Coach Chip Kelly has 19 returning starters in the lineup and come into this season with experience and momentum after outgunning 3 of their L/4 opponents last season. Meanwhile, the Bearcats despite of being fairly solid team  , are 0-4 ATS L/4 in non conference home games and according to my projections could get lit up by QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson and RB  Joshua Kelley who could have a big day vs a D, that has lost their 3 top players from last season.  With instate rivals Ohio State on deck, we may not see the Bearcats fully focused and unreliable favs. 

Play on the UCLA Bruins to cover 

The weather forecast in Hawaii is calling for hefty winds that are being estimated at   14 mph  for the entire course  of the game with nasty Gusts   30 mph expected. It must also be noted that despite of having star QB at the helm of the Hawaii offence, in Junior QB Cole McDonald , the coordinators do not run a speed formation, and it is methodical in nature. Meanwhile, Arizona with Khalil Tate  back at QB, and J.J. Taylor returning at RB after a 1,434-yard season that ranked 6th nationally will once again focus on their ground attack to move the chains which will eat up precious clock time. Im liking the under here in this Paradise Island game between a PAC 12 opponent and MWC foe.

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (ARIZONA) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, with 8 defensive starters returning are 35-11 L/seasons for a 76% conversion rate! 

Play on the UNDER 

Both teams were of the top tier variety on the defensive side of the ball last season, with both ranking in the top-25 nationally for total defense. Im betting on more of the same this season, and for this particular battle to be won on the defensive side of the ball in the trenches. Look for Redshirt freshman QB Jarren Williams to do more than enough to get the Canes to the promised land and get us the cover. 

This is a huge instate non conference  rivalry game that Im betting will be hard fought, thus making getting points a value investment option. 

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in August.

Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. ACC.Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.

CFB road team vs. the money line (FLORIDA) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 3-23 SU L/27 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate ( Average ppg differential clicks in at +12.5 ppg which makes this a strong ATS selection based on these above perimeters.)

Miami Fl to cover 

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Alabama and Clemson can score against the best of defences, behind two of college football best QBs, Trevor Lawrence of the Tigers and the Crimson Tides Tua Tagovailoa. Yes, both these football teams  have top tier defences, but unlike last season Alabama's 24-6 victory vs the Tigers in the play offs last season, this time around Im betting the points will come fast and furious between these two behemoth opponents. ***( Field conditions are expected to be  good here in Santa Clara with all new turf in place)

Clemson has averaged 44.3 ppg on offence this season while Alabama has averaged 47.7 ppg.

ALABAMA is 7-0 OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63 this season with a. combined average of 70.7 ppg scored.

HC Swinney  in his L/19 road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better as the coach of CLEMSON has seen a combined average of 64.2 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Alabama has gone 14-0 SU against the nation's No. 23 schedule while Clemson' is 14-0 record has come against the nation's No. 32-ranked schedule  Alabama has won 16 straight tilts  while Clemson has won 14 in-a-row. According to my data, and power rankings these teams are evenly matched from an overall perspective and Im betting the points will be golden here in the National Championship game. 

ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS  in road games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 rushing or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons. CLEMSON is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.Swinney is 11-1 ATS in road games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season as the coach of CLEMSON. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 38-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Clemson to cover 

ROSE BOWL - Rose Bowl Stadium - Pasadena, CA

Washington is a defence first team that will try to grind this clock down n methodical fashion vs an explosive Ohio State football team. Im betting they have enough success eating clock time to help keep this game on the low side of the total. 

Washington's HC Petersen is 13-4 UNDER vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season in all games

WASHINGTON is 7-1 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 38.3 ppg. 

CFB  Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 57 (OHIO ST) - excellent offensive team (440 YPG or more) against a team with a good defense (280 to 330 YPG), in non-conference games 35-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 57 (WASHINGTON) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 39-12 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

FIESTA BOWL - State Farm Stadium - Phoenix, AZ

UCF has won 25 straight games, and what Im betting  to happen here is that despite of them going against a very strong SEC team, without their starting QB McKenzie Milton, they wont go down without a fight . Look for highly talented backup Darriel Mack who led his team to a 56-41 come from behind victory vs Memphis in the season finale to lead this team again, and for this very athletic and deep UCF group to get us the cover . With almost a month to prepare for the Bayou Tigers, Im very sure the Knights  will be very ready to compete. 

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LSU) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are just 13-42 ATS L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UCF to cover 

Kentucky plays a less conservative style of football in non non conference games, and have gone over 4 straight times vs non conference opponents and Im betting they open up here a bit this Tuesday and a game that Im betting will go over the total. 

Penn States HC Franklin is 9-1 OVER in games played on a neutral field in all games he has coached with a combined average of 62.8 ppg scored.

Over is 5-0 in Nittany Lions last 5 non-conference games.Over is 6-1 in Nittany Lions last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Over is 6-1 in Nittany Lions last 7 neutral site games.Over is 5-1 in Nittany Lions last 6 games on fieldturf. Over is 8-2 in Nittany Lions last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 10-3 in Nittany Lions last 13 games following a straight up win.Over is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Over is 9-3 in Nittany Lions last 12 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 9-3 in Nittany Lions last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 20-7 in Nittany Lions last 27 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Over is 7-3 in Nittany Lions last 10 games following a ATS win.Over is 13-6 in Nittany Lions last 19 games overall.

PENN ST is 9-1 OVER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 66.6 ppg. PENN ST is 10-0 OVER  in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 74.2 ppg. PENN ST is 6-0 OVER when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 58.9 ppg scored. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (KENTUCKY/PENN ST) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in January games are 29-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

TAXSLAYER BOWL - TIAA Bank Field - Jacksonville, FL

The Aggies are a physical team that can both run the ball well, and stop opposing run games. Im betting they make NC State one dimensional via the pass, which will make them easier to read. Meanwhile,  they themselves will pound the ball relentlessly on the ground, which will make for fast game that eats clock and keeps the total combined score on the low side of the number. 

NC STATE is 11-2 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.6 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (NC STATE) - after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored are 77-36 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (TEXAS A&M) - in non-conference games, with 8 offensive starters returning are 42-13 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

HOLIDAY BOWL - SDCCU Stadium - San Diego, CA

The Northwestern offense, has struggled at times this season, but they are still capable doing some damage here vs a top tier D.  Northwestern Im betting will have a lot more 3 and outs then first downs and will spend alot of time on the field defending a underrated Utah offence that has proved explosive at times this season, scoring more than 40 points 4 straight times, at one juncture of the season while averaging 37.7 ppg over a 8 game stretch. With that said, my projections estimate that the Utes put upwards of 30 points on the board, while Northwestern hits in the low 20s , in a game I have pegged to exceed the total. 

HC Whittingham in 18 games  versus poor rushing teams - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry with a combined average of 61.1 ppg were scored and I his L/29 games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread has seen a combined average of 54.8 ppg scored

.Play OVER 

LIBERTY BOWL - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

This total has been bet up since its opening with sharp money but still holds value even at this number to the over according to my own projections. 

Missouri is an explosive offensive side having averaged 36.9 ppg this season, while Oklahoma State has averaged 38.4 ppg.  Both defences have been less than spectacular with OK St allowing 34.6 ppg on the road, while Missouri has allowed 29.4 ppg. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 10-0 OVER after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 86.2 ppg scored and is 8-1 OVER after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 77.8 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

LIBERTY BOWL - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

We all know the Big 12 is all about offence, but when it counts there are teams like Oklahoma State that can be counted upon to make key stops. What Im betting here today is for the Cowboys to go toe toe and punch for punch with Missouri offensively, but in key junctures of the game to show their ability to stand tall. You have to remember Oklahoma State took on some extremely explosive offenses in Big 12 action  (ie Oklahoma ) and stood tall, losing by just one point 48-47 count, and have the capabilities to not only cover here but pull off the upset as more than TD dog. 

Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.Cowboys are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.Cowboys are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game 

MISSOURI is 3-12 ATS  in December games since 1992.

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

REDBOX BOWL - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Michigan State has shown a propensity to not to be able to the move the chains consistently against any team  for most of this season. Their games are ugly in the trenches affairs, and the Spartans are like vultures just waiting around for fumbles and turnovers in an effort to try to find the end zone. Im betting the trend continues and Oregon musters out a win vs my nomination for  the Ugly Betty football team of the year. 

MICHIGAN ST is 6-16 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and  10-28 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. 

