3* NBA Total Annihilator on Bulls/Magic UNDER

These two teams combined for 235 points at Chicago back on Jan. 12 and I believe it has forced the books to overreact and set this total a lot higher than what it should be. Keep in mind that the total in the previous contest was just 190.

Chicago is coming in off an impressive 107-72 win at New Orleans last night, snapping their 3-game losing streak. While the Bulls will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, Jimmy Butler was the only player to play more than 30 minutes (34). Chicago has some revenge on their minds against the Magic and I look for them to come out motivated defensively in this one. 

Orlando rallied to beat the Lakers 103-97 in their first game after firing their head coach and held LA to a mere 40.2% shooting. It was the first time in 13 games that the Magic held an opponent under 45%. I look for them to come out with another strong defensive effort in this one.

UNDER is 32-17 over the last 3 seasons when the Bulls are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, 13-3 in Chicago's last 16 road games off a win by 10+ points and 12-3 in the Magic's last 15 after a win by 6-points or less. These add up to form a strong 71% (57-23) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Hornets -

The Hornets are quietly playing some of their best basketball of the season and I look for them to have no problem disposing of the 76ers by double-digits tonight. Charlotte has won 12 of their last 15 overall and have already knocked off Philadelphia twice this season, including a 109-91 win on the road back on Dec. 19.

One of the big keys here is we are catching the 76ers in the 2nd game of back-to-back and without their best offensive player in Michael Carter-Williams. It's been hard enough for Philadelphia to score at full strength and it figures to be a huge challenge tonight. Charlotte is only giving up 85.4 ppg over their last 5 contests.

The Hornets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 following a ATS win last time out, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 off a SU win, 15-5-3 ATS in their last 23 road games against a team with a losing home record and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 78% (39-11) system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Wizards -

It's been a miserable stretch here for the Wizards, while Brooklyn comes in having won 3 straight. I believe this has Washington undervalued at home. The Wizards aren't going to take this game lightly, as they are going to come out extremely motivated to snap their current 5-game losing streak.

Brooklyn on the other hand is in a bad spot here. The Nets just got done playing last night at home against rival New York. Not only will Brooklyn be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road, but this will be their 3rd game in the last 5 days.

Brooklyn is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a SU win and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 when playing on no rest. Adding to this is a strong system backing a fade of the Nets. Teams revenging a straight up loss against an opponent off an upset loss to a division rival are 43-79 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Jazz +

The Suns come into this contest riding a season worst 3-game losing streak and the perception is that they are going to bounce back at home against the Jazz. I don't think that will be the case at all. While Utah has last 4 of their last 5, they have been extremely competitive during this stretch against some of the elite teams in the Western Conference. The Jazz lost by 5-points to the Clippers, upset the Warriors 110-100, lost a heartbreaker to Portland 102-103 and held their own in a 10-point loss to the Grizzlies.

One of things that you have to like about getting points with Utah in this matchup, is the fact that they won 118-91 at home against Phoenix back on Nov. 1. It was the Jazz's 3rd straight win in the series, which tells us they are a bad matchup for the Suns.

Home teams revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points are 48-88 ATS when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back over the last 5 seasons.

Utah is 33-16 ATS in their last 49 road games in the 2nd half of the season against terrible defensive teams that are allowing 103+ points/game, 13-1 ATS in their last 14 road games after two or more consecutive overs and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games after allowing 100+ in 3 straight games. These trends combine to form a 77% (57-17) system in favor of the Jazz. Take Utah!

4* 76ers/Knicks Atlantic Game of the Week on 76ers +

The 76ers are quietly playing some of their best basketball of the season and I think we are getting some great value here. Philadelphia has won 3 of their last 5, including a 105-98 win at home against the Nuggets last time out.

Boston has won 2 straight, but were fortunate to escape with a 104-100 win at home against the Nuggets and the other came against the struggling Knicks. The Celtics aren't a good enough team to be laying this many points, especially in a tough scheduling spot that has them playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Boston could also have a difficult time taking the 76ers seriously, as they already won by 11 at Philadelphia and 18 at home in the two previous matchups this season.

The 76ers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played on Friday. Celtics are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games against teams who make 6 or more 3-point shots/game and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 at home with a total of 195 to 199.5 points. These trends combine to form a 73% (47-17) system in favor of the 76ers. Take Philadelphia!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Pacers/Cavs UNDER

I'm expecting a much lower scoring game than what the books are anticipating with this total. Cleveland comes in off an impressive offensive performance against the Clippers, but I just don't see them coming out with that same level of intensity offensively on the road against a bad team like the Pacers in the second game of a back-to-back set.

Indiana knows that their only chance of winning this game is to slow down the tempo and really turn up the energy defensively. The Pacers have done a pretty good job of that at home, where they are holding opponents to just 96.3 ppg on the season.

On the flip side of this, Indiana figures to have a difficult time scoring against a Cavaliers defense that is allowing just 90.4 ppg in their last 5. Adding to this is the fact Cleveland hasn't allowed 100 points in 10 straight and should have no problem slowing down a Pacers offense that is only averaging 95.5 ppg at home.

UNDER is 11-2 in the Pacers 13 home games this season against teams who are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers/game, 10-1 in the Cavaliers last 11 road games against teams outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, 7-1 in Cleveland's last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record and 22-4 in their last 26 against an opponent that allowed 100 or more in their last game. These trends combine to form a 86% (50-8) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Southeast Division Game of the Month on Wizards +

The Wizards are coming into this contest having lost 4 straight and have failed to cover the number in each of their last 8 games. That includes a 88-92 loss at home to Hornets on Monday. Getting back in the win column combined with revenge against Charlotte, gives us confidence that we will get Washington's best effort in this one.

While the Hornets have gone an impressive 11-3 over their last 14 games, they are playing without star point guard and leading scorer Kemba Walker. While Charlotte defeated the Wizards without Walker and are 5-1 without him, those other 4 wins have come against the likes of the Nuggets, Knicks, Timberwolves and Pacers.

Wizards are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games after playing their last contest as an underdog, while the Hornets are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Adding to this is a strong system. Road teams that are revenging a home loss against an opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 70-35 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Nuggets +

It's been a rough stretch for Denver, who has lost 10 of their last 11, which includes an ugly 98-105 loss at Philadelphia last night. Boston on the other hand comes in off a 108-97 win at New York. First instinct would be to back the Celtics laying just 3-points at home, but I think the books are setting a big trap here.

Boston has won consecutive games just once since the middle of December and are just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 following a SU win by more than 10-points. It's also worth noting that the Celtics have really struggled at home of late. Boston has last 4 straight at the Garden and 7 of their last 9 overall.

Denver is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half, while The Celtics are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games against teams who make 6 or more 3-pointers per game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road teams that are allowing 103+ ppg after trailing in their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 94-41 ATS since 1996. That's a 70% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Nuggets/Celtics OVER

I'm not expecting a whole lot of defense to be played in this one. Both the Celtics and Nuggets will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and not a whole lot of motivation here given how poorly these two teams have been playing of late. Denver is just 1-10 in their last 11 games, while the Celtics are a 7-16 in their last 23.

Both teams come in off less than impressive efforts defensively. The Celtics allowed New York to score 97 points on 49.4% shooting last night, while Denver allowed the 76ers lackluster offense to put up 105 points. The Nuggets also gave up 104 in their previous game against the offensively challenged Hornets.

OVER is 26-13 in the Nuggets last 39 revenging a same season loss, 21-9 in their last 30 road games after playing two straight games as a favorite and 6-1 in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 19-9 in the Celtics last 28 home games against poor pressure defensive teams (14 or less turnovers/game), 16-7-1 in their last 24 following a SU win and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. OVER is 50-22 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 to 209.5 points that features two bad teams (25% to 40%) facing off in the 2nd half of the season. That's a 69% system. Take the OVER!

3* NBA Late Night BAILOUT on Trail Blazers -

This is a perfect spot to back the Trail Blazers at home. Portland comes in having lost 3 straight and 8 of 10 overall, but the thing to keep in mind is that 6 of those 8 losses have come on the road and another came at home against the Clippers. Portland is 20-5 at home on the season and we can expect one of the Blazers best efforts of the season tonight.

Utah comes in off an impressive 110-100 win at home over the Warriors. While to some that might look like a win to build off of, I think the Jazz are in for a letdown here after that big upset. This will be Utah's first road game in over 10 days and it's well known that this is a team that struggles on the road. Utah is just 36-60 (38%) ATS in their last 96 road games after playing 3 or more straight games at home.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Jazz. Underdogs off an upset win as an underdog by 10 or more points against an opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are 7-24 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Timberwolves +

The Timberwolves are showing some great value here as a double-digit underdog against the Mavericks. Dallas is simply being overvalued due to the fact that they come in off back-to-back blowout wins over the Heat (93-72) and Magic (108-93), along with a recent 98-75 win at Minnesota back on Jan. 21.

The thing to keep in mind is that since that ugly loss at home to the Mavericks, Minnesota has welcomed the return of Kevin Martin and are expected to get back starting point guard Ricky Rubio tonight. Dallas on the other hand will be without their starting point guard in Rajon Rondo.

I look for the Mavericks to struggle to come out with intensity needed to turn this one into a rout, especially given how easily they beat the Timberwolves in the last meeting and the fact that they have a huge game on deck Wednesday at Golden State that will be televised on ESPN.

Minnesota is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 off a double-digit loss at home and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Dallas on the other hand is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record and 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 against the Western Conference.

Adding to this is a great system backing a fade of Dallas. Favorites of 10 or more who have gone under the total by 54 points or more in their last 10 games are 8-29 ATS in the month of February since 1996. That's a 78% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Raptors/Bucks OVER

I'm expecting a very high scoring game tonight between the Bucks and Raptors. Toronto comes in averaging 116.8 ppg over their last 5 contests, while Milwaukee is averaging a respectable 103.0 ppg over their last 5 outings.

In the previous meeting this season at Toronto in the series, these two combined for 207 points with the Bucks only managing 83 points on 36.5% shooting. I look for Milwaukee to provide a lot more offense this time, which should have this one flying well over the mark set by the books. Adding to this is the fact that the OVER is 8-0 in the Bucks last 8 trips to Toronto.

This is also a solid spot to back the OVER with the Raptors off back-to-back road wins by 5 points or less. Teams in this spot have seen the OVER go 118-65 (65%) since 1996.

The OVER is 14-3 in the Bucks last 17 games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field, 14-4 in their last 18 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 9 points and 11-2 in their last 13 when they come in having won 4 of 5. OVER is also 11-2 in Raptors last 13 after allowing 105+ in 2 straight games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU win. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (55-11) system. Take the OVER!

3* Heat/Celtics NBA Main Event on Heat +

I look for the Heat to bounce back from a difficult home loss to the Mavericks. Miami allowed Dallas to go on a 37-2 run in the 2nd half to erase a 16-point deficit. There's no way that loss has sat well with the Heat players and I look for them to take out their frustration on the Celtics.

Boston has lost 2 straight and are just 6-14 in their last 20. The Celtics are only 9-14 at home compared to 7-15 on the road and 1-5 SU in their last 6 at home. Miami on the other hand has been a much better road team than they have at home. The Heat are 12-11 away from home, compared to 8-15 on the road.

While Dwayne Wade won't be available, there's a good chance that Luol Deng will return to the Heat. However, the real key player in this matchup is emerging big man Hassan Whiteside, who figures to have a field day against a Celtics starting 5 that doesn't start anyone over 6'9 and will be without one of their top scorers in reserve Kelly Olynyk.

Boston is just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games after dropping 3 of their last 4 and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games after playing their last game as an underdog. Miami on the other hand is 34-19 ATS in their last 53 road games versus poor defensive teams that are allowing 99+ ppg.

We also have a proven long-term system backing a fade of the Celtics. Teams revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a favorite, that are off a cover where they lost outright as an underdog are just 157-246 since 1996. That's a 61% system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!

3* Clippers/Spurs NBA Late Night Bailout on Spurs -

I think we are going to some great value here with the Spurs. San Antonio has won 3 straight and 7 of their last 8 overall, but are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games. I believe their lackluster ATS run of late, combined with a big time opponent in the Clippers, has provided with a golden spot to take the Spurs at home. 

San Antonio is finally starting to get healthy and I look for this team to go a big run here leading up to the All-Star break. The Clippers on the other hand are coming off a lackluster performance on the road against the Pelicans, which saw them lose 103-108 as a 8-point favorite.

It's also worth noting that this is a bad scheduling spot for LA, who is not only playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but will be playing their 3rd straight road game in the span of just 4 days. Spurs on the other hand will be playing just 2nd game in the last 6 days.

San Antonio is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games played in the 2nd half of the season against a team that's outscoring opponents by 3+ ppg, while the Clippers are just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 after allowing 100+ in their last game, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 on the road and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when playing on no rest. These trends combine to form a 79% (45-12) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

4* Raptors/Wizards NBA Vegas Insider on Wizards -

The Wizards are showing some great value here as a mere 4-point home dog, largely due to the fact that the Raptors come in getting way to much respect here after winning 5 straight. The key thing here is that this is an absolute brutal spot for Toronto, who will not only being playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but their 4th in the last 5 days.

The Wizards are 18-6 at home this season, where they outscoring opponents by 7 ppg (101.9 to 94.9). I believe Washington's strong home defense will be the difference in this one, as the Raptors are giving up 105.3 ppg on the road. Toronto simply isn't going to have the energy to keep up offensively with what their defense is going to allow.

It's also worth noting that the Wizards will be out for revenge from an ugly 84-103 loss at Toronto back on Nov. 7. Washington is 27-14 ATS in their last 41 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points. The Wizards are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, while Toronto is 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games. These last two trends combine to give us a strong 78% (18-5) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Mavericks -

This is the perfect spot to back Dallas, as I look for them to come out with one of their best performances of the season. The Mavericks have dropped a season-high 4 straight and questions are coming up whether the Rondo trade was a bad move. Getting back in the win column and proving their doubters wrong would have been plenty of motivation, but Dallas will also be playing with revenge from a 96-105 home loss to Miami back on Nov. 9.

In that previous loss to the Heat earlier this season, Miami got 30-points from Luol Deng and 20 from Dwayne Wade, who went a combined 22 of 37 (59%) from the field. Unfortunately for the Heat, both Wade and Deng will be sitting out this one with injuries, which is going to allow Dallas to focus their attention on stopping Bosh and thus making it extremely difficult for the Heat to generate any offense.

Another thing to keep in mind, is that Dallas has won more games on the road (16) than they have at home (14), while the Heat are the exact opposite. Miami is 8-14 at home, compared to 12-9 on the road.

The Mavericks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the Eastern Conference and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus teams that have won fewer than 40% of their home games. Miami on the other hand is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100+ in their last game, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against the Western Conference's Southwest division and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their road games.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Road Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have been beaten by the spread by 24 or more combined points in their last 3 games against an opponent that's gone under the total by 54 or more combined points in their last 10 are 31-8 ATS since 1996. That's a dynamite 80% system in favor of the Mavericks. Take Dallas!

4* Timberwolves/76ers NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Timberwolves -

Minnesota snapped a 5-game losing streak in an impressive 110-98 home win over the Celtics on Wednesday and I look for the Timberwolves to carry over that momentum with another easy win against the 76ers. What a lot of people are overlooking with Minnesota, is the fact that they are starting to get healthy, as both Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin have both returned from injury. 

One of the big reasons that we are getting solid value here with Minnesota, is the fact that the 76ers come in off a 86-69 win over the Pistons. The thing to keep in mind with that victory is Detroit has been on a free fall since losing Brandon Jennings and were playing in an absolutely brutal spot. The Pistons not only were in the second game of a back-to-back, but they were also playing their 4th overall in 5 days.

Prior to that win, Philadelphia had lost 8 of their previous 9 with all 8 losses coming by at least 5 points. The 76ers are not any good and I look for them to struggle to keep this one competitive. While these two teams have similar records, you have to keep in mind that Minnesota plays in the much tougher conference and have had most of their key guys out with injury.

Adding to all of this is a great system. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are an average offensive team (92-98 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg), following a win by 10+ points are 30-10 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 75% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

4* Nuggets/Grizzlies TNT Total Annihilator on UNDER

I'm expecting a low scoring contest tonight between the Nuggets and Grizzlies. Memphis has surrendered 100+ points just once in their last 8 games and during this stretch are holding opponents to just 92.3 ppg. Denver has eclipsed the century mark just once in their last 4 games and are only averaging 98.4 ppg on the road.

The Nuggets come in off a strong defensive effort last night in a 93-85 win at New Orleans and I look for them to bring that same intensity defensively against the Grizzlies, especially with this being a nationally televised game on TNT. This should also have Memphis bringing their "A" game defensively.

However, the big key here is pace. The Grizzlies come in ranked 26th in the league with a pace of 94.2. While Denver is 5th at 98.3, the Nuggets won't be playing up to their normal tempo. Partly due to Memphis being able to control the pace at home and mainly due to Denver playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 4th in 5 days overall.

UNDER is 19-6 in the Grizzlies last 25 off a division road win, 20-8 in their last 28 after a blowout win by 15+ points and 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a road winning % of less than 40%. UNDER is also 14-4-1 in Nuggets last 19 when their opponent scores 100+ in their previous game, 6-1 in their last 7 games played on Thursday and 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 78% (68-19) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month on Rockets -

The Rockets are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Mavericks. Not only is Dallas in the midst of a minor slump with 3 straight losses, the Mavericks are in an awful scheduling spot, as they are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. Dallas is 2-6 ATS when playing on 0 rest and just 1-8 ATS this season when playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Rockets already knocked off Dallas at home 95-92 back on Nov. 22 and have won 3 of their last 4 at home against the Mavericks. Dallas is also a mere 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 against the Western Conference and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a division opponent.

It's important to note that last night the Mavericks fell 90-109 at home to the Grizzlies as a 6-point favorite, as that sets up a great system to go against Dallas. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning record on the season, who are off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more points and up against a team with a winning record are just 9-30 ATS since 1996. That's a 77% long-term system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!

3* NBA Total Dominator on Pistons/76ers UNDER

The 76ers have seen each of their last 5 and 12 of their last 13 finish UNDER the total and I'm expecting that trend to continue tonight against the Pistons. Philadelphia comes in averaging a horrific 89.5 ppg and it doesn't figure to get any better with leading scorer Tony Wroten out with a torn ACL and second leading score Michael Carter-Williams questionable with the flu.

While the Pistons have allowed 100+ in each of their last 4 games, they are certainly capable of keeping this 76ers offense in check. On top of this, Detroit doesn't figure to be playing up to their typical pace. The Pistons will not only be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but will be playing their 4th game in the last 5 days. It's also worth noting that Detroit is without one of their top offensive playmakers in Brandon Jennings, who was recently lost for the year with a torn Achilles.

UNDER is 7-1 in the Pistons last 8 games when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4 and 0-3 this season when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days. UNDER is also 9-2 in 76ers last 11 after 2 straight games where they shot 39% or worse and 14-4 in their last 18 revenging a same season loss to an opponent. These trends combine to form a 83% (33-7) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Trail Blazers/Cavaliers NBA Vegas Insider on Trail Blazers +

It might seem like a bad idea to go against the Cavaliers given their recent form, but I think this is the perfect spot to fade Cleveland. The Trail Blazers come into this contest off a full 3-days of rest, while the Cavaliers will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 3rd in the last 4 days overall.

Adding to the poor scheduling spot for Cleveland, is the fact that the Cavaliers are not a deep team. Four of their five starters played at least 32 minutes in last night's win over the Pistons, including 42 from point guard Kyrie Irving, who also played 41 minutes in Sunday's game against Cleveland.

I look for a well rested Blazers team to take advantage of the tired legs of the Cavs and not only cover, but potentially win this game outright. Keep in mind that Portland had their way at home against Cleveland in a 101-82 home win back on Nov. 4.

Cavaliers are just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days and a mere 5-13 ATS this season when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. Portland on the other hand is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 off an upset win as an underdog.

We also have a strong system in play. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are solid defensive team (41.5% to 43.5% shooting) against a poor defensive team (45.5% to 47.5%) are 40-14 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 74% system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Bucks +

The Heat come into this game off an impressive 96-84 win at Chicago on Sunday as a 7.5-point underdog and I believe it has Miami overvalued at home. The thing you have to keep in mind with the Heat, is that they are a much better road team than they are home. Miami is just 8-13 SU and 8-13 ATS at AmericanAirlines Arena.

The Bucks have been one of the surprise teams early on and come in having covered 2 straight. They rolled over the Pistons 101-86 at home on Saturday and kept it respectable in a 95-101 loss at San Antonio as a 11.5-point underdog. Milwaukee already won at Miami 91-84 back on Nov. 16 and followed that up with a 109-85 home win over the Heat on Dec. 5. The Bucks clearly matchup well with Miami and I fully expect them to win this game outright.

Milwaukee is 17-5 ATS this season when playing against a team with a losing record, 14-4 ATS in their last 18 against teams who are called for 18 or less fouls/game and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game. Heat are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-pointers/game and 4-15 ATS in their last 19 versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play, as road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a solid defensive team (41.5% to 43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5% to 47.5%) are 40-14 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 74% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Raptors -

The Raptors aren't getting the same respect that they were just a month ago. Toronto has gone just 5-8 since opening the season 24-7 and during this recent downfall have gone a mere 2-10-1 ATS. I believe it has the Raptors extremely undervalued as a small road favorite against the Pacers.

Indiana comes in off an impressive 106-99 win at Orlando, which saw them shoot a season-best 51.8% from the field. I'm not buying that as anything more than taking advantage of a horrible Magic defense. The Pacers are only shooting 42.9% from the field on the season against opponents that on average have allowed 45.1% shooting. Prior to their hot shooting against Orlando, Indiana had dropped 7 straight and I expect them to return to their losing ways tonight.

Indiana is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100+ points last time out. The Pacers are also a dismal 0-7 ATS this season at home when revenging a loss to an opponent (lost 94-106 at Toronto on Dec. 12). Toronto is 21-10 ATS over the last 2 seasons when playing against a team that's won only 25% to 40% of their games and 21-4 ATS in their last 25 versus strong rebounding teams that are outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game. These trends combine to form a DYNAMITE 80% (60-15) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Pacers/Magic UNDER

The books have completely missed the mark on this one. The Magic come into this game ranked 24th in scoring at 95.7 ppg and the Pacers are 27th at 94.7 ppg. We are simply getting an inflated total here due to Orlando having gone OVER the total in each of their last 7 games, including each of their last two with totals of 209 and 206.5.

You have to go all the way back to March of 2010 to find the last time these two teams played a game with a combined score of at least 209 points. Each of their last 20 games in the series have finished below the mark set for this game, including an earlier matchup this season which saw a combined score of just 181 points.

UNDER is 13-4 in the Magic's last 17 games played on Sunday and 87-2 in their last 10 against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 14-3-1 in the Pacers' last 18 games against a team with a losing record. 

Adding to all of this a strong system. UNDER is 24-5 since 1996 in games with a total of 200 or more points when you have an average team that is +/- 3 ppg differential (Pacers) against a poor team with a -3 to -7 ppg differential, that trailed in their last 2 games by 10 or more at the half. That's a 83% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

4* Heat/Bulls NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER

Just as I expected, the Bulls carried over the momentum from their 104-81 blowout win at home of the Spurs on Thursday with a 102-98 win at Dallas the next night. I look for Chicago to maintain their renewed focus on the defensive end against the Heat, which should have this game finishing well below the mark.

Slowing down Miami doesn't figure to be too difficult a task, as the Heat have failed scored fewer than 90 points in each of their last 3 games and have topped 100 just once in their last 11 games. It's also worth noting that Miami plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league and Chicago doesn't figure to be pushing the tempo here in what will be their 3rd game in 4 days.

These two teams played back in the middle of December and combined for just 168 points in a 93-75 Bulls wins at Miami. It was the third straight in the series that finished with 183 or less combined score.

