All Sports Archive |
Date |
Match Up |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Lead Time |
Analysis |
12-31-18 |
Northern Colorado v. Portland State OVER 155 |
Top |
73-60 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 5:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (763) and the Portland State Vikings (764). THE SITUATION: Northern Colorado (7-5) snapped a four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 70-65 victory at Sacramento State as a 2-point favorite. Portland State (5-6) has lost three straight games with their 76-71 loss to Cal-State Bakersfield as a 1-point favorite back on December 20th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Northern Colorado has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Over their last five games, the Bears are scoring a robust 88.6 PPG while making 51% of their shots from the field. But now this team stays on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots this season. Northern Colorado has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing on the road. Portland State has played 9 straight games Over the Total after a loss on their home court — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after an upset loss at home. They stay at home for this contest where they are scoring 89.2 PPG while making 46.9% of their shots which is well-above their 41.9% shooting clip overall (mental note: be on the lookout to fade this team in their conference road games). If and when the Vikings miss their shots, there is a very good chance they will get a second-chance scoring opportunity since they lead the nation by pulling down 44.2% of their missed shots. Offensive rebounds should be easy to come by facing this Bears team that allows their opponents to rebound 27.4% of their missed shots which ranks 122nd in the nation. Portland State has not covered the point spread in three straight games. The Vikings have played 24 of their last 33 home games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight contests. Additionally, while Portland State has allowed their last four opponents to make at least 47.3% of their shots (as they sacrifice transition defense for crashing the offensive glass), they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing their last four opponents to make at least 47% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: These are two defensively-challenged teams who rank 214th and 267 in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In the wild-wild-west of the Big Sky conference, expect this game to be another higher-scoring game between these two teams. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (763) and the Portland State Vikings (764). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-18 |
Colts v. Titans UNDER 43.5 |
|
33-17 |
Loss |
-104 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (321) and the Tennessee Titans (322). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-6) has won four straight games with their 25-16 win over Washington last Saturday where they failed to cover the -11.5-point spread they were laying as the favorite. Indianapolis (9-6) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 28-27 win over the Giants as a 10-point favorite. This is a de-facto playoff game for both teams: the victor wins the AFC South title and plays next week in the AFC playoffs while the winner goes home.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Indianapolis generated 402 yards in that contest against the Giants — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Indianapolis allowed Eli Manning and the New York offense to gain 392 yards in that contest — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Colts are playing great defense as they have held their last five opponents to just 16.0 PPG along with only 333.0 total YPG. They go on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Indianapolis has valued 23 of their last 29 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Tennessee has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. The Titans stay at home for this game this week — and they have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last week’s game at home. Tennessee is second in the NFL by allowing only 18.0 PPG — and that number drops to just 16.9 PPG when they are playing at home. The Titans have held their last three opponents to a mere 8.0 PPG while limiting them to just 269.0 total YPG. The 16 points that Washington scored last week was the most that this defense has allowed in three straight games. Tennessee has played 3 of their last 4 home games Under the Total as the underdog. This team will also be looking to avenge a 38-10 loss to the Colts back on November 18th. The Titans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least four touchdowns to their opponent — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss.
FINAL TAKE: The Tennessee offense received a bad piece of news with this afternoon’s announcement that QB Marcus Mariota would not be able to play given his concerning stinger injury. They will be relying on Blaine Gabbert as their starting quarterback — and that likely will be all the more reason for them to rely heavily on Derrick Henry and their ground attack which helps our Under with the running clock. Expect a lower-score game. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Tennessee NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (321) and the Tennessee Titans (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-18 |
Bears v. Vikings UNDER 40.5 |
Top |
24-10 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (325) and the Minnesota Vikings (326). THE SITUATION: Chicago (11-4) has won three straight games with their 14-9 win at San Francisco last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. The Bears have clinched a playoff spot but have an outside chance to earn a first-round bye with a win in this game accompanied by an LA Rams loss. Minnesota (8-6-1) has won their last two games with their 27-9 win at Detroit as a 6.5-point favorite. The Vikings challenge is simple: win and they are in the playoffs as a Wildcard.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where they failed to score more than 14 points. The Bears offense is scoring only 17.7 PPG in their last three games while averaging just 316.0 total YPG over that span. Chicago also averages just 318.9 total YPG when playing on the road. The Bears have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Chicago managed to rush for just 90 yards against the 49ers — and they have played 26 of their last 39 road games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Bears have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. Chicago has held their last three opponents to just 10.7 PPG along with only 272.0 total YPG. The Bears have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in a domed stadium. Minnesota has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, the Vikings have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Now this team returns home where they have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. Minnesota flexes their defensive muscles back at home where they are allowing just 19.0 PPG along with only 259.1 total YPG. The Vikings have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Over their last three games, Minnesota has allowed these three opponents to score only 15.7 PPG along with totaling a mere 230.0 YPG. Furthermore, the Vikings have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on November 18th where the Bears won at Soldier Field by a 25-20 score. That game finished just above the 44 point Total — but that was before Kevin Stefanski took over as the offensive coordinator which cemented the team’s commitment to run the football. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (325) and the Minnesota Vikings (326). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-18 |
Jets v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
3-38 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (307) and the New England Patriots (308). THE SITUATION: New England (10-5) enters this game coming off their 24-12 win over Buffalo last Sunday. They need a victory to clinch the second seed in the AFC playoffs which gives them a first-round bye — and a loss by the Chiefs could put them in play to get the top seed in the AFC overall. New York (4-11) is playing out the string after they lost their second straight game as well as their eighth of their last nine contests after their 44-38 loss in overtime at home to Green Bay as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. New England did generate 390 yards of offense in that game — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. With the loss of wide receiver Josh Gordon and the apparent decline of tight end Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots are focusing more on their ground game to burn time off the clock to keep their defense off the field. New England held the ball for 35:38 minutes in their win over the Bills. But over their last three games, the Patriots are scoring just 22.3 PPG. They say at home where they have held their seven visitors to just 18.6 PPG along with only 331.0 total YPG. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Bill Belichick’s team is also very stingy on defense against divisional rivals. AFC East opponents are scoring only 14.4 PPG while averaging just 308.8 total YPG against the Patriots this season. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East rivals. And in their last 11 games in the month of December, the Patriots have played 9 of these games Under the Total. New York has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, the Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 35 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Furthermore, New York has played 6 straight games on the road Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Jets did allow the Packers to average 7.2 Yards-Per-Play against them — but they have then played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. New York now goes back on the road to close out their season where they are scoring just 20.3 PPG while averaging a mere 258.9 total YPG. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has had his moments but he lacks weapons at the skill position — and that will make things very easy for a Belichick defense. The Jets have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. New York has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East rivals.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the November 25th meeting between these two teams that the Patriots won by a 27-13 score. The Jets have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home by at least two touchdowns. These two teams have also played 5 straight games Under the Total. With New England wanting the victory before keeping Tom Brady and company healthy for the playoffs, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (307) and the New England Patriots (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-18 |
Oklahoma v. Alabama OVER 78.5 |
Top |
34-45 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (253) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (254). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (12-0) closed out their perfect regular season with their 24-17 win at USC as a 13.5-point favorite back on November 24th. Clemson (13-0) won the ACC Championship Game on December 1st with their 42-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 27-point favorite. These two teams meet in Dallas’ AT&T Stadium in the Cotton Bowl which serves as a proxy for the College Football Semifinals.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Sooners have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Oklahoma generated 508 yards in that contest with the Longhorns — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 405 yards in their last contest. The Sooners led the nation by scoring 49.5 PPG while also leading the FBS with an average of 577.9 total YPG. They also led the country by averaging +196 YPG above their opponent’s defensive YPG average this season. QB Kyle Murray fits the prototype of the quarterback that has given Nick Saban’s defense fits over the years with his dual-threat capabilities. He passed for over 4000 yards while averaging 11.9 Yards-Per-Passing attempt. The Heisman Trophy winner rushed for 943 yards with 642 of those yards accounted for from designed running plays where he averaged 7.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Texas A&M’s QB Kellen Mond rushed for 129 yards against the Bama defense with 92 of those yards coming from designed plays earlier this season. But the bigger defensive concerns below to the Sooners. Oklahoma allows 32.4 PPG which is 96th in the nation along with 448.1 total YPG which is 108th in the nation. Over their last three games, the team has not improved as they have surrendered 41.0 PPG along with an incredible 555.0 total YPG. In their six games on the road this year, the Sooners have given up 472.8 YPG. The team’s lack of competent safeties has consistently burned them all season — they rank 129th in the nation by giving up 291.4 passing YPG. This team allowed their opponents to average +31 YPG above their season average. Oklahoma has paled 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams outside the Big 12. Alabama’s defense looked vulnerable against a Georgia team that generated 454 yards against them. The Crimson Tide have seen the Over go 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Tide are the second-best scoring team in the nation by putting up 47.9 PPG — and they rank 5th in the nation by averaging 527.6 total YPG. When Alabama plays outside Tuscaloosa, they see their offensive production rise to them scoring 50.0 PPG while averaging 533.0 total YPG. This team averaged +155 YPG more than what their opponents allowed on average this season which was the third-best mark in the nation. The Crimson Tide have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC. Alabama has also played 11 of their last 15 bowl games Over the Total — and they have seen the Over go 20-5-2 in their last 27 games played on a neutral field.
FINAL TAKE: The Total set is at Big 12 level heights in the high-70s which is not uncommon for Oklahoma games. Alabama has a better offense than what the Sooners have seen all season. The pressure to continue scoring creates a self-fulfilling prophecy — expect a wild high-scoring game. 10* CFB Oklahoma-Alabama ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (253) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-18 |
Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 58 |
Top |
3-30 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (255) and the Clemson Tigers (256). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (12-0) closed out their perfect regular season with their 24-17 win at USC as a 13.5-point favorite back on November 24th. Clemson (13-0) won the ACC Championship Game on December 1st with their 42-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 27-point favorite. These two teams meet in Dallas’ AT&T Stadium in the Cotton Bowl which serves as a proxy for the College Football Semifinals.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers have won three straight games by at least three touchdowns — and they have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning at least their last two games by 21 points. They also have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Clemson once again boasts an outstanding defense that ranks 2nd in the nation by allowing 13.7 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the FBS by only giving up 276.7 total YPG. Those defensive numbers drop to 12.8 PPG and 252.0 YPG allowed in their six games played away from home. The Tigers are going to make things very difficult for this Irish offense. Clemson leads the nation by pressuring the quarterback in 45.8% of opponent passing plays. They also rank tops in the country by limiting opposing rushers to just 0.9 Yards-Per-Carry before delivering the first hit on the runner. Notre Dame has relied on clean holes from their offensive line as they average 2.5 Yards-Per-Carry before their rusher is hit which ranks 37th in the nation. While the Clemson will be without defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence for this game as he was suspended for this contest for positive PED test, their defensive line is loaded with talent and depth. This group should be even more ferocious with the extra rest and preparation — and this team has played 29 of their last 41 games Under the Total when playing with two or more weeks of rest. The Tigers do have a dynamic offense that became more powerful when freshman Trevor Lawrence took over under center early in the season. Clemson has scored 98 points over their last two games — but they have played 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. The Tigers have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Clemson has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in bowl games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they generated 473 yards of offense against the Trojans defense, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Irish surrendered 349 passing yards in that game with USC — but they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Notre Dame is an outstanding defensive team that ranked 10th in the nation by allowing only 17.3 PPG — and they also ranked 20th in the FBS by giving up just 331.5 total YPG. This team has not allowed an opponent to score more than 27 points all season. The key to their efforts has been to minimize big plays — they gave up only five plays that accounted for more than 40 yards this season. They also have a stout run defense that limits their opponents to just 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry. The Fighting Irish have played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Notre Dame has also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog giving 10.5 to 21 points.
FINAL TAKE: This is a matchup between two similar teams that employ run-first offenses that help to protect talented but inexperienced quarterbacks — and both teams like to rely on their strong defensive units. Expect this to be a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (255) and the Clemson Tigers (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-18 |
Mavs v. Pelicans OVER 228.5 |
Top |
112-114 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (521) and the New Orleans Pelicans (522). THE SITUATION: Dallas (16-17) snapped a six-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 122-119 win at home over New Orleans (15-20) as a 2.5-point favorite. These two teams now travel to the Big Easy to play the back-end of this home-and-home series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last contest. Dallas should have both Dennis Smith and rookie phenom Luka Doncic on the court tonight as they both are listed as probable despite their nagging injuries. Over their last five games, the Mavericks are scoring 119.0 PPG which is eight points higher than their season average. But Dallas is also allowing their last five opponents to score 122.2 PPG on 50.1% shooting which are both much higher than the 110.2 PPG they are allowing this season on 46.7% shooting. Now the Mavs go on the road where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Dallas has also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total with the number set in the 220 to 229.5 point range — and this includes them playing 6 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total with the over/under number in that range. The Mavericks have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow Southwest Division opponents. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against Southwest Division rivals. They return home where they have played 20 of their last 29 home games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Pelicans are scoring 120.0 PPG on 48.3% shooting when playing on their home court with both those numbers far above their 116.4 PPG scoring average an 47.6% field goal percentage overall this season. New Orleans has played 30 of their last 46 home games Over the Total as the favorite. And in their last 33 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road, the Pelicans have played 23 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 5 straight meetings Over the Total. The Over is also 19-7-1 in the last 27 encounters between these two teams in New Orleans. Even with the high total, with the fast pace that the Pelicans like to play, expect a very high-scoring game. 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (521) and the New Orleans Pelicans (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-18 |
Texas-Arlington v. Texas UNDER 136 |
Top |
56-76 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UT-Arlington Mavericks (817) and the Texas Longhorns (818). THE SITUATION: UT-Arlington (4-8) snapped their seven-game losing streak last Friday with their 75-70 win at Cal-Poly SLO in a pick ‘em contest. Texas (7-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Friday in a 71-65 upset loss to Providence as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns allowed the Friars to make 45.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them in their last five games. This Texas team is playing outstanding defense for head coach Shaka Smart as they rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Longhorns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. This team stays at home where they are holding their opponents to just 62.2 PPG while limiting these visitors to only a 38.1% field goal percentage. Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 44 of their last 60 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Longhorns are heavy favorites in this game which is a good sign for the Under. Texas has played 7 straight games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite — and they have also played 18 of their last 24 home games Under the Total when laying 18.5 to 24 points. The Longhorns have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. UT-Arlington has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Mavericks made only 39.7% of their shots in their victory last week which is concerning since they made only 26.8% of their shots in their previous game against Gonzaga. UT-Arlington ranks 303rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Mavericks do play solid defense as they rank 156th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is above average — and they will be playing a Longhorns team that ranks just 100th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. UT-Arlington stays on the road where they are scoring just 59.7 PPG with a low 37.1% field goal percentage. The Mavericks have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home field. Additionally, UT-Arlington has played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road as a double-digit underdog — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: UT-Arlington is going to struggle to score points in this game — but this Longhorns team is not equipped to put up a bunch of points. Texas has scored more than 78 points three times this season. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UT-Arlington Mavericks (817) and the Texas Longhorns (818). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-18 |
Pistons v. Pacers UNDER 206.5 |
|
88-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (513) and the Indiana Pacers (514). THE SITUATION: Detroit (16-16) snapped their two-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 106-95 win over Washington as a 4-point favorite. Indiana (23-12) has won three games in a row with their 129-121 win at Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pistons have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Detroit has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. The Pistons average 108.3 PPG while allowing 109.1 PPG this season — but over their last five games, Detroit is scoring 104.2 PPG while allowing 104.2 PPG for nine combined lower PPG over that span. Additionally, the Under is 19-5-3 in the Pistons’ last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Indiana has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Pacers have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Indiana made 55.4% of their shots in that game which was the highest field goal percentage they have enjoyed in their last fifteen contests. The Pacers also allowed the Hawks to make 50.6% from the field as well — and that is the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seventeen contests. Indiana returns home where they are shooting 45.9% from the field while holding their visitors to scoring just 96.9 PPG while shooting 42.0% from the field — and all three of those numbers are below their 47.6% field goal percentage for the season along with the 101.2 PPG they are allowing on 43.7% shooting from their opponents. Lastly, the Pacers have played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana played an outlier game on Wednesday with the 250 combined points that were scored in that contest. Expect a lower-scoring game tonight. 20* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (513) and the Indiana Pacers (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-18 |
Auburn v. Purdue UNDER 57 |
Top |
63-14 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (241) and the Purdue Boilermakers (242). THE SITUATION: Auburn (7-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 52-21 loss at Alabama as a 25.5-point underdog back on November 24th. Purdue (6-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on that November 24th with their 28-21 victory at Indiana as a 3-point favorite. These two teams meeting in Nashville in the Music City Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Auburn has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is also 19-6-2 in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Tigers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. The Auburn defense was humiliated by the arch-rivals in the Iron Bowl as they surrendered 500 yards of offense in their loss to Alabama. While most of the attention has since been on the Tigers offense that saw their offensive coordinator in Chip Lindsey leave for the same job at Kansas, the Tigers defense has much to prove in this game. The Under is 4-0-1 in Auburn’s last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after surrendering at least 450 yards in their last game. The Tigers had not given up more than 30 points in one game all season before their showdown with the Crimson Tide — they still enter this bowl game ranked 18th in the nation by allowing only 19.6 PPG. There is plenty of talent on the defensive side of the football, particularly on the defensive line. Head coach Gus Malzahn takes over the play-calling once again with Lindsey defection but I do not see this leading to a transcendent difference in the play of their offense. This will be junior QB Jarrett Stidham’s last collegiate game before he makes himself available for the NFL draft but he oversaw an underperforming offense that scored just 18.4 PPG — almost 10 PPG below their season average — in their five games played on the road. The history of this team suggests this will be a lower-scoring game than expected. Auburn has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 3-point range — and the Under is 15-4-2 in their last 21 games against teams outside the SEC. The Under is also 6-0-2 in the Tigers’ last 8 games played on a neutral field — and the Under is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 bowl games. Purdue has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Senior QB David Blough passed for 310 yards in their last win over the Hoosiers to end the season — but the Boilermakers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Purdue has only committed one turnover in three straight games — but they have then played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Some observers are expecting a big offensive output from this team with head coach Jeff Brohm staying with the program after turning down overtures from Louisville where he oversaw huge offensive numbers as their quarterback. The Boilermakers put up 49 points against Ohio State in their upset win over the Buckeyes this season — but that was against a mess of an OSU defense that was not responding to coaching and basic fundamentals at that point of the season. This same offense scored only 13 points at Michigan State and a mere 10 points at Minnesota. Over their last three games, Purdue has averaged just 378.3 total YPG. This offense will likely struggle against the size and speed of the Auburn defensive line. Lastly, the Boilermakers have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after playing a conference rival.
FINAL TAKE: While both these teams have intriguing offensive head coaches, expect this bowl game to be a lower-scoring game this afternoon. 25* CFB Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (241) and the Purdue Boilermakers (242). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-27-18 |
Vanderbilt v. Baylor UNDER 57 |
|
38-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores (239) and the Baylor Bears (240). THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (6-6) has won three of their last four games with their 38-13 win over Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite back on November 24th. Baylor (6-6) snapped their two-game winning streak on November 24th with their 35-24 upset win at Texas Tech as a 6-point underdog. These two teams meeting at Houston’s NRG Stadium in the Texas Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Vanderbilt has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Commodores held the Volunteers to just 242 yards of offense in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Vandy has held their last two opponents to just 121 and 103 rushing yards — and they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. But offense remains an issue for this team that scores just 22.0 PPG when playing away from their home in Nashville. The Commodores are bottom-ten in the nation with a Red Zone scoring percentage of just 74.5%. That is far below the national average of scoring at least a field goal in 83.9% of Red Zone opportunities. Baylor is not much better with a Red Zone scoring percentage of 75.5%. The Bears are scoring just 19.3 PPG over their last three contests. With their star tight end Jalen Hurd skipping this bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft, Baylor will now be missing one of their best weapons on offense. But the Bears defense has steadily improved this season as they have held their last three opponents to just 22.7 PPG along with only 337.7 total YPG. Baylor has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bears have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: In a game between two teams that struggle to take advantage of their Red Zone opportunities, expect at least one of these teams to struggle to score points. 20* CFB Vanderbilt-Baylor ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores (239) and the Baylor Bears (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-26-18 |
Raptors v. Heat UNDER 207.5 |
|
106-104 |
Loss |
-106 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (573) and the Miami Heat (573). THE SITUATION: Toronto (25-10) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 126-101 loss at Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog. Miami (16-16) has won five games in a row with their 115-91 win at Orlando as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raptors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by double-digits. Furthermore, Toronto has played a decisive 18 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss to an Atlantic Division rival. This Toronto offense will be without two key pieces with both Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas out with injuries — but their defense will be helped with the Serge Ibaka upgraded to probable for tonight’s game. The Raptors have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Toronto is struggling to score baskets after they shot 38.9% from the field which was the worst offensive effort of the season. Over their last five games, the Raptors are scoring 106.8 PPG whole making 45.3% of their shots which is far below their 114.3 PPG scoring average for the season along with a 48.1% field goal percentage. Miami is without their best scoring threat in Goran Dragic who is dealing with a knee injury. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Heat’s upset victory has actually been their fifth straight upset win this month. Miami has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. Furthermore, the Heat have played 9 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Over their last five games, they are scoring 102.4 PPG while making just 42.5% of their shots — and both those marks are a bit below their 106.5 PPG scoring average along with a 43.2% field goal percentage. But Miami is getting it done because of their defense as of late. They have held their last five opponents to just 94.0 PPG along with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39.1% — and those numbers represent a vast improvement over the 106.3 PPG they are allowing this season on 43.9% shooting from the field. Furthermore, the Heat have played 5 straight games at home Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: With some of the key offensive players on both teams out for this game — and with both these teams playing better on defense, expect a lower-scoring game. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (573) and the Miami Heat (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-18 |
Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 221 |
Top |
109-113 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (559) and the Houston Rockets (560). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (21-11) saw their four-game winning streak on Sunday with a 114-112 loss at home to Minnesota despite being 6-point favorites in that game. Houston (17-15) has won six of their last seven games with their 108-101 win over San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Thunder have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss against a divisional rival as a home favorite. Oklahoma City allowed the Timberwolves to make 49.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Thunder have been playing outstanding defense even without their star defender Andre Roberson on the shelf with a knee injury. Oklahoma City leads the NBA in Points-Per-Possession allowed along with forced turnovers. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where at least 225 combined points were scored. Now the Thunder go back on the road where they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total — and they have played 39 of their last 55 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. OKC has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 straight games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Houston (17-15) has played 30 of their last 48 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Rockets have played 32 of their last 45 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. Houston has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. This team will once again be without Chris Paul for two to four weeks after he suffered a hamstring strain a few days ago. His loss is critical since he was the best complementary scoring option to James Harden this season. The Rockets stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 40-18-1 in their last 59 games when facing a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. The Rockets will revenge on their home from a 98-80 upset loss to the Thunder back on November 8th as a 5-point favorite. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent.