OREGON is 30-9 ATS  L/39 after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half and  20-8 ATS after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OREGON) - off a double digit road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oregon to cover 

Pitt found its identity in a bruising rushing attack that leaned on the explosiveness of senior running backs Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall and nothing will change today as they will move the chains via their ground attack and eat up alot of clock time in the process. Meanwhile, Stanford is a one dimensional team that throws the majority of the time, and among all 129 FBS teams, only Washington State had fewer rushing attempts this season than Stanford. With no Bryce Love in the lineup today, as he sits out preparing for a NFL career, the Cardinal will be easy to read and their ability to go vertical will be a challenge, as well as getting points on the board.With that said, Im betting on this combined score not to eclipse this total. 


PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in road games after the first month of the season this season with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 14-4 UNDER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.2 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 10-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 49.8 ppg scored.

STANFORD is 19-8 UNDER in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game with a . combined average of 47 ppg scored.



CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (STANFORD) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) are 40-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 46.4 ppg scored.

Play UNDER ( Late Steam)

Oklahoma has a record-setting quarterback too, in Kyler Murray. The Sooners led the FBS in scoring offense with 49.5 points per game and are capable of lighting up anyone including this tough Alabama D. Oklahoma, however, ranked No. 96 in scoring defense (32.4). With the Tie equally explosive in my humble opinion, the only way the  Sooners  have any chance of winning or being competitive in  this tilt is for this to be a shootout. Which Im betting it will be.  Both Alabama and Oklahomas QBs do a lot of damage right out of the gate. Tagovailoa, has a 207.3 passer rating with 27 touchdowns and two interceptions in the first half and Murray,   has also been  explosive in the first half, this season with a 215.2 passer rating, 25 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Meanwhile, Oklahoma, ranked No. 13 in red zone offense and scored 42 touchdowns in 63 visits. Alabama scored 48 touchdowns in 68 red zone visits. This has the making of an epic high scoring battle, and the total is not high enough. 

OKLAHOMA is 9-1 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 95.5 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 105.6 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA is 21-9 OVER L/30 when the total is greater than or equal to 70   with a combined average of 83.5 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

ARIZONA BOWL - Arizona Stadium - Tucson, AZ

The Red Wolves completed the 2018 regular season with an 8-4 overall record and as the Sun Belt Conference West Division co-champions.Nevada completed its regular season with a 7-5 overall record and finished tied for second in the Mountain West Conference’s West Division. My cross reference power rankings suggest that Arkansas State has the edge. 

 ARKANSAS ST is 12-3 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1992.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS ST) - off a double digit road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Arkansas State to cover 

CAMPING WORLD BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

West Virginia quarterback Will Grier will not participate in the Camping World Bowl against Syracuse as he begins preparing for the 2019 NFL draft. Thus we have a situation where Im betting this total is just to high. 

SYRACUSE is 7-0 UNDER in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons, which happened in their last game of the reg season.SYRACUSE is 31-16 UNDER L/47 in road games in games. 

Play UNDER 

MUSIC CITY BOWL - Nissan Stadium - Nashville, TN

Purdue got some very good news when Jeff Brohm turned down Louisville and stayed at Purdue , and he now gets a huge amount of respect from the kids he coaches, and Im now betting they will play hard for him in this tilt against the Tigers. The Purdue offense finished 14th in the country in yards per play at 6.53 and Im betting Auburns pedestrian attack will not be able to keep up. Look for QB David Blough  who  completed 66.6% of his passes, and he threw for 25 touchdowns to shine in this Bowl tilt and lead his team to a cover. 

PURDUE is 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Purdue to cover 

This is essentially a home game for Baylor here  in the Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. With key WR Jalen Hurd out for the Bears, some might think their now not a viable choice here, but they would be mistaken, as the Bears have a couple of options at their disposal and ready to reset their look vs a Vanderbilt D, that has looked atrocious at times this season. 

Baylor HC Rhule is 10-2 ATS in road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game in all games he ha coached and  29-15 ATS  as an underdog in all games he has coached. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BAYLOR) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 73-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Baylor

PINSTRIPE BOWL - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY

The Miami Hurricanes will face off against the Wisconsin Badgers in the 2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.A year ago, Miami went through the regular season at 10–2 before losing to Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl and now revenge is on board. Miami after a mid season swoon,  went on to win its final two regular- season tilts against Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh in dominating fashion, largely because of its defense that ranks No.2 in the nation in Total D.  With that said, Look for the Badgers passing game to stall vs an impressive Canes secondary and for their key mode of moving the chains RB Johnathon Taylor to find the sledding tough vs a staunch physical D. Meanwhile, Miami will find a way to score enough points here vs a inconsistent Wisconsin D and get us the win and cover. 

MIAMI is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games after a win by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons.MIAMI is 8-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Richt is 8-0 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Miami fl to cover 

PINSTRIPE BOWL - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY

Both these teams have solid defences, but when they played last year in this Bowl game the Badgers won 34 to 24 vs Miami Fl, and Im expecting a similar scoring output this time around by both sides.

Over is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 vs. Big Ten.

Over is 10-3 in Badgers last 13 games following a ATS loss.Over is 6-2 in Badgers last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.Over is 18-7-1 in Badgers last 26 games following a straight up loss.Over is 5-2 in Badgers last 7 games in December.

Over is 10-2-1 in Badgers last 13 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

CFB  teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MIAMI) - off a win against a conference rival, in December games are 43-19 OVER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

INDEPENDENCE BOWl - Independence Stadium - Shrevport, LA

Temple has put alot point son the board this season, but Duke's a team that has shown some strong  D ,  and is capable of slowing them. Meanwhile, Duke 's offence has really struggled coming into this game, scoring 6 and 7 points in back to back games and now vs a staunch Temple D, their output Im betting will once again be muted.

DUKE is 7-0 UNDER  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 40 ppg scored and 7-0 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored and is 6-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 season with a combined average score of 43.3 ppg scored.DUKE is 7-0 UNDER L/7 off 2 straight losses against conference rivals with a combined average score of 37.7 ppg scored.

TEMPLE is 16-3 UNDER after allowing 9 points or less last game with a combined average of 44.2 ppg going on the board. 

Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TEMPLE) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 39-13 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

CHEEZ-IT BOWL - Chase Field - Phoenix, AZ

Following a seven-win regular season that saw the Golden Bears rank among the best defensive teams in the country, the young men from Berkeley look like the matchup well vs TCU. The Golden Bears won four of their next five games with victories at Oregon State and against Pac-12 champion Washington starting the run and more than capable of upending a  inconsistent  and over rated TCU side. 

Cal has played twice in the game now known as the Cheez-It Bowl with victories in both contests and get the nod again.

TCU  is 12-26 ATS in all games over the last 3 seasons.TCU is 3-11 ATS  in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.TCU is 0-6 ATS with rest or after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.

CALIFORNIA is 9-2 ATS  in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on California to cover 

 QUICK LANE BOWL - Ford Field - Detroit, MI

Georgia Techs option offense that leads the nation in rushing will pound the ball continuously today against.ground today. Meanwhile, Minnesota, via a more traditional run game will also pound the ball on the ground all day . With that said, Im betting this is going to be a very fast Bowl game that eats alot of clock time . This will result in a lower scoring game than the lines-makers are expecting. 

Johnson is 14-3 UNDER  when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of GEORGIA TECH with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored.

Under is 4-0 in Golden Gophers last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Golden Gophers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Golden Gophers last 5 games in December.Under is 6-2 in Golden Gophers last 8 non-conference games.Under is 5-2 in Golden Gophers last 7 games following a straight up win.

Under is 6-2 in Yellow Jackets last 8 bowl games.Under is 5-2 in Yellow Jackets last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (GEORGIA TECH) - in non-conference games, with 8 offensive starters returning are 41-13 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL - Ladd-Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL

Buffalo lost the MAC championship in heart breaking fashion vs N.Illinois (30-29) , and Im betting will still be feeling the effects of that  today vs Troy, which will make for a less than spirited effort from the Bulls. I know Buffalo's Tyree Jackson is extremely talented , but the quarterbacks pocket coverage from his line has been shoddy at times this season. In the Bulls’defeat vs Army, Jackson was 10 of 24 for just 152 yards.    Troy is another hard nosed team , that owns the nation’s 23rd-ranked scoring defense allowing just  (21.2 points per game) and not allowed any of their last opponents more than 21 points and  Im betting Buffalo struggles to score consistently in this one. Meanwhile, I also expect Buffalos much abused secondary to stand tall here, with a month to prepare for this game and for Troy to end up running the ball alot more than expected as this tilt progresses, helping this score stay on the low side of the Total. 

BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER  in road games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.TROY is 10-2 UNDER after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game.

