Independence Bowl - Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LA

The LA Tech  Bulldogs enter this game with a lot to prove after losing the CUSA championship game UAB. It must also be mentioned that their starting QB was suspended for that tilt, but will play today behind what will be a crowd that is on their sides here in Shreveport . Note: LOUISIANA TECH is 8-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons Tech are a talented bunch that is not getting enough respect here vs a inconsistent Miami Florida football program, that is ranked  No. 130 in 3rd Down Conversion Percentage  and No. 120 in Red Zone Offense and will be missing three  future NFL starters including their top wide receiver Jeff Thomas. The Bulldogs averaged  34 PPG and 445 YPG,  on offence and had a D that was ranked  No. 3 in Red Zone Defense. Im not a big Manny Diaz fan, and just don't like his mojo so betting against him is not a difficult proposition for me. Miami is just 2-9 SU L/11 Bowl games including a ugly 0-6 ATS as chalk Skip Holtz's  5-1 ATS in bowl game record shines through and gets my support. 

Play on LA Tech to cover 

Hawaii Bowl - Aloha Stadium - Halawa, HI

 Hawaii had a good season overall  as they made it all the way to the Mountain West Championship game. Now the  Warriors get to host a BYU team that is bringing cheerleaders, their families, and even key donors to this game. Its going to be far from a (its all business type of experience for BYU ) and more like a vacation to paradise island which is a negative for game preparation. 

Both teams  pound the ball efficiently but the difference maker comes down to the arm of .Hawaii’s Cole McDonald who has thrown for  29 touchdown passes. 

BYU is 0-6 ATS as a favorite this season. 

The dog has cashed 9 of the L/12 Hawaii Bowls. 

Play on Hawaii to cover 

Gasparilla Bowl - Tropicana Field - St. Petersburg, FL

 This will the Herds  second straight Bowl game here in Raymond James Stadium, and they have a comfort edge going for them in this matchup vs UCF.  It is the fourth time that Marshall has played in the Tampa/St. Petersburg-based bowl game. The Herd is currently 3-0 in its trips to the contest. Add to that Marshall recruits a large number of its players from Florida, and many of them are excited to go home, and show case their abilities, so this Thundering Herd team will be motivated and Im betting they are viable underdogs in this spot play. 

UCF is 1-7 ATS  after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games this season.

MARSHALL is 12-2 ATS in a bowl game since 1992. Holliday is 6-0 ATS/SU  in a bowl game as the coach of MARSHALL and is 11-2 ATS  in games played on a neutral field since 1992.

Take the points with Marshall to cover 

 New Orleans Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Superdome - New Orleans, LA

The Blazers have shown themselves to be talented but highly inconsistent this season, and undisciplined, after a  6-1 start  went  just 3-3 at the finish line , and were smashed in their conference championship game by DDs vs an explosive FAU side.  However, UAB coach Clark’s has proven before that he can engineer a quick bounce back off defeat as is evident by a  12-4 SU and 11-3-1 ATS record in his career. Clark is 8-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival as the coach of UAB. 

 Blazers really need a good showing here after that above mentioned debacle in the CUSA championship game. This is a chance to do it by hanging tough against a ranked Appalachian State side, that despite of a great season,  are getting a very average Bowl show case that might not have them very excited to play in. Note: This also an easy trip for UAB fans so Im betting the majority of the crowd will be backing the Blazers, which will buoy their chances here two fold. 

CFB  Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (APPALACHIAN ST) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (80% or better ) playing a good team (60% to 80%). are 31-63 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UAB to cover 

Boise State has averaged 39.7 ppg on offence when travelling this season, and Im betting they do a fair amount of damage here today vs a downtrodden Huskies side, that had expected better results this season. Meanwhile, Washington in 9 games played on turf this season have averaged 34 ppg and have enough offensive weapons to answer back against the Broncos.  BOISE ST is 10-0 OVER L/10 in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) with a combined average of 76.3 ppg scored. Harsin is 12-4 OVER  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse as the coach of BOISE ST with the combined average score of 70.1 ppg scored.

CFB team against the total (BOISE ST) - in a game involving two good teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are 40-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

  Lane Kiffin has left the Florida Atlantic sidelines   but things are looking up as    Willie Taggart is about to take over. Add to that a new defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer stepping in for this game and  the Owls look like a football program with upside, and the ability to upend SMU here today. You have to remember, that FAU owns a big play attack with  and with SMU secondary  giving up 285 yards per game their vulnerable to be nipped here for big yards , gains and subsequent scores. on the flip side, Im betting the Mustangs will have problems running the ball vs a Owls team that have allowed fewer than 100 yards in five of their last ten games. If SMU cant run the ball, their passing game will be easier to read, and problems will arise as this tilt goes on. 

SMU is 0-6 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. SMU is 0-9 ATS  in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons.

FLA ATLANTIC is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Florida Atlantic to cover 

New Mexico Bowl - Dreamstyle Stadium - Albuquerque, NM

 C.Michigan have scored 45 or more points in 3 of their L/5 games, and despite of playing a very strong D here today, Im betting they will do enough damage to get this combined score over the total. Meanwhile, San Diego State despite of not being a strong offensive team, will also have to open up here a bit today , because as I mentioned above their going to get pierced for points more than usual. If Central Michigan has a weakness its this D, which is allowing 34. 8 ppg on the road. 

C MICHIGAN in their L/6  vs. average passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season with a  combined average of 58.3 ppg going on the board. 

CFB teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (SAN DIEGO ST) - after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning are 38-5 OVER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

New Mexico Bowl - Dreamstyle Stadium - Albuquerque, NM

Central Michigan comes into the New Mexico Bowl featuring a multi dimensional  offense. Chippewas running back Jonathan Ward has rushed for 1,082 yards along with hefty 6.2 yards per carry. His 15 touchdown runs rank third in the MAC. Meanwhile, Quarterback Quinten Dormady, a transfer from Tennessee, finished the regular season looked like a gunslinger. He completed 71 % or more of his pass attempts in the final three games leading into the MAC championship game, effectively spreading the ball among a number of pass-catchers. Im betting this group will test San Diego State sturdy D, alot more than recent opponents and make life difficult for a team that will be in an uncomfortable situation of having to open up . 

HC Rocky Long is just 4-9 ATS in his career in Bowl Games. 

C MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS vs. average passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.C MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS  after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games this season.

Play on Central Michigan to cover 

The Celebration Bowl is one of the most competitive bowl games on the schedule each year. Each Celebration Bowl has been decided by a touchdown or less. Last year the North Carolina A&T Aggies snuck past  Alcorn State Braves by the slimmest of margins  24-22. Looking at both teams numbers, from this season suggest both possesses balanced defences and offences and matchup well against each other in a game that should be a pickem, thus getting points makes for a solid wager according to my projections. 

Play on Alcorn State to cover 

Frisco Bowl - Toyota Stadium - Frisco, TX

Im betting on  a ok corral type blastem up offensive gunfight here in Texas this Friday between two teams with alot of offensive fire power capabilities. 

Utah State junior quarterback Jordan Love after passing for 8,283 yards and 57 touchdowns in three seasons with the Aggies, will be ready to showcase his talents for the upcoming NFL draft. QUOTE:"Knowing that it's my last game here as an Aggie, wearing that uniform, it's really important for me to just go out there and ball out," Love said, "and have fun with my brothers this last time." END QUOTE. Love has completed 263-of-434 passes for 3,085 yards and 17 touchdowns this season and more of the same is on tap today vs a Kent State team allowing more than 34.6 ppg away from home this season. Meanwhile, duel threat Kent State QB Junior quarterback Dustin Crum led the Golden Flashes in passing and rushing, throwing for 2,336 yards and 18 touchdowns, while rushing for 560 yards and five more scores and will once again Im betting take advantage of a Aggies D, that is less than strong allowing 31 + ppg on the road this season. With that said,  I expect both sides to surpass their offensive and defensive averages this season in an entertaining free for all offensive slugfest.  

Lewis in 9 games when the total is greater than or equal to 63 as the coach of KENT ST has seen a combined average of 66.9 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (UTAH ST/KENT ST) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP), in non-conference games are 44-16 OVER L/23 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

Bahamas Bowl - Thomas Robinson Stadium - Nassau,

CUSA’s record of 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS versus MAC opponents in Bowl games has me looking directly at a up trending Charlotte football program as viable underdogs here today in this Bowl game. Don't get me wrong Buffalo is a fine team and were 7-5 on the season, but they were far from perfect and periodically fell asleep at the proverbial wheel. Meanwhile, their opponents today the niners, finished their season in over powering fashion, going 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS, and 5-0 ITS and deserve respect here getting points. It must also be noted that Buffalo Bulls , HC  Leipold  is bankroll depleting  0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS away vs a above .500 team like Charlotte. 

