All Sports Archive |
Date |
Match Up |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Lead Time |
Analysis |
10-19-18 |
Dodgers v. Brewers OVER 7.5 |
|
2-7 |
Win
|
109 |
4 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Milwaukee Brewers (958) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Wade Miley. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (98-74) took a 3-2 lead in the National League Championship Series on Wednesday with their 5-2 victory over the Brewers in the fifth game of this series. This series returns to Milwaukee for sixth and potential seventh game of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have seen the Over go 5-2-3 in their last 10 games after allowing two runs or less in the last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games in the playoffs. They give the ball to Ryu who did not last 5 innings in Game Two of this series where he allowed two runs and six hits. While the left-hander had a 7-3 record with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP during the regular season, he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.58 and 1.20 marks in his six starts on the road. And while he had a microscopic 1.02 ERA at home, that mark rose to a 2.23 ERA in his twelve starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Ryu pitching after a victory. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 13 of their last 19 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Milwaukee (101-70) has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 4-1-1 in the Brewers’ last 6 games against an opponent that did not allow more than two runs in their last game. And while Milwaukee has not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. They counter with Miley who is 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in sixteen regular season starts. The left-hander has not been quite as effective at home where he sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 2.67 and 1.35 marks in seven starts — and his opponent’s batting average at home was a subpar .270 at home. The Brewers have played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total with Miley on the mound — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games with Miley pitching after a loss. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The first two games of this series saw eleven and seven combined runs scored. With this being a potential elimination game, expect a higher scoring game than the three previous games played in Los Angeles. 10* MLB LA Dodgers-Milwaukee O/U FS1-TV Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Milwaukee Brewers (958) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Wade Miley. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-18 |
Broncos v. Cardinals UNDER 43 |
|
45-10 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (301) and the Arizona Cardinals (302). THE SITUATION: Arizona (1-5) looks to bounce-back from their 27-17 loss at Minnesota last Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Denver (2-4) has lost four straight games after their 23-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They surrendered 444 yards to the Rams in their loss on Sunday — but they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they have 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Denver has also played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record overall. The Broncos are scoring just 15 PPG away from home this season — and they are dealing with some tough injuries on their offensive line with left guard Ron Leary out the season with an Achilles injury and right tackle Jared Veldheer declared out tonight with a knee. Furthermore, Denver has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in the month of October. Arizona has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Cardinals are also dealing with attrition on their offensive line with center A.Q. Shipley out the season with an ACL tear and both right guard Justin Pugh and left guard Mike Iupati out with injuries. These losses will make things even more difficult for an offense that is last in the NFL by averaging 220.3 total YPG while ranking second-to-last by scoring only 13.1 PPG. Arizona did allow 411 yards last week to the Vikings — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cardinals return home where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and this includes them playing five of their last six home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: With both these teams struggling to move the football behind banged-up offensive lines, points will be hard to come by for both teams tonight. 10* NFL Denver-Arizona Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (301) and the Arizona Cardinals (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-18 |
Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 |
Top |
8-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 8:39 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Charlie Morton. THE SITUATION: Boston (112-56) took a 2-1 lead in this series last night with their 5-2 victory over the Astros in the American League Championship Series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Houston (107-60) has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a loss by at least four runs — and they have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after a loss by at least six runs. Additionally, the Astros have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by at least six runs. Houston has now seen the Over go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games at home — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total at home when priced as a favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. Furthermore, the Over is 14-2-1 in the Astros’ last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They give the ball to Morton who is 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander does see his ERA rise to a 3.21 mark in his sixteen starts at home. Morton has a 4.03 ERA in his six appearances in the playoffs in his career which includes five starts. Morton has struggled against the Red Sox this season with a 6.97 ERA with a 1.84 WHIP in 10 1/3 innings of work. He faces a Boston team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in these playoffs — and they played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a victory — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Boston has scored fifteen runs in the last two games — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total after scoring at least seven runs in two straight games. The Red Sox have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They counter with Porcello who is 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander is not as effective on the road where he has a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in eighteen starts as compared to his 1.07 WHIP and .226 opponent’s batting average at home. Porcello also has a 4.64 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP in his twenty-six starts at night. He did allow only one earned run in 5 innings of work in his last start against the Yankees in Game Four of the ALDS — but Boston has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total when he is following up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. He faces an Astros team that is scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs with a .262 batting average along with a .367 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .824. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: This is a must-win game for the Astros against this Red Sox team playing with proverbial house money with their opportunity to seize a 3-1 lead in this series with two potential games still to be played back home at Fenway Park. That is a recipe for a high-scoring game. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-18 |
Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 |
|
8-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 5:09 PM ET On Tuesday, we will be playing the Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (907) and the Houston Astros (908) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Dallas Kuechel. THE SITUATION: Boston (112-56) evened this series at a game apiece on Sunday with their 7-5 victory over the Astros in the second game of the American League Championship Series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox has seen the Over go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games Over the Total after a game where they scored at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 20-6-2 in their last 28 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Over is 34-16-2 in Boston’s last 52 games after an off-day. Now they go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 22 games as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range, the Red Sox have played 15 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Eovaldi who is 6-7 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander has struggled all season with Tampa Bay and then the Red Sox (after being acquired at the trade deadline) when pitching away from home as he has a 5.14 ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in thirteen starts on the road. Eovaldi also struggles in night games where he has a 5.11 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in twelve starts (thirteen appearances). Boston has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Eovaldi on the hill — and the Over is 5-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 7 games with Eovaldi facing a team with a winning record. Houston (107-60) has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an off-day. They return home for the first time since October 6th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Astros have also played 7 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Houston has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when priced in the -100 to -150 price range. They counter with Keuchel who is 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in thirty-four starts. He does see his ERA rise to a 3.90 mark when he pitches at home. The Over is 4-1-1 in the Astros’ last 6 games with Keuchel pitching against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. Expect another high-scoring game. 10* MLB Boston-Houston O/U TBS-TV Special with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (907) and the Houston Astros (908) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Dallas Kuechel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-15-18 |
49ers v. Packers OVER 46 |
Top |
30-33 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (277) and the Green Bay Packers (278). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-4) has lost three in a row with their 28-18 upset loss to Arizona last week as a 3-point favorite. Green Bay (2-2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-23 loss in Detroit as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers went into the locker rooms trailing by a 24-0 score in that game — and they left up to 13 points off the board with their place-kicker Mason Crosby missing four field goals along with an extra point. The veteran kicker should rebound at home tonight with a better effort. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Packers have played 39 of their last 49 games Over the Total after failing to score more than a field in the first half of their last contest. And they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total when allowing at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Don’t be fooled by Green Bay’s good defensive numbers — they rank 4th in the NFL in total defense by allowing only 313.8 total YPG. But those numbers are skewed with their shutout victory at home over the hapless Buffalo offense two weeks ago. Take out that Bills game, then Packers are allowing 28.5 PPG along with 356.0 YPG. Green Bay has played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. They also have played a decisive 21 of their last 26 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents. The Packers have played 10 of their last 15 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Green Bay has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a divisional rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers held the Cardinals to just 220 yards of offense — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. San Francisco’s defense ranks 28th in the NFL by allowing 29.2 PPG — and that number rises to a 30.3 PPG mark when playing on the road. They rank 26th in the NFL with just 9 sacks — and they are averaging a sack in only 22 passing plays. Aaron Rodgers will likely have plenty of clean pockets against this Niners defense that is making hits on the quarterback in just 13.5% of opposing teams’ passing attempts. San Francisco has played four straight games Over the Total — and they have not only played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing an Over while also playing 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs. The 49ers have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points.
FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is scoring to score plenty of points in this one — but expect the 49ers offense to keep up find points against the overrated Packers’ defense. Niners’ QB C.J. Beathard was productive last week by completing 34 of 54 passes for 349 yards with TD passes. 25* NFL Monday Night Football O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (277) and the Green Bay Packers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-15-18 |
Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:39 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-3) evened this series at 1-1 on Saturday with their 4-4 victory over the Brewers in the second game of the National League Championship Series. This series moves to Los Angeles for the next three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after a victory by two runs or less. Now they return home to Los Angeles for the first time since October 5th — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Under is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Buehler who is 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.12 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .184 in eleven starts (twelve appearances). The Under is 10-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 12 home games with Buehler on the hill. He will be supported by a hot bullpen that has a 1.99 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP over their last seven games. Milwaukee (100-68) has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have now played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Brewers have played 39 of their last 58 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. They counter with Chacin who is 15-8 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-four starts. The right-hander has been better on the road this year where he sees his ERA and WHIP drop to 3.41 and 1.10 marks along with an opponent’s batting average of .211. Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Chacin on the hill. Chacin will be supported the outstanding Brewers bullpen that has a 2.73 ERA along with a 1.09 WHIP over their last seven games — even after their pen allowed the four runs that cost them Game Two. Manager Craig Counsel will have Josh Hader available to pitch in this game after he logged in three scoreless in their opening game win in this series. The fireballing left-hander has not allowed an earned run in his last five appearances spanning 7 1/3 innings of work where he allowed only three hits and no walks while striking out eleven batters.
FINAL TAKE: To accommodate the prime-time programming for the east coast, this game will be played in the late afternoon in Los Angeles — and that means shadows which can challenge the sight-lines for the batters. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. Expect another low-scoring game. 25* MLB National League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-18 |
Chiefs v. Patriots UNDER 60 |
Top |
40-43 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (275) and the New England Patriots (276). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-0) remained undefeated last week with their 30-14 win over Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite. New England (3-2) has won two games in a row with their 38-24 win over Indianapolis last Thursday as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Patrick Mahomes is an exciting young quarterback — but as the Denver Broncos have already shown, he can be slowed down. The second-year QB “only” threw for 304 yards in that game which was the last time the Chiefs were on the road two weeks ago — and they exposed some tendencies that the Patriots’ defensive staff can exploit. More importantly, Kansas City scored only 27 points in that game — and a similar effort would keep this game Under the Total. Mahomes still have some technique issues while being too eager to leave the pocket — and I expect the New England defense to use take advantage of these flaws his game. The more tape that gets created on these new starting QBs, the more opposing coaching staffs find areas to attack. It is telling that Mahomes has only thrown one touchdown pass in his last 95 passing attempts. The Chiefs offense was also responsible for seven offensive penalties the last time they played in front of a hostile environment in that Broncos game. As it is, Kansas City has 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning two straight games. The Chiefs game with the Broncos was their lowest scoring game of the season. Not only have they played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games but they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight contests. KC raced out to a 20-0 halftime lead against the Jaguars last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total owning a two-touchdown lead at halftime of their last game. The Chiefs have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New England has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Patriots are going to play ball-control offense and keep-away to burn time off the clock to frustrate Mahomes (and his head coach Andy Reid who almost always gets stymied by this tactic in the playoffs). New England has gone to halftime in their last two games with 24-3 and 24-0 leads — and they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. The Patriots generated 438 yards of offense last week against the Colts after gaining 449 yards in their previous game against the Dolphins — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in two straight games. Furthermore, not only has New England played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road but they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: Look, I know that scoring is up — and we have successfully take a bunch Overs this year. But this just looks like irrational exuberance that this Total was bet up into the 60s at one point as if this is a Big 12 contest. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (275) and the New England Patriots (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-18 |
Astros v. Red Sox OVER 8 |
|
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:09 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (951) and the Boston Red Sox (952) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and David Price. THE SITUATION: Houston (107-59) won the opening game of the American League Championship Series last night by a 7-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Astros scored eleven runs in their 11-3 win over the Indians last Monday to close out the ALDS to begin the week. Houston has played 21 of their last 26 road games Over the Total after scoring at least seven runs in each of their last two games. The Astros have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They send out Cole who is 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander has been a bit less effective on the road where he has a 1.10 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .206 in seventeen starts as compared to his 0.97 WHIP and a .188 opponent’s batting average at home. Cole also saw his numbers decline in the second-half of the season where he had a 3.50 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP after the All-Star Break. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Cole pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Cole facing a team with a winning record. Cole faces a Red Sox team that has seen the Over go 37-16-2 in their last 55 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Boston (111-56) has seen the Over go 15-5-2 in their last 22 games after a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Over is also 19-6-2 in their last 27 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 7-1-2 in the Red Sox’s last 10 games at home. The Red Sox counter with Price who has often struggled in the playoffs given his 5.28 ERA in 75 innings of postseason work in his career. Boston has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total with Price pitching as the underdog. The Red Sox have also played 19 of their last 29 games Over the Total overall.
FINAL TAKE: Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (951) and the Boston Red Sox (952) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and David Price. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-18 |
Wyoming v. Fresno State UNDER 44.5 |
|
3-27 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (207) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (208). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (2-4) has lost two straight games after their 17-13 loss at Hawai’i last Saturday as a 1-point underdog. Fresno State (4-1) looks to build off their 21-3 victory in Nevada against the Wolf Pack last Saturday as a 16.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 8-1-1 in the Cowboys’ last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Wyoming managed only 244 yards of offense against a suspect Hawai’i defense — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Despite having Josh Allen last year, the Cowboys averaged only 23.5 PPG (104th in the FBS) with just 286.0 total YPG (125th in the FBS) — and they are about the same this year under redshirt freshman QB Tyler Vander Waal as they are scoring 17.5 PPG (126th in the FBS) and averaging 292.5 total YPG (126th in the FBS) which is not an endorsement for the offensive line or skill position players with this program. The Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. This Wyoming team does play stout defense when away from Laramie as they are holding their home hosts to just 21.3 PPG along wit 346.7 total YPG. The Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Fresno State is playing outstanding defense this season as they rank 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 16.6 PPG. The Bulldogs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit win over a conference rival. The Under is also 21-7-1 in Fresno State’s last 29 games after a straight-up victory — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Bulldogs are scoring 40.2 PPG this season but only managed 271 yards of offense last week in Reno with that game finishing far below the 58.5 point total. Fresno State has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game that finished Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Wyoming will struggle to score points against this stour Bulldogs defense. Fresno State should win this game comfortably in what should be a low scoring game. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show O/u Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (207) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (208). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-18 |
Dodgers v. Brewers OVER 7.5 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
102 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (901) and the Milwaukee Brewers (902) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Gio Gonzalez. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (95-72) has won seven of their last eight games after dispatching of the Braves in four games in the NLDS with their 6-2 win in Atlanta on Monday. Milwaukee (99-67) has won eleven straight games after they swept the Rockies in three games with their 6-0 win in Colorado on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Brewers shutout the Rockies in the last two games of that series — and they have not allowed more than two runs in each of their last five games. But Milwaukee has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one run in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in their last five contests. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 7.5 range. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers team that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .288 batting average along with a .394 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .957 over that span. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Dodgers have also played 26 of their last 39 games Over the Total after a win by at least four runs. LA stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the number set at 7 or less. The Dodgers have also played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They give the ball to Kershaw who is 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The left-hander has not been quite as good on the road where he sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 2.90 and 1.07 marks in thirteen starts. His opponent’s batting average of .243 on the road is much higher than his .211 mark at home. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Kershaw on the mound. And while he pitched 8 shutout innings in his last start in Game Two of the NLDS against the Braves, the Dodgers have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total with Kershaw pitching after not allowing more than one earned run in his last start. He faces Brewers team that is hitting the ball well. Milwaukee is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .300 batting average along with a .369 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .829 over that span. Lastly, the Brewers are looking to avenge a 21-5 loss in LA to the Dodgers the last time these two teams played back on August 2nd — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road by at least eight runs.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total set in the low 7/7.5 range for this opening game, expect an Over between these two teams swinging hot bats. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (901) and the Milwaukee Brewers (902) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Gio Gonzalez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-18 |
South Florida v. Tulsa UNDER 62 |
Top |
25-24 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the South Florida Bulls (109) and the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (110). THE SITUATION: South Florida (5-0) remained undefeated last Saturday with their 58-42 win at UMass as a 14-point favorite. Tulsa (1-4) has lost four straight games after their 41-26 loss at Houston last Thursday as a +17.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulls have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 31 points — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. South Florida got 302 rushing yards from Jordan Cronkite on just 23 carries in that game — and he will get the ball plenty in this game against a Golden Hurricanes run defense that is 110th in the FBS by allowing 207.4 rushing YPG. This should ensure a running clock for much of this game — the Bulls have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. South Florida surrendered 401 passing yards last week to the Minutemen — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last contest. Second-year head coach Charlie Strong will want a better effort from his defense. South Florida has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing at least 37 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 42 points in their last contest. The Bulls stay on the road this week where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Tulsa has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after two straight losses. The Golden Hurricanes are playing better than their record indicates — they are outgaining their opponents by +16.8 net YPG. But turnovers are doing this team in as they rank 124th in the FBS by averaging -1.4 net turnovers per game. Tulsa turned the ball over three times in their last to the Cougars — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after committing at least three turnovers in their last game. Fourth-year head coach Philip Montgomery is sitting on a scalding hot seat after this poor start — so he has decided to go young at quarterback by naming Seth Boomer his starter tonight in lieu of an injured Luke Skipper who has been dealing with back issues. The redshirt freshman played against Houston last week — but he lacks the mobility of Skipper and is completing only 41.9% of his passes. The Golden Hurricanes will likely lean heavily on their ground game tonight — especially with Shamari Brooks healthy again and able to join Corey Taylor at running back after he missed last week’s game. Running the football will also protect the Tulsa defense that surrendered 312 rushing yards last week. The Golden Hurricanes have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 300 rushing yards in their last game. They allowed Houston to average 7.04 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.25 YPP. Despite these recent numbers, this is an improved Golden Hurricanes defense. They are allowing 380.0 total YPG which ranks 68th in the nation — but this is significantly better than the 528.9 total YPG they allowed last season which was 127th in the FBS. Moving forward, Tulsa has played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow American Athletic Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: I considered Tulsa closely in this situation as I expect South Florida to underperform— but with the new QB under center for the Golden Hurricanes, the Under is a stronger play. Both teams will commit to running the football which will help our Under play. 25* CFB Friday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the South Florida Bulls (109) and the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-18 |
Eagles v. Giants UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
34-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (103) and the New York Giants (104). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-3) has lost two straight games after their 23-21 loss at home to Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point favorite. New York (1-4) has also lost two in a row after their hearts were broken by Graham Gano’s 63-yard field goal which allowed the Panthers to steal a 33-31 victory in Carolina as a 7-point home favorite over the Giants.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a gut check game for both these NFC East teams — and I look for both teams to attempt to impose their will at the line of scrimmage on this short week game. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Eagles have lost these last two games by 5 combined points — and they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing their last two games by 6 points or less. Philly has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. The Eagles are banged up on offense especially with their rushing attack. Running back Jay Ajayi was put on Injured Reserve with his ACL injury while Darren Sproles will remain out for this game hamstring. Corey Clement will play but he is still dealing with a groin — and Philly’s All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson was added the injury list this morning being questionable with an ankle. As it is, Philadelphia is scoring only 20.6 PPG which is 25th in the NFL. Yet despite this attrition, the Eagles are likely to try to run the ball behind Wendell Smallwood against this Giants’ defense that ranks 27th in the league by allowing 124.4 rushing YPG. Philadelphia is still playing stout on the defensive side of the football as they are allowing only 20.8 PPG which is 7th in the NFL. They have not allowed more than 77 rushing yards this season — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in five straight games. This defense ranks second in the league by only allowing 66.4 rushing YPG — and opposing rushers are averaging 2.78 YPC. But the Eagles did give up 298 passing yards last week — yet Philly has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last game. New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Those 31 points they scored against the Panthers were the first time that the Giants reached the 30-point threshold in their last 37 games. But this remains an unbalanced offense even with rookie Saquon Barkley as they are scoring only 20.8 PPG which is 23rd in the NFL while averaging just 75.6 rushing YPG which ranks 28th in the league. Back at home in the Meadowlands, the Giants are scoring only 16.5 PPG while averaging just 311.5 total YPG. With tight end Evan Engram not yet recovered from his knee injury, quarterback Eli Manning has only three viable targets in the passing game in Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard along with Barkley out of the backfield. This lack of diversity should help defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz to dial up a good defensive game plan. Manning did pass for 326 yards last week against the Carolina defense — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards. New York returns home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total. The Giants have also played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog — and this includes them playing eight of their last ten games Under the Total at home as an underdog. And in their last 5 games against fellow NFC East foes, the game finished Under the Total 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: The loser of this game finds themselves in a big hole in the NFC East standings. My expectation of both coaches wanting to be physical and win at the line of scrimmage should translate into both teams looking establish their rushing attack — and this will shorten the length of the game. 25* NFL NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (103) and the New York Giants (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-18 |
