At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (115) and the Minnesota Vikings (116). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-0) comes off a 5-11 campaign last season. Minnesota (0-0) also missed the playoffs with a 7-9 mark last year.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have a quarterback competition this preseason between Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock — although it is not clear how much of this opening preseason game will be dedicated to resolving this battle. Third-stringer Brett Rypien may get significant time in the second half of this game. I am not high on Lock and expect Bridgewater to win the job to then execute a ball-control offense where he is asked to not make mistakes to put the Denver defense in a position to dominate. Head coach Vic Fangio is on the hot seat in his third year as the Broncos head coach. We only have data from his rookie year when coaching the preseason with the exhibition season canceled last year. Denver averaged only 13.8 PPG in their five preseason games (with the Pro Football Hall of Fame Game) — but they allowed only 14.6 PPG. They did not score more than 15 points in four of those five preseason games. The Broncos held three of their five opponents to 10 points or less. Minnesota will likely have Kirk Cousins play a series or two to begin this game — but then it is a parade of inexperienced young quarterbacks. Rookie Kellen Mond will be given every opportunity to win the backup job after being drafted in the third round from Texas A&M. Former Iowa quarterback Nate Stanley may play in his first preseason game after being drafted in the seventh round by the Vikings in 2019. Jake Browning has yet to play in an NFL game in his third season in the league after playing at Washington. And the team signed journeyman Danny Etling on August 2nd after he was cut by Seattle a day earlier. He has yet to play in an NFL game after getting some snaps in the preseason as a rookie. Not much experience under center for this team. These two teams had a joint practice on Wednesday — and those opportunities allow for scripted situations which afford the coaching staff the chance to try some of the chocolate and strawberry flavors (without cameras) before going vanilla in the later preseason game between the two clubs on television. I have started tracking the data and the sample size is small — but the earlier numbers support the Under when two teams play an exhibition game after sharing joint practices. Just another piece of evidence.

FINAL TAKE: Zimmer’s teams at Minnesota have played 10 of their 14 preseason games Under the Total against AFC opponents. 10* NFLx Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (115) and the Minnesota Vikings (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (103) and the New England Patriots (104). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-0) opens up their exhibition season coming off a 7-9 campaign before giving the eventual Super Bowl champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers all they could handle in a 31-23 loss in the NFC Wildcard round. New England (0-0) was also 7-9 last season but they did not make the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both these teams had top-15 defenses last season but the starters on those units are not likely to get much action tonight. I expect more from the offenses in this game given the talent and experience on the quarterback depth charts for both teams. Ryan Fitzpatrick was signed by the Football Team to be the team’s starting quarterback this season. The 18-year veteran has 146 career starts under his belt. He is not likely to play much tonight but he could get a series or two to get acclimated against hostile competition operating offensive coordinator Scott Turner’s system that seeks to get the ball out quickly. Taylor Heinicke will likely play significant time tonight. He was the starting quarterback in the playoff game against the Buccaneers where he demonstrated he has intriguing potential. The Patriots’ defensive backups are not as tough a challenge as that Bucs defense was last January. Kyle Allen is competing with Heinicke for the backup job. He is familiar with Turner’s system after being drafted into the Carolina organization when Rivera was the head coach and Turner ran that offense. He has 17 career starts in the NFL after making four starts for Washington last season. Steven Montez may see some action as well. The former Colorado quarterback was on the practice squad last year. Rivera’s teams have played 18 of their last 26 preseason games Over the Total in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range — and his teams have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog up to three points. New England opened as a 2-point underdog but the betting market has moved them to be a small favorite in this game. The Patriots have played 13 of their last 17 preseason games Over the Total under head coach Bill Belichick when favored by up to a field goal. Cam Newton is expected to get the start tonight with him getting a few offensive series. The former Panthers quarterback had some superb moments as the New England starter last season before getting COVID — and he was never quite the same when he returned to the field. The Patriots have significantly upgraded the talent on wide receiver and tight end to help out the passing game. Rookie Mac Jones has looked good in the preseason — he should be able to move the ball when he gets his chance to run the offense. And then don’t underestimate what the veteran Brian Hoyer will be able to do against defensive players fighting for roster spots. Belichick loves Hoyer because he knows the offensive inside and out and does not make mistakes. He has 39 career starts under his belt.

FINAL TAKE: New England has played 14 of their last 22 preseason games at home Over the Total in the Belichick era with the Total set in the 35.5-42 range. Rivera’s teams at Carolina played 14 of their last 21 preseason games Over the Total when the number was in the 35.5 to 42 range. 10* NFLx Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (103) and the New England Patriots (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (901) and the San Diego Padres (902) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Ryan Weathers. THE SITUATION: Miami (47-67) has lost five games in a row with their 6-5 loss on the road to the Padres yesterday. San Diego (66-49) has won four straight games as well as six of their last eight.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing at least four games in a row. Miami has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 4 straight Overs after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Marlins have played 6 straight Overs on the road. They have also played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total as a money-line underdog. They give the ball to Alcantara who comes off his worst outing of the season where he was pummeled for seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work at Colorado on August 6th. For the season, the right-hander has a 6-10 record with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 23 starts. While I would typically expect a bounce-back performance after such a disappointing showing, my optimism is tempered by the deeper sabermetrics. Alcantara’s SIERA and xFIP both call for some regression at 4.09 and 3.89. Alcantara has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.58 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .195 — but those numbers rise to a 4.86 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and .267 opponent’s batten average in his 12 starts on the road. Miami has played 5 straight Overs with Alcantara facing a team from the NL West. He faces a hot-hitting Padres team even without an injured Fernando Tatis as they are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .293 Batting Average, .355 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .785. San Diego has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Padres have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning at least four in a row. San Diego has played 20 of their last 28 home games Over the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7-8.5. range. They counter with Weathers who is 4-4 this season with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 69 2/3 innings. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.94 and 4.88 moving forward. The left-hander has struggled at home where he has a 5.92 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .304. in 38 innings. His teams have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with Weathers making the start. He faces a Marlins team that has played 4 straight road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in August — and San Diego has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total in August. Lastly, the Over is 10-1-2 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams when playing in San Diego. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (901) and the San Diego Padres (902) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Ryan Weathers. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Taylor Widener and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: Arizona (35-76) won the opening game of this series last night by an 8-5 score. San Diego (62-49) has lost two straight and four of their last six.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks pulled off the upset last night priced in the +195 range — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after upsetting their last opponent priced at +130 or higher. Arizona has also played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after a victory. Additionally, the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games as a money-line underdog — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total as an underdog priced at +200 or higher. And in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record, the Over is 7-2-1 for the Diamondbacks. They give the ball to Taylor Widener who has a 1-1 record with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.46 in 9 starts this season. The right-hander has a 6.11 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in his six starts under the lights at night this season — and Arizona has played 4 of those games Over the Total. He faces Padres team that has played 5 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego has played 20 of their last 28 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. The Padres have played 6 straight Overs against teams who are not winning at least 40% of their games. They counter with Darvish who has a 7-6 record with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander had a 2.44 ERA after the month of June — but he was saddled with a 7.36 ERA in his five starts in July. San Diego has played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when priced at -200 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in San Diego. 10* MLB Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Taylor Widener and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (925) and the Cincinnati Reds (926) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (44-62) has lost six of their last eight games after their 7-3 loss at St. Louis on Sunday. Cincinnati (56-50) has won five of their last six games with their 7-1 victory in New York against the Mets on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-1-1 in the Twins’ last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Minnesota stays on the road where the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games — and the Over is 20-6-1 in their last 27 road games as an underdog. They give the ball to Maeda who has a 4-4 record with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The right-hander has been as good as ever at home where he owns a 2.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .250 — but those numbers rise to a 5.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .263 in his 11 starts on the road. Maeda’s teams have played 11 of their last 14 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog. He faces a Reds team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .293 batting average, .363 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .925. The Over is 4-1-2 in Cincinnati’s last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 3-0-2 in their last 5 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is 4-0-3 in the Reds’ last 7 games after a game where they scored at least five runs. After playing their last seven games on the road, they return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after being on the road for at least seven days. They counter with Mahle who has an 8-3 record with a 3.71 era and a 1.23 whip in 21 starts. The right-hander has struggled at home where he has an ERA of 6.07 and a WHIP of 1.48 with an opponent’s batting average of .269. Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total with Mahle on the mound.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .258 batting average, .326 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .807 during that span. The Twins have played 4 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 3-0-2 in Minnesota’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (925) and the Cincinnati Reds (926) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234201) and the USMNT (234202) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W4-D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Gold Cup with a 2-1 win against Canada on Thursday. The USMNT (W5-D0-L0) advanced to the Finals with their 1-0 victory against Canada in the Semifinals on Thursday. This match will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: El Tri will have revenge on their minds after losing to the United States in the CONCACAF Nations League by a 3-2 score on June 6th. The respective rosters of both teams were the proverbial A-teams — but much of the best offensive players from that match will not be on the pitch tonight. The top ten players from the American roster are now gone and training with their European professional teams. Manager Gregg Berhalter is using this tournament to build depth. Only Kellyn Acosta who started in the match with Mexico in June may be in the starting XI tonight. The Stars and Stripes have been very good with their defense in this competition. They have only conceded one goal in the second half in a blowout against Martinique. But six of their ten goals scored in this competition were against that Martinique side who were one of the minnows in this tournament. It is tough to score on the Americans when they are playing on home soil. In their last 14 matches in the United States, they have conceded only five goals with ten clean sheets. Since the loss to the Americans in June, Mexico has not conceded a goal until the 57th minute against a game Canada side on Thursday.

FINAL TAKE: The four combined goals in regulation in the CONCACAF Nations League Finals was an aberration. When these two teams played in the Finals of the 2019 Gold Cup, Mexico won by a 1-0 score. Expect another lower-scoring match. 10* CONCACAF Gold Cup Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234201) and the USMNT (234202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Vince Velasquez and Will Crowe. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (51-51) begins this series coming off an 11-8 victory against Washington yesterday. Pittsburgh (38-63) has lost four games in a row after a 12-0 loss to Milwaukee yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Philadelphia has played 6 straight Overs in the opening game of a new series. They send out Velasquez who is 3-5 with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 16 starts (20 games). The right-hander particularly struggles on the road where he has a 6.17 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 35 innings. The Phillies have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Velasquez pitching with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Philadelphia has also played 5 straight road games Over the Total when favored. Velasquez faces a Pirates team that has played 7 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 4-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is also 18-7-2 in the Pirates’ last 27 games after a loss. Furthermore, the Over is 5-0-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 6 games after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Pirates’ last 5 games at home. They counter with Crowe who is 2-5 with a 5.89 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 14 starts (15 games). The right-hander sees his WHIP rise to a 1.66 mark in his seven starts at home due in part to an opponent’s batting average of .281. His teams have played 7 straight Overs when Crowe is making a starting in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is hitting better as of late — they have a .259 Batting Average with a .337 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .810 in their last seven games. The Phillies have played 7 of their last 8 games on the road Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Vince Velasquez and Will Crowe. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Canada (234523) and Mexico in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Canada (W3-D0-L1) reached the Semifinals with their 2-0 victory against Costa Rica in the Quarterfinals on Sunday. Mexico (W3-D1-L0) advanced from the Quarterfinals with their 3-0 victory against Honduras on Saturday. This match is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Let’s not read too much into the offensive assault by El Tri against a La Selecta side that was missing a handful of players (including a few starters) from a COVID outbreak. El Tri has struggled to generate goals in this tournament with only four goals in their three Group Stage matches — including three goals against a Guatemala side that was one of the minnows in this tournament. Scoring looked to be the biggest challenge for manager Gerardo Martino’s side with Raul Jimenez training for his return to Wolverhampton in the English Premier League. Martino could have turned to Javier Hernandez — but his ongoing personal feud with Chicharito appears to have played a role in the 33-year old not being invited to compete. Perhaps Martino wanted to use this event to embrace his younger players? But the plan was thwarted somewhat in their opening when Napoli forward Hirving “Chucky” Lozano suffered a tournament-ending head injury. While the clinical scoring talent on this team is diminished, Mexico remains quite stout on defense. They have yet to surrender a goal in this tournament. El Tri has not allowed a goal in their last seven matches after losing to the USMNT in the Finals of the CONCACAF Nations Cup last month. Canada is far from full strength in its attack. Manager John Herdman has lost forwards Cyle Larin and Aho Akinola to injury — forcing him to call up Orlando City forward Tesho Akindele to the squad before the Quarterfinals. To compound matters, Vancouver White Caps forward Lucas Cavallini is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card of the tournament in the Quarterfinal against Costa Rica. The Canucks were already without their two best offensive players in Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David who resumed their training in Europe for their professional clubs, Bayern Munich and Lille. Herdman is likely to engage in defensive tactics with the hopes of eking out a low-scoring match — and he would happily take his chances with penalty kicks to resolve the match.

FINAL TAKE: Canada had allowed all three of their Group Stage opponents to score goals — but none of those teams registered more than once including the United States. They held Costa Rica to just five shots with none on target in what was likely a harbinger as to how they will attempt to play this match given their injuries. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Canada (234523) and Mexico (234524) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Qatar (234249) and the USMNT (234250) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Qatar (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Semifinals with their 3-2 win against El Salvador in the Quarterfinals on Saturday. The USMNT (W4-D0-L0) reached the Semifinals with their 1-0 win against Jamaica on Sunday. This match will be played at Q2 Stadium in Austin, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Qatar raced out to a 3-0 lead against El Salvador by the 55th minute of their match on Saturday — but they looked shaky on defense the rest of the way after allowing Joaquin Rivas to score twice in the five minute span before hanging on to win the match for the remaining 22 or so minutes. The Maroon was also exposed on defense by Haiti who rallied three times against them before both teams settled for a 3-3 draw in the Group Stage. Qatar has shut out their other two opponents in this tournament — and they registered clean sheets in six of their seven matches when winning the Asian Cup in 2019. So, what gives? The defining difference appears to be when manager Felix Sanchez’s team plays quality competition. In their last five matches against teams ranked in FIFA’s Top-50, Qatar has conceded at least one goal in six of those contests — this includes four friendlies and three matches in the Copa America 2019. Even in their 2-0 shutout win against Honduras in the Group Stage, they benefited from play a side without their best striker Alberth Eliss to injury before Romell Quioto left the match with an injury of his own. The USMNT ranks 20th in the world by FIFA. They have scored nine times in their four matches. The Stars and Stripes has scored in nine straight Gold Cup Semifinal matches — and they have scored at least two goals in six of their last eight Gold Cup Semifinal contests. While the Americans have conceded only once in this tournament, they will face their most potent attack tonight from a Qatar side that leads the tournament with 12 goals. It would be a mistake to underestimate the Maroon who are highly committed to their national team in preparation of their hosting the World Cup to close out 2022. Qatar was supposed to play in the more challenging Copa America this summer before a COVID outbreak changed their plans to get invited to this event.

FINAL TAKE: Both teams are used to fast starts — and that dictates tactics in the Knockout Stage. Qatar has scored in the first 25 minutes in three straight matches. The United States scored their first goal in the first 15 minutes in all three of their Group Stage matches. 10* CONCACAF Gold Cup Thursday Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the match between Qatar (234249) and the USMNT (234250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (905) and the Chicago Cubs (906) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Kyle Hendricks. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (51-48) begins this series coming off a 10-6 loss to St. Louis yesterday. Chicago (49-51) has won two of their last three games after a 5-1 win against Arizona on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They give the ball to Miley who has an 8-4 record with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 17 starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.52 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in eight starts as compared to his more modest 2.91 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and .266 opponent’s batting average in nine starts at home in the Great American Ballpark. His teams have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when he is pitching on the road with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He should thrive against this Cubs team that is scoring only 4.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .209 batting average, .279 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .661. The Under is also 25-12-2 in the Cubs’ last 39 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win. Additionally, the Cubs have played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs. The Under is also 9-2-1 in Chicago’s last 12 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Hendricks who has a 12-4 record with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 20 starts this season. After a slow start where he was saddled with a 7.54 ERA, he has since settled in with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in his last 15 starts. In his last four starts at home at Wrigley Field, Hendricks has a 1.48 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. The Cubs have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with Hendricks on the hill. He faces a Reds team that scores 4.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .237 Batting Average, .321 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .675. Cincinnati has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing in Chicago — and these two teams have played their last 4 meetings Under the Total. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (905) and the Chicago Cubs (906) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Kyle Hendricks. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-28) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 123-119 upset loss at home to Milwaukee as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Milwaukee (61-33) can win the NBA Championship tonight with their 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The high-scoring game I expected for Game Four was a game late. The Suns not only blew a 16-point lead at the end of the first quarter but also a 55.2% clip from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They made 13 of their 19 shots from behind the arc for a 68% shooting percentage of their 3s. But Phoenix allowed Milwaukee to make 57.5% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 25 games. Chris Paul declared after their Game One victory that they want to play with pace in this series. In hindsight, that appears to be a mistake. The Bucks are winning this series with rebounding and transition points — and more possessions fuel that edge for them. I will not be surprised if the Suns look to slow the pace of this game down to take the advantage of the veteran leadership Paul provides them in close games. As it is, Phoenix has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Suns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. They go back on the road where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games as an underdog. Milwaukee’s 57.5% shooting from the field was the best shooting effort in their last 87 contests going all the way back to January 4th. It was the second-best offensive performance of the season. They nailed 14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc. I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods — especially with the pressure of closing out the series to win the title. These Game Sixes are tricky for a home team with a 3-2 series lead. While they have a bird in the hand on a potental seventh game, there often is stress and anxiety of feeling the urgency to end things in front of their home fans. The Bucks should play better on defense after letting Phoenix make more than 50% of their shots in two straight games — and they have played all 3 games Under the Total this season after allowing their last two opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. The Under is also 4-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. They return home where the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams when playing in Milwaukee. 25* NBA Tuesday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (969) and the Detroit Tigers (970) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Casey Mize. THE SITUATION: Texas (35-58) has lost five straight games after their 10-0 loss at Toronto yesterday. Detroit (43-51) has won three in a row after a 7-0 victory against Minnesota yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Texas has also played 13 of their last 16 opening games to a new series Over the Total. They give the ball to Gibson who is 6-1 with a 2.29 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 17 starts. The sabermetrics call for regression given his SIERA and xFIP that project an ERA of 4.16 and 3.89 moving forward this season. And while the right-hander has thrived at home where he has a 1.77 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .201, those numbers rise to a 2.93 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and .222 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. Gibson’s teams have played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total on the road with him making the start. The Over is 11-3-1 in the Rangers’ last 15 games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Detroit has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Tigers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. And while Detroit has not allowed more than four runs in three straight games, they have then played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games. They counter with Casey Mize who is 5-5 with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The sabermetrics call for regression with this right-hander as well. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.29 and 4.21 respectively moving forward. Mize has not been as effective at home either where he has a 4.15 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .260 in 7 starts. Detroit has played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with the number in the 9-10.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 5-2-1 in the Rangers’ last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (969) and the Detroit Tigers (970) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Casey Mize. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (927) and the New York Yankees (928) listing both starting pitchers Martin Perez and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: Boston (56-37) has lost five of their last seven games after a 3-1 loss to the Yankees in a rain-shortened six-inning game yesterday. New York (47-44) has won six of its last nine contests.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 5-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 7 games after a loss — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after a loss. Additionally, Boston has played 4 straight Unders after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 6 games on the road. Martin Perez makes the start with his 7-5 record along with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in 17 starts. The left-hander struggles at home at Fenway Park with the Green Monster where he has a 5.80 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .326. But when Perez pitches on the road, he has a 2.04 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in 7 starts. His teams have played 9 straight Unders when he is pitching on the road priced in the +125 to -125 price range. He faces a depleted Yankees’ lineup hit by COVID that has Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela — and Luke Voit hit the disabled list earlier this week with a knee injury. New York is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .204 batting average, .287 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .627. New York has played two straight Unders — and they have then played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. The Yankees bullpen got yesterday off with Gerrit Cole pitching all six innings — and they pitched only three innings on Friday. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when their bullpen has not pitched more than three innings in two straight games. They counter with Taillon who is 4-4 with a 4.90 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 17 starts. The right-hander has been much better at home in Yankee Stadium where he has a 3.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and .223 opponent’s batting average in 10 starts as opposed to his 7.20 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and .298 opponent’s batting average on the road. His teams have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when he is pitching as a favorite priced up to -150. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .238 batting average, .308 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .731. Boston has managed only five hits in each of their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not generating more than five base hits in two straight games. The Red Sox have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has played 5 straight Unders against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams from the AL East — and the Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Yankee Stadium. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (927) and the New York Yankees (928) listing both starting pitchers Martin Perez and Jameson Taillon. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (509) and the Phoenix Suns (510) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (60-33) has won the last two games of this series to even things at 2-2 after their 109-103 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Phoenix (65-27) has lost four of their last eight games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks rallied to win Game Four despite allowing the Suns to make 51.3% of their shots. That was the worst defensive effort in Milwaukee’s last 15 games. The Bucks neutralized Phoenix’s shooting edge by creating more scoring opportunities from offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. Milwaukee held a +12 edge in turnovers by forcing 17 turnovers and only coughing the ball up five times. The Bucks have played 4 straight Unders after having a turnover edge of +10 or better in their last game. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. Now Milwaukee goes on the road where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. The Under is also 9-3-2 in the Bucks’ last 14 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games overall. Phoenix lost Game Four despite that 51.3% field goal percentage which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Suns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Phoenix did not cover the point spread in their last two losses in Milwaukee. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two in a row — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: I thought both teams would enjoy sharp offensive games in Game Four — and I was wrong on that front. The Suns’ 51.3% shooting percentage disguised their weak 7 of 23 (30%) clip from behind the arc. Milwaukee made only 40.2% of their shots — but they were saved by Phoenix being sloppy with the basketball and too often playing out of control. The Suns were simply playing too fast — and their likely correction to limit the turnovers that killed them is to slow the pace. With the winner of Game Five seizing control of the series, I expect teams to be nervy. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 Game Fives Under the Total. With the number still in the high-210s, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (509) and the Phoenix Suns (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the USMNT (234257) and Martinique (234258) in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: The USMNT (W1-D0-L0) comes off a 1-0 win against Haiti in their opening match in this competition on Sunday. Martinique (W0-D0-L1) looks to rebound from a 4-1 loss to Canada in their opening match in Group B play on Sunday. This match will be played at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manager Gregg Berhalter chose an inexperienced starting XI on Sunday — and he will likely continue with that approach tonight against the small Caribbean nation. Berhalter’s goal is to help establish more reliable depth for the Stars and Stripes to call upon as they continue their World Cup qualifying matches for Qatar next fall. And the teams’ best players like attacking midfielder Christian Pulisic, striker Josh Sargent, and midfielder Giovanni Reyna are not on the roster given their professional responsibilities for their European professional league training. This roster only began training together last week — so chemistry and cohesion in the attack may take some time to develop. The Stars and Stripes loan goal on Sunday was from defender Sam Vines may his first start in international competition — and it was against a shorthanded Haiti side missing five players after a COVID outbreak on the team. Attacker Paul Arriola had to leave that match with a hamstring injury after 14 minutes into the contest — so I really do not know about the attacking talent that Berhalter will have at his disposal. Berhalter wants his team to press and control possession — and this helps for them to overwhelm lesser opponents. They have now generated clean sheets in seven of their last ten matches on home soil — and they have conceded only four times in those ten matches. Martinique scored first in their 4-1 loss to Canada but that was from a miscue by the Canucks that afforded Emmanuel Riviere that scoring chance. Les Matinino was playing for the first time since November of 2019 given the pandemic and their limited resources. In their final two home-and-home matches against Honduras in the CONCACAF Nations League in the fall of 2019, they only scored one time — but they conceded just twice. Martinique’s loss to Canada was just their second defeat in their last five matches — and they only lost that one match to Honduras in their five CONCACAF Nations League contests. Manager Mario Bocaly will have his team play cautiously — and what his team lacks in international competition, they make up for in cohesion since most play domestically in Martinique.

FINAL TAKE: Canada is a potent attacking side — so the four goals that Les Matinino allowed may speak more about the Canadiens than it does about Martinique’s defensive quality. They should play better with a match now under their belt against hostile competition for the first time in 20 months. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group B Total of the Year Under the Total in the match between the USMNT (234257) and Martinique (234258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234249) and Guatemala (234250) on Group A play in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W0-D1-L0) comes off a 0-0 draw Trinidad and Tobago in their opening match on Saturday. Guatemala (W0-D0-L1) lost to El Salvador in their opening match by a 2-0 score on Sunday. This match will be played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Mexico peppered Trinidad and Tobago with 30 shots in that opening match on Saturday — but only seven were on target. Manager Gerardo Martino lost one of his best offensive players in that match with Hirving “Chucky” Lozano suffering a head injury that will keep him out for the rest of the tournament. El Tri is already without their best striker in Raul Jimenez who remains out after suffering a significant head injury playing for Wolverhampton in the English Premier League in the fall. Mexico may not have the firepower — and the cohesion in their attack — to score more than three goals in this match. But El Tri will likely earn their fifth straight clean sheet. Mexico has not allowed a shot on target in three straight matches. Guatemala was given a second chance to compete in this tournament when Curacao had to drop out the day before the event started because of a COVID outbreak. Los Chapines had lost their final qualifying match to compete in this tournament in a heartbreaking 10-9 loss via penalty kicks after a 1-1 score with Guadeloupe on July 6th. Guatemala played El Salvador tough on Sunday with that match being scoreless until La Selecta scored their first goal in the 81st minute. Interim manager Rafael Loredo will have his team park the bus — this team had not allowed a team to score more than one goal against them since a 2-0 loss to Paraguay in June 2019. Furthermore, Los Chapines have allowed only three goals in their last 12 matches across all competitions. They have a good goalkeeper in Nicholas Hagen who has five clean sheets himself in 2021.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in a friendly on September 30th with Mexico winning by a 3-0 score. That seems the worst-case scenario score for the Guatemalans who have gained in chemistry and cohesion from their summer experiences. El Tri has a sketchy recent past in second-round matches in the Group Stage of the Gold Cup with only one win and two 0-0 draws. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group A Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234249) and Guatemala (234250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Milwaukee Bucks (508) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-26) looks to bounce-back from their 120-100 loss on the road to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (59-33) has three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Suns scored their fewest points on Sunday in their last five games. After scoring 102 points in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers, they responded by scoring 130 to close out that series in Game Six. Chris Paul and Devin Booker combined to make only two of their 11 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. Phoenix has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Suns have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. Paul commented after Game One that his team wants to push the pace — and they should be rested with the extra day off between games. The Over is 47-23-1 Phoenix’s last 71 games when playing with two days of rest. Furthermore, the Over is 12-5-1 in the Suns’ last 18 games on the road — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games as an underdog. Phoenix has also played 32 of their last 52 games Over the Total when the Total is set at 220 or higher. Milwaukee has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a win on their home court — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win at by double-digits. Returning home was what the Bucks players not named Giannis Antetokounmpo needed to jump-start their shooting. Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday combined to make 14 of their 28 shots including 8 of their 17 shots from behind the arc. The Over is 3-0-1 in Milwaukee’s last 4 games at home against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Over is also 16-4-2 in the Bucks’ last 22 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 5 straight Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 20 or more points. The Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 games between these two teams — and I expect this to be the wildest game yet in this series since it remains critical for the Bucks to win the game. 25* NBA Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Milwaukee Bucks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (505) and the Milwaukee Bucks (506) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-25) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 118-108 win against the Bucks as a 4.5-point spread favorite on Thursday. Milwaukee (58-33) returns home having lost three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee only made 45.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Bucks made only 9 of their 31 shots from behind the arc. Now Milwaukee returns home where they are making 48.6% of their shots including 38.2% of their 3-point shots. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday struggled in Game Two as they combined to make only 12 of their 37 shots from the field. Both players — along with the Bucks’ role players — usually play better back on their home court. Milwaukee has played 30 of their last 45 games Over the Total after losing their last two games by double-digits on the road. They have played 37 of their last 55 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. Phoenix has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and the Over is 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a point spread win. The Suns have also played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Phoenix has played 30 of their last 45 games Over the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. Now the Suns go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 22 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 16-4-1 in Milwaukee’s last 21 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (505) and the Milwaukee Bucks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between England (234125) and Italy (234126) in the Finals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W5-D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Euro 2020 with their 2-1 win against Denmark on Wednesday. Italy (W5-D1-L0) advanced to the Finals with their 4-2 penalty kick shootout win against Spain that resolved their 1-1 draw after 120 minutes of play on Tuesday. This match will be played at Wembley Field in London.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While some have criticized manager Gareth Southgate for his starting XI selections, I think he has been brilliant in shaping this talented roster into a defensive-first group. Defensive tactics tend to be rewarded in international tournaments — and defense has been the Achilles’ heel for this group in their recent major tournaments. The Three Lions have only conceded one goal in this tournament — and they have yet to concede a Big Chance representing a scoring opportunity with a 35% or higher expected rate of return. They have allowed only 3.59 expected goals in this tournament which is the lowest mark in the event. After allowing a goal to Denmark in the 30th minute, England locked down the Danes to just two shots and a mere 0.3 expected goals in the second half. Southgate has been criticized for not doing enough to get the English attack going — and he is likely to continue to engage in conservative tactics in this championship match. Italy entered this tournament with seven straight clean sheets — and they would go on to hold their opponents scoreless for over 1000 consecutive minutes before Austria scored against them in the Round of 16. The Azzurri have allowed only three goals in this event — and their 6.01 expected goals allowed is the second-lowest in the field to England. And while the Italians have scored 12 goals, they have managed only four goals in their three Knockout Stage matches.

FINAL TAKE: This should be a cagey, low-scoring match. 10* Euro 2020 Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the match between England (234125) and Italy (234126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Argentina (234429) and Brazil (234430) in the Finals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Argentina (W4-D2-L0) advanced to the Finals of this tournament with their 3-2 victory from penalty kicks against Colombia on Tuesday after that match ended in a 1-1 score after regulation time. Brazil (W5-D1-L0) defeated Peru by a 1-0 score to reach the Finals on Monday. This match will be played at Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These are the two highest-scoring teams in the tournament — and while both sides also have surrounded the fewest goals in this event, neither has played an opponent as explosive as they will tonight. I think both defenses will be exposed. Argentina only scored once against a counter-attacking Colombia side in the Semifinals — but they generated a healthy 2.45 expected goals (xG). La Albiceleste has scored 11 times in this event — but their xG rises to 15.92 for a robust 2.66 xG per match average. Lionel Messi leads the way with four goals and five assists. He is averaging 1.18 expected goal involvement per 90 minutes. I do not see Brazil blanking the Barcelona star even though he has yet to score a goal in his career against them. He has a good thing going with Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez who has scored in three straight matches. The Argentina defense is a bit shaky especially with the aging Nicolas Otamendi at center back. This is the first match in this tournament that La Albiceleste will be playing a team that is happy to play on their front foot, rather than embrace a cautious counterattack. Brazil deserved more in their 1-0 win against Peru after generating 2.57 xG. The Selecao has scored 12 times in this event while producing 17.85 xG for a 2.93 xG per 90 minutes average. Throw out the 1-1 draw with Ecuador since their manager, Tite rested starters in that third Group Stage match. In Brazil’s other five matches, they generated at least 2.5 xG in each contest. And while the Selecao has only conceded two goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) is more than twice that at 5.15.

FINAL TAKE:  While finals can often evolve into cagey, lower-scoring affairs, I suspect that this match may be lively. Messi is in as top-notch form as he has ever been playing for his national team — and he has a younger and more athletic supporting cast than he has had in recent years. Brazil is a powerhouse that has underachieved its metrics despite averaging 2.0 Goals-Per-Game. 25* Copa America Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Argentina (234429) and Brazil (234430). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (975) and the Houston Astros (976) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: New York (95-42) won the opening game of this series last night with a 4-0 victory. Houston has a two-game losing streak after winning their previous six games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. New York has also won 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total on the road after winning four of their last five games. Additionally, New York has won 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Cole gets the start with his 8-4 record along with a 2.91 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 17 starts. But the right-hander has struggled since MLB cracked down on the use of illegal substances. Cole’s spin rate is way down — and so are his numbers. In his last six starts since the start of June, Cole has a 5.00 ERA with only 38 strikeouts in 36 innings of work. And his teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when he is pitching in July. Houston has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Astros score 5.5 Runs-Per-Game with a .276 batting average, a .386 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .813. Houston has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while the Astros have played three straight Unders, they have played 6 straight Overs after playing at least three straight Unders. Houston has played 25 of their last 35 home games Over the Total with the number set at 7 to 8.5. They counter with Greinke who is 8-2 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home in Minute Maid Park where he has been saddled with a 5.26 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .296 opponent’s batting average. The Astros have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Greinke on the hill — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with Greinke pitching at night. He faces a Yankees team that is scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (975) and the Houston Astros (976) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Colombia (234425) and Peru (234426) in the Third Place Playoff Match in Copa America. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W2-D1-L3) lost a heartbreaker in the Semifinals of the Copa America in a 3-2 loss to Argentina in the shootout after a 1-1 score after regulation time on Tuesday. Peru (W3-D1-L2) lost a narrow 1-0 loss to Brazil in their Semifinals match on Monday. This match will be played at the Estadio Nacional de Brasilia in Brasilia, Brazil.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With the only stakes for his match being bragging rights, expect a more open contest between these two teams that tend to prefer to counter-attack. These consolation Third Place matches tend to be higher-scoring. Four of the last six Third Place contests in the Copa America has seen at least three combined goals scored. After a slow start to the tournament, the Colombians have steadily improved. They only lost 2-1 to Brazil in their final Group Stage match. They were fortunate to only allow one goal to Argentina on Tuesday despite giving up 2.45 expected goals (xGA). This team had to adjust to being without their best player, James Rodriguez after the Everton midfielder ended his English Premier League campaign with an injury that kept him out of his last two matches. While they have scored only four goals, they have an expected goals mark of 6.89. Two of their last four matches have seen at least three combined goals scored. Peru has been leaky on defense — they have surrendered 11 goals with the expected goals even worse with a 13.47 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. Brazil generated 2.57 expected goals in their Semifinals match on Monday but could only score one time. Los Incas were blanked in their two matches against tournament favorite Brazil — but they have scored at least two goals in three of their other four matches. Four of their six matches in this event have seen at least three combined goals.

FINAL TAKE: Colombia will have a motivational edge for this contest after losing to Peru in the Group Stage of this event on June 20th by a 2-1 score. Look for another higher-scoring match. 10* Copa America Friday Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the match between Colombia (234425) and Peru (234426). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Phoenix Suns (504) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-32) looks to bounce back from their 118-105 loss on the road to the Suns as a 5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (64-25) has won three of their last four games to take a 1-0 lead in the series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Despite the 11-point loss, the Bucks nailed 16 of their 36 shots from behind the arc for a 44.4% shooting clip. Milwaukee entered the NBA Finals making only 31.1% of their 3-point shots — and they are hitting just 34% of their 3-pointers in the playoffs on the road. The Bucks have played three straight Overs — and they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. Additionally, the Under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, Milwaukee has played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series. Phoenix has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing their second game in seven days. Milwaukee allowed Phoenix to make 46.6% of their shots, the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. Even worse, the Suns generated an Offensive Rating of 118.0 in that game which was the fourth-highest opponent’s Offensive Rating Milwaukee has allowed in this postseason. Mike Budenholzer is every pundit’s whipping boy for not making the adjustments they see (or not doing it quick enough) — but the benefit of a seven-game playoff series is to experiment with different defensive schemes. What the Bucks’ pick-and-roll defense places as their top priority is not foul — not only to protect Antetokounmpo to keep him on the court but to also not give up easy free throws. This consideration is rarely mentioned by the ankle-biters. Budenholzer may be content to let Chris Paul once again settle for mid-range jumpers — the shot that these same-ankle bitters consider the worst shot in basketball since it is not a 3-pointer nor a high-percentage shot at the rim. Or, Budenholzer may have defensive stalwart Jrue Holiday play against Paul rather than Devin Booker in Game One. Or, Budenholzer may go back to the drop defense against the pick-and-roll with Brook Lopez playing a little bit higher up the court to challenge the mid-range shot — this was very effective against Trae Young after Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals. I am not sure what Budenholzer will do while acknowledging that he is a far better defensive coach than me (and his critics). The Bucks should commit fewer personal fouls tonight — the Suns got to the free-throw line 26 times and made 25 of those shots from the charity stripe. Milwaukee’s opponent’s free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio of 16.3% is the lowest in the NBA. Phoenix generated a 29.6% FTA: FGA ratio in Game One — and they average 19 free throw attempts per game. The Suns will not likely have a +16 point edge from the free-throw line tonight. Having Holiday defend Paul may be the preferred adjustment for Budenholzer since Booker’s play has declined a bit as the postseason has moved on. The young star is averaging 23.3 PPG on just 35% shooting from the field and a 22% mark from behind the arc in his last six games.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is supported by an empirical angle that has been 68% effective over the last five seasons. In games involving two teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range when just one of the teams is playing their second game in five days (both Milwaukee and Phoenix trigger this angle), the game finished Under the Total in 91 of these last 134 situations. 10* NBA Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Phoenix Suns (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (31) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (32) in Game Five of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Montreal (37-28-12) extended this series to a fifth game with their 3-2 victory in overtime on Monday. Tampa Bay (50-20-7) returns home where they can still lift the Stanley Cup tonight with their 3-1 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Canadiens have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after winning a game in overtime — including playing 7 of their 9 games this season Under the Total after a win in OT. Montreal has also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 22 of their last 32 games on the road Under the Total after a victory by just one goal. Carey Price regained the form he had in the first three games of this series by stopping 32 of the 34 shots he faced. The Under is 3-1-3 in the Canadiens’ last 7 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Montreal goes back on the road where the Under is 3-1-2 in their last 6 games away from home. Tampa Bay has played 15 of their last 22 playoff games Under the Total when playing at home with a lead in the playoff series. The Lightning have also played 18 of their last 25 playoff games Under the Total in Game Fives. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed three goals on the 21 shots he faced. He should play better tonight back at home where he had a 1.75 Goals-Against-Average and a .936 save percentage in the regular season. He has a 1.99 GAA and a .935 save percentage in this postseason. And in his six previous starts in these playoffs after a loss, Vasilevskiy has stopped 152 of the 160 shots he faced for a .950 save percentage with three shutouts.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 24 of their last 32 playoff games Under the Total with the opportunity to close out the series. The Under is 25-8-9 in Montreal’s last 42 playoff games as an underdog. 10* NHL Wednesday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (31) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (32). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Denmark (234121) and England (234122) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W4-D1-L0) reached the Semifinals of the Euro 2020 with their 4-0 victory against Ukraine on Saturday. Denmark (W3-D0-L2) has won three straight matches after their 2-1 win against the Czech Republic on Saturday. This match will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Three Lions come off their best effort of the tournament with their 4-0 victory against Ukraine. England limited Ukraine to just 0.26 expected goals while producing their fifth straight clean sheet in this event. The defensive effort for manager Gareth Southgate has been almost flawless. They have given up the second-fewest shot-creating actions — and they have allowed the third-fewest passes into the penalty area. While England Soccer Twitter bashes Southgate for not playing more of the bigger names on the roster that put up big scoring numbers in the English Premier League, he has emphasized defensive tactics first (and second) while being able to rely on an embarrassment of riches of attacking talent if his team needs to score goals late in the match. The Three Lions get Bukayo Saku back from a knock that kept him out of the Quarterfinals match — the 19-year-old Arsenal midfielder is a good defensive player who offers speed on the outside. Southgate’s decision to play Saku instead of Jadon Sancho is a likely tell that more cautionary tactics are on the horizon for England. He will save Sancho, Jack Grealish, and Marcus Rashford for extra time and penalty kicks. Denmark has been most impressive on the defensive end of the pitch with its shape and discipline. They limited the powerful Belgium team to only six shots. They have only given up two goals in their last three matches — and while they have conceded five goals overall, their expected goals allowed drops to just 4.83 xGA. Denmark has scored 11 goals in their last four matches — but only that Belgium match was against a team that was expected to make a deep run in the Knockout Stage.

FINAL TAKE: Expect a cagey, low-scoring match since neither side will want to concede the first goal. 10* Euro 2020 Wednesday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the match between Denmark (234121) and England (234122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Phoenix Suns (502) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-31) has won two in a row and four of their last five after their 118-107 upset win in Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday to close out that series in six games. Phoenix (63-25) comes off a 130-103 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite last Wednesday to win that series in six games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo for this game although he has been upgraded to questionable with the knee injury that kept him out of the final two games of that series. The Bucks won both games without Antetokounmpo — but this team could be in for a letdown now. The Bucks have played 34 of their last 54 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least 10 points. And while Game Six with the Hawks finished Over the 218 point Total, Milwaukee has then played 29 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Bucks have covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They go back on the road where the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games when playing teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 opening games in a new playoff series Under the Total. Phoenix has played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division opponent. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. The Suns made 56.4% of their shots to close out their series with the Clippers last Wednesday — that was the best shooting effort in their last 40 games.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 19th in Milwaukee with Phoenix upsetting the Bucks, 128-127, as a 3-point underdog. The Bucks have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home court — and they have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home underdog. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Phoenix Suns (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Italy (234117) and Spain (234118) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Italy (W5-D0-L0) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 2-1 win against Belgium on Friday. Spain (W3-D2-L0) defeated Switzerland by a 3-1 margin in the penalty kick shootout after that match was tied 1-1 after extra time on Friday. This match will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Italian National Team has long had the identity of being a defensive-oriented team — but manager Roberto Mancini has opened things up with his team this summer. The Azzurri have scored 11 goals in their five matches — and their expected goals of 11.27 indicate that they are meeting likely expectations regarding their scoring output. The Italians have scored at least two goals in four of their five matches. They lead all teams in this tournament in shot-creating actions. And while Italy had been riding a streak of over 1000 minutes without conceding a goal before Austria scored against them in the 114th minute in their Round of 16, the fact is that the Azzurri has allowed goals in their last two matches. In hindsight, perhaps the Italian defense was overrated a bit after a relatively easy group that included Turkey, Wales, and a solid Switzerland side. Italy conceded 1.86 expected goals against a Belgium team that was without Eden Hazard. Spain has scored 12 goals in their five matches — and their expected goals of 17.58 are most in the tournament. La Roja leads all teams in touches in the opponent’s penalty area, completed passes, and pass accuracy — and they are second in the event in shot-creating actions (to Italy). The Spanish defense has been shaky — they have allowed five goals in their last three matches. La Roja has conceded five goals in this tournament but their expected goals allowed rises to 7.50 xGA.

FINAL TAKE: The Italy backline lost one of its key players with left back Leonardo Spinazzola rupturing his Achilles’ tendon in the second half of the match with Belgium. These two teams have had the top two attacks in this event — and they will both play aggressively. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Euro 2020 Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Italy (234117) and Spain (234118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (913) and the Minnesota Twins (914) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Bailey Ober. THE SITUATION: Chicago (49-34) has lost two games in a row after their 6-5 loss at Detroit yesterday. Minnesota (34-48) snapped a five-game losing streak with a 6-2 win at Kansas City yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The White Sox have played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 18 road games Over the Total when favored. They give the ball to Cease who is 7-3 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 16 starts. The right-hander thrives at home where he has a 1.81 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .190 — but those numbers skyrocket to a 6.08 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and a .270 opponent’s batting average in his eight starts on the road. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Cease on the hill. He faces a Twins team that has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a win by four or more runs. The Over is also 19-7-3 in the Twins’ last 29 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest — and the Over is 20-5-1 in their last 26 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Bailey Ober pitches for Minnesota tonight — he is 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in six starts. He has a 6.75 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .316 in his three starts at home. The Over is 20-8-2 in the Twins’ last 30 home games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total as an underdog. The White Sox have played 6 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 straight Overs against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has won the last four meetings between these two teams — and the Twins have played 7 straight games Over the Total when playing with revenge against a team that has beaten them at least four times in a row. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (913) and the Minnesota Twins (914) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Bailey Ober. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Peru (234417) and Brazil (234418) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Peru (W3-D1-L1) reached the Semifinals of the Copa America 2021 by defeating Paraguay in the penalty shootout by a 4-3 score after that game ended in regulation at 3-3. Brazil (W4-D1-L0) defeated Chile in the Quarterfinals by a 1-0 score. This match will be played at the Olympic Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These two teams played in their opening match in Group B play on June 17th — and Brazil scored four times in the 4-0 victory. Peru lacks talent on its backline. They have surrendered 10 goals in their five matches — and the expected goals allowed are 10.9 xGA. What was troubling about their Quarterfinals match with Paraguay was they surrendered their final two goals despite playing with a man advantage in the second half. La Blanquirroja is last of the eight teams to make the Quarterfinals in allowing shot creation actions in the final third of the pitch. Brazil only scored one goal in their Quarterfinals match with Chile but they were playing almost half that match down a man after Gabriel Jesus’ ill-advised feet-first leap with his cleats earned him a well-deserved red card at the 48th minute. Jesus is suspended for this match — which may be addition by subtraction given all the depth the Selecao has in their attack. Brazil has scored 11 times in their five matches — and their expected goals rise to 15.01 xG. They are second in the tournament for most passes into their opponent’s penalty area — and they lead all teams for touches in the final third. Neymar is averaging 0.92 expected goals per 90 minutes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in Copa America 2019 final with Brazil winning by a 3-1 score. Expect a similar result tonight. Brazil has too much scoring firepower — and they will want to put on a show in front of their home fans. 25* Copa American Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Peru (234417) and Brazil (234418). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (979) and the New York Yankees (980) listing both starting pitchers Corey Oswalt and Nestor Cortes. THE SITUATION: The Mets (43-36) won the opening game of today’s doubleheader by a 10-5 score. The Yankees (41-41) have lost three in a row and seven of their last eight.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is now 36-17-4 in the Mets’ last 57 road games against teams with a winning record. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the second game of a doubleheader. They will use Corey Oswalt as their starting pitcher after he had a 4.85 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 13 innings last year. The right-hander has made two appearances this season with a 1.42 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He likely will not pitch more than one time around the Yankees’ order so the bullpen will be asked to pitch at least half this game. The Mets’ bullpen has a 5.06 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP when pitching on the road — and in their last seven games, they have posted a 6.48 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. The Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 second games of a doubleheader. The Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games when favored. They counter with Nestor Cortes who has a 1.02 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings this season. This will be his third career start. While the left-hander is pitching well, both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 2.97 and 3.09 moving forward. He is not like to pitch more than two or three innings either. The Yankees’ bullpen entered the day with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in the last seven days — and that was before they gave up six runs in the top of the seventh (and final) inning in Game One.

FINAL TAKE: It was Aroldis Chapman who blew the save earlier today as he entered the 7th inning with a 5-4 lead. Manager Aaron Boone is unlikely to call on him for the nightcap. The Mets have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB NY Mets-NY Yankees ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (979) and the New York Yankees (980) listing both starting pitchers Corey Oswalt and Nestor Cortes. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (971) and the Kansas City Royals (972) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Brad Keller. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (33-48) has lost five games in a row after dropping Game Two of this series yesterday by a 6-3 score. Kansas City (35-47) has won two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 20-8-1 in the Twins’ last 29 games after a loss — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games on the road Over the Total after losing at least two in a row. The Over is also 22-8-2 in Minnesota’s last 32 games on the road — and the Over is 22-9-4 in the Twins’ last 36 games when favored. They sen out Maeda who is 3-3 with a 5.56 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in 12 starts. The right-hander has struggled on the road with a 6.28 ERA in nine starts — and Minnesota has played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with Maeda on the hill. He faces a Royals team that is scoring 4.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .267 batting average, .326 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .758 (near-Murderer’s Row numbers in this age of the new baseball in the Year of the Pitcher). The Over is 5-2-4 in Kansas City’s last 13 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 7-3-1 in the Royals’ last 11 games after a win. The Over is also 7-3-1 in Kansas City’s last 11 games at home against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, the Over is 12-5-4 in the Royals’ last 21 games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. The Over is also 5-2-4 in KC’s last 11 games as an underdog. They counter with Keller who is 6-8 with a 6.67 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The right-hander has been rocked with a 7.97 ERA in his eight starts at home — and the Royals have played 5 of those 8 home games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests. The Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers overall. The Over is also 5-1-1 in the Twins’ last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Twins (971) and the Kansas City Royals (972) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Brad Keller. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Atlanta Hawks (562) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (57-31) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 123-112 win at home against the Hawks as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Atlanta (51-38) has lost three of the last four games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks raced out to a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter by scoring 36 points. 28 of those points were in the paint with Milwaukee catching Atlanta too lax with their interior defense. The Hawks tightened up on defense after that. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have played 29 of their last 45 games Under the Total on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been declared out for tonight’s game — so it will be Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday carrying the offensive load again tonight. They both had big offensive games — Middleton scored 26 points with 13 rebounds and eight assists and Holiday scored 25 points with 13 assists and six rebounds. Brook Lopez also had his best game in the series with 33 points on 14 of 18 shooting. It is unlikely these four players are as effective tonight — especially back on the road in Atlanta. The Under is 5-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Atlanta has played 4 straight Unders after a loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Atlanta returns home where they have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 23-9-1 in the Hawks’ last 33 games in the playoffs as an underdog. Trae Young is listed as questionable with the bone bruise in his foot — he is a game-time decision. I suspect he will try to play in this elimination game but expected him to be close to 100% is probably too optimistic.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 17 of their last 28 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. These two teams have also played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing in Atlanta. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Atlanta Hawks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between England (234133) and Ukraine (234134) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals with their 2-0 victory against Germany on Tuesday. Ukraine (W2-D0-L2) defeated Sweden, 2-1, in the Round of 16. This match is being played on a neutral field at Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manager Gareth Southgate has England playing very cautiously — but that is why they have not allowed a goal yet in this tournament. Opponents are averaging just 0.08 expected goals per shot attempt, the third-lowest of the quarterfinalists They are allowing the third-fewest passes leading to a shot, and the fourth-fewest shot-creating actions. The Three Kings are not peppering the opposing keepers with many shots, they are averaging 0.18 expected goals per shot attempt — they are averaging just 0.08 shots per possession which is last of the teams in the Quarterfinals. Ukraine’s win against Sweden has only two combined goals scored after regulation time. The Ukrainians seized the upper hand when Sweden was issued a red card in the 99th minute. Ukraine then generated 1.10 of their 1.98 expected goals with the man advantage with Artem Dovbyk scoring the winning at 120+1 minutes just before going to penalty kicks. The Yellow-Blue was near the bottom for total chances created of all the teams in the Euro qualifiers. They were fortunate to be placed in Group C for this event, widely considered the weakest of all six groups. In an opening 3-2 loss to the (now-eliminated) Netherlands, they only managed 0.70 expected goals but still scored twice. In that final loss to Austria, they managed only 0.36 xG. Their victory to give them three points was against North Macedonia who was perhaps the worst team in the tournament. They needed a draw against Austria to secure advancement, but only managed five shots and a mere 26 passes into the final third in a listless effort. Expected goals are not everything — but it is usually the highest-talented teams that outperform their xG. Expected goals assess average shot success, and the good players that are at the top of shot efficiency (the Lionel Messi’s of the world) have to play somewhere. But they are not on the Ukrainian National Team. Most of the roster for this team comes from the Ukrainian Premier League which the advanced metrics rank as the 12th best in the world. Midfielder Rusian Malinovskiy is a good player for Atalanta in Series A. Oleksandr Zinchenko plays a role for Manchester City — but he is asked to play out-of-position for the national team. Midfielder Andriy Yarmolenko stars for this team but is not one of the key players for West Ham United. This team did not qualify for the 2018 World Cup after losing five of their last six matches in the previous two Euros where they failed to advance out of the Group Stage. In short, the xG ain’t lying about this team. Entering this match, Ukraine is last of the teams in the quarterfinals by starting only 3.5 possessions per 90 minutes in the final third of the field. They are also last of the final eight teams by letting their opponents start 10.6 possessions per 90 minutes in their final third.

FINAL TAKE: England has an excellent chance for their fifth-straight clean sheet. Because of that, Southgate will likely continue to have his team play super conservative. I do not see more than two combined goals scored in regulation time. 10* Euro Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the match between England (234133) and Ukraine (234134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:38 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (973) and the Los Angeles Angels (974) listing both starting pitchers Keegan Akin and Griffin Canning. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (27-54) has won three games in a row with their 5-2 win at Houston yesterday. Los Angeles (39-41) has won three of their last four games with their 11-8 win in New York against the Yankees yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Baltimore stays on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with the number in the 9-10.5 range. They send out Akin who is 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in 38 innings consisting of 10 appearances with six starts. The left-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 7.94 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .301 in 22 2/3 innings. The Orioles have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Akin on the hill. He faces an Angels team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .271 batting average, .335 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .790. The Over is 21-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 27 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles has played 24 of their last 38 games Over the Total after a win. The Over is also 39-16-2 in the Angels’ last 57 games at home — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total with the Total set from 9-10.5. They counter with Griffin Canning who is 5-4 with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 12 starts (13 games). Six of his games (five starts) have been at home where sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 5.19 and 1.50 marks. The Angels have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Canning pitching on five or six days rest. He faces an Orioles team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .266 batting average, .340 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .747. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is also 5-2-1 in the Orioles’ last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing in Los Angeles. 10* MLB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (973) and the Los Angeles Angels (974) listing both starting pitchers Keegan Akin and Griffin Canning. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (11) and the Montreal Canadiens (12) in Game Three of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (49-20-6) has won three straight games after winning Game Two of this series by a 3-1 score on Wednesday. Montreal (36-27-12) returns home trailing 2-0 in the series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 8-1-2 in the Lightning’s last 11 games after a win — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win at home by more than one goal. The Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 games after allowing no more than two goals. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has stopped 60 of the 62 shots he has faced in this series for a .968 save percentage. He has a 1.89 Goals-Against-Average and a .939 save percentage in the postseason. Tampa Bay go back on the road where the Under is 9-1-3 in their last 13 games — and the Under is 3-0-2 in their last 5 road games when favored. The Lightning have also played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total after a win at home. And in their last 21 playoff games where they have the lead in the series, the game finished Under the Total. Montreal returns home where they have not allowed more than two goals in six straight games. Goalie Carey Price has a .942 save percentage in his last six playoff games at home this postseason. The Canadiens get head coach Dominique Ducharme back for this game after he cleared COVID quarantine protocols. Playing at home will help Montreal since Ducharme can get Phillip Danault on the ice to defend the Brayden Point/Nikita Kucherov/Ondrej Palat top line. That forward group has scored four times in the first two games — all against the Canadiens’ forward line that has Nick Suzuki at center. The 21-year-old has been a breakout star this postseason - but his defensive chops have a ways to go. The Under is 25-7-8 in Montreal’s last 40 playoff games Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 4-0-2 in their last 6 home games when an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Canadiens have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge from two losses by more than one goal. 10* NHL Tampa Bay-Montreal NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (11) and the Montreal Canadiens (12). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Italy (234105) and Belgium (234106) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Italy (W4-D0-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals with their 2-1 win against Austria last Saturday. Belgium (W4-D0-L0) survived Portugal by a 1-0 score in their Round of 16 match last Sunday. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Italy has a long tradition of strong defensive tactics — and after not qualifying for the World Cup in 2018, manager Roberto Mancini has stepped in to re-establish the identity of La Nazionale. The Azzurri entered this tournament with seven straight clean sheets — and they held all three of their Group Stage opponents scoreless. Italy did not allow a goal in over 1000 minutes in international play before surrendering a goal in the 114th minute to the Austrians. They have one of the best keepers in the world in Gianluigi Donnarumma who is supported by a handful of talented defenders who star in Serie A. Donnarumma was only required to make two saves in the Group Stage. The Blues allowed only four goals in their ten Euro qualifying matches as well. Entering this match, they are allowing only 0.08 shots per opponent possession in this tournament. But scoring was the question mark for this team — and I am not buying the hype of the attack from this team despite them scoring seven goals in the Group Stage. That offensive output may speak more to the lack of quality of Turkey and Switzerland against whom they scored six times. Forward Ciro Immobile only scorers 12 goals in 45 games for his domestic team in Serie A this season - — he lacks a clinical finish. They were scoreless in regulation time against Austria before finding the back of the net twice in the extra time period. Belgium is allowing 0.17 shots per possession in this event — but they are limiting their opponents to just 0.07 expected goals (xG) per shot attempt which is the best mark in the tournament. The Red Devils’ backline may be old — but they veterans with tons of experience in international and club play. Belgium may also have the best keeper in the world in Real Madrid’s Thibault Courtois. The biggest problem for manager Roberto Martinez is the potential absence of Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard who both left the match against Portugal with injuries in the second half. They are game-time decisions. While Romelu Lukaku is the goal scorer up top, De Bruyne and Hazard are vital to the Belgium attack. As it is, the Red Devils have much to be desired in their attack in this tournament. They are averaging only 0.25 expected goals per shot that are on target — that is last of the remaining eight teams in the event. And while the Red Devils have scored eight times, their expected goals drop to just 4.66 xG in their four matches. Belgium does not press — so they do force the tempo nor often get caught. 96% of the shots they allow have at least two defenders between the shot attempt and the goal — as opposed to the 85% average in this tournament.

FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a cagey, low-scoring affair — even if Belgium has De Bruyne and/or Hazard available to play. I do not see one of these teams scoring twice in regulation time. 25* Euro 2020 Friday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the match between Italy (234105) and Belgium (234106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Spain (234101) and Switzerland (234102) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 20220. THE SITUATION: Spain (W2-D2-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020 with their 5-3 win after extra-time against Croatia in the Round of 16 on Monday. Switzerland (W2-D1-L1) upset France via a 5-4 win from penalty kicks after a 3-3 score in extra time in that Round of 16 match on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral pitch at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg, Russia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Spain has been the most dominant possession team in this tournament. They have held the ball for over 60% of the time in all four of their matches — and their 73% possession mark overall for the tournament is more than 15% ahead of the next closest team. This possession is allowing them to create tons of chances — they have 70 shots in their four matches. While this activity did not generate as many goals as they hoped for in their first two matches, they have scored 10 goals in their last two matches — eight combined goals in regulation when subtracting the two goals they scored they scored in the 30-minute extra time sessions against Croatia. But La Roja are vulnerable to the counter-attack when they do lose possession. While they have conceded only four goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) jumps to 6.58 xGA. They may be giving up only 6.0 shots per match, but these shots are high quality. In their four matches, their opponents are averaging 0.27 expected goals (xG) per shot. In their Golden Generation run in winning the 2008 Euro, the 2010 World Cup, and the 2012 Euro, the Reds allowed only 0.06 xG per shot. And while they took a step back in the 2014 World Cup, 2016 Euro, 2018 World Cup cycle from a competitive standpoint, they still held their opponents to just 0.14 xG per shot. In this Euro, their opponents have managed to take 10 shots that had an expected goal success rate of 0.3 or higher. In those three major international tournaments from 2014-2018, Spain conceded only 14 shots overall with an xG rating of 0.3 or higher. The Spanish defense — playing without Barcelona’s Sergio Ramos in the middle for the first time since 2004 — is vulnerable. Switzerland thrives in the counter-attack. They are fourth in this tournament in passes that lead to shots. They are fifth for the most touches in the penalty area. They are fifth in most shot-creating actions. But the Swiss are vulnerable on defense. Italy scored three times against them with an xG of 2.50. France scored three times in regulation time while generating 3.50 xG. The Swiss National Team gave up 67 touches in the penalty area against France and Italy. Switzerland is last of the eight remaining teams in this tournament by allowing 1.85 goals per 90 minutes.

FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights — and this should be a higher-scoring affair. Spain will control possession once again — and they will pepper the Swiss with plenty of shot attempts. But Switzerland should score at least once on the counter-attack on this susceptible Reds defense that is learning how to live without Ramos leading them in the back. 25* Euro 2020 Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Spain (234101) and Switzerland (234102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (541) and the Milwaukee Bucks (542) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (51-37) evened this series at 2-2 with their 110-88 upset win at home against the Bucks as a 5.5-point underdog. Milwaukee (56-31) had won the previous two games in this series before losing on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a war of attrition between two flawed basketball teams now facing the challenge of adjusting to significant injuries. I waited for the early afternoon injury updates to make my final calls on this game. Giannis Antetokounmpo was declared out for tonight’s game at 1:30 PM ET with his sore left knee. Trae Young is questionable with the bone bruise in his right foot — he will be a game-time decision. Even if he plays, it remains a separate question as to how effective he will be if less than 100%. The injury updates are only half the news that interests me — how this impacts the line movement on the over/under is the other important dynamic to consider. Atlanta’s secondary players stepped up knowing they would have to be at their best to compensate for the absence of Young. Their 50.6% shooting effort was their best performance in 10 games. A letdown — especially on the road — is likely. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. On the road, Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better when playing at home. Milwaukee should tighten up on defense after allowing the Hawks to make 50.6% of their shots, the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Bucks have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points. Milwaukee has also played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total at home Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Bucks return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a home favorite.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. With the playoff pressure intensifying, expect a lower-scoring game between these two teams far from 100%. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (541) and the Milwaukee Bucks (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (531) and the Los Angeles Clippers (532) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (62-25) looks to bounce back from their 116-102 upset loss to the Clippers as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (57-33) still faces elimination tonight, trailing 3-2 in the series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Phoenix allowed the Clippers to make 54.8% of their shots in Game Five which was the worst defensive effort in their last 21 games. The Suns have only suffered back-to-back losses four times all season — so a better effort on the defensive end of the court should be coming tonight. Phoenix has played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Suns have also played 18 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total after a loss on their home court. Phoenix goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Los Angeles had their best shooting effort in their last five games with their 54.8% shooting percentage on Monday. But the Clippers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. Los Angeles returns to the Staples Center where the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games. The Clippers have also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total when playing in Los Angeles. Phoenix has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss where they were favored by at least 7 points. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (5

At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Atlanta Hawks (522) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-30) took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 113-102 win as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (50-37) has lost the last two games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks were cruising with a 95-88 lead with just 7:20 left in the game. But Atlanta would only score seven points the rest of the game with their offense almost completely drying up after Trae Young’s inopportune ankle injury after accidentally stepping on the foot of a referee. He is questionable to play tonight. While my best guess is that he tries to play, the mystery is how effective will he be? His game is dependent on his lateral movement. He only took four shots in the fourth quarter, making one, with just three points, and Milwaukee outscoring Atlanta by 15 points when he was on the court. He was merely a decoy in the waning minutes of the game — that speaks loudly. The Hawks are looking more and more like a M*A*S*H unit. They are already hampered by Bogdan Bogdanovic and his knee injury. After scoring 16.4 PPG with 5.9 Rebounds-Per-Game in the first nine playoff games this postseason, he has not scored more than nine points nor pulled down more than four rebounds in his last six playoff games. After making only 3 of 16 shots on Sunday, Bogdanovic has made only 7 of his 28 shot attempts in this series. Atlanta has averaged only 96.5 PPG in the last two games in this series. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Hawks have played 6 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in the playoffs. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They stay on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games when playing teams with a winning record at home. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has lost the last two games by 34 and 11 points — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging two straight games by 10 or more points. These two teams have also played 4 straight Unders when playing in Atlanta. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Atlanta Hawks (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Five of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (56-33) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Four by an 84-80 score on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Phoenix (62-24) has won ten of their last eleven games to take the 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers only made 32.5% of their shots on Sunday — so was that an outlier or indicative of a downward trend? I suspect it is the latter. This Los Angeles team is tired — both physically from the every-other-day grind of the NBA playoffs and emotionally for having dug itself three straight 0-2 series holes. Without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George has taken the leadership role on offense — and he is averaging 40.9 minutes per game in the playoffs which is almost seven more minutes per game than his regular-season average. The Clippers are only making 34.8% of their 3-point shot attempts in this series, a far cry from their 41.8% clip during the regular season. Los Angeles has tired legs — and the Suns are forcing them to take more difficult shots from behind the arc. The Clippers have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home against a Pacific Division rival. The Under is also 13-6-1 in their last 20 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, LA has played 4 straight Unders after failing to crack 90 points in their last game. The Clippers are averaging 120.8 points per 100 possessions in the postseason — but they are down to just 109.4 points per 100 possessions against Phoenix. Los Angeles has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog — and the Under is 35-17-3 in their last 55 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Phoenix has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional rival. The Suns have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Phoenix only made 36.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 41 games. The Suns’ 84 points came after them scoring just 92 points in Game Three — so this looks to be more than just a bad shooting night. Devin Booker does not look comfortable wearing the face mask to protect his broken nose — and he may be tiring from the playoff grind in his first postseason as a professional. Chris Paul still looks rusty after being out with COVID. Cameron Payne is slowed with an ankle injury — he played only 20 minutes on Sunday and made only 2 of his 8 shots from the field. Phoenix returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The 164 combined points finished over 50 points below the 217.5 total set for Game Four. The empirical data suggests another lower-scoring game is coming. In games with the Total set at 210 or higher, when a team with a winning percentage in the 60 to 75% range faces a team with a winning record after a game that finished at least 36 points below the Total, this game finished Under the Total in 52 of the last 73 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (61) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (62) in Game One of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Montreal (36-25-12) has won 11 of their last 13 games with their 3-2 win in overtime against Vegas last Thursday to close out that series in six games. Tampa Bay (47-20-6) comes off a 1-0 win against the New York Islanders last Friday to win that semifinals series in seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Montreal completely frustrated the Golden Knights' attack in that six-game series — Vegas did not score more than two goals in the final five games. Carey Price is playing as well as he has at any point in his career. He carries a 2.02 Goals-Against-Average and a .934 save percentage in the postseason into tonight’s game. The Canadiens have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by one goal at home. Montreal has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win in overtime. Additionally, the Under is 35-17-2 in the Canadiens’ last 54 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Montreal has scored seven combined goals in their last two games — but they have then played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after scoring at least two goals in their last two games. Furthermore, the Under is 3-1-2 in the Canadiens’ last 6 games when playing with at least three days of rest. Tampa Bay has played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a shutout win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a victory at home where they shut out their opponent. The Under is also 8-1-2 in the Lightning’s last 11 games after a win — and the Under is 6-1-2 after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They are getting outstanding goaltending from the likely Vezina Trophy winner tomorrow night in Andrei Vasilevskiy who has a 1.99 GAA with a .936 save percentage and four shutouts this postseason. The Tampa Bay attack — and power play — may be slowed down if top-line left wing Nikita Kucherov is not close to 100% with the hip injury he suffered in Game Six against the Islanders. He played just over 16 minutes in Game Seven to give his team an emotional lift — but the Lightning attack was not the same. The Under is 7-3-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 11 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 5-2-3 in the Lightning’s last 10 games in the Stanley Cup Finals — and the Under is 24-6-8 in the Canadiens’ last 38 playoff games as an underdog. In the first game between these two teams all season, expect a cagey, low-scoring affair. Both these teams did not see more than five combined goals in their Game Ones last round against unfamiliar teams in their first game out of division all season. 25* NHL NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (61) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (62). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Garrett Richards. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (33-43) has lost five games in a row after their 4-1 loss to Texas yesterday. Boston (47-31) has won three in a row after their weekend sweep of the New York Yankees that culminated in a 9-2 victory yesterday afternoon.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox got their bats out yesterday with four home runs — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after banging our four or more home runs in their last game. Boston has played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after playing a game at home where they scored at least eight runs. And in their last 11 games after winning two games in a row at home against AL East foes, they have played 10 of these games Over the Total. But the reason why the Total for this game has been bet up to 11 is due to the trials that Garrett Richards is experiencing without the benefit of his usual substances that help him grip the baseball. Without the ability to use sunscreen — something that Richards says he has been using since his rookie year — he cannot get the grip on his curveball. Richards has abandoned even using what has been his best pitch — and that leaves him as an unusable pitcher when he is dependent on his below-average four-seam fastball. Richards has a 4-5 record this season with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in 15 starts. In his last three starts since the MLB has cracked down on foreign substances like suntan lotion, Richards has an ugly 9.82 ERA and a 2.55 WHIP. Even without these new circumstances, Richards was a starting pitcher I was looking to fade. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.02 and 4.79 moving forward. And he has struggled at Fenway Park with a 6.46 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP along with a .333 opponent’s batting average in five starts. Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in June with Richards starting. The Red Sox have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home with the Total set at 11 or higher. Kansas City scores 4.4 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 5-1-2 in their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Royals have not hit a home run in four straight games — but they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not hitting a home run in two straight games. And while Kansas City has scored one run in their last two games, they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two runs in two straight games. They counter with Danny Duffy who is 4-3 with a 1.81 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in eight starts (nine games). The veteran left-hander’s great start was interrupted by a left flexor strain that put him on the shelf for six weeks. He is being eased back into the rotation — so no more than 50 or 60 pitches from him are expected tonight. Even without taking into account his injury which may impact his effectiveness moving forward, his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.65 and 3.84. The Royals bullpen will be asked to pitch at least half this game — and that group has a 6.60 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP in the last seven games.

FINAL TAKE: Boston scores 5.1 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .266 batting average, .320 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .756. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Garrett Richards. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Switzerland (234169) and France (234170) in the Round of 16 of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Switzerland (W1-D1-L1) reached the Knockout Stage with their 3-1 win against Turkey in their last Group Stage match last Sunday. France (W1-D2-L0) comes off a 2-2 draw with Portugal last Wednesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen, Denmark.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: France is the reigning World Cup champions — and they have some of the best-attacking talents in the world in Paris-Saint Germain’s Kylian Mbappe and Real Madrid’s Karim Benzema. But Les Bleus are a defensive-first team that prefers to generate offense on their counter-attack. This has been the recipe for success for manager Didier Deschamps in their 2016 Euro campaign when they lost in the Finals to Portugal and their World Cup championship team in 2018. France has scored only four times in this tournament in three matches — and only two of the goals were from open play. They benefited from Mats Hummels' own goal in their victory against Germany. They also got a penalty kick goal from Mbappe against Portugal. Even their lone goal against Hungary came from a bad gaffe from the Hungarians. France has generated only 4.5 expected goals in their three matches. This group seems to lack a plan to break down their opponent if they settle into a defensive posture (outside of hoping their elite talent will somehow find a way to score). Deschamps does not advance his fullbacks into an advanced position to complement the attack. And Barcelona forward Ousmane Dembele is injured taking away a super-sub attacking option for Deschamps. But the French defense remains immaculate. They have only allowed one goal from open play from their three games. Cristiano Ronaldo scored both of his goals on Wednesday from penalty kicks. Getting whistled for a penalty with the ball inside the box just does not happen very often. Switzerland lacks the dynamic scoring talent that tends to draw penalties either. The Swiss National Team only scored one goal against Wales and Italy before netting three goals against a suspect Turkey side. Xherdan Shaqiri scored twice in their match against the Turks — but the “Alpine Messi” has declined as a talent as a 30-year-old and rarely starts for Liverpool at this point in his career. The Swiss generate plenty of shots — they generated the third-most shots in the group stage. The problem is that the quality of shots is low — and they lack the talent to execute on these low-probability shots. The Rossacrociati have the fourth-lowest expected goals per shots attempt with many of their shots coming from long distance. But Switzerland remains a solid defensive side that will play disciplined fundamental defense. While they allowed five goals in their three matches, the expected goals allowed dropped to 4.4 xGA.

FINAL TAKE: It will be difficult for Switzerland to score against France — their expected goals of just 0.25 xG against Italy was telling. But I do not see Les Bleus score more than two goals in this match. Styles make fights — and neither of these teams is comfortable playing on their front foot. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Switzerland (234169) and France (234170). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (55-30) evened this series at 1-1 with their 125-91 victory at home as an 8-point favorite on Friday. Atlanta (50-36) had their two-game winning streak snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks shot 52.1% shooting percentage from the field in Game Two which was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering four or five of their last six games. They head back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s. The Under is also 7-2-1 in the Bucks’ last 10 road games against teams with a winning record. The Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when they are favored. Atlanta allowed the Bucks to make 52.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Hawks made only 41.5% of their shots with Trae Young struggling by making only 6 of 16 shots including just 1 of his 8 shots from behind the arc for 15 points. He struggled with Milwaukee’s adjustment to pick-and-roll coverage that played higher-up on him to take away the floaters that burned them in Game One. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 21 of their last 33 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Hawks’ Bogan Bogdanovic has struggled since suffering a knee injury in Game Six of their series with Philadelphia. He has not scored more than 9 points in four straight games despite being Atlanta’s primary scoring option after Young. The Hawks return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Atlanta has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. The Hawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by 30 or more points. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (591) and the Los Angeles Clippers (592) in Game Four of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-24) had their nine-game winning streak in the postseason snapped in a 106-92 upset loss on the road against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (56-32) has won five of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Phoenix made only 38.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 40 games. Chris Paul returned to the court after completing his COVID quarantine but he was rusty by making only 5 of 19 shots. Devin Booker made only 5 of 21 shots while looking uncomfortable wearing the mask he will have to get comfortable with after breaking his nose in the last game. To compound matters, Cameron Payne suffered a left ankle sprain which limited him to just 4:19 minutes played. Phoenix should back to their 114.4 PPG scoring average tonight. Paul will be better with another two days of work to get back into his routine. Booker will get used to the mask — this has rarely been a hindrance for superstars once they get acclimated to the appliance (Rip Hamilton liked it so much that he kept wearing it after his face injury healed when he was leading Detroit Pistons to a title in the 1990s). Payne is listed as probable to play tonight. The Suns have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. They stay on the road where they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a road favorite. Los Angeles played their best game on defense in their last 12 games by holding the Suns to just 38.9% shooting. They have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a double-digit win against a Pacific Division rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. The Clippers have also played 13 of their last 17 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog including their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (591) and the Los Angeles Clippers (592). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Austria (234153) and Italy (234154) in the Round of 16 in the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Austria (W2-D0-L1) clinched their involvement in the Knockout Stage with their 1-0 victory against Ukraine on Monday. Italy (W3-D0-L0) remained unscathed in the Euro 2020 with a 1-0 victory against Wales last Sunday. This match will be played on a  neutral pitch at Wembley Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Italy has a long tradition of strong defensive tactics — and after not qualifying for the World Cup in 2018, manager Roberto Mancini has stepped in to re-establish the identity of La Nazionale. The Azzurri entered this tournament with seven straight clean sheets — and they held all three of their Group Stage opponents scoreless. Italy has now not allowed a goal in over 1000 minutes in international play. They have one of the best keepers in the world in Gianluigi Donnarumma who is supported by a handful of talented defenders who star in Serie A. Donnarumma was only required to make two saves in the first three games. The Blues allowed only four goals in their ten Euro qualifying matches as well. But scoring was the question mark for this team — and I am not buying the hype of the attack from this team despite them scoring seven goals in the Group Stage. That offensive output may speak more to the lack of quality of Turkey and Switzerland against whom they scored six times. Forward Ciro Immobile only scorers 12 goals in 45 games for his domestic team in Serie A this season. Austria is a dangerous opponent. They have one of the most talented midfields in this tournament with RB Leipzig’s Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer and Wolfsburg Xaver Schlager. Manager Franco Foda also has a jack-of-all-trades talent in David Alba who played left-back for Bayern Munich but has played in the midfield or left wing for his national team. Alba was poached by Real Madrid earlier this year — he is the wild card talent in this match. Das Team will play conservatively with the hopes of scoring on the counter-attack. They ranked second in the Group Stage by forcing turnovers in 38% of their pressures on the press. Italy may be vulnerable here — their three Group Stage opponents did not top a turnover percentage over 28% with their press in the opening three matches. Throw out their 3-1 result against an overmatched North Macedonia. Austria did not score against the Netherlands — but they held the Dutch to just two goals despite playing on their home soil in Amsterdam. They held Ukraine to just 0.36 expected goals but only scored once in that match.

FINAL TAKE: I considered Italy underrated entering this tournament — but I suspect the pendulum has turned the other way with their 3-0 start with a +7 goal differential. The Azzurri benefited from an easy group — and they have not played an opponent with as much quality as these Austrians in perhaps three years when they played Portugal (unless Poland or the Netherlands are better competition?). The Italians also played all three of their Group Stage matches on home soil in Rome. I expect their defense to travel — but the attack will be exposed with La Nazionale likely playing more cautiously in this match. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Austria (234153) and Italy (234154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (581) and the Milwaukee Bucks (582) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (50-35) took a 1-0 lead in this series with their 116-113 upset victory on the road against the Bucks as an 8.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Milwaukee (54-30) has still won four of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks shot 49.5% from the field in Game One which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. It will be difficult for Trae Young to replicate his 48-point effort. He was thriving in the midrange making 13 of his 21 shots inside the arc while taking advantage of the Bucks’ drop coverage on pick-and-rolls. That game was the worst defensive effort for Milwaukee in their last six games. The Bucks should tighten things up on that end of the court tonight. Mike “Never Makes Adjustments (according to his lazy critics)” Budenholzer only played Brook Lopez for just eight minutes in the second half with him on the bench for the final 16 minutes of the game. Lopez was getting burned playing drop defense in the pick-and-roll against Trae Young who was torching him with floaters — but Budenholzer’s move to a small lineup with Antetokounmpo playing the five helped to limit Young to making just two of his eight floaters in the second half. Expect more smaller lineups from Budenholzer tonight. Atlanta has pulled off two straight upset wins after beating Philadelphia on the road in Game Seven in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Hawks have played 10 straight road games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upsets on the road. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. Milwaukee has played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Bucks have also played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 11 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series — including their last four. The Under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series. These two teams have also played 4 of their last meetings Under the Total. 10* NBA Atlanta-Milwaukee TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (581) and the Milwaukee Bucks (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Islanders (31) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (32) in Game Seven of their Stanley Cup Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (43-28-8) forced a climactic seventh game in this series with their 3-2 victory in overtime on Wednesday. Tampa Bay (46-20-6) returns home to host this Game Seven having lost two of their last three games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Islanders have played a decisive 41 of their last 63 road games Under the Total after a win or tie in their last game. They have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a win at home this season — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win at home by just one goal. New York has also played 33 of their last 52 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Islanders are outplaying the Lightning when playing at even strength. They have held them to only 7.67 High Danger Chances per game in this series — and they are scoring only 1.85 expected goals per game at five-on-five. Tampa Bay is thriving when they get on the power play. While their 29.4% success rate with the man-advantage in this series is below their 37.7% mark in this postseason, it is still well above their 23.1% success rate during the regular season. The Islanders were the least penalized team during the regular season. The referees tend to swallow their whistles in Game Sevens to not put undue influence on the game. There have been two games in this series that finished with more than five combined goals — and the Lightning had five and six power-play opportunities in both contests. In the other four games in this series, Tampa Bay was not on the power play more than twice for the entire game. New York has played 5 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied — and they have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games when facing elimination. The Islanders have also played 23 of their last 35 road games Under the Total on the road. Tampa Bay has played 23 of their last 36 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They may be without their leading scorer in the playoffs in Nikita Kucherov tonight after he was knocked out of the game early in the first period from a crosscheck that targeted the injured hip that kept him out of the entire regular season. Kucherov is the straw that stirs their drink on the power play from good to elite. He has five goals and a whopping 27 assists in the postseason. The Lightning have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing at home in closeout games.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 3-1-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 6 opportunities to host the Islanders — and they have played 8 straight Game Sevens Under the Total. 25* NHL Stanley Cup Semifinal Playoffs Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Islanders (31) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (32). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572) in Game Three of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 104-103 victory as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (55-32) trails by an 0-2 mark in a playoff series for the third straight time this postseason.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Phoenix won Game Two despite shooting 50% from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Suns may have an insurmountable edge in Deandre Ayton who Los Angeles does not have an answer for down low. Ayton is averaging 22 PPG on 75.9% shooting while pulling down 11.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in this series. Only Ivica Zubac has come close to slowing down Ayton. DeMarcus Cousins has a -38.2 Net Rating when he is on the court in this series with the Suns scoring at 138.2 points per 100 possession rate. If Zubac gets into foul trouble, Los Angeles may not have a suitable alternative to Cousins. And if the Clippers are playing Zubac, that means more points for both teams. Los Angeles has scored 116 points per 100 possessions with Zubac on the court in this series. The Over is 11-5-1 in the Suns’ last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Los Angeles only made 45% of their shots on Tuesday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games. Paul George has made only 11 of his 29 shots in this series and Marcus Morris has made just 3 of his 13 shots — both should play better back on their home court. The Clippers have played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less. The Clippers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 10* NBA Phoenix-LA Clippers ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (21) versus the Montreal Canadiens (22) in Game Six of the Stanley Cup Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (50-19-5) is on the brink of elimination in the playoffs after a 4-1 loss at home to the Canadiens on Tuesday. Montreal (35-25-12) has won ten of their last twelve games as they seized a 3-2 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Vegas has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a loss — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a loss at home by at least three goals. The Golden Knights’ forwards have been stymied by the Montreal blue line and defensive efforts of their forwards. They have not scored more than two goals in four straight games. The Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after not scoring more than tow goals in their last game. They go back on the road where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games when favored. Robin Lehner will be the goaltender tonight which is fine — he had a 2.29 Goals-Against-Average and a .919 save percentage during the regular season after being the first-string goalie in the postseason last year. The Under is 2-0-2 in Montreal’s last 4 games after a win — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Under is 35-17-4 in the Canadiens’ last 56 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They return home where the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games. The Under is also 24-6-7 in Montreal’s last 37 games in the playoffs when they are underdogs.

FINAL TAKE: Vegas plays 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss to their opponent in their last meeting. 10* NHL Vegas-Montreal USA Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (21) versus the Montreal Canadiens (22). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) and the San Diego Padres (908) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (44-29) has lost the first two games of this series with their 3-2 loss on the road last night. San Diego (44-32) has won six games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss to an NL West rival — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss by just one run. Los Angeles has also played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing two in a row. They give the ball to Bauer who is 7-5 with a 2.45 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander is the poster child for spin rate — and seems to have been negatively impacted with MLB’s crackdown on foreign substances that help pitchers get more spin on the baseball. In his last four starts, Bauer has a seen his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.46 and 1.27 marks. While those are still solid numbers, they are not elite — and he is facing a good Padres’ lineup that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .274 batting average, .357 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .932. The Over is 13-6-1 in San Diego’s last 20 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Perhaps the spin rate issue with Bauer is overstated — and he is simply experiencing good ole fashioned regression? His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.44 and 3.73 for the right-hander moving forward. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. San Diego has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning at least six in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Padres have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total when favored. They counter Musgrove who is 4-6 with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in 14 games (13 starts). The sabermetrics call for an ERA of 3.97 and 3.00 moving forward. The left-hander changed his approach this season with an increased reliance on his cutter and slider at the expense of his four-seamer and sinker. But hitters adapt once the book gets written on his new approach — and the Dodgers have already faced him once this season on April 25th. His teams have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with him pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He only struck out two batters in his last performance on June 17th — and his teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Musgrove pitching with five or six days of rest. The Dodgers may not have Mookie Betts in their lineup tonight as he deals with an illness — but they are averaging 5.8 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. The Over is 27-11-2 in LA’s last 40 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when motivated by at least double-revenge. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) and the San Diego Padres (908) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (561) and the Milwaukee Bucks (562) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (49-35) has won three of their last four games after their 103-96 upset win at Philadelphia as a 4-point underdog in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. Milwaukee (54-29) has won four of their last five games after rallying from a 3-2 deficit to defeat Brooklyn by a 115-111 score as a 2-point favorite in Game 7 on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Atlanta has also played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after an upset victory. And in their last 31 games after winning two of their last three games, the Hawks have played 20 of these games Under the Total. Atlanta stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. And in their last 21 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Hawks have played 14 of these games Under the Total. Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. While there is a cottage industry of folks thinking they are better head coaches than Mike Budenholzer because he doesn’t make enough “adjustments”, the veteran head coach in his third Conference Finals does not get enough credit for his defensive tactics. The Bucks are holding their playoff opponents to 105.0 points per 100 possessions — and these opponents have just a 51.2% effective field percentage in the playoffs. But the Milwaukee offense struggled against a suspect Brooklyn defense last round — they scored at just a 101.9 points per 100 possession rate. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new playoff series Under the Total. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 10* NBA Atlanta-Milwaukee TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (561) and the Milwaukee Bucks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (81) and the Vegas Golden Knights (82) in Game Five of their Stanley Cup Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Montreal (34-25-12) outplayed the Golden Knights for most of Game Four but lost the game in overtime in a 2-1 loss. Vegas (50-18-5) evened the series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Canadiens have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total on the road after a loss at home. They have also played 13 of their 19 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. Montreal limited the Golden Knights to just 21 shots on Sunday with only two High Danger Chances. Goalie Carey Price is in the zone again with a 2.09 Goals-Against-Average and a .931 save percentage in the playoffs. With Price leading the way, the Under is 23-6-7 in the Canadiens’ last 36 playoff games as an underdog. Vegas has been stymied in all 11 of their Power Play chances in this series. They may get Chandler Stephenson back to center their top-line — but his absence in the last two games has not been the only problem. The Knights are at the bottom of all 16 teams that made the playoffs with just four power-play goals in 39 chances for a mere 10.3% success rate. The Under is 3-0-1 in Vegas’ last 4 games after failing to score more than two goals. The Golden Knights have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. And in their last 6 games at home in the semifinals of the Stanley Cup playoffs, all 6 games finished Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Montreal has played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. 10* NHL Montreal-Vegas NBC Sports Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (81) and the Vegas Golden Knights (82). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Scotland (234125) and Croatia (234126). THE SITUATION: Scotland (W0-D1-L1) comes off a 0-0 draw with England last Friday. Croatia (W0-D1-L1) also settled for a draw with their 1-1 result with the Czech Republic on Friday. This match will be played in Scotland’s home soil at Hampden Park in Glasgow.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Scoring looked to be a challenge for this Scotland team lacking in a dynamic attacker up front. Southampton’s Che Adams is a poacher — but he needs a creative partner up top (like Danny Ings with Southampton) to generate the chances that he can then pick up on. In midfielders Ryan Fraser, John Fleck, and John McGinn, the Tartan Army has capable players but who are not dynamic playmakers. So it is not a surprise that Scotland has yet to score a goal. And while their expected goals are at 3.0 in their first two matches, underachieving the expected goals tally is not uncommon for teams that lack quality finishers. Manager Steve Clarke has his team smartly embracing defensive tactics given these limitations — and they have only conceded two goals in this tournament. Clarke has moved defensive back Andy Robertson up top to a wing to help generate offense, but using players out of position is not ideal. But this team is playing quality defense. They have allowed only two goals — and they held a loaded English side to just seven shots, with only one on target. Croatia has scored just once — and they have generated only 1.6 expected goals in their two matches. The doldrums in the attack were on displaying in their tune-up matches to begin the month as well as they only scored once in their two friendlies against Belgium and Armenia. The Chequered Ones reached the Finals of the 2018 World Cup — but forward Mario Mandzukic and midfielder Ivan Rakitic have since retired. Croatia still has talent in their midfield — led by Real Madrid’s Luka Modric — but they lack comparable talent up top. This team simply looks uninspired with four straight losses and just two wins in their last eleven matches across all competitions. Frankly, this is a veteran team that knows they peaked in 2018. After a year-long busy schedule to fit everything in during a pandemic that delayed the end of the 2019-20 campaigns, this group may simply be tired.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams need the three points that will come with a victory. Because both sides are struggling to score goals, I suspect they will consider a 1-0 deficit to be devastating. Cautious play is likely — and if a team falls behind, expecting two goals to tie the game is probably overly optimistic. 25* Euro 2020 Group D Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Scotland (234125) and Croatia (234126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Islanders (71) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (72) in Game Five of their semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (42-22-8) evened this series at 2-2 with their 3-2 victory against the Lightning on Saturday. Tampa Bay (45-20-5) returns home to their Amalie Arena.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Islanders have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by just one goal. New York has also played 15 of their last 21 games on the road Under the Total after a win at home. They did allow two goals in the third period after taking a 3-0 lead into the locker room after the second period — but they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing more than two goals in the third period in their last game. New York has played 23 of their last 34 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 13 of their last 18 road games when playing their third game in five days. Tampa Bay is struggling on offense because the Islanders are too disciplined to give them many power-play chances. After converting on 43.1% of their power plays in the first two rounds, they have scored only two goals in their nine power plays in this series. The Lightning only had one power-play chance on Saturday. They have played 18 of their last 24 playoff games in Game Five Under the Total. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss on the road as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 22 of their last 32 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied — and the Islanders have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when the series was tied. 10* NHL Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with =Under the Total in the game between the New York Islanders (71) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (72). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (911) and the Texas Rangers (912) listing both starting pitchers Frankie Montas and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: Oakland (44-29) has lost two straight games after their 2-1 loss in New York against the Yankees yesterday. Texas (25-46) has lost six in a row after their 4-2 loss to Minnesota yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. And while Oakland had been on a seven-game winning streak before dropping their last two, they have then played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The A’s stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. They give the ball to Montas who is 7-6 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.13 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP in four starts. Oakland has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Montas pitching with a Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.86 and 3.91 moving forward. He faces a Rangers team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .226 batting average, .282 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .649. The Under is 4-1-1 in Texas’ last 6 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Rangers have seen the Under go 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Texas has also played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. They counter with Gibson who is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 13 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 0.96 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and a .191 opponent’s batting average in six starts. The Rangers have played 4 of their 6 home games Under the Total with Gibson on the hill this season.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 125 range. Oakland has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% — and they have played 27 of their last 41 games Under the Total when playing at night. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (911) and the Texas Rangers (912) listing both starting pitchers Frankie Montas and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (61) and the Montreal Canadiens (62) in Game Four of their Stanley Cup Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Vegas (49-18-5) looks to bounce back from their 3-2 loss in overtime to the Canadiens on Friday. Montreal (34-25-11) took a 2-1 lead in this series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Knights have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss. The Under is also 5-1-2 in their last 8 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. The forwards are slumping for this Vegas team with the upper-body injury to Chandler Stephenson disrupting the chemistry of their top-line. Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty have combined for only a point in this series as they miss their veteran center who does the little things in that group. The Golden Knights have not scored on their ten Power Play chances in this series. Head coach Peter DeBoer turns back to Robin Lehner tonight as his goalie (perhaps to give Marc-Andre Fleury a rest). Fleury did make a bad mistake with the puck at the end of Game Three which created the scoring opportunity for Josh Anderson to tie the game and force overtime. Lehner looked rusty in his previous start in Game One against Colorado in that ugly 7-1 loss. Let’s remember that Lehner was the team’s top goaltender in the postseason last year — and he had a 2.29 Goals-Against-Average and a .919 save percentage during the regular season. Lehner should play better — and not having to face the uber-fast Avalanche forwards who were rested and ready to start that series will certainly help. The Vegas defense was a step or two slow in that game as well after completing their seven-game grind with Minnesota. The Golden Knights have allowed three goals in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing three or more goals in two straight games. Vegas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs when trailing. Montreal has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total at home after a win at home. The Canadiens have also played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after a win in overtime. They are getting outstanding goaltending from Carey Price who has a 2.10 GAA and a .932 save percentage in the postseason. The Under is 4-1-1 in Montreal’s last 6 games at home — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games as a home underdog. Furthermore, the Under is 22-6-7 in the Canadiens’ last 35 games in the playoffs as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Vegas has been upset in the last two games in this series — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from two straight upset losses. 10* NHL Vegas-Montreal NBC Sports Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (61) and the Montreal Canadiens (62). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (48-35) has lost three of the last five games in this series after their 104-99 loss on the road against the 76ers on Friday as a 2.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (56-27) had lost the last two games in this series before forcing a Game Seven with the win in Game Six.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After their blistering first half in the opening game of this series where the Hawks made 63.4% of their shots, Atlanta has never come close to replicating that mark. They have not made more than 45.9% of their shots in five of the next six games — and they only made 41.2% of their shots on Friday despite playing on their home court. While Trae Young has been scintillating with a 30.3 PPG scoring average along with an 11.0 Assists-Per-Game mark, the problem for the Hawks is that he is not getting much help. No other play is averaging more than 2.5 Assists-Per-Game. Bogan Bogdanovich had being been a reliable number two in the first four games of this series with a 19 PPG scoring average and a 36.1% clip from bending the arc, he has only averaged 6.5 PPG in the last two games while making only 1 of his 10 shots from 3-point range. And now Bogdanovich is questionable with a knee injury for this game. Young needs more help. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They go back to Philadelphia for Game Seven where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. The Hawks have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. After scoring at least 118 points in each of the first three games of this series, the Sixers have not scored more than 106 points in the next three games. That downtrend coincides with the slide in Joel Embiid’s play as he continues to manage with the right meniscus tear in his knee. Embiid scored only 22 points on 37.5% shooting on Friday. Philadelphia is favored to win this game and move on to the NBA Eastern Conference Finals — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination. Atlanta has played 17 of their last 22 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination in their history — and they have played 16 of their last 17 playoff games Under the Total in closeout games. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Brooklyn Nets (522) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (53-29) forced a decisive seventh game in this series on Thursday with their 104-89 victory at home as a 5-point favorite. Brooklyn (55-28) has lost three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Khris Middleton stepped on Thursday by scoring 37 points on 11 of 16 shooting from the field. Middleton nailed 5 of his 8 shots from behind the arc — but the telling stat is that his teammates made only 2 of their 25 shots from downtown. Now the Bucks go back on the road where Middleton has made only 21 of his 65 shots (32.3%) in this series. Milwaukee has made only 27 of their 89 shots (30.3%) from behind the arc in this series. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog overall — and they have played 4 straight playoff games Under the Total when getting the points. Milwaukee is playing elite-level defense in this series. Going into Game Six, the Bucks held Brooklyn to just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series — and then they held the Nets to only 89 points. Brooklyn is averaging only — and they are averaging just 107 PPG against the Bucks in this series. The Nets are averaging only 103.7 PPG in this series —and they have not scored more than 96 points in three of their last four games in this series. Despite posting a historical 118.3 Offensive Rating in the regular season (and despite injuries to Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving) before a 130.1 Offensive Rating in their first-round playoff series with Boston, the Nets had just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series before Game Six. The Under is 34-16-1 in Milwaukee’s last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. While there is now an entire cottage industry of NBA “experts” who think they could get more out of this Bucks’ team than Mike Budenholzer because they have thoughts on how they would better deploy his rotation patterns, Budenholzer has coached amazing results on the defensive end of the court in this series. Brooklyn has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in the Nets’ last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a loss by 10 or more points. For the second-straight game, Brooklyn trailed at halftime by double-digits. They were in the hole by a 59-48 score on Thursday after trailing, 59-43, on Tuesday. The Nets have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after trailing by 10 or more points at halftime in their last two games. They return home where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. Brooklyn has also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: These are two teams stumbling into the finals with major question marks from their star offensive players. Kevin Durant was sublime in Game Five — but playing every minute on Tuesday seemed to sap his energy on Thursday as he only got to the free throw line twice while committing seven turnovers and missing six of his eight shots from 3-point land. James Harden is not close to 100%. Joe Harris is making only 30.9% of his 3-pointers in this series after leading the NBA in 3-point shooting with a 47.5% clip. Middleton is struggling away from home — and Jrue Holiday is not having a good series as he is averaging only 15.5 PPG on 40.5% shooting. And then there is Giannis Antetokounmpo who is scoring nice numbers when able to pad his stats as a frontrunner when his team has the lead, but he has disappointed in clutch situations and he has only made 21 of his 46 (45.7%) free throws in the series. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 games between these two teams in Brooklyn. 25* NBA 2nd Round Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Brooklyn Nets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (51) and the New York Islanders (52) in Game Four of their Stanley Cup Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (45-19) comes off a 2-1 victory in Game Three of this series on the road against the Islanders. New York (41-22-8) trails 2-1 in the series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lightning are only allowing 2.21 Goals-Per-Game in the postseason — the lowest mark of the remaining four teams still competing. They are getting great goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy who stopped 27 of the 28 shots he faced on Thursday. He has a 2.13 Goals-Against-Average in the playoffs with a .935 save percentage — and he has only allowed five goals from the 85 shots he faced in this series for a .940 save percentage. Tampa Bay has played 7 straight Unders after a win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. The Under is also 9-1-1 in their last 11 games on the road. They have allowed just three goals during their current four-game winning streak on the road. The Lightning have played 14 of their last 20 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series including six of these nine circumstances this season. New York has played 21 of their last 31 home games Under the Total after a game where they did not score more than one goal. Their top forward lines have chosen the wrong time to fall into a slump — although the elite blue line of Tampa is playing a big role in this drop in production. Anthony Beauvillier has not scored in the last eight games. Jordan Eberle has scored only one goal in the last two series. Kyle Palmieri has not scored in this series after finding the back of the net seven times in the first two rounds of the postseason. Josh Bailey has not scored in the last four games. But the Islanders remain competitive because of their great defense and strong goaltending. They held Tampa Bay to just 1.51 expected goals in the 2-1 loss on Thursday. In the first three games of this series, they have held the Lightning to just 5.09 expected goals combined.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. 10* NHL Tampa Bay-NY Islanders USA Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (51) and the New York Islanders (52). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (513) and the Los Angeles Clippers (514) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-24) has lost the last three games of this series after getting upset by a 119-111 score as an 8-point underdog on Wednesday. Los Angeles (54-30) has won five of their last seven games with the opportunity to close out this series tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Utah has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Jazz have not covered the point spread in three straight games in this series — but not only have they played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games, but they have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight games. Utah misses Michael Conley as a second playmaker in this series and to take some of the pressure off Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell’s productivity has declined as the series has moved on — he made only 6 of his 19 shots on Wednesday and is shooting under 40% in the series after Game Two. The Jazz have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when facing elimination in a playoff series. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They return home where the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Clippers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (513) and the Los Angeles Clippers (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (41) and the Montreal Canadiens (42) in Game Three of their Stanley Cup Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Vegas (49-18-4) looks to rebound from their 3-2 loss at home to the Canadiens on Wednesday. Montreal (33-25-11) has won eight of their last nine games as they pulled this series even at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Knights allowed two goals in the first period in Game Two after allowing seven High Danger Chances in the first period in Game One. Vegas will tighten things up on defense to start this game. The Golden Knights have palled 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss on their home ice — and they have played 33 of their last 55 games on the road Under the Total after a loss. Vegas has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after a loss by just one goal. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. The Knights have developed a problem on offense with the upper-body injury to top-line forward Chandler Stephenson. While he does not put up big numbers, he facilitates the scoring production of wingers Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty. Stephenson is out for at least tonight’s game. Vegas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Montreal has played 21 of their last 30 home games Under the Total after a win. The Canadiens are getting outstanding goaltending from Carey Price who has a 2.14 Goals-Against-Average and a .930 save percentage in the playoffs. And Montreal is facing an elite goalie in Marc-Andre Fleury who has a 1.92 GAA and a .923 save percentage in the postseason. The Canadiens have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total. The Under is also 22-6-6 in Montreal’s last 34 games in the playoffs as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Vegas has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by one goal. 10* NHL Vegas-Montreal USA Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (41) and the Montreal Canadiens (42). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Atlanta Hawks (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (55-27) has suffered two straight upset losses in this series after losing to the Hawks at home by a 109-106 score as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Atlanta (48-34) can close out this series tonight with their 3-2 lead in the series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers took a 62-40 lead going into halftime but their shooting got ice cold as they made only 3 of their 24 shots from behind the arc in the final 24 minutes to blow that game. While it is easy to blame the offense, Doc Rivers’ team allowed the Hawks to score 40 points in the fourth quarter to steal Game Five. In general, Philadelphia has played outstanding defense after getting blitzed in the first half of the first game of this series. Since Game One, the Sixers have held the Atlanta to scoring at just a 108.4 points per 100 possessions rate. Philly’s formula to win this series is on defense. And while Atlanta wants to force the tempo to tire out Joel Embiid in the second half, Rivers will need to counter by slowing the game way down — and in a battle of tempo, slow usually beats fast. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after owning a halftime lead of 20 or more points. They hit the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total when favored. The Sixers have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Atlanta has won the last two games in this series as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset wins. Additionally, Atlanta has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Hawks’ head coach Nate McMillan having his team less reliant on 3s as this series has moved forward. Granted, Atlanta took 40 shots from behind the arc in Game Four while making only 12 of these shots. In Game Three, the Hawks attempted only 23 shots from 3-point range. On Wednesday in Game Five, the Hawks attempted only 26 shots from behind the arc, making just nine of these shots. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the playoffs as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their 4 games this season when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less, 3 of these games have finished Under the Total. 25* NBA 2nd Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Atlanta Hawks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (55-27) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 114-108 victory at home as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Milwaukee (52-29) has lost three of their last five games as they return home looking to stave off elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets won Game Five due to a Herculean effort from Kevin Durant who scored 49 points on 16 of 23 shooting from the field while playing every minute of the game. It will be difficult for Durant to come close to repeating that effort — especially with fatigue being an issue. James Harden played over 45 minutes but he was clearly hobbled with his hamstring injury. He scored only 5 points while making only 1 of his 10 shots and missing all 8 of his shots from behind the arc. Brooklyn shot 49.4% from the field on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Despite posting a historical 118.3 Offensive Rating in the regular season (despite injuries to Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving) before a 130.1 Offensive Rating in their first-round playoff series with Boston, the Nets have just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series — and they are averaging just 107 PPG against the Bucks in this series. But Brooklyn should play better on defense tonight after allowing Milwaukee to nail 49.4% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Nets have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Milwaukee enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 10 games with their 49.4% shooting percentage on Tuesday. But when the pressure mounted, the Bucks’ shooting failed — they scored only 17 points in the final 10 1/2 minutes of the fourth quarter. Milwaukee only has a 100 Offensive Rating in this series — and they have been playing at a slower pace than during the regular season. The 108 points they scored in Game Five were the most points they scored in the series. With the oddsmakers setting the Game One number just under 240, some bettors may think the Under trend is completed — and the Over is the smart play again. However, I suspect that the 108 points for the Bucks were more likely their scoring ceiling at this point. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a mess that is riddled with self-doubt at the free-throw line — and Milwaukee’s only answer for the “wall” defense that has stymied them in the postseason in the last three years is for teammates to make 3-pointers. But the Bucks are shooting just 29.3% from behind the arc in this series. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have true shooting percentages below 47% in this series. The ball movement has diminished in this series for Milwaukee as well which is impacting their efficiency. After averaging 25.5 team assists per game in the regular season, they are getting only 18.4 team assists per game. The Bucks have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Milwaukee has also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total at home after an upset loss on the road. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 25-10-1 in the Bucks’ last 36 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. While Milwaukee’s offensive attack has struggled in this series, their efforts on defense remain elite.

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the playoff series. The Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 games between these two teams — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing in Milwaukee. 25* NBA 2nd Round Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (583) and the Utah Jazz (584) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-30) evened this series at 2-2 with their 118-104 win against the Jazz as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. Utah (58-23) has lost two games in a row after riding a six-game winning streak.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 9-2-1 in the Clippers’ last 12 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least 10 points. The Clippers have declared Kawhi Leonard out tonight from the knee injury he suffered after colliding with the Jazz’s Joe Ingles with just 4:35 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Leonard’s loss hurts Los Angeles on both ends of the court — but his loss will probably impact their offensive attack the most since he is the team’s primary scorer. Paul George has a long history of not being reliable as the primary scorer in the playoffs. Everyone’s role for the Clippers becomes more important without Leonard. Marcus Morris broke out of his shooting slump on Monday by nailing 5 of his 6 shots from behind the arc — but he made only 1 of his 16 shots from 3-point range in the first three games of this series even with Leonard available as a safety blanket. The Under is 19-9-1 in Los Angeles’ last 29 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Utah has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss by 10 or more points. And while the Jazz have not covered the point spread in the last two games in this series, they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Utah is dealing with its own injury issues. Donovan Mitchell made just 9 of 26 shots from the field in Game Four as the right ankle injury he suffered seems to be impacting his play. With a 42.6% usage rate for the Jazz on offense, he may be wearing down. Michael Conley is questionable to return to the court for the first time in this series — if he does play, he not only helps the Utah offense with his playmaking but also on defense since he remains a skilled on-the-ball defender.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in Salt Lake City against the Jazz. 25* NBA Bailout Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (583) and the Utah Jazz (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (571) and the Brooklyn Nets (572) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (52-28) evened this series at 2-2 with their 107-96 upset victory at home against the Nets as a 2-point underdog. Brooklyn (54-27) had won four games in a row before the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss. And while Brooklyn had covered the point spread in their previous five games, they have then played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least four of their last five games. The Nets return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. The Nets will be without Kyrie Irving tonight after he suffered an ankle injury on Sunday. James Harden will attempt to play tonight after not playing since the opening moments of Game One when he re-injured the hamstring that kept him out for the latter part of the regular season. As we have seen with Anthony Davis in these playoffs, attempting to play when injured is not the same as being effective on the court nor lasting into the second half. Brooklyn has played 4 straight Unders against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Milwaukee only made 44.3% of their shots on Sunday — and it was still the best shooting effort in their last three games. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 34 points in the win on 14 of 26 shooting. Despite those nice numbers, I am not buying it. Antetokounmpo continued with his struggles and antics at the free-throw line as he missed five of his ten free throw attempts. He has made only 11 of his 29 (37.9%) free throws in this series. He has the yips — and it is affecting his play on the court even when he is not on the line. His fear of dealing with the demons in his head that he uses all ten seconds allotted what the charity stripe in those of quieting them down contributes to him not playing as aggressively in attacking the basket — he doesn’t want to get fouled. His free-throw shooting in the first two games in Brooklyn was even worse as he made just 2 of his 10 shots. This makes the blue-print “wall” defense against Antetokounmpo even more effective — and it compels him to settle for 3-point shot attempts even though he has made only 4 of his 21 shots from behind the arc in this series. The Greek Freak’s good game came mostly on the heels of his teammates picked him up by making 16 of their 47 shots from 3-point land — with most of their converted 3s taking place in the first half. But the Bucks have not made more than 8 shots from downtown in any other game in this series — and they have a rough 20 of 88 (22.3%) shooting percentage from 3-point range in this series. Milwaukee goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight Unders — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Brooklyn. 10* NBA Milwaukee-Brooklyn TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (571) and the Brooklyn Nets (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Islanders (11) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (12) in Game Two of their Stanley Cup Playoffs Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (41-20-8) won the opening game of this series on Sunday with their 2-1 victory. Tampa Bay (43-19-5) has still won five of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-0-1 in the Islanders’ last 6 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. The Over is also 5-2-2 in their last 9 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last contest. New York stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the number set at 5. The Over is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games when an underdog. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by just one goal. And while the Lightning have scored only three combined goals in their last two games after a 2-0 win to close out their series with Carolina, they have then played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. They host Game Two where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Lightning have played 22 of their last 30 playoff games Over the Total when trailing in a playoff series. 10* NHL Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Islanders (11) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (12). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (563) and the Los Angeles Clippers (564) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-22) had their six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 132-106 loss at the Staples Center to the Clippers as a 4.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (52-30) still trails 2-1 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jazz allowed the Clippers to make 56.2% of their shots in Game Three which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 47 games. Utah has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at 55% of their shots. The Jazz have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after giving up at least 130 points in their last game. Additionally, Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Los Angeles’ 56.2% shooting percentage was the best offensive effort in their last seven games. But the Clippers have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Head coach Tyronn Lue made a defensive adjustment on defending Donovan Mitchell on Saturday by having his primary defender challenge him earlier up the court. That tactical change helped the Clippers play their best defensive game in the series, overall while limiting the Jazz to 42.9% shooting. Los Angeles stays at home where the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Additionally, the Under is 20-7-3 in the Clippers’ last 30 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Under is 10-4-2 in their last 16 games in the playoffs when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Michael Conley has been declared out for this game with the hamstring injury that has kept him out of this series. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. 25* NBA 2nd Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (563) and the Los Angeles Clippers (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (553) and the Denver Nuggets (554) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (58-23) has won six games in a row to take a 3-0 lead in this series after their 116-102 victory on the road against the Nuggets as a 2-point underdog on Friday. Denver (51-30) looks to stave off elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns’ offense may get most of the attention — but the defense has been outstanding for head coach Monty Williams’ team. They have held five of their last six opponents to no better than 41.8% shooting. Phoenix has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset victory by double-digits on the road as an underdog. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. The Suns have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total as a favorite. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better, the Under is 6-1-1. Denver has lost all three games in this series by at least 14 points — and they have played 49 of their last 78 games at home Under the Total after losing at least two in a row by at least 10 points. And while each game in this series has seen at least 218 combined points, the Nuggets have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after playing at least three games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Denver has also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. The handicapping instincts say to play the Nuggets tonight for a number of reasons — but I am passing due to my concerns over Michael Porter, Jr. The second scoring option to Nikola Jokic has been hobbled with a back injury which probably has much to do with him not scoring more than 15 points in the first three games of this series. The season-ending injury to Jamal Murray and now he slowed Porter leaves the Nuggets without complementary scorers for Jokic. The league MVP scored 32 points with 20 rebonds and 10 assists in Game Three — yet they only managed 102 points. They scored 105 and 98 points in Game One and Two. The Under is 8-1-2 in Denver’s last 11 games in the Western Conference Semifinals — and they have played 5 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in the Pepsi Center in Denver. And in the Nuggets’ last 6 games when avenging a double-digit loss at home, Denver has played 5 of these games Under the Total. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (553) and the Denver Nuggets (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (551) and the Milwaukee Bucks (552) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (51-28) won their first game in this series with their 86-83 victory at home against the Nets as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. Brooklyn (54-26) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Game Three of this series was a fascinating result (from afar). Milwaukee made only 37.8% of their shots in the win which was the lowest field goal percentage of the season. But they were able to win the game via their ferocious play on defense — they held Brooklyn to 36.2% shooting which was their second-best defensive game of the season since Game Two of the regular season (77 games ago). I track these numbers because I want to identify outlier performances to bet against. In this instance, I suspect those numbers are a harbinger of things to come in this series — they are trends rather than outliers. The Bucks scored only 86 points in Game Two on 44.0% shooting. The four-game sweep against Miami temporarily obscured that Milwaukee has not solved its “wall” problem that opposing teams have used in the postseason to neutralize Giannis Antetokounmpo. With the Bucks playing four shooters outside the 3-point line, the Greek Freak has success in the regular season driving the lane with all the cleared space. But their playoff opponents have not taken the bait but instead, play a wall in the interior — a quasi-roaming 2-3 zone defense — to thwart these potential Antetokounmpo drives. An active Antetokounmpo can challenge this defense — exerting energy and getting to the free-throw line. Or, he can play outside as well and take 3-pointers. Or, he can settle for two-point jump shots just inside the arc. Or, he can drive the lane and dish to his open opponents. None of this works if Giannis is off his game … and Giannis is off his game. He has missed 6 of 19 free throw attempts while hushing the Milwaukee crowd to not cheer “MVP” at the line and twice getting whistled for a ten-second violation as he tries to quiet the demons in his head at the stripe. He has the yips. And his fear of failure at the free-throw line is taking away his ambition to drive. So he settles for jumpers — yet he made only 1 of 8 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. If he takes a shot just inside the arc, the defense has already won given the low probability of that 2-point shot. Antetokounmpo can dish to his teammates — but the team made only 6 of their 31 (19.3%) shots from downtown. The whole team senses their leader’s anxiety. The Plan B to Giannis not making shots is the Bucks’ system that emphasizes maximizing shot value from 3-pointers. The critics love to blame Budenholzer for his inability to adapt — but there is simply little he can turn to. Rather than blaming Budenholzer, maybe he should be credited for getting the most out of the talent available to him. The team needs a reliable complementary scoring option to Giannis — but Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday may be third options being asked to take on the number two role. And what if Antetokounmpo is really not a number one option himself? Blame Budenholzer! Where Budenhozler continues to adapt is on defense — that is the route from which the Bucks can win this series. They have slowed down the high-powered Nets offense to just 107.7 PPG. And the pace is slowing down. After averaging 102.2 possessions per game in the regular season, Milwaukee's pace was 97.7 on Thursday. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 6 straight Unders against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn should have fresh legs on defense — they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. And in their last 35 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Nets have played 24 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight meetings Under the Total. I expect more of the same with the market slow to react to the new realities of this series. 25* NBA 2nd Round ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (551) and the Milwaukee Bucks (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (57-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 123-98 victory at home against the Nuggets as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Denver (51-29) has lost three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Even with the easy win, the Suns made 47.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They have been an offensive juggernaut in this series against the suspect Nuggets’ defense — they are scoring 125.6 points per 100 possessions in this series. Phoenix has an effective field goal percentage of 59.7% in the first two games while nailing 40.3% of their 3-point attempts. Denver has allowed their opponents to make 42.2% of their shots from behind the arc in the postseason. Chris Paul looks healthy again after playing through that stinger injury. He scored 17 points on 6 of 10 shooting while assisting on another 15 baskets and not committing a turnover. The Suns have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have also played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after scoring at least 120 points. They go on the road where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Phoenix has also played 12 of their last 16 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Denver had their worst shooting game in their last four contests by making only 40% of their shots. They return home where they are scoring 117.9 PPG on 48.4% shooting and 37.8% shooting from behind the arc. Unfortunately for head coach Michael Malone, the 47.9% shooting percentage they allowed Phoenix to generate was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. They have allowed the Suns to score at least 112 points in four of their five meetings this season. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. They return home where the Over is 39-19-2 in their last 60 games. They have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. Denver has also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging two straight losses against their opponent. 25* NBA 2nd Round ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Italy (234001) and Turkey (234002) in a Group A match in the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Italy begins their Euro 2020 after playing last Friday when they defeated the Czech Republic by a 4-0 score in a friendly at home. Turkey last played on Thursday of last week when they defeated Moldova by a 2-0 score in a friendly. This match will be played at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Italy is traditionally a defensive-oriented club. After a decline in quality which saw them fail to qualify for the 2018 World Cup in Russia after competing in 12 straight World Cups and Euros, the national team went to former Manchester City head coach Roberto Mancini to right the ship. The Azzuri are unbeaten in 27 matches under his guidance with seven straight clean sheets across all competitions. They only allowed four goals in their ten matches in the Euro qualifying matches. Playing at home, I expect the Italians to be a bit nervy in this opening match delayed a full year due to the COVID global pandemic. This team will have a strong defense led by the Juventus center back pairing of Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini. Cohesion from the familiarity of club teammates is one of the things I look for in these early international tournaments. Italy has one of the world’s rising stars as well in goaltender Gianluigi Donnarumma who stars for AC Milan. They also have a quality defensive midfielder in Jorginho who helped Chelsea just win the Champions League. The Blues will be without one of their key offensive pieces in midfielder Marco Verratti who has been training alone as he battles a knee injury. The Paris-Saint Germain star missed his last three matches for his professional club. Without Verratti, the Italian scoring burden will be further placed on Ciro Immobile at forward — but he has only 12 goals in 45 international competitions. Turkey can also play stout defense — they allowed only three goals in their ten Euro qualifying matches with eighth clean sheets. That was the fewest goals allowed in the entire qualifying stage. They did allow 19 goals in their next 11 matches across all competitions after completing the Euro qualification — but I suspect that was due to a change in tactics from their cagey manager Senol Gunes to see what he has with this group while putting them in different situations. Gunes was the skipper of the Turkish national team in 2002 when they finished in third place at the World Cup. He returns to coach the Crescent-Stars who have the youngest roster in this competition. But there is talent. Center back Caglar Soyuncu starts for Leicester City. Right back Zeki Celik started for Lille who won the Ligue 1 title. They have a good keep in Ugurcan Cakir. There are two other Lille players in the starting XI in Burak Yilmaz and Yusuf Yazici up top who will likely be instructed to be aggressive only on the counter-attack. Turkey’s top goal-scorer in the qualifying stage was Cenk Tosan — but the Everton forward not playing in this tournament due to a knee injury.

FINAL TAKE: Turkey would love a draw in this contest — so their tactics should be defensive in nature. Frankly, Italy would not be too distressed with a draw either against this Crescent-Stars team that is dangerous out of this group. Winnable matches remain against Wales and Switzerland — and the top two teams from the Group advance. Two defensive teams in the opening match? I do not expect more than two combined goals to be scored. 10* Euro 2020 Italy-Turkey ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between Italy (234001) and Turkey (234002). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (51-28) had their two game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 122-105 loss at Phoenix as a 6-point underdog in the opening game of this series. Phoenix (56-23) has won four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets only made 46.7% of their shots on Monday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. Nikola Jokic was just 10 of 23 from the field in the game for 22 points. It was just the third time in 79 games this season that Jokic’s point total was below his shot attempts number. Jokic did not attempt a free throw attempt either which had only happened four other times this season. Phoenix’s Deandre Ayton was only whistled for one personal foul in his 38 minutes of play. Jokic only had three assists despite averaging 8.3 Assists-Per-Game for the season. He should be more active and aggressive tonight which will help the Nuggets approach or top their 118.6 Points-Per-Game scoring average in the playoffs. Denver has played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Over is 18-7-1 in the Nuggets’ last 26 games after a loss by 10 or more points. Michael Porter only scored 15 points in Game One while not playing for most of the second half with a sore back. He has initially listed as questionable, but he has been upgraded as probable to play tonight. He should play better tonight as well in his role as the primary scoring complement to Jokic. Denver stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Denver has played 6 of their last 7 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog. Phoenix has seen the Over go 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 24-9-1 in their last 34 games after a point spread victory. The Suns have also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. Phoenix makes 49.8% of their shots at home this season with them averaging 115.8 PPG. They had balanced scoring against the Nuggets on Monday with four players scoring at least 20 points. Chris Paul looked as healthy as he has since suffering the stinger injury in the Lakers series. He made 8 of 14 shots for 23 points and added 11 assists. The Suns have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total at home against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on the road. Phoenix has also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round Wednesday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (41) and the New York Islanders (42) in Game Six of their East Division Finals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (39-18-9) has lost the last two games in this series after their 5-4 loss to the Islanders on Monday. New York (39-20-8) has a 3-2 lead in this series which they can end tonight with a victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Bruce Cassidy pulled Tuukka Rask after two periods in this game after he allowed four goals on 16 shots. It was later revealed that Rask was dealing with an injury — but he is expected to play tonight. He should play better tonight — the Under is 4-0-1 in the Bruins’ last 5 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. Boston has also played 13 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after allowing at least five goals in their last game. The Bruins have played 32 of their last 51 games Under the Total after a game where at least three combined goals were scored by both teams. Now they go on the road where the Under is 6-2-2 in their last 10 games. The games in Boston have been high-scoring with 23 combined goals scored in the three games. But in the two previous games in Long Island at Nassau Coliseum, only eight combined goals have been scored with two of them empty netters. With head coach Barry Trotz having the home-ice advantage of making the last line move, he can ensure that Jean-Gabriel Pageau is on the ice to lead the defensive charge against the Perfection Line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak. The Under is 5-1-1 in the Islanders’ last 7 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after a game where at least nine combined goals were scored. And while the Islanders gave up two goals in the third period after taking a 5-2 lead, they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under Total after allowing two or more goals in the third period of their last game.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total when playing at Nassau Coliseum. Boston has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss at home. 10* NHL Boston-NY Islanders NBC Sports Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (41) and the New York Islanders (42). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (503) and the Utah Jazz (504) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (51-28) has won four of their last five games after defeating Dallas in Game Seven of their playoff series by a 126-111 score as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. Utah (56-21) has won four in a row after dispatching Memphis in five games with their 126-110 win as a 9-point favorite last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers saved their best 3-point shooting performance for Game Seven as they nailed 20 of their 43 shots (46.5%) en route to a 50% shooting percentage for the game. That was Los Angeles’ best shooting effort in their last four games. They also allowed the Mavericks to nail 49.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five contests. The Under is 7-2-1 in the Clippers’ last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Clippers go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and the Under is 18-8-1 in their last 27 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Utah may be rusty with their shooting touch after the six-day layoff after ending their series with the Grizzlies. They made 51.6% of their shots in Game Five which was the best shooting effort in their previous three games. The Jazz have played five straight Overs — but they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Toal after playing at least four straight Overs. Utah has allowed at least 110 points in five straight contests — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 105 points in at least four straight games. They also have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 105 points in five straight games. The Jazz’s defense will present a problem for the Clippers — they ranked third in the NBA by holding their opponents to 107.5 points per 100 possessions. Utah allowed only 10.9 make 3-pointers per game, the lowest in the league during the regular season. They also lead the NBA by holding their opponents to just 50.4% shooting inside the arc. The Jazz host the first two games of this series where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 24 of their last 35 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Under is 6-0-2 in the Clippers’ last 8 games in Western Conference Semifinals. 25* NBA 2nd Round Tuesday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (503) and the Utah Jazz (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (583) and the Phoenix Suns (584) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (51-27) has won four of their last five games after defeating the Trail Blazers in six games last round with their 126-115 win in Portland as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday. Phoenix (55-23) has won three in a row after their 113-100 upset win in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 2-point underdog on Thursday to close that series out in six games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets made 51.2% of their shots to close out their series with the Blazers which was the highest field goal percentage in their last four games. Denver also allowed Portland to make 50.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset win by 10 or more points. Denver has also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. The Under is also 6-0-2 in the Nuggets’ last 8 games in the Western Conference Semifinals. Phoenix made 50.7% of their shots in Game Six against the Lakers which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. They also saw Los Angeles make 41.8% of their shots which was actually the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Suns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset victory against a divisional foe. Phoenix has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored. The Under is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix will be looking to avenge a 120-112 loss at Denver on January 23rd — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home court. 10* NBA Denver-Phoenix TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (583) and the Phoenix Suns (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (581) and the Brooklyn Nets (582) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (50-27) had their four-game winning streak snapped with their 115-107 loss at Brooklyn as a 3.5-point underdog in Game One of this series on Saturday. Brooklyn (53-25) has won three straight games as well as 10 of their last 11 contests.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks endured the combination of some bad shooting luck and just an underachieving effort on the offensive end of the court on Saturday. They made only 6 of their 30 shots from behind the arc. They missed 8 of their 19 free throw attempts. They shot just 44.6% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Milwaukee should approach their 48.6% field goal percentage along with their 38.3% mark from 3-point land and their 78.3% free throw percentage when on the road tonight. They should be encouraged by the 15 offensive rebounds they pulled down on Saturday. Their size advantage should help them get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities all series — and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez should dominate with their inside scoring. Milwaukee outrebounded the Nets by a 58-47 margin — and they have outrebounded their last five opponents by at least 11 boards. The Bucks have played 41 of their last 63 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 boards. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least 10 boards — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last five opponents by at least 10 boards. We had the Under for Game One — and that game finished well below the 239.5 point total. But Milwaukee has played 21 of their last 33 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. I expected rust for Game One — and now I expect fresh legs and better shooting. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing their second game in five days. Milwaukee stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher. The Bucks have also played 5 of their last 7 second games in a playoff series Over the Total. Brooklyn only made 46.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting percentage in their last three games. The team was rattled early after James Harden re-injuring his hamstring. The Nets will adjust to Harden’s absence tonight out of the gate. They play at a faster pace without Harden on the court since he prefers to slow things down when he gets a defender in isolation. And the modus operandi for rookie head coach  Steve Nash to any problem is to play at a faster pace (what else from a devotee of Mike D’Antoni?). In the 19 games the Mets played without Harden in the regular season, the average combined score was 236. Brooklyn has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning two straight games at home. The Nets have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 35 of their last 57 games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee’s expected points based on their shot quality from 3-point range adds 15  points to their Total in Game One — and their expected points overall rise to 127. Kris Middleton only made 6 of 23 shots for 13 points — but his expected points based on his shot selection were 27 points. Brooklyn’s shot quality produced 123.5 expected points. Given the pace of play in Game One which I do not expect to change, the Regression Gods should see this game finish Over the Total. The Bucks have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing at Brooklyn. 25* NBA 2nd Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (581) and the Brooklyn Nets (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:38 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (23) and the Vegas Golden Knights (24) in Game Four of their West Division playoff series. THE SITUATION: Colorado (45-14-4) saw their 11-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 3-2 loss on the road against the Golden Knights. Vegas (45-17-4) now trails in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Avalanche have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by just one goal. Colorado has also played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. The Avalanche are getting great goaltending from Philip Grubauer desire his allowing as many goals in the third game of this series as he had in the first two games combined. Grubauer has a 1.86 Goals-Against-Average and a .941 save percentage in the playoffs. After taking advantage of their long break in Game One of this series by overwhelming a Golden Knights team suffering from the hangover of their seven-game series with Minnesota, Colorado has only averaged 22.5 shots per game in the last two games. They miss second-line center Nazeem Kadri who is still serving the suspension he was served in that opening-round series with the Blues. The Avalanche have played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total. Getting Marc-Andre Fleury back on the ice has changed the tenor of this series for Vegas. Fleury has a 1.88 Goals-Against-Average and a .922 save percentage in the playoffs. Vegas is also committed to playing defense-first — they lead all playoff teams with 141 blocked shots. They are second of the teams in the postseason with 373 hits in the playoffs. The Golden Knights have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series. They will likely continue to be thin at forward with both Mattias Janmark and Tomos Nosek questionable with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games in Las Vegas Under the Total. Colorado has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 10* NHL Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (23) and the Vegas Golden Knights (24). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (21) and the Montreal Canadiens (22) in Game Three of their North Division Finals series. THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (34-25-3) has lost the first two games of this series after their 1-0 loss at home to Montreal on Friday. Montreal (30-24-11) has won five straight games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I waited to get confirmation on some injury updates for the Jets this afternoon. It looks like Paul Stastny will be playing after not playing the first two games of the series. He gives Winnipeg some much-needed pop at center (and I not upgrading the play to a 20* or 25* play with him playing). The Jets simply lack many scorers on the ice with top-line center Mark Scheifele serving his four-game suspension from Game One. While Winnipeg peppered Carey Price with 30 shots, not many of the shots had a high probability of scoring. The Jets registers a mere 1.83 expected goals in the loss. Center Pierre-Luc Dubois looks like a shell of the player that excelled in the bubble for Columbus last year. He has been underwhelming all season and in these playoffs. But Winnipeg continues to get great goaltending from Conner Hellebuyck who stopped 23 of 24 shots on Friday. He has a 1.87 Goals-Against-Average and a .940 save percentage in the playoffs. The Jets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing two in a row. They have played 4 straight road games Under the Total. And in their last 10 games in the playoffs as an underdog, Winnipeg has played 7 of these games Under the Total. Montreal has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win — and they have 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after a victory by just one goal against a division rival. The Canadiens have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Montreal is getting great goaltending from Carey Price who has a 2.08 GAA and a .935 save percentage in the playoffs. The Canadiens return home where the Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Winnipeg has lost three games in a row to Montreal going back to the regular season — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when playing by triple revenge. 10* NHL Winnipeg-Montreal NBC Sports Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (21) and the Montreal Canadiens (22). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (573)  and the Los Angeles Clippers (574) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (45-33) looks to bounce back from their 104-97 loss at home against the Clippers as a 3-point underdog in Game Six. Los Angeles (50-28) has won three of the last four games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 7-1-1 in the Clippers’ last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Head coach Tyron Lue has made some critical adjustments in this series to slow down the Mavericks’ dynamic offensive attack. He decided to simply not play Ivica Zubic when Luka Doncic is on the court since he was getting torched on the pick-and-roll. Going with a small lineup of Reggie Jackson and Nicolas Batum for Zubic and Patrick Beverley has been a game-changer for the Clippers. Beverley is not the same player on defense — and he has never been much of a scorer, so he is a liability if he has lost his defensive prowess. And now facing elimination, Kawhi Leonard is finally defending Doncic — he held him to 2 of 6 shooting in the times he guarded him on Friday. I expect Leonard to take on this defensive assignment even more for this Game Seven. The Clippers held the Mavericks to 41.6% shooting which was the highest field goal percentage that Dallas has managed in the last three games. Los Angeles has played 24 of their last 32 home games Under the Total after holding their last three opponents to no higher than 42% shooting. The Under is 7-1-1 in the Clippers’ last 9 games at home. The Mavericks were on fire with their 3-point shooting by making 47.2% and 52.9% of their 3-pointers in the first two games in this series. But the Regression Gods made their appearance and the Mavs have not been the same from behind the arc. They made only 11 of their 34 shots (32.4%) of their 3-pointers in Game Six. Dallas goes back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Additionally, the Mavericks have played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 22 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, Dallas has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog, the Mavericks have played  5 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total. Dallas has also played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 10* NBA Dallas-LA Clippers ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (573)  and the Los Angeles Clippers (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (571) and the Philadelphia 76ers (572) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION:  Atlanta (45-32) has won eight of their last nine games after their 103-89 victory at New York as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday to close out that series in five games. Philadelphia (53-24) has won six of their last seven games with their 129-112 victory against Washington as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday to end that series in five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Atlanta made a dramatic improvement once Nate McMillan became their head coach midseason — and the team is playing much better on the defensive end of the court. The Hawks have held their last eight opponents to no better than 44.2% shooting — and six of their last seven opponents have not topped 42% shooting. The rest should help this team as they have played 6 straight Unders when playing their second game in seven days. But the offensive attack for this team wanes when they are on the road. Atlanta averaged 119.3 points per 100 possessions at home during the regular season — but that mark dropped to them scoring only 104.0 points per 100 possessions when on the road. The Hawks have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Atlanta has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total as a dog. Philadelphia has played 35 of their last 51 home games Under the Total after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. The team will likely be without Joel Embiid who is nursing a meniscus tear in his right knee. Embiid plays a critical role for the team on both ends of the court — but his impact is probably more important on offense. Going into Game Five of the Washington series, the 76ers were scoring +11.2 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court this season. In that series (after Game Four), the Sixers have scored +38 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid playing. They were scoring only 104.9 points per 100 possessions without Embiid in this series (after Game Four) with a 49.4% effective field goal percentage. Philly torched the defensively challenged Wizards by making 51.2% of their shots on Wednesday — but Washington loves to play at a fast pace which helped them get open looks. Atlanta slows the pace down — so getting good looks will be more of a challenge. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals — and they have played 3 of their last 4 opening games to a new series Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Embiid is going to start this afternoon. Frankly, I am not sure how effective he will be on the offensive end of the court — but his presence protecting the rim will probably help our Under play, overall. These teams last played on April 30th when the Sixers crashed Atlanta at home by a 126-104 score. Atlanta has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (571) and the Philadelphia 76ers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Brooklyn Nets (562) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (50-26) has won seven of their last eight games after sweeping against the Heat in four games after their 120-103 victory on the road in Miami as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Brooklyn (52-25) returns to the court for the first time since Tuesday after they completed their four-game sweep of Boston in Round One of the playoffs with their 123-109 victory as a 12.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks’ closing game with the Heat finished Over the 223 point total — and they have played 28 of their last 44 games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Over the Total. They hit the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. Milwaukee has also played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last six opening games to a new playoff series, the Bucks have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Brooklyn has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They host this game where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Both teams may be a bit rusty in this opening game after a long layoff. Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Brooklyn has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing with at least three days of rest. With the Total installed in the high 230s, it does not take too many missed shots and slowed possessions for this opening game to finish below the number. 10* NBA Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Brooklyn Nets (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (13) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (14) in Game Four of their Central Division finals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (41-14-10) won their first game in this series with their 3-2 win in overtime on Thursday. Tampa Bay (41-18-5) still holds a 2-1 lead in the series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: There have only been five combined goals scored in this series when playing at even strength. Of the 11 goals scored in the first three games of this series, six of them have been on a power play. The Lightning are averaging only 1.82 expected goals per game at even strength, down from the 2.37 expected goals mark they were average in the previous 20 games before this series began. The Under is 4-1-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 6 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. The Lightning are getting outstanding goaltending from Andrei Vasileskiy who has a 2.29 Goals-Against-Average and a .935 save percentage in these playoffs. Tampa Bay lost two games in their opening-round series against Florida — and they allowed only two combined goals in the follow-up to those two games. The Lightning have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing at home with a lead in the playoffs. Carolina is only averaging 1.85 expected goals per game at five-on-five in this series. That mark is down from the 2.43 expected goals they were averaging per game in the previous 20 games entering this series. The Hurricanes are undermanned with three of their top nine forwards dealing with injuries. Vincent Trocheck and Warren Foegele questionable with injuries they have suffered in this series. Nino Niederreiter has missed the first three games of this series after incurring an injury in practice — he is not likely to appear in this series. Carolina stays on the road where they have played 8 straight Unders as an underdog. The Hurricanes have played 8 of their last 12 playoff games Under the Total when trailing the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 14-3-1 in their last 18 games — and the Under is 13-3-1 in their last 17 meetings in Tampa Bay. The Lightning have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home ice against their opponent. 20* NHL Carolina-Tampa Bay O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (13) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (14). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (9) and the Vegas Golden Knights (10) in Game Three of their West Division Finals series. THE SITUATION: Colorado (45-13-4) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Wednesday with their 3-2 win in overtime against the Golden Knights in Game Two. Vegas (44-17-4) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Knights have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a loss in overtime — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by just one goal. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. Vegas led the NHL in the regular season by allowing only 2.18 Goals-Per-Game. They got a steadier performance from goalie Marc-Andre Fleury on Wednesday after Robin Lehner was a disaster in Game One. Fleury has a 1.86 Goals-Against-Average and a .924 save percentage in the postseason. Colorado is also getting outstanding goaltending from Philipp Grubauer who made 39 saves in Game Two. He has a 1.66 GAA and a .943 save percentage in these playoffs. The Avalanche have played 22 of their last 33 road games Under the Total after a win by just one goal. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing their second game in five days. They won Game One against Vegas by a 7-1 score — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than two goals in four straight games. And while Colorado has scored at least three goals in eight straight games (since their last trip to Vegas in a 2-1 win on May 10th that determined the regular-season winner of the West Division), they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after scoring at least three goals in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total. And in the Golden Knights' last 29 home games when avenging a loss by just one goal, they have played 20 of these games Under the Total. 10* NHL Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (9) and the Vegas Golden Knights (10). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (557) and the Dallas Mavericks (558) in Game Six of the Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-28) looks to stave off elimination after losing Game Five of this series with their 105-100 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Dallas (45-32) returns home with the opportunity to close out this series with their 3-2 lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers have palled 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. And in their last 7 games played with one day of rest, the Under is 5-1-1. Los Angeles hits the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Furthermore, the Clippers have played 18 of their last 26 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Under is 10-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 15 games as a favorite — and the Under is 9-2-2 in their last 13 games when favored in the playoffs. Dallas benefited from a resurgent performance from Luka Doncic who rebounded from his subpar 9 of 24 shooting mark in Game Four with a 42 point night on Wednesday which included him nailing 6 of 12 shots from behind the arc. Doncic also assisted on 14 baskets in Game Four — he scored or assisted on all but six of the Mavericks’ field goals. He clearly benefited from the extra second day of rest. But this game is being played with one day of rest — will Doncic be able to recover from his injured neck that seemed to hold him back in Game Four? This is Dallas’ fourth game in the last ten days — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing just their fourth game in ten days. The Mavericks held the Clippers to 41.2% shooting on Wednesday. Head coach Rick Carlisle had this team playing better on the defensive end of the court to close out the regular season. While the Mavs ranked 21st in the season in Defensive Efficiency, they were 13th in that metric over their last 15 games. They return home where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Dallas has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that played at the 26th and 28th slowest paces in the league in the regular season. That helps explain why they have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games in Dallas Under the Total. The Clippers have played 26 of their last 41 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (557) and the Dallas Mavericks (558) in Game Six of the Western Conference Quarterfinals series. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (3) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (4) in Game Three of their Central Division Finals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (40-14-10) has lost the opening two games of this series after their 2-1 loss to the Lightning on Tuesday. Tampa Bay (41-18-4) has six of their last eight games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hurricanes have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Additionally, Carolina has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they did not score more than two goals in their last game — and they have played 30 of their last 47 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one goal in their last game. The Hurricanes are losing important players on their second forward line to injuries. Nino Niederreiter is “very, very doubtful” according to head coach Rod Brind’Amour to play in this series. Vincent Troceck has been downgraded to doubtful with an injury. Niederreiter had 20 goals in the regular season while Trocheck re-emerged with 17 goals and 26 assists in 47 games after a down season the previous season with Florida that resulted in a trade deadline deal to the Canes. The loss of these forwards makes it easier for the Lightning to choose their preferred defensive pair to slow down the top-line. Sebastian Aho has not registered a point in this series. Andrei Svechnikov has scored only two goals in the playoffs. Teuvo Teravainen has only two goals in the playoffs as well. With this series returning to Tampa Bay, Lightning head coach Jon Cooper has the advantage of making the final line change. Carolina has played 7 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 16 trips to Tampa Bay, the Under is 12-3-1. Tampa Bay (41-18-4) has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory. The Under is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. Andrei Vasileskiy has been outstanding in this series by stopping 68 of the 70 shots he has faced. Not only does he have a .971 save percentage in this series, but he has made +3.78 saves above expectation. The Lightning have played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. They have only scored two goals in this series — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when on the road playing with two revenge for two straight losses where they did not score more than one goal. 10* NHL Carolina-Tampa Bay USA Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (3) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (4). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (79) and the Colorado Avalanche (80) in Game Two of their West Division Finals series. THE SITUATION: Vegas (44-17-3) looks to bounce back from their 7-1 loss to the Avalanche on Sunday. Colorado (44-13-4) has won ten games in a row with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Avalanche offensive attack looks unstoppable right now. Colorado has scored at least four goals in seven straight games — and they have scored at least five goals in six of these games. Colorado has played 4 straight Overs after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game. Additionally, the Avalanche have 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning at least four games in a row. They have played 9 straight Overs after scoring at least four goals in four straight games. They have won every game in the postseason by at least three goals — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games by at least three goals. The Avalanche are likely to give up their share of goals tonight as well — they have not registered a shutout in six straight games. Colorado has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. The Avalanche stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 straight Overs when playing at home with two days of rest. The Over is also 19-7-1 in Colorado’s last 27 playoff games when favored. Vegas continues to play without one of their top defensemen in Brayden McNabb is in COVID quarantine. The Golden Knights have allowed more than one goal in four straight games. Despite scoring only one time on Sunday, their expected goals in all situations was 2.39. They were also defending against Colorado power plays for much of that game. Vegas has played 7 straight playoff games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Golden Knights have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by at least four goals. 25* NHL 2nd Round Wednesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (79) and the Colorado Avalanche (80). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (81) and the Winnipeg Jets (82) in Game One of their North Division Finals series. THE SITUATION: Montreal (28-24-11) takes the ice after completing their seven-game upset victory against Toronto on Monday with their 3-1 victory. Winnipeg (34-23-3) returns to action for the first time since May 24th when they completed their four-game sweep of Edmonton in the opening round.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Canadiens have become comfortable grinding out lower-scoring games after slowing down the powerful Maple Leafs' attack. Carey Price seems to have found his game after posting a 2.24 Goals-Against-Average and a .932 save percentage in the opening round. Montreal has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Winnipeg is also getting great goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck who enjoyed a 1.60 Goals-Against-Average and a .950 save percentage in his four games against the Oilers. The Jets’ forwards may be rusty in this game with the extended time off. The Under is 15-7-2 in Winnipeg’s last 24 games when playing with at least three days since their last game. The Under is also 5-2-1 in the Jets’ last 8 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 6-1-1 in Winnipeg’s last 8 games in the playoffs when favored — and the Under is 21-5-4 in the Canadiens’ last 30 games in the playoff games in the playoffs. 20* NHL Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (81) and the Winnipeg Jets (82). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (537) and the Philadelphia 76ers (538) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Washington (36-42) kept their season alive on Monday with their 122-114 upset victory against the 76ers as an 8.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (52-24) had been on a five-game winning streak.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid for at least this game after he injured his back early in the game on Monday. He only played 11:24 minutes of the game. His absence played a large role in Philly shooting only 41.7% from the field. Embiid plays a critical role for the team on both ends of the court — but his impact is probably more important on offense. The 76ers score +11.2 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court this season. In this series, the Sixers have scored +38 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid playing. They are scoring only 104.9 points per 100 possessions without Embiid in this series with a 49.4% effective field goal percentage. As it is, Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 76ers have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Philadelphia has also played 35 of their last 50 home games Under the Total after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. Washington got 12 first quarter points from Davis Bertans to keep them competitive early in the game. But Bertans later suffered a calf strain that will likely keep him out the rest of this series. He is critical to the Wizards’ offense since he is the team’s best 3-pointer shooter — he made 39.4% of his shots from behind the arc in the regular season. His long distance shooting helps to open up space for Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook to slash to the basket. Washington only made 35.6% of their 3-pointers in the regular season -- ranking 24th in the league — even with a healthy Bertans. Washington has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win as an underdog getting at least 7 points. The Wizards have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Washington has also played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: In the 10 games in late March that the Sixers played without Embiid, 7 of these games finished Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when favored. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (537) and the Philadelphia 76ers (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Washington Wizards (512) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (52-23) has won five games in a row with their 132-103 road victory against the Wizards as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Washington (35-42) has lost eight of their last nine games as they face elimination trailing 0-3 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers made 58.6% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting percentage for them in their last 68 games. While I appreciate that the Wizards have no answer for Joel Embiid, they are not likely to shoot that well from the field again tonight. Philadelphia is averaging 125.7 PPG on 54.5% shooting from the field in this series. The last team to do that was the 1985 Los Angeles Lakers with Magic Johnson and Kareem-Abdul Jabbar. It is simply very difficult to continue shooting and scoring at such a prolific rate — even against mediocre defensive teams. And if the Sixers are winning this game easily, head coach Doc Rivers is likely to rest his starters to ensure nothing happens injury-wise before their showdown with Milwaukee in the next round of the playoffs. As it is, Philadelphia has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road. The 76ers have also played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 15 road games as a favorite, Philadelphia has played 12 of these games Under the Total. Additionally, the 76ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series. Washington should play better on defense — the Sixers’ 58.6% field goal percentage was their highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 69 games. The Wizards were playing better on defense to close out the regular season. Once they got back to full health, Washington went on a 17 of 22 winning streak where they ranked eighth in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss at home by 10 or more points. The Wizards have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. And in their last 21 games after just a point spread loss, Washington has played 15 of these games Under the Total. The Wizards only made 39.6% of their shots on Saturday — and they have a fundamental problem in this series. Washington lives close to the basket on offense — they led the NBA in the regular season with the most shot attempts and the highest field goal percentage from three feet to ten feet from the basket. But with Joel Embiid patrolling the paint, the Sixers have a rim protector that is stifling the Wizards’ attack. Washington stays at home for Game Four where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 220s. Additionally, the Wizards have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Russell Westbrook and Ish Smith are both questionable for this game with injuries. Westbrook is dealing with a right ankle sprain. If they don’t play, the offensive attack for the Wizards will be shorthanded. Even if they play, their injuries may limit their shooting effectiveness. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when hosting the 76ers. 25* NBA 1st Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Washington Wizards (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (63) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (64) in Game Seven of their North Division Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Montreal (27-24-11) forced a climactic Game Seven with their 3-2 victory in overtime on Saturday. Toronto (38-16-8) has blown a 3-1 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Maple Leafs have not won a playoff series in 17 years — and now they face their nightmare scenario of blowing a big lead in a Game Seven on their home ice in front of their very anxious fans. The pressure will be tremendous — and I expect Toronto to be very tight tonight. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have not handled the pressure very well so far in this series. Both players have generated only four points in the first six games of this series — and only Matthews has scored with one goal. These players may be tired — head coach Sheldon Keefe is playing both stars for plenty of minutes including Marner serving on the Power Play Kill Unit. Previous head coach Mike Babcock managed minutes much differently before getting canned last year for not playing Mathews enough in regular-season games. Well, Babcock has won Stanley Cups — and Keefe was a minor league coach before getting promoted. The overtime periods in the last two games have not helped the energy levels of these stars — and Toronto has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row in overtime. The Maple Leafs have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing their sixth or more games in ten days (this series started on May 20th with Game Two on May 22nd). Additionally, Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Montreal has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home. The Canadiens have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. And while Montreal took a 2-0 lead by scoring two goals in the third period — but they then allowed two goals in the final nine minutes of the game to force overtime. The Canadiens have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing two or more goals in the third period. Carey Price has found his game in this series — the goaltender he has a 2.44 Goals-Against-Average against the fourth highest-scoring team in the NHL with a .926 save percentage. He has a .877 save percentage against high danger scoring chances which is one of the reasons that Matthews and Marner are slumping. Montreal has played 15 of their last 22 games on the road Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 20-5-4 in the Canadiens’ last 29 games in the playoffs as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. The Under is also 8-3-1 in the last 12 games between these two teams. 25* NHL 1st Round Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (63) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (64). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (48-27) won the first game in this series on Friday with their 118-108 victory at Dallas as a 2.5-point road favorite as a 2.5-point favorite. Dallas (44-31) holds a 2-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers have improved their shooting from the field in each game in this series after making 57.1% of their shots in Game Three. That was the highest field goal percentage for this Los Angeles team in their last 20 games. The Clippers made only 44.9% of their shots in Game One. Even with head coach Tyron Lue substituting defense for offense with his benching of Patrick Beverley for Reggie Jackson, LA is due for some regression on offense. The Clippers have been scoring at an unsustainable 127.5 points per 100 possession rate in this series. The Under is 5-1-1 in Los Angeles’ last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Clippers have also seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. Los Angeles stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and the Under is 7-2-2 in their last 9 playoff games when favored. Dallas made 20 of their 39 shots from behind the arc in the losing effort on Friday. They are making 50.5% of their shots from distance in this series which is simply unsustainable — especially if they continue to launch 36.3 shots from 3-point land per game as they have in the first three games in this series. The Mavericks made only 36.2% of their 3-pointers in the regular season — and the Clippers were sixth-best in the NBA by holding their opponents to 35.5% shooting from behind the arc. Luka Doncic is dealing with a neck issue as well — so while he will likely play, his super-human shooting skills may not be as spectacular in this Game Four. The Dallas is defense ranked only 21st for the season in Defensive Efficiency — but they improved to 13th over the last 15 games of the regular season. Head coach Rick Carlisle can get his group to play better on that end of the court. The Mavericks have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on their home court. They have also played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Mavericks have played 12 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on their home court. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (53) and the Colorado Avalanche (54) in Game One of their West Division Finals series. THE SITUATION: Vegas (44-16-3) advanced to this series with their 4-3 victory against Minnesota in Game Seven of their opening-round series on Friday. Colorado (43-13-4) has won nine games in a row after completing their four-game sweep of the Blues in St. Louis last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I awaited confirmation that Robin Lehner was the goaltender tonight for the Golden Knights — and he will be. I like the move by head coach Peter DeBoer since Marc-Andre Fleury was tiring with the every-other-day grind of the first round of the playoffs. Lehner will be fresh and with a chip on his shoulder to demonstrate he deserves consideration to be the starting playoff goaltender as he was last postseason. Lehner had a 1.99 Goals-Against-Average in 16 playoff starts last fall with a .917 save percentage and four shutouts. Lehner posted a 2.29 GAA with a .913 save percentage in 19 regular-season starts this year — and he was a bit more effective on the road with a 2.26 GAA and a .915 save percentage in eight starts. Vegas is already conditioned to grind out low-scoring games after surviving the defensively-minded Wild. They have played 4 straight Unders after scoring at least five goals in their last game. The Golden Knights have also played 22 of their last 32 games on the road Under the Total after a game where at least seven combined goals were scored. And in their last 5 road games as an underdog, Vegas has played 4 of these games Under the Total. I expect Colorado to be rusty with a week off after quickly disposing of the Blues last week. It is telling that the Under is 5-0-1 in the Avalanche’s last 6 games when playing with at least three days between games. They closed out that series with St. Louis with 5-1 and 5-2 victories. Colorado has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 22 of their last 32 road games Under the Total after winning their last two games on the road by more than one goal. It may be Nathan MacKinnon who garners most of the attention for the Avalanche — but they play outstanding defense as they ranked third in the league by allowing only 2.36 Goals-Per-Game. They also ranked third in the regular by allowing only 1.98 Goals-Per-Game at even strength — and they led the NHL with just a 1.73 expected goals allowed per game mark at even strength. They held the Blues to only seven goals in their four-game series. Goalie Philipp Grubauer made his claim of being one of the best in the league with a 1.95 Goals-Against-Average and a .922 save percentage. And don’t underestimate the loss of second-line center Nazeem Kadri who is appealing the eight-game suspension he incurred in that opening-round series. Kadri had 11 goals and 21 assists in the regular season.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. They last played on May 10th in a game to determine the top seed in the West Division and the eventual President’s Trophy for the best regular-season record. Colorado won in Las Vegas by a 2-1 score — and the Golden Knights have played 22 of their last 33 road games Under the Total when avenging a loss. 25* NHL NBC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (53) and the Colorado Avalanche (54). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (43-32) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Friday with their 105-94 victory against the Knicks as a 4.5-point favorite. New York   (42-33) trails in the series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knicks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. New York has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Julius Randle is struggling to score in this series. After carrying the Knicks on offense all season, he may be tired. After scoring only 14 points on 2 of 15 shooting on Friday, he is shooting only 30% from the field this season. Atlanta getting DeAndre Hunter back for the postseason after he was injured for most of the season has also played a big role as Hunter is an outstanding defender. The Hawks improved by 7.4 points per 100 possessions on defense with Hunter on the court during the regular season. New York is making only 39.9% from the field in this series. Head coach Tom Thibodeau finally made the inevitable move to put Derrick Rose in the starting lineup for Elfrid Payton who has been a +/- nightmare. Thibs also inserted Taj Gibson in for Nerlens Noel in the starting five. The downside of these moves is that the scoring punch from the Knicks’ second unit is now gone. The formula for New York to win this game is from defense — the DNA of Thibodeau’s coaching. They allowed Atlanta to make 51.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Knicks will play better on defense -- but, unfortunately for them, their 36.2% shooting percentage in Game Three is probably close to who they are in the intensity of the playoffs. They just do not have enough reliable scoring options. Yet, they can return to playing like the team that ranked fourth in the regular season by holding their opponents to scoring only 107.8 points per 100 possessions. They stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. New York has also played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. And in their last 17 games with the Total set at 200 or higher, the Knicks have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Atlanta’s 51.9% shooting on Friday was fueled by them margin 16 of their 27 shots from behind the arc. They are not likely to make 59% of their 3-pointers again tonight. The Hawks have played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total on their home court after a win. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Hawks’ defense has improved since Nate McMillan took over in March. They have held their opponents to just 35.2% shooting from behind the arc under McMillan. They stay at home where they have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 17 of their last 23 home games Under the Total when favored. They also have played 19 of their last 25 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Additionally, the Knicks have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 25* NBA 1st Round Sunday ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:38 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (41) and the Montreal Canadiens (42) in Game Six of their North Division Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Montreal (26-24-11) extended this series to a sixth game with their 4-3 win in overtime on Thursday. Toronto (38-16-7) can still advance to the North Division Finals tonight given their 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Canadiens should be energized with their victory. Not only does winning this game force a climactic seventh game, but the pressure would be enormous on this Maple Leafs team. Montreal has played 7 straight home games Under the Total after a win in overtime. They also have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a win by just one goal against a divisional rival. The Canadiens did make things interesting after racing out to a 3-0 lead in the second period. The Maple Leafs forced overtime because of two goals scored in the third period — but Montreal has then played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total after allowing at least two goals in the third period in their last game. Goalie Carey Price has had moments of his old brilliance in this series. I suspect he will play well tonight. The Canadiens return home where the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games — and the Under is 7-3-2 in their last 12 games at home as an underdog. Toronto came out flat on Thursday, apparently comfortable with their handle on the series. They will tighten up on defense tonight. I also suspect they will be very tight now that they have kept the door open for the Canadiens. The Maple Leafs have lost five straight close-out games in a playoff series going back to 2018 — they do not want to go back home for a Game Seven  (the pressure may work against them). This is a nervy game. Toronto has scored seven goals in their last two games — but they have then played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total after scoring at least three goals in their last two contests. The Maple Leafs go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Goalie Jack Campbell may have played his worst game in this series by allowing those early soft goals. He should play better tonight. Toronto has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least four goals. 25* NHL 1st Round Saturday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Maple Leafs (41) and the Montreal Canadiens (42). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (563) and the Boston Celtics (564) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (50-24) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 130-108 victory at home against Boston as an 8.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (37-38) has lost seven of their last nine games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Big Three of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving have been the offensive juggernaut many observers expected when they joined together this season. The Nets are scoring at an incredible 140 points per 100 possession rate so far in this series against an overmatched Celtics’ defense. They made 52.3% of their shots on Tuesday while nailing 17 of their 38 shots (45%) from behind the arc. And while the Brooklyn defense has held Boston to just 106.5 points per 100 possessions, I expect their defensive efforts to wane a bit as they did in the regular season now that this series seems to be well in hand. The Nets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win against an Atlantic Division rival. Brooklyn raced out to a 71-47 halftime lead in the game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. The Nets have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning two in a row against divisional rivals. Brooklyn goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. They have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Boston should show fight in this game — and that likely means a better effort on offense after making only 42.4% of their shots on Tuesday. Returning home should help where they are making 47.2% of their shots. I am skeptical that the Celtics can do much to stop this Nets’ offense — they really missed Jaylen Brown who was one of the team’s best on-the-ball defenders. Boston ranked a middling 13th in the league in Defensive Rating during the regular season but they fall to 23rd in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games without Brown. The Celtics have played 36 of their last 52 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 11 of their last 13 home games Over the Total after a loss on the road by double-digits. They also have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a loss to a division opponent. This team under head coach Brad Stevens rarely tightens things up on defense after a bad effort. The Over is 20-8-1 in Boston’s last 29 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Now they return home where they have played 6 straight Overs — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Kemba Walker is questionable with a knee bone bruise. The Boston offensive attack should still be fine with Payton Pritchard playing more minutes — he averages 13.5 PPG per a 24.6 minutes rate.

FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog under Stevens. 25* NBA 1st Round ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (563) and the Boston Celtics (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (555) and the Portland Trail Blazers (556) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (48-26) evened this series at 1-1 with their 128-109 victory as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Portland (43-31) has still won seven of their last nine games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Trail Blazers do not have an answer on defense to Nikola Jokic — and the Nuggets were committed to exploiting this vulnerability on Monday. Jokic scored 38 points while making 15 of his 20 shots inside the arc. Head coach Michael Malone made an interesting adjustment for Game Two by having his two guards stand in the corner to create a de-facto three-on-three game which opened up space for Jokic to operate in the paint. This spacing also helped Denver convert 12 of their 28 shots from behind the arc (42.9%). The Trail Blazers are at a significant size disadvantage in this series. Michael Porter is only making 25% of his 3-pointers in this series after leading the team with a 44.5% shooting mark from behind the arc during the regular season — so the scoring ceiling is higher for this team. The extra day of rest will help the Nuggets’ scoring attack — they have played 4 straight Overs when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, Denver has played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog. And in their last 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Portland has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. The Blazers are making 47.6% of their shots in this series along with 36.5% of their 3-pointers — and they can do more. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum have combined to score 63 and 55 points in this series. The Nuggets are missing Jamal Murray who provided the team’s best on-the-ball defender against opposing guards — and Will Barton is still out tonight with his injury which leaves them very thin when it comes to backcourt defensive options. Portland returns home where they have played 20 of their last 29 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Blazers have also played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total — and Portland has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when hosting the Nuggets. Denver can’t cover the Blazers’ backcourt — and Portland can’t cover the Nuggets’ frontcourt. This Game Three should be a wild one. 25* NBA Northwest Division Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (555) and the Portland Trail Blazers (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (551) and the Miami Heat (552) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (48-26) has won five of their last six games after their 132-98 victory in Game Two of this series on Monday. Miami (40-34) trails in this series by a 2-0 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. Milwaukee is owning the glass in this series. After out-rebounding the Heat in Game One by +13 boards, they won the rebounding battle by a 61 to 36 margin on Monday. The Bucks have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after out-rebounding their last opponent by at least 15 boards — and they have played 40 of their last 60 games Over the Total after out-rebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 boards. Milwaukee will have fresh legs with the extra day off — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when favored. Furthermore, the Bucks have played 8 of their last 9 playoff games Over the Total when leading in the series — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored. Miami has played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total when rebounding from a double-digit loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. Additionally, the Heat have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Head coach Erik Spoelstra will not be deterred from embracing a fast pace — his belief is that up-tempo plays into his team’s strength given the depth of his roster. Miami should shoot better than 8 of 29 (29%) from downtown as they did in Game Two. Now after playing their four games on the road, they return home for the first time since May 13th — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total after playing at least the last seven games on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when hosting a team with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has lost three straight games to the Bucks this season — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total when motivated by triple revenge. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (551) and the Miami Heat (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (21) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (22) in Game Five of their North Division Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Montreal (25-24-11) looks to stave off elimination after losing Game Four of this series on Tuesday by a 4-0 score. Toronto (38-16-6) has won the last three games in a row in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Canadiens’ lack of star power is rearing its head in this series. They have only scored four goals in this series — and they have scored just twice in the last 187:16 minutes of this series. A line with castoffs like Tomas Tatar — a left wing that should both Detroit and then Vegas was comfortable in letting go — on the top line (and being a primary scorer) demonstrates what little scoring talent this team has. Tatar would be a fine left wing on the third line of a playoff team. Playing on the road compounds the problem for Montreal since Toronto head coach Sheldon Keefe can target his best defensive pair against the Canadiens’ best scoring threat line. Younger stars like second-line center Nick Suzuki or Jesperi Kotkaniemi or 5’7 rookie Cole Caufield lack experience to play dominant roles without plenty of help that this team simply does not have — and they sure do miss second line left winger Jonathan Drouin who opted-out of the postseason with a medical issue. Montreal has played 15 of their last 22 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The Canadiens have not scored on their 13 Power Plays in this series. Moving forward, Montreal has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing their third game in four days. Additionally, the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a loss by at least three goals — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a loss by three or more goals at home. The Canadiens perhaps played too loose in Game Four to create more scoring chances — but that style also allowed the Maple Leafs to generate 10 high-danger scoring chances on Tuesday after both teams were only averaging 10.6 combined high-danger scoring chances per game in the first four games of this series. Montreal needs to go back to simply trying to grind out low-scoring games relying on Carey Price. The goalie has been solid with a 2.58 Goals-Against-Average and a .920 save percentage in this series. The Under is 7-1-2 in Toronto’s last 10 games after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by three or more goals. The Maple Leafs have also played 15 of their last 20 home games Under the Total after a win by four or more goals on the road. Toronto is getting it done without much production their superstars — Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have combined for only one point. Goalie Jack Campbell has been great with a 1.01 Goals-Against-Average and a .965 save percentage. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Furthermore, the Maple Leafs have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto will likely be quite content playing a conservative, defensive-first approach since it is getting them more comfortable for a style that has stymied them in the past when playing Atlantic Division rival Boston. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NHL 1st Round North Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (21) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (22). Best of luck for us — Frank.