3* Oddsmakers Error on Cleveland Cavs +

Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record and they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Cleveland has been a good team to play on lately covering the number in 9 of their last 12 games. It appears the oddsmakers have still not adjusted the lines to reflect the Cavaliers improving talent level making them a heavy underdog in this game against Dallas.

The Cavaliers are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings at Dallas. The main reason for their success is directly related to how bad the Mavericks defense has played. They are allowing 102.3 points per game in all games and 100.6 per game on their home court. It is hard to cover such a large number when your defense gives up that many points and your offense only averages 101.4 points per game.

3* No Doubt Rout on Portland -

The New York Knicks are really hurting right now. They are in the middle of a five game road stretch with a 0-2 start. They are playing in a back to back situation coming from a blowout loss against Denver last night. The Knicks average margin of defeat in these last two games is 26 points. Injuries have plagued key players for New York and they are simply not the same team with Carmelo Anthony nursing a knee injury.

The Knicks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning home record. Portland is 4-1 ATS in their last five against Atlantic division teams. Portland is coming off a pair of losses and they should be able to bounce back strong against this beat up Knicks team. The Trail Blazers are 29-14 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the last three seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Knicks +

You should always play against a team revenging a loss like Denver where the opponent scored 100 points or more and that opponent is off a blowout loss of 20 points or more. This system is 86-46 (65%) over the last five seasons. The Knicks had a poor shooting performance in the loss to Golden State. They shot 27.4% from the field and that is not likely to occur again considering New York averages 44% on the season.

The hot streak that Denver is on has forced the oddsmakers to drive this line up much higher than it should be. The fact that New York had such a poor performance in their last outing adds even more value. You should always play on road teams after a blowout loss by 20 points or more when they are playing against an opponent that has scored 100 points or more in four straight games. This system is 53-25 (68%) ATS.

4* Total Dominator on Grizzlies/Clippers UNDER

You should always play the under in a game involving two good teams winning 60% to 75% of their games when playing in March. This system is 86-40 (68%) over the last five seasons. The second half of the NBA season can take its toll on even the best of teams and a tired team will not score as many points because they will not be out running on fast break plays.

The under is 4-1 in the Grizzlies last five games against teams with a winning record and the Clippers are 4-0 to the under in that same scenario. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 head to head meetings between these teams. The Memphis defense is one of the best in the league holding opponents to 89.5 points per game. The oddsmakers have set this total based on the offensive production of the Clippers at home rather than the defensive numbers for both teams making the UNDER a value play.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Pistons +

The Warriors are struggling as they come into this game against the Pistons. They have lost two of their last three games because of poor shooting performances. The Warriors have not covered a double digit line at home in over a month when they faced the Phoenix Suns. You should always play on road underdogs of 10 or more points after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread when they are playing against an opponent that has failed to cover 5 of the last 7 against the spread. This system is 26-5 (84%) over the last five seasons.

You should also play against favorites of 10 or more points after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game. A strong performance like that has a tendency to drive a line up much higher than it should be. In this specific case that win was related to a 27% shooting performance from New York. It had very little to do with Golden State playing well. This system is 115-73 (61.2%) ATS.

3* No Doubt Rout on Rockets -

Phoenix is one of the league

3* No Doubt Rout on Raptors +

The Celtics are struggling right now dropping their last two games by big margins against Oklahoma City and Charlotte. You should always play against a team like Boston when they are coming off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more points and they are winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. This system is 91-48 (65.5%) ATS.

The Raptors are 5-1-1 ATS their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their home games. They come into today

3* No Doubt Rout on Minnesota T

3* Oddsmakers Error on New Orleans Hornets +

Brooklyn lost last night on the road against Philadelphia and now they have to travel home to take on New Orleans in a back to back game without rest. The Nets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games and playing without rest does not do anything to inspire confidence that they can improve on that number.

Brooklyn is also 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games against Western Conference teams and more specifically 1-8 ATS against Southwest Division teams. The struggles for Brooklyn have come on the defensive end of the court. In their last four games they have forced an average of 11.5 turnovers per game. They allowed 52.6% shooting in their game last night against Philadelphia.

3* Total Dominator on Hawks/Heat UNDER

The Atlanta Hawks have gone under the total in four of their last five road games and under in five of their last seven overall. The Miami Heat have gone under the total in three of their last five games overall with one game going over and one game ending on a push. In head to head meetings between these teams the under is 14-3 in the last 17 games played at Miami.

As good as the Heat are, they do have their weaknesses. They are not a great rebounding team averaging 45.7 boards per game at home. Atlanta is 15-5 to the under against teams averaging 48 or less rebounds per game over the last two seasons. The Hawks are a good team holding opponents to 96.1 points per game on the road. Atlanta knows they cannot win this game if they get into a shootout with the Heat so they should have a game plan in place that will slow down Miami's scoring and help keep this game under the total.

4* Vegas Insider on San Antonio Spurs -

The Spurs are a great team and they are coming off an embarrassing loss to Portland. They have now had a couple days of rest and should get back to their true form against Oklahoma City tonight. You should always play on a good team outscoring opponents by an average of 3 or more points per game after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. This system is 118-73 (62%) over the last five seasons.

The Thunder are playing in a back to back situation tonight. They faced the Boston Celtics last night on their home court and will now travel to San Antonio to take on the well-rested Spurs. You should play on home favorites like San Antonio when they are playing their 2nd game in 5 days against an opponent playing their 4th game in 5 days. This system is 34-9 (79%) over the last five seasons.

These teams are very evenly matched. They share similar offensive numbers as well as overall records that are almost identical, with a slight edge going to the Spurs. In the second half of the season we have to give the nod to not only the team playing on more rest, but the team playing on their home court. The Spurs should rebound from the loss to Portland with a big win over the Thunder today.

4* No Brainer on Brooklyn Nets -

Philadelphia is going through a really bad stretch right now. They have lost 12 of their last 13 games and are coming off three straight losses on the road. They are now playing in a back to back after traveling from Orlando last night. You should play against a team with two straight losses against an opponent when they are coming off three or more consecutive road losses. This system is 77-40 (66%) over the last five seasons.

You should also play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points when they are a tired team playing their 5th game in 7 days and they are a bad team winning 25-40% of their games on the season. This system is 58-24 (71%) since 1996. The Nets are the well-rested team, and they already have a better win percentage on the road than the 76ers have at home. Brooklyn has won three straight by a double digit margin and that trend of domination over their opponents will continue tonight against Philadelphia.

4* Heavy Hitter on Portland Blazers -

Lately these teams are trending in opposite directions. Portland is hot having won four of their last six straight up and while New Orleans has lost five of their last six. The Trail Blazers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 against Western Conference teams. The New Orleans Hornets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall and they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against Western Conference teams.

The Hornets are playing in a back to back situation. They were in Memphis last night where they were handed an 11 point loss and then had to travel straight home to take on Portland today. New Orleans is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing in a back to back with no rest.

New Orleans has one of the worst home records of any team in the NBA. They are 11-20 straight up and have a 13-18 ATS record on their home court. Their offense has actually performed better on the road than they have at home. They average 93 points per game while allowing 95.2 points per game in home games. Portland may not be a great team, but they are certainly the better team and should have no problem handing New Orleans their fourth straight loss.

4* HEAVY HITTER on Milwaukee +

In the second half of the season a well rested team is usually a safe play. You should always play against home favorites like Golden State after they have lost 4 or 5 of their last six games playing in a back to back situation. This system is 96-53 (64.4%) over the last five seasons.

Milwaukee is playing on two days of rest and they have won four of their last five games. They are the hot team coming into this game playing a Golden State team that has been overrated for most of the season. It appears to be catching up to the Warriors as they have dropped five of their last seven games.

A key indicator that the Warriors are overrated is the fact that they average 100.8 points per game while allowing 101.4 points per game. When teams are giving up more points than they are scoring, yet have a winning record it usually means they have played a soft schedule and are not as talented as their record makes them appear. Take the points with Milwaukee.

3* Main Event on Minnesota +

This is way too many points to be giving Minnesota today. You should always play on underdogs of 10 or more points like Minnesota when they have lost 2 of their last 3 games but they are playing on 2 or more days of rest. This system is 28-7 (80%) over the last five seasons.

In head to head meetings between these teams Minnesota is 10-1 ATS when playing at Denver. The Nuggets are playing on just one day of rest and they are coming off a big win over the Clippers so they are in a spot to have a let down performance against Minnesota. The Nuggets defense has been horrible this season allowing 101.6 points per game. The well rested team getting a large number of points is the smart play in this game.

3* NO DOUBT ROUT on Wizards +

The Wizards may be 5-23 away from home, but they are an impressive 17-10 ATS on the road. The Washington Wizards are 20-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season and 10-1 ATS when that team is barely over .500, winning 51% to 60% of their games on the season.

Brooklyn does not play pressure defense. They are getting 13 turnovers per game while committing 14 of their own. Washington is 20-10 ATS against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing less than 14 turnovers per game this season. That lack of pressure defense is also a sign that Brooklyn is not a very physical team. Washington is 29-17 ATS against teams committing 21 or less fouls per game this season.

