3* NBA No Doubt Rout on 76ers +

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Suns -

The Suns need to win this game to keep their hopes of making the playoffs alive. Phoenix can pull even with the Grizzlies in the standings with a win. While Memphis would secure the 8th and final spot with a victory, they still have a pretty good shot at making the playoffs even with a loss. Due to the fact that the Grizzlies have won each of the previous three meetings against Phoenix this season, Memphis holds the tiebreaker and would simply need to beat the Mavericks at home on Wednesday.

I'm not saying the Grizzlies won't take this game seriously, but they aren't in the best of scheduling spots. Memphis had to play last night in Los Angeles and both Marc Gasol (36) and Mike Conley (34) played big minutes. With the tempo that Phoenix likes to play at, I could see the Grizzlies coming out flat and lacking some intensity on the defensive end. Keep in mind that Memphis is just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win, 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

Phoenix hasn't played since Saturday and are a dominant 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 games when playing on 1 day of rest. The Suns are also 25-10 ATS in their last 35 following a SU loss and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 when they come in having failed to cover the spread in two of their last 3. Adding to this is the fact that the Grizzlies are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after playing their last game as a road favorite, while the Suns are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 after playing their last game as a road underdog.

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Jazz -

It's been a difficult season for the Jazz, but I look for them to come out and play extremely hard in their home finale tonight against the Lakers. With a win Utah can also pull even with Los Angeles for the worst record in the Western Conference. The Jazz are a respectable 16-24 at home for a team that has won just 24 games all season.

The Lakers are equally as bad as Utah, but the big key here is that Los Angeles will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set in the thin air of Salt Lake City. I just don't see the Lakers coming out with any energy or interest in this game, as they put a lot of effort into last night's game against the Grizzlies.

Utah has taken 2 of 3 against the Lakers this season, including a 96-79 blowout win in Los Angeles in the most recent meeting. That combined with the Lakers 12-point loss to Memphis last night set up a favorable system to fade Los Angeles. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a home loss of 10+ points and off a home loss by 10+ in their last game are just 31-61 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Jazz!

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Raptors -

While the Raptors recently clinched the Atlantic Division title, I look for them to come out strong against the Pistons. Toronto is a game back of Chicago for 3rd place and there's a big difference between finishing 3rd and 4th. Right now the Raptors would have to open up against the surging Nets and then face off against the Heat if they were able to advance to the 2nd round. Regardless if they catch the Bulls or not, the key here is that Toronto should show up.

Detroit on the other hand has absolutely nothing to play for and with the Raptors only playing for seeding, there's not a lot of reason for the Pistons to get excited about this game. Hard for me to believe a team that is completely out of it would be interested in an early afternoon game on a Sunday. Keep in mind that Detroit is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Sunday.

One of the big keys here is that the Pistons don't play a whole lot of defense. Detroit is allowing 110.0 ppg over their last 5. Bad defensive teams tend to struggle down the stretch. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are allowing 99+ ppg on the season are just 37-72 ATS in the month of April over the last 5 years. That's a 66% system in favor of the Raptors!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Nuggets -

The Nuggets may be out of the playoff race, but they have continued to play hard down the stretch and as a result are an impressive 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games. While Denver is just 3-6 SU in their last 9 games, it's worth noting that all six of those defeats came against teams who are currently in the playoff race. In fact their only game against a non-playoff contender during that stretch was versus the Pelicans at home. The Nuggets won that contest 137-107.

I don't see Denver having any problem beating the Jazz by double-digits. Utah is just 2-14 over their last 16 games and for the most part have not been competitive. The Jazz find themselves in the second game of a back-to-back set and this can be a very difficult spot for a bad team at this point in the season. Utah has no reason to get motivated for this game, as they have won each of the previous two matchups against the Nuggets. The Jazz are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing on no rest.

There's also a strong system favoring the Nuggets. A marginal losing team (40%-49%) who has gone over the total by 42 or more points in their last 7 seven games are 53-24 ATS over the last 5 seasons versus a bad team (25%-40%). That's a 69% system in favor of Denver!

4* NBA No Brainer on Bobcats -

This is a great price to get the surging Bobcats against the free falling Celtics. Charlotte has won five straight and are now 6th in the Eastern Conference standings. A spot they would like to keep, as they would avoid a first round matchup against either Miami or Indiana. Boston on the other hand has lost 9 straight and 14 of their last 15 overall.

Because the Bobcats were so bad a year ago, the public still has a difficult time getting behind this team. They have been showing great value just about every time they take the floor, which is why they are an impressive 46-29 ATS on the season. Charlotte has really added to this of late, going 12-3 ATS over their last 15 games. While they did lose 86-96 at home to the Celtics in the most recent meeting, they were able to come away with a 89-83 victory in their only trip to Boston this season. It's also worth mentioning that the loss to the Celtics was way back on Nov. 25 when they weren't playing very well.

Charlotte is 17-8 ATS revenging a loss of 10 or more points this season. The Bobcats also come in off a full two days rest and will be playing just their third game in the last seven days. Charlotte is 14-6 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in a span of 5 days. It's also worth noting that the Bobcats are 16-2 ATS in the second half of the season versus up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots /game.

Key system telling us to fade Boston. Home teams off 6 or more consecutive losses in the month of April are just 8-29 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 78% system in favor of the Bobcats!

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Trail Blazers -

I'm not worried about the massive line in this one. This is a perfect spot to fade the Kings, who just played a huge game last night at home against Oklahoma City. I just don't see a horrible team like Sacramento coming out strong on the road with no rest at this point in the season. Making matters even worse is the Kings are expected to once again be without starting point guard Isaiah Thomas and could also be missing Rudy Gay (questionable).

It's no secret that the Trail Blazers are at their best at home. Portland is 28-10 at home, compared to just 22-18 on the road. There's still an outside chance that the Blazers could catch 4th place Houston, which would give them the home court edge in the first round of the playoffs. That should be more than enough motivation for Portland to make easy work of the Kings. Keep in mind the last time Sacramento went on the road, they were annihilated by 33-points at Golden State.

Portland is 19-9 ATS when playing just their 4th game in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. The Trail Blazers will also be out for revenge as they fell 119-123 in Sacramento in the most recent matchup. Portland is 19-7 ATS this season when revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points. Combined that's a 70% (38-16) system favoring a Trail Blazers cover!

4* NBA No Limit ATS Annihilator on Grizzlies -

I think this is a great spot to fade the Heat. Miami has lost two of their last overall, including an upset loss at home to the Nets last night. While most would expect the Heat to rebound, you have to keep in mind that they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. That's becomes even more of a problem for Miami when you factor in that Memphis is playing on a full 2 days rest and just their 2nd game in the last 5 days overall.

While Miami is playing for home-court in the East, they have a .5-game lead over the Pacers and Indiana is starting to rest some of their key players. I don't believe this game is as important to the Heat as most think. As for the Grizzlies, their season is pretty much on the line. Memphis is 1-game back of 8th place Phoenix for the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs and have just 5 games left to make up the ground.

Even if Miami does show up, I still like the Grizzlies to win and cover. Memphis has won 11 straight at home. Last time the Heat visited FedEx Forum the Grizzlies won convincingly 104-86.

Miami just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games versus the Western Conference, while the Grizzlies are 37-15 ATS in their last 52 home games against a team with a winning road record and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games playing on 2 days of rest. Combined that's a 73% (47-17) system favoring a Memphis cover!

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Thunder -

I look for the Thunder to be all business when they take the floor against the Kings tonight. Oklahoma City comes into this game having lost 2 straight and are in danger of falling out of the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. The Thunder are just one game ahead of the Clippers with six games to play.

The good news is that Oklahoma City should have no trouble turning tonight's matchup against Sacramento into a blowout. The Kings have absolutely nothing to play for and to make matters worse they will be without point guard Isaiah Thomas, who is averaging 20.7 points and 6.4 assists on the year. In the two most recent meetings against the Kings, the Thunder have won by 13 and 15 points.

Oklahoma City is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games when they come in having failed to cover the number in 2 out of their last 3 games, 15-6-1 in their last 22 games when playing on a full days rest and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 off an upset loss as a road favorite. Add it up and that's a 53-21-1 (72%) system in favor of the Thunder! We also see that home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a loss to an opponent, after covering the spread but losing their last game outright as an underdog are just 41-84 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's another 67% system in favor of Oklahoma City!

4* NBA Total No Brainer on Knicks/Heat UNDER

I look for Sunday's showdown between the Knicks and Heat to finish well below the posted total. I expect both teams to bring the defensive intensity. New York desperately needs this game, as they are one game back of Atlanta for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with just 5 games left on the schedule. Miami on the other hand is tied with the Pacers for the top spot. Adding some value to the UNDER is the fact that this game will tip off at 1:00 EST, which could have the offenses coming out flat with the early start time.

Both of these teams come in playing extremely well defensively. The Knicks are allowing just 90.0 ppg over their last 5 and the Heat are only giving up 85.4 over their last 5. Oddsmakers have pretty much informed us that the game will be a defensive battle. Despite the fact that these two teams have combined for at least 190 points in each of three previous meetings (no total was lower than 197.5 for the game), we have a total for this one set below 190. They are clearly trying to get money on the over and I'm showing just over 60% of the bets right now being placed on the over.

The UNDER is 15-5 in the Knicks last 20 games versus teams with a winning record and 5-0 in their last 5 overall. It's also a perfect 6-0 in the Heat's last 6 versus a team with a losing record and 10-2 in their last 12 off a SU loss. Combined that's a 36-7 (84%) angle favoring this game to finish below the mark.

4* NBA Total Dominator on Bulls/Wizards UNDER

I expect a defensive battle tonight in Washington. Both these teams are fighting for playoff position. The Bulls are currently tied with the Raptors for 3rd in the East, while the Wizards are just 1.5-games back of 5th place Brooklyn and 2 games in front of 7th place Charlotte. Washington isn't as worried about catching the Nets as they are avoiding 7th and 8th, where they would have to face off against either Miami or Indiana in the first round.

Not only are these two of the better teams in the league in terms of defensive efficiency, but the big key is that neither look to push to the pace. Washington ranks 18th with an average of 95.6 possessions and the Bulls are way down there at 28th with just 92.8. I expect an even slower pace than what we normally see from these two, as both are in the second game of a back-to-back. On top of that, this will be Chicago's 5th game in the last 7 days and the Wizards 6th in the last 9 days.

The UNDER is 23-10 in the Bulls last 33 when playing on no rest, 16-6 in Chicago's last 22 with a line of +3 to -3, 17-7 in the Wizards last 24 when listed as a home favorite of 6 or less and 20-7 in Washington's last 27 in the second half of the season versus teams who have won between 51% to 60% of their games. Combined that's a 76-30 (72%) system!

4* NBA Western Conference No Brainer on Rockets -

This is the perfect spot to fade the Thunder and take advantage of the Rockets laying just 2.5-points at home. Oklahoma City comes in off an impressive 106-94 win over the Spurs last night, snapping San Antonio's 19-game winning streak.

The key here is that I just don't see the Thunder coming out strong in the second game of a back-to-back set. They don't have a ton to play for in the standings, as they are 3-games back of the Spurs and 2.5 ahead of the Clippers. Oklahoma City will also be without starting point guard Russell Westbrook, who is not playing in the second game of back-to-backs.

