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NBA Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
04-06-12	Oklahoma City Thunder -155 v. Indiana Pacers	Top	98-103	Loss	-155	10 h 33 m	Show
5* NBA Friday Night Feast on Thunder -155 Motivated by losing consecutive games for just the 2nd time all season, expect the Thunder to bounce back strong tonight. Following back-to-back defeats on Jan. 2-3, the Thunder rebounded with a 15-point win over Houston. I expect them to take care of business again versus an Indiana squad they have defeated by 24 and 4 in the last 2 meetings. I like the Thunder on the point spread but love them on the money line at this price. OKC is 24-11 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 104.8 to 99.4 in this situation. It is also 16-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 102.3 to 95.4 in this situation. Indiana is 11-22 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons, 6-20 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons and 1-8 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season. The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 39-17-1 ATS in their last 57 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or fewer. We'll take the Thunder.
04-05-12	Washington Wizards +7.5 v. Detroit Pistons	Top	94-99	Win	100	9 h 2 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Wizards +7.5 Fueled by 3 consecutive defeats and a 2-point home loss to Detroit on Mar. 26, expect the Wizards to give the Pistons a game tonight. Washington blew a 13-point lead in the Mar. 26 meeting and was defeated on a Rodney Stuckey 20-foot jumper with 0.2 seconds remaining. That can't be sitting well with the Wizards, who won 98-77 in Detroit in the season's first meeting. In fact, Washington has either won or lost by fewer than tonight's posted spread in 3 straight and 4 of the last 5 meetings. Washington's defense hasn't been very good in its last 2 games, but recent history says it will do something about that tonight. The Wiz are 13-3 ATS after 2 straight games allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher over the last 3 seasons. The Wizards are only losing these games by an average of 0.1 points. It is also important to note that the Pistons are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.
04-04-12	Memphis Grizzlies v. Dallas Mavericks -6		85-95	Win	100	10 h 43 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Mavericks -6 Motivated by Monday's ugly 19-point home loss to the Clippers, expect the defending NBA champs to bounce back strong versus a fatigued Memphis squad playing its 3rd game in as many days. The fact Dallas is coming off an embarrassing loss and lost in Memphis by 11 on Feb. 29 sets up a strong system. Consider that plays on any team out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent of 10 points or more, provided the "play on" team is also coming off an upset loss by 15 points or more, are 27-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Grizzlies are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Mavericks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the Mavs.
04-04-12	Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards +6	Top	109-96	Loss	-110	8 h 14 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Wizards +6 Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by defeats in each of the season's first 2 meetings with Indiana, expect the Wizards to give the Pacers all they want and more here. Indiana just played last night and used a lot of energy while mounting a late comeback. Riding high from than win, and with OKC on deck, I expect a bit of a letdown from the Pacers. The Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games when playing without a day of rest, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Wizards, meanwhile, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. It is also worth noting that the home team is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the Pacers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Washington. Take the points.
04-03-12	Golden State Warriors +7.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies	Top	94-98	Win	100	11 h 48 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors +7.5 Hungry to end a 5-game skid and to avoid being swept by Memphis, expect the Warriors to play some inspired ball tonight. Off last night's upset win over the West-best Thunder, and with games against defending champion Dallas and reigning Eastern Conference champion Miami up next, I'm expecting a letdown from the Grizzlies here. The losses have started to pile up for the Warriors, but only one defeat during their current losing streak has come by more than 8 points. It is also worth noting that Golden State is 9-0 ATS all-time under coach Jackson in road games following 2 or more consecutive losses. The Warriors have actually won by an average score of 102.3 to 100.6 in this situation. In addition, the Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take Golden State.
04-02-12	Memphis Grizzlies +8 v. Oklahoma City Thunder	Top	94-88	Win	100	11 h 34 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Grizzlies +8 This is a sandwich game for the Thunder, who are coming off a big win over Chicago and have a big game in Miami up next. Meanwhile, this is a highly motivated spot for the Grizzlies, who have lost each of the season's first three meetings with OKC. Memphis is a phenomenal 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent in which it allowed its foe to score 100 points or more. Memphis has only lost by an average of 1.1 points in this situation. The Grizzlies are also on a 52-34 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 11-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies have won by an average score of 98.6 to 95.6 in this situation. It is also worth noting that plays against home favorites in the second game of a back-to-back in April are 165-105 (61.1%) since 1996. These teams have been favored by 6.7 points on average but have only won by an average of 3.7. This system is 21-10 (67.7% the last 3 seasons. The Thunder are also 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Southwest division. Take the points.
04-01-12	Denver Nuggets v. Orlando Magic -5.5	Top	104-101	Loss	-102	11 h 53 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET Blowout on Magic -5.5 Checking in off back-to-back defeats, the Magic will be hungry to run up the score on the Nuggets this evening. The Magic are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Prior to Friday's home loss to Dallas, Orlando had won 6 of its last 7 at home with those 6 wins coming by an average of 12.3 points. Its home dominance of Denver also can't be ignored. The Magic have won 13 of their last 14 at home in the series with those 13 wins coming by an average of 11.2 points. It also doesn't bode well for Denver that it checks in off a SU win and cover. The Nuggets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Those 7 defeats have come by an average of 10.0 points. We'll lay the points with the Magic as all signs point to a double-digit win.
03-31-12	Utah Jazz +6 v. Los Angeles Clippers	Top	96-105	Loss	-110	16 h 35 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Jazz +6 Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 2-point loss to the Clippers last month, expect the Jazz to give L.A. all it wants and more tonight. Both of these teams played last night and recent history favors the Jazz in this back-to-back spot. In fact, they Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest while the Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a days' rest. The Clippers have not proven they can be trusted laying points. They are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Clippers are also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win while the Jazz are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Utah has played better ball than the Clippers this month and shouldn't be catching this many points. Take the Jazz.
03-30-12	New York Knicks v. Atlanta Hawks -3	Top	90-100	Win	100	14 h 31 m	Show
5* NBA Friday Night Feast on Hawks -3 Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by an embarrassing 17-point loss in New York last month, expect the Hawks to bounce back strong this evening. The road hasn't been too kind to the Knicks. They are 9-15 when playing away from Madison Square Garden this season and enter tonight's contest with 7 losses in their last 9 road contests. Those 7 road defeats have come by an average of 9.7 points and all of them have come by at least 4 points. The Hawks are a rock solid 16-8 at home on the season and check in with 6 wins in their last 8 home contests. Those 6 wins, one of which was a 7-point victory against the Thunder, have come by an average of 7.0 points. The banged-up Knicks caught Orlando napping last game, but they won't take the Hawks by surprise here. The Knicks are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, and I expect their road struggles to continue.
03-29-12	Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat -8	Top	85-106	Win	100	12 h 30 m	Show
5* NBA on TNT BEST BET on Heat -8 Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats and with 2 days' rest on their side, expect the Heat to show no mercy when they take on the team that beat them in last year's NBA Finals. Miami won by 11 in Dallas on Christmas and it will be poised to send another message here. Right away you have to like the fact that plays on home favorites off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS the last 5 seasons. I also like the fact the Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Mavs have struggled winning just 2 of their last 10 away from home and going 3-7 ATS in those games. They are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing with only 1 day of rest. Expect Dallas' road struggles to continue against a Miami squad that is 20-2 at home and has won those games by an average of 11.9 points. It is also worth noting that the Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games while the Mavericks are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 Thursday games. With these 6 ATS trends and a strong system on our side, I'll grab the Heat in this highly motivated spot.
03-28-12	Denver Nuggets v. Toronto Raptors +4	Top	96-105	Win	100	8 h 29 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Month on Raptors +4 Motivated by back-to-back losses to Chicago and Orlando and further fueled by a 9-game losing streak to the Nuggets, expect the Raptors to take care of business at home tonight. Toronto has quietly been playing some very good basketball. Prior to a disappointing performance against Orlando last game, it had defeated the Knicks by 17 and played the Bulls to a 1-point game on the road. Denver is coming off a big win over the Bulls, which spells letdown for it tonight. Plus, the Nuggets really haven't been playing that well. They haven't won consecutive games since early this month, and, prior to beating Chicago, lost by 19 and 17 points at Utah and Minnesota. The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 1 day of rest. The Raptors, meanwhile, are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 day of rest, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Western Conference, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. Also, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Nuggets are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 and I'm not hesitating to fade them tonight. Take Toronto and best of luck.
