3* NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Warriors +6.5
Motivated by last night's second-half collapse, I expect the Warriors to give the Bulls all they can handle tonight. Chicago used a lot of energy in coming back from 11 down with under 4 minutes remaining to defeat the Lakers 88-87 last night. That big win sets the Bulls up for a letdown here.

The Bulls have had trouble at Golden State, where they have lost 2 straight and 10 of their last 14. The Bulls lost by 17 points at Golden State in 2010 and by 11 points there last season. The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Bulls are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings at Golden State.

The Warriors are 36-14-3 ATS in their last 52 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Take the Warriors.

3* NBA SMASH on T-Wolves +5.5
Playing in Minnesota has been no picnic for Oklahoma City, and it gets no easier for the Thunder tonight.

3 of the last 4 meetings between these two in Minnesota have been decided by 2 or fewer points. The Wolves have been able to take the Thunder down to the wire at home in recent years despite inferior guard play. Guard play should no longer be an issue for the T-Wolves with Ricky Rubio set to make his much-anticipated debut and J.J. Barea coming over from NBA champion Dallas.

Playing on the road without a day of rest is never an easy task. Plus, the Thunder are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Take the T-Wolves.

3* NBA Christmas Gift on Warriors +6
Even if Stephen Curry isn't able to go, I still think the Warriors are showing excellent value catching this many points at home.

Chris Paul will make the Clippers a better team by season's end, but it's going to take time for him to build chemistry with his new set of teammates. The Warriors will be a more cohesive unit Sunday night, and that gives them an excellent opportunity to pull off the upset.

The Clippers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. The Warriors are 36-13-3 ATS in their last 52 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Warriors have either won or lost by 4 points or less in 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series. The Clippers are 2-5 ATS in those 7 meetings and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Golden State. Take the points.

5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* (Gm 6, ABC) on Heat -4.5
I can't see Dallas winning three in a row in this series. The Heat are just too good. Plus, they'll have the home crowd behind them and they'll be playing with a sense of desperation in this do-or-die Game 6. Teams tend to play their best when desperate.

Miami played well enough to win Game 5 and led by 4 in the fourth down the stretch. The Heat likely would have held on to win that game had Dallas not continued its flukish 3-point shooting performance. The Mavs average 8 3-point makes on 37% shooting for the season but shot a ridiculous 13 of 19 (68.4%) from deep in Game 5. With Miami stepping up the defensive intensity and with a change of venue for Dallas, I can't see the three balls falling the same way here. That gives Miami the edge.

The Heat are 9-1 at home in these playoffs. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Expect Miami to take care of business tonight to extend the series. Lay the points.

5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* (Gm 5, ABC) on Heat +1.5
Despite outplaying Dallas for the majority of each game, the series is tied 2-2. After feeling like they gave away Game 4, you can bet Miami will show up tonight.

Miami hasn't dropped consecutive games since early March, winning after all seven of their most recent losses by an average of 9.7 points. Miami has been exceptional in bounce back spots and I have no doubts we will see a much better performance from LeBron James tonight.

James scored only eight points on 11 shots in Game 4. It was the first time in 90 career playoff games that he failed to reach double-digits in points. Despite scoring nearly 19 points below his average, the Heat were right in the game until the end. That shows you how good this team really is. The two-time MVP will bounce back tonight and I expect him to be the difference.

The Mavericks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games while the Heat are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Heat are also 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 games in Dallas. Take Miami.

5* NBA Finals Game of the Year (ABC) on Mavericks pk
The Mavs are 7-2 at home in these playoffs and haven't lost back-to-back home games, provided there weren't any road games in between, since early January when Dirk Nowitzki was out with injury.

Miami, meanwhile, has not won back-to-back road games, provided there were no home games in between, in these playoffs. The Heat split the first pair of back-to-back road games in Philadelphia, Boston and Chicago and I fully expect this trend to continue.

This is a must-win game for the Mavs and they won't be lacking any confidence at home knowing they only lost by 2 points in Game 2 despite a lackluster performance.

The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss, Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.

In addition, plays on home teams when the line is +3 to -3, provided they are off an upset loss and both they and their opponent carry winning percentages between 60% and 75%, are 51-19 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 4.6 points.

I'm confident Dallas will be able to dig down deep just like they did in Game 2 and the result should be even more convincing on its home floor. I like the Mavs at -3 but really love them to win this game, so we'll take them on the money line tonight.

5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* (Gm 3, ABC) on Heat +2.5
Completely disgusted by the way they collapsed down the stretch in Game 2, expect the Heat to come storming back tonight.

Consider that Miami hasn't dropped consecutive games since early March, winning after all six of their most recent losses by an average of 11.7 points. In other words, this is a team that responds.

The Heat have been very good on the road down the stretch, going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games as a result. It is also worth noting that the road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings in this matchup and the Heat are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Dallas.

With the exception of the last 7 minutes of Game 2, Miami's defense has stifled the Mavs. Expect the Heat to really bring the "D" tonight as they take Game 3 outright.

5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* on Mavericks +5
Dallas still hasn't gotten over its loss to Miami in the NBA Finals 5 years ago. Its Game 1 defeat was a reminder of that pain and those haunting memories will serve as the fuel for a Game 2 victory.

Right away, I like the fact that Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a loss. I also like that the road team is 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 meetings in Miami.

In addition, Dallas is 13-3 ATS in all playoff games this season, 20-7 ATS as a road underdog this season and 17-5 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.

I went against the Mavs in Game 1 because I didn't think they'd be ready for Miami's defensive intensity, but now they've seen it. Look for Dallas to really push the ball tonight to get easy looks in transition and to take advantage of their depth while keeping Miami from digging in with its half-court defense. Take the Mavs and the points.

3* NBA Finals SMASH (ABC) on Heat -4.5
Home teams are 15-5 SU (12-8 ATS) in the last 20 Game 1s of the NBA Finals and I expect this trend to continue tonight.

Miami has been perfect at home in these playoffs, going 8-0 with wins of 8, 21, 6, 9, 11, 10, 11 and 8.

Dallas won both regular season meetings, but Miami has proven in these playoffs that we can throw regular season results out the window. Boston won 3 of 4 regular season meetings against Miami but the Heat won 4 of 5 against the Celtics in the East semis to take the series. Chicago won all 3 regular season meetings against Miami but the Heat won 4 of 5 against the Bulls in the East Finals.

The Mavs have not seen this good of a defensive team in these playoffs. Miami, meanwhile, should find easier scoring opportunities as Dallas is not as good defensively as Boston or Chicago. Lay the points with Miami in Game 1.

3* NBA Playoffs SMASH (TNT, Game 5) on Bulls -3
The Bulls are 42-7 in all home games this season, including 3-1 in home matchups with the Heat. Expect Chicago to rise to the occasion on its home floor to stave off elimination tonight.

History is on our side when you consider that plays on home favorites playing with triple revenge (3 straight losses to an opponent) in a game involving two good teams (win percentages of 60% to 75%) are 83-44 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 7.1 points. It is also worth noting that this system is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season.

In addition, Chicago is 16-4 ATS off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last 3 seasons. The Bulls are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600, 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less and 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Heat, on the other hand, are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

Lastly, the home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this matchup. Take the Bulls at home tonight.

5* NBA Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Year on Mavericks -6.5
After blowing a 15-point lead with under 5 minutes remaining in Game 4 that would have tied the series, it will be extremely difficult for the Thunder to get back up, especially on the road. Expect the focused, experienced Mavs to close out the series in impressive fashion tonight.

Last series, the Mavs came from behind late to win Game 3 to put the Lakers on the brink of elimination. They wasted no time ending that series, completely crushing LA 122-86 in Game 4.

Dallas is 13-1 ATS in all playoff games this season and 8-1 ATS when leading in a playoff series this season. The Mavericks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It will be too much Dirk Nowitzki for the Thunder to handle yet again tonight. Lay the points.

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* (TNT) on Bulls +5
Chicago was right in Games 2 and 3 until the final minutes despite allowing Miami to shoot 47.1% and 50.7% respectively from the field. That kind of shooting has been unheard of against Chicago. The Bulls led the NBA in field goal percentage defense, only allowing opponents to shoot 43.0%. After back-to-back disappointing defensive efforts, expect the Bulls to really tighten the screws on their way to a Game 4 victory.

Chicago has now lost back-to-back games, something that has happened just 4 other times this season. In each of those 4 prior instances, the Bulls responded to snap their losing streak with wins of 5.3 points on average.