Houston on the other hand has a lot at stake in this one. The Rockets desperately need to get things headed in the right direction after dropping three straight. Houston currently has homecourt in the first round of the playoffs, but are just 1-game ahead of 5th place Portland.

You also have to take into consideration how well the Rockets have been playing at home, where they are 29-8 on the season. Houston's 11-1 over their last 12 games at the Toyota Center. While the Rockets have lost all three matchups against the Thunder this season, home teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are playing with triple revenge versus an opponent who has covered the spread in each of their last two games are 68-35 ATS since 1996. That's a 66% long-term system favoring Houston to cover!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Wizards/Knicks UNDER

Due to recent performances, I believe the bar has been set too high in this one. The Wizards put up 118 against the Celtics last time out, while the Knicks scored 110 against the Nets. Even with those offensive outburts, we see that Washington is only averaging 99.4 ppg over the their last 5 and New York putting up just 97.2 ppg over their last 5.

This is an important game for both teams. While the Wizards have clinched a playoff spot, they are currently sitting in 6th place, just 2 games ahead of Charlotte. The last thing they want to do is to fall back to 7th and have to play either Miami or Indiana in the first round. The Knicks on the other hand are fighting for their playoff lives. While they are technically ahead of the Hawks for the 8th and final spot, Atlanta has one fewer losses. With so much at stake, I expect both teams to bring it on the defensive end tonight.

There's also a strong system that supports a play on the UNDER. Since 1996 the UNDER has gone 23-4 in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where the road team enters having scored 55 or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent who scored 60 or more in the first half of their last contest. That's a 85% system in favor of the UNDER!

4* NBA No Brainer on Mavericks +

The Mavericks will be treating every game down the stretch like it's a playoff game and I believe it has Dallas showing exceptional value as a 4.5-point dog against the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles has already clinched a playoff spot and are more focused on getting healthy than winning games right now.

This is also a big revenge spot for the Mavericks, who just recently lost at home to Los Angeles last Thursday. The fact that the Clippers just beat Dallas will make it that much harder to get excited about tonight's matchup.

The Clippers are expected to have Blake Griffin back tonight, but I wouldn't be surprised if they took it easy on their All-Star to make sure he's 100% come playoff time. They are still without one of their top scores and key reserve in Jamal Crawford, who means more to this team than a lot of people realize.

This is also a difficult scheduling spot for Los Angeles. They just played a up-tempo game last night at Phoenix and are returning home from a lengthy 5-game road trip. Overall this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days.

We find a solid system telling us to fade the Clippers. Home favorites who are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game after allowing 110 or more in their last contest are just 50-89 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of a Mavericks cover. Adding to this is the fact that Dallas is 23-13 ATS in their last 36 road games and 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games when listed as an underdog.

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Thunder -

With the Spurs playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and potentially resting some of their key players tonight, I look for Oklahoma City to put an end to San Antonio's 20-game winning streak.

Oklahoma City has been playing pretty well themselves, as they enter having won 6 of their last 7. Not only are the Spurs playing on consecutive nights, but this will be their 5th game in the last 7 days overall. The Thunder on the other hand are playing on a full 3-days rest.

It's not just scheduling that makes Oklahoma City a play tonight. The Thunder have dominated this series, winning 7 of the last 8, including a 111-105 road win over the Spurs in the most recent meeting on Jan. 22.

Those worried about the Spurs being out for revenge, will be happy to see that underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a home loss and fresh off a cover as a double-digit favorite are just 13-35 ATS since 1996. That's a 73% system in favor of the Thunder!

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Suns -

I'll gladly back the Suns at home as small favorite against the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles will be without two of their top scorers in All-Star forward Blake Griffin (24.0 ppg) and key reserve Jamal Crawford (18.6 ppg). You also have to keep in mind that the Clippers are also playing without both Danny Granger and J.J. Redick.

Without two of their top players and having already secured a winning record on their current 5-game road trip, I look for the Clippers to come out flat and uninterested. The Suns on the other hand will be all business, as Phoenix is in a dogfight for one of the final playoff spots in the West. The Suns are currently tied for 7th in the standings, but are just 1/2 game ahead of 9th place Dallas.

We also find the Suns in a huge motivational spot from their ugly 99-115 road loss to the Lakers last time out, which snapped a 6-game winning streak. Phoenix should also benefit from a full 2 days rest against the depleted Clippers, who are playing their 5th road game in 8 days.

Explosive offensive teams who are averaging 103+ ppg (Suns) that trailed in their previous game by 15+ points are 147-79 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% long-term system in favor of Phoenix. We also see that the Suns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Nets -3

Solid value here on the Nets laying just 3-points at home against the Rockets. Brooklyn has won 13 straight at home and are a dominant 11-1 ATS over their last 12 at the Barclays Center. Houston is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage better than 60%.

We also find the Rockets playing at less than full strength. Houston is expected to be without All-Star center Dwight Howard and will once again not have guards Patrick Beverley or Ronnie Brewer available. We could also see forward Terrance Jones added to the list, who is questionable.

In their last game the Rockets lost 107-118 at home to the Clippers. The public will be expecting Houston to bounce back, but they are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a double-digit home defeat. We also ease the concern with the fact that the Rockets won 114-95 at home in the previous matchup against Brooklyn with the fact that the Nets are 13-5 ATS revenging a road loss this season.

Adding even more value to this is a strong system that supports both angles. Teams who are revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points and the opponent is off a home loss by 10 or more are 109-67 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Nets.

4* NBA Heavy Hitter on Clippers -

Even with the Clippers expected to be without Blake Griffin (doubtful), I feel there is huge value here on Los Angeles as a mere 2.5-point favorite. The Clippers are 15-2 in their last 17 games overall and a perfect 3-0 this season versus the Timberwolves.

Minnesota is fresh off a 99-114 loss at Brooklyn, which has them a full 7-games back of the 8th and final spot in the Western Conference playoff race. While they aren't mathematically eliminated, they know their not playing past the regular season. The letdown from missing the playoffs should have the Timberwolves coming out flat over their final 10 games.

While the Clippers are safely in the playoffs, they are just 1.5-games back of the Thunder for the No. 2 seed. That's more than enough motivation to finish strong.

Road favorites off 2 or more consecutive road wins who have won at least 60% of their games are 40-22 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of Los Angeles. The Clippers are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games when listed as a favorite off a road win as an underdog.

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pacers +4.5

The Pacers' are a league-best 33-4 at home this season and are showing exceptional value as a 4.5-point underdog. While the Pacers have lost two straight and four of five overall, each of those defeats came on the road. Indiana hasn't lost at home since March 4.

I'm confident the Pacers will show up in this one, as they should be extremely motivated to snap out of their funk and put an end to the Spurs 17-game winning streak. Even more reason to get up for this game is the fact that Indiana has lost 5 straight at home to San Antonio. You have to like that the Pacers didn't have any trouble getting past the Spurs in their previous meeting this season. Indiana came away with a 111-100 victory in San Antonio.

We find a solid system telling us to fade the Spurs. Teams revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points against an opponent who is fresh off an upset loss to a division rival are just 11-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Pacers covering.

We also see that underdogs who have failed to cover the spread in at least 12 of their last 15 games against an opponent who has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 are 39-13 ATS since 1996. That's a 75% system backing Indiana!

3* Oddsmakers Error on Chicago Bulls -

The Chicago Bills are clearly the much better team in this matchup, and I don't think this line is giving them enough credit. Chicago may have clinched a playoff spot, but they are still playing to improve their position since they currently sit in fourth place in the East. Picking up a win over Boston would potentially move them into a tie for third with Toronto.

This biggest advantage Chicago has in this game is its outstanding defense. The Bulls have held opponents to a mere 91.9 points per game this season. They have an easy task at hand facing the offensively challenged Celtics tonight. Boston is averaging a mere 95.6 points per game, and they barely get a boost in production at home improving to just 95.8 points per game. Defensively Boston has been soft allowing 99.7 points per game. Over their last five games the Celtics have been even worse, surrendering 101.6 points per game.

This matchup fits into a system to play on road teams like Chicago when they have gone under the total by 36 or more points in their last five games and they have won 45 to 55 percent of their games overall on the season. This system has a 109-54 (67%) ATS record over the last five seasons. The Bulls come into this matchup with a 40-32 record which puts them right at 55 percent on the season. After a poor showing against Portland in their last outing I think the Bulls are coming into this matchup completely undervalued.

4* No Brainer on Atlanta Hawks +

The Washington Wizards need to be on upset alert tonight. Atlanta has played extremely well against the division this season. The Hawks average 104.2 points per game against division opponents, and they will face a Wizards defense that has been struggling recently allowing 101 points per game.

The Wizards are playing in a bad letdown spot. First of all, they are coming off an upset win as an underdog against the Indiana Pacers. They are also playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation while Atlanta has the luxury of coming into this matchup with a day of rest.

You should play on road teams averaging 98 to 102 points per game against a team allowing 98 to 102 points per game when they are coming off two or more games allowing 100 points or more. This system is 88-33 (73%) against the spread over the last five seasons. The Hawks have surrendered 100 plus in three straight games, but the oddsmakers have undervalued them in this matchup since offensively the team should score at-will against the Wizards.

3* No Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -

The Houston Rockets have one of the most explosive offensive attacks in the league. They are averaging 108.8 points per game at home, and over their last five games that number is an even more impressive 118.2 points per game. Houston is on fire coming into this matchup having won five consecutive games.

The Clippers may have won three of their last five games, but they have been getting far too much credit from the oddsmakers in those matchups. Los Angeles is just 1-4 against the spread in their last five. The Clippers defense is also in big trouble tonight against the Rockets. They have surrendered 101.2 points per game on the road, and 102.4 points per game over their last five games, but have not faced a team that scores as quickly and easily as Houston during that stretch.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on home teams like Houston that are making 33 to 36.5 percent of their three-point attempts when they are facing a team allowing that same range defensively, and they are averaging 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers against an average pressure defense that forces 14.6 to 16.5 turnovers after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 59-32 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Denver Nuggets +

The Spurs have put together a long winning streak, but they struggled at home on Wednesday when facing the Nuggets. Now they get the Nuggets again, but this time in Denver. The Spurs won the last meeting by just five points in San Antonio, so getting over seven points on the Nuggets in Denver is a gift from the oddsmakers.

The Nuggets may not have a great record, but they have certainly been exceeding the oddsmakers expectations. Denver has covered the spread in seven of its last nine games. Covering the spread usually comes pretty easy for a team that is averaging 105.1 points per game at home. It is also worth noting that Denver is 10-1 ATS in home games when playing a team that has won 70 percent or more of its games on the season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Nuggets. You should play on underdogs like Denver when they average 103 points per game or more, and they allowed 55 points or more in the first have of their last two games. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have undervalued. It has resulted in a 55-27 (67%) record against the spread.

4* Heavy Hitter on Chicago Bulls -

The Bulls have a lot to play for tonight so I expect to see them put on a very strong showing. Chicago can clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Trail Blazers, and you have to like their chances to do so considering the situation Portland is playing in. The Trail Blazers will play their fifth consecutive road game, and it also happens to be the second half of a back-to-back after playing on the road against Atlanta yesterday.

The Bulls and Pacers can both make strong arguments for the best defense in the NBA. I would lean towards Chicago taking that crown when they have the luxury of playing on their home court. The Bulls have surrendered a mere 89.4 points per game at home this season while Portland comes into this matchup allowing 104.9 points per game on the road. Chicago's defense has been incredibly solid recently, allowing just 88 points per game over their last five games. They get to face a Trail Blazers team whose scoring average has dipped from 106.8 points per game down to a mere 97.2 points per game over their last five games.

