in the west, but that doesn't guarantee home court advantage in the first round, something this team desperately wants and needs. They are actually 1-game back of 5th place Los Angeles and 1/2-game back of 6th place San Antonio. Brooklyn on the other hand has just a 1/2 game lead over 8th place Boston and is just 2 in front of 11th place Charlotte.

UNDER is 13-5 in the Nets 18 games this season when playing against a team that's won between 60% to 70% of their games and 13-5 in their last 18 after allowing 100+ points in each of their last two games. UNDER is also 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (31-12) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Bulls/Cavs NBA Vegas Insider on Bulls +

The Cavaliers are getting way too much respect here as a near double-digit home favorite against a Bulls team that has won 6 of 8 and are still fighting to hold on to the No. 3 spot in the east. Cleveland has a comfortable 3-game lead over Chicago for the No. 2 spot with just 6 to play.

The Bulls might not have Rose, but have more than enough to win this game outright and at worse keep it close enough to cover. Chicago has really kicked it in gear defensively down the stretch and Bulls head coach tom Thibodeau has a history of being able to slow down James. I'm looking for both teams to bring the defensive intensity and a low scoring competitive game certainly favors Chicago as a 9-point dog.

Cavs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 division games, while the Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 following a contest where they failed to cover the spread. Take Chicago!

3* NBA Late Night ATS Bailout on Trail Blazers -

Portland has had their way with the Pelicans in their two meetings so far this season. They won 102-93 at home on Nov. 17 and 114-88 at New Orleans on Dec. 12. The Trail Blazers had lost 5 straight, but have since won 5 of their last and are still fighting for playoff position.

While the Pelicans have been playing well of late and are in a heated race for the 8th and final spot in the west, this is a horrible spot for New Orleans. They will be playing on no rest after last night's game at Sacramento and this will be their 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Portland also played last night, but didn't have to use up much energy in a 30-point rout of the Lakers.

Something else to keep in mind with New Orleans, is that their 4-game winning streak has come against the Kings (twice), Timberwolves and Lakers. The Pelicans are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take Portland!

5* NBA Undervalued Underdog Game of the Month on Nuggets +

While the Spurs are 8-1 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games, not once during this stretch have they been laying this many points. In fact, the last time San Antonio was this big of a favorite, was at New York, where they lost outright 100-104 as a 14-point favorite. As good as the Spurs are playing right now, this line has been drastically inflated.

Denver might be out of the playoff picture, but this is a game I believe you can be confident they will show up to play. The Nuggets have lost all 3 meetings so far this season, but have been able to keep it respectable, as all 3 losses have come by 10-points or less, including a 9-point loss in the most recent meeting in San Antonio.

San Antonio is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when they come in having played 5 consecutive games as a favorite, while the Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Adding to this is a strong system. Road underdogs of 10+ points that have lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 against an opponent that has won 8 or more of their last 10 are 87-50 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver!

4* NBA Total No Brainer on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER

Only once in the last 8 meetings between these two teams have they combined for more than 200 points. All 3 meetings this season have seen 194 or fewer points. In the lone meeting in Memphis, the two combined for a mere 159 points.

The big reason we are seeing such a high total here is due to the Thunder coming off a game against Dallas where the two teams combined for a staggering 266 points. I just don't see that kind of game here. Memphis is a dominant defensive team and rarely give up a big number on their home floor. At the same time, the Grizzlies are not a good offensive team and like to play at a slow pace.

Couple extra factors here that I believe favor a low-scoring game. Memphis has fallen a .5-game back of the Rockets for the No. 2 spot in the west. Getting out of No. 3 and back into No. 2 is crucial, as the No. 3 seed will likely have to open with either the Spurs or Clippers in the first round. Oklahoma City became the first team since 1995 to have 3 players score 30+ points in a losing effort in that loss to Dallas and have their defensive to blame. I'm expecting max effort on that side of the ball. Thunder are also just 1.5-games ahead of surging New Orleans for the 8th and final playoff spot.

UNDER is 14-1 in Memphis' last 15 games after covering as a double-digit favorite, 20-6 in their last 26 home games and 13-3 in their last 16 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. UNDER is also 6-1 in Thunder's last 7 after allowing 125+ and 17-7 in their last 24 after making 12 or more 3-point shots. These trends combine to form a 80% (70-18) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Raptors/Nets OVER

The Nets are playing some of their best basketball of the season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Brooklyn has scored 100+ in 4 straight games and are averaging 107.3 ppg over their last 8. Toronto has been an offensive juggernaut all season, as the Raptors rank 4th in the league at 104.2 ppg. Of importance here is that their offense has been even better on the road, where they are averaging 105.9 ppg.

While the Nets have found their mojo offensively, they are still struggling to get it done on the defensive side of the ball. Brooklyn comes in allowing 100.6 ppg on the season and are giving 108.0 ppg over their last 5 at home. Toronto on the other hand has really struggled defensively on the road. The Raptors are allowing 104.3 ppg away from home and allowing teams to shoot 47% from the field. The fewest points Toronto has allowed on the road in their last 12 is 98.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. The OVER is 24-3 since 1996 in games where you have a total set at 200 or more points, where the home team has won 8 or more of their last 10 games, yet are only winning between 40% to 49% of their games on the season. That's a 89% system. Take the OVER!

5* Heat/Cavs TNT Total of the Month on UNDER

The Cavaliers sit comfortably in 2nd in the east, 8 games back of Atlanta and 3 ahead of the Raptors and Bulls with just 7 games to play, but I don't see them taking their foot off the gas until they have secured the No. 2 spot. This also isn't just another opponent for Cleveland, as LeBron James will be going up against his former team in Miami, who the Cavaliers have lost twice to by double-digits, including the most recent meeting 92-106 in Miami on 3/16.

Anytime you play the Cavaliers it means something more, but the Heat are also in playoff mode. Miami holds the 7th spot in the east, thanks to a tie-breaker over Brooklyn, but are just a 1/2 game ahead of 9th place Boston and 2 in front of 10th place Charlotte. Needless to say this game means a lot to the Heat.

With the importance of this matchup for both teams, combined with the fact that we have two strong defensive teams playing in a nationally televised game on TNT, I'm expecting this one to go under the total set of 199. Miami is giving up just 95.6 ppg and the Cavs are allowing only 95.8 ppg.

UNDER is 10-2 in the Heat's last 12 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 21-6 in their last 27 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 8-3 in their last 11 following a double-digit loss at home. UNDER is also 5-1 in Cavs' last 6 home games, 23-10 in their last 33 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 11-3-1 in their last 15 versus a team with a losing record. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (78-25) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Pelicans -

New Orleans currently sits in 9th place in the Western Conference, just 2.5-games out of the 8th and final playoff spot. Losing to a team like the Lakers, home or away, is simply not an option for the Pelicans at this point in the season.

Los Angeles is coming off a win at Philadelphia in their last game, but haven't won back-to-back games since February and this is not a great spot for the Lakers. Getting motivated this late in the season can be extremely hard for a bad team like LA and even more so when they are coming off a lengthy 5-game road trip with their last two coming completely on the other side of the country.

The other big key here is that New Orleans has had their way with the Lakers this season, winning all three matchups, including each of the last two by 16+ points. Their dominance over LA has a lot to do with the Lakers not having anyone who can matchup against Anthony Davis, who is averaging 25.7 points on 69% shooting, 8.7 rebounds and 4 blocks in the 3 games during the season series.

Lakers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 after playing 2 straight road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4  home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, while the Pelicans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games with a total set at 195 to 199.5 and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6. These trends combine to form a 80% (39-10) system in favor of the Pelicans. Take New Orleans!

4* Clippers/Blazers NBA Heavy Hitter on Blazers -

This is a great spot and price to back the Trail Blazers at home against the Clippers. Portland has won 4 straight and are 7-1 over their last 8 home games with the only loss coming against the league's best team in Golden State.

Speaking of the Warriors, Los Angeles just played a huge home game against Golden State last night that they desperately wanted to win. The Clippers ended up losing the contest and in the process they had all 5 starters play at least 39 minutes. It's going to be extremely difficult for them to come back with the kind of energy needed to compete with the Blazers on the road.