BUFFALO is 2-14 ATS L/16 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHARLOTTE) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 38-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - LUCAS OIL STADIUM - INDIANAPOLIS, IN

Ohio State (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) leads the nation in points per game (49.9) and there maybe only one other team in the nation that can slow down this incredible offensive juggernaut and Wisconsin is not that team. With that said, I look for Wisconsin to try to reply with as much fire power through the air as they can muster, because running against one of the nations nastiest front 7 is a night mare, as was the case for star Badgers running back Jonathan Taylor in two previous encounters vs the Buckeyes including one this season when they lost 38-7. No way I can see them repeating that mistake as their only chance at victory is moving the ball downfield via their aerial attack, which in turn will open this game up and easily help it eclipse this total. 

 OHIO ST is 11-2 OVER  in road games when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 67.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM - CHARLOTTE, NC

Clemson Im betting will do their part here today, behind an explosive offence that averages 45.2 ppg.On the flip side,  I know Clemson has allowed only six touchdown passes all season but what is  important here in factoring in Virginias offensive production is that the Tigers have  not faced a dual threat quite like UVA senior quarterback Bryce Perkins, who leads the ACC and ranks 13th nationally in total offense (3,636 yards). He was responsible for 475 of the Cavaliers' 492 yards against the Hokies when he played them, and has the ability to make Clemsons D work harder than usual. 

Note: CLEMSON in their L/14 tilts vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons have scored average of 44.6 ppg. Meanwhile   CLEMSON L/140 games when they score 28 or more points have seen a combined average of 60 ppg go on the board. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (CLEMSON) - after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 25-7 OVER  L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

AMERICAN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

The Tigers closed -14   against Cincinnati in their meeting last week, and despite of not covering looked like the far superior side. Now on a single digit line their is value with the favorite in the rematch. I know quarterback Desmond Ridder is back for the Bearcats but he was highly erratic in recent starts and is still dealing with a shoulder injury that is less than 100% healed. I must also be noted that Cincinnati has lost the stats battles in 8 of their 12 games this season , including 1-7 ITS the last eight overall tilts and over rated in my humble opinion at this juncture of the season. Note: MEMPHIS is 10-2 ATS L/12 in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Memphis to cover 

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - AT&T STADIUM - ARLINGTON, TX

No. 6 Oklahoma (11-1, 8-1 in Big 12 play) and No. 7 Baylor (11-1, 8-1) will square off for all the marbles on Saturday afternoon at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas in a game I have pegged to be all out offensive rodeo affair.  I know Baylor is a top tier defensive side, but the Sooners can score on any team with a rapid fire run and gun offence that features the  Big 12's top scoring offense (44.3 points per game; No. 5 nationally)   The Sooners also rank first in the country in total offense (564.3 yards per game). To beat the Sooners Baylor is thus going to have to open up and respond with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown of the field. The Bears can do that vs a Sooner D, that ha shown some weaknesses this season, as was the case vs Iowa State allowing 41 points and Kstate allowing 48 points in their game against Baylor 31 points in a game that saw 65 totals points scored.

OKLAHOMA is 6-0 OVER  after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 85.5 ppg. 

Play OVER 

 When these teams met earlier this season in Waco the Bears built a  28-3 lead against the Sooners, but blew that lead as the Sooners woke up and won 34-31. Now in this championship game Oklahoma will be fully focused and be ready for this tilt and will be prepared for a fast start and keep the pedal to the proverbial metal from start to finish. The Sooners football program owns a 9-1 record and 8-2 ATS mark in big 12 championship games.The  favorite is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS the last nine tilts  in this event. Also recently the Sooners are 11-2 ATS  as single-digit chalk.  The Sooners also have the motivation of getting the final and 4th spot in the college football play off, but their victory has to be convincing to beat out a impressive Utah side and will be merciless here if up.

CFB team (BAYLOR) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are 37-78 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 68% conversion rate.

Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover 

 Billy Napier, UL Lafayette is a highly under rated team and from a bettors perspective an ATN machine cashing   18 of 25 times for a 72 % conversion rate for bettors. I know App State is nationally ranked side, but when these teams played earlier this season the Cajuns stayed with them almost every step of the way and the 17-7 ,  10 point margin of victory for the Mountaineers was a little misleading. Since that above mentioned loss to App State , the Cajuns have reeled off 6 straight wins and must not be underestimated in their ability to cash a ticket for us today on what is now a bloated line according to my projections. 

LA LAFAYETTE is 10-1 ATS  after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games which was the case last time out vs UL Monroe. 

APPALACHIAN ST is 4-14 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight conference games.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA LAFAYETTE) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UL Lafayette to cover 

UCLA was up-trending until a recent two game road trip settled their season, and bowl chances as they were hammered by USC and Utah in back to back tilts. It must be noted UCLA is 8-19 ATS  after a 2 game road trip since 1992. Now downtrodden and emotionally let down Im betting they dont have much left in the tank to take on a tough California Bears team, that now has their strong signal caller Chase Gerber  back under center. With California needing a win for a Bowl appearance and revenge on their minds for a loss last season to the Bruins as 7 points favs, Im betting a strong motivated  California performance. UCLA is 0-5-1 ATS L/6 final home games. 

Play on California to cover 

Nevada is off a big upset win vs Fresno State on the road last week and have won 3 straight, and now have momentum coming home on senior day vs instate rivals UNLV. The Pack will be primed and motivated to also take the Fremont Cannon. The Wolf Pack have won four of its five games in Mackay Stadium this season,   including a win vs Big 10 opponent  Purdue by a  34-31, count, and a very viable team to back here this Saturday. 

CFB  home team vs. the money line (NEVADA) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog are 33-1 L/27 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +25 ppg. 

Nevada to cover 

Rice has won 2 straight games entering this tilt, and have momentum and confidence on their sides. I know Rice struggled for most of the season, but during their campaign they have shown flashes of brilliance and were up-trending in my power rankings and deserve their road favrote status here today. UTEP is 2-9 ATS  in home games over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -13.6 ppg. 

CFB Road favorites  (RICE) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 37-1  L/5 seasons and 15-0 SU this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg, 

Play on Rice to cover 

New Mexico State is a team that has not won on the road yet this season, and have been outscored by a 123-48 count in their L/3 away tilts. Today  Im betting they get clobbered again vs an explosive up-trending Liberty football program putting more than 35 ppg on the board this season. Note: NM St has allowed more than 40 ppg on average. 

NEW MEXICO ST is 4-15 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons and is 2-10 ATS  as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. with the average ppg diff clicking in at -29.5 ppg.

CFB Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - an average offensive team (21 to 28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG), after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-10 L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Liberty to cover 

Since losing  QB Sean Chambers for the season, the Cowboys justdont have much offensive flow they need to be competitive .  Their D, remains stout, but against a team like Air Force that can put points on the board against the best of Ds. their in trouble. 

Calhoun is 7-0 ATS  in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry as the coach of AIR FORCE. 

CFB Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (AIR FORCE) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Air Force to cover  

Michigan finally looks prepared to move forward and get a win vs unbeaten Ohio State  this week as underdogs behind the arm of Shea Patterson and a defence that is playing its best football of the season. I know the Buckeyes have won 7 straight meetings in this series, but after watching Michigan play some amazing football of late, including last weeks DD blowout of Indiana  Michigan looks  very capable. Last year Ohio State humiliated , the Wolverines in a 62-39 smash down and now revenge is also in play.  Note: The under dog  is 5-1 ATS  last 6 meetings, and HC  Jim Harbaugh is 5-0-1 ATS as a Big Ten circuit getting points at home  of more than 5 points, and has cashed  in 5 of his L/6 with conference revenge.It must also noted that  undefeated road chalk in their final game of the campaign has won just 5 of 16 tilts  SU and are just  3-13 ATS when facing .700 or greater opposition. 

MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS  in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.

CFB  Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 38-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan to cover

Lovie Smith has done a fine job with Illinois , but with his top QB Brandon Peters injured or less than 100% which put the team at a disadvantage. Peters started 10 of the 11 games. Look for Northwestern dominating front 7 to the work needed to slow Illinois and for us to get the cover .

NORTHWESTERN is 22-10 ATS L/32 in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.