You should play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Chicago when they are playing only their second game in the last five days and are up against an opponent playing their fourth game in the last five days. This system has an 82-42 (66%) record against the spread. When that team is a home favorite the system tightens up to 30-11 (73%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider of the Week on Portland Trail Blazers -

The Atlanta Hawks are playing in a very tough spot today. They have lost four consecutive games, and now the Hawks are tasked with facing a hungry Portland team in the second half of a back-to-back. Meanwhile, Portland is coming into this matchup with a day of rest. The Trailblazers have played in some close games recently and have caught a few bad breaks. I think they will be the hungry team in this matchup and easily pick up a big win over Atlanta.

The Trail Blazers explosive offense gives them a big advantage over Atlanta. When playing on the road Portland averages an impressive 105.8 points per game. They are facing an Atlanta team whose offense is really struggling right now. The Hawks are 1-4 over their last five games and have scored just 97.4 points per game during that stretch.

This matchup fits into a system to play against teams like Atlanta when the line is three points or less and they are revenging a loss against their opponent and are coming off a road loss. This system is 236-144 (62%) ATS over the last five seasons. You should also play on road teams like Portland that average 102 points per game or more against a team allowing over 102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 194-126 (61%) against the spread.

3* Total Annihilator on Nuggets/Spurs UNDER -

The value in this matchup is clearly on the under. Over their last five games the Supers have been playing incredibly well on defense. They are holding opponents to just 94.6 points per game during that stretch. The team is already solid defensively when playing at home, allowing just 97.5 points per game on the season.

When the Spurs are covering spreads it is generally because they are playing well on defense. The under is 31-13 in home games when San Antonio has covered the spread in eight or more of their last 10 games. The under is 62-34 in Denver's road games when facing an opponent from the Southwest division.

This matchup also fits into a very profitable system to play the under. You should take the under when the total is 210 points or more, and one of the teams (Denver) is revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 points or more, and they are off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. This system has a 71-38 (65%) record in favor of the under.

4* No Brainer on Detroit Pistons -

The Cavaliers are still without Kyrie Irving and I think it will catch up with them tonight. Cleveland picked up a win at home last night over Toronto, but now the Cavaliers are forced to play in a back-to-back situation with this second half game coming on the road against Detroit. It is also Cleveland's fourth game in the last five days.

The Cavaliers have not fared well on the road this season. They are losing two games for every one road win. Detroit comes into this matchup having won two of its last three home games, and they are playing some pretty solid basketball against division opponents. Detroit is surrendering just 97 points per game against the division, a number that is will below their overall defensive scoring average on the season.

You should play on a team like Detroit when they are scoring 98 to 102 points per game and are facing a defense allowing that same number after 42 or more games, and when coming off a combined score of 205 points or more in two straight games. This system identifies teams who have a hot offense right now. It has led to a 60-32 (65%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Raptors/Cavs UNDER -

Both of these teams are playing with a day of rest so this matchup should play out to be a defensive battle. The Raptors have surrendered an average of just 97.4 points per game on the road this season. They are facing a Cavaliers team that is not known for scoring a lot of points. Cleveland comes into this matchup averaging 97.3 points per game, and against a tough defense like Toronto's I think that number will be even lower today.

While Cleveland may not score a lot of points, the Cavaliers are a much better team defensively than they get credit for. Cleveland has held opponents to 99.3 points per game when playing at home. That bodes well for the under since Toronto's offensive production takes a big hit in road games. Both teams are playing with key injuries, and I think that will also have a big impact on the total score.

You should play the under when the total is 190 to 199.5 points and one of the teams (Toronto) is off a home win by 10 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off an upset win as a road underdog. This system has a 142-93 (60%) record in favor of the under. It is also worth noting that the under is 10-1 when Cleveland is coming off a road win, and it is 16-4 when Toronto is playing a team winning 25 to 40 percent of its games in the the second half of the season.

4* Heavy Hitter on Orlando Magic +

This line screams trap game for Portland backers. The Magic are coming into this matchup with a day of rest, and they face a Trail Blazers team that is playing in a very tough back-to-back spot after losing on the road against Miami last night. After suffering a heartbreaking two-point loss like that I don't think Portland will be coming into this game with the mentality it takes to cover a six-point spread.

The Magic are not a great team, I don't think anybody would argue that, but they are pretty solid at home. It is worth noting that 15 of their 19 wins this season have come on their home court. Orlando's record at home is just a few games back from Portland's record on the road. The Magic should also score at will in this game against a soft Trail Blazers defense. Portland has surrendered 105.7 points per game on the road and 109.6 points per game over their last five games.

Portland is 13-25 ATS after two or more consecutive losses, and they are 10-22 ATS after playing two or more consecutive games as an underdog. This is a mentally weak team. The Trail Blazers have now lost seven of their last 10 games. We will take the points with Orlando, but it would not be surprising to see Portland drop its third consecutive game tonight.

3* Bailout Blowout on LA Clippers -

This may seem like a lot of points, but when you look at the disparity in talent between these teams the value is clearly with the Clippers. Milwaukee has won a mere five games on the road this season. They are losing those matchups by a near double-digit margin and now have to face one of the leagues hottest teams with one of the highest scoring offenses. You also have to consider the fact that Milwaukee is coming off an embarrassing 17 point loss at Sacramento just last night.

The Clippers come into this matchup with a day of rest, and with an offense that is averaging 110.7 points per game. Defensively Los Angeles has been great when playing at home. They have held opponents to a mere 99.4 points per game this season. Milwaukee is sitting well below the Clipper's opponents scoring average of 101.1 points per game. The Bucks are averaging 95.2 points per game.

Milwaukee is 4-16 against the spread when facing a team that is outscoring its opponents by six or more points per game. They are also 10-22 ATS against teams that are making 46 percent or more of their shot attempts. The Clippers come into this matchup making over 48 percent of their attempts at home, and they will have no problem picking up a blowout win over the Bucks.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +

The Jazz should have no problem picking up a win over Detroit tonight. The Pistons are riding a five game losing streak, and they are showing no signs of life. Things have not been going well for the Jazz either, but they are playing in a great spot to pick up a second consecutive win tonight. They picked up a big victory over Orlando in their last outing, and Utah has the luxury of playing the host role in this matchup.

Detroit is a bad team, but when playing on the road they somehow go from bad to worse. The Pistons have won a mere 10 road games all season. They are surrendering 105.1 points per game on the road, while the offense is barely able to keep up with opponents' defensive scoring averages at 100.6 points per game. The last time these teams met Utah picked up a dominating win over Detroit. The Pistons were the host team in that matchup, and ended up losing to the Jazz with a 89-110 final score.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Pistons. You should play against teams like Detroit when they are revenging a loss of 10 points or more, and are coming off two road covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have overvalued, and it has resulted in a 63-29 (69%) record against the spread.

5* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies -

Minnesota is playing in a very tough spot. The Timberwolves just lost at home against Phoenix last night, and now they have to try to avoid their third straight loss by playing on the road in the second half of a back-to-back situation where they will face the Memphis Grizzlies. Added to that is the fact that Memphis has been on fire, winning nine of its last 12 games.

The biggest problem for Minnesota this season has been its defense. Minnesota has lost three of its last five games, and four of those five games resulted in losses against the spread. During that stretch the Timberwolves have surrendered an average of 117 points per game. Meanwhile, Memphis comes into this matchup holding opponents to a mere 84.8 points per game over its last five games. These teams are headed in opposite directions down the stretch, and the Grizzlies should have no problem picking up a big win tonight.

This matchup fits into a system to play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Minnesota when they are coming off a home loss, and trying to revenge a home loss by their opponent. These teams met in Minnesota earlier this season and it was Memphis that picked up a four-point win. This system has a 119-76 (61%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

4* Eastern Conference Game of the Week on New York Knicks -

The Knicks are one of the hottest teams in the NBA. They have won eight consecutive games and will look for a ninth straight win tonight when they host the struggling Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland is riding a four game losing streak, and the Cavaliers are playing in a very tough back-to-back spot after hosting Houston last night.

Over their last five games the Cavaliers have been playing right in line with their season averages in both scoring and points allowed. On the offensive side of things they have averaged 97 points per game, while defensively they have surrendered 103.2 points per game. They are 1-4 during that stretch. The Cavaliers are simply a bad team, and they will struggle to keep this game within single-digits against a red hot Knicks team that is averaging 107.8 points per game over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a system to play against the Cavaliers. You should fade teams like Cleveland when they are a road underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, and they are trying to revenging a home loss against their opponent when that loss came by 10 points or more, and they are coming into this matchup off a home loss. The last time these teams met the Knicks picked up a 107-97 win in Cleveland just a couple weeks ago, and the Cavaliers coming off a seven point loss to Houston last night. This system is 58-29 (67%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Bulls/Pacers UNDER -

The Chicago Bulls have played great defense all season, but it seems as though they save there best work for division opponents. Chicago has surrendered a mere 87.1 points per game against division opponents this season. If you are worried about how the defense will do on the road there is no cause for concern. First of all, its a short road trip to Indiana, but the Bulls have also held opponents to just 92.4 points per game on the road this season.

The Indiana Pacers have also played some outstanding defense. Indiana allows a mere 87.1 points per game at home this season, and they have held division opponents to a similar number at 89.7 points per game. Both of these teams are coming into this matchup with a day of rest which always seems to help on the defensive end of the court. It is also worth noting that Chicago has gone under the total in two of its last three games while Indiana has gone under in four of its last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the under. You should play the under when the total is between 180 to 189.5 points, in a game involving two good defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of 41.5 to 43.5 percent and two good rebounding teams that are +3 to +5.5 in rebounding margin. This system has a 50-20 (71%) record in favor of the under.

3* Total Annihilator on Wizards/Blazers OVER -

The total for this contest has been set far too low for a game involving two explosive offenses and two teams that do not play a lot of defense. Over their last five games the Blazers have surrendered an average of 108.6 points per game. On the offensive end of the court Portland is averaging 106.4 points per game during that stretch.

With Portland playing soft defense lately the Wizards are in a great spot to put a big number up on the scoreboard. Washington averages over 100 points per game on the road, and they have done so against opponents with a defensive scoring average that is far less than the 103.2 points per game Portland has surrendered this season. The Wizards defense could also be in for a long night. Washington has surrendered 100.4 points per game this season against opponents with a scoring average of 100.3 points per game. Tonight they are up against a Blazers team averaging 108 points per game at home.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the over. You should play the over when any team (Portland) went over the total by 18 or more points in their previous game and they are facing an opponent that went over the total by 24 points or more in their previous game. Portland went over the total by 29 points in their last outing against Milwaukee, while Washington went over by 27 points in their last outing against Sacramento. This system is 383-260 (60%) in favor of the over.

4* No Brainer on New Orleans Pelicans -

The Pelicans have been playing well recently, while Toronto seems to be headed in the opposite direction. Now New Orleans will play host to the Raptors after two days of rest while Toronto is playing in a back-to-back situation. The Raptors were on the road last night against Atlanta. Playing in a back-to-back situation is always tough, but back to back road games gives New Orleans a big advantage.

The Pelicans offense is on fire right now. Over their last five games they are averaging an impressive 107 points per game. They have the luxury of facing a Raptors squad that has struggled on the road this year averaging just 99 points per game. Toronto's defense is playing horribly right now. They have surrendered 119.5 points per game over the last two games and things will not get any easier tonight when they are playing without rest against this red hot Pelicans offense.

You should play against teams averaging 98 to 102 points per game like Toronto after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games and they are facing a team allowing 102 points per game or more. This system has a 77-40 (66%) record against the spread. It is also worth noting that New Orleans is 114-83 against the spread in home games when revenging a same season loss.

4* Vegas Insider on Toronto Raptors -

The Raptors are an easy call in this matchup with Atlanta. The Hawks are playing in a tough spot today after picking up a road win over Charlotte last night. It was a defensive battle that had to take its toll on Atlanta, and now they are forced to play in the second half of a back-to-back situation against a hungry team like the Raptors.

Toronto is coming into this game with a day of rest. The Raptors have won 11 of their last 15 games, and they are playing like a team on a mission. Over their last five games they have averaged 104.2 points per game. They should have no problem scoring on an Atlanta defense that has surrendered 102.1 points per game on the season.

You should play against home dogs like Atlanta when they are trying to revenge a blowout loss of 20 points or more and their opponent is coming off an upset loss as a favorite. This system is 102-61 (63%) against the spread. You should also play against home teams when the line is three points or less and they are off a road win and trying to revenge a loss. This system has a 92-50 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +

We will take the points, but I think Denver is the team that ends the Clippers recent win streak. Los Angeles was at home last night hosting Cleveland, and now they have to play on back-to-back nights by traveling to Denver to face the Nuggets in mile high altitude. The Nuggets have been playing well recently, winning two of their last three games all on the road. Now they get a day of rest and will be playing from the comfort of their home court.

The Clippers recent run can be credited to tough defensive play. Even good defensive teams struggle when playing in the mile high altitude of Denver, so I think the Nuggets are poised to put a big number on the scoreboard. The team averages 104.5 points per game at home this season. The Nuggets met the Clippers in early February and picked up a win on their home court. I expect another close game between the teams today, with Denver having a chance to win outright in the end.

You should play on home teams like Denver when they average 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers and they are facing an average pressure defense forcing 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers after 42 or more games on the season. This system is 119-82 (59%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play on teams averaging 103 points per game or more after training in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have undervalued and it has resulted in a 143-78 (65%) record against the spread.

4* NBA Heavy Hitter of the Week on Brooklyn Nets -

The Suns have won two straight, but they won't make it a third when they face the Brooklyn Nets tonight. Brooklyn has won seven of its last nine games and they are trying to close the gap on Washington and maintain a lead over Charlotte in the Eastern Conference standings. The Nets have a 20-11 home record to protect, and that includes a very profitable 18-13 record against the spread in those games.

The Phoenix Suns are playing in a back-to-back situation after facing Toronto on the road last night. The Suns will be playing in their third consecutive road game, and their fifth road game in their last six contests tonight. This is a brutal stretch of schedule that will catch up with the Suns against an underrated Nets team.

You should play against underdogs like Phoenix when they are revenging a home loss against their opponent, and that opponent is coming off a road loss. This system is 197-133 (60%) over the last five seasons. When that underdog is a road underdog the system tightens up to 167-108 (61%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Atlanta Hawks +

The Atlanta Hawks suffered a poor stretch of games in February and early March, but they have bounced back strong winning three consecutive games coming into this matchup. Charlotte has a 2.5 game lead on Atlanta in the Eastern Conference standings, so I like the Hawks to play with plenty of motivation tonight.

Charlotte is playing in a very tough spot. They were on the road yesterday against Milwaukee, and now the Bobcats have to play a very talented Atlanta team in the second half of a back-to-back. The Hawks have been on fire recently, averaging 103.2 points per game over their last five games. Against division opponents they are averaging 104.8 points per game. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are averaging a mere 96.7 points per game against the division while surrendering 102 points per game.

You should play against home teams like Charlotte when they are trying to revenge a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and they are playing on back-to-back days. This system has a 101-51 (66%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play against home teams with a line of three points or less when they are off a road win and revenging a loss to their opponent. This system is 91-50 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Annihilator on Rockets/Heat UNDER

The total for this game is set far too high. This game is being played at Miami, so I like the Heat to control the pace of this game. Miami's defense has surrendered just 98.8 points per game at home this season while their opponents have an offensive scoring average over 100 points per game.

Both of these teams are struggling on the offensive end of the court over their last five games, at least when compared to their season averages. Houston has scored 103.2 points per game over their last five games which is three points per game below their overall scoring average. They should struggle to match that number today against an underrated defense like Miami's. The Heat are also having trouble scoring points, averaging just 95.2 points per game over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play the under. You should take the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points and one team (Houston) is off an upset loss as a road favorite, and they have a winning record on the season and are facing another team with a winning record. This matchup has a 104-61 (63%) record in favor of the under.

5* Eastern Conference No Doubt Rout of the Month on Bobcats -

The Bobcats are up against one of the league's worst teams tonight, and they should have no problem covering a single-digit number against them. Charlotte has won three straight coming into this matchup, and five of their last six. Meanwhile, the Bucks have lost six of their last seven games, and they are showing no signs of life as the regular season unwinds.

Not only are the Bucks on a bad losing streak, they are also playing in a very tough back-to-back situation. Milwaukee was just on the road yesterday against New York, and now they have to immediately travel home to play host to the Bobcats. Playing in a back-to-back situation is tough on any team, but I expect it to really take its toll on this Bucks team that looks like they have thrown in the towel on their season.

You should play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Milwaukee when they are playing in a double revenge situation having lost their last two games against their opponent, and they are coming into the matchup off of two or more consecutive road losses. This system identifies favorites that are being undervalued. It has resulted in a 117-67 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Brooklyn Nets -

After picking up a road win over Miami in their last outing, the Brooklyn Nets are the hottest team in the NBA right now. They have won seven of their last eight games, and have a matching 7-1 ATS record during that stretch. The Nets will face a Wizards team that is starting to cool off after having lost two of their last three games.

The Wizards are not a team that gets a lot of benefit from home court advantage. Statistically they they do not improve on either end of the court, and they have a 16-16 record at home this season. They are playing in a very touch spot after facing the Magic on the road last night, while Brooklyn is coming into this matchup with two full days of rest.

The Nets are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games against Southeast Division opponents. The Wizards on the other hand are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams from the Eastern Conference. Washington is also 2-10 ATS at home against a team that has a losing record on the road. I think the fact that Brooklyn struggled on the road early in the season has only created value on them today, and the Nets pick up a dominating win over the Wizards in this matchup.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington Wizards -

The Wizards are playing in a great spot to snap their two game losing streak and pick up a big win over the Magic. Orlando has lost four consecutive games, and even with Washington's losses in their last two games the Wizards have still won eight of their last 11 games. Orlando has been horrible against the division this season posting a 3-9 record and allowing 105 points per game. They are -6.4 points per game in scoring differential when facing a division opponent.

Washington's explosive offense should have no problem scoring on Orlando today. The Magic have surrendered 102.2 points per game overall, and 105.6 points per game over their last five games. Orlando has had a lot of trouble scoring points this season. They average 97 points per game overall, but I think they will struggle to match that number tonight. Washington has held division opponents to 96.5 points per game this season and Orlando is one of the worst teams in the division.

You should play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Orlando when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 points or more and they are coming off a home loss. This system is 90-47 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play on road favorites like Washington against a division opponent when they are coming off an upset loss as a favorite against another division opponent. This system is 72-38 (66%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -

The Clippers are riding an eight game win streak, and I see no reason why they won't be able to continue to keep that record intact on their home court today. Over their last five games the Clippers are averaging an impressive 115 points per game, while the defense has surrendered a mere 95.8 points per game. They are facing a Golden State team that has surrendered 101 points per game to division opponents this season.

Rest profiles are also in favor of the Clippers. They come into this game with a day to prepare, while Golden State is coming off a game last night where they hosted Dallas. Golden State's up-tempo style of play plays into the Clippers favor. They are 47-29 against the spread versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shot attempts per game.

You should play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Clippers when they are revenging a road loss of 10 points or more and the game involves two good teams having won 60 to 75% of their games on the season. The last time these teams met the game was played at Golden State and the Warriors won big, so I expect the Clippers to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight. This system is 116-70 (62%) against the spread.

5* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year on Knicks -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The New York Knicks are playing for a season best fifth consecutive win. Almost surprisingly, the Knicks are just 3.5 games back on Atlanta for the eighth and final seed in the playoffs. With the season winding down this is a motivated team that will be hungry for a win against a Boston team that is not far behind them in the conference standings.

Boston is playing in a tough spot after losing on the road just last night to Indiana. Now they have to play in a tough back-to-back situation against a red hot and well rested Knicks team. A bad team like the Celtics usually does not fare well in these situations. Add in the fact that New York is averaging 108.2 points per game over its last five games while Boston is allowing 99.8 points per game during that stretch and we have a blowout in the making.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Celtics. You should fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Boston when they are revenging a loss against their opponent, and they are coming off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system finds home underdogs the oddsmakers have overvalued. It has resulted in a 64-27 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Toronto Raptors -

The Detroit Pistons are really struggling right now. They have lost 10 of their last 13 games, and although they picked up a win over Sacramento in their last outing, they have done very little to show any signs of life. Now the Pistons are tasked with facing one of the best teams in the Atlantic division.

If the losing streak and a tough opponent were not enough, their unfavorable rest profile should be. Detroit is playing in a back to pack situation after hosting the Kings last night. They have to face a Toronto team that is playing with a day of rest, and the Raptors should be playing with plenty of motivation after dropping a close game on the road with their division rival.

You should play against teams like Detroit when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 points or more, and that opponent is coming off a loss against a division rival. The last time these teams met Toronto handed the Pistons a 112-91 beat down. This system has a very favorable 84-38 (69%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. When the team is an underdog revenging a loss that system tightens up to 57-24 (70%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. Milwaukee is one of the worst teams in the league, and the Bucks have done very little to show they are capable of keeping this game close against an excellent offensive team like Minnesota. The Timberwolves are averaging 106.6 points per game at home, while Milwaukee has surrendered an average of 104 points per game on the road this season.

What makes things even worse for the Bucks is the fact that they are forced to play in a back-to-back situation after hosting Orlando last night. Now they face this Minnesota team that is playing with a day of rest. The Bucks are 1-11 ATS when playing their fourth game in five days, and that is a trend that should continue tonight against Minnesota.

You should play on teams like Minnesota in a game involving two teams allowing 102 points per game or more, after they have scored 100 points or more in four straight games. This system is 77-42 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons. The worst team in the league will not be able to stop Minnesota tonight and the W'Wolves win this game in a blowout.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Memphis Grizzlies -

At one point in the season the Portland Trailblazers looked nearly unstoppable. That day is long gone, and now they enter tonight's matchup with Memphis having lost three of their last four games. The Grizzlies on the other hand have won four of their last five games, as their season begins to turn the corner.

Over their last five games the Grizzlies offense has really turned things up. They are averaging 102 points per game, while the defense is surrendering a mere 93.8 points per game. That tough Grizzlies defense should give the Trailblazers fits tonight, and Portland's poor defensive play on the road (105.6 points per game allowed) should allow Memphis to easily pull away with a win.

