Marshall came up with a huge upset last week vs Notre Dame and will now be in a huge emotional letdown situation vs a Bowling Green side that deserves some respect getting points as the 6th most experienced team in the country. After some heavy celebrating by the Thundering Herd and their fan base Im betting on their battery being a little depleted here, making them vulnerable to being upset . 

Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings in this series at home. 

CFB team (BOWLING GREEN) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season are 71-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Bowling Green to cover 

Kansas has shown offensive explosiveness and cohesion in their first two games this season scoring 56 and 55 points respectively  both resulting in victories. Meanwhile, Houston has shown some defensive deficiencies allowing 35 and 33 points in their first two games and very much look vulnerable as DD chalk. 

Kansas is 3-0 SU  since 1992 vs Houston! 

Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS) - pathetic team from last season - outscored by opponents by 17 or more points/game are 36-12 ATS L/30 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored are 32-10 ATS L/30 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas to cover 

Auburns much maligned HC Harisan is much better than many might think, especially early on in campaigns Harsin who is devout chartist is 27-7 in his first four games of the season and Im betting he will be well prepared again. 

Penn State has failed to cover 3 of their L/4 as a non conference road fav of 4 points or less.Franklin is 11-21 ATS  when the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of PENN ST. Penn State is just 2-7 ATS vs the SEC. 

Auburn is 10-2 ATS as home dogs against undefeated opposition like Penn State. 

CFB team (AUBURN) - in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games, team that had a losing record last season are 34-11 ATS L/30 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB team (PENN ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 27-66 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Auburn to cover 

BYU has victories  against USF and Baylor.  This is a never say die group the Mormons bring on to the field and are not the type of squad that would have partied heavily last week after defeating Baylor in OT. Im betting they wont let that big win make them emotionally vulnerable because their maturity levels are above average as is their talent levels. 

BYU is 6-2 ATS L/8 as road dogs of 8 point or less. Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.Cougars are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on fieldturf.

Ducks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.Ducks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.Ducks are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS win.Ducks are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.Ducks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BYU) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 425 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 30-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on BYU

Rutgers destroyed Temple last season by a 61-14 count l, and another projected explosive offensive output Im betting is on todays agenda, giving us an edge on a over investment cashing. Rutgers has already put 66 points on the board this season. 

Over is 4-1 in Owls last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 4-1 in Owls last 5 home games.

CFB Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (RUTGERS) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games are 25-5 OVER L/30 seasons with a combined average of 54.7 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (TEMPLE) - team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less) playing a team that had a losing record are 50-17 OVER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate with a combined average of 53.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER 

Indiana found a way past Illinois last week, but Im not a big believer in this program at the present moment and really like Western Kentucky's passing game which could make like difficult for the Hoosiers secondary that has shown some glaring weaknesses.

 Hilltoppers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.Hilltoppers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf. Hilltoppers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

W KENTUCKY is 13-2 ATS L/15 tilts  as a road underdog of 7 points or less . W KENTUCKY is 30-12 ATS L/32 after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins 

INDIANA is 8-20 ATS L/28  in home games off a home win . INDIANA is 2-11 ATS  when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

Hoosiers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.Hoosiers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.Hoosiers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 

Louisville QB Malik Cunningham  has owned  FSU’s defense the last two seasons and Im betting he helps his team land some big offensive punches against what is still not a complete FSU D that  struggled to contain the QB vs LSU .Florida State defense ranks outside the top 90 in Passing Success Rate and Passing PPA Allowed.

. On the flipside  FSU’s offense matches up really well against Louisville’s weak rush defense and does more than enough damage here with the option being key for big downfield offensive gains behind improved QB play and 3 dimensional run game. 

Louisville HC  Satterfield and former QB  is 15-3 OVER  off 2 or more consecutive unders in all games he has coached in his career with a combined average of 60 ppg going on the board. 

Over is 11-1 in Cardinals last 12 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Louisville.

Play on the OVER 

We. know how explosive Mississippi State can be with an air raid offense that never quits. But Arizona is use to explosive passing attacks and are currently well suited to deal with it. Meanwhile, I expect the Wildcats to really look to slow this game down via the running game, which Im betting makes for a lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers current offering suggests. 

Under is 16-6 in Bulldogs last 22 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 21-8 in Bulldogs last 29 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. MISSISSIPPI ST is 24-10  l/34 UNDER  after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored with a combined average of 49.1 ppg scored. Last week they won 49-23 ,but the coaching staff were emphatic about shoring up the D this week. 

Under is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 home games. 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 MISS STATE /ARIZONA) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 30-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 52.9 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

The Baylor Bears had a great season last year winning the Big 12 championship with an upset vs Oklahoma State.  They also beat the Cougars last season by a 38-24 count,  But now BYU will be primed for payback behind a explosive team that is very under rated in my humble opinion. It must also be noted that BYU ranks No. 1 overall and the Bears at No. 126. in returning production. With the home side winning and covering the last three meetings including  a 6-1 ATS record  favoring the Mormons  in their last seven meetings with Big 12 opposition I feel confident in a winning effort by the home side today.Cougars are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play on BYU 

Virginia Tech is off a loss to lower tier Old Dominion last week by a 20-17 count and are proving my assessments of them correct at this juncture of the season. Vtech lost to Boston last season by a 17-3 count and look incapable of payback .  I know BC blew a lead vs Rutgers last week and lost 22-21, but that will make them all the more hungrier this week in a matchup that favors them getting points. 

CFB team (BOSTON COLLEGE) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses are 33-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston College to cover 

These teams played a  regular season finale on Thanksgiving weekend last season with West Virginia  barley getting  by  Kansas  with a  34-28 victory  in Lawrence.  Kansas has 9 starters back on offense and 17 returning starters overall while West Virginia only has 4 on defense and 11 total coming back. The experience resides with Kansas and some key trends also support them as underdogs and possible out right winners. CFB Road underdogs  (KANSAS) - team with a below average  scoring defense last season - allowed 35 or more points/game, with 9 or more offensive starters returning have won 19 of their L/27 opportunities SU. Kanas has covered 6 of the L/9 meetings in this series and 3 of their L/4 @ West Virginia.Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Play on Kansas to cover 

UNLV quarterback Doug Brumfield went 21 of 25 for 356 yards and threw four first-half touchdowns in last weeks 55-21 win over Idaho State and Im betting he does some damage again, while the Rebels D, will take some punishment from a PAC 12 offense that matches up well agains them. Note: Bears Cal QB Jack Plummer went 23 for 35 for 268 yards with three touchdowns and Im betting on even more consistency here as they get the rust off . 

Over is 6-1 in Rebels last 7 games overall.

Over is 4-0 in Golden Bears last 4 games in September. Over is 38-18-1 in Golden Bears last 57 non-conference games.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (CALIFORNIA) - team that had a losing record last season, with just 9 or fewer total starters returning are 39-98 OVER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 54.2 ppg. 

CFBeams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (UNLV) - team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less) playing a team that had a losing record are 49-17 OVER L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 53.2 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Alabama's goes into Austin  to take on the Texas Longhorns . Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian was Saban's offensive coordinator for two seasons, so both coaches are not strangers and know their opponent well.   

New Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, who transferred from Ohio State, passed for 225 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in his first start and is capable of doing some damage here again this week against a top tier defense that is still human in nature. 

Home Field is a big advantage for the Longhorns as a 3 TD underdog. 

From a historical standpoint Texas is 7-1-1 all-time against Alabama with the loss coming in the BCS Championship Game at the end of the 2009 season.