Brooklyn is struggling right now having lost four of their last six games. They are coming off three games with 19, 21 and 24 turnovers respectively. They picked up a win against Charlotte with that many turnovers, but the Wizards will dominate Brooklyn if they pull that same stunt. Considering how poor Brooklyn is playing taking the points is the smart play in this game.

3* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Bobcats +

Even though the Bobcats have a bad overall record they do have some bright spots. They are a great ball handling team averaging just 13 turnovers per game. You should always play against road favorites of 10 or more points when they are allowing 41.5% to 43.5% shooting and committing 14-5-16.5 turnovers playing against a team allowing 45.5% to 47.5% shooting and committing less than 14.5 turnovers. This system is 32-12 (72.7%) the last 44 times this matchup scenario has occurred.

The cold play of the Bobcats and the hot play of the Thunder has forced the oddsmakers to make this line much larger than it should be making Charlotte the value play. You should always play on a cold team failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games against an opponent that has covered the spread 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. This system is 90-51 (63.8%) since 1996.

5* Total NO BRAINER on Bobcats/Thunder UNDER

The Thunder have gone under the total in 4 of their last 6 games while the Bobcats have gone under in 10 of their last 13 games. Oklahoma may have the explosive offense but they are playing in a back to back situation and coming from a hard fought battle against the Knicks at New York. Charlotte is playing on a day of rest and the only three games in the last 13 that have gone over the total have come when the Bobcats were forced to play in a back to back situation.

You should play the under in games involving a team allowing 103+ points per game on the season coming off a blowout loss by 20 points or more. This system is 226-147 (60.6%) since 1996. You should also play the under in games where the total is greater than 200 and the road team, Oklahoma City, is averaging 102 or more points per game against a team that averages 92-98 points per game, after allowing 55 or more points in the first half in two straight games. This system is 37-12 (75.5%) to the under over the last five seasons. When teams are allowing a big first half they make defensive adjustments to ensure they do not fall behind early which also helps keep games under the total.

4* NBA TOTAL DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER

When teams are getting blowout wins it is usually because their defense is playing well. The Grizzlies just held Orlando to 82 points. Portland has played a couple of back to back soft games so they may not be prepared when facing this stout Grizzlies defense. You should always play the under when one of the teams is coming off a win by 10 or more points like Portland, and they are playing against an opponent off a win by 20 or more points. This system is 351-248 (58.6%) since 1996. When that team

4* NBA HEAVY HITTER on Hawks -8

The Philadelphia 76ers are struggling right now having lost 9 of their last 10 games. Things are not getting much easier as they face a tough Atlanta team in Atlanta and playing on a back to back after getting pounded on by Boston last night. Philadelphia has lost their last 5 consecutive road games and they are now 6-20 straight up on the road on the season.

The 76ers are 2-11 ATS in road games when playing against a team winning between 51-60% of their games over the last 2 seasons and they are 4-15 ATS against good shooting teams that are making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are putting up a solid 100.2 points per game at home while the 76ers are scoring only 90.2 points per game on the road.

Atlanta is coming off a six game road stretch and they have a day of rest going into this matchup with this 76ers tonight. The well-rested team is the smart play because not only are the 76ers tired, they are in a serious slump right now too.

3* NBA HIGH ROLLER on Bobcats +

The Brooklyn Nets are in a slump right now. They have lost four of their last five games and have averaged only 88.8 points per game in that span. The oddsmakers have undervalued the Bobcats considering how poorly Brooklyn has been playing.

When Brooklyn gets into a slump it tends to last a while. They are 9-20 ATS after having lost three of their last four games over the last two seasons. This is Brooklyn

3* Oddsmakers Error on Sacramento Kings +

The Denver Nuggets are one of the most inconsistent road teams in the league. They have not won three road games in a row all season long. They beat Charlotte and Portland in their last two road games but they are playing a back to back after facing Atlanta on their home court last night.

The Sacramento Kings are a well rested team that have won two of their last three games. Playing on their home court against a team that is not rested at all and giving the Kings points makes them a strong value play. Denver is allowing 104 points per game on the road and Sacramento has been scoring 102.7 per game on their home court.

Denver has two wins over Sacramento this season, but the Kings are 12-2 ATS when revenging two straight losses of 10 points or more against an opponent over the last two seasons. Sacramento is 11-7 at home since Dec. 5 and with Denver sitting on a 13-19 road record it appears the oddsmakers may have made an error on this line.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Toronto Raptors +

Golden State is playing in one of the toughest stretches they will see this season. They just finished five consecutive road games and get only one day of rest before playing against Toronto tonight. You should always play against favorites like Golden State when they have had 4 or more consecutive losses and they are an extremely tired team playing their 5th game in 7 days. This system is 41-16 (71.9%) since 1996.

The Raptors play well against good teams and they do not get a lot of respect from the oddsmakers in the process. Toronto is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games against teams winning 60% or more of their home games. They are 6-2 ATS on the road overall and 5-2 in their last 7 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Golden State is 1-5 in their last 5 games overall and 2-7 ATS following a loss. When the Warriors allow 100 points or more in their last game they are 2-6 ATS. The Golden State defense has been horrible allowing 101.5 points per game. They are an overrated team whose scoring average of 100.9 points is actually less than their points allowed.

3* High Roller on Portland -

The Portland Trailblazers are playing on a lot more rest than the Charlotte Bobcats. Portland is on their 3rd game in the last 8 days while Charlotte is playing their 4th consecutive road game in the last 7 days. This is also a back to back game for the Bobcats. They received a 36 point beat down from Sacramento last night.

Portland tough place to play which is why the Trailblazers are 19-10 on their home court and 4-1 ATS at home in their last 5 games. The Bobcats are a bad road team, allowing 103.5 points per game while scoring only 90.4 and sitting on an 0-5 ATS record their last 5 road games.

The Trailblazers are the hot team coming into this game winning 2 of their last 3 games and they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games. Charlotte has lost six consecutive games straight up and ATS. This is their final game on a four game road stretch and they are playing like they can

3* No Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavs +

The Cavaliers are a young team that has been improving all season. They have now won four of their last six games and six of their last seven ATS. The Knicks appear to be moving in the opposite direction losing five of their last eight and they are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

Cleveland will have Kyrie Irving back for this game which should help provide them with an immediate boost in production. Cleveland is 14-3 ATS against Eastern Conference teams and an even more impressive 4-0 ATS against the Atlantic division. The Knicks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against Eastern Conference teams and 0-5-1 in their last 6 games coming off a straight up loss.

The Knicks are barely a .500 team on the road and they are below .500 ATS. The recent success for Cleveland has been in large part because of their ability to prevent their opponent from getting a rebound advantage. With the exception of their loss to the Clippers, the Cavaliers have held their last seven opponents to an average of less than 45 rebounds per game. The Cavaliers also own the head to head advantage on games played at Cleveland with a 5-0 ATS record.

5* Total NO BRAINER on Pacers/Bulls UNDER

You should always play the under when one team allowed 40 points or less in the first half in two straight games like the Chicago Bulls have done. This system is 126-75 (62.7%) to the under over the last five seasons. The Bulls defense is playing well right now and they have gone under the total in four of their last six games. The Pacers defense has been solid all season allowing a mere 88.8 points per game at home.

Chicago is 32-12 to the under when they are revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. That number tightens up to 15-2 to the under when they are revenging a road loss of 10 points or more. Both of these teams had uncharacteristic performances in the last meeting with each team allowing over 100 points. That should have both teams making defensive adjustments for today

3* No Doubt Rout on Pacers -

The last time these teams met the Pacers crushed the Bulls with a 111-101 final score. The Bulls are 2-2 in their last four games and they have been struggling since the start of February with a 6-8 record. The Pacers on the other hand have really turned things on winning 11 of their last 14 games. Indiana is 17-10 ATS when playing at home giving them one of the strongest home court advantages in the NBA.

It has been an inconsistent season for Chicago this year which explains why they are 8-17 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this season. The Pacers are 25-12 ATS as a favorite this season and 11-3 ATS in home games after playing on the road.

This game may not be the shootout it was last month when these teams met, but the end result should be about the same with the Pacers getting a big win over Chicago. The Bulls struggles in the second half of the season make Indiana the smart play in this matchup.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Thunder +

The oddsmakers may have the wrong team favored in this matchup but we will take the points on the thunder. You should play against home favorites like the Clippers when they are playing a double revenge game against an opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite. This system is 73-35 (67.6%) over the last five seasons.

You should play on road teams like Oklahoma City where the line is +3 to -1 after a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more and they are a well-rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days. This system is 31-9 (77.5%) over the last five seasons.

The last time these teams played in Oklahoma City the Thunder dominated the Clippers by 12 points. The Thunder shot 52.6% against a soft Clippers defense. A change in venue is not enough to change the end results as the Thunder should roll in this game.