This matchup fits into a system to fade Portland. You should play against teams like the Grizzlies when they are revenging a straight up loss against an opponent as a home favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. This system has a very profitable record of 127-74 (63%) against the spread.

3* Total Dominator on Raptors/Nets UNDER

With the playoffs drawing near I expect two of the best teams in the Atlantic Division to play to their strengths. Both of these teams are soft on offensive production, but both have played some outstanding defense this year. The total on this game is far too high for a matchup that should prove to be a defensive battle.

The Raptors come into this game holding opponents to a mere 96.5 points per game on the road. They have put up that stellar number against teams with a much more potent offense than what the Nets bring to this game. Toronto's opponents have a scoring average over 100 points per game, but Brooklyn is averaging just 97.4 points per game this season. It is a similar story for Brooklyn. The Nets have held opponents averaging 100.1 points per game to just 97.2 points when playing at home. They will host a Raptors team averaging 98.6 points per game on the road this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the under. You should play the under when the total is 190 to 199.5 points and one of the teams (Brooklyn) is off a home win by 10 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off an upset win as a road underdog. In this situation the under has a 142-91 (61%) record.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Charlotte Bobcats -

The Charlotte Bobcats have won six consecutive home games, and they should have no problem making it a seventh straight when they host the Denver Nuggets tonight. Denver has been horrible on the road this season posting an 11-19 record. The biggest problem for the Nuggets has been their defense. They are allowing 107.1 points per game on the road.

Charlotte may not be known for an explosive offensive attack since the team averages 95.4 points per game, but that should change in this matchup with Denver. The Bobcats are averaging 101 points per game over their last five games, and they are facing a Nuggets team that has surrendered 116 points per game over their last five games. Charlotte has the benefit of home court advantage, and the Bobcats are also getting Denver in a back-to-back situation after playing New Orleans on the road yesterday.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Bobcats. You should play against road underdogs like Denver when they are revenging a home loss and their opponent is coming off a loss on the road. This system is 164-103 (61%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Southeast Division Game of the Month on Wizards +

The Miami Heat are playing in a very tough spot tonight. First of all, the Heat have lost three consecutive games coming into this matchup. The Heat just played yesterday in Chicago in a losing effort against the Bulls. Now they are tasked with returning home to host the Wizards in a back-to-back situation when Washington is coming into this game with a day of rest.

Washington is one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. The Wizards have won eight of their last night games, including five consecutive on the road. Washington is averaging 115.6 points per game over their last five games, and they are averaging 104.7 points per game against division opponents. The defense has really stepped up in those division games, allowing a mere 96 points per game.

You should play against home teams like Miami when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and they are playing on back-to-back days. This system is 99-50 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play on road teams like Washington when they are averaging 98 to 102 points per game and are facing a defense allowing the same number of points aver 42 or more games, and that road team has scored 100 points or more in two straight games. This system is 48-17 (74%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -

The Pacers may be on a three game skid, but they are still clearly the best team in the league. Their recent losing streak has only created value as Indiana looks to get some revenge against Dallas from a loss last month. The Mavericks are not playing much better than Indiana, so it is surprising to see the Pacers listed as such a small favorite. Dallas has lost three of its last four games coming into this matchup.

The Indiana Pacers have the best defense in the league in terms of points allowed. They have held opponents to a mere 92 points per game this season. The last time they faced the Mavericks the Pacers gave up just 81 points. They suffered from a poor shooting performance in that game, but that was an anomaly that should not be credited to good defensive play from Dallas. The Mavericks have allowed 102.5 points per game at home this season and opponents are making 47 percent of their shot attempts in those games.

You should play against home underdogs like Dallas when they are averaging less than 14.5 turnovers per game and are facing a team that forces less than 14.5 turnovers per game after 42 or more games. This system is 233-157 (60%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Indiana is the better team, and winning by two points should be an easy task for the best team in the East.

4* Total Annihilator of the Week on Heat/Bulls UNDER

This matchup features two very talented defenses. The Heat have held opponents to 98.5 points per game on the road this season. Those opponents have a scoring average of 100 points per game so they should easily improve on that number against this Bulls team that is averaging only 93 points per game.

Chicago has arguably the best defense in the league. They have held opponents to 89.6 points per game when playing at home. Over their last five games they have surrendered just 91.2 points per game. The Bulls have put these numbers up against teams with an offensive scoring average of 100.2 points per game which is a comparable number to Miami's offensive scoring average this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the under. You should take the under when the road team has a +3 to +7 point scoring differential and is coming off a game allowing 110 points or more, and they are facing an average team that has a +/- 3 point scoring differential and the total has been set between 180 to 189.5 points. This system has an impressive 24-4 (86%) record in favor of the under.

5* Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Wizards -

Milwaukee is the worst team in the league. They have allowed opponents 102.3 points per game this season, while the offense has averaged a mere 92.8 points per game when playing at home. Washington is a very good team with an explosive offense, and the Wizards have no business being a single-digit favorite. Washington has averaged 115.8 points per game over their last five games and they will have no problem picking up a double-digit win today.

The Bucks come into this matchup with a 7-25 straight up record at home, and a 12-20 ATS record in those games. Washington on the other hand has been a great team to back on the road this season with a 22-8 ATS record. Washington is also the hot team coming into this matchup. The Wizards have won seven of their last eight games, posting a 6-2 record against the spread.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Bucks. You should play against home underdogs like Milwaukee when they have lost 15 or more of their last 20 games and they have won 25 percent of their games or less on the season, and they are facing a team with a winning record. This system has an 80-38 (68%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

4* Total Annihilator on Pacers/Rockets UNDER

The Indiana Pacers are a very good team defensively. They are trying to secure the top overall seed in the East, and following a two game losing streak I expect the Pacers to come out with a strong defensive performance tonight against the Rockets. Indiana has held opponents to a mere 91.6 points per game this season.

Houston is a much better team defensively than it gets credit for. The Rockets opponents have an offensive scoring average of 101.2 points per game, yet Houston has surrendered just 99 points per game when playing at home. They will catch a break tonight against a Pacers team that averages a mere 97.4 points per game on the road. It is also worth nothing that over their last five games the Pacers scoring average has dipped down to 96 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the under. You should take the under in a matchup that features an average three point shooting team making 33 to 36.5 percent of their attempts like the Rockets, against an average three point shooting defense allowing the same percentage like Indiana, in a game involving two teams that are +3 to +5.5 in rebounding margin per game after 42 or more games. This system has a record of 100-57 (64%) in favor of the under.

4* Heavy Hitter on Denver Nuggets -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Lakers are playing in a tough spot tonight. They are in the second half of a back-to-back after hosting the Clippers last night, and now they have to play on the road against Denver. In last night's game the Lakers were blown out by 48 points so the team's confidence has to be at a season low.

The Nuggets have an explosive offense. They are averaging 103.6 points per game at home this season. They should have no problem putting up an even bigger number tonight since the Lakers have allowed 108.2 points per game on the road. It is also worth noting that over their last five games the Lakers have surrendered an average of 122 points per game.

You should play against road underdogs like the Lakers when they are revenging a home loss to their opponent, and they are coming off two or more consecutive home losses. The last time these teams met the Nuggets picked up a 22 point win in Los Angeles. This system has a 66-31 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Blazers/Mavericks OVER

Both of these teams are soft defensively. The Trailblazers are coming into this matchup allowing 105.3 points per game when playing on the road. They are scoring 108 points per game in road games so there is very little doubt about Portland making a big contribution towards the over. In fact, the over has an 18-11 record when Portland is on the road this season.

The Mavericks should also do their part towards sending this game over the total. The team averages 106.9 points per game at home, but against a soft defense like Portland's they should be able to exceed that number. Defensively the Mavericks are giving up 102.6 points per game, but that number will probably be a lot higher tonight against Portland's outstanding offense. The Mavericks have also surrendered 104.8 points per game over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the over. You should take the over when the total is 200 points or more and the road team is coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more. This system has a 44-14 (76%) record in favor of the over.

4* Vegas Insider on Oklahoma City Thunder -

The Thunder are on fire right now having won three straight games coming into this matchup against the Suns. Phoenix is coming off a tough loss to the Clippers in its last outing, and I expect a similar result tonight against Oklahoma City. Over their last five games the Thunder are averaging 115 points per game, and they should have no problem putting up another huge number against the Suns' soft defense.

The Suns are struggling at the point guard position, and that will make it incredibly difficult to play a close game against a top tier team like the Thunder. Eric Bledsoe has been out since December with a knee injury, and in their last game against the Clippers the Suns lost their backup Leandro Barbosa. Barbosa will miss up to six weeks with a fractured hand. The Suns are now 2-4 in their last six games and allowing more than 110 points per game during that stretch.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Thunder. You should play on road favorites like Oklahoma City when they are coming off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more. This system identifies teams that the oddsmakers have undervalued, and it has resulted in a 56-29 (66%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics +

The Warriors are playing in a letdown spot today after winning a close game on the road against Indiana last night. Playing in a back-to-back situation is always tough, but doing so when coming off a big win like Golden State is will prove to be incredibly difficult tonight against this Celtics team that is starting to get hot on offence. Over their last five games Boston has averaged 100 points per game.

Boston has covered the spread in three of their last four games. They are coming into this matchup with plenty of rest having three days off since hosting the Pacers the first of March. These teams met back in January and the Celtics managed to stick to within two points playing at Golden State. This time they have the luxury of playing host, so I like their chances to play another close game with the Warriors.

The Warriors have been a soft team defensively when playing on the road. They are surrendering 99.9 points per game, and that puts them at a serious disadvantage against this well rested Celtics team. Boston has held opponents to 97.3 points per game at home this season, and they should have no problem improving on that number against Golden State tonight.

3* Total Dominator on Bulls/Pistons UNDER

This total is far too high considering the way these teams match up tonight. Detroit may not be known for playing great defense, but they have performed well defensively when facing a division opponent. The Pistons are surrendering a mere 94.4 points per game against the division, and the under looks really attractive when you consider their offensive production also takes a hit down to 98.4 points scored in those games.

Chicago is holding division opponents to 86.5 points per game. The Bulls have one of the best defenses in the league, and I think they should easily keep the Pistons in check tonight. On the offensive end of the court the Bulls are nothing to be worried about. When playing on the road this season Chicago is averaging a mere 91.7 points per game, and against division opponents they are averaging just 90.6 points per game.

You should play the under when one of the teams has beaten the spread by 36 or more points in their last five games (Chicago), and they have won 51 to 60 percent of their games on the season and are facing a team with a losing record. This system is 55-37 (60%) in favor of the under for the last five seasons.

4* Letdown Game of the Week on Bobcats +

The Indiana Pacers are playing in a bad letdown spot after losing at home to Golden State last night. Now they are in the second half of a back-to-back, traveling to Charlotte to take on the Bobcats. Charlotte should be well prepared for this game since they are playing with a day of rest following a three game road trip.

The Bobcats have been playing some great basketball at home recently. They have a perfect 4-0 record in their last four home games, which includes an upset win as an underdog over the Dallas Mavericks. Charlotte's last loss at home came against San Antonio, but it was a game where the Bobcats still managed to cover the spread. Now they have the luxury of facing Indiana in a percent situation to give the Pacers a scare.

Charlotte is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games against teams from the Central division. Meanwhile, the Pacers are coming into this matchup with a 1-6 ATS record in their last seven games overall. Indiana has really been struggling away from home posting a 2-6 ATS record in their last eight road games.

4* Western Conference Total of the Week on Lakers/Pelicans OVER

The New Orleans Pelicans are coming into this matchup with some serious issues on the defensive end of the court. Over their last five games the Pelicans have surrendered an average of 109.8 points per game. On the offensive end of the court the Pelicans should be fine tonight since they face a Lakers team that is allowing 109.6 points per game over their last five games.

With both defenses surrendering a combined average of 219.4 points per game over their last five games I think we are getting a lot of value on the over tonight. The Pelicans offense should get the boost they need facing a struggling defense like the Lakers, and the Lakers should have no problem continuing to put up big offensive numbers since they are already averaging 106 points per game over their last five games. It is also worth noting that the Lakers have gone over the total in six of their last seven games.

The over has a 39-19 record over the last two seasons when the Pelicans are facing a team with a losing record. When their opponent is being outscored by three or more points per game the over is 11-3 in Pelican's games this season. The over is also 13-5 in Lakers games against poor pressure defenses that are forcing less than 14 turnovers per game. Both teams are playing extremely soft defense right now, and they have gone over the total in four of the last five head-to-head meetings.

3* No Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets +

The Miami Heat are playing in a very tough spot tonight, and even Lebron James won't be able to get them past the Rockets. Miami was at home last night hosting Charlotte, and now they have to play the second half of a back-to-back on the road in Houston tonight. The Rockets have been on fire recently, winning 11 of their last 13 games. Over their last five games they are scoring an impressive 110.8 points per game.

Houston has a 23-7 record at home this season, and the oddsmakers have really undervalued their home court advantage tonight. The Rockets are holding opponents to a mere 98.8 points per game when playing at home, while averaging 106.9 points per game on the offensive end of the court. With Houston's offense playing as well as they have been, and Miami playing without rest, the Rockets should have no problem picking up a win on their home court.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Houston. You should play against road teams like Miami when the line is three points or less and they went over the total by 18 points or more in their previous game, and both teams have a winning record on the season. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the road team and it has resulted in a 49-21 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -

The Utah Jazz are playing their third game in the last four days. This is the second half of a back-to-back after losing on the road against Indiana last night. Now the Jazz have to travel to Milwaukee for their third consecutive road game to face a Bucks team that has been playing better than their record would indicate.

Milwaukee comes into this matchup having covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games. They may not be winning a lot of games straight up, but they are definitely keeping games close against good teams. They should have no problem picking up a win with the lowly Jazz in town. The Jazz have lost five of their last seven games, and playing on the road again in a back-to-back situation will simply be too much to overcome.

The Jazz are 2-10 against the spread after playing two consecutive road games this season. They are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing without a day of rest. In the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams the home team is 11-2 against the spread. With Milwaukee coming into this matchup with a day of rest and home court advantage they should have no problem picking up a win tonight.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Brooklyn Nets -

The home team has a big advantage in this matchup when the Brooklyn Nets host the Chicago Bulls tonight. Chicago is playing in a tough spot after hosting New York last night, and now they have the play the second half of a back-to-back against this Brooklyn team that has won three of its last four games. The Nets are playing with a day of rest, and they are back on their home court where they will try to revenge a loss against Chicago that opened a seven game road trip that started just over two weeks ago.

Both of these teams have talented defenses, but it is the Nets offense that gives them the advantage in this game. Brooklyn is averaging 98.8 points per game at home this season, which is more than enough to cover such a small spread against a Bulls team that averages 92.1 points per game on the road. Chicago's offensive numbers have come against teams with much softer defenses than what they will face from Brooklyn tonight. The Bulls' opponents have a defensive scoring average over 100 points per game.

Chicago has not played well on the road this year. They have a 15-16 straight up record. The fact that Chicago is surrendering 94.5 points per game on the road while only scoring 92.1 points per game is a good indication that the Bulls are even worse than their losing road record would indicate. This will be Chicago's third game in the last four days, and I don't think they can keep it close against a rested Brooklyn team playing with home court advantage.

4* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Grizzlies -

The Wizards are trying for their longest winning streak in over nine years tonight, but it is a streak they will not be achieving with the Memphis Grizzlies in town. Memphis has been playing incredibly well recently, and with their offense rolling the way it has been the Wizards are simply outmatched. Over their last five games the Grizzlies have averaged over 103 points per game.

Washington's recent run has also come against a fairly soft schedule. They are coming off a road game against one of the worst teams in the league, and I don't give the Wizards a lot of credibility for beating up on teams like Philadelphia, Orlando, Cleveland and New Orleans. Washington has yet to face a defense as talented as the Grizzlies' during their recent run. Memphis comes into this matchup surrendering a mere 92.3 points per game on the road this season.

You should play against home teams with a line of three points or less in a game involving two teams that are +/- three points per game in differential after 42 or more games, and after the home team has allowed 100 points or more in two straight games. This system is 93-48 (66%) against the spread. You should also play on road favorites like Memphis after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games. This system is 209-132 (61%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors -

The Warriors should have no problem picking up a win over Toronto today. Over their last five games they have been playing some outstanding defense surrendering just 97.4 points per game. They are facing a Raptors team that has allowed over 100 points per game over their last five games. Golden State has also dominated the recent head-to-head history between these teams boasting a 3-1 record both straight up and against the spread over the last three seasons.

I don't think home court advantage will be a big factor for Toronto tonight. Golden State is coming into this game with a day of rest, so the impact of traveling will not be as bad as it is when teams are playing in a back-to-back situation. The Raptors have benefited from a soft schedule at home this year, but that changes today. Toronto is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team that has won 60 to 70 percent of its games on the season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Warriors. You should play on road favorites like Golden State when they are averaging over 102 points per game and facing a team allowing 92 to 98 points per game, after a blowout win by 20 points or more. This system has a 48-22 (69%) record against the spread.

4* Vegas Insider on Minnesota T'Wolves -

Minnesota is an easy call in this matchup against Sacramento tonight. The Wolves are coming off three days of rest, while the Kings are playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation after facing the Lakers last night. Minnesota is also the hot team coming into this game. The Wolves have won four of their last five games both straight up and against the spread.

Both of these teams have had their share of issues defensively this season, but over their last five games the Timberwolves have stepped up their level of play on that end of the court. Minnesota has surrendered 98.8 points per game compared to 104.8 points per game allowed over the Kings last five games. The Wolves also have the advantage on the offensive end of the court. They are averaging 105 points per game on the road, to 102.7 points per game at home from Sacramento. The disparity in scoring is even greater when you look at how these teams have performed offensively over their last five games too.

This matchup fits into a system to play on teams like Minnesota that have covered the spread in four of more of their last six games, and they have won 40 to 49 percent of their games and are playing a bad team that has won 25 to 40 percent of its games on the year. This system has a very profitable record of 84-46 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Lay the points with the Wolves tonight because they should pick up an easy win.

3* Total No Brainer on Jazz/Cavaliers UNDER

This total is set quite a bit higher than it should be considering how poorly these teams have looked on the offensive end of the court this season. The Jazz come into this matchup averaging just 92.3 points per game on the road. That has come against opponents allowing an average of over 100 points per game. Cleveland is an above average team in comparison, allowing just 98.2 points per game at home this season.

The Cavaliers have also had a lot of problems getting points on the board. They are averaging 96.9 points per game this season. The Jazz are definitely a soft team defensively, but I think they should be able to slow the Cavaliers down in this matchup. Utah's opponents have an offensive scoring average of 101.7 points per game, and with Cleveland averaging almost five points per game below that number the under shows a lot of value.

This game fits into a very profitable system to play the under. You should take the under when one of the teams (Utah) is coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a road win by 10 points or more. The Jazz picked up a 23 point win at home over Phoenix in their last outing, while the Cavaliers picked up a 10 point road win over Oklahoma City. In this situation the under has a 98-52 (65%) record.

5* Blowout Game of the Week on Warriors -

The New York Knicks are playing in an incredibly difficult spot tonight when they play host to the Golden State Warriors. New York was crushed last night by the Miami Heat, now they have to travel back home for the second half of a back-to-back to take on one of the hottest teams in the league. The Golden State Warriors have won four of their last five games coming into this matchup.

The Knicks look like a team that has thrown in the towel on their season. They have lost 10 of their last 12 games, and they have surrendered 107 points per game over their last five games. The Warriors on the other hand have stepped things up on the defensive end of the court, allowing a mere 95.2 points per game over their last five games. Golden State has had no problem scoring this season with their 103 point per game scoring average, and against a soft defense like the Knicks that number can only get better tonight.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Golden State when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 102 points per game or more, and they are playing against a poor defensive team that is allowing 98 to 102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system has cashed in a 56-23 (71%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Annihilator on Bucks/Pacers UNDER

The Pacers defense has been ridiculously good against division opponents this season. They are surrendering a mere 87.4 points per game in those games. When playing at home Indiana has allowed an average of just 86.3 points per game. Now the Pacers have the luxury of facing a Milwaukee team that only averages 93.3 points per game, which makes the under an easy call in this matchup.

Milwaukee may not have a great record, but they are not a bad team defensively. Against division opponents the Bucks have allowed 99.1 points per game, and simply matching that average makes the under a very attractive play. The under is 22-9 when Milwaukee is a road underdog of 12.5 points or more. I expect to see the Pacers take a big early lead and have a lot of clock killing possessions late in this game that ensure we stay under the total.

This matchup fits into a system that identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have set the total too high because of recent performances rather than how these teams actually match up. You should play the under when the total is 190 to 199.5 points after one of the teams scored 110 points or more in two straight games (Indiana), and they are playing against an opponent that scored 60 points or more in the first half of their last game. This system has a 24-5 (83%) record in favor of the under.

3* Bailout Blowout on Brooklyn Nets +

Portland just played on the road in Denver last night, and now they will host the Nets in the second half of a back-to-back. Brooklyn is coming into this matchup with two full days of rest. The Nets have been playing extremely well recently, picking up wins in six of their last nine games while Portland has been struggling to hover around .500 for the past month.

The Blazers have surrendered 103.8 points per game over their last five games. That should provide a nice scoring boost to the Nets tonight. Meanwhile, Brooklyn has been playing some outstanding defense recently allowing just 95 points per game over their last five games.

Brooklyn is 13-2 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in the last 14 days. They are also 20-8 ATS in road games against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game. Portland on the other hand comes into this matchup with a 15-29 ATS record over the last three seasons after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +

The Phoenix Suns have played soft defense all season. They are allowing 101.9 points per game, and they should give up another big number tonight against the Jazz. The Suns were at home last night in a losing effort against Minnesota, and now they have to play in a back-to-back situation against a rested Jazz team that is coming off a confidence boosting win over Boston in their last outing.

The Utah offense has been on fire recently. Over their last five games the Jazz have averaged 102.4 points per game. While nobody will confuse Utah for a great defensive team, their 100.3 points per game allowed at home is still an advantage over the defensive numbers Phoenix has put up, especially when you consider the fact that Utah's opponents have a slightly higher scoring average than the Suns have faced this year.

This matchup fits into a profitable system to play on the Jazz. You should take home underdogs like Utah when they are well rested, playing five or less games in the last 14 days, and they have a losing record on the season. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the rested team, and it has resulted in a 49-27 (65%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Oklahoma City Thunder -

The Cavaliers look like a team that has thrown in the towel on their season. They have lost three consecutive games, and now have to play on the road against one of the best teams in the league. There is not a lot to motivate Cleveland at this point, so I expect to see the Cavaliers struggle in this matchup with the Thunder.