Chicago is 19-9 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 96.9 to 95.5. The Bulls are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Bulls and the points.

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Thunder -3.5
Clawing their way back from a 23-point deficit to make a game of it late in Game 3 does a lot for the confidence of the Thunder tonight. I expect this resilient team, which hasn't lost 2 in a row in nearly 2 months, to bounce back strong here.

History is certainly on OKC's side when you consider that plays on any team that is explosive offensively (scoring 103+ points/game on the season) after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 114-61 (65.1%) ATS since 1996. If the "play on" team is favored, this system tightens up to an impressive 51-23 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons with an average winning margin of 9.3 points.

Thunder are 44-21-1 ATS in their last 66 games following a SU loss, 24-14 ATS when out to avenge a loss to an opponent this season, 19-9 ATS off an upset loss the last 2 seasons and 18-7 ATS off a home loss over the last 2 seasons.

Durant did not play well in Game 3 and shot 0-of-8 from 3-point range. Rarely does he string together back-to-back poor performances. Look for the Thunder to bounce back in Game 4 behind a big night from Durant.

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Bulls +5
The No. 1 seed in the East, which is 4-1 against Miami this season, is showing excellent value in the underdog role. The Bulls fell in Game 2 but haven't lost back-to-back games since Feb. 5 and 7.

The Bulls are an impressive 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog, 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games as a road underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bulls are also 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a SU loss and 29-10 ATS in their last 39 games following an ATS loss.

In addition, Chicago is a strong 13-3 ATS when coming off an upset loss this season. It is winning by an average score of 100.1 to 89.4 in this situation.

I went large on Miami in Game 2, and it paid off, but the Bulls showed me something. For as poorly as they played, they were right in the game until LeBron James took over late. We can expect the Bulls to play much better in this bounce back spot, which means they should have an excellent chance to pull off the upset. Take the points.

4* Game 3 *Power Play* (ESPN) on Thunder -2.5
I don't read anything negative into the benching of Russell Westbrook in Game 2 because it worked. That move gives more confidence to the OKC bench and it also charges Westbrook to make better decisions late in the game. Westbrook is a competitor and I fully expect him to show why he should never come off the floor tonight.

Also, the Thunder have figured out the best way to play Dirk Nowitzki. They did a better job of not fouling him in Game 2 and forced him to be a passer a lot more often.

Dallas has not performed all that well on the road in these playoffs. It lost Games 3 and 4 at Portland in the first round and it was extremely fortunate to win Game 1 in LA in the semis.

The Mavericks are 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings in this series. Also, the Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Thunder are 6-1 at home in these playoffs. Lay the number.

5* Game 3 "Total" Dominator (ESPN) on Mavericks/Thunder UNDER 201
Neither team played particularly well on the defensive end in Games 1 and 2, but I expect that to change tonight. With each team looking to take control of the series, we should see more intensity and more heart on the defensive end this evening.

Consider that plays Under when the total is 200 to 209.5 on all teams looking to avenge a home loss to an opponent, good team winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 70-32 the last 5 seasons.

In addition, the Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks' last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 5-1 in the Thunder's last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Under is also 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams in Oklahoma City. Take the Under.

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Thunder +5.5
Dallas could not have played better in Game 1 and it only won by 9 points. I'm confident the Thunder will make the proper adjustments to keep Game 2 even tighter.

OKC opted not to double-team Dirk Nowitzki in Game 1. That strategy may have turned out okay, but OKC fouled him way too much and he made them pay at the free throw line. Expect more double-teams on Dirk and less fouls on him in this one. These defensive adjustments will give the Thunder an excellent opportunity to take Game 2.

Going to the numbers, we find that this is an ideal spot to back the Thunder. Consider that OKC is 7-0 ATS this in road games when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent. The Thunder are winning these contests by an average score of 105.3 to 100.0.

The Thunder haven't lost back-to-back games in nearly 2 months, and I don't expect this trend to come to an end tonight. Take the points.

5* 2011 NBA Game of the Year (TNT) on Heat +2.5
Motivated by an embarrassing 21-point defeat in Game 1, expect the Heat to even the series tonight.

Consider that plays on any team off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, a good team (60% to 75% winning percentage) playing a team with a winning record, are 46-23 (67%) ATS the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that Miami is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games following a road blowout loss of 20 points or more.

In addition, plays against favorites that are leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75% winning percentage) playing a team with a winning record, are 51-23 (69%) ATS since 1996.

LeBron James managed just 15 points in Game 1. Expect a much more aggressive game from him on the offensive end and for Miami to reap the reward. Heat win this one outright.

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Thunder +6
Expect Dallas to show some rust this evening having had 8 full days off. Don't be surprised if that rust costs them a Game 1 victory against a youthful Thunder squad that is playing a lot better than the Lakers did last round.

The Thunder are showing terrific value catching this many points considering they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder are also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.

The Thunder also have the edge in terms of head-to-head action. Oklahoma City is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Dallas.

Dallas easily won the battle of benches against the Lakers but won't have it as easy against an OKC club that brings in Harden, Collison, Mohammed and Maynor. Plus, starters Durant and Westbrook pose major matchup problems for the Dallas defense.

Having just wrapped up their series Sunday, expect the Thunder to be in a better rhythm this evening. Take the points.

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Thunder -6.5
After blowing a double-digit lead in Game 6, expect the Thunder to bounce back strong at home in Game 7 to take the series. I especially expect a big game from Kevin Durant after one of his worst performances of the season.

Right away, you have to like the fact that home teams are 21-7 in Game 7s over the past decade. Also, OKC has been incredibly resilient. It is 42-22 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. It is also worth noting that the Thunder are 46-31 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons and 42-24 ATS in their last 66 games when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent.

The Grizzlies are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against the Grizzlies. Also, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound the Thunder.

5* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Grizzlies -1.5
Off back-to-back defeats, including a brutally embarrassing loss at Oklahoma City Wednesday, and staring elimination square in the face, expect the Grizzlies to rise to the occasion this evening.

The Grizzlies are an impressive 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss and an unbeaten 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after being held to less than 75 points in their previous game. In addition, Memphis is 10-0 ATS after having lost 3 of its last 4 games this season. It is winning by an average of 7.2 points in this situation.

That's not all. Memphis is 13-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season, 14-5 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent - this season and 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less.

These trends point to one thing - Memphis is incredibly resilient. Expect the Grizzlies to extend this series with a big home win tonight. Lay the points.

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Hawks +4
Right away, you have to like the fact that plays against favorites that are leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 51-22 ATS since 1996 and 17-5 ATS the last 5 seasons.

Atlanta is 5-2 SU and ATS in its last 7 home games against the Bulls. It is also 4-1 SU and ATS at home in these playoffs.

The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss while the Bulls are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 of fewer points and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win.

The Hawks were right there in the 4th quarter in Game 5 despite subpar games from Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford. I expect much better from Atlanta's two best pure scorers tonight. Look for the Hawks to take the Bulls right down to the wire with an excellent opportunity to pull this one out to force a Game 7. Take the points.

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* (TNT) on Celtics +7.5
The Celtics will not go down without a fight. It's just not in their personality. Game 4 went right down to the wire and I fully expect this one to as well.

I don't believe odds makers are showing the defending East champs the respect they deserve with this line. Under coach Rivers, Boston is a tremendous 40-20 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Celtics are only losing these contests by an average of 5.2 points. Also under Rivers, Boston is an outstanding 50-31 ATS in road games when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent. It is only losing these games by an average of 2.8 points.

Over the last 3 seasons, Boston is 25-12 ATS in road games when out to avenge a loss to an opponent. It is actually winning these games by an average of 3.2 points.

Boston had an excellent opportunity to win Game 4 without its big 4 playing up to its potential. You can also say that Miami needed overtime to win that game despite its big 3 playing as well as it can possibly play. Boston's stars will play better tonight while it will be a tough encore for LeBron James and company.

We'll take the points as Boston shows the heart that has made it a champion.

5* NBA Playoff "Total" Dominator on Hawks/Bulls Under 181
After giving up 100 points on nearly 50% shooting in Game 4, expect the best defensive team in the league to tighten the screws in Game 5. The total score should easily find its way Under the number as a result.

After giving up 103 points in Game 1, the Bulls dug in and only allowed Atlanta to score 73 points on 33.8% shooting in Game 2. We saw just 159 total points scored in that contest and I'm expecting another low-scoring one here.

Consider that Chicago is a perfect 7-0 Under this season when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent of 10 points or more.