5* Total NO BRAINER on Clippers/Thunder UNDER

Well rested teams play better defense and both the Clippers and Thunder have played 6 or less games over the last two weeks. You should always play the under when the total is 200 or more and the home team has a winning record and is a well-rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days playing another team with a winning record. This system is 201-136 (59.6%) to the under over the last five seasons.

You should also play the under when the road team, Oklahoma City, is off an upset loss as a road favorite and they have a winning record on the season and are playing another winning team. This system is 62-25 (71.3%) since 1996.

Since the Clippers were blown out in the last game against the Thunder they will come into this game with a defense oriented game plan. They cannot allow the Thunder to score 109 points again if they want to win this game.

3* Total Dominator Knicks/Heat UNDER

This game falls into a system to play the under when a team like Miami is revenging two consecutive straight up losses to an opponent as a favorite and they are a good team winning 60-75% of their games playing a team with a winning record. This system is 120-72 (62.5%) since 1996. Without a doubt the Miami Heat will be coming into this game with a plan of attack that prevents the Knicks from turning this game into a shootout.

The Heat are allowing 95.4 points per game on the road this season while the Knicks have allowed 94.9 points per game at home. Neither team gets into foul trouble which means there will be very few points put on the board with the clock stopped. The Knicks are not shooting well right now at 41.5% in their last five games.

The Under is 6-1 in the Knicks last seven games following an ATS win and 8-3-1 in the Heat

3* No Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -

Toronto is 1-4 ATS in their last five games. You should always play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Toronto when they coming off a home loss and are revenging a home loss to their opponent. This system is 124-66 (65.3%) over the last five seasons.

In the last 11 head to head meetings between these teams the Bucks are 9-2 ATS. Milwaukee is 32-15 ATS against Atlantic division opponents over the last three seasons. It seems as though they will easily improve that number when they face a Toronto team that has allowed 102 points per game on the road while scoring only 96.5 what they are away from home.

The Raptors are playing without any rest. They traveled from Indiana to Milwaukee and will start a four game road stretch with this game against the Bucks. Milwaukee is playing on two days of rest and coming off solid back to back performances against Houston and Dallas. Milwaukee is the hot team, the well-rested team and the smart play laying such a small number on their home court.

5* NBA TOTAL NO BRAINER on Kings/Spurs OVER

The Kings run a lazy defense, and they average over 20 fouls per game when playing on the road. Sacramento is 20-7 to the over when playing against good free throw shooting teams that are making 76% or more of their attempts this season. It seems like the Kings have stopped playing defense all together, going over the total in eight of their last nine games. In head to head matchups between these teams the over is 4-1 the last 5 games being played at San Antonio. Head coach Keith Smart is 27-13 to the over when playing with double revenge after 2 straight losses against an opponent as the coach of Sacramento.

The Kings are allowing 104.8 points per game when playing on the road and the Spurs are scoring 105 points per game at home. Sacramento is averaging over 111 points per game in their last five games so it is safe to say their offense is hot right now. The Spurs just finished a 9 game run on the road to come home and give up 105 points to the Phoenix Suns. They have had only one day of rest and now face a Sacramento team that is putting points on the board with ease. This game should have no problem going over the total.

4* NBA TOTAL DOMINATOR on Raptors/Pacers UNDER

Indiana is 17-8 to the under when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Some teams make adjustments to the offense and others to the defense when they are not playing well. The Raptors are a team that makes defensive adjustments which explains why they are 30-16 to the under after failing to cover two of their last three games against the spread over the last two seasons. The Raptors lost as a favorite against Golden State and as a favorite against the Clippers. Head coach Dwane Casey will certainly have a plan to slow down the Pacers which will help us on the under.

Indiana is allowing 89.6 points per game and scoring only 89.2 points per game when playing on the road. Toronto has allowed 95.4 points at home, but the Pacers are one of the worst road teams in the league when it comes to scoring so they should be able to perform much better than their statistical average. Neither team has problems with foul trouble which is good for an under because it keeps the clock running.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Chicago Bulls -7

Both of these teams have been plagued by key injuries this season. Rose and Bynum are still out and both Chicago and Philadelphia are in desperate need of a win. You should always play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Philadelphia when they are trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent that is off a home loss. This system is 123-66 (65.1%) over the last five seasons.

The 76ers are 26-43 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons and 5-15 ATS in road games against teams winning 51-60% of their games over the last three seasons. Philadelphia has lost six consecutive games coming into this matchup and their defense has allowed over 50% shooting in two of their last three games.

The Bulls got the wake-up call they needed when they lost to Cleveland straight up going into that game favored by 8.5 points. Chicago should be motivated for this matchup against a struggling team from Philadelphia. Laying the points is the smart play for this game.

3* VEGAS INSIDER on Utah Jazz -

The Jazz have the best home court advantage in the NBA and they are coming off a home loss to the Celtics so they should be motivated to pick up a win against the Hawks. Utah is 21-7 at home and 17-11 ATS. Atlanta

4* NO DOUBT ROUT on San Antonio Spurs -

The Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games and 0-4 ATS when playing on 0 days of rest. They are one of the worst teams in the league and have been horrible on the road. They now face a Spurs team that is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 2 days of rest and 20-5-2 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams winning 40% or less of their games on the road.

The Spurs are 30-13-3 ATS against teams with a losing record and the favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these teams. San Antonio is 36-15-3 ATS in their last 54 games at home and with the Suns playing in a back to back and coming off a game that went to overtime last night we have a perfect setup for a blowout.

3* HIGH ROLLER on New York Knicks -

The Warriors are in a tough travel spot going from Indiana to New York for back to back games. There was a fight late in the game against the Pacers and the worry of potential suspensions has to be hanging over the Warriors heads. Golden State is 7-21 ATS against teams making 36% or more of their three point attempts in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.

There is a big sign that the Warriors are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this year. They have a winning record, but they are not outscoring their opponents. Golden State has allowed 104.6 points per game on the road while scoring a mere 100.5 of their own. Teams that are not outscoring their opponents but have an overall winning record are generally teams that are overrated and struggle against good teams. The Knicks are definitely a good team and they have had two days of rest coming into this game.

4* HEAVY HITTER on Toronto Raptors -

The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games and 14-3 ATS against teams with a win percentage at 40% or less. Cleveland played last night in Chicago and got an upset victory over the Bulls. They are in a spot for a letdown performance tonight against Toronto.

Kyrie Irving did not play last night due to a knee injury and he is doubtful for tonight

5* NBA TOTAL NO BRAINER on Kings/Magic OVER

You should play on the over when the game involves two average offensive teams scoring 92-98 points per game after one of those teams allowed 105 points or more in three straight games. In this matchup that team would be Sacramento and this system is 42-18 (70%) over the last five seasons.

Sacramento has had a lot of foul trouble this season. When a team has a lot of fouls it makes sense that the game would go over the total. The clock is stopped and points are getting put on the board. Sacramento is 19-7 to the over vs. good free throw shooting teams that are making 76% or more of their attempts this season. Orlando is 15-4 to the over against up-temp teams that are averaging 83 or more shots per game in the send half of the season over the last three seasons.

Both of these teams struggle defensively. Sacramento is allowing 105 points per game on the road while Orlando is allowing over 100 points per game at home. With both teams making a lot of shot attempts and neither team having very good numbers defensively the over is the no brainer in this game.

5* Total No Brainer Mavs/Bucks UNDER

Both teams are coming off home losses with Milwaukee losing to Atlanta as a -4.5 favorite and Dallas losing to the Lakers as a -3 point favorite. You should play the under in a game where the total is over 200 and both teams are off an upset loss as a favorite and at least one of those losses came as a home favorite. This system is 86-52 (62.3%) the last 138 times the situation has occurred.

The under is 5-0-1 in Milwaukee

4* No Limit on Orlando +

You should always play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Philadelphia when they are off a loss against a division rival, with a win percentage between 40-49% on the season. This situation is 30-13 (69.8%) over the last five seasons. Losing teams like Philadelphia should not be big favorites against any team.

You should also play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Orlando after 5 or more consecutive losses in the second half of the season. This situation is 46-22 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The 76ers have also lost five consecutive games in the second half of the season so to be listed as such a heavy favorite makes Orlando the value play.

The Magic are 9-4 ATS coming off a double digit loss at home and playing on two days of rest compared to one day for Philadelphia. This late in the season taking the points on a team that has more rest in a game involving two equally bad teams is the smart move.

3* Main Event on Utah -

This will be the fifth road game in the last seven days for the Celtics who are playing a back to back game coming from Portland. Boston has lost three out of four on this road stretch and things will not get any easier when they face a Utah team that has the best home court advantage in the league. The Jazz are 17-10 ATS when playing at home and 21-6 straight up. They average 100.9 points per game and 46.4% shooting from the field at Energy Solutions Arena.

The Jazz have been hot lately winning three of their last four games. Playing on an extra day of rest over the Celtics should allow them to bounce back from their off night against the Clippers. Utah is 23-10 ATS over the last two seasons when they are playing in a home game and coming off a game they failed to cover the spread. They are also 10-2 ATS in home games after playing as a road underdog this season.

