All Sports Archive |
Date |
Match Up |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Lead Time |
Analysis |
07-20-19 |
Nationals v. Braves UNDER 10 |
Top |
5-3 |
Win
|
101 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (909) and the Atlanta Braves (910) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Mike Soroka. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (59-40) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 4-3 victory over the Nationals. Washington (51-45) has now lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves were a small money-line underdog yesterday with Julio Teheran facing off against Patrick Corbin — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after delivering an upset victory as a home underdog. The Under is also now 6-2-1 in Atlanta’s last 9 games at home — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against NL East opponents. The Braves have also played 9 of their last 13 games in the month of July Under the Total. They give the ball to Soroka who is 10-1 with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in sixteen starts. The rookie phenom has given up more than two runs only four times in those sixteen starts. The right-hander’s formula for success has been to limit gopher balls which is a tantalizing quality in this current home run obsessed era of launch angles. Soroka has given up only four home runs this year for a microscopic 0.38 Home Runs Allowed per 9 inning rate. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Soroka facing a team with a winning record — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total with him starting as the favorite priced in the -100 to -150 price range. He faces a Nationals team that has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is also 7-1-1 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Washington has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a loss. The Nationals have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the month of July — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow NL East opponents. This is Washington’s seventh straight game on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games after playing their previous four games Under the Total. The Nationals have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road overall. They counter with Sanchez who is 5-6 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in seventeen starts this season. The veteran right-hander has not allowed more than three earned runs in fourteen of those starts — and he is 5-0 with a 2.40 ERA in his last five starts. The former Brave has a 3.00 ERA in two starts against Atlanta this year. And Sanchez has been a bit more effective on the road where he owns a 3.67 ERA with a .236 batting average in nine starts as opposed to his 3.76 ERA and .239 opponent’s batting average at home. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Sanchez facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Braves lineup that has cooled off significantly this month — they are scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .244 batting average along with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 693 in those contests.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Braves were interesting with Overs last month — but it is time to zig from that zag. 25* MLB FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (909) and the Atlanta Braves (910) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Mike Soroka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-20-19 |
Edmonton v. Montreal UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
10-20 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Edmonton Eskimos (693) and the Montreal Alouettes (694). THE SITUATION: Edmonton (3-1) enters this game coming off a 33-6 win at British Columbia as a 3-point favorite back on July 11th. Montreal (2-2) pulled off their second-straight upset victory with their 36-19 win at Ottawa last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eskimos are playing the best defense in the CFL as they are holding their opponents to just 226.5 total YPG in their four games. They registered five sacks last week against the Lions while holding them to only 210 yards of offense in their win on the road in British Columbia last week. Edmonton has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Eskimos limited BC to just 124 passing yards in that game as well — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 200 passing yards in their last contest. Furthermore, Edmonton held Winnipeg in their building to just 273 yards of offense two weeks ago — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 YPG over their last two contests. But the Eskimos stay on the road for the third straight week which may mean trouble for their offense to continue to execute at a high level. Edmonton is leading the CFL by averaging 452.5 total YPG under their offseason free-agent acquisition in quarterback Trevor Harris. But that number drops to 396.5 total YPG in their two games on the road. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Eskimos last 8 games on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the number set at 52 or higher. Montreal has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 38 points in a victory over an East Division rival. Additionally, the Alouettes have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. After getting routed at home to Hamilton by a 41-10 score back on June 28th, the formula for Montreal’s success has been a commitment to run the football. Running back Willie Stanback rushed 22 times for 203 yards in their 36-29 revenge win at Hamilton the following week before gaining 100 yards on the ground on 18 carries in their upset win at Ottawa. This dedication to running the football has helped the Alouettes burn time off the clock while keeping their defense fresher — and that tends to be a formula for Unders. Montreal held the football for 34:55 minutes while generating 30 first downs two weeks ago against the Tiger-Cats before controlling the time of possession for 33:46 last week while earning 24 first downs — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where they gained at least 22 first downs while controlling the clock for at least 32 minutes. And while the Alouettes have gained 467 and 474 yards in each of their last two games, they have then played 16 of the last 21 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in two straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Eskimos’ 32-25 win over Montreal back on June 14th in the opening regular-season game for both these teams. Expect the defenses to gain the upper hand in this rematch. 25* Canadian Football League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Edmonton Eskimos (693) and the Montreal Alouettes (694). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-19-19 |
Aces v. Storm UNDER 157 |
|
66-69 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Aces (635) and the Seattle Storm (636). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (11-5) has won five straight games with their 85-81 upset win at Washington last Saturday as a 2-point underdog. Seattle (11-8) has won three straight games in a row themselves with their 90-79 upset victory in Minnesota on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Storm made 53.2% of their shots on Wednesday which was the second-best shooting effort of their season. Seattle nailed 12 shots from behind the arc to help them pull the upset over the Lynx. The Storm have played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after making at least eleven shots from 3-point land in their last contest. Additionally, Seattle has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where at least 165 combined points were scored — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is 13-3-2 in the Storm’s last 18 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after a point spread victory. The Under is also 16-4-1 in Seattle’s last 21 games when playing with just one day of rest. Las Vegas has had five days to rest and prepare for this Storm offense — and their head coach Bill Laimbeer will certainly have prepared his team to tighten things up on defense. The Aces have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Las Vegas has also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after allowing at least 75 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Aces have also played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. This Las Vegas team plays good defense — the 38.9% shooting from the field that the Mystics managed was the highest opponent field goal percentage in their last three games. The Aces are holding their last five opponents to that 38.9% shooting mark. Las Vegas stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the June 25th encounter between these two teams that the Aces won by a 60-56 score. Expect another defensive battle between these two teams. 10* WNBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Aces (635) and the Seattle Storm (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-19-19 |
Ottawa v. Winnipeg UNDER 52.5 |
Top |
1-31 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (691) and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (692). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (2-2) has suffered their second straight upset loss with their 36-19 loss at home to Montreal as a 9-point favorite last Saturday. Winnipeg (4-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 48-21 win over Toronto as a 15-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Redblacks’ defense played well in the first half as they went into the locker room in a 9-9 deadlocked score — but four turnovers including three lost fumbles eventually were too much for this team to overcome. Ottawa has then played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after suffering a loss at home to a divisional rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss against an East Division rival as a favorite laying at least 6 points. And while the Redblacks have lost the turnover battle in their last two games, they have then played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after enduring at least a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. Ottawa’s loss to the Alouettes finished above the 51.5 point Total — and they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. The Redblacks will be without their starting quarterback Dominique Davis for tonight’s game after he got banged up last week. Instead, Jonathan Jennings will make his first start for Ottawa this season since being signed as a free agent in the offseason. The Redblacks will be leaning on their defense with Jennings at QB despite surrendering 457.3 total YPG. Ottawa has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards per game in their last three contests. The Redblacks have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the month of July. Winnipeg has played 6 straight games at home Under the Total after a victory by at least 17 points — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Blue Bombers raced out to a 37-6 halftime lead over the Argonauts last week — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after scoring at least 27 points in the first half of their last game. And while Winnipeg has covered all four games they have played this season, they have then played 16 of their last 20 home games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Blue Bombers lead the CFL by allowing only 365.0 total YPG — and they have limited their four opponents to just 19.7 PPG. I expect Ottawa to play Winnipeg tough — but they may not be able to score enough points with Jennings making his first start under center. The stronger play is with the Under. 25* CFL Friday Night Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (691) and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (692). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-19-19 |
Algeria v. Senegal UNDER 2 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Algeria (235605) and Senegal (235606) in the Finals of the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Algeria (W5-1D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Africa Cup of Nations on Sunday with their 2-1 win over Nigeria. Senegal (W5-D0-L1) joined them in this championship match with their 1-0 win over Tunisia on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Senegal scored on an own goal in the 100th minute which made the winning difference in their Semifinals match against Tunisia. Scoring is an issue for this side with the Lions of Teranga having not scored a goal from one of their own players 2 hours and 21 minutes of play. Sadio Mane is their only player to find the back of the net only once — and the Liverpool star has shown the physical effects of carrying his national team in the Knockout Stage as he has looked like he was lacking energy at times. Senegal is also undermanned in this championship match. They were already missing their top goaltender, Eduard Mendy, who is dealing with an injury. Now they will be without their best backline player in the 6’5 Kalidou Coulibaly who is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card on Sunday. Manager Aliou Cisse has already had his team embrace defensive tactics in this tournament. All three of their victories in the Knockout Stage have been by 1-0 scores. With Mane seeming to be tired and their defense undermanned, look for the Lions of Teranga to be even more frugal with the chances they are willing to take. Algeria defense has also been stout as they have surrendered only two goals in those six matches. Three of the Desert Foxes six matches have seen more than two goals scored — but their Semifinals match with Nigeria saw that third goal scored my Mahrez in the last play of the game in the 95th minute.
FINAL TAKE: Senegal managed only one shot on target in the Semifinals — and Algeria only had two shot attempts in their Semifinals match against Nigeria. Both of these teams look to be content playing a defensive struggle where they then rely on their respective superstars, Mahrez and Mane, looking to score a winning goal late in the match. These two teams played to a 1-0 score when they played in the Group Stage back on June 27th which the Desert Foxes won. Expect another low scoring match this afternoon. 10* Africa Cup of Nations Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Algeria (235605) and Senegal (235606). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-18-19 |
Astros v. Angels OVER 10 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (923) and the Los Angeles Angels (924) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Matt Harvey. THE SITUATION: Houston (60-37) won the third game of this series last night by an 11-2 score. Los Angeles (50-47) saw their five-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 3-1-1 in the Astros last 5 games after a win — and they have played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a victory by at least six runs against a fellow AL West rival. Additionally, the Over is 8-1-2 in their last 11 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total on the road against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Miley who is 7-4 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in nineteen starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.54 and 4.38 moving forward based on Miley’s peripheral numbers. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.50 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .240 in eleven starts as compared to his outstanding 1.86 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .199 opponent’s batting average at home. The Astros have played 5 of their last 7 road games with Miley pitching priced in the +/- 125 range. Houston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Miley pitching with the Total set at 10 or higher. He faces a hot-hitting Angels team that is scoring 8.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .304 batting average along with a .381 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .932 over that span. The Over is 22-8-1 in Los Angeles’ last 31 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 17-5-4 in the Angels’ last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Over is 4-0-1 in LA’s last 5 games after a loss — and the Over is 5-2-2 in their last 9 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Angels have played 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games with the Total set at 10 or higher. Los Angeles has also played 6 straight games Over the Total in the fourth game of a series. They counter with Harvey who is 3-4 with a 6.88 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has made one start since his return from an extended stint on the disabled list with a back issue. Harvey has struggled at home where he has an 8.91 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .313 in seven starts. The Angels have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Harvey on the hill. He faces an Astros team that is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .287 batting average along with a .365 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .833 in those games. Houston has also played 4 straight road games Over the Total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Angles Stadium — and the Over is also 7-2-2 in their last 11 meetings between these two teams. 10* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (923) and the Los Angeles Angels (924) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Matt Harvey. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-18-19 |
Rays v. Yankees UNDER 10 |
|
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (925) and the New York Yankees (926) listing both starting pitchers Yonny Chirinos and Domingo German. THE SITUATION: This first game of today’s scheduled double-header is the same pitching matchup as was planned for yesterday game that was postponed due to weather. New York (60-33) has won two of their last three games with their 8-3 victory over the Rays in the second game of this series on Tuesday. Tampa Bay (56-41) had won three straight games before last night’s loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees clubbed two home runs en route to a six-run 8th inning to break open that game on Tuesday while ruining our Under that looked pretty good with the 3-2 score entering the bottom half of the 8th. New York had scored only 17 combined runs in their previous six games while not plating more than four runs in any of those games before Tuesday. The Yankees bullpen did not surrender an earned run in that game — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow at least one earned run. The Under is also 3-1-1 in New York’s last 5 games at home in Yankee Stadium — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against fellow AL East opponents. They give the ball to German who is 11-2 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in fourteen starts (fifteen games). The right-hander went on the disabled list with a hip injury but is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in his two starts since his return. German has been much better at home where he owns a 1.98 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in six starts (seven games) as opposed to his 4.53 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and .229 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Yankees have played 6 straight games Under the Total with German pitching at home. Tampa Bay did not commit an error for the third straight game — they have committed only two errors in their last ten games. The Rays have then played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after not committing an error for at least two straight games. Tampa Bay has also played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total as a road dog priced at least at +150. They counter with Chirinos who is 8-4 with a 3.11 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in nineteen appearances. The right-hander had been used as a bulk inning middle reliever — but his ability to throw strikes has elevated him to a regular starter in the Rays’ rotation. Chirinos is walking only 5.3% of the batters he faces which combined with Tampa Bay’s outstanding defense to help suppress base runners when he is on the mound. He has made nine straight starts for his team with a 3.04 ERA in those efforts. Chirinos has also been a bit better on the road where he owns a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in nine appearances as compared to his 0.98 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average at home. The Rays have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Chirinos on the hill. He faces this cold Yankee lineup that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .250 batting average along with a .321 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .769 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings between these two teams after Tuesday’s late Over result. Expect a return to a lower scoring game today — although I am downgrading yesterday’s 25* play to a 20* play given the sixteen-hour delay. 20* MLB Thursday Afternoon O/U Matinee with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (925) and the New York Yankees (926) listing both starting pitchers Yonny Chirinos and Domingo German. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-19 |
Storm v. Lynx UNDER 147.5 |
Top |
90-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Storm (627) and the Minnesota Lynx (628). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-8) has won two straight games after their 78-69 win over New York on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Minnesota (10-7) has won four of their last five games with their 75-62 victory over Phoenix as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Storm flexed their muscles on defense in that game as they held the Liberty to just a 36.8% shooting percentage in that win. That defensive effort might be a good sign for the reigning WNBA champions who will likely need to lean heavily on their work rate of that end of the court given the injuries this team has sustained. Last year’s Most Valuable Player, Breanna Stewart, is out the season with a torn Achilles — and Sue Bird is also is still out with a bad knee who contributed last year with a 40.8% assist percentage along with a 44.8% shooting mark from behind the arc. Seattle is also now without Jewell Loyd who has been their second-leading scorer this season. The Storm still has Natasha Howard to sore points but she is also one of the best defenders in the league while being the second-best shot-blocker in the WNBA last season. The Under is 13-2-2 in Seattle’s last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win at home. The Under is also 8-1-1 in the Storm’s last 10 games after a point spread loss. Seattle now goes on the road where they only make 40.2% of their shots — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set at 140 or higher. Additionally, the Storm have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games against fellow Western Conference rivals. Minnesota has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Lynx have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning at least three of their last four games. Minnesota made 42.7% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting mark in their last three games. That is well above their 41.6% shooting mark over their last five games — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in their last game. The Lynx have all tightened things up on defense as they have held their last five opponents to just 38.0% shooting from the field. Minnesota has also been ravaged with injuries and absences this year. Rebekkah Johnson is still recovering from post-concussion symptoms from last August while All-Star Seimone Augustus is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Additionally, Jessica Shepard and Karima Christmas-Kelly are both out for the season with injuries — and Damiris Dantas has missed the last few games with a calf injury. All these missing players make the decision by forward Maya Moore to take a personal sabbatical this season even more challenging for this franchise that has won four of the last seven WNBA titles. They stay at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when laying no more than 6 points. And in their last 29 games against Western Conference rivals, the Lynx have played 21 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the first meeting between these two teams back on June 4th where both teams scorched the nets in an 84-71 victory for Seattle. The Storm shot 59.3% from the field while making 7 of their 13 (53.8%) of their 3-point shots. Minnesota made 50.9% of their shots while nailing 8 of their 17 (47.1%) shots from downtown. Defense will be a priority for both teams in this rematch — and the Regression Gods have had this date (along with me) circled for weeks. 25* WNBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Storm (627) and the Minnesota Lynx (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-19 |
Rays v. Yankees UNDER 10 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (965) and the New York Yankees (966) listing both starting pitchers Yonny Chirinos and Domingo German. THE SITUATION: New York (60-33) has won two of their last three games with their 8-3 victory over the Rays in the second game of this series. Tampa Bay (56-41) had won three straight games before last night’s loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees clubbed two home runs en route to a six-run 8th inning to break open that game last night while ruining our Under that looked pretty good with the 3-2 score entering the bottom half of the 8th. New York had scored only 17 combined runs in their previous six games while not plating more than four runs in any of those games before last night. The Yankees bullpen did not surrender an earned run last night to help keep them in the game — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow at least one earned run. The Under is also 3-1-1 in New York’s last 5 games at home in Yankee Stadium — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against fellow AL East opponents. They give the ball to German who is 11-2 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in fourteen starts (fifteen games). The right-hander went on the disabled list with a hip injury but is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in his two starts since his return. German has been much better at home where he owns a 1.98 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in six starts (seven games) as opposed to his 4.53 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and .229 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Yankees have played 6 straight games Under the Total with German pitching at home. Tampa Bay did not commit an error for the third straight game — they have committed only two errors in their last ten games. The Rays have then played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after not committing an error for at least two straight games. Tampa Bay has also played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total as a road dog priced at least at +150. They counter with Chirinos who is 8-4 with a 3.11 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in nineteen appearances. The right-hander had been used as a bulk inning middle reliever — but his ability to throw strikes has elevated him to a regular starter in the Rays’ rotation. Chirinos is walking only 5.3% of the batters he faces which combined with Tampa Bay’s outstanding defense to help suppress base runners when he is on the mound. He has made nine straight starts for his team with a 3.04 ERA in those efforts. Chirinos has also been a bit better on the road where he owns a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in nine appearances as compared to his 0.98 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average at home. The Rays have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Chirinos on the hill. He faces this cold Yankee lineup that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .250 batting average along with a .321 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .769 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings between these two teams after last night’s late Over result. Expect a return to a lower scoring game today. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (965) and the New York Yankees (966) listing both starting pitchers Yonny Chirinos and Domingo German. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-19 |
Nigeria v. Tunisia OVER 2 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-125 |
11 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Nigeria (235601) and Tunisia (235602) in the Third Place consolation match in the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Nigeria (W4-D0-L2) lost a heartbreaker in the final play of the fifth minute of extra time after 90 minutes when Algeria’s Riyad Mahrez scored on a spectacular free-kick just outside the box to hand the Nigerians a 2-1 loss. Tunisia (W1-D4-L1) also lost a tough one when they scored an own goal in the 100th minute of the match that was still nil-nil after 90 minutes in a 1-0 loss to Senegal.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It is difficult to assess if Nigeria will be deflated after surrendering the game-winning goal in the final moments of their match with Algeria or if they will rally around each other to bounce-back to take solace in a potential bronze trophy with a victory. Either way, the Super Eagles look poised to either score goals or surrender goals. This is not a side that typically plays low-scoring matches. In their three matches since suffering a surprising 2-0 loss to Madagascar in their final Group Stage match, Nigeria has scored six times. The Super Eagles are loaded with speed, talent, and power at the forward position. But this team also tends to make mistakes in their backline. They have allowed five goals in their last three matches. Nigeria’s last three matches have seen at least three combined goals. Tunisia has seen at least two combined goals in four of their six matches in this tournament. That final score in their loss to Senegal is a bit deceiving since both teams missed penalty kicks — the final score of that Semifinals match could have easily been a 2-1 result. The Eagles of Carthage have scored six times in this event while allowing just four goals with manager Alain Giresse content to grind out lower scoring matches. This tempo may now change in this consolation match. Tunisia competed in last summer’s World Cup where they scored five times in three Group Stage matches while surrendering a whopping eight goals.
