All Sports Archive |
Date |
Match Up |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Lead Time |
Analysis |
10-17-19 |
UCLA v. Stanford UNDER 51 |
|
34-16 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (301) and the Stanford Cardinal (302). THE SITUATION: UCLA (1-5) has lost two straight games after their 48-31 upset loss to Oregon State as a 4.5-point favorite back on October 5th. Stanford (3-3) has won their last two games with their 23-13 upset win over Washington as a 13.5-point underdog on October 5th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinal has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win over a Pac-12 rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset victory as a home dog getting at least 7 points. Stanford’s win over the Huskies came on the heels of them defeating Oregon State on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after defeating two straight conference rivals. But the bad news for head coach David Shaw is that sophomore quarterback, Davis Mills, will not be able to play tonight given the calf injury he suffered in that game. With junior QB Kevin Costello already out with a thumb injury, that leaves the Cardinal offense in the hands of third-stringer Jack West. The redshirt freshman was highly recruited but not quite as high as Mills while lacking his experience at this point in his young career. As it is, Stanford is scoring only 15.3 PPG at home this season behind an offensive line that has struggled this season with just one returning starter. But the Cardinal are holding their guests to only 13.7 PPG along with just 274.7 total YPG. Stanford has played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total. The Cardinal defense has not forced more than one turnover since their opening game of the season against Northwestern — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not forcing more than one turnover in four straight games. Additionally, Stanford has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after their bye week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of October. UCLA is dealing with a host of injuries themselves. Dorian Thompson-Robinson remains questionable with a knee injury that kept him out last week against the Beavers. Sophomore quarterback Austin Burton was capable against Oregon State in Thompson-Robinson’s absence as he completed 27 of 41 passes for 236 yards with a touchdown while adding another 64 yards on the ground. But Burton is not a very high recruit and the Stanford defensive brain trust has had two weeks to prepare his tape for this game. UCLA has attempted 83 passes in their last two games — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. The Bruins did dominate the Time of Possession against the Beavers by holding the ball for 35:20 minutes while compiling 27 first downs — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after holding the ball for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 24 first downs. Moving forward, UCLA has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Bruins have averaged 531.3 total YPG over their last three games while allowing 539.7 total YPG in those contests — but UCLA has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after averaging at least 525 YPG in their last three games and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 475 YPG in their last three games. 10* CFB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (301) and the Stanford Cardinal (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-19 |
Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 49 |
Top |
30-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (303) and the Denver Broncos (304). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 31-24 upset loss at home to Houston on Sunday. Denver (2-4) has won their last two games with their 16-0 shutout win over Tennessee as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos stymied the Titans by limiting them to just 204 yards of offense. Despite losing Bradley Chubb to a season-ending injury, Denver still has a loaded defense that should continue to improve under first-year head coach Vic Fangio who is one of the brightest defensive minds in the league. The Broncos are 4th in the NFL by allowing only 307.8 total YPG. Denver is also 7th in the NFL by giving up just 17.7 PPG — and that number drops to 14.0 PPG when playing at home. The Under is 10-1-1 in the Broncos last 12 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Under is 5-0-1 in Denver’s last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Broncos stay at home where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. But this Denver offense is scoring just 17.7 PPG which is 26th in the NFL. They will likely look to run the football to burn time off the clock to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field — the Chiefs have allowed their last two opponents to keep their offense off the field for at least 37 minutes. Additionally, the Under is 7-0-1 in the Broncos’ last 8 games against teams from the AFC West. Kansas City has seen their offense slowed down over the last two weeks where they have gained only 324 and 309 yards. Not being on the field has played a large role — but so too has been the ankle injury to Mahomes which has slowed down his mobility. Furthermore, defenses have taken a page from the Matt Patricia defensive playbook where the Lions found success in playing press man-to-man coverage against the Chiefs wide receivers which has increased the demand on Mahomes to deliver with pinpoint accuracy which is not his strongest suit. The injuries on offense is certainly not helping the Andy Reid offense operate at its highest efficiency. Kansas City is missing two offensive linemen in All-Pro left tackle Jeff Fisher and right tackle Andrew Wylie. And while wide receiver Tyreek Hill returned to the field last week, Mahomes will be without wide receiver Sammie Watkins who is still dealing with a hamstring. The Chiefs have suffered two straight upset losses at home after their 19-13 loss at home to Indianapolis as a double-digit favorite. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after suffering two straight upset losses.
FINAL TAKE: The Kansas City defense is also banged up which has played a role in them surrendering 416.7 total YPG over their last three games. Opponents have amassed at least 180 rushing yards against the Chiefs in four straight games — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in three straight contests. Kansas City has also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (303) and the Denver Broncos (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-19 |
UL-Lafayette v. Arkansas State UNDER 68.5 |
Top |
37-20 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (305) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (306). THE SITUATION: Louisiana (4-2) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday with their 17-7 loss at home to Appalachian State as a 1.5-point favorite. Arkansas State (3-3) had their two-game winning streak end back on October 5th with their 52-38 upset loss at Georgia State as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Red Wolves have played 10 of their last fourteen games Under the Total after a loss. This has lost their starting quarterback for the season after Logan Bonner’s thumb injury at the end of September. Redshirt freshman quarterback Layne Hatcher has been solid — he completed 21 of 32 passes against the Panthers for 299 yards with four touchdown passes but he also tossed two interceptions in that upset loss. But Arkansas State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Red Wolves surrendered a whopping 722 yards in that game to Georgia State with sixth-year head coach Blake Anderson likely learning that he cannot have his team get in a shootout with Hatcher under center. Arkansas State has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Red Wolves defense has been a mess this season as they are giving up 535.8 total YPG. But injuries have played a factor — and this team will receive a boost tonight with the return of senior defensive tackle Kevin Thurmon who has missed the last two games with a hand injury. Moving forward, Arkansas State has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against Sun Belt Conference opponents — and the Under is also 43-18-2 in their last 63 games against teams with a winning record. Louisiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow Sun Belt foes. They managed only 254 yards of offense last week against the Mountaineers. Junior quarterback Levi Lewis completed 13 of 24 passes but for only 131 yards. The Ragin’ Cajuns are likely to rely on their ground game which ranks 6th in the nation by averaging 282.2 rushing YPG. Louisiana is 14th in the nation by averaging 492.2 total YPG — but those numbers drop by almost 40 yards per game when they are playing away from home. The biggest improvement with this team is on defense where they returned seven starters from last year’s team that allowed 34.2 PPG (105th in the nation) along with 435.59 total YPG (97th in the FBS). This season, the Ragin’ Cajuns are 43rd in the nation by allowing just 344.8 total YPG — and they rank 32nd in the FBS by giving up just 20.7 PPG. Furthermore, the Under is 7-3-1 in Louisiana’s last 11 games in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: Arkansas State will be looking to avenge a 47-43 upset loss at Louisiana last year that ultimately cost them the opportunity to play in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. To get revenge tonight, head coach Anderson will likely conclude that he needs to slow this game down to protect his defense. The Ragin’ Cajuns will also be looking to run the ball — expect a lower scoring game with the Total set in the high 60s. 25* CFB Thursday ESPNU Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (305) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-19 |
Stars v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (33) and the Columbus Blue Jackets (34). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-5-1) has lost three straight games with their 4-0 loss at Buffalo on Monday. Columbus (2-3-0) has won two of their last three contests with their 3-2 win at Carolina on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 4-1-1 in the Stars’ last 6 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after failing to score more than a goal in their last game. Additionally, Dallas has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals. This team is scoring only 1.9 Goals-Per-Game this season after reaching the Western Conference Semifinals last year. The Stars stay on the road where the Under is 31-13-8 in their last 52 games — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Furthermore, Dallas has played 23 of their last 27 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5. Columbus has played 19 of 24 games Under the Total at home after a win on the road — and the Under is a decisive 32-15-4 in their last 51 games after a victory. Additionally, the Blue Jackets have played 18 of their last 26 road games Under the Total after a narrow win by just one goal — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Now Columbus returns home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Blue Jackets are scoring just 2.2 Goals-Per-Game this season with that number dropping to just 2.0 Goals-Per-Game when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: Columbus has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Expect a lower scoring game between these two teams that are struggling to score goals. 10* NHL Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (33) and the Columbus Blue Jackets (34). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-15-19 |
Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 7.5 |
Top |
4-7 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (913) and the Washington Nationals (914) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Patrick Corbin. THE SITUATION: Washington (100-71) took a 3-0 lead in the National League Championship Series last night with their 8-1 victory over the Cardinals. St. Louis (94-76) has lost five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-2-1 in the Nationals’ last 8 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have played a decisive 31 of their last 48 home games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Over is 6-1-1 in Washington’s last 8 games against an opponent that did not score more than two runs in their last game — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games against an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. The Nationals’ bullpen did not allow an earned run last night but they have then played 16 of their last 23 home games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow a run in their last game. But this Washington bullpen has a 5.72 ERA along with a 1.55 WHIP at home this season along with a 7.07 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP this postseason. The Over is also 5-2-1 in the Nationals’ last 8 games at home. They give the ball to Corbin who was 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The left-hander has struggled in this postseason with a 7.56 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in 8 1/3 innings which has included a couple of bullpen appearances. Corbin also sees his WHIP rise to a 1.24 mark in night games as compare to his 1.05 WHIP in nine day starts. Washington has played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with Corbin pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a Cardinals team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers. St. Louis has seen the Over go 43-20-4 in their last 67 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Cardinals have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss. And while St. Louis has scored only two runs in this series, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to score more than one run in two straight games. Furthermore, the Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 road games in the playoffs. They counter with Hudson who is 16-7 with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in thirty-three regular-season appearances. Hudson struggled in his last start back on March 7th in the Game Four of the NLDS where he allowed four runs (one earned) in 4 2/3 innings of work at home while allowing five hits and two walks. The right-hander now goes on the road where he has been less effective with a 4.13 ERA with a 1.61 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .271 in sixteen games (fifteen starts). St. Louis has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Hudson facing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Nationals score 5.6 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have scored 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. With the Cardinals desperate to stave off elimination, expect a big scoring game. 25* MLB National League Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (913) and the Washington Nationals (914) listing both starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Patrick Corbin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-15-19 |
Lightning v. Canadiens OVER 6.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-118 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (17) and the Montreal Canadiens (18). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (2-2-1) has lost three of their last four games with their 4-2 loss at Ottawa on Saturday. Montreal (2-1-1) come off a 6-3 victory over St. Louis on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lightning have started slow this defense their play on the defensive end of the ice being a disappointment. Tampa Bay is allowing 3.4 Goals-Per-Game. Goalie Andre Vasilevskiy has struggled with a 3.04 Goals-Against-Average along with a .903 save percentage — and the reigning Vezina Trophy winner sees his save percentage drop to a .875 mark in his first two games on the road. The Lightning have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Over the Total when a road favorite. This is Tampa Bay’s fifth straight game away from home — and they have played 13 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing their last four games on the road. The Lightning are scoring a healthy 4.0 Goals-Per-Game this season. They also have played 6 straight games Over the Total when priced as a favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. Montreal has seen the Over go 14-5-2 in their last 21 games against an opponent that did not score more than two goals in their last game. It has also been a slow start for goalie Carey Price who has a 3.38 GAA along with a .901 save percentage so far this season. The Canadiens are allowing a rough 4.28 Goals-Per-Game this season — but they are also scoring 4.28 Goals-Per-Game thus year. Montreal has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games when playing with two days of rest. Furthermore, the Over is 3-0-1 in the Canadiens’ last 4 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Montreal has played 4 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. 25* NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (17) and the Montreal Canadiens (18). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-19 |
Lions v. Packers UNDER 47 |
Top |
22-23 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (275) and the Green Bay Packers (276). THE SITUATION: Detroit (2-1-1) takes the field again after their 34-30 loss at home to Kansas City as a 7.5-point underdog two weeks ago back on September 29th. Green Bay (4-1) comes off a 34-24 upset win in Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They also have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points — and they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total on the road after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And while Detroit allowed the Chiefs to generate 438 yards of offense, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. One of the touchdowns that Kansas City scored was on a 100-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The eye test suggests that the Lions played pretty good defense to slow down Patrick Mahomes. Head coach Matt Patricia has proven himself one of the best schematic defensive coaches in the league — and it is telling that the Chiefs have scored only 37 combined points in their last two games since that game with Detroit. Bill Belichick also used some of the Patricia blueprints in the Lions’ defensive game plan against the Rams in last year’s Super Bowl. Patricia has had two weeks to prepare his defense for the Packers’ offense — and Detroit has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. Patricia has also finally gotten the Lions offense to emphasize the run to make things easier on quarterback Matthew Stafford. Detroit held the ball for 33:55 minutes against the Chiefs and controlling the time of possession to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field will be the formula tonight. The Lions gained 447 yards against Kansas City — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 6games Under the Total after playing on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Packers offense will be limited with wide receiver Davante Adams still out with his turf toe which takes away Rodgers’ most reliable passing target. Look for the Packers to also emphasize the run to take the pressure off Rodgers and their defense that surrendered 563 total yards to the Cowboys. Dallas passed for 441 passing yards in that game — but Green Bay has played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Packers have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 500 or more yards in their last game. There is no question this Green Bay defense has improved with the additions of the Smith brothers in Za’Darius and Preston who were signed as free agents in the offseason. The Packers are 8th in the NFL this season by allowing only 18.6 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and Detroit has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against NFC North foes. Expect a lower scoring game between these two teams that have re-defined their identities to be run-oriented defensive teams. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (275) and the Green Bay Packers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-19 |
Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 6.5 |
Top |
1-8 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:38 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (909) and the Washington Nationals (910) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Stephen Strasburg. THE SITUATION: Washington (99-71) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Saturday with their 3-1 win over the Cardinals. St. Louis (94-75) has lost four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals lost the opening game of this series by a 2-0 score. And while they have managed just four hits so far in this series, St. Louis has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where three or fewer runs were scored by both teams. The Cardinals have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss. And while they stranded only three runners on Saturday, they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after stranding three runners or less in their last game. Now the Cardinals go back on the road — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games Over the Total after playing their last two games at home. The Over is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games in the playoffs. They give the ball to Flaherty who is 11-8 with a 2.75 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in thirty-three regular-season starts. But while the right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 3.13 mark in seventeen starts on the road along with a 1.15 WHIP. St. Louis has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Flaherty pitching with the Total no higher than 7.5. Flaherty also sees his ERA rise to a 3.50 mark when pitching at night this year. He faces a Nationals team that has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington scores 5.6 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .273 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .830. The Nationals have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have also played a decisive 53 of their last 80 home games Over the Total in night games. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against an opponent who did not score more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Strasburg who was 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 3.67 mark when pitching at night. The Over is also a decisive 41-16-3 in the Nationals’ last 60 home games with Strasburg on the mound — and the Over is 21-7-1 in their last 28 home games with Strasburg faces a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: I was surprised (and overjoyed) to see the Total drop to 6.5s in many spots for this game. The Cardinals have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the Total set at 7 or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Over the Total with the number set at 7 or lower. The Nationals have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set at 7 or lower. 25* MLB Monday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (909) and the Washington Nationals (910) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Stephen Strasburg. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-19 |
Steelers v. Chargers UNDER 42.5 |
|
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) and the Los Angeles Chargers (274). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-4) looks to rebound from their 26-23 loss in overtime last week at home against Baltimore as a 7.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (2-3) looks to bounce-back from a 20-13 upset loss at home to Denver as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Pittsburgh will be down to their fourth-string quarterback from training camp in rookie Devlin Hodges who will be playing for Mason Rudolph who has not cleared the concussion protocol. The Steelers also lost one of their important offensive weapons in Jaylen Samuels who is out indefinitely after suffering a knee injury last week. Pittsburgh managed only 77 rushing yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Now the Steelers go back on the road where they have played 37 of their last 52 games Under the Total — and they have also played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Pittsburgh defense is playing better after a slow start. They have held their last three opponents to just 298.0 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Chargers managed only 246 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Now Los Angeles stays at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers defense has also played better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 319.7 total YPG. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) and the Los Angeles Chargers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-19 |
Wyoming v. San Diego State UNDER 38.5 |
Top |
22-26 |
Loss |
-103 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (205) and the San Diego State Aztecs (206). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (4-1) takes the field again after their 53-17 win over UNLV two weeks ago as an 8-point favorite. San Diego State (4-1) looks to build off their 24-10 win at Colorado State as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Wyoming generated 498 yards of offense against the Rebels, the Under is then 22-7-1 in their last 30 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. The Cowboys want to run the ball as they are 2nd in the MWC by averaging 248.2 rushing YPG — but they will be running into a buzzsaw with this Aztecs defense. San Diego State leads the nation by allowing only 45.4 rushing YPG — and they are second in the FBS by limiting rushers to just 1.79 Yards-Per-Carry. The Aztecs have not allowed a team to rush for more than 82 yards this season. Wyoming goes back on the road where the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games. The Under is also 11-2-1 in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Cowboys have played 11 of their last 15 games against MWC opponents — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of October. San Diego State has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Aztecs held the Rams to just 235 yards of offense in that win — and not only have they then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game but they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. But San Diego State managed only 238 yards last week — and the Under is also 12-3-1 in their last 16 games after a game where they did not gain more than 275 yards. Injuries have slowed down the Aztecs ground game — they are only averaging 2.98 YPC which is 123rd in the nation while generating just 134 rushing YPG. This has placed more of the weight of the offense on the arm of senior quarterback Ryan Agnew who is solid but certainly not a spectacular gunslinger. San Diego State averages only 187 passing YPG — and head coach Rocky Long will not have his team deviate much from his run-oriented game plan. The Aztecs are scorn only 20.2 PPG this season — and that number drops to 11.5 PPG at home. But San Diego State is allowing just 11.4 PPG along with a mere 270.8 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 26-10-1 in the Aztecs’ last 37 games at home — and they have played 43 of their last 62 games Under the Total in the month of October. The number has dropped into the high 30s for this game — but with the loser likely eliminated from the MWC title race, expect a defensive slugfest with points hard to come by. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (205) and the San Diego State Aztecs (206). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-19 |
Colorado v. Oregon UNDER 60.5 |
Top |
3-45 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Buffaloes (113) and the Oregon Ducks (114). THE SITUATION: Colorado (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 35-30 upset loss at home to Arizona last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Oregon (4-1) has won four straight games after their 17-7 win over Cal last Saturday as a 21.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a bit of a contrarian play with the Total opening at 58 and now being bet up to the 60s in many spots. The Buffaloes have played in two straight high scoring affairs with their win last week preceded by a 34-30 win at Arizona State. Colorado’s defense has looked shaky by allowing 487 yards to the Wildcats after surrendering 453 yards to the Wildcats. The Buffaloes have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 475 yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after giving up at least 450 yards in two straight games. Additionally, Colorado has played 4 straight games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored — and they have placed 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. This is just the second true road game of the season for the Buffaloes who have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on field turf. On offense, senior quarterback Steven Montez led the team to 337 passing yards for the second straight week — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for at least 325 passing yards in their last game. Colorado has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total playing on a Friday night. Oregon has seen the Under go 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after a straight-up win. Senior quarterback Justin Herbert gets most of the attention with this Ducks team — but he has led this team to just 38 combined points over their last two games against Cal and Stanford. Oregon scored 77 points against a Nevada defense that Hawai’i also ripped to shreds while also scoring only 35 points against an FCS team in Montana. But when also considering their 27-21 loss to Auburn to begin the season, the Ducks are scoring less than 20 PPG against Power-Five conference opponents. It may very well be that the concern that Herbert lacked proven dynamic weapons at running back and wide receiver may have turned out to be the case. But second-year head coach Mario Cristobal has assembled a talented defense that is thriving under first-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos. The former Boise State coordinator is leading a group that is allowing just 9.8 PPG along with only 261.4 total YPG. The Ducks have talent at all three levels of the defense — and they held the Golden Bears to just 256 total yards of offense last week. Oregon has then played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 total yards in their last game — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Ducks have not allowed more than 7 points in each of their last four games after that first game against the Tigers — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in two straight games. Oregon stays at home where they have played 4 straight games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Buffaloes will want to avoid a shootout on the road at Autzen Stadium against this Ducks team — and Cristobal seems to be mimicking the identity of Nick Saban where he used to war as an assistant. Expect a lower scoring game led by the still underrated Oregon defense. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Buffaloes (113) and the Oregon Ducks (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-19 |
Giants v. Patriots UNDER 43 |
Top |
14-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (103) and the New England Patriots (104). THE SITUATION: New York (2-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 28-10 loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog. New England (5-0) returns home after playing their last two games on the road after their 33-7 win at Washington as a 15.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots had plead 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least five games in a row. Additionally, New England has played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. The Patriots have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. New England have one of their best defenses in the Bill Belichick era as they are allowing a mere 6.8 PPG while holding their opponents to just 238.4 total YPG. The Patriots will be leaning on their defense for this game given the injuries this team is experiencing on offense. Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett is out with a hamstring injury while wide receivers Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman are both listed as questionable with a knee and chest injury. The targets for Tom Brady in the passing game were already a big question mark for this team as they transition away from the Rob Gronkowski era. The lack of an elite weapon in the passing game is why the team took a chance on Antonio Brown before he proved to be too much trouble for what he offered. It was the Brown signing that compelled the Patriots to trade away wide receiver Demaryius Thomas early in the season when it looked like they had too many bodies at that position. Now this team could use a reliable healthy body at that position with their first-round draft choice, N’Keal Harry, on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. Brady was still able to complete 28 of 42 passes for 348 yards last week against the Skins en route to 442 total yards of offense — but New England has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game while also playing 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Patriots return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. New York managed only 211 total yards last week with just 147 net yards in the passing game. The Giants were already without star running back Sequon Barkley with his knee injury but the injuries began to mount in that game with the carry-over being significant for this game being played on a short week. Barkley’s backup, Wayne Gallman, is out tonight having not cleared the concussion protocol leaving the rushing duties to Jon Hillman who came off the practice squad a few weeks ago. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones is also without his top two receiving threats in wide receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram as they deal with a concussion and MCL injuries respectively. As it is, the Giants have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 passing yards. New York also allowed 211 rushing yards in that contest — and they have played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Giants have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: With the Giants riddled with injuries, expect a similar score as their 28-10 loss last week to the Vikings. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing the Patriots in Foxboro. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (103) and the New England Patriots (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-19 |
Syracuse v. NC State UNDER 57 |
Top |
10-16 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (107) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (108). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (3-2) takes the field again after their 41-3 win over Holy Cross back on September 28th as a 40-point favorite. NC State (3-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-13 loss at Florida State as a 7-point underdog on September 28th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orange have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Syracuse has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win by at least five touchdowns. The Orange’s victory over Holy Cross from the FCS came after a 52-33 win at home over Western Michigan — and they have then played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by at least 17 points. Syracuse has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Orange have struggled with their offensive line against bigger defensive lines from Power Five conferences. Syracuse only had two starters back from last year’s offensive line. The Orange are averaging just 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry this season while allowing 18 sacks already. The Wolfpack have two starters back from last year’s defensive line — but this unit has reloaded from year-to-year under head coach Dave Doeren as of late. Despite losing four players on their defensive line to the NFL last year, the NC State defense still produced a Havoc Rate of 10.8% which was a slight drop from their 11.3% Havoc Rate in 2017 with those four future NFLers. Now after playing their last two games at home, Syracuse goes back on the road where they are scoring only 22.0 PPG. The Under is 26-12-1 in the Orange’s last 39 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And int her last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points, Syracuse has played 5 of these games Under the Total. NC State has played 21 of their last 30 home games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a fellow ACC opponent. The Wolfpack have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Doeren will be sticking with sophomore quarterback Bailey Hockman who made his first career start in that game against the Seminoles. Hickman completed only 21 of 40 passes for 208 yards with a touchdown in that game taking over for redshirt sophomore Matthew McKay who started the first four games of the season. Finding the replacement for three-year starter, Ryan Finley, remains a work in progress for this team. NC State returns home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Wolfpack defense has played much better at home where they are allowing just 9.7 PPG and only 264 total YPG. Furthermore, NC State has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams from the ACC. And in their last 20 games played on a Thursday night, the Under is 18-1-1 for the Wolfpack.
FINAL TAKE: While I am not sure how effective this nascent NC State offense will be with just four starters back from last season and with Hockman making only his second career start, Doeren should have his defense ready to roll tonight. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (107) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-19 |
Rays v. Astros UNDER 7 |
|
1-6 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (951) and the Houston Astros (952) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Gerrit Cole. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (99-68) forced a decisive fifth-game in this series on Tuesday with their 4-1 victory over the Astros. This series returns to Houston (109-57) who gets to host the final game to determine who will play the Yankees in the ALCS.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rays have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where they did not allow more than two runs in their last game. Now Tampa Bay goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set at 7 or less. Furthermore, the Rays have played 7 of their last 10 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination — and they have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total with the opportunity to come out a series. They give the ball to Glasnow who is 6-1 with a 1.78 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in twelve regular-season starts. The right-hander was more effective on the road where he had a 0.55 ERA with a 0.67 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .142 in six starts. Glasnow also had a 1.56 ERA in seven starts at night during the regular season. He had great stuff in Game One of this series where he allowed two runs and two runs in 4 1/3 innings of work while striking out four batters. He is pitching with five days of rest — and the Under is 4-0-1 in the Rays’ last 5 games with Glasnow pitching with five days of rest. Tampa Bay has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Glasnow on the hill — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Glasnow looking to follow up a start where he did not allow more than two earned runs. He faces a slumping Astros lineup that is hitting just .241 in this series with a .294 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .685 which is far below their season .848 OPS. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss. And while the Astros have only scored four combined runs over their last two games, they have then played 29 of their last 45 games Under the Total after not scoring more than three runs in two straight games. Furthermore, Houston has played 43 of their last 64 home games Under the Total when priced as a big favorite in the -250 to -330 range. They give the ball to Cole who is 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in thirty-three regulars season starts. The right-hander has been pitching his best as of late — he is 5-0 over his last five regular-season starts with a 1.00 ERA along with 60 strikeouts and just 5 bases-on-balls over those 36 innings. Cole registered 326 punch-outs this season before striking out 15 Rays in 7 2/3 innings while not allowing an earned run on Saturday in the second game of this series. Cole is pitching with four days of rest which was not uncommon for him during the regular season — and the Astros have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Cole pitching on four days of rest. He faces a Rays team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .237 batting average along with a .303 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .734 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has lost the last two games in this series on the road despite being favored — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with double revenge. The Astros have also played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when looking to avenge two straight upset losses on the road as the favorite. 10* MLB Tampa Bay-Houston FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (951) and the Houston Astros (952) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Gerrit Cole. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-19 |
Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7 |
|
7-3 |
Loss |
-104 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (915) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (916) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Washington (96-71) forced a decisive fifth game of this series on Monday with their 6-1 victory over the Dodgers. This series moves back to Los Angeles (108-58) for the final game to determine who will advance to the National League Championship Series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 11-5-1 in the Nationals’ last 17 games after an off day — and they have played 24 of their last 35 home games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. Washington has played 25 of the last 36 road games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range — and the Under is 37-18-4 in their last 59 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Nationals have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total in the playoffs. They give the ball to Strasburg who is 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander was dominant on Saturday in the second game of this series where he allowed one earned run in 6 innings of work — and the Under is 5-0-1 in Washington’s last 6 games with Strasburg is following up a Quality Start. The Nationals have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road with Strasburg on the hill — and the Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games with Strasburg facing a team with a winning record. Additionally, Washington has played 4 straight road games Under the Total with Strasburg facing the Dodgers in Los Angeles. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Under is 19-8-1 in Los Angeles’ last 28 games after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Dodgers return home where the Under is 36-13-5 in their last 54 home games against teams with a winning record. The Under is also 12-2-2 in LA’s last 16 home games in the playoffs. They counter with Buehler who was 14-4 with a 3.26 era and a 1.04 whip in thirty regular-season starts. The right-hander was even better at home during the regular season where he enjoyed a 2.86 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in fourteen starts. The Under is 20-6-3 in the Dodgers’ last 29 home games with Beuhler on the hill — and the Under is also 13-1-2 in their last 16 home games with Buehler facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Nationals team that has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams — and the Under is 19-7-1 in the last 27 games between these two teams when playing in Los Angeles. 10* MLB Washington-LA Dodgers TBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (915) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (916) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-08-19 |
Bruins v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (15) and the Vegas Golden Knights (16). THE SITUATION: Boston (2-0-0) has won their first two games this season after their 1-0 win in Arizona against the Coyotes on Saturday. Vegas (2-0-0) comes off a 5-1 victory at San Jose on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bruins have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a victory. Boston has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals this season. The Bruins are already playing defense at a championship level after losing in the Stanley to St. Louis last June. Boston has allowed only one goal this season after opening the season with a 2-1 win at Dallas. The Bruins stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total. Boston has also played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. Additionally, the Bruins have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in two straight games. Vegas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win. The Golden Knights have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a win by at least three goals — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least three goals against a fellow Pacific Division rival. Vegas opened their season with a 4-1 win at home against the Sharks as they avenged their playoff series loss to that San Jose team. The Golden Knights have then played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after being unbeaten in their last two games. Vegas has also played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after scoring at least four goals in two straight games. The Golden Knight have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games when priced as the favorite in the -110 to -150 range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played four previous times in history in the first two years of the Vegas franchise — and those games all finished Under the Total with no more than five combined goals scored. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (15) and the Vegas Golden Knights (16). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-19 |
Yankees v. Twins OVER 9 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-111 |
3 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (907) and the Minnesota Twins (908) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Jake Odorizzi. THE SITUATION: New York (105-59) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Saturday with their 8-2 victory over the Twins. Minnesota (101-63) has lost three games in a row as they look to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have scored eighteen runs in this series with their 10-4 victory in the opening game of this series. New York has then played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total after scoring at least seven runs in two straight games. The Yankees have also had their bullpen pitch 4 innings in three straight games totaling 15 1/2 innings overall — and they have then played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 4 innings in three straight contests. Now New York goes back on the road where they have played 27 of their last 41 road games Over the Total as a money-line favorite priced at least at -125. The Yankees have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Over is 5-2-1 in New York’s last 8 games in the ALDS — and the Over is 21-5-1 in the Yankees’ last 27 games against teams from the AL Central. They give the ball to Severino who is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 12 innings of work this year after coming back from a right-shoulder and lat injury from last season. Looking at the right-hander's numbers from last season, Severino was not as effective on the road where he had a 3.99 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average .257 as compared to his 2.74 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .217 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. The Yankees have played 7 straight games Over the Total on the road with Severino on the mound — and they have also played 32 of their last 49 games Over the Total with Severino pitching at night. Furthermore, New York has played 5 straight games Over the Total with Severino pitching against a team with a winning record. Minnesota has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams that did not allow more than two runs in their last game. The Twins return home for the first time since September 22nd — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total after being on the road for at least seven days. The Over is also 7-1-2 in Minnesota’s last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They counter with Odorizzi who is 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in thirty starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244 in fifteen starts as compared to his 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 when on the road. Odorizzi also has a 4.01 ERA in night games with a 1.28 WHIP. The Twins have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Odorizzi facing a team from the AL East.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total — and the Over is 18-7-2 in the last 27 meetings between these two teams when playing in Minnesota. 25* MLB ALDS Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (907) and the Minnesota Twins (908) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Jake Odorizzi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-19 |
Browns v. 49ers UNDER 48 |
Top |
3-31 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (477) and the San Francisco 49ers (478). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-2) looks to build off their 40-25 victory in Baltimore against the Ravens last Sunday night. San Francisco (3-0) takes the field again after their 24-20 victory over Pittsburgh as a 6-point favorite back on September 22nd.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The offense under head coach Kyle Shanahan may get the headlines with the Niners 3-0 start — but it is the play of the defense that has led the way for this team. San Fransisco is third in the NFL by holding teams to just 283.3 total YPG — and they are allowing only 18.0 PPG. The 49ers defense has been helped by Shanahan calling running plays in 57% of their plays from scrimmage which burns clocks and keeps that defense fresh and off the field. San Francisco held the ball for 36:17 minutes against the Steelers which helped them limit the Pittsburgh offense to just 239 total yards of offense. The Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers have outgained their last two opponents by +197 and +256 net yards — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +150 net yards in two straight games. San Francisco went into halftime of that game trailing by a 6-3 score — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. Jimmy Garappolo did pass for 277 yards in that contest — but the Niners have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. San Francisco stays at home for this game where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Cleveland has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over an AFC North rival. The Browns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset victory as a road underdog. That game flew over the 47-point Total — and Cleveland has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Browns have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Cleveland committed to running the football to win on the road against the Ravens — they generated 193 rushing yards en route to their 528 total yards of offense. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Browns’ last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. Cleveland has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: The Browns are scoring just 22.2 PPG this season even after putting up 40 points last week. Expect a lower scoring game tonight with both teams deploying run-first offensive game plans. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (477) and the San Francisco 49ers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-19 |
Dodgers v. Nationals OVER 8 |
|
1-6 |
Loss |
-101 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Washington Nationals (904) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (108-57) took a 2-1 lead in this series last night with their 10-4 victory over the Nationals. Washington (95-71) looks to stave off elimination tonight having lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have now played 22 of their last 31 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Los Angeles has also played 19 of their last 27 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They give the ball to Hill who is 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in thirteen starts this season. The left-hander has been a bit better at home where he owns a 1.00 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in six starts as compared to his 1.28 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 8-2-2 in the Dodgers’ last 12 road games with Hill on the mound — and the Over is also 5-0-1 in Los Angeles’ last 6 road games with Hill facing a team with a winning record. Washington’s bullpen let them down yesterday as they allowed nine runs to the Dodgers — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed at least six runs. The Over is now 4-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 6 games at home — and they have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Washington has also played 15 of their last 23 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 8 to 8.5 range — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games in the NLDS. They counter with Scherzer who is 11-7 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in twenty-seven starts during the regular season. But the ace right-hander has not been the same since coming off the disabled list with a back injury. In his seven regular-season starts since his return, Scherzer had a 4.74 ERA over 38 innings of work. Scherzer also entered this series with a surprising 4.00 ERA in his 27 innings of work at home in playoff games with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .243 which are all numbers much higher than what he usually produces. Scherzer allowed three earned runs in 5 innings of work in the NL Wildcard game last Tuesday before striking out the side in the 8th inning in Game Two of this series on Friday. I don’t love the idea of Scherzer pitching on short rest from that appearance given his recent back troubles. The Nationals have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total with Scherzer pitching after a loss. Washington has also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with Scherzer on the mound pitching in the playoffs. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-2 in the Nationals’ last 6 games with Scherzer pitching against the Dodgers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total when playing in Washington. Expect another higher-scoring game. 10* MLB LA Dodgers-Washington FS1-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Washington Nationals (904) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-19 |
Colts v. Chiefs OVER 55.5 |
Top |
19-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (2-2) looks to rebound from their 31-24 upset loss at home to Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained undefeated last week with their 34-30 win at Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Patrick Mahomes had thrown at least two touchdown passes in fourteen straight games before getting shutout from touchdown passes last week against the Matt Patricia-coached Lions defense. Yet the Chiefs still put up 34 points while generating 438 yards of offense. Kansas City has then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Chiefs have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. This Kansas City team under head coach Andy Reid has scored at least 25 points in a remarkable twenty-five straight games. They return home for just the second time this season where they have averaged 32 PPG with Mahomes as their quarterback. The problem for this Chiefs team remains their defense. Kansas City is allowing 259 passing YPG this year. The Chiefs have been even worse with their run defense as opposing rushers are averaging 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry which is translating into 150 rushing YPG. Detroit outgained KC last week with 447 total yards of offense — and the Over is 4-1-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. And in their last 11 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Over is 7-3-1 for Kansas City. Indianapolis will be challenged to slow down Mahomes and the dynamic Chiefs’ passing attack with defensive backs Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers out with injuries. The Colts are allowing 25.5 PPG this season. But Jacoby Brissett has proven himself as a legitimate starting quarterback with over 900 passing yards in his first four starts with 10 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. It looks like Brissett will have the benefit of his wider receiver T.Y. Hilton on the field for this game with the reports indicating he will play despite his quad injury. Indianapolis has played 31 of their last 41 games Over the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. Additionally, the Colts have played 36 of their last 53 games in the month of October Over the Total — and this includes them playing six straight Overs on the road in October.
FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total when playing on a grass field (as opposed to the field turf at Lucas Oil Field). The Chiefs will be hard to stop on offense in this game — don’t be surprised if they approach the 40 point threshold against the banged-up Colts defense. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-19 |
Dodgers v. Nationals OVER 8.5 |
Top |
10-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (955) and the Washington Nationals (956) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Anibal Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Washington (95-70) evened this best-of-five series at 1 game apiece on Friday with their 4-2 victory over the Dodgers. The Nationals used Max Scherzer for an inning of relief in that game — so his planned start for Game Three will be pushed back until tomorrow with Sanchez taking the start instead. Los Angeles had won eight straight games before that loss.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 3-0-1 in the Nationals’ last 4 games against an opponent that did not score more than two runs in their last game. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Washington has also played 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs Over the Total with the series tied. Sanchez is 11-8 with a 3.85 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in thirty starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 4.24 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in fifteen starts. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-2-1 in Los Angeles’ last 8 games after an off day. Additionally, the Over is 21-9-1 in the Dodgers’ last 31 road games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 26 road games with the Total set at 8 to 8.5, Los Angeles has played 18 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Ryu who is 14-5 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in twenty-nine starts this year. But while the left-hander was nearly unhittable at home this year with a 1.93 ERA along with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .21 in fourteen starts, those numbers rose to a 2.72 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and a very pedestrian opponent’s batting average of .253 in his fifteen stars on the road. Ryu also sees his ERA rise to a 3.11 mark during night games with a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in twenty starts. Ryu does not have a glowing postseason history either givens 5.40 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 26 2/3 innings in the playoffs. The Dodgers have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with Ryu facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Nationals team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .273 batting average and an On-Base Percentage of .343 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total when playing in Washington. Expect a higher scoring game with at least one of these offenses breaking out for a big game. 25* MLB NLDS Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (955) and the Washington Nationals (956) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Anibal Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-19 |
Tulane v. Army UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
42-33 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (323) and the Army Black Knights (324). THE SITUATION: Tulane (3-1) returns to the field after their 38-31 victory as a 4-point favorite over Houston back on September 19th. Army (3-1) looks to build off their 52-21 win over Morgan State two Saturdays ago as a 45.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Green Wave raced out to a 28-14 halftime lead over the Cougars for that Thursday night game over two weeks ago — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Tulane has also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a victory over a fellow American Conference West opponent. The Green Wave rushed for 325 yards in that game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 300 yards. Tulane is 26th in the nation with their run-first offense by averaging 6.56 Yards-Per-Play. But they only scored 6 points in their lone road game this season at Auburn. But head coach Willie Fritz’s team is underrated on the defensive side of the football — they held the Tigers to only 24 points in their first road game of the year. Overall, they are holding their opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 340.2 total YPG. Tulane has eight starters back from last year’s team that played both Army and Navy — so this is a group experienced in dealing with the spread triple option. The Green Wave also returned all but one of their rotation players on their defensive line from last year’s group. Getting more than two weeks to prepare for this unique offense will certainly help. And Tulane has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 37 points in their last game. Now the Green Wave go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Tulane has placed 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. Army has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. The Black Knights have also played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Army generated 483 yards of offense in that game, they have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This team does look to get their starting quarterback, Kelvin Hopkins, back for this game after he missed the last two games with a leg injury since the Black Knights heartbreaking 24-21 overtime loss at Michigan. Army plays outstanding defense — they are limiting their opponents to only 16.2 PPG along with just 287.7 total YPG with those numbers dropping to just 14.0 PPG when playing at home along with only 275.5 total YPG that they allow. The Black Knights thrive with their run defense as well as they are limiting their opponents to allow only 104 rushing YPG along with just 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Army limited Michigan to just 108 rushing yards three weeks ago — and they have had two weeks to prepare for the Green Wave run-oriented spread offense. The Black Knights have played 22 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a bye week. Moving forward, Army has played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total as an underdog of 3 points or less.
FINAL TAKE: Tulane won last year’s meeting between these two teams by a 21-17 score in New Orleans. Expect another low scoring game. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (323) and the Army Black Knights (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-19 |
Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
|
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (917) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (918) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Washington (94-69) rallied from a 3-1 deficit with three runs in the 8th inning to defeat Milwaukee in the NL Wild Card Playoff game on Tuesday with their 4-3 victory. Los Angeles (106-56) has won seven games in a row with their 9-0 shutout win in San Francisco on Sunday. The Dodgers host the first two games of this best-of-five series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 10-4-1 in the Nationals’ last 15 games after an off day — and the Under is also 5-2-2 in their last 9 opening games to a new series. Now after playing their last nine games at home, Washington goes back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after playing their three previous games at home — and they have played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total after playing at least their last four games at home. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They give the ball to Corbin who is 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three starts this season. The left-hander has pitched very well in Dodger Stadium — in eleven career starts, he has a 2.97 ERA in this building. The Under is also 5-1-1 in Washington’s last 7 road games with Corbin facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Dodgers team that has not been as effective against left-handed pitching. LA averages just 4.7 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .242 batting average along with a .313 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .751 with all those numbers below their season averages overall. Los Angeles has only allowed two runs over their last four games with three shutouts (two straight) during that stretch. The Dodgers have played 32 of their last 51 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three runs in two straight games. The Under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 34-13-5 in the Dodgers’ last 52 games at home against teams with a winning record. The Under is also 8-1-1 in their last 10 home games in the playoffs. They counter with Buehler who is 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in thirty starts this season. The right-hander has been particularly tough at home where he enjoys a 2.86 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in fourteen starts. The Under is 19-6-3 in the Dodgers’ last 28 home games with Buehler on the mound — and the Under is 11-0-2 in LA’s last 13 home games with Buehler facing a team with a winning record. Buehler has a 2.92 ERA in his two previous starts against the Nationals this season.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* MLB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (917) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (918) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Corbin and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-19 |
Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 50 |
Top |
29-30 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 9-point favorite. Seattle (3-1) comes off a 27-10 win at Arizona on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Los Angeles defense could not stop Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers offense — they surrendered 464 yards in that game. This team had entered the Week Four having allowed the second-fewest points in the league to the Patriots — and they are still only allowing 330.2 total YPG even after what the Bucs did to them. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Look for head coach Sean McVay to commit to getting running back Todd Gurley involved in this game early. McVay claimed he wanted Gurley to get around 25 touches last week against the Buccaneers — but falling behind early in that game lulled the LA offense into relying on their passing attack. Gurley did not even get his first touch in that game until their fourth possession in the eighteenth offensive play of the game. In fact, Gurley has rushed the ball only 19 times in the first half in the first four games of the season with that mark rising to 30 combined carries in the second half so far this year (with a nice 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry mark). Jared Goff completed 45 of 68 passes in that game for 517 yards — but the Rams only ran the ball 11 times all game for a mere 28 yards. The Rams have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after they attempted at least 50 passes in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Getting Gurley involved earlier in the game will also help Goff sell the play-action pass — he has a low 60 Passer Rating on play-action passes this season because defenses are not taking the bait on the potential handoff to the running back. More running will also help Goff in the passing game where he is not nearly as effective as he is when playing at home. Los Angeles is averaging 298 passing YPG this season with Goff completing 64.2% of his passes while averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt — but those marks drop to just 219 passing YPG into their two road games this season with Goff completing just 61.7% of his passes while averaging just 5.7 YPA. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Seattle rebounded from their upset loss at home to the Saints by being on offense for 33:24 minutes of their game with the Cardinals. The Seahawks will want to continue to control the clock to keep the Rams offense off the field while keeping their defense fresh. Seattle has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Seahawks have scored at least 27 points in each of their last three games — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games. Furthermore, Seattle has averaged 6.78 and 6.18 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last two games — and they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Additionally, the Seahawks have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in Weeks 5 through 9.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams will likely look to establish their ground game tonight — and that will burn time off the moving clock. The possibility of thunderstorms may also play a big role in this contest being a battle of the respective rushing attacks. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 encounters in Seattle Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-02-19 |
Rays v. A's OVER 7 |
|
5-1 |
Loss |
-112 |
5 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (913) and the Oakland A’s (914) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Sean Manaea. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (96-66) has lost two straight games after their 8-3 loss in Toronto to the Blue Jays as a money-line favorite priced in the -220 range. Oakland (97-65) enters the postseason having lost two of their last three games after their 3-1 loss in Seattle on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rays have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after an upset loss to an AL East rival — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after suffering an upset loss to a divisional rival when they were priced at least at -150. This is Tampa Bay’s fourth game on the road — and they have played 33 of their last 55 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games on the road. Furthermore, the Rays have played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced at least at +100. They give the ball to their ace in Morton who is 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in thirty-three starts this season. The right-hander has done his best pitching at home where he has a 2.59 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 — but those numbers all rise to a 3.59 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in his sixteen starts on the road. Even worse, over his last five starts on the road, Morton has a rough 7.52 ERA. Tampa Bay has played 4 straight road games Over the Total with Morton on the mound. Oakland enters this series not hitting the ball very well — they have only scored one run in each of their last two games while hitting just .170 over their last three contests. The A’s have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to hit better than .175 over their last three games — and they have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last two games. They host this game where the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Oakland has also played 4 of their last 5 playoffs games Over the Total. Manager Bob Melvin has tapped Sean Manaea to be his starting pitcher tonight after the talented left-hander returned from a twelve-month hiatus after recovering from a torn labrum to produce a 4-0 record with a 1.21 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP in five starts last month. Before his injury last year, Manaea had a 12-9 record with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. But he was less effective at home last season where he had a 3.86 ERA as opposed to his 3.27 ERA on the road. Even this season, Manaea’s 2.13 ERA in two starts at home in contrasted by his 0.53 ERA in three starts on the road. The A’s have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with Manaea pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range. He faces a Rays team that has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The last time these two teams played it was back on June 23rd when Tampa Bat won in Oakland by an 8-2 score. The Rays have then played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by at least six runs. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (913) and the Oakland A’s (914) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Sean Manaea. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-19 |
Brewers v. Nationals OVER 7.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the Washington Nationals (912) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (89-73) plays in this single-elimination game having lost three straight games over the weekend in Colorado that culminated in a 4-3 loss to the Rockies on Sunday. Washington (93-69) has won eight in a row after their 8-2 victory at home over Cleveland on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have been crushing the baseball during this winning streak — they have scored at least eight runs in their last three games. Over their last seven games, Washington is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .302 batting average along with a .378 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .891. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Nationals’ last 4 games after a victory —and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total. They stay at home to host this playoff game where the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the number set at 7 to 7.5. The Over is also 7-3-1 in the Nats’ last 11 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They give the ball to Scherzer who is 11-7 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in twenty-seven starts this season. But the ace right-hander has not been the same since coming off the disabled list with a back injury. In his seven starts since his return, Scherzer has a 4.74 ERA over 38 innings of work. Scherzer also has a surprising 4.00 ERA in his 27 innings of work at home in playoff games with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .243 which are all numbers much higher than what he usually produces. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Scherzer on the hill — and they have also played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with Scherzer pitching at night. Milwaukee has played 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new series Over the Total. They counter with Woodruff who is 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander was out for two months with an oblique injury and has only pitched twice in two two-inning stints since his return from the disabled list. Woodruff has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 3.06 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and .227 opponent’s batting average — but those numbers rise to a 4.41 ERA along with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in his nine starts on the road. The Brewers have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Woodruff on the mound when facing a team with a winning record. Woodruff will not likely pitch more than a couple of innings before giving way to Jordan Lyles. He has a 12-8 record this season with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in twenty-eight starts — but his ERA rises to a 4.36 mark in his fourteen starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on August 18th in Washington where the Nationals won by a 16-8 score. Milwaukee has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging a road loss by at least eight runs. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 encounters Over the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Washington. 25* MLB Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the Washington Nationals (912) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-19 |
Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
3-27 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-3) looks to bounce-back from their 21-17 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh (0-3) remained winless this season with their 24-20 loss at San Francisco last Sunday as a 6-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals fell behind to the Bills by a 14-0 score at halftime while only managing 306 total yards of offense in that game. Cincinnati has then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after trading beat last two touchdowns at halftime in their last game — and the Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. The Bengals have also played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after losing a game where they covered the point spread as the underdog. Furthermore, this team has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing three straight games. The problems with the Cincy offense starts with the ground game. After managing to average 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry against the Bills last week, they actually raised their YPC mark for the season to just 2.4 YPC which remains dead last in the league. The Bengals running backs are not getting much help at all from their offensive line — they are averaging just 0.3 yards before contact which is also last in the NFL. These limitations in their rushing attack have made Cincinnati one-dimensional. Quarterback Andy Dalton is averaging 43.3 passing attempts per game which is well above his previous season-high of 36.6 passing attempts per game. The Bengals stay on the road where the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The defense has also been an issue for this team after they allowed Buffalo to generate 416 yards last week. Cincinnati has played 31 of their last 46 road games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Under the Total after giving up at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Pittsburgh has played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Mason Rudolph struggled in his first start for this team after the season-ending injury to Big Ben Roethlisberger. He completed just 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards against the Niners last week. San Francisco was also able to concentrate on slowing down James Connor — the Steelers managed to rush for only 79 yards on 22 carries last week. Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. With the Steelers struggling with their offensive line, head coach Mike Tomlin will need more from his defense that is better than how they have played this season. The addition of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick will certainly help. Pittsburgh surrendered 168 rushing yards along with 268 passing yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Moving forward, the Steelers have played 8 straight games Under the Total after playing a non-conference opponent — and they have also played 38 of their last 56 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh Under the Total. Expect a low-scoring game between these two desperate divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-19 |
Cowboys v. Saints UNDER 48 |
|
10-12 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (275) and the New Orleans Saints (276). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-0) looks to continue their winning ways after their 31-6 win over Miami as a 22-point favorite last week. New Orleans (2-1) comes off a 33-27 upset victory at Seattle as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints scored 33 points last week despite only generating 265 yards of offense. New Orleans ranks just 21st in the NFL by averaging 339.7 total Yards-Per-Game this season with Teddy Bridgewater playing in seven of those twelve quarters after the injury to quarterback Drew Brees. The fact is that the Saints’ potent offense has been waning since Week 13 of last season in their 13-10 loss in Dallas to these Cowboys. After a torrid four-week stretch where New Orleans scored 175 points with a minimum of 31 points in each of those games, New Orleans only scored 31 points one more time for the rest of the season through the playoffs — and they averaged just 19.7 PPG over their final seven games. Two of the Saints’ touchdowns last week came from a 53-yard punt return for a touchdown as well as a 53-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. That production obscures the mere 265 yards of offense they generated against the Seattle defense. New Orleans has then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Saints have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The New Orleans defense has surrendered at least 27 points in all three of their games this season — but they have then played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing at least 25 points in two straight contests. Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Cowboys are allowing just 14.7 PPG along with only 336.0 total YPG. And while they have scored at least 31 points in all three of their games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. The Dallas offense has generated at least 474 yards in all three of their games as well — but they have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in three straight contests. And in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home, the Cowboys have played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: It was a low scoring game the last time these two teams played last November 29th with just 23 combined points scored. Look for both teams to rely on their ground games and emerging defenses. 10* NFL Dallas-New Orleans NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (275) and the New Orleans Saints (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-19 |
Eagles v. Packers UNDER 47.5 |
|
34-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-2) has lost two straight games after their 27-24 upset loss at home to Detroit on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) remained unbeaten on Sunday with their 27-16 win over Denver as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have been hampered by injuries on both sides of the football. They will be without wide receiver DeSean Jackson, defensive tackle Marlin Jackson, linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill, and cornerback Ronald Darby for this game. While the team expects to get wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey back for this game, the offense will miss Jackson who offers the team the deep threat they need to stretch out the opposing defense. Mike Wallace was supposed to fill this role last season — but his season-ending ankle injury limited their offense last year with the late acquisition of Golden Tate not really working as a remedy. Philadelphia averaged only 22.9 PPG which was just 18th in the NFL. The Eagles were also just 17th in the NFL in Red Zone production after leading the league in that level of production in their Super Bowl year. Philly did lead the NFL by averaging 32:25 minutes in time of possession — and controlling the clock to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field will likely be the plan tonight. The Eagles’ offense last week was slowed down by seven dropped passes. Philly did outgain the Lions by +86 net yards but surrendering a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown ultimately served as the difference in that game. The Eagles defense has been playing well despite the injuries. In their two road games this year, they have allowed 22.0 PPG along with just 329.7 total YPG. They have been particularly stingy against the run as they are allowing only 57 rushing YPG on 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. The 87 rushing yards the Lions generated against them was the most they have allowed all season —but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing ads in their last game. Philadelphia has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Green Bay’s defense has been a pleasant surprise for them so far this season. They are tied for third in the NFL with four interceptions and 12 sacks — and the 11.7 PPG they are allowing this season is tops in the NFC. The Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. But the offense has remained a work in progress in the marriage between Rodgers and rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Green Bay is scoring only 19.3 PPG while averaging just 286.7 total YPG which is 28th in the league. Perhaps more tellingly, the Packers are converting on just 25% of their 3rd downs which is 29th in the league. Green Bay is running the ball more in this new offensive system — but they gained only 77 rushing yards on 23 carries last week. The Packers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Green Bay has also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams from the NFC.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total when playing in Green Bay’s Lambeau Field. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Green Bay NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-25-19 |
Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 10.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (967) and the Toronto Blue Jays (968) listing both starting pitchers Gabriel Ynoa and Jacob Waguespack. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (52-106) won the second game of this series last night by an 11-4 score. Toronto (64-94) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. Baltimore has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after scoring at least 10 runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Orioles have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total again teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams from the AL East. They give the ball to Ynoa who is 1-9 with a 5.65 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 106 2/3 innings this season. The right-hander particularly struggled on the road with a 6.34 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .284 in 49 2/3 innings of work in seventeen appearances which include six starts. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Ynoa on the mound. And while their bullpen has thrown 13 1/3 innings of work over their last two games, they have then played a decisive 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total after their bullpen pitched at least 9 combined innings over their last two games. Ynoa has surrendered 27 gopher balls this season — and he faces a Blue Jays team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is also 9-1-1 in Toronto’s last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Blue Jays’ bullpen has pitched a whopping 11 and 8 innings apiece in their last two games — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total when they have pitched at least 5 innings in two straight games. Furthermore, the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a win — and the Over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Over is 5-0-1 in Toronto’s last 6 games at home — and the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They counter with Waguespack who is 4-5 with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in twelve starts (fifteen games). The right-hander has struggled at home where he owns a 5.96 ERA along with a 1.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .308 in four starts (six games). The Over is 3-0-1 in the Blue Jays’ last 4 games with Waguespack pitching on astroturf. He faces a Baltimore team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Orioles have scored 26 combined runs over their last two games — and they are scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Toronto is averaging 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games themselves. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (967) and the Toronto Blue Jays (968) listing both starting pitchers Gabriel Ynoa and Jacob Waguespack. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-24-19 |
Phillies v. Nationals OVER 8 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (907) and the Washington Nationals (908) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: Washington (87-69) won the opening game of their doubleheader today with the Phillies by a 4-1 score. The Nationals have now won four of their last five games while Philadelphia (79-76) has five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 3-1-1 in the Phillies’ last 5 games on the road — and the Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Nola who is 12-6 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The sabermetrics indicate that Nola is overachieving this season with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.14 and 3.83 respectively moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.99 ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in fourteen starts as compared to his 2.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .219 opponent’s batting average at home. The Phillies have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Nola facing a team with a winning record. Washington has seen the Over go 5-2-2 in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record. The Nationals have also played 17 of their last 23 home games Over the Total in the month of September. They counter with Scherzer who is 10-7 with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in twenty-six starts this season. Scherzer does not seem to be 100% right now as he has a 4.50 ERA since coming off the disabled list back on August 25th. The right-hander has been not quite as good at home as well where he has a 2.97 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .225 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts as opposed to his 2.64 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and .218 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 17-6-1 in Washington’s last 24 games with Scherzer pitching against fellow NL East opponents. The Nationals have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Scherzer pitching against the Phillies.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB National League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (907) and the Washington Nationals (908) listing both starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-19 |
Bears v. Redskins UNDER 42 |
Top |
31-15 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (489) and the Washington Redskins (490). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-1) looks to build off their 16-14 win in Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Washington (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-21 loss at home to Dallas as a 6-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The biggest problem for this team has been with their offense as they have managed only one touchdown. Third-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looks like he has taken a step back this season — he is completing only 58.3% of his passes. Perhaps in what is more telling, head coach Matt Nagy does not seem to trust Trubisky to move the ball with his arm given his play-calling in the first two weeks of the season. The Bears are averaging a mere 265.3 total YPG this season — and defenses are quickly adapting to the lack of a vertical passing attack given Nagy’s apparent discomfort in enabling Trubisky to take chances down the field. Trubisky’s best passing games last year were at home — so expect another conservative game plan from Nagy tonight as Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. This is likely the smart move given the outstanding defense that the Bears possess. Chicago is 4th in the league in total defense while also ranking 6th in rushing defense — and they have registered seven sacks in their first two games. The Bears held the Broncos to only a field goal in the first half last week — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. Chicago has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Bears did allow 372 total yards last week as they bent frequently to the Broncos while rarely breaking — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total wit the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Bears have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Washington has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two straight games. The Skins are ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football. The offense is on their third quarterback with Alex Smith out the year and Colt McCoy out with a leg injury. Case Keenum is solid but not spectacular — but he lacks dynamic weapons with running back Derrius Guice once again on Injured Reserve with a knee injury and tight end Jordan Reed still in the concussion protocol. And this offense really misses left tackle Trent Williams who continues to hold out — his absence has left the Skins’ offensive line a mess. They gained only 255 yards of offense last week against the Cowboys while rushing for only 47 yards. Washington has attempted only 30 rushing plays this season for a mere 75 yards. The Skins have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Washington was outrushed by -166 yards last week — and they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 100 yards. The Skins have also played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 100 yards. Frankly, Washington needs to play better on the defense. Missing Reuben Foster and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who are both injured hurts — but there is still talent on that side of the ball. The Skins have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will be looking to establish their ground game to help put their quarterbacks in better positions to succeed. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (489) and the Washington Redskins (490). Best of luck for us — Frank. (Follow Frank on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper post regarding what team “identity” means and its connection to have a method for handicapping.)
|
09-22-19 |
Rams v. Browns UNDER 51 |
Top |
20-13 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Cleveland Browns (488). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-0) looks to build off their 27-9 win over New Orleans last week as a 2-point favorite. Cleveland (1-1) comes off a 23-3 win in New York against the Jets on Monday Night Football.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And despite gaining 375 yards of offense last week, the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield is experiencing some growing pains in this offense executing the passing game. He completed only 19 of 35 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown and an interception last week. He is dropping too far deep in the pocket on too many of his passing attempts. And when he stays in the pocket, he is too often bailout out with his left leg in his follow-through which is impacting is accuracy. Both of these bad habits can be attributed to his concerns about the opposing team’s pass rush. One of the big costs in acquiring wide receiver Odell Beckham was that had to ship off their solid right guard, Kevin Zeitler, to the Giants to complete the deal. Mayfield has been sacked eight times already this season — he has been sacked once in every ten pass plays this season as compared to his being sacked once every twenty pass plays last year. Those are ominous numbers when now facing Aaron Donald and this Rams defense. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is one of the best in the business — expect him to take Beckham away as a deep threat while daring Mayfield to be willing to be patient with his targets underneath. The Browns have a dynamic pass rush as well led by emerging star Myles Garrett who already has registered five sacks this season. Cleveland has held their first two opponents to just 300.5 total YPG. They return home where the Under is 15-6-1 in their last 22 games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Browns have also played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Los Angeles is also playing outstanding defense after limiting the Saints to just 244 total yards last week (while knocking Drew Brees out of that game). The Rams have held their first two opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with only 293.5 total YPG. They have become a run-heavy team behind Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown who are both averaging over 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry this season. But this Rams team is being challenged with their depth on their offensive line with a rash of injuries at that position. Rookie Jamil Demby, a sixth-round pick, may have to make his first professional start at right guard for Austin Blythe who is out with a left ankle. The LA offense is not as dynamic on the road where they scored a nice 28.4 PPG last season but averaged only 387.6 total YPG — and that was -4 PPG below their season average along with over -30 YPG less than their overall average. QB Jared Goff averaged 342.1 passing YPG at home last year — but that number dropped to just 238 passing YPG on the road. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have outstanding defenses. Both of these offenses have dynamic playmakers but are limited a bit given the respective state of their offensive lines. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Cleveland Browns (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-19 |
Falcons v. Colts UNDER 47 |
|
24-27 |
Loss |
-103 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-1) looks to build off their 24-20 upset win over Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog last Sunday night. Indianapolis (1-1) comes off a 19-17 upset victory of their own at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Atlanta has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Falcons defense played well to shut down the Eagles offense as they allowed only 286 total yards. Philly managed to gain just 49 rushing yards on 21 carries — and the Under is a decisive 61-26-4 in their last 91 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. QB Matt Ryan passed for 320 yards victory — but they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now Atlanta goes back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total. Last week’s game finished below the 53 point Total as well — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 17 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the game finished Under the Total 11 times. Indianapolis has played 29 of their last 42 games Under the Total after an upset victory as an underdog. The Colts held the Titans offense to just 242 total yards including just 119 yards in the air. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. And while that game fell well below the 43.5 point total, they have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Colts return home for this one where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Indy will want to run the ball to keep the Falcons’ potent offense off the field. They managed only 288 total yards in their victory over the Titans. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon O/U Kickoff with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-19 |
Liverpool v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200017) and Chelsea (200018). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W5-D0-L0) remained perfect so far in the English Premier League last Saturday with their 3-1 win at home over Newcastle. Chelsea (W2-D3-L1) comes off a dominant 5-2 win at Wolverhampton last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blues were led by Tammy Abraham who registered a hat trick to lead the way in that big victory over the Wolves. Abraham has already scored seven times for Frank Lampard’s side to give this Chelsea team a scoring threat at forward they have not had since Diego Costa helped them win an EPL championship a few seasons ago. The Blues have scored ten goals in their last three matches as they are finding plenty of scoring opportunities in Lampard’s system. Chelsea is third in the EPL by averaging 16.5 shots per match — and that number rises to 18.7 shots per game when they play at home at Stamford Bridge. But the Blues have also allowed eleven goals this season which is the second-most in the EPL. Lampard’s tactics are leaving this Chelsea team vulnerable in the midfield when they are not possessing the football — and that is a terrifying prospect for them when now facing Mo Salah and Sadio Mane of this powerful Liverpool team. The Reds have scored fifteen goals this season — and the reigning Champions League titleholders are second in the EPL by averaging 18.2 shots per game. Liverpool has seen six combined goals scored in their two road matches this season where they are average 15 shots per match which is also second in the league. An area of concern for this Reds team this season as they strive to win the EPL championship has been the play of their backline which has not been quite as stout as their play of last year. Liverpool has only one clean sheet this season as they have been relying on their prolific scoring attack that has netted at least three goals in four of their five matches.
FINAL TAKE: Chelsea has scored in nineteen of their last twenty matches with Liverpool across all competitions. Expect a higher scoring match. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200017) and Chelsea (200018). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-19 |
Central Florida v. Pittsburgh UNDER 61 |
Top |
34-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Central Florida Knights (319) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (320). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (3-0) remained undefeated this season with their 45-27 clubbing at home against Stanford last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 17-10 loss at Penn State last week as a 17-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knights have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread win. UCF is using their third-string (or fourth string) quarterback this season with freshman Dillon Gabriel getting the snaps. Senior QB McKenzie Milton is out the season with a knee injury and his backup, Darriel Mack, missed all of training camp with an ankle injury. Second-year head coach Josh Heupel brought in Brandon Wimbush from Notre Dame as a transfer student to compete for the starting job but Gabriel’s ability to operate the up-tempo RPO system inspired by the Art Briles school of offense has kept him on the field. But this is still a true freshman playing in a hostile environment for this contest. The Knights have played 4 straight games on the road Under the Total. Gabriel led an offense that generated 545 yards of offense against the Cardinal — but UCF has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Knights have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. While the offense has been getting most of the headlines for this UCF team, they have been outstanding on defense. The Knights limited the Cardinal to just 349 yards of offense last week. While they have allowed just 41 points in their three games this season, most of those points have been surrendered in garbage time in the season half. UCF has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Junior QB Kenny Pickett completed 35 of 51 passes for 372 yards in a losing effort last week — but the Panthers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Fifth-year head coach Pat Narduzzi received plenty of criticism for going for a field goal in the 4th quarter on a 4th-and-one play on the one-yard line — an attempt that was missed — rather than going for the potential game-tying touchdown. While he deserves all the heat for that decision, it demonstrated his confidence in his defense since he assumed his offense would get the ball back again. The former Michigan State defensive coordinator is overseeing a defensive unit this year that is allowing only 19.0 PPG along with just 303.7 total YPG — and that number drops to 261.0 total YPG in their two games at home. The Panthers have played 4 straight home games Under the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. But a troubling observation about this team is that they have not scored an offensive touchdown in the second half of their last six games.
FINAL TAKE: Pitt has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog. They will be looking to avenge a 45-13 loss at UFC last season as a 13.5-point dog. The Total of that game was in the 65.5 range — expect another lower scoring game in this one. 25* CFB Television Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Central Florida Knights (319) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-19 |
Rangers v. A's UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
0-8 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (927) and the Oakland A’s (928) listing both starting pitchers Mike Minor and Mike Fiers. Texas (74-79) has lost five straight games after their 3-2 loss in Houston yesterday. Oakland (92-61) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 1-0 win over Kansas City on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played 6 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Under is also 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after a victory — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an off day. Texas goes back on the road where the Under is 33-16-2 in their last 51 games — and they have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season. The Rangers have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. And in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record overall, Texas has played 19 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Minor who is 13-9 with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in thirty starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.63 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .218 in sixteen starts as compared to his 4.22 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .264 opponent’s batting average at home. The Under is 19-6-1 in the Rangers’ last 26 road games with Minor on the mound — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games with Minor pitching as an underdog. He faces an A’s lineup that is hitting just .235 over their last seven games with a meager .310 On-Base Percentage during that span. The Under is 3-1-1 in Oakland’s last 5 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The A’s have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game — and they have also played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than four runs. Oakland defeated the Royals by a 2-1 score on Tuesday — and they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two straight games just one run. The A’s have also played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 8 or 8.5. They counter with Fiers who is 14-4 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in thirty-one starts. The right-hander has been at his best at home where he owns a 3.15 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in sixteen starts. Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with Fiers pitching with the Total set at 8 to 8.5. They also have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total with Fiers pitching as a big favorite priced at -175 to -250. He faces a Rangers’ team that is hitting just .246 over their last seven games with a .307 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .697 during that span. The Under is 26-8-1 in Texas’ last 35 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The A’s have won the last five meetings between these two teams — and the Rangers have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total when looking to avenge at least four straight losses. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (927) and the Oakland A’s (928) listing both starting pitchers Mike Minor and Mike Fiers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-19 |
Utah v. USC OVER 52.5 |
Top |
23-30 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the USC Trojans (306). THE SITUATION: Utah (3-0) has won their first three games this season after their 31-0 shutout win over Idaho State last week as a 36.5-point favorite. USC (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 30-27 upset loss at BYU in overtime last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Utes have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Utah has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Utes have scored at least 30 points in all three of their games this season in what have been all easy victories by at least 18 points. The ceiling is higher for this Utah offense led by senior quarterback Tyler Huntley and senior running back Zack Moss. Those two helped the Utes score at last 40 points in four straight games during a stretch last year before they both suffered season-ending injuries. Moss has rushed for 371 yards in his three career contests against the Trojans. Huntley is completing 78% of his passes behind an offensive line that has not allowed a sack this year. Huntley has also not thrown an interception. This offense should put up plenty of points against a suspect USC defense that allowed BYU to generate 430 yards last week. The talent at the defensive line has declined under head coach Clay Helton’s tenure — and the secondary had no returning starters from last year along with eight newcomers at cornerback in the fall. Greg Johnson was the only cornerback on the roster with starting experience but he is listed as questionable as he goes through the concussion protocol. And the Trojans’ best defensive lineman, Christian Rector, is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury after not playing last week. The USC defense struggled against dual-threat QB Jorge Reyna to open the season so Huntley is poised to have a big night. Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 13 of their last 19 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. USC has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Trojans did generate 452 yards against the Cougars defense in that loss with freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis completing 24 of 34 passes for 281 yards. Slovis did throw three interceptions in that game — and USC has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where they committed at least three turnovers. The Trojans have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This team is left with Slovis being under center after sophomore Jack Sears entered the transfer portal window after losing the starting gig to J.T. Daniels who then suffered a season-ending knee injury in that opening game against Fresno State. Slovis demonstrated he can operate the new Air Raid offense under head coach Graham Harrell in his first start two weeks ago as he passed for 377 yards three touchdown passes against Stanford. Additionally, the Over is 21-9-2 in the Trojans’ last 32 home games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight contests against each other Over the Total. USC will be feisty to win this game — but they may not be able to keep up with the Utah offense. Expect a higher scoring game. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the USC Trojans (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-19 |
AFC Bournemouth v. Southampton OVER 2.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bournemouth (20001) and Southampton (20002). THE SITUATION: Bournemouth (W2-D1-L2) looks to build off a 3-1 win over Everton last Sunday. Southampton (W2-D1-L2) comes off a 1-0 win over Sheffield City.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Bournemouth has seen each of their last four matches combine for at least three goals scored. The Cherries have scored seven times in those four matches while conceding eight times. With forwards Callum Wilson and Joshua King along with midfielder Ryan Fraser, this Bournemouth team has three players who can score goals — they ranked 7th in the EPL in goals scored last season. But the Cherries are porous on defense. Last season, Bournemouth allowed the third-most goals in the English Premier League. In their nineteen road matches, the Cherries scored 26 times while conceding a whopping 45 goals. Furthermore, in their thirteen road matches against non-Big Six sides, Bournemouth scored 23 goals while conceding 23 times. This season, the Cherries have allowed 15.2 shots per match which is fifth-most in the EPL. That number gets worse on the road where Bournemouth has allowed 19 shots per match which is fourth-most in the league. Southampton also gives up a ton of shots — they allow 15 shots per match which is 6th most in the league. At home, the Saints allowed 18 shots per game which is the second-highest number in the EPL. Southampton conceded the sixth-most shots in the EPL. In their nineteen home matches last year, the Saints scored 27 goals while conceding 30 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two sides last played back on April 27th where Southampton hosted at St. Mary’s in a match that resulted in a 3-3 draw. Expect another higher-scoring match with at least three combined goals scored. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Bournemouth (20001) and Southampton (20002). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-19 |
Titans v. Jaguars UNDER 40 |
Top |
7-20 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (301) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (1-1) looks to bounce-back from their 19-17 upset loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a 3-point favorite. Jacksonville (0-2) also looks to rebound from a 13-12 loss at Houston on Sunday as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans managed only 242 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Colts despite playing on their home field. Quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 19 of 28 passes which is efficient — but they generated just 154 passing yards. Tennessee seems to have abandoned all hope in even demonstrating a drop-back passing game with Mariota — and that likely means that the whispers to have Ryan Tannehill replace him under center are legitimate since at least the former Dolphins quarterback can matriculate the football down the field. Defenses are already adapting to these tendencies by crowding the box to slow down the horizontal passing game along with the rushing attack led by Derrick Henry. These are not encouraging developments for an offense that scored only 19.4 PPG last season (27th in the NFL) while averaging just 312.6 total YPG (25th in the NFL). Head coach Mike Vrabel is likely to continue to rely on his defense that was 8th in the NFL last year by allowing only 333.4 total YPG while also ranking 3rd in the league by giving up just 18.9 PPG. The Titans limited Indianapolis to only 288 total yards last week. Tennessee has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game against an AFC South rival. The Titans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against AFC South foes. And in their last 7 road games when favored by no more than 3 points, Tennessee has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Jaguars have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. And in their last 7 games after a point spread victory, Jacksonville has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville is playing with a backup quarterback Gardner Minshew who was solid last week by completing 23 of 33 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass. But as the regular-season game tape begins to accrue on the rookie quarterback from Washington State, Minshew will experience growing pains. And he is a QB who could certainly use the benefit from a full week of practice given his inexperience at the professional level. He led an offense that managed only 281 yards last week. Now the Jags return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Jacksonville has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Head coach Doug Marrone will also be happy to lean on his defense that allowed only 19.8 PPG last year (4th in the NFL) while giving up just 311.4 total YPG (5th in the league). The Jaguars held Deshaun Watson and the prolific Texans passing attack to only 137 passing yards while registering four sacks — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey has requested for a trade this week — but he looks likely to remain on the roster for at least this game and he should be very motivated to play in front of a nationally televised audience as he auditions for his next team.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Jacksonville last season. These two teams split their two meetings last year with the Jaguars winning by a 9-6 score last September 23rd before the Titans avenged that loss on December 6th with a 30-9 victory. Expect another low scoring game. 25* AFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (301) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-19 |
Houston v. Tulane UNDER 58 |
Top |
31-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (313) and the Tulane Green Wave (314). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-24 loss to Washington State last Friday played on a neutral field at NRG Stadium. Tulane (2-1) comes off a 58-6 blowout win at home over Missouri State last Saturday as a 31.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars are allowing 32.6 PPG along with 506.0 total YPG in their first three games this season — but two of those games were against two of the most potent offenses in the nation in the Cougars and Oklahoma. I have actually been a bit encouraged by the play of this unit that returned only four starters. An influx of six junior college transfers has helped new defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen begin to stabilize this unit. Houston has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The bigger concern for the Cougars has been integrating senior quarterback D’Eriq King into the first-year head coach Dana Holgorsen’s version of the Air Raid offense. Houston is averaging only 146 passing YPG this season (which includes a cupcake game against Prairie Valley A&M) which is 120th in the nation. King is completing only 54.5% of his passes which is almost a 10% decline from last season. King passed for just 128 yards last week against Washington State — and the Cougars have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. Houston did rush for 239 yards last week — they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. The Cougars are averaging 239 rushing YPG this season with an incredibly consistent output of 241, 236, and 239 rushing yards this season — so expect more of the same from this team with the added benefit of a ground game moving the clock and keeping the Green Wave offense off the field. The Under is 7-3-1 in Houston’s last 11 games in the month of September. Tulane has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Green Wave held the Tigers last week to just 182 yards of offense — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Tulane defense has played well this season — they limited Auburn to 379 total yards which include a mere 207 yards in the air so their ability to limit the Cougars passing attack is pretty good. On offense, senior quarterback Justin McMillan has passed for only 424 yards in his three games with just two touchdown passes. The Green Wave have played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Tulane rushed for 298 yards in that contest last week — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Green Wave have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total after Houston’s 48-17 victory last season fell Under the 68 point Total. The Cougars offense is still working out some kinks this year — expect a lower scoring contest. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (313) and the Tulane Green Wave (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-19 |
Browns v. Jets UNDER 46 |
Top |
23-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (289) and the New York Jets (290). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 43-13 upset loss at home to Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (0-1) also looks to rebound from an upset loss in their 17-16 setback at home to Buffalo where they were laying 2.5-points.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets are a hot mess of M*A*S*H Unit right now with a couple of suspensions making this attrition even worse. Quarterback Sam Darnold is out weeks while he loses weight dealing with mono. Wide receiver Quincy Enunwa is on Injured Reserve with a neck issue. Running back Le’Veon Bell is dealing with a bum shoulder. Three starters on the offensive line are questionable. Trevor Siemian will be the starting quarterback tonight — and with check down Charlie in Adam Gase calling the plays, don’t be surprised if the former Denver starting quarterback never throws a pass past the first down marker. Even with Sam Darnold under center last week, the Jets offense managed just 223 yards in their first regular-season under Gase who is the master of 8-yard pickup on 3rd-and-12. The defense is also dealing with some tough injuries headlined by linebacker C.J. Mosely and rookie defensive tackle Quinnen Williams out with a groin and an ankle. But I still expect an inspired effort from this group led by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who will be chomping at the bit to have his defense go after the quarterback he served as the interim head with last season. Bell has been upgraded to probable so expect the Jets to give a healthy dose to the running back as they look to control the clock and keep the Browns’ offense off the field. New York has played 14 of their last 31 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss to an AFC East rival as a home favorite. The Jets have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of September. Gase’s teams in Miami also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total in September — and they played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss to a divisional rival. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Browns have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss at home by at least three touchdowns. The Cleveland defense did not play bad last week — they allowed only 339 total yards. But with eighteen penalties that produced another 182 negative yards accompanying a -3 net turnover margin, the Titans were able to put up 43 points on the board. The Browns should respond with a strong defensive effort after all that — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. On offense, Mayfield may not be 100% after suffering a thumb injury in that game. Moving forward, the Under is 5-1-1 in Cleveland’s last 7 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: With both of these teams coming off upset losses last week, the Under is supported by an empirical angle that has been 77% effective over the last ten seasons. In games involving a team that suffered an upset loss facing an opponent that comes off a double-digit upset loss, these games then finished Under the Total in 30 of these last 39 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (289) and the New York Jets (290). Best of luck for us — Frank (follow on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper where he looks back to explain why he, fortunately, passed on a tempting CFB situation on Saturday that perhaps looked too good to be true).
|
09-16-19 |
West Ham United v. Aston Villa UNDER 3 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between West Ham (200189) and Aston Villa (200190). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W2-D1-L1) returns to English Premier League after the international break after defeating Norwich City by a 2-0 score on August 31st. Aston Villa (W1-D0-L3) looks to bounce-back from their 1-0 loss at Crystal Palace back on August 31st in EPL action.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: West Ham’s clean sheet against Norwich City looks even more impressive now after the promoted upstarts upset Manchester City on Saturday while scoring three goals against the two-time defending champions. After an opening week 5-0 loss at home to Man City, the Hammers have conceded only two goals in their next three matches. Now West Ham goes back on the road where they fifteen of their last seventeen games on the road in EPL action have not seen more than three combined goals. Furthermore, West Ham is averaging just 1.5 Goals-Per-Game in their last fourteen games on the road against the non-Big Six teams in the EPL going back to the start of last season — and they are conceding just 1.29 Goals-Per-Game in those contests. Aston Villa has seen three of their four matches this season see three or less combined goals scored with the lone exception being against one of the Power Six sides in Tottenham. The Villains were promoted from the Championship League last year via their playoffs. Aston Villa conceded more goals at home than the last-place team in that league so management realized that upgrading the backend was essential for the team’s return to the EPL after a three-year absence. The Villains added left-back Matt Targett from Southampton while received center back Tyrone Mings on loan from Bournemouth. They also made a nice upgrade with their keeper by adding Tom Heaton from the crowded goalie situation at Burnley. Manager Dean Smith is probably playing his star man midfielder, Jack Grealish, 10 to 15 yards too far back on the pitch — but that demonstrates his commitment to defensive tactics for this team. Aston Villa has scored only three times in their four matches — but they have only allowed three combined goals in their three matches outside their 3-1 loss to the Spurs. The Villains rank a respectable 11th in the EPL in Expected Goals Allowed (xGA)— but this has come at a cost of offense as they also rank second-to-last in Expected Goals (xG). In their two home matches this season, Aston Villa has allowed only two goals while scoring just three times.
FINAL TAKE: I do not see four combined goals scored in this match with the Villains playing cautiously and quite content to register a point with a draw. Look for this match to have two goals (or less) scored with less than ten minutes left where we will then be sweating the win or living with the Push. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon NBC-Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between West Ham (200189) and Aston Villa (200190). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-19 |
Eagles v. Falcons OVER 52 |
Top |
20-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (287) and the Atlanta Falcons (288). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 32-27 win over Washington as a 10.5-point favorite. Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 28-12 loss at Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles where slugging on offense in the first half by scoring only 7 points. Perhaps Carson Wentz and company were rusty after not getting much playing time in the preseason — but they exploded in the second half by scoring 25 points en route to 436 yards of offense against an underrated Washington defense. Philadelphia has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles defense also held the Skins to just 28 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 30 rushing yards. But the Philly pass defense was torched by the mighty Case Keenum who passed for 380 yards against them. This is an area of concern for the Eagles after they ranked 30th in the NFL last season by allowing 269.3 passing YPG. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 total yards in their last game. Those are ominous numbers when facing this Falcons team behind Matt Ryan who was 4th in the NFL last year by averaging 290.8 passing YPG. Philadelphia goes on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have also played 13 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Additionally, the Over is a decisive 13-3-1 in the Eagles’ last 17 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Atlanta has played 32 of their last 48 games Over the Total after a loss on the road by at least two touchdowns. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. While putting their rookie right guard, Chris Lindstrom, on Injured Reserve derails some of the plans this team had with their offensive line, Ryan oversaw a potent offense last season even with the deficiencies on their offensive line. The Falcons were 6th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 389.1 total YPG — and they have a healthy Devonta Freeman back in their backfield after he missed all but two games. The Falcons were also burdened with the third-worst starting field position in the NFL with their average starting point at their 26.3-yard line. Atlanta averaged 37.97 Yards-Per-Drive which was 4th best in the NFL. Ryan was more effective at home where he completed 72.7% of his passes while averaging 8.82 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt — and he tossed 18 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. The Falcons scored a robust 29.6 PPG when playing at home last year.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of September. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total. Expect a higher scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (287) and the Atlanta Falcons (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-19 |
Manchester City v. Norwich City OVER 4 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200193) and Norwich City (200194). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W3-D1-L0) returns from the international break coming off a 4-0 victory at home over Brighton and Hove Albion two Saturdays ago. Norwich City (W1-D0-L3) looks to bounce back from a 2-0 loss to West Ham back on August 31st.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Norwich City was prompted from the Championship League after finishing in first place in that league. The Canaries accomplished that feat with an aggressive attack with manager Daniel Farke emphasizing shot volume. Their average match last season saw 3.26 combined goals which is the highest number for a promoted side into the English Premier League in ten seasons. But this style of play had consequences as this side was leaky on defense — they conceded 57 goals last year which was the third most in that league. Farke has not backed down with this style of play against EPL competition — they rank tied for 6th in the EPL with six goals. Furthermore, the Canaries average 5.3 shots per game on target which is 6th best in the league — and that number rises to 6.5 shots on target per game when playing at home which ranks 4th best in the EPL. They are led by their feisty forward, Teemu Pukki who has scored five times already this season. Don’t be surprised if Norwich City scores a goal in this game. But they will likely concede at least four goals against the reigning EPL champions. The Canaries have allowed ten goals in their four matches this season which is the most in the EPL. The 47 shots they have allowed in the box also tops the league. Playing at home did not make much of a difference last season either as the 34 goals they allowed which was 15th worst in the league. To compound matters, this Norwich City side is ravaged with injuries in their midfield and their defense. Defensemen Max Aarons has a knock from international play over the break while Ben Godfrey who is out with a groin injury — and that challenges the limited depth of this promoted side on their backline. And here comes Manchester City with a rested Sergio Aguero who did not play for Argentina over the break with that national team going young after years of disappointment in international play. A rested Aguero — who will absolutely play with fellow forward Gabriel Jesus dealing with a thigh injury — should have a field day against this defense. Aguero has scored in all four of the Citizens matches this season. Man City is 2nd in the EPL in goals scored with 14 — and they lead the EPL in Expected Goals scored (xG). Additionally, Man City leads the EPL with 19.35 shots per game — and they lead the league with 7.5 shots per game on target. As scary as this sounds, this team maybe even better than last year’s group with midfielder extraordinaire Kevin DeBruyne now fully healthy again after he dealt with injuries last season. DeBruyne is an assist machine who may have the best foot 40 yards away in the world. Manchester City scored 75 goals last season in their 29 matches against the non-Big Six sides last season. If there is a weakness with this side, it is with their backline with manager Pep Guardiola still searching for four reliable starters who play well together. An injury to Aymeric Laporte takes away one of their best defenders for this match.
FINAL TAKE: To Farke’s credit — or demise — he will not deviate from his strategy of attacking the opposition and having his defensive line play aggressively up the pitch. Norwich City will not play for a nil-nil draw — but they are likely to see a 4-1 (or worse) result. 25* English Premier League Saturday NBC-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200193) and Norwich City (200194). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-19 |
Ohio State v. Indiana OVER 59 |
Top |
51-10 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (109) and the Indiana Hoosiers (110). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (2-0) enters this game coming off their dominant 42-0 shutout victory over Cincinnati last Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite. Indiana (2-0) is also undefeated so far this season after they crushed Eastern Illinois last week by a 52-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes offense generated 508 yards of offense against what had been considered a stout Cincinnati defense last week. Sophomore quarterback Justin Fields has fit right into first-year teach coach Jason Day’s offense. The transfer from Georgia has passed for 561 yards in his first two games while throwing nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also added 42 yards on the ground last week against the Bearcats while finding the end zone two times in displaying in his dual-threat capabilities. The Over is 3-0-1 in Ohio State’s last 4 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes also flexed their muscles on defense by holding Cincinnati to just 273 yards of offense. But this Ohio State defense has regressed as of late. They allowed 25.5 PPG last year which was the highest number they have allowed since 1999 while placing them a mediocre tied for 51st in the nation. Even worse, the 403.4 total YPG that the Buckeyes allowed last year was the most they have allowed in 50 years. Nine starters return from that unit that is now operating under new defensive coordinators in Jeff Hafley and Greg Mattison who was poached from Michigan to help with recruiting given his knowledge of the midwest as well as his Super Bowl ring coordinating the Ray Lewis Baltimore Ravens over a decade ago. Frankly, there has been a drop off in recruiting over the years at linebacker and defensive back. So while the Buckeyes held the Bearcats to just 273 yards of offense last week, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Ohio State has also played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road. And in their last 5 games played on field turf, the Over is 3-1-1. Indiana has also been impressive on offense after gaining 555 yards last week against Eastern Illinois. The Hoosiers have then played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Indiana will push the tempo against Ohio State with the hopes of tiring out their athletes on defense. They averaged one play per 22.8 seconds last season which was the 20th fastest tempo in the FBS last year. The third-year head coach has quarterback talent at his disposal with junior Peyton Ramsey back after making all twelve starts last season along with freshman Jack Tuttle who was a four-star recruit who transferred from Utah. But Allen and offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer decided on freshman Michael Penix, Jr. to be their starter given his strong arm and dual-threat running capabilities. He played in three games last year before suffering a season-ending injury that allowed him to redshirt the season. All three quarterbacks played last week but it will likely be Penix under center for this game with Ramsey possibly getting in the game as a change of pace or in mop-up work. The Hoosiers only allowed 116 yards last week to that FCS opponent so let's take that with a grain of salt. Indiana has played 15 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also played 25 of their last 32 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Hoosiers returned seven starters on defense but it was from a group that allowed their opponents to average +28 YPG above their offensive YPG season average last season which was 93rd worst in the nation. Indiana has played 5 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in Big Ten play.
FINAL TAKE: Ohio State won last year’s meeting by a 49-26 score as a 27.5-point favorite in Columbus. While Indiana may need garbage time to do it, I do expect them to approach that 26 scoring figure at home this season in what looks like a more dynamic offense. But the Buckeyes will likely reach 40 points in this one — and the Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams when playing in Bloomington. With Indiana playing at a fast tempo and Ohio State happy to take the extra possessions, expect a higher scoring game. 25* CFB Fox-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (109) and the Indiana Hoosiers (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-19 |
Kansas State v. Mississippi State UNDER 52 |
|
31-24 |
Loss |
-117 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (111) and the Mississippi State Bulldogs (112). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (2-0) looks to build off their 52-0 victory over Bowling Green last Saturday as a 25-point favorite. Mississippi State (2-0) has also won their first two games of the season after defeating Southern Mississippi last week by a 16.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kansas State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Wildcats have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Most of those team trends were under the watch of their legendary head coach Bill Snyder who retired after last season. First-year head coach Chris Klieman takes over the program after winning four FCS national championships in five seasons at North Dakota State. Ordinarily, I ignore team trends when new head coaches take over — but Klieman is continuing Snyder’s philosophy of winning through defense and running the football. Kansas State has averaged controlling the football for 42 minutes per game in their first two contests — and keeping the opposing offense off the field while watching the clock move is a good formula for Unders. The Wildcats held the Falcons to just 140 yards of offense in their dominant win last week. Kansas State has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not giving up more than 20 points in their last contest. The Wildcats are averaging a whopping 347 rushing YPG in their first two games after generating 333 rushing yards against Bowling Green — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, Kansas State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they had played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12. And in their last 8 games in the month of September, the Wildcats have played 7 of these games Under the Total. Mississippi State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bulldogs have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Mississippi State defense was bound to take a step back this season after returning only four starters and losing three players to the first round of the NFL draft. They have held their first two opponents to 387 total YPG. But they have still played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Second-year head coach Joe Moorhead is dealing with injuries on his offense with quarterback Tommy Stevens having to leave last game with a shoulder injury and his offensive line having multiple players banged up. Stevens has been upgraded to probable for this game but the Penn State transfer may not be at full strength. Moorhead will likely look to run the ball as well with his offense averaging 235 rushing YPG after gaining 210 yards on the ground last week. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Mississippi State stays home for this game where they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bulldogs have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Mississippi State won the meeting between these two teams last year by a 31-10 score on the road in Manhattan. Expect this game to become a battle of Time of Possession with both head coaches looking to protect their defenses by trying to keep them fresh. 10* CFB Kansas State-Mississippi State O/U ESPN Special with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (111) and the Mississippi State Bulldogs (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-13-19 |
Ottawa v. BC UNDER 49.5 |
Top |
5-29 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (689) and the British Columbia Lions (690). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (3-8) has lost four straight games as well as eight of their last nine games after their 46-17 upset loss at home Toronto despite being a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday. British Columbia (1-10) looks to find a victory after losing at Montreal last Friday by a 21-16 score as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Redblacks are on the verge of losing complete control of their season after losing to Calgary in the Grey Cup last November. But this remains a proud franchise under head coach Rick Campbell who has been the skipper here since the football team was reformed in the Canadian Football League back in 2014. Expect this team to respond with a strong effort after being embarrassed by a bad Toronto team. Ottawa has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Campbell has been benched Dominique Davis at quarterback with the hopes that the veteran Jonathan Jennings could give his team a spark. Jennings completed 33 of 42 passes last week for 327 yards in the losing effort. Ottawa had 354 passing yards overall in that game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game. The Redblacks now go back on the road where they are scoring only 18.6 PPG while averaging 303.6 total YPG. Over their last three games, this team is scoring only 14.0 PPG along with 338.0 total YPG. Last week’s game finished well above the 51 point total — but Ottawa has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. The Redblacks have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a game where at least 63 combined points were scored. Ottawa did allow 487 yards last week while allowing the Argonauts to average 8.1 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. Turnovers are killing this team as they have endured a -13 net turnover margin this season after losing the turnover battle in two straight games. But the Redblacks have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after suffering a -1 net turnover margin in at least two straight games. Ottawa has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of September. British Columbia has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in September. Despite their seven-game losing streak, this Lions team is playing better defense as they have held their last three opponents to just 22.0 PPG along with only 298.0 total YPG. But British Columbia is generating just 307.3 total YPG over their last three contests. The Lions have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. Furthermore, BC has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss by 8 points or less. Now this team returns home where they have scored only 14.2 PPG while averaging just 230.7 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first time since Week Four when the Lions were favored on the road against Toronto — and they won that game by an 18-17 score. British Columbia has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored. Expect a low scoring game with at least one of these offenses continuing to struggle to score. 25* CFL ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (689) and the British Columbia Lions (690). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-19 |
Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 51 |
Top |
20-14 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) and the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 31-17 upset loss at home to San Francisco on Sunday. Carolina (0-1) comes off a 30-27 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams where they closed as a small +1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Jameis Winston was not magically transformed in his first game under new head coach Bruce Arians as he completed just 20 of 36 passes for 194 yards while throwing three interceptions in that loss to the 49ers. Arians has had success with some big names quarterbacks in the past — but the growth of Peyton Manning did not demonstrate itself until his second season with Arians while Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer did not see their big bumps in play until their third with the coach. The Buccaneers generated only 295 yards of offense in that game with one of their touchdowns coming from a 15-yard interception return. But the encouraging aspect of that loss to San Francisco was the improved play of the defense under first-year defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. After ranking 27th in the NFL by allowing 383.4 total YPG, Bowles defense limited the 49ers to only 256 total yards. This defense had nowhere to go but up after being at the bottom of the league over the last two seasons — but this group was also hit hard by the injury bug as they lost 92 adjusted games to injury according to the analytics (which was the most in NFL history using that measurement). Arians and Bowles also significantly remodeled this defense with draft picks and free-agent acquisitions headlined by bringing in Ndamukong Suh. The Niners put 31 points up on the board but two of those touchdowns came from two pick-sixes surrendered by Winston (which was clearly a topic of conversation with Arians this week). As it is, Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total suffering an upset loss at home by at least two touchdowns. And in their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Bucs have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. The Panthers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Quarterback Cam Newton was not very impressive in that loss as he completed 25 of 38 passes for just 239 yards with zero touchdown passes and an interception while failing to gain positive rushes with his legs. While head coach Ron Rivera claims Newton is completely healthy, he did injure his leg in the preseason which might be slowing him down now. Furthermore, Newton may not be fully recovered from the shoulder problems from last year which severely limited his effectiveness in the second half of last season — there was talk at one point of the team shutting down their franchise quarterback for the entire season like Indianapolis did with Andrew Luck two years ago. Newton enjoyed a sensational month of October in his first season under offensive coordinator Norv Turner before things went south when the team lost seven of their last eight games with Newton’s arm strength limited with his shoulder injury. But according to the DVOA metric used by Football Outsiders, the Panthers have only ranked in the top-ten in offensive efficiency just once in their last five seasons with their average finish being 16th in the NFL — so this will likely remain a middling offense. Moving forward, Carolina has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games played in Carolina Under the Total. With the Total set in the high 40s, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) and the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-19 |
Yankees v. Tigers OVER 10.5 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 5:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (929) and the Detroit Tigers (930) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Spencer Turnbull. THE SITUATION: Detroit (43-100) has won three of their last five games after their 12-11 win over the Yankees in the opening game of this series on Tuesday. New York (95-51) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with that loss. Yesterday’s game was postponed due to weather so this pitching matchup represents the second game of their afternoon double-header.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is now a decisive 51-25-3 in the Yankees’ last 79 games on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Additionally, New York has played 14 of their last 18 road games Over the Total when priced at least at -175 as the favorite. The Bronx Bombers have also played 35 of their last 56 games Over the Total with the number set at 10 or higher. They give the ball to Sabathia who comes off the disabled list to make this start — he is 5-8 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in twenty starts this year. The veteran left-hander has struggled in the second-half of the season with a 7.77 ERA in his six starts since the All-Star break. He has been particularly ineffective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 6.75 mark along with a 1.62 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .312. New York has played 4 straight games Over the Total with Sabathia pitching on the road. He will be followed up by Domingo German with manager Aaron Boone looking to limit the innings of both pitchers going into the postseason. The right-hander has a 17-4 record with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season — and he has struggled on the road with a 5.73 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .257 as opposed to his 2.35 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and .197 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. They face a hot-hitting Tigers team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .282 batting average along with a .320 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .720 over that span (which all compare favorably to their 3.7/.240/291/.680 splits for the entire season). Detroit has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home. And in their last 7 second games of a double-header, the Tigers have played 5 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Turnbull who is 3-14 with a 4.68 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.92 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .281 in fourteen starts. Turnbull also has a 5.07 ERA in his twelve starts during the day with a 1.56 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .296. The Over is 3-0-2 in Detroit’s last 5 games with Turnbull facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Yankees team that is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .264 batting average along with a .330 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .907.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams entering the opening game of this afternoon’s doubleheader. With bullpens strained a bit today (especially after last night’s scoring fest), except a high scoring second game in this double-header. 25* MLB American League Getaway Game Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (929) and the Detroit Tigers (930) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Spencer Turnbull. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-11-19 |
Reds v. Mariners UNDER 8 |
Top |
3-5 |
Push |
0 |
12 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (979) and the Seattle Mariners (980) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Marco Gonzales. THE SITUATION: Seattle (59-86) snapped a six-game losing streak last night with their 4-3 win over the Reds. Cincinnati (67-78) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 5 of the last 7 games Under the Total after a loss. And while Cincinnati has not scored more than four runs in each of their last three games, they have then played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total after failing to score more than four runs in at least three straight games — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total after failing to score more than four runs in three straight contests. The Reds have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is a decisive 34-16-1 in their last 51 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They give the ball to Gray who is 10-6 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The veteran right-hander has allowed only 12 combined earned runs over his last twelve starts. Gray has only allowed one earned run over his last two starts — and Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Gray pitching after not allowing more than one earned run in two straight starts. Gray has also been more effective on the road where he has a 2.58 ERA with an opponent’s batting average of .189 in thirteen starts as opposed to his 2.90 ERA with a .212 opponent’s batting average at home. The Reds have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total when his team is pitching as a favorite priced in the -100 to -150 range. He should thrive against this slumping Mariners lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with a .172 batting average, .241 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .564 over that span. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Mariners are hitting just .161 over their last five games — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not hitting better than .200 over their last five games. Furthermore, Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 4 games in Interleague play, the Mariners have played all 4 games Under the Total. They counter with Gonzales who is 14-11 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in thirty starts. The left-hander has been a bit better at home where he owns a 4.32 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in fourteen starts as compared to his 4.42 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .282 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Mariners have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Gonzales on the hill. He faces a Reds team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .234 batting average in those contests. Cincinnati has played 20 of their last 28 road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing at Seattle. Expect another lower scoring game. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (979) and the Seattle Mariners (980) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Marco Gonzales. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-10-19 |
Pirates v. Giants OVER 8.5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (909) and the San Francisco Giants (910) listing both starting pitchers Mitch Keller and Johnny Cueto. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (63-81) snapped a two-game losing streak yesterday with their 6-4 victory over the Giants in the opening game of this series. They scored four runs in the top of the 9th inning to pull out that win. San Francisco (69-75) has no lost two straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have seen the Over go 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after a win — and the Over is a decisive 41-18-4 in their last 63 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Pittsburgh has also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. They give the ball to Keller who is 1-3 with an 8.18 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP in eight starts this season. The 23-year old right-hander has shuttled back and forth between the majors and minors this season but the Pirates want to use these September games as an opportunity to audition for next year. He has done his best pitching at home in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park where he owns a 4.76 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .262 — but those numbers skyrocket in his four starts on the road where he has an 11.81 ERA with a 2.56 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .423. The Over is 3-0-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 4 games on the road with Keller on the hill. He faces a Giants team that has seen the Over go 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is 5-2-1 in San Francisco’s last 8 games after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Giants are slumping with their bats as of late as they have not scored more than those four runs last night in three straight games. San Francisco is also hitting just .193 over their last five games — but they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after hitting no better than .200 in their last five games. The Giants have also played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total after failing to score more than four runs in three straight contests. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-1 in San Francisco’s last 5 games at home — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Cueto who is making his season debut after recovering from Tommy John surgery which has kept him on the shelf for thirteen months. The 33-year old right-hander was 3-2 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in nine starts last year before suffering his elbow injury. The sabermetrics were not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.47 and 4.52 from his peripheral numbers. Cueto was not as effective at home either where he had a 5.19 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .333 in five starts as compared to his 1.33 ERA, 0.56 WHIP and .125 opponent’s batting average on the road. Those disparate home/road splits were consistent with his numbers two years ago with a deeper sample size as he had a 4.60 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .288 opponent’s batting average at home in twelve starts as compared to his 4.44 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. The Over is 19-5-2 in the Giants’ last 26 home games with Cueto on the hill. The Pirates have played 5 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 14-6-2 in their last 22 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 9-3-3 in the last 15 games between these two teams played in San Francisco’s AT&T Park. Expect a higher-scoring game tonight. 25* MLB National League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (909) and the San Francisco Giants (910) listing both starting pitchers Mitch Keller and Johnny Cueto. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-19 |
Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 |
|
16-24 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-0) also looks to better themselves this year after suffering a 6-10 record last season. Oakland (0-0) looks to improve from their 4-12 campaign last season.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos will bring a very good defense into Oakland tonight under first-year head coach Vic Fangio. The former Chicago defensive coordinator is one of the best defensive minds in the business — and Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay both claim that his coverage schemes are the most difficult to decipher. He inherits a defense with great potential after ranking 13th in the NFL by allowing only 21.8 PPG. Over their last three games, the Broncos held their opponents to just 286 total YPG with rookie Bradley Chubb playing very comfortably next to Von Miller at linebacker. Denver will need their defense to play well given that they scored only 13.0 PPG while averaging just 313.7 total YPG over their last three contests. The offense is also undergoing a system change with first-year offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello installing a run/play-action based attack. But the former 49ers’ quarterback coach’s highest experience of calling plays was at the FCS level so there may be some growing pains early on as he gets comfortable with new quarterback Joe Flacco. The hope of team president John Elway is that Flacco will offer the veteran leadership under center that he once did for this franchise which was then replicated with Peyton Manning leading the team a third Super Bowl championship. But Flacco has seen is adjusted net yards per passing attempt decline in each of his last four seasons which raises concerns that the 34-year old has seen a decline in his skills. His lack of mobility in the pocket is also at odds with where many offenses are moving in the modern NFL. Flacco will be working under a retooled offensive line that is replacing 36 starts from last year’s group. The hope is that offensive line coach Mike Munchak will coach this group up — but there are questions regarding the talent level of this unit with left tackle Garrett Bolles being a disappointment in his first two seasons and second-year center Connor McGovern coming off a disappointing rookie season. A slow start is likely for this team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 8 of their last 9 opening weeks to a new season Under the Total. The Under is also 4-0-1 in the Broncos’ last 5 games on the road. Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 opening games to a new season Under the Total. The Raiders also played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as the underdog. The big news for this team is that will not be playing this season with Antonio Brown as their best weapon on offense. Oakland also has issues on their offensive line tonight with both expected starters, Richie Incognito and Gabe Jackson unavailable to play: Jackson is dealing with an MCL injury while Incognito is serving a two-game suspension. That is not good news for an offense that failed to score at least 20 points nine times last year — and they averaged just 15.3 PPG along with 282.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Raiders have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total as an underdog. They also have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: Oakland has played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents — and these two teams have played 5 straight meetings Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-19 |
Texans v. Saints UNDER 53 |
Top |
28-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (479) and the New Orleans Saints (480). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-0) takes the field again after an 11-5 season that ended with a 21-7 loss at home to Indianapolis in the first round of the AFC playoffs. New Orleans (0-0) enter this season coming off a 13-3 campaign that ended in bitter disappointment with the no-call pass interference in the NFC Championship Game that eventually ended in a 26-23 loss in overtime to deny their opportunity to return to the Super Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints averaged 30.4 PPG last season which is one of the reasons that the Total is set in the 50s for this contest. But New Orleans closed out last season playing 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total. Over their last three games, the Saints scored only 19.0 PPG while averaging just 334.7 total YPG. It appeared that quarterback Drew Brees tired as the season moved on. But this is also a team that relied on their ground game to burn time off the clock to keep their defense fresh and off the field. This was a possession-based offense under head coach Sean Payton — and this will likely continue tonight with Deshaun Watson the opposing quarterback. It was not just the home stretch of the season where the Saints’ offense slowed down — they averaged only 19.6 PPG over their last seven contests. Another problem for this offense was that it became apparent that the team lacked a reliable third option after wide receiver Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara. The organization attempted to address that situation with the free-agent signing of tight end Jared Cook after his breakout season with the Raiders. Maybe — but Cook was the beneficiary of an offense that lacked significant threats at wide receiver (which is why Oakland signed Antonio Brown and Tyrel Williams at that position in the offseason). The conventional was once that this New Orleans offense thrived when playing on field turf — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on turf. The Saints have also played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Houston started slowly last season as they scored only 19.7 PPG in their first three games of the season. The Under is 8-3-1 in the Texans’ last 12 games in the month of September under head coach Bill O’Brien — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season. Houston also scored only 19.0 PPG over their final three games last season culminating in their disappointing effort at home against the Colts in the playoffs. The offense suffered a big blow with the injury to running back Lamar Miller. Acquiring Duke Johnson was helpful but his skills are more as a receiver than as a rusher — and the recently added Carlos Hyde has failed to stick with his previous three teams in the league. The Texans will lean on their defense that was tied for 4th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.8 PPG. This defense will still be good despite trading away Jadeveon Clowney as this move will allow the talented Whitney Mercilus to take over his role on the defense next to J.J. Watt.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total as the dog getting 3.5 to 7 points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (479) and the New Orleans Saints (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-08-19 |
Steelers v. Patriots UNDER 51.5 |
Top |
3-33 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) and the New England Patriots (478). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-0) looks to get back to the postseason after they were left on the outside looking in after a 9-6-1 campaign last year. New England (0-0) lifted the Lombardi Trophy once again last year with their 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots won the Super Bowl on the strength of their outstanding defense that limited the powerful Rams offense to just 260 total yards. This young unit is only getting better. New England held their last three opponents to only 295.0 total YPG. The Patriots’ defense was also very tough to move the ball against when playing at home in Gillette Stadium where they limited the visitors to only 17.9 PPG along with just 321.2 total YPG. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as the favorite laying 7 or fewer points. But don’t be surprised if the Patriots are not crisp on offense. Tom Brady is adjusting to a new philosophy after the retirement of tight end Rob Gronkowski. It has not been a smooth preseason for Brady in getting comfortable with his wide receivers. Demaryius Thomas has been injured along with rookie first-round draft pick N’Keal Harry. Josh Gordon has been cleared by the NFL to be eligible to play once again in the league but he did not take much part of training camp. And then the team signed Antonio Brown yesterday who will not be eligible to play tonight since the league deadline for rosters this week already passed. As it is, New England uses the first few weeks of the regular season to continue to install their offense — so this will very much be a work in progress. Expect the Patriots to rely on their power running game to keep the Steelers offense off the field (and that will keep the clock moving). New England has played 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new season Under the Total. Pittsburgh had an underrated defense last season that led the NFL with 52 sacks. The Steelers limited their home hosts to just 22.5 PPG last year along with only 325.0 total YPG — and they held their last three opponents to just 311.3 total YPG. This defense will improve with the addition of rookie first-round draft pick Devin Bush who provides them the ball-hawking linebacker they have lacked since the career-ending injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total — and this includes them playing 9 straight games on the road Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Pittsburgh has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against AFC rivals.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 16th in Pittsburgh where the Steelers pulled off a 17-10 upset win as a 2.5-point underdog. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) and the New England Patriots (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-08-19 |
Giants v. Cowboys OVER 44 |
|
17-35 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) enters the new season looking to improve on a 5-11 campaign last year. Dallas (0-0) has Super Bowl expectations after a 10-6 regular season before losing in Los Angeles to the Rams in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs by a 30-22 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys scored 24.4 PPG while averaging 365.2 total YPG last season. Much of those numbers were without the services of wide receiver Amari Cooper who they acquired midseason from the Raiders. The former Alabama star was just what the Dallas offense needed as it provided quarterback Dak Prescott a legitimate target who could still get open against the opposing teams best man-to-man defender. The Cowboys scored 27.3 PPG while averaging 369.0 total YPG in their last three games of the season. Cooper’s presence also forces opposing defenses to not play eight defenders in the box to slow down running back Ezekiel Elliott who is back with the team this week after being given his new contract despite two years remaining on his deal. The initial plan is for Elliott to play 20 to 25 snaps — and he should be effective since it is pretty seamless for running backs to get back into the flow of the offense even without much practice time. Dallas has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home. The Cowboys have also played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow opponents from the NFC East. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against NFC foes. The Giants offense will center around Saquon Barkley who was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year by rushing for 1307 yards while averaging 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The last time we saw the Cowboys run defense, they allowed the Rams (even with an injured Todd Gurley) to rush for 273 yards on 48 carries for a robust 5.69 Yards-Per-Carry average. While it would be foolish to read too much into preseason numbers, I am not ignoring how efficient the Giants’ offense was in the preseason with all four of their quarterbacks under center in the second year under offensive coordinator Mike Shula. New York led all teams in the preseason with nine touchdowns and 119 total points while averaging 305.5 passing YPG and 393 total YPG. Shula’s schemes were working — I do not expect this offense to suffer from the sluggishness that we saw on Thursday from both the Packers and the Bears after their offensive starters did not play much in the preseason. QB Eli Manning got plenty of reps in August after playing in the first three preseason games. While the hype around rookie Daniel Jones intensified, what has continued to go under the radar is the fine season Manning enjoyed last year where he completed 66% of his passes for 4299 passing yards with 21 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions in what was one of the best statistical seasons of his career. Golden Tate will not be available in this game given his PED suspension for the first four regular-season games but Sterling Shepard is listed as probable despite his thumb injury — and tight end Evan Engram is poised for a breakout season in his third year in the league. The Giants have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing in Dallas. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-07-19 |
Tulane v. Auburn UNDER 52 |
Top |
6-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). THE SITUATION: Tulane (1-0) enters this game looking to build off their 42-14 win over Florida International as a 3-point favorite back on August 29th. Auburn (1-0) eked out a 27-21 win over Oregon as a 4-point favorite last Saturday against Oregon.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Freshman quarterback Bo Nix was shaky in his collegiate debut — he completed only 13 of 31 passes for 177 yards. Head coach Gus Malzahn kept the playbook limited with his freshman with the team doing little to stretch the field against a Ducks defense that is certainly not elite. While I expect Nix to get more of the playbook tonight, it is telling that Malzahn did not feel comfortable in his quarterback to start airing the ball out — even when they were trailing for most of that game with Oregon. But perhaps that is because he had complete confidence in his defense that returned seven starters including an outstanding defensive line from a unit that ranked 14th in the nation last year by holding their opponents to just 19.2 PPG. The Tigers held the Ducks with their Heisman Trophy candidate in quarterback Justin Herbert to just 332 yards of offense in that victory. Moving forward, Auburn has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Now the Tigers return home from that game played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total. Auburn has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September after last week’s game fell below the 55.5 point Total. Furthermore, the Under is 18-7-2 in the Tigers’ last 27 games against teams outside the SEC — and the Under is 20-8-1 in their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. Tulane has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with eight days of rest and preparation. The Green Wave generated 545 yards of offense against the Golden Panthers under senior quarterback Justin McMillan. Tulane has then played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. The Green Wave gained 350 of those yards on the ground as they flexed their muscles in controlling the line of scrimmage — and this will likely be the strategy in pulling this upset. Tulane plays at a fast tempo under new offensive coordinator Will Hall — but running the football still shortens the game with the clock continually moving. The Green Wave have played 5 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. Tulane has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Tulane has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams outside the American Athletic Conference — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams from the SEC. 25* CFB ESPN2 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-05-19 |
Packers v. Bears OVER 46 |
|
10-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (451) and the Chicago Bears (452). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) looks to improve on a disappointing 6-9-1 campaign last year. Chicago (0-0) enters the new season looking to build off their 12-5 season that culminated in their heartbreaking 16-15 loss in the NFC Wildcard playoff game at home in Soldier Field against Philadelphia where a missed field goal that hit the uprights cost them the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It may be surprising to some that the oddsmakers have installed the Over/Under for this game to begin at 46 (or higher) in most locations. The Bears only had three games all of last season where the Total was set at 46 or higher. Chicago led the NFL last year by allowing just 17.7 PPG. The DVOA metric used by Football Outsiders to measure defensive efficiency ranks that Bears’ defense last season as one of the ten best ever since 1998. And while there are good reasons to be bullish on the defense again this year with Khalil Mack taking part in a full offseason, negative regression remains highly likely. Historically dominant defenses more often than not find it difficult to maintain that uber-elite level of play. Chicago ended opposing drives with an interception in 14.8% of their drives which was not only the best mark in the NFL but the highest mark in the last four seasons. This defense is simply not likely to kill as many drives with interceptions this year. This defense suffered four big losses in the offseason. The first two were with their coaching staff with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio taking the head coaching job in Denver with him taking defensive backs coach Ed Donatell with him. Donatell is an outstanding skills development coach. Sean McVay considers the Fangio defenses the most difficult to scheme against given the sophisticated ways he disguises his coverages. Remember, Fangio was the defensive architect for those outstanding 49ers defenses in the Jim Harbaugh era. Chuck Pagano takes over as defensive coordinator — and while he had good defenses in his tenure as the coordinator in Baltimore, only one of his six defenses in his tenure at Indianapolis ranked in the top half of the NFL. Chicago also lost two good players in their secondary in strong safety Adrian Ames and nickel back Bryce Callahan. Ames was the best tackler in their secondary while Callahan provided elite slot coverage skills. Replacements Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Buster Skrine are serviceable but still downgrades in talent. On offense, second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky did his best work at home where he led an offense that scored 26.7 PPG while averaging 365.7 YPG which was over +20 net YPG above their season average. Trubisky enjoyed an encouraging sophomore campaign in the league where he made significant strides after a shaky rookie campaign under NFL Coach of the Year Matt Nagy. Over his last four regular-season games, Trubisky averaged a nice Passer Rating of 102.4. He should have success against this Packers defense that Football Outsiders ranked as fourth-worst in the NFL last year with their metrics. This unit did add Ames from the Bears via free agency to bolster their secondary — but this group has also seen attrition with them cutting veteran defensive lineman Mike Daniels and then losing starting linebacker Oren Burks to a pectoral injury. Green Bay drafted Rashan Gary as the 13th pick in the first round of the NFL draft — but he struggled in training camp while adapting to a new position at outside linebacker which is a strange way to deploy a player who was at best at Michigan when playing defensive tackle. The Packers allowed their home hosts to score 29.4 PPG last year while averaging 374 total YPG. But the Green Bay offense should see significant improvement in an updated offense of rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Rodgers has a down year last season while clearly fed up with previous head coach Mike McCarthy. But don’t underestimate the negative impact of the knee injury he sustained early in the season. With a chip on his shoulder in the aftermath of the McCarthy dismissal, Rodgers looked poised for a big bounce-back season. The Packers averaged 383 YPG on the road last year which was over 10 YPG more than what they averaged at home in Lambeau Field. Green Bay has played a decisive 37 of their last 55 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Packers have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total as an underdog getting no more than 3 points. Additionally, Green Bay has played 11 of their last 14 games over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Packers have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total in the month of September — and this included them playing seven of their last 8 opening weeks to a new season Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Despite being slowed with that bum knee last year, Rodgers was careful with the football as he only threw two interceptions. His sound decision making helps explain why these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 meetings in Chicago Over the Total. 25* NFL NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (451) and the Chicago Bears (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-04-19 |
Mets v. Nationals OVER 10 |
|
8-4 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (901) and the Washington Nationals (902) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Anibal Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Washington (78-59) rallied from a 10-4 deficit in the bottom of the 9th inning last night to pull out an 11-10 victory over the Mets. New York (70-68) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets have played 29 of their last 44 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed at least five earned runs — and this includes them playing eleven of these last fifteen situations Over the Total. Additionally, New York has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after scoring at least 10 runs in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a game where at least 20 combined runs were scored. They give the ball to Wheeler who is 9-7 with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in twenty-six starts this season. The right-hander comes off a strong outing against the Phillies where he allowed just one earned run in 6 innings of work — but the Mets have played 26 of their last 38 games Over the Total with Wheeler coming off a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. Wheeler does see his WHIP rise to a 1.38 mark on the road due to an opponent’s batting average of .279 in fourteen starts. New York has seen the Over go 6-2-2 in their last 10 road games with Wheeler making the start. Wheeler also has a 5.27 ERA in twelve daytime starts. The Mets have also played 4 straight games Over the Total with Wheeler facing the Nationals. In his career, Wheeler is 4-10 with a 5.17 ERA in seventeen starts against Washington — and he is 0-2 with an ugly 7.94 ERA in four starts against them this season. He faces a hot lineup that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .272 batting average and a .837 OPS during that span. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 4-1-1 in Washington’s last 6 home games — and they have played 11 of their last 15 home games with the Total set at 10 or higher. The Over is also 5-0-2 in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Sanchez who is 8-6 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The sabermetrics are troubling for the veteran right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.25 and 5.06 moving forward. Sanchez has not been as effective at home where he owns a 4.23 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .254 in twelve starts. The Nationals have played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with Sanchez pitching wit the Total set at 10 to 10.5. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .276 batting average along with a .338 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .818. The Over is also 7-2-1 in New York’s last 10 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Expect a high scoring afternoon affair. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (901) and the Washington Nationals (902) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Anibal Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-03-19 |
Storm v. Mercury UNDER 152.5 |
Top |
82-70 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Storm (649) and the Phoenix Mercury (650). THE SITUATION: Seattle (16-15) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 92-75 win over Atlanta as an 8.5-point favorite. Phoenix (15-16) saw their two-game losing streak snapped on Sunday with their embarrassing 105-78 loss at Chicago as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Seattle has played 14 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 10 points. The Under is also 13-3-1 in the Storm’s last 17 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 9 games after scoring at least 80 points, Seattle has played all 9 games Under the Total. The reigning WNBA champions made 58.5% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting effort in their last twenty-six games. Regression on the offensive end of the court tonight is very likely as the Storm rank 9th in the twelve-team league in Offensive Efficiency — and they are 10th in the WNBA in Offensive Efficiency over their last ten games. Seattle goes back on the road where they are making just 41.8% of their shots. The Under is 12-5-1 in the Storm’s last 18 games on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the number set at 150 or higher. Seattle has also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Phoenix will be focused on playing better on the defensive end of the court after allowing Chicago to make 50.6% of their shots in what was the worst defensive performance in their last twelve games. The Mercury have played 30 of their last 41 home games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 50% of their shots. Phoenix has also played 8 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. The Mercury return home where they limit their opponents to just 41.2% shooting from the field — and they have still held their last five opponents to just 40.3% shooting while ranking 5th best in the league in Defensive Efficiency during that span. Additionally, Phoenix has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Mercury have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle and Phoenix remain in 7th and 8th place in the standings to determine the eight playoffs teams later this month — so this contest matters significantly to both teams. The Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams — and these two teams have played 8 of their last 11 meetings in Phoenix Under the Total. 25* WNBA ESPN2 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Storm (649) and the Phoenix Mercury (650). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-03-19 |
Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (977) and the Milwaukee Brewers (978) listing both starting pitchers Dereck Rodriguez and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (77-60) has won four of their last five games as well as ten of their last twelve contests with their 3-1 victory over the Giants yesterday. San Francisco (66-71) has lost six of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win. St. Louis has also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. And while the Cardinals have not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have then played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after they did not score more than four runs in at least three straight games. St. Louis has played a decisive 31 of their last 44 games at home Under the Total — and this includes them playing nine of their last ten home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Flaherty who is 8-7 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in twenty-seven starts. The right-hander has been outstanding since the All-Star break with a 0.98 ERA in 55 1/3 innings of work after going 4-1 in the month of August where he enjoyed a 0.71 ERA while striking out 47 batters in 38 innings. Flaherty comes off a strong outing where he allowed only two earned runs in 6 innings of work at Milwaukee — and the Under is 15-5-1 in the Cardinals’ last 21 games with Flaherty looking to follow up a Quality Start. Flaherty has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.67 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .181 in thirteen starts. St. Louis has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with Flaherty on the hill. He faces a slumping Giants lineup that is scoring just 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .233 batting average, .267 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .629. The Under is also 5-2-1 in San Francisco’s last 8 games when facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or higher. The Under is 12-4-2 in the Giants’ last 18 games after a loss — and the Under is 6-2-1 in the Giants’ last 9 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. San Francisco has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Giants have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog priced at +200 or higher. They counter with Rodriguez who is 5-7 with a 5.49 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 80 1/3 innings of work. Rodriguez has been a disaster at home in AT&T Park where he has been saddled with a 6.27 ERA along with a 1.58 WHIP — but in his 47 1/3 innings on the road, the right-hander has a 4.94 ERA along with a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .255. The Under is 13-6-1 in San Francisco’s last 20 games with Rodriguez facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Cardinals offense that is not tearing the cover off the ball right now: they are scoring only 4.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .247 batting average along with a .308 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .713.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 36-16-2 in the Cardinals last 54 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (977) and the Milwaukee Brewers (978) listing both starting pitchers Dereck Rodriguez and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-02-19 |
Notre Dame v. Louisville OVER 54.5 |
Top |
35-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217) and the Louisville Cardinals (218). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns thirteen starters from the team that lost to Clemson in the National Semifinals by a 30-3 score. Louisville (0-0) has sixteen starters back from last year’s dumpster fire that limped to a 2-10 season record.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Irish return seven starters with an offense that might be the most potent in head coach Brian Kelly’s ten years with the program. Kelly’s decision to elevate Ian Book to be his starting quarterback despite a 3-0 start to the season was inspired as the team averaged 36.6 PPG in his eight starts. The move to Book gave the Notre Dame offense a legitimate passing threat that they have not had in years to balance their strong rushing attack. Book threw at least two touchdown passes in all eight of his regular-season starts. While the Irish are dealing with injuries to junior wide receiver Michael Young and junior tight end Cole Kmet, the Irish have depth at the running back and wide receiver skill positions. The offense also has the benefit of four returning starters on offense. However, the Notre Dame defense is likely to take a step or two back with the loss of three key members of last year’s unit that have moved on to the NFL. The middle of the defense appears vulnerable with the Irish replacing two good defensive tackles along with two good linebackers — that level of the defense is now inexperienced and lacking in depth. And while Notre Dame has two great safeties in seniors Jalen Elliott and Alohi Gilman, it will be tough to replace the elite cover cornerback Julian Love who bypassed his senior year to go to the NFL. The Fighting Irish have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when laying 14.5 to 21 points. Notre Dame has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 56 point range — and this includes them playing four of their last five games on the road Over the Total with the number set in that range. Louisville cannot help but be better on defense this season after they ranked 122nd in the nation by allowing 483.6 total YPG. While ten starters return from that group, new head coach Scott Satterfield and his defensive coordinator at Appalachian State, Bryan Brown, have a major rebuilding task to clean up the hot mess that Bobby Petrino left behind after being fired late in the season. The Cardinals surrendered at least 52 points in each of their last five games — so it will likely be a long road back for this group. Louisville’s improvement should happen faster on the offensive side of the football under Satterfield who emphasized more running in the spread offensive attacks as the head coach at Appalachian State. Satterfield has tapped junior quarterback Jawon Pass to be his starter with a simplified playbook from the 2007 NFL playbook Petrino was still relying on from his year with the Atlanta Falcons. Satterfield will likely also give reps to Malik Cunningham who led the team in rushing last year and can better execute the rushing attack under center. The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Louisville has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog — and this includes them playing four of their last five home games Over the Total as the dog. And in their last 22 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points, the Cardinals have played 14 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Louisville averaged just 19.8 PPG last year (tied for 121s in the nation) while Notre Dame surrendered just 18.2 PPG (13th in the nation). Look for the Cardinals to score at least 20 points tonight with their offense improved and the Irish defense losing three players to the NFL. With the Irish a favorite approaching 20 points, Louisville scoring 20 points should put this game way Over the number given the number the Notre Dame is likely to put up in this game. 25* CFB ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217) and the Louisville Cardinals (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-01-19 |
Houston v. Oklahoma UNDER 81 |
Top |
31-49 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (215) and the Oklahoma Sooners (216). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-0) returns twelve starters from a team that finished 8-5 after suffering a humiliating 70-14 loss to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. Oklahoma (0-0) has twelve starters back from the group that lost to Alabama in the College Football Playoff Semifinals by a 45-34 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sooners led the nation last year by averaging 48.4 PPG along with generating 570.3 total YPG. After seeing their offense improve their numbers in each of the last four seasons, the Regression Gods were likely to make a visit to Norman this year. But with Jalen Hurts the new starting quarterback for this team after his transfer from Alabama. Hurts has outstanding leadership skills as he led (the uber-talented) Crimson Tide to a 24-2 record as a starter. But Hurts does not have the same talent as Tua Tagovailoa nor Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray who have been the two Heisman Trophy winners that Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley has had at his disposal over the last two years. In four playoff game appearances, Hurts completed just 43% of his passes for the Tide while averaging just 3.7 Yards-Per-Attempt. There is a reason he was benched at halftime of the 2017 National Championship game against Georgia. The Sooners are also almost completely rebuilding their offensive line with four starters from last year departed to play in the NFL. Mayfield had the benefit of five returning starters on the offensive line two years with Murray having three returning starters last year. Hurts is not getting the same good opening hand as his two predecessors at Oklahoma. Even if the Sooners just reach their 48.4 PPG scoring mark from last year in this game, the Under should still be in pretty good shape with them being 23 or so point favorites against the Cougars. Of course, the Oklahoma defense was a mess last year as they ranked last in the Big 12 by allowing 33.3 PPG along with 453.8 total YPG. This unit can probably not help but improve under new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch who oversaw a very good defense in a previous stint at Washington State. Grinch has installed a new “positionless” scheme that emphasizes aggressiveness and play-making. This may be a better fit than the staler ideas of previous coordinate Mike Stoops. The Sooners’ secondary should be better with three juniors returning as starters who have received a baptism by fire last year. Houston will be installing a new offensive Air Raid scheme under new head coach Dana Holgorsen. The Cougars are happy to have a fully-healthy D’Eriq King back under center after he suffered a season-ending injury in mid-November. But this is an offense that Oklahoma is very familiar with given its deployment by many of the teams in the Big 12. Houston also had defensive issues last season after allowing 37.2 PPG along with 496.4 total YPG. That unit was ravaged by injuries — they allowed a more manageable 28.0 PPG in their first six games before their depleted unit surrendered 45.0 PPG in their final seven games. This defense will have something to prove after their embarrassing effort against Army in their bowl game where the team had checked out on head coach Major Applewhite. Holgorsen has proclaimed that playing good defense is a “high priority” for him — he has hired a good defensive coordinator in Joe Cauthen whose attacking style running the defense at Arkansas State led to 146 sacks over the last four seasons. Holgorsen has added six junior college transfers to improve the talent of this group led by cornerback Damarion Williams who was a junior college All-American last year. The Cougars have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in the first half of the regular season. Houston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams from the Big 12.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total eclipsing the 80 point mark in some spots, it will take a high level of offensive production of both teams to reach the Over. Don’t be surprised if both of these potent offenses make some execution mistakes in this opening game. This logic helps to inform a historical angle supporting the Under that has been 75% effective since 1992. In games in the first two weeks of the season with the Total set at 63 or higher between two teams from major 1-A conferences, when at least one of the teams returns a starting quarterback from the previous season, the game finished Under the Total in 40 of these last 53 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (215) and the Oklahoma Sooners (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-31-19 |
Ball State v. Indiana UNDER 61.5 |
Top |
24-34 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (169) and the Indiana Hoosiers (170). THE SITUATION: Ball State (0-0) returns seventeen starters from their team that finished 4-8 last season. Indiana (0-0) returns fourteen starters from last year’s 5-7 team. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals were hit hard by transfers in the offseason with six players leaving the program. The offense lost two incumbent starters from last year in senior quarterback Riley Neal who transferred to Vanderbilt and senior running back James Gilbert who moved to Kansas State. There is an argument to be had that perhaps both these players were going to lose their jobs this season. On the other hand, Neal had started 32 games for Ball State while throwing for 7393 yards and 46 touchdown passes while Gilbert rushed for 2806 yards in his career with the program — and that was good enough to entice two football programs in Power Five conferences. Ball State was just 102nd in the FBS last year by scoring just 4.2 points per trip inside the 40-yard line. Any improvements on offense will likely not materialize right away. As it is, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. I do expect to see significant improvements from the Ball State defense that returns nine starters. This is the second year for this unit playing in a 3-4 formation. This move worked for the first seven games last year under defensive coordinator David Elson as they hold those first seven opponents to just 23.9 PPG. But injuries eventually took their toll as the Cardinals allowed their last five opponents to score 44.4 PPG as their lack of depth was exposed. Back at full health and with better depth from the experiences from last season, Ball State should be much improved in the second year playing in the 3-4 look. They return seventeen players who registered at teals ten tackles last year. The Cardinals have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the Mid-American Conference — and they have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against Big Ten foes. Ball State has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Indiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. The Hoosiers defense regressed last year with only three returning starters — they allowed 423.8 total YPG which was 83.7 YPG more than what they surrendered in 2017 when they ranked 27th in the nation in total defense. Don’t be surprised if this unit approaches those strong defensive numbers from two years ago with seven starters back along with eight of their top eleven tacklers from last year. Tom Allen feels confident enough with this group that he promoted linebackers coach Kane Wommack to defensive coordinator to free up his time focus exclusively with his head coaching duties. Allen has already made a big move by tapping redshirt freshman Michael Penix as the starting quarterback to replace returning starter Peyton Ramsey. Penix has a better runner with a stronger arm — but with this team playing in a new system under first-year offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer, it might take some time for this unit to gel. The Hoosiers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They also have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana won last year’s rivalry game between these two schools by a 38-10 score with that result falling well short of the 62.5 point Total. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (169) and the Indiana Hoosiers (170). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-19 |
Padres v. Giants UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
3-8 |
Loss |
-107 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (963) and the San Francisco Giants (964) listing both starting pitchers Dinelson Lamet and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: San Diego (62-71) won the opening game of this series last night by a 5-3 score. San Francisco (65-68) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Padres have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win. Additionally, the Under is 4-0-1 in San Diego’s last 5 games on the road against teams with a losing record. And in their last 25 road games in the season half of the season, the Padres have played 19 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Lamet who is 2-2 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has seen the velocity on his fastball approach 96 miles per hour which has helped him generate swinging strikes in 13.8% of his pitches. The sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.01 and 3.84 moving forward based off his deeper peripheral numbers. Over his last seven starts, Lamet has a 2-0 record with a 3.75 ERA. He also has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.12 ERA along with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in five starts. San Diego has played 3 of their last 4 road games Under the Total with Lamet pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range. He faces a Giants team that scores only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .228 batting average along with a .289 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .651. The Under is 7-2-1 in the Giants’ last 10 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is also 13-5-1 in San Francisco’s last 19 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Furthermore, the Under is 13-3-2 in the Giants’ last 18 games after a loss. The Under is also 15-6-3 in San Fran’s last 24 home games against teams with a losing record. And in the Giants’ last 10 games when favored in the -125 to -175 price range, they have played 7 of these games Under the Total. They counter with Bumgarner who is 8-8 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The lefty has been on fire over his last twelve starts as he enjoys a 5-1 record with a 2.96 ERA over that span. The veteran also loves facing the Padres against which he sports a 3.47 ERA in 35 games (34 starts). Bumgarner has been much better at home where he owns a 2.95 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in fifteen starts. The Under is 5-1-2 in San Francisco’s last 8 home games with Bumgarner facing a team with a losing record. The Giants have also played 12 of their last 14 home games with Bumgarner facing a fellow NL West foe. The Padres are scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .185 batting average along with a .255 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .573.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego has played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (963) and the San Francisco Giants (964) listing both starting pitchers Dinelson Lamet and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-29-19 |
Dolphins v. Saints UNDER 37 |
Top |
16-13 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (125) and the New Orleans Saints (126). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-1) concludes their preseason coming off a 22-7 win over Jacksonville as a pick ‘em last Thursday. New Orleans (2-1) comes off a 28-13 win in New York against the Jets as a 3-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins have played 13 of their last 20 preseason games Under the Total after an upset win in the previous week of the preseason — and they have also played three of their last four preseason games Under the Total after an upset victory by at least 10 points in the previous week. Miami has also played 28 of their last 44 preseason games Under the Total after a point spread cover in the previous week in the preseason. In theory, the Dolphins still have a battle to determine their starting quarterback with rookie head coach Brian Flores yet to name his starter for next week. With a difficult early schedule, I suspect Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the initial starter — yet he will not be playing tonight due to an illness. Josh Rosen will get the start and I expect him to the be starter for this team by midseason. But look for the majority of the snaps tonight to go to fourth-year veteran Jake Rudock who has played in only three regular-season games in his career. The former Michigan QB did not play last week. The Dolphins defense has played this preseason after holding the Jaguars to just 243 yards last week. Miami has held their three preseason opponents to just 16.7 PPG along with only 296.3 total YPG. Additionally, the Dolphins have played 12 of their last 19 preseason games Under the Total after winning two of their last three preseason games. New Orleans held the Jets to just 300 yards of offense in a very nice defensive effort last week. QB Drew Brees will not play in this game — and with veteran Teddy Bridgewater and third-year pro Taysom Hill playing well this preseason, there is little for the offense to prove this week after averaging 24.0 PPG along with 355.3 total YPG in their three preseason games. The Saints have played 8 of their last 9 preseason games Under the Total under head coach Sean Payton when playing a team with a winning record in the preseason. And while the Dolphins are outscoring their preseason opponents by +6.7 PPG, New Orleans has played all 5 of these preseason games Under the Total. The Saints return back home to the Superdome after playing their last two preseason games on the road. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 8 preseason games at home Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total in the preseason with the number set in the 35.5 to 38 point range. Furthermore, the Saints have played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total after playing their last two preseason games on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 24 preseason games Under the Total when playing with no more than six days between preseason contests.
FINAL TAKE: With both of these teams having little to determine tonight on the offensive side of the football, it should be a whole lotta vanilla from both groups with avoiding injuries being the clear top agenda item. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (125) and the New Orleans Saints (126). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-29-19 |
Giants v. Patriots OVER 34.5 |
|
31-29 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (113) and the New England Patriots (114). THE SITUATION: New York (3-0) remained undefeated in the preseason with their 25-23 upset victory in Cincinnati over the Bengals last week as a 3-point underdog last Thursday. New England (3-0) is also unbeaten this preseason after they defeated Carolina last Thursday by a 10-3 score as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants offense has looked very good under head coach Mike Shula this preseason. New York has scored 29.3 PPG in their three exhibition games while averaging 382.7 total YPG. Incumbent starting quarterback Eli Manning has played well and will get tonight off to prepare for the regular season. This will give rookie QB Daniel Jones the opportunity to make his first professional start. The former Duke quarterback has been outstanding this preseason as he has completed 25 of his 30 passes for 369 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has validated the Giants’ faith in him to draft him 6th in the first round of the NFL draft as he has completed 83% of his passes. Furthermore, Jones leads all quarterbacks in the preseason with a minimum of six attempts by averaging 12.3 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt — and he is 2nd in the NFL with a 140.1 Passer Raging. Second-year pro Kyle Lauletta has also played well in this preseason in the Shula system — he has completed 15 of 22 passes for 206 yards with two touchdown passes and a 90.1 Passer Rating. He will likely take the majority of snaps tonight with him potentially on the trading block with Jones being their future QB. The Giants defense looked vulnerable last week by allowing the Bengals to gain 354 yards last week. The Giants have played 4 of their last 6 preseason games Over the Total as the underdog — and they have also played 3 of their last 4 preseason games Under the Total on the road getting no more than 7 points. New York has also played 3 of their last 4 preseason games Over the Total when coming off a preseason game played on a Thursday night. New England has averaged 21.0 PPG this preseason despite averaging a gaudy 379.3 total YPG in their three exhibition games. The Patriots have played 11 of their last 15 preseason games Over the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in the previous week in the preseason. Head coach Bill Belichick seems to have found yet another diamond in the rough in the NFL draft in Jarrett Stidham. The former Baylor and Auburn signal-caller has completed 43 of 62 passes this preseason for 506 yards with three touchdown passes (one each in each preseason game) and zero interceptions. With Jimmy Garoppolo and now Jacoby Brissett starting quarterbacks next week, this Patriots system has produced two current starting quarterbacks from their past QB depth charts. Tom Brady’s likely backup remains the veteran Brian Hoyer who has 37 starts along with 65 appearances in regular-season games in his career. Hoyer did not play last week with Brady getting in his lone preseason time this month — but he has completed 18 of his 22 passes for 202 yards with two TD passes. The Patriots have played 10 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 32.5 to 35 point range. New England has also played 12 of their last 16 home games when laying no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: With Unders dominating the results in the last two weeks of the preseason, plenty of the Totals numbers have been at 35 or even lower. But in this game featuring good backup quarterbacks operating efficiently in good offenses, expect a higher scoring game. 10* NFLx Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (113) and the New England Patriots (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-19 |
Steelers v. Titans UNDER 40.5 |
Top |
18-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (281) and the Tennessee Titans (282). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-0) is undefeated so far this preseason after their 17-7 victory over Kansas City as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Tennessee (1-1) looks to rebound from their 22-17 loss at home to New England in a game that closed with them being a pick ‘em.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset victory in the preseason. The Pittsburgh defense held the potent Chiefs offense to just 315 yards of offense in that game — and Patrick Mahomes did start that game. The Steelers have held their first two preseason opponents to just 17.5 PPG. Ben Roethlisberger will make his preseason debut in this game — but he is unlikely to play the first half as he has done in the past in previous dress rehearsal games in the third week of the preseason. Pittsburgh has played 17 of their last 24 preseason games Under the Total as the underdog under head coach Mike Tomlin. The Steelers have also played 7 of their last 11 road preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 3 preseason games against fellow AFC opponents, Pittsburgh has played all 3 of these games Under the Total. Tennessee only managed 306 yards of offense in their loss to the Patriots last week. The Titans did allow New England to gain 363 yards in that contest with the Patriots averaging 6.2 Yards-Per-Play — so better play on that side of the football will likely be a priority for head coach Mike Vrabel. Tennessee has played 10 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in their last preseason game in the previous week. The Titans defense is still allowing just 16.0 PPG this preseason along with only 295.0 total YPG. They host this game where they have played 23 of their last 38 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is also supported by a preseason-specific angle that has been 66% effective over the last five seasons. In preseason games involving a team coming off an upset win the previous week in the preseason (Pittsburgh) who have a winning record in the preseason, these games finished Under the Total in 47 of the last 71 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFLx Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (281) and the Tennessee Titans (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-19 |
Texans v. Cowboys UNDER 40.5 |
Top |
0-34 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-1) won their first exhibition game in the preseason with their 30-23 win over Detroit as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Dallas (1-1) also earned their first victory in the preseason with a 14-10 win on the road in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans saw a high scoring game last week with 53 combined points being scored — but one of those touchdowns came from them allowing a 19-yard fumble recovery that the Lions returned for a touchdown. Houston has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with six days of rest preseason games under head coach Bill O’Brien. O’Brien pulled his offensive starters after they had a successful opening drive against the Detroit defense. Quarterback Deshaun Watson completed 5 of 7 passes for 60 yards. But Watson has a history of injury — so O’Brien will likely have a quick hook with his offense after he is satisfied with their execution tonight. The Texans have a solid backup in Joe Webb — but their third-stringer, Jordan Ta’Amu, has only thrown one pass in the preseason as a rookie out of Ole Miss. Houston has played 7 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total when playing on field turf under O’Brien. Additionally, the Texans have played 8 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total when favored under O’Brien. Dallas has only scored 11.5 PPG in their two preseason games while averaging just 272.5 total YPG in those contests. This is par for the course for head coach Jason Garrett. The Cowboys averaged only 10.7 PPG while generating just 280.5 total YPG in their four preseason games last year. QB Dak Prescott has thrown only nine passes this preseason. And with running back Ezekiel Elliott still holding out, the Cowboys are not likely to put their promising rookie running back Tony Pollard on the field much for this game. Dallas has played 3 of their last 4 preseason games Under the Total after scoring no more than 17 points in two straight games. The backup QB situation for Dallas is not one of the better situations in the league. Cooper Rush has looked solid this preseason — but the third-year pro out of Central Michigan has only played in three regular-season games without a start. The third-stringer is likely to be Mike White — the second-year QB has completed only 16 of 33 passes for 117 yards in this preseason.
FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 14 of their last 23 preseason games in the Garrett era Under the Total with the number set int he 35.5 to 42 point range. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFLx NFL Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-19 |
Royals v. Indians UNDER 9 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (915) and the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers Jakob Junis and Zach Plesac. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (45-83) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 8-1 loss in Baltimore against the Orioles. Cleveland (74-54) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 2-0 loss in New York to the Mets.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Royals have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss. Additionally, Kansas City has lost 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last contest. The Royals have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an off day. And in their last 7 games on the road, Kansas City has played 5 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Junis who is 8-11 with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The right-hander will be looking to complete at least 6 innings of work for the ninth straight start tonight. Junis has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.89 ERA along with a 1.33 WHIP and .260 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as opposed to his 5.53 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and .275 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. The Royals have played 4 straight road games Under the Total with Junis pitching against teams with a winning record. Kansas City has also played 22 of their last 33 games with Junis pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces an Indians team that is scoring only 4.4 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .244 batting average along with a .310 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .728. Cleveland has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss by two runs or less — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. The Indians return home to Progressive Field for the first time since August 14th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after being on the road for at least seven days. Cleveland has also played 19 of their last 25 home games Under the Total when favored in the -125 to -175 price range. They counter with Plesac who is 6-4 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has done his best pitching at home where he has a 3.25 ERA along with a 1.17 WHIP in eight starts as compared to his 3.86 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the road. The Indians have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Plesac pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -110 to -150 range. He should have success facing this Royals team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with a .214 batting average along with a .264 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .550 during that span. Kansas City has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams since July 28th when the Royals upset the Indians at home by a 9-6 score despite being a +160 priced underdog. Cleveland has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Cleveland. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (915) and the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers Jakob Junis and Zach Plesac. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-22-19 |
Redskins v. Falcons UNDER 41.5 |
Top |
19-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (253) and the Atlanta Falcons (254). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-2) remained winless this preseason with their 25-13 upset loss at home to Cincinnati as a 2.5-point favorite last Thursday. Atlanta (0-3) lost their third straight game this preseason with their 22-10 upset loss at home to the New York Jets as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While the Skins’ game with the Bengals finished Under the Total with 36 combined points, two touchdowns were scored by a pick-six by Washington along with a 75-yard punt return by Cincinnati. The Skins managed only 212 yards of offense against the Bengals — and they have averaged a mere 241.5 total YPG this preseason despite having one of the few legitimate quarterback battles to determine their starter this preseason. The Washington defense did play better this week as they limited Cincinnati to just 335 yards. The Skins have played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total under head coach Jay Gruden after a straight-up loss in the preseason — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after a point spread defeat in the preseason in the Gruden era. Additionally, Washington has played 9 of their last 10 preseason games Under the Total under Gruden when playing with six days or less of rest. The Skins have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the preseason as the favorite — and they have played 12 of their last 19 preseason games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total under Gruden. Atlanta has now lost eleven preseason games under head coach Dan Quinn. After averaging just 6.7 PPG in their four preseason games last year, the Falcons are scoring only somewhat better this season with their 15.7 PPG clip. Don’t blame Atlanta not using their starting quarterback Matt Ryan either as he played well into the second quarter last week while completing 10 of his 14 passes for 118 yards. The Falcons have then played 8 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after a straight-up loss in the preseason — and they have played 8 of their last 10 preseason games Under the Total after a point spread preseason loss in the Quinn era. Further, Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after suffering two straight preseason losses — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after losing three straight games against the spread in the preseason. The Falcons defense has been stout this preseason as they are allowing only 249.3 total YPG. They have not allowed more than 96 rushing yards this preseason — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in at least two straight preseason contests. Atlanta has also played 6 straight preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Falcons have played 7 straight preseason games Under the Total in expected close preseason games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in the Skins last 6 preseason games against fellow NFC opponents, the game finished Under the Total all 6 times. 25* NFLx NFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (253) and the Atlanta Falcons (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-21-19 |
Marlins v. Braves OVER 9.5 |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-102 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Caleb Smith and Julio Teheran. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (75-62) has won three straight games with their 5-1 victory over the Marlins last night. Miami (45-79) has lost four straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a victory by at least four runs. The Over is also 6-2-2 in their last 10 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while Atlanta has not allowed more than three runs in three straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in their last game. Furthermore, while the Braves have played three straight games Over the Total, they have then played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. They give the ball to Teheran who is 7-8 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in twenty-six starts this season. The sabermetrics are screaming that Teheran is high on the list of regression candidates for the rest of the season relative to those baseline numbers. Opposing hitters are generating a Hard-Hit Rate of 38.9% which is the highest in his career. The right-hander then adds to many walks to this volatile situation — he issues a base-on-balls to 11.0% of the batters he faces while averaging 4.29 walks per 9 innings of work. Unfortunately for Teheran, he is not much of a strikeout pitcher to help him get out of jams — he only strikes out 21.3% of the batters he faces. He also does not induce ground balls as only 39.8% of the batted balls he allows into play are grounders. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.13 and 5.27 moving forward based on his peripheral numbers like this. Teheran is not quite as effective a home either where he has a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in twelve starts as compared to his 1.26 WHIP and .221 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road. Atlanta has played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with Teheran on the hill — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Teheran facing a team with a losing record. The Braves have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Teheran facing the Marlins. The Over is 10-3-2 in Miami’s last 15 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 10-3-2 in the Marlins’ last 15 games after a loss — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games after a loss to a divisional rival where they scored just one run. The Over is also 6-0-2 in Miami’s last 8 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Marlins have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the month of August — and the Over is 6-1-2 in Miami’s last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Smith who is 8-6 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in twenty starts. The lefty has a concerning Hard-Hit rate of 41.7% that is a bit more manageable when pitching in the spacious Marlins Park for his home games. Smith has a 3.32 ERA in ten starts at home — but those numbers rise to a 3.95 ERA when he is on the road. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.08 and 4.34 moving forward. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Smith pitching on five days of rest — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 5 games with Smith facing a team with a winning record. After throwing 106 pitches in his last game (which only got him through 5 innings), the Marlins will be keeping a short lease on their young hurler as they build for the future. Expect the Miami bullpen to get plenty of action in this game with their 5.15 ERA and 1.46 WHIP this season — and that group has a 12.34 ERA with a 2.49 WHIP in their last seven games. Atlanta hits left-handed pitching hard — they average 5.6 Runs-Per-Game with a .812 OPS against left-handed starting pitchers. The Braves have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Expect another higher-scoring game tonight. 25* MLB National League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Caleb Smith and Julio Teheran. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-20-19 |
Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 10 |
|
7-8 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (961) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Alex Young. THE SITUATION: Arizona (63-63) won the opening game of this series last night by a 5-3 score. Colorado (57-68) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have played 16 of their last 22 games at home Under the Total after a victory — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a win. The Under is also 6-1-1 in Arizona’s last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. This series began after the Diamondbacks’ hosted the Giants over the weekend — and Arizona has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after winning at least two straight games against NL West rivals. The Under is also 4-0-2 in the Diamondbacks’ last 6 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Young who is 4-3 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in eight starts (nine games). The left-hander has been a bit more effective at home where he owns a 1.10 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average in four starts. Arizona has also played 4 straight games Under the Total with Young facing a fellow opponent from the NL West. He faces a Rockies team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Under is also 12-3-2 in Colorado’s last 17 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Rockies have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 13-6-2 in Colorado’s last 21 games against NL West foes. And in their last 30 games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range, the Rockies have played 20 of these games Under the Total — and this includes them playing fifteen of their last twenty-two games Under the Total as a road underdog priced in that range. They counter with Freeland who is 3-10 with a 7.09 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in nineteen starts. While the lefty has a mediocre 4.86 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in nine starts, those numbers explode to a 9.25 ERA with a 1.76 WHIP and .337 opponent’s batting average in ten starts at home in Coors Field. The Under is 8-3-1 in Colorado’s last 12 road games with Freeland on the mound. The Rockies have also played 14 of their last 17 road games Under the Total with Freeland pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. He faces a Diamondbacks team that has seen the Under go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams — and these two teams have now played four straight games Under the Total when playing in Arizona’s Chase Field. 10* MLB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (961) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Alex Young. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-19-19 |
49ers v. Broncos UNDER 40.5 |
Top |
24-15 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (431) and the Denver Broncos (432). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-0) won their opening preseason game last week by a 17-9 score over Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Denver (1-1) looks to bounce-back from their 22-14 upset loss at Seattle back on August 8th where they were 2-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While the headlines with this 49ers team usually relate to their offense under head coach Kyle Shanahan, their defense has been drawn attention in training camp for their strong play. San Francisco limited the Cowboys to just 294 yards of offense last week in that preseason victory. Furthermore, the 49ers held Dallas to averaging just 4.8 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt — and in preseason games involving a road team that did not allow more than 5.5 YPA in the preseason game in the previous week, these games finished Under the Total in 48 of these last 71 situations (68%) where these conditions applied. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo did not play last week but he is expected to make his preseason debut tonight — although reports out of the San Francisco camp is that he will play only one or two series tonight before giving way to his backups. There is still a battle for the second string QB slot between C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens. Beathard injured his finger last week but he is expected to first off the bench after Garoppolo’s night is complete. San Francisco will likely rely on their deep bench at running back as well with Jerick McKinnon dealing with an injury. Shanahan did not risk playing Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman last week — so while they will both likely see snaps, they will likely not play much in this game to avoid risking another injury at the running back position. Denver has played 13 of their last 22 preseason games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss in the preseason in the previous week. The Broncos only gained 298 yards of offense last week despite it being their second preseason game after playing Atlanta in the Hall of Fame Game. Denver is averaging just 243.0 total YPG this preseason which has resulted in just 14 points in each of their games. Veteran QB Joe Flacco took his first snaps in live competition last week — he completed 3 of his 4 passes for 19 yards. It is not likely that he will play deep into this game. Expect the majority of the snaps to be given to rookies Drew Lock and Brett Rypien along with the fourth-year veteran Kevin Hogan. The former Stanford star has completed just 8 of his 15 passes for 54 yards with no touchdown passes in two preseason games. The Broncos have played 5 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams conducted joint practices in the lead-up to this exhibition game. The Denver defense played extremely well in those controlled scrimmage events. The Broncos have allowed only 7 and 3 points in the first half of their two preseason games — and that triggers a preseason-specific angle supporting the Under that has been 81% effective over the last five seasons. In preseason games with the Total set in then 35.5-42 point range, when one of the teams has not allowed more than a touchdown in their previous two preseason games, these games finished Under the Total in 21 of the last 26 games where these situations applied. 25* NFLx Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (431) and the Denver Broncos (432). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-18-19 |
Seahawks v. Vikings UNDER 41.5 |
Top |
19-25 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (429) and the Minnesota Vikings (430). THE SITUATION: Seattle (1-0) pulled off a 22-14 upset win at home against Denver back on August 8th as a 2-point underdog. Minnesota (1-0) pulled off an upset win the next night in New Orleans with their 34-25 win against the Saints as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Pete Carroll’s teams have played 20 of their 28 preseason games Under the Total after a straight-up win in the preseason — and this includes his Seahawks teams playing ten of their sixteen preseason games Under the Total after a win in the preseason in the previous week. Carroll’s Seattle teams have also played 12 of their last 17 preseason games after a point spread win in the preseason. The Seahawks defense played well in that game as they held the Broncos (who already had a preseason game under their belts) to just 298 yards of offense. Seattle has played 7 of their last 10 preseason games in the Carroll regime Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last preseason game in the previous week. The offense was not much better as Seattle managed only 18 first downs which resulted in 301 yards. Geno Smith struggled at quarterback as he completed just 3 of 9 passes. Russell Wilson did not play in that opening game — he will likely play in this game but the veteran will not play long in this game. Carroll’s Seahawks teams have played 7 of their last 9 road preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Seattle has also played 6 of their last 9 preseason games against fellow NFC opponents Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Minnesota has played 13 of their last 17 preseason games Under the Total after pulling off an upset victory in the preseason — and this includes them playing three of the four games Under the Total after an upset victory in the preseason under head coach Mike Zimmer. The Vikings have also played 5 of their last 6 preseason games in the Zimmer era Under the Total after a preseason victory on the road. The Minnesota offense was crisp — led by starter Kirk Cousins who completed all four of his passes for 65 yards and a touchdown — as they generated 460 yards in that game. But while the Vikings averaged 8.5 Yards-Per-Play against the Saints, they have then played 3 of their 4 preseason games Under the Total. This game may see more of Jake Browning who attempted only three passes last week. The rookie from Washington is battling Sean Mannion and Kyle Sloter for a backup spot on the depth chart. Only Mannion has NFL experience with his ten-game appearances out of that group after Cousins.
FINAL TAKE: The Vikings backup quarterbacks will have a challenge facing this Seahawks team that held Denver to just 5.3 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt last week. Preseason games where the road team did not allow more than 5.5 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt in their previous preseason game have then gone Under the Total in 48 of these last 70 situations (69%). 25* NFLx Fox-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (429) and the Minnesota Vikings (430). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-17-19 |
Patriots v. Titans UNDER 43 |
Top |
22-17 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (419) and the Tennessee Titans (420). THE SITUATION: New England (1-0) opened up their exhibition season by going on the road to crush the Lions in Detroit by a 31-3 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Tennessee (1-0) comes off a 27-10 upset victory in their first preseason game at Philadelphia where they were 1.5-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots flexed their muscles on defense against the Lions with the young talent they have assembled on that side of the field which has given them nice depth for deep playoff runs. New England held Detroit to just 93 yards of offense while limiting them to only 3.0 Yards-Per-Play. The Patriots have played 6 of their last 9 preseason games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the previous preseason game in the prior week. They went into halftime with a 20-0 shutout lead over the Lions as well — and they have then played 9 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half of their previous preseason game. These two teams have played two joint practices together with this exhibition game serving as the third encounter between these two teams this week. The last time the Patriots conducted joint practices before their second preseason game, Tom Brady only two series in that game. Don’t expect to see Brady out on the field very long tonight. I suspect that rookie Jarrett Stidham out of Auburn will get the majority of snaps to get him more opportunities against professional defenses. He was very effective last week in completing 14 of 24 passes for 179 yards with one touchdown against the Lions — but the Titans defense will benefit from both that game tape as well as two days of direct experience scrimmaging against him to now offer him come challenging looks. New England has played 22 of their last 37 preseason games Under the Total — and they have also played 13 of their last 21 road preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Tennessee’s defense also played quite well last week in holding the Eagles to just 227 yards of offense. The Titans were also able to control the time of possession by being on offense for 37:51 minutes of that game. Tennessee limited Philadelphia to just 37 rushing yards in that preseason game. The Titans have then played 5 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their previous preseason game — and they have played both preseason games Under the Total in the Matt Vrabel era Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their previous preseason contest. Quarterback Marcus Mariota threw only 8 passes last week for just 24 yards — I do not expect him to see the field too much tonight. Backup Ryan Tannehill looked very good as a backup (with whispers that he could challenge for Mariota’s job) by completing 12 of 16 passes for 130 yards and two TD passes. Don’t be surprised if third-stringer Logan Woodside gets plenty of action tonight. It is a big dropoff to the third-year pro from Toledo who has yet to play in an NFL regular season contest. Tennessee has played their last 3 games against fellow AFC opponents Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: In preseason games between conference rivals, when the Total is set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, these games finished Under the Total in 22 of these last 28 situations (79%). With these teams already facing off with two joint practices, expect these two AFC playoff teams from last year to engage in an exhibition game that is pure vanilla. 25* NFLx AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (419) and the Tennessee Titans (420). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-17-19 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Manchester City UNDER 3 |
Top |
2-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the Tottenham Hotspurs (200049) and Manchester City (200050). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W1-D0-L0) won their opening match last Saturday with their 3-1 victory over Aston Villa. Manchester City (W1-D0-L0) began the defense of their 2018-19 English Premier League championship with a 5-0 victory at West Ham.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tottenham is undermanned for this match with Dele Alli, Ryan Sessegnon, and Ben Davies all dealing with injuries while Juan Foyth and Son Heung-min ineligible to play as they finish out respective suspensions. The Spurs still have a healthy Harry Kane who scored twice in the final five minutes of their match with the promoted Aston Villa side to escape with that 3-1 victory. The Tottenham offensive attack was sluggish for most of that match until Christian Eriksen took the pitch to offer Kane a passing combination from the midfield. The Spurs scored only 10 goals in their ten EPL matches last season against one of the Big Six opponents. However, Tottenham’s defense was solid in those matches as they surrendered only 15 goals in those ten matches against the Big Six. Only two of those ten matches saw more than three combined goals scored with five of those matches seeing no more than two combined goals scored by both teams. Manager Mauricio Pochettino typically has his team embrace defensive tactics in these high-profile matches — and that will even more likely be the case given that his starting XI is not his best possible group. Manchester City produced another clean sheet last Saturday by blanking West Ham. The Citizens were second in the EPL last season by allowing only 29 goals in their thirty-eight matches all season. Man City’s defense plays consistently well even against the best competition in the league. Manchester City allowed only five goals in their ten matches against Power Six sides — and they surrendered a mere three goals in their five home matches against these Big Six teams. Pep Guardiola is also dealing with some injuries with Leroy Sane out as he prepares for knee surgery and Benjamin Mendy still working on his game fitness.
FINAL TAKE: These teams and managers are very familiar with each other. They faced off against each other three times in a twelve-day stretch last April with one EPL match and the two-legs of their Championship League Semifinals clash. Two of those matches ended in 1-0 results with Tottenham winning the opening match at home in that Champions League clash on April 9th before Man City avenged losing that semifinals showdown with a 1-0 victory in EPL play on April 20th. The Spurs advanced to the Champions League Finals by the road team goals scored tie-breaker after a 4-3 result at Man City on April 17th in a wild game where the Citizens needed to win by at least two goals. That result was a bit of an aberration given the urgency Manchester City had to win by two goals (after the Spurs registered a goal on the road). Expect the defensive tactics of those other two April matches serve as the template for this encounter. 25* English Premier League NBC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between the Tottenham Hotspurs (200049) and Manchester City (200050). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-15-19 |
Raiders v. Cardinals UNDER 40.5 |
Top |
33-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (409) and the Arizona Cardinals (410). THE SITUATION: Oakland (1-0) won their opening preseason game last Saturday in their 14-3 victory at home over the Los Angeles Rams as a 4.5-point favorite. Arizona (1-0) also won their first exhibition game this preseason with their 17-13 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last Thursday as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: One of the reliable sources of evidence in handicapping preseason games invokes the team trends tied to the head coach in various situations. Head coach Jon Gruden has seen his teams played 11 of their 14 preseason games Under the Total after a win in the preseason at home in his coaching career with the Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Gruden’s teams have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a preseason win at home by double-digits. Furthermore, the Raiders have played 4 straight preseason games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range in Gruden’s second stint with the Raiders. The Oakland offense generated 407 total yards last week — but they were able to churn out those yards by controlling the Time of Possession for 35:27 minutes of that game. The Raiders kept the chains moving by rushing for 149 yards — and they outrushed the Rams by +92 net yards. Oakland has then played 13 o their last 17 preseason games Under the Total after outrushing their previous preseason opponent in the prior week by at least 75 yards. Quarterbacks Mike Glennon and Nathan Peterman combined to complete 26 of 37 passes for 266 yards. But inconsistency remains an issue for both signal-callers. Glennon threw two interceptions last week — and Peterman’s struggles with consistency are well-documented. Scoring only 14 points despite gaining over 400 yards and controlling the clock for almost 60% of the game is not a great sign moving forward. Second-year offensive lineman, Brandon Parker, struggled in pass protection — and the Raiders have played 10 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in the previous preseason game in the prior week. Incumbent starter, Derek Carr, did not play on Saturday. Carr only played in the first and third preseason games last August where he threw just seven combined passes — so Gruden’s likely approach this preseason will be to limit Carr’s exposure in these exhibition games. Besides, Gruden has the incentive to continue to observe Glennon and Peterman play against hostile competition since he is undecided on who will serve as Carr’s primary backup. The Raiders should feel encouraged by the play of their defense that limited the Rams’ offense (albeit, not playing their first unit) to just 190 yards of offense. Los Angeles averaged only 3.8 Yards-Per-Play — and Oakland has played 10 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total after not allowing more than 4.0 YPP in their previous preseason game. Additionally, the Raiders have played 11 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Arizona managed only 289 yards of offense in the debut of the Kliff Kingsbury offense last week against the Chargers defense. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray was on the field for only ten plays in that game. And while he looked pretty good, he did not lead the offense to any points. Kingsbury declared that Murray will play “longer” tonight — but I do not expect that to be significantly longer with Kingsbury falling under the Sean McVay new school of coaching that does not value playing the first-string offense in these exhibition games. That means that the majority of the quarterbacking will likely be handled by the law firm of Hundley, Anderson, and Kanoff — and with only Brett Hundley seeming to offer potential upside as opposed to rookie Drew Anderson from the FCS school, Murray State, and second-year man, Charles Kanoff, from another FCS school, Princeton. Those latter two FCS quarterbacks with zero game experience in the regular season will have to work behind the backups of an already suspect offensive line. The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total after a preseason straight-up victory — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their previous preseason game. And while Arizona was outrushed by -123 yards last week to the Chargers, they have then played 9 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after being outrushed in the previous week in the preseason by at least 75 yards. The Cardinals gave up 357 yards in that game while allowing Los Angeles to average 7.0 YPP — but they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 7.0 YPP in their previous preseason game in the previous week.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona stays at home to host their second preseason game — and they have played 22 of their last 36 home preseason games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Expect both these teams to struggle to score 20 points apiece — despite the Total in the 40-point range. 25* NFLx ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (409) and the Arizona Cardinals (410). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-19 |
Sun v. Aces UNDER 160.5 |
|
81-89 |
Loss |
-108 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Sun (607) and the Las Vegas Aces (608). THE SITUATION: Connecticut (16-7) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 89-57 upset loss at Minnesota as a 3-point favorite. Las Vegas (15-8) has lost two of their last three games with their 87-84 upset loss to Chicago as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sun have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Connecticut has played 7 straight games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss by at least 10 points — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Suns have also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Head coach Curt Miller will want his team focusing on defense after allowing the Lynx to make 53.7% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort of the season. Connecticut stays on the road where they limit their hosts to shooting just 37.8% from the field. The Suns have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total as an underdog. Connecticut has also played 6 straight games Under the Total against Western Conference foes. Head coach Bill Laimbeer will also likely be stressing defense after his team’s upset loss at home on Friday. Last Vegas held the Sky to 42.9% shooting but that was still the worst defensive performance in their last five games. The Aces stay at home where they limit their opponents to just 37.9% shooting. The Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Aces have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. And while Las Vegas has scored at least 75 points in two straight games, they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The Aces have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is 4-0-1 in Las Vegas’ last 5 games when playing with one day of rest.
FINAL TAKE: The Aces are tops in the WNBA in Defensive Rating with the Sun ranking third in the league in that metric — and both teams hold those same spots in the Defensive Rating numbers over their last ten games. These two teams have also played 9 of their last 12 encounters Under the Total when playing in Las Vegas. 10* WNBA Connecticut-Las Vegas ESPN2 O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Sun (607) and the Las Vegas Aces (608). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-07-19 |
Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 |
|
1-6 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (909) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Zac Gallen. THE SITUATION: Arizona (57-57) has won three of their last four games with their 8-4 victory over the Phillies in the second game of this series. Philadelphia (59-54) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games on the road Over the Total after losing two of their last three contests. Additionally, not only has Philadelphia played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game but they have also played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last contest. The Philly bullpen let the team down yesterday by giving up six earned runs — and they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed at least five earned runs. Philadelphia has also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They give the ball to Vargas who is 6-5 with a 3.93 ERA along with a 1.25 WHIP in nineteen starts (twenty appearances). The left-hander is making his second start with his new team after being traded from the Mets at the trade deadline. The sabermetrics are troubling with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.02 and 5.08 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. Vargas’ first start in a Phillies uniform was a success as he allowed only two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work — but that start was at his new home against the White Sox. Vargas has a 2.92 ERA along with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in nine starts (ten games) as the home team — but those numbers skyrocket to a 5.03 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .246 opponent’s batting average in his ten starts on the road. Vargas’ teams have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with him making the start. He faces a hot-hitting Diamondbacks team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .281 batting average along with a .369 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .867 over that span. Arizona has played 4 straight games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Over is 5-1-2 in the Diamondbacks’ last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Gallen who will be making his first start with his new team since being acquired in a trade with Miami. The right-hander had a 1-3 record with the Marlins along with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in seven starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for the 23-year-old either with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.44 and a 4.46 moving forward this season. Gallen was not as effective at home when pitching for Miami either — despite Marlins Park being friendly to pitchers. Gallen had a 3.71 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP at home as compared to his filthy 1.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP when pitching on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (909) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (910) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-06-19 |
A's v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 |
|
11-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (975) and the Chicago Cubs (976) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: Chicago (61-51) has won four straight games with their 6-5 win over the A’s in the opening game of this series. Oakland (64-49) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win — and they have also played 17 of their last 23 home games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Additionally, Chicago has played 27 of their last 43 games Under the Total after a narrow win by just one run — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Cubs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home at Wrigley Field. They give their ball to Lester who is 9-7 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.95 ERA along with a 1.30 WHIP in eleven starts as compared to his 4.81 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Lester pitching on grass. He faces an A’s team that has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Oakland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the A’s have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Anderson who is 9-7 with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.49 ERA along with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .234 as opposed to his 4.65 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average of .286 at home. Not only has Oakland played 5 straight road games Under the Total with Anderson on the hill but they have also played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total with Anderson pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces a Cubs’ lineup that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. The Under is also 8-1-1 in Chicago’s last 10 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The A’s have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a one-run loss to their opponent. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (975) and the Chicago Cubs (976) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-04-19 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 10 |
Top |
4-7 |
Win
|
102 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (973) and the New York Yankees (974) listing both starting pitchers David Price and J.A. Happ. New York (71-39) has won four straight games after taking Game Three of their AL East series with the Red Sox by a 6-4 score in the second game of their double-header yesterday. Boston (59-54) has now lost seven straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight contests. Additionally, Boston has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while the Red Sox have not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. Additionally, Boston has played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 29 of their last 43 road games Over the Total when priced as the favorite of at least -110. They give the ball to Price who is 7-4 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in twenty starts this season. The left-hander has allowed fewer runs at home in Fenway this year where he has a 3.46 ERA as opposed to his 4.13 ERA when he is pitching on the road. Price returns from paternity leave for this critical contest for the reeling Sox — but he has been part of the problem given his 6.52 ERA over his last four starts. And Yankee Stadium has been a house of horrors for Price — in his seven regular-season starts here since the start of the 2016 campaign, he has been saddled with an 8.59 ERA along with a 1.96 WHIP. Boston has played 5 straight games Over the Total with Price pitching in New York against the Yankees. He faces a hot-hitting Bronx Bombers team (despite being a M*A*S*H unit with their hitters) who are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .274 batting average along with a .349 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .836 during that span. New York has played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a win by two runs or less — and they have also played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after winning at least four in a row. The Yankees have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while the New York bullpen logged in 8 innings of work yesterday with them using reliever Chad Green as their opener, they have then played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total when their bullpen pitched at least 7 innings in their last game. Additionally, the Yankees have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Happ who is 8-6 with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander is also returning from paternity leave but he has struggled in Yankee Stadium as well where he has a 5.64 ERA along with a 1.47 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .305 in twelve starts as compared to his 4.62 ERA along with a nice 1.19 WHIP and .238 opponent’s batting average on the road. New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with Happ facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Red Sox team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 21-10-1 in their last 32 games against starting pitchers. And while Boston has played 29 of their last 43 games Over the Total with the number set at 10 or higher, the Yanks have played 21 of their last 33 games Over the Total with the total set at 10 or more.
FINAL TAKE: New York has won the last four games of this series going back all the way to the idyllic last few days in July last Sunday night. Boston has played 29 of their last 46 games Over the Total when playing with at least double-revenge — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when having lost at least four straight games against their opponent. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (973) and the New York Yankees (974) listing both starting pitchers David Price and J.A. Happ. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-04-19 |
Storm v. Sparks UNDER 151 |
Top |
75-83 |
Loss |
-103 |
2 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Storm (635) and Los Angeles Sparks (636). THE SITUATION: Seattle (12-10) has lost two straight games after their 99-79 loss to Washington on Friday as a 5-point underdog. Los Angles (12-8) has their last two games as well as five of their last six contests with their 76-68 win over Las Vegas on Thursday as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Storm played their worst defensive game of the season on Friday as they allowed the Mystics to nail 54.8% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed in 2019. Head coach Dan Hughes will certainly get on his team to play better on the defensive end of the court tonight. As it is, Seattle has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 50% of their shots from the field. The Storm has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. The reigning WNBA champions are one of the best defensive teams in the league this season even without Breanna Stewart and Sue Bird who have not played this year due to their respective injuries. Seattle is 3rd in the WNBA with a Defensive Rating of 95.2 — and they hold their home hosts to just 41.7% shooting. The Storm made 40% of their shots agent the Mystics which may not sound much like but it was their best shooting mark in their last three games. Seattle has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in their last game — and they may be without forward Kaleena Mosquera-Lewis who is questionable with a knee injury. That game with the Mystics flew over the 158 point Total on Thursday but the Storm have played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Under is also 17-4-1 in Seattle’s last 22 games played with one day of rest. The Storm go back on the road they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. Furthermore, the Under is 22-3-2 in Seattle’s last 27 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Storm have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total as the underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference foes. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents. The Sparks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. LA’s 42.3% shooting percentage on Thursday was their worst shooting effort in their last three games — but they have played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total after making at least 42% of their shots in three straight games. The Sparks will be understaffed in this game with Alana Beard out with a hamstring injury, Riquina Williams still serving her ten-game suspension and Nneka Ogwunmike listed as questionable with a jaw injury. Los Angeles stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 52 games — and they have played 17 of their last 22 home games Under the Total as the favorite. The Sparks have also played 11 of their last 12 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. Look for LA to lean on their defense that has been bolstered by the return of Candace Parker in the middle. Over their last ten games, the Sparks’ Defensive Rating of 92.4 is second best in the WNBA — and they have held their last five opponents to just 37.9% shooting from the field. The Under is 20-6-2 in Los Angeles’ last 28 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Sparks will be motivated to avenge an 84-62 upset loss at Seattle where they allowed the Storm to nail 14 of their 26 shots from behind the arc for a sizzling 53.8% percentage. Los Angeles has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. The Under is 38-11-3 in the last 52 meetings between these two teams — and the Under is 21-6-2 in the last 29 battles taking place in Los Angeles. 25* WNBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Storm (635) and Los Angeles Sparks (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-04-19 |
Reds v. Braves UNDER 9 |
|
6-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 1:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (951) and the Atlanta Braves (952) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Julio Teheran. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (66-46) has won four of their last five games after their 5-4 victory over the Reds in the second game of this series yesterday. Cincinnati (51-58) has lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. Cincinnati has played four straight games where neither team scored more than five runs — and they have then played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total after playing at least four straight games where neither team plated more than five runners. The Reds have not committed an error in two straight games as well as in seven of their last eight contests — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total after not committing an error in at least two straight games. Furthermore, the Under is 45-19-1 in Cincinnati’s last 55 games on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total with the number set at 8.5 to 10. They give the ball to Gray who is 6-6 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander has been outstanding in his four starts since the All-Star Break where he has owns a 2.96 ERA while not allowing more than two earned runs in three of these starts. Gray has also pitched a bit better on the road where he sees his ERA drop to a 3.16 mark while holding an opponent’s batting average of .201 in ten starts as opposed to his 3.75 ERA with a .236 opponent’s batting average at home. Gray’s teams have played 23 of their last 34 road games Under the Total with him making the start — and the Reds have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Gray facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Braves lineup that has cooled off as of late as they are scoring only 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .257 batting average along with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .801 in those games. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Braves have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win. Atlanta stays at home where the Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games — and the Under is also 7-1-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Teheran who is 6-7 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The veteran right-hander comes off an outstanding month of July where he had a 1.48 ERA with 29 strikeouts and just 7 walks in 30 1/3 innings of work. Teheran has not allowed more than two earned runs in each of his last six starts. He has done his best work at home this year where he owns a 2.26 ERA along with a 1.26 WHIP in ten starts as compared to his 4.28 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in thirteen starts on the road. Teheran allowed only two earned runs in his last start in 6 2/3 innings at Washington on Tuesday — and the Braves have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total with Teheran pitching with just four days of rest.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is a decisive 35-16-1 in the Reds’ last 52 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. And in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 4 times. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (951) and the Atlanta Braves (952) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Julio Teheran. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-03-19 |
Aces v. Wings UNDER 147 |
Top |
75-70 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Aces (631) and the Dallas Wings (632). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (14-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with their 76-68 loss in Los Angeles against the Sparks as a 1.5-point underdog. Dallas (6-15) snapped their six-game losing streak on Thursday with their 87-64 upset victory over New York as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wings made 46.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. But Dallas is still making only 36.5% of their shots over their last five games so regression from that outlier effort against the Liberty is likely. The Wings’ 90.4 Offensive Rating is the second-lowest in the WNBA. The Wings have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Their victory over New York finished below the 151 point total — and they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished below the number. Dallas stays at home where the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 140 or higher. The Wings hold their visitors to just 39.1% shooting on their home court. Dallas has also held their last five opponents to just 37.6% shooting from the field. The Wings have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as the underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Las Vegas has seen the Under go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. The Aces allowed Los Angeles to shoot 42.3% from the field which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed in their last three games. Las Vegas still leads the WNBA with a Defensive Rating of 88.9 under head coach Bill Laimbeer who has instilled a commitment to defense that is reminiscent of his old Bad Boys’ teams as a member of the Detroit Pistons. The Aces have played 18 of their last 25 road games Under the Total after allowing at least 75 points in their last game. Las Vegas holds their home hosts to just 38.3% shooting from the field — and they have still held their last five opponents to just 35.9% shooting from the field. The Aces have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. The bigger concern for Laimbeer may be the shooting slump of center Liz Cambage who missed eleven of her twelve shots on Thursday. Cambage has managed only 15 combined points in her last two games after scoring double-digits in fifty straight contests. With the All-Star break last week, this is just their third game in eleven days — and Las Vegas has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when not playing more than their third game in ten days. The Aces have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Las Vegas’ 86-54 win at home to Dallas back on Wednesday. The Wings have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when they are looking to avenge a double-digit loss on the road. Dallas has also played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 85 points. 25* WNBA NBA-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Aces (631) and the Dallas Wings (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-03-19 |
Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10 |
Top |
4-6 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (915) and the Baltimore Orioles (916) listing both starting pitchers Thomas Pannone and Dylan Bundy. THE SITUATION: Toronto (45-67) has won five straight games after winning the first two games of this series with their 5-2 victory over the Orioles last night. Baltimore (36-73) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jays have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning two straight games on the road against an AL East rival. And while Toronto has not allowed more than three runs in five straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in five straight games. The Blue Jays stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home — and they have also played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 10 to 10.5 range. Additionally, Toronto has played 21 of their last 30 games on the road Over the Total in the month of August. They give the ball to Pannone who is 2-4 with a 5.98 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 49 2/3 innings of work this season. The left-hander is getting the first shot to take over in the Blue Jays rotation for the recently traded Marcus Stroman. But while Pannone has a 4.50 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .229 at home, those numbers skyrocket to a 7.89 ERA along with a 1.57 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in 21 2/3 innings of work on the road. Toronto has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Pannone on the hill. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games at night Over the Total with Pannone making the start. He faces an Orioles team that has played 5 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 5-1-2 in their last 8 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Baltimore has seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a loss — and they have played 30 of their last 44 games Over the Total after losing two in a row. The Over is also 8-3-2 in the Orioles’ last 13 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs. Additionally, the Over is 11-5-2 in Baltimore’s last 18 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 26 home games Over the Total against fellow AL East opponents. The Orioles have also played 38 of their last 62 games Over the Total when playing at night. They counter with Bundy who is 5-11 with a 5.24 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander is a gopher ball machine as he is allowing 2.1 Home Runs per 9 innings of work. Bundy has surrendered multiple home runs in seven of his starts this season. He also has fared worse at home in Camden Yards where he has a 6.16 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .299 in ten starts. Baltimore has played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with Bundy facing a team with a losing record — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with Bundy pitching with the Total set at 10 or higher. He faces a hot-hitting Blue Jays lineup that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .292 batting average along with a .366 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .943 during that span. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Orioles have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Bundy starting against the Blue Jays.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has now lost their last three meetings with the Blue Jays this season. The Orioles have played 24 of their last 36 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge on their mind. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (915) and the Baltimore Orioles (916) listing both starting pitchers Thomas Pannone and Dylan Bundy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-01-19 |
Aces v. Sparks UNDER 155 |
Top |
68-76 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Aces (623) and the Los Angeles Sparks (624). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (14-6) has won three straight games after their easy 86-54 win over Dallas on Tuesday as an 11.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (11-8) has won four of their last five games as they return to the court for the first time after the All-Star break which concluded with their 78-66 win at Atlanta back on July 23rd as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Look for the Sparks to be a bit rusty with their nine-day layoff. They made 43.1% of their shots in their victory over the Dream which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last game. But Los Angeles has then played 18 of their last 24 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in their last game. The Sparks have also seen the Under finish 34-16-1 in their last 51 games when playing with at least three days of rest — and they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total at home when playing no more than their third game in ten days. Los Angeles has also played 21 of their last 28 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Sparks return home here they have played 36 of their last 51 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total when favored by no more than 3 points. They will be understaffed tonight with guard Riquina Williams serving a ten-game suspension and guard Alana Beard doubtful with a hamstring injury. Las Vegas made 46.9% of their shots on Tuesday in their 32-point victory over the Wings which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. That nice shooting percentage was the product of a whopping 27 team assists in that game — but they have then played 6 straight games on the road Under the Total after a game where they generated at least 24 assists as a team. More impressively, the Aces limited Dallas to just 28.6% shooting from the field. Head coach Bill Laimbeer has his team playing like his old Bad Boy Detroit Pistons teams as they lead the WNBA with a Defensive Rating of 88.9. Las Vegas has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to no better than a 30% field goal percentage. The Aces have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Las Vegas goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. The Aces have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against Western Conference foes. And while this is just their third game in the last ten days, Las Vegas has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when not playing more than their third game in the last ten days.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 13 meetings Under the Total — and this includes them playing six of their last seven games Under the Total when playing in Los Angeles. 25* WNBA ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Aces (623) and the Los Angeles Sparks (624). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-31-19 |
Astros v. Indians UNDER 10 |
|
4-10 |
Loss |
-114 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (967) and the Cleveland Indians (968) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Zack Plesac. THE SITUATION: Houston (69-39) won the opening game of this series last night with their 2-0 victory over the Indians. Cleveland (62-44) has lost their last two games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. Additionally, Houston has played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. The Astros have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total as a money-line favorite priced in the -100 to -150 price range. Houston has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Urquidy who is 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in four starts this season. The promising rookie has struck out 15 batters while surrendering only six hits in his last two starts. He also has a 2.79 ERA in his two starts on the road. While the sample size is small, the sabermetrics are very encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.29 and 2.93 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. He faces an Indians team that has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 35-15-1 in Cleveland’s last 51 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Indians have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a defeat by two runs or less. They also have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, Cleveland has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 range — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Indians have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Zach Plesac who is 5-3 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has been very tough at home at Progressive Field where he enjoys a 2.86 ERA along with a 0.95 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in five starts. Cleveland has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Plesac on the mound. He faces an Astros lineup that has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Indians have played 15 of the last 17 games Under the Total when motivated to avenge a loss where they did not score more than one run. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (967) and the Cleveland Indians (968) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Zack Plesac. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-30-19 |
Wings v. Aces UNDER 150.5 |
Top |
54-86 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Wings (615) and the Las Vegas Aces (616). THE SITUATION: Dallas (5-14) returns from the All-Star break having lost five straight games after their 70-66 loss to Phoenix as a 2-point underdog back on July 20th. Las Vegas (13-6) returns to the court after their 79-62 win over Seattle last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wings have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Dallas has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days rest. The Wings go back on the road where they are a winless 0-10 this season. Dallas scores only 67.7 PPG away from home while making just 37.1% of their shots. The Wings have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total. Dallas has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference foes. Las Vegas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Aces have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Head coach Bill Laimbeer has his team playing like his old Bad Boy Detroit Pistons teams as they lead the WNBA with a Defensive Rating of 90.0. Las Vegas holds their visitors to hitting just 38.3% from the field when playing at home — and they have limited their last five opponents to just 36.8% shooting from the field. The Under is 9-4-1 in the Aces’ last 14 games at home. Las Vegas has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents. They will likely be without one of their top scorers in forward A’Ja Wilson who has missed their last two games with an ankle injury — last year’s Rookie of the Year is scoring 15.4 PPG this season.
FINAL TAKE: These are the two bottom teams in the WNBA when it comes to offense. Dallas is second-to-last with their 91.7 Offensive Rating while Las Vegas is last in the league with their 89.0 Offensive Rating. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* WNBA Bailout Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Wings (615) and the Las Vegas Aces (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-30-19 |
Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
101 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Adam Wainwright. THE SITUATION: Chicago (56-49) begins this series coming off an 11-4 win at Milwaukee on Sunday. St. Louis (56-49) has lost their last two games after suffering a 6-2 loss at home to Houston on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has played 8 straight games Under the Total after an off day. The Cubs stay on the road where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games. Chicago has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Darvish who is 3-4 with a 4.54 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander has found his control finally as he has walked only two batters over his last three starts spanning 18 innings of work. Darvish has a 2.00 ERA over that span while striking out 21 batters. He has also been more effective on the road where he owns a 4.07 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in ten starts as compared to his 4.98 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts at home. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Darvish facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Cardinals team that has played 20 of their last 27 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 15-5-1 in St. Louis’ last 21 games after a loss — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Cardinals’ last 6 games after failing to score more than two runs — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after an off day. They counter with Wainwright who is 7-7 with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in nineteen starts. The right-hander has been awful on the road where he has a 7.16 ERA along with a 1.61 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .299 — but he has been outstanding at home where he enjoys a 2.33 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and .235 opponent’s batting average in nine starts. The Under is 6-2-1 in St. Louis’ last 9 home games with Wainwright on the hill — and the Under is 21-8-3 in their last 32 home games with Wainwright facing a team with a winning record. The Under is also 4-0-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 home games with Wainwright facing the Cubs. He faces a Chicago lineup that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .196 batting average along with a .238 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .596 during that span.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Cardinals’ Busch Stadium. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Adam Wainwright. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-28-19 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 |
Top |
9-6 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 34 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Eduardo Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: Boston won the third game of this series on Saturday with their 9-5 victory. New York has lost the first three games of this series — and they have lost four of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have now surrendered 59 runs in their last seven games. The Over is now 23-8-1 in their last 30 games after allowing at least five runs. Additionally, the Bronx Bombers have seen the Over go 42-13-2 of their last 57 games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 25-5-1 in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to German who is 12-2 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in sixteen starts (seventeen games) this season. The right-hander has done his best work at home in Yankee Stadium where he owns a 2.13 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .195 — but those numbers rise to a 5.66 mark on the road with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in nine starts. The Over is 8-2-1 in New York’s last 11 road games with German on the hill — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games with German facing a team with a winning record. He faces a red hot Red Sox lineup that has scored 7.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .315 batting average along with a .391 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .957 during that span. Boston has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers which includes them playing four of their last five games Over the Total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher at home in Fenway Park. The Red Sox have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitcher with a WHIP no higher than 1.15. Boston has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Red Sox have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Sale who is 5-9 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has not been as effective at home with the Green Monster in left-field where he has a 4.26 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in ten starts as compared to his 3.78 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .217 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 10-4-2 in Boston’s last 16 home games with Sale on the mound. Sales faces a New York team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .316 batting average along with a .371 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .937 over that span. The Yankees have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played their last 6 meetings Over the Total — and the Over is also 12-3-2 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams when playing in Fenway Park. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Eduardo Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-27-19 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 |
|
5-9 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
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At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Eduardo Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: Boston (58-47) has won four of their last five games with their 10-5 victory over the Yankees last night. New York (66-37) has not only lost the first two games of this series by also four of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have now surrendered 50 runs in their last six games — and their bullpen has logged in 14 1/3 innings of work over their last three games. New York has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing three straight games where their bullpen pitched at least 4 innings. The Over is 22-8-1 in their last 30 games after allowing at least five runs. Additionally, the Bronx Bombers have played 41 of their last 54 games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 24-5-1 in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Sabathia who is 5-5 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in sixteen starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.72 and 4.88 respectively moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. The left-hander has also struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.59 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and .299 opponent’s batting average in eight starts as compared to his 2.60 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .214 opponent’s batting average at home. New York has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with Sabathia on the hill. He faces a Red Sox lineup that has scored 8.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .313 batting average along with a .357 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .979 during that span. Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 20-8-1 in their last 29 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Red Sox have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win by at least eight runs. Boston has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Red Sox have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Rodriguez who is 12-4 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has not been as effective in day games where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.66 mark with a 1.60 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .280. Boston has played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total with Rodriguez pitching as a favorite priced at least at -110. Rodriguez comes off 7 scoreless innings of work at Tampa Bay in his last effort — but the Red Sox have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total with Rodriguez looking to follow up a Quality Start. New York is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .326 batting average along with a .384 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .945 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total wit the number set at 10 or higher — and Boston has played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total with the number set at 11 or higher. The Over is also 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams when playing in Fenway Park. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon FS1-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Eduardo Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-26-19 |
Tigers v. Mariners OVER 9.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 15 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (927) and the Seattle Mariners (928) listing both starting pitchers Daniel Norris and Yusei Kikuchi. THE SITUATION: Seattle (43-63) has won two straight games after winning the opening game of this series by a 10-2 score. Detroit (30-68) has lost their last three games as well as nine of their last ten contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 24-9-3 in the Mariners’ last 36 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row. Furthermore, the Over is 33-16-2 in Seattle’s last 51 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. Additionally, the Over is 27-13-3 in the Mariners’ last 43 games at home — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They give the ball to Kikuchi who is 4-7 with a 5.37 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has seen his numbers decline significantly in the grind of his first MLB season after coming over from Japan — and he has not been able to adapt to the book that teams have quickly written about his stuff. Over his last ten starts, Kikuchi is 1-6 with a 7.85 ERA. He also sees his ERA rise to a 5.79 mark in his ten starts at home. The Over is 8-1-1 in Seattle’s last 10 home games with Kikuchi on the hill — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total with Kikuchi facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Tigers team that loves to face left-handed pitching. Detroit scores only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game this season with a .232 batting average along with a .286 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .667 — but those hitting splits rise to a .259 batting average along with a .378 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .774 against left-handed starting pitchers which translates into them scoring a healthy 5.4 Runs-Per-Game against those lefties. The Over is 12-4-1 in the Tigers’ last 17 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, the Tigers have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. And while Detroit has only scored four combined runs in their last three games, they have then played 31 of their last 46 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in three straight games. The Over is also 10-2-1 in the Tigers’ last 13 games against teams with a losing record — and the Over is 8-1-1 in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Norris who is 2-8 with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in seventeen starts (twenty games). The left-hander comes off a rain-shortened start where he allowed only one run at home against Toronto — but Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when Norris is following up a start where he allowed only one earned run. Norris has a 4.62 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and .280 opponent’s batting average at home — yet those numbers rise significantly to a 5.28 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .305 in his ten starts (twelve games) on the road. The Tigers have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Norris on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle is swinging hot bats right now as they are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting .277 with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .791 over that span. The Over is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams when playing in Safeco Park. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (927) and the Seattle Mariners (928) listing both starting pitchers Daniel Norris and Yusei Kikuchi. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-26-19 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 11 |
|
5-10 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (917) and the Boston Red Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Andrew Cashner. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-47) has won three of their last four games after their 19-3 pounding of the Yankees last night. New York (66-36) has now lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have surrendered 40 runs in their last five games — and their bullpen has logged in 10 1/3 innings of work over their last two games. New York has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after playing two games where their bullpen pitched at least 9 combined innings. The Over is 21-8-1 in their last 30 games after allowing at least five runs. Additionally, the Bronx Bombers have played 40 of their last 53 games on the road — and the Over is 23-5-1 in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Paxton who is 5-5 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in seventeen starts. But the left-hander has struggled on the road where he owns a 4.78 ERA along with a 1.62 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .314 in seven starts. The Yankees have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Paxton on the hill. Paxton has struggled as of late with his command having issued 20 walks in his last 44 innings of work — and that has translated into a 5.52 ERA over that span. That likely spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E against this Red Sox team that is scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .291 batting average along with a .342 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .880 over that span. The Over is also 13-6-1 in Boston’s last 20 home games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 19-8-1 in their last 28 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Red Sox have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win by at least eight runs. Boston has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They counter with Cashner who is 9-5 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this season. The right-hander has seen his WHIP and opponent’s batting average rise to 1.33 and .263 marks at home as compared to his 1.18 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average on the road. This is his third start in a Red Sox uniform since being traded from Baltimore — and he has a 7.20 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in Fenway Park in 10 innings of work this year. Cashier also has a 6.19 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP in 16 innings of work against the Yankees this season. New York is scoring 8.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .323 batting average along with a .384 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .956 over that span. The Over is 21-8-1 in the Yanks’ last 30 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 35-14-2 in their last 51 games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total wit the number set at 10 or higher — and Boston has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the number set at 11 or higher. The Over is also 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams when playing in Fenway Park. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (917) and the Boston Red Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Andrew Cashner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-24-19 |
Orioles v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 |
|
2-5 |
Loss |
-107 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
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At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (923) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (924) listing both starting pitchers John Means and Taylor Clarke. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (31-68) has won two of their last three games after their 7-2 victory over the Diamondbacks in the second game of this series. Arizona (51-50) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 3-0-1 in the Orioles’ last 4 games after a win — and the Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. The Over is also 3-0-2 in Baltimore’s last 5 road games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Means who is 8-5 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in twenty appearances which include sixteen starts. The sabermetrics do call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.86 and 5.35 respectively moving forward. Means has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.52 mark along with a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in eight games (six starts) as opposes to his 2.56 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .203 opponent’s batting average in twelve games (ten starts) at home. The Orioles have played 5 straight games Over the Total with Means on the mound. He faces a hot-hitting Diamondbacks team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last five contests with a .292 batting average along with a .380 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .871 in those games. The Over is 6-0-1 in Arizona’s last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 4 games after a loss. Additionally, Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 3-0-2 in the Diamondbacks’ last 5 games at home in Chase Field. They counter with Clarke who is 2-3 with a 6.50 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in ten starts (eleven games). The right-hander has been even worse at home where his ERA rises to a 7.56 mark along with a 1.80 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .309 in four starts. Additionally, Arizona has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Clarke making the start. The Orioles are hitting better as of late as they are averaging 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .296 batting average along with a .340 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .873 in those game.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is now 4-1-3 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams when they are playing in Arizona. Expect another high scoring game. 10* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (923) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (924) listing both starting pitchers John Means and Taylor Clarke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-22-19 |
Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8.5 |
Top |
9-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (911) and the Tampa Bay Rays (912) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Jalen Beeks. THE SITUATION: Boston (54-46) has lost two of their last three games with their 5-0 loss at Baltimore yesterday. Tampa Bay (57-45) snapped a five-game losing streak yesterday with their 4-2 win against the Chicago White Sox.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox were shut out for the first time in eighty-one games — and they had bashed at least one home run in eleven straight games before yesterday. Boston has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Red Sox stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have played 23 of their last 35 road games Over the Total when priced as the favorite at -125 or higher. The Over is also 13-3-1 in Boston’s last 17 games when playing on artificial turf. And in their last 51 opening games to a new series, the Over is 34-15-2. They give the ball to Rodriguez who is 11-4 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in twenty starts. The left-hander has pitched his best at home where he owns a 3.84 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 — but those numbers skyrocket to a 4.91 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and .288 opponent’s batting average in ten starts on the road. Rodriguez also has a 7.11 ERA in four career starts at Tropicana Field. The Red Sox have lady 11 of their last 12 road games Over the Total with Rodriguez on the hill. And while Rodriguez comes off a strong effort where he allowed only two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work at home against Toronto, Boston has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Rodriguez following up a Quality Start in his last effort. Furthermore, the Red Sox have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total with Rodriguez pitching at night. Tampa Bay has seen the Over go 8-2-3 in their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Over is also 3-0-2 in the Rays’ last 5 opening games to a new series. They counter with Beeks who is 5-0 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been used exclusively as a bulk inning pitcher out of the bullpen — but he will be making his first official start in this game tonight. I am not sure I buy into the “opener” craze that teams like Tampa Bay have embraced (while conceding the opener can mess with the opposing team’s starting lineup when a pitcher throwing with the other hand comes in to pitch in the 2nd inning). That said, there is a reason that the Rays’ coaching staff has been reluctant to have Beeks open games until now. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.42 and 4.65 moving forward given his peripheral numbers. Because Beeks does not have much of a fastball, he needs all four of his pitches working to be effective. Beeks has not been as successful when pitching at home where he owns a 3.77 ERA along with a 1.42 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in 31 innings of work as opposed to his 1.87 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .215 opponent’s batting average in 33 2/3 innings on the road. He faces a Red Sox lineup that has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Boston will be looking to avenge a 6-1 loss at home to Tampa Bay back on June 9th. The Red Sox have played 26 of their last 36 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they scored only one run. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total when facing off in Tampa Bay. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (911) and the Tampa Bay Rays (912) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Jalen Beeks. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-21-19 |
Nationals v. Braves UNDER 11 |
|
1-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (953) and the Atlanta Braves (954) listing both starting pitchers Tyson Ross and Kevin Gausman. THE SITUATION: Washington (52-45) has won two of their last three games with their 5-3 victory over the Braves last night. Atlanta (59-41) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 5 runs in their last game. This is the seventh straight game on the road for Washington — and they have played 13 of their last 16 road games after playing their previous six games on the road. The Nationals have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record. They have called up Ross who is an ugly 0-1 with an 11.05 ERA in 14 2/3 innings of work out of the bullpen. There is little to sugarcoat the 26-year-old numbers this year other to say that the sabermetrics do call for that ERA to cut in half moving forward. The Nationals have played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with Ross making the start in previous seasons as an underdog. The Total is set in the 11 range in large part because Ross is making the start. But he is still facing a slumping Braves lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .237 batting average along with a .311 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .668 in those contests. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Braves’ last 8 games after a loss — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Under is also 4-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 6 games at home. They counter with Gausman who is 2-5 with a 6.21 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in thirteen starts. The veteran right-hander has come off the disabled list after dealing with plantar fasciitis in his right foot that could have contributed to his poor start. Gausman looked good in a rehab start on Tuesday as he struck out ten batters in 7 innings of work while giving up only two runs. He should pitch closer to the form he displayed last season after being traded to the Braves from Baltimore where he had five wins with five Quality Starts in ten appearances with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. His teams have played 13 of their last 20 home games with him making the start as a money-line favorite priced at least -150. He faces a Nationals team that has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Nationals have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the month of July. Let's trust the team trends in this game — especially with the high total installed for this contest. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (953) and the Atlanta Braves (954) listing both starting pitchers Tyson Ross and Kevin Gausman. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-21-19 |
A's v. Twins UNDER 10.5 |
|
6-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
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At 2:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (973) and the Minnesota Twins (974) listing both starting pitchers Daniel Mengden and Michael Pineda. THE SITUATION: Oakland (57-42) has won two straight games — as well as eight of their last nine contests — with their 5-4 victory yesterday. Minnesota (59-38) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Oakland stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. They give the ball to Mengden who is 5-1 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in seven starts (nine games). The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 1.11 WHIP along with a .238 opponent’s batting average in three starts (four games). The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Mengden pitching with the Total set at 10 or higher. Mengden has also been more effective for day games where he has a 3.68 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in three starts (four games). He faces a cold Twins lineup that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .253 batting average along with a .320 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .788 over that span. Minnesota has played 6 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Twins have also played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 10 to 10.5. Minnesota has also played 7 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Pineda who is 6-5 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander entered the season returning from Tommy John surgery — so the first half of the season was expected to be a work in progress. Hitting the disabled list in late May for knee tendinitis did not help matters. Over his last six starts, Pineda has a 2.60 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP while only allowed one earned run in five of those outings — and he has a 1.50 and a 0.94 WHIP while striking out 20 batters in 18 innings of work in his last three outings as things seem to be coming together for the 30-year-old. Remember, Pineda combined a 24.8% strikeout rate for the batters he faced from 2015 through 2017 before his elbow injury while inducing ground balls in 49.2% of the batted balls he allowed into play and walking only 5.2% of the batters he faced over that three-year period. Pineda’s velocity on his fastball has finally returned to what it was before his Tommy John surgery — so don’t be surprised if Pineda is dominant during the second half of this season for this powerful Twins lineup. He has done his best work at home this season where he enjoys a 3.98 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in ten starts as compared to his 4.87 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .272 opponent’s batting average on the road. Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 games with Pineda facing a team with a losing record. Pineda allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work in his last outing against the Mets — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the Twins’ last 5 games when he is following up a Quality Start. He faces a Minnesota team that has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing in Minnesota’s Target Field. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (973) and the Minnesota Twins (974) listing both starting pitchers Daniel Mengden and Michael Pineda. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-21-19 |
Rockies v. Yankees UNDER 10.5 |
Top |
8-4 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
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At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (979) and the New York Yankees (980) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and James Paxton. THE SITUATION: New York (64-33) has won five straight games with their 11-5 victory over the Rockies yesterday. Colorado (46-52) has lost six straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 13 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total after a win by at least four runs — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a victory. New York has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-1 in the Bronx Bombers last 9 games at home in Yankee Stadium — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The New York bullpen is getting it done as of late after not surrendering an earned run again last night. The Yanks’ bullpen has a sparkling 0.43 ERA over their last five games with a 0.76 WHIP while giving up just one earned run over that span consisting of 21 innings of work. New York has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow an earned run — and they have played 40 of their last 58 games Under the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of 2.00 or better over their last five games. They give the ball to Paxton who is 5-4 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in sixteen starts this season. The left-hander has allowed only five earned runs in three starts this month for a nifty 2.50 ERA. Paxton has also been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.22 ERA along with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in nine starts. Paxton’s teams have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total with him taking the mound in the month of July. He should fare well against this Rockies team that is scoring only 4.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .243 batting average along with a .281 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .697. Colorado has played 6 straight games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Rockies have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total on the road after a loss. Colorado has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing at least four straight games. The Rockies stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Additionally, Colorado has played 22 of their last 30 road games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +150 to +200 range. And the Under is 28-11-3 in their last 42 games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. They counter with Marquez who is 8-5 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander looks to redeem himself from a bad outing in his last start against the Giants where he allowed 11 earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings of work at home. That start was at home in Coors Field where he is saddled with a 7.07 ERA along with a 1.70 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .336 — but he has been much better at home where enjoys a 3.33 ERA along with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in ten starts. The Under is 7-3-1 in Colorado’s last 11 road games with Marquez facing a team with a winning record. The sabermetrics are encouraging for Marquez with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.92 and 3.63 moving forward. The Rockies have also played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total with Marquez pitching after a loss.
FINAL TAKE: The Colorado bullpen has logged in 9 2/3 innings of work over the last two days in the Bronx — but they have then played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 innings in their last two games. 25* MLB TBS-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (979) and the New York Yankees (980) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and James Paxton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-20-19 |
Mercury v. Wings UNDER 145 |
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70-66 |
Win
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100 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Mercury (639) and the Dallas Wings (640). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (8-8) takes the court again after their 69-64 victory over these Wings on Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite. Dallas (5-13) then played the next day on Thursday where they lost in Los Angeles by a duplicate 69-64 score as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mercury have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total for a point spread loss. This team is still without two starters with both Diana Taurasi and Sancho Little out with injuries. Phoenix did it with their defense on Wednesday as they held the Wings to just 34.7% shooting from the field. Now the Mercury goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total away from home. Additionally, Phoenix has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as the favorite. Dallas has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while their loss to Los Angeles finished below the 150 point Total, the Wings have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. Dallas scored 64 points in their game on Thursday despite making only 39.1% of their shots — yet that was the best shooting effort in their last three games. The Wings did hold the Sparks to just 38.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But Dallas returns home where they hold their guests to just 40.6% shooting. The Wings have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on their home court. Dallas has also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 16 games as an underdog, the Wings have played 13 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 10* WNBA Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Mercury (639) and the Dallas Wings (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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