UNDER is a perfect 10-0 in the Heat's 10 games played in the month of January and 13-4 in their last 17 games played as a road underdog. UNDER is also 15-4 in the Bulls last 19 home games with a total set between 185 and 189.5 points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (38-8) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Pistons/Bucks NBA Heavy Hitter on Pistons -

Detroit has quietly been playing some of the best basketball of any team in the league over the last month. The Pistons are 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS since the day after Christmas and are showing some great value here as a mere 2-point home favorite against the slumping Bucks. Milwaukee has dropped two straight, both at home, to the Raptors and Jazz.

One of the big keys here is that Detroit will be playing with double-revenge, as they lost 86-98 at Milwaukee on Nov. 25 and 88-104 at home on Nov. 28. The important thing to keep in mind is that both of those two losses came prior to the Pistons getting rid of Josh Smith, which coincided with their current 12-3 run.

Detroit is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing on a full 2 days of rest. Milwaukee on the other hand is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. These trends combine to from a sizzling 81% (17-4) system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit!

5* NBA Game of the Month on Nuggets -

This may seem like a lot of points to lay on the Nuggets, who come into tonight's contest having dropped 4 straight, but this is a perfect spot to back Denver and fade the Celtics. The Nuggets are going to be extremely motivated at home to put an end to their losing streak, while Boston is in a horrible scheduling spot.

The Celtics come in off a highly contested 90-89 win at Portland last night and now face the difficult task of going to play in one of thin air of Denver on no rest. Adding to this is the fact that the win over the Blazers isn't all that impressive given Portland's injury problems right now. Prior to that win, Boston had lost 4 of their last 5 and each of their previous 3 by at least 9 points. It's also worth noting that while Boston is going to be tired, Denver comes in on a full 2 days of rest.

History is also on our side in this one. Denver has won 5 straight at home with their last loss to the Celtics at the Pepsi Center coming back in 2009. The smallest margin of victory for Denver during their home winning streak against Boston is 7-points and the last time they hosted the Celtics they won by 31 (129-98).

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Teams off 2 straight losses by 10 or more points against an opponent coming off a game where both teams scored 90 or fewer points are 46-19 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver!

4* NBA Situational Vegas Insider on Pelicans -

New Orleans is showing some great value here as a mere 7-point favorite against the Timberwolves. The Pelicans absolutely destroyed Minnesota in their previous meeting this season, winning 139-91 at home. New Orleans simply isn't getting a lot of respect from the books right now, due to the fact that they are just 4-5 SU and 4-5 ATS over their last 9 games.

The Pelicans are coming in off a 96-80 home win over the Lakers as a 7-point favorite, while Minnesota is fresh off an 80-105 loss at Charlotte on Monday and 75-98 home loss to the Mavs on Wednesday. This is a game New Orleans can't afford to lose given how competitive things are in the Western Conference. Minnesota on the other hand is struggling to stay focused at this point in the season and I'm not expecting a great effort here from the Timberwolves, who are just 3-16 at home this season.

The Pelicans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against the Western Conference and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing on Friday. Minnesota on the other hand is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 3-8 ATS after failing to cover last time out.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites that have gone under the total by 36 or more combined points in their last 5 games, who have a winning percentage between 45%-55% are 32-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 80% system in favor of the Pelicans. Take New Orleans!

3* NBA Total Dominator on Knicks/Magic UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for this one. These two teams combined for just 192 points in New York back on Nov. 12 and that's the same kind of outcome I'm expecting to see tonight. This line has simply been inflated due to the Magic going OVER the total in 6 straight, including a 246 combined score in their last game against Detroit.

The key here is that the Magic's last 6 games have come against the likes of the Blazers, Bulls, Rockets, Grizzlies, Thunder and Pistons, who are all very capable offensive teams. The Knicks are not anywhere close to being a good offensive team, as they come in averaging 92.8 ppg. Only the 76ers at 90.1 ppg average fewer. New York hasn't topped the century mark since late December (11 straight games) and have seen the UNDER go 16-5 in their 21 home games.

It's also worth mentioning that neither of these teams like to play at a frantic pace. In fact, the Knicks play at the second slowest pace in the league at 92.6, while Orlando is 16th at 96.1. With the game being played at New York and the Knicks well rested (just 2nd game in last 4 days), I look for them to control the tempo, which should have this one finishing well below the mark.

UNDER is 13-5 in the Magic's last 18 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games, 16-6 in their last 22 road games with a total set above 200 points, and 15-2 in their last 17 road games when they come having lost at least 8 of their last 10. UNDER is 12-3 in Knicks last 15 at home, and 5-1 in their last 6 at home against a team with a losing road record. These trends combine to form a 78% (61-17) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Bulls/Spurs TNT Vegas Insider on Bulls +

The Bulls are way undervalued right now due to their recent rough stretch, but I'm expecting a big bounce back performance at home in a nationally televised game against the defending champs. I look for Derrick Rose's rant after Chicago's most recent loss at Cleveland to light a fire under this team and have them easily cover this spread. In fact, I like the Bulls to win here outright, but will take the points as insurance.

Another thing playing into this inflated spread on the Spurs, is the fact that San Antonio has won and covered in each of their last 4 games. While two of those came on the road, they barely edged out a 5-point win at Charlotte and defeated the Nuggets by 10, but caught Denver in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 4th in the last 5 days overall.

Since Thibodeau took over as coach of the Bulls, they have gone 50-33 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 15-4 ATS in the 2nd half against teams that have won 60% to 70% of their games. Take Chicago!

3* NBA Non-Conference ATS Knockout on Kings -

This a great spot to back the Kings, who are going to come out extremely motivated to put an end to their 4-game losing streak. The thing to keep in mind is that three of those losses came against some of the elite teams in the West in the Mavericks, Clippers and Trail Blazers.

I look for Sacramento to have no problem getting back on track against the Nets, who have dropped 8 of their last 9 overall and are still without the services of starting point guard Deron Williams. Without Williams on the floor, Brooklyn has gone a mere 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS this season.

The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 overall, but are being undervalued here due to the fact that they are 1-4 SU during this stretch. Sacramento is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss, while Brooklyn is 2-8 ATS in their last 10, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 off a loss and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record. These trends combine to form a 78% (29-8) system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento!

4* Heat/Hornets NBA Vegas Insider on Hornets -

This is a great price to back the Hornets as a relatively small home favorite against the Heat. Charlotte comes in playing their best basketball of the season, as they have won 7 of their last 8, with the only loss coming against the Spurs. It's also important to note that all but 1 of their 7 wins during this stretch have come by at least 8 points.

Miami on the other hand is in a difficult spot here, as they will be on no rest after last night's 86-94 home loss to the Thunder. The Heat will also be missing a couple of key players in this one, as Luol Deng and Hassan Whiteside are both not expected to play. Tired legs and a couple of key players sidelined, is going to make it extremely difficult for the Heat to keep up with a Hornets team that will be playing their 2nd game in just the last 4 days.

Charlotte already won at home 96-89 back on Nov. 5 and nearly knocked off the Heat on the road on Nov. 23 (lost 93-94). It's also worth adding that Charlotte is 9-3 ATS this season against poor defensive teams that are giving up 46% or better and the Heat are 2-8 ATS this year against teams who average 53+ rebounds/game.

There's also a strong system in play. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming off a game that finished UNDER the total against an opponent that has gone UNDER the total in each of their last 6 games are 69-34 ATS since 1996. That's a 67% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte!

5* Spurs/Nuggets Western Conference Game of the Month on Spurs -

This may seem like a lot of points for the Spurs to be laying on the road against the Nuggets, but I look for San Antonio to have no problem winning here by at least 10 points. The Spurs are finally starting to get healthy and are a perfect 2-0 since Kawhi Leonard returned to the lineup with both coming via blowouts. They knocked off Portland at home 110-96 on Friday and came back with a 89-69 win at home over the Jazz on Sunday.

San Antonio isn't going to take their foot off the gas, as they are currently sitting in just 7th place in the Western Conference. While the Spurs are on the upswing, Denver is in a bit of a free fall right now. The Nuggets have lost 3 straight, including an ugly 105-113 home loss to the Timberwolves on Saturday and a 79-122 defeat yesterday at Golden State.

While you could argue that Denver is primed for a bounce back performance, I don't believe that to be the case at all. The Nuggets are in an absolutely brutal scheduling spot, as they not only are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days overall.

Denver is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games following a road loss by more than 10 points, 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 1-9 ATS this season when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Spurs are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 road games after playing two straight as a home favorite. These trends combine to form a 78% (58-16) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on the Bucks +

The Raptors should not be a road favorite against the Bucks tonight. Toronto is in a major slump right now, having lost two straight and 7 of their last 9 overall. Milwaukee comes in off an impressive 95-79 win over the Knicks in London last Thursday and I look for them to carry over that momentum against the Raptors.

The Bucks are going to have no problem getting motivated for this matchup. Milwaukee suffered one of it's worse losses of the season back in November when they visited Toronto, losing 82-124. The Bucks are an impressive 18-8 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent this season and an even stronger 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points.

Milwaukee is also 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-pointers per game and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 versus poor defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field. These trends combine to from a 74% (54-19) system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Knicks +

As difficult as it may be to back the Knicks, given their 16-game losing streak, I think this is a great spot for New York to end the skid and cash in an easy cover. New Orleans is coming in off an impressive 96-93 win at Toronto yesterday, but are just 2-6 over their last 8 games, which includes an ugly 81-96 loss at Philadelphia last Friday.

The Pelicans could once again be without the services of their two best players in Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday, which certainly increases the Knicks' chances of winning this game outright. Either way this is a tough spot for New Orleans, who not only is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but will be playing their 4th straight road game in the span of just 6 days. The Knicks on the other hand, come in off a full 3-days of rest and are going to come out motivated to win at home and put and end to their awful run.

New Orleans is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games off a SU win, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a losing record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won fwer than 40% of their games.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Home underdogs off a game where they failed to cover the spread, playing 3 or less games over the last 10 days are 79-41 ATS since 1996. That's a strong 66% long-term system in favor of the Knicks. Take New York!

3* Thunder/Magic NBA Main Event on Thunder -

The Thunder come into this game off a 127-115 home win over Golden State on Friday and I look for OKC to carry over that momentum with a blowout win over the Magic. Orlando comes in off a 10-point loss at home to the Grizzlies and are just 2-7 in their last 9 games. I look for the Thunder to go on a nice run, as they continue to fight to get back into the playoff race in the Western Conference. 

Magic are 1-8 ATS in the last 9 home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days, 18-34 ATS in their last 52 home games after playing their last game at home and just 12-25 ATS in their last 37 games after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. 

Adding to this is a strong system in play. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a strong offensive team (99+ ppg) that has allowed 55 or more points in the 1st half of their last two games are 63-29 ATS since 1996. That's a 69% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

3* Hawks/Bulls NBA ATS Main Event on Bulls +

I know the Hawks are playing extremely well right now, but they should not be a road favorite against the Bulls. Chicago is every bit as good as Atlanta and will be out to make a statement that they are the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. 

A key factor here is that while both teams will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, the Hawks are in a more difficult scheduling spot here. Atlanta will be playing their 4th game in the last 5 nights, with all four of those games coming on the road. This is the perfect spot for the Hawks to suffer a letdown, as they get ready to return home for a lengthy 7-game homestand. 

Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record and are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against the Hawks. Take the Bulls!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Pistons -

I have no problem laying this big of a number with the Pistons at home. Detroit is playing their best basketball of the season right now, as they have won 10 of their last 12, including a thrilling 98-96 win at Indiana last night. 

Philadelphia has also been playing better of late, but the 76ers are in an awful scheduling spot here. Not only did Philadelphia also play last night, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. 

Adding even more value here is the fact we can be confident the Pistons won't be overlooking the 76ers, as they lost at home to Philadelphia 101-108 back on Dec. 6. Detroit was only a 9.5-point favorite in that game and now we see them laying 13. I think the books are begging for action here on the 76ers, knowing that Pistons will win big. 

Pistons are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a home favorite of 7 points or more. Detroit is also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs a team that's won 40% or less of their games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when playing with no rest. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (41-16) system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Spurs/Blazers OVER

This will be the 3rd meeting between these two teams this season and both of the previous matchups have seen plenty of offense. The Spurs and Blazers combined for 203 points in Portland back on Dec. 15 and a few days later combined for 248 in a triple-overtime thriller at San Antonio. Adding to this is that 8 of the last 10 in the series have seen at least 200 points scored.