FINAL TAKE: With the combination of tired legs, a lack of urgency on defense, and the desire to play more aggressively with less on the line, expect a higher scoring match. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Nigeria (235601) and Tunisia (235602). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-16-19 |
Mets v. Twins UNDER 10.5 |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
102 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (913) and the New York Yankees (914) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Stanek and C.C. Sabathia. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (56-40) has won six of their last seven games after their 5-4 victory over the Yankees last night that was catapulted by a three-run homer in the top of the 9th inning. New York (59-33) has lost four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-1-1 in the Rays’ last 5 games after a win. Tampa Bay did not commit an error last night for their second straight game as well as the seventh time in their last nine contests — and they have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after not committing an error in the field in at least two straight games. The Under is also 18-7-2 in the Rays’ last 27 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They will be using Stanek as their opener tonight. While the right-hander has a 3.14 ERA along with a 1.12 WHIP in 51 2/3 innings of work — he has been outstanding in this opener role where he sports a 1.98 ERA in twenty-six official starts. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road with Stanek serving as the opener. Jalen Beeks will then come on to take on the bulk of the work tonight. The lefty has a 5-0 record with a 2.79 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP in 61 1/3 innings. Beeks has been more effective on the road where he owns a 1.78 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in 30 1/3 innings. Stanek and Beeks face a slumping Yankees lineup that has now failed to score more than four runs in six straight games. In fact, the Bronx Bombers have not scored nor allowed more than five runs in six straight contests — and they have then played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing at least four straight games after not scoring or allowing at least five runs. New York is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .260 batting average along with a .317 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .767. The Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Additionally, New York has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss. The Yankees have played six straight Unders — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing at least five straight Unders. The Under is also 3-0-1 in New York’s last 4 games at home — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Sabathia who is 5-4 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.34 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in seven starts. Sabathia has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with Sabathia facing a team with a winning record. This is the veteran’s first start since July 6th given the All-Star break — and New York has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total with Sabathia pitching with at least nine days of rest.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 22-7-2 in the Rays’ last 31 games on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. The Under is also 3-1-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (913) and the New York Yankees (914) listing both starting pitchers Ryan Stanek and C.C. Sabathia. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-14-19 |
Liberty v. Storm UNDER 155 |
Top |
69-78 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Liberty (621) and the Seattle Storm (622). THE SITUATION: New York (7-9) has lost two straight games after their 99-83 loss in Chicago on Friday as a 3.5-point underdog. Seattle (9-8) snapped a three-game losing streak on Friday with their 95-81 win at home over Dallas laying 5.5-points as the favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Liberty loss that game to Chicago primarily because of their lackluster effort on defense as they allowed the Sky to shoot 54.3% from the field. That was the worst defensive effort for New York this season. The Liberty have been playing better defense as of late — they have still held their last five opponents to just 41.8% shooting even after Friday’s performance. New York has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Liberty have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in their last game. Additionally, New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 14 games against Western Conference foes, the Liberty have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Seattle made 54.8% of their shots on Friday in their win which was the best shooting effort in their last sixteen contests. The Storm nailed 14 of their 23 shots from behind the arc for a red hot 54.8% 3-point shooting clip — but they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making at least nine 3-pointers in their last game. Seattle has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. Additionally, the Under is 12-2-2 in the Storm’s last 16 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Under is 15-5-1 in Seattle’s last 21 games when they are playing with one day of rest. And in their last 14 games against teams from the Eastern Conference, the Under is 9-4-1 for the Storm. Seattle remains without some of their scorers with Breanna Stewart and Sue Bird having not played this season given injuries — and their second-leading scorer this season in Jewell Loyd is also out with her ankle injury.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch from an 84-83 upset victory by the Liberty in Seattle where they were 7.5-point underdogs. New York made 49.3% of their shots which was well above the 41.1% shooting percentage for the season. After the Storm’s shaky defensive effort on Friday, tightening things up on that end of the court will be a priority for head coach Dan Hughes’ team. 25* WNBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Liberty (621) and the Seattle Storm (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-14-19 |
Tunisia v. Senegal UNDER 2 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Tunisia (235793) and Senegal (235794) in the Semifinals of the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Tunisia (W1-D4-L0) reached the Semifinals of this tournament on Thursday with their 3-0 victory over Madagascar. Senegal (W4-D0-L1) advanced to the Semifinals the day before with their 1-0 victory over Benin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tunisia doubled their scoring output in this event with those three goals on Thursday. The Eagles of Carthage had scored only three combined goals in their previous four games before seeing that offensive explosion. Frankly, they were able to take advantage of an overmatched Madagascar side that had been the surprise of the tournament but whose bubble was ready to be burst after defeating a Nigeria side in the Group Stage that was resting key players before sneaking past an underperforming Congo DR team via Penalty Kicks in the Round of Sixteen. Tunisia had not seen more than two combined goals in their first four matches that all ended in draws. This is a team that is quite content to grind out a low scoring match led by an experienced group of defenders that competed in last summer’s World Cup. The Eagles of Carthage have surrendered only three goals in their five matches in this tournament. Senegal has conceded only once in their five tournament matches in what was a 1-0 loss to Algeria in the Group Stage. That contest between two sides that are now in the Semifinals may have been a precursor as to how this contest will play out. The Lions of Teranga probably have the best player left in this tournament (with Egypt’s Mo Salah eliminated) in Sadio Mane. Senegal is happy to play very cautiously with a defensive mindset with the confidence that the Liverpool star will find scoring opportunities in the counterattack. The Lions of Teranga have scored only seven times in their five matches.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a low scoring match with the worst-case scenario likely being two combined goals scored in the first 90 minutes of regulation time. A 1-0 score — or even a nil-nil result after the first 90 minutes looks to be a more likely outcome. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Tunisia (235793) and Senegal (235794). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-13-19 |
Giants v. Brewers OVER 9 |
|
4-5 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
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At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Milwaukee Brewers (962) listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Zach Davies. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (42-48) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 10-7 victory last night in the opening game of this series. Milwaukee (47-45) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four contests. Additionally, San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. And while the Giants’ bullpen has pitched 14 combined innings over the last three games, they have then played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 13 combined innings over their salt three games. San Francisco has also played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Bumgarner who is 5-7 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in nineteen starts. The left-hander does his best pitching at home in the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park where he has a 3.62 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and .245 opponent’s batting average — but those numbers rise to a 4.60 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and .277 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. The Over is 7-1-1 in the Giants’ last 9 road games with Bumgarner facing a team with a winning record. San Francisco has also played 6 of their last 8 games with Bumgarner facing the Brewers. Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing four of their last five games. The Brewers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game —and the Over is 14-6-1 in their last 21 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Milwaukee has played 11 of their last 17 games at home Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Davies who is 7-2 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.28 and 5.00 moving forward. Davies has never been much of a strikeout artist — he is striking out only 15.4% of the batters he is facing while possessing a low 2.1 Strikeout-to-Walk ratio. The right-hander has a hard-hit rate of 35.4% of the batted balls he is allowing into play with 24.7% of these being line drives. Those are ominous numbers for a pitcher who allows so many balls into play. Davies has not been as effective at home where he has a 3.51 ERA along with a 1.39 WHIP in eight starts. Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with Davies on the hill with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: Davies faces a Giants team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .278 batting average along with a .323 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .879 over that span. 10* MLB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (961) and the Milwaukee Brewers (962) listing both starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Zach Davies. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-11-19 |
Astros v. Rangers OVER 11 |
|
0-5 |
Loss |
-111 |
18 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (951) and the Texas Rangers (952) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Lance Lynn. THE SITUATION: Houston (57-33) went into the All-Star Break having won two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests with their 11-10 victory over the Angels Sunday. Texas (48-42) has lost six of their last eight games but they did go into the break with a 4-1 win at Minnesota on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Astros have seen the Over go 7-3-2 in their last 12 games after a win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a game where at least 20 combined runs were scored. The Over is also 3-1-1 in Houston’s last five games after an off day. The Astros now go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 40 of their last 59 road games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games against fellow AL West competition. Houston has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the number set at 10 or higher. They have called up Valdez from Triple-A to make the start as he pitches on regular rest after pitching three innings for their farm team in Round Rock. The left-hander was sent down to the minors after two disastrous starts to end the month of June where he failed to get out of the 4th inning either time while surrendering eleven earned runs for a 15.64 ERA along with a 2.54 WHIP in those 6 1/3 combined innings. For the season, Valdez has a 3-4 record with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 45 1/3 innings — but he sees his ERA rise to a 5.09 mark along with a 1.58 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings on the road. Valdez has also preferred pitching during the day — in his 24 innings under the lights this year, he has a 6.38 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .272. Houston has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Valdez pitching at night. He faces a Rangers team that bashes the ball at home by averaging 5.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .262 batting average along with a .331 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .801. Texas has played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games — and the Over is also 22-8-1 in their last 31 games after an off day. The Rangers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Texas returns home to Global Life Ballpark where they have played 35 of their last 54 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 10 to 10.5 range. They counter with Lynn who is 11-4 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has preferred pitching on the road where he has a 3.45 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in nine starts — but those numbers rise to a 4.37 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and .275 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. Lynn’s teams have played 9 of their last 15 games Over the Total when he is pitching with the Total set at 10 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Lynn faces a potent Astros lineup that was swinging hots bats going into the break. Over their last seven games, Houston was scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .295 batting average along with a .368 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .858 over that span. Expect a high scoring game in the summer heat in the heart of Texas. 10* MLB Houston-Texas ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (951) and the Texas Rangers (952) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-11-19 |
Tunisia v. Madagascar UNDER 2 |
Top |
3-0 |
Loss |
-131 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Madagascar (235789) and Tunisia (235790) in the Quarterfinals of the Africa Cup of Nations. THE SITUATION: Madagascar (W2-D2-L0) reached the Quarterfinals on Sunday after defeating the Congo DR via Penalty Kicks by a 4-2 score after that match ended in a 2-2 deadlock after 120 minutes. Tunisia (W0-D4-L0) also advanced from the Round of 16 via Penalty Kicks by a 5-4 margin after their match with Ghana remained unresolved by a 1-1 score on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Madagascar has been the story of this tournament with the debutants pulling off upset wins over both the Congo DR and Nigeria in the Group Stage. Producing a clean sheet against the Super Eagles was impressive — and they also registered a shutout against Burundi. Madagascar has deployed a daring style of play in this tournament that has surprised their opponents — but they may tighten up now with the prospects of reaching the Semifinals. This remains a side that lacks difference makers so they may struggle to score as they did against lowly Burundi where they scored just once. They face a Tunisia side that is quite content to see this match resolved via penalty kicks. The Eagles of Carthage have not seen more than two combined goals scored in all four of their matches in this tournament. Tunisia has not produced a victory within 120 minutes of all four of their matches. They have scored only three goals in this event — but they have allowed only three goals as well. The Eagles of Carthage were close to registering a clean sheet on Monday before Ghana scored in the first minute of extra time of regulation to force an additional 30 minutes of play.
FINAL TAKE: Twelve of the seventeen combined goals scored in then matches these two teams have played in this tournament have come in the second half. With it being very possible that this match will remain scoreless going into the second half, expect a very low scoring result after the first 90 minutes. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Madagascar (235789) and Tunisia (235790). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-07-19 |
United States v. Mexico OVER 2 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-124 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the United States (234225) and Mexico (234226) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: The USMNT (W5-D0-L0) remained unbeaten in the 2019 Gold Cup after they defeated Jamaica in the Semifinals of this tournament by a 3-1 score. Mexico (W4-D1-L0) made it to the championship of this event when they defeated Haiti on Tuesday by a 1-0 score. This match is being played in Chicago’s Soldier Field.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The United States had not conceded a goal in this tournament before the Reggae Boyz broke that seal in the 69th minute of that match. Jamaica is a defensive-oriented team who had to push their aggressiveness after falling behind by a 2-0 score. The Stars and Stripes have played a group of teams in this tournament who tend to play back to defend which choosing their battles with counter attacks. This will be the most aggressive opponent they will have faced in this event against this Mexico team that likes to play on their front foot. Rookie manager Gregg Berhalter has this team playing more ambitiously as well by implementing a counter pressing attack. This is a formula for higher scoring matches when facing the more talented and offensively oriented teams in the world. The US backline was demonstrating some vulnerabilities in their friendlies in preparation for this tournament — especially in a 3-0 loss to Venezuela on June 9th. But what has been the most impressive development for this team has been the emerging chemistry between their two young stars Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie. Both players scored on Wednesday with Pulisi scoring the final two goals for the US in that match in their victory over Jamaica. They have combined to score five of the Stars and Stripes fifteen goals. They will likely be joined by veteran forward Jozy Altidore who started in the match against Jamaica after beginning this tournament on the bench. Altidore had 42 goals for the USMNT. Mexico has also scored fifteen goals in their five matches. Yet El Tri has scored only one goal in the first 90 minutes of their last two matches. Much of the reason for that is that Haiti and Costa Rica in the quarterfinals were content on playing lower scoring matches. Mexico allowed seven goals in their four World Cup matches last summer so they have shown themselves vulnerable to opponents that play aggressively.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams should score in this match — and I expect at least three combined goals to be scored in the first 90 minutes with both of these teams likely to push the pace of play. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between the United States (234225) and Mexico (234226). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-07-19 |
Yankees v. Rays OVER 7.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Tampa Bay Rays (968) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Charlie Morton. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (51-39) has won five of their last eight games after they defeated the Yankees in the third game of this series yesterday by a 4-3 score. New York (57-30) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in the loss on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss. They close out the first half of the regular season with the Over going a decisive 36-13-2 in their last 51 games on the road — and the Over is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Bronx Bombers have played 15 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when priced in the +125 to -125 price range. Additionally, New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games played in the day Over the Total. They give the ball to Paxton who is 5-3 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has seen his productivity decline this year. His bases-on-balls are up — he is walking 9.9% of the batters he is facing as compared to his 6.5% walk rate last season. And his strikeouts are down — he is punching out 27.6% of the batters he has faced as compared to his elite 32.3% strikeout rate last season. Paxton has also struggled on the road where his ERA rise to a 5.12 mark along with a 1.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .320 in six starts. The Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with Paxton on the hill. He faces a Rays team that is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay has seen their bullpen blow saves in the last two games of this series — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after suffering two blown saves in a row. The Rays’ bullpen has a 6.82 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP over their last seven games. Tampa Bay has also played 21 of their last 31 home games Over the Total after playing a fellow AL East rival in their last three games. And the Over is 7-1-2 in the Rays’ last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Morton who is 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics predict regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.51 and 3.22 moving forward given his peripheral numbers. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 2.94 mark. The Rays have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Morton facing a team with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Morton pitching with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. He faces a hot-hitting Yankees team that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .293 batting average along with a .369 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .892 over that span. The Over is 35-12-2 in New York’s last 49 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers overall. The Yankees have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams when playing on the artificial turf featured at Tropicana Field. Despite the profile of these two starting pitchers, expect a higher scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break TBS-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (967) and the Tampa Bay Rays (968) listing both starting pitchers James Paxton and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-19 |
Indians v. Reds UNDER 9 |
|
11-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (975) and the Cincinnati Reds (976) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Tyler Mahle. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (49-38) has won five games in a row after their 7-2 victory over the Reds yesterday. Cincinnati (41-45) had won three games in a row before that setback.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 5-1-1 in the Indians’ last 7 games after a win. Shane Bieber pitched eight innings yesterday allowing the two runs before the Cleveland bullpen closed things out in the 9th — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow more than one run. The Indians have now played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 range — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games in Interleague play. Furthermore, Cleveland has played 29 of their last 48 games Under the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They give the ball to Bauer who is 7-6 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in nineteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.56 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in nine starts. The Under is a decisive 46-12-8 in the Indians’ last 66 games on the road with Bauer on the hill. Bauer also thrives in day games where he enjoys a 1.74 ERA with a 0.75 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of just .162. He faces a Reds team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. The Under is also 16-5-1 in Cincinnati’s last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Furthermore, the Under is 38-17-1 in the Reds’ last 56 games after a loss. The Under is also 12-3-1 in Cincinnati’s last 16 games at home — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Mahle who is 2-8 with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in sixteen starts. The sabermetrics for the right-hander are encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.96 and 3.82 moving forward. Male has also been more effective at home where he owns a 3.24 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .185 in six starts.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 5-2-1 in the Reds’ last 8 games with Mahle facing a team with a winning record. Expect a lower scoring game in this afternoon tilt. 10* MLB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (975) and the Cincinnati Reds (976) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Tyler Mahle. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-07-19 |
Netherlands (W) v. USA (W) OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-103 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225913) and the United States (225914). THE SITUATION: The Netherlands (W6-D0-L0) reached the Finals of the Women’s World Cup with their 1-0 victory over Sweden on Wednesday. The United States (W6-D0-L0) advanced to this championship match on Tuesday with their 2-1 victory over England.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: When Christen Press scored her header in the 10th minute of that match with England, it was the sixth straight time that the United States scored the opening goal in the first ten minutes of the match. Putting their opponents on the back foot changes the tempo of the match since the other team has to play more aggressively with their need to score to tie the match. Both teams have scored in all three of the Stars and Stripes matches in the Knockout Stage of this tournament. All three of those matches also saw at least three combined goals scored. The Americans have scored at least twice in all six of their matches in this tournament — and they are one goal away from tying the World Cup record of 25 goals in one event. The Netherlands had scored in eight of their previous ten matches in the second half before their match with Sweden needed extra time after the nil-nil score after 90 minutes. The Orange Lionesses have a powerful front-three attack with Lieke Martens, Shanice van de Sandeen, and Vivianne Miedema — and they also have a super sub at forward in Lineth Beerensteyn. Defense was considered the weak link for this team but they have been able to embrace defensive tactics in this tournament by always being the first to score and never trailing in any of their six matches.
FINAL TAKE: The Netherlands enter this match on a 257 minute shutout streak — but that dynamic changes if they find themselves trailing for the first time in this tournament. The Dutch scored nine goals in their three Knockout Stage matches to win the 2017 Euro Championship. Expect a higher scoring match. 25* Women’s World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225913) and the United States (225914). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-19 |
Red Sox v. Tigers OVER 11 |
Top |
10-6 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 4:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (919) and the Detroit Tigers (920) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmermann. THE SITUATION: Boston (47-41) has won two straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 9-6 score. Detroit (28-55) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 6-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They give the ball to Porcello who is 5-7 with a 5.07 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander suffered through a terrible June where he had a 6.46 ERA. Over his last two starts which includes his disastrous 1/3 inning of work in London against the Yankees last Saturday, Porcello has a 15.71 ERA along with a 2.77 WHIP in 6 1/3 innings of work. Perhaps the warning signs regarding regression for the 30-year old were in the second half of last season where he had an ERA of 4.54. Gopher balls have always been a problem for Porcello. He allowed 1.27 home runs per 9 innings last year — and this year he is allowing 1.24 homers per 9 innings. But while Porcello struck out 8.9 batters per 9 innings last year, that number has dropped to 7.28 strikeouts per 9 innings. Porcello struck out 23.5% of the batters he faced last year but that number has dropped to 18.3% this season. Porcello has also seen his walk rate rise from 5.9% of the batters he faced last year to 7.2% of the batters he has faced this season. Overall, his K%-BB% mark of 11.1% is his lowest in a Red Sox uniform and a far cry from his career high mark of 17.6% from last year. Porcello has particularly struggled on the road (and his disaster in London was officially listed as a home game) where he has a 5.15 ERA along with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .289 in seven starts. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Porcello on the mound — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total with Porcello facing a team with a losing record. Porcello also struggles in day games where his ERA rises to a 6.23 mark along with a 1.68 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .296. He faces a Tigers team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games (as compared to their 3.6 Runs-Per-Game scoring average) along with an improved .257 batting average along with a .311 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .718 over that span. Detroit has played 4 straight Overs this month — and the Over is also 10-3-2 in their last 15 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Zimmermann who is 0-5 with a 5.36 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has not been as effective when pitching at home in Comerica Park where his ERA rises to a 5.40 mark along with a 1.48 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .277 in four starts this season which included a long stint on the disabled list. Zimmermann does come off a nice performance where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work against Washington — but the Tigers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Zimmermann following up a Quality Start. Detroit has also played 17 of their last 24 day games Over the Total with Zimmermann on the mound. He faces a red-hot Red Sox team that is scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .338 batting average along with a .383 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .965 during that span.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. These two teams have now played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (919) and the Detroit Tigers (920) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmermann. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-19 |
Sweden (W) v. England (W) UNDER 2.75 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-61.5 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Sweden (225909) and England in the Third Place match of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Sweden (W4-D0-L2) lost their Semifinals match with the Netherlands on Wednesday by a 1-0 score that required an additional 30 minutes of extra time to resolve after being scoreless after the first 90 minutes. England (W5-D0-L1) looks to bounce-back from their 2-1 loss to the United States on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Sweden faces a fatigue issue having played 120 minutes on Wednesday and now facing an England side who had one extra day of rest for this match. Look for manager Peter Gerhardsson to rotate a few of his starting XI to get some fresh legs on to the pitch. The Blue and Yellow are likely to play this match with even more caution given this potential disadvantage. As it is, the Sweden team is quite content to grind out low scoring matches. They have allowed only five goals in their six matches in this tournament — with two of those goals being scored by the United States. The Blue and Yellow have scored just ten times in those six matches as well — and five of those goals came against a Thailand team that surrendered 13 goals to the United States. The Swedes are at their best when they are implementing a conservative counter-attacking scheme while playing very compact. England has only allowed three goals in their six matches in this tournament with two of those goals being in their game with the US on Tuesday. The Three Lionesses only conceded one goal in their nine matches in the World Cup qualifying matches as well. Their backline is led by Lucy Bronze who is probably the best right fullback in women’s soccer.
FINAL TAKE: Look for Sweden’s defensive-approach dictate the tempt of this match. Don’t expect more than two combined goals to be scored in the first 90 minutes of this match. 10* Women’s World Cup Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Sweden (225909) and England in the Third Place match of the Women’s World Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-19 |
Senegal v. Uganda UNDER 2 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Senegal (235749) and Uganda (235750) in the Round of 16 of the Africa Cup of Nations. Senegal (2W-0D-1L) reached the Knockout Stage of the African Nations Cup with their 3-0 victory over Kenya on Monday. Uganda (1W-1D-1L) comes off a 2-0 loss to Egypt in their last Group Stage match on Sunday but still qualified as one of the sixteen teams in this tournament on the basis of accruing 4 points.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Senegal has sixteen players from the group that was 1W-1D-1L in last summer’s World Cup. They are led by Sadio Mane who stars for Liverpool in the English Premier League — but this is a defensive-minded group. The Lions of Teranga have registered six clean sheets in their last eight matches. Their defensive efforts are led by 6’5 Kalidou Koulibaly who anchors their backline. Senegal has allowed only one goal in this tournament. But they had scored only two goals in their first two matches before scoring three times in their last match against an overmatched Kenya side. With their top goalkeeper, Eduard Mendy, out with an injury, the Lions of Teranga will probably play even more cautiously as to not risk overwhelming their backup keeper. They will not face an explosive offensive attack from this Uganda team that has scored only three times in this tournament. The Cranes have been left scoreless in four of their last eight matches overall. This is the second straight African Cup for Uganda — and this is the first time they have reached the Knockout Stage since 1978. But this group is a bit distracted with the players refusing to train on Wednesday as a protest for unpaid bonuses they earned when they defeated the Democratic Republic of Congo in their opening match of this tournament. The Cranes best player may be their goalkeeper, Denis Onyango, who is one of the best keepers in the continent. Uganda has allowed only three goals in their three Afcon matches.
FINAL TAKE: Uganda has seen two combined goals scored in all three of their Group Stage matches — and their previous three matches before this tournament did not produce more than two combined goals. Senegal has only had one of their matches see more than two combined goals in this tournament — and only one of their four prior matches in 2019 generated more than two combined goals. I suspect Uganda fails to score in this match with the very high probability that no more than two combined goals being scored — making a push (at 2.0) the likely worst-case scenario. 25* Africa Cup of Nations Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Senegal (235749) and Uganda (235750). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-19 |
Phillies v. Braves OVER 10.5 |
Top |
6-12 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Zach Elfin and Mike Soroka. Atlanta (51-36) snapped their two-game losing streak yesterday with their 9-2 win over the Phillies. Philadelphia (45-41) has lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a victory by at least six runs — and they have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Over is 14-5-1 in Atlanta’s last 20 games are scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Braves have been an offensive juggernaut when playing at home in SunTrust Park where they are scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game with a .276 batting average along with a .348 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .840. The Over is 15-5-1 in Atlanta’s last 21 games at home — and the Over is also 11-3-1 in their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Soroka who is 9-1 with a 2.13 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in fourteen starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression for the rookie right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.04 and 3.75 respectively moving forward given his peripheral numbers. Soroka has not been as effective at home where he owns a 3.28 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in six home starts as compared to his 1.29 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and .171 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 4-1-1 in Soroka’s last 6 starts — and the Braves have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Soroka facing a fellow NL East opponent. He faces a Phillies team that has seen the Over go 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while the first two games of this series have finished Under the Total, the Phillies have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. They give the ball to Eflin who is 7-7 with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in sixteen starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression — and this may be well underway already — with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.64 and 4.75 moving forward. Elfin had a 4.02 ERA in his last five starts in the month of June — and he has surrendered 19 base hits in his last two starts spanning only 11 innings. Eflin has not been as effective on the road where he has an ERA of 3.62 along with a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in nine starts. The Over is 3-1-1 in Philadelphia’s last 5 road games with Eflin facing a team with a winning record — and Philly has played 11 of their last 14 Over the Total on the road as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range with Eflin on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 11-2-1 in Atlanta’s last 14 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Expect a high scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (907) and the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Zach Elfin and Mike Soroka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-19 |
Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9.5 |
|
11-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (905) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Jordan Lyles. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (42-43) has won the first three games of this series — as well as six of their last eight games — with their 6-5 victory over the Cubs yesterday. Chicago (45-42) has lost four straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have seen the Over go 24-9-2 in their last 35 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Pittsburgh has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Over is 19-5-2 in the Pirates’ last 26 games at home — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when playing at home as an underdog. They give the ball to Lyles who is 5-4 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in thirteen starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.40 and 4.20 moving forward based off his peripheral numbers. Lyles has not been as effective at home where he owns a 3.93 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in seven starts. Lyles struggles in day games as well where he has a 4.94 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP. Pittsburgh has played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total with Lyles pitching with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing three straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when losing three straight games against a fellow NL Central rival. The Cubs have also played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less. This is Chicago’s seventh straight game on the road — and they have played 37 of their last 59 games Over the Total when playing at least their fourth game on the road. Furthermore, the Cubs have played 11 of their last 17 road games Over the Total when favored at least with a -110 price — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They counter with Quintana who is 5-7 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in sixteen starts. The left-hander comes off a strong outing where he did not allow an earned run in Cincinnati — but the sabermetrics remain unconvinced. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.68 and 4.38 moving forward. The biggest issue for the veteran is his declining velocity — his fastball is topping out at 91.7 MPH which is his lowest since his rookie season. Quintana struck out only four Reds’ batters in his last start which was the twelfth time he has failed to punch out more than six batters. Quintana has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.26 ERA with a troubling 1.49 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .283 in eight starts. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with Quintana pitching with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. Quintana also struggles in day games where his ERA rises to a 5.36 mark along with a 1.41 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .294 in seven stats.
