3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Nets +

I like the value here with the Nets catching a decent number here agains the Hornets. Just when it looked like Charlotte was making a move after winning 5 straight, they have lost their last 4. This team is a miserable 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games. This team continues to get too much respect. 

As bad as the Nets have been, I wouldn't be shocked to see them win this game outright. Brooklyn is starting to get healthy and I think they gained some confidence in their last game against the Warriors. While they lost by 14, they can build on the fact that they took a halftime lead against the defending champs after being down by as many as 21 in the 1st quarter. 

Charlotte has to be a tired team right now and are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games when playing their 8th game in 14 days. They have also really struggled against the Atlantic division, going just 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games. It's the exact opposite for the Nets, who are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs the Southeast. Take Brooklyn! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Lakers UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Lakers hosting the Magic. While these two teams have played in a lot of high-scoring games of late, both come in off a poor offensive showing. Orlando scored just 80 points and shot a mere 34.1% from the field in their last game at Utah, while LA scored just 103 and shot 39.5% from the field in their last game against the Blazers. 

UNDER is 7-1 in the Magic's last 8 games vs a team with a losing record and 11-2 in their last 13 vs the Western Conference. UNDER is also 15-3 in the last 18 meetings between these two teams when they face off in LA. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Nuggets visiting the Mavericks. Denver comes in scorching hot on the offensive side of the ball. They have scored 104  or more points in 14 straight games and have hit or eclipsed 110 points in 11 of those 14 games. They are averaging 118 ppg over their last 5. 

Dallas isn't a great offensive team, but are in good form, averaging 107 ppg over their last 4. I think they hit that mark and then some. As good as the Nuggets have been offensively, they have been just as bad defensively. Denver has given up 100+ in 14 straight and have allowed 12 of their last 13 opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. 

OVER is 21-8 in the Mavs last 29 home games after giving up 105 or more points in 3 straight games and 5-0 in their last 5 at home. OVER is also 14-4 in the Nuggets last 18 road games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games and 20-9 in their last 29 off 2 or more consecutive wins. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Suns/Heat OVER

I'm recommending a play on the OVER in Monday's NBA action that has the Suns visiting the Heat. In Phoenix's 6 games since the All-Star break they rank 1st in the league in pace of play and I think that up-tempo brand of basketball will help push this well over the mark. The Suns have scored 112.5 ppg in those 6 games since the break. As good as the offense has been, the defense has been equally bad, which explains why they are just 1-5 SU despite the offensive fire-works. Phoenix is giving up 116.3 ppg during this stretch. 

Miami is known more as a defensive team, but are just two games removed from allowing 131 to the Lakers on their home floor. They are also trending up offensively right now, as they have scored 100+ in 7 straight games and should have zero problem eclipsing that mark against this Suns defense, which might be lacking energy off that crushing last second loss to the Hawks yesterday. 

OVER is 8-3 in the Heat's last 11 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 games vs a team from the Western Conference. OVER is also 11-2 in the Suns last 13 road games when playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and 7-0 in their last 7 when their starting 5 logged more than 160 minutes the previous day. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bucks UNDER

I think we are going to see a high-intensity game here on Sunday with the Bucks and 76ers facing off in Milwaukee. Both of these teams are trying to climb up the ranks in the Eastern Conference and I expect both to be highly motivated for a win. 

Philadelphia comes in playing their best basketball of the season, as they are 9-2 in their last 11 games. The 76ers will be motivated to keep that going. As for the Bucks, they come in having lost 4 straight and will be desperate for a win here. Note the UNDER has cashed in each of Philadelphia's last 4 games and each of Milwaukee's last 3 contests. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in play based off the Wizards recent struggles. The UNDER is 142-81 (64%) over the last 5 seasons in the month of March when you have a total greater than 200 in a game that involves a team that's lost 3 or more straight games. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacers UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Wizards hosting the Pacers. Just 2-games separate these two teams in the Eastern Conference playoff race and I think both sides will be highly motivated here to get a win. 

Indiana snapped a short 2-game skid with an impressive 103-96 win at Milwaukee in their last game and should be motivated here to finish up their road trip with a .500 record at 2-2. As for Washington, they are looking to bounce back from back-to-back home losses to the Warriors and Raptors. 

It's also worth noting the UNDER has been a really strong play of late in Wizards' games. In fact, the UNDER has cashed in each of Washington's last 4 games. The Pacers have also played to the UNDER in each of their last 2 games and is 9-2-1 in Indiana's last 12 road games and 5-0-1 in their last 6 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Warriors/Hawks OVER

I recommending playing the OVER in Friday's NBA action that has the Hawks hosting the Warriors. We can pretty much bank on Golden State putting up a big number here offensively. The Warriors haven't scored fewer than 105 points in 11 straight games and are averaging 119.4 ppg over their last 5. Atlanta doesn't have the talent or scheme defensively to slow them down. 

The key here is I don't think we are going to see Golden State bring the defensive intensity against an inferior opponent in what's the final game of a 3-game road trip and a nice 3-day break looming after this contest. I think we get a very similar type of game to the Warriors recent road game against the Knicks, where they won 125-111. 

OVER is 6-2-1 in the Warriors last 9 games vs a team with a losing record. It's also 13-4 in the Hawks last 17 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs a top tier team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Nets UNDER

I like the value in the UNDER for Thursday's NBA action that has two of the league's worst going at it in the Kings and Nets. These are two of the worst offenses in the league. The Kings rank dead last in offensive efficiency and the Nets are far behind at 26th. Note they played once already this season and combined for a mere 203 points in a 104-99 Sacramento win at Brooklyn. I'm expecting a similar outcome here. 

UNDER is 9-2 in the Kings last 11 games vs the Eastern Conference and 12-3 in their last 15 after allowing 105 or more points in 4 straight games. UNDER is also 6-2 in the Nets last 8 vs a team with a losing record, 20-8 in their last 28 off a SU loss and 12-4 in their last 16 when revenging a home loss to an opponent. 

Adding to this is a great system in play. The UNDER is 46-18 (72%) going all the way back to 1996 when you have a total of 210 to 219.5 where you have a bad team (Win pct. 25% to 40%) off a road loss by 10 or more (Kings) and are playing another team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers OVER 

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Hawks hosting the Pacers. These two teams faced off last Friday in the first game out of the break for both sides and the two teams combined for 209 points with Atlanta mustering a mere 93 points. 

The key here to this one being even higher scoring is that the Hawks should be more of a threat offensively at home, as the Pacers are not the same team defensively on the road. On the flip side of this, we should see a similar offensive outburst from Indiana, as Atlanta is equally bad on the defensive end at home as they are on the road. 

OVER is 5-1 in the Hawks last 6 off a loss by 10 or more and 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Hornets -

I like the value here with the Hornets even as a double-digit favorite here at home against the Bulls. Charlotte has come out of the All-Star break playing like a team on a mission to get back in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They have won 3 straight all in convincing fashion. It started with a 111-96 win at home over the Nets, continued with a 122-105 upset win at Washington an added to it most recently with a 114-98 home win over the Pistons. Key here is there's still a ton of work to do, as they are still 4-games out of the 8th and final playoff spot. 

As for Chicago, this is a team I think is trying to lose (tank) and will be a good team to fade going forward, especially on the road. The Bulls lost 104-122 at Minnesota (without Butler) and followed that up with an ugly 87-104 loss at Brooklyn last night. This is now their 3rd road game in 4 days and they are playing on no rest. Look for the Hornets to win this one going away an improve to 5-0 ATS in their last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Charlotte! 

4* NBA Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Jazz +

I like the value here with the Jazz as a home dog against the Rockets tonight. This line really tells you everything. It's no secret that Houston is one of the best teams in the league and they come in having won 12 straight. Utah had been rolling, but have failed to cover each of their last 4 and the public simply won't trust them here, especially with this short number. 

What the public will overlook here is that this is a really tough spot for the Rockets. Houston just played last night in the thin air of Denver and now has to travel to the thin of Utah. Arguably the toughest back-to-back slate in the league. Add in the possibility that Houston will again be without key reserve Eric Gordon and just how well Utah has been playing (12-1 last 13) I think we see the Jazz pull off the upset here. Take Utah! 

4* NBA Over/Under TOTAL NO-BRAINER on Rockets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's late night NBA action between the Rockets and Nuggets. Houston is a team the public absolutely loves to back the OVER because of their offensive fire-power. What people overlook with all the points the Rockets put up is how well they are playing defensively. Houston ranks in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency and have allowed 108 or fewer points in 8 of their last 9, with 6 of those being 102 points or less. 

