4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Cavs - 

I have no problem laying double-digits on Cleveland at home in Game 1 against the Raptors. Toronto is still without starting center Jonas Valanciunas and were fortunate that Miami lost their starting center in Whiteside in the previous series.

The Raptors are also going to find it hard to get up and match the intensity of the Cavaliers in this game. Toronto just laid it all on the line in Game 7  against the Heat on Sunday and 1-day just isn't enough to recover from a series like that.

Cleveland on the other hand has been off since 5/15 and that kind of rest has proven to be a big advantage in the postseason. Teams coming off a sweep who have had 5 or more days of rest against an opponent that is playing on 1 day of rest are 18-5-1 ATS the last 24 times this scenario has come up. Take the Cavaliers! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors - 

This might seem like a lot of points for the Warriors to be laying against a Thunder team that just closed out their series against the Spurs with 3 straight wins, including a 113-99 blowout win to clinch a spot in the Western Conference Finals. At the same time, Golden State didn't dominate the Blazers like many expected, especially once Curry returned to action, as they trailed by double-digits in the majority of the games at the half. 

The key thing to keep in mind is that Portland had the ability to play small and matchup with the Warriors, something I don't think Oklahoma City is capable of doing. At the same time, the Thunder really took advantage of a aging Spurs team, who really struggled when forced to play on more than 1-day of rest. The Thunder aren't going to be able to use that up-tempo in their favor here against the Warriors, who thrive in a fast pace. 

Let's also not forget Golden State swept the season series 3-0 and won both home games in the season series by at least 8 points. Warriors are 21-9 in their last 30 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and 11-4 in their last 15 ATS when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors -

I've cashed in on each of the last 4 games in this series after successfully backing Miami in Game 6 at home. This time it's the Raptors who are showing the value, as they have the big advantage playing Game 7 at home. If you have followed the NBA Playoffs over the years, you know that the home team has dominated Game 7. 

I was actually surprised that the Heat were able to win Game 6 with DeRozan and Lowry combining for 59 points. The exact same amount the duo put up in Toronto's 99-91 win at home in Game 5. The good news is, these two are finally starting to play up to their potential and now the Raptors should get more out of their role players on their home floor. Toronto should also perform better on the defense side of the floor, as they will feed off the energy of the home crowd. 

The Heat are just 3-13 ATS in their last 19 when they come into a game having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat -

I have successfully cashed each of my last 3 picks in this series and I'm confident we will make it 4 for 4 with the Heat tonight. Miami nearly erased an early double-digit deficit in Game 5 and I just don't trust the Raptors in a close out situation. It's a spot that Toronto has not fared well in the past. On the other side, Miami has one of the best closers in the game in Wade and will be playing at home in a do or die situation. 

The other big positive here is the Raptors finally got a solid performance from both Lowry and DeRozan in the same game. The two combined for 59 points on 20 of 47 shooting. That almost wasn't enough on their home floor and I'm willing to bet the duo doesn't play as well on the road in Game 5. 

The Heat are 21-12 ATS in their last 33 after playing their previous game as a dog, 10-2 ATS in their last  12 at home and the Raptors are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Miami! 

4* NBA Playoffs ATS No Brainer on Spurs - 

The Thunder surprised just about everyone but themselves when they went on the road and beat the Spurs for a second time in the series on their home floor. Oklahoma City now has a 3-2 lead and a chance to close out the series on their home floor tonight. I don't think that's going to happen. San Antonio is not a team that's going to panic facing elimination. 

The Spurs could have very easily won this series already. Those two losses at home came by a combined 5 points. The Thunder have won the last two in the series behind a couple of dominant performances from Durant and Westbrook and neither one was easy. I look for the Spurs to come up with a gameplan to not only slow OKC's two stars, but get their own offense going. San Antonio shot just 39.8% from the field in the last game and only lost by 4. 

Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 revenging a straight up loss as a favorite of 7 or more and the Thunder are just 10-21 in their last 31 with a line of +3 to -3. Take San Antonio! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors - 

I really like the Raptors here in Game 5 at home. Toronto shot just 39.3% from the field in Game 4 and took Miami to overtime. Miami on the other hand shot 45% and needed 30 points from Wade to secure the win. I know the Raptors didn't take full advantage of Whiteside's absence in Game 4, but I look for that to change at home. 

The fact that Lowry and DeRozan were a combined 6 of 28 from the field on the road and the Raptors still almost won the game, tells me that Toronto is the far better team when these two play close to their potential. The loss of Whiteside makes it hard for Miami to get easy looks inside and they aren't a great 3-point shooting team, forcing them to take a lot of contested 2-point jump shots. His absence will be felt even more on the road, as I look for Toronto to win here comfortably. Take the Raptors! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs - 

This might seem like a big number to lay on the Spurs in Game 5, but my money is on San Antonio not only winning the game but doing so in impressive fashion. The Spurs didn't play great in either game at OKC, but still managed to get a split. They now return home, where they have lost twice all season. I know one of those was against the Thunder in Game 2, but I believe that makes even less likely they lose in Game 5. 

You also have to keep in mind that the Thunder are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. This is also a bit of a letdown spot for OKC, as they were basically in a do or die situation needing to win Game 4 to keep any hope of winning the series alive. 

Spurs are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 when tied in a playoff series and 19-9 in their last 28 when revenging a home loss. We also see that home teams favored by 7 or more with a series tied 2-2 are 11-4 ATS dating back to 2015. Take San Antonio! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat - 

Miami is showing great value here at home in a must-win Game 4. The Heat opened the series with a  win in Toronto, but lost in overtime in Game 2 and then dropped the first matchup on their home floor in Game 3. 

The big news going into Game 4 is both teams will be without their big men inside. Toronto's Jonas Valanciunas is done for the series and Miami's Hassan Whiteside is doubtful with a knee injury. I believe Miami is more equipped to play well without their big men, especially on their home floor. Valanciunas has arguably been the Raptors most consistent player in the postseason and he's certainly played a big role in Toronto's 2-1 series lead. The Raptors were +41 with him on the floor in the first 3 games and -39 when he was on the bench. 

Motivation is also heavily in Miami's favor here. The Heat absolutely have to win this game, while the Raptors are poised for a letdown after regaining home court. I see a very similar scenario to Game 4 in Toronto's opening series against the Pacers. After losing Game 1 at home, the Raptors won both Game 2 and Game 3 before getting embarrassed by 17 in Game 4 at Indiana. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs/Thunder UNDER

I really like the value we are getting here with the UNDER in Game 4 between the Spurs and Thunder. Both teams are going to come out and lay everything on the line to bring home a victory. San Antonio understands what going up 3-1 means and OKC knows they have to win here and tie it up at 2-2 if they want any chance of advancing to the next round. 

Each of the last two games in the series have finished below the mark set for this matchup and I believe we are going to see the lowest scoring game of the series tonight. Greg Popovic has now had 3 games to get a feel for what OKC wants to do offensively and I look for the Spurs to make life miserable for the Thunder offensively. At the same time, OKC is more than capable of keeping the Spurs offense in check, which they have shown the last 2 games, holding San Antonio under 43% shooting from the field. 

UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in the Thunder's last 8 home games when playing only their 4th game in 10 days and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 14-2 in the Spurs last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 5-1 in their last 6 off a cover. It's also worth noting the UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings overall between these two teams in OKC. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Raptors + 

*Analysis Will Be Posted Shortly* 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs - 

My money is one the Spurs as a small road favorite in Game 3. San Antonio shockingly lost Game 2 at home after embarrassing the Thunder by 32 points in Game 1. Winning on the road at OKC is no easy task for most teams, but I'm confident the Spurs will rebound with one of their best performances after how poorly they played in Game 2. 

Keep in mind that the Thunder shot 48% from the field, while the Spurs connected on just 42.6% of their attempts and San Antonio still nearly won the game. The Spurs missed a lot of easy shots around the basket early in that game and that's simply not going to happen again. At the same time, the Thunder rely too much on Durant and Westbrook. If either of those two have an off game, this one will get ugly in a hurry. The two combined for 57 in Game 2 and still almost lost. 

The Spurs are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 when tied in a playoff series, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by 3 points or less and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a loss as a favorite of 7 o more points. Take San Antonio! 

5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Month on Raptors -

Just like they did in their opening series against the Pacers, I look for Toronto to bounce back from a Game 1 loss at home with a convincing win in Game 2. The Raptors lost 90-100 in Game 1 against Indiana, only to respond with a 98-87 win in Game 2. Toronto has not lost consecutive games in the postseason to this point and I don't expect that to change. 

This is also a big letdown game for Miami. The Heat pulled off a overtime win in Game 1, getting the split in Toronto that they desperately wanted. Prior to that they laid it all on the line in a Game 7 against the Hornets. We have seen the Heat lay a couple eggs on the road against Charlotte and I'm expecting far from their best effort tonight. 

Miami is just 10-21 ATS in their last 31 after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 11-24 in their last 35 off a road win. The Heat are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks +

The Hawks are showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Cavaliers in Game 2 of this Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup. Atlanta fell behind big early in Game 1, but were able to rally to take the lead in the 4th quarter before Cleveland pulled away for a 11-point win. 

I believe the Hawks figured something out in the 2nd half and will be able to carry that over to Game 2 tonight. We also can count on a max effort here from Atlanta, as they try to avoid going down 0-2 in the series. Cleveland is due for a letdown in the postseason, as they have now won 5 straight after sweeping the Pistons. 

Hawks are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 when revenging 2 straight losses where they allowed 100+ points, while the Cavaliers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after a win by 10+ points and 10-19 ATS in their last 29 after 3 or more consecutive wins. Take Atlanta! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Blazers +

I like the value we are getting with Portland as a double-digit road dog against the Warriors in Game 2. The Blazers failed to cover as a 9.5-point dog in Game 1, losing by 12. Portland looked shell-shocked in the 1st quarter of that game, getting outscored by 20 points (17-37). After the opening quarter the Blazers actually outscored the Warriors by 8 points. 

With their backs against the wall and Golden State potentially poised for a letdown with the potential return of Steph Curry for Game 3, I look for Portland to give the Warriors all they can handle in Game 2. While it's unlikely the Blazers can pull off the upset, it's not out of the question. Just look at the turnaround the Thunder had in Game 2 at San Antonio after getting embarrassed by 30-points in Game 1. 

Portland is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after a SU loss by more than 10 points and we have a big time system in play favoring a fade of the Warriors in this spot. Home favorites who have won more than 75% of their games are just 15-41 (27%) ATS when leading in a playoff series against a team with a winning record. Take the Blazers!