A big key here is that the Spurs are expected to get back a big piece of their offense, as Kawhi Leonard is upgraded as probable. Leonard hasn't played since Dec. 15 and is San Anotonio's leading scorer at 15.2 ppg. 

Portland comes in averaging 105.1 ppg on the road and are giving up 100.6 ppg, while the Spurs are averaging 106.8 ppg at home and allowing 101.8 ppg. With the Spurs getting back one of their top scorers and Portland coming in with fresh legs (just their 2nd game in the last 5 days), I look for both teams to eclipse the century mark as this one flies over the total.

OVER is 4-0 in the Trail Blazers last 4 games played on Friday. It's also 7-0 in the Spurs last 7 home games against teams who average 53+ rebounds/game, 4-0 in their 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 4-0 in their last 4 versus the Northwest Division. These trends combine to form a perfect 100% (19-0) system. Take the OVER!

4* Hawks/Raptors NBA ATS No Brainer on Raptors -

While the Hawks come in on impressive 10-0 SU and 9-0 ATS runs, I think the value here is with the Raptors as a pick'em at home. Toronto is just 2-5 over their last 7 games, but come in off an impressive 16-point home win over the 76ers, which also marked the return of All-Star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan after a 21-game absence. DeRozan wasn't rusty at all, scoring 20 points on 9 of 14 shooting with 4 rebounds and 3 assists.

The key thing you have to keep in mind here is that the Raptors were the talk of the Eastern Conference when DeRozan was healthy to start the year. Toronto opened up 13-2 prior to DeRozan getting hurt in a 102-106 loss at Dallas. That strong start included two wins over the Hawks (109-102 at home and 126-115 at Atlanta). It's also worth noting that the Raptors are now 9-1 at home with a healthy DeRozan, compared to 7-4 without him in the lineup from start to finish.

Another big key here is rest. While Toronto will be playing their 5th straight at home and haven't played on consecutive days since late December. Atlanta on the other hand is playing their 3rd straight on the road in the span of just 4 days. Take Toronto!

4* Thunder/Rockets NBA on TNT Vegas Insider on Thunder +

This may seem like a favorable line to back the Rockets at home, but I think the value here is clearly with Oklahoma City. The Thunder come into this contest off a full 5-days of rest and are clearly not getting a lot of respect right now after failing to cover the spread in each of their last 6 games.

The big key here is that while Oklahoma City is coming off a much needed extended break, the Rockets are in a tough scheduling spot. Houston just played last night at Orlando, which they surprisingly loss 113-120 as a 9-point favorite. Not only will the Rockets being playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, but this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights.

This game clearly means more to the Thunder who at 18-19 are in desperate need of a big run to get back in the playoff picture in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City will also be out for revenge from a 4-point home loss back in November.

All of this sets up a huge system. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are revenging a home loss, who are playing just their 3rd game in 10 days are 39-13 ATS since 1996. That's a 75% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

3* Wizards/Bulls ESPN Main Event on Bulls -

The Bulls haven't been playing up to their potential here of late and come in off an ugly 114-121 home loss to the Magic. I think that loss to Orlando combined with their recent 86-102 defeat at Washington last Friday, is going to have Chicago coming out with one of their best performances of the season.

The Wizards certainly aren't going to back down, but this is a real tough spot for them. Washington laid everything on the line against the Bulls last Friday, they then had to go to Atlanta to take on the surging Hawks Sunday and returned home to face the Spurs last night. Now they have to travel to Chicago to face a pissed off Bulls team that is working on a full day of rest. I just don't see Washington having the energy here to keep this one close.

Washington is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after covering the spread last time out, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played on Wednesday and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when playing on 0 days of rest.

There's also a strong system that backs the Bulls off that ugly loss to the Magic. Teams who are off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 or points, are 34-11 ATS since 1996 in a game involving two strong teams that have won 60% to 75% of their games. That's a 76% system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!

5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Celtics/Hawks OVER

These two teams combined for 214 points in the Hawks 109-105 home win back on Dec. 2. I'm expecting even more offensive fireworks in the rematch. The Celtics just put up 108 points on the Pelicans at home last time out and are averaging 104.7 ppg at home on the season. Atlanta has scored 100+ in 3 straight and are averaging 104.1 ppg on the road.

One of the big keys here is that both of these teams do an excellent job of sharing the basketball offensively. Atlanta averages 26 assists per game and Boston is right behind at 25. I look for the offenses to have their way in this one, as both teams don't figure to have a whole lot of energy left to use up on defense.

Hawks are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 days overall. I just don't see them giving max effort on defense here, especially with games against the Raptors and Bulls on deck this weekend. Celtics are playing with a day off, but this is their 4th game in the last 6 days. Boston also has a lot of new faces with their recent trades and aren't going to have the chemistry defensively to slow down an offense like the Hawks.

OVER is 5-1 in Atlanta's last 6 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 32-16 in their last 48 when they come in having successfully covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games. OVER is also 12-4 in the Celtics last 16 when they come in having lost 2 of 3 and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 off an upset win as an underdog.

Adding to this is a strong a system. OVER is 41-15 since 1996 in games with a total of 200 to 209.5, where you have a team that covered the spread last time out (Celtics) against an opponent that has covered in 6 or more straight games (Hawks). That's a 73% system. Take the OVER!

4* Spurs/Wizards NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Wizards -

Washington is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Spurs. The Wizards are going to be extremely motivated off that ugly 31-point loss at Atlanta on Sunday and will also be out for revenge. Washington lost 92-101 at San Antonio back on Jan. 3.

The Wizards are being undervalued due to losing 4 of their last 7, but the key thing to note is that all of those losses came on the road. Just prior to losing at Atlanta, Washington rolled the Bulls 102-86 at home. The Wizards are and impressive 16-4 at home overall, while the Spurs are a mere 10-9 on the road.

San Antonio is going to go on a run at some points, but I don't see them really taking off until Kawhi Leonard returns from injury. Spurs are also without Aaron Baynes and could be missing both Manu Ginobili and Marco Belinelli, who are both listed as questionable.

Washington is 25-11 ATS in their last 36 when revenging a loss where the opponents scored 100 or more points and a 3-0-1 in their last 4 after failing to cover the spread in their last game. Spurs on the other hand are 2-6 ATS after a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after a SU win by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 75% (38-13) system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

4* Pelicans/Celtics NBATV ATS No Brainer on Pelicans -

This is a great spot to back the Pelicans as a small road favorite against the Celtics. Boston just made another big trade that sent their leading scorer in Jeff Green to Memphis. The chemistry with this Celtics team can't be good right now as they continue to have players coming and going.

New Orleans isn't going to care what the situation is for Boston. The Pelicans are on a mission to start off their 5-game road trip against the Eastern Conference with a win and I look for them to have no problem covering this small spread. New Orleans just has too much talent, especially inside with Anthony Davis, for Boston to overcome.

The Pelicans are just 18-18 overall and 6-13 on the road, but this is a team that would be near the top of the standings if they were playing in the East instead of the West. The fact that New Orleans comes in having failed to cover 2 of their last 3, sets them up in a favorable spot.

The Pelicans are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games when they fail to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3. Boston on the other hand is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games after losing 3 of their last 4 and just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after playing their previous game as an underdog. These trends combine to form a 80% (37-9) system in favor of the Pelicans. Take New Orleans!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Lakers +

The Lakers are showing some great value here as a home underdog against the Trail Blazers. LA won 101-84 at home as a mere 2.5-point favorite last time out. While they are just 4-8 SU over their last 12 games, they are a solid 9-3 ATS during this same stretch, including 3 straight covers at home.

One of the big keys here is the Lakers catch Portland in a great spot. The Trail Blazers will be on the road in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and playing their 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Portland is not nearly as good on the road as they are at home and are simply being overvalued here due to having the much better overall record.

Lakers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 versus the Western Conference, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent comes in after scoring 100+ in their last game and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. These trends combine to form a strong 90% (18-2) system in favor of the Lakers. Take Los Angeles!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Magic/Trail Blazers OVER

The books have completely missed the mark on this total. A big reason for the low total here is the fact that Portland comes in having gone under the total in 4 of their last 5 and the Magic have finished below the mark in each of their last two.

The key here is that Orlando is playing in the 2nd game off a back-to-back set and their 3rd straight road game overall. That's an awful situation to be in against one of Trail Blazers, who have been dominant at home. Portland has not shot the ball well at all in their last two games. They hit just 39.8% from the field against the Lakers on Monday and only 42.1% against Miami on Thursday. The Trail Blazers are going to be motivated here to get their offense going and Orlando simply isn't going to have the energy defensively to stop them.

The other key here is I'm not expecting a ton of intensity from Portland on the defensive side of the ball. It's not easy getting motivated to play a bad team like the Magic and it's even harder to give max effort on defense when you are scoring at will offensively.

It's also worth noting that both of these teams tend to find themselves in high scoring games on Saturday. The OVER is 18-7 in the Magic's last 25 games on Saturday and 23-11 in the Trail Blazers last 34 on Saturday.

The OVER is also a solid 4-1 in Orlando's last 5 games when playing on no rest, 23-12 in the Trail Blazers last 35 with a total set at 190 to 199.5 points and 31-15 in Portland's last 46 when they come in having won 8 of their last 10.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. OVER is 35-10 since 1996 in games with a total of 190 to 199.5, where you have a team that has allowed 85 points or less (Portland) against an opponent that has scored 90 or less in 3 straight games. That's a 78% system. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational Total Dominator on Pacers/76ers OVER

When you consider the Pacers are scoring just 95.4 ppg and giving up just 96.8 ppg, your first instinct would be to take the UNDER given the 76ers come in averaging a mere 90.5 ppg. I believe the books have over-adjusted this total, creating some big time value on the OVER.

Indiana isn't going to bring the same defensive intensity against a horrible team like the 76ers, as they would against other teams, especially with how bad the 76ers are defensively. You also have to factor in the Pacers are coming off an overtime game against the Celtics last night. Philadelphia is giving up 106.7 ppg at home. Keep in mind the Pacers have scored and allowed 100+ in each of their last 3 games.

OVER is 9-1 in the Pacers last 10 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 8-1 in their last 9 road games after they failed to cover the spread last time out. OVER is also 29-16 in 76ers last 45 home games after playing their last game on the road.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. The OVER is 31-5 since 1996 in games with a total of 180 to 189.5 points, where you have a team off an upset win as underdog of 10 or more points, that are playing 6 or more games in 10 days. That's a 86% system. Take the OVER!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Lakers -

The Lakers are way undervalued here after getting the crap kicked out of them in Wednesday's 89-114 loss to the Clippers, which saw them trail by as many as 43 points. Any time a team gets embarrassed like that, more times than not they bounce back with one of their better efforts.

The key thing to keep in mind here is that the Lakers had been playing a lot better prior to that loss. Los Angeles lost by just 4-points at Portland, defeated Indiana 88-87, lost by just 3-points at home to Memphis and upset Denver on the road 111-103 in their previous 4 games. Even with that loss to the Clippers, the Lakers are an impressive 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games.

Orlando has struggled to play well on the road against the LA, losing 4 of their last 5 visits to the Staples Center when matched up against the Lakers. I also look for them to have a difficult time coming out with a lot of energy after playing in the thin air of Denver on Wednesday.

Magic are just 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games, while the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after failing to cover the spread last time out, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Friday and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 versus a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. These trends combine to form a 79% (33-9) system in favor of the Lakers. Take Los Angeles!

4* NBA ATS No Brainer on Spurs -

Rarely will you find San Antonio undervalued on their home floor, but I believe that's the case tonight. The Spurs are getting no love after a 104-105 home loss to Detroit on Tuesday, which saw San Antonio blow an 18-point lead. The Suns on the other hand are getting all kinds of respect right now, as they come in having won 4 straight and 10 of their last 12 overall.

The key thing to note with Phoenix and their recent surge, is that they have taken advantage of a soft spot in their schedule. Of those 10 wins, 7 have come against the likes of the Hornets, Knicks, Kings, Lakers, 76ers, Bucks and Timberwolves. The Suns have just 1 win in their last 10 visits to San Antonio.

