Watching Fresno State get shredded defensively (554 yards) and struggle to move the ball, vs Hawaii in a lopsided loss, has me fading what looks to be a Fresno State program that is having problems adjusting to new HC Kalen DeBoer . Meanwhile, Colorado States new up tempo no huddle offense, and up-trending defense under former Boston College HC Addazio has me taking the Rams here even though this is their opening game. Note: During this current covid season, teams playing their first game against opposition playing 2 or more games are a bankroll expanding 25-9 for a 74% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on Colorado State to win 

 A first place team South Alabama comes into this game as underdogs to the Sun Belts cellar dweller Georgia Southern.That is a interesting dichotomy, but from a [power rankings perspective and  from a head to head matchup analytical view the home team deserves to be favorites. 

South Alabama is just 2-21 SU L/23 as visitors  and have failed to cover 15 times , and are  1-15 SU and 4-12 ATS in conference tilts. 

Georgia Southern is 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS  in their L/6 meetings , including 3-0 SU/ATS at home . GSU is  7-0 SU L/7 and 6-1 ATS as  home chalk.

S ALABAMA is 0-9 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1992.

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GA SOUTHERN) - with a poor defense - allowing 5.8 or more yards/play, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 25-4 ATS :L/28 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. 

Play on Georgia Southern to cover 

The Cougars are averaging 3.2 sacks per game, which is 15th-best in the nation. They have 16 sacks through five games. Im betting Texas States offense ill have issues flowing in this tilt. BYU’s defense is allowing 14 points per game. Meanwhile, after annihilating Houston on the road last week Im betting this will be a game where alot of starters get rested as they game progresses, as bigger fish are on deck. This Im betting results in a more muted effort offensively from the Cougars in a game that they will use like a week off. 

TEXAS ST is 8-1 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.5 ppg going on the board. TEXAS ST is 13-3 UNDER L/16 vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season with a combined average of 50.2 ppg. TEXAS ST is 8-1 UNDER as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 48.9 ppg going on the board.

BYU is 0-13-1 UNDER as a favorite coming off a game where they covered by at least five points with the highest combined score total coming in at 59 points and. the overall combined average score clicking in at 41.9 ppg.BYU is 7-0 UNDER off a road win over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 44.3 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

The Cincinnati D is tops in the  AAC, ranking first  in both total and scoring defense while giving up just 12.3 points per game and are well rested as they have been off since Oct 3. Thats extremely important vs a explosive SMU offense that ranks among the top attacks in the nation. However, that offense Im betting will not be as efficient here this week against this type of D, and with receiver Reggie Roberson and starting running back TJ McDaniel out will find themselves less fluid. These teams have played very closely contested games in recent meetings, and Im sure another one is at hand, but my projections make the Bearcats the superior tea, and with the wrong side favored will take a stance with the points. 

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

UTSA has played valiantly of late, however, putting in so much hard work and still losing, three straight they are now exhausted. Army was last weeks opponent and before that BYU and UAB on the road. Those were all physical grinding affairs, and now against a hungry LATech squad, off an embarrassing 35-17 home loss to Marshall last time out, Im betting they wont have the needed energy to get across the finish line again. 

Louisiana Tech is 12-0 ATS/SU  as a favorite coming off a home loss where they scored less than 35 points.  

UTSA is 0-6 ATS  after playing 2 straight non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Play on LA Tech 

Broncos have owned this series against the Aggies clicking on 16 of the L/17 meetings straight up and have been an ATM for their betting backers cashing on 13 of those games against the spread. Last season when these teams met at Utah State the Broncos teed of on the Aggies winning by a 56-21 count and that was with Utah States star QB in the lineup (Jordan Love).  I know the Aggies will be out looking for revenge, but Im betting Bryan Harsins group just don't have  same quality guns as the Broncos needed to get the job done. Key: .QB  Bachmeier started eight games as a true freshman last season. He recorded  a 7-1 record as a starter and threw for 1,879 yards and 9 touchdowns while completing 63 percent of his passes and today Im betting he continues his ascension. 

Play on Boise State to cover 

Missouri according to my power rankings is being over rated here today. Yes, they beat Auburn last time out, but despite of getting the W, they were out yarded by a  481-297 count, which tells a truer tale of their abilities . Here today vs a very hungry defending national champion Im betting their vulnerabilities will be exposed.  

Missouri is 0-6-1 L/7 in this series vs LSU. 

LSU is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 2 seasons.

Defending National Champions are 50-9-1 SU in games with a below .500  record, including 9-1 ATS in conference games. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (LSU) - struggling  defensive team (440 or more  YPG) against an average defensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 26-7 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 12.8 ppg.

CFB home team vs. the money line (LSU) - excellent passing team (8.3 or more  PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (6.4-7.5 PY/Att.), after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 31-8 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 10.8 ppg. 

Play on LSU to cover 

Texas has fallen in my power rankings thanks in part to a defense that has allowed 456 yards and 36 points per game. Meanwhile, Baylor  is up-trending and took out  Texas, 24-10, in Waco last season and are  9-3 ATS in their  last 12 visits  to Austin. I know the Longhonrs have revenge on board, but the way they are playing nothing will come easy for them , thus getting points here makes for a viable wager. 

TEXAS is 0-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 season.  Herman is 0-8 ATS  in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of TEXAS. 

BAYLOR is 9-1 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.( Failed to cover their last time out on Oct 3 to W.Virginia is. a 27-21 loss)

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, in the second half of the season are 27-62 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB college football home favorite like Texas with a week of rest in Game Five if they allow 30 or more points per game are just 3-21 ATS L/30 seasons. 

Play on Baylor to cover 

Navy at 3-0 in AAC play is huge underdog here at home. I know Navy does not look as cohesive as past carnations of this program, but Houston is over rated as well, as was evident when BYU ran over them as visitors , and that fact the team has given up as many yards as they have accumulated. With that said, and knowing how Military colleges dont take to being embarrassed or disrespected by the linesmakers, Ill make a stand here with the Middies and the points. 

NAVY is 9-2 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. NAVY is 7-0 ATS  after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

Navy is 11-0 ATS L/12 as a dog facing a team allowing at least 29 points per game. The only 3 losses in this set came by 3 points exact. 

Play on Navy to cover 

After a muted 13-point effort  against Clemson to open the season, the Demon Deacon offense has  looked explosive . Wake Forests QB Hartman,  has been in top form in his last three tilts,  connecting through the air for an average of  9.0 yards per attempt with no interceptions. Thats the kind of team and QB you want to back as underdogs getting points. My own projections make this to many points for Vtech to be favored by, and Im buying in to the Deacons ability to cover vs a side that has failed to cover its last 4 in back to back road games.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

The Knights behind the big arm of quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who became the first UCF signal-caller to throw for over 500 yards last Saturday against Memphis Im betting will once again be ready to explode on offense vs a suspect Tulane D. Meanwhile, Tulane also has a top tier dual threat QB in Michael Pratt who Im betting will also tee off on a UCF D that ranks 74th in total defense out of 77 FBS teams. 

Play on the OVER 

Tulsa’s showing us a strong defensive structure this season . Ranking third in Havoc ratings lead by Linebacker Zaven Collins who has  owned the opposition with three sacks, three hurries and a top-10 tackles for loss  On the flipside, the Canes offense  has been below average ranking in the bottom 10 in Success Rate with a Finishing Drives rank of 63rd. .Meanwhile, USF  while trying to move at an accelerated pace offense , still have huge problems as their  Offensive Finishing Drives rank a lowly 75th. Thats not a good omen for Bulls fluidity against a  Tulsa defense that  allows just three points per trip in past the 40-yard line. All in all my projections estimate a total closer to 46 whihc gives us great value on a under wager. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TULSA) - off an upset win as a road underdog of 10 or more, in weeks 5 through 9 are 42-15 UNDER L/28 seasons. 