Play UNDER 

Troy plays a strong brand of hard nosed  defensive old school football that Im betting will give Buffalo's some times prolific offence problems.  That was the case when Buffalo lost the MAC Championship to N.Illinois another team that plays a similar type of football to Troy. 

Note: Troy has not allowed more than 21 points in its L/5 games. 

BUFFALO is 2-12 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

TROY is 8-0 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons

TROY is 7-0 ATS  in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasonsTROY is 6-0 ATS  in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.

CFB team (BUFFALO) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28) after 7+ games, after a loss by 3 or less points are 14-39 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Troy to cover 

ARMED FORCES BOWL - Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

 Army via their triple option can grind away at the clock and will take their time doing it vs an explosive Houston team. This will be an attempt to take the Cougars out of their  offensive flow.  Much in the way the Cadets did vs Oklahoma ( 28-21 loss in OT) .With that said look for and expect a combined score that stays on the low side of the number. ARMY is 12-2 UNDER in road games against American Athletic conference opponents with a combined average of  43.7 ppg going on the board.ARMY is 8-1 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 39 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

BIRMINGHAM BOWL - Legion Field - Birmingham, AL

We all know how many points Memphis can put on the board behind an explosive offence, and how many they can allow behind an atrocious defense. Wake Forest also knows about the freight train coming their way, because their on the proverbial train track as the Tigers come chugging right for them. So what do you do when something like that heads your way. You of course naturally get out of their way and avert them. Thus what Im betting happens here this week, is that the Demon Deacons will implement a run attack that eats this clock up as much as possible as to circumvent the Tigers flow, and throw them out of whack. Being off for almost a month will also see these offenses get out of the gate slowly and for fewer points than expected to go on the board. 

WAKE FOREST is 31-16 UNDER L/47 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play with a combined average of 51.5 ppg scored.MEMPHIS is 21-9 UNDER  after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored with a combined average of 59.1 ppg scored.

key injury updates:[WR] 12/15/2018 - Greg Dortch is "?" Saturday vs Memphis ( Finger )QB] 11/05/2018 - Sam Hartman is out for season ( Leg )

[RB] 12/12/2018 - Darrell Henderson is OUT Saturday vs Wake Forest ( None ) He is Memphis best player and sets up the option well. 

Play on the UNDER 

GASPARILLA BOWL - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL

USF struggled in the 2nd half of the season trying to stop the run and Im betting Marshall comes at them with their ground game. Meanwhile,USF  don't run the ball well, which is not a good omen for moving the chains as their  offensive line  should really find the going  tough day against an over powering Herd pass rush. When the MU defensive front is rested and fresh, the sacks come in bunches as was evident this season as they recorded three or more seven times. The Bulls have also allowed 34 sacks on the year. With Marshall expected the run the ball a great deal today and USF struggling to throw or run, points Im betting will be limited in this slower then expected game that eats up clock time in a hurry. 

Under is 5-2 in Thundering Herd last 7 Bowl games.Under is 5-2 in Thundering Herd last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Thundering Herd last 7 bowl game.

Under is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 games on grass. Under is 9-3 in Bulls last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. Under is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 home games.Under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 Thursday games.Under is 17-7-1 in Bulls last 25 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 21-9-1 in Bulls last 31 games following a straight up loss.

S FLORIDA is 15-4 UNDER  after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored.. 

Play UNDER 

FRISCO BOWL - Toyota Stadium - Frisco, TX

Ohio's Frank Solich has an explosive offensive team, but San Diego State despite of 3 consecutive losses to finish out their season are a side that must not be underestimated , especially with HC Rocky Long on the side lines. With that said, in a battle, that will feature the Aztecs’ No. 4 ranked rush defense (95 YPG and 2.7 YPR) and Ohio’s big time rushing offense (262 YPG and 6.1 YPR) I feel a stalemate type of game will be played with the points eventually proving to be golden. 

Long is 9-2 ATS  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450  or more yards/game as the coach of SAN DIEGO ST.SAN DIEGO ST is 11-2 ATS in road games after a loss by 3 or less points which happened in Hawaii In their last game of the season.

OHIO U is 1-10 ATS   L/11 in road games after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

Play on SD State to cover 

 CAMELLIA BOWL - Crampton Bowl - Montgomery, AL

I was little surprised at how this line opened, so I looked as deep  into this bowl game, and found no key injuries or news that would effect it. Georgia Southern is a very good team and own a 9-3 record compared to Eastern Michigan’s 7-5 recored. Yes, Eastern Michigan is a tough under rated team, but despite of being competitive don't have a killer instinct and consistently find ways to lose close games. Meanwhile,  Georgia Southern should have more of their fans here than  E.Michigan, because of the proximity of the location of this football game, and thus have more support in what will likely be a mostly empty stadium. Bottom line:

Georgia Southern is pound the ground type of offence , ranked 9th in the nation ( rush offence ) 260.8 ypg and  have an advantage vs E.Michigans, 93rd ranked rush D that allows an average   4.43 ypc, and 192.9 ypg. The Southern Eagles get my support here on a short line. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (E MICHIGAN) - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are just 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover 

Eastern Washington hosts UC Davis on Saturday with a spot in the FCS Playoffs semifinals.These two teams met less than a month ago in a game that saw Eastern emerge with a 59-20 victory. So now theirs an inclination for public bettors to look at the over here as viable wager. In my usual contrarian fashion, I think this total is bloated and that we have value wth an under wager here according to my projections even though both these teams have prolific  offensive attacks. I do expect to see a lot more from the ground game from UC Davis in this rematch as they try to slow E.Washington down. On paper it looks like a shootout, but from a strategy perspective a more muted methodical and targeted effort from both sides won't come as a surprise. 

Play UNDER 

 When Military Football Academies get together to play (Air Force, Navy, Army), points and offence are always lacking in what almost always results in a low scoring game . Its usually a war in the trenches, in what  is a take no prisoners physical confrontation. DEFENCE, DEFENCE, and more DEFENCE Im betting is on todays agenda. The UNDER is 32-8-1 for a 80% conversion rate since 2006. 

Play UNDER 

KSU has the third-longest active home winning streak in FCS at 15 games and is one of five programs with a winning streak of 10 or more games. QB Chandler Burks has started 36 consecutive games at QB and has led the Owls to a 31-5 (.861) record. He is also 17-1 as the starting QB inside Fifth Third Bank Stadium. If South Dakota State wins here today Im betting it won't come easily.

Take the points with Kennesaw State to cover 

Maine Black Bears visit Weber State on Friday night in a key FCS play off tilt. These are two tough defensive teams. Maine allows 21.6 points per game (Weber State allows 21.0). Weber's rushing attack of Josh Davis and Treshawn Garrett  are a key mode of moving the chains  but will have tough sledding; Maine allows just 74.5 ground yards per contest, second-best in the country, and 295.3 per game overall. Im expecting a very physical affair played in cold temps today, and for this contest to stay on the low side of the Total. 

Play UNDER 

BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

Thanks to Ohio State absolute obliteration of Michigan last week, 62-39, we have a nice value line to bet into backing Northwestern. When a team like Ohio State exerts that much emotional and irrational exuberance in one game, an emotional letdown scenario usually follows them into the next game. We all know that Ohio State has consistently played down to opponents this season, and that despite of their defence playing well last week, have showed themselves over and over again to be porous to say the least. Urban Meyers has failed to cover 5 straight as a DD conference favorite, while the Wildcats HC Pat Fitzgerald is 8-1 ATS L/9 as a DD dog and overall 7-1 ATS in conference action this season. 

NORTHWESTERN is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 2 seasons.NORTHWESTERN is 21-8 ATS  in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.NORTHWESTERN is 6-0 ATS  as an underdog this season. 

HIO ST is 2-11 ATS after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 season.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NORTHWESTERN) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 45-17 L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OHIO ST) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team ( 80%or more ) playing a good team (60% to 80% are 26-61 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

The dog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven Big Ten title games and Im betting the pup or cat if you wish grabs the cash again.

Play on Northwestern to cover 

MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID

These teams have played some low scoring games of late with the last meeting in early November seeing Boise State win a 24-17 squeaker . But now in contrarian fashion Im betting we see a significant uptick in point production this time around behind  teams  that boasted top-25 scoring offenses this season. In the last game scoring chances  effected the total score as the  Bulldogs' last two drives ended with a blocked field goals and a fourth-down incompletion after they reached the Boise State 23-yard line with 1:18 remaining.