FINAL TAKE: The Pirates are hitting the ball right now as they are averaging 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .316 batting average along with a .355 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .933 during that span. The Over is 6-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is also 15-6-1 in their last 22 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (905) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Jordan Lyles. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-19 |
Sweden (W) v. Netherlands (W) UNDER 2.25 |
|
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Sweden (225905) and the Netherlands (225906) in the Semifinals of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Sweden (4W-0D-1L) looks to build off their 2-1 win over Germany last Saturday in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. The Netherlands (5W-0D-0L) reached the Semifinals on Saturday as well with their 2-0 victory over Italy.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Sweden displayed grit and resolve by allowing the Germans to take a 1-0 lead in the 16th minute of the match but leveling the score at 1-1 just six minutes later. The Blue and Yellow then seized the 2-1 lead in the third minute of the second half. The Swedes flexed their muscles on defense by not allowing the Germans to score a tying goal for the remaining time in the second half consisting of more than 40 minutes. The Swedes are stout defensively as they have surrendered only four goals in this tournament with three of them coming against the US and Germany. But while the Blue and Yellow have scored ten times in their five matches in this tournament, five of those goals came against a minnow in Thailand who also surrendered thirteen goals to the United States. Sweden has scored only five goals in their remaining four matches. The Netherlands earned their second clean sheet in this tournament with their Quarterfinals win over Italy. The Dutch have allowed only three goals in this event. The Orange Lionesses also generated three clean sheets in their final three friendlies leading up to this tournament. While the Netherlands entered the World Cup with the reputation of being a high scoring team, they have scored more than two goals just once in their five matches with manager Sarina Wiegman shifting her team’s tactics to more defensive in nature.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in the Quarterfinals of the 2017 Euro with the Dutch winning by a 2-0 score. Expect another low scoring match with no more than two combined goals scored in the 90 minutes of regulation time. 10* Women’s World Cup Netherlands-Sweden FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between Sweden (225905) and the Netherlands (225906) in the Semifinals of the Women’s World Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-19 |
Liberty v. Storm UNDER 152.5 |
|
84-83 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Liberty (633) and the Seattle Storm (634). THE SITUATION: New York (5-7) has won two straight games after their upset 74-58 victory in Atlanta on Sunday as a 4.5-point underdog. Seattle (8-6) has lost two of their last three games with their 69-67 upset loss at home to Phoenix as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Liberty played their best defensive game of the season by holding Atlanta to just 27.1% shooting from the field. New York has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing their last opponent to shoot better than 30% from the field. Additionally, the Under is 14-5-1 in the Liberty’s last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after registering an upset victory. Furthermore, New York has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents. Seattle shot 41.5% from the field in their loss which also happened to be the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Under is 8-3-1 in the Storm’s last 12 games after a point spread loss. Seattle stays at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. The Storm have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 12 games against Eastern Conference foes, the Under is 8-3-1.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing in Seattle. Expect another lower scoring game this afternoon. 10* WNBA Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Liberty (633) and the Seattle Storm (634). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-19 |
Mexico v. Haiti OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Mexico (234217) and Haiti (234218) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (3W-1D-0L) survived their Quarterfinals match with Costa Rica on Saturday by winning via a shootout by a 5-4 margin after that game ended with a 1-1 score after 120 minutes of play. Haiti (4W-0D-0L) reached the Semifinals earlier on Sunday with their 3-2 upset win over Canada. This match will be played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Haiti has fully embraced the role of the Cardiac Kids in this tournament with three of their four victories occurring after initializing allowing the first goal in that game. Les Grenadiers rallied from 1-0 deficits to defeat both Bermuda and Costa Rica by 2-1 scores in the Group Stage. Those results gave this team confidence even when they went into halftime trailing by a 2-0 score to Canada in the Quarterfinals. Haiti kept to their game plan on relying on counter-attacks — and they scored three times in the second half to steal that match from the Canadians. With an average age of just over 24-years of age, this is the youngest team in this tournament. But they are also surging with confidence. They are unlikely to secure a clean sheet in this match. However, this Haiti team will keep on attacking even if they fall behind. They have scored nine times in their four matches despite having an average possession of the ball for just 38.1% of the time in these contests. Counter-attacking sides have often been the Achilles’ heel of the Mexican national team. El Tri has surrendered at least one goal in three of their four matches in this event. Their nervy Quarterfinals match with an angry Costa Rica side motivated to redeem themselves from blowing their 1-0 lead against Haiti was the first time in eight matches under new manager Tito Martino where they did not score at least three goals. Mexico has scored fourteen goals in this tournament. They did not lack for pressure against Costa Rica as they had 22 shots attempts in that match.
FINAL TAKE: With the quick turnaround for this Semifinals match, legs may be tired for both sides. That should help the offenses for each respective team. I expect to see both teams score in the first 90 minutes of this match with at least one of these teams scoring twice over that span. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Mexico (234217) and Haiti (234218) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-19 |
Giants v. Padres OVER 8.5 |
|
10-4 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Beede and Matt Strahm. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (36-47) has won two straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 13-2 score. San Diego (42-41) has lost two straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-2-2 in the Giants’ last 9 games after a win — and the Over is 5-1-1 in San Francisco’s last 7 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, the Giants have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. San Fran has also played 18 of their last 26 road games Over the Total when playing at night. They give the ball to Beede who is 1-3 with a 6.45 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP in nine appearances which include seven starts. The right-hander has really struggled on the road where he owns a 7.11 ERA with a 1.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in five starts (six appearances). The Giants have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Beede on the mound pitching as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. He faces a hot-hitting Padres team that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .273 batting average along with a .340 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .872 over that span. The Over is 4-1-2 in San Diego’s last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 3-1-3 in their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Padres have seen the Over go 10-2-4 in their last 16 games are a loss — and the Over is 10-4-3 in their last 17 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-1 in San Diego’s last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Strahm who is 3-6 with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where his ERA rises to a 5.85 mark in six starts. The Padres have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Strahm on the mound. He faces a Giants team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting .279 over that span with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .844.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Expect another high-scoring game between these two National League West opponents. 10* MLB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total the San Francisco Giants (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Beede and Matt Strahm. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-19 |
Argentina v. Brazil UNDER 2.25 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
50 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Semifinals of the Copa America in the match between Argentina (234489) and Brazil (234490). THE SITUATION: Argentina (2W-1D-1L) reached the Semifinals of the Copa America with their 2-0 win over Venezuela on Friday. Brazil (2W-2D-0L) joined them in the Semifinals later that day with their 0-0 draw with Paraguay which they survived by winning the shootout by a 4-3 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Argentina is a work in progress as their national program rebuilds from their disappointing World Cup last summer where they lost in the Round of 16 to France. Manager Lionel Scaloni has tried to have his team play more pragmatically since that tournament. La Albiceleste is playing better defense as this event moves forward as they have registered two straight clean sheets. But they have only scored five goals in their four matches despite having Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero on the pitch. They will be playing a Brazil team that has yet to concede a goal in this tournament. But the Selecao has struggled in three of their four matches which have resulted in their fans jeering them for underachieving. Brazil has not scored a goal in two of their four matches against Venezuela in their second Group Stage match and then against Paraguay last Friday night. This team has often played with nervous energy in front of their home fans as the host nation. They are a bit undermanned with Richarlison unavailable for them in the midfield as he deals with a case of the mumps. The Selecao did not score a goal against Paraguay despite having a man advantage on the pitch after a red card gave them an 11 to 10 man advantage in the 58th minute of that match. Yet Brazil could not muster even one goal with the man advantage for those remaining 32 minutes.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are searching for confidence right now. Argentina has never won an international title in the Messi era. After losing in the 2014 World Cup Finals to Germany, La Albiceleste has been a national program in decline. Brazil lost to the Germans by a 7-1 score in the Semifinals of that World Cup in the Estadio Mineiro that will host this match. Since that match, the Brazilian fans have had little patience for their team. This shapes up to be a low scoring match where neither team takes too many chances in the hopes that their talent will make the difference late in the match. 25* Copa America Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Semifinals of the Copa America in the match between Argentina (234489) and Brazil (234490). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-19 |
Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 |
Top |
10-6 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the Toronto Blue Jays (914) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Trent Thornton. THE SITUATION: Boston (44-40) returns stateside after getting swept in their two-game series in London against the Yankees where they followed up a 17-13 loss on Saturday with a 12-8 loss on Sunday. Toronto (32-53) has won three of their last four games with their 11-4 win over Kansas City yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, Boston has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least 10 runs in their last game to a fellow AL East rival — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after surrendering at least 10 runs in two straight games. Furthermore, while the Red Sox bullpen surrendered ten runs on Sunday, they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen gave up at least four runs. The Over is also a decisive 41-16-2 in Boston’s last 59 games after an off day. They stay on the road where the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games at home. They have also played 28 of their last 43 games when priced at -150 or higher. They give the ball to Price who is 5-2 with a 3.36 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.06 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in six starts — but those numbers climb to a 3.60 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 on the road. And while Price comes off a solid outing where he allowed only two earned runs in 6 innings of work at home against the White Sox, the Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Price looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Blue Jays team that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .307 batting average along with a .365 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .930 over that span — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Toronto has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Blue Jays stay at home where the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games — and the Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record. Toronto has also played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Thornton who is 2-5 with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in seventeen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective a home where his ERA rises to a 6.39 mark with a 1.58 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .272 in seven starts. The Blue Jays have played 4 straight games Over the Total at home with Thornton on the hill — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total at home with Thornton facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .328 batting average along with a .382 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .924 in those games. Boston has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between two teams when playing in Toronto. 20* MLB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the Toronto Blue Jays (914) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Trent Thornton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-19 |
USA (W) v. England (W) UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Semifinals of the Women’s World Cup between the United States (225901) and England (225902). THE SITUATION: The USWNT (5W-0D-0L) defeated France by a 2-1 score on Friday in that Quarterfinals showdown. England (5-0-0) reached the Semifinals on Thursday when they defeated Norway by a 3-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England entered that match with Norway with two significant doubts on their backline with Steph Houghton dealing with an ankle injury and Millie Bright ill with a virus that spread through the team. Both central defenders ended up playing and played important roles in the clean sheet. With five days of rest and recuperation since that match, both defenders should be closer to full strength for this showdown. The Three Lionesses defense has been outstanding in this tournament as they have conceded only one goal in their opening match against Scotland. England is led by Lucy Bronze who is probably the best right back in the world of women’s soccer. She will be assigned to slow down Megan Rapinoe in this match — and she will have an advantage of being very familiar with the pitch with this being played in Lyon where she plays professionally. The Three Lionesses have scored eleven goals in their five matches which is a healthy amount — but after scoring only five goals in their three Group Stage matches, this team may be prepared to grind out a low scoring match with the Americans. Team USA has been spectacular on defense in this tournament as they have also only surrendered two goals. A question mark for this group entering this event regarded how Crystal Dunn would play at left back since this put the attacker out of position in playing on the backline. Dunn has steadily improved and rewarded manager Jill Ellis’ choice to put her on the pitch in the Starting XI as she played her best game in this World Cup. The Stars and Stripes did not allow a shot on target in the first half by the French. And they held Les Bleus to only one goal despite allowing them to have possession for 61% of that match. On paper, the USA looks like an offensive juggernaut with its whopping 22 goals in this tournament. But after their 13-0 win over Thailand to begin this tournament, they have scored only nine goals in their last four matches which is much closer to England’s more modest scoring efficiency. This US team has become more defensive oriented when Ellis moved Julie Ertz from the backline to the middle as a holding midfielder.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in the She Believes Cup back on March 2nd which resulted in a 2-2 draw. I expect this rematch with the stakes much higher to be a defensive struggle with both teams being careful to not allow their opponents to seize scoring chances. 25* Women’s World Cup Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Semifinals of the Women’s World Cup between the United States (225901) and England (225902). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-19 |
Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9.5 |
Top |
5-18 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (951) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) listing both starting pitchers Adbert Alzaolay and Trevor Williams. THE SITUATION: Chicago (45-39) has lost four of their last six games after their 8-6 loss in Cincinnati yesterday. Pittsburgh (39-43) has lost two in a row after their 2-1 loss in Milwaukee yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less in their last game. Chicago has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when facing an opponent that did not score more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Cubs have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 22 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They give the ball to Alzolay who is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in his 8 2/3 innings of pitching this year after being called up from Triple-A. Obviously, we are dealing with a very small sample size — but there are some things to be worried about with the rookie. First, Alzolay has already issued six bases-on-balls in those 8 1/3 innings of work. Second, this will be his first time pitching in a hostile ballpark in his career at the major league level. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.30 and 5.44 based on his peripheral numbers — so I do not put much stock in his current ERA. Alzolay faces a hot-hitting Pirates team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .298 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .849 over that span. The Over is 15-5-1 in the Pirates’ last 21 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 9-3-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 13 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Pirates have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 18 of their last 24 games at home Over the Total after a loss by just one run. Additionally, the Over is 7-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 9 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Pirates have only scored two runs in their last three games — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in two straight contests. Pittsburgh returns home here the Over is 19-6-2 in their last 27 games. Additionally, the Pirates have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total with the number set in the 9 to 9.5 range — and they have played 13 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They counter with Williams who is 2-2 with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has struggled with a 6.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .283 opponent’s batting average in four starts. Pittsburgh has played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total with Williams pitching at home. He faces a Cubs’ team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The last meeting between these two teams ended with the Cubs pulling a 2-0 loss in Wrigley Field back on April 11th. The Pirates have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than one run. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (951) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (952) listing both starting pitchers Adbert Alzaolay and Trevor Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-19 |
Braves v. Mets OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-8 |
Win
|
105 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (913) and the New York Mets (914) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (50-34) has won six of their last eight games after they won Game Two of this series last night by a 5-4 score. New York (37-47) has lost seven straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory by one run over a fellow NL East rival. The Over is also 10-3-1 in Atlanta’s last 14 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 20 road games with the Total set at 7 to 8.5, the Braves have played 13 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Fried who is 9-3 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in sixteen starts (eighteen appearances). The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 4.50 mark along with a 1.52 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .280 in eight starts (ten games). Atlanta has played 9 of their last 12 games on the road Over the Total with Fried on the hill. Fried comes off a good effort where he allowed only two earned runs in 6 innings of work in Chicago against the Cubs (but his troubling walk rate as of late continued as he issued five bases on balls) — and the Over is 6-1-1 in the Braves’ last 8 games when Fried is looking to follow up a Quality Start. New York has played 16 of their last 24 games in the month of June Over the Total. The Mets have also played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total when favored in the -100 to -150 price range — and this includes them playing nine of their last thirteen games at home Over the Total when favored up to the -150 price. New York has also played 34 of their last 50 games Over the Total when playing at night
|
06-30-19 |
Panama v. Jamaica UNDER 2 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Jamaica (234209) and Panama (234210) in the Quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Jamaica (1W-2D-0) needed help after earning a 1-1 draw with Curacao last Tuesday which they recovered when Honduras then upset El Salvador which lifted the Reggae Boyz to win Group C of this event. Panama (2W-0D-1L) looks to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss to the USMNT on Wednesday. This match will be played on a neutral field on Lincoln Field Park in Philadelphia.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Jamaica thought they had a victory in hand on Tuesday until they gave up a tying goal in three minutes into extra time in that match to give Curacao the miracle draw which was the result they needed to make the Quarterfinals. The Reggae Boyz courted disaster with that result but were given a reprieve when Honduras the El Salvador team that could have overtaken them with a victory. That series of events should serve as a wake-up call to Jamaica regarding their defensive intensity. Manager Theodore Whitmore has his team win with defense. After their 3-2 victory in their opening match against Honduras, some might have thought this team has become more aggressive on the pitch — but remember that this match was played on their home soil in Kingston. In their last two matches in this tournament on neutral fields, the Reggae Boyz have scored only one goal. But they have only surrendered one goal as well. In their run to the Gold Cup Finals in 2017, Jamaica only allowed four goals in their six matches. They also scored just seven goals in those seven contests. In their last eight matches entering this showdown, the Reggae Boyz have scored only eleven times. Panama has only allowed three goals in this tournament. However, outside the 4 goals they scored against lowly Guyana, the Canal Men have scored just twice. The Red Wave feel very good about grinding out defensive contests after their experience at the World Cup last year. The problem for Panama last summer was that they scored only two goals in those three Group Stage matches. In their four friendlies this year before this tournament, the Canal Men scored only one time.
FINAL TAKE: Scoring will be hard to come by in this match between two teams that will be content to steal a goal late in this contest to earn the victory. 10* CONCACAF Gold Cup Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between Jamaica (234209) and Panama (234210) in the Quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-30-19 |
Rangers v. Rays UNDER 8 |
Top |
2-6 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (921) and the Tampa Bay Rays (922) listing both starting pitchers Jesse Chavez and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: Texas (46-37) saw their six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 5-2 loss to the Rays. Tampa Bay (47-36) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Texas has also played 15 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after winning at least four of their last five contests. Additionally, the Texas bullpen has pitched only five combined innings in their last three games — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when their bullpen has not logged more than 5 combined innings in their last three contests. The Rangers have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total in the month of June. They also have played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road. Jesse Chavez takes the mound with his 3-2 record along with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP across 51 2/3 innings of work. The veteran right-hander is making his first start of the season because he has allowed only one earned run in his last 14 1/3 innings of work while striking out 14 batters and walking just one over that span. Working mostly in long relief this season, Chavez has been more effective on the road where he owns a 1.37 ERA with an opponent’s batting average of .222 in 26 1/3 innings of work as compared to his 4.26 ERA along with a .271 opponent’s batting average at home. Chavez’s teams have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when he is making a start with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a slumping Rays’ team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .202 batting average along with a .260 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .622 over that span. Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Rays’ last 8 games after a win — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Tampa Bay has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is 6-2-1 in the Rays’ last 9 games at home — and the Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Snell who is 4-7 with a 5.01 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in sixteen starts. The left-hander has really struggled as of late having not completed four complete innings in three straight starts. He is struggling with his curveball which has allowed hitters to sit on his fastball. But his velocity on his fastball is still good at 96 MPH and he has an effective changeup as a counter to it. His last two starts have been on the road against two of the best offenses in baseball against the Yankees and Twins — so maybe just returning home will help cure what ails him. Snell has gotten pounded on the road where he has a 6.48 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 — but he has been very good at home with a 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .218 opponent’s batting average in seven starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.57 and 3.20 moving forward. Tampa Bay has played 21 of their last 35 games Under the Total with Snell on the hill after a win. He should find success against this Rangers team that is hitting only .228 against left-handed starting pitchers with a .307 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .693. Texas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Rangers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (921) and the Tampa Bay Rays (922) listing both starting pitchers Jesse Chavez and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-29-19 |
A's v. Angels UNDER 9.5 |
|
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 10:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (977) and the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Tyler Skaggs. THE SITUATION: Oakland (44-39) has won three of their last four games with their 7-2 victory over the Angels last night. Los Angeles (42-41) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Anderson who is 7-5 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in sixteen starts. The left-hander looks to bounce-back from a disappointing outing where he allowed 7 earned runs run in just 3 innings of work against Tampa Bay. The Under is 3-1-1 in Oakland’s last games with Anderson looking to redeem himself from an outing where he did not complete 4 full innings of work. Anderson has been more effective on the road where he owns a 4.02 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in eight starts. The A’s have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with Anderson facing a team with a winning record. Oakland has also played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total with Anderson pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces an Angels’ team that is scoring 4.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. The Under is also 11-5-3 in LA’s last 19 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Furthermore, the Angels are scoring only 4.5 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .249 batting average along with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .708. The Under is 20-7-1 in Los Angeles’ last 28 games at home against left-handed starting pitchers. The Angels have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total overall. They counter with Skaggs who is 7-6 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander was saddled with an unusually low strand rate for the runners he left on base— but the Regression Gods have finally rescued him as of late as he is getting out of more innings unscathed to help lift his Left-On-Base rate to be closer to the MLB average. Over his last two starts, Skaggs has allowed only one earned run in 12 1/3 innings of work for a 0.75 ERA along with a 0.58 WHIP over that span. Both those starts were on the road — and now Skaggs returns home where he has been more effective with a 3.58 ERA along with an opponent’s batting average of .233 in five starts as compared to his 4.72 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .255 on the road. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with Skaggs on the hill — and they have played 5 straight home games Under the Total with Skaggs facing a team with a winning record. He faces an A’s team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .228 batting average along with a .281 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .725 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: The Angels have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with Skaggs on the mound facing the A’s. Oakland has seen the Under go 3-1-2 in their last 4 games with Anderson starting against Los Angeles. 10* MLB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (977) and the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Tyler Skaggs. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-19 |
Costa Rica v. Mexico OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Quarterfinals match of the CONCACAF Gold Cup between Costa Rica (234205) and Mexico (234206). THE SITUATION: Costa Rica (2W-0D-1L) looks to bounce-back from a 2-1 loss to Haiti last Monday. Mexico (3W-0D-0L) completed their three-game sweep in Group Stage play with their 3-2 victory over Martinique last Sunday. This match will be played on a neutral field at NRG Stadium in Houston.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Costa Rica will have an opportunity to redeem themselves from suffering an upset loss to an upstart Haiti side that rallied from a 1-0 halftime deficit to score twice in the second half. That comeback certainly raises questions about the quality of the Los Ticos backline. They also surrendered a goal to a weak Bermuda side in Group Stage play after earning a clean sheet against a disappointing Nicaragua team in their opening match. Costa Rica competed in last summer’s World Cup and gave up goals in all three of their Group Stage matches. Los Ticos should rebound with a strong effort in the role of the underdog with this opportunity to knock off Mexico who are the favorites to win this tournament. Costa Rica has scored seven times in their three games — and they have scored at least one goal in four of their last five matches in all competitions. Mexico showed some leakiness with their defense by surrendering two goals to a weak Martinique team. Issues on defense have already become an issue under new manager Tito Martino who came over after leading the Atlanta United to the MLS championship last year. The former Barcelona skipper has seen El Tri give up a goal in six of the seven matches he has coached for the national team. Mexico also gave up seven goals in their four matches in last summer’s World Cup where they also failed to register a clean sheet. There one shutout under Martino was in this tournament in their opening match against Cuba which was a team that saw their captain defect before the match started. But this El Tri group can score goals. They have a whopping thirteen goals in this event — and they have scored at least three goals in all seven matches under Martino (which have all been victories).
FINAL TAKE: This match has a 2-1 score (minimum) written all over it. Mexico will get their goals — and a feisty Costa Rica side should find the back of the net at least once. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Quarterfinals match of the CONCACAF Gold Cup between Costa Rica (234205) and Mexico (234206). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-19 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 11 |
Top |
17-13 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Boston Red Sox (966) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello. THE SITUATION: New York (52-28) begins this series having won three straight games — as well as eleven of their last twelve contest — after their 8-7 victory over Toronto on Thursday. Boston (44-38) has lost three of their last five games after their 8-7 loss to the Chicago White Sox on Thursday. While the Red Sox are the technical home team who will bat last in this series, this game is being played on a neutral field at London Stadium in England.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a win by just one run. New York has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs. Additionally, the Over is a decisive 35-14-2 in the Bronx Bombers’ last 51 games on the road. They give the ball to Tanaka who is 5-5 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in sixteen starts. The deeper sabermetrics for the right-hander calls for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.18 and 3.96 moving forward. Tanaka has not been as effective away from Yankee Stadium as he owns a 3.89 ERA on the road in six starts as compared to his 2.84 ERA at home. And while Tanaka comes off a nice outing where he allowed only two runs in 6 innings of work against the Astros — but the Over is 4-1-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games when Tanaka is on the hill looking to follow up a Quality Start. The Over is also 3-1-1 in New York’s last 5 games with Tanaka facing the Red Sox. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitching. The Red Sox are swinging hot bats right now as they are scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .310 batting average along with a .378 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .868 over that span. Additionally, the Over is 40-16-2 in Boston’s last 58 games after an off day — and the Over is 29-14-2 in their last 45 opening games to a new series. The Red Sox have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total in contests with the Total set at 11 or higher. The Over is also 4-1-1 in Boston’s last 6 games against fellow AL East opponents. They counter with Porcello who is 5-7 with a 4.52 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP in sixteen starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for the right-hander either with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.89 and 5.02 respectively moving forward given his peripheral numbers. Porcello has struggled away from Fenway Park where he has a 5.15 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .289 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.11 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average when pitching in Fenway. The Red Sox have played 3 of their last 4 games with Porcello pitching with the Total set at 11 or higher. He faces a powerful Yankee lineup that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .304 batting average along with a .365 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .935.
FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Expect a high scoring game between these two teams swinging hot bats. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Boston Red Sox (966) listing both starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-19 |
Sweden (W) v. Germany (W) UNDER 2.25 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Sweden (225989) and Germany (225990). THE SITUATION: Germany (4-0-0) won their fourth straight match in this tournament with their 3-0 win over Nigeria in the Round of 16 last Saturday. Sweden (3-0-1) reached the Quarterfinals of this event with their 1-0 win over Canada last Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Die Nationalelf has scored seven goals in their last two contests against Nigeria and South Africa — but that offensive explosion may speak more to the quality of play from African nations still looking to boost the funding for their women’s soccer programs than it does about the health of the German scoring attack. The Germans scored only two combined goals in their opening two matches against China and Spain. One of the concerns for this team entering this tournament was that they had played only four friendlies under new manager Martina Voss-Tecklenburg who took over in November last year. As Voss-Tecklenburg has put her imprint on this squad, the team has become more defensive-oriented. Not only have the Germans not surrendered a goal in this tournament, but their four opponents have managed only six shots on target spanning 360 minutes play. Sweden rebounded from their 2-0 loss to the United States with their victory over Canada. But as they showed against the Americans, the Blue and Yellow tend to struggle against opponents that are loaded with talent and that play with space. That is an apt description of what they will see from the Germans this afternoon. Goal scoring can be an issue for this team that lacks the proven goal scorers of the past that helped them reach the finals of the 2016 Olympics. Besides the five goals they scored against an overmatched Thailand team (who surrendered 13 goals against the US), Sweden has scored only three goals in their other three matches. But the Blue and Yellow are stout defensively as they have surrendered one goal outside their match with the USWNT.