Sarkisian is 16-5 ATS L/21 in home games in September games in all games he has coached since 1992. Sarkisian is 13-4 ATS  in home games in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Texas to cover 

Huge emotional  letdown scenario on tap here this week vs Georgia State for the North Carolina Tar Heels as they come off a extremely hard fought victory  against App St in OT by a 65-63 score. Biggest problem for the Tar Heels is a D, that has now surrendered 85 points in two games and once again looks vulnerable here, 

N CAROLINA is 1-9 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Brown is 2-10 ATS in road games off 1 or more straight overs as the coach of N CAROLINA.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA ST) - team that had a winning record last season 103-54 L/30 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA ST) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 83-35 ATS L/30 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia State to cover 

Boise State was beaten up on by Oregon state in their first game of the season, and will primed for a redemption minded bounce back effort against a less than strong New Mexico side that they  matchup very well against. In the two most recent meetings in this series the Broncos bashed the Lobos by scores of 37-0 and 42-9, and my projections estimate a rinse and repeat situation is on board for this Friday night. Yes, I know the Lobos clobbered a ugly looking Maine team at home in their opener by a 41-0 count, but the side their facing today is a multiple times better than what they saw last week. Note: New Mexico is just 1-12 ATS when off a 7 or more point win.Lobos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Broncos are 7-1 ATS when off an away defeat. Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.

Play on the Boise State Broncos to cover 

The Brian Kelly era at LSU Im betting will be a difficult one for him  in this ‘neutral field’  opening event at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans vs a Florida State program that looks ready to right the ship . Off course the media is all over LSU and how potent they will be this season . However hold your horses folks as  FSU head coach Mike Norvell  showed momentum late last season  as  the Seminoles won five of their last  eight games,. It was to little to late, but now Im betting on bigger and better things for FSU.  With  QB Jordan Travis, the Louisville transfer, registering a 148.9 Passer rating last season, and back to back  1,000 yards rushing campaigns   this   more experienced FSU crew has an anchor. Note: LSU HC  Kelly is 0-3 ATS in season openers the last three years . Meanwhile, : Norvell is   7-0 ATS the last seven tilts vs non conference opposition. 

Florida State 5-1 ATS L/6 a non conference favs  of 8 points or less. 

Play on Florida State to cover 

North Texas is off a win in their opening game of the season vs UTEP and once again deserve respect vs a SMU team playing without HC Sonny Dykes who went over to coach TCU. This N.Texas  team this season returns eight starters on offense, while featuring  and a under rated D that improved vastly last season compared to the previous season .  The Mean Green are ranked No. 21 overall in Returning Production and deserve respect getting this many points. With this being a revenge situation for N.Texas after suffering losses in this series in three straight seasons Im betting on a motivated effort from the home dog.

SMU is 1-8 ATS in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons. Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

NORTH TEXAS is 10-2 ATS  in home games off a double digit road win since 1992.NORTH TEXAS is 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.Littrell is 6-0 ATS in home games off a road win against a conference rival as the coach of NORTH TEXAS. Mean Green are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.

Mean Green are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

North Texas to cover 

 New Head coach Billy Napier is a top tier coach and Im betting he actually gets the most out of the rebuild with the Gators and  talent he has on the field this season thanks to a strong coaching staff he brought over from Louisiana  . I know he will face PAC 12 Champs Utah, but according to early season power rankings this SEC home side will be very competitive and the linesmakers agree with me. 

Note: Utah in  one-score tilts the L/5 seasons, are just  1-6 SU on the road and have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 as  non-conference favorites the last four campaigns. Meanwhile,  the Gators are  3-0 ATS run as a home pup,  and have covered their L/3 gridiron battles vs Pac-12 sides .  Add to that  Billy Napier is 7-1 SU/ATS as a dog of 5 or less points and you have what I am recommending as a solid take option getting points. 

Play on Florida to cover 

Miss HC Lane  Kiffin might take a few games to get rolling as he has lost some key production from last year, so a blowout may not come as easily as this line suggests. Here today against a 18 returning  starter the  Bulldogs may find themselves in a closer tilt than anticipated. Note: Kiffin has failed to cover 7 of his L/10 as a non conference chalk of 20 or more points. 

’17 returning starter ’pups in their season openers ,  are  113-84-3 ATS L/.198 opportunities . 

Play on Troy to cover 

 The UCLA Bruins had a decent campaign last season, but Im betting they are over rated despite of some top tier offensive talent returning .According to my projections the Bruins are  getting just a bit to much respect here today against MAC opponents Bowling Green.. The Falcons may not inspire bettors but with the amount of experience they have thanks to playing so many under class-man last season they become dangerous underdogs. Bowling Green coming into this season  as the countries 6th ranked team in Returning Production experience, and  also rank  No. 3 in returning offensive production. . Note:  UCLAs HC Chip Kelly  is a perennial slow starter losing 5 of his first 8 openers SU  and for me is fade material against a under rated opponent. 

Bruins are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games.

Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Play on the Bowling Green Falcons to cover 

 North Carolina did not look good in their opener vs a lower tier side and were up  just 21-14 with 5 seconds remaining in the first half despite of Florida A&M having 25 ineligible players sidelined. They did win 56-24 but I was very unimpressed.   North Carolina barely made it to a Bowl game last season, and  looked horrendous  in a  38- 21 defeat  as 13-point favs vs  South Carolina  With key personnel now gone   Mack Brown just does not look like he has a solid base for a team to suddenly begin to put wins on the board, especially here on the road against a Appalachian State program that has garnered a 11-1 SU at home record the last 3 seasons and a eye popping  32-3 SU record at home in their L/35 attempts and 21-3 ITS at home the last 4 seasons.  

Brown is 1-10 ATS  in road games off 1 or more straight overs as the coach of N CAROLINA.Brown is 9-26 ATS  after a playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached since 1992. 

Play on App state to cover 

TCU opens without  head coach Gary Patterson for the first time in 20 seasons. Hes gone and and a new era begins at TCU.   Sonny Dykes, an so called offensive guru with a lack of respect for putting together decent defenses takes over ( At SMU he allowed an average of 430 YPG in four seasons . Thats not a good look for a Horned Frogs side that  ranked 122nd against the run  via 222 RYPG. Dykes is favored here by to many points despite of Colorados recent lack of success. Note: Dykes  has failed to cover 17 of his L/25 as a road favorite , and  3-16 ATS the L/19 trips to the gridiron. Playing in the High altitudes is not an easy proposition for visiting sides, and Im betting the Buffs who are acclimated to the thin air make life difficult for TCU .

TCU is 2-9 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Colorado to cover 

VTechs new HC  Pry  and Old Dominions HC  Ricky Rahne,  served under James Franklin at both Vanderbilt and Penn State, where they were dueling coordinators. Needless to say they know each other well and competitiveness should be on this agenda. 

Its also interesting to note that the last time Old Dominion played  hosts to  a Power 5 program was back in 2018 . That game saw the Monarchs take out the  Hokies by  49-35 count  as 29-point home underdogs.

With 17 starters back, including 10 on offense, plus an array of transfers from Power 5 schools Old Dominion Im betting will be more competitive than the pundits might think vs a Virginia Tech squad that was just 6-7 last season and still trying to gauge how to win regularly. 

NCAAF Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OLD DOMINION) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 58% or better, in non-conference games are 83-42 ATS L/30 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Old Dominion to cover 

HC Browns needs to get his team off on the proverbial right foot here tonight as West Virginia starts this season on the road vs  a Pittsburgh side that finds itself starting this campaign without NFL draftee QB Kenny Pickett  and top tier WR Jordan Addison who took the transfer portal option and went out to USC.

Im betting QB Daniels who previously was under center at USC and Georgia  will have an advantage here today and get us the cover and possible outright victory. 

West Virginia is  9-3 SU/ATS  and including 5-1 SUATS as underdogs. Meanwhile, Pitt has recorded a 1-6 SU L/7  record against Big 12 opponents. 

Mountaineers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in September.Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on West Virginia to cover 

Charlotte brings back some experience from last season -ranking 19th in the nation in returning experience. Considering Charlotte has revenge on board for a humiliating loss last year to the Owls you can bet this group will primed for payback . With that said Im betting on QB Chris Reynolds and his experienced offensive group to stay in this game against FAU and possibly win the tilt outright. 

