Louisville is in a huge emotional letdown situation after smashing Notre Dame last week in all out effort. Needless to say they are vulnerable here on the road in Pittsburgh this week, against a sub par side that still however boasts the best run defense in the nation and must not be underestimated. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - off 2 consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals, in weeks 5 through 9 are 48-18 L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Pittsburgh 7-2 ATS L/9 in this series vs the Cardinal. 

Play on Pittsburgh to cover

Two old Mountain West rivals go head to head today in what Im betting will be a back and forth affair. BYU is fresh off a bye week,  and Im betting their top tier offense will be ready and fresh for TCU sometimes viable D.  The Cougars were said to have worked on their running game with the extra prep time, and if they have made advancement it will make their already viable passing game even more tangible. Meanwhile,TCU would be all but eliminated from the Big 12 race with  a loss today, so you can bet they will also be primed to perform in aggressive fashion. 

BYU has averaged 32.5 ppg in offense on the road while allowing 34.5 ppg. Meanwhile TCU 34.5 ppg in offense at home. 

Injury update:BYU wide receivers Kody Epps and Parker Kingston will play for the Cougars against TCU. Epps was one of BYU's top wide receivers in 2022.

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TCU) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game are 64-32 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

MICHIGAN is 8-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points over the last 2 seasons.MICHIGAN is 6-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points over the last 2 seasons

Memphis lost a 38-28 decision on the road to Tulane last season and now have revenge on board for what is a must win situation tonight at home since the Tigers will play 4 of their L/6 games on the road after tonight. The Tigers only loss this season came by a TD deficit vs Missouri and they must not be underestimated in their abilities. It must be noted Memphis is 8-1 ATS L/9 at home as a underdog. 

Memphis  is 10-1 SU at home in this series L/11 meetings. 

CFB Home underdogs (MEMPHIS) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team ( 80%)or more  playing a team with a winning record are 38-15 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis Tigers to cover

West Virginia is on a nice 4-0 ATS run but it must be noted they lost the stats battles in their last 2 wins both as underdogs and are being over rated here tonight vs what can be an explosive offensive foe in Houston.  Note:CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W VIRGINIA) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to cover

Florida International has revenge on board for a ugly 40-6  road loss last season to UTEP and Im betting they will be prepared to get pay back here tonight. 

Florida International have proved they have improved this season already notching 3 wins vs , Uconn , N.Texas and Maine. FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-0 straight up against UTEP since 1992 at home. Utep has lost 4 straight snd are winless in their L/ 5 tries against FBS teams, also going 0-5 against the spread (ATS). UTEP is winless in 3 road tilts this season, losing the last 2 games by 21 or more points. 

UTEP has lost 11 of their L/12 road games.

UTEP is 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.UTEP is 0-6 ATS   after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 season.

Play on FIU to cover

Liberty has averaged 36.8 ppg per game on offense this season, and 46.5 ppg on the road in two tilts. Meanwhile Jacksonville State has averaged 30.5 ppg on offense and Im betting they will have to open up here against a Liberty side that can put points on the board in bunches against the best of defenses. It must be noted that Veteran coach Rich Rodriguez is well respected  for his offensive prowess throughout his career and Im betting he formulates an aggressive effort here in this tilt. I know some of the current team trends might have many leaning to the under, but Im not one of them. 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (LIBERTY/Jacksonville St) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), in conference games are 36-8 OVER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 70.7 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (JACKSONVILLE ST) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 22-3 OVER L/31 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with a combined average of 68.6 ppg scored. 

Play on the over

.I know Louisville is getting alot of accolades this season, but the harsh truth is they are a level or two below the visiting Irish. Louisville in my opinion is not a national contender while Notre Dame is this season which was obvious in how they handled Ohio State, despite of their last second loss. Just one thing, I must mention and that is  Im not bashing the Cardinal they are a fine looking speedy team, but the Irish are just a superior side. Also it must be noted that the Cardinal are 1-3 in the stats battles against FBS sides despite of being 5-0 this season. Cards passing D, is also allowing an average 7.4 YPP, which is not a good omen against a arm like QB Hartman and his accomplished WRs. 

 The Fighting Irish have owned the ACC in the  recent  past from a betting perspective going a perfect 10-0 SUATS L/10   and are  6-0 SUATS with HC Marcus Freeman on the sidelines  with the  average winning ppg  diff clicking in at  +19.5 PPG.

Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here and for the Iriish to come out of this with a conclusive victory and more importantly a cover. 

CFB home team (LOUISVILLE) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Notre Dame to cover

Both these sides have had problems early this season and both are at 1-3 overall.Ole Dominion has over achieved when looking at their positive point spread work, while Southern Miss has failed  to live up to some experts projections.  Both are obviously desperate for a win, but  when looking at my power rankings its obvious to me the home side has the slight edge based on some factors that may not come across in the msm sports media statistical analysis. After two back and forth tilts that Old Dominion lost but covered will now be in a huge letdown situation with this being their 2nd straight road tilt. With a big game against App State up next I expect Old Dominion to be in a vulnerable spot . 

OLD DOMINION is 2-10 ATS L/12 after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more .

CFB road team vs. the money line (OLD DOMINION) - terrible ball control team, 28 or less minutes TOP, 16 or less  first downs per game, after being controlled in time of possession 3 straight games( 27 or less min) are 1-25 L/26 seasons for a go against 96% conversion rate. 

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (OLD DOMINION) - after beating the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 1-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 96% go against conversion rate. 

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (SOUTHERN MISS) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 30-1 L/5 seasons for a  97% conversion rate!

Play on Southern Miss to cover

The Cougars star  junior quarterback Cam Ward is really something to watch and must be respected . He has 14 TDs and no interceptions and leads the nations 2nd best offensive passing attack. The Cougars a team averaging 45 points per game,  and are live dogs here in my betting opinion vs a UCLA  side that does not look as fluid or a consistent as the Cougars.  Note: Kelly is 4-12 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game as the coach of UCLA . Advantage Washington State 

Washington States football program is  17-0 ATS L/17  in games following a SU underdog victory  .

CFB home team (UCLA) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (UCLA) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 4 straight games are 6-26 L/30 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB toad underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON ST) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (440 or more  YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 35-12 L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington State to cover

Buffalo has momentum after garnering a road win in OT last time out at Akron. BUFFALO is 16-6 ATS  in home games off a win against a conference rival. Meanwhile, Central Michigan despite of a 3-2 record this season, has been far from dominant with all  3 of their wins ending in 4 point or less margin differentials. Considering the Chips are 0-7 ATS L/7  as favs vs sub .500 sides like the Bulls it will not be a difficult proposition for me to take points here with the home side. C MICHIGAN is  also just 1-8 ATS  in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Buffalo to cover

Last season the Longhorns smashed the the Sooners by a 49-0 count and now Oklahoma has big time revenge on board. It must be noted 5-0 teams like Texas going against an avenging foe are just 23-43-2 ATS since 1980. Texas is also 0-9 ATS L/9 on the road vs conference side with revenge like the Sooners. 

The Longhorns are  1-5 SU all time  when in. a battle of undefeated teams.  

TEXAS is 9-22 ATS L/31 in road games after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins. 

According to my projections these teams are evenly matched thus getting this many points is a blessing in disguise. I know   Mathew McConaughey might disagree but Im sticking to my guns here and taking the points with the Sooners at the Cotton Bowl today.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) - with a good first half defense - 8 or less points per game, after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Oklahoma to cover

Everyone and his dog now is up an arms against the viability of this Illinois team after a gutless effort against Purdue last time out in a ugly 44-10 loss as road chalk. HC Bret Bielema is now officially on the hot seat after being the darling of the Illinois fan base coming to this season. I know alot of ppl have lost faith in Illini, but Im going to actually back them against a Nebraska  program that just cant get over the hump and maybe even more lacking in the respect category.