Fresno State senior Marcus McMaryion has completed 258-of-366 passes for 24 touchdowns and three interceptions, and he is ranked No. 7 in passing efficiency. Boise Senior Rypien has completed 286-of-416 passes for 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions, and he is ranked No. 11 in the FBS in passing efficiency. He set Mountain West career records for passing yards completions in the earlier victory over Fresno State, and he had his league-record 21st 300-yard passing with 310 against Utah State. Look for these two guys to shine here today, and for a  much different type of game than the public are anticipating. 

Boise State in their L/63 games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game since 1992 have seen a combined average of 59.5 ppg scored and in their L/59  tilts  vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game have seen a combined average of 64.3 ppg go on the board. 

Play OVER 

MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID

Boise State won the last time these teams met  24-17 right here on the Blue Carpet back in mid November, thanks to  dominating that game in the final quarter . Im betting they use the momentum of their last meeting to keep on trucking here, and once again come out of this for their 11th straight victory at home in this series. With the said,Im betting  on Boise State capturing the MWC title  and more importantly getting the all important cover as short chalk .

HC Harsin is 7-0 ATS  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25 or more yards/play in all games he has coached . 

Play on Boise State to cover 

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA 

This  is a rematch of last year’s National Championship game and its being  played on the same field . I felt Alabama was fortunate to get the win last season, and just got by the skin of their teeth in OT by 3 points thanks the heroics of Tide QB Tua Tagovailola. Now the Dawgs who are 6-1 ATS L/7 with SEC revenge and have cashed 6 straight times as underdogs in this series are the team I recommend backing as Georgia according to my rankings actually matchup well vs a side, that has yet to be tested this season. REVENGE , REVENGE. Georgia covers.

GEORGIA is 10-2 ATS vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons. GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. 

CFB Neutral field underdogs (GEORGIA) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 23-3 ATS L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Georgia to cover 

California  has been outgunned in 4 straight games  and was pounded by Colorado last week, and somehow still found a way to win. The Golden Bears  biggest problem is that just can't score, and   have  failed to gain 300 yards overall in four straight games.  Today however, Im betting their luck  will run out against a team that is much better than their record might indicate. Bottom line here is you have to score to beat Stanford,  and Cals  passing game is  less than viable, and the running game is putrid in trouble against strong Cardinal defensive front .The Bad News Bears are not going to be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Stanford has won 9 straight meetings in this series and the L/4 here at Cal dating back to the 2010.

Last week, Stanford beat UCLA 49-42 , but that a good omen as STANFORD is 20-4 ATS  in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored and HC Shaw is 7-0 ATS in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored.

Play on Stanford to cover 

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Floyd Stadium - Murfreesboro, TN

The Blue Raiders have won five of its last six games overall and five in a row over C-USA opponents, and their home winning streak is at seven games going back to last season.  UAB has a great D, but HC Rick Stockstill  also has a tough hard nosed D, and that was evident on Nov 24 of this season UAB was soundly beaten by Middle Tennessee State 27-3 and repeat performance is not out of the question according to my own projections in the rematch for the CUSA Championship.  

Note: [RB] 11/25/2018 - Spencer Brown is "?" Saturday vs Middle Tenn St ( Undisclosed )

UAB is 3-12 ATS L/15  in road games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games  .MIDDLE TENN ST is 16-6 ATS  after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (UAB) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 1-33 SU L/26 seasons for a 97% go against  conversion rate for bettors witht he average point differential clicking in at 21.6 ppg. 

Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover 

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Floyd Stadium - Murfreesboro, TN

The Blue Raiders have won five of its last six games overall and five in a row over C-USA opponents, and their home winning streak is at seven games going back to last season.  UAB has a great D, but HC Rick Stockstill  also has a tough hard nosed D, and that was evident on Nov 24 of this season UAB was soundly beaten by Middle Tennessee State 27-3 and repeat performance is not out of the question according to my own projections in the rematch for the CUSA Championship.  

Note: [RB] 11/25/2018 - Spencer Brown is "?" Saturday vs Middle Tenn St ( Undisclosed )

UAB is 3-12 ATS L/15  in road games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games  .MIDDLE TENN ST is 16-6 ATS  after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (UAB) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 1-33 SU L/26 seasons for a 97% go against  conversion rate for bettors witht he average point differential clicking in at 21.6 ppg. 

Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover 

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Oklahomas body of work this season  despite of star QB  QB Kyler Murrays heroics have  not impressed me, with their only really top tier outing coming vs West Virginia. The Sooners are erratic to say the least as their defence has allowed 46, 47, 40 and 56  points in the last four games and the word champion if they win today must be used loosely. I know Texas may not inspire bettors either as they have been extremely inconsistent. but they did win this seasons Red River clash 48-45 handing the Sooners they're only loss, and have now covered 6 straight in this series. 

Longhorns HC Tom Herman is 12-1 ATS as a underdog, including 7-0 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points.

TEXAS is 6-0 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more  rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA is 0-6 ATS after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game this season and is 2-10 ATS  in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. 

 CFB team (OKLAHOMA) - revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite of 7 or more, after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 12-45 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB team (OKLAHOMA) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 14-41  ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas to cover 

Marshalls D, has been stingy this season allowing an average of 20.3 ppg, while VTech has had problems consistently putting points on the board as is evident by scoring 23 or less points in 5 of their L/7 games overall. This game has some significance for the Hokies as they need it to have change for a Bowl invite, while Marshall has a Bowl invite all ready in their back pocket, and are just playing spoilers here today. Look for these two Virginia/West Virginia rivals. to g head to head in a hard fought lower scoring affair that stays on the low side of the number. 

CFB team against the total (VIRGINIA TECH) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 26-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 UNDER  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 44.5 ppg scored.

Virginia Tech has gone under11 straight times when com-ing off a win where they threw for less than 200 yards with no score in the subset going over the 51 point plateau. 

Play UNDER 

PAC 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levis Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

The  Washington Huskies upset Washington State last week in a 28-15 emotional filled event that will have them in a letdown scenario this week. It will be hard for them to get up to the same energy levels as last week, vs a tough physical Utah team that can make life miserable for them in the trenches   I know Washington beat the Utes back in September but since than Utah is 7-1 SU and  are 4-1 ATS as underdogs with conference revenge and 5-1 ATS when getting 6 points or less. Washington before last weeks  Apple Cup victory were on a 6 game ATS losing streak and looked far from being championship calibre team. Note    Utah is 15-0 SU in games not played on the weekend  and 5-0 SUATS the last five overall .

UTAH is 19-6 ATS L/25 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or more). WASHINGTON is 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (UTAH) - outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season are 33-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Utah to cover 

MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Ford Field - Detroit, M

The Bulls (10-2, 7-1 MAC) won the MAC East Division title Friday with a 44-14 win at Bowling Green, and face Northern Illinois (7-5, 6-2) for the MAC championship. My own projections make this opening total just to low.We all know N.Illinois is a defence first team, but to beat Buffalo they are going to have to score. With that said, Im on the over here out of the gate.

I have Buffalo scoring 27+ points and N.Illinois scoring 24+ points. BUFFALO in 12  road games when they score 22 to 28 have seen a combined average of 56.7 ppg go on the board. 

N.Illinois in their L/33 November games have seen a combined average score of 59.5 ppg go on the board. 

 Play on the OVER 

BYU (6-5) knocked off a ranked opponent on the road earlier this season and is more than capable of turning the trick again as they have the added incentive of needing to  notch back-to-back wins to get bowl eligible. I know Utah is a top tier team, but when these programs have met in the past records  and stats go out the window, as 17 out of the last 20 games in the Holy War have been decided by seven points or less.BYU is  also 21-3-1 ATS as a road dog with revenge, including 14-1 ATS against opposition with at least one loss on the season like Utah. With No. 17 ranked Utah looking ahead to next weeks PAC 12 championship game, expect the unexpected. Take the points. 

BYU is 6-0 ATS in road games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

BYU to cover 

Notre Dame deserves to be in the top 6 teams in the country, and despite of USC having an off year, they are still extremely talented with a deep recruiting class. With that said, I wont be surprised if the Trojans play their best game of this season this Saturday for the Irish to may not be so lucky. It must also be noted that the Trojans are 6-0 ATS as home pups  with a below .500 record and the visitor in this series i 0-5 ATS L/5 meetings and USC is 8-3 ATS when hosting this series.

NOTRE DAME is 0-9 ATS  off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more since 1992.

CFB Road favorites (NOTRE DAME) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 6-25 ATS since 1992 for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on USC to cover 

 The Governor's Cup matchup at Louisville's Cardinal Stadium between the Cardinal and Wildcats is best summef up by the following quotes: 

"In a rivalry game you can throw the records out the window," Stoops said. "We're worried about ourselves and playing the best football we can and just finishing.