FINAL TAKE: Sweden is very comfortable trying to grind out a low-scoring match. Given Germany’s new emphasis on defensive tactics, expect a low scoring match. 10* Women’s World Cup Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Sweden (225989) and Germany (225990). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-19 |
Netherlands (W) v. Italy (W) OVER 2.25 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-55.5 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225985) and Italy (225986). THE SITUATION: The Netherlands (4W-0D-0L) reached the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup with their 2-1 win over Japan on Tuesday. Italy (3W-0D-1L) advanced to the Quarterfinals the same day with a 2-0 victory over China.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Netherlands scored in the 90th minute on a penalty kick conversion by Lieke Martens. But the Orange Lionesses were fortunate to survive that match with Japan controlling the pace of play for the last 20 minutes of the second half while blowing a number of good scoring opportunities. Japan had 12 shots in that match. The defense for the Netherlands appeared to be the weak link for this team when they began this tournament. While Stephanie van der Gragt is a strong and physical defender, the rest of the group in the backline is a young and inexperienced group that may not be as talented as some of the defenders in the Quarterfinals. The Dutch have surrendered a goal in three straight matches. And while they did enjoy a clean sheet against New Zealand to open this tournament, remember that the Kiwis were a defensive-oriented side that scored only three goals in their three Group Stage matches before being eliminated. The Netherlands route to reaching the Semifinals will likely require them scoring multiple goals — but they have the elite forward talent that can accomplish this task with Martens joined by Vivianne Miedema and Shanice van de Sandeen along with the 22-year old Lineth Beerensteyn who has found success coming off the bench. The Orange Lionesses have scored eight goals in this tournament. The Dutch also scored nine goals in their three Knockout Stage matches in the 2017 Euro Championship — so high scoring games were the norm for them in winning that tournament. Italy has scored nine times in this event with multiple goals scored in three of their four matches. There was plenty of action in their match with China as Le Azzurre attempted 17 shots with the Chinese making 20 shot attempts. Italy pushes the pace of play in a free-flowing style. Both teams have scored at least one goal in six of their last nine matches across all competitions.
FINAL TAKE: Look for this match to play out similar to the Netherlands’ contest with Japan where the match became level at 1-1 about midway before a team broke out to score a second goal. 25* Women’s World Cup FS1-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225985) and Italy (225986). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-28-19 |
Chile v. Colombia OVER 2 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chile (234481) and Colombia (234482). THE SITUATION: Colombia (3W-0D-0L) won all three of their Group Stage matches after they defeated Paraguay by a 1-0 score last Sunday. Chile (2W-0D-1L) looks to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss to Uruguay on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Colombia has scored four goals in their three victories — and they have not surrendered a goal in their three Group Stage matches. But after registering a clean sheet against the mess that remains the current Argentina national team (despite having Lionel Messi), Los Cafeteros have not faced offensive juggernauts in Qatar and then Paraguay on Sunday. Paraguay generated 10 shots while controlling possession for 54% of that match — so it is not as if Colombia has been stifling on the defensive end of the pitch. Los Cafeteros play their two fullbacks high which makes them vulnerable to counter-attacks. Their backline is considered their biggest vulnerability. This team also has the reputation of folding versus elite teams — and they continued to enable that perception with losses last summer to Japan and then England in the Round of 16 of the World Cup. Colombia is winless in their last nine matches against a Chile team that is the two-time defending champions of the Copa America. I suspect that Los Cafeteros will surrender at least one goal — but they should also score at least once in this match. Colombia plays a direct style with a possession-based attack. They are led by one of the best-attacking midfielders in the world in James Rodriguez who was a breakout star for them in Brazil (this locale this summer) in the 2014 World Cup. He is complemented by a veteran attacker in Radamel Falcao. They will be challenged by a Chile side that showed grit and determination in their 1-0 loss to Uruguay on Monday. La Roja seems to be an aging team with Alexis Sanchez, Eduardo Vargas, and Arturo Vidal all past their primes. But this group controlled possession for 59% of their match against Uruguay before losing to an Edinson Cavani goal in the 82nd. Chile had a healthy 12 shots in that match. They have scored six times in this tournament as their loss on Monday was their first match in their last nine where they did not score at least one goal. La Roja’s defense takes a hit tonight with one of their leaders on their backline, Gary Medal, a doubt with an injury.
FINAL TAKE: Chile has scored and conceded at least one goal in six of their last eight matches across all competitions. I see both teams scoring in this match in what should be full of drama. Colombia wants to grab the torch from La Roja — but this proud Chile side will be very difficult to dethrone as the two-time reigning Copa America champions. 25* Copa America Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Chile (234481) and Colombia (234482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-28-19 |
USA (W) v. France (W) UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the United States (225981) and France (225982). THE SITUATION: The USWNT (4W-0D-0L) reached the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup with their 2-1 win over Spain on Monday. France (4-0-0) made it to the Quarterfinals the day before with their 2-1 victory over Brazil that required the extra 30 minutes of time to resolve a 1-1 score after 90 minutes.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams have potent offenses that tend to overwhelm lesser opponents. The question in handicapping this match is to discern whether or not the respective managers will continue to play aggressively or instead embrace more defensive tactics in this showdown that might very well determine the winner of this tournament. France manager Corinne Diacre tends to have her team play more cautiously when facing elite competition. A 1-0 win over Australia in April along with a 2-0 win over the Matildas last October and a 1-0 loss to Germany on February 28th of this year is evidence of this tactic. And after their opening 4-0 win over the Korea Republic, Les Bleus have scored only five combined goals (in 285 minutes of play). France managed only three shots on goal against Brazil on Sunday as their frontline struggled against the physical Brazilian backline. Les Bleus forwards and midfielders have too often appeared too scripted while lacking the cohesion of clicking together in more creative opportunities. That is not a good sign when facing an American team that has registered 18 clean sheets in their last 23 matches. Team USA saw their clean sheet streak of seven matches snapped on Monday against Spain. Perhaps not coincidentally, manager Jill Ellis did not start Lindsey Horan in that match out of fear that she would be whistled with a second yellow card which would suspend her for this showdown. Getting Horan back helps the US team on both ends of the pitch — but don’t underestimate her defensive capabilities particularly in tackling opposing players move the ball up the pitch. A key question for Ellis is what her starting midfield will be — particularly, whether or not she will start holding midfielder, Julie Ertz. I think she does as the Stars and Stripes improved significantly when Ertz was converted from the backline to the midfield to improve the defensive presence of this team — and it helps explain the clean sheet run the team is on. Questions have developed for the USWNT on offense after they managed only two shots on net against Spain. It is not a good sign that both their goals scored were from penalty kicks. Alex Morgan has been scoreless in her last three games as she seems to be slowed by nagging injuries. Megan Rapinoe is out of form on the pitch despite her two penalty kick goals on Monday. Spain provided a blueprint as to how to slow down the American attack: cut off the service to forwards, press the sometimes shaky US backline, and play rough with their attackers once they find a dangerous scoring position. With central defenders Wendie Renard and Griddle Mbock Bathy, Les Bleus have the prototype physical defenders that can make things difficult for the American attackers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played three times since March of 2017. The USA has scored only two goals in those three matches. This past success on defense will likely compel Diacre to have her team play cautiously with the advantage of playing this match on home soil in Paris. And I think Ellis will not have her squad push the agenda too hard precisely because this is a true road contest with the hopes that the skill and experience of her players will eventually make the difference. Expect no more than two combined goals to be scored in the first 90 minutes of this match. 25* Women’s World Cup Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between the United States (225981) and France (225982). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-27-19 |
England (W) v. Norway (W) UNDER 2.5 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-123 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between England (225977) and Norway (225978) in the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Norway (3W-0D-1L) advanced from the Round of 16 last Saturday by defeating Australia in the shootout by a 4-1 score after 120 minutes of play that saw those two sides deadlocked at 1-1. England (4W-0D-0L) defeated Cameroon on Sunday with a 3-0 victory to reach the Quarterfinals.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England has allowed only one goal in this tournament in their four matches against Scotland in their opening match. The Three Lionesses have registered three straight clean sheets to help them reach the Quarterfinals. But manager Phil Neville has a significant challenge on his hands this afternoon with both his starting center backs being major doubts to play this afternoon. Captain Steph Houghton dealing with an ankle injury she suffered last Saturday and Millie Bright is under the weather with an illness that has impacted the team over the last few days. Neville will likely have to turn to backups Leah Williamson and Abbie McManus to start this match at center back. This is far from ideal. The knee-jerk reaction might be for some bettors to assume that the absence of these two starters on the backline of the England starting XI will lead to a higher scoring match. I suspect that this situation will compel Neville to instruct his players to play more cautiously particularly by keeping his midfielders back in more defensive holding positions. The Three Lionesses still have Lucy Bronze at right back who might be the best defensive player in the world. Neville will likely have his team choose their battles carefully given these injuries. Norway has allowed three goals in this tournament — but two of those goals were against the powerful host nation, France. Cohesion and chemistry are two advantages for this team anchored by a backline of Chelsea teammates Maren Mjedle and Maria Thorisdottir. Australia is one of the most prolific offensive teams in the world with an aggressive pressure system complemented by one of the best strikers in the world in Sam Kerr. Yet the Matildas scored only one goal in 120 minutes of play when accounting for the 30 minutes of extra time. The Grass Hoppers have scored seven times in their four matches (which includes those 30 extra minutes against Australia) — but keep in mind that one of those goals was an own goal by the French.
FINAL TAKE: Expect both sides to play conservatively in this match with the tension high to not surrender the first goal. 10* Women’s World Cup Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between England (225977) and Norway (225978) in the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-26-19 |
United States v. Panama OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-128 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between the United States (234923) and Panama (234924). THE SITUATION: The USMNT (2-0-0) clinched a spot in the Quarterfinals of the Gold Cup with their 6-0 victory over Trinidad and Tobago last Saturday. Panama (2-0-0) joined them in the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 4-2 victory over Guyana on Saturday. This match will be played at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The US Men’s National Team enjoyed their best effort under new manager Gregg Berhalter in this match which offered the team a small modicum of revenge against a Trinidad and Tobago team that eliminated them from qualifying for the 2018 World Cup back in November of 2017. Getting players like Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie playing together for an extended period of time is certainly helping to build cohesion for this team. The offensive attack is looking up with the Stars and Stripes having scored ten goals in their two matches. And Berhalter deserves credit for his halftime adjustments considering that eight of these ten goals have been scored after halftime. Berhalter has installed a new system for the American national team that emphasizes possession along with counter pressing to retake control of the ball. This is an approach that can help produce blowout wins against overmatched foes (like Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana who were their first two opponents). The USA has generated a whopping 39 steals so far in this tournament. But defense remains an issue for this team despite them pony allowing 13 shots in their first two matches. Team USA struggled on defense in a 3-0 loss to Venezuela and a 1-0 loss to Jamaica in their last final two friendlies before this tournament. The Stars and Stripes lack quality center defenders — and Michael Bradley is their only midfielder with quality defensive skills (with Mckenzie who stars as a holding midfielder playing in Bundesliga being asked to play up on the pitch by Berhalter). Don’t be surprised if Panama finds plenty of scoring opportunities when they beat the American counter-press. Los Canaleros are also happy to counter-attack to regain possession as well — they have 34 steals in their first two matches in this tournament. Panama has scored six times in their two matches after taking 19 shots against Guyana with eight of them on target. The Red Wave are entering a new generation this year after seeing the retirement of longtime leaders in Blas Perez and Felipe Baloy. But this group will not be intimidated by playing the United States since they were actually in Russia last summer playing soccer in the World Cup while the Americans watched on television. Panama lost all three of their World Cup matches but they scored two goals while surrendering eleven goals with all three of their matches seeing at least three combined goals scored. Los Canaleros are 6W-4D-2L in their last twelve matches in the Gold Cup — and they have displayed prowess on the offensive side of the pitch in those matches by scoring 17 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on January 27th in a friendly where the United States won by a 3-0 score. First place in Group D is at stake with a match with Curacao in the Quarterfinals — and that is a more attractive opening match in the Knockout Stage than the loser’s match in the Quarterfinals with Jamaica. Both teams should be playing to win — expect a higher scoring match between two teams that push the pace of play. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group Stage Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between the United States (234923) and Panama (234924). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-26-19 |
Mets v. Phillies OVER 10.5 |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (905) and the Philadelphia Phillies (906) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (40-38) won the second game of this series last night by a 7-5 score. New York (37-42) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring last least five runs in their last game. Philadelphia has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. And in their last 7 home games with the Total set at 10, the Phillies have played 5 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Pivetta who is 4-2 with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander suffered a disastrous start to the season which resulted in him being demoted to Triple-A. His prolific strikeout numbers made him a breakout candidate in some circles — and he enjoyed some good starts when recalled to the big leagues. But the inconsistent hurler has reverted back to form over his last two starts where he has surrendered 10 earned runs in 12 innings of work for a 7.50 ERA along with a 1.67 WHIP. Command has been the biggest stumbling block for Pivetta. And while his last two starts were on the road, Pivetta returns home where he owns a 5.85 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .308 as compared to his more modest 5.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average on the road. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Pivetta on the hill — and they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with Pivetta facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Mets team that has scored 5.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .285 batting average along with a .347 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .876 over that span. The Over is 9-1-1 in New York’s last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is 9-1-2 in the Mets’ last 12 games after a loss — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 8-2-1 in New York’s last 11 games on the road. They counter with Vargas who is 3-3 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in twelve starts (thirteen games). The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.27 and 5.30 moving forward. And while the left-hander has a nice 2.79 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .202 at home, those numbers rise significantly to a 4.65 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and a .268 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 7-2-2 in the Mets’ last 11 games on the road with Vargas on the hill. He faces a Philly team that has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total at home against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Phillies have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 5 straight games Over the Total with Pivetta facing the Mets. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Philly. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (905) and the Philadelphia Phillies (906) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-25-19 |
A's v. Cardinals UNDER 9 |
|
7-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (977) and the St. Louis Cardinals (978) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Oakland (41-38) has lost two of their last three games with their 8-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. St. Louis (40-37) looks to rebound from their 6-4 loss to the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Oakland bullpen pitched 6 innings in that game on Sunday — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where their bullpen logged in at least 6 innings of work. The A’s have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Bassitt who is 4-3 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has been more effective when pitching on the road where he owns a 3.07 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .185 in five starts. Additionally, the Under is 3-1-1 in the A’s last 5 games with Bassitt pitching against a National League opponent. He should pitch well against this slumping Cardinals team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .225 batting average along with a .287 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .635. St. Louis has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Cardinals have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after an off day. St. Louis stays at home where they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Flaherty who is 4-4 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has thrived at home where he owns a 2.49 ERA along with a 0.83 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .185 in eight starts as compared to his 6.68 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .288 on the road. These disparate home-road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 2.93 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP at home as opposed to his 3.67 ERA and 1.16 WHIP when on the road. St. Louis has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Flaherty on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Oakland has played 5 straight road games Under the Total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. 10* MLB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (977) and the St. Louis Cardinals (978) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-25-19 |
Japan (W) v. Netherlands (W) OVER 2.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
105 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Japan (225973) and the Netherlands (225974). THE SITUATION: The Netherlands (3W-0D-0L) completed their perfect mark in Group Stage play with their 2-1 win over Canada last Thursday. Japan (1W-1D-1L) looks to rebound from a 2-0 loss to England last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The conventional wisdom regarding Japan in this tournament is that they have struggled in their attack. It might be hard to argue with that conclusion when considering that they have scored only two goals in their three Group Stage matches. But the Nadeshiko Japan has not parked the bus in their back end to focus primarily on stopping their opponent from scoring. After a passive first half against Argentina in their opening match where neither team attempted a shot on target, Japan stepped up their pressure while controlling the ball for 72% of that match. They played much better in their second match against Scotland where they attempted 19 shots with seven on target in what ended in a 2-1 victory. We then had a big play on England in their third match — but Japan had opportunities to score in that match. They controlled possession for 48% of that match against a strong Three Lions side that will be playing in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. They outshot England by a 16 to 14 margin. The Nadeshiko Japan is a side in transition that has gone younger after failing to qualify for the 2016 Olympics. But this remains a very proud national program that won the 2011 World Cup before losing in the Finals of the 2015 World Cup. I expect their continued pressure that they have applied on offense to score at least one goal against a Netherlands back end that is the weak link of that team. Japan’s backline can also be a bit leaky as they demonstrated in their loss to England — and they are facing a Dutch team that has more offensive firepower. Japan surrendered six goals in their three matches in the Algarve Cup earlier this year. That nil-nil draw with Argentina to open this tournament was their only clean sheet in their last ten matches across all competitions. The Netherlands have scored six goals in their three matches in this tournament. The Dutch women have an elite trio on their frontline with Vivianne Miedema, Shanice van de Sanden, and superstar Lieke Martens. The Three Lionesses also have a strong group of midfielders led by Danielle van de Donk. The Three Lionesses entered this event having scored 12 combined goals in their last three matches against Australia, Chile, and Mexico in friendlies.
FINAL TAKE: The last time these two teams played was in the 2018 Algarve Cup which the Netherlands won by a 6-2 score. While I do not expect that many goals to be scored this afternoon, I do see at least three combined goals scored. 10* Women’s World Cup Tuesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Japan (225973) and the Netherlands (225974). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-25-19 |
China (W) v. Italy (W) UNDER 2 |
|
0-2 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 0 m |
Show
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At 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Italy (225970) and China (225969). THE SITUATION: Italy (2-0-1) enters the Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup looking to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss to Brazil last Tuesday. China (1-1-1) ensured their spot in the Knockout Stage with a 0-0 draw with Spain last Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: China has scored only one goal in their three matches in Group Stage play — but they have allowed only goal in those three matches as well. They opened this tournament with a 1-0 loss to Germany before earning a 1-0 win over South Africa. The Steel Roses were cowardly on offense in their 0-0 draw with Spain last week as they managed a mere one shot in the entire match. China plays very physical on defense in a style of play that borderlines on being dirty. This roughness has the ambition of forcing their opponent to make mistakes. China will be very content to play a scoreless draw through the 120 minutes of play on the pitch in this knockout round to take their chances with penalty kicks. But the Steel Roses controlled possession in just 37% of their match against Spain after controlling the ball in only 42% of their opening match with Germany. Italy plays outstanding defense. After allowing only four goals in their eight World Cup qualifying matches, Italy has surrendered only two goals in this tournament. A clean sheet is very likely against this Chia side that has scored only one goal in their three Group Stage matches.
FINAL TAKE: China has seen five of their last eight matches result on one of less combined goals scored. This is a product of their commitment to defense at the expense of applying almost zero pressure on the other end of the pitch. I think the likelihood of three combined goals being scored is low. Let’s take our chances on a 1-0 or 0-0 result. 10* Women’s World Cup Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Italy (225970) and China (225969). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-24-19 |
Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (907) and the San Francisco Giants (908) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Drew Pomeranz. THE SITUATION: Colorado (40-37) enters this game on a three-game losing streak after their 6-3 loss at Los Angeles against the Dodgers. San Francisco (33-43) looks to bounce-back from a 3-2 loss at Arizona yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 3-1-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 games after a loss — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Colorado has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Gray who is 7-5 with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in fifteen starts (sixteen games). The right-hander has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 3.47 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP in seven appearances (six starts). But in Gray’s nine starts on the road, he sees those numbers rise to a 4.67 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP. Gray had a 5.34 ERA on the road last season. The Over is 5-1-1 in Colorado’s last 7 games on the road with Gray on the hill. He faces a Giants’ team that has seen the Over go 3-0-2 in their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring no more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 8-3-2 in the Giants’ last 13 home games. They counter with Pomeranz who is 2-7 with a 7.09 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP in thirteen starts. Pomeranz’s teams have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with him pitching as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. Pomeranz faces a Rockies team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 15-5-1 in San Francisco’s last 21 games when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. Expect a higher scoring game. 10* MLB Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (907) and the San Francisco Giants (908) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Drew Pomeranz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-24-19 |
Canada (W) v. Sweden (W) OVER 1.75 |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Sweden (225966) and Canada (225965). THE SITUATION: Sweden (2-0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 2-0 loss to the United States on Thursday. Canada (2-0-1) also looks to rebound from a 2-1 loss to the Netherlands on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Total is set at 2 for this match (and even lower in some spots) since this is a Round of 16 matches between two teams that feature outstanding defenses. These two teams also played in March in the Algarve Cup with that result being a nil-nil draw that Canada won via Penalty Kicks. This time around, I expect both teams to score at least once in the first 90 minutes. Remember, if and when one team gets on the board first, the pressure will be enormous for the other side to play more aggressively to level the score. That ambition creates scoring opportunities for both sides. Canada is considered a light scoring team with only Christine Sinclair offering the Reds a credible scoring option. But the Leaf Girls have scored in all three of their Group Stage matches with Jessie Fleming, Kadeisha Buchanan, and Nichelle Prince scoring along with Sinclair in this tournament. The Netherlands also scored twice on the Canadian defense to demonstrate that they are not invulnerable in back. Sweden has scored seven times in this World Cup. And while they endured a clean sheet at the hands of the United States, there is little shame in that when considering that the Stars and Stripes have registered clean sheets in seven of their last eight World Cup matches (before today). The Blue and Yellow scored 22 times in their eight matches in the qualification rounds.
FINAL TAKE: Look for both sides to score this afternoon with a 2-1 result in the first 90 minutes very possible. 10* Women’s World Cup Monday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Sweden (225966) and Canada (225965). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-23-19 |
Fever v. Storm UNDER 154 |
|
61-65 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Fever (667) and the Seattle Storm (668). THE SITUATION: Indiana (5-5) snapped a two-game losing streak on Friday with their 76-69 upset win in Chicago as a 5-point underdog. Seattle (6-4) has won three of their last four games with their 84-62 upset win over Los Angeles on Friday as a 1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Fever made 44.3% of their shots on Friday which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. Indiana is making only 41.8% of their shots over their last five games — and they shoot just 43.4% when playing on the road. The Fever have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Indiana has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Furthermore, the Fever have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. And in their last 9 road games against Western Conference foes, Indian has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Seattle has played 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three contests. The Under is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread victory. The Storm was red hot from behind the arc on Friday as they nailed 14 of their 26 shots (54%) from 3-point land. But Seattle has then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after making at least eleven 3-pointers in their last game. Moving forward, the Under is 9-3-1 in the Storm’s last 13 games when playing with one day of rest. Seattle stays at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. And in their last 6 games against Eastern Conference opponents in non-conference play, the Under is 4-1-1.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a lower scoring game between these two teams with both clubs coming off one of their shooting efforts of the season. 10* WNBA Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Fever (667) and the Seattle Storm (668). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-23-19 |
Padres v. Pirates OVER 9.5 |
|
10-11 |
Win
|
104 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 1:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (955) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) listing both starting pitchers Joey Lucchesi and Steven Brault. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (35-40) has won three straight games with their 6-3 win over the Padres on Saturday. San Diego (38-39) has lost two straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 21-6-2 in the Pirates’ last 29 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 18-6-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 26 games at home — and the Over is 10-1-2 in their last 13 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Over is 11-3-2 in the Pirates’ last 16 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Brault who is 3-1 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in twelve appearances this season which includes six starts. The left-hander has struggled in day games where he has a 5.85 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .282. Brault has also not been as effective at home where he has a 4.67 ERA as compared to his 4.25 ERA on the road. Last season, Brault was saddled with a 6.00 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP and .258 opponent’s batting average at home in PNC Park as opposed to his 3.44 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .232 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Pirates last 4 home games with Brault on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Padres lineup that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .286 batting average along with a .365 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .838 in those games. The Over is also 6-2-2 in San Diego’s last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Additionally, the Over is 3-0-1 in the Padres’ last 4 games after a loss — and the Over is 8-3-2 in their last 13 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, the Over is 4-1-1 in San Diego’s last 6 games on the road — and the Over is 18-6-3 in their last 27 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They counter with Lucchesi who is 6-4 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has thrived at home in the spacious confines of Petco Park where he enjoys a 2.70 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .195 in nine starts — but those numbers skyrocket to a 5.88 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .260 in his five starts on the road. The Padres have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Lucchesi on the hill. He faces a Pirates team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .304 batting average along with a .350 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .857 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 7-1-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against left-handed starting pitchers. We had a big play on the Over in the opening game of this series that did not come through — but I expect to see some of that back in this situation. 10* MLB Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (955) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) listing both starting pitchers Joey Lucchesi and Steven Brault. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-23-19 |
Cameroon (W) v. England (W) UNDER 3 |
|
0-3 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Cameroon (225953) and England (225954). THE SITUATION: England (3-0-0) completed their three-game sweep in Group Stage play on Wednesday with their 2-0 win over Japan. Cameroon (1-0-2) scored a dramatic goal in the 95th minute on Thursday to eke out a 2-1 win over New Zealand (while ruining our Under play) to provide them the crucial 3 points necessary to become one of the four third-place teams from Group Stage play to advance to the Knockout Stage Round of 16.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cameroon has new life after pulling out that win over the Kiwis. They will be a dangerous adversary to the Three Lionesses as the underdog with no expectations in this match. But dismissing the Indomitable Lions would be a mistake for England. Cameroon also made it to the Round of 16 in the 2015 World Cup where they narrowly lost to China by a 1-0 score. While it is true that the Indomitable Lions have allowed their opponent to score at least one goal in six straight World Cup matches, they have faced a very difficult schedule during that stretch. Five of those six opponents who scored goals against them reached the Round of 16. Cameroon has implemented a defensive approach that has been pretty successful. The 5-4-1 structure they deployed in their opening match against Canada resulted in a narrow 1-0 loss. They changed that form to a 4-3-3 in their second match against the Netherlands — and while the 3-1 loss looks dominant on paper, they held the Dutch scoreless for the first 41 minutes of that match and entered halftime with a tie 1-1 score. Cameroon has also only scored three times in this tournament after scoring just three times in their last three World Cup matches in 2015. Their outlier match in 2015 was an opening round 6-0 blowout victory over an overmatched Ecuador side. England has been outstanding on defense so far in this tournament by only allowing one goal against Scotland. But while the Lionesses have scored five goals in their three matches, the fluid attacking style that manager Phil Neville has attempted to implement has often gotten stuck. England striker Fran Kirby has struggled in this tournament after entering this event out of form with talk that she is suffering from various injuries.
FINAL TAKE: The heat will play a factor in this match with the temperature rising above 30 degree Celsius for this contest in Valenciennes. That is Las Vegas weather which will be a challenge for England. Neville has rotated his roster well so far in these games — and he adapts his team’s approach based off their opponent. Look for the Three Lionesses to play conservatively to maintain their defensive integrity with the expectation that their talent and depth will ultimately overwhelm the Indomitable Lions. On the other side, I expect Cameroon manager Alain Djeumfa to go back to that 5-4-1 defensive approach that kept them alive in that opening match against a tough Canadian team. 10* Women’s World Cup Cameroon-England FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between Cameroon (225953) and England (225954). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-22-19 |
Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
Top |
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (913) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (914) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Beede and Zack Godley. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (32-43) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 11-5 win over the Diamondbacks. Arizona (38-39) has lost five straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants played their fourth straight game Over the Total last night — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-1 in San Fran’s last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have now played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NL East opponents. Furthermore, the Giants have played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 14-6-2 in their last 22 road games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 17 road games as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range, San Francisco has played 11 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Beede who is 1-2 with a 6.67 ERA with a 1.91 WHIP in 28 1/3 innings of work. The former first-round pick picked up his first win in MLB on Monday in Los Angeles against the Dodgers — but he still has a troubling 6.75 ERA when pitching on the road. Beede has also struggled in night games where he has a 7.97 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .282. The rookie has an uninspiring 32:22 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season. The Giants have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Beede on the mound as an underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. He faces a Diamondbacks team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Arizona has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by at least five runs. This team has also played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Godley who is 3-4 with a 6.52 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in fifteen appearances which include eleven starts. The right-hander has been clobbered when pitching at home in Chase Field where he has a 7.09 ERA in eight games which includes five starts. Godley also is saddled with a 7.33 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .288 in six starts (eleven appearances) at night. The seeds in Godley’s decline were evident last year where his Ground Ball rate declined by 6.5% while his walk rate of 4.09 Bases-on-Balls per 9 innings was over 1.0 Walk higher per 9 innings than in 2017. Godley will not pitch deep into this game — especially when considering that he had an ugly 9.20 ERA when going through the batting order for the third time last year. But the Arizona bullpen has struggled with a 7.22 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP in their last seven games. The Diamondbacks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Godley facing a team with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a loss where they allowed at least 10 runs. These two teams have played 4 straight games Over the Total. Expect another higher-scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (913) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (914) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Beede and Zack Godley. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-22-19 |
Australia (W) v. Norway (W) OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-144 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Norway (225949) and Australia (225950). THE SITUATION: Norway (2-0-1) finished with six points in Group Stage play with their 2-1 win over South Korea on Monday. Australia (2-0-1) also punched their ticket into the Knockout Stage with a decisive 4-1 victory over Jamaica on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Sam Kerr scored four times on Tuesday against the Reggae Girlz to propel the Matildas to eight goals scored in their three matches which is the second most for any team in this tournament. Australia is a high-scoring team with their pressing style under manager Ante Milicic. But this high-risk/high-reward approach makes them vulnerable to counter-attacks especially when considering that their backline has some deficiencies. The Matildas have surrendered five goals in their three Group State matches. This style also tends to enable wild contests. Australia blew a 1-0 lead in their opening match against Italy that resulted in a 2-1 loss — but their aggressive tactics were exactly what they needed against Brazil as they rallied from a 2-0 deficit to defeat them by a 3-2 score. With talents like Kerr and Caitlin Foord up top, it makes sense for the Matildas to deploy this approach. But in a 3-0 loss to the Netherlands and a 5-3 loss to the United States in the lead up to this tournament, this strategy has its vulnerabilities. This Norway team is very good despite being without their best player, Ada Hegerberg, who is boycotting participation with the national team given their unequal treatment of women’s athletics. The Grass Hoppers have scored five goals in this tournament which a 2-1 loss to the host nation, France, who are one of the top favorites to lift the championship trophy. Norway still has quality players — led by Caroline Graham Hansen who is expected to play this afternoon after suffering a knock in that match with South Korea this week. The Grass Hoppers scored 22 goals in their eight qualifying matches for this World Cup. As one of the traditional European powers that have won a World Cup back in 1995, they have a balanced and talented group of players who should find plenty of scoring opportunities in a counter-attack against the aggressive tactics of Australia. But I am concerned about their defense after allowing South Korea to attempt 22 shots against them on Tuesday.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played last year in the Algarve Cup with Australia pulling out a 4-3 shootout. While seven combined goals may be too much to expect in this contest, I do expect a higher scoring match. 25* Women’s World Cup Fox-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Norway (225949) and Australia (225950). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-22-19 |
Nigeria (W) v. Germany (W) OVER 3 |
|
0-3 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Germany (225945) and Nigeria (225946). THE SITUATION: Germany (3-0-0) completed their perfect Group Stage mark with a 4-0 win over South Africa on Monday. Nigeria (1-0-2) lost to France on Monday by a 1-0 score but were able to advance to the Knockout Stage as one of the four qualifying third-place teams.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The challenge for Germany has been to respond to the broken toe of their best player, Dzsenifer Marozsan. The midfielder suffered this injury in their opening 1-0 victory over China at this event. Die Nationalelf has missed her presence on the pitch particularly on offense as she entered this tournament with 32 goals in 98 caps for the national team. Germany still looked sluggish on offense in their second match which resulted in a 1-0 win over Spain. However, this German side enjoyed their best offensive effort in this World Cup campaign by scoring four times against the South Africans which suggests they have found some chemistry moving forward. Die Nationalelf still has plenty of scoring talent on their roster — they scored 38 goals in their qualifying rounds which were nine more goals than the next highest prolific scoring team. The tactics this team uses under manager Martina Voss-Tecklenburg is to deploy quick and decisive attacks from their front six while pressing their opponents when they have possession. Five different players have scored goals for this team in this tournament to display their balanced attack. And Sara Dabritz has stepped up in Marozsan’s absence by scoring twice as she has taken her spot on the pitch as an advancing midfielder. But Dabritz taking on this role moves her away from her strength as a holding defensive midfielder — and this is dangerous for the Germans since their aggressive style makes them vulnerable to counter-attacks with their relatively slow center backs on their back line. I expect Nigeria to score at least one goal against this German team that has not surrendered a goal yet in this tournament. The Super Falcons have only scored twice in this tournament — but they have three uber-talented forwards with speed and skills who thrive when counterattacking. Nigeria was in defensive mode against host nation France on Monday knowing that getting smothered in that match would derail their goal differential which would play a crucial role in tie-breakers to make the Round of 16. Look for the Super Falcons to play more aggressively — especially if they fall behind in this one-and-done situation at this point of the tournament. Nigeria scored seven goals in their four matches earlier this year in the Cyprus Women’s Tournament. But the vulnerability of these Super Falcons is their defense as they lack players that have the characteristics of true defenders or midfielders — and this weakness will be compounded today with the suspension of defender, Ngori Ebere, who was whistled for two yellow cards on Monday.
FINAL TAKE: This should be a higher-scoring match given the matchup of styles of two teams that are direct in their attacks while emphasizing the use of speedy wings go and up and down the pitch. Even without Marozsan, Germany will score goals — and I do expect Nigeria to score at least once. 10* World Cup Germany-Nigeria FS1-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the match between Germany (225945) and Nigeria (225946). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-21-19 |
Curacao v. Honduras UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Curacao (234253) and Honduras (234524). THE SITUATION: Curacao (0-0-1) lost their opening match in the Gold Cup with a 1-0 loss to El Salvador on Monday. Honduras (0-0-1) also lost their opening match in the Gold Cup with a 3-2 loss to Jamaica on Monday. This match will be played on a neutral field at Houston’s BBVA Compass Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Curacao did not display much energy on the offensive end of the pitch against El Salvador. They managed only three shots in that contest as they never tested the Salvador goalkeeper, Henry Hernandez. This is just the second Gold Cup ever for this island colony of the Netherlands. This team failed to score a goal in their three Group Stage matches in the 2017 Gold Cup. But this team is not necessarily pushovers either with the majority of the roster playing in the professional leagues of the Netherlands. In their four matches in the CONCACAF Nations League Qualifiers, Curacao allowed only two goals while producing three clean sheets. Honduras has only scored four goals in their last five matches across all competitions. Los Catrachos did not score a goal in their four Gold Cup matches in 2017. But they only allowed five goals in those four matches which culminated in a narrow 1-0 loss in the Quarterfinals to Mexico. The three goals they allowed against Jamaica needs to be taken with some context as the Reggae Boyz were playing on their home pitch in Kington in National Stadium.
FINAL TAKE: Honduras was able to make the Quarterfinals of the 2017 Gold Cup with just one point given their draw with Canada which ended in a scoreless draw — so do not underestimate the value these teams put in a nil-nil result. With the Total set at 2.5, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group C Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Curacao (234253) and Honduras (234524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-21-19 |
Padres v. Pirates OVER 9 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-113 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (958) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: San Diego (38-37) comes off a four-game sweep of the Brewers after their 8-7 victory on Wednesday. Pittsburgh (33-40) has won two of their last three games with their 8-7 win over Detroit on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 11-4-1 in the Padres’ last 16 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 8-2-2 in their last 12 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 5-0-2 in San Diego’s last 7 games after an off day. The Padres have played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total after a win. And while the San Diego bullpen did not allow a run in their last game against the Brewers, they have then played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen did not allow an earned run. The Padres stay on the road where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Lauer who is 5-6 with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has thrived in the spacious confirms of Petco Park where he has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244 — but those numbers skyrocket to a 7.81 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .310 in his six starts on the road. The Over is 5-0-2 in San Diego’s last 7 games on the road with Lauer on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Pirates team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .301 batting average along with a .349 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .855 over that span. The Over is 15-5-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Additionally, the Over is 14-4-2 in the Pirates’ last 20 games after a victory. Furthermore, the Over is 21-5-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 28 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Pirates have played 8 straight home games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after an off day. Pittsburgh stays at home where the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Musgrove who is 4-7 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in fourteen starts (fifteen appearances) this year. The left-hander has particularly struggled at home where he has a 5.71 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .284 in six starts. The Pirates have played 5 straight home games Over the Total with Musgrove on the hill. He also faces a hot-hitting team right now with the Padres scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .331 batting average along with a .391 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .961 in those games. San Diego has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played in mid-May with the Pirates winning the last three games on the road despite being the underdog. The Padres have played 23 of their last 31 road games Over the Total when playing with at least double revenge after being upset as a home favorite in their last two games with their current opponent. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (958) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-21-19 |
Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (955) and the Washington Nationals (956) listen both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Stephen Strasburg. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (44-31) has won three of their last four games after their 7-2 win over the New York Mets on Wednesday. Washington (36-38) has won four in a row with their 7-4 win over Philadelphia yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals stay at home where the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Over is also 5-2-1 in Washington’s last 8 opening games to a new series. They give the ball to Strasburg who is 7-4 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in fifteen starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 4.74 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in his seven starts as compared to his 2.92 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .199 on the road. The Over is a decisive 38-13-2 in the Nationals’ last 53 home games with Strasburg on the hill — and the Over is also 20-6-1 in their last 27 home games with Strasburg facing a team with a winning record. Washington has also played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Strasburg on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 8.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .323 batting average along with a .382 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .960 over that span. The Over is 15-5-1 in Atlanta’s last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Over is 13-3-1 in the Braves’ last 17 games after a win — and the Over is 21-5-2 in their last 28 games after an off day. Additionally, Atlanta has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a victory by at least four runs — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Braves go on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Keuchel who is making his debut with this team after signing as a free agent midseason. The left-hander was 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP last year for the Astros. But Keuchel was not as effective on the road last year where he had a 1.34 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273 as compared to his 1.29 WHIP and .253 opponent’s batting average in the pitcher-friendly Minute Maid Park. His first start of 2019 comes against a Nats team swing good bats right now as they are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .264 batting average along with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .833 in those games. The Over is 5-1-2 in the Nationals’ last 8 games when facing left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 4-1-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams — and the Over is 18-7-1 in the last 26 games between these NL East rivals. With both teams hitting the ball well right now, expect another high-scoring game. 10* MLB Friday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (955) and the Washington Nationals (956) listen both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Stephen Strasburg. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-21-19 |
Mets v. Cubs OVER 8.5 |
|
5-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (951) and the Chicago Cubs (952) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: Chicago (41-33) won the opening game of this series yesterday with a 7-4 victory over the Mets. New York (35-40) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 8 straight second games to a new series Over the Total. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 22 of their last 35 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They give the ball to Darvish who is 2-3 with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in fifteen starts this year. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 5.89 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in seven starts. Darvish is allowing more ground balls — but his strikeouts are down and his bases-on-balls are up. He is walking a career-high 13% of the batters he has faced — and his K%-BB% ratio differential of 13% is the lowest of his career. He is also experiencing a career-high Home Run-to-Fly Ball ratio of 22.2% which makes him pitching this afternoon in Wrigley Field a dangerous proposition. Darvish has a 6.75 ERA in his four starts in afternoon games this year with a 2.00 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .308. The Cubs have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Darvish on the hill. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .278 batting average along with a .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .807 over that span. New York has seen the Over go 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a loss — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Mets have now played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total — and the Over is 8-1-1 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Additionally, New York has played a whopping 20 of their last 23 road games Over the Total as a big underdog priced in the +175 to +250 price range. They counter with Vargas who is 3-3 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in eleven starts (twelve appearances). The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging for the left-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.20 and 5.14 moving forward. Vargas has done his best pitching at home where he has a 2.79 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .202 — but those numbers rise to a 4.78 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .279 in his six starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after last night’s game when playing in Wrigley Field. Expect another high scoring game this afternoon. 10* MLB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (951) and the Chicago Cubs (952) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-19 |
Mystics v. Aces UNDER 166.5 |
Top |
95-72 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Mystics (647) and the Las Vegas Aces (648). THE SITUATION: Washington (5-3) snapped a two-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 81-52 blowout upset victory at Los Angeles as a 1.5-point underdog. Las Vegas (4-3) has won their last two games with their 80-75 victory at Minnesota as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mystics won their game in LA on Tuesday based off the strength of their strong play on defense as they held the Sparks to just 28.8% shooting from the field. Washington stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. The Mystics have also played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. Washington has scored at least 71 points in their last seven games after beginning the year by scoring only 69 points — and they have then played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after scoring at least 70 points in four straight games. The Mystics have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Las Vegas has seen the Under go 6-0-1 in their last 7 games against teams from the Eastern Conference. The Under is also 4-0-1 in the Aces’ last 5 games after a point spread loss. Las Vegas won that game despite the Lynx making 42.6% from the field which was the Aces’ worst defensive effort in their last five games. Under former Detroit Pistons’ star Bill Laimbeer, this Las Vegas team has taken on a defense-first identity like his Bad Boys’ teams. They limit their visitors to just 34.2% shooting from the field on their home court which results in just 71.7 PPG. The extra days of rest should help the energy of this team on defense — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. The Under is also 6-0-1 in the Aces’ last 7 games at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as the favorite. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, Las Vegas has played 6 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 10 of their last 13 meetings Under the Total — and this includes these two teams playing five of their last six encounters Under the Total when playing in Las Vegas. Finally, these team trends are complemented by a historical WNBA angle that has been 72% effective since 1997. In games with the Total set at 140 or higher in the month of June, when the home team comes off a game where they won but did not cover the point spread as the favorite, these games then finished Under the Total in 52 of the last 72 situations where these conditions applied. 25* WNBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Mystics (647) and the Las Vegas Aces (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-19 |
Bermuda v. Costa Rica UNDER 4 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Bermuda (234245) and Costa Rica (234246). THE SITUATION: Bermuda (0-0-1) played in their first Gold Cup match ever on Sunday in what resulted in a 2-1 loss to Haiti. Costa Rica (1-0-0) won their opening match in this event on Sunday with their easy 4-0 win over Nicaragua. This match will be played on a true neutral field at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas which is a suburb of Dallas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Costa Rica had an easy time of it on Sunday against an overmatched Nicaraguan side — but they also benefitted from hosting that game in what was the first Gold Cup contest ever to be played outside the United States, Canada or Mexico. Their offensive display that demonstrated in that match probably said more about their comfort of playing on their home pitch than it did about their scoring prowess moving forward. They only had 15 shots in the match — so they were scoring goals at a very high-efficiency rate relative to the pressure they were applying. Costa Rica is one of the favorites to win this year’s tournament — and they are the dominant team in Group B. Los Ticos are led by an MLS-heavy defensive group that is quality tacticians on the international stage. The 6’5 defender, Kendall Watson, is key to their success with his size providing La Sele an aerial defensive presence as well as a strong tackler. Costa Rica allowed five goals in their three World Cup matches last year — but they were in a challenging group led by the powerful Brazil side along with two upstarts in Switzerland and Serbia. The problem for this team last summer was the lacking of a scoring punch as they scored only two goals (against the Swiss) after suffering two clean sheets in their first two matches. Gustavo Matosas is the new manager this year — but they entered this tournament with a discouraging 1-0-3 in the four friendlies under his leadership. They have scored only one goal in those four matches in a win against the defensive-minded Jamaican side. This side lacks creativity on the offensive end of the pitch right now. Expect a conservative game plan where veterans like Joel Campbell or Bryan Ruiz should eventually get Costa Rica on the scoreboard — but with 3 points already under their belts, so reaching the Quarterfinals is likely, there is no reason to open up their attack. Bermuda is unlikely to threaten with many scoring opportunities. Their offense was mostly stagnant against Haiti in what was their first ever match in a Golden Cup event. In fact, this is just the second international tournament for the Gombey Warriors in the history of the national program. Manager Kyle Lightbourne will likely have his team play a defensive-oriented scheme with the goal of just keeping the final score respectable with amateurs and semipros complementing their captain, Dante Leverock, on their backline. In going 3-0-1 in their four matches in the CONCACAF Nations League qualifiers, Bermuda only allowed four goals.
FINAL TAKE: Expect another clean sheet for Costa Rica with their strong defense of quality MLS players that have recent World Cup experience under their belts. I do not see Los Ticos scoring many goals in what should be an easy win for them. 10* CONCACAF Gold Cup Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the match between Bermuda (234245) and Costa Rica (234246). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-19 |
Angels v. Blue Jays OVER 10 |
|
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (917) and the Toronto Blue Jays (918) listing both starting pitchers Josh Suarez and Clayton Richard. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (38-37) has won the first three games of this series — and they have won seven of their last nine games — after their 11-6 victory over the Blue Jays last night. Toronto (26-48) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 10-4-1 in the Angels’ last 15 games after a win — and the Over is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And in their last 6 games on the road, the Over is 4-1-1. They give Suarez his fourth start of the season to further his 2-1 record along with a 4.50 ER and a 1.25 WHIP in 16 innings of work. The deeper sabermetrics for the rookie are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.09 and 5.57 moving forward (albeit from a small sample size). The right-hander has not finished six full innings in his three starts this year — so the Angels’ bullpen will play a big role tonight. That group has a 4.97 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP over their last seven games. Suarez and the bullpen face a Blue Jays team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Toronto has seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games. The Blue Jays have also seen the Over go 11-4-1 in their last 16 home games — and the Over is 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Richard who is 0-3 with a 7.52 ERA with a 1.77 WHIP in five starts in a season where he started the year on the disabled list. In three starts at home, Richard has seen his ERA rise to a 7.94 mark. The Toronto bullpen is not likely to offer much help either as they have a 7.22 ERA over their last seven games with a 1.78 WHIP over that span.
LAST TAKE: The Angels are also swinging good bats right now as they are scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .268 batting average along with a .327 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .851 over that span. The Over is 3-1-1 in LA’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (917) and the Toronto Blue Jays (918) listing both starting pitchers Josh Suarez and Clayton Richard. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-19 |
USA (W) v. Sweden (W) UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the United States (225937) and Sweden (225938). THE SITUATION: The United States (2-0-0) has won their first two matches in this World Cup with their 3-0 win over Chile last Saturday. Sweden (2-0-0) also has six points with two victories in their first two games with their 5-1 win over Thailand on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It might be very tempting for bettors to take the Over after Team USA racked up thirteen goals in their opening victory against Thailand. This Stars and Stripes team is loaded with scoring talent — and their midfielders and fullbacks like to play up the pitch. But a draw is enough of a result for the USA to win first place in Group F which is their immediate goal. This US team also needs to build skill and cohesion in their backline with two converted attackers being inserted into those two fullback positions by manager Jill Ellis. This contest against a good Swedish team is an opportunity to work on technical tactics. This team has dominated both their opponents as they have surrounded only three combined shots with neither opponent controlling possession for more than 30% of the contest. Team USA has not allowed a goal in their last six matches. They will face a Sweden team that is very familiar with their schemes and tactics. This will be the fourth meeting between these two national teams in the last five major international tournaments. The Blue and Yellow were triumphant in the last meeting between these two teams where the Swedes pulled the big upset in the Quarterfinals of the 2016 Olympics. Sweden’s conservative tactics where they play with a high back-line on the pitch while searching for opportunities to counter-attack is the anti-American scheme given their Stars and Stripes typical aggressiveness. The Blagurt have veterans in their middle field and a defensive line who have played in many of those matches with the Americans. Sweden also has an elite goalkeeper in Hedvi Lindhal playing in perhaps her last World Cup at 36-years old. Sweden has scored seven times in this tournament which is a bit of an aberration for this team. They scored only four goals in their four matches in the 2017 Euro Championship which ended in a disappointing loss in the Quarterfinals to the Netherlands. They scored just five times in their four matches in the 2015 World Cup where they lost in the Round of 16. They entered this tournament with just four goals in their previous four matches. But they surrendered a mere one goal in those final four matches — and they gave up only two goals in their eight World Cup Qualifying matches.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a tactical contest — especially with the stakes relatively low since both teams have clinched spots in the Knockout Stage. In the last five meetings between these two sides since 2013, all five matches saw no more than two combined goals scored. It was a nil-nil draw when these two teams faced off in the Group Stage of the 2015 World Cup. 25* Women’s World Cup Group Stage Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between the United States (225937) and Sweden (225938). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-19 |
New Zealand (W) v. Cameroon (W) UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-106 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Cameroon (225930) and New Zealand (225929). THE SITUATION: Cameroon (0-0-2) has lost their two World Cup contests after suffering a 3-1 setback to the Netherlands last Saturday. New Zealand (0-0-2) has also lost their first two matches in this tournament after their 2-0 loss to Canada on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cameroon has only scored one goal in their two matches after they lost to Canada by a 1-0 score. The Indomitable Lions are a team on the rise with 12 players back from the group that competed in the 2015 World Cup. This team’s defense can be shaky on the defensive end of the pitch — but allowing three goals to a potent Netherlands attack is not terribly surprising. Manager Alain Djeumfa has had his team embrace defensive tactics to compensate for this potential deficiency while banking on the counterattacking skills of speedy forwards like Gabrielle Onguene and Galla Enganamouit. But this approach has contributed to a toothless attack for the Indomitable Lions. They did not generate a shot on target in their opening match against Canada. And while their offensive activity improved against the Netherlands, they managed only 11 shots with just four on target. Controlling possession has been an issue as they had the ball for just 39% of their match with the Dutch after controlling possession in just 26% of their match against Canada. New Zealand may play on their front foot in this match like they often do when facing the inferior competition of the Oceania Football Confederation. The Football Ferns play solid defense on the grandest of international stages — and that should not go away in this contest. New Zealand has allowed only three goals against the Netherlands and Canada who enter this third match with two wins apiece. But the Kiwis have yet to score in this event. They did not manage a shot on target against Canada while managing just three shots on target against the Dutch. New Zealand has only generated seven total shots in their two matches. In the 2015 World Cup, the Football Ferns scored only twice in their three matches but only surrendered three goals. Cameroon made it to the Knockout Stage in 2015 on the strength of a 6-0 win over an overmatched Ecuador side — but it is their 1-0 loss to China in the Round of 16 that will likely be a harbinger as to how this match will be played out.
