Old Dominions defense is atrocious having allowed 53,38,58,35,35, 35 points respectively which makes them weak DD favorites. I know Charlotte may not inspire bettors, but CFB  home team vs. the money line Old Dominion - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 13-40 SU, for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.( lost a heart breaker N.Texas by a 45-38 count and are now in a letdown scenario)

OLD DOMINION is 4-14 ATS L/18 after allowing 37 points or more last game .

Penn States undefeated season came crashing down last week in the worst possible way, as they fell apart late and lost to Ohio State 39-38. I know a lot of pundits expect them now to come out very upset and ready to fire on all cylinders, but its never easy to get up off the proverbial matt after being body slammed and having the wind taking out you. Now in an emotional letdown scenario I expect a strong Michigan State defense to make life hard on the Lions in this spot. It must also be noted that the Spartans will also be in a big time revenge mode for being destroyed by Penn State last season by a 45-12 count. (Mich State is 9-1 SU L/10 and  11-1 ATS L/12 in Big 10 revenge tilts)

PENN ST is 2-12 ATS  L/14  in road games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing  285 or less yards/game .PENN ST is 0-7 ATS  L/7 after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses and is 0-6 ATS  L/6  off a road loss.MICHIGAN ST is 7-0 ATS L/7  in home games in the second half of the season during the last few seasons.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Penn State  - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 12-38 ATS on the rebound for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors dating back 25 seasons.

Play on the Michigan State Spartans to cover 1 unit reg selection

Texas Tech enters this game against a very competitive Kansas St football program having lost 4 of their L/5 and  3 straight games by double digit deficits , and in my opinion from the out set of this season have been over rated by the prognosticators. Meanwhile, Bill Snyder's well coached group must be respected, and after resting a lot of starters last week in a win vs instate Rivals Kansas, will now be primed to play a top tier brand of physical football. Take the points.

KC HC Snyder is 31-19 ATS L/50 versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game.

CFB road team like KState - after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 92-42 ATS during the L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Mississippi State is off one of their biggest wins of the campaign last week on the road, against Texas A&M and will now be in a letdown situation and in  a double jeopardy look ahead scenario as they prepare to play Alabama next week.  The goal of Miss State , is to stay healthy for their big game, and I'm betting they play down to their competition this week, while subbing in a lot of backups. Also UMass has suddenly come to life,  winning two straight while compiling 1619 yards of offense in their L/3 games overall while averaging 38.3 ppg, and are a viable cover group in this spot considering the circumstances. I'm betting on Umass moving to 7-0 ATS L/7 vs SEC sides.

Play on UMass to cover 1 unit reg selection

Indiana coach Tom Allen knows know exactly what's coming his way this Saturday when his Indiana Hoosiers go against the fourth-ranked Wisconsin . QUOTE:
"They have just a stable of running backs," Allen said. "They keep rotating them in and pound you, pound you, pound you and try to beat you into submission in the course of the game. It's three tight ends at times and two tight ends most of the time, I-formation, and hunker right at you. END QUOTE:

That's exactly the recipe for success Wisconsin will use once again  this week  vs Indiana.

I know Illinois look disinterested last week in a sleepy win vs Illinois, but now after that short snooze and the season winding down and the possibility of play off spot ,you can  bet they will be awake and ready to make  a statement  vs a Indiana side that not built to withstand the physical pounding they are going to take today behind a D, that has allowed only 12.9 ppg game.

Wisconsin has owned this Indiana football program in the recent past winning 7 straight times by an average score of 58-14 and I am betting on  a repeat performance is on today's agenda.

WISCONSIN is 6-0 ATS L/6 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 winning by an average of 18.2 ppg.

CFB Road favorites Wisconsin - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 51-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors over the L/10 seasons.

Play on Wisconsin to cover 1 unit reg selection

Marshall  after a nice run that saw them winning 5 straight games  behind a nasty D that allowed a total of 37 points ( 7.4 ppg) , looked asleep at the proverbial wheel last week at home in a loss to Florida International. Now wide awake after that embarrassment I expect they will be ready to respond in a big way vs Lane  Kiffins high flying Florida Atlantic football program  a side in a letdown situation after taking a big win against Western Kentucky last week by scoring 22 points in the 4th quarter for a 42-28 win.

Marshall is 4-0 SU L/4 meetings in this series, and I'm betting they cover and possibly pull off a su upset here.

MARSHALL is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return .FLA ATLANTIC is 0-9 ATS  in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs. FLA ATLANTIC is 9-22 ATS L/31 as a home favorite and 1-12 ATS L/13.

Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MARSHALL) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite are 47-17 ATS L/25 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Tonight Navy enters this game against Temple in a nasty mood after two straight hard fought losses derailed their undefeated season. Add to that revenge for a loss to Temple last year in the ACC title game  and you have a Navy side that will be dangerous and merciless. It must be noted that this is not the same smash mouth Temple football program of the last few seasons, under new HC Cosby and  despite of being feisty and well rested off a bye I'm betting  they won't have big enough gonads to stop their fire breathing opponent in this spot. 

Temple when off a bye is 1-9 ATS L/10 SU/ATS vs a conference team looking for revenge. Navy is 5-0 ATS on the road this season.

CFB Road favorites like Navy - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are 66-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Temple - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are just 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Navy to cover 1 unit reg selection

Northern Illinois and Toledo arguably the two best teams in the MAC will go head to head this Thursday night in the Glass Bowl. Toledo has been on a roll of late winning and covering three straight, but their biggest weakness remains their defense, which was evident when they allowed Tulsa and Miami Fl 52 and 51 points respectively  and I'm betting the Huskies do some damage here this week via a balanced attack, while their own staunch D that allows just 18 ppg, will slow the Rockets explosive offense enough to keep them within striking distance of outright upset here this evening.  It must also be noted that NIU is 27-3 SU and 25-5 ATS L/30 on the road in MAC battles and the series visitor has not failed to cover in the L/6 confrontations. It must also be noted NIU is 15-1 SU and 16-0 ATS on the road vs a side off a win like the Rockets are and a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5  away  facing a team on a 3-0 SU/ATS run.

N ILLINOIS is 7-0 ATS  L/7 versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry.

CFB Home favorites like Toledo - in conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning are a long term bad bet going just 61-141 ATS  L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Northern Illinois Huskies to cover 1 unit reg selection

San Diego State after staring 6-0 this season, have fell on hard times thanks to becoming easy to read as they just consistently pass the ball to RB Rashaad Penny. Now they go against a Hawaii side that owns the No#.128 ranked pass efficiency D in the nation , and I expect the Aztecs will finally open up the play book and start looking downfield for bigger gains  and a much larger point production output. I also expect their own D, to stand tall here and give the one way passing game of the Hawaii Warriors some huge problems in what I'm betting will be a conclusive win.

San Diego State has owned Hawaii in the past going `18-3 ATS L/21 meetings and smashed them last season 55-0. I know the Warriors are off a bye week, but they are just 1-6 ATS with rest L/7 and are over matched by a superior team that needs a win badly and that's not a good omen for them getting any kind of revenge here tonight in paradise island.

SAN DIEGO ST is 10-1 ATS  L/11 when playing against a team with a losing record with the average margin of victory ringing in at 28.1 ppg and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS  L/7  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better winning by an average of 27.7 ppg. HAWAII is 1-12 ATS  L/13 after playing 3 straight conference games. 

Play on the San Diego State Aztecs to cover 1 unit reg selection  

Kentucky enters this game against downtrodden Tennessee off a demoralizing loss vs Mississippi St last week by a 45-7 count. These young men are not like pros and don't easily get up off the matt when slapped around in that type of fashion, and a hangover performance by the Wildcats will I'm betting  be the theme  here this Saturday. Meanwhile, on the flipside, I really don't think that Tennessee is as bad as the pundits think they are. Yes, they got beaten up on by Alabama last week and Georgia 3 weeks again in ugly fashion, but a lot of other teams who get respect were also stepped all over by these top tier SEC teams. Prior to the Alabama game Tennessee stood tall vs South Carolina losing a 15-9 heart breaker that they had chances to win, and must not be underestimated vs a slightly over rated Kentucky football program that the Volunteers have virtually owned over the years. This is actually a game that Tennessee can with SU, and I think the team as a whole knows it and needing a win  badly ,  will play with fire this week in what I expect will be a cover.

In the last 20 games in this series, Tennessee has won 19 of 20 meetings SU with the lone loss coming by a 10-7 score back in 2011 at Kentucky.

TENNESSEE is 30-16 ATS L/46  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better like KU.KENTUCKY is 0-6 ATS  L/6 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.

Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.Wildcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.Wildcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Kentucky.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tennessee - lower tier  team - outgained by their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after gaining 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games are actually good long term bets going 34-12 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover 1 unit reg selection

This is a tilt, where my own power ranking systems suggest and outright win by the visitor (New Mexico) vs an over rated side ( WYOMING).  ( Linesmakers agree with my assessments, as does early sharp money) The Lobos run heavy  style of play very much matches up well against a Cowboys team struggling to score. Ball control and clock consumption, are the keys here for New Mexico who took a played a very good Colorado State football program close last week losing 27-24 covering as 10 point home dogs. Last season, Wyoming was clobbered by the Lobos (56-35), and despite of a revenge scenario being in play are just not built to be successfully against this type of team. I'll ring the bell here and expect the visitors to win and cover.

NEW MEXICO is 26-11 ATS  L/37 versus poor rushing teams - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry .

CFB Home underdogs like Wyoming - poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are just 11-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team like New Mexico- excellent rushing team ( 4.8 YPR or more) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 41-14 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New Mexico Lobos to cover 1 unit reg selection

I am finally a believer in Miss State ,  after last weeks non empathetic DD beat down at home of Kentucky. The Bulldogs only two losses have come to Auburn and Georgia who I consider as two of the top three teams in the SEC. Texas A&M is no where near the level of those  teams according to my power rankings despite of recent wins/covers.  Meanwhile, Miss State now in a upward trajectory and currently  playing with a great deal of confidence and now forming into top gear look very capable of taking out a Texas A&M squad that has a history of not performing well off a bye week as HC Sumlins 2-9 ATS record with rest would indicate.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 14-2 ATS L/16 after playing a game at home. MISSISSIPPI ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 after a cover as a double digit favorite .TEXAS A&M is 1-9 ATS  after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games.TEXAS A&M is 0-6 ATS L/6 after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game.TEXAS A&M is 0-7 ATS L/7 in the second half of the season dating back to last season and have a negative long term ATS history in the second half of the season going 9-23 ATS L/31.

TEXAS A&M is 9-23 ATS L/32 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging  5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.

 CFB road team like Miss State  - after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games are a bankroll expanding 23-2 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Mississippi State to cover 1 unit reg selection  

These teams are dead even in the Big 10 with 1-3 records and 4-3 records overall. The difference maker is that PJ Flecks Gophers are the superior defensive side. That's not a good omen for a Iowa side with the 126 ranked red zone offense in the nation. It must also be noted that Minnesota has not failed to cover in their L/15 attempts as Big 10 road dogs of 4 points or more and that HC Fleck is 13-3-1 ATS in his L/15 roadies vs.500 or better opposition. With revenge on board for their only home defeat last season to the Hawkeyes, I'm betting their motivation and energy will also be a deciding factor vs a side that many not have to ability to challenge them effectively after losing a heart breaker in OT last week to Northwestern.

MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games after playing 2 straight conference games .

CFB favorites playing as hosts like Iowa off one loss- exact  in OT  are 3-15 ATS L/18 when facing a winning avenging opponent like Minnesota.

CFB Home favorites like Iowa - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are 36-74 ATS for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover 1 unit reg selection

Oregon and Utah are both teams trying to come out of slumps . Both have lost 3 straight. Both are desperate for a win, and I'm betting we are in for a close one here, with the points In my betting opinion ending up being golden . Look for Ducks super star RB Royce Clayton and the Ducks home field crowd energy to lead them to cover and be the difference maker . It must be noted that in the past the Ducks when on a 0-3 SU/ATS run have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS vs a side off  consecutive losses and repeat and rinse of this historical precedent is on Saturdays agenda. Also HC Whittingham of Utah is just 1-6 ATS L/7 off consecutive losses. Also for a league wide CFB historical data base: CFB  home team vs. the money line like Oregon - off 2 consecutive road losses, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 26-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oregon Ducks to cover 1 unit reg selection

UMass has been playing some decent ball of late, and been putting a boatload of points (50x2) on the board, as was the case in recent back to back games against Ohio and in their first win of the season last week vs a weaker than expected Georgia Southern program. Despite of that, I just don't believe that these young men are quite ready to take down, a Appalachian State football program that knows how to win , and I will be fading UMass in this spot as +3 point home dogs. Remember this is a Minutemen side that has lost to Coastal Carolina, struggling Old Dominion and inconsistent Hawaii this season. Also thanks to the Minutemen recent surprising offensive explosiveness will have the full attention of a Mountaineers side  that has only two losses this season vs Georgia and Wake Forest by 1 point, which diminishes Umass chances at catching their  opponent napping, and  for a upset under dog win/cover.

APPALACHIAN ST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game.

Mountaineers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games.Minutemen are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.

CFB Underdogs of  3-3.5 to 10 points like Mass- after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Appalachian St to cover 1 unit reg selection  

Air Force for the most part has been a very competitive team with a explosive offense all season long, and must not be underestimated here in this spot vs a strong looking Colorado State football program . The Falcons took San Diego State and Navy down to the wire, teams that my own power rankings suggest are similar to Colorado States and are off conclusive back to back wins vs UNLV and Nevada. The Falcons did not even look out of place vs power 5 side Michigan losing 29-13 and staying close almost till the end. So as far as today is concerned I'm betting we have good value taking the points here with a team, that can run and gun with the best of teams, and capable of beating you SU or via the back door cover.

Air Force HC Calhoun is 13-5 ATS L/18 when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better)  Air Force 25.1 Opponent 29.3.

CFB Road underdogs like Air Force - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more), after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 81-34 ATS the L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both these sides could easily be college football poster boys for futility , with 1-7 records. But according to my own cross reference rankings, San Jose State has recently shown more of an upward trajectory than BYU , and more all overall improvement, giving a decent Fresno State program a run for their money covering in a 27-10 loss, and playing decently in Hawaii losing 37-26 as 17 point dogs. Today I'm betting this young group will once again stay close enough for a cover or pull off the SU upset vs a BYU side that should not be a -13.5 point favorite vs anyone in the FBS. Take the points.

SAN JOSE ST is 28-12 ATS  L/40 when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less).BYU is 2-10 ATS  L/12 in home games versus terrible rushing defenses - allowing  230 or more rushing yards/game.BYU is 0-8 ATS  L/8 in all lined games this season.BYU is 2-11 ATS  L/13  in home games after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games.

CFB Road underdogs like SJ State- poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are 44-12 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Jose State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week Virginia fell asleep at the proverbial wheel and got crushed by Boston College ending an impressive 4 game winning run. Actually BC has been surprisingly offensively explosive, behind an already staunch D,  so I'm not being to hard on Virginia. Actually I expect the Cavaliers will bounce back this week, and cover and possibly spring the upset vs a Panthers side they matchup very well against, especially from a coaching perspective behind Bronco Mendenhall who I have a great deal of respect for. Meanwhile, HC Narduzzi is 4-12 ATS  L/16 in home games, has in my opinion mishandled a pretty good looking ( at least on paper) Panthers side. with that said,  I'm fading Pittsburgh here at home as favorites.

Cavaliers are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.Cavaliers are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 road gamesPanthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Panthers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games.

PITTSBURGH is 0-7 ATS  L/7  in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game.

CFB home team like Pittsburgh  - after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 21-54 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a go against  conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on Virginia to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tulsa is one very inconsistent team. There is a load of offensive talent, a lack of concentration , and a coaching staff that seems to be at the mercy of a group of young men who can come out and rock a stadium with explosive play or put you to sleep with a less than motivated performance. A few examples of this were, on display in Toledo earlier this season in the Glass Bowl against one of the MACs best teams the Rockets, taking part in a 54-51 blockbuster , almost pulling off the upset, and than in Houston taking out a decent Cougars side by a 45-17 count as DD dogs. Note:( SMU loss to Houston 35-22 in their meeting with them.) Two other tilts saw the young men from Tulsa play New Mexico and Navy very tough, losing close hard fought affairs, and than unexpected down games like their 20-14 loss at UConn last week as 6 point favorites. Now today, I expect this under rated Tulsa side, to make a game of their confrontation with SMU this week. It must be noted that Tulsa is  6-0 ATS  L/6  in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/games like SMU,  while the Mustangs are just   4-15 ATS  L/19 in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 450 or more yards/game.

TULSA is 8-1 ATS  L/9 in road games in the second half of the season over the last few seasons.

Meanwhile, SMU is off  hard fought 31-28 victory vs the Cincinnati bearcats last week, and now starting to show some chinks and their armour and maybe some fatigue as the season drags on, which is not a good omen against what can be a very high octane Canes side when their attention span is focused, as I'm betting it will be here.  SMU is 2-12 ATS  after a win by 3 or less points .

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tulsa - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game are a long term good bet going 70-36 ATS for a 66% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons.

Play on Tulsa to cover 1 unit reg selection

Eastern Michigan has played some great defensive ball all season long, and have remained competitive on a consistent basis despite of their current 5 game losing streak. Their games have been grueling and exhausting, but the one that might have broke the camels back was last weeks hard fought 20-17 loss to Western Michigan in OT.  That was truly heart breaking and you could feel the energy just completely sucked out of this young group as they stood on the sidelines after the game. Now in a huge letdown situation they go up against a torrid D, that might even be better than theirs , and a balanced Northern Illinois  Huskies offense, that is very much better their own. Lay the lumber with the Huskies.

N ILLINOIS is 10-1 ATS  L/11 after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game and 6-0 ATS  L/6 after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game and beginning to roll after a 48-17 beat-down of Bowling Green last week.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like E.Mich - after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 5-28 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Northern Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection

A lot of pundits believe that San Diego State will easily bounce back from last weeks surprising loss to Boise State ( 31-14) as their perfect season crashed and burned. But , hold your horses, I'm betting getting out of here vs a fast improving Fresno State football program will not come easily. Former California HC Tedford has really got the Bulldogs rocking winning 4 of 6 games with the losses coming to highly rated Alabama and Washington. Considering Fresno State has a top tier history of doing well with conference revenge failing to cover only once in their L/11 tries, it won't be a hard decision to back them here on the road in a key game getting  TD plus. ( Last year SDSt beat Fresno State 17-3).

SAN DIEGO ST is 11-24 ATS L/35 in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season .FRESNO ST is 9-0 ATS L/9 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers .FRESNO ST is 12-4 ATS L/16 in all lined games.

Play on Fresno State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Wyoming after losing 2 of their first three games  to begin their season have won three straight games SU/ATS, and are finally starting to perform up to expectations behind stud QB, Joh Allen who is still not in top form , but  ready to explode at any time. However, Wyoming is ranked tied for first in Red Zone offense,  and should do much better than San Diego State did last week vs Boise State . The Broncos surprised a lot of pundits last week, by beating SD State, but the truth is the Aztecs are starting to become easier to read as the season has gone on, as they just continually hand the ball to Rashad Penney . With that said, and now in a letdown scenario after their upset win, I'm betting the Broncos will have a hard time getting up for this tilt despite of being in revenge mode for a 30-28 loss at Larime last season.  

WYOMING is 8-1 ATS  L/9 vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last few seasons.BOISE ST is 0-8 ATS  L/8 as a home favorite and is 0-8 ATS  L/8 in home games after playing a conference game .

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Wyoming  - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wyoming to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both these football programs  have been playing good ball of late, as Arizona is off back to back upsets of Colorado and defensively deficient UCLA, while California is off a 37-3 beat down of formerly undefeated Washington State. It's been California's D, that has them turned around this season, and Arizona's explosive offense that made them so dangerous. So in a game I have tabbed for D vs Offense, I'm betting on the D coming out on top and helping us get the  cover.  It must also be noted that California is 13-1 ATS L/14 in this series as dogs, and once again look like loveable pups in this spot at home in Berkeley.

ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS  L/6 in road games off 2 or more consecutive overs and 0-7 ATS  L/7  in road games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Arizona's HC Rodriguez is 2-16 ATS  L/18 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is 1-8 L/9 ATS   after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

California opened as the favorite here before the line was pushed back the other way favoring Arizona. The guys who work the other side of the counters in Vegas have some sharp minds, and despite of some early smart money coming in on Arizona I'm siding with the boys who make a living helping build Vegas in this spot.  The line ORIGINALLY OPENED  this way most probably because of some interesting long term trends that show , a CFB home team vs. the money line like California  - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog, in October games are 43-14 in the follow up for a 75% conversion rate for SU bettors and also that a home team vs. the money line like the Bears- off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog, in weeks 5 through 9 are 46-14 for a 77% conversion rate for bettors dating back 25 seasons.

Play on the California Golden Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection

Michigan enters this game ranked No.1 in the nation in defense, and are giving up just 14.7 ppg. Granted they have a horrendous time moving the ball downfield, but if they get can Karan Higdon, going downhill today I'm betting we have an extroidnary chance at covering . Last week he had 200 plus yards and looks like he is shifting into top gear just when Harbaugh and company will need it most. I know Penn State looks like the team to beat in the Big 10, but despite of Michigan inconsistencies this season, must be respected as HC Harbaugh is 7-1 in his career vs undefeated opposition with the only loss coming by 4 points. Penn State has a bye week , but being well rested may become a secondary concern, as the offense may find themselves rusty against a nasty D, that will be out to hand out some big time pain this week.

PENN ST is 2-14 ATS  L/16 vs. good passing defenses - allowing 150 or less passing yards/game with a negative margin of 6.1 ppg. PENN ST is 6-25 ATS  L/31 versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 4.25 or less yards/play.

Penn State HC Franklin is just 9-19-1 ATS vs .750 or better foes like Michigan.

Penn State is 1-13 as a favorite when undefeated following a DD win vs a ,750 or better winning record like Michigan.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Mich - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 72-35 ATS L/25 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Rambling Wreck are more one dimensional team then ever, and are not only a run team, but a run only team as they rank 128 th in the nation in pass efficiency.  Their fairly easy to read for good Ds, which Wake owns. With Clemson on board next week, for GTech I'm betting their concentration will also be off, which is not a good omen against a very good Wake Forest team, that are 8-2 ATS in their L/10 road games. Also WAKE FOREST is 28-8 ATS  L/36 vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game. I'm betting on a well rested Wake Forest team off a bye to have the edge today vs a GTECH side off a emotional loss a Miami Fl, last week.

WAKE FOREST is 9-1 ATS L/10 as an underdog and  16-4 ATS L/20  in road games after a bye week.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like GTech - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 6-26 ATS L/32 dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 1 unit reg selection

Charlotte is a  lower tier  team, no mistake about it, but UAB is as inconsistent as they come, and despite of back to back underdog wins, in no shape or form should be TD+ road favs here as they have failed in this role 12 of the L/17 times. UAB is 7-19 ATS L/26  in road games off a win against a conference rival. (They beat over rated Middle Tenn St last week 25-23)

It must also be noted that CFB teams off back to back upset victories are not a good bet when going against below .500 opposition going just 14-30 ATS L/44 times dating back 27 seasons. Also CFB  home team vs. the money line like Charlotte- off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 27-6 for a over powering 82% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons. ( Charlotte lost last week to W.Kentucky 45-14)

In Charlottes lone home game against a viable FBS side they lost 14-3 to up trending Marshall) It was a good effort that can be replicated today against a side in a letdown/trap spot.

Play on Charlotte to cover 1 unit reg selection

Oregon has been getting beaten up on of late, losing two straight lopsided events ,  but I expect they will be in this game vs their hosts UCLA , as a more reliable QB Taylor Alle will be back under center after backup Braxton Burmeister proved he can't handle the role .  Also the return of WR Royce Freeman will also aid the Ducks here in their ability to cover. Note: Taggart is 5-0 ATS L/5 after back to back ATS losses.

Jim Mora's UCLA is a defensive and TO deficient train wreck this season. Ranking 126th in TO margin while allowing 40 ppg on average . Considering Oregon has a recent history of gauging the Bruins D in the past averaging 48.3 ppg in this series, it will be an easy decision for me to take the Ducks in this spot.UCLA is 0-7 ATS  L/7 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

CFB road team like the Ducks  - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 63-26 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on Oregon to cover 1 unit reg selection

Everyone seems to love Miss State here, and on paper maybe their right. But some other personal observations have come to light for me after watching more and more the Rebels QB Nick Fitzgerald of late. What I have noticed is that he's being allowed to let loose, in dangerous situations, as was the case last week when he threw to unnecessary interceptions in the red zone. This kid seems not to concerned with risk management, and does not measure up some passing situations well leaving his side vulnerable for pick 6s. This kid just does not get it, despite of being ultra talented. Instead I like Kentucky's mobile QB Stephen Johnson behind a explosive offense to be the better of the two today and to keep his Wildcats team in this game and get us the cover.


CFB Road underdogs like Kentucky- after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, a top-level team ( 80% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 32-8 ATS over the L/10 seasons, for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection

Arizona St is off a big win vs Washington last time out, and have been competitive all season long, and have not lost by more than 10 points this season. I know The Sun Devils might be in a letdown mode, and that Utah has owned this series of late, but they are off two grueling physical  losses in their L/2 games against Stanford and USC and should show those effects here today, and also be in a letdown state. With that said I'm taking the points here.

Utah HC Whittingham is 12-27 ATS  L/39 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

 CFB team like Arizona State  - off a upset win as a double digit underdog, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent are 23-4 ATS L/27 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection

E.Michigan has lost 4 straight games, but make no mistake about it, their a much better team  than  that and have been very competitive in those losses losing by an average of 4.25 ppg , losing by 7, 4.5.1 points respectively with 3 of those coming on the road. In the 7 point loss to Ohio at home , they had chances to win that game, against what is turning out to be one of the top teams in the MAC this season. Its the E.Michigan D, that been impressive, as was the case against an explosive SEC team in Kentucky on the road( 24-20 L). So slowing down a Western Michigans offense should not be a problem, as well as  doing enough damage offensively to get us a cover. Remember this  Broncos team is  not a PJ Fleck coached side, and no longer deserves the respect they have over the last few seasons as was the case last week in a ugly 14-13 loss to Akron.

E MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS L/7 after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers.E MICHIGAN is 15-4 ATS L/19 in all lined games and is 11-2 ATS as an underdog.
E MICHIGAN is 9-0 ATS L/9 when playing against a team with a winning record over the last couple of  seasons.

Play on E.Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tulsa is off a huge surprise 45-17 win vs Houston last week, and will now be in a letdown scenario here this week vs a UConn team that is off a upset win vs Temple last week. The difference is that UConn had a good chance to win their previous game  from the outset , while the Canes behind their 129th ranked D, were not. Now this extremely inconsistent Tulsa team is being asked to lay essentially a TD on the road, something I'm having a hard time swallowing. Especially considering how pathetic the Tulsa D has been this season.

TULSA is 8-21 ATS  L/29 versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play.CONNECTICUT is 12-3 ATS L/15  in home games off an upset win as an underdog.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like UConn - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game are 69-36 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UConn Huskies to cover 1 unit reg selection

Marshall is a team the pundits are not paying a lot of attention to this season , thanks to last seasons miserable results . However, this season, they are in big time upswing, behind a solid defense that is ranked No.2 in the nation, in red zone defense and allowed 3 of their L/4 opponents to a FG or less and the defense overall has held 4 sides to 20 points or less this season. Tonight against a Middle Tennessee State football program that has failed to cover 9 of their L/15 as home dogs, the Blue Raiders are fade material in my betting opinion

. note: the Raiders are off a upset loss last time out to UAB, 25-23 as 4 point chalk, , HC Stockstill is 2-9 ATS off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite and also 0-5 ATS /SU L/5 as a dog following a loss as a favorite.



CFB road team like Marshall - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games. are 30-7 ATS L/37 over the L/25 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 1 unit reg selection

Houston enters this game off a surprising and embarrassing loss to Tulsa last time out as DD road favorites. They looked truly asleep at the wheel in that tilt after a big revenge win vs a up trending SMU side the week before by a 35-22 count. The good news for Cougars fans is that they will take on a Memphis team that has not won here in 11 years, and play this game on home turf where the Cougars have not lost since 2014. Houston also has revenge on board for a 48-44 loss in Memphis last season, even though they put 624 yards of offense up. Considering the Tigers are off a grueling and hard fought win vs Navy last week, 30-27, I'm betting they won't have as much left in the tank in this spot vs a Houston side that is superior defensive side with 73 yard per game better stopping margin than their visiting opponents.

MEMPHIS is 0-8 ATS  L/8 off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less and 8-19 ATS  off 2 straight wins against conference rivals. Houston has won 18 of their L/23 revengers.

Play on the Houston Cougars to cover 1 unit reg selection

Washington 6-0 is a fine team and ranked among the best in the nation. Many even believe they have a chance at a National Championship. However, tonight, I'm betting they will not easily get past a Arizona State side, that is fresh off a bye week and has the ability to fire back with some offensive fire power, ranking No.1 in red zone offense in the nation and get us a cover from many different perspectives, ie back door, shoot out or even an outright upset. I know this looks like a walk in the park for the mighty Huskies, but this series, has seen the Sun Devils win 10 of the L/11 games SU while covering 11 straight meetings. It must also be noted that Arizona State has covered 4 straight as DD home dogs, and that week 7 of the Huskies football schedule has been a curse for the program from a ATS perspective as they have failed to cover 11 straight times.

ARIZONA ST is 13-3 ATS L/16  in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. ARIZONA ST is 11-1 ATS  L/12  in home games when playing with 2 weeks .

Arizona States HC Graham is 15-4 ATS  L/19  in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less .

Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Michigan State played a grueling/physical defensive game against the Michigan Wolverines last time out and came out on top via a 14-10 score as underdogs. Now drained exhausted and in an emotional letdown scenario they go against a hard working PJ Fleck lead side that will primed and motivated to get a win as home dogs.

 It must be noted that after winning their first 3 games the Gophers have lost back to back games and need a victory badly and have responded well of adversity in the recent past as is evident by these trends.Golden Gophers are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.Golden Gophers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.

MICHIGAN ST is 0-6 ATS  L/6 as a road favorite.Spartans are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Underdog is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings.Spartans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Play on the Minnesota Gophers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Utah dominates at the line of scrimmage, and has some of the top defensive numbers in the PAC12. Meanwhile, USC, is banged up on the line of scrimmage, and just don't have enough viable healthy components at the moment to mix and match on the offensive or defensive line. That was the reason Washington State beat the Trojans, and why this could end up in a surprising upset here for Utah. I know the Utes are going with backup senior QB Troy Williams , because no.1 man under center Tyler Huntely is injured.  However, it must be noted that Williams started all 12 games last season, so its not like he can't manage this teams offense, even though  it will just not be as dynamic and instead revert back to a ground heavy attack that eats clock.

Utah's HC Whittingham is 7-0 ATS  L/7  in road games after a loss by 3 or less points, which happened against Stanford last time out. USC is 0-7 ATS L/7  in home games after 5 consecutive games where they committed 2 or more turnovers.UTAH is 12-3 ATS  L/15 as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.UTAH is 16-5 ATS  L/21  in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better )

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Utah - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 27-5 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Utah to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week the over rated UTSA Roadrunners got smacked around by southern Miss and lost as 10 point chalk. Now they come into North Texas as favorites again, and I feel very much like the wrong team is favored here. You have to remember that all three of UTSAs wins have come against winless sides, and now against a explosive Mean Green offense that has put 46, and 43 points on the board in back to back games and out stating their competition by 110 ypg   their in trouble. With the added incentive of payback for the Mean Green for a 31-17 road loss they suffered last season, to the Roadrunners, I'm betting the home team covers.

NORTH TEXAS is 18-7 ATS  L/25 off 2 straight wins against conference rivals.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 UTSA - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 22-57 dating back 5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on North Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection

LA Monroe have won 3 straight games, but what has become obvious is that their defense is horrendous, as is evident by having allowed an of 37 ppg.  Meanwhile, Georgia State's defense has been formidable vs all but one opponent this season ( Penn St) and will be more prepared to make key stops. On offense, GState might lack fire power, but against this type of empty D, they should have a viable output that helps us cover the number.

ULM is just 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS L/11 as chalk vs .500 or better opponents.

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS K/6 in weeks 5 through 9 and  is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games against conference opponents  and is 12-3 ATS L/15  in road games.

Play on Georgia State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Western Kentucky after former HC Jeff Brohm left for Purdue  has lost their offensive effectiveness  and last week barely got by lowly UTEP by a 15-14 count.  Actually the Hilltoppers are in a desperate state as they have been out gained  in all 5 of their games this season, and are being over rated by the linesmakers here today as DD home favorites. From a value line perspective it must be noted that Charlotte is 4-1 ATS L/5 as a DD conference dog. Hey guys I know Charlotte is not exactly a quality team, but W KENTUCKY is  just 3-12 ATS  L/15  in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play and 1-9 ATS L/10 in the first half of the season .

Play on Charlotte to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week Navy unleashed its option attack out of the shotgun against Air Force and rushed for 471 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-45 victory. Considering Memphis ranks   93rd in the nation against the run its obvious to me that Memphis coach Mike Norvell and his team are in trouble this week.Navy won last year's meeting 42-28, rushing for 532 yards in a key conference victory that propelled the Midshipmen to the American Athletic Conference Western Division title and repeat performance is not out of the question here.

NAVY is 11-2 ATS L/3 as a road underdog of 3 points or less.MEMPHIS is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game and 9-21 ATS  after a win by 28 or more points and  7-26 ATS  after scoring 42 points or more last game and  2-11 ATS L/13 after scoring 50 points or more last game which happened in a lopsided win vs UConn last time out.

CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 Navy - excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 24-5 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play on Navy to cover 1 unit reg selection

LSU got the proverbial monkey off their backs last time out against Florida winning SU on the road by a 17-16 count. Now they go against an explosive Auburn side that despite of deserving respect are now a little banged up , and could be without key RB Kerryon Johnson who left his last game with hamstring issues.

With that said LSU HC Bill Orgeron and his Bayou Bengals are now in a position to get redemption for a loss they suffered to Troy State at home in their last game here, if they can upend or stay extremely competitive vs Auburn this week.

I'm betting that the home team will come out fired up and plat like their hair is on fire, and give Auburn a run for their money.

Note:LSU running backs Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams have been hobbled by leg injuries, but both should be ready to go Saturday and both are said to being doing much better.

LSU has won 8 straight meetings in this series , while Auburn  are just 1-10 ATS away with conference revenge. Auburn is also 0-9 ATS/SU L/9 on the road vs a conference side off a ATS win.

CFB home team like LSU - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 37-13 ATS for a 74% conversion rate for bettors over the L/5 seasons.

Play on LSU to cover 1 unit reg selection

Bowling Greens offense is horrendous and cannot move the ball with consistency as is evident by averaging just 19.5 ppg. 'm betting their output will be muted again, and that they will just t try to stay competitive by eating clock time and put everyone who bothers to watch this game to sleep. Considering Ohio is pretty banged up and have a long list of injured and walking wounded I expect despite of  this being a conference game, that they will be conservative in their approach as they try to stay healthy for bigger games ahead. This combination will make for what will be a low scoring tilt that remains on the low side of the number.

OHIO U is 10-0 UNDER  L/10 against conference opponents with a combined average of 41.5 ppg going on the board.

BOWLING GREEN is 6-0 UNDER  L/6 vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse with a combined average of 54.8 ppg going on the board. 

OHIO U is 8-1 UNDER  L/9 after having won 3 out of their last 4 games with a combined average of 49.4 ppg getting scored.

BOWLING GREEN is 8-0 UNDER  L/8  in home games after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games with a combined 41.3 ppg getting scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 Bowling Green - after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games, in October games are  80-37 UNDER over the L/10 seasons.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

Buffalo is of a grueling 5 OT loss last week vs Western Michigan by a 71-68 count in now will be exhausted and in a huge let down scenario. Now they go against a Northern Illinois program that leads the nation in tackles for a loss and has owned this series in the past winning 9 straight times by an average of 29 ppg. Northern Illinois after a leisurely 24-3 win vs Kent State last week, will be fresh enough to own and cover this game as well.

BUFFALO is 4-17 ATS  L/21 off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival and is 2-10 ATS   off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival

.N ILLINOIS is 8-0 ATS  L/8 after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers and 11-1 ATS  L/112  after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins and also 6-0 ATS  L/6 after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game .N ILLINOIS is 11-3 ATS  L/`4 in road games. College Football FBS road  chalk are 42-4 SU  this season and 36-8-2 ATS vs sides like Buffalo off a loss.

Play on Northern Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection

Air Force will be a letdown situation today against UNLV, after dueling against their rivals Navy last week and losing. It must be noted that the Falcons are 0-7 ATS L/7 after playing against the Midshipman, and UNLV is 2-0 ATS on the road this season, and 4-1 ATS away dating back to last season. I'm betting on the Rebels run game that is averaging 266 ypg to run over a Air force run D, that is allowing 254 ypg.

AIR FORCE is 0-6 ATS  L/6 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 425 or more yards/game.

CFB road teams like UNLV - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 turnovers/game committed or less), after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are a long term 136-83 ATS for a 62% conversion rate.

Play on the UNLV Rebels to cover 1 unit reg selection

Oh how the mighty have fallen . BYU enters this game ranked 126th in pass efficiency this season   and 124th in time of possession and have been outscored by a 104-37 count in their L/3 losses. Meanwhile, Miss State after a fast start to their campaign were bent over by top tier nationally ranked Auburn and Georgia ,  and are now angry and very much ready for redemption against what is now a struggling Cougars side that cannot move the ball. I know the linesmakers are asking us to lay the lumber in a 3+ TD Spread, but I'm betting we have value here with well rested  chalk off their bye week.

Cougars are 0-7 ATS L/7 vs SEC.

Lay the points with Miss State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Troy in their last trip to the gridiron defeated LSU on the road , in a huge upset as 21 point under dogs. Now they come home to play South Alabama in conference action off a bye week and despite of being rested I'm betting it will be very hard not to be in an emotional let down scenario here as  big DD favorites.  It must  also be noted that none  of Troys 3 wins vs FBS opponents have come by more than 5 points , with two coming by a FG margin. After the huge win at LSU, the Trojans now also have a huge target on their backs, and you can bet South Alabama will be primed and extremely motivated to pull of an upset of their own. With that said, I'm expecting a very hard fought affair here with the points ending up being golden. The last two meetings in this series in 2015, 2016 were decided by a 6 and 7 points respectively and similar margin of victory is what I'm projecting tonight.

S ALABAMA is 15-4 ATS  L/19 in road games in the first half of the season. TROY is 0-6 ATS L/6 when the total is between 49.5 and 56 dating back to last season.

Play on South Alabama to cover 1 unit reg selection

Utah (4-0) well rested off a bye week enters this PAC 12 game against Stanford (3-2) as the most under rated team in the conference and must be respected here as home dogs. This Utes team is experienced and tough as nails and now have a viable offense to go along with a D that must be considered of the top tier variety. Meanwhile,  the Cardinal despite of pre season billing , as conference front runners, have been a disappointment in some ways especially defense , as is evident by allowing USC 42 points , UCLA 34 and Arizona State 24 points respectively. With that said, I expect the Utes to make more key defensive stops today and get us the cover , behind a multi faceted offense that can do damage.

UTAH is 34-17 ATS L/51 after a bye week and is 36-19 ATS  L/55 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Utah HC Whittingham is 18-9 ATS  l/27 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) with the average score ringing in at Utah 30.3 and opposition 25. My own estimates suggest that Utah will score at least 28 points, which is a positive indicator when considering that the Utes are 8-1 ATS L/9 when they score 28 or more points winning by an average of two TDs a game.

Play on the Utah Utes to cover

Projected score: Utah 30 Stanford 28

Memorial Stadium will be rocking in Lincoln, Neb. A sellout string of 358 games dating to Nov. 3, 1962 will have the Cornhuskers with a full house as they take on the Wisconsin Badgers this Saturday night.

In their two most recent battles against Wisconsin they held the Badgers to 23 points and lost by 2 and 6 points respectively. I know Nebraska has started a little slowly this season, but their have been flashes of brilliance, and I'm betting the disrespect associated with  DD home underdog role, will ignite them even further. The Huskers are 5-1 ATS L/6 as conference home dog of 5 points or more , while the Badgers are 1-5 ATS as a DD road favorite vs a side off a win. ( Nebraska beat Illinois last week)

I expect the wild card to be a steadily improving Nebraska D, under the tutelage of  first-year defensive coordinator Bob Diaco.
The Blackshirts have allowed only two offensive touchdowns in the past 14 quarters. Last week, they held Illinois to 199 yards of offense, marking the third straight game in which they've held opponents to fewer than 250 yards.

NEBRASKA is 11-1 ATS L/12 in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game  and is 13-4 ATS  L/17 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season. NEBRASKA is also 22-9 ATS  in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better )

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Nebraska - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 62-29 ATS for a 66% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons.

Play on Nebraska to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Alabama has been obliterating opponents and crushed back to back SEC foes by a combined 125-3 count and are now because of this domination being made huge favorites vs a team getting very little respect from the public and linesmakers. Meanwhile, their hosts Texas A&M after losing their opener to UCLA after blowing a 44-10 lead and losing 45-44 have won 4 straight and if it were not for that epic crash would be 5-0 on the season. Now we have a situation where Sumlin and company can get some redemption, for their opening embarrassment if they can stay competitive.  With that said,  I'm betting  that the Aggies leave everything on the field today, and cover the number. (Texas A&M has covered 4 of their L/5 as DD home dogs)

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like the Aggies - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 40-11 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road favorites like Alabama - excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 RY/game or better), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are just 9-31 ATS for a 78% conversion rate for bettors during the 25 seasons.

Play on Texas A&M to cover

Kansas State opened up Big 12 play with a victory against Baylor and will now head back on the road to face the Texas Longhorns on Saturday at Texas Memorial Stadium.   .K-State

defense remains it strong point and  has held its first four opponents to under 21 points, and I'm betting on Texas having issues scoring here today.

K-State has run over  teams from the state of Texas of late as is evident by the Cats having won their last six confrontations against teams from Texas, including all five major FBS programs in the state last season (Texas, Texas A&M, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor.Since 2011, K-State is 16-11 in Big 12 play on the road and should be respected here as underdogs.

K-State D is their staple, but the it must be noted that the offense has been one of the best red zone groups over the last few seasons as the Wildcats are the only team to finish in the top-15 nationally in red zone offense in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

KANSAS ST is 21-9 ATS  L/30 as a road underdog of 7 points or less.KANSAS ST is 13-4 ATS  L/17  in road games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games. HC Snyder is 30-17 ATS   versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game or more.

CFB Road underdogs like KState - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 125-64 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection

 I keep looking for reasons to downgrade the SMU Mustnags, but I cannot do it based on consistent performances. They have averaged 48.5 ppg, and  scored 58, 54,36, 44, 49 points respectively in 5 tilts , with their lowest output coming against a 5-0 TCU. Now they go against a tough cougars D, that trys to eat clock with s lead. But the biggest problem with Houston is that their offense stumbles alot and is not as cohesive as their defense. Here against a extremely explosive SMU attack, I'm betting their in trouble. I know that Houston has revenge in mind for a 38-16 set back as home favs last season vs SMU, but you don't always get what you want, especially against a team like the Mustangs that matches up very well against them. With that said, getting points here makes for a viable investment option.


SMU is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after scoring 37 points or more last game and 7-0 ATS  L/7 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like SMU - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games 50 -18 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs like SMU - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 38-11 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SMU Mustangs to cover

Southern Miss looked really good in their first three games,  until the wheels fell of the proverbial truck  as they blew a decent lead vs North Texas last week. I know UTSA is undefeated in their first three games, but they continue to shoot themselves in the foot as they take a boat load full penalties ( no.1 in the nation) and that I'm betting that will be their downfall this week, vs a Southern Miss program that will be hell bent on getting some pay back for a 55-32 loss here last season. It must be noted that Southern Miss out gained the Roadrunners in that game piling up 562 yards in offense but lost because of 3 turnovers.

Play on Southern Miss to cover 1 unit reg selection

Colorado State will be playing their 3 rd straight road game this week, after flying out to Hawaii and beating up on the Warriors by A 51-21 count. The Rams now tired and jet lagged will be at a disadvantage  vs a feisty and somewhat surprisingly explosive Utah State Aggies side  that has put 101 points on the board in their 2 games.

Utah is 28-6-1 L/35 at home SU.

UTAH ST is 10-2 ATS  L/12 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 and is 10-2 ATS    in home games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.

CFN Road favorites like Colorado State - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 6-27 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 82% go against conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on the Utah State Aggies to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Terps controlled Minnesota last week in a 31-24 win and held the Gophers to a season-low 309 yards , while rushing for 262 yards against a D that was ranked No. 1 in the country against the run. Now this week against a Ohio State program that smashed the Terps for the worst defeat in program history last year (62-3),  I expect a very motivated effort and more importantly a cover by the visitors in this spot.

OHIO ST is 2-10 ATS  L/12   in home games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. HC Meyer is 4-17 ATS   after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game which happened against Rutgers in a lopsided 56-0 win.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Ohio State - after playing their last game on the road, in October games are just 14-40 ATS in their follow up game for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs like Maryland - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 105-52 ATS over the L/5 seasons for 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Maryland to cover 1 unit reg selection

LSU did not prepare well for Troy State last week and were upset by a 24-21 count. The Bayou Tigers probably got caught looking to this game vs Florida. Now this week a big meeting took place on  campus and the teams coaches going forward are supposedly now on the same page, according to a press release. Whatever, that means. Truth be told this meeting was more of , what the hell happened question and answer  session. But like the old saying goes , On Any Given Sunday or Saturday in this case, any team can pull off a win.  With that said, Nothing has changed for LSU , its still a good program and still loaded with talent, and despite of their recent struggles are more than capable of upending a Florida Gators side now operating under a new QB Fileipe Franks as a  starting pivot Jack Del Rio is out with an injury. Florida won last year's meeting 16-10, stopping the Tigers on two rushes from the Gators' 1 on the final two plays of the game and now with revenge on board and HC Orgeron on the hot seat, I expect we see the best the Tigers have to offer.

LSU is 27-13 ATS   in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses  and is 15-4-1 ATS as a dog following a SU favorite defeat, including 12-1-1 ATS when facing a better than .700 opponent.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Gators - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 19-48 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on LSU to cover 1 unit reg selection

Florida State after not playing for three weeks because of hurricane  cancellations are taking  time to jell this season, especially after losing their starting QB Deondre Francois. But this Seminoles program is deep and talented, and now I'm betting we see them at their best this week vs a very good Miami Florida team . It must be noted that  Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher is 43-7 SU at home, in his career and has covered 14 of 17 vs undefeated opposition like the Canes including 7-1 ATS at home. FLORIDA ST is 20-8 ATS L/28 off a road no-cover where the team won as a favorite, and are  23-9 L/32 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.Fisher is 10-2 ATS  vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game. Considering Florida State has won 7 straight meetings in this series straight up, and has covered 5 straight as dogs it will not be a hard decision taking them as home pups  in this spot. 

Play on Florida State to cover   

Penn State is turning into a Big 10 contender, but Northwestern is not intimated by them in them in the  least as they have beaten them in back to back meetings. It must be also noted that Penn State has failed in 6 straight with conference revenge in road games,  and with HC Frankilin   3-11-1 ATS  and 1-7 SU and have not covered once during that span vs teams like Northwestern that have allowed 26 points or less, the Lions don't look like solid favorites

. I know Penn State has regained a lot of their tarnished respect back with some wins over the last few seasons, but not all is perfect with the football program on the field, as they have struggled with their offensive line of late, and their running game, and their overall numbers outside of the win column are also a concern. I also know Northwestern might seem like a disappointment to some who thought they turned a corner towards bigger and better things this season, but the season is still young, and today I'm betting we see them at their best.

PENN ST is 8-19 ATS  L/27  in road games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more which happened in a 45-14 win vs Indiana last week.

Play on Northwestern to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week the Demon Deacons showed me their toughness in  a hard fought 26-19 home loss to Florida State. Its Wake Forests D  makes them a formidable underdog as they are ranked 29th in total yards allowed (317.2 ypg), 32nd vs the pass (184.4 ypg) and 52nd vs rushing attacks (132.8 ypg), and are allowing just 14.4 ppg, which ranks them 13th in the nation.The Deacons returned 19 starters off last season's team, including senior quarterback John Wolford. Meanwhile, Clemson off a road win vs VTech and out yarded by 10 yards are now exhausted after playing three top 15 football programs during the month of September. With that said, I will not be surprised if the hard working Demon Decons catch Dabo Swinney and company in a letdown spot and get us the cover.  

Wake Forests HC Dave Clawson is 11-2 ATS as a underdog of 19 or more points, including 6-0 ATS when they have a .500 or greater record. Meanwhile, Clemson is just 1-6-1 ATS as a conference home favorite of 15 or more points

. WAKE FOREST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. CLEMSON is 2-14 ATS  L/16 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Clemson - after playing their last game on the road, in October games are 14-40 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors over the L/5 seasons.Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Clemson - off 1 or more consecutive unders, excellent offensive team - scoring 35 or more points/game are 13-38 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 1 unit reg selection

BYU has really fallen in every ones power rankings , but this team is still capable of a decent effort here in their own digs (59-12 L/71 SU L/12 seasons), and must not be disrespected or underestimated vs a Boise State football program that as failed to cover 12 of their L/15 games overall, and have been out yarded while allowing 29 ppg this season. It must also be noted that the Cougars  are 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 when on a 4 game skid, and have won 8 straight at home SU when off a loss as a favorite as was the case in last weeks negative outcome to Utah State.

BOISE ST is 0-7 ATS  L/7 after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is 1-8 ATS   after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game.

BYU is 30-0 SU at home since 2006 against opposition sides that allow more than 28 PPG like Boise State.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Boise State - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are a long term 35-68 ATS for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

BYU to cover  1 unit reg selection

Everyone loves the offensive explosiveness of the Louisville Cards behind the legs and arm of super athletic LaMar Jackson. But what few seem to recognize is the inconsistency of the Cardinals defense, which is not of the top tier variety, as was the case against Clemson allowing 47 points, and N.Carolina 35 and Purdue 28. The only two teams that did not run over their D, was the bumbling duo of Kent St and  Murray State.  Meanwhile, NC State can play a tough brand of defense, and have shown their propensity as dogs when they upset Florida State by a 27-21 count. The Wolfpack are on a current 4 game win streak, and still have not peaked in my opinion. With revenge on board I expect this 22 returning starter side, to be wound up to get payback for a ugly and merciless  54-13 beat-down at Louisville last season.  

Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.Cardinals are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Cardinals are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points NC State - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 88-45 ATS dating back 24 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NC State to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Nevada enters this game at 0-4, but they have been very competitive according to my own numbers (not so much last week vs a great looking Wash St side) but overall stats and power rankings and must not be underestimated.  Meanwhile, Fresno State despite of a 1-2 record are according to my own numbers, no more than -5.5 to 6 point home favorite,. I know that the Wolfpack could be with out RB Jaxon Kincaide, but as I have said before, that position is the most easily filled position in College Football, and the Pack can fill the void if need be. With that said, I'm betting on Nevada off a bye week  covering what I believe to be a generous spread. Wolf Pack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.

NEVADA is 8-1 ATS   after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game .Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Fresno State.Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.FRESNO ST is 7-22 ATS   after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games.

Play on Nevada to cover

Clemson owns a great football program and I have a lot of respect for them. But tonight I'm going against them vs a side that matches up well head to head with them, the VTech Hokies. In last seasons ACC Championship game the Tigers pulled off a 42-35 win and now pay back is on Justin Fuente mind. It must be noted as great as Clemson is, they are just 3-7 ATS as 10 point or less away favs, and 4-9 ATS L/13 vs a conference side with revenge. Meanwhile, VTech is 7-0 ATS L/7 at home with ACC revenge as a underdog. It must also be noted that National champs are 0-6 ATS away L.37 years, when laying points against an undefeated opponent.

VIRGINIA TECH is 10-2 ATS  L/12 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season.CLEMSON is 6-20 ATS  L/26 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight. VTech has covered 6 of the L/9 in this series including 2 of 3 here at home.

CFB Road favorites like Clemson - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are just 12-37 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.

Play on VTech to cover 1 unit reg selection

Lane Kiffin and Florida Atlantic (1-3) might not be putting many  wins up on the board , but they are showing steady improvement. Last week against a very strong Buffalo Bulls football program they went toe to toe losing a 34-31 heartbreaker as 3 point road dogs . Now this week as they peak  I am betting their  ready to notch a home  victory vs a banged up Middle Tennessee State (2-2) side, that has starting QB Brent Stockstill suffering with a shoulder injury and key wide receiver, Richie James dealing with an ankle injury. It must also be noted RB Shane Tucker is also banged up.  If any of them play they are expected to be less than 100%. Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Florida Atlantic - excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 35-11 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on Florida Atlantic to cover

LSU looks like they have problems and  HC Orgeron is on the hot seat. Another tumultuous game is now on the Horizon vs a feisty Troy group that is a perfect 4-0 L/4 as 21 or more point dogs.  As a matter of fact Orgeron is his career is just 10-25 SU vs an above .500 side. That is not a good omen for a LSU gridiron group that utilizes RB Derrius Guice a great deal to move the ball, and with him banged up, and no one as talented as him to take his place, I'm  negative on the Bayou Bengals chances at covering.

LSU is 2-12 ATS L/14   in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.LSU is 7-18 ATS  L/25 as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points.

CFB Road underdogs like Troy - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 103-52 dating back 10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Troy to cover 1 unit reg selection

Michigan State outs yarded Notre Dame last week by 141 yds, but still found themselves on the wrong end of a lopsided score thanks to no less than three costly turnovers and a boatload full of penalty yards. Now this week, with less pressure on them to perform I expect they beat up on a Iowa team that is completely deflated after a hugely emotional loss to Penn State last week. The Hawkeyes played their hearts out, and have nothing to show for it and  now will have nothing left in the tank for this tilt. With Michigan on board next week, you can bet we will see the best the Spartans here.

Play on Michigan State to cover 1 unit reg selection

This Buffalo football program has come a long way over the last few seasons, and are now in a position to challenge for a MAC Championship. The Bulls played Big 10 opponent Minnesota very tough in their opener losing by a 17-7 count and are 2-1 since.   Now they go against a 0-3 Kent State side, that has been out yarded by an average of 352 yards per game so far this season. With said, I'm betting this very good Buffalo Bulls  team comes out here with their helmets on fire as  they look to avenge last years 44-20 drubbing at home vs the Flashes. It must be noted that the host team is 0-7 ATS L/7 in this series.

KENT ST is 0-9 ATS  after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game and  is 0-10 ATS  after gaining 2.75 or less yards/play in their previous game.

CFB Home underdogs like Kent St - after 2 straight losses by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 18-46 ATS over the last 10 seasons for a 72% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection

Florida State (0-2) looked rusty after an extended layoff, because of Hurricane Irma,  vs NC State and lost 27-21. But this team is just to talented not to get up off the matt and get things going, even with star QB Deandre Francois out with an injury. I know Wake Forest is a fine team, but the Seminoles thrive vs top tier defenses as Fisher is 10-1 ATS   vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game winning SU by more than 20 points per game on average.  

 FLORIDA ST is 38-22 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread.  
 

CFB Road teams like Florida State with a 0-2 record, playing as road favorites are 5-0 ATS vs a undefeated side like Wake Forest (4-0) dating back 20 seasons. 

Florida State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Vanderbilt got blasted by No.1 Alabama last week, by an embarrassing 59-0 count. Now looking to get some pride and respectability back I'm betting the Commodores come out here and give a Gators program off back to back last minute wins vs Tennessee and Kentucky , a run for their money.  The Gators after those aforementioned victories will now find themselves in a letdown spot, and showcase what has become a lethargic  inconsistent attack that lives and dies via a internal horse shoe wedged deep inside of them. Both these teams can play a strong grinding defensive style of football, and that's what I'm betting happens today in what will be closer game than the line indicates. Thus getting points here will be golden in my humble opinion.

VANDERBILT is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread dating back to last season! Vandys HC Mason is 9-2 ATS L/11 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points Florida - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 13-39 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on Vanderbilt to cover 1 unit reg selection

Hawaii played a very good game last time out despite of losing to Wyoming. They outplayed their opponent and still did not find the win column. Now jetlagged and downtrodden, an emotional let down scenario, is at hand when they play the Colorado State Rams. After staying competitive vs a extremely tough Alabama program last time out, and scoring 23 points in a cover, this will seem like a walk in the park for the Rams.

COLORADO ST is 6-0 ATS  L/6 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more.COLORADO ST is 18-6 ATS  versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 yards/play or more. COLORADO ST is 23-8 ATS L/31   vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.HAWAII is 4-13 ATS  L/17 against conference opponents.HAWAII is 0-6 ATS   after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.HAWAII is 1-8 ATS L/9 off a road loss.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Colorado State  - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 31-8 ATS  for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado State to cover  1 unit reg selection

Colorado State is a explosive side with a lot of offensive talent. Against a defensively challenged team like Hawaii I'm betting they unload for a boatload full of points. Meanwhile, Hawaii, has proven they can score in bunches, and will reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own  in what I am betting will be a high scoring affair.

COLORADO ST in its L/6 games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play have seen a combined score of 74.3 ppg go on the board.COLORADO ST is 9-1 L/10 OVER  in road games vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game with a combined average of 66.5 ppg getting scored.HAWAII is 15-1 OVER L/16 off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival which happened vs Wyoming last time out in a 28-21 loss. The combined average score of those games rings in at 66.5 ppg.

Play on the OVER 1 unit reg selection

USC( 4-0) No.5  enter this game ranked very highly ,  thanks in part to an early season DD win vs a tough Stanford group. Other than that victory, they have barely gotten past three of their opponents. Now here against No.16 Washington State (4-0) their undefeated season is in jeopardy vs a HC Mike Leach team that is 9-1 ATS as a dog vs a undefeated side like USC. It must also be noted that Washington States D, is 100 ypg better than the Trojans at this point in the season, and will be the difference maker here tonight in a tilt featuring two explosive offenses.

WASHINGTON ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game .WASHINGTON ST is 9-1 ATS  L/10 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play.WASHINGTON ST is 8-1 ATS L/9  in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return .USC is 0-8 ATS L/8  in road games off 2 no-covers where the team won as a favorite.WASHINGTON ST is 13-3 ATS  L/16 when the total is greater than or equal to 63.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Washington State- quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 49-17 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington State to cover 1 unit reg selection

After facing LSU , Utah, and Wisconsin, going against Utah State for BYU will be like a walk in the park even though they are expected to be without starting QB Tanner Magnum. Those games toughened up this Mormon football program and have them ready to compete here this week. Utah State is coming off a lopsided win vs downtrodden San Jose State last time out, but it must be noted that Utah State has logged a lot air miles so far this season, and may finally have a down game. The Aggies travelled out to Wisconsin to begin their season, than all the way home to Utah to play Idaho St in week 2, and than back east to play Wake Forest and than back to San Jose State on the West Coast. Tired is the best way to describe the Aggies. Also Utah State is just  are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win and have covered just 3 of their L/10 vs a non conference opponent. Aggies are also 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. MWC and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

UTAH ST is 1-8 ATS L/9 as an underdog losing SU by an average of 23.7 ppg.

Play on BYU to cover 1 unit reg selection

Duke coach David Cutcliffe doesn't like that his Blue Devils are playing a Friday night home game against No. 14 Miami and has it made known publicly . I don't like the fact that Friday night football exists because it should be for high schools," Cutcliffe said to the Raleigh News & Observer. So he's not in a good mood and should have his team take it out on his opposition the Miami Fl Canes.Last year, Miami topped Duke 40-21 in Miami Garden, Fla.,last season, and now the smell of revenge is in the air. With Miami just 3-7ATS as road fav vs an undefeated team and 0-5 as chalk of 7 points or less Ill recommend we pull the trigger on the Blue Devils.

MIAMI is 4-14 ATS L/18 after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.

 CFB Road favorites like Miami Fl- excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or less RY/game or less ), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 8-31 ATS L/25 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

 Play on the Duke Blue Devils to cover 1 unit reg selection

So Texas is a favorite here based on reputation and past pedigree, but definitely not because their current form. This is a team that even their greatest high profile fan Matthew McConaughey could  not feel good about. Tom Herman has a great reputation , but he is still dealing with a  young gridiron group  dealing with a Charlie Strong hangover, and they will  take  a while to jell. So here on the road against a feisty Iowa State side, I'm betting the visiting Longhorns who are 1-4 ATS L/5 as conference road chalk will find it tough to get out of here with a cover. It must be noted that Iowa State is 8-0-1 ATS L/9 as underdogs of 16 points or less vs a below .500 team with Matt Campbells teams covering 6 of their L/8 as a home dog.

TEXAS is 2-12 ATS  L/14  in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season and is 6-16 ATS    in road games against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game.IOWA ST is 9-2 ATS   after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.Campbell is 13-4 ATS L/17  in home games in the first half of the season .

Play on the Iowa State Cyclones to cover 1 unit reg selection

Rosen jumped out  to the top of the Heisman watch list after throwing for 3,668 yards and 23 touchdowns as a freshman in 2015 and than last season , the hopes for  UCLAs winning the PAC 12 and making a big Bowl appearance was erased because of the Rosen injury.  Now after his triumphant return to the gridiron which saw the Bruins stage a miraculous 45-44 comeback win vs Texas A&M after being down by more than 30 points at one point , the legend of Josh Rosen continues to grow. So far this season he's been lights out, and despite of losing a 48-45 heartbreaker last week in Memphis he must be respected here vs Stanford just because of the share fire power this Bruins team has. Yes, they're defense is their Achilles heel, and Mora's team  will give a load of points on a regular basis, to strong offenses, but their own offense will keep them in most games, as I am betting  will be the case this week vs the Cardinal who are not a confident group at the moment after coming off two straight losses, to USC and San Diego State.

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Stanford  - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 15-42 ATS for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors during the past 10 seasons.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like UCLA - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 51-19 ATS for a 73% conversion rate for bettors dating back 10 seasons.

Play on the UCLA Bruins to cover 1 unit reg selection

Notre Dame goes on the road for the 2nd week in a row. Last week , the band wagon crawlers came out of the woodwork , after the Irish defeated Boston College. However defeating this  Michigan State program will be a much harder conquest. The Spartans enter this game as the nations 3rd ranked D, and must not be disrespected on offense either as a deep set of backs could easily wreak havoc on a side, that may find it difficult  adjusting and dealing with a team that can actually move the ball, after facing Boston Colleges horrendous offense last week. It must be noted that Notre Dame has covered in just 2 of the L/13 games in this series, and the Spartans  DanAntonio  is 17-2-1 ATS L/20 at home taking on sides off a SU/ATS victory.

MICHIGAN ST is 15-3 ATS L/18 allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games.MICHIGAN ST is 17-4 ATS L/21 after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games.

NOTRE DAME is 2-14 ATS  L/16.  in road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game

CBB Road favorites like the Fighting Irish- excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 RY/game or better), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 7-31 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.

Play on Michigan State to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Florida Gators have beaten the Kentucky Wildcats 30 straight times. It does not seem to matter which team is better at the time of the meetings. With that said, and after watching Florida fail away on offense in their first few games of the season, they suddenly woke up with a 63 yard hail Mary pass to defeat Tennessee 26-20 last week, and  will now be sky high , entering this game  and I'm betting be jolted into getting some more points on the board With that said, the Gators defense is extremly solid and of the top tier variety and here against a Kentucky team that can be inconssitent with their attack a times , I'm betting their in trouble. The Wildcats have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 as dogs of 10 points or less. With that said, I recommend we take the Gators in this spot. 

FLORIDA is 10-2 ATS    in road games after 2 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers.

Florida to cover 1 unit reg selection 

I'm betting Florida Atlantics new HC  Lane Kiffin and company after having time to work with his new team is finally ready to make his mark. It takes time to have a team jell, and now with 3 games in their back pockets against the likes of Wisconsin and Navy and a blow out tune up win last week 45-0 vs Bet Cooke, Kiffins Owls behind 14 returning starters and a talented quarterback  will now be fine tuned to take out (cover) Buffalo as visitors. 

FLA ATLANTIC is 7-0 ATS L/7  in road games after scoring 42 points or more last game.

CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Florida Atlantic  - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game are 26-5 ATS for a 84% conversion rate for bettors dating back 25 seasons

.CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Buffalo - after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 9-30 ATS L/39 dating back 10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Florida Atlantic Owls to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week SMU was hyped up to play in state rivals TCU , and despite of a valiant effort still got blown out by DDs. Now in a letdown situation the Mustangs face a very staunch and experienced Arkansas State team that must never be underestimated. Arkansas State struggled last year to score despite of a top tier D,  but after HC Blake Anderson took control of the QBS in the off season  they look extremely cohesive now , and buoy the teams chances at repeating as and one of the top Sun Belt football programs as well as staying competitive today against a very explosive offense .According to my own power rankings the Red Wolves  have a 52% chance of pulling off the SU upset, and  a much higher probability of more importantly covering the spread.

SMU is 5-16 ATS  L/21  in home games after playing 2 straight non-conference games.

Home favorites like SMU - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after a loss by 17 or more points are 25-58 ATS L/83 L/5 years for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Arkansas State Red Wolves to cover 1 unit reg selection

Middle Tennessee State enters this game off a DD loss to Minnesota last time out by a 34-3 count, and are banged with key wide receiver, Richie James at less than 100% or expected to miss with a ankle injury as well as starting QB Brent Stockstill who still questionable with a shoulder injury. These key contributors will effect the cohesiveness of the Blue Raiders, making them fade material tonight vs a desperate Bowling Green team that needs a win badly after 3 straight losses.

BOWLING GREEN is 25-12 ATS  when playing against a losing team with a (Win Pct. 25% to 40% like Middle Tennessee State.BOWLING GREEN is 13-4 ATS L/17 after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread.BOWLING GREEN is 6-0 ATS L/6  in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Bowling Green - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after allowing 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 33-10 ATS for a 77% conversion rate for bettors over the L/10 seasons.

Play on the Bowling Green to cover 1 unit reg selection

Air Force played valiantly against Michigan last week covering as DD dogs, behind a top tier defense, so going up against San Diego State side that has an upper tier D, won't be an issue. Meanwhile, San Diego State enters this tilt off a DD dog win vs Stanford, last week in a grueling close  game and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot vs a Falcons side that has won 5 straight at home as underdogs. This game has the makings of an extremely close affair.

The Falcons have surrendered only one offensive touchdown in  their L/10 quarters of play, dating back to a 45-21 win over South Alabama in the 2016 Arizona Bowl.

Calhoun is 19-5 ATS L/24 when the total is between 42.5 and 49.

Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection

Vanderbilt enters this tilt as the top team in the nation in Scoring D and are No.2 in red zone D. there a top tier team that must not be disrespected as was the case last week when they defeated Snyders KState by a 14-7 count.  I know how strong Alabama is and their legendary status is sometimes hard to bet against, even getting this many points. With that said, this week I'm going against the main stream betting minds and talking heads and taking points with  a football program on the rise, in their most important game of the season. the Commodores dating back to last season have won 5 straight at home, and have upset two top 25 opponents along the way, and are a bankroll expanding 9-2 ATS L/11 as 15 point or more dogs. note: Nick Saban has covered on 2 of his L/7 as fav of 15 points or more between undefeated teams.

Despite of losing 14 straight in this series the  Commodores are 10-4 ATS in those games including 5-2 ATS L/7 as hosts.

CFB Road favorites like Alabama - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 11-37 ATS for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors over the L/25 seasons.

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like Vandy - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season 39-10 ATS L/49 for a 80% conversion rate for bettors over the L/25 years .

Play on Vanderbilt 1 unit reg selection

Toledo is one of the best teams in the MAC, and deserve respect. But Miami is a national championship contender in my opinion, and also deserve a great deal of respect. After watching Toledo get torched by Tulsa last week for 51 points and 548 total yards , I feel Miami's offense will be ready to chew Rockets  up this week. But unfortunately for Toledo, they won't be able to reciprocate with their own offensive fireworks vs a very strong Hurricane D ,like they did vs Tulsa 's stand and  watch secondary and D last week. Toledo's coach agrees with my assessments , as here is a quote from Jason Candle who is concerned about Miami's speed.
Quote: "I see a team that's built on players from South Florida," he said. "Lot of speed. They play fast on defense. They're running to the football and getting to you with bad intentions when they do get to the ball.
"And on offense there's a multitude of guys that can score from anywhere. They've got a tremendous back in Mark Walton and some good receivers on the perimeter that can score it.
"I think the quarterback is going to continually get better as the year goes on." END quote:

MIAMI is 6-0 ATS L/6 off a home win by 17 points or more.MIAMI is 7-0 ATS L/7 after scoring 37 points or more last game . MIAMI is 15-4 ATS L/19 after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game.

Play on Miami FL to cover 1 unit unit reg selection

North Carolina after losses to California and Louisville in their first two home games, will now be ready to get into the win column vs a inconsistent looking Duke football program, that had problems dealing with a downtrodden Baylor team last week. Here on the road in their ACC opener things promise to be a lot more difficult for Duke, and I won't be surprised if they lose straight up as favs. It must be noted that North Carolina has scored and increased their offensive output in each game so far this season, 30, 35, 53 points respectively and are now in a offensive groove and ready to compete. 
 

HC Fedora is 7-0 SU/ATS following a victory where his team has a below .500 record. ( The tar Heels smashed Old Dominion last week by a 53-23 count.  
 

N CAROLINA is 23-10 ATS  L/33 vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game. 
 

CFB team (N CAROLINA) - terrible defensive team (440 YPG or more ) against an excellent defensive team (280 YPG or less), after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-7 ATS L/25 years for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 
 

Play on North Carolina to cover  1 unit reg selection

woUtah in my opinion is turning into a PAC12 championship contender, thanks to being able to generate more of a downfield passing game along with their already very viable run attack and what is becoming a defense that ranks among the nations toughest and most physical. I know Arizona can put points up in bunches, but their D despite of showing some improvements , still remains susceptible to allowing a ton of yards and a now in trouble vs a multi- dimensional attack like Utah owns.

Arizona ripped N.Arizona and lowly UTEP in their tow big wins, but against a decent team , Houston they lost by 19-16 count and were slowed on the ground. With that said, I'm betting Utah's vicious D, will be the difference maker here today and their ability to score from many angles makes them the right side tonight vs their hosts Arizona.

Arizona HC Rodriguez is 0-6 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game like Utah and were outscored by an average of 16.7 ppg. .Rodriguez is 1-15 ATS L/26 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games with average margin loss coming by 13.7 ppg. \Utah HC Whittingham is 10-2 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games.UTAH is also 22-9 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) winning by a average of a TD a game.

Play on the Utah Utes to cover 1 unit reg selection

Rocky Long has really put together a excellent football program at San Diego State, and really deserves a lot more respect than his team is getting from the lines-makers tonight. Meanwhile, Stanford despite of being a fine team, are in a huge letdown situation after being knocked out against USC last week and will find it difficult to get up off the proverbial matt(turf) here this week. San Diego State is a tough dog at home and have failed to cover only once their L/7 as hosts of 5 point dogs or more. Both these teams pound the ball on the ground consistently and both have stoppers on defense. I'm betting this is a grinding affair that will see getting  points being golden. Note: San Diego State limited Arizona State to 44 rushing yards and 1.4 yards per attempt.

The Aztecs have won 20 of their last 23 home games.

SAN DIEGO ST is 11-3 ATS  L/14 after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins .

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points Stanford - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season are 14-40 ATS L/25 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Diego State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Mississippi in no way shape or form should be favs here, even against a rebuilding California program. Travelling from East to West for any North American team is difficult proposition especially for a side, like Ole Miss that has looked asleep at the proverbial wheel at times this season despite of their perfect record and may still be reeling with the shock of losing their coach because of sex scandal.

Overall the Rebs are 7-23 ATS L/30 road favs including 0-7 ATS L7 off 2 consecutive wins.

With the Bears new defensive schemes, and coaching philosophies , I'm betting scoring on them they may not be as easy as was the case in the recent past.

Take the points here with the California Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection

Clemson had to face a very tough Auburn offense last week  winning by a 14-6 count, and now this week against a porous Louisville D, this will seem like a walk in the park. I have come to the conclusion that the Cards defense is of the Swiss cheese variety after watching a rebuilding North Carolina offense slice and dice them last week for 35 points on 401 yds and Purdue put 28 points on them the week before . I know a lot is being made of Heisman Trophy front runner LaMar Jackson of the Cardinal, who helped his team stay unbeaten by buoying the offense with 47 points in that above mentioned game, but this top tier college QB will really have his work cut out for him against an elite defense that has allowed a total of 9 pts in two game and I'm betting will come down to earth in this spot. Remember , folks, as great as Jackson is , he cannot play D, and that will be his teams downfall this week.

Play on Clemson to cover

The Commodores enter this game vs Kstate averaging 384 yards of total offense while giving up an average of 159 yards per game. They're averaging 122 yards per tilt on the ground and 261.5 through the air. Most important, the Commodores have not had a turnover.Quarterback Kyle Shurmur has completed 76.1 percent of his passes for 249 yards per game and seven touchdowns. This young QB is super intelligent , and plays within his limitations, making him a dangerous foe. Meanwhile, on the flipside  I know  KState's Coach (Bill) Snyder is one of the best in the business, but he's not perfect, especially on the road losing 3 of his L/13 non conference road games and 5 of his L/20 Sept road games. With my own projections estimating this game to be decided by a FG or a late score taking points here makes for a very viable wager.

VANDERBILT is 13-2 ATS  L/15 off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points KState - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season are 14-40 ATS dating 25 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors. Also CFB  home team Vanderbilt  - after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 44-14 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. CFB  home team like Vanderbilt  - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 29-7 ATS for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Vanderbilt to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tulsa enters the Glass Bowl against one of the best teams in the MAC, Toledo, but won't be easily intimidated behind  a potent offense that put 66 points on the board last week.  It must also be noted that its never easy for a north American sports team to travel east to west over multiple time zones like Toledo did last week in a trip to Nevada. Now going against a fast and explosive Tulsa team, I'm betting the sledding will not be easy , as the Rockets will be a little Jet lagged and tired in this spot.

Golden Hurricane are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tulsa  - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 27-5 ATS going back 10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB. road team like Tulsa - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-8 ATS L/38 for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulsa to cover 1 unit reg selection

Middle Tennessee State took out the Syracuse Orange last week 30-23 on the road,  and in the previous game , played a very good SEC team Vanderbiilt tough losing by a 28 -6 count. Now against a Minnesota side getting to many accolades after smashing a  Oregon State team with series issues, I'm betting they revert back to the norm and for Middle Tennessee State to  make a game of this and  even possible pull off a SU upset. In the Gophers previous game to last weeks road win, they barely squeezed by the Buffalo Bisons of the MAC at home by a 17-7 count as 21.5 favs, and things won't come much easier here. With that said, I'll recommend we take anything that resembles +8.5 to+10 .

MIDDLE TENN ST is 7-0 ATS  L/7 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse over.

Play on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders to cover 1 unit reg selection

Old Dominion may not be a big name school form a power 5 conference, but they are a viable underdog here against a rebuilding North Carolina program, that continues to exhibit very poor defensive abilities over the last few seasons.  Last season Old Dominion was 7-0 SU at home and must not be underestimated in what is their biggest game of the season . With the Tar Heels QB expected to be less than 100% this week with a ankle injury, I'm betting that  N.Carolina at 0-2 and losing the stats war by an average 167 ypg  has issues moving the ball with consistency , against a staunch Monarchs D , while their own D, will have problems stopping anything that can move.

N CAROLINA is 10-25 ATS L/35  after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game which happened against Louisville last week.

Play on Old Dominion to cover 1 unit reg selection

TCU proved to me as long as they stay healthy they are going to be a juggernaut this season. Last week they owned Arkansas and were the more physical of both teams, winning a 28-7 decision . Now this week against SMU I'm betting we see an even more explosive effort vs a lower tier side that does not matchup well against them at all in almost aspects of the game.

TCU is 7-0 ATS   as a home favorite of 17.5 to 21 points since 1992 winning by an average of 31.1 ppg.

Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like TCU - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. are 40-13 L/53 for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. home team like TCU - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 29-7 ATS for a 81% conversion rate for bettors over the L/25 years.

Play on TCU to cover 1 unit reg selection