The Celtics got hot after Rondo went out with an injury but teams have adjusted their game plan against Boston and they are really struggling right now losing three of their last five games. Any road game in the NBA is tough, but with the Celtics playing in their now fifth consecutive game on the road and playing in a back to back situation, things have lined up for the Jazz to get an easy win on their home court.

4* TOTAL DOMINATOR on Bulls/Thunder UNDER

You should play the under on a game where one team, Chicago, has allowed 90 points or less in three straight games is playing against an opponent, Oklahoma City, scoring 100 points or more in three straight games. This trend is 28-8 (77.8%) over the last 5 seasons. Chicago is also 23-11 to the under versus good teams that are outscoring their opponents by 3+ points per game over the last 2 seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Portland -

The Celtics are 9-17 on the road and play a Portland team that is 17-9 on their home court. Boston is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning home record. They are also 6-13 in their last 19 games on the road.

This is the fourth road game in six days for Boston. The Trailblazers are a well-rested team playing their third game in the last seven days. In the second half of the season those extra days of rest can be huge difference makers for teams.

The Portland defense has been improving forcing 16.5 turnovers in their last two games while scoring 102.5 points per game in that same span. The home team laying such a small number is the value play in this matchup.

3* No Doubt Rout on Cleveland +

Cleveland has played well against Southeast division opponents with a 10-1 ATS record in their last 11. The Cavaliers are also 18-8 ATS over the last two seasons in the second leg of back to back road games and this young team is improving every night as the season progresses.

The Cavaliers are playing well right now having won two of their last three games. The loss in that span came by one point against San Antonio in a great game. Their recent success is due in large part to the lack of turnovers. They have averaged 9.3 turnovers per game in their last three outings.

Miami has played well recently, but they are trending in the wrong direction statistically and it may catch up with them tonight. They average just 41 rebounds per game and had 17 turnovers in their game against Chicago last Thursday. Miami is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games against Central division opponents and they are laying too many points tonight.

5* NO BRAINER on Cleveland/Miami UNDER

Always play the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points in a game involving a team like Miami that is outscoring their opponents by 3+ points per game and playing against an opponent coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more. This system is 58-30 (65.9%) over the last 5 seasons. Miami is also 13-4 to the under in home games when playing their third game in four days over the last two seasons.

3* BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Milwaukee -

The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against Central division teams and 1-4 in their last five against teams in the Eastern Conference. They average just 9 offensive rebounds per game when playing on the road and have done a horrible job of forcing turnovers. Their free throw shooting has been abysmal, averaging just 70.6% when playing away from home.

Atlanta has not done well against teams that attempt a lot of three point shots. They are 11-21 ATS against teams attempting 18 or more from beyond the three point line and they have allowed 39.8% of those shots to go in when playing on the road. Their soft defense against the three ball provides a great opportunity for Milwaukee to pick up a big win on their home court tonight.

4* NO BRAINER on Cleveland +

Cleveland is not getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers right now. The Cavs have covered the number in five of their last seven games and now face an Orlando team that has been beat up with injuries this season.

The Cavaliers are a young team that is improving as the season progresses. They are 15-12 ATS on the road compared to Orlando who is 8-19 ATS on their home court. The Magic are allowing 99.4 points per game and have struggled on the boards, particularly on the offensive end, which is a big contributing factor to their failure of a season.

Cleveland has played Southeast division teams well and it has earned them a 9-1 ATS record in the process. Orlando has lost 15 of their last 16 games and Cleveland has been heating up winning 7 of their last 12 games coming into this matchup. The Cavaliers are also playing on two days rest while Orlando is coming off a road came at Memphis last night.

3* No Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -

The Timberwolves are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against teams from the Northwest division. They are allowing opponents over 100 points per game in division games and giving up almost 50% shooting from the field when playing on the road.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games overall. The Thunder are coming off three consecutive straight up and ATS losses and they should take out those frustrations on this horrible Timberwolves team.

Head Coach Scott Brooks is 40-21 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread as the coach of the Thunder. Minnesota has not been the same since they lost Kevin Love and this game should be ugly when the Timberwolves face one of the best teams in the league.

3* Main Event on Brooklyn Nets -

Brooklyn is the hot team coming into this game with a four game win streak. The Nets are 13-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins and will try to keep that momentum alive against the Houston Rockets today. Deron Williams is playing well coming off a 23 point performance with eight assists to help the Nets come back from 15 points down against Milwaukee.

Houston

3* Oddsmakers Error on Charlotte Bobcats +

The Bulls have not performed well against Southeast division teams. They have a 3-9 ATS record in their last 12 games against the Southeast and a 3-9 ATS record in their last 12 vs a team with a losing record.

It is best to play against a team like Chicago when they are off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 80 points. This trend is 112-72 (60.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. When that team is playing on the road in their next game the trend tightest up to 62-33 (65.3%) over that same time span.

The Bulls are 3-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and they seem to be in some kind of a funk right now. They have lost five of their last seven games and have played eight of their last 10 games on the road. That much travel in a short span of time appears to be taking its toll on Chicago making the Bobcats the value play in this game.

3* TOTAL NO BRAINER on Heat/Bulls UNDER

Always play the under when there is an extremely well rested team like Chicago who is winning 51-60% of their games and playing 3 or less games in 10 days and facing a winning team. This system has gone under the total in 30 of the last 41 games during the last five seasons.

Chicago is 8-0 to the under in home games against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 or less turnovers per game this season. They are also 21-6 favoring the under in games against Southeast division teams over the last two seasons.

The Bulls defense has been remarkable at home holding opponents to 88.9 points per game and only 41.1% shooting. The offense shoots only 42.8% in home games and with those to factors combined all signs point to a low scoring game tonight.

3* Main Event on Los Angeles Lakers -

This is game two of a five game road stretch for the Celtics. If their game against Denver is any indicator this could be an ugly run for Boston fans. Boston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss while the Lakers are 5-1 in their last six following a loss of more than 10 points.

Boston is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games and playing in Los Angeles is going to be tough. The Lakers are playing on five days of rest compared to the Celtics who just played on the road in Denver last night. This late in the season teams are starting to get tired and traveling for back to back road games will take its toll on the Celtics in this matchup.

3* Bailout Blowout on Dallas Mavericks -

The Magic are a team that relies on turnovers to play in close games. With a 15-38 record this season it is obvious they lack the talent it takes to win without forcing turnovers. Orlando is 6-17 ATS versus good ball handling teams that are committing 14 or less turnovers per game this season.

The Mavericks are the hot team right now as they attempt to make a late season rally towards the playoffs. They have won three of their last four games and the offense is averaging 111.25 points per game in that span.

The Magic have lost eight consecutive games on the road and their defense has been horrible. They gave up 119 points against Cleveland, 107 points against Milwaukee and were beat by 17 points against Philadelphia in their last three road games. The Mavericks are hungry for a playoff berth and should have no problem handling Orlando tonight.

4* TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Thunder UNDER

The value in this game is on the under as the oddsmakers have set this total a little too high. Always play the under when there is an extremely well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days like Houston, and they are winning between 51-60% of their games in a matchup against another winning team. This system is 153-103 ATS for the last five seasons.

Oklahoma City is 19-9 to the under off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons while Houston is 33-14 to the under in home games after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games since 1996. With Houston playing as a well rested team and being on their home court they should be able to control the tempo of this game. The Rockets know if they get into a shootout with the Thunder they will have no chance to win this game. Houston should be able to slow things down at least long enough to make the under the value play in this matchup.

3* Total Dominator on Heat/Hawks UNDER

The under is 18-7 in Miami's last 25 games and 17-6 in Atlanta

3* Total No Brainer Bobcats/Pistons OVER

The Detroit Pistons are 25-13 to the over against teams being outscored by their opponents by 3 or more points per game over the last two seasons. That tightens up to 26-10 to the over when their opponent is outscored by 6 or more points per game. The over is also 4-0 in the Pistons last 4 games against a team with a losing record. It is the same story for Charlotte at 4-0 to the over against teams with a losing record.

The Bobcats and Pistons have gone over the total four of the last five times these teams played in Charlotte. The Bobcats have allowed 102 points per game at home and they have allowed opponents to shoot 38.1% from beyond the three point line. They do not run a tight defense and they give up a lot of easy points. The Piston

3* BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Portland -

The extra rest from the all-star break is exactly what this Portland team needed. They had a poor finish to the first half of the season losing their last five games, but they should bounce back strong against a bad team tonight.

The Suns are not a team that gets revenge from prior losses. Phoenix is 9-18 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent this season and they are 24-43 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last 3 seasons.

Portland has played well at home this season with a 17-8 straight up record. Phoenix is 5-23 on the road. With the better team getting some much needed rest this game should be an easy home win for Portland.

3* TOTAL NO BRAINER Chicago/New Orleans UNDER

It is better to play the under in a game involving a team averaging 92-98 points per game like Chicago against an average defensive team allowing 92-98 points per game after 42 or more games and coming off a performance where they allowed 75 points or less. This trend is 93-49 since 1996.

New Orleans plays better on defense when they are facing a team with a winning record on their home court and they are 22-11 to the under in that situation over the last two seasons. The Bulls are a team that gets a lot of their points off of turnovers and New Orleans averages just 13 turnovers per game at home this season.

The Bulls are 60-38 to the under against good ball handling teams like New Orleans in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons and with both teams having some extra rest from the NBA all-star break this game should be a defensive battle.

3* MAIN EVENT on Memphis -

The Memphis Grizzlies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference opponents while the Detroit Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference teams. The Pistons are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.

The Pistons are barely over .500 on their home court and have a losing ATS record when playing in Detroit. They are a poor free throw shooting team making 68.9% of their attempts at home.

Memphis has been hot on offense averaging 104 PPG in their last three grams and 98.8 PPG in their last five. This matchup falls into a system to play on a road favorite like Memphis after they have gone over the total by 42 points or more in their last five games and they have a winning record on the season. This system is 102-57 ATS over the last five seasons.

4* TOTAL DOMINATOR Charlotte/Orlando OVER

This matchup falls into a system to play on the over where the total is between 190-199.5 points in a game involving two poor defensive teams that allow 45.5-47.5% shooting and two average rebounding teams after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 208-140 since 1996.

This game also falls into a system to play the over when one of the teams is off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival when the opponent is off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points. Both Charlotte and Orlando scored less than 80 points in their last game and suffered embarrassing losses with Charlotte losing to Indiana and Orlando losing to Atlanta. This system is 31-5 ATS since 1996.

The Magic are not a team that gets to the foul line very often and the Bobcats are 13-5 to the over versus teams attempting 21 or less free throws per game this season. The Bobcats average 20 fouls per game on the road so they are obviously giving up a lot of easy baskets. Orlando is 22-11 to the over versus teams who average 21 or less fouls per game this season.

3* Marquee Mismatch on Oklahoma City -

I expect Oklahoma City to get some revenge here tonight to close out their first half. The Thunder will be highly motivated to prove to themselves and the rest of the league that they can compete with the Heat after losing to Miami not only in last year's finals, but also on Christmas day. The Heat come into this game an impressive 35-14 to lead the East, but they are just 12-11 on the road. Oklahoma City on the other hand is 39-13 and 23-3 at home. They are beating teams by 9.2 ppg, but when in OKC that number jumps even higher to 13.2.

The way both of these teams played leading into the game also created us some value. Miami is on a six game winning streak and has won three straight at the pay window. They won their last four games by double digits, but those games came in South Florida. The Thunder on the other hand got caught looking past Utah to this game on Tuesday night and lost in Salt Lake, a notoriously difficult place to play. That loss also sets us up for a nice little situational play that says to take favorites who are outscoring their opponents by 3+ points per game when they are coming off a blowout loss by 15 points or more. These teams are 86-48 (64.2%) over the last five seasons.

4* NBA NO BRAINER on Mavs over Kings

This is a good matchup for Dallas over Sacramento. The Kings are terrible on the road at 5-21, losing by an average of 10.7 ppg. Dallas on the other hand is 14-10 at home and winning by 3.3 ppg. Sacramento is coming off a loss at Memphis last night and will be playing their fourth game in five nights tonight. With the All-Star break coming up, this is a prime situation for a bad team to look ahead to those precious days off.

Every game is important right now for Dallas. They are 5.5 games out of the last spot in the playoff race, but have been playing better since getting Dirk back in the lineup, so they aren't out of it yet. If they don't make up some ground fast though Cuban might give up on the season and start looking to build for next year. I think the Mavs will be fully focused tonight to close out with a win before the break.

Sacramento is just 5-16 ATS against teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots per game over the second half of the last two seasons while Dallas is 8-0 ATS against up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots per game the second half of the last two years.

3* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Wolves over Jazz

The Jazz have been without Gordon Hayward since January 26th and they have gone an impressive 5-3 without him, but a closer look at those games show that Utah only had to play two games on the road during that stretch and they lost to Portland and the Kings.

This might be a little bit of a letdown spot for Utah as they are coming off a big win against Oklahoma City last night in Salt Lake, and now have to travel to Minnesota and play a terrible team before the All-Star break. My feeling is they will be looking ahead.

Minnesota should be focused after losing by 22 in Utah back on January 2nd. In that game they shot just 2-for-17 from 3-point range and 34.5% overall. Those numbers were an aberration and I expect them to normalize a little here tonight.

Utah is a poor road team, going 9-18 away from home and losing by 5.3 ppg. Minnesota isn't a great team by any means, but they are 12-12 at home this year and winning by 1.8 ppg. There is some value with the home team here tonight.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Nets over Nuggets

Denver is a solid team, checking into this game at 33-19 overall, but they have struggled on the road in going 11-16. The problem is the Nuggets score 8 ppg less on the road and they allow 3 ppg more. That's quite a difference and is a big reason I like the Nets tonight.

Brooklyn hasn't played well lately, winning just four of their last 0 games, but a closer look at the schedule shows they played the role of an underdog in all but three of those games. It was a tough stretch to end the first half of the season and I think Brooklyn is going to be motivated to close out with a win.

4* NBA NO BRAINER on Houston Rockets +

This is too many points for the Rockets to be getting tonight at Golden State. I know that the Warriors are a better team than most people realize at 30-21, but their scoring margin is still only that of a .500 team at exactly 0. Houston on the other hand is 28-25 but is outscoring their opponents by 3 ppg so they are under-rated in my opinion.

Houston lost last time out at Sacramento as a six point favorite, so I expect them to buckle down on the second game of their road trip. Golden State on the other hand has lost four in a row on the road and were soundly beaten in each of those games. It all started with a 31 point loss in Houston. The public seems to think NBA teams come out for revenge, but actually you want to play against home teams revenging a road blowout loss by 20 points or more against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 121-71 (63%) since 1996.

I'll take the points here tonight.

3* on Pistons -

This is a good matchup for Detroit. New Orleans is a team that plays terrible defense, allowing opponents to shoot 47.4% in their road games and 37.2% from behind the 3-point line. The Hornets also get a lot of their points from the perimeter, hitting 37.3% of their 3-point attempts.

The Pistons though defend the three well, allowing opponents to hit just 32.8% from behind the arc. Detroit is also a solid shooting team at home, making 47% of their attempts and 37.3% of their 3's, so they should have no trouble scoring against the Hornets.

Add in the fact that Detroit is 17-6 ATS at home against teams who make 36% or more of their 3-point attempts the last two years and are 16-6 ATS against teams that allow 46% or more from the field and you can see why Detroit is the obvious play.

4* NBA NO BRAINER on Charlotte +

Boston is a hot team, you can't argue that. Ever since Rajon Rondo went down this team has won six in a row and covered in each. However, this is a tough spot for them as they have played a tough stretch of games. They went back-to-back against Toronto and LA then had a couple of days of before yesterday's triple overtime thriller against the Nuggets. This is a little big of a letdown spot for the Celtics as they will be forcing a poor team a day after their "old guys," Pierce played 54 minutes, Garnett 47, and Terry 42.

Charlotte has been struggling but even though they didn't cover their last two games, they were close. They lost to the Lakers by 7 as 6.5 point underdogs and they lost by 11 to the Sixers as 10 point dogs. This is their last home game before the All-Star break so I think they will bring a little something extra to try and pick up the win. Since Boston is just 8-14 this year away from home, losing by almost six points per game, I think there is a good chance they do just that.

You want to take home underdogs who have failed to cover four of their last five games against an opponent that has covered six or seven of their last eight. These teams are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS the last five seasons.

3* on Sixers +

The Clippers got back on track with a win yesterday in New York over the Knicks, but now will be playing their third game in four nights as they face Philadelphia. LA also might be a little short-handed as Caron Butler left yesterday's game in the third quarter with a back injury, Chris Paul is still not at full strength, and Matt Barnes has a hurt finger that may have contributed to his poor shooting over the last few games.

Philadelphia has now won four of their last five games both straight up and against the spread. They are playing fantastic defense in giving up under 40% in each of those games. Granted, none of those squads has the offensive firepower of the Clippers, but LA had lost four of five before yesterday's win and eight of their last 11. This clearly isn't the same team now as when everyone was 100%.

This is Philadelphia's last home game before the All-Star break and I think they will keep this one close.

4* NBA NO BRAINER on Houston -

Houston checks into this game scoring 106 points per contest while allowing only 102.9. Sacramento on the other hand is scoring 97.4 ppg while giving up 103.1. The difference in scoring margin alone strongly favors Houston, but the fact that the Kings can't stop anyone makes me love the high scoring Rockets.

Houston has now covered in seven of their last eight games wight heir only two straight up losses coming on the road against Denver and Miami. They haven't shot under 48% once during that stretch and they are coming off a 59.% shooting performance against Portland on Friday night.

Sacramento looked good last night against Utah, but the team had four days rest prior to that contest and was playing in a quick revenge spot with their previous game being a loss to the Jazz on the road. This was a team that had lost eight of their last nine before lsat night. They had given up over 52.8% in three of their last four games, which doesn't bode well when facing one of the best shooting teams in the league.

You want to take road teams that score 102+ ppg when playing a team that gives up 102+ ppg after 42 games. This situ ion is 162-99 (62.1%) since 1996.

4* HEAVY HITTER on Dallas -

This is a tough scheduling spot for the Warriors. This will be their fourth road game in five nights, and so far the road trip has been a disaster. It started with a 140-109 loss to Houston, followed by a 119-98 beating by the Thunder. Last night didn't get much better as Golden State lost by six in Memphis. Now, the Warriors get to face a Mavs team that has turned the corner.

Dirk Nowitzki missed the first part of the season and Dallas struggled. He came back on 12/23 but took awhile to get back into the swing of things. I'd say since about the start of the year he's came into form, so it's no surprise that the Mavs have won 8 of 13 straight up but an even more impressive 12 of 14 at the pay window. They have had a couple of days off since their home win over Portland to prepare for tonight's game, so I think they win big over Golden State and get their revenge for the close loss from a week and a half ago.

You want to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are playing their second game in five days against a team playing their 4th in five. These teams are 78-40 (66.1%) since 1996 and when they are at home they are 33-9 (78.6%) the last five seasons.

3* on Denver/Cleveland OVER

Can the Nuggets offense be stopped? They have put up 112 or more points in their last four games and haven't scored under 100 since back on January 16th. Surprisingly, the Cavs have turned into an offensive juggernaut lately as well. Cleveland has put up 115 or more points in their last three games. With those kinds of offensive numbers it's no surprise both teams have gone OVER in five straight games.

You want to take the OVER when one team went OVER by 18 in their previous game and they are taking on an opponent that went OVER by 24 in their last game. This situation is 355-241 (59.6%) since 1996. If the total for the current game is over 200 then that number jumped to 147-90 (62%).

This is one of the highest totals set so far this season and when the total is set above 212, the OVER has gone 12-4. Both of these teams give up over 100 ppg and with both offenses clicking, this one should go over easy.

3* on Hawks -

New Orleans is in a tough spot here tonight. This is a team that was on a five game road tip before making a quick one game stop in New Orleans before heading to the road again for a three game swing. The road trip wasn't kind to the Hornets as they lost four straight, mainly due to a defense that allowed opponents to shoot 49.4% or better in each game. The Hornets did manage to beat the lowly Suns on Wednesday night, but that isn't impressive with how bad Phoenix is this year.

Atlanta got back on track Wednesday night with a double digit home win over the Memphis Grizzlies in which they shot 51.4%. Figuring how much tougher the Grizzlies defense is than the Hornets has been of late, I think they should easily be able to put points on the board here tonight.

Atlanta is a much better team at home than they are on the road, going 17-8 and winning by 3 ppg. This is their last home game before the All-Star break, and I think they are going to bring it in order to end the first half of their season on a good note. I'll lay the small number.

4* HEAVY HITTER on Washington Wizards +

The Nets roll into this game at 29-20 while the Wizards are only 13-35, but Washington has really buckled down against good teams this year, going 16-7 ATS versus teams with a winning record. Plus they are 15-5 ATS against teams who have won between 51%-60% of their games the last two years.

Washington has been a different team since getting John Wall back. The Wizards are 9-7 over their last 16 games after starting the year just 4-28 and the odds makers haven't really caught up to how much better this team is as evidenced by their 13-3 ATS record during that stretch. The Nets only beat the Wizards in Washington by two in one of Washington's last games before getting Wall back, and I don't think they are going to pick up another win tonight with him in the lineup.

Brooklyn likes to shoot the three, hoisting 22 shots per game behind the arc, but they only make 34.8% of those attempts while their opponents normally allow 35.4%. This plays right into the Wizards strength as they are 23-11 ATS this year against opponents who attempt 18 or more 3's per game this year. Mainly, it's because they have held opponents shooting 36% from deep to only hit 34.3% against them.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Denver Nuggets -

Denver's offense is clicking on all cylinders and I don't expect the Bulls to be able to keep up with the pace. The Nuggets have broken the 100 point barrier in eight straight games and haven't scored less than 97 since New Year's Day. Chicago on the other hand has scored more than 100 only three times in their last ten, while being held to under 90 four times. You want to take favorites that score 102+ ppg when playing a team scoring less than 98 ppg after they have put up 110 or more in three straight games. These teams are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Nuggets enjoy one of the best home court advantages in the NBA, and they have continued that success this year by going 21-3 SU and 16-8 ATS. They are scoring 108.4 ppg while giving up 99.3 in Denver. Their main weakness is allowing opponents to shoot and make a lot of three point attempts, but that is definitely not a strong suit of the Bulls, especially without Kirk Heinrich.

Denver is rolling and has the matchup advantage so I'll take the Nuggets tonight.

3* on Utah Jazz -

The Utah Jazz are one of the best home court advantage teams in the NBA and I don't think they are laying enough points to the Bucks here tonight. The Jazz are coming off a win at home against the Kings on Monday night, but they didn't manage to cover the 8.5 point spread. That puts them in bounce back mode where Utah is 21-10 ATS at home after failing to cover in their last game.

Milwaukee is coming off a high scoring 112-104 loss at Denver last night. It was the fourth straight game the Bucks have dropped at the pay window, but it didn't really come as a surprise since they are 22-42 ATS in non-conference games the last three seasons. The no rest really seems to affect Milwaukee too as the Bucks are 10-23 ATS when playing on back-to-back days the last two years.

Milwaukee is just 20-33 ATS when playing a team with a winning record but that number drops further to 1-12 ATS when playing a team with a winning record during the 2nd half of the last two seasons. I think Utah gets out in front early and pulls away tonight.

5* TOTAL NO BRAINER on Mavs/Blazers UNDER

We are getting some value in this line tonight because Dallas has been so bad defensively on the year, giving up 103.1 ppg. They just gave up 112 points in a 21 point loss to Oklahoma City, but teams like Dallas normally buckle down on that end of the floor after a bad loss. You want to play on teams that are giving up 103+ ppg on the season after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. These teams go UNDER at a pace of 223-145 (60.6%) since 1996.

Dallas is actually allowing 4 ppg less at home than they do on the road, and their 101 ppg in Dallas is a little inflated from playing the likes of Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver, and Houston in a good portion of those games. Portland isn't going to keep pace with those teams when they only score 94.1 ppg on the road for the season.

These two teams have met twice this season and this is the highest total yet. Last time they faced each other Dallas shot 50% and 53.5% from behind the arc, both teams shot 78.3% or better from the line, and they only managed to score 210 points. In the first meeting Dallas shot 61.5% from the floor and 50% from the 3-point line and scored 114. I don't think you can expect out of this world shooting numbers a third time in a row.

3* on Oklahoma City Thunder -

Golden State is impressive this year with a 30-18 record but two things stand out to me. The first is that they are only outscoring opponents by one point per game, so that record seems a little inflated. The second is that this team is a lot better at home then they are on the road. Sure, the Warriors might be 14-12 as the visitor, but they are getting outscored by 2.2 ppg in those games.

Oklahoma City is a dominant team that isn't afraid to blow people out. They are scoring 108 ppg at home and giving up just 95.8 ppg for a 12.2 ppg margin. They shoot well from the floor and behind the arc, they get to the line, and shoot a high rate there. Plus, this team is in a revenge spot since they lost at Golden State back on 1/23 by five points. In that game the Thunder were coming off a back-to-back with the Clippers, now they are at home and the Warriors are coming off a back-to-back. I don't think the line has been adjusted enough, going from Thunder -1 to -10.

You want to take favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points when they are outscoring opponents by 7+ ppg after they have led the last three games by five or more at half when they are playing a team with a margin of +/-3. These teams are 70-34 67% ATS since 1996.

4* NBA HEAVY HITTER on Detroit Pistons -

Brookyn is coming off a tough game last night in which they lost to the LA Lakers sans Dwight Howard. Now they must travel from Brooklyn over to Detroit on back-to-back nights to take on the Pistons. Detroit also lost to the Lakers recently without Howard, but it was by a single point.

I like how these two teams matchup. The Nets might be a good team at 28-19 while Detroit is only 18-31, but Brooklyn wins by going to the free throw line where they make 75% of their foul shots and attempt two more per game than their opponents normally allow. However, Detroit doesn't foul that much and Brooklyn is 30-43 ATS against teams who are called for 21 fouls or less the last two seasons.

The Nets only shoot 43.7% away from home yet they allow 48.4%. Detroit is shooting 47% on their home floor and allowing 43.7%. Since the Pistons are 16-5 ATS against teams allowing shooting percentages of 46% or more the last two seasons I think they can exploit this advantage.

The Pistons are coming off a disappointing double digit loss at New York, but Detroit is 57-38 ATS after failing to cover the spread the last three years. I think they will bounce back again here tonight.