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Hawks/Cavs UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for tonight's total for Game 1 of Eastern Conference semifinals between the Hawks and Cavaliers. Atlanta held the Celtics to just 93.8 ppg in their opening series, while the Cavaliers limited the Pistons to just 95.0 ppg. 

Not a huge surprise as these were two of the top defensive teams during the regular season. Cleveland finished 4th in points allowed at 98.3 and the Hawks were 6th at 99.2. Both also rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency with Atlanta 2nd and Cleveland 10th. It's also important to note that the Cavs are a team that are capable of playing much better defense than what they showed over an 82-game regular season and the Hawks improved greatly on defense in the 2nd half. 

These two teams are also very familiar with one another, as they played in last year's Eastern Conference Finals. Cleveland ended up sweeping that series, but the first two games of the series featured 185 and 176 combined points.

UNDER is 9-1 in Cavs last 10 when playing 5 or less games in 14 days and 7-0 in the Hawks last 7 road games after covering 2 straight as a favorite. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors - 

Indiana was able to avoid elimination with a 101-83 win at home in Game 5, but I don't think there fortunes will carry over to Game 7. Home court in Game 7 has proven to be a huge advantage over the years, especially when that team is coming off a loss.

Going back to the 2002-03 season, the home team is 15-8 (65.2%) ATS in Game 7 after losing the previous game. It's also worth noting that each time Indiana has managed to pull out a win the Raptors have answered with a victory in the next game. 

Indiana on the other hand is a mere 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win by more than 10 points. The Pacers are also 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games after 5 straight games where they held their opponent to 42% or worse from the field. Toronto is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100+ points. Take the Raptors! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Spurs - 

San Antonio and Oklahoma City both made easy work of their opponents in the first round. The Spurs swept the Grizzlies while the Thunder needed just 5 games to send Dallas packing. I believe that has kept this spread low enough that it's worth laying the points with San Antonio at home. 

The Spurs finished a dominant 40-1 on their home floor during the regular season and added two more victories against Memphis. Both coming via huge blowouts. San Antonio beat the Grizzlies by 32 in Game 1 and 26 in Game 2. The Spurs understand the importance of getting a series started off with a win and protecting their home court advantage and I look for them to do just that against the Thunder. 

Oklahoma City was able to get away with their style of play against the Mavericks, relying almost exclusively on Durant and Westbrook to carry the load offensively. That's not going to work against the Spurs, who are playing exceptional on the defensive side of the ball. San Antonio also has the weapons to pick apart the Thunder's defense. I believe it will take a near perfect performance from OKC's two stars just to keep this game close. 

Thunder are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after playing 5 straight games as a favorite and are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games in Game 1 of a playoff series as a dog. Spurs are 14-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 19-5 ATS in their last 24 during Game 1 of a playoff series after closing out their previous series with 2 or more consecutive wins. Take San Antonio! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors/Pacers UNDER

These two teams will be facing off for the sixth time in the last 14 days and needless to say they are very familiar with what each other at this point. Each of the first 4 games finished UNDER the total, including both games in Indiana, but the two did go over the mark in Game 5 at Toronto. I believe that has created some value here on the UNDER. 

This is a crucial game for both teams. Indiana is facing elimination on their home floor, while Toronto wants to avoid another playoff collapse. Keep in mind two years ago they had a 3-2 lead against the Nets and proceeded to lose Game 6 in Brooklyn and Game 7 at home. Even with a game to play with, Toronto is going to come out like they are facing elimination as well. Both teams are going to lay everything they have on the defensive side of the ball. 

UNDER is 13-4 in the Pacers last 17 home games after covering the spread in their last contest and 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 60 or more points in the 1st half of their previous game. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 after scoring 100+ in their previous game and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Hawks - 

The home team has won all 5 games to this point, but I expect that trend to come to an end in Game 6 at Boston. Atlanta laid it on the Celtics in a 110-83 home win in Game 5 and the Hawks can smell blood with a 3-2 series lead. 

Atlanta has clearly been the more impressive team to this point. They have had at least a 15 point lead in 4 of the 5 games, including a 16-point lead in Game 4 at Boston, which they ended up losing in overtime. The key here is the health of the Celtics, who are without Avery Bradley, arguably their best two-way player. Now they have to lay with a less than 100% Isaiah Thomas, who re-aggravated a sprained left ankle in the 4th quarter of Game 4. 

Home underdogs that are revenging a loss where they scored less than 85 points against an opponent off a win by 20 or more are just 46-82 (36%) ATS since 1996. Hawks as a team are 33-19 ATS in their last 52 off a home win by 10 or more points and the Celtics are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games after playing 2 straight as a dog. Take Atlanta! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat - 

The Heat and Hornets head to Game 5 in Miami with the series tied 2-2. The Hornets made this a series by taking both Games 3 and 4 at home, but are now headed back to Miami where they got destroyed in the first two games of the series. The Heat won 123-91 in Game 1 and 115-103 in Game 2. 

Just watching this series you can see just how much better both of these teams play on their home floor. The fact that Miami is a bigger favorite in Game 5 than they were in either Game 1 or Game 2 after losing the last two really speaks volumes to that. This is also a big letdown spot for Hornets, as they put everything they had on the line at home to even up the series. I see this is a very similar scenario to last night's Game 5 between the Hawks and Celtics. 

Miami is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after a loss by 6 points or less, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games overall and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the Heat! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf Playoffs Game of the Month on Hawks - 

The home team has won all 4 meetings in the series to this point and I don't expect that trend to come to an end in Game 5 in Atlanta on Tuesday. While the series is tied 2-2, I've been much more impressed with the Hawks to this point. In both games in Atlanta, the Hawks jumped out early leads. After letting Boston back in Game 1, they kept their foot on the gas in Game 2 with a 17-point victory. 

Another key factor to keep in mind is that the Celtics used up a lot of energy in winning both of those games at home and are now primed for a letdown in Game 5. Let's also not forget that Boston is still without a huge piece to the puzzle in Avery Bradley. 

It's also important to note that while Atlanta lost both games on the road, they could have easily won either of those games. The big problem for them was their 3-point shooting. They were just 25% from long distance in Game 3 and 28% in Game 4. I look for the outside shot to fall at a much higher frequency at home. 

Boston is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after 5 straight games holding their opponents to 42% or worse from the field and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Atlanta on the other hand is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6. Take the Hawks! 

4* NBA Playoffs Situational ATS Annihilator on Raptors - 

Indiana has surprised a lot of people by making this a series, but I'm still confident the Raptors are going to take care of business and advance to the next round. It starts tonight with a must-win in Game 5 at home with the series tied 2-2. 

Toronto lost by 17 at Indiana in Game 4, but that wasn't a huge surprise given they used up a lot of energy to take both Game 2 and Game 3. Both of those wins came by at least 11 points and I look for another blowout win in Game 5. The Raptors simply didn't shoot well in Game 4, as they shot just 36.5% from the field and were a miserable 8 for 30 (27%) from long distance. I expect a much better shooting performance at home tonight. 

Pacers are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 off a SU win by more than 10 points and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Toronto is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home. Take the Raptors! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Mavericks + 

Dallas is showing great value here as a near 15-point underdog in Game 5 against the Thunder. While it's unlikely the Mavericks will pull off another huge upset in OKC (won 85-84 as 14-point dog in Game 2), I expect them to keep this game much closer than the number listed. 

Oklahoma City just won both games in Dallas to take a commanding 3-1 series lead and could let their guard down here. At the same time, we can expect an all out effort from the Mavericks, as they try to fight off elimination. Getting 2-days off prior to this game is huge for Dallas, who lacks depth with all their injuries and it also gives head coach Rick Carlisle time to make some adjustments, something he's well known for in the postseason. 

Mavericks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games after playing 2 straight as a home dog, 13-5 ATS in their last 18 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Dallas!

5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Celtics UNDER 

I really like the value here with the total in Game 4 between the Hawks and Celtics. These two teams combined for 214 points in Game 3, easily eclipsing the total of 203.5. There's a couple of factors that led to the high-scoring affair. Boston switched up their style of play and went with a smaller lineup, which I believe caught the Hawks off guard. Atlanta was also in a prime letdown spot in terms of defensive intensity with a 2-0 series lead. 

I look for the Hawks to make the adjustments to the Celtics new look and to come out with a lot more motivated than what we saw in Game 3. Atlanta isn't going to let Isaiah Thomas go off for 40+ points in back-to-back games. Let's not forget that the Hawks held Boston to just 72 points in the previous game and held them under 40% shooting in both Game 1 and Game 2. 

UNDER is 19-6 in the Hawks last 25 when leading in a playoff series, 11-4 in their last 15 games in the first round of the playoffs and 5-0 in their last 5 after failing to cover the spread last time out. UNDER is also 10-1 in the Celtics last 11 after covering their previous game and 10-3 in their last 13 after scoring 100+ points. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hornets - 

The Hornets season is on the line when they take on the Heat in Game 3 at home. Charlotte lost both games in Miami and simply can't afford to fall behind 0-3 in the series.

The Heat couldn't have played any better than they did in the first two games of the series at home, but were not nearly as strong on the road during the regular season. Charlotte on the other hand went a very respectable 30-11 at home.

Miami is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after winning 4 of their previous 5 games and 9-20 in their last 29 after covering the spread in 2 straight. The Hornets are 18-9 ATS in their last 27 revenging a road loss, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Take Charlotte -2! 

4* NBA Playoffs Situational ATS Annihilator on Pistons + 

With the series shifting to Detroit and the Cavaliers holding a 2-0 series lead, I really like the value here with the Pistons catching 5-points at home in Game 3.

Detroit was right there with an excellent shot to win Game 1, but came up short. In Game 2 the Cavaliers caught fire and connected on 20 3-pointers. With Cleveland in line for a bit of a letdown and the Pistons season on the line, I look for Detroit to keep this game close and wouldn't be shocked if they won it outright. 

The Cavaliers are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 road games after scoring 100+ points in 5 straight games, while the Pistons are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games after losing 3 of their last 4 and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Take Detroit! 

4* NBA Playoffs Late Night ATS No Brainer on Rockets + 

Houston returns home down 0-2 and will be fighting for their playoff lives in game 3 at home. The key here is that Golden State doesn't feel threatened by the Rockets and will likely make the call to rest Curry another game to ensure he's 100% for the upcoming series against likely the Clippers and Spurs. 