Coyotes v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Coyotes (55) and the Anaheim Ducks (56). THE SITUATION: Arizona (0-2-0) takes the ice again after their 1-0 loss at home to the Ducks on Saturday. Anaheim (3-0-0) followed that victory up with a 3-2 win over Detroit in overtime on Monday to keep their perfect start to the season going.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Coyotes have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after being shutout — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss by just one goal to one of their Pacific Division rivals. Arizona was second-to-last in the NHL last year by scoring only 2.51 Goals-Per-Game. The team hoped they jumpstarted their offensive production in the offseason when they gave up on the underachieving Max Domi by trading him to Montreal for another young forward in Alex Galchenyuk. The plan was to put the winger at center to let the 24-year old anchor their second-line. The former 30-goal scorer found the back of the net 19 times last year in the Canadiens lost season. But these plans have been delayed with Galchenyuk with a lower body injury. The Coyotes have yet to score this season — but they have allowed only four goals in their two games this year. Arizona has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing their last two games Under the Total. This team can still rely on their underrated goaltender Antti Raanta who had an outstanding .930 save percentage last year with a 2.24 Goals-Against-Average last year. Raanta registered a Quality Start (either by stopping at least .917 of the shots he faced or not allowing more than two goals while posting a save percentage of at least .885) percentage of .696 last year so he offers us a very good chance to see another low-scoring game tonight. The Coyotes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Anaheim has played 14 of their last 18 home games Under the Total after a victory by just one goal — and they have played 13 of their last 15 home games after a win in overtime. Led by goalie John Gibson, the Coyotes are playing outstanding defense as they have allowed only four goals in their three games so far this season. The Ducks have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in two straight games. Gibson is 2nd in the NHL with a .924 save percentage for all qualifying goals over the last three seasons — and he boasted a 1.95 Goals-Against-Average with a .937 save percentage after the All-Star Break with both numbers being the best in the league during that stretch. Anaheim struggled to score last year by averaging only 2.52 Goals-Per-Game which was in the league and the worst of all sixteen teams that made the playoffs. They are missing their aging veteran forwards in Ryan Kesler, Patrick Eaves and Corey Perry for an extended period of time while banking on a trio of rookie forwards to fill in the gaps. This Anaheim team has seen the Under go 21-8-2 in their last 31 games against fellow Pacific Division opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Head coach Rick Toccet has had plenty of time to game plan against the new crop of rookies contributing at forward for the Ducks. Expect another low-scoring game. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Coyotes (55) and the Anaheim Ducks (56). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-18 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and C.C. Sabathia. THE SITUATION: Boston (110-55) seized a 2-1 lead in this ALDS last night with their 16-1 beatdown against the Yankees. The Red Sox have the opportunity to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a victory — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Red Sox have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a blowout win of at least ten rounds. Furthermore, Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They give the ball to Porcello who is 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 1.27 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .253 in eighteen starts as compared to his 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 at home. Porcello also tends to struggle in night games where he has a 4.64 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The Red Sox have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total with Porcello pitching after a victory on their last game. He faces a Yankees team that has played 7 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. New York (102-64) has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last contest. The Yankees have also played 19 of their last 28 home games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total. Aaron Boone has issues with his bullpen after the logged in 6 innings last night after he used his bullpen for 4 innings in each of the first two games of this series. New York has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen pitched at least 6 innings — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after having their bullpen pitch at least 4 innings in three straight games. They counter with Sabathia who is 9-7 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The Yankees have played 5 straight games Over the Total when Sabathia is pitching after a game where they allowed at least five runs. He faces a hot-hitting Red Sox lineup that is scoring 8.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .301 batting average along with a .384 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .897 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 encounters in Yankee Stadium Over the Total. With the Bronx Bombers facing the possible end of their season tonight, expect another high-scoring game. 25* MLB Red Sox-Yankees’ O/U A-List Special with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and C.C. Sabathia. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-08-18 |
Redskins v. Saints OVER 51 |
Top |
19-43 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (477) and the New Orleans Saints (478). THE SITUATION: Washington (2-1) returns to the field after their bye week after upsetting Green Bay two weeks ago by a 31-17 score as a 2.5-point underdog. New Orleans (3-1) enters this game coming off their 33-18 win at New York against the Giants as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. New Orleans generated 389 yards in that contest with the Giants — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Drew Brees leads a powerful offense that is scoring 34.2 PPG while averaging 418.2 total YPG — and they get running back Mark Ingram back from his four-game suspension which gives them a power running back while keeping the electric Alvin Kamara fresh. But the Saints’ defense has been another story — and they are allowing their visitors to score 33.0 PPG along with averaging 428.0 total YPG in the Superdome this season. New Orleans has played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Saints have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on Monday Night Football. The New Orleans lack of a pass rush will likely give Washington quarterback Alex Smith plenty of time to pick apart their secondary. The Saints are fourth from the bottom of the league with just 18 hits on the quarterback and their nine sacks are 12th from the bottom. The Skins have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Washington has also played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total in the month of October. Furthermore, the Skins have played 15 of their last 21 games on the road Over the Total — and this includes them playing seven of their last eight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is in the low-50s for this game. Scoring is up this season with the offseason rule changes helping the offenses in protecting the quarterback and in being more liberal in defining what a catch is. Plenty of these games are still finishing below the number — but both these teams tend to play higher-scoring games so I do expect this to be a shootout. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (477) and the New Orleans Saints (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-08-18 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 |
Top |
16-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the New York Yankees (914) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: New York (102-65) evened this series at 1-1 on Saturday with their 6-2 victory over the Red Sox in Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win by at least four runs. New York has also played 6 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 9 straight games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against fellow AL East opponents. They give the ball to Severino who is 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in thirty-two starts this season. The right-hander did not allow an earned run when he pitched the first 4 innings of the Yanks’ AL Wild Card playoff game against the A’s — but New York has played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total when Severino comes off a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. The Over is also 18-7-1 in the Yankees’ last 26 home games with Severino on the hill — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Severino facing the Red Sox. Boston (109-55) is still scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .282 batting average along with a .362 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .862 over that span. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 4 games after a loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Over is also 18-6-2 in Boston’s last 26 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after an off-day. Furthermore, the Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Eovaldi who is 6-7 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander sees his ERA skyrocket to a 5.14 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in thirteen road starts. Eovaldi also has a 5.11 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 at night. The Over is 4-1-1 in Boston’s last 6 games with Eovaldi facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Bronx Bombers team that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting a .274 batting average with a .350 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .866 during that span. The Yankees have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a high-scoring game between these two teams in a pivotal third game of this American League Divisional Series. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the New York Yankees (914) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-08-18 |
Astros v. Indians OVER 8.5 |
Top |
11-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 1:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (915) and the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Houston (105-59) has taken a 2-0 lead in this ALDS with their 3-1 victory over the Indians in the second game of this series on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Indians return home for the first time since September 23rd in this must-win elimination game. Cleveland has seen the Over go 4-0-2 in their last 6 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Indians have also played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Additionally, the Over is 8-3-2 in Cleveland’s last 13 games after a loss — and the Over is 6-2-2 in their last 10 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They give the ball to Clevinger who is 13-8 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.14 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in seventeen starts. The Indians have seen the Over go 10-4-2 in their last 16 home games with Clevinger on the hill. The Cleveland bullpen is struggling as of late as well. Over their last five games, the Indians’ bullpen has an ERA of 8.82 — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of at least 6.50 over their last five games. Houston (105-59) has played 14 of their last 18 playoff games Over the Total in the ALDS. The Astros have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Keuchel who is 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in thirty-four starts. The lefty has not been as effective on the road where he sees his WHIP rise to a 1.34 mark with a .273 opponent’s batting average in eighteen starts as compared to his 1.29 WHIP with a .253 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. The Over is 3-1-2 in Houston’s last 6 road games with Keuchel on the hill. He faces an Indians team that has seen the Over go 12-3-4 in their last 19 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be playing with a sense of desperation with their season on the line. Expect a higher-scoring game. 25* MLB American League Divisional Series Playoff Total with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (915) and the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-18 |
Cowboys v. Texans UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
16-19 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the Houston Texans (476). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-2) looks to build off their 26-24 win over Detroit yesterday as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (1-3) earned their first victory of the season last Sunday with their 37-34 win in overtime at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Dallas generated 414 yards of offense last week against the Lions — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But now the Cowboys go back on the road where they are scoring just 10.5 PPG along with averaging only 267.5 total YPG. Dallas has played 21 of their last 27 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Cowboys defense surrendered 382 total yards last week — but they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Dallas defense is underrated — they are allowing only 20.0 PPG along with just 294.0 total YPG on the road so far this season. They are third in the NFL in sacks led by linebacker DeMarcus Lawrence who leads the league with his 5.5 sacks. He should feast on this terrible Texans offensive line that has allowed 45 hits to the quarterback which is the most in the NFL. Deshaun Watson has been sacked 17 times this year which is the second most in the NFL. He did pass for 375 yards while leading his offense to 466 total yards against the suspect Colts’ defense — but Houston has played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Texans have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while the underachieving Houston defense gave up 478 yards last week, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas lacks down-the-field targets at wide receiver while the Texans have one of the least capable offensive lines in the league. With these two offenses, both burdened by significant flaws, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the Houston Texans (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-18 |
Dodgers v. Braves OVER 7.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Sean Newcomb. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (94-71) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Friday with their 3-0 victory over the Braves in the second game of this NLDS.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have surrendered a run so far in this series — but that will likely change with this game being played back in Atlanta. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 12 games after not shutting out their last opponent — and they have played 4 straight Overs after shutting out their opponents in two straight games. The Dodgers have only given up two combined runs in their last four games — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in four straight games. They give the ball to Buehler who is 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The right-hander has not been as effective when on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.45 mark along with a 1.12 WHIP. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with Buehler pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a Braves team that has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta (90-74) has played 24 of their last 35 home games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one run. The Braves have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after being shutout in two straight games. Atlanta has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an off-day. They return home for the first time since September 23rd — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total after being on the road for at least seven days. The Braves have played 6 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 18 games in the playoffs, Atlanta has seen 13 of these contests finish Over the Total. They counter with Newcomb who is 12-9 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in thirty-one starts. The left-hander has struggled at home where his ERA rises to a 5.12 mark with a 1.44 WHIP in fourteen starts. The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Newcomb facing a team with a winning record. It is not likely he will get bailed out by the Atlanta bullpen as they have a 4.24 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP in their last seven games. The Dodgers are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over the last seven games with a .293 batting average along with a .367 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .904 over that span. LA has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 7-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Under might be tempting after the Braves failed to score in these first two games but expect this to be the highest-scoring game in this series. 25* MLB National League Divisional Series Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Sean Newcomb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-18 |
Fresno State v. Nevada UNDER 59 |
Top |
21-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Fresno State Bulldogs (365) and the Nevada Wolf Pack (366). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (3-1) enters this game coming off a 49-29 win over Toledo last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite. Nevada (3-2) looks to build off their 28-25 upset win at the Air Force as a 3.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have seen the Under go 20-7-1 in their last 28 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Fresno State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs generated 554 yards of offense in that victory over the Rockets — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Fresno State has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 40 points in their last game. The Bulldogs are scoring 45.0 PPG while averaging 439.7 total YPG this season — but those numbers drop to just a 26.0 PPG scoring average along with 359.5 total YPG in their two games on the road this year. This will be the third game on the road over their last four games for this Fresno State team — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total away from home. The Bulldogs play outstanding defense as they are holding their opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 314.7 total YPG — and that latter number drops to just 288.5 total YPG when on the road. Additionally, Fresno State has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents. Nevada has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. Now this team returns home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. The Wolf Pack have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Nevada held the Falcons to just 250 yards of offense in that win — and they limited them to only 3.57 Yards-Per-Play. The Wolfpack have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3.75 YPP in their last game. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, the game has finished Under the Total 9 times for Nevada.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. Expect a lower scoring game than expected between these two Mountain West Conference rivals. 25* CFB ESPN-U Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Fresno State Bulldogs (365) and the Nevada Wolf Pack (366). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-18 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-119 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (953) and the Boston Red Sox (954) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and David Price. THE SITUATION: Boston (109-54) won the opening game of this series last night by a 5-4 score over the Yankees.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and the Over is 9-1-2 in their last 12 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is now 6-0-2 in Boston’s last 8 games at home in Fenway Park. They give the ball to Price who is 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in thirty starts. The left-hander sees his ERA rise to a 3.89 mark when pitching at night. The Over is also 3-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 home games with Price facing the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers are scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .279 batting average along with a .347 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .853 OPS over that span. Additionally, NYY has played 4 straight games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Boston bullpen is also struggling as they have a 6.75 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP over their last seven games. New York (101-63) has played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Yankees have also played 7 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Tanaka who is 12-6 with a 3.75 RRA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-seven starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 3.92 mark for his twenty-one starts at night. Tanaka struggled in his two starts in Fenway this year where he was saddled with a 6.52 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .310. This is Tanaka’s first start since September 26th — and the Yankees have played 4 straight Overs when Tanaka is pitching with at least nine days between starts. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .300 batting average along with a .382 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .902.
FINAL TAKE: Expect another high scoring game between these two teams. 10* MLB NY Yankees-Boston O/U TBS-TV Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (953) and the Boston Red Sox (954) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and David Price. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-18 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 7.5 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:32 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (905) and the Boston Red Sox (906) listing both starting pitchers J.A. Happ and Chris Sale. THE SITUATION: New York (101-62) reached the American League Divisional Series with their 7-2 victory over the A’s on Wednesday in the AL Wildcard Game. Boston (108-54) takes the field again after their 10-2 win over the Yankees last Sunday in their last game of the regular season.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a victory — and the Over is 8-1-2 in their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in Boston’s last 7 games after an off-day — and the Over is 12-3-2 in their last 17 opening games of a new series. Additionally, the Red Sox have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Sale who is 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in twenty-seven starts. The left-hander has only pitched 17 innings since dealing with a shoulder injury — and he has experienced a decrease in velocity since returning to the mound. The Boston coaching staff feel this velocity drop was due to a mechanical error that they have since corrected but this remains in doubt until he takes the hill. The Red Sox have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total with Sale facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Yankees lineup that is scoring 8.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .280 batting average with a .350 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .906 during that span. New York has seen the Over go 13-6-2 in their last 21 games against left-handed starting pitches. The Yankees have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a victory. New York has also played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Yankees have played 6 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Happ who is 17-6 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in thirty-one starts. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 7.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .288 batting average along with a .377 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 881 over that span. Furthermore, the Over is 27-11-2 in Boston’s last 40 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total stabilizing in the 7.5 range, expect at least eight combined runs to be scored. 10* MLB NY Yankees-Boston TBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (905) and the Boston Red Sox (906) listing both starting pitchers J.A. Happ and Chris Sale. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-18 |
Rockies v. Brewers OVER 8 |
|
0-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 4:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (909) and the Milwaukee Brewers (910) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Jhoulys Chacin. Milwaukee (97-67) won the opening game of this best-of-five series yesterday by a 3-2 score in 10 innings over the Rockies yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Brewers entered the 9th inning with a 2-0 lead before seeing their bullpen blow that save. Milwaukee has then played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a blown save in their last game. The Brewers won their previous game this week on Monday when they traveled to Chicago to defeat the Cubs in the NL Central tie-breaker game by a 3-1 score. Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total after winning their last two games by two runs or less. The Brewers have also played 23 of their last 37 games Over the Total after playing their last two games Under the Total. They give the ball to Chacin who is pitching on short rest after he pitched 5 2/3 innings in that game on Monday. The right-hander has a 15-8 record with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in thirty-five starts — but he has struggled at home with a 3.79 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP in thirteen starts. Milwaukee has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Chacin facing a team with a winning record. Colorado (92-73) counters with Anderson who is 7-8 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in thirty-two starts. He sees his ERA rise to a 5.02 mark in his fifteen starts on the road. Since the All-Star Break, the left-hander has an ERA of 6.06 with a 1.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273. The Rockies have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with Anderson pitching against a team with a winning record. Colorado has also played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total with Anderson pitching as an underdog. He faces a Brewers team that has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitches. The Rockies’ bullpen will likely get plenty of work in this game. But the Colorado bullpen has already logged-in 14 1/3 innings of work in their last three games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 13 combined innings in their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: Expect this to be a high-scoring game this afternoon. 10* MLB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (909) and the Milwaukee Brewers (910) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Jhoulys Chacin. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-18 |
Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (903) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (904) listing both starting pitchers Mike Foltynewicz and Hyun-Jin Ryu. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (90-72) enters the postseason having lost four of their last five games after their 3-1 loss in Philadelphia on Sunday. Los Angeles (92-71) has won four straight games after they won their 163rd game tie-breaker on Monday with their 5-2 win over Colorado.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Atlanta has played 19 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than three runs in their last game. The Braves have only scored one run in their last two games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than one run in two straight games. But Atlanta has not allowed more than four runs in their last eight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight games. Additionally, the Braves have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set no higher than 7 — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Foltynewicz who is 13-10 with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in thirty-one starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sees his ERA drop to a 2.48 mark. Atlanta has played 3 straight road games Under the Total with Foltynewicz pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They face a Dodgers team that they defeated back in Atlanta by a 4-1 score as a money-line underdog in their last meeting back on July 29th. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when avenging a loss as a road favorite. The Under is 11-5-1 in the Dodgers’ last 17 games after an off-day. The Under is also 17-5-1 in LA’s last 23 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 playoff games at home. They counter with Ryu who is 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in fifteen starts this season. After coming back from an injury this summer, the left-hander sported a 1.88 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .156. In his nine starts at home, Ryu has a nearly unhittable 1.15 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .212. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Ryu facing a team with a winning record. He faces this slumping Braves lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .205 batting average along with a .260 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .548 during the span. Atlanta has played 4 straight road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: I suspect Atlanta will struggle to score in their first postseason game with their new generation of players. And don’t underestimate the impact of the sun setting in LA which notoriously places shadows on the field for the first-half of these late afternoon west coast games. 25* MLB Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (903) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (904) listing both starting pitchers Mike Foltynewicz and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-18 |
Colts v. Patriots UNDER 52 |
Top |
24-38 |
Loss |
-108 |
24 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the New England Patriots (302). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (1-3) has lost two straight games after their 37-34 loss in overtime at home to Houston on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. New England (2-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 38-7 blowout win over Miami on Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots got back to their winning ways by running the football — they ran the ball 40 times of 175 yards led by their rookie running back Sony Michel who contributed 112 yards on 25 carries. This helped New England generate 449 yards of offense overall while having them control the clock for 36:22 minutes of that game. The Patriots have 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last contest. New England has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. This effort should renew some confidence for this team — but after failing to meet point spread expectations, they should appreciate that they still have little margin for error. Running the football to burn time off the clock protects the defense which has been a key part of the Patriots’ success over the years. They are once-again playing “bend but don’t break” defense as they are allowing only 21.0 PPG despite surrendering 348.0 total YPG. Moving forward, New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Patriots have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Tom Brady may not have the services of tight end Rob Gronkowski who is questionable for this game with an ankle injury. While Julian Edelman returns from his four-game suspension, a limited Gronkowski leaves this Pats’ offense without credible down-the-field threats (with the adjective “credible” serving to exclude the recently acquired Josh Gordon). New England has played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of October — and in their last 5 appearances for Thursday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total 4 times. Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the month of October — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their previous two games. The Colts have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Andrew Luck offered a rebuttal to those critics that were wondering “what was wrong” with him (after head coach Frank Reich chose to have backup Jacoby Brissett throw a long Hail Mary pass the previous week) by completing 40 of 62 passes for 464 yards with four touchdown passes against the Texans defense. But Luck’s weapons are injured with his favorite tight end Jack Doyle out for this game with a hip injury and his top wide receiving threat in T.Y. Hilton doubtful with a hamstring. Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Colts defense surrendered a whopping 466 yards to Houston in that overtime loss — but they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Indy does get running back Robert Turbin back on offense which should help their ground game along with the advance of their goal of burning time off the clock to keep Brady off the field. Lastly, Indianapolis has played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total set past the 50-point threshold as the oddsmakers adjust for the spike in passing numbers which has led to an increase in scoring, expect this game to finish below that number. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the New England Patriots (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-18 |
Georgia State v. Troy UNDER 55 |
Top |
20-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia State Panthers (305) and the Troy Trojans (306). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (2-3) snapped their three-game losing streak last week with their 46-14 win over UL-Monroe last Saturday as a 6-point underdog. Troy (4-1) has won four in a row after their 45-21 win over Coastal Carolina as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Redhawks to just 262 yards of offense. Georgia State held the ball for 38:12 minutes in the game which will they will likely try to use as a blueprint for this game. The Panthers score only 14.5 PPG on the road so far this season while averaging just 330.5 total YPG. Georgia State has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after winning their last game by at least 20 points. The Panthers have also played 9 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total. And while Georgia State generated 487 yards of offense last week, they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Panthers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of October. Troy has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. They stay at home where they are limiting their opponents to just 340.0 total YPG — and they have played 5 straight home games Under the Total as a favorite laying 14.5 to 21 points. The Trojans rushed for 282 yards in that win over the Chanticleers last week — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, Troy has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 to 56 point range. The Trojans have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 20 games in Sun Belt Conference play, the Under is 14-5-1.
FINAL TAKE: Expect this to be a lower scoring game in this conference showdown. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN-U Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia State Panthers (305) and the Troy Trojans (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-18 |
A's v. Yankees OVER 8 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (939) and the New York Yankees (940) (do not list the starting pitchers — I will explain below). THE SITUATION: Oakland (97-65) begins the postseason coming off a 5-4 loss in Los Angeles to the Angels on Sunday. New York (100-62) looks to rebound from a 10-2 loss in Boston on Sunday to close out their regular season. It will all be on the line for both teams in this single-elimination showdown of the American League Wildcard Playoffs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Now this team stays on the road where the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games — and the Over is 6-2-1 in Oakland’s last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The A’s have also played 4 straight road games Over the Total when playing in the playoffs. Manager Bob Melvin has decided to rely on his bullpen for this single elimination with Liam Hendriks pitching the opening inning. The right-hander has a 2.08 ERA in his eight starts in these bullpen games this season — but that spans only 8 2/3 innings of work. Don’t let those nice numbers derived from a staggeringly low sample size fool you: Melvin is resorting to his bullpen because he lacks credible options for a traditional starting pitcher. Injuries have devastated what was never an above average group even at full strength. This is a strategy of last resort. Hendriks has a road ERA of 7.45 with a 1.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .325 — albeit in just 9 2/3 innings of work. The sample size for Hendriks’ road appearances this season should also be taken with a grain of a salt — but it is not an encouraging set of circumstances that the Oakland’s A’s first inning pitcher has yet to pitch even 10 innings in a hostile environment this season. Hendriks has pitched 178 2/3 innings on the road in his career; he has an ugly 6.45 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .336 over that span. Granted, the A’s have a good bullpen — but Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total this season with Hendriks making the start where he does not complete at least 4 innings of work. And while Melvin has the benefit of using his starting pitchers in pen as well, his choices are not particularly attractive which is why he is in this predicament, to begin with (and he even left starter Mike Fiers off the roster). The A’s bullpen has pitched a combined 20 innings over their last three games — and they have played 29 of their last 48 games Over the Total when their bullpen has logged-in at least 13 innings over their last three starts. These pitchers will be facing a Yankees team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .278 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .882. New York returns home to Yankee Stadium for the first time since September 23rd — and they have seen the Over go 12-4-1 in their last 17 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Bronx Bombers have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Severino who is 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in thirty-two starts. Severino has struggled since the All-Star Break as he has been saddled with a 5.57 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .341 in twelve starts. A loss of some of the bite on his fastball has made the effectiveness of his cutter decline. The right-hander has been better as of late by not allowing more than two earned runs in three straight starts. But the Yankees have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total with Severino pitching after not allowing more than two earned runs in two straight starts. New York has also played 6 straight home games Over the Total with Severino on the hill. Remember that Severino got shelled for three runs in just 1/2 innings of work when he started at home against the Twins in last year’s AL Wildcard Playoff game. He is facing a feisty A’s team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while also scoring 5.5 Runs-Per-Game on the road. Furthermore, Oakland has played 5 straight road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 44-19-4 in their last 67 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less.
FINAL TAKE: While the first three postseason games have been low-scoring contests, expect this contest to be the highest-scoring playoff game we have witnessed so far in this nascent postseason. Do not list Hendricks nor Severino as the necessary starting pitchers as a condition for your wager either. While I identified some negative data on Liam Hendriks, we are not relying on his 1 inning of work as a primary argument for this play. Even if there is only a small chance that the A’s make a change to another starting pitcher for this game, Hendriks’ absence does not change our Over play. 25* MLB Playoff Wildcard Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (939) and the New York Yankees (940) (not listing the starting pitchers as a condition for this wager). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-02-18 |
Rockies v. Cubs OVER 7 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-123 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (937) and the Chicago Cubs (938) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: Chicago (91-72) lost their opportunity to be the top seed in the National League playoffs yesterday with their 3-1 loss at home to Milwaukee in the tie-breaker game to determine the winner of the National League Central. Colorado (91-72) lost their tie-breaker game yesterday with the Dodgers yesterday with their 5-2 loss in Los Angeles. These Monday losers now play to keep their season alive in this single elimination wildcard playoff game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Colorado was held hitless for the first 5 2/3 innings of their game yesterday before finally managing four base hits — but they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a game where they had no more than four hits. The Over is still 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 playoff games. And in their last 38 road games priced in the +/- 125 price range, the Rockies have played 23 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Freeland who is 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in thirty-three starts. But the sabermetrics indicate those numbers are overvaluing the left-hander as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.35 and 4.22 moving forward. Colorado has also played 8 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with Freeland pitching as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. Manager Bud Black does not have a bevy of great options at his disposal if and when he goes to his relievers given the Rockies’ bullpen ERA of 4.62 along with a 1.35 WHIP this season. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a divisional rival as a home favorite. Additionally, the Cubs have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams that did not score more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Lester who is 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in thirty-two starts. Lester comes off a strong outing where he did not allow an earned run in 6 innings of work against the Pirates — but the Cubs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Lester looking to follow up a Quality Start. Chicago has also played 22 of their last 32 games Over the Total int he second half of the season with Lester on the hill. He will face a Rockies lineup that is still scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .294 batting average along with a .357 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .995 during that span even after yesterday's tough day at the plate. Lastly, the Cubs are looking to avenge two straight upset losses at home to the Rockies back in early May where they were big money line favorites priced higher than -160 — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with double revenge from two upset losses were money-line home favorites priced at least at -150.
FINAL TAKE: With the all-or-nothing stakes of this single elimination contest, expect a higher scoring game even with both managers willing to use their other starting pitchers in this wildcard game. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (937) and the Chicago Cubs (938) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-18 |
Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
27-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the Denver Broncos (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (3-0) remained undefeated last week with their 38-27 win over San Francisco last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-14 loss at Baltimore as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Total is in the mid-50s for this game given the dynamic play of quarterback Patrick Mahomes who is leading an offense that is scoring 39.3 PPG. He led the Chiefs to score 42 points in their previous game in Pittsburgh — but Kansas City has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. And while the Chiefs have played all three of their games Over the Total this year, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. KC has generated 449 and 384 yards in each of their last two games — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The Chiefs only rushed the ball for 77 yards last week — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Kansas City surrendered 178 rushing yards to the 49ers — and they have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Chiefs have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games. Denver has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The game plan for Vance Joseph’s team will likely be to run the football to shorten the game and limit the number of offensive possessions that Mahomes and this Chiefs’ offense will have in this game. Rookies Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman have combined to rush for 350 yards — and they join Devontae Booker to form a potent committee of running backs to take the pressure off their QB Case Keenum. But this Broncos offense has scored only 34 combined points over their last two games. Denver did limit the Ravens to rush for only 77 yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Broncos return home where they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Denver has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of October — and the Broncos have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: As last night’s Baltimore-Pittsburgh showdown demonstrated, it does not take much for what looks like an offensive shootout to slow down enough to finish below a combined points total in the 50s. Denver has to run the football to win the Time of Possession battle — and their zeal to accomplish that task should ensure this game finishing below the Total. 25* NFL AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the Denver Broncos (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-18 |
Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7 |
Top |
2-5 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 4:09 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: These two teams need a 163rd game to determine the winner of the National League West. Colorado (91-71) has won nine of their last ten games after they ripped Washington by a 12-0 score yesterday. Los Angeles (91-71) has won six of their last eight contests with their 15-0 victory in San Francisco yesterday. The loser of this game goes on the road in the National League Wildcard game tomorrow while the winner will host Atlanta in a National League Divisional Series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles is swinging hot bats right now — over their last seven games, they are scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .327 batting average along with a .397 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .939 over that span. The Dodgers have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one run against an NL West rival in their last game — and the Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after not allowing more that two runs in their last contest. The Over is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a victory — and Los Angeles has played 26 of their last 38 games Over the Total after a victory by at least four runs. And in their last 19 games after scoring at least nine runs, the Dodgers have played 14 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Buehler who is 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The rookie has been outstanding as of late with a 1.70 ERA over his last eleven starts which helps explain why this Total is set at a low 7 — but Buehler has not been nearly as effective during day games. While Buehler has a 2.13 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .187 in seventeen starts at night, those numbers rise to a 4.91 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .234 in his six appearances in day games. He faces a hot-hitting Rockies team that is scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .322 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 1.043 in those games. Colorado has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 3-0-1 in the Rockies’ last 4 games in the playoffs. They counter with Marquez who is 14-10 with a 3.76 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP in thirty-two starts. Like Buehler, the right-hander has not been as effective during games where he has a 5.16 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in eleven day starts as compared to his 3.11 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .228 during night games. Colorado has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with Marquez pitching as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Rockies’ bullpen might be a weak-link for them as they have a rough 4.63 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP this season.
FINAL TAKE: While both teams will move to another playoff game after this one, there is still plenty at stake since the winner will have a much more favorable positioning in the playoffs moving forward. Both these starting pitchers may have been pitching great down the stretch but both will also be making their playoff debuts with their starts — so nerves may be an issue for at least one of them. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-18 |
Ravens v. Steelers OVER 50 |
|
26-14 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (275) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-1) enters this game coming off a 27-14 win at home hosting Denver last week as a 5.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-1-1) looks to build off their 30-27 upset win at Tampa Bay on Monday night as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games played on a short week Over the Total after playing on Monday Night Football. The Steelers are second in the NFL by averaging 453.3 YPG. But the Steel Curtain defense has also taken a step (or two) back in the wrong direction since losing Ryan Shazier at linebacker. Since he suffered that spinal injury last year, the Steelers have allowed their last ten opponents to score 28.8 PPG. They allowed 455 yards of offense Monday to the Buccaneers — and they have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 7 points or less. Additionally, the Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against fellow AFC North opponents. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a win at home. The Ravens lead the NFL by holding their opponents to just 273.0 total YPG — and that may be scaring some bettors to take the Under. Remember that Baltimore has generated those numbers against Buffalo (with Nathan Peterman at QB), Cincinnati and the Broncos last week who are not exactly the reincarnation of the Bill Walsh 49ers’ offenses. But what might be surprising is that this team is fifth in the NFL by scoring 32.3 PPG. Going back to last season, the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in six of their last eight contests. Baltimore is a perfect 12 for 12 in the Red Zone in translating those opportunities into touchdowns. The Ravens go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total while also playing 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a high-scoring game between these two heated rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (275) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-18 |
Burnley v. Cardiff City UNDER 2.25 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-123 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (2500) and Cardiff (2501). THE SITUATION: Burnley (1-1-4) enters this match coming off a 4-0 win over Bournemouth last Saturday in EPL action. Cardiff (0-2-4) looks to rebound from a 5-0 loss to Manchester City last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Burnley’s four goals last week was quite a surprise when considering they had scored only three goals in their first five matches in the English Premier League. The Clarets’ seized a two-goal lead in the first-half and then saw their forward Ashley Barnes score twice in the final ten minutes of that match against an aggressive and desperate Bournemouth side who have been playing higher scoring matches all season. Burnley finished 7th in the EPL last season due mostly to strong defensive play under manager Sean Dyche. The Cherries were 6th in the EPL by allowing only 39 goals. They have surrendered ten goals so far this season but their early results need to be taken with a grain of salt when considering that they also played the first few weeks of the season while also focused on Europa League matches. That victory over Bournemouth was their first EPL match since getting eliminated from that tournament. They did give up 19 shots to the Cherries but most of those shots were not high-percentage — so the numbers look worse than how it played out. Burnley also got outstanding goalkeeping from Joe Hart in that contest. Moving forward, the Clarets should get back to playing outstanding defense in EPL action. But this is also a side that has scored only two goals in their three matches on the road. Last year, Burnley scored just 36 goals which was 15th in the EPL. Cardiff has surrendered at least three goals in each of their last three matches in the EPL — but those were each against top-six opponents in Arsenal, Chelsea and the reigning champions in Man City last week. They have seen only two combined goals scored in their three matches against non-top-six clubs this season with two of those matches resulting in clean sheets for their defense and keeper Neil Etheridge. The Bluebirds have only scored two goals in their three home matches while netting just three goals overall in their six EPL contests. This is a side that is willing to play ugly to grind out points — they do not want to get into a fast, aggressive contest. Manager Neil Warnock does get an important piece on defense back in Sol Bamba who has been dealing with a separated shoulder. His return to the pitch should help the play of captain Sean Morrison who forms a great back defensive pairing with Bamba when Cardiff is playing at their best.
FINAL TAKE: Cardiff will be desperate to earn their first victory of the season in a campaign where they are already in significant danger of being one of three relegated sides. They cannot expect to score more than one goal in this match — and that will dictate their tactics to be cautious and defensive. Burnley is happy to engage in that style — their four goals last week were an aberration. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (2500) and Cardiff (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-18 |
Ohio State v. Penn State OVER 67 |
Top |
27-26 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (161) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (162). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (4-0) enters this Big Ten showdown coming off a 49-6 win over Tulane last Saturday as a 37.5-point favorite. Penn State (4-0) comes off a 63-24 blowout win at Illinois as a 25.5-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nittany Lions generated 591 yards of offense to eventually overwhelm the Fighting Illini in that contest last week. Penn State has then played 8 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. Furthermore, the Nittany Lions have played 6 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The concern for the Nittany Lions is on the other side of the football as they allowed a weak Illinois offense produce 411 yards of offense. Penn State surrendered 451 yards of offense to begin the season in their narrow win over Appalachian State that was settled in overtime. The Nittany Lions have played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total in Big Ten play. Ohio State has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Buckeyes’ defense flexed their muscles in their win over the Green Wave as they held them to only 263 yards. Ohio State has then played 6 straight games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. On offense, sophomore quarterback Dwayne Haskins completed 20 of his 23 passes for 304 yards with five touchdown passes last week — and the Buckeyes have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. And in their last 7 games on the road, Ohio State has played 6 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played a shootout last year Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams with dynamic offenses. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (161) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (162). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-18 |
Liverpool v. Chelsea OVER 2.75 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (2500) and Chelsea (2501). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (6-0-0) remained unbeaten in the English Premier League last week with their 3-0 victory over Southampton last Saturday. Chelsea (5-1-0) experienced their first blemish to what had been an unbeaten EPL campaign when they traveled to West Ham and left with a 0-0 draw.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This two teams played on Wednesday in the third round of the Carabao Cup which Liverpool hosted at Anfield but Chelsea came away with a 2-1 victory. Not too much should be read into that match with Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp resting his starting four defenders along with stars Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino. Klopp should have a tactical edge in this immediate rematch after getting a look as to how Chelsea manager Maurizio Sarri schemed against Liverpool’s high press approach. The Reds’ have been an offensive juggernaut this season as they have scored fourteen goals in their six matches. Salah has scored only three goals so far this season after finding the back of the net 32 times in his breakout campaign last year. But the deeper metrics for Salah are quite encouraging so the Egyptian superstar may be on the verge of a breakout game. Salah will certainly be motivated to be playing against his former team. Liverpool has also scored eight of their goals on the road — so playing this match at Stamford Bridge should not slow down the Reds’ powerful offensive attack. The Liverpool defense has played well this season — but they have only played one top-six opponent this year in Tottenham which resulted in a 2-1 victory for the Reds playing on the road. Liverpool’s defense was at times too leaky last season — and they perhaps need an upgrade with their central defenders that Chelsea will be able to exploit. The Blues are led by Eden Hazard who is perhaps playing the best soccer in the EPL right now. He scored the winning goal on Wednesday while displaying elite level talent that shined against the Reds’ defenders. Chelsea has scored 14 times this season — and they had found the back of the net at least twice in their first five matches before failing to score last week at West Ham. But now the Blues return back home where they have scored nine times while also allowing three goals in their three matches for average combined goals mark of 4.0. Sarri’s approach with Napoli where he previously served as manager was to prioritize attacking on offense. Sarri has pushed Chelsea’s star midfielder N’Golo Kante higher up the pitch to embrace more of an offensive role as compared to the holding position he has taken over the last few seasons. But the risk of these tactics is that they are vulnerable to pressing sides who can get scoring opportunities from counter-attacks — and this is precisely Clop’s style with Liverpool.
FINAL TAKE: Both sides should score at least once in this match — at least a 2-1 result is likely. This game has the makings of an exciting, high-scoring contest. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (2500) and Chelsea (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-18 |
Virginia v. NC State UNDER 52.5 |
Top |
21-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 12:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Cavaliers (143) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (144). THE SITUATION: Virginia (3-1) enters this game coming off a dominant 27-3 victory over Louisville last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. NC State (4-0) remained undefeated last season with a 37-20 victory at Marshall as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers flexed their muscles on defense against the Cardinals as they held them to just 214 yards of offense. This strong defensive effort should carry over to this game as Virginia has played 31 of their last 43 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Furthermore, Virginia has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 275 yards. The Cavaliers outgained Louisville by +187 net yards — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. Overall, Bronco Mendenhall’s team is limiting their opponents to just 16.7 PPG along with only 297.5 total YPG. But generating points could be an issue for this Virginia team that is playing just their second true road game this year. In their first true road game at Indiana, the Cavaliers managed only 294 yards which resulted in just 16 points. Virginia has played 14 of their last 19 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. NC State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Dave Doeren’s team is also playing outstanding defense as they are rank 9th in the FBS by allowing only 13.3 PPG. The Wolfpack have surrendered only four touchdowns this season. On offense, NC State generated 502 yards last week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Wolfpack have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against fellow ACC opponents — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. NC State returns home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying no more than 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: In the last 7 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 5 times. With both these teams playing very good on the defensive side of the football, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CFB ACC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Cavaliers (143) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-18 |
Indians v. Royals UNDER 8.5 |
|
14-6 |
Loss |
-129 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (925) and the Kansas City Royals (926) listing both starting pitchers Mike Clevinger and Ian Kennedy. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (57-102) has won four straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night over the Indians by a 2-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cleveland (89-70) has lost two of their last three games after that loss last night. The Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games on the road — and the Under is 21-10-3 in the Indians’ last 34 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They give the ball to Clevinger who is 12-8 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-one starts. Over his last five starts, Clevinger has a 1.82 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where they have a 2.99 ERA along with a .211 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts as compared to his 3.14 ERA and a .237 opponent’s batting average at home. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games with Clevinger on the hill — and the Indians have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in Kansas City with Clevinger on the hill. Kansas City (57-102) has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored at least three runs. The Royals have only allowed one run in each of their last two games — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Kennedy who is 3-8 with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander has a 2-1 record with a 3.00 ERA over his last five starts. Kennedy has also been more effective at home where he has a 4.42 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in ten starts as compared to his 4.76 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .272 on the road. The Royals have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with Kennedy on the hill. He faces an Indians team that has seen the Under go 21-8-2 in their last 31 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With both these starting pitchers ending this season on good runs, expect a lower scoring game. 10* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (925) and the Kansas City Royals (926) listing both starting pitchers Mike Clevinger and Ian Kennedy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-18 |
Vikings v. Rams UNDER 50 |
Top |
31-38 |
Loss |
-126 |
29 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-1-1) looks to bounce-back on a short week after being upset on Sunday at home against Buffalo by a 27-6 score despite being a big 16.5-point favorite in that game. Los Angeles (3-0) remained undefeated last week after winning the “Battle of Los Angeles” with their 35-23 victory over the Chargers at home as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams defense has been outstanding this season by allowing only 12.0 PPG along with just 296.0 total YPG. Los Angeles is dealing with injuries in their secondary with cornerback Aqib Talib out with an ankle injury and Marcus Peters questionable with a calf issue. But with Aaron Donald and now Ndamukong Suh leading an outstanding defensive line, the Rams defense is not giving opposing quarterbacks much time in the pocket to throw the ball down field. The Rams were 4th in the NFL with 48 sacks last season without Suh — the former Dolphins’ defensive tackle along with Donald accounted for a whopping 68.5 pressures on the quarterback last year. Los Angeles did allow 7.12 Yards-Per-Play to the Chargers in their victory last week — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Furthermore, the Rams outgained the Chargers by +165 net yards after dominating Arizona the previous week by outgaining them by +295 net yards. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +150 net YPG. Additionally, the Rams have played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota (1-1-1) has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Vikings only ran the ball six times in that game for 14 yards with their star running back Dalvin Cook dealing with a hamstring injury that he leaves him questionable for this game being played on a short week. Minnesota is getting solid production from their new quarterback Kirk Cousins who completed 40 of 55 passes for 296 yards in that loss — but Mike Zimmer has to be displeased with his run-to-pass ratio as a defensive-minded head coach. Look for the Vikings to attempt to win this game on the line-of-scrimmage — which will burn time off the clock — as they did last year when the dominated these Rams by a 24-7 score where they only allowed 254 yards of offense. Minnesota is holding their opponents to only 323.0 total YPG - but this number could get even better moving forward when considering that the Vikings led the NFL by holding their opponents to only 275.9 total YPG last year. Zimmer’s teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game when the Vikings passed for at least 250 yards. They also have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Minnesota has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total as the underdog. And in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home, the Vikings have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Additionally, while the Vikings’ star defensive end Everson Griffen will not be playing in this game as he deals with some significant off-the-field issues, Minnesota is still loaded with talent on their deep defensive line (particular on the ends).
FINAL TAKE: This game might be a preview of a future showdown between these two teams in the NFC Playoffs (perhaps the NFC Championship Game). On a short week, I think both head coaches will try to impose their will while sending a message about who is the tougher team by winning a game fought in the trench warfare. That style of play should help this game finish lower-scoring than expected. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-25-18 |
Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Matt Koch. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (88-69) won the opening game of this series last night against the Diamondbacks by a 7-4 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have now played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. They give the ball to Buehler who is 7-5 with a 2.74 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in his rookie season. The right-hander has a 1.58 ERA with a 0.86 WHIO in his last ten starts along with a 2.08 ERA in his last five starts. The Dodgers have played 5 straight games Under the Total with Buehler facing a team with a winning record. He should have another strong outing against this Diamondbacks team that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .193 batting average along with a .214 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .573 over that span. Arizona (79-78) saw their bullpen blow a save last night — and they have played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after blowing a save in their last game. The Diamondbacks are playing their eighth straight game at home tonight — and they have played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total after playing at least their last five previous games at home. Arizona has also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total against fellow NL West opponents. They counter with Koch who is 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.71 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP this season. The Under is 6-2-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 9 home games with Koch on the mound. He faces a Dodgers team that has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. Expect another low scoring game between these two teams. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (962) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Matt Koch. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-24-18 |
Steelers v. Bucs OVER 54 |
Top |
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (489) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1-1) is still looking for their first win of the season after losing at home to Kansas City by a 42-37 score despite being 4.5-point favorites in that game last Sunday. Tampa Bay (2-0) looks to continue their success after they upset Philadelphia at home last week by a 27-21 score as a 3-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Steelers are heavily dependent on Big Ben Roethlisberger and their passing game with running back Le’Veon Bell still holding out. More passing generally means more stoppage of play which leads to more plays and possessions on offense with more scoring opportunities for both teams. The opposite dynamic was in play last night with Detroit committed to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep Tom Brady off the field. Pittsburgh will likely prepare to play a high-scoring game tonight. The Steelers have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Roethlisberger tossed 60 passes last week — completing 39 of them for 452 yards with three touchdown passes while leading an offense that totaled 475 yards overall. Pittsburgh has played 4 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 22 of their last 34 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. But the Pittsburgh defense surrendered 449 yards to the Chiefs in that loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Pittsburgh really misses their injured linebacker Ryan Shazier. They have allowed 29.0 PPG since his scary neck injury last year after holding their previous seven opponents to only 17.7 PPG in Shazier’s last seven games with the team. Moving forward, the Steelers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing the best football of his career as he has passed for more than 400 yards while tossing four TD passes in each of his first two games. With a questionable running game and two rookie cornerbacks starting in the secondary given injuries to incumbent starters Vernon Hargreaves and Brent Grimes, the Buccaneers formula for success will likely remain to be relying on Fitzpatrick’s arm. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. But defense remains a vulnerability of this team after allowing the Eagles to accumulate 412 yards last week — and they have played 11 go their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 4 of the last 5 games Over the Total in the month of September.
FINAL TAKE: Like last night’s New England-Detroit contest also had a high Total above the 50-point threshold. Handicapping Over/Unders requires an appreciation for the expected tempo of the game in question. While I expected the Lions to fully commit to running the football last night which serves to decrease the number of offensive plays and possessions for both teams, the Steelers and Buccaneers are likely to attempt plenty of passes tonight which has the opposite effect. Expect a shootout between these two teams in a league that is seeing higher scores. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (489) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-18 |
Patriots v. Lions UNDER 55 |
Top |
10-26 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (487) and the Detroit Lions (488). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-20 loss at Jacksonville last Sunday as a 2-point favorite. Detroit (0-2) remained winless so far this season last Sunday when they lost in San Francisco by a 30-27 score as a 6-point underdog.
REASON TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: One of the storylines of this game is that rookie head coach Matt Patricia will be facing his former team in the Patriots that he previously served as their defensive coordinator. Patricia certainly knows the New England way as well as Tom Brady and the Patriots’ tendencies — and that will help in scheming again his former team. But Patricia also came to the Lions with a mandate to make this team more physical on both sides of the football — and that starts with running the football. So far in Detroit’s first two games, this mission has been lost. The Lions have only rushed the ball 33 times in two games this season with quarterback Matthew Stafford attempting 52 and 53 passes in their first two games. Well, I think between hell and high water, Patricia is going to commit to his team running the football tonight against his old team — both to finally embrace the blueprint both he and former Patriot brain trust member and now Detroit general manager Bob Quinn both want for this team. Running the football also has the benefit of keeping Brady off the field while also helping his defense by keeping them rested. As it is, the Lions have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing two games where they attempted at least 40 passes. All this passing helped the Lions give up 78 points in their first two games — but they have played 3 straight games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests. Furthermore, while Detroit has surrendered 169 and 190 rushing yards in their first two games, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in two straight games. The Lions did generate 427 yards last week against the 49ers — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total adder gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Additionally, Detroit has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. New England is not clicking on all cylinders on offense after managing only 302 yards last week against the Jaguars. While they faced an outstanding defense last week, this Patriots team is depleted at the wide receiver position — and the recently acquired Josh Gordon is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury after he came over in that trade with Cleveland. New England did allow 480 yards last week in that loss but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss while also playing 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And in their last 6 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, the Patriots have played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Total opened in the 50 range which was already pretty high — but it has since been bet up to the 55 range in many locations. I consider those additional 5 or so points just added value to a strong Under situation given the zeal the Lions should (finally) show in running the darn football. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (487) and the Detroit Lions (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-18 |
Everton v. Arsenal OVER 3.25 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Everton (2500) and Arsenal (2501). THE SITUATION: Everton (1-3-1) enters this match looking to bounce-back from a 3-1 loss to West Ham last Sunday. Arsenal (3-0-2) looks to build off a 2-1 win at Newcastle last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Arsenal has gotten their offense cranked up as they have scored ten goals over their last four matches. First-year manager Unai Emery has found a good combination by inserting Alexandre LaCazette into the starting lineup at forward to form a potent combination with Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang. This pairing has come at the expense of another offensive midfielder in Henrikh Mkhitaryan who has lost playing time since LaCazette entered the starting XI. Emery has a well-defined system — as compared to their previous manager Arsene Wenger — that emphasizes high pressing that looks to trigger continuous pressure against their opposition. But the drawback to this approach is that this can leave their back line vulnerable to counter-attacks — and the Gunners have allowed nine goals already this season. The biggest weakness for this team is an aging defense that lacks a quality central defender — and they are banged up right now with Sean Kolasinac and Laurent Koscielny out with injuries. Emery’s hope is that he can coach up his back four while outscoring their opponents before help can be found in the next transfer window. He did inherit a squad that was tied for third in goals scored in last year’s English Premier League season. Arsenal comes off a high-scoring match midweek as well as they outscored Vorslka in Europa League play on Thursday by a 4-2 score. Everton is also banged up with their defensive back line with Yerry Mina, Michael Keane and Seamus Coleman all dealing with injuries. The Toffees defense was exposed last week after surrendering three goals to a West Ham side that entered that match with only two goals in their first four games. But Everton will get a shot in the arm with the return to the pitch of their dynamic midfielder in Richarlison who missed their last three matches from a red card suspension. The transfer from Watford made an immediate impact with his new team by scoring three times in his first two matches before getting issued that red card. His presence on the pitch makes fellow midfielder Theo Walcott more dangerous as well as forward Cenk Tosun up top. Both of Everton’s first two matches on the road resulted in 2-2 draws — so this is a group that is getting used to playing high-scoring matches. In their three matches with Richarlison starting on the pitch, the Toffees scored two goals in each contest.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a high-scoring affair. Neither of these teams has recorded a clean sheet this season. And in their two English Premier League matches last year, the games saw six and seven combined goals scored both times with Arsenal finding the back of the net five times in both contests. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Everton (2500) and Arsenal (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-18 |
South Alabama v. Memphis OVER 65.5 |
Top |
35-52 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (389) and the Memphis Tigers (390). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (1-2) won their first game of the season last Saturday with their 41-31 win over Texas State as a 10-point favorite. Memphis (2-1) enters this game coming off their 59-22 win over Georgia State as a 28.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: South Alabama will be without their senior quarterback Cole Garvin who has been suspended after getting arrested for public intoxication last week. While that may have compelled many bettors to take the Under, the Jaguars’ offense will be just fine under the leadership of another senior in Evan Orth. The former UAB quarterback transferred to the Jaguars when the Blazers abandoned their football team for a few years but was never able to seize the starting job. But he seems to be growing into the position after leading South Alabama to their win over Texas State last week as he completed 24 of 33 passes for 266 yards with two touchdown passed while adding another 21 yards with his legs. Orth is completing 65.6% of his passes while averaging 9.5 Yards-Per-Carry when he tucks the ball to run with it this season. The Jaguars are averaging 26.7 PPG this year which is almost a touchdown more than what they scored last year. This team has then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight up win. Furthermore, South Alabama forced three turnovers against the Bobcats — and they have then played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after forcing at least three turnovers in their last game. Now the Jaguars go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. South Alabama has also played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. The Jaguars are allowing their opponents to score 38.7 PPG along with 476.3 total YPG — and that is a scary proposition when facing this Memphis team that is scoring 48.7 PPG along with generating 603.0 YPG so far this season. The Tigers have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, while Memphis produced 679 yards of offense last week against the Panthers, they have played 8 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. And in their last 29 games at home, the Tigers have played 21 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis is huge favorites laying more than 30 points in this game. While the Tigers are going to score their share of points (they may approach the Over by themselves), South Alabama should score their share of points as well. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (389) and the Memphis Tigers (390). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-18 |
Washington State v. USC OVER 50.5 |
Top |
36-39 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (309) and the USC Trojans (310). THE SITUATION: Washington State (3-0) won their third straight game last Saturday with their 59-24 win over Eastern Washington as a 20-point favorite. USC (1-2) has lost two straight games after they lost at Texas last Saturday night by a 37-14 score as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cougars offense under head coach Mike Leach has not missed a beat despite moving on from their graduated quarterback from last year in Luke Falk. Graduate transfer Gardner Minshew came in from East Carolina and has stepped in to continue to run the Washington State Air Raid offense at a high level. He completed 45 of 57 passes for 470 yards last week with two touchdowns. The Cougars are scoring 43.7 PPG while averaging 501.0 total YPG so far this season. Washington State should keep their momentum going on offense as they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after both a straight-up win as well as after a point spread victory. The Cougars have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Washington State has raced out to 18 and 24 point leads in their last two games — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after holding at least two touchdown leads at halftime in each of their last two games. The Cougars defense has also been stout so far this year as they have held their three opponents to just 229 total YPG — but they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 250 total YPG in their last three contests. The Washington State defense was 16th in the nation last year by allowing only 323.3 total YPG — but regression is likely for this team after their outstanding defensive coordinator Alex Grinch left to join the Ohio State defensive staff in the offseason. This defense also lost their elite defensive end in Hercules Mata’afa who took his pass rushing talents to the NFL. Now after playing their last two games at home, the Cougars go back on the road to place their most potent offense so far on their schedule. Washington State has played 5 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 20 of their last 26 road games Over the Total as an underdog of fewer than 7 points. USC lost their second game in a row with that loss at Texas — but now they return home for the first time in three weeks where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total while also seeing the Over go 20-7-2 in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. This has been a tough early gauntlet for their true freshman quarterback J.T. Daniels but the former 5-star recruit is showing glimpses of his vast potential. After a tough assignment in Palo Alto against Stanford, Daniels completed 30 of 48 passes for 322 yards in Austin last week against a talented Longhorns defense. The Trojans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Furthermore, while USC has only scored 17 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in each of their last two games while also playing 4 straight games Over the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Lastly, the Trojans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow Pac-12 opponents.
FINAL TAKE: USC will be playing with desperation tonight after losing their last two games. Expect a shootout in Los Angeles tonight between these two teams on national television. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (309) and the USC Trojans (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-18 |
Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 |
|
8-3 |
Loss |
-114 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (953) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Ivan Nova. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (87-66) has won two of their last three games with their 7-0 win over Cincinnati on Wednesday. Pittsburgh (77-74) has won five straight games after they defeated Kansas City by a 2-1 score on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Brewers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow NL Central opponents — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Chacin who is 14-8 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.36 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in nineteen starts. The Brewers have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with Chacin facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Pirates team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Pittsburgh has played 20 of their last 26 home games after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have also played 28 of their last 40 games Under the Total in the month of September. Additionally, the Pirates have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game — and the Under is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is 13-2-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 16 games at home which includes them playing seven straight home games Under the Total when facing a team with a winning record on the road. They counter with Nova who is 9-9 with a 4.07 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in twenty-seven starts. The right-hander has been better at home where he enjoys a 3.04 ERA along with a 1.13 WHIP in thirteen starts. The Under is 13-2-1 in the Pirates’ last 16 home games with Nova facing a team with a winning record — and Pittsburgh has also played 10 of their last 11 home games with Nova pitching as an underdog. Furthermore, the Pirates have played 5 straight Unders with Nova pitching against Milwaukee. Together, these team trends produce our specific 146-36-8 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams that should see both their starting pitchers perform well. 20* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (953) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Ivan Nova. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-18 |
Jets v. Browns UNDER 41 |
Top |
17-21 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 20-12 upset loss at home to Miami last week as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (0-1-1) also looks to rebound from a 21-18 loss in New Orleans as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets fell behind early in their game with the Dolphins as they went into halftime with a 20-0 deficit. Quarterback Sam Darnold did complete 25 of 41 passes for 334 yards — but he also tossed two interceptions. This is a very tough challenge for the rookie since not only is this game being played on a short week against a Gregg Williams-coached defense that will show him plenty of exotic looks but this is his third game in just eleven days which is a very difficult way to start an NFL career. Don’t be surprised if Darnold looks overwhelmed at times in this game. As it is, the Jets have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite against an AFC East rival. New York has also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Now the Jets go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. Cleveland has played 21 of their last 29 home games Under the Total after a loss by less than 6 points. Don’t blame the Browns for that loss in the Big Easy as they held the potent Saints’ offense to just 275 yards of offense. This is a unit that is emerging into one of the better units in the league. Led by second-year defensive end Myles Garrett, Cleveland has already registered 7 sacks this year which is 5th best in the NFL. Darnold did experience trouble with pressure last week against the Dolphins defensive line — so this is a significant area of concern. But the Browns are struggling on the offensive side of the football where their QB Tyrod Taylor has been sacked 10 times. Cleveland has only scored 6 first-half points in their first two games this season which is not a good sign as to how they will start in this game when playing on a short week. The Browns have played 29 of their last 44 home games Under the Total after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half in each of their last two games. They will be facing an underrated Jets’ defense that has held their first two opponents to just 3.38 Yards-Per-Carry. Moving forward, Cleveland has played 11 of their last 14 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 29 of their last 39 home games Under the Total when favored by 3 points or less. The Browns have also played 6 of their last 7 games on Thursday Night Football Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: While the Total is set around the 40 point range, expect points to be hard to come by from both these teams with strong defenses but limited offenses. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-18 |
Tulsa v. Temple UNDER 55 |
|
17-31 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (303) and the Temple Owls (304). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-20 upset loss last Saturday against Arkansas State as a 2-point favorite. Temple (1-2) won their first game the season last Saturday in a 35-14 upset win at Maryland as a 15-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Hurricanes has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, Tulsa has played 5 straight games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September. Now, this Golden Hurricanes travels over 1300 miles out east for this challenging conference game on a short week. Tulsa has played 4 straight games Under the Total playing on the road. And in their last 6 games against fellow American Athletic Conference opponents, the Golden Hurricanes have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Temple has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. The Owls flexed their muscles on defense against the Terrapins as they held them to just 195 yards of offense. Temple has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Now the Owls return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total. And while Temple outgained Maryland by +234 yards in that dominant win, they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least +225 yards.
FINAL TAKE: With both these teams playing on a short week in this early conference showdown, expect a lower scoring contest. 10* CFB Tulsa-Temple ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (303) and the Temple Owls (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-18 |
Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (84-68) has won six of their last seven games with their 3-2 victory over the Rockies last night in the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, in the Dodgers’ last 11 home games against teams with a winning record, they have played 10 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Buehler who is 7-5 with a 2.88 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has thrived at home where he sports a 2.32 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .189 in ten starts. Los Angeles has played 5 straight home games Under the Total with Buehler on the hill. He should pitch well against this Rockies team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .240 batting average along with a .311 On-Base percentage and an OPS of .646 over that span. Colorado (82-69) has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Rockies have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total after a loss by two runs or less. The Under is also 18-6-4 in their last 28 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Colorado has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Anderson who is 6-9 with a 4.82 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in thirty starts. The left-hander has struggled as of late but nine of his last thirteen starts have been at home at Coors Field. Anderson has been better on the road where he owns a 1.23 WHIP and .238 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts as compared to his 1.37 WHIP and .267 opponent’s batting average in sixteen starts at home. Anderson’s last start was very encouraging as he allowed only two earned runs in 6 innings of work at San Francisco. He faces Dodgers team that has seen the Under go 21-8-2 in their last 31 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 137-47-7 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have taken a 1 1/2 lead in the NL West title hunt — expect a low-scoring game between these two teams in the heat of the pennant race. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-17-18 |
Seahawks v. Bears OVER 42 |
|
17-24 |
Loss |
-116 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (289) and the Chicago Bears (290). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-24 loss at Denver last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Chicago (0-1) also looks rebound from a narrow loss after they lost in Green Bay last Sunday night by a 27-24 score as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Seattle did average 6.24 Yards-Per-Play in that loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Furthermore, the Seahawks have played 30 of their last 45 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 47 point range. And in their last 110 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Seattle has play 70 of these games Over the Total. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a narrow loss by 7 points or less against a divisional rival — and they have also played 18 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a point spread cover on the road where they lost the game straight-up as an underdog. Additionally, the Bears have played 26 of their last 39 games at home Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total lower than its 43.5 point start, expect this game to find its way to finish above the number. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (289) and the Chicago Bears (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-17-18 |
Brighton & Hove Albion v. Southampton OVER 2 |
Top |
2-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Brighton and Hove Albion (2500) and Southampton (2501). THE SITUATION: Brighton (1-1-2) returns to English Premier League action today following the international break which they entered with a 2-2 draw with Fulham on September 1st. Southampton has won two straight matches in all events after they defeated Crystal Palace on the road on the first Saturday of the month by a 2-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Glenn Murray scored twice in that win over Fulham — he has found the back of the net now three times in his last four EPL matches. Murray also loves to face his southern rivals in Southampton against which he has scored four games in his last five EPL matches against them. The 34-year old will see the addition up top of Florin Andone who will be playing his first match with the team since being acquired in the summer transfer window. Murray and company will need to play aggressively in this game to keep the Gulls competitive given their poor play on the defensive end of the pitch. Brighton has allowed 60 shots in EPL play while also allowing the 4th most shots in the league from inside the box. Furthermore, the Seagulls have allowed 14 goals in their last six EPL matches going back to last season which results in a 2.3 Goals-Allowed-Average. Brighton has zero clean sheets this season so it is highly likely that Southampton will score at least once in this match. Danny Ings has found his form with the team as he scored in their match at Crystal Palace — he has two goals in his last three matches in EPL play. He will be joined up top with Charlie Austin whose seven goals in his career against Brighton represents his best scoring production against all the teams from the English Premier League. The Saints have scored only four goals this year but they are due to get a visit from the Regression Gods as they have attempted a healthy 64 shots while creating plenty of scoring chances. In their last six matches in all events, Southampton has scored 11 goals for an improving 1.72 Goals-Per-Game average.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 1-1 draws in their two EPL matches last year. That should be the minimum expectation here — but I am expecting for at least Southampton to score a second time given their activity they are generating in front of the net against this porous Brighton defense. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Brighton and Hove Albion (2500) and Southampton (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-18 |
Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 42 |
Top |
13-20 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (287) and the Dallas Cowboys (288). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 20-15 loss a home to Jacksonville last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 16-8 loss at Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the defense for the Giants loss as they held the Jaguars to just 305 yards of offense. The hope with this football team that new defensive coordinator James Bettcher can find the magic for this defense that triggered them being 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 17.8 PPG while also ranking tied for 3rd in the league in run defense. Injuries took away cornerback Janoris Jenkins along with linebacker B.J. Goodson while the team feels they have upgraded at linebacker with the trade for Alec Ogletree from the Rams. But the problems for this team last week as they managed to generate only 324 yards of offense. The Giants ranked 31st in the NFL last year by scoring only 15.4 PPG — and their 15 points last week included a defensive 32-yard interception returned for a touchdown. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. The Giants have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow NFC East foes. It was a similar story for the Cowboys as their defense played quite well by holding the Panthers to just 16 points at home — but they managed only 232 yards of offense with a wide receiver group that lacks a clear number one (or number two) option. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. But this Cowboys defense should continue to play well given their balance after finishing last year 8th in the NFL in run defense and 11th in pass defense. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after both a straight-up loss and a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Cowboys have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on their home field.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played four of their last five games Under the Total. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams. 25* NFL NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (287) and the Dallas Cowboys (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-18 |
Browns v. Saints OVER 50 |
Top |
18-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (277) and the New Orleans Saints (278). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (0-0-1) ensured they will not suffer another season where they lose all their games as they managed a 21-21 tie with the Steelers last Sunday. New Orleans (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 48-40 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay despite being 10-point favorites in that contest.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Browns have a promising young defense but the Steelers generated 472 yards against them even in difficult wind conditions last Sunday. Cleveland has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread win. The Browns have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total in the month of September. Cleveland goes on the road now where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when the number is set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Browns have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home — and they have play 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. New Orleans’ surrendered 529 yards to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers’ offense last week. The Saints did keep up by gaining 475 yards in that contest — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, New Orleans has played 7 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Saints stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total. And in their last 5 games in the month of September, New Orleans has played all 5 games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Both these defenses look overrated last week compared to their preseason projections. The Saints face a must-win situation pretty much given the dire prospects of starting the year 0-2 at home in Superdome — while Cleveland remains desperate to earn their first win three seasons. This conflicting dynamic should produce a higher scoring game. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (277) and the New Orleans Saints (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-13-18 |
Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 45 |
Top |
23-34 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-0) opened their season in glowing fashion by crushing Buffalo by a 47-3 score last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (1-0) also enters this divisional game with a victory as they defeated the Colts in Indianapolis by a 34-23 score as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens flexed their muscles on defense in that game as they held the Bills to just 153 yards of offense. This is an outstanding Ravens’ defense that was 6th in the NFL last year by limiting their opponents to just 18.9 PPG along with three shutouts they also almost added to in that game. Baltimore limited the Bills to just 2.78 Yards-Per-Play in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to less than 3.0 YPP. The Ravens controlled the time of possession in that game while looking to win the battle at the line of scrimmage as they held the ball for 35:14 minutes of that game. Baltimore only managed 369 yards of offense for all that possession time — including 252 yards in the air. The Under is then 34-15-2 in the Ravens’ last 51 games after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. Furthermore, Baltimore has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents. Cincinnati has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Bengals have also seen the Under go 34-16-2 in their last 52 games after scoring at least 30 points. The defense did give up 380 yards to the Colts in that game — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Most of those yards were from QB Andrew Luck who returned to NFL action by 305 yards. But the Bengals allowed only 75 rushing yards — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at home — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 4 games played on Thursday Night Football, the Bengals have played all 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: It might be tempting to take the Over in this game with both offenses scoring a combined 81 points last week. These two teams also last played in Week 17 which was a scoring fest that the Bengals won by a 31-27 score. But that was the first Over between these two teams in their last five encounters. Look for both coaches to try to out-physical the other by controlling clock and win the battle at the line of scrimmage. 25* NFL AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-18 |
Braves v. Giants UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the San Francisco Giants (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Derek Holland. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (81-64) has won four straight games after they won Game Two of their series with the Giants last night by a 4-1 score for the second straight day.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Atlanta has also seen the Under go 10-4-1 in their last 15 games on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Sanchez who is 6-5 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.07 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in eleven starts. Sanchez is also better during day games where he sports a 2.16 ERA with a 0.81 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .157 in six starts. The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Sanchez facing a team with a losing record. He should thrive against this Giants team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .220 batting average along with a .255 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .622 during that span. San Francisco (68-78) has played 4 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 10 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Giants have lost nine straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss. Additionally, the Under is 7-1-1 in the Giants’ last 8 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. San Fran has also played 8 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Holland who is 7-8 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in thirty-one starts this year. The left-hander has been a bit better at home where he owns a 1.17 WHIP in fourteen starts. The Giants have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home with Holland on the hill. Together, these team trends produce our specific 72-12-3 combined angle for this situation. Holland has also been more effective on day games where he has a 2.54 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in eleven stats.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams for this afternoon getaway game. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the San Francisco Giants (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Derek Holland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-10-18 |
Rams v. Raiders OVER 47.5 |
|
33-13 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) officially begins the Sam Darnold era tonight as they hope to improve on their 5-11 season last year. Detroit (0-0) missed the playoffs last year after their second straight 9-7 campaign.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles averaged 33 PPG when playing on the road last year — and their offense added a big weapon in Brandin Cooks in the offseason. The Rams have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 18 of their last 24 road games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. Los Angeles has also played 4 straight games Over the Total in the month of September — and they have played 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new season Over the Total. Additionally, the Over is 7-3-1 in Los Angeles’ last 11 games on Monday Night Football. Oakland should improve on offense after scoring just 18.8 PPG. While that scoring mark ranked 23rd in the league, the Raiders were a bit better in total yardage by tying for 17th by averaging 324.1 total YPG. That disparity speaks to Red Zone problems where I place much of the blame on former offensive coordinator Todd Downing. Derek Carr led an offense that scoring 26.0 PPG while averaging 373.3 total YPG in 2016 which ranked 7th and 6th in the NFL respectively and I expect the team to approach those numbers once again this season under Gruden’s offensive mind. This Oakland team is going to have to outscore their opponents given their mediocre defense that let Khalil Mack go. Even with Mack, the Raiders ranked 20th in the NFL by allowing 23.3 PPG while also ranking 23rd in the league by giving up 350.1 total YPG. Oakland has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the month of September. The Raiders have also played 9 of their last 15 games at home — and Gruden’s teams have played 13 of their last 18 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in Oakland’s last 7 games played on Monday Night Football, the Raiders have played 5 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a high-scoring game between these two teams with the Raiders already acknowledging that they will have to win a shootout to pull the upset in this game. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-18 |
Bears v. Packers OVER 46 |
Top |
23-24 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (477) and the Green Bay Packers (478). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) begins play under their new head coach Matt Nagy after John Fox was let go after their 5-11 campaign last season. Green Bay (0-0) is happy to get Aaron Rodgers back after he missed seven games last year with a broken collarbone in what ended up being a 7-9 season.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers’ offense stalled without Rodgers last year as they averaged only 20.0 PPG last year while generating a mere 305.7 total YPG with those marks ranking 21st and 26th in the league. With Rodgers back under center, both of those marks should significantly amp up — especially at home. Green Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games at Lambeau Field with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Rodgers no longer has Jordy Nelson as a weapon but the veteran has lost a step — he was essentially replaced by a big target in tight end Jimmy Graham who caught 10 TD passes last year. It has been a number of years since Rodgers has had a prolific pass-receiving tight end in his arsenal. But perhaps the biggest upgrade this team has made on offense was the return of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin. The former Miami Dolphins head coach was the offensive coordinator for the Packers from 2007-2011 when Rodgers was enjoying some of his best statistical seasons. Remember that Rodgers has enjoyed an incredible 40-to-8 touchdown to interception ratio over his last sixteen starts — and he loves facing Vic Fangio-coached defenses against which he has an 11-1 TD-to-Interception ratio in his last five games against the Bears with Fangio as their defensive coordinator. Rodgers will battle a Bears’ defense that was a Top-Ten unit last year that has just added linebacker Kahlil Mack into the mix. With Mack just joining the team, it is unclear how many snaps he will play in this game. The Chicago defense is good — but their stats were padded by an offense that was designed to burn time off the clock to keep them off the field. The Bears averaged 29.2 seconds per play which is the second longest in the league. Chicago had no Pro Bowlers on their defense last year. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total against familiar conference opponents. Additionally, the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the month of September — and this includes them playing 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new season Over the Total. The Bears’ offense averaged only 16.5 PPG last year but I am expecting significant improvement from this unit this season. Nagy was brought in to play the role of Sean McVay who helped quarterback Jared Goff blossom in his second year. Mitchell Trubisky showed glimpses of his enormous potential last year but was often held back by the conservative play-calling of the offense. Trubisky also lacked weapons at wide receiver — and this was addressed in the offseason with Chicago signing Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and tight end Trey Burton in the offseason. Those targets will help open things up for running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. Nagy and his offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich revealed very little of their plans for their new offseason with plenty of Run-Pass-Options expected — so Green Bay’s defense may be caught by a few surprises tonight. Trubisky saw only 39 snaps in the preseason. And don’t be surprised if the Bears significantly amp up their pace of play on offense given Helfrich’s background as a Chip Kelly protege at Oregon.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Over the Total. Expect a higher-scoring game between two teams that will be experiencing big improvements with their respective offenses. Expect this to be a sloppy game which will likely result in triggering more scoring opportunities. 25* NFL NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (477) and the Green Bay Packers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-18 |
Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 9 |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-120 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (977) and the Boston Red Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Rick Porcello. THE SITUATION: Houston (89-53) has won seven straight games after winning the second game of this series last night by a 5-3 score against the Red Sox.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while Houston has not allowed more than three runs in eight straight games, they have then played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three runs in at least four straight games. Furthermore, the Astros have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They give the ball to Keuchel who is 11-10 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he sees his ERA drop to a 3.27 mark. Houston has played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with Keuchel pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to -125 range. He faces a Red Sox team that is hitting only .249 over their last seven games with an OPS of .709 in those games with both stats far below their .268 batting average and .774 OPS for the season. Boston (97-46) has played 22 of their last 31 home games when playing with revenge from a loss in their last game with their opponents. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have also played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Porcello who is 16-7 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander should be seeing better results given his SIERA and xFIP that both project an ERA of 3.71 and 3.84 moving forward. Porcello has been more effective at home in Fenway Park where he has a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in twelve starts as compared to his 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 on the road. Boston has played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with Porcello facing a team with a winning record. He faces an Astros team that has seen the Under go 11-3-2 in their last 16 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Expect playoff intensity for this nationally-televised game — and that should translate into a low-scoring game with two good starting pitchers on the mound. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (977) and the Boston Red Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Rick Porcello. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-08-18 |
Rice v. Hawaii OVER 67.5 |
Top |
29-43 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Rice Owls (397) and the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (398). THE SITUATION: Rice (1-1) is already playing their third game of the season after they lost to Houston last week at home by a 45-27 score as a big 25.5-point underdog. Hawai’i (2-0) is also playing their third game of the year after they upset Navy at home last week by a 59-41 score as a 13.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Owls have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also played a decisive 45 of their last 67 games Over the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Rice has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Struggles on the defensive side of the football were expected for this team that lost their top-five tacklers from last year’s unit that was 112th in the nation by allowing 35.8 PPG. The Owls are allowing 36.5 PPG this season along with 480.5 total YPG. But first-year head coach Mike Bloomgren may have his answer at quarterback in senior graduate transfer Shawn Stankavage from Vanderbilt who was showed promise last week by completing 20 of 31 passes for 204 yards with three touchdown passes while leading the Rice offense to 443 yards of offense which was more 110 more YPG than what they averaged last season. The Owls now go on the road where they have played 28 of their last 38 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Rice has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing on field turf — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games when facing a team outside Conference USA. Hawai’i seems right at home back orchestrating their old Run-and-Shoot offense that their head coach Nick Rolovich used to operate for then head coach (and now Hamilton Tiger-Cats head coach) June Jones. The Rainbow Warriors generated 526 yards last week against the Midshipmen defense — and it is like the old days for this team so far this season as they are scoring 51.0 PPG while generating 569.0 total YPG for their unique scheme. Hawai’i has then played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. Sophomore QB Cole McDonald is loving executing this offense which gives freedom to both the quarterback and the four wide receivers to improvise their routes based off coverage. McDonald completed 30 of 41 passes last week for 428 yards while throwing six touchdown passes with zero interceptions. But the defense remains a work in progress after losing six of their top nine tacklers from a group that allowed 33.9 PPG while ranking 114th in the FBS by allowing 458.8 total YPG. In their first two games this year, Hawai’i is allowing 37.5 PPG while giving up 532.0 total YPG. Moving forward, the Rainbow Warriors have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of September. And in their last 11 games against non-conference opponents, Hawai’i has played 10 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: With this being the third game for both teams, the offenses should be up-to-speed regarding understanding and operating their schemes. Neither of these teams can stop anybody — so this should be a high-scoring game with Hawai’i likely leading the way. 25* CFB Bailout Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Rice Owls (397) and the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (398). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-07-18 |
Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 9.5 |
|
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) and the Colorado Rockies (962) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Jon Gray. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (76-64) begins their series having lost two of their last three games after their 7-3 loss to the Mets on Wednesday. Colorado (77-62) has won five straight games with their 5-3 win over the Giants on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and the Under is also 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after a loss. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They send out Kershaw who is 6-5 with a 2.40 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has a 1.98 ERA with 0.86 WHIP in his last ten starts — and he owns a 2.00 ERA over his last five starts. Kershaw has ben more effective on the road where he owns a 1.98 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP in nine starts. The Under is 26-9-2 in the Dodgers’ last 37 road games with Kershaw facing a team with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total with Kershaw squaring off against the Rockies. Colorado is hitting just .226 over their last seven games with a .296 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .666 during that span. The Rockies also played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Colorado has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total are scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after an off day. Additionally, the Under is 22-7-1 in the Rockies’ last 30 games at home with the Under also being 10-3-1 in their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Gray who is 11-7 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The sabermetrics indicate Gray should be seeing much better numbers than that with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.51 and 3.30 respectively. Over his last nine starts, Gray has fulfilled the promise of these analytics as he owns a 3.08 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP in those games. The right-hander has been even better at home at Coors Field where he owns a 2.43 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP over his last five starts. Colorado has played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Gray on the hill — and they have also played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Gray facing the Dodgers. He should continue to find success against this Dodgers team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .218 batting average along with a .274 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .670 during those games.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a pitcher’s duel between Kershaw and Gray even at Coors Field (with the Total raised to the 9-9.5 range) between these two teams in the heat of the NL West title. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) and the Colorado Rockies (962) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Jon Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-06-18 |
Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 |
|
7-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (76-63) has lost three straight games after their 9-8 loss to Boston on Tuesday. Arizona (75-64) snapped their four-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 6-0 victory over San Diego.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss. The Under is also 7-0-1 in their last 8 games when playing on the road. They give the ball to Sanchez who is 6-5 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in twenty starts. The veteran right-hander has been even better when on the road where he has a 2.85 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .202 in ten starts. The Under is 4-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 6 road games with Sanchez on the hill. He faces a cold Diamondbacks’ lineup that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .197 batting average along with an On-Base Percentage of .260 and an opponent’s batting average of .588. Arizona has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams using starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The Diamondbacks had not scored more than five runs since August 18th before Tuesday’s six-run output. Before that game with the Padres, Arizona had scored only 14 combined runs in their previous eight games. The Diamondbacks have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Arizona has played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. The Diamondbacks have also played 4 straight games Under the Total at home. They counter with Greinke who is 13-9 with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 2.16 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .199 in fourteen starts. Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Greinke pitching at home. He faces a Braves team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .230 batting average along with a .295 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .690 over that span. Atlanta has played 7 straight road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low scoring game between these two teams with offenses that are struggling. 10* MLB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-06-18 |
Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 45 |
|
12-18 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (451) and the Philadelphia Eagles (452). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-0) will have their Super Bowl Ring Ceremony at home at Liberty Financial Field as they open the NFL season at home after defeating New England in last year’s Super Bowl. Atlanta (0-0) will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing in this building last January 13th in a 15-10 loss to the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles held the Falcons to just 281 yards of offense in that January victory. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz may have figured out the Atlanta offense as his group held them to just 303 yards of offense in their 24-15 win in their previous meeting back on November 13th in the 2016-17 season where the Falcons broke numerous records on offense while averaging 33.8 PPG. This Eagles team remains loaded on defense this season especially on their defensive line where Schwartz may have his dream situation in place with ten players who he can feel very comfortable rotating in-and-out in his wide-nine scheme. Schwartz banks on generating pressure on the quarterback with just his four-man front without relying on blitzes which gives him an extra player or two who can drop back into pass coverage. The Eagles may have to count on winning another low-scoring game with Carson Wentz still out with that ACL injury from last year — and Super Bowl MVP will not have the services of their top wide receiver in Alshon Jeffrey who is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 9 of their last 13 opening weeks to a new season. The Eagles have also played 12 of their last 18 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Atlanta certainly has spent all of the offseason preparing for the Eagles’ Run-Pass-Option offense that they unveiled in that playoff game with Foles under center last January. The defense steadily improved last year before flexing their muscles in the playoffs by completing the Rams offensive attack in Los Angeles in their 26-13 win in the Wild Card round before liming the Eagles to just 15 points and only 334 yards of offense the next week. The Falcons have played 7 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. The Atlanta offense also tends to slow down considerably when taking out of the pristine conditions in both the Georgia Dome and now Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have seen the Under go a decisive 33-16-2 in their last 51 games when playing on grass that slows down their speedy offensive players.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams rested their starters on offense during the preseason which will likely make both offenses ever slower to get started this season. Expect another showdown between these two teams to be dominated by the defenses with a lower scoring game being the result. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (451) and the Philadelphia Eagles (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-03-18 |
Virginia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 55.5 |
|
24-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Tech Hokies (219) and the Florida State Seminoles (220). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (0-0) enters this season coming off a 9-4 campaign that concluded with a 30-21 loss to Oklahoma State in the Camping World Bowl. Florida State (0-0) looks to rebound from a disappointing 7-6 season that ended on a positive note when they crushed Southern Miss by a 42-13 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hokies always have a strong defense under defensive coordinator Bud Carson who has entered his 32nd year in coaching. His defense was 4th in the nation last year by holding their opponents to just 14.8 PPG while also ranking 13th in the FBS by allowing only 319.3 total YPG. This unit has helped Virginia Tech see 35 of their last 52 games in conference play finish Under the Total. The offense returns seven starters from a group that ranked only 69th in the nation by scoring 28.2 PPG. Offensive line issues often held that group back — and facing the stout Seminoles defensive line will be another big challenge. The Hokies also have a big hole at running back after Travon McMillan left early for the NFL. Virginia Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games in the month of September. Furthermore, Fuente-coached teams have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total as a road underdog — and his teams have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Florida State usually plays lower-scoring games in situations like this as they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 10 points. The Seminoles were 18th in the nation last year by holding their opponents to only 331.1 total YPG — and they were tied for 29th in the FBS by allowing just 21.2 PPG. New head coach Willie Taggart has tapped sophomore Deondre Francois to be his starting quarterback after he suffered a season-ending knee injury last September. But Francois had been recruited to play in a Run-Pass Option offense out of high school and he is now being asked to operate Taggart’s up-tempo spread offense — so growing pains are likely. He inherits eight starters from an offense that ranked only 100th in the nation by averaging 351.9 total YPG. Florida State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the first-half of the season. The Under is also 20-7-1 in the Seminoles’ last 28 games in ACC play.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a lower-scoring game in this opening game between two teams that are both led by their defenses. 10* CFB Monday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Tech Hokies (219) and the Florida State Seminoles (220). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-02-18 |
Miami-FL v. LSU UNDER 49 |
Top |
17-33 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (217) and the LSU Tigers (218). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-0) returns to the field after the finished last year with a 10-3 record after a 34-24 loss to Wisconsin. LSU (0-0) completed a 9-4 campaign last season with a 21-17 loss to Notre Dame. This game is played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in the home of the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami returns seven starters from a very good defense that was 28th in the FBS by allowing 21.0 PPG. The Hurricanes lost five key contributors on the defensive line with two of those players leaving early for the NFL — but head coach Mark Richt had nice depth at this position last year and has been recruiting very well. Depth is an issue for the defensive line this season but that that is less of a concern for this opening game. The offense returns seven starters from a group that sputtered down the stretch of the season as they scored 41 combined points in losing their last three games. Injuries certainly played a role with that collapse in production with running back Mark Walton being the biggest loss. But that is the new reality for this team with him leaving early for the NFL — so Richt is counting heavily on a five-star freshman tailback in Lorenzo Lingard. Senior quarterback Malik Rosier completed just 40 of 89 passes for an unforgiving 44.9% completion rate — and he completed just 54% of his passes in a very inconsistent season. The Hurricanes have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when favored — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Richt is likely to play this game cautiously while relying heavily on his defense. His teams have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral field laying less than 7 points. His teams have also played a defensive 34 of their last 55 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and this included playing three of his last four games Under the Total in that situation. LSU returns five starters and 57% of the tackles from last year’s defense that was 14th in the nation by allowing only 18.9 PPG while also ranking 12th in the FBS by limiting their opponents to just 316.0 total YPG. This should remain a stout group with defensive coordinator still in the fold after he was given a huge four-year $10 million dollar deal which makes him one of the highest paid assistant coaches in the nation. The questions for this program will remain on offense where they ranked just 76th in the nation last year by scoring 27.2 PPG. The team is excited about the prospects of their new starting quarterback in Joe Burrow who is a graduate transfer from Ohio State. The 6’3 senior narrowly lost the Buckeyes’ QB job in the spring before deciding to transfer where he supposedly narrowly beat out sophomore Myles Brennan for this starting job. While Burrow was a highly touted coming out of college, he never got a whiff of possibly starting in Columbus until this spring — and he joined the Tigers with just the August practices to learn the offense. LSU lost Derrius Guice who moved on to the NFL which leaves the biggest hole at this position in my recent memory (going back ten years in my notes). Their leading returning rusher is Nick Brossette who ran the ball 19 times for 96 yards last year. Oy. The idea seems to be for this team that they will become more of a pass-first offense under new offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger. Oy — and Miami returns three starters from one of the best secondaries in the nation last year. The Tigers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in September. LSU has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games outside SEC play. Lastly, Ed Orgeron-coached teams have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Expect this to be a lowing scoring game in this high profile showdown between to two programs with high aspirations who have more questions on the offensive side of the football than their typically strong defenses. 25* CFB ABC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (217) and the LSU Tigers (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-02-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers Clay Buchholz and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (74-62) has won seven of their last eight games with their 3-2 win over the Diamondbacks last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. And while Los Angeles has not allowed more than four runs in their last nine games, they have then played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing at least four straight games Under the Total. Furthermore, the Dodgers have played 8 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Buehler who is 6-4 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 2.43 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP along with a .199 opponent’s batting average in nine starts (ten games). Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with Buehler pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a slumping Diamondbacks team that is scoring just 2.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .192 batting average along with a .226 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .536 over that span. Arizona (74-62) has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and the Under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a loss. The Diamondbacks have also played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Arizona has also played their 7 games Under the Total against fellow NL West foes. They counter with Buchholz who is 7-2 with a 2.07 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander has been even more effective on the road where he sports a 1.73 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in nine starts. The Diamondbacks have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Buchholz pitching on the road. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Expect another low-scoring game between two starting pitchers that are in the groove right now. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers Clay Buchholz and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-01-18 |
Huddersfield Town v. Everton UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2512) and Everton (2513). THE SITUATION: Huddersfield (0-1-2) earned their first point of the season last Saturday with their 0-0 draw at home against Cardiff. Everton (1-2-0) also earned a point last week with their 2-2 draw at Bournemouth.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Everton has scored two goals in each of their first three matches this season which may tempt some bettors to take the Over in this match with them being -1.0 goal favorites. But the metrics indicate that the Toffees have been very fortunate in front of the net with 20% of their shots reaching the back of the net — that is the highest mark in the English Premier League and likely due for regression. Everton will be without their top offensive player in this match in midfielder Richarlison who has scored three of the teams six goals this year. Richarlison earned a red card in that match last week against Cardiff who garnered him a three-game suspension. The Toffees still have Theo Walcott as a scoring option in the middle of the field — but while he has scored twice so far this season he has managed only four shots on net. I think he will struggle without Richarlison on the pitch — Everton blew their 2-0 lead against the Cherries when playing with ten players after his red card. The Toffees are also dealing with injuries on defense with three central defenders likely out for this match. That situation will likely compel manager Marco Silva to have his team play cautiously with the hopes of wearing down an inferior opponent. Everton scored only ten goals at home in Goodison Park in their last ten matches — but they gave up only nine goals in those matches for a low 1.9 combined goals average. Huddersfield is not a threat to score goals in this match. After finishing tied for the bottom in the EPL last year with just 28 goals, the Terriers have scored only once in their three EPL matches this year. They were also held scoreless in their Carabou Cup match on Tuesday this week which resulted in a 2-0 loss at Stoke City. In their scoreless draw with Cardiff last week, Huddersfield managed only five shots with just one on target. Their sixteen shots overall this year is last in the EPL. Their offensive cause is not helped with midfielder Jonathan Hogg suspended after earning a red card last week. Last year, the Terriers failed to score in twenty-one of their thirty-eight matches — and they only managed to score in six of their matches on the road. In their last eight matches on the road in the EPL last season, they scored only four goals — but they allowed only ten goals for a low 1.75 combined Goals-Per-Game average. Manager David Wagner is crafty and will likely have his team play very deep with the hopes of stealing a point in a scoreless draw. The team lacks a quality striker which often compels Wagner to use only forward on the pitch in exchange for more defenders. Huddersfield did have the eighth most clean sheets last year so a 0-0 draw is not out of the realm of the possibilities in his mind.
