The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are off back to back destructions vs Kansas Jayhawks and the Ohio State Buckeyes and have given up a combined 107 points in their last two games. The Buffalo Bulls of the MAC might not inspire many bettors, but this team is explosive offensively and dangerous and more than capable of stopping Rutgers cold, and also putting a DD beating on them, even here on the road. The Bulls have averaged 39.7 ppg this season, and can match that output today vs a very bad Rutgers D that is allowing 38 points and 430.7 yards per game.

 The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. 

RUTGERS is 0-6 ATS  off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more over the last 3 seasons and  is 2-14 ATS L/16 in home games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game . 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (RUTGERS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Buffalo to cover 

 Cincinnati D, is ranked 2nd in the nation right now and their ground game is averaging 5 yards per carry.  I expect the Bearcats will pound away here and eat up clock time while their own D keeps Solichs offense off the field consistently which will mess with the Bobcats fluidity which in turn will see them frustrated.  Cincinnati continues to roll, on their way to their 4th straight win and cover.

Cincinnati is 21-2 L/23 vs MAC opponents SU. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 24-2 with the average margin of victory combing by 20.6 ppg.

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

This is a trap game for Notre Dame, and Im confident they don't deserve their high ranking,

Some of the interesting factors that have me backing Wake here this week are  listed  below...

Wake Forest (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) has covered the spread in its last 11 straight games against ranked opponents. Notre Dame (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS),  owns a tight 6.8 average margin of victory in its last 10 road ACC games dating back over the L/10 seasons.Wake Forest is 12-1 ATS with revenge L/2 seasons,( lost last Years meeting 48-37 on the road but covered) and go against what looks to me to be an over rated and still jelling Irish team that despite of being undefeated are just 1-2 ATS while losing the stats wars in 2 of 3  games this season .It must also be noted that the lucky catholic boys have not registered more than 400 yards in any of their three victories which all came  at home. Here on the road trouble could be brewing vs a Wake Forest side that can be explosive and competitive as was evident vs Boston College last time out. 

From a matchup persepctive  ( difference maker)  Wake Forest's rushing attack Im betting  will gouge  Notre Dame's wobbly defensive front. Wake Forest has gained 264 yards per game on the ground, while Notre Dame has allowed 107 rushing yards per game. 

***Notre Dame is the highest-ranked non-conference opponent to visit Wake Forest since the Demon Deacons pulled a September 1996 shocker by toppling No. 13 Northwestern. There was also a 1979 upset of No. 13 Auburn. Last season Wake Forestupset No.25 ranked NC State. 

NOTRE DAME is 1-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WAKE FOREST) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 68-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Washington State plays a one way aerial attack offensive game and nothing will change today. Washington State is ranked 3rd in the country with 421 yards passing per game. Meanwhile, USC will be prepared to air out as well , as it seems that they can't get they're running game going. Since putting 41 points on the board in game 1 of the season USC has struggled to score , and need desperately to get their offence rolling and will be primed to put points on the board here. Washington State will answer back. Im  recommending an over bet. 

WASHINGTON ST is 20-6 OVER as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992 with a combined average score of 59.3 ppg scored. 

CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (WASHINGTON ST) - with a  defense - allowing 315 or less total yards/game, after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are  43-16 OVER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the OVER 

Tulsa under HC Philip Montgomery has proven himself over rated, and he can't motivate his team to be consistent as was the case last week when they were upset at home by Arkansas State. The offence is not very efficient anymore and the defence, has proven insufficient more often then not. Against a hard working side like Temple that is off a big win vs Maryland last week, their in trouble. The Owls prevailed 43-22 in Tulsa to close the 2017 regular season and matchup well vs the visitors.

TEMPLE is 12-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.

TEMPLE is 14-3 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

TEMPLE is 8-0 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons.

TEMPLE is 15-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Temple to cover 

Utah enters this game against Washington with revenge for a 33-30 loss last season, which flashes a go sign here on this bet , because of their proficiency in this role as is evident by a 5-1 ATS L/6 with conference revenge. The Utes won last time out but failed to cover, versus a though Northern Illinois side by a 17-6 count as 13 point road chalk. However it must also be noted that Utah HC Whittingham has cashed 13 of their L/14 off a ATS loss. Overall the Utes have recently also been a viable investment option when getting 5 or more points as a home underdog cashing 6 of their L/7 opportunities. Utahs Defence remains very solid, and here at home in a black out game where they have won 8. of their L/10 they look like live dogs that must be respected.

UTAH is 15-3 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - off a home win by 17 points or more, good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games are 17-45 ATS  L/26 seasons for a go against  73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Utes to cover 

Alot of sharp bettors got down on what appeared to be a value line with a home team that won 11 games last season (TCU). But on futher review and a comparison of both teams strengths and weaknesses , it becomes failry obvious that the linemakers are actually short on this line, and it should be closer to -16 with visiting Ohio State according to my power rankings. Historically speaking Ohio State has been a solid bet on the road coveing 10 straight as away chalk or -17 or less and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 in their first road game of the season. The importance of this game is not essential to TCU Big 12 camapign this season, and with Texas on board next week, I'm betting the coaching staff have not been able to dedidcate as musch time as is needed to take on this type of explosive opponent. Note: TCU is 0-6 ATS L/6 before facing the Texas Longhorns and have only covered 1 of their L/5 head to heads with Big10 opposiiton. I know Urban Meyer is not on the sidelines but he still has his fingerprints all over this team, and is still pulling the strings. Bet on a conclusive Ohio State victory and cover.

Play on Ohio State to cover 

 Eastern Washington ranked 6th in FCS, recorded five sacks against Northern Arizona last week and are the type of defence that can cause problems for Washington State QB who  has weak completion numbers (66,7%) and a below average offensive stats for a guy playing in Mike Leach's air raid system. Washington State offensive line has looked solid , and QB Gardner Minshew has not been sacked once, but still hurries his throws and has been intercepted 3 times already. Today against this type of aggressive D, their could easily be problems. Eastern Washington will primed to compete against instate rivals Cougars today, and Im betting they will get us a cover behind a balanced team with a solid QB in Gage Gubrud who owns has 9 TDs no interceptions so far this season.

Play on Eastern Washington 

Ole Miss has looked horrendous on defence so far this season, and its obvious the talent level from the offensive side of the ball is far superior to that on the defensive side. Truth is Ole Miss has almost always won recruiting battles for WRs and top tier QBS, but have failed to land defensive 4 and 5 star recruits. But today I expect the D, to step up while the offence continues to do what they do best and that is  score. Yes, even against their behemoth opponent Alabama. 

Ta'amu the Rebels QB is working with one of the top receiving corps in the nation. It is led by A.J Brown, who tops the SEC in receptions per game (7.5) and is second in receiving yards per game (125.5), eighth nationally. This offence can hang points on the best teams in the nation, and thats what I'm betting  on here tonight, against a against an Alabama secondary with all new starters. 

 When Alabama travelled here  two years ago, it had to come  from behind  a 21-point deficit in the second quarter to pull off a wild a43-37 victory. In 2014-15, the Rebels pulled off back-to-back upsets of the Crimson Tide.

Ole Miss 9-3 ATS as a underdog of more than 17 points, and 8-3 ATS as a underdog with conference revenge.  

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (OLE MISS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 38-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover 

When first looking at these teams its obvious a causal observer would expect a shoot out here today considering recent stats. But from a mathematical perspective which includes power ranking strengths and weaknesses it very much looks like the Total is getting a little bloated via mostly one way over action from the public. So in my usual contrarian fashion, Ill attack the number to the under.  

Houston is balanced on both sides of the ball, but defence is key their successes and failures. The Cougars have  Outland Trophy-winning DT and future NFL draft pick Ed Oliver playing like his hairs on fire ,and have the best defensive line in the conference. . Houston also owns a   talented secondary that are jelling and Im betting they will give Texas Tech passing game  that has an unsettled quarterback situation some grief here today. Last year these teams took part in a closely contests 27-24 tilt, and I'm betting it will be a much lower scoring affair than the lines makers and public are expecting today.

 [QB] 09/09/2018 - McLane Carter is "?" Saturday vs Houston ( Ankle ) if he plays he will not be 100%. Look for Texas Tech  to pound the ball on the ground more often which will also slow the game down and eat up a lot of clock time.

Houston has gone under 10 straight. times by an average of 9.1 ppg coming off a home where they allowed at least 400 total yards. These teams have stayed under in 3 straight meetings. 

Play UNDER 

Both these teams are off convincing wins last time out, and both are now 2-0. Both have explosive offences and top tier QBs leading the way. The difference maker will be home field advantage . With that said, Oklahoma State gets the nod in what the lines makers estimate  will be a closely contested affair. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 90-62 ATS as a favorite since 1992.

BOISE ST is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last few seasons.HC Harsin is 0-7 ATS  after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game as the coach, of Boise State. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 30-12 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game.

CFB home team (OKLAHOMA ST) - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 30-8 ATS L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Oklahoma State 

LSU put some points up against Miami Florida in their first game of the season and got the win, but here today on the road with inexperienced group and their scoring output vs Auburn 's staunch D, will be muted. Meanwhile, LSU as has almost always been the case continues to recruit strong defensive players, and are loaded again this season,  as was evident when they shutout South Eastern Louisiana 31-0, which will be their strength here today vs Auburn side that has only once put 24 points on the board since 2000 in this series averaging just 18.2 ppg overall. Im betting this game will be a war in the trenches that stays on the low side side of the number. 

LSU is 9-1 UNDERoff a home win over the last 3 seasons and 7-0 UNDER after allowing less than 17 points .

CFB  Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (AUBURN) - after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 30-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

CFB Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (LSU) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 32-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

SMU has allowed 46 and 42 points in their first two games being an atrocious defence. Michigan is also capable of putting this many points on the board, if not more , behind Quarterback Shea Patterson who threw three touchdown passes in his home debut and has completed 32 of 47 passes to start the season. Sonny Dykes SMU are offensively orientated and will make Michigan staunch defence work hard to stop them, but should still have enough success especially against the 2nd stringers to help this tilt combine to see a score that eclipses the number.SMU  has gone over in 11 straight games  as a dog coming off a home game where they allowed at least 35 points eclipsing the total by ana average of more than 2 TDs,

Play OVER 

UAB is off a loss to under rated Coastal Carolina last week by a 47-24 count . But they have proven to be a good bounce back side and are 19-4 ATS as home pups when coming off a loss. Tulane has looked good this season on offence behind top QB Johnathon Banks, but their defence is atrocious having allowed 953 yards in their first two games and are ranked 111th in the nation on defence and are less than viable road favs in their first game away from home this season.