Play UNDER 

Arkansas State has an explosive offense but the App State Mountaineers   defense is  showing themselves to be as tough as nails,  as is evident by holding their opposition  to 19.3 PPG  and in their only loss allowed  another top tier explosive offense to just 17 points on the road vs Marshall. Tonight I expect the Mountaineers D, to own the line of scrimmage vs the Wolves and for the Mounties offense to tee off on a Arkansas St D, that is allowing 39.8 ppg.

APPALACHIAN ST is 7-0 ATS /SU versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9  or more yards/play over the last 2 season with average margin of victory coming by an average of just under 22 ppg. 

Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (ARKANSAS ST) - with a poor first half defense - 16 or more points per game, after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored 39-82 ATS L/28 years for a 68% go against conversion rate. 

Play on App State to cover 

The Georgia Bulldogs take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in SEC action this Saturday in a game I have projected to eclipse this total. Ill state the obvious by saying that both teams possess explosive offenses with the Tide averaging 51 ppg and the Dawgs 36 ppg, and despite of viable defenses, it will take a boat load full of points for one of these teams to come out on top here, with OT also being  a higher percentage possibility. These teams have seen the over eclisped in 8 of their L/10 meetings and last year they took part in a tilt that combined for 63 points. Rinse and repeat folks. 

ALABAMA is 11-3 OVER  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons.

Smart is 6-0 OVER in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better as the coach of GEORGIA with a combined average of 67.2 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

UNC showed its vulnerabilities on defense against the Hokies, allowing 46 points last week and now Im betting incumbent QB Jordan Travis will exploit those issues here this week for Florida State. I know Florida State never seems to inspire bettors, but N.Carolina is being over rated here on the line, thus giving us value with the home underdog. Florida State is 15-3-1 SU in this series since joining the ACC. and are 5-0-1 ATS when facing a undefeated Tar Heels. 

Play on Florida State to cover 

This is just to many points for Marshall to be laying on the road especially with the The Bulldogs showing a   16-4 ATS record  as  underdogs with revenge , including 13-1 ATS in conference tilts. Last year Fritz and company lost 31-10 at Marshall and now with payback on the agenda they will be at their best. 

MARSHALL is 6-17 ATS L/23 in road games off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival . 

LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

LA Tech to cover 

The Central Florida Golden Knights have owned   this series vs Memphis , winning 13 straight times and Im betting nothing changes here today. Considering Memphis has played just two games this season due to COVID-19 protocols Im betting their cohesiveness is in question, and that they have not reached peak performance capacity yet as was the case in a loss to SMU last time out. Needless to say the Tigers are vulnerable against a Central Florida football program that wants badly to bounce back after a off game last time out that resulted in their first loss of the season. 

Play on Central Florida to win and cover/split line pick and -3 

 Army lit up their two first opponents of the season recording crushing win vs MTSU and UL-Monroe, However since than  Army has lost to Cincinnati by 14 points , allowed Abilene Christian to score 23 points on them and barley got by a less than stellar Citadel by just  4 points. Meanwhile,  the Roadrunners have captured three wins this season and gave BYU and UAB hard fought close  tilts on the road. From a matchup perspective this line is slightly tainted based on Army's reputation which gives us value with a home pup that has cashed 5 of their L/6 as single digit dogs at home.

Play on UTSA to cover

South Alabama got beat by UAB at home on September 24th and have now had plenty of time to recuperate and be fully rested for this tilt vs Texas State(1-4) and have an edge. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (S ALABAMA) - excellent passing team (8.3 or more  PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (6.4-7.5 PY/Att.), after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 30-8 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with the average  ppg diff clicking in at  +10.6 ppg. 

Play on South Alabama to cover 

Houston after a long delay played their first game of the season vs the Tulane Green Wave last week in successful fashion out gaining them by a  476-211  count rolling  to a 49-31 victory. Meanwhile, BYU had a much harder time vs a physical UTSA squad winning by 7 points but failing to cover as 34+ point chalk. Now this week, BYU makes its first trip away from Provo , and are being pegged as favorites. However, the Mormons are just 2-12 ATS L/14 away as 4 point or more chalk, and in my humble opinion are being over estimated in their abilities at this point in the season. Tonight Im betting on Holgerson's heros to get us the cover. It must be noted the HC of Houston has seen his team cover 3 straight times vs undefeated sides. Meanwhile, Sitake is 0-6 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games as the coach of BYU.

Play on Houston to cover

The SMU Mustangs travel to play the Tulane Green Wave in College Football action this Friday night. Which side has the edge? Get the scholastic gridiron info the books do not want you to have. kick off after 6:00 pm et

The Arkansas State Red Wolves’ explosive  offense will  be in tough here against the Georgia State Panthers’ top tier  defense. My projections say they will have success , but not on par with the linesmakers estimates. Yes both teams run fast paced offences, but the totals number, is just a tad high considering one of these sides defence is of the top tier variety Note:Georgia State  ranks second in the nation in defensive Havoc and has registered 17 tackles for a loss. Georgia State, ranks first in Stuff Rate, Power Success and against pass explosiveness. Im betting the Panthers dont make life easy for the Red Wolves, and their 50/50 attack might turn to the run more often and eat clock time  because of the problems that the Panthers secondary will provide. This Im betting leads to a lower scoring tilt that the linesmakers expect. 

GEORGIA ST is 7-0 UNDER  in road games off 2 or more consecutive overs with a combined average of 53.8 ppg scored.GEORGIA ST is 10-1 UNDER  after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game with a combined average of 48 ppg going on the score board. 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (ARKANSAS ST/GEORGIA ST) - when playing on a Thursday are 48-18   UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Louisiana moved up in the national rankings this week, ranked No. 21 in the AP Top 25 poll and No. 21 in the USA Today Amway Coaches poll and deserve respect.  I like Coastal Carolina football program and they are up trending, but according to my graphical data charts should be closer to -10 underdogs, thus giving us value with the favorite at home. Im betting on Levi Lewis  to be key in  their victory tonight. The Qb has thrown for 723 yards through three games this year. The yardage total   ranks him 34th in the nation .

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COASTAL CAROLINA) - excellent offensive team (6.2 YPP or more ) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), in conference games are 11-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play ON UL Lafayette. 

In a battle of two undefeated teams, Im betting we see a closely contested affair that is conservative in nature. Neither of these teams plays to tempo. For example :UL Lafayette's offense  averages 26 seconds per play while  Coastal Carolina moves at a snails pace behind one the slowest offenses in the nation at 30.2 seconds per play.  

The Ragin’ Cajuns have had alot of problems converting opportunity into points, with a Finishing Drives rank of 70th in the nation. Meanwhile, UL Lafayette's under appreciated  defense has  done a fantastic job of limiting explosive plays, ranking seventh in opposition plays from scrimmage of  plus 20 yards. 

Everything for me points to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this number. My projections estimate this total closer to 56 which gives credence to my recommended  under bet. 

COASTAL CAROLINA is 8-1 UNDER after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.

LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 UNDER as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Play UNDER 

Miami may be improved but their still not in the same category as the Clemson Tigers.Dabo has won 24 straight at home  and in my humbler betting opinion will be motivated to romp here today.  The last two meetings in this series, were 58-0 and 38-3 victories for Clemson. Rinse and repeat. 

CLEMSON is 11-2 ATS  vs. sub par/average passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons with Clemson scoring an average of 50.2 ppg while allowing 12,2 ppg.CLEMSON is 9-1 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 200  or more rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by just under 30 ppg. 

Play on Clemson to cover 

Western Kentucky  does not have great numbers, but must not be underestimated as home dogs vs a Marshall side in a letdown situation after a huge win vs Appalachian State last time out. 

W KENTUCKY is 16-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.  Holliday is 8-18 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of MARSHALL.