A big key here is that the Rockets will be playing without Eric Gordon, who is 3rd on the team in scoring at 18.5 ppg and primarily has been their biggest spark off the bench. I think that disrupts the rhythm enough to keep Houston from putting up a big number here. 

This will surprise a lot of people, but the UNDER is 11-2 in the Rockets last 13 games against other teams from the west. It's also 10-4 in their last 14 road games and 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has division rivals Boston and New York going head-to-head at Madison Square Garden. The Celtics returned from the All-Star break with a 110-98 win at Detroit. Their defense held the Pistons to just 43.5% shooting and my money is on another big effort on the defensive side of the ball tonight.

New York put up 120 in a win over the Magic in their last game, but that's nothing to get excited about. This is still a very limited Knicks offense without Porzingis and last time they faced the Celtics they managed just 73 points. Adding to this is the fact that each of the last 4 meetings in the series have seen 204 or fewer combined points with all 3 meetings this seasons failing to eclipse the 200 mark. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Magic +

I like the value here with the Magic catching double-digits on the road against the 76ers this afternoon. While Orlando lost their first game back from the break, this team is finally got their key pieces back from injury and have been an absolute covering machine here of late. The Magic are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games and have lost just once during this stretch by more than 10 points. 

Philadelphia needed some late-game heroics to escape with a 116-115 win at Chicago on Thursday and I just think the 76ers are overvalued right now, as they come in having won 6 straight. Note that this is a team that has routinely struggled to put bad teams away, as they are  a mere 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs a team with a winning percentage below 40%. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in play to fade the 76ers. Home favorites on Saturday when coming off a game where they won outright as a favorite but didn't cover the spread are just 19-47 (29%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Orlando! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER 

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bulls/76ers UNDER

I really like the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Bulls hosting the 76ers. Chicago's offense simply isn't as potent following the trade of Mirotic and they went into the break averaging just 101 ppg over their last 5. Philadelphia on the other hand really got their defense going in the final games before the break, as they allowed just 95.2 ppg over their last 5, while holding opponents to just 41.3% from the field. 

I think that combination will be more than enough to keep this below the mark set by the books. It also helps the game is being played in Chicago, as we should get a big effort here from the Bulls defensively at home.

It's also worth noting the Bulls went into the All-Star break having failed to cover the spread in each of their final 3 games. That's important, because the UNDER is 23-8 in Chicago's last 31 games after failing to cover 3 or more games in a row. UNDER is also 13-4 in the Bulls last 17 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs strong offensive teams that average 106 or more points/game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Pelicans -

I'm recommending laying the points with New Orleans at home on Wednesday against the Lakers. The Pelicans have won and covered each of their last two games, including an impressive 118-103 win on the road against a red-hot Detroit team last time out. 

The Lakers come in off a 123-130 loss at Dallas in the first game with newly acquired Isaiah Thomas. I think the trade LA made to get Thomas, giving up two solid pieces in Nance Jr and Clarkson are a clear sign this team is looking ahead to next year. The big reason Thomas was outed in Cleveland was his defense and in his first game the Lakers the Mavs to put up 130 on them, while shooting 54% from the field. I expect the defense to continue to struggle with him going forward, especially on the road. Take New Orleans!

4* NBA Situational Vegas Insider on Hornets -

I think the price and situation present some solid value here with Charlotte covering as a road favorite against the Magic on Wednesday. This is a big game for the Hornets, who come in having lost 4 straight. I believe they will be extra motivated here to avoid a 5th straight loss going into the All-Star break. As for Orlando, this isn't a team that has a whole lot to play for right now and I think we see a lack of focus from the home team in this one. 

Note that the Hornets have absolutely dominated this series with the Magic, as they have won 9 straight and covered each of the last 7. That includes two meetings this season in Charlotte. Orlando hasn't been great revenging a loss, as they are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games when revenging a road loss to an opponent. They are also just 14-29-1 ATS in their last 44 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Look for the Hornets to take control early on in his one and cruise to a win and cover. Take Charlotte! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Hawks/Bucks OVER

Last time out the Bucks combined with the Magic for 115 points, finishing well over the total posted for that game of 208.5. That snapped a streak of 9-straight games for Milwaukee that had gone UNDER the total. I think we saw a big overreaction from that streak in their game against Orlando, who is awful defensively and not a team the Bucks are going to get up for. I see a very similar scenario here with this game against Atlanta. 

The Hawks are in full on rebuilding mode, and as you might expect for a team that's basically tanking for the future, they aren't great on the road. Atlanta is just 5-22 away from home and a big reason for that is their defense, which gives up 109.3 ppg, while allowing their opponents to shoot 47% from the field. Milwaukee should be able to score at will here. With the All-Star break just around the corner, I don't think we see a great defensive effort here from the Bucks, which should allow the Hawks to provide more than an enough here to push this over the mark. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pelicans +

There's been plenty of excitement with with the Pistons after they landed Blake Griffin in a trade. They won their first 5 games after acquiring him, but have lost their last two, including a bad loss at Atlanta last time out. I think this is a team that is overvalued right now and the Pistons 2-5 ATS record during this stretch backs that up. 

I know the Pelicans aren't the same caliber a team with Cousins sidelined, but they do still have one of the best players in the game in Davis and I think they are poised to go into Detroit and get a win tonight. Pelicans are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 road games vs the Eastern Conference, while the Pistons are a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a loss. Take New Orleans! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in today's early action that has the Raptors visiting the Hornets. I think it's hard for NBA teams to get in a flow offensively in these early games on Sunday, especially this late in the season. These two teams combined for 140 points in their previous meeting back in December, which I believe has this total way too high. 

Toronto has been locked in defensively over their current 4-game winning streak. The Raptors have held their opponents to just 92.5 ppg and have held each of their last 3 opponents under 40% from the field. I think there's a good chance they keep it going here against a Hornets team that has shot poorly in each of their last two games and managed just 94 points in their last game against the Jazz. 

UNDER is 5-1 in the Raptors last 6 games off a win and 4-1 in the Hornets last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The UNDER is 74-39 (66%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total north of 200 where they home team comes in having failed to cover the spread in 3 or more games and are on little rest, playing their 3rd game in a 4 day span. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational (ATS) NO-BRAINER on Jazz -

I like the value here with Utah laying what I feel is a short number at home given the circumstances. The Jazz are playing their best basketball of the season right now. Utah has won 7 straight and 6 of the 7 wins came on the road. No surprise the surge for the Jazz has coincided with the return of big man Rudy Gobert, who is one of the best rim protectors in the game. 

I don't think the Jazz will have any problem keeping it going here against the Hornets. This is a really tough spot for Charlotte, who will be concluding a 4-game road trip that has seen them go from Phoenix to Denver to Portland and now to Utah. They also are on no rest and on top of that last night's game against the Blazers went to OT. Note that the Hornets had to use a ton of energy late in that game, as they rallied from 17 down in the 4th quarter. I just don't think they have enough gas left in the tank to keep this one close. Take Utah! 

4* NBA Celtics/Wizards ATS NO BRAINER on Celtics +

I like the value here with Boston as a dog against the Wizards. I just think we are seeing Washington won their first 5 games after losing John Wall to an injury that will have him sidelined for an extended period, but couldn't keep it going in a 102-115 loss at Philadelphia last time out. I just think we saw a spike in effort with the Wizards, as they wanted to show that they could win without Wall. The problem is that's become a national story, with Wall seemingly upset with his team's success. I just think that takes away from what they had going and this is the time to start fading them. 

As for Boston, this is a great spot to jump on the Celtics after they played one of their worst games of the season last time out in a 20-point loss at Toronto. Anytime a team gets embarrassed like that and doesn't come out with the right energy, they almost always fire right back in the next game with one of their best efforts. I expect exactly that from the Celtics, who will have some added motivation here with this being a nationally televised game on TNT and the fact that they will be out for revenge from a loss to Washington on Christmas Day. Take Boston! 

5* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Jazz visiting the Grizzlies. I know Utah has been putting up some big offensive numbers of late, but I think we could see them struggle to put up a big number here against Memphis. The pace here figures to be  a lot slower than the last few games for the Jazz, plus they have to be a bit fatigued here playing their 4th straight on the road. 

The Grizzlies have decided to sit out arguably their biggest offensive threat in Tyreke Evans until the trade deadline passes. In the 4 games without him the offense hasn't scored more than 102 points and have failed to eclipse 90 in their last 2 games. Memphis has no choice but to slow down the pace without Evans and this isn't a spot where they will look to push it playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. 

