4* NBA Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Celtics -

Boston is finally healthy and come into this one having won and covered 4 straight. This team expected a lot better than to be sitting here at his time with a 12-7 record, so I don't see them taking their foot off the gas. In fact, I think this could be the beginning of a big run for the Celtics, as long as they can stay healthy. The key here is we are getting some great value with Boston as a small home favorite, due to the fact that they are playing on no rest after last night's game in Indiana. The thing is this Boston team has great depth.

At the same time, the Thunder are a team that I feel is overvalued right now. Russell Westbrook is playing exceptional, but the rest of the team isn't and they are missing a big piece to their roster in starting guard Victor Oladipo. OKC has also not been nearly as good on the road as they have at home. The Thunder are 11-6 at home, compared to just 6-6 on the road.

Celtics are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 when playing on 0 days rest. It's also worth pointing out they lost at OKC earlier this season 96-99, as they are 30-17 over the last 2 seasons when revenging a loss. Take Boston!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Magic -

I think this is a great spot to back Orlando at home. I know the Magic are just 5-10 at home this season, but the Lakers are only 5-14 on the road and this is an awful spot for Los Angeles. The Lakers will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back on the road, as they played and lost at Miami last night 107-115. It's also LA's 7th straight on the road, as they haven't been home since 12/11. Each of the last 6 have come on the east coast.

Simply put, this is a worn down Lakers team that just wants this road trip to be over with and to get home and spend some time with their families for the holiday. They also have a huge game on deck against the Clippers on Christmas Day, which is one they always get up for. Orlando's struggles at home are starting to get to them and I think we see a huge effort here after an ugly performance last night at New York. I simply don't see LA being able to match their intensity and keep in mind they are playing short-handed with Larry Nance out with an injury and Julius Randle not expected to play after returning home to be there for the birth of his child.

Home team has dominated this series, covering 5 of the last 6 in the series and the favorite is 8-3 over the last 11. Lakers are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing home record , 2-8 ATS in their last 10 off a SU loss and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100+ in their previous game. Take Orlando!

4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Pacers +

I strongly believe the books have the wrong team favored in this one. While Indiana is just 15-15 overall, they are a dominant 11-4 at home this season. Only the Warriors and Cavaliers have more home win on the season. The Pacers come in having won 5 straight at home and are going to be extremely motivated to make it 6 straight.

One of Indiana's 4 home losses came against these Celtics back in November, as Boston squeaked out a 105-99 win. What can't get overlooked in that loss for the Pacers was they didn't have the services of All-Star Paul George, who was out with an ankle injury. Not only will Indiana be out for revenge, but they will also come out with a chip on their shoulder after blowing a 15-point 2nd half lead in a 111-118 loss at New York last time out.

Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home against a team with a winning road record and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games when revenging a same season loss. Take Indiana!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Pistons -

I believe we are going to see Detroit have zero problem covering this number at home against the Grizzlies tonight. The Pistons are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after getting embarrassed 82-113 at Chicago on Monday, which followed a 15-point home loss to the Pacer and 14-point defeat at Washington.

I just don't see the Grizzlies being able to match the intensity of Detroit in this one. Memphis just played an overtime game at home against the Celtics last night, which they lost 109-112. It has to be a tough loss to swallow, as they led by 14 at the half and still had a 9-point advantage going into the 4th quarter. The Grizzlies had 5 different players log 30+ minutes. It wouldn't come as a surprise at all if they rested some players tonight as they likely want to be fresh for Friday's division home game against the Rockets.

Pistons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games after losing 3 of their last 4 and 13-2 ATS at home when coming in having lost 4 of their last 5. They are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 at home against a team with a winning record. Take Detroit!

5* NBA Central Division Play of the Month on Bucks/Cavs UNDER

We had the UNDER in last night's game which was a tough loss, as the two teams finished UNDER the total in regulation, but the game went to OT and pushed it over the mark. On the bright side, I believe has kept tonight's total higher than it should be. More time than not, these second games of a home-and-home set on back-to-back nights end up being a much lower scoring game than the first time around. The fact that these two had to play an extra 5 mines last night, only helps us here.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the Cavs decided to rest some players here, as they want to be fresh for Sunday's big Christmas Day showdown against the Warriors (have to play Brooklyn Friday). Note that J.R. Smith is already listed as doubtful and Kevin Love is questionable and likely won't play.

UNDER is 35-18 in Cleveland's last 53 home games after giving up 105 or more points in 2 straight games and 13-3 in their last 16 after covering the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. UNDER is also 5-1 in the Bucks last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest and 10-4 in their last 14 against division opponents. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Cavs/Bucks UNDER

These two teams recently played in Milwaukee on 11/29. The Bucks won that game 118-101. While that game finished over the total of 213.5, we find an even shorter total in the rematch. For good reason. Cleveland didn't show any interest on the defensive side of the ball in that last meeting and the Cavs aren't a team that takes losing lightly. They are going to be out to make a statement here against the Bucks and have really been locking down defensively here of late.

Milwaukee is also going to be all business in this one, as they know they are going to get a great effort here from Cleveland and want to prove that their earlier win was no fluke. Milwaukee's defense has been hit or miss, but they have consistently showed up on that side of the ball against division opponents, as they are allowing just 94.4 ppg against their Central rivals this season. The Bucks also catch a break here, as the Cavs will be minus a huge weapon on offense in Kevin Love, who is doubtful with a knee injury.

UNDER is 35-17 in Milwaukee's last 52 after a SU win, 10-3 in their last 13 against the Central Division and 4-0 in their last 4 following a win by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Knicks -

This might seem like a lot of points for the Knicks to be laying, given they have lost 3 straight and are fresh off a 13-point loss to the Nuggets, but this is an ideal spot for New York to bounce back. The Knicks will be returning home, where they are 9-4 this season and have two full days off to regroup and get their legs back. They will also be welcoming back starting point guard Derrick Rose, whose recent absence had a lot to do with their struggles.

While New York is primed for a big bounce back effort, the Pacers are going to have a difficult time playing well here. Indiana will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, after a grueling 107-105 win at home last night against the Wizards. This will also be the Pacers 4th game in the last 5 days. To top it off, they are playing short-handed with Ellis and Stuckey both sidelined, plus are just 4-10 on the road this season.

Indiana is a mere 3-11 ATS this season off a SU win and 8-20 ATS over the last 3 years when playing on the road after scoring 100 or more in 2 straight games. Knicks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 110 or more points and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after playing their last two games as a dog. Take New York!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wizards/Pacers OVER

I think these two teams will have no problem eclipsing this high total tonight. The Wizards have seen the OVER cash in 5 straight games, all of which seen a combined score of 213 or more. Washington is averaging 111.8 ppg during this stretch and giving up 108.2 ppg. I don't see the Pacers being able to keep Washington's offense in check here. Indiana is in a big flat spot here defensively, as they have played 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 on the road and are short-handed right now with both Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey sidelined with injuries.

The key here is that Indiana still has the fire-power offensively to take advantage of Washington's poor defense. On top of that, the Wizards don't figure to bring much intensity defensively in this one. Washington just played yesterday at home against the Clippers and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights.

OVER is 23-9 in the Wizards last 32 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 14-3 in their last 17 road games when listed as a dog of 6 or less. OVER is also 10-1 in Washington's last 11 road games after playing 2 straight games as an underdog. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Grizzlies -

The Grizzlies are showing exceptional value here at home against the Jazz. Memphis will be all business after an ugly 92-96 loss at home to the Kings last time out. They also will be getting back the glue to their team in point guard Mike Conley, which is key here, as Utah continues to be without their starting point guard in George Hill.

The Jazz come in having won 10 of 12, but a lot of that has to do with a very favorable schedule. During this stretch, Utah has played just two road games and they were against inferior teams in the Timberwolves and Lakers. This is their first real road test since going to Houston back on 11/19 and I think it's going to be difficult for them to play well against a talented Memphis team that owns a 11-5 record at home this season.

Grizzlies are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games after losing 2 of their last 3, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against the Western Conference. Utah on the other hand is a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Memphis!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Pacers/Pistons UNDER

I think both of these teams are primed for a poor offensive showing in this one. Both are going to be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and there's a little extra motivation defensively here with this being a division matchup. Indiana is playing without one of their top offensive weapons in Monta Ellis and his absence has really improved their defense. Detroit on the other hand just played last night in Washington, where the defense failed to show up in a 108-122 defeat. I look for a much better effort defensively at home, where the Pistons are only giving up 90.7 ppg on the season.

UNDER is 26-6 in the Pacers last 32 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 10-2 in their last 12 when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Pistons last 9 as a home favorite, 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on 0 days of rest and 7-3 in their last 10 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Bulls -

The Bucks jumped on the Bulls early at home last night and cruised to a 108-97 win, easily covering the spread as a pick'em. I wasn't the least bit surprised to see Chicago come out flat, as they knew they were going to get Milwaukee on their home court tonight. The biggest thing with these home-and-home matchups is making sure you get at least a split. So while the Bulls are going to come out extremely motivated here, the Bucks will struggle to bring that same intensity they had last night.

Another big key here is this Chicago team has shown that when they are motivated and want to play well, more times than not they deliver. Prime examples being their recent home wins over both the Cavs and Spurs. It's also worth pointing out the Bucks aren't nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Milwaukee is 9-6 at home, compared to 3-6 on the road. The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games and 0-6 in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Milwaukee is also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Chicago!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pistons -

I'm going to back the Pistons again here as a small road favorite against the Wizards. Detroit's a team that I believe is only going to keep getting better, as they just recently got back starting point guard Reggie Jackson. The Pistons are just 6-9 on the road on the season, but have been playing much better on the highway of late. Detroit is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Washington has won 3 of their last 4, but I'm still not buying this team. The Wizards have two talented guards in Wall and Beal, but the rest of the roster is nothing to get excited about. A lot of that has to do with these two taking a ton of shots and not being all that efficient. When you don't share the ball like the Wizards, you are easy to defend and Detroit is been playing lock down defense of late, allowing just 90.0 ppg over their last 5.

Last time out the Wizards won 109-106 over division rival Charlotte as a 2-point dog. That only adds value to the Pistons. Washington is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 off a cover and a mere 4-15 ATS in their last 19 off a win by 3-points or less. Take Detroit!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Nets/Magic OVER

This one has a shootout written all over it, as two struggling teams face off Friday night with Nets (7-17) visiting the Magic (11-16). Anytime Brooklyn is involved in a game, you have to lean to the over, especially on the road. The OVER is 17-7 in the Nets 24 games overall this season and 10-1 in their 11 road games. Why is that? Brooklyn leads the league in pace, averaging 103.9 possessions per game and have shown the ability to score at 106.5 ppg. On top of that, they rank 28th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency and come in giving up 118.5 ppg.

You might be thinking Orlando isn't a great bet here, as the Magic come in averaging just 96.6 ppg overall and a mere 94.8 ppg at home. It's all about Orlando's current form. The Magic are averaging 105.4 ppg over their last 5 and have seen a combined score of 121 or more in each of their last 3 games. Take the OVER!