CFB home team (W KENTUCKY) - off a road win against a conference rival against opponent off a double digit upset win as an underdog of 6 more are 38-13 ATS L/28 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover

This will be Temples first game of the season, while Navy will play their 4th game of the season. I know Navy has looked uneven to this point, but with this being the Owls first real game, the Midshipman could easily have an edge .With that said, Im recommending we take the points. 

NAVY is 10-2 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. NAVY is 10-2 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Midshipmen are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.Midshipmen are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.Midshipmen are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Play on Navy to cover 

  My projections estimate this game to be decided by one score or less. I also  wont be surprised if the Wildcats win this game SU.  I know QB Skylar Thompson's arm injury might be a problem, but according to some insiders he should still be able to play if things go south for his backup. Also after TCUs huge win vs Texas last time out I expect them to be in a letdown situation. In the past playing the Longhorns has not been a good come for TCU betting backers as they have lost the cash in 11 of 12 tilts. Patterson is 2-12 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of TCU.The Wildcats have won four of the last five meetings with the Frogs and get my support here taking points. 

Play on Kansas State to cover 

 QB Skylar Thompson's arm injury is not as bad  as had earlier been anticipated and he will probably play and if he does not Will Howard who is extremely capable will admirably fill in. Kansas State has proven they can move the ball and Im betting they do it again today vs a TCU D in a letdown spot after a big win vs Texas last time out. On the flip side, the Frogs can also light up the board , behind QB   Duggan, a sophomore, who has thrown for 472 yards and three touchdown. Patterson is 20-9 OVER after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of TCU with a combined average of 60.2 ppg scored.

Kansas State is 19-0-1 OVER L/20 dating back to the  2006 season as a dog of at least three points coming off a home game where they allowed at least two points fewer than expected with a combined  average of 69.6 ppg scored with none of the 20 tilts seeing less a combined score at less than this total. 

Play OVER 

Neither of these teams inspire confidence in most bettors, but according to my projections FIU is the superior side by 6 + points. 

CFB Road underdogs (MIDDLE TENN ST) - in conference games, off 2 covers where the team lost as an underdog are 4-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (MIDDLE TENN ST) - in conference games, off 2 covers where the team lost as an underdog are 3-34 L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate with the average ppg  diff clicking in at -20.4 ppg. 

Play on Florida International to cover 

 The Roadrunners are much improved and deserve respect here . With that said, Im betting on them  to continue their viable  ATS profit run that  has seen them cover 7 of their L/9 9 vs. FBS programs  and 4 of their last 5 as visitors. Hey BYU looks powerful, but this spread is just to big in my humble betting opinion. 

BYU has covered on 2 of their L/13 as 30 plus point chalk. UTSA has covered all 5 of their games  where they were made  30+ point underdogs. 

CFB Home favorites (BYU) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more  PPG) against a poor defensive team (28-34 PPG), after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points are 20-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UTSA

This is a Tennessee side that has won 6 straight SEC tilts and 8 wins overall,  must be respected here getting points vs Georgia . My projections actually make this a very close game that will be decided by 1 score or less. The Vols have also cashed 4 of their L/6 on the road as 10 or more point dogs and look like solid underdogs in this spot play. Also with revenge on board board for a ugly 43-14 loss in Knoxville last season, there will be lots of motivation for the Vols here on the road vs a Dawgs side that has failed to cash in 4 of their L/5 at home as DD SEC home favs. Note: Tennessee is 8-2 ATS in this series when out looking for revenge, including 5-0 ATS as a underdog.

Smart is 4-12 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of GEORGIA. 

Play on Tennessee to cover 

. Duke enters this contest winless in 4 trips to the gridiron and are being over rated here vs a Cuse side that looked good recently in a win vs GTech by a 37-20 victory.

The Orange smashed Duke , 49-6 last season, and even though the Blue Devils might want revenge, Im betting their effort to avenge that loss wont come easily.  It must be noted  the Devils are just 2-7 ATS in their L/9 attempts  when playing with ACC revenge. 

SYRACUSE is 16-5 ATS L/21 in home games versus poor rushing teams - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry. SYRACUSE is 16-6 ATS L/22  in home games off a home win by 17 points or more.

DUKE is 2-11 ATS L/13 in road games after allowing 37 points or more in 2 straight games.

CFB  home team (SYRACUSE) - off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog, in weeks 5 through 9 are 47-18 L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.

Play on Syracuse to cover 

Im one of these guys who believes Florida is over rated. You have to remember that this is a Gators side that did not play well against  South Carolina winning by a 38-24 count while failing to cover as 18 point favs  and also gave up a crap load full  of points in the 51-35 victory at Ole Miss. I know Texas A&M were soundly beaten by Alabama. But hey that was Alabama , so Im giving them a break . Note: Aggies HC Jimbo Fisher is 6-0 SU all-time when coming off a loss of more than 17 points. These teams have split their last four  meetings with the last game in 2017 ending  in a 19-17 A&M victory. With that said, I;ll take the points here in what Im betting will be a closely contested affair. 

Texas A&M are 15-3-3 ATS as conference home underdogs against opposition coming off a victory  of 14 or more points, including 12-1 ATS as underdogs of less than 15 points.

Take the the points with Texas A&M 

Both teams enter with 2-0 records overall and in ACC play. Virginia Tech despite of being short handed on a regular basis has found ways to win while North Carolina had  played twice since Sept 12 and looked average at best this past  Saturday in a  26-22 win at Boston College . The Hokies  lead the ACC (3rd nationally) with 319 yards rushing yards per game, behind Khalil Herbert  who leads the nation with a 156-yard per-game average. North Carolina leads the ACC, and the nation, in rushing defense at 54 yards per game. Strength against strength  has me envisioning a stalemate type of tilt that will be closely contested.   

VIRGINIA TECH is 15-5 ATS L/20 as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.

Virginia Tech has covered 6 of the L/7 meetings in this series. 

CFB team (VIRGINIA TECH) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 75-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Virginia Tech to cover 

My numbers suggest this total should be closer to 54.5. So when looking at this game and trying to dissect value I see the under as a viable wager. This is Houstons first game of the season, and Im betting their offensive flow will be less than fluent out of the gate. Meanwhile, as is almost always the case defenses have an edge in preparedness early on in a teams season, I can see Houston ready to play on that front with 93% production back from last season on the defensive side of the ball. Also look for  Tulane to pound the ball on the ground and to eat up plenty of clock time. The Green Wave have rushed on more than 52% of its plays and its become obvious to me QB Keon Howard is not a guy to go to the air much, giving credence to a much more subdued offensive performance. In 57 passes Howard has yet to throw a TD pass and has complete just 48% off 44 drops backs. 

Play on the UNDER

 The Sooners (1-1, 0-1 Big 12) have won five consecutive conference titles and have reached the College Football Playoff for three consecutive seasons, but their ability to continue either of those streaks is in doubt after last week's 38-35 loss to Kansas State. Now in desperation mode, Im betting they will come out here ready to play, but the linesmakers knowing this and playing to public sentiment have over evaluated this line giving us value with the underdog. 

The series has been largely lopsided with the Sooners winning 20 of the last 21 meetings and 24 consecutive games in Ames since 1961.

But since Matt Campbell's arrival, the Cyclones have been competitive against Oklahoma. Each of the last four meetings has been decided by 10 or fewer points and Iowa State pulled off an upset at Oklahoma in 2017. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 4-28 L/5 seasons for a go against  88% conversion rate. 

CFB Road favorites (OKLAHOMA) - excellent offensive team (440 ot more YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 33-69 ATS L/28 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. 

Play on Iowa State to cover

North Texas plays their best football at home where they have won 16 of their L/20 games, ande must be respected vs a Southern Miss team that has lost their first 3 games of the season. 

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (NORTH TEXAS) - excellent offensive team (440 or moreYPG) against a team with a terrible defense (440 or more  YPG), after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 33-1 L/10 years for a 97% conversion rate. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SOUTHERN MISS) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 225 or more rushing yards/game, after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game are 6-28 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

Play on North Texas to cover 

Arkansas' offense Im betting will flow   against Mississippi State and have more favorable results  than it did against Georgia's top tier D.  Meanwhile, Miss State off a huge win last week vs LSU will now find themselves in a letdown spot. With that said we have value with the Arkansas Razorbacks to cover . 

Both these sides Air Force and Navy key on running the ball which grinds down alot of clock time. Both sides also know how to defend against the run especially from a similar opponent like they will face today. This adds up to a tilt that Im betting lands under this totals number.  It must be noted  that in  games involving two of the three service academy programs a 35-9-1 record to the under has been registered for a  80% conversion rate.

Last time out Navy made a huge comeback to win 27-24 after being down 24-0 at the half. Now in a huge letdown situation and rusty after a extended two week break Im also betting their offense has another Narcoleptic episode.   Niumatalolo is 17-3 UNDER  after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game as the coach of NAVY. Also Niumatalolo is 20-4 UNDER in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of NAVY while averaging just 19.8 ppg on offense. 

Play UNDER 

The Air Force Falcons have won eight consecutive games going back to last season, which matches Notre Dame for the nation's longest active winning streak. Navy has lost three consecutive games in Colorado Springs and Im betting if they win today it will not come easily. 

Niumatalolo is 7-16 ATS in road games after a bye week as the coach of NAVY

CFB Road favorites (NAVY) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 22-55 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play on Air Force to cover 

This SMU side deserves respect here vs Memphis  as they ride a 12-2 SU record that dates back to last season. This season they are 3-0 averaging 562 yards per game and 49 points. Note:  SMU HC  Sonny Dykes owns a 5-0 SU record  when coming off three wins-exact and get the nod again today.   SMU is 6-0 ATS  after playing a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons. Dykes is 6-0 ATS  after playing 2 straight non-conference games as the coach of SMU.

CFB home team vs. the money line (SMU) - after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite, after the first month of the season are 33-3 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (SMU) - after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite are 40-5 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on SMU

CFB  home team vs. the money line (KANSAS ST) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 27-4 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate.

Kansas State to cover 

Boston College behind HC Jeff Hafley  are off to a 2-0 start, including victories against  Duke and Texas State. With the Golden Eagles 6-1-1 ATS  as a conference home dog I looked closely at them to get us the cover today vs North Carolina .   Considering since game day, it will be three weeks since UNC last played with this being their first road game Im betting they will be rusty and less cohesive than they need to be vs a scarppy side giving us the edge we need with BC to cover at home as DD dogs. 

Play on Boston College to cover 

NC State's defense despite of some hickups had success pressuring the quarterback in the Wake Forest game, registering six sacks in that outing  and Im betting they can replicate that here today on their way to a cover vs a hyped 3-0  public favorite( Pittsburgh) The L/4 times that Pittsburgh found themselves at 3-0 they failed to cash for their backers. I know Pitts D, looks strong but NC States offense looks capable of keeping pace . 

Take the points with NC State to cover 

Thanks to recency bias of a 2-0 and  103-10 winning deficit to start their season BYU has been raised to its highest bar in seasons. However, a natural letdown is expected by me vs  a Skip Holtz side that must not be underestimated in its ability to stay within the 24 point plus line . Holtz as a  Road Underdog is 23-9 ATS L/32 for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.  

Louisiana Tech can really make a game fast and their pace right now is at  24.8 seconds per play.  The  offense has run 90% of plays through the 10 formation, and have gone to the air in  60% of those downs and overall  ranked top 20 through two games in passing success rate behind the arm of Luke Anthony. When your looking to back a underdog like this I truly have always believed that that teams needs to be offensively efficient  with a quick strike ability, and we have that  with LA Tech. 

BYU s 0-7 ATS as double-digit favorite when playing off back-to-back wins against an opponent  coming off a double-digit victory like LA Tech. 

Play on LA Tech to cover 

BYU started fast this season against a Navy team that was not prepared to play. The final 55-3 score was indicative of a side with more practice vs one that did not even take part in full contact drills. So Im not going to take alot from the Mormons game 1 win and crown them a top tier side just yet. Now after more than two weeks rest, BYU may also exhibit some rust, vs a well coached Troy team. Note: BYU is just 2-9 ATS L/11 with rest. It must be noted that Troys HC was the offensive coordinator  at Auburn and   a former quarterback coach at Troy and knows how to push a offense into warp speed.

BYU is 23-41 ATS  after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.

The Trojans, are 10-0 ATS when coming off a non-conference win which was the case in the DD victory vs Midd Tenn State last time out. 

Play on Troy to cover 

Gamecocks are just  2-9 ATS   in the last eleven series meetings at home, and Im betting against them here today, as Tennessee according to my numbers should be closer to -6 favs. Yes even here on the road. Note: The Vols won their final 6 games of last season, and 17 starters back look like a viable bet vs a downtrending S.Carolina side that is 3-12 SU L/15 as a home dog. 

TENNESSEE is 18-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.

CFB team (S CAROLINA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins are 10-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.\

Play on Tennessee to cover 

Duke brought in Trevor Lawrences backup from Clemson (Chase Brice) in the offseason, and the offense has sputtered accumulating just  19 points and two ugly losses. The duke D, ha also been horrendous allowing 825 yards in the two defeats, and Im betting things wont get much better today vs Virginia.  

The Cavaliers have owned this series of late winning 5 straight SU/ATS and considering Dukes 1-7 SU record in their L/8 ACC battles, it wont be a hard decision to bet against them here this Saturday. 

Play on Virginia to cover 

The undefeated No. 14 Bearcats host the 22nd-ranked Black Knights on Saturday. Cincinnati has lost 15 of its last 16 games against ranked teams and today Im betting if they get a win, it wont come so easily. 

ARMY is 5-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI since 1992.

CFB  road team vs. the money line (ARMY) - allowing 200 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games against opponent after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 20-7 L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Army to cover 

Liberty has just 9 returning starters and lost their  leading rusher from last season , as well as their quarterback and top receiver in addition to its 3 top tacklers on D. I know Florida International also lost some experience from last season, but their defense now bolstered by the return of  of twin Dames brothers make them a tough group to move the ball against. In my opinion we have value with the underdog to cover. 

CFB road team (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games, game between two teams with 5 or less offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 32-8 ATS L/28 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Florida Int to cover 

Pittsburgh is 2-0 so far with wins vs Austin Peay and Syracuse. Meanwhile, Louisville was beaten by Miami Fl,last time out  but proved that they can score and are more than capable of hanging with the Panthers here today. Note: Pittsburgh as home favs , are less than a consistent bet as they sport a lowly  8-15-1 ATS L/24 record. Also Cardinal HC  Scott Satterfield is 17-4 SU when coming off a loss, including 8-0 ATS when off a double-digit ATS loss.

Play on the Louisville Cards to cover 

Georgia Tech as road favs did not sit well with me  knowing the school is just 2-7 ATS in their last nine away  trips when favored.  GTech is up-trending but laying wood with them on the road is not a recipe for success this early in their development. I know Syracuse is a side that no one loves these days, but now in desperation mode Dino Babers Orange Im betting come out here and leave everything on the field and get us the cover. 

Syracuse has covered 3 of their L/4 at home as 7 or more point dogs. 

CFB team (GEORGIA TECH) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 10+ PPG, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored are 4-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Syracuse to cover 

Auburn has owned this overall series but have not played each other  since 2015 . Dating back to  2009 these teams have played 3 times.  Kentucky's last victory in this series in 2009 ended  a 15-game winning streak in the series for the Tigers. Both games played since that game were decided by a field goal and Im betting on another close affair here. I know Auburn is a top tier SEC team, but Bob Stoops group is ascending quickly and after looking at their recruiting class could be on the verge of something big. 

Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.Wildcats are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.

Play on Kentucky to cover

Midd Tenn State looked bad in its first two games of the season, while 2-0 UTSA has looked very good converting on 11 of 11 red zone opportunities. With these sides operating at the opposite  end of the performance spectrum its an easy decision for me to take the hungrier uptrending side playing at home. Key will be a Road runners ground game thats cranking out  5.6 ypc. 

CFB  home team vs. the money line (UTSA) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, returning 8+ offensive starters against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 26-4 L/5 seasons with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at 17. 

CFB home team (UTSA) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, with 5 defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season is 30-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate.

Play on UTSA to cover 

 Wake Forest got blasted last week  37-13 vs Clemson , and despite of the result played decently and now have a game under their belts. . This  will the  opener  for North Carolina State after having to cancel their  Virginia Tech tilt on Sept. 5 due to Covid problems. Wake Forest in game time experience will have an edge here today vs a Wolfpack side that they have beaten 3 straight times SU. 

Wake Forest HC Dave Clawson i in conference games in his career,   5-0 ATS as a underdog of 3 or less points. 

CFB Road underdogs (WAKE FOREST) - in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games, returning an inexperienced QB and 5 or less offensive starters are 39-12 L/28 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Forgive me if I dont buy into the Miami  hype. Ya the Canes took game 1 of their season against UAB , but make no mistake the uptrending Cardinal are a much more potent opponent than they faced last week and in their own diggs in front of 18000 fans Im betting Louisville take control of this game and get the cover. Note The Cardinal also have the added motivation of revenge for a 52-27 loss to Miami last season. 
 

UM is 2-8 SU and 2-7-1 ATS L/10 as a dog in road openers. Louisville is 5-1 ATS L/6 in this series.

NCAAF home team vs. the money line (LOUISVILLE) - after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game, returning 8+ offensive starters against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 32-7 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with the average margin clicking in at +19.8 ppg. 

Play on the Louisville Cardinal to cover 

UL-Monroe had their butts handed to them in a  37-7 loss at Army last week. While  Texas State  lost in OT by a  51-48 count  to UTSA. I know the Warhawks did not look good, but Army looks explosive and must not be disrespected . With that said, despite of Texas State looking much improved this season, that OT game last week will have them in a letdown spot . Note: The Warhawks have won 4 straight tilts vs   UTSA Bobcats who have dropped 6 straight road games, 8 of their last 9 vs. FBS schools, and 5 straight overall. Texas State is just  2-11 overall  vs. FBS teams under HC Jake Spivital and are fade material this week and 1-13 L/14 as visitors. 

Play on UL Monroe to cover

  Duke lost by 14-points last week at Notre Dame and looked very average the entire time vs a Irish squad that looked like they had alot of rust.  Today against new HC Jeff Hafley's BC Im betting things wont come much easier. The Golden Eagles return 9    starters on a defense that is up trending in my rankings .  I know the BC  offense no longer has  RB A.J. Dillon   and QB Anthony Brown in the lineup, but  they look good with  QB Phil Jurkovec in  from Notre Dame.  He will operate behind a big strong O-line that must be respected. 

Duke is 0-13 ATS as conference home favs of 17 points or less. Eagles are 11-1 ATS as road dogs of 10 or less points. The visitor in this series has cashed 4 straight times.

CFB Home favorites (DUKE) - after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game, with an inexperienced QB as starter, in the first month of the season are 11-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

Play on Boston College to cover 

No.\11 ranked OSU is an explosive side behind RB Chubba Hubbard , WR Tylan Wallace , QB Spencer Sanders  and enter this season with a huge amount of experience as 18 returning starters  come back for what should be a peak year for the school. Meanwhile Tulsa, owns a D. that returns just 4 starters. That inexperienced D Im betting will get completely ripped apart today. Note: Oklahoma State HC Mike Gundy  in non- conference action is 12-0 ATS  L/12 overall.  

OKLAHOMA ST is 18-6 ATS  as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992.

 Golden Hurricane  have lost and failed to cover the last 4 meetings in this series  and have been horrendous in  Big 12 meetings losing 23 of 24 tilts straight up while covering just  6 times . 

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

Both these teams up-trended last season behind new coaches.  This is a  rematch from last year’s 38-21 U of L victory vs WKU   in Nashville.  It must be noted that the Hilltoppers owns a  5-0-1 ATS Game One record and have cashed  9 of their L/12 ATS  as dogs of 12 or more points, and are a profitable  8-3 ATS with non-conference revenge. Meanwhile,  the Cardinal are 0-4 ATS as hosts vs a side with  non-conference revenge, and a lowly 2-7 ATS  as chalk  of  11  or more points. . Louisville is  just 1-9 ATS as DD home fav  against opposition  that won 5 or more games  last season.

The Hilltoppers' defense features defensive end DeAngelo Malone, the 2019 Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year. Malone helped the Hilltoppers limit opponents to 337.8 yards per game last season, ranking No. 30 nationally. Im betting on this veteran group to key on D, and for them to factor hugely into us getting  the cover. 

Western Kentucky to cover 

The Ramblin’ Wreck, go into this game against Florida State having now  covered six straight in this series, and have a recent history of road dog success in ACC tilts recording a  5-1-2 ATS mark in their last eight tilts. Georgia Tech returns 19 starters from last years sub par season, but after changing up their system from pound the ball on the ground football to run and gun football, Im betting their now more experienced and ready to uptrend vs a Florida State side, that still does not instill confidence after a 6-7 season last year. FLORIDA ST is 1-9 ATS  when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Georgia tech to cover 

The Texas State offense might have struggled late in their 31-24 loss to SMU, but it pounded out five yards per carry.  Calvin Hill ran for 100 yards and Im betting on more of that today behind a offense that will have the rust off. Meanwhile, the D gave up 544 yards of offense and UTSA also has the guns to do some offensive damage here in this spot totals play that projects a score in the high 50s.  

TEXAS ST is 22-9 OVER  after playing a non-conference game since 1992 with a combined average of 62.8 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Kansas State is in a rebuilding zone with their offense , as their entire offensive line from last  year is gone with only three returning  Offensive starters in the lineup . Meanwhile, Arkansas State has almost their entire lineup back on  offense. Arkansas state showed their fortitude in a loss to Memphis to start their season, by a 37-24 count and will now not have to deal with rust like KState. Anderson is 15-6 ATS  when the total is between 49.5 and 56 as the coach of ARKANSAS ST. Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. S-Belt.

Play on Arkansas State to cover 

UAB has already played one game, putting up 45 points in a victory vs C.Arkansas and that is big factor here tonight against a higher tier team that has some rust , and that looked flat at the end of late season losing 3 straight. With only 13000 ppl expected home field advantage wont be a factor here. Canes Diaz is just 2-7 ATS as a favorite, including 0-5 ATS when laying 8 or more points. 
 

 HC Clark is 18-7 ATS  in the first half of the season as the coach of UAB.

Play on UAB to cover 

Nothing comes easy for UTEPs football program as is evident by  an 11-game losing streak and a current 2-34 SU run. Seeing them as TD favs did not sit well with me , even though they are playing lower tier competition.With that said, Im betting on a   Lumberjacks side that return a solid core on offense at key skill positions against a UTEP side that just does not have a tradition of winning. 

Play on SFA to cover 

These are two explosive offensive teams who were on great runs to end last season clash today on a tilt that Im betting will be much closer than the linesmakers estimate . Arkansas State has returning starters in key offensive categories, and even have their OC back. Memphis also has key guys back on offence, but new play callers on the sidelines, and one key absence ,Kenneth Gainwell (2000 all purpose yards, 16 TDS) out of the backfield which could be an issue here early on for the Tigers . 

CFB road team vs. the money line (ARKANSAS ST) - pathetic defense from last season - allowed 450 or more total yards/game, with 9 or more offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 24-12. L/28 seasons for a 63% conversion rate which gives credence to to spread bet here getting points. 

Play on Arkansas State to cover 

The Knights are replacing some key  weapons, on both sides of the ball, and the defense is looking vulnerable,I know Middle Tenn State did not play. well last season, but they do have some key returning starters on offense back and should be able to make Army work hard here.  Army as favorites are  just 18-33-2  since 2005, failing to cover by just under three points per game on average and in  season openers, the Cadets own a money burning 4-11 ATS (26.6%) mark. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIDDLE TENN ST) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 35-9 L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Middle Tenn State 

Southern Miss has had to replace key components of its D, this off season, and already were having problems with their pass defence  last season ranking a  lowly 122nd in the nation. What Im betting on here tonight id for the South Alabama to take advantage of the Golden Eagles depleted secondary , and keep this game closer than the linesmakers predict. 

S ALABAMA is 19-8 ATS  in road games in the first half of the season since 1992.

Play on South Alabama to cover 

Play on UAB to cover 

 The  Austin Peay  Governors are being underestimated here today. Austin Peay core for success is a ultra physical defense, having allowed only 104 yards per game last year while forcing nearly a fumble per game . Also last year when they played Central Arkansas the Governors  dominated the line of scrimmage for most of the game.  However, they  allowed two big plays late in the game and eventually lost.In last years tilt, of 15 total drives Central Arkansas  they only got into the red zone  twice, with one of the attempt starting at the Austin Peay 21-yard line. This year despite of new faces on the sidelines and under center and at the running back position Austin Peay are talented enough to hang here, and Im betting new HC Marquase Lovings formations and under rated coaching ability will get us  cover in this spot. Note: There are also expected Thunder showers today and some wind , which will greatly help Austin Peay get us a cover.

Austin Peay to cover 

I look at this game, and see an experienced tested  championship team like Clemson, going against an upstart LSU team that has had a tremendous success in the short term behind a very talented group of players, but lacks experience in big games. That experience and Clemsons superior defence Im betting wins out here today. Advantage Clemson. 

CLEMSON is 7-0 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season.CLEMSON is 7-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game this season. CLEMSON is 8-0 ATS  in road games after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons (Clemson 40.9 opp 11.1)

Swinney is 15-3 ATS  vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return as the coach of CLEMSON. 

Play on Clemson to cover  

Two top tier football programs with hardcore discipline go head to head in the FCS championship game. This game sees North Dakota States 33-1 SU play off record on the line . ( interestingly enough the only loss came against James Madison).  Bottom line is Im betting the total is a better investment option than what my projections estimate is a coin flip game. 

I cannot see either quarterback carving up the others secondary, and I also expect for both running games to falter against staunch front 7s. Im betting both sides have moderate grinding success moving the ball between the 30s but when it comes to finishing drives  we will see what hardcore defence is all about. Both these sides are tough as nails and rarely make mistakes, which bolsters my under wager . 

Play UNDER 

LendingTree Bowl - Ladd Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL

Miami O offence just cannot generrate consistent flow and the Redhawks rank outside the top 100 in quarterback passer rating, line yards and finishing drives. The RedHawks offence or lack ther off will go against a   UL Lafayette group that ranks top 20 in defensive finishing drives, which is not a good omen for ouptut conversion rate when entering the red zone. Something Im betting the Redhawks dont do much of today aqnyway. On the other side, of the ball, Miami Os defence is very capable and physical for a MAC team and have the ability to slow down the Cajuns explosive attack. Note: Miami 0 is ranked 26th in the nation defensive havoc. 

Both punt units rank to 20 in the nation, so field postion will also hinder offences if expected averages continue --which the odds say are highly likey. 

What Im betting on here is a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. 

In Miami Os last L/12 non conference games a combined average of 51.1 have been scored.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI OHIO) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 38-10 UNDER L/27 seasomns for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Armed Forces Bowl - Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

After a very strong start to their season Tulane fell apart down the stretch losing 5 of their L/6 and are on a 3 game losing streak. Their demise has a lot to do with the disintegration of their  offensive line coupled with the struggles of  LSU transfer QB Justin McMillan, who was sacked 18 times  during that ugly  6-game run. Here against a Southern Miss D,  ranked No. 36 in the country in total defense (350.3 ypg). Im betting the Wave scoring output will once again be curtailed . Meanwhile,The Golden Eagles have relied heavily on their passing  game this season as . Southern Miss ranked among the top 25 nationally and led Conference USA in passing offense (288.6 ypg) during the regular season,  and today Im betting on them hitting enough explosive plays to get us the promised land and get us the cover.

Play on Southern Miss to cover

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID

The Wolf Pack played in the 2006 and 2008 bowls, losing to Miami and Maryland, respectively. The Bobcats played in the 2011 bowl, beating Utah State. 

This Ohio football  program has  a viable strong history and culture under Solich that has an explosive offense and that Im betting will be the difference maker here today.

Add to that Nevada will be without key starters on the defensive side of the ball  for a brawl they had with UNLV in their last game of the season and have a new defensive coordinator for this game, which is not a good omen for a  Wolfpack side that   ranks 116th in defensive rushing success rate and 115th in line yards.  With that said, Im betting on Solich pounding the rock on the ground today for big gains and score behind Rourke and for Nevadas inconsistent offence to have issues repsonding.

  Solich is 9-2 ATS  after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games as the coach of OHIO U.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - excellent offensive team ( 440  or more YPG) against a poor defense (390 to 440 YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 38-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Ohio . to cover 

Indiana must not be underestimated here behind an  offense that ranked No. 14 in offensive SP+.  This Hoosiers side , looked very viable against a top tier opponent in Penn State in mid-November and just missed on a victory at Michigan State when the Spartans were ranked No. 25 in late September. This is a good team, and despite of Tennessee turning a corner and up-trending Im betting they hit a disrespected buzz saw here today and end up on the wrong side of the ATS sheet. Note:  Vols Wide receiver Jauan Jennings a future NFLer in the  will sit the first half with a  suspension from a sideline altercation against Vanderbilt, that Im betting will have Tennessee starting slow offensively. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - off a home win against a conference rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 11-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

All-American LT Andrew Thomas not suiting up for Georgia and  starting RT Isaiah Wilson also out out as they prepare for the NFL draft as well as  starting guard Ben Cleveland  who was ruled academically ineligible.It does end there as the Dawgs will also be  without its top two receivers a Lawrence Cager and Dominick Blaylock  as they deal with injuries. Georgias key RBs could also be out as leading rusher DeAndre Swift,  is banged up and hobbled and could easily just try to get healthy before the  NFL Draft and skip here or see very limited action. Add to that  James Cook,  is in trouble with the law for a having a gun in his car, and you have an array of Georgia Bulldogs  out or missing and team with very little motivation taking the field today against a hard working Baylor team, that has a coach on the sidelines in Matt Rhule who has thrived in the underdog role for bettors, going 33-15 ATS getting points and 30-14-1 ATS in neutral site tilts . Some times Bowl games are all about motivation that off sets some talent issues. Kirby Smarts group is a team that could easily just be going through the motions here today, while Baylor will be sky high and ready to make a mark and get this program back on the College football map again.Per Rhule, he will have his entire team at his disposal, including starting quarterback Charlie Brewer, who left the Big 12 championship game on Dec. 7 with a concussion.

"Our guys value the opportunity to compete. I think they value the opportunity to compete against one of the best teams in the country," Rhule said. "What a great measuring stick for us as a program, our players. And we have a lot of guys that -- everyone is going to play."

Rhule is 10-1 ATS vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game in all games he has coached since 1992. Rhule is 11-1 ATS  after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992

BAYLOR is 7-1 ATS  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game this season. BAYLOR is 11-3 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. 

Advantage Baylor plus the points 

Rose Bowl - Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA

 I was surprised to see this line float into the FG range with  Wisconsin, as according to my projections the underdog Oregon Ducks were the slightly superior side and matchup well against a team like Wisconsin that uses their running attack as a key to controlling time of possession . I know many pundits have not given the Ducks D, the kudos they deserve this season, because of perception . The Ducks are perceived as just an explosive offensive team, but the real truth is that they are balanced and have shown themselves resilient defensively holding 6 teams to season low offensive yards output.Key here today will be pressure on Whiskeys QB- look for  Pac-12 Defensive Freshman of the Year Kayvon Thibodeaux (team-high 14.0 tackles for loss, 9.0 sacks) to pace an Oregon defense  ranked No. 11 in the country with 41 sacks.

QUOTE: "Between Oregon and Ohio State, they both have amazing athletes on the field that get after the quarterback and make big plays," Badgers quarterback Jack Coan told reporters. "They're an amazing defense." END QUOTE:

OREGON is 19-8 ATS L/27 in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game. OREGON is 45-14 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game and is 32-9 ATS  after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. 

It must also be noted that Mario Cristobal’s Ducks  are a bankroll expanding  8-0  ATS as underdogs  versus the Big 10 opposition, and 11-2 SU and 12-1 ATS as dogs with rest. 

CFB Bowl pups with 17 or more returning starters from last year returning if they  won 8 or less games,  and are coming off an ATS win of 3-plus points, are 15-1 ATS since 1990.  (Oregon fits this description)

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WISCONSIN) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 32-74 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oregon to cover 

Mac Jones,  Alabamas new  No. 1 quarterback , has completed 69.8 percent of his 166 pass attempts, with 11 touchdowns, after taking over from the injured Tua Tagovailoa .Jones has dynamic receivers to target, including DeVonta Smith (65 catches, 1,200 yards, 13 TDs) and Jerry Jeudy (71 catches, 959 yards, 9 TDs) and is more than capable of helping his team pile up points vs a Michigan team that showed themselves defensively porous at times against top tier teams like Ohio State this season.( Ohio State smashed the Wolverines by a 57-29 count). Meanwhile, Michigan can also fire back with some offensive firepower of their own,  with Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson who has thrown 22 touchdown passes and scored five more on the ground this season. I expect some big plays and scores by the Wolf man and crew vs one of Alabamas most mediocre defences in years. LSU pounded Alabama for 46 points in 46-41 win towards the end of this season.  Truth is I smell fire works about to be lit here today and a game that features alot of points . MICHIGAN is 6-0 OVER  vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 63.9 ppg scored. ALABAMA is 11-2 OVER  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 66.7 ppg scored.

CFB  Neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (ALABAMA/MICHIGAN) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 30-11 OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

Alamo Bowl - Alamodome - San Antonio, TX

HC Herman of Texas may not have a great overall record with this program of late, but what he does well is to get his teams to play tough competition at a top tier level as is evident by cashing 15 of his L/20 as an underdog. Im betting on Texas here today vs a Utah team that was humbled in their last game of the season vs Oregon .Because of that mentioned debacle the Utes missed the play offs and may not be as motivated as need be here vs a Texas side that has won their L/3 Bowl appearances.

Utah will be at a disadvantage with All-Pac-12 safety Julian Blackmon (knee) and cornerback Jaylon Johnson (NFL draft) both ruled out. So Sam Ehlinger should have success behind what is a healthy Longhorn offence, that will have senior wideout Collin Johnson (hamstring) and junior tight end Cade Brewer (ankle)in the lineup and ready to play.

TEXAS is 17-4 ATS L/21 after allowing 375 or more passing yards in their last game  which happened in their last game of the regular season in a 49-24 victory vs Texas Tech. 

Play on Texas to cover 

Arizona Bowl - Arizona Stadium - Tucson, AZ

Georgia state according to my power rankings matches up very well vs this punchless Wyoming football program that will have problems taking advantage of a sometimes porous GState D.  On the flip side,  Georgia State averages 32.5 PPG and is ranked  No. 14 in the nation with their ground attack and  27th in total offense and should do more than enough damage to secure a cover here . Note:Sun Belt   conference teams have been cash cows  in bowl games since 2013  going 26-9  straight up and SBC bowl pups  of  3  or more points are a bankroll expanding  11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS and get the nod again this New Years eve.

Georgia State to cover 

 Liberty Bowl - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

The Kansas State Wildcats and  Navy Midshipman are not quite identical but   they do both like to dominate time of possession. The Wildcats rank fourth in the country in that stat, holding the ball for an average of 34:16 per game while  Navy owns a  33:14 time of possession . That means the Mids can count on getting fewer snaps then usual , as is the case when Army goes against Navy. With that said, Im betting on a grinding game that has both sides ground attack eating up precious clock time and keeping this combined score on the low side of the total. 

KANSAS ST is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 47.1 ppg going on the board. 

NAVY is 33-15 UNDER  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game with a combined average of 45.7 ppg scored. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (NAVY) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 41-15 UNDER  L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (KANSAS ST) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 59-25 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Liberty Bowl - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

Navy triple option offence ranks no1. in the nation in rushing  and  they also own the   No. 2 Red Zone Offense. Your always going to get a great effort from a military teams, as is evident by Navys 5-0 ATS run  as a bowl favorite . Navy is not only hard working but very disciplined ranking No. 3 in nation with the least penalties. It must be noted that Military teams are 10-1 L/11 ATS as favorites of 7 or fewer points in Bowl games.

Kansas their opponent a team that lost 5 of 6 stats battles against Bowl teams might seem like a good matchup for the Middies, but despite of similar mind sets about running the ball and time of possession control , their actually not as cohesive or consistent as they seem as it must be noted that  the Wildcats rank No. 130 in Red Zone Defense. I know the  reputation of their current HC Chris Klieman (former North Dakota State super coach) but he lacks Bowl experience and that is going to be a detriment to him here today when this is all said and done. 

Tuesday’s Bowl tilt is about finishing their season with gusto for Navy. The Middies have a chance to tie the program record of 11 wins set in 2015 and end the year in the Associated Press rankings for just the third time in the past 56 years and Im betting on a humungous effort from them here today. 

. NAVY is 7-1 ATS  as a favorite this season. 

NAVY is 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse this season.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NAVY) - excellent passing team (8.3  or better PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (6.4-7.5 PY/Att.), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 36-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Play on Navy to cover 

Sun Bowl - Sun Bowl - El Paso, TX

Mike Norvell has left Memphis and is now the new HC at Florida State. He won't be on the sidelines today, butIm sure he is having an influence already which is a positive going into this Bowl game Meanwhile, this Sun Devils  program is missing some key players here today on offence which will hinder their ability to be offensively aggressive ie 1000 yard rusher  Running back Eno Benjamin, and a 1000 yard receiver in Brandon Aiyuk  who are out getting ready for the NFL draft. Add to that to tha the Devils t have a lousy ATS record as bowlers as is evident by a   0-7 ATS mark all tine in Bowl games   versus the ACC. Add to that  PAC 12 teams are  just. 2-20 ATS L/3 seasons in Bowl games  .  ARIZONA ST iw also s 0-6 ATS  as a favorite this season and are fade material here vs a FSU side feeling good about themselves at the moment behind a new mentor. 

Play on FSU 

"I think our guys know I plan on being here for a long time. I know what I have here. I love being here. I think we're building a championship program here." – UF head coach Dan Mullen on NFL rumors. 
( The core of this team looks towards the future with Mullens on the sidelines which is both a key mitigating and momentum based factor that has me supporting the Gators here today on a two TD line)

This team has come a long way over the last two seasons and are only getting better. Virginia is a fine football program, but their over matched here by an over powering SEC team , and as this game moves forward the Gators Im betting will run away with this. 