Another important factor here is the Spurs should have a healthy Tony Parker available for this matchup. Parker returned from a 5-game absence in that loss to Detroit, but only played 13 minutes as Popovich wanted to ease him back in his first game.

San Antonio is also well rested here, as they come in on a full 2 days rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. Phoenix on their other hand will be playing their 3rd straight road game in a span of just 4 days.

Home teams that are a strong shooting team (45.5%-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5%-45.5%), average rebounding team (+/- 3 rpg) against a poor rebound team (-3 to -5.5 rpg) are 77-45 ATS since 1996. That's a 63% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

5* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month on Thunder -

I have no problem laying this big number here on the Thunder at home against the Jazz. Oklahoma City is ripe for a huge bounce back performance after two ugly shooting performances on the road against the Warriors and Kings. The Thunder went just 30-98 (30.6%) from the field in a 91-117 loss at Golden State on Monday and 29-89 (32.6%) in a 83-104 defeat at Sacramento on Wednesday.

It's a similar spot to what we saw back in last November. Oklahoma City was hosting the Jazz off a 86-91 loss at Golden State, where they shot just 35.6% from the field and the Thunder rolled Utah 97-82 at home behind a sizzling 48.2% shooting. The Jazz are allowing teams to make 46.4% of their shots on the season, including 37.2% from long distance.

I look for the Thunder to come out with one of their best performances of the season, as this team simply can't afford not to take every game seriously right now. Oklahoma City is a full 4-games back the Suns/Spurs for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their 5 home games against the Jazz over the last 3 seasons and all 5 of those wins have come by at least 12 points. This is also a perfect spot to fade Utah off that 20-point win at Chicago as an 11-point dog. Underdogs that have won 25% to 40% of their games on the season, after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game are a mere 6-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a dynamite 81% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

3* NBA Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Raptors -

The Raptors should have no problem covering this massive spread at home against the Hornets. Toronto will be all business when they take the floor tonight, as they come in looking to snap a season-high 3-game losing streak. All 3 of those losses came on the tail end of their 6-game road trip. The Raptors have won 5 straight at home, with each of the last 4 coming by double-digits.

Toronto is also well rested here, as they have a full 3 days off since last playing on Sunday. Charlotte has played twice since the Raptors last game, including last night at home against the Pelicans. The Hornets will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 3rd in 4 days overall. Keep in mind they are still without their best play in Al Jefferson. I just don't see Charlotte being able to keep up here against a motivated Toronto team that is going to look to push the pace, knowing the Hornets are dealing with some tired legs.

Charlotte is a mere 19-33 ATS in their last 52 games when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and just 15-29 ATS in their last 44 when listed as an underdog of 10 or more points.

Toronto is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 off a road loss and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 or more points. Raptors are also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 when playing against a bad team that's won between 25% and 40% of their games. These trends here combine to form a 77% (53-16) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!

4* Thunder/Kings NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Thunder -

This is a great spot to back the Thunder, who are going to be extremely motivated after Monday's embarrassing 91-117 loss at Golden State. Oklahoma City simply can't afford to look past a team like the Kings, as they are sitting at just 17-18 overall, which has them 3-games back of 8th place in the West.

The Thunder have won 12 straight against the Kings and are catching Sacramento in a slump. The Kings are just 5-15 SU and 1-17-2 ATS in their last 20 games. Their 5 wins during this stretch have come against the likes of the Pacers, Jazz, Lakers, Knicks and Timberwolves. Oklahoma City has won by double-digits in each of their previous two trips to Sacramento, including a 104-92 road win back on Dec. 16.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are strong offensive teams, averaging 99+ ppg, after allowing 55 or more in the 1st half of their last two games are 62-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 69% long-term system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pistons/Mavs OVER

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the total set for this matchup. Dallas comes into this game allowing a league-best 109.5 ppg and have been even better at home, putting up 111.8 ppg. With the Pistons having just played last night in a closely contested game at San Antonio and this being their 3rd game in the last 4 days, Detroit isn't going to have the energy to slow down this Dallas offensive attack.

The Pistons are going to have rely on their offense to keep them in this one and I expect them to have no problem providing enough here to push this game well over the mark. The Pistons are averaging 107.8 ppg over their 6-game winning streak and Dallas is giving up an average of 102.6 ppg at home.

It's also worth noting that these two teams played recently in Detroit and combined for 223 points in a 117-106 Mavs win back on Dec. 17. It was the third straight meeting in this series that saw at least 215 points.

OVER is 13-4 in Pistons last 17 games against a team that's won 70% or more of their games, 12-1 in their last 13 against the Western Conference's Southwest division, 28-9 in their last 37 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days and 23-8 in the Mavs last 31 after playing 3 straight on the road. These trends combine to form a 78% (76-22) system. Take the OVER!

3* Suns/Bucks NBATV ATS Main Event on Bucks +

The Milwaukee Bucks have been one of the surprise teams of 2014 and I think we are getting some great value here with the Bucks getting 4-points at home against the Suns. Milwaukee has already went on the road and beat Phoenix 96-94 earlier this season.

The Suns were a 5.5-point favorite in that game. If you factor in home court on that earlier spread, the Bucks should actually be a small home favorite here. This line is simply inflated due to the fact that the Suns have gone 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS over their last 10 games.

The key here is that this is a difficult spot for Phoenix, who laid everything on the line in their 125-109 win at home over the Raptors on Sunday. I look for them to suffer a big letdown here, having to travel to Milwaukee after a short two game homestand that followed a 4-game road trip. The Bucks on the other hand are going to come out motivated getting a rare chance to play in nationally televised game on NBATV.

Phoenix has historically struggled of 2 big wins, going just 46-76 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points. The Bucks on the other hand have thrived in games that are expected to be high-scoring. Milwaukee is 11-2 ATS this season when the total is set to 200 or more points. Bucks are also an impressive 17-7 ATS when listed as an underdog.

Adding to this is a strong system. Teams who have lead by 5 or more points at the half in each of their last 3 games against an opponent that scored 60+ in the first half of their last game are 39-14 ATS over the last 5 seasons (3-1 this season). That's a 74% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

4* Thunder/Warriors NBATV ATS No Brainer on Thunder +

The Thunder will be all business when they take the floor against the Warriors tonight. Oklahoma City has already dropped two games against Golden State this season, losing 86-91 at home and 109-114 on the road. Durant didn't play in the home loss and had to leave their loss at Golden State with an ankle injury after scoring 30 points in 19 minutes. The Thunder are 9-2 this season when Durant and Westbrook are both healthy and the last time Durant played a full game against the Warriors he put up a career-high 54 points.

Not only is Oklahoma City out for revenge, but this game means a lot more to the Thunder than it does the Warriors. Oklahoma City currently sits 10th in the Western Conference standings, 2 games back of Phoenix for the 8th spot. Golden State on the other hand has the best record in the league at 26-5.

Oklahoma City is 127-91 (58%) ATS since 1996 when revenging a loss to an opponent. The Thunder are also 30-15 ATS in their last 45 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after failing to cover 3 of their last 4.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road teams who are a strong offensive team (98-102 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg), after allowing 100 or more in 3 straight games are 48-23 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 68% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

3* NBA Situational ATS Blowout on Trail Blazers -

I have no problem laying a big number on Portland at home against the Lakers tonight. Los Angeles will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and will also be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 nights. The key here is the Lakers will be without the services of both Kobe Bryant and Wesley Johnson. Bryant will be taking the night off to rest up for Wednesday's showdown against the Clippers, while Johnson is out after suffering a hip flexor in last night's game against the Pacers. Bryant leads the team with 35.1 min/game and Johnson is second at 29.3 min/game.

You also have to take into consideration that the Lakers are coming off a hard fought 88-87 win at home over the Pacers last night, which puts them in a huge letdown spot with that huge game against the Clippers on deck.

The most important aspect here is that Portland won't be overlooking the Lakers after losing 107-115 at home to the Hawks on Saturday. That was just third home loss the Trail Blazers have suffered all season. Most recently they followed up a 99-112 home loss to Memphis with a 14-point home win over the Timberwolves. Portland will be all business and I wouldn't be surprised if they won here by 20+ points.

Trail Blazers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games against horrible teams that are getting outscored by 6+ points/game, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after covering 3 of their last 4 and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 79% (27-7) system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland!

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Wizards +

The Wizards come into this contest off 3 straight road losses, while the Pelicans enter off a 28-point home win over the Rockets, which has created some big time value on Washington as a 3-point road dog tonight.

The Wizards 3-game road losing streak have come against the likes of the Mavericks, Thunder and Spurs. Prior to their skid, Washington had lost a total of 3 games over their previous 16 contests. I look for the Wizards to clamp down defensively and come away with a win in the final game of their 5-game west coast road trip.

As impressive as New Orleans' win over Houston was, the Pelicans have struggled to put together consecutive victories. New Orleans has followed up each of their previous 4 wins with a loss. The Pelicans are clearly one of the more improved teams this season, but they aren't quite there yet.

Wizards are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games after playing their previous game as an underdog, 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games after allowing 100 or more points in each of their last two contests and a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 road games after scoring 55 points or more in the 1st half of their last game.

It's also worth noting that the Wizards held the Pelicans to just 80 points in a 83-80 home win back on Nov. 29. Favorites off a home win that are revenging a loss where they scored 85 points or less are just 30-60 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

Adding to this is an even stronger system on Washington. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are a strong offensive team (98-102 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg) after allowing 100 or more in each of their last two games are 25-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 89% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

3* NBA Situational ATS Blowout on Heat +

I was on the wrong side of Miami's embarrassing loss last night at Houston, but I'm coming right back with another play on the Heat as a home underdog. This line is a huge overreaction. If anything that blowout loss should light a fire under Miami and have them coming out extremely motivated tonight.

One of the reasons we see the Heat undervalued here at home is due to the fact that they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. However, all 5 of Miami's starters played less than 30 minutes last night, which is going to make it easy for them to bounce back with a strong effort against the Nets.

Another big key here is that the Heat have shown they matchup well with the Nets. Miami has went on the road and defeated Brooklyn twice already this season, winning 95-83 on Nov. 17 and 95-91 on Dec. 16.

Miami is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a SU loss by more than 10 points and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 versus the Atlantic. These trends combine to form a 81% (25-6) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!

4* NBA Situational Vegas Insider on Heat +

The Heat are showing some great value here as a 7.5-point underdog against the Rockets. Miami is simply not getting the respect they deserve due to going 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games. With Chris Bosh back in the lineup, I look for the Heat to go on a run here to start the new year.

The big key here is that they are catching the Rockets in a great spot. Houston will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after playing last night in New Orleans and this will be their 5th game in the last 7 days. Adding to this is the fact that the Rockets are in a bit of a slump, as they are just 3-5 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games. It's also worth noting that Miami comes in off a full two days of rest and will without a doubt be the fresher and more energized team in this one.

Miami is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, while Houston is 10-31 ATS in their last 41 home games when playing their 5th game in 7 days and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after playing their last game against a division opponent.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have shot 47% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games are 77-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Jazz +

Even though the Jazz are in a difficult spot here, playing their 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road, I think we are getting some great value with Utah at basically a pick'em against the Timberwolves. Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the league and come in having lost 10 straight and are 1-16 in their last 17 overall.

Utah gave the Hawks all they could handle in a 92-98 home loss last night, continuing their recent strong play. Even with that defeat, the Jazz are 5-3 in their last 8 games, which includes road wins over the Heat, Magic and Grizzlies. They also just recently beat Minnesota at home 100-94 back on Dec. 30 and that was with the Timberwolves shooting 46.3% from the field and 47.1% from long distance. Minnesota is only hitting on 43.7% of their attempts on the season and are shooting just 30.0% from behind the 3-point line at home.

Utah is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games when they come in having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss. Minnesota is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a losing road record. These trends combine to form a 79% (38-10) system in favor of the Jazz. Take Utah!

5* NBA No Limit ATS Game of the Month on Grizzlies -

Memphis is showing some great value here as a mere 4.5-point road favorite against the Lakers. The Grizzlies have answered their 4-game losing streak with a 103-95 win at Miami and a 95-87 home victory against the Spurs and I look for them to come out motivated off a 2-day break.

While they will likely be without Zach Randolph once again, his absence isn't going to hurt them against a Lakers team that doesn't play defense and is giving up 55 rebounds/game. I also like the fact that we are catching the Lakers off back-to-back games where they shot better than 50% from the field and will be facing one of the top defensive teams in the league. Prior to that the Lakers had gone 14 straight games without a single game where they 50% or better.

Lakers are just 4-11 at home this year and Memphis is 10-4 SU on the road and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team that's won less than 40% of their home games.  The Grizzlies have also thrived on the road when they come in well rested. Memphis is 22-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Lakers. Home underdogs who are a terrible defensive team that is allowing 103+ points/game, after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are just 8-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 78% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Jazz +

I think the is a great spot to fade the Hawks on the road against a Utah team that is playing some of their best basketball of the season. The Jazz come in having won 5 of their last 7 and are a strong 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games.

The public has caught on to the Hawks and I believe we getting some great value here on Utah. Atlanta is going to have a tough time giving the Jazz their full attention. The Hawks are coming off a big home win against the Cavaliers and have two huge road games on deck against the Trail Blazers (Sat.) and Clippers (Mon.).

The fact that Atlanta comes in off 2 days rest and are playing just their 4th game in the last 10 days, might seem like a good reason to back the Hawks, but this team has not performed well in this spot. Atlanta is just 8-28 ATS in their last 35 games when playing with 2 days rest and are a mere 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games when playing just their 4th or less game in the last 10 days. Adding to this is the fact that the Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the Eastern Conference. These trends combine to form a 79% (52-14) system in favor of the Jazz. Take Utah!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Bucks +

The Cavaliers are a complete mess right now and I look for their struggles to continue tonight against the Bucks. I think there's a lot to all the rumors surrounding the players not on the same page as head coach David Blatt and I look for things to get worse before they get better. 

Cleveland has lost 3 of their last 4 and could be without two of their best players in LeBron James and Kevin Love (both questionable). The Cavaliers are also in a difficult spot, as they just played last night in a big game against the Hawks. Not only will they be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days and 5th in the last 7.

The Bucks have been one of the big surprises early, as Jason Kidd has his new team playing better than anyone anticipated. Milwaukee comes in off a 104-94 win at Charlotte and are 5-4 over their last 9 with their largest defeat during this stretch coming by 7-points. This will be just the 2nd game in the last 4 days for the Bucks and I look for them to control the tempo and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright.

We also have a strong system backing a play on the Bucks. Road teams who have gone under the total by 36 or more combined points in their last 5 games, with a winning percentage of 45% to 55% are 94-48 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

4* NBA Heavy Hitter on Spurs -

I think this is a great spot to back the Spurs at home against the Pelicans. While Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard are both listed as questionable, you never know what Popovich has up his sleeve. I wouldn't be shocked if both played tonight, especially with the way this line has jumped, but even if they don't I like San Antonio to win this game. The Spurs will be playing with double-revenge against the Pelicans, who they just recently lost to in New Orleans 90-97 on Dec. 26.

Keep in mind that prior to losing the last two against the Pelicans, San Antonio had won 18 of 21 over New Orleans and 22 of 25 at home. While the Spurs lost last night in Memphis, they won their previous home game against Houston 110-106.

What a lot of people are overlooking with the Spurs struggles is that they have gone through an absolute brutal stretch of games that has seen them face the Grizzlies, Blazers, Mavericks, Clippers, Thunder, Pelicans, Rockets and Grizzlies in that exact order. While they lost to New Orleans on the road, the Pelicans are just 6-11 away from home and are in a tough spot on the road here with this being the 2nd game of a back-to-back set.

The Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won 40% or less of their road games. Take the San Antonio!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pelicans -

New Orleans is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Suns. The Pelicans are a solid 9-4 at home and will be extremely motivated coming off a loss to the Bulls. New Orleans hasn't lost consecutive games since early December.

Phoenix is simply being overvalued here after due their 6-game winning streak that has saw them go a perfect 6-0 ATS. The key is that this is a tough spot for the Suns, who will be playing their 3rd straight road game and their 6th road game in their last 7 games overall. With the Pelicans coming into this game off a full 2-days of rest, they should have no problem coming away with a win against what has to be a tired Suns roster.

New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs a team with a winning road record.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Phoenix. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are averaging 102+ ppg and have gone over the total in 2 or more consecutive games are just 12-34 ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing a poor defensive team that is giving up 98-102 ppg. That's a 74% system in favor of the Pelicans. Take New Orleans!

5* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Pistons -

The Pistons are a perfect 2-0 since getting rid of Josh Smith and have arguably put together their two best performances in these victories. Detroit won 119-109 at home against the Pacers last Friday and followed it up with a shocking 103-80 blowout win on the road against the Cavaliers. The Pistons are now just 6 games out of playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and I look for them carry over that momentum with another easy win tonight against the Magic.

While Orlando comes in off two straight wins as well, this is a horrible spot for the Magic. Orlando played last night in Miami. Not only will they been in a difficult back-to-back spot, but they find themselves playing their 4th game in the last 5 days. I just don't see the Magic being able to keep pace with Detroit in this one, who will be out for revenge after losing 93-107 at home to Orlando back on Nov. 17.

Detroit is 27-12 ATS in their last 39 road games when they come in having lost at least 15 of their last 20 games overall and 38-19 ATS in their last 57 road games off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing the Pistons. Road teams that are revenging a loss to an opponent where they were listed as the favorite and are coming off a win by 10 or more over a division rival are 27-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Wizards +

This is a great spot to back Washington as a 4-point dog against the Rockets. Houston is still learning to adjust to the addition of Josh Smith and it's going to take some time before they get it figured out.

This is also a tough scheduling spot for the Rockets. Houston is coming off two huge road games against Memphis and San Antonio and that game against the Spurs was last night, putting them in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 days. Washington on the other hand will be playing on a full days rest and just their 2nd game in the last 4 days, which should give them enough of an advantage to win this game outright. It's also worth noting that Houston has actually been better on the road than they have at home. The Rockets are 11-3 on the road, compared to just 10-5 at home.

Washington comes in off two blowout wins over the Knicks (102-91) and Celtics (101-88) and are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games after scoring 55+ points in the 1st half of their last two games. Wizards are also 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games after playing their last game at home and 13-3 in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 79% (44-12) system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

5* NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year on Magic/Hornets OVER

We are getting some exceptional value here due to both these teams coming off low-scoring games last night. Charlotte connected on a franchise worst 28.7% of their field goal attempts in a 77-98 loss at Oklahoma City, while the Magic managed just 89 points in a 89-98 defeat at home to the Cavaliers.

Keep in mind that these two teams played recently in Charlotte back on Nov. 21. The total for that game was just 191 points and they combined to score 205. It was the 3rd time in the last 4 meetings these teams combined for at least 205 points. I look for this trend to continue when these two division rivals square off tonight.

Another big key here is that both of teams are playing on little rest, which I believe will lead to little to no intensity on the defensive end. Orlando will be playing in their 3rd game in 4 nights and 5th in 9 nights, while the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 6th in 9 days.

OVER is 6-1 in Magic's last 7 games against a team with a losing record and 8-3 in the Hornets last 11 games against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 8-3 in Charlotte's last 11 at home and 14-5 in their last 19 off a loss by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 75% (36-12) system backing this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER!

3* Rockets/Grizzlies NBA ATS Main Event on Grizzlies -

The Grizzlies are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Rockets. Memphis is going to come out extremely motivated after losing 3 straight, which included an ugly 91-97 home loss to the Jazz as an 8-point favorite on Monday. The Grizzlies have been off since that game, giving them a full 3 days of rest going into this matchup. I think that break is exactly what this team needed to get back on track.

Houston just signed Josh Smith, who was released by the Pistons on Monday. That move is perceived to make the Rockets a lot better and I think it has them overvalued here. It's not likely Smith will be available tonight and anytime a team adds a player this late into the season it's going to have a negative impact before a positive one. Not only does it mess with the chemistry of a team, but some players don't handle the fact that they will be getting reduced minutes.

Either way, I look for the Rockets to have a difficult time coming away with a win against the Grizzlies. Even with their recent struggles, Memphis is a dominant 12-3 at home. They already defeated Houston at home 119-93 back on Nov. 17, which was their second straight home win over the Rockets by at least 17 points.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 off an upset loss as a favorite in a game involving two strong teams (60% to 75%) are 56-22 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis!

5* NBA Game of the Month on Hornets +

This is a great spot to fade the Thunder at home against the surging Hornets. Oklahoma City is in a huge letdown spot after laying it all on the line in yesterday's 114-106 win at San Antonio. I just don't see the Thunder having enough left in the tank to blowout Charlotte at home. Oklahoma City isn't just playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days. The Thunder are also still without last year's MVP Durant.

The Hornets have came to life with Lance Stephenson sidelined, going 4-0 without the prized free agent signing. I look for the Hornets to continue their strong play on the road against Oklahoma City, as they come in off a full 2 days of rest. Dating back to last season, Charlotte is an impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games games in the month of December. Th Hornets are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on 2 days rest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of the Thunder. Home favorites that have allowed 100 or more points in each of their last 4 games, against an opponent that has scored 100 or more in their last 4 games are just 19-49 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte!

4* Lakers/Bulls Over/Under Total No Brainer on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have a strong history of going UNDER the total and I think we are getting some great value here in tonight's showdown between the Bulls/Lakers. Chicago has turned up the defensive intensity of late. They have allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents under 100-points and I look for them to have no problem keeping this Lakers team in check.

The key here is that with this being such a big game, I look for the Lakers to also come out with their best defensive efforts of the season. Each of the last 9 meetings in this series have finished with fewer points than the total set and over the last 3 seasons these two teams have averaged a combined score of just 190 points. 

UNDER is 50-30 (63%) in Chicago's last 80 games against horrible teams that are getting outscored by 6+ points/game. UNDER is also 6-1 in Lakers last 7 against a team with a winning record. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. UNDER is 100-54 since 1996 when you have a total set at 200 or more points where the road team comes in having covered 4 of their last 5 games and are only winning 25% to 40% of their games. That's a 65% long-term system. Take the UNDER!

3* Wizards/Knicks Early Bird Total Annihilator on UNDER

These two teams combined for just 181 points in their earlier matchup this season back on Nov. 4. I'm expecting another low-scoring battle between these two in the Christmas Day opener. NBA players are use to playing this early in the morning and I look for it to lead to poor shooting and a slower pace than what we would typically see. Last year the Bulls/Nets combined for 173 points in the opener on Christmas Day. In 2012, the Celtics and Nets only managed to combine for 169. 

The other key here is that I'm expecting both teams to come out with some energy defensively. The Wizards are going to be motivated here to get a win after losing each of their last two at home. The Knicks on the other hand will be trying to avoid losing a franchise worst 8th straight game at home in what will be their 50th appearance on Christmas. 

UNDER is 12-4 in Washington's last 16 games against poor defensive teams that are allowing 99+ points/game and 8-1 in their last 9 against strong 3-point shooting teams that are making 36% or more from the outside. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Knicks last 9 home games when listed as an underdog. These trends combine to form a 82% (28-6) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Suns/Mavs OVER

I believe we are catching some great value here on the OVER due to the Mavericks struggles offensively in their first two games since acquiring Rajon Rondo. Dallas was able to overcome a slow start last night against the Hawks with a 64 point second half and I look for them to carry over that momentum offensively to tonight's matchup against the Suns. Phoenix is also going to be playing with a lot of confidence offensively, as they just swept a 3-game road trip, where they averaged 104.7 ppg.

The big key here is that both of these teams aren't very strong defensively. The Mavericks come in allowing 102.5 ppg and the Suns are even worse at 103.1 ppg. Both of these offenses like to push the pace and I believe it's going to result in this one flying over the total of 213.5.