In addition, the Under is 5-0 in the Hawks' last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points and 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Under.

4* NBA Playoff Bailout on Thunder +2.5
Motivated by a terrible collapse in Game 3, expect the Thunder to come storming back to even this series.

"We're good on bounce-back games, and hopefully tomorrow is another case of that," Kevin Durant said. "Going through adversity is part of the playoffs, and we just have to push through it."

Durant probably doesn't even know exactly how good his team has been at bouncing back. Consider that the Thunder are a perfect 11-0 ATS in road games when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. We'll back the Thunder in this revenge spot tonight.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Heat pk
A heroic performance by Rajon Rondo helped Boston take Game 3, but that performance will be a tough encore.

The Celtics, which are extremely banged up, had 3 days to rest up and get treatment before Game 3. Tackling Game 4 with just a day of rest will be a much tougher task. Rondo is the engine of the Boston Celtics and unfortunately for them won't be close to full strength if he is able to go.

The Celtics have been a terrible investment following a win. In fact, they are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 games following a victory and 17-44-1 ATS in their last 62 games following a win of more than 10 points. Boston is just 5-13 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season.

In addition, plays on road teams - good team outscoring their opponents by 3-plus points/game - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 88-49 ATS the last 5 seasons.

The youthful Rondo really had to carry the veteran Celtics in Game 2, which was played on 1 days' rest like this one. Boston will need him to carry them in Game 4 but his injury won't allow it. Expect Miami's younger Big 3 to have big games tonight. Take Miami.

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Bulls -3.5
Dating back to the regular season, the Bulls have completely dominated the Hawks in 4 of the last 5 matchups, posting wins of 18, 33, 13 and 17 points. Expect Chicago's dominance to continue here.

The Bulls improved to 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games with Friday's blowout win and the Hawks fell to 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600. Atlanta also fell to 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 Conference Semifinals games.

It is also worth noting that plays against home teams out to avenge 2 straight losses in which they were held to less than 85 points are 81-44 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, Atlanta is 0-8 ATS in home games when looking to avenge a home loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. It is losing these contests by an average of 6.5 points. Bet the Bulls.

3* NBA SMASH on Lakers +2.5
This series has been much closer than the 3-0 score leads you to believe. In fact, the Lakers could easily be up 2-1 in this series.

98 NBA teams have fallen into a 0-3 hole, and all were eventually eliminated, but 39 of those teams won Game 4, which is what I expect the Lakers to do Sunday afternoon.

The two-time defending champs won't go down without a fight and Dallas hasn't exactly shown a killer instinct in the past. Dallas blew a 2-0 lead in the 2006 NBA finals, and came as close as anyone to blowing a 3-0 lead, needing seven games to get past Portland in 2003. Dallas even let Portland claw its way back from a 0-2 hole in the first round.

Knowing the daunting history of teams down 0-3, the Lakers have nothing to lose here. I expect them to play a much looser game, especially down the stretch. Take the Lakers.

5* 2011 NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 200.5
After back-to-back high-scoring games in this series, expect both teams to make the proper adjustments at the defensive end to ensure a lower scoring affair.

It bodes extremely well for us that plays Under on home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season, are 42-14 the last 5 seasons.

Despite a slower pace in Game 2, we saw the total score go over the number because of Oklahoma City's hot shooting. The Thunder were 8 of 14 from 3-point range. This is significant because OKC is 10-1 Under in road games after a game where it made 50% of it 3 point shots or better over the last 2 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 184.1 total points scored in this situation.

The Under is 7-3-1 in the Thunder's last 11 road games and 4-1-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Under is also 9-3 in the Grizzlies' last 12 games as a favorite.

This game will be a lot more intense than the 2 we saw in OKC as each team tries to take control of the series. That intensity will especially show up on the defensive end. Take the Under.

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Lakers +2.5
Three teams have come back to win a 7-game series after losing the first two at home, but no team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit. Knowing the daunting history, I expect the two-time defending champs to leave it all on the floor tonight.

Dallas isn't out of the woods yet. The last time the Lakers lost the first two games of a playoff series in the 2008 Finals, they rebounded to win Game 3. Also, the Mavericks famously blew a 2-0 lead to the Miami Heat in the 2006 NBA Finals.

The Lakers will be without Ron Artest, who was suspended for his hard foul on J.J. Barea in Game 2, but they are better off giving big minutes to Lamar Odom because of the matchup problems he poses on the offensive end.

It is worth noting that plays on road teams facing a point spread of +3 to -3 that are out to avenge a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more, provided they check in off an upset loss, are 38-15 (71.7%) against the number the last five seasons.

In addition, the Lakers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. Also, under coach Jackson, LA is 27-14 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) in the 2nd half of the season.

Expect Kobe Bryant to will his team to victory tonight.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Hawks/Bulls UNDER 180
Chicago ranked No. 1 in the NBA in field goal percentage defense and 3-point field goal percentage defense during the regular season. It also ranked No. 2 in points allowed. After allowing Atlanta to score 103 points on 51.3% shooting in Game 1 (53.8% from 3-point range), expect the Bulls to really tighten the screws on the defensive end tonight.

Prior to Game 1, Atlanta had played to the Under in 5 straight games, 8 of its last 9 and 13 of its last 16. Not more than 177 total points were scored in those 5 consecutive Unders and I expect this trend to continue here.

It is also worth noting that the Bulls have played to the Under in 8 of their last 12.

Getting more in depth, we find that plays Under on all teams (Chicago in this case) when the total is between 170 and 179.5 points (where this one is at most books) - hot team having won 6 or 7 of its last 8 games, good team winning 60-75% or more of its games on the season, are 44-19 the last 5 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 171.7 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Bulls -8.5
Down 0-1 at home, we saw the sense of urgency Oklahoma City played with last night. I expect Chicago to play with a similar level of desperation on its way to a win and cover in Game 2.

The Bulls have been a resilient bunch all season. They are 27-10 ATS in their last 37 games following an ATS loss and 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a SU defeat. Chicago is also 11-3 ATS following an upset loss this season, responding to win by 10.4 points on average in these spots.

Atlanta is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 playoff road games, losing these contests by an average of 12.4 points. It is also 3-14 ATS in its last 17 second round playoff games, losing these by an average of 13.6 points.

Prior to a Game 1, Chicago had defeated Atlanta by 18 and 31 points in consecutive games. Chicago's defense was suffocating in those contests and I expect another superb defensive effort to get the job done tonight.

4* NBA Playoffs Top Side on Thunder -6.5
It's already must-win time for the Thunder after dropping Game 1 at home and I expect them to rise to the occasion.

Gasol and Randolph were impressive in Game 1 but the Thunder did a better job of defending them than the numbers might lead you to believe. Gasol went 4 for 4 on jumpers from at least 14 feet and Randolph hit eight jumpers from at least 10 feet out, including a 3-pointer. OKC wants both players shooting jump shots, not layups. Don't expect the jumpers to fall as easily as OKC ups the intensity this evening.

Also, OKC committed 18 turnovers in Game 1 so you can bet they'll do a much better job of taking care of the rock tonight.

The Thunder are a resilient team. Consider that they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of 10 points or more at home. I fully expect them to respond with a win and cover tonight.

5* NBA Playoff Total of the Week on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 197.5

Zach Randolph was 12 of 22 in Game 1 and 8 of his makes were from at least 10 feet away from the basket. Marc Gasol was 9 of 11 from the field and was 4 of 4 on jumpers from at least 14 feet. I just don't see either player shooting as well tonight, especially with OKC clamping down on the defensive end.

The Grizzlies also got 23 points off of 18 Thunder turnovers in Game 1. And they scored 22 second-chance points off 17 offensive boards. Taking care of the basketball and doing a better job of blocking out will easily shave points off the total score this evening.

Since coach Brooks has been at the controls, OKC is 19-8 Under in home games when out to avenge a double-digit defeat to an opponent. We have seen just 195.2 total points scored on average in this situation. In other words, Brooks has done a great job of making defensive adjustments.

With better effort and a few minor adjustments, this one should finish well under the number tonight.

3* NBA Playoff "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Heat UNDER 182.5
3 of the season's 5 meetings between these teams have come in under this number and I expect another low-scoring affair tonight.

Boston allowed Miami to shoot over 47% from the field in Game 1 and knows it must tighten the screws in order to get Game 2. Plus, Boston and Miami combined to make 21 3-point shots in Game 1 and we only saw a total of 189 points scored. With the pace still slow and both defenses defending the 3-point line better, we should see this one come in under the number.

