It never easy playing the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium as was evident when Michigan in 2017 and Ohio State in 2018 visited and  were subsequently upset. It must be noted that Penn State barely survived its last trip to Iowa City in 2017. It took a Trace McSorley to Juwan Johnson touchdown pass on the final play of the game to squeak out a 21-19 victory. Im betting on another close game here and for the Hawkeyes to get us the cover.

Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.Hawkeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.Hawkeyes are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games on fieldturf.

Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.

Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Play on Iowa to cover 

Cincinnati is getting alot of respect here as they are being favored on the road vs the Houston Cougars and rightly so. 

Defensively, the Cougars are still a work in progress after a horrendous stat line last season, and offensively they now have to work with a new QB as starter D'Eriq King is out for season ( Redshirt ). Against this type of over powering Bearcats D, this will be a huge problem for them today. Im betting on Cincinnati putting a load of points on the board vs a swiss cheese defence, while the Cougars struggle to score against the Bearcats top tier stop units.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after having won 4 out of their last 5 games are 9-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs (HOUSTON) - excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 7-26 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cincinnati Bearcats to cover 

Washington State enters this game off two straight losses, but don't be fooled by their current status, as this well coached team behind their air raid offence can do a lot of damage when its wide awake and primed to perform. I know that Arizona State is now ranked (18th) in the nation, with a 4-1 record, but Im betting their over rated. It must also be noted Herm Edwards is just 5-12 ATS as a favourite while Mike Leach is 7-2 ATS on the road off two losses and a perfect 4-0 ATS off two losses period and more than capable of bouncing back. 

WASHINGTON ST is 13-3 ATS in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season.Leach is 22-9 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game as the coach of WASHINGTON ST.

CFB road team (WASHINGTON ST) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 63-29 ATS L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington State to cover 

Im betting on a hard nosed  defensive battle  here today as Michigan State’s No. 6 overall ranked defense goes against undefeated  Wisconsin’s No. 1 overall ranked defense in a game that Im betting will be closely contested and brutal. It must be noted that when the linesmakers expect a low scoring away game when Mich state plays  - Dantonio is 9-1 ATS  in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of MICHIGAN ST.

MSU  is  9-2 ATS as Big Ten dogs versus an undefeated opposition, and 8-2 ATS as a conference road dog of 13 points or less. 

WISCONSIN is 0-6 ATS after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

CFB team (WISCONSIN) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team ( 80% or better ) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 14-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan State to cover 

  Charlie Strong and USF really need this game  here  and Im betting they come up with a big effort vs a banged up BYU side, with their starting QB Zach Wilson on the sidelines with a thumb injury and  their top RB Tyson Wiliqms gone for the season  with a ACL . Even without these top tier guys on offence the Mormons have really struggled to move the ball consistently as they are the  3rd worst team in the nation in Time Of Possession this season. Combination of Charlie Strong desperation and the Cougars diminished  key roster positions, make the home dogs a viable wagering opportunity here. 

Note: BYU is off a bye week but in the past that has not been a favourable situation for their betting backers as they are 2-11 ATS L/13 with rest. 

Play on South Florida to cover 

Duke (16th) has the second best defensive efficiency in the ACC, , behind Clemson (2nd). Today against a struggling GTEch offence averaging just 15.2 ppg and 8 points per game on the road, should once again have a stellar day. Im betting on Duke establishing the run early and to pound away all day in  clock burning fashion, in a tilt I hav pegged to stay on the low side of the total. 

My projections power rankings suggest Duke will hold GTech to less than 4.5 ypp. GEORGIA TECH is 20-3 UNDER when they gain 4 to 4.5 total yards per play with a combined average of 31.7 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

 The Rutgers  Scarlet Knights are hands down the worst team in the Big 10, a team that have scored just 23 points in its last four games combined. Meanwhile, Indiana did not look out of place vs Ohio State and  looked good vs Michigan States top tier D, and  has blown out UConn and Eastern Illinois and played well against a under rated  Ball State side,  winning  by a a 34-24 and according to my projections are strong smash down chalk in this spot vs a team they very much match up well against. Indiana (3-2, 0-2 Big Ten) has lost four straight conference games, and now needs three more wins to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2016 and will be fully focused here to get the victory and make it convincing. 

Note:Rutgers has lost 10 straight true road games, since Oct. 14, 2017. This season has been equally unkind with two losses by the combined score of 82-0.

RUTGERS is 4-14 ATS  as a road underdog of 21.5 to 28 points since 1992 with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under -32 ppg.

Play on the Indiana Hoosiers to cover 

 Western Michigan is an experienced side, but their undisciplined penalty taking is a red flag for me. Their one of the worst team in the nation in penalties, and shooting themselves in the proverbial foot is not out of the question.  Note:MIAMI OHIO is 7-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons. 

 Meanwhile, Miami O has is a well coached team that has been very competitive in MAC action of late cashing 8 of their L/9 opportunities vs conference opposition. and off a upset win vs the Buffalo Bulls two weeks ago. Now well rested of their bye week,Im betting on them hanging tough here again vs an explosive side.Note: Martin is 6-0 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog as the coach of MIAMI OHIO . 

Lester is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better as the coach of W MICHIGAN. 

Miami O to cover

 No. 20 Virginia prepare to go Helmut to helmut  in Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens as the Cavaliers visit the Miami Hurricanes in Friday night ACC action. Last week the Canes came out flat against VTech and were down 28 -0 at the half, before mounting a furious comeback, but still lost 42-35. I know the recency bias of that loss and the inconsistencies of the Canes this season may not make this a popular pick, but from a matchup perspective my projections tell a different story. I know the Cavs are a well coached team, and they don;t make a lot of mistakes, but they have to this point in the season, been way over rated for my liking and after today I expect the pundits will have a less enthusiastic  respect for them. 

CFB Home favorites (MIAMI) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games . are 23-3 ATS L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami Fl to cover 

[QB] 09/18/2019 - Collin Hill is out for season ( ACL )

New Mexico enters this tilt with a  2-3  record  , while Colorado State is 1-5 with the  win coming  over a  FCS  opponent in Western Illinois that is 0-5 on the season.  Both teams still have meetings with No. 14 Boise State still to come, so for each team, the path to six wins and bowl eligibility means this contest is  extremely  important and will be a hard fought event which makes getting points golden in my betting opinion. 

COLORADO ST is 0-7 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less  yards per return over the last 3 seasons. COLORADO ST is 2-10 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 season.

CFB team (NEW MEXICO) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 79-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Mexico to cover 

Miami was upset last week by Vtech by a 42-35 count, which showed off some of the Canes defensive inefficiencies and of course their ability to click on offense. It must be noted that this  MIAMI football program in their L/18 tilts when off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more points have seen a combined average of 49.3 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, Virginia continues to be efficient but not flashy and are capable of putting points on the board, as their 32.2 ppg offensive average would indicate. Note: MIAMI in their L/12 games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last three seasons has seen a combined average of 47.5 ppg scored. This season Miami has also averaged 38.3 ppg off offence in 3 homes games, and Im betting they do some damage here again in a game I have pegged to go over the total based on my mathematical projections.

Virginia's HC Mendenhall is 30-15 OVER after having won 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average score of 58.7 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

 ULMonroe is battle tested after taking on Iowa State, Memphis , and Florida State this season. They did not look out of place in those tilts, behind a high powered offence, and tonight against Texas State Im betting we see just how explosive they can be vs a good , but not quite ready for prime time Texas State D. Yes, Texas State has won two in a row and their last one coming against FCS Nicholls state 24-3 and the win previous to that was a ugly 37-34 win vs Georgia State. which was less than impressive Note: Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.

Warhawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Bobcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Bobcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.

Play on UL Monroe to cover 

Look for LA Lafayette to control time of possession and bleed the clock via a top tier rush attack and to subsequently shock an explosive App State team.

LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 ATS  in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons. LA LAFAYETTE is 17-3 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games

CFB  road team (APPALACHIAN ST) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 39-80 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

UL Lafayette to cover 

The Washington Huskies were sky-high after taking out the  USC Trojans  last time out in a game they had circled on their calendars for a while, and now Im betting they are in a letdown spot vs a Stanford side that is slowly getting better as the season progresses and that held an explosive Oregon team to a season low 320 yards of offence in late September. It must be noted that the sled dogs  have lost five straight times as visitors in this series, and are bankroll depleting 0-11 ATS after playing USC, as well as  1-5 ATS as Pac-12 road favs. 

