3* Oddsmakers Error on LA Clippers -

This is an opportunity for Doc Rivers to get some revenge against his former team. This will be the first visit to TD Garden since Rivers coached his last game with the Celtics on May 3rd. He comes into this matchup with a team that is loaded with talent, and I expect the Clippers to be very well prepared for this game.

The Clippers are averaging 104.1 points per game. They will play against a Celtics defense that has been somewhat soft on their home court. Boston is allowing 96.1 points per game overall, but when playing at home they allow slightly more points at 97.6 per game. The Clippers on the other hand step up their level of defensive play in road games. They have held opponents to 97.6 points per game, but should easily keep Boston under that number since the Celtics are a below average team offensively.

The Clippers are also coming into this game with a day of rest, while Boston is playing on back-to-back nights. Boston has struggled against good teams, posting a 1-4 ATS record in their last five games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. The Clippers are 27-12 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, and that is a trend that should continue today.

3* No Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats -

The Magic have been horrible on the road. They have a 1-10 record, and the defense is giving up 106.5 points per game. Charlotte should have no problem putting up a big number against their soft defense. Charlotte averages just 92.2 points per game, but they dominate the boards and avoid turnovers so they should easily exceed that number in this game.

Defensively the Bobcats have played well this year. They are holding opponents to 92.4 points per game. A big reason for their defensive success is because they are +4 in the rebounding margin. In road games the Magic are -8 in rebounding margin. Those rebounds and less turnovers will translate into more shots per game, and thus the Bobcats should score more points than normal against the Magic.

This matchup fits into a system to play on a team like Charlotte when they have covered the spread in five of their last six games, and they have won 40% to 49% of their games on the season when facing a bad team that has won only 25% to 40% of their games. This system is 72-35 (67%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Heavy Hitter on Timberwolves +

The Detroit Pistons are a very poor free throw shooting team, and in a game that should be close game I like the Timberwolves to pick up the win. Minnesota is shooting 80% from the free throw line, while the Pistons are averaging just 67.7% from the line. The Timberwolves are the better scoring team in general, averaging 104.7 points per game. Meanwhile, the Pistons have been scoring 98.7 points per game on their home court.

Neither of these teams has played well defensively, but again I have to give the edge to Minnesota. The Timberwolves are playing with two days of rest while Detroit is playing on a single day. Minnesota is a great rebounding team, pulling in an average of 55 boards per game. Winning the rebounding margin and shooting better from the free throw line will be the key to Minnesota picking up a win in the game the oddsmakers expect to be very close.

This matchup fits into a system to play on a road team like Minnesota when the line is +3 to -3, they are coming off a home loss, and they are a well rested team playing just their third game or less in the last 10 days. This system is 34-10 (77%) against the spread. Also, the Pistons are 0-7-1 in their last eight games against Northwest division teams, and 6-20-1 in their last 27 games against Western Conference opponents.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Sacramento Kings +

The Kings got off to a slow start this season, but they have been playing a lot better recently. They have been within six points or less in five of their last six games, and I think covering a five point number against the Mavericks will be a task they can easily accomplish. Ben McLemore has been improving quickly, and with that improvement he has seen a rise in playing time. He hit a three-pointer that took the Kin=gs to overtime Saturday on the road against Utah. McLemore is a matchup nightmare for the Mavericks.

Dallas is coming off a hard fought battle with Portland on Saturday, and that has them playing in a letdown spot today. The defense has not been good this season, especially when playing on the road. The Mavericks are allowing 102.2 points per game on the road, which is a big reason they are just 4-6 straight up in those games.

The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous games. That angle matches up nicely with the fact that Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in their last six games when their opponent allowed 100 points or more in their previous game. The Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games played on a single day of rest.

4* Total Dominator on Warriors/Bobcats UNDER

Golden State is coming off a very strong defensive performance, holding the Memphis Grizzlies to just 82 points. The Warriors have struggled on the road this year with a 6-7 record, and a big reason for that is because of the offensive production hit they take when playing away from home. Against a team with a losing record like Charlotte you would think Golden State could score at-will, but the numbers indicate a different story.

The Bobcats have held opponents to a mere 91.5 points per game. They have a very underrated defense. The Bobcats have not done a lot of scoring this year, which only adds value to the under. They are scoring just 89.6 points per game overall, and only get a small boost in production to 90.1 points per game when playing at home. Both of these teams have strong under records. The under is 9-4 in Golden State's 13 road games, and 14-5 overall for the Bobcats.

This matchup fits into a system to play on the under when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points, and one of the teams is coming off a home win by 10 points or more and playing against an opponent off a road win by 10 points or more. This system has a 111-67 record towards the under. When playing with a day of rest the under is 14-5 in Golden State's last 19 games.

3* No Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats +

Golden State has not played well on the road this year, and there is a lot of value on Charlotte as an underdog in this game. The Bobcats are 5-6 at home, while the Warriors are 6-7 on the road. The Bobcats are playing on two days of rest after putting a 105-88 beat down on the 76ers last Friday. That was a confidence boosting win for a team that is just two games below .500 on the season.

The Bobcats defense gives them a big advantage over Golden State. The Warriors have been a streaky shooting team, and against a stingy defense like Charlotte's I think they will struggle to get points on the board. The Bobcats are holding opponents to a mere 91.5 points per game this season, and that has come against opponents whose offensive average is 97.7 points per game.

The Warriors have lacked consistency this year. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. They face a Bobcats team that is 4-0 ATS in their last four games. With Charlotte having an extra day of rest over their opponent, home court advantage, and the better defense they should be able to cover this six-point line.

3* Main Event on OKC Thunder -

Oklahoma City is a tough team to beat when they are playing on their home court. The Thunder are a perfect 9-0 at home, and there is a lot of value here since they are such a small favorite against the Pacers. Oklahoma City is averaging 105.7 points per game at home, while the defense is allowing a mere 97.1 points per game.

This is Indiana's fifth consecutive road game, and it will be the second time they have played on back-to-back nights during that stretch. The last time the Pacers played on back-to-back nights on the road they were handed a loss by the Portland Trailblazers. The Thunder on the other hand are coming into this game with a full day of rest which gives them even more value.

The Thunder are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams winning over 60% of their games on the road. In head-to-head meetings between these teams Oklahoma City has a very clear edge. In the last five games the Pacers have a 1-4 ATS record against the Thunder. Indiana's tough five-game road stretch will catch up with them today, so lay the points on the Thunder.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Orlando +

The Rockets are getting too much respect from the oddsmakers tonight. Orlando has had no problem scoring points on the road. They are averaging 99.7 points per game in their nine road games this season, and they face a Rockets defense that has allowed an average of 101.8 points per game. Houston has lost two of their last three games both straight up and against the spread, so they are not coming into this game with a lot of momentum.

Jameer Nelson is back in the lineup for Orlando. In his first game back from being out with a foot injury Nelson added 13 points and nine assists. Against the Rockets soft defense Nelson should have no problems finding an open man. Arron Affalo is coming off a 20 point performance. The Rockets are playing through several injuries tonight. Harden has an undisclosed injury, and while he is expected to play, I don't expect him to be at 100 percent.

This matchup fits into a system to play against favorites of 10 points or more like Houston after allowing 85 points or less in their previous game. This system has been very profitable over the long term, posting a 406-294 (58%) ATS record. I think the Magic play with a little extra motivation tonight since they will be up against Dwight Howard. Howard has bashed the Magic since leaving the team for the Lakers. Orlando has taken five of the last seven meetings between these teams, so this should be a close game.

5* Total No Brainer on Jazz/Kings OVER

The total for this game is set much lower than it should be. Neither of these teams has played well defensively this season, and they are both capable of putting up big numbers on the offensive end of the court. The Sacramento Kings are allowing 102.2 points per game on the road this season. The Jazz get a big boost in offensive production on their home court, and against a soft Kings defense I think they will more than account for their half of the points needed to send this game over the total.

The Kings lack of success this year has not come from a lack of scoring. They are averaging 97.1 points per game, and they have a great opportunity to build on that number against a Jazz defense that is allowing 101.5 points per game. Utah's defense has been soft regardless of venue, so the fact that Sacramento is on the road should not slow them down in this matchup.

This matchup fits into a system to play the over when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points, when a team like Utah has won less than 25% of their games, they are coming off a road loss against a division rival, and they are playing a team with a losing record. This system is 38-11 (78%) in favor of the over. Expect a shootout between two bad teams because neither have played well on the defensive end of the court.

4* Heavy Hitter on Brooklyn Nets -

There is no denying the amount of talent on this Brooklyn Nets team. They are off to a slow start this season, but should get a much needed win tonight over one of the NBA's worst teams. Milwaukee is 4-15 on the season, and they have a mere two wins on their home court.

Brooklyn may not be lighting up the scoreboard on a nightly basis, but they should have no problem outpacing a Bucks team that averages just 88.6 points per game at home. The Nets are scoring 94.8 points per game on the road, and they have the benefit of facing a soft Bucks defense that is allowing 99.9 points per game this year. Brooklyn is also playing with a day of rest while Milwaukee is playing on back-to-back nights.

The Nets have responded well to a bad loss. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Milwaukee is 16-35 ATS dating back to last season against Eastern Conference opponents. They are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight games when playing without a day of rest.

3* Total Dominator on Nets/Bucks OVER

With Milwaukee playing on back-to-back nights I expect their defense to be even worse than it normally is. They are facing a Brooklyn team playing with a much needed day of rest, so the Nets should be able to put a big number on the scoreboard. Milwaukee is allowing 99.9 points per game this season.

The Nets should score a lot of points against Milwaukee, but they will definitely allow a lot of points too. Brooklyn is giving up over 103 points per game on the road this season. Seven of the Nets last eight games have had the total set higher than the line we are getting today, and I think that is an overly aggressive move by the oddsmakers which creates value on the over.