The Under is 14-2 in the Celtics' last 16 games playing on 1 day of rest, 11-4-1 in their last 16 road games and 7-1-1 in the Heat's last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Under.

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Bulls -8.5
These teams met three times in a three-week span in March and Chicago should have won all three meetings. The Bulls opened up a 14-0 lead on the Hawks in the season

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Thunder -6.5
This is a very tough spot for the Grizzlies as they are being asked to start a new series on the road on 1 days' rest and preparation time following the biggest moment in franchise history. In other words, get ready for a letdown.

Oklahoma City will not be taking the Grizzlies lightly either after losing 3 of 4 to them in the season series. But we shouldn't read too much into the regular season meetings as Kendrick Perkins didn't play in any of those games.

He has the strength and experience to defend both Gasol and Randolph. Expect him to start on Gasol, which allows Serge Ibaka, the NBA

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Spurs +3
San Antonio enters Game 6 with a ton of momentum after Wednesday's overtime victory.

5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Mavericks +4.5
Portland is lucky to still be playing. Dallas had the Blazers down 67-44 in the third quarter in Game 4 and let them off the hook. With a chance to close out the series, you can bet Dallas won't let that happen again. "We know what we gotta do. We're a veteran team. If we don't have to play a Game 7, then we don't want to play a Game 7," forward Shawn Marion said.

The Mavericks are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games while the Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6. Plus, Dallas is the best road team in the NBA this season and has been deadly in the road underdog role. In fact, it is 15-6 ATS as a road underdog this season and 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. It is winning these games by an average score of 97.5 to 95.9. The Trail Blazers, meanwhile, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 13-32 ATS in their last 45 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.

Dallas has also thrived following a double-digit win. Consider that the Mavs are 16-6 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season, winning in this situation by an average score of 99.2 to 93.0.

Dallas is the more talented and deeper team, and it will be driven tonight by the haunting memories of recent first round exits. Take the Mavs.

4* Game 6 *BEST BET* on Hawks +2
Motivated by an embarrassing loss in Game 5 and with an opportunity to win the series at home tonight, expect the Atlanta Hawks to continue their dominance over the Magic.

The Hawks have won 6 of their last 8 against the Magic, including all 4 home meetings during this span. The Magic are just 1-8 ATS in the last 9 meetings overall and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta. The Magic are also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Hawks, meanwhile, are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

The Hawks' embarrassing Game 5 defeat should remind them of how bad it felt when the Magic swept them in convincing fashion in last year's playoffs. That reminder will be the driving force behind a win tonight. Take the Hawks.

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Spurs -6.5
Off back-to-back losses to Memphis, including an embarrassing defeat in Game 4, expect the #1 seed in the West to bounce back strong at home to avoid elimination tonight.

The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are also an impressive 33-12 ATS in their last 45 home games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. They are winning these games by an average score of 98.1 to 89.1.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points playing with double revenge (2 straight losses to an opponent), if that opponent is coming off an upset win over a division rival, are 40-16 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 11.7 points.

In addition, plays on favorites, good team outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 114-67 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 9.0 points. Take the Spurs.

4* NBA Playoff "Total" Dominator on Pacers/Bulls OVER 186
Following 3 straight defensive battles which have catered to the Under, expect the offenses to take center stage to push this one Over the total.

The Over is actually 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in Chicago. In fact, we have seen an average of 197.5 total points scored in the 8 games played between these teams in Chicago the last 3 seasons.

Going further inside the numbers, we find that plays Over on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (Chicago) - well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, and a top-level team with a winning percentage of 75% or better, playing a team with a losing record - are 51-21 since 1996. This system is 12-4 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 2-0 this season. Teams fitting into this situation have faced an average total of 185.7 but have combined with their opponents to score a total of 192.2 points on average. Take the Over.

3* NBA Playoff "Total" SMASH on Hawks/Magic OVER 177.5
We saw 173 total points scored in Game 4 despite Orlando shooting 39.2% from the field. This figure included a 2 of 23 (8.7%) performance from the 3-point line. It is also worth noting that Atlanta only made 60% of its free throw attempts in Game 4 (12 of 20). Expect a few more 3's to fall for Orlando at home and a few more free throws to go down for Atlanta to push this one Over the number.

Going to the numbers we find that plays Over on all teams (Atlanta) when the total is 179.5 or less in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG allowed) after 42+ games, and after allowing 85 points or less, are 35-8 (81.4%) since 1996. We have seen an average posted total of 177 in these games and teams have combined to score an average of 187.2 total points. Bet the Over.

4* NBA Playoff "Total" Dominator on Thunder/Nuggets OVER 204.5
Down 0-3, the Nuggets have nothing to lose and that makes them a potentially dangerous team tonight. Playing at home and looking to save a little face, I expect a great effort from Denver. I also expect the Nuggets to play a little looser, which bodes well for the Over.

Both teams shot under 38% from the field in Game 3 and the Nuggets were just 30 of 45 from the free throw line. Rest assured, both teams will shoot better tonight.

On the season, Denver is 15-4 Over in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots per game. We have seen an average of 224.4 total points scored in these contests.

It also can't be overlooked that Denver is 10-1 to the Over under coach Karl after 2 straight games in which its opponent grabbed 60 or more rebounds. We are seeing an average of 216.0 points scored in these contests. There's something about getting dominated on the boards that makes teams play harder and better.

It is also significant that Denver has been made the favorite, considering the Over is 5-1 in its last 6 playoff games as a favorite. Pound the Over.

3* NBA Playoff Over/Under Winner on Spurs/Grizzlies OVER 188
Back-to-back Unders in this series have dropped the number down and now the Over is showing solid value.

The Spurs will look to push the ball more tonight and they will also look to take the ball to the basket. Memphis has been guarding the 3-point line, as you might expect when matched up against the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA, and the Spurs need to adjust. More drives means more free throws and free throws mean points with the clocked stopped, which is very conducive to the Over.

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Magic pk
Expect the Magic to bounce back strong in Game 4 to even the series.

The Magic's Richardson and the Hawks' Pachulia will both miss Sunday's game with suspensions stemming from an altercation late in Game 3. I believe the Hawks will actually miss Pachulia more. The 6-11, 275-pound center has done the best job of defending Dwight Howard. I just don't see the combination of Jason Collins and little-used Etan Thomas being able to contain Howard, which means the Hawks may have to double him more. That also means Orlando will get more open 3-point looks.

Going to the numbers, we find that plays on all teams when the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss, provided that team has a winning percentage between 60% and 75% and is playing a team with a winning record, are 174-113 ATS since 1996. The Magic are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less while the Hawks are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 playoff games as an underdog. Take the Magic.

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Mavs +4
Dallas is the hands down better team. Its starting lineup is more talented and it's bench is far better. This is not the same Dallas team that has bowed out early in recent NBA playoffs. Expect the Mavs to flex their muscles with a Game 4 victory here.

Dallas is 14-6 ATS as a road underdog this season, including 12-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season, winning these games by an average score of 98.4 to 96.6. The Mavs are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

The Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.

What a luxury Dallas has to bring Jason Terry, Peja Stojakovic, Brendan Haywood and Jose Barea off the bench. Expect them to be the difference in Game 4.

4* NBA Playoff Total of the Week on Bulls/Pacers OVER 187.5
We saw 172 total points scored in Game 3, but the Bulls and Pacers shot 38.9% and 37.9% respectively. We'll see much better shooting in this one.

Indiana knows it must play fast to have a shot, and down 0-3, it can play free and loose. The Pacers know they're not going to win this series but they want to steal a game very badly.

Also, the Bulls fit into a very lucrative "over the total" system. Consider that plays Over on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, coming off a road win against a division rival and well rested team (playing only their 2nd game in 5 days) are 85-34 since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have faced an average total of 185.1 and have combined with their opponent to score an average of 193.4 points. This system is 6-1 this season.

The Over is 6-1 in the Pacers' last 7 games as a home underdog and 15-5-1 in their last 21 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. Bet the Over.

3* NBA Playoff SMASH (ESPN) on Knicks -3
Expect the Knicks to bounce back strong at home tonight. Boston has really struggled on the road down the stretch, having lost 4 straight SU and ATS. Also, Boston has been pure fade material any time it is coming off a victory. That's because the Celtics are a poor 9-26-1 ATS in their last 36 games following a win.

The Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 overall, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points.

Amare Stoudemire will be back tonight and Billups could be as well. Regardless if Billups is back, I believe the Knicks have enough to get the win and cover. Expect a huge game from Stoudemire as he takes advantage of Boston's weakened interior defense in the absence of Kendrick Perkins.