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are just  42-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +22.5 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (NEBRASKA) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 4-62 L/10 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate with the qverqge ppg diff clicking in at -19.9 which easily qualifies in this ATS offering. 

Play on Illinois to cover

My projections estimate a combined score that will be in low to mid 50s, making this Totals offer vulnerable .New Mexico State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI) New Mexico State  solid run game should really pile up the yards  against an FIU defense that ranks 98th in Stuff Rate and 53rd in Defensive Rushing Plays Explosiveness. The Aggies coming in to their last game at  Hawaii were averaging 33 points per game and 4.1 Points per Opportunity , but very high winds gave their offense some problems in that tilt, but here this week back at home should be ready to roll. Meanwhile, the Panthers have  recorded one-score victories over Maine, North Texas, and UConn  and must not be under estimated in their ability to fire back offensively here on the road in Las Cruces. 

 I know these teams have played a slow pace so far, but Im betting the Aggies ability to put points on the board via their run game will force the FIU to up the tempo and for total to be eclipsed. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team are 35-9 OVER L/30 season's for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the over

Rice lost last week  42-29 to South Florida but QB JT Daniels threw for 491 of the Owls’ 492 total yards and is a dangerous man under center. Considering E.Carolinas D was sliced and diced by all three FBS sides they played this season, for 30,31, 43 points respectively including giving up a whopping 702 combined yards passing in those games, Im betting Rices star QB rockn rolls his team to victory here at home.

Bloomgren is 6-0 ATS  in home games after a game where they committed no turnovers as the coach of RICE.

RICE is 26-10 ATS  in home games when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). RICE is 17-4 ATS L/21 in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (RICE) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Rice to win

Im betting Western Michigans Jalen Buckley,  who has registered 4 TDS already this season  while averaging  125 YPG will be key to the Broncos finding the win column. Considering Ball State just cant move the ball inconsistently and constantly making bad reads on offense as is evident by a  5  interceptions and just  3 TDs.   Ball State is losing the stats battles  an average of 172 YPG including allowing a whopping  40 or more points in their 3 ugly losses. 

CFB  Road underdogs vs. the money line (BALL ST) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 4-60 L/10 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Western Michigan 

Texas Tech lost West Virginia last time out on the road by a 20-14 count and will now be in bounce back mode at home here today. The Raiders are just 1-3 this season, but in a specific outing against top 10 Oregon they looked like they matched up well and only lost by a 38-30 count and must be respected here against a defensively deficient  Houston side that has already lost to Rice and TCU  while allowing 43 and 36 points respectively. TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS  off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 12.7 . 

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (Texas Tech) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Texas Tech to cover

South Floridas offensive line is horrendous already allowing 19 sacks and that will be their downfall today vs a physical Navy front 7. On the flip-side the Middies Im betting will plough through the Bulls defense via their vaunted one way ground attack. Also after a extra week of rest and now playing at home Im betting we see  Navy at their very best.

NAVY is 10-1 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game over the last 3 seasons. NAVY is 13-4 ATS ( against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Blowing a 31-10 lead in the fourth quarter to a Northwestern program that was on the ropes is arguably the worst loss of head coach P.J. Fleck's time in Minnesota. This kind of embarrassing loss will have Fleck prepared to coach a big game against a lower tier side. Getting off the hot seat is of prime importance and getting the Gopher fans to lay down their pitchforks  I believe Fleck has the personnel to get it done this week in convincing fashion after last weeks gutless sleepy effort. Note: UL Lafayette has allowed an average of 36 ppg so far this season in what looks to be a wide open type of game plan. Im betting that wont work well against this power 5 opponent. 

LA LAFAYETTE is 0-9 ATS  after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (they beat Mac side Buffalo last week in a 45-38 shootout) Regression expected. 

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (Minnesota ) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Minnesota to cover

Penn State is the real deal and in my opinion a true national contender, and my thought s were reinforced after watching them slam dunk Iowa 31-0. With that said,  Im betting they will be wide awake here knowing their opponent Northwestern came back form a 31-10 deficit in the 4th quarter last time out for a miraculous 34-31 win vs Minnesota. From a talent and coaching  perspective this line does not do the discrepancies justice, and laying this may points is not a problem for me. Note: Penn State when coming off consecutive SUATS victories , is 13-0-1 ATS in conference tilts. Also NW is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS after a SU victory. 

Play on Penn State to cover 

Im betting Kentucky has finally arrived as a SEC side to be feared and not because of their talent but their grit  . I know Florida has the bigger brand name and following, but the Wildcats proved recently they can handle the Gators as was evident last season when they took out the Gators on the road and also ended a 14 game home losing streak in this series back in 2021.  FLORIDA is 2-10 ATS   off a home win over the last 3 seasons.

The Wildcats defense has forced multiple takeaways in three of the four tilts and has been solid  against the run and hasn’t allowed anyone to record 100 yards on the ground. Florida Im betting will be forced to be more one dimensional and despite of some good results this season, are in for a more formidable experience here today against a gritty Kentucky football program that plays with pride and passion. 

KENTUCKY is 14-4 ATS  in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

CFB home team vs. the money line (KENTUCKY) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half are 39-2  L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Kentucky Wildcats 

Both BYU and Cincinnati are off losses last week, but Im betting the Bearcats wont be able to bounce back as easily as they were physically smothered and battered by the Oklahoma D, only scoring 6 points and when nearing the  red zone looked completely lost. In the Cougars loss to Kansas BYU ran more plays for more yards than the Jayhawks but turnovers proverbially  killed them. 

This week in this matchup Im betting on a BYU D, that has looked good against the run to slow down the Beracats attack, and on the flipside for the potent Cougars passing attack to do well vs a Cincinnati D, that does better against the run than the pass. I know BYU has had a tremendous amount of trouble running the ball, but their passing attack behind Slovis has been explosive and that Im betting will be key to them getting the cover here at home. 

CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons

CFB road team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 3-27 L/5 seasons for a 90% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Oregon State is off a road loss to Washington State last time out, but are now in a bounce back mode as they take on one of the favorites to win the PAC 12 championship this season (Utah). Oregon State has been a strong bet at home recently especially against conference opposition  as is evident by their 9-0 ATS record as hosts vs PAC 12 brethren over the last 3 seasons. OREGON ST is also 8-0 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. After sustaining a lopsided 42-16 loss last season on the road to the Utes a revenge scenario will have this Beavers side ready to deliver pay back in merciless fashion this Thursday night on home turf. 

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (OREGON ST) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Oregon State to cover/win 

Cardinal getting a little bit to much respect here as they have failed to cover both road games this season. Meanwhile, NC State 3-1  has yet to really get untracked behind QB transfer from Virginia Brennan Armstrong who according to my QB matchup ratings matches up well vs this Louisville secondary. Advantage to the home underdog. 

LOUISVILLE is 27-44 ATS  in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG are 33-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NC State to cover

Temple according to my power rankings is improving , and tonight I expect Owls QB Warner to light up a ugly looking Tulsa secondary for some decent production. I expect most of Qwls offense to come through the air, as their run offense has been quiet to say the least as evident by ranking 120th in the nation in rushing success .  Defensively, Temple has some issues ranking   105th in Defensive Finishing Drives and 126th in Havoc .With that said Im betting on Tulsas run heavy offense to really do some damage here vs a Temple side that ranks 67th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 90th in Rushing PPA. Both sides should see some explosive offensve production all be it in two different ways, but the bottom line remains intact and that is a higher socring game than the linesmakers totals offering suggests. My projections estimate both sides will score more than 28 points.TEMPLE is 27-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points with the combined average score clicking in at 77.8 ppg.TULSA is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 72.5 ppg scored. 

