At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (291) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (1-0) opened their season with a 24-3 win against Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 30-7 loss to San Francisco as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cleveland was impressive at home against the Bengals as they held them to just 142 total yards of offense. This Browns defense has the potential to be special with the addition of defensive end Za’Darius Smith in a trade with Minnesota who gives them a legitimate pass rush threat to complement Myles Garrett (replacing JaDeveon Clowney who perpetually disappointed in that role the last few seasons). The team also brought in former Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator after successful previous stints with the Tennessee Titans and Philadelphia Eagles. But quarterback Deshaun Watson continued to lack the spark he demonstrated in his time at Houston — he completed only 16 of 29 passes for just 154 yards. The growing concern with Watson is that the year and a half away from football due to his injury and then suspension has zapped the juice that was his x-factor in making him a special player. The Cleveland offense is dealing with some injuries themselves. Right tackle Jack Conklin is out the season with a torn ACL and MCL — and the Browns offensive line unit is dealing with some other guys that are banged up. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is questionable with a groin — and his absence would leave them without a reliable number-one target since Donovan Peoples-Jones and Elijah Moore have not taken advantage of their past opportunities. Cleveland has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win at home by three or more touchdowns. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than six points in their last contest. They held Joe Burrow to just 67 passing yards in that game — and they have played 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 passing yards in their last contest. But after generating only 144 net yards in their own passing attack, the Browns have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh only generated 239 total yards last week against the 49ers — and now the offense will be without wide receiver Diontae Johnson who is feeling with a hamstring injury. The Steelers have played 5 straight Unders after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss by 21 or more points. Additionally, Pittsburgh has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Steelers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. Head coach Mike Tomlin should have his defense ready to play despite the injury to defensive end Cam Hayward. They will miss Heyward on their defensive line — but they have depth with their defensive ends. Remember, this group was much better with a healthy T.J. Watt. Pittsburgh ranked tenth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.4 Points-Per-Game. They have played 12 of their last 18 home games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 5 straight Unders in the opening two weeks of the new season.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC North rivals — and Cleveland has also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (291) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (287) and the New England Patriots (288). THE SITUATION: Miami (1-0) won their opening game of the season with a 36-34 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 25-10 loss at home against Philadelphia as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami comes into this game banged up on their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and Robert Jones dealing with injuries. While Brandon Staley’s Chargers defense did not do much to challenge their offensive line last week with Tua Tagovailoa untouched in the picket all game, that is not likely to be the case against this stout Patriots pass rush led by linebacker Matthew Judon. After his 15.5 sacks last season, he entered the season with 28 sacks in his 34 career games wearing a New England uniform. The Dolphins have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Miami stays on the road for the second straight week as they travel across the country to the northeast from southern California — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 35 points in their last contest. The Dolphins have also played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory as an underdog. Miami generated 536 total yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining 400 or more yards in their last contest. And while they overcame a -2 net turnover margin last week, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. New England did a great job of containing the stout Eagles offense last week by holding them to just 251 total yards — and seven of Philly’s points came off a 70-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Look for head coach Bill Belichick to have a much better defensive strategy for their divisional rivals this week. What is so frustrating about Staley is that his defense bottled up Tagovailoa last season by pressing their wide receivers on the line of scrimmage and then taking away the middle of the field. While Staley abandoned that plan last week perhaps playing (and losing) a three-dimensional chess game no one else was playing, look for Belichick to take that approach and adjust his personnel while engaging in a rope-a-dope scheme that encourages the Dolphins to run the football. The Patriots have held Tyreek Hill to less than 100 receiving yards in five straight games. But New England has their own injury issues on the offensive line with starters Trent Brown and Cole Strange along with rookie Sidy Cow all questionable and free agent tackle Riley Reiff on the four-week injured list. The Patriots have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 5 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored — and New England has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (287) and the New England Patriots (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (199) and the Clemson Tigers (200). THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (1-1) looks to rebound from their 17-10 upset loss to Ohio as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Clemson (1-1) bounced back from their opening week loss to Duke with a 66-17 victory against Charleston Southern as a 52-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers' defense is probably a bit underrated right now after their prime-time loss to the Blue Devils a few weeks ago. They may have the best defensive line unit in the nation with defensive tackles Tyler Davis and Luke Orhorhor along with defensive end Xavier Thomas leading the way after bypassing the NFL last year. They only allowed 73 total yards last week. And despite Riley Leonard being lauded as a future NFL quarterback, they held Duke to only 175 passing yards. The problem for Clemson in that game was they had three separate first-and-goal opportunities but came away with zero points in all three of those drives. Sophomore quarterback Cade Klubnik still has much to prove despite passing for 315 yards last week. Both teams scored defensive touchdowns in that game which pushed the final combined score up. The Tigers have played 26 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 31 of their last 43 games Under the Total after scoring 50 or more points in their last contest. They have yet to cover the point spread this season — and they have played 22 of their 32 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They stay at home where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-52 point range. FAU only managed 185 total yards last week in their loss to the Bobcats. Seven of their points were scored on a 72-yard interception return for a touchdown.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (189) and the Mississippi Rebels (190). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (1-1) registered their first win of the season in a 48-13 win against South Carolina State as a 45-point favorite last Saturday. Mississippi (2-0) remained unbeaten with their 37-20 win at Tulane as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yellow Jackets have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road against an SEC opponent — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog listed in the 10.5-21 point range. They face an Ole Miss team that may get caught looking ahead to their showdown with Alabama next week. The Rebels only gained 363 yards with just 18 first downs in their victory against the Green Wave. They have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while head coach Lane Kiffin’s team has scored 110 combined points after putting up 73 points against Mercer, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. The Rebels have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Solid technical play with this one despite the total being in the low-60s. Ole Miss has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range — and Georgia Tech has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. The Rebels shut out the Yellow Jackets by a 41-0 score last season. 8* CFB Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (189) and the Mississippi Rebels (190). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (159) and the Oklahoma State Cowboys (160). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (1-1) earned their first victory of the season with a 35-17 victory against Southeast Louisiana as a 21.5-point favorite last Saturday. Oklahoma State (2-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 27-15 win at Arizona State as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars consider themselves a live dog in this game with 18 starters back from their group that finished 10-3 last season. They have a veteran quarterback under center in senior Carter Bradley who passed for 3326 yards last year. They opened their season with a 37-17 loss against a good Tulane team where five turnovers held them back on offense. They generated 509 total yards last week despite injuries to running back Braylon McReynolds and wide receiver Devin Voisin. Third-year head coach Kane Wommack has developed depth on that side of the ball for offensive coordinator Major Applewhite who does like to deploy 12 personnel with two pass-catching tight ends on the field. Senior running back La’Damian Webb looked good recovering from an injury by rushing for 79 yards with two touchdowns on seven carries — he looks ready for a heavier workload. Sophomore Kentral Bullock added 82 rushing yards on 14 carries. The wide receiving corps has depth including several tight ends — I like the matchup against the Cowboys who deploy a 3-3-5 scheme to counter all the Air Raid offenses in the Big 12. South Alabama should be able to run the ball out of 12 personnel while getting their tight ends involved in the passing game against the smaller Oklahoma State defensive backs. The Cowboys rank just 81st in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and they rank 83rd in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate Allowed. Oklahoma State also ranks 116th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 119th in Line Yards Allowed which means their revamped defensive line that did not return a starter is getting pushed around. The Jaguars allowed only 62 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. The Cowboys will probably struggle to run the football against this South Alabama defense that ranks 11th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — but they are vulnerable against the pass. The Jaguars rank 130th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed which should entice Oklahoma State to rely on their passing attack (which will lengthen the time of the game). Head coach Mike Gundy is still rotating three quarterbacks to evaluate who should be his starter — but look for former Texas Tech and Michigan QB Alex Bowman to get more of the snaps tonight after completing 11 of 16 passes for 113 yards last week. Injuries have held him back — but he threw for 2638 yards with 17 touchdowns as a freshman for the Red Raiders way back in 2018. The boxscore against Arizona State suggests the Cowboys defense played better than the eye test watching that game — the Sun Devils were topped on downs four times in that game. Arizona State also lost two starting offensive linemen to injuries. Oklahoma State's defense ranked 114th in the nation last year by allowing 435.7 total Yards-Per-Game. They have played 29 of their last 41 games Over the Total at home after a win on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 27 home games Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. They have also played 49 of their last 68 home games Over the Total after a point spread win.                                   

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 39 of their last 59 games at home Over the Toal in the first half of the season. South Alabama has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road. 10* CFB Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (159) and the Oklahoma State Cowboys (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Greene and David Peterson. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (76-72) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 8-2 loss at Detroit on Thursday. New York (68-78) has won three games in a row after their 11-1 win against Arizona yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Reds have palled 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing eight or more runs in their last game. They have also played 24 of their last 34 games Under the Total after a loss by six or more runs. Their relievers were responsible for allowing seven of those runs — but they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed five or more runs. Greene gets the ball with his 4-6 record along with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in  18 starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.92 and 4.15 moving forward. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.57 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in 11 starts as opposed to his 5.94 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in seven starts at home. New York has played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after scoring eight or more runs in their last game — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring nine or more runs in their last contest. the Mets stay at home where they have played 44 of their last 70 games Under the Total — and they have played 32 of their last 50 games at home Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. They counter with Peterson who has a 3-8 record with a 5.34 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in 24 games with 18 starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.08 and 3.76 moving forward. He has thrived at home where he owns a 3.18 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in 45 1/3 innings as compared to his 7.35 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .327 in 49 innings on the road.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams winning 51% to 54% of their games. 8* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Greene and David Peterson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (103) and the Philadelphia Eagles (104). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-1) opened their season with a 20-17 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) comes off a 25-10 win at New England as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings got upset by the Buccaneers despite outgaining them by +127 next yards. Minnesota passed the ball in 75.9% of their non-kicking snaps on offense with Kirk Cousins completing 33 of 44 passes for 344 yards. The Vikings may have lost any semblance of balance on offense given the decision to release running back Dalvin Cook in the offseason. After averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry last season as Cook’s backup, Alexander Pattison only rushed for 34 yards on 11 carries last week with Minnesota only running the ball 17 times overall for a mere 41 yards. Given injuries on their offensive line, it may be even more difficult for the Vikings to establish a credible running game. Center Garrett Bradbury is out for this game with a back injury while left tackle Christian Darrisaw is questionable with an ankle injury. This looks like a heavy pass script coming from head coach Kevin O’Connell who calls the plays. Don’t be surprised if Kirk Cousins throws 50 passes tonight against a depleted Eagles secondary that is missing cornerback James Bradbury to the concussion protocol and safety Reed Blankenship to a rib injury. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after passing for 300 or more yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Vikings have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They go on the road on the short week where they have played 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 5 straight Overs as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Philadelphia ranked second in total defense last season by allowing only 301.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but I considered that unit overrated going into the Super Bowl which was one of the reasons we were Kansas City and the Over in that game. The Eagles benefited from a soft schedule and some fortunate breaks regarding injuries to opposing quarterbacks. They beat a 49ers team lacking a quarterback that could throw a forward pass in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. They caught Dallas without Dak Prescott for a game. They beat the New York Giants with Daniel Jones three times. The best quarterback that they may have beaten all season was Trevor Lawrence — or maybe Jared Goff — and both those games against Jacksonville and Detroit were in the first half of the season before both those teams made big second-half improvements. Now this Philly defense lost five starters in the offseason even before the injuries in the secondary mentioned earlier — and they will also be without middle linebacker Nakobe Dean leaving that unit thin while defensive tackle Fletcher Cox is questionable. The Eagles gave up 382 total yards to the Patriots last week. But Philadelphia should play better on offense after only gaining 251 yards last week. The Eagles ranked third in the NFL by scoring 28.1 PPG and generating 389.1 total YPG — and their offense should be just as good this season given their continuity at wide receiver and the offensive line to help out quarterback Jalen Hurts. The Minnesota defense was second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 388.7 total YPG — and they let several veterans go in the offseason as they test out the younger players in their rebuild on the fly. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5-49-point range — and they have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played last season with the Eagles winning at home by a  24-7 score on September 19th. That final score was misleading as the Vikings got inside the Philadelphia 27-yard line four times — and then twice inside their 10-yard line — but failed to score a single point on those four drives. If Minnesota scores more from those drives, the game script changes with Philly likely scoring in the 30s. Expect a higher-scoring game in this rematch. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (103) and the Philadelphia Eagles (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (927) and the Baltimore Orioles (928) listing both starting pitchers Drew Rom and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (64-81) has won three of their last five games after their 5-2 victory on the road against the Orioles in the second game of this series. Baltimore (91-53) has lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. St. Louis has also played 9 of their last 14 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced at +150 or higher. Rom gets his fifth career start after posting a 0-2 record with a 7.79 ERA and a 2.02 WHIP in his first four starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he is earning those ugly numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 6.80 and 6.22 moving forward. In his three starts on the road, Rom is saddled with an 8.53 ERA with a 2.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .357. He faces an Orioles team that crushes left-handed pitching. Baltimore ranks seventh and eighth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created against left-handed pitchers — and they rank second in those categories this month. The Orioles have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after failing to score more than four runs in their last game. They have still played 4 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 30 of their last 51 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They counter with Gibson who has a 14-8 record with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 29 starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 5.69 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in 12 starts as compared to his 4.74 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in 17 starts on the road. Baltimore has played 20 of their last 24 games Over the Total at home in September with Gibson on the mound.

FINAL TAKE: St. Louis ranks fifth and eighth in MLB this season on the road against right-handed pitching in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created — and they rank sixth in those categories since May 1st. 8* MLB Wednesday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (927) and the Baltimore Orioles (928) listing both starting pitchers Drew Rom and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (925) and the San Francisco Giants (926) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Kyle Harrison. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (69-77) has snapped a three-game losing streak after their 3-1 victory on the road against the Giants in the second game of this series. San Francisco (74-71) was on a four-game winning streak before that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They managed only four base hits in the victory — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where they had less than five base hits. Cleveland has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have played 28 of their last 40 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in three straight games — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing four straight games where they did not score more than four runs. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. Allen gets the ball with his 7-7 record along with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander remains steady in the second half of the season with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in his last seven starts since the beginning of August. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.36 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.98 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in 11 starts at home. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Allen their starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. Allen has thrived in day games as well with a 2.63 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in seven starts as compared to his 4.18 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .269 in  15 starts at night. He faces a Giants team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .240 batting average, a .300 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .682. San Francisco ranks 27th and 23rd in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they fall to 29th and 28th in the league in those categories since July 1st. The Giants have played 23 of their last 34 home games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They are only scoring 4.0 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have played 31 of their last 46 home games Under the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. They counter with Harrison who has a 1-1 record with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in his first four starts at the MLB level. The rookie has not allowed more than three earned runs in three of his four starts — he gave up six runs in San Diego in the outlier. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.66 and 3.93 moving forward. In his two starts at home, Harrison has a 2.38 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .190.  He faces a slumping Guardians team that is scoring 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .298 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .616 during that span. Against left-handed pitching, Cleveland is scoring only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game with a .242 batting average, a .302 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .677. The Guardians rank 26th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching — and they remain 25th and 26th in MLB since August 1st in those categories.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home to their opponent. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (925) and the San Francisco Giants (926) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Kyle Harrison. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New York  Jets (482). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (0-0) comes off a 14-4 season which ended in a 27-10 loss at Cincinnati in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New York (0-0) finished 7-10 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo looks poised to lean on their running game more this season with the acquisition of running backs Damien Harris and Latavius Murray. The Bills have lacked the ability to sustain a four-minute offense when they need to protect a lead in the fourth quarter. With Harris coming over from New England and Murray being signed from Denver, Buffalo now has two bigger running backs to use in a power running game. Look for offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to attempt to establish a power-rushing attack behind their solid offensive line against the stout Jets defense. The Bills' defense should be outstanding once again this season. They ranked second in the NFL by allowing only 17.9 Points-Per-Game last season. Buffalo has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. Additionally, the Bills have played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when favored. And in their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total. New York hopes to improve an offense that ranked only 29th in the NFL by scoring 17.4 PPG. Aaron Rodgers is now under center — but I am not expecting him to light up the scoreboard after not getting much playing time in the preseason. The Jets are shaky with their offensive line — especially at right tackle with Mekhi Becton. They did sign Dalvin Cook as a free agent — I look for New York to lean on their rushing attack in this contest along with their outstanding defense. The Jets ranked fourth in the NFL last season by holding their opponents to 18.6 PPG and 311.4 total Yards-Per-Game. New York has played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the first month of the season — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the first half of the season.   The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in September. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New York  Jets (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (479) and the New York Giants (480). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) kicks off their season coming off a 13-6 campaign after their 19-12 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New York (0-0) comes off a 10-8-1 season after their 38-7 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Divisional playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have injury issues on their offensive line. Second-year left tackle Tyler Smith is doubtful with an ankle injury. Veteran right tackle Tyron Smith is questionable with his chronic hamstring issues. That spells trouble for what Dallas wants to do on offense. Tyler Smith was their first-round pick from Tulsa last year who replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle with his skills declining (along with being injured all the time). Moving Tyron Smith to left tackle may not be optimal — even if he can play tonight. Quarterback Dak Prescott has lost a step or two with his mobility so keeping a stable pocket is more than important than ever for the Cowboys’ success on offense. As it is, Dallas looks to run the ball a bit more this year with head coach Mike McCarthy taking over the play-calling for the now-departed Kellen Moore. The new offensive coordinator is Brian Schottenheimer who is comfortable overseeing a run-first offense. The Cowboys will lean on their outstanding defense ranked fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 20.1 Points-Per-Game. Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total when favored. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Giants’ running back has scored only three touchdowns in the eight games that he has played against the Cowboys. While most of the attention to New York in the second seasons under head coach Brian Daboll goes to Daniel Jones and the potential (or limitations) of their offense), I expect a leap in play from their defense under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. Second-year linebacker Kayvan Thibodeaux looks poised for a breakout season in becoming one of the better pass rushers in the league. Nose tackle Dexter Lawrence is a load patrolling the middle of the defensive line. Their run defense was a problem last year after allowing their opponents to generate 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, ranking 27th in the NFL — but signing defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson addresses that problem as he thrives in stopping the run. The Giants added rookies to their defensive backfield — and first-rounder Deonte Banks from Maryland is a great fit for Martindale’s system given his size and speed. Martindale loves to blitz — and that could be trouble for the injured Cowboys offensive line and Prescott. New York has played 11 of their last 15 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. The Giants have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (479) and the New York Giants (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (469) and the Chicago Bears (470). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) begins the post-Aaron Rodgers era coming off an 8-9 season. Chicago (0-0) looks to improve on their 3-14 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jordan Love era begins for the Packers as he makes his second career start this afternoon. He is probably not going to continue the outstanding legacy that Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers have established with this organization in the last three decades — Hall of Fame quarterbacks do not grow on trees. But while I think he can develop into a solid NFL quarterback, he probably still needs some time to develop after only taking 157 snaps in his three seasons in the NFL. Even if head coach Matt LaFleur wanted to “Let Love Cook” in this opening game, injuries at wide receiver would have probably changed that plan. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson is out with a hamstring injury and second-year wide receiver Romeo Doubs is questionable with a hamstring. The remaining depth chart in the wide receiver room are rookies. Expect a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon in the running game this afternoon. I have a suspicion that an aggressive rushing attack is what LaFleur would have preferred anyways even with Rodgers as his quarterback the last few seasons. The Bears ranked second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 157.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game last season. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. Chicago certainly wants to pass the ball more after ranking last in the league by averaging only 130.5 passing YPG last season. Acquiring wide receiver D.J. Moore when they traded down in the draft with Carolina gives third-year quarterback Justin Fields the number one wide receiver he has lacked. But I do not expect second-year head coach Matt Eberflus to abandon his defensive roots in game-planning for this contest. The Bears defense dealt with several injuries in the preseason so cohesion is a concern. Look for Chicago to focus on their ground game with Khalil Herbert and free agent signee D’Onta Foreman. Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 5 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first month of the season — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Toal in the opening two weeks of the season.  Don’t be surprised if this game is over by 7 PM ET/4 PM PT despite the late start — both teams are going to run the ball and burn clock. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (469) and the Chicago Bears (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (457) and the Cleveland Browns (458). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-0) comes off a 14-5 season that ended in a 23-20 loss at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. Cleveland (0-0) missed the playoffs with a 7-10 record last year.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns expect to become a top-ten defense this season after making some significant investments on that side of the ball in the offseason. To shore up a run defense that allowed 135.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game last season, they signed 325-lb defensive tackle Calvin Tomlinson to control the middle of their defensive line. They added free safety Juan Thornhill from Kansas City to bolster an already good defensive backfield that ranked fifth in the NFL by allowing only 20 touchdown passes last season. And they replaced defensive coordinator Joe Woods with former Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz who has an excellent reputation as a defensive coordinator with his time in Tennessee and Philadelphia. Schwartz joins a group that knows the Bengals very well as a divisional rival. Cleveland has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents. Cincinnati has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against AFC rivals. Quarterback Joe Burrow got back on the practice field this week after missing most of the preseason due to a calf injury. Remember that Burrow started slowly last season after missing most of training camp to another injury — he threw four interceptions and took seven sacks in a 23-20 loss in overtime to Pittsburgh. The Bengals open this season on the road where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Cincinnati has also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total in September.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (457) and the Cleveland Browns (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-0) comes off a 9-8 campaign last year where they missed the playoffs. Kansas City (0-0) returns to action as the reigning Super Bowl champions after their 38-35 victory against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs scored 29.2 Points-Per-Game in the regular season while generating 414.1 total Yards-Per-Game — but those offensive numbers actually declined when they were playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas scored only 25.1 PPG and averaged 395.5 YPG in their eight home games in the regular season. In the AFC playoffs, the Chiefs only scored 50 combined points — but their defense also held Jacksonville and Cincinnati to only 20 points apiece in those two games. Kansas City’s defense was underrated when playing at home last season as they held their regular season guests to just 19.4 PPG and 325.5 total YPG. Granted, the Chiefs will miss the departed Frank Clark which makes the Chris Jones holdout more urgent. But don’t forget that this defense thrived in the second half of the season due to the emergence of rookie defensive backs Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Bryan Cook, and Joshua Williams who all played significant roles in their playoff run. Second-year defensive end George Karlaftis is expected to make a big jump in his pass-rushing skills this season. On offense, tight end Travis Kelce is questionable with his bruised knee that he suffered in practice this week. If he is missing, the Chiefs’ red zone offense may particularly struggle since he is Patrick Mahomes' most reliable target. Don’t be surprised if head coach Andy Reid’s game plan is to rely on the running game behind Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire — and that will burn time off the clock. Even if Kelce does play, Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total -- and Kelce was healthy for all those games. Detroit has played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog of less than seven points. Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his at home all season including high-profile shootout losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in September to Philadelphia. At home, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. The Lions’ defense ranked last in total defense last year by allowing 392.4 Yards-Per-Game. With the additions of free agent cornerbacks Cameron Sutton from Denver and C.J. Gardner-Johnson from Philadelphia along with rookie draft picks Brian Branch from Alabama and Jack Campbell from Iowa, the talent level is improved on that side of the ball.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 — and Detroit has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (235) and the Duke Blue Devils (236). THE SITUATION: Clemson (0-0) has 15 starters back from their group that had an 11-3 record after losing to Tennessee by a 31-14 score in the Orange Bowl. Duke (0-0) returns 18 starters from their team that finished 9-4 last season after their 30-13 victory against Central Florida in the Military Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Duke was a good defensive team last year under head coach Mike Elko. They raked 31st in the nation by allowing 22.1 Points-Per-Game. The former Texas A&M and Notre Dame defensive coordinator will have a good scheme in place for Clemson in this season opener — and the Tigers may get off to a rocky start operating a new Air Raid offense going against hostile competition for the first time. And while I do not expect this team to enjoy another +16 net turnover margin, forcing turnovers is a skill — and Duke had 10 interceptions and 16 fumble recoveries for Elko last season. The Blue Devils have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. Clemson has played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when laying 10.5 to 14 points as the favorite. Head coach Dabo Swinney has seen his offense take a step back since Trevor Lawrence graduated two years ago. After averaging only 359.2 total Yards-Per-Game in 2021, they improved that mark to 410.3 total YPG last year — but that was still ranked just 47th in the nation. Swinney seemed to point the finger at D.J. Uiagalelelei as the source of the problem when he benched him for freshman Case Klubnik in the ACC Championship Game. And while Klubnik played well in the 39-10 victory against North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game, he was shaky in the Orange Bowl against a suspect Volunteers defense by throwing two interceptions and failing to execute on numerous occasions in the red zone. Perhaps the person under center is not the problem for this Clemson offense — Uiagelelei looked pretty, pretty, pretty good for his new team yesterday as he completed 20 of 25 passes for 239 yards with five touchdowns (three in the air, two on the ground) and no interceptions in Oregon State’s 42-17 victory against San Jose State. Swinney did bring in Garrett Riley to implement the Air Raid offense he installed as the offensive coordinator for TCU last year. And while Clemson has a great running back in Will Shipley, there may not be the high-quality wide receivers on the roster that are difference makers in the passing attack. The Tigers' defense took a step back last year by giving up 334.3 total YPG — but that may be the floor for what has consistently been one of the best defensive units in the nation under Swinney. The defense remains loaded with blue-chip talent that is destined for the NFL. Clemson has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have played 4 straight Unders in the first two weeks of a new season — and Duke has played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of a new season. 8* CFB Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (235) and the Duke Blue Devils (236). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kent State Golden Flashes (141) and the Central Florida Knights (142). THE SITUATION: Kent State (0-0) returns only four starters from a team that finished 5-7 last season. Central Florida (0-0) has 15 starters back from their group that finished 9-5 after their 30-13 loss to Duke in the Military Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Flashes are completely starting over on offense with former head coach Sean Lewis leaving the program to become the offensive coordinator for Deion Sanders at Colorado. With his departure, the team lost a whopping 25 players in the transfer portal and did not return a single starter on offense. The “Flash Fast” style of play under Lewis is gone — rookie Kenny Burns takes over as the head coach after serving as the running backs coach at Minnesota for the last six seasons. He vows for an offense that he labels as “Kent Grit” — and that probably means running the football. Sophomore Michael Alaimo will be the starting quarterback after not getting on the field much previously for Purdue. The offense will be a work in progress — and they will likely struggle against a Knights defense that has seven starters back from a unit that ranked 45th in the nation by allowing 23.6 Points-Per-Game. The Golden Flashes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road. Central Florida is a five-touchdown favorite in this game for a reason. They have eight starters back from a unit that scored 32.9 PPG last season led by senior quarterback John Rhys Plumlee. But with a big game on the road against Boise State next week, head coach Gus Malzahn will not be looking to run up the score in the fourth quarter. The Knights have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Mid-American Conference opponents. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: Central Florida has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. Kent State has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. 8* CFB Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Kent State Golden Flashes (141) and the Central Florida Knights (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Pfaadt and Ryan Pepiot. THE SITUATION: Arizona (69-64) has lost three of their last four games after their 9-1 loss on the road against the Dodgers last night. Los Angeles (82-49) has won three in a row and six of their last seven with the victory in the second game of this series yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have scored 23 combined runs in their last three games with seven runs or more in each contest — and they have posted a .372 on-base percentage in those three games. Los Angeles has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after scoring seven or more runs in two straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring seven or more runs in three or more games in a row. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after posting a .393 on-base percentage in their last three games. Additionally, the Dodgers have played 30 of their last 40 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Los Angeles has played six straight Overs — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing four or more Overs in a row. Furthermore, the Dodgers have played 36 of their last 55 games Over the Total when favored in the -125 to -175 price range — and they have played 31 of their last 49 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Pepiot gets his first start in an injury-plagued season after pitching nine innings out of the bullpen this month. I don’t put much weight into his 2.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP this year. In his 36 1/3 innings last year with the Dodgers, the right-hander had a 3.47 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP — and the deeper sabermetrics called for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.96 and 5.31. In his 22 1/3 innings in Triple-A this season, while he posted a 3.97 ERA, his xFIP (no SIERA data for the minor leagues) rose to 4.65. He is not expected to pitch more than five innings tonight — and Los Angeles has logged-in 15 combined innings in their last three games. The Dodgers have played 26 of their last 37 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched 13 or more innings in their last three games. Arizona is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .262 batting average, a .349 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .762 which are all marks higher than their season average. The Diamondbacks have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher. They counter with Pfaadt who has a 1-6 record with a 5.91 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. The right-hander has pitched better as of late with only 10 earned runs allowed in his 29 2/3 innings in five starts this month. He is throwing his sweeper more and registering more strikes — but concerns remain because his sweeper is his only effective pitch according to the sabermetrics. His lack of an effective arsenal beyond that one pitch likely imposes a low-ceiling on his potential. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.59 and 4.68 this season. In 61 2/3 innings at Triple-A last year, while he had a 2.63 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, his xFIP rose to a 4.42 mark. And even in his 60 2/3 innings at Triple-A this season, his 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP are betrayed by an xFIP of 4.82. The sabermetrics are consistently suggesting that this is a 4.42 to 4.82 ERA pitcher — and that is an ominous proposition when pitching against a red-hot Dodgers lineup. In his previous start against this team, he allowed four runs in 4 2/3 innings.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .344 batting average, a .415 on-base percentage, and a .987 OPS during that span. The Dodgers rank fifth and fourth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank sixth and fifth in those categories this month. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Pfaadt and Ryan Pepiot. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (951) and the St. Louis Cardinals (952) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Zack Thompson. THE SITUATION: San Diego (62-70) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 4-1 victory on the road against the Cardinals. St. Louis (56-76) has lost four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have scored only four combined runs in their last four games — and they have not scored more than two runs in any of those four games. The Cards have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. They have also played 40 of their last 55 home games Under the Total after failing to score more than three runs in four straight games — and they have played 28 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing three straight games where they did not score more than two runs. And in their last 7 games at home, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. Thompson gets the start tonight with his 3-5 record along with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 35 innings. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.43 and 3.08 moving forward. The left-hander has been getting excellent results since adding a slider/cutter pitch to his arsenal which is generating swinging strikes. Since he debuted the pitch on July 19th, Thompson has a 2.57 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP while striking out 10.7 batters per nine innings. He has been much better at home this season where he has a 1.40 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in 19 1/3 innings as opposed to his 6.89 ERA, a 1.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .313 in 15 2/3 innings on the road. He faces a slumping Padres offense that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .310 on-base percentage, and a .680 OPS during that span. San Diego has 36 of their last 60 games Under the Total after winning their last game — including four of their last six contests. They have also played 29 of their last 46 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Padres have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 36-46% of their games. They counter with Lugo who has a 5-6 record with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts consisting of six-inning efforts apiece. Furthermore, Lugo has held six of his last seven opponents to less than three earned runs — he sports a 3.57 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP during those seven starts with 43 strikeouts in those 40 1/3 innings. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.30 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in ten starts as compared to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in ten starts at home. The Padres have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with Lugo on the hill with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals are scoring only 2.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .169 batting average, a .246 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .530 during that span. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (951) and the St. Louis Cardinals (952) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Zack Thompson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Jared Shuster and Tristan Beck. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (84-44) has won four straight games after their 7-3 victory on the road against the Giants yesterday. San Francisco (66-63) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 31 of their last 49 games on the road Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have not allowed more than three runs in four straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in three or more games in a row — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games. Additionally, in their last 27 games on the road in August, Atlanta has played 19 of these games Over the Total. Shuster gets his tenth start of the season carrying a 4-2 record along with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 6.18 and 6.19 moving forward. And while the left-hander has a 4.10 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in five starts at home, those numbers rise to a 6.27 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 in four starts on the road. He faces a Giants lineup that has a .267 batting average in their last seven games with a .322 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .731 during that span which compares favorably versus their .239 batting average, a .306 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .694 for the season. San Francisco ranks eighth and sixth this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Giants have played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as an underdog. And while the Braves scored 5.8 Runs-Per-Game, San Francisco has played 11 of their last 18 games Over the Total against National League teams scoring 5.0 or more Runs-Per-Game. They counter with Beck who has a 3-2 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 67 1/3 innings. This will be his first start of the season — and the metrics call for regression even before the typical drop in effectiveness when a pitcher attempts to stretch out for more than one inning. His SIERA and xFIP projects an ERA of 4.03 and 4.33 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.33 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .292 in 35 1/3 innings as opposed to his 2.25 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .162 in 32 innings.

FINAL TAKE: The Braves score 5.8 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .273 batting average, a .339 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .502. Atlanta ranks first and second in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created this season on the road against right-handed pitching — and they rank second in both those categories since June. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with  Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Jared Shuster and Tristan Beck. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (133) and the Denver Broncos (134). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-2) has lost their first two preseason games after their 34-17 loss at home to Las Vegas as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Denver (0-2) is winless this preseason after their 21-20 upset loss at San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER TOTAL: Head coach Sean McVay is not likely to play his starters tonight -- especially after these teams just finished two days of rigorous joint practices on Wednesday and Thursday. That means that the Rams' offense will be quarterbacked mostly by rookie Stetson Bennett and journeyman Brett Rypien. Their loss to the Raiders saw a combined 51 points scored — but 14 of those points came from the teams exchanging pick-sixes. Los Angeles is scoring only 17 Points-Per-Game in the preseason while generating only 243.5 total Yards-Per-Game. The Rams’ offensive line is a mess — and that problem permeates all the way down their depth chart on the line. LA’s defense has also been bad by allowing 379.1 YPG — but they should benefit from seeing the Broncos’ playbook twice this week. McVay’s Rams have played 6 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total after a loss in the preseason. They have also played 3 Unders in the three games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog under McVay. Denver head coach Sean Payton has indicated his starters will not play for more than a series (if that) tonight. With wide receiver Jerry Jeudy getting injured in the joint practices, I do not expect many of their starters on offense to take the field. The Broncos are scoring only 18.5 PPG in the preseason while averaging 317.0 YPG. Denver has not covered the point spread in their first two preseason games — and Payton’s teams have played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight preseason games. This will be the Broncos' lone preseason game at home at Empower Stadium at Mile High — and Payton’s teams have played 5 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total after playing their last two preseason games on the road. Furthermore, Payton’s teams have played 7 of their last 10 preseason games at home Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. And while Denver allowed the 49ers to average 6.8 Yards-Per-Play last week, Payton’s teams have played 7 of their last 10 preseason games Under the Total after allowing their previous preseason opponent to average 6.5 or more YPP.

FINAL TAKE: The icing on the cake for this play is that these teams just completed two days of joint practice this week. The Rams' defense had glowing reports afterward — especially on Wednesday. The Broncos defense played significantly better on Thursday. McVay and Payton used those controlled scrimmages as their “dress rehearsal” for the regular season. Expect backups tonight with vanilla schemes in a game filled with players fighting for the final roster spots. In situations like this, the edge goes to the defense since only one mistake by a player on offense can ruin the execution of the play. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (133) and the Denver Broncos (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Massachusetts Minutemen (301) and the New Mexico State Aggies (302). THE SITUATION: Massachusetts (0-0) returns 15 starters from its team that finished 1-11 last season. New Mexico State (0-0) has 13 starters returning from their team that finished 7-6 after beating Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl by a 24-19 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies return nine starters on offense from a group that ranked 108th in the FBS by generating 330.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and head coach Jerry Kill’s team is not going to significantly increase those numbers even if they improve their efficiency since he prefers a run-first ball control attack. New Mexico State scored only 25.5. Points-Per-Game last season in his first year as head coach. The Aggies did win seven of their last nine games — including their victory against the Falcons in the bowl game — with the surge coinciding with Kill turning to Diego Pavia at quarterback. But while they scored at least 45 points in four of those wins, those were against some weak opponents. New Mexico State scored 45 points against a Hawai’i team undergoing a massive rebuild who were one of the worst defensive teams in the FBS. They put up 49 points against a shellshocked Liberty reeling internally from the rumors that their head coach Hugh Freeze was leaving the program for Auburn. They then scored 51 points against FCS-opponent Lamar and then 65 points against Valparaiso who was a late-season replacement for San Jose State who canceled their game after the tragic death of one of their teammates. The Aggies scored less than 25 points in their three other victories — including a 23-13 victory against this UMass team. They then failed to score more than 14 points in their six losses. Pavia is a gamer — but the former junior college transfer completed only 53.2% of his passes last season. New Mexico State’s ball control offense did help their defense hold their opponents to just 336.6 total YPG, ranking 29th in the nation. Five starters return to that unit that was bolstered by the addition of Power-Five transfers in nose tackle Dion Wilson, Jr. from Arizona and linebacker Jamari Buddin from Minnesota. The Aggies return two starters — and add cornerback Keynote Wilson as a transfer from Wyoming  — to a secondary that ranked 16th in the FBS by holding their opponents to just 186.8 passing YPG. Kill’s teams have played 31 of their last 52 games Under the Total when playing at home in his coaching career — and his teams have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. UMass will be debuting former Clemson blue-chipper Taison Phommochanh at quarterback — but he was not able to take the starting job at Georgia Tech either so this ability to transform the Minutemen offense that ranked 130th in the nation by averaging only 12.5 PPG remains in doubt. UMass scored less than 14 points in nine of their 12 games last season. Second-year head coach Don Brown will have no plans to open up the offense anyway — his formula for success is also ball control to help his defense. The former defensive coordinator at Michigan under Jim Harbaugh had his team rank 16th in the nation time of possession last season as the head coach for this program. The Minutemen return eight starters — and 13 of their 18 who played at least 200 snaps — from a defense that ranked 54th in the nation by holding their opponents to 369.6 total YPG. Brown inherited a defense that ranked 125th in the nation by allowing 485.0 total YPG. After their opponents generated +124 YPG above their season average two years ago, Brown was able to get that mark down to just +14 YPG above their offensive YPG average. Brown and defensive coordinator Keith Dudzinski’s unit ranked 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 30.9% conversion rate on third down. UMass also ranked ninth in the FBS by allowing only 175.2 passing YPG — a testament to Brown’s touch as he handles the secondary coaching to infuse his man-to-man cover principles. Solid man-to-man coverage allowed the Minutemen to rank fifth in the nation in blitz rate per dropback. UMass played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Aggies won last year’s game on the road by a 23-13 score at the Minutemen’s McGuirk Alumni Stadium — they gained only 334 total yards but held UMass to just 259 total yards. Both of these coaching staffs will have dedicated plenty of coaching hours to scheme against these offensive attacks that lack originality. Kill’s teams have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season — and New Mexico State played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Minutemen played 5 of their 7 games in the first half of the season Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Massachusetts Minutemen (301) and the New Mexico State Aggies (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (111) and the Tennessee Titans (112). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) leveled their preseason record at 1-1 with a 21-17 upset victory at Green Bay as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Tennessee (1-1) evened their record at 1-1 in the preseason with a 24-16 victory against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams were set to have two days of joint practices this week — but those plans were canceled after the scary incident the Patriots experienced with their rookie Isaiah Bolden who got injured in that game against the Packers which led to that contest being ended early. While head coach Bill Belichick might have been tempted to use this final preseason game to get more work in for quarterback Mac Jones and the first-string offense — especially with those joint scrimmages postponed — the injuries on their offensive line seem to have persuaded Belichick to instead give Jones and the critical first stringers on offense the night off. Left guard Cole Strange and right guard Michael Onwenu are slowed by injuries and will not play tonight as they prepare for the regular season in two weeks. The play of the Patriots offensive line has been shaky without those two starters — and they have serious issues at right tackle. Jones was sacked twice for 20 yards in his limited action last week. Even if Jones takes the field tonight, it will not be for long since Belichick does not want to risk serious injury to his starting quarterback. Bailey Zappe will likely get most of the snaps under center in the first half — he struggled last week by completing only 10 of 22 passes for only 117 yards. Trace McSorley will probably play most of the second half after the Patriots signed him as a free agent in the offseason. He has played in only nine games with one start in his three-year career — and he has completed only 51.6% of his passes in his career with one touchdown pass and five interceptions. Undrafted rookie free agent Malik Cunningham from Louisville may get some snaps in the fourth quarter although he may get moved to wide receiver for the Patriots in the long run. Belichick may have used the joint practices to test their top third down and red zone plays against a friendly rival in his former player Mike Vrbabel — but that is not likely to happen now when the entire league gets the tape. The Patriots have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after an upset win in the preseason. New England has also played 20 of their last 32 road preseason games as an underdog under Belichick — and they have played 17 of their last 26 road games Under the Total in the preseason when getting up to three points as an underdog. The Patriots have only scored 15.0 Points-Per-Game in their two preseason games while generating 204.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but their defense has been solid by holding their opponents to just 302.5 total YPG which has resulted in their opponents scoring 18.5 PPG. The Titans defense has been similarly effective by holding their opponents to 19.5 PPG and 299.5 total YPG. But Tennessee has scored only 20.5 PPG in their two preseason games. Ryan Tannehill may get a series or two tonight according to head coach Vrabel — but considering that he has not played in the preseason since 2019, I do not expect him to play for more than a series or two. The Titans’ backup QB situation is unsettled. Rookie Will Levis will probably play after missing last week’s game with a lower-body injury. The former Kentucky star was just OK in his professional debut two weeks ago against Chicago when he completed 9 of 14 passes for 85 yards — but with an interception. He probably could have used the reps last week against the hostile competition that was the Vikings. Rookies tend to struggle against Belichick even in the preseason when his defenses are not as sophisticated as what they will be in the regular season. Malik Willis played the entire game against Minnesota — and he will probably get time tonight since he is a potential trade target. The Titans’ third-round pick from last season has not met expectations — remember that he was bypassed as the team’s starter late in the season last year for Josh Dobbs who they picked up off the streets the previous in a critical Thursday night game against Jacksonville for their playoff aspirations. Willis has completed 26 of his 42 preseason passes this month for only 274 yards with two interceptions. Tennessee has played 4 of their 6 home preseason games as a favorite Under the Total in the Vrabal era.