FINAL TAKE: Everton won both matches between these two clubs last year by 2-0 scores. With the Terriers attack looking to be even less potent this season and the Toffees significantly undermanned, expect another low-scoring contest. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2512) and Everton (2513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-31-18 |
Mariners v. A's UNDER 8 |
|
5-7 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (927) and the Oakland A’s (928) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Mike Fiers. THE SITUATION: Seattle (75-59) snapped their three-game losing streak last night with their 7-1 victory over the A’s.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have seen the Under go 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. Seattle has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Leake who is 8-8 with a 4.03 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.78 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP in thirteen starts. The Mariners have played 4 straight road games Under the Total with Leake facing a team with a winning record. Oakland (80-55) has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the A’s have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Fiers who is 10-6 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The right-hander has a nice 2.49 ERA at home in fifteen starts. He has been on fire over his last five starts where he owns a 1.38 ERA with a 0.81 WHIP spanning 26 innings of work. He has allowed only one earned run in his last two starts — and his teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when he has not allowed more than two earned runs in two straight starts. Fiers’ teams have also played 24 of their last 36 home games Under the Total with him making a start at night. Lastly, in the last 9 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 8 times.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low scoring game between these two teams in the thick of the AL West playoff hunt. 10* MLB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (927) and the Oakland A’s (928) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Mike Fiers. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-31-18 |
Army v. Duke UNDER 46.5 |
|
14-34 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (159) and the Duke Blue Devils (160). THE SITUATION: Army (0-0) enters the new season coming off a triumphant 10-3 campaign that culminated with a 42-35 victory over San Diego State in the Armed Forces Bowl. Wake Forest (0-0) comes off a 7-6 season that ended with a 36-14 win over Northern Illinois in the Quick Lane Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Black Knights return eight starters along with five of their last top seven tacklers from a strong group that finished tied for 32nd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 22.0 PPG while also ranking 32nd in the FBS by limiting their opponents to only 349.7 total YPG. This defense should be quite good right out of the gates this season — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Army is rebuilding of offense as they only returned three starters from last year’s group including their quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw. The Black Knights have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. Duke has the benefit of having all of fall camp to prepare for Army’s spread triple option. The Blue Devils always invest time to prepare for this unique offense with Georgia Tech on the schedule year-after-year. These two teams played last year and while Duke was upset by a 21-16 score as a 4-point favorite, they did hold Army to 136 yards below their rushing YPG mark while limiting them to just 3.96 Yards-Per-Carry. The Blue Devils have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the first-half of the season. Duke has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The defenses should be ahead of the offenses in this August contest. Duke should also be able to slow down the rebuilding Army offense that they did a fine job against last year in a game that finished 15 points Under the Total. 10* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (159) and the Duke Blue Devils (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-18 |
Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Mike Montgomery and Mike Foltynewicz. THE SITUATION: Chicago (78-54) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped last night with their 10-3 loss to the Mets yesterday. Atlanta (74-58) looks to rebound from an 8-5 loss to Tampa Bay yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Montgomery who is coming off the disabled list to return to their now six-man rotation. The left-hander has a 4-4 record with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 99 1/3 innings of work. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.96 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 54 2/3 innings of work both starting and out of the pen. Montgomery did not allow an earned run in his last start where he pitched 6 innings at Kansas City — and the Cubs have played 7 of their last 8 games when Montgomery registered a Quality Start in his last start on the mound. He faces a Braves team that has seen the Under go 16-4-1 in their last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Under is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta (74-58) has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Braves have also played 16 of their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Foltynewicz who is 10-8 with a 2.67 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.63 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in twelve home starts. The Under is 3-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 home games with Foltynewicz on the hill. He faces a Cubs team that has played 8 straight road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Lastly, these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total when playing in Atlanta.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams that are in the heat of the National League playoff race. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Mike Montgomery and Mike Foltynewicz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-18 |
Jaguars v. Bucs UNDER 35.5 |
|
25-10 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (115) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (116). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (2-1) looks to build off their 17-6 win over Atlanta last Saturday as a 4-point favorite. Tampa Bay (2-1) looks to rebound from their 33-30 upset loss to Detroit last Friday as a 2.5-point favorite.
THE SITUATION: The Jaguars should continue to play strong on the defensive side of the football as they have only allowed 13.3 PPG along with 254.7 total YPG this preseason. Jacksonville has then played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Jaguars have played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while they outgained the Falcons by 145 yards last week, they have then played 4 straight preseason games Under the Total after outgaining their last preseason opponent by at least 100 yards. Blake Bortles and the starters on offense are not likely to take the field in this game which is not a good sign for an offense that is scoring only 17.0 PPG this preseason. The Buccaneers have played 13 of their last 17 preseason games at home Under the Total after a point spread loss. Tampa Bay has played all three of their preseason games Over the Total this month — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after playing their last two preseason games Over the Total. They did enjoy a 20-6 halftime lead last week against the Lions — but they have then played 9 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after owning at least a two-touchdown lead at halftime of their last preseason game. Furthermore, the Buccaneers have played a decisive 37 of their last 53 games Under the Total in the preseason as a favorite — including played four of their last five preseason games Under the Total as the favorite under head coach Dirk Koetter.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams in their final preseason game. 10* NFLx Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (115) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-18 |
Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 12:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (951) and the Cincinnati Reds (952) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Cody Reed. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (73-60) outlasted the Reds in the second game of this series by a 13-12 score in 10 innings last night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Brewers have now played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total in the month of August — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NL Central opponents. Additionally, the Over is 6-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 8 road games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Miley who is 2-2 with a 2.32 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in ten starts. The sabermetrics are screaming out for regression for this left-hander as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.97 and 4.56 moving forward this season. The Brewers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Miley making the start. He faces a Reds team that has played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Cincinnati (57-75) has also seen the Over go 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 20-7-2 in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 52 day games, the Reds have played 31 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Reed who is 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings of work since being called up from Triple-A earlier this month. Reed has logged-in 80 innings at the major league level in his career where he has not been as effective at home. The left-hander has a 7.05 ERA with a 1.78 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .358 in 37 innings at home as compared to his 5.44 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP on the road. Furthermore, Reed has been rocked for a 9.39 ERA with a 2.05 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings during day games as compared to his 4.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP at night. Cincinnati has played 8 straight games Over the Total with Reed pitching as an underdog. He faces a hot-hitting Brewers team that was scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games before yesterday along with a .290 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .827. Lastly, Milwaukee has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: It should be another high-scoring affair between these two teams in this afternoon getaway game at the Great American Ballpark. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (951) and the Cincinnati Reds (952) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Cody Reed. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-28-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Clay Buchholz and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (66-67) has won three straight games with their 2-0 shutout win over the Diamondbacks in the opening game of this series last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 18-6-3 the Giants’ last 27 games after a victory. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Bumgarner who is 5-5 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has been outstanding once again at home this year where he owns a 1.71 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in seven starts. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Giants’ last 8 home games with Bumgarner on the hill — and they have played 7 straight Unders at home with Bumgarner facing the Diamondbacks. He should continue this success tonight when facing this Arizona team (72-58) that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 4 games after a loss. And while Arizona has lost three of their last four games, they have played 36 of their last 53 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. The Diamondbacks have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Buchholz who is 7-2 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander has been even more effective on the road where he sports a 1.97 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in eight starts. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Buchholz on the hill. He has benefited from a fairly easy stretch of opponents — and he will be facing a cold Giants team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .195 batting average along with a .259 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .591 over that span. Lastly, the Under is 22-10-1 in the last 33 meetings between these two teams in San Francisco.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a pitchers’ duel between these two teams facing slumping lineups. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Clay Buchholz and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-27-18 |
White Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (907) and the New York Yankees (908) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and Masahiro Tanaka. THE SITUATION: Chicago (51-79) has won three straight games with their 7-2 win at Detroit yesterday. New York (83-47) has won eight of their last nine games after they defeated the Orioles in Baltimore yesterday by a 5-3 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 11-5-2 in the Yankees’ last 18 games after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 opening games to a new series Over the Total. Additionally, the Over is 24-11-2 in New York’s last 37 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 9-4 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 4.27 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in eight starts. The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Tanaka on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting White Sox team that is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .272 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .799 over that span. Chicago has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The White Sox have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. The Over is also 7-1-1 in their last 9 games on the road for Chicago. They counter with Rodon who is 5-3 with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in thirteen starts. The left-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 1.71 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP but those numbers rise to a 3.65 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP in his seven starts on the road. The White Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Rodon pitching with four days of rest. He faces a Yankees’ lineup that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .270 batting average along with a .340 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .751 over that span. Lastly, the Over is 8-2-2 in the Bronx Bombers’ last 12 games facing left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With the White Sox bats finally woken up, expect a high-scoring game between these two teams. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (907) and the New York Yankees (908) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and Masahiro Tanaka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-27-18 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
105 |
20 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham Hotspur (2527) and Manchester United (2528). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (2-0-0) have won their opening two games of the new season with their 3-1 win over Fulham last Saturday. Manchester United (1-0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 3-2 upset loss last Sunday at Brighton and Hove Albion.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The pressure is mounting on Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho whose preferred defensive tactics are not matching with the talent he has on this Red Devils roster. Man United managed only nine shots despite controlling the possession for 66.6% of this match — and yet they allowed two goals to a Brighton team that was 17th in the entire EPL in goals scored last year. David de Gea was perhaps the best goalkeeper in the world last year but he has been off his game since the World Cup where he was part of Spain’s disappointment. The Red Devils have allowed four goals this season — so while it is tempting to think that Mourinho will want to tighten things up even more after that embarrassing loss, his team’s defensive form suggests that is not a winning strategy. Mourinho saw implosions in his third year as the manager for both Chelsea and Real Madrid so his seat is red hot right now. The pressure is on Man United offensive players to register goals in this important contest with a good Spurs side. The Red Devils are 5th in goals scored last year with 68 — and 41 of those goals were scored at home at Old Trafford for a 2.16 Goals-Per-Game average. In their last five home matches against one of the Top Six teams in the EPL, Man United has scored ten goals. But the problem for Mourinho is that his team has also surrendered seven goals in those last five home contests hosting a Top Six side. The Red Devils produced only one clean sheet at home all of last season against a Top Six team — so it is likely that the Spurs will score in this contest. Tottenham has scored five times in their first two matches with Harry Kane breaking his EPL August cold-streak by finally scoring in the opening month of the season last week in the 77th minute against Fulham. Kane enjoyed a great run with England in the World Cup and he looks to remain in top form now. The Spurs have scored 1.8 Goals in their last ten EPL games on the road while allowing 1.1 Goals-Per-Game against their home hosts. More importantly, they have scored six goals in their last three road matches against a Top Six team in EPL action while allowing those Top Six opponents to score seven times. Tottenham has also allowed nine goals in their last four road contests in the EPL against a Top Six opponent.
FINAL TAKE: The urgency to win this match will likely produce a 2-1 result (at least). The Spurs should score at least once on the road — and Manchester United tends to break out of Mourinho’s organizational straight-jacket when the goings get rough. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham Hotspur (2527) and Manchester United (2528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-26-18 |
Yankees v. Orioles OVER 8.5 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (963) and the Baltimore Orioles (964) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Dylan Bundy. THE SITUATION: New York (82-47) has won four straight games — as well as seven of their last eight contests — with their 5-1 win over the Orioles yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 11-4-2 in the Yankees’ last 17 games after a win. New York won the second game of this series by a 10-3 score — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning their last two games by at least four runs. They give the ball to Severino who is 16-6 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The right-hander has struggled as of late as he has lost command of his fastball which has then has made his deceptive cutter less effective. Over his last six starts, Severino has a 7.26 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP. Even at top form, the right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.81 mark with a 1.23 WHIP in thirteen starts. The Yankees have played 8 straight road games Over the Total with Severino on the hill — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 games in the second-half of the season with Severino making the start. He faces an Orioles team that has seen the Over go 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. And while Baltimore (37-93) has not hit a home run in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to hit a home run for at least two straight games. They counter with Bundy who is 7-12 with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander has been even worse at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.67 mark with a 1.41 WHIP in thirteen starts. The Orioles have seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games with Bundy on the hill. He faces a Yankees team that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .281 batting average along with a .354 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .801 over that span. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 games between these two teams when playing in Baltimore.
FINAL TAKE: Something is definitely off with Severino right now — and those negative vibes have snowballed to impact his confidence. But he is backed by a hot-hitting lineup right now that should feast off of Bundy. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (963) and the Baltimore Orioles (964) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Dylan Bundy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-26-18 |
Cardinals v. Cowboys UNDER 40.5 |
Top |
27-3 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (281) and the Dallas Cowboys (282). THE SITUATION: Arizona (2-0) remained undefeated so far this preseason with their 20-15 upset win in New Orleans last Saturday as a 6-point underdog. Dallas (0-2) looks to rebound from their 21-13 upset loss at home to Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys are missing key pieces on their offensive line with right guard Zack Martin out with an injury and now their All-Pro center Travis Frederick has been diagnosed with the Guillain-Barre autoimmune syndrome that threatens his future playing career. Given this state of affairs, head coach Jason Garrett is not taking any chances with Ezekiel Elliott as the running back will not play in this game — and I do not expect Dak Prescott to play much either to ensure he is not exposed to an injury. This leaves the Dallas offense relying on a depleted offensive line and their less than inspiring backup quarterbacks in rookie Mike White and second-year pro Cooper Rush. The Cowboys are encouraged with the play of their youngsters on defense after they held the Bengals to just 263 yards of offense last week. Dallas has played 12 of their last 16 home preseason games Under the Total after a preseason loss — and they have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an upset preseason loss at home. The Cowboys have also played 3 of their last 4 preseason games Under the Total after losing their last two preseason games. Arizona enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin last week in their win upset win over the Saints — and they have played 9 of their last 14 preseason games Under the Total after enjoying at least a +3 net turnover margin in their last preseason game. The Cardinals also won the turnover battle in their opening preseason game by forcing another four turnovers which resulted in a +3 net turnover mark for that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total after winning the turnover battle in their previous two preseason games. Quarterback Sam Bradford looked good by completing all 6 of his passes for 61 yards — but while he will start in this third preseason game, head coach Steve Wilks has intimated that he will not play his likely starting quarterback very long in this contest. Rookie QB Josh Rosen may get an extended look in this contest but despite some positive reviews for looking steady under center, he is only completing 55.2% of his passes while averaging a mere 5.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Cardinals do not have much a rushing attack after David Johnson who they are hoping can return from his season-ending injury last year. They only rushed for 65 yards last week after managing just 56 rushing yards in their opening preseason game — and the Saints outrushed them by 118 net yards. Arizona has played 8 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after being outrushed in their last preseason game by at least 75 yards — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 preseason games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 rushing yards in their last two preseason games. Lastly, in their last 5 preseason games on the road, the Cardinals have played 4 of these preseason games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: With both of these coaches not treating this third preseason game as the proverbial “dress rehearsal” opportunity for the starters, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFLx Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (281) and the Dallas Cowboys (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-18 |
Wyoming v. New Mexico State UNDER 45 |
Top |
29-7 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (291) and the New Mexico State Aggies (292). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (0-0) closed out last season by winning their second straight bowl game when they defeated Central Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by a 37-14 score. New Mexico State (0-0) also ended their season on a high-note when they upset Utah State in the Arizona Bowl by a 26-20 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Wyoming will be learning to live life without Josh Allen declared early for the NFL draft who was then drafted in the 1st round by Buffalo. But even with that blue-chipper under center, the Cowboys only scored 23.5 PPG while averaging a mere 286.0 total YPG which ranked 104th and 125th in the FBS. Struggles with their offensive line made things difficult for Allen under center — and they only averaged 3.17 Yards-Per-Carry which was 6th worst in the nation. It is difficult to imagine this offensive unit to be much better out of the blocks without Allen. Head coach Craig Bohl has named redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal as the starting quarterback over an experienced senior in Nick Smith — but this will be his first collegiate start and he will be doing it on the road in a nationally televised night game. As it is, Wyoming has paled 4 of their last 5 games away from home Under the Total. The Cowboys have also played 37 of their last 56 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. But the foundation of this team last year was a defense that ranked 9th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 17.5 PPG. Eight starters return from that unit including All-Mountain West Conference candidates at all three levels — so Bohl will likely lean on this group heavily to begin the year. Wyoming has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on field turf. New Mexico State (0-0) makes their debut as an independent after their contract with the Sun Belt last season. They also have a new starting quarterback with head coach Doug Martin tapping junior college transfer Matt Romero over senior Nick Jeanty. But the Aggies will also have the luxury of leaning on an experienced defense as they return ten of their top eleven tacklers from last year’s team. New Mexico State was a bend-but-do-not-break group last year on defense as they were 7th in the nation in 3rd Down defense while ranking 41st in the FBS in Red Zone defense. This should be an even better group under the guidance of an outstanding defensive coach in defensive coordinator Frank Spaziano who had some elite defensive units when he was the head coach at Boston College. The Aggies have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on field-turf — and the Under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 games at home.
FINAL TAKE: With both these teams kicking off their seasons early with experienced defenses and rookie quarterbacks, expect this to be a low-scoring game. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (291) and the New Mexico State Aggies (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-18 |
Braves v. Marlins UNDER 8 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Miami Marlins (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Wei-Yin Chen. THE SITUATION: Miami (52-78) rebounded from a 5-0 loss on Thursday to shutout the Braves on Friday with their 1-0 victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have now seen the Under go 8-2-2 in their last 12 games at home. Miami is a heavy underdog in this game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 home games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +150 to +200 price range. They give the ball to Chen who is 4-9 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty starts. But while the right-hander has been a disaster on the road where he has been saddled with a 9.34 ERA with a 1.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .335 in ten starts, he has been quite good at home where he sports a 2.05 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in ten starts at home. The Under is 8-2-1 in the Marlins’ last 11 home games with Chen on the hill. He faces a cold-hitting Braves team that went into Friday night scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .243 batting average over their last seven games along with a .315 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .664 over that span. Atlanta (77-56) has played 7 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Under is also 5-2-1 in the Braves’ last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has now played 15 of their last 23 games this month Under the Total. The Under is also now 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on the road. They counter with Sanchez who is 6-4 with a 3.13 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of 1.09 in seventeen starts. The veteran right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has an ERA of 3.06 with a 1.08 WHOP buoyed by an opponent’s batting average of .203. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Braves’ last 5 road games with Sanchez on the hill — and Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Sanchez pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -125 to -175 range. He faces a Marlins’ team that has seen the Under go 5-2-2 in their last 9 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Runs have been hard to come by in this series with just seven runs scored between these two teams in the first two games of this series. Expect another low-scoring game. 25* MLB FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Miami Marlins (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Wei-Yin Chen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-18 |
Brighton & Hove Albion v. Liverpool UNDER 3.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Brighton and Hove Albion (2518) and Liverpool (2519). THE SITUATION: Brighton (1-0-1) is riding high after they pulled an upset over Manchester United last Saturday by a 3-2 score. Liverpool (2-0-0) remained unbeaten this year with their 2-0 win at Crystal Palace last Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Brighton may have scored three times last week against Man United but that was at home in their Amex Stadium. The Seagulls were 17th in the EPL last year by scoring only 34 times. In their last fourteen English Premier League matches on the road, they have been held scoreless in ten of those contests. Furthermore, in their last twelve matches against one of the big six teams in the EPL, Brighton has scored only three goals while losing all twelve contests. The Gulls so play solid defense as they were 9th in the EPL by allowing 54 goals. They will likely park the proverbial bus in back with the hopes of frustrating scoring opportunities for Liverpool. The Reds can struggle against sides that commit to deploying a deep defense. Liverpool has scored six times this season with a dynamic offense led by their Egyptian superstar Mohamed Salah. But what gets overlooked with the scoring prowess of this team is their improved play on defense as they have not yet surrendered a goal this year. The Reds have registered six straight clean sheets at home at Anfield which goes all the way back to February. The addition of Virgil Van Dijk in the January transfer window has really paid dividends to stabilize their back end.
FINAL TAKE: The Pool Boys should win this contest easily but I do not see them running up the score while likely holding Brighton scoreless. 10* EPL Brighton-Liverpool NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between Brighton and Hove Albion (2518) and Liverpool (2519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-18 |
Leicester v. Southampton OVER 2 |
|
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (2512) and Southampton (2513). Leicester City (1-0-1) won their first match of the season last Saturday with their 2-0 win over the Wolves. Southampton (0-1-1) looks to rebound from a 2-1 loss in Everton last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It might look tempting to take the Under when considering that Southampton has scored only one goal this season while conceding only two goals. But the Saints have had 27 scoring chances so far this season which is the third most in the English Premier League behind only Manchester City and Chelsea who have used their scoring opportunities to generate a combined 14 goals. Southampton’s aggressiveness should be rewarded soon with more balls in the net. The team got a big boost last week with the addition of Danny Ings to the pitch who played in his first match for the team since he acquired this summer on loan from Burnley. Inge scored their goal against Everton while being involved with a number of those scoring opportunities. The Saints were 6th in the EPL last season in shots and scoring opportunities but only saw that translate into 37 goals which was 14th most of the twenty league teams. They need better finishers like Inge. Southampton gets another booster in this match with Mohamed Elyounoussi fit and ready to take the pitch for his new team after being acquired in a transfer from Basel in the summer. The midfielder enjoyed a strong season in the Champions League last year so he should add some offensive punch. Leicester City has scored three times in their first two matches — but their first match was a challenging one at Old Trafford against Manchester United in which they lost by a 2-1 score. The team will be without their forward Jamie Vardy who was suspended for three games last week in that match against Wolverton. The Foxes still have scoring options without Vardy. He will be replaced on the pitch by their 21-year old Kelechp Iheanacho who has scored three times in four matches against Southampton in his young career. Leicester City has also added some offensive punch in their midfield with the signing of James Maddison who has looked impressive in his first two matches including scoring a goal last week. Look for the talented Demarai Gray to get his chance to play up top in this match as well. The Foxes won by a 4-1 score in their last trip to St. Mary’s last December. Leicester City offered solid Over bets last season as they were 7th in the EPL in scoring but 16th in goals allowed.
FINAL TAKE: I think both teams are likely to score a goal in this match — giving us a de-facto free roll with the Over as we take the chance that one of these teams will score a second time. 10* EPL Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (2512) and Southampton (2513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-18 |
Lions v. Bucs UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
33-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (259) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (260). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 30-17 upset loss at home to the Giants last Friday. Tampa Bay (2-0) comes off a 30-14 upset victory in Tennessee last Saturday where they were 3-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also played 3 straight games Under the Total are a double-digit upset loss at home as a home favorite. Detroit has lost and failed to cover the point spread in both their first two preseason games but rookie head coach Matt Patricia is embracing this third preseason game as the proverbial “dress rehearsal” contest. The Lions have played 9 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after suffering two straight preseason games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total after enduring at least two straight point spread losses in the preseason. Patricia is committed to having the Lions run the football to control time of possession and keep the defense off the field — so expect to see this strategy enacted in this contest. As it is, Detroit has played 8 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last preseason game. The Lions have also played 10 of their last 14 preseason games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Tampa Bay has played their last 3 preseason games Under the Total after allowing no more than 14 points in their previous preseason game under the guidance of head coach Dirk Koetter. The Buccaneers have seen their first two preseason games finish Over the Total — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 preseason games Under the Total after playing two straight preseason games Over the Total. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 4 straight preseason games Under the Total under Koetter — and this franchise has played 29 of their last 41 home games in the preseason Under the Total when favored by no more than 7 points. And in their last 18 preseason games against an NFC opponent, the Bucs have played 12 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Total has been bet up to the mid-40s for this game with Tampa Bay scoring 28.0 PPG this preseason — but that is likely an overreaction. These two teams tend to play lower scoring games in this preseason which should be the case with the first-stringers playing through the first-half but not wanting to reveal too much on offense against a potential opponent in the NFC Playoffs. 25* NFLx CBS-TV Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (259) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-18 |
Patriots v. Panthers UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
14-25 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (257) and the Carolina Panthers (258). THE SITUATION: New England (2-0) remained undefeated this preseason when they crushed the Eagles last Thursday by a 37-20 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Carolina (2-0) is also unscathed so far in the preseason after they defeated Miami by a 27-20 score as a 3-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers’ have averaged 27.5 PPG in their first two preseason games but their offense will likely struggle in this dress rehearsal game. The Carolina offensive line is without two of their starters with both Matt Kalil and Daryl Williams out with injuries. Not only will the Panthers miss these two players blocking for Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey but their absence will likely compel the Panthers to be even more conservative on offense so as to not risk an injury to Newton under center. As it is, Carolina has played 9 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Panthers have played 11 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total under head coach Ron Rivera when playing with six days or less of rest. Carolina has also played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total under Rivera’s leadership with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Panthers have played their first two preseason games Over the Total — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total after playing their two previous preseason games Over the Total. New England has also played their two preseason games Over the Total with their offense averaging 31.5 PPG. But the Patriots are only generating 317.8 total YPG this preseason so their scoring numbers should decrease. In their win over the Eagles last week, one of their touchdowns was scored from a 54-yard fumble recovery. New England has a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Patriots defense did allow 316 passing yards to Philly in that game — but they have then played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after allowing at least 300 passing yards in their last preseason contest. New England has played 10 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total after winning their last two preseason games. Now after playing their last two preseason games at home, the Patriots go on the road for the first time this month which should slow down their offense a bit. New England has played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after playing their last two preseason games at home. The Patriots have also played 11 of their last 17 preseason games Under the Total after winning their last two preseason games. Lastly, New England’s teams under Bill Belichick have played 13 of their last 21 road games in the preseason Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: While Tom Brady and Newton should play the first half, both teams have below average backups in Brian Hoyer and Garrett Gilbert. The high scoring games that both these two teams have played have attracted many bettors to take the Over which has pushed this Total up to the 45 point range. That is likely an overreaction which makes this strong Under situation even better. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (257) and the Carolina Panthers (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-18 |
Eagles v. Browns UNDER 41.5 |
|
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (251) and the Cleveland Browns (252). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 37-20 thrashing at the hands of the Patriots in New England last Thursday as a 4.5-point underdog. Cleveland (1-1) looks to rebound as well this week after they lost to Buffalo at home last week by a 19-17 score despite being 3-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns held the Bills to just 285 yards of offense in that game — but they managed only 247 yards of offense themselves which is why that final score fell below the 42.5 point total. Cleveland has now played 5 straight preseason games Under the Total at home under head coach Hue Jackson. The Browns have also played 8 straight preseason games Under the Total when facing an NFC opponent in the Jackson era. Cleveland’s first two games this preseason have finished Under the Total — and they have then played 11 of their last 15 preseason games Under the Total after playing their last two preseason games Under the Total. The Browns have also played 6 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total after a preseason loss at home by 3 points or less. And in their last 6 expected close games in the preseason where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, Cleveland has played all 6 games Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Eagles have played 29 of their last 39 preseason road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total when the number is posted in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have also played 6 straight Unders when the Total is set in that range overall.
FINAL TAKE: The Total tends to rise for the third preseason game which is typically the dress rehearsal contest for both teams. Expect this game to be relatively low-scoring. 10* NFLx Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (251) and the Cleveland Browns (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-18 |
Royals v. Rays UNDER 7.5 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Tyler Gasnow. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (66-61) won the opening game of this series last night with their 6-3 win over the Royals.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rays have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Tampa Bay’s bullpen did pitch for 7 innings last night — but they have played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen pitched for at least 7 innings. The Rays have not allowed more than three runs in four straight contests — and they have played 27 of their last 39 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in four straight games. They give the ball to Glasnow who is 1-3 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 74 2/3 innings between Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. The Rays have to be overjoyed with the right-hander so far as he posted a 3.37 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP in 18 2/3 innings of work. Glasnow has always had great potential as evidenced by the 24 strikeouts he has posted in a Tampa Bay uniform — but his control has been the concern. Glasnow has only issued six bases-on-balls since becoming a Ray. The sabermetrics are bullish as well with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.49 and 3.34 moving forward. He has been more effective at home this year where his ERA drops to a 2.77 mark — and his teams have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total in the month of August. He should fare well against this Royals team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .234 batting average along with a .286 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .681 over that span. Kansas City (38-89) has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Royals have lost their last seven games with the Rays — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when having lost at least five straight games to their opponent. They counter with Duffy who is 7-11 with a 4.90 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.68 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP in fifteen starts. Kansas City has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Duffy on the hill. He faces a Tampa Bay team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Lastly, the Rays have played 6 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 — and the Under is 19-6-2 in their last 27 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 115-36-1 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is in the 7-7.5 range for these two light-hitting teams — and that is a testament to the talent of Glasnow that finally seems to be unleashed with his improved control. 10* MLB Thursday Night O/U First Pitch with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Tyler Gasnow. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-22-18 |
Cardinals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
|
3-1 |
Win
|
101 |
7 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (70-57) has won four of their last five games with their 5-2 win over the Dodgers in the second game of this series last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-1-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games after a victory. The Under is also 6-2-1 in St. Louis’ last 9 games on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Flaherty who is 7-6 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.00 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .197 in eleven starts. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Cardinals’ last 8 road games with Flaherty facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Dodgers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles (67-60) has seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a loss — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 5-0-1 in the Dodgers’ last 6 games at home. They counter with Buehler who is 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in fifteen starts. The rookie right-hander has been tough at home where his ERA drops to a 2.77 mark along with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in eight starts. The Dodgers have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with Buehler on the hill. He faces a slumping Cardinals’ lineup that is hitting only .208 over their last seven games with a .278 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .668 during that span. Lastly, the Under is 3-0-1 in St. Louis’ last 4 games when facing right-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 55-11-4 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: In this battle of star rookie pitchers, expect both phenoms to rise to the occasion on national television and pitch very well. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-22-18 |
Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 9 |
|
4-10 |
Loss |
-104 |
4 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (973) and the Boston Red Sox (974) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Brian Johnson. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (73-52) has won nine of their last ten games after they won the second game of this series over the Red Sox by a 6-3 score last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-1-1 in the Indians’ last 5 games after a win — and they have also played 36 of their last 54 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Carrasco who is 15-6 with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twenty-three starts this season. The sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.14 and 3.12 respectively. Carrasco has also been more effective on the road where he has an ERA of 2.55 along with a 0.95 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in twelve starts. The Under is 12-4-1 in Cleveland’s last 17 road games with Carrasco facing a team with a winning record. He faces a slumping Boston lineup that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .225 batting average along with a .276 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .624. The Under is also a decisive 17-4-2 in the Red Sox’s last 23 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston (88-39) has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when avenging a loss as a home favorite — and they were -150 money-line favorites at home last night with Nathan Eovaldi on the hill. The Under is also 11-4-2 in the Red Sox’s last 17 games at home. They counter with Johnson who is 4-3 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 79 innings of work between the bullpen and spot starts. 46 1/3 of these innings were at home where Johnson sees his WHIP drop to a 1.32 mark along with a .253 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 1.45 WHIP and .271 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Boston has played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with Johnson on the hill. He faces an Indians team that has played 4 straight games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Together, these team trends produce our specific 107-35-6 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is set at 9 for this contest which is a bit high for a game with Carrasco on the hill. Johnson should pitch fine before the Red Sox go to their strong bullpen — take the Under. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (973) and the Boston Red Sox (974) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Brian Johnson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-20-18 |
Ravens v. Colts UNDER 43 |
Top |
20-19 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (431) and the Indianapolis Colts (432). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-0) remained undefeated in this preseason with a 33-7 win over the Los Angeles Rams last Thursday as a 3.5-point favorite. Indianapolis (1-0) also earned a victory last Thursday as they upset Seattle by a 19-17 score as a 2-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens were quite good on defense last week as they held the Rams to just 170 yards of offense. With eleven starters returning from last years’ team that was 6th in the NFL by holding opponents to just 18.9 PPG, the Ravens defense has a good chance to be one of the best units in the NFL this season — and they boast plenty of depth after enduring a few injury-riddled seasons. Depth is a critical factor in handicapping preseason NFL action — and the Ravens have played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 3 points. Furthermore, Baltimore has allowed only 7 points in their two preseason games so far this month — and they have then played 6 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total under head coach Jim Harbaugh after not allowing more than 7 points in the first-half of their previous two preseason games. On offense, rookie Lamar Jackson had a better game against the Rams than his opening contest against the Bears but he does not appear ready to challenge Joe Flacco to be the starter anytime soon. He should see plenty of action tonight with Robert Griffin III looking solid as a veteran backup on this team. Baltimore has played 10 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after winning their last two preseason games. And in their last 6 preseason games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Ravens have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Colts defense also flexed their muscles last week by holding the Seahawks to just 195 yards of offense. What Indy lacks in defensive talent they make up for in plenty of roster competition to earn spots everywhere — so this unit will play very hard tonight. QB Andrew Luck looked good last week by completing 6 of 9 passes for 64 yards — but I do not expect new head coach Frank Reich to push the envelope too much with him by playing for an extended period of time. Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. The Colts have also played 16 of their last 22 home preseason games as a favorite of 3 points or less. Additionally, Indy has played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 5 preseason games against fellow AFC opponents, the Colts have played 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Total for this game has been up significantly with the number opening at 37 but it is now listed in many places as high as 43. I love it. 25* NFLx ESPN Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (431) and the Indianapolis Colts (432). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-19-18 |
Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
8-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (913) and the Philadelphia Phillies (914) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta. THE SITUATION: These two teams have split the first four games of this series after New York (53-69) defeated Philadelphia (68-55) yesterday by a 3-1 score. This series travels south to Williamsport, Pennsylvania for ESPN’s second annual Little League Classic to be played at Bowman Field (with Major League dimensions).
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York had been on-fire with their bats just a few days ago — but, alas, they have already begun to cool off after scoring 16 runs on Wednesday before plating 24 runners in the opening game of this series on Thursday which was Game One of the double-header that day. The Mets have a .330 batting average over their last five games — but they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after hitting at least .315 over their last five games. This regression is already taking place as they have just a .202 On-Base Percentage over their last three games — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not having better than a .260 On-Base Percentage over their last three contests. Additionally, New York has played a decisive 51 of their last 83 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They give the ball to Vargas who has been a disappointment this year with a 2-8 record with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP in thirteen starts. But the right-hander has perhaps found his groove again after allowing only two runs in 6 innings of work in his last start against the Orioles. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 games with Vargas on the hill — and Vargas’ teams have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total with him making the start for a night game. Vargas faces a Phillies team that has seen the Under go 40-19-2 in their last 61 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. The Phillies have also played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a loss by no more than two runs. They counter with Pivetta who is 7-9 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. While the Mets are the technical home team, this is an unfamiliar environment for Pivetta — yet he pitched 6 scoreless innings in his last start away from Citi Field in Arizona. The Under is 8-1-2 in New York’s last 11 games with Pivetta pitching after a loss — and the Phillies have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total with Pivetta pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Lastly, in the last 12 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 9 times.
FINAL TAKE: The first Little League Classic was also played in Williamsburg last August with the Pirates defeating the Cardinals by a 6-3 score with Ivan Nova defeating Mike Leake. Expect this contest to see fewer runs. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (913) and the Philadelphia Phillies (914) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-18-18 |
Arsenal v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Arsenal (2500) and Chelsea (2501). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (0-0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 2-0 loss to Manchester City last Sunday. Chelsea (1-0-0) earned a win in their opening match last Saturday with a 3-0 win at Huddersfield.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both these teams are learning new systems under new managers that prioritize offensive tactics. Maurizio Sarri has to be pleased with Chelsea scoring three times on the road in their opening match. Sarri has his team playing high while emphasizing speed and controlling possession which is a radical departure from the defensive counter-attacking tactics of their previous manager Antonio Conte. The results against Huddersfield was to get their defensive midfielders more involved as N’Golo Kante and their new summer transfer Jorginho both scored goals along with Pedro from the midfield. The Blues attempted a healthy 13 shots last week. Generating more goals is a priority for Sarri after this team finished 6th in goals scored last season but with their 62 tally far behind the top-five teams in that category. The starting XI also looks to get a boost with Eden Hazard likely to start after not being fit after getting time off after his World Cup efforts with Belgium. But this renewed emphasis on playing high with speed will make Chelsea vulnerable in their back end. Huddersfield forced ten turnovers in the Blues’ back last week which they were not able to convert into goals. The transition from Conte’s preferred 3-5-2 formation to a 4-3-3 is asking the Chelsea defenders to embrace some new responsibilities which might produce some growing pains for players like Marcos Alonso who had been given the green light to drift more into the offensive end of the pitch when on the attack. The Blues also have a new goalkeeper in Kepa Arrizabalaga who might experience some cohesion issues with his new club when facing a rise in competition this week after just being acquired at the beginning of the month. Arsenal did not score against the reigning EPL Champions last week — but they did show spunk by forcing seven turnovers in Man City’s back end which should lead to scoring chances if continued in this match. New manager Unai Emery wants his team to employ the en-vogue high-pressing system to create more scoring chances. This attack came alive late in the match when Alexandre Lacazette was subbed in to play alongside Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. This forward pairing should get the start in this important match. The bigger challenge for Emery and this Gunners’ squad is shoring things up on defense after the finished a disappointing 9th in the EPL by allowing 51 goals. The Arsenal back line is the biggest weakness of the team — and this group is banged up now and not close to 100%. Frankly, the team needs to upgrade their center-backers but that is not an option at this early part of the season. Instead, the high-pressing system will likely lead to some nervy moments when these tactics fail — Man City attempted 17 shots with eight on target last week.
