3* HIGH ROLLER on Sacramento Kings +

The oddsmakers are overvaluing the Washington Wizards tonight in this spot. The Wizards have won 10 straight games against the spread and five upset wins during that stretch. The Kings on the other hand have lost four straight both straight up and against the spread so are out of favor with oddsmakers and the public alike.

However, you want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after they have beat the spread by 18 or more total points in their last three games against opponents who were beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. This system is 24-7 (77.4%) the last five seasons.

Sacramento did beat Washington during their streak by one as a five point favorite, so they have had some recent success against this Wizards team. I think they keep it close again tonight and pick up the cover.

3* VEGAS INSIDER on Dallas -

The Phoenix Suns have been playing good basketball since making their coaching change, but this is a tough spot for them tonight. They played back-to-back games on Wednesday and Thursday, had Friday off before heading to San Antonio to take on the Spurs last night. Now they get Dallas on back-to-back off a tough loss to San Antonio. You want to take home favorites who are playing their second game in five days against a team who is playing their 4th in five. These teams are 32-9 (78%) ATS the last five years.

Dallas has been playing extremely well lately. They have won five of seven, but have covered in seven of their last eight. They have scored more than 103 points in eight straight games. Phoenix on the other hand has broken the century mark just once in 2013. I think the Mavs have more offensive firepower and they blow the Suns out by double digits here today.

3* on Indiana Pacers +

This is a good spot to take Indiana here tonight. The Pacers are off a disappointing 20 point loss at Portland on Wednesday but had a couple of days to rest up and prepare for Utah here tonight. Utah on the other hand is playing their third game in four nights and is coming off a back-to-back. They lost badly to the Lakers last night in LA and now have to travel back home to face an angry Indiana team.

The Pacers are also the better team in my mind. They are outscoring opponents by nearly two points per game and even though Utah's record stands at 23-19, they are dead even in scoring margin.

You want to take road teams after being beaten by the spread by 18 points or more in their previous game, when they are a good team that has won 60%+ of their games on the season. These teams are 54-28 ATS in this situation the last five years. You also want to fade teams revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 or more points against an opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. These teams are 81-42 (65.9%) ATS the last five years.

3* on New York Knicks -

This is too small of a number for New York to be laying here tonight. The Knicks are 26-14 on the season and winning by 4.8 ppg while the Sixers are 17-25 on the year and losing by 4.2 ppg. New York has played well in winning three of their last four games, including a road win at Boston Thursday night. They were favored by -1.5 in that game and now lay only one point more against a worse team.

The Sixers have lost eight of their last 10 with the two wins coming over Toronto and a Houston team that is slumping badly. Now they face a Knicks team that they have lost to by a combined 38 points in two games this season. I don't think now is the time they get back on track as I expect the Knicks to win handily here tonight.

3* Utah Jazz +

The Lakers are not a good team right now and I've lost all confidence in them. Not only that but they are in a pretty bad rest situation. LA played three road games in four nights, then only had a day off before heading home to face the Jazz.

Utah on the other hand is playing only their third game in 11 days and has won four in a row, six of seen, and eight of their last 10. Even though they aren't great on the road they have won three of their last five away from home.

Everyone keeps thinking the Lakers are going to come around at some point, but this team just doesn't fit well together. Dwight Howard is back to his pouting ways and having Gasol play limited minutes off the bench is laughable. I'll keep fading them until they prove me wrong.

A solid situation backs our play that says to fade teams out for double revenge that are off three or more straight road losses. This situation is 77-39 ATS (66.4%) over the last five seasons.

4* NBA Total Dominator on Thunder/Kings UNDER

This is a pretty high number here tonight but I see some value with the UNDER. Oklahoma City has been scoring a lot of points lately, but cooled off a little against Golden State last time out. That loss is important to note because if you look at the teams last three losses, they dial up the defense in the next game. They held the 76ers to 85 points, Wolves to 84, and Clippers to 97 following their last three defeats.

The Kings have had trouble scoring lately. They have scored 97 or less in four of their last five games, and only managed 69 against Memphis last Friday night. I think they will struggle to get points on the board against Oklahoma City again here tonight.

A couple of situations support our play here tonight. One says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 one team is coming off an upset loss while the other is coming off an upset loss as a home favorite. This system is 85-52 (62%) for the UNDER since 1996. The other is to take the UNDER when the road team has a winning record and is playing on Friday night. This situation is 110-59 (67.4%) for the UNDER the last five seasons.

3* on Houston +

I've been burned the last two times out thinking the Rockets were going to come out of their funk, but I think tonight is the night they actually do so. These two teams met back on January 9th and Houston was a two point favorite down in New Orleans. Even though they lost the game, the line change shows you how much the odds makers have changed their outlook on these two teams and I think it's a little too drastic of a move in such a short period of time.

New Orleans has played well lately, but they are still getting outscored by four ppg on the season compared to a Rockets team that is outscoring their opponents by one each time out. Even with the home court advantage that would leave this line to be closer to a Houston as a small favorite instead of a small underdog.

3* on Miami Heat -

The Heat were a little rusty last time out, but came alive in the second half and overtime to beat the Toronto Raptors. It was understandable why Miami got off to such a slow start, they had five days rest coming into the game and were off a big win in LA over the Lakers.

Detroit has been playing pretty well lately too, which is why they are over-valued here tonight. They have covered in three straight games, but will be playing their fourth contest in six nights, while this will only be Miami's second game in more than a week.

The other aspect I like about this game is miami will be out for revenge. The Heat were six point favorites in Detroit just after Christmas and lost by ten to the Pistons. Don't think Detroit won't have Miami's full attention tonight, and that is scary if you are a Pistons fan. Lay the points here.

3* HIGH ROLLER on New York Knicks -

Boston is struggling again and I don't see them getting out of their funk tonight against New York. The Celtics have lost four in a row and they were favored to win each of those games. The last two weren't even really close and those losses came to Detroit and Cleveland due to them shooting below 40% from the field.

New York comes into this game well rested due to their trip last Thursday to London, and you know the Knick players have had this circled since the last time these two teams played on January 7th. That is when Kevin Garnett supposedly said some out of line thing to Carmelo, and I have a feeling New York is going to rally around their star tonight and give this Celtic team some payback. I'll lay the small number and roll with the Knicks.

4* NBA NO BRAINER on Golden State Warriors +

This is a tough situation for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Not only are they playing off a back-to-back, but they are coming off a big win over the LA Clippers, the team many think is their top competition for the Western Conference. Not only that, but they played an overtime game in Denver on Sunday and they will be playing their 7th game in 11 nights.

The Warriors have looked tough in their last two games with Stephen Curry back at full strength. they played tough in San Antonio, then beat a hot Hornets team in New Orleans and then the Clippers. I don't think they are getting enough respect here tonight, especially with the rest situation factored in. I'll gladly take the Warriors in what should be an upset win.

3* on Houston Rockets -

Houston ended their losing streak on Monday but they still haven't covered the last seven games. This has created some value here tonight as they should be laying more than a field goal on their home floor to the Denver Nuggets.

Denver came into Houston earlier this year and upset the Rockets, I think these players will be out for revenge here tonight. Not only that, but the Rockets need a win here to make up some ground on Denver in the Western Conference playoff race.

Denver is only 9-15 on the road this year as they have a significant home court advantage, but then struggle outside of Colorado. They are losing by 2.5 ppg, and this Rockets team is better than average. They have won at home by an average of 5.4 ppg this year while compiling a 14-7 record on their home floor. Lay the small number with confidence here tonight.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma City +

This is a tough spot for the Clippers as they are playing their third game in four nights and coming off a back-to-back against Golden State. They have not covered in two straight games now, playing Washington close Saturday and losing by seven to the Warriors.

Oklahoma City is also coming off a loss, but they've had a day to recover from the hard fought game against the Nuggets. The Thunder have now scored 117 or more points in three straight games, so their offense should be fully clicking as they take on the Clippers. You should also take road teams that are outscoring opponents by more than six points per game after scoring 105 or more in three straight games. These teams are 116-71 (62%) since 1996.

The Thunder won earlier in the year at home by a score of 117-111 and that sets us up for a nice situation tonight. You want to play against any team with a line of less than three that is revenging a loss against an opponent off a home loss. This system is 217-142 (60.4%) over the last five seasons. You also want to go against home favorite revenging a home loss where an opponent scored 110+ points when playing on back-to-back days. This system is 54-24 (69.2%) over the last five seasons.

3* HIGH ROLLER on Milwaukee Bucks -

Philadelphia is not a very good road team as they are just 6-14 away from home this year, scoring 90.1 ppg while allowing 95.9. They are playing a back-to-back in a tough spot, where they took on a very good San Antonio team and had the game in hand late, but fell apart to give the Spurs the victory.

Milwaukee on the other hand has been playing well lately, winning their last two games and covering both on the road. The Bucks have won five of seven with Boylan coaching them. The Bucks also went into Philadelphia earlier this year and won by nine points. This sets us up for a nice situation here tonight where you want to play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9 points who are revering an upset loss off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. This system is 98-49 (66.7%) ATS since 1996.

4* NBA NO DOUBT ROUT on Chicago Bulls -

The Lakers are a good team to fade right now. They are back to full strength but this team just isn't a juggernaut like everyone thought they were going to be. LA finally got Gasol back on Thursday and lost to the Heat, then went up to Toronto and couldn't beat the Raptors. Now they travel down to face a Chicago team that has been playing well.