Houston knows that this is their chance to make this a series and that a loss here all but ends their season. The Rockets were much more competitive in Game 2 with Curry sidelined. After losing by 26 in the series opener, they lost by just 9. Returning home should be enough for Houston to keep this game close and potentially pull off the upset. Keep in mind this is also a bit of a letdown spot for Golden State with a comfortable 2-0 series lead. Take Houston! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors - 

The Raptors are showing great value here as at basically a pick'em on the road in Game 3 of their series against the Pacers. Indiana is getting a lot of respect for winning Game 1 on the road by 10-points, but I just don't see the Pacers making this a series going forward. Toronto is going to come out with a huge sense of urgency to get back home court advantage. 

Winning on the road wasn't a problem for the Raptors during the regular season. Toronto went 24-17 away from home, which was nearly as good as the Pacers home record of 26-15. In the first two games Indiana has got a near flawless performance from Paul George, while the Raptors haven't got near the production they expect from their backcourt duo of DeRozan and Lowry. I look for those two to breakout of their slump and Toronto to continue to their dominance inside. The Raptors have outscored the Pacers 88-56 in the paint and out rebounded them 96-71. Take Toronto! 

4* NBA Late Night ATS No Brainer on Blazers +

Things couldn't have gone much worse for Portland in their 95-115 loss in Game 1. The Trail Blazers shot a mere 39.8% from the field and just 10 of 30 from behind the 3-point line. The Clippers on the other hand shot 53.8% from the field. I look for things to even out and Portland to put up a much better fight in Game 2. 

Portland is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games after failing to cover the spread in their last game and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 after a blowout loss by 20 or more points. Clippers on the other hand are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when playing on 2 days of rest and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 after scoring 100+ points in 3 straight games. Take Portland! 

4* NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total Annihilator on Celtics/Hawks OVER

The Hawks and Celtics went UNDER the total in Game 1, as they combined for 203 points with a total posted at 206.5. The books have adjusted slight for Game 2, but I think that's a mistake. These two teams combined for 203 points with neither team shooting well from the field. 

Boston only hit 36.3% (37-102) from the field, while the Hawks weren't much better at 40.7% (35-86). Atlanta was also a miserable 18.5% (5-27) from behind the 3-point line, well below their season average of 35.2% at home. I look for both teams to come out and shoot the ball much better and with the tempo they are playing at, this game should fly over the total. 

Keep in mind that Boston lost one of their best defensive players in Avery Bradley, which is a bigger loss than people think. It's also worth noting that in the previous 3 meetings during the regular season these two teams combined for at least 210 points. A mark I see them eclipsing tonight. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors -

The key in the NBA playoffs is to not overreact to what happened in the previous game. Toronto lost at home in Game 1 by double-digits (90-100) as a 7-point favorite, which is going to have a lot of people looking to take Indiana in Game 2. I'm looking the other direction here, as the Raptors are going lay it all on the line to avoid falling behind 0-2 in the series. 

It's also important to note that this play falls in a profitable NBA playoffs zig-zag system, which has us backing home teams off a home loss, who won more than 60% of their games and lost by more than 3-points in the previous matchups. Teams in this spot who are favored by 6 to 9 points are 47-26-2 (64.4%) ATS in the playoffs dating back to 2002. 

We also see that the Pacers are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 off a upset win as a road dog, while the Raptors are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games when playing against a team with a winning record. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Playoffs ATS No Brainer on Pistons + 

Detroit is showing great value here as a double-digit dog against the Cavaliers in their series opener. The Pistons played Cleveland tough during the regular season. They won 3 of the 4 meetings and the lone loss came by just 8 points. I'm not expecting Detroit to win this game, but I do think they are going to be able to keep it well within the number posted. 

The Pistons are simply built well to take on a team like the Cleveland, as they have the inside presence with Drummond to keep James from repeatedly attacking the rim for easy baskets. The Pistons also have the balance offensively to give the Cavaliers trouble on the defensive side of the ball. 

Cleveland went just 4-12 ATS against division opponents this season, winning by an average of just 2.2 ppg. Detroit on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 against a division opponent. Take the Pistons! 

5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Vegas Insider on Hawks -

I really like the value here with the Hawks laying a very reasonable number at home against the Celtics. Atlanta really came on strong at the end of the year and I look for that momentum to carry over into the postseason. Boston is a quality team, but are not a great road team and playing away from home in the playoffs is no easy task. 

Another big key here for me is playoff experience and Atlanta clearly has the edge in that department after advancing to the conference finals a year ago. The Hawks are also playing exceptional on the defensive side of the ball, especially after the All-Star break. You here a lot about the Spurs and how good they are on defense. The Hawks had the best defense efficiency rating after the break in the league at 96.8 with San Antonio second at 99.3. 

Atlanta is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team with a losing road record. It's also important to note that the Hawks were just 2-6 ATS in their final 8 games, which is helping the number here. The key is that they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6. Take Atlanta! 

4* NBA Playoffs Early Bird Total Annihilator on Pacers/Hawks UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring game in tomorrow's series opener between the Raptors and Pacers. The fact that both of these teams average right around 102.0 ppg, will have the public backing the over with this low total, but you can't overreact to regular season numbers. 

The playoffs are a completely different than the regular season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The intensity is simply taken to a whole new level and while both teams are good offensively, these are also two teams that no how to get after it on the defensive side of the ball. 

UNDER is 12-4 in the Pacers last 16 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 9-1 in their last 10 after scoring 60+ points in the 1st half of their last game and 6-2 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. UNDER is also 9-3 in the Raptors last 12 against the Eastern Conference and 24-15 in their last 39 after scoring 100+ in two straight games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Blazers/Nuggets OVER

The books have simply set the mark too low on tonight's total between the Blazers and Nuggets. While Portland is still fighting for playoff position, they are ensured that they won't finish worth than 6th. That's huge, as it means they will avoid having to face the Spurs and Warriors in the first round. 

The key here is the Blazers haven't been playing a whole lot of defense of late, even with them fighting for position. Portland has allowed at least 106 points in 4 straight games and 100+ in 11 of their last 14 overall.

I look for there woes to continue here against the Nuggets. While Denver only managed 84 in their last game, it came against one of the best defensive teams in the Jazz. Prior to that the Nuggets had scored 100+ in 3 straight. Defensively the Nuggets have allowed 100+ in 13 of their 14 and are giving up 105 ppg on the season. 

OVER is 10-2 in the Blazers last 12 after failing to cover the spread in 2 straight games and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 7-3 in the Nuggets last 10 road games and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. OVER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Grizzlies +

The Grizzlies are showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Clippers. Memphis is still fighting for playoff position, while Los Angeles is locked into the No. 4 seed. The Grizzlies currently sit in sixth, 1/2-game back of Portland, but are also just 1/2-game ahead of seventh place Dallas. Avoiding the bottom two spots would keep them from having to play the Spurs in the first round. 

The Clippers aren't going to come out and say it, but you have to believe LA would rather face Memphis in the first round than the Trail Blazers. The Grizzlies don't figure to be much of a threat in the postseason, as they have lost both Conley and Gasol for the rest of the season. The Clippers also have no reason to be motivated for this game and their focus now is on getting as healthy as possible for the playoffs. 

Grizzlies are 23-13 ATS off a SU loss this season, while the Clippers are just 14-27 ATS in their last 41 home games off 3 or more consecutive wins and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after making 50% or more of their 3-point shots in their previous game. Take Memphis! 

5* NBA Vegas ATS No Brainer on Jazz - 

The Jazz are showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Mavericks tonight. While both teams are still fighting to secure one of the final two playoff spots in the west. Dallas currently sits in 7th place, 1-game ahead of the Jazz in 8th and 2-games in front of the Rockets in 9th. 

I look for the Jazz to be the more motivated team at home in this one, as the Mavericks have some breathing room and get to host the Spurs in their finale, which will likely have San Antonio resting most of their star players. You also have to factor in that Dallas could be without both Barea and Williams, as they are both listed as questionable. 

Utah is also the fresher team here. This will be just the 3rd game in the last 6 days for the Jazz, while the Mavericks will be playing their 3rd in the last 4 days and 2nd of a back-to-back road set. Jazz are 16-6 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and it's worth noting they won the previous meeting 121-119 in Dallas, as the Mavericks are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 revenging a close loss of 3-points or less. Take the Jazz! 

5* No Limit NBA Top Play on Suns - 

Phoenix is showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Pelicans. The public will be inclined to back the Pelicans at home, as the Suns aren't exactly a team most feel comfortable laying points with on the road. However, the situation here heavily favors Phoenix, which is why the books have them listed as the favorite.

New Orleans has basically lost everyone who they expected to play a major role this year to some kind of injury. The reserves and free agent signings have continued to play hard down the stretch, but this is one spot where I don't see the Pelicans being interested at all. New Orleans will be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 4th in the last 5 days overall. They won last night in LA 110-102, which adds to the likelihood of a letdown here against a bad team like Phoenix. Take the Suns! 

5* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Grizzlies + 

Memphis is showing great value here in what's an important game for both teams. While the Grizzlies have secured a playoff spot, they are still fighting for positioning. Right now Memphis is tied with Portland for 5th, which would have them playing the Clippers in the first round. If they end up 6-8 they will have to play either the Thunder, Spurs or Warriors. 

Dallas has won 5 straight to put them in a great position to make the playoffs, as they are 1-game ahead of 8th place Utah and 2.5 ahead of 9th place Houston. The recent run has been impressive, but I believe it has them overvalued here. Dallas has had to play at a much slower pace since losing Parsons and Williams, which I think plays into the strength of the Grizzlies. It also makes the 6.5-points that much more valuable, as this doesn't figure to be a high-scoring game. 

Memphis is 27-7 ATS in their last 34 off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog and are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 road games off an upset win as a home dog. Take Memphis +6.5! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider *BEST BET* on Kings - 

Sacramento is actually showing great value here as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Timberwolves. This is the ultimate letdown spot for Minnesota, as they pulled off a huge upset in Tuesday's 124-117 overtime win at Golden State, where they overcame a 17-point deficit. There's just no way the Timberwolves are able to come close in bringing that same kind of energy here on the road against the Kings. 

Sacramento has been hit or miss of late but I look for them to come out motivated here off a loss at home last time out. The Kings also should have plenty of motivation to avoid getting swept by Minnesota in the season series. If the Timberwolves come out flat, this game could get way out of hand early. Lay the Points! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Mavs +

Dallas is showing great value here as a home dog against the Rockets. In fact, my numbers suggest that the Mavericks should be the ones playing points. Dallas comes into this game having won 4 straight, but just aren't getting the respect they deserve due to the fact that they are dealing with injuries. Clearly the books are overreacting, as the Mavericks have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. 

Houston has been inconsistent all season and that's been the case of late. The Rockets are just 3-5 over their last 8, but are getting some love here after beating the Thunder 118-110 as a 3.5-point road dog. Key thing to keep in mind is OKC has nothing to play for right now (all but locked into the No.3 seed). 