"I think anytime you play a rival, the guys on the other side are going to play harder," said Louisville interim coach Lorenzo Ward, whose Cardinals (2-9) haven't won since a 20-17 decision over Western Kentucky back on Sept. 15. "It's about pride, so you can throw the records out. Regardless of how a season's gone, it's still the same as if we were undefeated."

Key Trend:KENTUCKY is 1-11 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons

Take the points with Louisville to cover 

New Mexico State beat Liberty 49-41 in their first meeting this season and matchup well against them. Meanwhile, Liberty D, is currently a shambles, has allowed an average of 40.4 ppg on the season.

Liberty HC Gill is 1-9 ATS after playing 2 straight non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - in a game involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games are 54-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on New Mexico State to cover

Rice at 1-11 might not inspire bettors but Old Dominion despite of some upsets this season have for majority of the time played down to their opponents, and are never a safe bets as a favorite especially on the road. 

RICE is 22-10 ATS  in home games when playing against a team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992. RICE is 25-10 ATS  in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.

RICE is 44-25 ATS as a home underdog since 1992.RICE is 31-16 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.Wilder is 7-16 ATS  after playing a non-conference game as the coach of OLD DOMINION.

CFB team (RICE) - after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 59-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Rice to cover 

Michigan is a team on a mission this season, but their going into a place that will be extremely unwelcoming, against a side that has won 6 straight and 13 of their L/14 games playing with a chip on their shoulders as they have been shredded for being pretenders because of  what many are saying is a weak defence.  Today in contrarian fashion I expect the Buckeyes D, will stand tall, and for super star QB Dwayn Haskins and company to make Michigan amazing D, to look human.

Ohio State are  7-1 ATS L/8 as home dogs versus .900 or better opposition , and a perfect 8-0 100%  ATS as home dogs of +2.5 or more points. Ohio State under HC Urban Meyer is  is 102-10 SU at home on his career, with only four losses by more than 4 points.

CFB  Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO ST) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 37-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Ohio State Buckeyes to cover 

AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Baylor's offense has   failed to score 20 points in four of its last five games. Meanwhile, HC Kingsbury  of Texas Tech said he wasn't sure if McLane Carter (high-ankle sprain), Jett Duffey (knee) or Bowman (partially collapsed lung) would be available, and with the QB situation the way it is I wont be surprised if the TT offence is sluggish. 

For both teams, this is their last chance to keep their season alive and earn bowl eligibility.Thus Im expecting a hard fought physical affair, that ends up on the low side of the number.

BAYLOR is 6-0 UNDER  as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51 ppg. Rhule is 20-7 UNDER after playing 3 straight conference games in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined 46.8 ppg going on the board. 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (TEXAS TECH) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG), after allowing 475 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games  are 38-15 UNDER for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Herd comes in playing its best ball of the season, winning four of their last five games while holding their three last opponents to season low in yards.  With some important  play off implications on the line here today, I expect Marshall will be primed to bump Florida International off here because if FIU wins they advance to the championship game. Add to that they have revenge on board for a 41-30 loss at home the last time these teams met, and you have a motivated Marshall team in top form to back. 

CFB Road favorites (MARSHALL) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 58-21 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

 Marshall to cover 

When this season started the pundits expected Washington to be  one of the best teams in the nation. They are still a fine team, but have subsequently lost their lustre with losses to Utah, California, and Oregon. ( The 3 losses came by 4, 3, 2 points respectively and the games could have gone either way)  But now with redemption at hand this senior group of Huskies can upset the Apple cart with a win vs a Washington State (10-1, 7-1 Pac-12)  football program playing for its first conference title in 16 years and its first trip to the College Football Playoff. A win in this tilt will also propel Washington into the PAC 12 championship game where they will have a revenge scenario vs Utah to take care of. 

  WSU HC Mike Leach has a fine team, and are a top tier group who deserve respect  .  But Washington State has not faired well in this series and are  0-4 SUATS the last four, 1-7 ATS as a favorite and 0-5 ATS at home and Im betting wont get the cheese for their betting backers.

Play on Washington Huskies  to cover 

Oklahoma  football program owns a 19-1 SU record  in their last twenty overall away games, and 17-0 SU in their last seventeen conference away games and Im betting that streak continues  when the the dust settles here tonight in this tilt vs the West Virginia Mountaineers. I know the Mounties must be respected with  future NFL draft pick Grier under centre, but Dana Holgorsons  football crew just cant seem to get over the hump and have failed miserably against to tier football programs in the recent past going just 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS against .900 or better conference opp. The status quo remains in effect again, as West Virginia finds a way to lose this tilt vs a side that needs a win and to guaranteed a shot at the Big 12 Championship crown.

Holgorsen is 0-10 ATS  after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of W VIRGINIA , which has just happened. 

Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover 

On a current 23 game win streak, UCF is feeling pressure to stay undefeated. After their huge win last week vs Cincinnati on National TV , this talented athletic group might find the attention their getting detrimental to their ability to  focus. Meanwhile,  USF their opponents a  team that despite of struggling of late is capable of making life difficult for their opponents behind a strong offence that has averaged 31.2 ppg at home this season. UCF won last season in a 47-42 shoot out vs Charlie Strong's group, but South Florida won the previous 3 meetings and are 7-2 SU L/9 in this series, and get the nod tonight. 

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCF) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team ( 80%) or better  playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 18-48 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the South Florida Bulls to cover 

Virginia and Virginia Tech prepare to do battle in a game I have pegged to be closely contested. I know VTech has lost 4 straight, but Virginia is struggling a little bit as well, as the Cavs have lost 2 of their L/3  . Virginia is also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 in November and 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday games and are not as strong a side as some pundits might think. Vtech has won 10 of the L/14 meetings in this series when hosting  and Im betting if the Hokies lose today it wont be by more than the point spread. 

VTech has won 14 straight meetings in this series.

 CFB team (VIRGINIA TECH) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 39-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on VTech to cover 

The Bulls took their first conference road loss of the season last time out in Ohio in. a surprising 52-17 loss. Now at 9-2 overall and 6-1 in the Mid-American Conference, Buffalo will play at Bowling Green this week with a chance to clinch to MAC East Division title. With redemption on their plate for their ugly loss to Ohio and with the MAC East title on the line Im betting on a huge effort from the Bulls versus a  out gunned Bowling Green side.

BOWLING GREEN is 1-9 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons with the average point differential clicking in at 15 ppg. 

CFBhome team (BOWLING GREEN) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 7-32 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

CFBRoad favorites (BUFFALO) - average rushing team(+/- 40 RY/G) against a terrible team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG after 7+ games, in conference games.  are 40-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover 

Two long instate SEC rivals the Mississippi State  Bulldogs and Mississippi Rebels  go head to head this Thursday night in a game  that I have pegged to be alot closer than the lines makers are estimating. This tilt is referred to as the  Egg bowl , and in Ole Miss finale this Thursday I expect they will play this like a Bowl game and leave everything on the field. Remember Ole Miss cannot play in a real Bowl game because of NCAA sanctions and penalties. Look for Rebels  super star WRS, A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf, who all could be first-round picks in the 2019 NFL Draft to go all out here in what will their final college football games of their careers. Last years game was physical and closely contested with the Rebs coming away with a 31-28 win, after blowing a big lead. With that said, I look for another war here and for the points to end up being golden. 

The Rebs are 7-3 SU  and 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 home Egg Bowls

Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Underdog has cashed 5 of the L/6 meetings. MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-6 ATS  after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons Miss State has failed to cover 3 of their 4 road games this season.

CFB team (OLE MISS) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 39-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover 

Mississippi State erupted for 52 points against Arkansas  , marking its fourth game of 45 or more points of the year. We all know what Mississippi Rebs defence is like, while the Rebels offence is equally explosive. I know Ole Miss defence is solid and must be respected, but  Ole Miss quarterback Jordan Ta'amu, ranks second in the FBS with 3,831 passing yards and put points on the board against the best of teams . Tonight Im expecting a back and forth slugfest that will see the total eclipsed.

OLE MISS is 6-0 OVER against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 69.5 ppg scoredOLE MISS is 7-0 OVER  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 72.2 ppg scored.OLE MISS is 7-0 OVER  after game with 50 or more pass attempts since 1992 with a combined average of 69.1 ppg scoredOLE MISS is 6-0 OVER n home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 73.2 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

N.Illinois plays a methodical brand of football, that results in slow grinding low scoring games. 
N ILLINOIS is 9-2 UNDER in all games this season with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. More of the same sleepy action is on board tonight vs Western Michigan. 

N ILLINOIS is 6-0 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging  425 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43 ppg scored  . W MICHIGAN is 6-0 UNDER  after a playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons and  is 10-1 UNDER in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs,

CFB team against the total (W MICHIGAN) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 27-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Rebels  pulled off  huge upset last time out  when they beat the San Diego State Aztecs as 24-point dogs, 27-24. Im betting they use the momentum of that game to buoy them here in Paradise Island tonight vs a tired looking Rainbow Warriors side that has put alot of air miles  on their bodies this season. 

HAWAII is 0-11 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.UNLV is 6-0 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons

CFB  road team (UNLV) - off a win against a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 44-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB  home team vs. the money line (HAWAII) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games against opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 5-29 SU L/22 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UNLV to cover 

Last season  the Washington State Cougars were upset  in Tucson  against the Arizona Wildcats  as road chalk  by a 58-37count and now revenge is at hand for the Cougars at home here in Pullman this week.   I know Khalil Tate is a star QB, and gives Arizona a chance when he is healthy , but this is not a good situation for the Wildcats as they will have problems on the defensive side of the ball dealing with the Cougars deadly aerial attack and a overall 10-0 mark in the ITS battles. 

 ***Cougars quarterback Gardner Minshew II, the nation's leader in passing yards per game (385.2), and a Washington State attack that leads the nation in passing yards per game (392.3). The Wildcats rank 10th in the conference in total defense (417 yards per game) and ninth in pass defense (248.7 yards per game).

 WASHINGTON ST is 10-0 ATS  after gaining 325 or more passing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. ST is 6-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons with a average ppg diff of 14.2 . ARIZONA is 1-10 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games.

Play on the Washington State Cougars to cover 

This PAC12 matchup has the making of a big time take no prisoners  shootout. Arizona State offence has been very steady of late scoring 38,38,31 points respectively in their L/3 and here against a inconsistent Oregon D I'm betting they have a similar output in this spot. Meanwhile, Oregon despite of their inconsistencies their offence has been very explosive at home averaging more than 43 ppg, and Im betting they fire back with some fireworks of their own , in a tilt that I project will eclipse this total.

The two most recent meetings in this series over the L/2 seasons have seen 72, and 89 total points go on the board. 

OREGON in their L/8 against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average score of 69.8 ppg scored.OREGON is 18-7 OVER in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 62% or worse with a combined average of 67.7 ppg scored. OREGON is 21-7 OVER  in a home game where the total is between 63.5 and 70 with the combined average score clicking in a 70.8 ppg. 

Oregon has gone OVER 14 straight times at home coming off a loss where they failed to cover with the average combined score clicking in at  73.3 ppg. ( The Ducks lost at Utah last week 32-25)

Play OVER 

The last 2 weeks have seen the Longhorns  put  40+ point explosions on the board which Im betting is an anomaly and I'm also betting they fall back down to earth here this Saturday at least from a offensive perspective vs a Iowa State side that has allowed an average of  just 18.7 ppg on the road this season, I expect the Cyclones  a team that has scored just 23 ppg on the road behind  a  methodical approach, to slow this game down to a crawl, which will result in a score that stays under the Total. 

IOWA ST is 11-1 UNDER after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons

TEXAS is 6-0 UNDER  in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.TEXAS is 10-1 UNDER  after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 season.TEXAS is 7-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons. 

CFB team against the total (TEXAS) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 24-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Georgia Southern is in the precarious position of coming into this road game in an emotional letdown situation after facing Troy last week at home and losing, which puts an end to their Sun Belt East conquest. It must be noted that Coastal Carolina Chanticleers do not make alot of mistakes , which is not a good omen for a Georgia Southern side, that has a 21 turnover margin this season. Georgia S. has failed to cover 6 straight vs teams like Coastal that have one or less turnovers a game on average. The Chanticleers have two games left and they need to grab a win to be bowl eligible, which makes them motivated home dogs. 

CFB Favorites of -175 to -400 vs. the money line (GA SOUTHERN) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced after 8+ games, in conference games are 9-22 SU L/26 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover 

Senior citizen Hall of Fame coach of the year HC Bill Snyder in his final campaign  before retiring has had a down year, but still must not be discounted at home as the   Red Raiders come knocking. With Texas Techs Freshman  star QB Alan Bowman out with a collapsed lung injury Texas Tech will go with backup QB Jett Duffey who despite of looking good against Texas last time out, is still not ready for whats coming here in this nasty road  environment where the home team needs wins desperately to go Bowling this season and help their long time coach go out with hands raised. It must be noted that Snyder is 32-3 SU at home against opponents off consecutive losses like the Techsters are, including 11-0 ATS vs.400 or better opposition.

CFB ( TEXAS TECH) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 12-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  77% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB  road team vs. the money line (TEXAS TECH) - off 2 straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more against opponent off a home win are 3-33 L/10 seasons for a 91%  go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on KState to cover 

Im a big supporter of Tennessee and really like the way the seniors and veterans of this football program have stood up for Rocky top. The defence has been terrific of late, against sub par offences, but will be tested in a big way this week when free wheeling run and shoot Missouri a team  that has averaged 35.5 ppg of offence this season and allowed 32.5 ppg in road games . Missouri has scored 63 and 50 points respectively in the last two meetings in this series and are viable bet to come close to those outputs again. Im betting the Vols will do their best to answer back in no quit fashion, which will result in a higher scoring game than many of the pundits expect. 

MISSOURI is 16-4 OVER after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers with a combined average of 65.8 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

Louisiana Tech’s offense is led by junior quarterback J’Mar Smith has 13 passing touchdowns with eight interceptions and 2300+ passing yards and two rushing touchdowns and can light up the board in conservative duel threat fashion against the best of defences, which Southern Miss owns . Meanwhile, LA Tech is also solid defensively, but Im betting  Southern Miss should do fine here today no matter which one of their QBs starts ( Jack Abraham or Tate Whately). Im expecting more points than the low total estimations which are based on defensive stats alone. 

Play OVER 

 Northwestern clinched the Big Ten West crown last week by  taking out the Iowa Hawkeyes and Im betting they won't be as motivated here this week in what should be a natural letdown situation. . Meanwhile, Minnesota  upset and pounded the Purdue Boilers, 41-10, as a 10.5-point home dog.   The  Gophers still need one win in their last two games to go bowling and will  go all out here to beat Northwestern  , because the following week sees them go to Wisconsin.  I know Northwestern somehow clinched the West this season, but they are far from being a top tier side, as is evident by an offence that is  ranked No. 112 in the nation and that has been out yarded by an average of 23 YPG. Add to that Minnesota has also had this game circled  and have revenge on board for a nasty 39-0 loss in Evanston last season and you have a viable wagering opportunity backing the home dog Gophers\. 

MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS off a upset win as a double digit underdog. 

CFB  road team vs. the money line (NORTHWESTERN) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival are 3-33 L/26 seasons for a 92% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Minnesota Gophers to cover 

A come-from-behind upset win over No. 22 North Carolina State and controlled fashion, now has Wake actually talking Bowl invitation. The 27-23 win was methodical in nature, which is different than how the Demon Deacons have played their games this season. Meanwhile, the  Panthers have alot to play for  as well, with a clear path ahead to the ACC title game against Clemson on the horizon. With that said, look for both teams to be conservative in their approaches today with neither wanting to make mistakes, which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the lines makers expect. 

PITTSBURGH is 8-1 UNDER in road lined games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.3 ppg going on the board.PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored  and  is 7-0 UNDER  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 44 ppg going on the board.PITTSBURGH is 12-3 UNDER in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450  or more yards/game. 

Clawson is 23-9 UNDER in home games after playing a conference game in all games he has coached with a combined average of 47.3 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Both these teams need wins to be Bowl eligible which will make for a hard fought game. TCU rushing attack was down right bad last week vs West Virginia, but  should do much better here vs a Baylor side  that  is a league worst against the rush allowing 183.8 yards a game on the ground. TCU has  the best third-down defense in the league, limiting opponents to a 33.1 percent conversion rate in those situations (47-for-142).Baylor, strength offesnively has been meanwhile,   third downs by converting 45.5 percent (66-for-145) , but in a close game TCU D, looks set to be the difference maker. 

 CFB Road favorites (TCU) - after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning are 33-7 ATS L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on TCU 

Boise  State is coming off a huge win vs Fresno State at home last week by a 24-17 count, and should now be in an emotional letdown spot coming into this game against New Mexico. I know the Lobos don't inspire bettors, after a disappointing season and 5 straight losses, but according to my own projections this point spread and taking points with the home dog has value attached to it. Look for the backfield of Tyrone Owens, Zahneer Shuler, and Ahmari Davis, and Daevon Vigilant  to churn out yards and get us the cover. 

Note :the last time the Lobos played a team at home of Boise States calibre they hung with San Diego State losing by just one TD, so its not like they cannot be competitive, because they have proven they can.  Head coach Bob Davie’s tenure  is due to end. but Im betting he will have his troops primed to pull off an upset here in what will be their version of a bowl game. 

HC Harsin is 2-10 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of BOISE ST  NEW MEXICO is 11-2 ATS in home games off 3 straight losses against conference rivals and the football program is 40-20 ATS L/60 vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game.Davie is 18-8 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of NEW MEXICO.

Play on New Mexico to cover 

Florida Atlantic and North Texas do battle in a contest that Im betting eclipses the Total.

N.Texas has averaged 40.4 ppg at home in offence this season. Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic despite of being inconsistent on offence has the guns to light any team in the Sun Belt . They nailed 52 points on Old dominion and scored 36 on UCF on the road and have had back to back outputs of 49 and 34 points. Their Achilles heel remains a defence that has allowed an average of 37.8 ppg on the road. Everything points to offensive fireworks here tonight. FAU scored 41 last year and 59 points the year before vs North Texas, and now N.Texas looks to do damage to in retaliation mode. 

Play OVER 

Houston gets to many accolades from the media , and are just not living up to expectations as this season progresses, something that has been a common theme with them over the last few seasons. They have a load of talent but game preparation and inconsistency remains a problem, as does a defence that has allowed an 500+ypg  and has also given up  2,049 yards in its last four games including 44 ppg. Meanwhile, Tulane has quietly  gotten better as this season, has progressed behind a hard nosed defence and an offence that has steadily improved over their L/4 trips to the gridiron. 

HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons and has failed to cover 3 of the L/4 meetings in this series. 

Tulane is 6-1 ATS L/7 as a 10 point or less underdog. 

CFB  team (HOUSTON) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 12-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover 

Ball States defence has been atrocious over the L/3 weeks allowing 42,52,45 points respectively. W.Michigan despite of being without their starting QB Jon Wassink are  still capable slicing and dicing this putrid  downtrending Ball State D, by using key cog  junior RB Levante Bellamy ranks No. 10 in college football with 907 yards rushing to set up the option. Meanwhile,  Ball State despite of also  being without starting QB  Riley Neal should also do damage vs a Broncos D, that has allowed 51, 49 points in back to back games.

BALL ST is 8-1 OVER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined score of 64.1 ppg scored. BALL ST is 6-0 OVER  in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 73.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (W MICHIGAN) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in November games are 43-18 OVER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play OVER 

Both California and USC have been inconsistent this season, but the Trojans from a head to head matchup perspective are the superior side according to my power ranking numbers and matchup well vs the Bears. I know Cal has covered 3 straight but they have also been outgunned in 3 of their L/4 overall. With both teams needing a win to get a Bowl invite, Im betting both will be primed to play but home field advantage will be the difference maker. 

The USC  Trojans  have owned this series vs California in the past and are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games at home and are 16-1 against. the Bears in their last 17 meetings overall . USC has won 14 straight  vs the Bears, and covered the this weak number in each of those tilts. 

CFB team (USC) - good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) against an average defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game are 39-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on USC to cover 

Colorado State is struggling on offence and have only averaged 23.2 ppg on the road this season while, Nevada has allowed an average of 26 ppg  at home. Colorado State has a crap run defence allowing an average of 207 ypg, and despite of Nevada liking to air it out, I expect the Wolfpack will consistently attack the perceived weakness of the Rams D on the ground which will eat up alot of clock. This along with the Rams offensive futility  Im betting results in game that stays on the low side of the number. 

CFB team against the total (NEVADA) - average rushing team(+/- 40 RY/G) against a terrible team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG after 7+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 40-12 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

California has a conservative  formula which relies on the defense to keep games close, smash away  on the ground  , and grab points any way they can. They have  scored 17 points or fewer in four of the last five games. The trojans should have no problems slowing down the Bears muted attack, and in turn the Bears are capable enough on defense to hold USC below their season average.CALIFORNIA is 7-1 UNDER  in all lined games this season and have gone under in 5 straight. 

Play UNDER 

The Tigers beat the Eagles 34-7 last year in Death Valley, and I won't be surprised at another combined score in the 40s again here in chilly Boston here tonight. 

CLEMSON is 7-0 UNDER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 season with a combined average of 41.9 ppg scored.BOSTON COLLEGE is 8-1 UNDER  versus good offensive teams - averaging  425  or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.8 ppg scored. CLEMSON is 14-2 UNDER after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored. 

CFB team against the total (CLEMSON) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games are 44-18 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

LSU was manhandled by Alabama  last week 29-0 , and are now beat up and downtrodden after that very physical affair and I'm betting they will be in a huge letdown situation here this week on the road vs feisty Arkansas gridiron group. Energy levels will be low for the Tigers  , after their  SEC title hopes and most likely its CFP aspirations were  crushed and Arkansas will be ready to take advantage of the situation. Take the points

Arkansas has covered 4 of the L/5 here as DD home dogs vs LSU and are 8-3 ATS L/11 in this series overall. LSU has failed to cover 4 straight vs .400 or less SEC opposition. 

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Florida International was smashed last week by instate rivals Florida Atlantic by a 49-14 count, and  will be in a letdown situation , and may have some problems dusting off the brutality of that beating as they go on the road vs a team that played them tough last season (14-7).

UTSA might have a negative record but  are more than capable enough of covering and have had a propensity to keep their home games close as is evident by a -8 point differential this season .UTSA  L/9  home lined games over the last 2 seasons have seen a average 1.1 line differntial UTSA 22.9 OPP 21.8 .Overall UTSA L/20 line games have seen a -3.4 ppg line differntial UTSA 20.1 OPP 23.5.

UTSA to cover 

Rice has allowed an average of 42.3 ppg on the road this season, and that season defensive average has a good chance of being breached or met again by a LA Tech team that has averaged 30.7 ppg  at home vs some decent defences like UAB that has 2 shut outs this season. I look for the Tech to score above their season average and for Rice to do just enough damage to help this combined score put up enough digits on the scoreboard to eclipse this total. 

LOUISIANA TECH is 24-10 OVER  versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play. LOUISIANA TECH is 11-2 OVER  as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points with a. combined average of 69.5 ppg scored. The last 3 meetings in this series have gone over , with the most recent two games seeing an average combined score of 7 0 and 78 points per game get scored. 

Play OVER 

Auburn (6-3, 3-3)  enters this rivalry game with  Georgia with  a huge chip on their shoulders , and are also  motivated to get revenge for last year's loss to the Bulldogs in Mercedes-Benz Stadium . Head coachGus Malzahn. prior to his recent two game win streak has taken alot of heat from alumni and boosters, but has been golden for  his betting backers  going 15-1 SU and 13-2-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 13-0 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in conference games. Georgia after their huge win vs Kentucky last week, may have problems rising up with as much intensity this week, which gives credence to me backing the road dog here. 

GEORGIA is 8-24 ATS L/32 in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

CFB home team (GEORGIA) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game against opponent after gaining 2 or less rushing yards/attempt last game 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Auburn to cover 

Florida Atlantics offence has been inconsistent this season, but they are just off teeing off on Florida International scoring 49 points. Overall on the season  the Owls have been explosive at home scoring an average of 36.7 ppg. Today against a below average Western Kentucky defence allowing 30 ppg Im expecting them to hit   or go above their average output again and for the Hilltoppers to do just enough damage to help facilitate this combined score eclipsing the Total. 

W KENTUCKY is 7-0 OVER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 83.7 ppg going on the board. 

CFB team against the total (FLA ATLANTIC) - team outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 67-33 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play OVER 

We have value here with South Alabama as injured QB Evan Orth is expected to play. I expect the Warhawks despite of leading the West, wanting revenge for a loss in this series last season, could easily still be caught looking ahead to bigger fish with Louisiana and Arkansas State up next. The Warhawks weakness has been their pass defence, and could easily get torched by Orth this week who has a 65% passer conversion rate. 

Play on South Alabama to cover 

East Carolina has averaged just 9.5 ppg on the road this season, and Im betting they wont do much damage here again vs Tulane. The Green Wave's defense has allowed 416.4 yards per game through Week 10, which ranks No. 87 in college football. Tulane loves to run, and grind away, and that will eat clock time down, which in turn will have a negative effect on total output. 