The Garden will be rocking as it hosts its first playoff game in 7 years. Expect the home crowd to will the Knicks to victory.

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Blazers -5.5
Portland enjoys one of the best homecourt advantages in the NBA. Motivated by losses in Games 1 and 2, expect the Blazers to bounce back strong with a little help from the raucous home crowd.

Portland is 30-11 this season at the Rose Garden, winning 10 of their last 11. Against Dallas, the Blazers have a 46-18 advantage at home in the regular season and a 6-1 edge in playoff games.

The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Trail Blazers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Mavericks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog.

When going back home following a road game, Portland is an impressive 12-4 ATS this season, winning in this situation by an average of 9.6 points. Portland really is a different team at home and I believe we'll see that tonight.

3* NBA Playoff SMASH on 76ers +5.5
Down 0-2 and off a butt-kickin' in Miami, the 76ers will be lacking no motivation when they step on their home floor tonight.

Revenge has been a great angle for Philly backers. Consider that the 76ers are 15-5 ATS when out to avenge a loss of 10 points or more to an opponent this season. Philly is winning in this situation by an average score of 98.8 to 97.7. If that double-digit loss took place on the road, the above situation tightens up to 11-3 ATS with an average winning margin of 6.5 points.

The 76ers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. (Please note: the 76ers are a 4.5-point underdog at most books).

The Heat are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when playing with 2 days of rest and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Heat are also 3-11 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Philadelphia.

The 76ers are a different team at home and the Heat are about to find that out. Miami has only seen the 76ers once in Philly this season and that came clear back in October before the team jelled under Doug Collins. The 76ers have home wins over the Bulls, Spurs and Celtics this season and appear primed to add Miami to the list. Take the points.

3* NBA Playoffs SMASH (TNT) on Lakers -11.5
The Lakers, which swept the season series against New Orleans, let Chris Paul get whatever he wanted in Game 1 and they paid the consequences. That loss is just the wake-up call the two-time defending champs needed.

The Lakers won't let Paul beat them again tonight. Expect them to double him off the pick-n-roll to force him to give it up. Also, don't be surprised if Kobe Bryant spends some time on the All-Star guard. He has the length to bother Paul's shot and to take away some of his passing lanes. The Lakers held Paul to just 10 points in an 18-point home win last month and they can certainly do it again.

With Gasol, Bynum and Odom, the Lakers have a huge advantage up front. With Aaron Gray listed as doubtful, the Lakers figure to enjoy an even bigger advantage inside in this one.

Expect LA to tighten the screws defensively and really take advantage of their size on their way to a comfortable win. Lay the points.

3* NBA Playoffs *Crunch Time Bailout* on Blazers +3.5
Portland gave Dallas a game in Game 1 despite 2 of 16 shooting from 3-point range and scoring only 81 points because its defense was superb. Portland's offensive struggles in Game 1 actually bode well for us tonight. Consider that the Blazers are 9-1 ATS in road games after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse over the last 2 seasons. They are winning these games by an average score of 95.6 to 91.0. They are also 10-2 ATS this season when out to avenge a loss in which they were held to less than 85 points. They are winning these games by an average score of 99.5 to 94.9.

Despite an 8-point loss in Game 1, the Blazers have still either defeated the Mavs or lost to them by 3 points or less in 3 of the last 4 and 6 of the last 9.

Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that the Mavericks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

Dallas took 29 free throws in Game 1 while Portland only took 13 and coach Nate McMillan wasn't happy. Expect his boys to force the issue more in this one, which will give them an excellent chance to win the game outright.

5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Magic -8.5
Right away I love the fact that plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing with double revenge (straight losses to an opponent), provided their foe is coming off an upset win over a division rival, are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 11.7 points.

In addition, Orlando is 15-5 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more under coach Van Gundy. The Magic are winning by an average of 14.0 points in this situation.

Atlanta is just 6-20 ATS in its last 26 road games in the NBA playoffs, losing these contest by an average of 12.9 points. The Hawks are also 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 playoff games as an underdog while the Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite.

It's desperation time for the Magic as they can't afford to fall behind 0-2. Meanwhile, Atlanta already feels like it has accomplished what it set out to do - steal away homecourt advantage. Orlando will want this one more. Lay the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on 76ers +9.5
After falling in Game 1 by 8 points, the 76ers will up their level of intensity tonight to try to steal away the homecourt advantage.

Philly is the healthier team right now as Miami's Erick Dampier, Mike Miller and Dwayne Wade are all listed as questionable for tonight's game. Wade is dealing with migraines, which will make it very difficult for him to play to his All-Star standards if he is able to go.

After Saturday's defeat, coach Doug Collins and veteran Elton Brand talked a lot about driving the ball aggressively to the basket to get to the foul line. The 76ers haven't done a very good job of that against Miami this season but I expect them to make an extra effort to do so this evening. The execution of this game plan will go a long way toward getting us the cover.

Philly improved to 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games when playing with triple revenge (3 straight losses to an opponent) with its Game 1 cover and this trend is still in play tonight. The 76ers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog. The Heat, meanwhile, are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the 76ers.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Nuggets +6
Motivated by back-to-back April defeats to the Thunder, expect Denver to give its division rivals all they want and more tonight.

The Nuggets have been a tremendous investment recently, especially when on the road and catching points. The Nuggets are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. It is also worth noting that the Thunder are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.

This is the first time this Thunder teams has been expected to win in the postseason. With that comes pressure. The Nuggets won't be feeling nearly as much pressure and should be able to play free and easy as a result. Take the points as Denver has an excellent chance to win Game 1.

3* NBA Playoffs SMASH on Knicks +6
Motivated by losing all 4 regular season meetings to the Celtics, expect the Knicks to give the C's a game this evening.

The Knicks have played Boston very tough in recent meetings. In fact, they have played Boston to within 4 points or fewer in 5 of the last 8 matchups.

New York, which has won 7 of its last 9, enters the playoffs in better form than Boston, which has dropped 7 of its last 13. We also can't ignore the fact that this is Boston's first postseason rodeo in several years without key post defender and rebounder Kendrick Perkins.

The Knicks are 27-12-2 ATS in their last 41 games as an underdog. In addition, they are 16-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season, winning these games by an average score of 106.4 to 103.4. Take the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Hawks +8.5
Much has been made about Atlanta's 0-6 finish, but it didn't really have much incentive as it was locked into the #5 seed. Also, it shouldn't be ignored that the Hawks played the Spurs to a 7-point game and the Heat to an 8-point game during this skid.

Atlanta, which won 3 of 4 against Orlando this season with its lone loss coming by 4 points, has plenty of motivation in this series. You see, Orlando completely embarrassed the Hawks in a 4-game sweep in last year's playoffs.

Atlanta was abused from 3-point range in that series, allowing the Magic to make an average of 11.0 3-point shots per game. But consider that the Hawks enter the playoffs allowing opponents to shoot just 33.8 percent from deep (4th in the NBA), and they have held the Magic to 19 of 84 (22.6 percent) from three-point range this season.

In addition, the Magic are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Take the points.

3* Early NBA Playoffs SMASH (ESPN) on Bulls -11.5
Chicago defeated Indiana by 19 and 21 points in 2 meetings at the United Center this season. It also added another 13-point victory at Conseco. However, the Bulls lost the most recent matchup in this series last month. That defeat assures us Chicago won't be looking ahead.

Consider that Chicago is an impressive 30-15 ATS when out to avenging a same season loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Indiana has struggled on the road all season and is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a road underdog. The Pacers are also 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings in this matchup and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Chicago.

Expect Derrick Rose and company to waste no time sending a message. Lay the points.

4* NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Mavs -9.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses to New Orleans by a combined 3 points, expect the Mavs to give the Hornets a beating. Dallas led 92-85 with a minute to play in the most recent meeting (3/9) between these teams, but New Orleans scored the final eight points to squeak out a 1-point win. You can bet that loss still isn't sitting well. Plus, Dallas still has a shot at the No. 2 seed in the West, which would give it home court through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs.

New Orleans, which is currently tied with Memphis, doesn't want the 7-seed, which would potentially match it up with the Lakers, a team they went 0-4 against. The Hornets would much rather see San Antonio in the first round, a team they split 4 meetings with.

The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Lay the points.

3* NBA Situational SMASH on Jazz -3
Denver is locked into the #5-seed in the West and has no incentive to win here. That's why the Nuggets will be resting Nene, Afflalo, Felton, Martin and possibly Gallinari.

The Jazz are at home, and they will look to win this one for the faithful fans who stuck by them throughout a tough season.

Besides, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the Nuggets are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Utah. Lay the points.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Lakers -6.5
Odds makers are begging for the money to come in on the Spurs with this line but we won't bite. This game means a lot more to the Lakers, and I expect that to show once the ball goes up.

After 5 consecutive losses SU and ATS, Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson have called out the troops. Expect them to respond in a big way against a Spurs team that is much more concerned about limiting its starters minutes to go into the playoffs healthy.

The Lakers dominated the Spurs in a 16-point road rout in the most recent meeting, and they will have the motivation to do it again.

Keep in mind that the Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 2 days of rest and the Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA Southwest division. The Lakers have a lot more to play for here as they try to hold off Dallas and OKC for the #2 seed. Lay the points.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +6
This is a tough spot for the Thunder, playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road following an emotional win over the Lakers. This situation spells letdown for OKC.

Sacramento is quietly playing some of its best ball of the season, going 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games. The Kings will be lacking no motivation tonight as they look to avenge the 30-point loss they took at OKC in the most recent meeting. Fortunately, the Kings have had much better luck against the Thunder at home. Sacramento has either won or lost by 6 points or less in its last 5 home games against the Thunder. This includes a 2-point loss at home earlier this season.

The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 4.5 to 10.0 points. Take the Kings.

3* NBA *Marquee Matchup* on Hawks +7
Motivated by 4 straight defeats, including a brutally embarrassing loss to lowly Washington last game, and a blowout loss at home to Miami last month, expect the Hawks to be ready to go tonight.

Atlanta, which hasn't lost 5 in a row in over 3 years, needs this game to prove to itself that it is capable of winning a playoff series against the East's elite. Atlanta should also benefit from the day off to prepare.

Defeating this motivated Hawks squad will be a tough encore for Miami after such an emotional win over Boston yesterday. The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. The home team is also 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the Hawks.

4* NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Heat -6
Motivated by 3 prior defeats to Boston this season, expect the red hot Heat to have their revenge Sunday afternoon.

Consider that plays on home favorites playing with triple revenge (3 straight losses vs. an opponent) in a game involving two good teams with winning percentages between 60% to 75% are 81-44 ATS since 1996.

Also, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out to avenge a loss to a team that held them less than 85 points in the most recent matchup, provided both teams have winning percentages of 60% to 75%, are 33-10 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 11.7 points.

We'll lay the points with the Heat.

4* NBA Saturday Night *BEST BET* on Jazz +10.5
We saw the way the Jazz got up for the Lakers in their win at LA Tuesday. Following a disappointing performance against Portland, and motivated by 2 prior losses to San Antonio this season, expect the Jazz to give the Spurs a game.

The Spurs have been a poor investment when laying points on their home floor. In fact, they are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. San Antonio has had 2 full days of rest, but odds makers love to overvalue good team in such spots, as evidenced by the fact San Antonio is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest.

Utah, meanwhile, has been a solid investment following a double-digit defeat. Consider that the Jazz are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points. We'll take the points.

3* NBA Revenge SMASH on Kings +9.5
The Kings have quietly been playing some very good basketball, winning 7 of their last 11. They did, however, get their doors blown off by San Antonio last game and they were embarrassed in their most recent visit to Memphis. These losses assure us the Kings will be out for some serious revenge.

The Kings are a much improved team with Tyreke Evans back in action and they have been very strong in revenge spots this season. In fact, Sacramento is 25-13 ATS when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent this season. It is only losing by an average of 2.9 points in this situation. The Kings are also a tremendous 27-12 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons, losing these contests by just 4.2 points on average. Take the points.

3* NBA Letdown Special on Cleveland +9.5
Expect a letdown from Chicago after such a big win over Boston last night. The Bulls will have a tough time getting up for this game against a team they have defeated 3 times this season.

Cleveland is showing some life with back-to-back wins, and its 3 losses to Chicago assure us it will be motivated here. The Cavs, which have a recent home win over the Miami Heat, are 3-0 ATS versus Chicago this season.

The Cavaliers are an impressive 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bulls are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Cleveland. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Celtics +4.5
With Chicago likely to secure home court throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs, Boston will have to win at Chicago if it is to repeat as champions of the East. I expect the Celtics to show the Bulls they can do just that tonight.

The Celtics have been a tremendous investment as an underdog at 9-2 ATS in their last 11 in the role. The Bulls, meanwhile, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.

After winning the season's first 2 meeting by 5 and 12 points respectively, Boston lost the most recent meeting by 11 points at Chicago in January. That actually bodes well for us considering Boston is 10-1 ATS in road games when looking to avenge a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. It has won in this situation by an average of 9.9 points.

Boston has wins at the Lakers, Spurs and Heat and I expect it to add Chicago to the list. Take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers -4.5
Off back-to-back losses, including a butt-kicking at Boston last night, and a double-digit loss to New York in the most recent meeting, the 76ers will be extremely motivated when they hit their home floor this evening.

Since losing 9 of 10, the Knicks have managed to bounce back with 4 straight victories. Forgive me if I'm not impressed. They needed OT to beat the Magic in a game in which Jameer Nelson did not play. After that, wins over New Jersey, Cleveland and Toronto won't impress anyone.

The Knicks are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest.

Philly is 25-12 at home on the season with a 6.0-point average margin of victory, and it has been deadly in bounce back spots. The 76ers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Here's the clincher: Philly is 10-2 ATS when out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent this season, winning in this situation by an average of 8.7 points. Take the 76ers.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Trail Blazers -10.5
With a chance to clinch a spot in the playoffs, the Blazers won't take the Warriors lightly tonight, especially since they lost to Golden State in the most recent meeting.

The Warriors have lost 8 in a row on the road with those losses coming by an average of 13.4 points. 5 of their last 6 road defeats have all come by 11 points or more. The Blazers have won 9 straight at the Rose Garden by an average of 14.4 points. It is also worth noting that the Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Blazers have a huge advantage on the defensive end and in the paint with Warriors missing the inside presence of Andris Biedrins. Expect a big night from LaMarcus Aldridge and for Portland to dominate the glass as they get the win and cover here.

3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Mavericks +4
Motivated by back-to-back SU and ATS defeats, as well as a 3-point loss at Portland last month, expect the Mavs to take the Blazers right down to the wire Sunday.

Dallas has won or lost by 4 points or less in 4 straight, 12 of the last 13 and 25 of the last 27 meetings in this series. It is also worth noting that Dallas is a perfect 9-0 ATS under coach Carlisle in road games off an upset loss as a road favorite. The Mavs have won by an average of 12.0 points in this situation.

The Mavericks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games when playing without a day of rest. The Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Take the Mavs.

4* NBA "Total" Dominator on Cavs/Knicks UNDER 216
The Knicks have been well Over this number in their last 3. Also, the last 2 meetings in this series have gone well Over this number. Despite these things, odds makers have set the line at just 216. I smell something fishy.

NY has lost 11 straight games to the Cavs, including each of the season's first 3 meetings with the league's worst team. That is not sitting well and the Knicks know the only way to do something about it is to "D" up. I'm confident the "D" finally shows up against a Cavs' squad averaging just 94.1 ppg on the road. Cleveland has been held below the century mark in 12 of its last 14 games.

The Under is 9-2 in the Cavaliers' last 11 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog of 11.0 points or more. We'll bet the Under.

4* NBA Friday Night Bailout on Trail Blazers -2.5
Motivated by 3 prior losses to OKC this season, and an upset loss at New Orleans last game, expect the Blazers to get the win and cover at home tonight.

Portland is one tough cookie at home, where it is 26-10 this season. The fact that it is coming off an upset loss on the road is also very significant considering coach McMillan's teams are an impressive 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following an upset loss as a road favorite. They are winning by an average score of 97.9 to 89.4 in this situation.

In addition, the Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Also, the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the Thunder are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +1.5
The Grizzlies are in great form, and I love their chances tonight against a New Orleans team minus leading scorer David West. Having lost both previous meetings to New Orleans this season, the Grizzlies will be lacking no motivation here.

The Grizzlies are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. They are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 versus divisional foes, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win.

The Hornets are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less, 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points.

In addition, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Memphis.

4* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Mavericks +7
The Mavericks' 27-10 road record is the best in the NBA, and it would likely be even better had Dirk Nowitzki not missed time with an injury earlier this season. And of those 10 defeats, it is worth noting that 5 have come by 5 points or less. Also consider that Dallas is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog this season, winning these contests by an average score of 98.5 to 96.4.

This game is important for both teams in terms of Western Conference playoff seeding, so I'm expecting a battle in which the points will come in handy. Dallas has either won or lost by 7 points or less to the Lakers in 4 straight and 17 of the last 18.

The Mavs played last night, but they were in L.A. so travel was not an issue. Besides, the Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest.

The Lakers have had a few days off, which is one reason why this line is elevated. However, it is worth noting that LA is 4-12 ATS in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. It is only winning by an average of 5.7 points in this situation.

The road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings and the Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Lakers at Staples. Take the points.

5* NBA "Total" Game of the Week on Warriors/Grizzlies UNDER 211.5
The Warriors and Grizzlies have combined for at least 213 points in each of their last 8 meetings and yet the books opened with an over/under line of 210. In addition, Golden State has been Over this number in each of its last 4 games and Memphis was Over it in its last game. I smell a rat.

Naturally, the public is all over the Over, which is precisely where the books want it. I won't hesitate to go against the grain, avoiding what is certainly a bookmaker trap.

Golden State has the perception of a high-scoring team, but it hasn't been nearly as good offensively on the road. As a result, the Warriors are 24-14 Under in road games this season. They are also 37-23 Under in a road game when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons.

It is also to our benefit that the Warriors are coming off a tiring overtime game last night. That's because the Under is 5-1 in the Warriors' last 6 games when playing without a day of rest. Also, the Under is 16-3 when the Warriors are playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons.

Also, Memphis has held 4 of its last 5 foes under the century mark. It has also held its opponents to an average of 87.3 points in its last 4 home games. With 2 full days of rest to gear up for this one, I expect the Grizzlies to be very successful on the defensive end against a tired Warriors squad. We'll pound the Under tonight.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Suns pk
Off back-to-back SU and ATS defeats, and further motivated by consecutive defeats to Sacramento, expect the Suns to rise to the occasion tonight.

The Kings have won 3 in a row SU and ATS, but that's not enough to pull me off the Suns in this highly motivated spot. Plus, Phoenix has taken 12 of the last 15 meetings in this series.

The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a losing SU record and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Phoenix is also 7-0 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams (scoring 99+ points/game) in the 2nd half of the season this season. It is defeating these foes by an average score of 109.6 to 104.4.

The Kings are 18-40-1 ATS in their last 59 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Also, they are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. We'll take the Suns.

4* NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Pacers OVER 188
The Indiana Pacers will have an excellent chance to win this game because they should be able to dictate the tempo, which should result in this one going over the number.

Motivated by back-to-back poor offensive performances, and a trio of poor offensive showings against Boston this season, expect Indiana to really look to push the pace early in this one. Plus, Boston just played yesterday, so it will have a much more difficult time staying in front of the fresher Pacers.

Going to the numbers we find that Boston is 13-2 Over off a road no-cover where it won straight up as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. We are seeing an average of 200.8 total points scored in this situation. Bean Town is also 17-5 Over in its last 22 road games after allowing 85 points or less in 2 straight games. We are seeing an average of 196.6 total points scored in these spots.

It is also worth noting that the Over is 5-0 in the Pacers' last 5 games as a home underdog, 6-1 in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 9-3 in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Take the Over tonight.

3* Sunday NBA *Underdog Shocker* on Cavs +6
Without Joe Johnson on the floor, and after clinching a playoff berth Saturday, I expect a major lapse in concentration from the Hawks here, which will leave them very susceptible.

Cleveland enters this contest with some much needed momentum and it will be hungry after losing each of the season's first two to the Hawks. Because Atlanta has already defeated the Cavs twice, it will be much more concerned with upcoming matchups against Orlando and Boston.

Atlanta is a disastrous 5-14 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season, losing by an average score of 98.1 to 96.8 in these spots. The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win. Take the points.

3* Never Lost NBA SMASH on Knicks -4
The Bobcats managed to erase a 13-point 4th quarter deficit to upset the Celtics last night. That defeat sets them up for a major letdown against a Knicks team in need of a win in the worst way.

It took the Miami Heat 5 straight defeats before they regained their form and I believe 5 losses will be the magic number for New York as well. Consider that the Knicks are a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after 5 or more consecutive losses under coach D'Antoni.

The Knicks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Knicks are the much more talented team, and they need a win in the worst way. I think they finally play with a sense of urgency and desperation to get the job done tonight.

3* NBA Friday Night Blowout on Celtics -13
Charlotte has lost 10 of its last 12 and those 10 losses have come by an average of 17.5 points. This team just hasn't been the same since moving Gerald Wallace to the Blazers. Playing at home Wednesday in a game against Indiana that could really help its playoff chances, Charlotte was kicked 111-88. I just don't see this Bobcats team staying with the highly motivated Celtics this evening.

Boston wants the No. 1 seed in the East to secure homecourt, but it is now looking up at the Bulls after losing to Memphis last game. That defeat has left the Celtics very hungry. Plus, Boston will show no mercy to a team that upset them last month. Prior to that defeat, the C's had won 6 in a row against Charlotte by an average of 18.8 points.

In addition, the Bobcats aren't expected to have Stephen Jackson in the lineup, which means they will be hurting for offense. We'll lay the points here.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Nuggets -4
The fact that Tim Duncan is out is beside the point. The Nuggets have lost each of the season's first 3 meetings with the San Antonio, which means they will be extremely hungry tonight.

Trading Carmelo Anthony has lifted a big weight off Denver's shoulders. The team was clearly distracted early on when his future with the team was still up in the air. Now that he's gone Denver is playing free and easy, especially at home. The Nuggets are a perfect 6-0 at home since the All-Star break with those 6 wins coming by an average of 23.3 points.

Ty Lawson is really looking to push the ball now that he is running the show, and Denver's defense has picked up. The Nuggets are only allowing 94.7 points per game since the Melo trade - 8.4 below their season mark.

The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning SU record and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

With a big cushion in the West, the Spurs can afford to be very cautious down the stretch. Denver, meanwhile, would like to jump up and steal the #4 seed from Oklahoma City. "They (OKC) probably have too much of a gap on us," coach George Karl said. "But let's try to scare them. You never know in basketball." Lay the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Hawks +4.5
Atlanta has had Chicago's number, going 7-2 SU and ATS in this series the last 3 seasons, including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home during this span. After winning the season's first 3 meetings, Atlanta was crushed by 18 points at the United Center earlier this month. That defeat assures us that the Hawks will not be lacking any motivation tonight.

Overall, Atlanta has won its last 6 home games in this series, and those wins have come by an average of 14.0 points.

The Hawks will also benefit from having a day to gear up for this one. The Bulls have the difficult task of playing this one without a day of rest and preparation.

The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and I fully expect this trend to continue. Take Atlanta and the points.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -12.5
Off a highly emotional upset win against the Thunder Sunday, expect the Raptors to fall flat on their face against a hungry Nuggets team looking to bounce back from a pair of close losses to Orlando and Miami.

Denver is a perfect 5-0 at home since the All-Star break, winning those games by an average of 21.4 points. Denver has also won 7 in a row against the Raptors with those wins coming by an average of 16.1 points. The Nuggets have also won their last 6 home games against the Raptors. The last 3 home wins have come by 18, 39 and 32 points.

The Raptors are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Lay the points.

3* NBA *Undervalued Underdog* on Jazz +8
I have had a lot of success in recent years playing teams in the second game of a back-to-back that are coming off a loss against a rested opponent off a win. That's because odds makers tend to overvalue the rested team, and that's precisely what they have done here.

Memphis is one of the teams Utah is chasing for the final playoff spot in the West, so we can expect the Jazz to leave it all on the floor tonight.

Utah has had a ton of success against the Grizzlies. It has won 40 of 55 meetings (since 1996), including 8 of the last 10. The Jazz, in fact, are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Memphis.

It is also certainly worth noting that Memphis is 4-13 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the 2nd half of the season since last season. It is also worth noting that Utah is a perfect 11-0 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games since 1996. In other words, the Jazz have been an extremely successful ATS team when scoring a lot of points. We'll take the points as Utah takes Memphis down to the wire tonight.

3* Sunday NBA SMASH on Hawks -7
Motivated by back-to-back blowout losses to Denver and Miami, expect the Hawks to bounce back strong here against a Pistons squad they have owned at home.

The Hawks have won 5 in a row at home in this series with those wins coming by an average score of 94 to 86. Plus, Detroit is just 7-27 this season away from home, entering this contest with 6 straight road defeats. Those 6 losses have come by an average of 11.0 points.