This is basically a playoff game for these two teams and with that I give a big edge to the home team. Dallas currently sits 1/2-game ahead of 8th place Utah, but are just 1-game ahead of 9th place Houston. A win here could push the Mavericks 2-games up on the Rockets with just 4 to play.  Take Dallas! 

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Suns/Hawks UNDER

I believe the books have set the bar way too high for tonight's total between the Suns and Hawks. Phoenix comes into his game really struggling to get anything going offensively. The Suns have failed to score 100 points in 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 overall. 

Their offensive woes figure to continue against the Hawks, who are going to come out extremely motivated off back-to-back losses to the Raptors and Cavaliers. Atlanta is currently sitting tied with Boston for the No. 3 seed in the east, but are just a 1/2 game ahead of both Miami and Charlotte. Homecourt is something the Hawks desperately want in the first round and getting the No. 3 seed ensures they won't see the Cavaliers until the conference finals. 

UNDER is 7-3 in the Hawks last 10 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 at home against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 21-8 in the Suns last 29 after allowing 100 or more in 5 straight games and 10-2 in their last 12 road games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game. UNDER is also a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings of this series. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Pacers -

The Pacers are showing great value here as a mere 4-point favorite against the Knicks. Indiana comes into this game off an easy 115-102 win at Philadelphia yesterday and I look for them to carry over that momentum with another easy win today. The Pacers can't afford to lose to a team like New York right now, as they are sitting in the 8th and final playoff spot in the east, just two games up on the Bulls. 

New York comes into this game off an impressive 105-91 win at home against the Nets without Porzingis, which is definitely keeping this line low. What gets overlooked is the big advantage the Knicks had in that game with the Nets playing their 4th game in 5 days and fresh off a game the night before against the Cavaliers. Brooklyn simply didn't show up to play. 

There's simply not enough talent on the roster for the Knicks to compete with a motivated Pacers team without Porzingis. They also are without point guard Jose Calderon. New York is a mere 5-16 ATS in their last 21 as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points and just 10-23 ATS in their last 33 home games after playing their previous game at home. Lay the points! 

4* NBA Late-Night ATS Heavy Hitter on Suns + 

Phoenix is showing great value here as a home dog against the slumping Wizards. We are seeing a big line here due to Washington being the team that desperately needs a win to stay in the playoff race, as they are 3-games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the east. The Wizards failed in a similar spot last time out, losing 111-120 at Sacramento and have dropped 4 of 5 overall. 

Phoenix is one of the worst teams in the league, but they have been playing much better of late. They have covered 6 of their last 10 and were right there with a chance to win their last game at Milwaukee, but ended up losing and failing to cover in a 94-105 loss as a 8-point dog. 

I look for the Suns to come out motivated in this one at home, as they go up against former teammate Markieff Morris, who wanted nothing to do with them and demanded a trade. You also have to factor in the Wizards playing with tired legs, as this will be their 4th straight on the road and 3rd game overall in the last 4 days. 

Phoenix is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games off a loss by 10 or more points, while the Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a SU loss and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. Take the points! 

5* No Limit NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies + 

Memphis is showing great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Raptors. The Grizzlies are simply being undervalued due to having lost 4 straight and 8 of 10 overall, but injuries have played a big part in that. Toronto also comes in off a big 105-97 home win and are perceived to be the much better team. 

While the Raptors are the better team, I don't see them being all that interested in this matchup. Toronto has made it clear that they aren't concerned about catching Cleveland for the No. 1 seed in the east and in the back of their minds, I believe they know their chances of Cleveland slipping are slim. That doesn't leave a whole lot to play for, as they are 6-games up on 3rd place Atlanta. Having just secured their 50th win of the season at home and a huge game against the Spurs on deck tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised if rest was the primary focus in this one. Either key players sitting or playing limited minutes. 

With Memphis they just got back Randolph and Tony Allen is healthy, giving them a formidable lineup, even with Gasol and Conley out. This game also means a lot more to the Grizzlies, who have made it clear they want the No. 5 seed. Right now they are just 1.5-games up on 6th place Portland. I expect a max effort here at home for Memphis. 

Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 against the Eastern Conference and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points. Take the points! 

4* NBA Situational Total No Brainer on Nets/Knicks UNDER

These two teams don't exactly like each other, which is a good sign that both will come out with some energy on the defensive side of the ball. With the way their offenses are playing, I believe we are getting some great value here with a total over 200 points. 

Brooklyn managed just 87 points on 37% shooting in their last game and aren't in a good spot to bounce back. The Nets will not only be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. Brooklyn will have no choice but to slow the tempo down and they already rank 21st in the league in pace. 

New York won't mind the slower tempo, as they rank 25th in pace. The Knicks also will be missing a huge piece of their offense, as Porzingis is doubtful with a shoulder injury and point guard Jose Calderon is questionable with a quad injury. Keep in mind that New York is coming into this game struggling offensively. They have scored 93 or less in each of their last 3 and 94 or fewer in 8 of their last 10. 

UNDER is 8-0 in the Knicks last 8 when playing on 1 day of rest, 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games, 5-1 in their last 6 off a SU loss, 13-3 in their last 16 home games overall and 7-1 in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Celtics + 

This might seem like a small number for the Blazers to be laying at home, where they are a respectable 24-12 on the season, but I really like the Celtics in this spot. Boston is going to come out extremely motivated off an ugly 24-point loss at the Clippers in their last game. They have had a full 2 days to let that defeat sink in and keep in mind they had won 4 straight prior to that loss. 

Portland comes in having won 2 straight, but those wins came against the 76ers and Kings and neither was all that impressive. They only beat Philadelphia at home by 3 and Sacramento by just 12 with the Kings resting Cousins, Rondo and Gay. Overall the Blazers are not playing well. They are just 6-8 in their last 14 and all 6 wins have come against below average teams. One of their losses during this stretch was a 23-point defeat at Boston. The Celtics had some big advantages in that game that I'm confident will carry over to this game. 

Portland is just 14-31 ATS in their last 45 home games when revenging a road blowout loss by 20 or more points, while Boston is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 off a SU loss by more than 10 points, 32-19 ATS in their last 51 as a road dog and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games with a total of 210 or more points. Take the points! 

4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Timberwolves +

I really like the value here with the Timberwolves as a decently priced home dog against the Clippers. Minnesota may be out of playoff contention, but are a young team fighting to get better down the stretch. That's evident by the fact that the Timberwolves  have won 3 of their last 4 and are 8-4 ATS in their last 12. 

I just don't see Los Angeles being motivated at all for this game against a bad team like Minnesota. Los Angeles is basically locked into the No.4 seed in the west. They are 5-games back of No. 3 Oklahoma City and 5.5-games ahead of No. 5 Memphis. LA also comes in off a big home game against the Celtics and have an even bigger game on deck tomorrow at Oklahoma City, which is a nationally televised game on TNT. 

Clippers are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Minnesota on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing on 1 day of rest, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record. Take the points! 

5* NBA No Limit Game of the Month on Bucks -

This might seem like a big number for Milwaukee to be laying at home, as the Bucks come into this game having lost 5 straight. However, those 5 losses have all come against quality opponents in the Jazz, Pistons, Cavaliers, Hawks and Hornets (3 of the 5 on the road).

I look for Milwaukee to come out extremely motivated and make easy work of the Suns. Keep in mind that despite their poor overall record, the Bucks are a respectable 21-15 at home this season. Phoenix on the other hand is just 7-30 on the road, where they are getting outscored on average by nearly 12.0 ppg. 

The Suns are also a team that's more interested in tanking for a better chance at the top pick than finishing the season strong. I just don't see the effort being there on the road tonight. Phoenix just played on the road in Minnesota in their last game and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after a road game where both teams scored 100+ points. They are also just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games overall and 8-24 ATS in their last 32 against a team with a losing record. 

Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Lay the points! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Raptors -

We find the Raptors in a very similar spot to the Pistons, which we cashed on last night as a 3-point dog in a 88-82 outright win. Toronto is playing at home off an ugly 19-point home loss to the Thunder against a Hawks team that comes in having won 4 straight and 14 of their last 17 overall. 

As a result we are getting big time value on the Raptors at home, where they are a dominant 28-9 SU on the season. We can expect a max effort here from Toronto not only due to them coming off that ugly home loss, but this being a chance to secure the No. 2 seed in the east over the Hawks. 

One thing to keep in mind about Atlanta's recent run, is it's come against a soft schedule. Over their last 14 wins, only three have come against a team sitting in the top 5 in either conference and one of those was a home victory against the injury-depleted Grizzlies. One of their losses during this stretch was a 8-point defeat at Toronto, their third straight loss in the series. 

Raptors are 8-1 ATS in their 9 home games this season against teams who are outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Toronto! 

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Pistons +

I was on the wrong end of Oklahoma City's 119-100 win at Toronto last night as a 3-point favorite, but that's not stopping me from going against the Thunder again tonight. The fact that Oklahoma City is almost an identical favorite at Detroit, who isn't considered to be as good as the Raptors is a good sign the books believe Detroit is the sharp play in this one. 

This is a bit of a letdown spot for OKC, as they really came out with a lot of energy against Toronto and have a huge home game on deck against the Clippers Thursday, which will be nationally televised on TNT. You also have to keep in mind that the Thunder were out for revenge last night against the Raptors, who had beat them on their home floor earlier this season. 

I just don't see Oklahoma City coming out with that same energy in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road against a Detroit team they beat by 16 in the previous matchup. The Pistons on the other hand are going to come out extremely motivated following an embarrassing 95-112 home loss to the Hawks. 

Detroit is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off an upset loss as a favorite and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Thunder on the other hand are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after playing a game as a road favorite and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points. Take the points! 

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Grizzlies +

The Grizzlies are currently sitting 5th in the west standings, but injuries have them flying under the radar to close out the season. Memphis desperately needs to secure a playoff spot, so they can turn their focus to getting healthy for the postseason. 

This is definitely a game the Grizzlies can win, even though the books have them listed as a big home dog. San Antonio will be resting Duncan, Parker and Ginobili, plus there figures to be a good chance that Kawhi Leonard sits this one out. Either way, it should allow Memphis to keep this game close. Keep in mind they just lost at San Antonio by just 6-points as a 13-point road dog in their last contest and that was with Parker, Ginobili and Duncan all playing. 

Memphis is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 off a SU loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game. San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on the road against a team with a winning home record. Take the points! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Bulls + 

The Bulls are being way undervalued here due to their recent performances. Chicago followed up consecutive losses to the Knicks in a home-and-home set with an ugly 89-111 loss at Orlando on Saturday. Chicago is now a full 2 games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the east and simply can't afford to lose this game.