The Bulls have won three of four with their only loss being at home to Memphis on Saturday, but that was a tough spot off a one point win in Boston the night before. Chicago is only allowing 89.1 ppg at home this season while the Lakers are giving up 107 ppg on the road. Chicago has the ability to shut down the Lake Show, especially with their troubles getting in sync offensively. I think this one is a Bull blowout.

3* NBA Total Dominator on Knicks/Nets UNDER

Two good divisional opponents playing each other on NBA TV today, I think this one has UNDER written all over it. Both teams have played solid defense in the division, the Knicks are allowing a little over 92 ppg while the Nets a little over 94.

Brooklyn has also held four of their last six opponents to under 90 points, while the Knicks have held their last two and three of four under 88. The last time these two teams met they only managed 186 points, so I think you can expect the same kind of result here today.

Play the UNDER when the total is between 190-199.5 when a team is on 2 days rest and coming off a win. This situation is 187-123 the last five seasons. You also want to take the UNDER when a team is playing their 3rd game or less in 10 days when they have a winning record playing a team with a winning record. This system is 105-61 over the last five years.

4* NBA NO BRAINER on Houston Rockets -

So the Rockets have not looked good here lately. They have played six of their last seven games on the road, and the only home contest was against the LA Clippers. It's not really a surprise they have put together a seven game losing streak both straight up and against the spread with that kind schedule and I think it has opened up some value on Houston here in a good spot.

Charlotte is terrible. They are only 10-30 on the year and 5-16 at home. This team is getting outscored by an average of 8.3 ppg and they have lost six of their last seven. There isn't a better team for Houston to get back on track against than Charlotte, and they should do so in BLOWOUT fashion on Monday.

Houston is a PERFECT 8-0 ATS against teams shooting less than 43% with a defense that allows 46% or more the last three years. The Bobcats are just 4-18 ATS against teams who shoot more than 83 times per game the last two seasons and 2-12 ATS at home against teams who attempt 18 or more 3's per game.

3* NBA Total Dominator on Lakers/Raptors UNDER

The LA Lakers are finally at full strength and I think that is going to help them on the defensive end of the floor. This team has held three straight opponents to under 100 points since the return of Dwight Howard, and limited the Bucks to just 35.8% shooting two games ago. The Raptors have been scoring a lot of points, going over in four straight games, but they are only averaging 97.1 ppg on the year and giving up 94.7 ppg at home.

Quite a few systems support our play here today. One says to take the UNDER on Sundays when a team has gone UNDER by 30 or more in their last three games. This system is 128-69 (65%) the last three seasons. Another says to take the UNDER on Sunday when a team hasn't played since Thursday and the total is over 200. This system is 57-24 ATS since 1996. Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3-pointers, and that puts both of them into a system that says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 and a team attempts more than 18 3's per game. The UNDER is 127-71 the last five seasons when just one of these teams play, and both fit the bill here today.

This is an early start at 1 PM EST and these players aren't used to getting going so early. This might be particularly tough on LA, who is playing in the Eastern Time Zone and essentially starting at 10 AM accruing to their body clocks.

4* NBA BAILOUT ATS BLOWOUT on Clippers -

I'm siding with the Clippers here today. Washington has been playing great lately winning four of their last five and covering five straight. Last night they fought hard to come back against the Denver Nuggets, but that actually works against them Saturday as they have to pack up and fly to LA after that tough win.

The Clippers on the other hand jus keep rolling. They are coming off another double digit win on Thursday, this time by 13 points in Minnesota. That made it three straight road wins and covers after the team lost at home to Orlando last Sunday. The Clippers are going to want to put on a good show for the home fans after that embarrassing loss last weekend.

LA is averaging a 12.2 margin of victory on their home floor, scoring 104.5 ppg and giving up just 92.3. Washington on the other hand is averaging a 11 point margin of loss on the road, scoring just 84.6 ppg while giving up 95.6 ppg. Since these two teams are at the extremes in talent level, I would think each succeeds those numbers by quite a few points here tonight.

Last year these two teams played twice in February and the Clippers won by 18 points at home and 26 points on the road. I don't see them having much trouble with Washington here tonight either.

5* Total NO BRAINER on Bobcats/Kings OVER

Two terrible defenses collide on Saturday night and I'm all over the OVER here. The Kings are allowing 103.3 ppg while the Bobcats are giving up 103.5 ppg. Opponents are shooting 45.8% against Sacramento and 46.1% against Charlotte (including 39% from behind the arc).

The Bobcats have and some trouble scoring lately and that had caused the UNDER to hit in four straight games, but they broke out of their fun last night in Orlando to put up 106 points. The Kings had gone OVER in six straight games before siding with the UNDER in their last two, but last night they faced a tough Memphis team so it's easy to see why they struggled to score. That only led to some value here tonight with this total being set lower than it should be.

The Kings are 24-14 OVER in all games this year, but 11-3 OVER when they are playing a team that forces 14 or fewer turnovers per game. A system that supports our play says that when the total is between 200-209.5 take the OVER when the road team has gone over the total by a combined 48 points or more in their previous 10 games. This system is 32-10 over the past five seasons.

4* HEAVY HITTER on Sacramento Kings +

This is a tough spot for the Memphis Grizzlies. They have played a couple of tough games in a row over the past week wight eh Spurs, Mavs, Clippers, and Spurs again. They beat San Antonio by three the first time around, but then lost the next three and all by more than 20 points. Sure, they were playing good teams but getting beat that badly shakes one's confidence. Even with a short break tonight, Memphis then has to play Chicago, Indiana, and Brooklyn in their next three games coming up, setting this team up for both a letdown and a look ahead.

The Kings might not be very good, but they have won two straight. Of course it was against Cleveland and Washington so it was to be expected. Sacramento has now lost six straight against the spread, so they haven't exactly been playing well either, but this is a young team that will be motivated by just winning the last two games.

Memphis isn't a team that blows out their opponents, winning by an average of less than five at home. The Kings have lost by less than 10 ppg on the road this year, so I see a lot of value in taking the points here tonight.



A couple of situations support our play here that say to fade home teams after scoring 85 points or less in three straight games. This situation is 163-103 (61.3%) since 1996. You also want to take teams winning less than 40% of their games after being beaten by 18+ points combined against the spread in their last three games when hey are double digit underdogs. These teams are 44-18 ATS the last five seasons.

3* NBA MAIN EVENT on Lakers -

The LA Lakers are starting to look like themselves all of a sudden. Sure, their lsat two opponents were the Cavs and the Bucks, not exactly top tier teams. When a team beats a team they should you have to look at by how many and the Lakers won both in impressive fashion. It's no surprise that getting Dwight Howard back gave this team a boost, and now word is Pau Gasol is going to play tonight against the Heat. Since LA is just 5-8 without Gasol this year, I think he'll give them a real boost down low, especially since Miami lacks front court depth behind Chris Bosh.

Miami won in impressive fashion at Golden State last night, but the team has been struggling against top tier teams. They lost at Utah, at Portland, at Indiana, and at home against Chicago to start the 2013 year. Some would argue that the Lakers aren't a top tier team with a sub. 500 record, but they have top tier talent that will go all out on a Thursday night TNT game. The Heat are just 4-12 ATS after playing as a road favorite.

5* NBA NO LIMIT on Cleveland Cavs +

Cleveland has had a tough little road trip but I think they will play tough against Portland on Wednesday night. We are getting some value here because Cleveland has lost the first three games of their West Coast swing, but the Cavs have already faced the Blazers once this season and lost by a single point at home back on December 1st.

The trouble with Portland is that they are playing on back-to-back nights, but they haven't really played well lately either. The Blazers lost at Golden State and at home to the Thunder the last two games. As I write this they are playing the Nuggets tough, but that game is being played in Denver. Tonight they will have to travel back to Portland, crossing nearly 1,200 miles and a time zone to play a bad team on Wednesday night.

So, not only is the rest situation not working in Portland's favor, but they are also going to be in a letdown spot. Portland and Denver are battling it out for the second spot behind Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division and the Blazers currently sit only a half game up on Utah for the 8th and final playoff spot. They will have spent everything they have trying to win in Denver to get an edge in the standings and in any tiebreaker situation late in the year. Playing a non-conference team that is 9-31 isn't going to be high priority after that.

Take the points with the Cavs tonight as heach coach Terry Stotts is just 66-93 ATS against teams with a losing record.

4* HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma City Thunder -

Denver is coming off a tough divisional game last night in which they took the Portland Trailblazers to overtime before coming out on top. Now they have to take to the road to take on the best team in the West, and I think this number is a little short of what I expected since this will be the Nuggets third game in four nights.

Denver is hot right now winning six in a row, but the Nuggets are just 9-14 on the road this year, losing by 1.5 ppg. The Thunder on the other hand are 18-3 at home, winning by more than 11 ppg.

Oklahoma City has won four in a row, the last three of which came on the road. They have this game at home before kicking off a six game road trip so they know they need a good showing before the tough stretch ahead.

3* on Boston Celtics -

The Hornets have been an awful 6-13 on the road this year, losing by 4 ppg while Boston is 13-6 at home winning by 4.5 ppg. The public is jumping on this New Orleans team now that they have won five of their last six games both straight up and against the spread, but Boston is just as hot since Avery Bradley returned to the lineup, winning their last six straight up and five of those at the pay window.

New Orleans is coming off a nice win last night in Philadelphia, but this will be their third game in four nights. The Celtics on the other hand have only played once since last Friday, so the veterans have had plenty of time to get their legs back under them. These two teams played at the beginning of the season last year, and New Orleans won at home by 19. Don't think for a second this Celtic group doesn't remember that and they will be out to prove a point tonight.

3* on Atlanta Hawks -

Atlanta was embarrassed in Chicago the other night, only putting up 58 points in the 39 point loss. Now Atlanta has dropped six of their last seven both straight up and at the pay window, and it has given us some value with this team tonight.

Brooklyn is coming off a tough divisional game against the Raptors last night so they are on short rest playing their third game in four nights. They have won nine of 10 since PJ took over the reigns, but that has just inflated their value here tonight. The Hawks are 12-6 at home while the Nets are 8-8 on the road. The odds makers are over-adjusting on this one so take advantage.

5* NBA NO BRAINER on Chicago Bulls -

The Toronto Raptors are in a tough spot on Wednesday night as they will be flying from Brooklyn back home to face the Chicago Bulls. Toronto not only has to fly back home, but they are coming off a hard fought divisional game against the Nets.

The Bulls are a tough matchup for Toronto because they do a good job of getting to the line, and they convert 79% of their free throw attempts. Toronto allows their opponents who average only 22 attempts per game to get to the line 27 times a contest against them, so expect Chicago to pile on some easy points Wednesday.

Chicago's head coach Tom Thibodeau called out his players before the Atlanta game, saying their weren't putting for the effort the liked on defense. What did the Bulls do? They held Atlanta to just 58 points on Monday. If you don't think that carries over think again. Teams that have held opponents to less than 65 points are 52-39 ATS the following game. Toronto even played Chicago in this situation last March and Chicago went into Toronto and won by 12 points as 7.5 point favorite, holding Toronto to just 82 points.

Thibodeau is 25-10 ATS on the road after a home win in Chicago and the Bulls are 22-11 ATS as a road favorite the last two years. I'll take Chicago as I think they win big up north.

4* Total NO BRAINER on Bucks/Lakers UNDER 212.5

The Lakers have had some high totals recently and for good reason as they were both scoring and giving up over 100 points per game. Dwight Howard returned against the Cavs on Sunday though and LA held Cleveland to just 93 points. I think that trend continues here tonight as they have held opponents to just 43.7% shooting at home, including 32.1% from 3-point range.

Milwaukee hasn't scored as well on the road, but interestingly enough they have played better defense than at home, giving up just 95.9 ppg outside of Milwaukee. The Bucks have seen 3 of the four totals go OVER since Skiles was fired, but none of those were set anywhere near as high as tonight's. Lots of value in the UNDER here and I'll take it.

A great system supports our play that says to take the UNDER when one team is off a home blowout win of 20 points or more and their opponent is off a road win of 10 or more. This system has gone 92-46 (66.7%) for the UNDER since 1996. Another situation that applies says to take the UNDER when a team is on the road with a total of 210 or more and they are coming off an upset win as a double digit underdog. These teams are 47-16 (74.6%) for the UNDER since 1996.

5* NO LIMIT on Indiana Pacers -

Indiana had been rolling along, winning four in a row and 10 of their last 12 before a loss in Brooklyn on Sunday. They are going to want to right the ship tonight against the Bobcats, a team they just beat on Saturday night at home by eight points. There is plenty of value in this one as well since Indiana hasn't covered their last four times out.

The Bobcats are going to have a tough time putting up points since they only average 95.5 ppg and Indiana is holding their foes to just 89.3 not he year. Indiana on the other hand should be able to get things going as the Bobcats allow 103.6 ppg.

Back in early November Indiana traveled to Charlotte and lost by a single point. You can bet that point has been hammered home to them and they will come out hungry from the opening tip, and pull away fast. Indiana needs to take advantage of soft spots in their schedule to make up for their slow start, and they do that tonight.

The Bobcats are 17-34 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last two seasons and 14-28 ATS at a home underdog.

5* NBA Total Dominator on Kings/Cavs OVER

Sacramento's defense has been terrible all year long, but the last four games it's been something special. All four opponents have scored 113 or more points against them and this team hasn't let a team score under 94 points since way back on December 8th. It's no surprise that the Kings have gone OVER in five straight and 10 of their last 11 and I don't think they will have a problem eclipsing this number tonight either.

Cleveland isn't a great offensive team, but they have their own struggles on the defensive side of the ball. On the road they are giving up 100.4 ppg on 47.9% shooting against teams scoring just 96.5 on 44.4%.

This team has allowed 97 or more points in eight of their last nine games.

The Kings are 39-21 OVER when the total is between 200-210 the last three seasons and 14-6 OVER at home this year. Sacramento is 23-11 OVER in non-confernece games the last two years and 15-7 OVER after a loss this year. Finally, since 1996 the Kings are 34-18 OVER at home when playing a team with a winning percentage 25% or lower.

All sign point to a lot of scoring tonight, so take the OVER.

3* NBA Total Dominator on Thunder/Blazers UNDER

This is a big game for both teams as Portland is trying to establish themselves as a legitimate playoff contender after winning four of their last five and six of their last eight. Now they host a division rival that is the best team in the West.

Oklahoma City hasn't been a slouch on the road, but their shooting dips from 47.9% at home to 46.3% on the road, but behind the arc it goes from 39.6% down to 34.2%. Portland is a team that allows only 31.2% 3-point shooting at home, so the Thunder are not going to be able to get as many trips where they get three points instead of two here today.

Earlier this year the odds makers set a total for 205 in Oklahoma City and the two teams played to 198 points. Now they have dropped the number quite a bit and I still don't think it's enough.

A couple of systems that support our pick say to play the UNDER in divisional games when the total is between 190 and 200 when one team is off two straight covers as a favorite. This system is 50-21 (70.4%) the last five seasons. Another one is to play the UNDER with any team that outscores their opponents by 9+ ppg when hey are coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more. This situation is 70-41 (63.1%) for the UNDER the last five years.

4* NO DOUBT ROUT on Chicago Bulls -

The Suns are a dreadful 2-17 on the road this year losing by 11.5 ppg so I don't think this number is quite high enough. Last night Phoenix played the Brooklyn Nets tough in the first half and then were absolutely blown out in the 2nd, losing the game by 20. Now they have to travel to Chicago for a quick turnaround against a Bulls team that took it to New York last night.

Both of these teams are playing their third game in four nights, but for Phoenix it will actually be their fourth in five. Plus this is the last game of a four game road trip that has not gone very well, so I imagine the players will be anxious to get back home.

The Bulls have now won four of their last five games. The Bulls beat the Suns by six earlier in the year in Phoenix, so I see another blowout on the horizon tonight as they host the Suns. Phoenix is 19-32 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent the last two seasons and Chicago is 22-9 ATS playing their 3rd game in four days.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Detroit Pistons -

Both of these teams are off back-to-backs, but a couple of things point in the Pistons favor here today. The first is that they blew Milwaukee out 103-87 so they didn't have to bring the intensity late. Utah was leading or competitive for most of the game with the Hawks so they spent a little more energy in last night's game.

The other is that Detroit had four days off coming into the game and will be playing only their fourth game of 2013, so they have had plenty of rest. Utah will be playing their 7th game since the turn of the year and third in four nights.

The Jazz are a decent team but they are terrible on the road, going just 8-15 and being outscored by 5+ ppg. Hard to believe they are only getting tow points against a Detroit team that is beating opponents by 3.4 ppg at home and has now won seven of nine and give of their last six games.

The Pistons are 16-5 ATS at home against teams who make 36% or more of their three point shot attempts. The Jazz are 22-34 ATS on the road and 8-22 ATS after two or more non-conference games the past three seasons.

4* NBA Total NO BRAINER on Bobcats/Pacers UNDER

What we have here is a Charlotte team that is scoring just 93 ppg on the road and a Pacers team allowing 86.6 ppg at home. I'm having trouble discerning just where the Bobcats are going to get their points from as their 42.4% shooting takes on a defense that allows 40.3% on their home floor. Plus, on no rest they won't have time to make any adjustments from their 78 point showing last night in Toronto.

Indiana's defense has been downright sick, allowing 83 points or less in five of their last six, including holding Miami to 77 and New York to 76. Those are two teams that put up their share of points, and not even they could score against the Pacers.

Charlotte is so bad because their defense is terrible, particularly against the 3-point shot. The good news is that Indiana doesn't shoot a lot of outside shots so will get the majority of their points two at a time. The Pacers have scored less than 90 points in five of their last six games.

Indiana is 13-3 UNDER after a combined score of 175 points or less their last four games since 1996 and the Pacers are 34-20 UNDER against teams allowing their opponents to make more than 46% of their shots the last three years. Another system supporting our play says to take the UNDER when you have a team allowing 103+ ppg after a blowout loss of 20 points or more. The UNDER is 220-143 (60.6%) in this situation dating back to 1996.

3* NBA Total Dominator Clippers/Magic UNDER

Orlando has been playing some high scoring games, but that should come to an end here this afternoon. Both of these teams had two days rest which means plenty of time to refresh the tired legs, plus to get some practice in to shore up any problems on the defensive side of the ball.

You know the Magic have been working on defense too, they have allowed their last nine opponents to score 96 points or more and six of their last seven have put up 105 or more. However, on the season they are only averaging 94.8 ppg so they aren't going to stop their losing streak if they don't get some stops.

The Clippers are getting a reputation as a high scoring team, yet are only putting up 101.8 ppg. What they are doing is play solid defense in allowing opponents to score only 93.1 ppg, and that number drops to 91.7 ppg at home. This game has blowout written all over it, and when a team has a large lead they eat up the clock late. Couple that with the fact this game starts at 3:30 EST and a little after noon in Pacific time where the game will be played, and I'm seeing a lazy start. NBA players aren't used to starting their work days so early.

3* NO DOUBT ROUT on Golden State Warriors -

This is a good matchup for the Warriors to get back on track after losing two straight games to the Clippers and Grizzlies. Portland comes into this one fresh off last night's win over the Miami Heat. The Blazers put everything they had into that game, as most teams do, so it's going to be difficult for them to play on no rest down in Oakland.

Portland shoots four more 3-point shots a game than their opponents normally allow, so they will have trouble against a Golden State team allowing just 30% from beyond the arc at Oracle Arena. The Warriors are shooting 47% at home while Portland allows 47.3% on the road.

In comparison, Golden State is giving up just 42.1% at home while Portland is shooting 42.4% outside of Oregon. Don't be afraid to lay the points with the home chalk here tonight.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Minnesota Timberwolves +

New Orleans has played well over the past week and it has created a little bit of value here for us tonight. The Hornets have won three straight and their last two were particularly impressive over San Antonio and Houston since they held those teams to 88 and 79 points, respectively.

Minnesota is coming off an ugly 22 point loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday, but the Thunder are one of the best teams in the league and were out for blood after getting blown out themselves the game before. The Wolves were without Kevin Love, who re-injured his hand and will be out for a couple of months. However, that loss isn't as significant as I think is reflected in this line since Love wasn't really himself this year. He was shooting terribly and only putting up significant numbers due to the volume of shots he was taking. Sure, they will miss some of his rebounding but this team has done a pretty good job this year even without him producing like his normal self.

The Wolves won in New Orleans back on 12/14 by a score of 113-102 and were 4.5 point favorites. Now they are getting two points which is an over-reaction to how the Hornets have played recently and the loss of Kevin Love. Take the visitors and the points tonight.

3* Total Dominator on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER

This is a low total for a San Antonio team that is averaging 105 ppg, but they haven't been as explosive here lately. The Spurs put up only 88 points at New Orleans and 83 points at New York in their last two road games and have now played UNDER the total in four straight games and six of their last seven.

Memphis has also played UNDER the total in six of their last seven games and they are doing it by continuing to play suffocating defense. During that stretch no team has scored more than 88 points against them and the only OVER was when the Grizzlies threw up 113 against a bad Kings teams. Memphis is only allowing 86.7 ppg at home this year so it isn't just a recent trend either.

Expect some playoff intensity tonight between these two teams as they are tied in the loss column with 10 losses each. They are battling it out for the Southwest Division title so I expect both teams to dial up the defensive intensity as this one goes UNDER easily.

3* HIGH ROLLER on Chicago Bulls +

These two teams have already played twice this year and Chicago has beaten New York both times. The Bulls won at home back on 12/8 by a score of 93-85 and then followed that up with a win in the Big Apple on 12/21 by a score of 110-106. I think they have a good shot at making it three straight here tonight.

The Bulls have been a solid road team this year, going 9-5 compared to 10-9 at home and have one two straight away from the United Center after beating Miami and Orlando last week. Chicago will be focused for this one after losing to Milwaukee on Tuesday night, but the Bucks were an energized bunch playing their second game without previous head coach Scott Skiles.

Chicago is 58-39 ATS on the road the last three seasons including 10-1 ATS on Friday nights. Teams normally bounce back after getting upset at home, and I think Chicago will do just that tonight.

5* Total NO BRAINER on Rockets/Celtics UNDER

These two teams met earlier this season in Houston and played to a final score of 101-89 and I expect another low scoring affair here tonight.

Is it any surprise Boston has upped the defensive intensity over the last five games? Their defensive stopper, Avery Bradley, finally returned from injury and the whole team seems to be rejuvenated. The Celtics have won four in a row and are doing it with defense. Boston has allowed 75, 81, 96, and 79 in those four games and no opponent has shot better than 41.2%.

Houston on the other hand, did not start their three game road trip as planned, losing in New Orleans by a final score of 79-88. The Hornets have been playing better defensively lately, but Boston is better on that end with Bradley than nearly every team in the league.

Solid system backs our play that says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 in non-conference games and one of the teams went UNDER by more than 24 points last game. This system is 51-18 for the UNDER the last five seasons. Plus, when two teams with a winning record face each other on Friday nights and the total is over 200, the UNDER has gone 90-50 over the past five years.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Sacramento Kings -

The Sacramento Kings will be out for revenge against the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night as back on 12/10 Dallas put a beatdown on them 119-96 in which they led 65-43 at the half. Sacramento has also lost back to back games by 20+ points so you know they got down to business over their last two days off.

Before those two games Sacramento had to be flying high (and losing to Brooklyn and Memphis isn't a cause for concern by itself). They had covered in eight of the previous nine games and had even beaten teams like Golden State, Portland, New York, and Boston.

Dallas is coming off a tough game last night in which they played the LA Clippers tough. It's going to be tough to bring the energy on back-to-back nights, especially as Dirk works his way back into game shape. The Mavs have lost four in a row and 10 of their last 11, with their only win coming against the Wizards. Take the Kings tonight.

5* Total NO BRAINER on Bulls/Bucks UNDER

Milwaukee fired coach Scott Skiles and then went out and scored 108 points against the Phoenix Suns last night, so some might think a change of philosophy sparked the offense. In reality it was more just hot shooting as the team shot 9-of-17 from behind the 3-point line. Obviously they can't keep up that pace no matter who is coaching.

The Bulls recent win was a 118-92 spanking of Cleveland that was uncharacteristically high scoring for them. Instead their previous four games they didn't allow their opponent to score more than 94 points, while not scoring more than 96 themselves. On their home floor Chicago is allowing just 89.8 ppg and 42.5% shooting.

The two games these two teams have played this year have both gone UNDER the number. Both games were played back in November with final scores of 93-92 and 93-86. Chicago will want to revenge that home loss on 11/26 and to do that they know defense is their best way to do that. Look for a slow pace game controlled by the Bulls for an easy UNDER here tonight.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Celtics -

The Suns are playing back-to-back off a tightly contested game with the Milwaukee Bucks last night. Phoenix led at half but had a meltdown after the break to lose by 9.

Is it shocking that the Celtics have won three games in a row? Avery Bradley returned four games ago and this team once again is bringing it on the defensive end of the floor. They have allowed 96 points in New York, 81 v. Atlanta, and 75 against the Pacers in their last three games and it's due in large part to getting their best defender back from injury.

Boston won in New York without Rondo on Monday night, but he has served his suspension and will be on the floor tonight. Boston isn't going to take any game lightly, even though this is a non-conference game being played in January. They stand at 17-17 and know that every game is important if they want a high seed come playoff time.

Phoenix is allowing teams to shoot 47.2% against them this year while Boston is shooting 48% at home. With the Suns losing by an average of 10 ppg on the road this year, I see another double digit loss in their future because right now Boston is at full strength and at full strength they are an above average team.

3* TOTAL DOMINATOR on Cavs/Hawks OVER

When these two teams meet up it seems like there are a lot of points that get put up on the board. The Cavs and Hawks have played OVER the number in five straight in this series dating back to the beginning of last year. The Hawks won back on 12/28 102-94 in Cleveland, while in Nov. the Cavs went into Atlanta to win 113-111. Last year the two teams put up 205, 190, and 215 points in their three meetings.

Both of these teams are coming off games in which they sailed over the total as well. The Cavs have actually gone over in three straight with totals of 210, 216, and 210 points. Atlanta had played three straight low scoring games before going to Minnesota last night for a 103-108 finale.

Both of these teams are on short rest so it's not like they will have made any adjustments on defense to shore up their holes, and their offensive outburst should have given the shooters plenty of confidence. I like this one to go over again here tonight.

4* NBA Total NO BRAINER on Heat/Pacers UNDER

Indiana is a team that prefers to slow things down and win with their defense, and I think being the home team they control the pace here tonight. Indiana is only scoring 91.4 ppg against teams allowing 97.9 and giving up 89.8 ppg against teams who score 96.6. They do a great job of shutting down the outside shot, allowing opponents to only shoot 31.2% from behind the arc.

Miami has gone UNDER in two straight games and looked especially tough against Washington on Sunday, allowing the Wizards to score just 71 points on 35.8% shooting. Indiana has gone UNDER in four straight and six of their last seven . They have struggled offensively but shut down opposing shooters.

These two teams met last year in the playoffs and saw their totals around 180. This one is six points higher and I feel like that leads to a good chance the UNDER hits tonight.

Play the UNDER when a team is coming off a win by 15 points or more against an opponent coming off a win by 20 or more. This system is 201-132 (60.4%) dating back to 1996. The Pacers are 40-24 for the UNDER against teams who make 46% or more of their shots the last three years while Miami is 12-1 UNDER off a home win against a divisional rival the last three years.

3* NBA Total Dominator on Nets/Sixers UNDER

Two teams that know each other well face off tonight and I think points will be at a premium. The two teams met back on 12/23 with the Nets winning 95-92, just slipping under the total of 187.5. That made the UNDER 8-5 now when these two teams have met dating back to the 2009-10 season. When you play each other as many times a year as these two do, you have a pretty good idea of what your opponents likes to do and it's easier to stop.

The Sixers have been having problems putting points on the board anyway. Philadelphia has scored more than 89 points just once in their last six games so it's no surprise this team has gone UNDER in five of their last six and seven of their last nine. Brooklyn has been putting up points lately which has inflated this total a little bit, but the value is with the UNDER.

Brooklyn is 13-4 UNDER against teams who turn the ball over 14 times or less this year and they are 21-7 UNDER against teams who make six or more 3's per game the last two years. The Nets are 15-5 UNDER when playing on two days rest the last three years and 19-6 UNDER on the road after an over the last two years.

3* High Roller on Hornets +8 over Spurs

New Orleans has played San Antonio twice this year and have kept it close both time. The first was in New Orleans back on 10/31 where the Spurs won 99-95, then the Hornets traveled to San Antonio on 12/21 and dropped the game 94-99. That should give the team plenty of confidence they can hang with one of the best teams in the league.

San Antonio has been a covering machine lately, cashing tickets in six of their last eight. We rode them over Philadelphia on Saturday to revenge their loss to New York, but this could be a little bit of a look past situation with the Lakers and Grizzlies on deck.

New Orleans should have some confidence after winning in Dallas on Saturday night and they are in a good spot. The Hornets are 24-12 ATS revering a same season loss and 33-18 ATS as an underdog of between 3.5-9.5 points the last two seasons.

4* Total Dominator on Pistons/Bobcats OVER 193.5

Charlotte is a bad defensive team and Detroit should be able to take advantage of that here today. The Bobcats are giving up 105.7 ppg on the road to teams that are scoring just 97.1 ppg and 17 of their last 18 opponents have score 97 or more points against them.

Detroit had been scoring a decent amount of points lately, putting up 96 or more in six straight before beating Atlanta 85-84 Friday night. At home they have been shooting 46.7% on the year and 39.5% from behind the arc. That should bode well for them as Charlotte is giving up 40.7% from 3-point range away from home. The Pistons are 25-10 for the OVER against bad teams who are outscored by 6+ ppg on the year and 10-1 for the OVER at home after allowing 85 or less the last three seasons.

The last three match ups between these two teams have gone OVER by scores of 109-85, 110-107 and 109-94. All signs point to a lot of points here on Sunday.

5* Pacific Division Game of the Year on the Warriors +6 over the Clippers

Golden State beat the Clippers the first time around by a final score of 114-110 so this team should be confident they can go into LA and do it again tonight. Add in the fact that Golden State just beat them on Wednesday night at home and you can see why we like the matchup. Some might consider the Clippers as motivated to revenge the early season loss, but that is more of a myth than reality in the NBA. In fact, teams with a winning record that are favorites of 3.5-9.5 points revenging two straight losses where opponents put up 100 or more are just 42-78 ATS the last 5 seasons.

There aren't many teams playing better than the Warriors right now and they are doing it against some stiff competition. They blew out the Bobcats back on 12/21 at home, then took the Lakers to the wire in Steve Nash's return to the lineup. A four game winning streak quickly followed with an 11 point win in Utah, a 7 point win over the Sixers, 18 points over the Celtics, and the 21 point beating they handed the Clippers.

LA is struggling after their long winning streak, losing by 14 at Denver and by 21 at Golden State. They have to play their cross town rival Lakers on Friday night and you know they are going to go all out for that game on ESPN. Don't plan on them having this game circled against the Warriors tonight even with Golden State beating up on them a few days ago.

This is a tough spot for the Clippers. This will be the team's fourth game in five nights and seventh in their last ten. The rest situation is brutal for LA right now as they haven't had more than one day off since 12/12. The Warriors take advantage and cover here tonight.

3* No Doubt Rout on San Antonio -12.5 over Philadelphia

Look for the Spurs to bounce back at home tonight against Philadelphia. Teams that are outscoring their opponents by 3+ ppg usually come back strong after a blowout loss of 15 points or more, going 110-67 ATS over the last five seasons. San Antonio is outscoring opponents by 8.2 ppg and is coming off a 17 point loss to the Knicks on Thurday night. This is a tough spot for the Sixers as they are playing their fourth game in five nights. They had to play in Oklahoma City last night and played the Thunder pretty tough in the first half before running out of gas in the second.

This is the final game of a eight game road trip before the team gets a couple of days off leading into a home game against Brooklyn. If a team is ever looking to get home it happens after a stretch like this, especially when the team has only managed two wins so far during the trip. The Spurs should jump out early and stay ahead by double digits most of the game.

3* Total Dominator on Nets/Kings UNDER 195.5

Both of these teams are coming off back-to-backs but the Brooklyn Nets are in a unique situation of playing on no rest after a double overtime thriller last night against the Washington Wizards. I think that means you'll be seeing this team slow it up a little more as they won't have the energy to push the pace.

That's good news for a Kings team that is giving up 101.6 ppg on the year and only scoring 96.8. Brooklyn doesn't score a lot anyway, putting up only 94.7 on the year against teams allowing 97.6. The Nets are a strong defensive team allowing 94.4 ppg against teams who score 98.2.

The recent high scoring streak for Sacramento has given us a few points of value here. These two teams met earlier in the year for a 99-90 final with a total of 192.5. Now the total is four points higher and the Nets are tired and will slow the pace. Roll the UNDER with confidence.

3* High Roller on Sacramento Kings +7.5 over New Jersey Nets

I'm going against the Nets who are off a back-to-back and to compound matters went into double OT last night with the Washington Wizards, one of the worst teams in the league. This forced Lopez, Williams, and Johnson to all play more than 44 minutes, which should give the stars some tired legs for this one tonight. This is New Jersey's eight game in 12 games, so not a good time to be coming off a double overtime game the night before.

The Kings are off an impressive 105-96 win in Toronto in which they led by 19 going into the fourth quarter, so even though they are on a back-to-back they should be a little more rested as none of their guys played more than 35 minutes.

Sacramento has now covered in five straight and in eight of their last nine. I think the odds makers continue to discount how much this team has improved lately and I'll go with them again here tonight.

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Bucks/Pacers UNDER 185.5

These two teams have played twice already this year and have played some pretty low scoring games. Back on 11/14 the bucks won 99-85, staying under the 189.5 point total then on 12/18 the teams went over the 185 point total by a few points with their 98-93 final.

Since that game this Pacers team has been playing some pretty low scoring games, allowing just one opponents since to score more than 91 points. Milwaukee has been playing some high scoring games against high scoring teams, but that has only worked in our favor to create value now that they are playing a slower pace team.

Indiana is allowing only 88.6 ppg at home to teams scoring 96.7 ppg and they are only scoring 91.7 ppg against teams that allow 97.8. Both of these teams are going to be fighting for a playoff spot this year so divisional games like this mean playoff like intensity even in early January.

I know both teams are off back-to-backs, but each game in with plenty of rest before that. Indiana had five days off over Christmas and the Bucks played only once between 12/22 and 12/29 so I don't think either will have tired legs. This one is a defensive battle and stays UNDER.

3* Total Dominator on Heat/Bulls UNDER 191.5

Two good teams playing on ESPN tonight and you can expect both of them to bring the intensity to the defensive side of the floor. Even though these two teams play contrasting styles I think Chicago will try to slow the Heat down as the Bulls are 31-18 UNDER when playing a team with a winning record the last two seasons.

Miami shoots a lot of three pointers and does a good job of knocking them down, but the Bulls are 14-4 for the UNDER against teams who shoot 18 or more 3's per game this year. Miami's 103.6 ppg is one of the highest in the league but the Bulls are 15-5 UNDER against teams who average 103+ ppg the last three years.

The last two times these two teams met the total went under 183.5 and 185 by final scores of 83-72 and 86-96. These two have a history of tough games that are low scoring and I don't see why that doesn't continue here tonight.

4* Main Event Major on Knicks -1 over Spurs

It's always tough going against a hot team like San Antonio and taking a team that is struggling like the Knicks, but that has opened up some value in the line here tonight. The Spurs have strung together seven straight victories and have covered the spread in five of their last six. New York on the other hand has lost three of their last four and covered only once in their last six games.

However, this team knows that they can hang with San Antonio, they already did so back on 11/15 when they visited the Spurs and came away with a four point win. The Spurs have had a fairly brutal schedule here lately as this is their sixth game in nine nights. I think the fatigue starts to catch up with them as they fall in New York.

Solid situation supporting our play on New York says take home teams of between +3/-3 that are off an upset loss as a favorite who have a winning percentage of above 60%. These teams are 81-43 ATS since 1996. Plus, the Knicks are 23-10 ATS at home as a favorite of six points or less the last three years.

3* Double Digit Blood Bath on Houston Rockets -9.5

We backed the Hornets last night and they cost us with some poor play down the stretch. Now they have to pack up and head to Houston to take on one of the hottest teams in the league in Houston.

New Orleans has reached the 100 point barrier just one time in their last 15 games, and that was back on 12/14 against Minnesota when they gave up 113. Houston on the other hand has scored 109 or more in six of their last eight games.

The Rockets score too many points for New Orleans to catch up. Houston is a good 3-point shooting team who shoots a lot from outside, while the Hornets allow opponents to shoot 38% from behind the arc. I'm expecting a healthy amount of points, so don't have any problem laying just under double digits.

3* Money Maker on Pacers -10.5

Washington had a chance to pick up a much needed win last night against the Mavericks but an awful third quarter did this team in again. That made it 10 losses in their last 11 games and I don't like their chances going to Indiana to face a Pacers team that has won five of their last six and eight of their last 10 games.

The Pacers have been playing well this year by playing suffocating defense and holding opponents to 7 ppg below their season average. Washington on the other hand makes everyone look defensively, scoring 9 ppg less than their opponents allow.

Even though this is going to be a low scoring game, I like the home team to put enough on the board to cover the double digits.

5* No Brainer on New Orleans Hornets +3

This is a tough scheduling spot for Atlanta. They are in the dreaded position of playing their fourth game in five nights, playing back-to-back against Cleveland and Indiana, having a night off, then playing in Houston last night on New Year's Eve. They didn't look good against the Rockets, getting beat down by a superior team.

Obviously New Orleans isn't a good team as they clock in at 7-23 on the year, while Atlanta is 19-10, but the Hornets do have two wins in their last three games and scored 97 or above in each. Since Atlanta has given up 100 or more in three of their last four, I think the Hornets are going to put enough points on the board to pick up the win here on New Year's Day.

The public is going to look at this matchup and see the Hawks won by 22 down in New Orleans last year, but this team has improved and will look to that defeat as some motivation here today. The Hornets start fresh in 2013 and pick up the win over a Hawks team that is overvalued after winning four straight before last night.

5* NBA Total No Brainer on Hawks/Rockets OVER 206.5

The way these two teams are playing right now the OVER makes a lot of sense to me. The Rockets and Hawks met way back on 11/2 in Atlanta and Houston won that game 109-102, so they've already played a high scoring game once this season.

Houston has been an OVER lover's dream lately. Only once in their last six games have either the Rockets or their opponent failed to reach 120 points in a game. It's no surprise that every one of those games went over the total. The only game that failed to reach that mark was Minnesota on 12/26 which was a letdown spot after a big win in Chicago.

The Hawks have been putting up some points too. Atlanta has gone OVER in three straight games and has eclipsed the 100 point barrier in each, they also have allowed 100 points in two of those three games.

Both of these teams like to shoot the 3-ball and both are better at hitting the outside shot than they are at defending it. A lot of factors pointing towards the OVER tonight so I'll ride it.

3* NBA Total Dominator on Clippers/Jazz OVER 195.5

These two teams played a 116-114 game on Friday night and I expect there to be a lot of scoring again on Sunday. In fact, if you look at the previous game the two played back on 12/3 that final was 105-104 as well, but last year the Jazz and the Clippers scoring 201 and 212 in their final two meetings. When these two franchises have squared off recently, a lot of points have been put up.

The Clippers have been putting up a lot of points recently, reaching the 100 point barrier in four straight games. They are averaging 104.1 ppg at home this season while the Jazz are giving up 102 ppg on the road. Utah hasn't given up less than 90 points since back on 12/5, a span of 11 games so with LA's prolific offense I don't see them having much trouble reaching the 100 point barrier.

The Jazz are 63-36 for the OVER on the road after scoring 110 points or more in their previous game and 52-34 OVER when the total is between 190 and 200 the past three years.

3* False Favorite on Boston Celtics +3.5

I love this matchup with the gritty veterans from Boston taking on the up and comers in the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors have been putting up a lot of points lately, scoring 94 or more in six straight games but their last two victories have come with only 94 and 96 points, so they are slowing down a little bit.

Boston is coming off a disappointing loss to the Clippers in which they were blown out of the water, but this group should rebound for the short road trip to Golden State. The Celtics are 23-7 ATS on the road after an embarrassing road loss in which they scored less than 80 points since 1996.

The Warriors offense has been explosive, but their defense not so much. Boston is shooting at a high rate from the floor at 46.6% which isn't a good matchup for the Warriors who are just 18-32 ATS against teams who make 46% of their shots or higher from the floor the last three years.

5* No Limit Play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4

The Thunder were the hottest team in the NBA up until losing at Minnesota and at Miami in back-to-back games, then on Thursday night trailed most of the game to the Dallas Mavericks. This has setup the rare situation for OKC this season in which they have lost three straight games for their backers at the pay window. I expect that trend to end here tonight against the Houston Rockets.

The Rockets on the other hand had won five in a row before dropping last night's contest to the San Antonio Spurs, but they still managed to cover giving them six straight at the pay window. This has caused them to be a little over-valued tonight against a team they can't match up with.



The Thunder played Houston earlier this year and put up 120 points on them, which is no surprise since OKC is averaging 105 ppg. The Rockets can score the rock too, but they give up 102.5 ppg compared to the 96.8 ppg the Thunder allow. Coming off a high tempo game against the in-state rival San Antonio Spurs, I just can't see them having enough in the tank to keep it close against Oklahoma City.

The Thunder on the other hand should be out to get back on track and pick up the easy win in Houston Saturday.

4* NBA SMASH on Jazz +3
LA's winning streak is in jeopardy tonight as it goes up against one of the best home teams in the league. The Jazz are 9-3 at home this season. They went 25-8 at home last season. The Clippers have managed to win their last two in Utah, but those wins came by a total of three points. The Jazz are 29-4 at home versus the Clippers since 1996.

In terms of the point spread, we find that the home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. We also find that the Clippers are 5-17 ATS in the last 22 meetings and 5-16 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Utah.

The Jazz take pride in their home-court dominance so the fact they are coming off a double-digit loss at home can't be sitting well. The Jazz have responded following such defeats and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. They are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Bet Utah.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Rockets/Spurs Under 214
The Rockets and Spurs combined for 260 points the last time they met. However, they hadn't combined to score more than 207 points in any of the previous five matchups. With this in mind, I'll gladly take the Under.

The Spurs have finished under the total in six of their last eight games, and the Rockets have played to the under in five of their last eight. The Spurs have come in under the number in four of their last five at home, and the Rockets have finished below the number in four of their last five on the road.

Looking back even further into the history of this matchup, we find that the Under is 29-14 in the last 43 meetings and 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in San Antonio.

When these two met Dec. 10, they combined for 30 three-point makes that totaled 90 points. They only average a total of 19 three-point makes so we should see 33 less points scored if these teams hit their averages. Plus, we must factor in that the previous meeting went into OT and that 20 points were scored in the extra frame. With this in mind, we should see right around 207 total points scored in this one. Bet the Under.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Nuggets -2
Here we have two teams headed in opposite directions, and I won't hesitate to take the one on the upswing.

The Mavs have lost seven of eight while the Nuggets have won six of nine. Denver has gone 7-2 ATS in these games.

This is a game the Nuggets had circled heading into the season as they lost last season's last three meetings with the Mavs by double digits. These defeats should fuel a very motivated performance from Denver.

The Nuggets have been a terrific investment on the road where they are on a 60-41 ATS run. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Dallas, and the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

The Nuggets have a big edge on the boards. They average 56 rebounds per game while the Mavs average just 49. It is also significant that Dallas gives up an average of 55 boards per game. That's because the Nuggets are on a 66-42 ATS run versus poor rebounding teams that are outrebounded by 3.0 or more boards per game.

In addition, the Mavs are on a 10-25 ATS slide versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game. Take Denver.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Celtics +8.5
The Clippers are being overvalued because they have won 14 in a row. Don't think for a second that this experienced Boston squad isn't capable of giving them all they want and more.

Boston has been a terrific investment when catching points on the road under coach Doc Rivers. It is 126-98 ATS as a road underdog under his watch. It is also 46-30 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points under Rivers and has lost these games by only 5.7 points on average.

As a 5-point dog in last season's meeting in LA, the Celtics took down the Clippers 94-85. The underdog has been a golden investment in this series as it is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet Boston.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Charlotte Bobcats +10.5
Off yesterday's big statement win over the Thunder, expect the Heat to suffer a letdown.

Miami has been far from invincible on the road where it is just 5-4 and has only one win of more than 10 points. One of its road defeats came to the lowly Washington Wizards so Miami can certainly be had here.

The Bobcats have lost 15 in a row, but they have been competitive at home during this stretch. Each of their last three and six of seven home losses during this span have come by less than 10 points. Two of these were against the Clippers and Knicks so they have shown they can take good teams right down to the wire.

The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing home record. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Bet the Bobcats.

3* NBA SMASH on OKC Thunder +3
Motivated by a loss at Minnesota in its last game, and especially motivated by four consecutive losses to the Heat in last season's NBA Finals, Oklahoma City will want this game just a little bit more.

History is pretty clear on which side is the right one in this situation. Consider that underdogs that have won five or six of their last seven games, provided they have won 75.0 percent or more of their games on the season and are matched up against a team that has won 60.0 to 75.0 percent of its games, are 100-54 ATS since 1996. The teams fitting into this scenario were underdogs of 3.7 points on average but lost by only 1.3 points on average.

The Thunder have been money in the bank in road games following an upset loss on the road. They are a perfect 8-0 ATS in these spots the last three seasons, winning by an average of 8.0 points. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. Take the Thunder.

5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Nets Under 188.5
The earliest Christmas day game has gone under the total every year going back to 2004. Apparently, these guys don't like getting up early. I expect this trend to continue.

The last meeting between these teams went under as just 178 total points were scored. This one has the potential to be even lower scoring. The Celtics have allowed the Nets to score 102 and 95 points, respectively, in each of the season's first two meetings. The defensive effort in those games can't be sitting well with a Boston squad that has prided itself on defense under the watch of Doc Rivers. I'm expecting a much better defensive showing from the C's this time around.

The Nets, which rank sixth in the NBA with 93.9 points allowed per game, have been getting it done on the defensive end all season. I expect no different in this one.

The Nets have finished under the total in each of their last four games. Also, the under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two.

Boston has gone over the total in its last three but is 14-4 under in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons. We have seen only 178.4 total points scored on average in this situation. Take the Under.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets -5.5
The 76ers are struggling to win on the road. They have dropped each of their last five road games with the last four road defeats coming by seven points or more. Consequently, they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Since the beginning of last season, Philly is 1-9 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). It has lost these contests by an average score of 96.4 to 84.5. It is also 9-19 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 97.8 to 90.0.

