Looking at this game in a casual way will have many assuming that Nebraska will blowout N.Illinois  today in Lincoln. But N.Illnois has travelled well in the past and will not be easily intimidated by a team, that gave up 42 points to Oregon last week, and 36 points to lower tier  Arkansas State the week before. Nebraska was also hypoed for that last game vs the Ducks and will be in a natural let down spot  here. There are some definite defensive issues that have yet to be addressed , by the Huskers and I expect a Northern Illinois side that is averaging 433 yards of offense this season with a pretty even split  with their  ground and aerial attack behind  QB Daniel Santacaterina to do enough damage to stay within  the number.  It must also be noted that Northern Illinois is allowing only 17 PPG to opposing teams this season on the defensive side of the ball and must not be underestimated in their ability to slow down the home team here and make this closer than expected.
 
  N ILLINOIS is 9-1 ATS L/10  after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins.N ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after scoring 37 points or more last game .N ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. N ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game.N ILLINOIS is 37-19 ATS  L/56 as a road underdog.

 Play on Northern Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection

Everyone and his dog loves, the UCLA Bruins after their amazing comeback against Texas A&M in their opener winning a 45-44 freak show and followed that up with a easy win vs Hawaii and their dysfunctional defense. But now against a Memphis  program that has proven they can take down big programs in the recent past, I'm betting things won't come so easily for the Bruins as they now go on the road travelling from west to east , which is never an easy trek, especially with an early start time to deal with . The Bruins did not have much of an emotional letdown after their big comeback win in their opener, but now on a delayed reaction basis I expect they will deflate. It must be noted that the /Tigers are 16-4 in their L/20 home games SU, and are 15-3 ATS as home dogs facing a team off  consecutive wins including a perfect 6-0 ATS record vs non conference foes under the same perimeters. Also with UCLA looking ahead to the PAC 12 opener with Stanford, their attention won't be completely on this game. Note: (The Bruins are 0-6 ATS L/6 before facing Stanford)

UCLA is 1-8 ATS  L/9 after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

CFB Road favorites like UCLA - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 84% for bettors.

Play on the Memphis Tigers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Kansas lost last week to Central Michigan at home as favorites. Key mistakes finally saw them lose by a 45-27 loss in a game that was closer than the final score might indicate. Now this week as dogs on the road vs another MAC team I'm betting they have a good chance at covering. With Ohio looking forward to a big revenger against a strong E.Michigan team next week, I expect Kansas to catch Ohio napping like they did last season when they pulled off an upset win against the Texas Longhorns. Kansas has cashed their L/2 against MAC opponents as underdogs.

Play on Kansas to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Falcons (1-0) bring a seven-game winning streak into The Big House to play Michigan this week. Meanwhile, Harbaugh's Wolverines are 2-0 and looking strong. But Air Force behind their option offense, provides big problems , yes even for good coaches, especially when these top coaches have not faced these types of attacks regularly. The Falcons know how to put up points in bunches, as they never scored fewer than 27 last season, when they finished 10-3 and beat South Alabama in the Arizona Bowl. They have exceeded the 40-point mark four times during their winning streak,, and will do some damage again today against Harbaughs tough D, making them viable underdogs in this spot. Note: Air Force has won six straight games against non-conference opponents and have cashed 4 straight on the road vs non conference opposition of 17 points or more. With Harbaugh eyeing his Big 10 opener against Purdue, I'm expecting the old ball coach won't have his full attention here. Michigan is 0-7 ATS L/7 before facing Purdue.

AIR FORCE is 20-8 ATS  L/28 after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game.MICHIGAN is 16-35 ATS  L/51 after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games .

CFB Home favorites like Micigan - off a home win by 17 points or more, in a game involving two teams who had good records (60% to 80%) from last season are 11-33 ATS L/44 for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection

Arizona beat N.Arizona in week 1 by a 62-24 count and then lost a hard fought 19-16 battle vs Houston last week. Meanwhile the UTEP Miners fell to 0-2 on the season after being crushed by the Rice Owls 31-14, this past Saturday. UTEP struggled offensively throughout the game which is not a good omen for their chances against a Arizona offense that will find this game like a walk in the park after facing a stout Cougars D last week. Note: UTEP has allowed an average of 43+ ppg in two tilts, and with a less than cohesive offense, that is now without  key RB Aaron Jones who declared for the NFL draft and left the program. , things won't get better for a side that is ranked 126th in the nation in offense.  
 

UTEP is 1-8 ATS L/9 in September games with the average score ringing in at 43.1 to 19.7 ppg for a average margin of defeat coming by 23.4 ppg. UTEP is 2-11 ATS  L/13 in the first half of the season  with their opponents averaging 40.1 ppg and with them scoring just 17.4 ppg.

Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Arizona  - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 43-14 ATS dating back 24 seasons.

Play on Arizona to cover 1 unit reg selection

South Florida has not looked all that good in their first two games , maybe its the Charlie Strong effect, just maybe the Bulls over achieved last season, and now we expect more of them. In their first game, they were down to San Jose State 16-0 before coming back for the win, and vs Stony Brook were down 10-7 at the half before storming back. Last week their game against UConn was cancelled and instead of the rest doing them well, I'm betting it makes them rustier than they have already looked. Meanwhile, Illinois looks to be making progress under the tutelage of Lovie Smith, and must not be disrespected here in this spot. It must be noted that Illinois has covered 4 straight in their L/4 as 14 point or more dogs to a non conference foe. Meanwhile South Florida is 0-5 SU in the programs history vs the Big 10 with ACC teams going just 3-23 vs the Big 10.

CFB road team like Illinois - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 126-72 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week New Mexico came out flat against New Mexico state and fell behind by a 30-5 count, before coming back with 23 4th Quarter points, and than failing to tie it on a two point conversion. It was a valiant effort by a decent team, and now they will be primed to come out here , and upend a Boise State football program off a heart breaking OT loss to Washington State loss last time out and now in a huge emotional let down situation. With Boise State just 1-10-1 ATS L/12 at home as favs, and New Mexico showing heart as DD, conference dog going 12 -2 ATS L/14, we have value here . I know that Boise State whooped the Lobos last season at visitors to Albuquerque, by a 49-21 count, but New Mexico's HC Bob Davie is 11-2 ATS as a DD MWC underdog with revenge.  With that said, I'm betting on the Lobos staying close enough to cover here, and for the Broncos Bryan Harsin to fall to 0-8 ATS in his L/8 conference home games.

NEW MEXICO is 12-2 ATS  L/14 off an upset loss as a home favorite. NM has covered 3 of their L/4 visits to the Blue Carpet.

CFB Home favorites like Boise State  - in conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning are 49-93 ATS dating back 5 seasons.

Play on the New Mexico Lobos to cover 1 unit reg selection

San Diego State must not be disrespected here vs a Arizona State team that looked weak defensively in week 1 vs New Mexico State, winning 37-31 but were outscored 18-7 in the last quarter. The Aztecs  have  won 22 of its last 25 games SU. while Arizona State has 1 victory over a team with a above .500 record since beating rival Arizona on November 21, 2015.

Rocky Long is 5-2 as a dog vs PAC12 opponents, while HC Graham of the Sun Devils is 1-4 ATS L/5 vs the Mountain West.

SAN DIEGO ST is 10-2 ATS  after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game.

Take the points with San Diego State 1 unit reg selection

Stanford (1-0) well rested and fresh returns to action from a one-week layoff after opening the season Aug. 26 in Sydney, Australia, with a explosive one sided beat down of Rice. The Cardinal seeks to win a fourth straight against the Trojans (1-0). Meanwhile, USC had some early problems against Western Michigan but pulled away late for a DD win. Their D, especially the run D, looked a little porous allowing a whopping 263 yards and will be part of what I'm betting will be their failure to cover tonight vs Stanford.

 The Stanford Cardinal have a defense that I'm betting rivals that of Alabama. Call me crazy for saying that , but this group is razor sharp and extremely physical and will be the difference maker here today vs the USC Trojans.

Winning on the road is a key theme for the Cards.The Cardinal have taken 3 straight from the Trojans, and 7 of the last 9.Dating to 2007, the Cardinal have won four of five games at the Coliseum. USC is undefeated at the Coliseum since Helton took over as head coach midway through the 2015 season -- but also winless against Stanford at 0-2.

Play on the Stanford Cardinal to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both teams are off lopsided easy wins in their week 1 matchups. Auburn lost a hard fought tilt to the Clemson last season by a 19-13, count , but I' betting their even better this season, and  are going to be hyped up about taking down the defending champs and get revenge for their loss to  last season. I'm betting that this game will be hard fought and that getting points will be golden for a team I have pegged as the most improved in the SEC this season.

AUBURN is 13-4 ATS  L/17 in road games after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards.AUBURN is 34-19 ATS  after gaining 275 or more rushing yards. Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games

CFB Road underdogs like Auburn - after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 40-14 ATS for a 74% conversion rate for bettors dating back 10 seasons. Also CFB  Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Clemson - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 38-12 ATS for a 76% conversion rate for bettors over a 10 year period. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Auburn - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season are 40-11 ATS for a 78% conversion rate for bettors dating back 25 seasons.

Play on Auburn to cover 1 unit reg selection

Nevada is getting a lot of accolades for staying close in a game vs Northwestern last week even though, their defense allowed over 500 yards and the home team to convert 26 first downs. If they are as porous this week, as last, which I think they will be, I'm betting their in big trouble vs the MACs best team. Last week against Northwestern the Wolfpack  only controlled the ball offensively  for just  21 minutes and turned the ball over twice during that game. Needless to say, from my standpoint , Nevada's performance was more smoke and mirrors than a top tier effort like it was being painted. Meanwhile, Toledo despite of starting slowly last week in a win, looked to put things together in the 2nd half, on route to a  blow out 47-13 victory and will now use that momentum to take down a over rated opponent in this spot. The Rockets had 24 first downs and 553 total yards in the game. Rinse in repeat here for a DD margin of victory.

Toledo 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.TOLEDO is 6-0 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons.TOLEDO is 10-2 ATS L/12 after playing a game at home.TOLEDO is 21-6 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more.

Play on Toledo to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Rebels fell to Howard as a 45-point favorite at home last time out, the worst point spread loss in history. Meanwhile, Idaho took  an FCS opponent, notching a win vs  Sacramento, 28-6.  As far as the Howard/UNLV games goes, Howard must not be disrespected, as their HC Mike London  won a National championship with Richmond, and was able to recruit a very strong QB in Caylin Newton who is the brother of Cam Newton. The  UNLV D, was ugly, and the team on a whole. was caught looking ahead to greener pastures, which was in hindsight a mistake, that now has them  embarrassed and ready for redemption this week in Idaho. UNLV can score in bunches, and that is why they have a chance this week to stay very close. Last season these teams played each other tough, with Idaho pulling off a 33-30 win, and I'm expecting another hard fought battle this week, with the points in my humble betting opinion ending be golden.

IDAHO is 0-7 ATS  L/7 when the total is greater than or equal to 70.IDAHO is 8-20 ATS  L/28  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. HC Petrino is 6-15 ATS  L/21 after playing a non-conference game .

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Idaho - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 14-41 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.CFB  Road underdogs like UNLV  - after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 40-14 ATS L/54 opportunities for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UNLV to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last year TCU lost 41-38 to Arkansas in Double OT as 10 point home favs, despite of out stating the Hogs 572-403.  Now this season with revenge on board I expect Gary Andersons troops to be hell bent on laying down some pay back. I know Anderson and TCU had a losing season in their last campaign , but the two times he had losing seasons , he came back with 12 -1 and 11-1 marks. Last week they won 63-0 vs Jackson State and now come in rocking and rolling and in a vengeful mood. Note: Game 2 Chalk off a shut out win like TCU are 7-0 ATS L/7 winning every time by DDs.

Bielema is 0-6 ATS   in home games after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game which happened vs Florida A&M last week in a 49-7 win.

Play on TCU to cover 1 unit reg selection

Eastern Michigan enters this game off a 24-7 home win over Charlotte, while the Knights are off a 30-14 home loss to Washington. I was impressed by Rutgers ability to move the ball vs a top tier Washington football program last week. This week my own projections estimate that Rutgers will put 28+ points on the board vs Michigan, behind Louisville transfer,  QB Kyle Bolin  .

Last year E.Michigan allowed 29.8 ppg. E MICHIGAN is 8-1 OVER L/9 in road games when they allow 28 or more points with a combined average of 71.9 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Meanwhile, on the flip side, E.Michigan has shown the ability to score in bunches in the past,  behind  QB Brogan Roback who last year had  a viable season as he threw for 2694 yards with 18 TDs .  Last year Rutgers were smashed  for 264.2 ypg on the ground, which was 126th in the nation, and while some think they will be improved , I'm not one of them .  I'm betting E.Michigan does some damage this week, and both accumulate enough points to put this score over the listed total.

CFB Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 like Rutgers - off a home loss, first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games are 23-2 OVER dating back 10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection

Indiana showed me a lot , when they played one of the best teams in the nation (Ohio State) very tough, this past Thursday night and were actually tied in third quarter before things got away from them. After that major tune up against a top tier team, I'm betting this game against Virginia will be like a walk in the park.

Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

CFB home team like Virginia  - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning are just 15-45 for a go against conversion rate for a 74% for bettors. Also CFB home teams like Virginia  - terrible defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 6-22 SU during the L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover 1 unit reg selection

Western Michigan travelled out to the west coast last week to play the USC Trojans. New Head Coach Tom Lesters team played valiantly for a while, before getting beaten by 49-31 count . Now tired and in an emotional letdown scenario the Broncos, go against a DAntonio coached Michigan State team, that has a lot to prove after last seasons dismal results. The Spartans looked determined a 35-10 beat down of Bowling Green last week, and get the nod to bring home the cash to their backers this time around as well.

MICHIGAN ST is 26-9 ATS  after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game .

CFB Road underdogs like Western Michigan- after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game, with an inexperienced QB as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 18-46 ATS L/25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Mich State - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 34-10 ATS for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Mich State Spartans to cover 1 unit reg selection

Iowa defensively  smothered what was supposed to be a offensively explosive Wyoming offense last week in their first game a 24-3 win. Now here in week 2 I expect that same D, will stand tall and be the catalyst for a win in cover vs instate rivals Iowa State . Iowa has taken the two most recent meetings in this series conclusively by scores of 42-13 last season and 31-17 in 2015. I'm betting on another easy win here today.

IOWA is 17-5 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less and  8-1 ATS  L/9  in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest.

CFB home teams like Iowa State - terrible defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 6-22 SU L//28.

Play on Iowa to cover 1 unit reg selection

Coach Fedora and the Tar Heels, have almost always shown a lot of defensive deficiencies, as was the case last week in a loss to the California Bears by a 35-30 count. Thanks to first round pick QB Mitch Trubisky and some good wide receivers those defensive deficiencies were masked by simply outscoring their opposition. That won't be the case this season, as the gunslinger is now in the NFL and much of the offense is being reassembled. Last week the Tar Heels simply made  a lot  of  mistakes on both sides of the ball, throwing two interceptions, losing a fumble and giving up big plays on defense and this week vs a hungry Lousiville program things will only get worse in my humble betting opinion.

Louisville has covered the L/3 meetings in this series.

CFB home team like N.Carolina  - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 31-6 ATS L/37 for a go against conversion rate of 84% for bettors.

Play on Louisville to cover 1 unit reg selection

Ohio destroyed a lower tier Hampton program by a 59-0 count last time out, hardly breaking a sweat in the process. Meanwhile, Purdue lost a grueling hard fought battle, to Louisville in their first game of the season, by a 35-28 count. That effort will now have them in an emotional letdown situation which will translate I'm betting into a muted effort that might actually see them upset by a pretty good MAC side.

OHIO U is 6-0 ATS L/6   in road games in non-conference games.PURDUE is 1-10 ATS  L/10  in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest .

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Ohio - in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games, team that had a winning record last season are 36-10 ATS over the L/25 seasons. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Ohio U - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season are 40-11 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.  CFB  home team like Purdue  - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning are 15-42 ATS dating back 25 seasons.

Play on Ohio U to cover 1 unit reg selection

Georgia Tech and Tennessee both have defensive issues when it comes to stopping the run. Last year Gtech front 7 was a sad group that recorded only 18 sacks all season long, and I'm betting early in this campaign, vs a decent recruitment core of Tennessee options ie (junior John Kelly)  their going to have issues again being able to sustain pressure and keep the field from opening up.. With both teams expected to be running the ball down the throat of the other side all night long a boatload full of accumulated yards and points must be expected. Both teams have question marks on offense, but both have more than enough reloaded talent  behind attacking systems to do some damage here tonight vs defenses that should be soft at best. My own projected estimates suggest the Tennessee will allow the Ramblin Wreck 28pts+….It must be noted that Tennessee is TENNESSEE is 7-0 OVER when they allow 28 or more points with themselves and their opponents combining for a total of 76.7 ppg. Im also betting that Tennesse allows 300 yds + rushing ….TENNESSEE is 9-1 OVER  when they allow 300 or more rushing yards with a combined average of 64 ppg getting scored. I also expect GTech to allow at least 28 + points.....TENNESSEE is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 79.6 ppg going on the board. GEORGIA TECH is 40-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points with a combined average of 79.6 ppg getting scored.  

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection

With UCLA's QB  Josh Rosen healthy again, the Bruins will be a dangerous foe for all comers. Texas A&M is a fine team, but in games that are expected to be close recently they have not performed all that well going just 2-11 ATS L//13 as a dog of 7 points or less. Last season Sumlin and company up ended UCLA 31-24 at home in their opener, but it must be noted that the Aggies HC is just 4-13 ATS facing a team with revenge. Tonight I expect Mora 's Bruins to be hell bent on payback while getting their mojo back.  

 UCLA is 28-14 ATS L/42 in home games in non-conference games. TEXAS A&M is 15-35 ATS   L/50  as a road underdog. 

CFB home team like UCLA - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are a bankroll expanding 73-35 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors

Play on the UCLA Bruins to cover 1 unit reg selection

No. 21 Virginia Tech and No. 22 West Virginia Square off  at FedEx Field in Landover this Sunday night. Both these long time rivals will have new starting QBs, but one side I'm betting has the egde.That team in my betting opinion is the West Virginia Mountaineers with Florida transfer Will Grier under center . He was 6-0 as a starter as a freshman before testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs, subsequently suspended, and then transferring. This kid has the goods and is a top quailty performer and will be supported by the Big 12's leading rusher from last season Senior Justin Crawford and a a deep core of powerful backs .   Meanwhile, VTech will start a red shirt freshman, in Josh Jackson, who will I'm betting experience some jitters here right out of the gate and take time to acclimate to game speed. Yes, I know West Virginia is retooling this season on many fronts, but the pipeline of talent is solid and may surprise a lot of the pundits. TodayI'm betting they stay within the number and get us the cover.  

Vtech is just 2-9 ATS L/11 an non conference favorites of 3 pts or more and have failed to cover in 5 of their L/7 neutral site games. 

CFB team like VTech - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record are 5-30 ATS L/35 opportunities for a go against conversion rate of 865 for bettors. .

Play on the W Virginia Mountaineers to cover  1unit reg selection

BYU showed their physicality and defensive power in their first game of the season vs Portland State as 20-6 win, as well as their ability to smash the ball on the ground in grinding fashion on offense Yes. the offense did struggle, and QB Magnum Tanner looked like he had a lot of rust on him, gaining just 194  passing yds. I'm betting BYUs D, will once again be  solid this week vs LSU and in an effort to slow this game down and eat up clock the same type of offensive game plan will be implemented here as was the case in their first game. Meanwhile, Bill Oregeron's LSU will play their first game of the season, and rust and kinks may not make them as fluid offensively as they will be later on this season, which will curtail their overall offensive output in this spot as they get accustomed to new offensive coordinator Matt Canada .  I also expect LSUs to use a large dose of key back Gucie this week, which in turn will eat up even more clock time,  and for the Bayou Benglas D to be  stopper tonight and  for BYU to struggle to put points on the board. With that said, I am betting Saturday's affair will  remain on the low side of the Total.

BYU is 11-3 UNDER L/14 in all games .LSU is 10-2 L/12 UNDER  in all games.LSU is 10-1 UNDER   when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39.6 ppg going on the board. LSU is 6-0 UNDER  in the first half of the season last season with a combined average of 39.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Play UNDER

No. 1 Alabama plays No. 3 Florida in the Chick-fil-A Classic on Saturday night in what has been called the biggest opening game ever in college football. Alabama, bidding for a perfect 15-0 season, lost 35-31 to Clemson on a last-second touchdown in the College Football Playoff title game last January after a 24-7 victory over Washington in a semifinal pairing at the Georgia Dome and showed many of us that the Tide may have turned (pardon the pun). Now enters Jimbo Fisher's Florida State  that is 30-5 SU in non conference battles, and 9-1 SU vs the SEC. Meanwhile, Alabama the No.1 ranked team in the nation, has some interesting ATS numbers attached to their status, as these top ranked teams are just 16-15-1 ATS in openers,  and just .45-65-1 ATS when not listed a DD favorites.  Nick Saban the Tides formidable HC is also just 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS in openers vs non conference competition as single digit favorite.

Florida State to cover

South Alabama to cover vs Ole Miss - The Sex scandal that lost head coach Hugh Freeze his job, has this Ole Miss program reeling.  That’s not a good omen for a team that also lost 5 of their L/7 games last season.  Here today vs a South Alabama Jaguars side that  pulled an  upset at Mississippi State in last year's opener, anything is possible. Coincidentally the Jaguars also upset a very good San Diego State program  last season, as DD home dogs, so this is a team that is not easily intimidated and thrives in the underdog role.  

S ALABAMA is 10-2 ATS in road games in September games since 1992 and is 14-3 ATS in road games in the first half of the season since 1992.

Play on the South Alabama to cover 1 unit reg selection

. The UMass minutemen are sure to be jet lagged and an emotional let down state after playing in Australia last week while losing to Hawaii with under 1 minute left on the clock (38-35).  Now they go against a tough head coach Joe Moglia (Coastal Carolina) who owns a magnifcent  51-15 SU record in five years , including a 10-2  record last season – with both losses coming  by a single point! The  CC offense has averaged at least 34 PPG every season under Moglia and are expected to be offensively effecient this season, vs one of last seasons worst Ds. I know the Minutemen has 17 returning starters , but like I have said, before that not neccisarily a good thing considering their continued futility. 

Play on Costal Carolina to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Troy enters this game with what might end up being their best  team ever, as 16 solid starters (10 on offense) return along with a boatload of under rated talent. With their Blue Carpet opponents the Broncos  returning QB Brett Rypien QB and his best WR Cedric Wilson, many think the Broncos will remain a force, but I disagree with this assessment as much of offense is now departed, and 4 key tacklers on D are now also gone. The pipeline of talent that Chris Peterson left behind is also now mostly gone,  and I'm betting HC Harsins team won't be as formidable, which could see Boise State face a drop off this season. It must be noted that the Broncos have failed to cover 16 of their L/25 and re just 1-10 ATS L/11 at home. With Boise State eyeing Washington State in their next game, the Broncos may not as focused in a dangerous opponent in their opener. Troy has covered 5 of their L/7 opeing games as underdogs and have covered 8 of their L/12 as a non conference DD pup. BOISE ST is 0-6 ATS   as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Troy to cover 1 unit reg selection 

There is just not enough respect being shown to Jim Harbaugh and company this week vs Florida. Yes, I know Harbaugh has hardly any key returning starters back, but this guy is a behemoth recruiter and has a boatload full of talent in the pipeline and is now ready to reload. Meanwhile, despite of the accolades the Gators are getting, I'm still not sold on their ability to move the ball behind QB Jim McELwain or any of the other Gator Qbs. Also with a key suspension to WR Antonio Calaway, the Gators are at a disadvantage both mentally and physically as is evident, by the rash of suspensions the team will suffer from this Saturday. Florida has also shown a propensity to implode against top tier opposition, while Harbaugh has proven he can be trusted as a favorite of 7 points or less winning 6 of 7 opportunities ATS and is a perfect 7-0 SU. Harbaugh is also 6-0 SU/ATS as chalk of 7 or less before game 6 winning su by an average of 24.5 ppg. Michigan is 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 meetings in this series and get the nod again this week on a neutral field.

Play on Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection

Wyoming to cover vs Iowa  

Wyoming QB Josh Allen is  a projected first-rounder in the 2018 NFL draft and I'm betting his offensive talents will be even more explosive this season than last years 28 TD performance. Yes, The cowboys D was bad last season but with Scott Hazelton now running the defense things should be much improved. Today against an Iowa football program that was nearly dead last in the FBS (121st) on offense last year, those problems may not seem as hightligted today. It must be noted that Iowa has failed to cover 5 of their L/6 non conference tilts as favorites of 14 points or less and were only 4-3 SU at home last season. The Cowboys have also covered 5 season openers as underdogs. WYOMING is 6-0 ATS L/6 when the total is between 49.5 and 56.  

