All Sports Archive |
Date |
Match Up |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Lead Time |
Analysis |
01-06-20 |
Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
17-27 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Lending Tree Bowl between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (279) and the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (280). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (8-5) has won six of their last seven games after winning the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 7th with their 26-21 upset victory over Central Michigan as a 5.5-point underdog. Lafayette (10-3) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game on December 7th with their 45-38 loss at Appalachian State as a 5-point underdog. This game is being played at Land Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The RedHawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a pint spread victory. Miami (OH) has also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning at least four of their last five games. And while the RedHawks have only forced one turnover in each of their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not forcing more than one turnover in two straight contests. Miami has a better defense than their numbers suggest — those statistics are skewed a bit from a difficult non-conference schedule that included road games at Ohio State, Iowa, and Cincinnati. The RedHawks will look to run the ball to control the Time of Possession — they averaged 38 rushing attempts per game while running on over 63% of their offensive snaps. But Miami averages only 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking just 122nd in the nation by averaging 305.9 total YPG. The RedHawks average -84 YPG below their opponent’s season defensive average. The Ragin’ Cajuns have a good defense that allowed only 19.9 PPG which was 20th best in the nation. It will be particularly difficult for freshman quarterback Brett Gabbert to throw on the Lafayette defense that is 16th in the nation by allowing just 193.8 passing YPG. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least four of their last five games. Lafayette did generate 513 yards of offense in their loss to the Mountaineers — but they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Ragin’ Cajuns have scored at least 31 points in seven straight games — but they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in four straight contests. Lafayette has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored in the 10.5 to 21 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. With the RedHawks scoring only 18.5 PPG when away from home, they will only need to slow down the Ragin’ Cajuns offense a bit to keep this game below the number. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Lending Tree Bowl between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (279) and the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-20 |
Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 46 |
|
17-9 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (147) and the Philadelphia Eagles (148). THE SITUATION: Seattle (11-5) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-21 loss at home to San Francisco as a 3.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (9-7) has won four straight games with their 34-17 win at New York against the Giants as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 52 of their last 74 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Philly is riddled with injuries at wide receiver and their offensive line — and they will be without their best linemen in Lane Johnson for this game along with guard Brandon Books who was put onto Injured Reserve earlier this week. The Eagles have resorted to sinking-and-dunking their way to manufacture yardage - but this should be a bit easier to prepare for in the playoffs given the structural weaknesses of this Philadelphia offense at this points. The Eagles are scoring only 21.0 PPG — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games at home Under the Total. Philadelphia has also played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as the dog. Additionally, Philly has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs — and the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 home games in the playoffs. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing their last two games at home. Pete Carroll’s teams have also played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total after aa narrow loss by 6 points or less. The Seahawks are also marred by injuries to their offense with their top three running backs out the season along with their best offensive lineman in left tackle Duane Brown. Seattle has scored only 21.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 333.3 total YPG which is -4.0 PPG and -41.1 YPG below their season average. The Seahawks have started slow in their last two games as well — they trailed by a 17-7 score at home to Arizona two weeks ago before failing to score in the first half last week to the 49ers. Carroll’s teams have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half of two straight games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the playoffs as a favorite. Seattle has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs when laying the points.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of a November 24th meeting between these two teams in Philadelphia where the Seahawks won by a 17-9 score in windy conditions. It will be windy in this game as well which limited Wilson’s deep passing game the first time around. These two teams have now played 4 straight Unders. 10* NFL Seattle-Philadelphia NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (147) and the Philadelphia Eagles (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-20 |
Vikings v. Saints OVER 47 |
Top |
26-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (145) and the New Orleans Saints (146). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-6) has lost two straight games with their 21-19 loss to Chicago at home last week as a 5-point underdog. New Orleans (13-3) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-10 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. And while Minnesota lost those two games despite being at home, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing their last two games at home. Now the Vikings go back on the road where they are scoring 26.5 PPG while averaging 375.7 total YPG which is +22.2 net YPG above their season average. Minnesota has played 5 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The good news for the Vikings is that they expect to get back running back Dalvin Cook for this game after missing time (and rested) with his shoulder injury. But Minnesota may be forced to abandon the run game if they fall behind by multiple scores in this contest. The Vikings have been vulnerable in their pass coverage with opposing quarterbacks posting a Passer Rating of 99.7 with clean pockets which was just 16th in the league. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes has been torched this season with opposing quarterbacks completing 80% of their passes against them. Ever since their 26-9 loss at home to Atlanta on November 10th, the Saints have been dynamite on offense as they have scored at least 26 points in all seven games while scoring at least 34 points in each of their last four contests. Quarterback Drew Brees has a sensational 15:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those last four games — and he is completing 75.9% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and a Passer Rating of 125.9 since Week 11. Furthermore, since Brees’ return in Week Eight after missing five games earlier to injury, New Orleans has ranked 3rd in the NFL in Expected Points Adder per play. The emergence of tight end of Jared Cook as a viable deep threat has made a big difference. Cook has six catches of at least 20 yards since Week Eleven. But the defense has been a concern for this team since they put defensive linemen Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport on Injured Reserve. After ranking 7th in the NFL with 29.3% pressure the quarterback rate, that number has dropped to just a 23.7% QB pressure rate over their last three games without both players which is 18th in the league. The Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a blowout win of at least four touchdowns over an NFC South rival — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after winning and covering the point spread in three straight games as the favorite. New Orleans is scoring 28.4 PPG at home while averaging 420.4 total YPG — and the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games at home. The Saints have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total in the playoffs.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 11 meetings Over the Total. New Orleans is clicking on offense — but look for the Vikings to resort to their passing game to keep up. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (145) and the New Orleans Saints (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-04-20 |
Titans v. Patriots OVER 43.5 |
|
20-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (143) and the New England Patriots (144). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-7) clinched the final spot in the AFC playoffs last Sunday with their 35-14 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite. New England (12-4) looks to rebound from their 27-24 upset loss to Miami at home last week as a 17.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread win. The fortunes of this Tennessee team changed in Week Seven when head coach Matt Vrabel turned to Ryan Tannehill as his starting quarterback. Since that game, Tannehill has led an offense that averages 6.94 Yards-Per-Play which is best in the NFL over that span. The Titans also averaged 406.2 total YPG since Tannehill became the starting quarterback which was 3rd best in the league. Tannehill’s Passer Rating of 117.5 leads the NFL. Tennessee stays on the road where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Titans have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Titans have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog. New England surrendered 389 yards to the Dolphins in their losing effort last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Patriots have allowed 324.0 total YPG over their last three games which is +49.1 net YPG above their season average. New England has also scored a healthy 27.3 PPG over their last three games. Additionally, the Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a game at home where both teams scored at least 24 points. Moving forward, New England has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the playoffs — and they have played 9 of their last 10 playoff games Over the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against AFC opponents — and the Titans have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against AFC foes. Additionally, these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total when playing in Foxborough. 10* NFL Tennessee-New England CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (143) and the New England Patriots (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-04-20 |
Bills v. Texans UNDER 44 |
Top |
19-22 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (141) and the Houston Texans (142). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-6) enters the playoffs having lost their last two games along with three of the last four games with their 13-6 loss at home to the New York Jets last Sunday as a 1.5-point underdog. Houston (10-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-14 loss at home to Tennessee as a 10-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Buffalo plays outstanding defense — they rank 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 16.2 PPG and they rank 3rd in the league by giving up just 298.2 total YPG. But the issue for this team is scoring as they average just 19.6 PPG — and they have managed to score only 13.3 PPG in their last three games. The Bills go on the road where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, Houston has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Texans will be without wide receiver Will Fuller for this contests who has been downgraded to doubtful with his groin injury. Fuller plays a critical role in this offense with his speed giving Houston the ability to stretch the field. In their 325 passing plays with Fuller on the field, the Texans averaged 7.0 yards per passing plays with 31 plays that gained at least 20 yards — but in their 303 passing plays without Fuller, they averaged just 5.8 yards per play with just 17 plays gaining at least 20 yards. Houston has played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents — and the Texans have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (141) and the Houston Texans (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-02-20 |
SE Missouri State v. Austin Peay OVER 142 |
Top |
63-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (669) and the Austin Peay Governors (670). THE SITUATION: SE Missouri State (4-9) snapped their five-game losing streak on Sunday with their 74-59 win over Missouri Baptist. Austin Peay (6-7) has lost two of their last three games with their 78-48 loss at Georgia on Monday as a 13-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Governors shot just 26.6% from the field in their loss to the Bulldogs — but they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to make at least 33% of their shots in their last game. Austin Peay has also played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, the Governors have play 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 50 points in their last game. Austin Peay returns home where they are shooting 52.5% from the field which has translated into 90.6 PPG in their five games on their home court. The Governors have an effective field goal percentage of 59.2% at home which is the 27th best mark in the nation. Austin Peay has played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total at home — and they have also played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Governors do struggle on the defensive end of the court as they have allowed five of their last six opponents make at least 50.7% of their shots. Over their last five games, Austin Peay is allowing 75.6 PPG with those five opponents shooting 51.3%. SE Missouri State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. And while the Redhawks have only covered the point spread once in their last five boarded games, they have then played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. SE Missouri State opens conference play having played 25 of their last 36 games Over the Total against Ohio Valley foes. They have also played 10 of their last 14 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Redhawks are allowing their home hosts to make 47.3% of their shots — and they have also allowed their last five opponents to shoot 47.4% from the field.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that struggle on defense with SE Missouri State ranking 276th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and Austin Peay ranking 321st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (669) and the Austin Peay Governors (670). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-01-20 |
Michigan v. Alabama OVER 60 |
|
16-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Citrus Bowl between the Michigan Wolverines (263) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (264). THE SITUATION: Michigan (9-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on November 30th with their 56-27 loss at home to Ohio State as a 9-point underdog. Alabama (10-2) looks to rebound from their 48-45 upset loss at Auburn as a 3.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wolverines may have a defense ranked 7th in the nation by allowing just 292.8 total YPG but they were exposed by the Buckeyes who torched them for 577 yards of offense. Michigan has played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Wolverines have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. This Michigan offense did begin to click in the second half of their game at Penn State under first-year offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. The Wolverines have scored 36.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging 438.7 total YPG which is +36.6 YPG above their season average. Michigan has played 4 straight games Over the Total as an underdog. Alabama generated 515 yards of offense in their loss to the Tigers with quarterback Mac Jones completed 26 of 39 passes for 335 yards with four touchdown passes and another 32 yards rushing. Frankly, the Tide should have defeated Auburn that day (our CFB Game of the Year, dammit) with a comedy of officiating errors, fluke plays and two defensive touchdowns by the Tigers all playing crucial roles in the loss. This Alabama remains loaded even without Tua Tagovailoa healthy — Jones led this offense just fine. The Over is 8-3-1 in the Tide’s last 12 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Alabama has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC. Furthermore, the Over is 21-7-2 in the Tide’s last 30 games played on a neutral field as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Alabama has played 7 of their last 8 bowl games Over the Total. Michigan has played 4 straight bowl games Over the Total. Expect a higher scoring game. 10* CFB Citrus Bowl ABC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the Citrus Bowl between the Michigan Wolverines (263) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-19 |
Georgia State v. Wyoming UNDER 49 |
Top |
17-38 |
Loss |
-119 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Arizona Bowl between the Georgia State Panthers (259) and the Wyoming Cowboys (260). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (7-5) stumbles into this bowl game having lost three of their last four games after their 38-10 loss at Georgia Southern as a 6.5-point underdog back on November 30th. Wyoming (7-5) has also lost three of their last four games with their 20-6 loss at the Air Force as a 13.5-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Tuscon.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. And while Georgia State did not commit a turnover in their loss to the Eagles, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the total after not committing a turnover in their last game. The Panthers’ offense slowed down after the injury to quarterback Dan Ellington during the ninth game of the season. He had rushed for 603 yards through the first-half of that game against Louisiana-Monroe before suffering what turned out to be a torn ACL. In his last three starts, Ellington rushed for -5 yards overall which dramatically impacted the Georgia State offense as they averaged only 157 rushing YPG over their last final three games which was a far cry from their 275 rushing YPG before his injury. Over their last three games, the Panthers scored only 21.7 PPG while averaging just 332.7 total YPG with both those numbers -10.7 PPG and -112.2 total YPG below their season average. Georgia State also scored only 25.7 PPG while averaging 401.5 total YPG away from home which was -6.7 PPG and -45.4 YPG below their season average. The Panthers have played 5 straight games Under the Total in December. Georgia State has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. The Panthers will have difficulties moving the ball against this Cowboys defense the ranks 11th in the nation by allowing only 17.8 PPG. Wyoming has an outstanding run defense that allows only 99.4 rushing YPG which is 6th in the FBS. They held their opponents to -73 YPG below their season average on offense this season. They have held their last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 330.7 YPG. The Under is 19-7-1 in the Cowboys’ last 27 games after a loss — and the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Wyoming has seen the Under go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game — and they have played 7 straight Unders after failing to score at least 20 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 11 straight games Under the Total after a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. Wyoming has their own issues at QB after redshirt freshman Sean Chambers suffered a season-ending knee injury. Chambers was effective with his legs as he averaged 6.7 YPC which accounted for 567 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Redshirt sophomore Tyler Vander Waal was ineffective in his absence under center with things being so bad that he decided to enter the transfer portal after the Air Force game. That leaves little-used freshman Levi Williams as the Cowboys’ quarterback for this game. Wyoming has scored only 14.7 PPG while averaging just 280.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Cowboys were a much better team at home where they were 6-1 in the high altitude air in Laramie. But this team was just 1-5 on the road where they only scored 18.3 PPG while averaging only 294.5 total YPG. They managed just 225 yards of offense between Vander Waal and Williams against the Falcons — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Wyoming’s main source of offense will be behind running back Xavavian Valladay who rushed for 1061 yards this season. Between Valladay’s running and the Cowboys’ defense, this game should move quickly. The Under is 18-7-1 in Wyoming’s last 26 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Arizona Bowl between the Georgia State Panthers (259) and the Wyoming Cowboys (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-19 |
Virginia v. Florida OVER 54 |
Top |
28-36 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Virginia Cavaliers (251) and the Florida Gators (252). THE SITUATION: Virginia (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 62-17 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game where they were 29-point underdogs back on December 7th. Florida (10-2) has won three straight games with their 40-17 win over Florida State as a 17-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Virginia has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. This is potent offense in the fourth season under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Virginia was 42nd in the nation by averaging 32.4 PPG. They are led by senior quarterback Bryce Perkins who led the ACC by averaging 304.6 total YPG from his passing and running. He completed 27 of 43 passes for 266 yards against Clemson while adding another 58 rushing with his legs. Over their last three games, the Cavaliers have averaged 459.3 total YPG which is +69.0 net YPG above their season average. The problem for this Cavs team has been the deterioration of their play on defense. Virginia allowed only 281 total YPG in their first eight games — but injuries contributed to them surrendering 481 YPG over their last final five contests. The Cavaliers lost two starters in their secondary, senior cornerback Bryce Hall and junior safety Brenton Nelson, to season-ending injuries. Clemson racked up 619 yards of offense against Virginia with 211 of those yards coming on the ground. The Cavaliers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after surrendering at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after giving up at least 200 rushing yards in their last contest. Over their last three games, Virginia has allowed 39.7 PPG along with 498.0 total YPG. The Cavs have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in bowl games. Florida has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have seen the Over go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread win. The Gators held the Seminoles to just 250 yards of offense in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 total yards in their last game. The Florida offense saw a season-ending injury early on to incumbent quarterback Feleipe Franks but the offense raised their level of play under the direction of junior Kyle Trask who threw 24 touchdown passes to just six interceptions in his eleven games. Over their last three games, the Gators scored 39.7 PPG while averaging 471.0 total YPG. They outgained Florida State by +217 net yards on the heels of outgaining Missouri by +130 net yards — and not only have they then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +125 net yards.
FINAL TAKE: The Gators ranked 9th in the nation by allowing just 299.0 total YPG — but that number skyrocketed by +78.8 net YPG in their six games on the road. Florida has played 4 straight games Over the Total in December. 25* CFB New Year’s Day Six Bowl Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Virginia Cavaliers (251) and the Florida Gators (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-19 |
49ers v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 |
|
26-21 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (12-3) has won two of their last three games with their 34-31 win over the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Saturday night. Seattle (11-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 27-13 upset loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point favorite lat Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Much is at stake in this game with the winner taking the NFC West crown with the loser taking the 5th seed in the playoffs and a date on the road next week. If the 49ers win this game, they also secure the top seed in the NFC side of the playoff bracket. With the stakes so high, expect a shootout between two teams that have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Over the Total. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. San Francisco has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers have also played three straight Overs with all three games seeing at least 51 combined points scored — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Niners play on defense has collapsed since the injury of the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander. After holding their opponents to just 11 PPG in their first seven contests, they have allowed their last eight opponents to average 26.5 PPG. This defense has become even more banged up as the season goes on with this unit now missing defensive lineman Dee Ford and safety Jaquiski Tartt. The Niners have allowed their last three opponents to score 35.3 PPG while averaging 383.3 total YPG which is -105.9 net YPG above their defensive season average. San Francisco surrendered 395 total yards to the Rams last week with 323 of those yards coming in the air. The 49ers have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing at least 300 passing yards in their last contest. Now after playing their last two games at home, San Francisco goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The 49ers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in December — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as the favorite. And in their last 4 games against fellow NFC West opponents, San Francisco has played all 4 games Over the Total. Seattle has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against NFC West foes. The Seahawks have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 23 of their last 33 home games Over the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Seattle is a M*A*S*H unit right now with their stable of running backs decimated by injuries and left tackle Duane Brown out with a bicep injury. The Seahawks had to resort to signing former players Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin off the street to serve as the running backs this week. While this is not ideal, if there is one position (outside of kicker) where a team could sign a player off the street and still see success that week, it is at running back — and both players are familiar with the playbook already. Frankly, the only way that Seattle can stay competitive in this game is in a higher-scoring game given the sorry state of their defense. The Seahawks rank 26th in the NFL by allowing 380.5 total YPG — and they allow their visitors to score 29.0 PPG while seeing them average 385.0 total YPG. Over their last three games, Seattle has allowed their opponents to score 26.3 PPG while generating 427.0 total YPG. The Cardinals gained 412 yards against them last week in the rematch of their earlier NFC West clash — and the Seahawks have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Seattle stays at home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog overall.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle won the first meeting between these two teams by a 27-24 score in overtime as a 6.5-point underdog — and the Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 10* NFL San Francisco-Seattle NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-19 |
Browns v. Bengals UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
23-33 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (103) and the Cincinnati Bengals (104). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (6-9) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 31-15 loss to Baltimore last week as a 9.5-point underdog. Cincinnati (1-14) has lost three games in a row with their 38-35 upset loss at Miami as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Who knows how rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens will call plays this afternoon in his likely last opportunity to fulfill his lifelong fantasy of being both a head coach and offensive coordinator calling plays. Kitchens has been an utter failure this season with his lack of leadership best displayed in his unwillingness to defer the play-calling responsibilities to offensive coordinator Todd Monken after the Browns struggled early in the season. Kitchens had never even been an offensive coordinator when last season started — and he is unlikely to ever be a head coach or offensive coordinator ever again (at least in the NFL). Kitchens may use this game to dig deep into his drawings book of unused plays he has been compiling throughout his long traveled career as a journeyman assistant coach. But, I suspect he will be compelled to draw up plenty of running plays to feed the rock to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt for a delusional Hail Mary pass to keep his job when facing the league’s worst statistical run defense — and that is a good formula for the Under. As it is, the Browns have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. And while Cleveland managed only 241 yards of offense last week, the Under is then 42-20-2 in their last 64 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Browns are averaging just 322.3 YPG over their last three games — and they score only 19.3 PPG on the road. Cleveland needs to tighten things up on the defensive side of the ball after allowing 69 combined points over their last two games. The Browns have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total allowing at least 30 points in two straight contests. And while Cleveland allowed the Ravens to average 6.77 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.0 YPP. Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss — and the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after a loss. And while the Bengals went into halftime last week trailing the Dolphins by a 21-6 score, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after trailing by at least two touchdowns at halftime of their last game. Cincinnati did generate 430 yards last week — but the Under is 10-3-2 in their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals return home where they are scoring only 16.4 PPG. The Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Under is also 12-3-1 in Cincinnati’s last 16 games as an underdog. And in their last 16 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Under is 10-4-2.
FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have clinched the number one pick in the 2020 NFL draft — but they will be motivated to avenge a 27-19 loss in Cleveland back on December 8th as a 6.5-point underdog. Cincinnati has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (103) and the Cincinnati Bengals (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-19 |
Clemson v. Ohio State OVER 62.5 |
Top |
29-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the Clemson Tigers (243) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (244) in the College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Clemson (13-0) remained undefeated this season with their 62-17 win over Virginia as a 29-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 7th. Ohio State (13-0) won the Big Ten Championship that same day with their 34-21 win over Wisconsin as a 16.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers displayed the balance on offense that will make it very hard for any defense to slow them down this postseason. In generating 619 yards of offense against the Cavaliers, Clemson rushed for 211 yards while adding another 408 yards in the air. The Tigers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Sophomore quarterback Trevor Lawrence leads a loaded offense that is 4th in the nation that scores 46.5 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the nation by averaging 547.7 total YPG. Lawrence has not thrown an interception since October 19th while producing the highest Pro Football Focus quarterback grade over the last four weeks of the regular season in all of college football. Since Week Nine of the regular season, Lawrence leads the nation with 20 touchdown passes while averaging 11.1 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt which is also best in the nation. His 214 Efficiency Rating over that span is also best in the nation. Where Lawrence has improved from leading the Tigers to the national championship as a freshman was with his mobility — he rushed for 407 yards on 77 carries while reaching the end zone seven times. Over their last three games, Clemson is scoring 50.7 PPG. And while the Buckeyes are 2nd in the nation by allowing just 148.1 passing YPG, the Tigers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total under head coach Dabo Swinney against teams who do not allow more than 150 passing YPG. Ohio State generated 492 yards against the Badgers in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes averaged 39.3 PPG over their last three games along with 495.3 total YPG against three of the best defenses in the nation against Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Their win against the Badgers three weeks ago finished below the 58 point total — but the Buckeyes have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after coming off a game that finished below the number. And while Ohio State has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Sophomore quarterback Justin Fields leads the Buckeyes offense that leads the nation by scoring 48.7 PPG — and they rank 5th in the nation by generating 531.0 total YPG. Fields has completed 67.5% of his passes while posting an incredible 40:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Like Lawrence, Fields can extend drives with his legs as he rushed for 471 yards with 10 touchdowns. I see more touchdowns than field goals from both teams given the wealth of weapons on offense. Ohio State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the rare occasions they are an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The defensive numbers of both teams have come mostly against soft competition. The Clemson defense was not tested this season — the Buckeyes will offer their most difficult challenge by far. Ohio State allowed 12.5 PPG this season — but they surrendered 21.0 PPG over their last four games. The Buckeyes’ have not played a team with as much speed as the Tigers. I am expecting both teams to reach the 30-point threshold in what should be a shootout. 25* CFB Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the Clemson Tigers (243) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (244). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-19 |
Oklahoma v. LSU UNDER 76.5 |
|
28-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (241) and the LSU Tigers (242) in the Peach Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (12-1) has won five straight games after defeating Baylor as a 9-point favorite by a 30-23 score on December 7th in the Big 12 Championship Game. LSU (13-0) remained undefeated this season by defeating Georgia by a 37-10 score as a 7.5-point favorite to win the SEC Championship on December 7th. This game will be played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sooners have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Oklahoma has only covered the point spread once in their last six games and twice in their last nine contests — and not only have they then played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games but they have also played 9 straight Unders when failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. This Sooners team has improved on defense under first-year defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. After allowing 33.3 PPG along with 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last season, Oklahoma improved by giving up just 24.5 PPG along with only 5.3 YPP this year. The Sooners’ defense was 25th in the nation by allowing 330.6 total YPG fueled by a pass defense that limited their opponents to just 198.5 passing YPG which was 23rd in the nation. And this is a unit that will be very familiar facing the spread passing attack that the Tigers’ installed this season. Over their last three games, Oklahoma allowed only 21.0 PPG along with just 268.0 total YPG. The Sooners are going to run the football to burn time off the clock while keeping the powerful LSU offense off the field. They controlled the clock for 36:36 minutes in the Big 12 Championship Game which helped them limit Baylor to just 265 yards of offense. Oklahoma has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games on a neutral field Under the Total with the number set at 63 or higher. The Under is also 18-3-1 in the Sooners’ last 22 games in December which includes them playing eight of their last nine December bowl games Under the Total. And in their last 13 games against teams from the SEC, the game finished Under the Total 10 times. LSU has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over an SEC rival. And while that 27 point margin was the closest game the Tigers have played in their last three contests, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after registering at least three straight wins by at least 17 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after two straight double-digit victories over conference rivals. LSU did generate 481 yards against the Bulldogs defense — and that was the lowest yardage mark in their last six games. The Tigers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in four straight games. LSU has scored at least 37 points in five straight games as well — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in four straight contests. The Tigers defense has stepped up as well as of late after holding Texas A&M to just 7 points before limiting Georgia to just 10 points and a mere 286 total yards. Over their last three games, the Bulldogs have allowed only 12.3 PPG along with just 253.0 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: LSU has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral field. The Tigers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. 10* CFB Oklahoma-LSU ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (241) and the LSU Tigers (242) in the Peach Bowl College Football Semifinals. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-19 |
Iowa State v. Notre Dame UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
9-33 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Camping World Bowl between the Iowa State Cyclones (237) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (238). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (7-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped to end their regular season with their 27-17 upset loss at Kansas State as a 4-point favorite on November 30th. Notre Dame (10-2) has won five straight games with their 45-24 win at Stanford as a 17.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game will be played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cyclones were crushed on the ground by the Wildcats in that game by allowing 231 rushing yards — but they have then seen the Under go 44-19-2 in their last 65 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Iowa State only allowed 288 total yards in that game with Kansas State managing to pass for just 57 yards — and the Under is then 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last contest. The Cyclones managed only 236 yards of offense in that game — and they have averaged just 397.0 total YPG over their last three contests which is over 60 yards below their 458.7 total YPG average. The Under is 9-2-1 in Iowa State’s last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-1 in the Cyclones’ last 9 games against teams outside the Big 12. And Iowa State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games played on a neutral field as an underdog. The Under is 6-0-1 in the Cyclones’ last 7 bowl game appearances — and the Under is a decisive 18-7-2 in their last 27 games played on field turf. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. The Fighting Irish have also played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Irish have an outstanding defense that ranks 14th in the nation by allowing just 18.7 PPG — and their defense is 3rd in the FBS by allowing only 163.7 passing YPG. After losing to Michigan, Notre Dame only allowed more than 20 points just once in their last five games. They held their opponents to -86 YPG below their season offensive average — and they also ranked 7th in the nation by Expected Points Added per play. The Irish offense did slow down when playing away from South Bend as they scored just 29.8 PPG while averaging just 367.6 total YPG in their last five road games which was over a touchdown less along with over 60 yards less than their 37.1 PPG and 429.4 total YPG averages. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Irish have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral field as the favorite. 25* CFB ABC-TV Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (237) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (238). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-19 |
Memphis v. Penn State OVER 59.5 |
|
39-53 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Cotton Bowl between the Memphis Tigers (239) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (240). THE SITUATION: Memphis (12-1) has won seven straight games with their 29-24 win over Cincinnati as a 9-point favorite in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game on December 7th. Penn State (10-2) has won two of their last three games with their 27-6 win over Rutgers on November 30th as a 38.5-point favorite. This game is being played in AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. This team saw their fourth-year head coach Mike Norvell leave the team to take the Florida State job but with offensive line coach, Ryan Silverfield, taking over, the emphasis of this team should continue to be on the offensive side of the football. Led by junior quarterback Brady White, Memphis was 8th in the FBS by averaging 40.5 PPG — and they were 10th in the nation by averaging 480.7 total YPG. This offense was even more potent on the road where they averaged 43.0 PPG along with 524.5 total YPG in their six games away from home. The Tigers also have an elite return game with their special teams which generates hidden yardage that does not show up on the boxscore but puts White into better initial field position. Memphis has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Tigers have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. And in their last 12 games as an underdog, Memphis has played 10 of these games Over the Total. Penn State has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Quarterback Sean Clifford did not play in that game against the Scarlet Knights — but he should be close to 100% for this game with head coach James Franklin claiming he was a game-time decision who could have played if necessary in that game. The Nittany Lions also lost a coach with offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne leaving to take the head coaching job at Old Dominion — but the offense should be fine with Franklin still overseeing everything for this team. I worry about the Penn State pass defense in this matchup — they surrendered 232.5 passing YPG which was 76th in the nation. Before facing the anemic Rutgers offense, the Nittany Lions had surrendered 86 combined points in their previous three games — and they have allowed their last three opponents including the Scarlet Knights to average 420.7 total YPG. Penn State has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams outside the Big Ten.
FINAL TAKE: The Nittany Lions have played 4 straight games Over the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 4 of their last 5 bowl games Over the Total. Group of Five schools have won three of their five New Year’s Six Bowl games — so even if Penn State takes a big lead, the potent Memphis passing attack should keep them scoring points throughout this game. 10* CFB Cotton Bowl ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the Cotton Bowl between the Memphis Tigers (239) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-27-19 |
USC v. Iowa OVER 52 |
|
24-49 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (233) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (234) in the Military Bowl. THE SITUATION: USC (8-4) has also won three straight games with their 52-35 win over UCLA as a 12.5-point favorite back on November 23rd as a 12.5-point favorite. Iowa (9-3) has won three straight games with their 27-24 win over Nebraska as a 4-point favorite back on November 29th. This game is being played on a neutral field at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. USC generated a whopping 643 yards against the Bruins in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. USC is loaded on offense behind freshman QB Kedon Slovis and three uber-talented wide receivers that ranks 17th in the nation by averaging 463.7 total YPG. Iowa’s defense ranks 11th in the nation by allowing just 304.3 total YPG but they only faced three quarterbacks that ranked in the top-twenty in pass efficiency. In those three games, the Hawkeyes surrendered 441 total YPG. The Iowa offense is led by senior quarterback Nate Stanley who will be using this opportunity to bolster his NFL draft prospects. He will be facing a suspect USC defense that has been riddled by injuries all season. The Trojans are 84th in the nation by allowing 415.4 total YPG while also ranking 99th in the FBS by surrendering 248.9 passing YPG. USC allows their opponents to average +13 YPG above their season average — and they have allowed their last four opponents to average 34 PPG. The Trojans rank 111th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate on offense — and the Hawkeyes faced only one team (Rutgers) with a worse opponent Success Rate all season. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Hawkeyes’ last 5 games against teams outside the Big Ten.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa has played 4 of their last 5 bowl games Over the Total. USC has seen the Over go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Holiday Bowl ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (233) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (234). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-27-19 |
Manchester City v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 3 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (12W-2D-4L) has won two straight English Premier League matches with their 3-1 win over Leicester City last Sunday. Wolverhampton (6W-9D-3L) comes off a 2-1 win at Norwich City last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wolves have scored in seventeen straight EPL matches so the chances are very good they will get on the board against the reigning EPL champions this afternoon. Wolverhampton has played three straight games where at least three combined goals were scored with them scoring five times while conceding five times during that span. And while this team has been know for their defensive prowess, they have only produced one clean sheet in their last ten matches. Wolverhampton has also scored four goals in their three home matches against a Power Six side this season — but they have surrender a whopping eight goals in those three home matches. Overall, the Wolves are 8th in the league with 26 goals. Manchester City leads the EPL with their 50 goals scored. They have scored three goals in each of their last two matches. The Citizens have also seen at least three combined goals scored in nine straight matches this season. Man City has taken a step back on defense this season as they have surrendered 20 goals already which is just 4th best. They have only produced one clean sheet in their last eight matches. Man City should have their star midfielder, Kevin DeBruyne available for this game after he suffered a knock last week. And while Sergio Aguero will not start this afternoon, he is working himself back into game shape after suffering an injury and might be called on as a sub. The Citizens have more than a capable second forward in Brazilian star Gabriel Jesus to use as their striker with KDB and Raheem Sterling also potent scoring threats. Man City has scored 41 goals in their thirteen matches against non-Power Six opponents. And in their seven road matches against non-Power Six foes, Man City is averaging 3.0 Goals-Per-Game while conceding more than one goal per game.
FINAL TAKE: Man City will have revenge on their mind after losing at home to the Wolves back on October 6th by a 2-0 score. They will not be blanked again. I think three combined goals is the worst case scenario with an outstanding chance that Man City scores at least three times (or Wolverhampton scores at least twice). 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-19 |
Bucks v. 76ers OVER 220.5 |
Top |
109-121 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 2:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (525) and the Philadelphia 76ers (526). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (27-4) has won three straight games with their 117-89 win over Indiana on Sunday as an 8.5-point favorite. Philadelphia (22-10) snapped a three-game losing streak by winning their last two games after their 125-109 win over Detroit on Monday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks win over the Pacers did not reach the 220 point total — but they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished below the number. Milwaukee shot just 42.3% from the field which was their second-lowest field goal percentage all season. The Bucks are still second in the NBA in Offensive Rating — and they lead the league in pace by averaging 105.2 possessions per contest. Milwaukee is scoring 119.8 PPG on the road while making a robust 48.1% of their shots. Their victory over the Pacers came on the heels of a 123-102 win in New York over the Knicks — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after two straight double-digit wins while also playing 13 of their last 16 road games Over the Total after winning two straight games by 10 or more points. Milwaukee has also played 34 of their last 52 games Over the Total after two straight victories by at least 20 points. The Bucks will be without point guard Eric Bledsoe for the sixth straight game — and they will miss his ball-hawking defensive skills. Milwaukee is allowing their last five opponents (without Bledsoe) to make 42.9% of their shots which is a bit higher than their 41.4 opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. Now the Bucks go back on the road where the Over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Milwaukee does a fantastic job of protecting the rim with either Brook or Robin Lopez on the floor with Giannis Antetokounmpo — but this does come at the expense of allowing their opponents to launch 3s. The Bucks’ opponents are taking 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc which is the third-highest mark in the league. Philadelphia is 9th in the NBA by making 36.3% of their 3-point shots. The 76ers are scoring 110.8 PPG on their home court on 47.8% shooting from the field. Philly has played 4 straight games Over the Total at home — and the Over is 11-4-1 in their last 16 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Sixers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home as an underdog. But defense has been an issue for this team as they have allowed their last seven opponents to score at least 109 PPG. The Pistons were the second opponent in their last three games to nail at least 51.2% of their shots from the field. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams since their 128-122 scoring fest in Philadelphia back on April 4th that the Bucks won. These two teams have played 5 straight meetings Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 encounters in Philadelphia Over the Total. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (525) and the Philadelphia 76ers (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-23-19 |
Packers v. Vikings UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
23-10 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (11-3) has won three in a row with their 21-13 win over Chicago as a 4-point favorite last week. Minnesota (10-4) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 39-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Green Bay has an improved defense this season that is 8th in the NFL by allowing only 20.2 PPG. Over their last three games, the Packers have allowed just 13.7 PPG along with only 337.3 total YPG. Some of the help to the defense has been a different style of play under first-year head coach Matt LeFleur as the team is running the ball more which keeps their defense rested. But Green Bay is averaging only 336.6 total YPG as a result which is 21st in the NFL. When the Packers play away from Lambeau Field, they are scoring just 20.8 PPG while averaging only 271.0 total YPG. Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. While LeFleur’s emphasis on running the football may have made this team a more consistent winner, he is also very predictable with his game planning. Not including the first quarter (with those initial scripted plays), quarterback Aaron Rodgers is completing less than 60% of his passes with only four touchdown passes over his last eighteen (non-first quarter) quarters. Those unimpressive numbers suggest LeFleur is getting out-schemed as the game moves forward. Furthermore, the Packers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games against NFC North opponents, Green Bay has played all 7 of these games Under the Total. Minnesota has played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total against fellow teams from the NFC North. The Vikings have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by at least 14 points — and they have played 40 of their last 57 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Minnesota is undermanned tonight at the running back position with both Delvin Cook and Alexander Mattison not playing because of injuries. Over their last three games, the Vikings are averaging just 350.7 total YPG which is -21.9 YPG below their season average. Minnesota still has a great defense that ranks 6th in the NFL by allowing just 18.5 PPG. The Vikings defense is even better when playing at home where they are holding their opponents to just 14.2 PPG along with only 314.7 total YPG. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-19 |
Chiefs v. Bears UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
26-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (479) and the Chicago Bears (478). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (10-4) has won four straight games with their 23-3 win over Denver last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Chicago (7-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week in their 21-13 loss at Green Bay as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home against an AFC West rival. Additionally, Kansas City has played 50 of their last 78 games Under the Total after winning three straight games. And while the Chiefs have covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 gamed Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Kansas City defense has been outstanding over their last four games since their bye week. The Chiefs are allowing only 9.3 PPG in their last four contests which is tops in the NFL — and they are giving up just 287.0 total YPG over those four games which is 5th best in the league. Kansas City is holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 62.6 Passer Rating which is 2nd best in the NFL. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points in their last four games — and they have then played 49 of their last 80 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as the favorite. Chicago has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Bears have also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago did generate 415 total yards against the Packers — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has played better as of late — he averaged 299 passing yards per game over his last four games. But he has put up those numbers against the Detroit, NY Giants, Dallas, and Green Bay defenses so his improved stats should be put into the contest. Trubisky dropped back to throw 53 passes last week — and the Bears have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where they attempted at least 50 passes. Chicago returns home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. The Bears still have an elite level defense as they rank 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.1 PPG — and they rank 8th in the league by giving up just 324.8 total YPG. Chicago’s defense is even tougher at home where they are allowing just 17.1 PPG along with only 299.7 total YPG. The Bears have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: It will be chilly tonight on the south of Chicago in Soldier Field with temperatures dropping to the mid-30s. The Bears have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total in December. Kansas City has played 4 straight games Under the Total in December. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (479) and the Chicago Bears (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-19 |
Rams v. 49ers OVER 44 |
|
31-34 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 44-21 upset loss at Dallas as a 1-point favorite. San Francisco (11-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-22 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least 10 points as a home favorite. San Francisco has allowed 75 combined points over their last two games with injuries on defense playing a significant role in the decline of play on that side of the ball. Losing linebacker Kwon Alexander took away the heart and soul of that unit in his late-October season-ending injury. The 49ers have allowed 25.9 PPG over their last seven games after limiting their first seven opponents to a mere 11 PPG. They have picked off only one pass over those last seven games and they have managed only three sacks over their last three games. San Fran has seen their last two games finish Over the Total — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs. The 49ers stay at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Francisco has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total in December. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 35 points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Now the Rams stay on the road where they have played 30 of their last 46 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Los Angeles offense has picked things up as of late as they are scoring 27.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging 431.0 total YPG. The Rams have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog overall.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams will be looking to avenge a 20-7 loss at home to the 49ers back on October 13th. Todd Gurley did not play in that game which limited their ground attack as well as the credibility of their play-action passes. Los Angles has played 21 of their last 35 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 9 points. 10* NFL LA Rams-San Francisco O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-20-19 |
Magic v. Blazers OVER 217.5 |
|
103-118 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (555) and the Portland Trail Blazers (556). THE SITUATION: Orlando (12-16) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 113-104 loss in Denver on Wednesday as a 9-point underdog. Portland (12-16) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 122-112 win over Golden State as a 9-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Magic have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last contest. Orlando is struggling on the defensive end of the court — they are allowing 113.4 PPG while allowing their opponents to 49.2% shooting over their last five games. The Magic have played four straight Overs — and not only have they played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs but they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Overs. Orlando stays on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total. Portland has played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total at home after a game where at least 225 combined points were scored. The Blazers stay at home where the Over is 27-10-1 in their last 38 contests. The Over is also 11-5-1 in Portland’s last 17 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 45 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range, the game finished Over the Total 29 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Magic has played 4 straight games Over the Total as an underdog. Expect a higher scoring game. Together, these team trends produce our specific 131-38-2 combined angle for this situation. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (555) and the Portland Trail Blazers (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-20-19 |
Kings v. Pacers UNDER 208.5 |
|
105-119 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (539) and the Indiana Pacers (540). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (12-15) has lost two of their last three games with their 110-102 upset loss at Charlotte on Tuesday as a 5.5-point favorite. Indiana (19-9) has won four straight games with their 105-102 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under after a point spread loss. Sacramento has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The 48.1% field goal percentage of the Hornets in that game was the highest shooting mark that the Kings have allowed in their last four games. Over their last five contests, Sacramento is holding their opponents to just 45.2% shooting which is translating into 100.6 PPG — both those marks are far below the 107.0 PPG along with the 46.8% shooting they are allowing overall this seasons. The Kings have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Sacramento has also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 15 of their 20 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 6 points. Indiana has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less. The Pacers have also played 7 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. And while Indiana has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Pacers have played three straight Unders — and they have then paled 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after playing three straight Unders. Indiana has held its last five opponents to just 41.9% shooting from the field. Indiana has stays at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Sacramento has played 27 of their last 41 games Under the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference. The Kings have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against the Pacers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Indiana. 20* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (539) and the Indiana Pacers (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-18-19 |
St. Mary's v. Arizona State UNDER 137 |
Top |
96-56 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (697) and the Arizona State Sun Devils (698). THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (9-2) enters this game coming off an 89-77 win at California as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Arizona State (8-2) has won five games in a row with their 79-59 win over Georgia as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be playing a neutral court at the Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Gaels have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total after a win on the road where they scored at least 85 points. Saint Mary’s made 54.3% of their shots in their game against the Golden Bears which was their second-highest shooting percentage of the season. But the Gaels need to tighten things up on defense after allowing Cal to make 50% of their shots after Dayton made 53.8% of their shots in their previous game. Saint Mary’s has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Additionally, the Gaels have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. And in their last 75 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Under is 50-24-1. Arizona State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Sun Devils have also played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. Arizona State made 49.3% of their shots which was their best shooting mark of the season. The Sun Devils have scored at least 77 points in three straight games — but they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight contests. But now this team travels from Tempe to play this game in Phoenix — and they are making just 43.6% of their shots on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when the favorite — and the Under is 23-9-1 in their last 33 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Hall of Fame Showcase Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (697) and the Arizona State Sun Devils (698). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-17-19 |
Kings v. Hornets UNDER 207 |
|
102-110 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (501) and the Charlotte Hornets (502). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (12-14) has won four of their last five games with their 100-79 win at Golden State on Sunday as a 4.5-point favorite. Charlotte (12-17) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 107-85 loss at Indiana as an 11.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings are coming off their best shooting effort of the season on Sunday as they made 60.3% of their shots from the field. But Sacramento has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. The Under is also 22-9-1 in the Kings’ last 32 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 10 points. Now this team stays on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as the favorite. Furthermore, Sacramento has played 15 of their last 23 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Charlotte is a scrappy team that played their worst defensive game in their last four contests on Sunday by allowing the Pacers to make 45.5% of their shots from the field. The Hornets have still held their last five opponents to just 41.8% shooting which has translated into just 103.4 PPG. Charlotte is no offensive juggernaut either as they have not shot better than 44.7% from the field in six straight games — and they are averaging just 38.8% shooting over their last five games. The Hornets have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Charlotte has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by at least 20 points. Now the Hornets return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total as an underdog. They also have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Sacramento has played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (501) and the Charlotte Hornets (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-19 |
Colts v. Saints UNDER 48 |
Top |
7-34 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (333) and the New Orleans Saints (334). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-7) has lost three straight games with their 38-35 loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. New Orleans (10-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 48-46 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While last week saw 94 combined points scored in a scoring fest between two NFC powers, history is not likely to repeat itself tonight back in the Big Easy. mNot only have the Saints played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game but they have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Drew Brees led an offense that generated 465 yard of offense — but New Orleans has then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where they gained at least 400 yards. Furthermore, the Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 30 points — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 40 points in their last contest. And while New Orleans has scored at least 26 points in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight contests. The Saints offensive line is banged up right now so it may be difficult for them to continue to put up these big offensive numbers. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record overall, New Orleans has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Colts have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing three games in a row. The Indianapolis game plan will be to run the football with a healthy Marlon Mack working behind their great offensive line with the goal of controlling possession and burning time off the clock. The Colts have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 12 of the last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Indianapolis has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, the Colts have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total in December. With the Colts unlikely to have wide receiver T.Y. Hilton tonight with head coach Frank Reich claiming he would only play if he was 100% again, the Indianapolis offense will be limited and unlikely willing to try to get into a shootout after losing in a high-scoring game with the Buccaneers. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (333) and the New Orleans Saints (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-19 |
Bills v. Steelers OVER 36.5 |
|
17-10 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (321) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 24-17 loss at home to Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (8-5) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 23-17 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: We bet numbers — and an Over/Under set in the mid-30s is simply too low in a game between two teams that is expected to be highly competitive between two potential playoff teams. The Steelers have played 34 of their last 54 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. And while the Bills are allowing only 16.3 PPG this season, Pittsburgh has played 30 of their last 45 home games Over the Total against teams who do not allow more than 17 PPG — and they have played 17 of their last 23 home games in the second half of the season against opponents not allowing more than 17 PPG. Furthermore, the Steelers have played 37 of their last 56 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 38 point range — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as the favorite. And while Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then played 16 of their last 23 home games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Additionally, the Steelers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning eight of their last ten games. And while Pittsburgh has played five straight Unders which has helped drive this betting number down, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing five straight Unders. The Steelers’ offense will get a jump start with the return of running back James Conner. Buffalo only managed 209 yards of offense last week while averaging just 3.37 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then played 29 of their last 51 games Over the Total after failing to average at least 4.0 YPP in their last game including playing four of these last six games Over the Total. Buffalo does average 23.0 PPG when playing on the road — and while that is not a huge number, it does look more impressive when confronting a Total below 40. The Bills are conservative on offense given their outstanding defense but they have scored at least 17 points in eleven of their games while reaching at least 20 points in seven of their contests.
FINAL TAKE: Because this is expected to be a close game, the scoring should continue to trickle in during all 60 minutes of this contest — and this logic is supported by an empirical angle that has been 68% effective over the last five seasons. In games involving a team that has won at least three of their last four games now facing a team that has won at least four of their last five games have then finished Over the Total in 55 of these last 81 situations where these conditions applied. 10* NFL Buffalo-Pittsburgh NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (321) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-14-19 |
Thunder v. Nuggets UNDER 205 |
Top |
102-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (563) and the Denver Nuggets (564). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (11-13) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 94-93 loss at Sacramento as a 2-point underdog. Denver (15-8) ended their three-game losing streak on Thursday with their 114-99 win over Portland as an 8-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Thunder have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. Oklahoma City has also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. Now this team stays on the road where they are making only 43.8% of their shots as compared to their 46.5% shooting mark overall. The Thunder have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road. Oklahoma City has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Denver made 47.7% of their shots on Thursday fueled by nailing 18 of their 36 shots from behind the arc — so they are likely to get a visit from the Regression Gods when it comes to their outside shooting. As it is, the Nuggets have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 10 points. Denver has also played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Now this team stays at home where they have played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 14 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Nuggets have played 11 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games played in Denver Under the Total. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (563) and the Denver Nuggets (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-14-19 |
Army v. Navy UNDER 44 |
Top |
7-31 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (303) and the Navy Midshipmen (304). THE SITUATION: Army (5-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped back in their last game back on November 30th in their 52-31 loss at Hawai’i as a 2.5-point underdog. Navy (9-2) has won two straight games after their 56-41 win at Houston as a 9-point favorite back on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Black Knights surrendered 359 passing yards to the Rainbow Warriors in their last game — but they have then played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. Head coach Jeff Monken will have his defense ready to play in this game as Army has played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a bye week. Despite surrendering 492 total yards to Hawai’i, the Black Knights have a good defense that allows only 22.3 PPG and just 337.8 total YPG which ranks 34th and 29th best in the nation. But the struggle for this team may be on the other side of the ball as Army averages just 20.8 PPG along with 338.8 total YPG away from home which is -9.5 PPG and -59.4 YPG below their season average. The Black Knights have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field as an underdog. Furthermore, Army has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Navy surrounded 393 passing yards to the Cougars in their last game — but they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Under is also 19-7-1 in the Midshipmen’s last 27 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Navy thrives with their run defense as they hold their opponents to only 109.7 rushing YPG which is 17th best in the nation. The most rushing yards they allowed all season was against Tulane who ran for 187 yards which was far below their 249.8 rushing YPG which is 13th best in the nation. The Midshipmen have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total in December. They also have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total playing on a neutral field as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 16 meetings Under the Total. With both teams deploying a spread triple option offensive attack, not only is the typical element of surprise gone for these respective offensive attacks who usually face opponents unfamiliar with their unique schemes but they are facing defenses that practice every day against their style. Army won last year’s game by a 17-10 score despite generating only 283 yards of offense with just 59 plays from scrimmage. Navy only had 208 total yards in that game on 54 plays. And in the Black Knights’ 14-13 victory in 2017, they had only 296 yards of offense on 48 plays but they limited the Midshipmen to just 241 total yards on 50 plays. 25* CFB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (303) and the Navy Midshipmen (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-13-19 |
Knicks v. Kings UNDER 210.5 |
Top |
103-101 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between New York Knicks (545) and the Sacramento Kings (546). THE SITUATION: New York (5-20) snapped their ten-game winning streak on Wednesday with their 124-122 win at Golden State as a 4.5-point underdog. Sacramento (11-13) has won their last three games with their 94-93 win over Oklahoma City on Wednesday as a 2-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knicks have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win. New York has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Under is 13-4-1 in New York’s last 18 games when playing with one day of rest. This team has played better defense under interim head coach Mike Miller since management fired David Fizdale. The Knicks have held their last two opponents to 43.3% shooting. New York also made a surprising 47.8% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last seventeen contests. But this is not a strong offensive team — Marcus Morris is their leading scoring. They are still only making 39% of their shots over their last five games — and they are shooting just 41.7% when playing on the road. The Under is 38-18-1 in the Knicks’ last 57 games as an underdog. And in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record, the game finished Under the Total all 4 times. Sacramento has seen the Under go 21-9-1 in their last 31 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Kings stay at home where they ave played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have also played 16 of their last 23 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, Sacramento has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 straight Unders when playing in Sacramento. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between New York Knicks (545) and the Sacramento Kings (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-12-19 |
Jets v. Ravens UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
21-42 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Baltimore Ravens (302). THE SITUATION: New York (5-8) has won four of their last five games with their 22-21 win at home against Miami last week as a 5-point favorite. Baltimore (11-2) has won nine straight games after their 24-17 win at Buffalo last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Baltimore offense leads the NFL by scoring 33.1 PPG — but they have only averaged 22 PPG in their last two contests while generating just 270.4 total YPG. The Ravens have played two outstanding defenses in their last two games against San Francisco and then the Bills last week — but those defenses also provided a blueprint as to how to slow down Lamar Jackson and this unique Baltimore offense. For starters, defenses are having their athletic defensive ends play “cat-and-mouse” with Jackson to not overcommit in their actions to contain the speedy QB in the pocket and force him to pass or run for a shorter gain. Second, pass coverages deploying quarter-quarter-half schemes which are pushing Jackson’s passing options to one side of the field. Lastly, Buffalo began to commit earlier to shifting a few defenders to the other side of the field in response to the Baltimore Escort Motion where a tight end (or wide receiver) goes in motion to offer a run-blocker on the other side of the field. The problem with that Bills’ tactic of shifting defenders before the man-in-motion passes the center will be that the Ravens will eventually reverse that motion and catch defenders moving too quickly to the wrong side. However, I don’t think Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman wastes that wrinkle on the Jets tonight — so the Jets should have some success copy-catting this and these other new defensive strategies. As it is, New York has an outstanding run defense that is 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 78.8 rushing YPG — and they lead the league by holding opposing rushers to use 3.03 Yards-Per-Carry. The Ravens return home where they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. While Jackson gets most of the attention, the Baltimore defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 18.2 PPG and 6th in the league by limiting their opponents to only 314.6 total YPG. The Ravens have also held their last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 253.7 total YPG. The Bills passed for only 105 yards against them last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Baltimore’s defense starts with their outstanding secondary that might have become the best unit in the league with the midseason trade of cornerback Marcus Peters. Not only do strong cover skills help the pass rush, but it also gives defensive coordinator Wink Martindale the freedom to take more chances with the blitz. The Ravens lead the NFL by blitzing on 54.5% of the time — and now they face Sam “I see ghosts” Darnold tonight. In that Monday night game against the Patriots on October 21st when Darnold was caught on mic admitting he was seeing “ghosts” in the backfield against the Patriots blitz, he completed just 8 of 16 passes for only 66 yards with no touchdown passes and three interceptions when facing a blitz. For the season, Darnold ranks 30th of 32 quarterbacks with a 48.2 Passer Rating when facing the blitz. Darnold did complete 20 of 36 passes last week against the Dolphins for 270 yards — but the Jets have played 4 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now New York goes on the road where they are scoring just 15.5 PPG along with averaging just 239.7 total YPG. The Jets have played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. New York’s defense does travel as they are holding their home hosts to just 308.8 total YPG. And in their last three games, the Jets are allowing only 15.3 PPG and just 282.2 total YPG. Additionally, New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: I don’t see the Jets scoring much tonight. Even if the Ravens put up a big number against this good New York defense, head coach John Harbaugh will likely call off the proverbial dogs early in this one with it being played on a short week. Jackson is not 100% with sore quads and getting him to the bench better takes advantage of the extra time off he will have before his next game. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Baltimore Ravens (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-11-19 |
Wisconsin v. Rutgers UNDER 125 |
Top |
65-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (635) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (636). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (5-4) snapped their three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 84-64 win over Indiana as a 2-point underdog. Rutgers (6-3) has lost their last two games with their 77-65 loss at Michigan State as a 14-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Badgers have played 7 straight games Under the Total after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have played 27 of their last 32 games after an upset victory over a Big Ten rival. Wisconsin made 53.6% of their shots in that game which was their best shooting effort of the season. But this Badgers team has struggled to make baskets this season. They are 280th in the nation by making only 30.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Wisconsin is solid with a 52.9% shooting percentage inside the arc (75th in the nation) but they are facing a Scarlet Knights team that is 41st in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 43.1% shooting inside the arc. Now this team goes back on the road where they are scoring a mere 54.7 PPG on low 37% shooting. But Wisconsin is still playing solid defense on the road as they are holding their home hosts to just 63.7 PPG on 44.4% shooting. The Badgers have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Additionally, Wisconsin has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total as an underdog. Rutgers has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. And while the Scarlet Knights have played four straight Overs, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Now this team returns home where they are holding their opponents to just 56.5 PPG while limiting them to making only 35.6% of their shots. Rutgers has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Scarlet Knights have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Rutgers is getting much of their offense from crashing the offensive glass — they are pulling down 33.7% of their missed shots which is 47th in the nation. But the Badgers are still doing a good job of protecting their defensive glass this season as they rank 22nd in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding just 23.0% of their missed shots. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (635) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-10-19 |
Rangers v. Kings UNDER 6 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (63) and the Los Angeles Kings (64). THE SITUATION: New York (15-11-3) has won two of their last three games with their 5-0 shutout victory over Vegas on Sunday. Los Angeles (11-18-2) has lost four games in a row after their 4-3 loss in Calgary on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. This team is playing much better on defense as of late as they have allowed just 1.6 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. Now this team stays on the road where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total. They also have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, New York has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least four goals in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last contest. Los Angeles’ loss to the Flames came on the heels of a 2-1 loss at Edmonton on Friday. The Kings ave played 6 straight games at home Under the Total after losing two straight games to Pacific Division rivals. Los Angeles has also played 28 of their last 38 games Under the Total after losing two straight games by just one goal. Now the Kings return home where the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games on their home ice. Los Angeles is scoring only 1.8 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. Additionally, the Under is 6-0-1 in the Kings’ last 7 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 8 straight games Under the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference — and New York has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against Western Conference foes. 25* NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (63) and the Los Angeles Kings (64). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-10-19 |
Nuggets v. 76ers UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
92-97 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (573) and the Philadelphia 76ers (574). THE SITUATION: Denver (14-7) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 105-102 upset loss at Brooklyn as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (17-7) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven games with their 110-104 win over Toronto as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Denver has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. The Nuggets lead the NBA by allowing just 101.9 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Denver has also played 7 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Philadelphia has seen the Under go 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a point spread victory. The Under is also 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to just 43.8% shooting from the field. The Under is 12-3-1 in the 76ers’ last 16 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 19-7-1 in Philadelphia’s last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers will be looking to avenge a 100-97 loss at Denver back on November 8th — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (573) and the Philadelphia 76ers (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-19 |
Giants v. Eagles UNDER 47 |
Top |
17-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (159) and the Philadelphia Eagles (160). THE SITUATION: New York (2-10) has lost eight games in a row with their 31-13 loss at home to Green Bay last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-7) has lost three games in a row after their embarrassing 37-31 upset loss at Miami last week as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles should respond with a better effort tonight after that humiliating loss to the Dolphins — and their improved level of play will most likely translate on the defensive side of the football. Philadelphia had held their previous four opponents to no more than 17 points before allowing those 37 points to Miami. They also had not allowed more than 225 passing yards in five straight games before Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 351 yards against them last week. The Eagles have 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last game — and they gave played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where they both scored and allowed at least 30 points. Philadelphia has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. The Eagles return home where they are holding their opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with only 270.5 total YPG which is the third lowest number at home in the NFL. Philadelphia has played 4 straight home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as the favorite. But while Philly should play better on defense, they are limited in what they can accomplish on offense with DeSean Jackson on Injured Reserve with his abdominal injury. The Eagles lack a credible vertical threat without Jackson which allows opposing defenses to cheat their strong safety into the box. Philadelphia is scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 328.3 total YPG. They have played a decisive 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. New York will be turning to Eli Manning back under center tonight with rookie Daniel Jones out with his ankle injury. Remember, Manning lost his job in September given his declining throwing skills made his lack of mobility a significant liability. Manning will also be without the top two tight ends on the roster with Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison out with injuries tonight. This is not good news for an offense that has scored only 18.0 PPG while averaging just 286.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Giants’ defense has played better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 317.0 total YPG. New York held the Packers to just 79 rushing yards last week — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, the Giants have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing at least eight of their last ten games. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40% to 49% percentage in the second half of the season, New York has played all 6 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football Under the Total — and in their last 9 opportunities to host the Giants in Philadelphia, the game finished Under the Total 7 times. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (159) and the Philadelphia Eagles (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-08-19 |
Seahawks v. Rams UNDER 48 |
Top |
12-28 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (157) and the Los Angeles Rams (158). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-2) has won five games in a row with their 37-30 win over Minnesota as a 3-point favorite for Monday Night Football. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 34-7 win at Arizona last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It might be tempting for many bettors to take the Over in this game with the Over Machine that is the Seahawks facing a Rams team that put up 34 points in a rematch from a 30-29 scoring fest that Seattle pulled out back on October 3rd. The historical numbers for situations like this (too valuable to share) strongly suggest that these games most likely finish Under the Total. These circumstances are certainly helping us to get some value with the Under with the number creeping up in the high-40s still. Seattle enters this game on a short week — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing on Monday Night Football. The Seahawks are playing increasingly better on the defensive side of the football — they have held their last three opponents to just 333.3 total YPG which is -35.6 net YPG below their season average. Seattle goes back on the road where they are allowing just 19.5 PPG. The Seahawks have played 25 of their last 41 road games Under the Total with the number at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number at 45.5 to 49. The Rams will want to run the football after rushing the ball 30 times last week for 132 yards in their blowout victory over the Cardinals. Head coach Sean McVay commented this week about not being an “idiot” by not feeding running back Todd Gurley the football (despite the loss in his lateral mobility with his arthritis). Los Angeles has run the ball at least 26 times in four of their last six games — and they have not so coincidentally played six of their last seven games Under the Total. But they will now be facing a Seattle defense that is 8th in the NFL by allowing just 99.6 rushing YPG. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They also held Arizona to just 74 rushing yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The LA defense is much improved after the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey which gave them an elite cover-corner. Over their last three games, the Rams have held their opponents to just 19.7 PPG along with only 315.0 total YPG. Los Angeles returns home where they are scoring only 19.4 PPG while averaging a mere 313.4 total YPG. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total. They also have played 29 of their last 43 games in December Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Ramsey did not play in the first meeting between these two teams — so his ability to bottleneck the Seahawks’ wide receiver Tyler Lockett as a deep threat from Russell Wilson. The Rams threw the ball in 49 of their 67 offensive plays in that opening game. I will be shocked if the skewed Run/Pass ratio will resemble that tonight. Look for LA to use their running game to burn time off the clock which is usually the Seahawks game plan as well (especially when they are playing on the road). The Rams have played 5 straight Unders when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (157) and the Los Angeles Rams (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-08-19 |
Lions v. Vikings UNDER 44.5 |
|
7-20 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (143) and the Minnesota Vikings (144). THE SITUATION: Detroit (3-8-1) has lost five games in a row with their 24-20 loss at home to Chicago on Thanksgiving as a 5.5-point underdog. Minnesota (8-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 37-30 loss at Seattle as a 3-point underdog on Sunday Night Football.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. They did get a surprisingly good performance from undrafted rookie free agent David Blough at quarterback who completed 22 of 38 passes for 280 yards. But after Blough led the team to a 17-10 halftime lead, Detroit only scored a field goal in the second half with the Bears slowing down the Lions offense. Now this stout Vikings’ defense has had ten days to study the game tape of the former Purdue quarterback to dissect for this contest. Detroit gained 364 yards in that contest — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC North opponents — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total in December. Minnesota will be looking to get back to playing outstanding defense after surrendering 444 yards of offense to the Seahawks last week. The Vikings have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now Minnesota returns home where they are holding their visitors to just 15.6 PPG along with only 331.4 total YPG. The Vikings have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, Minnesota has paled 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents. And in their last 9 games in December, the Vikings have played 7 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota won the first meeting between these two teams by a 42-30 sore as a 2.5-point favorite back on October 20th. Head coach Matt Patricia should dial-up some better schemes on defense for this rematch. These two teams have played 9 of their last 12 meetings Under the Total — and these two teams have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (143) and the Minnesota Vikings (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-06-19 |
Oregon v. Utah UNDER 50 |
Top |
37-15 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (103) and the Utah Utes (104). THE SITUATION: Oregon (10-2) reached the Pac-12 Championship Game with their 24-10 win over Oregon State last Saturday as a 20.5-point favorite. Utah (11-1) joined them with their 45-15 win over Colorado as a 27.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Utes’ gameplan is to control Time of Possession while crushing the will of their opponent in this game of keep away by employing a very physical style of defense. Utah plays the slowest tempo in the FBS while averaging 34:52 minutes per game with the football. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win at home. Additionally, the Utes have played 16 of their last 22 games on the road Under the Total after a win at home by at least 28 points. Utah held the Buffaloes last week to just 217 yards of offense — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Utes have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Utah has not allowed more than 15 points in seven of their last eight games. Kyle Whittingham’s defense ranks third in the nation by holding their opponents to just 11.3 PPG — and they also rank 3rd in the FBS by allowing just 241.6 total YPG. The Utes have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games against Pac-12 opponents. Furthermore, Utah has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field when favored by up to 7 points. Senior quarterback Tyler Huntley will be challenged by the toughest defense that he has faced all season in this Ducks’ unit. First-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos has done a fantastic job with a unit that returned seven starters from last year’s squad. Oregon ranks 10th in the nation by allowing just 15.8 PPG. It starts up from for the Ducks with nose guard Jordan Scott who leads a defensive line that holds their opponents to only 106.1 rushing YPG which is 10th in the nation. This stout run defense forces opponents to pass — and Oregon has picked off 17 passes this season. The Ducks have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Oregon is led by senior quarterback Justin Herbert who is touted as a high NFL draft prospect but who has underperformed in big games throughout his career. While the Ducks average 452.3 total YPG at home in Autzen Stadium, that number drops by over 60 YPG to just 389.8 total YPG when they are playing on the road. Oregon has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a dog getting 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: Utah played in last year’s Pac-12 Championship Game and lost to Washington by a 10-3 score. While this game should see more offense, expect another lower scoring game. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (103) and the Utah Utes (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-06-19 |
Warriors v. Bulls UNDER 214.5 |
|
100-98 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (519) and the Chicago Bulls (520). THE SITUATION: Golden State (4-19) has lost four in a row with their 106-91 loss at Charlotte as a 3-point underdog. Chicago (8-14) has won two straight games with their 106-99 win against Memphis on Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and the Under is a decisive 38-18-2 in their last 58 games after a straight-up loss. Golden State shot 46.2% from the floor in that loss to the Hornets which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. This team stays on the road where they are making only 42.2% of their shots. Head coach Steve Kerr is developing young players this season given the injuries to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson — and he is seeing better results on the defensive end of the court. The Warriors are allowing 104.4 PPG over their last five games with these opponents making 45.2% of their shots with both marks much better than the 114.2 PPG they are allowing this season on 47.6% shooting. Moving forward, Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They stay at home where they are making just 41.6% of their shots. The Bulls have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has the lowest Offensive Rating in the NBA — but they are playing solid on defense after holding the Grizzlies to just 38.5% shooting in their last game. The Bulls have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Together, these team trends produce our specific 80-28-3 combined angle for this situation. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (519) and the Chicago Bulls (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-19 |
Cowboys v. Bears UNDER 43.5 |
|
24-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Chicago Bears (102). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-6) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-15 upset loss to Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite. Chicago (6-6) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 24-20 win at Detroit last Thursday on Thanksgiving Day as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. This is also a team that has lost the turnover battle in four straight games after not generating even one takeaway over that stretch. Dallas has then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a losing the turnover battle in their last game — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after suffering a -1 or worse net turnover margin in at least four straight games. And while they have gained a healthy 418.7 total YPG over their last three contests, that has translated into just 19.7 PPG. Rookie offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is getting outfoxed by veteran defensive coordinators on big downs. The Red Zone success rate for scoring touchdowns in these last three games is just at 45.5% which represents a decline from their 54.8% touchdown success rate in the end zone for the season. Kicking woes are certainly playing a part in the malaise with this team after placekicker Brett Maher missed two gimme-field goals last week. Maher has missed five of his eleven field goal attempts from 30 to 49 yards which is the second-worst in the league. Now this team goes back on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 398.0 total YPG which is not nearly as impressive as their 27.7 PPG scoring mark at home where they also generate 468.1 total YPG. The defense remains very good for this team — they rank 8th in the NFL by allowing 19.7 PPG and by limiting their opponents to just 321.6 total YPG. The Dallas defense has been even better on the road where they hold their opponents to just 19.2 PPG along with only 294.7 total YPG. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they allowed the Lions’ behind rookie quarterback David Blough to generate 364 yards last week, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Chicago ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 17.3 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up just 319.7 total YPG — and this team holds their visitors to just 16.0 PPG along with only 281.7 total YPG when playing at home. This unit should be up for the challenge tonight — while Dallas averages 25.8 PPG, the Bears have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 24 PPG. Chicago did gain 419 yards last week against a bad Lions defense — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now this team turns home where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total. They also have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total as a small underdog getting up to 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: The cold weather should play a role in slowing down both offenses that struggle in translating their drives into touchdowns. Dallas ranks 24th in the NFL in Yards-Per-Point with Chicago ranking 19th in that metric — and the Cowboys are 31st in the league in that metric over their last three games while the Bears rank 28th. Chicago has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in December. 10* NFL Dallas-Chicago Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Chicago Bears (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-04-19 |
Lakers v. Jazz UNDER 213 |
Top |
121-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (569) and the Utah Jazz (570). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (18-3) enters this game coming off a 105-96 upset win at Denver last night as a 2.5-point underdog. Utah (12-9) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 103-94 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers have played 5 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Los Angeles has also played 25 of their last 34 games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Lakers have seen the Under go 18-6-3 in their last 27 games when playing a game without a day of rest — and they have also played 7 of their last road games Under the Total after playing the previous day also away from home. Anthony Davis is an early contender for Defensive Player of the Year with him playing his best defensive basketball in his career. He has helped the Lakers hold their last five opponents to just 42% shooting from the field. Utah has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have also played 22 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now this team returns home where they are holding their visitors to just 42.1% shooting which is translating into just 103.4 PPG. The Jazz have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Utah has also played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jazz have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range, Utah has played 8 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in Utah. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (569) and the Utah Jazz (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-02-19 |
Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 48.5 |
|
30-37 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Seattle Seahawks (476). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-2) has won four straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 17-9 win at Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite last week. Minnesota (8-3) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-23 win over Denver at home as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory by 6 points or less. Additionally, Minnesota has played 20 of their last 25 games on the road Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Ever since getting called out by wide receiver Adam Thielen for not being aggressive enough in the passing game, Kirk Cousins has been on fire. Since Week Five, Cousins is completing 73% of his passes with 18 touchdowns passes and just one interception. Those 18 TD passes are most in the NFL over that span and his 75 Quarterback Rating since Week Five is the fourth-best in the NFL. The Vikings are 6th in the NFL by averaging 378.6 total YPG — and they are generating 384.7 YPG when playing on the road. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 16 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row. But a concern for the Vikings as of late has been the play of their defense. over their last three games, Minnesota is allowing 24.3 PPG along with 404.7 total YPG which are +5.7 PPG and +66.1 YPG above their season average. Seattle has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Now the Seahawks return home where their defense has been surprisingly shaky. Seattle is allowing its visitors to score 29.2 PPG while averaging 385.8 total YPG. But behind Russell Wilson, the Seahawks are outscoring their opponents as they are 3rd in the NFL by averaging 385.4 total YPG — and they are scoring 26.8 PPG while generating 403.2 total YPG when playing at home. Seattle has played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 7 points — and they have also played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Seahawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in December.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing in Seattle. 10* NFL Minnesota-Seattle ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Seattle Seahawks (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-01-19 |
Patriots v. Texans UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
22-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Houston Texans (474). THE SITUATION: New England (10-1) has won their last two games after their 13-9 win over Dallas last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Houston (7-4) has won three of their last four games after their 20-17 win over Indianapolis two Thursdays ago as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The New England offense is not operating close to peak levels right now with Tom Brady lacking reliable vertical targets. The Patriots are scoring only 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 307.3 total YPG. Remember that New England has scored six non-offensive touchdowns this season from their defense or special teams — so while they are scoring 27.3 PPG, that number drops 23.5 PPG when only accounting for offensive touchdowns. The Patriots’ defense is leading the way for this team — that unit ranks number one in the NFL by allowing only 10.6 PPG and they are second in the league by giving up just 256.4 total YPG. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 25 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing on the road. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans offense has slowed as of late as they are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging just 346.0 total YPG. New England’s shutdown cornerback, Stephon Gilmore will likely neutralize Texans’ wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins — and while Will Fuller has played better as of late, the Patriots’ discipline on defense should contain him. Houston does play better defense at home — they are holding their visitors to just 20.2 PPG along with only 325.0 total YPG. The Texans have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: In New England’s last 12 games in December, they have played 10 of these games Under the Total. And in the Texans’ last 11 games played in December, Houston has played 8 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Houston Texans (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-30-19 |
UNLV v. Nevada UNDER 52 |
|
33-30 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UNLV Rebels (389) and the Nevada Wolf Pack (390). THE SITUATION: UNLV (3-8) snapped their four-game losing streak last week with their 38-35 upset win over San Jose State as a 7-point underdog. Nevada (7-4) has won their last three games with their 35-28 upset win at Fresno State last Saturday as a 12-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rebels have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset win as a home dog. Additionally, UNLV has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. And while the Rebels gained 455 yards last week, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. UNLV goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total — and they have played also played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 12 games again teams with a winning record, the Rebels have played 9 of these games Under the Total. Nevada has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This team is playing much better defense to end their regular season as they have held their last three opponents to just 17.0 PPG along with only 328.7 total YPG. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Wolf Pack have also played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Unders in this series. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the UNLV Rebels (389) and the Nevada Wolf Pack (390). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-28-19 |
Saints v. Falcons UNDER 50 |
Top |
26-18 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (309) and the Atlanta Falcons (310). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (9-2) has won their last two games after their 34-31 win over Carolina last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Atlanta (3-8) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-22 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. And while New Orleans averaged 418 yards of offense last week while averaging 7.33 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after averaging at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. The Saints will look to run the ball more in this rematch of their 26-9 upset loss at home to Atlanta back on November 10th. New Orleans only ran the ball 11 times in that game with Drew Brees since commenting that the offense needs more balance this time around. Running the ball will not only burn more time off the clock but it will help the Saints defense that surrendered more than 300 yards offense in that game for the first time in five contests. New Orleans then gave up 351 yards last week to the Panthers — but the Saints have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for the New Orleans defense is that they will get cornerback Marshon Lattimore who has missed the last few games since being injured in that first encounter with the Falcons where he exited the game holding Julio Jones without a catch. He will help a defense that still ranks 10th in the NFL by allowing 321.3 total YPG. But the Saints remain banged up with their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and left guard Andrus Peat both out for this game. Remember that this New Orleans offense slowed down significantly last season when Armstead went down with an injury. New Orleans is averaging just 317.4 total YPG in their five games on the road which is -51.5 net YPG below their season average. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Falcons had found success after their bye week to begin the month by running back to running the football. In their upset wins over New Orleans and Carolina, Atlanta ran the ball 34 and 26 times. The Atlanta defense also started playing better when head coach Dan Quinn relinquished the defensive play-calling to his assistants while moving Rakeem Morris from offense back to defense (where he built his reputation that eventually got the head coaching gig in Tampa Bay) to coach the defensive backs while calling plays on 3rd down. The Falcons have held their last three opponents to just 15.7 PPG. Atlanta did allow 446 yards last week to the Bucs, they have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Falcons stay at home where they are scoring only 17.2 PPG. They will have Devonta Freeman available to run the football but Jones is a game-time decision at wide receiver. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Falcons have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Atlanta. The Under is also 7-0-1 in the Saints’ last 8 games played on a Thursday — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the Falcons’ last 5 games played on Thursdays. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (309) and the Atlanta Falcons (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-28-19 |
Michigan v. North Carolina UNDER 147 |
Top |
73-64 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (769) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (770) in the Semifinals of the Battle 4 Atlantic Tournament. THE SITUATION: Michigan (5-0) won their opening round game in this three-day tournament with their 83-76 win over Iowa State as a 2-point favorite. North Carolina (5-0) joined them in the Semifinals of this event with their 76-67 win over Alabama as a 10-point favorite yesterday. This game will be played on a neutral court in Nassau.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wolverines have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Michigan has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. The Wolverines made 10 3-pointers yesterday en route to a 57.7% shooting percentage from the field. That effort came on the heels of their 55.8% shooting mark at home against Houston-Baptist where they nailed 14 shots from behind the arc. This team is playing at a faster pace with the players having more of a green light to shoot under first-year head coach Juwan Howard. Howard is dialing up some nice schemes for this team — but this Wolverines group lacks a reliable go-to scorer. They are also settling for a bunch of lower percentage of 2-point shots. As it is, Michigan has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after making at least 55% of their shots in two straight games. The Wolverines have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after making at least 10 3-pointers in two straight games. Michigan will likely struggle to score while playing their worst offensive game of the season against this Tar Heels team that ranks 7th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Wolverines have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on a neutral court. Michigan has also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. North Carolina has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. Additionally, the Tar Heels have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. North Carolina also pulled down 60 rebounds yesterday — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after grabbing at least 51 boards in their last game. The Heels allowed the Crimson Tide to shoot 38.2% from the field which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season. This is a team that has not scored more than 78 points this season which is uncharacteristic of recent Roy Williams teams in Chapel Hill. It is not surprising that the Tar Heels have struggled to find themselves on offense after they lost their top five scorers from last year’s team with three of those players drafted in the first round of the NBA. Williams has a star in freshman Chase Anthony — but he has a very tough assignment with the Wolverines’ Xavier Simpson likely getting the defensive assignment. The Wolverines also have an outstanding post defender in Jon Teste nicknamed the Big Sleep for his defensive abilities down on the block. Michigan ranks 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: Norther Carolina has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. The Tar Heels have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. 25* CBB Battle 4 Atlantic Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (769) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (770). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-28-19 |
Bears v. Lions UNDER 39 |
|
24-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (315) and the Detroit Lions (316). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-6) enters this game coming off a 19-14 win over the New York Giants on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Detroit (3-7-1) has lost four straight games with their 19-16 upset loss at Washington as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: With Matthew Stafford possibly out the season with his hip injury and backup, Jeff Driskel, dealing with a bad hamstring injury he suffered last week, the Lions will be starting rookie David Blough at quarterback for this game. Blough was a part-time starter last year for Purdue who was drafted by Cleveland before being traded to Detroit in late August. Blough has not played a down in a regular-season game yet. Driskel is available as the backup but tight end Logan Thomas will be the emergency QB if something happens to Blough and Driskel is unavailable. This is yet the next disaster for a disastrous franchise that has signed and cut six other quarterbacks in 2019. It is not just the utter failure of this regime under general manager Bob Quinn to identify and develop backup talent quarterback behind Stafford, it is that they are relying on guys like Driskell and now Blough who did not have the benefit of training camp. Then again, maybe that would not have helped much — the football culture in Detroit is the polar opposite of the one in New England where Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia were imported (because they had once been in the same rook as Bill Belichick). The Lions are also dealing with below replacement level talent at running back after the injury to Kerryon Johnson. They did manage 364 yards last week against the hapless Skins in that losing effort — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Detroit defense has been playing better as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 321.7 total YPG which is -74.5 net YPG below their season average. But the Lions are scoring just 18.7 PPG in those three games before relying today on the guy who could not beat out Elijah Sindelar for the starting gig at Purdue last year. Detroit has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have not covered the point spread in six straight contests, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in at least five straight games. Additionally, the Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 6 games against fellow opponents from the NFC North, Detroit has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Chicago has played 6 straight games Under the Total against divisional opponents. The Bears have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Chicago offense is also a mess under the regressing Mitchell Trubisky — they are scoring only 15.3 PPG while averaging 276.0 total YPG over their last three games. But the Bears defense has stepped up in their last three games by allowing just 14.7 PPG along with only 294.0 total YPG. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Now the Bears go on the road where they are scoring just 17.8 PPG along with averaging 247.6 total YPG. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 5 games in November, the Bears have played all 5 games Under the Total. Furthermore, while Chicago has lost five of their last seven games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total after the Bears won the first meeting between these two teams on November 12th by a 20-13 score. With this game being played on a short week with an early afternoon start, expect lots of stalled drives and mostly field goal attempts. Even with the low number, take the Under. 10* NFL Chicago-Detroit Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (315) and the Detroit Lions (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-19 |
Butler v. Stanford UNDER 124.5 |
Top |
68-67 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Butler Bulldogs (673) and the Stanford Cardinal (674) in the championship game of the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City, Missouri. THE SITUATION: Butler (6-0) reached the finals of this two-day tournament with their 63-52 upset win over Missouri as a 2-point underdog. Stanford (7-0) comes off a 73-54 upset win over Oklahoma yesterday as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Butler pulled the upset over the Tigers in large measure by making 47.8% of their shots which was the highest shooting percentage for them all season. The Bulldogs have three starters along with two other significant contributors from last year’s team that finished 16-17 after losing in the first round of the NIT. Third-year head coach LaVall Jordan also added three new big men into his rotation this season. Butler is thriving on the defensive end of the court as they rank 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Bulldogs have not allowed more than 61 points in a game this season — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in at least two straight games. Additionally, Butler has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big East — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as the favorite or as a pick ‘em. Stanford has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Cardinal pulled the upset over the Sooners despite making just 38.5% of their shots which was their worst shooting effort of the season. Not coincidentally, that was Stanford’s first game of the new season that they played away from home. The Cardinal has played 8 of their last 10 games on a neutral court Under the Total — and the Under is 20-8-1 in their last 29 games on a neutral court. Stanford has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. The Cardinal is also played solid defense under fourth-year head coach Jerod Haase. They rank 30th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Stanford has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games Under the Total. The Cardinal has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Pac-12.
FINAL TAKE: Stanford is living by the 3-point shot as they rank 8th in the nation by making 42.4% of their shots from downtown. But Butler ranks 5th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 23.0% shooting from the 3-point line. The Bulldogs have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total in November while the Cardinal has played 15 of their last 222 games Under the Total in November. 25* CBB Hall of Fame Classic Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Butler Bulldogs (673) and the Stanford Cardinal (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-19 |
Ravens v. Rams UNDER 47.5 |
|
45-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (275) and the Los Angeles Rams (276). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-2) has won six straight games with their 41-7 win over Houston at home last week as a 4-point favorite. Los Angeles (6-4) has won three of their last four games with their 17-7 win over Chicago last Sunday as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning their last game by at least two touchdowns. Their win over the Texans came on the heels of a 49-13 win at Cincinnati — and Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by at least three touchdowns. Furthermore, the Ravens have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. With Baltimore averaging 42.3 PPG over their last three games, it is certainly very tempting to expect another higher-scoring game from them tonight. But the Ravens have played 31 of their last 45 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in two straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. While Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense is getting most of the attention, the Ravens’ defense has been playing quite well as of late. Baltimore has held its last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 293.7 total YPG. The Ravens have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Rams are scoring 24.3 PPG, Baltimore has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams that score at least 24 PPG. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a points spread victory. Head coach Sean McVay has begun to change the identity of his offense to rely more heavily on his rushing attack. Los Angeles has averaged 30 rushing attempts over their last four games. This will likely continue to be the strategy tonight to keep Jackson off the field for the Ravens. The Rams have held their last three opponents to just 11.3 PPG along with only 313.7 total YPG. The acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey has certainly helped this talented unit play even better. Ramsey will have the assignment of blanketing the Ravens’ Marquise Brown which will likely eliminate the Baltimore deep passing attack. Led by Aaron Donald, Los Angeles has an outstanding run defense that ranks 4th in the league by allowing only 89.1 rushing YPG. The Bears only ran for 74 yards last week — and the Rams have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Los Angeles stays at home this week where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: While the Ravens lead the NFL by scoring 34.1 PPG, the Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 27 PPG. And while Baltimore averages 24.3 first downs per game along with controlling the clock for 34.36 minutes per game, Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 32 Minutes Per Game while gaining at least 21 first downs per game. 10* NFL Baltimore-LA Rams ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (275) and the Los Angeles Rams (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-19 |
Packers v. 49ers OVER 45.5 |
|
8-37 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (271) and the San Francisco 49ers (272). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-2) has won five of their last six games with their 24-16 win over Carolina two Sundays ago where they were 5-point favorites. San Francisco (9-1) looks to build on their 36-26 win at home over Arizona last Sunday where they were 10-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have seen at least 51 combined points scored in three straight games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games where 50 or more combined points were scored. San Francisco misses the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander who suffered a season-ending chest injury at the beginning of the month. The Niners have allowed 26.0 PPG over their last three games which is over 10 PPG above their 15.5 PPG season average. San Francisco looks like they will be in decent shape tonight on the other side of the ball with both tight end George Kittle and wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel healthy enough to play. Although Jimmy Garoppolo continues to improve after completing 34 of 45 passes for 424 yards with four TD passes last week against the Cardinals even without those weapons. The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They should have tons of success running the ball again this Packers defense that is allowing 126.9 rushing YPG which is 25th in the NFL. The problem for this Green Bay defense is they play a Wide-Nine technique that puts tons of pressure on their interior linemen who struggle to hold the line of scrimmage. Those defensive tackles are vulnerable to double-teams — and their Wide-Nine spaces out defenders who could come in to help. The Packers are allowing 4 Yards-Per-Carry on both 1st and 2nd downs which is setting up effective play-action pass opportunities. Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in Tackles-For-Loss. San Francisco should have great success running the football as they rank 2nd in the league by averaging 149.0 rushing YPG. The 49ers have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents. San Francisco has also played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as the favorite. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have also played 18 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing their last game at home. And while the Packers have played two straight Unders, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Packers did give up 401 total yards against the Panthers — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay has also allowed their four home hosts to average 399.0 total YPG — that helps explain why they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total on the road. The Packers have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting up to 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Over the Total. In an expected close game, look for a back-and-forth game that will finish above the number. 10* NFL Green Bay-San Francisco NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (271) and the San Francisco 49ers (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-19 |
Cowboys v. Patriots UNDER 46 |
|
9-13 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (269) and the New England Patriots (270). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-4) has won three of their last four games after their 35-27 win in Detroit last week as a 7.5-point favorite against the Lions. New England (9-1) returns home after playing their last two games on the road which culminated in a 17-10 win at Philadelphia last week as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have now covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after covering point spread expectations in three of their last four games. Dallas has been an Over machine this season having played three straight Overs as well as in seven of their ten games this season. But these higher scoring games may be, in some part, reflective of their soft schedule that has featured only three teams with a winning record. The Cowboys have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Dallas has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7 points or less. Additionally, while the Patriots are holding their opponents to just 4.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, the Cowboys have then played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total when facing a defense that is not allowing more than 5.2 YPA. Dallas has averaged 6.42 and then 7.27 YPP in their last two games — but they have then played 22 of the last 31 road games Under the Total after averaging at least 6 YPP in two straight games. The Cowboys have an underrated defense that is 7th in the NFL by allowing only 19.7 PPG and just 322.1 total YPG. And while the Patriots only average 1.0 Turnovers-Per-Game, Dallas has played 8 straight road games Under the Total against teams that do not average more than 1.0 Turnovers-Per-Game. New England has now covered the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Patriots’ offensive numbers are propped up a bit with their combination of five defensive and special teams touchdowns. The offense lacks a deep threat — and they will be undermanned with wide receiver Phillip Dorsett out and Mohamad Sanu questionable and limited as he deals with an injury. The Patriots defense has been not quite as spectacular as of late as their strength of schedule has dialed up — but they are still only allowing 20.0 PPG along with 312.3 total YPG over their last three games. They also hold their visitors to just 11.0 PPG along with only 234.0 total YPG. New England has played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying no more than 7 points — and they have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points overall. And in their last 5 games in the month of November, the Patriots have played 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The cold weather will make the Dallas offense uncomfortable — a familiar foe for dome teams. Don’t be surprised if the tone of this game resembles the Cowboys’ 12-10 win in New Orleans earlier this season (although I lean to the Patriots). 10* NFL Dallas-New England Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (269) and the New England Patriots (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-19 |
Colts v. Texans UNDER 46 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (109) and the Houston Texans (110). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-4) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 33-13 win over Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (6-4) saw their two-game winning streak end on Sunday with their 41-7 loss at Baltimore as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played been playing defense as of late. They are 11th in the NFL by allowing 325.6 total YPG but over their last three games that mark has lowered to just 270.0 total YPG — and they have held their last there opponents to only 18.3 PPG. But the Indianapolis offense will be hampered with injuries for this game being played on a short week. Running back Marlon Mack will also be out several weeks after fracturing his hand last week in the third quarter after leading the team with 108 rushing yards. And while wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Eric Ebron has practiced yesterday and are expected to play tonight, their respective effectiveness remains in question as they are dealing with their calf and ankle injuries. Even backup running back, Jordan Wilkins, is slowed with a hamstring injury. These are far from optimal conditions for an offense that ranks 21st in the NFL by averaging 343.8 total YPG — and that number drops to just 330.7 total YPG that they average on the road. The Colts have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Indianapolis has also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Houston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Texans managed only 232 yards last week — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Houston has also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. The Texans are scoring just 20.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 343.3 total YPG with both marks far below their 24.5 PPG and 380.2 total YPG season averages. Now Houston returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total. The Texans have been playing much better defense as those where they are holding their visitors to just 21.0 PPG along with only 332.2 total YPG. Houston has allowed 408.3 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 total YPG over their last three games. The Texans have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And in their last 6 games against AFC South opponents, Houston has played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 30-23 victory over Houston back on October 20th. But despite that game finished above the 46.5 point Total, these team two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (109) and the Houston Texans (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-19 |
NC State v. Georgia Tech UNDER 48 |
|
26-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (111) and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (112). THE SITUATION: NC State (4-6) has lost four games in a row with their 34-20 loss to Louisville last Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. Georgia Tech (2-8) has lost three straight games after their 45-0 loss at home to Virginia Tech last Saturday as a 6-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wolfpack are relying on a redshirt freshman quarterback in Devin Leary as they hope to make it to a bowl game for a sixth straight season. NC State is scoring only 22.9 PPG this year which is 104th in the nation — and they are scoring just 18.5 PPG while averaging 342.5 total YPG in their four games on the road. Leary will likely struggle in this nationally televised game on the road tonight behind a team that has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total away from home. The Wolfpack has also played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the NC State has played 19 of their last 26 games under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 22 games in conference play, the Wolfpack have played 15 of these games Under the Total. Georgia Tech is also relying on a redshirt freshman in quarterback James Graham who hit rock bottom after completing just 7 of 14 passes for 43 yards before being benched on Saturday. The Yellow Jackets trailed by a 21-0 score to the Hokies before even getting their first 1st down. Georgia Tech has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Toal after a loss by at least four touchdowns in their last game. The Yellow Jackets stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. Georgia Tech has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 42 points in their last game. This Yellow Jackets team has struggled to move the football in the transition from a spread triple-option attack to a pro-style formation in the first year under head coach Geoff Collins. Georgia Tech is scoring only 16.5 PPG while averaging 290.2 total YPG which is tied for 124th and 125th in the FBS. In their five games at home, the Yellow Jackets are scoring only 14.0 PPG along with just 241.4 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia Tech has played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday night — and the Under is an incredible 19-1-1 in NC State’s last 21 games played on a Thursday. 10* CFB NC State-Georgia Tech ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (111) and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-19-19 |
Ohio v. Bowling Green UNDER 57 |
Top |
66-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (101) and the Bowling Green Falcons (102). THE SITUATION: Ohio (4-6) has lost their last two games are their 37-34 upset loss at home to Western Michigan last Tuesday as a 1.5-point favorite. Bowling Green (3-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 44-3 loss at Miami (OH) as a 17-point underdog last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bobcats are looking to salvage their season with a potential bowl bid still after getting upset in two straight games by a combined 6 points. Their loss to the Broncos finished well above the 59 point Total — and they have played 29 of their last 43 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Ohio has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. The Bobcats allowed 322 passing yards in that game to the Broncos — but they have then seen the Under go 24-10-1 in their last 35 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Despite that effort last week, Ohio has been playing better defense as of late. They have held their last three opponents to 368.7 total YPG which is -63.9 net YPG below their season average. Now the Bobcats go on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 359.5 total YPG — and those numbers are -5.8 PPG and -51.3 net YPG below their season averages. Ohio also holds their home hosts to just 23.5 PPG which is -6.2 PPG below their season defensive average. The Bobcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Ohio did rush for 216 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Bobcats average 6.89 Yards-Per-Play in that contest — and they have played 25 of their last 36 road games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in Ohio’s last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Bowling Green has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bobcats have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. Despite last week’s result, the Falcons have also played a bit better on the defensive side of the football. While Bowling Green ranks 105th in the nation by allowing 441.1 total YPG, they have held their last three opponents to just 366.3 total YPG. The Falcons have played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Bowling Green does play much better defense at home where they hold their visitors to just 17.8 PPG along with only 313.6 total YPG in their five games this season. The Falcons have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total. The bigger issue for Bowling Green is their lack of productivity on offense as they rank 125th in the nation by scoring only 16.1 PPG. The Falcons have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total after failing to score at least 14 points in their last contest. Bowling Green was trailing by a 37-3 score at halftime of that game — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after trailing by at least 17 points at halftime of their last game.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (101) and the Bowling Green Falcons (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-19 |
Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 53 |
Top |
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-4) has lost two of their last three games as well as four of their last six contests after their 35-32 upset loss at Tennessee as a 5-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (4-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two Thursdays ago with their 26-21 upset loss at Oakland as a 1-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Chargers have an underrated defense — they are 6th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.4 PPG and they are also 6th in the league by limiting these foes to only 318.6 total YPG. Los Angeles has held its last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 283.3 total YPG. Improved run defense has been fundamental to Chargers’ playing even better on that side of the football. After getting gouged for 162 rushing yards at Chicago three weeks ago, Los Angeles held the Packers to only 45 rushing yards before limiting the Raiders last week to just 78 rushing yards. The Chargers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. But Los Angeles has also averaged only 329.3 total YPG over their last three games which is over 25 YPG below their season average. The Chargers’ star left tackle, Russell Okung has been downgraded to doubtful for this game with his ankle injury. That is not a good turn of events for a team that is just 21st in the NFL by averaging 20.7 PPG. Los Angeles has then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in November — and they have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents. The Chargers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Kansas City had played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Additionally, the Chiefs have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. The Chargers’ game plan will surely be to run the football against the Chiefs defense that ranks 30th in the NFL by allowing 148.1 rushing YPG. LA running the football will burn time off the clock while keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field. Kansas City allowed the Titans to rush for 225 yards last week — and they have then played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to rush for at least 150 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played nine straight games where no more than 50 combined points have been scored. The Chiefs have played three of their last six games where no more than 49 combined points were scored. With this game being played in altitude of 7200 square feet, the Chargers will be looking to slow this game down to a crawl to tire out the Kansas City defense. They may not be able to stop down the Mahomes — but fewer possessions for the Chiefs offense should help this game finish below the number. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Bears v. Rams UNDER 40 |
Top |
7-17 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-5) snapped their four-game winning streak last week with their 20-10 win at home over Detroit as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (5-4) had their two-game winning streak end last week with their 17-12 loss at Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns passes — but if you think those numbers are a refection of a sudden improvement in his play, the ole eyeball test suggested otherwise during this game. The Bears only held a 7-6 lead at halftime against the Lions team playing without Matthew Stafford. Chicago only had 13 first downs in that game while being outgained by -131 net yards due to their stagnant offense that managed only 226 yards against a Detroit team that entered that game ranked second-to-last in total defense. Trubisky looks lost in his third season as a professional — and perhaps the bigger indictment of his development is that head coach Matt Nagy has clearly lost confidence in him as evidenced by his conservative play-calling. The Bears are 29th in the league by averaging 262.2 total YPG — and they are scoring just 16.7 PPG while averaging 259.3 total YPG over their last three games. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bears have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 275 yards of offense in their last game. Chicago was outgained by 309 net yards in their previous game against Philadelphia — and they have then played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total after being outgained by at least 100 yards in two straight contests. The Bears have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. Chicago has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bears are still playing good defense this season — they rank 4th in the NFL by allowing only 17.4 PPG and they have held their last three opponents to just 320.3 total YPG. Los Angeles managed only 306 yards last week in their loss at Pittsburgh. Jared Goff completed only 22 of 41 passes for 243 yards in that loss with him struggling behind an injured offensive line. The Rams are also missing wide receiver Brandin Cooks which allows opposing defenses to double cover Cooper Krupp who did not have a reception last season. Los Angeles is getting better play from their defense since the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey. They have held their last three opponents to just 12.3 PPG along with only 299.3 total YPG. The Steelers rushed for only 42 yards last week — and Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Rams return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Chicago’s 15-6 upset victory over the Rams last December 9th. That was the game where Bears’ defensive coordinator installed a 6-1 defensive front with six defenders on the line stymying the Rams play-action pass attack. The Sean McVay offense has not been quite the same since that contest in this copycat league. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Patriots v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 |
|
17-10 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). THE SITUATION: New England (8-1) returns to the field again after their bye week which came after their first loss of the season in Baltimore by a 37-20 score. Philadelphia (5-4) also comes off their bye week as well after their 22-14 win over Chicago as a 5-point favorite two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Look for head coach Bill Belichick to have worked on getting his defense back into shape after Lamar Jackson and the Ravens rushing attack put up 30 points against them (with 7 points coming from a defensive touchdown by Baltimore). The Patriots have played 6 straight games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. Additionally, New England has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, the Patriots have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. New England remains the best statistical defense in the league as they are allowing 10.9 PPG and just 249.3 total YPG which are both best in the NFL. The Patriots are also 2nd in the NFL by scoring 30.0 PPG — but those numbers include six non-offensive touchdowns from special teams and their defense. Tellingly, New England is 15th in the NFL by averaging just 366.8 total YPG — and they are averaging just 342.4 total YPG on the road and only 327.7 total YPG over their last three games. Tom Brady lacks credible deep threats from his wide receivers — and this is allowing opponents to stack the box to put more pressure on their ground game. Now the Patriots go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have also played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total as the favorite. Philadelphia is also a team that has been limited on offense given the lack of deep threats given the injury abdominal injury to DeSean Jackson that has placed him on IR. The Eagles are just 19th in the NFL by averaging 347.0 total YPG. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after their bye week. The Philly defense has been playing better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 273.0 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total — and they have also played 9 of their last 111 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL New England-Philadelphia CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
13-33 |
Loss |
-113 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago in London with their 26-3 loss to Houston as a 1-point favorite. Indianapolis (5-4) has lost two straight games with their 16-12 upset loss at home to Miami last week as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The team does get Jacoby Brissett back under center after he missed the last two games. But he will be without his best weapon in wide receiver T.Y. Hilton who is out for this game — and his absence has had a significant impact on the ability of this offense to move down the field. The Colts defense has been keeping this team competitive — they have held their last five opponents to just 18.2 PPG with that number including an interception returned for a touchdown which was not the fault of the defense. Indianapolis is 10th in the NFL by allowing just 327.6 total YPG — and they have allowed their last three opponents to average just 260.3 total YPG. The Colts stay at home where they have played 21 of their last 31 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Indianapolis has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in November. And in their last 15 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Colts have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 4 straight games Under the Total against divisional rivals. The Jaguars have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Jacksonville has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss as the favorite in their last contest. The team gets back Nick Foles at quarterback in this game — but it is not as if Gardner Minshew was playing bad for this team since Week One. He threw for 309 yards last week while leading an offense that generated 309 yards against the Texans — but the Jags have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Jacksonville has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring no more than 14 points in their last game. Foles threw only 11 passes in Week One before he suffered his injury. Now this team goes back not he road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. This team will still rely on running back Leonard Fournette and their strong defense that has held their last three opponents to just 19.3 PPG along with only 304.7 total YPG. Moving forward, the Jaguars have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: These teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after last year’s 6-0 win by Jacksonville back on December 21st. While I expect more scoring than that, these two teams have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Indy. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Broncos v. Vikings UNDER 41 |
|
23-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (459) and the Minnesota Vikings (460). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-6) snapped their two-game losing streak two weeks ago with their 24-19 win over Cleveland as a 4-point underdog. Minnesota (7-3) has won five of their last six games with their 28-24 upset win last Sunday night in Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 11-1-1 in the Broncos’ last 13 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a point spread victory. And while the Denver defense surrendered 351 yards in that game, the Under is then 13-3-1 in their last 17 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Rookie QB Brandon Allen was solid but unspectacular in his first career start by completing 12 of his mere 20 passes in that game for 193 yards. I expect him to struggle against this Panthers defense that now can study him on tape executing the Denver offense in a regular-season game. The Broncos are scoring only 16.2 PPG on the road — and the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games on the road. Denver has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after their bye week. Furthermore, the Under is 8-1-1 in the Broncos’ last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as the underdog. Minnesota’s defense will be make it tough on Allen — they are holding their visitors to just 13.7 PPG along with only 315.7 total YPG. The Vikings have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Vikings’ game with the Cowboys finished Over the 48.5 point total with all but one scoring drive in that game stalling for a field goal. But Minnesota has then played 7 straight home games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored.
FINAL TAKE: Kirk Cousins targeted 16 of his 23 completions last week to tight ends or running backs with Adam Thielen on the sidelines with an ankle injury. He led the Vikings’ offense to 364 total yards in that game — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Thielen is once again out for this game — and Minnesota is facing a tough Denver defense that is 4th in the NFL by allowing only 309.7 total YPG. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (459) and the Minnesota Vikings (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Saints v. Bucs UNDER 51.5 |
|
34-17 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (453) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (454). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (7-2) saw their six-game winning streak snapped last week with their surprising 26-9 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 14-point favorite. Tampa Bay (3-6) ended their four-game losing streak last week with their 30-27 win at home over Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is, in part, a contrarian play after considering that the Buccaneers have played seven straight Overs entering this game. Tampa Bay did generate 457 yards last week but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Buccaneers have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Tampa Bay is allowing 32.0 PPG which is the worst in the NFL — but this defense also leads the NFL by giving up just 77.8 rushing YPG and that is not just about the opponents not rushing very much as opposing rushers are averaging just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. I suspect that Sean Paton will want to get his running game going after the Saints managed only 310 total yards last week. The New Orleans offense was only on the field for 26:14 minutes in that game with Drew Brees attempting 45 passes (for 287 yards) — so the Saints will likely try to re-establish their commitment to running the football to help their defense. New Orleans has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss by at least 10 points. And while the Saints are averaging 414.7 total YPG over their last three games, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after averaging at least 400 total YPG over their last three games. This team has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards. They go on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The New Orleans defense ranks 5th in the league by holding their opponents to just 316.6 total YPG. And in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record, the Saints have played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 15 of their last 22 meetings Under the Total — and they have played five of their last six encounters in Tampa Bay Under the Total. With the number in the 50 range, expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (453) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-19 |
USC v. California UNDER 48 |
|
41-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (361) and the California Golden Bears (362). THE SITUATION: USC (6-4) has won three of their last four games with their 31-26 win at Arizona State last Saturday as a 5-point favorite. Cal (5-4) snapped a four-game losing streak last week with their 33-20 upset win over Washington State as an 8.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Cal has also now played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total in Pac-12 play. The Golden Bears rank 25th in the nation by allowing only 20.7 PPG this season. They stay at home where they are limiting their visitors to just 19.0 PPG along with only 332.6 total YPG. But Cal is struggling to move the football as they are scoring just 16.7 PPG while averaging a mere 263.7 total YPG. Sophomore quarterback Chase Garbers has been upgraded to probable with his shoulder injury that has kept him out but head coach Justin Wilcox has been cagey regarding if he will take the place of UCLA graduate transfer Devon Modster who led the team to victory last week. Either way, both quarterbacks are combining to average just 182.9 passing YPG which is 109th in the nation. Overall, the Golden Bears are 119th in the nation by averaging just 308.6 total YPG. Cal has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Golden Bears have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. USC raced out to a 28-13 lead last week against the Sun Devils — and they have played a decisive 45 of their last 67 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game including playing three of their last four of these situations Under the Total. The Trojans held Arizona State to just 47 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. But while USC did surrender 292 passing yards to the Sun Devils in that game, the Under is then 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. The Trojans stay on the road where they are scoring 26.8 PPG which is -3.8 PPG below their season average. Additionally, USC has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on field turf.
FINAL TAKE: Cal won last year’s meeting between these two teams by a 15-14 score. These two teams have played 16 of their last 21 encounters Under the Total including 6 of their last 7 clashes Under the Total when playing in Berkeley. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (361) and the California Golden Bears (362). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-16-19 |
Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 42.5 |
Top |
21-14 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). THE SITUATION: Georgia (8-1) has won three straight games since their loss to South Carolina after their 27-0 shutout victory over Missouri as an 18.5-point favorite last week. Auburn (7-2) has won two of their last three games with their 20-14 win over Ole Miss two weeks ago as a 17-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. Georgia has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Bulldogs sport an elite defense that has not allowed more than 20 points all season. Georgia ranks 2nd in the nation by allowing just 10.1 PPG while also ranking 5th in the nation with a total defense of 260.3 YPG. Over their last three games, the Bulldogs are giving up a mere 5.7 PPG along with just 217.7 total YPG. Georgia is growing more and more reliant on their defense as their offense is scoring -4.0 PPG over their last four games than their season average up to that point. The Bulldogs have been exposed in lacking vertical threats in their passing game which has allowed their opponents to push one of their defensive backs into the box. Over their last three games, Georgia is scoring just 24.0 PPG along with averaging only 335.7 total YPG. The Bulldogs have played 4 straight games Under the Total against conference opponents — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Georgia has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as the favorite. Auburn has seen the Under go 16-6-1 in their last 23 games after a point spread win. Freshman quarterback Bo Nix might have played his best game of the season last week by completing 30 of 44 passes for 340 yards while leading the Tigers offense to generate 507 total yards. But Auburn has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Nix has still been up-and-down this season as he is completing only 56.5% of his passes. The Tigers put up big numbers against their weaker competition — but they are scoring only 20 PPG against ranked opponents while scoring just 16.5 PPG in their two losses. This Auburn team is also outstanding on the defensive side of the football. The Tigers rank 13th in the nation by allowing just 17.4 PPG while also ranking 28th in the FBS by giving up only 333.4 total YPG. In their four games at home, they are limiting their visitors to just 14.7 PPG and 286.0 total YPG. Auburn has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They held the Rebels two weeks ago to 266 total yards — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Remember, Auburn limited an LSU offense that just torched Alabama to just 23 points. Moving forward, the Under is 23-10-1 in the Tigers’ last 34 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Auburn has played 35 of their last 54 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in November.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have defenses that are continuing to improve. Georgia has allowed -4.7 PPG over their last four games while Auburn has given up -4.0 PPG over their last four contests. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — expect another lower scoring game. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-19 |
Texas v. Iowa State UNDER 65.5 |
|
21-23 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (377) and the Iowa State Cyclones (378). THE SITUATION: Texas (6-3) has won two of their last three games with their 27-24 win over Kansas State as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Iowa State (5-4) has lost two in a row after their narrow 42-41 loss at Oklahoma as a 14-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a win. And while Texas has not covered the point spread in three straight games, Texas has played 22 of their last 28 games Under the Total after covering the point spread just once in their last four games. The defense has been a disappointment for head coach Tom Herman as they rank 109th in the nation by allowing 447.6 total YPG. But injuries have played a big role in the play of this defense. The Longhorns got safeties Caden Sterns and B.J. Foster back on the field last week — and they limited the Wildcats to just 304 total yards last week in that win. Now Texas looks to get safety Chris Brown and linebacker Jeffrey McCullough back on the field as they return from their respective injuries. That will help this Longhorns team even more than has played a decisive 38 of their last 54 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Texas did generate 477 yards of offense last week but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Longhorns have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total as the underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Over/Under set at 63 or higher. And in their last 30 games played in November, Texas has played 23 of these games Under the Total. Iowa State has seen the Under go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after a point spread win — and the Under is 18-8-1 in their last 27 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Furthermore, while the Cyclones generated 477 yards of offense last week, the Over is then 14-6-1 in their last 21 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and the Over is also 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. That game with the Sooners flew Over the 71 point Total last week — and Iowa State has played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a game that combined for at least 70 points. The Cyclones return home where their defense plays better by allowing just 24.4 PPG along with only 346.2 total YPG. They have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total with the number set at 63 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played their last 4 meetings Under the Total. 10* CFB Texas-Iowa State FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (377) and the Iowa State Cyclones (378). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-19 |
Steelers v. Browns UNDER 41.5 |
Top |
7-21 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-4) has won four straight games with their 17-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Rams as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Cleveland (3-6) snapped their four-game losing streak on Sunday with their 19-16 win at home over Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after point spread win — and with Pittsburgh having covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Steelers have also played 9 straight games Under the Total after playing a game against an NFC opponent. This is a team that became a defense-first run team after the season-ending injury to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The Steel Curtain defense had been playing better after a slow start — but this unit has gone to another level with the acquisition of Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Dolphins. Pittsburgh is allowing only 16.7 PPG along with just 288.0 total YPG over their last three games. But the Steelers are scoring only 23.3 PPG while averaging a mere 313.3 total YPG over those last three games. Overall, Pittsburgh is just 28th in the NFL by averaging 288.8 total YPG. Now after playing their last three games at home, this team goes back on the road where their offense struggles even more as they are scoring just 15.3 PPG while averaging 267.7 total YPG in their three games away from home. Surprisingly, this will be Mason Rudolph’s just second start on the road in his career after he completed just 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards in Week Three this season in their loss in San Francisco. The Steelers have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 22 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Pittsburgh has also played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. Additionally, the Steelers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC North opponents — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. Cleveland has played 22 of their last 31 home games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. The Browns ranks just 26th in the league by scoring only 19.0 PPG — and they are scoring just 17.0 PPG over their last three games. The defense has played better as of late as they are allowing only 321.3 total YPG over those last three games which is almost 35 YPG below their season average. Cleveland stays at home where the are scoring just 18.2 PPG. The Under is 17-7-1 in the Browns’ last 25 games at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Cleveland has also played 31 of their last 43 home games Under the Total when favored by up to 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: Don’t be surprised if plenty of scoring drives end up in field goals. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in the NFL by scoring touchdowns in just 39.3% of their Red Zone drives — and Cleveland ranks 26th in the league with a TD rate of only 46.7% of their Red Zone drives after a meager 30% conversion rate over their last three games (including a brutal stalled drive inside the 10-yard line against the Bills’ last week). These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings in Cleveland Under the Total. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-19 |
Memphis v. Oregon UNDER 145.5 |
Top |
74-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (819) and the Memphis Tigers (820). THE SITUATION: Oregon (2-0) has won their first two games this season after their 106-75 win over Boise State on Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite. Memphis (2-0) has also won their first two games of the new season with their 92-46 win over Illinois-Chicago on Friday as a 20-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Moda Denver in Portland.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ducks were on fire on Saturday as they shot 70% from the field to torch the Broncos. But Oregon has then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making at least 60% of their shots in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. The Under is also 10-3-1 in the Ducks last 14 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Oregon has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win at home by at least 20 points. The Ducks have played very good defense so far this season — they held Boise State to just 42.9% shooting from the field after limiting Fresno State to just 34.5% shooting in their opening game. This will be Oregon’s first game away from their home court this season — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after playing two straight games at home. And while their win over the Broncos flew over the 136.5 total on Saturday, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Furthermore, Oregon has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total with the number set in the 140s — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Memphis has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Tigers made 59.3% of their shots in their victory on Friday while holding the Flames to just a 24.% shooting mark. Memphis has then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where they shot at least 57% while holding their opponent to no better than 43% shooting. Their victory over Illinois-Chicago was preceded by a 97-64 win over South Carolina State where they held them to just 36.2% shooting — and they have played 17 of their last 22 road games Under the Total after winning their previous two games by at least 20 points. Freshman James Wiseman will likely play in this game with the court-ordered injunction still in effect that has blocked the NCAA’s decision to make him ineligible — the seven-footer had five blocks on Friday. Wiseman should be dominant on defense inside the paint against this Ducks team that lacks size. Moving forward, the Under is 6-0-1 in Oregon’s last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Oregon has seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games played on a neutral court — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points. Memphis has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. 25* CBB Phil Knight Invitational Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (819) and the Memphis Tigers (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-11-19 |
Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 45 |
Top |
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the San Francisco 49ers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-2) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 40-34 win over Tampa Bay last week in overtime as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (8-0) remained unbeaten two Thursdays ago with their 28-25 win at Arizona as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in seven of their last nine games. They are 5th in the NFL by averaging 395.5 total YPG — and they also rank 7th in the league by scoring 27.6 PPG. But the concern for this team is their defense as they have allowed at least 20 points in eight of their nine contests this season. The Seahawks rank 29th in the NFL by allowing 278.1 passing YPG. Atlanta’s aging backup quarterback, Matt Schaub, tore their defense up for 460 yards two weeks ago before Jameis Winston passed for 335 yards against them last week. Seattle has played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Over their last three games, the Seahawks are allowing 28.0 PPG along with 423.3 total YPG. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 28.5 PPG — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road. Seattle has also played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow opponents from the NFC West — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total in November. San Francisco has played their last two games Over the Total — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. The 49ers have played outstanding defense this season — they rank first in the NFL by limiting their opponents to just 241.0 total YPG. But the Niners lost the heart and soul of their defense last week with the season-ending chest injury to linebacker Kwan Alexander. San Francisco returns home where they are scoring 35.3 PPG while averaging 423.3 total YPG. They have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 7 points. Additionally, the 49ers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against NFC West foes.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total. Hopefully, we will start seeing more Red Zone trips end in touchdowns rather than short field goals (and then maybe our Unders will start seeing some Red Zone drives stall and settle for field goals). Sooner or later, the Regression Gods always reappear! In the meantime, let's stick to solid fundamentals. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the San Francisco 49ers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-19 |
Vikings v. Cowboys UNDER 48 |
Top |
28-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-3) looks to bounce-back from their 26-23 upset loss at Kansas City last week as a 5.5-point favorite that snapped their four-game winning streak. Dallas (5-3) has won two straight games with their 37-18 win in New York against the Giants last Monday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys preceded their victory on Monday Night Football with a 37-10 win on Sunday Night Football two weeks prior against the Eagles. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 28 points in a victory over an NFC East rival in their last game. Additionally, not only have the Cowboys played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games but they have also played 5 straight Unders after winning two straight games by double-digits. Dallas has had their offense cranking as of late — but they have then played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. Dallas has averaged 6.6 and 6.4 Yards-Per-Play respectively in each of their last two games — but they have then played 37 of their last 56 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. The Cowboys also rushed for 172 yards last week against the Giants — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Dallas returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite. QB Kirk Cousins will be without wide receiver Adam Thielen who is out for this game with a hamstring injury. Look for the Vikings to run the football to keep the Cowboys’ offense off the field. That will be easier said than done — Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 17.8 PPG and they also rank 6th in the league by giving up just 318.1 total YPG. The Vikings will lean on their defense that ranks 4th by allowing only 17.6 PPG while also ranking 8th by giving up just 320.9 total YPG. Minnesota did allow the Chiefs to average 7.1 YPP — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Vikings have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to 7 points. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against NFC opponents — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total playing on field turf.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 encounters Under the Total. Look for this game to resemble the Cowboys prime-time game in New Orleans at the end of September which resulted in a 12-10 score. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-09-19 |
Vanderbilt v. Florida UNDER 49.5 |
Top |
0-56 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores (143) and the Florida Gators (144). THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (2-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 24-7 loss at South Carolina last Saturday as a 15-point underdog. Florida (7-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-17 loss to Georgia last week as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Gators have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Florida’s offense sputtered last week as they managed only 278 total yards against the Bulldogs defense. The lack of a credible rushing attack is the Achilles’ heel of this Florida team — they average only 128.9 rushing YPG which is 70th in the nation. Over their last three games, the Gators are scoring 27.7 PPG while averaging just 363.0 total YPG which is far below their 30.8 PPG and 403.9 total YPG averages. Now this team returns home to Gainesville where they are 4-0 this season while playing outstanding defense. Florida has held their four guests to just 4.0 PPG along with only 237.5 total YPG. The Gators have played 6 straight games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 17 home games when laying 21.5 to 28 points, Florida has played 13 of these games Under the Total. Vanderbilt has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Commodores only gained 189 yards last week against the mediocre Gamecocks defense. Junior quarterback Duece Wallace has been tapped as the starter for this game with Ball State transfer Riley Neal out for this game with a concussion. Wallace completed just 8 of 17 passes in relief last week against South Carolina for just 30 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Vanderbilt managed only 76 passing yards overall last week — and the Under is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. The Commodores will struggle to score points — they are averaging just 17.0 PPG while averaging just 317.1 total YPG which rank 123rd and 115th in the nation. The Vandy rushing attack is not likely to bail Wallace out in this game either as they are averaging just 125.9 rushing YPG which is 109th in the nation. Florida is 11th in the nation by allowing only 16.7 PPG — and they also rank 31st in the FBS by giving up just 123.6 rushing YPG. The Commodores particularly struggle to move the football on the road where they are scoring only 12.3 PPG while averaging 314.7 total YPG. Vanderbilt has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Commodores have played five straight Unders, they have then played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. If there is a bright spot for Mason’s team as the season progresses, it has been the improved play of their defense. Over their last three games, Vanderbilt has allowed 24.0 PPG along with 370.3 total YPG which is more than 10 points and 80 YPG below their season averages. The Commodores have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow SEC opponents — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of November.
FINAL TAKE: Vanderbilt has played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as a big underdog getting more than three touchdowns. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores (143) and the Florida Gators (144). Best of luck for us — Frank (who also will have his 25* CFB Saturday Night ESPN Game of the Year and the LSU-Alabama ATS winner as part of his Saturday CFB card).
|
11-07-19 |
Chargers v. Raiders UNDER 49 |
Top |
24-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (107) and the Oakland Raiders (108). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-5) has won two straight games after their 26-11 upset win at home over Green Bay on Sunday as a 4-point underdog. Oakland (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 31-24 win over Detroit as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns. Los Angeles has also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two straight games. The Chargers were able to get their ground game going in this game with a simplified rushing attack relying on fewer plays under new offensive coordinator Shane Steichen who replaced the fired Ken Whisenhunt. Los Angeles rushed for 159 yards in that game against the Packers which helped them control the time of possession for 35:51 minutes which kept Aaron Rodgers off the field. Green Bay managed only 184 total yards in that game — and the Chargers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Los Angeles defense has been good once again this season as they rank 8th in the NFL by allowing just 18.7 PPG — and they also rank 8th in total defense by giving up only 322.8 total YPG. Over their last three games, the Chargers are allowing just 16.7 PPG along with only 325.0 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. But now LA goes back on the road where they are scoring only 19.2 PPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. The Chargers have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in November. And in their last 11 games played on Thursday Night Football, the Under is 7-3-1. The Under is also 7-3-1 in Oakland’s last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Raiders have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Oakland has seen at least 51 combined points scored in three straight games, they have then played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Raiders defense has allowed at least 388 yards in three straight games after they surrendered 473 yards last week to the Lions. But not only has Oakland played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games but they have also played 10 of their last 12 games at home Under the Total after allowing at least 375 yards in three straight games. The Raiders do play stout against the run as they rank 7th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 92.5 rushing YPG. They stay at home for just their fourth true home game where they are scoring only 21.7 PPG — and they may be without their star right tackle, Trent Brown, who is questionable on this short week with a knee injury. Oakland has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against AFC West opponents — and the Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing fellow AFC West foes. These two teams have also played 5 straight encounters Under the Total. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (107) and the Oakland Raiders (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-05-19 |
Michigan State v. Kentucky UNDER 141 |
Top |
62-69 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (689) and the Kentucky Wildcats (690). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (0-0) returns two starters from last year’s team that lost to Texas Tech in the Final Four. Kentucky (0-0) has one starter back from last year’s group that lost in overtime to Auburn in the Elite Eight. This game is the second contest in the two Champions Classic games being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans closed out last season having played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. This Michigan State team will once again be led by a Player of the Year candidate in Cassius Winston. But this team lacks a reliable second scoring option given the injuries to Joshua Langford that will keep off the court until at least January at the earliest. It looks like Kyle Ahrens will be able to play tonight but he will not likely be close to 100% given the high angle sprain he is dealing with. The Spartans closed out last season playing 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Michigan State has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have also played 11 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. Kentucky is led by sophomore Ashton Hagans who was the co-Defensive Player of the Year in the SEC last year. The Wildcats closed out last season playing 6 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC. Kentucky has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Wildcats closed out last season playing 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as an underdog getting no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: I am comfortable putting some stock in these team trends because they reflect the core personality of the respective head coaches in Tom Izzo and John Calipari. Lastly, because the Spartans out-rebounded their opponents by +8.8 RPG last season, the Under is also supported by an empirical angle that has been 86% effective over the last five seasons. In games played on a neutral court in the first ten games of the season with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, when one team out-rebounded their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG last season and has two starters back from that team, these games then finished Under the Total in 24 of these last 28 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB Champions Classic Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (689) and the Kentucky Wildcats (690). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-19 |
Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 48.5 |
Top |
37-18 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the New York Giants (476). THE SITUATION: Dallas (4-3) snapped their three-game losing streak back on October 20th with their 37-10 win over Philadelphia for Sunday Night Football as a 3-point favorite. New York (2-6) has lost four straight games after their 31-26 loss in Detroit to the Lions as a 6-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under there Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Cowboys are playing outstanding defense this season — they rank 5th in the NFL by allowing 17.7 PPG while ranking 8th in the league by giving up just 324.9 total YPG. In their three games on the road, Dallas is holding their home hosts to just 19.0 PPG along with only 301.0 total YPG. But the Cowboys offense slows down when away from AT&T Stadium. Dallas is scoring 27.1 PPG along with 437.9 total YPG this season — but those numbers drop to just 21.0 PPG along with 376.0 total YPG on the road this year. The Cowboys are averaging 454.3 total YPG in their last three games — but they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after averaging at least 450 yards over their last three contests. Dallas did rush for 189 yards in their win against the Eagles — but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. And in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points, the Cowboys have played 6 of these games Under the Total. A bright spot in New York’s loss at Detroit last week was that they held the Lions to only 59 rushing yards. The Giants have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The New York run defense was then fortified at the trade deadline with the Giants acquiring the 300-LB defensive lineman Leonard Williams from the Jets. New York has played much better on defense when playing at home this season — their four visitors are scoring just 17.2 PPG while averaging only 308.2 total YPG. But the Giants are scoring only 17.2 PPG at home in those games while averaging just 308.2 total YPG. New York is also scoring only 20.3 PPG over their last three games while generating a mere 281.0 total YPG in those contests. Not surprisingly given those numbers, the Giants have played 4 straight home games Under the Total. And in their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total in 4 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Cowboys’ 35-17 victory at home over the Giants back on September 8th. The Total was set at 44 in that game with that result being just the second Over in the last seven meetings between these two clubs. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the New York Giants (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-19 |
Patriots v. Ravens UNDER 45 |
Top |
20-37 |
Loss |
-102 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Baltimore Ravens (474). THE SITUATION: New England (8-0) remained undefeated last week with their 27-13 win over Cleveland as a 10-point favorite. Baltimore (5-2) returns off their bye week after winning their third straight game in a row with their 30-16 victory at Seattle as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. New England has covered the point spread in four straight games with all four of those victories being by at least 21 points. The Patriots have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. This is an elite New England defense that is tops in the NFL in allowing just 7.6 PPG along with only 234.0 total YPG. The formula for success in this game is likely to concentrate on stopping the Ravens running game while spying on Lamar Jackson with his ability to run the football while relying on their outstanding cornerbacks to handle the young Baltimore wide receivers in single coverage. On offense, the Patriots are averaging just 342.5 total YPG over their last three games which is -27.4 net YPG below their season average that ranks just 16th in the league. New England has a banged-up offensive line — and they lack reliable deep threats from their wide receivers from a group that has moved on from both Antonio Brown and now Josh Gordon. Remember that the Patriots have scored four defensive touchdowns while adding another two special teams touchdowns this season. Take away those 42 points (with the extra point) — and the Patriots scoring average of 31.2 PPG drops to 25.95 PPG. They face a Ravens team that has not committed a turnover in four of their seven games — so they are unlikely to be gifted the ball the way the Browns, Jets, and Giants have over the last three weeks where New England forced 13 combined turnovers. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when they have won at least six straight games. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road by at least two touchdowns. The Ravens have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has also played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a bye week which includes them playing eight of their last eleven games Under the Total when given an extra day to rest and prepare. This Ravens defense should stuff the Patriots rushing attack and force Tom Brady to beat them with his depleted wide receiving corps — they rank 3rd in the league by allowing only 84.3 rushing YPG. Over their last three games, Baltimore has held its opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 288.7 total YPG. They return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: New England has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and this includes them playing 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in November. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in November — and their likely strategy for this game will be to run the football to keep Brady off the field. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Baltimore Ravens (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-19 |
Texans v. Jaguars OVER 46 |
Top |
26-3 |
Loss |
-117 |
36 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (453) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (454). THE SITUATION: Houston (5-3) has won three of their last four games after their 27-24 win over Oakland last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-4) has won two straight contests with their 29-15 win over the NY Jets last Sunday as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Texans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Houston won their game last week despite surrendering 378 yards of offense to the Raiders. The Texans have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Houston’s defense is an issue as they rank 21st in the NFL by allow gin 5.9 Yards-Per-Play — and now they have lost their star linebacker, J.J. Watt, to a season-ending pectoral injury. But this Texans team is winning because of their offense that ranks 4th in the NFL by averaging 395.0 total YPG. Head coach and acting general manager Bill O’Brien was chastised by many for the trade with the Dolphins that brought over Laremy Tunsil but he has played like a top-ten left tackle in the league while stabilizing what has too often been a leaky offensive line for star quarterback Deshaun Watson. Houston generated 388 yards of offense last week — and they have averaged 417 YPG over their last three games. Houston has then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after averaging at least 375 YPG over their last three contests. Now the Texans go on the road to London averaging a healthy 27.2 PPG along with 413.2 total YPG away from home. Jacksonville has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and this includes them playing four of these last five situations Over the Total. The Jaguars outgained the Jets in that game by +176 net yards — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Over the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least 150 net yards. Jacksonville also benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after enjoying a net turnover margin of +2 or better in their last game. And while the Jags have won four of their last six games, they have then played a decisive 50 of their last 78 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Jacksonville is getting very solid play from quarterback Gardner Minshew who is completing 61.9% of his passes while throwing 13 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. He is leading an offense that has averaged 425.7 total YPG when they are playing away from home. Minshew should have success in this Texans defense missing Watt that was already allowing 276.1 passing YPG which is 28th in the NFL. The Jaguars are very familiar with these London road trips with this being their seventh time playing in one of these specialty neutral site games. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the September 15th meeting between these two teams that Houston won at home by a 13-12 score as a 7-point favorite with the Total set at 43.5. The Jaguars have played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 3 points or less. 5* NFL London Calling Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (453) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-19 |
SMU v. Memphis OVER 71.5 |
Top |
48-54 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:44 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the SMU Mustangs (359) and the Memphis Tigers (360). THE SITUATION: SMU (8-0) remained undefeated this season with their 34-31 win at Houston as a 12-point favorite back on October 24th. Memphis (7-1) has won their last two games with their 42-41 win at Tulsa as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mustangs’ 34 points last week was their lowest scoring output all season — they had scored at least 37 points in each of their previous seven contests. SMU ranks 6th in the nation by scoring 43.0 PPG — and they rank 10th in the FBS by averaging 504.1 total YPG with a balanced offense that ranks 31st in the nation in averaging 202.8 rushing YPG and 17th in the nation in passing with their 301.4 passing YPG mark. Senior quarterback Shane Buechele has been a revelation for this team after transferring from Texas — he is completing 63.2% of his passes with 20 touchdown passes and seven interceptions with a loaded group of wide receivers. The Mustangs have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. This is a big-play offense that has registered plays of at least 40 yards sixteen times this season. The SMU defense has not been as sharp — they rank 68th in the nation by allowing 27.8 PPG while also ranking 60th in the FBS by allowing 387.6 total YPG. They allowed the depleted Houston offense with their top quarterback and wide receiver redshirting for next season to 510 yards of offense. The Mustangs have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And while SMU enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. The Mustangs stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Memphis has played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total after winning at least two straight games. The Tigers generated 498 yards in that game — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Memphis has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. Led by junior quarterback Brady White, the Tigers are 10th in the nation by averaging 39.5 PPG and they also rank 23rd in the nation by averaging 470.6 total YPG. Memphis has scored at least 35 points in six of their games while reaching at least 42 points in three of their last four games. Their lone loss was on the road at Temple against an Owls team that plays solid defense. The Tigers did surrender a whopping 584 yards last week to the Golden Hurricanes — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Memphis returns home for this big American Athletic Conference clash where they have played 35 of their last 52 home games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in November while SMU has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in November. With ESPN’s Gameday crew taking place at Memphis for this nationally televised night game, expect a wild high scoring contest. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the SMU Mustangs (359) and the Memphis Tigers (360). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-19 |
Navy v. Connecticut UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
56-10 |
Loss |
-116 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (307) and the Connecticut Huskies (308). THE SITUATION: Navy (6-1) has won four straight games after their 41-38 win over Tulane last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. Connecticut (2-6) snapped their six-game losing streak on Saturday with their 56-35 win at UMass as a 9.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Connecticut raced out to a 35-21 lead going into halftime against the Minutemen but they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after they scored at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Don’t read too much in the 542 yards of offense that the Huskies generated last week since that was against a UMass team that is last in the FBS in total defense. Take away Connecticut’s numbers in their two victories against UMass (probably wth worst team in the FBS) and Wagner (an FCS school) — and the Huskies are scoring only 15.5 PPG along with just 303.5 total YPG while never scoring more than 23 points in their six losses. Connecticut returns home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Huskies have played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 6 games as an underdog in the 21.5 to 31 point range, Connecticut has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Navy allowed 290 passing yards last week to the Green Wave — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. They also have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 37 points in their last game. First-year defensive coordinator Brian Newberry has the Midshipmen defense playing at a very high level once again — they are 19th in the FBS by allowing only 19.3 PPG while also ranking 22nd in the nation by giving up just 310.3 total YPG. They will be encountering a freshman quarterback in Jack Zergiotis who was helped out last week by running back Kevin Mensah who rushed for 164 yards while reaching the end zone five times. Head coach Randy Edsall wants his team to play physical where they control the Time of Possession: they are averaging 33 minutes per game on offense after holding the ball for 34:58 last week against UMass. But they now face a Navy defense that limits opposing rushers to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking 18th in the nation by allowing only 109.6 rushing YPG. And the Midshipmen formula for success is also controlling the clock as they average 33:39 minutes with the ball per game. Navy has generated 454 and 457 yards over their last two games while averaging 6.98 Yards-Per-Play and 7.25 YPP in those contests. The Midshipmen have then played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in two straight games — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Navy has also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: The Midshipmen’s spread triple option has propelled them to leading the nation by averaging 350.7 rushing YPG — and this is how they control the Time of Possession statistic. Navy only passed for 68 yards last week — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after failing to pass for at least 125 yards in their last game. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (307) and the Connecticut Huskies (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-19 |
49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5 |
|
28-25 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Arizona Cardinals (302). THE SITUATION: Arizona (3-4-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 31-9 win at New Orleans as an 11-point underdog. San Francisco (7-0) remained undefeated this year with their 51-13 blowout win over Carolina as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. San Francisco is playing elite-level defense this season — they lead the NFL by allowing only 224.4 total YPG while ranking second in the league by allowing just 11.0 PPG. The Niners have not allowed more than 13 points in each of their last four games. In their last three games, San Francisco is allowing just 6.7 PPG and 183.0 total YPG. Furthermore, the 230 yards of offense that the Panthers gained last week was the most that the 49ers have allowed in their last four games — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in at least two straight games. On offense, San Francisco is scoring 29.6 PPG along with averaging 387.3 total YPG — but those numbers drop to a 25.2 PPG scoring mark on the road where their yardage average drops almost 30 yards to 360.5 total YPG. The Niners have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. San Francisco has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Niners have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Arizona has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Cardinals managed only 237 total yards of offense last week against the Saints — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. Arizona returns home where they are scoring only 22.7 PPG — and they have averaged just 308.0 total YPG over their last three contests. The Cardinals have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Arizona has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow NFC West opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total when playing in Arizona. 10* NFL San Francisco-Arizona Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Arizona Cardinals (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-19 |
West Virginia v. Baylor OVER 56 |
|
14-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (305) and the Baylor Bears (306). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (3-4) has lost three straight games with their 52-14 loss at Oklahoma two Saturdays ago s a 33-point underdog. Baylor (7-0) remained undefeated back on October 19th with their 45-27 upset win at Oklahoma State as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. First-year head coach Neal Brown is having the most problems with his defense ranks 110th in the FBS by allowing 33.4 PPG. West Virginia allowed 560 yards of offense to the Sooners — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers managed only 242 yards of offense in that game — and thee Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. West Virginia only rushed for 51 yards against Oklahoma but they have then played 17 of their last 20 games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers only rushed for 41 yards in their previous game against Iowa State — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in two straight games. Now West Virginia stays on the road where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total. Baylor generated 536 yards against the Cowboys in their upset win two Saturdays ago. The Bears averaged 9.93 Yards-Per-Play in that game — and they have then played 28 of their last 42 games Over the Total after averaging at least 7.2 YPP in their last game. Baylor is 12th in the nation by scoring 38.9 PPG. The Bears are also 27th in the FBS by averaging 281.4 passing YPG. They have averaged 310.7 passing YPG over their last three games — and they have played 24 of their last 35 games Over the Total after averaging at least 300 passing YPG over their last three games. Now Baylor returns home where they are scoring 51.5 PPG along with 476.0 total YPG. The Bears have played 12 of their last 14 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Baylor has also played 36 of their last 55 home games when favored — and this includes them playing 6 of these last 8 situations Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total. 10* CFB West Virginia-Baylor ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (305) and the Baylor Bears (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-30-19 |
Nationals v. Astros OVER 7.5 |
Top |
6-2 |
Win
|
103 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: Washington (104-74) forced a climactic seventh game of the World Series tonight with their 7-2 victory over the Astros. Houston (117-62) gets to host the final game of the 2019 MLB season.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win — and the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Washington has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. And while Stephen Strasburg pitching into the 9th inning last night, the Nationals have then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen did not pitch more than one earned run. Moving forward, the Over is 8-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 10 games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. Washington has also played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range — and they have played 7 of their last 8 playoff games Over the Total when the series is tied. Scherzer has declared himself ready to pitch tonight after needing to be scratched just three days ago after waking up to severe neck pain Sunday morning. I have read some of the commentary from the medical community regarding how quick someone can achieve full health again after experiencing an injury like this: some doctors have claimed that quick turnarounds from what Scherzer experienced are possible. But “possible” is not the same thing as probable. I am not going to be surprised if Scherzer is not at full strength — especially given the back issues he has experienced for the last few months. The phenom had an 11-7 record in the regular season with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in twenty-seven starts. Scherzer was not as effective in night games during the regular season — he had a 0.75 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in day games but those numbers rose to a 3.04 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in seventeen starts at night during the regular season. He takes the mound for the first time since last Tuesday — and the Nationals have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when Scherzer is pitching with at least seven days between starts. The Over is 18-7-2 in Houston’s last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Over is also 10-3-1 in the Astros’ last 14 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, Houston has played 11 of their last 13 home games Over the Total in Interleague play against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight games at home Over the Total. They counter with Greinke who was 18-5 in thirty-three regular-season starts with a 2.93 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. He saw his ERA rise to a 3.27 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP in his fifteen starts at home in the regular season. His teams have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with Greinke pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Greinke faces a Nationals team that has seen the Over go 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Over go 5-1-1 in their last 7 meetings — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total when playing in Houston. 25* MLB World Series Game Seven O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-29-19 |
Nationals v. Astros OVER 7 |
|
7-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (911) and the Houston Astros (912) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander. THE SITUATION: Houston (117-61) took a 3-2 lead in this series on Sunday with their 7-1 victory in Game Five of the World Series. Washington (103-74) will try to become the first team in Major League Baseball history to win a World Series without winning a game at home.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 3-1-1 in the Astros’ last 5 games after a win. And while Houston has held Washington to only one run in three straight games, they have then played 39 of their last 64 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in two straight games. The Astros return home where the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games. Houston has also played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total in Interleague play. They give the ball to ver Verlander who may be showing the wear of a 36-year old who has logged-in 253 1/3 innings already this season. In his last four starts, Verlander is 0-3 with a 5.41 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP. And while Verlander has enjoyed some spectacular moments in the playoffs throughout his career, he has struggled in the World Series with an 0-5 record along with a 5.73 ERA in six career starts. Houston has played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with Verlander pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range. The Over is also 4-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Over is also 16-7-5 in Washington’s last 28 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Over is also 7-1-1 in their last 9 games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. They counter with Strasburg who was 18-6 in thirty-three regular-season starts with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. The right-hander was not as effective on the road where his ERA rose to a 3.39 mark along with a 1.11 WHIP in nineteen regular-season starts. Furthermore, Strasburg had a 3.67 ERA in his twenty starts at night. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games in Interleague play Over the Total with Strasburg on the mound. They also have played 29 of their last 45 games Over the Total with Strasburg pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. The Nationals have also played 4 straight games Over the Total with Strasburg pitching against the Astros.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 16-4-2 in Washington’s last 22 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 6-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 3* MLB Washington-Houston Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (911) and the Houston Astros (912) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-19 |
Dolphins v. Steelers UNDER 44.5 |
|
14-27 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). THE SITUATION: Miami (277) has lost their first six games of the season after their 31-21 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 17-point underdog. Pittsburgh (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6-point underdog two weeks ago back on October 13th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Miami has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Dolphins defense did not play too poorly — they held the Bills to just 305 total yards. This unit seems to be improving under head coach Brian Flores as they have held their last three opponents to just 335.3 total YPG. The former New England defensive coordinator also tapped Ryan Fitzpatrick as his starting quarterback last week — and he completed 23 of 35 passes for 282 yards while leading the offense to 381 total yards. But Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But this remains a Dolphins offense that is last in the NFL by scoring only 10.5 PPG and averaging just 258.7 total YPG. Miami stays on the road where they have played 13 of the last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 10.5 to 14 points. The Dolphins have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And while Miami has covered the point spread just twice this season, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Pittsburgh has played a decisive 36 of their last 52 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They also have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. The Steelers are averaging just 276.5 total YPG which is 29th in the NFL. After third-string QB Devlin Hodges was under center against the Chargers, head coach Mike Tomlin has named Mason Rudolph back as the starting quarterback after he cleared the concussion protocol. Rudolph is averaging only 178.3 passing YPG in his three starts this season with the coaching staff not comfortable in risking him taking chances down the field. The Pittsburgh defense has played much better as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG along with only 292.3 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Miami-Pittsburgh ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-19 |
Packers v. Chiefs UNDER 48 |
Top |
31-24 |
Loss |
-104 |
9 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (275) and the Kansas City Chiefs (276). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-1) has won three straight games after their 42-24 win over Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (5-2) snapped a two-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 30-6 win at Denver as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Green Bay surrendered 329 passing yards to the Raiders, they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The improved Packers defense is 9th in the NFL by allowing just 19.9 PPG — and that number drops to just 13.5 PPG in their two games on the road. But the Green Bay offense is scoring only 22.0 PPG on the road while averaging just 274.0 total YPG away from home. QB Aaron Rodgers will likely still be without his top target in wide receiver Davante Adams who is listed as doubtful with his turf toe injury. The Packers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Green Bay has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Packers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Chiefs have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least three touchdowns. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes will not be able to play in this game with his knee injury — so it will be Matt Moore under center for this team. While Moore was slid in relief last week by completing 10 of 11 passes for 76 yards, the journeyman is a big drop off in talent from what head coach Andy Reid can do with his offense with the mobile Mahomes under center. Remember, Moore was still on the street unsigned with a team when training camp started. But while Mahomes gets a vast majority of the attention with this team, what has gone under the radar is the improved play of their defense under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Over their last three games, the Chiefs have allowed only 18.7 PPG along with just 336.0 total YPG. KC returns home where they have played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: It has not been often that the Chiefs have played at home with the Total not in the 50s in the Mahomes era. Kansas City has played 51 of their last 80 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and this includes them playing 7 of their last 10 home games below the number in that range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (275) and the Kansas City Chiefs (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-19 |
Astros v. Nationals OVER 7.5 |
Top |
7-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (909) and the Washington Nationals (910) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Joe Ross. THE SITUATION: Houston (116-61) evened the World Series at 2-2 last night with their 8-1 victory. Washington (103-73) had planned on using Max Scherzer tonight in a rematch of the pitching matchup in Game One of this series but his nagging neck issues have compelled manager Dave Martinez to scratch him tonight for Ross.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals managed only four base hits last night but they have played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total after not managing more than four base hits in their last game. Washington has also played 14 of their last 18 home games Over the Total after failing to score more than once in their last game — and the Over is 16-7-4 in their last 27 games after failing to score more than twice in their last contest. Additionally, the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. Ross presents a problem given his 5.48 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 64 innings during the regular season. He particularly struggled at home where he had a 7.63 ERA in 30 2/3 innings of work with a 2.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .346. Martinez has trusted Ross to pitch only two innings in this postseason before tonight. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Ross making the start against an American League opponent — and they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total with Ross pitching after a game where they allowed at least five runs. Martinez will have to lean on his bullpen tonight — and that group has a 5.64 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP at home this year. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs Over the Total — and the Over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games against an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last contest. Cole was hit hard in Game One of the World Series as he allowed five runs in 7 innings of work. Was it nerves? The toll of 242 innings of work for the season? The extended seven days between starts? Two of those reasons are not good signs for him tonight. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Cole pitching after a game where they scored at least five runs. The Nationals have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Washington. 25* MLB World Series Game Five O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (909) and the Washington Nationals (910) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Joe Ross. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Astros v. Nationals OVER 8.5 |
|
8-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (907) and the Washington Nationals (908) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Patrick Corbin. THE SITUATION: Houston (115-61) won the first game of the World Series last night with their 4-1 victory over the Nationals. Washington (103-72) hosts Game Four tonight with a 2-1 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Astros and Nationals left a frustrating 10 and 12 runners on base respectively last night (ruining our Over play). Washington has played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. Additionally, the Nationals have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 24 home games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They give the ball to Corbin who had a 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three starts in the regular season. The left-hander saw his numbers climb a bit when pitching at night where he had a 3.26 ERA along with a 1.24 WHIP in twenty-four starts. Corbin has struggled in his first postseason where he has a 6.91 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings of work in six appearances including two starts. The Over is 3-0-1 in Washington’s last 4 home games with Corbin on the hill. Houston sends out Urquidy who was 2-1 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 41 regular-season innings. He saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 4.12 and 1.32 marks on the road during the regular season. In his 4 1/3 innings in these playoffs, Urquidy has a 2.08 ERA — but his 1.85 WHIP due to six base hits allowed is a concern. Furthermore, he has only pitched 47 and 45 pitches in his previous two playoff appearances so the Astros will be leaning heavily on their bullpen that has a 4.07 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP in their last seven games. Washington is still scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .282 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .792 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 20 meetings Over the Total when playing in Washington. 20* MLB Houston-Washington Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (907) and the Washington Nationals (908) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Patrick Corbin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Colorado State v. Fresno State UNDER 56.5 |
Top |
41-31 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (155) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (156). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (2-5) takes the field again after their bye week after their 35-21 win at New Mexico as a 5-point favorite back on October 11th. Fresno State (3-3) comes off a 56-27 win over UNLV last Saturday as a 16-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total after a win at home by at least 17 points. Fresno State has also played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Bulldogs defense has been a disappointment this season after they allowed only 321.6 total YPG which was 17th in the nation. Six starters are back from that unit but they are allowing 370.3 total YPG which is 54th best in the FBS. That number does drop to just 346.3 total YPG in their three games at home this season which helps explain why they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, Fresno State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Colorado State has played 5 straight games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Junior quarterback Patrick O’Brien completed 25 of 34 passes for 420 yards against the hapless Lobos defense two weeks ago while leading the Rams’ offense to 551 total yards of offense. But Colorado State has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after passing for at least 350 yards — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last contest. The Rams are averaging a robust 470.1 total YPG this season which is 21st best in the nation — but that number does drop almost by 30 when they are playing on the road where they are averaging 442.2 total YPG. Colorado State ranks 13th in the nation by allowing just 177.0 passing YPG but that number has been skewed a bit by them playing some run-oriented opponents. Teams can run on the Rams defense as they rank 121st in the nation by allowing 220.7 rushing YPG. New Mexico rushed for 256 yards against them while outgaining them on the ground by +125 net rushing yards — and this focus on the rushing game helped keep the clock moving to achieve the Under in that game. Colorado State has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 125 yards in their last contest. Over their last three games. head coach Mike Bobo’s team is scoring only 23.0 PPG while averaging just 360.7 total YPG — but they have also only allowed 26.3 PPG (-8.0 PPG below their season average) along with just 342.3 total YPG (-55.4 net YPG below their season average).
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has played 6 straight games in Mountain West Conference play Under the Total — and Fresno State has played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total in MWC play. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* CFB ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (155) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (156). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Texas v. TCU UNDER 58 |
|
27-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (187) and the TCU Horned Frogs (188). THE SITUATION: Texas (5-2) looks to build off their 50-48 win over Kansas as a 20-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (3-3) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 24-17 loss at Kansas State as a 3.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a victory over a Big 12 rival. Texas has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least 35 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. The Longhorns need to tighten things up on the defensive side of the football after allowing 569 yards in their last game. Texas has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 475 yards in their last game. Now the Longhorns go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total. TCU has played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after a loss to a Big 12 rival — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread defeat. Additionally, the Horned Frogs have paled 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 7 points or less to a conference opponent. TCU has not forced a turnover in three straight games — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after not forcing a turnover in at least two straight games. Additionally, the Horned Frogs have played 20 of their last 29 Big 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in October.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight encounters Under the Total. Expect another lower scoring game. 3* CFB Texas-TCU Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (187) and the TCU Horned Frogs (188). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-19 |
USC v. Colorado UNDER 64.5 |
Top |
35-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (105) and the Colorado Buffaloes (106). THE SITUATION: USC (4-3) snapped their two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 41-14 win over Arizona at home as a 10.5-point favorite. Colorado (3-4) has lost there straight games after their 41-10 loss at Washington State as a 13.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. USC has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. This Trojans team has been riddled with injuries which leaves them with a freshman at quarterback and tailback for tonight’s game. True freshman Kedon Slovis is under center for the team after the injuries to sophomore quarterbacks J.T. Daniels and Jack Sears. At running back, injuries junior Stephen Carr, junior Vavaeu Malepeai, and freshman Markese Stepp who is not out three to five weeks with an ankle injury leave the primary rushing duties to freshman Kenan Christon. Admittedly, Slovis has played well this season and Christon had 100 rushing yards last week but the challenge will be different for these inexperienced players when playing in a hostile environment — especially in a televised night game. While USC averages 30.7 PPG and 434.1 total YPG this season, those numbers drop to just 22.7 PPG along with 417.7 total YPG. The Trojans have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, USC has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against Pac-12 opponents — and they have also played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Colorado is struggling on offense after gaining only 320 yards against the Cougars defense last week. The Buffaloes are averaging just 14.3 PPG along with only 371.7 total YPG which are both well below their 26.6 PPG and 407.7 total YPG averages. Colorado has then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Buffaloes have allowed at least 31 points in four straight games — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. Colorado does return home after playing two straight games as well as three of their last four games on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And while the Buffaloes surrendered 368 passing yards to Washington State last week, they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado has played 14 of the last 20 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in October. First-year head coach Mel Tucker was an outstanding defensive coordinator at Georgia and Alabama so I still have confidence he will get his young defense to play better in the second half of the season. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (105) and the Colorado Buffaloes (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-19 |
Astros v. Nationals OVER 7.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (905) and the Washington Nationals (906) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Washington (103-71) took a 2-0 lead in the World Series on Wednesday with their 12-3 victory over the Astros. The Nationals have won eight straight games as well as eighteen of their last twenty contests. Houston (114-61) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Washington has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an off day. Additionally, the Nationals have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning at least five straight games, Furthermore, Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games when facing an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. And while the Nationals have not allowed more than four runs in eight straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in four straight games. Washington returns home where they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 4 straight games in Interleague play Over the Total at home. And in their last 24 home games when listed in the +/- 125 range, the Nationals have played 17 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Sanchez who was 11-8 with a 3.85 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in thirty regular-season starts. The right-hander was not as effective at home where he had a 4.24 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in fifteen regular-season starts. And while Sanchez comes off 7 2/3 innings of shutout ball in his last start way back on October 11th at St. Louis, Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Sanchez looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces an Astros team that has played 4 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Houston is hitting only .203 over their last five games — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after hitting no better than .225 over their last five games. The Astros’ bullpen surrendered eight runs (five earned) on Wednesday — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total when their bullpen allowed at least five earned runs in their last game. Additionally, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Greinke who was 18-5 in the regular season with a 2.93 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in thirty-three starts. But the right-hander has struggled in this postseason where he has an 0-2 record with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 14 innings of work. Greinke’s teams have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the playoffs. He faces a Nationals team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .277 batting average along with a .338 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .808 during that span. Washington has played 4 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing in Washington. The Nationals have also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Over the Total when leading in the playoff series. 25* MLB Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (905) and the Washington Nationals (906) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-24-19 |
Clippers v. Warriors OVER 226.5 |
|
141-122 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (531) and the Golden State Warriors (532). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-0) looks to build off their 112-102 upset win against the Lakers on Tuesday as a 3.5-point underdog. Golden State (0-0) makes its debut to the 2019 regular season tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Warriors will be playing their first regular-season game in their new Chase Center home arena tonight. First and foremost, I am interested in how quickly the Golden State players got comfortable in this environment. Golden State made 123 of their 277 shot attempts in their three preseason games at home for a 44.4% shooting percentage. The Warriors have also made 48 of their 125 shots from behind the arc in their new building for a 38.4% shooting percentage. Those numbers contrast Golden State’s 49.1% overall field goal percentage last season which included them making 38.5% from the 3-point line — so while the overall shooting is down, the 3-point shooting did not level off even without the departed Kevin Durant and the injured Klay Thompson. Frankly, Golden State struggled in their first preseason game of the year which was also at home against the Lakers where they made just 35 of their 89 shot attempts while making only 11 of their 42 shots from behind the arc. In their final two games at home on October 10th and October 18th, the Warriors shot a combined 46.8% from the field while nailing 43.5% of their 3-pointers. How did Stephen Curry fare in these games? Curry averaged 30 PPG in his three preseason games at home while making 56% of his shots from the field and 13 of his 29 shots from behind the arc for a 44.8% shooting mark from 3-point land. And after struggling with a 5 for 11 opening night in his new building where he made just 1 of 5 shots from downtown, Curry then averaged 36 PPG while making 23 of his 39 shots for a 59.0% shooting percentage while nailing 50% of his 24 shots from behind the arc. I think these Warriors are going to play as fast as ever with their young roster while launching even more 3s. Their defense also takes a big hit with both Durant and Thompson no longer defending one of the opponent’s top three players (depending on how Kerr wanted to deploy Draymond Green). Additionally, Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest with their last preseason game being last Friday. The Warriors have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Los Angeles added Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to their playoff roster from last season — and while George is out with a shoulder injury, the core of last year’s group remains this season with the obvious upgrade with Leonard (for this game, at least, with George unavailable). I am comfortable looking at the Clippers team trends from last year where they played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total after a win over a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset win over a divisional rival. Los Angeles has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Furthermore, the Clippers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 29 of their last 42 games as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total from last year’s playoffs. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (531) and the Golden State Warriors (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-24-19 |
Redskins v. Vikings UNDER 42 |
Top |
9-19 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (101) and the Minnesota Vikings (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-6) enters this short week coming off a 9-0 loss at home in torrential rain against San Francisco as a 10-point underdog. Minnesota (5-2) has won three straight games with their 42-30 win at Detroit last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a victory on the road versus an NFC North rival. Minnesota has also played 6 straight games Under the Total at home after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Ever since Adam Thielen called out quarterback Kirk Cousins to stop being so cautious with his passing, the offense has taken a step to the next level as the Vikings have scored 36 PPG while averaging 480 total Yards-Per-Game over that span. But the Vikings have played 39 of their last 56 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 30 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after averaging at least 450 YPG over their last three games. Minnesota generated 502 yards of offense against the Lions last week — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Unfortunately for Cousins on this short week, he will not have the services of Thielen who has been declared out for this game with his hamstring injury. Thielen has become Cousins' most reliable target and has already caught six touchdown passes this year — and his absence exposes the lack of the third reliable target after Stefon Diggs with this offense. Head coach Mike Zimmer will want his defense to tighten things up after allowing 433 to Detroit last week. The Vikings gave played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Minnesota ranks 6th in the NFL respectively by allowing 17.6 PPG and just 327.9 total YPG. The Vikings are the only team in the league to finish in the top-four in total defense for three straight seasons. Minnesota returns home where they have played 5 of the last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. Washington will struggle to score points tonight as they have scored only 27 combined points over their last four games — and they have not scored more than 17 points in five straight games. The Skins have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The problems start on their offensive line where the team misses left tackle Trent Williams who continues his holdout to escape the franchise. Washington then lacks reliable receivers with tight end Jordan Reed injured once again this season and wideouts Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson not legitimate number one or number two options. The Vikings will feel confident to stuff the box to slow down the Washington rushing attack that interim head coach Bill Callahan has made clear is his priority with his offense. Quarterback Case Keenum is in the bottom-ten in most passing categories this season. The Skins are rank 12.9 PPG this season while averaging 267.6 total YPG which ranks 30th and 29th in the league. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total.
TOTAL DEFENSE: There is talent on the Washington defense who should feel pretty good about themselves after limiting the 49ers offense to just 283 total yards (albeit it in terrible weather conditions). The Skins have played 6 straight games Under the Total including their 33-7 loss to New England for Sunday Night Football back on October 6th. Expect a result similar to that finds a way to stay below the number. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (101) and the Minnesota Vikings (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-24-19 |
SMU v. Houston UNDER 65.5 |
Top |
34-31 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between SMU Mustangs (103) and the Houston Cougars (104). THE SITUATION: SMU (7-0) remained undefeated this season with their 45-21 win at home against Temple as a 9-point favorite on Saturday. Houston (3-4) enters this game coming off a 24-17 win at UConn as a 21-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars changed their priorities this season after their 38-31 loss at Tulane that dropped them to 1-3 this season. First-year head coach was then reported to ask a number of his players to redshirt the rest of the season so as they could retain their eligibility for next season. Senior quarterback D’Eriq King and senior wide receiver Keith Corbin were two of the players to decide to remain their eligibility for next season. Some have called this the college version of tanking although Houston has since won two of their last three games. Frankly, Holgorsen still has every incentive to win games — especially on national television — to help with recruiting. But he needs to change his style of play with his top playmakers on offense being saved for next season. His son, Logan, was the starter last week against the Huskies where they managed only 286 yards of offense against a UConn team that had allowed at least 31 points in their previous five games. The freshman will likely give way to sophomore Clayton Thune who was out that game with a hamstring injury. The sophomore is completing only 53.2% of his passes this season. Holgorsen has seen his offense pass the ball less since King redshirted as Houston has attempted 20, 30, and 18 passes in each of their last three games. The Cougars have run the ball in 61% of their plays from scrimmage since the King and Corbin redshirt decisions — and running the football will likely remain the formula tonight to keep the powerful Mustangs offense off the field. Houston has averaged 355.7 total YPG over their last three games which is almost 40 YPG below their 393.6 total YPG season average. The Cougars have seen better numbers on defense in those three games as they have held those opponents to 26.7 PPG along with 429.3 total YPG which is high but is still over 40 yards below their 470.3 total YPG average for the season. Houston has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. The Cougars have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. SMU has seen improved play with their defense as well this season with nine starters and eight of their top eleven tacklers from last year back. The Mustangs allowed 35.3 PPG along with 429.8 total YPG last year — and those numbers have dropped to a 27.3 PPG mark this season along with 370.1 total YPG (54th in the FBS). After not allowing more than 32 points in five of their last six games last season, SMU has allowed more than 30 points just twice this year. The Mustangs have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning two straight games against conference opponents. And while senior quarterback Shane Buechele attempted 53 passes last week, SMU has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after attempted at least 50 passes in their last game. And while the Mustangs generated 655 yards of offense against the Owls last week, they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. Additionally, SMU has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total played on field turf — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October.
FINAL TAKE: Even undermanned, the Cougars will be fired up to play this game after they were upset by the Mustangs by a 45-31 scored as a two-touchdown favorite last November. These two teams have now played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. With the Total set in the upper-60s, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between SMU Mustangs (103) and the Houston Cougars (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-19 |
Nationals v. Astros UNDER 7 |
|
12-3 |
Loss |
-106 |
7 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the Houston Astros (904) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander. THE SITUATION: Washington (102-71) won the opening game of the World Series last night by a 5-4 score. While the Nationals have won seven straight games, Houston (114-60) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It looked like both starting pitchers last night, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole, were a bit nervous pitching in their first World Series game. Nerves will likely not play a role for Verlander who starred for the Astros in their World Series championship two years ago. In his career, Verlander has a 14-9 record with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 168 2/3 innings of work which includes 28 starts in 29 game appearances. Verlander has a 3.70 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP in 24 1/3 innings of work while striking out 29 batters and walking just eight. Remember that Verlander had a bad outing in the fifth game of the ALDS against Tampa Bay when he was asked to start on just three days rest for the first time in his postseason career. He is pitching on his normal four days rest tonight — and Houston has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss with Verlander looking to end that losing streak. The right-hander had a 21-6 record in thirty-four regular-season starts with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP — and he had a 2.34 ERA in seventeen starts at home. The Under is 14-5-1 in the Astros’ last 20 home games with Verlander on the mound — and Houston has played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with Verlander facing a team with a winning record. The Astros have also played 13 of their last 17 home games with Verlander when priced as a favorite at -151 or higher. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-1 in Houston’s last 9 games after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Astros have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against a National League team with a winning record. Washington has played 5 of their last 7 games in Interleague play against on the road. The Nationals have also played 6 of their last 8 road games in the playoffs Under the Total — and the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Strasburg who is 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in thirty-three starts in the regular season. Strasburg has been outstanding in the playoffs — he has a 3-0 record in four starts in this postseason with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. For his career, Strasburg has a 1.10 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP in seven games spanning 41 innings. The right-hander pitched allowed only one unearned run in 7 innings of work in his last start back on October 23rd against St. Louis — and the Under is 5-2-1 in the Nationals last 8 games with Strasburg looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a slumping Houston lineup who are scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .193 batting average along with a .289 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .621 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have still played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total when playing in Houston’s Minute Maid Park even after last night. 20* MLB Washington-Houston Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the Houston Astros (904) listing both starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-23-19 |
Wolves v. Nets UNDER 229.5 |
Top |
127-126 |
Loss |
-113 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (575) and the Brooklyn Nets (576). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-0) comes off a 36-46 campaign last year which was 11th best in the Western Conference. Brooklyn (0-0) made the playoffs last season with a 42-40 before losing the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs to Philadelphia.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves needed to improve their defense after allowing 112.9 PPG last season. Getting forward Robert Covington back for an entire season will certainly help their interior defensive. The defensive stalwart came over in last year’s blockbuster Jimmy Butler deal but he missed 42 games last season with injuries. Minnesota also added an outstanding defensive player in guard Jarrett Culver with the sixth pick in the NBA draft after he was a key defensive cog for the stingy Texas Tech teams over the last two years. The T-Wolves are led by Karl-Anthony Towns who averaged 24.4 PPG but they need Andrew Wiggins or someone else to step up to be a reliable second scoring option. Minnesota closed out last season with 6 straight Unders when playing on the road. The Timberwolves have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams from the Atlantic Division. Brooklyn significantly upgraded their roster in the offseason with the additions of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving but they will have to wait until the 2020-21 season before seeing Durant make his debut given his torn ACL in the NBA Finals last June. The Nets did lose some scoring punch with the loss of DeAngelo Russell who joined Golden State in the offseason. Brooklyn also added an outstanding rim protector in center DeAndre Jordan. The Nets concluded their preseason schedule last Friday against Toronto — and they played 5 of their last 7 regular season games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Brooklyn has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home. And in their last 5 games played in the Barclays Center between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: I am willing to upgrade this play to a 25* ranking because the team trends that remain relevant from last season are supported by an empirical situational angle specific to the opening games of the NBA regular season. In games between non-conference opponents who ended last season with a 40 to 49% winning percentage, these games finished Under the Total in 55 of these last 77 situations. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (575) and the Brooklyn Nets (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-22-19 |
Nationals v. Astros UNDER 7 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-125 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the Houston Astros (902) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole. THE SITUATION: Washington (101-71) takes the field again after completing their four-game sweep of St. Louis with their 7-4 win on October 15th. Houston (114-59) has won four of their last five games after their 6-4 win over the Yankees on Saturday in the sixth game of the ALCS. The Astros host the first two games of the World Series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 6-2-2 in the Nationals’ last 10 opening games to a new series — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new playoff series. Washington has played two straight games that finished Over the Total — but they have then played 21 of their last 33 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Additionally, the Nationals have played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total — and the Under is 39-14-4 in their last 57 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Washington has also played 25 of their last 37 road games Under the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They give the ball to Scherzer who was 11-7 in the regular season with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in twenty-seven regular-season starts. Scherzer was bothered by a sore back that kept him on the disabled list through the month of August but he has found his elite form again in this postseason. In 20 innings of work in these playoffs, Scherzer has a 1.80 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP while striking out 27 batters and walking just eight. He comes off 7 shutout innings in his last start against the Cardinals back on October 12th — and the Under is 5-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 7 games with Scherzer looking to follow up a Quality Start. Scherzer was also more effective on the road during the regular season with a 2.64 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twelve starts. The Under is 3-1-1 in Washington’s last 5 road starts with Scherzer facing a team with a winning record. Houston is struggling with their bats as they are scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .189 batting average along with a .279 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .618. The Astros have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home against teams from the National League. The Under is also 3-1-1 in Houston’s last 5 home games against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Cole who is 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in thirty-three starts in the regular season. The right-hander was more effective at home where he had a 0.79 WHIP and .175 opponent’s batting average in seventeen starts as opposed to his 1.02 WHIP and .199 opponent’s batting average on the road. Cole has a 0.40 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP in three starts in this postseason over a span of 22 2/3 innings of work. Cole has struck out 32 batters while walking eight in those three starts. He comes off seven shutout innings himself in his last start last Tuesday — and the Under is 4-1-1 in the Astros’ last 6 games with Scherzer following up a Quality Start.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Houston. Expect a pitcher’s duel tonight. 25* MLB World Series Game One O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the Houston Astros (902) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-19 |
Patriots v. Jets UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
33-0 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the New York Jets (476). THE SITUATION: New England (6-0) comes off a 35-14 win at the New York Giants as a 16.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago back on October 10th. New York (1-4) looks to build off their 24-22 upset win at home against Dallas last Sunday as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Under in that Patriots game against the Giants — and with both teams scoring on a defensive touchdown along with New England blocking a punt for another 6-yard touchdown, that play was spoiled. Where was one more defensive/special teams touchdown in the second half of last night’s game?!? Defensive touchdowns and special teams touchdowns go a long way for results to find the Over. However, it would also be Fool’s Gold to be chasing or expecting non-offensive touchdowns to play a role in the next particular game at hand. The Patriots have scored three defensive touchdowns this season while adding another two touchdowns from special teams. For our purposes, while New England is averaging 31.7 PPG this season — that number drops to just 25.9 PPG when taking away those five non-offensive touchdowns. Surprisingly, the reigning Super Bowl champions have also surrendered three defensive touchdowns this season. That means that while they lead the NFL by a mile by allowing just 8.0 PPG — that number drops to an incredible 4.5 PPG when only accounting for scoring allowed by their outstanding defense. The Patriots are also second in the NFL by allowing only 234.7 total YPG — and they rank second in run defense (73.7 rushing YPG) and pass defense (161.0 passing YPG). Tom Brady completed 31 of 41 passes last week against the Giants for 334 yards while leading the offense to 427 yards — but New England has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards. Brady will not have Josh Gordon and Rex Burkhead as targets tonight with both players being out with injuries. The Patriots stay on the road where they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. New England has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. New York dusted off their real playbook for Sam Darnold last week after first-year head coach Adam Gace put his real offense under wraps after his quarterback was injured in the opening game of the season. Darnold completed 23 of 32 passes for 338 yards while leading the Jets’ offense to 382 total yards — but now Bill Belichick has had a full week to study Gace’s preferred plays. The Jets are still averaging just 205 Yards-Per-Game over their last three contests — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not averaging more than 225 total YPG over their last three games. While Darold’s return helps this offense, the Jets are struggling to run the football as they are 31st in the league by averaging just 64.0 rushing YPG. They only managed 56 rushing yards last week with Darnold back under center and they have not rushed for more than 67 yards in their last three games. New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in three straight games. The Jets stay at home for this game where they are only allowing 20.7 PPG. New York gets an appearance on Monday Night Football where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Patriots 30-14 win over the Jets back on September 22nd. New England has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against AFC East opponents — and New York has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against AFC East divisional rivals. These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at the Jets’ MetLife Stadium. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the New York Jets (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-21-19 |
Arsenal v. Sheffield United UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
105 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200077) and Sheffield United (20008). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (4W-3D-1L) returns to English Premier League action after the international break from a 1-0 victory over Bournemouth back on October 6th. Sheffield United (2W-3D-3L) comes off a 0-0 draw at Watford back on October 5th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arsenal is unbeaten in their last five matches as they have embraced more defensive tactics under second-year manager Unai Emery. The Gunners have scored only one goal in their last two matches while conceding just two goals. The offensive attack has been limited with forward Alexandre Lacazette being injured — and he will be on the bench for this match. Arsenal also has Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang who is a prolific scorer but who also has a low ceiling regarding his potential offensive output. Aubemeyang has not registered more than two shots on target in a match all season. The Gunners are 6th in the league by averaging 13.5 shots per game — but that number drops significantly to just 8.5 shots per game when they are playing on the road which is 10th in the EPL. Arsenal also averages just 3.5 shots on target per match on the road which is also 10th in the league. They now face a feisty Sheffield United side which is tied for first with only seven goals conceded this season. While this team was promoted from the Championship League last season, this is a dangerous team under manager Chris Wilder who played Liverpool to a narrow 1-0 loss earlier this year. Sheffield has allowed only two goals in their last two matches — but they have also scored only two goals in those four matches while being shut out three times. Sheffield has scored only seven times in their eight matches which is third to last in the league. They average just 9.8 shots per match which is third-to-last. Furthermore, this side averages 2.5 shots on target per match which is the second-fewest in the league — and that number only climbs to a 2.8 mark at home which is also 19th of the twenty team league. In their four home matches, Sheffield has scored only two goals — but they have conceded just four goals. And in their two matches against Power Six clubs this season, Sheffield has allowed only three combined goals.
FINAL TAKE: Sheffield United will be very happy to deploy their defensive tactics to engage in another low-scoring match that they can perhaps steal with a goal on the counter-attack. Arsenal does not play aggressively in hostile environments — Emery’s approach will likely be to have his team stick around until the skill of Aubemeyang eventually finds the back of the net. This is a great formula for a lower scoring match. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200077) and Sheffield United (20008). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-20-19 |
Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 48 |
Top |
10-37 |
Loss |
-117 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their 38-20 loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (3-3) has lost three straight games after their 24-22 upset loss at New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last games Over the Total after a point spread defeat. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Eagles are dealing with a host of injuries on defense — and, while corner Jalen Mills appears likely to take the field again tonight, his sidekick, Ronald Darby remains questionable with his hamstring injury. Philadelphia is allowing their home hosts to score 29.7 PPG while averaging 435.0 total YPG. But the Eagles offense did generate 400 yards in defeat last week. Over their last three games, Philadelphia has scored 28.3 PPG. Now they stay on the road where they have played 24 of their last 34 road games Over the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as a small underdog of up to 3 points. The Eagles have also played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have suffered three straight upset losses which should ensure they are feisty with desperation in this contest. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after suffering two straight point spread losses — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after two straight upset losses. The Cowboys offense has sputtered as of late as they have scored only 18.7 PPG in their losing streak — but they are getting healthier again for this game. Left tackle Tyron Smith has been upgraded to probable with his ankle injury — and wide receivers Amari Cooper and Reggie Cobb along with guard Zack Martin have all been upgraded to probable for tonight. Dallas did generate 399 yards of offense last week in defeat — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cowboys return home where they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 511.0 total YPG. But they are also giving up 362.7 total YPG at home which is more than 30 YPG higher than their season average. Dallas has played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 3 points. The Cowboys have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: This is a crucial game for both teams in the NFC East title race — the loser will have an uphill climb to make the playoffs. Philly has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total against NFC East foes — and Dallas has played 6 straight games Over the Total against NFC East foes. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-19-19 |
Winnipeg v. Calgary UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
33-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (687) and the Calgary Stampeders (688). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (10-6) enters this game looking to build off their 35-24 win over Montreal last Saturday as a 4-point favorite. Calgary (10-5) looks to build off their 30-28 win over Saskatchewan as a 3.5-point favorite last Friday night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Bombers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while that game flew over the 46.5 point Total, Winnipeg has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the number. Over their last three games, the Blue Bombers are scoring only 18.0 PPG. Winnipeg has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against West Division foes. Calgary has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win by 8 points or less. Additionally, the Stampeders have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss
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10-19-19 |
Oregon v. Washington UNDER 49 |
Top |
35-31 |
Loss |
-114 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
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At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (367) and the Washington Huskies (368). THE SITUATION: Oregon (5-1) has won four games in a row with their 45-3 win over Colorado last Friday as a 23.5-point favorite. Washington (5-2) comes off a 51-27 win at Arizona last Saturday as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ducks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. Oregon has also played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This team is playing outstanding defense under first-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos who came over from Boise State. The Ducks rank 3rd in the nation by allowing just 8.7 PPG — and they also rank 8th in the nation by surrendering only 267.7 total YPG. Oregon has not allowed more than 7 points in five straight games — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 7 points in their last contest. The Ducks are averaging 36.0 PPG on offense led by their NFL prospect at quarterback in Justin Herbert. But in their two games on the road — both against quality defenses — Oregon sees their scoring average drop to just 21.0 PPG along with averaging only 326.0 total YPG. A big concern for this team is their Red Zone offense where they rank just 102nd in the nation. The Ducks have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Oregon did support their defense last week by rushing for 252 yards against the Buffaloes — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Ducks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Washington has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Huskies have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win versus a Pac-12 rival — and the Under is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after a win by at least 20 points. This Washington team also plays very good defense — they rank 28th in the nation by allowing only 19.6 PPG. Visitors are scoring only 17.0 PPG at Husky Stadium while averaging just 336.7 total YPG. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Huskies’ offense has been inconsistent — they rank just 57th in the nation by averaging 423.1 total YPG. They did rush for 207 yards last week at Arizona — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards. Additionally, Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 42 points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing at Washington. And the forecasts call for rain this afternoon which will make both Herbert and the Huskies’ Jacob Eason uncomfortable. 25* CFB Saturday ABC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (367) and the Washington Huskies (368). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-18-19 |
Astros v. Yankees UNDER 8 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
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At 7:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and James Paxton. THE SITUATION: Houston (113-58) took a 3-1 lead in the American League Championship Series last night with their 8-3 victory. New York (107-62) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is now 4-1-1 in the Astros’ last 6 games in the playoffs. Additionally, Houston has seen the Under go 11-5-1 in their last 17 games on the road. They give the ball to Verlander who was 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander was more effective on the road during the regular season where he had a 0.76 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .164 in seventeen starts as compared to his 0.84 WHIP and .180 opponent’s batting average at home. Verlander had one bad outing in this postseason when he was pitching on three days of rest — he still has a 3.11 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP with 19 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings in these playoffs. And in his career in the playoffs, Verlander has a 3.34 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP in 161 2/3 innings of work. He comes off a strong outing in Game Two of this series where he allowed only two runs in 6 2/3 innings — and the Astros have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total with Verlander looking to follow up a Quality Start. Houston has played 7 of their last 9 road games with Verlander facing a team with a winning record — and they have played 19 of their last 24 games Under the Total with Verlander pitching at night. The Astros have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Verlander facing the Yankees. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. Additionally, the Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the playoffs — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against a team that scored at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Paxton who was 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in twenty-nine regular-season starts. The left-hander was much better at home in Yankee Stadium where he had a 3.35 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in fifteen starts as compared to his 4.33 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .274 opponent’s batting average on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are not swinging hot bats right now (a de-juiced baseball?). Houston is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .196 batting average, .265 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .618 over that span. The Yankees are hitting only .241 over their last seven games with a .760 OPS. 25* MLB American League Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and James Paxton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-17-19 |
UCLA v. Stanford UNDER 51 |
|
34-16 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (301) and the Stanford Cardinal (302). THE SITUATION: UCLA (1-5) has lost two straight games after their 48-31 upset loss to Oregon State as a 4.5-point favorite back on October 5th. Stanford (3-3) has won their last two games with their 23-13 upset win over Washington as a 13.5-point underdog on October 5th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinal has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win over a Pac-12 rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset victory as a home dog getting at least 7 points. Stanford’s win over the Huskies came on the heels of them defeating Oregon State on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after defeating two straight conference rivals. But the bad news for head coach David Shaw is that sophomore quarterback, Davis Mills, will not be able to play tonight given the calf injury he suffered in that game. With junior QB Kevin Costello already out with a thumb injury, that leaves the Cardinal offense in the hands of third-stringer Jack West. The redshirt freshman was highly recruited but not quite as high as Mills while lacking his experience at this point in his young career. As it is, Stanford is scoring only 15.3 PPG at home this season behind an offensive line that has struggled this season with just one returning starter. But the Cardinal are holding their guests to only 13.7 PPG along with just 274.7 total YPG. Stanford has played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total. The Cardinal defense has not forced more than one turnover since their opening game of the season against Northwestern — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not forcing more than one turnover in four straight games. Additionally, Stanford has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after their bye week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of October. UCLA is dealing with a host of injuries themselves. Dorian Thompson-Robinson remains questionable with a knee injury that kept him out last week against the Beavers. Sophomore quarterback Austin Burton was capable against Oregon State in Thompson-Robinson’s absence as he completed 27 of 41 passes for 236 yards with a touchdown while adding another 64 yards on the ground. But Burton is not a very high recruit and the Stanford defensive brain trust has had two weeks to prepare his tape for this game. UCLA has attempted 83 passes in their last two games — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. The Bruins did dominate the Time of Possession against the Beavers by holding the ball for 35:20 minutes while compiling 27 first downs — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after holding the ball for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 24 first downs. Moving forward, UCLA has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Bruins have averaged 531.3 total YPG over their last three games while allowing 539.7 total YPG in those contests — but UCLA has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after averaging at least 525 YPG in their last three games and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 475 YPG in their last three games. 10* CFB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (301) and the Stanford Cardinal (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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