Play over

KState lost at Missouri last time out as favs and will now be very prepared to bounce back at home this week vs visiting UCF. Note: KANSAS ST is 8-1 ATS  after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS STATE is also 11-2 ATS when coming off their first loss of the season. UCF against their only FBS opponent this season lost to Boise State by a 18-16 count, and things look to be alot more tougher this week against a motivated opponent looking to get back into the win column. 

UCF is 0-7 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (UCF beat up on a lower tier Villanova side last week by a 48-14 count ) 

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (KANSAS ST) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 36-1 L/5 seasons with the average margin ppg diff clicking at +23.6 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Kansas State to cover

What  stands out here for me when I decided to take the points is Sam Houstons  D, which held their first two opponents to under 260 yards  while holding BYU and Air Force to 14 and 13 respectively. With the Cougars off a TCU battle, and now looking ahead  the Bearkats have a team that could find their motivational skills tested . Houston has lost the stats battle in all 3 games this season ,  and just dont look all that cohesive vs a upstart that will rattle them physically. Note: Sam Houston is 2-0 ATS this season. HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS  as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS  as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Sam Houston to cover

Wow what an embarrassment last week for the Razorbacks , at home vs BYU. Talk about falling a sleep at the proverbial wheel. The reason why I say this is that the Hogs owned the stats battle, outing gaining the Cougars by a 424-281 margin. Now going against a team that they were probably looking ahead in a  revenger for last season loss  against LSU  (LSU beat Arkansas 13-10), I expect  Sam Pittman  who has only failed in  one of  8 ATS as is visitor with revenge  to get the job done here . Note: Arkansas is also  7-1-1 ATS  on the road with conference revenge on board. .  : LSU is 0-8-1 ATS L/9 when favored by 13 or more points in conference home openers. .

Play on Arkansas to cover

Jayhawks are the nation’s top-ranked team  overall in returning production, and are currently outgunning their opponents this season by an average +231 net YPG and averaging 37 plus points per game on the season. Meanwhile, BYU in back to back games have scored 38 and 41 points and thanks to not being able to run the ball consistently have been firing away down field via their passing game. Today Im betting on a back and forth all guns blazing tilt with the combined average score eclipsing this number. 

My projections estimate both sides will score 28 plus points. KANSAS is 40-5 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points with a combined average of 77.5 ppg scored. .BYU is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. BYU is 9-0 OVER when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 67.6 ppg scored. 

Leipold is 10-1 OVER  after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins in all games he has coached with a combined average of 76.4 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (KANSAS) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 41-16 OVER L/31 seasons. 

Play over

Its obviously taking some time to get this version of the Crimson Tide to tho jell, but you can bet HC Saban will be primed to have his team prepared for undefeated Ole Miss here this week, after his first home game of the season vs Texas ended in surprising disaster. Last time out after that debacle the Tide started slowly but the D, shined in. a17-3 win vs USF, and once again will be the key to a Alabama victory here today vs a program they have beaten 15 of the L/16 times. It must also be noted that Saban in his  career when his team is coming off consecutive double-digit ATS losses, is 8-0 SUATS the L/8 opportunities and is also 8-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory and 4-0 SU/ATS versus undefeated sides with huge DD margin of victory being registered . Its been tough sledding on offense for Alabama but this week vs a over rated Ole Miss D, they do enough to get us the win and cover on a beat down opening line.   .

Play on Alabama to cover 

Vanderbilt could not even beat a Mountain West team last week losing to UNLV by a 40-37 count. I know that Kentucky plays Florida next week, but Im absolutely sure they will still be focused enough to dispose of this defensively deficient Commodores team in what will be a near empty stadium this Saturday.  CFB Road favorites of -425 or higher vs. the money line (KENTUCKY) - after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 43-1 SU with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +23.5 which qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Kentucky to cover

 Clemson not getting much respect here as the Seminoles are listed a road favs.  Thats interesting since considering   Dabo  Swinney is 93-8 SU since taking over the program 15 seasons ago ,  and  in Death Valley against undefeated opposition is  14-0 since 2015.  It must also be noted that the Seminoles may not be as good as they record suggests after a ugly late game effort vs Boston College last week, where they just about lost,. With  head coach Mike Norvell  losing 3 of 5 SU  and just 1-4 ATS away in conference games when coming in with no losses, its not like the Seminoles deserve this much respect as Norvell has lost both meetings against Swinnney in his career.  Tigers are  also a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in the last five in this  series  and get the nod again on their own home turf. CLEMSON is 12-3 ATS   in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game since 1992. FLORIDA ST is 21-37 ATS  in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEMSON) . an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 45-16 ATS since 1992 for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Clemson to cover

Wisconsin has owned this series winning 16 straight meetings and covering 13 of those. With HC Fickell looking like he has this Badgers team on the rise again, Im betting they get the job done vs a disorganized looking Purdue side, that continually makes bad offensive reads and a defense that has allowed and average of 30 plus points per game. 

Play on Wisconsin to cover

Georgia State looked explosive in thier first 3 games of the season with wins vs Rhode Island Connecticut and Charlotte scoring 42,35, and 41 points respectively. With revenge on board for a ugly loss to Coastal Carolina last season, you can bet we will be backing a wide awake side that will come out here with all guns blazing. With that said, its interesting to note that the Chanticleers are 0-6-1 ATS L/7 vs a side that will play them with revenge as a motivating factor.  

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

 GEORGIA ST is 11-1 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992. GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS  in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out. 

COASTAL CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS in home games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992.

Play on Georgia State to cover

Ken Wilson’s   Nevada  are a defensively challenged team as is evident by   allowing 552 yards per game ranking them (No. 123 in the country). thats not a good omen heading into this tilt vs an explosive Kansas Jayhawks side, that ranks No.10 in the nation in offense averaging 530 yards per game averaging 41 point per game. With that said, this looks very much to be a  mismatch of mammoth proportions. Note: Kansas is  10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS L/10 as 20 or more  point favorite . 

NEVADA is 0-6 ATS when they allow 500 or more total yards over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at  - 30.2 . 

CFB home team (NEVADA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 8-40 ATS L/31 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Kansas to cover

After upsetting Alabama last week the Texas Longhorns are in a huge emotional letdown situation. Also because of this the line is becoming public heavy offering us a great opportunity for a underdog cover vs a Wyoming side that is stable on both sides of the ball  and off a win vs Texas Tech last time out . This is a tough spot for the Longhorns as they have Baylor on board next time out, so their attention may not be fully where they need it to be.

TEXAS is 21-37 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

Longhorns are also  0-4-1 ATS as a double-digit favorites  in matchups when they are  off an upset victory as a underdog of 7 or more points. 

Wyoming is 3-0 ATS L/3 meetings in this series.

Play on Wyoming to cover 

The New Mexico Lobos are  0-8 ATS the last eight as a favorite and Im betting their losing run continues today in the battle of instate rivals here today. Lobos, are also 1-7 ATS the last eight games in this series.Last season NM State took a  21-9 win as 7-point chalk at Las Cruces  and I dont believe that the Lobos have made enough changes to get the revenge they want .

New Mexico State to cover

Syracuse Orange have looked impressive in their first two games, but they haven't  faced any top tier opponents, only taking out  a Group of Five opponent and a nonmajor side.Syracuse won last season's meeting with Purdue at home by, 32-29 count, as the teams combined for 42 fourth-quarter points , but now Im betting on the home side once again finding a way to come out on top . Dino Barber is a good coach , but this according to my power rankings is bad matchup for his side. Note: the Orange have struggled on the road, winning just five of their last 20 road games. They have also won just three of their L/17 tilts against Big Ten opposition. 

Play on Purdue to cover

Tennessee has lost 10 straight visits to the Swamp and Im betting knocking out that jinx run wont come easily today behind QB Joe Milton who cant seem to find a rhythm. You can bet HC Napier and company will play hard here vs a side, that will finally play a tough opponent after two FCSc cupcakes. Napier is also 3-0 SU/ATS with Florida as an underdog at home. 

CFB home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 22-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% onversion rate. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 27-6 ATS L/31` seasons for  a 82% conversion rate. 

Play on Florida to cover

JMU took out Virginia last week 36-35 and must be respected here against Troy getting points. Troys 12 game undefeated run came to a screeching halt in their tilt last week,  in a 42-13 loss to KsState and now they are in jeopardy of a two game losing streak. JMU is 22-8 in conference openers, which includes winning its past eight between 2015 and 2022.This is also JMU's fifth straight conference opener on the road.Last season, JMU rallied back from down 28-3 at App State, scoring 29 unanswered for a thrilling 32-28 win.

Play on James Madison to cover

This asking price for Georgia is just a little bit high according to my projections. In no shape or form am I saying south Carolina will pull of an uspet here, but they should be competitive. It must be noted that The  GameCocks  own a  7-0 ATS record  as the visitors in this series and must be respected in their ability to stay within the number. South Carolina has cashed 4 of their L/5 as road dogs of 15 points or more. 

Smart is 7-19 ATS  as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points as the coach of GEORGIA. Smart is 1-8 ATS  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as the coach of GEORGIA

GEORGIA is 3-12 ATS  in home games off 2 consecutive home wins since 1992.GEORGIA is 6-16 ATS in home games after a 2 game home stand since 1992.

Play on South Carolina to cover

ECU defense ranks  99th in total defense and 104th in scoring defense  and Im betting is in deep trouble vs the  Mountaineers. Meanwhile, App State is top-50 in total offense, passing offense, rushing offense and scoring offense and Im betting they tee off here today on their own home field vs a side that looks vulnerable . App State D, has also been sub par and even though the Pirates have not really been rhythmic on offense so far this season they should do enough damage here to help us eclipse this beat down number. Houston is 10-0 OVER off a home loss as the coach of E CAROLINA with a combined average of 79.3 ppg scored. (E.Carolina lost last time out 31-13 to Marshall.)

Play over

Georgia Southern must not be underestimated getting this may points as they  look to an explosive offensive side that can put points up on the board in a hurry as is evident  by averaging 41.5 PPG in their first two games and wins of the season. It must be noted that Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS in their L/2 vs the Sunbelt and looked lethargic at times vs Washington State in a loss last time out. Whiskey is just 1-7 ATS L/8 when coming off a road loss.  Im not a big Luke Fickell fan and have no problems fading his ability to inspire the Badgers at home in Camp Randall today where the Badgers are just 12-12 ATS L/24 overall.  Last season, the Eagles stunned Nebraska 45-42, another Big Ten opponent, and Im betting they compete here today. 

Play on Georgia southern to cover 

Virginia fell part late falling asleep at the proverbial wheel vs a very good JMD side last week giving up 12 points in the final quarter to lose 36-35 but Im betting on a  wide awake bounce back effort  here tonight against a Maryland side that they have covered against in their L/4 trips here in the visitors role. It must also be noted that this Virginia football program is 5-0 ATS in road openers off a loss. 

CFB home team (MARYLAND) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a sub par rushing team (100  or less RY/game) are 8-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB team (VIRGINIA) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season are 71-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Virginia to cover

Mississippi State in memory of ther late coach Mike Leach put up a huge effort winning a decisive  48-7 decision vs SE Louisiana last time out and could easily find themselves in a letdown situation this week, that will likely see regression. It must be noted that Mississippi State smashed the Arizona   by  22 points back  in 2022  (39-17)and now with revenge on board, you can bet this Wildcats side will be primed to play and with them getting points Im betting we have value. 

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSISSIPPI ST) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 58% or better, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 3-22 L/10 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - team with a horrible scoring defense last season - allowed 35 or more points/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 19-6 L/31 seasons for. a76% conversion rate. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

The Knights beat the  Northwestern Wildcats last time out  24-7, in a tilt that  saw Rutgers gain just  283 yards of offense which tells me that this team is being over rated here . Meanwhile, the Owls  came from behind to beat a pretty good Akron team last time by allowing the Zips to just 38 yards of offense in the 2nd half. Note:  The Owls program has cashed 6 of their L/7 openers  against opposition that just notched a victory.Schiano is 0-6 ATS  off a win against a conference rival as the coach of RUTGERS.

CFB home team vs. the money line (RUTGERS) - sub par team from last season - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 6-28 L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.2 . 

Play on Temple to cover

Texas almost tripped up Saban and company last season losing a 20-19 heart breaker , but now Alabama will come in here very prepared and ready to make a statement and not be ambushed again vs the Longhorns. It must be noted that Saban vs his  former assistants is 28-2 SU and 4-0 SU/ATS as a host when favored by  18 points or less. Also Texas has failed to cover 5 of their L/6 non conference away tilts and must not be over estimated in their ability to compete in this  SEC road environment. Saban is 19-9 ATS  in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of ALABAMA. Best Bet.

Alabama to cover

I know The Broncos lost their first game of the season in ugly fashion, but this this is a  much better team than their performance vs Washington last week, and now Im expecting them to have a huge bounce back effort here on the blue carpet against a over rated UFC football program. I know Central Florida can really light things up, but this Boise side ranked 11th in the nation in D, last season, and are more than capable  of slowing  down their explosive opposition .  Boise State is 21-0 SU  in its first home game of the season the past twenty-one campaigns and Im betting wont easily be defeated here tonight at home. 

UCF is 0-6 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (UCF won 56-6 vs Kent State last week)

BOISE ST is 12-3 ATS after a loss by 17 or more points since 1992.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOISE ST) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 26-6 L/31 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Boise State to cover

The Georgia State Panthers took  a seven point victory over Rhode Island last week but their defense looked atrocious as is evident by giving up 35 points on 520 total yards .  They score enough to come out with a win, but that was nota good look and will be their downfall this week, as I dont believe their offense can be as effective vs this under rated UConn side that gave a good N.Carolina State squad all they could handle in a 24-14 loss. Note: Georgia state have lost 7 of their L/11 at home SU and are not solid favs. 

UConn to cover 

Miami out gained  Texas A&M last season by a 392-264 count but couldnt punch through for a victroy, but this season, in this venue could see them turn the trick in the rematch.   It must be noted that the Aggies program has not faired well in road openers in the recent past in their L/17  as visitors to start their season  have  failed to cover 6 games  as a favorite of 3 or more points.  Miami is also  5-0 SUATS the last five as  a non-conference home dog, and are once again value line underdogs vs a over rated opponent. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.( Miami smashed Miami O last week 38-3)

Miami to cover

I know Colorado had a big game and upset TCU last week, but now Im betting the Buffs   to be in an emotional letdown situation and ripe for an upset of their own. Hey I know Nebraska just cant get over the hump no matter who their coach is , but HC Rhule deserves respect in the underdog role on the road where his teams are 9-3 ATS . ( Lost ot Minnesota 13-10 last week in a grinding affair, andIm betting they can turn this game into trench warfare again)

COLORADO is 0-7 ATS  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons. COLORADO is 9-22 ATS  in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game since 1992.

CFB road team (NEBRASKA) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 53-22 L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NEBRASKA is 7-3 straight up against COLORADO since 1992 here on the road. 

Play on Nebraska to cover

North Carolina State took a  10-point win at under rated  UConn and must be respected here at home as dogs.It must be noted that HC  Dave Doeren is  4-1 ATS at home in abattle of  of undefeated sides, and 12-0 SU  in home openers. I know the Irish mashed a couple of over rated  patsies ( Navy, Tenn State) but this is whole diff type of team they face here this afternoon . 

Hartman has struggled against the Wolfpack's 3-3-5 defense over the years- Im betting on a Rince and repeat situation. 

