Liberty is off a 1 point loss to Vtech last week and are not in a good mood. This Liberty side is known as the king of cripple killers and Im betting their wrath has no end this week, against a side they overwhelmingly matchup up well against. Note: Liberty has crushed  sub  par .333 opponents by an average of  33 ppg in their L/17 opportunities  and  have covered  and won these events. 7-0 straight times in lined tilts. Rinse and repeat. 

Play on Liberty to cover 

After playing Illinois last week Michigan is bruised and banged up and Im betting that  will effect their performance this week vs. revenge minded Ohio State side that has had this game circled on their calendar for a while now after getting shellacked by a 42-27 count last season at the hands of the wolverines. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win are 20-50 ATS L/30 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play on Ohio State to cover 

Arkansas known as inconsistent football program under HC Pitman is off a huge win vs Miss last time out and now Bowl eligible will be in huge letdown spot vs a Missouri program that had success in this series over the years. Note: Arkansas has lost 11 of their L/15 off a upset win. 

ARKANSAS is 11-25 ATS L/37 as a road favorite . 

Drinkwitz is 9-2 ATS  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 yards/game as the coach of MISSOURI.

MISSOURI is 11-2 ATS L/13 in home games versus inconsistent defensive teams - allowing 6.25  or more yards/play.

CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after out gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 29-62 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate. 

MISSOURI is 3-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS .MISSOURI is 4-0 straight up against ARKANSAS at Arkansas. 

Play on Missouri to cover 

Both these teams have identical 9-2 records on the season, and their only recent losses have both come to UCF in closely contested affairs. The difference maker today will come via Bearcats home field advantage and the fact this is a football program is use to high pressure games and will not fold under any kind of pressure. This is not the case for Tulane. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - off a double digit road win, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better) are 36-4 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.1.

Play on Cincinnati cover

No matter what stats both offensively or defensively have been recorded by either side this season should be discarded and it must be noted that this is a heated rivalry that is often very physical and grueling. This kind of battle also usually ends in a lower scoring affair as compared to the totals offering. These teams have gone under in 10 of their L/13 meetings in Ole Miss and in the two most recent battles these teams did not eclipse hefty totals of 71 and 65.5 with both tilts coming well under theses numbers registering in at 52 and 55 points respectively. 

OLE MISS is 8-1 UNDER  vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53 points going on the board.OLE MISS is 10-2 UNDER  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53.6 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 road games.

80% Chance of rain in Oxford Thursday night.

CFB team against the total (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 191-113 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Fresno State is playing well and Nevada is not having suffered 8 straight losses after q 2-0 start to their campaign. I know the Bulldogs are the superior side, but they have not played well on the road this season losing the stats battles in 4 of 5 games. Im not doubting Fresno State wins here straight up, but I wont be surprised to see Nevada cover this spread and in fact Im betting they do. 

Nevada was blast 41-3 on the road like week in Boise State but it must be noted that this program has proved somewhat resilient in the past after a ugly offensive output going  14-3 ATS  L/17 in home games after scoring 14 points or less last game . 

Tedford is 0-7 ATS   in road games vs. poor teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Nevada to cover 

Georgia is a power house and heads and shoulders above most teams in this entire nation and have a history  of having strong performances in their final road games of the season registering an astounding 11-0 SU/ATS record. With that said, and despite of the hefty line offering laying this much lumber is a viable offering.  Note: CFB Road favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (GEORGIA) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 100+ YPG) against an average team (+/- 50 YPG) are 27-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. 

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (KENTUCKY) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in November games are 16-40 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.

Play on Georgia to cover

UL Monroe has won their L/2 games, and now go against a strong Troy side, that despite of 8-2 overall record and a 7-0 run have only one win of more than 9 points during their current winning streak. Its Troys /D that does a majority of the top tier work, while the offense regularly struggles. My projections estimate this is just to many points to lay with the Trojans with the value sitting with the road dog with winning momentum .

"Don't let their record give you any indication," Troy coach Jon Sumrall said. "They're 4-6 by record but they lost by a score to Coastal Carolina, they lost by a score to South Alabama, and they played Alabama and Texas, two Power Five teams.

TROY is 0-10 ATS L/10  in home games off 3 or more consecutive unders . TROY is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing a game at home over the last 3 season.TROY is 4-14 ATS   in home games when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%)

Play UL Monroe to cover 

The Georgia State Panthers must not be underestimated here vs James Madison as their  defense is staunch and has been dominating their opposition of late. It must be noted that in the last three trips to the gridiron they have given up a grand total 785 yards combined and they have sacked the QBs 15 times  during their current smash down of offenses.   I know James Madison is a fine football program, but they will feel the heat here today vs a gritty/physical side with a never say die attitude. 

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.  GEORGIA ST is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. GEORGIA ST is 8-0 ATS   in road games after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS  in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (GEORGIA ST) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 25-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia State to cover 

Its not my usual m.o to  lay this many points on the road . But Im betting we have a firm advantage here with the road team UTSA that has won 7 straight behind a consistent offense that will take advantage of Rice D, that has allowed 41,56, 30, 45 points respectively in their L/4 trips to the gridiron. The Roadrunners are also trying to clinch a chamoionship game spot so motivation will be a huge factor this Saturday  Note:Road favorites vs. the money line (UTSA) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more are 36-1 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +19.8 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering . UTSA has won the L/6 meetings in this series and have won and  covered the last 3. 

Play on UTSA to cover 

The defending Big 12 champs Baylor Bears were defeated  30-28 as 7.5-point chalk at TCU last season, and now have revenge on board and are redemption minded after a down effort last week vs Kansas State  in what Im betting was a look ahead situation that back fired on them from a attention standpoint. Now wide awake and ready to perform they are very viable underdogs at home vs a TCU side in an emotional letdown scenario after pulling off an upset on the road vs Texas last week. TCU is 5-15 ATS L/20 off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992.

Baylor has covered  13 of their L/14  as an underdog when out looking for  conference revenge versus an opponent coming off a SUATS victory, including 8-0 ATS L/8 when playing as hosts.

.BAYLOR is 31-16 ATS L/47 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25  or more rushing yards/carry.BAYLOR is 6-0 ATS in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.Aranda is 13-5 ATS   when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of BAYLOR.

Play on Baylor to cover 

Despite of an array of returning players from last season, Northern Illinois is just 3-7 SU on the campaign and will not be going bowling this season. Meanwhile, 4-6 Miami O still has a chance at a Bowl invite and Im betting are very motivated  and well prepared to get a W here today. I know Northern Illinois is off a victory last time out, but that has not always been a recipe for success when facing this particular MAC football program going  0-7 ATS coming off an outright away win vs the Hawks. Overall Miami O is 7-1 ATS L/8 meetings in this series and get the nod here behind a solid D, that is allowing just 23 ppg. Note: Northern Illinois is allowing an average of 38 points per game ranking 114th nationally allowing 8.3 yp attempt and here even against a pedestrian Miami O offense wont necessarily be ready for any kind of sudden bounce back. 

MIAMI OHIO is 6-0 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.(lost to Ohio last time out)

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N ILLINOIS) - off a road win against a conference rival, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 7-33 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami O to cover

Georgia is off a huge win vs Tennessee last week by double digits . It was impressive to say the least against an explosive offense. Now in a letdown situation the Dawgs may not start as quickly vs a home side that deserves respect behind the viable arm of Will rogers and company. Note: Miss State HC Mike Leach has cashed 17 of 23 times in his career vs undefeated opposition. Georgia won 31- 24 at home last season in this series, failing to cover as -26.5 chalk and with a limited swing on this line, taking points with the home dog is not as far fetched as some pundits might suggest. Mississippi State has covered 2 of the L/3 meetings at home in this series.Georgia  are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.

Miss State are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play on Mississippi State to cover 

Alabama enters this game vs Ole Miss in very cranky mood , after falling flat on their faces and getting upset SU vs LSU last time out. You can bet life was miserable in practice this week for the Crimson Tide, and now  this massive group of 4 and 5 star athletes will be ready to get redemption and what could easily be a merciless Alabama explosion. 