FINAL TAKE: One side earning a clean sheet in this match is pretty high when considering that New Zealand has seen at least one side go scoreless in nine of their last ten matches. Eight of the last ten matches played by the Kiwis have seen less than three combined goals scored. Both teams need a victory — and then help with goal differential — to advance to the Knockout Stage. However, since a draw helps neither side — I expect the first team to score in this match will then park the bus in back to do everything they can to preserve that lead. 25* World Cup Group E Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Cameroon (225930) and New Zealand (225929). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-20-19 |
Canada (W) v. Netherlands (W) UNDER 2.5 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-139 |
0 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225934) and Canada (225933). THE SITUATION: The Netherlands (2-0-0) won their second straight match in this World Cup with their 3-1 win over Cameroon. Canada (2-0-0) has also won their first two matches in this tournament with their 2-0 win over New Zealand on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orange Lionesses eked out a 1-0 over New Zealand in their opening match in this event — so they have conceded only one goal in their first two matches. While defense appears to be the weak link for this team that won the 2017 Euro Championship as the host nation, the Dutch have secured four clean sheets in their last five matches. In the 2015 World Cup where they lost to Japan in the Round of 16, the Netherlands scored only three goals in their four matches while conceding just four goals. Three of those four matches that year saw two combined goals or less — including a 1-1 draw with Canada in the Group Stage. Canada has enjoyed two clean sheets in this tournament after they opened Group Stage play with a 1-0 win over Cameroon. Remarkably, the Reds have yet to allow either of their two opponents to have a shot attempt on target. Led by center back Kadehisha Buchanan, the Canucks have an outstanding defense. But these defensive tactics make them too dependent at times on the creativity up front of their 36-year old captain, Christine Sinclair. In their nine matches this year before this tournament, Canada scored only eight combined goals. But the Reds have allowed only one goal in their last ten matches — and less than three combined goals have been scored in eight of their last ten contests.
FINAL TAKE: With both these teams already clinched spots in the Knockout State, the managers of both these teams may decide to put their foot off the proverbial accelerator to save energy for the Round of 16. Expect a conservative game from both sides. 10* World Cup Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between the Netherlands (225934) and Canada (225933). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-19-19 |
White Sox v. Cubs UNDER 7 |
Top |
3-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (979) and the Chicago Cubs (980) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: The White Sox (35-36) won the opening game of this series last night with their 3-1 victory. The White Sox have won four of their last six games while the Cubs (39-33) has lost four of their last five contests.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The White Sox have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in their last game. And while the White Sox have not committed an error in three straight games, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after not committing an error in two straight contests. This team has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is a decisive 46-21-3 in their last 70 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Giolito who is 10-1 with a 2.22 ERA and a WHIP of 0.95 in thirteen starts. The young phenom has allowed only one earned run over his last three starts for a minuscule 0.43 ERA along with a 0.76 WHIP over 21 innings. The right-hander has been particularly effective on the road where he owns a 1.48 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .156 in six starts. The White Sox have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total with Giolito on the hill — and this includes them playing their last 4 road games Under the Total with him on the hill. The White Sox have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Giolito looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Cubs team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a low .223 batting average along with a .270 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .635.
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06-18-19 |
Mystics v. Sparks UNDER 166.5 |
|
81-52 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Mystics (639) and the Los Angeles Sparks (640). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-3) has lost two straight games after their 74-71 upset loss at home to Seattle as a 9.5-point favorite last Friday. Los Angeles (4-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday when they were upset at home to New York by a 98-92 score as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mystics enjoyed a 13-point lead in the 4th quarter in their first opportunity to avenge the three-game sweep they suffered to Seattle in the WNBA Finals last September. But they only scored 8 points in the final quarter to blow that game. Washington shot only 34.8% from the field in that game — and now they go on the road where they are making just 41% of their shots. The Mystics have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Washington has also played 19 of their last 25 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The Mystics have scored at least 71 points in six straight games — but they have then played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after scoring at least 70 points in four straight games. Washington needs to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court after allowing their last five opponents to make at least 45.8% of their shots. The Mystics have played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least three straight opponents to shoot better than 42% from the field. Additionally, Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Western Conference foes. Los Angeles has played 6 straight games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss. The Sparks have also played 8 straight games at home Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after a point spread loss. LA has also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Sparks have scored 85 points in three straight games — but they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in three straight contests. They stay at home where they have played a decisive 40 of their last 58 games Under the Total on their home court. They are holding their visitors to just 38.5% shooting when playing at home this season — and they will be anxious to play better on defense after allowing New York to make 47.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive of their season.
FINAL TAKE: The Sparks look to see the debut of Candace Parker back on the court tonight after she has missed the first seven games of the season with a hamstring injury. While she is a force on offense, she also helps Los Angeles on the defensive end of the court. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* WNBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Mystics (639) and the Los Angeles Sparks (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-18-19 |
Australia (W) v. Jamaica (W) OVER 4.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Australia (225913) and Jamaica (225914). THE SITUATION: Australia (1-0-1) earned their three points last Thursday with a 3-2 victory over Brazil. Jamaica (0-0-2) lost their second straight match in the World Cup by losing to Italy by a 5-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Australia found themselves in dire straits as they trailed the Brazilians by a 2-0 score — and that came after suffering a 2-1 upset loss to Italy in their opening match. But the Matildas scored a late goal in extra time of the first half to get on the board and they completed their three-goal rally by scoring twice in the second half to stun the Selecao. That comeback victory should trigger confidence in this Australian team that limped into the World Cup with two straight losses. Expectations have never been higher for this Matildas team that has reached the Quarterfinals in the last three World Cups as well as the 2016 Olympics. This is probably the best roster this national team has ever assembled. But a 5-3 loss to the USA on May 3rd followed by a 3-0 loss to the Netherlands on June 1st left some questions on the table for this group. Australia is loaded with scoring firepower led by their 25-year old captain, Sam Kerr, who is one of the best goal scorers in the world. New manager Ante Milicic (who took over amidst scandal from the previous dirtbag manager of the Matildas) implemented a high-risk/high-reward pressing system a la the schemes used by Liverpool and Manchester City in the English Premier League. The goal is to create more scoring opportunities to take better advantage of their elite talent of Kerr and other players like forward Caitlin Foord. It worked for a bit against the US as those tactics created a 2-1 lead in that April friendly match. But the risk of pushing forward on the attack with left and right backs, Steph Catley and Ellie Carpenter, jetting up the pitch to support their scoring opportunities is that they become very vulnerable to counter attacks. Team USA burned them by rallying to score three goals to win that match before the Dutch scored three more goals against them in that last friendly. Australia has scored and conceded four goals in their first two World Cup matches. With three points and tied with Brazil for second place in Group C play, goal differential may play a critical role as a tie-breaker. That means that the Matildas are highly likely to keep their foot on the proverbial accelerator in this match as they look to pile on the goals. But this strategy risks them conceding goals to the Reggae Girlz. Frankly, this Jamaica team is happy to be competing at this event after seeing their program dormant from 2008 to 2014. The daughter of Bob Marley, Cedella Marley, infused the national team with money to jumpstart the women’s team who then qualified for this World Cup with their third place finish in last year’s CONCACAF Gold Cup qualifier. The Reggae Girlz are young and inexperienced with seven of their players under the age of 22. But they are fast and happy to take their chances on the counter-attack. They have conceded eight goals in their two matches — but they have dynamic goal scorers led by Khadijah “Bunny” Shaw. The former Tennessee Volunteer has 31 goals in 23 caps for the national team and is an imposing presence on the pitch with her 5’11 frame. Jamaica had scored nine goals in their last four friendlies before this tournament — but they also allowed seven goals in those four matches.
FINAL TAKE: Australia should win this match easily as they press to score as many goals as they can to help their positioning. Winning Group C remains possible if Brazil defeats an undefeated Italian team — but they will need to plenty of goals to seize the goal differential tie-breaker. Jamaica is leaky on their back end — but I will not be surprised if they leave this match relatively happy by scoring their first ever goal in World Cup competition. 25* Women’s World Cup Group C Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Australia (225913) and Jamaica (225914). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-19 |
Brazil (W) v. Italy (W) OVER 2.5 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-136 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Brazil (225917) and Italy (225918). THE SITUATION: Brazil (1-0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 3-2 loss to Australia last Thursday in their second World Cup match. Italy (2-0-0) remained undefeated in this tournament on Friday when they crushed Jamaica by a 5-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Italy has been one of the surprises of the tournament after they upset Australia by a 2-1 score in their opening match. The Azzurre have scored seven goals in their first two matches while showing nice balance with their offensive attack. Italy has three players in Barbara Bonansea, Cristiana Girelli, and Aurora Galli who have already scored multiple goals in this event. In their last four friendlies before this tournament started, Italy scored nine goals. Manager Milena Bertolini has implemented a free-flowing style of play for this team that is playing their first World Cup in twenty years. But considering the prominent role that soccer plays in that nation, it should not be much of a surprise that the Blues have plenty of talent available to them. Entering this tournament, it looked like Italy would be a defensive-oriented team as they conceded only four goals in their eight World Cup qualifying matches. But perhaps the writing was on the wall for their style of play this summer given the six goals they allowed in those last four friendlies. Italy has seen both teams score in six of their last seven matches with their only clean sheet coming against a minnow side in Jamaica. Brazil is fighting their lives to reach the Knockout Stage — so they will likely play very aggressively this afternoon as they look to score goals. The Selecao have scored five goals in their first two matches — but their defense was exposed last week with Australia rallying from a 2-0 deficit to win that match by scoring three goals in just over 45 minutes of play. This is the last hurrah for the golden generation for the Brazilian national team — and they may be too old and slow for younger opponents. The Selecao has registered only one clean sheet in their last thirteen matches with that also being against the Reggae Girlz. Brazil may not have the services of their leader, Marta, who missed the first match and then left the match with the Aussies at halftime after suffering a knock. Cristiane has stepped up in her absence by scoring four goals so far in this event.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams prefer to play on their front foot to push the pace of play. With Brazil needing goals to help in the tie-breaker, expect a high scoring match. 10* Women’s World Cup Tuesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Brazil (225917) and Italy (225918). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-19 |
Mets v. Braves OVER 9 |
Top |
3-12 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (953) and the Atlanta Braves (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Mike Soroka. THE SITUATION: New York (34-37) has lost three of their last four games with their 4-3 loss to St. Louis yesterday. Atlanta (42-30) has won nine of their last ten games after they crushed Philadelphia yesterday by a 15-1 score on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 10-1-1 in the Braves’ last 12 games after a win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Atlanta’s bullpen has pitched 9 1/3 combined innings over their last two games — and they have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total when their bullpen has logged in at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. The Over is also 12-3-1 in the Braves’ last 16 home games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Soroka who is 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP in eleven starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not bullish on the rookie right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.93 and 3.59 moving forward. Soroka opened the season with an unsustainable low Batting Average for the Balls he Allowed Into Play (BABIP) and Home Run to Fly Ball rate — and the that he is still leaving 77.6% of the runners left on base when retiring the side is well above the league average. But the right-hander has seen the Regression Gods already visit him a few times this month as he has a 4.12 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP over his last three starts while striking out only 14 batters in 19 2/3 innings of work. Soroka has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.03 mark along with a 1.18 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in five starts as compared to his filthy 1.11 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and .154 opponent’s batting average on the road. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Soroka facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 games after a loss. Additionally, New York has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 28 of their last 42 games Over the Total in night games. They counter with Wheeler who is 5-4 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he has a 5.48 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in seven starts. The Over is 7-3-2 in the Mets’ last 12 road games with Wheeler on the mound. The Over is also 6-0-2 in New York’s last 8 games with Wheeler pitching on five days of rest. He faces a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 9.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .342 batting average along with a .402 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 1.056 over that span. Atlanta is scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home — and the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Braves have scored at least nine runs twelve times this season. They face a pitcher in Wheeler who has already surrendered 13 home runs this season. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (953) and the Atlanta Braves (954) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Mike Soroka. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-19 |
Nicaragua v. Costa Rica UNDER 3 |
Top |
0-4 |
Loss |
-101 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Nicaragua (234213) and Costa Rica (234214). THE SITUATION: Costa Rica (0-0-0) the first CONCACAF Gold Cup match ever to be played on their home soil. Los Ticos finished 0-1-2 in their three Group Stage matches in last summer’s World Cup. Costa Rica reached the Semifinals of the 2017 Gold Cup before losing to the USMNT. Nicaragua (0-0-0) plays in their first international tournament sine that 2017 Gold Cup where they lost all three of their matches in Group Stage play.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Costa Rica is one of the favorites to win this year’s tournament — and they are the dominant team in Group B. Los Ticos are led by an MLS-heavy defensive group that is quality tacticians on the international stage. The 6’5 defender, Kendall Watson, is key to their success with his size providing La Sele an aerial defensive presence as well as a strong tackler. Costa Rica allowed five goals in their three World Cup matches last year — but they were in a challenging group led by the powerful Brazil side along with two upstarts in Switzerland and Serbia. The problem for this team last summer was the lacking of a scoring punch as they scored only two goals (against the Swiss) after suffering two clean sheets in their first two matches. Gustavo Matosas is the new manager this year — but they are just 1-0-3 in the four friendlies under his leadership. They have scored only one goal in those four matches in a win against the defensive-minded Jamaican side. This side lacks creativity on the offensive end of the pitch right now. Getting too cute now would be a disaster for Los Ticos against an overmatched Nicaraguan side — especially when playing at home. Expect a conservative game plan where veterans like Joel Campbell or Bryan Ruiz should eventually get Costa Rica on the scoreboard. Nicaragua is unlikely to threaten with many scoring opportunities. The Pinoleros privilege defensive tactics with the hope that their captain, Juan Barrera, can find scoring opportunities in the counter-attack. Nicaragua has scored only one goal in their six matches ever played in Gold Cup competitions. And in the twelve previous meetings between these two nations, the Pinoleros have scored only eight times. All three of their matches in the 2017 Gold Cup did not see more than three combined goals scored. In their last five matches, Nicaragua has scored only four times with two of those goals occurring in a 2-2 draw with Bolivia back on March 3rd in a friendly.
FINAL TAKE: Costa Rica will not have their veteran superstar goalkeeper, Keylor Navas, this summer with his status with Real Madrid up in the air. Los Ticos did not have Navas in the 2017 Gold Cup either but that did not slow this side down against North American competition. A clean sheet is highly likely for Costa Rica tonight — but they are not likely to score more than two goals (and certainly not three goals which would Push the most common Total of 3). 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group B Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Nicaragua (234213) and Costa Rica (234214). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-19 |
Aces v. Lynx UNDER 160.5 |
|
80-75 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Aces (637) and the Minnesota Lynx (638). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-3) enters this game looking to build off their 100-65 blowout victory over New York on Friday as a 13-point favorite at home. Minnesota (4-4) has lost three straight games after their 85-81 loss at home to Connecticut as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aces have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. With LeBron James, James Harden, and Chris Paul watching courtside Las Vegas made 67% of their shots in the first half as they put on a show — and the 54.1% field goal percentage they ended the game with was their highest mark of the season. But the Aces go back on the road where they are shooting just 42.0% from the field. Las Vegas has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road. The Under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when playing with one day of rest. Despite their offensive explosion on Friday, the calling card for head coach Bill Laimbeer’s team is defense — just like his old Pistons’ team — as the Aces have held their last five opponents to only 37.7% shooting. Las Vegas has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total as the favorite. Minnesota has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Lynx have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last contest. Minnesota has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. They made only 43.3% of their shots in their loss on Friday — but that was still tied for their best shooting mark in their last four games. The Lynx will be looking to play better on defense after allowing Connecticut to make 50% of their shots. Minnesota should play better on the defensive end of the court tonight where they limit their opponents to 41.4% shooting which translates into 72.4 PPG. The Lynx have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends are supported by a historical angle that has been 69% effective since 1997. Las Vegas is outscoring their opponents by +8.9 PPG — and in games with the Total set at 140 or higher, when the road team is outscoring their opponents by at least +6.0 PPG and they are facing a home team that comes off a narrow loss by 5 points or less, these games finished Under the Total in 50 of these last 73 situations. 10* WNBA Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Aces (637) and the Minnesota Lynx (638). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-19 |
Mariners v. A's OVER 9 |
Top |
2-11 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (977) and the Oakland A’s (978) listing both starting pitchers Gerson Bautista and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: Seattle (30-43) won the opening game of this series last night by a 9-2 score over Oakland (35-35) in Oakland Alameda County Coliseum.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win — and the Over is also 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They stay on the road where the Over is a decisive 34-16-1 in their last 51 games — and the Over is also 11-3-1 in Seattle’s last 15 road games against teams with a losing record. And while the A’s are 18-14 at home this year, the Mariners have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Seattle has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total in the month of June — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow AL West foes. They will be using an opening tonight with Bautista taking the hill with his 5.40 ERA and 2.40 WHIP in just 3 1/3 innings of work. Bautista had a 12.46 ERA with a 3.00 WHIP in 4 1/3 innings of work last season. Let’s put it this way: although Bautista has appeared in only eight games in his major league career since debuting last year, he has allowed at least one run in six of those contests. So when Wade LeBlanc enters this game in the second inning, there is a good chance that the A’s will already have runs on the board. The left-hander has a 3-2 record this year with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in six starts/eight appearances this season. LeBlanc was not quite as effective on the road last year where he had a 1.24 WHIP with a .255 opponent’s batting average as opposed to his 1.12 WHIP and .247 opponent’s batting average at home. LeBlanc has struggled under the lights this year with a 6.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .284 opponent’s batting average in three starts/four appearances at night. Bautista and then LeBlanc will be facing an A’s team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Seattle bullpen will not offer much support either was LeBlanc is pulled. The Mariners’ pen has a 6.32 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP on the road — and they have a 7.63 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in their last seven games. Oakland has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. The A’s have also played 18 of their last 26 home games Over the Total with the number in the 9 to 9.5 range. Oakland has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against AL West foes. They counter with Montas who is 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirteen starts. The 26-year old is enjoying a breakout season — but the sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.78 and 3.55 respectively moving forward based off his deeper peripheral numbers. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 3.54 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and .255 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 2.44 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last year where he had a 4.35 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and .291 opponent’s batting average at home as opposed to his 3.44 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .289 opponent’s batting average on the road. The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Montas pitching with the Total set at 9 to 9.5. Montas last pitched on June 9th — and Oakland has played 7 straight games Over the Total when he is starting with five days of rest. He faces a hot-hitting Mariners lineup that is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .265 batting average, .337 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .850 over that span. The Over is also 33-16-2 in Seattle’s last 51 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 10 of their last 14 contests Over the Total. Expect another higher scoring game between these two clubs. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (977) and the Oakland A’s (978) listing both starting pitchers Gerson Bautista and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-19 |
Padres v. Rockies OVER 11 |
|
8-14 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (961) and the Colorado Rockies (962) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and German Marquez. THE SITUATION: San Diego (34-36) won the opening game of this series last night by a 16-12 score that required 12 innings. The Padres snapped a five-game losing streak with that victory. Colorado (36-33) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-2-1 in San Diego’s last 7 games after a win — and the Over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 6-1-2 in their last 9 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Padres have also played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Lauer who is 5-5 with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in five stats. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.69 and 4.72 moving forward this season. The left-hander has been quite good at home in Petco Park where he has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and .244 opponent’s batting average — but those numbers skyrocket to a 6.84 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average of .263 in five starts on the road. Coors Field has been a house of horrors for Lauer as well — he has a 21.00 ERA with a 3.33 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .429 in two appearances covering 6 innings in his career pitching in that thin air against the Rockies. The Over is 4-0-2 in Colorado’s last 6 games on the road with Lauer on the hill. He faces a Rockies team that is scoring 6.5 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .302 batting average along with a .369 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .896. Colorado has played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total after allowing at least nine runs in their last game. The Rockies have played 8 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with Marquez who is 6-3 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander struggles at home where he has a 5.06 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .303 in eight starts as camped to his 3.33 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Marquez had a nice 2.95 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and .203 opponent’s batting average on the road but a 4.74 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and .284 opponent’s batting average at home in Coors Field. Colorado has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Marquez on the mound facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Padres team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. San Diego has seen the Over go 11-4-2 in their last 17 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams. 10* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (961) and the Colorado Rockies (962) listing both starting pitchers Eric Lauer and German Marquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-19 |
Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 211.5 |
|
114-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
45 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (531) and the Golden State Warriors (532). THE SITUATION: Golden State (71-32) stayed alive on Monday in Game Five of the NBA Finals by pulling off a 106-105 win over the Raptors. The Warriors return home to the Oracle Center for one final game before they move to their new arena next season. Toronto (73-32) hopes to close out this series and hoist the NBA Championship trophy in this game.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors extended this series to six games in large measure to the contributions of Kevin Durant who nailed all three of his 3-pointers en route to 11 points in the 12 minutes he played before suffering his Achilles’ injury that will keep him out well into next season. Golden State scored 34 points in the first quarter on Monday — and their 46.3% shooting percentage overall for that game was tied for the best shooting mark in their last five games. But the Warriors managed only 72 points in the remaining three quarters without Durant including just 44 points in the second half. Golden State has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road by three points or less. The Warriors have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. This Golden State team is making only 44.0% of their shots over their last five games which has resulted in just 105.0 PPG. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when trailing in a playoff series — and they have played 9 of their last 11 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination. Toronto has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total with the opportunity to close the series out. The Raptors have also played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss. The 46.3% shooting they allowed the Warriors to make was tied for the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed in nine games. Defense has been the calling card for this team this postseason as their playoff opponents are making just 42.2% of their shots. But shooting has become an issue for this team as they followed up their 41.9% shooting percentage in Game Four of this series by making just 44.7% of their shots on Monday. The Raptors made only 8 of their 32 shots (25%) from behind the arc. Now this team goes back on the road where the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games. Toronto is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games in the playoffs — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. And in their last 9 games when playing with two days of rest, the Raptors have played 7 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto scored 27 points in the fourth quarter on Monday — but their half-court offense stalled in the waning moments of that game as they blew their late lead. Nerves seemed to play a role in this failed execution — and that will remain an issue in Game Six. The Raptors are still taking too much time to execute their half-court offense which is leaving them reliant on poor shots. Expect another low-scoring game. 10* NBA Toronto-Golden State ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (531) and the Golden State Warriors (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-19 |
Padres v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 |
|
6-9 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Colorado Rockies (958) listing both starting pitchers Matt Strahm and Jon Gray. THE SITUATION: Colorado enters this season coming off a 10-1 loss at home to the Cubs yesterday. San Diego (33-35) has lost four in a row after they lost in San Francisco to the Giants yesterday by a 4-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockies have seen the Under go 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a loss — and they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after not scoring more than one run in their last game. Colorado has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Gray who is 5-5 with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander is very comfortable pitching at home in Coors Field where he has a 3.00 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in five starts — and he has a 1.88 ERA in his last four home starts. He finds success in the thin air because he does a great job of inducing ground balls — his Ground Ball rate is at 48% this season. The Rockies have played 5 straight home games Under the Total with Gray on the hill — and they have played 14 of their last 18 home games Under the Total with Gray pitching with the Total set at 10 or higher. Gray also loves pitching against the Padres. In his seventeen career starts against San Diego, Gray is 9-3 with a 2.70 ERA. Colorado has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Gray facing San Diego. Gray should have another great performance tonight against this Padres team that is scoring just 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting just .211 over that span with a .287 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .617. San Diego has played 7 straight games Under the Total after suffering three straight losses. The Under is also 15-5-4 in the Padres’ last 24 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They stay on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games — and the Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games on the road again teams with a winning record. They counter with Strahm who is 2-5 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in eleven starts. The left-hander is coming off the disabled list after serving the minimum number of days after being struck in the ribcage with a line drive — so he should be good-to-go. Strahm has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.73 ERA in six starts with an opponent’s batting average of .248 as compared to his 5.60 ERA and a .260 batting average at home. Strahm had a 1.67 ERA on the road last year which was better than his 2.48 ERA when pitching at home in Petco Park. The Under is 7-1-2 in the Padres’ last 10 road games with Strahm on the hill. He faces a Rockies’ team that has seen their bats cool off as of late. Colorado is only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .240 batting average along with a .287 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .662 over that span. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 games when they are facing left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Colorado’s Coors Field. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Colorado Rockies (958) listing both starting pitchers Matt Strahm and Jon Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-19 |
Blues v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (13) and the Boston Bruins (14). THE SITUATION: Boston (64-32-9) forced a climactic seventh game of the Stanley Cup Finals on Sunday with their 5-1 victory over St. Louis (60-38-9). The Bruins return home to TD Garden for the decisive final game of this series and the 2018-19 NHL season.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston got outstanding play once again from goalie Tuukka Rask who stopped 28 of the 29 shots he faced while keeping his team competitive in the first period when the Blues enjoyed two Power Play chances. Rask entered this series with a 1.84 Goals-Against-Average along with a .942 save percentage in this postseason — and while some regression was expected, he still sports a strong .924 save percentage in the first six games of this series while allowing only 13 goals in those contests. This is Rask’s sixth career Game Seven start in the playoffs along with his second Game Seven in the Stanley Cup Finals — so the moment should not be too big for him. Rask is being helped by outstanding play from the Bruins’ top two defensive pairings who have thwarted 17 of the 18 Power Play chances St. Louis has had in this series. Expect continued outstanding defensive play from this Bruins team that has played 29 of their last 47 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in five days. Boston snapped a two-game losing streak to win Game Six — and they have played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three contests. And while the Bruins scored five goals on Sunday (with one being an empty netter), they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing at home after finding the back of the net at least five times in their last game. St. Louis has played 27 of their last 43 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one goal in their last game. The Bruins entered the third period with just a one-goal lead before exploding for four goals to force this seventh game. The Blues have played a decisive 32 of their last 52 games on the road Under the Total after allowing at least two goals in the third period in their last game. Goalie Jordan Binnington surrendered four goals in Game Six — but he still has a nice .925 save percentage by allowing only seven goals in the last three games of this series even after Sunday. Binnington has been consistently outstanding when attempting to lead his team after a loss this season. In his nine starts after a Blues lost in this postseason, Binnington has responded with a 1.86 GAA along with a .941 save percentage while allowing just sixteen goals in those nine contests. This playoff success continued his strong play after losses in the regular season where Binnington posted a .935 save percentage while surrounding only 10 goals in the six games he started after a loss. Wednesday’s Game Seven will be St. Louis’ fifth game in the last fourteen days — and they have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total when playing no more than five games in the last fourteen days. Additionally, the Blues have played 6 of their last 9 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied — and they have played 14 of their last 21 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four goals. With this being a Game Seven in the Stanley Cup Finals, the referees will be a bit more conservative in calling penalties as they will be reticent to have their calls play a critical role — this is especially true after the controversial no-call on a Blues’ trip in the third period of Game Five of this series that played a significant role in St. Louis winning that game. And don’t forget the controversy the league offices felt with San Jose’s three-goal comeback in Game Seven of their series with Vegas stemming from a controversial five-minute major penalty called in that game. Lastly, seventh games tend to see both teams play a bit more cautiously as they hope to not put their opponent on the Power Play. While three of the games in this series have gone Over the Total, two of those final scores came from late empty net goals (which are rarer than they have appeared in this series). Outside the third period on Sunday and the first periods of the first three games of this series, this has been a very low scoring series. Look for this final game to follow those trends. 25* NHL Playoffs Game Seven A-List O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (13) and the Boston Bruins (14). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-19 |
Norway (W) v. France (W) UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-55.5 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Norway (225857) and France (225858). THE SITUATION: Norway (1-0-0) won their opening match of the 2019 Women’s World Cup with a dominant 3-0 victory over Nigeria on Saturday. France (1-0-0) began this tournament as the host nation last Friday with a 4-0 victory over South Korea.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: With both sides securing sizable victories in their opening match, the significance of this match lightens a bit since advancement to the Round of 16 Knockout Stage should be in pretty good shape. Given that, both teams may play a bit more cautiously since a big loss hurts their goal differential which could become an issue if they either team would not secure at least the one point with a draw in their final Group Stage match. France is more a reserved side than the group that lost in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 World Cup in Canada. Roster turnover explains most of that with a previous generation of goal scorers retiring. Les Blues are one of the top favorites to win this event not only because they are the host nation but because their national squad is dominated by the French professional club in Lyon that is — by far — the best women’s professional team in the world. But Lyon’s best attackers play for other national teams. However, the core group of the French defense are Lyon starters in Wendie Renard, Griddle MBock Bathy, and Amel Majri along with their keeper, Sarah Bouhaddi. National teams that have a cluster of starters who play together on their national team gives them an edge in cohesion — so this should be a very tight defensive group this summer. Renard scored twice in their win over South Korea — but don’t expect a defender to score goals on a regular basis for this team. France tends to play lower scoring matches against the better teams in the world. Their last loss was in a friendly to Germany by a 1-0 score back on February 28th. They defeated Australia by a 2-0 score on October 5th while also beating 1-0 win over Canada on April 9th. Les Bleus did lose to Team USA by a 3-1 score on January 9th in a friendly — but that match may have sent a message to manager Corinne Diacre. Even playing on their home soil, the French probably cannot get into a shootout with the Americans. On the heels of the Stars and Stripes 13-0 win over Thailand yesterday, this may be a match where Diacre wants her side to focus on defensive tactics and counter-attacks. In their 2015 World Cup run where they lost on the Quarterfinals to England via Penalty Kicks after a 1-1 score in extra time, France had their clean sheets and three of their five matches result on less than three combined goals (after squashes against Mexico and South Korea). Norway manager Martin Sjogren has already indicated that she will have her side play more cautiously in this contest as they look to neutralize a French attack and look to score on counters. The Grasshoppers are without their best attacker — and probably the best female player in the world — in Ada Hegerberg — who is boycotting her participation with her national team that continues to treat women’s soccer with second class status as compared to their middling men’s side. Norway had three goals against a Nigeria team that is shaky on defense — but that final goal was an Own Goal by the African Cup champs. Norway remains a solid team without Hegerberg who can still make a deep run in the Knockout Stage if they develop confidence and cohesion. They also have cohesion in their backline with Chelsea teammates Maren Mjelde and Maria Thorisdottir — and they are joined by a potential superstar in Graham Hansen who has something to prove after a knee injury kept her out of the 2015 World Cup. Even a 1-0 loss to Les Bleus could be a psychological victory for the Grasshoppers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have not seen more than two combined goals scored in their last seven head-to-head meetings. Expect a low scoring match — especially given the situation they have given the early events of this tournament. 25* Women’s World Cup Group A Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Norway (225857) and France (225858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-11-19 |
Pirates v. Braves OVER 9.5 |
|
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Mike Foltynewicz. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (37-29) have won four games in a row after winning the opening game of this series yesterday with their 13-7 victory over the Pirates. Pittsburgh (30-35) has lost four straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has seen the Over go 21-8-1 in their last 30 games after scoring at least five runs — and the Over is also 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Over is 7-3-1 in the Pirates’ last 11 games on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Archer who is 3-5 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in ten starts. Archer faced off against the Braves with Foltynewicz on the hill in his last start back on June 6th where he led his team to a 6-1 win — back that game was in Pittsburgh. The inconsistent right-hander has been a house of horrors on the road where he sees his ERA and WHIP skyrocket to 7.98 and 1.57 marks in three starts. The Pirates have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total with Archer pitching as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. He faces a hot-hitting Braves team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .259 batting average along with a .344 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .846 over that span. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 5-1-1 in the Braves’ last 7 games after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Atlanta won their previous game on Sunday with a 7-6 win over Miami — and they have played a decisive 24 of their last 29 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where they scored and allowed at least six runs. Additionally, the Over is 5-0-1 in the Marlins’ last 6 games at home — and the Over is 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Foltynewicz who is 1-5 with a 5.89 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in eight starts. The right-hander has really struggled at home in Suntrust Park where he sees his ERA rise to a 7.18 mark while posting a 1.33 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in five starts. The Over is 4-1-1 in the Braves’ last 6 home games with Foltynewicz on the hill. While Foltynewicz had seen his results improve with an uptick in velocity of his fastball, he has allowed eight earned runs in his last two starts for a 6.55 ERA along with a 1.27 WHIP. He faces a better-hitting Pirates team that is scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with a .267 batting average, .310 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .776.
FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has seen the Over go 12-5-1 in their last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Mike Foltynewicz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-11-19 |
Blue Jays v. Orioles UNDER 9 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (961) and the Baltimore Orioles (962) listing both starting pitchers Trent Thornton and John Means. THE SITUATION: Toronto (23-42) begins this series having lost four straight games after their 8-2 loss on Sunday to Arizona. Baltimore (20-45) has lost four of their last five games with their 4-0 loss in Houston on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jays’ offense is struggling after getting shutout once and plating only four runners in their three-game series with the Diamondbacks over the weekend. They generated only one base-hit in their sixteen at-bats with Runners In Scoring Position over those three games — and they are hitting just .161 over their last 112 at-bats with RISP. Toronto goes on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number set at 9 to 9.5. The Blue Jays have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 range. Additionally, Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They give the ball to Thornton who is 1-4 with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in thirteen starts this season. The rookie is striking out 24.8% of the batters he has faced — and he is averaging a robust 9.8 batters per 9 innings of work. Walks have been his biggest weakness — but the right-hander has been much better on the road where he has a 3.21 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .192 in six starts as compared to his 6.39 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .272 opponent’s batting average in seven starts at home. The Blue Jays have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Thornton on the hill. Thornton should pitch well against this Orioles lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting .217 over that span with a .264 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .638. Baltimore has played 4 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Baltimore has played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Orioles have played five straight games where neither team scored more than four runs — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games where neither team scored more than four runs. Baltimore returns home to Charm City where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. The Orioles have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They counter with Means who is 5-4 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.07 WHP in ten starts (fourteen appearances). The right-hander has maintained a 2.77 ERA in his last ten appearances since April 14th. The left-hander has been remarkably consistent as he has not allowed more than three earned runs in nine of his ten starts including his last six starts. Means has also been more effective at home where he enjoys a 1.53 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .173 in five starts (seven appearances) as compared to his 3.73 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Orioles have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Means on the mound — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with Means pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He faces a Blue Jays team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over that span with a .214 batting average, .271 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .642 over that span. The Under is 3-1-1 in Toronto’s last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 35-15-1 in their last 51 meetings — and this includes the Under going 14-6-1 in the last 21 contests between these AL East rivals when playing in Camden Yards. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (961) and the Baltimore Orioles (962) listing both starting pitchers Trent Thornton and John Means. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-10-19 |
Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 214 |
Top |
106-105 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (529) and the Toronto Raptors (530). THE SITUATION: Toronto (73-31) took a commanding 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals on Friday with their 105-92 upset victory over the Warriors. The Raptors host Game Five as they look to lift the NBA championship trophy with Golden State (70-32) looking to extend this series to a sixth game back home in the Oracle Center.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raptors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. And while Toronto has covered the point spread in seven of their last eight games, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. The Raptors have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Toronto’s outstanding defense has been their calling card this postseason. They have held their playoff opponents to just 42.0% shooting from the field — and they have limited their last five opponents to just 42.8% shooting. The Raptors won Game Four despite making just 41.9% of their shots from the field in a shooting effort that I expected to see from them in Game Three where instead they shot a surprising 52.4% from the field. Now with the opportunity to close out this series and win the championship on their home court, I expect this Toronto team to be a bit nervy with their shooting. The Raptors have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total in playoff games where they have the opportunity to close out the series. Golden State has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when trailing in a playoff series — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when facing elimination in the playoffs. The Warriors should play tough on the defensive end of the court with their season on the line. This is a team that usually plays better on defense when on the road — they have held their home hosts to just 43.8% shooting this season which is a few notches below the 44.4% opponent’s field goal percentage for the year overall. Golden State has seen the Under go 33-16-2 in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Warriors suffered upset losses in their last two games at home as a favorite in this series, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two in a row— and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after suffering two straight upsets in a row. The team may decide to play Kevin Durant with it being an elimination game. While they certainly need his offensive skills after making only 44.2% of their shots over their last five games, it remains a question how effective he will be if not at 100% and rusty from all the time he has been away from the court. And don’t underestimate Durant’s importance on the defensive end of the court as he offers the Warriors a big body to potentially slow down Kawhi Leonard. If Durant plays, the Golden State offense tends to slow down in pace as well with him looking to generate one-on-one scoring chances. The other big update for this Warriors team was the surprise return of Kevon Looney who had previously been declared out for the remainder of this playoff series by the team. One of the reasons we had the Over in Game Four was that Looney’s absence likely ensured more playing time for Boogie Cousins who is helpful on offense but a liability on defense. Looney’s ability to take the court helps the Golden State defense while limiting their offensive capabilities in lieu of Cousins. Regardless of whether or not Durant plays, this Warriors team has played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as a road dog getting no more than 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from two straight upset losses to their opponent. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (529) and the Toronto Raptors (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-09-19 |
Bruins v. Blues UNDER 5 |
|
5-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (11) and the St. Louis Blues (12). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (60-37-9) took a 3-2 lead in this series on Thursday with their 2-1 victory on the road in Boston. The Bruins (63-32-9) look to stave off elimination and force a climactic Game Seven back on the home ice while the Blues look to win their first Stanley Cup championship in the history of the franchise.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: St. Louis has only allowed three combined goals in their last two games. The Blues have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined goals were scored — and they have also played 33 of their last 52 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, St. Louis has played 21 of their last 31 home games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Boston has played 30 of their last 47 games Under the Total after a loss at home. The Bruins have also played 7 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in two straight games — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not scoring more than one goal in their last contest. Boston’s top forward group has been completely shut down by the Blues as the line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak have not scored a goal when playing at even strength in this series. The Bruins are also not getting much from their Power Play after failing to score on any of their three opportunities with a man advantage on Thursday. Boston is now a dismal 1 of 16 on the Power Play in this series. But goalie Tuukka Rask is keeping his team in these games. The Bruins are allowing only 2.1 Goals-Per-Game in these playoffs. Boston has also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: Both goaltenders are playing with confidence right now. Rask has a .917 save percentage in this series — and he has stopped 114 of the last 124 shots he has faced in the last four games of this series for a .919 save percentage. Jordan Binnington has a .908 save percentage in this series which includes him getting pulled in Game Three of this series after allowing five goals. Since that game, Binnington has stopped 59 of 62 shots for a superb .957 save percentage. 10* NHL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (11) and the St. Louis Blues (12). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-19 |
Raptors v. Warriors OVER 214.5 |
|
105-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (527) and the Golden State Warriors (528). THE SITUATION: Toronto (72-31) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Wednesday with their 123-109 upset win in Golden State as a 2.5-point underdog. The Warriors (70-31) host Game Four of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Raptors have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. Toronto has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with just one day of rest. The Raptors held the Warriors to just 39.6% shooting which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six contests. Toronto has held their last five opponents to just 42.9% shooting — but they have then played 25 of their last 39 games Over the Total after not allowing their last five opponents to shoot better than an aggregate 42% from the field. The Raptors have also played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Golden State has seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. The Warriors will put Klay Thompson back on the court after he did not play on Wednesday with his hamstring injury. Thompson’s think he could have played in that game — so the extra two days of rest should help be in pretty good shape tonight. Golden State clearly needs him on the court as they shot just 39.6% from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage for them all season. Having a second credible shooter on the court will open up the Warriors offense. They assisted on just 69.4% of their field goals on Wednesday which was the lowest of the series as the team was too dependent on Stephen Curry shooting the basketball. The injury to Kevon Looney means that head coach Steve Kerr will need to continue to rely on DeMarcus Cousins to play significant minutes. While Cousins is a force on the offensive end of the court, he is a defensive liability that was demonstrated once again on Wednesday. Golden State has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. The Warriors have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total when favored by no more than 6 points. Golden State has also played 9 of their last 11 games in the NBA Finals Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing in the Oracle Center. Golden State has scored exactly 109 points in each of the first three games of this series. Expect another higher scoring game between these two teams tonight. 10* NBA Friday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (527) and the Golden State Warriors (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-06-19 |
Blues v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 |
|
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the mag between the St. Louis Blues (9) and the Boston Bruins (10). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (59-37-9) evened this series at 2-2 on Monday with their 4-2 victory over the Bruins. Boston (63-31-9) returns home to host the fifth game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The last two games of this series have finished Over the Total — but the Blues have then played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. St. Louis has also played 20 of their last 30 road games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. The Blues are playing lock-down defense against the Bruins’ top offensive threats. The Boston top line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak have not scored a goal tonight when playing at even strength in this series. And after thwarting all three of the Bruins’ Power Play chances in Game Four of this series, St. Louis has not allowed a goal in 12 of the 13 Power Play opportunities Boston has had in this series. The Blues tend to play in lower scoring games away from home as they allow only 2.5 Goals-Per-Game on the road — and in their last four road games in the playoffs, they have allowed only 2.0 Goals-Per-Game. Additionally, St. Louis has played 4 of their last 5 fifth games in a playoff series Under the Total. The Bruins have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Boston has also played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing at least four goals in their last game (even when considering that one of those goals was scored on an empty net). The Bruins entered the third period in a 2-2 deadlock before allowing two goals in the final 20 minutes of play. Boston has then played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing at least two goals in the third period. It will be a game-time decision as to whether or not defensemen Zdano Chara and Matt Grzelcyk will take the ice tonight. Grzelcyk is in the concussion protocol after taking a big hit in the second game of this series. Chara had his jaw broken on Monday. Both players skated this morning with Chara wearing a protective mask. I think they are going to play tonight — but even if one or both of them do not, the Bruins still have a depth on their blue line along led by their best defender in Charlie McAvoy. There is precedent in the playoffs for a player with a broken jaw to take the ice as Derek Stepan as he only missed one game (on just one day of rest) in the 2014 playoffs when he was playing for the New York Rangers. Boston is allowing only 2.1 Goals-Per-Game in the postseason.