Take the points with Stanford to cover 

Pittsburgh upset a very good UCF team a couple of weeks ago, and were in a letdown spot last week, and barely got by Delaware by a 17-14 count. Now refreshed and ready to go, Pittsburgh behind a top tier D, that has limited 3 of their L/4 opponents under their season offensive average look like viable bets here as underdogs vs a team that they have beaten 3 straight times a visitors .

Duke is a very good team but the football program has not thrived in this role going  1-11 ATS as a home favorite under 7 points  and they have failed to cover five in a row as ACC chalk off a SU underdog winner ( Duke took out VTech last week by DDs as road dogs)

PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS  after a game where they forced no turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Road underdogs (PITTSBURGH) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 100-52 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 52-22 ATS L/27 season for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Pittsburgh Panthers to cover 

Last week Ohio State obliterated Nebraska on their own home field by a score of 48-7. It was an absolutely dominating performance. Now because of that tilt, and how powerful the Buckeyes have looked so far this season, we are getting a recency bias line to bet into with the visiting underdog Michigan State. I myself am of the opinion that this is one of the better Michigan State teams coach Dantonio has put on the field in a while and with a top 10 scoring defense and a No. 4 overall defense taking points here is a golden opportunity for positive cash flow into our bankrolls.

Note: The visitor has cashed 8 of the L/10 times these teams have played. 

OHIO ST is 7-19 ATS L/26 in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. OHIO ST is 0-6 ATS after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.

HC Dantonio is 17-3-2 ATS away with conference revenge, including 5-0 ATS versus undefeated sides like Ohio State.

CFB team (OHIO ST) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team ( 80% or more ) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 12-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home favorites (OHIO ST) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, undefeated on the season are 14-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Michigan State to cover 

Old Dominion has lost 3 straight since defeating FCS Norfolk State in their opener and  things don't look to get much better, here this week vs a revenge minded Western Kentucky team that lost 37-34 at home last season. to the Monarchs   ODU is just   2-8 ATS L/10  in  Sun Belt tilts and is fade material .  The key here to what Im betting will be a cover for the road team is the  Toppers  No. 19 ranked  overall defense,  that is limiting opposition offences to  to just 3 yards per rush. Im betting on a shutdown performance for the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky has won their L/2 visits here and get the nod again. 

OLD DOMINION is 1-9 ATS  in home games after playing a non-conference game.

CFB Home underdogs (OLD DOMINION) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 7-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 

  Nebraska a proverbial  middle weight  got flattened last week by a heavy weight in  Ohio State in embarrassing fashion, at home in front of their own illumjini and will now have a hard time getting up of the matt without being a little wobbly. I know the Huskers are now in desperation mode , but with bruised egos and mediocre talent they will have their hands full again this week vs the Cats. .  Northwestern has covered 4 straight in this series on the road and previous to last weeks hard fought loss at Wisconsin were riding a  8-game Big Ten road win  streak and must not be underestimated in the visitors role.  Note: Fitzgerald is 6-0 ATS in road games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog as the coach of NORTHWESTERN.

Northwestern is also a perfect 12-0 ATSL/12 as conference road dogs winning 9 of those game SU.  

Northwestern to cover 

 Last week the Buffalo Bulls looked like they were in a hang over spot when they faced Miami O on the road. Previous to that loss they beat up on a pretty good Temple team. Meanwhile Miami came out on fire, after being humiliated the week before 76-5 by Ohio State and were also getting some good breaks and calls from the officials. Now with that game behind them the Bulls come home to take on the Ohio Bobcats, a team Im betting they matchup very well against. 

Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Bulls are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Bulls are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.Bulls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.Bulls are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

BUFFALO is 8-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Home team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings and Ohio is 0-4 ATS L/4 visits to Buffalo. 

 BUFFALO is also 6-0 ATS  in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.OHIO U is 2-13 ATS L/15 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%).

CFB road team vs. the money line (OHIO U) - off a big upset loss by 17 points or more as a favorite, a su bar performing team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 1-26 SU l/10 seasons for a 97% go against conversion rate.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BUFFALO) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Buffalo to cover 

 Virginia Tech comes off a Friday night  home game last week where they were dominated by the Duke Blue Devils and now this week Im betting they get their proverbial butts handed to them again. HC Fuentes Hokies just don't have a viable recruiting program any more and the talent levels are beginning to suffer, and that will become evident as this season progresses. Here on the road vs Miami look for the Canes top tier D that is  holding opposing teams to just 16 PPG on defense  and an efficient offence that is   producing  31 PPG  to dominate on both sides of the line of scrimmage .   The wild card here belongs to the Canes behind  QB Jarren Williams (1,027 yards, 7 TD)  who is fast improving game changer with a high potential outlook. 

Hokies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

Hokies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.

Hokies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.

Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CFB Favorites of -425 or higher vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 44-1 SU L/27 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at 21+ ppg. 

Miami Fl to cover 

When Military academies go head to head its almost guaranteed your going to see a low scoring hard hitting battle. Run baby run, and lots of clock time getting eaten way. Is the mantra of the day. 

When Military academies have played against each other of late the UNDER has been predominant sinnce the 2006 campaign cashing 34 of the 42 times for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

 The Bronze Stalk Trophy is up for grabs when these two MAC rivals go head to head here this Saturday. The Huskies are 17-3 L/20 in this series SU including 10 straight SU and get my support here again. I know NIU  has suffered three straight road losses against P5 opponents, but now Im betting being home and facing a team more on their own level that they have an edge behind a top tier D. 

BALL ST is 0-6 ATS  in road games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.N ILLINOIS is 30-15 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). 

Play on Northern Illinois to cover 

Im betting on these two grounds attacks pounding away on each other today in a hard fought battle until the very end. 

AIR FORCE is 0-6 ATS after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Calhoun is 11-21 ATS  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more  rushing yards/carry as the coach of AIR FORCE.

Road favorites (AIR FORCE) - excellent rushing team (230 or more RY/G) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or less RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games are 8-26 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Navy to cover 

 The Frogs are 6-2 L/8 in this series SU and  are 40-15 on the road since 2009. That’s the third-most road wins in the country. Note:  TCU freshman quarterback Max Duggan is going home. He was Iowa’s Gatorade Player of the Year in 2018 and he will be motivated to shine here today.  Yes, this will be a hard fought game, but the difference maker will be TCUS ferocious ground attack which will make taking points golden. 

CFB home team  (IOWA ST) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games are 4-30 SU L/10 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on TCU to cover 

 Im a big fan of  Iowas HC Kirk Ferentz’. He has assembled a hard nosed blue collar D that  is allowing just 8.5 PPG  and must be respected vs a Michigan team that continues down trending. 

Harbaugh versus undefeated opponents, is  0-8 ATS in the last eight games overall. 

Michigan is just 4-10 ATS L/10 at home as 9 point or less favs.

CFB Road underdogs (IOWA) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG), after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 32-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (IOWA) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 38-12 L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa to cover 

San Jose State has not been favored in a few years stretching back 27 games, and despite of being an improved football program of late,  they just don't deserve such a lofty chalk status. The Spartans average 71 plays per game and just 5.79 yards per play and after watching alot of their highlights just do not look like they have the guns to do a great deal of damage against a ugly New Mexico D. Yes, I know the San Jose State beat Arkansas but that was because of some huge offensive plays and not consistent vertical ball movement. Meanwhile, the Lobos can move the ball, but so far their red zone efficiency has been lacking, something I also bet will come to end here tonight against the Sparties. 

NEW MEXICO is 45-27 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Play on New Mexico to cover 

Temple's 19th ranked overall D showed how elite their defence can be last week when they stopped Georgia Tech cold in a 24-3 win and Im betting they slow East Carolinas improving but not quite ready for prime time attack here tonight in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. Note: TEMPLE is 16-4 UNDER after allowing 9 points or less last game with a combined average of 45 ppg scored.

All of East Carolinas 5 games have stayed on the low side of the total this season and in their 2 home games have allowed an average of 8 ppg. 