Oklahoma City is averaging 106.2 points per game at home this season. They should have no problem putting up another huge number against this Cavaliers team that has surrendered 104.4 points per game on the road. Cleveland is also playing in a tough spot after losing at home to Toronto last night and now playing the second half of a back-to-back against one of the league's best teams.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Cavaliers. You should fade teams like Cleveland when they have been outscored by their opponents by three or more points per game, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a matchup allowing 120 points or more. This system is an 88-56 (61%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* NBA Game of the Month on Golden State Warriors -

The Chicago Bulls are in a tough spot tonight after playing on the road against Atlanta yesterday. This will be Chicago's third game in the last four days. Typically the first thing to go for a tired team is its defense, and unfortunately for Chicago, the defense is the only thing that has allowed them to remain competitive this season.

Golden State has been playing extremely well recently. The Warriors have won five of their last six games with the only loss during that stretch coming by a single point against Miami. Over their last five games the Warriors have averaged 102 points per game, while surrendering a mere 96.8 points per game. Golden State's defense should have no problem shutting down this Bulls team that averages just 92.8 points per game.

This matchup fits into a system to fade Chicago. You should play against home teams when the line is three points or less and they are revenging a loss against their opponent, and they are coming off a road win. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have overvalued, and it has resulted in a 90-48 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Chicago Bulls -

The Bulls are the better team, and they are the hot team coming into this matchup with Atlanta. Chicago has won five of its last six games both straight up and against the spread. I look for them to bounce back with a strong performance after losing to Miami in their last outing.

The Hawks defense has been bad all season allowing 101.5 points per game, but they have been especially bad recently allowing 107.8 points per game over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Bulls have surrendered a mere 87 points per game over their last five games. I don't think Chicago will have any problem shutting Atlanta down in this game since the Hawks offense is also in decline compared to their season numbers, averaging just 98.4 points per game the last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Bulls. You should play against home teams with a line under three points when they are revenging a loss to their opponent, and that opponent is coming off a road loss. This system is 141-84 (63%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Dallas Mavericks -

The New York Knicks look like a team that has thrown in the towel on their season. They have lost eight of their last 10 games, and have failed to cover the spread in seven of those 10 matchups. New York has surrendered 106.2 points per game over its last five games which is very telling about their lack of effort recently.

The Mavericks are one of the hottest teams in the league right now having won eight of their last 10 games. They are facing a Knicks team that is 2-10 ATS in home games when facing a non-conference opponent this season. The Knicks are also 9-20 ATS as an underdog, and 1-9 ATS as a home underdog this year. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have proved to be a great team to back when playing on the road. They are 20-10 ATS, and should easily improve on that number today.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Mavericks. You should play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Dallas when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 102 points per game or more and they are playing a poor defensive team that has surrendered 98-102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 55-23 (71%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are one of the hottest teams in the league, and they should pick up a big win at home against Washington today. Cleveland has won six of its last seven games, covering the spread in all seven of those matchups. The Wizards on the other hand are coming into this game having lost five of their last eight games.

A big reason for the Cavaliers recent success has been outstanding play on the defensive end of the court. Over their last five games they have held opponents to just 92.8 points per game. Cleveland has also turned things on offensively, scoring 101.6 points per game during that five game stretch. They should have another big night against the Wizards because Washington will be run down playing in the second half of a back-to-back after hosting New Orleans last night.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Cavaliers. You should play against teams like Washington that are revenging a loss to their opponent when the line is three points or less, and that opponent is coming off a road loss. This system is 228-137 (63%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Main Event on Washington Wizards -

The Washington Wizards are coming off a big road win in their last outing. They have had two days of rest to prepare for this matchup where they will host a Pelicans team that has lost four of its last five games. The Wizards have put up solid numbers at home this season. They are averaging 100.9 points per game, and should have no problem scoring on a New Orleans defense that has allowed 103.1 points per game when playing on the road.

The Pelicans are playing in a very tough spot. This will be their third game in the last four days, and the second half of a back-to-back set of road games. New Orleans has been really struggling recently on the offensive end of the court. Over their last five games they are averaging a mere 92.4 points per game. I don't think the Pelicans can keep this game close given their tough schedule and lack of offense being produced right now.

These teams met last month in New Orleans and it was Washington that left with a six point win. The Pelicans are 0-10 ATS when revenging a straight up loss at home as a favorite. The Wizards have been a great team to back in non-conference matchups over the last two seasons. They have a 33-18 ATS record in those games, and that is a trend that should continue today against the Pelicans.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +

Prior to the All-Star break it appeared that Portland's season was quickly falling apart. The Blazers lost six of their last nine games entering the break. With a chance to regroup Portland was expected to get right back to their winning ways, but that was not the case coming out of the All-Star break. The Blazers were a three point home favorite against the Spurs, and ended up losing that game outright.

Utah comes into this matchup having won three of its last four games. The Jazz will never be mistaken for a playoff contender this year, but I do think they are more than capable of sticking close with the Blazers. Portland got off to a fast start this season, but that quickly earned them a reputation as one of the league's most overrated teams. I think the oddsmakers are still giving the Blazers more credit than they deserve, and that makes the Jazz a solid value play today.

Portland is 2-11 ATS in home games when coming off three or more consecutive losses. They are also 13-24 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games. The Jazz on the other hand come into this matchup with a 66-43 ATS record when coming off two straight games outrebounding opponents by 10 or more boards. Utah is playing quality basketball right now, and I think they will give the Blazers a scare in this matchup.

4* Total Annihilator on Spurs/Suns OVER

There has been no shortage of scoring from both of these teams coming out of the All-Star break. Over their last five games the Spurs have averaged 106.4 points per game. They put up 113 points against the Clippers in their first game following the break, then scored 111 points on Portland in the second half of a back-to-back. The defense has not been great either, allowing 102.6 points per game over their last five.

For the Suns it has been business as usual on offense. They average 107.6 points per game at home this season, and are scoring 107.8 points per game over their last five. The value on the over from Phoenix' side of things comes from the fact that the defense that has allowed 101.8 points per game overall this season is giving up an astonishing 107 points per game over their last five games. Now they will be tasked with facing a great offensive team like the Spurs, which should lead to a lot of points being scored tonight.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play the over. You should take the over when one of the teams (San Antonio) is coming off a win by six points or less, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off two straight wins by six points or less. The Spurs squeaked by Portland in their last outing, and the Suns picked up wins over Denver and Boston by five and six points, respectively. This system is 130-73 (64%) in favor of the over.

4* Non-Conference Game of the Week on Chicago Bulls -

This matchup features two teams that are headed in completely opposite directions. Chicago comes into this game having won five of their last six games, including the last four consecutive, while the Nuggets are trying to avoid a sixth consecutive loss. Denver has now lost seven of its last nine games, eight of those nine also resulting in losses against the spread.

After a slow start to the season many were ready to write the Bulls off. However, their outstanding defensive play gives them a chance against even the best teams in the league. Luckily, tonight they are not facing one of the best teams. Chicago has surrendered a mere 90.1 points per game, and they have the luxury of hosting a Denver team that is suffering through a major scoring slump. The Nuggets are averaging 95.2 points per game over their last five games, while allowing over 118 points per game on the defensive end of the court.

Something is really wrong in Denver right now, and the Nuggets are showing no signs of being able to stop the bleeding anytime soon. The Nuggets are 12-24 ATS when playing their second game in five games over the last two seasons. This is the second half of a back-to-back situation for the Nuggets after playing on the road against Milwaukee last night. The Bulls on the other hand are coming into this game with a day of rest, and with home court advantage I think they make easy work of the Nuggets.

3* No Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers +

The Cavaliers entered the All-Star Break winning four consecutive games, and coming out of the break they are showing no signs of slowing down. Cleveland picked up back-to-back wins over Philadelphia and Orlando in their last two outings, making it six consecutive victories for the Cavaliers. Now they have the luxury of facing a Raptors team that coming off split of back-to-back games coming out of the break.

The Cavaliers are playing great basketball on both ends of the court right now. The defense has been a soft spot for Cleveland this season, but over its past five games the Cavaliers have surrendered a mere 89.8 points per game. The offense is scoring 101.6 points per game during that stretch which has given them a double-digit margin of victory. That puts the Raptors in a very tough spot facing a red hot team like the Cavaliers.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against Toronto. You should fade home favorites when they have won two of their last three games, and they are facing an opponent that has won six or more of their last eight games. This system has a 138-81 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Main Event on Miami Heat +

The Thunder have not played in a week, and now they will be tasked with facing a very motivated Miami Heat team. Miami needs a strong second half performance this season to catch up with the Indiana Pacers as the No. 1 seed in the East. The Heat put on a dominating performance in their first game following the All-Star break, handing the Mavericks an 11-point loss in Dallas.

Miami has an underrated defense, and I like their chances to keep the Thunder in check tonight. The Heat have held opponents to 98.4 points per game on the road this season. The Thunder on the other hand did not play well defensively entering the All-Star break. Oklahoma City was surrendering 99.6 points per game their last five games, which is quite a bit higher than their overall defensive scoring average on the season.

Miami is 8-0 ATS in road games when facing a team that is averaging 103 points per game or more over the last two seasons. They are 36-20 ATS in road games against teams that attempt 18 or more three point shots per game. The Heat are also a great team to back when playing for revenge. They are 19-8 ATS when revenging a same season loss against their opponent, and after losing to the Thunder in the last meeting I like their chances to pick up a win today.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Boston Celtics +

Not only are the Phoenix Suns playing in a back-to-back situation, they are also coming off an overtime game that was played in the mile high altitude in Denver. The Celtics are an easy call in this matchup getting such a large number. Phoenix has struggled defensively at home this year, and given the tough back-to-back situation they are playing in, I think the Celtics will give the Suns a scare tonight.

The Suns are surrendering 102 points per game at home. Their poor defensive play should allow the Celtics to put a number on the board that makes covering an eight point spread a very easy task to accomplish. Boston will be well prepared for this matchup since it is their first game coming out of the All-Star break. That extra rest will be a big advantage for tonight's game.

In head-to-head matchups between these teams the road team has a 13-6 ATS record in the last 19 meetings. The Celtics have an 8-3 ATS record against Pacific division teams, and a 6-2 ATS record when playing with three or more days of rest. The Suns lost three of their last four games prior to the break, and they struggled to squeak past the Nuggets last night. Meanwhile, the Celtics won four of their last six entering the break, and I think they play a close game with the Suns tonight.

4* Heavy Hitter on Chicago Bulls +

Toronto is playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation after playing on the road against Washington last night. Playing on back-to-back nights is hard enough on its own, but facing a solid defense like the Bulls should be even harder to overcome. Chicago caught fire at the right time winning four of their last five games entering the All-Star break, and I like their chances to carry that momentum forward for the second half of the season.

The Bulls may not score a lot of points, but they make up for their lack of offense with one of the best defenses in the league. They have held opponents to a mere 92.3 points per game this season, and over their past five games the Bulls have done even better allowing just 88.2 points per game. Chicago has had plenty of time to prepare for this matchup since this is their first game out of the All-Star break.