5* Knicks/Warriors TNT Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER

I look for the Warriors to light up the scoreboard tonight against the Knicks. Golden State is coming off a 5-game road trip, where they only averaged 107.8 ppg. That might seem like a lot, but this is a team that's averaging 117.8 ppg on the season. They have been electric at home, scoring 123.9 ppg. The Knicks have been better than a lot of people expected, but have struggled when facing the elite teams. They simply aren't a good enough defensive team to put up a serious fight here.

The key here is the Warriors up tempo offense allows for their opponents to put up a big number. Golden State is allowing 109.2 ppg at home, as opponents are averaging 90 shot attempts against them. With just 1-day off after that 5-game road trip, I just don't see the all out defensive intensity that would be needed to keep this from going over the total.

It's also worth pointing out that all 5 of the Warriors game on their road trip went under the total, which only adds to the value here, as the OVER is 23-9 in their last 32 after 5 or more consecutive games going under the total. OVER is also 21-7 in the Knicks last 28 road games off a close road loss by 3 or less (lost 111-113 in OT at Phoenix on Tuesday). Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational ATS Blowout on Bucks -

Now is the time to strike with Milwaukee as a small home favorite against the Bulls. The Bucks are going to be all business in this one, as they come in having lost 3 straight with the last game being an embarrassing 22-point loss at Toronto. This games simply means more to Milwaukee, as these two will turn around and play in Chicago tomorrow night, so the Bulls know win or lose here they get to take care of business at home.

The Bulls got off to a strong start, but have been slumping a bit of late. While Butler and Wade continue to play at a high level, they aren't getting a lot of production from the rest of the roster. The offense can become stagnant, which we saw first hand in their last game against the Timberwolves. Chicago scored 38 in the first quarter and led by 20+ points, only to score 18, 19 and 19 over the final 3 quarters. Milwaukee is a much better team at home and are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Take Milwaukee!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Pistons -

I have no problem laying this small number on the road with Detroit against a bad Mavericks team. The Pistons have been playing some of their best basketball here of late, as they are 7-4 in their last 11. I look for them to be extra motivated here after an embarrassing showing at home in a 79-97 loss to the 76ers. Detroit hasn't lost back-to-back games since the middle of November and I don't expect that streak to end here.

Dallas is still without three key pieces in Nowitzki, Barea, and Bogut and are going to struggle to be competitive without them in the lineup. The Mavericks are getting some love here off a 20-point blowout win at home against the Nuggets, but they haven't won back-to-back games since the beginning of November. Last time they followed up a win over the Pacers with a 22-point blowout loss to the Rockets. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Detroit laid a similar type of beating on them here.

Pistons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 off an upset loss as a favorite and have won these games by almost 8.0 ppg. Take Detroit!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Kings/Rockets OVER

These two teams are poised to light up the scoreboard tonight. Houston likes to play at a frantic pace and should have no problem pushing the tempo here, as they will be playing their third straight at home and just their second game in the last 4 days. It certainly helps facing a Kings team that has some major holes on the defensive side of the ball, as they are giving up 103.5 ppg. Sacramento is also one of the worst teams in the league at defending the 3-point shot, which is what the Rockets do better than anybody in the league, as they come into this one having made an NBA-record 10 or more 3-points in 24 straight games.

When the offense is rolling, Houston doesn't have to worry as much on the defensive side of the ball and we saw that first hand in their last game at home against the Nets, where they allowed Brooklyn to put up 118 points on 52.5% shooting. Sacramento is a very capable offensive team and should have no problem eclipsing the 100-point mark and pushing this game into the 220's.

OVER is 15-4 in the Rockets last 19 against a bad team that's won between 25%-40% of their games and 14-4 in their last 18 home games after playing their previous game as a home favorite. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Lakers -

I'm going to back the Lakers here as a small road favorite against the Nets. Los Angeles is desperate for a win, as they come in having lost 7 straight. While you could argue the Lakers aren't much better than the Nets and shouldn't be favored, I believe there's a significant talent gap here, especially now that Russell and Young have returned from injuries. Brooklyn simply doesn't haven't great talent to work with and it's really starting to show in their results of late, as they have struggled just to keep games competitive.

We got a great system in play backing the Lakers to cover here on the road based on this small line we are getting. Road teams that have won between 25% to 40% of their games with a line of +3 to -3 off 6 or more consecutive loses are 26-6 (81%) against the spread since 1996 when playing against a team with a losing record. Take Los Angeles!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Warriors -

I look for the Warriors to lay it on the Pelicans tonight. Golden State has failed to cover their last 3 and simply haven't shot the ball up to their standards during this stretch. They should have no problem getting their offense going against the Pelicans. New Orleans is giving up 108.7 ppg at home and in their last 2 have allowed 133 and 119 to the Clippers and Suns.

While the Pelicans have a superstar in Anthony Davis, they don't have the weapons around him to get into a shootout with this high-powered Warriors attack. Golden State should put up 120+ here and I just don't see New Orleans being able to keep pace. New Orleans is a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 55 or more points in the 1st half of their last two games and 4-16 ATS in their last 20 off a upset win as a road underdog. Take Golden State!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on OVER

I look for a lot of offense in tonight's game between the Bulls and Timberwolves. Chicago comes in averaging 105.6 ppg at home and should see their offense improve over what it's been of late with the recent return of key reserve Doug McDermott. On top of that, they will facing a Minnesota team that has struggled on the defensive side of the ball. The Timberwolves are giving up 109.8 ppg on the road and come in having allowed 100+ points in each of their last 9.

While Minnesota isn't playing much defense, they are getting it done on the offensive side of the ball, as they are scoring 103.9 ppg. Chicago is a decent defensive team, but are trending in the wrong direction. They are allowing 102.4 ppg over their last 5 and have given up 100+ points in 5 of their last 6.

OVER is 33-18 in the Timberwolves last 51 road games, 16-4 in their last 20 non-conference road games and 9-1 in their last 10 road games after giving up 60 or more points in the 1st half of their last game. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nets/Rockets OVER

I'm not worried about this big total here, as this game has a shootout written all over it. Houston comes in averaging 110.8 ppg at home and will be facing a Brooklyn defense that is giving up 118.2 ppg on the road. The Nets are a much better offensive team that people give them credit for and come in averaging 106.0 ppg. Houston is allowing just 100.0 ppg at home, but I look for them to struggle to bring the effort defensively here against a bad team, who is going to let them do whatever they want offensively.

Pace is a key thing when looking at totals and this one should feature a frantic pace, as the Nets come in 2nd in the league in pace this season and Houston is a respectable 11th. Another big key with the Rockets offense, is they are 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and the Nets are 29th in defensive efficiency.

OVER is 14-4 in the Nets last 18 against teams who teams who attempt 18 or more 3 points shots/game and 9-1 in their last 10 against teams who are scoring 103+ ppg. OVER is also 14-4 in the Rockets last 18 when playing against a bad team (Winning Percentage of 25% to 40%). Take the OVER!

4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Bucks +

Milwaukee is showing some great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Raptors. While the Bucks come in having lost 2 straight and 3 of 4 overall, they have been playing some of their best basketball here of late. In fact, Milwaukee hasn't lost a game by more than double-digits since losing 75-86 at Dallas way back on 11/6. It's not like they haven't been playing good teams during this stretch, as they have played the Warriors, Raptors, Cavs and Spurs during this run.

That game against the Raptors saw them lose 99-105 at home and they hung right there with Toronto from the opening tip. I just think they are going to want this game more, as the Raptors are poised for a bit of a letdown here after getting a much-needed two-day break over the weekend.

Bucks are 40-24 ATS in their last 64 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and  21-9 ATS in their last 30 after 2 or more consecutive losses. Take Milwaukee!

4* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pelicans +

I really like the Pelicans in this spot. They come in having lost 5 straight, but it's been a really tough stretch, as two of those defeats came against the Clippers and two more were against a couple of surging teams in the Grizzlies and Thunder. New Orleans rested up some guys in last night's 105-133 blowout loss to the Clippers, with the intention of laying it all on the line in this game against the Suns. 

Phoenix is certainly a team they can beat on the road. The Suns are 4-12 SU in their last 16 games overall and are just 3-6 SU at home this season. Phoenix has also not fared well when listed as a favorite this season. It's only happened 4 times, but all 4 resulted in the Suns getting destroyed. They lost 94-113 at home to the Kings as a 3-point favorite, 104-122 at home to the Nets as a 4.5-point favorite, 105-120 at Philadelphia as a 1.5-point favorite and 114-120 at home to the Nuggets as a 2.5-point favorite. 

This is also a really great matchup for the Pelicans, as Phoenix is a guard-oriented team and don't have the talent inside to counter Anthony Davis. Suns are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 after winning their previous game and 1-10 ATS when coming off a victory of 6-points or less. Take New Orleans! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Wizards -

I had the Bucks last night in a crushing loss, as Milwaukee blew a 20-point halftime lead at home in a 110-114 loss as a mere 3-point favorite. That's the kind of defeat that is hard to bounce back from, especially when you are playing on the road on no rest. I look for the Bucks to come out flat here, which is something they have done on the regular when playing on the road, as Milwaukee is just 3-4 on the highway, scoring a mere 94.7 ppg.

I know Washington has been a disappointment thus far, but I actually like that, as we know we are going to get a big effort here from the Wizards on their home floor, as they continue to try and get their season turned around. Washington is also playing with some confidence, as they knocked off the Nuggets 92-85 on Thursday and it's the defensive effort that has me excited, as this is a team that had given up 100+ in each of their previous 4. The lack of effort defensively is a big reason why they are sitting at 8-13. I look for another strong showing on that side of the ball, which should be all the Wizards need to win here going away. Take Washington!

4* NBA Vegas ATS Shocker on Blazers

The Pacers continue to be one of the biggest disappointments early on, as they come into this one sitting at 11-12 through their first 23 games and fresh off an ugly loss at Dallas, who even with the win are tied with the 76ers with a league-low 5 wins. While Indiana has played better at home, this is a really tough spot for them, as the game against the Mavs last night finished up a 5-game west coast trip. So not only are they poised to be flat off the long road trip, but they are playing on no rest.

Portland is another team that hasn't quite lived up to expectations, but I like them in this spot. The Blazers are desperate for a win after dropping their last two at Memphis and Milwaukee in close defeats. However, the biggest key here is the domination of Portland in this series. They have won 5 straight against the Pacers, including a 131-109 blowout win at home to close out November.

Pacers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games after a road trip of 7 or more days and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Take Portland!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks -

I'll gladly back the Bucks at home against the slumping Hawks. Atlanta was able to snap a 7-game losing streak with a 103-95 win at home against the Heat, but that's nothing to get excited about, as Miami was missing half their roster. The Hawks are now just 2-10 in their last 12 after starting out the season 9-2. While Atlanta is trending down, Milwaukee comes in playing some of their best basketball of the season. The Bucks have won 5 of 6, with the only loss coming against the Spurs at home by a single point. Milwaukee bounced back two nights later and defeated the Blazers 115-107.

When things are going bad in Atlanta it's a good idea to keep fading them, as the Hawks are just 3-16 ATS in their last 19 under head coach Budenholzer when they come into a contest having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. The Hawks are also just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference.

The Bucks on the other hand are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when playing with 1 day of rest. It's also worth pointing out the Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 in the series and the home team has covered 4 of the last 5. Take Milwaukee!