Saban is 13-0 SU in his career vs sides with a better record and 27-2 vs former assistants. 

ALABAMA is 16-6 ATS in road games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992 with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under 20 ppg. 

ALABAMA is 10-2 ATS  after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under 30 ppg. 

CFB Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (OLE MISS) - in conference games, off a road win against a conference rival are 8-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Alabama to cover

After a slow start Louisville has gone 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 tilts and are in a upward momentum drive and now deserve respect here vs a over rated Tigers side that lost last time out to Notre Dame by DDs a a fav.  Note: CLEMSON is 1-9 ATS  off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite since 1992.

CLEMSON is 0-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 29-8 L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Louisville to cover 

Western Kentucky football program has had a long history of over powering performances late in the season. In week 11 games they are a perfect 13-0 L/13 opportunities and 9-0 SU/ATS L/9 chances. Im betting on another explosive effort here vs a Rice side that has a tendency to fall asleep at the proverbial  wheel like their ugly 56-23 upset loss to Charlotte at home as 15 point favs a couple of weeks ago. Western Kentucky smashed Charlotte last week 59-7 and  beat Rice last season by a 42-21 count. Rinse and repeat on board. 

Owls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Hilltoppers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in November.

Hilltoppers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Hilltoppers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (RICE) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. are 34-67 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Western Kentucky to cover

JMU (5-3, 3-2) spent a week in the Top 25 after winning its first five games, including an upset of Appalachian State in Boone, North Carolina. But JMU has lost three games in a row since as has ODU . While, the Dukes are not going to Bowl or allowed to be a championship side because of this being their first season in the FBS, they may not be as inclined to fight it out like a do or die situation. Meanwhile, the Monarchs are   still in the hunt for a bowl bid, and need 3 straight wins to do so and with that said Im betting leave everything on the field today. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (JAMES MADISON) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 1-7 this season . 

Play on Old Dominion to cover 

Im betting on a huge hangover for the LSU Tigers after upsetting the Alabama Crimson Tide  last time out making them vulnerable to being upset here today vs Arkansas side that fell asleep at the wheel last time out and were upset. Razorbacks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game which was the case in a 21-19 defeat vs under rated Liberty. 

The two most recent meetings in this series have been decided by 3 points . 

 Arkansas is  8-1 ATS as a  underdog of 16 or fewer points. 

Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

 CFB road team (LSU) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 22-52 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arkansas

East Carolina deserves respect here after 3 straight victories vs BYU, UCF, and Memphis. Meanwhile, Cincinnati seems to not playing with alot of motivation and the offense seems much more inconsistent than over the last few seasons, giving credence to me recommending we grab the points with a never say die underdog that plays with passion. Houston is 9-2 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of E CAROLINA.E CAROLINA is 16-4 ATS L/20 as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points .

Play on East Carolina to cover 

Buffalo had a five game win streak abruptly come to an end  vs Ohio last time out. on the road . However, it must be noted that Buffalo is looking to win its fourth road game of the season. A win would make the Bulls bowl eligible for the seventh time in program history and the fifth time in the last six seasons so they will be very motivated and ready for a bounce back effort.

Key projected difference maker: Buffalo has forced 19 turnovers on the season.  The Bulls' lead the MAC with a +7 turnover margin. Add to that Bulls defense has been positively aggressive this season  scoring  a defensive touchdown in three of the last four games. 

BUFFALO is 19-5 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse since 1992BUFFALO is 14-3 ATS  after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992.

Chippewas are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.

CFB road team (BUFFALO) - off a big upset loss by 17 points or more as a favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 23-3 L/30 seasons for a 89% conversion rate!

Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover 

The Battle of the Bricks goes tonight as up-trending Ohio takes on Miami Ohio in Oxford tonight. Im betting- Ohio has surprised alot of ppl this season behind a offense thats piling up top tier numbers. It must be noted that rhe Redhawks have one of the best defenses in the conference. Miami ranks first in scoring defense (21.4), second in total defense (348.0), first in rush defense (107.8), third in sacks (23) and third in interceptions (7). Miami's rush defense ranks 18th nationally.  In five conference games the RedHawks are allowing 18.0 points per contest and have allowed just 10 touchdowns all MAC season.-- In conference play, opponents have reached the re zone 16 times, but have come away with touchdowns just 50% of the time.

Meanwhile, Ohio is ranked 124th in tackling and 123rd in coverage.Thats important because Im betting on QB  Gabbert  who has won 11 of his 12 career starts in Oxford to keep up with Rourke and company and get us to the promised land with either a cover or a SU upset victory.

Projected key difference maker: In his first year with the football program, Graham Nicholson has not disappoin ted  . He finished the season 15-20 on field goals, including 6-of-7 on attempts between 40-49 yards. He added 30 touchbacks on 65 kickoffs in 2021. He is 13-for-16 on field goals in 2022. He also had his first game-winning field goal, connecting on a 36-yard field goal with 21 seconds to go in the 17-14 win at Northwestern.

The RedHawks are 32-15-2 at home vs. Ohio, including a 30-28 victory in 2018 in the Bobcats' last visit.

OHIO U is 4-15 ATS L/19 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) 

MIAMI OHIO is 32-15 ATS ( L/47 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%)MIAMI OHIO is 21-8 ATS   off a double digit road win since 1992. which was the case last time out. Martin is 13-4 ATS  as a home underdog as the coach of MIAMI OHIO.

Play on Miami O to cover

Cincinnati lost last week to UCF and now are in a emotional letdown spot and vulnerable to starting slow despite of being in bounce back mode. Since last seasons play off run the Bearcats own a 1-6-1 ATS mark. 

NAVY is 7-0 ATS  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons. NAVY is 9-1 ATS  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. NAVY is 8-1 ATS  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons. Niumatalolo is 6-0 ATS  as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points as the coach of NAVY. Niumatalolo is 15-4 ATS  off a home win against a conference rival as the coach of NAVY.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - mistake free team - 42 or less penalty yards per game, after dominating the time of possession last game (36 or better  minutes) are 55-16 SATS L/30 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

Play on Navy to cover

These two teams are operating at the opposite end of the performance spectrum with Illinois getting national accolades, while Michigan state seems completely lost. However, for today at least Im betting on Michigan state finding a way to be competitive. After a huge passing game last week vs Nebraska (91% completion rate)-- Illinois Im betting regresses especially after having to endure a emotional letdown after playing in type of stadium that can sap your energy. Michigan State needs wins badly to get a Bowl invite, so Im betting they leave everything on the field today. 

ILLINOIS is 2-10 ATS  in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att.  ILLINOIS is 2-13 ATS  in a home game where the total is 42 or less since 1992.

ILLINOIS is 1-9 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992.

Play on Michigan State to cover 

Both these sides Tennessee and Georgia  are explosive offensively but the difference maker comes via the Dawgs far superior D.  The Dawgs are 10 ppg and 131 yards better on defense than the Volunteers.  Georgia ranks 1st in red zone offense, and No.2 in Red Zone defense. Meanwhile, the Vols are ranked 82nd in the nation in overall D. Note:  Dawgs HC  Kirby Smart is 36-7 SU covering 31 times  as a favorite of less than 20 points,  and has won 8 straight games against  undefeated foes.

CFB road team (TENNESSEE) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (34 or more PPG) after 7 or more games, after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 7-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Home favorites (GEORGIA) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. are 48-19 ATS L/30 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia to cover 

 The UCF Knights are strong team especially when playing at home but have yet to notch a victory on the road in the American Athletic Conference this season and have not grabbed a  win in Memphis since 2018 season. Im betting UCF will find it hard again to find a way to win here this week on the highway, vs a  Memphis side that 11-0 coming off an open date going back 8 seasons and 3-0 under Silverfield. key here will be the tigers discipline Note: Memphis ranks sixth for fewest penalties in FBS football and are averaging just  4.25 penalties per game. 

Memphis is also 7-0 ATS as a home dog since 2016.

MEMPHIS is 10-1 ATS  off 2 consecutive road lossesMEMPHIS is 10-1 ATS  in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season since 1992.MEMPHIS is 25-12 ATS  in home games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game .

MEMPHIS is 6-1 against the spread versus UCF since 1992 at home. 

Play on Memphis to cover

 Baylor is 6-1-1 ATS as Big 12 away pups  and are viable dogs in this spot based on their overall body of work during this campaign as compared to the Sooners inconsistent displays. 

BAYLOR is 7-0 ATS  in road games after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. Baylor is 20-1 ATS as a conference underdog against an opponent coming off a SU/ATS win.

BAYLOR is 46-27 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.

Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points and  are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bears are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Bears are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall.Bears are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win.Bears are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.Bears are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games in November.Bears are 47-23 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Sooners are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Sooners are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. Oklahoma is  0-5 ATS at home against  a side likr BU coming off consecutive SU/ATS victories.

Bears are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Oklahoma.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

CFB home team (OKLAHOMA) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 18-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate.

Play on Baylor to cover 

TCU is red hot entering this game winning 8 straight and still undefeated,  ranking 3rd in the nation in Scoring Offense, averaging 44.3 PPG.and go against a Texas Tech side that was blasted vs Baylor last week and looking emotional and physically drained after taking on quality opponents in 5 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron. 

CFB road team (TEXAS TECH) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are just 9-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on TCU to cover 

Purdue upset the Hawkeyes as 11-point pups on the road  at Iowa last season  and now the Hawkeyes have revenge on board. I know both sides have played at the proverbial opposite end of performance spectrum , but Iowa showed some offensive uptick last week in a victory, and with a solid defensive group on the field ranking 5th overall on D Im betting they can make a game out of this and possibly get SU playback. IOWA is 6-0 ATS  in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Hawkeyes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Road team is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (IOWA) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 60-26 ATS L/30 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play on Iowa to cover 

Wow what an ugly outing for the Boston College last time out, losing 13-3 as 8-point road favorite vs UConn which drops their ATS record vs FBS sides this season to 1-6 ATS.  With that said, Im betting on another ugly outing for the Golden Eagles this week vs a Duke side that has registered 35 and 45 points in back to back games . With BC  averaging  17.3 PPG  on offense this season I highly doubt they can keep up here tonight and as the game progresses should find themselves down by DDs. 

Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.Blue Devils are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games on fieldturf. Blue Devils are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Eagles are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.Eagles are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

CFB road team (DUKE) - after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 63-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on Duke to cover 

Coastal Carolina are home dogs tonight where they deserve respect as is evident by a  17-2 SU in their last 19 overall , including 6-0 SU in revenge, and 2-0 SU/ATS as a underdog. Coastal Carolina lost in OT last season 30-27 in Boone and with big time revenge on board you can bet the home side will be fully awake and ready to perform. 

Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win which w the case last time out. 

Chadwell is 6-0 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of COASTAL CAROLINA.

APPALACHIAN ST is 0-7 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons.

 CFB home team (COASTAL CAROLINA) - off a double digit road win, a top-level team (80% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 62-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. 

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover

Both these offenses are less than explosive, but overall according to my data and power rankings projections the difference maker will come via Western Michigan superior red zone  defense   where they rank  top-30 in opponent conversion rate. Last time out the Broncos was suffocating allowing Miami just 10 points in a win and smashed and grabbed their way to 7 sacks.  Note:The Broncos have seen a decrease in their FBS opponent rushing yards in each of the last four games since giving up a season-high 238 to Pittsburgh and  Im betting the ground the lanes will once again be shut down forcing Bowling Green to the air making them alot more one dimensional and readable. Advantage Western Michigan. 

Falcons are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in November.Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.

 Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games.

Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Play on Western Michigan to cover 

The Bruins (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12) were defeated by  Oregon 45-30 last week at Autzen Stadium Note:The Bruins are 3-6 SU/ATS coming off their first loss of the season. . That was a deflating loss for the Bruins and Im betting they are drained emotionally here and may come out a little flat.

Meanwhile, Ssnce giving up 40 or more  points in each of its first three Pac-12 tilts, the Stanfords defense has really picked up on their tenacity and has now permitted  its last  three  opponents to score  56 combined points and have won two straight games. Note: Cardinal HC David Shaw is  16-4 SU and 16-3  ATS when coming off two wins exact. 

Shaw is 20-10 ATS  in road games in games played on a grass field as the coach of STANFORD.

Stanford owns a 12 -2 SU record  last 14 games in this series,  covering 11 of those games. 

Play on Stanford to cover

Last week South Alabama struggled to score and lost 10-6 to the Troy Trojans and a very physical game. Now in a letdown spot and physically/ emotionally drained Im betting they will have a hard time getting up off the matt in a tilt vs Arkansas State this Saturday. With formerly banged up QB James Blackman expected back in the llineup this week for the Red Wolves Im betting they will be competitive.  S ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS  after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS  off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Arkansas State to cover 

 The SMU Mustangs D is not looking good this season  allowing 453 YPG vs FBS opposition  and  have been shredded  against ground attacks  as their No. 120th ranking trying to stop the run would indicate. With that said, Im betting on Tulsa RB Deneric Prince who enters this game   off a career-best 231 yards performance last week to be a major catalyst in a Tulsa cover and possible outright win this week. 

TULSA is 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play over the last 3 seasons.TULSA is 9-0 ATS  as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. 

SMU is 6-17 ATS L/23 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%). SMU is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. SMU is 1-8 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons.

SMU is 6-17 ATS L/23 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%). 

CFB road team vs. the money line (SMU) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (440  or more YPG) after 7+ games, after being out-gained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 4-34 SU L/30 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. 

Play on Tulsa to cover 

This is not a strong version of the North Texas football program taking to the field today against Western Kentucky especially from a defensive standpoint as is evident by allowing an average of 476.1 ppg and 34.5 ppg. I know the Mean Green are 3-1 in CUSA action but like I said having a Swiss cheese D is not optimal. going forward -or here today, for that matter.   Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is looking very strong after finding a way past UAB last week, and now sporting a 3-1 record in CUSA action while allowing just 19.5 ppg at home this season and can alos light it up offensively averaging 39.5 ppg at home. The only real weakness that the Hilltoppers have displayed is a lack of discipline, but Littrell is 2-9 ATS in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game as the coach of NORTH TEXAS.

NORTH TEXAS is 7-21 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9  or more yards/play with the average ppg diff clicking in at -24.7.

Note:N.Texas is 2-23-1 ATS record in conference tilts  when they loss SU which the lines-makers believe will happen as do I. 

CFB road team (NORTH TEXAS) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (34 or more  PPG) after 7 or more games, after a loss by 6 or less points and 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 

I know how powerful Ohio State can be, but Penn State Im betting can keep this game close enough to cover via a grinding ground game that is capable of turning this game into a slow crawl in the trenches. Note: Day is 0-6 ATS  in road games vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry as the coach of OHIO ST. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (PENN ST) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 29-3 L/5 seasons SU  for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (PENN ST) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game are 45-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Penn State to cover 

Wow what an emotional  hangover Syracuse must have after going into Death Valley and taking a big lead  and then falling apart late and eventually losing to Clemson.  The Orange had an opportunity of lifetime and blew it. Not a good situation for them here as Im betting they will have problems mustering the energy needed to take out a hungry Notre Dame side.  ND as a dog versus an opponent coming off a loss, and  they are coming off a victory of 4 points or more are 10-1 ATS . The Irish are 5-0 SUATS L/5 vs the ACC.NOTRE DAME is 7-0 ATS  against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.NOTRE DAME is 6-0 ATS  after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.NOTRE DAME is 7-0 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Notre Dame to cover 

Both these teams are off 2 straight wins with back up QBs at the helm. Conventional handicapping has alot of pundits on Lafayette, but Im going to take a contrarian view here tonight in a tilt that features strong  defensive units sitting inside the Top 35 in scoring defense (ULL 21st, USM 35th). Both have almost identical  yards allowed per play and yards allowed per game with the superior offensive numbers belonging to Lafayette . Despite of that I like home field advantage to be a strong , advantage for this Southern Miss football program . key catalyst Im betting for Southern /Miss  will be Frank Gore, Jr., who continues to lead the ground game with 568 rushing yards and four TDs. He averages 81.1 yards per contest rushing and 4.9 per carry.

Golden Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Southern Miss holds a 40-11-1 series advantage, including a current nine-game winning streak heading into this contest including 6 straight wins at home . 

Play on Southern Miss to cover

Penn States perfect season record ended last week in a loss to the Michigan and they will now be in a letdown situation against a hungry and tough group of Gophers who after a 4-0 start have lost 2 straight. Last week the Nittany Lions D was shredded on the ground allowing a whopping 418 yards. Now against a strong Minnesota run attack behind the legs of  Mohammed Ibrahim trouble looms for the home side here this Saturday on white out night. 

Fleck is 8-0 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of MINNESOTA.Fleck is 11-2 ATS  in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992.

Franklin is 7-22 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses as the coach of PENN ST.Franklin is 3-15 ATS off a road loss as the coach of PENN ST. 

CFB Road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-6 ATS 10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

Alabama took part in a back forth emotional battle last week and lost on a ugly looking FG to Tennessee losing for the first time this season. That was an exhausting affair, and now Im betting instead of a giant rebound, Im expecting a slow start from Sabans now over valued crew. Note: Nick Saban in his career,  js  0-5 ATS vs FBS opposition at home when coming off a SU/ATS loss  Hey I know Mississippi State lost last week for the 2nd time this season to Kentucky, but I would at all not be surprised if they were not caught looking ahead to this game . 

Leach is 33-13 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992

CFB Road underdogs (MISSISSIPPI ST) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Mississippi state to cover 

Stanford is in a huge letdown situation after upsetting Notre Dame last time out, and will now be vulnerable vs up trending ASU side that defeated a decent Washington team a couple of weeks ago before their bye week. Now well rested Arizona State with the relief of having gotten rid of HC Herm Edwards and a new era under way Im betting use their fresh legs here to be competitive and get us the cover .

STANFORD is 2-9 ATS   vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

Shaw is 3-11 ATS  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return as the coach of STANFORD.

Cardinal are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games.

Play on Arizona State to cover

Purdue 4-0 L/4 is getting alot of respect for the great football they have played, but this is a bad matchup for them vs Wisconsin despite of what many pundits expect. I know the Badgers seem discombobulated and are off being edged by Michigan State, 34-28 last time out in double OT, but this is a home tilt that puts this team in a situation that makes getting a victory a must just to get back some lost respect which means they will leave everything on the field in a all out effort. From historical standpoint Wisconsin is  42-28 ATS in Big Ten tilts when sporting a .500 record. WISCONSIN is also 47-27 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.

Note: Wisconsin 15-0 SU in this series since the 2003 season. 

 PURDUE is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. PURDUE is 10-22 ATS  as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.

CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PURDUE) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more  PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 7-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate!

Play on Wisconsin to cover 

This a key game for both Oklahoma State and Texas , as they have each already lost 1 game. With that said, Im expecting this to be a gritty battle that will be won in the trenches in physical fashion, and could easily be decided on the last possession of the game.  Note:Texas HC Steve Sarkisian is just  3-13 SU away against opposition  with a better record.  Steve Sarkisian is 0-1 SU against Oklahoma State.

I know the Cowboys blew a lead to TCU last time out and lost in OT, but the this is a resilient program as they have 6 straight wins after a loss. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 9-2 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons.

OKLAHOMA ST is 43-26 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.

 The Cowboys have won five of their past six and 11 of their past 14 on Homecoming.

OSU has won eight of the past 12 matchups with Texas, as well as two of the past three played in Stillwater. 

OSU is 7-2 in its past 10 and 16-7 in its past 23 games vs. AP Top 25 teams and 9- 4 in its last 13 games when both teams are ranked in the AP Top 25.

CFB home team vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 40-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate which obviously qualifies on this ATS line offering . 

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

This totals selection is based on a projection system that I have used during the L/30 seasons. My assessment is that based on the type of football both sides are playing a lower scoring affair than the offered number should be expected. 

Ball State has gone under in 4 of their L/5 overall. 

Under is 10-3 in Cardinals last 13 home games.Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 conference games.Under is 8-3 in Cardinals last 11 games on fieldturf.Under is 18-7-1 in Cardinals last 26 games in October. Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

BALL ST is 10-2 UNDER ) after playing a game at home over the last 3 season with a combined average of 50.8 ppg scored. Neu is 11-1 UNDER  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season as the coach of BALL ST with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored. 

CFB  team against the total (E MICHIGAN) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 25-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. 

CFB team against the total (BALL ST) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 62-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER 

The Buffalo Bulls are currently in top form going 4-0 SUATS  and deserve respect here getting points vs visiting Toledo. The offense has averaged 36.5 PPG during that span including allowing back to back opponents to score 7 points. This kind of data and momentum gives us an edge on a possible SU win or a back door cover in competitive fashion. Note:  The Bulls have not allowed points in the fourth quarter in any of their last four games. The Bulls have outscored their opponents, 55-7, in the first half over the last two games.

Buffalo owns a solid  12-4-1 ATS mark as a home underdog, including 5-0-1 ATS against better than .700 foes. 

Buffalo is 3-0 ATS L/3 at home vs Toledo at home.The Bulls won the last meeting, 49-30, at UB Stadium in 2019.

CFB Road favorites (TOLEDO) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 13-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - after out-gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 39-14 ATS for a 74% conversion rate.

Play on Buffalo Bulls to cover

UAB owns  the nation's third-ranked pass defense and will be key to slowing down the Western Kentucky offense that averages throwing the ball 44 times per game so far this season..This will be the fourth spread offense UAB has faced this season and they have faired very well as the  Blazers have allowed  opposition quarterbacks to complete  just 54 percent of their passes and have held opposing sides to an average of just  176.6 passing yards per game.

Note:  Western Kentucky has averaged 489 yards and 40 points per game, while UAB allows only  319 yards and 17 points per game. With said, this is a important game, and as almost is the case the better D will find a way to win.  On the flipside the Blazers are a strong rushing team behind McBride and one of the nations most cohesive Offensive lines, but so far this season WKU has been a dominant run stopping group, but Im betting that wont be the case today. 

The physicality of UABS defense and offense will be the difference maker tonight. 

Clark is 12-1 ATS  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of UAB.Clark is 8-1 ATS  as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of UAB.UAB is 6-0 ATS  in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. UAB is 10-2 ATS L/12 as C USA dog.

WKU is 0-8 ATS as  single-digit conference chalk when facing an above .500 win percentage side.

Play on UAB to cover 

South Alabama has had a great start to their campaign garnering a 5-1 record to this point but in their two most recent games have been over rated by the lines-makers and failed to cover . Tonight against Troy (5-2) Im betting their dream season maybe abruptly upended. The Trojans have cashed 3 straight times against the spread and are on a 4 game winning run, and have cashed 5 straight times in this series and are not to be underestimated in their ferocity and ability to compete. Troy is also 3-0 ATS on the road this season and have cashed 4 straight as underdogs overall. 

S ALABAMA is 20-37 ATS after playing a game at home.

TROY is 9-1 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (S ALABAMA) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 51-108 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate.

CFB road team (TROY) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry are 160-91 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate.

Play on Troy to cover 

San Jose State 12-0 SUATS  as a road favorite in games when coming off a double-digit win like last time out by a 40-7 count vs UNLV. Im betting on the Spartans up trending to continue here vs a Fresno State side that is 0-4 SU/ATS this season, with a lack of offense being a key problem for them (23.6 ppg). SAN JOSE ST is 23-8 ATS L/31 as a road favorite . 

Plus we have revenge on board here by Brennan and company as Fresno State smashed San Jose State last season by a 40-7 count. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FRESNO ST) - outrushed by their opponents by 60 or more yards/game on the season, after allowing 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 14-39 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Jose State to cover 

Clemson at 6-0 is getting better with each passing week and have an edge over a Florida state side that has lost two straight after a fast start.Clemson is 4-0 ATS in the last four of this series and gets the nod here as Im betting they continue their upward momentum. 

Play on Clemson to cover 

The Huskies have dropped two straight, including last week’s 45-38 loss at Arizona State and really need a big game, and Im betting they get it. note: Arizona QB Jayden de Laura  the last time he was here with Arizona State was inserting a giant flag featuring the Washington State logo in the turf at midfield after leading the Cougars to an Apple Cup smash down  last November.   I know de Laura is not  with the Cougars anymore but you can bet the Huskies will be primed for payback this Saturday and could easily be merciless in romp to a big DD victory. 

ARIZONA is 1-11 ATS  in road games after allowing 575 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. ARIZONA is 4-22 ATS  in road games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.

NFL Road underdogs (ARIZONA) - off 4 or more consecutive overs, with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game are 5-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate. 

Play on Washington to cover 

James Madison at 5-0 gets all the headlines and alot of support from the pundits buy the Eagles (3-3) own the  top-ranked offense in the Sun Belt and the 11th-best passing offense in the nation and must not be underestimated in their abilities to keep things close because of their offensive prowess and  give us in a worse case scenario a back door cover . With that said, will will go against the public darlings, and take the underdog. GA SOUTHERN is 8-1 ATS   vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Georgia Southern Eagles to cover 

The Bulldogs are coming off a 41-31 victory over UTEP to open Conference USA play, which was the programs six straight conference-opening win.Quarterback Parker McNeil has thrown for 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. He ranks fourth in the FBS in yards per completion (14.8) and is more than capable of leading his team to a cover here and even a SU win. Note:LA Tech ranks third nationally with five plays from scrimmage over sixty yards. The Bulldogs are 21st nationally in plays from scrimmage over 30 yards with 16. I know North Texas has won seven-straight C-USA matchups dating back to Oct. 30, 2021 which is the longest active streak in the league and the fourth-longest streak nationally, but all good and bad runs must eventually come to an end.LOUISIANA TECH is 5-0 ATS and  straight up against NORTH TEXAS since 1992 here in this venue and a rinse and repeat situation is possibly at hand and more important a cover . 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISIANA TECH) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 47-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Tech to cover 

Alabama QB Bryce Young is questionable and if he plays will be less than 100% giving an edge to what will be a hyped up home team ready to make an imprint on the SEC.  Tennessee is the real deal behind stud QB QB Herndon Hooker and must be respected here getting points. I know the Vols have lost 15 straight to Bama, but the under valued Vols have already ended 5-game losing streaks to Florida and LSU and like the old saying goes 3s a charm. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 36-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road favorites (ALABAMA) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

BYU is off a hard fought loss to Notre Dame last week, and now in. a emotional letdown state go against a tough Arkansas squad in a vulnerable state .  Note: Cougars are just  1-8 ATS versus SEC opposition dating back 32 seasons. Arkansas HC Sam Pitman is   7-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in his career vs non conference opposition. 

BYU is 19-37 ATS L/56 in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. Sitake is 5-14 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of BYU.

ARKANSAS is 23-9 ATS  off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992.

CFB home team (BYU) - off a loss against a conference rival against opponent off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more are 44-82 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play. on Arkansas to cover 

CFB home team vs. the money line (TCU) - after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 33-2 L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on TCU

CFB home team vs. the money line (SYRACUSE) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 42-3 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff at +22.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Syracuse to cover 

After smashing Oklahoma by a 49-0 count last week, I expect the Longhorns to be in an emotional letdown spot here in this tilt vs Iowa State. Iowa State after a close last time out to Kansas State now finds itself in desperation mode and Im betting they leave everything on the filed this week. Note: Cyclones HC Campbell is 10-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog in conference tilts , including 10-0 ATS against winning sides. 

TEXAS is 20-35 ATS   after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

Iowa state has won and covered the last two meetings in this series. 

Play on Iowa State to cover 

Texas shutout Oklahoma last week and the defense is obviously starting to show signs of up trending this season. Also after scoring 49 points last week a natural regression must be expected  fro the Longhorns offense, especially in a letdown scenario. Meanwhile , Iowa State no matter what their record is entering this game, have remained a tough side to play against as the defense remains staunch, allowing 10 or less points in 4 tilts and allowing more than 14 points only once this season. Everything points to a low scoring tilt that remains on the low side of the total. Note: 7 of the L/8 meeting in Texas have stayed under the total.

Campbell is 10-2 UNDER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (IOWA ST) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 31-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Navy has looked good of late after starting lethargically at 0-2. They have won 2 of their L/3 with the only loss a 13-10 heart breaker to military rivals Air Force. Today against SMU Im betting the Middies triple option run heavy offense keeps them in this game vs a SMU side thatS ranks 106th in rush yards allowed this season allowing  179 yards per game. 

NAVY is 8-1 ATS  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. 

NAVY is 7-0 ATS  in road games off an upset win as a home underdog which was the case last time out vs Tulsa . 

SMU is 6-16 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) 

CFB team (SMU) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or better YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 10-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - mistake free team - 42 or less penalty yards per game, after dominating the time of possession last game (36+ minutes) are 44-15 ATS L/30 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Navy to cover 

Temple’s visits  the Bounce House tonight in a game that Im betting will not go well for them. Temple just does not travel well  going 0-6 SU/ATS L/6 away and that trend should stay intact vs  team that is a  defensive juggernaut   as they  lead  the nation in red zone defense. Opponents have scored on just 47% of their trips to the red zone, converting on 9-of-19 attempts. The Knights have only allowed four touchdowns in the red zone in 19 trips for opponents.

Duke shutout Temple in their first game this season, and than last time out scored just 3 points so scoring will be an issue this evening for them again. Meanwhile, UCF has averaged 35.6 ppg so far this season on offense and another points  explosion is not out of the question on their home turf on Space night where they have won all 5 of these themed tilts. Note: The Owls have been destroyed by UCF in their last 3 meetings by an average 36.3 ppg. 

  Since 2017, the Knights are 33-3 SU in home games at FBC Mortgage Stadium.

TEMPLE is 0-8 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.TEMPLE is 0-6 ATS  after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (UCF) - after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 71-33 ATS L/30 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UCF to cover

Baylor is the overall superior side, but West Virginia is always dangerous because of their explosive offense. Here at home West Virginia Im betting has enough of an edge on this line to get us the cover. The Mountaineers are a perfect 5-0 SU L/5 at home in this series.

Note: Losing to Oklahoma State at home last time will take a little bit out the Bears and their performance could easily be muted.  

Brown is 11-1 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers as the coach of W VIRGINIA.

Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.

Mountaineers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Mountaineers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.

Bears are 7-16-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.Bears are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.

Play on West Virginia to cover 

Lafayette goes with a back up QB against a  Marshall defense that ranks 13th in total defense and allows just 281 yards per game. Im betting they struggle to put points on the board. Meanwhile, the the flip-side the visitors, has played a fairly solid brand of D, allowing only 1 of opponents to breach the 21 point plateau against them, and Im betting their stoppers find a way to control the Thundering herds offensive attack . Advantage to the under. 

LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 UNDER  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 45.8  ppg scored. 

LA LAFAYETTE is 10-1 UNDER against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 44.2 ppg scored.

Under is 7-0 in Ragin' Cajuns last 7 games following a straight up loss.

Under is 15-5-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 21 games in October.Under is 39-15-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 55 conference games.Under is 13-5-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 27-11-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 39 games overall.

Under is 4-0 in Thundering Herd last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Under is 4-0 in Thundering Herd last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Under is 6-1 in Thundering Herd last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 games in October.Under is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.

Play UNDER 

Washington State looks explosive offensively behind the arm of QB transfer Cameron Ward who is being looked at very closely by NFL scouts. I know USC has a fine group this season, but it must also be noted that  USC is 1-9 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons. With a look ahead revenger against Utah on board next week, its not out of the realm of possibility that the Trojans could get caught looking ahead and a vulnerable spot as DD favs. 

USC is 0-6 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

WASHINGTON ST is 10-2 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.WASHINGTON ST is 8-0 ATS  after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.WASHINGTON ST is 6-0 ATS  in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons. Dickert is 6-0 ATS  after playing a game at home as the coach of WASHINGTON ST.

Play on Washington State to cover 

Kentucky took a gut-wrenching, 22-19 loss at No. 14 Ole Miss last week, and despite of being angry because of bad calls, from the officials will have a hard time in what must be considered a huge letdown scenario.Wildcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.

South Carolina has had promising performances since its blowout loss to Georgia in Week 3. They can be excused for their performance vs one of college footballs top teams, so Im not underestimating their ability to compete vs a good but slightly over rated Kentucky side. 

Play on South Carolina to cover 

The Illinois defense is currently ranked  No. 1 in the nation in scoring D allowing  a little  over eight points per game. Here today against a Iowa side that struggles to score averaging just 16.4 ppg they have an edge. Last week the Illini held Wisconsin to just 10 points and a rinse and repeat situation is on board here this week in what the lines-makers are suggesting will be a low scoring battle. Illinois has the better offensive flow and will get the job done and bring us home the dough. 

Fighting Illini are 7-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.

CFB home team vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) - with a good rushing D - allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 27-3 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. 

Play on Illinois to cover

 Texas State owns  the 4th-best defense in the Sun Belt and the No. 2 pass defense and have the ability to stay within the underdog line here at home vs the offensively explosive Mounties .

Despite of App States offensive attributes they  have looked inconsistent at times this season and with  Coach Shawn Clarke at the helm of  the Mountaineers they are just  8-15-1 ATS as favs.  Meanwhile, Texas State is  , 6-1-1 ATS when a home dog the past three years plus, and are  6-1-1 ATS at home versus teams with a better record than themselves. 

TEXAS ST is 6-0 ATS  after a loss by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out. 

Play on Texas State to cover 

The Sun Devils have taken part in a tough schedule with three previous opponents  ranked in top 11 of the AP Poll at the time of their tilts. Now battle tested against top tier opposition Im betting they will not be intimidated here at home and get us the cover like they did last week. Note: Wash is just  1-8 ATS  lL9 as road chalk  of 7 or more points . Meanwhile, the Sun Devils 12-2 SU and 13-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings in this series and deserve respect getting this many points .  The last time the Huskies won in Tempe was 2001 with a late FG. 

WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

ARIZONA ST is 27-11 ATS  in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season.

Play on Arizona State to cover 

Pittsburgh Panthers lost at home to Georgia Tech  as 21-point favorites last time out, and despite of wanting to get redemption may find the sledding tougher than anticipated once again this week. I know the Hokies do not inspire most bettors, but they still own a  defense, that allows just 310-YPG ranking No. 26 overall in the nation. Considering the  issues Pittsburgh has shown so far it very much looks like we have en edge taking a 2 TD or more underdog in this spot play. 

Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Narduzzi is 10-20 ATS  as a home favorite as the coach of PITTSBURGH.PITTSBURGH is 16-32 ATS after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game.

Play on VTech to cover 

Utah is know for its toughness, but this group of Bruins are equally rugged, behind offensive line that leads the nation in fewest tackles for loss per game allowed. The Bruins ground game is also in a groove , and functioning with better flow than Utes are. I know Utahs D, is nasty good, but the Florida  Gators ran for 283 yards against them, and Im betting the Bruins can replicate that and help get us the cover in the process. 

UCLA is 5-0 SUATS since 2000 as an unbeaten home dog.  

UCLA is 22-8 ATS  in home games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored 

CFB  home team vs. the money line (UCLA) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 34-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate. 

CFB Road favorites (UTAH) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 12-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

Play on UCLA to cover 

Purdue is coming off a big win last week against Minnesota and have now won 2 in a row. I know Maryland is also off a victory and have looked good this season including a close loss to Michigan, but it must be noted the Terps HC Locksley is 0-13 SU   in his career going up against a football program  coming off consecutive wins. So faltering here is not out of the question and according to my projections probable. 

Purdues D is 77+ yards better than Marylands and today D will be the difference maker. 

Boilermakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.Boilermakers are 10-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Boilermakers are 17-7-2 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Brohm is 11-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of PURDUE. Brohm is 20-6 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry in all games he has coached.

Terrapins are 18-37 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Terrapins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.Terrapins are 16-41 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Terrapins are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games.Terrapins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.

Play on Purdue to cover 

Brian Kelly’s 4-1 Tigers are playing some good football  and deserve respect here as underdogs vs one way offensive side Tennessee Vols football program. Kelley is  18-7 SU at home against  undefeated opposition like Tennessee. Heupel is 3-14 ATS  after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached. 

Volunteers are 4-12 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Volunteers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.

Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.Tigers are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games following a ATS loss.Tigers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

CFB Road favorites (TENNESSEE) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 12-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LSU to cover 

TCU is in a letdown spot after a big win vs Oklahoma last time out and are vulnerable to a slow start here this week against upstart Jayhawks.

The series hosts are 5-1 ATS L/6 in this series.

TCU is 2-13 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return.

Horned Frogs are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.Horned Frogs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on fieldturf. Horned Frogs are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games in October.Horned Frogs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Horned Frogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games.Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

CFB Road favorites (TCU) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 12-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a  76% go against conversion rate.

Play on Kansas to cover 

Oklahoma has lost back to back games and is suddenly no longer a favorite of the pundits and obviously the lines-makers. This is the first time in the last 14 meetings that the Longhorns have been made favs. Note: OKLAHOMA is 7-0 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite since 1992. I know the Texas offense is explosive but the Sooners are  11-3 ATS  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. There was alot of wise guy money that came in on Texas early on when the line first opened , but now its been over done and Ill be recommending we take the points.

The last eight meetings have been decided by eight points or less.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (8.3 or more  PYA), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 12-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate. 

Play on Oklahoma to cover 

The Red River Shootout rivalry may not be as explosive as the lines-makers are suggesting according to my projections.  Texas and Oklahoma could be changing starters this week — Oklahoma to Pitt transfer Davis Beville because of the head injury suffered by Gabriel, and Texas from Hudson Card to Quinn Ewers, who started the first two games of the season. Changing QBs no matter who considered the starter can sometimes hamper offenses to start clicking again and thats what Im betting on here. A high scoring affair is not out of the question, but according to my projections as mentioned above a combined score that eclipses this number is unlikely. 

CFB team against the total (OKLAHOMA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 27-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate with the average combined ppg clicking in at 47.5 . 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (TEXAS) - after a win by 17 or more points against opponent after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 42-9 UNDER with  a combined average of 60.5 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

 Nebraska’s is registered at a lowly  No. 124 overall defense and Rutgers Im betting piles up some points here well above their season average . I know the Scarlet Knights defense has been staunch but still projects to allow between 20 and 27 points according to my estimates which will help us easily eclipse this total. Note: Nebraska put 28 points and 35 points on the board against both their Big 10 opponents this season Northwestern and Indiana. 

RUTGERS is 6-0 OVER in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of  56.3 ppg scored. RUTGERS is 14-4 OVER   off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more with a combined average of 52.3 ppg scored. (Ohio State pummeled them last week)

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (RUTGERS) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team are 22-3 OVER L/30 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

UCF owns a perfect 5-0 record at home against the Mustangs in the all time series. SMU won the last meeting between the programs, in DD fashion at home and now with revenge on board Im betting UCF will this game in motivated fashion and proverbially  leave no prisoners. Note:Since 2017, the Knights are 32-3 SU in home games at FBC Mortgage Stadium and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation in place behind , a Knights defense has been top shelf season, as is evident by leading  the nation in red zone defense. Opponents have scored on just 40% of their trips into the red zone, converting on  just 6-of-15 attempts. The Knights have only allowed three touchdowns in the red zone in 15 trips for opponents and are projected to give SMU issues in offensive flow in key down situations.Following the first four games of the season, UCF is one of just two FBS teams (Oregon) to surpass 600 yards of total offense in more than one game this season. The Knights recorded a season-high 653 yards in the road win at Florida Atlantic and also tallied 605 yards in the season opener against South Carolina State. 

On the flip-side  UCF is averaging 275.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks third nationally and leads the AAC. Fifth-year running back Isaiah Bowser is 19th in nationally with five rushing touchdowns, which is second in the conference.  I expect the Knights will pound the ball on the  ground and slow this game down to a crawl which will take high flying Mustangs out of their game flow. 

SMU is 9-24 ATS  in road games vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry.SMU is 19-36 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UCF) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 43-15 ATS L/30 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UCF to cover 

I know Clemson has won 36 straight home games, and I wont be surprised if they win again, but after their exhausting back and forth battle against Wake Forest last week, I expect a natural letdown scenario to hit the Tigers, which could easily effect their ability to start fast and cover here vs a under rated and tough NC State football program that ranks 2nd in D. 

Both these sides are 4-0 SU on the season, and both failed to cover last time out. However it must be noted that 

NC STATE is 8-1 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

NC STATE is 19-7 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game. NC STATE is 8-0 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - with a good defense - allowing 4.8 or less yards/play, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous games are 23-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NC State to cover

In Sun Belt games, Arkansas State has won 12 straight over the Warhawks and leads the series 17-4 after beating ULM 27-24 in Monroe last year as 3 point underdogs which was the 12th straight cover by the Wolves  in this series. With LA Monroe off a huge win vs Lafayette last week by a 21-17 count as underdogs Im betting on a natural letdown scenario to rear its ugly head vs a Arkansas State program that for what ever reasons owns a long term winning record. I know Arkansas State is just 1-3 but with Florida State transfer QB James Blackman, beginning to come into his own the Wolves are dangerous opponents.  in his second year in the program, the veteran QB 43 career games and 34 starts under his belt, Blackman has completed 83-of-123 passes for 958 yards and five touchdowns with just one interception. Add to that Recognized on the Doak Walker Watch List, Johnnie Lang Jr. leads the ground game with 219 yards and one touchdown on 45 carries while Brian Snead has 164 yards and four scores on 39 attempts. Two pronged attack gets it done this week and gets us a win and cover.

Arkansas State to cover 

Wake Forest had a 11 game winning streak at home end last week in a OT loss to Clemson. Now angry and hungry and ready for redemption Im betting the explosive Demon Deacons behind the arm of star QB Sam Hartman to give the pubic darling Florida State Seminoles all they can handle. 

FLORIDA ST is 6-16 ATS  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Clawson is 14-5 ATS  when the total is between 63.5 and 70 as the coach of WAKE FOREST

Clawson is 12-3 ATS  after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 3 straight games in all games he has coached

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA ST) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (8.3 or more PYA), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 12-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover

Michigan State has lost two straight and are not the public darling they once were . They were beat by a very good Washington team by 11 points then fell flat on their faces in a emotional letdown spot last time out to vs Minnesota in a ugly DD loss. Now in desperation mode Im betting they come out here and leave everything on the field vs Maryland. Note: Terps are just 6-18 SU and 7-17 ATS in Big Ten battles under Mike Locksley and must not be over estimated despite of playing Michigan tough last time out.MICHIGAN ST is 6-1 straight up against MARYLAND since 1992 and Im betting gets us the cover here.

Play on Michigan State to cover 

James is off a big upset vs App State and will now be in an emotional letdown state this week as they bring a perfect 3-0 record in their first FBS season. Texas State  ranks  No. 17 in tackling,  and could easily give JMU’s passing attack problems behind a  No. 3 ranked pass-rush grade and No. 1 in the nation in PFF coverage grade. Intensity could easily be lacking here for JMU and Texas State is built to take advantage of it.Texas State gives up only 301 YPG and  Im betting can hold the fort here. 

CFB home team (JAMES MADISON) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a terrible rushing team (100 or less RY/game), in conference games are 4-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% go against  conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas State to cover

Iowa has been a strong home side for a very long time. Something about this crowd and the energy created brings out the best in this program no matter what the perceived levels of talent they currently have on the filed as compared to their competition.  I know Michigan is a strong side, but Im betting things dont come all that easily for them this week in this road tilt vs a top ranked  D, that can stifle the best of offenses. ( I know there is a  key injury to linebacker Jacobs , but their is alot of grit in this Hawkeyes D, and Im betting they find a way to pull up the slack)

Note: Iowas HC Kirk Ferentz  is 55-2 ATS  L/57 as a double digit dog at home. Ferentz is 21-8 ATS vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game as the coach of IOWA.

Michigan is 0-5-1 ATS L/6 on the road in this series and have not won here since the 2005 campaign. 

IOWA is 31-9 ATS L/40 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.IOWA is 6-0 ATS  after a game where they committed no turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

MICHIGAN is 6-22 ATS  after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992.

CFB home team vs. the money line (IOWA) - off 1 or more straight overs, with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game are 57-7 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa 

Both these teams are 4-0 on the season , and with my projections making this a pickem, Im betting getting points at home for UCLA will prove golden .

WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.

UCLA is 23-7 ATS in home games after scoring 42 points or more last game which was the case in 1 45-17 win vs hapless Colorado last time out.

Kelly is 6-0 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive overs as the coach of UCLA.

CFB home team (UCLA) - off a road blowout win by 28 points or more, a top-level team (80% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 29-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCLA) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game, with an experienced QB returning as starter are 31-9 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCLA) - with a good defense - allowing 4.8 or less yards/play, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are 23-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

CFB Road favorites (WASHINGTON) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 11-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate!

UCLA is 9-2 SU L/11 at home in this series.

Play on UCLA to cover

Boise State is 112th in the nation in scoring at 22 points a game after  garnering just 177 yards of offense despite being favored by 16.5 points over UTEP.  The Broncos’ time of possession was limited to 19:25  in that above mentioned tilt and against a physical San Diego State may struggle again to find flow, especially considering that the Aztecs are expected to pound the ball on the ground and make this a grinding physical game. San Diego State scored the game’s final 24 points to beat Boise State 27-16 at home last season and now a rinse repeat situation Im betting is in place considering the logistics data that shows us the Broncos are struggling more mightily than even the worst pessimist may have expected.SAN DIEGO ST is 6-1 against the spread versus BOISE ST since 1992 and 3-0 ATS L/3 at Boise State. Boise State is also  0-6 ATS L/6 as fav in this series. 

In his fourth season at Houston's helm, Holgorsen has become frustrated with his squad."Tired of yelling at them. Tired of motivating them. Tired of all that crap," Holgorsen said after last Saturday's 34-27 win over Rice. The energy and chemistry with this Cougars group is an indicator of their current motivational mind set giving us an edge with an under rated a hard working  opponent the Tulane Green Wave. Note: Houstons secondary is abysmal allowing an  average of 295 passing yards per game  in four tilts. 

Holgorsen is 0-7 ATS  in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of HOUSTON. Holgorsen is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing 310 or less  yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB team (HOUSTON) - off 4 or more consecutive overs, with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game are 17-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

NFL Road underdogs vs. the money line (TULANE) - after allowing 250 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with 9 or more defensive starters returning are 28-13 L/30 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Oregon State has been explosive so far against sub par defenses, but today vs a top tier USC D, they will Im betting regress substantially which will directly have on effect of this total . Im leaning heavily on this number not being eclipsed. 

Jonathan is 6-0 UNDER  in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs as the coach of OREGON ST with a combined average of 55.7 ppg. OREGON ST is 12-3 UNDER  in home games after scoring 42 points or more last game with a combined average of 49.1 ppg.

USC is 11-2 UNDER  in road games after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite with a combined average of 44 ppg. 

 CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (OREGON ST) - after scoring 50 points or more last game against opponent after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 23-2 UNDER L/5 seasons with the average ppg scored coming in at 54.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER

Seminoles are unbeaten but man are they ever beat up. Last Thursday in a hard fought win vs Louisville Florida states starting QB Jordan Travis was on the side line with crutches in the 2nd half  and if he plays this week he  maybe less than 100%.  Im betting Boston takes advantage of this situation and stays very competitive and gets us the cover vs a exhausted Noles side in an emotional and physical letdown situation. Note: Eagles BCs HC Jeff Hafley is 3-0 ATS  as a underdog of 14 or more points. 

These teams have played some very close affairs of late with the last 3 decided by one score or less. Rinse and repeat agenda now on board. 

BOSTON COLLEGE is 34-19 ATS   in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 

CFB road team (BOSTON COLLEGE) - struggling  rushing team - averaging 100 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 55-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for  bettors. 

Play on Boston  College to cover 

Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day has taken out  Wisconsin twice here with this program,  defeating the  Badgers 38-7 in the 2019 regular season, then repeating the feat  in the conference championship in the same campaign 34-21 and Im betting on a rinse and repeat scenario here today .OHIO ST is 19-7 ATS  in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25 or better  yards/play  with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at 19,8 ppg. Chryst is 1-9 ATS  after out gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games in all games . Wisconsin 1-5-1 ATS L/7 as conference dogs of more than 12 points. Chryst is 2-11 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of WISCONSIN

Day is 11-3 ATS  off a home win by 17 points or more as the coach of OHIO ST.

CFB home team vs. the money line (OHIO STATE) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 43-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for. bettors with the average margin of victory combing by 20.2 ppg. 

CFB Home favorites (OHIO ST) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 30-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Ohio State to cover

Gtech is 0-3 ITS and been out-yarded by 176 YPG and are fade material in their current form. 

GEORGIA TECH is 0-7 ATS after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Collins is 1-9 ATS  in non-conference games as the coach of GEORGIA TECH.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (GEORGIA TECH) - with a poor offense - averaging 315 or less total yards/game, after gaining 3.25 or less yards/play in their previous game are 7-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (GEORGIA TECH) - poor team - outgained by their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after gaining 3.25 or less yards/play in their previous game are 10-33 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UCF to cover 

Transfer quarterback Cameron Ward has looked in this Washington State football program so far this season. On the flip-side the up-trending  Cougars have allowed just  12.7 points per game, which has them ranked 19th in D-1. Washington State has given up a  total of 273 yards rushing (91.0 yards per game) in addition to 0 touchdowns rushing for the year. In total, they have surrendered  38 points overall and just  4 passing  touchdowns  and 217.0 yards average pg, which has them ranked 70th in Division 1. Im betting they make the Ducks one dimensional on offense and make life very difficult for the young men from Eugene. 

WASHINGTON ST is 36-18 ATS L/54 versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more  rushing yards/game . Dickert is 6-0 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of WASHINGTON ST.

CFB Road favorites (OREGON) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 10-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON ST) - after out gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 37-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Washington State to cover 

The Florida  Gators  enter this road game against Tennessee with 5-1 SUATS record in  the last six meetings, and overall are 16-1 ATS in the last 17 games vs the Vols. Meanwhile, Tennessee is just1-8 ATS as SEC home favorites of 10.5  or less  points. In the Vols last 5 home games vs SEC sides off a victory like Florida is are just 0-5 SU/ATS. I know ol Rocky top has a explosive offense, but Im betting a stronger than expected Florida D, stands tall here and makes life difficult for the DD home fav. 

Heupel is 3-13 ATS  after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached.

Napier is 10-2 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. in all games he has coached.

Play on Florida to cover 

Wake Forest is being under estimated here by the lines-makers according to my own projections. The Deacons  have an 11-game home winning streak and must not be taken lightly in their ability to light up the scoreboard and be competitive as hosts with 5th year experienced QB.Sam Hartman  the helm of the offense . The top tier man under center has accumulated almost    10,000 yards and 79 touchdowns over the span of his College Football career and is a solid underdog. 

CLEMSON is 1-10 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons. CLEMSON is 1-8 ATS  in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Clawson is 21-11 ATS  in home games against conference opponents as the coach of WAKE FOREST.

CFB Road favorites (CLEMSON) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 10-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Powerful Georgia has nothing to worry about here vs Kent State and Im betting will play alot of backups today. Meanwhile, Kent will leave everything on the field in an attempt to make a historical statement. The Flashes have already played Oklahoma and Washington and showed some spark in those games despite of handy defeats and Im betting they find a way to get us a cover vs a disinterested Dawgs side that will most probably trying to stay healthy and remain  rested before SEC heavy duty action gets underway. 

GEORGIA is 7-23 ATS in home games after a cover as a double digit favorite . GEORGIA is 4-13 ATS  in home games after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points . Smart is 1-11 ATS in home games after a cover as a double digit favorite as the coach of GEORGIA.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 or more points (GEORGIA) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after being outgained by 125 or more total yds 2 consecutive games are 8-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Iowa State was wide awake last week in their win vs Ohio U by a  43-10 count and are primed to play some big time football this week vs Baylor at home in their Big 12 opener.

Cyclones are  3-0 ITS   and winning the stats battles  by an average 191 YPG early on this campaign and my projections estimate another strong performance vs a viable opponent. 

Note: IOWA ST is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

Campbell is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season as the coach of IOWA ST. Campbell is 14-3 ATS  after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games as the coach of IOWA ST

CFB home team vs. the money line (IOWA ST) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 43-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for. bettors with the average margin of victory combing by 20.2 ppg. 

Play on Iowa State to cover 

 Jim Harbaugh has owned Maryland going a perfect 6-0 SUATS in the series while outscoring them by an average of  33 points per game.  Rinse and repeat situation Im betting is now on board this Saturday. Maryland as  Big Ten road pups  of 10 or more points have failed to cover 9 of their L/11 opportunities. 

MARYLAND is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a the average margin ppg diff clicking in at -30.2 ppg. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (IOWA ST) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 43-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for. bettors with the average margin of victory combing by 20.2 ppg. 

CFB Home favorites (MICHIGAN) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games are 78-38 ATS L/30 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

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Since Bryan Harsin took over the coaching duties at Auburn the program has reversed itself, and continued negative regression is expected this week vs Missouri. 

Auburn is 0-3 ATS so far this season. Harsin is 6-11 ATS when favored and coming off a loss, including 2-7 ATS at home (Penn State crushed Auburn last week by a 41-12 count. )

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSOURI) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 27-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

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UTEP is 1-3 SU on the season and has been outscored by an average of 34-12 and have failed to cover all 4 games. I know Boise State has been slow on take off this season, with a minimal type wins vs Tenn Martin and New Mexico and a opening  loss vs Oregon State. However, now I expect the Blue Broncos  to be in top flight tonight vs a side they pummeled last season by a 54-13 count. Note: The Broncos D has shined allowing an average of 260 ypg total which ranks 10th in the nation and Im betting UTEP struggles to score and keep up. Boise State has faired well in their fourth game of the season the last 4 seasons winning/ cashing all 4 times by an average of 21.5 ppg.  Boise State is 6-0 ATS L/6 in this series and a rinse and repeat scenario is offering itself up tonight. 

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The Mountaineers can roll up points quickly but they will go against a  Hokies  side that have rebounded from a last-second loss at Old Dominion to win two straight battles, because of a top tier  defense that ranks 5th overall, 3rd against the run and 15th against the pass in the nation . Compared to West Virginia  they have allowed  126 yards less ppg   than the Mounties including  21 less points per game. Va Tech owns a  7-2 ATS L/9 series edge at Lane Stadium, including 4-0 ATS with revenge which is on board here tonight. Virginia Tech  is 12-7-1 SU all-time at home vs West Virginia. 

W VIRGINIA is 2-11 ATS  in road games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game. W VIRGINIA is 6-19 ATS L/25 in road games against ACC opponents . 

VIRGINIA TECH is 10-2 ATS  in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game.

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The Aggies were held to under 200 total yards and 1 offensive touchdown last week in a loss to App State, and after dissecting that game it's obvious this Texas A&M side has alot of vulnerabilities that can be exploited by a team like the Canes. Im betting on Miami Fl , new HC  Mario Cristobal to be  very well prepared here to pull off a possible upset and more importantly as we are concerned a cover. Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS A&M) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (8.3 or more  PYA), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 10-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a  go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

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Huge emotional letdown situation for Texas this week vs UTSA after a heart breaking loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide last week 20-19 -thanks to a late FG by the Tide. Now vulnerable and also with injured starting QB Quinn Ewers out of the lineup the Longhorns are vulnerable to a slow start and subsequent fail as DD home favs vs a UTSA side with a top tier coach at the helm (Jeff Traylor).UTSA is 6-0 ATS  in the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. Traylor is 7-0 ATS  in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of UTSA.

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