OVER is 10-1 in Mavericks last 11 games when their starters combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day, 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 100 or more points in their last game and 4-0 in their last 4 when playing with no rest. OVER is also 4-1 in Suns last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 9-3 in their last 12 versus the Western Conference.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The OVER is 34-9 since 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more points with the home team coming off a win by 10 or more points against an opponent that is off a close loss by 3-points or less. That's a 79% system backing this one to go over the mark. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Bucks -

While the Hornets seem to have found new life following the injury to Lance Stephenson, as they come in having won 3 straight by an average 21.4 ppg, this is not a good spot for Charlotte. Not only will the Hornets be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. I just don't see Charlotte having the injury on the road to keep this one competitive against a vastly improved Milwaukee team.

With a win over the Hornets, the Bucks can match last year's win total of 15. The big key here is that while Charlotte is in a brutal scheduling spot, Milwaukee comes in off a full 2 days of rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. It's also worth noting that the Bucks could be getting a boost here with the return of power forward Ersan Ilyasova, who has missed the last 9 games. Getting back Ilyasova is huge for a Bucks team that lost rookie Jabari Parker for the rest of the season and is also without reserve power forward John Henson.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Hornets. Underdogs who have beat the spread by more than 24 points in their last game, who have won just 25% to 40% of their games on the season are a mere 4-26 ATS over the last 5 years. That's a 87% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

4* NBA ATS No Brainer on Rockets -

Houston has had this game circled since the schedule was released. Portland stunned the Rockets in Game 6 of last years first-round playoff matchup, as Damian Lillard hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer. I believe it's a big reason why they have struggled in their two games leading up to this contest, as they have had their eyes set on this matchup.

The Rockets are catching the Trail Blazers in a great spot as well. This will be Portland's third straight road game in a span of just four days. Houston on the other hand will be playing their third straight home game and just their second game in the last 4 days.

Portland is just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 110 or more in each of their last 2 games and 4-10 in their last 14 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Houston is 19-9 ATS in their last 28 home games against a team with a winning record and 10-4 in their last 14 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games. These trends combine to form a 71% (54-22) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!

4* NBA Total Dominator on Heat/Celtics UNDER

I think the Celtics are going to struggle on offense without Rajon Rondo so this total is a little too high. The Celtics are also coming off back to back performances of shooting over 55% from the floor, and that’s a trend that isn’t going to hold but probably helped bump this total up a little bit.  Plus Boston fits a great system where road teams with a total above 200 coming off 3 straight blowout wins of 15+ points are 27-6 (82%) for the UNDER since 1996.  

Miami has not played with too many totals above 200 this year and they have still trended pretty hard towards the UNDER, going below the number in six of their last 9 despite frequently seeing over/unders 10 points lower than this one.  Miami fits a system that says to take the UNDER when a team has allowed 105 or more in two straight games and they are playing a team off a 15+ point blowout win.  The UNDER is 93-57 (62%) in those situations the last five years.

No Bosh for Miami and no Rando for the Celtics means less offense for both teams.  

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Miami Heat -

I’ll fade the Boston Celtics today as they play their second game without Rajon Rondo. Normally teams step up the first game a star goes down or is traded away and that was the case with Boston on Friday night as they put up 114 points and beat the lowly Wolves by 16 points.  They have been covering machines, beating the number 8 times in their last 10 games and one of those losses was by a half point.

Now they have to travel to Miami to take on a hungry Heat team.  I know Miami will be without Chris Bosh, but this will be his fifth game in a row that he’s missed so they are starting to get used to being without their big man.  Last time out they took the Wizards to the wire.

I think we are getting some value here due to Miami’s problems at home, but five of their last six losses in Miami have come against teams like the Clippers, Warriors, Hawks, Bulls, and Wizards, which are teams above the Celtics class.  

Boston is just 2-11 ATS on the road after a double digit win the last three seasons and 16-32 ATS after covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread since 1996. These trends combine to form a 70% (43-18) system favoring the Heat. Take Miami!

5* NBA Over/Under Total of the Month on Sixers/Magic UNDER

Teams tend to not shoot quite as well on Sundays as they do the rest of the week.  This normally means less scoring for good shooting teams and bad offensive rebounding teams (since they won’t get many second chance points.)  Today we have both teams fitting the bill which really has me liking the UNDER here.

The Magic are a good 3-point shooting team that hits 37.7% of their 3 point attempts on the year.  However, when the total is between 190-199.5 on Sundays a team is making 36% or more of their 3-point attempts, the UNDER is 119-68 (63.6%) the last five seasons.

Neither team hits the glass very well.  Orlando is averaging only 9 offensive rebounds per game against teams that normally give up 11.  Philadelphia is getting out-rebounded by five boards per game.  Both of these stats fit up favorable situations for our under.

On Sundays when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and a team is averaging less than 11 rebounds per game, the UNDER is 348-230 (60.2%) since 1996.  In the same situation of games on Sundays and totals in the 190s with teams getting out rebounded by 5+ boards per game, the UNDER is 33-10 (76.7%) since 1996.  Take the UNDER here today.

4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Bucks +

Milwaukee has been playing better basketball as of late, covering four straight and winning three of their last four. They also beat the Clippers 111-106 on their home floor a week ago so you know they have the confidence they can hang with LA.

The Clippers on the other hand are coming off a tough loss in Denver last night, their third in five games. They are in a tough spot since they are flying back home after a late game last night in which Paul played 39 minutes, Griffin 41, and Jordan 42.5. I don’t think they are going to have their ‘A’ game for this one which means take the double digits.

Adding to this is a strong system backing the Bucks. Home teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set that are revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points are just 47-84 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

4* NBA Situational ATS Dominator on Pacers +

Denver has had a tough run lately with 7 losses in their last 9 games, but they are coming off a big win against a conference rival in the Clippers last night.  That got the monkey off of their back and I think they might be due for a letdown with the Pacers coming into town.  

Lawson Affalo and Chandler all logged over 32 minutes in the win and they were giving max effort the entire time as the second half and especially the fourth quarter was back and forth before the Nuggets pulled off the three point win.  

We are getting some value here with Indiana for a couple of reasons. The first is they haven’t been playing very well. They ran through a very difficult part of the schedule and lost 9 of their last 10. These were losses against teams like Cleveland, Phoenix, Portland, Atlanta, the Clippers, and Toronto though so they were only favored one time and it was by a single point over the Hawks. Now they know they have to take advantage of a soft slate coming up so they can get back on track.

The other reason there is some value here is that Denver went into Indiana the second week of the season and beat the Pacers by 20.  This actually sets up a nice situation as Indiana is 15-5 ATS on the road when revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a favorite the last 3 years.

The Pacers offense has also been clicking and that sets up a nice situation where Indiana is 77-52 ATS on the road after scoring 100 or more in two straight games since 1996. We also find a strong system in play. Road teams that are revenging a home blowout loss of 20 or more points against an opponent that is coming in off a home win are 41-12 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year on Hornets/Jazz OVER

Both of these teams played last night and their key players logged a lot of minutes.  When NBA players get tired their defensive effort is the first to go so I think we’ll see this one easily go over the total tonight.

The Jazz have now gone over in 5 of their last six, having shot over 50% and scoring more than 100 points in their last three games.  Last night they played in Orlando and all five starters logged over 30 minutes.  

Charlotte last night got the opportunity to get their offense fine tuned against the Sixers and scored 109 points.  Walker played 38 minutes and Jefferson 36 while Kidd-Gilchrist and Henderson both played over 30.  The Bobcats have now gone over the total in 4 of their last 5, 6 of their last 8, and 11 of their last 14.  I think you’ll see them get past this total once again here tonight.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The OVER is 32-11 over the last 5 seasons in games played on Saturday with a total of 190 to 199.5 with a road team off an upset win as an underdog. That's a 74% system in favor of this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Magic -

The Magic are showing big time value as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Jazz. This favorable line has a lot to with how these two teams come into this matchup. Orlando lost at Boston by 17 in their most contest, while Jazz won by 18 as a 3.5-point dog at Miami. The key thing to keep in mind is that Utah is just 3-10 on the road and haven't won consecutive games all season. The Jazz are also a mere 2-12 in their last 14 overall.

Orlando comes in at just 10-18 overall, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that the Magic have played an absolutely brutal schedule to this point. Orlando will be playing their 29th game of the season and this will be just their 10th contest at home. Most of the Magic's struggles have come against the top teams, as they are 7-4 SU versus the bottom 14 teams in the league, which includes a 98-93 win at Utah back on Dec. 5.

Not only do I expect the Magic to be the more motivated team here, this is a bad spot for the Jazz. Utah will be playing their 4th consecutive road game in a span of just 6 days. The Jazz are also just 16-29 ATS in their last 45 games after they covered the spread last time out and a mere 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games off a road win.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play going against Utah. Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a home loss to an opponent that is off a road loss by 10 or more points are just 15-41 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!

4* Bucks/Kings NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Kings -

The Kings are expected to get back center DeMarcus Cousins tonight and I look for his return to this team a huge emotional lift. Sacramento had opened the season 9-5 before Cousins' injury and without him on the floor they have lost 8 of their last 10. While the Kings are getting healthy, Milwaukee is dealing with the loss of star rookie Jabari Parker and could potentially be without starting forward Giannis Antetokounmpo after he suffered an ankle sprain in last night's game against Portland.

Not only am I expecting the Kings to come out extremely motivated in Cousins' return, but Sacramento has a big edge here in rest. The Kings will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days, while the Bucks will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and playing their 3rd in the last 4 days overall.

Sacramento is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games when they come in having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 following a SU loss by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 80% (24-6) system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento!

3* Grizzlies/Spurs NBA Main Event on Spurs -

Even with Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard sidelines with injuries, I think the Spurs are showing some great value here as a mere 3-point home favorite. San Antonio has won 9 straight over the Grizzlies, including 107-101 win at Memphis just 12 days ago, which is the only home loss the Grizzlies have suffered all season.

The big key here is that this is a horrible spot for Memphis. The Grizzlies just hosted the Warriors in a nationally televised game on ESPN last night and laid it all on the line against Golden State, who still holds the NBA's best record at 21-3. Not only will this be the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but Memphis will be playing their 4th game in a span of just 6 days.

Another factor here is that we are catching the Spurs off a loss (95-108 at Portland). San Antonio has dropped consecutive games just once this season and that was back at the beginning of the year. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of Memphis. Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a home loss to an opponent that is off a road loss by 10 or more points are just 14-41 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 75% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio.

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Timberwolves +

There's no question the books are overvaluing the Wizards at home against the Timberwolves tonight. Minnesota's just 2-9 on the road, while Washington is 12-2 at home. However, the Wizards are only 6-7 ATS at the Verizon Center and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall. Washington has won 4 straight and 8 of 9 overall, which I believe is going to have them struggling to give a bad team like the Timberwolves the respect they deserve.

Getting up for Minnesota becomes an even bigger challenge when you factor in that this will be Washington's 6th game in the last 9 days. The Wizards are ready for a break and could find themselves looking ahead to the two days off following this contest. Look for the Timberwolves to be the more aggressive team, especially early on, which should allow them to keep this close enough to cover the large spread.

There's a nice system in play backing Minnesota as well. Road underdogs of 10 or more points who have lost at least 4 of their last 6 games against an opponent that has won at least 8 of their last 10 are 73-41 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

4* NBA Non-Conference Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Clippers OVER

The books have set mark the too low for tonight's showdown between the Clippers and Pistons. Los Angeles is going to be extra motivated here after dropping each of their last two on the road to the Wizards and Bucks. The Clippers didn't shoot well in either of those games, hitting below 43% in both contests. I look for the offense to get back on track at the Staples Center, where LA is averaging 106.7 ppg and shooting an impressive 47.4% from the field.

Another big key here to the Clippers offense having their way in this one, is the Pistons aren't going to have the energy defensively in this one. Detroit will be playing their 3rd road game in a span of 4 days. The Pistons have also struggled against LA, allowing at least 104 points in each of the last 4 meetings. In the last two at the Staple Center, these two teams have combined for 115 and 126 points, which just goes to show the value we are getting here with a total of just 204.

OVER is 28-12 in the Pistons last 40 games against a team with a winning record and 8-1 in the Clippers 9 games this season against a team that is allowing 99+ points/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. OVER is 45-12 since 1996 in games where you have a team off 2 consecutive road wins by 5 points or less in the first half of the season. That's a 79% system in favor of this one finishing above the mark. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Game of the Month on Magic +

The Raptors continue to be overvalued after their strong start to the season, which has them sitting with the best record in the Eastern Conference at 18-6. The key here is that after starting 13-2, Toronto has gone just 5-4 over their last 9 games. To no surprise this stretch has come following the injury to All-Star DeMar DeRozan.