FLA ATLANTIC is 3-13 ATS L/16 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points . FLA ATLANTIC is 7-18 ATS L/25 as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 

NCAAF Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHARLOTTE) - terrible defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 41-15 ATS L/30 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

Wyoming  returns just 4 starers on each side of the ball and is expected to have a sub par season in the Mountain West Conference. Note: Wyoming ranks 129 out of 131 teams in terms of returning production. Meanwhile, Illinois is up trending- behind HC Bret Bielema who has 13 starters back in Champaign. I know the Illini did not have a strong season last year, but Im betting they start this season off with a big bang effort behind new OC Barry Lunney Jr. who comes over with his successes from UTSA. 

 Bielema is 13-0 SU in home openers in his college head-coaching career.  Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.

Fighting Illini are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Play on Illinois to cover 

Game to played on a neutral Field in Dublin, Ireland . 

Nebraska's Scott Frost returns  12 starters   from a 3-9 SU  team from last season and are being vastly over rated against a Northwestern side that had a atrocious season in 2021. Meanwhile, the Wildcats bring back 14 starters, and will be primed and very motivated  to stay competitive after last seasons nasty 56-7 beatdown at the hands of the Corn huskers. 

Cornhuskers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on Northwestern to cover 

CFP Championship Game - Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

I know it's never an easy decision to bet against Alabama , but I feel strongly this is Georgias time. The Bulldogs were head and shoulders the best team in College Football this season . Yes, they did lose to Saban and company allowing 30.4 ppg more than theyre season average But now with that loss out of the way Im betting Georgia will feel the need to be more aggressive with Alabama rather than show them to much respect , which was part of the reason they lost last time they played. Note: GEORGIA is 20-8 ATSL/28 in road games revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite. 

GEORGIA is 52-33 ATS L/85 in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season.

Saban is 7-19 ATS L/26 vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game as the coach of ALABAMA.

CFB team (GEORGIA) - good rushing team (190-230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) after 7+ games, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 51-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia to cover 

 North Dakota State has a 47-6 record in true road games since 2011, and that record is 57-6 including 10 neutral site games over the same span. NDSU has a 40-3 record in the FCS playoffs. North Dakota State has won a record eight FCS national championships and is making a record ninth appearance in the title game. The Bison are 13-2 overall in playoff title games with the only losses coming in the Division II championships in 1981 to Texas State (42-13) and 1984 to Troy (18-17). Needless to say this storied FCS program knows how to win. 

 Key today vs Montana State: North Dakota State has the No. 3 rushing offense in FCS averaging 273.6 yards per game. NDSU has seven backs averaging better than 5.0 yards per carry, and the team's 6.13 yards per carry is fifth best in school history and nothing will change here today in what Im betting will be a over powering  performance vs a strong MSU D that is vulnerable to big gain on the ground vs this type of opposition . 

 North Dakota State crushed Montana State in the 2018 and 2019 playoffs : The Bison  took a 38-3 halftime lead in the 2018 second round and cruised, 52-10, then smashed them again  to a 29-7 halftime lead in the 2019 semis before rolling 42-14.  This might be a better version of Montana state but they still are in my opinion DD dogs despite of the line. 

Montana State averaged just 19 points per game over its final five regular-season contests, but in the play offs came alive under a backup QB Mellott, but after a 3 week lay off cohesiveness will be a problem vs this type of D. 

North Dakota State to cover 

Texas Bowl - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

 LSU is decimated by injuries, especially on defense and the secondary and Im betting the Cats open up a little more than their MO usually dictates and this will relate to a faster pace than usual and more scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, LSU despite of their offensive problems down the stretch are still a SEC side with explosive output capabilities behind  4 star recruits   who would love to show case their talents for next seasons opportunity to start . With that said, Im betting on a higher scoring affair than many of the pundits estimate. 

Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 vs. Big 12.Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 neutral site games.Over is 9-3-1 in Tigers last 13 non-conference games.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (KANSAS ST) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in January games are 31-6 L/29 seasons for a 84% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

Sugar Bowl - Ceasars Superdome - New Orleans, LA

 Baylor's  is a top tier two way side, controlling the ball for 31:37 per game and that will be the difference maker here today vs Ole Miss. 

BAYLOR is 9-0 ATS  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.BAYLOR is 8-1 ATS  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more  yards/game over the last 3 seasons.BAYLOR is 10-1 ATS  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.BAYLOR is 9-1 ATS  in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

SEC teams are 3-6 ATS in the last nine Sugar Bowls.

Play on Baylor to cover 

Rose Bowl - Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA

Ohio State has something to prove here after being defeated by Michigan to end their season. Im betting we see them at their best here vs a good but not quite ready for prime time Utah Utes side. I know some key players will be out for Ohio State as they prepare for the NFL draft but their replacements are top tier recruits and will be out to show off their abilities. 

OHIO ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more points. (Lost to Michigan 42-27 to end their season)

OHIO ST is 29-13 ATS  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more  rushing yards/carry.

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (OHIO ST) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games, with an inexperienced QB as starter 32-2 L/29 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at  +16.6  . 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH) - excellent offensive team (6.2  or more YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) are 48-81 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63%  go against conversion rate. 

Ohio State to cover 

 Citrus Bowl - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

The Hawkeyes   and Wildcats  use their ground attacks as their no1 option to move the chains and both  play strong defense . Both are patient and can force mistakes. Both play similar styles but Im betting the Wildcats are the superior side. 

KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS  after playing a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

 Bowl teams that scored 3 or less points in their last game are 1-11 ATS L/12 opportunities. (Iowa lost 42-3 to Michigan to end their season)

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (IOWA) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 9-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (KENTUCKY) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games, with an inexperienced QB as starter 32-2 L/29 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors  with the average ppg diff clicking in at +16.6 ppg which qualifies on this offered ATS line. 

Play on Kentucky to cover 

Fiesta Bowl - State Farm Stadium - Glendale, AZ

The Cowboys were in my humble opinion the most under rated team in the nation this season, behind a top tier D, and explosive offense . The Cowboys were also  5-0 SU/ATS on the road this season and must be respected here away from home vs a Notre Dame side that will be without their top  RB Kyren Williams and their best defensive player DB Kyle Hamilton . 

Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 bowl games are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games. Cowboys are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as an underdog. Cowboys are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.

NOTRE DAME is 14-33 ATS L/47 versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5 or less yards/play. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 ATS  after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

Fiesta Bowl - State Farm Stadium - Glendale, AZ

Both these sides have strong defenses, but the offenses are being under rated in a game that could easily be a back and forth affair. My own projections estimate a combined score of closer to 50 giving us value with an over wager. 

Over is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 games on grass.

 Gundy is 22-11 OVER  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of OKLAHOMA ST with a combined average of 69 ppg scored. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (OKLAHOMA ST) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in January games are 30-5 OVER L/29 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 56.5 ppg scored. 

CFB team against the total (NOTRE DAME) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), in non-conference games are 50-20 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

Early on this season, the Lions looked like Big 10 Contenders , but some close loses to top tier competition looked to take the wind out of them down the stretch. Im now betting we see Penn State  back in top form . I know Arkansas looked strong down the stretch but their defense remains vulnerable and could easily be their Achilles heel in this Bowl tilt. Razorbacks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. 

PENN ST is 21-9 ATS L/30  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less  yards per return . PENN ST is 7-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.  Franklin is 8-1 ATS   after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers as the coach of PENN ST.  .Nittany Lions are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (ARKANSAS) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 13-22 L/10 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Penn State to cover 

Georgia is the best team in the nation, and deserve to be 10 point favs according to my projections. I know Michigan has had a fine season, but this is a special SEC  group of Bulldogs and they deserve the ultimate respect. I know anything can happen in one game, and upsets are possible but 99 out 100 times this Georgia team comes out with a conclusive victory according to my projections. Miracles are beautiful things to behold, but Im betting today wont bring any Sister Lucia like enlightenment to the Orange Bowl.  Note: SEC Bowl favorites are 9-3 ATS L/12 versus the Big Ten. 

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA) - with a good rushing D - allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 61-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Georgia to cover 

Cotton Bowl Classic - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Oh boy here I go Im going to bet against Nick Saban's Alabama. Im not only feeling brave, but confident. I know old Nick has a reputation as virtually unbeatable, but this is a  big spread and  the advantage must go to an undefeated side that has proven itself consistently against top tier opposition covering  their L/7 vs above .900 opposition like Alabama. The Bearcats were also 7-0 ATS against above.500 foes this season. Bottom line: Cincinnatis D is very strong, even when considering this type of explosive offensive  opposition. Note: The Bearcats own the No. 1  Team Passing Efficiency Defense, and rank  No. 3  in the nation in Red Zone Defense. This Im betting keeps them competitive enough to get us the cover. 

CINCINNATI is 9-0 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5  or less yards per return over the last 2 seasons.CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS   after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.CINCINNATI is 10-1 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

Sun Bowl - Sun Bowl - El Paso, TX

Im a fan of Central Michigan head coach Jim McElwain, who  has a money making  12-5 SUATS   coming off a bye  including 7-1 ATS  run when coming off a victory. He has really put together a tough and explosive group together here with the Chips and deserves respect for his work and what is top tier preparation levels. They enter this game on a 4-0 SU/ATS run while averaging 41 points per game and Im betting will hang with their PAC 10 OPPONENTS . 

Pac-12’s  sides like Washington State are  1-23 ATS in bowl games against opposition  coming off a win . 

C MICHIGAN is 13-3 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons. WASHINGTON ST is 0-6 ATS  after a bye week over the last 3 seasons

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (C MICHIGAN) - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season are 39-20 ATS L/5 seasons for 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Central Michigan to cover

Gator Bowl - TIAA Bank Field - Jacksonville, FL

Wake forest is one of the most explosive offensive teams in the nation averaging 41.2 ppg while on defense in road games allowed an average of 38.7 ppg. Meanwhile, Rutgers despite of their overall numbers have shown some offensive flashes of brilliance scoring 38 points on Indiana a month ago and are capable of putting points on the board in this type of non conference game.

You cannot properly prepare for a team like Wake Forest on short notice especially from a defensive standpoint, which has me believing  that the Demon Deacons will bring down the hammer here in a big way, while Rutgers will have no choice but to open up  offensively against  a D that is pedestrian to say the least. WAKE FOREST is 6-0 OVER   after a bye week over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 86.1 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Badgers looked strong down the stretch winning 7 of their L/8 games and deserve respect here vs Arizona State tonight . I know ASU have been strong defensively, but the Badgers are from a conference with some hardcore top tier defenses, and  wont be phased . With that said,  I really feel the Badgers have an edge, on both sides of the ball. 

The Badgers have only failed to cover 1 of their L/7  postseason tilts . From a historical view:  Vegas Bowl  has seen the  favorites, cash 7 of the L/10 times. Wisconsin has won 7 of their L/8 Bowl games SU. 

Note: [RB] 12/09/2021 - Rachaad White is OUT Thursday vs Wisconsin ( Personal )

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WISCONSIN) - with a good rushing D - allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 61-30 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wisconsin to cover 

Peach Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

Pitt won’t have  their super star QB  Kenny Pickett  tonight as he opts out to to prepare for the NFL draft while Michigan State won’t have their prize RB Kenneth Walker III  in the lineup. But like I have said many times before RBs are easily replaced , while big time QBs are not easily replaced. Advantage Michigan State.

Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

Spartans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.

Big 10 have  owned the ACC in bowl  games, going  7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Michigan State to cover 

These two teams are explosive offensively and not so strong from a defensive standpoint. Oregon has averaged 31.4 ppg on offense this season while allowing 30.3 ppg on the road. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has averaged 38.4 ppg on offense while allowing a average of 33.2 ppg  on the road. With that said Im expecting a back and forth affair that should be highly entertaining and high scoring.  Im projecting both sides score above the 28 point level - Note: OKLAHOMA is 9-0 OVER   when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 77.8 ppg scored. OREGON is 9-1 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 69.7 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

Over is 5-1 in Sooners last 6 vs. Pac-12.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (OKLAHOMA OREGON) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (21-28 PPG) after 7 or more games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 32-6 OVER L/10 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Cheez-It Bowl - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

Iowa States main mode of moving the ball has been through their super star RB Breece Hall who is out as he opts to skip this bowl game as he prepares for the NFL draft. The Cyclones will replace their RB but wont have nearly the success rate needed to get into position for scores which  Im betting will mute their offensive output.  Meanwhile, Clemson has had problems scoring all season long, but have shown that their D is of the top tier variety. Considering the above mentioned facts and scenarios a lower scoring affair should be expected. 

CLEMSON is 10-0 UNDER  on a neutral field where the total is between 42.5 and 49 since 1992. .Under is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 non-conference games.Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. Big 12. Under is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 games in December. Under is 8-3 in Tigers last 11 Bowl games.

IOWA ST is 10-2 UNDER  in a bowl game since 1992. Campbell is 10-1 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of IOWA ST.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (IOWA ST) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 25-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB team against the total (IOWA ST) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 100+ YPG) against a good team (+50-+100 YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 35-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Air Force as we know are going to pound the the ball via the run   behind an  offense that averaged 341.4 YPG with their ground attack this season, and nothing will change today, vs a Louisville side that Im betting will have their hands full from the get go in this Bowl tilt. 

Note: Louisville ended their season on a down note getting pummeled 52-21 by Kentucky allowing 352 yards on the ground. LOUISVILLE is 0-7 ATS L/7 in road games off a home loss by 14 or more points. 

AIR FORCE is 7-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.

Note:Neutral field underdogs (AIR FORCE) - outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games are 31-8 L/29 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISVILLE) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after out gaining  opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 9--31 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Air Force to cover 

Birmingham Bowl - Protective Stadium - Birmingham, AL

Houston was explosive this season offensively , but here against a SEC defense Im betting their offense will be muted. Remember this is a Tigers side that held Alabama to just 24 points. On the flip-side, the Auburn offense since Bo Nix went down, has been inconsistent and will have some issues here vs a Houston D that is allowing just 18.7 ppg in 9 games played on turf this season. 

AUBURN is 7-0 UNDER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 45.9 ppg. AUBURN is 6-0 UNDER   when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 46.1 ppg scored. 

Harsin is 18-2 UNDER (vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 45.4 ppg scored.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (HOUSTON) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 45-19 UNDER L/29 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

Auburn gave a top tier Alabama team a decent battle losing by a 24-22 count to finish their season, and must be respected here against a Houston team that is talented but not of the same talent level as their SEC opponent . It will be the superior D, of the tigers that Im betting will be the difference maker. 

HOUSTON is 1-11 ATS L/12  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return .  

Houston from a historical level is just  0-4 SUATS in the last four bowl appearances,. Also the AAC is a ugly 0-13 ATS as bowl pup  of 7 or less points. 

Holgorsen is 6-21 ATS after a bye week in all games he has coached since 1992.Holgorsen is 2-10 ATS  n December games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Auburn to cover 

Camellia Bowl - Cramton Bowl - Montgomery, AL

Senior quarterback Drew Plitt Im betting will be the key for Ball State Cardinal on Christmas Day.  He enters this game with a 124.9 quarterback rating while completing 60.5 % of his passes for 2,248 yards with 17 touchdowns . I know what perceptions are, but according to my cross conference power rankings Ball State matches up well vs Georgia State. 

BALL ST is 13-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. BALL ST is 7-0 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (BALL ST) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in December games are 19-7 SU L/29 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BALL ST) - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season are 38-19 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ball State to cover 

Gasparilla Bowl - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL

Florida melted in the Heat of Gainesville this fall. HC Mullen  and the core of his assistants is gone, and were they're betting backers worst nightmare going 0-6 ATS down the stretch. On the flip-side HC Malzahn is experienced going against  SEC sides, like Florida when he was with Auburn, so he wont feel overwhelmed by this sub standard group of Gators. Note: Malzahn 13-2 SU L/15 vs above  .500 or less SEC opposition , including 7-1 SUATS on the road and get my support here getting points. 

FLORIDA is 1-8 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCF) - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season are 38-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play on UCF to cover 

This is like a defacto home game for North Texas as Denton is just down the highway  from the Frisco Bowl( maybe in hr in traffic)  With that said, the Mean Green enter this game with a lot of momentum as they finished their season on 6-0 SU/ATS run and must be respected here as what must be looked at as home  underdogs. 

RedHawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.RedHawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. CUSA.RedHawks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.

NORTH TEXAS is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.NORTH TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse this season.NORTH TEXAS is 7-0 ATS  after playing a conference game this season.

Play on North Texas to cover 

Armed Forces Bowl - Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

 The much maligned D of the Tigers actually matches up well against Army's smallish offensive line ( no one over 290 pounds). I know Missouri had problems slowing the run this season, but they do matchup well here according to power rankings. Meanwhile, Army's defensive line is a big strong group, but they are substantially slower than the Tigers offense, and Im betting they have problems slowing this superior athletic SEC group. I know the popular pick in Bowl season are military colleges behind their triple option, but this is just to big spread according to my projections making getting points here golden.Black Knights are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (ARMY) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 10-20  L/10 seasons for a go against  67% conversion rate. 

Play on Missouri to cover 

San Diego State has a top tier defensive unit  , allowing just 319.5 YPG, ranked 14th in the country and that will be the difference maker here in this Bowl Game against CUSA opponent UTSA. Conference USA sides went 0-7 SU Last season, and Im betting the negative run continues today.

SAN DIEGO ST is 18-7 ATS  in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTSA) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 19-45 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Kent State behind  senior quarterback Dustin Crum is a dangerous  two-way threat ,  as he finished second in the MAC with an average of 273.5 yards per game total offense. He passed for 2,922 yards and 16 touchdowns   and rushed for 633 yards and 11 more TDS. Add to that Running back   Marquez Cooper who was  fifth in the league with 1,080 yards rushing and had 11 touchdowns which contributes to an explosive  offense that is averaging  243 yards rushing and 237 yards passing per game. I know Wyoming has a strong D, but Kent State is a shock and awe type side, that will be hard to keep up with. Cowboys are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. it must be noted that the Cowboys lost 38-14 to what was thought to be an inferior Hawaii team to end the season, and their consistency this year was non existent losing to sides like New Mexico  and don't inspire me with their game preparation. Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.

WYOMING is 6-17 ATS L/23 in road games after a loss by 21 or more points . 

Lewis is 12-4 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of KENT ST.

Play on Kent State to cover 

Utah State has a had a very successful season and are off pounding a strong San Diego State  side to win the Mountain West title and they must not be underestimated here vs Oregon State. Despite of talent divergence between the PAC 12 and Mountain West from a general perspective, the Aggies have shown themselves an above average group, and Im betting will be competitive today behind a explosive offense. Note: Oregon state has been below average on  D this season and have almost no pass rush, which puts them at a disadvantage against this type of offensive unit. 

Pac-12 bowl teams coming off a victory like Oregon State are just  1-21 ATS L/6 seasons. 

Play on Utah State to cover 

Central Michigan blasted E.Michigan in their last game of the season by a 31-10 count. The team looked lethargic, and HC Creighton was not happy with the performance. Im betting they bounce back here in their Bowl appearance vs a public fav. (Liberty)  Note: Eastern Michigan HC Creighton has covered 14 straight times in his career as a road underdog when coming off a loss. E MICHIGAN is 20-7 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss by 21 points . Creighton is also 3-0 ATS L/3 Bowl appearances with W.Mich. 

E MICHIGAN is 14-2 ATS L/16 in road games vs. good passing teams like Liberty averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 

Liberty finished their season failing to cover 3 straight and are fade material here for me today vs under rated and disrespected MAC side.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

According to my power rankings UAB is highly under rated under HC  Bill Clark  who has built the Blazers into a strong cohesive unit.  UAB has looked tough as nails against top tier sides with a .800 or better record  cashing  7 of 9 opportunities  with 5 of those coming in the underdog role.  Considering how strong this Blazers D is allowing just 18.7 ppg on the road this season  Im betting BYU will not easily win this game if at all. 

UAB is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. this season. BYU is 0-6 ATS  in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UAB) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 61-23 ATS L/29 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UAB to cover 

 
UAB owned the best defense in Conference USA and allowed an average of just 18.7 ppg on the road. Mean while the UAB offense was inconsistent and does better with their flow with the run game, which Im betting they will implement and chew up alot of clock time. This for me has me leaning towards a combined score that fails to eclipse this offered Total. 

BYU is 7-0 UNDER as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less with a combined average of 43.7 ppg scored. Sitake is 9-2 UNDER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) as the coach of BYU with a combined average of 48.9 ppg scored. 

Clark is 20-6 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56 as the coach of UAB with a combined average of 47.8 ppg scored. UAB is 7-0 UNDER after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UAB/BYU ) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (8.3 or more  PYA) after 7+ games are 24-2 UNDER L/29 seasons for a 91% conversion rate.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UAB) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (8.3 or more  PYA) after 7+ games are 34-8 UNDER L/29 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Bahamas Bowl - Thomas Robinson Stadium - Nassau

Toledo is being over rated here, under  HC Candle the Rockets are just 0-3/SU/ATS in Bowl Games and this season going against sides with a .500 record or better failed to cover 4 of 5 times. I know Midd Tennessee State is without their starting QB for this tilt, but are still built to hang with a side like the Rockets when factoring in a  complete depth perspective on both sides of the ball. 

TOLEDO is 9-22 ATS  in road games after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins.TOLEDO is 23-45 ATS L/68  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better. 

Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover 

We are expected to have cloudy skies a few showers and some overall less than favorable weather with temps around 50 degrees F. We know these teams use the triple option as their go to means for the moving the ball and nothing will change today. With that said, Im expecting a ground war, here between these military schools, with the points looking to be golden in what Im betting will be very close affair. I know Navy's record is not a feature that makes bettors feel comfortable , but remember the Middies made play off side Cincinnati work hard for a 27-20 win last month and must not be disrespected in what this team will be treating as their biggest game of the season.

ARMY is 19-41 ATS  after a bye week since 1992

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NAVY) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 51-20 ATS L/29 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Navy Midshipman to cover 

The PAC 12 is not getting alot of respect this year from the pundits , and maybe they dont deserve it. Despite of the talent levels, most teams maybe other than Utah dont stand out and have shown a great deal of inconsistency. Today we have two PAC 12  Futility Poster stories, going head to head as California hosts USC. In past meetings the Trojans have had the edge from a historical standpoint, winning 20 of 26 games all as chalk. Note: HC Justin Wilcox is a  ATM machine for the his backers as an  underdog  as is evident by his  21-9 ATS record  getting points and Im backing him  again. Also betting on some of the players that are supposed to return next year dial up their energy as Im sure incoming HC Lincoln Riley is watching this tilt closely. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (USC) - after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games against opponent after allowing 42 points or more last game are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB team (CALIFORNIA) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 28-64 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on USC to cover 

Im betting on. a huge emotional  letdown from Michigan this week after defeating Ohio State last time out. The Wolverines after a huge win and celebration are now vulnerable vs a less talented but extremely cohesive team that is coached by one of football most under rated HCs Kirk Ferentz.

Iowa are 12-3-2 ATS  vs .850  or better conf opposition. 

Michigan 1-5 ATS vs .800 or better  conference  opposition. 

CFB favorite of 6 plus points with a superior record than its opp in its conference championship game – if coming off an ATS win of 15 or more points and facing an .800 or less foe are just 1-10 ATS L/25 seasons.

Play on Iowa to cover 

  Bearcats  are undefeated on the season  and have won 26 straight home games at Nippert Stadium, and stud QB Desmond Ridder has never lost a tilt on his home field and nothing Im betting will change today against Houston. The Bearcats are an elite team, and when motivated can easily smash a team like Houston. the Bearcats motivation will come from the fact that they will be the first power 5 team to go to the college football play offs with a win here today, and Im betting they do it in conclusive fashion.  Hey I know how well Houston has played but they are in over their heads here this Saturday. 

Cincinnati is 5-0  ATS in their L/5 games vs .900 or better opposition. Houston is just 1-6 SU/ATS  L/7 visits here . CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less  yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 1-10 ATS L/11 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5  or less yards per return. 

CFB home team (CINCINNATI) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins are 32-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.\

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival, when playing on a Saturday are 28-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

SBC Championship Game

Lafayette won the only meeting between these teams this season, 41-13 and App State despite of wanting revenge do not matchup well vs Cajuns. Note: Lafayette is 6-1 ATS L/7 in conference action at home as a dog vs a team they beat in their previous meeting.

Lafayette HC Napier who leaves for Gainesville after this tilt  is   11-5 ATS L/16 as a dog, including 7-1 ATS when coming off consecutive wins .

APPALACHIAN ST is 2-10 ATS  after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins 

CFB home team vs. the money line (LA LAFAYETTE) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins are 33-7 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play on Lafayette to cover

The Aztecs  own the 2nd best ground defense in the nation  and they are dangerous  smash and grab specialists  forcing takeaways. The Aztecs are tough as nails  on defense  overall ranking  No. 13 in the nation and multi dimensional on offense when they need to be as they proved vs Boise State, a Im betting Utah State will have issues with this type of side.  Look for Utah State to become one dimensional on offense,  as moving the chains on the ground will be difficult and for a muted effort from them here today against this strong Aztec stopping units . 

CFB Road underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (UTAH ST) - after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 1-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 ppg which qualify on this ATS line offering. 

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Big-12 Championship Game - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Oklahoma State took out Oklahoma last week, and now have a huge amount of confidence entering this game against the Baylor Bears. Oklahoma State (11-1) is in good position to make the College Football Playoff with a victory and we should find them very motivated in crunch time.

Note:Cowboys are 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS laying points in this series and in their current top tier defensive form ranking No.3 in the nation in D allowing just 16.4 ppg . With that said, Im betting they have an edge here today of a TD or less making this a viable wagering opportunity with the favorite. 

Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS with single-digit spreads this season. Cowboys are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. .Bears are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.

OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 ATS  in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons.OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 ATS against conference opponents this season. Gundy is 12-4 ATS in road games after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of OKLAHOMA ST.

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

UM is giving up just 13 points per game and are getting alot of respect from the lines-makers , (to much in my betting opinion) even here on their own field.  EWU is scoring 44.2 points, and in the first meeting between these teams blitzed UM for four plays of 35 or more yards , while Montanas 10 other opponents combined for three plays of more than 35 yards. EWU won that battle, by a 34-28 count and once again matchup well here behind an explosive offense that scored and 51 Red Zone TDs and  has shown it can have its way with this strong defense. Key to game:Last week, EWU ran for 129 yards against a Northern Iowa defense that was allowing just 83.3 yards per game on the ground and in their first meeting vs Montana went over 100 yards rushing, (one of only two teams to achieve that vs the Grizzlies this season) Im betting on them breaching the century mark here on the ground which will once again open up their explosive air attack which in turn will be the ultimate difference maker. 

Play on Eastern Washington to cover

Pac-12 Championship Game - Allegiant Stadium - Paradise, NV

When these teams played earlier this season, Utah owned the Ducks winning 38-7 and completely shut them down offensively and Im betting they will put their offense on mute again, in a tilt I project to have an output in the lower to mid 50s giving us value on this offered number. 

OREGON is 20-8  L/28 UNDER revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more . Under is 10-2 in Ducks last 12 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Under is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 games as an underdog.

UTAH is 12-2 UNDER  in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Whittingham is 7-0 UNDER after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of UTAH with a combined average of 47.1 ppg. 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (UTAH) - outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games are 30-9  UNDER. L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

CFB team against the total (OREGON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are  60-26 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER 

 Oklahoma State Defense are pure stoppers  ranking   No. 1 in the nation in third down stops, No. 1 in sacks and tackles for loss, No. 2 in scoring, and No. 3 in total defense.Now just at the perfect time  coming into this game against long time rivals  the Oklahoma Sooners  the Cowboys offensive  attack has  revved up and is now hitting on all cylinders  recording  400 yards or more in three of the last four trips to the gridiron. Right now the Boyz are complete package of a team and a very dangerous opponent for a Sooners side that depends on explosive offensive plays to achieve positive results. Advantage Oklahoma State.

OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.OKLAHOMA ST is 8-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread this season.OKLAHOMA ST is 8-0 ATS  after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers this season.

CFB home team vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) - in conference games, after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite are 34-3 L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) - in conference games, after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite are 45-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

   15th-ranked UTSA Roadrunners will be under extreme pressure to  complete an undefeated regular season here against a stout opponent that has won 4 straight games covering all 4. The Mean Green still have to win their home finale for bowl eligibility  and have plenty to play for other than just ruining the Roadrunners undefeated season .Advantage North Texas 

NORTH TEXAS is 6-0 ATS   after playing a conference game this season.NORTH TEXAS is 16-5 ATS off 3 straight wins against conference rivals since 1992. 

CFB home team (NORTH TEXAS) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins are 30-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB team (UTSA) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 25-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

North Texas to cover 

When Georgia State records more than 25.1 points, it is 3-1 against the spread and 4-0 overall and my projections expect a 28 plus or more point output. The Panthers have covered the spread twice this season when favored by 6.5 points or more (in three chances).This season, the Trojans have just one ATS victory in four games as an underdog of 6.5 points or more and are once again fade material here at a TD or less.

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 62% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (TROY) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 2-37 L/29 seasons for a go against 95% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -20.9 ppg qualifying on this ATS line offering. 

Play on Georgia State to cover 

This Michigan football program is off one its worst in its  history last season, and they have responded with poise and bounced back in a big way. The one loss to Michigan State was not completely surprising considering recent snake bites they have suffered in this series. However, wins vs Penn State and Wisconsin  including some close road wins solidified their ability to compete. I know Ohio State is the better overall side, but with the grit the Wolverines have shown Im betting on a big effort here and cover as the redemption tour continues.

MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS  in games played on turf this season.

 CFB home team vs. the money line (MICHIGAN) - off 1 or more straight overs, with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game are 69-8 SU L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.  

CFB  home team (MICHIGAN) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins are 30-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

The Bears lead the Big 12 in total offense behind the duo of Abram Smith and Treston Ebner  and are ultimately very fluid with their chess like attacks. This Bears team has a uncanny way of controlling the tempo of  a game and Im betting  Texas Techs  wont keep up . Note: I know Blake Shapen is expected to be under center today for the Bears but this kid is talented and he will be out to make an impression and let the running game do the rest. 

Red Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Red Raiders are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.Red Raiders are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Red Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.

BAYLOR is 10-1 ATS ( versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. BAYLOR is 6-0 ATS ( in home lined games this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at 20 ppg. BAYLOR is 6-0 ATS ( after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game this season with a ppg diff clicking in at +21.7 ppg. 

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (TEXAS TECH) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after out gaining  opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 2-37 L/29 seasons for a 95% go against conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -20.9 ppg which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (BAYLOR) - good rushing team (190-230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) after 7+ games, in conference games are 25-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

Play on Baylor to cover 

Kent State destroyed Akron last week by a 38-0 count and continue to show explosive offensive continuity averaging 46.8 ppg at home. On the flip-side , visiting Miami O is only averaging 19.8 ppg in offense when playing in the visitors role. Kent State has the advantage. 

KENT ST is 12-3 ATS  in home games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. KENT ST is 10-2 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.

CFB home team vs. the money line (KENT ST) - off a huge blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival, with a winning record on the season are 48-8 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kent State to cover 

E.Carolina is playing their best football of the season, as they enter this game on a 4 game win streak, and have played their best football at home this season winning 4 of 5 games while allowing just 18.8 ppg defensively. I know Cincinnati is a top tier team but they have played a long hard schedule, at a very high level and from time to time this season, have played games against lower tier sides like its a de-facto bye week. Advantage East Carolina 

Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.Bearcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on grass

CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons.

E CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. E CAROLINA is 12-3 ATS in home games against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better . Houston is 12-2 ATS L/15  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. as the coach of E CAROLINA. Pirates are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

CFB home team vs. the money line (E CAROLINA) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins are 31-6 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on East Carolina to cover 

Air Force took part in a 41-39 offensive slugfest last time vs Nevada. However, previous to that shootout, the Falcons had allowed 10, 14, 17, 20, 21, 21 points respectively and only twice during that span scored more than 24 points. The Falcons love to pound the ball on the ground and here in a emotional letdown spot after their previous blockbuster will now be more conservative and ready to get back to playing solid D. This Im betting results in a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers might indicate. Note: UNLV has averaged just 21.6 ppg on the road this season. 

AIR FORCE in straight  home games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined score of 39.2 ppg go on the board. AIR FORCE is 7-0 UNDER   off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 34 ppg scored.  AIR FORCE is 21-5 UNDER in home games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games with a combined average of 44.3 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (AIR FORCE) - after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 82-39 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

Texas is in free fall after suffering 6 straight losses. Ending their futility today Im betting wont come easy if at all and Kansas States strong defense will be the difference maker. Im not saying this version of the  Texas Longhorns  is soft but their defense certainly is  allowing 32.9 ppg overall  and will be their downfall here today as it has been all season long. 

KANSAS ST is 11-1 ATS L/12  as a road underdog of 3 points or less .  KANSAS ST is 6-0 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons

 TEXAS is 0-6 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Kansas State to cover 

Eastern Michigans  passing attack  is explosive and the  ground game has been balanced and hard to stop .  That was evident in a  22-21 win over top tier Mac opponent Western Michigan. With a offense that rip points up on the board in bunches the Eagles are solid underdogs. 

Creighton is 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of E MICHIGAN.Creighton is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game as the coach of E MICHIGAN.Creighton is 12-2 ATS   in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of E MICHIGAN.Creighton is 16-4 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. as the coach of E MICHIGAN. 

E MICHIGAN is 15-2 ATS in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less  yards per return. 

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

This game has implications for the races in both the West and Mountain divisions and Im expecting both sides to leave everything on the field it what the lines-makers and myself expect to be a very close game, with the points in my betting opinion ending up being golden. 

The Aztecs defense is  a wall against opposing ground games, and it all ties together with an offense that controls games in a very chess like conservative fashion. In a big game like this the home side looks like viable option getting points. 

SAN DIEGO ST is 7-0 ATS  after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.Hoke is 11-2 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached.

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Egg Bowl

Mississippi State sits at 7-4 overall and 4-3 in the SEC West.  Ole Miss is 2nd in the division at 9-2 overall, 5-2 in conference play.

The Miss State Bulldogs have played well against higher-ranked teams, especially as hosts, taking out NC State, Kentucky, and Auburn at Davis Wade.  All of those football programs were ranked at the time. Im betting Leach and company have the edge again vs their higher ranked opponent. Key tonight will be  the Bulldogs strong rush defense which ranks  No. 21, in the nation and  4th in the SEC behind Georgia, Alabama and A&M which will take away from the Rebels being able to open up their pass game , which will limit their offensive options. On the flipside Im betting Miss State QB Rogers will meticulously follow a controlled game plan that will utilize everything available to him and give the viable Ole Miss D more than what they can plan for. 

Leach is 32-12 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more  rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.Leach is 22-7 ATS  in home games after gaining 375 or more passing yards in 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games are 38-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate.

Play on Miss State to cover/win

 SAN JOSE STATE ranks 112th in points per game and 114th in yards per game and Im betting will once again struggle for consistent offensive flow vs Fresno State. Meanwhile, the The Bulldogs’ secondary is one of the tops in the nation , ranking eighth in Passing Success Allowed, and 5th in  opponent completion percentage. On the flipside, Fresno State is more explosive offensively behind QB Haener, but it must be noted that the Spartans D is stout,  ranking 23rd in coverage rating and 34th in yards per pass allowed with the defensive line ranking registering at 40th in pass rush and 48th in Sack Rate. This is a big game for San Jose State so Im betting they play this game like a chess match knowing they are outgunned, which in turn Im betting  will see a muted combined score that fails to eclipse this offered total. 

SAN JOSE ST is 8-1 UNDER  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored.

CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (FRESNO ST) - after out-gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 42-14 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (SAN JOSE ST/FRESNO ST) - in conference games, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 188-122 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

This is a big  game for San Jose State, as a win  would make it bowl eligible. Needless to say Im betting we pull out all the stops to find a way to get a victory here. Im betting on the Spartans top tier D to keep them in this game until the end. 

SAN JOSE ST is 9-1 ATS  in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.SAN JOSE ST is 13-4 ATS L/17 after gaining 3.25 or less yards/play in their previous game. Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on field-turf.

Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings. 

Play on the San Jose Spartans to cover

Northern Illinois clinched the  MAC West and motivation this week maybe an issue as well as trying to stay healthy before they go to Ford Field and play for the conference title. So Im betting on a muted effort here, by N.Illinois while Western Michigan really does not have alot to play after a  very inconsistent season as they are projected to get an invite to a lower level bowl. Western Michigan has one of the better running games and today I expect they will employ that in grinding fashion, as they try to keep the explosive attack of the Huskies off the field, which in turn will keep the clock churning in what Im betting will be a lower scoring game than the pundits anticipate. 

Note: These two sides rank 104th and 96th in tempo in the nation.

N.Illinois ha clinched a N ILLINOIS is 24-9 UNDER  in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored with a combined average of 52.9 ppg scored.N ILLINOIS is 17-6 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 with a combined average of 53.5 ppg scored during that 23 game sample size. 

CFB  team against the total (W MICHIGAN) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 85-36 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

After being very competitive this season , Syracuse looked tired/lifeless vs Louisville last week in a 41-3 loss. Previous to that 5 of their L/6 games were all decided by 4 points or less and they have won the stats battles in 8 of 10 games this season. There is good news coming for  Syracuse bettors this week as Babers is 8-0 ATS after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game as the coach of SYRACUSE. On the flip-side NC States HC Doeren is 0-9 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game as the coach of NC STATE like Syracuse. I expect Syracuse to pound away on the ground today and to take advantage of Wolfpack side that has failed to cover 4 of their L/5 as 10 or more point home fav in conference tilts. 

SYRACUSE is 12-3 ATS L/15 vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return. SYRACUSE is 8-2 ATS in all games this season. 

CFB Road underdogs (SYRACUSE) - with a good offense - averaging 5.8 or more yards/play, after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game are 30-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Play on Syracuse to cover 

Rivals go head to head today in southern California , and Im betting the under performing but under rated home side has the edge. 

The UCLA secondary is vulnerable as is evident by  allowing an average of  240 yards per game. The one thing that USC can do consistently is go deep and make passes, and that what will be the difference maker here today. UCLA is 4-14 ATS L/18 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%).

USC has been a recent ATM when faltering going 6-0 ATS as a home pup when coming off consecutive losses, including a  6-0 ATS mark as a home dog with a below .500 record.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (USC) - with 16 total starters returning are 76-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play USC to cover 

UConn has averaged 13.8 ppg on offense this season and my projections estimate a even lower aggregate here  vs UCF that allows just 15.8 ppg at home vs better competition. This outlook leans heavy on this being a game that will not see this combined score eclipse the offered number. Note: UCF allowed 55 points in a loss to SMU last week, but prior to that they allowed 7, 7 10 points respectively and a return to strong defensive play is key here for the home side. 

Malzahn is 10-1 UNDER  in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 44.5 ppg scored. 

CFB  teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UCF) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game.are 24-3 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with a combined average of 42.4 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

CFB  Road underdogs vs. the money line (RICE) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 1-34 L/5 seasons for a go against 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking at -19 ppg. 

Play on UTEP

Alabama has crushed   Arkansas 100-10 count  in the last two meetings and Im betting on another beatdown here, as the Tide ramp up into championship form, especially on defense, where they have allowed just 15.8 ppg at home this season. Alabama is 5-1 ATS as home favorite of less than 24 points.

Lay and it and play it on Alabama to cover 

The UTSA Roadrunners come into this game undefeated, but Im betting they will have their hands full with UAB this week in a key game. Its alot of pressure for a team to stay undefeated in College Football, and Im betting they feel the heat here today vs a UAB side that is ntorious for picking up big wins in key games. Note: The Blazers allow a little over 100 rushing yards per game, and  they lead the league in total defense. Defence wins championships and in this case gets us the cover in this spot play. 