Atlanta has been playing extremely well of late, as they have gone 13-3 over their last 16 games, but I just don't see the Hawks matching the intensity of the Bulls in this one. Atlanta will be playing their 2nd straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 days. As poorly as Chicago has been playing, they are still a respectable 24-13 at home. 

Chicago did lose the most recent matchup in Atlanta 88-103, but are 34-19 ATS in their last 53 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. The Bulls also seem to step up against the better teams. Chicago is 30-17 ATS in their last 47 against teams who are outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game. Take the points! 

5* Thunder/Raptors NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors +

The Raptors are showing exceptional value here as a home dog against the Thunder. Toronto is a dominant 28-8 at home this season and simply put should not be getting points on their home floor. Oklahoma City has won 7 straight, but really don't have anything to gain in the standings, as they are all but locked into the No. 3 seed in the west.

Toronto on the other hand is just 2.5-games back of Cleveland for the top spot in the east. Either way I expect a max effort here from the Raptors against a top level opponent, especially knowing that they are underdogs on their home floor. I expect Toronto's defense to be the difference in this one. The Raptors are giving up just 98.1 ppg at home, while OKC is allowing a staggering 106.2 ppg on the road. 

Thunder are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 road games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Raptors on the other hand are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning record. Take the points! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Wizards - 

Washington is 3-games back of the final playoff spot in the east with just 10 games left on the schedule. To say this is a must-win game against the Lakers is an understatement, as Washington can't like their chances in their next game at Golden State. I look for the Wizards to treat this like a playoff game and that should be more than enough to take down the Lakers and cover this spread. 

We are getting some value here due to the Wizards coming in off an ugly home loss to the Timberwolves as a 9-point favorite, which followed a 21-point home loss to the Hawks. Los Angeles is just playing out the season at this point and haven't shown much signs of life. Last time out they got beat by the Nuggets at home by 11. The Lakers are just 7-30 in their last 37 overall. 

Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record. They are also just 1-3 ATS as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points this season and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100+ points. Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after 2 straight games allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off 2 or more consecutive home losses. Lay the points! 

4* NBA No-Doubt ATS Blowout on Jazz -

This might seem like a big number for Utah to be laying on the road, but the situation heavily favors the Jazz to not to turn this into a blowout. Utah is currently sitting tied with the Mavericks for the 8th and final playoff spot in the west, while Minnesota is just playing out the season. That's a big advantage for the Jazz with the Timberwolves in a huge letdown spot. 

Minnesota went on the road and pulled off a big upset last night, defeating the Wizards 132-129 as a 9-point underdog. The key is the game went into double-overtime. All 5 starters for the Timberwolves logged 40+ minutes. Coming out with any kind of motivation will be difficult to say the least, especially against a team like the Jazz who get after you defensively. 

Minnesota is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 when playing on 0 days of rest, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 125 or more and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after their starting 5 combined for 160 or more minutes (combined for 220). Utah is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record. Lay the points!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Pistons - 

The Pistons are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Hawks. Both teams are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, which gives Detroit a big advantage playing at home. The Pistons are also coming into this game red-hot with 5 straight wins and are a solid 24-12 at home. 

It's important to note how both of these teams have responded in this spot. Atlanta has lost both times this season when playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road after playing the first at home. Detroit on the other hand has been money on no rest at home, going 7-1 ATS in their last 8. 

Another key factor here is motivation. Detroit is fighting for their playoff lives and have revenge on their mind from a heartbreaking 114-118 home loss to Detroit back on 3/16. Pistons are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games after 2 or more consecutive games that have gone over the total, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games after playing a game as a favorite and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take the Pistons! 

4* NBA Late-Night ATS Annihilator on Lakers + 

The Lakers are a difficult team for the public to back, even when playing at home against a bad team like the Nuggets. As a result, we find LA showing big time value at home tonight. Denver barely held on to beat the 76ers at home 104-103 in their last game. With no shot at making the playoffs, I don't see the Nuggets being all that interested in this one, especially with a much bigger game against the Clippers on deck. 

The Lakers come in off a 107-119 loss at Phoenix, but had been playing well over their previous 8 games, which all were at home. This is one of the rare spots LA has left on the schedule, where they can go in confident that they can get a win, so I expect a big effort here in this one. 

Denver is without Danilo Gallinari and there's a good chance Kenneth Faried will miss this game as well. These are two of the most important players for the Nuggets. Keep in mind Faried had 28 and 15 in Denver's win at LA earlier this season. 

Nuggets are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists, while the Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after a game with 15 or less assists. Take the points! 

4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Nets +

I was fortunate enough to get this bet in early before the line dropped, but I'm still all over Brooklyn in this spot (play is still recommended at current line of +6). This is a horrible spot for the Cavaliers and there's a good chance multiple starters (including LeBron) will set this game out. Cleveland is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 5th game overall in the last 7 days. 

When this team isn't at full strength and/or are playing with tired legs, they have really struggled. We saw them lose at Miami by 21 in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and that was with no one taking the night off. Prior to that they lost 85-94 at Utah in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. 

Brooklyn is a bad team and has nothing left to play for, but are also a team we don't have to worry about tanking. That makes the Nets a dangerous team at home tonight against the Cavs. Brooklyn has been playing much better of late and a big reason for that is they are giving guys like Sean Kilpatrick a chance to showcase their talents. They are still playing extremely hard and I don't see that changing, regardless of who suits up for Cleveland in this one. 

Cavaliers are just 11-21 ATS on the season against a team with a losing record, 9-20 ATS in their last 29 off a home win where they scored 110 or more points and 8-21 ATS in their last 29 road games after scoring 100+ in 4 straight games. Take the points! 

5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Blazers - 

The Trail Blazers are showing great value here at home against the Mavericks. These two teams just played in Dallas on Sunday, which the Mavericks won 132-120 in overtime. It's extremely difficult beating the same team in consecutive games, especially when that next meeting is on the road. 

I look for Portland to come out with one of their best efforts of the season tonight and put away the Mavericks early. Even with the win over the Blazers, Dallas is just 2-7 in their last 9 overall. Things don't figure to get better now that they lost Chandler Parsons to a season-ending injury. 

We are also catching Portland undervalue due to a brutal schedule they have had to deal with of late. The Blazers have played 11 of their last 13 on the road. There's no doubt in my mind they will be extremely motivated to get back on track at home. This is also a tough spot for the Mavericks, as they could find themselves looking ahead to Friday's road showdown against the Warriors. 

Dallas is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games after covering the spread in their last contest and 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 road games against a team with a winning home record. Portland is 13-4 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after losing 3 of their last 4 and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. Lay the points! 

4* NBA No-Doubt ATS Blowout on Celtics - 

The Celtics are showing big time value here as a small home favorite against the Raptors. Toronto is simply way overvalued right now due to having won 4 straight and 13 of their last 16 overall. The Celtics snapped out of a funk that saw them lose 4 straight with back-to-back blowout wins over the 76ers and Magic. 

I look for Boston to come out the more motivated team in this one, as they are sick and tired of losing to the Raptors. Boston has lost all 3 of the previous meetings this season, including a recent 14-point defeat at Toronto last week. 

The Celtics are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games after scoring 105+ points in back-to-back games and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Toronto on the other hand is just 11-22 ATS in their last 33 after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6. Lay the points! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Hawks + 

This is a great spot to back the Hawks in basically a pick'em on the road against the Wizards. Atlanta is going to be out for some serious revenge here, as they just lost at home to Washington on Monday 102-117 as a 7-point favorite. 

It's extremely difficult to beat the same team in consecutive games, especially a quality team like the Hawks. Washington is simply getting too much respect due to have won 5 straight. They also played a near perfect game against Atlanta, shooting 50.5% from the field. The other key here is the Hawks have been playing extremely well of late. Atlanta had won 5 straight and 10 of their previous 12 before the defeat to the Wizards. 

Washington is just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 home games off an upset win as a home dog and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 off a road win where they scored 110 or more points. They are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record. Hawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 following a double-digit loss at home, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Take Atlanta! 

5* No Limit NBA *BEST BET* on Nets + 

Brooklyn is showing great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Hornets. Charlotte is in the ultimate letdown spot here, as they used every ounce of energy they had in last night's improbable win over the Spurs. The Hornets trailed 7-30 early in the 2nd quarter, but were able to rally for a 91-88 victory. 

I just don't see Charlotte coming out with the kind of energy needed to turn this into a blowout. Not only are the Hornets playing the 2nd of a back-to-back set on the road, but this will be their 5th game in the last 7 days overall. It's also important to keep in mind that Charlotte is not the same team on the road as they are at home. The Hornets are just 13-19 on the road, compared to 27-11 at home. 

Brooklyn isn't a great team by any means, but I expect the Nets to come out with some energy at home after getting the last 2 days off. The Nets will also be getting back Brook Lopez after he sat out the last game.

Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss by more than 10 points, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 when playing on 2 days of rest. Take the points! 

4* NBA Situational No Doubt Blowout on Pistons -

This might seem like a big number for the Pistons to be laying against a division opponent, but Detroit should have no problem taking down the Bucks by at least 8 points tonight. Milwaukee is all but eliminated from playoff contention and are already starting to look at developing their younger players. Detroit on the other hand needs every win they can get, as they sit tied for the 8th and final playoff spot in the east with Chicago. 

The Bucks are also a horrible road team. They are just 9-26 away from home on the season, losing by an average of 7.4 ppg. The key here is that we are catching Milwaukee in a really bad spot, as they will be on no rest after hosting the Jazz yesterday. 

Detroit is in the midst of a 9-game homestand. After losing a hard fought game to Atlanta, they have won 2 straight in impressive fashion. With the Magic on deck, there's no reason for the Pistons not to show up for this contest. 

Bucks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3 games, while the Pistons are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after playing a game as a favorite and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Lay the points! 

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Hornets + 

Charlotte is showing great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Spurs. This is simply a bad spot for San Antonio off that huge win at home against the Warriors. The Spurs invested everything they had in beating Golden State and are almost certainly going to suffer a letdown on the road against a Hornets team that is quietly playing their best basketball of the season. 

Charlotte comes in off a 93-101 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 9-point favorite, which is definitely helping the value here. However, that lackluster performance against Denver, likely had a lot to do with them looking ahead to this game. The Hornets are 15-4 over their last 19 games and haven't lost back-to-back games when playing at home all season. 

This is also a big revenge game for Charlotte, as they got embarrassed by 20-points at San Antonio earlier this season. Hornets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a road loss of 10 or more points and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Spurs are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a SU win and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against the east. Take the points! 

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Clippers - 

This might seem like a big number for the Clippers to be laying on the road playing on no rest in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but it's for good reason. The Pelicans aren't expected to have Anthony Davis and that gives them little to no chance of being competitive with the injury situation that they have. 

Los Angeles lost yesterday 102-113 at Memphis and that is going to have the Clippers coming out extremely motivated for a win here. Keep in mind they followed up a 87-108 loss at San Antonio on  Tuesday with a 122-106 win at Houston the next night. This also isn't a horrible back-to-back spot, as LA had two days off prior to playing the Grizzlies. 

Pelicans are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against a team with a winning record and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 60+ points in the 1st half of their last game. Clippers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Lay the points! 

4* Warriors/Spurs NBA Primetime Main Event on Spurs - 

This is the game that everyone has been waiting for and I really like the value we are getting with the Spurs as a small home favorite. San Antonio  is a perfect 34-0 at home this season and have won a ridiculous 32 straight regular season home games against the Warriors. 

Not only is this a great line to get the Spurs at home, but this is a huge revenge spot for San Antonio. The Spurs got embarrassed by the Warriors in Golden State earlier this season, losing by a final of 90-120. To say this is a statement game for the Spurs is an understatement. 

It's also worth noting San Antonio has a big edge here in the scheduling department. The Warriors had to play last night in Dallas and now are on the road for a second straight game without rest. This is also their 3rd game in the last 4 days. The Spurs on the other hand had yesterday off and will be playing just their 3rd game int he last 6 days. 

San Antonio is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points and have won these games by an average of 13.7 ppg. Lay the points! 

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Magic +

Orlando is showing great value here as a near double-digit home dog against the Cavaliers. The Magic have covered two straight and 4 of their last 6 overall. This is a game they will definitely be motivated to play their best. Getting the best team in the east on their home floor. 

The Cavaliers are simply overvalued due to having won 7 of their last 9 and going up against a bad team. However, this isn't a great spot for Cleveland. They are coming off a hard fought win over the Mavericks at home and have to turn around and play Miami tomorrow. The Heat are a team that we know LeBron James wants to be at his best against, so don't expect a max effort tonight from the King. 

Orlando is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, while Cleveland is 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 against the Eastern Conference and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. 

We also find a strong system in play on Orlando. Underdogs who have allowed 105 or more points in 3 straight games against an opponent that is off a win by 6 points or less are 41-17 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take the points! 

3* NBA Situational No-Doubt BLOWOUT on Kings - 

I believe the books have set a low number here trying to adjust for the Kings playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. While this would normally be a decent spot to go against Sacramento, I love the value here with them going up against the Pelicans. 

New Orleans has been devastated by injuries and even when they were somewhat healthy they struggled on the road. The Pelicans are just 7-27 away from home on the season and this is far from an ideal spot. New Orleans will be concluding a 5-game road trip and will be playing their 4th game in the last 6 days. 

The Kings snapped a 5-game losing streak with a 106-98 win over the Lakers last night. I don't see them looking past this game, as they have lost each of the previous 3 meetings this season against the Pelicans. No team wants to get swept by an opponent, so expect a big effort here from Sacramento. 

New Orleans is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after playing their previous game as a road dog and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 55 or more in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Sacramento on the other hand is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the points! 

4* NBA No Limit VEGAS INSIDER on Pistons -

Detroit is showing great value here at basically a pick'em at home. A big reason for that is they come in off an ugly 84-124 loss at Washington. That defeat came in the final of a 4-game road trip and was their 3rd game in the last 4 days. The Pistons return home where they have won 3 straight, including a 20-point win over the Blazers and 13-point win against the Raptors. 

Atlanta has been playing well of late, as they come in having won 7 of their last 9, but this is a tough spot for the Hawks. Atlanta just played 2 straight at home after a 5-game road trip. Now they have to go on the road for this one game before returning home for 3 straight. 

Detroit has won 2 of the last 3 meetings and will be out for revenge from a 107-100 loss at Atlanta in the most recent matchup. The Pistons are 22-11 ATS in their last 33 home games when revenging a road loss and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games after playing their previous game on the road. Take Detroit! 

5* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Celtics/Pacers OVER

While the Celtics failed to score 100+ for the first time in 9 games in their last game and the Pacers managed just 75 points at Atlanta last time out, I look for both offenses to put on a show tonight. The Celtics 98-point effort against the Rockets was simply a result of an off night shooting. Boston comes in averaging 106.1 ppg. 

Both of these team rank in the top 10 in pace of play, with the Celtics the better of the two at No. 3. With Boston coming into this game having not played since last Friday, we can expect the Celtics to be running up and down the floor. They should be able to have their way with a Pacers defense that has given up 100+ in two straight. 

I also look for Indiana to score at will here. The Celtics are giving up 103.7 ppg on the road overall and have allowed 113.6 ppg over their last 5 away from home. No surprise, every one of those games finished over the total. 

OVER is 38-15 in Boston's last 53 road games when playing with 3 or more days of rest and the OVER is 36-7 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 or more where you have a team playing 3 or less games in 10 days that has lost 2 of their last 3. OVER is also 46-19 on Tuesday over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off a road blowout loss by 20 or more. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Situational Oddsmakers Error on Suns - 

Phoenix is showing great value here at basically a pick'em at home against the Timberwolves. Minnesota comes into this game off a surprising 99-96 win at Oklahoma City as a 12-point dog. That along with the fact that the Wolves have covered 3 of their last 4, has them way overvalued here. 

The Suns have gone just 5-33 over their last 38 games, including 3 straight losses coming into this contest. However, injuries have played a big part in their poor play. Brandon Knight just returned after a near 2 month absence and put up 30 points in a 116-123 loss at Golden State as a 19-point dog. With Knight back in the mix, Phoenix is a completely different team and simply should be favored by more at home against an equally bad team in Minnesota. 

Timberwolves are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4, 19-40 in their last 59 off a road win by 3-points or less and 8-22 ATS in their last 30 against a team with a losing record. Take Phoenix! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Wizards -

Washington is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Pistons. The Wizards are simply not getting the respect they deserve from the books at home due to having lost 5 straight. The key thing to keep in mind is 4 of those 5 losses came on the road. Washington is 6-1 over their last 7 home games and will be facing a Pistons team that is just 15-21 on the road. 

Detroit comes in having won 3 of 4, but have not been playing well defensively during this stretch. The Pistons are allowing 106.0 ppg over their last 5 and are allowing 102.1 ppg overall on the road this season. Washington averages 104.1 ppg at home and should have their way on that side of the floor. It's also worth noting that the Wizards have won 3 straight in the series and held Detroit to just 92.0 ppg in those 3 victories. 

Pistons are just 7-17 ATS in their 24 road games this season against up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game and 7-18 AT in their last 25 road games against teams allowing 99+ points/game. Pistons are also just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games after playing their previous game on the road. Lay the points! 

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Mavericks + 

Dallas comes into this game having lost 5 straight and as a result we are getting great value on the Mavericks here as a decently priced road dog against the Hornets. Charlotte on the other hand is overvalued due to winning 7 straight. Not to take anything away from the Hornets, but their 7-game winning streak has come against a favorable schedule and 6 of the 7 have come at home. 

As poorly as the Mavericks have been playing of late, they are still tied for 7th in the west. With that said, Dallas can't continue to play this bad and I look for an all out effort here against Charlotte. The Hornets on the other hand are due for a letdown. Charlotte has allowed 100+ points in 5 straight an eventually that poor defensively will catch up to them. 

Dallas is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season when listed as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 off 2 or more consecutive home losses. Charlotte is just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after 3 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers. Take the points! 

5* Cavs/Clippers NBA Heavy Hitter on UNDER

I'm expecting both teams to come out sluggish, which should lead to a much lower scoring game than the books are expecting. Rarely do you see teams on the west coast playing this early in the day and on top of that, players have to adjust to daylight savings time. This is also a big time matchup, which tends to lead to a lot more effort on the defensive end. 

Both of teams can light it up offensively and that overshadows how good they are defensively. Both of these teams rank in the Top 8 in defensive efficiency. Cleveland is only giving up 97 ppg on the road and the Clippers are allowing just 98.8 ppg at home. 

UNDER is 13-4 in the Cavaliers last 17 after covering 4 of their last 5, 22-10 in their last 32 games played on Sunday and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on 2 days of rest. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Clippers last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record, 10-2 in their last 12 after scoring 100+ in their previous game and 22-5 in their last 27 when facing an opponent who allowed 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Bucks - 

The Pelicans are no longer a threat to make the playoffs, as they are 8.5-games back of 8th place Dallas with just 18 games left on the schedule. They also have to pass 3 other teams ahead of them just to get to the Mavericks. This is a team that is going to struggle to play hard down the stretch, as they came into this season with the expectation of making the playoffs. 

This is an especially difficult spot for New Orleans. The Pelicans lost in overtime last night at Memphis and will now be playing on no rest in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. Four of the five starters played 40+ minutes and Ryan Anderson played 37 off the bench. Making it even harder to get up for this game is the fact that they have the Warriors on deck Monday. Milwaukee on the other hand comes in off a win at home over Miami and will be playing on 2 days of rest. Bucks are also a respectable 19-12 at home, while the Pelicans are just 7-25 on the road. 

New Orleans is just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 120 or more points. Milwaukee is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games after losing 2 of their last 3. Lay the points! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 

The books have set the total way too high for this matchup. These two teams just played back on 2/24 and combined for just 202 points with a total of 210. The books have adjusted, but not enough. In fact, each of the last 6 meetings in the series have seen a combined score less than the number posted here. 

Neither team is going to be looking to push the pace in this one, as both are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Philadelphia figures to really struggle offensively, as they have lost Okafor for the season and will also be without Covington. Those are two of their top 3 scorers, who combine for nearly 30.0 ppg. 

UNDER is 9-1 in the Pistons last 10 road games when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, 6-1 in their last 7 road games overall and 17-7 in their last 24 road games against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 24-10-1 in the 76ers last 35 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wizards/Jazz UNDER 

The books have set the mark way too high for tonight's showdown between the Jazz and Wizards. This is an important game for both teams. After losing each of their last 3 games, Washington is now 2.5-games out of the 8th and final spot in the east. Utah has lost 7 of their last 8 to fall 3-games back of the 8th spot in the west. 

This is a game that both teams desperately want and need, which I believe is going to lead to a max defensive effort from both teams. Utah allowed 115 in their last game against the Warriors, but had held each of their previous 3 opponents to 94 or less and giving up only 94.2 ppg at home this season. Washington's defense has slipped in their last few games, but have held 8 of their last 13 to 100 or less. They also haven't allowed Utah to score more than 91 in each of the last 4 meetings. 

