Alabama is third in rushing offense and fourth in rushing defense. LSU, which has played a tougher schedule so far, is sixth and seventh in those categories. Im not disputing how great a football program that Alabama has , I'm just looking at value associated with this line as compared to how both teams have looked this season, and LSUs big time home advantage from a historical viewpoint. Hey guys don't me wrong its always tough betting against BAMA, but you have to continue to grab the edges when you can and keep your head up no matter what because those edges make for long term profits! The Tides Tagovailoa looks like a once in a generation type QB in his current form, but he's yet to have to consistently take on real world competition like he will today. With hat said, Ill grab the points here with the two TD+ home dog.

LSU is 10-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.LSU is 8-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.LSU is 6-0 ATS  in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

LSU in their L/64 home games dating back 10 seasons have lost only 7 times straight up with only one loss coming by more than 10 points. 

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (LSU) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 24-3 ATS L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LSU to cover 

This is a bad scheduling spot for Miss State as they are off a big win vs Texas A&M last week, and will now be in a letdown spot with a look ahead game against Alabama in their next game. Meanwhile,  LA Tech are no pushovers, and have revenge on board for getting clobbered last year at home by the Rebels. It must be noted that MSU  has failed to cover 16 of their L/21 non-conference of 20 or more fav points while, LA Tech HC  Skip Holtz is   16-3 ATS as a road dog  when coming off an underdog situation like he faced last week at Florida Atlantic and  perfect 5-0 ATS when coming off a SU underdog victory which he achieved in that above mentioned game.LOUISIANA TECH is also 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

CFB road team (LOUISIANA TECH) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 33-9 ATS L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on LA Tech to cover 

Tennessee may not be back to their glory years just yet, but Im betting they will be primed and ready to take their frustrations out on a lower tier Charlotte program that is playing with a backup QB . The Vols won't rest players , and they won't take their foot of the pedal as they need  to continue to improve and show their loyal fans that their on their way back to prominence. Search and destroy mission on Saturdays agenda for the Volunteers. 

CFB Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (CHARLOTTE) - off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 3-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

Projected score: Tennessee  44 Charlotte 9

After being beat up on an embarrassed last week by Clemson, the Seminoles will be primed for a better showing vs another team (NC State) that was smashed by Clemson and has now  lost back-to-back games and dropped out of the Associated Press poll  .First-year Seminoles coach Willie Taggart said Monday he thought some of his players quit and that his staff needed "to find the winners" on the team. That was a punishing statement that was made in the media, and now we will see what his team is made of this week. Im betting these kids stand tall this Saturday and give a reeling NC State team a run for their money. 

Florida State is 10-0 ATS (15.8 ppg) 9-1 SU since Dec 30, 1983 coming off a loss where they allowed at least 42 points , with the lone loss coming by 7 points. FSU is also 16-2 SU off a loss of 20 or points dating back to 1983 and a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS if that team is .700 or above. 

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - excellent offensive team (440  or more YPG) against an average offensive team (330-390 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. are 5-25 ATS L/10 seasons  for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida State to cover 

The last time West Virginia played Texas star QB Will Grier left the game with a hand injury and did not make it past the first quarter.  It was bitter sweet occurrence as Texas ended up clinching bowl eligibility in the process on West Virginia's home field. Now payback is on the agenda this week for the Mountaineers .Quote:"This one is one we've been looking forward to for a while," West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen said. "It didn't quite end the way we wanted it to last year, and we haven't forgotten about that." END QUOTE. WVU has won three of the four previous meetings played in Austin, including a 24-20 win in 2016 and get the nod again. 

West Virginia is 7-2 ATS L/9 on the road in Big 12 action as TD or less dogs.

CFB Road underdogs (W VIRGINIA) - excellent offensive team (440  or more YPG) against a good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG), after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

These two teams Rice (1-8) and UTEP ( 0-8) have had dismal seasons, and both look forward to the opportunity to notch a win in this spot. Rice has been without starting QB Shawn Stankavage since Oct 19 , but have started to find a way to move the ball of late , and really didn't look to bad against far superior teams Florida International and North Texas scoring 17 points in each of those games, despite of getting squashed because of porous D, that has allowed an average of 39 ppg this season. My own projections estimate UTEP will eclipse their 18.9 ppg average offensive output here today by a full TD, and their  Swiss cheese D that allows an average of 34.2 ppg on the road to allow Rice to also score into the mid 20s, which should at least according to my estimates see this total number easily eclipsed. 

RICE is 25-12 OVER L/37  versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry with a combined average score of 61.5 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (RICE/UTEP) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 54-27 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion Tate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the OVER 

. The Wildcats  defence stood tall last week vs Oregon but  in recent meetings between these football programs  high scoring games have taken place,  with Arizona taking a 45-42 win on the road last season and Colorado scoring 49 points  in 2016 in their visit to the desert while allowing 24 points. Both went over the total as has 6 of the L/7 meetings overall.  What Im betting on this week is that Arizona's Khalil Tate and company behind a group that put 44 points on the board last week will do offensive damage vs a Colorado team that allowed Oregon State 41 points last week, and for the Buffalos to have no other option than to open things up and  respond in kind in what will be a high scoring shoot out in the  desert this Friday night. 

Note: Arizona has rushed for at least 267 yards in each of the last six meetings with Colorado. The Wildcats lead the Pac-12 with 205.33 rushing yards per game this season. Khalil Tate destroyed the Buffs last season, and I won't be surprised by another big outing as he finally looks to be on the mend. 

HC Sumlin is 13-2 OVER  in home games off a home win by 17 points or more in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average score of 82.5 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Recent wins and covers vs Syracuse, and Duke and a closely contested battle vs Notre Dame have shown me that Pittsburgh is up trending in a hurry and pose a threat to a very good  but over rated Virginia team. Pittsburgh has won and covered the last two meetings in this series, and are live dogs again,  and get my support here in this spot getting points. 

The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games and 7-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

VIRGINIA is 14-28 ATS  after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team (PITTSBURGH) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

Im betting UCF will have their hands full with a very physical Temple team, and their perfect 7-0 record could be in jeopardy. Temples two losses this season came by 10 points to BC and 7 to Buffalo U. My power rankings suggest that UCF should only be a 7 to 8 point favorite here and that we have value with Temple to cover this number.

TEMPLE is 10-1 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more  rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.TEMPLE is 13-2 ATS  in road games over the last 3 seasonsTEMPLE is 9-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home favorites (UCF) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 47-88 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Temple to cover 

Last week Western Michigan had their 6 game win streak abruptly come to an end, as a frustrated and angry Toledo team off blowing a late lead to Buffalo U the prior week came in with a full head of steam and upset the Broncos. I also believe Western Michigan was not respecting their opponents enough, and the end result was ugly. Now in redemption mode, Im betting the Broncos come out here ready to resume  their previous top tier play vs a Ohio Bobcats team that can score , but that has a lot of defensive deficiencies, despite of garnering some positive D stats vs their last two lowly opponents, Ball St and Bowling Green. I know Ohio destroyed a injury riddled Ball State last week, but the hosts are a much better group and healthier  team than Ball State and will give Ohio more then they can handle. 

I am also not worried who starts under center for Western Michigan  as   both are terrific Qbs.  Note: The Broncos have done well vs struggling secondaries as is evident by  11-2 ATS L/13 record vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 275 or more passing yards/game .

Bobcats are 0-3 ATS L/3 in the first of two consecutive road tilts. OHIO U is 2-10 ATS  after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992 and is  2-11 ATS  in road games off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals.W MICHIGAN in their L/26 games  as a home underdog have seen a average point differential of 26.8 to 24.5 favouring the Broncos.

Play on Western Michigan to cover 

The Buffalo Bulls own a balanced offence behind a future NFL QB 6'7 Tyree Jackson . The Bulls have averaged  235.0 yards passing and 176.3 on the ground. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo leads the MAC in scoring and total defense. I look for them to primed tonight to stop Miami O cold on their own home field and grab a commanding lead in the race for MAC East title. Buffalo also has the motivation of revenge on their sides, as Miami O beat them last season 24-14 at home as 3 point chalk. 

BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS  in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

The favorite has won 8 of the L/10 meetings. 

Buffalo to cover 

San Diego State is a very viable short favorite here vs a Nevada team on tired  jet lagged legs and in a letdown situation after a win at Hawaii last week. I know the Aztecs did not look very awake themselves last week in a victory vs lowly San Jose State ( 16-13) but now I expect the alarm clock will go off early and they will be ready to respond in a big way here vs a side they have dominated of late winning 7 of the L/8 meetings . Note: Nevada is 0-7 ATS L/7 vs .700 or better opposition. 

SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons

The San Diego State Aztecs are 23-0 SU L/23 vs  .500 or less conference opponents since 2014.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEVADA) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are just 23-55 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Let me say it does not matter if Sam Ehlinger plays QB this week or not, for Texas, as he is questionable with a shoulder injury suffered last week. Shane Buechele,will be a fine replacement, and the 6th ranked Longhons Im betting do significant offensive damage this week, vs a a defense that is struggling and has allowed 40 plus points in their L/2 home games. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State despite of all their misgivings are averaging 43.2 ppg in offence at home this season and  can score against the best of teams. These teams have gone over in 6 of their L/7 meetings and Im betting this one flys over as well. 