FINAL TAKE: The absence of Paul makes the Rockets easier to defend since their opponents can focus on slowing down Russell Westbrook. As it is, these two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. Expect that trend to continue this afternoon. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (559) and the Houston Rockets (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-24-18 |
Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
14-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (131) and the Oakland Raiders (132). THE SITUATION: Oakland (3-11) has lost three of their last four games with their 30-16 loss at Cincinnati last week as a 3-point underdog. Denver (6-8) has lost two straight games with their 17-16 upset loss at home against Cleveland two Saturdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Additionally, Denver has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. This team is struggling to move the ball down the stretch of the season as they are scoring just 18.0 PPG while averaging only 301.7 Yards-Per-Game. But their defense is keeping them in games as they are holding their opponents to just 15.7 PPG along with only 336.3 total YPG. The Broncos run defense has been quite good as of late as they are holding their opponents to just 79.6 rushing YPG over their last eight games along with only 3.84 Yards-Per-Carry. Denver goes back on the road where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. The Broncos have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Denver has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of December. The Broncos have also seen the Under go 12-3-1 in their last 16 games against AFC opponents with the Under being 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against fellow AFC West foes. Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Raiders did hold the Bengals to just 123 passing yards in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Oakland returns home where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Raiders struggle against good pass rushes as the 48 sacks they have given up is the third most in the league. Denver is 7th in the NFL by producing sacks in 7.8% of their opponents passing plays. Oakland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games played in the month of December.
FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of the Broncos’ 20-19 victory over the Raiders back on September 16th. Oakland has played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge on their minds. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams who both have offenses that can struggle to score double-digits on any given game. 25* AFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (131) and the Oakland Raiders (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-23-18 |
Chiefs v. Seahawks OVER 54 |
Top |
31-38 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (11-3) looks to bounce-back from their 29-28 upset loss to the Los Angeles Chargers back on December 13th. Seattle (8-6) looks to rebound from their 26-23 upset loss in overtime at San Francisco last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 4 straight games Over the Total after suffering an upset loss — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, Kansas City has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a loss by 3 points or less to a fellow AFC West rival — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss. The Chiefs have been basically unstoppable on offense when playing on the road. Kansas City averages 39.3 PPG while generating 459.6 total YPG when playing away from home. Perhaps the Chiefs are this prolific on offense because they have difficulty slowing down the offenses of the home teams. They are allowing their home hosts to score 34.1 PPG while averaging 455.1 total YPG. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been able to raise his level of play away from Arrowhead Stadium as his 28:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio of 28:6 along with a 9.47 Yards-Per-Attempt passing mark on the road are actually better than his 17:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 8.17 YPA at home this season. Kansas City has played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total when playing a team with a winning record at home. The Chiefs have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Overs in the month of December. Seattle has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of December. They rushed for 168 yards in their loss to the 49ers — and they should find success with their rushing attack against this Chiefs’ defense that ranks 26th in the NFL in stopping the run. The Seahawks’ reliance on their ground game might be tempting some bettors to lead to them burning the clock which helps produce lower scoring games — but Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Seahawks average 27.2 PPG at home and they are scoring 29.0 PPG over their last three games. But Seattle allows their visitors to average 372.7 total YPH when playing at home. The Seahawks run defense has been faltering as of late with their last six opponents averaging 5.21 Yards-Per-Carry. Seattle has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of December.
FINAL TAKE: The Total of this game is the highest number for Week Sixteen. But with this likely to be a close game with both teams likely to score at least in the high-20s, look for this final score to reach the Over. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-23-18 |
Bengals v. Browns UNDER 44.5 |
|
18-26 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (119) and the Cleveland Browns (120). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (6-8) snapped their five-game losing streak last Sunday with their 30-16 win over Oakland as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (6-7-1) has won four of their last five games with their 17-16 upset win at Denver last Saturday as a 1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and the Under is 19-9-1 in their last 29 games after a point spread win. Cincinnati has finally found some answers on the defensive side of the football. While they are still allowing 29.5 PPG along with 413.0 total YPG this season, they have allowed just 22.0 PPG over their last three games while limiting their opponents to just 315.3 total YPG. But this is a limited team on offense with Jeff Driskel under center for the injured Andy Dalton. The Bengals generated only 294 yards of offense against a suspect Raiders defense last week. Joe Mixon ran the ball 27 times for 129 yards which helped Cincinnati control the Time of Possession for 33:19 of that contest — and that will likely be the formula for success in this contest. The Bengals are averaging only 20.3 PPG over their last three contests while generating just 300.0 YPG over that span. Cincinnati goes back on the road where they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Under is also 15-7-1 in their last 23 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 52 games in the month of December, the Under is 35-16-1. Cleveland some very good defense right now as they have held their last three opponents to just 21.7 PPG along with only 349.0 total YPG as compared to their 24.9 PPG and 401.1 total YPG averages for the season. They return home hewer they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total. Furthermore, the Browns have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Under is also 39-11-2 in Cleveland’s last 52 games in the month of December.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the 35-20 victory for the Browns in Cincinnati back on November 25th. Expect the Bengals to play better on defense this time around. These two teams have played 5 straight Unders when playing in Cleveland. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (119) and the Cleveland Browns (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-18 |
Ravens v. Chargers UNDER 44 |
Top |
22-10 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-6) has won four of their last five games with their 20-12 win over Tampa Bay as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (11-3) teaks the field again after their triumphant 29-28 upset win at Kansas City last Thursday where they were a +3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have seen the Under go 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and they have also played nine of their last eleven games Under the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, Los Angeles has played five of their last seven games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 24 of their last 35 home games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Chargers did gain 407 yards against the Chiefs defense — but the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Despite their numbers last week, Los Angeles is averaging only 355.3 Yards-Per-Game over their last three contests which is almost 47 YPG below their season average. The Chargers return home where they are holding their opponents to only 297.3 total YPG. LA has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Chargers have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the month of December. Baltimore has played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. Baltimore boasts the best statistical defense in the league that is best in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 18.1 PPG and only 290.2 total YPG. The Ravens are 3rd in the NFL in both run and pass defense — so it is difficult to exploit a weakness. Over their last three games, Baltimore is only allowing 271.0 total YPG — and they have held four of their last five opponents to under 260 yards. But the Baltimore offense manages to score just 21.4 PPG on the road. Rookie Lamar Jackson is playing well as a dual-threat quarterback — but this will be the most challenging defense he has yet played in his young professional career. Jackson has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game so the Chargers may be able to make him one-dimensional. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on grass — and they have played 29 of their last 42 games Under the Total in the last two weeks of the regular season.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers employ the slowest pace on offense in the NFL — and with Malcolm Gordon returning to the field, expect this team to run the ball plenty against this stout Ravens defense. Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing since Jackson has taken over at quarterback. This game sets up to be an old-fashioned battle at the line of scrimmage where both coaches will look to impose their will and tire the opposing defenses out. That is a great formula for the Under. 25* NFL Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-18 |
Buffalo v. Troy OVER 49.5 |
Top |
32-42 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bulls (225) and the Troy Trojans (226). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 3-29 upset loss to Northern Illinois in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game as a 3-point favorite back on November 30th. Troy (9-3) looks to bounce-back from a 21-10 loss at Appalachian State back on November 24th as a 12-point underdog. These two teams meet in Mobile, Alabama for the Dollar General Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Buffalo has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a narrow loss by just 3 points or less against a conference rival — and the Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This Bulls team has a balanced offense that averages 195.8 rushing YPG (44th in the nation) and 221.6 passing YPG (73rd in the FBS) to produce an offense that ranks 24th in the nation by scoring 34.8 PPG. But stopping opposing offenses can be an issue for this team after they allowed a Northern Illinois offense that has been rather meek this season to generate 409 yards of offense. 300 of those yards were in the air in that game — and Buffalo has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Over their last three games, the Bulls are allowing 420.0 total YPG which is over 70 YPG more than their defensive average for the season. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against non-conference opponents — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Bulls have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with more than two weeks between games — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Troy has played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total after a loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Trojans have a good defense that ranks 23rd in the FBS by allowing just 21.2 PPG. But Troy has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 38 of their last 55 games Over the Total against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. Furthermore, the Trojans have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. Lastly, Troy has played 7 straight games Over the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total in bowl games.
FINAL TAKE: Troy lost their starting quarterback, Kaleb Barker, to a season-ending ACL injury in the middle of the year — so the extra few weeks of practice and repetitions should really help sophomore QB Sawyer Smith. Boise State, UL-Monroe, Georgia State and South Alabama all had success moving the football against the Trojans defense. This should be a competitive game which should help push the Total over the number. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bulls (225) and the Troy Trojans (226). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-18 |
Houston v. Army UNDER 57.5 |
|
14-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (223) and the Army West Point Black Knights (224). THE SITUATION: Houston (8-4) has lost three of their last four games with their 52-31 loss at Memphis as a 9.5-point underdog back on November 23rd. Army (10-2) has won eight straight games after their 17-10 win over Navy two Saturdays ago as a 7-point favorite. These two teams face off in Fort Worth, Texas in the Armed Forces Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Houston has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. The Cougars are dealing with a host on injuries on both sides of the ball. The most significant issue on offense is the season-ending injury to their dynamic starting quarterback D’Eriq King. With his backup Quinten Dormady out the door in a likely transfer to Central Michigan, the starter for this game falls on the shoulders of freshman Clayton Tune. In his first career start against Memphis, Tune completed only 18 of 43 passes for 256 yards while not offering much of a rushing threat as he gained just 12 yards on 13 carries on the ground. Tune is completing just 44.7% of his 85 pass attempts this season — and his top two wide receiver targets are listed as questionable. Tune will struggle against the fundamentally sound Black Knights’ defense that ranks 9th in the nation by allowing only 293.5 total YPG. Over their last three games, Army is allowing just 12.3 PPG along with only 206.0 total YPG. The bigger concern for the Cougars is their defense that ranks 124th in the FBS by allowing 488.5 total YPG. But those are tempo-free numbers that are exacerbated by the fact that Houston’s fast pace offense places them 129th in the nation by averaging just 25:04 minutes per game. The Cougars allowing 5.71 Yards-Per-Play which ranks 74th in the nation — and is just a smidge below the 5.72 YPP defensive average for this Army team that protects their defense by leading the nation by averaging 38:51 minutes per game. Houston allowed 610 yards against the Tigers in their last game with 401 of those yards coming on the ground. But the Cougars have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have also played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after giving up at least 300 rushing yards in their last contest. And to stay consistent with tempo-free numbers, while Houston allowed Memphis to average 6.63 Yards-Per-Play on their whopping 93 plays on offense in that last game, they have then played 31 of their last 44 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.25 YPP. The Cougars have faced a spread triple option offense already as Navy torched them for 344 rushing yards — and now their defensive line is without future NFL star Ed Oliver who is bypassing playing in this game along with two other starters who are injured. But the extra weeks of practice for this offense as well as the experience of that game with the Midshipmen will help immensely. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with at least one bye week between games. Army has played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Black Knights have also played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 22 games played on a neutral field, Army has played 17 of these games Under the Total. And staying true to tempo-free stats, their defense has improved as of late by allowing just 4.5 Yards-Per-Play over their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: I am passing on the side on this game (lean Army) — but the best betting proposition for this game is the Under given the high Total that is undervaluing the quality of the Cougars defense. Houston will struggle to fully execute their aggressive up-tempo offense with the freshman under center which will allow Army to control the Time of Possession. While I am not sure that leads them to cover the point spread, the fewer offensive possessions should ensure an Under. 10* CFB Houston-Army ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (223) and the Army West Point Black Knights (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-18 |
Wake Forest v. Memphis OVER 72 |
|
37-34 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (221) and the Memphis Tigers (222). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (6-6) became bowl eligible by winning two of their final three games after their 59-7 upset win at Duke as a 9.5-point underdog on November 24th. Memphis (8-5) saw their four-game winning snapped in the Conference USA Championship Game with their 56-41 loss to Central Florida back on December 1st where they were 1-point underdogs. These two teams meet in Alabama for the Birmingham Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Memphis has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. The Tigers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five contests. The offense took a hit with their star running back Darrell Henderson opting out of this game to avoid injury before making himself available for the NFL draft. But this Memphis offense still has Patrick Taylor and Tony Pollard in the backfield who combined to rush for 1455 yards with 20 touchdowns. The Tigers will be able to move the ball against this Demon Deacons defense that ranked 116th in the nation by allowing 465.3 total YPG. But Memphis has struggled to stop opposing offenses as well as they rank 92nd in the nation by giving up 31.5 PPG — and they gave up 40.3 PPG along with 513.0 Yards-Per-Game in their six games away from home. Central Florida generated 698 yards against them — and Memphis has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Tigers have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Furthermore, Memphis has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams outside the American Athletic Conference — and they have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the month of December. The Tigers have also played 30 of their last 46 games Over the Total in expected high-scoring games with the Total set at least at 63. Wake Forest has a powerful offense as well as they rank 31st in the nation by averaging 443.2 total YPG — and that number rises to 492.0 YPG along with 36.4 PPG in their five games on the road.
|
12-21-18 |
Magic v. Bulls UNDER 203 |
|
80-90 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (511) and the Chicago Bulls (512). THE SITUATION: Orlando (14-16) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 129-90 loss at home to San Antonio as a 3-point underdog. Chicago (7-25) has lost five of their last six games with their 96-93 loss to Brooklyn as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic played the worst defensive game of the season as they allowed the Spurs to make 64.9% of their shots in that game. Expect a focused defensive effort tonight. Orlando has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Magic have also played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 10 points. Now this team goes back on the road where they limit their home hosts to just a 43.7% field goal percentage. Orlando has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they also played 11 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on their home court. The Magic are struggling to make shots after limping out of that game with the Spurs with a 38.2% field goal percentage. Over their last five games, Orlando is making only 40.4% of their shots. Chicago has seen the Under go 22-8-1 in their last 31 games after a straight-up loss. The Bulls are missing two important pieces of their offensive attack with both Zach Levine and Bobby Portis out with injuries. Chicago stays at home where the Under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Bulls have also played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total against fellow Eastern Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing in Chicago. Expect another lower-scoring game between these two teams. 10* NBA Friday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (511) and the Chicago Bulls (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-18 |
BYU v. Western Michigan UNDER 52 |
|
49-18 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Western Michigan Broncos (220) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (219). THE SITUATION: Western Michigan (7-5) enters the postseason coming off a 28-21 upset win over Northern Illinois as a 6.5-point underdog back on November 20th. BYU (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on November 24th with their 35-27 loss at Utah as a 10.5-point underdog. These two teams travel to Boise, Idaho for the Potato Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win at home. And while some teams may suffer an emotional letdown after an upset victory, I suspect that victory for this Broncos team will be galvanizing for them. Second-year head coach Tim Lester fired his defensive coordinator before that game against the Huskies and the result was his defense played their best game of the season by only allowing 262 yards of offense. Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory as a home underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after pulling an upset over a conference rival. Western Michigan dominated that Northern Illinois team that then went on to upset Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game as they out-gained them by +137 net yards. The Broncos have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards. The extra weeks of bowl practice should help in the continued development of freshman quarterback Kaleb Eleby who has started the last three games for the injured Jon Wassink. Eleby completed 19 of 35 passes for 285 yards against a stout Huskies defense — and he is completing 64.5% of his passes this season. Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after passing for at least 285 yards in their last game. And in their last 17 games on the road after losing three of their last four games, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 14 of these contests. BYU has questionable motivation issues after blowing a 20-0 halftime lead against their in-state rivals to close out the season. Losing that game cost the Cougars a more attractive bowl site — now they travel north to bland Boise to play a team not representing a Power Five conference. This BYU team has a host of distractions as well with some players out getting married with others out due to injuries and a number of players taking exams while on this trip. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a bye week. They also have a freshman at quarterback with Zach Wilson starting the last six games for the team when he was tapped by head coach Kalani Sitake to take over as the starter. BYU relies on their defense as they grind out games with an offense dedicated to running the ball and winning the battle at the line of scrimmage. While that is a consistent way to be successful and stay competitive in all their games, it is not a reliable way to cover double-digit point spreads. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field. Together, these team trends produce our specific 74-24 ATS combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first bowl game for Western Michigan under head coach Lester after they were one of the few teams passed over despite having six wins last season. They should be motivated to make a statement in this game to close out their season. BYU has higher expectations as an independent team modeling their program as the Notre Dame of the west. BYU’s defense may be the difference in this game — but they are laying way too many points as a double-digit favorite. 10* CFB BYU-Western Michigan ESPN Special with the Western Michigan Broncos (220) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (219). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-20-18 |
Marshall v. South Florida UNDER 52 |
Top |
38-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Gasparilla Bowl between the Marshall Thundering Herd (215) and the South Florida Bulls (216). THE SITUATION: Marshall (8-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st with their 41-20 loss at Virginia Tech as a 3.5-point underdog. South Florida (7-5) has lost five straight games after their 38-10 loss to Central Florida as a 16.5-point favorite back on November 23rd. With this bowl game being moved from St. Petersburg to Raymond James Stadium on Tampa Bay, the Bulls playing in their home stadium for this bowl game.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 21-9-1 in South Florida’s last 31 games after a straight-up loss. The Bulls have also played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after a loss by at least 17 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total after a loss by at least four touchdowns. Furthermore, not only has South Florida played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after suffering three straight losses to conference rivals but they have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The big question for this team is whether or not junior quarterback Blake Barnett will be able to take the field in this game. The former Alabama QB injured his ankle two games ago which kept him out of that final game with UCF. Barnett is officially listed as questionable for this contest and while he has taken off his walking boot this week, there is little other indication that he is actually ready to play in this game. I suspect that second-year head coach Charlie Strong will not risk further injury to his likely incumbent starter who has not practiced for this game and who will not be at 100%. But even if he plays, he will be running an offense that has scored only 16.7 PPG over their last three contests while wavering only 296.0 total YPG over that span. South Florida will lean on their rushing attack that averaged 202.5 rushing YPG which was 34th best in the nation. But running the ball will be difficult against this Thundering Herd defense that ranks 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 105.3 rushing YPG — and they limit opposing rushers to just a 2.98 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulls only managed to pass for 113 yards against Central Florida in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games at home Under the Total after a game where they failed to pass for at least 125 yards. South Florida has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing at home. Marshall has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 17 points. The Thundering Herd allowed the Hokies to average 7.09 Yards-Per-Play in their last game — but they have then played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Head coach Doc Holliday should see his defense rebound with a better game tonight as they rank 23rd in the nation by allowing just 336.9 total YPG while also ranking tied for 29th in the FBS by giving up only 22.0 PPG. Marshall did not force any Virginia Tech turnovers in their last game — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after not forcing a turnover in their last game. Furthermore, the Thundering Herd have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when favored by no more than 3 points. And in their last 7 bowl games, Marshall has played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The challenges for the South Florida offense increased when their offensive coordinator, Sterlin Gilbert, left for the McNeese State head coaching job during bowl prep. Strong has tapped Justin Blake to be his interim play-caller despite his lack of experience with those duties. With the Total set in the low-50s, expect this to be a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Gasparilla Bowl between the Marshall Thundering Herd (215) and the South Florida Bulls (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-19-18 |
Knicks v. 76ers OVER 228 |
Top |
109-131 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (553) and the Philadelphia 76ers (554). THE SITUATION: New York (9-23) has lost two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests with their 128-110 loss to Phoenix on Monday as a 1.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (20-12) has lost three of their last four games with their 123-96 loss in San Antonio on Monday as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 10 points. Furthermore, while the Knicks have allowed at least 110 points in eleven straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 110 points in four straight contests. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in six of their last eight games — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after only covering the point spread once or twice in their last six games. This is an injured group right now with Allonzo Trier, Mitchell Robinson, and Damyean Dotson all out for this game and Tim Hardway listed as questionable with a heel injury. These absences probably hurt the Knicks defense more than it does their offense. Over their last five games, New York is scoring 109.6 PPG but they are giving up 118.8 PPG to their opponents while playing at a fast pace. Now they go on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog. And while they will be looking to avenge a 117-91 loss to the Sixers back on November 28th, the Knicks have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when motivated by revenge from a loss by at least 20 points. New York made only 40.4% of their shots in their last game which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last six games — but Philadelphia comes off a game where they made just 40.8% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage they have endured all season. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Furthermore, Philly has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. And while they have allowed at least 105 points in seven straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing at least 105 points in their last game. The Sixers return home where they are scoring 116.1 PPG while allowing 108.8 PPG to their opponents. Over their last five games, they are allowing their opponents to make 49.3% of their shots. This is their sixth game in ten days — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing at least their sixth game in the last ten days.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are likely to shoot much better from the field after poor shooting efforts in their last game. Defense will likely be hard to come by given injuries and fatigue — and that means plenty of scoring from two teams very happy to push the pace. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (553) and the Philadelphia 76ers (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-19-18 |
Spurs v. Magic UNDER 210.5 |
|
129-90 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (555) and the Orlando Magic (556). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (16-15) has won five of their last six games with their 123-96 win over Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite on Monday. Orlando (14-15) has won two straight games after their 96-89 upset win over Utah as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spurs have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, San Antonio has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Spurs made 56.3% of their shots against the Sixers — but they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. But now this team goes back on the road where they are making only 45.7% of their shots which is a bit lower than their 46.9% field goal percentage for the season. San Antonio has played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on the road as the favorite. This team is playing their best defense of the season right now as they have held their last five opponents to just a 40.7% field goal percentage while not allowing any of these last five opponents to make more than 43.5% of their shots. Orlando played their best defensive game of the season on Saturday by holding the Jazz to just a 31.5% field goal percentage. The Magic have held their last five opponents to just a 44.6% field goal percentage which compares favorably to their opponent’s field goal percentage of 45.7% for the season. But Orlando is only making 42.4% of their shots over their last five games (resulting in just 95.4 PPG) which is far below their 44.9% field goal percentage for the year. They take the court again after a nice break— and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Additionally, the Magic have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, Orlando has played 28 of their last 41 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range including six Unders in these last eight situations. The Magic have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and this includes playing four straight Unders when the game is played in Orlando. Expect another low-scoring game. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (555) and the Orlando Magic (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-18-18 |
Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 208 |
Top |