03-27-12	Atlanta Hawks v. Milwaukee Bucks -1.5	Top	101-108	Win	100	11 h 52 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Bucks -1.5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats to Indiana and New York as well as a pair of losses to Atlanta in the season's first two meetings, expect the Bucks to bounce back strong tonight. Milwaukee, which trails NY by 2.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East, knows it must take care of business at home the rest of the way out. The Bucks get 7 of their next 9 at home. This is also a look ahead spot for Atlanta, which has a big home game against the Bulls tomorrow night. The Bucks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. It is also worth noting that the favorite is 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Under coach Drew, Atlanta is just 14-28 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins. It is losing by an average of 3.0 points in this situation. The Bucks, meanwhile, are 30-15 ATS in home games under coach Skiles after 2 or more consecutive losses. Milwaukee has won by an average of 5.6 points in this situation. Bet the Bucks.
03-26-12	Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Bobcats +7	Top	102-95	Push	0	9 h 20 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Bobcats +7 The Bobcats will be lacking no motivation here following 3 consecutive defeats. Plus, this is a bad spot for Boston, which will be playing the second game of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days. The Celtics are just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games when playing without a day of rest. They are also 1-8 ATS in road games when playing the second game of a back-to-back this season. They have lost these games by an average score of 93.7 to 81.1. The Celtics have also been a poor investment on the road at 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games. They are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bobcats likely won't have to come up with a bunch of turnovers to cover this number either. Consider that Boston is 0-10 ATS in road games in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game. The Celtics have lost to these teams by an average score of 93.7 to 84.1. The underdog is 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Charlotte won 2 of those 4 straight up. We'll bet the Bobcats.
03-25-12	Memphis Grizzlies +7 v. Los Angeles Lakers	Top	102-96	Win	100	15 h 25 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Grizzlies +7 Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, and losses in both of this season's prior matchups with the Lakers, expect Memphis to show well tonight. The Grizzlies played Saturday while the Lakers rested, but the Grizzlies are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 games when playing without a day of rest and the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing with 1 day of rest. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Grizzlies lost 116-111 at home to the Lakers in double OT on March 13 without stars Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay. With these two back in the lineup, Memphis should, at the very least, be able to take LA down to the wire again.
03-24-12	Dallas Mavericks +3.5 v. Houston Rockets	Top	101-99	Win	100	13 h 44 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Mavericks +3.5 Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats to the Lakers and Spurs, expect the defending NBA champs to take their frustrations out on a team they have owned. The Mavs have won 4 in a row and 7 of their last 9 against Houston. Dallas just played last night, but it is an impressive 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when its starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Mavericks are also 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog, 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Rockets are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Mavericks are 16-7 ATS in the last 23 meetings and 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Houston. We'll take the points.
03-23-12	New York Knicks v. Toronto Raptors +5.5	Top	79-96	Win	100	10 h 36 m	Show
5* NBA Friday Night Feast on Raptors +5.5 Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, including an embarrassing 19-point loss at New York Mar. 20, expect the Raptors to give the Knicks all they want and more tonight. Prior to that loss, Toronto had defeated the Knicks by 5 points in the season's first meeting and only lost by 3 points in the second meeting. In other words, the Raptors clearly have what it takes to get the "W" in this highly motivated spot. The Knicks have not shown that they can be trusted in the road chalk at 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite. Plus, the Raptors are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Lastly, the underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. We'll take the points.
03-21-12	Chicago Bulls v. Toronto Raptors +7.5	Top	94-82	Loss	-110	10 h 41 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Week on Raptors +7.5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by a 13-point loss in the season's first meeting, expect the Raptors to give the Bulls all they want and more tonight. Revenge has been a great angle to play with the Raptors, who are 13-4 ATS in home games when out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Raptors have actually won by an average score of 101.3 to 95.6 in this situation. The Raptors have been extremely undervalued against winning teams and Chicago couldn't be more overvalued here following an 85-59 win over Orlando without Derrick Rose on the floor. The Raptors are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog. It is also worth noting that the Bulls are just 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. We'll take the points.
03-20-12	Los Angeles Clippers v. Indiana Pacers -3.5	Top	89-102	Win	100	10 h 45 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Pacers -3.5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats and having had 2 days to prepare, expect the Pacers to take care of business tonight at home, where they are 13-6. The home team has had the edge in this series, winning each of the past 4 meetings by an average of 15.8 points. In fact, the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Pacers have won 2 straight and 11 of their last 14 at home in this series. In addition, the Clippers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games vs. Central division opponents and 0-7 ATS after playing 3 consecutive home games this season. We'll lay the points.
03-19-12	Dallas Mavericks v. Denver Nuggets -4		112-95	Loss	-105	12 h 47 m	Show
4* NBA on TNT SMASH on Nuggets -4 The Nuggets will be out for blood tonight as they look to avenge last month's two double-digit defeats to Dallas. Danilo Gallinari didn't play in either of those games, and I expect his presence to make a big difference for Denver in this one. Gallinari is averaging 18.0 points on 47.2 percent shooting in his last three games, a good sign that he's back to being the player he was before injury. The Nuggets defeated the Mavs 115-93 in Dallas in the lone game he's played in the series this season. The Mavs have really struggled on the road, where they have lost 7 in a row by an average of 9.4 points. We'll fade the Mavs on the road here.
03-19-12	Boston Celtics +1.5 v. Atlanta Hawks	Top	79-76	Win	100	9 h 37 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Celtics +1.5 Motivated by back-to-back poor performance against Sacramento and Denver, expect Boston to take care of business tonight. Boston has played a lot of games in not a lot of days but should benefit from having Sunday off while the Hawks were in action. Besides, road teams that have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, extremely tired team playing 9 or more games in 14 days, are 34-12 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Hawks are a lousy 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Atlantic division. Also, they are just 13-27 ATS all-time under coach Drew following 2 or more consecutive wins. They have lost by an average score of 96.2 to 92.9 in this situation. The Hawks are very banged up. They were to get past Washington and Cleveland without being at full strength, but I don't think they'll be able to get past the Celtics. Bet Boston.
03-18-12	Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5	Top	103-87	Loss	-110	8 h 52 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Cavs +2.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by an embarrassing 121-94 loss at Atlanta in the season's first meeting, expect the Cavs to take care of business this afternoon. Cleveland has had 3 full days to rest up and prepare for this game. Atlanta has only had one and will likely already be looking ahead to tomorrow's matchup with Boston. Cleveland has been a phenomenal small dog at 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. We'll take the points.
03-17-12	San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks -3		99-106	Win	100	14 h 50 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET on Mavs -3 This is a letdown spot for the Spurs, who check in off a big win over the Thunder last night. It will be very difficult for this veteran team to match the intensity they played with last night, and I believe a failure to do so will get them beat. Dallas is the reigning NBA champ, and it will be hungry for a statement win to show the NBA it is still a contender. The Mavs have quietly won 4 in a row and 8 of 10 at home. Their recent home dominance is significant because they are 18-3 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 6.3 points in these games. The Mavericks are also 31-14-2 ATS in their last 47 games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the Mavs.
03-16-12	Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers	Top	92-97	Win	100	13 h 12 m	Show
5* NBA Friday Night Feast on Timberwolves +8.5 This is a game the Timberwolves want badly after dropping the season's first 3 meetings with the Lakers. Motivated by those losses and a 6-point setback in Utah last night, expect the Wolves to give the Lakers a game. Minnesota is 18-8 ATS as an underdog this season, 14-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Timberwolves are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings road meetings in this series. The Lakers are 6-19 ATS in Friday night home games the last 3 seasons. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll take the T-Wolves in this highly motivated spot.
03-14-12	Los Angeles Lakers v. New Orleans Hornets +4.5	Top	107-101	Loss	-103	10 h 19 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hornets +4.5 This isn't a good spot for the Lakers. First of all, they are just 6-15-1 ATS in road games this season, losing these games by an average score of 97.1 to 92.6. Secondly, the Lakers just played a double-OT game in Memphis last night. They will be fatigued and typically struggle when that is the case. The Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Bobcats are coming off a loss to the NBA's worst team (Charlotte) so you can expect them to be very motivated this evening. The Hornets have home wins over Boston, Orlando and Dallas and have played San Antonio to a 2-point game at home. In other words, beating the Lakers outright is certainly in the cards. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. The Hornets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and the underdog is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Take the points.