Play on Florida to cover 

Redbox Bowl - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Illinois when they faced a team similar to California in the regular season, saw a game that saw  them beat  Michigan State  37-34  on Nov. 9. Im betting the Illini  very capable offense to once again do some damage here today, while their sometimes porous D to part like Moses parting the Red Sea. It must be noted that Californias last 4 games, all saw a combined point total that eclipsed this number. My projections make this line Total closer to 47 thus giving us one possession value on the over. Note: HC Wilcox in in 36 lined games as the coach of CALIFORNIA has seen a combined average of 46.6 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Western Kentucky's offense is efficient and were uptrending towards the end of the season averaging more than 37.4 ppg in their L/3 tilts. The Hilltoppers are  led by running back Gaej Walker, who collected 1,115 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging nearly five yards per carry. Quarterback Ty Storey who started nine games at Arkansas last season before transferring , has completed 70.7 percent of his 294 passes for 2,209 yards, 12 touchdowns and matches up well vs W.Michigans inconsistent secondary and a D that has allowed an average of 36.5 ppg on the road this season.  Meanwhile, Western Michigan is also very capable offensively behind Running back LeVante Bellamy who has accumulated  1,412 rushing yards and is tied for the national lead with 23 rushing touchdowns, and  Quarterback Jon Wassink who was a third-team All-MAC selection, throwing for 2,904 yards, with 19 touchdowns. Western Michigan in games played on turf have scored an average of 36 ppg. Everything points to a combined score that eclipses this total. 

W KENTUCKY is 17-6 OVER L/23 after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins with a combined average of 69.8 ppg scored. 

W MICHIGAN in their L/6  road games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 70.8 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

Projected score: Clemson 31 Ohio State  27

CFB Playoff - Fiesta Bowl - State Farm Stadium - Glendale, AZ

Plenty off offence here, but what stands out about both Clemson and Ohio State is what amounts to be some of the physical defences in the nation.The Tigers are ranked  first in scoring defense (10.6) and first in total defense (244.7). haven't allowed more than 20 points in any game this season and Ohio State ranks third in scoring defense (12.5) and second in total defense in the nation. With that said, Im betting we have a rockem sockem nasty in the trenches defensive slugfest today and what could easily be the national championship game. 

CLEMSON is 50-21 UNDER L/71 when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) with a combined average of 49.1 ppg scored. CLEMSON is 6-0 UNDER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.9 ppg scored. 

OHIO ST is 30-16 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 42.6 ppg scored. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (CLEMSON) - in non-conference games, with 8 offensive starters returning are 48-15 L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 CFB Playoff - Peach Bowl - Georgia Dome - ATLANTA, GA

 LSU  is third in the country in scoring (47.8) and first in yards (554.3)..The Sooners rank just behind the Tigers with averages of 43.2 points and 554.2 yards.The  Sooners  have scored 28 or more points in each of their last 51 games. 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (LSU) - in a game involving two dominant teams (out-gaining opponents by 100+ YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 36-10 OVERv L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Neutral field teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (LSU/OKLAHOMA) - when playing on a Saturday are 30-10 OVER L/27 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Camping World Bowl - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

Notre Dame owns a top tier offence butI Iowa State  behind quarterback Brock Purdy, who completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 3,760 yards, 27 touchdowns are no pushovers and deserve respect as underdogs in a neutral field environment. HC Kelly of Notre Dame  said could not afford to take Iowa State for granted. "This is a really good football team that could easily be 11-1," Kelly said. "We know what we're getting."Explosive offenses in the Big 12, really solid defensively, physical football team, well coached -- Matt Campbell is an outstanding football coach. It's going to be a good football team we're playing." I agree with Kellys assessments, and wont be surprised by a SU upset victory by the Cylcones here today. 

IOWA ST is 9-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or more ) over the last 3 seasons. IOWA ST is 12-3 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. NOTRE DAME is 0-7 ATS L/7 in road games after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games .

Iowa State is 31-13 ATS L/44 as a dog. 

Play on Iowa State to cover 

Cotton Bowl - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Memphis seems to be a popular pick here by some pundits, but with HC Norvell  no longer on th sidelines for Memphis after taking the HC job at Florida State Im betting his former team may not have the needed guidance to deal with a top tier Penn State team that has tangled with some of the best teams in the country.You have to remember  Penn State  made Ohio State work hard for a 28-17 win in 2nd last game of the season. The way I lookout this is, if Memphis had some problems dealing with Cincinnatis D, they are really going to have issues taking on what Im betting is the most physical group they have faced all season long here vs the Nitanny Lions. Like the old saying goes, offence gets you to a championship but defensewins those big games. The good thing for Penn State is that they both have a  upper shelf D, to go a long with a under rated offence and Im betting they get the job done here today vs the underdog that is loved by the public because of their prolific scoring abilities. 

Penn Statest wo losses have come on the road by a combined 16 points to then-No. 17 Minnesota and No. 2 Ohio State.

Play on Penn State to cover 

Texas Bowl - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

Oklahoma State's offense features the nation's leading rusher in sophomore back Chuba Hubbard. He ran for 1,936 yards on 309 carries (6.8 yards per carry) in the regular season. So Im betting they pound away on the ground today, and eat up clock time. Meanwhile, the Texas A&M D, allowed 12 rushing touchdowns all year, so output projections are low according to my estimates. The Aggies have played one of the more difficult schedules in the country. And have  battled Auburn, Alabama and LSU  and Georgia, so slowing down Oklahoma State offence will not be an extremely difficult task, while their own offence has been less than cohesive this season. This combination of projected scenarios makes for a combined score that stays on the low side of the total.

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TEXAS A&M) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 29-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TEXAS A&M) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 27-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OKLAHOMA ST) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 41-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Pinstripe Bowl - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY

MSU has gone against some of the best teams in the country this season and are more than prepared to take on Wake Forest in this Bowl tilt. Dantonio already owns school records for most bowl wins (five) and bowl appearances (12), including a school-record four-game bowl winning streak with victories in the 2011 Outback Bowl vs. No. 18 Georgia, 2012 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl over TCU, 2014 Rose Bowl against No. 5 Stanford, and 2015 Cotton Bowl vs. No. 4 Baylor. The Spartans defeated No. 18 Washington State, 42-17, in the 2017 Holiday Bowl.

MSU has won five of its last seven bowl games.

Michigan State D, will out perform Wakes viable offence. After facing the likes of Penn State , Michigan, and Wisconsin the Spartans are more than ready for what comes their way here at Yankee Stadium.

CFB team (MICHIGAN ST) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in December games are 44-17 ATS L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan State to cover 

 Military Bowl - Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - Annapolis, MD

Mack Brown  has moved North Carolina forward since taking over as a coach and alosmot pulley's doff an upset vs Clemson earlier this season and  now gets a Bowl Game to preview their ascension..  Despite of this Im still not 100% sold on the Tar Heels and recently the  ACC in Bowl games have failed to cash 4 straight as chalk against  the AAC. Also  Brown himself is just   1-7 ATS as a  a HC as a bowl favorite of 4 or more points. Meanwhile, Temple  is a team that must not be underestimated in their tenacity and are 5-1 ATS as an underdog while  winning four times SU. The Temple offense was serviceable at 27.4 PPG (though 4-points below what their foes allowed on the season). The Owls defense is their strength and  allowed just  23.4 PPG and were No. 4 in Red Zone Defense this season and will be the difference maker today.  TEMPLE is 14-3 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Temple to cover 

Motivation might be a issue here for Pittsburgh, but their defence is head and shoulders the superior side here today vs an atrocious E. Michigan D. I know the Panthers offence has taken some time to jell cohesively behind a new pass happy system, but today they should be able to get things going vs a below average secondary and a Eagles D, that rank 129th in both Line Yards and Stuff Rate. Note:MAC bowlers are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS as underdogs of 8 or more points.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover