4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Warriors +9.5
The Warriors will be extremely motivated when they step on the court tonight as they look to avenge last week's 115-93 loss to Boston. In addition to this being a highly motivated spot for the Warriors, they should also benefit from catching the Celtics at a good time. The veteran Celtics' starters have been forced to play significant minutes lately due to a short and ineffective bench. Key reserve Glen "Big Baby" Davis will not be in action this evening, and the new Celtics are yet to find a rhythm. Plus, Ray Allen will be playing with a banged up leg that forced him to miss Thursday's practice.

The Warriors are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 vs. the NBA Atlantic division. They are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings at Boston. Also, the underdog is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 meetings.

Boston is a lousy 9-23 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons. It is also just 5-16 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season, only winning by an average score of 93.7 to 91.2 in this situation. Take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week (ESPN) on Bulls +2
After such an emotionally and physically draining comeback victory over the Miami Heat last night, the Magic won't have enough left in the tank to conquer this hungry Bulls squad.

Chicago knows how Miami feels, having blown a 17-point halftime lead against Atlanta Wednesday. That loss will have the Bulls extremely motivated this evening.

This is an ideal spot to go against Orlando since its starters logged so many minutes last night. In fact, the Magic are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

It hasn't been good practice to fade Chicago following a defeat. That's because the Bulls are an impressive 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss. The Bulls are also 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog and 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that Chicago is a perfect 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Great spot for Chicago.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Jazz -3.5
Working off a strong performance against the East-leading Boston Celtics, and with 2 days to gear up, expect the Jazz to get back in the win column at home tonight.

Denver has been rolling since the Carmelo Anthony trade, but this is a tough spot for the Nuggets. This will be their second game in as many nights and their third game in 4 days. We should see some fatigue start to set in here, which accentuates the loss of Danilo Gallinari. Plus, both Raymond Felton and Ty Lawson have been dealing with the flu. With all this in mind, it is worth noting that Denver is 12-23 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back over the last 2 seasons. It is also 15-28 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. More recently, the Nuggets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games when playing without a day of rest.

Utah has been dominant at home in this series, winning 27 of its last 31 home games against Denver. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Utah.

Lastly, the Nuggets are 8-19-4 ATS in their last 31 games following a win of more than 10 points and 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take the Jazz.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Trail Blazers -3
Off back-to-back defeats, including an embarrassing loss to Houston last night, expect the Blazers to take out their frustration on the lowly Kings. A brutal 15-point home loss to Sacramento in January should have the Blazers taking the floor with even more focus this evening.

Right away, I love the fact that plays on road favorites out to avenge an upset loss to an opponent, following an upset loss at home, are an impressive 80-39 ATS since 1996. Also, plays on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are out to avenge a loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, following an upset loss, are 38-15 ATS the last 5 seasons.

Portland has won 4 straight on the road. Plus, it has had very little trouble with Sacramento. The Blazers have won 8 of the last 9 meetings, including all 4 at Sacramento by an average score of 105-92 during this span.

The Trail Blazers are 25-10-3 ATS in their last 38 games as a road favorite, 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 games playing without a day of rest and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Kings are a lousy 10-29-1 ATS in their last 40 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

The Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Sacramento and the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings overall. Bet the Blazers.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Warriors/Wizards OVER 211
After struggling offensively the past couple games, the Wizards should have no trouble scoring on the Warriors tonight. The Warriors are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, allowing 107.3 ppg on the road. In addition, fatigued legs are not conducive to playing good defense, and the Warriors will be fatigued having just played last night.

We all know what Golden State is capable offensively, and it shouldn't have any trouble scoring the ball against a Wizards squad that has allowed an average of 110.0 ppg over their last 8 games.

The Over is 5-0 in the Warriors' last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Over is 4-0 in the Wizards' last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Over.

3* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -1.5
The Grizzlies want this one badly after falling at San Antonio Sunday. Considering they have won 4 straight and 12 of 14 at home, and San Antonio will be without Tony Parker, I like their chances.

Manu Ginobili stepped up and recorded 18 of his season-best 35 points in the fourth quarter to help the Spurs win Sunday. I expect Shane Battier to make sure Ginobli doesn't go off again. Without Parker to break down the defense and get the Spurs out in transition, Ginobli will be counted on heavily tonight. The Grizz will pay extra attention to him to make sure the other guys beat them, and I don't think they're good enough.

Memphis has been extraordinary in revenge spots. In fact, the Grizzlies are 14-5 ATS when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent this season. The Grizz are winning these games by an average score of 102.7 to 98.6. Memphis is also 16-5 ATS when out to avenge a road loss to opponent this season, winning in this situation by an average score of 103.1 to 98.7.

The Grizzlies are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 vs. Western Conference, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA Southwest, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that the Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. Take Memphis.

3* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -6
This is a tough spot for Atlanta, playing the second game of a back-to-back and its 5th road game in 7 days. Denver, which has had 2 full days to rest and prepare, will be the much fresher team this evening. Expect the Nuggets to really look to push the tempo in this one to take advantage of this fatigued Atlanta squad.

Denver is 24-7 at home this season, including 2-0 SU and ATS at home since making the Carmelo Anthony trade. The Nuggets are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.

Also, the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series.

Lastly, plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points playing on back-to-back days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 96-55 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

3* NBA National TV SMASH on Lakers +1
The Lakers have looked like a different team since the All-Star break with 3 consecutive wins SU and ATS. The Thunder, meanwhile, enter Sunday's contest off back-to-back defeats.

We played against the Thunder on Friday in the wake of a trade that sent Jeff Green to Boston, and they went down 111-88 to the Magic. While I expect a better effort from OKC today, I still have it coming up short.

The Thunder are likely to have trade pickups Mohammed and Robinson in action today, but they are still expected to be without Perkins. They acquired Perkins to match up better defensively with the Lakers' size, and they will have a tough time doing that without him here. Also, the loss of Green makes the Thunder easier to defend. Now even more attention can be paid to Durant and Westbrook without a consistent third scorer.

Plus, the Thunder gave L.A. all it wanted and more in the postseason last year, so the Lakers will be out to send a message.

The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Western Conference, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the NBA Northwest and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Thunder are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 5-22 ATS in their last 27 Sunday games. Take the Lakers.

4* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* (ESPN) on Trail Blazers -6
This is a letdown spot for the new-look Nuggets, coming off a big win over Boston last night. This is a bounce back spot for the Blazers, meanwhile, following Wednesday's loss to the Lakers.

I wasn't very impressed with the Nuggets in their win last night. They were able to take advantage of the short-handed Celtics, but it's clear they have a lot of work to do to regain some chemistry. Having had a day to rest, Portland will be the fresher team. It also has the benefit of playing with a lineup that wasn't turned over. Denver's chemistry issues should really surface tonight in their first road game following the break.

The Nuggets are 8-17-3 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog, 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games when playing without a day of rest and 4-15-3 ATS in their last 22 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Trail Blazers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

Lastly, the home team is a tremendous 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Lay the points with Portland.

5* NBA Game of the Week (ESPN) on Magic -7
The Magic will be extremely hungry to get back in the win column tonight following a loss to the lowly Kings. A 1-point loss at Oklahoma City last month provides the Magic with added motivation as well.

The Thunder gave up a key piece of their team by trading Jeff Green to the Celtics. We're talking about a high energy player who gets the team 15 points per night. Without Green, it allows teams to focus even more attention on Durant and Westbrook. The loss of Nenad Krstic also hurts, especially tonight since Kendrick Perkins isn't expected to be available to guard Dwight Howard.

Going to the numbers, we find that plays on any team coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 31-10 ATS since 1996. This system is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.

The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 11-2 ATS in home games versus explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are winning these games by an average score of 107.6 to 92.8. Lay the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Heat -2.5
This is a statement game for Miami, which is 1-6 against Boston, Chicago, San Antonio, Dallas and the Los Angeles Lakers. The Heat lost by 3 points at Chicago last month, but they didn't have LeBron James in that game. Plus, Chris Bosh left that game early with an ankle injury. With all of Miami's big three on the court tonight, I'm expecting a different result.

The Bulls are in a difficult scheduling spot, having played a tough one in Toronto last night. Noah, which saw his first action in months against the Raptors, likely won't be as effective tonight as it will take some time for him to regain his game shape. You can run all you want to try to keep your fitness, but it's not the same as playing in a high intensity basketball game.

The Heat have had the benefit of a day to rest their legs and really gear up for this one. The Heat are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games when playing with 1 day of rest. I'm backing the fresher team that is out to make a statement. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +3
I won't hesitate to get behind the Hawks in this highly motivated spot. Out to avenge an earlier season home loss to Phoenix, and looking to quickly erase the memory of last night's butt-kicking in L.A., expect the Hawks to play with a ton of energy and passion tonight.

Even though Atlanta played last night, fatigue won't be an issue following a lengthy layoff prior to that game. Plus, the Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest. In addition, the time to back Atlanta has been following a defeat. That's because the Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. It is also worth noting that they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less.

Phoenix has not been able to be trusted in the small chalk recently. In fact, the Suns are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Suns are also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

Lastly, it is certainly worth noting that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points with Atlanta tonight.

3* NBA SMASH on Raptors +7
Motivated by a pair of losses to Charlotte already this season, and looking to avoid matching a franchise-worst 11-game road losing streak, expect the Raptors to take the Bobcats down to the wire tonight.

Charlotte is an improved team under Silas, but it is getting a little too much respect with this line, especially considering each of the last 4 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 6 or fewer points. It is also worth noting that the Bobcats 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. In addition, the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

The Raptors entered the All-Star break playing well. They defeated the Clippers and took Miami down to the wire for back-to-back covers. Expect Toronto's solid play to continue in this highly motivated spot.

4* Thursday NBA *BEST BET* (TNT) on Suns +1.5
Playing at home with a day of rest under their belt, expect the Suns to avenge their Dec. loss at Dallas. The Mavs had a relatively easy time with the Suns in the season's first meeting, but they caught a major break with Steve Nash leaving that game in the first quarter with a neck injury. Prior to that game, Nash had averaged 19.7 points and 11.6 assists against his former team. Nash loves playing the Mavs, and I expect a big game from him this evening.

Phoenix does a great job of controlling the tempo at home. Its uptempo style of play should be successful in wearing down a Dallas team that is playing the second game of a back-to-back.

The Suns are coming off a 1-point win over Utah. This is significant because close victories have given this team a huge momentum boost. In fact, Phoenix is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less under coach Gentry, winning in this situation by an average of 10.0 points. In addition, the Suns are a perfect 10-0 ATS in home games after a win by 6 points or less under Gentry, winning by an average of 15.8 points in this situation. We'll take this 18-0 ATS never lost angle to the bank tonight.

3* NBA SMASH on Nets +11.5
I don't see the Celtics getting up for a New Jersey team they defeated by 25 in December following a big win over the Miami Heat. Boston is ready to coast into the All-Star break.

The Nets, meanwhile, will be looking to gain some momentum prior to the All-Star break after back-to-back losses to New York and San Antonio. The Nets will also be very motivated here after losing each of the season's first two meetings with Boston. Knowing they played the Celtics to a 6-point game in the Garden earlier this season, and motivated by the 25-point home loss, the Nets will be ready to go tonight.

New Jersey is an impressive 16-5 ATS as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons, only losing these contests by 5.8 points on average. Boston, meanwhile, is 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons, only winning these games by an average of 6.1 points. The Nets are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 11.0 points or more.

The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Nets are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Boston. Take the points with New Jersey.

5* NBA Game of the Month on Bulls -9
Expect a letdown from Charlotte tonight following a huge blowout win over the two-time defending champion LA Lakers last night. "This is probably the biggest, monumental win for the Bobcats and probably the biggest loss for them," interim coach Paul Silas said. "It was huge." In other words, Charlotte is feeling pretty fat and happy right now.

Right away I love the fact that Charlotte is only 4-12 in the second game of back-to-backs this season. Charlotte

3* NBA Monday Night SMASH on Timberwolves +3
The T-Wolves will be out for blood on their home floor tonight after losing the season's first 3 meetings with Portland. With a day of rest to get geared up for this game, Minnesota has the advantage against a Blazers team playing their 2nd game in 2 days and 3rd in 4 days.

I don't believe Portland will have enough left in the tank after a hard-fought win over Detroit yesterday. Minnesota, meanwhile, will draw extra motivation from Saturday's poor showing at home against Philly.

In addition, plays on any explosive offensive team (102 ppg or more average) against an average offensive team (92-98 ppg average) after 42+ games and following a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are an impressive 45-16 ATS the last 5 seasons, including a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Take the T-Wolves.

3* Sunday NBA SMASH on Warriors +1
Extremely motivated following perhaps its worst performance of the season, and with 2 full days to gear up for a team playing the second game of a back-to-back, expect Golden State to take care of business on its home floor Sunday. The Thunder got all they wanted and more from Sacramento yesterday, which makes playing a night later against a much fresher team very difficult.

I absolutely love the fact that the Warriors are an impressive 22-5 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, bouncing back to win by an average score of 110.2 to 109.4.

The Warriors scored 109 points on the Thunder at Oklahoma City to cover the 7-point spread in a 5-point loss in December. I mention this not only because the Warriors will be further motivated to avenge that loss, but because they are a perfect 8-0 ATS when they score 105 to 109 points in a game this season.

It also can't be ignored that the Thunder are a dismal 5-21 ATS in their last 26 Sunday games. Take the Warriors.

3* NBA *Marquee Matchup* on Knicks +3.5
The Lakers are coming off their biggest win of the season, which leaves them very susceptible to a letdown this evening. I expect the Knicks to be ready, however, if L.A. does show up.

New York has gotten up for the best teams in the league all season. In fact, the Knicks have home wins over Chicago, Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Miami. Plus, they even played Boston to a 2-point game at home.

A 109-87 loss in L.A. last month is all the motivation New York needs tonight. Consider that the Knicks are an impressive 10-2 ATS when out to avenge a same season loss this season. The Knicks are actually winning these contests by an average score of 107.2 to 105.6. New York is also a dominant 19-6 ATS as an underdog this season. Take the points as the Knicks give the Lakers all they want and more this evening.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +4
This is a tough situational spot for San Antonio, which is playing its 3rd road game in 4 days. The location makes this spot even more difficult. In fact, the Spurs have won only twice in their last 10 visits to Philly.

Under Doug Collins, the 76ers are currently playing their best basketball of the season. They won't be lacking any motivation tonight as they look to avenge a 116-93 Nov. loss at San Antonio. Revenge has been an ideal situation for Philly. In fact, the 76ers are an impressive 13-3 ATS when looking to avenge a road loss this season, winning these games by an average score of 104.3 to 94.6. If that road loss came by 10 points or more, this system tightens up to an awesome 8-1 ATS with an average winning margin of 10.6 points.

In addition, the 76ers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. Also, the Spurs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings at Philadelphia and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Warriors +6
Riding the momentum of last night's win over Denver, the Warriors are in great position to avenge Monday's home loss to Phoenix. In that game, Phoenix shot 43.3% from the 3-point stripe while Golden State shot just 11.1%. That was the difference. I just don't see there being that big of a discrepancy this time around considering the Warriors are shooting the 3 nearly 2% better than the Suns on the season.

I know the Warriors just played last night, but this young team can handle it. In fact, the Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes in a game the previous day.

The Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings in this series. I'll ride the underdog here tonight.

4* NBA Underdog *Power Play* on Clippers +7
The Clippers have lost 4 straight, but 3 of those losses came to Chicago, Miami and Orlando - 3 of the best defensive teams in the NBA. New York isn't nearly as solid at the defensive end, allowing 106.0 ppg. This gives the Clippers an excellent opportunity to keep this one close tonight.

With as high as the odds makers have set the total, it is clear they aren't expecting much "D" to be played by the Knicks. In fact, New York is just 16-30 ATS in home games when the total is greater than or equal to 210. It is losing these games by an average score of 109.5 to 106.7. Also, the Knicks can't help but be more preoccupied with Friday's matchup against the Lakers.

The Knicks are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +4
Last night we played on a 76ers team that had lost the season's first two meetings with Atlanta. Motivated by those losses, Philly rolled on the road. We'll make a similar play with the Bobcats tonight.

Charlotte will be out for blood after losing the season's first two meetings with the Pacers. It's difficult to beat any team three straight times, especially one playing as well as Charlotte. The Bobcats are coming off a huge confidence boosting win over Boston, and they have been a covering machine on the road. In fact, the Bobcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog.

It's going to be tough for the Pacers to get up for this game tonight after blowing a 14-point lead in last night's loss to Miami. I have a feeling that loss will still be hanging over their head. It has been extremely lucrative to fade the Pacers in back-to-back spots period, as they are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest.

The Bobcats should be the fresher, more focused team tonight. Take the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Grizzlies +7.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and out to avenge last month's loss to the Thunder, expect the Grizzlies to be in this one all the way Tuesday night.

This young and talented Memphis squad has been terrific when catching points. In fact, the Grizzlies are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

Memphis just played last night, but it is an impressive 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing without a day of rest. It is even 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games when the starting 5 combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The Thunder have had a couple days to rest, but they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days rest. OKC is being overvalued by odds makers tonight, and we'll look to take advantage. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +5
Atlanta won the season's first two meetings by just 3 and 5 points respectively. It will have a difficult time making it 3 in a row against a 76ers team that is playing some ball.

Philly has won 6 of 8, and it has played its best against some of the best teams in the league. In fact, Philly is an impressive 10-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season, defeating these foes by an average score of 96.6 to 93.5. The 76ers are also 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games when playing with double revenge (2 straight losses vs. an opponent). They are winning by an average score of 100.2 to 99.6 in these contests.

The 76ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.

Lastly, plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, if they are a hot team with 6 or 7 wins in their last 8 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season, are 71-38 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Warriors -4.5
The Warriors are playing some of their best ball of the season. They have won three in a row while holding their opponents to just 88.3 ppg. Motivated by 3 straight losses to the Suns, expect the Warriors to keep right on rolling tonight.

The Suns saw their 3-game winning streak come to an end in their last game, and getting back on track on the road will be no easy task. Phoenix is just 9-14 away from home this season, and it has lost 4 in a row on the road to West foes by at least 5 points.

The time to back Golden State is when it is laying points at home. In fact, the Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Suns, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

The Suns are just 5-13 ATS in the last 18 meetings at Golden State. Take the Warriors tonight.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Lakers -3.5
The Lakers got their 7-game road trip started off right with a win over New Orleans, and I expect them to keep rolling tonight. The Lakers may have Boston on deck, but I don't see them getting caught looking ahead here. They have dropped two in row to Memphis, including an embarrassing 104-85 home loss last month. Those 2 defeats ensure that the Lakers will be very focused this evening.

The Lakers are 16-8 on the road this season, and they have been extremely reliable of late in the road chalk. In fact, the Lakers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, are only 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less.

While Memphis has won the last 2 in this series, L.A. has won 7 of the last 10. This is an important road trip for the two-time defending champs in terms of their quest for a 3-peat, and I'm confident they won't disappoint. Lay the points.

3* Sunday NBA SMASH on Nets +1
As if back-to-back losses aren't enough to fuel New Jersey's fire, a quick recollection of last week's 124-92 loss at Indiana should do the trick. Expect things to swing New Jersey's way this time around.

The Pacers have really struggled on the road, where they have lost 14 of their last 16. The Nets, meanwhile, have been playing good ball at home, where they are 5-2 in their last 7.

The Pacers have been a must-fade recently following any win as they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a victory. It is also worth noting that they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points. Bet the Nets.

3* NBA Public Massacre on Kings +5
The Spurs are primed for a letdown after last night's thrilling win over the Lakers, and they will have their hands full with this Kings team, which is playing its best ball of the season.

The Kings have quietly covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games. They have wins over the Blazers (just beat the Spurs), Hornets (beat the Spurs twice this season) and the Lakers in the last two weeks. The Kings even took Boston down to the wire to cover the spread in their last game. This just goes to show you that Sac has competed with some of the top teams in the league recently.

I just don't think this veteran Spurs team will have enough left tonight against a youthful Kings team that is playing well. The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Also, the home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Celtics -6
Boston is at home (where it is 22-3 this season), rested (hasn't played since Tuesday) and out for revenge (lost by 2 at Dallas in season's first meeting). In other words, this is an especially good spot to back the Celtics.

The Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Mavericks are also just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series.

The Celtics are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record, 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on 2 days' rest and 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 games following an ATS loss.

Dallas has won 6 games in a row and is coming off a blowout over the Knicks Wednesday and it is getting 6 points? It's clear odds makers want money to roll in on Dallas, but we won't bite. Expect the Celtics' league-leading defense to lead them to a double-digit win tonight.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Lakers -3
The Lakers will want this game more tonight. They have already lost to title contenders like Miami, Boston, Dallas and these Spurs. They're looking for a signature win to serve as a stepping stone to carry them through the second half of the season. I really like their chances of pulling through this evening.

The Lakers have won 5 of their last 7 at home against the Spurs in the regular season (7 of L8 overall including playoffs), so history is on our side here. Plus, they will be motivated by their earlier season loss at San Antonio, and they will be looking to end their home stand on a winning note before hitting the road for 7 games.

The Spurs are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.

Kobe Bryant has been downplaying all the media remarks about the Lakers having taken a step back. Trust me, losing to the aforementioned teams is burning him up inside. I fully expect him to respond in a big way. Lakers get the win and cover tonight. Lay the points.

5* NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Nuggets -8
Off back-to-back embarrassing losses on the road, the Nuggets return home with plenty of motivation to take down a Blazers team they have owned in Denver. The Nuggets are 20-5 at home this season, and they have taken the last five against the Blazers at the Pepsi Center by an average of 14.2 points. Denver even won the season's first home meeting 95-77 with Carmelo Anthony on the sidelines.

Anthony will be on the floor tonight, and he is playing well. Denver is 11-0 all-time at home in this series when Anthony scores at least 20 points.

The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Also, the Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Denver.

In addition, Denver is 19-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 112.6 to 99.0. The Nuggets are also 15-4 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 112.1 to 101.1.

After such an emotionally and physically draining win over the top team in the NBA (Spurs) last night, the Blazers won't have enough left in the Mile High City this evening. Lay the points.

4* NBA *Marquee Matchup* on Thunder -7
The Thunder want this one badly. As if Sunday's heartbreaking loss to Miami doesn't provide enough motivation, last week's last second loss at New Orleans will certainly do the trick. The fact that OKC led by 15 points in the first half in that game will really have its blood boiling tonight.

The Thunder have been terrific in revenge spots. In fact, they are on a 37-18 ATS run when out to avenge a road loss. They have also been terrific following home defeats, going 15-5 ATS off a home loss over the last 2 seasons.

The Hornets are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Plus, this will be their 4th game in 5 days and they will be without leading rebounder Emeka Okafor. Lay the points with the Thunder tonight.

3* NBA SMASH on Kings +7
I fully expect the veteran Celtics to coast tonight in the final game of their road trip. They came out West to beat the Lakers. After accomplishing that feat, not much emphasis will be put on tonight's contest. Plus, Boston hasn't won back-to-back road games since Dec. 11 and Dec. 15. Since then, they are just 4-5 away from home.

The Kings, meanwhile, are playing their best ball of the season. They have won back-to-back games and 3 of their last 4 against playoff teams. Sac has quietly covered the number in 9 of its last 13 games.

It has not been a good idea to back Boston following a double-digit road win. That's because the C's are just 4-17 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. They are actually losing by an average score of 96.6 to 96.9 in this situation.

Plus, Sac was embarrassed at Boston earlier this month. That loss is significant because the Kings are 12-4 ATS when avenging a same season loss this season. They are actually winning these games by an average score of 98.8 to 98.6. The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Kings.

3* NBA *Marquee Matchup* on Trail Blazers +6
Motivated by back-to-back defeats at home and with 4 full days to rest and prepare, expect the Blazers to give the Spurs all they want and more tonight.

Some of the best teams in the NBA have struggled in the Rose Garden, and the Spurs are definitely one of those teams. In fact, the Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Portland and they have lost the last 4 SU.

Going to the numbers we find that home teams off a home loss, if they are extremely well rested team (playing 3 or less games in 10 days), are an impressive 50-18 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, Portland is a ridiculous 70-46 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less since 1996.

Revenge isn't always a good angle, but it often is if the team looking for revenge was embarrassed. You could say Portland was embarrassed by San Antonio when it was held to just 78 points in a 17-point loss earlier this season. With this is mind, it is certainly worth noting that Portland is 15-5 ATS over the last 3 seasons when avenging a loss in which it was held to less than 85 points. It is winning by an average score of 97.0 to 93.2 in this situation. Take the points.

3* Monday Night NBA SMASH on Wizards +10
The Wizards are not getting the respect they deserve from odds makers tonight because of their 0-23 road record. This provides us with solid value in backing them.

As a 10-point road dog Friday, Washington took the OKC Thunder to double-OT. That recent performance shows the Wiz are capable of taking Dallas down to the wire.

The Wiz have really been undervalued lately against good teams. As a result, they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Mavericks, meanwhile, are just 7-24-2 ATS in their last 33 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

The Mavs have been constantly overvalued at home the last couple seasons. In fact, they are 20-42-3 ATS in their last 65 home games, 18-38-3 ATS in their last 59 games as a home favorite and 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the points.

3* NBA *Marquee Matchup* on Celtics +3
This game means more to Boston, which lost its last meeting with the Lakers at the Staples Center in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The Celtics did not have the services of Kendrick Perkins in that game. He will be on the floor Sunday afternoon, and I expect him to make his presence felt, especially on the defensive end.

Both teams are coming off embarrassing defeats, but it has been Boston that has really responded following such losses. Boston is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 road games following an embarrassing road loss in which it was held to less than 80 points. The Lakers, meanwhile, are just 18-42 ATS in home games after a loss by 6 points or less under coach Jackson.

The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Boston is also 7-3 ATS in its last 10 meetings on the road in this series. Take the Celtics.

3* Friday Night NBA SMASH (ESPN) on Suns +4.5
This veteran Celtics team, which could be without Paul Pierce tonight, has struggled recently in the second game of back-to-backs. In fact, Boston is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games when playing without any rest. It is also worth noting that the Celtics have dropped four of their last seven on the road. In addition, Boston is 4-16 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, only winning by an average score of 97.9 to 97.3 in this situation.

Off 3 straight defeats, Phoenix couldn't be hungrier. It is worth noting that the Suns' uptempo style has posed problems for the Celtics. Phoenix swept the season series a year ago. The Suns are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.

Boston has a date with the Lakers Sunday, and it can't help but look ahead to that game. After all, the Lakers beat them in the Finals last season. With Boston playing without a day of rest and looking ahead to L.A., I expect the hungry Suns to sneak up on the C's tonight.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors -4.5
At 13-9, the Warriors have been playing good ball at home all season. I especially expect a strong performance out of them on their home floor tonight following back-to-back home defeats.

This is a very tough spot for Charlotte, which is playing its 3rd road game in 4 days. The Bobcats are just 7-14 on the road this season. They are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

Golden State is an impressive 24-9 ATS over the last 2 seasons versus teams that are outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game. The Warriors are defeating these teams by an average of 5.9 points. The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or fewer and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games. Lay the points with this motivated Golden State squad against the road weary Bobcats.

3* Eastern Conference *Marquee Matchup* on Hawks -6.5
This is a letdown spot for the Knicks after such an emotional win over the Heat last night. Plus, New York has really struggled away from Madison Square Garden, dropping 8 of its last 10.

Off a loss to lowly Milwaukee, the Hawks will be hungry. Plus, they will be out to erase the haunting memory of their last home game - a 100-59 loss to New Orleans.

The Knicks used a lot of energy in their comeback win over the Heat, especially on the defensive end. They won't have the legs to run with this fresh and hungry Hawks team tonight. The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Eastern Conference. Lay the points.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Rockets +6.5
Dirk Nowitzki is back in the lineup, but his game isn't back to where it was before the injury. Plus, the Mavs are still missing Caron Butler. The Mavs have lost 11 of their last 15 ATS and they will be in for a challenge tonight against a Houston team that is playing well. The Rockets have quietly won 5 of their last 7 SU and ATS.

Dallas has been overvalued the most against teams like Houston with winning percentages between 40% and 49%. In fact, Dallas is 0-8 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons. It is only defeating these squads by 3.0 points on average.

The Mavericks are 19-41-3 ATS in their last 63 home games and 12-26-2 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Suns -6
The Bobcats won the season's first meeting 123-105, but Steve Nash didn't play in that game. Nash will be in the lineup tonight and that's good news for Suns fans. After all, he has scored at least 22 points while helping Phoenix win 4 of its last 5 at home in this series.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points, off a road loss by 10 points or more, are an impressive 90-53 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 7.4 points.

The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bobcats are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing without a day of rest. Lay the points.

3* Tuesday Night NBA SMASH on Mavericks -6
The Clippers are unproven on the road, where they are just 3-13 this season and losing by an average of 7.8 points. With Eric Gordon likely to sit this one out, their task becomes even more difficult tonight.

The Clippers defeated Golden State 113-109 in their last game to set up a rare investment opportunity. Over the last 3 seasons, L.A. is 0-10 ATS in road games after a home game where both it and its opponent scored 100 points or more. It is losing by an average score of 113.3 to 96.4 in this situation. Also, the Clippers are 4-18 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons, losing to these foes by an average score of 109.0 to 92.7.

Dallas won at L.A. by 16 points earlier this season. The Mavs have won 7 in a row against the Clippers, and the last 4 wins have all come by 9 points or more.

Back close to full strength, Dallas defeated the Lakers by 9 in its last home game. It's ready to go on a little run in an attempt to make up some ground on San Antonio. Lay the points.

3* NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors +6
The Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season. As a result, they have quietly covered the spread in 12 of their last 16 games. They have been performing especially well at home, where they have won 4 straight and 7 of the 8. The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.

Golden State is averaging 107.9 points at home this season - second-most in the NBA. This spells trouble for a Spurs team that has lost its last 3 when allowing 100 points or more.

The Warriors are an impressive 51-24-2 ATS in their last 77 games as a home underdog and 35-13-3 ATS in their last 51 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

San Antonio has had Golden State's number, but that's all the more reason to go against the Spurs laying considerable points on the road. The Warriors will be out for revenge tonight and should keep this one within the number. Take the points.

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Magic -3
The Magic are playing some of the best basketball in the entire NBA right now. They will be the much fresher team tonight, following a breezer with the Raptors, since Houston endured a hard-fought defeat at the hands of the Grizzlies.

It has been evident in recent head-to-heads that Houston doesn't match up well with the Magic. In fact, the Magic have won the last 3 meetings by 15, 18 and 15 points. Orlando just has too much size, and it should really be able to take advantage with Yao Ming and Brad Miller out.

We are now in the second half of the schedule and this is where the Magic have really taken care of business. In fact, they are 13-3 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, crushing these teams by an average score of 109.6 to 92.5. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -3.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and a pair of losses to Houston already this season, the Grizzlies will mean business when they take the floor tonight.

The Grizzlies have quietly been one of the strongest investments in the league, going 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a defeat. Revenge has also been a strong angle to play in regards to Memphis. Under coach Hollins, the Grizz are 54-36 ATS in revenge games.

The Rockets have won 3 in a row, but all 3 of those wins came against the East. Houston is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 vs. the Western Conference while Memphis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 vs. the West. Lay the points.

3* NBA *Marquee Matchup* on Jazz +6
Following back-to-back losses to 2 of those worst teams in the East, the Utah Jazz will be extremely hungry when they take on the Celtics tonight.

Boston has won 4 in a row, but each of its last 3 wins have come by 5 or fewer points. All 3 of those games were played at home, where the Celtics are 20-3 this season. Boston, however, is just 8-13-2 ATS in those games. Recently, the Celtics are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Jazz, meanwhile, are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog period.

Utah has won 5 of the last 8 meetings and is 6-2 ATS in those games. Take the Jazz and the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Bulls -3
The Mavs brought their 6-game losing streak to an end last night with a win over the Lakers, but that doesn't mean they are going to go on a winning spree all of a sudden. This is a tough spot for them playing a back-to-back on the road after such an emotionally and physically draining win. It's especially a tough spot for Dirk Nowitzki, whose level of conditioning has diminished due to his extended time off. The Bulls have had a day to rest and they will be very hungry after suffering just their 4th home loss of the season Tuesday.

Chicago is a better team than it was when it won at Dallas by 5 points earlier this season. Even without Noah, and with Boozer doubtful, the Bulls have enough depth to get the job done tonight.

Dallas hasn't been playing well defensively and that will be its downfall tonight. Consider that Dallas is 1-9 ATS after 3 straight games allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher over the last 2 seasons. It is losing these contests by 6.8 points on average.

The Bulls are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less and 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Bet the Bulls.

5* NBA Game of the Month on Timberwolves +7
The Clippers are playing their best basketball of the season, having won 5 of their last 6 games. But this is precisely the time to go against them as odds makers have purposely overreacted to their recent success to trap the public. Keep in mind that the Clippers haven't been favored by more than 5 points all season.

Minnesota won the season's first meeting at home, but didn't show well in a 113-90 loss in LA a month ago. I'll gladly take the Wolves in this revenge spot, considering road underdogs revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, provided they have won 25% or less of their games on the season, are an impressive 61-29 ATS the last 5 seasons.

The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road meetings in this series.

The Clippers are getting way too much respect for their short body of work tonight. Take the points as Minnesota takes the Clipps right down to the wire.

3* NBA SMASH on Bucks -6.5
Motivated by 3 straight defeats, the Bucks will take out their frustrations of the Wizards tonight. Washington is 0-19 SU and 5-14 ATS on the road this season where it is losing by 14.4 points this season. Offensively, the Wiz are only averaging 94.4 ppg away from home. They'll have a difficult time finding the bottom of the net against a Milwaukee team holding its opponents to 90.9 ppg at home this season.

Washington is even 1-8 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season, losing to these teams by an average 12.4 points. Washington is also just 3-17 ATS off an upset win over the last 2 seasons, losing in this situation by an average of 11.7 points.

Under Skiles, the Bucks are 13-3 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive road losses, bouncing back to win by an average of 7.5 points. Lay the points with Milwaukee tonight.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Bobcats/Bulls UNDER 185
These teams combined for 187 points when they met in Charlotte last Wednesday. The Bulls allowed 96 points in a losing effort but we can expect a much better defensive performance on their home floor tonight. Chicago is only allowing 91.0 ppg at home this season and Charlotte is only scoring 90.4 ppg on the road.

One thing the Bulls have done in revenge games is picked up their defensive intensity. In fact, Chicago is 11-1 Under this season when revenging a road loss to an opponents. The Bulls have held the opposition to just 87.5 points on average in this situation. We have only seen a total of 180.4 points scored on average in these games.

It is also worth noting that the Under is 15-4-2 in the Bobcats' last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, including 7-1-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Bet the Under.

3* NBA SMASH on Pistons +4.5
Dallas has lost 5 in a row and 8 of 10 SU and ATS. Dirk Nowitzki is back but still isn't at 100 percent. It's going to take a few games for him to get back to where he was prior to the injury.

The Pistons have won back-to-back games, and they will be lacking no confidence on their home floor against these Mavs, a team these have lost to by only 4 points on average the last 4 meetings.

The Pistons have been extremely profitable as a small pup. In fact, they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or less. Take the points.

3* NBA Sunday Night SMASH (ESPN) on Spurs -7
Denver has put together 3 straight impressive offensive displays at home, but I fully expect San Antonio to flex its muscles tonight. The Nuggets have been a completely different team on the road, where they are just 5-12 this season. They have double-digit losses to the Clippers and Kings in their last 2 road contests.

The Spurs are 21-2 at home, where they are winning by an average of 11.1 ppg. San Antonio is also 9-1 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season, defeating these foes by 9.5 points on average.

The Nuggets are 6-13-3 ATS in their last 22 games as a road underdog, 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 5-16-5 ATS in their last 26 games following a win of more than 10 points, 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing without a day of rest and 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games. Lay the points with the Spurs.

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Bobcats -3
After a hard-fought overtime win in Houston last night, the Hornets won't have enough left to get past the Bobcats on the road this evening.

Charlotte is playing its best ball of the season, having covered the spread in 5 straight games as a result. It has won 3 straight at home, including an impressive win over Chicago in its last home game. The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less points and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less.

Also, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
The Bobcats suffered a 16-point loss at New Orleans last month. That defeat will provide added motivation tonight. Lay the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors -3.5
This is a big letdown spot for the Clippers after an upset win over the Miami Heat in their last game. In addition, this is a big bounce back spot for Golden State off back-to-back defeats. One of those defeats was a double-digit loss to the Clippers, which ensures us the Warriors will be out for revenge this evening.

There are also plenty of numbers to support this play in addition to these 3 strong situational factors (letdown, bounce back, revenge). The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. The Warriors are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings at Golden State.

We also have another very special trend in our favor. Consider that LAC is 0-8 ATS in road games following a home game in which both it and its opponents topped the century mark over the last 3 seasons. The Clippers are losing by an average score of 112.9 to 95.0 in this spot. Lay the points.

3* NBA *Top Dog* on Bobcats +9
This game is all about revenge for a Bobcats team that has lost its last four to the Celtics by 18 or more points. An embarrassing 93-62 home loss to Boston last month will really fuel Charlotte's fire tonight.

Fortunately for us, this is not the same Bobcats team that was crushed by Boston a month ago. That was an anemic offensive team coached by Larry Brown. This team is 6-2 under interim coach Paul Silas and enters tonight contest having won 4 in a row.

In addition, the Bobcats catch a break with Kevin Garnett not expected to return until Monday's meeting with Orlando, a game the Celtics will no doubt be looking ahead to.

The Celtics are a lousy 13-28-1 ATS in their last 42 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. They are just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. win of more than 10 points. The Bobcats have covered the spread in 4 straight, and they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings at Boston. Take the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Magic pk
Motivated by last night's loss at New Orleans, I expect the Magic to be ready to go tonight. Plus, Orlando has the big edge on defense. The Magic are only allowing 93.3 ppg on 43.9% shooting. The Thunder, meanwhile, are giving up 101.5 ppg on 46.8% shooting. The OKC "D" was especially bad last night, allowing a season-high 70 points in the paint. They won't get away with such poor interior defense against Dwight Howard and company this evening.

The Magic have won 9 of 10 overall and 8 of their last 9 against the Thunder. The Magic have been able to hold Durant to just 17.6 points in his career - his fewest versus any opponent. I'm taking the superior defensive team in a bounce back spot. Bet Orlando.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +1
The Mavs have struggled without Dirk Nowitzki and Caron Butler in the lineup, but I like their chances in Indianapolis tonight. Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and with 3 full days to rest and prepare, expect Dallas to bring its "A" game against a Pacers squad that just played last night.

The Mavs have been deadly recently when getting plenty of time off. In fact, they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 3 or more days rest. The Mavs have also been deadly against the Pacers, winning 5 straight and 9 of the last 10 in the series. How have the Pacers been when playing back-to-back you ask? They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without rest.

The Mavericks are an impressive 50-24-1 ATS in their last 75 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points while the Pacers 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. Take Dallas.

3* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +5
The Pacers will be extremely motivated tonight. Not only are they looking to snap a 3-game skid, but they are out to avenge an embarrassing 101-75 loss at Philly earlier this season.

Over the long haul, Indy has been extremely profitable in these spots. In fact, it is an impressive 74-42 ATS in its last 116 games when revenging a loss where it scored less than 85 points. It is winning by an average score of 93.1 to 91.0 in this situation.

Prior to their earlier loss at Philly, the Pacers had won 3 straight in the series. Plus, Indy has dominated this matchup in terms of the point spread. The Pacers are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Philadelphia. Also, the underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Andre Iguodala could return for Philly tonight, but that could actually work against the 76ers. They've built a little chemistry with him out of the lineup. His return could throw things off offensively for a game or two. With or without Iguodala in the lineup, I like the Pacers to keep this one within the number.

3* Monday Night NBA SMASH on Bobcats +3
The Bobcats are 4-2 while playing a more uptempo style under Paul Silas. Look for them to continue their winning ways against a Memphis team they have defeated 3 straight times at home.

The Bobcats will especially be motivated tonight as they remember an embarrassing 33-point loss at Memphis on Dec. 15 well. The fact that Charlotte enters with momentum is also a plus, considering it is 20-8 ATS in home games off a home win over the last 3 seasons, winning by 8.3 points on average in this situation.

Memphis is just 6-14 on the road this season and it is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 road games as a favorite. Plus, Charlotte is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the points.

3* Sunday Night NBA SMASH on Lakers -6.5
Off a highly emotional win for Amare Stoudemire against his former team, I don't expect the big fella to be mentally ready to play at the level he needs to for his team to be successful tonight. Besides, Stoudemire has rarely brought his "A" game at Staples Center.

In 11 career regular season road games against the Lakers, Stoudemire has averaged just 15.1 points - easily his lowest average away from home. LA's length and athletic ability on the interior has certainly bothered Stoudemire.

Before beating Phoenix, the Knicks had lost on the road to Cleveland, Miami and Orlando by at least 7 points. Plus, the Lakers have won 3 in a row against NY by 9 or more points. Expect the Lakers to rise to the occasion again tonight.

4* Saturday Night NBA Blowout on Hawks -7
Tough spot for the Pacers playing back-to-back following a tough loss to the Spurs. What makes this spot even tougher is the fact that Atlanta is rested and has defeated the Pacers by double digits in each of the last five meetings.

Atlanta is rolling, coming off an impressive win at Utah. In fact, Atlanta is 8-0 ATS in home games off an upset win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 104 to 91.5 in this situation.

Revenge is not a likely scenario for the Pacers. Consider that plays against road underdogs looking to revenge a loss in which they were held to less than 85 points, against an opponent off 3 or more consecutive road wins, are 29-6 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this system are losing by 14.6 points on average. It is also worth noting that this system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

3* NBA on ESPN SMASH on Rockets +9.5
Motivated by 3 straight defeats, expect the Rockets to keep this one within the number tonight.

Because Houston has failed to cover the number in six straight games (according to the closing line), it is showing good value here. In fact, Houston is an impressive 20-4 ATS in its last 24 road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games. Houston is also an impressive 84-39 ATS in its last 123 road games after 2 or more consecutive losses.

The Rockets are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series and 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Orlando. Take the points.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Raptors +9.5
Toronto fell 93-79 to Boston Sunday. Motivated by that loss, I fully expect the Raptors to take the C's down to the wire tonight.

The Celtics have been a poor investment at home. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 12-27-1 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Getting a little more specific, Boston is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points.

In addition, the road team is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Toronto already has an upset win over Boston this season. It has also played the Celtics to a 9-point game at the Garden this season. I'm expecting an even better effort at the Garden this time around. Take the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Thunder -1.5
Nowitzki is expected to miss another game tonight, but I like the Thunder regardless in this spot. Off back-to-back losses, and looking to avenge back-to-back losses to Dallas, expect Kevin Durant and company to rise to the occasion tonight.

The Mavericks are 17-39-3 ATS in their last 59 home games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. They are also 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 Thursday games.

The Thunder are one of the most resilient teams in the league. As a result, they are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 games following a S.U. loss. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, 37-18 ATS in their last 55 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.

The Thunder are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series and 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Dallas. Take OKC.

4* NBA Underdog Shocker on Clippers +4
Off back-to-back defeats, expect a motivated Clippers team to be ready to pull off the upset tonight. The Clippers have played the Nuggets tough at Denver two times already this season, losing by 7 and 5 points to cover the number each time. Now, I expect them to get the job done against a Nuggets squad that is just 5-10 on the road.

The Nuggets have been a terrible investment in the chalk. In fact, they are 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite. They are also 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Denver is also just 5-19-2 ATS in its last 26 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.

Lastly, plays on any team off 2 or more consecutive home losses, extremely well rested team playing only its 2nd game in 7 days, are 62-37 ATS since 1996. Take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Rockets -6
The Rockets have begun the New Year with back-to-back losses on the road. One of those losses was an embarrassing 100-85 loss at Portland. With a day to rest, and back at home, I expect Houston to have its revenge tonight.

It will be extremely difficult for Portland to recover from last night's loss at Dallas. Expect the Blazers to be deflated after blowing a five-point 4th quarter lead. Plus, Portland has had no success in Houston. In fact, it has averaged just 86.4 points while losing 12 of its last 13 there. Portland has struggled on the road in general, losing 6 of its last 7 and 10 of its last 12 away from home. Houston, meanwhile, has won 9 of its last 10 at home.

The Rockets are 6-0-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Lay the points.

4* Never Lost NBA *BEST BET* on Lakers -12
Expect the Lakers to show up in a big way tonight after getting brutally embarrassed by Memphis. It will certainly be to their benefit that Detroit used a lot of energy in a loss to Utah last night. With tired legs, it will be tough for the Pistons to defend this motivated Lakers team.

The Lakers haven't had any trouble against the Pistons. In fact, they have won each of the last 4 meetings by at least 12 points, including a 13-point win at Detroit earlier this season. Plus, prior to Monday's matchup with Utah, Detroit had dropped their seven games against opponents currently above .500 by an average of 14.3 points.

Here's the clincher: Under coach Kuester, Detroit is 0-10 ATS in road games after having lost 4 of its last 5 games. The Pistons are losing by an average of 17.3 points in this situation.

The Lakers are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points and the Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. Lay the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Rockets +7.5
Here's what head coach Rick Adelman had to say about yesterday's 100-85 loss at Portland: "Just a poor effort. That is as bad as we have played all year. We were a step behind all night." Teams usually respond after such a poor showing, and Houston has been one of the best in bounce back spots.

The Rockets are 21-9 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win by an average score of 103.7 to 96.3. Denver, meanwhile, which is coming off a double-digit win over Sacramento, is 11-24 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It is only winning in this situation by an average score of 106.8 to 104.6. It is also worth noting that Denver is 5-17-4 ATS in its last 26 games following a win of more than 10 points and the Rockets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss period.

Denver is 14-3 at home this season but only 6-10-1 ATS in those games. The Nuggets are only 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite. The underdog has covered the number in 5 of the last 6 meetings. Take the points tonight.

3* NBA New Year's Eve Blowout on Suns -5.5
Big letdown spot for Detroit following an upset win over Boston. Plus, very motivated spot for Phoenix as it looks to bring a 4-game skid to an end.

Detroit has had all kinds of troubles against the Suns in recent years. In fact it has lost 4 in a row SU and ATS in the series by no fewer than 10 points. Its 2 losses at Phoenix during this span have come by 18 and 26 points respectively. Also, we can't forget that Detroit is just 3-13 away from home this season, where it is losing by 7.7 ppg.

The Suns have spent a lot of time focusing on defense following one of their worst defensive performances of the season last time out. I fully expect them to put forth a much better effort on the defensive end tonight and the numbers certainly support this opinion. Consider that Phoenix is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 home games after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game. It is winning by 14.8 points on average in this situation. Lay the points.

4* NBA on TNT Total of the Month on Knicks/Magic UNDER 213
New York is 0-2 against Boston and 0-2 against Miami. Looking for a signature win against an Eastern Conference powerhouse, the Knicks know they must bring the "D" tonight.

We can normally count on strong defensive performances from the Magic, which are only allowing 91.1 ppg at home this season. It is worth noting that the Under is 15-5-1 in the Magic's last 21 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It is also worth noting that the Under is 3-0-1 in the Knicks' last 4 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

Getting a little more specific, we find that Orlando is 12-3 Under as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since the beginning of last season. We are only seeing 185.2 total points scored in these games.

There's sure to be playoff intensity tonight, and I expect it to result in the Under.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +6.5
This is an extremely motivated spot for the Pistons, who were brutally embarrassed by Boston at home last month. In that game, Kevin Garnett reportedly called Charlie Villanueva a "cancer patient." Villanueva and the Pistons have not taken kindly to those words, and I expect them to do something about it tonight.

The Celtics are coming off a double-digit win last night, and odds makers tend to overvalue teams following blowout victories. In fact, Boston is just 4-14 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more since the beginning of last season, only winning by 1.1 points on average in this situation.

The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Pound the Pistons.

3* NBA *Marquee Matchup* on Lakers +3.5
After back-to-back embarrassing losses to Milwaukee and Miami, expect the Lakers to show up in a big way at San Antonio tonight.

The Lakers have had no problem winning on the road, where they have been victorious in 5 straight. They also haven't had much problem covering the spread against San Antonio. The Lakers are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio.

The Lakers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss of more than 10 points. In addition, plays on any team off an upset loss by 15 points or more, playing with 2 days rest, are 34-12 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, plays on road teams, explosive offensive team scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 76-41 ATS the last 5 seasons.