ILLINOIS is 1-9 ATS in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. Northwestern has won 4 straight meetings, and have owned the Land of Lincoln trophy and wont relinquish it without a fight.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NORTHWESTERN) - in a game involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games are 57-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Northwestern to cover

The battle of I-4 goes this Friday between instate rivals UCF and USF. Charlie Strongs Bulls wont be going Bowling this season,so this esentially is their big game of the campaign, and Im betting they will muster a way to stay competetive and get the cover against a a good but defensively challenged Knights side that allows more than 28 ppg. 

S FLORIDA is 18-6 ATS L/24  in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.S FLORIDA is 16-4 ATS L/20  after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half.Strong is 22-5 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (S FLORIDA) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 102 -57 L/27 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on South Florida to cover

Troy looked horrendous last week, in a 53-3 loss vs UL Lafayette on the road and was most probably in a look ahead situation knowing App State was up next and also regressing after some record setting offensive performances. This Friday however, Im looking on a giant bounce back effort, behind the arm of .QB Kaleb Barker  who was held without a touchdown pass for the first time this season in the Louisiana game.

I know Cincinnati has not looked its best over the last couple of weeks, especially on offence, but their D is of the top tier variety nationally and are hard to beat, even when taking on an explosive offence like Memphis that  ranks Top 10 nationally in points (42.2) and yards per game (488.2). This Cincinnati team has won 9 straight SU, with their only loss coming against Ohio State , and must not be underestimated as DDs here in Memphis today. 

CINCINNATI is 16-4 ATS in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games.

MEMPHIS is 0-7 ATS off 2 consecutive road wins.

CFB Road underdogs (CINCINNATI) - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (80%or more ) are 29-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

Iowa earned a 31-28 win over the Cornhuskers last year in Iowa City and Im betting on another closely contested affair here that will see me back Nebraska getting points at home. Because this game comes on a Friday,  and both sides having only had 6 days to prepare , this is a a situation that  favors the home side. 

This tilt is of ultra importance to this Nebraska football program as a win here would get them a bowl game, and give credence to HC Frosts  tenure and his teams progression upwards in the Big 10. Everything will be left on the field today in Lincoln by the Cornhuskers. 

Play on Nebraska to cover 

 Missouri has lost five in a row while losing the stats wars n all 5 tilts  and needs a win to get a lower tier  Bowl appearance.  They have shown little motivation recently and I doubt we will see them put together some pride here . Meanwhile, Arkansas are not much better at  just 2-9 SU on the season, but, from a long term betting perspective are 18-8 ATS as conference home dogs of  17 or less points. Last year Missouri clobbered the Razorbacks by a 38-0 count so Im betting on revenge and redemption to go hand and hand here with a strong effort from Hogs  here tonight in Little Rock. 

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Kent State has fought hard to make it to a point in the season where they can  get a bowl appearance with a win today thanks some surprising wins . But it must be noted that Kent States football program has not travelled well of late losing 19 of their L/21 away from home.  Its been a real uphil battle for the Flashes, and Im betting they are most probably out of gas, and very much vulnerable to getting steamrolled vs a team ready to notch their 4th straight home coming event and a 7win season that will buoy them to a possible Bowl invite. E MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return over the last 2 seasons. 

CFB Home favorites  (E MICHIGAN) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 39-2 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18 ppg. 

CFB team (KENT ST) - good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 9-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on E.Michigan to cover 

The Ole Miss Rebels have revenge on board for last seasons Nasty and merciless 35-3 beatdown at the hands of Mississippi State and have had this revenge scenario circled on their calendars for a long time now. It must be noted that the Rebs  are 13-4 SU / ATS when playing with revenge in this series, and Im betting they cover again and also look lie viable SU winner here as well. 

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 7-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover

Hawaii as a favorite vs this type of tough defence that San Diego State has is a go against situation for me. Whenever a top tier offence  like the Warriors  goes up against a top tier D like the Aztecs, Im almost always taking the defence as long as the math behind the play makes sense.Hawaii is 2-15-1 ATS in its last eighteen games as a favorite and  is  4-18-1 ATS, 1-11 ATS at home, and 3-15 SU against San Diego State over the last 23 head to head meetings which is not s good omen for a Hawaii team that upset Rocky Longs side in his last game of the season last year.  Now with revenge on board  I look for the Aztecs to be fully awake and ready for payback on paradise island this Saturday night. Note: Hawaiis HC Nick Rolovich is 0-9-1 ATS L/10 as a home favourite. 

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Utah State QB  junior Jordan Love,  departed last Saturday's victory over Wyoming with an undisclosed injury and rumors are he wont start today, which significantly gives Boise State an edge here on the road tonight. Meanwhile, the status , Bosie State QBs looks more positive as as capable second-stringer Chase Cord (670 yards, nine touchdowns, three interceptions) is listed as probable .

Harsin is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFBFavorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BOISE ST) - excellent offensive team (440  or more YPG) against a poor defense (390 to 440 YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 37-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boise State to cover 

The Sooners have pounded TCU the last 3 times they have met them by scores of 52-27, 41-17, and 38-20 and Im betting on a repeat performance here this Saturday. The one game that the Frogs looked bad in this year was against Iowa State losing a 49-27 beat down, and this is another bad matchup for TCU according to my power rankings .  

OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS  in home games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking at +39.4 ppg. 

TCU is 2-10 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Home favorites  (OKLAHOMA) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 27-1 SU L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff of +20 going on the board. 

Play on Oklahoma to cover 

Temples last two losses have come to UCF and SMU both by DD deficits and my own personal opinion is that they are over rated. Now they go against a team that is every bit as good as those two teams and maybe even better from a all around perspective. With that said, Im betting on the Bearcats to proverbially eat the Owls alive here and take this tilt in convincing fashion, much to a chagrin of a public that believes Temple is an elite team. I know Temple has won the last two meetings in this series SU, in 2017, and 2018 but those incarnations of those football programs are vastly different than this version of each team. Add to that a revenge scenario and the Bearcats look like solid choices at anything under -10 points. 

CFB home team (CINCINNATI) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog are 32-1 SU L/27 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +24.7 ppg.

Play on the Cincinnati to cover 

 Florida Atlantic has won 4 straight ATS/SU on the road behind an explosive offence and enter into this game looking to finsih strong and are still in the fight for the Conference USA East title .With tha said, Im betitng the Owls  will be primed to perform here this week vs a UTSA side with not enough fire power to compete or even give their supporters a back door cover.
 HC  Owlsley  is 3-1-1 ATS all-time as double-digit road favorite.  .

Play on FAU to cover 

 TROY is heating up and off huge back to back wins behind the arm of QB Kaleb Barker who has passed  for nearly 700 yards and 9 TDs vs Georgia Southern and Texas State . Troy is now  5-5 on the season, and need one win to get a Bowl game and will leave everything on the field  again this week vs UL Lafayette side that allowed S.Alabama to roll over them last week for 458 yards.  The Trojans have covered in five of the last six road tilts in this series  and get my support again taking points in a key game for them. 

Play on Troy to cover

Quarterback Ian Book etched his name into the Notre Dame annals last week, setting a school record with his third game of the season with at least five touchdown passes and Im betting he keeps trucking along this week vs a inconsistent Boston College secondary in what Im betting will be a big DD victory for the Catholic boys. I know Boston College is off a rest week, but that still wont save them vs a side ready to celebrate a senior day victory. 

NOTRE DAME is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff registering at +24.8. 

CFB home team  (NOTRE DAME) - a top caliber team (14 or more  PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 5 PPG diff.) after 7 or more games, after scoring 50 points or more last game are 27-1 L/27 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with ppg diff clicking  in a +24.7. 

Play on Notre Dame to cover 

The GT Yellow Jackets have opened as a small favorite in this matchup despite of some of their inadequacies . They had played 3 tough games, against Duke, Pittsburgh, and Miami, and than beatenn and battered were clobbered by VTech 45-0  last time out. Now its bounce back time for the  under rated Ramblin reck.  It must be noted that the NC State Wolfpack have  lost all four of their road games this season by an average of 22.5 PPG . It's become obvious that the Wolfpack  seem ill prepared to play their opposition away from home and are fade material here in this spot vs a side that needs redemption badly. 

NC STATE is 0-6 ATS vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons.NC STATE is 0-6 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

NC STATE is 0-8 ATS L/8 after 5 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnover.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NC STATE) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 8-27 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on GTech to cover 

The Bobcats hopes for a MAC title or anything even close to that ranking  were  put to end over the last couple of  weeks thanks  in part to a porous defence. Now they are being made 21 point chalk. The line is viable, but the Bobcats motivational stimulus is not there , which makes taking the points a investment option.OHIO U is 0-7 ATS   as a favorite this season.OHIO U is 9-21 ATS  in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992. I know Bowling Green does not inspire most bettors, but they have shown flashes of life of late with wins vs Toledo and Akron of late. 

Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.Bobcats are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Bobcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Bowling Green.Bobcats are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 meetings.

Play on Bowling Green to cover 

  Eastern Michigan  has shown itself to have a porous D, but N.Illinois is highly inconsistent and if it were not for big plays they would be a stagnant offence. Eastern Michigan’s defense  has limited big plays  bad,  ranking  43rd in defending explosive plays. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois is strong at controlling opposing run games, but weak in the secondary, however, Eastern Michigan has not been consistent through the air, even though their numbers look decent . Overall, the combination of the above factors have me taking an under stance here on a slightly bloated total. Note: N ILLINOIS is 33-17 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game . N ILLINOIS is 11-1 UNDER  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992 with a combined average of 45.1 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (E MICHIGAN) - good passing team - averaging 255 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 45-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

LSU after a monumental win vs Alabama last week, will now find themselves in an emotional letdown spot vs a Mississippi program, that needs two wins before the reg season ends to become Bowl eligible. After a week of celebrating the Tigers hangover is real, and mustering the energy to play at 100% will be nearly impossible if improbable which opens up the door for a motivated home dog that has cashed in  4 of their L/5 at home vs .850 or better opposition to get us the cover. Note: Underdogs who win matchups of 6-0 or better teams  are 0-6 ATS in the followup as favorites of 21 or less points since 1980. 

 LSU is 2-10 ATS L/12 off an upset win as a road underdog.

CFB team (OLE MISS) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 92-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover

The under achieving Cardinals lost in Colorado in their last game 16-13. But its important to note Stanfords coach Shaw  in his career has been  a bounce back specialist to the extreme, as his team when coming off a SU favorite loss, are 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS , including 15-0 ATS the last fifteen tilts .  With Stanford  getting double digits on the road Saturday we have a value side to bet into vs a Washington State side, that despite of owning a top tier offence, also have a horrendous D and because of this , sit at the bottom of the PAC 12 North. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and Im betting will get the cheese again.

STANFORD is 23-9 ATS  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more  yards/game .

STANFORD is 7-3 straight up against WASHINGTON ST since 1992.

CFB team (WASHINGTON ST) - excellent offensive team (6.2  or more YPP) against a team with a struggling defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 8-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB team (WASHINGTON ST) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against an average offensive team (330-390 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 13-41 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Stanford to cover 

Minnesota has surprised alot of pundits this season, and are now 9-0 on the season after beating a very good Penn State team last week. The Gophers were sky higher for that game, and left everything on the field and now a natural regression and emotional let down situation  is at hand here in Iowa this Saturday. Note: College Football 8-0 or better away teams off a double-digit ATS win as an underdog are 0-6 ATS dating back 37 seasons.

IOWA is 20-7 ATS L/27 vs. explosive offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game.

OWA is 11-1 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1992.

CFB team (MINNESOTA) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team ( 80% or more ) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 17-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa to cover 

HC Nick Rolovich,  of Hawaii is 1-12-1 ATS as a favourite in his tenure with the  Paradise Island football program and is once again laying points here on the road at UNLV.  I know the Rebels may not inspire bettors but they did upset SEC opponent Vanderbilt earlier this season, and on occasion have shown flashes of brilliance , so they truly are not as bad some think, just very inconsistent .  Meanwhile, HC Sanchez has seen his Sin City team cash at a 4-0-1 ATS rate in the last 5 meetings. I know the Warriors can really do some offensive damage , but as good as their attack is their defence is equally horrendous and have allowed an average  510 YPG over the last five tilts, and ripe to take on more punishment here against a team desperate for positive results. 

Play on UNLV to cover 

Auburn is  being under rated here vs what my projections are currently telling me is  a slightly over rated Georgia Buldogs team that had numerous injuries last week in their game against Missouri. The Tigers have been strong at home this season with a 4-0 record, and lost by just 3 points to new SEC power house LSU and deserve out respect here as home dogs. 

AUBURN is 11-1 ATS  in home games vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game and is15-1 ATS in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game.

Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn is 10-0 SU with rest in conference games in his career, as well as 8-0 SU off a bye versus unrested opponents.

Play on Auburn to cover 

Alabama is off a disheartening loss to LSU at home last week,  which will have the Crimson Tide in an emotional letdown situation, as DD road chalk, which has me backing the home dog in this spot.

ALABAMA is 1-8 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more  rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.

Saban is 4-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses as the coach of ALABAMA.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 13-4 ATS in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons

Crimson Tide are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.Crimson Tide are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.Crimson Tide are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Crimson Tide are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.Bulldogs are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

CFB home team (MISSISSIPPI ST) - good rushing team (190-230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 80-38 ATS L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Mississippi State to cover 

The Gators smashed  visiting Vanderbilt 56-0 last weekend, and come in here with revenge on their minds for losses to Missouri in each of the past two seasons. The Tigers won 45-16 at home in 2017 before prevailing 38-17 in The Swamp last season. However, this Gators team is different from those groups, as this team can put points up in bunches averaging 33.3 ppg. Today I expect very little mercy from Florida as they pile up the points, and for Missouri to finally wake up from a recent ugly 3 game road trip where their usually efficient offence went to sleep. Here at home where the Tigers thrive ( 5-0) Missouri has averaged 40.4 ppg and a rebound is expected as QB Kelly Bryant returns to the lineup.  (The graduate transfer from Clemson missed last week's loss at Georgia after suffering a hamstring injury two weeks earlier at Kentucky.)Bryant has completed 140 of 225 passes (62.2 percent) for 1,845 yards, 14 touchdowns and five interceptions in eight games this season. 

Note: My projections estimate that Florida will score 28+ points. FLORIDA is 7-0 OVER  in road games when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 61.2 ppg going on the score board.

Offensively, Florida averages 419.5 yards (ranked 56th nationally), while Missouri is at 402.9 yards per game (72nd nationally).

FLORIDA is 6-0 OVER as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 59.5 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

San Diego State is off a ugly loss toNevada last week. Rocky Long in my opinion has one his very few sub par teams, even though the pundits would disagree with me. As usual the defence is staunch, but when you can only muster an average of  20.8 PPG (112th nationally) you have problems. Im betting on a talented Fresno State side to do some damage here this week via a run game that averages 5.3 ypc, and for the Aztecs to continue to struggle putting points on the board.

FRESNO ST is 8-0 ATS  against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. 

FRESNO ST is 12-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons and have cashed 13 of their L/17 ATS on the road.FRESNO ST is 10-1 ATS  in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

 DIEGO ST is 1-8 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO ST is 2-9 ATS in home lined games over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Fresno State to cover 

I know LA Techs  Skip Holtz is known as  a cover machine, as an underdog and is on a 8 game win streak overall and obviously red hot, but Marshall is no push overs and the most physical team in the CUSA holding opponents to 3.8 ypc. This Thunder Hered team must be respected here as short faves as Marshall can clinch the East with a win tonight. 

CFB (LOUISIANA TECH) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 17-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 

 Pittsburgh at home this season has averaged just 19.1 ppg on offence with the Defense allowing just 20.8 ppg. Pittsburgh has set the pace of late, and Im betting nothing changes here this week vs North Carolina in what Im betting will be grinding affair. 

N CAROLINA is 22-9 UNDER  vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att.

PITTSBURGH is 7-0 UNDER after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored.

PITTSBURGH is 12-3 UNDER  in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 46 ppg scored. 

 teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (PITTSBURGH) - after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning are 69-32 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Kent State enters this game against Buffalo showing signs of improvement on offence, and overall have averaged 34.7 ppg at home this season behind the arm of QB Duston Crumb and viable run game. Meanwhile the Flashes  D, especially their run defence, has been a shambles , allowing 300+ yards to Toledo last week, and ranking  123rd in opponent rushing success rate. Buffalo’s rushing attack, which ranks 52nd in success rate Im betting has a big day , and that in turn will open up more downfield options and big plays for the Bulls. Look for both sides to light up the board tonight in MAC action. 

BUFFALO is 8-1 OVER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 75.5 ppg scored.BUFFALO is 9-0 OVER  after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 59.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER 

 The Ohio University Bobcats  are 3-2 in the East Division of the MAC. and are not out of contention for their division as they enter this tilt against Western Michigan. However, to achieve their goal this is a must win situation vs a side Im betting they matchup well against especially here at home.