4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Magic +

I like the value we are catching here with Orlando as a decently priced road dog against the Hornets. This is a tough spot for Charlotte, who is in a bit of a letdown spot here off a big home win over the Pistons, where they were playing with revenge from a loss just 8 days ago and have an even bigger game on deck tomorrow night at Cleveland, where they will be playing with revenge from a hard fought 93-100 defeat at Cleveland earlier this season.

The Magic on the other hand are primed for a big bounce back performance following an ugly 2nd half in a 87-117 defeat at home to the Celtics last time out. Orlando was outscored 68-37 in the 2nd half after leading by 1-point at the half. Prior to that defeat, this Magic team was playing some of their best basketball of the season, as they had won 3 straight and 4 of 5 with the only loss being a 1-point defeat at Memphis. That stretch included a 12-point win at San Antonio and 6-point victory at Detroit.

The Magic are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 December road games, spanning the last 2 seasons, and are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 after playing their previous game as a home dog. Charlotte is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing against a team with a losing record. Take Orlando!

4* NBA Spurs/Bulls TNT ATS Annihilator on Bulls +

This Bulls team has been up and down this season and come into this game having lost 3 straight, so they are not getting a ton of love here against a Spurs team that is a perfect 13-0 SU on the road this season. I believe that has created some great value here with Chicago, who I'm confident is going to come out as motivated as they have all season in this spot. Not only are the Bulls looking to snap their losing streak, but this is a prime time home game on TNT against an elite team. This is a game Chicago will use as a measuring stick, much like they did in their last win in a 111-105 win at home over the Cavaliers as a 1.5-point dog.

The big problem for the Bulls of late has been their production from their reserves and a lot of that has to do with the absence of Doug McDermott and Michael Carter-Williams. While Carter-Williams is likely still a couple weeks from returning, there's a good chance McDermott is available tonight, as they recalled him last night from the D-League. While Chicago could be getting a key piece back, there's a decent chance the Spurs are going to be without starting point guard Tony Parker for this one. This is also a tough spot for San Antonio, playing their 3rd straight road game in a span of just 4 days.

Bulls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after losing 4 of their last 5, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games played on Thursday. Take Chicago!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Grizzlies -

I like the value here with Memphis, who continues to be undervalued against the spread here of late. The Grizzlies come in having won 4 straight 11 of 14 overall. The reason we are getting value, is they are missing key players like Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons, James Ennis and Vince Carter, but they have a number of guys step up.

I like their chances of adding to their recent run here at home, where they are a solid 8-4 to open the season. Portland is a team a lot of people were high on, but have not been playing well. They had their 3-game winning streak snapped last night in a 107-115 loss at Milwaukee, as their defensive woes continued to rear their ugly head. Hard to see a big effort defensively playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 3rd in the last 4 days overall.

This is also a big revenge spot for the Grizzlies, who haven't forgot about an earlier 94-100 loss at home to the Blazers back in early November. Portland is just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100+ in their previous game, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 on the road, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when playing on no rest. Take Memphis!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Nuggets -

I like the value here with Denver as a short road favorite against a Nets team that has really struggled to be competitive of late. Brooklyn is a mere 1-10 in their last 11 and all 10 losses came by at least 5 points, with the majority coming by double-digits. So while the Nuggets aren't a great team, this is an opponent they can take advantage of. We should also see a big effort here from Denver, who comes in off a much-needed 106-98 win at Philadelphia.

Beating up on road teams that don't play defense has been a specialty of the Nuggets over the last few years. Denver is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams who are allowing 103+ points/game. Sure, Brooklyn can score, but that also favors the Nuggets against the spread, as they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams who are scoring 103+ points/game.

It's also worth pointing out the Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games with a total of 200 or more, while Brooklyn is a mere 3-15 ATS in their last 18 after a game with a combined score of 225 or more. Take Denver!

4* NBA Revenge Game of the Week on Hornets -

Charlotte will be all business when they take the floor tonight against the Pistons, as they get a chance at some big time revenge against the Pistons. These two teams just recently played in Charlotte on 11/29 (8 days ago) and Detroit rolled the Hornets 112-89. What will get overlooked by the public in that loss, is the fact that Charlotte was playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 4th game in 5 nights, while the Pistons came in a full 2 days of rest.

This time it's the Hornets who have the scheduling edge. Charlotte had yesterday off and are playing just their 2nd game in the last 4 days. Detroit on the other is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after a huge home game last night against division rival Chicago and it will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days. It's also worth pointing out that the Hornets are finally healthy again and should get back to the form that had them open the season 6-1.

Hornets are 29-16 ATS in their last 45 when revenging a loss of 10 or more opponents, while the Pistons are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 and a mere 4-8 SU & ATS on the road this season. Take Charlotte!

5* NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Month on Celtics -

I really like the value here with Boston laying a short number here on the road against the Magic. The Celtics could be without starting point guard Isaiah Thomas, but are well equipped to play without him, as Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier and Avery Bradley can all bring the ball up the court if needed.

Orlando comes in having won 3 straight, but two of those wins came against bad team in the 76ers and Wizards and the other was against the Pistons in a huge flat spot after a long road trip and big game against the Bulls on deck. Now it's the Magic who are in a flat spot, as they just played 5 straight on the road and have to return home on no rest after playing last night in Washington.

While Orlando is poised for a bad showing, we should get a strong effort here from the Celtics off a 1-point loss at Houston. Boston hasn't lost back-to-back games since early November and are 4-1 ATS in L5 off a loss. They are also a solid 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS (5-1 L6)  on the road, while the Magic are just 4-6 SU and 2-7 ATS at home this season. Celtics are also a solid 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Eastern Conference. Take Boston!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Suns/Jazz OVER

I think the books have set the bar way to low here on the total for tonight's game between the Suns and Jazz. While Utah is only allowing 91.8 ppg at home and just 95.1 ppg on the season, they haven't been locking down opponents of late, giving up 102.5 ppg over their last 5. Phoenix is a team that is capable of scoring on anyone and come in having put up 100+ in all but 4 games this season. They are really clicking at the moment, as they are shooting 49.6% from the field in their last 5 games.

Utah is also in great form offensively right now, which is part of the reason they haven't been getting after teams defensively. The Jazz have scored at least 105 points in 5 straight games and will have no problem keeping that streak going against the Suns, who are giving up 113.2 ppg on the season and 115.2 ppg on the road.

OVER is 12-4 in the Suns 16 games this season against teams who average at least 18 3-point attempts per game, 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 100 or more points in 3 straight games, 11-2 in their last 13 when playing on 2 days of rest and 7-0 this season against teams with a winning record. OVER is also 8-0 in Utah's last 8 when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks +

Milwaukee is showing some great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Spurs. The Bucks come into this one playing their best basketball of the season. Milwaukee has won 4 straight, which includes a 118-101 blowout win at home over the Cavaliers. I expect to see that same intensity when the Bucks take the floor here against the Spurs.

San Antonio comes in having won 11 of their 12 games, but are not blowing teams out like they have in years past. Out of those 11 wins, only one of them came by double-digits and that was a mere 12-point win at Washington. This has also been a very favorable stretch for the Spurs, as they haven't faced a lot of good teams during their recent run. I think Milwaukee is not only capable of keeping this close enough to cover, but can certainly win this game outright.

Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when playing on 1 day of rest and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against the Western Conference. Spurs are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing with 2 days of rest. Take Milwaukee!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Magic +

Great price to back Orlando here against the Pistons. This is a bit of a flat spot for Detroit, who have had just one day off following a big 4-game road trip and have a big division game on deck against the Bulls Tuesday. I believe there's value here due to the fact that Detroit won and covered each of their last 3. Keep in mind the Pistons were only a 4-point home favorite against the Magic earlier this season.

Orlando comes in just 2-5 in their last 7, but both wins have come in their last 3 games. They have also been playing better than their record would suggest during this stretch. Their largest loss during this stretch is just 8-points, with 4 of the 5 defeats coming by 5 points or less. The Magic did lose that earlier meeting and will want revenge against the Pistons.

Detroit is just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 when they come in having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and the Magic are 29-15 ATS in their last 44 road games in the 1st half of the season over the last 3 years. Take Orlando!

4* NBA Late Night Over/Under Total Dominator on Heat/Blazers OVER

I'm expecting a shootout in Portland Saturday night between the Heat and Blazers. Miami has been one of the better defensive teams early on this season, as they come into this one allowing just 98.8 ppg. However, this is not a good spot for the Heat and the effort needed to play well defensively. Miami will be playing their 3rd straight road games in 4 days and 7th road game in their last 9 games overall. It's about as tough of a road slate as you will find, especially playing their last two at Utah and Denver on back-to-back nights and then having to turn around in play in Portland.

The defense has already showed signs of slipping here lately, as they have allowed 100+ points in 6 of their last 8. Hard to see them slowing down a potent Portland offense on the road, as the Blazers come in averaging 113.3 ppg at home and have failed to eclipse to the 100-point mark just twice all season. The Blazers are also awful defensively, as they have only held two opponents under the century mark, giving up 100+ in each of their 14 games. Miami's offense has scored 100+ in 4 straight, so they are in good form and should have no problem making it 5 in a row. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Nets +

Big revenge spot for Brooklyn and we are getting great value here with them catching near double-digits. The Nets will take on the Bucks in Milwaukee after the two just played in Brooklyn on Thursday. The Bucks took that one 111-93 behind an uncharacteristic hot shooting from long distance. Milwaukee went 15-34 (44.1%) from 3-point range. Well above their season averages, as they are only making 9 3-pointers a game and shooting just 34.4% from behind the arc on the season.

Milwaukee is clearly playing better basketball right now, but they are simply way overvalued in this spot. The Bucks have won 3 straight and will find it hard to get motivated to play a bad Brooklyn team for the 2nd time in 3 nights. Keep in mind that while Milwaukee is 6-4 at home, they are actually getting outscored on average on their home floor this season (103.2-104.0).

The Bucks are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after 3 or more consecutive wins and a mere 3-17 ATS in their last 20 home games after 2 or more straight up wins. Take Brooklyn!

5* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Nuggets -

This is an ideal spot to back Denver at home against the Rockets. You might be asking yourself why Houston is a dog against a team that has 5 fewer wins them after they just knocked off the Warriors last night in Golden State. The answer is this this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Rockets. It was going to be hard enough bouncing back from that game against the Warriors, but add in the fact that it took double-overtime and they simply aren't going to have much left in the tank for the Nuggets.

Only adding value is that Denver is one of the more difficult places to play in the second leg of a back-to-back, as the thin air only makes it that much harder for teams to play well when fatigued. It wouldn't shock me if Houston decided to just throw in the towel here and rest some players, as Harden, Anderson and Ariza all logged at least 43 minutes last night. Even Eric Gordon off the bench put in 39 minutes. Whether they play or not, I look for Denver to win here comfortably.

The Nuggets haven't played up to their potential early on, as they are just 7-11, but a lot of that had to do with injuries. Denver is finally starting to get healthy. I've also really been impressed with rookie reserve Jamal Murray, who just took down the Rookie of the Month honors in the west.

Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 100 or more points in 5 straight games. Take Denver!