Expect the Lakers to rise to show everyone they are still a force to be reckoned with tonight.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Mavs/Thunder UNDER 203.5
The fact that Dallas won the season's first meeting at OKC plays right into our hands here. Consider that plays Under on all teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite, provided that team has won 60-75% or more of its games on the season, are 87-43 the last 5 seasons (66.9%). This system is already 2-0 this season.

The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in Oklahoma City. Odds makers have set the bar too high tonight. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Christmas Day *BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers -2
The Lakers haven't played since a Dec. 21 embarrassing loss to the Bucks, which can't be sitting well. They'll be ready to go at home on Christmas day to show the Heat they are still the team to beat.

The Lakers are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Meanwhile, the Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.

This is a game where the Heat will really miss a guy like Udonis Haslem alongside Chris Bosh. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard and Erick Dampier just don't have the athleticism to match up well with the LA bigs.

Miami has already lost to Dallas twice and Boston twice, so it has certainly struggled with elite teams. I'm laying the points with the Lakers.

5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Magic -2
Orlando has been struggling, but it catches the Spurs in a great spot tonight. The Spurs used a lot of energy in last night's comeback win over Denver. They may be able to hang around for a while, but I expect this much fresher Orlando team to pull away in the second half.

The Spurs haven't had much luck in Orlando lately, losing their last 2 visits by 12 and 26 points respectively.

The Spurs were lucky to win the season's first meeting. They had to rally in the fourth to beat the Magic last month. Fortunately, Orlando is one of the best in the biz when out for revenge. In fact, it is 43-26 ATS in its last 69 games revenging a same season loss, winning by an average score of 101.1 to 94.3 in this situation. Lay the points.

3* 100% Perfect NBA SMASH on 76ers +9.5
As if last night's embarrassing loss to Chicago isn't enough motivation, a 1-point loss to Boston earlier this month will add extra fuel the fire.

The 76ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall. They are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing without rest.

Boston is 4-13 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons, only winning these games by 6.2 points on average. Philly is 13-4 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, only losing by 1.7 points on average in these games. With Rajon Rondo out of the lineup tonight, it only helps Philly's chances. Bet the 76ers.

3* NBA SMASH on Bobcats +6.5
After getting absolutely destroyed last night, the Bobcats will show up in a big way at home. Oklahoma City is a talented team, but it has struggled in the road chalk this season, largely because of its defense. The Thunder are allowing 101.5 ppg on the road. Compare that to the 96.2 ppg the Bobcats are allowing at home. As a result the Thunder are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Charlotte is also 18-6 ATS after being held to 80 points or less over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 94.1 to 91.8 in this spot. Bet the Bobcats.

3* NBA *Marquee Matchup* on Heat -6.5
Miami's last loss was an 11-point defeat to these Dallas Mavericks. That loss triggered a players only meeting and the Heat have been rolling ever since. They have won 12 in a row and will be out for revenge tonight.

The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Western Conference. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Mavericks are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. the Eastern Conference and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest.

The Heat made a statement with a blowout win at Madison Square Friday, and they'll be looking to make an even bigger statement tonight. Lay the points.

3* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +4.5
The Pistons bit the dust hard after their big win over Atlanta. I expect the Hornets to follow suit following their big win over Utah.

The Hornets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. In addition, the Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 4.5 or less.

We also can't ignore the fact that New Orleans is 0-8 ATS in road games after 5 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons, losing in this situation by an average score of 98.1 to 88.7. New Orleans is 0-8 ATS after allowing 80 points or less over the last 3 seasons as well, losing by an average score of 101.4 to 97.9 in this spot. With a 30-0 ATS angle in our favor, I like our chances taking the Pistons and the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Hornets +1.5
Chris Paul is sick and tired of hearing about how Deron Williams has his number. I fully expect him to do something about it at home tonight.

I'll gladly get behind the Hornets at home, where they are 10-3 this season, in this highly motivated spot. Utah won the first meeting at its place and New Orleans will be out for revenge here tonight.

The fact that odds makers have set such a low total says a lot about what they expect to happen. It tells us that they expect New Orleans, which is holding foes to 91.5 ppg at home, to have success slowing down the Jazz. A lower scoring game definitely favors the Hornets here. In fact, under coach Sloan, Utah is just 40-66 ATS in road games when the total is between 185 and 189.5 points. It is losing these games by an average score of 96.0 to 92.4.

It is also worth noting that the Jazz are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Take the Hornets.

3* 100% Perfect NBA *Power Play* on Pacers -8.5
Off 3 straight losses to good playoff teams, I expect the Pacers to take out their frustrations on the lowly Cavs. Cleveland has lost 9 in a row with 7 of those defeats coming by double-digits. It will have a hard time bouncing back tonight after investing so much, emotionally and physically, into Wednesday's rematch with Miami.

The Pacers have had Cleveland's number, defeating the Cavs twice already this season by 14 and 11 points respectively. "I'm not very happy with the way we competed, in all candor," coach Jim O'Brien said. "You've got to bring a certain ethic to the game and frankly, we haven't." Those were O'Brien's public comments. You can only imagine the way he called out his team behind closed doors. They'll be ready to bounce back.

The Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Pacers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Pacers are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. We'll take this 32-0 ATS angle to the bank.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Spurs -1
Denver has won 10 in a row at home, but it has had a number of close calls - a 2-point win over the Knicks (11/16), a 1-point win over Chicago (11/26) and a 1-point win over Memphis (12/5). While Denver has found a way to win all but 1 home game this season, it is up against a different animal tonight.

The Spurs are 8-1 on the road, and they are very comfortable playing in the Pepsi Center. They won by 19 points in both games at Denver last season. The Spurs held Denver below 40% shooting in each of those games, and its defense will be the difference again tonight.

The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Denver. Also, the road team is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Spurs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or less points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Lastly, we can't fail to mention that Chauncey Billups will miss tonight's game with a wrist injury. His veteran leadership will be missed against this savvy, veteran Spurs team. Take San Antonio.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Lakers -4
The Lakers just played last night, but none of the starting 5 played big minutes in an easy win over Washington. With fresh legs, and motivated by a home loss to Indiana last month, I expect LA to send a message to the Pacers tonight.

Plays on any team revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite of 7 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%), are 45-19 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by 8.4 points on average.

The Pacers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 4.5 or less period. The favorite is also 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Look for LA to have its revenge.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats -4.5
Expect a major response from the Bobcats at home tonight after such an embarrassing loss to Boston their last time out. The Bobcats have already defeated the Raptors by 5 points in Toronto this season, and they definitely have the edge in this highly motivated spot.

The Bobcats have been money in the small chalk, going 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after being held to less than 75 points in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a losing road record. It is also important to note that Charlotte is a perfect 8-0 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 99.8 to 90.5 in this situation.

The Bobcats have won 4 of the last 6 in this series by 5 or more points with 3 of those wins coming by at least 13 points. The Raptors are just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Lay the points with the Bobcats.

3* Monday Night NBA SMASH on Bucks +7.5
Odds makers have overvalued the Mavs tonight. Having won 12 in a row, the public is naturally all over Dallas, so the books have made sure to set a line with which they can take advantage.

The Bucks are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings in this series and the underdog is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Milwaukee matches up very well with Dallas and played the Mavs to 2 and 1-point games respectively last season as a result. We also can't ignore the fact that Milwaukee is one of the premier defensive teams in the NBA, yielding just 92.9 ppg.

It hurt the Bucks badly when Andrew Bogut missed 5 games, but he's back and has helped them win 3 of their last 4. Dallas is 17-35 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons, including 9-20 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. The Mavs are also just 4-18 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

3* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4
The Hawks have played 12 home games this season, and they are just 7-5 SU and 2-10 ATS in those games. Going back to last season, the Hawks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games. With this in mind, the improved Pacers are showing excellent value catching points.

Indiana has proven that it can go on the road and win. It has won at Miami against LeBron James and company and at L.A. against Kobe Bryant and company. This Hawks team is minus its best player - Joe Johnson.

Both teams are playing back-to-back, but the edge has to go to Indy in this situation considering it is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing without rest. Plus, there is a lot of NBA betting action on Saturday. Hence, books like to inflate lines on teams perceived to be good. As a result, the Pacers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games while the Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games. Motivated by a home loss to the Hawks last month, look for the Pacers to have their revenge tonight.