Clippers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after their starters combined for more than 160 minutes the previous day, 8-17 ATS in their last 25 after a game with a combined score of 205 or more and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Portland is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following a SU win and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4. These trends combine to form a strong 73% (47-17) system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Magic +

As difficult as it may be to back Orlando given the recent performance of these two teams, I think the Magic are showing some great value here as a 9.5-point home dog. The Spurs are clearly trying to make a push for one of the top seeds in the Western Conference, but they also aren't going to push their veterans to the max and have nothing left for the playoffs. With San Antonio playing on no rest, don't be surprised to see some of their key players not play or have a strict minutes restriction.

This will also be the Spurs 3rd game in 4 days and 6th in the last 9 days, which I believe increases the likelihood that some players get some rest. Orlando on the other hand is coming into this game having not played since last Friday. I look for this team to come out extremely motivated against the defending champs on their home floor and keep in mind they only lost by 7 at San Antonio earlier this season.

There's a solid system in play here as well. Home underdogs who failed to cover the spread in their last game and are playing their 3rd or less game in the last 10 days are 84-47 ATS since 1996. That's a 64% System in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!

5* GS/LAC Western Conference Game of the Month on Clippers -

While Golden State has won 9 straight and 14 of 15 overall, this is a great spot to go against the Warriors, as they clinched the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference with their last win at Milwaukee. The focus now for Golden State will be getting ready for the playoffs, and that will like result in key players getting some time off.

The Clippers have won 7 straight, but they are still in a battle for playoff seeding, including home court in the first round. This game simply means a lot more to Los Angeles and I expect them to deliver at home.

Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 in a game involving two teams that allow 98-102 ppg after a combined score of 205+ in each of their last two games are 42-16 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!

3* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Suns +

This may seem like a great spot to go against the Suns, who have lost 3 straight, will possibly be without point guard Brandon Knight (questionable), playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and recently fell at home to the Blazers 81-87 (3/27), but I think these factors have forced the books to overvalue Portland in this spot.

The Blazers have won 3 straight, but all 3 of those wins have come by 6-points or less. Prior to that they had dropped 5 straight and they too are playing on little rest. While Portland was off yesterday, they had just played 4 games in 5 days prior to their break. Another factor here is that the Blazers have a huge road game at the Clippers on deck Wednesday that will be televised nationally on NBATV.

Phoenix is 24-12 ATS in their last 36 games when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when listed as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points. They are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games after 2 or more consecutive losses and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 when playing on 0 days rest. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (54-19) system in favor of the Suns. Take Phoenix!

4* Rockets/Raptors NBA Vegas Insider on Raptors -

The Raptors are showing some tremendous value here as a mere 2-point home favorite against the Rockets. Toronto is an impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against Houston and are catching the Rockets in a great spot. Houston just played at Washington yesterday, making the trip to Toronto that much more difficult on no rest.

You also have to factor in that Houston is playing short-handed right now. While Howard has recently returned, he's going to get the night off. Beverley has been lost for the season and Motiejunas and Jones are both out with injuries. It's also worth noting that Rockets are just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 road games after 2 or more wins.

Adding to all of this is a big time system backing the Raptors. Favorites that are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field on the season after holding their previous opponent to 35% or less are 25-3 ATS since 1996. That's a 89% system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!

5* NBA Total of the Month on 76ers/Lakers OVER

I'm not expecting a whole lot of defense to be played in tonight's matchup between two of the worst teams in the league. These two teams did combine for just 188 points on 3/22, but that was with the 76ers shooting a mere 36.0% from the field.

It was the Lakers best defensive effort since December of 2013, which has me confident that it's not going to repeat itself, especially considering LA will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set and their 5th straight on the road overall.

OVER is 6-1 in the Lakers last 7 games after their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 22-11 in their last 33 when they come in having lost 12 or more of their last 15. OVER is also 42-27 in the 76ers last 69 home games after going under the total in their last game and 7-3 in their last 10 against an opponent that allowed 100+ in their last game. These trends combine to form a strong 65% (77-42) system. Take the OVER!

5* Non-Conference Total of the Month on Clippers/Celtics UNDER

The books have set the mark too high for Sunday's showdown between the Clippers and Celtics. Boston has held each of their last 3 opponents to 93 points or less, while LA has held each of their last 4 under the century mark. These two teams combined for just 195 points in their previous meeting this season and I'm expecting a similar combined score in the rematch.

Another big key here to this one going under the mark is that both of these teams are fighting for playoff spots. The Clippers are a 1/2 game back of the Blazers for the No.4  spot and home court in the first round, while Boston is just a 1/2 game ahead of Brooklyn and 1 in front of both Indiana and Charlotte for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 55-23 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 200 to 209.5 where the home team is revenging a loss against an opponent that is coming in off a road win by 10+ points. That's a 71% system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Early Bird Total Dominator on Rockets/Wizards UNDER

These early start times that come with the Sunday slate have a strong tendency to go under the total and I think we are getting plenty of value here. Both of these teams are fighting for home court in the playoffs, which is going to add to the defensive intensity. Washington is only allowing 96.5 ppg at home and are scoring just 94.4 ppg over their last 5.

These two teams combined for 207 points in the previous meeting this season and that was with both teams shooting over 46% from the field. I look for both teams to have a much harder time from the field in the rematch.

UNDER is 30-19 in the Rockets last 49 when the total is set at 200 or more points, 15-5 in the Wizards last 20 after a win by 3 points or less and 14-4 in Washington's last 18 after a combined score of 205+ in their last game. These trends combine to form a 68% (59-28) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Thunder -

Oklahoma City will be all business when they take the floor against the Jazz on Saturday, as they were embarrassed last time out in a 39-point loss at San Antonio. Utah had been playing well, but have dropped 4-straight. The Jazz also just played last night in the thin air of Denver and this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 overall. Thunder on the other hand come in off a full 2-days of rest, which is big part of why I'm taking OKC and laying the points on the road.

Thunder are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 110+ points in each of their last 2 games, while the Jazz are just 16-28 ATS in their last 44 home games against up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots/game.

Adding to all this is a strong system backing a fade of Utah. Home teams that have gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last 3 games combined are just 53-95 ATS in games played on Saturday over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

4* Hornets/Wizards NBA Heavy Hitter on Wizards -

Washington failed to cover in their first game back home from a 4-game west coast road trip, falling 101-103 to the Pacers as a 3-point favorite. It was the Wizards 4th straight loss overall and I believe it has them showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the struggling Hornets. Charlotte has dropped 2 straight and 7 of their last 9 overall, which started with an ugly 26-point loss to the Wizards.

Washington could be without Beal for this one, but I don't think it's going to matter. The Wizards are 25-11 at home and will certainly be motivated given their recent results. Charlotte on the other hand is in a tough spot. They returned home following a 5-game road trip and are now back on the road before returning home tomorrow to face Atlanta.

Home favorites off 2 or more consecutive losses are 96-65 ATS on Friday over the last 5 seasons. We also see a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Hornets, as team revenging a home loss of 10 or more off a close home loss by 3 or less are just 43-86 ATS since 1996. That's a 67% long-term system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cavs/Grizzlies UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in what I feel is going to be an offensive struggle for both teams. The Grizzlies are back to playing their brand of basketball and have been putting on a defensive clinic at home of late, allowing a mere 84.7 ppg over their last 10 home games.

Adding to that is the fact that not once during this stretch did Memphis eclipse the 100-point mark offensively. Cleveland held the Grizzlies to just 91 points in the previous meeting this season and are much better defensive team now than they were in December.

UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 after scoring 100+ points in their last game, 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record and 8-0 in their last 8 after a cover as a double digit favorite in their last game. These trends combine to form a perfect 100% (17-0) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Knicks +

The public wants absolutely nothing to do with the Knicks and everything to do with going against them. That's especially going to be the case here with New York having lost 4 straight and fresh off a 21-point home loss to Memphis, while the Clippers enter having won 4 straight. Regardless of how big a disparity there is between these two teams, this is a lot of points for a road team to be laying, especially given the fact that this is LA's first game on 3-game east coast swing after having not left the state of California in nearly two weeks.