4* NBA Revenge Game of the Week on Wolves +

I really like the Timberwolves in this spot. Minnesota just lost at home to New York on Tuesday 104-106, as they two play a home-and-home set. There's almost always value in the team that lost the first meeting in these home-and-home deals and it comes down to motivation. Minnesota is going to be out for revenge and will put everything they have into winning this game, while the Knicks will find it difficult to get up for a team they just beat, especially when it's a sub-par team like the Timberwolves.

There were plenty of positives in the loss for Minnesota on Tuesday. The biggest being the ease of which Karl Anthony Towns scored a career-high 47 points to go along with 18 rebounds and 3 blocks. New York had no answer for the big man the first time around and I don't see it being any different in the second meeting. The big difference in the game was 3-point shooting, as the Knicks poured in 13 3-pointers to the Timberwolves 4. I look for a more even go of things in the long-distance shooting this time around and for Minnesota to leave here with a victory.

Minnesota is 23-8 ATS in their last 31 road games when revenging a loss and 17-4 ATS in this spot when they allowed 100 or more points in defeat. Timberwolves have also been great at covering on the road when not playing with revenge, as they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Minnesota!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Jazz -

I got no problem laying a big number on the Jazz at home against the Heat tonight. Miami comes in off an impressive 106-98 win at Denver last night, yet are getting double-digits? That really tells you all you need to know about how bad a spot this is for the Heat. It's hard enough playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. It will be extremely difficult for Miami, who is short-handed right now with Josh Richardson, Justice Winslow and Dion Waiters all sidelined. On top of that, there arguably isn't a tougher back-to-back road slate than going from the thin air of Denver to the thin air of Utah.

We are also backing a Jazz team that has been absolutely rolling of late. Utah has won 4 straight. All 3 wins at home during this stretch have come by at least 19 points. They beat Denver 108-83, Atlanta 95-68 and Houston 120-101. Keep in mind Utah is finally getting healthy and this a team that I had pegged to be one of the 4 best teams in the west. They already won 102-91 at Miami earlier this season and they are one of the few teams that really matches up well with the Heat. Miami's best player is Whiteside and Utah has arguably the best counter to him inside in Gobert, who is an absolute beast on the defensive side of the ball.

Jazz are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 when playing against a team with a losing record, while the Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing on the road against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Utah!

5* NBA No Limit Game of the Week on Bulls -

This is going to seem like a big number for Chicago to be laying at home against a Lakers team that has surprised early this season, but the situation calls for a blowout win by the Bulls. Chicago is rested up and ready to get back to action after a 4-day break following their 6-game road trip. Los Angeles on the other hand is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, as they played in New Orleans last night. This is also the Lakers 3rd game in the last 4 days and 6th in the last 9.

LA has been trending in the wrong direction of late, as they are just 2-5 in their last 7. It doesn't figure to get much better going forward, as the Lakers continue to be without starting point guard D'Angelo Russell. They also figure to be without Nick Young, who is doubtful with an ankle injury. It also wouldn't come as a surprise if they decided to sit out Julius Randle in a back-to-back scenario, as he just returned from a knee injury.

These two teams recently played in Los Angeles and the Bulls won 118-110, which I think is a good sign of what's to come here. Keep in mind Chicago won by 8 playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, which was also their 4th straight on the road and 3rd in a 4 day stretch. With the Lakers injuries and the Bulls strong play at home (4-1), this should get ugly in a hurry. Take Chicago!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pelicans -

Big revenge spot for the Pelicans and I expect them to deliver with a blowout win at home against the Lakers. New Orleans hosted the Lakers back on 11/12 and were embarrassed in a 99-126 defeat. One thing to keep in mind with that defeat is Pelicans star Anthony Davis missed a key portion of that game. With the Lakers up just 63-62 in the 3rd quarter, Davis was sidelined with a back injury. LA immediately went on a 14-0 run and never looked back.

Since that loss the Pelicans have gone 5-3 with a perfect 4-0 mark at home. The return of point guard Jrue Holiday has this team playing like the playoff contender we expected. This is a statement game for New Orleans and while the Lakers are playing well, most of their success has come at home (3-5 away). LA simply doesn't play any defense on the road, as they come in giving up 113.0 ppg away from home. That's a big problem here, as the Pelicans are scoring 110.7 ppg at home. Take New Orleans!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Hornets -

I like the value here with Charlotte laying a small number at home against the Pistons. We are getting a shorter line than we normally would, due to the Hornets playing on no rest after playing last night in Memphis. The key here is Charlotte cruised to a win, beating the Grizzlies 104-85 and were able to avoid playing their stars big minutes. The Hornets have now won 2 straight and I see now reason for a letdown here, as they had gone just 2-6 in their previous 8.

Detroit comes in off a 88-106 loss at Oklahoma City as a mere 4.5-point dog, as the Pistons road woes continued. They are now just 1-8 SU and 1-8 ATS on the highway this season and their struggles away from home can be pinpointed to their defense. Detroit is allowing just 97.1 ppg on the season, but are giving up a staggering 105.0 ppg on the road. Charlotte doesn't get the credit for being a great offensive team, but they can light up the scoreboard. The Hornets are averaging 106.1 ppg at home and 105.7 ppg overall.

Charlotte has also been a great team to back off a blowout win, as the Hornets are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 after a win by 15 or more points. Take Charlotte!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Jazz -

I like the value here with Utah as a small road favorite against the Timberwolves. The Jazz have bounced back from their 4-game mini slump with back-to-back blowout wins over the Nuggets (108-83) and Hawks (95-68). As you can see, the defense was exceptional in both of those games and I look for them to keep it going on that side of the ball against  Minnesota team that has struggled offensively of late. The Timberwolves scored 102 points in their last game against the Warriors, but prior to that had failed to reach the 100-pt mark in 4 straight.

If the Jazz can keep Minnesota's offense in check, they should have no problem here winning and doing so without much problem. The Timberwolves are giving up 103.5 ppg and opponents are shooting 47% against them. Another key here is that Minnesota isn't a great 3-point shooting team and that's only going to make it that much harder for them to score, as the Jazz have an elite interior defense anchored by big man Rudy Gobert.

Utah also has a nice scheduling advantage here. They will be playing with a full 2-days of rest. While Minnesota was off yesterday, they will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Jazz are 31-18 ATS in their last 49 against a team with a losing record and 17-6 ATS in their last 23 as a road favorite. Take Utah!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Thunder/Knicks OVER

These two should have no problem eclipsing the total in this one. Oklahoma City comes in having scored 100+ points in 7 straight games and 10 of their last 11 overall. It's no secret that the Thunder go as Russell Westbrook goes and this is an ideal matchup for him, as Derrick Rose is not a defensive minded player and will get exposed whenever the two are matched up. The Knicks also don't have anyone else they can go to to keep Westbrook in check.

Westbrook on full go will have the Thunder playing at a fast pace here and force the Knicks to play up to their tempo. The key here is that New York is clicking offensively right now. The Knicks have scored 100+ in 6 straight games and have allowed 100+ in 5 of those. It's also worth noting that the defensive intensity doesn't figure to be there for either side in a non-conference game with both sides playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days.

OVER is 5-1 in OKC's last 6 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 against an opponent that allowed 100+ points in their previous game. OVER is also 5-1 in the Knicks last 6 when facing a team that scored 100+ points in their last game and 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Late Night ATS Bailtout on Hawks -

Atlanta is showing some decent value here as a relatively small road favorite against the Lakers. The Hawks will be extremely motivated for this matchup, as they were embarrassed last time out at Utah, losing 68-95, giving them 4 losses in their last 5 games. With a road game against the Warriors on deck, there's a little extra emphasis on getting a win here.

The Lakers have been a pleasant surprise early on, but are just 1-4 in their last 5 and it's going to be tough to regain that early form with one of their most important pieces sidelined in DeAngelo Russell, who is right there with Lou Williams for the team lead in scoring at 16.1 ppg. He also leads the team in assists at 4.8 apg. There's also a chance they will be without talented forward Julius Randle, who has missed the last 2 and wasn't able to complete practice on Saturday.

We also find a strong system in play. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 35-10 (78%) ATS  in non-conference games since 1996 with a perfect 10-0 ATS record over the last 3 seasons. Take Atlanta! 

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Kings -

I like the value we are getting with the Kings laying a relatively small number here on the road against the Nets. Brooklyn was a covering machine to start the season, but playing hard and losing is only fun for so long. The Nets have completely fell off of late, as they come in riding a 6-game losing streak. All 6 losses have come by at least 7 points and 5 of those by at least 18.

I believe we are simply getting value here due to the fact that the Kings are just 6-10 overall. The key here is Sacramento has some talent to work with and have been playing much better of late with 2 wins in their last 3 games, beating both the Raptors and Thunder at home. This is a big road trip for the Kings and they are going to want to get it started off with a victory and I don't see the Nets putting up much of a fight here.

Brooklyn is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games and a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off 3 straight losses by 10 or more points. Kings are 5-0 ATS in their lat 5 off a SU loss. Take Sacramento!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Hornets -

This is all about the situation and it heavily favors the Hornets. These two teams played last night in New York, with the Knicks winning 113-111 in overtime. Now they head to Charlotte for a rematch and the Hornets are clearly going to be the more motivated team after losing yesterday.

The Knicks come in having won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall, but all 5 of those wins came at home. The lone loss was on the road to a bad Wizards team by 7-points. New York has really struggled to play well away from home, as they are just 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS on the highway this season. I know the Hornets comes in having lost 4 straight, but this is a much better team than their recent form would suggest. This is a huge statement game for the Hornets and I expect them to deliver with a double-digit win. Take Charlotte -6!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Hornets/Knicks OVER

New York has got something going of late, as they come in having won 4 of their last 5. A big part of that is their offense is clicking. The Knicks have scored at least 104 points in 5 straight games and have connected on 47% or better from the field in each of their last 3. They should be able to keep it going here against a Hornets team that has lost their edge on the defensive end. Charlotte is allowing 109.8 ppg over their last 5 games and twice during this stretch have allowed 119 or more.

The key here is the Hornets should have no problem keeping up with the Knicks on the offensive side of the ball. Charlotte comes in averaging 105.4 ppg on the season and have hit 114 or more in 3 of their last 5. The only two times they have failed to score at least 100 points in their last 9 games were against the Cavs and Grizzlies. New York doesn't figure to be able to add their name to the list, as they enter ranked 26th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and are allowing 105.9 ppg.

I also think there's some extra factors favoring a high-scoring game. I don't see the intensity being their on defense after the holiday break yesterday. On top of that, these two teams will face off again tomorrow in Charlotte. OVER is 10-3-2 in the last 15 meetings overall and a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in New York. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Late Night Total Annihilator on Thunder/Kings OVER

I look for the Kings and Thunder to cruise past this total tonight. Oklahoma City has allowed 100+ points in 8 straight games and that trend doesn't figure to come to an end with the Thunder playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. Especially against a Kings team that is clicking offensively right now. Sacramento comes in averaging 110.5 ppg over their last 4 games.

It's not just the Kings that will be filling up the stat sheet, Oklahoma City has scored 100+ in 7 of their last 8 games and come in averaging 112.3 ppg over their last 4. They shouldn't have any problem keeping the offense going, as Sacramento ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.4 points per 100 possessions.