5* NBA Total of the Month on Blazers/Suns OVER 204.5
With the Suns out to avenge Tuesday's loss to Portland, and with the Blazers having just played last night, I love our chances with the Over. We saw 205 total points scored in Tuesday's matchup, and Blazers starting point guard Andre Miller didn't play in that game. He has thrived when playing at Phoenix, scoring 22.8 points and 8.0 assists in his last five visits.

Portland is a good defensive team, but it won't be able to bring the same energy to the defensive end tonight after just playing a game last night. In fact, the Over is 5-2 in the Trail Blazers' last 7 games playing on 0 days rest and 9-2 in their last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The Over is 14-3 in the Suns' last 17 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Phoenix is also a perfect 8-0 Over after playing a home game this season. We are seeing 230.4 totals points on average in this situation. Bet the Over.

3* Friday Night NBA Blowout on Spurs -8
This is an extremely difficult matchup for the Hawks, going up against the best team in the league without their best player (Joe Johnson).

Atlanta has had no luck in San Antonio, going 1-12 straight up and 2-11 ATS in the last 13 visits. It hasn't had much luck against the West period, going 0-5 ATS in its last 5 vs. the Western Conference.

Historical data points to the Spurs as well. In fact, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, against an opponent off a home win in which it scored 110 or more points, are 24-4 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting in to this system have won by 11.4 points on average.

It is also worth noting that the Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Spurs.

3* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +10.5
The Nets may be 2-10 on the road, but they are only losing those games by 6.6 points on average. Dallas is 9-3 at home, but it is only winning those games by 4.7 points on average. With this in mind, the Nets are showing excellent value tonight.

As if back-to-back blowout losses aren't enough to fuel the fire, coach Avery Johnson and point guard Devin Harris will be looking for payback against their former team. Johnson knows Dallas' personnel inside and out, so I expect a much better defensive effort from the Nets this evening.

Dallas is just 3-18 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons, only winning by 3.2 points on average in these games. Dallas is also a poor 1-11 ATS in home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 97.8 to 97.2 in these spots. Also, NJ is an impressive 14-4 ATS as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons, only losing these games by 5.5 points on average. Take the points.

3* Wednesday Night NBA SMASH on Heat +1
The Heat finally have it going and this game is all about payback. Last month, Miami blew a big lead at home to Utah and ended up losing in overtime. Trust me, LeBron James and company have not forgotten.

In the season's first meeting, the Heat led by as many as 19 points as Utah had no answer for James and Dwayne Wade. Expect the same tonight. Utah is still a formidable team, but it is going to miss the star power of Carlos Boozer in big games like this. As you might recall, the Jazz needed 46 points from Paul Millsap the first time around. 11 of those points came in the final 28 seconds of regulation. Can you say fluke?

It's not easy winning in Utah, but this stacked Heat team is ready to silence doubters with its first signature road win. The Heat have covered the number in 4 straight, and I like them to cash another ticket tonight.

3* NBA *Marquee Matchup* (ESPN) on Nuggets +6.5
After failing to deliver George Karl his 1,000th career win last night, I expect the Nuggets to put together a much better effort in Boston this evening.

Boston is 9-1 at home this season but only 3-6-1 ATS. In addition, the Celtics are 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are 7-3-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

Denver saw its 7-game win streak come to an end last night, and it will not go down without a fight in Boston. Take the points as Denver takes the Celtics down to the wire with a chance to win this one outright.

3* NBA *TOP DOG* on Nets +6.5
This is a flat spot for Atlanta. After getting up for a pair of games with Miami and Orlando, the Hawks won't bring the same passion and energy to the floor tonight. Plus, they'll already be looking ahead to their next game with San Antonio, who owns the best record in the league.

New Jersey, meanwhile, has plenty of incentive to get up for this one following an atrocious performance against Boston in its last game.

Atlanta did lose to the Nets in New Jersey last month, but revenge hasn't been in the makeup of this team. In fact, it is just 11-23 ATS when revenging a straight up loss in a game in which it was favored over the last 3 seasons, actually losing by an average score of 99.2 to 97.4 in this situation.

In addition, Atlanta is 1-10 ATS in home games this season, where it is losing by an average score of 99.2 to 98.6. Bet the Nets.

4* NBA Tuesday Night Blowout on 76ers -7
The Cavs have lost 4 in a row by 10 or more points. One of those losses was a 34-point setback at lowly Minnesota. Cleveland has also dropped six in a row on the road by an average of 16.2 points.

Philly is starting to play some hoops. As a result, it has covered the spread in 5 straight and 7 of its last 8. In addition, the 76ers will be out for blood tonight. Cleveland has already defeated them twice this season, and there's no way they're going to drop a third to the struggling Cavs, especially with 2 days to prepare. The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Expect Philly to put the hurt on Cleveland in this highly motivated spot.

3* Monday Night NBA SMASH on Kings +4
I know the Kings lost by 18 in LA against the Clippers less than 2 weeks ago, but the 4-17 Clipps should not be laying 4 points to anyone. Tyreke Evans was just 2 of 13, scoring only 8 points, in that loss. We can expect much better from Evans tonight, and we can expect the Kings to be out for revenge after that embarrassing defeat.

The Clippers are a poor 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. They also haven't proven to be a solid investment when playing on back-to-back days. In fact, they are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when playing without rest.

The Kings gained a lot of confidence from playing Dallas so tough two nights ago, and I expect that to do wonders for them tonight. Lastly, plays on any cold team failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15, against an opponent that has covered 5 or 6 of their last 7, are 58-23 ATS since 1996, including 17-4 ATS the last 3 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been underdogs of 3.7 points on average, but they have won outright by an average of 1.0 point. Take the Kings.

4* NBA Underdog *BEST BET* on Cavaliers +1.5
After getting absolutely embarrassed by Miami, expect the Cavs to save face with a win over lowly Minnesota tonight. Plus, it's going to be hard for the T-Wolves to be ready to play after such an emotionally deflating loss last night. They blew a 15-point lead against San Antonio.

In addition, tired legs will be an issue for Minnesota playing back-to-back. Consider that the T-Wolves are 6-18 ATS in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons.

The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points while the Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less. The Cavaliers are also 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Cash in with the Cavs.

3* NBA Marquee Matchup (ESPN) on Bulls +5.5
The Bulls will be out for blood after an embarrassing loss to San Antonio in their last game. Chicago took Boston to OT at Boston earlier this season, and I like its chances of getting a win this time around.

Rajon Rondo is not at 100 percent, which means he's going to have his hands full with the bigger, stronger Derrick Rose.

The Bulls are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games. The Bulls are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

The Celtics are 8-25-1 ATS in their last 34 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games. Bet the Bulls.

4* NBA Underdog Shocker on 76ers +6
The 76ers have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games as they have been playing some solid basketball. I expect their solid play to continue against an Atlanta team playing without Joe Johnson.

The Hawks are just 1-9 ATS at home this season, and they will no doubt be more concerned with tomorrow's showdown with Miami.

The Hawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

Coach Doug Collins knows the recipe to beat Atlanta is to slow the game down. That recipe will especially work well tonight since the Hawks are without their best half court player. Take the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Warriors -2.5
The Suns are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings at Golden State. In addition, the Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points.

Golden State was absolutely crushed by San Antonio in its last game, but that plays to our advantage here. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home and 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

Phoenix is not the same team without Amare Stoudemire, and they are further hurt tonight by the absence of Robin Lopez. There is a chance they could be without Grant Hill as well (sprained foot). The Warriors, on the other hand, will benefit from having David Lee back in the lineup.

Monta Ellis did not play well last time out, but that should change tonight against the Suns' pathetic defense. The Warriors are 5-1 when Ellis has at least 25 points, and I expect a big game out of him this evening. Lay the number.

3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Clippers +7.5
I'll take the rested Clippers at home tonight against this veteran Spurs squad that just played an uptempo game last night.

The Spurs only won by 8 points when playing with rest in a matchup in LA against the Clippers earlier this season. Blake Griffin is a completely different player than he was a month ago, and I expect him to give the Spurs plenty of problems tonight.

The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Western Conference, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Take the Clippers and the points.