The Clippers are just 57-86 (40%) ATS in their last 143 road games when they come in having won 2 or more consecutive games, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus the Eastern Conference and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Underdogs of 10+ points who are revenging a loss where they scored 85 or fewer points against an opponent off a home win as a favorite where they failed to cover the spread are 48-19 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Knicks. Take New York!

5* NBA Game of the Month on Wizards -

Both of these teams come into this game in the midst of a minor slump. The Pacers have dropped 6 straight, while the Wizards come in having lost 3 in a row. The key thing to note hear is that Washington's poor play came on west coast trip which included two games against two of the elite teams in the Clippers and Warriors sandwiched around a game against the Kings. Indiana's poor play has come with them playing 4 of their last 5 at home and they are just 12-22 on the road.

Washington is a completely different team at home than on the road. The Wizards are 25-10 SU at home, where they have won 5 straight, including recent wins over both the the Grizzlies and Trail Blazers. Offensively the Wizards shoot the ball at a much better clip at home and also get after it more defensively. Indiana is getting to much respect from their recent run and I feel like this is a great spot to take advantage of a short line with a better team at home.

Indiana is a mere 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games played in March, 16-28 ATS in their last 44 when playing 6 or more in a span of 10 days and 6-21 ATS in their last 27 when they come in having failed to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Take Washington!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Bucks UNDER

I'm expecting both of these teams to come out with a lot of energy here defensively. The Bucks are only giving up just 96.6 ppg at home and will be motivated here to snap a 6-game losing streak that has them 3.5-games ahead of 9th place Charlotte. Miami is only 2-games in front of the Hornets so they too will be motivated to get a win. The Heat will also be playing with triple-revenge, as they have lost all 3 previous meetings against Milwaukee this season.

One of the keys here is that the Heat are averaging just 92.6 ppg on the road and managed just 75 points in their last game at Oklahoma City. Milwaukee has scored 90 or fewer in 3 of their last 5 overall and Miami is only giving up 96.6 ppg on the road.

UNDER is 11-3 in the Heat's last 14 road games off a loss by 10+ points and 10-1 this season when playing against a marginal losing team that's won between 40% to 49% of their games. UNDER is also 7-2 in the Bucks last 9 after allowing 100+ points in their last game and 13-3 in their last 16 after 2 straight games with 10 or more steals. These trends combine to form a strong 82% (41-9) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Non-Conference Vegas Insider on Knicks +13

With the Grizzlies coming into this game off back-to-back double-digit wins over the Mavericks and Trail Blazers and the Knicks off a couple of ugly losses on the road to the 76ers (81-97) and Raptors (89-106), this may seem like a decent price to back Memphis against New York. I don't think that's the case at all.

The Grizzlies are 7.5-games out of 1st in the west and know that the top spot is out of question. They are also a comfortable 2.5-games ahead of 3rd seed Houston with just 12 games left to play. I believe the focus here for Memphis is to get a win and not use up to much energy before Wednesday's huge home game against the Cavaliers. Not to mention they host the Warriors on Friday and turnaround and travel to San Antonio on Sunday. This is the definition of a trap game.

Adding to this is the fact that Memphis is just 14-34 ATS in their last 48 games when listed as a favorite of 10 or more points and just 13-26 ATS in their last 39 with a total set at 180 to 189.5 points. On top of that the Knicks are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 off back-to-back double-digit road defeats. Take New York +13!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Heat/Thunder UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for this one. The Thunder have scored 100+ points in 22-straight games, but will be going up against a tough Miami defense without several key pieces of their offense. Durant, Ibaka, Collison are all out with injuries and Kanter is questionable to play with an ankle injury. Miami on the other hand continues to play without Chris Bosh. Another big factor here is the early start time on Sunday, which has historically led to lower-scoring games. These two teams also combined for just 180 points in the first meeting back on Jan. 20.

UNDER is 11-3 in the Heat's last 14 non-conference road games and 10-2 in their last 12 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 19-10 in Thunder's last 29 when playing against a team with a losing record and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 home games after finishing over the total in each of their last 4 games. These trends combine to form a 76% (48-15) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Late Night ATS Bailout on Wizards +

Washington has won 5 straight and are back to playing up to their potential. The Clippers have won two straight, but I haven't really been impressed with of late. They are just 4-4 over their last 8 games with the 4 wins coming against the Timberwolves, Thunder, Hornets and Kings. I don't know that the Wizards will have enough here to win this game outright, but I look for them to have no problem keeping this withing 7-points for the cover.

The Clippers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against the Eastern Conference, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played on Friday and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Adding to this is a strong system telling us to fade Los Angeles, as home favorites off a win by 10+ points over a division rival are just 14-35 ATS on Friday over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

3* Hawks/Warriors Late Night Total Annihilator on UNDER

These two teams combined for 240 points in Atlanta in their previous meeting this season, but there's not near the hype the second time around and both teams will be playing without two of their most important plays.

Golden State won't have Klay Thompson and the Hawks will be without Kyle Korver. These are two of the best shooters in the game, that really make it difficult on opposing defenses with how much attention they have to pay to them. Not having them on the floor is going to make life much easier for both defenses, which I believe will have this one finishing well below the mark. You also have to factor in that both teams have a better understanding of what the other likes to do offensively after already facing each other.

UNDER is 6-2 in the Hawks last 8 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 5-2 in the Warriors last 7 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 at home against a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER!

4* Bulls/Pacers NBA Heavy Hitter on Bulls -

The Bulls have been treading water without Rose, Butler and Gibson, as they have lost 5 of their last 6. I believe it has Chicago showing some big time value here as a small home favorite against the Pacers. Indiana isn't exactly playing their best basketball. In their last two games they have lost 89-93 at home to the Celtics and 98-117 at home to the Raptors.

The Bulls are clearly playing short-handed right now, which is why I think this is a good spot to back them coming off a full 2 days of rest. You also have to keep in mind that the Bulls have played 5 of their last 6 on the road during their 1-5 stretch and the Pacers are just 12-20 on the road.

Indiana is 4-15 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing 5 straight games as a favorite and are just 6-20 ATS in the month of March over the last two seasons. Chicago lost 84-98 at Indiana back on 3/6, which is important to note as the Bulls are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 75% (58-19) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavs -

This may seem like a big number to back the Cavs at home against the Nets off back-to-back wins, but Cleveland is on a mission to secure that No. 2 seed and will be extra motivated after getting embarrassed at Miami 92-106 in their last game. Brooklyn's two game winning streak is far from impressive, as they knocked off the 76ers and Timberwolves. Prior to that the Nets had dropped 5 straight and 10 of their last 14 overall.

Cleveland has won 13 straight at home and during this stretch are outscoring opponents by 15.7 ppg, which is why I'm not to concerned laying the big number here. It's also worth noting that the Cavaliers will be at full strength, as Kevin Love is expected to return after sitting out the last two.

Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win by 10 or more points, while Cleveland is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

Adding to this is a strong system. Home favorites of 10+ points who have went over the total by 30+ points in their last 5 games, who have won 60% to 75% of their games and are playing a team with a losing record are 41-16 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a strong 72% system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland!

4* Magic/Rockets NBA Heavy Hitter on Magic +

This is a great spot to back Orlando as a double-digit road dog against the Rockets. The Magic will be motivated to snap a 4-game losing streak and are showing some solid value here due to their lopsided 15-point loss at home to the Cavaliers.

The big key here is Houston is in a prime letdown spot, as they pulled out a big 100-98 win on the road over the Clippers, which concluded a difficult 4-game stretch on the road. I just don't see the Rockets coming out highly motivated here, which will make it hard for them to cover a massive spread like this.

Orlando has thrived on the road this season. The Magic are an impressive 14-6 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games when playing against a team with a winning record. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100+ points in their last game and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the Western Conference. These trends combine to form a strong 80% (39-10) system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Kings +

The Kings are showing some great value here as a 5-point home underdog against the Hawks. Atlanta comes in off a 91-86 road win over the Lakers yesterday and are expected to rest Horford, while Korver and Scott both sit with injuries. We have seen the Hawks lose recently at Philadelphia 84-92 and at Denver 102-115. With a 10-game lead over the Cavs, Atlanta can afford to not put their best foot forward in these tough scheduling spots.