3* on Cleveland Cavs -

The last time these two teams played Cleveland jumped out to a commanding 62-48 lead at half, only to almost let it slip away. The Cavs still came away with a two point win in Charlotte and I think how they played early was a sign on who has the most talent. I also like how these teams matchup. Cleveland allows opponents to shoot 37.6% from behind the 3-point arc, but Charlotte doesn't shoot a lot of threes, averaging four less per game than their opponents normally allow. On the other hand, Charlotte allows 38.8% 3-point shooting and for their opponents to take 4 more per game than usual. That's a big disadvantage and a big reason why this team is 12-22 ATS against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point attempts this season.

The Cavs might allow their opponents to shoot at a high rate too, but the Bobcats 3-15 ATS against teams that allow opponents to hit more than 46% the last two years.

Charlotte played well the last time out, losing by five points to the Heat in Miami and covering the 14 point spread, but this team has some glaring problems. They have allowed their last three opponents to all shoot over 50% from the floor and they have done a terrible job on the glass.

The previous matchup and recent play by the Bobcats actually sets us up for a nice little system. You want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a straight up loss v. an opponent as a favorite, off a game in which the team covered but lost. This situation is 99-50 (66.4%) ATS since 1996.

4* HEAVY HITTER on Atlanta Hawks +

I think we are getting a little bit of value with the Hawks here tonight. One reason is due to their ugly loss yet again to Chicago. Atlanta scored only 76 points and lost by 17 at home, but they have had a couple of days off to work on areas of concern and prepare for Indiana.

The Pacers on the other hand are coming off a few big wins. They beat Detroit at home by 19 points, then the Heat by 13. Last night they hosted the same Chicago Bulls the Hawks just got embarrassed by and won by 10 points. Indiana has now covered four straight and the public is going to be jumping on their bandwagon tonight against a Hawks team that hasn't covered in two straight.

However, with the Pacers are playing their fourth home game in a row Frank Vogel is just 8-24 ATS after playing two straight home games and he is 11-25 ATS after covering two or more in a row as the coach of Indiana.

How these teams have played recently also fits a nice little trend. You want to play against home teams off two straight double digit wins playing an opponent coming off a game in which they scored 85 points or less. Fading these teams would have gone 36-14 (72%) over the last five years.

4* on the Kings/Jazz UNDER

This total has been set too high tonight. Sacramento is in a serious offensive funk right now. The Kings have scored 81 points or less in each of their last three games and haven't topped the century mark in seven straight outings.

Utah hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either. Utah has scored 100 points or less in five of their last seven and are averaging just 96.6 ppg over their last five.

The UNDER is 11-4 in Utah's last 15 home games vs a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 12-3 in the Kings last 15 games following a game where they allowed 110 points or more.

3* on Charlotte Bobcats + over Miami Heat

The Bobcats are showing some solid value as a double-digit underdog against Miami tonight. The Heat are in a pretty big letdown spot. Miami is playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and their third game in four days. Hard to see them giving max effort on either side of the ball when they know they can win this game without really trying.

While Miami won't be taking this game seriously, the Bobcats will be motivated to play well against the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference. Look for Charlotte to be the more aggressive team and keep this game much closer than expected.

This play is backed by a proven system. Favorites of 10+ points who are strong offensive teams, scoring 99+ pp, after a game in which they allowed 85 points or less, are just 96-151 ATS since 1996!

3* on Washington Wizards + over the LA Clippers

Los Angeles is really struggling without Chris Paul. They have lost six of eight, including a 25-pt loss at Toronto Friday. The Clippers followed that up with a 104-106 loss at Boston yesterday. Now they must go to Washington on no rest and take on a much-improved Wizards team.

Washington comes in having lost four straight, but they did manage to cover the spread in their most recent defeat at San Antonio. The Wizards are a dominant 11-3 ATS over their last 14 games.

Not only are the Clippers in a bad spot playing with no rest and without their star, but they just got done playing a very up-tempo game yesterday against the Celtics. Los Angeles is a miserable 4-14 ATS in road games after a road game where both teams scored a 100 or more points during the last 3 seasons.

The other key here is that the Wizards have been playing much better at home. Washington is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record.

3* HEAVY HITTER on LA Clippers -

Two teams that are dealing with injuries to their star point guards face off early on Sunday, and I like the Clippers to come out on top. LA was whooped last time out against Toronto by 25 points, and I think that got their attention back to focus on finishing this eight game road trip on a positive note.

Boston has won three in a row since losing Rondo for the season, but after the big win last Sunday over Miami the Celtics beat up on the Kings and the Magic, not two teams I'm impressed with them beating.

LA destroyed Boston at home back on December 27th, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Celtics will get their revenge. You want to play against home teams off a 20 point loss the last time the two teams met when their opponent is coming off a loss in their last game. This situation is 120-70 (63.2%) since 1996.

You also want to fade home teams off two straight double digit wins against an opponent coming off a game in which they scored less than 85 points. This situation is 36-12 (75%) the last five seasons.

You wan tot take teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ ppg when they are coming off a 15+ point loss. These teams are 115-70 (62.2%) the following game.

I'll lay the small number as I think LA picks up the win in Boston.

4* Blazers/Jazz UNDER

Hard not to like the Jazz and Blazers to go UNDER again tonight with the total just slightly lower than last night's. Portland and Utah played a very low scoring game in which the Jazz won 86-77 on their home floor. Now they travel up to Portland for a quick rubber match, and there isn't time to make offensive adjustments to change anything.

Portland shot just 36.7% from the floor while the Jazz only managed 43.2%. Utah was just 4-for-15 from behind the 3-point arc while the Blazers were 7-for-20. Portland managed just one quarter of more than 20 points, while the Jazz only managed 13 points in the final frame.

With two teams that are fighting for playoff spots against each other, I think the intensity will be there tonight and we are in for another low scoring affair.

5* Total NO BRAINER on Timberwolves/Hornets OVER

Minnesota has been playing some high scoring games lately. Both them and their opponents have scored 100+ in three of the last four games, including lats night's 100-111 loss to the LA Lakers. Minnesota is typically a low scoring team, but obviously they are pushing the tempo a little bit here recently. Plus, the Wolves are 13-3 OVER when playing a team with a losing record this year.

New Orleans has now allowed 100 or more points in seven of their last eight games after last night's 98-113 loss to Denver. They are 15-7 OVER when the total is between 180-189.5 this season and 12-3 OVER when playing a team with a losing record.

These two teams have met twice already this year with final scores of 113-102 and 92-104, both well over today's total. I just can't see these two teams deciding today is the day they want to play defense, so I think you'll see another final score in the 190's or even higher.

A solid system supports our play that says to take the OVER when the total is between 180-189.5 and one tam is off a road loss by 10 points or more and playing their 3rd game in four nights. The OVER is 114-75 (60.3%) in this situation the last five years.

4* on Kings/Knicks UNDER

The Kings are scoring just 91.7 ppg on the road and they actually give up 1.5 ppg less away from home too. The Knicks are a good defensive team that allows just 95.4 ppg at the Garden. Sacramento hasn't scored more than 96 points since back on January 21st and is doing off back-to-back 81 and 80 point performances.

The Knicks stopped the Milwaukee offense dead in it's tracks last night, giving up just 86 points on 39.8% shooting to the Bucks. New York has now held seven of their last eight opponents to 97 or less points.

You want to take the UNDER when the total is between 200-209.5 when a team is revering a loss as a favorite and that team has won 60% or more of their games on the season. The UNDER is 193-128 (60.1%) in this situation since 1996. You also want to take the UNDER in non-conference games when a team went under the total by 24 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 58-19 (75.3%) the last five years in this situation.

5* EASTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -

The Bulls are expected to be without Carlos Boozer today due to a hamstring injury, Kirk Hinrich to an arm injury, and Joakim Noah due to plant fascilitis. The injuries to those two forced Deng and Gibson to play all 48 minutes last night plus Robison and Butler both logged 40+. Now the Bulls have to fly down to Atlanta to face the Hawks on no rest and when you are banged up and playing on no rest that is a recipe for disaster.

You think Atlanta isn't going to be up for this game? The Hawks were embarrassed by the Bulls last time these two teams faced each other on January 14th. The Hawks scored only 58 points and lost by 39 points. This team has played a lot better since then and has won four of their last five games, the only loss was by two points in New York v. the Knicks.

I don't think Atlanta is going to take their foot off the gas tonight. This team will go all out for 48 minutes trying to embarrass Chicago like what happened to them last time. With Chicago so short-handed, this one has blowout written all over it.

3* on Hornets/Nuggets OVER

There is some solid value with this line here tonight. New Orleans is averaging 93.6 ppg and only giving up 97.4, but if you look at their road splits those numbers jump up to 96.4 and 99.3. Not only that but this team has given up 100 or more points in six of their last seven games.