UNDER is 11-3 in the Grizzlies last 14 after losing 3 or more straight games, 4-1 in their last 5 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 7-2 in their last 9 home games following a road trip of 7 o more days. UNDER is also 23-8 in the last 31 meetings between these two teams in Memphis. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Raptors/Celtics UNDER

I really like the value here with the UNDER in the total for Tuesday's big Eastern Conference showdown that has Atlantic Division rivals Toronto and Boston facing off. It's no secret that the Celtics are an elite defensive team and we have to believe they will bring their "A" game on that side of the ball against the Raptors, as Boston comes in having allowed just 93.7 ppg in their 11 division games this season. 

So while Toronto comes in averaging 111.4 ppg, there's a good chance they don't come anywhere close to that. The Raptors have been such a good team offensively, people overlook how well they have been playing on the defensive side of the ball. Toronto is only giving up 101.3 ppg at home and have allowed just 99.2 ppg in division games. They are 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Opponents are making just 44.9% of their field goal attempts (6th) and a mere 34.8% of their 3-point shots (4th). As good as Boston is defensively, they are just 24th in scoring at 103.2 ppg and their 44.9% field pct also ranks 24th. Take the UNDER 206! 

4* NBA Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Kings -

I like the value here with Sacramento at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Bulls. Chicago had something going, but it's been all down hill of late. It started with the injury to Kris Dunn that has had him out the last 7 games and won't be suiting up tonight. Then the team traded away their best player in Mirotic, whose return from injury is what sparked their big turnaround. Note they were just 3-20 before he played his first game. They have played the last two without talented rookie Lauri Markkanen, as he was with his family for the birth of his child. He was expected to play tonight, but a flight cancelation has him ruled out. 

Simply put, this is not the same Bulls as they were a couple weeks ago, but are still getting some respect from the books for that run. Sacramento is also a team the public wants nothing to do with, which only adds to the value here with the Kings, who are an impressive 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs the Eastern Conference. Take Sacramento! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Wizards +

Washington has won 4 straight without their All-Star point guard John Wall and have covered the spread in all 4 games, winning twice outright as underdogs. The most recent was a 17 point win as a mere 5-point favorite at Orlando. Simply put the books are undervaluing the Wizards right now because of the Wall injury. Washington's offense hasn't missed Wall at all, as they come in averaging 116 ppg over their last 5. 

The Pacers are a much better team at home, but have really struggled to figure out this Washington team. The Wizards have covered each of their last 8 trips to Indiana, as the road team has now gone a ridiculous 21-5 ATS in the last 26 meetings in the series. Take Washington! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Celtics OVER 

I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Celtics taking on the Blazers. Most will just blindly take the UNDER here due to Kyrie Irving not playing for Boston, but I actually think the books have over-adjusted for this one. 

Boston has scored 100+ in 6 straight games and have shot 47% or better from the field in each of their last 3. Portland is also rolling offensively right now. The Blazers come in off a 25-point loss at Toronto, despite shooting 51% from the field. The second straight game they made more than half their shots. As good as the Celtics are defensively, I don't think we get a great effort from Boston on that side of the ball today. 

OVER is 22-9 in the Celtics last 31 home games after winning 3 of their last 4 and 12-2 in their last 14 home games after scoring 115 or more points in their previous game. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bucks Nets UNDER

I love the value here in the UNDER with Sunday's NBA total that has the Bucks visiting the Nets. Both of these teams have seen the majority of their games finish below the mark here of late. The UNDER has chased in 6 straight games for the Bucks and 11 of their last 13 overall. UNDER is 7-2 in the Bucks last 9 games and 14-4 in their last 14 games at home. 

Add in the early start time here and I just don't see these two teams eclipsing the mark set here by the books. Keep in mind both teams have been struggling offensively. Milwaukee followed an 89-point effort at Minnesota with a mere 92-points in their last game against the Knicks. As for Brooklyn, they scored fewer than 100 points in 4 of their last 5. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Warriors -

I believe the Kings are simply going to be in the wrong place at the wrong time on Friday when they host the Warriors. I expect Golden State to come out looking to make a statement after losing by 30 on the road to the Jazz on Tuesday. That's not just another loss the Warriors are going to shrug off. That's the kind of embarrassing defeat that pisses you off. 

Normally this would potentially be a spot to take the Kings, as it would be easy for Golden State not to take this game seriously. I just don't see that happening and if the Warriors play up to their full potential, Sacramento has no chance of keeping this within 20 points. Take Golden State! 

3* NBA Nuggets/Thunder Late Night ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets +

I like the value here with the Nuggets in Thursday's showdown against the Thunder in what will be a nationally televised game on TNT. Denver has to be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor after two crushing losses in their last two games. The Nuggets lost 110-111 to the Celtics on Monday and 104-106 at San Antonio the very next night. I think we get a big time effort here from Denver. 

As for the Thunder, I don't think this is a great spot for OKC to play well. The Thunder just played on the east coast Tuesday at Washington and didn't play well, losing 96-102 (shot just 37.5% from the field). They got just one day off and had to fly all the way out to Denver. I just think that first loss after a long win streak is tough to bounce back from and I don't love the trade rumors that OKC had a deal to trade Paul George for Blake Griffin. Take Denver! 

4* NBA Over/Under NO BRAINER on Pacers UNDER 

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Grizzlies visiting the Pacers.  Indiana should be able to dictate the tempo here on their home floor and the Pacers play at one of the slower paces in the league. It's big reason why the UNDER is 16-10-1 in their 27 home games this season. 

Memphis has been playing in a number of higher scoring games, but the UNDER has gone 6-1 in the Grizzlies last 7 vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Pacers last 9 vs the Western Conference, 8-2-1 in their last 11 after a game where they scored 100+ points and 12-3-1 in their last 16 vs a team that allowed 100+ points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS B-L-O-W-O-U-T on Raptors -

This might seem like a lot of points for Toronto to be laying against a team like the Timberwolves, but I actually feel that there is some decent value here with Toronto. Chances are that with free throws late, if the Raptors win here they do so by at least 7. I'm not so sure we will even have to worry about free throws. 

Toronto is coming off a really strong showing in their last game against a red-hot Lakers team, covering as a double-digit favorite. I expect another big effort here in what will be their 3rd straight at home with a full day in between each game. While Toronto is rested, Minnesota is a team that I think is running on fumes right now. The Timberwolves haven't played consecutive games in the same city in more than 2 weeks. They played 2 on the road, 1 at home, 3 more on the road, one at home and now playing their 2nd on the road in a back-to-back spot. Take Toronto! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nuggets -

Given normal circumstances this would be a great line to back Boston, but this is not just a normal game for the Celtics. Boston has championship aspirations and they got a chance to put their goals to the test this past Saturday in a showdown at Golden State. That's a game they were really looking forward to and they almost pulled off the upset.

I just have a hard time seeing them being 100% locked in for this game tonight against the Nuggets. Keep in mind that this is also the final game of a 4-game road trip on the west coast, so players could be looking forward to return home and have to be a bit fatigued. 

Denver has some nice talent, but haven't played up to their potential so far. However, they have won 3 straight and I see them being extremely motivated to play well here. Much like the Celtics used the game against the Warriors to see where they were, I think Denver will treat this in a similar way. Simply put the Nuggets are favored for a reason here. Take Denver! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHLATOR on Raptors -

The public is going to be all over the Lakers here with LA coming in having won 4 straight and the Raptors fresh off a home loss to the Jazz. That has me going the other direction and backing Toronto here to win at home by double-digits.

Most of the Lakers recent success has come at home, as they are just 7-15 on the road the road this season. Their struggles away from home stem from a defense that allows 112 ppg on the highway. That's going to make it tough for them to keep pace with the Raptors here, as Toronto is averaging 112.1 ppg at home. Raptors don't just score better at home, they only give up 101.3 ppg on the defensive side of the ball. 

Raptors are a team you want to jump on when they have struggled to cover the numbers, as they are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 when failing to cover 4 of their last 5 games. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their teams. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Pelicans UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for Saturday's total between the Clippers and Pelicans. New Orleans ranks 3rd in the NBA at 111.1 ppg, but they simply aren't going to be the same explosive offensive team going forward. The Pelicans lost star big man DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending injury. Cousins was averaging 25.2 ppg and a team high 2.2 made 3-pointers/game. New Orleans will have to adjust their style and I think it takes some time for the offense to figure it out. 

The Clippers come in having allowed and scored at least 100 points in 13 straight games, which is also creating value with this big total set here. The offense hasn't been as good for LA the last two games and I think we see them struggle to get going here. 

UNDER is 41-14 (75%) when you have a total of 220 to 229.5 where the road team is revenging a loss to a team that scored 100+ points in the previous meeting and is off a road win. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA 76ers/Spurs HEAVY HITTER on Spurs -

I just think this is too good a price to pass up on San Antonio. The Spurs might be without Ginobili, Gay and Leonard, but they come in having won 2 straight and are 20-3 SU and 16-6 ATS at home this season. I just feel this line is a lot lower than it should be due to the fact the 76ers come in off a blowout win and cover over Chicago and are 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 overall. Only 3 of those 8 wins came on the road and two were against struggling teams in Denver and Phoenix and the other was the Celtics without Irving. 

San Antonio is 6-1 ATS last 7 at home, 11-5-1 ATS last 17 vs the Eastern Conference and 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 when playing with 1 day of rest. Spurs are also 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games vs strong rebounding teams who are averaging 3+ rebounds more than their opponents on the season. Take San Antonio! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS B-L-O-W-O-U-T on Bulls -

I really like the value here with Chicago as a short home favorite against the Lakers on Friday. The Bulls are simply a much better team than their 18-30 record would suggest. This team has been playing so well of late a a lot of people forget they started out the season 3-20. I just don't think they are getting enough respect here at home. 

A big reason for that is the Lakers enter this contest having won 3 straight and are 7-2 in their last 9 games. What people overlook when looking at how well they have been playing, is that 6 of those 7 wins came on their home floor. The only road victory was an overtime win at Dallas, who owns one of the worst records in the league. LA is also still without starting point guard Lonzo Ball and I think they will miss him even more on the road. 

Bulls are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games and 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs a team with a losing record. Lakers are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Chicago! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks UNDER 

I like the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Nuggets hosting the Knicks. Denver has really been struggling offensively here of late. They have scored 105 or fewer points in 7 straight games and have shot 41% or worse from the field 5 times during this stretch. 

While the Knicks aren't a great defensive team, Denver has been struggling against teams who are just as bad on that side of the ball. Add in the fact that over the last 15 games both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace and offensive efficiency and I think we have a game that could struggle to see 200 combined points. 

UNDER is 14-6 in the Nuggets 20 games this season as a home favorite, 15-4 in their last 19 when revenging a loss and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 when playing on a full 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Rockets -

I like the value here with Houston and see the Rockets covering easily on the road Wednesday against the Mavs. The Rockets have won 3 straight and are 5-2 ATS in their last 7. Injuries played a big part in Houston cooling off from their ridiculous pace to start the year that saw them open the season 25-4. Now that everyone is healthy for the Rockets, I think we see them get back to dominating the opposition. 

Dallas had been playing well for a stretch, but are just 3-6 SU in their last 9. I'm sure they will give a big effort here with this game being televised on ESPN, but so will the Rockets. I just don't see the Mavs being able to keep pace offensively. Not to mention this line is basically calling for them to have a shot to win this game outright and I just don't see that being the case. Take Houston! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bulls UNDER

I think we are getting great value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA total between the Bulls and 76ers. Chicago's a team that normally likes to play at a pretty fast pace, but I think we see a much slower tempo here from the Bulls. Chicago is playing their 3rd straight on the road over a span of just 5 days and are coming off a grueling double-overtime loss to the Pelicans. 

The 76ers are also playing for the 3rd time in 5 days and were on the road last time out at Memphis. A game they blew a late lead in by giving up 31 in the 4th quarter. Head coach Brett Brown called out his star players and I think we get a big effort here from the 76ers. The offense also figures to still be limited with both McConnell and Redick out with injuries. 

UNDER is 34-17 in the Bulls last 51 after 3 straight games in which they scored 105 or more points and 10-1 in the 76ers last 11 home games against a team that's only won between 25% and 40% of their games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Situational ANNIHILATOR  on Grizzlies +

I like the value here with Memphis as a home dog against the 76ers on Monday. The public is all over Philadelphia, who comes in having won 3 straight and are 7-1 in their last 8 games. However, I think it's going to be tough for the 76ers to get up here after a grueling stretch that had them play the Raptors at home, Celtics on the road and Bucks at home in a span of just 6 days last week. It won't be easy getting up on the road against the Grizzlies. 

Memphis doesn't get a ton of love and rightfully so with an overall record of 16-29, but this team has quietly been playing well and have been a covering machine. Grizzlies have covered 4 straight and 9 of their last 11 overall. They have won 4 straight at home and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Backing up a possible letdown here for the 76ers is the fact that Philadelphia is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Memphis! 

4* NBA Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Pistons -

I like the value here with Detroit at home against Brooklyn on Sunday. The Pistons come in having dropped 4 straight and their last two at home have seen them lose by 11 to the Hornets and 10 to the Wizards. Guys going in and out of the lineup played a big part of the struggles for Detroit during this stretch and that's why I'm confident backing them here with a near full roster. 

The other thing is how Detroit has historically bounced back from a bad loss, especially when that defeat came on their home floor. The Pistons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games off a loss as a favorite and an even better 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 or more points. Take Detroit! 

5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets +

I like the value here with the Rockets here at home in Saturday's big showdown with the Warriors. James Harden returned to action in Houston's last game and the Rockets cruised to a 116-98 win over a Timberwolves team that had been playing very well. The Rockets might not be able to beat the Warriors in a 7-game series, but I like their chances here at home in this 1-game set, as this one simply means more to Houston than it does Golden State. 

Warriors are overvalued just about every time they take the floor, but even more so when they go up against a good team and the numbers back it up. Golden State is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in favor of fading the Warriors. Teams off a road win as a favorite where they failed to cover the spread are just 16-40 (29%) ATS in the month of January over the last 5 seasons. Take Houston! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Sixers -

I like the value here with Philadelphia at home against the Bucks on Saturday. The 76ers are rolling right now. They have won 6 of their last 7 and fresh off a 89-80 win at Boston. They caught a break with the Celtics not having Irving and will catch an even bigger break here, as the Bucks will be without Antetokoumpo and Brogdon.

Milwaukee struggles as it is with the Greek Freak and I just don't see how they are going to be competitive on the road here without him. Not having him on the floor doesn't just hurt their ability to score, but it takes a lot away from their defense. 

76ers are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 when they come in having won 3 of 4 and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after covering 2 or more straight games. This is a team you want to keep riding when they are playing well. Take Philadelphia! 

3* NBA Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Pacers -

I like the value here with Indiana as a short road favorite against the Lakers on Friday. I think we are getting a good price here on the Pacers due to the fact that they are playing on no rest and off a 14-point loss to the Blazers where they scored just 86 points. I think the ugly showing last night will actually help get Indiana motivated for a strong showing tonight. 

More than anything, I think the injury situation for the Lakers is just too much for them to overcome. We know for sure they will be without Ball and Caldwell-Pope and it could get a lot worse. Both Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma are both questionable with injuries. I know they are at home, but I just don't think the Lakers have enough here to keep this competitive. Take Indiana! 

4* NBA Situational ANNIHILATOR on Suns +

I think we are getting some great value here with Phoenix as a near double-digit dog against the Nuggets. Denver just hasn't been able to put it all together this season and a lot of that has to do with the injury to Paul Milsap, which has had him sidelined since late November. He's still out and tonight they aren't expected to have 3rd leading scorer Jamal Murray. I also think we see a tired Nuggets team, as they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. 

Phoenix has lost 3 straight and are just 1-5 in their last 6, but injuries have really played a big part in their struggles. When this team has been healthy or close to, they have been a dangerous team and I think they are more than capable of going into Denver and getting a win. Note that while the Nuggets likely have some tired legs, the Suns are playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take Phoenix! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Rockets OVER

I look for the Rockets and Timberwolves to have no problem eclipsing the mark set here by the books. Only the Warriors rank higher than these two teams in offensive efficiency this season and the Rockets are a team that likes to push the pace and should dictate the tempo here at home, as they will have both James Harden and Chris Paul available. 

While the Rockets have improved defensively this year, they don't figure to be as good on that side of the ball with both Gerald Green and Trevor Ariza not available because of a suspension. It's also worth nothing that last year all 4 meetings saw at least 220 points with both games in Houston combining for at least 141 points. 

OVER is a perfect 8-0 in the Rockets last 8 home games and 9-1 in the Timberwolves last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bulls UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's afternoon showdown between the Heat and Bulls. Miami plays at one of the slower paces in the league. In fact, only the Spurs and Grizzlies play are playing at a slower tempo this season.

Yesterday the Heat played a defensive battle against the Bucks, where they held Milwaukee to just 79 points and the game finished with a mere 176 points and the total was 203.5. With the Bucks on no rest and playing an afternoon game, I look for them to slow down the tempo even more against the Bulls, as they don't want to get in a transition game with Chicago. 

UNDER is 23-12 in the Heat's last 35 road games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and 20-7 in their last 27 off a win by 10-points or less. 

We also have a great system in play. UNDER is 32-8 (80%) going all the way back to 1996 when you have a total is greater than or equal to 200 with a home team off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets UNDER

This might seem like a low total given the recent outcomes of both of these teams, but my money in this situation is on the UNDER. These two teams don't like each other and will be facing off for the third time this season. The more familiar two teams get with one another, the harder it becomes to score in the halfcourt. 

Another factor here is I don't think either side has a lot of gas left in the tank. Both teams will be playing their 3rd game in the span of just 4 days. On top of that, we have a rare early start time for a weekday game with the holiday and I think that only makes it harder on the players to come out and be effective offensively. 

UNDER is 20-9 in the Nets last 29 home games with a total of 210 to 219.5. It's also 10-3 in Brooklyn's last 14 off a SU loss and 7-1 in their last 8 home games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Suns +

I like the value here with Phoenix catching points at home against the Pacers. Indiana is primed for a letdown here off that huge home win over the Cavs, where they rallied from a 22-point deficit to pull out a 97-95 win. The Suns on the other hand are in a prime bounce back spot after a blowout loss at home to the Rockets on ESPN Friday. 

Phoenix is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games off a double-digit loss at home. They are also 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a game where they failed to cover the spread and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss. Pacers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs the Western Conference. Take Phoenix! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Pistons +

I like the value here with the Pistons at basically a pick'em on the road against the Bulls. Chicago had a nice run, but have come back to reality here of late. The Bulls are just 2-5 SU in their last 7 and 2-4 ATS in their last 6.

Detroit continues to be undervalued due to the injury to Reggie Jackson, but come in having covered 3 straight. The most recent being a 114-80 blowout win at Brooklyn as a mere 2-point favorite. I look for the Pistons to build off that impressive showing here and secure a comfortable road win over their division rivals. Take Chicago! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT  on Bucks +

I think we are getting great value here with Milwaukee as decently priced home dog against the Warriors on Friday. Golden State is a huge public team and the squares will be backing them big tonight with this being a nationally televised game on ESPN. That has this line a lot higher than it should be, especially with Steph Curry not expected to play for the Warriors. 

No disrespect to the Bucks, but I also think this is a game Golden State will have trouble matching the intensity of their opponents. The Warriors simply have two monster games on deck. They are at Toronto tomorrow, who is one of the hottest teams in the league and then have their much anticipated game at Cleveland on Monday. Milwaukee on the other hand is going to treat this as close to a playoff game as you will see in the regular season. 

Bucks have been a good team to back when they take a step up in competition. They are 8-2-1ATS in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Milwaukee! 

3* NBA Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Sixers +

I like the value here with the 76ers in Thursday's contest against the Celtics in London. Boston is the better team, but with this game being played overseas, I think it's all about motivation. The Celtics own the best record in the east with a 3-game lead over the Raptors and 5.5-game lead over the Cavs. This is a game they can afford to lose. I just don't think they will be 100% invested in this contest, while I expect Philadelphia to come out looking to make a statement, as this is one of those 'measuring stick' games, where they see how they stack up against one of the elite teams. 

It's also a big revenge game for the 76ers, who have already lost twice to Boston, though they are competitive in each game. Philadelphia has been rolling of late and are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 when they come in having covered the number in 3 or more games. They are also 15-5 ATS in their last 20 after 2 or more consecutive wins and 24-9 in their last 33 when playing a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the 76ers! 

4* NBA 'Magic/Bucks' VEGAS INSIDER on Magic +

I like the value here with Orlando catching double-digits on the road Wednesday at Milwaukee. The public wants nothing to do with this Magic team right now. Orlando is a mere 1-14 SU in their last 15 and a pathetic 3-14 ATS in their last 17. Not to mention they are playing on no rest after a game last night in Dallas, which they lost 99-114 as a 7.5-point dog. 

The books had no choice but to inflate this line on the Bucks and I just can't pass up the value here, especially given that Milwaukee hasn't been playing all that great of late and are in a major lookahead spot with a big game at home against the defending champs (Warriors) on deck this Friday. I think the Bucks go through the motions here and do just enough to get the win. 

Milwaukee is just 4-10-3 in their last 17 games against a team from the east and 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Bucks are also just 17-40 in their last 57 when laying double-digits. Take Orlando! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Blazers +

I like the value we are getting here with Portland as a near double-digit dog against the Thunder. The public won't want anything to do with the Blazers in this one, as star point guard Damian Lillard is out with a calf injury. Most will just assume Portland has no chance of keeping close without Lillard. 

What they will overlook is how his absence takes away some of the focus and motivation for OKC, who were already going to have a tough time getting up for this game with tomorrow's big showdown at Minnesota on ESPN. Don't be surprised if the Thunder just go through the motions here and end up finding themselves sin a much closer game than expected. 

Portland has won 2 straight, both at home, which is important to note, as they are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games after 2 or more home wins under head coach Stotts. Blazers are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games with a total of 200 to 209.5, while the Thunder are a mere 5-17 ATS in their last 22 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Portland! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Cavs 

I like the value here with Cleveland as a road dog against the Wolves on Monday. No question that Minnesota has been playing much better of late, but I think the Cavs are about to go off here now that Isaiah Thomas is healthy an in the starting lineup. Thomas gives Cleveland another prolific scorer who can take over games when James isn't on the floor, which should allow him to rest a little more and be even that much moor effective when he does play. 

In the first two games with Thomas, Cleveland has scored 127 and 131 points, while shooting over 50% from the field in both games. I just think the Cavs have too much fire-power for the Timberwolves, who have to be a bit fatigued here playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Take Cleveland! 

3* NBA Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Lakers -

I like the value here with Los Angeles as a short home favorite agains the Hawks on Sunday. It's been a dreadful run here for the Lakers, but a big reason for the struggles was some key guys being out with injuries. While they may be without Larry Nance (questionable), they are pretty much at full strength and I expect a huge effort here from the Lakers. 

Atlanta is the ideal team for LA to get back on track against. The Hawks are arguably the least talented team in the league and have gone a miserable 3-17 on the road this season, where they are losing by an average of 6.6 ppg. Last time out they managed to score just 89 points in a blowout loss to the Blazers and I don't see things getting any better on this west coast trip. Take Los Angeles! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has the Celtics visiting the Nets. Boston comes in having won 5 straight and they can credit their defense for their most recent run. The Celtics are allowing just 93.2 ppg over this run and are holding opponents to just 37.5% shooting during this stretch. 

On Wednesday they held the Cavs to just 88 points and last night shut down another elite offense, as they held the Timberwolves to just 84 points. I see no reason for Boston to take their foot off the gas defensively against the Nets, but there's a good chance the offense struggles to get going in this one. 

UNDER is 21-8 in the Celtics last 29 after a game where they held their opponent to 90 or fewer points and 25-14 in their last 39 when listed as a road favorite. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Wolves +

I like the value here with Minnesota as a small road dog against the Celtics on Friday. The Timberwolves come in off a 97-98 loss at Brooklyn, but have been playing some of they best basketball here of late. Minnesota is 7-2 over their last 9 and are going to be motivated here off that upset loss to the Nets. 

As for the Celtics, they have won 4 straight and are fresh off a 102-88 win over the Cavs. That game against Cleveland was one they were looking forward to in a big way and I think they have a hard time showing up with that same intensity here against the Timberwolves. Look for Minnesota to want it more tonight. T-Wolves head coach Tom Thibodeau has got his team to thrive in this spot, as he's 38-19 ATS in the last 57 road games he's coached on Friday night. Celtics on the other hand are a mere 10-23 ATS in their last 33 home games after playing 2 straight at home under Brad Stevens. Take Minnesota! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Jazz UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's total between the Jazz and Pelicans. Utah comes in off a 104-101 win against the Cavs at home and will be looking to build on that after a really tough stretch. The Jazz are only giving up 95.5 ppg at home this season, as they have held their opponents to just 43.2% shooting from the floor at home. New Orleans isn't exactly playing well, as they just lost two straight at home against the Knicks and Mavs. 

I think we are get a big time effort from both sides defensively here and each side should have some fresh legs having had the lsat 3 days off. UNDER is 18-7 in the Pelicans last 25 road games against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 45-19 in the Jazz last 64 off a close home win by 3 points or less and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 home games when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Bulls OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Raptors visiting the Bulls. Chicago has been a completely different team here over the last few weeks. They have been a much more explosive offensive team, as they have really spaced the floor well and have a number of guys shooting well from the outside. The Bulls comes in averaging 111.2 ppg over their last 5. 

While the offense has been great, the defense is still a work in progress, as they are giving up 108 ppg during this same stretch. Toronto is one of the more explosive teams in the league, as they average 111.2 ppg on the season. I think both sides have a great shot at eclipsing 110, which should have this flying over the mark set by the books. 

We also have a great system in play. The OVER is 41-16 (72%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total off 200 or more in a game that involves a bad team (Winning % 25% - 40%) off an upset loss as a home favorite and are playing a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA total featuring the Spurs and Knicks. I think we are seeing a much lower total than what we should based on the fact that San Antonio is coming off a game where they scored just 79 points. Prior to that the Spurs had scored 108 or more in 3 straight games and were fresh off a 119 point outburst in New York. 

OVER is also 24-8 in the Spurs last 32 games following a SU loss and 6-1-1 in the Knicks last 8 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 in their last 6 following a SU win. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Kings/Grizzlies UNDER

The simple fact that the Grizzlies just played in a game last night with Golden State that saw 269 combined points and have a total less than 200 tonight says it all. Memphis couldn't have played any better in that game, as they laid it all on the line against the defending champs. They shot 52% from the field and were a ridiculous 15 of 21 (71%) from long distance.

The pace of the game was frantic and I just don't see how they come out with any energy tonight, especially against one of the league's bottom feeders in the Kings. Keep in mind that even with the massive outburst last night, the Grizzlies are still averaging a mere 98.3 ppg this season. They simply let the Warriors dictate the tempo. Memphis on the season ranks dead last in the NBA in pace. The Kings love to play at a slow tempo as well, as they are right behind the Grizzlies at 29th in pace. This has all the makings of a low-scoring game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL DOMINATOR on Nuggets OVER

I look for the 76ers and Nuggets to have little to no problem going OVER the posted total here by the books. Denver features one of the most explosive offenses in the league, especially when they are home. The Nuggets are scoring 111.7 ppg at home, while shooting 49% from the field and 38% from long-distance.

They should have no problem reaching their average at home and I would be shocked if they don't eclipse it. The 76ers are giving up 110.7 ppg on the road and will not have their best defender in Joel Embiid, as he sits this one out to rest. While the 76ers will mis Embiid's scoring, they play at a much faster tempo without him on the floor, as he likes to work a lot of isolations. Denver also isn't a great defensive team, so look for Philadelphia to eclipse 100 points rather easily here. 

Last time out the Nuggets combined for 253 points in their game against the Timberwolves and that sets up a very profitable spot, as the OVER is 10-1 in Denver's last 11 games after a contest with a combined score of 245 or more points. Take the OVER!

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Hawks +

I like the value here with Atlanta catching double-digits against the Raptors on Friday. Toronto has hit a bit of a rough patch, as they have dropped 2 straight, including a loss at Dallas as a 5.5-point favorite. The Hawks have won their last two and have been a covering machine of late. Atlanta has covered 3 straight and 11 of their last 14. 

It's also worth pointing that the Hawks have been a great team to back away from home against high-scoring teams like the Raptors. Atlanta is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams that are scoring 110 or more points/game. 

We also have a strong system in play based on the Raptors 112-78 win at Atlanta the last time these two teams played. Underdogs that are revenging a home loss of 10 or more, who are coming off an upset win as a dog are 82-44 (65%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take Atlanta! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Pacers -

I like the value here with Indiana laying what I feel is a short number at home against the Mavericks. The Pacers simply didn't have it last night in Detroit, as they got annihilated 107-83. The good news for Indiana is the lopsided score allowed them to limit their starters minutes, as not a single one of the five starters played more than 26 minutes. That leaves little doubt in my mind that we are going to get a big time effort here from the Pacers at home. 

Dallas on the other hand comes in off an impressive 98-93 home win over the Raptors as a 6-point dog. I just think it's asking a lot of this team to bounce back from that huge victory with another big effort on the road playing on no rest. Keep in mind the Mavericks haven't won back-to-back games since Thanksgiving and are a miserable 2-14 on the road this season. 

Pacers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs a bad team like Dallas, who has won fewer than 40% of their games and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. Take Indiana! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL DOMINATOR on Pistons UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's NBA action that has two Central Division rivals going at it. Usually these division games are spread over the season, but that's not the case with these two teams. This will actually be the 4th and final meeting between these two sides this season. That familiarity with one another will give the edge to the defenses. It's also worth noting that each of the last two meetings both saw fewer than 208 points. 

Indiana comes in allowing 106.9 ppg on the season and 107.0 ppg on the road, but are only giving up 101.4 ppg against division opponents. I think they can slow down a struggling Detroit offense that has shot 44% or worse from the field in 9 of their last 11 games. Pistons defense has been playing well of late, as the additions of Reggie Bullock and Anthony Tolliver in the starting lineup have given them a boost on that side. We should also get a big effort here from Detroit, as they will have fresh legs playing only their 2nd game in the last 6 days. 

UNDER is 27-11 in the pacers last 38 against a team with a winning record, 4-1 in their last 5 road games and 5-0 in their last 5 division games. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Pistons last 4 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs a division opponent. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Knicks UNDER

These Christmas NBA games have a strong tendency to go UNDER the totals set by the books, as the intensity level gets turned up a notch on the defensive side of the ball. I think that's exactly what we have here in the first game on the board with the 76ers and Knicks. These are two teams that are better defensively than they get credit for and we should see the offenses struggle here with such an early start time. 

UNDER is 10-1 in the Knicks last 11 home games off a road cover where they lost outright as an underdog, UNDER is also 7-3 in the Knicks last 10 home games overall. UNDER is also 6-1 in the 76ers last 7 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 7-2 in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record. Take UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Rockets OVER 

Houston will be without Chris Paul and Clint Cappella tonight and I think it's resulted in some great value here on the OVER in their showdown tonight with the Clippers. The Rockets still have James Harden and are still going to play their same style of jacking up 3-pointers left and right. This team is also use to playing without Paul, so I don't think it's going to affect their scoring output as much as some might think. Keep in mind this is a team that averages 116 ppg at home and will be facing a Clippers team that has been decimated with injuries and just gave up 109 in their last road game against the Spurs. 

Big key here is I don't think the Rockets are going to offer a ton of resistance on the defensive end. Paul is a big spark plug on that side of the ball and Cappella is their best rim protector. Not to mention that Houston likely doesn't want to go all out with their huge showdown against at OKC looming next on Christmas Day. 

OVER is 21-9 in the Clippers last 30 road games when they are playing their 6th or more game in a 10 day span and 22-8 in their last 30 when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Situational UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Hawks +

The betting public is all over the Pacers here as a short road favorite against the Hawks, but I like Atlanta to not only cover but win this game outright. The Hawks come in off an impressive 110-104 win at home over the Heat last time out as a 1.5-point favorite and are now 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games, as they continue to get undervalued by the books.

Indiana is a quality team, but have lost 3 of their last 4 and last time out suffered a crushing 111-112 loss at home to the Celtics, where they basically gave the game away. Now they are on the road playing what will be their 3rd game in 4 days in a major letdown spot. Take Atlanta! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cavs -

This is simply too good a price to pass up on Cleveland. The Cavs have lost just once in their last 19 games, as they are on ridiculous 18-1 run. With this being basically a pick'em with the Cavs laying less than 3, I think you have to roll the dice with Cleveland. They have already beat the Bucks twice this season, including a 116-97 win in their previous visit to Milwaukee. 

The Bucks are also not playing great basketball right now. They have lost 3 straight and in their last home game they lost outright 109-115 to the Bulls as a 8.5-point favorite. I think a big key here is that this game is the only one being nationally televised on NBA TV and that should be enough motivation for LeBron and company to get the win. Take Cleveland! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Nets hosting the Pacers. These two teams have been playing much better defensively here of late.

Brooklyn is allowing 111 ppg on the season, but are only giving up just 105 ppg over their last 5. Indiana is only giving up 103.6 ppg over their last 5. UNDER is 6-1 in the Nets last 7 games and 4-1 in the Pacers last 5.

Indiana has also scored less than 100 in two straight, while Brooklyn is only averaging 96.6 ppg over their last 5. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Celtics -

After going on an absolute tear, Boston has come down to earth a little bit here of late, as they are just 2-2 SU in their last 4 and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5. I think it's led to a great price to back the Celtics at home here against the Jazz. 

Utah has been up and down this season, but are not playing well right now. The Jazz have lost 4 straight with the most recent being a 100-103 loss at Chicago. Prior to that they lost by double-digits to both the Bucks and Rockets. This is now their 3rd straight on the road and while Boston is a legit opponent, I think upcoming games against the Cavs and Rockets are ones they will be more excited for. 

Celtics have also owned bad road teams at home, going 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record. They are also 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 off a straight up win. Take Boston! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Sixers OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Friday's NBA action that has the 76ers hosting the Thunder. Philadelphia comes in off an impressive 118-112 road win over the Timberwolves. The 76ers are now averaging 108.6 ppg, while allowing 108.9 ppg. In Philadelphia's last 5 games, the average final combined score has been 223 points. 

OKC has had all kinds of problems offensively, but I don't think this 76ers defense is going to be good enough to slow them down. I also think we don't see the best from the Thunder defensively off that emotional game on Wednesday at the Pacers, where Paul George made his return to Indiana. Look for these two teams to light up the nets tonight on ESPN. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Clippers UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA action between the Clippers and Wizards. The Clippers just can't seem to stay healthy. Going into tonight's game they will be without Patrick Beverley, Blake Griffin, Danilo Gallinari and Austin Rivers. They will be taking on a Wizards team that has been playing well defensively, as they are only giving up just 98.8 ppg over their last 5, while also holding their opponents to just 43% from the field. 

As for the Wizards, they are coming off a couple of poor showings offensively. First they only managed 98 on the road against the Nets and then in John Wall's return against Memphis, they only finished with 93. Clippers have held each of their last 2 opponents to 95 or less and really have no choice be to try and slow the game way down to stay competitive. I think these two will be lucky to hit 200. Give me the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Warriors OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Warriors hosting the Mavericks. Golden State is still without Steph Curry and aren't expected to have Draymond Green, Zaza Pachulia or Nick Young for this one. I think those players not being available is playing into this short number on the total. The Warriors still have two prolific scorers in Durant and Thompson. I also think the loss of Green hurts them defensively, especially with Pachulia also out. They will have no choice but to play small. 

Dallas isn't a great offensive team, but a big part of why they don't score a ton is they like to play at a slow pace. They will have no choice here but to play with the Warriors tempo on the road and I think we see a slightly higher scoring output from them here. 

OVER is 13-6 in the Warriors last 19 vs teams from the Western Conference and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 against a bad team like Dallas that has won fewer than 40% of their games. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets OVER

I just don't think the books have set the bar high enough for tonight's total with the Rockets and Hornets. Houston is playing out of their minds right now. The Rockets are 21-4 through their first 25 games and have not lost a game with Chris Paul in the lineup. They are doing it behind an offense that averages 115 ppg, shoots 47% from the field (48% at home) and averages 16 made 3-pointers per game. They should have their way here against the Hornets, who come in allowing 107.4 ppg on the road. 

I think we see Houston eclipse 120 and that would mean all we need out of Charlotte is for them to score a measly 100 points. I think give us more than that. The Hornets are coming off a 116 point showing at OKC on Monday, where they hit 53% from the field. I also think we don't see a big effort here from Houston defensively off a big come from behind win over the Pelicans on Monday and a huge game against the Spurs on deck Friday. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Wizards - 

I like the value here with Washington as a short road favorite against the Nets. The Wizards have played better than expected while John Wall has been sidelined and I look for them to have no problem here putting away Brooklyn. One of the reasons Washington has continued to play so well is they are shooting lights out. They finished each of their last two games hitting 50% from the field. 

While the Wizards are clicking offensively, the Nets are struggling with their shot. Brooklyn only managed 89 points on 41% shooting in their last game against the Heat and have hit 44% or worse from the field in 3 of their last 4 overall. 

Wizards are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100+ points and 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss. Nets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a double-digit loss at home and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 at home against a team with a winning road record. Take Washington! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bulls +

I like the value here with Chicago catching a decent number here at home against the Celtics. The Bulls are a miserable 5-20 on the season and it's no surprise given the rebuild they are undergoing. The thing is, some key injuries kept them from being all that competitive early on. They have got quite a few of those guys back and are starting to form some chemistry. Chicago has won 2 straight and are playing with a ton of confidence. 

As good as Boston has been playing, it won't be easy for the Celtics to take this Bulls team all that seriously. This also isn't a great spot for Boston, who just played in Detroit last night and will be playing their 3rd straight on the road in a span of just 4 days. Keep in mind that this is a team that gets their opponents best just about every time they take the floor. Wouldn't be shocked if the Bulls took control early and the Celtics found a way to win late. At the same time, I also wouldn't be surprised if Boston lost this game outright. Take Chicago! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Mavs OVER

Books have set the bar too low for Sunday's total between the Mavs and Timberwolves. Dallas doesn't have great offensive numbers on the season, but are averaging 105.2 ppg over their last 5, which includes a 122-point outburst against the Nuggets. Minnesota's not a good defensive team, as they allow 107 ppg. The Wolves are a good offensive team and are averaging 109 ppg over their last 5. I think these two teams easily hit the 215 mark. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Lakers +

I think the books have made a big error here with Saturday's NBA line on the Lakers and Hornets. Los Angeles shouldn't be getting this many points, as it should be much closer to a pick'em given the circumstances. The Lakers have struggled, but come in off an impressive road win over a good 76ers team and I look for them to build off that with another good showing against Charlotte. 

Hornets are a perfect team to fade here. Not only are they not playing well, but they are in a terrible scheduling spot after last night's overtime game against the Bulls. All 5 of Charlotte's starters logged big minutes and they are a deep team at the moment, as they got a few key guys banged up. I look for the Hornets to struggle to keep up with the fast pace of the Lakers and wouldn't be shocked if this turned into a blowout. Take Los Angeles! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Toronto

I like the value here with the Raptors laying what I feel is a short number on the road against the Grizzlies. Toronto is a team that I think is flying under the radar right now. The Raptors have won 4 straight and are 10-3 in their last 13, yet no one is talking about them. They have been especially good on offense here of late, scoring 120 or more points in 3 straight games. I just don't see the Grizzlies being able to keep pace. Memphis has scored more than 95 points just once in their last 10 games and are a mere 1-12 over their last 13. The Grizzlies deserve to be a much bigger dog here, even with this game on their home court. 

Memphis is just 13-24 ATS in their last 37 against the Eastern Conference and a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games off a loss. Raptors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a win more than 10 points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Toronto! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Lakers +

I'll go against the public here and back the Lakers as a decently priced dog here in Thursday's TNT showdown with the 76ers. LA has lost 5 straight, but it's been a brutal stretch where 3 of the 5 were on the road and the two home games were against the likes of the Warriors and Rockets. I think it has the Lakers way undervalued here against Philadelphia. At the same time, the public is fully on board with this 76ers team now and are now way overvalued because of it. 

These two teams played in LA about a month ago. While the 76ers won that game, it was a mere 6-point win and that was with the Lakers shooting a horrible 38.5% from the field and Philadelphia hitting on 49% of their attempts. I think that we get a big enough effort here from LA to give the 76ers a scare and keep this within the number. 

Last time out Philadelphia lost 101-115 at home to a bad Suns team and the 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take Los Angeles! 

4* NBA Sharp Action ATS NO BRAINER on Spurs -

I'm backing San Antonio here at home against the Heat on Wednesday, as I look for the Spurs to win here by double-digits. San Antonio has gotten off to a respectable 16-8 start given they haven't played a single game with their best player in Kawhi Leonard. The big key here is the Spurs haven't missed Leonard at all on their home floor, where they are a dominant 11-2 SU and 8-4 ATS on the season. 

Miami came in with big expectations after their strong finish last year, but are just 11-12 and come in having lost 3 of their last 4. The Heat will also be without one of their best players in Hassan Whiteside. I just don't think Miami is a team that's capable of competing at less than full strength on the road against a team like the Spurs. Take San Antonio! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Blazers hosting the Wizards. I just feel like we are getting value here due to Washington coming off an absolutely dreadful offensive showing in a 69-116 loss at Utah. That's a Jazz team that's playing some of their best basketball and they just got back their defensive ace in big man Rudy Gobert. Simply put the Wizards didn't have it last night. I think we see a completely different team take the court tonight off that embarrassing loss. Keep in mind they had scored 100+ without John Wall in each of their previous two games against the 76ers and Pistons and will be up against a Blazers team that is giving up 109.4 ppg over their last 5. While the offense should be better, I think we get another poor showing from the Washington defense, as they play in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and just let Utah shoot 57% from the field last night. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Bucks +

I like the value here with Milwaukee catching a decent number here at Boston on Monday. The Celtics are a great team and playing as well as any team to start the year, I think this team is getting a little too much respect and are going to struggle here to put away a red-hot Bucks team that has won 3 straight and 8 of their last 11. Keep in mind that these two teams have already played twice this season and Milwaukee has played them tough both times, including a 108-100 win at Boston. That was back before they made a huge upgrade by trading for Eric Bledsoe. Celtics have been shooting lights out, but are just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 home games after 3 straight games where they made 50% or more of their shots. Take Milwaukee! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Spurs +

I like the value here with San Antonio as an underdog against the Thunder. The Spurs have are quietly off to another great start and come in having won 4 straight and are 10-3 over their last 13. OKC is still trying to figure things out and I just don't think they can be trusted here against an efficient Spurs offense. The Thunder are just 5-9 SU and 3-10-1 ATS over their last 14 games. I'll take the points here, but I think we see the Spurs win outright. Take San Antonio! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks OVER

I don't think the books have set the total high enough for Saturday's NBA action that has two of the league's worst going at it when the Nets host the Hawks. Neither of these teams are any good defensively and I don't see them giving a big effort on that side given the opponent. Brooklyn comes in allowing a staggering 115.4 ppg at home this season, so while the Hawks only average 102.8 ppg, look for them to eclipse that mark easily. Not that on the season the Nets are allowing teams to score close to 7 points more per game than what they average. Atlanta's defense isn't much better, as they are allowing 108.8 ppg and while the defense isn't any good for Brooklyn, this Nets team can put it in the basket, as they enter averaging 110.1 ppg on the season and a healthy 115 ppg at home. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Grizzlies +

The public is going to be all over the Spurs here, as San Antonio just beat these Grizzlies 104-95 as 8-point home favorite on Wednesday, as these two play a home-and-home set. It's really hard to win back-to-back games over the same team in a short period of time and keep in mind that it took 41 points from Aldridge for the Spurs to pull away from the Grizzlies a couple days ago. 

I know Memphis is still without point guard Mike Conley, but they still have some talent and I'm confident they show up with a big time effort here at home in the rematch. It's also worth pointing out the Spurs are just 4-5 on the road compared to 10-2 at home and are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 away from home. Take Memphis! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bucks OVER

With both of these teams coming off great defensive efforts in their last game, I think it's created some great value here with the total and this one going OVER the mark set by the books. Last time out the Bucks held the Kings to just 87 points, while the Blazers limited the Knicks to just 91. 

I just think there's too much offensive fire-power here. Milwaukee has scored 108 or more in each of their first 3 games on their 4-game road trip, while the Blazers have scored at least 103 in each of their last 3. 

OVER is 9-3 in the Bucks last 12 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 against a team from the Western Conference. OVER is also 5-1 in the Blazers last 6 vs a team with a winning record and 8-3 in their last 11 against the Central Division. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Spurs -

The Grizzlies are a complete mess right now. Memphis has lost 8 straight and things got so bad after their most recent loss, a 88-98 loss to the Nets at home, head coach David Fizdale was fired. With starting point guard Mike Conley, arguably their most important player to them having success on the court, still out with a Achilles injury, I just don't see Memphis putting up much of a fight here against the Spurs. 

San Antonio hasn't been as dominant to start the season as years past, as they continue to wait for Kawhi Leonard to make his debut, but are still playing really well at home. Spurs are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS at home, compared to just 4-5 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road. I think this gets ugly in a hurry and the Spurs win here via a blowout. Take San Antonio! 

3* NBA Late Night Total DOMINATOR on Jazz OVER

I like the value here with the total and it going OVER the mark set by the books in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Jazz hosting the Nuggets. Utah simply isn't the same top tier defensive team without big man Rudy Gobert, who is out with a Tibia injury. At the same time, the Jazz have found a new spark plug offensively in rookie Donovan Mitchell. He's a big reason why Utah is putting up 109.8 ppg over their last 5. 

Denver is an ideal team for a high-scoring game, as they like to get up and down the floor and come in averaging 107.8 ppg on the season and 113.6 ppg over their last 5. At the same time, the Nuggets are not a great defensive team. They are allowing 106.5 ppg overall and 110.2 ppg on the road. 

OVER is 12-3 in Utah's last 15 games over a home win by 10 or more and 15-4 in the Nuggets last 19 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Lakers UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's total between the Lakers and Clippers. These two teams don't like each other and we can expect a big time effort from both sides on the defensive side of the ball. That was certainly the case in the first meeting between these two teams this season, as they combined for an even 200 with a total of 219.5. While the books have adjusted the number quite a bit from that contest, I still think it's way too high. 

The Clippers have really struggled offensively of late. In their last 4 games they have scored fewer than 100 points 3 times, twice failing to reach 90. The lone exception was against a horrible Hawks team, where they had 116. Lakers are giving up 107.1 ppg, but have shown flashes of being a decent defensive team and are currently 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

UNDER is 17-5 in the Clippers last 22 home games off a road win and 10-2 in their last 12 vs a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Lakers last 5 on the road and 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in the series. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Nets UNDER 

I like the value here with this high total for Sunday's NBA action that has the Grizzlies hosting the Nets. The UNDER has been a great bet with Memphis at home, as it's 8-2 so far this season. A big reason for that is the Grizzlies aren't a great offensive team and even when going up against a bad defense like Brooklyn tend to struggle to score. Memphis is also a great defensive team at home, as they are only giving up 99.3 ppg. The Nets are averaging nearly 4-points less on the road than they are for the season and I look for them to struggle here. 

UNDER is 13-3 in Brooklyn's last 16 games when they come in having scored 105 or more points in 3 straight games. UNDER is also 23-11 in the Grizzlies last 34 as a home favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Jazz UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for Saturday's non-conference clash between the Bucks and Jazz. Both of these teams are strong defensively and the biggest key here is that neither of these teams like to push the pace. Utah ranks 26th in pace of play and the Bucks are right behind them at 27th. Milwaukee comes in averaging just 97.8 ppg over their last 5 and will be facing a Jazz defense that is only giving up 95.3 ppg at home this season. 

UNDER is 9-2 in the Bucks last 11 against a team with a losing record and 12-4-1 in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. UNDER is also 5-0 in Utah's last 5 when playing a team with a winning record and 9-3 in their last 12 off a straight up win. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Thunder -

I like the value here with OKC laying a short number on the road against the Mavs. It's only a matter of time before the Thunder get this thing figured out with Westbrook, George and Anthony. We a glimpse of their potential earlier this week when they absolutely laid it on the Warriors 108-91. They weren't able to follow it up, losing last night at home to the Pistons 98-99, but I think that puts them in a great spot here to make easy work of a bad Mavericks team. 

These two teams played earlier this month and the Thunder won easily 112-99. Dallas is just 2-11 ATS this season when revenging a loss and 0-7 when revenging a loss where they allowed more than 110 points. Take Oklahoma City! 

4* NBA Situational HEAVY HITTER on Raptors -

I like the value here with Toronto on the money line against the Pacers Friday. The Raptors lost last time out at New York 100-108, snapping a streak of 4 straight wins and covers. I look for them to get right back to their winning ways against Indiana. The Pacers have been playing well, as they come in having won and covered each of their last 4, but are now paying the price with this line at basically a pick'em. Indiana simply isn't on the same level as Toronto and while they likely keep it close, the Raptors should pull away for the win late. Note that each of the Pacers last two wins have come on the road as an underdog and that puts them in a bad spot, as they are just 1-12 ATS in their last 13 off 2 or more upset wins as a road dog. Take Toronto! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs UNDER

No team in the NBA plays at a slower pace than San Antonio and when you combine that with how efficient the Spurs are on the defensive side of the ball, you have a perfect recipe for low-scoring games.

The key here is we are getting value with this total due to the Pelicans struggles defensively, as they come in giving up 110.4 ppg. However, New Orleans has been much better defensively against division opponents, as they are only giving up 98.5 ppg. At the same time, the Spurs aren't a great offensive team right now, as they continue to play without Leonard and Parker and come in averaging a lousy 94.6 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 8-2 in the Pelicans last 10 vs a division opponent and 8-3-1 in their last 12 vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 28-15 in the Spurs last 33 road games off a home win. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Knicks UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's total between the Knicks and Raptors. These two teams just played last Friday and combined for just 191 points with a total of 217. While the books have adjusted the total for the rematch, I don't think it's near enough, as I think the two teams struggle to get to 200 points. 

Toronto is locked in right now on the defensive side of the ball, as they have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 42% or worse shooting. They also don't mess around when facing a division opponent, as they have held their Atlantic rivals to just 91 ppg this season. New York isn't a great defensive team, but better than they get credit for and are clicking on that side of the ball right now, as they are giving up just 97.6 ppg over their last 5. 

UNDER is 7-3 in the Raptors last 10 division games and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 2 days of rest. UNDER is also 20-7-1 in New York's last 28 against a team from the Eastern Conference and 4-1 in their last 5 vs at team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER!