4* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Suns +

Phoenix comes into this game off a 40-point loss at the Clippers on Monday and have now lost 12 straight overall. As bad it looks for the Suns, I think they are showing great value here as a home dog against the Nets. Brooklyn is a mere 4-20 on the road this season and come in off a 104-112 loss at Portland on Tuesday. The Nets played well in that game, but keep in mind it was being televised on NBATV, so there was some incentive to show up. 

I don't see Brooklyn coming out with that same intensity against a Suns team that hasn't won since  late January. Not only am I expecting Phoenix to come out inspired off that embarrassing loss to LA, but they also desperately want to get interim head coach Earl Watson his first win. 

The Nets only won by 3-points at home back on 12/01 against the Suns and that was with Brooklyn shooting 48.8% from the field. Phoenix has the bigs inside with Chandler and Len to keep Lopez in check and that's really the one guy you need to be able to stop to keep Brooklyn's offense in check. 

Nets are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record, 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after covering last time out. Phoenix on the other hand is 8-1 ATS this season off a home loss by 15 or more points and have won these games by nearly 4.0 ppg. Take the points! 

4* NBA Sharp Money Vegas Insider on Grizzlies -

I was on the wrong end of a horrible bad beat Tuesday with the Lakers losing by just 7-points after going into the 4th quarter down 25 against the Bucks as a 8-point dog. That isn't going to keep me from fading Los Angeles in a similar spot against the Grizzlies. 

Memphis is flying under the radar right now, as no one is really taking this team seriously since they loss Marc Gasol to a season-ending injury. I believe it has the Grizzlies playing with a chip on their shoulder and that's especially going to be the case after an embarrassing 13-point loss at Toronto last time out. 

Memphis won 112-96 at home against the Lakers back on 12/27 and it could have been an even bigger blowout, as the Grizzlies shot 56.2% from the field, while holding the Lakers to just 38.1%. I just don't see LA putting up much of a fight in this one, as they find themselves playing their 3rd straight road game in a span of just 4 days. Keep in mind the Lakers are 5-28 on the road, getting outscored by 11.1 ppg on the season. 

Memphis is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Lay the points! 

5* NBA Hardwood No Brainer on Cavs -

The Cavaliers come into this game off an ugly 88-96 home loss to the Pistons as a 9-point favorite on Tuesday. It wasn't all that surprising to see Cleveland struggle in that game, as they really invested a lot the previous day in a 115-92 win at Oklahoma City. Regardless, it now has the Cavaliers poised for a huge bounce back performance at home against the Hornets. 

Not only is Cleveland going to be motivated after what took place against Detroit last time out, but they will also be out to make a statement against Charlotte, who defeated them 106-97 earlier this month. Last time the Hornets visited Cleveland, the Cavaliers cruised to a 129-90 blowout win as a 10-point favorite. I look for a very similar type of outcome in this one, as Charlotte is just 10-17 on the road. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are outrebounding opponents by 3+ rebounds/game are 152-101 (60%) ATS in the month of February since 1996. Lay the points! 

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Blazers UNDER

The Blazers come into this game having gone OVER the total in 4 straight games and have combined for 142 and 126 in their first two games back from the All-Star break. While the Nets went UNDER the total in their last game, the OVER has cashed in 7 of their last 9. The books have had no choice but to inflate this number, thus creating great value on the UNDER.  

This is a big letdown spot for Portland after demolishing the Warriors and holding on for a 4-point home win over a surging Utah team. I just don't see the focus being there against a Nets team they are favored against by double-digits. Brooklyn only averages 95.6 ppg on the road and have seen 15 of their 23 road games go UNDER the total. 

UNDER is 27-10-1 in the Blazers last 38 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 19-8 in the Nets last 27 as a dog of 10 or more and 14-4 in their last 18 road games off a home loss. We'll take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total ANNIHILATOR on Magic/76ers UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for tonight's contest between the Magic and 76ers and it's time to take advantage. These two teams played back on 1/20 and combined for just 183 points in a 96-87 76ers win at Orlando. Overall each of the last 7 and 11 of the last 12 meetings between these two teams have gone UNDER the posted total for this matchup. 

Keep in mind that Orlando only averages 97.7 ppg on the road, while Philadelphia is scoring just 96.2 ppg at home. Neither of these teams shoot well from the field. The Magic are connecting on just 44.8% of their field goal attempts and the 76ers are at just 43.5%. 

UNDER is 9-1 in the Magic's last 10 road games off a loss by 3-points or less, 13-3 in their last 16 against a team with a losing record and 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a team with a losing home record. UNDER is also 8-2 in the 76ers last 10 against a team with a losing record and 21-8 in their last 29 after allowing 60 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. We'll take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Bucks -

This is going to seem like a big number for Milwaukee to be laying at home against the Lakers, who have covered 6 of their last 7, but this is a horrible spot for Los Angeles. The Lakers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the previous two were at home against the Spurs and at Chicago.

Those are two teams worth getting up for and I just don't see LA coming out with any energy or motivation in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set against the Bucks. Milwaukee on the other hand is coming off a 117-109 upset win at Atlanta and I look for them to carry over that momentum at home, where they are a solid 15-9 on the season. 

Bucks are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game, 21-8 ATS in their last 28 after playing their last game as a road dog and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 when playing 3 games in 4 days. Bucks are also a dominant 14-3 ATS in their last 17 against a team that's won 25% or less of their games. Take Milwaukee! 

4* NBA No Doubt Bookie Blowout on Pistons -

We are getting some great value here on the Pistons at home against the Pelicans. Detroit has been a money-making machine at home when laying points, as they are 13-4 ATS on the season when listed as a home favorite. 

We can expect a max effort here from the Pistons after an ugly 86-98 loss at Washington in their first game back from the All-Star break. That defeat was Detroit's 4th straight loss overall and for a team that is fighting to make the playoffs, this is a game they desperately need to win. 

New Orleans won 121-114 at home against the 76ers on Friday, but this is not a team that is built to do a whole lot down the stretch. The Pelicans have had a difficult time playing well against the Eastern Conference, as they are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games. 

Pistons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after losing 4 of their last 5, winning by an average of 12.1 ppg and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Take Detroit! 

5* Cavs/Thunder NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder -

Oklahoma City comes into this game off a heartbreaking 98-101 home loss to the Pacers (I cashed my underdog GOM on Indiana +9 in that game). Now it has the Thunder in a prime bounce back spot at home against the surging Cavaliers, who have won 4 straight. That loss to the Pacers was only the 6th time all season OKC was defeated on their home floor, as they are 25-6. 

The Thunder are simply not getting the respect they deserve in this game, in large part due to the Cavaliers riding that 4-game winning streak and having won 9 of their last 11 overall. The key thing to keep in mind, is that all but 2 of those wins came at home, where Cleveland is 23-4. 

Cavaliers are just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 road games after playing their previous game at home and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games after scoring 105+ points in 3 straight games. Thunder are 36-19 ATS in their last 55 off a loss by 3 points or less and 27-8-1 ATS in their last 36 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Oklahoma City!

3* Warriors/Clippers Primetime Main Event on Warriors -

The Warriors were embarrassed last night in a 105-137 loss at Portland in their first game back from the All-Star break. The Clippers on the other hand returned from the All-Star break with a 105-86 blowout win at home over the Spurs (didn't have Leonard). I just don't see Golden State losing back-to-back games and the line is right for the picking on this one. 

Warriors are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 off a road loss by 10 or more points, while the Clippers are 33-53 ATS in their last 86 home games off a blowout win by 15 or more points.

Warriors are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against at team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread. Los Angeles is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games against a team with a winning road record and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win. Take Golden State! 

3* Spurs/Lakers NBA Over/Under No Brainer on OVER

San Antonio managed just 86 points in last night's ugly 19-point road loss to the Clippers. Regardless of who suits up for the Spurs tonight, I'm confident they are going to have zero problem exploiting the Lakers defense. LA is allowing 106.1 ppg on the season and have allowed 106+ in each of their last 3 meetings against the Spurs. 

The key here is that with the Spurs playing on no rest and the Lakers going to be highly motivated for this matchup at home, I expect LA to provide more than enough offensively to push this over the mark. The Lakers went into the break averaging 103.6 ppg over their last 5 and the Spurs are giving up an average of 99.5 ppg in their last 26 road games when they were listed as a road favorite in their previous contest. 

OVER is 18-4 in the Lakers last 22 when playing 6 or less games in 14 days and 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. OVER is also 3-0-1 in the Spurs last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 18-8 in their last 26 off a SU loss by more than 10 points.

Adding to this is a great system. The OVER is 20-6 (77%) when you have a teams playing on no rest against an opponent off 4 or more days rest (post All-Star break) with a total of 200 or more. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Vegas Insider Total of the Week on Nuggets/Kings UNDER

I believe the books have set the total too high for tonight's showdown between the Nuggets and Kings. While Sacramento comes in allowing a staggering 109.1 ppg on the season, they are better on that side of the ball at home (106.6 ppg). The Kings also have made it clear that they need to get better defensively and with how much this game means to their playoff chances, I expect all out effort on that side of the ball tonight. 

On the flip side of this, Denver is also perceived to be a bad defensive team, as they are giving up 103.4 ppg. However, the Nuggets went into the All-Star break really playing well on that side of the ball, as they allowed just 97.6 ppg over their last 5. This game has a little extra meaning for Denver, as head coach Michael Malone goes up against his former team. Keep in mind, Malone's a defensive guy and knows the strengths and weakness of a lot of the Kings players. 

UNDER is 13-4 in the Kings last 17 home games against teams who average 99+ ppg and 9-1 in their last 10 when playing 6 or less games in 14 days. UNDER is also 10-3 in the Nuggets last 13 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. 

Adding to this is a great system. The UNDER is 26-6 (81%) when you have a total of 210 or more with a road team off a win by 10 or more points against an opponent off 2 straight games with 215 or more combined points. Take the UNDER! 

3* Bulls/Raptors NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER 

The Bulls come into this contest off a 95-106 loss at Cleveland last night. It was the 8th straight game in which Chicago has allowed 100 or more points. With Jimmy Butler sidelined, I just don't see the Bulls defense being able to contain the Raptors in this one, especially after playing such a big game last night against division rival Cleveland. 

Toronto was averaging 104.4 ppg over their last 5 prior to the break and have scored 100+ points in 13 of their last 14 overall. I look for a very similar type of scoring output to what we saw when these two teams last met on 1/3, as they combined for 228 points. Keep in mind it was the 5th straight meeting between these two teams where they combined for 200 or more points. 

OVER is 15-6 in Toronto's 21 games this season against a team with a winning record and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. OVER is also 21-5 in the Bulls las t26 against the Atlantic division and 5-2 in their last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest.

Adding to this is a great system. The OVER is 20-6 (77%) when you have a teams playing on no rest against an opponent off 4 or more days rest (post All-Star break) with a total of 200 or more. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Underdog of the Month on Pacers +

The Pacers are showing exceptional value here as a near double-digit road dog against the Thunder. Indiana went into the All-Star break off an embarrassing 22-point loss at home to the Hornets and I look for them to come out extremely motivated in their first game back. Prior to that loss the Pacers had won 5 of 7. 

Oklahoma City has gone 14-2 in their last 16 games and I believe that has them way overvalued here. The Thunder could also have a hard time getting up for this contest, being it's the first game after the break and they have a much bigger home game on deck agains the Cavaliers Sunday. 

Indiana is a dominant 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a double-digit loss at home and 18-8 ATS in their last 27 against a team with a winning record. Thunder are just 10-24 ATS in their last 34 against teams who average 99+ points/game and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall. Take Indiana! 

3* Pistons/Wizards NBA Total Dominator on OVER

I'm expecting an offensive explosion tonight in Washington. The Wizards were able to hold the Jazz to just 89 points last night, but Utah is one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Detroit comes in averaging 101.8 ppg and will have a much easier time putting up points on Washington. Keep in mind the Wizards are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and are allowing 105.1 ppg on the season. 

Detroit isn't a great defensive team either, especially on the road, where they are giving up 102.6 ppg. I don't expect the Pistons defense to be in great form tonight, as they will be working in newly acquired Tobias Harris and dealing with the losses of some key contributors. It takes time playing together to build chemistry on defense and I just don't see them having much success on that side of the ball here. 

OVER is 13-4 in the Wizards last 17 after playing their previous game against a team from the Western Conference, 6-1 i their last 7 when playing on 0 days rest and 7-2 in Detroit's last 9 against the Eastern Conference. 

Adding to this is a great system. The OVER is 20-6 (77%) when you have a teams playing on no rest against an opponent off 4 or more days rest (post All-Star break) with a total of 200 or more. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Total Top Play on Jazz/Wizards UNDER

Both the Wizards and Jazz are fighting to make the playoffs in their respective conferences and I look for both teams to come out with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball after the long layoff with the All-Star break. At the same time, the long layoff will have both offenses struggling to find their rhythm in the first game back. 

Utah is the key for this one going under the total. The Jazz went into the All-Star break having won 7 of their last 8 and a big reason for that was their defense. Utah has held 8 of their last 10 opponents to 96 or fewer points and no team plays at a slower pace than the Jazz. Washington does allow 105.4 ppg, but are more than capable of slowing down a below-average Utah offense on their home floor. 

Both meetings last year between these two teams saw fewer than 180 points and 5 of the last 6 in the series have gone below the total posted for this game. Under is 26-12 in Utah's last 38 against terrible defensive teams that allow 103+ ppg and 21-9 in their last 30 against the Eastern Conference. Under is also 7-1 in the Wizards last 8 home games against a team with a losing record. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system. UNDER is 25-6 (81%) in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where you have a team that's won 8 or more their last 10 games, who has played 3 or fewer games in the last 10 days. Take the UNDER! 

5* Wizards/Bucks NBA Vegas Insider on Bucks -

Milwaukee comes into the final game before the All-Star break having gone just 2-7 in their last 9 games, but that has a lot to do with the schedule. Of the 7 losses, 6 came on the road, where the Bucks are just 7-24 on the season. 

Milwaukee defeated the Celtics 112-111 at home in their last game as a 4-point dog and are 5-1 in their last 6 home games overall with wins over Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, Orlando and Boston. The Wizards come in off a 111-108 win at New York, but are just 4-8 in their last 12. Washington has been especially bad on the defensive side of things of late, as they are allowing 111.6 ppg over their last 5. I don't see the defensive intensity getting turned up for a road game against the Bucks with the long layoff for the All-Star break on deck. 

Washington is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 off a win by 3 points or less and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off a road win scoring 110 or more points. The Bucks on the other hand are a dominant 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after losing at least 4 of their last 6 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference. Take Milwaukee! 

4* NBA Sharp Money Vegas Insider on Grizzlies -

Memphis is showing some great value here as the books have adjusted this line with the recent news that the Grizzlies will be without center Marc Gasol. Memphis is also showing value here due to the fact that they come in having lost 2 straight, while the Nets have won 2 of 3. 

The thing to keep in mind is that both of the losses the Grizzlies have suffered in their last 2 games have come in overtime. Prior to that this team had won 11 of 13. Their two-game skid is also the first time 6 weeks they dropped consecutive games. With this being the final game for Memphis prior to the All-Star break, I look for the Grizzlies to come out extremely motivated to get a win. 

While Memphis will want to finish strong going into the break, the Nets' players likely can't wait for the long layoff. I just don't see Brooklyn being able to match the intensity of the Grizzlies in this game and wouldn't be surprised if they threw in the towel early. 

Nets are just 13-26 ATS in their last 39 when they come in having won 2 of their last 3 games and are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 against a team with a winning record. The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference. Take Memphis! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Kings - 

There's been plenty of negative talk surrounding the Kings with the news that head coach George Karl was going to be fired, only to come out a few days later and say they are sticking with him. Sacramento is desperate for a win, as they have lost 4 straight and 8 of 9 overall. I look for an inspired effort here from the Kings against the 76ers, who beat them on their home floor back in late December. 

The 76ers have been playing better of late, but this is not a good spot for Philadelphia with the All-Star break on deck after this game. Not to mention the 76ers are coming off an emotional loss at home to the Clippers, where they blew a 19-point lead in a 92-98 overtime defeat. It's a similar spot to when they lost on a last second shot at home against the Warriors on 1/30 and came out in their next game and got destroyed by the Hawks 124-86. 

Road teams who are averaging 102+ ppg against an opponent that only averages between 92-98 ppg are 46-19 (71%) ATS after 42+ games and off a loss by 15 or more points. Take Sacramento! 

5* NBA No Limit TNT Total Top Play on Spurs/Heat UNDER 

The books have set the mark too high for this TNT showdown between the Heat and Spurs. These are two of the top defensive teams in the NBA. Miami comes in allowing just 95.3 ppg and rank 6th in defensive efficiency. The Spurs are giving up just 92.8 ppg and lead the league in defensive efficiency. 

San Antonio has held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 97 or less points, while the Heat have score 98 or fewer in each of their last 3. The fact that this game is being played in Miami is key, as that should allow the Heat to control the tempo and only the Jazz play at a slower pace than the Heat. Both meetings last year saw fewer than 184 points and each of the last 4 in the series have finished with 193 or less. 

UNDER is 21-9 in the Spurs last 30 road games after going over the total in their previous game and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 off a home win where they failed to cover as a favorite. UNDER is also 14-4 in Miami's 18 games this season when listed as an underdog and 7-0 in their last 7 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER! 

5* Bulls/Hornets NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bulls +

Chicago comes into this game having lost 2 straight and 4 of their last 5 overall, plus are not expected to have the services of All-Star Jimmy Butler. I believe oddsmakers have drastically inflated this line because of this and thus the Bulls are showing some great value here against the Hornets. Keep in mind that Chicago was a 3.5-point favorite earlier this season at Charlotte. As good as Butler is, he's not worth 9.5-points. 

Whenever a team is missing a key player like the Bulls will be tonight, that takes away from the focus and intensity of the other team. I just don't see the Hornets being as focused for this game as you would expect and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Chicago won this game outright. 

Road teams that have allowed 100+ points in 4 straight games against an opponent off a win by 6 or less are 49-30 (62%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. At the same time, Favorites off a win by 6 or less against an opponent off 3 straight games with a combined score of 205 or more points are just 22-50 (31%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Chicago! 

3* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Magic +

The Magic and Hawks will play a home-and-home set starting with today's game in Orlando, followed by tomorrow's game in Atlanta. Knowing that they are going to get the Magic at home in their next game and this being Super Bowl Sunday, I just don't see the Hawks being all that interested in this game. Orlando on the other hand is desperate for a win right now. 

The Magic have been playing better of late, but simply were outmatched against three of the top four teams in the west in the Spurs, Thunder and Clippers. Last time out  Orlando lost 93-107 at home to the Clippers as a 3.5-point dog, while the Hawks won 102-96 as a 5-point home favorite against the Pacers. The fact that the Magic are now an even smaller home dog, says a lot about what the books are expecting here, as the public will be all over the Hawks. 

Magic are a dominant 9-1 ATS this season after playing their previous game as a home underdog, while the Hawks are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 road games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who average 83 or more shots per game and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Orlando! 

4* Thunder/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on Thunder +

I like the value we are getting with the Thunder as near double-digit road dogs against the Warriors. While Golden State and San Antonio have been getting all the attention for their amazing starts to the season and rightfully so, the Thunder have quietly put together a great season. Oklahoma City is 38-13 and come in having won 12 of their last 13. 

I'm not saying the Thunder are going to pull off the outright upset and end the Warriors 40-game home winning streak, but I don't think it's out of the question. Oklahoma City has two of the best players in the game in Durant and Westbrook and a supporting cast that can matchup with whatever the Warriors throw at them. If there's one player that can give Curry some trouble, Westbrook is the guy and most importantly he's going to make Curry work on the defensive end. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing the Thunder. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who average 99 or more points/game against an opponent that has scored 105 or more in 5 straight games are 44-15 (75%) ATS since 1996 with a perfect 4-0 ATS record so far in the 2015-16 season. Take Oklahoma City! 

4* NBA Situational Vegas Insider on Rockets - 

I really like the value we are getting here with the Rockets as a relatively small home favorite against the Trail Blazers. While Portland lost 103-110 at home in their last game against the Raptors, that's not considered a bad loss given how Toronto has played. The Trail Blazers are still being overvalued due to previously having won 5 straight and 9 of their last 11. 

The big key here is that Portland just took advantage of a 7-game homestand and now hit the road for the first time since Jan. 18. I just don't see the Trail Blazers bringing the intensity needed to keep this game close, especially when they know in the back of their minds that they get the Rockets at home on Wednesday. 

Portland is also not a great road team, especially when going up against a above average team. The Trail Blazers are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Rockets on the other hand are are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games off a road win, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against at team with a losing road record and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Houston! 

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavs - 

This may seem like a big number for Cleveland to be laying against a Celtics team that has won 7 of their last 8, but I don't see Boston being able to contain the Cavaliers in this one. The Celtics recent surge has primarily come against bad teams, as 6 of the 7 wins came against the 76ers, Wizards, Nuggets, Magic, Knicks and Pistons. 

Cleveland isn't going to take this game lightly after an embarrassing 97-106 loss at Charlotte with the Hornets playing without Kemba Walker. Returning home should do the trick for the Cavs, where they are a dominant 19-3 at home this season and off a 14-point win against the Spurs in their last home game. Cleveland also won by 12 at Boston earlier this season. 

Celtics are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Cavaliers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 against team with a winning record and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games after a contest where they were out rebounded by 20 or more. Take Cleveland! 

3* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Clippers -

This is a big bounce back game for Los Angeles after a lackluster performance at home in a 102-108 loss to the Timberwolves as a 10.5-point favorite. That defeat didn't sit well with leader Chris Paul and you can be assured the Clippers will come out with a different mentality against the Magic tonight. 

Orlando on the other hand is coming into this game off a crushing 114-117 loss at Oklahoma City, where they failed to score over the final 2 minutes and 31 seconds. Those kind of defeats are not easy to bounce back from and the Magic haven't exactly been playing well of late. Orlando is just 1-10 in their last 11 and 2-15 in their last 17. 

Clippers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, winning on average by 8.4 ppg. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 against the Eastern Conference and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after a game they failed to cover the spread. Magic are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100+ and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 following a SU loss. Take Los Angeles! 

4* NBA Big Money Revenge Game of the Week on Hawks - 

I really like the value we are getting Atlanta in this spot. The Hawks are going to come into this game with a chip on their shoulder after dropping each of the first two meetings against the Pacers this season, including a 19-point defeat in the most recent matchup on 1/28. Key thing to keep in mind is both of those games were on the road in Indiana. Atlanta is a much stronger team at home, where they are 16-8 and they swept their two home games against the Pacers last year, winning by an average of 14.5 ppg. 

Indiana comes into this game off a 14-point win at Brooklyn, but that's nothing to get excited about. The Pacers have been struggling for about a month now, as they are just 4-7 in their last 11 games. With Paul George struggling to find his shot and the Hawks having shot 52% or better in each of their last two, I just don't see Indiana putting up much of a fight in this one. 

Pacers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win by more than 10-points and 11-24 in their last 35 road games in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 years. Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against at team with a losing road record and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Take Atlanta! 

4* Raptors/Blazers NBA ATS No Brainer on Raptors + 

I believe we are seeing great value here with Toronto at basically a pick'em on the road against the Trail Blazers. Portland is getting a lot of respect from the books due to having won 5 straight, but it's not as impressive as it looks. All 5 wins came at home against teams with a winning record. When actually facing a quality opponent, the Blazers have struggled, going just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games.

Toronto suffered an ugly loss at Denver on Monday, but came back the next night with a 104-97 win at Phoenix and are now 12-1 over their last 13 games. It's not secret that the Raptors are led by their backcourt duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan and I look for these two to take this matchup personal with all the talk about how good the Blazers backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum is.

Portland is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when they come in having covered 4 of their last 5 games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off 5 or more consecutive wins and 1-3 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less. Take Toronto!

4* Pistons/Celtics NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Pistons + 

This is going to seem like a small number for the Pistons to be laying at home against the Celtics, who have won 6 of their last 7, but Detroit is catching Boston in a great spot. The Celtics will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 6th game overall in their last 10. Boston is also in a huge lookahead spot with a showdown at Cleveland on deck. 

Detroit is a team that when they come to play are more than capable of winning on the road against a team like Boston. In fact, they already have a road win over the Celtics, defeating them 99-94 back on 1/6. Detroit has taken 2 of 3 in the series overall this season. 

Pistons are 28-14 ATS in their last 42 when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3 and a dominant 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after playing their previous game as a road favorite. Boston on the other hand is a miserable 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games against strong rebounding teams who are outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game. Take Detroit! 

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on 76ers +

The public will be all over Atlanta in this one, as the Hawks have destroyed the 76ers in their two previous meetings this series, winning 127-106 at home on 12/16 and 126-98 at Philadelphia on 1/7. However, I don't think it's going to be as easy this time around. Atlanta is not playing great basketball at the moment, as they are just 2-5 in their last 7 and just 1-4 in their last 5 on the road. 

Philadelphia is a miserable 7-41 overall, but have been playing much better of late. The 76ers are a much more respectable 6-11 over their last 17 and will be playing with a ton of confidence after a near upset at home of the Warriors last time out (lost 105-108 on last second shot). Philadelphia will also have fresh legs off a 2-day break, while Atlanta will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 nights. 

Hawks are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 after playing their previous game against the Western Conference and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a losing home record. The 76ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 off a cover where the team lost outright as an underdog. Take Philadelphia! 

4* Celtics/Knicks NBA ATS No Brainer on Celtics -

The Celtics are showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Knicks. Boston had their 5-game winning streak snapped in Sunday's 114-119 loss at Orlando, but that was a tough spot for the Celtics. Boston had just defeated the Magic in their previous game at home by 19-points and simply weren't able to match the intensity of Orlando in the rematch. I look for that loss to serve as a wake-up call and for the Celtics to return back to the form that saw them win 5 straight. 

New York on the other hand hasn't been playing well. The Knicks have lost 4 of 5 and are coming off a ugly 95-116 loss at home to the Warriors last time out. New York did beat Boston at home 120-114 in the most recent matchup back on 1/12, but that's actually a positive. 

The Celtics are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games revenging a loss to an opponent, where they allowed 100 or more points and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games revenging a road loss to an opponent. 

We also find a strong system in play, as Road favorites revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite and off a loss as a favorite in their last game are 77-40 (66%) ATS since 1996. Take Boston! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Nuggets OVER

I look for the Nuggets and Raptors to cruise past the total set for this matchup. These two teams have a history of high-scoring games, as 6 of the last 7 in the series have eclipsed the mark set by the oddsmakers. That includes a 106-105 game earlier this season that had a total of just 189.5. 

The Raptors come into this game clicking on all cylinders offensively. Toronto has scored 100+ points in 9 straight games and should have no problem extending that streak to 10 against a Nuggets team that has allowed 100+ points in 8 straight games. It's also important to note that Denver is playing very well on the offensive end right now as well, the Nuggets have scored 100+ in 8 straight. Toronto has a good defense, but just allowed 107 in their last game against the Pistons and I don't see the defensive intensity being there with this being their first road game after a lengthy 7-game homestand. 

OVER is 10-3 in the Raptors last 13 against an opponent that scored 100 or more in their last game, 23-8 in their last 31 road games after a combined score of 205+ in their last game and 7-1 in their last 8 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 6-1 in the Nuggets last 7 home games, 10-1 in their last 11 home games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the OVER! 

5* Mavs/Hawks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER 

I'm expecting a very slow pace and strong defensive intensity from both teams in this one. Dallas isn't going to be looking to run, as they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 5th in the last 7 days overall. However, the Mavericks do figure to come to play, as they will be out for revenge from a 95-98 loss at home earlier this season. 

Atlanta will also be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after playing yesterday in Miami. This will also be the Hawks 4th game in 6 days. Atlanta has lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall, so we have every reason to expect them to show up with a lot of intensity defensively to get a win. Note that during this 6-game stretch only 1 of those came at home and that was an extremely low-scoring game against the Clippers (83-85). 

It's also important to note that both offenses come in struggling right now. The Mavericks have scored 92 or fewer in 3 of their last 4, while the Hawks have scored 95 or fewer in 5 of their last 6. Dallas has held each of their last 2 opponents under 80 points and Atlanta has allowed 86 or less in each of their last 3 home games. 

UNDER is 25-14 in the Mavericks last 29 after 2 or more consecutive games that finished under the total, 5-1 in their last 6 when their starters combine for 160 or more minutes the previous day and 8-2 in their last 10 road games. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Hawks last 5 against the Western Conference, 8-3 in their last 11 against a team with a winning record and 23-9 in their last 32 home games off 2 straight road losses by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Warriors -

Golden State nearly suffered an unthinkable loss yesterday against the 76ers, as they blew a 24-point lead and needed a last second 3-pointer to secure the win an avoid overtime. That near collapse will certainly get the attention of the Warriors and I look for them to come out an put a beating on the Knicks. 

Regardless of how good the Knicks are or aren't playing, opposing teams really get excited about the opportunity to play in Madison Square Garden. That's especially the case for Western Conference teams, who only get to play here once a season. Anytime there's been reason for Golden State to get excited about playing, they have dominated the opposition. Last year the Warriors won by 14 at New York and the previous year they won by 23. 

While this could be considered a bad spot with the Warriors playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, I don't see it being a problem, as they had 2 days off before their game against the 76ers and will have more 2 days off after this contest. 

Warriors are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread, 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 when playing on no rest and 13-5 in their last 18 road games with a total set at 210 or more. Take Golden State! 

4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Magic +

This is a great situational spot to back Orlando at home as an underdog. These two teams just played 2 days ago in Boston with the Celtics winning going away 113-94. It's going to be hard for Boston to get excited about playing a team they just beat by 19-points, while Orlando is going to treat this like a must-win situation. 

While Orlando has struggled of late, they have played their best basketball at home, where they are 12-10 on the season, compared to 8-15 on the road. The Celtics have had their struggles of late playing up to their potential against teams who play well at home, as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record 

The Magic on the other hand are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs a team with a winning road record and despite the loss to Boston on Friday are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Atlantic. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Celtics. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 , who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a marginal losing team are just 9-31 (22%) ATS since 1996. Take Boston!

3* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pacers - 

This may seem like a big number for Indiana to be laying at home against the Nuggets, but I'm expecting to see the Pacers dominate this one from start to finish. Indiana was just 1-6 over their last 7 before coming out with a dominant performance in a 111-92 win at home against the Hawks on Thursday. I don't see Indiana letting their foot off the gas, especially against a Denver team they recently lost to on the road 126-129. 

This is also a bad spot for Denver, who is not a good road team (9-14). The Nuggets will be playing their 3rd straight away from home in the last 4 days. Denver has also been awful defensively of late, allowing 111.7 ppg over their last 7. Another huge incentive here for the Pacers is they haven't won back-to-back games since early January. I just don't see Indiana overlooking the Nuggets and at the same time this is a game I think Denver isn't going to be all that interested in coming off a win and having just beat the Pacers recently. 

Adding to this is a strong system. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are allowing 103+ ppg against an opponent that just scored 110 or more are just 43-78 (35%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Pacers are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-pointers/game and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4. Take Indiana! 

5* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Rockets/Thunder UNDER 

Due to this matchup featuring two of the more explosive offensive teams and this game being televised on NBATV, I believe we are seeing a drastically inflated total. Oklahoma City is coming off two high-scoring games against the Knicks (128-122) and Timberwolves (126-123), both of which came on the road.

Not a huge surprise to see the Thunder not bring the defensive intensity against below average opponents. They won't have any problem getting motivated against the Rockets on their home floor, as they have lost each of the last 5 meetings in the series. One thing to keep in mind with Oklahoma City is they play much better defensively at home, where they are only giving up 98.0 ppg. 

I'm also expecting a strong defensive effort here from the Rockets, as they are going to be motivated coming off an embarrassing 99-130 loss at San Antonio. The UNDER is 7-3 in the Rockets last 10 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 9-3 in their last 12 against a team with a winning record. 

UNDER is also 15-3 in the Thunder's last 18 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, 9-1 in their last 10 home games after playing their last game as a road favorite and 9-1 in their last 10 home games off a road win where they scored 110 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Magic +

Orlando is showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Celtics. The Magic have really struggled of late and are just 1-11 in the month of January, but could easily have a much better record, as they have struggled to hold on to leads and close out games late. Each of their last 3 losses have come by 7-points or less and they had a 16-point lead last time out against the Bucks. 

Boston comes in having won 4 straight, which is certainly playing into this inflated line. Last time out they failed to cover as a 9.5-point dog against the Nuggets, winning just 111-103. The big key here is the Magic figure to be the more motivated team in this one. Orlando is desperate for a win and comes in on 2 days of rest. Boston on the other hand will be playing their 4th game in the last 6 days and could find it hard to get up for the Magic, knowing they get them again on the road Sunday. 

It's also worth noting that Orland has won 3 of the last 4 in the series and the lone loss came by just 7-points in a game they led by 10-points at the half. Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after playing 2 straight games as an underdog, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against the Atlantic and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on Friday. Boston is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with road winning percentage of 40% or less. Take Orlando! 

5* Hawks/Pacers NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Pacers - 

While the Pacers come into this game having lost 3 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall, this team showed signs of turning the corner with Tuesday's heartbreaking 89-91 home loss to the Clippers. I believe we are seeing Indiana greatly undervalued here because of their recent poor stretch. 

Atlanta is also coming off a crushing loss at home to the Clippers, as they lost 83-85 last night to LA. Having to play on no rest is going to be a tall task for the Hawks to overcome against a highly motivated Pacers team. Keep in mind that Atlanta only had 1-day off prior to their game against the Clippers, which followed a 4-game west coast road trip.

It's also important to note that the Pacers already won 93-87 at home against Atlanta this season and despite losing their last 2 at home are a strong 13-7 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana also seems to play their best against the best, as the Pacers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games against a team with a winning record. They are also 19-9 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite of 6 or less and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 when playing only their 2nd game in a span of 5 days. Take Indiana! 

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Jazz -  

This might seem like a big number for the Hornets to be catching against the Jazz, as Charlotte comes in having won 3 straight, while Utah has lost 3 of 4, including a 92-95 home loss to Detroit as a 3-point favorite last time out. There's good reason for the Jazz to be favored here by this number and the books are making it clear they think Utah has the advantage in this one.

One of the key factors that the Jazz have in their favor is revenge, as they have not forgot about a 119-124 double-overtime loss at Charlotte last week (1/18). Utah is also going to be motivated off that loss to the Pistons at home, as this is a team that plays it's best basketball on their home floor.

Another big factor here is the Hornets have not had much luck in Salt Lake City. They are 5-20 all-time and have lost 8 straight at Utah in the series. Making matters even worse for Charlotte is this a prime letdown spot after Monday's double-overtime win against the Kings. This will be their 4th road game in a 5-game stretch over an 8-day stretch. I just don't see the Hornets being able to match the intensity of the Jazz in this one.

Jazz are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points and 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 at home against the Hornets. Charlotte is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs a team with a losing record and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 after scoring more than 100 points. Take Utah!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Hawks - 

Atlanta is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Clippers. The Hawks closed out their 4-game road trip with a convincing 119-105 win at Denver and could easily be riding a 6-game winning streak, as they are 4-2 in their last 6 with 2 losses by a combined 6 points. 

The Hawks are a strong 15-7 at home and this will be taken as an opportunity to make a statement against the surging the Clippers. The big key here is that this is an awful spot for Los Angeles. The Clippers will not only be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 5th straight game on the road in the last 7 days. 

Another key factor is I think emotionally the Clippers are going to be drained, as they had to deal with a lot of outside drama with the Blake Griffin deal and came out playing inspired last night against the Pacers. Simply put, Atlanta is going to be the much more motivated team in this one. 

Hawks are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 when they come in having failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Clippers on the other hand are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Atlanta! 

4* Kings/Blazers NBA ATS No Brainer on Blazers - 

This may seem like a big number for the Blazers to be laying against the Kings, but it's for good reason. Sacramento is in an awful scheduling spot here. Not only are the Kings playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road after a double-overtime game last night, but this will be their 5th game overall in the last 7 days. 

I just don't see the Kings having the energy here to keep up with the Blazers. Rudy Gay, who scored 20 points last night, isn't expected to play tonight, while both DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rando both logged over 40 minutes against the Hornets. It's also worth noting that in back-to-back games this season the Kings are just 2-9. 

Portland on the other hand comes in off 2 days of rest and will be looking to push the pace to wear down Sacramento and take them out of this game early. The Trail Blazers are also playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. Portland comes in off a 121-103 home win over the Lakers and have won 5 of their last 7. 

Kings are 20-40 ATS in their last 60 road games off a loss by 3-points or less and 15-30 revenging a same season loss to an opponent (lost 94-98 at home to Blazers on 12/27). Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when playing with 2 days of rest. Take Portland! 

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Hawks - 

This is a great spot to jump on Atlanta and fade the Nuggets. Denver is getting a lot of love from the books due to covering the spread in each of their last 4 games and 6 of their last 7 overall, but will be outclassed against the Hawks. Atlanta will be all business after an embarrassing 95-98 loss at Phoenix as a 10-point favorite, which followed a 88-91 defeat at Sacramento. The Hawks haven't lost 3 straight since the middle of December and I don't see that streak coming to an end here. 

The Nuggets come into this game off a 104-101 win at home against the Pistons, which they were fortunate to win after trailing by 9 at the half. Fading teams in this spot has been a profitable move over the years, as home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a close home win by 3 or less are just 12-37 (24%) ATS in non-conference games since 1996. 

The Hawks have also been a strong team to back when coming off a game where they lost outright as a favorite. They are 19-9 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons and have won these games by an average of 7.4 ppg. It's also worth noting that the Nuggets are just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 home games after allowing 100 or more points in 2 straight games. Take Atlanta! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Grizzlies UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle tonight between the Magic and the Grizzlies. Both of these teams are going to be highly motivated for a win. Memphis comes in off a 101-106 upset loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite, snapping a 4-game winning streak. Orlando lost 116-120 in overtime at home against the Hornets in their last game, where they gave up a 15-point lead with 7:15 left in the 4th quarter. 

Not only will the defensive intensity be there for both teams, but we have two of the slower paced and least efficient offensive teams in the NBA. Memphis ranks 27th in pace and 25th in offensive efficiency, while Orlando is 22nd in pace and 26th in offensive efficiency. I just don't see there being enough offensive possessions for this one to eclipse the mark set. 

UNDER is a perfect 9-0 in the Grizzlies last 9 home games in the 2nd half of the season against a team with a losing record. It's also 9-3 in the Magic's last 12 against a team with a winning record, 23-8 in their last 31 road games after allowing 105 or more points in their last game and 17-4 in their last 21 road games when playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. Take the UNDER! 

4* Clippers/Raptors NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Raptors -

The Raptors are showing some great value here as a mere 2-point home favorite. Toronto isn't a team that gets a whole lot of publicity and have quietly climbed their way near the top of the Eastern Conference, trailing the Cavaliers by just 2.5-games. Their actually tied with the Clippers for the 5th best record in the league and simply should be a bigger favorite at home than what we are seeing here. 

Toronto is 14-6 at home this season and come in having won 7 straight games. The reason this line isn't bigger, is the Clippers have won 12 of their last 14 and are fresh off a 28-point win at New York. The key here is that this will be Los Angeles' third straight game on the road in the last 4 days and that's a tall task to overcome for a west coast team playing all of these road games against Eastern Conference teams. 

Toronto is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against at team that's won more than 60% of their games, while Clippers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 off a SU win by more than 10 points. It's also worth noting the Raptors have won 3 straight in the series, including a 11-point win at Los Angeles back on 11/22. Take Toronto! 

4* Pacers/Kings NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Kings - 

Sacramento has quietly moved into the 8th spot in the Western Conference and are simply showing too much value to pass up at home against the Pacers. The Kings come into this game having won 4 straight, including a big home win over the Hawks last time out. 

They catch Indiana in a great spot, as the Pacers are going to have a hard time matching the intensity of the Kings after last night's huge road game against the Warriors. Not only is Indiana playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this is their 4th road game in a row. You also have to factor in the Pacers aren't playing all that great at the moment. Indiana has lost 4 of their last 5 and are just 7-11 in their last 18 overall. 

It's also important to note that the Kings went into Indiana and beat the Pacers 108-106 earlier this season. Indiana is just 1-8 ATS this season when revenging a home loss, losing by an average of 6.1 ppg. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Pacers. Underdogs revenging a loss as a home favorite, who are off a cover where the team lost as an underdog are just 85-133 ATS since 1996. That's a 61% system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Heavy Hitter on Rockets -

The Rockets have won 4 straight against the Bucks and are showing some tremendous value here as a mere 3-point home favorite tonight. We are seeing a low line here due to Houston being without Dwight Howard, but it's not like they aren't use to playing without him.

Milwaukee is also getting way too much respect due to coming in having won 3 straight, including back-to-back road games against the Hornets and Heat. Their last win against Miami was a blowout (91-79), but keep in mind the Heat are decimated with injuries right now. Even with those two wins away from home in their last two games, Milwaukee is just 7-18 on the road this season. 

Houston had been playing extremely well prior to dropping 3 of their last 4, as they had won 5 straight. Two of those losses came against two of the top 5 teams in the league in the Cavaliers and Clippers and they simply came out flat last time out against the Bucks. That won't be the case tonight, as I look for the Rockets to bring max effort in this one, as this is a game they know they can't afford to lose. 

Bucks are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 after allowing 85 or less in their last game and a mere 2-14 ATS in their last 16 after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against at team with a losing road record and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Houston! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Jazz -

This is a great spot to back Utah as a relatively small road favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is arguably the worst team in the league and they have shown little to no signs of snapping out of their recent funk since losing starting point guard Jarrett Jack to a season-ending injury. The Nets have lost 9 of their last 10 and are just 4-18 in their last 22 overall. 

Utah is just 18-24 overall, but are a much better team than their record would indicate. If it wasn't for injuries, I strongly believe this team would be at .500 or better. The Jazz have been extremely unfortunate of late, losing 111-118 in overtime last time out at New York, which followed a double-overtime loss at Charlotte. Their loss prior to that was a heartbreaking 2-point defeat to the Kings at home. This team could very easily be 6-1 over their last 7. Regardless, we can expect a pissed off and highly motivated Utah team taking the floor tonight against the Nets and that should be more than enough for them to win here and cover this spread. 

Brooklyn hasn't just been losing games, they have been getting destroyed. Their average loss during their 1-9 recent run has come by 15.3 ppg. Brooklyn is only scoring 94.7 ppg at home and Utah is one of the better defensive teams in the league, especially when Gobert is healthy and controlling the paint. 

Jazz are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 games and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games after a combined score of 205 or more last time out. Nets are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Utah! 

5* Bulls/Celtics NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bulls +

Chicago is coming off one of their most embarrassing losses of the season, as they lost 94-125 at home to the Warriors in Wednesday's nationally televised game on ESPN. That loss isn't going to sit well with the Bulls and I look for them to come out inspired against the Celtics tonight. Chicago has responded well in this spot of late, as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a double-digit loss at home. 

Hard to not like their chances given how poorly the Celtics have been playing. Boston is just 4-8 in their last 12 games and two of those wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league right now in the Nets and Suns. Boston did win at home earlier this season, but are just 2-7 in their last 9 games in the series against the Bulls. 

A big reason Boston is struggling right now is there defense, as they come in allowing a staggering 109.4 ppg over their last 5 contests. Last time out they gave up 115 to the Raptors.  That's important to note, as the Celtics are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games after allowing 110 or more points in their previous game. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system in favor of the Bulls. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who trailed in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 25-6 (81%) ATS since 1996. Take Chicago! 

4* Grizzlies/Nuggets NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Grizzlies - 

Memphis is finally starting to play up to their potential. The Grizzlies have won 3 straight and 8 of their last 11 overall. Memphis knows that now is their time to make a move in the standings and what I really like about their play of late is they are getting back to being dominant on the defensive end. Since Dec. 14 the Grizzlies are allowing a mere 95.2 ppg. 

Their defense should be more than enough to get a win on the road against the Nuggets, who are just 8-13 at home this season, allowing 105.3 ppg. Denver is getting a lot of love right now due to their recent win at home over the Warriors, but that was simply Golden State overlooking them. That won't be the case with Memphis. It's also worth noting that the Grizzlies have won 6 of the last 8 meetings in the series with 3 straight wins by 7 or more points. 

Memphis does have a losing road record this year, but Denver is just 16-38-3 ATS in their last 57 home games against a team with a losing home record. Nuggets are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games after playing 2 straight games where 205 or more combined points were scored. Grizzlies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 on 2 days of rest, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after failing to cover the spread in their last game. Take Memphis! 

5* Hawks/Blazer ESPN ATS Vegas Insider on Blazers +

The books are begging you to take the Hawks as a small road favorite against the Blazers in a prime time matchup on ESPN, which only strengthens how much I like Portland in this spot. The Blazers come into this game playing well. They have won 4 of their last 5, which includes two impressive home wins over the Thunder (115-10) and Jazz (99-85). 

Atlanta is simply getting a lot of love here due to back-to-back blowout wins at home against the Nets (114-86) and Magic (98-81). Two teams that aren't very good and not playing well at the moment. The key thing here is the Hawks have not played well on the road of late. They lost back-to-back games at Charlotte (84-107) and Milwaukee (101-108) and have dropped 4 of their last 6 away from home with one of the wins coming against the 76ers. 

These two teams played in Atlanta back on 12/21, which the Hawks won by a final of 106-97. That may appear as positive for Atlanta, but Portland is a completely different team on the road and were without their top two scorers in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. It's also worth noting that the Blazers went just 5 of 24 from the 3-point line and as a team rank 3rd in the league with 10.3 3-pointers made per game. 

Hawks are a mere 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road games in the 2nd half of the season against up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots/game and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games against a marginal winning team (40% to 49%). Blazers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 off an upset win as a road dog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference. Take Portland! 

4* Bulls/Warriors ESPN Total Dominator on UNDER 

When it comes to playing elite teams at home the Bulls have been outstanding on the defensive side of the floor. Just to mention a few, Chicago has held the Cavaliers to 95, Thunder to 98, San Antonio to 89, Clippers to 80, Raptors to 97. I'm expecting that same defensive intensity against the Warriors, as they are well aware of what happened to Cleveland at home on Monday. 

These two teams played in Golden State earlier this season and combined for just 200 points with a total of 207.5. Given this is such a huge matchup and that it's a nationally televised game on ESPN, there's no doubt in mind mind this is an inflated total, especially with both teams coming off high-scoring games that went over the total. 

What gets overlooked on both of these teams is how good they are on the defensive end. Chicago ranks 6th in defensive efficiency and the Warriors are 4th. Another important factor here is that this is a bit of a letdown spot for Golden State, as there's no question that game at Cleveland meant a lot to this team. 

UNDER is 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, 12-2 in their last 14 against the Western Conference and 8-1 in their last 9 home games when revenging a loss to an opponent where they allowed 100 or more. UNDER is also 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in Chicago. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Celtics/Raptors UNDER 

These two teams combined for 216 points in their only previous meeting this season at Boston back on 10/30. The total in that game was just 200 points. Given that both teams have cruised past the over in each of their last 3 games, you would expect to see a much higher total in this game. That's a good sign the books are expecting a lot more defense this time around and I definitely think that's going to be the case. 

Anytime you get two division rivals going at it this late in the season, especially quality teams like we have here, the defensive intensity gets turned up a notch. Overall, both of these teams have been strong defensively against their division foes this season. Boston is only giving up 99.9 and the Raptors are allowing just 94.6 ppg. 

Toronto won that first meeting 113-103 at Boston, which is important to note, as the UNDER is 12-2 in the Celtics last 14 road games when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. UNDER is also 13-1 in Boston's last 14 road games off a loss by 6 points or less and 9-3 in the Raptors last 12 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* Wolves/Pelicans NBA TV ATS No Brainer on Pelicans -

As bad as the Pelicans have struggled to this point, New Orleans is still within striking distance of a playoff spot in the Western Conference. I still believe that this is a much better team than it's record would indicate and that is playing a big part in the value we are finding with New Orleans as   a relatively small home favorite against the Timberwolves. 

Minnesota comes in off a 117-87 blowout win at home against the Suns, but given the way Phoenix has been playing of late that's really nothing to get excited about. That win doesn't cover up the fact that the Timberwolves had lost 9 straight and 21 of the previous 25. Minnesota is just 3-12 over their last 15 road games and I just don't see them putting up much of a fight tonight. 

It's also important to note that New Orleans has owned the Timberwolves of late. The Pelicans have won 5 straight in the series and all 5 wins have come by at least 7 points. Last time they hosted Minnesota, they won 110-88. 

Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the Western Conference, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when playing on no rest. Minnesota is 1-13 ATS in their last 14 after covering 3 of their last 4, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after playing a game as a favorite and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Take New Orleans! 

3* Bulls/Pistons NBA ATS Annihilator on Bulls +

The Bulls have been waiting for their chance at revenge against the Pistons. Chicago has lost both meetings against Detroit this season in heartbreaking fashion. They fell 94-98 at Detroit back on 10/30 and then recently suffered a 144-147 4OT thriller at Chicago on 12/18. Not only are the Bulls going to be extremely motivated playing with double-revenge, but Chicago desperately needs a win here after losing 4 of their last 5. 

Detroit isn't going to have that same sense of urgency due to already having beat the Bulls twice this year. On top of that, the Pistons are in a prime letdown spot after a 113-95 home win over the Warriors as a 7-point dog, easily their best win of the entire season. 

Bulls are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 revenging a home loss and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 2 days of rest. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Pistons. Home teams off an upset win as a home dog against an opponent off a home loss are just 12-40 (23%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Chicago! 

4* NBA Early Bird Over/Under Total Annihilator on Jazz/Hornets UNDER

This game has a low-scoring defensive battle written all over it. Utah should be able to dictate the tempo in this one, as they will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 4 days, while the Hornets are playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days. No team plays at a slower tempo than the Jazz at 93.5.

Utah's overall defensive numbers aren't great, but that has a lot to do with center Rudy Gobert has missed a significant stretch. He's back in the lineup and the Jazz have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 100 or less, three times holding under 85. Charlotte only managed 92 points at home against the Bucks in their last game and I don't see the offense coming to life against Utah. 

Charlotte is giving up 100.4 ppg on the season, but they play much better defensively at home, where they are allowing 98.2 ppg. I look for the Hornets defense to be able to keep the Jazz in check, as Utah is far from an explosive offensive team and are without 2nd leading scorer Derrick Favors (16.8 ppg). 

Under is 31-13 in the Hornets last 44 home games as a favorite of 6 or less, 23-11 in Utah's last 34 as a road dog of 6 or less, 8-1 in the Jazz's last 9 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 20-5 in their last 25 after allowing 85 or less in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Timberwolves -

This is a great spot to back Minnesota as a small home favorite against the Suns. While the Timberwolves come in having lost 9 straight, this is a young team that is still playing hard right now. It also says a lot about what the books are expecting here from the Suns with the Timberwolves listed as a favorite. Phoenix has been equally bad of late, as they are just 1-12 in their last 13 games. 

Minnesota's not a great home team, but the Suns are straight up awful on the road. Phoenix is 4-17 away from home, losing by an average of 9.8 ppg. The Suns are playing little to no defense right now and the injury to Eric Bledsoe has really taken away from their ability to score on the offensive end. Phoenix has allowed 100+ points in 12 of their last 13 games and are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing 100 or more in 3 straight games. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Suns. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are playing just their 2nd game in 5 days are 10-29 (26%) ATS on Sunday over the last 5 seasons. It's also worth noting that the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in the series. Take Minnesota!

4* Bucks/Hornets NBA ATS No Brainer on Hornets -

This may seem like a big number for Charlotte to be laying at home against the Bucks, given the Hornets come in off a 107-109 loss at home last night to the Pelicans, while Milwaukee pulled off an impressive upset last night in a 108-101 overtime win at home against the Hawks. This is also looks like a lot of points given Charlotte is a mere 1-8 in their last 9 overall. 

The key thing to keep in mind with the Hornets lackluster play of late, is 6 of their last 9 have come on the road, where they are just 4-14 on the season. They did lose twice at home during this stretch, but that was against two of the best teams in the west in the Thunder and Clippers. The lone win was a dominant 107-84 win at home against the Hawks on Wednesday. 

Not only is Charlotte going to be the more motivated team in this one, given they are coming off a loss and the Bucks are off a win, but this is an absolutely awful spot for Milwaukee.

It would be hard enough for the Bucks to bounce back on no rest on the road after an overtime win at home against a top level team, but it becomes even harder when factor in this will be their 4th game in 5 nights, arguably the worst scheduling spot you can find yourself in the NBA, especially when that 5th game comes on the road. Adding to this is the fact that Milwaukee is just 5-18 on the road this season, losing by an average of 9.6 ppg. 

It's also worth noting that the Hornets won 87-82 at home in the last meeting in the series, as underdogs revenging a road loss to an opponent who are playing their 4th game in 5 days are just 28-59 (32%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Charlotte! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Heat/Nuggets UNDER

This game has a defensive battle written all over it. Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 95.5 ppg. Their effort on that side of the ball doesn't lapse on the road. In fact, they actually allow only 95.1 ppg away from home, which has resulted in 12 of their 16 road games this season going under the total. 

The Heat are going to have to rely on their defense over the next few games with starting point guard Goran Dragic out with an injured calf. This will be the 2nd straight game he's missed and in his first game out the Heat managed just 90 points against the Clippers. Miami ranks 29th of 30 teams in pace at 94.5 and that isn't going to get better with Dragic out. 

Denver comes into this game off a high-scoring affair in their 112-110 upset win at home against the Warriors. Any game involving the Warriors is going to be high-scoring given their offensive weapons and how fast they like to play (rank 2nd in pace).

The key thing to keep in mind is that prior to that game against Golden State, Denver previous 3 games were all very low-scoring. They combined for just 187 in a 95-92 win at home against the Hornets, 175 in 84-91 loss at Memphis and 152 in 78-74 win at Minnesota. 

UNDER is 13-2 in Miami's 15 games over the last 2 seasons after allowing 100 or more in their previous 2 games (haven't allowed 100+ in 3 straight all season). UNDER is also 11-1 in their last 12 as a road favorite of 3 points or less and 12-3 in their last 15 against the Western Conference. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pelicans -

The Hornets come into this game off an impressive 107-84 blowout win at home over the Hawks, which I believe has Charlotte getting way too much respect here as a small road dog against the Pelicans. What can't get overlooked is just how bad Charlotte has been on the road. The Hornets are 4-13 away from home overall and just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. 

New Orleans has been a major disappointment this season so far, but the Pelicans were able to finish up their 3-game road trip with a 109-97 win at Sacramento as a 6.5-point underdog. I'm aware the Pelicans will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, but this has actually been a profitable spot to back New Orleans. They are 13-4 ATS over the last 2 seasons in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. 

It's also important to note that the Hornets have struggled to cover in games that are expected to be high-scoring, which is definitely the case here with the Pelicans averaging 105.1 ppg and allowing 106.5 ppg at home. Charlotte is a mere 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games with a total of 200 to 209.5.

The Hornets are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a losing home record and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. Take New Orleans! 

5* Hawks/Bucks NBA ATS Vegas Insider on Hawks -

Atlanta comes into this game off an embarrassing 84-107 loss at Charlotte on Wednesday, which followed one of their best efforts of the season in a 120-105 win against the Bulls last Saturday. With home games against the Nets and Magic on deck, we should get a max effort here from the Hawks as they will be extremely motivated to make a statement after how poorly they played against the Hornets. 

I look for them to have no problem getting a win here against the Bucks, who are just 6-10 in their last 16 games. While Milwaukee had yesterday off, this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights, as well as their 4th in the last 6 days. Atlanta on the other hand is well-rested, as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

It's also important to note that the Hawks have owned the Bucks of late. Atlanta is 13-2 against Milwaukee over the last 15 meetings and have won 6 straight at the Bradley Center, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in the process. 

The Hawks are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games with a total 200 to 209.5 and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 off an upset loss as a favorite. WE also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Bucks. Teams off a road cover where they lost outright as an underdog against an opponent off a loss by 10 or more as a road favorite are 14-44 (24%) ATS since 1996. Take Atlanta! 

5* Cavs/Spurs NBA No Limit Top Play on UNDER

Two of the NBA's best will square off tonight in a prime time showdown on TNT. Cleveland comes into this game having won 8 straight and 14 of their last 16 overall. San Antonio has won 9 straight and 16 of their last 17 overall. This is a statement game for both teams and I expect to see near playoff intensity in this one. I believe it's going to lead to a defensive battle and a much lower-scoring game than most would expect. 

It reminds me a lot of the Christmas Day matchup between the the Cavs and Warriors. Cleveland lost that game at Golden State 83-89 for a combined total of 172 points. Well below the posted total for the game of 207.5. San Antonio is even a better defensive team than than the Warriors. The Spurs are allowing 93.5 points per 100 possessions which is the best mark in more than a decade. Cleveland ranks 5th in defensive efficiency, allowing just 99.4 points per 100 possessions. 

UNDER is 31-17 in the Cavaliers last 48 games against high-scoring teams averaging 103+ points/game 19-9 in their last 28 as a dog and 5-1 in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! 

4* Pacers/Celtics NBA ATS Vegas Insider on Celtics -

The Celtics suffered yet another crushing loss last night, losing 114-120 at New York. Boston has now lost 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall. This recent poor stretch has created some exceptional value here on the Celtics as a small home favorite against the Pacers. Indiana has a strong 22-16 record overall, but are just 9-11 on the road. 

Not only is Boston going to be extremely motivated to put an end to their losing streak, but the Celtics will be playing with double-revenge from two earlier losses this season to the Pacers. The last loss in the series came at home and that sets up a favorable spot to back Boston, as they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a loss as a home favorite. 

Boston is also a team you can feel confident backing when playing on limited rest. The Celtics are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 27-10 ATS in their last 37 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. 

Indiana also played last night, but they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when playing on no rest, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 off a SU win by more than 10 points and 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games after 5 straight games holding opponents to 42% or worse shooting from the field. Take Boston! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Knicks/Nets UNDER

These two teams combined for 199 points in a 108-91 win by the Knicks at at home back on 12/4. The total for that game was just 192.5. You would expect to see a bigger total in the rematch, but it's actually lower and for good reason. Brooklyn is not the same offensive team as they were back in early December, as they have lost starting point guard Jarrett Jack. His loss has been evident of late, as the Nets are averaging just 82.6 ppg over their last 5. 

New York is coming off a high-scoring game last night in a 120-114 win at home against the Celtics. That actually favors the under, with the Knicks playing on the road with no rest. You also have to keep in mind Boston plays at one of the fastest paces of any team in the NBA. Add in the possibility that Carmelo Anthony won't play or will be hobbled if he does, and neither offense figures to do a lot in this game. This is also a big rivalry, which is going to have both teams playing hard defensively. 

UNDER is 11-2 in the Nets last 13 when they come in having failed to cover in 3 or more consecutive games and 13-3 in their last 16 after a game where they made 20% or less of their 3-point shots. UNDER is also 23-11 in the Knicks last 34 against a team with a losing record and 11-5 in their last 16 after scoring 100+ in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

4* Cavs/Mavs NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Mavs +

The Mavericks are showing huge value here as a decently priced home underdog. Dallas comes into this game having won 7 of their last 10 and are a solid 11-6 on their home floor this season. Cleveland is simply getting way too much respect here due to having won 7 straight. While the Mavericks aren't viewed as a push over, it's going to be hard for the Cavaliers to not look ahead to Thursday's big showdown at San Antonio on TNT, where they will take their crack at snapping the Spurs perfect 22-0 home record. 

One of the reasons Dallas has been playing well of late, is Dirk Nowitzki is playing at a high level. The 37-year-old put up 29 in their last game against the Timberwolves and has made 12 of 29 from long distance over his last 4. It's also worth nothing that Dallas has won 8 of the last 10 in the series. 

Cleveland is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points, while the Mavericks are 8-1 ATS this season when listed as a 3.5 to 9.5 point underdog. Take Dallas! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Heat/Warriors UNDER

I believe the books have set this total too high for tonight's matchup between the Heat and Warriors. Only the Jazz play at a slower pace than Miami and the Heat know they have no chance of winning this game if it turns into a shootout. Miami is going to try and slow this game way down and try and grind out a win with their defense, which is giving up just 93.4 ppg on the road and ranks 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

What gets lost in all the attention that surrounds the Warriors and their ability to light up the scoreboard, is the fact that they are a very good defensive team. Golden State only allows 96.9 ppg at home and are 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. I look for that defense to make life miserable for a Miami offense that only averages 93.0 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 11-1 in the Warriors last 12 home games after playing 2 consecutive games as a road favorite and 12-3 in their last 15 home games off a road win by 10 or more points. UNDER is also 14-4 in Miami's last 18 after a game where they failed to cover, 11-3 in their 14 road games this season and 8-0 in in their last 8 road games with a total of 200 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Knicks UNDER 

The books have set the total way too high for Sunday's showdown between the Bucks and Knicks. Neither of these teams are great offensively. Milwaukee comes in averaging just 97.9 ppg (only 96.1 ppg on the road) and New York is only marginally better at 98.2 ppg. Both teams also rank in the bottom 10 of the league in pace, so the tempo here will greatly favor the UNDER. 

These two teams are also very familiar with one another, as this will be the 4th meeting between them this season. Each of the last 2 in the series finished below the total set for this matchup and 5 of the last 6 have stayed under the mark overall. 

UNDER is 21-10 in Milwaukee's last 31 games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 3-1-1 in the Knicks last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the UNDER! 

4* Hornets/Clippers NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Clippers -

The Clippers are quietly going about their business in impressive fashion, despite not having the services of star forward Blake Griffin. LA has won 7 straight and covered the spread in each of their last 6. What really stands out is that 6 of the 7 during their winning streak have come on the road. The lone home game was a 31-point rout of the 76ers.

I don't see the Clippers slowing down at home against a struggling Hornets team that has lost 5 straight and are just 3-10 in their last 13 games overall. Charlotte has also lost 6 straight on the road with all 6 coming by at least 7 points (5 by 9 or more). Another huge factor here is the success that the Clippers have had in this series. LA has won 3 straight and 9 of 10 overall with the only loss coming in Charlotte. 

Hornets are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 with a total set at 200 to 209.5 points, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. Clippers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100+ points. Take Los Angeles! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Suns UNDER

I look for both teams to bring the defensive intensity in this one. Miami is going to be extremely motivated off an ugly 90-98 loss at home to the Knicks as a 7.5-point favorite. The Heat thought they could just show up and get a win an it backed fired. Look for them to really focus in on the defensive end, where they have been dominant this season, allowing just 94.7 ppg. Adding to that, is the fact that Miami only gives up 92.8 ppg on the road. 

Phoenix isn't a great defensive team and a lot of that has to do with effort. Given their bad blood with Miami point guard Goran Dragic, who didn't exactly leave Phoenix on good terms and this will be his first game back. While effort can only get you so far, Miami is not a good offensive team and like to slow down the pace, so I'm not expecting a huge night offensively from them. 

UNDER is 14-3 in the Heat's last 17 after a game they failed to cover the spread and 10-2 in their last 12 road games. UNDER is also 7-1-1 in the Suns last 8 against a team with a winning record and 20-6 in their last 26 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Blowout on Cavaliers -

This might seem like a big number to lay on the Cavaliers on the road, but I look for Cleveland to make easy work of the Timberwolves in tonight's showdown on ESPN. Whenever LeBron James is involved in a nationally televised game, more times than not he brings his best regardless of the opponent. That's a big problem for Minnesota, as they simply don't have the talent to keep this competitive over 48 minutes. 

With Kyrie Irving getting more and more comfortable and starting to play up to his potential, Cleveland has the looks of a team that is ready to go on a serious run to start out 2016. The Cavaliers are 7-4-1 ATS in their last 12 games and were a bad beat away from being 8-3-1, as they should have covered last time out against the Wizards. 

Minnesota is a mere 1-8 in their last 9 games and 6 of those 8 losses have come by double-digits. The Timberwolves also lost badly in both meetings against the Cavs last year, losing 104-125 at Cleveland and 90-106 at home. Minnesota is just 3-15 ATS in their 18 home games this season and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after playing a game as a favorite. Take Cleveland! 

5* Mavs/Bucks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks +

I really like the value we are getting with the Bucks at basically a pick'em at home against the Mavericks. Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and second straight on the road. I look for them to come out sluggish against Milwaukee. The Mavericks followed up a double-overtime game against the Kings on Tuesday with a hard fought 100-91 win at New Orleans and I just don't see the energy being there in this one. 

Milwaukee on the other hand is going to come out motivated to get a win after a couple of ugly losses to the Spurs (98-123) and Bulls (106-117) in their last 2 games. The Bucks will also be out for revenge from a 93-103 loss at Dallas on 12/28. 

Bucks are 35-19 ATS in their last 54 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after 2 or more consecutive losses. Dallas on the other hand is just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games against a team with a winning home record and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 against the Eastern Conference. Take Milwaukee! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Jazz/Rockets OVER

While the Rockets were held to just 93 points at Utah in their last game, it marked only the 3rd time in their last 21 games where they failed to score at least 100 points. I look for Houston to bounce back in a big way on the offensive end against the Jazz tonight, as Utah simply won't have the energy defensively to slow them down. 

Utah is playing short-handed with Derrick Favors, Alec Burks, Rudy Gobert and Dante Exum all out with injuries and that really makes it tough on them, as they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set after giving up 123 to the Spurs last night. Utah will have no choice but to play an up-tempo game with the Rockets in this one and while their limited offensively, Houston comes in allowing 105.8 ppg. 

OVER is 10-4 in the Rockets last 14 home games against a team with a losing road record, 8-2 in their last 10 off a win by 6 points or less, 3-0 this season when playing with 2 days of rest and 3-0 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Take the OVER!  

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nuggets/Wolves OVER 

I'm expecting a shootout in Minnesota tonight between the Nuggets and Timberwolves. These two teams have played twice in the last month. They combined for 219 points at Denver on 12/11 and then 212 at Minnesota on 12/15. Given how these two teams like to get up and down the floor and the little effort they give defensively, I see no reason why this game won't finish with 210+ points. 

Denver is scoring 103.2 ppg and giving up 109.6 ppg over their last 5, while Minnesota is scoring 99.7 ppg and allowing 102.9 ppg on the season. OVER is 13-4 in the Nuggets last 17 with a total of 200 to 209.5 points and 16-6 in their last 22 against bad defensive teams that are allowing 99+ points/game. OVER is also 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Southwest Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Pelicans -

The perception here is that the Mavericks will be out for revenge from a 98-105 home loss to the Pelicans on Saturday, but the reality is that Dallas likely won't have anything left in the tank for this matchup.

The Mavericks just played a grueling double-overtime game against the Kings last night, which saw the two teams combined for 233 points. Not only is Dallas in a horrible back-to-back spot on the road, but this is also their 4th game in the last 6 days. 

New Orleans on the other hand is playing on 3 days rest and this will be just their 2nd game in the last 6 days. Having just beat the Mavericks isn't going to have the Pelicans coming into this game over-confident, which is normally where the revenge angle comes into play. New Orleans can't afford to take any games off, as they have the 3rd worst record in the Western Conference. 

Dallas is just 23-35 ATS in their last 58 after playing a game where both teams combined for 205 or more points, while the Pelicans are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference. Take New Orleans!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Vegas Insider on Pacers -

While Orlando has been one of the big surprises early on this season, the Magic come into this game in a major slump. Orlando has lost 3 straight and haven't been competitive in any of the defeats, losing by 12 at Washington, 25 at Cleveland and 26 at Detroit. A big reason for that is the absence of starting point guard Elfrid Payton, who won't be in action again tonight. Keep in mind that top backup C.J. Watson is also out with an injury, leaving Orlando without a true point guard. It has a lot to do with their offense only scoring 91, 79 and 89 points in their last 3 games. 

While the Pacers have dropped 3 of their last 4, they could easily be riding a lengthy winning streak. All 3 losses come by 4-points or less and two of those were on the road against two of the top Eastern Conference teams in the Bulls and Heat. With Paul George back to playing at an elite level (31.7 ppg over last 3), I just don't see Orlando being able to keep pace offensively with the Pacers, who are going to come out inspired. 

Indiana has 5 straight and 9 of the last 10 meetings in the series, which alone is enough reason to back the Pacers at basically a pick'em. We also see the Pacers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 against a team with a winning record and 15-4 ATS in their last 19 when coming in having lost 3 of their last 4. Take Indiana! 

4* Kings/Mavs NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Mavs -

The Mavericks are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Kings. Dallas is going to be extremely motivated to get back in the win column after losing back-to-back games at Miami (82-106) and at home to the Pelicans (98-105).

Those two losses are a big part in why we are getting a favorable number to back the Mavericks, as well as the fact that the Kings are coming in off two blowout wins over the Suns (142-119) and Thunder (116-104). Beating Phoenix at home isn't nothing to get excited about and their win over Oklahoma City came with Durant sidelined. Big key here is the Kings are just 5-11 on the road this season and are a mere 3-21 in their last 24 meetings with Dallas. 

Sacramento is 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a SU win, 8-20 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 60+ points in the first half of their last game and 4-16 ATS in their last 20 off an upset win as an underdog. Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in last 15 off a SU loss, 11-4 ATS last 15 versus Western Conference and 5-1 ATS last 6 home games. Take Dallas! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Pistons UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring affair tonight between the Pistons and Magic. Both of these teams are going to be hungry for a win after a poor stretch. Detroit has lost 4 of 5, while the Magic have dropped 2 straight. Both of these teams can get after it defensively when they want. Orlando only allows 98.7 ppg and the Pistons are giving up just 97.7 ppg. 

A huge key here is that both teams will either be without their starting point guard or have them at less than 100%. Orlando's Elfrid Payton is questionable with an ankle injury that kept him from practicing Sunday and keep in mind that backup C.J. Watson is out indefinitely with a calf injury. Detroit's Reggie Jackson is also questionable with an ankle injury and he's the one guy this offense can't afford to lost. Jackson leads the team with 19.9 ppg and 6.4 apg. 

UNDER is 20-8 in Orlando's last 28 road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 21-9 in their last 30 road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. UNDER is also 5-2 in the Pistons last 7 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 4-1 in their last 5 against the Southeast. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month on Celtics -

The Celtics will be out for revenge against the Nets, as they just lost at home to Brooklyn 97-100 in their last game. This came on the heels of an ugly 104-112 home loss to the Lakers. Needless to say we can expect a max effort here from Boston in this spot. The same can't be said for the Nets, who also find themselves in a tough spot playing their first game without starting point guard Jarrett Jack, who was lost for the season with a torn ACL in the win over Boston. 

Brooklyn hasn't won consecutive games in almost a month (12/8 and 12/10) and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Boston on the other hand is a team that has thrived on the road. The Celtics are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games. They are also 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games when playing with double-revenge and 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games after allowing 100 or more points in 2 straight games. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are outscoring opponents on average by 3+ points/game are 48-19 (72%) ATS since 1996 after allowing 55 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take Boston! 

3* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Raptors -

These two teams recently played in Chicago, which the Bulls won 104-97. That's set up some great value here on the Raptors in a big revenge spot on their home floor. These two teams have pretty significant home/away splits. Toronto is 11-5 at home compared to 10-8 on the road. Chicago is 14-5 at home compared to just 5-7 on the road. Raptors rebounded with back-to-back home wins over the Wizards and Hornets after their loss to Chicago and will be extremely motivated to finish off their homestand with another victory, as they get ready to play 5 straight on the road. 

Bulls are a mere 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after covering the spread in their previous game, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 off a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Raptors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Chicago. Teams who average 83 or more shots/game that have held their opponent to 39% or less from the field in 2 straight games are just 20-51 (28%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Toronto! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Pacers -

This is a great spot to back the Pacers, as they are going to come out extremely motivated off back-to-back losses, including a 116-120 loss at home to the Bucks in their last contest. That was just the 5th home loss for Indiana on the season, as they are 11-5 at home.

Detroit comes in off an easy wi at home against the Timberwolves, but that's not say much given how poorly Minnesota has been playing. Prior to that the Pistons had dropped 3 straight and I think they are still adjusting to life with Brandon Jennings back from injury. Detroit is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. 

Pacers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record, 18-6 ATS in their last 24 against the Eastern Conference and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against division opponents. Pacers are also 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents. Take Indiana! 

4* Clippers/Pelicans NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Pelicans -

New Orleans is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Clippers. While Los Angels comes in having won 4 straight and covered each of their last 3, this is a horrible scheduling spot for the Clippers. Los Angeles will not only be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road after playing last night in Charlotte, but this will be the Clippers 5th road game in the last 7 days. With it being New Year's Eve and LA scheduled to return home after this game, I don't see the Clippers being interested at all in playing this contest. 

Pelicans on the other hand are a team that's desperate to turn their season around and simply can't afford to drop any games like this at home, especially when they have such a big advantage in rest. New Orleans has had 2 days off leading up to this game and will be just their 2nd game in 5 days overall. Keep in mind the Clippers are also playing without All-Star Blake Griffin. 

The Clippers and Hornets combined for 239 points last night and it was the 3rd straight game in which LA has scored at least 100 points. The Clippers are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 off a game where 225 or more combined points were scored and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 or more in 3 straight games. Take New Orleans! 

3* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Blazers -

This may seem like a lot of points for the Blazers to be laying at home against the Nuggets, but it's for good reason. Denver is in an absolutely horrible scheduling spot. The Nuggets were going to have a hard enough time bouncing back from last night's home game against the Cavaliers, which they really came out and played hard against the reigning Eastern Conference champs.

Not only do they have to take on Portland on no rest, but they find themselves in the dreaded spot of playing their 6th game in 9 days. On top of that, they have a game against the Warriors on deck, which is a team everyone is looking ahead to on the schedule. I'm not expecting the Nuggets to show any interest at all in playing this game. 

Portland on the other hand is coming in off back-to-back wins, including a 105-76 win at home against the Cavs as a 7.5-point dog and 98-94 win at Sacramento as a 9-point dog. Both wins came without Damian Lillard and there's a good chance he returns tonight, as he almost played in each of the last two. Denver on the other hand doesn't figure to have leading scorer Danilo Gallinari or point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, making it that much harder on them giving the scheduling spot. 

Blazers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing road record and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 versus a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. It's also worth noting that they are 10-1 in their last 11 home games against the Nuggets. Take Portland! 

5* NBA Game of the Month on Rockets -

The Rockets are showing exceptional value here as basically a pick'em at home against the Hawks. Houston has won 7 straight at home, including an impressive 88-84 win over the Spurs in their last home game. The Rockets did lose their last game at New Orleans 108-110, but that was a tough spot on the road with no rest after laying it all on the line against San Antonio on Christmas Day. 

The key here is that loss has created some value with Houston, who comes in well rested with 2 days off before this matchup. Atlanta on the other hand is in a horrible scheduling spot. The Hawks played last night in a hard fought 87-93 loss at Indiana and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back road set and 6th game overall in the last 10 days. 

Rockets are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 when playing with 2 days of rest, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a game where they failed to cover and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after playing their last game as a road favorite. Hawks are 0-4 ATS in last 4 when playing on no rest. Take Houston! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on 76ers/Jazz UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for this matchup. These two teams played in Philadelphia back on 10/30 and combined for just 170 points in a 18-point win for the Jazz. With the 76ers expected to be without leading scorer Jahlil Okafor and the Raptors playing without 3rd leading scorer Alec Burks and potentially 2nd leading scorer Derrick Favors (questionable), offense is going to be hard to come by for these two teams. 

Adding to this is the fact that Utah plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league, while the 76ers have the least efficient offense in the league. There's also a great chance this game turns into a blowout, which is a good sign for a game to under the total. 

UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in the series (each of the last 3 have seen 172 or less points). UNDER is also 20-7-1 in the 76ers last 28 following a SU win, 20-8 in Utah's last 28 vs the Eastern Conference, 18-8 in their last 26 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 38-17 in the Jazz's last 55 when facing an opponent who scored 100+ points in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

4* Raptors/Bulls NBA TV ATS No Brainer on Bulls -

The Bulls are showing great value here at basically a pick'em at home against the Raptors. Chicago comes into this game off a 111-118 loss at Dallas, a game they let get away late. The Bulls however, have been money when playing at home against top level teams and I look for them to have no problem taking down the Raptors at the United Center tonight. 

Chicago has won 6 of the last 8 meetings in the series, including all 4 meetings last year. A big reason for that is Jimmy Butler, who can cause problems for Toronto leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, who is averaging 26.6 ppg since 12/9. Butler also causes major problems defensively for the Raptors, as he's averaging 23.7 ppg on 62% shooting in his last 3 against Toronto. 

Bulls are 11-5 at home this season and have already racked up wins at home against the likes of Cavaliers, Thunder, Pacers, Spurs, and Clippers. Many of those games were prime time matchups and that's what we have here, as this game will be televised on NBA TV. Take Chicago! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Lakers/Grizzlies UNDER

Memphis will be returning home looking to bounce back from back-to-back road losses against the Wizards and Hornets. The Grizzlies scored just 91 and 92 points in those two games and are averaging just 94.2 ppg over their last 5. Memphis isn't a team that likes to play fast and rarely puts up a lot of points. In fact, they have eclipsed the 100-point mark just 2 times in their last 13 games. 

The Lakers aren't a great defensive team by any means, but are certainly capable of keeping the Grizzlies from scoring enough here to push this over the mark. Offensively, we don't have to worry too much about LA, as they are scoring just 89.0 ppg over their last 5 and Memphis is only giving up 93.8 ppg over their last 5. 

UNDERis 12-4 in the Lakers last 16 when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and 13-4 in their last 17 when off a home loss by 10 or more points. UNDER is also 21-4-1 in the Grizzlies last 26 against the Pacific, 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on no rest, 11-3-1 in their last 15 on Sunday and 6-2 in their last 8 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Situational Over/Under Total No Brainer on Cavs/Blazers UNDER

The Cavaliers have allowed 90 or fewer points in 3 straight games, including a dominant defensive effort in yesterday's 83-89 loss at Golden State, which marked the first time since 2013 that the Warriors failed to score at least 90-points at home. Losing that game is only going to have the Cavaliers that much more motivated to come out and get a win against Portland. 

The Blazers aren't a great defensive team by any means, but we can expect a max effort here from Portland on that side of the ball given they are playing against James and the Cavs. UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Portland. Under is also 4-0 in the Cavaliers last 4 road games and 40-16 in their last 56 when facing an opponent that allowed 100 or more points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Bulls/Mavs UNDER

The Bulls put an end to their 3-game losing streak with a dominant performance in yesterday's 105-96 win at Oklahoma City as a 10-point underdog. Chicago limited the Thunder to just 38.5% shooting and I look for that defensive intensity to carry over against the Mavericks, who are playing with starting point guard Deron Williams. 

At the same time, I look for Dallas to match the intensity of the Bulls on the defensive side of the floor. Dallas is only giving up 97.2 ppg and holding opponents to just 43.8% shooting against them at home. UNDER is 20-8 in the Bulls last 28 against the Western Conference, 8-1 in their last 9 off a cover and 20-8-1 in their last 29 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. UNDER is also 7-1 in Mavs last 8 home games and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER! 