The OVER is 12-2 in OKC's last 14 road games against a bad team that's won between 25%-40% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 100+ points last time out. We also have a strong system in play, as the OVER is 63-28 (69%) since 1996 in games with a total of 200 or more, where the road team is coming in off a loss by 3-points or less and playing an opponent that has scored 100+ points in 4 straight games. Take the OVER!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Grizzlies -

The Grizzlies are showing some great value here as a small road favorite against the 76ers. Philadelphia comes in having won 2 straight and 3 of their last 4, which I believe is keeping this line lower than it should be. The key here is the 76ers have been able to win a few games against some bad teams. Their 3 wins are against the Wizards, Suns and Heat, who all currently sit with a mere 4-wins on the season.

Memphis might not be viewed as a top team right now, but the Grizzlies are currently sitting 4th in the west and come in playing their best basketball of the season. Memphis is riding a 5-game winning streak and 4 of the 5 wins have come on the road. They are getting it done with a dominant defensive effort, as they are allowing just 85.6 ppg over their last 5. The offense can be limited at time, but the 76ers are team they can exploit. Philadelphia has allowed 100+ points in 13 of their 14 games this season.

Last time out the Grizzlies won 105-90 as a 5.5-point dog at Charlotte. That sets them up in a very profitable system, as they are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 off an upset win by 15 or more points as a road dog. The Grizzlies are also team that has been a strong bet against bad teams, as they are 30-18 ATS in their last 48 against a team with a losing record. Take Memphis!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Smash on Hawks -

Atlanta is primed for strong showing at home, as they will be highly motivated off back-to-back road losses to the Hornets and Knicks. The Hawks haven't had much problem taking care of business at home, where they are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS on the season. Atlanta is outscoring opponents on their home floor by an average of 10.0 ppg (112.4-102.4).

New Orleans has won two straight and are playing better since Jrue Holiday returned to action, but there's just not enough talent on this roster to take this team seriously. Especially on the road, where the Pelicans are just 1-5 to start the season. Last time on the highway, New Orleans lost by 7-points at Orlando and the Magic are no where close in terms of talent as the Hawks.

It's also worth pointing out that the Pelicans have been a great team to fade when playing on the road off a game where they covered the spread, as they are just 4-13 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons. Hawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Western Conference and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Take Atlanta!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Heat -

I like the value here with Miami as a small road favorite against the 76ers. The Heat come in having won 2 straight, including a 3-point win at Washington last time out as a 4.5-point dog. This is a better team than their 4-8 record would suggest, as they are only getting outscored by 0.4 ppg.

Philadelphia comes in off an upset win at home over the Suns, which I think is helping keep this line lower than it should be. The 76ers haven't won back-to-back games this season and are just 1-4 ATS off a SU win. Miami on the other hand is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games when playing a team that's won less than 40% of their home games. 

We also find a great system in play favoring a fade of the 76ers. Home dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are allowing 103 or more ppg against an opponent that scored 110+ points in their previous game are just 14-40 (26%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Miami! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Lakers OVER

I'm expecting a high-scoring game Friday night when the Lakers host the Spurs on ESPN. This LA team has been a pleasant surprise early on this season and they are playing an exciting brand of basketball, as new head coach Luke Walton has brought over a similar type of offense to the Warriors. The Lakers will jack up 3's as much as they can and will be looking to push the pace. I believe they can dictate the tempo here playing on 2 days of rest. 

San Antonio likes to play at a little slower pace, but will have no problem picking up the tempo here. The Spurs should be able to put up a big number here against a Lakers defense that is giving up north of 108 ppg. San Antonio is a well-oiled machine offensively and are actually scoring better on the road than they are at home. The Spurs are averaging just 101.9 ppg on the season, but are scoring 108.8 ppg on the road. Lakers are also a much better offensive team at home, as they are putting up 115.6 ppg at home compared to their season average of 110.0 ppg. 

OVER is 6-2 in the Spurs last 8 road games and 5-1 in the Lakers last 6 on the road. OVER is also a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Blazers +

I like the value here with Portland as a road dog against the Rockets on Thursday. The Blazers played as poorly as they have all season in Tuesday's 88-113 home loss to the Bulls. More than anything, they didn't bring the kind off effort needed to win. I expect a completely different Portland team to take the floor tonight against Houston.

As for the Rockets, this is not a good spot for them. They just played last night in a high-paced game on the road against the Thunder. Houston doesn't have a lot of depth and 4 of the 5 starters played 33+ minutes, with Harden, Gordon and Ariza all logging at least 37 minutes. I just don't see the Rockets having the energy to keep pace with a highly motivated Blazers team in this one.

Portland is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 off a SU loss by more than 10 points, while the Rockets are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Portland!

5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Rockets/Thunder OVER

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing this high total. These are two of the top offensive teams in the league. Houston comes in averaging 107.8 ppg, while Oklahoma City isn't too far behind at 108.9 ppg. The Thunder being at home only adds more value here, as OKC's scoring average jumps to 108.9 ppg at home and the Rockets are averaging 110.0 ppg on the road.

It's also important to note that while both teams don't play at a frantic pace, they both like to get up and down the floor. I believe the biggest factor here is the matchup at point guard. James Harden and Russell Westbrook are putting up video game type numbers to start the season. Harden comes in averaging 30.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg and 12.6 apg. Westbrook is right there with him at 32.0 ppg, 9.7 rpg and 9.9 apg. Houston has the more weapons overall on offense, but the Rockets don't play much defense, especially Harden.

We also find a strong system in play. The OVER is 51-23 (69%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off a home win by 10 or more points (Houston) in a game involving two marginal winning teams (Win % at 51% to 60%). Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Pacers +

I really like the value we are getting here with the Pacers catching a decent number at home against the Cavaliers. I know Cleveland comes into this game at 9-1, but this is not a good spot for the defending champs. The Cavs just played last night at home against the Raptors, escaping with a 121-117 win. That's not going to be an easy game to bounce back from. With J.R. Smith sidelined, James, Love and Irving all had to log big minutes. Love and Irving both played 35 minutes and James was out their for 38 minutes.

This is just the second time this season the Cavs have had to play a back-to-back set. It just so happens the first time also came after a game against the Raptors. They had to host the Magic the next night and ended up only winning 105-99 as an 11-point favorite. Keep in mind it's even harder to in the second game of a back-to-back when it's on the road. This is also Cleveland's 3rd game in 4 nights and 4th in the last 6 days.

Indiana has got off to a disappointing 5-6 start, but most of their struggles have come on the road. The Pacers are 5-1 at home with the only loss coming to the Celtics in the second game of a back-to-back set. Indiana is fresh for this one, as it's just their 2nd game in 4 days. I expect an all out effort here from Indiana against Cleveland and I just don't see the Cavs having the energy needed to turn this into a blowout. I also think there's a very good chance the Pacers win this game outright. Take Indiana!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Hornets -

We are getting a great price here on Charlotte as a small road favorite against the Timberwolves. This Hornets team has been playing extremely well to start the season. They are T-5th in scoring differential at 5.5 ppg. They are 6-3 with their 3 losses coming against the Celtics, Raptors and Cavaliers. The key here is the public doesn't view them as an elite team and we are catching a great number here due to them losing their last two.

It also helps that Minnesota is fresh off a 125-99 blowout win at home over the Lakers. The Timberwolves were a popular pick to surprise this season, but that hasn't been the case, as they are just 3-6 through 9 games. I believe the difference here is going to be defense, as both teams are strong offensively. Charlotte ranks 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Timberwolves come in at 24th. It's also worth pointing out that the Hornets defensive has really come to life on the road, as they are allowing just 95.5 ppg away from home. On top of that, we should get a big time effort here, as they try to avoid a third straight loss.

The Timberwolves are just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games with a total of 200 to 209.5. Minnesota is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win. Take Charlotte!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pistons -

The Thunder continue to get a lot of love from the public. Despite losing 3 straight, including a outright loss at home to the Magic yesterday as a 9.5-point favorite, the public is once again backing OKC at a near 60% clip as a small road dog against the Pistons. I believe it's created some great value here on Detroit and other sharps agree, as this line has jumped 2 points since it opened with the Pistons at -1.

While the Thunder will certainly want to win here after losing their last 3, this is horrible spot to bounce back. OKC is not only playing on the road in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this is their 3rd game in the last 4 nights. So much of what this team does relies on Westbrook and he has to be running on fumes here, as he has played 39, 35 and 38 minutes in the Thunder's last 3 games.

I believe the key here will be Detroit's energy and effort on the defensive side of the ball. The Pistons rank 5th in the league in defensive efficiency and are giving up just 85.0 ppg at home, where they are 4-0 SU and ATS this season. Note that all 4 wins at home have come by double-digits. OKC comes in averaging a respectable 104.6 ppg, but most of their scoring has come at home, as they are only averaging 94.7 ppg in their 3 road games this season. Take Detroit!

4* NBA ATS Vegas Insider on Wolves +

I know most are going to see this is a favorable line to back the Clippers, but I think the value here is with Minnesota as a home dog. This is a huge letdown spot for Los Angeles, after last night's hard fought 110-108 win at OKC, which they desperately wanted after losing to the Thunder at home earlier in the season. Griffin, Jordan and Paul all logged at least 33 minutes last night and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Rivers decided to rest at least a couple of his stars tonight. Not only is this the second game of a back-to-back set, but it's LA's 3rd in the last 4 nights.

Minnesota is a young team that is struggling to close out games, but they have also played 5 of their first 7 on the road. They were extremely competitive in their 2 home games and I look for an all out effort here. Keep in mind that while LAC is in a horrible scheduling spot, the Timberwolves come into this one off a full 2 days of rest.

We also find a strong system in play backing the Timberwolves in this one. Underdogs who have allowed 105 or more points in 3 straight games against an opponent off a win by 6 points or less are 36-10 (78%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Minnesota!

5* Western Conference Game of the Month on Clippers -

It's amazing how little attention the Clippers are getting right now. Los Angeles is 7-1 and getting it done on both sides of the floor. The Clippers are averaging 105.1 ppg, while allowing just 88.2 ppg. It's the way they are playing defensively that has impressed me, they are #1 in defensive efficiency, allowing just 89.3 ppg per opponents 100 possessions. The next best team is Charlotte at 95.4. When you play that hard on defense, it's a lot easier to win on the road and the Clippers are 3-0 away from home, securing wins at Portland, Memphis and San Antonio, all difficult places to play.

The big key here for me is the lone loss for LA came at home against Oklahoma City, so there's some extra motivation for the Clippers in this one. The first meeting saw the Thunder win 85-83, so LA's defense was on point, but the offense just wasn't there. The Clippers shot just 39.1% from the field, well below their season average of 45%. I look for another strong effort here on the defensive side of the ball, with the offense doing a lot more to win here by 5+ points.

Clippers are 24-12 ATS in their last 36 when revenging a loss to an oppponent and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 when listed as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Take Los Angeles!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Kings -

I like the value we are getting here with Sacramento as a small home favorite against the Lakers. I'll admit that LA has been better than expected in the early going, but this is still a young team that is learning how to win on the road. They are just 1-3 away from the Staples Center and the lone win came against the Hawks, where they shot lights out, hitting 53.9% from the field.