TULANE is 8-23 ATS L/30 in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UAB) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 70-30 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on UAB to cover 

Hawaii has impressed me by starting their season at 3-0, behind an explosive and balanced offence. While Im not totally sold on them ,because of their  far inconsistent defence I do like them to cover vs Army this week despite of being on the road. I know Armys option offence is hard to stop, but the Warriors can use the blue print that was successful in Game 1 as they had success outpointing another option based offence owned by Colorado State . This Warriors team can burn you and so many ways one Im betting it will that attack that allows them help us cash a ticket this Saturday. 

Monken is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing a game at home as the coach of Army. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HAWAII) - after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 37-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HAWAII) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team vs. the money line (HAWAII) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against a team with a terrible defense ( 6.2 YPP or more ), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 40-4 SU L/27 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors on the blind which give credence to us taking the points here this week. 

Play on Hawaii to cover 

We have a significant power ranking increase registered for Kansas after going into Central Michigan and hammering them by a 32-7 count. Call me crazy but this team might actually be competitive going forward after a long embarrassing drought. I'm betting Kansas can make Rutgers one-dimensional by stopping the run,  as QB Sitkowski is currently questionable with an arm injury  I know some might call me continue to call me a lunatic for laying points with Kansas but  unbelievably to some they are  capable of garnering a win vs a Rutgers side that could be emotionally let down after being humiliated 52-3 last week by Ohio State.

CFB road team vs. the money line (RUTGERS) - average defensive team (330 to 390 YPG) against a good defensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 3.25 or less yards/play in their previous game are just 2-36 SU in their next game L/27 seasons for a go against 95% conversion rate for bettors. The average margin of victory was 17.6 ppg)

Play on Kansas to cover 

  Toledo, 20-7 SU in two seasons under HC Jason Candle and must be respected as  a viable football program especially when playing here in the Glass Bowl. Meanwhile, Miami their opponents despite of pasting Savannah State last time out 77-0 showed some weakness in game 1 of their schedule vs LSU losing in DD fashion. Not all is perfect with Mark Richts football program and despite of good recruiting classes this steam just can't seem to get over the hump especially on the road. It must be noted Toledo is 5-1 ATS L/6 at home when they own a winning record which they have including last weeks 66-3 win vs VMI. Note: TOLEDO is 27-8 ATS after a win by 28 or more points since 1992.TOLEDO is 7-0 ATS after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.TOLEDO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

 Toledo is 8-0 ATS  L/8 covering my more than 8.5 ppg at home coming off a game where they allowed less than 200 passing yards  

Home teams coming off a win by more than 35 points are 748-600-32 ATS for a quality long term winning   bet. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games are 31-7 ATS L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Toledo to cover 

Boston College has come a long way over the last few seasons. However, I was  still surprised to see them build into a  market  road favorite against a under valued Wake Forest team that has the ability to blast away offensively with the best of teams, including Boston College even without the suspended QB Kendal Hinton in the lineup. I expect the Demon Deacons to stretch the field  vs BC via the run game , and than use that option behind a good looking freshman QB Sam Hartman to open up down field against a  suspect secondary that is the weakest part of the defence as was the case vs Umass in week 1.  Look for star WR Greg Dorch to so some damage here today and for Wake Forest to keep this game close enough to possibly pull off the upset.

WAKE FOREST is 11-2 ATS  as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. BOSTON COLLEGE is 7-18 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins since 1992. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WAKE FOREST) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WAKE FOREST) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better are 37-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous games are 22-54 ATS L/5 seasons for a  go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Rice played a solid game vs a  balanced Houston team on the road last week, and were competitive for almost 3 quarters before falling apart late for a 45-27 loss covering as 25 point dogs. The game was a lot closer than the final score might indicate , as Rice showed some explosive offensive schemes in that back and forth battle. Meanwhile, their opposition this week Hawaii has played some impressive offensive football in their first two weeks of the season vs Navy last week at home and Colorado State in their road opener putting up, 59 and 43 points in victories. The Warriors Achilles heel as has been the case in  recent past campaigns remains their defence, as they allowed an average of 37.5 ppg in those two above mentioned tilts. Tonight in what could be an emotional letdown spot for the Warriors  against a Rice squad that can put points up on the board in a hurry, Im betting their in trouble and a win if they can get it, will not  come without some blood , sweat and tears.

Hawaii is 0-6 ATS L/6 after accumulating 450 or more yards of offence in two straight games. 

Rice is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their L/7 visits to Paradise Island. 

CFB  road team vs. the money line (RICE) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a horrible defensive team allowing 34 ppg or more, after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games 36-4 SU L/27 seasons.

Play on Rice to cover 

The Sun Devils looked great last week in a win vs Texas San Antonio. Herm Edwards the new HC of the Devils has not lost his touch since an extended departure from the College football scene. It must be noted that Arizona State have covered 4 straight  as home undedogs of 7 or more points, and have won 10 straight at home all-time versus the Big Ten.  Meanwhile, we know that the  Spartans under HC DAtonio are slow starters and just got by Utah state last week and are just 0-6 ATS their last six versus the Pac-12 and far from solid road favs here in this spot. 

ARIZONA ST is 10-2 ATS in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - off a home win, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 8-30 ATS L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA ST) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference game are 30-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona State to cover 

Penn State was involved in a hard fought game vs Appalachian State last time out and needed a late score to cover. That game could still be effecting them and a emotional letdown scenario is not out of the question vs a another gritty program. Last season in Happy Valley Pittsburgh actually out gained the Lions despite of losing on the scoreboard and are 5-0-1 ATSL/6 in this series. You can bet HC Narduzzi and company behind what should be a solid run game to be primed on pulling of the upset vs their instate rivals and be sky high here emotionally today. It must be noted that Penn State has covered just once in their L/10 as -14 or less road chalk. The Panthers are also 11-0-1 ATS L/12 as home dogs of 8 or more points and get my support again as home pups. 

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season are 10-33 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - off a home win, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 8-30 ATS L/510seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

Needless to say this is a huge game for Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M. Meanwhile, Clemson   will not be a hyped up in this non conference affair. I believe in Fisher as a DD home dog, and feel his team has what it takes to cover vs this National championship contender.

HC of Texas A&M is 45-8 SU all-time in home games in his career including 22-1 SU in games in which his teams are undefeated meanwhile, Clemson is 0-14-1 ATS failing to cover by more than 10 ppg since the 2000 campaign as a road favorite coming off a home game where they failed to cover by at least six points which was the case on a -51 line vs Furman last week.

Play on the Texas A&M Aggies 

The LA Monroe Warhawks have 17 returning starters in the fold, and must not be underestimated here this week vs their hosts Southern Miss  side with just 9 returning starters. Both own wins vs lower tier teams in their season debuts, and  both look capable enough to put points on the board in what should be a  hard fought back and forth affair that could easily be decided by a late scoring drive. 

LA MONROE is 20-8 ATS  as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.LA MONROE is 20-6 ATS L/26 in road games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. SOUTHERN MISS is 3-14 ATS in home games after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game.

CFB team (LA MONROE) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, returning 8+ off. starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less def. starters - weeks 1-2 are 26-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on LA Monroe to cover 

We all know how good a program and team Georgia football will field here today, but this is a long time rivalry that is emotional, and I expect a full house here today to back the Gamecocks. Like last season, we can expect a physical game , that I'm betting actually favours South Carolina to cover. Georgia won last years battle 24-10 on their own home turf, but now with the border war changing venues we will take the points. Note: Georgia has failed to cover 5 straight in road openers if they are DD chalk kickoff. South Carolina is 8-3 ATS in this series, and 5-1-1 ATS with conference revenge.

Play on South Carolina to cover 

Arkansas State is a program that has been highly competitive recently  and off a win in game 1 of their season and Im betting they can stay within the number here this week, vs a No.1 ranked Alabama team that will be focused on staying healthy before their SEC opener next week vs Ole Miss. Nick Saban is 0-5 ATS in his career with Alabama as a non-conference favorite of more than 28 points before his SEC opener when facing an opponent coming off a victory and  is also just 1-11 ATS as non conference home chalk of 28 points or more and . It must also be pointed out that the Arkansas State Red Wolves  have lost just 1 game of their last 159 games by more than 37 points.

 CFB Underdog  of 31.5 or more points (ARKANSAS ST) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 32-7 ATS L/25 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Arkansas State to cover 

In their first game of the season Boston College surprisingly opening up their schemes and put on a ferocious aerial assault instead of concentrating on their vaunted ground attack. The  coaching staff did however, look concerned about the Defensive lapses vs UMass, and now want to slow the game down and control pace which hopefully gets their stoppers focused again. But I expect their ground game to be the key for them this week against Holy Cross as the coaching staff will want QB Anthony Brown who suffered a knee injury last season to take less punishment this week before the conference schedule begins as they also know that 3 of their next 4 games  will be taking place on the road. These are two old regional rivals so I won't be surprised if this is a physical game that stays on the low side of the number. Note Holy Cross shut out Colgate in the 2nd half of last weeks  24-17 loss to Colgate. 

Boston College have under 15 straight times by an average 11.7 ppg,  2008 com-ing off a game as a home favorite where they forced at least three turnovers which happened in your opener . the average combined score of these games clicking at 34.7 ppg with non of the games eclipsing this 51 point plateau. 

Play UNDER 

This one is a revenge situation that sets up from last season where Duke mercilessly smashed Northwestern, 41- 17, as a 2-point home underdog. Revenge is one very powerful motivational factor as stated in many data bases including the bible. Quote" “Vengeance is mine; I will repay. End Quote: That will be the Northwestern moto this week. 
Look for the Cats at home in Ryan Field today to make it 10-2 SU in their L/12 home openers.

NORTHWESTERN is 10-2 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

CFB home team vs. the money line (NORTHWESTERN) - in non-conference games, off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival are 46-9 L/10 seasons for a 84% SU conversion rate. ( NW beat Purdue last week 31-27.)

Play on Northwestern to cover

Play on the Miami Canes to cover ,

Hawaii might of taken advantage of rebuilding Colorado State program for a win on the road last week 43-34, but now on tired legs after back and forth trips from Paradise Island to the mainland and than back to Paradise Island  again, the Warriors will now have to contend with a solid Navy football program that will not be over looking them because of the irrationally exuberant headlines Hawaiis football program has been featured in all week. The Midshipan will be especially primed to capture a conclusive victory here after losing 6 of their L/7 games last season.Mind you two of those losses were to UCF and Notre Dame where they did not look out of place.The Midshipman did show their metal with a 49-7 win vs Virginia in their Bowl game, and are still steaming and ready to roll here's  vs  this Saturday night in the final game of the day. Im betting this will  one of  Niumatalolo’s most explosive teams yet and that the Warriors despite of vast coaching and tempo changes on offence are not ready to compete  with this kind of opponent just yet. 

HAWAII is 0-7 ATS  after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.HAWAII is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, with an experienced QB returning as starter are 45-15 ATS L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Navy to cover 

The Ponies  make their debut under new head coach Sonny Dykes this Saturday at North Texas. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but Im betting SMU has made more efficient upgrades especially on D in the off season behind former Northern Illinois defensive coordinator Kevin Kane and the offence under take no prisoners style of play implemented by   Dykes leadership will see the Mustangs continue to roll. I feel strongly that SMU has a outright chance at victory, partly because I feel North Texas will have problems plugging the run via 3-3-5 defensive scheme and ha a tendency of giving up huge plays.

NORTH TEXAS is 8-20 ATS L/28 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 .

The Mustangs have beaten UNT three consecutive times overall and lead the all-time series 31-5-1.

Play on SMU to cover 

  Chip Kelly  the former Oregon HC  Is now back in the  Pac-12 . His OU team was dominating, but I'm betting his task here at UCLA will be a daunting  one this season, especially on defense where this Bruins football program looked atrocious last season especially vs the run, ranking last among power 5 teams .   Kelley from a wagering perspective  was not a particularly good bet outside of his conference in his tenure with the Ducks, going just  6-7 ATS, including 1-3 ATS in season opening battles . On the flipside Bearcats HC Luke Fickell has put together a truly talented and under rated  group here behind some very good recruiting classes and I'm betting this Cincinnati Bearcats teams is  being seriously underestimated , while Chip and his ultra talented but still  less than cohesive group are over rated at this point in the season.

UCLA is 1-8 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (UCLA) - poor rushing defense from last season - allowed 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, with 5 offensive starters returning are just 9-22 SU L/5 seasons, with the average point differential clicking in at 5.9 ppg. 

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

  Two seasons ago,  Troy closed as 35-point underdogs at Clemson and covered with extraordinary ease in a hard fought  30-24 loss. Last year, they fearlessly went into Death Valley and  upset LSU, 24- 21, as 20.5-point pups Now with revenge on board for a a season opening 24-13 home loss to the Broncos in 2017 I expect they will be primed to be competitive again . I know BSU was  ranked No. 22 in the preseason AP poll and returning senior QB Brett Rypien, is a stud QB.   But it must be noted that Troy  are no pushovers , and are  9-0 ATS record  as underdog of  9 or more points at Veterans Memorial Stadium and this will be their first home dog situation since the 20015 season..  It would also be important to point out that Bryan Harsin’s Broncos   have covered only 1 of their L/5  ATS in season openers the last five years, and 4-10 ATS as double-digit chalk versus an opponent that won 10 or more games the previous season. Troy is a team that won 25 of their 31 overall and must be respected here as home dogs. Yes even a against this powerful Boise group. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TROY) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference game are 30-6 ATS L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TROY) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 58% or better, in non-conference games are 42-15 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Troy to cover 

The Hawkeyes should not be favoured by this much. The opening line was bad, and has been bet down, and I'm betting taking 10 points with Northern Illinois also offers value.    Iowa has lost a lot form last years team. and have been far from good bets in the past in non conference openers going just  3-11 ATS at  home when they are less  16 point chalk .Meanwhile, NIU is 30-10 SU and 27-11-2 ATS in its last forty road games and are  14-4 ATS as double-digit non-conference road dogs  the last 18 seasons. including  11- 1 ATS in their L/12 Big 12 battles  . HC Ferentiz  and company also  own a ugly 1-5 ATS record in its last six games against MAC opponents and are 0-3 ATS in season openers. The last time these teams opened against each other in  2012-13  the two tilts were decided by a total of  just 4 points and Im betting another very close game here behind a very improved Northern Illinois defence. 

N ILLINOIS is 13-4 ATS L/17 as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.

CFB road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (N ILLINOIS) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season are 42-13 ATS L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Northern Illinois to cover 

This is a pure and simple situation that will see Texas focused on getting some payback for last seasons humiliating loss at home to this same Maryland program. Its not usually my thing to lay almost two touchdowns on the road between power 5 teams, but this one stands out as being exceptional situation and worth laying the lumber. Texas will primed on taking a merciless stance here today on their way to a one sided beatdown of mammoth proportions. Note: Suspended HC DJ Durkins has had a lot of issues that have effected this Terps group mentality, and I expect we see that here today. I don't think interim HC and OC Matt Canada will have this team ready to compete at the level it needs to not to be embarrassed today.

 Maryland football program  failed to cover 34 of  their L/36 straight up non-conference home or neutral field losses, including  23 straight ATS losses under these perimeters. 

Texas head coach Herman is 9-3 SUATS  when seeking revenge, including  10-1 ATS in non-conference games, and a perfect  5-0 ATS as a visitor. 

Play on Texas to cover 

After a few of ugly seasons, since going FBS football, Texas State has finally tapped into a deep Texas talent pool and had a couple of very good recruiting classes  with 17 3star recruits in the lineup , which has them flying in under the radar in this opener vs Rutgers side that averaged just 18 PPG (120th), 115.58 PYPG (124th) and 147.08 RYPG (86th) on offence .With an inexperienced TD at the helm of offence in QB Sitkowski I'm betting things will  not get much better for the Scarlet Knights even with their new OC McNutty making calls. 

Note:Less than two weeks before the start of the year, the Scarlet Knights saw eight players - all from the defensive side of the ball - charged for their alleged involvement in a credit-card fraud scheme. These kids set a tone in the lockeroom that won't be easy erased when the on field group takes to the field today.

Rutgers is 3-8 ATS L/11 as a DD fav, and in no way to they inspire me, especially vs a Texas State Defence that has shown vast improvement over the last few seasons.

Play on Texas State to cover 

South Carolina goes against instate opponent Coastal Carolina here today in what must be looked at as a tuneup game for the Gamecocks and super bowl type game for Coastal Carolina. 

The talent discrepancies are large, but the motivational factors are also big, and Im betting HC Joe Moglia and company can compete here and cover the number vs a Gamecocks side that has some new faces on D, especially in the secondary. Carolina also have a tendency to play conservatively on offense and will see OC Mclendon coach only the 2nd game of his career. Also with a huge tilt vs Georgia on board for next week, Im betting South Carolina will not showcase their full playbook, and leave little for the Bulldogs coaches to dissect. 

I know this is Coastal Carolinas only 2nd season in FCS, butJo Mogila is 51-15 SU in five years on the sideline and is an astute student of the game, and spent last season analyzing what this team needed to compete. I respect this HC a lot and feel he can keep his team close enough to cover. 

The Gamecocks are just 3-9 ATS L/12 at home as DD chalk. 

CFB road team (COASTAL CAROLINA) - poor defense from last season - allowed 400 or more total yards/game, with 5 defensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 59-25 ATS L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover

San Diego State Rbs Rashaad Penny(2248 ry) and Juwan Washington (759 ry) will be primed to run wild this week, vs a Stanford D, that no longer looks as formidable as it once did. Last season Stanford performed well below expectations defensively and permitted a whopping 35 ppg in their final two games of the season, and now with Justin Reid and DT Harrison Phillips gone to the NFL via the draft, things don't likely look to get much better. San Diego State plays the type of ball that can keep them in this tilt till the end , and get us the cover.

STANFORDs last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons have seen a average margin of victory coming by 13.3 ppg, which gives us value with the underdog based on line divergence.

CFB team (STANFORD) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record are just 7-30 ATS L/26 seasons for a  go against 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on SD State to cover 

This one goes like this , Tulane owns a  shaky run D , and it  did not do well vs good run teams last season. Things don't look to get much better this season, and Wake Forest will take advantage of this and pound the ball on the ground mercilessly  right out of the gate, behind 5 retuning starters and than as tilt progresses use the option to do further damage through the air.  Yes even with Sam Hartman taking snaps, thanks to his ability to hit WR Greg Dorch who can also explode when playing on special teams, especially vs a revamped Tulane secondary. Willie Fritz and company have their hands full with a under rated and explosive Wake Forest football program today . With that said lay the points with the Demon Deacons on the road. 

TULANE is 2-11 ATS  against ACC opponents since 1992. ACC 40.8 Tulane 13.1

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

A lot of times certain matchups seem obvious based on expectations . However, the obvious is not always as straight forward as many might think. Central Florida blew through opposing football programs last season, via an explosive offensive attack , and should once again field a up tempo style assault behind new head coach and former Missouri HC Heupel who is all about tempo. This right out of the gate has everyone giddy about the Knights offensive abilities and their chances for a big night against a young rebuilding UConn football program that stunk onnD last season. While UCF despite of some key roster losses are still very talented ,putting up more than 48 points will be difficult, as I expect the Huskies will play a very conservative game plan, that will try to grind clock time down quickly in an attempt to stay competitive. With that said, it must be noted that  Uconns HC Eudsall  teams play their best ball, when the running game is in a groove as he consistently preaches   clock and tempo control something he employs to get an edge on the talent gap he has experienced in the past as was evident when he was a  coach at Maryland. Last season, The Huskies failed  to score more than 24 points in any of the last six games last season a continuation is expected here.

 UCF won a 49-23 decision at home  vs UConn last season with a  72 combined points scored and I'm bettong both were more cohesive last season then they will this season, thus a combined score in the mid to higher 60s would me a much closer correlated event than more than 72+ point out put.

These two opposing game plans.... one fast and one slow, have my scoring projections consistently staying on the low side of this total. I have the Knights putting up between 41 and 47 points, while Connecticut should be able to put up no more than 20-24  points which co ordinated closely to the point spread differentials. 

Play on on the UNDER 

Offences usually start slow, and defences usually are more stable early on in the season, but Im betting the offences take centre stage here in this NCAAF opener. 

Colorado's offense was humming last season, pilling up a  yards by the ton,  averaging a school-record 492.5 yards per game. I know they have to replace some key ingredients, at  quarterback,  running back their top receiver and top tight end from a year ago and three new starters on the offensive line, but the replacements despite of being inexperienced to an extent are just as talented according to my scouting reports and in some cases maybe better. Meanwhile Colorado States D, remains a issue, and now need to replace five starters from a unit that permitted 431.6 yards and 27.8 points per game a year ago. These guys are not as experienced or talented in my opinion as the ones that left. Add to that I'm also not impressed by the Rams by the arrival of   former Tennessee defensive coordinator John Jancek's Colorado Springs . He has hands full, and a recruiting class on D, far less talented then he had in Tennessee. 

On the flipside,Hawaii will incorporate the run-and-shoot in an attempt  to  get the Warriors back to what makes them entertaining . Look for sophomore  QB Cole McDonald and freshman Chevan Cordeiro who have been named as co-starters at quarterback,  to surprise some folks here this week and do a lot more damage than the pundits and lines makers expect. Meanwhile, Hawaii's D, that struggled last season, now has to replace their best linemen and defensive backs and could easily get run over here today, in what Im betting will be a high scoring affair that eclipses the number.

My projections estimate both teams will score at 28 points or more.HAWAII is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 79.8 ppg going on the board.COLORADO ST is 8-0 OVER   when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 88.6 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

After watching Georgia shoot it out  with Oklahoma and win in OT it became obvious to me that this team, is really special, and  can both play top tier defense and show case an explosive offense, which makes them extremely dangerous on both sides of the ball , and a bad matchup for Alabama .  Meanwhile, Alabama despite of their over powering performance vs Clemson, still  played a game in their comfort zone behind their trade mark defense , and methodical offense. It was how Saban and company have won games for a long time now.  I also  know the public has now piled all back onto the Tides bandwagon, but I'm betting   Nick Saban's domination of college football could easily come  to end today and could begin a down trend for Alabama football. Yes, this is definitely a contrarian view point,as I  refuse to stay inside the box by  following the mainstream medias viewpoint and instead look at all possible indicators and factors.   Its hard betting against the Tide, but I am very impressed with Georgia's ability to play two way football, something Saban's side does not look capable of doing in their current form. It will be Georgia's superior  offensive abilities  that will be the difference maker here today.

GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS  L/6  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5or less  yards per return. Bulldogs HC Smart is 7-0 ATS  L/7 in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (GEORGIA) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 23-3 ATS L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia to cover

Both these teams own amazing defenses, but I'm betting on both sides pushing each other, in back forth fashion,  and for this game to eventually go over the total. Clemson has recently shown some offensive explosiveness, scoring 38,31, 61, 34, and 38 points in their L/5 respectively , and will do more damage than most projections this week, against what is still a banged up Alabama defense full of 5 star waling wounded. I really feel the Tide, will have to go out of their comfort zone here and open up the playbook in shocking fashion.

Over is 5-0 in Crimson Tide last 5 games in January.Over is 10-3 in Crimson Tide last 13 bowl games.Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games in January.

ALABAMA is 20-7 OVER  L/27 as a neutral field favorite with a combined average score of 51.8 ppg scored.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (ALABAMA) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in January games are 28-5 OVER L/25 seasons for 85% long term conversion rate.

CFB Any team against the total (CLEMSON) - in major bowl games (played in January), in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 24-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

CITRUS BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL


Notre Dame and their top tier coach Brian Kelly put together a fine group on the field this campaign , and overall they played incredible ball for 90% of this season and looked like play off contenders . Playing at such a high level against what was some very strong competition this season , finally saw them slip towards the end against Miami fl and Stanford, suffering stagnant losses. It must be noted that the Catholic boys faced the toughest schedule of all bowl teams this season and must be respected here against a average SEC team in LSU. Yes, I know HC Orgeron is liked by his players, and finished strong, but I cannot over look the ugly effort they had against Troy at home this season, and consistent lapses in this teams abiity to be motivated. It must also be noted that new Hcs in Bowl games as favorites of less than 4 points are just 6-15 ATS L/21.

I really believe this is a coaching mismatch, and I'm betting after a month off Notre Dame will be ready to roll again. Kelly is 25-12 ATS in his career when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better) .

Play on Notre Dame to cover

CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL - Hard Rock Stadium - Miami, FL

Miami fl after a strong season finished off their campaign with a couple of down performances vs  Pittsburgh followed by a ACC Championship loss vs defending national champion Clemson . This was a Miami Fl side that was talked about as a national contender and missed the play offs by one game. Remember the Canes were also undefeated before those two above mentioned losses and in no way should be disrespected here vs Wisconsin. Miami I'm betting will do just fine vs a Badgers side that despite of being a defensive juggernaut have problems vs top tier secondary's ranking 112 in intercepted passes . Note: Hurricanes had 15 interceptions this season.

ACC Bowl underdogs are 10-0-1 ATS l/11 against Big 10 opposition  .

CFB road team vs. the money line (WISCONSIN) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 3-29 SU L/25 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors  losing by an average of 17.8 ppg.

Play on  Miami Fl  to cover

TAXSLAYER BOWL - Everbank Field - Jacksonville, FL

The Mississippi State defense enters this game vs Louisville very under rated. This season the Bulldogs went against some explosive offenses in SEC play so facing ,Louisville's top tier offense will not be an issue. Miss State looked very strong against the pass, ( 302 total yards per game), ranking 10th in the nation and allowed opposing run games to average just 127 rushing yards per game. The Bulldogs proved their defensive ferociousness in a close 31-24 loss to number one ranked Alabama.. Meanwhile, Louisville despite of being offensively explosive are well below average defensively, as was evident when they allowed 41 points to Clemson, and 42 points to Wake Forest and more than one defensive lapse against average offenses during their less than memorable campaign. Today against a Mississippi State team that can control the clock with a vaunted running game and a versatile QB under center ( Nick Fitzgerald) I'm betting the Bulldogs have a very viable opponent . Also look for Louisville and their super star under center LaMar Jackson to struggle at key junctures of this game and fail to cover the number.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 16-3 ATS L/18 after playing a game at home .Petrino is 5-15 ATS L/20 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers .
against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are just 41-74 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Mississippi State to cover

 CAMPING WORLD BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

Virginia Tech finished their season by shutting out long time rivals Virginia in their final game of the season by a 10-0 count. VTech defense was phenomenal this season allowing an average of just 13.5 ppg. They should also be a handful for a an explosive Oklahoma St offense here today. Meanwhile, on the flipside, the Cowboys D, is porous, allowing 30.1 ppg on the season. What I;m betting will happen is that VTech will score with consistency today, while Oklahoma State will stall on key drives, which will be the difference maker. 

Gundy is 5-13 ATS L/18 vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.
Fuente is 9-0 ATS L/9 when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games. and is  10-1 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games.

OKLAHOMA ST is 6-19 ATS L/25  vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game .

Play on VTech to cover

ACADEMY SPORTS + OUTDOORS TEXAS BOWL - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

Missouri ended their season as one of the hottest teams in the nation winning 6 straight. Meanwhile, Texas after a disastrous start to their season, getting pummelled by Maryland in their opener, in front of  their own embarrassed fans , picked  things up as the season progressed and looked like a viable opponent by the end of their campaign.

Missouri is an explosive offensive team, but their defense is atrocious, ranking 122 in red zone defense. Today I expect top tier HC tom Herman who is 9-1 ATS as a dog , to be well prepared for the Tigers attack after a 1 month preparation time, and for his own capable offense to smash and grab a cover for us here today against a group of pylons.

TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att.

Play on Texas  to cover

FOSTER FARMS BOWL - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Rich Rodriguez's Arizona started their season strong ,but ended their campaign on a down note losing 3 of their L/4 games and on the season the defense was a big concern as they surrendered 40 or more points in 5 of their 9 games. Meanwhile, their opponents today Purdue , went 6-6 on the seasons and notched 4 conference victories and are being under rated here by the lines-makers. The Boilermakers HC Jeff Brohm is a major planner and motivator and has a perfect 3-0 record in Bowl games and gets my support here today.

Big 10 teams are 10-4-1 ATS vs PAC 12 Bowl opponents. Arizona's HC Rich Rod is 3-23 ATS vs Big 10 opposition.

ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in road games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return.Rodriguez is 2-13 ATS L/15  in road games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored.

Play on Purdue to cover

QUICK LANE BOWL - Ford Field - Detroit, MI

A lot has been made about how Northern Illinois beat Nebraska earlier this season, but the truth is the Corn huskers were not that good  . Also a lot of pundits also seem to like to point out how well this blue collar Huskies program , has played on the road over the years winning 37 of 51 games, but fail to point out that NIU are  2-10 ATS  L/12 as a neutral field underdog, and how they have crashed and burned in 4 straight Bowl outings, and last year look like they made a ghost appearance by not showing up in a 55-7 blasting at the hands of Boise State.  Now they go against  a viable ACC team, that have a huge front 7 that can slow down a average Huskies offensive attack. Also from a turnover perspective it must be noted that NIU were on the negative end of the turnover battle in 6 of their L/9 games, which is not a good omen vs a Duke team that protects the ball well, and better at forcing turnovers. I know 9 of the 10 Quick Lane games have been decided by TD points or less and this one might end up like that to , but it will be Duke that gets the cover as my number makes them 6.5 to 7 point chalk thus giving us value on this line.

DUKE is 21-8 ATS  L/29 in games played on turf and their current HC Cutcliffe is 15-3 ATS  in games played on turf with the average margin of victory coming by 6.6 points per game.

Play on Duke to cover

HAWAII BOWL - Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI

Fresno State is a fine football team, and have been a cash cow for their betting backers this season, when playing as dogs going 6-0 ATS.  With Houston losing Tom Herman to Texas this past season, they were  not as dangerous, with a 100 yard difference on defense. The Cougars are weak favorites here vs a side that my own rankings suggest is the superior side.

FRESNO ST is 8-0 ATS  L/8 when playing against a team with a winning record. FRESNO ST is 7-0 ATS   vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.FRESNO ST is 7-0 ATS    off a road loss which happened against Boise State (17-14).Bulldogs are 11-1 L/12 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.

Favorites in this Bowl game just 2-8 ATS L/10.

Play on Fresno State to cover

These teams battled it out last season in bowl competition, with App State taking a 31-28 thriller. now in the rematch I'm expecting another close confrontation.

The matchup showcases a explosive Toledo offense,  and a team that went 11-2 on the season. Meanwhile, Appalachian State lost four games this season,   but  three of its four defeats in 2017 came  by seven points or less, including a one-point defeat to what has suddenly  become a potent  Wake Forest side. The only other loss for the Mountaineers was a 31-10 loss at Georgia in the opener , which is a play off team for a national championship.

Tonight I expect App State to counter Toledos big time attack, by pounding the ball on the ground and controlling time of possession. The Mountaineers averaged around 31 minutes in time of possession this year and will be the catalyst for them getting us the cover here tonight.

Sun Belt teams have won 4 of the L/5 Dollar General Bowl games

Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - after a win by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more last game. 26-64 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 71% for bettors.

Play on App state to cover

LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL - Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

These two solid rushing teams and defenses will go head today in a game that I'm betting will be fairly low scoring and tightly contested. Army has dealt well with ground heavy attacks this season, beating both Air force and Navy, and facing RB Rashaad Penny and company will not be a difficult for them. Meanwhile, look for Army's multi faceted rushing offense, that averaged 335 ypg, to do more than enough damage to keep them competitive and possibly pull off the upset. It must be noted that Military bowl teams are 22-4 ATS L/26 vs .600 or better opposition.

This  is Army's seventh all-time bowl appearance. Army is 4-2 in previous post season games, and those six  appearances have been decided by a total of 19 points  and  all by a touchdown or less and I'm expecting a rinse and repeat situation here in this game.

HC Rocky Long of SD St is has lost  7 of his 11 Bowl Games.

Aztecs are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Aztecs are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. INDEP.Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.

Play on Army to cover

.

I have this game projected to provide some big holiday season offensive fireworks. The Bulls are averaging 38.3 points (No. 15 in FBS statistics), the Red Raiders 34.3. The Bulls have an edge in defensive numbers, holding opponents to 22.5 points per game to Texas Tech's 31.8, but they gave up 533 yards to UCF in their finale and I'm betting they will be gauged again  in what I'm betting will be a back and forth affair.

TEXAS TECH is 26-9 OVER  L/35  in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game with a combined average of 72.4 ppg going on the board.TEXAS TECH is 6-0 OVER  L/6   in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games with a combined average of 83.3 ppg scored.TEXAS TECH is 12-3 OVER  L/15  on a neutral field where the total is greater than or equal to 63 with a combined average of 82.4 ppg scored. HC Kingsbury is 6-0 OVER  L/6 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more  rushing yards/game  with a combined average of 94.6 ppg scored.

Play OVER

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL - Albertons Stadium - Boise, ID

Central Michigan is a very under rated team, that has beaten the likes of Western Michigan, and Northern Illinois this season and been extremely competitive all season and can move the ball in key situations. They have won four straight and enter this tilt with momentum. Meanwhile, QB Josh Allen and Wyoming , have experienced a disappointing season an inability to move the ball, and the future NFL draft pick is banged up with a sore shoulder for this game which will not help his teams cause. Both teams force their opponents to make mistakes and get turnovers, so their even there. The difference maker I'm betting comes via Central Michigan's ability to score with more frequency than Wyoming. I know the Cowboys have shown some decent defense this season, but Northern Illinois also is tough defensively and Central Michigan found a way to beat them, and I'm betting on a similar effort here from Chippewa's vs a Wyoming side that I have ranked below 3 other MAC teams .

C MICHIGAN is 10-1 ATS in road games when they are outgain their opponents by 50-100 yards something I'm projecting will happen.


CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WYOMING) - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are just 8-27 L/10 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Central Michigan to cover

Florida International is a team that currently ranks/ rates fairly high on my own power ranking charts for smaller conference football programs. Meanwhile, Temple in my humble opinion gets way to much respect based on past seasons, under a different head coach. This season , the Owls have shown flashes of their previous brilliant efforts dating back a couple of seasons, but make no mistake that this team is no longer as good as the linesmakers and many pundits might have you believe. Fl Inters HC Davis, who also had head coaching stints at North Carolina and the Cleveland Browns in addition to his time at Miami, has a veteran at quarterback in senior Alex McGough, whom he calls "one of the best quarterbacks that I've been around at all levels of coaching."
McGough has completed 65.3 percent of his passes for 2,791 yards and 17 touchdowns against only eight interceptions and I'm betting he will be a key catalyst in FIU covering here tonight.

HC Butch Davis was 6-0 against the Owls in his time at Miami.


Florida Inter - HC Davis is 16-1 ATS after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game and is 7-0 ATS L/7 after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game in all games .( FIU beat Umass 63-45 in their finale in outrushed them 379 to 156. )

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 32-9 ATS L/25 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - after a win by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more last game are 25-64 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida International to cover

CAMELLIA BOWL - Crampton Bowl - Montgomery, AL

Middle Tenn State enters this bowl game having failed to cover 4 straight bowl appearances and I'm betting on another loss here vs Arkansas State this week . I know a lot has been made of how Middle Tennessee State had to endure playing without injured QB Brent Stockstill the son of the Blue Raiders coach, but the truth is with or without him in the line this  MTSU is just plain over rated and according to my numbers in over their head vs Red Wolves team that out gained their final 7 opponents of the season. . Meanwhile, Arkansas State boasts an explosive QB Justice Hansen who averages 330 ypg, and has converted 34 TDs this season and the team as whole averages more than 2 TDs a game more than their opponents tonight. I waited to get -3 and a few books have made it available so, I have decided to pull the trigger.

MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-10 ATS L/11 after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins and is   9-22 ATS in road games after playing 3 straight conference games.

Play on Arkansas State to cover

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL - Dreamstyle Stadium - Albuquerque, NM

The Marshall Thundering herd enter Bowl action with an established college football pedigree that must be respected. Marshall is 10-1 SU ATS in their L/11 Bowl games, and are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS vs .580 or better opposition like Colorado State. Meanwhile, Colorado State since beating up on Oregon State have been a disappointment this season, and are currently on a 0-6 ATS run.

CUSA Bowl teams are very successful of late winning 22 of their L/33 SU since 2011.

Holliday is 9-1 ATS L/10  when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest .

Play on Marshall to cover
 

AUTONATION CURE BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

Both these teams struggled to put points on the board this season, with W.Kentucky averaging only 19 ppg away from home, and Georgia State 19.7 ppg overall on offense. I'm betting on points to once again be hard to by for both sides, and for the combined total score to end up on the low side of the number.

GEORGIA ST is 12-4 UNDER  L/16 when the total is between 49.5 and 56 with a combined average of 44.7 ppg scored.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (GEORGIA ST/W.KENTUCKY) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) are 36-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for Totals bettors.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL - Superdome - New Orleans, LA

North Texas enters this game as TD underdog vs the Sun Belt champion Troy. However, it must be noted that UNT is 9-0 SU all time vs Sun Belt sides when they own a .500 record or better , and Troy is just 2-7 ATS /0-4 ATS L/4 as favs vs CUSA opposition and have failed to cover 3 of 4 as Bowl favorites. I know the Mean Green looked horrid in their championship tilt vs Florida Atlantic , but the good news is that CUSA Bowl teams are 13-2 ATS off a loss. Note: Conference USA sides  like N.Texas in Bowl Games over the L/6 seasons are 22-11 SU. I also noticed Troy looked wiped at the end of the season and despite of beating Arkansas State in their last game were actually out gained by more than 300 yards.

NORTH TEXAS is 10-2 ATS  L/12 in road games after trailing in their previous game by 24 or more points.

Play on North Texas to cover

Navy after a fast start to their campaign had the wheels fall of their proverbial wagon going down the stretch as is evident by  losing, 5 of their L/6 games. Meanwhile, Army has really shown me alot this season and are one of the best groups the Cadets have had on the field in a long time. The Cadets shut out the other military academy Air Force this season, and have had this game circled on their calendars for a long time. I'm not sure they will win this game, but one thing I'm betting on is that  nothing will come easy for Navy in their current form, which gives a very motivated Army side the edge taking points. The last two games in this series were decided by identical 21-17 scores, with Army covering both times.

Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Neutral field underdogs (ARMY) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 22-3 ATS L/25 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Army to cover

No. 5 Wisconsin and No. 9 Ohio State are not only playing for the conference title again this Saturday, but both programs have a opportunity to make the College Football Playoff. Needless to say this game I'm betting will be a hard fought grueling event that will see getting points as a golden opportunity. With Ohio State QB JT Barrett at less than 100% with a knee injury , I expect his team will be at a disadvantage. I know their are skeptics out there that think Wisconsin played a weak schedule this season, but going undefeated is not an easy feat and the Badgers deserve respect. With that said, look for the catalyst of a Wisconsin cover and possible upset to come from , RB Jonathan Taylor, who has run behind a massive offensive line for 1,806 yards and leads the Big Ten in rushing vs a Ohio State side that has shown many defensive deficiencies during this current campaign. note: Wisconsin also leads the Big Ten in fewest rushing yards (80.5), total yards (236.9) and points (12.0) allowed per game.

OHIO ST is 0-6 ATS L/6 off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.WISCONSIN is 7-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games ,

The underdog has won 4 of the L/6 Big 10 Championship games SU since its inception in 2011, and covered all 6 times.


CFB team (WISCONSIN) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a good defense (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 26-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wisconsin to cover 1 unit reg selection

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Bank of American Stadium - Charlotte, NC

Miami after a great season, looked a little tired emotionally in a loss to Pittsburgh last week. Meanwhile Clemson, hammered South Carolina , solidifying their chances among the pundits at a repeat College play off appearance. However, it must be noted that .800 or better teams off a chalk loss and than going to a conference championship game are 8-0 SU and 2-0 SU/ATS as underdogs. With that said, what 'm betting happened to Miami Fl last week, was that they were in a look ahead situation, and completely overlooked their opponent .  Now wide awake and ready to compete, I'm betting they give Clemson a run for their money.  It must also be noted that national champs are 0-4 ATS L/4 in conference tilts if they are favs of 14 points or less. Add to that Mark Richts Miami program has only 1 previous loss by more than 7 points.

CLEMSON is 12-25 ATS  L/37 after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins .

Play on the Miami Fl to cover

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Bank of American Stadium - Charlotte, NC

Miami after a great season, looked a little tired emotionally in a loss to Pittsburgh last week. Meanwhile Clemson, hammered South Carolina , solidifying their chances among the pundits at a repeat College play off appearance. However, it must be noted that .800 or better teams off a chalk loss and than going to a conference championship game are 8-0 SU and 2-0 SU/ATS as underdogs. With that said, what 'm betting happened to Miami Fl last week, was that they were in a look ahead situation, and completely overlooked their opponent .  Now wide awake and ready to compete, I'm betting they give Clemson a run for their money.  It must also be noted that national champs are 0-4 ATS L/4 in conference tilts if they are favs of 14 points or less. Add to that Mark Richts Miami program has only 1 previous loss by more than 7 points.

CLEMSON is 12-25 ATS  L/37 after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins .

Play on the Miami Fl to cover

This is  a Troy football program (9-2) that took a big fat cheque from LSU earlier this season to play against them in their own back yard. They not only took that money but they took a SU win as DD dogs.So needless to say this Trojans team is not easily intimidated. With the added revenge factor for Troy as they look to get payback for a  ugly loss last year by a 35-3 count, to this same Arkansas State program (7-3), you can bet your bottom dollar we are backing a motivated and talented side on a current 5 game win streak..

TROY is 9-1 ATS  L/10 after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games/

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TROY) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Troy to cover

AAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Spectrum Stadium - Orlando, FL

The difference between Memphis and UCF comes down to defense. Both can score in bunches, but only one of these teams has something that resembles a defense, and that is the Knights. In their head to head meeting on Sept30 all the intangibles were on display ,    as UCF punished the Tigers 40-13 in an easy win. The Knights not only ran up 603 yards of total offense to the 396 of the Tigers, but they came up with four takeaways while giving the ball away only once. While some might think revenge is key here in a possible cover for Memphis, and competitive showing or upset, it must also be noted that revenge minded sides, in conference championship tilts are 0-6 SU L/6 when taking on a .916 or better opponent while failing to cover 5 of 6 times. The host in this series is 6-0 ATS L/6 , and I'm betting on the 7th straight cover today and UCF is a perfect 10-0 L/10 SU in this series and have covered 5 straight at home vs Memphis.

Play on UCF to cover 1 unit reg selection

PAC 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levis Stadium - Santa Clara, AZ

Stanford according to my own data and power rankings have gotten better as this season, has progressed, and are better prepared for a USC team that handily beat them in their first meeting this season in week 2 action. the Cardinal have only lost one game by more than 3 points in their L/18 games overall, and the above mentioned tilt was it.

More recently the Cardinal proved their prowess with a 38-20 win vs a very good Notre Dame Irish side at the Farm last week. Meanwhile, USC rested and prepared for this tilt. However, it must be noted that rested sides in conference championship tilts are just 3-8 ATS L/11 vs a side looking for revenge.

On the season, the Trojans are averaging only 2.5 ppg more than the Cardinal , and from a  cross reference power ranking standpoint are dead even with their underdog foes, making Stanford a viable side to back.

The Cardinal HC Shaw is 9-0 SU L/14 when getting points . Cardinal are also 7-0 SU/ATS in conference championship game after winning PAC12 North. USC is 2-8 ATS L/10 Neutral site games.USC is 1-8 ATS L/9 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better.)STANFORD is 21-8 ATS L/29 in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging  450 yards/game or more.STANFORD is 31-8 ATS  after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better, which happened vs the Irish last week.

Play on Stanford to cover 

LSU showed me their vulnerabilities when they lost to Troy on Sept. 30 to fall to 3-2 on the season. I know they have played much better of late, but I'm still not sold on HC Ed Orgeron and company . Meanwhile, Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin is on the hot seat and really needs a win and a competitive showing here today. QUOTE: "I came here to Texas A&M to win football games," Sumlin said. "What we do and how we've done it has been the right way. It will continue to be the right way."END QUOTE. He is a quality coach and top tier recruiter, and I respect his abilities a lot, and I'm betting he has the Aggies ready to compete tonight vs a opponent that despite of a recent 5-0 ATS run is just 4 -16 ATS at home as a favorite off a win.

LSU is 2-10 ATS  L/12  in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins .

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Texas A&M - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 67-31 ATS  L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas A&M to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last season Oregon State took out Oregon by a 34-24 count in their last game of the season, which resulted on the Ducks not getting a bowl bid.  It was ugly, and the boosters were in a nasty mood. Now with redemption at hand, and the no mercy rule, thrown out, I expect the Ducks to come out here looking to annihilate their opponent. When their top tier QB Justin Herbert has been under center this season the Ducks average around 48 points per game in offense, as was the case last week in a beat down of  pretty good looking Arizona side by a 48-28 count.  I expect at least that many points today for Oregon in a complete game one sided victory vs the beavers 118 ranked D, that is allowing 466 YPG.

OREGON ST is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in road games after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game  losing SU by an average of 28.6 ppg.

Play on Oregon to cover 1 unit reg selection

Georgia Southern after being completely asleep at the proverbial wheel, all season long, finally woke up last week, and decided to go on a rampage by destroying South Alabama by a 52-0 count as underdogs. Now behind a revived running game that averaged 5.4 ypg last week,  I expect they use the momentum of that win to come out and take down another opponent. Needless to say , interim HC Chad Lundsford ability to wake these kids from their naps, makes me  feel confident they can answer the bell again vs a UL Lafayette football program that has been highly inconsistent this season and just 2-2 in their L/4 overall. With that said,  I'm recommending we take the points . Note: UL Lafayette is just 3-13 ATS L/16 as home favorites.

By the way I know the Georgia Southern D, has been porous at times this season, but LA LAFAYETTE is just  3-13 ATS  L/16   in home games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing  6.25 or more  yards/play  and 7-18 ATS  L/25  in home games when playing against a lower tier team with a win % of .250 or less.

LA LAFAYETTE is 1-11 ATS  L/12  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2.

CFB  Road underdogs like Georgia Southern  - with a lower tier defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 80-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover

In between some ugly performances Rutgers has actually played some decent ball this season, and from time to time have looked competitive as wins vs Purdue, Illinois, and Maryland would suggest. Meanwhile, their visiting opponents the  Spartans are not the type of team that crushes their opponents, against even those sides that have looked inferior , and  have no wins of 10 points or more in conference play this season. I'm betting Rutgers elevates their game looking for an upset and DAntonio and company do what they do best, grind out a slow sleepy win.  With that said ,I'm recommending we take the points.

MICHIGAN ST is 0-7 ATS  L/7 when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). MICHIGAN ST is 0-8 ATS  L/8 as a road favorite .MICHIGAN ST is 4-15 ATS  L/19  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games.

CFB home team vs. the money line like RUTGERS - off 2 consecutive road losses, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 29-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team vs. the money line like Rutgers - off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 30-6 SU L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rutgers to cover 1 unit reg selection

It must be noted that this Alabama group is banged up right now with key defensive deficiencies. Yes, the Tide are deep and another 5 star recruit takes over for the injured player, but theirs a reason why  one guy got the start over the other guy.  Needless to say, as was the case last week against Mississippi State , the Tide, are currently short handed, and their offense is still not as fluid as it needs to be and must add they are not unbeatable. Despite of my great respect for the Tide, the Auburn football program they play today, are hitting their stride, and looking very much like  a contender for the National Championship. Since their early season hard fought loss to Clemson, the offense has jelled ,  and comes in on a roll, scoring 40 points or more in seven of its last eight games.The Auburn defensive front has also been amazing,  and are run stoppers extroidnare – as was the case vs Georgia ( 46 yards) and have not allowed 200  rushing yards on the year – and their secondary is equally brilliant as was evident against stud QB Nick Fitzgerald and the Mississippi State as they held him  under a  35% completion rate. In a tilt that could mark a changing in the guard in the SEC , I'm betting Auburn gets us the cover, and are a strong candidate to do the unthinkable , get the outright upset vs Alabama. This game has the feel of a late FG decision, making getting points with Auburn a viable investment option.

AUBURN is 14-1 ATS  L/15  in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game and 10-1 ATS  L/11  in home games vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game.

Nick Saban in his history as a coach has never beaten a .750 or better Auburn squad going 0-4 SU lifetime.

CFB home underdogs like Auburn  that have scored 40 or more points in each of their L/3 tilts, and facing a team off a win by 3 or more points are a bankroll expanding 20-4 ATS L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team vs. the money line like AUBURN - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 25-6 for a 81% conversion rate dating back 25 seasons.

Play on the Auburn Tigers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both starting  QBs for Boston College and their hosts Syracuse are expected to miss todays game. Boston without  QB Anthony Brown have proven over an over again,  that without him under center , moving the ball is like moving a 2000lb rock, which I'm betting will be their downfall today. Add to that Boston College already has a Bowl game locked up, and probably looking ahead to greener pastures , and you have a situation where the home dog will be motivated to prove they are better than some of their recent results suggest and finish off their season on a high note in front of their own alumni. Note: With Dungey out a QB for the Orange , they will concentrate on pounding the ball on the ground, and with that said,  it must be noted that BC has allowed 5 ypc, this season and are vulnerable via the opposing ground game.

BC has covered on 5 of their L/21 as a road fav vs a team off consecutive losses.

CFB home team vs. the money line like Syracuse - off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 30-6 SU L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. ( Louisville clobbered Syracuse 56-10 last time out) .\

Play on Syracuse to cover 1 unit reg selection

HC Mike Riley is most likely on the way out of the door at Nebraska. However, the old ball coach has a little something left in his proverbial tank, and I'm betting he motivates his downtrodden team to a cover here at home, vs a Iowa football program, that looks to be living on their laurels of a recent upset win vs Ohio State. Since that monumental win the Hawkeyes have lost two straight and have been outscored by a combined 62-29 count. I know Nebraska has also lost two straight but in the past have proven resilient from a ATS standpoint cashing 13 of his L/14 after consecutive losses.

NEBRASKA is 29-9 ATS  L/38 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.NEBRASKA is 15-3 ATS L/18 after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game.NEBRASKA is 21-8 ATS  L/29 after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game. ( Last week the Cornhuskers lost 55-44 to Penn State)

Play on Nebraska to cover 1 unit reg selection

South Florida (9-1)  and UCF (10-0) according to my own power rankings and cross reference matchup systems  are very evenly matched and  the point spread should be much closer to  a one possession spread . With the pressure of staying undefeated a deterrent for UCF, this situation  also offers up an opportunity for a strong dog to pull off what would not be a surprising upset. South Florida has conclusively beaten UCF in their L/2 meetings, and today I'm betting they get us the cover on a bloated line again.

My own projections estimate that S.Florida will score between 22-28 points which is a good omen , considering the Bulls are 16-4 ATS L/20  in road games when they score 22 to 28 points.

CFB Road underdogs like SOUTH FLORIDA - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more), after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 87-37 L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs like SOUTH FLORIDA - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

South Florida to cover 1 unit reg selection

Nevada owns a 2-8 record on the season, thanks in part to what must be considered an atrocious defense, especially on the road where they have allowed an average of 40.4 ppg.  The Wolfpacks only saving grace has been a sometimes explosive offense, but today against a very strong San Diego State D, allowing an average of just 18.8 ppg their in big trouble vs a team that is 18-0 SU and   12-1 ATS L/13 when playing against a team with a losing record , with he average score clicking in at SD St 37.4 opposition 8.5.  Add to that Rocky Longs, great late season runs of late that have seen him go 9-0 SU 8-0-1 ATS in his L/4 games of the season when coming off a DD ATS win which happened last time out in a 52-7 ATS blasting of San Jose State. No mercy rule in effect here tonight.

CFB road team vs. the money line like Nevada - cold team, after having lost 8 or more out of their last 10 games against opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games are 1-34 SU losing SU by an average of 26.1 ppg.

 CFB  home team vs. the money line like San Diego State - team outrushing opponents by 80+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG after 7+ games, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 29-1 SU winning by an average of 24.2 ppg.

Play on the San Diego State Aztecs to cover 1 unit reg selection

No. 19 North Carolina State  wants this game badly and  is on the verge of something special if they can get a 9 win season, stay in the top 25 and garner a big pay day with a top tier Bowl appearance. Needless to say North Carolina State is very motivated entering this tilt against a over rated Wake Forest program that despite of a explosive 64-43  win last week, vs Syracuse still allowed a whopping 621 yards on defense, and in the game before that allowed 710 yards to Notre Dame. I just don't like them today vs a a football program that has owned them of late winning three straight SU/ATS by an average of 22 points per game and are 8-1 L/9 in this series when the Deacons are off a win. I'm also betting on Wake Forest to be in an emotional letdown state , after last week astounding come back win.

WAKE FOREST is 0-7 ATS  L/7 after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Wake Forest - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 8-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Demon Deacons - in a game involving two good rushing teams (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games are 13-44 ATS for a76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on N.C State to cover 1 unit reg selection

I've kept an eye on Old Dominion , as I have been looking for improvement over the season, and I can see their on a upward trajectory. Last week vs FIU as DD road dogs, they took a 37-30 win in a game they actually dominated despite of the slight 7 point difference. The Monarchs freshman QB  Steven Williams, continues to improve as their starting QB was injured earlier in the season. He had a 168 yards rushing, and 3 TDS in last weeks game, and give Old dominion the edge this week, vs a Rice team that can be best described as futile, allowing 40 or more points in 5 of their L/6 games. Note:OLD DOMINION is 7-0 ATS  L/7 vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game Last year winning SU by an average of 13.7 ppg. the Owls lost to the Monarchs by a 45-42 count as 7 point favorites, and look like weak dogs this week vs a Old Dominion side that is 16-0 SU L/16 as chalk, and 10--1-1 L/12 against the spread.

CFB Road underdogs like Rice - lower tier team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored are 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Old Dominion to cover 1 unit reg selection

After back to back losses to Miami Fl and Georgia Tech I'm sure this Virginia Tech Hokies group feels downtrodden. With really nothing left o play for I cannot see them performing at optimal speed here today giving credence to my recommendation on taking a Pittsburgh team that needs a win badly to get a Bowl invite. In the past no matter which team has been better at the time, it seems the Panthers have found a way to be competitive as their 9-1 ATS and 6-3 SU record in this series would indicate. Overall Pittsburghs been a tough out on the road of late cashing 6 of their L/7 away as dogs, and are 6-2 ATS L/8 as conference dogs of 13 points or more,.

CFB road team like Pittsburgh - after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are  95-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors .

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 1 unit reg selection

E.Carolina has struggled for most of this season , thanks to a defense, that has allowed 45 ppg  during their 2017 campaign , and also a  offense that has generated just 23.8 ppg. I know visiting Cincinnati may not inspire bettors but this is a very winnable game for them. The Bearcats have shown life,  and some upward trajectory in games vs Navy, SMU and a recent upset win vs Tulane, and are a viable side to back in this tilt of downtrodden sides. In other words , the lesser of two evils, is the choice here today. ( Lay the FG with the Bearcats)

E CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards or less per return losing SU by an average of  11.2 ppg.

E CAROLINA is 1-10 ATS  L/11 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 and 0-7 ATS  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 63.E CAROLINA is 2-12 ATS  L/14 against conference opponents and 0-6 ATS  L/6 in November games .E CAROLINA is 0-9 ATS L/9after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like E.Carolina  - after playing a game at home, in weeks 10 through 13 are just 13-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cincinnati Bearcats to cover 1 unit reg selection

Texas since their ugly opening loss to Maryland have steadily improved under Tom Herman, and I don't think we have seen them at their very best quite yet and could easily see them in top form today as they need one more win to secure a bowl bid. Meanwhile,  West Virginia already has a bowl game in their December plans,  and may not be as motivated as their opponents. With that said, I'm betting we have an edge vs a W.Virginia side that has  not faired well as home chalk of late vs .500 or above conference  opposition  going 3-11 ATS . Meanwhile, the LongHorns HC Herman is 8-1 ATS L/7 as a underdog lifetime and has covered 11 of his L/13 vs a power 5 football programs and proved their metal in a recent road win vs Iowa State a home win vs KState, and two hard fought close losses to Oklahoma State by 3 points and a 5 point loss to Oklahoma. Note: My own projections tell me Texas will score 22 points or more, which is a good omen, as TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 when they score 22 to 28 points over the last few seasons.

 CFB road team like the Longhorns - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection

Western Kentucky does not look like the powerhouse it has been over the last few seasons, but Middle Tennessee State according to my own cross reference power ranking suggest that neither are the Blue raiders. Both sides have identical records . I know that Midd Tenn State has won 2 straight games convincingly , but those were against lowly UTEP and Charlotte. Meanwhile, W.Kentucky played Vanderbilt and Marshall very tough in back to back games, and despite of losing were looking better than the pundits might have you expect. Yes, the Hilltoppers as mentioned above may not be as potent some of their past incarnations, but are very viable home underdogs in this spot and have more than 50% chance of pulling off a straight up win.

MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-9 ATS  L/10 after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins  

W.Kentucky is 6-2 ATS L/8 at home while Midd Tenn State is 1-6 ATS L/7 CUSA road tilts.

W KENTUCKY is 22-8 ATS  L/30 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection

Eastern Michigan thanks to a usually staunch D,  has been very competitive all season long, and must not be underestimated as dog this Wednesday night despite of a sub par 3-7 record. Meanwhile, Miami O, despite of a 6-4 record has been very inconsistent this season, as recent losses vs downtrodden Kent State and Bowling Green demonstrates.

HC of E. Michigan Creighton is 8-0 ATS  L/8  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 yards or less per return.E MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS L/6 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and 8-1 ATS L/9 as a road underdog.

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Miami Ohio - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are just 15-43 ATS the L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on  Eastern Michigan to cover  1 unit reg selection

Oklahoma  now 8-1 on the season showed themselves to be one of the most potent offensive teams in the Big 12 last week and maybe the nation as they went into Stillwater and took a 62-52 shootout affair vs Oklahoma State.  While some teams might tank after an emotional slugfest like that I'm betting instead the Sooners will be motivated to get the win here tonight as they look to make up for a shocking loss to a Iowa State side, that they may have under estimated, back on Oct 7. A victory here for Oklahoma vs a 8-1 TCU program ,that also lost to Iowa State 14-7, will also pad their resume, as both  the Sooners and Horned Frogs must still be considered outside contenders for the national championship play off. Another loss for either team and their dream is over, so this is a must win situation for both sides.  Here  in their own building in front of  what will be a frenzied home crowd I feel the Sooners have the edge.

 By the way folks I respect TCU and their vaunted D a great deal, but theirs an old adage, that goes something like this . Defense wins championships , but  offense win games. Whether you agree or feel this statement is irrelevant  or not.... I still say- Advantage Sooners  via the arm of Baker Mayfield and the nations best offensive line.

OKLAHOMA is 8-1 ATS  L/9 when playing against a team with a winning record , with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 16.3 ppg.OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs. TCU is 2-11 ATS  L/13 in games played on a grass field, losing by an average of 9.4 ppg.

CFB Home favorites like Oklahoma  - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games are 45-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team vs. the money line like the Sooners - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more ) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less), after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 52-17 SU L/25 seasons with the average combined margin of victory coming by 11.5 ppg,( 33.4 to 24.7)

Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover

Missouri has beaten up on three straight teams, two of them came against lower tier opponents UConn and Idaho, and the last time out against a Florida Gators program that looks like they have given up on their season. Previous to that they lost 4 straight against better programs , like Auburn, Georgia, Purdue, and Kentucky. Meanwhile as bad as Tennessee has been they have been competitive for the most part this season, and matchup well vs a defenseless one way Missouri squad that depends on their offense alone to win games. Only Alabama has put more than 29 points on the board in their L/8 vs the Vols ,a D that is  capable of slowing down Missouri in this spot.  I know old Rocky Top might not inspire bettors this season, but my own numbers and projections  suggest this game is settled by a TD or less making this a viable underdog betting situation.

TENNESSEE is 18-7 ATS  L/25 vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game.

Tennessee is 2-0 SU/ATS L/2  meetings in this series.

Home favorites Missouri - off 1 or more consecutive unders, excellent offensive team - scoring 35 or more points/game are 108-166 ATS  for a 61% conversion rate for bettors dating back 5 seasons.

Play on the Tennessee Vols to cover 1 unit reg selection

Kevin Sumlin the HC of Texas A&M is in trouble. His team since their opener against UCLA , when they blew  a huge 34 point  lead, and than lost , has been reeling. It was obvious during the season despite of top tier recruiting, this was a team with little chemistry and focus. That was never more evident than their recent back to back home losses vs Mississippi State and Auburn by DD beat downs. Now the mood is dire to say the least, and these young men  in the Texas A&M football program looked disinterested , which does not bode well for them coming into this non conference game with little meaning attached to it.  I know New Mexico may not inspire many bettors with their recent performances, which includes 11 turnovers in their L/4 games, but they actually matchup well from a ATS perspective vs a side like Texas A&M. I expect the Lobos via a solid ground attack to just be happy eating clock up and here and pounding the rock , which will allow them to stay within the number.  Note:TEXAS A&M is 12-29 ATS  L/41 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more   rushing yards/game.

In the past its not like Sumlin seems to get his team up for lower tier competition and has a history of seeing his team play down to their opponents on a consistent basis ,as this trend will point out. TEXAS A&M is 0-7 ATS L/7  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse is 1-8 ATS   in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return.

TEXAS A&M is 0-8 ATS L/8 in the second half of the season dating back to last season.TEXAS A&M is 0-6 ATS  L/6off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival .NEW MEXICO is 13-2 ATS  off an upset loss as a home favorite

CFB Home favorites like Texas A&M - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are 37-75 ATS for a long term go against conversion rate of 67% for bettors.

Play on New Mexico to cover 1 unit reg selection

USC is off two impressive wins vs two over rated Arizona teams in their L/2 trips to gridiron and now the media/pundits and linesmakers are in love with them again. I know their opponents today Colorado have not been that impressive this season with a 5-5 record, but must not be underestimated especially here in their last home game of the season. In the past the Buffs have been a good bet in their last tilt as hosts cashing 10 of their L/11 tickets for their backers . It must also be noted that the Trojans are just 0-10 ATS L/10 on the road as DD chalk against .500 or greater opposition.

CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like USC- viable team - outgaining their opponents by 1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are just 20-57 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on the Colorado Buffs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Auburn (7-2) before this season started was high on my list of sleeper teams to fight for a national championship and nothing has changed my mind. The loss at Clemson earlier this season was a heartbreaker, and the loss vs LSU a shocker because of a lack of focus in the end half. But do not be fooled by those results as  this is an extremely strong Auburn football program at the moment and they had the opportunity to win both those tilts . I know undefeated 9-0 Georgia continues to get a great deal of accolades, and are an extremely competent team with a big win vs top tier Notre Dame , but I will not be surprised if their undefeated streak comes to an abrupt end here this Saturday. Look for a hard fought tilt, that has the feel of an upset written all over it. Home field advantage will be the difference maker here.It’s a great opportunity for Auburn to climb back into the College Football Playoff conversation and expect they will play like their lives depend on it this week.  Take the points.

AUBURN is 13-1 ATS  L/14   in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game  and  is 9-1 ATS  L/10  in home games vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game.

CFB home team vs. the money line like Auburn - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 23-6 SU the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate, thus getting points here based on this trend alone makes for a viable wagering opportunity.

Play on Auburn to cover 1 unit reg   selection

Iowa is off a resounding 55-24 win vs Ohio State last week, and have been competitive all season long, losing by just 2 points to Penn State at home  and one score ( TD losses) to Northwestern and Michigan State  on the road in hard fought 17-10 defensive affairs In their only  3 losses on the campaign . With that said, I'm betting on  Iowa having  the defensive strength allowing just 18.1 ppg to be competitive against Wisconsin this week at just  under a two TD dog. Note: IOWA is 14-4 ATS  L/18 after scoring 50 points or more last game .Meanwhile, Wisconsin is off a huge beat down of Indiana last week, by a 45-17 count, but have been bad bets in the past ATS under those circumstances as they are just  0-6 ATS  L/6  in home games after a win by 28 or more points and 1-9 ATS L/10   after a cover as a double digit favorite.

Wisconsin is perfect so far on the season, but I'm betting if their perfect season continues it  will not come without difficulties vs a under rated and under appreciated foe.

IOWA is 25-5 ATS  L/30  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more  rushing yards/game.

Iowa has covered 6 of the L/9 meetings in this series. Badgers are 1-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Badgers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

Play on Iowa to cover  1 unit reg selection

My own projections make this a huge win for Ole Miss. Actually one of my biggest of the season behind an SEC team that is improving as their campaign has progressed. I'm estimating that Ole Miss wins this game by 24 plus points on a value line. LA Lafayette D , has allowed 37.4 ppg on the season against average opponents for the most part , while Ole Miss has averaged more than 42 ppg in offensive production at home. Here today I will not be surprised by a 50 point out put by the Rebs and subsequent cover vs a side that has averaged about 21 ppg in offense on the road.

Ragin' Cajuns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.

Road underdogs LA Lafayette - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a road win against a conference rival are 19-32 ATS L/25 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover 1 unit reg selection

Stanford despite of a 6-3 record including last weeks 24-21 loss to Washington State is a team that must be respected as home underdogs. I know their opponents Washington are highly rated, but I'm not that impressed by their resume, despite of the pundits being in love with them and feeling they deserve national play off recognition. With that said, I'm betting on a  revenge minded Stanford crew that lost to Washington last season by a humiliating 44-6 score to be hell bent on pay back and knocking the Huskies off their perch. It must be noted that Washington is only 11-34 SU L/45 on the road vs above .500 foes, while the Cards are 7-0 ATS L/7 as conference home dogs, and 7-1 ATS overall as 4 or more point dogs, and an amazing 13-0 SU L/13 following  a SU favorite loss with HC Shaw at the helm, including 11-0 SU/ATS L/11.Shaw is also 6-0 ATS L/6 after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach and is 8-0 ATS L/8 after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread.

STANFORD is 16-5 ATS L/21  versus excellent defensive teams - allowing  4.25  or less yards/play.WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS  L/17 in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game which happened against Oregon last time out in a 38-3 win.

CFB Road favorites like Washington - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are just 13-37 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on  Stanford to cover  1 unit reg selection

App State no longer looks like a top tier program. Yes, their still to respected because of pedigree and the recruiting  is still decent, but they have recently lost their last two games as favorites and once against look like they are being over rated as they have been out yarded in 4 of their L/5 games. I know Georgia Southern may not inspire bettors, but under new HC Chad Lundsford, who is 2-0 ATS, they  have gradually played better ball , and considering their top tier  ability to run the ball, always remain a dangerous underdog, especially vs a DD line like this. 

APPALACHIAN ST is 0-8 ATS  L/8  in home games vs. lower tier defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game and 2-12 ATS  L/14 in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56.APPALACHIAN ST is 3-13 ATS  L/16  in home games after the first month of the season .

CFB Home favorites like App State  - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are just 37-75 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia Southern  to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Bobcats enter this game with a explosive offense that has put 40 or more points on the board in 3 straight games, and must not be underestimated at home as dogs. I know Toledo is a top tier MAC team, but they are off a grueling hard fought 27-17 win vs Northern Illinois last week and could easily be in a letdown spot here this Wednesday night and go to 1-5 ATS L/6  after taking on NIU.

OHIO U is 7-1 ATS  in games played on turf this season Ohio HC .Solich is 13-4 ATS  L/17 vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season and is 5-0 SU/ATS in his L/5 home game as dog and have covered 4 straight as conference home dogs.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Ohio U- quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 51-20 ATS L10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ohio to cover 1 unit reg selection

The SMU Mustangs have come a long way and are really forming into a very capable football program with an explosive offense, that can be a menace for most teams in this nation including the red hot undefeated UCF Knights who are ranked 15th in the country . With that said, and despite of their record, I myself still have some doubts about, UCF despite of some decent wins against some  pretty good teams, even though these said teams are  still not of the top tier variety . Now here as 14 plus point road favs the Knights  maybe getting just a bit to much love from the lines-makers considering how explosive their opponents the Mustangs can be offensively, making the home dog a  viable SU or back door opportunist here in a home game that will see them and their fans sky high with enthusiasm. This place will be rocking and a upset is not out of the question and a cover a higher probability than many might think possible.

UCF is 2-10 ATS L/12 as 7 or more point conference favs.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like SMU - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 30-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SMU Mustangs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Make no mistake despite of losing last week to Air Force , Colorado State are still the most explosive team in  the Mountain West Conference this season, and I'm betting we see them at their very best this week in rebound mode. They have won 3 of their L/4 on the road, and actually did not look completely out of place vs Alabama in their lone road loss ( 23-41) Meanwhile, Wyoming off a huge revenger last week where they exerted a great deal of energy in a merciless DD win vs New Mexico, by a 42-3 count,  could easily find themselves drained and susceptible to being beaten up on themselves this week. I mean these kids play like their hair was on fire and won't be surprised if their spent.

COLORADO ST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 in road games over the last 2 seasons.

 Road favorites like Colorado State  - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are a long term good bet going 66-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado State to cover 1 unit reg selection

UNLV is off a huge upset win vs Fresno State last week, winning by a 26-16 count, as 21.5 underdogs. The Bulldogs looked completely drained after pulling off an upset of their own vs San Diego State the previous week, and Rebels took advantage of the situation.  Now in another emotional letdown scenario  I'm betting its UNLV's turn to suffer . Look for a Hawaii team that despite of struggling on offense and  losing to pretty good San Diego State  program ,actually did not look as bad as I thought they would, and will now be well prepared to make a game of this after a facing last weeks very physical defensive opponent. What I' saying is look for the Warriors very capable offense to tee off in a big way here , vs a D, that allowed Utah State to pound them for 52 points the week before last.

UNLV is 2-13 ATS  L/15 off a road win against a conference rival .

CFB road team Hawaii  - with an excellent offense - averaging 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game are 23-3 ATS L/25 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Hawaii to cover 1 unit reg selection

Ole Miss might not get a lot of respect from bettors this week, as they have now lost 5 of their L/6 overall, including a 38-37 loss to Arkansas last time out, but according to my power rankings and cross reference matchup stats, the Rebs actually matchup well against this type of opponent. Meanwhile, Kentucky is off an emotional win vs long time nemesis Tennessee last week, and could easily be in a letdown state coming into this tilt vs a hungry opponent. It must also be noted that despite of their 6 wins the Wildcats have been out  yarded by 106 ypg in their L/3 games and are a very over rated team at the moment.

KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS  L/7 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games losing SU by just under 20 ppg. OLE MISS is 10-2 ATS  L/12  in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite.  In KENTUCKY's L/24 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging  6.25  or more yards/play they have been outscored by a 43 to 22.8 average score. HC Stoops of Kentucky  is 0-7 ATS  L/7  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse .

CFB Home favorites like Kentucky - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 11-33 ATS L/25 seasons for  a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Ole Miss Rebels to cover 1 unit reg selection

Iowa State is the real deal, behind one of the better defenses in the Big 12 as they proved last week in a win vs ranked TCU by a 14-7 count as 7 point home dogs. They also proved a lot to me in that  tilt, and I'm betting they still have enough fuel in the tank to slow West Virginia down this week.  Meanwhile, W.Virginia  despite a explosive offense are a team that lacks a solid defense, and has allowed 34, 31, 35, 36, and 50 points in their L/5 games and according to my own projections Iowa State will have a similar plus offensive out put here, which gives them a great chance  for a SU upset considering how staunch their D has been.

IOWA ST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att  dating back to last season.IOWA ST is 12-3 ATS  L/15 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers .W VIRGINIA is 2-12 ATS  L/14 after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.

CFB team like West Virginia  - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 8-35 ATS L/5 seasons or a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors.

CFB road team like Iowa State  - after going under the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 51-18 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Iowa State Cyclones to cover