Western Michigan has won 3 straight games but this is a bad road matchup for them vs a Buffalo Bulls side that  are 17-1 ATS at home since 2017, including 14-0 ATS in conference games. Lester is 1-8 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of W MICHIGAN. Lester is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game as the coach of W MICHIGAN.

BUFFALO is 22-10 ATS  in home games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.

W MICHIGAN is 3-12 ATS  as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

Play on Buffalo to cover 

The Owls are up trending in my power rankings and despite of a .500 record at  2-2 SU, they   have  out-gain their opposition  by 56 YPG. Meanwhile, Memphis has proven themselves highly inconsistent this season, and going back a few seasons HC Silverfield 0-6 ATS on the road  in Saturday tilts.  

Memphis is a perfect 6-0 ATS L/6 in this series.

TEMPLE is 19-4 ATS L/23 after allowing 75 or less passing yards in their last game which was the case in a 41-7 win vs Wagner. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (TEMPLE) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 46-5 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Temple 

Im betting Utah State got caught looking ahead to this tilt vs BYU last week when they suffered a home loss vs Boise State after winning their first 3 games vs Washington State, N.Dakota and Air Force. I know tonight opponent BYU has proven themselves to be a very strong side to this point in the season, but according to my own projections this line is over done, and the home underdog has value . It must be noted that BYU has failed to cover 10 of their L/12 as favorites, and USU head coach Blake Anderson is 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS at home in his career when coming off a home defeat which was the case last time out.  

BYU is 1-10 ATS  vs. inconsistent passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Utah State to cover 

These 4-0 teams go head to head here this Friday night in game that Im betting will see the underdog cash and possibly spring the SU upset. Iowa has got to this point with a staunch defense (11 ppg), but their offense is needless to say less than championship caliber scoring just 27 ppg on average which puts them at a disadvantage on the road vs a a side that has also shown a strong D (14.3 ppg), but has also shown an explosive offense (37.3 ppg) while out-gaining opponents my 200+ ypg. 

 4-0 or better college football home underdog versus a 4-0 or better  opponent have cashed 12 of the L/13 opportunities. 

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MARYLAND) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game are 27-7 80% L/5 seasons. 

CFB  Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MARYLAND) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games are 34-10 L/29 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play on Maryland to cover 

Nebraska looked cohesive vs Oklahoma before succumbing by a  23-16, count and deserve respect here as underdogs . Meanwhile,  Michigan State is  off a  strong 38-17 road victory vs Miami and could easily find themselves in a letdown situation vs a side that has had their number of late . Nebraska 8-1 ATS L/9 and  has won 9-of-11 vs. MSU, and the last two meetings overall.

NEBRASKA is 20-8 ATS L/28  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return. Frost is 20-8 ATS (  after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Nebraska to cover 

Kansas State is a well coached team, and know how to win via a tough as nail defense as was evident last week in a 38-17 win vs Nevada. Oklahoma State in their 2nd straight road game will be in tough environment here after their road win vs Boise state last week. Advantage KState. 

KANSAS ST is 7-0 ATS  after a game where they committed no turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

 CFB Road underdogs (KANSAS ST) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 27-6 L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Kansas State is 7-0 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points in this series.

Play on Kansas State to cover

Stanford has won 12 of the last 13 meetings with the Bruins and Im wont be surprised by an upset here in this spot play as home dogs. The Cards took out USC in conference play a couple of weeks ago, and now against a public favorite could easily grab the cash for their betting backers vs a over hyped Bruins team. 

CFB home team (STANFORD) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 30-7 L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Stanford to cover 

 Rutgers has covered in its last 6 road games and according to my power rankings matchup well vs this Michigan football program. With that said, Im recommending we take the points.

MICHIGAN is 5-18 ATS  after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. MICHIGAN is 6-17 ATS  after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games. Michigan has failed to cover in its last 5 conference games.

Schiano is 21-7 ATS  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached since 1992

CFB Road underdogs (RUTGERS) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 91-46 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate.

Play on Rutgers to cover 

The Roadrunners average 39.3 points per game, 7.3 more than the Tigers surrender (32.0) and have the edge here this week vs a Memphis side in a letdown spot after a upset victory last week vs Mississippi State. 

MEMPHIS is 10-22 ATS  as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 

CFB home team (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, with an inexperienced QB as starter, in the first month of the season are 8-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UTSA to cover 

Louisville is coming off a top tier  42-35 win at home over UCF last Friday night and will now be in a huge letdown scenario vs a desperate Florida State program. Louisville, when coming off  a victory as host win as a dog of more than 7 points, are a lowly 28-49-2 ATS dating back 41 seasons. 

Norvell is 9-1 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in all games he has coached .

Play on Florida State to cover

The Tigers' may not be as proficient as the early prognosticators thought as is event by the offense ranking 114th nationally and DJ Uiagalelei ranking 88th in passing yards per game . Meanwhile,  NC State ranks 16th in total defense and 30th on offense behind and average 455 YPG this season as QB Devin Leary shows his top prowess. With that said we have an edge here taking points. 

NC STATE is 33-17 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 148-87 ATS L/29 years for a 63% conversion rate.

Play on NC State to cover

I believe according to my projection matchups that the Flashes are well suited to hang tough here vs a inconsistent Maryland football program. Maryland  are just 1-17 SUATS in their last eighteen games when coming off a conference victory which was the case in their win vs Illinois.

KENT ST is 10-2 ATS L/12 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.

MARYLAND is 1-8 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. 

MARYLAND is 7-20 ATS against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season. 

Lewis is 9-2 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of KENT ST.

Play on Kent State to cover 

After last weeks fiasco in Wyoming where Ball State was annihilated, we now have value with a MAC championship team, that must not be underestimated. The Cardinal have won the last two meetings vs Toledo and according to my matchup projections have an edge as underdogs in this spot play. Its obvious to me at least that Cards are in a championship hangover mode, but should be wide awake. 

Candle is 3-12 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better as the coach of TOLEDO. 

8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss of 20-plus points

Play on Ball State to cover 

UMass did not look completely out of place against  Boston College or Eastern Michigan and stayed with a 17 point margin, and according to my power rankings are up-trending. Yes, they were at close to bottom of my rankings, but non the less they are much more formidable opposition than they were last season when they lost by 34 to Coastal Carolina. 

CFB home team (COASTAL CAROLINA) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or better YPR) against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), in non-conference games are 35-72 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UMass to cover

Boston College has looked strong to this point in the season as they are off to a  3-0 start , outscoring their opposition by a  124-31 count. Today vs what has been an explosive Eagles offense, Im betting Missouris crap defense that allows a ugly 455.7 YPG will get run over in a big way. I know the tigers can really pile point on but, BC has shown a strong D, allowing just 256 ypg and is well suited to slow down the Missouri locomotive. 

MISSOURI is 1-9 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON COLLEGE) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game and are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play on Boston College to cover 

Padres starter VELASQUEZ is 6-0  against the money line vs. an NL team with an slugging percentage of .430 or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) He may not be considered a top tier hurler but he is obviously motivated when going against strong opponent. 

SAN DIEGO is 19-3  against the money line in home games revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last 3 seasons.SAN DIEGO is 20-6 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less ) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 5.70 or more ) -NL, in September games are 52-84 L/24 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the San Diego Padres to win 

 Charlotte took out  the Blue Raiders 34-20 last season  as 5 point home dogs under HC Will Healy. That was the Niners first victory in this series in 5 meetings. I like the grit that Charlotte plays with and Middle Tenn state may not inspire some bettors, but here in revenge mode vs a home side that has only covered 3 of 8 games as FBS chalk my projections estimate a possible upset and cover by the visitors. MIDDLE TENN ST is 6-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.

CFB home team (CHARLOTTE) - after scoring 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 4-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 225 or more rushing yards/game, after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game are 3-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Middle Tenn State to cover 

My projections and power rankings suggest this line should be no higher than 10 points and thus according to my estimates we have value attached to under rated Fresno State. It must be noted UCLA is getting way to much respect for their win vs LSU. Note: The Bruins have failed to cover 6 of the L/8 games vs non conference opposition as a home favorite. Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS L/5 vs Pac 12. Fresno State is also 8-1 ATS L/9 as underdogs of 10 or more points.

CFB home team (UCLA) - excellent rushing team ( 4.8 or more YPR) against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), in non-conference games are 33-70 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate.

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (FRESNO ST) - after allowing 250 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with 9 or more defensive starters returning are 90-46 L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Fresno State to cover

The Boise State Broncos are  still looking for steady direction under new head coach Andy Avalos and inconsistencies have looked common here early this season. The one consistency I do see, is that the defense has some work to do, and here against an explosive Oklahoma State squad difficulties will definitely  arise here against  Cowboys star QB Spencer Sanders and company. Note:  The Cowboys beat BSU, 44-18, the  last time these teams met back in  2018. 

Gundy is 38-24 ATS in non-conference games as the coach of OKLAHOMA ST.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OKLAHOMA ST) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 51-20 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

Both these teams can light up the scoreboard in a hurry and the lines-makers are well aware of this as they have set a high totals count on this tilt. When projecting scoreboard tallys is become obvious to me that getting points here is a value play.Fritz is 13-4 ATS  when the total is greater than or equal to 63 in all games he has coached since 1992. Note: Rebels 1-9 ATS  as a favorite when coming off consecutive victories . Ole Miss HC Kiffin has failed to cover 13 of the L/20 vs a non conference opponent. 

Play on Tulane to cover 

The Stanford Cardinal are off a huge win last week against USC, and will now be in a letdown situation this week here on the road in a SEC  venue at Vanderbilt. The Cardinal are 10-23 ats L/33 times off a underdog win. Vanderbilt is also off a \upset win, and Shaw and company are just 0-8-1 ATS L/9 vs these types of sides.

CFB Home underdogs (VANDERBILT) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game against opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 26-5 ATS L/29 seasons for 84% conversion rate.

Play on Vandy to cover 

I have some futures tickets on Penn State and feel they are the most under rated team in the nation. While my assumptions may prove incorrect at some point , - for now  I feel strongly about their talent levels, and believe they can beat any team in the nation if healthy including their SEC opponent today Auburn who return just 9 starters from last years squad.  Auburn has blown away some sub par competition in their first two games, but here today their are in deep and that will show in the final score.

Penn State currently 2-0 SU/ATS this season  is 6-0 ATS/SU L/6 dating back to last season. 

Nittany Lions’ head coach James Franklin is  12-0 ATS over the last twelve games when coming off consecutive SU/ATS victories. 

Play on Penn state to cover 

. The Falcons are coming off a 23-3 win over Navy and Im betting they will be a in a letdown situation this week vs a under rated Utah State side.Utah State has averaged 311 passing yards per game through its first two tilts and the defense has only surrendered a total of 214 rushing yards and must be respected here as underdogs. 

Troy Calhoun is 19- 33 ATS ras conference chalk, and has failed to cover 16 of their L/24 after playing  Navy, including 3-9 ATS as favs. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH ST) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored are 31-9 ATS L/29 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Play on Utah state to cover 

This tilt is based on power ranking and projection output that favor the underdog covering this number. Each of the last 3 meetings between these CUSA rivals have been decided by 8 points or less. Im betting on similar results here thus giving us value with the home underdog. Last time out UAB was eaten alive by Georgia and that can be humiliating. College kids dont deal with defeat as well as pros do and despite of wanting to come back out here and get redemption, Im betting they wont be as able as many might think. Note:Clark is 1-8 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of UAB.

Play on North Texas to cover

Thanks to Georgias thunderous start to this campaign, Im betting that the lines-makers and public have got ahead of themselves and that we have value here with the underdog. Note:

Georgia has failed to cover 8 of their L/11 as conference home favorite  of  17 or more  points,. Meanwhile, South Carolina is 7-1 ATS as conference dogs of more than 15 points. Also from a personal perspective Im a big fan of  HC Shane Beamer,  and what he brings to this Gamecocks football program. Pride and grit Im betting gets us a slice of Georgia pie here this Saturday. 

Smart is 0-6 ATS  in home games after a cover as a double digit favorite as the coach of GEORGIA.

GEORGIA is 7-21 ATS  in home games after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game ( that happened vs UAB last week). 

Play on South Carolina to cover 

  The defending MAC champs Ball State had a game 8-game winning streak. come to end at Penn State.  Despite of losing to a top tier Big 10 team they did not look out of place and deserve respect here in Laramie this week.  Meanwhile, Wyoming,  beat Northern Illinois 50-43  last week, and Im having doubts about their overall ability to be a Mountain West contender.   

BALL ST is 22-6 ATS  as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BALL ST) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 28-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play on Ball State to cover

Both these teams worked hard for wins last week, and now with both in an emotional letdown situation, the offensive fireworks may start slowly, with home field advantage taking precedent for me with Memphis. note: Memphis is 9-3 ATS against SEC opposition with an above .500 record  including 6-1 ATS at the Liberty Bowl. 

CFB home team (MEMPHIS) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 28-6 ATS L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play on Memphis to cover

Northwestern is just 3-7 in its last 10 road games and do not instill confidence in being road favorites at an SEC venue , even though its at Duke. The Wildcats lost more returning production from last year  than any other FBS side, and cohesion going forward especially on the road will be an issue, especially with top tier defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz. 

NORTHWESTERN is 9-21 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite since 1992.

Fitzgerald is 17-32 ATS in the first month of the season as the coach of NORTHWESTERN.

Cutcliffe is 24-9 ATS  after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of DUKE. Cutcliffe is 20-9 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of DUKE.Cutcliffe is 33-16 ATS  after playing a non-conference game as the coach of DUKE.

Play on Duke to cover 

Purdue is 8-1 ATS  L/9 as 7 or more point underdogs , and the Boilermakers have cashed in the last three series meetings. Head coach Jeff Brohm has 18 starters back from last season, and deserve respect here as a pup vs a retooling Notre Dame program. 

Kelly is 8-19 ATS  off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite in all games he has coached since 1992

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PURDUE) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 28-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PURDUE) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 51-20 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Purdue to cover  

Kansas State has lost  QB, Skylar Thompson, to a knee injury , and there is no news on when he will return. So now we get to bet into a underdog line, on a home side, with a strong D, and viable enough attack to make life difficult for their Mountain West opponents Nevada.  I know Nevada beat Cal, but their ground game only produced 61 yards in that game and Im betting they have problems moving the chains again, via their ground game, and will bump into problems through the air vs the a under rated Kansas State secondary. The Wolfpack are 0-5 SU vs Big 12 . 

Kansas State to cover 

Gophers lost top tier  RB Mohamed Ibrahim for the season but still have enough backup talent to be able to cope with that loss behind RB Treyson Pott who rushed for a 178 yards and 2 TDS last time out. After watching the Gophers play Ohio State tough in their opener Im betting Fleck and company are under rated and deserve respect getting points even  on the road. 

MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS  after a game where they committed no turnovers over the last 3 seasons

CFB Road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games are 36-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Minnesota to cover

Indiana was humiliated by Iowa in a ugly 34-6 beatdown in their opener, and now need swift redemption against a top tier unit  in what Im betting is a must win situation for the Hoosiers here against a tough Cincinnati football program on a 11 game reg season win streak. Im bolstered and confident in backing Indiana after watching them smash Idaho last week, and feel strongly they dont go down without an all out fight here at home. 

INDIANA is 7-0 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. INDIANA is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons. Fickell is 1-5 SU on the road in  Big Ten play , including 0-5  SU when his team is above .500. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANA) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 79-34 ATS L/29 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover 

 Miami Fl QB D'Eriq King, leads this experienced  Canes team . King  Im betting will use  veterans  to punch through a over hyped Michigan State squad. Look for running back Cam'Ron Harris, tight end Will Mallory and receivers Mike Harley and Charleston Rambo to unload with big numbers today. Just a quick note: Losing to Alabama is not something that should impact a negative connotation towards Miami, and their close win vs a under rated and always tough App State side,  the Canes should be looked upon more favorably. On the flip side Michigan State beating a depleted and rebuilding Northwestern team and than an  a FCS side should also not suddenly catapult the Spartans to football god status. With that said, Im betting the right side is favored and there is value laying points at 7 points or less. 

Play on Miami fl to cover 

This is just to many points to pass up on according to my projections and power rankings. Because   of Ohios loss to FCS school last week Duquesne we have a tainted line to bet into here with the underdog . Im betting on Ohio doing what they do best and pounding the ball on the ground here which will eat up clock and help keep UL Lafayette off the field. 

The Bobcats are 8-0 against the spread in their last eight Thursday games. The Ragin’ Cajuns are just  2-8 ATS L/10 as a 14-point or more favorite.

CFB Road underdogs (OHIO U) - team from a second tier division 1-A conference against a team from a weak conference are 23-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ohio. to cover 

 David Shaw is sometimes a hard HC to read. His team behind two QBs looked lost offensively, despite of the D, showing some strong potential this season, losing by a 24-7 final score to Kansas State last week. In this conference opener I do expect ,Shaw to stick with one QB, and for the defence to pressure a vulnerable looking USC offensive line giving Kedon Slovis some issues  with distribution. 

Cardinal is 11-3 ATS L/14 as underdogs of more than a Touch Down. 

Shaw is 30-19 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of STANFORD.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (STANFORD) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 34-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Stanford to cover

Embarrassing is what must describe Vanderbilts opener vs a FCS school E.Tennessee State as they lost 22-3 . Wow. A new SEC low. However, now thanks to that ugly effort Im expecting a more wide awake Vandy crew here in game 2 vs Mountain West opponent Colorado State.

Note and Key trend: 17 returning-starter underdogs like the Commodores  in Game Two of the season are  18-2 ATS when coming off a loss of 15 or more points, and facing an opponent coming off a defeat l as Colorado State is. 

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO ST) - after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game, with an inexperienced QB as starter, in the first month of the season are 7-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (VANDERBILT) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 48-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. 

Play on Vanderbilt to cover 

Michigan is off a big 47-14 win vs MAC opponent Western Michigan in their first game out , but it must be noted  Michigan is 1-11 ATS L/12 facing Pac-12 opponents like Washington, including 0-7 ATS when the Wolverines are coming off a victory. MICHIGAN is 10-23 ATS   after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game. I know Washington lost in an upset to the Montana , but in the past the Huskies have proved resilient- as the program has gone  8-0 SU in its last eight games after losing as a favorite, and 22-11 SU against the Big Ten L/33 meetings.

WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 48-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 37-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

Play on Washington to cover 

Missouri won and covered the last time these teams met and now Im betting they will make a game of this tilt vs Kentucky as the dog covers for the 6th straight time in this series. Mark Stoops,  is a  bankroll depleting 3-10 SU in SEC openers for his backers , including 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS at home. 

Stoops is 0-9 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of KENTUCKY.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSOURI) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 27-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate.

Play on Missouri to cover 

Memphis true freshman QB  Seth Henigan looked good in a 42-17 victory vs FCS opponent Nicholls  in their first game , as he recorded a  19-of-32 mark  for 265 yards and a touchdown in his first career start. However, Ive rolled over some of the tape and just does not look polished enough to handle a steady Arkansas state defense and Im fading the Tigers vs a team that has revenge on board  37-24 loss at Memphis  las season. Note:Tigers are  2-13 SU in road openers and 0-4 ATS on the road under Silverfield, including 1-5 ATS when coming off a victory. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARKANSAS ST) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 27-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. 

Play on Arkansas State to cover 

Florida International has lost 7 straight games to FBS schools and despite of a win vs FCS school just dont look like they have it in them to defeat a up-trending program like Texas State who despite of losing 29-20 looked pretty good vs Big 12 opponent Baylor last time out  bringing home the cash as 14 point dogs. With a 17 players returning roster and a top tier QB in Bradie MacBride Texas State is a viable bet to win this game outright. Note: Texas State vs CUSA are 6-1 ATS and get the nod here. 

Play on Texas State to cover

. Georgia opened with a 10-3 win over Clemson in Charlotte on Saturday and now Im betting their in a letdown situation vs a staunch Sun Belt defense that is off a shut out and must be respected. Getting pumped up again vs UAB will be a difficult task for a Georgia club in a look ahead to South Carolina in their SEC opener. GEORGIA is 29-53 ATS   in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 or more points (GEORGIA) - solid team from last season - outscored opponents by 10 or more points/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are just 13-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UAB to cover 

Military Academies are  on a 39-8-1 UNDER run! 

Play UNDER

I don't like the way Temple is declining. They had a horrendous season last year, and now they started 0-1 after a 61-14 drubbing vs Rutgers  and have lost 5 of their L/6 road games SU and are fade material as this big a favorite, yes even against Akron. 

TEMPLE is 6-17 ATS against MAC opponents since 1992. Note: starting QB  D'Wan Mathis is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs Akron ( Foot ). 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 23-4 ATS L/29 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Akron to cover 

There is alot of returning production back from last season, and they must be respected as DD  underdogs vs a Notre Dame program that is retooling. Looking ahead to Big 10 competition next week, and in an emotional letdown state after a hard fought OT win vs Florida State last time out, Im betting we have an edge taking an explosive Toledo side getting points . 

The Rockets 11-4 ATS with a perfect record and are coming off a win of 28+  points, including 6-0 ATS L/6 in road tilts. (Toledo won last week( 49-10).

Fighting Irish are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.

Play on Toledo to cover 

Middle Tennessee State cranked it up offensively FCS opponent Monmouth, 50-15 and will come in there ready to keep an aggressive offensive mind set alive. Virginia Tech  Im betting will also take advantage of  Middle Tennessee State team that allowed 35.4 points and 446 yards per game last season. Last year, Virginia Tech averaged 31.1 points per game.

Play OVER

Illinois stepped up by taking down Nebraska  in week one of the season , but were in a massive  letdown spot the following week vs a under rated Texas State side and were upset . The up and down Illinois football side has proven fairly resilient in the past in this spot as they are 7-3 ATS away when coming off a SU favorite defeat. It must also be noted that  Illini HC Bielema is  6-0 ATS in his last six bounce back situations as a underdog when coming off a SU loss. The only  meetings in this series vs Virginia were won by Illinois. Both were  bowl games. I am not a big fan of what the situation is in Virginia or the type of recruiting that they have done, and last years 5-5 mark is a statement to that mediocrity. With that saidm  I'll recommend we take the point here. 

CFB  Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ILLINOIS) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 48-18 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Illinois to cover 

 Mike Norvell in his 2nd year in  Tallahassee Im betting is ready to shine. Yes, I know Florida state has not played great ball the last few seasons, but they are a talented bunch that is uptrending in my futures power rankings.With that said they deserve respect here vs a Notre Dame side returning only 9 starters and 3 on offense with two key contributors from last season gone ie (QB Ian Book /WR Javon McKinley).

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA ST) - terrible defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 57-24 ATS L/29 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida State to cover

Dino Babers is way down on my list for coaches. Talent meets preparation, and Babers fails on that examination front, as is evident by his teams inconsistencies during his tenor at Syracuse which includes a 1-10 record last season. Meanwhile, Ohio despite of being without retired HC Solich , still has he assistant and now head guy Tim Albin at the helm and will keep the system his predecessor honed the intact. 

Last year ,Ohio averaged 216.7 yards rushing per game behind RB De'Montre Tuggle l who averaged  7.6 yards per carry, 134.3 per game,  including 7 TDs. Stopping the run was an issue for the Orange last season   allowing an average of  32.7 points per game  and a whopping  209.2 rushing yards per game last season.

Ohio is 46-34 ATS L/80  as an underdog.

Play on Ohio. to cover 

Two teams with Big Ten title aspirations will meet in a key early season opener when No. 17 Indiana plays at No. 18 Iowa on Saturday afternoon in Iowa City.

In a game I have pegged as. a single score game taking points with what my projections estimate is the better side is deemed a viable wager .Indiana is off a strong  season under fifth-year coach Tom Allen, finishing with a  6-2 SU record   The Hoosiers are ranked in the preseason Top 25 for the first time since 1969 and must be respected. 

Hoosiers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.

Hoosiers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games.

Ferentz is 22-33 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of IOWA.

Play on Indiana to cover

New era begins with new HC Charles Huff, Jr. of Marshall and Im betting it will be a successful venture behind an extremely talented Navy is off a down campaign finishing 3-7 and Im not sure they have upgraded enough to get back to their glory form of recent past seasons. 

CFB Home underdogs vs. the money line (NAVY) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 5 or more straight losses, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 29-1 L/29 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors.

 CFB home team (NAVY) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 6-36 L/29 seasons for a 86% go against conversion rate.

Play on Marshall to win 

The'Canes Im betting will continue to uptrend that they bring. back 19 starters. Meanwhile,   Alabama is down  3  key players who finished in the top 5 of the Heisman vote, and return just 3 offensive starters . Hey I know what recruiting is like at Alabama and a few 4 and 5 star studs should make them a  national championship contender squad this season, but here today against a under rated side with plenty of experience and talent Im betting on the underdog covering. 

Play on Miami Fl to cover

The Badgers are banged up on the offensive line and Im betting they have problems today moving the ball vs a under rated Litanny Lions D, that despite of giving up 27 ppg on average last season, allowed an average of just 329 ypg (the Lions numbers were skewed by alot of offensive turnovers) . Note: The previous 3 seasons the Lion defense allowed an average of just 17 PPG and this season and more importantly here today their D Im betting stands tall. 

Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.Nittany Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September.Nittany Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.

Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 24-3 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87"% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Penn State Nitanny Lions to cover

AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

 My projections suggest we have value with Stanford in this non conference spot play.  The Cardinal  have plenty if  experience on offense especially the offensive line where Im betting they  can dominate vs a  KState side that looked flustered at times on defense last season.  . The Cardinal are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games and have covered  5 straight times vs  BIG12 opponents .Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog.Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Pac-12.

Play on the Stanford Cardinal to cover 

, Northwestern Wildcats  only return  8 starters and Im betting they down trend this season in Big 10 action. Meanwhile, Michigan state returns 16 starters, and have beaten the Wildcats in their last 2 meetings. I wont be surprised if the Magic of 3 rears its head here as my projections estimate an actual upset , thus getting points makes for a viable wagering opportunity. 

Fitzgerald is 17-30 ATS  in the first month of the season as the coach of NORTHWESTERN.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.Road team is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - with 16 total starters returning are 67-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season are 54-23 ATS L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan State to cover

Im betting Colorado smashes  Northern Colorado with offensive punch after offensive punch here tonight . The Buffs  averaged 4.6 yards per attempt and ranked 22nd in the nation in rushing yards per game vs top tier College Football opposition and here versus  a defense that gave up a whopping  5.8 yards per carry and nearly 250 rushing yards per game against FCS competition some big time output is my bet. Im also expecting Colorados incoming QB Lewis to highlight a strong arm and aerial phenomenons against a suspect Northern Colorado secondary.  On the flip side Im also betting on Northern Colorados spread offense to do more damage than the lines-makers expect vs a Buffs pass D that can be extorted and a D that allowed more than 32 points four times last season, and run D that was ranked 114th in the nation last season. 

Over is 5-2 in Buffaloes last 7 games overall. 

Play OVER 

 .

The Buckeyes look like an inexperienced bunch this season and  return just 2 seniors from the 2-deep chart and rank last in Top tier conference of 130 teams in returning yards gained offensive production . Meanwhile, Minnesota bring back 20 starters, including 7 seniors and 12 athletes from the 2-deep chart. This is a tough conference, and their are some surprises coming this season, and the Buckeyes inexperience may end up being a glaring issue. Advantage on the line for the Gophers. 

MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS  when the total is greater than or equal to 63 since 1992.Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Golden Gophers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.

Play on Minnesota to cover

East Carolina is a program that may surprise some pundits this season and more importantly tonight  against the Sun Belt perennials App State . Shawn Clark will  have to deal with  a inexperienced  QB at the helm of  the Mountaineers offense. Meanwhile  the Pirates return the most production  of  all the football programs in the  American conference . HC Mike Houston Im betting is ready to make big strides in his teams competitiveness this season in his 3rd year. Advantage on the line goes to East Carolina. 

Mountaineers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.

Mountaineers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Play on East Carolina to cover 

The Jacksonville St  defense allowed their  opposition to an average just 17.6 points in offensive output , 92.3 rushing yards, and 2.3 ypc in a 13-game campaign last season. With key contributors back Im betting they remain staunch. Meanwhile, the offense is also dangerous behind top tier prospect  QB Zerrick Cooper who was on the Heisman watch list after leaving Clemson. On the flip-side, UAB is also a strong team that could make a run for the CUSA championship. Their strength remains on their grinding run game on offense and a defense that returns 9 starters. With that said, Im betting on the Gamecocks strong run stopping abilities and their superior QB to help them stay within the number in this game and to get us the cover. 

Note: UAB went 1-3 ATS last season as a double-digit favorites. Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on field-turf.

JSU was  2-0 ATS  last season against FBS opponents.

Play on Jacksonville state to cover 

 The Buckeyes  come in here as underdogs , but it must be noted that they are a bankroll expanding  14-0 ATS as an underdog of 3 or more points since 2009. Im not amored by Sabsans group this season, especially defensively  as was the evident when they allowed the Gators to pop 48 pints on them , making them vulnerable against what I estimate is one of Ohio State strongest  football programs in years. 

The underdog is 5-1 ATS all-time in College Football Playoff Championship games .

Saban is 9-19 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more  rushing yards/game as the coach of ALABAMA
OHIO ST is 21-7 ATS L/28  as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points .



CFB Neutral field underdogs (OHIO ST) - outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games are 30-7 ATS L/28 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ALABAMA) - after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are  15-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Ohio State to cover 

The Ducks got into the Pacific-12 Conference title game only because Washington had to drop out because of coronavirus concerns. Oregon made the most of the opportunity by defeating host USC 31-24 for the championship and Im betting they will make the best of this bowl appearance. 

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (IOWA ST) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 22-12 L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

CFB  team (OREGON) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 or more  YPR), after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game are 35-9 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Oregon to cover 

 These teams Ohio State and Clemson  took part in a 29-23 Championship event last season and Im betting on another close tilt this time around that will see the underdog cover. 
Key will be the Buckeyes  top tier standard downs Success Rate in the nation, which has been an Achilles heel for the Clemson defense.

OHIO ST is 20-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992 . 

CFB team (OHIO ST) - excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 51-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Ohio State to cover 

Notre Dame had a fine campaign, but they were exposed by Clemson in a one sided loss late in the season. Its the Irish D, that showed the most promise this season, but the Tigers slashed them, and Alabama is a side that can and Im betting will do similar damage in what my projections estimate will end uo in a one sided Alabama victory. The Crimson Tide (11-0) topped 50 points six times and averaged 49.7 points  second-best nationally, and have the guns to dismember any team in the nation, including a Irish program I have a high degree of respect for. Bama  offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian Im sure detected and dissected  what Clemson did in the victory vs Notre Dame. NFL Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NOTRE DAME) - after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 98-164 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate.

Alabama head coach Nick Saban is 104-1 SU in his career when favored by 17 or more points. 

Play on Alabama to cover

Starting in the past three games, Georgia Bulldogs QB  Daniels has thrown for 839 yards, nine touchdowns and an interception in wins over Mississippi State, South Carolina and then-No. 25 Missouri. Georgia averaged 41.6 in those games after the Bulldogs scored at least 40 just once in the previous six games. So needless to say there is new offensive life in the Dawgs bark , and they will give Cincinnati's strong defense their biggest test of the season, according to my projections. Meanwhile, the Bearcats, offense , is led by quarterback Desmond Ridder, the AAC offensive player of the year who has 2,090 passing yards, with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has rushed for 609 yards and a team-high 12 scores and can move the ball against any D in the nation behind an assorted balanced group as Seven Bearcats have at least 186 yards and a touchdown receiving, led by Josh Whyle's 318 yards and five scores.  Im betting on alot more points here than the lines-makers are anticipating. 

CFB  teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-4 OVER L/5 seasons for 91% conversion rate.

Play OVER

 Army Head coach Jeff Monken is 3-0 so far with the Knights in bowls and the program has won four straight going back to 1986. I have alot of respect for this HC, and his ability to have this team ready to play West Virginia here today. 
W VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS  as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less since 1992. 

CFB  team (ARMY) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 6 points or less last game are 35-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.


CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (W VIRGINIA) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 20-11 SU L/10 seasons . 

Play on Army to cover 

The Bulldogs (3-7) will make a school-record 11th consecutive bowl appearance, while the Golden Hurricane (6-2) will play in their first bowl since 2016 when they meet on New Year's Eve in the Armed Forces Bowl at Fort Worth, Texas.

Tulsa behind a top tier D had a fine season, but Mississippi State is a power 5 team from one of the strongest conferences in the nation and deserve our respect here in this spot.  It must be noted noted that. the underdog dog is 5-1 ATS in the last six Mississippi State  bowl games  and HC Mike Leach stands tall with a  26-11 ATS as a road dog against sides like Tulsa with a better record. Considering ACC bowl sides are just 1-5 ATS L/6 vs a the ACC, it was not a hard decision for me to pull the trigger with the Bulldogs. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MISSISSIPPI ST) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored 107-59 ATS L/28 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

Play on Mississippi State to cover 

 Mayo Bowl - Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC

Wisconsin at 3-3 on the season  is getting far to much respect here in a rebuilding year. I know Wake forest finished the season, on a 0-2 run but ot must be noted that head coach Dave Clawson,  when off consecutive losses, is a bankroll expanding  10-0 ATS when the last loss was a  double-digit ATS defeat, which was the case . Clawson is also 8-0 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games as the coach of WAKE FOREST.

Take the points with Wake Forest to cover 

Colorado used to be a member of the Big 12 conference and it must be noted that when Texas played  the Buffs they smashed them  in five straight games by an average margin of 32.8 points. I know these are different manifestations of these football programs, but from a matchup perspective my projections. make the Longhorns DD favs in this spot thus we have value based on my numbers. 

Key to this tilt: Colorado had the 13th-highest rushing rate in the country this season, keeping the ball on the ground on 60% of its offensive possessions. However, the Texas  defense has been close to spectacular slowing the run this season, ranking 36th in the country in Rushing Success rate  allowing 3.6 yards per carry, rankings 25th in the nation. Advantage Longhorns. 

Texas HC Herman is 16-5 ATS  in non-conference games in all games he has coached with a the average ppg diff clicking in at +22.6 ppg. Texas is 3-1 in the Alamo Bowl, including a 38-10 win over Utah last season. With Herman at the helm of the program Texas is 3-0 in bowl games, winning by an average of 17.3 ppg. 

Play on Texas to cover 

  The W.Kentucky Hilltoppers rank fifth in the conference in scoring defense (24.1). They lead Conference USA in pass defense, allowing 170.1 yards per game and Im betting they are well suited to slow down Georgia States attack. Meanwhile, on the flip side the Toppers, are offensively unstable and have only averaged 18 ppg away from home this season, and Im betting their inability to score will once again be on display today in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. 

Two strong sides off of champinship games losses, are not looking as viable as they did earlier in the season. 

Hawaiis offense has not been as explosive as it has been in recent seasons, and that was evident in their 3 road games where they averaged 17 ppg. Meanwhile, the defense has not looked as bad as recent incarnations, and the program under Graham  now looks different  rankingn in the top 30 for Success Rate. This season Hawaii has had success via their run game, as the  rushing attack is top-10 in the nation in explosiveness while maintaining a Line Yards rank of 26th. Considering their current form and the way the Warriors play, Im expecting them to look to grind this clock down with a run heavy attack, and remain conservative in their game plan vs a Houston side that has run hot and cold on offense all season long. Note: Houstons HC Holgorsen is 9-1 UNDER in December games in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 55 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

Florida Atlantic after allowing 20 points or less in 6 straight games, finally looked flat last time out in a loss to Southern Miss . With that said, Im betting on the FAU getting back to business and showing us how tough their D can be, against a Memphis side that is  known for top tier offensive assaults. Note: Memphis HC Ryan Silverfield, is  1-7 SUATS in its last eight bowl games, including 0-5 SUATS the last five overall.  Meanwhile, the Owls, are 4-0 SUATS all-time in bowl games .

New Orleans Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Superdome - New Orleans, LA

The Tigers took a backward step this season from an offensive perspective and  ended the regular season going under the total in three straight tilts against FBS opposition while overall ranking of 99th in Rushing Success Rate and 109th in Line Yards . The Tiger just cant run the ball well thus making them easy to read. That will once again be the case vs a staunch Florida Atlantic D, that allowed 20 points or less in 6 straight games before a lackluster effort in their final game of the season vs Southern Miss, but that was because of their run D, something Mempjhis will not be able to exploit in the same way . Meanwhile, on the flipside the Owls offense has struggled all season long ranking  115th on offensive standard downs Success Rate. Considering both sides of offensive discrepancies and than adding in Florida Atlantic's top tier stopping unit, has me recommending we take the under. 

 CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (FLA ATLANTIC/ MEMPHIS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) after 7+ games are 36-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The matchup pits two of the top offenses in the country against each other. UCF ranks second in the nation in total offense (585 yards per game) while BYU is 10th (510 yards per game). The game features two of the best quarterbacks in the nation. I look for both teams to tee off on each other and for this to be a one possession game that favors the side getting points according to my projections. 

BYU is 0-6 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 2 seasons. Sitake is 0-7 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of BYU.

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (BYU) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 9-21 SU L/10 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

UCF to cover 

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID

Despite the Green Wave overall good defensive numbers they have had issues against top tier passing sides,  as is evident by  defending pass explosiveness, ranking  124th in the nation. Meanwhile, Nevada QB Carson Strong finished the season as one of the  top passers in the  nation, ranking sixth among all quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage. So Im betting the Wolfpack have some cohesiveness through the air today, and will look downfield quite alot knowing how tough the Green Wave run defense can be. On the flipside one again, Tulane does like to run the ball alot that can grind down the clock, but new New offensive coordinator Chip Long formerly with Notre Dame after having two week to prepare for thsi tilt, will be ready to throw some new stuff into the mix and Im betting Nevada wont be able to deal with it all that well. This is not a conference game, and will be played alot less tightly than those type of affairs thats why I expect this total to be eclipsed. 

CFBeams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (NEVADA) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with a poor defense (390-440 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 43-14 OVER l/28 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER

The Mean Green own  one of the fastest offenses of all FBS ranking second in tempo and this team takes a no prisoners approach to moving the chains through the air. I know App State owns a tremendous secondary, but I still expect N.Texas to do a degree of damage while their own D, which ranks outside the top 100 in tackling, Line Yards and Finishing Drives. App State has not always had alot of flow on offense this season, but the offensive line has still  produced a top-30 ranking in Line Yards and Power Success Rate and Im betting they have a great deal of success today in what promises to see a combined score that eclipses the total. 

Play OVER 

Tulsa has a fine hard working defensive group and have made large strides this season and deserve respect but not my backing as DD underdogs in this spot. The reason Im willing to lay this much lumber with the Bearcats is because this is a top teir group on a national level, while Tulsa despite of a top 25 ranking is not. Tulsa just does not in my humble opinion have the guns to hang with Cincinnati as this game moves into the 2nd half. 

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (TULSA) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a top-level team (80% or more) playing a team with a winning record are 1-27 SU L/5 seasons for a  97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -15.3 ppg. 

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

After a slow start Stanford has finally started to operate optimally, as they have now won three stragijht games all on the road.  Now this sweek, Im betting on the Cardinal flow and momentum to continue upward vs a UCLA side in an emotional letdown scenario after blowing a DD lead to USC last week, and finally succumbing to a loss. The Cardinal have ewon 11 of tne L/12 meetings in this sseries SU and will not be easily disposed of this week. STANFORD is 32-17 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game. STANFORD is 13-4 ATS  in December games since 1992. UCLA is 1-7 SU and 0-7-1 ATS L/8  in Last Home Game of the season features.

Play on Stanford to cover 

 Clemson has revenge on board for a loss to Notre Dame earlier this season, and odds are they will probably get it , but Im betting ti wont come easily. In the first meeting  the Irish outrushed the Tigers by  208- 34, count and that was not a fluke. On the flip side  they were able   to stop cold  Clemson RB Travis Etienne  allowing him just 28 yards on 18 carries. .  It must also be noted that same-season revengers in conference championship games when they sport a  better record are 0-12 SU L/7 seasons .  Add to that Notre Dames QB Ian Book owns a  30-3 SU record as a starter for the Irish and in my humble opinion is a better sgnal caller than all world QB Lawrence and we have a go to take points here with a Fighting Irish side that deserves respect as DD dogs. 

Play on Notre Dame to cover  

Wisconsin has lost 3 straight games and score a total of 20 points in those tilts and are now being asked to cover by almost 13 points. Im not buying in on this number, and instead suggest we take the points with Minnesota side that will grind away on the ground behind the legs of Mohammed Ibrhim the  Big Ten Conference Running Back of the Year . The hard driving kid needs just  75 yards to reach 1000 yards and will be key here to the Gophers being competetive. MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS  after a game where they committed no turnovers over the last 3 seasons and are 5-1 ATS L/6 visits here. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

The two longtime SEC rivals meet in their regular-season finale Saturday afternoon at Baton Rouge, La. Ole Miss needs this game badly as they look for a Bowl invite.LSU (4-5) can't have a winning record and is bowl ineligible after self-imposing a postseason ban amid an NCAA investigation into the program and are not and motivated and thus fade material here for me this week. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (OLE MISS) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against a terrible defense (6.2 or more  YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 29-2 SU L/28 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors wirth the average ppg diff clikcing in at +23.2 ppg. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LSU) - in conference games, off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less are 8-24 ATS L/5 season s for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

The Buckeyes (5-0, 5-0 Big Ten) are looking to cement their spot in the College Football Playoff despite critics contending they haven't played enough games and weren't impressive when they did play.  Northwestern (6-1, 6-1) knows the odds are against it, just as they were in the 2018 conference title game, which the Buckeyes won 45-24. This time around I like the chances of Northwestern being a little more competetive after a season that saw them see a  9  PPG  increase on offense and 9 less PPG on defense from last season.  Note: Underdogs in Big Ten conference title game is 7-1 ATS all-time. 

Fitzgerald is 13-2 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games as the coach of NORTHWESTERN.  Fitzgerald is 20-6 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play as the coach of NORTHWESTERN.

Play on Northwestern to cover 

The Ducks and No. 15 Trojans will  play for the Pac-12 championship on Friday night at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. My projections make the Trojans 6 point favs here vs what my power rankings suggest is an over rated opponent. 

USC is 20-7  L/27 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

CFB home team vs. the money line (USC) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (21-28 PPG), after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 26-2 SU l/5 seasons with the ppg diff clicking in at +17.4 ppg.

Play on USC to cover 

The Buffalo Bulls  Jaret Patterson leads the nation in rushing at 205 ypg.  However, the Ball State Cardinals own    the best run defense the future NFLer has faced to this point in the campaign as they have given up an average of just 148 yards per game. It must also be noted that Ball State  also owns the second-best offense that Buffalo has faced this season. Considering the Bulls have shown some inconsistencies on defence this season with some breakdowns, as was the case when thye recently allowed Kent State to score 41 points on them  it will not be a hard decision here to take points here. 

BALL ST is 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.BALL ST is 6-0 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or mkore yards/game over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Ball State to cover 

Rutgers has looked very competitive of late winning 2 of their L3 while Nebraska has ,lost 3 of their L/4 and continue to have issues with offensive flow averaging just 22.4 ppg on the season. There is no way Nebraska deserves to be more than a 3 point fav here if at all and recommending we take the points with the Scarlet Knights. 

Frost is 0-6 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive unders as the coach of NEBRASKA. Schiano is 18-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEBRASKA) - after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games are 43-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Rutgers to cover 

Marshall (7-1 overall, 4-1 C-USA) holds an 8-2 edge all-time against UAB (5-3, 3-1), including a 5-0 mark inside Joan C. Edwards Stadium. The only loss the Thundering Herd have  was two weeks ago against Rice by a 20-0 count. While it may not have been a complete fluke is was a very strange event, and now after a week off and redemption on board vs UAB im betting there will be a huge pent up demand to smash this or any opponent mercilessly . Note: Marshall won its first seven games, climbing into the top 15 in the national rankings for the first time since 1999. The Herd also spent multiple weeks in the College Football Playoff rankings for the first time in program history and deserve our respect here at a TD or less. UAB is 6-16 ATS  in road games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.

Play on Marshall to cover 

BYU is coming into this game off a loss to Coastal Carolina last time out and will be primed to come out here with a huge effort at home in the land of the Mormons. Quote: "It hurts," Milne said. "I think that happening honestly just put a chip on our shoulder, that we're not done yet. We've got a lot more to say, and we'd like any opportunity we can to just go prove ourselves." END Quote. The Cougars rank seventh in the nation in scoring offense (44.5 points per game) and total offense (522.7 yards per game) and Im betting after having to endure a strong defensive side last week, will now be acclimated to take another staunch D and will have more success. 

CFB Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (BYU) - outrushing their opponents by 60 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 41-17 ATS 28 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettlors. 

Play on BYU to cover 

The “Crosstown Rivalry” battle of LA goes this Saturday.
The 4-0 Trojans if they win today can get into the conference championship game, but Im betting the already motivated Bruins will feel even more empowered to knock the wind out of the Trojans championship hopes with a win of their own.  UCLA is 3-1-1 ATS as home dogs of 8 or fewer points. USC is 6-16 ATS in December games since 1992.CFB home team vs. the money line (UCLA) - after beating the spread by more than 7 points in three consecutive games, in the second half of the season are 36-6 SU L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate and a perfect 6-0 SU this season. 

Play on UCLA to cover 

TCU will host Louisiana Tech on Saturday in Fort Worth, Texas. TCU is coming off a huge win as pups last time out but it must be noted that 

TCU is 0-15 ATS L/15 as a favorite of more than three points coming off a win as a dog which is the case going into this tilt vs LA Tech vs HC Skip Holtz who is  8-1 ATS during the regular season against sides coming off a SU underdog victory.

. Note: HC Patterson of TCU when coming off a Straight up win as a underdog victory, going  g 0-12 ATS L/12  when favored by more than 3 point 

TCU is 1-8 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

Play on LA Tech to cover 

Craig Bohl’s Cowboys have covered  4 of their L/5 in this series vs Boise State   . Bohl also owns a   9-0 SU winning streak at home and must not be underestimated in his ability ofr his side  compete here vs the Broncos.  Note: Boise state  is  being outgained by -10 net yards per game,  while  Wyoming is out yarding their opposition by 95 yards per tilt. Advantage Wyoming. 

Play on Wyoming to cover 

Houston has under achieved this season, and despite of being in desperation mode as they look for a Bowl invite, Im betting if they find a way to win, it wont come easily vs the 6-3 Memphis Tigers who are  4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS L/5  in this series while having covered 9 of their L/12 at home as underdogs.  Note: Houston because of covid issues have not played since Nov 14, which was a win vs defensive hapless South Florida. Rust and flow issues are my bet here in. atilt that favors Memphis and not the Cougars. HOUSTON is 3-11 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. HC Holgerson has failed to cover 18 of his L/24 games with rest. 

Play on Memphis to cover 

We have a very low total attached to this game but rightly so. Since 2005, games between two of the three service academy teams have gone 36-9-1 to the under. And the Army-Navy matchup, specifically, has  gone under 14 of the L/15 times. Rinse and repeat in another grinding affair between these two rivals. 

Play UNDER

Coastal Carolina is off a huge win vs BYU last time out and now going on the road will be in a vulnerable emotional letdown situation.

TROY is 7-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.

The Trojans are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs of more than 10 points since becoming a Division-1 program in 2001 and must not disrespected  or underestimated in this spot. 

Play on the Troy Trojans to cover 

Rice upset a strong Marshall side last time out and deserve respect behind a strong secondary that had five picks in the above mentioned underdog win. Meanwhile, UAB hasn't played since Halloween and since then, leading WR Austin Watkins has decided to skip the rest of the season.RICE is 13-4 ATS L/17 off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points.RICE is 16-4 ATS  in home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. RICE is 25-6 ATS  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

CFBUnderdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (RICE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 55-22 ATS L/28 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Rice to cover 

The Demon Deacons (4-3, 3-3 ACC) have played once since Oct. 31 -- a 59-53 loss Nov. 14 at North Carolina and held a full practice on Saturday, it was its first since Thanksgiving Day. The Deacons are a rusty team, and are at a disadvantage here mon the road this week. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (WAKE FOREST) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams ( 440 or more  YPG) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 23-3 SU L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Louisville to cover 

Ball State enters this tilt in top form as is evident by having  allowed season-low yardage in each of their last two tilts , with  QB Drew Plitt  passing for  300-yards  in both games  including 6 Touch down passes. Im betting on more of the same top tier action here at home today vs a Western Michigan team that is over rated according to my power rankings mostly because of a pourous defence that allows an average of 35 ppg. 

 MICHIGAN is 2-10 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons. W MICHIGAN is 3-11 ATS  after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons.


CFB home team vs. the money line (BALL ST) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better) are 44-9 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate and perfect 6-0 so far this season/.

Play on Ball State 

Its become obvious to me that Georgia is just not as explosive as recent incarnations of the program, and are getting far to much respect here in the road in this SEC matchup vs Missouri. Note:   Georgia has questions at quarterback. Starter Stetson Bennett took a hard hit and injured his shoulder on Saturday. He left the game in favor of D'Wan Mathis, who struggled as a starter in the season opener against Arkansas and has seen limited playing time since.  Considering that Stetson is less than 100% and may not play at all I like the Tigers chances according to my projections of getting us a cover here this week. 

CFB  team (GEORGIA) - off 2 or more consecutive overs, a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) after 7+ games are 16-42 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Missouri to cover 

Due to Santa Clara (Calif.) County’s COVID-19 restrictions, San Jose State is forced to leave home  at UNLV’s old stadium. Thats not a conducive situation for success as Im sure their flow will be thrown off to some extent. Advantage Nevada.

Play on Nevada to cover 

After a long trip back home from Hawaii  after having their undefeated season abruptly end  Im expecting Wolf Pack... who have failed to cover the last five meetings in this series at home to once again feel the pinch in this key game vs a Fresno State side that deserves respect as an underdog. 

CFB home team (NEVADA) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals are 13-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEVADA) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 16-43 ATS L/28 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Fresno St to cover