You should play on teams like Chicago when the line is three points or less and they are revenging a loss as a home favorite, and they are extremely well rested playing three or less games in the last 10 days. This system has a 39-15 (72%) record against the spread. The Raptors may have won the last meeting, but Chicago is playing like a completely different team in the New Year, and I like their chances to pick up close win on the road in this matchup.

5* Total No Brainer on Magic/Cavaliers OVER

This matchup features two very poor defensive teams, and two offenses that have the ability to catch fire. The value in this matchup is clearly going to be on the over. Orlando is surrendering 102.3 points per game on the road this season. The Cavaliers have allowed an average of 102 points per game overall. Neither of these teams has done a lot of scoring this year, and I think that is the biggest reason for such a low total. That will change tonight since the competition is soft both ways.

For a tired team the first thing to go is usually the defense. The Cavaliers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation. I expect their defense to be even worse than normal for this game. Orlando is also playing in a back-to-back after losing on the road against Milwaukee last night in a game they surrendered 104 points.

The Cavaliers have a history of going over the total against Southeast division teams. The over has a 5-1 record in their last six games against that division, and it is 11-3 in Cleveland's last 14 games against a team with a losing record. For Orlando, the over is 43-26 the last three seasons when they are revenging a road loss to their opponent. With two soft defenses playing in a tough back-to-back situation, I expect to see a lot of points going on the board tonight.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Cleveland Cavaliers -

The Cavaliers should come out of the All-Star break with a strong performance against the 76ers. Cleveland was on the verge of a turnaround going into the break, picking up four consecutive upset wins as an underdog. Now, with plenty of rest, they face one of the leagues worst teams. The 76ers lost eight consecutive games going into the break, and they were playing like a team that has completely given up on the season.

Over the last five games the Cavaliers have averaged 103.2 points per game. That trend should continue tonight against a 76ers defense that is surrendering an average of 110.7 points per game at home. Over Philadelphia's last five games, it surrendered a whopping 115.4 points per game. These teams met last month in Cleveland, and the Cavaliers picked up an 18 point win. A change in venue will not be enough to change the fortunes of the 76ers.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the 76ers. You should fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Philadelphia after six or more consecutive losses, when they are playing in the second half of the season. This system has a 37-13 (74%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Annihilator on Nets/Bulls UNDER

I like this matchup to easily stay under the posted total. Both of these teams have been solid on defense this season. The Bulls have surrendered a mere 90.7 points per game, while the Nets have held opponents below their scoring averages at 99.7 points per game. I don't expect Brooklyn to have any problem improving on that number tonight since they are up against a Chicago team that only averages 92.3 points per game.

This is the last game before the All-Star break, and both of these teams need a win. I think they will step up their defensive efforts today and that will keep this game under the total. Brooklyn has been playing great defense recently, allowing 94.4 points per game over their last five games. Just like Chicago, the Nets are not a high scoring team. They are averaging 96.3 points per game on the road this year, and they will struggle to match that number tonight since Chicago will be one of the best defensive teams they have seen.

The under is 23-8 when Chicago is playing against a team with a losing record this season. The under is also 12-2 when the Bulls are playing at home and the total has been set between 180-189.5 points. In their last seven games against Atlantic division teams the under has a 7-0 record for Chicago. With Both teams struggling to score points this season, and both teams playing great defense right now the under is an easy call in this matchup.

5* NBA First Half Game of the Year on Clippers -

The Portland Trailblazers are falling apart, and I think they are already looking forward to regrouping during the All-Star break. The Blazers have lost five of their last eight games, and they have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games. Portland's defense has always been soft, but they have been saved by an offense averaging close to 108 points per game. They seem to have lost the scoring touch, failing to reach triple digits in five of their last eight games.

The Clippers are coming off impressive back-to-back wins at home. They have had no problem scoring points recently, averaging 114 points per game over their last five games. The Clippers have been dangerously good at home all season, posting a 22-4 record. With Portland struggling like they have been, I just don't see how the Blazers can come into Los Angeles and play a close game against one of the best teams in the league.

This matchup fits into a profitable system backing the Clippers. You should play on a team averaging 102 points per game or more like Los Angeles when they have scored 100 points or more in four straight games, and they are playing a horrible defensive team that is allowing over 102 points per game on the season. This system has a 99-62 (62%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -

The Rockets are one of the hottest teams in the league coming into the All-Star break. They have won six consecutive games, covering the spread in five of those six. Houston has been a high scoring team all season, but over their last five games the Rockets have really stepped up their level of play on the offensive end of the court by averaging an impressive 110.6 points pr game. Meanwhile, the Wizards come into this matchup with a defense that is surrendering 101.2 points per game over their last five games.

Washington is playing in a very tough spot tonight. They are in the second half of a back-to-back after losing on the road against Memphis last night. Houston on the other hand is playing with a day of rest. The Rockets have a long standing history of dominating the Wizards. In head-to-head matchups Houston is 25-8 straight up since 1996, and they are 4-1 over the last three seasons. When playing in Houston the Rockets are 10-6 against the spread since 1996.

This matchup fits into a system hitting a high win percentage when backing the home team. You should play on home teams like Houston after five or more consecutive wins when they have won 60 to 75 percent of their games on the season, and they are facing an opponent that has won 40 to 49 percent of their games. This system is 61-27 (69%) against the spread.

3* Blowout on Detroit Pistons -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Cavaliers are a bad team, and they are getting too much credit from the oddsmakers thanks to a three game win streak over a very soft stretch of opponents. Detroit is also riding a three game win streak, which includes an upset win as an underdog over San Antonio in their last game.

I think the Cavaliers will be looking forward to the All-Star break where they can regroup and try to turn their season around. Against division opponents Cleveland has averaged a mere 89.1 points per game. The Cavaliers defense has been horrible on the road this year surrendering 106 points per game. Cleveland will be in for a long night against this Pistons team that is scoring 101.6 points per game at home.

You should play on teams like Detroit that have covered the spread in five of their last six games and have won 40 to 49 percent of their games on the season, when they are playing against an opponent that has won only 25 to 40 percent of their games. This system has an 83-45 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Orlando Magic +

The Magic are playing well right now as they look for their fourth consecutive win tonight when they face the Memphis Grizzlies. Orlando's recent three game win streak has come against a very tough schedule too. They have wins over Oklahoma City and Indiana during that stretch and they will be playing on two days of rest for today's game.

The Grizzlies are in a tough spot tonight. They are playing the second half of a back-to-back, squeaking by Washington last night and having to head south to play on the road against Orlando tonight. Memphis is really struggling on offense recently, and I think it will cost them against this red hot Magic team. The Grizzlies are averaging 85.4 points per game over their last five games.

You should play against favorites like Memphis when they are allowing 92-98 points per game and coming off three straight games where both teams scored 95 points or less, and they are playing against a team allowing 98-102 points per game after 42 or more game in the season. This system identifies teams that are being overvalued, and it has resulted in a 28-7 (80%) record against the spread.

4* Western Conference Game of the Week on Utah +

The Jazz are coming off a confidence boosting win over Miami in a game that saw them listed as a 9.5 point underdog. They have had two days to prepare for the Lakers, and I think the oddsmakers have favored the wrong team in this matchup. The Lakers have lost eight of their last 10 games, and they are showing no signs of life after losing at home to Chicago in their last outing.

The Lakers defense has been a a major issue this season. They have surrendered an average of 105.8 points per game. While the Jazz may not typically be a high scoring team, I don't think they will have any problem scoring points against Los Angeles tonight. Defensively Utah will have a big advantage. Over their last five games the Jazz have surrendered a mere 96.6 points per game.

This matchup fits into a system to play on road teams with a line of three points or less when they are well rested, playing six or less games in 14 days, and they have won 25 to 40 percent of their games on the season and are facing a team with a losing record. This system identifies road teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers, and it has resulted in an 83-45 (65%) record against the spread.

3* Total Dominator on Mavericks/Bobcats UNDER

This total is simply too high, which makes the under a strong value play. The Bobcats may not have a great record, but that has not been because of a lack of defensive talent. They are playing at home, and should easily control the pace of this game. Charlotte has held opponents to 94.6 points per game at home this season, while scoring a mere 92.8 points in those games.

Dallas has been a soft team defensively at times, but that does not hurt us in this matchup tonight. The Bobcats opponents have a defensive scoring average over 100 points per game this year, yet they are still averaging well under 95 points per game. Also, the Mavericks have been playing a lot better defensively in recent weeks. Over their past five games Dallas has held its opponents to 95.6 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable indicating this should be a low scoring game. You should play the under when one team (Dallas) has beaten the spread by 36 points or more in their last five games, and they have won 51 to 60 percent of their games on the season and are playing against a team with a losing record. Over the last five seasons the under is 54-34 (61%) in this situation.

4* Blowout of the Week on Houston -

Minnesota is suffering from several key injuries right now, and it is showing in their performance on the court. The Wolves have lost three consecutive games coming into tonight's matchup with the Houston Rockets. Meanwhile, Houston comes into this matchup riding a five game win streak. After playing a much closer game than they should have against Milwaukee, I look for the Rockets to play a complete game today.

The injury issues for Minnesota have had a huge impact on their already soft defense. The Wolves are surrendering 108 points per game over their last five games, and their poor defensive play will cost them dearly against a high scoring team like Houston. The Rockets average 104.1 points per game on the road this season, and they are averaging 108.6 points per game over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Wolves. You should fade a home team like Minnesota when they are an extremely tired team that is playing its fifth game in the last seven days. This system has a 143-85 (63%) record against the spread. This is Houston's third game in the past seven days, and since they are well rested and facing a battered Minnesota lineup I like the Rockets to win this game in a blowout.

3* No Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -

Brooklyn is an easy call at home when they host a Pelicans team that is 9-15 on the road this season. The Nets have really turned their season around since the New Year, and I don't think they will have any problem covering such a small number against New Orleans today. The Nets are 8-2 at home in 2014.

The Nets should easily shut down the Pelicans offense today. Over their last five games the Pelicans have averaged a mere 92.6 points per game. Brooklyn on the other hand is coming into this matchup averaging 99.4 points per game over their last five games. The Pelicans have a history of struggling against good three point shooting teams. They are 17-32 against the spread when facing a team making 36 percent or more of their attempts. Brooklyn is shooting just over 37 percent from beyond the arch this season.

The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against a team with a winning record at home. Brooklyn is coming into this game with a 7-1 ATS record in their last eight games when playing on one day of rest. The Nets have also dominated the head-to-head series between these teams with a 6-2 ATS record in the last eight meetings. They are 5-1 ATS in the last six games when the Nets are playing at home.

3* No Doubt Rout on Portland Blazers -

We are getting a lot of value with Portland today thanks to a less than impressive run recently. However, when you look at Portland's schedule during those games it is easy to see why they have been hovering around .500 over their last eight games. They took the Indiana Pacers to overtime in their last outing, and I think facing a soft defense like Minnesota's will be a welcome site for Portland.

Minnesota is surrendering 101.6 points per game this season. That has come against opponents averaging 100.9 points per game. In today's matchup they host a Portland team that is averaging 107.6 points per game on the road. The Trailblazers have averaged 109.8 points per game against division opponents, and I don't think the Timberwolves will be able to slow them down today.

You should play against home teams like Minnesota when they are playing on back-to-back days and trying to revenge a loss where their opponent scored 110 points or more in the last meeting. The last time these teams met the Blazers put up 115 points and walked away with a double-digit win. This system has a 95-47 (67%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.