FINAL TAKE: This is an important early match for two teams that are fighting for a Top-Four finish this season. Both sides have leaky defenses with new systems still being worked out. With both teams also emphasizing a renewed aggressiveness in offensive tactics, expect a higher-scoring match. 25* EPL NBC-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Arsenal (2500) and Chelsea (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-18 |
Astros v. A's UNDER 8 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (927) and the Oakland A’s (928) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Edwin Jackson. THE SITUATION: Houston (74-47) snapped their five-game losing streak with a 12-1 win over Colorado on Wednesday. Oakland (72-49) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with a 2-0 loss in Seattle.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an off-day — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also a decisive 14-3-2 in the Astros’ last 19 games on the road. They give the ball to Morton who is 12-3 with a 2.88 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.73 ERA in ten starts. Houston has played 4 straight road games Under the Total with Morton on the mound. He faces an A’s team that has played 18 of their last 28 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Oakland (72-49) has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two runs — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the A’s have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where less than four combined runs were scored — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after an off day. Furthermore, Oakland has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total. They counter with Jackson who is 4-2 with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 1.80 ERA with a 0.76 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .159 in four starts. Jackson’s teams have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total at night. He should thrive against this slumping Houston team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .227 batting average along with a .291 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .666 over that span. Lastly, the Under is 8-1-1 in the Astros’ last 10 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams with two wily veteran starting pitchers on the hill. 10* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (927) and the Oakland A’s (928) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Edwin Jackson. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-18 |
Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8 |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the St. Louis Cardinals (912) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (68-55) has lost four of their last six games after their 8-4 loss in Chicago against the Cubs on Wednesday. St. Louis (66-56) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped won Wednesday with their 5-4 loss to Washington yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Brewers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after an off-day — and the Over is 16-5-1 in their last 22 games when facing an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. Milwaukee has also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total. They give the ball to Peralta who is 5-3 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where his ERA rises to a 5.17 mark along with a 1.50 WHIP in seven starts. The Brewers have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Peralta making the start. He faces a Cardinals team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .357 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .878. St. Louis has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs. The Cardinals have also played 18 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less. St. Louis has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Flaherty who is 6-6 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in nineteen starts. The rookie right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has an ERA of 3.53 with a 1.11 WHIP. The Cardinals have played 4 straight games Under the Total with Flaherty pitching with five days of rest. He also faces a hot-hitting team as the Brewers are scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .331 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .780.
FINAL TAKE: The number is generally at 8 in most locations for this game. Both with two lineups hitting the ball well facing young starting pitchers that have an ever-growing book being written on their strengths and weaknesses, expect a higher-scoring game. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the St. Louis Cardinals (912) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-18 |
Bills v. Browns UNDER 41.5 |
|
19-17 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (413) and the Cleveland Browns (414). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (0-1) looks to bounce-back from an upset 28-23 loss to Carolina as a 3-point favorite last Thursday. Cleveland (1-0) comes off a 20-10 upset victory in New York against the Giants as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills generated 443 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Panthers — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total after generating at least 400 yards in their previous preseason game. Buffalo will be starting Nathan Peterman under center who was impressive last week by completing 9 of 10 passes for 119 yards against the Carolina defense. The Bills do not particularly want to start the veteran A.J. McCarron who they acquired in the offseason from the Browns because he simply has not shown enough with his opportunities in Cleveland. The future is with their rookie QB Josh Allen who completed only 9 of 19 passes last week for 116 yards. The former Wyoming QB had some impressive thrown in that game but he also committed some bad bloopers that suggested he is not ready for this level of competition. Buffalo has played 13 of their last 17 preseason games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Bills have also played 4 straight road preseason games Under the Total as an underdog. Cleveland held the Giants to only 327 yards of offseason last week but it was their quarterbacks in Tyrod Taylor and rookie Baker Mayfield who garnered most of the attention. Mayfield looked poised and confident under center but Taylor looks to clearly be the more capable quarterback for this team right now. The Browns owned a 13-3 lead at halftime against the Giants — and they have played 8 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 first-half points in their last preseason games. Cleveland has also played 5 straight preseason games Under the Total after a preseason game that finished below the Under. Furthermore, the Browns have played 4 straight preseason home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Total for this game has been bet up into the low-40s which is pretty high for the second week of the preseason. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFLx Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (413) and the Cleveland Browns (414). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-18 |
Giants v. Lions UNDER 40 |
Top |
30-17 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (407) and the Detroit Lions (408). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce-back after suffering a 20-10 upset loss last Thursday at home against Cleveland as a 1-point favorite in their first preseason game. Detroit (0-1) also looks to get a victory after they lost last Friday in Oakland by a 16-10 score as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams had joint practices this week — so this game will serve as the culmination of that work. The most aggressive play-calling often occurs in those simulated practice sessions — these exhibition games often end up particularly vanilla as the culmination of these scrimmages. The Giants plan on using this game to given an extended look to second-year backup quarterback Davis Webb who is competing with rookie Kyle Lavletta for the backup job to Eli Manning. Webb struggled last week against the Browns as he completed only 9 of 22 passes for only 70 yards. Lavletta was OK but not particularly impressive in his professional debut as he completed 6 of his 9 passes but that only produced 48 yards. New York has played 14 of their last 21 preseason games Under the Total after a double-digit loss in the preseason. The Giants have also played 6 of their last 8 road preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Additionally, New York has played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total as an underdog. Detroit managed to generate only 253 yards of offense last week against the Raiders. But I do not expect rookie head coach Matt Patricia to have any plans on opening up the offense this week. General manager Bob Quinn considered last year’s team too soft on both sides of the football. I expect the Lions to commit to trying to improve their running game while perhaps giving a bunch of carries to Ameer Abdullah who is on the trading block after they signed LeGarrette Blount in the offseason before drafting Auburn’s Kerryone Johnson in the second round of the NFL draft. This second exhibition game looks to be a showcase for third-year QB Jake Rudock who is fighting for the backup job to Matthew Stafford. Rudock completed 12 of 19 passes for 84 yards last week against the Raiders but failed to generate enough scoring opportunities in moving the offense. Detroit has played 21 of their last 33 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 6 preseason games overall Under the Total with the number set in that range.
FINAL TAKE: Much of the important work for both these rookie head coaches in the Giants’ Pat Shurmer and Patricia of the Lions has already been done this week. Look for this to be a game fought in the trenches which is an area of emphasis for both coaches. Expect a low-scoring game. 25* NFLx NFC Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (407) and the Detroit Lions (408). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-16-18 |
Jets v. Redskins UNDER 38.5 |
|
13-15 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (403) and the Washington Redskins (404). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-1) looks to play better after they were defeated by the Patriots in New England in their opening preseason game last Thursday by a 26-17 score as a 2.5-point underdog. New York (1-0) comes off a 17-0 shutout win over Atlanta last Friday as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets’ defense flexed their muscles last week by shutting out the Falcons while holding them to just 254 yards of offense. New York went into halftime with that 17-0 lead — and they have played 3 of their last 4 preseason games Under the Total after owning at least a 14-point lead going into half of their last preseason game. The Jets did not score in the second-half with rookie Sam Darnold under center — and they gained only 253 yards of offense in that game overall so their offense still has some work to accomplish. It will be Darnold who will likely start this game. New York has played 7 of their last 9 preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Jets have also played 6 of their last 9 preseason games Under the Total in the Todd Bowles era. Washington’s defense was solid last week as they held the Patriots offense to just 305 yards of offense. They have played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total after a point spread loss in the preseason. The Skins have also played 7 straight preseason games Under the Total when playing with 6 days or less of rest between preseason games. Furthermore, Washington has played 6 of their last 8 preseason home games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home preseason games Under the Total with the number posted in the 38.5 to 42 point range.
FINAL TAKE: With the number posted in the high-30s for this second preseason game, that solid fundamental play for this situation is to invest in the Under. 10* NFLx Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (403) and the Washington Redskins (404). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-15-18 |
Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (907) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) listing both starting pitchers Derek Holland and Hyun-Jin Ryu. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (61-60) has won three straight games with their 2-1 win over the Dodgers last night in the second game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants have seen the Under go 15-4-3 in their last 22 games after a win. The Under is also 15-5-2 in San Francisco’s last 22 games on the road. They give the ball to Holland who is 6-8 with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 22 starts (26 games). The lefty has been more effective on the road where he sports a 3.80 ERA in thirteen starts (14 games). The Giants have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with Holland facing a team with a winning record — and Holland’s teams have played 7 straight games Under the Total as a big underdog priced at least at +150. He faces a Dodgers team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .239 batting average along with a .296 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .695 over that span. Los Angeles (64-57) has played 30 of their last 42 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and this includes a 16-5-2 mark with the Under when playing at home against left-handed starters. The Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. Additionally, the Dodgers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games at home. They see Ryu return to the mound after serving most of the season on the disabled list with a groin injury. Ryu was 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP in six starts before suffering that calamity. In his two starts at home, the left-hander had not given an up an earned run while posting a 0.54 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of 0.71. Ryu was better at home last year as well where he enjoyed a 3.48 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP as opposed to his 4.04 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP on the road. The Dodgers have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Ryu on the hill. He faces a Giants team with a .229 batting average along with a .291 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .598 over their last seven games. Lastly, the Under is 9-2-2 in San Francisco’s last 13 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 108-29-10 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams sending out left-handed starting pitchers facing slumping respective lineups. 10* MLB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (907) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) listing both starting pitchers Derek Holland and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-15-18 |
Red Sox v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
4-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the Philadelphia Phillies (922) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Vincent Velasquez. THE SITUATION: Boston (86-35) has won eleven of their last twelve games with their 2-1 win over the Phillies yesterday in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 4 games after a victory — and the Under is 9-0-2 in their last 11 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in Boston’s last 4 games on the road. They give the ball to Eovaldi who is 5-4 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander looks to redeem himself from a terrible outing where he got rocked for eight runs (six earned) while surrendering a season-high 10 hits in an exasperating outing against the anemic Orioles. Eovaldi began the start with a microscopic 0.43 ERA along with a 0.67 WHIP in his three previous starts with the latter two being in a Red Sox uniform after being acquired from the Twins. Eovaldi’s teams have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total with him on the mound with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. He faces a cold Phillies lineup that is scoring only 2.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .170 batting average, .247 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .507 over that span. The Under is 9-1-1 in Philadelphia’s last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Phillies (65-53) have seen the Under go 40-15-4 in their last 59 games after a loss. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored — and they have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. Furthermore, the Phillies have played 8 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Velasquez who is 8-9 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty-two starts.Over his last ten appearances, Velasquez has a sparkling 2.68 ERA. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.17 WHIP and .216 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as compared to his 1.29 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Phillies have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Velasquez on the hill. he faces a Red Sox team that has seen the Under go 15-5-2 in their last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and this includes the Under go 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Under is now 6-0-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
FINAL TAKE: Eovaldi should bounce-back with a strong effort tonight — expect a lower scoring game between these two teams that tend to play Unders. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the Philadelphia Phillies (922) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Vincent Velasquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-14-18 |
Rockies v. Astros UNDER 7 |
|
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (977) and the Houston Astros (978) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Justin Verlander. THE SITUATION: Colorado (63-55) has won three straight games with their 4-3 win in Los Angeles over the Dodgers on Sunday. Houston (73-46) has lost four in a row after their 4-3 loss in Seattle on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockies have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win — and the Under is 3-1-2 in their last 6 games after an off-day. Additionally, Colorado has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog pried at least at +150 — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Rockies have also played 26 of their last 37 games Under the Total in the month of August. They give the ball to Marquez who is 9-9 with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The sabermetrics indicate the right-hander should be seeing much better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.75 and 3.55 respectively. Marquez has also been more effective on the road away from Coors Field where he owns a 3.09 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in eleven starts. Additionally, the Under is 20-9-2 in Colorado’s last 31 games with Marquez facing a team with a winning record. He faces a cold Astros lineup that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .208 batting average along with a .271 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .600 over that span. Furthermore, Houston has played 4 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Astros have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run. Additionally, the Under is 11-5-3 in Houston’s last 19 games after an off-day. The Astros have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Verlander who is 11-7 with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in twenty-five starts. Houston has played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Verlander on the hill. The Rockies are scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .243 batting average along with a .297 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .684. Lastly, the Under is 8-3-1 in Colorado’s last 12 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Together, these team trends produce our specific 135-43-9 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a pitcher’s duel between these two starting pitchers facing slumping lineups. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (977) and the Houston Astros (978) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Justin Verlander. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-13-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Rangers OVER 9.5 |
|
3-5 |
Loss |
-122 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (915) and the Texas Rangers (916) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Bartolo Colon. THE SITUATION: Arizona (65-54) travels to Arlington after their 9-2 win in Cincinnati yesterday. Texas (52-68) has lost three of their last four games with their 7-2 loss in New York against the Yankees.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total after scoring at least eight runs in their last game — and they have now played 40 of their last 64 games Over the Total in the month of August. Arizona has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 28 road games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, in the Diamondbacks’ last 22 opening games to a new series, the Over is 15-6-1. They give the ball to Greinke who is 12-7 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.52 mark along with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .256. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Greinke facing a team with a losing record. He faces a hot-hitting Rangers team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Texas has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Rangers have seen the Over go 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Texas has also played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new series Over the Total. They counter with Colon who is 6-10 with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in twenty-one starts. Since June, the aging veteran has a rough ERA of 6.72. The right-hander has not been as effective at home either where his ERA rises to a 5.65 mark along with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .285. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Rangers’ last 5 home games with Colon facing a team with a winning record. Together, these team trends produce our specific 134-57 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a high scoring game between these two teams in the Texas heat. 10* MLB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (915) and the Texas Rangers (916) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Bartolo Colon. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-13-18 |
Mets v. Yankees OVER 7 |
Top |
8-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: The Mets (49-66) has won three of their last four games after their 4-3 win in Miami yesterday. The Yankees (74-43) has won six of their last seven games with their 7-2 win over Texas on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 6-2-1 in the Mets’ last 9 games after a win — and the Mets’ have played 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new series Over the Total. The Mets have also played 21 of their last 28 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced at least at +150 — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when facing an American League opponent. They give the ball to DeGrom who is 6-7 with a 1.77 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twenty-three starts. While DeGrom has been outstanding this season, the sabermetrics indicate he should be giving up more than one run more per start given his SIERA of 2.94 and his xFIP of 2.78. And while DeGrom has been almost unhittable at home where he owns a 1.60 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .191 in thirteen starts, he is closer to a mere mortal when on the road where he his ERA rises to a 2.02 mark along with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225. The Mets have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with DeGrom pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. He faces a Yankees team that scores 5.7 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. The Over is 3-1-1 the Bronx Bombers’ last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 3-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games after a win — and they have played 29 of their last 40 home games Over the Total after a win by at least four runs. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 6 of their last 8 opening games to a new series — and the Over is 4-1-2 in their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Severino who is 15-5 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander has struggled as of late with a 7.31 ERA over his last six starts with him struggling with command on his fastball. He comes off a solid outing last Wednesday where he allowed three earned runs in 7 innings of work — but that was against the lowly White Sox. The Yankees have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Severino pitching on four days of rest. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 4.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. Lastly, the Over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in Yankee Stadium.
FINAL TAKE: The number is posted at a low 7 with two of the best pitchers in baseball on the hill — but expect this to be a higher scoring contest. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-12-18 |
Mariners v. Astros OVER 8 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (975) and the Houston Astros (976) listing both starting pitchers Erasmo Ramirez and Dallas Keuchel. THE SITUATION: Seattle (68-50) has won three straight games with their 3-2 victory over the Astros yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 18 of their last 29 games Over the Total after a one-run win over an AL West rival. This will be the seventh straight game over an AL West opponent — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least six straight games against divisional foes. And while Seattle has stranded four and five runners on base in their last two games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after stranding five or less runners in two straight games. The Mariners have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the month of August. They get Ramirez back after a long stint on the disabled list since April after pitching just 9 2/3 innings of work in April. The right-hander was 5-6 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP between work with the Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays — but while he had a 2.49 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP when pitching at home, those numbers exploded to a 6.04 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP when on the road. Ramirez’s teams have played 9 of their last 12 road games Over the Total with him on the hill. He faces an Astros team that scores 5.8 Runs-Per-Game during day games — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. Houston (73-45) lost by a 5-2 score in Game Two of this series — and they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when avenging two straight losses where they failed to score more than two runs. The Astros have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 fourth games of a series Over the Total. They counter with Keuchel who is 9-9 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The sabermetrics suggest he should see some regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.01 and 3.70 moving forward. The left-hander has also not been as effective at home where he has a 4.16 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP in eleven starts. The Over is 3-1-1 in Houston’s last 5 games with Keuchel facing a team with a winning record — and the Astros have also played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Keuchel pitching as a big money-line favorite priced in the -175 to -250 range. Together, these team trends produce our specific 92-40-1 combined angle for this situation. He faces a Mariners team that is scoring a healthy 5.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .284 batting average along with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .789 during that span.
FINAL TAKE: Ramirez is a middling starting pitcher who has struggled when pitching away from home. Expect a higher-scoring game between these two teams with the Astros looking to avoid being swept at home. 10* MLB Seattle-Houston TBS O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (975) and the Houston Astros (976) listing both starting pitchers Erasmo Ramirez and Dallas Keuchel. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-12-18 |
Manchester City v. Arsenal OVER 2.5 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-182 |
0 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (255) and Arsenal (256). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (0-0-0) begins their reign as defending English Premier League Champions by traveling to Emirates Stadium to face Arsenal (0-0-0).
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manchester City is loaded with an array of offensive talent. They broke an English Premier League record last season by scoring 106 goals in their 38 matches. All their significant players return this season — plus they added new offensive talent in midfielder Riyah Mahrez from Leicester City. It does look as if Raheem Sterling and Kevin DeBruyne may not start in this match given that they just began training with the team this week after their late World Cup work this summer with England and Belgium last month — but that gives opportunities to anxious substitutes. If there is a growing weakness with this side, it is their aging defense with three key players on the wrong proverbial side of 30 years old. Manager Pep Guardiola’s high-pressing system is vulnerable to counter-attacks which is where Arsenal may score themselves. The Gunners have a new manager Unai Emery who will be looking to implement a similar system as of Pep’s — but while that could create new scoring opportunities for them, it might also expose their rather suspect back line. Arsenal’s defense was their weakness last year as they were 9th in the EPL by allowing 51 goals. The Gunners do have some exciting offensive options with the pairing of Alexendre Lacazatte and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang whom they acquired last year offering two dynamic forward options who will be on the pitch together.
FINAL TAKE: I do expect Arsenal to play well at home in this opening match for Emery. Expect a high-scoring match where the Gunners keep it interesting despite a leaky defense exposed by the grow pains of a new system. 10* EPL Manchester City-Arsenal NBC Sports Network Special with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (255) and Arsenal (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-18 |
Vikings v. Broncos UNDER 36.5 |
|
42-28 |
Loss |
-106 |
5 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (279) and the Denver Broncos (280). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-0) begins their NFL exhibition season by traveling to Denver (0-0) to face the Broncos.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have completely retooled their quarterback situation — but they still have most of the pieces to their outstanding defense that was top-to-bottom one of the very best units in the NFL last season. Zimmer’s teams in Minnesota have played 8 of their last 10 NFL preseason games Under the Total against AFC opponents. The Vikings have also played 6 of their last 8 preseason road games Under the Total when playing on the road. The Minnesota QB situation is pretty settled after having three quarterbacks with a decent claim at the starting job in Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater who eventually recovered from his ACL injury, and Case Keenum who seized the starting job when given the opportunity given yet another injury to Bradford. The team signed Kirk Cousins from Washington in the offseason who will clearly be the starter this season. Cousins will likely not play much tonight. His backup is Trevor Siemian who has 24 starts under his belt in his career with the Broncos. There is a battle for the third string job with rookie Peter Pujols battling second-year pro Kyle Sloter out of Northern Colorado. Those two former FCS quarterbacks will likely play at least the entire second half with their job competition to be determined before the next round of roster cuts. Neither inspires confidence. Denver (0-0) was 4-0 in last year’s preseason in the first year of head coach Vance Joseph. The Broncos were quite stingy on defense as they held those four opponents to just 12.5 PPG along with only 271.0 total YPG. Denver also has a new quarterbacking situation with Keenum being signed to compete for their starting QB job with third-year pro Paxton Lynch. The former Memphis QB has been a disappointment with the Broncos while making four professional starts. The third-stringer is second-year pro Chad Kelly out of Ole Miss who did not play in an NFL regular season game last year. That crew of QBs (with Keenum not likely to play much) will likely lead to a lackluster offensive effort tonight. As it is, Denver has played 3 of their last 4 preseason games at home Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Broncos have also played 30 of their last 50 preseason games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: This is an interesting initial preseason game for both teams since they will be playing against their former starting quarterbacks. Minnesota was not happy with Keenum — so they should be happy to demonstrate why he was not retained. Denver is well aware of Siemian who played his first three seasons with the Broncos. Expect a low scoring game. 10* NFLx Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (279) and the Denver Broncos (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|