Play on Wyoming to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Horns start a new error today as HC Tom Herman takes over the reigns for the Texas Longhorns. You can bet he will have his team ready for a win in merciless fashion today as he makes sure his team gets of on the right foot. I know Maryland had a Bowl bid season in 2016, but I was not all that impressed by them and were a team that was out yarded by 49 ypg and finished their season losing 2 of their L/9 games and lost and failed to cover 5 straight games vs FBS opposition on the road last season losing by just under 23 ppg.  

Herman is 9-0 SU and 7-0 ATS L/9 non conference games. 

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Texas- excellent offense from last season - averaged 425 or more total yards/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 30-8 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Also CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Texas - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-10 ATS over the same time perimeters for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection

Muncie, Indiana is just 170 miles away from Champaign, Illinois , and this is not much of a road trip for the Cards.Ball State is now a very underrated MAC East that is going to make some noise this season. It’s the second year for head coach Mike Neu, and he’s got a team that despite of having a rebuilding tag on it,  must be respected behind second year starter QB Ryan Neal and RB James Gilbert 1332 yds, 12 TDS. Meanwhile, Illinois is going to have a very inexperienced team, and have a new starter under center Chayce Crouch who will take over for former Chicago Bears head coach Lovie Smith. Illinois only averaged 19.7 points per game in 2016, ranking  at 122nd in the nation and getting points on the board will be a problem again here this season. I'm betting the Illini inability to move the ball consistently will be their downfall today. 
 
Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten and have covered 4 straight non conference games..Fighting Illini are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. MAC. 
  
BALL ST is 17-4 ATS L/21 as a road underdog of 7 points or less .ILLINOIS is 12-26 ATS L/38 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

Ball State to cover 1 unit reg selection  

BC defensive front I'm betting will be dominant here in the opener vs N.Illinois and control their opponents offensive line. Both teams have been trying to move forward and get more explosive offensively, but the key factor here today will be the ability of Boston College to stop cold the N.Illinois run game, thus rendering the Huskies ability to spread the field and have an effective pass attack. Both teams should be subdued offensively, but BCs superior top tier D, will be the difference maker. 

Play on Boston College to cover 1 unit reg selection

Head coach Todd Graham,  of the Sun Devils is on the hot seat and to has show his detractors that he has the answers to some ugly questions about the stability of his defense and his ability to keep track in the talent laden PAC12. This in his opening game vs New Mexico state, I expect he makes sure his team leaves everything on the field. Yes, I do expect the  Aggies will do some scoring behind RB Larry Rose III and some talented receivers, but I also expect the Sun Devils D to be improved and to stifle the Aggies at key junctures of this game. In the end I 'm betting the Arizona States offense as the game progresses will swallow up the Aggies soft secondary and pass rush D, like a hungry desert snake and pull away for a lopsided victory and cover the spread.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 or more points like Arizona State - terrible defense from last season - allowed 6.1 or more yards/play, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Ohio State Buckeyes enter this game having beaten the Indiana Hoosiers 22 straight times, but the line for this game seems a little bit over blown, and their is a line value edge in taking the underdog.


The Buckeyes have failed to cover 6 of their L/8 as road favs of 23 points or less while the Hoosiers have covered 6 of their L/8 at home as double digit underdog as well as 20-1 SU L/21 home openers. Also road chalk of 20 or more points are just 0-6 ATS L/6 season openers. It must also be noted that Indiana has covered 6 straight in this series, and are an under rated Big 10 team with an above average D. With Oklahoma on board for next week, I'm not sure that Urban Meyer will have his troops leave everything on the field and probably be content with a victory as he irons out some early season kinks.

Indiana University coach Tom Allen knows the challenge his team faces Thursday night.
"Biggest home opener in the history of our program," Allen said. "I've know I've said that many times, but it is what it is, That's exactly the situation we find ourselves in."

With that said look for Indiana at home to come out here and play for respect on the national stage.

Play on Indiana to cover 1 unit reg selection

Allianz Stadium - Sydney Austrailia

Minutemen dropped 46-40 decision at Hawaii last year…Rainbow Warriors’ quarterback Dru Brown passed for 311 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions, and now gong into his second full year as a starter I'm betting he will be even smoother vs a Minuteman secondary that had only 4 interceptions all season long.

Meanwhile,  the Minutemen return seven offensive starters from last year’s team that compiled a ugly 2-10 record and nothing looks like it going to change this season , with core of the offense back , and doing what it does best and that is struggle to move the ball. Hey.I know Hawaii's D, is a lower tier group, but I expect they will do enough to fluster and easily frustrated Umass group. Yes, I also know the  UMass defense returns 10 starters but that's also hardly a good thing, considering how horrendous they were last season.

The difference maker here today, will be Hawaii's superior QB Brown, and the late start time  of 6:00 pm et which will screw with the UMass teams internal clock as they travel half way around the world for this tilt. Meanwhile Hawaii is virtually a hope skip and a jump from Australia and will feel no jet lag or time change issues.

Warriors 7-0 ATS season openers.HAWAII is 22-9 ATS  L/31 in the first two weeks of the season.

Hawaii to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Oregon State was playing at higher level by the end of the 2016 campaign. The Beavers finished Coach Gary Anderson’s second year with victories over Arizona and Oregon and must not be underestimated today vs Colorado State side that will opening a new on campus stadium.  I know the Rams have a lot of key offensive players returning, but unlike many others I'm not all that impressed , and feel their over rated, especially outside of the Mountain West Conference. 

I'm betting the Beavers Running back Ryan Nall will be the centerpiece of the offense today, and despite of a uncertain QB situation, the Beavers will be able to do some damage downfield via play action , vs a average at best secondary. As a sophomore last season Nall rushed for 951 yards and 13 touchdowns and should be even better this season .The defense improved during year two of the Coach Anderson era and Oregon States  goal will be to shore up the run defense which looks achievable. 

 Andersen is 20-8 ATS L/28 as a road underdog and  is 24-11 ATS L35 in non-conference games . 

OREGON ST is 8-1 ATS L/9 in games played on turf . 

I respect coach Anderson a lot, and like the way he is rebuilding this Oregon State side. With that said, I'll take his PAC 12 team to get us the cover here on the road in week 0.  

Play on the Oregon State Beavers to cover

Clemson's  Deshaun Watson rolled up 478 yards and directed the Tigers to 40 points in last season's national championship, and now he is even more experienced and primed to get a crack at a national championship. Clemson carved up Alabama with 10 plays of 20-plus yards last season and were able to take advantage of the Tides percieved invinciibility. Meanwhile, Clemsons D, is even better in my opinion this time around, and now that their key offensive play caller /corodinator Lane Kiffin is now with Florida Atlantic, it becomes problematic for the the Tide. Look for Alabamas ture freshman QB Hurt to unexpectedly struggle and continue a long list of freshman QBs to fail to bring home a championship ,  as No true freshman quarterback has led his team to the national championship since 1985 (dating back 32 yrs). I actually believe that Clemson has a shot at a SU win here, but taking the points is the far better investment option.

CLEMSON is 8-1 ATS L/9  vs. top tier  teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season.CLEMSON is 31-14 ATS L/45 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. HC Swinney is 8-0 ATS L/8  in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.

College Football Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ALABAMA) - excellent offensive team (440 YPG or more) against a team with a good defense (280 to 330 YPG), in non-conference games is just 10-32 ATS dating back 10 seasons.

Play on the Clemson tigers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

In games like this defense wins out over offense. Look for the Tigers top tier D, and their abilty to run the ball, to slow down the Sooners explosive offense. 

OKLAHOMA is 0-6 ATS L/6 as a neutral field favorite over the last 3 seasons losing SU by almost 10 points per game. 

Auburn to cover 1 unit reg selection 

ROSE BOWL - Rose Bowl Stadium - Pasadena, CA

According to my own stats and numbers and power rankings USC is the most under rated team in the country. I do acknowledge, that Penn State got progressively better this season, and showed a great deal of tenacity when going down early to Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship game, before coming back for the win. But allowing a sometimes pedestrian Wisconsin side to light them like they did, for 31 points does not bode well for their chances against a explosive USC offense that is also bolstered by a  solid defense,  that allowed top tier Washington Huskies just 13 points in a 26-13 road win. HC Franklin, of Penn St is 1-9 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better)

USC is 7-1 ATS and on a perfect 6-0 ATS run as a favorite this season.USC is 9-2 ATS L/11 vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game.

Play on USC to cover 1 unit reg selection 

PLAYSTATION FIESTA BOWL - Univ of Phoenix Stadium - Phoenix, AZ

Alot has been made of Ohio States HC Urban Meyers 45-3 record with more than a week to prepare for an opponent, but what few are saying, is that Clemson handed Meyer one of those losses. 

 With that said, I expect QB Watson Heisman Trophy finalist who showed off his star abilities in last seasons  national championship game when he smashed Alabama's vaunted defense for 405 passing yards and four touchdowns through the air to once again be the catalyst for a Clemson cover .  Also look for the Tigers to use the  Northwestern successful blueprint that was used earlier this season vs Ohio States assumed to be  dominant secondary. On D, Im betting a Clemson side, that had 46 sacks (2nd in the nation) to give Ohio States offense enormous trouble.

HC Swinney of Clemson  is 8-0 ATS L/8 in road games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season and is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.

Play on the Clemson  TOP SELECTION - Bowl Game of the Year

BUFFALO WILD WINGS CITRUS BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL
Louisville vs LSU 
According to my power rankings this game is as close to a pickem as you can get, thus getting points with Louisville makes for a strong wager in my opinion. The Cards were deflated towards the end of the season, but must not be underestimated here, as they look to get back some respect from a college football world that no longer thinks they were capable national contenders in the first place. 
LOUISVILLE is 11-1 ATS L/12 in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite which happened in their L/ game of the season, vs Kentucky.Petrino is 21-9 ATS L/30 in road games in games played on turf .

Play on Louisville to cover 1 unit reg selection

TAXSLAYER BOWL - Everbank Field - Jacksonville, FL
Kentucky vs Georgia Tech 
Gtech was highly inconsistent this season with their option offense, and will have their hands full with a SEC defense that has had time to prepare for them. Bob Stoops football program won 5 of their L/7 games, and also have a run game that can match the Yellowjackets attack. This ones going to be grinder, and Kentucky has the weapons to not only cover but steal a win. 
All teams where the line is +3 to -3 like GTecg - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7 or more games, in non-conference games are 26-5 ATS dating back to the 2006 campaign.

Play on Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection

NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL - Arizona Stadium - Tucson, AZ

The Air Force Falcons finished their season with an overall record of 9-3 and enter their Bowl game on an impressive 5-game winning streak and will ride that momentum into this tilt. Offensively, the Falcons were led by their rushing attack that ranked 3rd in the country,and will take advantage of a team that depends on their defense to be competitive but allowed and average of 36.7 ppg in their L/3 games. The Jaguars are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games overall

S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS L/7 in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game by an average of 20.7 ppg. S ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and 4-15 ATS L/19 in the second half of the season.

College Football teams like Air Force  - excellent rushing team (4.8 YPR or more) against a terrible rushing defense (4.8 YPR or more) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in 2 straight game are 36-9 ATS L/45. 

Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection 

FRANKLIN AMER. MORT. MUSIC CITY BOWL - Nissan Stadium - Nashville, TN

From a power ranking standpoint in a cross conference reference guide I have created for Bowl season, tells me a story of an under appreciated Nebraska side, that looked tired in the later part of the this season. Now rejuvenated I look for them to give an extremely inconsistent  Tennessee team a real run for the money in the Music City Bowl and get us the cover. 

Nebraska's HC Riley is 21-8 ATS L/29 when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.

All College Football teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Volunteers - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are just 7-31 ATS L/38 dating back to the 2011 campaign.

Play on Nebraska to cover 1 unit reg selection 

 updte: Stanfords Christian McCaffrey expected to miss Friday vs. North Carolina ( Personal 

NC HC Fedora is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game in all games he has coached .N CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS L/9 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

College Football teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Stanford - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are just 5-26 ATS dating back 10 seasons, for a go against conversion rate of 83%.

Play on the North Carolina to cover 1 unit reg selection

AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN- TCU vs Georgia - 
It will be a battle of TCU's offense, which averages 461 yards per game, against Georgia's defense, which ranks 18th in the nation with 314 yards allowed per contest. I know TCU imploded towards the end of the season, with 4 straight home losses. but Georgia has shown they can implode at the worst times, such as was the case again Tennesse, blowoing a late lead and losing, and in this matchup, could have problems competing if TCUs offense is in a rhythm, which was also the case vs the Vols.
TCU is 12-3 ATS L/15 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return.HC Patterson of TCU is 20-10 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest . 
College Football teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Georgia - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7 or more games, in non-conference games are 5-26 ATS for a 84% conversion rate.

Play on TCU to cover 1 unit reg selection

ADVOCARE V100 TEXAS BOWL - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

Im a big Bill Snyder fan , and will back his side here today, vs a downtrodden Texas A&M Aggies side, that had a disappointing year, after some great expectations. 

TEXAS A&M is 4-13 ATS L/17 when playing against a team with a winning record and 1-8 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game like Kansas State.TEXAS A&M is 0-8 ATS L/8. Texas A&M HC Sumlin is 0-9 ATS L/10 off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival which happened against LSU last time out and 1-9 ATS L/10 against a top tier team with a win % of between .600 and ,750. 

Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection 

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL-West Virginia vs Miami 
Mark Richts Canes are a young crew, and despite of finishing on a 4 game win streak, showed some major gaps in concentration. Manwhile, West Virginia showed glmipses of being a power house team going forward, and with the added time off should be explosive in this game. 
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS L/6 versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game like West Virginia. 

West Virginia to cover 1 unit reg selection

MOTEL 6 CACTUS BOWL - Chase Field - Phoenix, AZ

Baylor vs Boise State 

Im betting Baylor pounds away with their ground game against Boise State, and take advantage of a program that has not faired well against teams that can move the chains consistently on the ground,  going just 3-12 ATS L/15 versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 rushing or more yards/carry . Boise State in their L/game of the season, lost 27-20 to Air force, and have shown a propensity to fall asleep at the proverbial wheel at key junctures of games this season. Look for Baylor to lull their opponents to sleep with a slow methodical approach and pace.

Baylor to cover 1 unit reg selection 

LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL - Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

LA  Tech averaged 44 ppg on offense this season, and allowed   32.6 ppg on defense. Meanwhile, Navy average scored an average of 37.4 ppg and allowed 29.7 ppg. I expect both will do a load of scoring today in game that easily eclipses the total. LOUISIANA TECH is 7-0 OVER L/7 when the total is between 63.5 and 70 this season with a combined average of 82 ppg going on the scoreboard.  LA Techs Holtz is 12-4 OVER L/18 vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game with an average of 72.3 ppg getting scored. 

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Both these teams enter this tilt on 7-0 ATS runs. Colorado State , however, finished their season with a 63-31 smash down of Mountain West ChampsSan Diego State, and have been made hefty favorites in part for the aforementioned win. Meanwhile, Idaho is still no push over, and are being disrespected by the linesmakers in this spot. Yes, I do know Colorado State showed off an explosive offense, during their campaign, but The Idaho defense limited three of its last four opponents to 14 or fewer points.
HC of Idaho Petrino is 12-4 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 200 or more rushing yards/game.
College football Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Idaho - after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 89-46 ATS since 1992 for a 66% conversion rate! 

Play on Idaho to cover 1 unit reg selection

BOCA RATON BOWL - FAU Stadium - Boca Raton, FL

Memphis vs W.Kentucky 

Alot has been said about Western Kentucky, and its explosive offense, but their achillies heel is their defense that was torched by LA Tech twice this season for 50 plus points. I know the Toppers D numbers are stable, but that was against weak  to average opposition. Im betting that's going to be the Hilltoppers demise this week, vs a Memphis side ranked 17th in scoring offense (39.5 points per game) finished its season with a 48-44 upset over 18th-ranked Houston. The Tigers are led by junior QB Riley Ferguson, who compiled a amazing 152.2 passing rating (28 TDs, 3,326 yards). This will be a back and forth affair, but the Tigers will make a few more key stops that will be the difference maker today

Play on the Memphis Tigers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

CAMELLIA BOWL - Cramton Bowl - Montgomery, AL

Toledo vs App State 

Both these teams are offensively capable, but according to my matchup analysis, the Rockets are better overall with their attack, and  did their best work against superior opponents than the Mountaineers . Alot has been said, about App States D, but Toledo despite of being torched by a few explosive offenses, this season, are a stop unit that must not be under estimated. Appalachian State is 0-4 ATS in their last four games on field turf;TOLEDO is 7-0 ATS L/7 in non-conference games and 4-0-1 ATS L/5 vs Sun Belt opposition. 

Play on Toledo to cover 1 unit reg selection 

AUTONATION CURE BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

Arkansas State vs UCF -

Arkansas State  after a slow start to the season, really picked up alot of steam as the campaign progressed. On offense the Red Wolves have scored 30 or more in five of their last six games -- the only one without 30 points being the only loss in those six games. The Red Wolves  defense was solid all season long, but got even better as the season progressed, and will give the Knights offense alot of problems. Meanwhile, UCF is 0-6 against Bowl teams this season and lost the stats war in 8 straight games to finish their campaign. Needless to say we have a bit of a false favorite scenario here. Note: The favorite has lost the L/4 UCF Bowl games.

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL - University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM

New Mexico started the season very slowly but rebounded to go 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in its last seven games to make a rare bowl appearance and will be pumped up to get a win.The Lobos have gotten to this point in the season behind a explosive top-ranked rushing attack. New Mexico, averaging 360.9 rushing yards per game, behind two 1000-yard rushers with Teriyon Gipson and Tyrone Owens, mowing over opposition defenses on a consistent basis .    The  Lobos offense ranks No. 22-in the nation (37.83 PPG) against a UTSA Roadrunners defense that ranks No. 69 allowing an average of  28.33 PPG.   I expect the Lobos win this one with their rush attack  by smashing and crashing and wearing down a UTSA Defense, that can be gashed for big yards . Hey guys, I know the Lobos D, is irrelevant and very porous, but New Mexico has found a way to win the war of attrition under similar circumstances this season, and will get the job done again in front of what should see them backed by a majority of the crowd in Albuquerque. 

CFB Home favorites like New Mexico  - excellent rushing team (4.8 YPR or more) against a team with a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games are 36-14 ATS dating back 24 years.

I was hoping to see this matchup this week, and low in behold I get my wish. According to my own data base matchups Wisconsin on a neutral  field should be 4.5 point favorities, but on further considerations, my player to player and offensive/defensive unit correlations tell me that this could easily be a 6 point plus victory for the Badgers. Thus laying points here is a viable investment option. Note: Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook is said to be feeling better after a some light head trauma last week, and despite of his status being day to day, may pundits expect he will play in this big game. If not his so called back up Houston is a very viable option and in my opinion the superior QB. 

HC Franklin of Penn State  is 0-9 ATS  in road games when playing against a top-level team .750 or better win %. 

 PENN ST is 20-43 ATS L/63 versus good defensive teams - allowing 310  or less yards/game like Wisconsin and 8-22 ATS L/30 in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.WISCONSIN is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games when playing on a Saturday this season.

Wisconsin to cover 1 unit reg selection

Georgia State (3-8) has struggled this season, and are 0-5 on the road while averaging just 13 ppg on offense. Their rush D, has allowed an average of 236 ypg, when on the road, and thats not a good omen for this chances at a win or cover here vs a Idaho side that is 8-0 ATS L/8 when they rush for 150-to 200 ypg. 

IDAHO is 10-1 ATS L/11 when playing against a team with a losing record and  6-0 ATS  when playing against a lower tier team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) 

Play on Idaho to cover 1 unit reg selection 

We have a good situation to bet into here with Baylor as big double digit underdogs. I know the Bears have not looked all that stable of late, but West Virginia despite of a win last week, against Iowa State have shown some late season defensive holes, and have allowed 218, 316, and 190 yards rushing in their L/3 and are looking tired as a unit. Thats something Baylor can take advantage of via a run game that has averaged 5.8 ypc on the road and an average 326 ypg. It must be noted that  WV HC Holgorsen is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game which happend vs Iowa State last week.

Play on Baylor to cover 1 unit reg selection 

AAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Navy Memorial Stadium - Annapolis, MD

Temples D is one of the few stop units in college Football that can harness the triple option offense of Navy. Also according to my own preferred data base matchup statistics, the wrong team is favored. I know that Navy has not lost here for a while now, but all good and bad runs must come to an end. But not withstanding a SU win, Im betting we get the all important cover. With that said, Im taking a rare double unit stand here, with Temple as my College Football Game of the Year. Im on the take here with the points.

TEMPLE is 9-0 ATS L/9 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 425 or more yards/game winning SU by an average of 22.8 ppg game.TEMPLE is 8-0 ATS against conference opponents this season.

A road team like Temple - allowing 200 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are a bankroll expanding 47-19 ATS since 1992 for a 71% conversion rate.

Play on Temple to cover 2 Unit - Generals Club Game of the Year

Kansas State has proven a great deal to me this season, have already beaten up on Baylor in a road tilt this season. I have been impressed with their overall tenaciousness, and once again feel the Cats are solid underdogs this week vs a over rated opponent. It must be noted that TCU QB Kenny Hill hurt his foot last week, and if he plays will be less than 100% as is the case with RB Kyle Hicks with a rib injury. 

TCU is 0-6 ATS L/6 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points dating back to last season and has failed to cover their L/6 home games.

Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection 

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - LT Smith Stadium - Bowling Green, KY

LA Tech beat W.Kentucy 55-52 in their first matchup this season at LA Tech. But now with revenge on board and front of what will be partisan home crowd I expect the tables will be reversed in a big way. With the ‘Toppers get revenge at home behind the arm of  QB White and legs of  RB Wales, and their more consistent defense will be the difference maker this week.

W KENTUCKY is 12-4 ATS L/16 against conference opponents dating back to last season.

A home team like Western Kentucky - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 26-8 ATS since 1991. 

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Western Michigan still undefeated smashed Toledo last week in a DD win despite of losing the stats sheet battle, and now the College football world expects another easy win for the Bronos this week vs the Ohio Bobcats. However, I am not going to follow the party line and instead in contrarian fashion, expect the Bobbies to make a game of this MAC Championship event. It must be noted that in the past the W.Mich has covered only 1 of 5 games after a 20 point or more victory, while Ohio has covered 5 of their L/6 as DD conference dogs. Also MAC Championship games with a favorite of 7 or more points has crashed and burned 5 of the L/6 times with undefeated teams going 0-3 ATS while losing 2 times. After last weeks showdown with Toledo, Western Michigan is a precarious emotional situation, and despite of that win , as mentioned above lost the overall stats battle. 
Also from a league wide CFB data base: Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like W.Mich - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-tier team (.800 or better record ) playing a good team (.600 to .800 ) are just 16-44 ATS since 1991 for a 73% go against conversion rate! 

Play on Ohio to cover 1 unit reg selection

After putting on a crazy amount of air miles on their bodies this season, Hawaii really looks burned out, and have very little left in the proverbial  tank. And yes, I know UMass does not give bettors a great deal of confidence, but they have shown flashes of some strong football, and are every bit as good as the Rainbow Warriors and will prove here tonight via a cover. 

HAWAII is 1-8 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record dating back to last season and are 0-6 ATS L/6 as favorite and have failed to cover 7 straight November tilts and  is 1-10 ATS L/11 in the second half of the season.

Play on UMass to cover 1 unit reg selection 

My own numbers suggest this total should be closer to 51 giving us a cushion of 4 points, which qualifies under my data criteria for totals. I really don't think Rice's offense will have much luck moving the ball this week, while I expect Stanford to get up early and than coast in the 2nd half , using alot of younger guys, and 2nd and third string players, which will see a muted combined score go on the board. 

 Stanfords HC Shaw is 20-10 UNDER L/30 when the total is between 49.5 and 56 with an average of 48.8 ppg going on the scoreboard.

College Football team against the total Rice  - after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games and 33-8 on the UNDER. 

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

North Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection -late steam

Ole Miss is off getting blasted as 10 point road favorites vs Vanderbilt last week losing a 38-17 decision. Which puts into play a league wide trend that shows  Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Ole Mississippi - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in November games are a ugly 8-31 ATS in their follow up game . Meanwhile, Miss State of off a 58-42 home loss to Arkansas last week, where the offense still rolled up big numbers . This trend is from a league wide trend - A road team like  Miss State - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-10 ATS.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 11-1 ATS L/12 after playing a game at home over the last couple of  seasons.

Play on Miss State to cover 1 unit reg selection 

After highly charged and brutally physical  back to back games against Louisville and Clemson, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are in a tough situation against an extremely tough Boston College defense, that will once again punish their anemic offense.

Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Wake Forest are 12-30 ATS L/42 - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.

Play on Boston College to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Arkansas State has gotten progressively better as the season has gone on and are now a contender in the Sun Belt conference again. Last week they demolished Troy by a 34-7 count as 9 point dogs, and now this week as short road favorites vs a LA Lafayette team that showed promise earlier in the season, is struggling now and must be considered a strong go against bet. Lafayette has faded of late losing 4 of their L/6 SU. LA LAFAYETTE is 2-10 ATS L/12 in home games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.ARKANSAS ST is 15-4 ATS L/19 after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins. ARKANSAS ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.ARKANSAS ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 in November games.

Arkansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection

This is the ugly Betty, of the College Football rotational board this week, as Maryland hosts Rutgers. Both programs have looked like crap this season, and both do not inspire bettors. But while looking at my data base I noticed big DD dogs, under various futile parameters have shown these ugly dogs do well ATS vs these not so pretty favorites. The same type of trends anomalies showed up earlier this season when Rutgers were 18 point dogs at decent Minnesota and almost sprung the upset by losing a 32-34 decision. With little left to play for I doubt Maryland will be pumped up for this tilt and will probably just go through the motions in front a bunch of empty seats. Note:  Maryland injury update [QB] 11/20/2016 - Perry Hills questionalble Saturday vs. Rutgers ( Shoulder ) and if he plays will be less than 100%.

Play on Rutgers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

This is a big MAC game between two of the better teams in the nation. I expect a hard fought affair from beginning to end, with the points eventually being golden for bettors. Grab the points for a solid bet. 

CFB League Wide Trend: CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Rockets are 44-18 ATS - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (440 YPG or more ), after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games. 

W MICHIGAN is 2-15 ATS L/17 in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better and is 1-11 ATS L/12 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.W MICHIGAN is 4-15 ATS L/19 in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game.TOLEDO is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road lined games dating back to last season. Toledo HC Fleck is 10-1 ATS L/11 off a home win

Play on the Toledo Rockets to cover 1 unit reg selection

Two teams LSU and their hosts Texas A&M play this Thursday in a key game for both teams.  The Tigers head coach Orgeron needs a signature win at a chance to remain as a long shot coach of LSU. (Doubtful but a win here might get him his shot) Meanwhile, the Aggies, at 8-3 would love to get a chance at a 10 win season, with a victory today and in their Bowl game. As is usually the case in big games, defense will be key. Both are stout, but LSU's D, when motivated and when in top form can stop the best of offenses in this conference and the country. (With both sides, expected to be without key offensive cogs, LSU - RB L. Fournette and Texas A&M starting QB Trevor Knight)  D wins big games synopsis becomes more important than ever.

TEXAS A&M is 1-12 ATS L/13 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less  yards per return. TEXAS A&M is 0-6 ATS  in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread, which has just happened.TEXAS A&M is 1-8 ATS L/9  in home games against conference opponents. TEXAS A&M is 1-11 ATS L/12  in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. LSU has won 5 straight meetings in this series.

League Wide CFB Trend- Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Tigers - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 43-16 ATS.

Play on LSU to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Air Force enters this game having won three straight tilts, but wont get a Mountain West title shot, and now are out to pad their Bowl game resume against a San Jose State side just playing out the string. Air force needs a big showing, while San Jose State will most likely stand around twiddling their thumbs  waiting for a new coach after 4th straight losing season. SAN JOSE ST is 0-10 ATS L/10 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points . 

A College Football home team like the Spartans - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games. are an ugly 5-32 ATS L/37.  College Football Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Air Force- after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are a bankroll expanding 40-15 ATS L/55.A College Football home team like San Jose State - after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games. is 8-37 ATS L/45. 

Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Oh boy talk about a hangover. Thats what I am betting the Huskies have this week, after a hard fought and heart breaking loss to USC last week that ended their undefeated season. Now in a a emotional letdown scenario the Huskies go against a Arizona State side that has a recent history of domination in this  series as is evident by a 10-0 SU/ATS L/10 record. Also the Suns Devils have only failed to cover once in their L/6 times as 12 or more point conference dogs.

Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection 

East Carolina's defense has been atrocious all season long, and in their L/7 games 6 , have been ugly as they have  given up 54,47, 38, 31, 45, and 55 points . Meanwhile, Navy has scored 46, 42, 45, 28, and 42 points in their L/6 tilts. Assuming things remain the same, another Navy output in mid 45 point range should be expected. Also considering how porous Navys D, can be at times I will not be surprised if E.Carolina which has improved offensively of late does not also put up at least 30 plus  points . Expectations here, give credence to this one going over the total. 

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Virginia Tech is the superior side and even though the Irish are improving, Virginia Tech’s D unit has been a little more consistent and will be the difference maker here on the road.

College football Road teams where the line is +3 to -3  like Vtech - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game. are 134-73 ATS for a long term 65% conversion rate on the line. 

NOTRE DAME is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games off 4 or more consecutive unders. 

Play on VTech to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Washington State enters this game against Colorado on a 8-0 run and are a perfect 7-0 in conference play.  The Cougars are in top form, not only with their offense but with a defense, that has held four different opponents to season low or 2nd low yards per game. This one has the making of a one score game, with the points being golden. 

WASHINGTON ST is 11-1 ATS l/12 vs. good passing teams like Colorado with a completion pct. of 58% or better and 6-0 ATS vs a side with a 62% completion rate or better, and is 8-0 ATS L/8 versus top tier  offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game.WASHINGTON ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 as an underdog. Washington is a perfect 3-0 ATS L/3 games at Colorado.

A College Football road team like Washington State  - average defensive team (330-390 YPG) against a good defensive team (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-9 ATS for a 80% conversion rate on the line.

Take the points with Washington State 1 unit reg selection 

Minnesota's  HC Claeys is 6-0 ATS L/6  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread.

Minnesota to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Bill Snyders Kansas State is off a bye week, which is good news for their betting backers, as they flash a 10-0 ATS record with rest over the last 5 seasons. The Wildcats need just one win to get the a Bowl and Im betting it comes today, vs a Baylor squad  on a 0-3 ATS/SU skid and that is expected to start a freshman QB this week in  Zach Smith. 

BAYLOR is 10-23 ATS L/33  in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing  120 or less rushing yards/game.BAYLOR is 1-9 ATS L10 after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 game.

Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection 

    The Troy Trojans are coming off a come from behind victory over power house Appalachian State last week, and will now be in a letdown situation this week. Meanwhile, Arkansas State is a team that has been improving as the season has continued something I projected to happen. Look for and bet on the Red Wolves making life difficult for Troy and getting us the cover. ARKANSAS ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better and is 11-2 ATS L/13 against conference opponents

Play on Arkansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection   

 Louisville came out asleep at the proverbial wheel in their last game against Wake Forest , and needed a late surge in the fourth quarter to get by the Demon Deacons.  Now this week, they go against a Houston team that is perfect , 13-0 SU at home under  HC Tom Herman,. I know Houston started their year out with alot of hope, and despite of a lack of  enthusiasm at certain times this season, are a fine team that must be respected on their own home field. This is by far Houstons biggest game of the season, and Im betting they come out here on fire. In their L/49 home games the Cougars when above .500 on the season  have never lost by more than 13 points. HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS L/7 as an underdog.

Take the points with Houston 1 unit reg selection 

Minnesota at 7-2 is not a team that should be taken lightly. Meanwhile, after a promising start to their season, Nebraska has fallen back to earth with a thud, and have lost two straight. After last weeks embarrassing massive DD loss to Ohio State, these young men come home demoralized.  Not a good spot for Nebraska this week. 

MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS L/10after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game. Nebraksas HC 

Riley is 2-13 ATS L/15 in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more  rushing yards/game .

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Gophers - outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game are a bankroll expanding 31-8 ATS. 

Minnesota to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Coming off a bye week, the Razorbacks put forth their vrery best effort of the season in a 31-10 beatdown of Florida , while LSU enters off a physical 10-0 battering and beating at the hands of the Crimson tide last week. One team has momentum , while the other is in a letdown situation. 