03-13-12	Atlanta Hawks v. Denver Nuggets -5	Top	117-118	Loss	-110	11 h 28 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Nuggets -5 Motivated by a home loss to Memphis Sunday, expect the Nuggets to bounce back strong against a team they have defeated 3 consecutive times by an average of 15.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets have won 4 in a row at home against the Hawks with those wins coming by an average of 9.5 points. The Nuggets have dominated teams from the East, going 23-5 ATS in their last 28 games against them. They have especially dominated the Southeast division, going 10-1 ATS in home games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets haven't just won these games, they have won them by an average of 18.7 points. Bet Denver.
03-12-12	Minnesota Timberwolves +4 v. Phoenix Suns	Top	127-124	Win	100	13 h 47 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Timberwolves +4 The Timberwolves have lost back-to-back games, Ricky Rubio for the season and they lost in Phoenix by 9 points earlier this month. The Suns have been playing well, winning 4 of 5 since these two last met, and yet they are laying less points than they did the last time these two faced off. I smell a trap. The books obviously like Minnesota's chances tonight, and I have to agree. Rubio plays with flare at times and makes spectacular plays on occasion, but veteran Luke Ridnour is a better shooter and plays with intelligence. I don't see much of a drop off, if any. The T-wolves shot 1 of 13 from 3-point range in the previous meeting, and I don't see that happening again. We're talking about a team that averages 7 3-point makes per game. Minnesota is 19-9 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, 10-2 ATS in road games after playing a home game this season, 17-7 ATS as an underdog this season and 13-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Also, the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the points.
03-11-12	Memphis Grizzlies v. Denver Nuggets -6		94-91	Loss	-105	12 h 35 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Nuggets -6 After losing the season's first two meetings in Memphis by a combined 4 points, I expect the Nuggets to avoid the season sweep with a comfortable win tonight. Denver has won 8 in a row at home against the Grizzlies with those wins coming by an average of 14 points. The Grizzlies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games and 5-13 ATS in the last 18 meetings in Denver. We'll lay the points.
03-10-12	Indiana Pacers +9.5 v. Miami Heat	Top	91-93	Win	100	13 h 24 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Pacers +9.5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats to Chicago and Atlanta, and further fueled by a pair of lopsided losses in the season's first two meetings with Miami, expect the Pacers to leave it all on the floor tonight. Indiana believes it can play with anyone in the NBA this season, and it will be out to solidify that belief this evening. As far as rest goes, the advantage lies with Indy. It has had 3 full days to rest and prepare while Miami has only had 2. The Heat are 0-8 ATS in home games when playing with 2 days' rest over the last 2 seasons. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. We'll take the points.
03-09-12	Los Angeles Clippers +5 v. San Antonio Spurs	Top	120-108	Win	100	11 h 28 m	Show
5* NBA Friday Night Feast on Clippers +5 Motivated by back-to-back 1-point defeats, and further fueled by a pair of loss to San Antonio this season, expect the Clippers to give the Spurs all they want and more. The Clippers have been a strong wager in bounce back spots at 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The fact San Antonio enters off a satisfying win over the Knicks bodes well for us. That's because the Spurs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Spurs have dropped 2 of their last 4 at home, and could suffer another setback tonight. We'll take the points.
03-08-12	Dallas Mavericks v. Phoenix Suns +3.5	Top	94-96	Win	100	13 h 26 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET (TNT) on Suns +3.5 This is a game the Suns want badly. They have lost 8 in a row to the Mavs, including all 3 this season, and were embarrassed with a 122-99 home loss the last time they squared off. Motivation is rarely enough alone, so it's fortunate for us that Dallas has been struggling on the road. This really doesn't come as much of a surprise. Dallas was so good last season because of its bench, and it's not getting the same production from the second unit due to injuries and losing J.J. Barea. Dallas has lost 4 in a row on the road by an average of 6.8 points and one of those was a 5-point loss to lowly New Orleans. The Suns, meanwhile, have won 5 of their last 6 at home and haven't lost by more than 2 points in any of their last 7 home games. The Suns played in OKC last night but shouldn't be gassed as they had 2 days' rest prior. In fact, the Suns are 9-0 ATS all-time under coach Gentry in home games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days. They have won by an average score of 101.2 to 92.0 in this spot. We'll take the Suns.
03-07-12	Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers -5.5	Top	71-103	Win	100	10 h 32 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers -5.5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect the 76ers to bounce back strong against a fatigued Boston squad that was pushed to OT last night. The Celtics have won 5 in a row, with the last 4 coming at home, but I believe their luck is about to change on the road. The Celtics are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games when playing without a day of rest and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The 76ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Lay the points.
03-06-12	Los Angeles Lakers v. Detroit Pistons +6	Top	85-88	Win	100	11 h 52 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Pistons +6 There's no place like home for the Lakers, who are just 6-12 SU and 5-13 ATS on the road. The Lakers haven't won by more than 5 points away from home this season with those 6 wins coming by just 3.3 points on average. This tells us LA is overvalued tonight. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite while the Pistons are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Pistons are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. We'll take the points.
03-05-12	Sacramento Kings +9.5 v. Denver Nuggets	Top	116-119	Win	100	10 h 50 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Kings +9.5 Out to end a 3-game skid, and out to avenge a pair of embarrassing losses to Denver, the Kings will be lacking no motivation this evening. Sacramento has been a more than quality investment this season when checking in off 3 of more consecutive losses. In fact, it is 8-1 ATS in these spots and is winning by an average of 0.7 points. In addition, the Kings are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Northwest division and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games when playing with a days' rest. We'll back the Kings in this highly motivated spot.
03-04-12	Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers +4	Top	83-93	Win	100	8 h 35 m	Show
5* Sunday NBA BEST BET (ABC) on Lakers +4 The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the Heat in a bounce back spot following a 1-point loss at Utah, but recent history tells us this isn't wise. Consider that Miami is just 4-16 after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing by an average of 2.0 points in this spot. The Lakers are 16-2 at home this season and enter this contest having won 7 in a row at Staples. Their 2 home defeats to the Bulls and Pacers have come by 1 and 2 points respectively. The Lakers will also be very motivated here because they were embarrassed in Miami in January. Plays on home underdogs in non-conference play that are extremely well rested team (playing 3 or less games in 10 days) are an awesome 45-18 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 3.7 points on average but have won by an average of 1.4 points. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and 18-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Lakers.
03-02-12	Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5	Top	112-91	Loss	-110	11 h 33 m	Show
5* NBA Friday Night Feast on Cavs +8.5 Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, and further fueled by an embarrassing 39-point loss to Chicago on Jan. 20, I expect Cleveland to cover this number behind an inspired performance. Because Chicago won the first meeting so handily, I believe it will be much more concerned with its upcoming revenge matchup with Philadelphia. The Cavs lost by 17 at New York Wednesday but are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 8-1 ATS off a road loss this season. Also, the Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog and 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games against top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 9 points or more per game. We'll take the points.
03-01-12	Miami Heat v. Portland Trail Blazers +5		107-93	Loss	-105	14 h 44 m	Show
4* NBA on TNT SMASH on Trail Blazers +5 Miami is being overvalued here as it has won 8 in a row and has the highest winning percentage in the East. History does not appear to be on Miami's side here as it is 0-9 ATS all-time under Spoelstra when checking in off 3 or more consecutive home wins. It is losing by an average 9.1 points in this situation. The Blazers are a heck of a home team. They are 13-5 at the Rose Garden with an average winning margin of 12.7 points. 3 of their home losses have come to the Magic, Thunder and Clippers and none of those came by more than 4 points. The Trail Blazers are entering off a SU and ATS loss at Denver but are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. We'll take the points.
02-29-12	Portland Trailblazers v. Denver Nuggets -3	Top	95-104	Win	100	10 h 50 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Week on Nuggets -3 Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by losses in the season's first two matchups with Portland, expect the Nuggets to bounce back strong tonight. The Blazers won the season's first two meetings by 9 and 20 points but both of those games were in Portland. Home court has meant everything in this series with the home team covering the spread in 12 of the last 14 meetings. Denver has won 6 in a row at home against the Blazers by an average of 15.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Trail Blazers are just 4-16 ATS in the last 20 meetings in Denver. Lay the points.
02-28-12	Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons +4		97-68	Loss	-109	11 h 59 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Pistons +4 Motivated by losing the season's first 2 meetings by 23 and 21 points in Philadelphia, expect the Pistons to get some payback tonight. Detroit has quietly won 10 of its last 12 ATS. Plus, it is 6-4 SU and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games. 2 of those losses came by just 3 and 4 points to Miami and San Antonio. The struggling 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Pistons are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog and 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take Detroit.
02-23-12	New York Knicks v. Miami Heat -8.5		88-102	Win	100	9 h 11 m	Show
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Heat -8.5 This is a statement game for Miami. Linsanity has taken the focus away from the best team in the East, and I expect LeBron James and company to get everyone's attention with an impressive win this evening. Miami has defeated Indiana, San Antonio, the LA Lakers, Philadelphia and Orlando by double digits at home and these are all teams I believe to be better than the Knicks. The Heat defeated the Knicks by 10 points at home last month. That was before Linsanity and Carmelo Anthony didn't play but the Knicks held a 48-point advantage from 3-point range in that game. It will take a similar shooting display for New York to keep this one close and I don't see it happening. Lin has been a great story but Miami has the horses to cause him major problems. Turnovers have been an issue for him, and Miami turns turnovers into fastbreak points. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. Take Miami.
02-22-12	Indiana Pacers v. Charlotte Bobcats +6		102-88	Loss	-110	9 h 4 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Bobcats +6 The Bobcats lost by 22 points at Indiana on Jan. 7 and by 35 points at Indiana on Sunday. The Bobcats haven't played since, and you can bet they'll be out for some serious revenge on their home floor tonight. Charlotte catches the Pacers at a good time as they just played an overtime game last night. The Pacers are a lousy 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Pacers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Look for Charlotte to take Indiana down to the wire.
02-21-12	San Antonio Spurs v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5		97-137	Win	100	12 h 1 m	Show
4* NBA Crunch Time Bailout on Trail Blazers -3.5 Portland, which is 12-5 at home on the season, has been one of the toughest home teams in the league for years. That's something the Spurs know all too well. San Antonio has lost 6 straight at the Rose Garden with those losses coming by an average of 8.2 points. The Spurs are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 in the series and 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Portland. Also, the home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings. The Blazers were kicked by 16 in San Antonio last month but that won't keep me off them here. Consider that Portland is 11-2 ATS in home games when out for revenge for a loss in which it was held to 85 points or less. It has won by an average score of 102.6 to 90.0 in this situation. Last night's SU and ATS loss to the Lakers also bodes well for us. After all, the Trail Blazers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. They are also 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite. We'll lay the points.
02-20-12	San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz +3.5		106-102	Loss	-110	12 h 35 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Jazz +3.5 Look for the Spurs' 10-game win streak to come to an end in Utah tonight. The Jazz are 12-5 at home on the season where they have key wins over the 76ers, Trail Blazers, Clippers and Lakers. They have also lost at home to the Lakers, Clippers and Mavs by 3 points or less. The Spurs have shown they can't be trusted laying points on the road. They are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take Utah.
02-20-12	Washington Wizards +5.5 v. Phoenix Suns	Top	88-104	Loss	-105	12 h 33 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Wizards +5.5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 9-game losing streak in the series, expect the Wizards to play some inspired basketball this evening. The Suns are coming off a big revenge win over the Lakers last night and very likely won't give the Wizards enough respect here. The Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Washington, which has had 2 full days of rest, will be the fresher team tonight. The Suns are 0-9 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons when matched up against an opponent with a winning percentage of 25% or less. The Suns have only won these games by an average of 0.1 points. It's also worth noting that the road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take the points.
02-20-12	New Orleans Hornets +11.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder		93-101	Win	100	11 h 38 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Hornets +11.5 New Orleans, which enters this matchup with plenty of momentum following 3 straight wins, will be out for some serious revenge against the Thunder, who have won the season's first 2 meetings. This is not an ideal spot for Oklahoma City, which will be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back (against a team that has had 2 days of rest) after getting pushed to overtime yesterday. New Orleans should be the fresher side without question. Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points that are out for revenging for a road loss to an opponent, well rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, are 16-6 ATS the last 3 seasons. Also, the Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 11.0 points or more. Take New Orleans.
02-19-12	Los Angeles Lakers v. Phoenix Suns +3		90-102	Win	100	13 h 27 m	Show
4* Sunday Night NBA SMASH on Suns +3 Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats, including a 111-99 loss at L.A. Friday, I expect the Suns to bounce back strong tonight. The Lakers have really struggled on the road, going 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS. The Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and even 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Two things happened in Friday's meeting that I don't expect to happen tonight. Kobe Bryant went off for an efficient 36 points (14-of-25 shooting) and Steve Nash committed a season-worst seven turnovers. Expect the Suns to do a much better job on Bryant and Nash to take better care of the basketball. The result should be a Phoenix victory. The Suns will make Kobe take more shots to get his. Also, Nash has an opportunity to have a big game. The Lakers typically struggle against teams with good point guards.
02-17-12	Dallas Mavericks v. Philadelphia 76ers -2.5		82-75	Loss	-110	11 h 51 m	Show
4* NBA Marquee Matchup (ESPN) on 76ers -2.5 The Mavs are at a disadvantage tonight because of their lack of backcourt depth. Delonte West, their best perimeter defender is likely out until mid-March with a dislocated finger. Rodrique Beaubois is expected to miss tonight's game due to personal reasons and Jason Terry is expected to miss with a quad injury. These absences don't bode well for the Mavs as they go up against one of the deepest team in the league tonight. The 76ers enter off a loss but are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a defeat. They are also 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. We'll lay the points.
02-17-12	Miami Heat v. Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5	Top	111-87	Loss	-110	10 h 2 m	Show
5* NBA Friday Night Feast on Cavaliers +10.5 Motivated by losing the season's first two meetings with Miami, expect the Cavs to give the Heat a game tonight. Cleveland has been no pushover this season. It played the Heat to a 7-point game on Jan. 24 and has wins over the Celtics, Mavericks and Clippers. The last time Miami visited, it was handed a 12-point defeat despite 27 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds from LeBron James. The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. The Heat are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.
02-15-12	Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets +4	Top	95-96	Win	100	10 h 60 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Week on Rockets +4 Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by losses to Oklahoma City in the season's first 2 meetings, expect the Rockets to bounce back strong at home, where they are 10-3 SU (9-4 ATS). The Rockets only lost by 3 points at home to the Thunder on Jan. 7. In fact, they have either won or lost by fewer than 4 points in 13 of the last 14 at home in this series. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. In addition, plays against road favorites that have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 50-18 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 3.7 points but have lost by an average of 1.2. Take Houston as it has an excellent chance to win this one outright.
02-14-12	Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3		105-90	Loss	-115	9 h 15 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET on Pacers +3 Motivated by 3 consecutive losses, and further fueled by an embarrassing 35-point loss in Miami last month, expect Indiana to bounce back strong tonight. The Pacers will be the fresher team as they have had 2 full days to rest up and prepare. The Heat, meanwhile, will be playing their 3rd game in as many days. Plays on home underdogs off an upset loss, good team winning 60% or more of their games on the season, are 45-18 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have been underdogs of 2.6 points on average but have won by an average of 1.8 points. It is worth noting that this system has produced an 8-1 ATS record the last 3 seasons. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog, and the underdog is 22-8-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Take the points.
02-13-12	Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5 v. Orlando Magic		89-102	Loss	-107	10 h 48 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Timberwolves +5.5 Off 3 consecutive defeats, I expect an inspired effort from Minnesota here. The T-Wolves have been playing some ball on the road. They have either won or lost by 5 points or less in 9 of 11 road games, including 4 straight. The Timberwolves are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Magic are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The fact Orlando hasn't been able to force many turnovers of late bodes well for us too. Consider that it is 0-8 ATS in home games after 4 straight games forcing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. It's only winning by an average of 2.1 points in this situation. Lastly, the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the T-Wolves.
02-12-12	Chicago Bulls v. Boston Celtics +4		91-95	Win	100	9 h 7 m	Show
4* NBA Marquee Matchup (ABC) on Celtics +4 Motivated by back-to-back losses and a Jan. 13 loss to the Bulls, expect the Celtics to bounce back strong this afternoon. Boston has been a strong investment when catching points at home, going 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games as a home underdog. The Bulls have covered the spread in each of their last 4 games in which they were valued as a favorite of 5 points or more, but they are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. Chicago's Derrick Rose is listed as questionable for this one with a back injury. I'm expecting him to play, but I like Rajon Rondo's chances of holding him in check. Boston has won 10 of the last 13 at home in this series, and I'll take the C's in this highly motivated spot.