With DeRozan still sidelined I look for Orlando to cover here and potentially win this game outright. Keep in mind that the Magic nearly upset the Raptors in Toronto earlier this season, losing 100-104 after leading by as many as 11 in the 4th quarter. Orlando has quietly been one of the better teams to back this season, as they are 16-10 ATS, including a 12-5 ATS record on the road and 7-1 ATS record over their last 8.

The big key here is that we are catching the Raptors in a bad spot. Toronto will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in last 4 days overall. Adding to that is the fact that they needed overtime to beat the Knicks yesterday. Look for Orlando to be the more aggressive team in this one as they come in off a full days rest.

There's also a big time system in play on the Magic based off their win at home against the Hawks last time out. Road teams off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog that has won 25% to 4% of their games on the season are 22-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 88% system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Celtics/76ers OVER 206

While these two teams combined for just 191 points at Philadelphia back on Nov. 19, that was the first time in the last 4 meetings where they failed to combine for at last 213 points. I believe it's created some great value here, as we have two of the worst defensive teams in the league going at it. The Celtics are allowing 108.5 ppg on the road and the 76ers are giving up 108.7 ppg at home.

Not only do we have two teams here that don't play any defense, but we have two teams that love to push the pace. The Celtics are tied with the Warriors with the fastest pace in the league at 100.4 (number of possessions/game). The next best team in terms of pace behind Boston and Golden State is the 76ers at 99.2. With the Celtics coming off a full two days of rest and the 76ers off yesterday, we should see more than enough possessions and easy baskets to push this game well over the mark of 206.

OVER is 21-7 in the Celtics last 28 against the Eastern Conference, 6-2 in their last 8 road games versus a team with a losing home record and 12-4 in their last 16 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. The OVER is also 5-2 in the 76ers last 7 home games and 33-19 in their last 52 home games after two or more consecutive losses. These trends combine to form a 69% (77-34) system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Spurs -

The Spurs are showing tremendous value here as a small road favorite against the Nuggets. Not only is San Antonio going to be extremely motivated after Friday's overtime loss at home to the lowly Lakers, but they catch the Nuggets in a tough spot. Denver just played last night in Houston and will be in the 2nd game of back-to-back set.

San Antonio has won 3 straight in the series and in their last visit to Denver they rolled the Nuggets 133-102. Going back since 1996 the Spurs are 25-11 ATS versus Denver.

The Nuggets failed to cover against the Rockets, losing 96-108 as a 7-point underdog and are now just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against the Western Conference. Denver is also 0-7 ATS this season when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Antonio on the other hand is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a SU loss and 16-5 ATS over the last 3 seasons off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 81% (38-9) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

4* Knicks/Raptors NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER

The books have set the total too high in today's matchup between the Knicks and Raptors. These two Atlantic Division rivals have a history of playing low scoring games at New York. In their two meetings at the Garden last year they combined for 178 points and 187. You have to go back to 2011 to find the last time that these two teams combined for more than 194 points in New York.

The Knicks are going to be playing with a lot of confidence here after finally snapping their skid with a 101-95 win at Boston on Friday. New York has really slowed the pace down this year. Only Miami (91.5) plays at a slower pace than the Knicks. The key here is that while they are just 3-9 SU at home, they have been able to dictate the tempo at home. New York is averaging just 91.4 ppg and allowing only 94.8 ppg at MSG this season.

UNDER is 5-1 in the Knicks last 6 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 against a division opponent. The UNDER is also 5-2 in Toronto's last 7 after a game where they covered the spread and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games following a SU win by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 83% (19-4) system backing this one to go below the mark! Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Dominator on Timberwolves/Lakers UNDER

While these are two of the worst defensive teams in the league, I think the total here has been set too high. The Lakers are coming off a draining win at San Antonio on Friday and I just don't see them looking to push the pace at all tonight. This will also be the 2nd time that these two teams have faced off in the last month and I look for a more inspired effort defensively from the Lakers than the first meeting, which resulted in a 1-point home loss.

The other key here is that both of these team are not all that great offensively. The Lakers are only averaging 97.6 ppg over their last 5 and the Timberwolves are even worse at 96.2 ppg over their last 5. The UNDER is 5-1 in Los Angeles' last 6 and 3-0 in the Timberwolves last 3. The UNDER is also a strong 15-4 in Minnesota's last 19 home games against terrible defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 48% or better from the field.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The UNDER is 41-15 when you have a total of 200 or more points with a home team that is off a loss by 10 or more points to a division rival playing on a Sunday. That's 73% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Bucks +

This might seem like a small spread for the Clippers against the Bucks, but I look for Los Angeles to struggle to come out with a whole lot of intensity in this one. The Clippers had their 9-game winning streak snapped in a 96-104 loss at Washington last night. Not only will they be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 days.

Anytime a team has a lengthy winning streak snapped like the Clippers just did, their tends to be a minor slump that follows. As for the Bucks, they are going to come out extremely motivated here and will have a big advantage coming into this contest on a full 3 days of rest. Milwaukee is just 1-5 in their last 6 games but three of those losses came on the road against the likes of the Cavs, Mavs and Thunder. The Bucks are 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS at home this season. I look for Milwaukee to keep this one close throughout and think there's an excellent chance they win this one outright.

The Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU loss and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Milwaukee is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 against an opponent who allowed 100 or more points in their last game. These trends combine to form a 76% (45-14) system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

5* NBA Pre-New Years Non-Conference Game of the Year on Hornets +

Charlotte is showing big time value here as a double-digit road dog against the Grizzlies. This is largely due to the Hornets coming in just 1-8 on the road, while Memphis is a dominant 10-1 at home. While I'm not expecting Charlotte to come away with a win, I look for them to have no problem covering this spread.

Keep in mind that these two teams have already faced off once this season. The Grizzlies were fortunate to come away with a 71-69 victory at Charlotte, as they shot just 36.2% from the field. That close defeat is going to have the Hornets believing they can win this game. You also have to like the fact that Charlotte comes in off back-to-back wins over New York and Boston. This team is a lot better than their record would indicate and are finally starting to get healthy.

The other key here is that both of these teams like to play at a slow pace, which should lead to a low-scoring game. I also like how Charlotte matches up with the Grizzlies and could actually see them having the edge here in bench production. That makes the 10-points we are getting that much more valuable, as it's going to be extremely difficult for Memphis to pull away.

Adding to all of this is a strong system supporting a fade of the Grizzlies. Favorites of 10 or more points that have won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games and are playing 6 or less games in 14 days are just 20-47 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Pacers +

The Pacers are showing some great value here as a 8.5-point underdog. Indiana is going to come out extremely motivated after losing 6 straight and are catching the Raptors in a good spot. Toronto is coming off a crushing 101-105 loss at Cleveland last time out and I look for them to struggle to match the Pacers' intensity.

It's also worth noting that Indiana has been a profitable team to back away from home. The Pacers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games and perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Toronto adds to this with a mere 3-7-1 ATS record over their last 11 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games.

Another thing to note is that while they have come in losing efforts the Pacers have been connecting from long distance. Indiana has made 9 3-pointers in each of their last two games and are 9-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come in having made 9 or more in back-to-back games.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of the Raptors. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off a road cover where they lost outright as an underdog and are playing with 2 days rest are 35-72 (33%) ATS since 1996. That's a 67% system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Magic +

I look for the Magic to come out inspired against their division rivals after what took place in Wednesday's heartbreaking 89-91 loss at home to the Wizards. Orlando blew a 89-84 lead with less than a minute to play, while giving up the game-winning basket on an inbounds alley oop with 0.8 seconds left on the clock.

Prior to that the Magic had won back-to-back road games at Utah and Sacramento and have continued to be one of the most underrated teams in the league early this season. That's evident by the fact that Orlando is just 9-15 SU and 14-10 ATS. The Magic have been especially good at covering on the road, where they are 11-5 ATS.

The key here is that this line has been inflated due to Atlanta coming in having won 8 straight and covering the spread in each of their last 5. This is simply too many points for a division game, especially when you consider that Orlando has won 2 of the last 3 with their only loss coming by 3-points. I also think it's going to be difficult for the Hawks to get up for this game, knowing that they have a game at Orlando on deck tomorrow night. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Atlanta. Home favorites off a home win by 10 or more points are just 42-80 ATS on Friday nights over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!

3* Thunder/Cavaliers NBA TNT Main Event on Thunder -

Oklahoma City is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Cavaliers. While Cleveland comes in riding a 8-game winning streak, the Thunder have won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. Due to Oklahoma City's slow start with Durant and Westbrook sidelined and just how good the Western Conference, the Thunder find themselves in desperation mode in December.

As impressive as the Cavaliers run has been, you have to keep in mind that all 8 wins have come against the Eastern Conference, with 5 of the 8 at home. Their 3 road wins came against the Knicks, Raptors (without DeRozan) and the Nets. I think it's led to Cleveland getting a little too much respect here. Not only are the Thunder one of the elite teams in the league when healthy, they have one of the best homecourt advantages.

Oklahoma City is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games against a team that's won 60% or more of their road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 81% (29-7) system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Timberwolves +

This is a great spot to back the Timberwolves at home and fade the Trail Blazers. While Portland has opened up their 5-game road trip with two wins and have won 5 straight overall, this figures to be a game where they aren't 100% motivated to play their best basketball. The Trail Blazers will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back road set and their 3rd road game in the last 4 days.

Minnesota on the other hand is going to come out desperate to get a win at home after losing 6 straight. While Portland will be playing with tired legs, the Timberwolves come in off a day of rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in 4 days. Portland is only outscoring opponents by 5.1 ppg on the road and Minnesota is only getting outscored by 7.0 ppg at home. Look for the Timberwolves to keep this one close throughout and potentially pull off the upset.

It's also worth noting that Minnesota lost by 16-points at home to Golden State last time they took the floor. The Timberwolves are a dominant 13-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons off a home loss by 10 or more points. Adding to this is a strong system in play. Underdogs of 10 or more points who have lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against an opponent that has won 8 or more of their last 10 are 205-130 ATS since 1996. That's a 61% long-term system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

4* NBA Pacific Division Game of the Month on Lakers -

This is a great spot to back the Lakers at home as a small favorite against the Kings. Los Angeles is going to come out highly motivated after dropping 3 straight, especially after losing by 17 at home last time out against the Pelicans.

While Sacramento comes in off a 101-92 home win over the Jazz, the Kings remain without star center DeMarcus Cousins. Sacramento is just 2-4 without Cousins and he's clearly a big loss against the small frontcourt of LA. Not only are the Kings without their best player, but this is brutal scheduling scenario. Sacramento will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back and their 4th in 5 days overall.

The Lakers are 19-4 (83%) ATS in their last 23 games versus teams who average 20 or less assists/game. Adding to this is that it's no secret that LA is not a great defensive team, but it's a lot easier to play defense when the opposing team doesn't share the basketball. It's also worth noting that head coach Byron Scott has went to a more defensive lineup, replacing starters Jeremy Lin and Carlos Boozer with Ed Davis and Ronnie Price. Take the Lakers!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Heat +

This might seem like a good spot to take the Suns as a small home favorite against the Heat, who have lost 4 straight, but I look for Phoenix to struggle in this one. The Suns are coming off a heartbreaking 120-121 overtime loss at the buzzer to the Clippers last night. Not only will Phoenix be playing on no rest, this will be their 4th game in 5 nights.

The Suns simply aren't going to have a whole lot left in the tank and I wouldn't be surprised if the Heat won this game outright. Miami is clearly going to be motivated after 4 straight double-digit losses and with Wade, Bosh and Deng all healthy I'm expecting the Heat to deliver one of the better performances of the season against the Suns.

Miami is 20-6 ATS over their last 26 road games with a total of 200 or more points and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. The Suns are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when playing on 0 days rest.

Adding to this is a strong system telling us to fade the Suns. Home teams who have lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, who are playing their 4th game in 5 days are just 86-139 (38%) ATS since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!