Atlanta defeated Detroit by 15 on the road last month, but the Pistons haven't exactly been a strong revenge team. In fact, Detroit is just 14-25 ATS when out to avenge a home loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Pistons are losing these contests by an average of 8.5 points. Take the Hawks.

3* NBA Saturday Night Blowout on Grizzlies -9
Indiana is due for a major letdown following last night's emotionally and physically draining overtime win over the Bulls. Memphis, meanwhile, finds itself in major bounce back mode following an embarrassing loss to the Knicks.

Indiana has really struggled against the Grizz, going 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings. It is also worth noting that Memphis has won the last 3 in the series by 11 points or more.

The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win and 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games when playing without a day of rest.

The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing with 1 day of rest and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. This is a good spot for the Grizz against a team they have owned. Lay the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Warriors +5.5
With 3 prior losses to the Suns this season, including a 24-point pounding in the last matchup, you can bet the Warriors will be hungry tonight.

As if those 3 defeats aren't enough motivation, blowing an 18-point lead in a loss to Dallas last game should do the trick.

The Suns have lost 4 in a row, and I expect their struggles to continue with Steve Nash at less than 100 percent. Nash has been severely slowed down by a pelvis injury. "He tried [referring to Wednesday's game at New Orleans], but he's not the same guy," coach Alvin Gentry said. "I didn't expect him to be...He's not going to be at 100 percent, and with him that's important that he has the zip."

While Nash should still be decent on the offensive end, he will be a big liability on defense against Golden State's quicker and more athletic guards.

The Suns are a poor 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. In addition, the underdog is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Take the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Celtics -10
Boston is coming off one of its worst performances of the season, a 79-88 loss at New Jersey. With that defeat, it gave Chicago an opportunity to take over the top spot in the East last night. Motivated by that ugly defeat, and looking to reclaim a share of the East lead, expect Boston to take care of business on its home floor this evening.

The Celtics already own 11 and 12-point wins over the Pacers this season. Plus, they are 6-0 at home against Indiana since Garnett and Allen arrived in Boston, winning these games by an average of 12.8 points.

Indiana is coming off a huge home-and-home sweep of the Knicks, earning last night's win on a buzzer-beater by Danny Granger. It will be very difficult for the Pacers to bounce back from such an emotionally and physically draining victory. The Pacers are a lousy 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games when playing without a day of rest.

The Celtics are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games following a SU loss. Expect Boston to put the clamps on defensively on its way to a win and cover. Lay the number.

3* Tuesday NBA SMASH on Knicks -4
Motivated by back-to-back embarrassing losses, including one to Indiana Sunday, expect the Knicks to have their revenge tonight.

Right away I like the fact that plays on road favorites out to avenge an upset loss to an opponent, provided they are coming off an upset loss at home, are an impressive 81-40 ATS since 1996.

In addition, NY has been strong on the road. In fact, it is 23-9 ATS in road games this season. It is also worth noting that the road team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in this series.

The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less while the Pacers are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Also, the Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Expect the Knicks to get their revenge.

4* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -5.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses, included a brutally embarrassing 33-point loss at Miami last game, expect Memphis to bounce back strong at home against one of the worst road teams in the NBA this evening.

The Clippers are just 8-26 on the road this season. They are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 road games, 18-42 ATS in their last 60 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog.

Memphis won the season's first meeting in LA by 1 point and the numbers suggest the Clippers won't have their revenge. In fact, they are on a 12-29 ATS slide in road games when looking to avenge a close loss of 3 points or less, losing these contests by an average score of 101.6 to 91.7.

The Clippers are coming off a strong offensive performance (especially in the first half) against Washington in their last game, but that doesn't figure to do them any favors tonight. Consider that LA is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. It is losing by an average score of 105.2 to 94.3 in this situation.

The Grizzlies are 32-15 ATS in their last 47 games overall, 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU loss, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 23-6 ATS in their last 29 versus the Western Conference. Lay the points.

3* Sunday NBA SMASH on Warriors -6.5
Minnesota is just 5-27 on the road this season, where it is losing by an average of 9.2 points. Golden State will not be showing the T-Wolves any mercy this evening after losing in Minnesota on Feb. 27. Prior to that defeat, the Warriors had won 5 straight in the series by an average of 15.0 points.

The numbers suggest this is a terrific spot to fade the T-Wolves. In fact, plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points coming off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival and up against an opponent off a home win, are 32-9 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are losing by an average of 9.0 points. It is also worth noting that this system is a near-perfect 10-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.

The Warriors have never lost at home following a game in which they scored at least 110 points under coach Smart. They are a perfect 8-0 ATS under this parameter with an average margin of victory of 11.3 points. Take the Warriors.

3* NBA Saturday Night SMASH on Bucks -2
This is a letdown spot for the 76ers following Friday

3* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +4.5
The Bobcats, which have lost 6 in a row and were embarrassed at Portland last week, will be out for revenge tonight. Leading scorer Stephen Jackson missed the Bobcats' game at Portland. He'll be back on the floor tonight, and I expect him to make all the difference in the world.

It can be good time to jump on a team when that team hasn't been covering the spread. That's because odds makers continue to adjust their lines in favor of the slumping side. With this in mind, consider that Charlotte is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 100.2 to 95.0 in this situation. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Mavericks -5.5
This is a letdown spot for the Knicks and a bounce back spot for the Mavs. It will be difficult for the Knicks to bring as much energy needed tonight following such an emotional victory on Melo's buzzer-beater last night. Dallas, meanwhile, will have no trouble getting up for this one after blowing a late 7-point lead and the game to New Orleans.

For the books to favor the Mavs by this many points following 4 ATS defeats in a row, knowing the amount of backers New York has, I have to believe odds makers are confident in Dallas tonight. And why shouldn't they be?

Dallas has won 16 of 18 meetings in this series, and it holds a big edge in the backcourt with Chauncey Billups still likely out.

Dallas is 20-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Lay the points.

4* Humpday NBA Blowout on Magic -8.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and an embarrassing home loss to Sacramento last month, expect the Magic to show no mercy in California's capitol city tonight.

Star center Dwight Howard was forced to miss Monday's game against Portland, serving a mandatory one-game suspension for picking up his 16th technical foul. I especially expect Howard to deliver in this one.

Plays on road favorites out to avenging an upset loss to an opponent, provided they are coming off an upset loss at home, are an impressive 81-39 ATS since 1996.

In addition, the Magic are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Kings, meanwhile, are 14-29-1 ATS in their last 44 games as a home underdog, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog period and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Lay the points with the Magic tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +5.5
Motivated by back-to-back home losses to Oklahoma City and New York, and further motivated by a 24-point loss to the Lakers last month, expect Atlanta to give LA all it wants and more tonight.

Because LA crushed the Hawks 2 weeks back, it will be much more interested in upcoming games against Miami, Dallas and Orlando.

Atlanta has won 3 straight at home against the Lakers with the last 2 wins coming by double digits. In fact, the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

In addition, plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 4 or more consecutive unders, are 55-26 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are only winning by an average of 2.9 points. Also, the Lakers are 2-14 ATS after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average score of 96.8 to 95.4. Pound the Hawks.

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Hornets +10.5
Odds makers have overreacted to Chris Paul's expected absence with this line, especially considering the Bulls enter off an emotionally and physically exhausting win over Miami.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points - tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days against an opponent playing 6 or more games in 10 days - are 76-39 ATS the last 5 seasons.

Also, plays against favorites of 10 or more points - tired team playing 6 or more games in 10 days and with a winning record on the season - are 167-102 ATS the last 5 seasons.

The Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take them catching 10-plus this evening.

4* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +3
The Thunder were pushed to OT by the Suns Sunday, but I believe the Grizzlies used more energy in their win over the Mavs yesterday. Memphis left it all on the floor to erase an 18-point deficit and won on Zack Randolph's 17-footer with 0.3 left. It will be extremely difficult for the Grizzlies to get back up for this one after such an emotional win, especially against a Thunder team with payback in mind.

OKC will be motivated by a 4-point loss at home to the Grizzlies last month. The Thunder are one of the premier revenge teams in the NBA. In fact, they are 17-8 ATS when out to avenge a loss to an opponent this season. In addition, they are 8-1 ATS in road games when looking for revenge, provided they allowed their opponent to score 100 points or more on them in the previous loss.

The Thunder are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Memphis. Also, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the Thunder and the points.