02-11-12	Los Angeles Clippers v. Charlotte Bobcats +10.5		111-86	Loss	-110	12 h 36 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET on Bobcats +10.5 The Clippers are gassed. This will be their 2nd game in as many nights and their 7th already this month. I don't think they'll have enough left in the tank to put away a Charlotte team that has only played 4 games this month. The Bobcats were flat out embarrassed by Chicago last night, and that loss provides all the motivation they need to bounce back strong. Charlotte has either won or lost by 10 points or less in 13 of the last 14 in this series. Also, plays on underdogs of 10 or more points after scoring 80 points or less last game, provided they are facing an opponent that checks in off a game in which 160 total points or less were scored, are 22-4 ATS since 1996. Teams in this situation have been underdogs of 11.8 points on average but have only lost by an average of 4.8. Bet the Bobcats.
02-10-12	Dallas Mavericks -2 v. Minnesota Timberwolves	Top	104-97	Win	100	11 h 40 m	Show
5* NBA Friday Night Feast on Mavs -2 The Mavs had won 18 of 19 against the T-Wolves from Jan. 2006-March 2011 while outscoring them by an average of 9.6 points before losing the first 2 meetings this season. They had also won 9 in a row at the Target Center before a 99-82 loss Jan. 1. Motivated by those 2 defeats, expect the reigning NBA champs to rise to the occasion this evening. This is a great spot for Dallas considering it is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 104.4 to 95.9 in this situation. The Mavericks are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 road games while the Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Minnesota, and the road team is 21-5 ATS in the last 26 meetings. We'll bet Dallas in this revenge spot.
02-10-12	New Jersey Nets v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 188.5		92-109	Loss	-110	10 h 4 m	Show
4* NBA Total of the Week on Nets/Pistons Under 188.5 We saw just 191 total points scored when these two faced off Wednesday and Detroit shot a season-high 53.4 percent - just the 3rd time all season it's made 50% or more of its shots in a game. I don't see shots falling as easily for Detroit tonight as New Jersey really tightens the screws defensively, and this one should find its way under the number as a result. We also find that New Jersey made 10 3-pointers Wednesday, so you can bet the Pistons will be looking to do a better job of defending the 3-point line. The Under is 5-0 in the Nets' last 5 road games vs. all teams with a losing home record. With odds makers listing the total lower than what these teams just scored, they are clearly begging for action on the over. We won't bite. Take the Under.
02-09-12	Houston Rockets v. Phoenix Suns -3.5	Top	96-89	Loss	-104	11 h 6 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Suns -3.5 Phoenix is playing its best basketball of the season and has won 3 in a row as a result. It is playing with a lot of confidence right now and will be hungry to avenge Friday's embarrassing 18-point loss at Houston. This is a difficult spot for the Rockets, who just played and won in Portland last night. I don't think they'll give a team they just smoked enough focus as a result. Plus, Houston is expected to be without starting guard Kyle Lowry. Don't expect the offense to run as smoothly without the team's assist leader on the floor. The Suns are 4-0 in their last 4 at home in this series with those wins coming by an average of 6.5 points. Also, the Rockets are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog, 7-22 ATS in the last 29 meetings in this series and 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Phoenix. Take the Suns.
02-08-12	Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks -3	Top	87-97	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hawks -3 Off 3 straight losses and having already fallen to Indiana this season, Atlanta will be lacking no motivation tonight. Plus, it bodes well for us that the Pacers just played last night. The Pacers are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Also, Indiana is 4-14 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days since the beginning of last season. It has lost these games by an average of 10.6 points. In addition, the Hawks have won 8 in a row at home in this series by 16, 12, 14, 4, 11, 10, 14 and 15 points - an average margin of 12.0 points. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Pacers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta. We'll take the Hawks.
02-07-12	Phoenix Suns v. Milwaukee Bucks -7	Top	107-105	Loss	-108	11 h 47 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Bucks -7 The Bucks have lost back-to-back games since a 3-game winning streak that included wins over the Lakers and Heat. Motivated by those losses, and a 16-point defeat in Phoenix last month, expect them to bounce back strong tonight. Consider that Milwaukee is 19-8 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Suns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Bucks have had 2 full days of rest and preparation while the Suns just played last night. We'll bet the Bucks.
02-06-12	San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies -1.5		89-84	Loss	-103	11 h 38 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET on Grizzlies -1.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and a pair of losses to San Antonio this season, expect Memphis to bounce back strong at home tonight. The Grizzlies have been at their best at home where they have won 7 of 10 games. The Spurs, meanwhile, have struggled on the road, losing 8 of 11. It is also worth noting that they have dropped 5 of their last 6 at Memphis with those five losses coming by an average of 10.4 points. The fact the Grizzlies played yesterday is of no concern. We're talking about a team that is 21-4 ATS since the beginning of last season when playing on back-to-back days. It has won by an average score of 100.1 to 96.7 in this situation. Also, the Grizzlies are 17-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, 25-10 ATS when out for revenge for a same season loss over the last 2 seasons, 19-8 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent - over the last 2 seasons and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games, 2-10-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Memphis. Take the Grizzlies.
02-03-12	Memphis Grizzlies +9 v. Oklahoma City Thunder		94-101	Win	100	11 h 36 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Grizzlies +9 After narrow losses of 3 and 5 points in the season's first 2 meetings, Memphis won't be lacking any confidence as it looks to spoil Oklahoma City's 5-game home winning streak. The Grizzlies have regained their swagger with back-to-back wins over solid Denver and Atlanta squads, and I expect no letdown against a team they want badly. This will be Memphis' 5th game in 7 days, but history tells us not to be concerned. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road win by 10 points or more, a team playing their 5th game in 7 days, are 13-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, Memphis is an incredible 20-4 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average of 3.8 points. We'll take the points.
02-03-12	Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors -4.5	Top	89-106	Win	100	9 h 14 m	Show
5* NBA FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST on Raptors -4.5 Motivated by back-to-back embarrassing losses to Atlanta and Boston, and further fueled by a 15-point loss at Washington last month, expect Toronto to turn in an inspired performance tonight. The home team has been the play in this series of late. It won each of the last 6 meetings. Toronto has won its 3 at home during this span by 5, 19 and 9 points. The Raptors also fit into an extremely profitable wagering situation. Consider that plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, provided they are checking in off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 5.8 points and have won by an average of 13.1. In addition, Washington is 0-10 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average of 13.7 points. Take Toronto.
02-02-12	Portland Trail Blazers v. Sacramento Kings +3.5		92-95	Win	100	13 h 45 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET on Kings +3.5 Back home, hungry to snap a 5-game losing streak, and further fueled by a pair of losses in Portland this season, look for the Kings to take care of business tonight. The Blazers are not the same team on the road, where they are 3-8 SU and ATS this season. Dating back to last season, the Trail Blazers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Kings have played well in their last 2 games, losing at both Utah and Golden State by 3 points. Expect their strong play to continue tonight at home, where I like their chances of pulling the upset.
02-01-12	Toronto Raptors +9.5 v. Boston Celtics	Top	64-100	Loss	-105	9 h 3 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Raptors +9.5 Motivated by Tuesday's embarrassing 100-77 loss to Atlanta, and further motivated by a 96-73 loss in Boston on Jan. 18, expect the Raptors to give the Celtics a game this evening. The fact Boston played last night also is very important. The aging Celtics won't be able to bounce back as well physically as the more youthful Raptors. Consider that the Celtics are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Celtics are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take Toronto and the points.
01-31-12	New Jersey Nets +9.5 v. Indiana Pacers	Top	99-106	Win	100	10 h 48 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Nets +9.5 The Nets had won back-to-back games on the road over Philadelphia and Cleveland before laying an egg at home against Toronto Sunday. Motivated by that loss, and a loss to Indiana on Jan. 2, expect the Nets to give the Pacers a game tonight. Indiana won the season's first meeting by 14 points but hit 13 of 21 from 3-point range in that game. Considering the Pacers are only averaging 4 3-point makes on 12 attempts per game, I don't see them going off from deep again. New Jersey has quietly won 2 of its last 3 and 4 of its last 7. It's a better team than it was when it saw Indiana in early January, and I believe we'll see that tonight. The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Also, the road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the points.