5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Christmas Day Vegas Insider on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over. 

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season. 

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 8-3-1 in the Cavs last 12 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 6-1 in Cleveland's last 7 off a SU, 11-4 in the Warriors last 15 against the Central Division, and 15-7-2 in their last 24 home games. Take the UNDER! 

4* Bulls/Thunder NBA Situational Total Annihilator on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over. 

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season. 

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 10-1 in the Bulls last 11 against the Western Conference, 15-4-2 in their last 21 when playing with 3 or more days of rest and 23-9 in their last 32 road games against a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also also 7-0 in the Thunder's last 7 home games, 8-1 in their last 9 against the Eastern Conference and 20-7-1 in their last 28 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Early Bird Christmas Day Total No Brainer on Pelicans/Heat UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over.

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season.

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 9-3 in Miami's last 12 against the Western Conference, 15-5 in their last 20 when playing with 2 days rest and 7-3 in their last 10 games following a SU loss. UDNER is also 35-16-1 in the Pelicans last 52 road games (6-2-1 in last 8 against team with a winning home record) and 5-2 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Pelicans/Blazers UNDER

These two teams recently played in Portland on 12/14 and combined for 206 points, which I believe has created some exceptional value here on the UNDER in the rematch. Not only are the two teams more familiar with one another having just recently played, but the Blazers have no choice but to try and slow this game down with Damian Lillard out and C.J. McCollum doubtful. 

Not having these two leave Portland without a go-to scorer. Lillard averages a team-high 24.6 ppg and McCollum is right behind at 20.1 ppg. The next best scorer on the Blazers is Al-Farouq Aminu at a mere 10.9 ppg. Making matters even worse, Portland will be playing their 5th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 days. 

The Pelicans are coming off a 130-point effort in their win at Denver on Sunday, but only averaged 98.8 ppg over their previous 5. With New Orleans coming off a 5-game road trip and Portland in the shape they are in with the injuries to their two best players, I could see the Pelicans struggling to get up for this game, especially considering they have a huge showdown with the Heat on deck Christmas Day. 

Either way New Orleans figures to win here comfortably and that should have this game finishing well below the mark. UNDER is 8-2 in the Blazers last 10 off a cover and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Pelicans last 4  off a win  and 15-5-1 in their last 21 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Total of the Month on Mavs/Nets UNDER

I'm expecting a very low-scoring game here between the Mavericks and Nets tonight. Dallas won't be looking to push the pace offensively playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, especially after using up a ton energy last night at Toronto trying to rally from a 13-point halftime deficit. The Mavericks also haven't been playing great offensively of late, as they have scored 99 or less in 3 straight. 

It doesn't figure to get any better against the Nets, as Dallas lost starting point guard Deron Williams to a hamstring injury against the Raptors. They also aren't expected to have backup point guard Devin Harris, leaving them thin at the point and thus must play at a slower pace. The Nets are coming off a 105-102 win at Chicago, but this is a team that is not great offensively. Brooklyn had scored 97 or less in each of their previous 4 and have only cracked the century mark 4 time sin their last 14 games. 

UNDER is 36-17 in the Mavericks last 53 games against a bad team like the Nets, who have won fewer than 40% of their games. UNDER is also 10-4 in Dallas' last 14 against an opponent coming off a 100-point game and 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games after scoring 100 or more. UNDER is also 10-3 in Brooklyn's last 13 against the Western Conference and 4-1 in their last 5 at home. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Grizzlies +

While Memphis is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, I actually think it will be the Wizards who are the more tired team in this matchup. Washington has been decimated with injuries of late and had just 8 players available in their game Monday against the Kings. All 5 starters played at least 33 minutes with Dudley and Temple both going over 40 minutes. Even Sessions played 31 minutes off the bench. I just don't think the Wizards are going to have much left in the tank for this game. 

These two teams played back on 12/14 in Memphis and the Grizzlies won convincingly 112-95. What really stands out is Memphis shot 56.4% from the field, so clearly there's a matchup problem defensively for Washington against the Grizzlies. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a similar type of score, even with the Wizards getting this one on their home court. 

The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a losing home record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when playing on no rest. Washington is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win. Take Memphis! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf Total of the Month on UNDER

The books have set the total too high for tonight's showdown between the Pistons and Heat, which isn't a big surprise given Detroit has played in 3 straight games where 200+ points were scored, including a 4-overtime thriller at Chicago in their last game where 191 combined points were scored. Miami also comes in off a high-scoring game, as they defeated the Blazers 116-109 at home. 

The key here is that this game is being played in Miami and the Heat should be able to dictate the tempo. Miami is only scoring 96.8 ppg on the season and allowing just 94.9 ppg. Detroit only averages 99.0 ppg on the road and should come out with a lot of energy on defense after a 3-day break. These two teams played earlier this season in Detroit and combined for just 185 points and that was with the Pistons exploding for 60 points in the 1st half. 

It's also worth noting that Detroit won that first meeting 104-81, as the UNDER is 9-1 in the Heat's last 10 when revenging a road loss and 7-0 in Miami's last 7 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. UNDER is also 11-0 in Miami's last 11 after allowing 105 or more points in 2 straight games, 16-4 in Detroit's last 20 road games after playing their last game as a road dog and 9-1 in their last 10 road games when playing 4 or less gams in 10 days. Take the UNDER! 

4* Hornets/Rockets NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Rockets -

The Rockets come into this game off a 107-97 win at home against the Clippers as a 2.5-point dog and have now won 9 of their last 13, which includes 5 straight wins at home. Even with Houston's strong play of late, the Rockets are still aren't getting much respect from the books given their disappointing start to the season.

Charlotte has been one of the surprises early, but the Hornets are struggling of late. Charlotte lost 101-109 at Washington against a depleted Wizards team that is missing several key players with injuries. It was the Hornets 3rd loss in their last 4 games and they are now just 4-7 on the road, compared to 11-4 at home. Houston has been a difficult team for Charlotte to figure out, as they have lost 9 straight in the series, including 5 straight by at least 10-points. It's also worth noting that they have won 5 straight at home in the series by at least 13 points.

Simply too much value here on Houston, as we basically need them to just win the game to cover this spread. Rockets are 26-12 ATS in their last 36 after a win by 10 or more points, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing with a day of rest. Take Houston!

3* NBA Early Bird ATS Annihilator on Heat -

Miami comes into this game with a 11-5 record at home compared to just 4-5 on the road. Needless to say the Heat play their best basketball in front of the home crowd. This is important to note, as Miami should be extremely motivated off a 94-108 home loss to the Raptors in their last contest, which they gave up a double-digit lead in the 3rd quarter. 

Portland is definitely a team they should be able to beat rather easily. The Blazers are struggling right now, as they are just 2-5 over their last 7 and will be playing their 7th road game in their last 9 games overall. Portland is just 5-11 away from home and this is a bad matchup for the perimeter oriented Blazers. Portland relies heavily on the outside shot and will be facing a Heat team that leads the league in 3-point defense, holding teams to just 31.4% from long distance. It's also worth noting the Blazers are just 1-7 in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference, while Miami is 7-1 in their last 8 against the Western Conference, including a 11-2 record in their last 13 at home. 

Portland is 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than 60%. The Heat are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against a team who has won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Miami! 

3* NBA Situational ATS Line Mistake on Rockets -

Houston is showing great value here at basically a pick'em at home against the Clippers. The Rockets come in off a 107-87 win over the Lakers on Thursday and will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 4 days. The Clippers on the other hand are not only playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but their 3rd in the last 4 days.

LA also finds themselves coming off a huge game at San Antonio last night, which they invested a lot of energy, as their core 4 of Griffin, Jordan, Paul and Redddick all played at least 33 minutes. Clippers aren't a deep team and I look for them to struggle with the pace that the Rockets play with, especially with this game being playing in Houston. 

Another key factor here is the Rockets have had their fair share of success in this series and many will recall they eliminated LA from the playoffs last year. Houston also won 109-105 at Los Angeles back on 11/7. The Rockets have had their struggles early, but are playing much better of late. Houston is 8-4 over their last 12 and have won 4 straight at home. 

Clippers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 100 or more points in 3 straight games, while the Rockets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games off a road win and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off a road win by 10 or more points. Take Houston! 

5* Hawks/Celtics NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Celtics -

I think we are seeing some great value here on Boston as a relatively small home favorite against the Hawks. The Celtics come into this game having lost back-to-back games, but haven't dropped 3 straight since the opening week of the season. Keep in mind Boston's two losses came at home against the red-hot Cavaliers and then at Detroit on no rest. Expect to see a highly motivated Celtics team take the floor tonight. 

Atlanta comes into this game off a 21-pont blowout win at home against the 76ers, which is definitely playing into this small line. However, the Hawks are a team that has not been playing well and shouldn't get any credit for beating a horrible Philadelphia team. Even with the win Atlanta is just 7-10 in their last 17 games. 

The home team has had a decisive edge in this series. Boston won at home 106-93 on 11/13 and Atlanta returned the favor with a 121-97 win at home on 11/24. The home team has now won 6 of the last 7 overall. 

The Celtics are 40-27 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and are a perfect 2-0 ATS off a road loss by 3-points or less. Atlanta is just 1-3 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 off a S& win, 0-2 ATS off a home win where they scored 110 or more points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record. Take Boston! 

3* NBA Situational No Doubt ATS Blowout on Knicks -

The Knicks come into this game having won 2 straight after a miserable 2-8 stretch and I look for them to come out extremely motivated to get a win against the 76ers. New York already defeated Philadelphia 99-87 at home earlier this season and that was a more lopsided game than the final would suggest, as the Knicks went into the 4th quarter leading by 23 points. New York is now 4-1 against the 76ers over the last 2 seasons and all 4 wins have come by at least 7 points. 

The key here is Philadelphia is getting some love from the books for playing at home, but the 76ers have little to no home court advantage. In fact, Philadelphia is 1-10 SU and 3-7 ATS at home this season. A big reason why I like the fade of the 76ers tonight, is we find Philadelphia in a brutal scheduling spot, as this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days and could have their eyes looking ahead to Sunday's showdown against LeBron James and the Cavaliers. 

Knicks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a cover, 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 on the road against a team with a losing home record and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 against division opponents. Philadelphia on the other hand is 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing home record, 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 division games. Take New York! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Hornets UNDER

The Raptors and Hornets both come into this game off a lopsided loss in their last contest and their poor play defensively is to blame. Toronto gave up 106 points in a 16-point defeat at Indiana on Monday and Charlotte allowed 113 last night in a 15-point defeat at Orlando. 

The big key here is that these were uncharacteristic defensive performances for both teams. The Raptors had held each of their previous 4 opponents to 94 or less points, while the Hornets had allowed a team to eclipse the century mark just once in their previous 9 games and that was the Warriors.

Adding to this is the fact that Toronto is only giving up 95.9 ppg on the road and Charlotte is allowing just 96.4 ppg at home. It's also worth noting that these two teams have combined for less than 200 points in 6 of their last 7 meetings and the lone exception came in overtime where they totaled 206. 

UNDER is 6-0 in the Raptors last 6 road games, 5-0 in their last 5 against the Eastern Conference, 8-3 in their last 11 off 2 days of rest and 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 6-1 in the Hornets last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record, 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest, 32-18 in their last 50 home games after playing their previous on the road and 29-12 in their last 41 as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Take the UNDER!