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (E CAROLINA) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in conference games are 41-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Ive seen some crazy occurrences over the years, but witnessing the Bruins  come from behind win  against No. 19 Washington State last week was one of the all time gridiron freak shows  that I can recollect . The Bruins came back from a  49-17  deficit by scoring 50 points in the second half to pull off a miraculous 67-63 victory despite of allowing 720 yards in offence. A 6-1 turnover ratio was the difference maker.  It was the 3rd largest comeback win ever in NCAA history, and now Im betting on Chip Kelleys Bruins team being in a major let down situation and now going against a side  that will be fired up with revenge on board for last seasons 31-30 loss to the Bruins . The Wildcats when playing off a by bye week against an opponent coming off a SUATS victory are 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS at home last 9 opportunities.

I know alot of pundits think that UCLA might be turning a corner , after that last effort but if you look at the stats and slash lines for the Bruins, its obvious despite of last weeks crazy performance that this is highly not a probable hypothesis. 

UCLA is 8-20 ATS L/28 in road games after scoring 42 points or more last game .

UCLA is 7-19 ATS in road games against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season.

Sumlin is 12-3 ATS when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less) in all games . Sumlin is 21-9 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA) - in conference games, off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog are 27-6 ATS L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona to cover 

Utah State has been merciless against opponents at home of late as is evident by the following trend. This team does not take their foot off the pedal in start to finish wipeout wins. Note:  UTAH ST is 7-0 ATS  in home games over the last 2 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 40.6 ppg. 

Utah State after  playing against a staunch San Diego State D,   will be ready to explode offensively against a Colorado State side allowing more than 40 ppg on the season.  As far a s aback door cover , I doubt the banged up Rams who are expected to play without their top RB Marvin Kinsey (shoulder) and  QB Colin Hill (ACL) this week to be much of a threat. 

Utah State is 17-0-1 ATS  L/18  as a favorite of at least three points facing a team averaging at least 30 points per game with the L/5 wins coming by margins of 55,39,39,42,31 points. 

Play on Utah State to cover 

An explosive looking Ohio State heads to Lincoln to go  against  up trending  but not quite ready for prime time Nebraska. The Buckeyes are coming off a merciless clobbering ,over Miami (Ohio) at home by a  76-5  count .  Ohio State has looked like a championship calibre team behind Quarterback Justin Fields who is already making a strong case for the Heisman Trophy and here today vs a Nebraska team that has been in close affairs vs much lesser sides, Im expecting a beatdown by the away side, as this tilt progresses. My own projections estimate a 20+ point win by the Buckeyes, making this a viable side option backing Ohio State. 

NEBRASKA is 1-9 ATS  in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NEBRASKA is 0-7 ATS in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (OHIO ST) - allowing 200 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games against opponent after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Road favorites of -425 or higher vs. the money line (OHIO ST) - after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 44-1 SU with the average ppg diff of +23.1 ppg going on the board. 

 CFB Road favorites (OHIO ST) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 52-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ohio State to cover 

 The Kentucky Wildcats are suffering with QB injuries as both their starters QB Terry Wilson and Sawyer Smith are injured or less than 100%. Bob Stoops troops can still play top tier D, but having their offence limited thanks to their QB issues makes them fade material here vs South Carolina this week. 

The Cats are 0-10 ATS versus conference foes when coming off a double- digit loss . KENTUCKY is 20-36 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25  or more yards/play since 1992.

South Carolina to cover 

Oklahoma State is off an emotional hard fought affair that they lost to Texas last week and could now easily be in an emotional letdown spot . It must be noted that Cowboys HC Mike Gundy is 1-3 ATS as a favorite versus undefeated Big 12 opposition  and 1-5 ATS as conference home favorite of 9.5 points or less. Oklahoma State is built to run and gun through with their efficiency leaning on their air attack which is not a good omen here vs a Kansas State side, with a top tier defensive secondary that is ranked 2nd in the nation, allowing just 118.7 YPG. HC Chris Kleiman is on a 24-0 SU road run dating back to his days with NDSU and knows how to get his troops prepared to play on the road. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 8-21 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams, 32 or more minutes TOP, 21 or more  FD's per game. 

CFB Home favorites (OKLAHOMA ST) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 26-60 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas State to cover 

Last week  vs Texas Oklahoma State showed me two things. One their offence remains very viable and No.2 their defence is horrendous. This week against a under rated Kansas State offence Im betting they get torched and that they have no choice but to open up with some offensive fireworks of their own in a game i have projected to go over the total.  This line is actually as low as it is because of the lines-makers respect the Kansas State D esecially the secondary, and their propensity to eat cock time via a top tier run game, but the Cowboys can score against the best of defences. My projections estimate both sides will score more than 28 points. Note: KANSAS ST is 57-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points since 1992 with the combined average score of 75.3 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA ST is 11-1 OVER  in home games when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 season with a combined average of 79.5 ppg scored.

OKLAHOMA ST is 6-0 OVER  vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75  or kore rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 89 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. excellent passing defenses allowing 5.25 or less passing yards/att with a combined average of 70 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 OVER in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 85.4 ppg scored.

Oklahoma State is 15-0  OVER L/4 seasons at home when they allowed at least 28 points last game with the average combined score of 81.8 ppg going on the board. Every game surpassed todays total, with the smallest out put clicking in at 69 combined points. 

Play OVER 

 LA Techs Skip Holtz despite of not getting alot of respect as a favourite in the recent past is now  2-0 ATS as chalk this season so far and Im betting he makes it 3 in a row here this Saturday vs Rice a football program with no recent tradition of winning as is evident by 6 victories in  the last 3 seasons combined. The Owls had alot of players back from last season, but that does not mean much considering their previous performances. So far this season Rice is just 0-4 SU losing the stats battle all 4 times. Louisiana Tech’s has owned this series of late going a perfect  5-0 SU with the  average  margin of  victory coming by 48 PPG and Im betting on another big time win here this Saturday.

Rice is  0-7 ATS as dogs of less than 17 points versus team with a record of  .600 or better.

 LOUISIANA TECH is 8-0 ATS  against teams who commit 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season.LOUISIANA TECH is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.  LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons.

CFB  road team (LOUISIANA TECH) - good team (outgain opp. by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP) against a struggling team (outgained by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-1 SU with the average ppg diff clicking in at +20.1 .

Play on LA Tech to cover 

I have alot of respect for both these football programs, but I feel Cincinnati is the superior side, yes even here in Joan C. Edwards Stadium. Add to that the motivation of the Bearcats wanting revenge for a embarrassing 38-21 loss  to the Herd at home during the 2017 season, and we have a favourable situation laying lumber here with Luke Fickells  Cincinnati.

The  Bearcats are also off a bye week and well rested, and will have a freshness edge vs a Marshall side that  is just 0-5 ATS in their L/5 in back to back homes games which is the situation this Saturday.

The key this week will be the ability of the Bearcats top tier  front 7 to limit the Thundering Herds key mode of moving the ball  ....which is their ground game. 

CFB home team (MARSHALL) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more  YPR) against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), in non-conference games are  21-54 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cincinnati Bearcats to cover 

Sonny dykes really has the SMU Mustangs playing good football, but after upsetting TCU 41-38  last week I can see his up-trending  team being in a letdown situation vs a under rated opponent playing at home. I know Charlie Strong may not inspire bettors but according to my projections we have value with the rested home dog. 

Mustangs are just 3-12-1 SU and 3-13 ATS away when coming off a SU underdog win, including 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in conference tilts.

SMU is 2-15 ATS after a win by 3 or less points.

Mustangs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Mustangs are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. 

Play on the USF Bulls to cover 

 Florida Atlantics Lane, Kiffin is 2-2 this season,. but Im betting they come out on top here today at  Jerry Richardson Stadium  as they have revenge on board for a  27-24 defeat vs Charlotte as a 16-point home favorite in the final game of the 2018 season, costing the Owls to become Bowl eligible  .  Kiffin owns an 8-3 ATS record when he has revenge on the road and with the fan base getting restless you can bet he will have his team revved  up to perform this week.

vOwls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.

49ers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games in September.

CFB road team  (FLA ATLANTIC) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a struggling defensive team (34 or more PPG), after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 38-6 SU L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida Atlantic to cover 

Matt Rhule's Baylor a side that has out yarded their opponents by 235 jpg is going to be really primed to pull of the underdog upset here at home vs visiting Iowa State where they  are  5-0 ATS  L/5 at home. Last season the Bears lost 28-14  on the road at Ames, and now with revenge on board should really be fired up to get some payback. Note: Teams in this series with revenge have cashed 10 of the L/12 opportunities. 

HC Rhule is 15-3 ATS L/18 against conference opposition  like the Cyclones coming off a double-digit win.Rhule is 7-0 ATS  in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. in all games he has coached since 1992.Rhule is 11-1 ATS in home games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992.

IOWA ST is 6-17 ATS  in road games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BAYLOR) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games are 32-9 ATS L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baylor to cover 

 After being bruised and battered and humiliated by Ohio State last week Im betting Miami O, wont be in the best of spirits, as they face a Buffalo team entering this game  with momentum and confidence after they themselves pummelled a very good Temple squad last week.

CFB home team vs. the money line (MIAMI OHIO) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games is 3-33 SU L/10 seasons for a go against 91% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home favorites (MIAMI OHIO) - after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game are 4-23 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team (BUFFALO) - after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games are 23-3 ATS L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover 

Middle Tennessee State started their season covering vs Michigan but last time out were blasted by DDs by a under rated Duke team. Now this week I look for the Blue Raiders  to be capable underdogs vs a Iowa side that has a tendency of playing down to opponents, and is also looking ahead to playing the Michigan Wolverines next week. 

MIDDLE TENN ST is 27-13 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points and are 4-1 ATS L/5 non conference road dogs of 14 points or more.

This selection is based on the mathematics of my projections vs this line. 

Play on the Middle Tenn State to cover 

California Bears quarterback Chase Garbers,  threw for four touchdowns and finished 23-of-35 for 357 yards in a big time performance.  QUOTE: “Chase was awesome. That’s the best game he has played; it’s not even close,” Cal coach Justin Wilcox told reporters. END QUOTE: I know California has a reputation for playing top tier D with Wilcox at the helm the last few seasons, but now with momentum on his side I look for Garbers to be cut loose and for the offence to begin to be more potent. Meanwhile, Arizona State , a fast improving offensive line that has two freshmen on board. This group is giving alot of protection Freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels  who threw for 345 yards and two touchdowns against Colorado and allowed the Sun Devils to be dangerous with play option modules, senior wideout Brandon Aiyuk, who had nine receptions for 122 yards and a TD and  Eno Benjamin who  had 83 yards and two TDs via the ground attack. Both sides are recognized as defensive teams, but both offences are improving and Im betting on more points here than the lines makers are anticipating. Note:The Sun Devils have scored in double figures in 123 straight games, which is the longest active streak in the nation.

Over is 8-2 in Sun Devils last 10 Friday games.Over is 13-5 in Golden Bears last 18 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play OVER 

Coming off a 41-18 road victory over Middle Tennessee and a bye week, Duke enters ACC play as a possible dark horse in the Coastal Division and viable underdog vs a chaotic style defence that Virginia Tech utilizes. Tonight Im betting on the Blue Devils under rated QB Quentin Harris to handle the aggressive   Virginia Tech defense. Harris owns a solid touchdown-to-interception ratio of four to one so far in the season and is the wild card here. 

Note:  Well rested  Duke off a bye week has revenge on board for a  31-17 loss to VTech as 7-point home fav last year and will be primed for pay back.

The Dog is 5-1 ATSL/6 in this series.

DUKE is 9-0 ATS  as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992. DUKE is 6-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (VIRGINIA TECH) - with a turnover margin of -1.5 /game or worse on the season are 30-68 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Duke Blue Devils to cover

Rocky Longs San Diego State Aztecs have won two straight to begin their season, and look very much to be under rated here at home today vs a good but also over rated Utah State football program. This is a classic setup of offence vs defence. The Aggies are explosive, but the Aztecs D, is of the top tier variety as is evident by allowing just 248 yards and 8 points per game so far. 

SD St is a perfect 4-0 ATS L/4 as a home underdog.

Aztecs coach Rocky Long is 12-1 ATS in his career as a conference dog when coming off back to back  SU/ATS wins.

UTAH ST is 10-22 ATS in road games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Long is 11-2 ATS  after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games as the coach of SAN DIEGO ST.

CFB Road favorites (UTAH ST) - excellent rushing team (230 or more RY/G) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or less RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 10-33 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN DIEGO ST) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 52-21 ATS L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the San Diego State Aztecs to cover 

Georgia won 20-19 in 2017 at South Bend the last time these two football programs met. Now the rematch switches to Athens. The Dawgs are just 4-10 ATS L/14 at home with non conference revenge. 

This game is of ultra importance to the Fighting Irish as they have no conference championship game to play in, thus this becomes a must-win for Notre Dame and Im betting they come out here like a rabid dogs and metaphorically ready to fight to the death. Meanwhile  Georgia can afford to suffer a loss and still be a front runner come selection Sundayand may not play with the same tenacity they would in a SEC tilt. Note: Underdogs of more than 12 points who won 12 or more games the previous season are 11-0 ATS over the L/4 seasons ( Notre Dame fits the bill and gets my support)

Kelly is 7-0 ATS  after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached

CFB road team (NOTRE DAME) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 or less YPP), after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs (NOTRE DAME) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100 or more YPG), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 46-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Notre Dame to cover 

Needless to say that these teams Notre Dame and Georgia are explosive offensively with Notre Dame averaging 50.5 ppg so far this season and Georgia producing 49.3 ppg overall. The last time these teams played Notre Dame came away with a 20-19 victory, but both these teams dynamics have changed since then and Im projecting an all out head to head slugfest in the rematch. First team to 40 wins. 

GEORGIA is 9-1 OVER  after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 67.6 ppg scored.

Over is 3-1-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 8-3-2 in Bulldogs last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 5-2-1 in Bulldogs last 8 games following a ATS win.Over is 4-1-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Over is 5-2 in Fighting Irish last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 16-7 in Fighting Irish last 23 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 15-5 in Fighting Irish last 20 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

 Play on the OVER 

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have beat up on 3 inferior programs to start their campaign, and Texas in their only real battle, vs LSU (45-38) showed they are still up-trending despite of regression worries from the pundits . I know Oklahoma State has won 4 straight close battles in this series, but   Texas according to my  power rankings is the superior side, in a tilt vs a Cowboys team has failed to cover its L/7 Big12 openers. At anything lower than -7 Im laying here. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 0-7 ATS  in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games since 1992.

TEXAS is 13-4 ATS  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

CFB Home favorites (TEXAS) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 25-4 ATS L/27 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas to cover 

Stanford was annihilated last week by UCF in a DD beatdown. The Cardinal were in an unfortunate letdown spot last week after a loss to USC the previous week. However, after their last embarrassing effort I expect a bounce back effort here at home where the Cardinal are 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS as a home underdog dating back 12 seasons, including 4-0 SUATS with head coach David Shaw. It must also be noted that Oregon has only cashed 4 of their L/21 away from Eugene .
 

OREGON is 1-8 ATS after a win by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

STANFORD is 18-6 ATS L/24  versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 4.25 or less yards/play STANFORD is 28-13 ATS L/41 vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att.

CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OREGON) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 19-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Stanford to cover 

New Mexico does not have a culture of winning in place and have now lost 17 of their L/21  SU overall. Davies HC  Lobos  played their hearts out against Notre Dame last week despite of being pounded by a 66-14 count and won't have enough left in the tank to be near enough dominant to cover the number this week in this instate rivalry game. 

Davie is 2-9 ATS in home games after playing a non-conference game as the coach of NEW MEXICO.Davie is 6-18 ATS (as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - in a game involving two teams with 1.25 or less turnovers/game forced, after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Mexico State to cover 

Missouri has not beaten South Carolina since the 2016 season, but Im betting that comes to end here this week at home vs a side that was battered and beaten physically last week by Alabama . it must be noted that Carolina maybe getting too much respect out of the gate this season, as they have been outgunned and out-gained by their 2 FBS opponents this season. Last season the Tigers  lost 37-35 to the Gamecocks but  were the superior side in the stats battle outgaining the Birds by a  490-377 count . Im expecting those numbers to be replicated and or bettered this week, and for Missouri to get the cover in convincing fashion. 

Missouri have dominated their last two opponents outscoring them by a 88-7 count.MISSOURI is 16-5 ATS  in home games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4 ppg.

CFB home team  (MISSOURI) - after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 24-2 SU with the average point per game diff registering at +20.2 ppg. 

Play on Missouri to cover 

UCF is off a convincing full throttle beat down of Stanford last week, and could easily find themselves in a natural letdown spot here vs Pittsburgh this week. Meanwhile, the Panthers thanks to a hard nosed D, and athletic top tier secondary gave Penn State all they could handle last week in a 17-10 loss and Im betting will be  a handful for the Knights here in this spot.  

UCF is 0-13 SU in its school history in games against current FBS teams when the Knights are coming off a current FBS affiliated foe.

PITTSBURGH is 10-0 ATS L/10 after 2 consecutive games where they forced no turnovers since 1992. 

CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCF) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 475 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77%conversion rate.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

RedHawks coach Chuck Martin is 26-14 ATS as an underdog and also owns a 6-1 ATS mark as a non-conference underdog of 21 or more points. Meanwhile, Ohio State is 2-6 ATS as favorites of 34 or more points against MAC opposition and fade material on this big a chalk line. I know Ohio State is the vastly superior side, but from a mathematical standpoint my projections make this a value underdog line. 

CFB Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (MIAMI OHIO) - after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 23-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Home favorites of 31.5 or more points (OHIO ST) - with a good offense - averaging 5.8 or more yards/play, after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami O to cover 

Akron s offence is practically non existent and has scored only 15.7 PPG, which is 124th in the country, and they won't be able to keep up with a team that just put up 42 points vs Mississippi State last week. This game has total annihilation written all over it. Note: CFB road team vs. the money line (TROY) - excellent offensive team (440  or moreYPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-1 SU L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18 ppg. 

Play on Troy to cover 

 Im impressed with UL Lafayette and their top tier running game and because Ohio continues to struggle against the run, Im betting their a live under appreciated dog . The Cajuns return five senior starting offensive linemen  and are a tough experienced group that can protect the three headed monster of  Raymond Calais, Trey Ragas and Elijah Mitchell  who combined   2900  plus yards on the ground last season averaging  6.7 ypc. This season already this explosive trio is   averaging 8.1 ypc. Im betting on more of the same dynamic action today vs an Ohio run D, that is allowing  5.2 yards per carry this season, ranking them a dismal 114th in the nation at not stopping the run.

LA LAFAYETTE is 15-3 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 game.

CFB home (OHIO U) - after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game against opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 4-25  SU  L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UL Lafayette to cover

UMass is looking like a dismal football program right now but Coastal Carolina in only their 3rd season of FBS football should not be this big fav on the road , not even against this horrid group. It must be noted that Coastal has only one road win by 11 points or more, since joining  the FBS and with their Sunbelt opener coming next week vs App State they may not be fully focused here , making the ugly home dog a value selection on this line. 

UMass to cover 

Syracuse after getting run over by Clemson last week in a much anticipated game will be ina letdown situation vs a under rated Western Michigan side  with 14 starters returning and that  put 352 yards against a stingy  Michigan State defense in their opener  and 7 TDs vs Georgia State last week .Considering  Dino Barbers team have been run over to the tune 675 yards in the last two tilts  things may not get much better today.

CFB road team (W MICHIGAN) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-1 SU L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18 . 

Play on Western Michigan to cover 

Utah visits USC on Friday night. On the opening line a couple of land locked sports books opened this game as a pickem before the public and some sharps scrambled in with their money on Utah. But now at +4 we have value with the Trojans at home. Note:The home team has won 6 straight in the series and has covered 7 of the last 8 meetings. With that said, Im betting USC  behind the big arm of  Kedon Slovis’ and a strong running game and  a defense that is top 20 in opponent red zone scoring and top 25 in sacks will get the job done and deliver to us some profits here this evening. It must be noted that USCs new air raid system is something that has given the Utes alot of problems of late, as they are 0-5 ATS L/5 vs a team using the air raid offence. 

Whittingham is 19-30 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of UTAH.

CFB  home team (USC) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, with 5 defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 29-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the USC to cover 

FIU may not inspire bettors but they have a history of competing, and have cashed 8 of their L/9 against a 500 team like LA Tech. Skip Holtz has never been a coach to back laying points, and I really feel this is one of his lesser teams and lack value on a TD or more line as favs.

Davis is 17-2 ATS after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992 which was the case in their last game vs New Hampshire. 

Holtz is 2-9 ATS  in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 as the coach of LOUISIANA TECH

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry are 50-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Take the points with Florida International to cover 

Tulane is a fine team with a  under rated and  strong D, and  a grinding run game. Im betting these will both be on full display this Thursday night .  Im also  betting the Green Wave D, will limit Houstons explosive offence, and their run game will be dominate as the Cougars eat up plenty of click time. Meanwhile, Houston under HC Holgerson has implemented an extremely slow pace , so clock time will tick tick away in unison with Tulane's modus operandi which Im expecting to manifest in to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total. 

TULANE is 13-4 UNDER  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25  or more. rushing yards/carry. TULANE is 7-0 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. TULANE is 13-4 UNDER  after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. Note: The combined average scores of these trends above did not exceed this current totals number.

CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (HOUSTON) - off 3 or more consecutive unders, quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half are 35-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Orange were annihilated last week as favs by a  63-20 count at Maryland. Im betting that this team was more focused on their upcoming game against the Tigers than the Terps.  Despite of public recency bias, based on results Dino Babers knows how to slow Clemson as Syracuse only lost by 4 at Clemson a year ago, and was undefeated at  6-0 at home in 2018 and must be respected getting this many points in the Carrier Dome. Note: Clemson is 0-8 ATS L/8  on the road as 20 or more favs. 

Take the points with Syracuse to cover 

Hawaii despite of being porous on D, have enough offensive weapons to stay within the number here vs a over rated Washington side. The public and pundits are expecting the Huskies to bounce back this week after being upset by California 20-19. But Im betting this weeks expected  victory will not come so easily . Note: In the L/14 seasons, ranked teams after a loss like Washington have gone 244-300-14 (44%) against the spread (ATS) .  From a head to head historical reference Washington leads the series 3-2 SU with the last two meetings featuring wins for the Huskies by 1point at Hawaii in 2014, and by 8 points  at home in 2011. 

Play on Hawaii to cover 

Florida has owned Kentucky at home winning 15 straight here vs the Wildcats, and Im betting nothing changes today as the home team goes into battle without their starting QB Terry Wilson who is expected to be out for the season with a knee injury. Because of the injury the line is a plus TD for the favs Florida . Im big on value lines, but Im betting this is not one of them. Note:Kentucky is 3-23 ATS in its last twenty-six straight-up losses at home.

Mullen is 10-0 ATS after playing 2 straight non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. ( Mullens team 29.2 vs  opp 15 ppg)

CFB road team (FLORIDA) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, after allowing 6 points or less last game are 35-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team (FLORIDA) - good rushing team from last season - averaged 200 or more rushing yards/game, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 44-14 ATS L/27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Florida Gators to cover 

 Last week, Georgia State trailed 20-3 to  Furman of the FCS in the second quarter, but quarterback Dan Ellington and the Panther offense exploded with a 48-42 victory. Im expecting Ellington and company to keep trucking here today. Meanwhile,  the Western Michigan Broncos defense was completely destroyed by a usually impotent Mich State Spartan offense last week allowing just under 200 yards receiving and rushing to two individual players. Since last season  new DC Lou Esposito has allowed   opponent to  score six touchdowns in 4 of 6 games. Everything points to his being a block buster affair with crap defence as the feature. 

Over is 6-0 in Broncos last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 7-0-1 in Broncos last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games overall.Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games on fieldturf.Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 vs. S-Belt.Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a ATS loss.Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.Over is 15-5 in Broncos last 20 home games.Over is 34-12-1 in Broncos last 47 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 road games.Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games on fieldturf.

Play OVER

 After being blasted by KState 52-0 last week it might be hard for some to see some light when its comes to BGSU. However , I do expect the Green Falcons to bounce back this week in their home coming tilt and make a game of this vs visiting Louisiana  Tech.  Im betting on the Falcons  to establish a run game with Clair, Frye, and a big OL, and keep themselves within the number. 

Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.

Falcons are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

 Bowling Green to cover 

Im betting on two long time instate non conference rivals to go to head in a real battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy this week, despite of recency bias favoring Iowa. The Hawkeyes are just 2-5 ATS as conference road favs and the home team in this series has covered 3 straight times . I know Iowa State did not look great in their opener, but   Iowa State is coming off a  bye week and has spent that time getting energized and preparing for their big rivalry matchup.

Campbell is 9-2 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of IOWA ST.

Play on Iowa State to cover 

Im betting  Georgia Southern option attack will grind this clock down quickly, while Minnesota behind their running game and big Oline will do the same. 

Under is 9-3 in Eagles last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-2 in Eagles last 7 non-conference games.Under is 13-6 in Eagles last 19 games following a straight up win. Under is 12-3 in Eagles last 15 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games in September.

Under is 5-1 in Golden Gophers last 6 games overall.Under is 5-1 in Golden Gophers last 6 games on fieldturf.Under is 4-1 in Golden Gophers last 5 non-conference games.Under is 5-2 in Golden Gophers last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Golden Gophers last 7 home games

Play UNDER 

Memphis has started their season winning their first two home games including a week 1 15-10  victory vs Ole Miss and an easy 55-24 victory vs a FCS opponent Southern last week. Now in a let down spot vs a tough Sun belt opponent South Alabama Im betting covering this number will not come easily. MEMPHIS is 1-9 ATS in road games off 2 consecutive home wins since 1992.MEMPHIS is 4-15 ATS  after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992 and is 13-33 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game since 1992.

Memphis is just 3-16 SU in their L/19 road openers.

Play on South Alabama to cover 

The Mounties are coming off a 38-7 beat down  at Missouri  and now are being given a home dog classification by the lines-makers vs a over rated NC State football program that just got finished beating up on two sub par Carolina programs(East and Coastal). I know that West Virginia might be down a few notches this season with just 10 returning starters, and have a new head coach, but this line is over blown thanks to recency bias thus giving us value according to my projections. Note: West Virginia 20-1 L/21 at home vs non conference opposition.

NC STATE is 8-22 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W VIRGINIA) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games are 32-9 ATS L/27seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W VIRGINIA) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, in non-conference games are 33-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on West Virginia to cover 

Temple and Maryland have  alot of  similarities this season. New head coaches and offensive systems. Inexperienced top tier  talent everywhere. According to my power ranking projections both all match up very well, and Im not going to be swayed by Maryland 2 lopsided wins in the first couple of weeks of this season.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 74-33 L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, in non-conference games are 33-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play on the Temple Owls to cover 

Tonight Im betting a talented blue collar group in Kansas State under new HC Chris Klieman, will give a over rated Mississippi State program a much closer battle than many might anticipate. Kansas State annihilated their first two opponents, and  while the Bulldogs also won their first two games they were far from spectacular, and with starting QB Tommy Stevens enduring a shoulder injury last week and backup QB Garrett Shrader expected  to start  further credence is added to my call .( Even if Sharder starts Im still expect KState to play a jack in the box role today metaphorically speaking-suprise suprise )

 Mississippi State is in a look ahead revenge mode for their  SEC season opener against Kentucky next week and may not be fully focused here, giving us value with the dog.

New Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman, has won 23 away games in a row and knows how to get his troops prepared in the visitors role. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS ST) - after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 43-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team (KANSAS ST) - allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 93-47 ATS L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Kansas State Wildcats to cover 

Lovie Smiths Illinois is up-trending, with two straight wins to start their campaign but Im betting they will have their hands full with a Eastern Michigan side that is 21-7-1 ATS in its last 29 on the road. Meanwhile, Illinois is  just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 versus an opponent from the MAC and still don't have a winning culture in place as is evident by going 13-57 Su  in regular season games over the last 12 seasons. Yes, Eastern Michigan lost to Kentucky last week 38-17 and failed to cover as 16 point dogs,  but this hard nosed never say die group deserves our respect as does the football program that has gone 12-1 ATS L/13 vs .500 or better opposition and that is 7-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

Kansas State comes into Starkville with a top 10 defense and wont be easily intimidated . On offence the Wildcats are a run first type of team, and because of this alot of clock time will be eaten up and quickly. This Im betting leads to a lower scoring game than many might think on what has become a bloated total since being released. 

KANSAS ST is 8-1 UNDER  after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.6 ppg scored.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 7-0 UNDER   after playing a game at home over the last 2 season with a combined average of 31.5 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (KANSAS ST) - excellent rushing team (230 or more  RY/G) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game), after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game are 39-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Tonights tilt at NRG Stadium, the home of the Texans will see the vast majority of the crowd rooting for Houston. which Im betting will give them a edge.

It must be noted that Washington States HC   Leach is  just 2-7 ATS in weekday games and 5-14-2 ATS going against  .500 or better non-conference opposition . Leach is also 0-7 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached since 1992.

With a top tier coach Dana Holgorsen, who stands 17-1 SU in non-conference games. and a Houston Cougars football program that are 13-1-1 ATS as 2 or more points underdogs we have  a viable side to back here tonight on ESPN. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - in non-conference games, in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games are 64-27 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - porous defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 52-21 ATS L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Cougars to cover 

The Cougars  used to be a fast paced team  (No. 1 in seconds per play last season) but  now under new coach Dana Holgorsen  the pace has slowed alot .Houston ranks 100th of 130 FBS teams in plays per second at 28.4 and bleeding the clock Im betting will be on full display for Houston tonight.  I know Washington State can score in bunches behind a strong passing game, but Houston has shown flashes of brilliance in their secondary already thiss season and are capable of slowing down the visitors attack tonight in a game I pegged to stay on the low side of what is a bloated total based on past assumptions . 

HOUSTON is 11-3 UNDER in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 62.3 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (WASH ST/HOUSTON) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed) are 46-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Mac Brown return as  coach of North Carolina was impressive as he took out rival South Carolina.  Now coming home his young men are feeling confident, which the same cannot be said, about a Miami Fl side that was run over by a speedy Florida D in game one losing by a 24-20 count. Last week the Gamecocks had just 270 total yards and went 3 for 13 on third down and Im betting they can slow the Canes in this spot.  Meanwhile, N.Carolina;s new Offensive coordinator Phil Longo, previously of Ole Miss knows how to fire up a offence with different looks and Im betting he has this Canes D on their heels here today. Possible upset in the making , which makes getting points here a viable investment opportunity.  HC Mac  Brown’s career numbers  are 14-0 last fourteen home openers) and 4-0 ATS as a conference home dog against opposition coming off a loss like the Miami Canes. 

Play on N.Carolina Tarheels to cover 

Western Michigan has one the most talented experienced returning groups in the nation ( production wise) and won't be intimidated by the Michigan State Spartans. Considering look ahead tilts to Arizona State and Northwestern on deck over the next couple of weeks, Dantonio and company may not be fully focused on this up trending opponent which gives us value taking the underdog here. 

The Spartans are just 3-14 ATS L/17 at home in non conference action and 0-5 ATS L5 as 14 or more favourites.

MLB Road underdogs (W MICHIGAN) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game and  48-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play on Western Michigan to cover 

Wyoming according to my projections is being over rated here vs Texas State. Giving us value taking the points . 

Texas State had the No. 5 defense in the Sun Belt Conference in 2018, allowing 383.9 yards per game. Almost everyone returns this year and should continue to uptrend. With new  HC Jake Spavital’s at the helm of the team the offence should also see improvement. The old ball coach has proven himself over and over again with seven previous coaching stops, his last three as an offensive coordinator for Power 5 schools.Texas State trails 2-1 in the all-time series, but the hosting team has won each game. Home field advantage will be the difference maker here again this week vs Wyoming. 

Bohl is 6-15 ATS  in September games as the coach of WYOMING

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS ST) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 22-3 ATS L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas State to cover 

Florida International-was crushed last week vs Tulane 42-14, while Western Kentucky came out flat and was upset loss vs  FCS Central Arkansas 35-28 as 10 point favs. 

There is a new HC in Western Kentucky as Helton takes over and gets 10 returning starters to build with. It might not seem like it after getting upset by a FCS side, last week but  returning production and S&P+ projections for telling  the Hilltoppers to improve to 101st overall,  with a 6-6 record brings hope . With all 5 starters back on the O-line Im expecting bigger and better things from this Hilltoppers offence as the season progresses, starting today vs Florida International team that allowed 42 points to Tulane side that struggled mightily on offence last season.

FLA INTERNATIONAL is 9-21 ATS after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W KENTUCKY) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite are 48-16 ATS  L/27 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on W.Kentucky to cover 

The Vols 38-30 loss to a Georgia State team picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Conference was as shocking to say the least, and had the added bonus of showing me how bad their defence was going to be this season.Defensively, the Vols  struggled against Georgia States option attack as quarterback Dan Ellington made the Vols look less than mortal. Im betting BYU quarterback Zach Wilson who is  also mobile will do the same , which  will inflict more damage on a  injury plagued and struggling Vols defensive line. Needless to say Im betting BYU lights up the board here, while Tennessee will fire back with wreck-less abandon as they look for some kind spark from their offence. This Im also betting will lead to a combined score that eclipses this total. 

Over is 13-3 in Cougars last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. .

Play OVER 

Georgia State pulled of an enormous upset last week beating Tennessee in what will probably be the biggest upset of the year. Now in an equally enormous let down situation Georgia State is being over rated in this spot on what my own projections make a bloated line giving us value backing Furman getting points. It must be noted that Furman runs a triple option attack, and last year Georgia State rush D was atrocious and allowed huge chunks of ground yardage on individual plays from scrimmage and today their inadequacies will be exposed.

Play on Furman to cover

Maine  is as tough as nails defensively behind their now infamous “Black Hole” defense that returns almost all their starters.  The Black Bears  rush D, was of the top tier variety last season on the FCS and they will once again be hard to run against and more than prepared to slow down Georgia Southern’s triple option attack. Meanwhile, with Georgia Southerns junior quarterback Shai Werts is  banged up after last weeks run in with LSU and less than 100% the Eagles are being over rated.  Bottom line here this is a nasty FCS group that Georgia Southern will face here today and a win wont come easily for them, thus Im recommending we take the points.

Play on the Maine Black Bears to cover 

UCLA still looks like its going to be while before they morph into a better team as last week they  managed just 218 yards and 14 points against  Cincinnati. Now this week off a tough as nails San Diego State D, that shut out their opening week opponent , the Bruins will once again having issues putting points on the board. The Bruins Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson looked like a deer lost in headlights at times in week one, and his PTSD experience of fumbling twice and throwing two interceptions should spark more atrophy here.On the flip side   I know San Diego State Quarterback Ryan Agnew did not look good last week and his top tier running back Juwan Washington on a tender ankle had just 55 yards  last week in their 6-o win but, I don't think they wanted to open their play book and give the Bruins anything to look at. This week will be different. 

Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Aztecs are 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Bruins are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.Bruins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN DIEGO ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season are 43-14 ATS L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Jimbo Fisher has been competitive in previous tilts vs Dabo Swinney. Last season, Texas A&M gave Clemson fits in a a 28-26 victory by the Tigers in which the Aggies had more total yards.   Texas A&M head coach has beaten Clemson or stayed within 10 points in a loss in previous recent meetings. This Texas A&M team is built to stand tall against teams like Clemson and Im betting we have value taking points here this week.

TEXAS A&M is 12-1 ATS  after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. ( Texas A&M beat Texas St in week 1 at home)Fisher is 21-7 ATS  after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992. 

CFB road team (TEXAS A&M) - after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 40-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

CFB Road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 48-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas A&M Aggies to cover 

Colorado won last year's meeting 33-28 in Lincoln and despite of Nebraska wanting revenge and  their stock in an up-trending mode Im betting the Buffaloes will be a hand full for them. The Huskers despite of always getting alot of public support have lost 7 straight road games and if they end their current negative run  Im betting it won't come easily. 

The Buffaloes smashed Colorado State last week 52-31. Note:Buffaloes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Buffaloes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Cornhuskers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.Cornhuskers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games are 31-8 ATS L/27 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Colorado Buffs to cover 

Pitts young  OL  vs UVA last week was struggling, as 4 new starters gave up 4 sacks and Panthers gained only 263 total yards, but somehow still found a way to put 14 points on the board vs a very tough Virginia squad . This week Im betting the Panthers find ways to do some offensive damage this week, vs a Ohio  HC Solich side that does not have a reputation for staunch defences. Yes the secondary is experienced but, its not like they have shown much in the recent past. Meanwhile, Ohio is an explosive offensive group, behind the lethal  Nathan Rourke who remains one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. Im betting the power run game of the Bobcats  vs the weakness of the rush D of Pitt opens up this game for the pass game and mucho points go on the board in a tilt that Im betting eclipses the total. 

Note: Ohios FCS  opponent Rhode Island put 21 points on the board last week and Pitt is more than capable of eclipsing that number. 

NFL Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (PITTSBURGH) - in non-conference games, in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games are 85-43 OVER L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Boise State after travelling out to the east coast and erasing a DD deficit for a win vs Florida State last week will now be in a letdown spot. Yes, it is the Broncos home opener, but according to my power rankings Marshall is the type of team that is built to stay competitive against this type of opponent via a already solid defence and offence that has enough returning starters to make some noise. 

Harsin is 0-7 ATS  as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of BOISE ST. Harsin is 1-9 ATS  after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game as the coach of BOISE ST. 

CFB Home favorites (BOISE ST) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 16-44 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 

Scott Satterfield new era at Louisville will be tested when he  steps onto the field against Notre Dame with the most talented team overall he’s had in his coaching career. Admittedly Louisville . is a broken football program, that self disintegrated over the last few seasons and now has to be cautious moving forward. That Im betting is the game plan today vs a explosive Notre Dame fighting Irish team. The Cardinal have been a mistake prone team lacking discipline , but that is something the new head coach wont tolerate. Quote:“I can’t stand sloppy play. I can’t stand it,” Satterfield said during Monday’s press conference with the media. Im also betting that Louisville wont turn over the ball as much here , after ranking 126th in the nation last season. All and all Im backing the idea that Satterfilelds group keeps it simple , which Im betting makes for more of snail pace than many might believe is possible, which gives credence to my under wager recommendation here tonight. 

Under is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 non-conference gamesUnder is 7-3 in Fighting Irish last 10 games on fieldturf.

Play on the UNDER 

These teams met in the 2016 opener, and No. 15 Houston pulled a 33-23 stunner over the third-ranked Sooners. Oklahoma eventually won the Big 12 and beat Auburn in the Sugar Bowl, but the Sooners missed out on the playoff for the only time in the past four seasons.

Tonight in a game the public has pegged as a super shoot out, Im betting we have value with the under. Both offenses will once again be explosive. However, I am expecting the Sooners off season hiring of Alex Grinch from Ohio State to help the Sooners D immensely  .It must be noted that when he was with the Washington State Cougars of the PAC12 he knew very well how to handle that pass heavy conference. Meanwhile, Houston despite of still having a a capable attack, will still see a head coach Dana Holgorsen who in the past used pocket passers to move the ball efficiently. None of his previous QBS however were like  D’Eriq King  behind the 2nd adjusted pace. At W.Virginia they had a adjusted pace of 48th so there is a difference here that the Sooners new D could take advantage of, and subsequently slow down as this game progresses behind what will be a more aggressive pressure defence. 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (OKLAHOMA) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, with 8 defensive starters returning are 36-12 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (HOUSTON) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 40-13 UNDER UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Im betting Fresno States D, remains their strong point, and that their 25 game streak of holding opponents to 30 points or less remains intact. Meanwhile, look for USCs core of 4 and 5 star recruits on D, to stand tall and limit Fresno States offence to a minimal output . Early on in the season Defences have an edge on offences and that gives me credence in my under projection here in game 1 for both teams in this non conference battle. 

FRESNO ST is 7-0 UNDER in road games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.5 ppg going on the board. FRESNO ST is 6-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

USC is 18-6 L/24 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 with a combined average of 47.9 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

 Texas  upset Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, 28-21 and since than Longhorns nation has been standing proud. .  However, with  starting QB Ehlinger  now having to deal with three of his starting offensive linemen gone  and  current group RBs banged up in camp as per reports Im betting the sledding could be a lot tougher than many might expect.    On defence the Longhorns have to replace three starting defensive linemen, two LBs and both starting CBs.  I know that Texas will be motivated to honour former RB Cedric Benson who passed a couple of weeks ago in a motorcycle accident, but covering the number here could still prove difficult considering the alliterations  this  football program will have to endure here early in the season. Meanwhile, HC Skip  Holtz remains a very good coach and  operates and  recruits a never say die group of kids that have endured  five  1-point losses over the last three seasons. Im betting he once again makes life difficult for an opponent, and gets us the cover.  It must be noted that Texas has failed to cover 19 of their L/27 as non conference favs while Holtz on the other hand  thrives in the underdog role cashing  (49 of the L/63 times for a 77% conversion rate for bettors).Holtz is  also 34-16 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached since 1992. 

Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in August.Bulldogs are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 road games.

Play on LA Tech to cover 

LSU's Orgeron is a well liked coach,  but from a bettors perspective his backers may not be all that fond of   him considering his 0-4 ATS record in his last four non-conference home games, and his  1-4 ATS record as a favorite of 21 or more points. It must also be noted last season, against SE Louisiana a lower tier football team, the Bayou Bengals  looked very average and unmotivated. Today a under rated Georgia Southern team off a 10 win campaign must  not be underestimated in their abilities to find a way to cover here today vs a behemoth SEC foe.HC Chad Lunsfords reinstatement of the power running game, made GSouthern dangerous and nothing changes today. The Eagles are 3-0 ATS all time vs SEC and have covered 5 of their L/6 as 20 point or more underdogs. With Texas on board for Oregeron and company, the Tigers full attention, might be lacking making them unreliable favs here despite of public perceptions. 

LSU is 0-6 ATS in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on  Georgia Southern to cover 

Pittsburgh's QB Kenny Pickett is a veteran quarterback and under rated and , his receiving corps is of the top tier variety and wont be intimidated by Virginia's experienced D. Meanwhile, on my over rated charts,Cav QB Bryce Perkins is key here, as he and his team are expected by most pundits to win their conference this season. But today things wont come easily vs a well coached Panthers team that has won 4 straight in this series grabs the cash.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

UTSA has bigger and better athletes, and despite of what Incarnate Word was able to do in a lower tier division their out of their league ( co champions and undefated in San Antonio) and should be pounded by the Roadrunners as this tilt progresses. No one is going to take UIW for granted , thus Im expecting an all out effort by UTSA, which makes this an easy lay.

Play on UTSA to cover 

Lobos are in a transition season with new dynamics and schemes and are expected to possibly highlight four QBs today. Needless to say their cohesiveness could be tested. Meanwhile, the Sam Houston BearKats come in nationally ranked, 22nd in the preseason poll by Stats FCS, and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover here vs a team like New Mexico. 

Lobos are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.   Lobos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in August. Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Lobos are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Lobos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.v  Lobos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.

Play on Sam Houston to cover 

The public is all over Alabama but it must be noted that  HC Saban has been inconsistent as a large favorite  covering just 11 of 33 games when favored by 30 or more points. Meanwhile, Duke HC Cutcliffe is 15-3 SU lifetime in season openers with the three losses coming by an average of 5.56 ppg. 

 The Blue Devils return the top two rushers and the most experienced part  of their defense. abd look fairly solid and more than capable of being competitive. Meanwhile, Alabama loses Damien Harris and most of the offensive line and it must also be noted that this game is being played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, where  QB Tagovailoa had a bad game while looking uncomfortable playing on that surface ,converting just t 10-of-25 passes  for just  165 yards and 2 interceptions against Georgia in the SEC Championship game. Could this environment trigger a PTSD event? Im betting it does . 

DUKE is 6-0 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.DUKE is 24-8 ATS in games played on turf.

ALABAMA is 8-19 ATS  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992.DUKE is 28-13 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992.

Take the points with Duke to cover 

 Superdome - New Orleans, LA

The Mississippi State Bulldogs delivered  8 wins   last season and  ranked No. 1 in the nation in defence and this season Im betting their offence chips in and makes this side very under rated. Meanwhile, the Ragin Cajuns despite of a top tier recruiting class and success last season in a 7 win campaign, are over matched here today. The Cajuns might be out looking for revenge for a  56-10  smash down last season to the Bulldogs, but Im betting they will fail as they make it 36 straight losses to a SEC school. Note: UL-Lafayette are  an ugly 0-28 ATS in their last 28 SU home losses versus lined opponents.

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MISSISSIPPI ST) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry are 81-36 ATS L/27 seasons for a 69% covnersion rate for bettors.

Play on the Mississippi State Bulldogs to cover 

Toledo continues to recruit top tier offensive players as was  evident by  scoring at least 50 points in six games during their  2018 campaign, and something that will aid them covering here today . Meanwhile, Kentucky is a depleted team  with players going to the NFL and other departures that no longer make them a contender in the SEC.    Mark Stoops has his work cut out for him this season, and some serious regression is not out of the question. It must be noted as far as this matchup is involved the Wildcats are being over rated in my humble betting opinion. Note Kentucky is  1-7 ATS as home favourite the past two seasons, while the Rockets are 7-2 ATS  in road openers . The MAC owns a 9-0 ATS L/9 record  vs SEC  opposition. 

KENTUCKY is 0-6 ATS  in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (TOLEDO) - poor defense from last season - allowed 400 or more total yards/game, with 5 defensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 61-27 L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toledo Rockets to cover 

This bet is not so much about Lovie Smiths Illinois even though Im betting they will be significantly better this season, but this bet is rather about  the matchup discrepancies here today , that favor Illinois. The Zips have a completely new coaching staff, and only have a couple returning starters on the defensive side of the ball back,  and a new offensive scheme that will take time to be cohesive.I know the MAC has a reputation for doing well against the Big10 in the past, but today the Big 1o will dominate .

Illinois in their 4 wins last season averaged 39.5 ppg so they can score when in a groove and should prove even better this season. Overall from a historical standpoint it must also be noted  that Illini have won 21 straight home openers by an average of 24 points per game. 

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ILLINOIS) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry are 81-36 ATS  L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Illinois to cover 

Last season the Michigan State Spartans ranked 127th in scoring nationally  and put up an average of 8 ppg in their final 4 tilts. It was a frikin embarrassment. However, Im betting they will be improved this season , but tonight they might not show off their improved attack and playbook options  as the Spartys have a  reputation for staring slowly  failing to cover 4 of their L/5 openers and are also 0-6 ATS as home chalk of more than 17 points.  Meanwhile, Tulsa behind  head man Phil Montgomery have really been bitten the by the injury bug the last couple of seasons, but have remained fairly competitive  behind a under rated D as they have eight one-possession losses,  Note:The Golden Hurricane were ranked eighth in the country in pass defense last season. With alot of experience returning this season and Montgomerys need to post some wins to save his job Im betting on him pulling out all the stops this season. Considering  Tulsa  has covered 6 of their L/7 ATS as a under dog of 20 or more points they get my support here vs what we can usually count on to be a disinterested  Mark Dantonio group.

Play on the Tulsa Canes to cover 

Army had a tremendous season in 2018, and some regression must be expected this around especially with their two top Full Backs gone, and a new defensive coordinator in the fold . But hey Art Monkin has done a great job with the Black Knights and they should be fine this season. However today they go against a very under rated Rice squad with a huge amount of returning experience in the lineup, and with some luck the Owls won't be as injury prone as last season ie ( 4 QBS played last year). Army because of their recent success is now a public team but because of this we are getting a decent line to bet into here with the underdog, especially considering that I highly doubt that Army will open up their  playbook this week with Jim Harbaughs Michigan up next. I also expect the Knights may not play their starters late into this tilt, which gives credence to back door cover opportunities if need be. Note: Rice HC Bloomgren has said he has been preparing for Army's Triple option since last February. 

Rice has cashed 10 of their L/15 as 20 point or more dogs. Army has failed to cover 15 of their L/24 as DD favorites( 38%). Army is 4-11 ATS L/15 season openers. 

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 or more points (ARMY) - good defense from last season - allowed 315 or less total yards/game, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB, in the first two weeks of the season are 16-44 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against  73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Rice Owls to cover 

Texas State Im betting is a under rated commodity here in game 1 vs respected   Texas A&M football program However, this Bobcats team is loaded with experienced  players  with 19 returning starters and the O-Line completely intact.  Meanwhile,  the Aggies, despite of a decent season last year, have to now endure a new batch of players on defence, having to replace 6 of 7 players in the front 7, which will effect them here today. With Clemson up next for Texas A&M concentrating on this matchup, could be difficult. Texas State has also been solid as an underdog of 20 or more points cashing 5 of their L/6 opportunities, and Im betting they don't roll over so easily here, and find the way to get us a cover on a almost 5 TD spread.

Bobcats are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.Bobcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Aggies are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in August.Aggies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 Thursday games.

Play on Texas State to cover