UNDER is 4-0 in the Wizards last 4 against a team with a losing record, 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 100 or more and 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 12-3 in Utah's last 15 against a team with a losing record and 22-10 in their last 32 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Timberwolves +

Minnesota is showing great value here as a double-digit dog against the Thunder. Oklahoma City is simply getting too much respect off their 12-point win against the Clippers, where they easily covered the spread. The key here is this is not a great spot at all for the Thunder. 

Oklahoma City really invested a lot into that game against Los Angeles, as they had blown a 20+ point lead to the Clippers the previous week. Not only are the Thunder in a prime letdown spot, but they also have a huge game on deck tomorrow at San Antonio, which is the primetime matchup on ABC. All Oklahoma City wants is to leave this game with a win, they aren't going to be worried about blowing this thing wide open. 

Minnesota on the other hand is going to come out motivated against one of the elite teams and keep in mind they played the Thunder tough in the last meeting, losing by just 3-points at home. Timberwolves are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points and the Thunder are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 after covering last time out. Take the points! 

4* Hawks/Raptors NBA Heavy Hitter on Raptors -

The Raptors are showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Hawks. Toronto has won 13 of their last 14 at home and have been doing so behind an explosive offense that is averaging 107.4 ppg during this stretch. Atlanta's defense has been playing well of late, but this is not a good spot for the Hawks. 

Atlanta will be playing the finale of a 5-game road trip. Each of the first 4 on the trip were on the west coast, now they have to travel completely across the country to face the Raptors. Having already secured a winning road trip, I just don't see the Hawks being all that interested in this matchup. 

Toronto is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning record and we find a strong system in play backing a fade of Atlanta. Road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a game involving two strong free throw shooting teams (76-79%) after 42+ games are 16-41 (28%) ATS after 5 straight games holding their opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Lay the points! 

5* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year on Heat/Bucks UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive showdown in tonight's matchup between the Bucks and Heat. Neither of these teams like to play at a fast pace. Milwaukee ranks 22nd in pace and the Heat are 26th. I look for the defensive intensity to be there for both teams. Miami has had the last 2 days off and will be motivated to get a win with road games at Chicago and Toronto on deck. Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back losses and will be focused here against a top level team at home. 

These two teams combined for 210 points in the most recent meeting on 1/29. However, both teams shot lights out from the field. Milwaukee hit 47.5% of their field goal attempts and the Heat were even better at 50%. Keep in mind the total for that game was just 194.5. The previous meeting this season at Miami only saw a combined score of 170. I just think there's too much value here with the total over 200. 

UNDER is 12-2 in the Heat's last 14 road games as a favorite of 3 or less, 11-2 in their last 13 road games when playing with 2 days of rest, 10-3-2 in their last 15 against a team with a losing record and 10-3 in their last 13 against the Central. UNDER is also 9-2-2 in the Bucks last 13 against a team with a winning record, 8-3 in their last 11 after scoring 100 points and 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games against Miami. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Jazz UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle tonight between the Jazz and Hawks. Both teams have really been playing well on the defensive side of the ball here of late. Atlanta is only giving up 89.4 ppg over their last 5 and Utah has held each of their last 2 opponents to 94. Keep in mind the Jazz only give up an average of 94.3 ppg at home on the season. 

Both teams also come into this game off a 2 day break, which should have both bringing the intensity on the defensive side of the ball. This is also a big game for both teams. Atlanta is just 3-games ahead of 9th place Detroit, while the Jazz are 1.5 back of 8th place Houston for the final spot in the west. 

These two teams combined for 193 points in Atlanta back on 11/15, barely eclipsing the total of 192. That was with both teams shooting lights out from the field. The Hawks hit 48.7% of their attempts, while Utah hit 51.3%. That's a good sign we will see a much lower scoring game in the rematch. 

UNDER is 16-4 in Utah's last 20 home games against teams who average 21 or fewer free throws/game, 24-11 in their last 35 against the Eastern Conference and 20-7 in their last 27 home games against a team from the east. UNDER is also 11-4 in the Hawks last 15 after scoring 100 or more points and 7-3 in their last 10 when playing on 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Bulls -

Chicago finds themselves sitting tied with the Pistons for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls had really been struggling with injuries and as a result were just 3-9 in their previous 12 before knocking off the Rockets at home 108-100 on Saturday. That win over Houston marked the return of Jimmy Butler. With Chicago finally starting to get healthy and their playoff lives at stake, I look for the Bulls to go on a big run down the stretch. 

Either way, this is a great spot to back Chicago at home against the Bucks. Milwaukee is not a great road team. The Bucks are just 8-25 away from home. Making matters worse, is the fact that Milwaukee will be playing on no rest after a big home game yesterday against the Thunder, which they lost 96-104. Five different players logged 30+ minutes, with Parker, Antetokounmpo and Middleton all playing 36 or more. I just don't see Milwaukee being able to match the intensity of the Bulls in this one. 

Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against the Bucks. Milwaukee is also just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing 60 or more in the 1st half of their last game. Lay the points! 

3* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Grizzlies +

I believe we are seeing some great value here with Memphis based on the recent results of these two teams. The Grizzlies just got embarrassed on their home floor yesterday by the Suns 100-109 as a 9.5-point favorite. Cleveland on the other hand comes in off back-to-back blowout wins over the Wizards (108-83) and Celtics (120-103). 

Key thing to keep in mind with the Cavaliers two impressive wins over Washington and Boston, is they were out for revenge in both of the games, as they had lost at home to Boston on 2/5 and at Washington by 14 on 2/28. Now it's Memphis that will be using the revenge angle to their benefit. While it came all the way back in their season-opener, the Grizzlies haven't forgot about the 30-point embarrassment they suffered at home at the hands of the Cavaliers. 

Grizzlies are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 following a SU loss and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against the Eastern Conference. Cleveland is 9-23-2 ATS in their last 34 games played on Monday, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and 1-3 ATS in their last 4 off 2 straight home wins by 10 or more points. Take the points! 

5* NBA No Limit *BEST BET* on Mavs - 

The Mavericks are showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Nuggets. Dallas has won 4 straight in the series and Denver is headed in the wrong direction. The Nuggets have lost 6 of their last 8, including an ugly home loss to the Nets last time out. Things don't figure to get better for Denver with Danilo Gallinari still sidelined and the Mavericks can't afford to lose this game in the playoff race. 

This is also a big bounce back game for Dallas, as they come in off a 101-104 loss at home to the Kings as a 6.5-point favorite. Offensively the Mavericks have been lights out, scoring 100+ in 9 straight games. Denver has allowed 100+ in 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall. The Nuggets come in giving up 106.5 ppg. With Dallas playing on 2 days rest, I just don't see Denver being able to make enough stops here to keep this game close. 

Mavericks are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games after 4 straight game where both teams scored 100+ points, 18-9 ATS in their last 27 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Denver is 1-4 ATS last 5 at home and 1-5 ATS last 6 after scoring 100+ in their previous game. Lay the points! 

4* NBA Late Night NO BRAINER on Timberwolves -

The Timberwolves are showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is in an awful spot for this matchup. The Nets had to go to overtime last night to pull out a 121-120 win at Denver and now find themselves playing on no rest in what will be their 7th straight road game in a span of just 12 days. Keep in mind it's extremely hard to bounce back after playing a game in the thin air of Denver and overtime makes it that much harder. 

Prior to beating the Nuggets, Brooklyn on the road to the Lakers by 6 and Minnesota is a more talented team. The Timberwolves have a lot of young and explosive players who are going to be able to take advantage of the tired legs of the Nets. You also have to factor in that Brooklyn is just 7-22 on the road this season. 

The Nets are just 11-23 ATS in their last 34 road games when playing 6 or more games in a span of just 10 days, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playing on 0 days of rest. Lay the points! 

5* NBA Situational *BEST BET* on Cavs -

The Cavaliers are going to be all business when they take the floor tonight against the Wizards, who they just lost to at Washington by 14-points on Sunday. Keep in mind that win for the Wizards came with LeBron James sitting out due to rest. This is a statement game for the Cavaliers as they are just 2-3 in their last 5 overall. 

We can count on a max effort here from Cleveland. Not only will the Cavaliers be motivated with revenge, but they come into this game having had the last 3 days off. Even more incentive is that this is a nationally televised game on ESPN. Washington has won 4 straight and 7 of 9 overall, but 5 of those wins came at home and the two on the road were against the 76ers and Timberwolves. Wizards will also be playing their 4th game in 6 days, which is no easy task on the road. 

Wizards are just 10-25 ATS in their last 35 after covering 3 of their last 4 and 11-22 ATS in their last 33 off a road win. Washington is also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 when playing with 3 or more days of rest. Lay the points! 

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Knicks + 

The perception is that the Knicks are a complete mess right now and the betting public wants nothing to do with them because of it. I believe it's created some big time value on New York in tonight's game against the Celtics. Oddsmakers had no choice but to inflate this line given how well Boston has been playing at home, but this isn't a great spot for the Celtics. 

With a much bigger road game on deck tomorrow at Cleveland, it's going to be hard for Boston to get up for this game. New York on the other hand is going to come out extremely motivated. This division matchup is a bigger rivalry than you might think. Boston has won 3 of the last 4, but all 3 wins have come by fewer than the number listed here. I look for the Knicks to put up a big enough fight here to keep this close enough to cover. 

New York is a solid 24-15 ATS in their last 39 when revenging a loss and favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who have won between 51% to 60% of their games and off a a home win by 10 or more are just 28-54 (34%) ATS over the last 5 seasons against a team with a losing record. That's a 66% system in favor of the Knicks. Take the points! 

4* NBA Total NO BRAINER on Suns/Heat UNDER

I believe we are seeing an inflated total here based on what took place in the last game for both of these teams. Phoenix allowed 126 points in a 92-126 loss at Charlotte, going over the total set of 210. Miami poured in 129 points on a ridiculous 67.5% shooting in a 129-111 win over the Bulls, easily eclipsing the total of 201.5. Oddsmakers had no choice but to inflate this total, but the value is with the under. 

I'm confident Miami won't be shooting near 68% from the field in this one. While Phoenix is not a great defensive team, I look for Miami to struggle to bring the focus and energy against a bad team like the Suns. Keep in mind the Heat play at one of the slowest paces in the league and rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency. 

Phoenix on the other hand should come out inspired on the defensive end. As bad as they have been playing, they have continued to play hard and this is a prime bounce back spot after that ugly loss to the Hornets. Offensively the Suns figure to struggle. Phoenix ranks 28th in offensive efficiency and Miami ranks 6th in defensive efficiency. 