01-30-12	New Orleans Hornets +13 v. Miami Heat		95-109	Loss	-110	10 h 11 m	Show
3* NBA Super System Smoker on Hornets +13 It's going to be tough for the Heat to get up for this game following such a big win over the Bulls Sunday. The Hornets, meanwhile, will have no trouble getting up for the defending Eastern Conference Champs, especially following Sunday's disappointing performance against the Hawks. History is on our side here as plays against home favorites of 10 or more points, provided they are a very good team that outscores their opponents by 6 or more points/game and are coming off a win by 6 points or less, are 40-17 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by an average of 12.0 points but are only winning by an average of 9.1 in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Heat are just 11-23 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points under coach Spoelstra. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 11.0 points or more. The Hornets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or more points, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Hornets are also 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 in this series and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Miami. Take the points.
01-30-12	Orlando Magic +7.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers	Top	69-74	Win	100	9 h 14 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Magic +7.5 Off 3 straight losses, including back-to-back blowout defeats, expect the Orlando Magic to take out their frustrations on a team they have owned. The Magic have won 3 in a row and 10 of the last 11 in this series. They have even won 6 straight in Philadelphia. In addition, teams coached by Stan Van Gundy are an impressive 13-3 ATS following a blowout loss by 20 points or more. His teams are winning by an average of 5.3 points in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Magic are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. Also, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. We'll take the points.
01-29-12	Los Angeles Clippers v. Denver Nuggets -6		109-105	Loss	-108	12 h 44 m	Show
3* NBA SMASH on Nuggets -6 The Clippers have struggled away from home as one might expect considering all their new pieces. Since a season-opening win at Golden State, they've lost 4 straight on the road by an average of 16.8 points. Denver has won 6 in a row and is 7-2 at home, where it has an impressive 11-point win over the mighty Miami Heat. If it can conquer the Heat by double digits, it can certainly cover this number. The Nuggets have been a fantastic investment at 14-5 SU and ATS on the season. Looking back, they are 37-12-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall. They're 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 home games and 17-5-2 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Clippers are 21-50 ATS in their last 71 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. We'll lay the points.
01-27-12	Toronto Raptors v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 199	Top	81-96	Win	100	10 h 19 m	Show
5* NBA Total of the Week on Raptors/Nuggets Under 199 Denver is the highest scoring team in the NBA but it won't be the same high-octane team with without point guard Ty Lawson, who is expected to miss with an ankle injury. The Nuggets won't get as much in transition without their tempo-pusher. Toronto is among the lowest scoring teams in the league, and it will especially have difficulty piling up points tonight with leading scorer Andrea Bargnani expected to miss with a calf injury. Plays Under on all teams (Denver in this case) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points that have gone over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, with a winning record on the season, are 45-19 since 1996. We have only seen an average of 189.3 total points scored in this situation. It is also worth noting that this system is 7-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Under is 16-7-1 in the Raptors' last 24 overall and 7-2 in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 11.0 points or more. The Under is also 5-1 in the Nuggets' last 6 games as a home favorite. Take the Under.
01-27-12	New York Knicks +11 v. Miami Heat		89-99	Win	100	9 h 56 m	Show
3* NBA SMASH on Knicks +11 The season has not started out the way the Knicks had envisioned, but a win over the Heat would go a long way toward righting the ship. I expect them to give Miami a game as they try to make a major statement with a win. Historically speaking, this is a good spot to back the Knicks. Consider that plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points - cold team failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 and an extremely tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days - are 47-20 ATS since 1996. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are an incredible 26-10 ATS as a road underdog since the beginning of last season. Plus, they are a perfect 14-0 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 4 days under coach D'Antoni. We'll take the points. *Note: Carmelo Anthony is out tonight but this is still a play. The Knicks are showing value as a double-digit dog as teams often elevate their play in the absence of a star.
01-26-12	Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic -8		91-83	Loss	-110	10 h 21 m	Show
4* NBA on TNT SMASH on Magic -8 This game is all about revenge for the Magic, who were embarrassed with a 31-point loss in Boston Monday. The Magic showed their disgust with that performance Tuesday when they crushed Indiana 102-83. Now, they get a chance to pay back the Celtics, and I don't expect them to squander the opportunity. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out to avenge a road loss to an opponent, provided that foe is coming off a home win or 20 points or more, are 35-12 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 10.9 points. It is also worth noting that Boston is just 1-10 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Plus, the home team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 in this series. We'll lay the points.
01-25-12	Portland Trail Blazers v. Golden State Warriors -3.5	Top	93-101	Win	100	13 h 30 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors -3.5 The Warriors will be lacking no motivation here following 3 straight defeats, including back-to-back heartbreaking losses at home by 3 points and 1 point respectively. A motivated effort should translate into a comfortable win versus a Portland squad that has lost 5 of its last 7 on the road and is playing its 3rd game in as many days. The Trail Blazers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. The Trail Blazers are also 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series and 1-11 ATS in the last 12 meetings at Golden State. We'll lay the points.
01-24-12	Orlando Magic +3.5 v. Indiana Pacers		102-83	Win	100	9 h 48 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Magic +3.5 Orlando will relish the opportunity to get right back on the court tonight after setting franchise lows for points, field goals (16) and field goal percentage (24.6) in an 87-56 loss at Boston Monday. It hasn't been wise to doubt Stan Van Gundy's teams after a blowout loss of 20 points or more as they are 12-2 ATS all-time in these spots with an average winning margin of 6.2 points. Plus, the Pacers have had no answer for Dwight Howard and company. Orlando has won 5 in a row against Indiana by an average of 13.6 points. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss, 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Take the points.
01-23-12	Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors -1.5	Top	91-90	Loss	-105	13 h 13 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Warriors -1.5 Off back-to-back losses, the Warriors will leave it all on the floor to get back in the win column tonight. Memphis hasn't had much luck at Golden State, where it has dropped 3 in a row and 7 of its last 9. Its last 3 road defeats in this series have come by an average of 10.7 points. The road hasn't treated the Grizzlies well. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Plus, the road team is just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 matchups between these two. The fact the Warriors have had a couple days to rest is also important considering they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Take Golden State.
01-20-12	Atlanta Hawks v. Philadelphia 76ers -5.5	Top	76-90	Win	100	10 h 44 m	Show
5* NBA Friday Night Feast on 76ers -5.5 Not having Al Horford in the lineup is a big deal tonight as he was the key to Atlanta's 2 wins over the 76ers last season. He combined for 35 points and 25 rebounds in those victories. The Hawks lost the game he sat out last season by 34 points. They also lost the game in which he only scored eight points on 4-of-12 shooting. Without Horford down low, the Hawks won't have an answer for Elton Brand. The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Philly is also 8-0 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season, winning by an average score of 101.3 to 85.3 in this situation. Lay the points.
01-19-12	Dallas Mavericks +2.5 v. Utah Jazz		94-91	Win	100	11 h 6 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET (TNT) on Mavericks +2.5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect the reigning NBA champs to get back in the win column tonight against a team they have dominated. The Mavs went 4-0 SU and ATS versus Utah last season with wins of 12, 6, 19 and 17 points. The Mavericks have been a terrific investment at 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall. They are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 as a road underdog, including 22-6 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less during this span. They have won these games outright on average by a score of 95.6 to 94.5. It is also worth noting that Dallas is 20-6 ATS in road games following an upset loss under coach Carlisle. It has responded to win by an average score of 102 to 95.5 in this situation. Take the Mavs.
01-18-12	Memphis Grizzlies v. New Orleans Hornets +4.5		93-87	Loss	-105	9 h 12 m	Show
3* NBA Upset of the Night on Hornets +4.5 This is a letdown spot for Memphis following a blowout win over the Bulls. This is also a revenge spot for New Orleans, which lost by 9 to the Grizzlies Saturday. The Grizzlies are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Hornets have either won or lost by 4 points or less in 11 of their last 12 at home in this series. Hungry to end a 6-game home skid and to avenge Saturday's loss to the Grizzlies, look for New Orleans to pull off the upset this evening.
01-18-12	Golden State Warriors v. New Jersey Nets -2.5		100-107	Win	100	8 h 25 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET on Nets -2.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and with a day of rest on their side, expect the Nets to take care of business at home against a Golden State team that just played yesterday. The Nets have won 11 of the last 13 at home in this series. In fact, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Warriors are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings in New Jersey. It's also worth noting that the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Warriors are a weak 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a losing record and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. We'll lay the points.