The Bobcats offense gets the job done , and while not spectacular are consistent averaging 29 points per game, which ranks 65th in the nation. Ohio averages 407 total yards per game, which ranks 67th in the nation. That includes 208 ypg in the air ( 89th in the nation,(  and 198 ypg on the ground (37th in the country). Defensively, the Bobcats allow 29 points per game, which is 78th in the nation.  

Western Michigan has averaged 36 ppg, and really rumble on the ground, but the same holds true for Ohio. I look for both sides to pound away with their ground games, but for Ohio to make a couple of more key stops on their own home field and to come out on top. Note: Western Michigan is 0-4 on the road this season, and are not performing at the same level they are at home.

Play on Ohio to cover 

Akron has shown zip this season, (excuse the pun) they have been horrendous and  have failed to win or even cover any of their first 9 games, thanks mostly to an undeniably bad offence. However, their defence is viable, and are only allowing 5.4 ypp, ranking in the top-60 nationally. Meanwhile, E.Michigan D, is not as good as Akrons, allowing  6.2 ypp and 4.8 yards per rush. On a night that is supposed to see bad weather in Akron, Im betting the Zips can run the ball down the throat of porous run D, and do enough damage offensively behind their only real offensive dual threat QB Kato Nelson, and get us the cover. Lets be brave here , and take the points.

E MICHIGAN is 10-22 ATS after allowing 37 points or more in 2 straight games.

Creighton is 2-9 ATS when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less ) as the coach of E MICHIGAN.

CFB Road favorites (E MICHIGAN) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 34-70 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Akron to cover 

After getting upset by Kansas State two weeks ago, there has been alot of soul searching in Sooner land , and now well rested , Im expecting them to come out here and be fired up and ready to lay a beatdown on their visiting conference foes this week Iowa State. Note: Oklahoma is 26-11 ATS as conference home fav of 14 or fewer points, and 36-0 SU and 25-10 ATS during the regular season when coming off a loss since 1999. Oklahoma has not beat anybody of note other than Texas, and they need a big win here to prove their the real deal to the committee, and while the Hawkeyes are no pushovers, Im betting they do end up as sacrificial lambs this week in a bad situational spot. 

OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +29.7 ppg.

CFB Home favorites (OKLAHOMA) - excellent offensive team (440  or more YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive game are 64-22 L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma to cover 

BYU is off back to back big wins vs Utah State and Bosie State the last two weeks, and could easily find themselves in an emotional letdown state vs a side they maybe overlooking. Im betting on senior QB Steven Calvert, who has compiled over 11,000 passing yards in his career, to be the key catalyst behind a cover here today for a Bowl eligible Liberty team that has scored 59 or more points three times this season already. 

BYU is 10-22 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game

CFB Road underdogs (LIBERTY) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG), after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 44-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Liberty to cover 

Could this finally be a turning of the guard in the SEC? Quite possibly yes, but as far as we are concerned covering is much more important. Alabama has dominated this conference for so long, its hard to bet against them. However, LSU is the real deal, both on defence and offence, and are more than capable of hanging tough here vs conference gridiron gods the Crimson Tide. It must be noted that No. 1 ranked teams are 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS since 1981, including 8-0 SUATS as a dog. The Boyou Tigers fit the bill and have the guns to deliver the cash this Saturday. Last season Saban and company pasted the Tigers 29-0 and now with revenge on board LSU will be breathing Cajun fire knowing they are 5-1 ATS L/6 with conference revenge and 5-2 ATS vs undefeated opposition. Note: Alabama is just 3-10 ATS L/13 as 10 point or less conference favs. 

Look for Joe Burrow to outduelAlabama QB Tua Tagovailoa. 

Take the points with LSU 

  Georgia Southern now playing back to back road tilts  is off a huge  upset of Appalachian State last week and Im betting they will be in a letdown situation here this Saturday vs a Trojans team off a tough loss last week and now ready to get back into the win column on their own home field. Im betting Troys QB Kaleb Barker will take advantage of a week Georgia Southern pass D. Troys air attack has been extremely strong this season, and we will see that here today. Note:( Troy has had back to back 500 yard offensive outputs both on the road)

 Meanwhile, Troy’s  run D will get tested again this week for the 2nd straight time and they will be ready and fresh to handle that pressure because of the constant exposure to a ground attack. Coastal Carolina was able to upset Troy last week, because of their ability to balance their run game with key passes, something Georgia Southern just cant do. Note: Georgia Southern is highly over rated as they have been outscored and out yarded this season, and despite of up trending are a little over rated here in this spot a road chalk)

Georgia Southern is 3-7 ATS L/10 as road favourites.

Troy has won 17 of their L/23 SU at home. 

Home coming side gets it done today plus the points,

Take Troy to cover 

BC has been uptrending on my power rankings for a while now, and after accumulating a  school record 691 yards in offence last week in a DD blasting of Syracuse they enter this game with a great deal of momentum. Meanwhile, Florida State their visiting opponents can be best described as inconsistent and now completely lost without fired head Coach Will Taggart. Advantage Boston College.

Seminoles are 1-8-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Seminoles are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Seminoles are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.

Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Eagles are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Eagles are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a ATS win.Eagles are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games on fieldturf.Eagles are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Eagles are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.Eagles are 39-17-2 ATS in their last 58 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

 CFB Home favorites  (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 36-1 SU L/10 seasons and a perfect 5-0 SU this season! 

Play on Boston College to cover 

The Golden Gophers are averaging 39.9 points and 446.9 total yards per game and have the ability to make the Penn State defence very hard to keep them under control. Im betting the Golden Gophers, who rank 24th in the nation with 232.0 rushing yards per game, to give the Nittany Lions top tier run D all they can handle on their way to a cover for the 6th straight time.

PENN ST is 4-14 ATS L/18  in road games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 285  or less yards/game. PENN ST is 7-23 ATS L/30 in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game. Franklin is 8-17 ATS  when the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of PENN ST.

Nittany Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.

MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS L/12 after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games. Fleck is 23-9 ATS  after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached.

Golden Gophers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games.Golden Gophers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Home team is 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CFB home team vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more PPG) against an excellent defensive team (16 or less PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 26-6 SU L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB  home team (MINNESOTA) - good rushing team (190-230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) after 7+ games, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game.are 50-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Golden Gophers to cover 

I know alot of pundits might think that Washington is washed up and an emotional let down state after losing to Utah last time out, for their third home loss this season.... their most in in 4 years. However, it most be noted that Oregon State despite of up trending, just dont matchup well here vs a unfortunate but very good Huskies team that might want to get the pundits off their backs by taking out their frustrations on Beavers. Im betting on Huskies QB Eason to pick apart the Beavers pass defense wit big play after big play.  Washington is 22nd in the country in passing explosiveness and Oregon State is 126th at defending it. The Beavers rank outside the top 110 in opponent rush and pass explosiveness and look like fodder for a angry and downtrodden group this Friday night. 

Play on Washington to cover 

There is value here on the under according to my projections which make this game total closer to 64 than the current number of 69. WE all know how explosive UCFs offence is, but Tulsa  behind a much  improved 3-3-5 defense that ranks 22nd in opponent passing success rate  and  ranks 29th in opponent red zone scoring and will  not be easily stomped on. This Im betting cues the total towards the under. Note:UCF i L/15  road games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less ) has seen a combined average of 54.9 ppg scored. Also Philip is 9-1 UNDER in home games after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of TULSA with a combined average score of 59.2 ppg going on the board.

Play UNDER 

The Temple Owls enter this game off a bye week, but prior to their break, they allowed  an average 45.3 PPG and 587 YPG in their last three tilts, which had me believing that they are highly over rated especially on D. Meanwhile, USF has won 3 of their L/4 and up trending and needs wins badly to become bowl eligible and will be ready to play a big game here tonight vs a program they have beaten in 3 of their L/4 meetings including the two most recent matchups as hosts. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEMPLE) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-70 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (S FLORIDA) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 27-6 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on USF to cover 

 Miami has proven highly inconsistent of offense ranking 126th in rushing success rate and 116th in passing success rate. Meanwhile, Ohio's offence generates it most effective results when they run the ball, and today I expect that to be their main modus operandi , which in turn will keep the clock ticking . The above combination Im betting results in a score that remains on the low side of this total . 

MIAMI OHIO is 31-10 UNDER struggling  defensive teams - allowing 425  or more yards/game with a combined average of 48.8 ppg scored. 

Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

CFB Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OHIO U) - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 102-55 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 Im not sold on Oregon and believe their being over hyped by the media.  The Ducks have recently struggled defensively against air raid offenses like USC owns and have really showed some serious cracks in their secondary.  Oregons last  two games,  they were really blown up and had to make comebacks to win those tilts , by a combined 6 points. So tonight against an elite group of USC receivers, the Ducks Im betting are in trouble . On D, Im also believe more strongly than most in the Trojans D is a quality group. Note:USC is 10th in opponent red zone touchdown scoring and own  a top-20 rank in points allowed per red zone trip.

The Trojans are 16-6-1 ATS as home underdogs, including 9-1 ATS if they won .625 or less win percentage.

CFB road team (OREGON) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 42-84 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the USC Trojans to cover 

Utahs top tier  defence is relentless but they don't get alot of sacks. Tonight I betting Washingtons QB Eason will have time to operate and generate alot more scoring chances then the public and lines-makers are estimating. Im not underestimating how good a team the Utes, have and respect them greatly but my power ranking suggest that the Huskies matchup well against the Utes. Last season the Utes lost twice to Washington  , once as hosts  (in their only home loss of the campaign) and then in the rematch in the Pac-12 title game, scoring a lowly 10 combined points in those defeats. It must be noted HC Chris Peterson is much maligned, for his under performing ways,  and will now be operating in desperation mode under what could easily be his last stand. The wagons are  circled and the plans are in place, and I expect a huge effort from the under valued  home side in this spot. 

Since 2005, a Top 10 ranked team like Utah vs an unranked team like the Huskies off a loss & the line is 5 or less is just 1-13 SU.

CFB  team (UTAH) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team ( 80%) or better  playing a good team (60% to 80%) is 16-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Huskies to cover 

TIAA Bank Field - Jacksonville, FL

The Gators (7-1, 4-1 SEC) and Bulldogs (6-1, 3-1) both are ranked among the nation's Top 10 for a second straight meeting. GEORGIA is 11-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons

Georgia's Jake Fromm will start against Florida for the third consecutive year after directing victories in 2017 (42-7) and last season (36-17). The junior quarterback has completed 70.7 percent of his passes (123 of 174) this season for 1,406 yards, with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Im betting he is key to a victory here vs a a up-trending but not quite ready for prime time Florida side. 

Keys on Defence favors Georgia:Defensively, the Bulldogs rank seventh overall by allowing 266.7 yards; the Gators are 25th while allowing 319.5ypg. Florida ranks ninth with 29 sacks (3.63 average), while Georgia is fifth against the run (85.7 yards per game).

Smart is 9-1 ATS  in road games after a win by 21 or more points as the coach of GEORGIA. ( Georgia 21 Kentucky 0 last time out )

Play on Georgia to cover 

Kansas State played an amazing game last week in a huge upset win vs Oklahoma. Now Im betting they will be in a huge emotional letdown situation vs a up trending Kansas side and very vulnerable. It must also be noted that Kansas State has lost the stat wars in 5 straight games, and own the No. 129th Red Zone Defense in the nation, and are highly over rated despite of their  media blitzed accomplishments. Im betting on QB Carter Stanley to add to his  900 yards in his last three games and 13 touchdowns with a primo effort here in a tilt that could feature a SU upset, but more importantly as far as we are concerned a Jayhawks cover. 

KANSAS is 12-3 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.

CFB home team (KANSAS) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against an average defense (330 to 390 YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 23-3 SU L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas to cover 

The Thundering Herd are proving themselves highly inconsistent and a team that plays down their competition consistently. Note: Marshall is just  12-26-4 ATS as road favourite against below .500 opposition  .With a big time battle in the  C-USA West division  on the horizon vs No.1 Louisiana Tech  a full concentrated effort vs a team like Rice with no victories is a high probability. The Owls cannot get over the hump, but they are an improved team, that has suffered 4 losses by 10 points or less and viable Home Coming underdogs here this Saturday afternoon. 

MARSHALL is 0-6 ATS  when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 2 seasons and is 0-6 ATS when playing on a Saturday this season and is also 0-6 ATS  after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Rice to cover 

Old Dominion enters this tilt against Florida International with just one victory this season and that came  against Norfolk State in their opener,. Currently on a 7 game losing streak, things don't look to get much better for a side just going through the motions, as they face a team that needs wins to get a Bowl game invite. Im betting the Monarchs128th offence that averages. only 14.5 PPG will be on the wrong side of a big time beatdown. ODU is 0-6 ATS L/6 as underdogs of 15 points or more and another negative output Is my bet today.

Wilder is 7-16 ATS  as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of OLD DOMINION with the average ppg diff clicking in at -23.4 ppg. 

CFB road team (OLD DOMINION) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games against opponent after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games are 10-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida International to cover 

Since 2014 the  Central Michigan Chips have been NIU’s kryptonite and have won four of the last five and Im betting they find a way to turn the trick again. 

Meanwhile, Quinten Dormady will once again take the snaps for the Chips in place of David Moore, starting his fourth game in a row. Dormady has completed 63.7% of his passes this season for 1022 yards. He is backed by  Jonathan Ward who is one of the best running backs in the MAC. He’s averaging 6.8 yards per carry and has 725 yards and nine touchdowns on the campaign. I am expecting the Chips to do more damage then the linesmakers expect vs a banged up NIU defence and get us the cover here today. 

C MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (C MICHIGAN) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 36-1 SU L/10seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Central Michigan to cover 

The Eagles currently on a 3 game win streak are 16-point underdogs entering the rivalry game,  at the time of my selection. GS  is the last team to take down App State by a a 34-14 shocker on Oct. 25, 2018. Since losing to the Eagles over a year ago, App has rolled off 13 straight victories. 

Can  Georgia Southern turn the trick again. Well I don't know , but I do believe according to my projections that we have value at two TDs or more with a Eagles side, that actually has the type of team that an make the Mounties work hard for a win.Georgia Southern ranks No. 7 nationally in rushing offense (259.9 yards per game),  and hardly ever throw. So we all know what's coming at App State , but that still does not make it an easy task for the Mountaineers. 

Look for this big time rivalry to be a physical hard fought battle that will be won on the ground. 

CFB  road team (GA SOUTHERN) - average defensive team (330-390 YPG) against a good defensive team (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 35-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (GA SOUTHERN) - off a home win by 17 points or more against opponent off a double digit road win are 40-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home favorites (APPALACHIAN ST) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, undefeated on the season are 17-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover 

No. 12 Baylor sits on top of the Big 12 standings and will be rested and ready when it hosts struggling West Virginia on Thursday night in Waco, Texas.

West Virginia has scored just 14 points in back to back games and  regressing offensively. Tonight Im betting they will once again have issues getting scores behind inconsistent QB Austin Kendall  against a well rested Baylor D, that is allowing just 19.1 ppg on the season.

Under is 10-3 in Bears last 13 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Under is 13-4 in Bears last 17 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 6-2 in Bears last 8 conference games.

Under is 9-3 in Mountaineers last 12 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Mountaineers last 5 Thursday games.

W VIRGINIA is 21-8 UNDER L/29  in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 with the average combined score of 48.8 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

Baylor at 7-0 is off a by week and well rested, and very ready and fresh to lay a two way beatdown on a struggling West Virginia side that is just plain over matched here. West Virginia has averaged 14 ppg in their L/2 and Im betting they wont even reach that out put here this week, while they get gashed in a big way resulting in a Baylor cover. Note: BAYLOR is 10-1 ATS L/11 as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points : Baylor 40.9 Opponent 16.3 . 

CFB home team  (BAYLOR) - a top caliber team (+14 or more PPG differential) against a terrible team (-10 PPG or less differential), after a win by 17 or more points are 27-1 U L/27 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +31.4 ppg. 

Play on Baylor to cover 

UNLV found a way to beat Vanderbilt last time out, and will now be completely wiped out and in a emotional letdown state, vs a Aztecs side that has revenge on board for being upset by UNLV last season at home. San Diego State is currently in top form having held their last three opponents to season low averages, and another shut down performance Im betting will come late Saturday night. 

SAN DIEGO ST is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return with the average ppg diff clicking in at +19 ppg.

San Diego State is 22-1 SU and 19-4 ATS off a SUATS victory under Rocky Long when taking on a  .500 or less conference opponent, including 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS away.

CFB road team (SAN DIEGO ST) - a good team (+5 to +10 PPG diff.) against a terrible team (10 or less PPG diff.) after 7 or more games, in conference games are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs (UNLV) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 11-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate! 

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Missouri was completely asleep at the proverbial wheel last week vs previously winless Vanderbilt, and had no energy what so ever after having rolled off 5 straight victories prior to that ugly affair,. Now steaming and embarrassed I expect the Tigers to come out here and roll over a toothless Kentucky offense that is down to using a WR as a QB. Last week, Kentuckys D, stood tall against Georgia in a rain drenched affair but could not move the ball and lost 21-0. The Wildcats might have more success this week, but Im betting it wont be enough against a  Missouri team that will be angry and motivated. 

 KENTUCKY is 0-6 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in 2 straight games.

CFB Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (KENTUCKY) - after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 38-77 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

CFBroad team (MISSOURI) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 35-11 ATS L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Missouri to cover 

Kansas played a great game last week vs Texas, and despite of a humungous effort lost by two points. Now in a huge emotional let down spot Im betting they come out flat tonight against visiting Texas Tech and take it on the proverbial chin. I know the Texas Tech may not inspire bettors and they are off a loss last week, but in the past this has been a positive boost for their betting backers as the program has cashed 33 of their L/45 off a home defeat for a 73% conversion rate. Note:The Red Raiders have won 15 of the L/16 meetings including 8 straight as visitors and have the edge in this spot play.  

KANSAS is 4-16 ATS L/20  after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored .

CFB Road favorites (TEXAS TECH) - average rushing team (+/- 40 RY/G) against a poor team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG after 7+ games, in conference games are 61-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas Tech to cover 

This is a bad matchup for the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors according to my cross reference power rankings, thus getting points is a viable investment opportunity. Hawaii has not won in New Mexico since 1987, and if they finally get it done this week, Im betting they won't cover here vs a Lobos team that can pound the rock on the ground with merciless fashion and that is 2-1 SU at home this season.Not having  suspended QB Sheriron Jones under center will have no impact on this game.

HAWAII is 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. HAWAII is 3-15 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. 

NEW MEXICO is 40-21 ATS 61 vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (6.2 YPP), in conference games are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO) - off 2 consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals, in October games are 31-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Mexico to cover 

  The Mean Green are desperate for wins as  UNT needs three wins in its final five games  to become Bowl eligible and will be ready to play a big game here in Charlotte today. The Mean Green’s  have won the stats battle in 5 of their /7 games this season despite of their sub par 3-4 record .   

 Charlotte is a  side getting far to much respect after two wins this season against stumbling UMass and a FCS school Gardner-Webb . The 49ers have  also been out stated in 4 straight games while accumulating a 0-4 ATS record, are truly fade material. Im betting the experienced  Mean Green  take care of business  in this spot play. 

North Texas to cover

 Oklahoma State got ran over by a under rated Baylor team last week, and will now be primed to bounce back vs Iowa State this week ,a side Im betting my be looking ahead to their tilt with the Oklahoma Sooners next week. Note:  OSU head coach Mike Gundy is 6-0 ATS as a dog when coming off a SU favorite loss.I know Iowa State is hot and on a 3 game win streak, but OSU must note be underestimated and  can also  be explosive behind RB Chuba Hubbard  who leads FBS College football  in rushing with 1,265 yards and future  NFLer and all around athlete  Tylan Wallace  who has 7 TD catches and is averaging 17.2 YPC.  

OKLAHOMA ST is 6-0 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

CFB road team (OKLAHOMA ST) - off a home loss by 14 or more points, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 41-15 ATS L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

 Wow that was one crazy game last week against Kansas that Texas took part in which it  took a last-second field goal to clinch a miraculous 50-48 victory.  The Longhorns are now Im betting going to be a in a letdown spot vs a TCU team that can torch their porous D, ( UT’s defense allows 470 yards  31 PPG which ranks them No. 118 in the nation  and has given up season-high yards in two of their last three tilts.  The Longhorns are exactly what the doctor ordered for a struggling Horned Frog offence, and with that said I look for the Frogs to make it 5 wins in their L/6 matchups vs Texas. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEXAS) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-67 L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB team (TCU) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or better YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 82-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play on TCU to cover 

Nebraska is scoring just over 25 ppg, and are having trouble moving the ball scoring 7, 13, 7 points respectively in their L/3 tilts, thanks to Adrian Martinez their QB being banged up with a knee issue. The Cornhuskers D, however has looked decent and on the season have allowed  21 ppg at home. Meanwhile, Indiana , QB Michael Penix Jr.is injured and less than 100% for this game and could have problems moving the ball if he plays with limited mobility and converting this Saturday vs a staunch D. The Hoosiers D, has also been strong this season allowing just over 20 ppg on the average and deserves respect. All in all I expect both sides to have issues scoring , while the defences stand tall making for a lower scoring affair.

NEBRASKA is 8-0 UNDER  after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games with a combined average of 47.9 ppg scored. 

CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (INDIANA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 51-21 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

New Mexico State is not a very good team, but Georgia Southern cannot be trusted to cover a 14 points spread, with a offence that ranks 125th in the nation. With that said, and from a completely mathematical standpoint taking points here makes for a viable investment opportunity. 

Aggies are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.

Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass. Eagles are 5-11 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Eagles are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in October.

Play on New Mexico State to cover 

Kirk Ferentz’s Iowa is in a bit of a offensive funk but they still own the  No. 2 offense  in the nation in Red Zone and are more than capable of getting things going in a explosive way here vs a Northwestern side my power rankings suggest they matchup well against. Meanwhile, Northwestern struggles mightily to score averaging just 12.8 ppt ranking 124th in the country just ahead of Georgia Southerns muted attack and look very much like weak home dogs this week. 

Iowa is 9-0 ATS L/9 as conference road favorites of 15 or less points.

CFB home team SU (NORTHWESTERN) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a team with a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR), after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 4-26 L/5 seasons SU, with the average ppg diff clicking in at -16.3 ppg. 

CFB Road favorites SU (IOWA) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 32-1 L/5 seasons SU with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.8 ppg.

Play on Iowa to cover 

Colorados D is a shambles as was evident in back-to-back blowout road losses at No. 11 Oregon (45-3) and Washington State (41-10) the last two weekends. Im betting they will be sliced and diced again,  against an explosive Trojans offence ,but this time around I look for them to muster more points here on their own home field against a USC team battling key defensive injuries to (safety Talanoa Hufanga) and sacks leader Drake Jackson. Note:  Buffaloes rank last in scoring defense (34.9 points allowed per game), total defense (482.4 yards) and passing defense (316 yards).

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (COLORADO) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a poor defense (390 to 440 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 34-6 OVER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 69.8 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Buffs have an edge here at home going against  a beat up USC Defence in a in a bad situational spot. Noe: USC has Oregon on board for next week and could easily be looking ahead. Clay Helton  USCs head coach has cashed just 8 of his 23 road games ATS  and is already 0-3 SU this season and 4-11-1 ATS L/16 away. I expect USC do offensive damage ,but Im also betting on Colorado responding in kind in a game Im betting the Buffs cover. 

Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.

Home team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Play on Colorado to cover 

SMU looked good last week in an easy win vs Temple and are now the frontrunners for the AAC West title  . There were a lot of record setting performances by SMU in that game both personal and institutional  as they put up 655 yards of offence , their most this season so far. The Mustangs were sky high for that game and left it all out on the filed and now on short rest may have very little left in the tank when they face a juiced up Houston this week on the road. Coach Sonny Dykes  has a very talented team  but the Cougars and HC Holgorsen, Im betting won't be so easily pushed around in this tilt. and with revenge on board for a 45-31 loss, as 13-point favorites last season, will now be looking forward to payback  .  Houston is 4-1 ATS the last five as home underdogs and deserve respect at this two plus TD spread or better. 

Houston is 8-1 SU L/9 at home in this series.

SMU is 0-6 ATS  in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons and is 3-12 ATS L/15 in road games off 2 straight wins against conference rivals. 

CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (SMU) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 23-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston to cover 

Tulane beat  up on Memphis, by a 40-24 count, last year as a 14-point home dog .Now Im betting they  can turn the trick and more importantly cover here vs a Tigers team that had their undefeated season come to end last week and that will now be in an emotional let down state and very vulnerable. 

Memphis has failed to cover 6 of their L/7 as home chalk of 9 points or less.MEMPHIS is 8-22 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TULANE) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MEMPHIS) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 14-44 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover 

 Army enters this game against Georgia State having lost two games in a row including their last game against Western Kentucky where they only scored eight points. This is an Army team I respect but there are obviously issues moving the ball right now. Meanwhile, Georgia State is an explosive offensive side, that always has a punchers chance against heavy weights because of their explosiveness.This is Georgia States 6th game but they   have been favoured in only one of the tilts but still have four wins on the campaign and get my support getting points here as a under rated home dog.

Panthers are 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Panthers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games in October.Panthers are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Play on Georgia State to cover 

Georgia lost an ugly OT game by a 20-17 count at  home last time out to South Carolina  and now getting to the College Football Playoff looks like a broken dream which will have the Dogs in a letdown situation here vs a under rated opponent.  Bulldogs QB Jake Fromm,just didn't have it last time out, and in the process showed me he's not ready for prime time games just yet . Meanwhile, the Wildcats are tough blue collar team that is  5-2 ATS as dogs of 10 or more points, and despite of playing with a back up QB Lynn Bowden Jr. who is also their best WR the Cats won a 24-20 battle vs. Arkansas. Bowden who is a complete athlete rushed for 196 yards, and completed 7 of 11 passes, including a TD pass and must be respected here even against Georgia.

GEORGIA is 18-34 ATS  in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

CFB Home favorites (GEORGIA) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival against opponent off a home win are 18-50 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs (KENTUCKY) - off a home win against a conference rival against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival are 34-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kentucky to cover 

Mark Rhules undefeated Baylor Bears come to Oklahoma State to take on the Pokes in a Saturday afternoon tilt.   We all know how explosive the Cowboys offence is but the  the defense they are  going against  is holding opponents to just 17ppg and only one opponent the Red Raiders put more than 21 points on the board. Meanwhile, Baylors  QB Charlie Brewer is a extremely smart athlete  that does not make a lot of mistakes and until his last game did not throw an interception. That kind of discipline and mind set really makes the Bears a hard team to beat, thus getting points here in my betting opinion  golden. 

 Rhule is 10-1 ATS  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more  rushing yards/carry in all games.Rhule is 23-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game in all games he has coached .

Rhule is 38-18 ATS in conference games in his career and , 21-7 ATS away, and 13-1 ATS on the road against opponents coming off a loss like Oklahoma State. ( The Cowboys lost to Texas Tech last time out a team Baylor beat)

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA ST) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 24-60 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs (BAYLOR) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 44-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baylor to cover 

Charlotte continues to get to much respect from the linesmakers as they enter this tilt off three straight losses with their only two wins this season coming against FCS school Gardner Webb and one FBS program that is in a shambles UMass. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky despite of losing their starting QB a few weeks ago continue to show upward momentum having  won three 3 straight and 4 of their L/5 behind a very strong D, that is allowing just 18.5 ppg. 

Bottom line here is that Western Kentucky according to my power rankings is set the superior side playing at home with revenge for a ugly 40-14 loss last season,  now will be primed for payback. 

CFB  A home team (W KENTUCKY) - after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 23-2 SU L/27 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +20.2 ppg. 

Western Kentucky to cover 

  Old Dominion enters this game in complete disarray and  has dropped five straight  games SU  and have been out yarded by almost 100 ypg while UAB has won 5 of their L/6 and gaining momentum.  UAB has held  3 of your last four opponents to season-low yards, and are currently on a 15 game home winning streak and more than capable of exploding here today and cashing as DD home chalk . 

UAB is 6-0 ATS  in October games over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 21.3 ppg.

CFB Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UAB) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UAB Blazers to cover 

Northwestern is a team that bases its strength on defense as their offence is anemic and  atrocious and tonight against an explosive Ohio State offence Im betting they limit big plays and eat up clock in methodical fashion.  As I just mentioned the Cats offense is one of the worst  in the  nation., Northwestern ranks No. 5 overall on defense and 124th on offense and    rank   last in the nation in yards-per-play, points-per-play, and explosive play percentage conversion rate.Tonight Northwestern's excruciatingly slow paced offense will be taking on a over powering Ohio State defense that’s only allowing 8.8 ypg via just 3.7 yards per play and  which ranks second in the nation in defensive havoc.If the Wildcats a side that is averaging just 14.4 ppg (3rd worst int he country) get shutout tonight I wont be surprised . Also Im expecting the Buckeyes to not open their playbook to much this week with Wisconsin on deck for next week, and instead use their  run game quite a bit today, something that they have used more often this season than in recent years ranking 15th in the country in  run play percentage plays. You don't have to be a mathematician to see the writing on the wall that this game has value for under bettors.

OHIO ST is 7-0 UNDER after gaining 475 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.

NORTHWESTERN is 10-1 UNDER  after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with the combined average of 40.8 ppg scored.

NORTHWESTERN  L/22 games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons has seen a combined average of 45 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

  Well rested Pittsburgh goes against a struggling Syracuse side this week .  Pittsburgh has just one loss and contending for the ACC Coastal. Pitts key to success is their blue collar old school  defense, which is  ranked No. 2  in the nation with sacks (27)  .  Meanwhile, Syracuse is downtrodden and  just cannot move the ball consistently especially on the ground and in their 3 losses have been held to an average of  1.16 yards a carry. and have been out yarded to a tune of  (-116 YPG) vs FBS opposition.Tonight Im betting Pittsburgh D controls the line of scrimmage and their offence does more than enough damage against a porous Orange D,   and subsequently takes care of business here on the road. 

Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in October.Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Orange are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Panthers are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Play on the Pittsburgh Panthers to cover 

 I think alot of bettors feel FAU is the better team, and that the way the media has portrayed them here for this Friday night matchup and now the linesmakers are taking the lead by making the Owls favorites in a game that should be closer to a FG (-3). But according to my power ranking numbers Marshall is under rated and deserves my support getting points. It must be noted that FAU ranks 96th in the country in yard per play  on offense and defense while Marshall is ranked 44th in YPP and 68th on defence. I also like Marshalls offensive line, better than Florida Atantic's group and they way they protect their run game, which makes for long grinding drives, which will take FAU out of their  flow when they finally get the ball. To this point in the season Marshall has struggled with Red Zone efficiency thanks to some very unlucky circumstances , bad calls, and just about everything under the sun, but Im expecting that to change. 

FLA ATLANTIC is 1-9 ATS l/10 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

Lane Kiffin’s  is just 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS in back-to-back tilts at FAU Stadium. 

CFB Road underdogs (MARSHALL) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 32-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 

Stanford has held two of its last three opponents to season low yardage, as the defence continues to improve.  Im betting on more of the same action here today vs a UCLA side that has huge problems moving the ball consistently. Today Im betting on a lot of clock time getting eaten away as Stanford a run first team will pound away on a Bruins team with a smaller Defensive front, and for a lower scoring game to ensue. 

Stanford ranks 112th in points per red zone trip and UCLA is 102nd in red zone scoring conversion rate.

Note: Both starting QBs  UCLAs Dorian Thompson Robinson and  Stanfords Davis Mills are less than 100% and both may not start leaving backups to push already faltering offences. 

CFB Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (STANFORD) - off a upset win as a double digit underdog, in weeks 5 through  are 37-11 UNDER  L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UCLA) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 40-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Troys defence especially their secondary is a mess, and Im betting on South Alabama quarterback Cephus Johnson  clicking on some big plays  against a susceptible Troy pass D and doing alot more damage here than the linesmakers expect.  Also it must be noted that  Troy  is ranked last in the nation in opponent pass yards per attempt abd 91st in opponent third-down conversions and  last in opponent explosive passing.Meanwhile,Troys offense has  proven explosive this season ranking 49th in points per game, 52nd in explosiveness, and 54th in efficiency while averaging a 42.7 ppg at home and very fresh off a bye week. Needless to say Im betting on a tilt that exceeds this number based on my projections. 

Over is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 home games.Over is 8-2 in Trojans last 10 games on turf. Over is 6-1 in Jaguars last 7 games following a ATS win.

Play OVER 

With the previously injured QB Khalil Tate  back with the Arizona  Wildcats they now look explosive as was the case when they lit up  Colorado for 400 yards, in an upset win. Meanwhile, Washington remains an enigma of a team as was the case last week against Stanford as they were outgunned and outgained  482-294,  and scored just one TD in a loss. So one team Arizona has momentum and the other the Huskies are downtrodden and looking vulnerable, making getting points with a Wildcats side that has only failed to cash once in their L/6 times as PAC12 tilts.

ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 8-30 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona to cover 

Wyoming enters this contest pounding the ball down opposition D, piling up an average of just under 250 yards per contest via the rush.  Meanwhile, San Diego States offence has been less than consistent,  recording just  20.6 points per game and Im betting they struggle to score in this tilt vs a stout Wyoming D. 

Wyoming Cowboys have picked up wins in three of the last four contests in San Diego. San Diego State has not played all that well at home of late losing 3 of their L/4 SU at home and Im betting the Boyz getting us the cover here in this spot.

Aztecs are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games.

SAN DIEGO ST is 2-11 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game .SAN DIEGO ST is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

WYOMING is 6-0 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.WYOMING is 12-2 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more.

Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games in October.

Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WYOMING) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 32-9 L/5 seasons  for a  78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Wyoming Cowboys to cover