This will be just the 4th home game for the Kings on the season. They are 2-1 with the lone loss coming in a hard fought game against the Spurs. Last time out they put away the Pelicans 102-94 as a 6.5-point favorite. I believe the key here is the Lakers won't have an answer for DeMarcus Cousins inside. He averaged 27 ppg and 11.3 rpg in the 4 games against LA last year. I also think it's worth pointing out the Kings just got back starting point guard Darren Collison last time out against New Orleans, so this team is even better than what they have shown so far.

Lakers are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Sacramento!

4* Situational Undervalued Underdog on Bulls +

I'll really been impressed with Chicago in the early portion of the season, as they have really adjusted well to a major roster overhaul. However, this is more of a play against the Hawks, who are in a brutal spot here after last night's huge win over the Cavaliers in Cleveland. You could see how much that game meant to Atlanta by how hard they played and the emotion they showed during the contest.

That puts them in line for a big letdown here at home against the Bulls. Keep in mind that Atlanta essentially used a 7-man rotation last night. The only starter who didn't play more than 30 minutes was Howard. Keep in mind this is the second back-to-back set the Hawks have had to play in the last 6 six. Chicago on the other hand has played just once in the last 3 days and that was a stress free 32-point win at home against the Magic. I just don't see Atlanta being able to match the intensity of the Bulls in this one. Take Chicago!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Jazz/Hornets UNDER

I really like the value here on the total in Wednesday's matchup between the Hornets and Jazz. The strength of both of these teams is their defense. Utah comes in allowing just 94.4 ppg and Charlotte is giving up just 96.5 ppg. Both rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency, as the Hornets are 2nd and the Jazz are 10th.

The key here is that Utah is a team that wants to slow down the pace of the game. In fact, they come in dead last in the NBA in pace at 93.5 possessions per game. I expect them to look to play even slower than normal here, as this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 nights. Note that Charlotte has played just one team in their first 6 games who ranks in the bottom 10 in pace. That's Miami, who is currently 22nd. That game finished with 188 points and both teams shooting 38% or worse from the field.

It's also worth pointing out Utah has played 4 games against teams who rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. The only one that saw more than 194 points was a game at San Antonio, where the two combined for 197. Utah shot the lights out in that game, hitting 15 3-pointers and shooting 50% from the field. I'll take my chances that doesn't happen here against the Hornets. The other 3 against Top 10 defensive teams saw 186 or fewer points. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Suns +

Phoenix is showing some great value here as a big road dog against the Blazers. Phoenix is just 2-5, but are playing much better of late, taking 2 of their last 3 and are 4-2 ATS in their last 6. Coming in off a double-digit loss to the Lakers, I look for a big bounce back performance from the Suns here. It's a spot they have dominated in under head coach Earl Watson, as they are 13-3 ATS under Watson off a loss by 10 or more.

This is also a tough spot for the Blazers. Portland just finished up a 3-game road trip and will be home for just one game before heading to Los Angeles to face the Clippers tomorrow. A game they are going to have a tough time not looking ahead to, as they haven't forgot about a ugly 12-point home loss to the Clippers earlier this season.

Phoenix has had the Blazers number of late, as they are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The Underdog in this series is also 10-4 ATS in the last 14. A big part of that is the Suns matchup well with Portland, as the Blazers are a very guard-oriented team. Phoenix has 3 really good guards of their own in Bledsoe, Knight and Boooker. Keep in mind Lillard is coming in a bit banged up, as he's dealing with nagging injuries to both his ankle and thumb. Take Phoenix!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Wolves -

Minnesota comes into this game at 1-4 SU and ATS and fresh off a 20-point loss at Oklahoma City, yet are laying points on the road against a Nets team that has gone 5-1 ATS to start the season. I think it's for good reason, as this Timberwolves team is on the verge of breaking out. They have played much better than their record would indicate. They have blown double-digit leads in 3 of their 4 losses.

One of the big reasons that Brooklyn is off to such a strong start against the number, is this team is playing extremely hard and opposing teams just aren't giving them the respect they deserve. That's not going to be the case here with Minnesota, as they have to feel like this is a must-win game.

The Timberwolves will once again be without starting point guard Ricky Rubio, but this is a good matchup here, as the Nets are minuts their top two point guards in Jeremy Lin and Greivis Vasquez. They will once again have to send out rookie Isaiah Whitehead at the point. Look for Minnesota rookie point guard Kris Dunn to have a breakout performance here in what should be a blowout win for the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on 76ers +

Philadelphia is showing some great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Jazz. While the 76ers are 0-5, they have been competitive in a number of their games, especially at home. They only lost by 6 at home to OKC, by 2 at home to Orlando and most recently by just 1 to the Cavaliers. They likely are another year away from really getting things going in the right direction, but they are clearly better than they have been the last two years. I expect them to continue to play extremely hard at home, as they desperately want that first win of the season.

The key here is that this is a tough spot for the Jazz. Utah will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, as they just played in New York yesterday. It's also their 3rd game in the last 4 days and 5th in the last 7 days. Utah did just get back Gordon Hayward, but are without both Boris Diaw and Alec Burks and starting point guard George Hill is questionable with a hand injury. Hill would be a big loss, as he's really started out strong, averaging 20.4 ppg and 5.0 apg.

The 76ers have been a great bet against the Western Conference, as they are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 non-conference games. They are also 35-19 ATS in their last 54 against teams who force 12 or less turnovers/game. Take Philadelphia!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Hawks -

The perception here is that Atlanta isn't going to have the legs to keep up with the Rockets, as the Hawks will be playing on short rest, but I don't think that's going to be the case. This game has a special meaning for the Hawks, as free agent pickup Dwight Howard goes against his old team in Houston. I expect the Hawks to dig deep here and lay it all on the line for their new teammate, much like we saw Thursday with Durant and the Warriors going up against OKC and again last night with Rose and Noah returning to Chicago.

Let's also not overlook the fact that Atlanta has won 5 straight in the series over Houston, including a 12-point win the last time they hosted the Rockets. I also think we see an edge here with the Hawks after losing 2 straight. This is a much better team than people realize. They are T-2nd in defensive efficiency and 11th in offensive efficiency. Houston isn't exactly in the best spot either, as this will be their 3rd straight on the road after two big games at Cleveland and New York. It's also their 5th road game in their first 6 overall.

Hawks are 50-28 (64%) ATS under Budenholzer when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 35-18 (66%) ATS in their last 53 when facing an up-tempo team (83 or more shots/game). Take Atlanta!

5* NBA Situational No Limit Top Play on Lakers +

I really like the value here with the Lakers as a double-digit home dog. This is a massive letdown spot for the Warriors, who just played at home last night against the Thunder. A game they have had circled since the schedule was released, as it was Durant's first game against his old team after leaving OKC for Golden State in the offseason. You could see the emotion they invested in that game and it's going to be really hard for them to bring anywhere close to that intensity on the road against a Lakers team that isn't perceived to be any good.

The thing is, this Lakers team is better than they get credit for. They play really hard and have some nice young talent that can score the basketball. They also come in with some confidence, after closing out their 4-game road trip with a 123-116 win at Atlanta, who had previously been unbeaten.

We also find a great system in play going against the Warriors in this spot. Road favorites of 10 or more playing on back-to-back days are just 6-25 (19%) against the spread since 1996 in the 1st half the season. Keep in mind this is also Golden State's 3rd game in 4 nights. Take Los Angeles!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Pelicans -

I like the value here with New Orleans as a small home favorite against the Suns. The Pelicans are going to lay it all on the line in this one, as they search for their first win of the season after an 0-5 start. They have been painfully close the last two games, losing 113-117 at home to the Bucks and 83-89 at Memphis. I saw some great signs in their last game, with rookie Buddy Hield finally getting his shot going and Lance Stephenson contributing 21. The only thing that prevented them from winning was an off night from Anthony Davis, who shot just 3 of 13 for 10 points.

I also like the opponent here, as the Suns are just 1-4 and are coming off their first win at home against the Blazers. The Suns play fast and can put up some points, but are not very efficient. Phoenix is just 25th in offensive efficiency. They are also vulnerable on defense, as they come in allowing 112.6 ppg.

The Suns are just 3-16 ATS in their last 19 road games after going over the total in their previous game and are losing here by an average score of 97.3 to 111.5 (-14.2 ppg). Phoenix is also just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 off a win by 6 points or less. Take New Orleans!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Kings +

I like the value here with Sacramento getting points against the Magic. The Kings come into this game at just 2-3, but I've been impressed with what I have seen out of this team. They were right there with the Spurs at home in a 94-102 loss, they fell apart late (outscored by 13 in 4th) in a 95-106 loss at Atlanta and last time out they lost in OT at Miami, where DeMarcus Cousins had fouled out in regulation. I look for this team to come out extremely motivated here and they are the more talented team in this one.

Orlando avoided an 0-4 start with a 103-101 win at Philadelphia, but they were very fortunate to get that win. The Magic trailed by 14 at the half and were down by as many as 18. Considering they were 0-3 going into that game and had no reason to overlook the 76ers, that's not a good sign, because Philadelphia is the worst team in the league right now.

Great system in play backing the Kings here. Teams off a road loss (Kings) with a line of +3 to -3 against an opponent off a road win by 3 points or less (Magic) are 23-4 (85%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take Sacramento!

4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Suns +

I think this is the time to jump on the Suns as a home dog against the Blazers. Portland is in a brutal spot here, playing on no rest after laying it all on the line at home last night against the Warriors. Now they have to go on the road to face a Suns team that has started out 0-4 and coming in off a ugly 18-point loss to the Clippers. Given how early we are in the season, I just don't see Portland being all that interested in this one.

Phoenix on the other hand is going to lay everything they have into getting their first win of the season and I like the talent on this team. While they could be without Booker, there's also a decent chance he plays, as the injury that forced him to not play Monday isn't considered serious. Either way, I like the Suns to get the win at home in this spot.

Portland is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. The Suns are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games off a loss by 10 ore more points. Take Phoenix!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Celtics -

I really like the value we are getting with Boston as a small home favorite against the Bulls. Chicago is getting a lot of love after their 3-0 start both SU and ATS, which includes a 105-99 win at home against the Celtics in their opener. The thing to keep in mind with that win over Boston, is the Celtics were playing on no rest. The Bulls blitzed them in the 1st quarter and they just were never able to recover, though they did come back and take the lead after falling behind by 15 points.

While I think Chicago is better than people thought coming in, I don't see them going on the road here and beating the Celtics, especially given they just played last week and beat them. Revenge isn't huge in the NBA, but it comes into play a lot more when teams play each other in a short period of time.

The Bulls are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing a game on the road, while the Celtics are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Boston!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Knicks -

I really like the value here with the Knicks at basically a pick'em at home against the Rockets. Both teams will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set off a loss last night, but I give the edge to New York. Houston just laid it all on the line against the defending champs in Cleveland and it was a draining game that saw 248 combined points scored. It's going to be difficult for the Rockets to bounce back and bring the energy needed to win on the road on no rest.

It's not just the back-to-back on the road for Houston either. This will be the Rockets 4th road game in their first 5 games to start the season. All of this coming in the span of 7 days.

The Knicks lost 89-102 at Detroit and only have themselves to blame after scoring a mere 10-points in the 4th quarter and just 34 in the 2nd half. I look for New York to come out inspired at home, where they are 1-0 on the season with a 111-104 win against the Grizzlies.

Houston is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after scoring 55 points or more in the 1st half in 2 straight games and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 off a cover in their last game. Take New York!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Timberwolves -

I like the value we are getting here with Minnesota as a relatively small home dog against the Grizzlies. The Timberwolves have started out 0-2, despite building early leads in both losses. One of those was against Memphis in their season opener on the road. Minnesota had a 17-point lead in a 4-point loss. It was a similar story in their second game, losing by 3 at Sacramento after leading by as many as 18.

I look for the Timberwolves to once again get out to an early lead, expect this time they maintain the edge and secure a comfortable win. Keep in mind this will be Minnesota's home opener and given what's happened in the first two games, we know we are going to get a max effort here from the Timberwolves, who are poised for big things under new head coach Tom Thibodeau.

Memphis is 2-1, but both wins have come at home. In their lone road contest they fell 104-111 at New York as a 3-point dog. That's now 7 straight losses against the spread away from home for the Grizzlies dating back to last season. It's also worth pointing out that Memphis is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings on the road against the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors - 

I like the value here with Toronto in a big bounce back spot after losing last time out at home against the Cavaliers. Prior to that they beat up on the Pistons at home, winning by 18 as a 6-point home favorite. This will now be the Raptors 3rd straight at home to start the season, while Denver hits the road for the second time in their first three.

The Nuggets were able to win and cover on the road at New Orleans in their opener, but that's not a win to get excited about. The Pelicans are a one man show with Anthony Davis. Denver followed that up by losing at home to Blazers and now get their biggest test to date against a Raptors team that is one of the elite forces in the Eastern Conference. 

The big key here is that Toronto has a huge home court edge the Raptors went 32-9 at home last year and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record. Denver hasn't been sharing the ball all that well. The Nuggets are 25th with 18.5 assists/game and are a mere 3-12 ATS over the last 3 seasons after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists. Take Toronto! 

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Bucks -

The Nets have come out strong covering as a 11.5-point dog at Boston on Wednesday and then winning outright as a 6-point dog at home against the Pacers last night. I believe it has Brooklyn getting a little too much respect in what should be a tough spot. I know it's early in the season, but playing 3 out of 4 nights on a back-to-back is not easy for a bad team like the Nets. 

Brooklyn also took advantage of the Celtics and Pacers not giving them the respect they deserve. Milwaukee's not going to be so kind, as the Bucks will come out with a chip on their shoulder after losing their home opener to Charlotte, who has looked impressive in their 2-0 start. It's also worth pointing out that Milwaukee has owned this series, going 6-1 in the last 7 meetings with a 3-0 ATS mark at home during this stretch. Take Milwaukee! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Suns + 

We are getting some exceptional value here with Phoenix catching almost double-digits against the Thunder. Russell Westbrook is going to put up ridiculous numbers this season, but I'm not buying OKC being a real threat in the Western Conference. The Thunder were far from impressive in their opener against a bad 76ers team. They won the game 103-97, but just as easily could have lost. They had to outscore Philadelphia 34-22 in the 4th just to secure the win. 

One of things that made a number of these OKC role players so good last year is because opposing teams had to pay so much attention to Westbrook and Durant that they often got left wide open. That's not going to be the case this year and we saw the new addition of Oladipo struggle in his Thunder debut, going just 4 of 16 from the field. The Thunder also don't have a real 3-point threat on this team and that makes it that much easier to defend them. 

We are getting great value here on Phoenix because of their lackluster performance at home against the Kings in the opener. The Suns lost 94-113 as a 3-point home favorite. For whatever reason Phoenix's starters didn't bring a lot of energy to that game. I look for a big bounce back effort here, as this team is a lot more talented than people think. Also, Sacramento is better than people think. They just gave the Spurs all they could handle at home last night. Take Phoenix! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wizards/Hawks UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER on the total in tonight's NBA clash between the Hawks and Wizards. Neither of these teams were in action the last two nights, so this is there season opener and it comes in a key division matchup, as both of these teams figure to be fighting for the top spot in the Southeast. I look for both sides to come out with a ton of energy on the defensive side of the ball and lead to a much lower scoring game than what this line would suggest. 

Atlanta had some big chances over the offseason. They parted ways with two of their best players in Al Horford and Jeff Teague. The only real significant move they made to improve the roster in free agency was Dwight Howard, who will start in place of Horford. Taking over for Teague will be Dennis Schroder. I think both of these guys are upgrades defensively and I look for the Hawks to play at a slower pace this year. 

Washington returns their core starters from last year with the focus centered around the backcourt duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal. The Wizards aren't a great defensive team, but they should be able to keep the Hawks new look lineup in check here. At the same time, I think Atlanta's going to make things difficult for Washington, as the Wizards won't get a ton of easy looks inside with Howard patrolling the paint. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Wolves +

I'm big on Minnesota this season and while their young nucleus is a part of it, I think the biggest thing that makes them dangerous is the addition of head coach Tom Thibodeau. In his time with Chicago, the Bulls consistently overachieved during the regular season. A big part of that is he doesn't let teams take nights off defensively and that's clearly an area where the Timberwolves needed to improve. Last year Minnesota ranked 23rd, giving up 106.0 ppg. 

It didn't take long for him to get them playing harder on that side of the ball. In the Timberwolves 7 preseason games, they only allowed more than 100 points once. If they are getting after it defensively when games don't matter, hard to think they aren't going to do the same once they start to count for real. 

That defense should be able to dominate the Grizzlies depleted lineup in the season opener. Memphis is without their prized free agent signing Chandler Parsons and backup center Brandon Wright. Tony Allen is also questionable with a knee injury. Keep in mind they also lost some key pieces from last year in Matt Barnes, Lance Stephenson and Mario Chalmers. This is also a team that was horrible down the stretch, going 3-14 over their final 17 games. Take Minnesota! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Pacers - 

Indiana is a team that I think is flying way under the radar going into this season. All you hear about is the Celtics being the only real threat to Cleveland in the east, but I think this Pacers team is right up there with those two teams and the Raptors. 

Indiana really came on strong late last season and a big part of that was the emergence of rookie center Myles Turner and Paul George getting further away from the injury that cost him most of the previous season. While they lost starting point guard George Hill, they did an excellent job replacing him with Jeff Teague from Atlanta. They also added in Thaddeus Young, Al Jefferson and Aaron Brooks, all of which who are improvements over what they had. It also gives them great depth across the board and their 2nd unit is going to cause a lot of problems for teams. 

Dallas also made some moves in the offseason, bringing in two castoffs from the Warriors in Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut. While they could have done worse, I don't think either is going to have a huge impact with this team. I'm also not sold on Deron Williams being the answer at point guard and Nowitzki is not near the factor he use to be. Dallas' second unit also leaves a lot to be desired. The Pacers have the better starters and reserves, which has all the makings of a blowout win at home. Take Indiana! 

5* NBA Opening Night No Limit Top Play on Blazers - 

The Jazz are getting a ton of love from oddsmakers going into this season and I believe we are seeing some of that hype reflected in this line, as it's going to be hard for Utah to go into Portland and get a win given the injuries they are dealing with. Utah is minus their best player in Gordon Hayward and top reserve from last year in Alec Burks. They could also be missing arguably their next play player in Derrick Favors, who is questionable with a knee injury. They also have Rodney Hood playing at less than 100%. 

Another big factor here is how much better these two teams play at home compared to on the road. Last season the Blazers went 28-13 at home and just 16-25 on the road. It was a similar story for the Jazz, who were 24-17 at home compared to 16-25 on the road. 

I know the preseason doesn't mean a lot, but it is worth noting that these two teams played twice and the Blazers won both games. Portland's starters were the more impressive unit when on the floor and MVP darkhorse Damian Lillard did as he pleased in both games, scoring 43 points on 17-28 shooting in 51 minutes. I just don't think Utah is going to be able to keep pace offensively in this one. Take Portland! 

5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors - 

As bad as the Warriors have looked in the last two games, my money is on Golden State to take care of business at home in Game 7 tonight. The home team has gone an impressive 15-3 in Game 7 of the NBA Finals and lets not forget there has never been a team that has come back from a 3-1 deficit. 

The last time a road team won Game 7 was 1978 and the last time the Warriors lost 3 straight was back in November of 2013. Playing at home will be the difference and I look for Curry and Thompson to be the difference in this one. There's no denying that James is playing out of his mind right now, but he's going to need some help. Cleveland needed every bit of Irving's 41 points in Game 5 and that was with the Warriors playing without Green. 

Cavaliers are a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points, while the Warriors are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 when revenging a road loss. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Warriors + 

It took the greatest NBA Finals performance from 2 teammates to extend this series, as LeBron James and Kyrie Irving both put up 41 points. The two simply couldn't miss, as they combined to shoot 33 of 54 (61%) from the field. James had a rare game where he caught fire from the outside, something I'm confident won't carry over. 

The thing you have to keep in mind, is those performances game with Draymond Green sidelined, arguably the Warriors most important player, especially when it comes to their versatility on the defense end. He's also a big part of the offense. I believe his return is going to be the difference. Let's not forget the Cavaliers two wins so far in the series have come with the Warriors not showing up to play in Game 3 and with Green sidelined. 

The Warriors don't lose often and have showed a great resilience off a bad game the previous time out. They closed out the Cavaliers in Cleveland last year and I fully expect them to do the same tonight. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors - 

Even with Green sideline for Game 5, I'm still riding the Warriors to not only clinch the series, but to do by more than the number listed here. In fact, I think we are actually getting some value because of Green's absence, as the line has dropped by 2.5 points since it opened at 8. 

The Warriors are going to rally around the fact that Green was suspended, as many feel it was James who instigated the Flagrant foul. Green's absence will be felt on the defensive end, but the Warriors are a deep team and are going to have no problem scoring offensively.

Cleveland on the other hand, is not the same team on the road. They aren't near as efficient offensively and don't play with the same intensity on the defensive end. That's evident by the two blowouts in games 1 & 2, where the Cavaliers shot just 38.1% and 35.4% from the field, while letting the Warriors connect on 49.4% and 54.3%. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors + 

As expected Golden State came out flat in Game 3 and while I didn't see a 30-point loss coming, the margin really doesn't matter. The Warriors simply didn't come to play and their star players didn't come close to performing to their potential. It's amazing what one loss can do, as the public is now on the Cavaliers in Game 4 after wanting nothing to do with them after those two losses in Golden State. 

As good as Cleveland has played at home, they should not be favorite against the Warriors in this spot. We are going to see a pissed off and highly motivated Golden State team take the floor tonight and I just don't believe the Cavs have the offensive firepower to hang with the Warriors when they are at their best. I expect this to be a close game throughout, but I look for Golden State to pull away in the 4th quarter. Keep in mind that the Warriors have struggled in Game 3's in every round. They lost Game 3 last year at Cleveland and came back and won Game 4 by 21 points. 

Warriors are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when revenging a loss and 22-8 in their last 30 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals Vegas Insider Top Play on Cavs + 

I was on the wrong end with the Cavaliers in both Game 1 and Game 2, but I'm sticking with Cleveland as the series shifts to their house for Game 3. The Cavaliers aren't going to win this series, but they are a better team than what we have seen so far. James isn't going to let this team fall behind 0-3 in the series and the Warriors are going to struggle to match the intensity that Cleveland is going to bring to this game. 

Offense has been the big problem for the Cavaliers so far in the series. The role players have not contributed near the level needed. Golden State on the other hand has got tremendous play from their role players. Role players always seem to play better at home and I believe that's going to be the difference in Game 3. 

Cavs are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 home games revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100+ points in 2 straight games and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games at home. Take Cleveland! 

5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Cavs + 

Cleveland is worth a look here in Game 2. Despite losing Game 1 by 15-points, there were a lot of positives to take away for the Cavaliers. Cleveland didn't shoot the ball well at all. They were 38% from the field overall and just 33% from long distance. They also got nothing from their role players, as James, Love and Irving combined for 66 of the teams 89 points. 

Defensively the Cavaliers allowed the Warriors to shoot 49.4% from the field, but were able to hold both Thompson and Curry in check, as the two combined for just 20 points on 8 of 27 shooting. The role players for Golden State all played well. Cleveland is clearly going to make the others beat them and I have a hard time seeing those not named Curry and Thompson combining for 84 points in consecutive games. 

As bad as things went for Cleveland, they actually had a lead in the 3rd quarter. James isn't going to let his team lose by double-digits in back-to-back games. Keep in mind the Warriors won Game 1 last year, only to lose Game 2 as a 7.5-point favorite. Take Cleveland! 

5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Cavs + 

Golden State needed a lot of breaks to go their way to escape the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder. I don't know that they are going to be so fortunate in the NBA Finals against the Cavaliers. Either way, I have to give the edge to Cleveland in Game 1.

The Cavaliers had the much easier path to the Finals and are the more rested team. Cleveland also has serious revenge on their minds after losing to Golden State in last year's Finals. At the same time, it's going to be tough for Golden State to match the intensity of the Cavaliers after that grueling 7-game series against the Thunder. 

This year LeBron has a legit supporting cast around him. Unlike OKC, which turned to hero ball with Durant and Westbrook, Cleveland is going to share the basketball and make the Warriors defense work on every possession. They are also going to be able to close out games when they have the lead in the 4th quarter. I just feel this is too many points for Cleveland to be catching in a game they have a great shot at winning. Take the Cavaliers!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Warriors -

The Warriors have all the momentum and I look for them come out and lay it on the Thunder in Game 7 at home. Deep down OKC knows they blew their chance at winning this series with the late 4th quarter collapse at home in Game 6. The home team has such an advantage in Game 7 and even more so when you factor how good the Warriors are at Oracle. 

Golden State has made a great adjustment that couple of games, going big to keep the Thunder from dominating the board. They are also doing a great job defensively on Durant and Westbrook. The two are scoring a decent amount, but are taking a lot of shots. The pressure of Game 7 is only going to make these two force up more shots, as they just don't trust their role players enough in big situations. 

Warriors are 21-9 in their last 30 home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors + 

I know the Thunder owned Golden State at home in both Game 3 and 4, but like we saw in the Cavs/Raptors series, that doesn't mean OKC is going to dominate Game 6 at home. The Warriors answered with their backs against the wall in Game 5 on their home floor and I look for them to carry over that momentum to Game 6. 

All of the pressure is on the Thunder to win this game. They know if they lose this one, their chances of winning Game 7 on the road are slim. At the same time, the Warriors are going to be better prepared mentally this time around for the atmosphere they will face in OKC. I still think the Thunder are too dependent on Westbrook and Durant and when things get tough like they will be in Game 6, they tend to worry more about each other and the rest of the players get left out of the offense. 

It's also worth noting we are getting some value here with this line. Golden State was favored in both of the previous road games in this series and are now catching 2.5-points. This team won at OKC earlier this season and will do so again tonight. Take the Warriors! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Cavaliers - 

As expected, the Cleveland returned home and laid an absolute beating on the Raptors in Game 5. While it won't be as easy on the road in Game 6, I'm confident the Cavaliers will go into Toronto and finish off the series. 

Cleveland didn't give the Raptors the respect they deserved in Games 3 and 4 in Toronto, but they aren't going to make that same mistake here. All the confidence that the Raptors got in those two wins is completely gone after what happened in Game 5. The Cavaliers are simply the better team and as long as they come out with that killer instinct, Toronto has no chance of winning or keeping it close. 

Raptors are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 85 points or less in their previous game and home dogs revenging a loss where they scored 85 or less against an opponent off a home win by 20+ points are just 46-83 ATS since 1996. Take Cleveland! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors -

It's hard to believe that the series is headed back to Golden State with the Warriors trailing 3-1, but  I'm not about to give up on the Warriors just yet. After losing Game 1 at home and facing a must win in Game 2, Golden State laid a 27-point beating on the Thunder.

With their season on the line, and the Thunder knowing they get Game 6 at home, I look for the Warriors to dominate Game 5. It's just going to be near impossible for OKC to come out and match the intensity of Golden State in this one. The Warriors should also be able to get their offense going at home. 

Warriors are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 when revenging an upset loss as favorite and 31-15 ATS in their last 46 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Golden State! 

4* Cavs/Raptors NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Cavs - 

I'm backing the Cavaliers to cover the big spread at home in Game 5. Sure Toronto surprised everyone by winning both games at home, but let's not forget what took place in the first two games at Cleveland. The Cavs won by 31 in Game 1 and 19 in Game 2. Not only did Cleveland fail to match the intensity of the Raptors in Toronto, but the Raptors shot extremely well in both games. 

Toronto now has the Cavaliers full attention and that's bad news for the Raptors. You also have to keep in mind just how much Lowry struggled in Cleveland over the first two games. If he's not playing at an elite level, Toronto has zero chance of keeping this game close. Even if he does play well, it still likely won't be enough to keep pace with a pissed off and highly motivated Cleveland team. 

It's also important to note that Cleveland seemed to figure out the Raptors in the 2nd half of Game 4. The Cavs came back from a 16-point halftime deficit to take the lead in the 4th quarter. Look for Cleveland to start off much better at home and be the ones up double-digits at the half. Take the Cavaliers! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Warriors -

As good as OKC looked in Game 3 at home, I think the value here is with the Warriors as a small road favorite in Game 4. Down 1-2, Golden State really can't afford to lose this game and I believe this team will come out looking more like the team that dominated Game 2. 

The Warriors simply didn't bring the defensive intensity in Game 3 and were just unable to recover from the haymaker the Thunder landed in the 2nd quarter. Oklahoma City also caught fire on the offensive end, shooting 50% from the field. I look for Golden State's defense to be the difference in this one, as Curry, Thompson and Green will deliver enough offensively to secure the win. 

Thunder are just 9-18 in their last 27 after scoring 60+ points at the half of their previous game, while the Warriors are 19-6 in their last 25 off loss by 10 or more as a road favorite. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Cavs - 

The Cavaliers got embarrassed in Game 3 at Toronto, losing 84-99 for their first loss of the postseason. Not a huge surprise, as Cleveland was due for a letdown and that was a must-win game for the Raptors. Unfortunately for Toronto I don't see that carrying over to Game 4.

Cleveland is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after how they played on Saturday and should have no problem winning here by more than 6-points. The Cavaliers won the first two games in the series by a combined 50 points. There's simply too big a gap between these two teams, as the Cavs are clearly the best the East has to offer. 

Raptors are just 1-6 in their last 7 after a SU win and 0-4 in their last 4 off a cover. Cleveland is 4-1 in their last 5 after failing to cover their previous game and have not failed to cover in back-to-back games in the playoffs this season. Take the Cavaliers! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder +

Golden State bounced back in a big way to take Game 2 after blowing a double-digit halftime lead in Game 1. The public is going to be on the Warriors at this line, but I think the value here is with OKC.

The Thunder are a dominant home team and have proven they can not only hang with Golden State but are capable of beating them. I look for an all out effort here from the Thunder in Game 3, as they know they have to keep home court if they want any chance of winning this series. 

Oklahoma City is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 when revenging a loss and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss by more than 10 points. Thunder are also 31-10-2 ATS in their last 43 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take OKC! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors +

It's been about as bad as it could be for Toronto in the first 2 games of this series. While everyone knows this series is all but a formality, I still expect the Raptors to come out and play extremely hard on their home court. I believe this is the one game that Toronto has a better than normal chance of winning. Cleveland is on cruise control and do not feel threatened at all by this team. If there's a game the Cavaliers are going to let their guard down, it's this one. 

The good news is we don't need Toronto to win the game to cash our ticket. The Raptors just have to keep it respectable, something they are definitely capable of. They have hung with Cleveland early in both games, but Lowry being a non-factor has been too much to overcome. I look for him to at least show up and provide something in Game 3. 

Let's also not forget the oddsmakers know the betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with Toronto right now. I'm confident they set this line where they like the Raptors chances of covering. Keep in mind after the Cavs won both games at home against the Hawks by double-digits, they were only a 2-point favorite in game 3. 

Cleveland is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take Toronto!  

5* NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Month on Raptors + 

Toronto was no match for Cleveland in Game 1 and I was all over the Cavaliers laying the big number in the series opener. Now I'm banking not he Raptors to bounce back in a big way and make a game of it in Game 2. Toronto basically took Game 1 off, as they just didn't have the energy to keep up with the Cavaliers. The Raptors just got done playing a grueling 7-game series agains the Heat, while Cleveland hadn't played in 8 days. 

Toronto simply can't be as bad offensively as they were in Game 1. The Raptors had just 3 players finish in double-figures with DeRozan leading the way with just 18. Lowry was a complete non factor, scoring just 8 points on 4 of 14 shooting, while Carrol only had 2 points. I expect this trio to have a much better showing in Game 2. I also don't expect the Cavaliers to repeat their 55% effort from the field in Game 1. As well as Cleveland has been playing, that's only the second time this postseason they have shot 50% or better. It's also the first time Toronto has allowed an opponent to eclipse that mark in the playoffs. 

Cleveland has now covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games and are simply overvalued because of it. Keep in mind the Cavaliers are a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when they come into a game having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7. Toronto is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a SU loss and even with the loss in Game 1 are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the Raptors! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder/Warriors OVER

Game 1 saw a combined score of just 210 points, easily finishing UNDER the total posted of 225. The books have adjusted for Game 2 by dropping the total down 3-points and I think it's a big mistake. Neither team shot the ball well, as both finished under 45% from the field. Keep in mind in the two previous meetings both teams shot at least 47%. 

Curry and Thompson combined for 51 points, but Curry was just 9 for 22 from the field. A mark he can easily better in Game 2. As for the Thunder, Westbrook had a monster 3rd quarter, but was just 7 for 21. Durant was even worse at 10 for 30. I'm also confident we aren't going to see another 14 point quarter from the Warriors like we did in the final period of Game 1. Golden State had scored at least 116 points in all 3 of the regular season meetings and would have eclipsed that if it wasn't for the awful showing in the 4th. 

OVER is 11-2 in the Thunder's last 13 after covering at least 5 of their last 7 and 13-4 in their last 17 after winning 8 or more of their previous 10. Take the OVER!