NOTRE DAME is 2-11 ATS  in road games after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half since 1992.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NOTRE DAME) - off a home win by 17 points or more, good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games are 21-52 ATS L/31 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on NC State to cover

Duke is 3-0 SUATS in its last three lined season home openers  and  last season were 6-1 SU and 6-0 ATS at home in HC Mike Elko’s  first season at the helm of the Blue Devils football program. Meanwhile, the Clemson Tigers vaunted D, has to replace four NFL draft picks giving  Dukes Junior quarterback Riley Leonard a chance at a big night as he looks to pad a  33 touchdown and a  3,600 yards offensive performance  last season. This is a opportunity to make a statement here for Elko and his q8 returning starters. With that said,  Im on this Blue Devils group as Im betting they  will be primed to really come out here and play hard tonight in a never say die take no prisoners gridiron battle.DUKE is 8-0 ATS  in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Duke to cover

Florida State has 18 returning starters off a 10 win campaign, while their opponents the LSU Tigers were hit hard by the NFL draft losing 10 starters from last seasons group. It must also be noted that the Tigers have been virtual pussy cats on the road failing to cover 6 of their L/8 overall while the Seminoles are 9-0-2 ATS in their L/11 games played in Orlando and are 7-1 SU L/8 games in this series and according to my power rankings matchup well here vs the young men from the Bayou. LSU has lost its last 3 season openers and I would not be surprised if they register another one here as the Seminoles vaunted ground game does enough to get through a tough Tigers run D. 

Play on Florida State to cover

OSU finished last season on a  7-0 ATS run and enter this season with momentum while their opponents San Jose State finished their campaign on an  exact polar opposite 0-7 ATS run and than lost their opener this season to USC by a 56-28 count. SJU is just 1-26 SU in their L/27 line road games vs PAC 12 opponents and look to once again be cannon fodder in this tilt vs what is a far superior side.

OREGON ST is 8-1 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +19.9.

Play on Oregon State to cover  

This year will mark the fourth straight  season that Northwestern begins against a Big Ten opponent, having beaten Nebraska last year, fallen to Michigan State in 2021 and crushing  Maryland in 2020. Northwestern is on a two-game winning streak against Rutgers dating back to 2018.  Rutgers has averaged only 22 points per game vs. NU in 3 all time events, and Im betting they have problems scoring again in a game I have pegged to be a 1 score event giving us value with the TD + underdog line. 

Schiano is 3-11 ATS  in home games against conference opponents as the coach of RUTGERS.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NORTHWESTERN) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season are 59-26 ATS L/31 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (RUTGERS) - sub par team from last season - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 5-28 L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Northwestern to cover

 UCLA no longer has QB Dorian Thomas-Robinson  but with 16  starters returning for the Bruins they should be just fine. With  former Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo in the fold  for the Bruins some new looks could really make a the Bruins a dark-horse candidate this both in the PAc 12 and and the nation. Kelly has cashed his last 3 home openers and will once again be primed to juice an opponent, especially one traveling from east to west . Note: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover 8 of their L/12 as DD dogs.  New CC HC Tim Beck has his hands full, in a game that Im betting ends in a conclusive UCLA win and cover

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCLA) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry are 94-45 ATS L/31 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UCLA Bruins to cover

NC Coach Mack Brown  is 26-4 SU in season openers, including winning 18 of his L/19. and with 18 starters back and top tier QB at the helm in Drake Maye and you have  situation where the  Heels are being under rated vs the over hyped  Heisman hopeful QB Caleb Williams and company of South Carolina . With revenge on board for a ugly 38-21 loss back in 2021 , Mack will be primed to have his  team ready out of the gate again this season. Note: The Gamecocks have lost 5 of their L/6 vs the ACC, while the Heels are a perfect 5-0 vs sides from the SEC as fav of 4 points or less like they are here today. 

North Carolina to cover

Akron lost alot of close games last season, but now with improved running game, and the talented DJ Irons back at QB, they could find a way to make the gap small enough to ramp up more wins and more importantly covers and be even  more competitive from a W/L perspective. 

Temple is still not back to their top programs they had  12 years ago, and Im projecting no more than a 4 wins this season and in their current form do not look capable of covering this line as favs. 

 CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in non-conference games are 49-20 L/31 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors, 

Play on Akron to cover

NIU went 3-9 last season, but five of the losses were by eight points or fewer. The 2021 team went 7-2 in games decided by eight points or less. Last year an array of injuries really gutted them and 2021 they were healthy. This program is built to be tough as nails, and out of the gate they are fairly healthy and deserve respect here as underdogs. The dogs are not  a deep team but the starting 22 are projected to be gridiron  take no prisoners war lords. Im betting Boston College has their hands full here today. 

N ILLINOIS is 53-26 ATS  as a road underdog since 1992. Hammock is 12-4 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of N ILLINOIS.

CFB road team vs. the money line (N ILLINOIS) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 26-10 L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Northern Illinois to over 

Central Michigan returns nine starters on defense .After ranking top-50 nationally in EPA/Rush Allowed and Defensive Line Yards and  they should be tough to work against once again. Michigan State returns four starters on the offensive line, but its line ranked 122nd in Offensive Line Yards and 116th in Stuff Rate allowed so scoring and moving the chains could easily be problem here tonight against a formidable defense. Meanwhile, Central Michigan has to replace their starting QB and running back from last season, and they also could find the sledding tough here early this season. The Spartans return seven starters on defense and the rest of the class looks to be tough as nails, Im seeing this being their strength this season. All in all Im projecting a fairly low scoring event with this Total not being eclipsed.

CFB  teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (C.MICH/MICHIGAN ST) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses are 42-10 UNDER L/31 seasons with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored. 

Play under 

NC Carolinas defense was elite last season, and will once again come in with some of the best defensive players in all of college football especially at the linebacker position ie Payton Wilson. Last years offensive coordinator  Beck left NC for Coastal Carolina, so the offense will Im betting be a work in progress  out of the gate against a strong UConn defense. Note: NC Star quarterback Devin Leary transferred to Kentucky so as I said, things will be different, and will take time to jell. On the flipside, the Huskies will once again lean on their running game, behind new QB Joe Fagnano and that will eat up alot of clock time in what should be a grinding early season affair that gives the edge to the defenses and not the offenses. 

NC STATE is 22-6 UNDER when playing on a Thursday since 1992 with a combined average score 44.9 ppg scored. 

CFB team against the total (UCONN/NC STATE) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 84-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under 

Hawaii covered 6 of their L/7 games last season and enter here with momentum vs a Vanderbilt program that despite of being hefty favorites , may not warrant such a backing from the lines-makers .  The last 4 times Vandy has been installed as non conference favs they failed each time, and Im betting that will be the case again vs a Rainbow Warriors side that has redemption in mind after an ugly 63-10 opening day  loss to  the Commodores last season. 

VANDERBILT is 0-7 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

CFB  home team vs. the money line (VANDERBILT) - sub par team from last season - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 4-28 L/10 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate. 

Play on Hawaii to cover

The Bobcats completed the 2022 season with a 10-4 record, going 7-1 in the MAC conference play, that was a after a slow start--  they won  seven of their final eight games and deserve respect here as underdogs with momentum on their sides. With top tier QB  Kurtis Rourke back to 100% healthy after a late season injury the Bobcats are a side to be feared. The Aztecs will be formidable at home behind what is expected be another strong defensive group, but its their offense that remains less than formidable , and could easily find the sledding tough against a D, that improved significantly as last season progressed. Im expecting a close game but taking the points here looks to be the most  advantageous investment option. 