The Nets will be the fresher team as they have had three full days to gear up. They should also be the hungrier team as they look to snap a three-game skid in the series. The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 3 days' rest or more. Bet the Nets.

4* NBA SMASH on Jazz +9.5
Based on the line, oddsmakers are begging for the money to come in on the Heat following three consecutive double-digit wins. We won't take the bait. The Jazz are a quality basketball team that has performed well against good opponents. They played the Clippers to a 1-point game and have a win against the Spurs. They certainly have what it takes to Miami all it wants and more, especially since the Heat will have a hard time not looking ahead to their Christmas showdown with Oklahoma City. The Heat are a poor 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams that have a winning record.

The underdog is on a 9-2 ATS run in this series. Plus, Utah has won 3 of the last 4 meetings, including the most recent matchup in Miami. Bet the Jazz.

3* NBA SMASH on Wizards pk
The Wizards will be the hungrier team tonight after losing 100-68 in Detroit last night. Consider that Washington is 6-2-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall, 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games following a SU loss, 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Wizards are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest.

The Pistons are a miserable 2-13 on the road this season. They are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a losing record, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. They are also a pathetic 7-28 ATS in their last 35 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Washington has its revenge tonight.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Hawks -3
Off last night's big upset win in New York, expect the Bulls to suffer a letdown in Atlanta tonight. The Hawks, meanwhile, will be extremely motivated after laying an egg in Philadelphia last night. They will be further fueled by the 21-point beat down the Bulls handed them in the most recent meeting.

One thing you haven't wanted to make a habit of is backing the Bulls following a win. That's because they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.

The Hawks have been a terrific investment in games oddsmakers expect to be close. They are an impressive 32-18 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. It is also worth noting that they are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games when playing without a day of rest. Take Atlanta.

3* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Bobcats +10.5
It will be tough for the Warriors to cover this big number considering the level of fatigue that has to be setting in. This will be Golden State's third game in four days and its sixth in 10 days. Plus, the Warriors have a big showdown with the Lakers tomorrow night. They'll be more concerned with that game than a Charlotte squad they defeated by eight points on the road earlier this month.

Consider that plays against favorites of 10 or more points in the first half of the season, provided they are a tired team that is playing six or more games in 10 days, are 45-18 ATS the last five seasons. These teams have been favored by 12.1 points on average but have won by just 7.7 points on average.

Charlotte will be hungry tonight following a poor performance at Phoenix in its last game. Plus, it will be out to avenge the aforementioned loss to the Warriors. I'll gladly grab the points here considering the Bobcats have won or lost by eight points or less in each of the past nine meetings with the Warriors. That's a 9-0 trend in our favor. Bet the Bobcats.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5
Off last night's satisfying win in Atlanta, I expect the Thunder to look right past a Minnesota team they have defeated 12 straight times and ahead to their Christmas matchup with the Miami Heat.

While Oklahoma City has had Minnesota's number, many of these matchups have been close. As a result, the Thunder are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota. OKC has won by just 3.67 points on average in its last 6 visits to Minnesota so the value clearly lies with the T-Wolves catching more than that.

The Timberwolves lost by 11 at Miami in their last game but are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are also 15-4 ATS versus good teams like OKC that outscore their opponents by 3.0 points or more per game over the last 2 seasons. They have lost to these teams by only 0.7 points on average. Take the T-Wolves.

3* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -3.5
The Jazz won last night in Brooklyn, but I won't hesitate to go against them here as they haven't won consecutive road games all season. They are just 5-10 away from home on the year. It is also worth noting that Utah is 0-8 ATS all-time under coach Tyrone Corbin in road games following a road win. It has lost by an average score of 102.1 to 93.4 in these contests.

The home team has clearly had the advantage in this series. It has won 8 of the last 10 meetings and each of these 8 wins have come by 5 points or more. The Pacers are a reliable 7-3 at home on the season.

Indiana went down last night in Milwaukee, but it is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a loss. Take the Pacers.

3* NBA SMASH on Minnesota Timberwolves +9
The T-Wolves lost in Orlando yesterday but had won four in a row and six of seven prior to the defeat.

Miami won its most recent game by 30 against the Wizards but is just 3-3 over its last six contests.

Rick Adelman has really changed the complexion of things in Minnesota as the Timberwolves have been a lot more competitive under his watch. Consider that they are 15-3 ATS under Adelman when up against good teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 3.0 points or more per game. The Wolves have lost to these teams by just .1 points on average.

Minnesota is also 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points under Adelman and has lost by an average of just .3 points in these games. Take the T-Wolves.

3* TOTAL DOMINATOR on the Rockets/Raptors UNDER 198.5

This line is a little inflated due to the high number of points Houston games have been played towards this year, but the last two times out Houston gave up 93 & 89 points while scoring 101 or less.



Toronto on the other hand has gone UNDER in four straight games by playing decent defense and not putting points on the board offensively. They have scored 100 or fewer in six straight games while have allowed 94 or less in their last three.



I think the players in the NBA struggle a little more with the early start times. When you are used to playing late at night each game and have to get started at Noon, it's going to take a little while to shake off the cobwebs. Both these teams struggle to do that on Sunday and it leads to a low scoring game for us.

5* NBA NO DOUBT ROUT OF THE MONTH on the Chicago Bulls -3.5

Brooklyn played a tough game last night against the Pistons, playing a few extra frames and now they have to travel to Chicago to take on a Bulls team with two days rest. Chicago is playing good basketball right now winning four of five and seven of their last nine. Brooklyn on the other hand has been struggling with five losses in their last seven games. The Nets should be a tired team as they not only come off double overtime, but they are also playing their fourth game in five nights. You don't see this kind of situation coming often, and it's a big reason I would lay the wood on the Bulls Saturday night. Add in the fact that Chicago lost at home last February to the Nets and you have a Bulls team that will be hungry to beat a tired team that isn't playing well. All signs point to a blowout.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Cavs +3
Expect Milwaukee to get caught looking ahead to tomorrow's game. It will be more worried about the Clippers than a Cleveland team it has defeated 8 straight times.

While the Bucks will be looking ahead, the Cavs will be out for some serious revenge. They came close to ending the skid with a 3-point loss at Milwaukee Nov. 3 so they will enter this game with a ton of confidence and motivation.

The Bucks have struggled on the road of late. They are just 1-3 in their last four and 2-5 in their last 7 road games. It is also significant that they enter off a lopsided victory since teams that do tend to be overvalued. Fading the Bucks following a win of more than 10 points has produced a 9-1 ATS record in the last 10 instances. Cash in with the Cavs.

5* NBA Total of the Week on Bobcats/Hawks Over 194
Oddsmakers are begging for the money to roll in on the under but we won't oblige them. The Bobcats and Hawks both finished under the number in their games last night with 194 and 166 total points scored, respectively. Also, these two have been under this number in each of the season's previous two meetings with 192 and 185 total points scored, respectively. Yet, the books have come in with a total higher than we've seen these two put up this season? They clearly think this is going to be a high-scoring game, and I agree fully.

When teams play the second game of a back-to-back, it is typically the defense that suffers. It is always easier to find energy when trying to score than it is at the defensive end. That's a big reason why the over is 5-1 in the Bobcats' last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

Prior to this season's two meetings, we had seen the Bobcats and the Hawks combine to score more than 194 points in three straight games. It is also worth noting that the over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Plus, the over is 5-1 in the Hawks' last 6 home games. Bet the Over.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Hornets +13.5
The Hornets got caught looking ahead last night as they were upset at home by the Wizards. This is the game they really want as they have been crushed by the Thunder twice already this season, and last night's poor performance assures us they will be even more focused.

Consider that underdogs of 10 or more points that have a winning percentage of .250 to .400 that check into a contest off an upset loss are 58-28 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this system have lost by just 10.7 points on average. It is also worth noting that this system is 19-6 ATS the last 5 seasons and 8-2 ATS the last 3 seasons.

In addition, New Orleans is on an impressive 21-10 ATS run when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent. It has lost these games on average but only by 4.0 points.

The Hornets played last night but are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest. It is also worth noting that the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Hornets have lost by only 10 and 8 points, respectively in their last 2 visits to OKC. Take the Hornets as they will be the hungrier team tonight.

4* NBA SMASH on Bobcats +8
The Clippers are being overvalued on the road tonight because they have won 7 straight games and are going up against an opponent that has lost 8 straight. Not only is this a letdown spot following last night's big national TV win over the Bulls, but it is also an extremely fatigued spot for the Clippers.

This will be L.A.'s 4th game in 5 days, and it will already be looking ahead to the 2-day break it gets following this contest. Charlotte has had a day off in between each of its last 2 games and has been at home so it hasn't had to travel. It should definitely be the fresher side tonight.

The Clippers covered by a slim margin last night but are still just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Bet the Bobcats.

3* NBA SMASH on Bulls +3.5
The Bulls are playing their best basketball of the season. They have won three in a row and five of six, and they will be very focused tonight as they look to avenge last month's embarrassing 21-point loss in LA.

Since coach Thibodeau took over, Chicago is an awesome 16-5 ATS in home games when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. They have won by an average score of 95.1 to 86.3 in these games.

If you're going to pick a night to fade the Clippers, Tuesday has got to be the night. Consider that LA is just 1-10 ATS when playing on Tuesday evening the last three seasons.

The Clippers have struggled on the road lately. They are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games with the win coming by just one points. It is also worth noting that the Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. Bet the Bulls.

3* NBA SMASH on Rockets +5.5
Off back-to-back defeats, the Rockets will show up ready to play tonight, especially since one of these defeats was an embarrassing 114-92 loss at San Antonio. Rest assured, the Rockets will put up a much better fight against the Spurs at home.

Houston has won seven of its last nine at home and one of the two losses came by only three points to the defending NBA champion Miami Heat. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Houston has also had a lot of success at home against the Spurs. The Rockets have won their last three at home in the series and have won or lost by three points or less in eight of the past 10 home meetings.

James Harden could miss this game with an ankle injury, but I like the Rockets here regardless. Bet Houston.

3* NBA SMASH on Suns -4
After yesterday's poor showing against the Clippers, the Suns won't be able to wait to get back on the floor for a chance to wash that taste out of their mouths. They won't be able to wait for a piece of the Magic either. Orlando has won the last four in this series, and Phoenix will be hungry to bring that streak to an end.

It is significant that the Magic are a soft 3-7 on the road. That's because the Suns, who have won 5 of 8 at home, are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games versus a team that has a losing road record. It is also significant that the Magic are just 7-12 (36.8%) on the season. That's because the Suns are 20-8 ATS in home games against teams with a winning percentage of .250 to .400 under coach Gentry. They have whipped up on these foes by an average score of 112.8 to 101.1.

The favorite has been the way to go in this series. It is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meeting and has won these by an average of 15.3 points. Look for this trend to continue.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Nets -6
Motivated by back-to-back losses to the Heat and Thunder and further fueled by a loss at Golden State in the season's first meetings, I expect this rested Brooklyn squad to roll tonight.

The Nets are a terrific 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 home games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

Prior to losing a close one at home to Oklahoma City, the Nets had won six straight at home by an average of 9.3 points. All of these wins came by more than six points except one. Brooklyn beat the Celtics, Clippers and Knicks during this stretch so it can certainly lay a thumping on the Warriors.

The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the Warriors are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 road meetings in this series. It is also worth noting that the favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Bet the Nets.

3* NBA SMASH on Nuggets +1.5
The Nuggets have lost four of their last five, but three of those losses came by four points or fewer. Motivated by those narrow defeats, I expect Denver to take out its frustrations on an Indiana team it has owned.

The Nuggets have won two in a row and 12 of their last 15 against the Pacers. They are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings and 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Indiana.

Denver has been a strong play on the road where it is 56-38 ATS over the last 3 seasons. It is 44-27 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and 40-24 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are even 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

The Pacers check in off back-to-back wins and covers but are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. They are also 10-26 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Take Denver.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Heat -7
Motivated by a loss to lowly Washington and further fueled by an embarrassing 20-point loss at New York in the season's first meeting, expect the Heat to handle their business tonight.

The home team has dominated the series of late, covering the spread in five of the last six meetings. Plus, the Heat have owned the Knicks in Miami. The Heat have won five straight at home in the series with each of these coming by at least 10 points, and they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against the Knicks.

Miami is a perfect 8-0 at home where it is winning by an average of 12.3 points this season. Dating back to last season, it is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 home games. The Knicks, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.

The Heat should also be the fresher team as they have had a day to rest and prepare while the Knicks were taken to the brink by Charlotte last night. The Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on a days' rest. Take Miami.

3* NBA SMASH on Jazz -8
Off three consecutive losses, look for Utah to take out its frustrations on an Orlando team it has owned.

The Jazz have won three straight against the Magic by double digits. They have also won their last three at home in the series by nine points or more. Overall, the Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Magic.

This is a tough scheduling spot for Orlando, which will be playing its third road game in four nights. The Jazz have had a day of rest following each of their last two games and should be the fresher side as a result.

Utah is 6-1 at home and 5-2 ATS in these games. Take the Jazz as they continue their dominance of the Magic.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Bobcats +8
Motivated by four consecutive defeats and out for revenge for blowout losses to the Knicks in the last two meetings, I'm expecting an inspired performance from the Bobcats tonight.

While this is a bounce-back spot and a revenge spot for the Bobcats, it's a look ahead spot for the Knicks who take on the Miami Heat tomorrow night. New York will be much more concerned with that game and won't give the Bobcats its full attention as a result.

The Knicks have lost three of their last four on the road, and I expect them to have a tough time pulling this one out tonight. Bet the Bobcats.

3* NBA SMASH on Jazz +2
The Jazz will be happy to be back home where they are 6-0 on the season. I expect their home-court dominance to continue against an L.A. squad that has lost its last three on the road both SU and ATS.

The Jazz have owned the Clippers at home over the years. In fact, they are 29-3 SU and 21-10-1 ATS dating back to 1996. Zooming in a few years, we find that Utah is on a 14-3 ATS run at home in the series.

As if the two-game skid the Jazz bring into this game isn't enough motivation, they will be further fueled by losses in their last two meetings with the Clippers. Take the Jazz at home in this highly motivated spot.

3* NBA SMASH on Nuggets -10
Denver has struggled on the road but it has been lights out at home where it has won four of five this season and eight straight against the Raptors, who are just 1-9 on the road this season. The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Denver.

It is also significant that Toronto enters off a win since it is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a victory. Plus, the Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

Each of Denver last five home wins against the Raptors have come by at least 15 points. Bet the Nuggets.

3* NBA SMASH on Hornets +4.5
Off back-to-back defeats, including an embarrassing 100-79 loss to the Thunder in their last game, I expect the Hornets to put forth a good showing tonight against a team they have owned.

The Hornets have won 11 of the last 13 meetings, and they'll be out for some revenge here after losing the season's first meeting by four points in Milwaukee. New Orleans is 21-10 ATS when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons.

It is also significant that Milwaukee enters off a win and cover. The Bucks are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. The Hornets, meanwhile, are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss. Bet the Hornets.

3* NBA SMASH on Hornets +8.5
Off a double-digit loss in their last game, out for revenge for an earlier loss to Oklahoma City and having had 2 days to prepare, we find the Hornets in a great spot here.

The Hornets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are on a 21-9 ATS run when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. They are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on 2 days' rest.

It is also worth noting that the Hornets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.

New Orleans has been a terrific underdog investment in recent years. It is 64-46 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and 28-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Take the Hornets.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +4.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by a pair of defeats to Brooklyn this month, the Magic will show up in a big way tonight. They are 2-2 on their season-high five-game homestand, and they

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +8
The Magic have played well at home where they are 4-3 this season. They could just as easily be 5-2 as they fell to Boston in overtime in their last game.

Orlando will be the fresher team tonight as it has had two days' rest. The Spurs have only had a days' rest, and they will be much more interested in tomorrow night's game against the Miami Heat, an opponent they feel is a better measuring stick than the Magic.

I like Orlando catching big points at home here regardless, but it only helps our cause if Tim Duncan doesn't see much of the floor tonight.

Coach Popovich said he plans to give Duncan some breaks. "There'll be times this year when we'll sit him back-to-backs. Win or lose, he's not going to play the minutes he played (Sunday)," Popovich said.

The Magic have struggled in Orlando where they have lost three of four. The lone win came by only two points in overtime. Take the Magic.

3* NBA SMASH on Raptors +5.5
The Raptors have been a phenomenal investment in bounce-back spots. In fact, they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. They are on a 22-9 ATS run after 2 or more consecutive losses and a 20-6 ATS run in road games after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less.

While this is a bounce-back spot for the Raptors, this is a sandwich game for Houston. The Rockets are coming off a blowout win over the Knicks, and they take on the the Thunder tomorrow night.

The Raptors have been playing good basketball. Two of their last three games were decided by a single point, and the other was decided in double-OT. The Raptors have also played well versus Houston lately. They won the most recent meeting 116-98 and only lost by 3 the last time they visited the Rockets. The Raptors are 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Jazz -3.5
Back home and motivated following Saturday's loss at Sacramento, and further fueled by a 20-point loss at Denver in the season's first meeting, expect the Jazz to take care of business tonight.

The Jazz have long been a strong home team, and they have been dominant at home this season. They are 5-0 at home and have won these games by an average of 10.8 points.

The home team has ruled this series lately. It has won 4 of the last 5 meetings with the 4 wins coming by an average of 15 points. The Jazz won 121-102 the last time they host the Nuggets.

The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, and the favorite is 33-16-3 ATS in the last 52 meetings. Lay the number.

3* NBA SMASH on Magic +5.5
The Celtics are being overvalued on the road following their big win over the Thunder. Boston has been a poor investment recently when checking in off a win at 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games in the situation. The Celtics are 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games overall.

Boston has struggled on the road where it is 3-3 and has only 1 win by more than 5.5 points - a 6-point win in Chicago. It defeated the Wizards and Bucks by 3 and 4 points, respectively and was blown out by the Pistons, a team Orlando has defeated twice this season.

Going back to the beginning of last season, The Celtics are just 1-9 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. They have lost by an average score of 95.8 to 88.4 in these games. Take the points.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +4.5
Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats, and further fueled by three consecutive losses to the Thunder, expect the Celtics to leave it all on the floor this evening. Doing so will give them an excellent chance to win this game outright.

The Thunder are 3-1 on the road but are fortunate to be that good as three of these contests have been decided by six points or less and two by two points. The Celtics are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage that's greater than .600.

Recent trends are good, but long-term trends are better, especially with a team like Boston that has had the same nucleus for a while. Consider that the Celtics are 164-138 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses under coach Doc Rivers and 152-125 ATS as an underdog under him. Bet Boston.