FINAL TAKE: The offensive schemes will likely be vanilla between these AFC rivals who could play each other in an early playoff game in January. The Titans have played 3 of their 4 preseason games Under the Total against AFC teams under Vrabel — and New England has played 8 of their 12 preseason games Under the Total in the Belichick era. 25* AFC Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (111) and the Tennessee Titans (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Bradish and J.P. Sears. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (76-47) has won two straight games after their 7-2 victory on the road against the A’s yesterday. Oakland (34-89) has lost seven of their last eight games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning their previous game. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games on the road Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Bradish gets the start with his 7-6 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 20 seats. The deeper sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.02 and 3.82 moving forward. And while the right-hander has a 2.18 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .202, those numbers rise to a 3.97 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .249 in 13 starts on the road. And while Bradish has allowed only two earned runs in his last two starts, Baltimore has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when Bradish is on the hill following up two straight starts where he did not allow more than two earned runs. And while the A’s may be last in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching, they do rise up the table to 18th in weighted On-Base Percentage and 11th in weighted Runs Created since July 1st at home against right-handers. Oakland has lost both games in this series by five or more runs — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by four or more runs. The A’s have also played 31 of their last 54 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs. They have also played 32 of their last 50 games Over the Total after losing four of their last five games. They counter with Sears who has a 2-9 record with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 24 starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.49 and 5.07 moving forward. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.75 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in ten starts as compared to his 3.93 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in 14 starts on the road. The A’s have played 5 straight Overs at home with Sears pitching as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore ranks second in MLB in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching. 8* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Bradish and J.P. Sears. Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez. THE SITUATION: Seattle (67-55) has won four straight games after their 2-0 win on the road against the Astros yesterday. Houston (70-53) had won two games in a row before their loss last night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after shutting out a divisional rival in their last game. Seattle has also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have won all four of these games by two runs or less — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by two runs or less. They have also played 4 straight Unders after winning three games in a row by two runs or less. Granted, Julio Rodriguez is tearing it up right now — he is 13 of 17 in his last three games — so taking an Under against a left-handed starting pitcher gave me pause. But the Mariners have stranded at least 10 baserunners in four straight games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more games in a row where they left 10 or more runners on base. Gilbert gets the ball tonight with his 10-5 record with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.68 and 3.65 moving forward. He has been outstanding since the beginning of July boasting a 3.08 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in his last eight starts with 50 strikeouts in those 49 2/3 innings. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.51 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .232 in 11 starts at home. Houston has played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total after scoring one run or less in their last game. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after getting shutout in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after getting shutout by an AL West rival. Furthermore, the Astros have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing a game where three or fewer combined runs were scored — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where two or fewer combined runs were scored. They counter with Valdez who has a 9-8 record with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 23 starts. The sabermetrics indicate he is meeting expectations given his SIERA and xFIP of 3.57 and 3.29 moving forward. He returns home to Minute Maid Park for the first time since he pitched a no-hitter against Cleveland on August 1st in an effort where he only walked one batter. He has thrived at home where he owns a 2.44 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.43 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in ten starts on the road. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home with Valdez on the mound priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros struggle against home against right-handed pitching -- they rank 25th and 22nd in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against righted handed pitching. And since July 1st, Houston ranks 27th and 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against righted-handed pitching. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Australia (225357) and Sweden (225358) in the consolation third-place match in the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Australia (W3-D2-L1) comes off a 3-1 loss to England in their Semifinal match in this tournament on Wednesday morning. Sweden (W4-D1-L1)      lost to Spain in a 2-1 heartbreaker in their Semifinals match Tuesday morning. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Brisbane Stadium in Brisbane, Australia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Australia will be highly motivated to win this match in front of their rabid home fans who have wildly supported their team in this tournament. While reaching the finals would have capped a magical run, winning the third-place bronze trophy will be very rewarding to manager Tony Gustavsson’s team while representing their best finish in a World Cup, men or women. Gustavsson also has his star player back in the mix with Sam Kerr back on the pitch. After missing most of this World Cup, she returned in the match against England and scored their lone goal in the 63rd minute. Kerr’s supporters can make a compelling case that she is the best women’s player in the world. She jumpstarts a Matildas’ attack that scores 10 goals in their six matches. With Kerr back and the excitement of the home crowd, I expect Australia to play aggressively on the front foot. They scored four times with a potent 2.6 expected goals (xG) mark against a quality Canadian team in the Group Stage that won the Gold Medal in the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. The Matildas generated at least 1.1 xG in all six of their matches in this event. But Australia can leaky with their defense. After Kerr evened the score at 1-1, they then conceded two goals in the next 18 minutes to let that game slip out of their hands. While they had four clean sheets overall, the three goals they let Nigeria score against them illustrates their vulnerability in the back end. Sweden is a team that is comfortable in adapting their tactics to their opponent. They outlasted the United States in the shootout in the Round of 16 after 120 minutes of scoreless play. But after Spain broke the scoreless deadlock in the 81st minute in the Semifinals, they pressed the accelerator to even the score seven minutes later — all before conceding the game-winning goal to La Roja two minutes later. Sweden has generated at least 2.0 xG in four of their six matches including against a very good Japanese side. But they allowed 1.2 xG in four of their six matches — and the US, Japan, and Spain combined to create 4.6 expected goals against them in their three Knockout Stage matches.

FINAL TAKE: Consolation matches tend to be higher-scoring affairs since there is not as much pressure regarding winning or losing the match. Parking the bus in the attempt to grind out a third-place trophy is no fun for anyone. In the eight third-place matches in the Women’s World Cup, five of these contests saw three or more combined goals. Sweden will be playing in their fourth third-place match at a Women’s World Cup — but they have won all three of those matches while scoring a combined nine goals in those contests. Manager Peter Gerhardsson intends to keep his same starting XI — so it will be their A-team facing an energized Australian side. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Women’s World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Australia (225357) and Sweden (225358). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (929) and the San Diego Padres (930) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (74-46) had a three-game winning streak snapped with a 10-3 loss on the road against the Padres last night. San Diego (57-63) ended a three-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by six or more runs. They have also played 35 of their last 54 road games Under the Total when listed as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. Kremer gets the ball tonight with his 11-4 record along with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 24 starts. The right-hander has been more outstanding in his two starts this month as he boasts a 2.92 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .182 in 11 innings. Kremer has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.70 ERA in 10 starts as compared to his 5.09 ERA in 14 starts at home. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total with Kremer on the hill as a  money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. He faces a Padres team that has disappointed by ranking 17th and 19th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. San Diego has played 33 of their last 54 games Under the Total after a win this season — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a victory by six or more runs. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring 10 or more runs in their last game. The Padres have also played 26 of their last 40 games Under the Total at home at Petco Park. They counter with Snell who has a 9-8 record this season with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 24 starts. In his last eight starts, the left-hander has a 1.47 ERA. He has been a bit more effective at home where he owns a 1.24 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .192 in 12 starts as opposed to his 1.28 WHIP and .199 opponent’s batting average in 12 starts on the road.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego has played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with Snell on the mound as a money-line favorite priced in the -125 to -175 price range — including four of their last five games Under the Total under these circumstances. 8* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (929) and the San Diego Padres (930) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (915) and the San Diego Padres (916) listing both starting pitchers Grayson Rodriguez and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (73-45) has won three of their last four games after their 5-3 win at Seattle on Sunday. San Diego (56-62) has lost six of their last seven contests after their 5-4 loss at Arizona yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orioles are slumping with just 17 base hits in their three-game series in Seattle over the weekend. They had just a .167 batting average in that series — and they have played 28 of their last 43 games Under the Total after not hitting better than .200 in their last three games. Baltimore stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 34 of their last 53 road games Under the Total as an underdog listed in the +125 to +175 price range. Rodriguez gets the start with his 2-3 record along with a 5.84 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.20 and 3.88 moving forward. Since being called back up from Triple-A after struggling in his first stint with the Orioles in the spring, he sports a 2.66 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP in 23 2/3 innings with 20 strikeouts and just eight walks. The right-hander has also been more effective on the road where he has a 4.89 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in seven starts as compared to his 6.69 ERA, a 1.79 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .308 in eight starts at home. He faces a slumping Padres lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .231 batting average, a .288 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .658 during that span. San Diego ranks just 22nd and 16th in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. They have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. They have also played 34 of their last 54 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Additionally, the Padres have played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total in Interleague play — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total against teams winning 54-62% of their games. They counter with Darvish who has an 8-7 record along with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 21 starts. The sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results given his SIERA and xFIP of 4.05 and 3.94. In his last three starts, he has a 0.95 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. The right-hander has been better at home at Petco Park where he has a 4.06 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in 11 starts as compared to his 4.34 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .249 in his ten starts on the road.  San Diego has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total with Darvish on the hill priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 price range.

FINAL TAKE: The Orioles are scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .204 batting average, a .262 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .625 during that span. Baltimore ranks just 23rd in MLB since June 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. 10* MLB Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (915) and the San Diego Padres (916) listing both starting pitchers Grayson Rodriguez and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (979) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (980) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Andre Jackson. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (61-58) lost for the third time in their last four games with their 4-2 setback in the opening game of their doubleheader today with the Pirates. Pittsburgh (54-64) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pirates had allowed at least five runs in five straight games before holding the Reds to just two runs this afternoon. Pittsburgh has still played 25 of their last 38 games Over the Total in the month of August — including eight of their 12 games this year. The Pirates have played 18 of their last 28 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season — and they have played 30 of their last 43 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has played 31 of their last 50 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Jackson gets the start for the nightcap with his 0-0 record with a 1.86 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in four relief appearances over 9 2/3 innings for the Pirates after picking him from the Dodgers this season. In his 17 2/3 innings for Los Angeles, the right-hander posted a 6.62 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He faces a Reds’ team that ranks fifth and seventh in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitching. Cincinnati has played 33 of their last 59 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 40 of their last 69 games Over the Total at night. Furthermore, the Reds have played 30 of their last 51 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Weaver who has a 2-4 record with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been even worse at night where he has a 7.24 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Weaver on the mound with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (979) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (980) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Andre Jackson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (931) and the San Francisco Giants (932) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Alex Cobb. THE SITUATION: Texas (69-47) has won nine of their last ten games after their 2-1 win on the road against the Giants last night. San Francisco (62-54) has lost three games in a row as well as five of their last six contests.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run. They have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. San Francisco has also played 24 of their last 35 games at home Under the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Cobb gets the start with his 6-3 record along with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander has been much more effective at home where he enjoys a 1.46 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in nine starts as opposed to his 4.96 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in 12 starts on the road. The Giants have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with Cobb on the hill — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games at home Under the Total in the second half of the season with Cobb getting the ball as their starting pitcher. Texas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory by just one run. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games on the road Under the Total as a money-line underdog priced at +100 or higher. They counter with Heaney who has a 9-6 record along with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 22 starts. The left-hander has been better on the road where he has a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in eight starts as compared to his 1.38 WHIP and .245 opponent’s batting average at home. He faces a Giants team that ranks 27th and 25th in MLB this season in weighted On Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has played 8 of their 10 games this month Under the Total — and San Francisco has played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. 8* MLB Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (931) and the San Francisco Giants (932) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Alex Cobb. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Saskatchewan Roughriders (883) and the Montreal Alouettes (884). THE SITUATION: Saskatchewan (4-4) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 26-24 upset win against Ottawa as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Montreal (4-3) has won three games in a row after their 27-24 win at Hamilton as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Roughriders held the Redblacks to just 266 yards in their win last week. The 24 points that Ottawa scored were propped up by a 45-yard fumble recovery that they scooped up for a touchdown. Saskatchewan has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. The Roughriders are holding their home hosts to just 289.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 22.2 Points-Per-Game. But Saskatchewan scores only 17.0 PPG in their four games away from home. With starting quarterback Trevor Harris out with an injury, they have turned their offense over to former North Texas QB Mason Fine. While Fine is still getting his feet wet playing in the CFL, the Roughriders have not scored more than 13 points in three of their last five games. The Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Montreal held the Tiger-Cats to just 295 total yards in their victory last week. The Alouettes' defense has stepped up to hold four of their six opponents to 18 points or less -- and they have held their last two opponents to 32 combined points. Montreal has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total. They are holding their guests to host 20.5 PPG — but they are only managing to score 18.5 PPG while generating just 332.7 YPG. The Alouettes have offensive line issues — they have allowed 28 sacks this season which is the second most in the CFL. Now here comes the Roughriders who got six quarterbacks sacks last week. Saskatchewan leads the league by allowing only 231.3 passing YPG — and now they may be facing a backup QB. Montreal’s Cody Fajardo is a game-time decision after getting banged up last week. If he cannot go, the Alouettes will turn to former UL-Monroe quarterback Caleb Evans who lacks significant experience playing in the CFL. To compound matters, Montreal is already without starting running back William Stanback.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these teams this season. These two teams have played 19 of their last 24 games against each other Under the Total when playing in Montreal. 10* CFL Friday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Saskatchewan Roughriders (883) and the Montreal Alouettes (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 9:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (977) and the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Walker and Shohei Ohtani. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (65-52) has lost three of their last four games after their 7-5 loss on the road against the Angels in the second game of their three-game series. Los Angeles (57-58) snapped a seven-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing their last game. And while they have played three straight games that finished Over the Total, they have then played 24 of their last 37 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. Despite this mini-run of Overs, San Francisco has still played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. Manager Gabe Kepler is deploying a modified bullpen game tonight that has become in vogue given the new extra inning rules that have all but eliminated the threat of long games where a bevy of relievers would need to be used (and, thus, saved for that possibility). Walker serves as the opener with the expectation that he will pitch through the order for up to three innings. The 27-year-old right-hander has been effective with a 4-1 record with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 28 games which includes seven opening assignments. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 (along with a 2.65 ERA) in 17 innings as compared to his 1.43 WHIP and a .271 opponent’s batting average in 22 1/3 innings at home. He got called up to the majors in mid-June after posting a 0.89 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in 20 1/3 innings while registering 23 strikeouts to just eight walks. In his last five appearances for the Giants, he has allowed only one earned run for a 1.04 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. Kapler will then likely turn to either Tristan Beck and/or Sean Manaea to get to his late-inning relievers. Beck is another 27-year-old right-hander who has a 2.72 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 56 1/3 innings pitching out of the bullpen this season. In his last six appearances, he has a 0.60 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP with 12 strikeouts and only three walks in 11 1/3 innings. Manaea struggled earlier in the season — but the veteran left-hander has found his groove as of late in this role by not allowing an earned run in his last four appearances with a 0.52 WHIP, eight strikeouts, and only one walk in 7 2/3 innings. Los Angeles is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .241 batting average, a .274 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .676 during that span. Since May 1st, the Angels rank just 16th and 18th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they are dealing with injuries now including Mike Trout who remains on the shelf. They had scored only seven combined runs in their previous three games before matching that number last night. Los Angeles has played 43 of their last 70 games Under the Total after winning their last game including four of these last five situations. And while the Angels have played two Overs in a row, they have then played 36 of their last 58 games Under the Total after playing two Unders in a row. They have also played 18 of their last 26 home games Under the Total when a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 price range. It’s Ohtani’s turn to do double-duty by taking the mound to build on his 9-5 record along with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 21 starts. Since the organization decided to keep him at the trade deadline and go all-in by adding players to make a playoff run, the right-hander has not allowed a run in his last two starts. In those 13 innings, he has also posted an elite 0.62 WHIP while striking out 12 batters. He has been at his best at home where he sports a 2.97 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .181 in 12 starts as opposed to his 3.81 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in nine road starts. The Angels have played 26 of their last 38 home games Under the Total with Ohtani on the hill pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants rank just 27th and 29th since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. In their last seven games, San Francisco is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game with a .219 batting average, a .289 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .615. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (977) and the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Walker and Shohei Ohtani. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 AM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Nigeria (225317) and England (225318) in the Round of 16 Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Nigeria (W1-D2-L0) advanced to the Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup with a 0-0 draw with Ireland on Monday. England (W3-D0-L0) completed a sweep of their three Group Stage opponents with their 6-1 victory against China on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral field at Brisbane Stadium in Australia.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England enters this match with an overrated offensive attack that looks more impressive after scoring six times against China. They scored in the fourth minute of that match which changed the complexion of the contest since China needed a victory to advance to the Knockout Stage — so they had to play more aggressively which contributed to the blowout. The Lionesses only registered 2.6 expected goals in that match so they significantly overperformed the underlying metrics. England only scored one goal apiece in their first two matches at this event — and their 6.3 expected goals are just the ninth most in the tournament. The Lionesses are dealing with several injuries with striker Beth Mead and midfielder Fran Kirby out with injuries before the World Cup started. Keira Walsh is dealing with a knee that leaves her in doubt to play this morning. They are far from full strength in their attack. Frankly, this England side is probably a bit overvalued right now on the heels of winning the Euro Championship last summer. Not only did the Lionesses have the benefit of home-field advantage in hosting the event but they were fortunate in several of their matches after losing the expected goals battle. But England has been dominant on defense despite playing without their best defender, Leah Williamson. The penalty kick goal China scored is the only goal they have allowed. Their 0.9 expected goals China managed is the most an opponent has generated in this event — and their total expected goals allowed is just 1.9 xGA. They face a dangerous opponent in Nigeria who is a disciplined underdog that will be content in giving up possession while limiting high-quality scoring opportunities. Despite allowing the fourth most touches of the 16 teams in the Knockout Stage, they rank fifth in the tournament by limiting their opponents on target to just 22.9% of their shot attempts. In their scoreless draw with Ireland, they held the Irish women to just 0.5 expected goals while managing only 1.1 expected goals themselves. The Super Falcons have scored only three goals in this tournament while registering just 3.0 expected goals. But they have allowed only two goals with an xGA of just 4.1.

FINAL TAKE: Nigeria has played two matches to scoreless draws with their 0-0 draw with Canada perhaps being most telling since the Canadians are one of the best teams in the world who won the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo. Nigeria survived perhaps the toughest group in this tournament that included host nation Australia as well as a disappointed Canada squad that did not advance along with a feisty Ireland side. I considered the Super Falcons plus the +1.5 goals but concluded the Under was the preferred option given the strength of England’s defense (I think a 2-0 England win is more likely than a 2-1 win for the Lionesses). 25* Women’s World Cup Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Nigeria (225317) and England (225318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 8/6:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday is with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers versus the San Diego Padres listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Rich Hill. Los Angeles (63-46) had their four-game winning streak snapped yesterday in an 8-3 loss on the road to the Padres. The Dodgers have played 28 of their last 41 games Over the Total after allowing eight or more runs in their last game. They have also played 17 of their last 23 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. San Diego (55-56) has won six of their last eight games — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Padres are playing their sixth straight game against an NL West rival tonight — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing three or more divisional rivals in a row. Take the Over listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on an 11 of 18 (61%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after a 1-1 split in the last 24 hours — losing their 25* MLB play on the Arizona/Minnesota Under but rebounding early this morning with Sweden plus the +0.5 goal-line in the Women’s World Cup! Now Frank furthers his 7 of 9 (78%) MLB run with featured plays with tonight’s LA Dodgers-San Diego money-line side winner on ESPN at 7:05 PM ET! CA$H-IN Frank’s Sunday Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL!

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY AM, 8/6:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday morning is with Under the Total in the Round of 16 match between the United States and Sweden in the Women’s World Cup. The United States (W1-D2-L0) have only scored once in their last two matches after a 0-0 draw with Portugal in their final Group Stage match on Tuesday. They have only scored four times in this tournament with an average of one goal per 15.5 shots attempts. But while the scoring attack is being loudly criticized, the Stars and Stripes may be playing the best defense in the entire World Cup with just one goal conceded on only one shot on target and a mere 11 shots allowed overall in their three matches. Sweden (W3-D0-L0) is a defense-first club that is very content in using their 4-2-3-1 formation to muck matches up while playing at a slow pace. The Blue and Yellow have only allowed one goal in their three matches after blanking Argentina, 3-0, on Wednesday. They are playing a stifling defense that has limited their three Group Stage opponents to seeing just 25.9% of their shots finish on target. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 10 of 16 (63%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays which has continued his 167 of 273 (61%) All-Sports mark since March 9th! Frank DELIVERED his 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year last month with the Mexico-Panama Under — and now he furthers his 11 of 18 (61%) Soccer run with the USA-Sweden goal-line winner on Fox-TV early Sunday morning at 5 AM ET! WATCH & WIN (maybe on the DVR) — and BANK on Frank!

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) and the Minnesota Twins (980) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Kenta Maeda. THE SITUATION: Arizona (57-54) has won lost four straight games after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Twins yesterday. Minnesota (57-54) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road after scoring two runs or less — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Arizona has scored no more than four runs in eight straight games — and they have not allowed more than four runs in seven straight contests. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in five straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing five straight games where they did not allow more than four runs. They have played 19 of their last 29 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They have also played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total in Interleague play. Nelson gets the start with his 6-5 record along with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 22 starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home at Chase Field where he has been saddled with a 8.01 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .356 in ten starts — but he has thrived away from that hitter’s ballpark as he sports a 2.67 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 12 starts on the road. In his last five starts on the road, he owns a 1.87 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP while holding three of his opponents to just one run. The Diamondbacks have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with Nelson pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He faces a slumping Twins lineup that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .222 batting average, a .283 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .660 during that span. Minnesota has scored three runs or less in four of their last five games — but they have held four straight opponents to three runs or less with three of those opponents only scoring two runs. The Twins have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total in Interleague play — and they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Maeda who has a 2-6 record along with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 11 starts. Those frontline numbers are skewed by one disastrous start at home against the New York Yankees when he gave up ten runs in three innings of work. He went on the injured list after that effort with a tricep injury that kept him on the shelf for two months. Since his return to the mound in June, he has been outstanding with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in seven starts. His velocity is back up which has helped him strike out 51 batters in 37 2/3 innings — and he has struck out at least seven batters in four of his last five starts. Maeda has a 3.16 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in seven starts — but take away that disaster against the Yankees, he has a 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in three home starts this season. Minnesota has played 20 of their last 26 home games Under the Total with Maeda on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: While Arizona ranks ninth and tenth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers this season — but they have dropped to 17th and 18th in those categories since the beginning of July. The Diamondbacks are scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .195 batting average, a .243 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .523 during that span. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) and the Minnesota Twins (980) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Kenta Maeda. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) and the San Diego Padres (910) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (62-45) has won three games in a row after their 8-2 victory against Oakland on Thursday. San Diego (54-55) has won two games in a row — and five of their last six contests — after their 11-1 win at Colorado on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have beaten their last three opponents by at least four runs — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games on the road Under the Total after winning three in a row by at least four runs in each contest. And while they have scored at least seven runs in three straight games, they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring five or more runs in three straight games. Los Angeles has also played 32 of their last 50 games on the road Under the Total as a money-line underdog. Miller takes the mound with a 6-2 record this season along with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 11 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.94 and 3.88 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.63 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in five starts as opposed to his 5.85 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in six starts at home. He faces a Padres team that ranks 22nd and 16th in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. San Diego has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by four or more runs. They have also played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after scoring eight or more runs in their last game. The Padres have also played 34 of their last 53 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Darvish who has an 8-7 record with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 19 starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.97 and 3.82 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.24 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in ten starts as compared to his 4.86 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in nine starts on the road. The Padres have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total with Darvish pitching as a money-line favorite priced up to -150.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego has lost five games in a row against the Dodgers while scoring just two runs in those two contests. The Padres have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from at least two straight losses while not scoring more than two runs in either game. 8* MLB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) and the San Diego Padres (910) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:38 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Los Angeles Angels (966) listing both starting pitchers Bryan Woo and Shohei Ohtani. THE SITUATION: Seattle (56-52) has won three of their last four games after their 6-3 victory against Boston yesterday. Los Angeles (56-53) has lost four of their last six games after a 12-5 loss at Atlanta on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 17 of their last 28 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And while they have played three straight Overs, they have then polled 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total. Woo takes the mound with a 1-3 record along with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 10 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.89 and 4.09 moving forward. And while he has been saddled with a 5.85 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in four starts at home, those numbers improve to a 4.34 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .234 in his six starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where 17 or more combined runs were scored. They return home where they have played 17 of their last 27 home games Under the Total as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. They counter with Ohtani coming off an outstanding complete-game one-hit shutout against Detroit in his last start. For the season, the right-hander has a 9-5 record with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.15 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.81 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in nine starts on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Angels have played 26 of their last 38 home games Under the Total with Ohtani on the hill priced as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. 8* MLB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Los Angeles Angels (966) listing both starting pitchers Bryan Woo and Shohei Ohtani. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the British Columbia Lions (671) and the Winnipeg Jets (672). THE SITUATION: British Columbia (6-1) has won three games in a row after their 27-0 shutout victory at Edmonton as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Winnipeg (5-2) has won three of their last four games after their 28-14 win against Edmonton as a 15-point favorite back on July 20th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions are playing outstanding defense for coordinator Richie Hall — they have only allowed five touchdowns in their seven games this season. They lead the CFL by allowing only 13.4 Points-Per-Game. The Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games after a straight-up victory — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after beating a West Division rival — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning on the road against a division foe. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total. They are holding their home hosts to just 16.5 PPG and just 285.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The Under is also 16-4-2 in their last 22 games played in Auguste. Winnipeg has played 4 straight Under after a point-spread loss. The Bombers have registered 25 sacks this season — and they have been opportunistic by forcing 12 turnovers including picking off seven passes. Now they have had their bye week to scheme against the Lions’ backup quarterback Dane Evans who is making his second straight start for the injured Vernon Adams. Winnipeg is holding their guests to just 21.5 PPG and 289.2 total YPG. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after their bye week. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Winnipeg will have revenge on their mind after losing at home to British Columbia by a 30-6 score back on June 22nd in a game where they were sacked by seven times. Adams was the Lions’ quarterback in that game — and these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Winnipeg. The Bombers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and British Columbia has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 10* CFL British Columbia-Winnipeg CBS Sports Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the British Columbia (671) and the Winnipeg Jets (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the preseason Hall of Fame Game between the New York Jets (101) and the Cleveland Browns (102). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) begins their preseason after going 3-0 under head coach Robert Saleh last year. Cleveland (0-0) finished 1-2 in the preseason under head coach Kevin Stefanski. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With the Total in the low-30s, I look for more scoring than expected between two teams that have quality depth at quarterback. Saleh will not play Aaron Rodgers tonight — but the Jets have good depth at quarterback. While Zach Wilson has been a disappointment as a starter, he is one of the better backups in the league. He has passed for over 4000 yards in his first two seasons — and his season was cut short last year because of injuries. He has played in 22 games in the regular season while making 12 starts. They signed Tim Doyle in the offseason to reunite with Rodgers after he served as his backup in Green Bay for years. Doyle has played in 17 games and made three NFL starts — and he has completed 62.3% of his 106 passes. Then there is Chris Streveler who has played in nine games with one start in his three previous seasons in the NFL. But Streveler is a gunslinger who led the Winnipeg Blue Bombers to a Grey Cup championship in 2019 in the Canadian Football League.   He has completed 67.5% of his 40 passes in the NFL. He also passed for 277 yards in the preseason last year for the Jets with five touchdown passes and only one interception while averaging 8.4 yards-per-attempt. And remember that these quarterbacks are not facing an elite first-string NFL defense. These veteran quarterbacks will be throwing against second, third, and fourth stringers fighting to make NFL teams. In Saleh’s six preseason games as the Jets’ head coach, they have scored 24.2 Points-Per-Game while scoring at least 23 points five times. And despite Saleh being a former defensive coordinator, the New York defense allowed 16 or more points in four of those six preseason games. The Jets have played 5 of their 6 preseason games Over the Total under Saleh with the average combined score being 43.5 points. Cleveland played all 3 of their preseason games last year Over the Toal with the offense scoring at least 20 points in all three games. Fourth-year head coach Kevin Stefanski will not play Deshaun Watson nor     Joshua Dobbs who they signed as a free agent from Tennessee in the offseason. Third-year quarterback Kellen Mond will get the start with plenty to prove after only playing in one game in the regular season in his first two years. The former Texas A&M starter has talent which is why he was drafted in the third round. The Browns would not mind showcasing his talent tonight. Then their fifth-round draft pick Dorian Thompson-Robinson will get time on the field. DTR has raw talent as well after playing for four seasons at UCLA. Don’t underestimate these two athletic quarterbacks' ability to move the football with their legs as well.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is a trendy play tonight in some circles since 12 of the last 20 (and seven of the last ten) opening Hall of Fame preseason games have finished Under the Total. There are a better group of quarterbacks playing tonight than in most of those games. Furthermore, going back to 2004, 16 of the 32 teams playing in the last 16 Hall of Fame Games have scored at least 17 points — the baseline we need from both teams to reach our Over. 10* NFLx Hall of Fame Game NBC-TV Special with Over the Total in the preseason Hall of Fame Game between the New York Jets (101) and the Cleveland Browns (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (929) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) listing both starting pitchers Hogan Harris and Tony Gonsolin. THE SITUATION: Oakland (30-78) has lost two games in a row — and five of their last seven — after a 7-3 loss on the road against the Dodgers yesterday. Los Angeles (60-45) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 19 of their last 28 games on the road Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row. Additionally, Oakland has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 21 of their last 31 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They have also played 24 of their last 33 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +150 to +250 price range. Harris gets his sixth start and 13th appearance in a season where he has a 2-5 record along with a 6.07 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. While the left-hander has a 5.35 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .232 in 33 2/3 innings when pitching at home, those numbers skyrocket to a 7.15 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in 22 2/3 innings on the road. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks sixth and fifth in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. Los Angeles has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 28 of their last 43 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Dodgers only have a .153 batting average in their last three games — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a three-game stretch where they are not hitting over .200. They stay at home where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher — and they have played 5 straight Overs when priced as a -250 to -330 money-line favorite at home. Furthermore, the Dodgers have played 24 of their last 37 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range — and they have played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total in Interleague play. Gonsolin gets the start with a 5-4 record along with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.91 and 5.08 moving forward. The Regression Gods have already been doing their thing with the right-hander as he has been saddled with a 6.13 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in his nine starts since the beginning of June. Gonsolin has not been as effective at home this season either where he has a 4.91 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in eight starts as opposed to his 3.49 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in eight starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Gonsolin on the hill priced as a -150 or higher money-line favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Despite their bad record, the A’s have been middle of the pack with their hitting on the road against right-handed pitchers — they rank 18th and 17th this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created in away games against right-handed pitching. And since the beginning of June, Oakland ranks 13th and 12th in MLB on the road against right-handed pitching in those categories. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (929) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) listing both starting pitchers Hogan Harris and Tony Gonsolin. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (907) and the Chicago Cubs (908) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Drew Smiley. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (59-50) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 20-9 loss on the road against the Cubs yesterday. Chicago (54-53) has won nine of their last 11 games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing 15 or more runs in their last game. They have also played 19 of their last 30 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They give the ball to Williamson who has a 3-2 record with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 13 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression for the left-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.26 and 5.23 moving forward. Williamson has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.42 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228 in seven starts — but those numbers rise to a 4.56 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .277 in six starts on the road. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .305 batting average, a .373 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .919 during that span. Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing eight or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Cubs have played 20 of their last 29 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 10-10.5 range. They counter with Smyly who has an 8-7 record with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 21 games this season. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.59 and 4.73 moving forward. And while the lefty has a 3.26 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in 11 games on the road, those numbers rise to a 5.94 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in 10 games at home. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total with Smyly on the mound priced at -110 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank third and fifth in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers. 8* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (907) and the Chicago Cubs (908) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Drew Smyly. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Ben Lively and Justin Steele. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (59-49) has won two games in a row — and nine of their last 12 contests — after their 6-5 victory on the road against the Cubs in the opening game of this series. Chicago (53-53) had been on an eight-game winning streak but they have now lost two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 29 of their last 45 games Over the Total after winning their previous game by just one run — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win by only one run against an NL Central rival. They have also played 42 of their last 67 games Over the Total after a win by two runs or less. And in their last 35 games after winning two or more games in a row, they have played 23 of these games Over the Total. They have also played 12 of their last 20 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced at +150 or higher. Lively gets the ball for Cincinnati holding a 4-6 record with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 13 games (11 starts). The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projection an ERA of 4.14 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in seven appearances — but those numbers rise to a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .280 in six appearances (five starts) on the road. Lively also has a 4.20 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in eight appearances at night — and the Reds have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Lively making the start in a night game. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .278 batting average, a .342 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .815 during that span. Chicago ranks fifth and fourth in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss to a divisional rival. They have also played 35 of their last 54 games at home Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row. Additionally, Chicago has played 18 of their last 25 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have played 19 of their last 28 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. They counter with Steele who has an 11-3 record with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.12 HIP in 19 starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.88 and 3.74 moving forward. Perhaps the Regression Gods are already making their presence known since the left-hander had a 4.44 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in July. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.76 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in eight starts — but those numbers do rise in his 11 starts at home at Wrigley Field where he has a 2.97 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .247. Steele gave up only one earned run in six innings on the road at St. Louis in his last start on Thursday — but the Cubs have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total with Steele looking to follow up a start where he did not allow more than two earned runs. He faces a Reds lineup that is scoring 5.5 Runs-Per-Game again left-handed starting pitchers with a .277 batting average, a .351 on-base percentage, and a .796 OPS. Cincinnati ranked seventh in MLB last month in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds have now beaten the Cubs in four straight games — all played at Wrigley Field. Chicago has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total at home when playing with revenge from two straight losses at home to their opponent. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Ben Lively and Justin Steele. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (907) and the Colorado Rockies (908) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Austin Comber. THE SITUATION: San Diego (52-54) has won three straight games after their 5-3 loss at home against Texas yesterday. Colorado (41-64) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 2-0 win against Oakland on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Padres have held their last five opponents to three runs or less — and they have played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than three runs in four or more games in a row. San Diego has played 30 of their last 49 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played five straight Unders — and they have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing five or more Unders in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 11 or higher. Lugo gets the start looking to build on his 4-5 record along with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been quite good since returning from a stint on the injured list last month. In his last seven starts, he has a 3.13 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP with 41 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings. He has also been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 3.38 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in eight starts as compared to his 3.93 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in seven starts at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Padres have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total with Lugo on the mound following a victory in their last game. He faces a Rockies team that leaves way too many runners on base. While Colorado ranks sixth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage at home against right-handed pitchers, they only rank 29th in MLB in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. The Rockies have fallen to ranking just 21st in MLB this month in weighted On-Base Percentage at home against right-handed pitchers — and they still rank 29th in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. This team has also traded away two of their best bats with C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk being shipped off to the Los Angeles Angels yesterday. Colorado has played 25 of their last 39 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after shutting out their previous opponent. The Rockies have also played 27 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a game where three or fewer combined runs were scored. And in their last 9 games at home when listed as a money-line underdog at +175 or higher, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. They counter with Gomber who has an 8-8 record with a 5.83 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 21 starts. The left-hander has been much more effective lately as he has held five of his last six opponents to two earned runs or less with three of those four starts being at home at Coors Field. Gomber has a 3.00 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP in his last six starts — and he has issued only two walks in his last seven starts! In his last four starts at home at the hitter-friendly Coors Field, he has a 3.75 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. Colorado has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with Gomber on the mound priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. He will be supported by a defense that has not committed an error in two straight games — and the Rockies have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after not committing an error in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Padres rank 19th in MLB this month in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (907) and the Colorado Rockies (908) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Austin Gomber. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (963) and the Baltimore Orioles (964) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Dean Kremer. THE SITUATION: New York (55-49) has won five of their last seven games after their 8-3 victory on the road against the Orioles last night. Baltimore (63-41) has lost three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. They have also played 38 of their last 63 games Under the Total when played at night. Severino gets the start as he looks to improve on his 2-4 record along with a 6.46 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP in 11 starts. The right-hander struggled in his initial starts after coming off the injured list from which he started the season — but in his last two starts, he has allowed only five earned runs while posting a 3.08 ERA in those 11 2/3 innings. The Yankees have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Baltimore has not scored more than four runs in five straight games — and they have played 30 of their last 42 games Under the Total after failing to score more than four runs in three or more games in a row. Kremer gets the start looking to build on his 10-4 record along with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 21 starts this season. He has held three of his last four opponents to just one earned run including in his last start where he allowed one earned run in seven innings of work at Philadelphia against the Phillies. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in 11 starts as opposed to his 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in ten starts on the road. Kremer also has a 3.87 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 13 starts at night — and Baltimore has won played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total with Kremer taking the ball in a night game.

FINAL TAKE: Kremer faces a Yankees team that ranks 27th and 26th in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. The Orioles rank 27th in MLB this month in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 8* MLB Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (963) and the Baltimore Orioles (964) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Dean Kremer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (915) and the Chicago White Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (52-52) was on a three-game winning streak before their 3-0 loss on the road against the White Sox in the second game of this series. Chicago (42-63) snapped a six-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have not allowed more than three runs in four straight games. They have played 32 of their last 47 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 23 of their last 30 games Under the Total against fellow AL Central rivals. And in their last 52 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher, they have played 32 of those games Under the Total. Allen gets the start looking to build on his 4-3 record along with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 14 starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.55 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in seven starts at home. He faces a White Sox line that ranks 29th and 28th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 30th in those categories since June 1st. Chicago is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .233 batting average, a .262 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .655 during that span. The White Sox have scored three runs or less in three of their last four games. They have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total after their bullpen did not allow an earned run in their last game. Chicago has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored — and they have played 8 straight Unders after a game where three or more combined runs were scored. The White Sox have also played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They counter with Clevinger who has been activated off the injured list for this start. The right-hander has a 3-4 record with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 12 starts this season. He has been better at home where he owns a 2.42 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in five starts as compared to his 4.78 ERA and a .245 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland ranks 22nd and 21st in MLB this season since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (915) and the Chicago White Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Bobby Miller. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (56-48) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-0 loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday. Los Angeles (58-43) has lost three of their last four games after an 8-1 loss to Toronto on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played five straight Unders while not giving up more than three runs in those contests. But they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing five or more Unders in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +175 to +250 price range. Williamson gets the ball with a 2-2 record along with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.07 and 5.10 moving forward. He has been less effective on the road where he has a 4.95 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in five starts as compared to his 4.42 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228 win seven starts at home. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers lineup that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .286 batting average, a .375 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .877 during that span. Los Angeles ranks sixth and second this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. They have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by six or more runs. The Dodgers have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. They counter with Miller who has a 6-1 record with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 5.93 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in five starts as opposed to his 2.63 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 on the road. The Dodgers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Miller on the mound priced as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank eighth in MLB since the beginning of May in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Bobby Miller. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the New York Mets (902) listing both starting pitchers Josiah Gray and Kodai Senga. THE SITUATION: Washington (43-59) has won five of their last six games after their 5-4 victory against Colorado yesterday. New York (47-54) has lost three of their last four games after their 3-1 loss on the road against the New York Yankees yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by just one run. They have also played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. They give the ball to Gray who has a 7-8 record with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has struggled at home where he has been saddled with a 4.57 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .270 in eight starts — but those numbers improve in his 12 starts on the road where he has a 2.74 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .241. Washington has played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total with Gray pitching as a money-line underdog priced in the +150 to +200 range. He should have success against this Mets team that ranks 27th and 23rd in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. New York has played 19 of their last 30 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. They return home to Citi Field where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total — and they have played 22 of their last 32 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. The Mets have also played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when listed as a money-line favorite priced at -150 or higher. They counter with Senga who has a 7-5 record with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has thrived at home where he owns a 2.50 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .177 in nine starts as opposed to his 4.07 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in nine starts on the road. New York has played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with Senga on the hill priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Nationals rank 29th in MLB since June 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the New York Mets (902) listing both starting pitchers Josiah Gray and Kodai Senga. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Framber Valdez. THE SITUATION: Texas (59-43) has lost four of their last five games after their 4-3 loss on the road against the Astros last night. Houston (58-44) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 29 of their last 43 games Under the Total after a win by just one run. They have also played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a victory by just one run against a fellow AL West opponent. All three of Houston’s wins during their current winning streak have been by just one run — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row by just one run. The Astros have also played 13 of their last 21 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Valdez gets the ball looking to build on his 8-6 record along with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 19 starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.13 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 11 starts as compared to his 4.11 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eight starts. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home with Valdez on the mound priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. He faces a Rangers lineup that pounded left-handed pitching earlier in the season — but Texas ranks just 19th and 20th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created since June 1st on the road against left-handed pitchers. The Rangers fall even further since July in those categories as they rank 24th and 23rd since the beginning of the month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against lefties. Texas has asked their bullpen to log in 9 1/3 innings of work in their last two games — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when their bullpen has pitched nine or more combined innings in their last two games. The Rangers have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. They stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175. They counter with Heaney who has a 6-6 record with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 19 starts. The left-hander has struggled at home where he has a 4.97 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .261 in 12 starts — but in his seven starts on the road, he has a 3.99 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 36 of their last 54 games at home Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 8* MLB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Heaney and Framber Valdez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Luis Medina. THE SITUATION: Houston (55-44) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 4-1 loss on the road against the A’s yesterday. Oakland (28-73) has won three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total after scoring one run or less in their last game — including 12 of these last 18 circumstances this season. Houston completes their nine-game road trip today — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing their previous seven games on the road. The Astros have also played 38 of their last 58 road games Under the Total when priced as a -125 or higher favorite. Brown gets the start with his 6-7 record along with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 18 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are promising with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.42 and 3.05 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.79 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in ten starts as compared to his 4.89 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276  in eight starts at home. Houston has played 6 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total with Brown pitching with the Total set from 7-8.5. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 1.89 ERA in their last five games — and the Astros have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of 2.00 or lower in their last five games. Brown and the Houston pen face an A’s team that is only scoring 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .209 batting average. Oakland ranks 30th and 29th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. They have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in a victory against a divisional rival in their last game. The A’s have also played 14 of their last 23 games at home as an underdog priced from +150 to +200. They complete a ten-game home stand this afternoon — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing six or more games in a row at home. They counter with Medina who has a 3-7 record with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 13 games including nine starts. The sabermetrics indicate he should be giving about a run less per game with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.62 and 4.47 moving forward. Most of the damage against him has taken place on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.16 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in 32 2/3 innings — he has a more respectable 4.41 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in 32 2/3 innings at home. Furthermore, the right-hander has made an adjustment recently that is generating better results. He has introduced a sinker into his arsenal which he is throwing in place of his four-seamer — and he is using his slider more to offset this new pitch. Medina has a 3.12 ERA in his last five appearances with 28 strikeouts in those 26 innings. He faces an Astros lineup missing the injured Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve — they are scoring 4.3 Runs-Per-Games against right-handed starting pitchers with a .238 batting average, a .301 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .678.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* MLB AL West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Luis Medina. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Panama (225125) and Mexico (225126) in the finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Panama (W3-D2-L0) reached the championship match of the Gold Cup on Wednesday by beating the United States in penalty kicks (5-4) after their semifinals match remained deadlocked at 1-1 after extra time. Mexico (W4-D0-L1) advanced to the finals of this tournament with a 3-0 victory against Jamaica on Wednesday. This match is being played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Mexico has found their mojo again under manager Jaime Lozano who took over for  Diego Cocca after El Tri got trounced by the United States by a 3-0 score in the semifinals of the CONCACAF Nations League last month. The improved play has started with their defense as they have allowed only two goals in their five matches — and one of those conceded goals was against Qatar when they were playing with a rotated starting XI in the final group stage match with the luxury of having first place in their group all but wrapped up. Mexico has held their opponents to just 30 shots in this tournament — an average of just six per match. Their expected goals allowed (xGA) has been only 1.5 goals. Their veteran keeper Guillermo Ochoa has registered three clean sheets. El Tri did score an impressive three goals against a strong Jamaican side but the game script of that match quickly tilted in their favor when they scored in the first two minutes. The Reggae Boyz were forced out of their preferred defensive posture playing catchup for the entire match. Panama has been deceptively strong on the defensive side of the pitch with four of the five goals they have allowed taking place after the 90th-minute mark. The lone goal the United States scored against them was at the 105th-minute mark after the match remained scoreless after the 90 minutes of regulation time.

FINAL TAKE: Panama has been blanked in four of their last five matches against Mexico — they have scored just once in those previous five encounters. Los Canaleros will engage in a defensive posture hoping to force extra time as they did against the Americans. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Panama (225125) and Mexico (225126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (919) and the Los Angeles Angels (920) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Reid Detmers. THE SITUATION: Houston (51-41) has won two of their last three games after their 7-5 victory on the road against the Angels yesterday. Los Angeles (45-47) has lost six games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 9 of their last 14 games on the road Under the Total when priced as a  money-line favorite up to -150. Valdez gets the ball for the start tonight to build on his 7-6 record along with a 2.51 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 17 starts. The left-hander was more effective on the road last season when he had a 2.27 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in 17 starts as compared to his 3.54 ERA, a 1.26 WIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .240 in 14 starts. This season, while his ERA of 3.23 in his six starts on the road is higher than his 2.13 ERA in 11 starts at home — but his opponent’s batting average of .213 on the road is lower than his .230 opponent’s batting average at home. Houston has played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with Valdez on the hill priced as a money-line road favorite from -125 to -175. Los Angeles has given up seven or more runs in three straight games — but they have played 21 of their last 34 games Under the Total after allowing seven or more runs in three or more games in a row. The Angels have also played 7 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total. They counter with Detmers who has a 2-6 record with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.70 and 3.85 moving forward. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.35 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in nine starts as opposed to his 5.71 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in seven starts on the road. The Angels have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total with Detmers on the hill priced as a money-line underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Angels are missing two of their best right-handed bats with both Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon out with injuries. Since June 1st, Los Angeles ranks 28th in MLB in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. 8* MLB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (919) and the Los Angeles Angels (920) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Reid Detmers. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (903) and the Milwaukee Brewers (904) listing both starting pitchers Ben Lively and Wade Miley. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (50-40) has won six of their last seven games after their 8-5 win on the road against the Brewers yesterday. Milwaukee (48-42) has lost three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played a decisive 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. And in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record, they have played 9 of these games Over the Total. Lively gets the start coming off the injured list — he has a 4-4 record with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in nine appearances (seven starts). He has been most effective at home where he owns a 3.86 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .208 — but in his four games on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.43 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .298. He faces a Brewers lineup that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .276 batting average, a .366 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .814. Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. They counter with Miley who has a 5-2 record with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.05 and 4.95 moving forward. He has been less effective at home where he has a 3.94 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .268 in six starts as opposed to his 2.73 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .202 in six starts on the road. The Brewers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total at home — and the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games at home against teams with a winning record. He faces a Reds team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .849 OPS in those games. They are also scoring 5.5 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .281 batting average, a .354 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS  of .808 in those contests. Cincinnati has played 14 of their last 20g games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds have seen ten or more combined runs scored in four of their last five games as well as seven of their last ten contests. The Brewers have seen ten or more runs scored in five of their last six games as well as seven of their last nine contests. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between Cincinnati Reds (903) and the Milwaukee Brewers (904) listing both starting pitchers Ben Lively and Wade Miley. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (903) and the Milwaukee Brewers (904) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Abbott and Corbin Burnes. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (49-39) has won five games in a row after their 5-4 win at Washington in ten innings yesterday. Milwaukee (47-41) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 6-5 win against the Chicago Cubs yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 35 of their last 52 games Over the Total after winning their previous game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last contest. They have also played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati gives the ball to Abbott who has a 4-0 record with a 1.21 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP in five starts. The left-hander is due for some major regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.04 and 4.27 moving forward. Now the rookie faces a Brewers team that ranks fourth and fifth in MLB since June in weighed On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed starting pitchers. Milwaukee has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Brewers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They counter with Burnes who has a 6-5 record with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 17 starts this year. The sabermetrics call for even more regression despite him already underachieving versus his 2.94 ERA and 0.97 WHIP last season. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.29 and 4.14 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home either — he has a 4.27 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in eight starts at home as compared to his 3.76 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in nine starts on the road. Milwaukee has played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with Burnes their starting pitcher when priced up to -150.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank fifth in MLB since May in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (903) and the Milwaukee Brewers (904) listing both starting pitchers Andrew Abbott and Corbin Burnes. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Luis Ortiz and Emmet Sheehan. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (39-45) has lost three games in a row after their 5-2 loss on the road against the Dodgers yesterday. Los Angeles (47-37) snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 15-5-1 in the Dodgers' last 21 games after a win in their last game — and the Over is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game. The Over is also 6-2-1 in Los Angeles’ last 9 games at home. They give the ball to Sheehan to make his fourth start of the season since being called up from Double-A last month. He has a 2-0 record with a 2.65 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP in his first three starts — but the deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.84 and 5.02 moving forward. He faces a Pirates team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Pittsburgh has only scored five combined runs in their last two games — but they have then played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs in two straight games. They counter with Ortiz who has a 2-3 record with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in ten games (nine starts). The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.51 and 5.25 respectively. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks seventh and fourth in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 straight Overs against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total. 8* MLB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Luis Ortiz and Emmet Sheehan. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (965) and the Texas Rangers (966) listing both starting pitchers Ronel Blanco and Jon Gray. THE SITUATION: Houston (44-37) has won three of their last four games after a 14-0 win at St. Louis yesterday. Texas (49-32) had their two-game winning streak snapped in an 8-5 loss to Detroit yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They are scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total. Blanco gets the start tonight as he looks to build on his 1-0 record with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 35 innings this season. While he has a 3.79 ERA in 19 innings at home, his ERA rises to 5.63 in his 16 innings on the road. He has a very tough challenge pitching against this Rangers team that leads MLB in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers this season (and also since May 1st). The Over is 11-5-2 in Texas’ last 18 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 5-2-2 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Rangers’ last 5 games after scoring five or more runs in their last game — and the Over is 5-2-3 in their last 10 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. Texas has played 12 of their last 14 home games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Additionally, the Over is 16-5-5 in their last 26 games at home. They counter with Gray who has a 6-3 record with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 14 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.39 respectively moving forward. And while Gray has a 1.99 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .180 in seven starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 3.79 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in his seven starts at home. Texas has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Gray pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros rank ninth in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (965) and the Texas Rangers (966) listing both starting pitchers Ronel Blanco and Jon Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (959) and the Texas Rangers (960) listing both starting pitchers Joey Wentz and Dane Dunning. THE SITUATION: Detroit (34-44) has lost two of their last three games after their 8-3 loss on the road to the Rangers yesterday. Texas (48-31) snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played 16 of their last 23 games at home Over the Total after a win in their last game — and they have played 18 of their last 27 home games Over the Total after a win by four or more runs. The Over is also 14-5-5 in their last 24 games at home — and the Over is 17-6-4 in their last 27 home games against teams with a losing record. Dunning gets the start looking to build off his 6-1 record along with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 17 appearances this season. The deeper sabermetrics are screaming for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.93 and 4.78 moving forward. The Over is 6-1-1 in Detroit’s last 8 games after losing their last game — and the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games. They counter with Wentz who has a 1-8 record with a 6.72 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in 15 appearances this season. The left-hander has been even worse when pitching on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.48 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in six starts. He faces a Rangers team that ranks third and second in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 13-6-3 in Texas’s last 22 games against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams — and the Over is 32-14-6 in the last 52 games between these two clubs. 8* MLB Wednesday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (959) and the Texas Rangers (960) listing both starting pitchers Joey Wentz and Dane Dunning. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (971) and the Baltimore Orioles (972) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (42-38) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 3-1 victory in the second game of their series with the Orioles. Baltimore (48-30) was on a three-game winning streak before the setback.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing their previous game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Cincinnati has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Weaver who has a 1-2 record with a 6.86 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in 12 starts. The right-hander has been even worse on the road where he has a 1.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .323 in six starts as opposed to his 1.47 WHIP and a .295 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home. He has been crushed this month with a 10.80 ERA, a 2.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .368 in his four starts in June. He faces an Orioles team that ranks sixth and fifth respectively in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank third in both those metrics since the beginning of June. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams using right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a loss — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Orioles have played 4 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gibson who has an 8-5 record with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.74 and 4.48 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home either where he has a 4.42 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.22 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .263 in nine starts on the road. And in his four starts this month, Gibson has a 5.75 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank sixth in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati has played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (971) and the Baltimore Orioles (972) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (929) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Tony Gonsolin. THE SITUATION: Houston (41-36) has lost two games in a row and seven of their last nine contests after their 8-7 loss on the road to the Dodgers yesterday. Los Angeles (43-33) has won four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where 15 or more combined runs were scored. They stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 16 road games Under the Total as an underdog priced up to +150. Brown gets the start looking to build on his 3.78 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts. The rookie right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.46 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .222 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.12 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in seven starts at home. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Brown their starting pitcher with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Los Angeles has played 43 of their last 68 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Dodgers have also played 30 of their last 47 games Under the Total after a win by two runs or less. Gonsolin gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 4-2 record with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has been consistently outstanding when pitching at home where he enjoys a 2.26 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .123 in his career 32 games (31 starts) in his career spanning 163 innings. Los Angeles has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total with Gonsolin on the mound and favored up to the price of -150.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 15-7-2 in the last 24 meetings between these two teams. 8* MLB Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (929) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Tony Gonsolin. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (925) and the Colorado Rockies (926) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Sandoval and Kyle Freeland. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (41-35) has lost two games in a row after their 2-0 loss on the road to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday. Colorado (29-48) has lost eight games in a row after their 5-3 loss at Cincinnati on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Angels got shutout in both their games against the Dodgers — so they have not scored a run in 18 straight innings. The Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after losing their last game — and the Under is 20-7-1 in their last 28 games after an off day. They give the ball to Sandoval who has a 4-6 record with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 13 starts. The lefty has been less effective at home where he sports a 4.37 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .296 in six starts — but in his seven starts on the road, he has a 3.79 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .215. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 3.31 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in 13 starts at home as opposed to his 2.54 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in 14 starts on the road. The Angels have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with Sandoval their starting pitcher and priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He should pitch well against this Rockies team that has played 6 straight Unders against left-handed starting pitchers — and Colorado has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Los Angeles has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when listed as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175 — and they have played 4 straight Unders with the Total set at 11 or higher. Colorado has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 opening games to a new series. After playing their last ten games on the road, they return home for the first time since June 11th — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after being on the road for seven or more days. The Rockies have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total at Coors Field. They counter with Freeland who has a 4-8 record with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 15 starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.19 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in eight starts as compared to his 5.92 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in seven starts on the road. Colorado has played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total with Sandoval their starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175.

FINAL TAKE: The Angels rank 21st and 19th in MLB since May 1st on the road against left-handed starting pitchers in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. The Rockies rank 29th and 30th in MLB since May 1st at home against left-handed starting pitchers in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. 8* MLB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (925) and the Colorado Rockies (926) listing both starting pitchers Patrick Sandoval and Kyle Freeland. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (51) and the Vegas Golden Knights (52) in Game Five of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (55-40-7) has lost four of their last five games after their 3-2 loss to the Golden Knights on Saturday. Vegas (66-26-11) has won four of their last five games while taking a 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After giving up 12 combined goals in the first two games in this series, head coach Paul Maurice changed the Panthers’ approach in this series by being willing to grind out lower-scoring games. They were able to bully Toronto and Carolina — but Vegas is well-versed in playing heavy hockey so these tactics are old hat to them. Florida only peppered the Golden Knights’ goaltender Adin Hill with 23 shots in Game Three on Thursday. They did increase the pressure in Game Four with 31 shot attempts — but the quality was not quite the same as they generated only 2.49 expected goals (xG) despite this increased activity. They topped that number in Game Three with 2.9 xG despite only 23 shots. Florida has not scored more than two games in regulation time in all four games in this series. The Panthers are losing in the special teams battle to the Golden Knights. Vegas has scored six goals on the power play in this series — but after scoring both their goals on the Power Play in Game Three, they did not allow a Power Play goal in Game Four. The formula for success for the Panthers has become clear: stop trying to out-muscle the Golden Knights, settle for lower-scoring games, and make it a battle between Sergei Bobrovsky and Hill. While this strategy did not produce a victory on Saturday, Florida was in a position to force overtime late in the game. Bobrovsky had his best two games in this series in Games Three and Four as he stopped 53 of the 58 shots he faced for a .914 save percentage. The two-time Vezina Trophy winner had +1.71 Goals-Saved-Above-Expectation (GSAx) in Game Three before registering a +0.7 GSAx mark on Saturday. While it is too much to ask for Bobrovsky to reproduce the .954 save percentage he enjoyed against the Maple Leafs and Hurricanes, the Florida approach has shifted to play with less aggression with more attention to defense to help him out -- and the blue line is doing a better jon in not screening Bobrovsky after this being a big problem in the first two games of this series. The message from Maurice will be to continue to take fewer penalties — and take their chances that Bobrovsky outplays Hill. Vegas entered this series seeming to struggle with their Power Play Kill Unit in the postseason — but much of that is due to having to deal with the historically elite power play of the Edmonton Oilers this season. Connor McDavid and company scored 14 power-play goals in 23 chances in the Western Conference Semifinals. The Golden Knights have been perfect in this series by thwarting the Panthers in all 13 of their power play chances. Hill remains steady after stopping 29 of the 31 shots he faced with some outstanding saves along the way. He posted a +0.49 Goals Saved Above Expectation mark (GSAx) in Game Four. I do not see a sudden blow-up coming from Hill since he is protected by head coach Bruce Cassidy’s sophisticated defensive system which is a passive version of the old New Jersey Devils’ 1-4 scheme. Cassidy is happy to have his team counter-attack with all their scoring talent.

FINAL TAKE:  The Golden Knights have played 23 of their last 36 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series. 10* NHL Florida-Vegas TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (51) and the Vegas Golden Knights (52). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (521) and the Denver Nuggets (522) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (58-48) has lost six of their last eight games after their 108-95 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Denver (68-33) has won nine of their last ten games while taking a 3-1 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have had an underrated defense for much of the season — and they are demonstrating this aspect of their game now after holding the Heat to just 42.4% shooting which has resulted in 98.3 Points-Per-Game. Miami has not shot better than 32% from behind the arc in three of the four games in the NBA Finals. Denver has made at least 48.2% of their shots in five straight games since only making 43.8% of their shots in Game Two of the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets have also played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Denver returns home to Bell Arena where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total. Miami has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after failing to score 100 or more points in their last game. The Heat have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by ten or more points at home.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home. 10* NBA Miami-Denver ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (521) and the Denver Nuggets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the New York Yankees (916) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Clarke Schmidt. THE SITUATION: Boston (32-33) has lost three of their last four games — and six of their last eight — after a 3-1 loss on the road against the Yankees on Saturday. New York (38-28) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees lineup is slumping without Aaron Judge who is on the injured list with a toe injury. New York is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .196 Batting Average, a .250 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .661 during that span. They have not scored more than three runs in their last three games — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. They beat the Red Sox by a 3-2 score in Game One on Friday — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where neither team scored more than three runs. They have also played 4 straight Unders after winning their previous game. The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total at home when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. Additionally, the Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Schmidt gets the ball looking to build on his 2-6 record with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 13 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.88 and 3.93 moving forward. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.48 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .305 in five starts. Schmidt has a 3.76 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eight starts at night — and New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Schmidt as their starting pitcher in a night game. He faces a Mets team that has played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston is scoring only 2.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 Batting Average, a .307 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .658. They have not scored more than three runs in four straight games and in seven of their last eight contests. The Red Sox have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when priced as an underdog up to +150. They counter with Bello who has a 3-4 record with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in nine starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.85 and 3.77 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.57 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in three starts as compared to his 4.23 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .284 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home. Boston has played 5 straight Unders on the road with Bello pitching with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. The Red Sox have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: Boston ranks 23rd in MLB in both weighted On Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers since May 1st. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the New York Yankees (916) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Clarke Schmidt. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (49) and the Florida Panthers (50) in Game Four of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (65-26-11) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 3-2 loss on the road against the Panthers on Thursday. Florida (55-39-7) ended their two-game losing streak to win their first game in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After giving up 12 combined goals in the first two games in this series, head coach Paul Maurice changed the Panthers’ approach in this series by being willing to grind out a lower-scoring game. Florida only peppered the Golden Knights’ goaltender Adin Hill with 23 shots. But the Panthers are losing in the special teams battle in this series. Vegas has scored six goals on the power play in this series while converting 35.3% of the time against Florida when they have the man advantage. Both their goals on Thursday were on the power play. The formula for success for the Panthers has become clear: stop trying to out-muscle the Golden Knights, settle for lower-scoring games, and make it a battle between Sergei Bobrovsky and Hill. Florida was able to bully Toronto and Carolina — but Vegas is well-versed in playing heavy hockey so these tactics are old hat to them. Bobrovsky had his best game in this series as he stopped 25 of the 27 shots he faced. The two-time Vezina Trophy winner had +1.71 Goals-Saved-Above-Expectation in Game Three. While it is too much to ask for Bobrovsky to reproduce the .954 save percentage he enjoyed against the Maple Leafs and Hurricanes, the Florida approach has shifted to play with less aggression with more attention to defense to help him out. Vegas only managed 1.62 expected goals when playing at five-on-five even strength. Now the message from Maurice is to take fewer penalties. The Panthers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Furthermore, Florida has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when hosting the Golden Knights. Vegas entered this series seeming to struggle with their Power Play Kill Unit in the postseason — but much of that is due to having to deal with the historically elite power play of the Edmonton Oilers this season. Connor McDavid and company scored 14 power-play goals in 23 chances in the Western Conference Semifinals. The Golden Knights have been perfect in this series by thwarting the Panthers in all 12 of their power play chances. Hill played his worst game in this series by allowing three goals — but he did not play badly, per se, as he posted a -0.1 GSAx indicating he was about average. I do not see a sudden blow-up coming from Hill since he is protected by head coach Bruce Cassidy’s sophisticated defensive system which is a passive version of the old New Jersey Devils’ 1-4 scheme. Cassidy is happy to have his team counter-attack with all their scoring talent. We had the Over in Game Three as I expected Florida to come out very aggressive (and perhaps the early injury to Matthew Tkachuk compelled them to change tactics). But after attempting 35 and 31 shots in the first two games of this series, the Panthers only took those 23 shots on Thursday including the game-winner in overtime. On the other hand, the 27 shots Vegas had in Game Three was their lowest number in the series. The Golden Knights have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 22 of their last 35 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series — and they have played 10 of their last 14 Game Fours in a series Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Vegas has played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss by just one goal to their opponent. 25* NHL Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (49) and the Florida Panthers (50). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (67-33) has won eight of their last nine games after their 109-94 victory on the road against the Heat as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Miami (58-47) has lost five of their last seven games to fall behind in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Michael Malone had his team’s attention after their upset loss at home in Game Two — and he got a much better effort on defense in Game Three. Denver limited the Heat to only 25 uncontested shots from beyond the arc after giving 30 uncontested 3-pointers in both Game One and Game Two. The Nuggets’ defense has been underrated for much of the season — especially when they are dialed in which they should continue to be tonight. They are holding Miami to just 41% shooting in this series — and the Heat’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 111.1 in this series is far below the 118.3 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency they posted against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. Denver has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while Denver has made at least 50.2% of their shots in each game in this series, they have then played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. This is one of the rare games in the NBA Finals where the teams only get one day between games — and the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Miami has played 4 straight Unders when playing with one day of rest. The Heat need to slow the pace of play down — their Game Two victory was the only game in this series that had less than 90 possessions. Look for Hayward Highsmith to play more tonight to help with size and the physicality that Erik Spoelstra indicated his team lacked on Wednesday after they got outrebounded by a 58 to 33 margin. Denver pulled down 36.1% of their missed shots — so Miami needs to grab more defensive rebounds. But Highsmith is a liability on offense as he is just a career 33% shooter from behind the arc. The Heat have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a playoff loss in the last two postseasons. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points. Furthermore, Miami has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. The Heat have also played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. The Heat have also played 5 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 20 or more rebounds in their last contest. 25* NBA Friday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (47) and the Florida Panthers (48) in Game Three of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (65-26-10) has won eight of their last ten games after their 7-2 victory at home against the Panthers on Monday. Florida (54-38-8) has lost two games in a row to fall behind 2-0 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Panthers peppered the Golden Knights goaltender Adin Hill with 31 shots after registering 35 shots in Game One but they have only scored four goals. They have yet to score on the Power Play despite the Golden Knights entering this series with a Power Play Kill percentage of just 63%. Florida reached the Stanley Cup Finals with a physical style of play that neutralized Boston before wearing down Toronto and Carolina. This approach has not worked against Vegas. Matthew Tkachuk is spending too much time trying to be a tough guy rather than being a scorer. He scored nine goals in the first three rounds and added 12 assists in those sixteen games while only getting called for 24 penalty minutes. But in this series, Tkachuk has 36 penalty minutes already with three ten-minute misconduct penalties. He has scored only one goal in this series. Panthers head coach Paul Maurice will make plenty of changes after his team has been outscored by eight goals in this series. Top amongst these changes will be to get away from the extra-curricular stuff. The Golden Knights have scored four power-play goals in this series — and they are scoring on 36.4% of their power-play chances in the first two games. This has to change. Florida has an expected Goals-For percentage of 52.11 playing at even strength five-on-five in this series. The Panthers will stay play physical — but the attempts to goad and intimidate Vegas will be reined in since it has backfired. Returning home will also allow Maurice to get Tkachuk playing against either the Jack Eichel/Jonathan Marchessault line or the Mark Stone line — and that should lead to plenty of scoring opportunities for both sides. Golden Knights head coach Bruce Cassidy likes to use the William Karlsson line to defend the opposing team’s top line — Vegas was able to slow down Edmonton’s superstar forwards Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl with Karlsson. But it is now Maurice rather than Cassidy who has the advantage of the last line change with this series moving to Florida. The Panthers have played 18 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and the Over is 8-1-2 in their last 10 games after a loss by three or more goals. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a loss by two or more goals in their last game. Additionally, Florida has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two goals. The Over is 12-4-2 in their last 17 games after allowing five or more goals in their last contest. The Panthers have played 5 straight Overs when trailing in the series. Vegas was able to solve the Sergei Bobrovsky riddle by scoring another four times against him before he got pulled at the 7:10 minute mark of the season period. As mentioned above, Florida plays a physical game that frustrated their Eastern Conference rivals in the postseason. The Bruins are comfortable with that style of play — and that was a coin-flip series. But is fair to say that Toronto and Carolina emphasize speed over size — and the Panthers were able to control the middle of the ice in front of Bobrovsky. The Golden Knights present a different problem since they are built to compete against other physical teams in the Pacific Division that favor a “heavy” style of play. The Vegas players are finding room in front of Bobrovsky to screen his vision against their sharpshooters on the outside. Marchessault has an incredible 26.1% scoring percentage on his shots over his last 12 games. The 11-day layover after the Eastern Conference Finals may have cooled him off — or it is the Golden Knights' skill in screening him that has changed things. He has a 5.52 Goals-Against-Average with a .826 save percentage in this series. The +19.7 Goals Saved Above Expectation mark he entered this series in was unsustainable — but Vegas presents a similar threat as did Boston in the opening round. Remember, the Bruins scored 27 goals in that seven-game series while tallying at least three goals in each game. Bobrovsky only started standing on his head when facing the smaller Maple Leafs in the next round. Florida beat the President’s Trophy winner by scoring 26 goals against the Bruins including 15 goals in the final three games after trailing 3-1 in that series. Vegas goalie Adin Hill has faced at least 30 shots in eight of his last ten games — so the Regression Gods may be calling soon after facing so much pressure. The Golden Knights have scored 18 goals in their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in two straight games. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last contest. Vegas played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Florida has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road by three or more goals. 25* NHL Thursday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (47) and the Florida Panthers (48). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (66-33) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 111-108 upset loss at home against the Heat as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (58-46) has won two of their last three games while evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets lost Game Two despite making 52.0% of their shots from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But it is the play on defense that garnered most of head coach Michael Malone who described his team’s effort on Sunday as the “least disciplined” game that they played in the postseason. Miami’s 48.7% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage that Denver allowed in their last five games. The Nuggets made 50.4% of their shots in Game One on Thursday — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Despite these good shooting numbers, the Heat are frustrating Denver with the various zone defense looks. In the 37 possessions in this series when Miami has deployed a zone, the Nuggets have scored only 39 points. For comparison's sake, while Denver has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 118.8 when playing at home in the postseason, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plummeted to just 105.4 in their two games at home against the Heat when playing against this zone defense. The Heat are also implementing a 21st-century version of the Jordan Rules against Nikola Jokic — the defensive scheme used by the Detroit Pistons to stymie the Michael Jordan Bulls’ teams. The idea is that the superstar is going to get his points no matter what — but if the star’s teammates are not contributing, then the efforts of the superstar alone will not be enough to win. Head coach Erik Spoelstra went big in Game Two by reinserting Kevin Love into the starting lineup to defend Aaron Gordon. This move allows Jimmy Butler to defend Jamal Murray in an attempt to “cut the head off the snake” in the words of Steve Kerr when analyzing Game Two. Jokic scored 41 points in Game Two — but he only assisted on four other baskets on 11 potential assists. In Game One, Jokic had 14 assists on 17 potential assists. Now the Nuggets go on the road where their scoring drops by 2.7 Points-Per-Game versus their season average. While Denver knows that they need their supporting cast to shoot more and get into a better rhythm, they are more comfortable scoring when playing at home. Miami has also been successful in slowing the pace that Denver prefers to play at. This series is averaging 89.75 adjusted possessions per game with the Nuggets not getting out in transition as much — a big drop from the 96.33 adjusted possessions per game that they were averaging in their first three playoff series this postseason. Miami has played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning their previous game by three points or less. They return home to play for the first time since May 27th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after being on the road for seven or more days. The Heat have also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to three points. Miami has an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 106.7 when playing at home in these playoffs — as compared to their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 115.6 on the road this postseason. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games in the NBA Finals Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in a tied series. Denver has played 13 of their last 19 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Wednesday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (45) and the Vegas Golden Knights (46) in Game Two of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (54-38-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 5-2 loss on the road to the Golden Knights on Saturday. Vegas (64-26-10) has won seven of their last nine games while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Panthers peppered the Golden Knights goaltender Adin Hill with 35 shots — and they were unlucky with three of their shots hitting the goal post. After failing to score on their three power play opportunities and managing only three combined shots in those situations, Florida should be focused on being more aggressive tonight. The Panthers have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and the Over is 7-1-2 in their last 10 games after a loss by three or more goals. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss by two or more goals in their last game. Additionally, Florida has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two goals. The Over is 11-4-2 in their last 17 games after allowing five or more goals in their last contest. The Panthers have played 4 straight Overs when trailing in the series. Vegas was able to solve the Sergei Bobrovsky riddle by scoring four times against him (the final goal was an empty-netter). Florida plays a physical game that frustrated their Eastern Conference rivals in the postseason. The Bruins are comfortable with that style of play — and that was a coin-flip series. But is fair to say that Toronto and Carolina emphasize speed over size — and the Panthers were able to control the middle of the ice in front of Bobrovsky. The Golden Knights present a different problem since they are built to compete against other physical teams in the Pacific Division that favor a “heavy” style of play. Vegas was able to have players find room in front of Bobrovsky to screen his vision against their sharpshooters on the outside. Despite giving up the most goals in the playoffs since Game Six against the Bruins, it would not be fair to conclude that Bobrovsky had a bad game. He posted a +0.22 Goals Saved Above Expectation in Game One. The +19.7 GSAx mark he entered this series in was unsustainable — but Vegas presents a similar threat as did Boston in the opening round. Remember, the Bruins scored 27 goals in that seven-game series while tallying at least three goals in each game. Bobrovsky only started standing on his head when facing the smaller Maple Leafs in the next round. Florida beat the President’s Trophy winner by scoring 26 goals against the Bruins including 15 goals in the final three games after trailing 3-1 in that series. Hill has faced at least 30 shots in seven of his last nines games — so the Regression Gods may be calling soon after facing so much pressure. The Golden Knights have scored 11 goals in their last two games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in two straight games. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last contest. Vegas played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games. At home at T-Mobile Arena, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. And in their last 6 opportunities to host the Panthers, 5 of these games finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Florida has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road by three or more goals. 25* NHL Monday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (45) and the Vegas Golden Knights (46). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-46) looks to rebound from their 104-93 loss on the road against the Nuggets as a 9-point underdog on Thursday. Denver (66-32) has won seven games in a row while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams should shoot better — especially from 3-point range. The Heat were ice cold in the first half on Thursday as they missed 13 of their last 17 shots from behind the arc while going into halftime with just 22 points. Miami was sluggish. We can blame their struggles in their adjustment to the high altitude in Denver. We can blame the team’s decision to sacrifice a good night’s sleep on Monday after they won their Game Seven in Boston against the Celtics. The conventional wisdom is that players recover faster if they stay over to get a good night’s sleep rather than get on an airplane and arrive in a new city that evening. But the decision sets up Miami better for Game Two since it provided them another ten hours in the altitude to help their acclimation. Sunday night’s game will be the team’s sixth day in Denver — so they should be fine. The Heat shot better in the second half — they made 15 of their 22 shots (68%) from 3-point range. While it may be too much to ask for Miami to make 39.0% of their 3-pointers in Game Two as they did in getting through the Eastern Conference side of the playoff bracket, they should be more effective than their 19 of 39 shooting (33%) from behind the arc on Thursday. And the Heat will be fully committed to being more aggressive in attacking the rim rather than settling for midrange jump shots — they only attempted two free throws as a team in Game One. Miami has played 6 straight second games in a playoff series Over the Total. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days' rest. The Heat have now played five straight Unders while not giving up more than 104 points in three straight games — but this situation sets up to be a higher-scoring contest. Miami have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Heat have played 41 of their last 64 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing four or more Unders in a row. Miami has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Denver left plenty of points on the table themselves in Game One despite making 50.6% of their shots. They only scored 45 points in the second half while cruising to the victory. They only made 8 of their 27 shots (30%) from behind the arc. The Nuggets make 39.1% of their 3-pointers when playing at home in their Ball Arena. Denver has a significant size edge against the Heat — and it seems like they can take advantage of this whenever they please to do so. They opened Game One by scoring 18 of their first 24 points inside the paint. Aaron Gordon scored 12 points in the first quarter dominating over the smaller Gabe Vincent guarding him. Nikola Jokic only took one shot in the first quarter — but he assisted on six buckets. Denver went into the fourth quarter with a 21-point lead with Jokic scoring or assisting on 69 of their 84 points. In the end, Jokic scored 27 points on just 12 shots from the field. The Nuggets did not really need to lean on the Joker in Game One — but it does not look like Miami has an answer for him when Denver needs a basket. Denver is still rested after getting a ten-day break after completing their four-game sweep with the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the third time in ten days. Furthermore, Denver has played 33 of their last 52 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 13 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has lost all three of their games with the Nuggets this season — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total when playing with double revenge and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (979) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (980) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Bobby Miller. THE SITUATION: New York (34-25) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 6-3 victory against the Dodgers yesterday. Los Angeles (35-23) has lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They give the ball to German who has a 3-3 record with a 3.98 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 10 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.11 and 4.8 moving forward. And while the right-hander has a 3.19 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .155 in five starts at home, those numbers rise to a 5.01 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .212 in his five starts on the road. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 straight Overs against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. New York has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game. They counter with Miller who is making his third career MLB start after posting a 2-0 record with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in his first two games. The sabermetrics indicate he is overachieving with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.70 and 3.34 moving forward. The Dodgers have played 4 straight Overs at home — and in their last 24 games against teams with a winning record, the game finished Over the Total 18 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 12-3-1 in the Yankees’ last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 8* MLB Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (979) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (980). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-45) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 103-84 victory as a 7.5-point underdog at Boston in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. Denver (65-32) has won six games in a row after completing their four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers after a 113-111 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog on May 22nd.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets will be ready and rested for this opening contest with the benefit of nine full days of rest after closing out their series with the Lakers. Denver will likely push the pace to challenge a Heat team that only had two full days of rest before tonight’s game. As it is, the Nuggets have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with three or more days of rest. Denver has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 121.0 in the postseason. And in their last two games against Miami in the regular season, they posted Adjusted Offensive Efficiency marks of 123 and 124 despite Nikola Jokic playing only 70 of the 96 minutes in those two games. Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has a dilemma regarding how to defend Jokic: does he deploy Bam Adebayo against him and risk his big man getting into foul trouble or does he use bench players like Cody Zeller, Kevin Love (oy), or Haywood Highsmith to attempt to guard him and leave Adebayo as a rim protector? It may take Spoelstra a game to find the best answer to the Jokic problem. And while Miami likes to deploy zone defenses, Jokic crushes zone defenses with his one-on-one skills along with passing skills. They have played 28 of their last 43 games at home Over the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Miami played their best defensive game in their last seven games by holding the Celtics to just 39.0% shooting on Monday. The Heat have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits. Miami has also played 4 straight Overs when playing with two days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight games against each other Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Denver. The Nuggets swept both regular-season games against the Heat this season — and Miami has played 24 of their last 33 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Seattle Mariners (970) listing both starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and George Kirby. THE SITUATION: New York (34-23) has won four games in a row after their 10-2 victory in the second game of this series. Seattle (28-27) has lost two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have scored 30 runs in their last three games — scoring 10 times in each of those contests. They have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. Schmidt gets the start looking to build on his 2-5 record with a 5.58 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in 11 starts. But while the right-hander has a 4.68 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in seven starts at home, those numbers rise to a 7.27 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .347 in four starts on the road. New York has played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total against teams with a winning record. After a slow start to the season, the Mariners rank 11th and 8th this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers. Seattle has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss by eight or more runs. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs. They counter with Kirby who has a 5-4 record with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 10 starts. But while the right-hander has a 2.34 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .233 in five starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.76 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .284 in five starts at home. He faces a hot-hitting Yankees lineup that ranks 3rd and 2nd in MLB on the road against right-handed pitching this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Over go 5-2-1 in their last 8 meetings — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games when playing in Seattle. 8* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Seattle Mariners (970) listing both starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and George Kirby. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-45) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 104-103 loss at home to the Heat as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.  Boston (68-33) hosts this Game Seven after rallying from their 3-0 series deficit.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The oddsmakers have lowered the Total for this final contest by six points to account for the historical Game Seven slide in points scored. Even after that, the evidence is strong that this game will finish Under the Total. There were a combined 63 free throw attempts taken in Game Six — but that number should be lower tonight with the referees not wanting to decide the game by unnecessarily placing a key player into foul trouble. Miami only made 35.5% of their shots on Saturday — but that number was still propped up by them naming 14 of their 30 shots (47%) from behind the arc. While they should make more than 36% of their shots tonight, they may not reach their effective field goal percentage of 50.5% from Game Six given the likely regression in 3-point shooting. Jimmy Butler seems slowed by a bad ankle. After scoring 35 and 27 points in Games One and Two, he has only averaged 20.8 Points-Per-Game on 37% shooting in the last four games in this series. The Heat did get Gabe Vincent back on Saturday after he missed Game Five with his twisted ankle, but he missed 9 of 12 shots from inside the arc while showing little lift with his feet. Bam Adebayo has not scored more than 17 points since Game Two while averaging just 12.5 PPG after scoring 21 PPG in the first two games of this series. Kyle Lowry has gone MIA with just 27 combined points since halftime of Game Two. Miami has played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in potential closeout playoff games. Boston only made 7 of their 35 shots (20%) of their 3-pointers on Saturday — but they did nail 27 of their 43 shots (62.8%) from inside the arc. So, like Miami, while the Celtics should make more 3s tonight, they may very well underperform their effective field goal percentage of 52.6% in that game. Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the last three games facing the brink of elimination. They have held the Heat to just 43.0% shooting in the last three games which has resulted in only 99.7 PPG. The Celtics have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they did not cover the point spread. They have also played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, Boston has played 10 straight Unders in potential elimination games including all five this postseason. The Celtics have also played 8 of their last 11 Game Sevens Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The tempo of this series has slowed dramatically. The first four games of this series averaged 96.5 adjusted possessions per game with Game Four seeing 94.3 adjusted possessions per game. Games Five and Six have then averaged just 88.8 adjusted possessions per game with Game Five seeing 84.4 adjusted possessions and Game Six totaling 89.4 adjusted possessions. With these teams tiring and more banged up than they were a week ago, expect another slow game with shaky shooting from both sides. 25* NBA Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (29) and the Dallas Stars (30) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (62-26-10) has lost the last two games in this series after their 4-2 loss at home to the Stars on Saturday. Dallas (56-26-18) now trails by a 3-2 margin in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Adin Hill had not allowed more than three goals in six straight games before Saturday. Hill still has a 2.30 Goals-Against-Average in his ten playoff games this year with a .932 save percentage — and he has +6.75 Goals Saved Above Expectation this postseason. Coming off his three previous losses in these playoffs, Hill has a .925 save percentage in the next game. Vegas has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss by two or more goals. They went into the third period with the game tied before the Stars scored two unanswered goals — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing more than one goal in the third period of their last game. They have also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after allowing four or more goals in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. And in their last 44 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total, Dallas has played 26 of these games Under the Total. Dallas suddenly has a hot goaltender between the pipes with Jake Oettinger stopping 27 of the 29 shots he faced on Saturday. After getting benched after seven minutes in the first period of Game Three, Oettinger has allowed only four goals in the last two games with a .941 save percentage and a 1.95 Goals-Against-Average. The Stars have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games. They have played 20 of their last 31 home games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games on home ice.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 straight Unders when playing in Dallas. 25* NHL Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (29) and the Dallas Stars (30). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200025) and Leeds United (200026). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W17-D6-L14) closes out their season coming off a 3-1 loss to Brentford last Saturday. Leeds United (W7-D10-L20) is winless in their last eight matches after a 3-1 loss at West Ham United on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This should be a wild affair with both teams having things still at stake. Tottenham needs a win to qualify for European competition next season — although they can still qualify with a draw and some help). The Hotspurs are not playing well under new manager Ryan Mason. They are winless in their last nine matches on the road. They have conceded five combined goals in their last five matches with shaky play from their backline. They are also playing without their world-class keeper Hugo Lloris — Fraser Forster is a downgrade at the position. Tottenham has only one clean sheet in their last 11 contests across all competitions. But they have scored in 11 of their last 12 matches in the English Premier League. With this potentially being Harry Kane’s last match with the team given the rumors that he will move on in the summer transfer window, he will be motivated to go out with a bang for his longtime club. He has a very appetizing opponent in Leeds United who are the worst defensive side in the EPL. The Whites have allowed 74 goals this season, the most in the league. More than 33% of the shots they are giving up are on target — so Kane and company should have plenty of opportunities to pad their stats. Leeds has allowed two or more goals in four straight matches and seven of their last eight contests. They have not generated a clean sheet in 14 straight matches. But the Whites have scored a healthy 47 times with their aggressive style of play in the EPL — and they have scored in 12 of their last 13 matches. Leeds have seen four or more combined goals scored in three of their last four matches. And they will be playing with desperation this morning since they must win this match to avoid relegation while getting some help in the results from some other matches.

FINAL TAKE: The final day in the EPL tends to see higher-scoring matches — and that will likely be the case in this one with two struggling defensive sides engaged in a contest with both teams needing to get a win. The reverse fixture between these teams resulted in a 4-3 win for Tottenham at home on November 12th. 25* English Premier League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200025) and Leeds United (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (67-33) extended this series at least for another game with their 110-97 victory as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. Miami (56-44) still holds a 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite both teams shooting over 50% from the field, Game Five finished Under the Total. The tempo of this series is slowing. In victory, the Celtics only took 79 shots which were tied for their series low in Game Two — and they scored only 105 points in that game after making 47% of their shots. Boston made 16 of their 39 shots from behind the arc for a 41% shooting percentage. After shooting under 35% from 3-point range in Games One through Three, the Celtics have nailed more than 40% of their 3-pointers in the last two games. Look for the clip to drop tonight given the pressure of a Game Six — and Boston makes 37.6% of their 3-pointers on the road this season. The Celtics have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road after winning two games in a row. Additionally, Boston has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games on the road Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 33 of their last 52 road games Under the Total when favored by up to three points. Miami is finding it difficult to score since Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the face of potential elimination. The Heat have only attempted 78 shots in each of their last two games after averaging 86 shots per game in the first three games of this series with at least 81 shots in each of their three victories — so their tempo has slowed. The Celtics are doing a better job of moving Miami off the 3-point line as they have made only 17 of their 55 shots from behind the arc (31%) in the last two games after nailing 47 of 93 of their 3-pointers (51%) in the first three games of this series. Boston is also not fouling as much. After getting to the free throw line at least 19 times in the first four games of the series, the Heat only had 10 free throw attempts on Thursday. Miami scored only 97 points in Game Five despite making 51.3% of their shots. The Heat have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. After Miami has allowed the Celtics to shoot 51.2% and 50.6% from the field in the last two games, the Heat should increase their defensive intensity in this critical Game Six.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (21) and the Vegas Golden Knights (22) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (55-26-18) snapped their three-game losing streak in this series with a 3-2 victory in overtime at home on Thursday. Vegas (62-25-10) had their five-game winning streak snapped with the loss but still owns a 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite the loss, the Golden Knights continue to get great goaltending from Adin Hill who stopped 39 of 42 shots on Thursday. Hill had +1.81 Goals Saved Above Expectation in Game Four -- giving him an impressive +7.81 GSAx mark in the postseason. He has won six of his eight postseason starts with a 2.07 Goals-Against-Average and a .938 save percentage. Home ice advantage is of particular importance tonight for head coach Bruce Cassidy given the suspension of the Stars captain Jamie Benn. Dallas only has two formidable scoring lines with Benn serving the second game of his two-game suspension and right wing Evgenii Dadonov out with an injury — they both anchored the third line. The home team gets the final shift change which will help ensure Cassidy gets his preferred blue-line pairings against the Stars' top-two lines while getting his choice as to when he wants his William Karlsson forward line on the ice to deploy his elite defensive skills. Vegas has played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Finals. And in their last 12 playoff games when leading in the series, the Golden Knights have played 8 of these games Under the Total. Dallas has lost four of their last six games — but they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. The last three games in this series finished Under the Total — and the Stars have played 19 of their last 30 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. Dallas goes back on the road where they have played a decisive 43 of their last 67 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 5-2-1 in the last 8 games when playing in Las Vegas. 8* NHL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (21) and the Vegas Golden Knights (22). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (22-29) has won two of their last three games after their 9-0 victory in the opening game of this three-game series. Chicago (22-28) has lost two straight games and four of their last six contests with that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one run. Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road. Williamson gets the ball to make his third career professional start after carrying an 0-0 record with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in his first two starts. After a promising first start on the road against Colorado, the left-hander gave up for earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work against St. Louis on Sunday. He issued four walks in that effort which continued his problems of command that manifested in his minor league stints. In Triple-A last season, he had a 1.63 WHIP while averaging 5.3 walks per nine innings. In his 34 innings in Triple-A this season, he continued that 5.3 bases-on-balls per nine-inning rate while posting a 1.88 WHIP. He faces a Cubs team that scores 6.3 Runs-Per-Game this season against left-handed pitchers with a .303 Batting Average, a .367 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .859. With the recently called-up Christopher Morel on fire and Seiya Suzuki finally heating up, Chicago has two red-hot hitters on the right side of the plate — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 8-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 10 games after a loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by four or more runs. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring two runs or less — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game. The Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games at home at Wrigley Field — and the Cubs have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with the Total in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Taillon who has an 0-3 record with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.73 in seven starts. The right-hander is amidst a terrible slump having allowed 19 earned runs in just 12 2/3 innings in his last four starts. He has only struck out 11 batters during that span while issuing six walks. And while Taillon has a 7.80 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .290 in four road starts, those numbers are even worse at home where has been saddled with an 8.49 ERA, a 1.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .340 in three starts. Taillon’s teams have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when he is pitching in May.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds are scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .286 Batting Average, a .350 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .771. These two teams have played 4 straight Overs against each other. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the Boston Celtics (550) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-43) looks to bounce back from their 116-99 upset loss at home to the Celtics as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (66-33) snapped their three-game losing streak to stave off elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat played their worst defensive game in their last three contests by allowing the Celtics to make 51.2% of their shots. To be fair to Miami, Boston did finally overachieve with their shooting relative to league expectations. Given the shot quality statistics, the Celtics would have typically scored 107 points — so they exceeded that baseline by nine points. The Heat have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss by 10 or more points. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after a game where they did not score more than 100 points. They have also played 20 of their last 33 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last contest. Point guard Gabe Vincent has been ruled out for tonight’s game after he twisted his ankle in Tuesday’s game. Miami will miss his scoring as he has averaged 17.5 Points-Per-Game in this series. Look for head coach Erik Spoelstra to slow things down tonight and make it a Jimmy Butler game where perhaps they can steal yet another playoff game in the fourth quarter. If that Spoelstra plan fails, then the Heat will probably call off the proverbial dogs and conserve their energies for Game Six back at home — and that will help our Under play (in the end). Miami has played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in potential closeout games. Boston has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road by double-digits. The Celtics have also played 8 straight playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.

FINAL TAKE: The Heat have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home to their opponent. 8* NBA Miami-Boston TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the Boston Celtics (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (17) and the Dallas Stars (18) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (62-25-9) has won five games in a row after their 4-0 shutout victory on the road against the Stars on Tuesday. Dallas (54-26-18) has lost three games in a row to fall behind 0-3 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Pete DeBoer pulled goalie Jake Oettinger after he gave up a third goal on just five shots early in the first period on Tuesday. Oettinger usually plays well after a loss. He had a 22-1-3 record in the regular season coming off a loss with a .933 save percentage — and he has a .913 save percentage coming off a loss in these playoffs. The Stars have played 26 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Dallas’ attack will be undermanned tonight with Jamie Benn suspended for the next two games and Evgeni Dadonov doubtful with a lower-body injury. That decimates two-thirds of the Stars’ third forward line. Dadonov has four goals and six assists in 16 playoff games this season. But it is the loss of their captain Benn who is not taking accountability for his terrible play on Tuesday as he claimed that he regretted using his stick to brace his fall that simply inadvertently chocked Mark Stone’s neck on the ice. Benn scored 33 goals and added 45 assists in the regular season. He has three goals and eight assists in this postseason — and he plays on the Dallas power play. The last two games in this series have finished Under the Total — and the Stars have played 37 of their last 60 home games Under the Total after playing two Unders in a row. The Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 games at home. Furthermore, the Under is 8-1-2 in Dallas’ last 11 games in the Western Conference Finals — and the Under is 18-6-2 in their last 26 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Vegas has won 16 of their last 21 games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning 15 or more of their last 21 games. The Golden Knights have scored three or more goals in five straight games — but they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in five straight games. They are getting great goaltending from Adin Hill who stopped all 34 of the shots he faced on Tuesday. He is playing with tremendous confidence after frustrating the Edmonton Oilers last round with their dynamic scorers Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Hill has a 1.96 Goals-Against-Average with a .940 save percentage in seven games in these playoffs. He has generated +6.0 Goals Saved Above Expectation in the postseason. He has been helped by an aggressive Vegas defense that has blocked 266 shots in the playoffs, the second-most in the postseason. The Golden Knights have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Finals — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 16-5-2 in the last 23 meetings between these two teams — and they have played 7 straight Unders when playing in Dallas. The Stars have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home by three or more goals. 25* NHL Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (17) and the Dallas Stars (18). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (15) and the Florida Panthers (16) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (53-37-7) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 1-0 victory at home against the Hurricanes on Monday. Carolina (59-25-12) has lost three in a row to fall behind in this series by a 3-0 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Panthers’ goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is as hot as a goaltender can be right now. He enters this game with 67 straight saves after his shutout in Game Three. He has stopped 69 of 70 shots in the last two games — and he has stopped 132 of the 135 shots he has faced in this series. In his last four games, Bobrovsky has a 0.89 Goals-Against-Average and a .973 save percentage. While these numbers are not sustainable, the visit from the Regression Gods is not likely to see a radical change. While Bobrovsky struggled in the regular season, we are talking about a two-time Vezina Trophy winner. The veteran has extended stretches in his career when he was playing at a very high level. He has a .935 save percentage in the playoffs with +19.5 Goals Saved Above Expectation. And Bobrovksy has been helped by head coach Paul Maurice’s style of play with the emphasis on forechecking generating better defensive play in the final month of the regular season that has carried over into the playoffs. Florida has played 7 straight Unders after winning their previous game — and they have played 7 straight Unders after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Additionally, the Panthers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing four or more Unders in a row. And in their last 6 playoff games when leading in the series, Florida has played 6 straight Unders. In the Game Fours in the previous series against Boston and Toronto, the Panthers only gave up three combined goals. While Bobrovsky’s save streak will likely be snapped tonight, our Under play will be helped by the strong play of the Hurricanes’ goalie Frederick Andersen. It’s not like Florida has evoked memories of the 1980s Wayne Gretzky Edmonton Oilers teams. They have only scored six goals in the first three games in this series — and that includes four overtime periods. In his seven playoff games this postseason, Andersen has a 1.58 GAA and a .937 save percentage. Carolina is an excellent defensive team that led the NHL in expected Goals Allowed (xGA) since the Christmas break. They are limiting the Panthers to just 19.66 shots per game per 60 minutes and 2.17 xGA per 60 minutes in this series. The Hurricanes have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total on the road after losing their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss by just one goal. They have played 5 straight Unders after losing three games in a row. They have also played 5 straight Unders in the Eastern Conference Finals.

FINAL TAKE: Perhaps this is the game where both teams score two goals before someone takes a 3-2 lead which is followed up by either an empty-netter or a goal that forces overtime. But with both teams playing so tightly disciplined in a physical series with elite goaltending, I do not expect the tone of Game Four to dramatically change (especially for Florida). I do think there will be more power play chances tonight — but the Hurricanes have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by just one goal. If this was a regular season game, I might be more tempted by the contrarian Over play — but since this is the fourth straight playoff game between these two teams, the style and tempos should remain the same. Frankly, we are getting a gift with the Total not dropping to 5. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (15) and the Florida Panthers (16). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Bryce Elder. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (31-19) has won the first two games in this series after their 8-1 victory on the road on Tuesday. Atlanta (29-19) has lost three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have scored 16 runs in the first two games in this series — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning their previous game. Los Angeles has also played 4 straight Overs when playing on the road. Gonsolin gets his sixth start of the season after posting a 2-1 record with a 1.13 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP this year. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.80 and 4.81 moving forward. He faces a Braves team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against a right-handed starting pitcher. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after losing their last game. The Over is also 18-7-1 in the Braves last 26 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Elder who has a 3-0 record with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 2.17 ERA along with a 1.24 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in five starts. Elder is also a prime regression candidate with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.85 and 3.65 moving forward. Atlanta has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total at home — and the Over is 19-5-2 in their last 26 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have played 16 of their last 21 games on the road Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 8* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Bryce Elder. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-33) has lost five of their last seven games after their 128-102 upset loss on the road against the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (56-42) has won 10 of their last 12 games while taking a 3-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics embarrassed themselves (and everyone backing them as a road favorite in that contest) with that 26-point loss in a must-win game for them on Sunday. They allowed the Heat to nail 56.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 60 games. It looks like the team quit on rookie head coach Joe Mazzulla — but they should play much harder tonight after Game Three’s humiliation. Boston has played 7 straight Unders when facing elimination in a playoff series. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Additionally, the Celtics have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog of six points or less. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Miami was on fire by nailing 19 of their 35 shots (54%) from behind the arc as they continued a miraculous turnaround with their long-range shooting after only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. The Heat made 56.8% of their shots on Sunday which was the best showing effort in their last 13 games. Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. The Heat dominated Game Three despite getting outrebounded by a 57 to 35 margin. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards — and they have played 4 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when holding a 3-0 series lead — and they have played 4 of their last 6 playoff games with the possibility of closing out the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (64-32) has won five games in a row after their 119-108 upset loss as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (52-46) has lost four of their last five games to dig themselves into an 0-3 hole in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers' obvious move tonight is for head coach Darvin Ham to reduce D’Angelo Russell’s playing time since he is scoring only 7 Points-Per-Game in this series while being a sieve on the defensive end of the court. This adjustment will help Los Angeles’ defensive efforts. As it is, the Lakers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total at home when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. Despite the Nuggets making 50% of their shots on Saturday, the Lakers still have the lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 101.6 in the playoffs when playing at home — and fewer minutes for Russell will only help those numbers. Denver has played 36 of their last 62 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Nuggets have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. And in their last 5 games when playing with one day of rest, Denver has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Fatigue is becoming an issue for the Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing tons of minutes and the bench shortening due to ineffective players like Russell. While I do not expect the effort for Los Angeles to drop off, they may try to slow the pace down simply to conserve energy for the fourth quarter after giving up a 13-0 run late in the game on Saturday. In the Lakers’ last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, the Under is 12-5-1. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:32 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542) in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-32) has lost four of their last six games after a 111-105 upset loss at home as a 10-point favorite on Friday. Miami (55-42) has won nine of their last 11 games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics had a 12-point lead early in the fourth quarter in Game Two — but squandered that by allowing the Heat to outscore them by a 36-22 margin in the final 12 minutes to give that game away. Boston has dug themselves an 0-2 hole in this series — and when they have put themselves in similar predicaments, they usually respond with increased focus and intensity on the defensive end of the court. After losing Game Five at home to Philadelphia to trail by a 3-2 margin in that series, they held the 76ers to 87.0 Points-Per-Game in Games Six and Seven of that series to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row at home. Miami has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. The Heat have excelled on the defensive end of the court when playing at home in the postseason. They have held their five opponents to 39.2% shooting which has resulted in their guests scoring only 98.4 Points-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (9) and the Vegas Golden Knights (10) in Game Two of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (54-26-16) has lost two of their last three games after their 4-3 loss in overtime on Friday. Vegas (60-25-9) has won three straight games en route to their 1-0 lead in this series.  

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Stars are scoring 3.62 Goals-Per-Game in the playoffs — and they have tallied 22 goals after their previous five losses this postseason for a 4.4 Goals-Per-Game average. Dallas has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing a game on the road where both teams scored three or more goals — and they have played 40 of their last 67 games Over the Total after a game where seven or more combined goals were scored. Jake Oettinger has struggled in these playoffs with a 2.83 Goals-Against-Average and a .902 save percentage in 14 games after giving up four goals on Friday. He was pulled in Games Three and Six last round against the Kraken. Dallas stays on the road where the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games. Vegas has scored 13  combined goals in their last three games from eight different players. The Golden Knights have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games. They have scored at least four goals in each of their last three games — and they have played 20 of their last 33 games Over the Total after scoring three or more goals in two straight games. They stay at home where they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total. Goalie Adin Hill bailed them out against Edmonton after Laurent Brossoit suffered an injury in Game Two. But he remains risky moving forward which he demonstrated by allowing the tying goal with under two minutes to go in the third period. The Stars peppered him with 36 shots on Friday — and he will be tested once again in this crucial game for them.  

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has trailed in a playoff series four times this postseason — and 3 of those 4 games finished Over the Total. The Over is also 7-1-1 in the Stars’ last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NHL ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (9) and the Vegas Golden Knights (10). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (539) and the Los Angeles Lakers (540) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (63-32) has won four straight games after their 108-103 victory at home as a 5.5-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (52-45) has lost three of their last four games while falling behind by an 0-2 margin in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles only made 43.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They responded to that effort in Game Two of their series against Golden State by scoring 127 points in a 30-point route at home against the Warriors in Game Three of that series. Anthony Davis has been inconsistent with his scoring production — but he is likely due for a big effort tonight after only making 4 of his 15 shots from the field on Thursday. LeBron James missed all six of his shots from behind the arc in that game as well.

At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (5) and the Vegas Golden Knights (6) in Game One of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (54-25-16) has won three of their last four games after beating Seattle by a 2-1 score on Monday to pull out that series in seven games. Vegas (59-25-9) has won three of their last four games after beating Edmonton on the road by a 5-2 score to end that series in six games on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Stars are scoring 3.62 Goals-Per-Game in the playoffs. The Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after winning their previous game — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Additionally, the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last contest. Jake Oettinger has struggled in these playoffs with a 2.75 Goals-Against-Average and a .903 save percentage in 13 games. He was pulled in Games Three and Six last round against the Kraken. Dallas goes back on the road where the Over is 14-3-1 in their last 18 games. Vegas has scored nine combined goals in their last two games to take their series with the Oilers after that series was tied at 2-2. The Golden Knights have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games. The Over is also 17-8-3 in their last 28 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Vegas returns home where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total. Goalie Adin Hill bailed them out against Edmonton after Laurent Brossoit suffered an injury in Game Two. But he remains risky moving forward.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas swept the three games between these teams in the regular season after a 2-1 win at home on April 8th. The Golden Knights have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one goal. 8* NHL Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (5) and the Vegas Golden Knights (6). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536) in Game Two of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (62-32) outlasted the Lakers in a high-scoring opening game with their 132-126 victory as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (52-44) has now lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After the high-scoring Game One which saw 258 combined points, the books have bumped up the total into the high-220s for Game Two after Tuesday’s game closed in the 223 range. The Nuggets did stun the Lakers by making 54.9% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 130 points in their last game. The Under is also 11-3-1 in their last 15 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last contest. Denver made 53.7% of their shots en route to 125 points in their closeout Game Six against Phoenix — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 125 or more points in two straight games. Additionally, they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. Denver played their worst defensive game in their last three contests by allowing the Lakers to make 54.8% of their shots. The Nuggets stay at home for Game Two where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. Los Angeles’ 54.8% field goal percentage was the best shooting effort in their last 18 contests. And by allowing Denver to nail 54.9% of their shots, the Lakers played their worst defensive game in their last 48 contests. Head coach Marvin Ham did make an adjustment in the second half by moving Anthony Davis off from defending Nikola Jokic with Rui Hamichura coming off the bench to guard the Joker. After giving up 72 points in the first half, they held the Nuggets to just 60 points in the second half including  a mere 24 points in the final quarter. They posted an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number of 103.0 in the second half with Hachimura on the court. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. The Lakers got outrebounded by a 47 to 30 margin in Game One — and they have played all 5 of their games Under the Total this season after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards in their previous game. And while the Lakers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Under is 11-4-1 in the Lakers’ last 16 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Denver came out with tons of adrenaline and pushed the pace that was at a blistering 102 possessions per 48-minute rate. Things slowed down in the second half with a pace of 93 possessions per 48 minutes. Look for tonight’s game to resemble that second-half pace with the Nuggets slowing down a bit while adjusting to Davis protecting the rim rather than defending Jokic. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Denver ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (533) and the Boston Celtics (534) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (53-42) has won seven of their last nine games after beating the New York Knicks in six games after a 96-92 victory as a 6.5-point favorite last Friday. Boston (65-30) has won four of their last six games after winning their Game Seven showdown with the Philadelphia 76ers as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat comes off a low-scoring game where they only made 40.2% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark in their last three games. And by holding the Knicks to 38.0% shooting, they have played their best defensive effort in their last three games. Miami has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have paled 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs on the road against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Boston made 47.1% of their shots on Sunday but that was tied for the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Celtics did hold the 76ers to 36.1% and 37.3% field goal percentage in the final two games of that series — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 39% shooting in two straight games. Boston has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory.                                   

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings in Boston Over the Total. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (533) and the Boston Celtics (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Manchester City (224210) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid settled for a 1-1 draw at home in the first leg of this semifinals last Tuesday. Manchester City hosts the second leg at the Etihad.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti instructed his team to play conservatively and with caution in the first leg between these teams — and after Vinicius Junior scored the opening goal at the 36th-minute mark, this directive was even more imperative. Los Blancos do not have the same level of talent as Manchester City — but the reigning Champions League champions have plenty of star power to pull out a close match in the second leg. Real Madrid only generated 0.89 expected goals — but they executed what Ancelotti wanted by limiting the Sky Blues to just 0.37 expected goals. But Man City was able to settle for the draw when Kevin DeBruyne evened the score in the 67th minute. So it is now winner take all back at the Etihad. Los Blancos followed that match up on Saturday with a 1-0 win at home against Getafe in La Liga action. They have now scored in 16 straight matches across all competitions. They have also scored 26 goals in their 11 matches in the Champions League this season for a robust 2.36 Goals-Per-Game average. But the defensive play for Real Madrid has not been nearly as stout when playing away from home this year. In five home matches against upper-tier competition, Los Blancos held Liverpool, Chelsea RB Leipzig, Barcelona, and Real Sociedad to a combined 4.4 expected goals. But when playing on the road against those five sides, Real Madrid conceded a combined 9.5 expected goals (xG) with Liverpool accumulating 2.2 xG, Chelsea, RP Leipzig, and Barcelona all generating 1.9 xG, and Read Sociedad registering 1.9 xG. Now Los Blancos have to try to again slow down what is probably the best-attacking team in the world in this Cityzens group. Man City has scored two or more goals in six of their last seven matches across all competitions after their 3-0 win at Everton on Sunday. They matched Real Madrid’s 26 goals in 11 Champions League competitions this season. Manager Pep Guardiola may have been comfortable with the conservative tactics that Ancelotti deployed last week knowing they had the advantage of the second leg being back at the Etihad. Man City has won 15 straight matches at home while scoring two or more goals in 14 of those contests. With the addition of Erling Haaland this season, Guardiola has his first world-class number-nine striker at the top of the pitch for the first time since Sergio Aguero from several seasons ago. Haaland has been a goal-scoring machine for this team with 36 goals across 33 matches in all competitions for the Sky Blues this season. But the defense has been an issue with this team. Ederson did get the clean sheet shutout on Sunday — but that was the first time he had not conceded in his last matches across all competitions. The team's two previous clean sheets were with backup keeper Stefan Ortega getting the spot start. Guardiola will not have Nathan Ake available for this match as he recovers from injury.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown of European superpowers is a rematch of the Champions League semifinals last year. In the first leg at the Etihad, Man City won by a 4-3 score in what was a wild up-and-down affair. And after scoring first in the second leg in Madrid, the Cityzens thought they were in control before Karim Benzema put his team on his back with Real Madrid scoring three late goals to steal a 6-5 aggregate score victory. Benzema exposed a shaky Man City defense against counterattacks — and he is ready to make noise again with the help of a rapidly improving Junior. But Haaland was signed in the summer to a big contract for precisely this moment. The low scoring in the first leg was the outlier between these two teams. The urgency of this tied second leg will lead to aggressive play, fireworks, and plenty of goals (one way or another) given the counter-attacking prowess of both sides. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Manchester City (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Kraken (49) and the Dallas Stars (50) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Seattle (54-34-8) forced a decisive seventh game in this series with their 6-3 victory at home on Saturday. Dallas (53-25-16) had won the previous games in this series before failing to close things out in Game Six.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kraken head coach Dave Hakstol wants his team to play aggressively — but they only needed 28 shots to score six times (although the last goal was an empty-netter with a minute left in the game). Look for Seattle to be a bit more conservative on the road for this Game Seven. The Kraken have only scored two goals apiece in Games Two and Five on the road in this series. Seattle played a conservative game as well last round in Game Seven at Colorado where they beat the Avalanche by a 2-1 score. All six games in this series have gone Over the Total with at least seven goals scored in the last four contests between these two teams. But the personality of this Kraken team suggests this will be a lower-scoring game. Seattle has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing two straight games with seven or more combined goals scored. They have also played 4 straight Unders after playing four straight games where seven or more combined goals were scored. Furthermore, the Kraken have played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a game where eight or more combined goals were scored — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a game where nine or more combined goals were scored. Another reason that Hakstol may want to play this game with more caution is to ensure the confidence of goalie Philip Grubauer. He was outstanding last round against his former team but has been up and down in this series. Dallas has played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Additionally, the Stars have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by two or more goals — and they have played 20 of their last 34 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by three or more goals. Goalie Jake Oettinger was pulled on Saturday after giving up four goals on 18 shots. He did play in a Game Seven on the road last season at Calgary where he was spectacular in stopping 64 of the 67 shots he faced for a .954 save percentage despite eventually losing in overtime.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 12 of their last 20 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent. 10* NHL Dallas-Seattle ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Kraken (49) and the Dallas Stars (50). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (61-31) saw their two-game winning streak in this series snapped with a 95-86 loss at home to the Celtics as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. Boston (64-30) forced this climactic seventh game of this series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Thoughtful handicapping of the over/under for this game needs to resolve why the total has dropped more than 10 points than the common 211.5-point number that Game Six closed at. The books typically drop the Total several points in Game Sevens — but the drop for this Game Seven is remarkable from a historical perspective. Something else is going on — especially when the public is hitting the Over for this game. The 76ers shot a season-low 36.1% from the field on Thursday. Was that an outlier effort — or was it a canary in the coal mine and harbinger as to what to expect moving forward in this series? I concluded it is the latter. The Celtics have had plenty of success against the Sixers in the Joel Embiid era. They had won 12 of their 17 games at home against Embiid going into Game Five including all six games in the postseason. But Philadelphia pulled off a 115-103 upset win with them making 50.6% of their shots. Frankly, the Celtics may have been simply overconfident in that game as their defensive effort was laughable in that game. They were embarrassingly bad at times defending the basic 76ers’ pick-and-roll play between James Harden and Joel Embiid. The tape offered head coach Joe Mazzula a great opportunity to seize an attentive audience to get back to fundamentals as to how they want to defend that play. In Game Six, Boston remained focused on defending Embiid after picks and dare Philly’s role players beat them. That defensive approach will continue in Game Seven given the stakes — and the onus will be on these players stepping on the road with the Celtics likely double-teaming Embiid and doing what they can to deny him the ball. It is telling that the 76ers have shot under 40% in their three losses in this series. More evidence that the low-scoring game in Game Six will carry over into Game Seven is that Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing to an Atlantic Division rival. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200s — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range. Boston has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after beating an Atlantic Divisional rival in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional opponent. They have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The Celtics have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 6 straight Unders in the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown era when facing potential elimination in the playoffs. The Celtics have also played 7 of their last 10 Game Sevens Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 Game Sevens Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 8 playoff potential close-out games Under the Total including both close-out games this postseason. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (37) and the Seattle Kraken (38) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (53-24-16) has won two games in a row in this series after their 5-2 victory at home against the Kraken on Thursday. Seattle (52-34-8) has lost three of their last four games to fall behind in this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Kraken got an inspired goaltending effort from Philip Grubauer in the first round of the playoffs who seemed motivated to prove something to his old team — he posted a .934 save percentage in that seven-game series with Seattle upsetting Colorado and dethroning the reigning Stanley Cup champions. But Grubauer has regressed back to his underwhelming play in this series which has made him a big disappointment for this expansion club that targeted him as their big free agent signing before their inaugural season last year. Grubauer has allowed nine goals in the last two games while posting a .786 save percentage. His postseason numbers of a 3.06 Goals-Against-Average and a .903 save percentage look very close to his regular season numbers. At home during the regular season, Grubauer had a 3.06 GAA and a .886 save percentage. Seattle has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss on the road by three or more goals. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing four or more goals in two straight games. The Kraken face the prospect of elimination tonight — so they will be aggressive and will pull Grubauer to grab the man advantage earlier than usual if they are trailing in the third period. Seattle has played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. Dallas has seen the Over go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last game. And while they have scored 11 combined goals in the last two games, the Stars have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road after scoring four or more goals in two straight games. Dallas has also received disappointing goaltending in this series. Jake Oettinger has a 2.65 GAA and a .907 save percentage in the postseason. In his last three games, he has allowed 10 goals while posting a .851 save percentage. The Stars go on the road looking to end this series tonight — and the Over is 13-3-1 in their last 17 games on the road. The Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 26 games in the Western Conference Semifinals, the Over is 17-4-5.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 straight Overs — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Seattle. The Kraken have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total when avenging two straight losses by two or more goals. 25* NHL 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (37) and the Seattle Kraken (38). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Los Angeles Lakers (504) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (50-44) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 121-106 win at home as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Los Angeles (51-43) still holds a 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 51.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But now Golden State may be without Andrew Wiggins who is questionable with fractured cartilage in his ribs. Wiggins may still play because his defense against LeBron James is so important — but his offensive efforts will probably be limited. The Warriors have played 36 of their last 53 games Under the Total on the road after a double-digit victory against a Pacific Division rival. Golden State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, Golden State has played 19 of their last 28 games in the playoffs Under the Total when trailing in the series — and they have played 10 of their last 14 playoff games Under the Total when facing potential elimination. Los Angeles played their worst game on defense in their last 14 contests by allowing the Warriors to make 51.1% of their shots. The Lakers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 8 games in the playoffs Under the Total when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Unders when battling at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Los Angeles Lakers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (29) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (30) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Florida (49-37-7) was on a six-game winning streak before their 2-1 loss at home to the Maple Leafs on Wednesday. Toronto (55-25-12) still trails in this series by a 3-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Maple Leafs have scored exactly two goals in six straight games — but the books and the market have not adjusted with the Total still set at 6.5 tonight. Toronto has abandoned their aggressive offensive approach to play more cautiously and with a defensive mindset. They only generated 2.66 expected goals on Wednesday while only 25 shots. They have no more than 30 shots in four of their last six games — and they have not topped more than 25 shots in three of those games. But this approach is making life easier for their goaltender as they have held Florida to under 30 shots in all four games in this series. Head coach Sheldon Keefe seems committed to this philosophy against the high-scoring Panthers — and he will likely stick to this plan with rookie Joseph Woll between the pipes. He stopped 24 of the 25 shots he faced on Wednesday. Woll has talent. His 2.37 Goals-Against-Average and .927 save percentage in 21 appearances in the AHL was similar to his 2.16 GAA and .932 save percentage in his seven starts in the regular season. He passed the tough test in Game Four in a hostile environment. Toronto has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a one-goal victory against a division opponent in their last game. They have played 5 straight Unders after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. The Maple Leafs have played 22 of their last 32 home games Under the Total after not scoring more than two goals in four straight games. They have also played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Florida has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They are getting outstanding goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky who is in the zone right now with a 1.99 GAA and a .934 save percentage in this series. The Panthers have played 8 straight Unders on the road in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. They have also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight Unders — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams when playing in Toronto. 25* NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (29) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (30). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (553) and the Philadelphia 76ers (532) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (63-30) has lost two straight games in this series after their 115-103 upset loss as a 7.5-point favorite at home on Tuesday. Philadelphia (61-30) has won nine of their last 11 games to take a 3-2 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics allowed the Sixers to make 50.6% of their shots which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Facing the prospects of elimination, they should play harder on defense tonight. Boston has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a divisional rival. Additionally, the Celtics have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have played 18 of their last 27 Game Sixes in a playoff series Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination. Philadelphia tied their best shooting mark in their last nine games with that 50.6% field goal percentage. But they have not shot better than 46.2% in five of their last nine contests. The 76ers have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the playoffs when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 8* NBA Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (553) and the Philadelphia 76ers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Jersey Devils (23) and the Carolina Hurricanes (24) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New Jersey (56-28-9) has lost four of their last six games after a 6-1 loss in Game Three of this series on Tuesday. Carolina (58-24-10) has won four of their last five games en route to taking a 3-1 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Hurricanes have scored at least four goals in each of the four games in this series — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring four or more goals in four straight games. Carolina has also played 14 of their last 20 playoff games Over the Total when leading in a playoff series. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing at the PNC Arena in Carolina.
New Jersey is a young team that should play with reckless abandon tonight. All four of the games in this series have finished Over the Toal with at least six combined goals scored. The Devils have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing three straight Overs. The Over is also 33-16-3 in New Jersey’s last 52 games after allowing five or more goals in their last contest. The Over is also 8-3-1 in their last 12 games on the road. While the Devils have exciting scoring talent led by Jack Hughes, their blue line and the play of their goaltenders remain problems. They have allowed four or more goals in four straight games and five of their last six contests. Vitek Vanecek is probably unplayable at this point after allowing five goals on 12 shots on Tuesday. He has allowed at least four goals in all four of his playoff starts this year. Head coach Lindy Ruff probably has to turn back to Akira Schmid who played well last round against the New York Islanders but has been saddled with a 5.40 GAA and a .830 save percentage in this series. Even Mackenzie Blackwood has to be considered an option despite his 3.20 GAA and .893 save percentage. He has not played since April 13th in the regular season when he was torched for four goals on 11 shots against Washington.

FINAL TAKE: The Devils have played 5 of their last 6 games over the Total when playing with revenge for a loss by four or more goals. 8* NHL New Jersey-Carolina TNT O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the New Jersey Devils (23) and the Carolina Hurricanes (24). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the New York Knicks (550) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (52-41) has won six of their last seven games after their 109-101 victory at home as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday.
New York (52-39) has lost the last two games and now looks to stave off elimination trailing 3-1 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games over the Total after a point spread victory. Miami has also played a decisive 31 of their last 49 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. New York has struggled with shooting the basketball in this series — they are making only 43.6% of their shots and just 28.2% of their 3-pointers en route to a scoring average under 100 Points-Per-Game. The Knicks seemed to spark some life in their offensive attack in Game Four despite only scoring 20 points in the fourth quarter. They shot 48.7% from the field on Monday — but they still have room for improvement after making only 9 of their 28 shots (32%) of their 3-pointers. New York has played 28 of their last 46 games Over the Total when favored. The Over is also 11-4-1 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 5 straight Overs when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when up 3-1 in a playoff series. 8* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/ U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (549) and the New York Knicks (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Denver Nuggets (548) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (51-40) evened this series at 2-2 with their 129-124 win at home as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Denver (59-32) has lost the last two games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns head coach Monty Williams has his team playing at a faster pace with Chris Paul sidelined with his groin injury. Paul tends to slow things down running the point in the half-court offense. With Devin Booker running the show, Phoenix is racing up and down the court with Booker averaging 36.8 Points-Per-Game in this series. Williams is also giving more minutes to T.J. Warren and Terrence Ross who are scorers but liabilities on defense. The result on Sunday was a scoring fest with 253 combined points scored. But despite these tactical adjustments, the books have remained steady with the Total remaining in the 227-228 range while letting the market make big decisions on where this series will go. Well, the market loves the Over tonight — but I think Game Five is the time to embrace our contrarian spirits and play the Under. Booker is making 62% of his shots including 51% of his shots from behind the arc. The Regression Gods will be making an appearance with him sooner or later since those numbers are unsustainable. A problem the Suns have is their lack of depth — made worse by the Paul injury — and the lack of help that Booker and Kevin Durant are getting from their healthy teammates. Deandre Ayton has scored only 12 combined points in the last two games — and his playing time has dropped to just 26 minutes per game. And while Booker and Durant have been fantastic, this is their third game in five days with them averaging about 42 minutes per game. To compound matters, they are playing in the high altitude in Denver. Their 56.8% shooting on Sunday was the best field goal percentage they have posted in their last seven games. They averaged 125 points in the two games in Phoenix — but they averaged a mere 97 PPG in the first two games in this series in Denver. The Suns allowed the Nuggets to make 56.2% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last 38 contests. Phoenix should play better on defense — and Williams might be compelled to rely on players like Torrey Craig and Josh Okogie instead of Warren, Ross, or Landry Shamet (who nailed five shots from behind the arc in Game Four) thinking his team can’t outrun and outgun Denver in their own building. The Suns have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row at home. They have also played 16 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Denver had their best shooting game in their last six contests by making 56.2% of their shots — but they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after shooting 55% or better in their last game. Head coach Michael Malone needs his group to tighten things up on defense after the Suns made 56.8% of their shots. That performance was the Nuggets’ worst defensive game in their last 76 contests in terms of opponent’s field goal percentage. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make 55% or more of their shots — and they have also played a decisive 44 of their last 65 games at home Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field. While the Nuggets ranked 22nd in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road, back at home, they rank sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing -3.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than they do on the road. Denver has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. The Nuggets have only covered the point spread twice in their last six games — and they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. And while the last two games in this series have finished Over the Total, Denver has paled 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (547) and the Denver Nuggets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (49-43) has lost three of their last five games after their 127-97 loss on the road to the Lakers as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (50-42) has won five of their last seven games to take a 2-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors played their worst defensive game in their last 20 contests by allowing the Lakers to make 52.5% of their shots. Golden State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a Pacific Division rival. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Lakers had their best shooting effort in this series by making 52.5% of their shots — and they were even more impressive behind the arc by nailing 15 of their 31 shots (48%) from 3-point land. But Los Angeles only makes 34.3% of their shots from behind the arc so they are not likely to replicate that effort. The Lakers have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. The Lakers have also played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when playing no more than their sixth game in 14 days.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles owned a 37-17 advantage in free throw attempts in Game Three. They have played 28 of their last 41 games at home Under the Total after attempting 20 or more free throws than their opponent in their last game. Golden State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where their opponent took 20 or more shots from the charity stripe. 10* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.