TULANE is 8-1 UNDER after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 season with a. combined average of 43 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

Kentucky was demolished last week by Georgia 34-17 and enter this road game against up trending Tennessee in a emotional letdown scenario. Believe it or not its not a good bounce back opportunity for the Wildcats as they are just 4-34 all time in this series and have lost their L/13 trips here. In Kentuckys last 4 trips to the gridiron they have averaged just 15 ppg and could easily find themselves up ended by a Volunteers side that upset Auburn as a road dog and lost by just a FG to South Carolina as road pups. Im betting that if Snell and company can  muster up enough energy to get the win here it won't come easily making Tennessee a viable home dog. 

Note: Kentucky has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 as favorites.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

The Gophers’ have played their best football at home this season as evident by their 4-1  home record  as opposed to 0-4 on the road this campaign.The Gophers biggest problems have come on defence but HC  P.J. Fleck fired his defensive coordinator and Im expecting things to turnaround in that department. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers after 3 hard fought battles against Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa may come into this game pooched and over looking their lower trending opponent. Considering the Gophers are 8-1 ATS as  double-digit home dog Im expecting that taking the points proves golden.  Note: Purdues last 12 games played on turf has seen a 0.6 ppg average differential. 

Take the points with Minnesota to cover 

Old Dominion upset VTech earlier this seasons, and despite of stumbling since than are an underrated team, and have a Wide receiver  inTravis Fulgham,  that has been added to the watch list for the Biletnikoff Award last week and is a future NFL draft pick, and is going to be a key weapon here today against North Texas as the arm of  Blake LaRussa gets a work out. Meanwhile, on D, Old Dominion defensive end Oshane Ximines ( 14.5 tackles and 8.5 sacks) will make the North Texas offensive line work hard for room. Surprise surprise, Old Dominion gets us the cover. 

 NORTH TEXAS is 0-6 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.NORTH TEXAS is 4-18 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game. 

Play on Old Dominion to cover 

UCLA ha allowed 34 ppg on average on the road this season, and could easily see that number eclipsed here. Arizona has averaged 33.6 ppg at home this season, and are good  bet according to my numbers to eclipse that average by a TD or more . I than expect UCLAs sometimes capable offense to add to those above mentioned outputs and  also do some damage in a game that will go above  the total. 

ARIZONA ST is 6-0 OVER  versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 200 or more rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 81.2 ppg going on the board.ARIZONA ST is 10-2 OVER vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 72.5 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

I cannot put my finger on it , but their something wrong with the Ohio State buckeyes fluidity. they just don't look like a championship calibre team despite of their 8-1 record. The most glaring issue is the Buckeyes D, but this week, Im betting that won't be a big problem from a methodical Spartans offence. Last week those issues were obvious, against Nebraska, but the Buckeyes secondary was banged up with three guys out, all are expected back this week. Meanwhile, Michigan State is very talented on the defensive side of the ball, and Im betting will make life difficult for Ohio State vaunted attack.MICHIGAN ST is 10-2 UNDER  vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons. When these teams played here back in 2016 35 total combined points were scored and more than 50 here is not a likely scenario. 

Play UNDER

West Virginia  is off a huge emotional win vs the Texas Longhorns last week and  will be pooched and most probably hungover in more ways than one vs struggling  TCU. I know  the Froggies  Coach Gary Patterson’s has seen his talented up inconsistent team shoot themselves in the foot on numerous occasions this season, but this is a prime opportunity to get just a little bit of redemption so I expect the Horned Frogs to be sky high for this game, and will play loose as they have nothing to lose by not doing so here on the road .  TCU under Gary Patterson is 12-2 ATS as a double-digit dog, including 6-0 ATS from Game Ten out. West Virginia is also 1-5 ATS L/6 after playing Texas. 

W VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS  after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.TCU is 13-4 ATS  in road games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games.

CFB team (TCU) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 36-10 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on TCU to cover 

The Fresno State Bulldogs  are an explosive team that look to be on a mission as they have won 18 of their L/23 games and are a bankroll expanding  19-3 ATS in all games L/21 lines games , including 13-1 ATS in conference games and a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road . Meanwhile, despite of all the accolades Boise State has gotten from the media, they are no longer a blue carpet  dominant team, and have only covered 1 of their 7 vs visiting Mountain West teams with a .700 or better record. The Broncos also are not playing all that well, and look to be at a disadvantage cs aside that is out gaining their opposition by an average of 122 ypg since early September.Fresno State is 14-0 ATS in its last fourteen games versus Mountain West Conference opposition with a .500 record or better and get the nod again this Friday night behind a D, that has allowed a total of 36 points in conference games this season.

Play on Fresno State to cover 

This Total just keeps steaming upward, as sharp money piles on the over.Wake Forest pulled an upset of a nationally ranked N.C. State team last year and now with revenge on board , I expect a motivated effort from the Wolfpack with the no mercy rule waived , which means NC State will keep the pedal to the metal from start to finish behind an offence that has averaged 35 ppg at home this season. The average output should be upped by at least 10 points according to my projections vs a Wake Forest D, that is atrocious having allowed 37.2 ppg this season. The Daemon Deacons do however, own a offence that is the polar opposite of their D, and has proven their efficiency moving the ball as they average 32.3 ppg of offence. Look for NC State to pile up the points and for Wake First to do their best Buster Douglas impersonation and come back with some lucky haymakers of their own in a game Im betting eclipses the Total. Note:   WAKE FOREST is 6-0 OVER L/6 vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 86.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

CFB Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (WAKE FOREST) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 41-12 OVER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play OVER 

  Northern Illinois just clinched a bowl berth with last week’s 36-26 victory vs Akron  and look ripe to be in a letdown situation this week vs an explosive Toledo team that has averaged 41 ppg this season. The sled dogs own a tremendous defence, but the Rockets can score against the best of teams, which is going to be a problem for the home team tonight as they have only been able to muster 19.2 ppg on the season, behind an offense that can only be described as methodical and inconsistent. Toledo has won the 2 most recent meetings in this series, and are my choice to cover here tonight. The visitor in this series has only failed to cover one of the L/7 confrontations. Toledo is also 10-2 ATS L/12 weekday games.

(Weather conditions during the day 40F, and 28 at night, some wind gusts but nothing series, so no advantage here for N.Illinois as they hoped for inclement weather that would slow down the Toledo attack)

TOLEDO is 22-7 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more which happened last time out in a 45-13 win vs Ball State. 

CFB Road underdogs (TOLEDO) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) are a long term good bet as they are 124-66 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play on Toledo to cover 

Miami O and Ohio ,both have explosive offences. Ohio has averaged 40+ ppg on the season and Miami O has not scored less than 30 points in any of their L/6 games  averaging 36.8 ppg. With that said, Im betting on a back forth affair here, that eclipses the beatable total. 

Ohio U won a 45-28 slugfest last season, and a repeat type combined score is a high probability outcome  again. 

MIAMI OHIO is 6-0 OVER  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 71.2 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

BYU plays a methodical conservative brand of football, which was evident in a 7-6 loss to N.Illinois last week, a MAC team that plays a similar type of football. Now this week on the Blue Carpet of Boise State I expect the rip van winkle gridiron crew to be the Mormons approach to this game as they look to slow this tilt down to a snails pace which Im betting will help them stay competitive vs the Broncos.  Note: BYU is 20-2-2 ATS L/24 games as road dogs. While Boise State is 0-6 ATS L/6 at home as favorite of 10 to 14.5 points. BYU has covered 3 of the L/4 meetings here and get the nod again in this spot play. 

Play on BYU to cover 

Neither of these teams is living up to their preseason Billings, but what stands out when Washington hosts Stanford today is  Cards HC David Shaws 13-4 ATS record as a dog, including 5-0 ATS when's is getting 9 or more points. Stanford also owns a 15-1 ATS record as visitors after allowing 40-plus points, which happened last time out. Last season Stanford took out the Huskies at home for their 10 win in the L/14 in this series, and right now the way the Huskies are playing revenge will not be enough to get them the payback they want. 

Stanford is 12-0 SU/ 11-0-1 ATS L/5 seasons coming off a loss as a favorite. ( Last week Stanford lost 41-28 heartbreaker to a very good Washington State team)

STANFORD is 8-1 ATS  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9  or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons.STANFORD is 19-4 ATS  in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992.

WASHINGTON is 2-11 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in weeks 10 through 13 are 9-33 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Stanford Cardinal to cover