UNDER is 20-9 in the Heat's last 29 after playing their previous game at home, 16-2 in their last 18 after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more and 7-0 in their last 7 after allowing 60 or more points in the 1st half. UNDER is also 21-7 in the Suns last 28 road games after a combined score of 205 or more in their last 2 games and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pacers -

The Pacers are showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Bucks. Indiana will be in desperation mode after losing 3 straight and I just don't see Milwaukee being able to match that intensity. The Bucks pulled off a big home win over the Rockets as a 3-point dog last time out, but also lost their previous game at home to the Pistons by 11. 

Indiana is just 8-8 in their last 16 games, which is nothing to get excited about. However, their losses have all come against teams who are currently in the playoff picture. Milwaukee is 6-games out of 8th place in the east, so they clearly aren't in that mix. This is also a big revenge game for Indiana, who lost at home 116-120 in the most recent meeting. 

Pacers are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 after losing 3 of their last 4, 26-12 ATS in their last 38 road games off a road loss to a division opponent and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games versus division foes. Milwaukee is just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games off a home win and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 off a game where they scored 125 or more points. Lay the points! 

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Celtics - 

The Trail Blazers come into this game having won 3 straight and 14 of their last 16 overall. Portland is also an impressive 8-2 ATS in their last 10. This might seem like a fair number to back the Blazers on the road against the Celtics, but this is a horrible spot for Portland. Not only will the Trail Blazers be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 4th road game in the last 5 days overall. 

At the same time, it's not like Boston hasn't been playing well of late. The Celtics have won 3 straight and are 14-4 in their last 18. Boston has been especially good at home, where they have won 11 straight. The Celtics will simply be the much fresher team in this one. Boston had yesterday off and this will be their 4th straight at home. 

Trail Blazers are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after playing 3 straight non-conference games and 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 road games against at team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Boston is 12-3 ATS this season in games with a total of 210 or more, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 6-1 in their last 7 off 1 day of rest and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Lay the points! 

3* NBA Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets/Lakers OVER

I'm not expecting much defense to be played in tonight's matchup between two of the league's worst teams in the Lakers and the Nets. Both of these teams have struggled defensively this year. Brooklyn comes in allowing 103.6 ppg with opponents shooting on average 47.0% from the field. Los Angeles is even worse, giving up 107.2 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 47.2% from the field. 

Brooklyn just played last night against the Clippers and were competitive for the most part in a 95-105 defeat. While the Nets won't be traveling for this game, this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 nights and 5th straight on the road overall. Brooklyn has allowed 105+ in 3 of their 4 road games during this stretch so far with the only exception coming against the Jazz. They combined for 222 in a 116-106 win at Phoenix, who I would compare with the talent the Lakers have. 

Los Angeles hasn't been playing any defense since returning from the All-Star break. They have allowed at least 108 points in 6 straight games. The key here is they have scored 101+ points in 5 of those 6, going over 110 in 4. The Lakers come into this game off 3 days of rest and that should allow them to take advantage of the tired legs the Nets will be dealing with in this spot. 

These two teams combined for 202 points back on Nov. 6th and that was with both teams not shooting well from the field or the 3-point line. OVER is 10-1 in the Nets last 11 off a SU loss, 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record and 9-3 in their last 12 against the Western Conference. OVER is also 27-9-2 in the Lakers last 38 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on 76ers +

Philadelphia is showing exceptional value here as a double-digit road dog against the Wizards. This will be the 3rd meeting between these two teams this month. Washington won by 12-points at home as a 9-point favorite back on 2/5 and then by 9-points as a 7-point favorite at Philadelphia last Friday. 

We are simply seeing an overreaction here based on how both teams performed yesterday. Washington beat the Cavaliers 113-99, while the 76ers lost 116-30 at Orlando. Even though the Wizards win over Cleveland came without LeBron James, they were emotionally invested in that game. I just don't see Washington being all that interested with this matchup against Philadelphia. Keep in mind that this is only the second time all season the Wizards have been favored by double-digits. The previous time was at home agains the Lakers, where they lost outright 104-108 as a 10-point favorite. 

Wizards are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 following a win by more than 10-points and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 when facing an opponent who scored 100 or more points in their previous game. Washington is also just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points and 0-3 ATS this season after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Take the points! 

5* NBA Total of the Week on Knicks/Heat UNDER

I really like the value we are getting here with the total for tonight's game between the Heat and Knicks. Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 96.9 ppg, and are going to have to rely on that defense on the road in the second game of a back-to-back set. Knicks have scored 100+ in two straight, but are only averaging 99.4 ppg on the season.

New York has started to show signs of life in their last two games and held the Magic to just 95 points on 41.9% shooting in their last game. Miami's offense is not great. The Heat only average 93.9 ppg and the offense will be adjusting to newly acquired Joe Johnson. 

It's also important to note that both of these teams like to play at a slow pace. Miami ranks 28th in pace and the Knicks aren't far behind at 25th. These two teams have played 3 times already this season and the most they have combined for is 188 points and two of the 3 saw fewer than 180 points. 

UNDER is 14-5 in the Heat's last 19 with a line of +3 to -3, 24-9 in their last 33 after allowing 100+ in two straight games and 21-9 in their last 30 revenging a home loss. UNDER is also 19-6-1 in the Knicks last 26 against a team with a winning record, 6-2 in their last 10 at home and 5-1 in their last 6 after covering the spread last time out. Take the UNDER! 

3* Warriors/Thunder NBA Main Event on Thunder +

As difficult as it is to go against the Warriors, I believe this is an ideal spot to fade Golden State. The Warriors are a tired team and will be playing their 6th straight road game since returning from the All-Star break. 

The Thunder gave the Warriors all they could handle in a 108-116 loss at Golden State back on 2/6. Oklahoma City is desperate to show they can hang with the Warriors and I look for them to treat this game as if it was Game 7 of a playoff series. The Warriors on the other hand simply don't have enough gas left in the tank to match that kind of intensity. This game also isn't as important to them as it is OKC. Keep in mind that the Warriors get to host the Thunder next Thursday, which takes away some of the incentive for them to lay it all on the line in this one. 

Golden State is just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 or more points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against the Western Conference. Thunder are 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog. Take the points! 

4* NBA No-Doubt BLOWOUT on Pelicans -

New Orleans is showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Timberwolves. The Pelicans may come in with a mere 23-24 record, but they have been trending in the right direction of late. New Orleans has won 5 of their last 7 and 3 straight at home. This is a team that still believes they can get back to the playoffs and understand that they can't afford to lose at home to a bad team like Minnesota. 

The Timberwolves are just 8-20 on the road this season, but have covered their last two games against the Celtics and Raptors, two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. I just don't see Minnesota being able to match the intensity of the Pelicans and it's worth noting that New Orleans has owned the Timberwolves in recent matchups. The Pelicans have won 7 straight in the series with all 7 wins coming by at least 7 points. Each of the last 4 have been decided by 12 or more with the last two at home coming by a combined 37 points. 

New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the Northwest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing on 1 day of rest. Minnesota is 8-23 ATS in their last 31 against a team with a losing record and 14-27 ATS in their last 41 after covering 2 or more games and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 110 or more in 2 straight games. Lay the points! 

4* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Mavericks -

Dallas is showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Nuggets. The Mavericks are simply undervalued right now due to having lost 6 of their last 8. They also come in off an ugly 13-point home loss to the Thunder. 

On the flip side of this, the Nuggets are getting some love from the books off a 87-81 win at the Clippers as a 11-point underdog. That was a fluke win more than anything, as the Clippers shot a miserable 35.3% from the field. Prior to that, Denver had lost each of their first 3 games after the All-Star break and I just don't see the energy being there for this one. Keep in mind the Nuggets will being playing their 2nd straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. 

Mavericks are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games against bad defensive teams that are allowing 99+ points/game, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 against at team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Denver is just 2-7 ATS this season off an upset win as a road dog. Lay the points!

4* NBA Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavs/Raptors UNDER

The Cavaliers lead the Eastern Conference with an overall record of 41-15, but the Raptors are within striking distance. Toronto is just 3-games back at 38-18. This is a statement game for both teams and I look for both to come out with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball. 

Both of these teams are very strong defensively. Cleveland comes in allowing just 95.4 ppg on the road, while the Raptors are giving up just 96.7 ppg at home. These two teams combined for 222 points in a 122-100 Cavaliers win at home back on 1/4. The total for that game was just 194. I know they flew over the mark, but a 14.5 point adjustment is too much! 

UNDER is 14-4 in the Raptors last 18 home games after playing in a game where 215 or more combined points were scored and 8-3 in their last 11 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. UNDER is also 15-6 in Cleveland's last 21 against the Eastern Conference, 47-19 in their last 66 against an opponent that allowed 100+ in their previous game and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 100+ in their last contest. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Knicks -

New York is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Magic. The Knicks have lost 9 of their last 10 overall, but I believe there is a lot of fight left in this team. They certainly came to play last time out at Indiana, where they lost by just 3-points as a 6-point dog. I look for New York to come out extremely motivated at home tonight, as they desperately need a win to get this thing headed back in the right direction. 

Luckily for the Knicks they catch the Magic in a tough spot. Orlando will be playing in the 2nd game of the a back-to-back set and are going to find it difficult to get excited about this matchup after laying it all on the line last night at home against the Warriors. A game they were competitive in up until late in the 4th quarter. Orlando also has to have some tired legs. Their last two games have seen combined scores of 239 and 244. 

Magic are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after giving up 125 or more. Knicks are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent (2 straight losses) and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 off a road loss by 3-points or less. Lay the points! 

4* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Suns +

Phoenix comes into this game off a 40-point loss at the Clippers on Monday and have now lost 12 straight overall. As bad it looks for the Suns, I think they are showing great value here as a home dog against the Nets. Brooklyn is a mere 4-20 on the road this season and come in off a 104-112 loss at Portland on Tuesday. The Nets played well in that game, but keep in mind it was being televised on NBATV, so there was some incentive to show up. 

I don't see Brooklyn coming out with that same intensity against a Suns team that hasn't won since  late January. Not only am I expecting Phoenix to come out inspired off that embarrassing loss to LA, but they also desperately want to get interim head coach Earl Watson his first win. 

The Nets only won by 3-points at home back on 12/01 against the Suns and that was with Brooklyn shooting 48.8% from the field. Phoenix has the bigs inside with Chandler and Len to keep Lopez in check and that's really the one guy you need to be able to stop to keep Brooklyn's offense in check. 

Nets are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record, 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after covering last time out. Phoenix on the other hand is 8-1 ATS this season off a home loss by 15 or more points and have won these games by nearly 4.0 ppg. Take the points!