Now they take on one of the best scoring teams in the league, especially at home where the Nuggets are putting up 108 ppg on 47.5% shooting. Since New Orleans allows 46.7% from the floor that's not good news for them. Denver has scored 102 or more points in six straight games and Indiana was the team they put up 102 against, a lot better defense than they will face tonight. This one is going to be high scoring so take the OVER.

5* NBA NO DOUBT ATS ROUT on Washington +6.5

I'll take the upstart Wizards tonight taking on a Memphis team in disarray. The Grizzlies had to get under the salary cap so traded Rudy Gay to Toronto. This team looked great at the start of the season and hopes were high they could make a serious playoff push. Then the trade rumors began and finally concluded with Gay being shipped out of town. Last night the team played in Oklahoma City and was beat up by 17 points. Now, they have to travel home on short rest to take on Washington.

The Wizards are an under-valued team that recently won 10 straight games against the spread before back-to-back losses to the Kings and Sixers. Now it seems everyone is off their band wagon again and they are showing some value tonight. The Wizards are 7-5 over their last 12 games and it's no surprise why. John Wall returned 11 games ago and has provided this team a spark. He's average 6.5 assists per game and 14.1 ppg.

You have two teams heading in opposite directions here tonight. Ride the team on the way up as Memphis will continue to struggle. You don't ever mess with the chemistry of a contender, as the Grizzlies are going to learn the hard way.

5* NBA Pre-All Star TOTAL of the YEAR on Heat/Pacers UNDER

This should be a defensive battle tonight and I love the UNDER in a big way. Miami is coming off a 105-85 win at Brooklyn while the Pacers are coming off a 98-79 win over Detroit. Both teams played solid defense and I expect that to continue here tonight. Plus, that sets us up for a nice situation where you want to play the UNDER when a team is coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent of a blowout of 20 points or more. The UNDER is 202-132 (60.5%) in this situation since 1996. Where the total is 180-189.5 and a team that scores 99+ ppg is off a blowout win by 20 or more like Miami is, the UNDER is 105-57 (64.8%) since 1996.

When teams play hard it normally leads to lower scoring games. When do teams play their hardest? Against other good teams and when the national spotlight is on them. Tonight this game will be on ESPN and both teams clock in with good records, Miami is 29-13 and Indiana is 27-19. Both want to make a statement to their opponents. Miami wants to show Indiana they aren't in their league while the Pacers want to prove they are. When you get two good teams playing on Friday nights the UNDER is 149-99 (60.1%) the last five seasons.

The Pacers are allowing teams that score 97.3 ppg to put up only 86.7 ppg against them at home. Indiana is scoring only 91.8 ppg on the year against teams that allow 95 ppg. Miami on the other hand is way better at home than on the road. Away from South Beach this team is scoring 98.6 ppg against opponents scoring 97.7 but they are holding opponents to just under their season average.

These two teams met in Indiana back on January 8th and the final score was 87-77 Indiana. I think the Pacers are going to slow this game way down again, and both teams take defense seriously. Points will be at a premium tonight as this game stays way under the total.

5* Thursday Night Total of the Month on Warriors/Mavs UNDER

Dallas has scored 104 or more points in nine straight games now and with Golden State's history of high scoring games we have a lot of value in the UNDER here tonight. Dallas has gone OVER in five straight games while Golden State has gone OVER in four in a row. To see how much padding that gives us here tonight you only have to go back to the last time these two teams met, when the total was set at 200. Six points is quite a jump for a same-season rematch game, and it's too much.

Jackson has instilled a defensive philosophy into his young Warrior team. They are actually holding opponents to just 96.6 ppg at home this year, below their opponents average of 97.8 ppg. They are doing it by holding them to 42.1% from the floor and 30.9% from the 3-point line.

The Warriors are a team that haven't had a lot of national TV exposure over the past few years, and I think these players are going to relish the chance to shine on TNT tonight. They will bring an all-out intensity on the defensive end of the floor and keep this score low. Take the UNDER!

3* on Phoenix Suns +

Now that the Lakers have won three straight games everyone is jumping back on the wagon, but this is a tough spot for them tonight. All three of LA's win came at home, but now they must take to the road again where they are just 5-15 on the year.

Last night they played a feisty Hornets team at home and it took everything they had to hold off New Orleans and pick up the win. Now this old team has to take to the road on back-to-back nights and I think it's going to affect them more than oddsmakers think.

Phoenix isn't a very good team but at home they have been more than respectable in going 11-11. They lost their last two games fairly badly, but those two games were played outside the state of Arizona.

I like the Suns catching points against a sub. 500 team that is playing on no rest, especially when that team is older like the Lakers and might have more troubles with no rest than others.

3* on Utah Jazz -

I like the Jazz to bounce back tonight after their embarrassing loss to Houston the other night by 45 points. It was the worst home loss in franchise history and you can bet the team will be motivated to come out and wash that bad taste out of their mouths against the Hornets. Since Utah was on a six game home winning streak before that game and they have a very strong historical home court advantage I think that was an outlier more than the start of a trend.

New Orleans on the other hand has been playing well, but will come into this game off a back-to-back. Not only was that game hard fought, but it was against one of the league's marquee teams in the Lakers. New Orleans gave that game all they had and still came away with the loss. Now they have to continue their road trip in a hostile environment playing a team that is fighting for one of the last spots in the Western Conference playoff race.

I'll lay the number here as I think Utah wins by double digits.

5* NBA NO LIMIT on Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are out for some double revenge here tonight as Milwaukee has came into Chicago twice this year and pulled off the victory. You can bet Chicago is going to want to make a statement as to who the team to beat in the Central division is here tonight.

Milwaukee is off a win last night in Detroit and is coming back for a back-to-back on their home floor, while Chicago has had a night off since their easy win over Charlotte so the rest factor is also with the Bulls. The Bucks have been hot lately winning five of six and are now just 2.5 games behind Chicago in the Central division race. You can bet they have the Bulls full attention and tonight Chicago is going to want to win this one badly to show everyone this is their division.

A matchup advantage can be found at the free throw line, where Chicago is better than the league average at getting to the stripe and they hit 78% of their attempts. Milwaukee fouls more than most teams do so Chicago should get a chance at plenty of free ones here tonight. Take the Bulls as they pick up the win in Milwaukee.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Detroit Pistons -

The Bucks are on a bit of a roll in winning four of their last five and seven of ten since canning Scott Skiles, but I think they are in a bad spot here tonight. The Pistons have been playing pretty well lately themselves, covering four of their last five games and they have won their last two home games by 15 points each.

The Bucks are over-valued a little bit because they have a decent record at 23-19, but they are actually getting outscored by their opponents. Detroit on the other hand is 17-27 but is only getting outscored by one ppg so I think they are better than their wins and losses reflect.

Milwaukee has to take to the road tomorrow night and face the Chicago Bulls. Now that they have played themselves into the playoff picture I'm sure the players might be looking ahead against a tougher opponent and might just slip up tonight in Detroit. I'll back the home team.

3* VEGAS INSIDER on Cleveland Cavs +

Cleveland has been paying excellent basketball lately, winning three in a row as outright underdogs of four points or more. Now they are an underdog at home again versus a Golden State team that is playing their fourth game in five nights.

Golden State might appear to be a good road team with their 13-11 record and their win in Toronto last night, but this team is giving up 102.3 ppg away from home and only scoring 100.7. That's not the margin of a winning team, rather a losing one.

The Warriors are 54-81 ATS on the road after scoring 110 or more points and 78-107 ATS on the road after playing as a favorite since 1996. The Cavs keep their streak alive and pull off another upset win here at home.

4* NBA Total Dominator on Rockets/Jazz OVER

I think you are going to see a lot of points here tonight when the Utah Jazz host the Houston Rockets. Houston is putting up 104.4 ppg and allowing 102.9. Utah on the other hand is scoring 102.2 ppg at home and giving up 98.7 ppg overall.

The Rockets finally got their mojo back last game against the Brooklyn Nets in a 119-106 win with a posted total of just 200. Even though the Jazz went into overtime Saturday against the Pacers, that final was 114-110 after being tied at 98 after 48 minutes despite a total posted of just 183.

These two teams met back on December 1st and played to a final score of 124-116 and I can see something similar happening here tonight. With the way these two teams played last time out and the short amount of rest not allowing for practice time to shore things up on defense or for the teams to lose their shooting confidence, I'll take the OVER.

The Rockets are 15-7 OVER when playing a team with a winning record this season while Utah is 12-2 OVER revenging a loss where an opponent scored over 100 this year.

3* HIGH ROLLER on Sacramento Kings +

The oddsmakers are overvaluing the Washington Wizards tonight in this spot. The Wizards have won 10 straight games against the spread and five upset wins during that stretch. The Kings on the other hand have lost four straight both straight up and against the spread so are out of favor with oddsmakers and the public alike.

However, you want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after they have beat the spread by 18 or more total points in their last three games against opponents who were beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. This system is 24-7 (77.4%) the last five seasons.

Sacramento did beat Washington during their streak by one as a five point favorite, so they have had some recent success against this Wizards team. I think they keep it close again tonight and pick up the cover.