01-17-12	Charlotte Bobcats +12.5 v. Orlando Magic	Top	89-96	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Bobcats +12.5 Motivated by yesterday's loss to Cleveland, and further fueled by a 21-point loss to Orlando on Dec. 30, expect the Bobcats to give the Magic a game tonight. Because Orlando has already handled Charlotte, it will be much more concerned with Wednesday's matchup with San Antonio and Friday's matchup with the Lakers. The Magic have won 9 straight in the series but only 3 of those wins have come by more than 12 points. History says we're on the right side tonight as well. Consider that plays on underdogs of 10 or more points - cold team having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against a hot team having won 8 or more of their last 10 games - are 170-110 ATS since 1996. This system is 30-14 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 11.0 points or more. The Magic are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite. Take the points.
01-16-12	Oklahoma City Thunder v. Boston Celtics +3.5	Top	97-88	Loss	-110	11 h 35 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET (TNT) on Celtics +3.5 The Celtics, who have lost 4 in a row, are hearing all kinds of talk about how their age is catching up with them. I expect them to put that talk to rest momentarily as they prove that can still compete at an elite level tonight. This is a statement game for the Celtics, who need a confidence-boosting win in the worst possible way. I really like their chances of getting that win against an Oklahoma City team that hasn't been dominant on the road. The Thunder are 5-1 away from home, but 4 of those wins have come by 5 points or less. The Celtics are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Celtics have won 7 of the last 9 in this series. The Thunder are just 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston. Bet Boston.
01-14-12	Philadelphia 76ers v. Washington Wizards +8	Top	103-90	Loss	-110	10 h 3 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Week on Wizards +8 Motivated by last night's 120-89 loss in Philly, expect the Wizards to bounce back strong in the back half of their home-and-home with the 76ers. Philly cruised last night but it also made 12 of 18 3-point attempts. It is only averaging 6 makes in 17 attempts from beyond the arc this season. Don't expect the 3 balls to fall as easily on the road tonight. Washington has won its last 4 home games in this series. Plus, the 76ers are a lousy 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Philly won't come out with the same intensity it had last night. The Wizards, meanwhile, will leave it all on the floor in hopes of saving face following such an embarrassing loss. We'll take the points.
01-13-12	Chicago Bulls v. Boston Celtics +2		88-79	Loss	-105	9 h 6 m	Show
3* NBA SMASH (ESPN) on Celtics +2 With or without Derrick Rose, who is currently listed as doubtful with a toe injury, the Bulls will have a tough time coming away with a win tonight in Boston, where they have lost 10 of their last 12. Off back-to-back losses, at home no less, the Celtics will be out to show they are still an elite team by defeating a team tied for the best record in the NBA. The Celtics have been an exceptional home dog, going 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games in the role. Plus, they are an awesome 16-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games since the beginning of last season. They are winning by an average of 12.0 points in this situation. Bet Boston.
01-13-12	Indiana Pacers v. Toronto Raptors +5.5		95-90	Win	100	8 h 5 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET on Raptors +5.5 Andrea Bargnani is likely out tonight, but I still really like Toronto catching 5.5 points. Motivated by back-to-back losses and a 5-point loss to the Pacers on Dec. 28, and knowing they'll need to step up without their leading scorer, I expect an inspired effort from the Raptors here. Indiana has been inconsistent on the road this season, and likely won't give Toronto its full attention here, especially with a big matchup against Boston scheduled for tomorrow night. Home court has meant everything in this series. In fact, the home team is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. We also find the Pacers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Toronto. It is also worth noting that the Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points while the Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take Toronto.
01-12-12	New York Knicks v. Memphis Grizzlies -4.5		83-94	Win	100	10 h 18 m	Show
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Grizzlies -4.5 Motivated by 3 straight losses and further fueled by a 120-99 beating the last time it saw the Knicks, expect Memphis to play inspired basketball tonight. Memphis is 15-4 ATS since the beginning of last season when checking into a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. It is also 12-0 ATS since the start of last season when checking in off 3 losses in its last 4 games. It has won by an average score of 99 to 90.7 in this situation. The Grizzlies are also an impressive 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Knicks are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest. The Knicks' road wins have come against some of the weakest teams in the league (Kings, Pistons, Wizards). They were blown out at Golden State and the LA Lakers, and I can't see them keeping this one within the number against a young, athletic and hungry Grizzlies squad.
01-11-12	New Jersey Nets v. Denver Nuggets -12.5		115-123	Loss	-103	10 h 14 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET Blowout on Nuggets -12.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing 13-point home loss to New Orleans last game, expect the Nuggets to roll tonight. The Nuggets have been one of the best investments in the NBA at 38-15-2 ATS in their last 55 games. They are 24-8-2 ATS in their last 34 games as a favorite, 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs. the Eastern Conference. In addition, the Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 11.0 points or more. That's a 12-1 ATS angle I'll get behind any day of the week. The Nets lost in Orlando by 16, in Cleveland by 16 and in Boston by 19. Denver plays great basketball at home, and I expect it to cover the number in this highly motivated spot.
01-10-12	Chicago Bulls v. Minnesota Timberwolves +7	Top	111-100	Loss	-110	9 h 12 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on T-Wolves +7 Minnesota is better than its 3-6 record leads you to believe, and this line is inflated because of Chicago's 24-point win last night. The T-Wolves have already defeated the reigning NBA champion Dallas Mavericks and the San Antonio Spurs, who had the best record in the West following the 2010-11 regular season. In addition, they have played the OKC Thunder to a 4-point game and the Miami Heat to a 2-point game. The Bulls are 8-2 but have shown some susceptibility on the road, where both of their losses have happened. One of those defeats came to a Golden State team that isn't playing as well as Minnesota. The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points tonight.
01-10-12	Dallas Mavericks v. Detroit Pistons +7		100-86	Loss	-110	9 h 41 m	Show
3* Fool's Gold Favorite on Pistons +7 The reigning NBA champs look to be fool's gold laying this many points on the road, where they are 0-3 this season. The Pistons are struggling but will be extremely motivated following last night's embarrassing 92-68 loss to the Bulls. While the Mavs are clearly the more talented side, I don't believe this is the right time to take the plunge with them. Jason Kidd is out with a back injury and last year's backup point guard J.J. Barea is now in Minnesota. No one currently on the roster runs the offense as smoothly as those two. Plus, Dirk Nowitzki is yet to find his game. He's averaging just 12.0 points and shooting 30.8 percent over his last three games. The Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The underdog is also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Pistons have either won or lost by 5 points or less in each of the last 5 matchups with the Mavs. We'll fade Dallas.
01-09-12	Minnesota Timberwolves v. Toronto Raptors -3.5		87-97	Win	100	8 h 18 m	Show
4* Monday NBA BEST BET on Raptors -3.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing 35-point loss in Philly last game, look for the Raptors to take out their frustrations on a team they have owned. The Raptors have won 13 of the last 14 in this series, including 7 in a row at home by an average of 10.9 points. The Timberwolves are 2-12 ATS in those 14 meetings and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Toronto. The favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. In addition, the Timberwolves are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. We'll side with the Raptors tonight.
01-07-12	Milwaukee Bucks +10.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers		86-92	Win	100	13 h 11 m	Show
3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Bucks +10.5 The Bucks get the call as a double-digit dog because they are good enough defensively to keep this one close. The Bucks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Clippers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Central division. The Clippers are improved with Chris Paul, but I'm not sold on them yet. They've won 2 straight thanks to some good shooting, but the shots won't fall as easily against a Milwaukee team ranked 3rd in field goal percentage defense (41.2%) and 3rd in 3-point field goal percentage defense (26.9%). Take the points.
01-06-12	Portland Trail Blazers v. Phoenix Suns +2.5	Top	77-102	Win	100	12 h 13 m	Show
5* NBA FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST on Suns +2.5 This is a letdown spot for the Blazers, who hit the road with no rest following a big win over the Lakers. The Blazers have been a solid home team for quite some time but consistency has been an issue on the road. They enter tonight's contest at 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that the home team has had the upper hand in this series, covering the number in 5 of the last 7 meetings. Looking back further, we find the Blazers are only 7-15-2 ATS in the last 24 games in Phoenix. There's something about Friday nights for the Suns, who are an amazing 28-14 ATS when playing on the Friday night stage under coach Gentry. The Suns haven't just won these games, they've won them by an average of 7.4 points. Take Phoenix.
01-06-12	Denver Nuggets v. New Orleans Hornets +4.5		96-88	Loss	-101	10 h 45 m	Show
3* NBA SMASH on Hornets +4.5 Prior to winning 3 in a row at home, the Nuggets dropped back-to-back games on the road. They aren't the same team away from home, and that simple fact gives the Hornets a good opportunity to get the "W" tonight. New Orleans will be lacking no motivation following 4 straight defeats. It is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 4th with 91.0 ppg allowed, and I believe it will really tighten the screws in hopes of ending its skid. While laying the points with Denver at home has been lucrative, it has not been wise to lay the number with the Nuggets on the road, especially a small number. The Nuggets are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Nuggets are just 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series, and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 matchups. Take the points.
01-05-12	Los Angeles Lakers v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5		96-107	Win	100	11 h 32 m	Show
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Blazers -3.5 The Rose Garden has been LA's kryptonite for years. The Lakers are just 6-23 in their last 29 in Portland and 2-10 in their last 12. They are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road this season, and I fully expect their road struggles to continue in a place where they have had virtually no success. Going back to last season, the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. They have also been a poor underdog investment at 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. The Trail Blazers, meanwhile are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 home games and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 NBA on TNT Thursday games. The Lakers are just 10-26 ATS in the last 36 meetings overall in this series and 5-17 ATS in the last 22 meetings in Portland. We'll lay the points.
01-04-12	Chicago Bulls v. Detroit Pistons +6.5		99-83	Loss	-107	7 h 28 m	Show
3* NBA SMASH on Pistons +6.5 I believe it is asking too much of the Bulls to cover this number on the road after spending a lot of energy to erase a 19-point deficit to beat Atlanta 76-74 last night. Chicago won the game on Derrick Rose's layup with 3.7 seconds left. Such an emotionally and physically draining win sets the Bulls up for a letdown this evening. Plus, Detroit likely isn't going to get Chicago's full attention, considering the Bulls have won 11 in a row in this series. While the Bulls have certainly had the upperhand in this series of late, it shouldn't go unmentioned that they have failed to win by more than 5 points in their last 2 in Detroit. The Bulls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference. The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games overall, and the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Detroit.
01-03-12	Charlotte Bobcats +4.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers		101-115	Loss	-110	9 h 15 m	Show
3* NBA BEST BET on Bobcats +4.5 Motivated by 3 straight defeats, including back-to-back blowout losses in which they failed to beat the spread, expect the Bobcats to give the Cavs all they want and more tonight. Cleveland is 2-2 but has played Toronto, Detroit, Indiana and New Jersey and has earned its wins against the Pistons and Nets. None of these teams are considered among the league's elite. The Bobcats, meanwhile, have played Miami twice and Orlando in their last 3 games. They played Miami to a 1-point game last Wednesday, showing they are capable of playing with arguably the best team in the NBA. Charlotte is 14-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. The Bobcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Cavaliers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Also, the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Take the points.
01-02-12	Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 v. Denver Nuggets		86-91	Loss	-105	10 h 36 m	Show
3* NBA BEST BET on Bucks +4.5 This is a tough spot for the Nuggets who are up against a fresh Milwaukee team following a taxing home-and-home with the Lakers. This is just Milwaukee's 4th game of the season and it's had 2 full days to rest up and prepare for this contest. The Nuggets, meanwhile, will be playing their sixth game of the season and third in 3 days. Milwaukee has been a good defensive team since Skiles took over, and so far it has been able to generate more offense this season. Going along with this, we find that plays on any good defensive team (allowing 88-92 ppg) that is matched up against an average defensive team (allowing 92-98 ppg) after leading their last 3 games by 5 points or more at the half are 27-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. The fact Denver has struggled on the boards early on plays in our favor as well. Consider that Milwaukee is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games vs. teams that are outrebounded by 5 or more per game under Skiles. The Bucks have defeated these foes by an average of 8.2 points. Bet the Bucks.
01-01-12	Toronto Raptors +11.5 v. Orlando Magic		96-102	Win	100	8 h 3 m	Show
3* NBA BEST BET on Raptors +11.5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats, look for the Raptors to give Orlando a game tonight. Despite facing lines of +7.5, +14.5, +12.5 and +10, the Raptors have won 3 of the last 4 in this series, and 2 of those wins came in Orlando. The Magic, who are coming off a blowout win at Charlotte, are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points. It is also significant that the Bobcats are a divisional foe because Orlando is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games following a win against a division rival. The Magic have actually lost in this situation by an average score of 95.8 to 92.5. The Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games, and we'll grab them on the road here.
12-31-11	Indiana Pacers v. Detroit Pistons +2.5		88-96	Win	100	8 h 27 m	Show
3* NBA BEST BET on Pistons +2.5 Because of the uptempo style Indiana likes to play, it has been a poor investment when playing on consecutive nights. It will really struggle to find its legs in this one after getting pushed to OT last night. The Pacers are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on back-to-back days,losing these games by an average score of 101.2 to 93.7. They are also 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, losing these contests by an average score of 103.5 to 90.7. The Pistons want their first win of the season and would love to get it against an Indiana team that defeated them Monday. That games was at Indiana, and I'm expecting a different story in Detroit, where the Pistons have won the last 2 in the series by 12 and 6 points respectively.
12-30-11	New Jersey Nets +12.5 v. Atlanta Hawks		98-105	Win	100	10 h 33 m	Show
3* NBA FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST on Nets +12.5 Atlanta, which has won its first two games handily and defeated the Nets by 36 Tuesday, won't give the Nets the respect they deserve tonight. You can bet New Jersey, which has been crushed in its last 2 games, will give everything it has to make sure it isn't embarrassed by the Hawks again. This isn't a good spot for the Hawks, who are 0-12 ATS under in home games after playing a game as a home favorite under coach Drew. The Hawks have lost these 12 games by an average of 9.3 points. The Nets aren't happy with the way they've played in their last 2 games. Rest assured, those poor performances will be all the motivation they need to keep this one within the number tonight.
12-29-11	San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets +3		85-105	Win	100	8 h 8 m	Show
3* NBA SMASH on Rockets +3 Off back-to-back blowout wins at home, expect the Spurs to come up short in their first road game of the season. This old Spurs team, which is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing without a day of rest, won't have enough legs to get it done against a younger Houston squad that is playing on 2 day's rest. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest. It also bodes well for us that Houston enters this contest off a loss against the spread. That's because the Rockets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS defeat. It is also worth noting that the underdog has covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 in this series. The Spurs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. divisional foes and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. We'll take the Rockets.
12-28-11	Utah Jazz +12 v. Denver Nuggets		100-117	Loss	-107	12 h 36 m	Show
3* Western Conference BEST BET on Jazz +12 The Jazz are being undervalued here because they are coming off a 25-point loss and are matched up against an opponent checking in off a 22-point win. Utah, which was held to 32.2% shooting by a motivated Lakers squad last night, should fare better here against a Denver team not known for its defense. This is a solid spot to back the Jazz considering they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Utah has won 2 of the last 3 in this series with the lone loss coming by just 2 points. Take the Jazz.
12-28-11	Washington Wizards +9.5 v. Atlanta Hawks		83-101	Loss	-105	10 h 52 m	Show
3* NBA Eastern Conference BEST BET on Wizards +9.5 The Hawks are being overvalued here because they defeated a New Jersey team by 36 points that the Wizards lost to by 6. Keep in mind that Washington blew a 21-point lead in that loss. That defeat has no doubt left a sour taste in its mouth which should fuel a strong effort this evening. Taking the Wizards following an ATS loss has been a good move as they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS defeat. Also, Washington has either won or played the Hawks to within 7 points or less in 3 of the last 4 meetings. We'll take the points tonight.
12-27-11	Sacramento Kings v. Portland Trail Blazers -7.5		79-101	Win	100	12 h 43 m	Show
3* NBA BEST BET on Blazers -7.5 Expect a letdown from the Kings as they head to Portland following a big win over the Lakers. Portland has won nine of 10 meetings with Sacramento since the start of the 2008-09 season, and I expect its dominance over the Kings to continue. The Kings are a lousy 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without a day of rest while the Trail Blazers are an impressive 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 games playing on 0 days' rest. The Blazers are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Trail Blazers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll lay the number.