Play on Ohio to cover

The UTEP Miners have four returning all-stars with the interior loaded with tough veterans to go along with Steven Hubbard at left tackle. they were good last season in protection mode and really helped the running game progress and Im betting they will be even better this season. This is a hard hitting squad thats not easy to play against and must be respected on a short line vs a Jacksonville State side that is new to the FBS. Meanwhile, Jacksonville State might be primed to get a win out of the gate here, but with what my projections estimate is a sub par D, that will probably not come here today.

CFB home team vs. the money line (JACKSONVILLE ST) - team with a horrible scoring defense last season - allowed 35 or more points/game, between two teams with 8 or more offensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are just 3-22 L/31 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UTEP to cover

Navy's new HC and  former defensive coordinator,Brian Newberry brings respect to the sidelines, after Ken Niuamatolos departure after 16 seasons at the helm of this scholastic gridiron program. I know Notre Dame is the bigger and better brand, but Middies must not be disrespected here as underdogs in this long time series rivalry. Note: The Irish are only 13-27 ATS at home or on a neutral field vs a military college, and military schools of 20+ or more point dogs have been a bankroll expanding cash cow for their backers producing at a positive 83-39-3 ATS clip the L/43 seasons. With 18 returning starters in the lineup Navy will be well prepared to stay within this number here in Ireland this Saturday. 

Play on Navy to cover

TCU enters this game hitting on all cylinders offensively scoring an average 47 points per game in their L/3 trips to to gridiron. Meanwhile, somethings not right defensively with Georgia as they have now allowed 71 points and 1,013 yards in its last two tilts. Also after finding a way to barely get by Ohio State last time out in miraculous fashion, Im betting they are in a huge emotional letdown situation against a TCU side that is expected to lose and play with alot less pressure than their opponents  , thus giving us a hefty cushion on what my projections estimate is a slightly bloated line. Note: The L/4 teams that made it back to the College Football championship game, are 0-4 /SU/ATS. Also .750 or better DD  bowl pups entering off a SU underdog win are 5-0 ATS  dating back to the 2008 season .Add to that  bowl teams taking 13 points or more on the opening line are 7-0 ATS going against .900 plus win % sides dating back to the 2013 campaign.

Dykes is 31-16 ATS in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. Favorites in the Championship game have failed to cover 5 of the L/8 times and are 0-2 SU/ATS vs non undefeated opposition like TCU. 

Take the points with TCU 

Penn State finished their season playing a top tier brand of football winning their L/4 games . This Nitanny Lions football  program  is as streaky as they come and when their hot their hot and hard to stop. Note:  PSU's is  16-3 SU and 17-1 ATS when coming off 

 two or more  SU/ATS victories which is the case here going up against Utah of the Pc 12. Franklin is also  8-0 ATS  after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival as the coach of PENN ST.Franklin is 13-1 ATS  off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals as the coach of PENN ST.

Utes are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.

Utes are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

CFB teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PENN ST) - after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 28-6 L/40 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Penn State to cover 

Im betting USC is in emotional letdown situation after blowing an opportunity to be in the National Championship play off series by losing to Utah in their PAC 12 finale. Meanwhile, Tulane has looked better and better each week this season and deserve respect here to pull of the upset. Bowl teams with the Heisman Trophy winner like USC ( QB  Caleb Williams) are  0-8 SUATS off SU/ATS loss dating back since 1980. .TULANE is 7-1 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.Fritz is 12-3 ATS   versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25  or more rushing yards/carry as the coach of TULANE.

Play on Tulane to cover 

I saw and listened the reaction of Ohio State players and the coaching staff after their loss to Michigan, and that defeat Im betting put a fire under their proverbial behinds  of this team and they  will now be ready for a huge redemption vs a top tier opponent Georgia. OHIO ST is 12-2 ATS  in road games off a home loss since 1992. Day is 6-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of OHIO ST. It must be noted  Ohio State was ranked ahead of Georgia when the season began and are being under rated here.

OHIO ST is 21-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

CFB Teams like Georgia who were victorious  and covered their conference title tilt are 0-10 SU L/14 seasons against opposition coming off a SU loss as a chalk like Ohio State. 

Play on Ohio State to cover 

Gator Bowl - TIAA Bank Field - Jacksonville, FL

Biggest issue with the Fighting Irish is their  No. 129 in Red Zone Defense . Im betting S.Carolina will score above their season average because of this and that their own D will hold the  fort here. Note: HC Beamer  of the Gamecocks has recorded a  6-1 ATS record vs. non-conference opposition  and  have cashed 4 SU underdog wins this season and Im betting rings the bell again here and cashes a ticket for us. 

S CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games.

Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in December. Notre Dame is 7-15 SUATS in its last 17 bowl games.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NOTRE DAME) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with an inexperienced QB as starter are 91-150 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on South Carolina to cover 

 Pittsburgh ,  ended their season in top form winning four consecutive tilts to close the campaign,  keyed by a defense  that allowed just 14.5 PPG during that top tier span. The Panthers matchup well vs a UCLA side that has been inconsistent this season despite of alot of pundits  backing them for bigger in better things since before this season began. Today /Im betting the superior D, which Pittsburgh pwns  will get the job done and get us the cover. Note: Pac-12 Bowl sides like  UCLA that  allow more than 25 PPG  are 0-14 ATS the last 14 opportunities. 

UCLA is 11-24 ATS   in road games after a bye week since 1992. Narduzzi is 11-3 ATS  in road games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game as the coach of PITTSBURGH.

Bruins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.Bruins are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.Bruins are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (PITTSBURGH) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game are 77-37 ATS L10/ seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Duke's Mayo Bowl - Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC

My Bowl matchup power rankings suggest like the linesmakers do,  that these sides are evenly matched but why I like the NC State in a close game is  because NC State   has Christopher Dunn, who won the Lou Groza Award for the nation’s best kicker on their side of the filed. Advantage NC State.

Terps head Terrapin Locksley is  3-39 SU  vs a side with a better record.

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (NC STATE) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/game), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 24-2 L/30 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NC State to cover 

The Longhorns had a very good season and  lost only four games  with two defeats coming against top 10 programs. Today against a suspect Huskies D, Im betting the Longhorns will dominate . Yes, there are some top running backs not playing for the Texas today but with the talented Jonathan Brooks waiting for his chance to impress the Longhorns will be fine.

Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games. Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Pac-12.

WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS  in road games after out-gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.Huskies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12.Pac-12 Bowl teams like Washington  that allow  25 or more  PPG are  0-14 ATS in their L/14 bowl appearances.

Play on Texas to cover 

Syracuse  was ranked  5th in the nation in Team Defense despite of a up and down season and are being disrespected here by the public in their ability to be competitive. Both sides, feature strong RBs, and Im betting on a grinding affair that is much closer then the public and  lines-makers expect.

Babers is 9-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game as the coach of SYRACUSE.

Orange are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.

Syracuse is 13-3-1 SU and 13-4 ATS Bowl games.Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.

Play on Syracuse to cover 

Texas Bowl - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

Tech won its last three games of the regular season when quarterback Tyler Shough returned to the starting lineup , and Ole Miss lost their L/3 games. But despite of this I still like what my power ranking suggest is the superior side. Note: Bowl sides like Texas Tech  coming in on 3-0 SUATS  run are just   9-27 SU and 8-28 ATS when going against  an opposing side  coming off a SU favorite loss like Ole Miss is losing their finale to Mississippi State 24-22. as 2 point chalk .Kiffin is 7-0 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite in all games he has coached since 1992. TEXAS TECH is 1-8 ATS  after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Ole Miss to cover 

Liberty Bowl - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

I know Arkansas is missing quite few players from their regular roster, but this is still a deep SEC side that played alot of formidable teams this season and looked good for the most part and Sam Pittman will have them ready compete . Meanwhile, Kansas despite of having their star QB Daniels back in the lineup, are a side that is atrocious defensively, and Im betting Arkansas takes advantage of their porous so called stopping units. Key here is the Jayhawks D,  that allows an average of 356 ppg and Im betting it gets smashed.  I know everyone loves a dog , especially one with an explosive offense but like said, the Kansas D is their Achilles heal. 

CFB team (ARKANSAS) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or better YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 11-40 ATS L/10 seasons for a  go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Arkansas to cover 

 QB Grayson McCall  has grabbed Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year honors three times in his top tier Collegiate career and he holds  numerous QB records at Coastal Carolina. This will be his last game in Coastal Carolina uniform and Im betting he will be primed to perform before entering the transfer portal. I know the Chanticleer's were beat up on their two final game sof the season, by two strong opponents James Madison and Troy, which abruptly ended a 9-1 run, but Im betting those tilts will have them prepared to take on a explosive East Carolina offense,  but an  inconsistent  group that can struggle defensively. (East Carolina ended their season allowing 42 and 46 points respectively to Houston and Temple. COASTAL CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS   vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 275 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (COASTAL CAROLINA) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game are 76-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover 

Utah State (6-6) won five of its last seven regular-season games to qualify for a Bowl appearance. It was a struggle at times this season, but they must not be underestimated in their ability to cover vs the Memphis Tigers. Remember this is a program that won 11 games last season.  The Aggies defeated three teams that earned bowl invitations this season: UConn, Air Force and San Jose State. and own  an over 1,000-yard rusher and nine all-conference-type players. 

MWC Bowl sides  5-0 SUATS vs. AAC opposition. 

NCAAF  Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH ST) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 76-38 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play on Utah State to cover 

Camellia Bowl - Cramton Bowl - Montgomery, AL

Georgia Southerns  offense behind QB Vantrease can be explosive but his propensity to throw interceptions (15 this season) is something that must be considered detrimental. Meanwhile,  quarterback Cole Snyder, a  transfer from Rutgers started all 12 games in the regular season for Buffalo; he completed 59.2% of his passes for 2,765 yards, along with 17 touchdowns and eight picks and must not be underestimated in his ability to play at top level , especially against a  Eagles D  that  rank 124th in defensive SP+. Comparing records isolated key trends that directly effected my perceptions of this matchup as Buffalo was 5-1 ATS as Bowl teams this season , while GSU 0-5/SU 1-4 ATS against bowl sides. 

Bulls are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (BUFFALO) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game.are 76-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Play on Buffalo to cover 

Bowling green is over rated as is evident by ranking 105th in offense and 106th in the nation on Defense. Meanwhile, New Mexico State under Jerry Kill has impressed me with his upgrading of this team, and how well they finished the season. Considering Kill has had success against MAC sides winning 20- of 27 attempts in his career SU vs this conference including an 18-2 SU mark vs sub .500 sides like Bowling Green. With that said  it will be an easy decision o take the points here with a side this very hungry program. 

Play on New Mexico State to cover

Gasparilla Bowl - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL

When Wake Forest takes to the gridiron and top gun QB Hartman is leading the offense you can almost expect offensive fire works from them, even against the best of defenses. They enter this game, having scored 34, 45, 31 points respectively in 3 straight  and even against a staunch Missouri D, they have the ability to rock the house with a boatload full of points. On the flipisde the Demon Deacons own a sometimes porous D, that has allowed more than 31 ppg on the road this season. Meanwhile, Missouri has played their best D, at home , but on the road their numbers surge to an average of 31.4 ppg. Tonight Im betting the Deacons to get into the 30s offensively and for Missouri to have to be aggressive and also do some damage, against a D, that will not be as daunting as those they faced in the SEC. 

Drinkwitz is 6-0 OVER  after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better as the coach of MISSOURI.

Clawson is 8-1 OVER after allowing 375 or more passing yards in their last game as the coach of WAKE FOREST with the average combined score clicking in at 65.8 ppg.

Play OVER

Air Force behind their triple option offense  is ranked  No. 1 in the nation  in Time of Possession and Im betting they burn plenty of clock time and slow down Baylors offensive prowess because of breaking up their flow.  The Fly boys are also No. 1 team in the nation in Overall Defense and must not be disrespected in their ability to slow down a strong Baylor attack… The Falcons have also had great success in Bowl games cashing  10 of their   last 13 bowl games.  With Big 12 sides just 0-3 L/3 vs Military schools and Baylor having lost  5 of their L/7 here at this venue SU its an easy decision to grab the points with the under rated underdog. 

Calhoun is 29-11 ATS  when the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of AIR FORCE

NFL Neutral field underdogs (AIR FORCE) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game are 75-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Play on Air Force to cover 

New Orleans Bowl - Caesars Superdome - New Orleans, LA

Western Kentuckys explosive big play offense can do damage against the best of Defenses. Im usually a proponent of strong defenses in Bowl games, but like I said the Hilltoppers can make strong Ds like South /Alabama owns  look very average as the football program has registered  350 or more yards  of offense in 27 straight games.

S ALABAMA is 5-15 ATS L/20  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record .

W KENTUCKY is 21-9 ATS L/30 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. W KENTUCKY is 32-13 ATS L/45 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game. Helton is 15-6 ATS  in road games in games played on turf as the coach of W KENTUCKY.

Western Kentucky is 3-0 SU/ATS in bowl games vs. .666  or better opposition and are a bankroll expanding 13-2 ATS as a dog vs. Sun Belt foes and 11-3 ITS against Bowl sides since last season.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 

Boca Raton Bowl - FAU Stadium - Boca Raton, FL

Liberty Im betting is being under estimated here in their abilities to pick up a straight up win and more importantly a cover even though they finished a down not as the team looked disappointed that they may lose their coach Freeze to a power 5 team, that dis materialize and now Im betting they will be ready to play.LIBERTY is 9-1 ATS  as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.LIBERTY is 37-19 ATS   in non-conference games .Liberty is 3-0 SU against  MAC sides  L/3 seasons.  Freeze is 9-1 ATS   after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Toledo is 3-9 ATS in bowl games since 2002,Candle is 0-6 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of TOLEDO.

 MAC Bowl sides like Toledo are  just 6-28 SU and 8-25-1 ATS vs. opponents like Liberty  coming off a loss. 

Play on Liberty to cover 

Myrtle Beach Bowl - Brooks Stadium - Conway, SC

The   Uconn Huskies played well this season and got  bowl eligibility under first year HC Mora who has got this group to play disciplined tough football. It must be noted that first year HC s have cashed 10 of their L14 Bowls as  double-digit dogs  .  Here today, Im betting UConn stays fairly competitive vs the lowly No. 127 in the nation Red Zone Offense. 

CONNECTICUT is 19-6 ATS  after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games.  Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Thundering Herd are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December. 

Play on UConn to cover 

Frisco Bowl - Toyota Stadium - Frisco, TX

North Texas is getting to many points here according to my projections. Note: Conference title game losers  like North Texas as DD underdogs have cashed 8 of their L/10 opportunities. Also … CUSA Bowl sides are a perfect  5-0 ATS off a Double digit  defeat when going against. MWC opposition. NORTH TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons. Bennett is 12-4 ATS  as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of NORTH TEXAS.

 Boise State also lost their conference championship game to Fresno State- teams like this that lost their conference title tilt are 2-8 ATS in their Bowl appearances. 

key matchup stat:NORTH TEXAS is 9-2 ATS vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking at +2.7. 

Play on North Texas to cover 

New Mexico Bowl - University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM

I was surprised to see SMU as  favs in this game vs BYU even though  they will play without star RB Lopini Kotoa as there are viable alternatives in that position on this team looking to make a statement  The Mustangs enter this game  0-5 ATS as favs and  0-3 SU all-time in this series.  . Considering this is  Mustangs’ HC Rhett Lashlee’s first  ever bowl game , his lack  experience could easily work against him here, and I expect BYU to pound their way to cover   .SMU is 4-15 L/19 ATS (in road games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry . SMU is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less (which was the case last time out winning by 34-31 count vs Memphis.Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. INDEP.SMU is 2-11 ATS   in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games .