Another key here is that Sacramento will be returning home from a lengthy 8-game road trip, which saw them go just 2-6 SU and 2-6 ATS. The important thing here to note is that the Kings are an impressive 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Atlanta on the other hand is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 following a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games overall. These trends combine to form a strong 82% (23-5) system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Pacers -

These two teams are headed in completely different directions down the stretch run and I think we are seeing some solid value here due to the difference in records. Toronto is 39-27, while Indiana is 30-35. However, the Raptors are a mere 2-10 over their last 12, while the Pacers 10-2 over their last 12.

Not only is Indiana playing the better basketball of the two, they have a big advantage here in terms of scheduling. The Pacers come in off a days rest, while the Raptors will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in their last 4 days overall.

Another big key here is that Indiana won't be overlooking Toronto, as they have lost each of the previous two meetings this season. Home teams playing with double revenge against an opponent that's off a upset home loss by 15+ points as a favorite are 61-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 69% system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Wizards -

After an ugly stretch that saw them lose 6-straight, Washington has returned to form with three straight blowout wins over the Hornets (95-69), Grizzlies (107-87) and Kings (113-97) and I look for them to carry over that momentum with a win at home against the Trail Blazers.

Portland has won 3 straight and 8 of 9 overall, but find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot. The Trail Blazers not only will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. Adding to this is the fact that the Trail Blazers are just a 16-14 team on the road, compared to 28-6 at home.

Washington will also be playing with revenge here, as they lost 96-103 at Portland back on Jan. 24. The Wizards are an impressive 30-18 ATS in their last 48 when revenging a loss to an opponent where they allowed 100+ points. Washington is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win by more than 10 points, while the Blazers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games with a total set at 195 to 199.5 points. These trends combine to form a strong 68% (43-20) system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Magic/Cavs UNDER 201.5

The books have set the mark too high for this one, which isn't a big surprise given that the Cavaliers come in off a game against the Spurs where the two teams combined for 253 points. Prior to that Cleveland had held Dallas to 94 points and the Suns to just 79 in their last two games. Orlando isn't a great defensive team, but have been playing much better on that side of the ball since making a coaching change. The Magic have held 12 of their 15 opponents under the century mark. It's also worth noting that each of the two previous meetings this season have seen 187 and 180 points. 

UNDER is 14-5 in the Cavaliers last 19 after allowing 105+ points in their last game, 8-1 in their last 9 off a win by 6 points or less and 13-4 in their last 17 games played on Sunday.  These trends combine to form a strong 78% (35-10) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Nets/76ers OVER

I'm expecting these two teams to fly over the total tonight. Brooklyn has allowed 100+ in three straight and 5 of their last 6. The only exception being a home game against a Utah team that is playing extremely well on the defensive end. The 76ers were able to snap out of their recent shooting funk with 114 points on 47% shooting in a home win over the Kings last time out and I look for that to carry over to this one. The other big key here is that the 76ers are not a strong defensive team and will gladly let this game turn into a shootout. 

OVER is 22-9 in the 76ers last 31 home games after playing two straight as a home dog, 5-0 in their last 5 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 13-4 in their last 17 home games versus teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls per game. OVER is also 4-1 in the Nets last 5 when facing an opponent who allowed 100 or more points in their last game. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (44-14) system. Take the OVER!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Raptors -

Toronto has lost 9 of their last 10, but a lot of that has had to do with it being a brutal stretch for the Raptors. During this stretch Toronto has played just two home games and they came against two of the best teams in the league in Golden State and Cleveland. Retuning home against a below average Miami team is the perfect spot for the Raptors to bounce back.

Miami has gone a respectable 8-6 over their last 14 games, but it's not as impressive as you might think. Those 8 wins have come against the likes of the Knicks (twice) 76ers, Magic, Suns, Lakers, Kings, and Nets.

The Heat won and covered last time out, but are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 after covering the number in their last game and just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 after having won 2 of their last 3. Miami is also a mere 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a strong 75% (41-14) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!

4* Rockets/Jazz NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Rockets -

The Jazz have put together a nice run of late, winning three straight and 8 of their last 10 overall, but I look for them to struggle to keep up with a motivated Rockets that will be looking to bounce back from last night's 100-105 loss at Portland.

The big key here is that Houston has owned the Jazz of late, winning each of the last 3 meetings by double-digits, including a 15-point home win in the most recent meeting on Jan. 10. The Rockets are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games off a SU loss and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 against a team with a losing record. Utah on the other hand is 10-24 ATS in their last 34 after 2 or more straight wins and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 after going under the total in 6 or more consecutive games. These trends add up to form a strong 76% (64-20) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!

4* NBA Eastern Conference No Brainer on Bulls -

The perception on Chicago is not good right now, as the Bulls have dropped 3 straight and continue to play without 3 of their best players in Rose, Butler and Gibson. While they aren't a serious contender without those 3 healthy, I believe we are seeing a big overreaction here. Chicago's 3 losses have come on the road against the Pacers and Spurs and at home against the Grizzlies. Indiana and San Antonio are two of the hottest teams right now and Memphis has the 3rd best record overall.

If anything this is a prime spot for the Bulls to bounce back against a horrible 76ers team that is getting a little too much respect for their 92-84 win at home against the Hawks last time out. Atlanta rested both Millsap and Carroll, plus were in a huge letdown spot after that big win over the Cavaliers the night before. Prior to that win Philadelphia had dropped 9 of 10 and I fully expect them to go back to their losing ways tonight.

Chicago is 19-8 ATS in their last 27 road games when they come in having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, while the 76ers are just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games after losing 3 of their last 4 and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when playing on 3 or more days rest.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against a poor 3PT shooting team (33% or worse), good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 69-34 ATS since 1996. That's a 67% system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!

4* Raptors/Spurs NBA Vegas Insider on Raptors +

Toronto is showing some great value here as a 7.5-point road dog against the Spurs. The Raptors are simply being undervalued right now due to the fact that they have gone just 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games. San Antonio on the other hand has won 5 straight and are 4-1 ATS during this stretch. However, the Spurs have played a favorable schedule during this stretch and that has them slightly overvalued.

Toronto showed some positive signs in their last game, losing by a final of just 104-108 at Oklahoma City as a 7-point underdog and I'm looking for a similar type outcome in this one. Keep in mind that the Raptors won 87-82 at San Antonio back on Feb. 8. It's also worth noting that this is a bit of a look ahead spot for the Spurs, who will host LeBron James and company Thursday night in the TNT nightcap.

San Antonio is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 in the 2nd half against team who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game. Toronto on the other hand is a perfect 8-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons after a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog. These trends combine to form a strong 83% (25-5) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!

5* Wizards/Hornets Southeast Game of the Month on Wizards +

This line is begging for you to take the Hornets as a small home favorite. Charlotte is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games, while the Wizards are a mere 2-7 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9. Not to mention the Hornets have won both of the previous two meetings this season.

Charlotte is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100+ points in their last game and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. I look for the Hornets to struggle to match the Wizards intensity after having to use a lot of energy to rally late to beat the Pistons yesterday in a high-scoring affair.

We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of Washington. Favorites that are shooting 33% or worse from behind the 3-point line are 34-70 ATS in the month of March over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Hornets/Pistons UNDER

These two teams combined for just 184 points in their only other meeting this season and I'm expecting a similar low-scoring affair in this one. Charlotte has scored 100+ in 3 straight games and are simply not built to sustain that kind of offensive success, but in the short term it has created some great value here. The Hornets are only averaging 95.0 ppg and are a team built on their effort defensively.

Charlotte has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 94 points or less, while the Pistons have scored 95 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. While Detroit hasn't been playing great defensively of late, they hold New Orleans to just 88 points two games ago and figure to be highly motivated to snap a 5-game losing streak.

UNDER is 14-4 in the Hornets last 18 after scoring 100+ in 2 or more consecutive games, 7-2 in their last 9 road games and 8-1 in their last 9 when coming in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7. UNDER is also 12-3 in the Pistons last 15 games after allowing 100+, 6-1 in their last 7 following a SU loss and 4-0 in their last 4 at home after a road trip of 7 or more days. These trends combine to form a 82% (51-11) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Bulls/Spurs NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

Great situation here to back the under, as we have a nationally televised game with an early start time between two fundamentally sound defensive teams. With the injuries the Bulls are dealing with, their only hope of staying competitive is to give max effort defensively. While the Spurs are averaging 110 over their last 4, it's come against some bad defensive teams in the Kings (twice), Suns and Nuggets.

The Bulls have held the Spurs to fewer than 90 points twice in the last 3 meetings and it would come as a surprise if Chicago was able to top 90 points given their current form. San Antonio is only allowing 95.4 ppg over their last 5.

UNDER is 20-9 in the Bulls 29 road games this season and 12-3 when listed as a road dog. UNDER is also 14-6 in the Spurs last 20 non-conference games, 23-8 in their last 31 home games after scoring 120 or more in their last contest, 7-2 in their last 9 on Sunday and 12-3 in their last 15 following an ATS loss. These trends combine to form a 74% (88-31) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on 76ers +

This is the perfect spot to go against the Hawks, as they are primed for a letdown after last night's huge home win over the Cavaliers. The books are begging for you take Atlanta at the line and the public is taking the bait. I just don't see the Hawks being all that interested here, as they have the Eastern Conference locked up.

You also have to take into consideration that the Hawks may rest some key players here in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, which head coach Mike Budenholzer has done recently. Either way I look for the 76ers to keep this one surprisingly close. Philadelphia is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games when revenging a road loss to an opponent. These two trends combine to form a strong 77% (24-7) system in favor of the 76ers. Take Philadelphia!

5* Cavs/Hawks NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Year on Cavs -

This game means a lot more to the Cavaliers than it does the Hawks. Atlanta has a comfortable 10-game lead in the east and are all but a shoe-in to take home the No. 1 seed. Cleveland on the other hand is fighting for position and will be out for double-revenge after losing each of the last two meetings.

The key here is that this is a different Cavaliers team than the one the Hawks beat up on earlier in the season. Cleveland has gone 20-4 over their last 24 games and three of those losses came in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. The Cavs come in with a full day of rest and I look for them to come out an make a statement.

The Hawks won 104-96 as a 8.5-point home favorite against the Rockets on Wednesday, which sets them up in a good spot to fade. Atlanta is just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 when playing with 2 days of rest and 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games off a win where they failed to cover the spread. Adding to this is the fact that Cleveland is a dominant 10-2 ATS in their 12 games in the 2nd half against opponents who are scoring 99+ points/game and winning these contests by an average of 11.4 ppg. These trends add up to form a strong 78% (42-12) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Bulls/Pacers UNDER

Both of these teams come into this contest off a strong offensive performance. The Bulls scored 108 last night against the Thunder, while the Pacers put up 105 against the Knicks. That's going to have to public looking to back the over with this low total, but the real value here is with the under.

These two division rivals have a history of playing low-scoring games. Each of the last 4 meetings have seen a combined score of 189 or less. With the Bulls playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and without the services of Rose, Butler or Gibson, it's highly unlikely Chicago will flirt with 100 points in back-to-back nights. The important thing here is the Bulls will bring the intensity defensively and Indiana is far from a strong offensive team and are averaging just 90.2 ppg in their last 5 against Chicago.

UNDER is 15-4 in the Bulls last 19 road games after two or more consecutive wins, 8-1 in their last 9 road games after winning at least 4 of their last 7 and 11-3 on the season when listed as a road underdog. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Pacers last 29 off 3 or more consecutive wins and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 home games after winning 3 of their previous 4. These trends combine to form a 78% (62-17) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Thunder/Bulls TNT Total Annihilator on UNDER

The Thunder are averaging 112.2 ppg over their last 5 and seen each of their last 4 finish over the total. Their recent offensive surge along with this being a nationally televised game on TNT, has the total inflated. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Chicago and 5-1 in the last 6 overall.

Chicago is without three of their better offensive players in Rose, Butler and Gibson and have no choice but to turn their focus to the defensive end of the floor to remain competitive. The Bulls are only averaging 90.4 ppg and allowing 89.2 ppg over their last 5. Big key here is the Thunder won't be looking to push the tempo after playing a grueling overtime game at Philadelphia last night. Adding to that is the fact that this will be Oklahoma City's 3rd game in 4 days and 5th in the last 8 days overall. Plus, Chicago comes in off 2-days rest, so we can expect max energy defensively here.

UNDER is 31-14 in the Bulls last 45 off a home win, 14-4 in their 18 after playing two straight games as an underdog, 7-1 in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in their last 7 against the Western Conference. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Thunder's last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 15-4 in their last 19 after a combined score of 205+ in 4 or more straight games. These trends combine to form a 75% (77-25) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Timberwolves -

The Nuggets snapped a 6-game losing streak in their first game after firing head coach Brian Shaw, but I'm not expecting that to carry over on the road. Denver is a mere 8-21 on the road and find themselves playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall.

I just don't see them having the energy to keep pace with the Timberwolves, who have looked like a completely different team of late. While Minnesota has lost 3 straight and are just 2-4 since the All-Star break, two of those losses came on the road to the Rockets and Bulls and the other two at home against the Clippers and Grizzlies by a combined 9-points. Kevin Garnett is changing the mentality of this team and brought some excitement back to Minnesota.

Denver is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days rest, while the Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing on a full days rest and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the Western Conference. These trends combine to form a 88% (29-4) system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Nets -

This is a great spot to back the Nets as a relatively small home favorite against the Hornets. Charlotte has won two straight and 3 of their last 4, but are just 3-6 in their last 9 overall.

Most importantly their three wins have been less than impressive. They went on the road and beat the Bulls in Chicago's first game after finding out they had lost Rose to another knee injury and the other two came against bottom feeders in the Magic and Lakers. On top of that 5 of their 6 losses during this stretch have come by 7 or more points.

Brooklyn on the other hand is in the midst of one of their best stretches of the season. The Nets have won 4 of 6, including a 104-94 road win at Dallas and 110-108 home win over the Warriors in their last 2 games. They haven't lost at home since late January and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 overall.

Charlotte is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing 100+ points in their previous game and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent who scored 100+ points in their last contest. Hornets are also just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after a combined score of 205+ in their last game, while Brooklyn is a dominant 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games in the month of March. These trends combine to form a 89% (32-4) system in favor of the Nets. Take Brooklyn!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Rockets/Hawks UNDER

These two teams combined for just 203 points in the Hawks 104-97 win at Houston in their previous meeting this season. That contest had a total of just 197 points and now we find the total sitting even higher with the Rockets playing without potential MVP James Harden, who had 18 points and 14 assists in that earlier defeat.

This will be Houston's first game this season without Harden and not having him on the floor is going to have their offense struggling to get going. It also wouldn't come as a big surprise with Harden suspended for just 1-game if the rest of the Rockets players didn't take this game all that seriously.

A lot is made of the Hawks efficiency offensively, which covers up the fact that this is a very good defensive team that is only allowing 95.1 ppg at home. It's also worth noting that Atlanta has scored 100+ just once in their last 6 games and have not had a game finish with a combined score of 200 or more since Feb. 9.

UNDER is 24-15 in the Rockets last 39 games with a total set at 200 or more points and 39-19 in their last 58 road games when they come in having scored 100+ in 4 straight games. UNDER is also 15-4 in Houston's last 19 in the 2nd half against teams who are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game and 20-8 in the Hawks last 28 home games in the 2nd half against teams with a winning record.

Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 70-28 since 1996 in games where you have a team off a road win against a division rival (Hawks) against an opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less (Rockets). That's a 71% system in play tonight. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Hornets -

I'm backing the Hornets at home against the Lakers, who are poised for a letdown on the road after playing 4 of their previous 5 at home. Los Angeles had their 3-game winning streak snapped in a 101-108 home loss to the Thunder, who were playing without Durant and Westbrook.

The Hornets come in off an impressive 15-point win at Orlando (98-83) and will be highly motivated here as they take their home court for the first time in over a week. Charlotte also will be out to snap a 3-game home skid.

The Lakers have been scoring well at home, but I don't expect that to carry over to the road, where they are averaging just 97.7 ppg, especially given that they will be facing a Hornets team that is only allowing 96.5 ppg on their home floor.

Los Angeles is a mere 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 versus a team with a losing record. Charlotte is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 in the 2nd half against up-tempo teams who are averaging 83+ shots/game, 15-4 in their last 19 at home in the 2nd half against teams who are averaging 14 or less turnovers/game, 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 off a SU win by more than 10 points and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home against a team with a road winning percent less than 40%. These trends combine to form a 75% (66-22) system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte!

4* NBA Total No Brainer on Raptors/76ers UNDER

The books have completely missed the mark in this one. Each of the last two meetings between these two teams have seen a combined score of 184 or less, including a mere 177 points in the most recent meeting at Philadelphia.

I'm expecting a similar low-scoring affair tonight, as we have a highly motivated Toronto team that is looking to snap a 5-game losing streak and a Philadelphia team that is averaging just 86.9 ppg in division matchups and will be without their leading scorer Robert Covington.

UNDER is 10-0 in the 76ers last 10 off a blowout loss by 20+ points, 21-9 in Philadelphia's last 30 after playing their last previous game as a road underdog, 20-6 in their last 26 when revenging a same season loss and 8-3 in the Raptors last 11 off a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 77% (59-18) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Pelicans/Nuggets NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

This is way to many points for this matchup. The Pelicans are still without Davis and Anderson and are averaging just 96.5 ppg on the road for the season. The Nuggets on the other hand are a complete mess offensively right now. Denver hasn't scored 100 points in 5 straight and have failed to surpass 82 points in 3 of their last 5. Adding to this is the fact that the last time these two teams met, they combined for a mere 178 points.

UNDER is 12-3 in the Nuggets last 15 off a blowout loss by 20+ points, 21-6 in their last 27 against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game and 10-1 in their last 11 in the 2nd half of the season versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game. UNDER is also 6-2 in the Pelicans last 8 road games, 7-2 in their last 9 against at team that's won less than 40% of their games and 7-1 in their last 8 against an opponent who allowed 100+ points in their last contest. These trends add up to form a 81% (63-15) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Hornets/Magic NBA Total Dominator on UNDER

This game has a defensive battle written all over it, as neither of these teams are capable of a whole lot offensively. The Hornets come in averaging a mere 91.6 ppg over their last 5, while the Magic are scoring just 93.0 ppg over their last 5. These two division rivals are very familiar with one another and this will be their 4th meeting this season, which adds to the value here.

UNDER is 13-4 in the Hornets last 17 games overall, 6-1 in their last 7 road games and 5-1 in their last 6 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. UNDER is 7-1 in the Magic's last 8 overall, 6-1 in their last 7 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 84% (41-8) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Spurs/Suns NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

I'm expecting a much lower scoring game than the total that's been set for this matchup. Each of the previous two meetings between these two teams this season have seen 195 or less combined points and the last time they played in Phoenix they combined for just 183.

The big key here is that both of these teams are coming in on little rest. The Spurs will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days. The Suns also are playing 3 in 4 and 6 in the last 9 days. Neither team is going to be looking to push the pace in this one and both teams are going to be highly motivated defensively with just 4.5-games separating the two in the standings.

UNDER is 11-2 in the Spurs last 13 road games after going over the total in their last contest, 21-9 in the Suns last 30 games in the 2nd half against teams that are called for 21 or fewer fouls, 4-0 in San Antonio's last 4 when playing on 0 days rest and 6-2 in Phoenix's last 8 games against a team that's won 60% or more of their games. These trends combine to form a 75% (38-13) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Hawks -

I have no problem backing the Hawks here as a mere 5-point road favorite against the Heat. Both teams will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, which I actually think favors the Hawks, who are a lot deeper than the Heat. Miami is also not nearly as good at home as they are on the road. The Heat are 10-16 at home compared to 15-16 on the road.

Miami is 9-23 ATS in their last 32 home games after playing 2 or more consecutive road games, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after having won 2 of their last 3 and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams who average 6 or more made 3-pointers a game. Atlanta on the other hand is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 21-8 ATS in their last 29 off 3 or more SU wins and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. These trends add up to form a 73% (104-38) system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta!

4* Thunder/Blazers NBA Total Annihilator on Thunder/Blazers UNDER

I believe we are getting some great value here on the UNDER, as the books have inflated the total in this one due both teams coming off high-scoring games and due to the fact that this will be a nationally televised game on ESPN.

The key here is that these two teams have a history of finishing below the mark. In fact, the UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings overall and 4-1 in the last 5 played in Portland. Another key factor is that we have the Thunder playing without Durant and coming in off an overtime game last night against the Suns. This will also be Oklahoma City's 5th game in the last 7 days overall. The Thunder simply aren't going to be able to play at a fast pace. It's also worth noting that the Blazers have held each of their last 5 opponents to 98 or fewer points and are only averaging 93.0 ppg over their last 3.

UNDER is 14-2 in the Trail Blazers last 16 home games with a total greater than 200, 12-4 in their last 16 home games after playing two straight games as a favorite and 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 100+ in their last game. UNDER is also 22-8-2 in Oklahoma City's last 32 against a team with a winning record, 4-0 in their last 4 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 79% (64-17) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Bulls -

With the recent news of the Bulls losing Rose to another knee injury and Chicago losing their first game without him 86-98 at home to the Hornets, the public has quickly backed off this team. Minnesota on the other hand comes in off an impressive 99-77 win at home over the Wizards. I believe we are seeing a huge overreaction not only to the Rose injury, but based on the last game.

It shouldn't have come as a big surprise to see Chicago stumble in their first game without Rose, as his injury really came out of nowhere and the focus just wasn't there. Minnesota is actually the team poised for a letdown, after laying everything they had on the line in Garnett's first game back.

The Timberwolves are also not nearly as good on the road, where they have gone a miserable 5-23 this season. Minnesota is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 against the Eastern Conference, while the Bulls are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a SU loss by 10+ points. These trends combine to form a 74% (23-8) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!

3* NBA Total No Brainer on Cavaliers/Pacers UNDER

These two teams met earlier this month in Indiana and the Pacers came away with a surprising 103-99 home win, which is one of just two losses the Cavaliers have suffered over their last 20 games. While that last meeting finished above the mark set for this one, I look for a much lower scoring game in the rematch.

Indiana is going to be motivated against James, while Cleveland will be motivated with revenge. That's not the only key factor favoring a low-scoring game. The Cavaliers will be without starting point guard Kyrie Irving and aren't going to be looking to push the pace in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. Keep in mind that the Pacers are allowing just 96.4 ppg at home and Cleveland is giving up a mere 94.2 ppg over their last 5.

UNDER is 9-2 in the Cavaliers last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record, 21-5 in their last 26 against an opponent who allowed 100 or more in their last game and 10-3 in their last 13 following a SU win. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Pacers last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record and 12-3 in their last 15 home games against teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers/game. These trends combine to form a 79% (59-16) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Cavaliers -

The Cavaliers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Warriors. Cleveland has turned the corner and are arguably playing the best basketball of any team in the league right now. The Cavaliers have won 16 of 19 overall and 10 straight at home by an impressive 15.2 ppg.

The Warriors did hand Cleveland a 112-94 defeat on their home floor back on Jan. 9, but the Cavaliers had yet to hit their stride and were playing without LeBron James. That loss only adds fuel to the fire for this matchup for Cleveland.

That earlier loss and the Warriors amazing start to the season is a big reason why the Cavaliers are showing such great value at home. The key here is that Golden State has been extremely overvalued of late due to their strong start. The Warriors are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

Cavaliers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games revenging a loss of 10 or more points, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 following a SU win, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games overall and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 against the Western Conference. These trends combine to form a 79% (49-13) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Timberwolves -

The Timberwolves are showing some solid value here as small home favorite against the Wizards. Washington has been in a complete free fall of late, as they come in having lost 4 straight and 9 of 11 overall. This may seem like a good spot for them to bounce back against a Minnesota team that has been one of the worst in the league, but the Timberwolves are playing much better basketball of late and will be extremely motivated to get revenge from an ugly 14-point loss at Washington earlier this season.

The big key here is this is a horrible spot for the Wizards. Washington comes in off a huge home game against the Warriors last night and are going to find it difficult to find the energy needed to play on the road with no rest. It's not just the back-to-back that's going to limit the Wizards. This will be their 4th game in the last 6 days.

Washington is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after playing a game with a combined score of 205 or more points and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 against up-tempo teams that are averaging 83 or more shots per game. Wizards are also 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with losing records, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on no rest and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 81% (43-10) system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

4* Nets/Pelicans ATS No Brainer on Nets -

The Nets come in to this one off back-to-back road wins over the Lakers (114-105) and Nuggets (110-82) and I look for them to carry over that momentum with a road win over the short-handed Pelicans. New Orleans has won two straight, but aren't going to be able to maintain this success with the likes of Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson both sidelined with injuries.

The Nets quietly got better at the trade deadline by dealing away aging veteran Kevin Garnett and adding in Thaddeus Young, who gives them some a big contributor off the bench to go with Lopez. It's also worth noting that Brooklyn had been playing well even before the trade, as they have now covered 7 of their last 10.

The Nets are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 off a road blowout win by 20+ points. We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Pelicans. Teams off two or more upset wins as an underdog against an opponent off 2 or more straight covers as a favorite are 19-46 ATS since 1996. That's a 71% System in favor of the Nets. Take Brooklyn!

4* NBA Total Dominator on Raptors/Mavericks UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in this one, as I don't see this game reaching 200 points. While these are two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA on the season, Toronto is averaging just 92.0 ppg over their last 5 and the Mavericks are putting up just 95.4 ppg over their last 5. It's also important to note that both teams have also been limiting opponents on the defensive end. The Raptors are allowing just 90.6 ppg over their last 5 and Dallas is giving up just 96.4.

Dallas is still trying to get use to playing with Rondo and are also adjusting to a new rotation with the addition of Amar'e Stoudemire. It's going to take some time before they get going offensively. This will be the Mavericks 4th game in the last 6 days and the Raptors 4th in the last 5. Neither team figures to be playing at a fast pace due to the lack of rest, which also adds some great value to this one going below the mark.

UNDER is 8-1 in the Mavericks last 9 home games after going under the total in 2 or more consecutive games, 7-0 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference and 5-0-1 in their last 6 at home against a team that's won 60% or more of their road games. UNDER is also 9-1 in the Raptors last 10 after a close loss by 3 points or less and 13-4 in their last 17 against teams outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game. These trends combine to form a 88% (42-6) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Eastern Conference Total Annihilator on Bulls/Bucks UNDER

I'm expecting a low scoring affair tonight between these two Central Division rivals. Both teams come in playing well and there's just 3.5-game separating the two. Chicago has won 5 of 6, while the Bucks have taken 9 of their last 11.

Not only am I expecting both teams to bring the defensive intensity, but the Bucks current form adds some value here to this one. Milwaukee was active at the trade deadline, trading away Brandon Knight, while acquiring Michael Carter-Williams, Tyler Ennis and Miles Plumlee. Carter-Williams hasn't played in either of the Bucks first two games since the break and is doubtful tonight. Milwaukee also hasn't any time to practice and form some chemistry, as they get ready to play the second of a back-to-back set and 3rd in 4 overall.

Each of the Bucks first two games since the break have been extremely low-scoring largely due to this. They combined for just 170 points in a 89-81 win over the Nuggets on Friday and just 183 in yesterday's 86-97 loss to Atlanta. Adding to this is the fact that each of the first two meetings this season have combined for 182 or less.

UNDER is 15-5 in the Bucks last 20 off 2 or more consecutive games that finished under the total, 9-1 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 or more in their last game, 8-1 in their last 9 against at team that's won 60% or more of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on no rest. UNDER is also 21-12 in the Bulls last 33 with a total of 190 to 199.5 and 32-16 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. These trends combine to form a 71% (89-36) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Game of the Month on Timberwolves +

The Timberwolves are showing some great value here as a near double-digit underdog to the Rockets. Minnesota has quietly started playing much better basketball of late and the books are slow to adjust based on their 12-42 overall record. The Timberwolves returned from the All-Star break with a win at home over the Suns, giving them 4 wins in their last 6 games.

The Rockets bounced back from a 110-111 loss at Dallas with a 98-76 blowout win at home over the Raptors, which is also playing into this inflated line. The key thing here is that Houston was all business against Toronto after losing to the Mavericks. I don't see that same intensity here in what will be their 3rd game in 4 days and a much bigger home game against the Clippers on deck, who they recently lost to by 15-points back on Feb. 11.

The Rockets won the most recent meeting 114-112 at Minnesota, which sets up the Timberwolves in a profitable spot. Minnesota is 12-4 ATS this season revenging a home loss. The Timberwolves are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when playing on 2 days rest. It's also worth noting that Houston is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. These trends combine to form a dynamite 84% (27-5) system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in this one. Memphis will be playing their first game since the All-Star break and will be looking to start off strong after going into the break with an embarrassing 89-105 loss at Oklahoma City. The Trail Blazers are also going to be motivated here after an ugly 76-92 loss at Utah in their first game back from the break.

Portland is a strong offensive team, but will take some time to adjust to the additions of Alonzo Gee and Arron Afflalo. I look for the Trail Blazers to struggle to get going offensively here against one of the best defensive teams in the league. Portland is better defensively than people give them credit for, especially at home where they are allowing just 93.1 ppg.

UNDER is 19-9 in Portland's 28 home games this season, 22-10 in their last 32 home games after failing to cover the spread last time out and 27-12 in their last 39 off an upset loss by 10+ points.

Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 63-23 over the last 5 seasons on Sunday when you have a total of 190 to 199.5, with a team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a 73% long-term system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Early Bird Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cavs/Knicks UNDER

The books have set the mark too high for this early matchup on Sunday between the Knicks and Cavaliers. Cleveland returned from the All-Star break with a blowout 127-89 win at Washington on ESPN and I just don't see them being 100% invested in this one. New York is one of the worst teams in the league and the Cavaliers know they can show up for half this game and come away with a win.

While Cleveland is just going through the motions, I expect the Knicks to come out with a lot of energy at home against LeBron James and company. New York not only is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA (92.4 ppg), they are 28th in the league in pace (92.9). The Knicks know they have know chance if this turns into a shootout, which will have them trying to limit the number of possessions in this game.

UNDER is 12-3 in the Cavaliers last 15 games played on Sunday, 22-3 in their last 25 after 5 or more consecutive games that finished over the total and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. UNDER is also 15-6 in the Knicks last 21 home games and 5-1 in their last 6 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (61-14) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Raptors/Rockets NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Rockets -

The Rockets are showing some great value here at basically a pick'em at home against the Raptors. Toronto is simply being overvalued here after last night's 25-point road win over the Hawks as a 5.5-point underdog. Houston on the other hand lost 100-111 at Dallas in their first game back from the break.

The thing to keep in mind is that the Rockets were short handed last night after making a couple of last minutes trades. They will be welcoming their new additions of Pablo Prigioni and K.J. McDaniels to the lineup tonight and I look for Houston to respond here with a big win at home.

The Rockets are a dominant 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after a SU loss and 23-12 ATS in their last 35 home games against a team with a winning record. We also find a strong system in play. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 in a game involving 2 poor defensive teams (98-102 ppg) after a combined score of 205 or more points in 2 straight games are 41-15 ATS since 1996. That's a 73% system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!

4* Celtics/Kings NBA Vegas Insider on Kings -

The Kings were expecting a lot better than the 18-34 mark they took into the All-Star break, but there's reason to get excited about the future in Sacramento. The Kings have brought in George Karl to take over at head coach and I look for an inspired effort in his debut tonight.

While the Kings will be highly motivated to win their first game under Karl, the Celtics find themselves in a difficult spot. Boston made a trade for Suns point guard Isaiah Thomas in exchange for Marcus Thorton, but Thomas isn't expected to be available for this contest. That's a problem considering both Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk are both out indefinitely. The Celtics only player who is expected to suit up tonight that is averaging double-figures on the season is Avery Bradley at 13.4 ppg.

Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more combined points in their last 10 games against an opponent that has gone under the total by 48 or more combined points in their last 7 games are 65-31 ATS since 1996. That's a 68% system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Timberwolves -

The Suns were extremely active at the trade deadline and as a result are going to be short-handed tonight. Phoenix traded away both Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic. While they did acquire Brandon Knight from Milwaukee, he's not expected to be available for this contest.

It's going to take some time for Phoenix to adjust to life without Thomas and Dragic. Simply put, this is a great spot for the Timberwolves to get a win at home. Minnesota started to get healthy going into the break and had won three straight before losing their last two against two of the best teams in the league in Atlanta and Golden State.

Minnesota has lost each of the first two meetings this season, but were extremely competitive in a 111-113 home loss back on Jan. 6. The Timberwolves are 29-15 ATS in their last 44 games when playing with double-revenge, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 when playing on 3 or more days rest and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against the Western Conference. Suns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 overall and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Adding to this is a strong system. teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are coming off a home loss (Timberwolves), playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 69-32 ATS since 1996. That's a 68% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavaliers -

The Cavaliers went into the All-Star break with an ugly 98-113 loss to the Bulls in a nationally televised game on TNT. Even with that defeat, Cleveland went into the break having won 14 of 16 and I look for them to come out with a statement win against the Wizards on ESPN.

Washington made a trade for Ramon Sessions, but he's not expected to be available. The Wizards are still without the services of Bradley Beal and they went into the break having lost 6 of their last 8. Washington is just 17-40 ATS in their last 57 home games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who have won 60% to 70% of their games and just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Wizards. Home teams revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points against an opponent that is off an upset loss as a favorite to a division rival are just 11-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland!

4* Spurs/Clippers NBA Vegas Insider on Spurs -

The Clippers finished up with back-to-back blowout wins at Dallas (115-98) and at home against the Rockets (110-95) prior to the All-Star break, despite the fact that they were without All-Star power forward Blake Griffin. I just don't see them maintaining that level of success without Griffin and I look for them to struggle coming out of the break against the Spurs.

San Antonio will be all business in this one, as they haven't forgot about that 20-point loss the Clippers handed them on their home floor back on Jan. 31. The Spurs are finally healthy and are poised to go on big run down the stretch. Keep in mind that San Antonio had won each of the previous 4 meetings in the series, including a 113-103 road win in their last visit to LA, which just so happened to be the first game both teams after last year's All-Star break.

Clippers are just 11-21 ATS in their last 32 games against teams that are averaging 99+ points/game, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off 3 or more days of rest and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record.

Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, who are playing just their 3rd or less game in 10 days are 36-12 ATS since 1996. That's a 75% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

4* Rockets/Clippers Late Night Bailout on Rockets +

This might seem like a great spot to back the Clippers as a small home favorite. LA comes in off an impressive 115-98 win at Dallas and will be catching the Rockets in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. However, I think the real value here is with Houston.

The Clippers will be returning home from a lengthy 8-game road trip in what will be their final game before the All-Star break. Teams tend to relax at home after a long road trip and I expect that to be the case here. The Clippers lost All-Star Blake Griffin in a 108-131 loss at Oklahoma City. To no surprise they came out extremely motivated in their game against the Mavericks, setting up a huge letdown spot.

Houston hasn't been effected when playing with no rest, as the Rockets are 8-4 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back set. The Rockets have also been one of the best road teams in the NBA, going 18-8 away from home. Houston will also be out for revenge from an ugly 85-102 home loss to the Clippers earlier this season. The catalyst for LA in that win was Griffin, who had 30 and 10 on 11-20 of shooting.

Adding to all of this a strong system backing a fade of the Clippers. Home teams who have lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, who are playing their 5th game in 7 days are a mere 38-79 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 68% system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Wizards +

I think we are dealing with a bit of an inflated line here due to the Wizards having recently lost at home to the Raptors 116-120 back on Jan. 31. Washington also got embarrassed at Toronto 84-103 earlier this season. This is the Wizards last crack at the Raptors during the regular season and I look for them to get their revenge in a big statement win going into the All-Star break.

Toronto isn't going to take this game lightly by any means, but I'm not expecting their best effort here. The Raptors are laid everything on the line in a hard fought 87-82 home win over the Spurs last time out. 

The Wizards come in off two impressive wins over the Nets (114-77) and Magic (96-80), where they got back to putting the focus into the defensive side of the ball. Something they didn't have when allowing 120 points to the Raptors in that last meeting.

Washington is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games after allowing 85 points or less in their last contest. Toronto is 8-18 ATS in their last 26 home games when listed as a favorite of 6-points or less and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games when they come in having won 8 or more of their last 10 games. These add up to a strong 77% (55-16) system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

4* Lakers/Nuggets NBA Late Night Vegas Insider on Lakers -

This is a great spot to back the Lakers at home against the Nuggets, who have lost 6 straight and 13 of 14 overall. The Nuggets not only are playing bad basketball going into the All-Star break, but they are in a tough scheduling spot in the 2nd game of a back-to-back.

That's even more a concern when factor in the tempo of last night's 114-124 loss to the Thunder, along with the fact that this is Denver's last game before the break, where they will have a full 9 days off before playing against on Feb. 20.

The Lakers on the other hand come in on a full days rest and will be returning home for their first game at the Staples Center since upsetting the Bulls 123-118. It's worth noting that the Lakers won the previous meeting 111-103 at Denver back on Dec. 30.

The Nuggets are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 off a double-digit loss in their last game, 5-13 ATS in their last 18 after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 5-14 ATS in their 19 games this season against a team with a losing record.

Adding to this is a strong system backing a fade of the Nuggets. Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a home loss against an opponent off a road loss by 10 or more points are just 16-44 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Lakers. Take Los Angeles!

3* Thunder/Nuggets NBA Late Night Bailout on Thunder -

The Thunder are still two-games out of 8th place in the Western Conference and simply can't afford to lose against a struggling team like the Nuggets. Denver has lost 5 straight and 12 of their last 13 overall.

Oklahoma City will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after yesterday's 131-108 home win over the Clippers and I think that's the only reason we aren't seeing them favored by more in this spot.

The key thing to keep in mind is that the Thunder could actually be the team playing with more energy in this one. Denver has several players battling flu-like symptoms. After Friday's 88-98 loss at Detroit, head coach Brian Shaw stated that the Nuggets have 5 or 6 guys under the weather and went on to say that "We're trying to hang on and keep battling. Hopefully, we can ... (recuperate), re-energize, reboot and give a better effort after the All-Star break."

Oklahoma City is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring 105+ points, while the Nuggets are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 3-15 ATS in their last 18 home games off a road loss by 10 or more points and 0-9 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest. These trends add up to form a 86% (44-7) system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Magic/Wizards UNDER

I believe the books have set the total too high for tonight's matchup between the Wizards and Magic. Washington is coming of a 114-77 home win over the Nets, where they held Brooklyn to just 33.8% shooting. The Wizards had lost their previous 5, so I'm not expecting them to relax at all and I look for the energy to be there again defensively at home.

Orlando on the other hand has been a much stronger defensive team since they fired head coach Jacque Vaughn. The Magic held the Lakers to just 97-points in their first game without Vaughn and held Chicago to 98 yesterday. Prior to these two games, Orlando had allowed 100+ in 14 straight games.

Adding to this is the fact that these two teams have a history of playing low-scoring games. Each of the last have seen a combined score of 191 or less and the Wizards are holding the Magic to just 91.5 ppg over the last 4.

UNDER is 18-7-1 in Orlando's last 26 road games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 14-6-1 in their last 21 when playing on 0 days rest. UNDER is also 4-1 in Washington's last 5 games following a SU win, 4-1 in their last 5 at home against a team with a lsing record and 19-7-1 in their last 27 when playing on 1 days rest. These trends add up to form a 73% (59-22) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Blazers/Rockets Western Conf Game of the Month on Rockets -

Good spot here to go against the Trail Blazers, who just lost in overtime last night against the Mavericks. That extra 5-minutes of action is going to make it hard for Portland to bounce back with the kind of effort needed to win on the road against the Rockets. All 5 starters played at least 37 minutes with everyone but Brook Lopez playing at least 40 minutes.

Tired legs is the last thing you want against James Harden and Houston's uptempo attack. I look for the Rockets to come out really looking to push the tempo here and they shouldn't have much a problem doing so. This will be just their 3rd game in the month of February and each of the previous two have both come at home.

Houston is 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games when playing against a team with a winning record, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games after playing their last game as a favorite and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games after a non-conference matchup. Portland is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 following a SU loss, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on the road. These trends combine to form a 78% (62-18) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!