Clark is 30-14 ATS  against conference opponents as the coach of UAB.Clark is 12-3 ATS  after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers as the coach of UAB.


CFB Home favorites (UTSA) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 18-44 ATS L/29 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UAB to cover

Iowa State has big time revenge on board vs  Oklahoma this Saturday , after  having their butts handed to them  in last year’s Big 12 Championship. Note:Iowa State is a profitable 5-1 ATS L/6 away with conference revenge .I know the Cyclones are also off a loss last week in heart breaking fashion, but now that will make them even hungrier as a collective.  Advantage Iowa State.

Cyclones are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up loss.Cyclones are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog.

Sooners are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in November.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (OKLAHOMA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in weeks 10 through 13 are 45-85 ATS L/29 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.(Lost a Baylor last week 27-14)

Iowa State to cover 

Clemson slowly but surely has gotten back towards championship form and now must be respected here at home to handle a one way Wake Forest offensive juggernaut.  The Clemson D, Im betting will give Wake a real test, while the Deacons D, is usually their weak link and wont stand up very well in the end. (Wake ha allowed an average of 42 ppg on the road this season) 

Clemson HC Swinney is 14-2 SU L/16  when having won  three straight games..

WAKE FOREST is 0-6 ATS  in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Road underdogs (WAKE FOREST) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 50-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

Clemson to cover 

Air Force has impressed me this season, winning the stats battles in 9 of 10 games and are 4-0 SU/ATS on the road this season  and after watching them take down Colorado state last time out on the road by a 35-21  margin it became clear they are for real. Now the  talented and gritty Falcons crew  take to  the road again and Im betting they wont be intimidated at all here by a Nevada side that did not completely live up to expectations this season and now in a emotional letdown spot, after losing a key heart breaker to San Diego State last week. .

CFB  team (AIR FORCE) - after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 55-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Air Force to cover 

Memphis games have not eclipsed the total in 4 straight opportunities. Meanwhile, I know Houston ash really been lighting up the scoreboard but it must be noted  Holgorsen is 8-0 UNDER L/8 after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games in all games he has coached with a combined average of 52.7 ppg scored. Im expecting a harder fought battle than many expect with less points than the most expect.

MEMPHIS is 23-5 UNDER L/28  in road games in weeks 10 through 13 . 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (HOUSTON) - with a good rushing D - allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games are 33-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 52.3 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

There is alot of pressure here on the Houston Cougars as a win this week against a dangerous Memphis side and another next week vs UConn and HC Holgernson and company will take on Cincinnati in the AC Conference Championship game. However, Memphis would love to play spoiler here and they do have the offensive weapons to make Houston sweat and to get us the all important cover. Note: Memphis is 5-1 SU/ 6-0 ATS L/6 in this series and must be respected because of their explosiveness and ability to get a upset win or backdoor cover.

Holgorsen is 29-47 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. in all games he has coached since 1992

CFB underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MEMPHIS) - with 16 total starters returning are a profitable bet going 78-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play on Memphis to cover 

Duke cant stop the run or the pass, and they have pretty well given up any kind of gritty play which is necessary when looking for strong defensive efforts.Duke has allowed and average of 45 points per game in their L/4 trips to the gridiron. Duke also  ranks  (104th in Success Rate Allowed via the run),  (103rd in Success Rate Allowed via the pass) or the big play (124th). The Blue Devils have had success running the ball as was the case vs Virginia Tech and Im betting they have the same success again which will open play action down field for some scores vs a Louisville secondary that  gets torched for big plays mostly because they open up the field because of not being able to stop opposing ground attacks. Meanwhile, Louisville really put the boots to a good Syracuse D last week, by scoring 41 points, by mostly running our side the tackles, which Im betting will be a successful formula this week, vs a side that is porous and slow at best. This game has the makings of a big ugly scoring slugfest. 

DUKE is 11-2 OVER  in home games off 2 consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals with a combined average of 63 ppg scored. 

CFB team against the total (LOUISVILLE) - after a win by 21 or more points against opponent after 3 straight losses by 21 or more points are 25-6 OVER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

This total opened around 63 on the board , but than sharp money has come in ever since and driven the number down to a bit to much according to my projections which sets my estimates in at 61 which gives us almost a FG edge to the over.  I know we are expecting to see some rain in Muncie tonight, but the field turf @ Scheumann Stadium will handle it well. Note:  Central Michigan has allowed 39, 30 and 30 points respectively in their L/30 while scoring 38, 42,54 points in their L/3 overall. Even if the Chippewas regress because of weather and other reasons  Im betting on them putting out  a +30 out offensive output here, while allowing +30 points to a Ball State offense that has shown flashes of brilliance scoring 45 on Western Michigan and 38 points on Eastern Michigan. At this offering we have value to the OVER. 

McElwain is 8-1 OVER (when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of C MICHIGAN with the average combined score clicking in at 69.7 ppg.C MICHIGAN  in  their L/9 November games over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 68.5 ppg scored.

Neu is 6-0 OVER  in home games off a road loss against a conference rival as the coach of BALL ST with the average combined score registering at 73 ppg. BALL ST  in their L/9 games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons have seen a average team offensive output of 34.9 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Play OVER

E.Michigan is bowl eligible, but must garner a victory tonight   and beat Northern Illinois next week , as well some other uncontrollable good luck to be able to get a share of the  MAC West title. Needless to say Im betting the Eagles will leave everything on the field today vs a Western Michigan team that gives up alot of big plays in the secondary. 

Eagles are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games following a straight up loss.

Creighton is 13-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) as the coach of E MICHIGAN.  Eagles are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games as an underdog.

W MICHIGAN is 2-10 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons. W MICHIGAN is 0-6 ATS  after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons.W MICHIGAN is 3-12 ATS L/15 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  Broncos are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games.

Lester is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game as the coach of W MICHIGAN.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (E MICHIGAN) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 38-11 ATS L/29 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

Im betting the difference maker here tonight is the Aztecs top tier Defence. 

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (SAN DIEGO ST) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games are 37-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors.

San Diego State to win 

Wake Forest  explosive offense  Im betting will really be aggressive and  attack the Wolpacks  D which has  allowed over 400 yards in three of its last five games. Advantage Wake Forest. 

WAKE FOREST is 6-0 ATS  in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons.

NC STATE is 1-10 ATS  versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons.

CFB home team (WAKE FOREST) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 39-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (WAKE FOREST) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games are 37-2 L/10 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Rested Virginia was on a 4 game win streak before being derailed last time out  in a back and forth offensive slugfest but now Im betting on a bounce back effort vs Notre Dame.

NOTRE DAME is 8-26 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992.

Virginia is 16-3 ATS vs .800 or better opposition. Virginia is 5-1 ATS L/6 off a bye. 

VIRGINIA is 8-1 ATS  in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. VIRGINIA is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons. Mendenhall is 7-0 ATS in home games after scoring 42 points or more last game as the coach of VIRGINIA which was the case vs BYU in a 49-66 loss. 

CFB  home team (VIRGINIA) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 70-36 ATS L/29 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Virginia to cover 

Sooners’ are over rated and the pollsters know it , but the lines makers don't seem to because of their lengthy win streak keep propping them up which is great for sharp money but not so much so for the diehard fans who back the Sooners no matter what .  Yes the Sooners have found ways to win this season but are 0-6 ATS with HC Lincoln Riley at the helm as conference road favorites.  Nothing seems to be coming easily for the Oklahoma and that will continue here vs a side in Baylor that is playing in revenge mode for a loss last year in this series.   The Bears are 20-5 SUATS at home in Waco the last 10 seasons against opposition  coming off a victory including 8-0 ATS as an under dog.  BAYLOR is 8-0 ATS  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.

CFB home team (BAYLOR) - good rushing team (190-230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) after 7+ games, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 23-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. 

Play on the Baylor Bears to cover