FINAL TAKE: The Bruins have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least two goals. 10* NHL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the mag between the St. Louis Blues (9) and the Boston Bruins (10). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-06-19 |
Marlins v. Brewers OVER 8 |
|
1-5 |
Loss |
-114 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 2:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the Milwaukee Brewers (908) listing both starting pitchers Caleb Smith and Freddy Peralta. THE SITUATION: Miami (23-36) has won the first two games of this series as part of a four-game winning streak after they defeated Milwaukee (34-28) by an 8-3 score yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have banged out 24 runs in the first two games of this series. Miami has then played 23 of their last 33 road games Over the Total after a win. The Marlins have also seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games on the road — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, Miami has played 33 of their last 53 road games as a big underdog priced in the +150 to +200 price range. They give the ball to Smith who is 3-3 with a 3.10 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in eleven starts. The left-hander is a fly ball pitcher who thrives at home in the spacious Marlins Park where he owns a 1.84 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .176 in five starts. But in his six starts on the road, Smith sees his ERA rise to a 4.26 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .200. Smith has already surrendered 10 homers this season. The Over is 3-0-1 in Miami’s last 4 games on the road with Smith on the hill. Smith also has struggled in day games where he has an 8.00 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP in two starts this year. He faces a Brewers team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .280 batting average along with a .317 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .830 over that span. Milwaukee has played 4 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Brewers have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They also have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Peralta who is 2-2 with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. The right-hander has struggled as a starter in his brief MLB career where he has a 5.16 ERA as compared to his 2.12 ERA when he is coming out of the bullpen. Peralta has also not been as effective at home where he owns a 6.98 ERA along with a 1.81 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .289 in 19 1/3 innings as compared to his 4.34 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .284 opponent’s batting average in 18 2/3 innings on the road. Milwaukee has played 6 straight home games Over the Total with Peralta on the hill. The Brewers have also played 8 straight Overs with Peralta pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -125 to -175 range. He faces a hot-hitting Marlins team that is scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .296 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .846 during that span. The Over is 5-2-1 in Miami’s last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Marlins have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is now 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings between these two teams when playing in Milwaukee. Expect a high scoring game in this afternoon Getaway Game. 10* MLB Thursday Afternoon O/U Matinee with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the Milwaukee Brewers (908) listing both starting pitchers Caleb Smith and Freddy Peralta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-05-19 |
Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 213.5 |
Top |
123-109 |
Loss |
-101 |
8 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (525) and the Golden State Warriors (526). THE SITUATION: Golden State (70-30) evened this series at 1-1 on Sunday with their 109-104 upset win at Toronto (71-31). The Warriors return home to the Oracle Center to host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Golden State vastly improved their efficiency in their half-court offense after scoring just 0.84 Points-Per-Possession in the half court in Game One of this series. The Warriors improved that mark to a 1.068 PPP rate in the half court in Game Two which was the most efficient mark that the Raptors have allowed in these playoffs. Regression is likely for this Golden State team — especially with all the injuries they are dealing with tonight. Klay Thompson claims that he will play tonight — but head coach Steve Kerr will not play him if he is experiencing pain with the pulled hamstring he suffered on Sunday. While Thompson’s ability to launch jump shots should not be affected by this injury, his movement will be — so he may have difficulty getting open if and when he does play tonight. Kevin Durant is still not ready to play in this series — and the Warriors lost Kevon Looney to a season-ending cartilage fracture injury on Sunday. DeMarcus Cousins played surprisingly well in Game Two but he is still not at 100% as he recovers from his torn quad — and he is still working back into game shape after missing over a month of play. Even Andre Iguodala is not at 100% as he is dealing with a sprained calf of his own. Golden State’s most reliable offensive threat remains Stephen Curry — but when the Raptors deployed the gimmick box-and-one defense in the late moments of the fourth quarter, the Warriors’ offense stalled to a near halt. While the Warriors will adjust to that gimmick defense, the reason why it worked is that Golden State simply lacks reliable scoring threats with all these injuries they have endured. Bettors who had the closing over/under number of 212.5 still cashed their Over tickets that looked like locks midway through the final quarter even with the ugly scoring drought suffered by both teams — and the Warriors have played 15 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Golden State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset victory. Now the Warriors finally return to the Oracle Center for the first time since May 16th after playing their last four games on the road. Golden State has played 28 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last four games on the road. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 13 of their last 19 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Toronto should play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Warriors to make 46.3% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Raptors have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss. Toronto has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Raptors also experienced problems on the offensive end of the court with them shooting just 37.2% of their shots from the field. Kawhi Leonard has seen his offensive productivity steadily decline as the postseason moves on. Leonard has been nursing a leg injury of his own and he seems to be tiring. He only had seven isolation plays on offense with a mere four post-up plays with his energy appearing to be limited. Now Toronto goes on the road where the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. The Raptors have also covered the point spread in five of shier last six games — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, the Raptors have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied. Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied. Expect a lower scoring game tonight. 25* NBA Wednesday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (525) and the Golden State Warriors (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-05-19 |
Braves v. Pirates OVER 9.5 |
|
4-7 |
Win
|
103 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (955) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (33-27) has won three straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night with their 12-5 victory over the Pirates. Pittsburgh (28-31) has now lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while the Atlanta bullpen has logged in nine combined innings in their last two games, they have then played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total after having their bullpen pitch at least 9 combined innings over their last two games. Additionally, the Braves have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road — and the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Gausman who is 2-4 with a 5.56 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eleven starts this season. The right-hander has been less effective on the road where he has a 1.54 WHIP along with a .275 opponent’s batting average in five starts as compared to his 1.26 WHIP and .241 opponent’s batting average at home. The Over is 4-0-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 games on the road with Gausman on the hill. He faces a Pittsburgh team that has played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Pirates have also played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Pittsburgh is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .304 batting average along with a .356 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .801 over that span. The Pirates have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have seen the Over go 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And while Pittsburgh has also lost six of their last eight games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. Additionally, the Pirates have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Pittsburgh has also played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Musgrove who is 3-6 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in twelve games (eleven starts). The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 6.41 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .310 in five starts as compared to his 3.29 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .196. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with his numbers with the Pirates last year where he had a 3.86 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average at home but a 4.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average on the road. Pittsburgh has played 4 straight home games Over the Total at home with Musgrove on the hill.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games. Expect a higher scoring game between these two teams tonight. 10* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (955) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-03-19 |
Bruins v. Blues UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-134 |
5 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (7) and the St. Louis Blues (8). THE SITUATION: Boston (63-30-9) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Saturday with their 7-2 victory on the road against the Blues. St. Louis looks to even this series at 2-2 on their home ice before traveling to Boston for Game Five on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blues should play a more disciplined defensive game after falling behind by a 4-0 score early in the second period when Boston scored on a Power Play that was carried over from the first period. St. Louis has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least five goals in their last game. The Blues have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals. Goalie Jordan Binnington allowed five goals in that game before being pulled — but he has been very reliable when attempting to bounce-back from a loss. In his six starts after a loss in the regular season, Binnington stopped 141 of the 151 shots he faced for a .935 save percentage. In his eight starts in the playoffs this postseason after a loss, Binnington has stopped 194 of the 207 shots he has faced for a .935 save percentage along with 1.84 Goals-Against-Average. The Blues stay at home where they have played 40 of their last 64 home games Under the Total with the number set at 5.5. St. Louis has also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when a money-line favorite priced in the -110 to -150 price range. And in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, the Blues have played 7 of these games Under the Total. Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least six goals in their last contest. The Bruins have held their last five opponents to just 1.6 Goals-Per-Game after their goaltender, Tuukka Rask, stopped 27 of the 29 shots he faced. Rask has a nice .919 save percentage in this series. Moving forward, Boston has played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against an opponent that did not score more than two goals in their last game. The Bruins stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total with the number set at 5.5.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and St. Louis has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when trailing in a playoff series. After Game Three was a high-scoring affair, expect the fourth game of this series to be lower-scoring. The last two games have seen plenty of scoring in the first period. Expect the play in the first period of this game to be very cautious. 25* NHL Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (7) and the St. Louis Blues (8). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-02-19 |
Warriors v. Raptors OVER 212.5 |
Top |
109-104 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (523) and the Toronto Raptors (524). THE SITUATION: Toronto (71-30) won the opening game of this series on Thursday with their 118-109 victory as a 2-point favorite. The Raptors have now won and covered the point spread in five straight games. Golden State (69-30) had their six-game winning streak snapped in that game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Warriors shot just 43.6% from the field on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last twenty-seven games. Golden State has seen the Over go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 7 games on the road — and the Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Furthermore, Golden State has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range — and they have also played 9 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with the number set in that range. Moving forward, the Warriors have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the second game of a playoff series. Golden State has also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the NBA Finals. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 second games of a playoff series Over the Total. The Raptors have also played 21 of their last 32 home games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 31 of their last 47 home games Over the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. Additionally, Toronto has played 14 of their last 20 home games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games — and they have played 29 of their last 44 home games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Raptors have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. And in their last 25 games in expected close contests where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the game finished Over the Total 17 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 contests Over the Total — and they have also played five straight games Over the Total when playing in Toronto. 25* NBA Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (523) and the Toronto Raptors (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-01-19 |
Bruins v. Blues UNDER 5 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (5) and the St. Louis Blues (6). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (58-36-9) evened this series at 1-1 on Wednesday with their 3-2 victory in overtime over Boston (62-30-9). The Blues return home to the Enterprise Center to host the third and fourth games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The first period of Game Two saw both teams score goals before that game became a defensive slugfest for the next two periods. The Blues limited the Bruins to just 23 shots in that game which included an extra 3:21 minutes of overtime. St. Louis has only allowed 1.6 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. The Under is 14-6-2 in their last 22 games when playing an opponent that did not score more than two goals in their last game. The Under is also a decisive 44-21-4 in their last 69 games when playing with two days of rest — and this includes them playing twenty of their last twenty-nine games at home Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. The Blues have won four of their last five games — and they have played 24 of their last 35 home games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. Additionally, St. Louis has played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as a home favorite priced in the -110 to -150 price range. The Blues have also played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when a playoff series is tied. Boston has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their previous game in overtime. Furthermore, the Bruins have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Boston has also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after scoring two goals or less in their last game. The Bruins have also held their last five opponents to only 1.6 Goals-Per-Game. They now go back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total. Boston has played 4 straight games Under the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. And in their last 14 games when playing with two days of rest, the Under is 9-4-1.
FINAL TAKE: With the series tied at 1-1, expect another low scoring game between these two teams. With the Total set at just 5, the oddsmakers are daring bettors to take the Over. Don’t take the bait. 25* NHL NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (5) and the St. Louis Blues (6). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-19 |
Angels v. Mariners OVER 9.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-103 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (923) and the Seattle Mariners (924) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Mike Leake. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (27-29) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 9-3 score. Seattle (24-35) has lost three straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Angels have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. The Angels have played 5 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Skaggs who is 4-4 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in nine starts. The left-hander does his best pitching at home where he sports a 2.28 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .209 — but he sees those numbers rise to a 6.56 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in five starts. He will be supported by a bullpen that has been rocked with a 5.25 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP over their last seven games. Los Angeles has played 5 straight games Over the Total with Skaggs facing the Mariners — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Skaggs facing this team in Seattle. Skaggs faces a Mariners team that has played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Seattle has also seen the Over go 19-6-2 in their last 27 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is 29-14-1 in the Mariners’ last 44 games against an opponent that scored at least five runs in their last game. Seattle has also played 31 of their last 43 games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Additionally, the Over is 12-3-1 in the Mariners’ last 16 games at home — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Over is 15-5-1 in Seattle’s last 21 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Leake who is 3-6 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 1.44 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .300 in four starts at T-Mobile Park as opposed to his 1.36 WHIP and .278 opponent’s batting average on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Leake had a 4.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .287 opponent’s batting average at home as compared to his 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .274 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Mariners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Leake facing a team with a losing record. Seattle has also played 5 straight games Over the Total with Leake facing the Angels. Leake will be supported by a tired bullpen that has logged in 9 2/3 innings of work over their last two games. The Mariners have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 innings over their last two games. This bullpen has a 4.86 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP when pitching at home. The Angels are scoring a robust 6.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .820 over that span. Additionally, LA has played 5 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home by at least six runs. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total. 25* MLB Bailout Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (923) and the Seattle Mariners (924) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Mike Leake. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-19 |
Indians v. White Sox UNDER 10 |
Top |
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (919) and the Chicago White Sox (920) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Dylan Covey. THE SITUATION: Chicago (26-29) ha won four straight games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 10-4 score. Cleveland (28-27) has lost four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Indians have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss. Cleveland has now played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Bauer who is 4-4 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.40 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .181 in six starts. The Under is a decisive 45-11-7 in the Indians’ last 63 road games with Bauer on the hill. The Under is also 3-0-1 in Cleveland’s last 4 road games in Chicago facing the White Sox. Bauer will be supported by an elite Indians’ bullpen that has a 3.15 ERA on the road with a 1.21 WHIP. Bauer faces a White Sox lineup that is scoring only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers this season while posting a .249 batting average along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .694 in those games. Chicago has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 15-7-1 in the White Sox’s last 23 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by at least six runs over an AL Central rival. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 7 Games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played a decisive 38 of their last 55 games Over the Total after scoring at least 8 runs in their last contest. The White Sox have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Covey who is 0-4 with a 5.47 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in five starts and seven appearances this season. The right-hander has been effective when pitching at home where he sees is ERA and WHIP plummet to 2.61 and 1.16 marks — and his opponents are hitting just .189 when he pitching at home in Guaranteed Rate Field. Chicago has played 5 straight games Under the Total with Covey pitching on four days of rest between starts — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Covey making the start against the Indians. Covey’s bullpen enters this game with a 2.37 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP in night games this season. Cleveland is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .224 batting average along with a .302 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .668. The Indians have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With Bauer struggling this month and bettors not giving much respect to Covey, the Total has been set in the 10 range for this contest. Bauer has allowed at least four runs in his last three starts — but all those efforts were at home where he has a history of not always being as effective. Bauer has still amassed 88 strikeouts in 76 innings of work — and he is facing a White Sox team that strikes out 30% of the time against elite starting pitchers like Bauer with similar profiles. Covey is not a strikeout pitcher and gets into trouble when issuing too many bases-on-balls — but the ground ball pitcher has better control when pitching at home. 10s or higher is too high for this matchup especially with two of the weaker lineups in the league. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break AL Central Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Indians (919) and the Chicago White Sox (920) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Dylan Covey. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-19 |
Warriors v. Raptors OVER 213.5 |
Top |
109-118 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (521) and the Toronto Raptors (522). THE SITUATION: Golden State (69-29) has won six straight games after they completed their four-game sweep over Portland by defeating them on the road by a 119-117 score as a 2.5-point favorite back on May 20th. Toronto (70-30) has won four straight games after rallying from a 2-0 deficit to defeat Milwaukee by a 4-2 margin with their 100-94 victory as a 1.5-point road favorite last Saturday. The Raptors host the opening two games of this series. Kevin Durant has been ruled out for this game — but the news I have been waiting for was the confirmation by the Warriors that DeMarcus Cousins will be considered active for tonight’s opening game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With the big break before the start of the NBA Finals, looking at team trends is helpful to assess how these two teams will respond to the extended time off. Golden State has played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total when playing with at least three of rest. Toronto has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest between contest. Additionally, the Raptors have played 20 of their last 31 home games Over the Total after a straight-up victory. Toronto has covered the point spread in their last four games — and not only have they played 28 of their last 43 games at home Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests but they have also played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. They held the Bucks to just 40% shooting on Saturday which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games as their defensive wall against Giannis Antetokounmpo further frustrated that Milwaukee offense. But they will have to hope the chalkboard clean regarding their defensive schemes against this potent Warriors attack. The Raptors face a dilemma on defense as they want to have Danny Green get significant minutes to take advantage of his size in defending Stephen Curry who will torch smaller defenders like Kyle Lowry or Fred VanVleet — but Green is slow in switching off pick-and-rolls and he cannot be a liability with his outside shooting. Green has a great pedigree of nailing 3s in the NBA Finals given his time with San Antonio — but his cold shooting continues, he will have to be benched for VanVleet who has been on fire with his 3-point shooting but is a defensive liability. Furthermore, Toronto has played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range which includes them playing five of their last seven games at home Over the Total in that point spread range. Golden State plays at a quicker pace without Durant on the court as they can replace quick ball movement with his one-on-one isolation skills that does drain time off the shot-clock. The Warriors have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 30 road games Over the Total after a game where they scored at least 115 points. Golden State shot just 46.5% from the field in their last game against the Blazers which was the lowest shooting effort in their last five games. The Warriors have not been as sharp on defense as teams of the past in this postseason as they are allowing the 9th most Points-Per-Possession in these playoffs. They certainly miss Durant’s defensive capabilities — and he would have been the primary ball defender on Kawhi Leonard. Moving forward, Golden State stays on the road for the third straight game where the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 5 contests. The Warriors have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219.5 point range — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with the number set in that range. Additionally, Golden State has played 6 of their last 8 games in the NBA Finals Over the Total. And with Cousins likely to play tonight, that puts the icing on the cake for this Over play (and the 25* rating) since the big man fills a hole on offense with his post-up and shooting skills while representing a liability on the defensive end of the court.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto swept the two games between these two teams in the regular season with the Raptors pulling the upset in the last meeting back on December 12th where they won by a 113-93 score on the road as an 8-point underdog. The Warriors have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 20 points. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Over the Total including four straight Overs when playing in Toronto. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (521) and the Toronto Raptors (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-19 |
Blues v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 54 m |
Show
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At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (3) and the Boston Bruins (4). THE SITUATION: Boston (69-29-9) won the opening game of the Stanley Cup Finals on Monday with their 4-2 victory over St. Louis (57-36-9). The Bruins host the second game of this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blues took a 2-0 lead in this game as they were able to successfully take advantage of the rust that Boston endured after not playing for eleven days after sweeping Carolina in four games. St. Louis either started playing safe or they were concerned about the speed of the Bruins’ forwards — but, either way, their defensemen offered too much space which gave too much room for the Boston offensive players to maneuver at will. St. Louis thrives when playing physical — look for head coach Craig Berube to get his team back to engaging in this style of play tonight which should include playing tighter against the Bruins’ forwards. The Blues allowed two goals in the third period on Monday — and they have played 31 of their last 50 games Under the Total on the road after surrendering at least two goals in the third period of their last game. St. Louis has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by at least two goals. Rookie goalie Jordan Binnington did not play bad — he was peppered with 37 shots in Game One while he stopped 34 of them (with the last Boston goat being an empty-netter). Binnington has been outstanding when he is between the pipes after a Blues loss. In the regular season, Binnington stopped 141 of the 151 shots he faces in six games following a St. Louis loss for a sparkling .395 save percentage. And after the Blues’ seven losses in this postseason, Binnington has stopped 194 of the 207 shots he has faced for a .937 save percentage. As it is, St. Louis has allowed only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game over their last five games — and they can take stock in the fact they stopped four of the five Power Play chances by the Bruins. The Blues may also see the return of one of their top-four defensemen in Vince Dunn who has missed the last four games with a facial injury after getting struck by a puck. Dunn has taken part in the team’s last three practices with the last two without the need of a protective visor. But St. Louis may have bigger problems on the offensive end of the ice after they generated only 12 shots in the final two periods of Game One. The Blues have seen the Under go 26-11-2 in their last 39 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game — and the Under is 20-8-3 in their last 31 games against teams that did not allow more than two goals in their last game. This team scores only 2.8 Goals-Per-Game when playing away from home. Additionally, the Under is 34-13-3 in St. Louis’ last 50 road games as a big underdog priced in the +151 to +200 range. The Blues have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when trailing in a playoff series. Boston has played 15 of their last 22 games after a win at home where they scored at least four goals. The Bruins have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least six games in a row. Goalie Tuukka Rask showed the outstanding form in the second half of that game that he has displayed this postseason as he entered this series with a 1.84 Goals-Against-Average along with a .942 save percentage. Boston has allowed only 1.9 Goals-Per-Game in the playoffs — and they have given up just 1.4 Goals-Per-Game over their last five games.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least two goals — and they have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by at least two goals. 25* NHL NBC-Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (3) and the Boston Bruins (4). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-29-19 |
Pirates v. Reds OVER 10 |
Top |
7-2 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
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At 12:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (901) and the Cincinnati Reds (902) listing both starting pitchers Steven Brault and Anthony DeSclafani. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (26-29) has won three of their last four games after winning the third game of this series last night by an 11-6 score. Pittsburgh (26-27) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests. The Reds host this Getaway Game this afternoon to close out this four-game series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pirates have played 7 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and the Over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Pittsburgh has also seen the Over go 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And the Over is now 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on the road. They give the ball to Brault who will serve as the opener this afternoon with his 1-1 record along with a 7.11 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP in 25 1/3 innings of work. The left-hander has been even less effective on the road where he has a 9.00 ERA with 2.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .353 in 12 innings — and he has an 11.88 ERA with a 2.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .378 during the day this season. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Pirates’ last 4 road games with Brault on the hill. He faces a hot-hitting Reds lineup that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .340 batting average along with a .399 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .988 over that span. The Over is also 3-0-1 in Cincy’s last 4 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Pirates’ bullpen will be called on to log in plenty of innings after Brault this afternoon — but that group has an ERA of 5.85 over their last seven games with a WHIP of 1.67. Cincinnati has played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Reds have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They counter with DeSclafani who is 2-2- with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 5.68 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP in four starts as compared to his 4.55 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP on the road. Tony Disco had a 5.02 ERA at home in the Great American Ballpark last year as competed to his more modest 4.78 ERA when on the road. The Over is 4-0-2 in Cincinnati’s last 6 home games with DeSclafani on the hill — and the Reds have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with him facing the Pirates. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 6.58 ERA over their last seven games. Pittsburgh is also swinging hot bats as they are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .292 batting average with a .332 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .820. The Pirates have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 meetings. Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams in this afternoon Getaway Game. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (901) and the Cincinnati Reds (902) listing both starting pitchers Steven Brault and Anthony DeSclafani. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-28-19 |
Mets v. Dodgers OVER 8 |
Top |
7-3 |
Win
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100 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (36-18) won the opening game of this series last night by a 9-5 score over New York (26-27).
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets bullpen surrendered seven runs in their last loss yesterday on Memorial Day. New York has then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by at least four runs — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen allowed at least four runs. Furthermore, the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Mets have played 18 of their last 20 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. They give the ball to Matz who is 3-3 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bearish on the left-handed knuckleballer with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.06 and 4.00 moving forward. Matz has been very good at home where he owns a 1.50 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .238 — but those numbers rise to a 6.10 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in five starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Matz had a 3.59 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 at home but a 4.46 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 5-2-1 in New York’s last 8 road games with Matz facing a team with a winning record. The Over is also 9-2-1 in the Mets’ last 12 games when Matz is pitching on four days rest. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .306 batting average along with a .392 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .898 over that span. Los Angeles is also scoring a healthy 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .277 batting average, .351 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .837. The Dodgers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Los Angeles has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers banged out 17 hits yesterday — and they have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after producing at least 17 hits in their last game. They counter with Hill who is 1-1 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in five starts. The sabermetrics suggest he is overachieving as his SIERA and xFIP project a rise in his ERA to 3.28 and 3.29 respectively based on his peripheral numbers. The left-hander has not been as effective at home either where he has a 3.27 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP in two starts. Last year, Hill had a 3.69 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 at home with all those numbers improving to a 3.63 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .193 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road. Los Angeles has played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total with Hill pitching on the road. And while Hill comes off a nice outing where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work at Tampa Bay, the Over is 16-4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 21 games with Hill following up a Quality Start. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .260 batting average, .314 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .822 in those games. New York has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have now played 7 of their last 8 meetings in Los Angeles Over the Total. Expect another high-scoring game. 25* Major League Baseball Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (961) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-27-19 |
Blues v. Bruins UNDER 5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
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At 8:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (1) and the Boston Bruins (2). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (57-35-9) reached the Stanley Cup Finals by defeating San Jose in six games with their 5-1 victory at home last Tuesday. Boston (61-29-9) has won seven games in a row after they completed their four-game sweep of Carolina that they concluded on the road back on May 16th by a 4-0 score. The Bruins host the first two games of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston is getting outstanding goaltending from a former Vezina Trophy winner in Tuukka Rask who has a 1.84 Goals-Against-Average along with a .942 save percentage in these playoffs. Over his last seven games, Rask has a 1.29 GAA along with a .961 save percentage. Boston has allowed only five combined goals over their last five games while never allowing more than two goals over that span. Rask has two shutouts in these last five games. The Bruins have then played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in four straight games. Boston looks to get their veteran leader Zdeno Chara back tonight after he missed the last game of the series with the Hurricanes with an injury. He will help a Bruins’ Power Play Kill Unit that has been 86.3% effective in the postseason. Moving forward, Boston has played 20 of their last 28 home games Under the Total after winning at least five games in a row — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after winning at least six straight games in a row. Furthermore, the Under is 3-1-1 in the Bruins’ last 5 games in the Stanley Cup Finals. Boston has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams that scored at least five goals in their last game. St. Louis has seen the Under go 20-7-3 in their last 30 games against an opponent that did not allow more than two goals in their last game. The Blues have won three straight games as well as four of their last five contests. They preceded their Game Six victory over the Sharks with a 5-0 shutout win against them in Game Five of that series. St. Louis has played 14 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after winning two straight games by at least two goals — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two straight games by at least three goals. The Blues have only allowed two combined goals over their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing one goal or less in three straight games. They are also getting outstanding goaltending with Jordan Binnington owning a 2.31 GAA along with a .914 save percentage in these playoffs. Binnington also owns a 0.67 GAA with a .974 save percentage over his last three starts. He has been helped by a blue-line that has not allowed a goal in 11 of their last 13 Power Play Kills (84.6%). St. Louis has played 24 of their last 34 road games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while the Blues’ have played only five games over the last fourteen days, they have then played12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when playing just their fifth game in fourteen days.
FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has played 15 of their last 23 opening games to a new series Under the Total. The Bruins have seen the Under go 15-6-5 in their last 26 playoff games when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. Expect a lower-scoring game tonight with both teams dealing with the rust of six and eleven days off since last taking the ice against hostile competition. 25* NHL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (1) and the Boston Bruins (2). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-26-19 |
Yankees v. Royals OVER 9 |
Top |
7-8 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
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At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Kansas City Royals (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Danny Duffy. THE SITUATION: New York (34-17) has won seven straight games in a row after sweeping yesterday’s double-header — winning Game One by a 7-3 score before winning the nightcap by a 6-5 score. Kansas City (17-34) has lost three straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 5-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win on the road. New York has seen the Over go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Yankees have now seen the Over go 33-11-3 in their last 47 games on the road — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Additionally, New York has played 10 straight games Over the Total on the road as a favorite priced at -125 or higher. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total in the third game of a series. They give the ball to German who is 9-1 with a 2.60 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.91 and 3.82 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road either as he has a 1.69 ERA with a .177 opponent’s batting average at home but a 3.45 ERA with a .193 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where German had a 5.20 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and .224 opponent’s batting average at home with all those numbers rising to a 5.98 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .261 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Over is 6-0-1 in New York’s last 7 games on the road with German on the hill. And while the Yankees’ bullpen has pitched 14 innings over their last three games, New York has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after their bullpen has pitched at least 13 combined innings over their last three games. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Royals’ last 4 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City has seen the Over go 21-10-3 in their last 34 games after a loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games after a loss by just one run. Additionally, the Over is 12-5-3 in the Royals’ last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog priced at least at +150. Furthermore, the Over is 3-1-1 in Kansas City’s last 5 games at home — and the Over is 15-5-2 in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Duffy who is 3-1 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in five starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.88 and 4.25 moving forward. The left-hander has been less effective at home as well where he owns a 4.50 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in three starts as compared to his 2.13 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average of .239 on the road. Duffy struggled at home last year as well where he was saddled with a 6.31 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .276 opponent’s batting average of .276 as compared to his 3.94 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .256 opponent’s batting average at home. The Royals have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Duffy on the hill. And while he comes off a strong effort where he allowed only one earned run in 6 innings of work in Los Angeles against the Angels, KC has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when Duffy is pitching after an outing where he did not allow more than one earned run. He faces the Bronx Bombers’ offensive juggernaut that is scoring 8.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games along with .301 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .951 over that span. The Yankees are scoring 6.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-0-1 in New York’s last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams when playing in Kansas City. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Kansas City Royals (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Danny Duffy. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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