Oklahoma State is 12-0 OVER at home off a game where they allowed at least 28 points with a combined average of 87.3 ppg going on the board. No tilt saw less than 70 total points scored. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 26-8 OVER in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better ) since 1992 with the average combined score clicking in at 66.1 ppg.OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 OVER  after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 86.9 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Western Kentucky  avenging just 20.1 ppg in offence this season does not have the guns to compete with Florida International in a run and gun type affair, and will come into this game preparing to play a methodical conservative game. Add to that the Hilltoppers will be in a huge letdown  situation that could see them start slowly after blowing a late lead last week to Old Dominion, and losing thanks to some bizarre circumstances that include penalties and failed FG attempts. Meanwhile, on the flip side FINT is a Doctor Jekyll and Hyde type of  team averaging just 22.5 ppg on offence on the road this season  as compared to their overall 35.9 ppg output . The Panthers have a history of playing a more conservative type of game as visitors that has resulted in a lot of lower scoring tilts.  With that said,  you have  what I'm betting will be the makings for a low scoring sleeper. Note: FINT  has gone UNDER 10 straight times  as a road favourite with no combined score eclipsing the 55 point plateau with the average combined score clicking in a 43.8 ppg. 

FLA INTERNATIONAL is 7-0 UNDER L/7 after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.

CFB Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (W KENTUCKY) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 28-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

Tulane since they upset and  beat Memphis seem totally deflated. The Wave defence has been particularly bad,  ranking 103rd in total yards allowed with 433.1 yards per game. Meanwhile, despite of failing to notch wins, Tulsa from time to time has looked like a upper echelon side, losing by 1 points to USF, and  played Texas tough losing a by a 28-21 count. These teams just can't seem to get over the hump and both are desperate for wins, but Im betting home field advantage will be the difference maker today. Tulsa is a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS L/6 meetings here at home in this series and has big time revenge on board for ugly 62-28 loss at Tulane last season.

CFB road team vs. the money line (TULANE) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more, a struggling  team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 6-36 SU L/10 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Tulsa to cover 

The Tigers (4-3, 0-3 SEC) are the best unranked team in the nation in my humble opinion and are explosive behind the league's No. 3 passing attack with quarterback Drew Lock  the key production manufacturer  and ranks third in the conference as a  passer.Lock's passing total of 1,979 yards ranks behind only Jordan Ta'amu (2,622 yards) of Ole Miss and Alabama's Tua Tagoavailoa (2,066) among SEC's passers.Missouri is coming off a huge 65-33 win over Memphis in which Lock passed for 373 yards and four touchdowns and have momentum entering this tilt vs Kentucky. 

Meanwhile, Kentucky behind future NFL RB Snell, are a run first team, but Im betting they will not be as productive as usual, vs the Tigers  No. 35 ranked  rush defense as they hold opponents to just over 131 yards a game. Kentucky has a fine D, but Missouri can light it up against the best of defenses, while their own D can stop the run and have given up most of their yards through the air, which wont matter vs a Kentucky team that is ranked 127th in the nation in passing yards. 

KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS  after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.MISSOURI is 6-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 season.

Play on Missouri to cover 

South Florida is a explosive team that averages 35.6 ppg on offence and ranked 11th nationally enters this game undefeated on the season, and look like a viable underdog road option in this spot. I know the football media pundits are heaping  accolades  on the Houston Cougars and their 3rd ranked offence , but Im not sold on them mostly because of their horrendous D, that is ranked a lowly 117th in the nation. Houston upset S.Florida last season as 10 point road dogs, and now payback is at hand. Note: Houston has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 vs a side with conference revenge. 

S.Florida continues to win but have failed to cover two straight and have failed to cover. 4 of their L/5 mostly because of hefty lines, but it must be note that Strong is 12-1 ATS  in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992. Strong is also 10-1 ATS  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 37-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 50-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team vs. the money line (S FLORIDA) - after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 25-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

CFBA home team vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more ) after 7+ games, after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 9-27 SU L/26 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play o South Florida to cover 

Middle Tennessee State is a team that is getting to much respect here based on past season of upper echelon work, but this season, they are being out gained by FBS opposition by 85 yards a game. Meanwhile, Old Dominion finally woke up from their Virginia Tech upset handover last week to notch a upset win on the road vs Western Kentucky. Now that Old Dominion is wide awake Ill back them to being home the cash here as home dogs in this spot vs a over rated Blue raiders side living on past accolades. Note: Middle Tennessee is 0-4 L/4 as a road fav and have failed to cover 6 of their L/7 overall in that role. If the Raiders win today it wont come without Old Dominion putting up a fight. With that said take the points. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (MIDDLE TENN ST) - poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) against a terrible rushing defense (4.8 YPRor more ) after 7+ games are 4-22 SU L/5 seasons for a 85%  go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Old Dominion to cover 

Penn State has had some ups and downs this season, but this still a very strong team, with a long standing winning football program. Recently Penn State has been dominant in situations like this as they are  11-0 /SU ATS covering by more than 18.82 ppg as a favorite coming off a win where they failed to cover (33-28 uglifest vs Indiana last week) with the smallest margin of victory coming by 10 points and the average margin score differential clicking in at Penn State 41.7 Opp 6.7 ppg. Nine of those 11 games saw their opposition score 7 or less points in a game.  The L/4 games dating back to the 2017 season, have seen Penn State outscore their opposition 218-23. Iowa has a fine team, and rank high in my power rankings, but the Nittany Lions have proven ferocious under the above mentioned perimeters, and are extremely motivated to prove their detractors wrong behind the arm and legs  QB star McSorley who completed 42 of 66 passes for 524 yards with three touchdowns and an interception and has added 31 carries for 101 yards and another score against Iowa in his career. In 2016 when Iowa visited Penn State the huge beatdown took place by a 41-14 count. Can it happen again, maybe maybe not, but key here is we get the cover.  By the way yes Iowa has won 3 straight, conference games in impressive fashion, but Maryland , Minnesota, Indiana are hardly marquee wins so lets not get carried away with the Hawkeyes potential just yet. 

PENN ST is 16-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and is 8-0 ATS  off a road win over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Penn State to cover 

Both these teams Maryland and Illinois give up lots of yards on the ground and both have proven they can run the ball. Both will use their success on the ground to take advantage of each sides weaknesses. Look for this tilt to be a slow guiding affair with taking  the points ending up being golden.Illinois’ rushing attack has 200-plus yards in six of seven games and Im betting MJ Rivers who is expected to start to get more playing time starting this week  give the Illini a better passing attack which will make them competitive despite of their nasty defence. 

CFB  team (ILLINOIS) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by 175 or more total yds 2 consecutive games are 26-6 ATS L/27 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB home team SU (MARYLAND) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8  or more YPR) after 7+ games, after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 9-27 SU L/27 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate.

Play on Illinois to cover 

The Jayhawks have not had a to success over the last few years, but they are playing better this season and are by far more competitive despite of their negative won loss record.The Jayhawks are 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven contests as double-digit home dogs and look like viable picks here today vs a TCU team that struggles to score and is in an emotional letdown state after being manhandled in a DD loss to Oklahoma last week.. Also with anew offensive cooridnator and guaranteed starter at QB in Peyton Bender I look for the Jayhawks to put some points up on the board and actually cover this game.TCU is 4-13 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.TCU is 7-18 ATS  as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

CFB A home team vs. the money line (KANSAS) - off 3 straight losses against conference rivals, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 42-20 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas to cover 

CONNECTICUT is 1-10 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB  home team (CONNECTICUT) - good rushing team - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 4-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Umass to cover 

Army is the real deal, behind top tier HC Monken and  even with starting QB Kelvin Hopkins out last week with an injury they took out a pretty good Miami O side 31-30 in OT. Now against another MAC team E.Michigan, I like their chances in what the lines makers expect will be a close game even if Hopkins is out again, as Sophomore Cam Thomas is more than able to guide this over powering West Point  running attack . It must be noted that the  Black Knights own the nation’s 2nd ranked ground attack averaging (318 YPG) and have a big time edge vs the Eagles’  key weakness which is their 111th ranked rush defense (216 YPG) .

ARMY is 6-0 ATS in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

CFB home team (E MICHIGAN) - after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 3-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB favorites (ARMY) - team outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games are 28-5 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Army to cover 

Since their loss to North Texas this rebuilding Arkansas football program has slowly become more competitive. This group is very closely knit, and the entire state of Arkansas is behind them here this week, in what is a winnable game, especially with QB Ty Storey expected back under centre. The Razorbacks have covered 4 straight for their backers, and once again look like a solid proposition here on their own field to cash a ticket for their supporters vs a Vanderbilt team that is last in the nation in red zone conversion rate. Vanderbilt is also s ugly 2-16 ATS L/18 in SEC road games.

Mason is 0-7 ATS  vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return as the coach of VANDERBILT. 

Play on Arkansas to cover

 Louisville enters this game struggling mightily averaging just  20.4 points per game, while allowing 33.4 per game on defense and allowing opposition offences to roll over them and gain an average 416.1 yards of total per game.  I know Wake Forest is not much better defensively, but they can score more consistently and that will be the difference maker this eek, in a game that the Daemon Deacons have the ability to win straight up. 

LOUISVILLE is 0-6 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more  rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.

WAKE FOREST is 22-9 ATS in road games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISVILLE) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are just 5-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Utes, enter this game on fire as they are on a 3-0  run and scoring 40 or more points in each of those contests. I don't  know where this offensive explosion has come from, but I'm betting after the emotion involved in putting the pedal to the metal in 4 straight games starting with Washington State, which was their only loss, will now see them in a  emotional letdown down spot that could easily mute their output and attack, especially after mounting that massive comeback vs uSC last week. I know Chip Kelleys UCLA may not inspire bettors, but they are getting better, and have won two straight games and have the talent base to make  a game of this. 

UCLA is 14-3 ATS L/17 at home as a 6 point dog or more.  

CFB Road favorites (UTAH) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 3-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a 86%  go against conversion rate.

Play on UCLA to cover 

This tilt between Minnesota and Indiana will settle which  one of these teams will get a lower tier Bowl invite. Both these teams enter this game expected to play with back up QBs. But I like PJ Fleck at home, and dislike Indiana's consistent inability to find any kind of groove since starting their season 3-0. They did play Penn State tough last week, losing by just 5 points and actually out gaining the Lions, but it must be noted that INDIANA is 8-38 ATS  after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game .

Also the Hoosiers inconsistent attack has even had difficulties vs teams with porous defences . Note:INDIANA is 0-8 ATS  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. 

  INDIANA is 2-9 ATS  when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS L/7 meetings overall. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

Mimai Fl despite of their talent just can't seem to get over the hump. Last season they failed down the stretch and now in their last game lost to Virginia 16-13 , behind a duo of QBs that just don't have a lot of flow right now, and its rubbing off on the team as a whole. I don't know if its because of the Canes tough training/practices or what it is , but this team looks pooched for the 2nd straight season. As a matter of fact a disturbing trend seems to be telling a repeat story, as Richt is 2-9 ATS L/11  in October games as the coach of MIAMI. 

Richt is  also 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of MIAMI and is 8-21 ATS  after scoring 14 points or less last game in all games he has coached since 1992 

Meanwhile,BOSTON COLLEGE is 9-1 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and is 7-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons and is 6-0 ATS in October games over the last 2 seasons.

Im betting Boston College has a better chance to win  then the public has decided, as the opening line was BC -1, and is now at 3.5. Im betting the lines makers were right in their opening assessments and if Im wrong, Im still betting the Eagles make a game of this  and get us a cover. 

Play on Boston College to cover 

Florida Atlantic enters this game as a wobbly home favorite, vs a LA Tech team that could easily upset them SU here tonight. Florida Atlantics HC Lane Kiffin has been making some questionable decisions this season, that have not paid dividends, and the team as a whole just don't look cohesive especially on defence and have been outscored 90-35 in the fourth quarter this season . Yes, the Owls do have a top tier QB in Chris Robison but he was hobbled last game, and if he plays will be less than 100% this week and on defence are still trying to mask the fact they are playing without their all time leading tackler, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, who is injured. Florida Atlantic smashed Louisiana Tech last season the road by a , 48-23 count and now big time ugly revenge is on board. 

FLA ATLANTIC is 2-12 ATS  in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.Holtz is 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992.LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS  in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Holtz is a perfect 6-0 ATS as road dog in his career vs a sub .500 opponent like FAU. 

CFBroad team vs. the money line (LOUISIANA TECH) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (34 PPG or more), after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 37-6 L/27 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on LA Tech to cover 

These two teams are vying for first place in the Sunbelt eastern division. Appalachian State has  for a long time had a respected football program, and right now their on the fast track for a decent bowl invitation. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern despite of not getting the same accolades is no pushover and just like their opponents only have one loss on the season.  Georgia Southern lost to power house Alabama, and Appalachian State to Penn State in OT. 

What Im betting happens tonight, is that Georgia Southern will use their No. 5 overall  ground game that cranks out 276 RYPG average to hammer away all night on App States defense , while the absence of  the Mountaineers top tier  RB Jason Moore will be felt as they won't be able to respond with the same type of option attack. I don't know if Georgia Southern can come out of this with a win, but they will make a game of it here on their own home turf. Thus making getting points golden opportunity to cash a ticket.Lunsford is a perfect  6-0 ATS in games played on a grass field as the coach of GA SOUTHERN. 

Play on Georgia Southern to cover 

Both these teams are in 3rd place in their MAC divisions, but Ohio according to my rankings is the much better team, especially here on their own home field where they have averaged 48.3 ppg behind an explosive offense. Meanwhile, Ball State is scoring an average of just 16.7 ppg on the road and just don't have the guns to compete here 9 out of 10 times. With that said,  those look like viable odds for me to sink my teeth into . Also Ball State D is going down hill fast as they have allowed seasons highs in yards allowed in 4 of their L/5 overall, not a good omen coming in against this type of opponent.Neu is 0-6 ATS  after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games as the coach of BALL ST ( Ball State 15.7 Opp 41.7) I know the line looks like a hook attempt here by the lines makers, but their value right uo and into the 13.5 point range according to my projections so I feel confident of laying odd numbered lumber here. 

Play on Ohio to cover 

UCLA finally got a win last week, after starting their season at 0-5. They beat what looked to be a sleepy California Bears team who was overlooking them by a a 37-7 count. Now they are magically being made more than TD favorite at home , in part because the hobbling and limping Khalil Tate is out with an ankle injury .  Which in my opinion contrary to mainstream thought is actually a good thing. Better to have a 100% healthy 2nd string QB ( Rodriguez) than a banged up pivot who depends on his mobility to to look as good as he does.Rodriguez, the son of former Arizona head coach Rich Rodriguez, completed 20 of 38 passes for 226 yards coming off the bench vs Utah last week and a completed touchdown and should be even more fluent this week.

It must be noted that UCLA is just 1-8 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons so they are from viable chalk bets . UCLA is also just   2-10 ATS  in games when coming off a victory over the last three years and are also a ugly  0-12 ATS when coming off a double-digit win the last four seasons. UCLA is 3-13 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) since 1992. These are some nasty numbers, and Im still not sold on Chip Kelleys Bruins quite yet, and feel its to soon to be laying TD or more chalk in a conference game vs a team that matches up well against them according to my power rankings. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

Oregon is coming off a huge 30-27 OT win vs Washington last week, and now in a away game will be in a huge emotional letdown situation against a Washington State team that has the guns to take them out here at home. Note: Washington State is explosive passing team with its "Air Raid" offense under Leach. East Carolina graduate transfer Gardner Minshew is the top passer in the Pac-12 (averaging 403.7 yards a game) while completing 68.7 percent of his passes (215 of 313) with 19 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Strap on you jock straps fellas, this ride is going to get bumpy for the incoming Ducks. Cougars have won 10 straight at home dating back to last season, and have covered 8 straight in this series, and Im betting both streaks stay intact after the final whistle blows here tonight. 

Play on the Washington State Cougars 

 Old Dominion has done one thing right this season, and that is beat Virginia Tech. Other than that this team is completely inept and look like they are still dealing with the massive emotional hangover of that bizarre win. They put everything they had into that game, and now theirs nothing left in the tank. The Monarchs have lost two straight by DDs and took it on the chin last week,   42-20 vs Marshall, and gave up a pile of yards which does not set up well for them coming into this game as they are  0-10 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1999. 

OLD DOMINION is 2-10 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 

Huge letdown situation for the LSU tigers after upsetting the Georgia Bulldogs last week , which puts them at a disadvantage vs a Mississippi State that can light the board in a hurry. Add to that the Tigers have Sabans Alabama on board for next week, and you can see taking points here with a under appreciated opponent is a viable wagering opportunity. 

Miss State is 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings, and have a good read on HC Oregeron as is evident by last seasons 37-7 beatdown of this same LSU program.

LSU is 3-13 ATS in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.

CFB road team (MISSISSIPPI ST) - off a home win against a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 31-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miss State to cover 

These two teams Im betting will embark on a all out war this week that favours the dog getting a boatload full of points .Don't get me wrong Clemson is a great team and Death Valley is a nasty place to visit if your an opposing football program, but NC State is highly under rated and more than capable of actually pulling off the upset this week. The last two meetings in this series were won by the Tigers by 7 point counts and another one score game is a high probability event that makes this a  viable wager in this spot. Both these teams are well rested off a bye week, but in the recent past that has not been a recipe for success from a spread perspective for the Tigers as they have failed to cover 4 straight times. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack are 19-2 ATS off a bye,  vs conference foes and have covered 15 of 16 when made underdogs.