The over is 11-1 in Brooklyn's last 12 games against a team winning less than 40% of their games. It is also 16-5-1 when when Nets are playing on one day of rest. The Bucks are also trending towards the over. They have gone over the total in five of their last seven games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Memphis Grizzlies

The Golden State Warriors have not played well on the road this season. They have a 5-6 record in their 11 road games, with the defense allowing an average of 101.1 points per game. They have been plagued by turnover issues, and that gives the Memphis Grizzlies a significant matchup advantage on their home court.

The Grizzlies defense has been stingy this year. They are holding opponents to just 95.9 points per game. What makes that number so impressive is the fact that their opponents scoring average has been 100.7 points per game on the season. The Grizzlies are also a very good ball control team. They average just 14 turnovers per game.

Golden State is playing in a back-to-back situation. Last night they were on the road against Houston, and then had to catch a red-eye to get to Memphis for today's game. The Warriors are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games against Western Conference opponents. The Grizzlies on the other hand have posted a 10-1-1 ATS record in their last 12 games against the Pacific division.

5* Vegas Insider on Utah Jazz +

The Portland Trailblazers have been playing at an unsustainable level. They are a team that is nowhere near as good as their 16-3 record. There is a lot of value on Utah as a double-digit underdog in this game. The Trailblazers have not been a strong defensive team, allowing an average of 99.9 points per game. They have posted a 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing record.

The Jazz have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games. They are playing a lot better recently, winning three of their last five games straight up. Utah has shot over 50 percent from the field in two of their last three games, and I like their chances to keep this game close considering how well the team is playing right now.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system. You should play against favorites of 10 points or more when they have three consecutive wins, and a winning overall record on the season. This system identifies teams that oddsmakers overvalue, and it has resulted in a 125-84 (62%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Memphis Grizzlies -

The Grizzlies are an easy call at home against the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles has struggled on the road this season, posting a 4-5 record in their nine road games. The Clippers have lost two straight games, and they have already failed in their first attempt to get revenge against the team that handed them a first-round playoff loss last season. Los Angeles looked horrible on Wednesday night, getting crushing in a 107-97 loss at Atlanta.

The biggest problem for the Clippers this season is their complete lack of defense. They are allowing 102.1 points per game, which is a big issue when your team only averages 100.1 points per game on the road. I think Los Angeles will struggle to reach their typical scoring average in this game because the Grizzlies have one of the most underrated defenses in basketball this season. They have held opponents to 95.6 points per game, and they are coming off a day of rest after a confidence boosting win over Phoenix on Tuesday.

The oddsmakers have a bad habit of undervaluing the Grizzlies against high scoring teams. Memphis is 19-8 ATS against teams scoring 103 points per game or more. The Grizzlies have been doing a great job of taking care of the basketball. They are 27-14 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. With a day of rest coming into this game, and the Clippers playing in a back-to-back situation, there is a lot of value on Memphis tonight.

3* Main Event on New Orleans Pelicans -

The oddsmakers seem to have overreacted to the loss of Anthony Davis. Even without Davis in the lineup they are coming off their third consecutive win. The Pelicans three wins all came on the road, and now they are playing for the home crowd and coming off a day of rest. That gives them a significant advantage over the Mavericks in this game.

Dallas has played poorly on the road. They have a 2-6 record, and the defense is allowing 102.4 points per game. They also take a big dip in scoring, going from 103.7 points per game overall, to just 99.5 points in road games. New Orleans on the other hand should be able to score at-will in this game. They are averaging 104.2 points per game at home this season.

The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Western Conference opponents, and they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record. In head-to-head meetings between these teams the Mavericks are 4-11 when playing as the road team. With Dallas playing on back-to-back nights, the Pelicans should have no problem picking up a big win in this game.

5* Total Dominator on Mavericks/Pelicans OVER

The total on this game is much lower than it should be given the way these teams have been playing recently. In their last five games, the Pelicans are averaging 109.8 points per game. They should have no problem putting up another big number tonight against a Mavericks defense that is allowing 102.4 points per game on the road.

The Mavericks should also score a lot of points in this game. New Orleans is allowing 101.9 points per game this season, and they have done so against opponents whose offensive average is just 97.7 points per game. The Dallas Mavericks come into this game scoring 103.7 points per game, and with the Pelican's complete lack of defense they have a very good chance to improve on that number today.

This matchup fits into a system to play the over when a team like New Orleans is coming off two consecutive road wins by five points or less, and they are playing in the first half of the season. The over has a 40-11 (78%) record in the last 51 games fitting into this scenario. In the last nine head-to-head meetings between these teams being played in New Orleans the over has a 7-2 record. I expect tonight's matchup to be another offensive showcase sending this game over the total.

4* Heavy Hitter on Sacramento Kings +

The Kings are not getting enough credit on their home court tonight. Oklahoma City has played three games in the last five days. The Kings on the other hand did not have to play last Wednesday, and I think their favorable rest profile is a big factor in this game. Sacramento managed to stay within six points against the Clippers last Friday, and they were within two points against Golden State on Sunday so they are playing well since the small break around Thanksgiving.

Oklahoma City has played some horrible defense on the road this season. They are allowing 102.3 points per game, and the Thunder are just 3-3 in road games this year. Sacramento is playing a lot better now than they did to start the season. They may not be winning more games, but they are definitely playing in some close games and covering the spread more often. The Kings are averaging 102.4 points per game over their last give games, and they have a 3-2 ATS record. They have played a very tough schedule during that stretch, and I think that has them well prepared for today's game against the Thunder.

The Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team winning 60% or more of their games on the season. They are up against a Thunder team that is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on a single day of rest. Oklahoma City evidently does not spend a lot of time preparing for opponents with a losing record. They have a 2-5 ATS record in their last seven games against teams winning less than 40% of their games. I think the Thunder will come out flat against Sacramento, and this game will end up being very close.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +

The Jazz are not getting enough respect from the oddsmakers on their home court tonight. This is Houston's fourth game in the last six days, while Utah has played just two games during that span. I expect to see Houston beginning to wear down, especially after battling it out with the Spurs in their last game. The Rockets defense is already bad, but it should be even worse than normal today.

The Jazz may not have a great overall record, but two of their three wins have come on their home court, and they are a respectable 4-4 ATS in home games this season. The defense has been solid, allowing 99.2 points per game at home when their opponents are averaging over 100 points per game on the season. I think Utah has a great opportunity to boost their own scoring average today against a Rockets defense that is allowing 109.4 points in road games this season.

Houston is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games against a team with a losing record at home. This trend indicates the oddsmakers are giving the high scoring Rockets far too much credit against bad teams. The Jazz are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record, and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games against Southwest division opponents. I like Utah to keep this game close, and they should have no problem covering such a large number today.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Sacramento Kings +

Golden State has struggled on the road this year. They have a 4-6 record, so it is a bit shocking to see them as a favorite in this game. Their defense is soft, allowing 99.9 points in road games this season, and they are having a lot of issues with turning the ball over. The Warriors average 18 turnovers per game on the road, while the Kings have just 12 turnovers per game overall.

Sacramento's biggest advantage is their defense. They have held opponents to 98.6 points per game at home, and are allowing opponents to shoot a mere 35% from beyond the three-point line. That will be a major issue for the Warriors as they average 24 three-point attempts per game on the road, and are used to converting over 40% of those attempts. I think the Warriors will have a bad shooting night against this underrated Kings defense.

In the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams the Warriors are 0-4-1 ATS. Both of these teams are coming off back-to-back losses, and with home court advantage I think he Kings have a very good chance to end their current losing streak. Over their last five games Sacramento has averaged 101.2 points per game, and they are pulling in over 55 rebounds per game in that stretch.

3* No Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers +

The Philadelphia 76ers are receiving way too many points against this 6-10 Detroit Pistons team. Detroit has been horrible defensively, allowing opponents to score 100.3 points per game against them. They are 4-15 against the spread when facing a team that averages 53 or more rebounds per game.

Philadelphia will be one of the best scoring teams the Pistons have faced this year. The 76ers are averaging 103.2 points per game overall this season. They have barely been slowed down when playing on the road, still averaging an even 103 points in this game. They are an outstanding rebounding team that has pulled in 56 boards per game, and if the dominate the boards in this game they will not even need the 8.5 points to cover the spread.

The 76ers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against opponents from the central division. They are a team that responds well to a bad loss, posting an 8-2 ATS record when coming off a double-digit loss at home. The Pistons on the other hand are a mere 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. Take the points with Philadelphia in this game, because it will be a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect.

4* Total Annihilator on Rocket/Spurs UNDER

The Spurs should be able to control the pace of this game on their home court, and that means these teams will not be getting into an offensive shootout. San Antonio has held opponents to 89.3 points per game at home this season. The Spurs are scoring 101.4 points per game at home, and I doubt they will exceed that number today against a very underrated Rockets defense.

Houston may allow a lot of points per game, but that is because they also score a lot of points. Against the Spurs defense that scoring will be slowed down dramatically, and I think the talent of this defense will show in this game. The Rockets have actually held opponents to a lower shooting percentage from the field than the Spurs have this season. They are allowing those opponents to shoot 41.8% while San Antonio is allowing 42.6% from the field.

The under is 14-4 in San Antonio's games against teams that are scoring 103 or more points per game. The under is also 17-6 in San Antonio's last 23 games against teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game. The Rockets are also trending towards the under. They have gone under the total in nine of their last 13 games following an ATS win, and are 29-14 to the under against a team with a winning record.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Memphis Grizzlies -

The Brooklyn Nets are really having problems this year. They are off to a 4-12 start this season, and they are showing no signs of improvement in the near future. The defense has been horrible, giving up 105.2 points per game on the road this season. They are 2-8 straight up on the road and 3-7 ATS in those games.

Memphis may not be a high scoring team, but that should change today against the Nets non-existent defense. The Grizzlies have been solid on the defensive end of the court. They are holding opponents to 95.9 points per game, and they should improve on that number today. Brooklyn has struggled to get points on the board, averaging just 94.6 points per game on the road this year.

The Grizzlies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when they are coming off a performance in which they scored 100 points or more. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on two days of rest. The Nets are playing on back-to-back nights, so the Grizzlies also have the rest factor in their favor. I think Memphis dominates this game from the start, and they should pick up a double-digit win.

3* No Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors +

The Toronto Raptors are a better team than they get credit for, and I like their chances to play a close game with Miami today. The Raptors have won two of their last three games, and came close to picking up a win in their last game over Brooklyn. They come into this matchup with two days of rest and preparation time while the Heat have just one day off and are coming from a road game against Cleveland.

Toronto has held its opponents to 96.9 points per game this year. Their opponents offensive average is over 97 points per game, so the Raptors are a strong team defensively. They should have no problem putting up points in this game since they are averaging 98.4 per game when playing at home. These teams met in Toronto earlier this season with the Raptors losing by nine points. That game was much closer than the final score, and I think Toronto plays for revenge today.

The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. This matchup fits a system to play on home underdogs like Toronto when they are an extremely well rested team playing five or less games in 14 days when they have a losing record on the season. This system is 41-15 ATS over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -

There are few teams in basketball scoring as many points as the Houston Rockets this season. The Rockets average 108.7 points per game, and they have the luxury of facing a soft Hawks defense in this game. Atlanta is allowing an average of 101.1 points in road games. Offensively the Hawks have scored a lot of points this year, but they are still 8.5 points per game behind the Rockets.

Houston has yesterday off to rest and prepare for this game against Atlanta. The Hawks on the other hand are coming off a beat down last night at the hands of the Orlando Magic. Getting clubbed by 17 points on your home court would take a lot out of any team, and I think they will struggle to keep pace with this high-powered Rockets team today.

This game falls into a very profitable system. You should play against road teams like Atlanta when they are coming off a double-digit loss as a favorite of six points or more, and they are a team that has won 51% to 60% of their games on the season, and they are playing a team with a winning record. This system is 26-6 (81%) against the spread.

3* Total Dominator on Wizards/Bucks OVER

It is a little surprising to see such a low total in this game given how poorly these defenses have played this season. The Wizards are allowing 102 points per game, while the Bucks are not far behind at 100.2 points allowed. Both teams are allowing opponents to shoot over 47 percent from the field.

The Washington Wizards are averaging 100.3 points per game this year. They should have no problem exceeding that number against Milwaukee today. Washington has been on fire on three-point attempts, making 41.2 percent in the road this season. Milwaukee is also a team that shoots well on three-point attempts. They average 41 percent from beyond the arch in home games.

I have these teams playing in a shootout, and I expect to see a lot of three-point shots falling. The over is 11-5 in Washington's last 16 games against Eastern Conference opponents. This matchup falls into a system to play the over when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points and one of the teams is off a road loss against a division opponent like Milwaukee, and they are a terrible team winning 25% of their games or less and facing another team with a losing record. This system is 37-11 (77%) in favor of the over.

3* Oddsmakers Error on LA Lakers +

The wrong team is favored in this game, and the Lakers should have no problem covering the spread against the Wizards tonight. Defensively Washington has been horrible this year. They are allowing opponents to score 101.8 points per game on their home court. The Wizards are getting crushed on the boards, pulling in just 49 per game while their opponents average 56 rebounds per game.

The Lakers defense is a lot better than it gets credit for. They have faced a tough schedule, where their opponents are averaging 102 points per game. The defense has held those opponents slightly under that average. Offensively Los Angeles is having no problem getting points on the board. They are scoring 99.6 points per game, and against Washington's soft defense they should easily exceed that number today.

This matchup falls into a system to play on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Lakers when they are coming off two or more consecutive home wins in the first half of the season. This system has a 48-20 (71%) ATS record over the last five seasons. The Lakers should win this game, but we will take the points since they are on the road.

3* Bailout Blowout on New Orleans Pelicans +

The Pelicans have played extremely well this season, so it is a bit surprising to see them getting double-digit points against the Spurs in this game. New Orleans averages 101.3 points per game this year. They have been very efficient, committing just 13 turnovers per game, and averaging 10 steals. They have held opponents to 98.8 points per game.

The Pelicans are the more rested team, and that gives them a big advantage over the aging Spurs. San Antonio is playing their fourth game in the last six days. New Orleans played their last game on Friday, which was their third consecutive win. They had all weekend to rest and prepare for the Spurs.

This matchup falls into a system to play against home favorites of 10 points or more like San Antonio when they are coming off three or more consecutive wins. This system is 127-76 (62%) against the spread over the last five seasons. There is too much upside on the Pelicans in this game, and the double-digit line makes them a very strong value play.

5* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies +

After a slow start this season the Grizzlies have really turned things on recently. They have won three of their last four games coming into today's matchup with Houston. They have an extra day of rest over the Rockets, and that gives them a big advantage in this game. Defensively, Houston has struggled on the road this year, allowing 113.8 points per game.

The Memphis defense has been tough, allowing just 96.3 points per game against opponents whose offensive average is over 100 points per game. The Grizzlies should also dominate the turnover margin in this game. They have just 14 turnovers per game compared to 18 from the Rockets. With the better defense, and more efficient offense I think the Grizzlies take this game at home.

The Houston Rockets are 3-13 ATS over the last three seasons when playing in a road game against a division opponents. They face a Memphis team that is 27-13 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. In head-to-head matchups between these teams, the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Rockets are 0-5 the last five games played in Memphis and 3-7 in the last 10 meetings overall.

3* Main Event on Utah Jazz +

The Utah Jazz are getting way too many points against an Oklahoma City team who has struggled defensively this season. The Thunder are allowing 101.1 points per game, and they face a Jazz team that is playing much better than the oddsmakers have anticipated right now. Utah has covered the spread in five of their last six games.

The Utah Jazz are 15-5 ATS after having lost six of their last seven games straight up. They are also 18-8 ATS when playing eight or more games in a 14 day span. The last two head-to-head games between these teams have been decided by an average of just 6.5 points. I think Utah is certainly talented enough to keep this game within single digits against the Thunder.

This matchup falls into a system to play on road underdogs of 10 or more points when they have a losing record on the season and are coming off a road loss by 10 or more points. The system has a 99-57 (64%) ATS record. It is a great way to identify teams that the oddsmakers undervalue based on a poor straight up record.

4* Vegas Insider on Denver Nuggets -

The Denver Nuggets are a very good team offensively this year, and they should be able to score at-will against Dallas. The Nuggets are scoring 104.3 points per game at home, and they are shooting an impressive 41.1% from beyond the three point line. They are a great rebounding team pulling in 57 boards per game overall, while the Mavericks have averaged just 48 total rebounds per game.

Defensively Dallas is a mess. They are allowing 104.8 points per game on the road, which is right in line with their overall points against average of 104.2 per game. They are getting out rebounded, and have had a lot of turnover problems when playing on the road. The Nuggets on the other hand have been the model of efficiency at home, with just 13 turnovers and posting a 4-2 record.

When the oddsmakers are expecting a shootout, the Nuggets have fared well against the spread. They are 20-9 ATS when the total is 210 points or more over the last two seasons. The Nuggets are also a team that steps up their level of play against other good teams. They are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against a team winning 60% or more of their games. Denver has dominated against Western Conference opponents posting a 4-1 ATS record in their last five games,.

3* No Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings +

While the Clippers have a winning record at 8-5 on the season, they have not been the dominating team many expected. Their defense has been flat out horrible, which will make it hard to cover a double-digit line like this one against Sacramento. Los Angeles is allowing 108.7 points per game at home this season.

Sacramento is one of the few teams in the league that seems to be playing better offensively on the road than they do at home. They average 97 points per game, which is a respectable number given the talented defenses they have faced throughout the first 11 games of the season. The Kings are a very efficient offense, averaging just 12 turnovers per game. The Clippers live and die by their ability to force turnovers, and they won't have that luxury in this game.

The Clippers have a tendency to quickly get too much respect from the oddsmakers, especially when playing a losing team. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a losing straight-up record. The Kings on the other hand are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games. They are also 5-1-1 in their last seven road games against a team with a winning record at home. There is a lot of value on Sacramento on a double-digit line today.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Toronto Raptors -

The Wizards defense has been horrible this year. They are allowing 102.9 points per game, and opponents have shot 47.3% from the field against them. Even with a bad defense the Wizards could still win games, but the offense is not scoring enough to cover their poor defensive play. Washington is scoring 98.3 points per game on the road, and they will struggle to match that number against this tough Raptors defense.

Toronto is scoring 98.6 points per game this year, but they should exceed that number today. They have several favorable matchup advantages over the Wizards, and should score at-will against Washington's horrible defense. Toronto has held opponents to 97.2 points per game, allowing slightly less than their opponents offensive scoring average. The Wizards on the other hand are scoring less than their opponents have allowed on average (100.2 scored to 101.3 surrendered), and the defense is giving up more points than those opponents typically score (102.9 points allowed to 101 points scored).

This matchup falls into a system to play on a team like Toronto when they have covered the spread in four of their last six games and they are winning 40% to 49% of their games straight up, and playing against a bad team that is winning between 25-40% of their games. This system is 68-34 ATS over the last five seasons. Lay the points with the home team because Toronto should dominate this game.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Denver Nuggets +

The Chicago Bulls will be without Jimmy Butler in this game. Butler is a defensive star, and his absence on the court gives Denver a very strong matchup advantage. The fact that Derrick Rose is posting career lows this season will become even more obvious with Butler gone. He is averaging just 15 points per game, shooting 34.4 percent from the field. Rose is coming off a 12 point performance against the Bobcats, and the Bulls are really struggling to keep there current win streak alive.

The Denver Nuggets have a great opportunity to snap Chicago's win steak today. The Nuggets score a lot of points, especially when playing at home. I don't think Chicago can keep pace with Denver, and since Butler is gone the Bulls won't be slowing the Nuggets down. Denver averages 105.8 points per game at home this season.

The Nuggets always step of their level of play at home when facing a good team. They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams that are outscoring their opponents by three or more points per game. Denver also owns a 17-6 ATS record in their last 23 games against Central division opponents.

3* Total Dominator on Grizzlies/Warriors OVER

The Grizzlies have looked soft on defense this season, and that could be big trouble tonight when they are on the road against Golden State. The Warriors are averaging 110.8 points per game at home this season. They are beating their opponents defensive average for points allowed by a double-digit margin. The Grizzlies have allowed 97.2 points per game this year.

Memphis may not be playing great defense, but the offense is performing well. The Grizzlies average 46.8% shooting from the field this season, and should have no problem putting points on the board against a Golden State defense that is surrendering 96.3 points per game. The over is 5-2 in the Grizzlies last seven games against teams from the Pacific division.

In head-to-head meetings between these teams the over is 5-2 in the last seven. Memphis has gone over the total in four of their last five road games against teams winning 60% or more of their games at home. The over is also 9-4 in the Grizzlies last 13 games when coming off a performance in which they allowed 100 points or more.

4* Vegas Insider on Cleveland Cavaliers -

The Washington Wizards are a bad team. They have lost five of their six games played on the road. The Wizards defense is allowing 104.1 points per game this season, which will be a welcome sign for this Cavaliers team that has averaged 99.5 points per game when playing at home.

Cleveland has had three days of rest prior to tonight's game against the Wizards. That should have them well prepared to take on the Wizards. Washington played last night at home against Minnesota and has to travel to Cleveland for tonight's game. I expect the wear and tear of playing in a back-t0-back situation to have the Wizards look a little flat footed tonight.

The Washington Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five games when playing without a day of rest between games. They are also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team winning 60% or more of their home games. The Cavaliers on the other hand are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing with three or more days of rest, and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team winning 40% or less of their road games.

3* Total Dominator on Heat/Hawks UNDER

The Miami Heat are playing good defense right now. They have held opponents to 98.6 points per game, and they should be able to improve on that number today against an Atlanta team that is very overrated. The Hawks have played a lot of teams that don't bother trying on the defensive end of the court, which has inflated their offensive numbers. The Miami Hear are not one of those teams.

Both teams are playing on two days of rest, so they should come out looking sharp on the defensive end of the court. Tired teams usually give up on defense first, so the fact that both teams are well rested puts a lot of value on the under. The Heat are have gone under 22 of their last 31 games against division opponents.

This matchup falls into a system to play the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points, and their is a good team like Atlanta winning 60% to 75% of their games, playing another team with a winning record in the first half of the season. The under has a 48-21 record in this situation. There is also another system to play the under when one of those teams is off a road win against a division opponent, like Miami is, when they are facing another division rival. The under has a 62-28 record over the last five seasons in this situation.

3* No Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz +

The Golden State Warriors have struggled on the road this season. They have a 2-3 record in their five road games, and they scoring average drops by almost five points per game. The defense also performs much worse when on the road allowing 98.6 points per game.

The Jazz may not have a great record straight up, but they should have no problem keeping this game close against the Warriors. Utah averages 93 points per game at home. They are a solid rebounding team, and do a decent job forcing turnovers. The Jazz are the more motivated team in this game. This is a home-and-home situation for these teams, and they will be seeking revenge after getting beat by Golden State on the road Saturday night.

The Golden State Warriors play so well at home that often times the oddsmakers will overvalue them when they are on the road. They are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games when coming off two or more consecutive home wins. The Jazz are player better recently, and I look for them to put on a very strong performance tonight. They are 9-1 ATS in home games after having lost three of their last four games.

3* Main Event on Sacramento Kings +

The Kings should not be underdogs on their home court against Memphis. The Grizzlies are scoring a mere 90.2 points per game on the road, and have a 1-3 record in those four games. Memphis has also posted a 0-3-1 ATS record in those games. They face a Kings team that has earned both of their wins playing on their home court.

Sacramento is averaging 95.5 points per game at home this year. They should have no problem exceeding that number against the Grizzlies today since Memphis is allowing 98.2 points per game when playing on the road. Defensively Sacramento is a fairly even matchup with Memphis, and with home court advantage they should be win this game in a close one.

The Memphis Grizzlies are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing one one day of rest. They are also 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games against Western Conference opponents. In head-to-head matchups between these teams, the home team has a 5-2 ATS record.

3* No Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors -

The Jazz make a strong argument for worst team in the NBA this season. The defense has given up over 100 points per game, while the offense averages a mere 88.8 points per game. It has been especially bad on the road where they are 0-5 straight up and 0-4-1 against the spread. In those road games Utah is scoring a mere 84.6 points per game.

The Golden State Warriors have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA. They are scoring 113 points per game at home and have a 4-0 record this season. They have held opponents to 97.7 points per game, but should improve on that number tonight against a Jazz team that is playing on back-to-back nights. Golden State is playing with a day of rest and with home court advantage over Utah this game should be a blowout.

Utah is 6-16 ATS in road games in the first part of the season dating back the last two seasons. They are also 29-49 ATS against excellent shooting teams that make over 46% of their attempts and allow less than 43% shooting defensively. All signs point to Golden State dominating this game from start to finish so lay the points with the home team.

4* Vegas Insider on Houston Rockets -

The Denver Nuggets have struggled on the road. They are 1-2 straight up, but have averaged just 97 points per game. That may not seem all that bad until you consider the fact that the Nuggets have allowed opponents to score 102.4 points per game this season. Denver is giving up a lot of rebounds, a lot of points and they are not forcing many turnovers.

Houston has had no problem scoring points this year. They average 107.5 points per game, shooting 46.5% from the field. They have held opponents to 99.6 points per game at home this season. The Rockets can afford to give up more points than Denver has because their offense has the capability to score quickly and easily. With the Nuggets playing last night against Minnesota I expect their defense to look even worse than normal today.

This matchup falls into a system to play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Denver when they are a poor defensive team that is allowing over 99 points per game against an opponent after allowing 100 points or more in four straight games. This system is 60-29 against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Total No Brainer on Pacers/Bulls UNDER

With or without Derrick Rose, this total is set far too high. The Indiana Pacers have a great defense. They have held opponents to just 83.7 points per game this season. They are allowing 38.6% from the field, and have played just as good on the road as they do at home. Indiana has gone under the total in eight of their nine games this season.

The Chicago Bulls are also solid defensively. They have allowed 78.3 points per game at home, and 89.4 points per game overall this season. The Bulls have given up a 35.4% shooting percentage from the field. What makes this under even more likely is the fact that neither of these teams has been great offensively. The Pacers score 95.9 points per game this season, while the Bulls average 91.7 points per game at home.

This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when a team like Indiana is off a home blowout win by 20 points or more and playing an opponent off a road win by 10 points or more. This system is 96-48 in favor of the under. The Bulls have also gone under the total in five of their last six games.

3* No Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -

The New York Knicks have a great chance to pick up their second home win of the season in blowout fashion tonight. They face an Atlanta Hawks team that has given up 105.2 points per game on the road. Atlanta has allowed its opponents to shoot 46.5% from the field this season.

The Knicks are coming off a day of rest, while the Hawks played last night against Philadelphia. Many times it is hard for teams to string together two solid performances when they are playing on back-to-back nights and have to teal with traveling to a new venue. That bodes well for the Knicks, and I expect them to put up a big number against an Atlanta team that should look even worse than normal defensively.

The New York Knicks re 12-2 ATS in home games when playing their third game in four days. Atlanta is 14-25 ATS against good free throw shooting teams that are making over 76% of their attempts. The Knicks are shooting 80.7% from the free throw line in home games. Lay the points on New York because this game should be a blowout.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington Wizards -

Washington should have no problem putting up a big offensive number against the Cavaliers. Cleveland is allowing 100.3 points per game on the road, while their offense has put up a mere 86.2 points in those games. The Cavaliers have six of their seven losses on the road, and they have covered the spread just twice.

Washington is averaging 107 points per game at home. They have shot well from the three point line this year, hitting a 40.9% clip. The Wizards will also benefit from a couple of nights rest, while the Cavaliers have to overcome playing in a back-to-back situation after getting beat by Charlotte last night.

Cleveland is 5-18 ATS when playing eight or more games in the last 14 days. They are also 0-8 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Washington on the other hand is 13-2 ATS in home games after having lost four of their last six games.

3* No Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -

The Cavaliers are the better team in this game and they should have no problem covering a six-point line on their home court. Charlotte is averaging a mere 89.5 points per game on the road this season, while the defense is allowing 95.2 points in those games. Cleveland on the other hand has put up an impressive 106 points per game when playing at home.

Cleveland has also dominated the boards when playing at home. They have 60 total rebounds per game, including 14 on the offensive end. The Cavaliers have yet to be defeated on their home court, and they face a Bobcats team that is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games against a team with a winning record at home.

This matchup falls into a system to play against a team like Charlotte when they are being outscored by their opponents by three or more points per game when they are facing an opponent that gave up over 120 points in their previous game. This system is 73-38 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Rockets/Knicks OVER

Neither of these teams plays a lot of defense. The Houston Rockets are allowing 113 points per game when playing on the road, while the Knicks are allowing 103.5 points per game at home. The Knicks have gone over the total in four of their last five games, and the Rockets have gone over in their last two consecutive games.

Offensively these teams are capable of putting up some big numbers. Houston is scoring 113.7 points per game on the road this year. They are a great shooting team, averaging 49.7% from the field in those games. The Knicks are averaging 94 points per game at home, but they have played some solid defensive teams. That won't be the case tonight since the Rockets have been horrible defensively regardless of the venue they play in.

The Knicks have gone over the total in their last four games against Western Conference opponents. They are also 5-1 to the over in their last six games following an ATS win. Houston has gone over in four of their last five games against Atlantic division teams, and are 4-1 to the over in their last five games following an ATS loss. Expect a shootout in this game because both defenses have failed to show up at the start of the season.

4* Total Dominator on Lakers/Nuggets UNDER

This total appears to be set far too high given the lack of scoring from the Lakers and Nuggets this season. Los Angeles is shooting 42.1% from the field, and I expect another poor shooting performance tonight since the Lakers just played against New Orleans yesterday. When playing on the road the Lakers shooting average drops to 40.4% and they average a mere 95.5 points per game.

The Nuggets have also struggled to put points on the board this year. They are averaging 98.7 points per game and should struggle to reach 100 points again tonight against this Lakers team that has held three of their last four opponents under 100 points. Not surprisingly, the Lakers have gone under the total in three of their last four games.

The under is 5-2 in Denver's last seven games against Western Conference opponents and 4-1 in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. This matchup also falls into a system to play the under when one of the teams is coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more like the Lakers, and their opponent is off a road win by 10 points or more like Denver. This system is 96-47 in favor of the under.

3* No Doubt Rout on New York Knicks +

The Knicks are off to a slow start this year, but they are definitely the better team in this matchup. The Knicks defense has held opponents to an average of 86.5 points per game on the road this season. Atlanta on the other hand has allowed 102.1 points per game at home.

The Hawks have also benefited from a very soft schedule to open the season. Their opponents defensive averages have allowed over 100 points per game while those opponents have averaged well under 100 points per game scoring. The Knicks on the other hand have faced opponents that allow just 95.9 points per game. New York should have a big night offensively against this Hawks team that has given up a lot of points this season.

Atlanta is 6-18 ATS in home games when coming off one or more consecutive wins. This matchup falls into a system to play against home teams like Atlanta when they have won 51% to 60% of their games on the season and are playing in the month of November. This system is 56-28 against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Annihilator on Pelicans/Lakers UNDER

As bad as these teams have been shooting, this total seems to be quite a bit higher than it should be. The Pelicans average 94.3 points per game on the road, and that has come against opponents that are surrendering an average of 97 points per game. They are a below average team offensively, and that won't be changing in today's road game against the Lakers. The Pelican's defense has allowed just 94.7 points per game, a number they should match against the struggling Lakers.

Los Angeles has shot 40.6% from the field this season. Their opponents are allowing 99.9 points per game, yet they average just 97.2 points per game. This is another indicator for a below average offensive team. Defensively the Lakers statistics are a bit misleading. Their opponents have averaged 104.1 points per game, and Los Angeles allows just 102.5 points per game at home which tells me they are much better defensively than they get credit for.

With two below average offenses, and two undervalued defenses, there is a lot of value on the under in this game. This matchup falls into a system to play the under when a team like New Orleans is coming off an upset loss as a favorite when they had a losing record last season. This system is 41-14 (75%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -

The Chicago Bulls are the better team in this game, and they should have no problem dominating from start to finish on their home court. The Bulls may have a 2-3 record this season, but they are coming off a confidence boosting 24-point victory over Utah last Friday. Both of the Bulls wins have come at home this season, a place they have yet to be defeated.

The Cavaliers cannot continue to win games shooting as poorly as they have. They are averaging just 37.7% from the field, and scoring 85.2 points per game when playing on the road. They will struggle to match that number this week against one of the best defenses in the league. Chicago has held opponents to a mere 77 points per game when playing at home this season.

The Bulls have two days of rest coming into tonight's matchup, while the Cavaliers are playing with just a single day of rest. The Cavaliers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when playing on one day of rest. They are also 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games against Eastern Conference opponents. In head-to-head matchups between these teams the Favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

3* Bailout Blowout on New Orleans Pelicans -

Phoenix showed us just how bad they can play in the third quarter of their last game against Denver. They blew a 17 point lead against the Nuggets, and it took a fourth quarter comeback to win the game. Against a quality team like New Orleans I don't think Phoenix can afford to play so poorly and still win the game.

The Pelicans have won three of their last four games. They are averaging 96.3 points per game, the same number of points the Suns have allowed this season. Phoenix is nowhere near as good as there 4-2 record. They have lost two of their last four games, and after battling it out with Denver on Friday I don't expect a strong performance from Phoenix in this game.

In head-to-head matchups with the Suns the Pelicans have a 4-1 ATS record. The road team is also 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between them. This matchup also falls into a system to play against a team like Phoenix after a home game where both teams scored 100 points or more, and they were a bad team that won just 25% to 40% of their games last year playing another team that had a losing record. This system is 27-6 (82%) against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Atlanta Hawks -

I am calling for an Atlanta Hawks blowout in this game. Orlando may be 3-2 on the year, but they have outplayed there talent level through the first five games of the season. Reality should settle in today when facing a Hawks team that is scoring 105.2 points per game.

Orlando has been lucky to win three games this season. They are allowing 108.5 points per game, and that is a recipe for disaster against a team with the scoring potential of the Hawks. Also, both of Orlando's losses have been their two road games this season.

The Magic are 17-35 ATS against teams from the Southeast division, and they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes of game time the previous day. Last night the Magic played against Boston and now have to travel to Atlanta to face the Hawks who are coming off a day of rest.

3* Total Dominator on Jazz/Raptors OVER

There is a lot of value on the over in this matchup between the Jazz and Raptors. The total has been set very low due in large part to the lack of scoring from Utah this season. That changes today when they face a Raptors team that is giving up 95.5 points per game at home this season. In Utah's defense, they have played some surprisingly good defenses this season.

Toronto should have no problem making their contribution to the over. They are scoring 94 points per game at home this season. The potential is there for them to increase that number against Utah since the Jazz have allowed an average of 98.6 points per game.

The over has a 4-1 record in Toronto's last five home games against a team with a losing record on the road. It is also 4-1 in their last five games against teams from the Northwest division. The over is 9-3 in Utah's last 12 games against Atlantic division teams. In head-to-head meetings between the Jazz and Raptors the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

3* Late Night Bailout Blowout on Phoenix Suns

After finishing at the bottom of the Western Conference last season, the Phoenix Suns appear to have turned things around this season. Denver on the other hand narrowly avoided their worst start in franchise history. Its obvious these teams are moving in completely different directions as Phoenix sits on a 3-2 record while Denver is just 1-3.

A once stellar offense for Denver has been a major disappointment this year. In their only road game of the season they scored just 88 points against Sacramento. The team averages 97.2 points per game overall, but most of that scoring has taken place at home. The Nuggets are still bad defensively, allowing 103 points per game. They will face a Suns team that has given up just 87.5 points per game in their two home games this season.

The Nuggets are now 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games overall dating back to last season. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Pacific Division teams, and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record. The Suns on the other hand are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss, and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games.

5* Total No Brainer on Nets/Wizards UNDER

The total on this game has been set far too high. First of all, the Brooklyn Nets are the better team and they will control the pace of this game. Washington has done a lot of scoring this season, but it has come at an unsustainable level. Against a good team like Brooklyn I don't think they will be able to match there average of 102 points per game at home.

Brooklyn is not a fast paced offense. They average just 90 points per game on the road. They know they will need to control the pace of this game and turn it into a defensive battle rather than a shootout. The Nets have an extra day of rest over the Wizards and should be able to prevent their opponents from continuing to shoot 50% from the field.

The under is 7-3 in Brooklyn's last 10 games against a team with a losing record. It is also 35-15-1 in Washington's last 50 games following a straight up win. In the last five head to head meetings between these teams the under has a 4-1 record, and a 7-3 record in the last 10 meetings. Expect a strong defensive performance from the Nets, and with their offense struggling on the road this game should easily stay under the total.

3* Bailout Blowout on Denver Nuggets -

The Nuggets have historically had one of the better home court advantages in the NBA and they also have a history of beating up on the Atlanta Hawks when playing at home. Atlanta has lost six consecutive games in Denver, and are 11-28 all time. The last time Atlanta beat the Nuggets in Denver was back in December of 2006.

This is the third leg of a three game road trip for Atlanta. The Hawks have not looked good defensively this season, giving up an average of 107.7 points per game on the road. I don't think the Nuggets can continue to shoot as poorly as they have, and a game against a soft defense like Atlanta's is just what they need to get back to their winning ways at home.

The Atlanta Hawks are not a team that wins consistently. They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win, and 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. The Nuggets are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games against teams from the Southeast division. I think home court advantage plays a big roll in this game and Denver wins tonight in a shootout.

4* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies -

New Orleans shot a mere 34.8% in their only road game of the year against Orlando, scoring just 90 points in that game. Their defense was incredibly soft allowing 110 points and they have given up 98.2 points per game overall this season. We know what this Memphis defense is capable of, and even though we have not seen it yet this season, I expect them to shine against a horrible Pelicans team.

Memphis is scoring a lot of points this year. They are averaging 99.7 points per game and shooting over 45% from the field. They are a strong rebounding team and have forced a lot of turnovers from their opponents. Now that we are a full week into the system and the Grizzlies have a few games under their belts I expect the defense to tighten up quite a bit. The Pelicans are bad, and this matchup will be the perfect opportunity for that to take place.

The Pelicans are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games dating back to last season. The Grizzlies have a 10-3 ATS record in their last 13 games when playing with a day of rest between games, while New Orleans is playing on back-to-back nights. The Grizzlies are also a team that gains a lot of momentum when they win at home. They are 25-12 ATS over the last two seasons when coming off a home win.

4* Total Annihilator on Jazz/Celtics OVER

This total is not taking into account just how bad the Jazz have played this season. Utah has given up over 100 points in three of their four games. They face a Celtics team that is averaging 98 points per game at home this season. The Jazz are also playing in back-to-back road games after getting crushed by the Nets last night, so I expect to see the defense come out a little flat footed.

The Celtics poor defense will also make a big contribution to this game going over the total. In their only home game of the season the defense gave up 105 points to Milwaukee. The Jazz are averaging 90.7 points per game this season, and I don't think they will continue to shoot as poorly as they have against this soft Celtics defense.

The over is 7-3 in Utah's last 10 games when they allowed 100 points or more in their previous game. It is also 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams. In Boston's last six games against a team with a losing record the over has a perfect 6-0 record.

3* Total Dominator on Pacers/Pistons UNDER

The Pacers defense ranks among the best in the league. They have held opponents to 83.7 points per game this season, on a 37.9% shooting rate from the field. Even when playing on the road they have been dangerous, allowing 90 points per game on 40% shooting.

Surprisingly, the Detroit Piston's defense has also looked solid this season. They did give up over 100 points in their home opener, but that is to be expected in the first game of the season. They tightened things up in their last home game against Boston, holding the Celtics to a mere 77 points. A better indicator of how talented this defense is than points allowed is shooting percentage allowed and Detroit has given up just 42.8% in home games.

In the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams the under has a 5-2 record. Given the history between these teams I expect to see a hard fought defensive battle. This matchup falls into a system to play the under when one of the teams, in this case Detroit, had a losing record last season and they are facing a division opponent. This system is 72-33 in favor of the under.

3* Main Event on New York Knicks -

The talent gap between these teams is significant. New York is one point away from a 2-0 start to the season. They have played extremely well defensively, and that is what gives them the edge in this matchup against Minnesota.

The Knicks have held opponents to 82.5 points per game this season. Minnesota is not as potent on offense as they may appear, and I expect them to struggle against the Knicks today. It took overtime in the first game of the season against Orlando to put up such a big offensive number. The Knicks have done a great job of avoiding turnovers, and forcing them on defense.

The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against Western Conference opponents. They also own a 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 home games. When coming off a loss they have responded with a 7-3 ATS record. Minnesota has posted a 5-12-1 ATS record in their last 18 road games against a team with a winning record at home.

3* No Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -

Through the first two games of the season we have already learned a lot about the Memphis Grizzlies, and what we know is not good. The once dominating defense appears to have taken a major step backwards. The Grizzlies are allowing an average of 104.5 points per game this season, and things will not get any easier tonight when they take on a Mavericks team that has scored an average of 111.5 points through their first two games.

Both of these teams are playing in back-to-back game night situations, and that has to favor the home team Mavericks. Dallas is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing without a day of rest. Through the first two games of the season these teams have been relatively even in regards to rebounds and turnovers committed. However, the Mavericks get the edge in two other key areas. They shot 57.1% from the field in their home opener, while the Grizzlies shot an abysmal 41.9% in their opened on the road.

The Dallas Mavericks are 27-13 ATS when coming off 1 or more losses over the last two seasons. They are also 28-14 ATS when coming off a game in which they were listed as an underdog. They have done a great job in games the oddsmakers expect to be close, posting a 15-5 ATS record when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.

3* Total No Brainer on Bucks/Celtics UNDER

This matchup features two teams that seriously lack scoring potential. The Celtics lost their leading scorer in the offseason, and it is going to take time for these new players to come together. That means some low scoring games for the Celtics. In their season opener they put up just 87 points on a mediocre Toronto defense.

It is a similar story for the Milwaukee Bucks. I can't see this team scoring many points this season after getting rid of a great point guard for a mediocre one with the Jennings for Knight trade, and losing Dunleavy as an unrestricted free agent. This Bucks have been mediocre for years, and if anything they took a step backwards offensively with their offseason moves.

The under is 40-16 in Milwaukee's last 56 games when coming off a performance in which they earned five of less offensive rebounds. This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under when a team that won 40% to 49% of their games last season like Boston, is facing another team that had a losing record. This system is 64-29 to the under over the last five seasons.

5* Total Dominator on 76ers/Wizards OVER

We learned two things in Philadelphia's season opener. First of all their offensive scoring potential is much improved after the overhaul this team went through in the offseason. They put up 114 points in that home opener against Miami. They also showed us that there is going to be a learning curve while these players learn how to play together. The defense allowed 110 points, and the team had 18 turnovers.

It is a very similar story for the Wizards. The managed to score 102 points in their season opener, which was played on the road. With this matchup against Philadelphia being their first home game of the year, I expect the crowed to be fired up and the Wizards to put on an offensive show.

Dating back to last season the over is 7-1 in Washington's last eight games against Eastern Conference opponents. It is also 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss. It is 15-5 in home games when Washington is coming off a road loss over the last two seasons. The 76ers are also trending towards the over, posting a 51-31 record to the over against Southeast division opponents.

3* No Doubt Rout on LA Clippers -

The Clippers are loaded with talent this season. Their starting lineup is comprised of potential All-Stars, centered on Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. They were also able to lure in a great head coach with Doc Rivers, one of only four active head coaches with an NBA championship ring. This is the home opener for Los Angeles and I expect Rivers to have his team ready to play against their Western Conference rivals.

The Warriors are playing on back-to-back nights, and at this point in the season I expect conditioning to be a major issue. The Clippers have a big advantage playing with a night of rest. I think Los Angeles will come to play in this game after a disappointing season opener on the road against the Lakers on Tuesday. The Clippers are the team to beat in the Western Conference this year, and they will show critics why that is the case tonight against Golden State.

This matchup falls into a system to play on favorites like the Clippers when they are coming off an upset loss as a road favorite in the first six games of the season and they were a playoff team from last season that has lost four or more of their last five games. This system identifies teams that are undervalued by the oddsmakers, and it has resulted in a 28-7 ATS record. Expect the Clippers to make a statement tonight.

3* Bailout Blowout on Sacramento Kings -

The Kings have a potential superstar in the making with DeMarcus Cousins at Center. He is an aggressive and physical center that will prove to be a matchup nightmare for the Denver Nuggets in this game. The Nuggets lack depth at the center position and the team has a whole looks completely different than the unit that posted a 24-4 run after the All-Star break last year. It is Denvers strong finish last season that has them overvalued in this game.

The Nuggets are without Andre Iguodala, and he has been replaced with Randy Foye. The shooting guards defensive capabilities are non-existent so that is another position that the Kings should have a great matchup advantage. Sacramento made some great moves in the offseason that make them a much stronger team defensively so they should be able to keep the Nuggets scoring in check.

Last season the Nuggets defense was horrible on the road, while the Kings did a remarkable job scoring at home. Denver allowed over 104 points per game while the Kings put up over 104 points. Those two factors combined indicate a potential blowout win for the Kings. The Nuggets finished 0-6 ATS in their last six games against Western Conference opponents last season, and 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. The Kings had a 5-1 ATS rally against Western Conference opponents and the favorite is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these teams.

5* No Brainer on New Orleans Pelicans +

It is early in the season so there is very little chance that the conditioning levels are where head coaches want them to be. That spells trouble for the Pacers because they are playing on back-to-back nights. The Pelicans will be the fresh and rested team with home court advantage so getting two points is a gift from the oddsmakers.

The Pelicans made some quality moves in the offseason so they should be a much better team this year. Jrue Holiday is an All-Star player and a matchup nightmare for the Pacers. Combine that with the fact that they will have a healthy Eric Gordon and the Pacers should be on upset alert. Gordon is an undervalued talent that has played in just 51 games over the last two seasons. Gordon averaged 22.3 points per games with the Clippers in the 2010-11 seasons.

The Pacers have been given too much credit based on last year's postseason performance. They looked soft when closing out the game against Orlando last night and are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win. The Pelicans are a great team to back based on their rest profile. When they have time to rest and prepare for an opponent (three or more days) they have posted a 13-4 ATS record in their last 17 games.

4* Heavy Hitter on Chicago Bulls +

The Chicago Bulls have a legitimate chance to finish the season with one of the best records in the NBA. As we saw in the playoffs last year, Dwayne Wade is aging, and the Heat cannot rely on Chris Bosh to step up his performance when wide is getting rest minutes. The Bulls play very stingy defense, similar to the style of Indiana. We saw last year how that can cause the Heat problems on offense.

Derrick Rose averaged 20.7 points while the Bulls went 8-0 during the preseason. The Bulls have played some great games against the Heat, including a game one win at Miami in the playoffs last year. They accomplished that feat without Rose, who has played in just one of the last 12 meetings between these teams. Rose is the differentiating factor that give the Bulls the edge in this game.

In head-to-head matchups between these teams the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Bulls clearly have a defensive edge in this game, and with Derrick Rose back the offense is bound to give the Heat a run for their money. These teams don't like each other and I expect this matchup to come down to the last possession.

4* Total Annihilator on Spurs/Heat UNDER

I expect to see the Heat concentrate on a better defensive performance in game 7 tonight. With the shooting from the Spurs role players leveling off and San Antonio using everything left in the tank in game 6 that should be an easy task to accomplish. Miami still has some offensive problems of their own which makes the under a strong value play in today's matchup.

Miami has gone under the total in 5 of their last 9 games in the playoffs and it not for overtime in the last game that record would easily be 6-3. The Heat defense has been great in the playoffs allowing an average of just 90.8 points per game. The Spurs defense has also been solid holding their playoff opponents to 93.2 points per game.

The under is 7-2 in the Spurs last 9 road games against a team with a winning record and 17-5 in their last 22 road games overall. These teams have a history of staying under the total when playing in Miami. In head to head matchups the under is 12-4 in the last 16 games when the Heat are at home.

3* Main Event on Miami Heat

The Miami Heat delivered a big blow to the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night. San Antonio thought they had the game locked up before Lebron James stepped in to send the game to overtime. That kind of disappointment will linger with a team which is way I expect the Spurs to have a major let down performance tonight.

There are no more games left in this series so the Heat are playing in another game that is a must win situation. They seem to thrive in this role which is why their last two series have gone back and forth. Miami has one of the most potent offenses in the league averaging 104.6 points per game on their home court. They are shooting over 50% at home and it was obvious in game 6 that the Spurs are getting worn out.

Even when San Antonio wins the battle on the boards they are losing to the Heat. In game 2 the Spurs were +7 on the boards and lost in an 84-103 blowout. The game 6 rebounding advantage when to the Spurs at +13 which further shows how worn down this San Antonio team is after a long season. The Heat know they can't allow the Spurs to keep this game close and I expect them to pick up this win in a blowout. They are 5-1 in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The shooting from the Spurs role players has leveled off and Miami is 42-28 ATS against teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots per game this season.

3* Main Event on San Antonio Spurs +

This is too many points for the Spurs to be receiving considering how well they are playing in the post season. The Spurs average 100.8 points per game on the road and they have covered the number in 9 of their last 13 playoff games. San Antonio is shooting 47% against the Heat and Miami does not look like they have what it takes to cover such a large number.

Defensively the Spurs have held Miami to an average of 96.2 points per game. The Miami heat have allowed San Antonio an average of 99.2 points per game in the first five games of this championship series. With the role players for the Spurs making big shots it is very unlikely that the Heat can continue to play well in every other game and cover a 7 point line.

The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games while Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games coming off a performance scoring 100 points or more. The Heat are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. All signs point to a very close battle between these teams.

3* Total Annihilator on Spurs/Heat UNDER

The Miami defense has been respectable this season, especially when playing at home. They have held opponents to 94 points per game while scoring just 96.2 points per game against the Spurs. The first two games of this series played in Miami stayed well under the posted total of 190 points and 189.5 points so there is a lot of value on the under as we come back to Miami with an even higher total set on this game.

When playing on the road the Spurs have taken a defensive oriented approach rather than a shoot quickly and score approach like they use at home. This is exactly why San Antonio held Miami to just 88 points in the series opener of this game. While both of these teams have been shooting well in San Antonio I expect that to level out as we head back to Miami.

The under is 13-3 in the Spurs last 16 road games against a team winning 60% or more of their games at home and it is 17-4 in their last 21 road games overall. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 home games and 12-3 in the last 15 head to head meetings between these teams when the game is being played in Miami.

3* Main Event on San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are playing on an extra day of rest coming into tonight

5* Finals Game of the Year on Miami Heat

The Miami Heat are a team that plays better when their backs are up against the wall. We have seen it throughout the playoffs in the series against Indiana and now against San Antonio. They have not lost back to back games since the beginning of the season. The Spurs may struggle without Tony Parker if he is unable to play due to a nagging leg injury.

The Heat have now seen San Antonio

3* Main Event on San Antonio Spurs

The Miami Heat may have won game 2 in a blowout but do not expect that to slow San Antonio down today. The Spurs are a veteran team and should have no problems responding to that loss on their home court. San Antonio averages 104.4 points per game at home and I do not expect the Heat to have solid back to back defensive performances.

You have to like San Antonio's chances of picking up a win on their home court. They managed to beat Miami in game 1 of this series even though the Heat had a pretty solid overall performance. The Spurs have performed well defensively at home allowing just 94.2 points per game giving them an average scoring margin of victory at 10.1 points per game.

Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. They have not shown us that they can perform well in back to back games during the post season. They are playing in a very unfamiliar role coming into this game as an underdog. San Antonio has done a great job of responding after a poor performance going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Spurs are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NBA Championship games. Expect this veteran team to come out strong for tonight's game.

4* Vegas Insider on Miami Heat

Miami has done a great job of responding to losses this season and I fully expect them to do the same thing for game 2 of this Championship Series. Miami has not lost 2 games back to back since January so the possibility of back to back losses seems very unlikely. Miami actually outplayed the Spurs in game 1 of this series and assuming they stick to the same game plan I do not expect the anomaly of the better team losing to repeat itself.

The Heat offense at home averages 104.7 points per game and the San Antonio defense is not good enough to hold them so far below their statistical average in back to back games. The Spurs are allowing 97.2 points per game on the road this season. Miami may play small ball but they are also a better rebounding team than San Antonio. In game 1 they had a total of 54 boards compared to 47 from the Spurs.

The reality is that Miami is the better team. After losing as a favorite I expect to see this Miami team respond just like they did in the series against Chicago as well as the series against Indiana. The Heat never lost back to back games and they always followed a losing performance with a good game. The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days of rest and they are 9-2 ATS following a straight up loss. I don

3* Main Event on San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs come into this game being the well-rested team. They are a veteran team so that rest will be crucial when facing the Heat. Miami is coming off a mentally and physically draining series against the Pacers and two of the Big Three are struggling right now. Dwayne Wade is playing through a knee injury and Chris Bosh is coming off a poor shooting performance in the series against Indiana.

The Spurs offense has actually scored more points on average than the Heat. San Antonio is averaging 102.8 points per game compared to 101.9 per game from the Heat. The Pacers gave San Antonio a blue print for how to beat Miami. Pounding the ball inside will be the reason San Antonio keeps this game close and possibly pulls off the win in this game.

The Spurs have played great basketball on the road against winning teams. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a home winning percentage of 60% or more. They are 4-1 ATS in NBA Championship games and their experience should lead them to a solid opening game performance against a Heat team that has been known to start slow. Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win and I expect them to struggle with the talented bigs on this Spurs team.

3* Main Event on Miami Heat

The Indiana Pacers are in for some big trouble tonight when they face the Miami Heat. This matchup falls into a system to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Miami when they are revenging a loss where the team scored less than 85 points and they are off an upset loss of 10 points or more when playing as a road favorite. This system is 24-4 (86%) ATS.

The Heat have one of the best offenses in the league averaging 105.1 points per game. They certainly have blowout potential against Indiana if you look back at games 3 and 5 of this series. The Pacers have not been able to hold Miami

3* Total Annihilator on Heat/Pacers UNDER

Even though the Pacers lost game 5 of this series they can

3* Main Event on Miami Heat -

Miami received their first real wake-up call of the season when they lost a close battle with the Pacers on Tuesday. The Heat were into foul trouble early in that game and that is a mistake they will not repeat today. They are also playing on their home court where they are 42-6 on the season and it will be a big advantage for today

3* No Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers +3

The Pacers have shown us they can compete with the Heat and after Miami shot 54.5% in the last game between these teams I expect Indiana to have no problems making the necessary defensive adjustments. On the offensive side of the ball Indiana did nothing to exploit their size advantage like they did in the first two games of the series. This is also something I expect Indiana to get back to doing tonight.

The Pacers will have the benefit of playing in front of their home crowd again which can be a huge momentum swing, especially in a playoff game. Indiana has held teams to 90.1 points per game at home on 41.4% shooting. They have the second best defense in the league statistically, and many would argue they are actually better than Memphis due to a more difficult schedule and playing through injuries.

The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss and they are 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. They have posted a 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games at home. They should have no problems improving on that number with a much better defensive performance during tonight

5* Total Playoff Game of the Year on Heat/Pacers UNDER

Indiana made the mistake of letting the Heat control the pace of the last game and it cost them. I don

4* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies

This matchup falls into a system to play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 and they are coming off an upset loss as a favorite in a game involving two teams winning 60% to 75% of their games this season. This system is 53-20 (73%) ATS. The Grizzlies are also 15-6 ATS against teams winning over 70% of their games this season.

Memphis is playing in a must win situation to keep their playoff hopes alive. I expect the defense to step up and perform well against the Spurs tonight. The Grizzlies have the best defense in the league and have held opponents to 87.6 points per game when playing at home.

San Antonio shot over 50% in the last game against Memphis. That anomaly is unlikely to occur again playing on the Grizzlies

5* Total Dominator on Pacers/Heat UNDER

The Indiana Pacers have the second best defense in the NBA. They are playing on their home court for today

4* No Brainer on Memphis -

Memphis is playing in a must win situation today. They cannot afford to fall three games behind against the Spurs and they know it. The venue for this game has moved to the Grizzlies home court so I expect them to have a very strong performance in this game.

Memphis is 37-9 at home this season and their defense has held opponents to 87.2 points per game which leads all teams in the NBA. The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss and they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Spurs definitely do not play great on the road as 19 of their 26 losses on the season have come away from home.

Defensively San Antonio has struggled on the road allowing opponents 97.8 points per game. That spells big trouble for the Spurs today, especially when you consider the fact that Memphis is 15-5 ATS when playing against a top tier team winning 70% or more of their games this season. The Grizzlies defense should prove to be too much for the Spurs today as Memphis picks up a big home court win.

3* Main Event on Miami Heat

After the scare the Pacers gave the Heat in game 1 of this series I expect them to respond the same way they did against Chicago, with a blowout win. The Heat are 6-1 in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and they are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games when playing with a day of rest.

The Heat have a statistical advantage from almost every angle. They are scoring more points per game, which goes hand in hand with their better shooting percentages, and they average less turnovers and have a stronger bench. While Indiana may have an edge defensively, the Heat have more scoring threats than any other team they have faced this season.

The achilles heel for Indiana is their inability to score points. They rank 23rd in the league averaging just 94.7 points per game. I expect Miami to have no problems breaking down the Indiana defense now that they have a full game worth of film to analyze. Add in the fact that Miami is playing on their home court and we have a blowout in the making.

5* No Brainer on Indiana Pacers +

The oddsmakers are not giving much respect to arguably one of the best defenses in the league this season. Indiana has not allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or more from the field in over a month coming into this game. Miami did not look good in their opener against Chicago and with the Heat not having played in a week I expect them to come out a little sluggish in this matchup too.

The Pacers defense has held opponents to an average of 89.4 points per game in the playoffs on 41.6% shooting from the field. This is a defense that plays just as good on the road as they do at home holding opponents to a mere 91.6 points per game. While the Pacers may not have a high scoring offensive unit, they should certainly not have any problems staying within 8 points against a Miami defense allowing almost 95 points per game at home.

Indiana is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games when they are playing on 3 or more days of rest. The extra rest afforded to the Pacers will prove to be very beneficial to an already stout defense. Expect the Pacers to come out strong and the defense to keep this game close until the end.

3* Main Event on Memphis +

There is a reason this line is only a point off the line from game 1 of this matchup. The San Antonio Spurs shot 52.6% from the field against the best defense in the post season and that anomaly is not going to take place again. The Grizzlies typically hold opponents to 43.6% shooting and 89.8 points per game.

This matchup falls into a system to play against home teams coming off two straight wins by 10 points or more when they are playing against an opponent that scored 85 points or less in the previous game. This system is 40-17 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons.

In head to head history between these teams the games have been very close. Back in April the Grizzlies won straight up by two points. Excluding the game 1 matchup between these teams three of the last four games have been decided by 5 points or less and there is no reason tonight

3* Main Event on San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio has been dangerously good at home this season. The Spurs posted a 39-7 straight up record. The offense has averaged 104.6 points per game at home while allowing only 94.7 points. They are an extremely well rounded team and when playing at home they should have no problems pulling away from the Grizzlies.

Memphis comes into this game barely scoring more than what they allow when playing on the road. The Grizzlies averaged 93.6 points per game while holding opponents to 92 points per game. While the Grizzlies defense has been great, the Spurs present a matchup nightmare.

San Antonio is 14-4 ATS when playing on 2 days of rest. When coming off a straight up win by 10 points or more they are 4-1 ATS in the following game. In head to head matchups the Spurs have a history of dominating the Grizzlies. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games played at San Antonio and 2-6 ATS in the last 8 overall.

4* No Brainer on Indiana Pacers -

The Knicks have not responded well to a win and their inability to gain any momentum will haunt them today against the Pacers. New York is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win and they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. They are facing a Pacers team that is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games played at home and against a Pacers defense that has shut them down for most of this series.

The Pacers own a 35-11 record at home because their defense plays so well. Their defense ranks 1st in the league in shooting percentage allowed from the field as well as from beyond the three point line. They are 2nd in points allowed per game and 1st in rebounds per game on offense. Throughout the playoffs Indiana has run their defense seamlessly and all those bodies in the paint makes rebounding an easy task.

While the Knick

3* No Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -

Indiana is by far one of the worst road teams left in the playoffs. The Pacers have a 21-24 straight up record on the road. They are scoring only 91 points per game away from home which is nowhere near the level they need to keep pace with this Knicks team scoring 101.5 points per game at home.

The Knicks are playing to keep their postseason hopes alive and that should serve as plenty of motivation for today

3* Oddsmakers Error on Chicago Bulls +

It may come as a surprise to hear that Miami is 0-9 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. Things will not get much better for Miami when they face a Chicago team that still has a lot of fight left in them. The Bulls responded well to the first blowout by Miami and coming off a 65-88 loss is more than enough motivation to play well today. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit home loss.

With the exception of game 2 in this series the Bulls defense has played pretty well. The spark they need is on offense, especially after a 25.7% shooting performance in the last game of this series. The Miami defense is not that good so I don

4* Heavy Hitter on San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs are a veteran team and they have no problem responding to a loss, even in the postseason. San Antonio is 19-8 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors have certainly played better than what they deserve credit for. The have allowed an average of 103.5 points per game on the road while scoring 101.7 offensively.

The Spurs have to have a sour taste in their mouth after Golden State picked up a win on the Spurs home court so they will certainly be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight. One thing that should not be forgotten is this the fact that this San Antonio team is the same one that has won six of their last eight games and is a Championship contender every year.

The Spurs have one of the best home records in the league and while their ATS record at home is right around .500 that seems to be the norm for most NBA teams. I really like the Spurs to cover this number tonight because of their home court advantage. They average 104.5 points per game at home and playing against a soft Warriors defense should make it easy for San Antonio to pull away.

4* Total Dominator on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER

The oddsmakers are still not giving any love to the Grizzlies defense this season. This line is especially high considering Oklahoma City

3* No Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors

Golden State is coming off a 10 point home loss against the Spurs and that will serve as motivation for today

4* Total Annihilator on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER

The oddsmakers continue to underestimate the talent of this Memphis defense. The Grizzlies have held opponents to 87.2 points per game at home this season. Offensively they do not do much to be concerned about going over the total as they are scoring a mere 93.9 points per game.

The Thunder are 17-3 to the UNDER when coming off 2 consecutive games as a home favorite this season. The Grizzlies are also trending towards the under at 14-5 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The Grizzlies defense is dangerous enough when they are playing almost every day, but given some rest and they should be performing at their best against the Thunder.

When the series is tied both teams feel like they are playing in a must win situation. In these scenarios teams will often make defensive adjustments rather than finding additional ways to score. This is why you should always play the under when the total is 180 to 189.5 points when both teams have a winning record on the season and they are playing in a playoffs series that is tied. This system is 34-16 (68%) over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Golden State/Spurs UNDER

With the series tied at 1-1 I expect both of these teams to step up their play defensively. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points and the home team is well rested, playing 4 games or less in the last 10 days, and they are winning 51% to 60% of their games on the season, and playing against a team with a winning record. This system is 35-10 (78%) to the UNDER for the last five seasons.

The Spurs are holding opponents to 96.5 points per game this year while Golden State is holding opponents to 97.7 points per game at home. Four of the last six games between these teams have gone under the total. In game 2 of this series the Warriors held San Antonio to 39.3% shooting from the field and in game 1 the Spurs were held to 43.8% shooting. If not for a double overtime in the first game of this series this total would be set several points lower than it is today.

The Spurs are 18-7 to the under after playing two consecutive home games this season while Golden State is 13-4 to the under when playing as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the past two seasons. The fact that this series is tied means that both teams feel like they are playing in a must win situation. Nobody wants to be down in the series with the championship dreams on the line. Golden State is playing well defensively right now and the Spurs have to be making defensive adjustments to keep the Warriors from getting points on the board. All signs point to a defensive battle tonight with this game staying under the total.

5* LATE INFO INSIDER on Spurs +2.5

There is no way San Antonio should be an underdog coming into this game. You should always play on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 like San Antonio when they are coming off an upset loss as a home favorite, and they are a well-rested team playing 3 or less games in the last 10 days. This system is 24-6 (80%) ATS.

The Spurs have no problem winning games on the road. They posted a 25-18 straight up record and average 101.9 points per game away from home. Defensively San Antonio is holding opponents to 96.5 points per game and it is that defense that will be the difference maker in today

4* Total Dominator on Heat/Bulls UNDER

The total on this game is set far too high considering how well both of these defenses are playing right now. Miami has gone under the total in four of the last five playoffs games. They have done so while shooting a spectacular 48% from the field. The Bulls are also shooting well, but they are not scoring a lot of points. This is because the style of play for both of these teams requires taking time off the clock to setup each possession.

It is not just game one of this series that went under the total. In head to head matchups the under is 4-1 in the last 5 games played at Miami. The Heat are 6-0 to the under in their last 6 games against NBA central teams. The Bulls are also trending towards the under at 5-2 in the last 7 against teams with a winning record.

Chicago has held opponents to 93.3 points per game on average this season. The Heat had also had impressive defensive numbers holding opponents to 94.5 points per game. Considering the fact that both of these teams run a slowdown offense they are the perfect matchup scenario to stay under the total.

4* Vegas Insider on New York Knicks -

Chalk up the first game of this series as an anomaly because the Knicks should take this one big tonight. This matchup falls into a system to play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Indiana after having covered three of their last four games against the spread, when they are playing in a game involving two teams winning 60-75% on the season. This system is 49-26 (65%) over the last five seasons.

This matchup falls into another system to play on favorites like New York when they are a hot team that has won 20 or more of their last 25 games and they are winning 60-75% or more of their games this season. This system is 63-39 (62%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Knicks offense shot 43.2% from the field in the first game of this series and they allowed the Pacers to shoot 48.7%. Both of those numbers are well of season averages and should not take place again tonight.

The Pacers managed to outscore their season average on the road by double digits in game one of this series. Let

5* No Brainer on San Antonio Spurs -

The Spurs may not have the flash and pizzazz that that NBA fans want to see, but the bottom line is they know how to win ball games. The Spurs have a 37-6 record at home and they average 104.2 points per game, enough to keep up with any team left in the postseason. The Spurs are facing one of the most overrated teams still in the playoffs which means this game is going to be a blowout.

Golden State may average 101.1 points per game on the road, but their defense allows 103.2 points per game. They have one of the worst road records for any playoff team at 20-24 straight up. The San Antonio defense has held opponents to 93.9 points per game and their average margin of victory at home is over 10 points.

San Antonio is 32-15 ATS over the past two seasons when playing against a team winning 51% to 60% of their games. In the second half of the season that number improves to 21-9 ATS. Golden State on the other hand is 15-28 ATS in the second half of the season against teams making 36% or more of their 3 point attempts over the last 3 seasons. These trends combined for a record of 81-39 (68%) ATS.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Miami Heat -

The Chicago Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. They pulled off a surprise upset over Brooklyn just two days ago and now they will face a well-rested Miami Heat team. The Heat locked up their opening series back on April 28th and that extra rest will make a big difference in today