LSU is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons. Arkansas has won 2 straight meetings in this series.

Take the points with Arkansas 1 unit reg selection 

Ohio State rolled Nebraska last week, by a huge DD margin, Now after satisfying their egos, and upping their national ranking ,they may start a little slow this week against a Maryland side that has covered 4 of their L/5 as 28 or more point home dogs. You have to remember, that HC Urban Meyer and company have a Michigan State program that ruined their run for a National Championship last season, on board and will be in a look ahead situation. 
MARYLAND is 13-4 ATS L/17 in home games after a loss by 28 or more points, which qualifies after last weeks 59-3 loss to Michigan.

Play on the Maryland Terps to cover 1 unit reg selection

This is a big Sun Belt game, for App State (7-2) and (Troy 7-1). Big games are won with D, and nothing changes here today. Troy is offensively explosive , but this game will be won in the trenches. The Mountaineers have allowed just 16.9 ppg, (17 ppg on the road). 

Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 App State are 33-10 ATS - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games. Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like App State - good rushing team - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game have cashed 31 of the L/39 times for a huge 80% conversion rate vs the spread.

App State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Alabama is off a huge game against LSU last week and won a hard fought 10-0 defensive slugfest. These young men are beaten and battered, and will also be in an emotional let down state. Meanhile, Miss State showed their ability to hang with the big boys and took a win from Texas A&M last week. It must be noted that Miss State is 6-0 ATS in their L/6 as dogs of 23 points or more.

Road underdogs Miss State are 72-33 ATS L/95 opportunities - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more ), after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game. 

Take the points with Miss state 1 unit reg selection

Texas for their second straight week, got by an opponent in a shoot out, allowing a combined 80 points in those two games . With that said, its become obvious to me that HC Charlie Strong defense is atrocious, and now going against a quality D, and balanced team, like West Virginia the Longhorns are in big trouble. The Mountaineers own the best defense in the Big 12, and are 70 YPG superior to the Longhorns porous D. It must be noted Charlie Strongs program has covered only 3 of 12 at home off back to back wins, and have failed to cover 5 straight under those perimeters. 

TEXAS is 0-7 ATS L/7 after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game.Holgorsen is 2-11 ATS L/13 in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 plus yards/game.

Play on West Virginia to cover 1 unit reg selection

The linesmakers have installed Tennessee as big favs. It may have come as shock how big the opening line was, but it was not for me. I always like an edge if I can find one, but laying points here in this tilt is not an issue for me. It must be noted Rockytop is 30-1 SU in this series and 23-8 ATS and are 19-2 ATS L/21 when they are not favored by 17 or more  points.  Stoops is 10-20 ATS  as an underdog as the coach of KENTUCKY losing SU by an average of 16.2 ppg.

Play on the Tennesse Vols in a Blowout win- 1 unit reg selection 

Arizona State (5-4, 2-4) has lost three games in a row and four of five as  injuries ravaged the team at multiple positions and most critically at the quarterback spot, . The Sun Devils played without 10 starters in a loss a 54-35 loss at Oregon in their last game Oct. 29.Sophomore quarterback Manny Wilkins, who led the Sun Devils to 66 points over Texas Tech and 51 against California in September victories, has been in an and out of the lineup while dealing with ankle and shoulder injuries since. He was back in practice Sunday and appears set to return to the starting lineup, and will give a boost to his team this Thursday night vs a Utah side that despite of being a very competitive PAC12 opponent,  but has also been inconsistent. 

Whittingham is 9-26 ATS L/35  as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of UTAH. ARIZONA ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 in home games after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game.

Graham is 9-1 ATS L/10 in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of ARIZONA ST.es are 1-7 ATS as road favorites since joining the conference. The Sun Devils are also 8-3 ATS as conference home dogs and 7-3 ATS with rest.  ASU is also 11-1 ATS L/12 in this series.

Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Akron has an explosive aerial attack and Bowling Green has proved vulnerable in their secondary. Thus I expect Bowling Green will look to slow this game down by utilizing their run game, via very slow and methodical approach. The longer they stretch out the clock , the less flow the Zips offense will have. Note: Akrons run D,  ranks No. 116 nationally. Akron enters this game having gone under in 5 straight games.

AKRON is 14-2 UNDER  in home games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. .250 or less .AKRON in their L/19 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 yards/play or more ypp, have seen an average combined score of 61.8 ppg go on the coreboard. Zips HC Bowden is 15-1 UNDER L/16 after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses.Bowden is 12-1 UNDER L/13 off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival.Bowden is 11-1 UNDER L/12 off 2 straight losses against conference rivals.Bowden is 17-3 L/20 UNDER off a loss against a conference rival.( None of the combined average scores of these games have eclipsed this current number)

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

E.Michigan and Ball State are both off losses, but according to my own power rankings E.Michigan is the superior side.  E.Mich has lost 3 of their L/4 but two of those games came against Western Michigan and Toledo, conference power houses and the third came against now suddenly explosive Miami O.  Ball State three wins this season have come against E.Kentucky lowly Florida Atlantic and Buffalo. Note: QB Riley Neal of Ball State  is less than 100% with a knee injury. He is expected to play, but will be hindered mobility wise. 

 BALL ST is 0-7 ATS L/7 in weeks 10 through 13 dating back 3 seasons. BALL ST is 0-8 ATS  off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival losing SU by an average of 15 ppg.  BALL ST is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play over the last few seasons with the average margin of loss coming by 18.3 ppg. BALL ST has been unable to deal with lower tier secondaries as is evident by a  2-13 ATS L/15 in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 250 or more passing yards.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Both TCU and Baylor are off heart breaking losses, and will be primed to bounce back. Baylor now with no chance for a undefeated season may be a little deflated, and in a look ahead sandwich spot, with the mighty Oklahoma Sooners coming up next.  Meanwhile, Gary Patterson HC of the Frogs is no pushover as he is 16-4 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points and has covered 7 in a row under these spread peremiters.  

TCU is 5-1 L/6 ATS here at Baylor and look like solid underdogs in this spot. TCU is 10-1 ATS L/11 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Horned Frogs - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite 41-13 ATS.

Play on TCU to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Both these teams are struggling, and both I am sure look at this game as an opportunity fir a rare win. With that said look for this tilt to be hard fought , and for the points to be golden. Florida Atlantic previous to their last game, lost by 6, 5,2,4 points, so they have been very competitive. It must be noted that the invading Owls own a12-1 ATS mark as a dogs against foes off a loss, like Rice . Also all College Football Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Florida Atlantic  - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game, after scoring 9 points or less last game have bounced back in a huge way covering 24 of the L/29 times.( W.Kentucy beat Florida Atlantic 52-3 last time out)

Play on Florida Atlantic to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Syarcuse head coach Dino Babers is known for running an offensive system that's all about tempo, quarterback development and the passing game and nothing has changed during his tenure at Syracuse so far. Syracuse is well rested coming off an open date with a 500 record and may provide more of test for Clemson the linesmkaers may anticipate. I expect Syracuse spreads it out, and bombs away from the outset. Yes, I know Clemson is the superior side, but 27 plus points is a boatload full of digits , considering the Tigers usually do just enough to get their wins, and with an objective of staying healthy for the long run to their championship aspirtions. The Tigers have won 5 of their 7 games  by 7 points or less, and have had a tenedncy to look inconsistent in the past. From a league wide perspective , College Football Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points like the Cuse- after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 25-7 ATS for a 78% conversion rate on the line.SYRACUSE is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing or less  7.5 yards per return. CLEMSON is 1-12 ATS L/13 after playing 3 straight conference games.CLEMSON is 0-7 ATS L/7 in weeks 10 through 13 dating back 3 seasons. Syracuse has won the L/2 meetings in this series SU. 

Syracuse to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Demon Deacons signal-caller Clawson is completing just 54.9 percent of his throws with just four touchdowns against seven interceptions on the season, thats not a good omen against a Virginia defense that is improving .I'm a fan of HC Mendenhall and I can see his team is getting better as his time on the sideliness progresses forward as was evident against  Louisville last time out in a 32-25 loss.  Virginia is 7-0 ATS L/7 on the road. Also from a league wide trends perspective - It must be noted that  Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Cavaliers  - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a lower tier team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 32-12 L/44 oportunities for a 73% conversion rate.

Play on Virginia to cover 1 unit reg selection