92-91 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (545) and the Indiana Pacers (546). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (7-23) has lost two straight games with their 128-105 loss to Philadelphia on Sunday as a 9-point underdog. Indiana (20-10) has won seven straight games with their 110-99 win over New York as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pacers have raised their level of play on the defensive end of the court. During their seven-game winning streak, Indiana is allowing their opponents to score just 97.4 points per 100 possessions. Their last five opponents are shooting just 41.6% from the field. The Under is 35-16-1 in the Pacers’ last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. This team stays at home where they are scoring 105.2 PPG while holding their opponents to just 97.7 PPG — and both those numbers are below their 106.7 PPG scoring average along with their 101.2 PPG defensive average overall this season. Indiana has played 39 of their last 58 games Under the Total on their home court — and this includes them playing twelve of their last fifteen home games Under the Total. The Pacers have also played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Indiana has played ten straight games Under the Total — and while that might perk the interests of some contrarian bettors, the Pacers have played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total when on an Under streak of at least four games which includes them playing eight of their last nine Under the Total if they have played at least four straight Unders before that game. Furthermore, Indiana has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% — and the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 27 games against fellow NBA Central opponents. Cleveland has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against Central Division rivals. They have lost two straight games by double-digits with their loss to the 76ers preceded by a 114-102 loss to Milwaukee — and the Cavaliers have plated 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two straight games by double-digits. This team is ravaged with injuries with Tristan Thompson joining Kevin Love being on the shelf — and they are not playing their outside shooting threat in J.R. Smith so he can be kept healthy so that he retains some trade value. Head coach Larry Drew will want his team to play harder on defense after allowing the Sixers to make 56% of their shots which was the second worst defensive effort of the season. Now the Cavs go on the road where they score 100.7 PPG which is -2.7 PPG below their overall season average. Cleveland has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road. They also have played 8 of the last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: The Cavaliers are looking to avenge a 119-107 loss at home to the Pacers back on October 27th — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the total when playing with same-season revenge. The Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 games between these two teams — and these two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when meeting at Indiana. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (545) and the Indiana Pacers (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-17-18 |
Saints v. Panthers UNDER 52 |
|
12-9 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (331) and the Carolina Panthers (332). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-7) has lost five straight games after their 26-20 upset loss at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (11-2) enters this game coming off a 28-14 win at Tampa Bay last week as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team is playing outstanding defense as of late as they have not allowed more than 17 points in five straight games. Over their last three games, New Orleans is allowing only 14.7 PPG along with just 317.7 total YPG. Their defense also travels as they hold their home hosts to only 19.9 PPG on the road this season. The Saints have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road. But along with New Orleans continued improved play on defense has been a decline in the productivity of their offense. Over their last three games, the Saints are scoring only 23.0 PPG while averaging just 262.0 total YPG. Playing on grass tends to slow down the speed New Orleans has on offense that terrorizes opponents when playing on the field turf at home in the Superdome. The Saints have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on grass. Additionally, New Orleans has played 4 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have also played 5 straight games Under the Total again streams with a losing record. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Panthers only allowed 348 yards of offense to the Browns last week — but they allowed Cleveland to average 7.9 Yards-Per-Play. Carolina controlled the clock in that game as they were on offense for 33:50 minutes of that game — and they will certainly look to replicate that number tonight to keep the Saints’ offense off the field. The Panthers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. The Carolina offense is scoring only 21.3 PPG over their last three games with quarterback Cam Newton limited on the types of throws he can deliver given a shoulder injury. The Panthers have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of December.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when facing off in Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (331) and the Carolina Panthers (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-18 |
Eagles v. Rams UNDER 54 |
Top |
30-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Philadelphia Eagles (329) and the Los Angeles Rams (330). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-7) looks to rebound from their 29-23 overtime loss in Dallas last week as a 3.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (11-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with their 15-6 loss in Chicago last Sunday night as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Philly will be turning to Nick Foles at quarterback with Carson Wentz dealing with back issues and likely to be put on the shelf for the rest of this season with their playoff hopes likely dashed. Foles started the first two games of the season with the Eagles scoring only 19 combined points in those two games. Philadelphia will likely to commit to running the football considering that they have won all six of their games this season when they attempt at least 27 rushes. Running the football will also serve to protect their injury-riddled defense that surrendered 576 yards against the Cowboys. The Eagles have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 500 yards in their last game. Philadelphia stayed competitive last week despite only managing to gain 256 yards of offense — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after being out-gained by at least 100 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Rams will likely look to run the football as well after struggling to move the football in the colder weather in Chicago — Todd Gurley ran the ball only 11 times last week. Los Angeles also needs to do better with their run defense after allowing the Bears to rush for 194 yards last week. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Los Angeles returns home where they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Rams have also played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: With Los Angeles big favorites of almost two touchdowns, the Total remains in the low-50s for this game. With both teams running the football, expect this to be a lower-scoring game than expected. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between Philadelphia Eagles (329) and the Los Angeles Rams (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-18 |
Heat v. Pelicans UNDER 222.5 |
|
102-96 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (525) and the New Orleans Pelicans (526). THE SITUATION: Miami (12-16) looks to build off their 100-97 win at Memphis on Friday as a 4-point underdog. New Orleans (15-15) also comes off an upset victory with their 118-114 win over Oklahoma City as a 4-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Miami has played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. The Heat will be without their most reliable go-to scoring option in Goran Dragic who is out with a knee injury. Miami is playing lower-scoring games as of late. They have allowed 102.4 PPG over their last five contests which is almost 6 points lower than the 108.1 PPG they are allowing for the season. The Heat have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents. New Orleans has played 5 straight games Under the Total against Eastern Conference foes. The Pelicans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, New Orleans has played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last contest. The Pelicans will also be without a key piece on offense with Nikola Mirotic out indefinitely with an ankle injury. New Orleans is scoring 113.8 PPG over their last five games while allowing 109.6 PPG — and both those marks are a bit below the 117.4 PPG they are scoring and the 115.5 PPG they are allowing this season. Together, these team trends produce our specific 37-1 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: With both teams being without one of their top scorers, expect a lower scoring game even if played at a fast pace. 10* NBA Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (525) and the New Orleans Pelicans (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-18 |
Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 44.5 |
|
23-26 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (325) and the San Francisco 49ers (326). THE SITUATION: Seattle (8-5) has won four straight games with their 21-7 win over Minnesota on Monday as a 3-point favorite. San Francisco (3-10) snapped their three-game losing streak last week with their 20-14 upset win over Denver as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games. Seattle held the Vikings to just 77 rushing yards in that contest — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Seahawks are playing good defense as they are allowing only 16.7 PPG over their last three contests. Now they go on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total. Seattle has also played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. And in their last 6 road games when favored in the 3.5 to 7 point range, the Seahawks have played all 6 games Under the Total. San Francisco has lost nine of their last eleven games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight games. The 49ers have also failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Niners are scoring only 15.0 PPG over their last three contests. But San Francisco is playing good defense at home where they are holding their opponents to just 295.2 total YPG. The 49ers have played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. This is a rematch of Seattle’s 43-16 victory over the Niners two weeks ago — and San Fran has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with same season revenge.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 encounters in San Francisco Under the Total. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams with the Niners serving as hosts. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (325) and the San Francisco 49ers (326). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-18 |
Browns v. Broncos UNDER 46 |
|
17-16 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (305) and the Denver Broncos (306). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 20-14 loss at San Francisco as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (5-7-1) has won three of their last four games with their 26-20 upset win at home over Carolina last week as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. And while Denver allowed 389 yards of offense in that game, they have then seen the Under go 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Broncos do return home where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. This team has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, Denver has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Cleveland needs to play better defense in the first half after allowing 17 and 23 points in the first thirty minutes of their last two games. The Browns have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after allowing at least 17 points in the first-half in two straight games. Cleveland has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The Browns have also seen the Under go 38-11-2 in their last 51 games in the month of December — and this includes them playing seven of their last ten games Under the Total in December contests.
FINAL TAKE: Denver’s formula for success is running the football — and Cleveland has run the ball more than 50% of the time in three of their last four games. Both teams looking to run the football will shorten this game which should help produce a lower-scoring contest. 10* NFL Cleveland-Denver NFL Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (305) and the Denver Broncos (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-18 |
Texans v. Jets UNDER 44 |
Top |
29-22 |
Loss |
-103 |
6 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (303) and the New York Jets (304). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 24-21 upset loss to Indianapolis last week where they were a 4-point favorite. New York (4-9) enters this Saturday game coming off a 27-23 upset victory at Buffalo as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans’ offense stalled in that game as they generated only 315 yards at home against the Colts. Houston has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans did limit Indianapolis to just 50 rushing yards in that contest — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last game. Houston is 5th in the NFL by allowing only 88.2 rushing YPG — and they are holding their opponents to just a 3.35 Yards-Per-Carry average. Over their last three games, the Texans allowing only 18.0 PPG. Now after playing their last three games at home, Houston goes on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total when laying 3.5 to 7 points. Furthermore, the Texans have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 31 games played in the month of December, Houston has played 23 of these games Under the Total including nine of their last eleven. New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory. Furthermore, the Jets have also played 22 of their last 32 home games Under the Total after a narrow win by 6 points or less. They did surrender 176 rushing yards to the Bills in that win — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The New York offense is riddled with injuries with running back Isaiah Crowell going on IR with a foot injury and wide receiver Quincy Enunwa being declared out with an ankle. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold is left without much help at the skill positions. He has only passed for 300 yards once in his ten starts and his lead running back is now third-stringer Elijah McGuire. The Jets have scored only 20.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging a mere 288.7 total YPG. Lastly, in their last 15 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored, New York has then played 10 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a low-scoring contest. The Jets’ offense was already limited before their rash of injuries. Houston has evolved into a run-first team to protect their offensive line (it is easier on that group to run block rather than offer pass protection). With the Texans on the road, they will lean even more on the road. 25* NFL Saturday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (303) and the New York Jets (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-13-18 |
Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54 |
Top |
29-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-3) has won three straight games as well as nine of their last ten games with their 26-21 win over Cincinnati as a 17-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (11-2) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-24 win in overtime against Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning their last two games along with having played 7 straight games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games in a row. Los Angeles managed only 85 yards of rushing in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Chargers are hit hard with injuries at running back with Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler listed as doubtful for this game with injuries which will make it difficult for either of them to play on a short week. The team will likely depend on Northwestern rookie Justin Jackson as their lead back tonight. Los Angeles will lean on their defense for this game that is holding their last three opponents to just 260.3 total YPG which has translated into only 20.3 PPG. Overall, the Chargers rank seventh in the NFL by allowing only 331.8 total YPG. They have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing in the month of December — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. Los Angeles has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents. Kansas City is dealing with their own injuries on offense with running back Spencer Ware (replacing Kareem Hunt) and wide receiver Sammie Watkins both doubtful with injuries. The good news for the Chiefs is that it looks like the heart and soul of their defense in safety Eric Berry will make his debut this season after dealing with injuries all season. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home. The Chiefs did surrender 198 rushing yards in that game to the new-look Ravens rushing attack — but they have then played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Kansas City does play much better defense when playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium. They hold their visitors to 356.5 total YPG at home which is -53.1 net YPG below their season average — and they hold their guests to only 18.7 PPG at home as compared to the 33.7 PPG they surrender when playing on the road. The Chiefs have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have also played 11 of their last 15 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. And while the Chiefs have scored at least 26 points in all their games this season, they have then played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Kansas City has generated at least 441 yards of offense in their last three games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in three straight games. And while they have played their last three games Over the Total, the Chiefs have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Kansas City’s 38-28 victory as a 3.5-point road underdog in Week One of this season. In this rematch being played on a short week with both teams on their third-string running back from that initial game, expect a lower-scoring game this time around. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-10-18 |
Vikings v. Seahawks UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
7-21 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (133) and the Seattle Seahawks (134). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-5-1) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-10 loss at New England as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Seattle (7-5) has won three straight games with their 43-16 win over San Francisco as a 10-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings managed only 278 yards of offense on the road against the Patriots with Minnesota only being on offense for 26:39 minutes of that game. Head coach Mike Zimmer may fire his offensive coordinator mid-game if John DeFilippo does not have his team run the football more tonight after weeks of criticism on this front resulted in a mere 13 rushing attempts last week. The Vikings did run the ball 29 times two weeks ago in their 24-17 win over the Packers — Minnesota needs to embrace this mentality against the Seahawks or risk Seattle being on offense for more than 35 minutes of this game happily burning time off the clock while keeping their defense fresh. As it is, the Vikings have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots’ ability to control Time of Possession helped them rack of 471 yards of offense against the Vikings — but Minnesota has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Vikings rank 6th in the NFL with a total defense that allows 327.8 total YPG. Moving forward, the Vikings have played 22 of their last 36 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. And in their last 4 games in the month of December, Minnesota has played all 4 of these games Under the Total. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in their last four games so the Vikings have to be concerned with that they have been able to do on offense. But the Seahawks have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Furthermore, Seattle has played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests. Head coach Pete Carroll has to remain focused on protecting his young defense that gave up 454 yards of offense last week to a 49ers team that generated 386 of those yards in the air. The Seahawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Moving forward, Seattle has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: In a game between two teams with playoff aspirations with head coaches with defensive backgrounds, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (133) and the Seattle Seahawks (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-18 |
Rams v. Bears UNDER 51.5 |
Top |
6-15 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (119) and the Chicago Bears (120). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-1) has won three straight games with their 30-16 win at Detroit last week as a 10.5-point favorite. Chicago (8-4) saw their five-game winning streak snapped last week with their 30-27 upset loss in New York to the Giants as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears held the Giants to just 338 yards of offense but were plagued by a -2 net turnover margin which included an 8-yard interception that accounted for the seven of the points that New York scored. Chicago is 4th in the NFL by allowing only 20.1 PPG and just 317.9 rushing YPG. When playing at home in Soldier Field, the Bears see those numbers drop even further to allowing just 19.5 PPG along with only 291.3 total YPG. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and the Monsters on the Midway have also played 34 of their last 50 games at home Under the Total when an underdog of no more than 3 points. The Bears will be getting Mitchell Trubisky back at quarterback but it remains questionable how effective he will be given the injured throwing shoulder that kept him out the last two weeks. Trubisky has won four straight games that he started before tonight — but let’s keep that quality of competition in mind. Those wins against the Jets, Bills, Lions, Vikings were against opponents that entered the day with a weak 17-30-1 combined record. It is telling that Trubisky had only four touchdown passes against the four opponents. Moving forward, Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. It will be cold in the Windy City tonight with temperates expected to be in the high-20s. The Bears have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December. I expect this cold weather to bother quarterback Jared Goff who as a California kid growing up and in college at Cal has rarely been asked to play in this kind of weather. Goff played with the temperatures in the 20s earlier this season in Denver back on October 14th — and that was one of his worst games of the season as he completed just 14 of 28 passes for only 201 yards. He did not throw a touchdown pass in that game while throwing one interception and getting sacked five times. He will certainly be under pressure tonight from Khalil Mack and company who have accounted for 37 sacks on the quarterback this season. Look for the Rams to commit to Todd Gurley as they look to run the football to take pressure off Goff in these conditions against an elite defense. Goff is a finesse passer who cannot be expected to have the same touch in these conditions as he does when playing in warmer weather. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Rams have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win on the road. The good news for this football team is the return of Aqib Talib at cornerback. His absence helps explain why this LA defense has underachieved for much of the season as he offers the team their best cover corner. His presence on the field will likely make the Bears’ one-dimensional in their offensive attack. The Rams defense has been better on the road where they allow 22.5 PPG which is more than 2 points less than their 24.8 PPG season defensive average. FINAL TAKE: Weather should play a role in this game between two teams from the NFC destined for the playoffs. Look for this game to become a defensive struggle. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (119) and the Chicago Bears (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-18 |
Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 |
|
23-29 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (129) and the Dallas Cowboys (130). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-6) has won two straight games with their 28-13 win over Washington as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday Night Football. Dallas (7-5) has won four straight games after their 13-10 upset win over New Orleans as a 7.5-point underdog back on November 29th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after winning two straight games. And while Philadelphia has only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Defense is the concern for this team that has been ravaged with injuries with that unit. They allowed the Skins to average 6.03 Yards-Per-Play after the Giants and Saints averaged 7.31 and 7.91 YPP in their previous two games. But the Eagles have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in their last game while playing 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 YPP in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to average at least 6.0 YPP. Dallas has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning two straight games. The Cowboys held the Saints scoreless in the first-half of that game — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not giving up more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Additionally, Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Cowboys’ 27-20 victory over the Eagles back on November 11th where they were 7.5-point road dogs. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a loss as a favorite laying at least 7 points. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (129) and the Dallas Cowboys (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-18 |
Saints v. Bucs UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
28-14 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (113) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (114). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-2) takes the field again after their 13-10 loss at Dallas back on November 29th as a 7.5-point favorite that snapped their ten-game winning streak. Tampa Bay (5-7) has won two straight games after they upset Carolina at home last Sunday by a 24-17 score as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite laying at least a touchdown. Don’t blame the defense for that loss as they held the Cowboys to just 308 yards of offense. The New Orleans defense is underrated. Not only do the Saints lead the NFL in rushing defense by limiting their opponents to just 75.3 rushing YPG, but they are also doing a fantastic job of pressuring the quarterback. Over their last four games, New Orleans has generated 20 sacks while registering 34 hits on the quarterback. They have only allowed more than 23 points once (to the Rams in that shootout) in their last nine games — and in their last three games, they are allowing just 12.3 PPG while giving up only 290.0 total YPG. The problem for the Saints against Dallas was the offense that managed to gain a mere 176 total yards. Look for New Orleans to deploy their preferred offensive strategy when playing on the road which is to run the football to burn clock and keep the opposing quarterback off the field. This should be a very effective strategy to limit Jameis Winston’s effectiveness. Since Week Nine, the Buccaneers are allowing 134.6 rushing YPG while seeing opposing rushers average 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Tampa Bay allowed the Panthers to generate 161 rushing yards against them last week on the heels of the 49ers rushing for 181 yards against them two weeks ago. The Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. They also have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Tampa Bay upset Carolina last week despite only gaining 315 yards of offense against them. The Bucs have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning their last two games at home — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of December. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 4 straight games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 13 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, the Bucs have played 11 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 20 meetings Under the Total — and this includes 8 of the last 10 encounters in Tampa Bay finishing below the number. The oddsmakers have installed an over/under the number in the mid-50s given the 48-40 shootout that the Bucs pulled out in an upset back on September 9th. The Saints’ defense has more to prove in this rematch than even the offense does after last week. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (113) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-18 |
Navy v. Army UNDER 41 |
Top |
10-17 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104). THE SITUATION: Navy (3-9) enters their rivalry game coming off a 29-28 loss at Tulane as a 5-point underdog back on November 24th. Army (9-2) has won seven straight games with their 28-24 win over Colgate as an 11-point favorite back on November 17th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams have played 10 straight Unders — and there are a few fundamental reasons why that is the case. For starters, both teams run similar spread triple options — so the usual advantage that these teams enjoy during the regular season with facing opponents that are not as familiar with their unique offenses are gone in this matchup. Both these defenses practice against this offense every day. Second, both teams have extra weeks to prepare their defenses for the particular nuances of their opponent’s offense. In theory, this extra time could also be used to add a few wrinkles to the offenses. However, in practice, both these teams lack the personnel to all of the sudden start running the West Coast Offense (for example). Now, we cannot simply be zombies and automatically take the Under in each Army-Navy game. This year’s Total has dropped to the 40 point range which is the lowest number over those last ten encounters. Eventually, the Over will be the appropriate play. But when considering that five of the last six meetings between these two teams have not seen more than 38 combined points scored, I am still very comfortable taking the Under in this game. Army should slow down the Midshipmen rushing attack as they rank 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 106.5 rushing YPG. The Black Knights have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the month of December. Furthermore, Army has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing with a bye week — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing on grass. Navy has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total in the month of December. Additionally, the Midshipmen have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Navy only scores 21.7 PPG when playing away from home — and they average just 310.4 total YPG on the road. Lastly, the Midshipmen have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams in cold temperatures (but no snow) with Philadelphia forecasting to have their temp in the 30s. 25* CFB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-07-18 |
TCU v. USC UNDER 150 |
|
96-61 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the TCU Horned Frogs (527) and the USC Trojans (528). THE SITUATION: TCU (6-1) has won three games in a row with their 67-59 win at SMU on Wednesday as a 1.5-point favorite. USC (5-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 73-61 loss to Nevada as a 6-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Horned Frogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. TCU entered this season with head coach Jamie Dixon making improving their play on the defensive end of the court a high priority. Defending the perimeter was particularly important to Dixon after the Horned Frogs allowed Big 12 opponents to make a whopping 42% of their 3-pointers. So far, so good this season as their opponents are making just 25.9% of their shots from behind the arc which is 8th best in the nation. Overall, TCU ranks 13th in the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of just 43.1%. The Horned Frogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. TCU has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed as the favorite. USC has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 11 of the last 13 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while their last game with the Wolf Pack finished below the 161 point Total, the Trojans have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. USC is also playing strong defense as they rank 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.5%. The Trojans have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. USC has played their last three games at home — and they have then played 27 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing three straight games at home. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, the Trojans have played 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is the middle game of a three-game event at the Staples Center in Los Angeles for the Hall of Fame Classic. Expect a lower scoring game on this neutral court for both teams. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the TCU Horned Frogs (527) and the USC Trojans (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-06-18 |
Rockets v. Jazz OVER 215 |
Top |
91-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (705) and the Utah Jazz (706). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-12) saw their two-game winning streak end on Monday with their 103-91 loss at Minnesota despite being a 2.5-point favorite in that game. Utah (12-13) has won three of their last four games with their dominant 139-105 win over San Antonio on Tuesday as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jazz may have had a breakthrough on the offensive end of the court. They shot a season-high 60.7% from the field — but the encouraging aspect of that game was that all thirteen players registered at least one assist in that game. Looking for the extra pass creates better scoring opportunities — and twelve of the Utah players made at least 50% of their shots in that game with seven players scoring in double-digits. The Jazz also made 20 shots from behind the arc while making a whopping 60.6% of their 3-point shots. The Over is 8-1-1 in Utah’s last 10 games after a game where they scored at least 125 points in their last game. The Jazz have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Defense remains a concern for this team, however, as they are allowing visiting teams to make 49.6% of their shots on their home court which has translated into 112.4 PPG. Utah has played 7 straight games Over the Total on their home court. Houston has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Rockets have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Houston has a healthy Chris Paul back into the mix again but they made only 43.2% of their shots on Monday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Even with that poor performance, the Rockets are scoring a robust 117.4 PPG on 47.5% shooting with Paul back on the court over their last five games with that field goal percentage far above their 44.9% mark for the season. Houston also held the Timberwolves to just a 43.9% field goal percentage which was their lowest opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. Unfortunately, that effort was likely an aberration for a team that has allowed their last nine opponents to score 116.1 PPG which has contributed to them drop to 25th in the league in Defensive Rating. Even after Monday, the Rockets have allowed their last five opponents to make 49% of their shots with this team still not finding answers on the defensive end of the court after not resigning Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute in the offseason. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 4 of the last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 21 of their last 32 games Over the Total in the month of December.
FINAL TAKE: With this Total set in the high 210s, expect both teams to reach the 110 point threshold in what shapes up to be a barn burner. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (705) and the Utah Jazz (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-06-18 |
Jaguars v. Titans OVER 37.5 |
|
9-30 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (101) and the Tennessee Titans (102). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 26-22 win over the New York Jets as a 10.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-8) ended their seven-game losing streak with their 6-0 shutout victory over Indianapolis as a 4-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Not only was the Jaguars’ shutout effort last week an outlier performance but so was their failure to score more than 6 points. Jacksonville has played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after scoring no more than 6 points in their last game. The Jaguars have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing a game where less than 20 combined points were scored. Furthermore, Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing less than 15 points in their last game — and they have also played 32 of their last 47 games Over the Total after allowing less than 10 points in their last contest. The Jaguars limited the Colts to averaging a mere 3.90 Yards-Per-Play — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to averaging no better than 4.0 YPP. Additionally, Jacksonville has played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Moving forward, the Jaguars are looking to avenge a 9-6 loss to the Titans back on September 23rd where they were 10-point favorites at home. But Jacksonville has played 16 of their last 25 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by a field goal or less — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss where they were laying at least 7 points as the home favorite. Tennessee has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Titans have failed to over the point spread in three straight games as well — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Tennessee did give up 156 rushing yards in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Titans run defense has become an issue as they have allowed over 150 rushing YPG over their last three games with opposing rushers averaging 5.57 Yards-Per-Carry. This defense will be facing Leonard Fournette who will be taking the field with “fresh legs” after not playing last Sunday. Tennessee stays at home where the Over is 39-18-2 in their last 59 games against teams with a losing record on the road. And while the Titans out-gained the Jets last week by +123 net yards, they have then played 17 of their last 23 home games Over the Total after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Lastly, Tennessee has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total for Thursday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: Given the low-scoring result these two teams had in September and the shutout win for the Jaguars enjoyed on Sunday, this Total is under 40 tonight. While sometimes at low Total should not dissuade us from taking the Under, this game should (somehow) get into the 40s. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (101) and the Tennessee Titans (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-18 |
Hornets v. Wolves UNDER 221.5 |
Top |
104-121 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (509) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (510). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (11-12) has lost two straight games with their 119-109 loss to New Orleans on Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Minnesota (12-12) has won five of their last six games with their 103-91 win over Houston on Monday as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: One of the results of the Jimmy Butler trade for the Timberwolves was an improvement of their play on the defensive end of the court. Adding Robert Covington and Dario Saric gives the team two players who are strong defenders. Over their last five games, Minnesota is holding their opponents to just 42.3% shooting which is significantly better than their 45.5% opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. Save for the Celtics scoring 117 points against them, the T-Wolves have held their other four opponents to no more than 95 points. Their victory over the Rockets on Monday fell well below the 223 point total — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Timberwolves have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. And in their last 8 games against fellow Eastern Conference opponents, Minnesota has played 6 of these games Under the Total. Charlotte has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents. The Hornets have suffered two straight upset losses at home as they enter this game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two straight games Under the Total after suffering two straight losses at home as the favorite. Additionally, Charlotte has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 225 combined point were scored. They go back on the road where they are making only 42.8% of their shots which is a bit lower than their 46% field goal percentage for the season. The Hornets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The team trends strongly indicate that both teams tend to play lower than expected scoring games in situations like this. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (509) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-18 |
Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 144 |
Top |
77-67 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (529) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (530). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (7-1) enters this game coming off their 79-59 win over Minnesota as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Illinois (2-6) has lost their last two games with their 75-60 loss at Nebraska as a 13-point underdog at Nebraska.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Ohio State has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team plays excellent defense for head coach Chris Holtmann as they rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 10th in the country by holding their opponents to just a 42.2% effective field goal percentage — and opponents are shooting only 37.2% from the field against them overall. This game is being played on a neutral court in the Chicago Bulls’ United Center. The Buckeyes are scoring only 66.5 PPG with a 45.1% field goal percentage in their two games away from Columbus so far this season. Those numbers are far below their 78.4 PPG and 48.3 % shooting marks for the season. Ohio State has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Illinois has seen the Under go 20-8-1 in their last 29 games after a straight-up win. Brad Underwood’s team is launching plenty of shots — they have attempted 11 and 14 more shots than their opponents over their last two games. The Illini have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after shooting at least 10 more times than their opponent in two straight games. Illinois has played five of their games away from Champagne this season — and they are averaging only 70.8 PPG while making only 40.6% of their shots which is far below their 77.4 PPG scoring average for the season along with their 44.9% field goal percentage for the year. The Illini have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em on a neutral court. Illinois has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 encounters Under the Total. With this game being played in an unfamiliar environment for both teams, expect another lower-scoring game. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (529) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-18 |
Leicester v. Fulham UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (2507) and Fulham (2508). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (6-3-5) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win over Watford on Saturday. Fulham (2-2-10) looks to bounce-back from a 2-0 loss to Chelsea on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Leicester City has tightened things up on defense as of late. Over their last five English Premier League matches, they have allowed only two goals. This focus on defense has come at the expense of limiting their scoring chances. The Foxes have scored only five goals in those last five matches. Against Watford, they relied on their counter-attack as they controlled possession for just 37.7% of that match. They were out-shot by an 8 to 7 mark. Leicester City will be without their top goal-scorer in Jamie Vardy who is out with a groin injury. That is not a good sign for their goal-scoring prospects when considering that they average only 1.43 Goals-Per-Game on the road. But the Foxes do play tight defense away from home as they are giving up just 1.57 Goals-Per-Game on the road. The Expected Goals advanced metric suggests that Leicester City should be seeing fewer goals scored in their matches. They have accumulated 20 goals this season with the xG being at 18.48. They have allowed 17 goals but the xGA is slightly lower at 16.26. Fulham has played two matches since former Leicester City manager Claudio Ranieri took over of Slavisa Jovanovic. Ranieri’s primary responsibility right now is to tighten up a defense that has allowed the most goals in the EPL. Allowing only four goals in his first two matches (including a potent Chelsea side) is a good start for this team. The Cottagers have been a bit unlucky with bad luck as their xGA is 29.03 which is far below the 35 goals they have allowed. Fulham has scored 14 times this season — but the xG is a tad lower at 13.35. The Cottagers have managed only nine goals in their six matches at home this season.
FINAL TAKE: Ranieri certainly is familiar with many of the current Foxes having led them to the EPL title in 2015-16. Fulham is playing a bit more controlled under his leadership. Expect a lower scoring contest. 25* EPL Midweek Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (2507) and Fulham (2508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-04-18 |
Magic v. Heat UNDER 207 |
Top |
105-90 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (703) and the Miami Heat (704). THE SITUATION: Orlando (11-12) snapped their two-game losing streak on Friday with their 99-85 win at Phoenix as a 4-point favorite. Miami (9-13) has won two straight games after their 102-100 upset at Utah as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat’s win was their second straight upset victory after they stunned New Orleans as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Miami has then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win as a home underdog. The Heat have also played 9 straight games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. Furthermore, Miami has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. This is a team riddled with injuries right now. Dion Waiters and Goran Dragic are both out indefinitely and Rodney McGruder is questionable with the ankle injury he suffered in that game with the Jazz. The Heat pulled off that upset win despite making only 39.6% of their shots — and this team is still without their best offensive pieces. They stay at home where they are shooting only 43.1% from the field. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at home. Orlando has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. They go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Magic have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Orlando has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. And in their last 5 games against fellow Eastern Conference opponents, the game finished Under the Total 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on opening night this season with the Magic pulling the 104-101 upset with that final score finishing just below the 207.5 point total. Expect another Under tonight. 25* NBA Southeast Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (703) and the Miami Heat (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-03-18 |
Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
13-28 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (379) and the Philadelphia Eagles (380). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-5) has lost two straight games after their 31-23 win at Dallas back on Thanksgiving as a 7-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 25-22 win over the New York Giants as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Skins have been ravaged with injuries on the offensive side of the football. While the biggest lost player is quarterback Alex Smith, the attrition this team has suffered on their offensive line would devastate most teams. Washington has put four of their players that began the season on their two-deep depth chart on Injured Reserve with three of these players being starters — and their six-time Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams is questionable for tonight with rib and ankle injuries. The Skins are averaging 20.0 PPG for the season while scoring 19.1 PPG over their last three games and it is difficult seeing them putting up many more points than that. Adrian Peterson’s production has significantly declined as these injuries on the offensive line have mounted. Over the last month, the running back is averaging only 3.05 Yards-Per-Carry — and he has not reached 70 yards from scrimmage since October 28th. Washington rushed for just 80 yards against the Cowboys — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they failed to rush for at least 90 yards. Furthermore, the Skins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Quarterback Colt McCoy was a victim of this injured offensive line as well. He was sacked three times by Dallas while getting hitting eight times in that game. Washington has also been hit with injuries on defense but this unit is still playing well. For the season, the Skins rank 8th the NFL by allowing only 20.8 PPG led by a stout run defense that also ranks 8th in the league by allowing 100.3 rushing YPG. Over their last three games, Washington is allowing just 19.4 PPG — and they hold their home hosts to only 19.2 PPG. The Skins did allow 258 passing yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Washington has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Skins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles defense gave up 276 passing yards along with 402 total yards of offense to the Giants — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while they allowed 7.31 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP. Philly is riddled with injuries in their secondary — but it helps that they are only facing McCoy rather than Smith at quarterback tonight. The Eagles are still playing strong run defense that ranks 10th in the league by allowing 103.6 rushing YPG. But this Philly offense is scoring only 17.3 PPG along with just 319.3 total YPG over their last three games. Philadelphia stays at home where they are holding only scoring 20.2 PPG — but they are also holding their visitors to that number. The Eagles have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Philly has played 7 straight home games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 8 straight home games Under the Total after playing an NFC East rival.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams have been hit very hard by the injury bug. Since the onus is on the offensive to execute plays to move the football, usually it is the defenses that look relatively better when injuries are spread out on both sides of the football. Expect a lower-scoring game between these two divisional rivals playing for the first time this season. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (379) and the Philadelphia Eagles (380). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-18 |
Chargers v. Steelers UNDER 53 |
Top |
33-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (353) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (354). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-3) has won seven of their last eight games with their 45-10 win over Arizona last week as a 14-point favorite. Pittsburgh (7-3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 24-17 upset loss at Denver as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers are playing outstanding defense right now — and that unit is even better now that Joey Bosa has returned after missing most of the season due to injury. Los Angeles has allowed less than 20 points in six of their last seven games. Over their last three games, the Chargers are allowing just 13.0 PPG along with only 263.7 total YPG. This strong defensive play should continue tonight as the Under is 35-16-1 in the LA’s last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers did generate 414 yards of offense last week against the Cardinals — but they have then seen the Under go 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Unfortunately for this offense, they will be without their top running back, Melvin Gordon tonight who is out with a knee injury. Now the Chargers go back on the road where they are only averaging 368.0 total YPG which is 34 YPG below their season average. But the LA defense keeps them competitive away from home as they hold their opponents to just 18.5 PPG. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh has only scored 37 combined points over their last two games. They are getting outstanding play from their defense that not only leads the NFL in sacks but is allowing only 20.3 PPG along with just 264.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Steelers have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two of there last three games. Pittsburgh did generate 527 yards of offense last week while averaging 7.12 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game and they have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Pittsburgh needs to get their rushing attack going again after only rushing for 75 yards in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to gain more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. The Steelers have averaged 403.6 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three games. Lastly, Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The high Total set in the low-50s suggests that this shapes up to be a scoring fest. However, both these teams are playing great defense — scoring is going to be harder to come by for both teams. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (353) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (354). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-18 |
Vikings v. Patriots UNDER 49.5 |
|
10-24 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (375) and the New England Patriots (376). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-4-1) has won five of their last seven games with their 24-17 win over Green Bay last week as a 3.5-point favorite. New England (8-3) has won seven of their last eight games with their 27-13 win at New York against the Jets last Sunday as a 12-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. New England generated 498 yards of offense against the Jets — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Patriots have averaged 405 Yards-Per-Game over their last three contests — but they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG over their last three contests. Yet despite that yardage, they are scoring just 22.7 PPG over their last three games. But the defense has kept up as they are only giving up 21.3 PPG in those three games. The Jets did pass for 264 yards against them last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. New England has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog. Kirk Cousins passed for 342 yards last week against the Packers defense — but they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. But despite that effort last week, the Vikings are scoring only 22.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging 322.3 total YPG which is over 45 yards below their season average. But the Minnesota defense is tightening up as they are allowing only 17.0 PPG over their last three games along with just 257.0 total YPG. Lastly, the Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of December.
FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are playing more ball control on offense as of late — while the Vikings defense has stepped up their level of play. Expect a lower-scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (375) and the New England Patriots (376). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-18 |
Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (351) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (352). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-5) has won five straight games with their 27-24 win over Miami last week as a 9-point favorite. Jacksonville (3-8) has lost seven straight games with their 24-21 win at Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have hit rock bottom — so head coach Doug Marrone fired offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and benched quarterback Blake Bortles. But new offensive coordinator Scott Milanovich is still limited by the offensive talent available to him. Quarterback Cody Kessler has only played in thirteen NFL games in his career. And the team will be without running back Leonard Fournette who was suspended for one game for his roughhouse behavior in last week’s game with the Bills. Jacksonville is scoring only 17.9 PPG. But the maligned Jaguars’ defense has played much better at home where they are holding their opponents to just 16.2 PPG along with only 261.6 total YPG. Last week’s game with Buffalo went Over the 36.5 point Total — but Jacksonville has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game that went Over. The Jaguars have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Bills did rush for 167 yards last week — but the Jags have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at home. And in their last 7 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Jaguars have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Colts generated 455 yards of offense in that game, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Indy suffered a -2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Colts defense has stepped up their level of play as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 20.0 PPG along with only 330.7 total YPG. Andrew Luck has led an offense that has scored at least 27 points in six straight games — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in five straight games. Moving forward, Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 12 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Colts have played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 29-26 win back on November 11th. While that game flew Over the 48 point Total, these two teams have still played 11 of their last 15 meetings Under the Total. Expect this rematch to be a lower-scoring game. 25* AFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (351) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (352). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-18 |
Clemson v. Pittsburgh UNDER 54 |
|
42-10 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (320) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (319). THE SITUATION: Clemson (12-0) remained undefeated last week with their 56-35 win over South Carolina as a 25.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (7-5) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with their 24-3 loss at Miami as a 6-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers played their worst defensive season of the year last week against the Gamecocks as they allowed 600 yards of offense. 510 of those passing yards were in the air — but the Under is 3-0-1 in Clemson’s last 4 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. That game flew way over the 58.5 point total — and the Tigers have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Head coach Dabo Swinney will be demanding better play out of his defense the still ranks 7th in the nation by allowing 283.2 total YPG — and that unit ranks 4th in the FBS by giving up only 14.0 PPG. This defense played even better when they play away from home as they are allowing only 13.4 PPG along with just 262.6 total YPG on the road. But who many points with this powerful Clemson offense put up tonight as they approach being four-touchdown favorites after generating an incredible 744 yards of offense last week. Some insight to that question is that the Tigers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Additionally, the Tigers have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of December. Pittsburgh has seen the Under go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 gamers after a point spread loss. The Under is also 14-6-1 in their last 21 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Panthers are run-dependent as they rank 17th in the nation by averaging 232.7 rushing YPG. But they will be running into one of the best defensive lines in the nation as Clemson ranks 2nd in the country by giving up only 84.8 rushing YPG. That will force the Panthers to rely on the passing arm of sophomore quarterback Kenny Pickett — but he is overseeing an offense that ranks 120th in the nation by averaging 153.4 passing YPG. Pitt has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Clemson has held six of their twelve opponents to 10 points or less this season. With the Panthers being so one-dimensional, it is difficult seeing them score many points tonight. 10* CFB Clemson-Pittsburgh ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (320) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-18 |
UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 58 |
Top |
19-30 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (313) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (314). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (7-5) reached the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game with their 31-28 upset win at UL-Monroe last Saturday as a 1.5-point underdog. Appalachian State (9-2) has won four games in a row with their 21-10 win over Troy last week as a 12-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over a conference rival. Appalachian State held the Trojans to just 223 yards of offense while winning the rushing battle by a decisive 139 net yards. The Mountaineers have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after out-rushing their last opponent by at least 125 yards. Appalachian State’s spread option offensive attack defines the program — but that aspect of their game should not distract from the outstanding defense that head coach Scott Satterfield has overseen in his sixth year with the program. Five starters returned to a defense that was tied for 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 20.2 PPG — and they also ranked 29th in total defense by allowing only 342.5 total YPG. This year’s unit has been even better as they rank 5th in the nation by allowing just 15.4 PPG — and they also rank 4th in the FBS by giving up only 278.2 total YPG. The Mountaineers are even stingier playing at home where they give up only 11.6 PPG along with just 271.4 total YPG — and over their last three games, this group is allowing a mere 11.3 PPG along with 259.7 total YPG. Appalachian State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. UL-Lafayette raced out to a 24-21 halftime lead against the Warhawks last week before hanging out to win by a 31-28 score. The Ragin’ Cajuns have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 3 points or less — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in the first-half of their last contest. UL-Lafayette has scored at least 31 points in three straight games — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games. Furthermore, the Ragin Cajuns have seen the Under go 17-8-1 in their last 26 games in Sun Belt Conference play — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December. This championship game is a rematch of the October 20th meeting between these two teams that the Mountaineers won by a 27-17 score in their Kidd Brewer Stadium. The Ragin’ Cajuns did a pretty good job of slowing down the Appalachian State offense as they generated only 364 total yards which were over 118 yards below their season offensive average when playing at home. UL-Lafayette has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent.
FINAL TAKE: The Ragin Cajuns should play even better on defense in this rematch with the benefit of their experience facing this offensive scheme in October. UL-Lafayette ranks 104th in the nation by allowing 443.3 total YPG but they have allowed over -45 YPG less than that over their last three games. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* CFB Conference Championships Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (313) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-18 |
Utah v. Washington UNDER 45 |
Top |
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the Washington Huskies (306). THE SITUATION: Utah (9-3) has won three straight games with their 35-27 win over BYU last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite. Washington (9-3) has also won three in a row after they upset Washington State on the road last Friday as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Washington held the powerful Cougars offense to only 237 total yards in an outstanding defensive effort — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Huskies were one of my dark horse candidates to win the National Championship this season in large part because they returned nine starters from a stout group that was 5th in the nation by allowing only 16.1 PPG while ranking 8th in the FBS by holding their opponents to just 298.8 total YPG. This year’s defense ranks 8th in the FBS by allowing 16.5 PPG while also ranking 13th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 311.3 total YPG — so this group has only a slight decline in their outstanding numbers. What has held this Washington team back has been a disappointing offense that is scoring only 28.0 PPG (tied for 75th in the nation) after averaging 36.2 PPG last season with quarterback Jake Browning and running back Myles Gaskin as juniors. The offensive line has taken a step back this season with the unit suffering a big loss with the season-ending injury to senior left tackle Trey Adams who was projected as a potential top-ten pick in the NFL draft. The Huskies did generate 487 yards against the Cougars last week — but they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The formula for success for head coach Chris Petersen’s team is winning the war in the trenches. They have out-rushed their last three opponents by at least 100 yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after out-rushing their last three opponents by at least 100 yards. Washington has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their 10 games Under the Total as the favorite. Utah has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing on the road after a victory on their home field. Furthermore, the Utes have played 20 of their last 28 road games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Utah only gained 296 yards of offense against the Cougars but benefited from a 27-yard interception that they returned for a touchdown. The Utes have an elite defense that allows only 19.3 PPG (17th in the nation) — and they rank 15th in the FBS by only allowing 315.8 total YPG. Utah has the nation’s 5th best rushing defense that holds their opponents to only 100.3 rushing YPG — led by defensive line coach Gary Andersen who was a steal of a hire by head coach Kyle Whittingham after his stint at Oregon State soured last season. This is a rematch of the Huskies’ 21-7 victory over the Utes back on September 15th. Utah had junior Tyler Huntley under center for that game along with junior Zack Moss in their backfield — but both leaders on offense have since suffered season-ending injuries. For this rematch, the Utes will be using redshirt freshman Jason Shelley under center. While he has played well, he is likely a step back from Huntley who led an offense that only generated 261 yards with the one score. The defense did limit the Huskies to just 327 yards in that initial game — and I expect another gritty defensive performance. Utah has played 31 of their last 48 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Utah knows they cannot get into a high-scoring affair with the Huskies given the injuries they have suffered on offense. This Washington team only scores 22.2 PPG in their six games away from home — so this game shapes up to be a low-scoring contest. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the Washington Huskies (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-18 |
Blues v. Avalanche UNDER 6 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (9) and the Colorado Avalanche (10). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (8-12-3) has lost two straight games — as well as five of their last six contests — with their 4-3 loss in Detroit on Wednesday. Colorado (15-6-3) has won six straight games with their 6-3 win over Pittsburgh on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blues have played three straight Overs where at least seven combined goals were scored. But St. Louis has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs — and they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games where at least seven combined goals were scored. The Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 games when facing a team who scored at least five goals in their last game. The Blues stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, St. Louis has played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after losing at least two straight games. The team is rumored to be interested in trading for goaltender Jimmy Howard of the Red Wings with their goalie Jake Allen struggling. Allen has been a disaster at home where he has been saddled with a 3.86 Goals-Against-Average along with an .879 save percentage — but those numbers do drop to respectable a 2.74 GAA with a .911 save percentage at home. Allen has also recovered from a bad opening month to post a 2.65 GAA with a .915 save percentage for November. Additionally, St. Louis has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents. Colorado has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against Central Division opponents. They have scored at least three goals in six straight games — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least three goals in two straight games. The Avalanche have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game. This is Colorado’s third game since Monday — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing their third game in five days. They are getting goaltending from Semyon Varlamov who has a 2.15 GAA with a .928 save percentage when playing at home. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Avalanche’s last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 15-7-1 in their last 23 meetings. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (9) and the Colorado Avalanche (10). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-29-18 |
Saints v. Cowboys UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
10-13 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-1) has won ten straight games after their 31-17 win over Atlanta last Thursday as an 11.5-point favorite. Dallas (6-5) has won three games in a row with their 31-23 win over Washington at home last Thanksgiving as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While the Saints offense that leads the NFL by scoring 37.2 PPG, the continued improved play of their defense too often gets the short shrift. New Orleans has allowed only 12.7 PPG over their last three games while limiting their last three opponents to just 282.0 total YPG. The Saints have not allowed more than 23 points in seven of their last eight games with the lone exception being their 45-35 shootout with the Rams. The New Orleans run defense leads the NFL by allowing only 73.2 YPG — and opposing rushers average just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Nine of their last ten opponents have failed to rush for more than 100 yards — and their last three opponents have managed only 65 rushing YPG. The Saints pass rush has stepped as of late as well as they have combined for 13 sacks along with 25 hits on the quarterback over the last three weeks. This unit will be infused the return of their breakout rookie defensive lineman Marcus Davenport who has missed the last few weeks with a toe injury. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Saints have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. While New Orleans has scored at least 30 points in five straight games, they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in their last five contests. As the weather begins to turn, the Saints are starting to emphasize their rushing attack a bit more with Mark Ingram back in the mix after serving his four-game suspension. Drew Brees only attempted 22 passes last week against the Falcons. New Orleans only generated 312 yards of offense last week against the Atlanta defense. The Saints tend to run the ball more when they go on the road as well — they have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. The formula for defeating the Saints will certainly be to run the ball to burn time off the clock and keep Brees off the field — Dallas is 5-1 this season when Ezekiel Elliott rushes for at least 100 yards. Despite last week’s offensive effort against the Skins, the Cowboys have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Dallas has an outstanding defense that is 3rd in the NFL by allowing just 19.4 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up a mere 331.1 total YPG. The Cowboys run defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 93.6 YPG — and they are allowing only 3.46 YPC. They held Washington to just 80 rushing yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Dallas has not allowed more than 28 points to an opponent all season. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these are going to attempt to run the football — yet both might be stymied in these efforts when facing their opposing strong run defenses. While that will likely lead to a course of events that will see more passing, the lack of an effective ground game will slow down these offenses. With the Total in the low-50s given the prowess of the Saints offense, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-27-18 |
Golden Knights v. Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
8-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (65) and the Chicago Blackhawks (66). THE SITUATION: Vegas (12-12-0) has won three straight games with their 6-0 win over San Jose on Saturday. Chicago (9-10-4) looks to build off their 5-4 win in overtime at Florida on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is heating up after a slow start in the first month of the season. Fleury pulled off the rare feat of registering two straight shutout victories on successive nights as his win over the Sharks was preceded by a 2-0 shutout win against Calgary. Fleury has a sparkling 2.19 Goals-Against-Average with a .924 save percentage in eleven starts this month. The Golden Knights have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game — and they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win. Now they go on the road where they are scoring only 2.5 Goals-Per-Game as compared to their meager 2.8 Goals-Per-Game scoring average for the season. Additionally, the Golden Knights have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing their fourth game in seven days. Furthermore, Vegas has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Chicago has played 6 straight home games Under the Total when playing their fourth game in seven days — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against Western Conference foes. They have also played a decisive 47 of their 71 home games Under the Total after a win in overtime. The Blackhawks return home where goalie Corey Crawford has been outstanding this season with a 1.57 GAA along with a .947 save percentage in seven starts this year. The Under is 27-11-2 in Chicago’s last 40 games at home — and they have played 20 of their last 26 home games Under the Total with the number set at 5.5.
FINAL TAKE: In this game between two Stanley Cup-winning goaltenders playing very well right now, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NHL Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (65) and the Chicago Blackhawks (66). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-18 |
Titans v. Texans UNDER 43 |
Top |
17-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (273) and the Houston Texans (274). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (5-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 38-10 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog. Houston (7-3) has won seven straight games with their 23-21 win at Washington as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans lost their defensive coordinator Dean Pees in the middle of their game with the Colts as he went to the hospital with a medical scare — that had to play a role in them allowing 397 yards of offense. Pees has been cleared to run the defense tonight for this game. Expect a better effort from this Tennessee defense that allows only 19.7 PPG along with 305.8 total YPG when they are playing on the road. The Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least three touchdowns. Tennessee has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. But the Titans only score 16.3 PPG away from home while averaging a mere 297.2 total YPG. Tennessee has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Titans have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the game finished Under the Total all 6 times. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC South foes. The Texans have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Houston’s previous game was also on the road in what resulted in a 19-17 win at Denver against the Broncos. The Texans have played 6 straight games Under the Total after winning two straight games by 6 points or less. Houston returns home where they are allowing only 19.7 PPG and just 317.5 total YPG. Since Week Five, the Texans are allowing only 17.5 PPG with an improved defense. Furthermore, Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of November. And in their last 5 appearances for Monday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played back on September 16th with the Titans pulling off a 20-17 upset as the home underdog. Expect another lower-score game in this rematch. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (273) and the Houston Texans (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-18 |
Packers v. Vikings OVER 48 |
|
17-24 |
Loss |
-102 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (271) and the Minnesota Vikings (272). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-4-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 25-20 loss last Sunday night in Chicago to the Bears as a 2.5-point underdog. Green Bay (4-5-1) has lost three of their last four contests with their 27-24 loss in Seattle last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Green Bay’s defense is letting them down — but Aaron Rodgers has enough juice to keep his team in the game which is pushing games to finish Over the Total. The Packers allowed 378 yards of offense last week to the Seahawks — and they have then played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay generated 359 yards in that loss — and they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Packers stay on the road where they are allowing 29.8 PPG — and all five of their home hosts have scored at least 27 points which seems like a barometer for the Vikings tonight. Green Bay has played 18 of their last 23 games Over the Total on the road. The Packers have also played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Green Bay has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Packers have also played 21 of their last 26 games Over the Total against NFC rivals — and this includes them playing four straight games Over the Total against fellow NFC North rivals. Minnesota fell behind last week by a 14-0 halftime score to the Bears — and they have played 23 of their last 38 games Over the Total after suffering a two-touchdown or worse halftime deficit in their last game which includes them playing three straight Overs in that situation. Quarterback Kirk Cousins enjoyed his best game of the season when these two teams met back on September 16th in that 29-29 tie. Cousins passed for 425 yards in that game while posting a season-high 118.8 Passer Rating and averaging 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt.
FINAL TAKE: The loser of this game is in severe trouble to make the playoffs considering that tonight’s winner secures the tie-breaker between these two teams. That urgency should help push the final score over the number. 10* NFL Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (271) and the Minnesota Vikings (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-18 |
Steelers v. Broncos UNDER 48 |
Top |
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (269) and the Denver Broncos (270). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-2-1) has won six straight games with their 20-16 win over Jacksonville last week as a 4-point favorite. Denver (4-6) snapped their two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 23-22 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Denver allowed 479 yards in that contest — but the Under is then 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Broncos return home where they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against a team with a winning record on the road. Denver has also played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of November. And in their last 6 games as an underdog, the Broncos have played 5 of these games Under the Total. They will certainly try to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep the Steelers off the field. That is what the Jaguars did last week as Pittsburgh was only on offense for 22:20 minutes of that game. As a result, the Steelers generated only 323 yards of offense. Pittsburgh did hold Jacksonville to only 243 yards of offense — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing less than 250 yards in their last game. The Steelers defense has raised their level of play — over their last three games, they are allowing only 17.7 PPG along with just 251.0 total YPG. Now Pittsburgh goes back on the road where they have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total — and they have also played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, not only have the Steelers played 30 of their last 43 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher but they have also played 8 straight road games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Lastly, Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers offense is not nearly as potent when playing on the road they are scoring 5.5 PPG below their season average. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (269) and the Denver Broncos (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-18 |
Patriots v. Jets UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
27-13 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (261) and the New York Jets (262). THE SITUATION: New England (7-3) saw their six-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago with their 34-10 loss at Tennessee as a 6.5-point favorite. New York (3-7) has lost four straight games with their 41-10 loss to Buffalo two Sundays ago where they were a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. It is time for Bill Belichick and his coaching staff to get back to basics: run the football to burn time off the clock and protect their defense. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. This is particularly the case when the Patriots go on the road where their offense is not nearly as explosive as it is in Foxboro. New England is scoring only 20.6 PPG on the road while averaging 312.6 total YPG — and those numbers are far below their 28.0 PPG scoring average along with the 377.2 total YPG they are averaging this season. The Patriots have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, New England has played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after the first month of the season. The Patriots defense has been playing pretty well. Even after their bad effort against the Titans the last time out, they have held their last three opponents to score only 19.0 PPG while averaging just 362.0 total YPG. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East opponents. New York has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset loss at home. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has been declared out for this game with his foot injury — so it will be the veteran Josh McCown under center for this game. What McCown bring in his savvy and knowledge to this position is mitigated by his limited physical skills. He completed 17 of 34 passes against the Bills but that only resulted in 135 yards of offense — and he threw two interceptions. The Jets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. New York is scoring an anemic 8.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 229.3 total YPG. The Jets need to run the football to keep Tom Brady off the field. The Jets defense has been playing pretty well — they have held their last three opponents to just 338.0 total YPG. The Bills behind Matt Barkley (!) generated 451 yards against them in their last game — but they have played 38 of their last 60 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 13 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest, the Jets have played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams this season — they last played on December 31st where the Patriots won by a 26-6 score. These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total — look for this afternoon showdown to make it five in a row. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (261) and the New York Jets (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-18 |
UAB v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 52 |
Top |
3-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (189) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (190). THE SITUATION: UAB (9-2) looks to bounce-back from a 41-20 loss at Texas A&M last Saturday as a 17-point underdog. Middle Tennessee (7-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with their step up in class against a team from the SEC last week in their 34-23 loss at Kentucky as a 16.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Blue Raiders defense for their loss to the Wildcats as they held Kentucky to just 324 yards of offense. A -2 net turnover margin played a critical role in deciding that game. The Under is 7-1-1 in Middle Tennessee’s last 9 games after a straight-up loss. The Blue Raiders surrendered 203 rushing yards to Kentucky in that game — but the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Brent Stockstill did pass for 293 yards in that game — but the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. Now Middle Tennessee returns home where they are allowing only 21.0 PPG which is 6.2 PPG lower than their season average. The Under is 8-1-1 in the Blue Raiders’ last 10 games at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Middle Tennessee has also played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. UAB has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. This team did surrender 41 points to the Aggies last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. UAB holds their home hosts to just 19.0 PPG along with only 294.2 total YPG when playing on the road. But the Blazers see their 31.9 PPG scoring margin for the season drop to just 26.6 PPG when playing away home. UAB has played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total. Furthermore, the Blazers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow Conference USA opponents.
FINAL TAKE: UAB has clinched a spot in the Conference USA championship game next week — and they could face this Blue Raiders team again next week if they lose this game while FIU loses at Marshall (as now a home dog). The Blazers may hold back a trick or two on offense because of this possibility. UAB won last year’s game by a 25-23 score with that total set in the 55.5 range. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (189) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (190). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-18 |
Falcons v. Saints OVER 59 |
Top |
17-31 |
Loss |
-103 |
14 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (109) and the New Orleans (110). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-6) has lost two straight games with their 22-19 loss to Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (9-1) has won nine straight games with their 48-7 blowout victory over Philadelphia on Sunday as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Saints cranked out a whopping 546 yards of offense against the reigning Super Bowl champions — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New Orleans defense did hold the Eagles to just 196 total yards of offense — but they have played 30 of their last 43 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Head coach Sean Payton has his offense push the pace when playing on the fast turf at home in the Superdome. Drew Brees has a perfect 16:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his five home games this year while averaging 350.8 passing YPG. The Saints are averaging 39.4 PPG when playing at home while allowing their visitors to manage 25.4 PPG to result in an average combined score well into the 60s. The Over is 19-8-1 in New Orleans’ last 28 home games. Furthermore, the Saints have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when a double-digit favorite. New Orleans is the hottest team in the league who have covered the point spread in eight straight games — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in at least five straight games. The Saints have also played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NFC South rivals. Atlanta would surely like to run the ball to keep the Saints’ offense off the field but that will be difficult to accomplish with Devonta Freeman on Injured Reserve with his foot injury. The Falcons will not have the luxury of hoping to establish the run if they fall behind early to this New Orleans team that averages 22.4 first-half points when playing at home. Atlanta has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Additionally, the Falcons have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The injury-plagued Atlanta defense will have a difficult time slowing down the Saints offense after allowing their last two opponents to churn out 353 rushing yards while averaging 6.66 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons lack a credible pass rush — they rank in the bottom-five in the NFL by sacking the QB in just 4.8% of opponent pass attempts and they are just hitting the quarterback in 11.1% of their dropbacks. Matt Ryan still has most of his offensive weapons at his disposal in the passing game — so the Falcons should score their share of points as they try to keep pace with the New Orleans offense. Atlanta only generated 329 yards against Dallas last week but that was in large part because they had ten fewer offensive plays than what they typically enjoy. The Falcons still averaged 6.23 Yards-Per-Play against the Cowboys — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Atlanta has played 14 of their last 18 road games Over the Total as a road underdog getting 10.5 to 14 points — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans won the first meeting between these two teams back on September 23rd that the Saints won by a 43-37 score. That was the game where the Falcons began to produce better success in the Red Zone. Atlanta has scored at least 31 points five times this season — and head coach Dan Quinn will have to think that generating at least that many points will be necessary to pull the upset. That is a recipe for another high scoring game. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (109) and the New Orleans (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-18 |
Redskins v. Cowboys UNDER 41 |
|
23-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 23-21 loss to Houston on Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (5-5) pulled off their second-straight upset victory on Sunday with their 22-19 win in Atlanta over the Falcons as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 9 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Cowboys return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record overall. The Over/Under for this game is set in the low 40s — and Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Cowboys are looking to avenge a 20-17 loss to the Skins back on October 21st — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. Dallas has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow NFC East opponents. Washington has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Skins managed only 278 yards of offense against the Texans with the team losing their starting quarterback Alex Smith to that gruesome season-ending leg injury. Colt McCoy is forced into duty for this game. Washington goes on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. The Skins have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 5 games against NFC East opponents, Washington has played 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: In this rematch of a game that saw only 37 combined points with the Skins having Alex Smith under center, expect a lower-scoring game. 10* NFL Washington-Dallas O/U Fox-TV Special with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-18 |
Bears v. Lions UNDER 45.5 |
|
23-16 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). THE SITUATION: Chicago (7-3) has won four games in a row with their 25-20 win over Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (4-6) snapped their three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-19 upset win over Carolina as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears will be challenged with the shortest turnaround in NFL history after playing the Sunday Night Football game before having to play the Thanksgiving Day kickoff game. The Chicago coaching staff lost almost a full day of recuperation and preparation from the typical team playing on a short week. Don’t be surprised if the Bears’ offense is sluggish to start this game — especially with Chase Daniel getting his first start at quarterback in a Bears uniform given the shoulder injury to Mitchell Trubisky. This is just the third career start for the 10-year veteran — and he has played in just two combined games in the last 2 1/2 seasons. Chicago churned out 24 first downs while controlling the clock for 34:19 minutes against the Vikings on Sunday — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a dominating game where they controlled the clock for at least 34 minutes while generating at least 24 first downs. This is a rematch of the Bears’ 34-22 win over the Lions back on November 11th — and Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least two straight games against divisional rivals. And while the Bears have scored at least 25 points in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games. Chicago’s defense should still play well on short rest and a fresh defensive game plan against the Lions. In their last three games, the Bears are allowing only 17.0 PPG along with just 279.0 total YPG. Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The Bears have also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on field turf — and they have played 5 of the last 7 games Under the Total when playing in a dome. Detroit has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a narrow win at home by no more than a field goal. The Lions have also played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. The Lions’ offense has stalled to a near halt since trading away wide receiver Golden Tate. In their last three games, Detroit is scoring only 17.0 PPG along with managing a mere 274.3 total YPG. To make matters worse for quarterback Matthew Stafford, his second favorite target this season in wide receiver Marvin Jones is also doubtful with a knee injury. But perhaps the biggest injury this offense is dealing with is the knee injury of running back Kerryon Johnson. The rookie had sparked a rushing attack that this Lions team has not benefited from in years. But ever since they rushed for 248 yards as a team in a 32-21 win on the road at Miami, the Lions have not managed more than 94 rushing yards as a team in their last four games. Detroit has then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not rushing for at least 100 yards in four straight games. And while they allowed 331 passing yards last week to the Panthers, the Lions have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The defenses should have the advantage in this early contest given that these two teams just played earlier this month. Both offenses are missing key contributors from that game. Expect a lower scoring game in this rematch. 20* NFL Chicago-Detroit O/U CBS-TV Special with the Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-18 |
Auburn v. Arizona UNDER 152.5 |
Top |
73-57 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (577) and the Arizona Wildcats (578). THE SITUATION: Auburn (4-1) lost in the Semifinals of the Maui Invitational last night by a 78-72 score to Duke as 11-point underdogs. Arizona (4-1) then lost in the Semifinals of this tournament to Gonzaga by a 91-74 score as an 11-point underdog as well.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made only 41.2% of their shots against the Bulldogs. 3-point shooting is an issue for this team as I flagged yesterday in the Report taking Gonzaga. Arizona makes only 30.4% of their 3-point shots which ranks 266th in the nation — and that is exactly what they shot last night by making only 7 of their 23 shots (30.4%) from behind the arc. While this subpar 3-point shooting has been consistent, expect the Wildcats to play better on the defensive end of the court after Gonzaga made 53.1% of their shots. That was Arizona’s worst defensive effort of this young season — but they are still holding their opponents to just a 39.9% field goal percentage for the season. The Wildcats have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing no more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Wildcats’ last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage below 60% — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against teams outside the Pac-12. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, the Under is 3-1-1. Auburn held Duke to a 44.4% field goal percentage which was the worst defensive performance in their last three games. The Tigers rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Bruce Pearl will want his team to commit fewer personal fouls after being whistled for 24 fouls against the Blue Devils. Auburn was called for 23 personal fouls the previous day in their opening round game against Xavier — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after being whistled for at least 22 fouls in two straight games. The Tigers have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral court, the game finished Under the Total 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are playing their third game in three days — so fatigue might be a factor. Both Pearl and Sean Miller want their teams to have their defense serve as the foundation of their team play — so expect intensity on that end of the court to be a priority for both teams in this consolation game. 25* CBB Maui Invitational Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (577) and the Arizona Wildcats (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-18 |
Knicks v. Celtics OVER 216 |
Top |
117-109 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508). THE SITUATION: New York (4-14) has lost six straight games after their 118-114 loss to Portland last night as a 7.5-point underdog. Boston (9-8) has lost two straight games after their 117-112 loss in Charlotte on Monday as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. New York has also played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total when playing without a day of rest. Now the Knicks go back on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to score 117.8 PPG while shooting 48.9% from the field. Over their last five games, New York is seeing their opponents make 50.1% of their shots. The Knicks have played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Boston has suffered two straight upset loss as their upset loss against the Hornets was preceded by a 98-86 loss at home to Utah as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. The Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. Furthermore, Boston has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after enduring two straight upset losses. Now the Celtics return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Boston is a heavy favorite tonight being asked to lay 14 or so points. The Celtics should play well tonight — expect a high scoring game. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-19-18 |
Chiefs v. Rams OVER 62 |
Top |
51-54 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (9-1) has won four straight games with their 26-14 win over Arizona last week as a 16.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (9-1) enters this game coming off a 36-31 win over Seattle last week as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With the oddsmakers installing the total in the 63 range, this is the largest over/under in NFL history. Of course, numbers like this are not uncommon when betting College Football. With the number this high, it seems like the books are begging bettors to take the Under. I am not taking the bait. I see three reasons why this game is going over the number. First, the pace of this game will be fast. Both coaches like to play up-tempo on offense. Neither head coach is very concerned with controlling the time off possession. When both teams are playing fast, that will increase the number of possessions for both teams. Second, both head coaches will play this game aggressively since they both will likely think that they will need to score at least 30 points to win this game. This expectation helps make the Over a self-fulfilling prophecy. Los Angeles has scored at least 33 points in eight of their games while Kansas City has scored at least 30 points in eight of their contests. But Los Angeles has given up 31 points four times including in both of their last two games. Kansas City has allowed at least 27 points in four of their games. Third, since both teams struggle to stop the run, both offenses will have advantageous down-and-distance opportunities on second and third down which will maximize their play-calling flexibility. The Chiefs allow their opponents to average 5.11 Yards-Per-Carry while the Rams allow opposing rushers to average 4.92 Yards-Per-Carry. Second-and-five situations are great for the offense. Los Angeles has played 21 of their last 31 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Lastly, the Chiefs have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: I think both of these teams have already played games that are likely blue prints for how this game will be played out. Kansas City fell behind early but kept pushing the pace before New England outlasted them by a 43-40 score. The Rams were not able to catch up in New Orleans after falling behind in what ended up being a 45-35 final score. With their rule changes in the offseason, this the product that the NFL wants — so don’t be surprised if the referees make some calls that benefit both offenses. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-18 |
Vikings v. Bears UNDER 46 |
Top |
20-25 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (457) and the Chicago Bears (458). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-3-1) takes the field again having won four of their last five games with their 24-9 win over Detroit two weeks ago as a 4.5-point favorite. Chicago (6-3) has won three straight games after their 34-22 win over those same Lions last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago has scored 75 points over their last two games — both that explosion in points was built on a foundation of seven forced turnovers. While the Bears have averaged 33.0 PPG over their last three games, they have only averaged 329.0 total YPG over that span. Mitchell Trubisky did complete 23 of 30 passes for 355 yards against a Lions defense missing their best cover cornerback in Darius Slay — but Chicago has played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The Chicago defense has been outstanding as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 13.7 PPG along with a mere 255.7 total YPG. The Bears surrendered only 76 rushing yards last week to the Lions after giving up just 97 rushing yards the previous week against the Bills. Not only have Chicago then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game but they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not giving up at least 100 rushing yards in two straight games. Even better for this unit is that their star linebacker Khalil Mack is healthy again and will play tonight. The Bears host this game at Soldier Field where they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after their bye week — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Purple People Eater Defense is cranking on all cylinders again with their stud defensive end Everson Griffen back in the mix. Over their last three games, the Vikings are allowing only 18.7 PPG along with just 247.3 total YPG. They should keep it going as they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Minnesota has played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total — including playing four straight Unders when playing in Chicago. Expect another lower scoring game between two teams whose true strengths lie on the defensive side of the football. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (457) and the Chicago Bears (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-18 |
Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 47 |
|
23-22 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (467) and the Los Angeles Chargers (468). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-6) has lost two straight games after their 19-17 loss to Houston two weeks ago despite being a 1-point underdog. Los Angeles (7-2) has won six straight games with their 20-6 win at Oakland last week as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Denver has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a favorite. The Broncos have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a bye week. Case Keenum did pass for 290 yards two weeks ago in a losing effort — but Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Keenum will is dealing with a host of injuries on his offensive line with starters Ronald Leary and Matt Paradis along with backup Max Garcia unavailable for this game. The Broncos go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49.5 point range. Denver has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against AFC West foes. The Chargers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and the Under is also 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Los Angeles is allowing just 14.0 PPG over their last three games while not giving up 20 or more points in five straight games. But the Chargers are only scoring 21.7 PPG over their last three games. They retune home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And while the Chargers have played three straight Unders, they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played five straight games Under the Total when the Chargers are the home team. Expect another low-scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (467) and the Los Angeles Chargers (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-18 |
Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 44 |
Top |
21-24 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (455) and the Baltimore Ravens (456). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-4) has lost three of their last four games after their humiliating 51-14 loss to New Orleans last Sunday as 6-point underdogs. Baltimore (4-5) has lost three straight games with their 23-16 upset loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have been a disaster on defense this season. They are allowing 456.5 total YPG which is not only last in the NFL but on pace to be worst mark ever in NFL history. After surrendering 130 points over their last three games, head coach Marvin Lewis fired defensive coordinator Teryl Austin who was a hot head coaching candidate for next season just a couple of months ago. Lewis will take over the defense which should result in the players being more accountable for their actions on and off the field. Injuries have hurt this unit — but futility of this magnitude indicates that the effort has not been there. Lewis will get some help on that side of the field with the firing of Hue Jackson who will serve as an assistant coach taking Austin’s place. While I know Jackson is a self-promoting clown most of the time, he is also someone with a long history of working with Lewis including serving on the defensive coaching staff with the Bengals after he was sacked from the Raiders. Jackson also brings plenty of perspective on the Ravens with them being a divisional rival. I expect immediate improvement on defense. They allowed 509 yards of offense to the Saints last week — but they have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Under is also 21-10-1 in Cincinnati’s last 32 games after giving up at least 30 points. The offense is limited still with wide receiver A.J. Green out so expect plenty of Joe Mixon and the Bengals rushing attack to keep the clock moving and protect this defense a bit by keeping them off the darn field. Cincinnati has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and this includes four straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Bengals have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the month of November. Baltimore will be starting rookie Lamar Jackson at quarterback with Joe Flacco still nursing a hip injury. I have seen nothing to indicate that Jackson is ready for this assignment yet — unless operating ineffective specialized packages now serves as an endorsement. The Ravens will likely struggle with their passing game with Jackson under center still not polished with that part of his game at the professional level. But the Baltimore defense remains stout as they allow only 16.0 PPG along with a mere 275.0 total YPG when playing at home. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a bye week. Furthermore. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of November — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of their game played back in the idyllic days of mid-September where the Bengals won by a 34-23 score with that Total set at 43. Things have changed. Expect a lower scoring game this time around. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (455) and the Baltimore Ravens (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-18 |
Iowa State v. Texas UNDER 50 |
Top |
10-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (417) and the Texas Longhorns (418). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (6-3) has won five straight games with their 28-14 win over Baylor last week as a 17-point favorite. Texas (7-3) snapped their two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 41-34 win at Texas Tech as a 2-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Quarterback Shane Ehlinger did pass for 312 yards in a winning effort last week — but Texas has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. The Longhorns has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 40 points in their last game. And while Texas allowed 595 yards of offense to the Longhorns last week, they have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Texas returns home to Austin to where they are allowing only 22.0 PPG. The Longhorns have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Texas has also played a decisive 29 of their last 40 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Iowa State has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Cyclones won that game despite gaining only 357 yards of offense in that contest. They did surrender 505 yards to the Bears — but they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Iowa State allows only 20.4 PPG which is 22nd best in the nation — and that number drops to just an 18.7 PPG make when they are playing on the road. But the Cyclones also only score 23.0 PPG on the road while generating a mere 311.2 total YPG. Iowa State has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 17-7 score in Ames last season with that Total set at 62. With this year’s battle back in Austin where these two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total, expect another low scoring game. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (417) and the Texas Longhorns (418). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-15-18 |
Packers v. Seahawks OVER 48.5 |
|
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (307) and the Seattle Seahawks (308). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-5) has lost two straight games after their 36-31 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams on Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Green Bay (4-4-1) enters this game coming off a 31-12 win over an injury-depleted Miami team as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Defense has let the Packers down on the road by allowing 31 points three times and 29 points in their other game away from home. Green Bay’s defense is a depleted group right now with linebacker Nick Perry, cornerback Kevin King, and strong safety Kontrell Brice all declared out for this game. The Packers have played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. Green Bay has also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. The Pack plays this game on a short week for them — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on a Thursday. They also have played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Seattle has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Seahawks did rush for 273 yards against the Rams. Not only have then played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game but they have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. They should continue to have success against this Packers team that has allowed 482 rushing yards over their last four games on a 4.97 Yards-Per-Carry average. Seattle has lost the turnover battle in their last two games — and they have played 35 of their last 52 games Over the Total after having a -1 or worse net turnover margin in at least two straight games. Furthermore, the Seahawks have allowed 7.35 and 7.81 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last two games — and they have then played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Lastly, Seattle has played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying no more than 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: The loser of this game is in deep trouble when it comes to still making the playoffs as a Wildcard team in the NFC. Given that urgency, expect both teams to play aggressively with a sense of desperation — and that should help our Over. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (307) and the Seattle Seahawks (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-18 |
Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 223 |
Top |
117-126 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (721) and the Los Angeles Lakers (722). THE SITUATION: Portland (10-3) has won four straight games with their 100-94 win over Boston on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Los Angeles (7-6) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six games with their 107-106 victory over Atlanta on Sunday as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers improved play can be tied to improved play on the defensive end of the court. Los Angeles has not allowed their last nine opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field while holding their last five opponents to just a 43.1% field goal percentage. The Lakers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is also 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Los Angeles has also played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Lakers stay at home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court — and they have also seen the Under go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. LA has also played 4 straight games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents while the Trail Blazers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Western Conference foes. Portland is also playing hard on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to just a 42.2% field goal percentage — and they are holding their home hosts to just a 42.1% shooting percentage. The Trail Blazers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Portland has also played 5 straight games Under the Total. This team has also played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against a team with a winning record — and they have also played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: This is already the third meeting between these two teams after the Lakers pulled the upset over the Trail Blazers back on November 3rd by a 114-110 score as a 3.5-point favorite that finished well below the 236 point total. This third clash probably favors the respective defenses who can continue to fine-tune their defensive approaches against a familiar opponent. As it is, these two teams have played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing in LA. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (721) and the Los Angeles Lakers (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-18 |
Giants v. 49ers UNDER 46 |
Top |
27-23 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the San Francisco 49ers (276). THE SITUATION: New York (1-7) has lost seven straight games after their 20-13 loss at home to Washington two Sundays ago as a 1-point underdog. San Francisco (2-7) enters this game coming off their 34-3 upset win against Oakland back on November 1st as a 1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers got a surprising performance from Nick Mullens at quarterback who completed 16 of 22 passes for 262 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Look for Mullens to regress a bit in this contest with the Giants having eleven days to study that tape in preparation for this game. As it is, San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where at least 30 points were scored. The 49ers’ defense did a great job by limiting the Raiders’ offense to just 242 yards of offense. San Francisco has an underrated defense that 12th in the NFL by allowing only 351.7 total YPG — and that number drops to just 305.0 total YPG when they are playing at home. The 49ers have allowed only two field goals in the first-half in their last two games — and they have played 27 of their last 39 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first-half of two straight games. Additionally, San Francisco has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total in the month of November. New York has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Giants have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. New York allowed 360 yards of offense to the Redskins — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Giants managed only 303 yards of offense behind the declining Eli Manning at quarterback. His lack of mobility combines with a decrepit offensive line produces a sluggish offense that ranks 27th in the NFL by scoring just 18.8 PPG. New York has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Giants go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Lastly, New York has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total — and they have also played twelve of their last eighteen games Under the Total on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: This game shapes up to see plenty of stalled drives where the offenses will settle for field goals. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the San Francisco 49ers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-18 |
Mavs v. Bulls UNDER 216 |
Top |
103-98 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (707) and the Chicago Bulls (708). THE SITUATION: Dallas (4-8) has won of their last three games with their 111-96 win against Oklahoma City on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. Chicago (4-9) has won two of their last three games as well with their 99-98 win over Cleveland as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks enjoyed their best offensive performance of the season in their win over the Thunder as they shot 55.8% of their shots from the floor. Dallas also limited OKC to just a 39.2% shooting percentage — and that defensive effort should travel on the road tonight. The Mavs have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They will be a short one or two of their key contributors tonight with Wesley Matthews doubtful with a hamstring injury while rookie Luka Doncic is questionable with a knee. Dallas goes on the road where they have played 17 of their last 26 road games Under the Total with the number in the 210 to 219.5 point range. The Mavericks have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Chicago is also undermanned with Bobby Portis, Kris Dunn and Lauri Markkanen all out with injuries. But this team is still playing hard on the defensive end of the court. They limited the Cavaliers to just a 42.9% shooting percentage on Saturday — and that is exactly the same opponent’s field goal percentage that their last five opponents have averaged. The Bulls have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played back on October 22nd with the Mavericks winning that game in Dallas by a 115-109 score. That game fell well below the 229 point total — expect this game to also finish below the number given the injuries both teams have now experienced. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (707) and the Chicago Bulls (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-11-18 |
Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 43.5 |
Top |
27-20 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-5) has lost two straight games after their 28-14 upset loss to Tennessee on Monday where they were laying -4.5-points. Philadelphia (4-4) returns to the field from their bye week after their 24-18 win in Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have won and covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games while also playing 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. Philly went into their bye week having suffered a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after losing the turnover battle in at least two straight games. Playing just their second game of the season against a divisional rival along with having acquired wide receiver Golden Tate at the trade deadline, the reigning Super Bowl champions are feeling pretty good about themselves. Even without Tate, this offense has begun to hum as quarterback Carson Wentz gets more comfortable under center after tearing his ACL last season. The Eagles averaged 7.28 Yards-Per-Play against the Jaguars in their last game — and they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after averaging 6.5 YPP in their last game. Philadelphia has played 26 of their last 37 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against fellow NFC East rivals. Dallas was expected to see an immediate uptick in their offensive production with the acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper but they managed only 297 yards of offense on Monday as the team struggled with keeping their offensive identity with their new offensive weapon. I thought the expectations for the Cowboys offense was overestimated before their game with the Titans — and I suspect it is not being underestimated moving forward. Expect a significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball tonight. Dallas has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns as a home favorite. The loss to Tennessee followed up an upset loss to Washington the previous week — and the Cowboys have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after suffering two straight upset losses. Dallas is going to have to generate their share of points in this game given the injuries they are dealing with on defense. The Cowboys are down two of their players in their defensive line rotation with David Irving and Randy Gregory still out — their absence on Monday played a role in Marcus Mariota having his good game at quarterback. Dallas will also be without their best defensive player in linebacker Sean Lee who is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Cowboys need to get running back Ezekiel Elliot more involved in their offense after they have rushed for just 72 and 73 yards in their last two games after rushing for over 200 yards in their previous game against the Jaguars where they won while scoring 40 points. Dallas has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games. And in their last 18 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points, the Cowboys have played 11 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played three straight Unders with their last contest being that New Year’s Eve game last year where Dallas shutout the Eagles with what looked to be a hapless Nick Folk at quarterback. With Dallas’ season in the balance, expect this to be a high scoring game. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-18 |
Maryland v. Indiana OVER 54.5 |
Top |
32-34 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (145) and the Indiana Hoosiers (146). THE SITUATION: Maryland (5-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-3 loss to Michigan State last week as a 3-point underdog. Indiana (4-5) has lost four games in a row with their 38-31 upset loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It has been feast or famine for the Terrapins on offense this season as they have scored 63 points against Illinois, 42 points against Minnesota and 34 points against Rutgers but managed only a field goal overall against Iowa and the Spartans. Perhaps the three touchdowns that Maryland scored against the mighty Michigan defense is the best line on their offensive resume. The Terrapins caught an angry Sparty last week that was embarrassed by the Wolverines in East Lansing the previous week. But Maryland has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. The Terrapins managed only 100 yards of offense against Michigan State — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to generate at least 275 yards in their last contest and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Now Maryland goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. And in their last 10 road games as an underdog getting no more than a field goal, the Terrapins have played 8 of these games Over the Total. Indiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a bye week. The Hoosiers surrendered 308 passing yards in that game — and the Over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Indiana has scored 59 points over their last two games after they put up 28 points against Penn State. The Hoosiers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are fighting to become bowl eligible — and this level of desperation between mid-level teams can create high-scoring contests. Maryland upset Indiana last year by a 42-39 score as a +6.5-point underdog last season with the Total set in the 53.5 range. Expect another high-scoring affair. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (145) and the Indiana Hoosiers (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-08-18 |
Panthers v. Steelers OVER 50.5 |
Top |
21-52 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (108). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-2) has won three straight games with their 42-28 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Pittsburgh (5-2-1) has won four in a row with their 23-16 upset win at Baltimore last Sunday as a +1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games at home Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Pittsburgh generated 395 yards in that game against the Ravens — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers are 4th in the NFL by averaging 415.2 total YPG — and they are averaging 432.2 total YPG over their last three games. They return home where they are scoring 31.2 PPG — and their four home games are averaging 56.9 combined points scored. Ben Roethlisberger should have a big game against the suspect Panthers’ secondary that his allowing 250.9 passing YPG which ranks 19th in the NFL. Roethlisberger leads an offense that is averaging 313.6 passing YPG — and over his last sixteen starts, Big Ben is averaging 326.2 passing YPG while tossing 39 TD passes. He should have plenty of time to attack the Carolina defense. The Steelers’ offensive line is helping their QB get hit only 8.7% of their passing attempts which is tops in the NFL — and this offense ranks 2nd in the league by seeing their QB get sacked in only 3.1% of their passing attempts. The Panthers are bottom-ten in the league with their 21 team sacks. Pittsburgh has allowed 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total. The Steelers’ strong run defense will likely force Carolina into relying on the arm of Cam Newton. Pittsburgh has not allowed more than 74 rushing yards in each of their last three games. The Steelers have played 28 of their last 36 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in two straight games — and they have played 26 of their last 38 games Over the Total after holding their last three opponents to 75 or fewer rushing yards in at least three straight games. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Panthers have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Additionally, Carolina has played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Panthers scored five touchdowns in the first half against the Buccaneers before going into cruise control and finishing that game with 407 total yards of offense. Carolina has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after generating at least 400 yards in their last contest. Carolina is scoring 33.0 PPG over their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a high-scoring game. Newton only attempted 25 passes last week which was the second-lowest amount all season. He has tossed at least two TD passes in seven straight games. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-18 |
Toledo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
15-38 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (103) and the Northern Illinois Huskies (104). THE SITUATION: Toledo (5-4) has won two straight games with their 45-13 win over Ball State last Wednesday as a 19.5-point favorite. Northern Illinois (6-3) has won five straight games with their 36-26 win at Akron as a 6-point favorite last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets scored one of their touchdowns by recovering a fumble in the end zone — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they generated 531 yards of offense in that game, they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Toledo rushed for 204 yards in that game against the Cardinals last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The team will likely continue to commit to establishing their ground game with junior quarterback Mitchell Guadagni likely out for this game with a shoulder injury. Sophomore Eli Peters will get his third start tonight — but he is struggling in the passing game as he is completing only 53.7% of his passes. Protecting Peters will also be an issue tonight as the Rockets have allowed 21 sacks this season — and the Huskies have compiled 32 QB sacks this season. Toledo has steadily improved on defense as they are allowing only 22.7 PPG over their last three games. They have also held their last three opponents to just 118.7 rushing YPG which is more than 50 YPG below their season average rush defense. The Under is 25-12-1 in the Rockets’ last 38 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the month of November. Northern Illinois generated 484 yards of offense in their win over the Zips — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Now the Huskies return home where they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Northern Illinois has also played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying no more than 7 points. The Huskies are led by their defense that ranks 29th in the nation by allowing only 21.7 PPG. That number drops to just 18.0 PPG when they are playing at home — and they have allowed only 17.7 PPG over their last three games while holding those opponents to just 327.7 total YPG. Northern Illinois thrives in stopping the run as they rank 13th in the nation by allowing only 103.8 rushing YPG. The Huskies limited Akron to just 35 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. But this Northern Illinois team struggles to create offensive as they rank 123rd in the FBS by scoring 19.2 PPG while also ranking 125th in the nation by generating only 309.4 total YPG. Only 139.1 of those yards come from their passing game which ranks 121st in the nation — yet they are only averaging 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry from their rushing attack. Playing at home has not helped this offense either as they are scoring only 18.0 PPG along with just 304.0 total YPG. The Huskies have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of November — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against MAC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and the Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 encounters between these two teams when playing at Northern Illinois. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams that face significant albeit different challenges on offense. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (103) and the Northern Illinois Huskies (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-05-18 |
Titans v. Cowboys UNDER 41 |
|
28-14 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-4) has lost three straight games with their 20-19 loss in London two Sundays ago against the Chargers as a +6.5-point underdog. Dallas (3-4) looks to rebound from their 20-19 loss in Washington two weeks ago as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Tennessee generated 390 yards against the Chargers’ defense, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Titans are stagnant on offense as they average just 15.1 PPG along with only 280.9 total YPG with both those marks ranking 30th in the league. The formula for success for Mike Vrabel’s team is to ground-and-pound and rely on their defense to keep them in games. Tennessee holds their opponents to just 18.1 PPG which is the third-best mark in the league. They also signed a fullback in Ralston Fowler during their bye week which is a strong indicator that they are doubling-down on running the football. This approach helps them with the time of possession battle — they controlled the clock for over 35 minutes in their game against the Chargers. Moving forward, the Titans have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have a strong defense of their own that holds their opponents to only 17.6 PPG which is the best mark in the NFL. It will be difficult for Tennessee to run against this defense that is 9th in the league by holding their opponents to just 96.3 rushing YPG. Dallas only managed 73 rushing yards in their loss to the Skins in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. The team hopes that the addition of Amari Cooper will jumpstart the offense by going them a legit number one wide receiver — but Cooper has underperformed over the last two seasons in Oakland has been more effective playing in the slot for the Raiders. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Lastly, Dallas has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the second half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: This sets up to be a low-scoring game between two teams with strong defenses who want to run the ball. Even with the low Total, except this contest to finish below the number. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-18 |
Packers v. Patriots OVER 56 |
|
17-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (471) and the New England Patriots (472). THE SITUATION: New England (6-2) has won five straight games with their 25-6 win at Buffalo on Monday as a -13.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-3-1) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-27 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams last week as a +7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Green Bay has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, while the Packers gave up 416 yards of offense to the Rams, they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they have played 12 of their last 14 road games after a straight-up loss where they still covered the point spread as an underdog. Furthermore, Green Bay has played a decisive 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Packers have also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog. And in their last 24 road games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less, Green Bay has played 19 of these games Over the Total. Additionally, the Packers have played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing on field turf that tends to reward speed. Green Bay has scored 60 points over their last two games — and they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in each of their last two games. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing on a short week after a game on Monday Night Football. Furthermore, the Patriots have generated at least 381 yards of offense in five straight games — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in four straight games. They return home where they have played 25 of their last 33 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is averaging 42 pass attempts to just 19 rushing attempts in their three road games this season. If the Packers ask Rodgers to pass on at least 69% of their plays on offense as those numbers suggest, this shapes up to be a game with plenty of possessions which will give both these offenses that average 25.0 PPG and 29.9 PPG respectively plenty of chances to put points on the board. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (471) and the New England Patriots (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-18 |
Jets v. Dolphins OVER 41 |
|
6-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Jets (459) and the Miami Dolphins (460). THE SITUATION: New York (3-5) has lost two straight games after their 24-10 loss in Chicago as an +8.5-point underdog. Miami (4-4) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five games with their 42-23 loss at Houston two Thursdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jets have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. New York managed only 207 yards of offense in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. The Jets have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to gain more than 14 points in their last game. New York will be looking to avenge a 20-12 upset loss to the Dolphins back on September 16th where they were 3-point favorites — and they have played 22 of their last 37 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss to their opponent. The Jets should be able to establish a strong ground game against this Dolphins defense that has surrendered 189 and 248 rushing yards in their last two games. Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Texans generated 427 yards last week against this regressing Dolphins defense. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. In their last two games, the Dolphins have surrendered 37 PPG along with 442 total YPG. Miami returns home where they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have also played 12 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Expect this rematch to be a higher scoring game than the first meeting between these two teams that saw only 32 combined points. 20* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Jets (459) and the Miami Dolphins (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-18 |
Hurricanes v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (55) and the Arizona Coyotes (56). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-5-1) has lost two straight games with their 3-2 loss to Boston on Tuesday. Arizona (6-5-0) has won four straight games with their 5-1 win over Ottawa on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Coyotes have scored 27 goals over their last six games which is the most in the NHL during that span — but this scoring brigade includes five goals scored short-handed over their last three games which is not likely to keep going. Arizona’s six short-handed goals this season lead the NHL. The Coyotes have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and this includes them playing nine of their last eleven games on their home ice Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last contest. Additionally, Arizona has also played 13 of their last 19 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. This is also a team that leads the NHL by allowing only 1.91 Goals-Per-Game — and they are even stingier at home where their visitors are allowing only 1.40 Goals-Per-Game. In their four-game winning streak, the Coyotes have allowed only four combined goals. This team is getting outstanding goaltending from Antti Raanta. Last year, Raanta boasted a .930 save percentage along with a 2.24 Goals-Against-Average in forty-four starts in a season cut short by injuries. This year, Raanta has continued this torrid level of play by posting a 1.99 GAA along with a .926 save percentage — and he has been even nastier at home where he owns a 1.51 GAA along with a .940 save percentage. Carolina has failed to score more than two goals five times this season. They are scoring only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests — but they are allowing only 2.4 Goals-Per-Game over that span. They have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Hurricanes go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Carolina has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after playing three straight games at home. They will likely turn to Petr Mrazek between the pipes who has a good 2.05 GAA in his three starts on the road this year with a solid .917 save percentage. Moving forward, the Hurricanes have played 9 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 encounters Under the Total when playing in Phoenix. Expect the Coyotes’ stinginess to continue in this game in what should be a low-scoring game. 25* NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (55) and the Arizona Coyotes (56). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-18 |
Raiders v. 49ers UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
3-34 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: Oakland (1-6) has lost three straight games with their 42-28 loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a +3.5-point underdog. San Francisco (1-7) has lost six straight games with their 18-15 upset loss at Arizona last Sunday as a -2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders have lost three straight games by double-digits with that loss to the Colts. Oakland has played 32 of their last 46 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home including playing five of their last six games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points at home. The Raiders have also played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total after suffering at least two straight double-digit losses. Oakland needs to play better on defense after surrendering 461 yards to Indianapolis. The Raiders have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 305 yards in their last games — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after giving up at least 30 points in their last game. Oakland will likely try to establish the run to help keep their defense off the field — the Raiders only had the ball for 23:30 minutes last week. This offense is down two of their top weapons from the beginning of the season with wide receiver Amari Cooper traded to the Cowboys and running back Marshawn Lynch placed on Injured Reserve with a groin injury. Doug Martin will be the main running back for the Raiders despite his averaging below 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in the last two seasons playing in Tampa Bay. Oakland goes back on the road where they are scoring only 13.0 PPG while averaging just 320.2 total YPG. The Raiders have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road. San Francisco has played 23 of their last 40 games Under the Total after losing on the road to a divisional rival. They managed just 267 yards of offense against a not-so-great Arizona defense while blowing a 15-3 fourth-quarter lead. The 49ers are dealing with a host of injuries on that side of the ball with the most significant being to quarterback C.J. Beathard. The backup to Jimmy Garoppolo is dealing with an injured wrist to his throwing hand which leaves him 50-50 to play tonight as of this afternoon’s updates — so this looks like one of those situations where even if he plays, he will not be close to 100%. The third-stringer at QB in Nick Mullens who has yet to take a snap in a regular season game. The Niners are also dealing with injuries at running back with both Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert listed as questionable with injuries. Both are expected to play tonight — but the nagging high ankle sprain to Breida has kept him under 75 yards of rushing in five straight games. This won’t likely stop head coach Kyle Shanahan from trying to run the football as his team has attempted at least 30 rushes in three of their last four games — and they rank 6th in the NFL by averaging 133.6 rushing YPG. The 49ers should have some success in moving the chains against the Raiders defense that is last in the NFL by surrendering 144.7 rushing YPG. Yet San Francisco only scores 19.3 PPG when they are playing at home. Their defense does hold their opponents to just 326.0 total YPG when playing at home in Levi Stadium. Moving forward, the 49ers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the month of November — and they have also played 8 of their last 11 games on a Thursday night Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: With both these teams struggling to move the ball on offense, expect these two teams hungry for a win attempt to win this game on the line of scrimmage. On the short week for both these teams, expect both coaches to look to go back to basics with the hopes of grinding out a win. That is a formula for a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-18 |
Temple v. Central Florida UNDER 62 |
Top |
40-52 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Temple Owls (313) and the Central Florida Knights (314). THE SITUATION: Temple (5-3) has won three straight games with their 24-17 win in overtime versus an undefeated Cincinnati team back on October 20th by a 24-17 score as a -2.5-point favorite. Central Florida (7-0) looks to extend their 20-game winning streak coming off their 37-10 win at East Carolina back on October 20th as a -21.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knights may receive most of their attention because they hold the nation’s longest winning streak in the nation. Their offense also gets plenty of attention since it ranks 5th in the nation in scoring (44.4 PPG) and 6th in the nation in total offense (537.1 total YPG). But the Central Florida defense is not getting enough credit as that unit also ranks 5th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 18.1. PPG. And back on their home field, the Knights see that number drop to just 17.5 PPG — and they are limiting their visitors to just 324.0 total YPG. Central Florida has played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. Additionally, the Knights have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Furthermore, Central Florida has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a bye week. Their starting quarterback McKenzie Milton is listed as questionable with head coach Josh Heupel indicating he will be a game-time decision after missing their last game with the Pirates with an ankle injury. Redshirt freshman Darriel Mack struggled to pass the ball in his absence as he only accounted for 69 passing yards — but it looks like Milton will be cleared to play in this game tonight. Regardless, look for the Knights to commit to running the football as they rank 7th in the FBS by averaging 261 rushing YPG. UCF generated 316 yards on the ground without Milton under center which helped them outrush East Carolina by +226 yards. The Knights have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after outrushing their last opponent by at least +200 yards. Temple rushed for only 80 yards while giving the Bearcats their first loss of the season. They were without their star rusher, Ryquell Armstead, in that game — and he is questionable for this contest still with his ankle injury. Second-year head coach Geoff Collins is getting outstanding play out of his defense that has steadily improved this season much like last year. The Owls rank 23rd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 330.5 total YPG — and that number actually drops to a 300.7 total YPG mark when they are playing on the road. Over their last three games, Temple is holding their opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 263.7 total YPG. This strong play should continue as they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games. That game with Cincinnati finished Under the 47 point total, the Owls have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total following a game that finished Under the Total — and they have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. On offense, Temple is getting gritty but spotty play from their sophomore quarterback Anthony Russo who won the starting gig earlier this season but is completing only 56.5% of his passes while sporting a subpar 9:10 touchdown to interception ratio. The Owls will lean heavily on their outstanding pass defense that is 18th in the FBS with 24 sacks which has helped them rank 4th in the nation overall by allowing only 147.5 passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Because Milton has practiced this week, the Total has shot up to the 60 range after opening in the 56.6 range. Temple’s formula for defeating their second straight unbeaten opponent will be to slow down their offense and grind out a lower-scoring game. While the Owls may not have enough offensive firepower to pull out the upset, except their defense to keep them competitive while avoiding a shootout. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Temple Owls (313) and the Central Florida Knights (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-29-18 |
Patriots v. Bills OVER 44 |
|
25-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (275) and the Buffalo Bills (276). THE SITUATION: New England (5-2) has won four straight games with their 38-31 win over the Bears in Chicago last Sunday as a 1-point favorite. Buffalo (2-5) has lost two straight games with their 37-5 loss to Indianapolis as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 39 of their last 58 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored including seeing the Over in five of their last six games after a contest where at least 60 combined points were reached. The New England offense is clicking on all cylinders right now as they have scored at least 38 points in four straight games. The Patriots have then played a decisive 51 of their last 74 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Patriots have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight contests. But while New England is scoring 30.6 PPG, they are concerns with their defense that is allowing 25.6 PPG — and that number rises to 29.6 PPG they are giving up along with 449.3 total YPG to their home hosts. The Bears racked up 453 yards against the Patriots last week — and New England has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Patriots have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Buffalo has not scored more than 13 points in five of their last seven games — and they will be using a guy at quarterback who was sitting on his couch out of the league only a few weeks ago. Those are scary propositions for the Over. But be wary of expecting another low-scoring game from a team that has paid off five straight Under tickets. I expect Derek Anderson to be better at quarterback tonight than he was last week against the Colts where he completed 20 of 31 passes for 175 yards but threw three interceptions. Anderson will have LeSean McCoy at running back tonight as he has been cleared from the concussion protocol — and that will help as the Patriots are allowing 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry. If the Bills can reach their 16.5 PPG scoring average at home, then that should be enough to secure our Over bet. Buffalo has played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total on their home field — and they have also played 10 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Bills gave up 220 rushing yards to the Colts last week — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. And in their last 10 appearances on Monday Night Football, the game finished Over the Total 7 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 encounters in Buffalo Over the Total. I am not sure how the Bills will score in this game — and perhaps Anderson and Nathan Peterman will throw a bunch more interceptions tonight. One way or another, expect this game to finish Over the Total. 25* NFL AFC East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (275) and the Buffalo Bills (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-18 |
Saints v. Vikings UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
30-20 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-1) won their fifth straight game last week with their 24-23 win in Baltimore last week as a +2.5-point underdog. Minnesota (4-2-1) has won three straight games with their 37-17 win in New York against the Jets last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five contests. New Orleans has also played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less. Expect the Saints to once again focus on their ground game to win the Time of Possession battle which keeps their defense fresh while keeping a good offense off their home field. That was the formula for success last week against the Ravens as they ran the ball 39 times for 134 yards which helped them control Time of Possession for 33:31 minutes. New Orleans is also playing outstanding run defense as they are holding their opponents to just 2.87 Yards-Per-Carry while leading the league by allowing only 108 rushing YPG. The Saints have not allowed more than 77 rushing yards in four straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. Their pass defense received a boost this week with the acquisition of cornerback Eli Apple — I expect him to get some time on the field in this game in obvious passing situations despite just joining the team. New Orleans stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The Saints have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of October. Minnesota has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Additionally, the Vikings have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Mike Zimmer’s team has stepped up their play on the defensive side of the football. Over their last three games, they are holding their opponents to just 18.3 PPG along with just 298.7 total YPG. This unit is also the top 3rd down in the NFL — and they will be getting a boost in this game with their elite defensive end Everson Griffen cleared to play again by the team after dealing with some off-the-field issues. The Vikings offense is undermanned with running back Delvin Cook out with a hamstring and left tackle Riley Reiff also out with a foot injury. Minnesota is only scoring 19.0 PPG on their home field while averaging 348.7 total YPG which is more than 30 yards below their season average. But their visitors are averaging just 296.0 total YPG. The Vikings have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 6 of the last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And while the Minnesota offense exploded for 37 points last week, they have then played a decisive 36 of their last 52 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points — and this includes them playing seven of their last eight games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points. The Vikings had only 316 yards of offense in that win over the Jets but benefited from a +4 net turnover margin. Minnesota has then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least a +2 net turnover margin. And in their last 12 games as an underdog, the Vikings have played 8 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: While it might be tempting to think these two teams with potent passing attacks will get into a shootout, this shapes up to be a game where both teams will be looking to keep the other team’s offense off the field. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-18 |
Red Sox v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-102 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Clayton Kershaw. THE SITUATION: Boston (118-57) seized a 3-1 lead in the World Series last night with their come-from-behind 9-6 victory over the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have now played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. And while Boston has just a .219 batting average over their last five games in these playoffs, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a five-game span where they did not have better than a .225 batting average clip. This team is still scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs even after that recent slide. They give the ball to Price who was 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in thirty regular season starts. The left-hander was much better at home in Fenway Park where he had a 2.98 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 — but those numbers spike to a 4.31 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .249 when pitching on the road. Price also had a 3.89 ERA in his twenty-one regular season starts at night. Additionally, many of Price’s notorious struggles in the playoffs have been on the road given his career 6.02 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273. Los Angeles (100-78) had their bullpen surrender 8 runs in just three innings of work after that group logged-in eleven innings in Friday night’s 18 inning marathon. The Dodgers have played 22 of their last 36 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. Los Angeles has also now played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against American League teams with a winning record. They counter with their ace Kershaw who only pitched 4 innings while giving up 5 earned runs in his Game One start against the Red Sox in the World Series. The lefty has a 4.60 ERA in the playoffs in his career — and the Dodgers have played 7 of their last 11 games in the playoffs Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: With the Dodgers playing with desperation — but also a tired bullpen — expect another high-scoring game. Price is pitching on short rest — and the Boston bullpen will be looking forward to (at least) one day off tomorrow. 25* MLB Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-18 |
NC State v. Syracuse UNDER 66 |
Top |
41-51 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (125) and the Syracuse Orange (126). THE SITUATION: NC State (5-1) suffered their first loss of the season last week with their 41-7 loss at Clemson as an +18.5-point underdog. Syracuse (5-2) enters this game coming off a 40-37 win in overtime over North Carolina as a -9.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wolfpack have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points in their last game. NC State managed only 297 yards of offense against the Tigers in that game — and they have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Wolfpack are scoring 28.7 PPG this season — but the number drops to just 22.0 PPG in their two games on the road so far this year. NC State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on the road. The Wolfpack did allow 471 yards to Clemson in that first loss of the season — but not only have they then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game while also seeing the Under go 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. NC State does have a good defense that ranks 31st in the nation by allowing 20.8 PPG. Syracuse has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also seen the Under go 9-2-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread setback. The Orange did generate 546 yards of offense in that game that needed overtime to resolve — but they have then see the Under go 12-4-1 in their last 17 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Syracuse allowed 500 yards to the Tar Heels in that contest as well — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Orange stay at home where they are making it difficult for opponents to move the football. Syracuse is allowing only 18.7 PPG in four contests at home. The Under is 11-3-1 in the Orange’s last 15 games home — and this includes the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: This Total has risen to the high-60s in large part because of the fast pace that this Syracuse engages in under head coach Dino Babers’s up-tempo system. But the Wolfpack head coach Dave Doreen will be well aware of this dynamic and look to slow the game down when his team has the football. NC State won last year’s meeting with the Orange by a 33-25 score which fell well below the 62.5 total. That was the 5th game finish Under the Total in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. 25* CFB ACC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (125) and the Syracuse Orange (126). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-18 |
Red Sox v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (905) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Boston (117-56) seized a 2-0 lead in the World Series on Wednesday with their 4-2 victory over the Dodgers. The series moves to Los Angeles for potentially three-weekend games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles (99-77) has seen the Under go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a loss — and they have also played 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and the Dodgers have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against National League teams with a winning record. The Under is also 8-1-2 in LA’s last 11 home games in the playoffs. They send out Buehler who was 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in twenty-two starts in the regular season. The rookie right-hander has been very tough at home where he sported a 2.12 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .184 in eleven home starts. The Under is 11-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 13 home games with Buehler on the hill. Los Angeles has also played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with Buehler pitching and favored with at least a -150 price. Boston has seen the Under go 13-5-2 in their last 20 games against an opponent that did not score more than two runs in their last game. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 games in Interleague play — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the World Series. They give the ball to Porcello who was 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three regular season starts. The right-hander saw his ERA improve to a 3.86 mark in eighteen starts. The Red Sox have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Porcello facing a team with a winning record. Porcello is making his first start since October 17th — and Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when Porcello is starting with at least eight days of rest between starts. Much has been made about the Dodgers now getting to get their trio of left-handed batters in Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Joc Pederson into the lineup now that the Red Sox are not sending a left-handed starting pitcher out on the hill. While those three sluggers combined to club 85 home runs this season, Los Angeles is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers this season with a .249 batting average along with a .326 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .757 which are numbers not significantly better than their 4.8 Runs-Per-Game scoring margin for the season along with a .248 batting average, .327 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .749. The Under is 4-0-2 in the Dodgers’ last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With this game being played in the National League park, there will not be a designated hitter in either lineup. That is a small factor that will help this game finish below the number. 10* MLB Boston-LA Dodgers Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (905) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (906) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-18 |
Dolphins v. Texans UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
23-42 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (103) and the Houston Texans (104). THE SITUATION: Miami (4-3) has lost three of their last four games with their 32-21 loss to Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Monday. Houston (4-3) has won four straight games with their 20-7 upset win at Jacksonville last week as a +3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins have turned to Brock Osweiler at quarterback with Ryan Tannehill dealing with a shoulder injury. Osweiler was outstanding in his first start against the Bears where he led an offense that tallied 541 yards while averaging 7.21 Yards-Per-Play. The Miami offense slowed down last week against the Lions by generating 322 yards while averaging 6.44 YPP. The Dolphins have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after gaining at least 6.0 YPP in each of their last two games. Osweiler faces his toughest challenge yet against his former team with the Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien and his defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel likely licking their chops to get after their former quarterback who was an utter flop after signing a big contract with them. Osweiler will also be limited tonight with his wide receiving unit being a M*A*S*H unit right now with DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson all out for this game. After playing their last two games at home, the Dolphins go on the road where they are scoring 14.5 PPG while averaging just 242.0 total YPG. Miami has played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, the Dolphins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. Furthermore, Miami is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a short-week Thursday game. Houston has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Texans won that game despite generating only 272 yards of offense with quarterback DeShaun Watson completing just 12 of 24 passes for 139 passing yards. The second-year pro is clearly not at 100% as he deals with a collapsed lung and broken rib. These injuries have limited his dual-threat capabilities as he has rushed for only 15 yards in his last two games. O’Brien wants his team grinding out low-scoring games as his team has not scored above 22 points more than once this year. The Texans have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to pass for more than 150 yards in their last game under O’Brien. The Houston defense is playing quite well as they have only 12.0 PPG along with just 260.0 total YPG over their last three games. The Texans held the Jaguars to only 70 rushing yards on 22 carries — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. With Miami’s depleted wide receiving corps, they will commit to running the football — but they will go against a Houston defense that is holding opposing rushers to just 3.35 Yards-Per-Carry. The Dolphins have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams wants a higher scoring game — especially when both of these teams are playing on a short week. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (103) and the Houston Texans (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-18 |
Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern UNDER 50.5 |
|
14-34 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Appalachian State Mountaineers (109) and the Georgia Southern (110). THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (5-1) has won five straight games with their 27-17 win over UL-Lafayette on Saturday by a 27-17 score as a -24.5-point favorite. Georgia Southern (6-1) has won four games in a row themselves after their 48-31 win at New Mexico State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a double-digit win over a conference rival from the Sun Belt. They generated 258 yards on the ground in that win over the Ragin’s Cajuns — and they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Appalachian State churns time off the clock which helps their outstanding defense stay fresh. The Mountaineers rank 8th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 294.8 total YPG — and they also rank 11th in the FBS by limiting their opponents to just 15.7 PPG. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Appalachian State has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games played on a Thursday night, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Georgia Southern has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win —an they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This team has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. The Eagles gained 389 rushing yards in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. This team will certainly look to run the ball again tonight to keep the Mountaineers’ offense the field. Georgia Southern is only allowing 19.3 PPG which ranks 24th in the nation. They return home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday night.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight meetings Under the Total after Appalachian State won last year’s battle by a 27-6 score. Expect another lower-scoring game. 10* CFB Appalachian State-Georgia Southern ESPNU O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Appalachian State Mountaineers (109) and the Georgia Southern (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-18 |
Dodgers v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Boston Red Sox (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jun Ryu and David Price. THE SITUATION: Boston (116-56) won Game One of the World Series last night by an 8-4 score over the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have now won five straight games in these playoffs — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after winning at least five straight games. Boston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory. Additionally, the Over is 9-1-2 in their last 12 games home in Fenway Park — and they have also played 16 of their last 25 home games Over the Total when the Total is set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They turn to Price tonight who was outstanding last Thursday when he helped the Red Sox close out the ALCS in Houston by pitching six scoreless innings in the win. But while Price’s postseason struggles were perhaps a bit overblown, he still has underachieved in the playoffs when compared to his regular season performances given his 5.04 ERA in 85 2/3 innings of work which includes a 5.11 ERA this postseason even after last Friday’s strong effort. Price had a 3.58 ERA in thirty regular season starts but he did see his ERA rise to a 3.90 mark in his twenty-one starts at night. Boston has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total with Price pitching after a start where he did not allow more than one earned run — and they have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with Price following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. He faces this Dodgers’ team that has now seen the Over go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles (99-76) has also now played 7 of their last road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Over is also 5-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 7 games in Interleague play. And in their last 16 games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range, Los Angeles has played 11 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Ryu who was 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in fifteen regular season starts. But the left-hander was not nearly as effective on the road where he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.58 and 1.23 marks. Ryu was hit hard for seven hits and five earned runs in his last start which was in Milwaukee last Friday where he did only pitch 3 innings. He faces this Red Sox team tonight that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and this is Ryu’s first ever start in Fenway Park with its menacing Green Monster an inviting target for right-handed batters. The Over is 8-1-2 in Boston’s last 11 home games in their last 11 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is also 34-16-2 in their last games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers will be playing with desperation in this game after losing last night and not wanting to return to LA down 0-2 in this series. The Total was a run lower at 7.5 yesterday with the Clayton Kershaw-Chris Sale showdown — yet expect another higher-scoring game between these two left-handed starting pitchers in Fenway Park. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Boston Red Sox (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jun Ryu and David Price. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-18 |
Dodgers v. Red Sox OVER 7.5 |
|
4-8 |
Win
|
110 |
5 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (901) and the Boston Red Sox (902) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale. THE SITUATION: Boston (115-56) reached the World Series by disposing of the Astros in just five games with their 4-1 victory in Houston last Thursday. Los Angeles (99-75) survived a seven-game series with the Brewers with their 5-1 victory in Milwaukee on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 27 of their last 40 games Over the Total after a victory by at least four runs. Los Angeles has also seen the Over go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They stay on the road to start the World Series where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Dodgers have also played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They give the ball to Kershaw who is 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in twenty-six starts in the regular season. The left-hander has not been quite as effective when pitching away from Dodgers Stadium given his 2.90 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in thirteen road starts during the regular season as compared to his 2.58 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 at home. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Kershaw facing a team with a winning record. Kershaw saw his ERA rise to a 3.89 mark in the month of September where he allowed eight earned runs in two disappointing starts — and he has a similar 3.86 ERA in his four postseason appearances along with a 1.29 WHIP. Kershaw did allow only one earned run in 7 innings of work in his last start in Game Five of the NLCS — but the Dodgers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when Kershaw is following a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. He faces a Red Sox team that has seen the Over go 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is also 33-16-2 in their last 51 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Boston is also scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. The Over is 35-16-2 in their last 53 games after an off-day — and the Over is also 13-3-2 in their last 18 opening games to a new series. The Red Sox host the first two games in the World Series at Fenway Park where the Over is 8-1-2 in their last 11 games — and the Over is also 17-7-4 in their last 28 home games in the playoffs. They counter with Sale who is 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in twenty-seven starts in the regular season. The left-hander has not been quite as effective at home where he has a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .202 in twelve starts as compared to his microscopic 0.77 WHIP and .166 opponent’s batting average on the road. Sale also sees his ERA rise to a 2.32 ERA in eighteen starts at night. Sale has underperformed in the playoffs as well. He has a 4.70 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP in two starts in this postseason while owning a 6.75 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP in five career playoff appearances. The Over is 3-0-2 in the Red Sox’s last 5 home games with Sale on the mound — and Boston has played 13 of their last 20 home games Over the Total with Sale pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 7.5 range. The Red Sox have also played 4 straight games Over the Total with Sale facing a team with a winning record. Lastly, he faces a Dodgers team that has played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: This will be Kershaw’s first start at Fenway Park in his career. Two left-handed starting pitchers in Fenway Park with the Green Monster lurching in left-field? And both starting pitchers have a history of underachieving in the postseason? Let’s take the Over in this opening game. 10* MLB LA Dodgers-Boston Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (901) and the Boston Red Sox (902) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-23-18 |
Troy v. South Alabama UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
38-17 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (101) and the South Alabama Jaguars (102). THE SITUATION: Troy (5-2) enters this game coming off their 22-16 upset loss at Liberty back on October 13th as a 12-point favorite. South Alabama (2-5) looks to build off their 45-7 win over Alabama State as a 27.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. This team had a hole to fill at quarterback in the offseason with the graduation of a four-year starter in Brandon Silvers. Junior Kaleb Barker was the top quarterback on the depth chart — but he has suffered a season-ending ACL injury. That leaves head coach Neal Brown to should between sophomore Sawyer Smith and freshman Gunner Watson who have played against the Flames but combined to pass for just 160 yards. Troy has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to pass for at least 170 yards in their last game. This team had to replace their top two running backs from last year in Jordan Chunn and Josh Anderson — top in line was junior Jamarius Henderson who averaged 7.9 Yards-Per-Carry last year but he has suspended indefinitely this season. That is a lot of attrition of offensive talent — and while the Trojans are scoring 33.7 PPG while averaging 413.6 total YPG, those numbers drop to 25.0 PPG along with just 338.3 total YPG in their three games on the road. Troy does hold their home hosts to just 22.7 PPG. The Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games on the road — and this includes them playing four of their last five road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the Trojans have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total in the month of October — and the Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games in October overall. South Alabama has also experienced attrition at the quarterback position this season. The losses started in the spring when Dallas Davis left the program two days before the Spring Game. The senior had been the team’s starter in the previous two seasons. Fellow senior Cole Garvin was indefinitely suspended in mid-September leaving the team in the hands of senior Evan Orth who is leading an offense that is 113th in the nation by averaging just 343.0 total YPG. The Jaguars have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a bye week. South Alabama has held their three visiting teams to just 22.7 PPG along with only 343.7 total YPG. The Jaguars defense has not forced a turnover in their last two games — but they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where they did not force a turnover while also playing 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not forcing at least one turnover in each of their last two games. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in South Alabama’s last 8 games in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. With both teams dealing with less than ideal quarterback situations and both coaching staffs having extra time to scheme and prepare for these respective offenses, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (101) and the South Alabama Jaguars (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-22-18 |
Giants v. Falcons OVER 52 |
|
20-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (475) and the Atlanta Falcons (476). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) takes the field again after an embarrassing 34-13 loss at home to Philadelphia as a +1.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on national television. Atlanta (2-4) survived a 34-29 victory at home last Sunday against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Atlanta has played five straight Overs in a row — and while I considered the Under as a contrarian play, expecting another higher-scoring game is the sound choice tonight. The Over is 16-5-1 in the Falcons’ last 22 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The injuries on defense have simply decimated that unit for Atlanta — they rank second-to-last in the league by allowing 32.0 PPG while ranking 30th in the NFL by giving up 417.2 total YPG. Additionally, the Falcons rank last in the NFL by giving up 24 touchdowns so far this season — and they are last in the NFL by allowing their opponents to convert on 56.2% of their third downs so Eli Manning should have a good game tonight. As the injuries have mounted, Atlanta has allowed 35.0 PPG over their last four contests. The Falcons stay at home this week where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Over is 11-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 13 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 7 games on Monday Night Football, the Falcons have played 5 of these games Over the Total. New York (1-5) has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns — and they have also played 45 of their last 77 games Over the Total after a loss to a fellow NFC East rival. The Giants have also played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss this season. this team gets an important piece back on offense in tight end Evan Engram who has been out with a knee injury. His presence on the field should help Manning while opening things up for Odell Beckham Jr. and their rookie running back Saquon Barkley. The Giants passing game has not been bad with Manning under center — they rank 13th in the league by averaging 260.8 passing YPG. But New York is scoring only 19.5 PPG which is 27th in the NFL. Engram should really help their Red Zone offense. But defense remains a big problem for this team as they are allowing 27.0 PPG. Their lack of a pass rush will afford Matt Ryan plenty of time to find open targets — and two his preferred weapons (and complements to Julio Jones) in rookie Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu who have upgraded to probable for tonight’s game. The Giants have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: While we were robbed of our Over last night in the Cincinnati-Kansas City game on Sunday Night Football, it would be foolish to react to that result with a knee-jerk Under. These high totals in the 50s don’t need much to finish below the number. But both of these defenses are struggling — and both of these offenses are primed to have good games. I will not be surprised if the Falcon score 30 points again which should put the Over in a good situation. 10* NFL NY Giants-Atlanta O/U ESPN Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (475) and the Atlanta Falcons (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-22-18 |
Leicester v. Arsenal OVER 3 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (2501) and Arsenal (2502). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (6-0-2) takes the pitch again in English Premier League play after the international break that they went in on with a 5-1 victory over Fulham back on October 7th. Leicester City (4-0-4) went into the two-week international break on a 2-1 loss at home to Everton on October 6th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Arsenal is one of the hottest teams in the EPL. They are looking for their tenth straight victory in all competitions as well as their seventh straight win in EPL play. The Gunners are clicking under first-year coach Unai Emery’s high-pressing, counter-attack system that creates scoring opportunities. Arsenal has scored 19 goals this season for a crisp 2.38 Goals-Per-Game scoring average. Part of the improved success for this team has certainly been because of a favorable turn of the schedule. The Gunners opened their EPL season with a difficult road against Manchester City and then Chelsea. Their six EPL matches since have been against teams outside the traditional top-six franchises (like Leicester City). In those matches, Arsenal has scored 17 goals while finding the back of the net at least twice in all those contests. The other factor that has jumpstarted this group is Emery’s decision to play Alexandre Lacazette at forward at the same time with striker Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang. These two have developed a nice chemistry between them to form a dangerous combination of scoring threats. They each scored twice in that match against Fulham. But Emery’s high-pressing style risks making the back-line vulnerable to attack — and quality defensemen is a weakness of this team. Leicester City scores goals — they have 14 goals this season while scoring in all eight of their matches. Jamie Vardy remains one of the best strikers in all of the EPL after his star-making season in 2015-15 when he led the Foxes to the surprising EPL title. Leicester City also has found a spark plug to jumpstart their offense with midfielder James Maddison who they signed in the summer transfer period from Norwich City. Vardy has three goals with one assist this season despite a slow start to the season after helping England’s run to the Semifinals at the World Cup — and then he missed another two matches after receiving a Red Card suspension. Maddison has three goals with two assists from his midfield position. But the Foxes’ defense too often is leaky as they have allowed 12 goals this season — including 9 goals in their last five matches for a concurring 1.80 Goals-Allowed mark. Their defense will be shorthanded for this match with their captain Wes Morgan unavailable after he was issued a Red Card in that match with the Toffees two weeks ago.
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City has played two top-six opponents this season with both ending in 2-1 losses to Liverpool and Manchester United. It seems that the Gunners scoring twice and the Foxes scoring once is the baseline for this match — so let’s take our (good) chances that a fourth goal will be scored in this one this afternoon. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (2501) and Arsenal (2502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-18 |
Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 56 |
|
10-45 |
Loss |
-106 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (463) and the Kansas City Chiefs (464). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 28-21 upset loss to Pittsburgh last week as a -1.5-point favorite. Kansas City (5-1) looks to rebound as well from their narrow 43-40 loss at New England last Sunday night as +3.5-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Cincinnati has played their last two games Under the Total which might make the Under a tempting proposition tonight with the Total in the high-50s — but the Bengals have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. Cincinnati has also played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total in the month of October. The Bengals are putting up plenty of points as they are ninth in the NFL by scoring 29.0 PPG — and that number rises to them scoring 30.7 rushing YPG on the road. But Cincinnati is also surrendering 30.0 PPG when playing away from home. The Bengals have played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Bengals have played 5 of these games Over the Total. Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Led by QB Patrick Mahomes, this Andy Reid offense has opened up for them to be scoring 35.8 PPG this season. The Chiefs generated 446 yards last week against the Patriots while averaging 8.42 Yards-Per-Play — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.5 YPP. However, injuries on defense with Eric Berry not having taken the field and now Justin Houston out with a hamstring issue have contributed to them allowing 28.7 PPG which is the sixth most in the NFL. But Kansas City allowed a whopping 510 yards to New England in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least 500 yards in their last game. Tom Brady passed for 327 yards in that contest a week after (the now benched for utter futility) Blake Bortles passed for 401 yards the previous week against this Chiefs defense. Kansas City has played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing at least 300 passing yards in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Betting totals involves anticipating the likely pace and tempo of the game in question. This is a high total in the 50s — but the Chiefs’ opponents are averaging 45 passing attempts per game which is the most in the NFL. These passing attempts produce bigger yardage plays as well as more stopped clocks which helps to create more scoring opportunities. Expect a high scoring game. 10* NFL Cincinnati-Kansas City O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (463) and the Kansas City Chiefs (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-18 |
Dodgers v. Brewers OVER 7 |
|
5-1 |
Loss |
-124 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) and the Milwaukee Brewers (962) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Jhoulys Chacin. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (102-70) forced a climactic seventh game of the National League Championship Series with their 7-2 victory over the Dodgers last night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles (98-75) has seen the Over go 5-1-3 in their last 9 games when facing an opponent that did not allow more than two runs in their last game — and the Over is also 3-1-3 in their last 7 games against an opponent that scored at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers have also played 6 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games on the road in the playoffs. They put their faith in their rookie right-hander Buehler who has enjoyed a fantastic season with 7-5 record with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. But Buehler has been exposed in his last two starts in these playoffs as he has allowed nine earned runs over 12 innings of work. Buehler has not been as effective on the road either where his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.45 and 1.12 marks. LA has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Buehler pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Milwaukee (102-70) has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. The Brewers give the ball to Chacin in this climatic game who was 15-8 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-four starts in the regular season. The right-hander was not as effective at home where he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.79 and 1.30 marks in thirteen starts. The Brewers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Chacin facing a team that did not score more than two runs in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The three games played in Milwaukee have seen a combined 27 runs scored in this series — with a seven runs being the minimum combined score in those three contests. This series saw lower scoring games when they were being played in Los Angeles in twilight games where the setting sun created sight line problems for the batters. With the pressure of the decisive seventh game of this series tonight weighing on the pitching for both teams, expect another higher-scoring game. 10* MLB LA Dodgers-Milwaukee O/U Special with Los Angeles Dodgers (961) and the Milwaukee Brewers (962) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Jhoulys Chacin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-18 |
North Texas v. UAB UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
21-29 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (385) and the UAB Blazers (386). THE SITUATION: North Texas (6-1) has won two straight games coming off their 30-7 win over Southern Mississippi last Saturday as 7-point favorites. UAB (5-1) has won four in a row with their 42-0 shutout win at Rice last week as 17-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blazers are playing outstanding defense — they have allowed only 14 combined points over their last three games. They held the Owls to just 186 yards last week — and they should continue their strong play on the defensive side of the football. UAB has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win of at least three touchdowns against a Conference USA rival. Now this team returns home where they are holding their guests to just 10.3 PPG along with only 265.3 total YPG. The Blazers have played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home field. Additionally, UAB has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total in the month of October. And while the Blazers put up 42 points last week, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. North Texas has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Mean Green also play stout defense as they rank 19th in the FBS by allowing only 17.6 PPG — and that number drops to just 16.0 PPG when they are playing on the road. UNT thrives in stopping the run as they rank 7th in the nation by allowing just 97.0 rushing YPG. They have allowed only 104 and 50 rushing yards respectively in each of their last two games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, the Mean Green have played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Toal after winning two straight games — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Lastly, UNT has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The number is posted in the low-50s for this game given the strong offenses both these teams have along with the memory of the 46-43 barn-burner between these two teams last season with the Mean Green pulled out. Both of these defenses are much improved this season — expect a lower scoring game. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (385) and the UAB Blazers (386). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-18 |
Dodgers v. Brewers OVER 7.5 |
|
2-7 |
Win
|
109 |
4 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Milwaukee Brewers (958) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Wade Miley. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (98-74) took a 3-2 lead in the National League Championship Series on Wednesday with their 5-2 victory over the Brewers in the fifth game of this series. This series returns to Milwaukee for sixth and potential seventh game of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have seen the Over go 5-2-3 in their last 10 games after allowing two runs or less in the last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games in the playoffs. They give the ball to Ryu who did not last 5 innings in Game Two of this series where he allowed two runs and six hits. While the left-hander had a 7-3 record with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP during the regular season, he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.58 and 1.20 marks in his six starts on the road. And while he had a microscopic 1.02 ERA at home, that mark rose to a 2.23 ERA in his twelve starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Ryu pitching after a victory. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 13 of their last 19 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Milwaukee (101-70) has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 4-1-1 in the Brewers’ last 6 games against an opponent that did not allow more than two runs in their last game. And while Milwaukee has not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. They counter with Miley who is 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in sixteen regular season starts. The left-hander has not been quite as effective at home where he sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 2.67 and 1.35 marks in seven starts — and his opponent’s batting average at home was a subpar .270 at home. The Brewers have played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total with Miley on the mound — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games with Miley pitching after a loss. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The first two games of this series saw eleven and seven combined runs scored. With this being a potential elimination game, expect a higher scoring game than the three previous games played in Los Angeles. 10* MLB LA Dodgers-Milwaukee O/U FS1-TV Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Milwaukee Brewers (958) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Wade Miley. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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