NC State has covered 9 straight ATS as 2 TD or more dogs. NC  State is also 12-2 ATS as DD underdogs coming off a SU win.  

NC STATE is 6-0 ATS  after a 2 game home stand over the last 3 seasons.

CLEMSON has failed to cover 19 of their L/27  after 6 or more consecutive straight up wins and 13-29 ATS L/42 after 3 more straight conference wins.

CFBroad team (NC STATE) - excellent offensive team (6.2 YPP or more) against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 YPP or less ), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 35-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on NC State to cover 

 There is no doubt that Umass can put points on the board in bunches as is evident by 49, 42, 42, explosions in their L/3 games. They won one of those games, and lost the other two vs teams that are also explosive offensively. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina despite improvement over last season, just don't have the guns to hang with this type of offence, and also own a inconsistent  defence that has allowed 42 points in back to back games.Look for Umass to bomb away on Coastal Carolina and for the visitors to punch back, but Im betting the bigger and more frequent shots will come from UMass. Knockout in the 4th quarter. 

CFB  home team vs. the money line (MASSACHUSETTS) - average team (+/- 0.6 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP), after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 25-1 L/10 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors SU with the average margin of victory differential coming by 17.9 ppg.

UMass to cover 

Wake Forest after an embarrassing loss to Clemson before their bye week, allowed 63 points and scored just 3 points in a ugly loss. Since that game a rallying call to tighten up their D, has been key to any conversations involving the Deacons, and today I expect they enter this tilt with an conservative mindset. Meanwhile,Florida State is always methodical in their approach to games, and will make sure this game is played on their terms. Look for both teams to push the ball a lot on the ground today via their rush games, and for the clock to get milked like a Hershey cow.Only one of Seminoles games has eclipsed this total this season, and Im betting the combined score will not breach this Total. Note: Wake Forest has not had a scoring TD since 2006 here in the land of the Seminoles.

FSU Taggart is 18-7 UNDER vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average score in those tilts ringing in at 52.5 ppg.

FLORIDA ST L/11 against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 44 ppg go on the board. WAKE FOREST L/22  in road games after a bye week have seen a combined average of 54.4 ppg go on the board.

CFB Road teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (WAKE FOREST) - with a poor defense - allowing 400 or more total yards/game, after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 64-28 UNDER  L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Ohio has played a tough schedule, with hard luck losses to two very good football teams Cincinnati U and N.Illinois last week. On both occasions they blew late leads, and if it were not for those heart breaking defeats they would be 5-1 on the season, with Virginia being the only team to surprisingly manhandle them 45-31. HC Solich is a solid coach and he now has the opportunity to get his troops back in a winning frame of mind .With that said, look for this explosive Bobcats group on their own home field to now take out their frustrations on a very over matched in disarray Bowling Green team that fired their coach this week.  

Note: Bowling Green is allowing  47.76 ppg overall this season and a even uglier 57.7 ppg on the road. 

BOWLING GREEN is 1-9 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 over the last 3 seasons. BG 21.9  Opponent 51.7 for a +28.8 point differential. 

Play on Ohio to cover 

Virginia knocked off Miami U in a big upset last week, and after that the Cavs and their fans rushed the field like they had won a national championship. Thats what I call irrational exuberance at its best, and now the hungover Cavs will have problems facing a team that I have rated above them my power rankings . You have to remember this is the same Virginia team that crapped the bed earlier this season vs  struggling Indiana  football program and lost 20-16, so its not like their national championship contenders or anything. Meanwhile,Duke rebounded from its first loss of the season against Virginia Tech by surgically  dismantling the Yellow Jackets  option offense in a impressive looking 28-14 conference road victory. Im becoming a believer in the Duke football program that has beaten Army, Northwestern, Baylor this season and Im saying they have to be respected today on a TD or less line at home.

VIRGINIA has failed to cover 18 of their L/24 after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games.

CFBA road team (VIRGINIA) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 5-27 ATS. for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (VIRGINIA) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more against opponent off a road win are 2-44 SU with the average score differential clicking in at 21.4 ppg. 

Play on Duke to cover 

Before I get started Id like to say I acknowledge that Michigan has the better all round team in todays confrontation with Michigan State. But being a superior side does not guarantee a cover or even a win on any given Saturday, especially in a game between to long time rivals. Michigan State has also shown themselves golden  under D Antonio  tenure  going 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU vs Harbaugh and the Wolverines and overall have cashed 10 straight in this series including 8 victories SU. Today I expect the Spartans No.1 ranked rush D, to be the difference maker as Wolverines QB Patterson who will be made one dimensional, which could easily see him make mistakes vs a front 7 that can definitely turn up the heat when motivated. 

Play on Michigan State to cover 

 Northwestern in their last  three games away from home having to lay  nine points  or more to Big Ten opposition all-time,   have scored 59, 45, and 42 points respectively and I'm expecting another  high output today vs a Rutgers defense that has allowed two opponents to breach the 50 point plateau this season. Meanwhile, Im betting that Rutgers on their own home field are good for a couple of scores in a game I have pegged to go OVER the total.

NORTHWESTERN is 7-0 OVER in road games over the last 2 seasons with a combined 54.7 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (NORTHWESTERN) - terrible rushing team - averaging 2.75 or less rushing yards/carry, after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game are 28-5 OVER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Boise is not as powerful as I expected them to be this season, and have been slightly disappointing to some degree, especially at home last time out losing to a banged up San Diego State squad 19-13. Laying this much lumber at home does not suit their current form and from a recent trends set does not favour them to cover in this spot, as the blue carpet hosts are just 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 lined home games and an equally dismal 4-18 ATS  in conference games as 21 or more point chalk. Meanwhile, Colorado State is picking up the pace of late after a slow start and have won and covered two straight as well winning the stats battle. The Rams have covered 6 of their L/7 on the road as 14 or more points and will be ready to avenge a 59-52 shootout loss at home last year the Blue Broncos.

COLORADO ST is 24-9 ATS L/33 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.

Play on the Colorado State Rams to cover 

Im sure Wyoming does not inspire a lot of betting backers, because of their sub par record and crappy offence. But one thing this team can do is eat up clock and slow their games down to a crawl via a slow progressive run game, and a defence that is highly under rated.  Note: WYOMING is 13-4 ATS L/17  as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points . I know Fresno State looked powerful this season with their only loss coming against Minnesota, but it must be noted that Wyoming owns a 8-0 ATS record as road underdogs of 23 or less points  vs opp coming off consecutive victories and are viable investment options in this spot.  With that said, Im betting Fresno State is getting to much respect here for beating a struggling UCLA side and  a defensively deficient Toledo team travelling from east to west , and that Wyoming actually maybe more of headache for them then what the home side might expect. 

CFB team (WYOMING) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 35-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (FRESNO ST) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 14-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Wyoming to cover 

Ole Miss are weak 7 point favs here according to my calculations. Overall this Ole Miss football program have been poor road favs failing to cover 24 of their L/30 in that role. I know they put 70 points up on UL Monroe last week, but their will be a reversion backwards in their output here, and with their defence as atrocious as it is, I expect a Arkansas offence that put 31 point on the board vs Alabama last week do a lot of damage here today in what could easily be a straight up win. t

Arkansas is  10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS in this series with Ol Miss of late , and are 6-1 ATS l at home and 6-1 ATS under dogs. the two most recent meetings in this series were decided by 4 and 1 point respectively. 

ARKANSAS is 21-8 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. ARKANSAS is 25-12 ATS off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival since 1992

OLE MISS is 0-6 ATS  off a home win by 17 points or more over the last 2 seasonsOLE MISS is 0-6 ATS  after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Middle Tennessee State have just won 2 straight as underdogs  vs Marshall and Florida Atlantic and being under rated again, and a good bet to cover and even win outright here today vs a Florida International  side they matchup well against.Meanwhile,  Florida International is being over rated because of big offensive explosions against nasty D, Ark Pine Bluff and Umass and despite of looking offensively cohesive do not matchup well vs a physical  Middle Tenn State side that has shown dominance in this series winning 5 of the L/6 meetings. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIDDLE TENN ST) - off a double digit road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover 

A so called third string QB Purdy,  marched into Stillwater to face a pretty good  Okahoma State  football program last week and helped his team pull off a SU win as DD underdogs. This is just not any 3rd string QB, but one that threw for 7700 yards in his last couple of campaigns playing Texas High school ball and who was pursed by a lot of big name teams. After that big win I doubt very much Iowa State will be a in a letdown situation vs what is now one of favorites to win the Big 12 championship, especially here at home. This place will be rocking this week and so will Iowa States offence.

It must  also be noted that HC Matt Campbell playing as an underdog against opp like the Mountaineers coming off a SUATS victory is  11-1 ATS in conference games including a perfect 5-0 ATS at home.

IOWA ST is 11-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. IOWA ST is 9-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. IOWA ST is 8-0 ATS after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.Campbell is 11-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse as the coach of IOWA ST.

W VIRGINIA is 0-7 ATS  after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Iowa State to cover 

Washington (no7) is highly ranked, but Im not a true believer in them because of their lack offence as was evident last week in. lazy 7 point win vs a bad UCLA side. This week here on the road against the Ducks I won't be surprised if they are exposed by a under rated Oregon team that is well rested and off a bye and  will be primed to pull off a upset. Note: Oregon is 6-0 ATS L/6 with rest)

The Ducks are 113-23 SU L/21 seasons at home.

OREGON is 29-9 ATS  after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half since 1992.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OREGON) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 36-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Oregon to cover 

This game features an explosive offensive team Ohio against a staunch physical defensive team with Northern Illinois. HC Solich is 9-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5  or less yards/play as the coach of OHIO U. Both these teams are undefeated in MAC play so expect this to be hard fought and closely contested with getting  points Im betting being golden.

Ohio has covered their L/4 trips to N.Illinois and won 3 of those game SU. 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 47-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ohio to cover 

This version of Army is for real and a dangerous opponent as top tier teams like Buffalo U and Oklahoma  and Navy have already learned this season. A lot of old negative numbers showing Army as bad bets as road favs are now out dated as compared to the group HC Monk has assembled here at West Point this season.  I know San Jose State has played decently of late, at least from a competitive stand point, but Im betting their not built to handle Armys triple option attack and that they will get literally run over here today in a big way. San Jose State has given up a whopping 165 ypg on the ground this season. Im not a a long term proponent of constantly laying DD on the road, but some situations warrant such a wager and this is one of them. 

CFB Road favorites (ARMY) - after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 23-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined point differential coming by 28 ppg.

CFBA home team vs. the money line (SAN JOSE ST) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games are 3-28 SU L/10 seasons with the average point differential coming in at just under 3 TDS/PA a game (20.9).

Play on Army to cover 

 Zips HC Terry Bowden has already seen his under rated team upset Northwestern this season  and then played Iowa State tough in as visitors losing 26-13 but covering as 19.5 point dogs and despite of some down efforts almost always seem on the edge of being better then advertised. I know they lost last week to Miami O in ugly fashion, but in the past they have shown an ability to bounce back  going 6-1 ATS as dogs when coming off a SUATS loss.Bowden is 15-6 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of AKRON.

Meanwhile, Buffalo  at 5-1 behind future NFL draft pick 6’7” QB Tyree Jackson (ranked 8th in the nation in TD passes) have looked strong this season in MAC play, but has some alarming numbers attached to their  stats tags when it comes to Red Zone Offense efficiency rankings –    Bulls are  ranked second to last which is interesting considering their offensive output. Meanwhile, the Zips are the leaders in red zone efficiency. With that said, from a matchup perspective, the Zips are viable underdogs in this matchup on this DD line. 

AKRON is 6-0 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.Bowden is 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games as the coach of AKRON.

Play on Akron to cover 

Iowa enters this game as being fairly highly rated in my power rankings within the Big 10 and gets the nod here as short road favorites vs a very inconsistent Indiana side  that is  just 2-10 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile,  IOWA is 19-6 ATS L/25 opportunities as a road favorite of 7 points or less . Iowa has owned this series of late with a record of 6-1 SU, and add to that  are also 7-0 ATS as conference road favorites of 15 or less points. Everything points to Iowa coming out of this with a win and cover. 

Iowa is 13-0-1 ATS L/14 as a road favorite when they rushed for at least 50 yards covering by more than 2 TDs a game on average. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANA) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after having won 4 out of their last 5 games are just 5-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa to cover 

My projections estimate 55 or more points will go on the board this week, thus giving us value on this Totals number. This may not seem a lot of room for the average bettor but it is important to understand that from a long term perspective advantage betting is your best way to consistently beat the books over the long haul. 

INDIANA is 16-5 OVER in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992 with a combined average 56.2 ppg going on the score board.INDIANA in its L/11 tilts against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 54.2 ppg get scored. 

Indiana is 11-0-1 OU off a game as a road dog that went over the total by more than seven points with a combined average of 73.5 ppg scored which was the case vs Ohio State last week. 

 Iowa in their L/25 road games as favorite of 7 points or less have seen a combined average of 54.8 ppg scored.INDIANA is 41-17 OVER L/57 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 point with a combined average of 58.2 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

The Utes played a heck game vs Stanford last week and pulled off the upset as underdogs, but will now be in a huge letdown situation vs a Arizona team with a clutch QB at the helm Khalil Tate. With USC on board for Utah they may not have their heads completely into this game giving us room for a under appreciated Arizona team that has won 3 of their L/4 to get the cover  vs a side that has failed to cover 7 of their L/10 as 7 point chalk or more.

CFB Road underdogs (ARIZONA) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) are 119-64 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Arizona to cover 

Georgia Southern new HC Chad Lunsford,  has successfully returned this football program to a power run game that generates a lot of yards and points behind a ground game averaging 275 RYPG (No. 6 in the nation) averaging more than 30 points per game. They had one low output of 7 points against Clemson on the road, which can be excused. Last time out they scored 48 points as they are looking more cohesive with their attack as the season progresses. Meanwhile, Texas State has allowed 2 of their L/3 opponents to to light them up for 40+ points, and showed extreme weakness stopping their opponents ground attack allowing 327 rush yards last week vs UL  Lafayette. Im betting Georgia Southern attacks this perceived weakness with what they do best and for Texas State to have more problems vs this visiting colossal ground game, and I project the Eagles scoring in the mid to high 30s at least, with Texas State slightly improved offence projected to score 14-19 point range which coincides with the ats line. If my projected calculations are correct , which I'm betting they are, we have a viable opportunity here to cash an OVER ticket. 

GA SOUTHERN in their L/29 games when they score 28 or more points since 1992 have seen a combined average score of 67 ppg go on the scoreboard .Texas  st  L/30 off a loss against a conference rival have seen a combined average of 53.4 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER

Appalachian States offence is rolling with their lowest output (35 pts) coming against Penn State . Right now the Mountaineers look to be the class of the Sunbelt and have proven they can hang with teams like the Nittany Lions, and laying less than DDs with them looks like a steal . It's  never easy laying lumber with a road team in any sport and you have to do your due diligence which I have. This group of Mountaineers looks special indeed and as long as they stay motivated  Im betting Arkansas State does not have the needed fire power to cover this number vs a behemoth opponent. Appalachian State is also well rested which is a good omen here for us cashing a ticket, as they are 6-0 ATS after a bye week over the last 3 seasons. App State 39.5 Opponent 12.7

From a College Football wagering perspective we also have value according to current trends as listed below. 

CFB home team (ARKANSAS ST) - after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 3-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road favorites (APPALACHIAN ST) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Appalachian State to cover 

Wyoming is not as bad as their record would indicate and have the type of D, that can slow down the potent offensive attack of the Warriors. The Cowboys have held two opponents to season low offensive outputs and are under rated here on this trip to Hawaii to play a team that defensively challenged and  is looking tired after putting up some serious flyer reward points this season. 

HAWAII is 0-10 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons which was the case vs San Jose State last week.

HAWAII is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Wyoming is 7-1 L/8 trips to paradise island.

WYOMING is 6-0 ATS  in October games over the last 3 seasons. 

The Hawaii  Rainbow Warrriors football program have been lousy favs in the past as is evident by their 3-18 ATS in their last 21 games as chalk, including 0-11 ATS the last eleven overall. 

CFBome teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HAWAII) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 21-49 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wyoming to cover 

 Notre Dame is not a true 7 point favorite here on the road vs a well coached VTech team. Hey I respect how good the Irish have looked so far this season, but you have to respect  the Hokies as dogs here on their own home field.  Yes, Tech lost to Old Dominion a couple of weeks ago in perplexing fashion  but they did bounce back last week against a good Duke team in a 31-14 victory as underdogs. Backup QB Ryan Willis,  who was inserted after starting QB Jackson went down, was 17-for-26 for 332 yards with 3 TDs and 0 interceptions and must also be respected to keep his team moving forward this week.  Hokies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14  as a home dog.  Virginia Tech is 48-3 SU in its last 51 home tilts against non-conference opposition with only one defeat coming  by more than a touchdown. Lane Stadium will be rocking, so if I were Notre Dame I wouldn't come a knocking.

 VIRGINIA TECH is 14-4 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992.

CFB Road favorites (NOTRE DAME) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 14-44 L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Virginia Tech to cover 

After playing Alabama lat week this game  for UL Lafayette vs a struggling Texas State team will seem like a walk in the park. Another loss they suffered was to Miss State and a underrated Coastal Carolina and they must not be underestimated in their ability vs a much less talented group at like the Bobcats that are suppose to start a  freshman QB this week behind a inconsistent offensive line. The home team has not played anywhere near  the competition UL Lafayette has played and Im betting that will become evident here this Saturday. 

UL Lafayette is 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 meetings in this series, with the last two showing 24-7 and 27-3 wins home and away.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA LAFAYETTE) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference game are 43-16 ATS L/10 season for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UL Lafayette to cover 

A lot of pundits keep on betting on Kentucky not being the real deal. But after watching them a lot closer of late Im betting they are and won't go out here today without a fight vs Jimbo Fisher and company. The key to their ability to cover here will hinge on a defense that is  ranked 11th in the nation, allowing just 13 points and 288 yards per game. Thats not good news for Texas A&M QB Mond who struggled in a 24-17 win over Arkansas last week, going 17 of 26 for 201 yards. He threw two interceptions for the second straight game and is downgraded on my QB power rankings list.

KENTUCKY is 6-0 ATS  after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Kentucky Wildcats to cover 

HC Mullen’s took out the Miss State Bulldogs last week and are now an impressive improved 3-0 SUATS and have won the stats battle in those 3 games since losing to a strong undefeated Kentucky football program in Week Two. I know that LSU is perfect on the season, and playing really good football, but Mullens is a coach that knows how to deal with teams like the Tigers as he was 4-0 ATS vs LSU when he coached Miss State. Last season these teams took part in a 17-16 sleepers the SWAMP and Im betting on another close game today. Oregon has not done well in his career vs.750 SEC opposition like the Gators , garnering a ugly 2-13 SU in that role.

Play on Florida to cover

Wow what a crazy situation Clemson finds itself in. QB Kelly Bryant announced he was leaving the team after HC Dabo Swinney decided to start Trevor Lawrence against Syracuse. However, Lawrence I'm sure much to the delight of Bryant and family. was forced out of the Orange game with an injury and backup Chase Brice,  took over. Thats never good for team morale, but their overall talent got them through that game vs Syracuse , but just barely barely 27-23. That game was at home, but here on the road where the Tigers are 0-9 ATS L/10 as 18 point or more favs Clemson is in trouble. Wake is seeking some payback vs Clemson losing 28-14 last season. Wake is a money making 9-0 ATS  L/9with ACC revenge and are 6-0 ATS skein as double-digit home dogs.

CLEMSON is 13-26 ATS  after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. 

Clemson is 0-12 ATS  as a road favorite coming off a game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

CFB Road favorites (CLEMSON) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 13-39 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Wake Forest to cover 

Iowa State has not done a lot of scoring this season, but against this kind of team they will have to open, up as Im expecting the Cowboys to really do some damage today against a decent defence. Oklahoma State has already proven they can score against the best of defences, putting 44 points up against Boise State. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State's D, is not of the grade 1 variety,  and I look for Iowa State to do enough damage to get this game into over territory in a score similar to the 37-27 (64 pts) loss they suffered to Oklahoma back on Sept 15.

OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 OVER  in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 81.8 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA ST is 6-0 OVER in home games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 76.9 ppg scored.

OKLAHOMA ST is 33-8 OVER  in home games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992 2ith a combined average of 72.6 ppg scored.

Oklahoma State is 13-0-1 OVER at home coming off a game where they gained at least 24 first downs.

Play OVER 

These teams took part in a 17-16 snoozefest last season with the Tigers winning , and Im expecting another low scoring sleeper this time round in the swamp. The year before that the Florida won 16-10. DEFENCE, DEFENCE and more DEFENCE.

LSU is 12-1 UNDER after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40 ppg scored. FLORIDA is 9-1 UNDER after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 33.1 ppg scored.


LSU is 0-10 UNDER off a win as a home favorite of more than a TD where they allowed less than 21 points.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (FLORIDA) - after allowing 14 points or less last game against opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 45-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

 Texas is the only Big 12 Conference team that holds an all-time series lead against the Sooners (61-46-5). The last four meetings  in this series have been decided by a touchdown or less,  with the  Horns taking the advantage via a  a 5-0 ATS series make in the  last five meetings. Im betting on more of the same tough close action here again and for the home team to get us the cover behind a solid D, and capable offense. 

TEXAS is 7-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.TEXAS is 10-2 ATS vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. 

Texas head coach Tom Herman is  11-1 ATS as an underdog, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS with a above .500 record.

Play on Texas to cover 

Alabama has accumulated much of its big numbers vs patsies this season, with the one decent team they played being Texas A&M and that game was alot closer than the lines makers expected. I know Arkansas in their current form may not inspire bettors but this is still a proud program that despite of going through growing pains is capable of covering here at home in front of their own alumni. The promise their showing comes via a Defence, that has allowed their last 3 opponents seasons low offensive outputs including last weeks 24-17 loss vs TexasA&M covering as 19 point dogs.  It must also be noted that only 3 times since 1977 spanning 274 games have the Hogs lost by more than 36  points. Don't get me wrong the Tide are a behemoth opponent and more than capable of blasting a team like Arkansas, but Im betting the Razorbacks come out here and play this game like a national championship. 

ARKANSAS is 15-4 ATS L/19 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.ARKANSAS is 20-8 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.

CFB Underdogs of 31.5 or more points (ARKANSAS) - with 17 or more total starters returning are 52-22 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Eastern Michigans football program is one of the most under rated college football programs in the nation. They can't seem to get over the hump when its comes to notching big wins, and are off a triple OT loss last time out vsN.Illinois,  but what they have consistently done is be very competitive opponents thanks to a gruelling hardcore brand of physical football. Today against Western Michigan Im betting on a very closely contested battle that favours the visitors to cover or pull off the SU upset. 

E MICHIGAN is 9-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons and are 11-1 ATS L/12 as road underdogs in tis series vs Western Michigan.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

I waited on this Total to make a move downward and it did, and now Im suggesting we take an over stance, as both teams boast to strong QBs who can air it out in a big way. I know these two teams find themselves in the bottom 15 of the FBS in first downs gained on offense but this trend Im betting irons itself out in a hurry, most probably starting tonight. Both sides have had problems running the ball, and I expect both to look downfield quite a bit tonight and a game I have pegged to go over the total .

Both are off big wins , with Middle Tennessee State taking out Flordia Atlantic25-24 and Marshall defeating Western Kentucky 20-17 . Both will now be primed to keep their engines revving and a lot of energy should be on tonights agenda.

Note: Middle Tennesses offensive road numbers and overall offensive averages have been tainted by playing super power Georgia and a decent SEC side Vanderbilt. In their game against lower tier Tenn Martin they put 61 points on the board. 

Holliday is 6-0 OVER  after a win by 3 or less points as the coach of MARSHALL with a combined average of 84 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Georgia State pulled off the upset last week vs UL Monroe as 8 point home dogs, but nothing before that game suggested that this side has the cannolis to hang with an explosive Troy State team this week, as is indicated by having gone  0-3 SUATS while  their defence was gutted for  34, 59 and 41 points respectively.  With that said, I now expect a reversion to the norm for Georgia State against a behemoth opponent that will be wide awake coming into this tilt. 

TROY is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons winning by more than 19.7 ppg. 

Play on Troy to cover 

Oregon is in a huge letdown situation after blowing a big lead vs Stanford last week and losing 38-31. This program despite of the accolades it is getting this season, by the pundits still is a long way off from a national contender, and might even be over rated here in the PAC12. Now still feeling the effects of last weeks horrifying loss will now play with these kids heads and Im betting they won't perform optimally against a tough and physical California D. Note: The Duckies are  0-13-1 ATS  away in Conference action when not taking more than 4 points, which is the case here tonight  vs a revenge minded Bears team that got beaten up in Eugene last season.Cal is   5-0-1 ATS at home under head coach Justin Wilcox.

OREGON is 0-6 ATS  in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons.OREGON is 1-8 ATS  in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.HC Cristobal is 4-14 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached.

Play on California to cover 

USC are 0-12-1 UNDER  on the road when they scored at least 28 points last game. Which happened in a shootout with Washington State 39-36. This is not the kind of football, HC Helton wants this team to play, and Im betting a more conservative type of game will be implemented here on the road. It must be note USC have scored an average of 8.5 ppg in their two road games. 

Arizonas HC Sumlin is 8-0 UNDER L/8 after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992 which happened in a 35-14 win vs Oregon State last time out. The average combined score of these tilts rings in at 41.4 ppg. 

These teams have gone under in 8 of their L/11 meetings. 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (USC) - off a home win against a conference rival, in the first half of the season 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

The Rockets in their previous two games  vs Fresno State scored 52 and 54 points on the Bulldogs and are currently showing more explosive firepower by already putting 60+ points on the board on two occasions this season. Fresno State has a fine team, but if they want to take out Toledo here this week they are going to have to score in bunches to get the job done. With that said, Im betting on this tilt going over the Total. 

Play OVER 

 Washington has looked good this season, in wins against Auburn, Utah and Arizona State, but their doing it by averaging just  21 points per game. Here against a very physical and gruelling BYU defence allowing just 17 ppg, the sled dogs are not going to just cruise to an easy victory in my humble opinion. BYU proved their metal already this season when they went into Wisconsin and upset the Badgers as DDdogs, and almost did the same to a solid looking California Bears team losing 21-18 and also beating Arizona as 11.5  point away pups. Look for the Mormons  QB Tanner Mangum to do just enough to put up enough points to get us a cover in what should be a very hard fought tilt. 

WASHINGTON is 1-10 ATS ( after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.WASHINGTON is 7-18 ATS  as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points since 1992.BYU is 24-10 ATS in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite since 1992. 

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (BYU) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), in non-conference games are 47-17 L/27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on BYU to cover 

Play on BYU to cover 

The Nittany Lions (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) are averaging 55.5 points per game. The Buckeyes (4-0, 1-0) are also showing offensive explosiveness as is evident by scoring an average  54.5 per game  . However, I like the defensive physicality of the Nittany lions a lot more and in a game like this  and feel  their stopping abilities Gove them   the edge here on their own field. 

HC James Franklin  when coming off consecutive wins, is 16-2 SU and 17-1 ATS with Penn State behind QB Trace McSorley – with the only non cover coming against  Ohio State in a 39-38 heart breaker last season. the game they played before that was decided by a FG, which could easily be the difference maker here tonight. With that said lets take the points.

PENN ST is 9-0 ATS  after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 season.PENN ST is 15-1 ATS  off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Franklin is 9-0 ATS  off a road win as the coach of PENN ST. 

 ST is 1-9 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games since 1992

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 40-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 35-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Penn State to cover 

Wyoming has a huge problem moving the chains, as was evident by barely getting by lower tier Wofford last week with a 17-14 victory and the won't do much damage here this week vs Boise State defence with a chip on their shoulders after getting smacked around by Oklahoma State last time out. Now with an extra week of rest this talented and redemption minded Broncos team should be ready to put the proverbial pedal to the metal and control the line of scrimmage from start to a finish in what Im betting will be one sided action. While I don't adhere to laying this much lumber with a road side on a consistent basis, there are certain situations such as this one that warrant me doing so. Lay the points with this under appreciated group of 5 favourite.

The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.

Play on Boise State to cover 

Washington State and air orientated attack is going to have their hands full with a strong Utes,  defence anchored by Julian Blackmon and Jaylon Johnson in the secondary  . Utah’s linebackers and safeties, are a also  top tier group should make life miserable for a young group that just got out scored 39-35 by USC last week and could easily be in an emotional letdown scenario . Utes will also be well rested and very ready thanks to their Week Four bye.  Add to that payback for loss suffered last season at home , and I expect this very physical group of Utes to lay down some hurt this week on their way to a victory.

UTAH is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

UTAH is 20-8 ATS L/28 in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season.

CFB road team vs. the money line (UTAH) - allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 41-9. SU L27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Utah Utes to cover 

 Wakes offence has looked explosive this season, but their defence remains and issue and Rice should be able to do some damage here today in what could be an easy over situation. Wake Forest has gone over in 10 straight by an average of 18 ppg coming off a home game that went over the total by double digits.

OVER 

My projections make this a low scoring game. 

CONNECTICUT is 9-0 UNDER L/9 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season with an average combined score of 44.1 ppg scored. Cincinnati HC Fickell in his L/12 off 1 or more straight overs in all games he has coached since 1992 has seen a combined average score of 41.8 ppg scored. ( Cincinnati went over and allowed 30 points last time out, in a hard-fought come from behind victory.  This dedicated defensive minded Bearcats team will be ready to make amends here this week, in a more muted conservative effort)

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (CONNECTICUT) - poor team - outgained by their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after allowing 450 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 38-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

The Cincinnati Bearcats used up a lot of energy last week in a come from behind win vs Ohio. The Bearcats were down 21-0 before mounting that ferocious  comeback and will now be in a little tired after putting out that much effort in a 34-30 win as 7 point chalk. It must  noted that Cincinnati is 0-13-1 ATS  last 16 seasons  off a game as a home favorite where they allowed at least 28 points. I know UConn looks bad this season, but anything is possible in College football as has been evident in some massive upsets the last few weeks. With that said, take the points with the home side that actually sets up well in most of my projections.

Play on UConn to cover 

The Warhawks are coming off consecutive setbacks at the hands of Texas A&M and Troy and now many pundits  probably  are looking at this as easy win and an opportunity to get back on track vs a struggling Georgia State program.  But not so fast UL Monroe, fans. Georgia State despite of losing 3 straight are a side that matches up well agains the Warhawks on my head to head matchup charts  and in power rankings analysis . These kids on UL Monroe were jacked up to play two strong schools last couple of weeks and despite of wanting a win here to get back on track could find themselves bruised and battered and in a bit of a letdown situation. 

GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Georgia State to cover 

 Texas Techs offence is hitting on all cylinders scoring 181 points in their L/3  three games. all wins. West Virginia can score in bunches at well, but after beating Texas Tech last season, I expect the revenge minded Red Raiders have the edge here at home.

W VIRGINIA is 7-20 ATS L/27  in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.TEXAS TECH is 21-9 ATS L/30 in home games vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry. TEXAS TECH is 7-0 ATS in home games in September games over the last 3 seasons.

TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

CFB A home team vs. the money line (TEXAS TECH) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS TECH) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 28-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas Tech to cover 

Nick Saban has a tendency to use games like this  to get his banged up players healthy and to have a look at some of his younger top tier recruits. This is like a bye week for this powerful Alabama team, and Im betting they just coast to victory this week in merciful fashion. 

Saban L/6 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 425 or more yards/game as the coach of ALABAMA have seen Alabama score an average of 34.7 ppg, while the opposition has averaged 9.3 ppg, the average margin of victory coming by 25.4 ppg.Saban  L/24  in home games in weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of ALABAMA have been his team offences put an average of just 34.6 ppg on the board and win by an average of 25.7 ppg. 

UL Lafayette to cover 

 Buffalo only ranks 61st in rushing defense despite of going against some lousy running teams this season. Army controlled their last game against a potent Oklahoma team losing in OT. I know some might think they will be a letdown situation, but this is a tough West Point minded group that won't lie down no matter what. Im betting they deal well with another tough test this week vs another explosive offense. Look for Army to do what it does best behind the option as they control the tempo of this game. This will be frustrating for Buffalo and their NFL bound QB 6'7 Tyree Jackson. Each of the 3 most meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less and another one is a high probability out come. The last two were decided by 4 and 3 points.

BUFFALO is 2-12 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game since 1992.

Play on Army to cover

Colorado is 3-0 on the season, while UCLA is 0-3 , and the stats and numbers also favour  Colorado. However, my power rankings and head to head  defensive vs offensive matchup algorithms suggest we have value with the underdog that has had two weeks to prepare for their opponents . Chip Kelley and company are desperate to salvage this season, and will leave everything on the filed this Friday night in what Im betting will be a Bruins cover.

Note: Colorado is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 at home.

 UCLA is 12-2 ATS  L/14 after allowing 37 points or more in 2 straight games .

Play on UCLA Bruins to cover 

Willie Fritz has assembled a tough bunch here in Tulane and its one of this programs betters group of  talent, behind what is a never say die defence that actually stood tall against Ohio State vaunted offence last week. Ya they were smashed , but man did they look determined. Their no pushovers, and Im so impressed by them that Im willing to recommend we take the points here vs visits Memphis. Note: HC Fritz has won 17 of 25 home games and is 6-1 ATS as home pup of 5 points or more. 

TULANE is 6-0 ATS  in home games after playing a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons

MEMPHIS is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons.MEMPHIS is 4-16 ATS L/20 after scoring 50 points or more last game which happened last week in a 52- 35 victory vs South Alabama.

CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MEMPHIS) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are just 14-46 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover 

The North Carolina Tar Heels will meet the Miami Hurricanes in nationally-televised college football action on Thursday, September 27 at Hard Rock Stadium. The Canes are almost a 3 TD fav, which is out of whack compared to where true line value sits at about 17 points. Thus taking points here tonight is an easy decision. 

N CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 13-42 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on North Carolina to cover 

Army controlled time of possession last week , in their usual methodical way, via their ground attack and delivered Hawaii their first defeat of the season,(27-21) dropping them to 3-1 . The bad news is Hawaii is 0-16-1 ATS L/17 at home coming off a game where they had less than 26 minutes time of possession. Im betting all the early season travelling and the intensity and physicality of that last tilt will have the Rainbow Warriors a little tired this week,  and less than motivated as they face a lower tier team.With that said, look for the margin of victory by the Warriors to be less than expected by the lines makers.

Note: Prior to this season, the Duquesnes last game against an FBS team was in 2014, when they were very competitive facing the  Buffalo  Bulls of the MAC losing 38-28.  Duquesne has converted 53.2% of its third-down opportunities, this season ranking fifth in the FCS in that category. Hawaii has allowed 50% conversion on  third downs , with only six other teams  in the nation more futile defensively stopping this key down.  

Play on Duquesne  to cover 

The Dukes behind  transfer quarterback from Florida Atlantic  Daniel Parr enter this game against Hawaii having scored an average of 33 points in their last three games , all of which were victories. Last season they averaged 32.3 ppg , so this is not an anomaly. Meanwhile, Hawaii plays a one way game, that features an explosive offence and a defence that is pourous to say the least. I expect Hawaii to pile up points here vs a lower tier team, but for Duquesne to fire right back in a tilt that promises to be high scoring and very entertaining. 

Play OVER 

The Washington Huskies are getting a lot of love from the lines makers here and not giving a lot of respect to the Arizona State Sun Devils. But it must be noted that the Huskies  have failed to cover 16 of their L/21 as PAC 12 Double digit  home chalk . Meanwhile, Arizona State has covered 6 of their L/7 as DD dogs. Hey I know the Sun Devis lost to San Diego State last week , as favs, but I'll forgive that effort as they were in a letdown situation after the physical win they notched the week before against Michigan state. Meanwhile, Washington is getting a lot of accolades from the pundits, but Im betting the sledding for the Huskies won't be easy in this spot after their exhausting physical win vs Utah last week.

The Arizona State Sun Devils are 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS in their the last twelve games against the Washington Huskies.

 WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS  after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games .

CFB Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 42-86 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Arizona State to cover 

Eastern Michigan is highly under rated and staunch defensive team that can give San Diego State some issues here. I know the Aztecs  pulled off  the upset behind a backup  QB last time out vs Arizona State, but now in a huge letdown situation , I expect SDState could find them selves getting frustrated by  a very physical MAC team, with a never say die attitude that went into Purdue and upset them in their 2nd game of the season, allowing them just 19 points . It must be noted that  Eastern Michigan is 8-0 ATS the last eight vs non conference opposition and  are also 2-0 SUATS all-time against MWC opponents.  

E MICHIGAN is 8-0 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (E MICHIGAN) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), in non-conference games are 46-17 L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

A lot of top tier defensive numbers might sway a weekend warrior to bet this tilt under. But Im betting these two capable attacks will knock down each others top tier stopping numbers this week and leave them temporarily shattered. I know both teams have quality defences or so it seems thus far, but they will be tested by the likes of RB Bryce Love of Stanford and  QB Justin Herbert for Oregon . Stanford hung 49 points on the Ducks last season and are capable of a big output again, and the Ducks now with added fire power should be up to the task of doing some scoring of their own.

STANFORD in their L/6 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 65.5 ppg scored.

OREGON in their L/10 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9  or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 68.1 ppg scored. 

Oregon is 11-0 OVER at home coming off a game that went under the total by at least 10 points.

Play on the OVER 

Oklahoma State was bypassed by most of the pundits last week in their game vs Boise State. I however, knew better, and recommend we bet on Gundy and company instead and I was right in my assessments .Now the Cowboys are getting a little to much love vs a Texas Tech team that is explosive offensively and capable of hanging with Oklahoma State , which they proved in a big DDwin vs a well balanced Houston side last week by a 63-49 count. Also I expect the Cowboys of Stillwater to be in a letdown situation after that huge win that saw them playing with chip on their proverbial shoulders. Note: The Cowboys have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 as DD home chalk, while Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS  L6 as conference dogs of 10 points or more. 

Although Oklahoma State has a nine-game winning streak in the series, the matchup has produced some quality shootouts recently. The Cowboys just squeezed by Texas Tech 45-44 in Stillwater in 2016 and escaped Lubbock with a 41-34 victory a year ago.

Texas Tech is 12-0 ATS L/12 on the road coming off a home game where they scored at least 42 points.

 OKLAHOMA ST is 7-19 ATS L/26 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS  after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (TEXAS TECH) - excellent offensive team (6.2 YPP or more ) against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 YPP or less ), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Texas Tech to cover 

Coastal Carolina is one of those teams I have circled to better the pundits expect, especially with HC  Joe Moglia on the sidelines. This coach is super intelligent and one of the best hidden secrets in the College game. They walloped their last two opponents UAB and Campbell by putting 47 and 58 points on the scoreboard and must not be underestimated vs a Ragin’ Cajuns side that is  ranked 107th on d in the nation and  from a betting perspective just  12-29-1 ATS mark at home in conference play, including 2-15-1 ATS when off a loss which is the case here as they are off a 56-10 loss to Miss State last week.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COASTAL CAROLINA) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover 

The 2-0 Wolfpack  had their game against ranked West Virginia at Raleigh. Cancelled last week because of Hurricane conditions.  Now they go on the road to face Doc Holliday’s Marshall , which is never easy task especially  for a rusty team that missed some practices . Note Marshall is defiant 7-1-1 ATS record in their last nine appearances as non-conference home dogs and their L/6 tries vs ACC competition have not failed too cover with a 5-1-1 ATS mark.  Huntington will be rocking today so when you come a knocking take the points with the Thundering Herd. 

MARSHALL is 7-0 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. NC STATE is 7-20 L/27 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less .

2-0 away teams in Game Three like NC State with a week off are just 14-28 ATS in non-conference games. Rested, undefeated non-conference home dogs  like Marshall are 11-1 ATS against opponents playing off an ATS win.

Play on Marshall to cover 

North Texas is off a huge win vs Arkansas last week, and the team as a whole after the wild celebration, and start to finish leave everything on the field type effort will now be in an emotional let down spot vs a Liberty team, that is famous for the amount of NFL players they have developed. It must be noted that North Texas are just  3-22 SU  off a SU win as a dog and a current run of 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS away under the same perimeters. Meanwhile, Flames HC Turner Gill is a perfect  5-0 ATS in his career as a underdog against opposition off a SU/ATS victory  and cover of 20 or more points which the young men from Denton achieved vs Arkansas last week. With Gill having 2 weeks to prepare for this tilt, Im betting he will have this young talented group ready to compete here on their own home field. LIBERTY is a perfect  12-0 ATS  in non-conference games since 1992.

Play on Liberty to cover 

Kansas is on a two game win streak, and Baylor was exposed last week in a 40-27 loss to a banged Duke team limping with numerous injuries. The Jayhawks continue to be under rated and disrespected because of a dismal long term record, but after annihilating back to back opponents, it sure looks like their on their way back to being competitive.Kansas is 12-4 SUATS  L/16  in games following consecutive wins, while the Bad News Bears’ have failed to cover 14 of their L/19  as favs.  

BAYLOR is 7-20 ATS L/27 against teams who force 2.75 or more turnovers/game on the season.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas to cover 

Im not going to argue about who the better team is here, its obvious Clemson is a national contender while , Georgia Tech is not. However, it must be noted that Tech   behind  a one way running game and ability to control time of possession, have the ability to stick close enough for a cover here vs a Dabo Swinney team that consistently seems to do just enough to get a victory especially on the road where they have failed to cover 14 of their L/15 as away chalk of 7 or more points. With a revenge game on board vs Syracuse up next Clemson might not be full focused here, giving us an edge with a underdog that has cashed 6 straight with conference revenge. ( Clemson beat Tech last season 24-10 at home) last season.

Play on GTech to cover 

Texas A&M is 6-0 ATS in Game Four of the season, and Jimbo Fisher is 10-2 SU versus SEC opponents, including 4-0 SUATS away. The Aggies played Clemson tough in their first game of the season covering while making Clemson work for the win. Now here on the road it will be a lot tougher, but thanks to Alabamas pounding of opponents to this point in the season the price tag attached to them is high and there is value taking the points here behind a very well coached team.  TEXAS A&M is 7-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. 

After consecutive  blowout wins against Northwestern State (59-7) and ULM (48-10), Texas A&M is fifth in the nation in total offense, averaging 596.3 yards per game. It's one of four offenses that rank in the top 25 in both rushing and passing (Houston, Ohio State and Oklahoma State ) nd have the ability to make this close.

CFB Road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. 42-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas A&M to cover 

Both these teams according to my power rankings have not performed up tot heir charts. Yes, I know Louisville has won 2 row, with the only excusable loss coming to Alabama,   and Indiana 3 in a row.  But those wins by both teams have come  vs teams they were expected to beat, and Virginia despite of beating Ohio of the Mac last week in convincing fashion , are still not performing at an optimal level. After analysing  head to head strengths and weaknesses , Im sticking to my preseason assessments, that would make the Cardinal the superior team even here in enemy territory. 

Louisville is 15-0 ATS L/15 on the road when they failed to cover by at least seven points last game.

CFB home team (VIRGINIA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 18-46 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Louisville to cover 

After getting beaten up on by Alabama in their first game the Cards have tightened up their D, and have allowed a total of 24 points in their last two games both wins ( 14 ppg) .That formula for success looks to remain in place this week vs a Virginia team that scored 45 points in a win vs Ohio last week. HC  Mendenhall was not completely happy with the Cavs efforts because of sloppy play and turnovers, and will have his side primed to play a more staunch brand of defensive ball in this tilt. Im betting on both these scenarios to help keep this tilt on the low side of the Total. 

VIRGINIA is 6-0 UNDER  after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons.

Virginia has gone under 12 straight times  coming off a home game where they scored at least 42 points which happened vs Ohio U last time out. 

Play UNDER