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (SMU) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences have lost  17 of L/27 opportunities SU. 

Play on BYU to cover

LendingTree Bowl - Hancock Whitney Stadium - Mobile, AL

  Southern Miss defense can stop run games cold as is evident by having limited the opposition to fewer than 150 rushing yards on average per game this season.That makes me believe Rice despite of throwing more than their share of picks this season will be forced to air the ball out, which will see them also score above the expected output, and see some extra points go up on the board against them because of their atrocious turnover ratios. On the flipside,  Frank Gore Jr., who ran for  1,000 plus rushing yards this season for Southern Miss should have a field day on the ground vs a Owls  side that struggles against ground attacks  ranking  91st against the run, allowing 166.5 rushing yards per game. Southern Miss also has alot of turnovers (22) so some unexpected offense could easily be stymied but go the other way. Sloppy game expected and more points than the lines-makers are projecting to go on the board. 

Over is 4-0 in Owls last 4 vs. S-Belt.

RICE is 8-0 OVER  in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 62.9 ppg scored. Rices L/24 games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 58.4 ppg scored.

Over is 5-1 in Golden Eagles last 6 non-conference games.

Over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

Play OVER

Cure Bowl - Exploria Stadium - Orlando, FL

These two teams enter this Bowl tilt on 10-game win streaks . There is a difference here though between both sides and that comes on defense.Troy’s defense has held  the  seven bowl teams they played to 17 PPG/326  total YPG on average . Meanwhile,UTSA  has had  defensive problems  against  Bowl sides this season allowing,  an average of 29 PPG/409 total YPG on average. There is on old adage that says defense wins big games but offense gets you to those big games. This was never truer here in this matchup as UTSA has shown more offensive prowess than the Trojans, but the Trojans defense is superior according to the numbers and its obvious how tenacious their D is if you have watched any of their games. 

Troy is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS against Bowl teams this season and have won their L/4 appearances. Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in December.

TROY is 7-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.

UTSA has never won a Bowl game and are 0-3 SU . 

Play on Troy to cover 

SEC Championship Game - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

This total has steamed up by almost 5 points since opening and now that it's been over done Ill come back and take a contrarian stance and hit the under offering. 

Georgia has allowed 12.4 ppg on the road this season.The Dawgs have allowed 20 or less points in their L/7 games.( 10, 0, 20, 13, 19, 6, 14) Im betting Georgia will not allow more than 17 this week, while my own projections estimate a 31 point offensive output . 

GEORGIA is 6-0 UNDER when they score 29 to 35 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 42.8 ppg scored.

Kelly is 16-6 UNDER  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more  yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 49.9 ppg scored. 

GEORGIA is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.4 ppg scored.

CFB  Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (LSU) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 35-8 UNDER L/30 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 43 ppg scored.

CFB  team against the total (GEORGIA) - outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games are 44-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate with a combined average of 46.5 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

MW Championship Game

Boise State took out Fresno State 40-20 earlier this season, and Im betting the Bulldogs will not have a big enough turn around to get the revenge win in the rematch. Boise is 11-1 SU L/12 at home this series and have won 5 of 6 home games . Home field advantage will prevail once again.

BOISE ST is 33-17 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. Tedford is 14-28 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1992.

 CFB home team vs. the money line (BOISE ST) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 29-2 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18.7. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FRESNO ST) - revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more, off 3 straight wins against conference rivals are 13-38 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boise State to cover 

From time to time I will lay a little lumber with a certain gridiron moneyline opportunity, and Tulane is my choice here this week .Home favorites vs. the money line (TULANE) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a top-level team (80%)or better  playing a team with a winning record are 33-1 L/5 seasons.  Tulane has proved to me their the real deal after last weeks road victory vs Cincinnati. I know UCF is a top tier side, and beat Tulane the last time they visited here a few weeks ago 38-31. But now Im betting on a revenge scenario bounce back effort by the  Green Wave in this championship game to be golden. 

Play on Tulane to win 

Ive made Troy -10 advantage favs here according to my own personal projection sheets. Thus laying this number makes for a viable wager. TROY is 7-1 ATS   against conference opponents this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.3 ppg. 

Note: Coastal Carolina is expected to play without  starting QB Grayson McCall. His replacement QB Jarrett Guest has not  shown much going  18-of-42 (42.9%) for 270 yards, 1 TD and 4 INTs in conference and here vs an extremely strong Trojans D, more struggles should be expected.

CFB home team (TROY) - off a road blowout win by 28 points or more, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are 30-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Troy to cover 

Since these teams have met earlier this season, the Utes D has become more physical and has come together and currently showing alot of chemistry. Im betting the Utes physicality and grit will be the difference maker in the rematch.Entering the Pac-12 Championship game, Utah leads the Pac-12 in third down and fourth down defense, first downs defense, passing defense, rushing defense, scoring defense, total defense and time of possession.  

It must be noted that on the season the Utes have the PPG differential advantage , winning by +19.3 as  compared to USC’s +16.2 ppg diff average. •    The Utes are averaging 39.4 points per game, ranking 10th nationally.

Utah is the only team in the Pac-12 that ranks in the top-20 nationally in both scoring offense and defense, ranking 10th and 19th.    In the last three games, Utah has been averaging 67.3 yards per scoring drive while averaging 51.4 in the previous nine games.  Utah is averaging 26.4 first downs per game while holding opponents to 15.5, ranking fourth in first down offense and 11th in first downs defense in the FBS.  

Note:Extending plays is Utah's specialty this season, ranking eighth in the FBS in third down conversions (.503)Utah ranks fifth in both sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed per game in the country.

UTAH is 22-10 ATS L/32  in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better. )  UTAH is 22-7 ATS  after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.

USC is 7-18 ATS in December games since 1992.

CFB  team (USC) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 11-39 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB  team (UTAH) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more  YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 34-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Utah to cover

C-USA Championship Game

North Texas has allowed 17 or less points in 3 of their L/4 games and are capable of staling the Roadrunners offense. Meanwhile, UTSA has allowed 7 points exact in two of their L/3. With this being a championship game, Im betting the action will not be as wide open as reg season action, and a more chess like game will be played. Im not saying is will be a defensive sleeper, but I am betting the final score will not top this steamed up offering. 

UTSA is 7-0 UNDER   sub par  defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 49.8 ppg scored.

CFB  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (UTSA) - off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season are 25-3 UNDER L/31 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 62.4 ppg. 

Play UNDER

 App State enters this game as a weak favorite in my betting opinion as their 2-7 ATS record in lined games would indicate as well as a ugly  1-7 ATS record  as a chalk. The Mounties have also failed to cover 4 straight and despite of a boatload full of talent seem like their missing decent chemistry.  On the flip-side we  have to remember that the home side needs a victory here to garner a Bowl invite so they will leave it on the field today .APPALACHIAN ST is 1-9 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.Clark is 11-21 ATS  as a favorite as the coach of APPALACHIAN ST. G Southern is 4-0 ATS L/4 home finales.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover 

Iowa State takes on  a perfect 10-0 TCU side that is off a late FG win in a grueling tilt vs Baylor last time out and could easily find themselves in a letdown situation this Saturday. Add to that Iowa State despite of not being Bowl eligible have played much better down the stretch than earlier in the season and have out yarded their L/5 opponents . This could easily be the Cyclones biggest and most important game of the season from a personal perspective and I expect we see them leave everything on the field versus a side easily looking ahead to their upcoming Big 12 championship game. 

Iowa State has covered 6 straight aas conference road pups and are 3-0 ATS L/3 in this series as underdogs. 

Campbell is 15-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of IOWA ST.

CFB road team (IOWA ST) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry are 179-106 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa State to cover