All Sports Archive |
Date |
Match Up |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Lead Time |
Analysis |
03-30-19 |
Texas Tech v. Gonzaga UNDER 140 |
Top |
75-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (683) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (684). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (29-6) reached the Elite Eight on Thursday with their 63-44 upset win over Michigan as a 2-point underdog. Gonzaga (33-3) joined them in the Elite Eight with their 72-58 win over Florida State on Thursday as a 7.5-point favorite. This West regional contest takes place in Anaheim.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Red Raiders absolutely stifled the Wolverines offense in that game as they held them to just a 32.3% shooting percentage while watching them miss 18 of their 19 shot from behind the arc. Texas Tech not only has the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation but they rank as the second-best all-time defense according to metrics guru Ken Pomeroy since he started measuring those numbers in 2002. The Red Raiders have held their last five opponents to just 38.0% shooting from the field which has translated into only 62.2 PPG. Texas Tech has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. The Pack-Line defense that head coach Chris Beard deploys is very difficult to prepare for — and they have played 31 of their last 45 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. The Under is also a decisive 46-21-1 in this team’s last 68 games against teams outside the Big 12 that are less familiar with their defensive schemes. But the concern for this Red Raiders team is their ability to score baskets themselves. Texas Tech scored only 24 points in the first half against a tough Wolverines defense — and they have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. They will be facing another outstanding defensive team in the Bulldogs who hold their opponents to just 38.7% shooting from the field. The Red Raiders have played 9 of their last 10 games away from home Under the Total against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39% or less. Texas Tech has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Additionally, the Red Raiders have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Big Dance — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or a favorite of no more than 6 points. The Bulldogs have then top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency numbers in the nation — but they will be challenged by this elite Red Raiders’ defense. Gonzaga’s offense slows down if point guard Josh Perkins has to overcome pesky defensive ball hawks — and Texas Tech has that type of player in Matt Mooney. With their offensive prowess gets most of the attention, the Bulldogs defense is under appreciated as they rank 12th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency. With Killian Tillie back in the mix after being out with an injury, a strength of this group is that they have athletic players that can effectively play off switches. The Red Raiders make 47.2% of their shots — but Gonzaga has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams that shoot at least 45% from the field. The Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga will want to push the pace to generate scoring opportunities in transition as they play the 7th fastest tempo in the nation. This is why the Total is set in the 130s. The Bulldogs will struggle to score in their half-court sets — but the Red Raiders will also struggle as well. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (683) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (684). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-29-19 |
Virginia Tech v. Duke UNDER 144.5 |
|
73-75 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Tech Hokies (669) and the Duke Blue Devils (670). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (26-8) has won four of their last five games with their 67-58 win over Liberty last Sunday as a 9.5-point favorite. Duke (31-5) survived a big scare last Sunday to advance to the Sweet Sixteen with their 77-76 win over Central Florida as a 13-point favorite. This East regional matchup takes place in Washington D.C.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Devils have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is 21-7-2 in their last 30 games after a straight-up loss. And while their victory over Central Florida finished Over the 142 point Total, Duke has then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. The Blue Devils have scored 85 and 77 points in their last two games — but they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. Duke should play better on defense tonight after allowing the Knights to make 48.1% of their shots from the field which was tied for the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last ten games. The Hokies average nine made 3-pointers per game — but the Blue Devils have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who average at least 8 made 3-pointers per game. Duke has also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow ACC opponents. Furthermore, the Blue Devils have played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total when favored. Virginia Tech has played four straight Unders — and they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games Under the Total. The Hokies will try to slow this game to a near halt — they rank 332nd in the nation in pace. They are also 9th in the country by allowing only 61.7 PPG. Virginia Tech has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: The first meeting between these two teams resulted in a 77-72 upset win for the Hokies. While that result finished Over the 143 point total set for that contest, the Blue Devils were playing without Zion Williamson — and he probably has an even bigger impact on the defensive end of the court for the Dukies then on offense. These two teams have played 13 of their last 17 meetings Under the Total. 10* CBB Virginia Tech-Duke CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Tech Hokies (669) and the Duke Blue Devils (670). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-29-19 |
Auburn v. North Carolina UNDER 164 |
Top |
97-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:29 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (673) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (674). THE SITUATION: Auburn (28-9) reached the Sweet Sixteen last Saturday with their 89-75 win over Kansas as a 2.5-point favorite. North Carolina (29-6) joined them on Sunday in the Sweet Sixteen with their 81-59 victory over Washington as an 11.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Kansas City for this Midwest region showdown.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Auburn shot 52.5% from the field against the Jayhawks in what was the best shooting effort in their last eighteen games. The Tigers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Auburn has also played 7 of their 11 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. With both these teams loving to play at a fast pace while scoring many of their baskets in transition, it is tempting to think the final score will finish well above the Total. The Tigers get over 20% of their points from transition which places them seventh in the nation in that metric. But head coach Bruce Pearl may decide it is a losing battle to getting into a drag race with the Tar Heels who thrive in transition and are one of the six teams in the country that generate more points than Auburn that way. Duke also scores more points in transition than the Tigers — and Pearl had his team slow things down when they played earlier this season. That contest saw a moderate 71 possessions in that game with the result being a 78-72 win over the Blue Devils. Expect Pearl to slow the pace of this game down as well with the hopes that his team’s 3-point shooting and ability to force turnovers will make the winning difference. North Carolina averages 67 shots per game which translates into 86.0 PPG. Auburn has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams that score at least 84 PPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 62 shots per game. Furthermore, the Tigers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road against teams who are winning at least 80% of their games. And in their last 19 games with the Total set in the 160s, Auburn has played 14 of these games Under the Total. North Carolina has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 160 to 169.5 point range. The Tar Heels have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, North Carolina has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. While the Tar Heels are a high-scoring team, their good play on the defensive end of the court is under-appreciated. North Carolina is 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 40.1% field goal percentage. But the Tar Heels are only making 44.6% of their shots over their last five contests which is a few notches below their 46.5% mark for the season. Moving forward, North Carolina has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. Additionally, the Tar Heels have played 5 straight games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total set in the mid-160s for this game, expect Auburn to try to slow things down to keep the Tar Heels offense in check. 25* CBB TBS-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (673) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-28-19 |
Florida State v. Gonzaga UNDER 148.5 |
Top |
58-72 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:09 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (655) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (656). THE SITUATION: Florida State (29-7) reached the Sweet Sixteen with their 90-62 blowout win over Murray State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Gonzaga (32-3) joined them in the Sweet Sixteen with an 83-71 win over Baylor as a 14-point favorite on Saturday. This West regional game is being played in Anaheim.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seminoles shots 50.7% from the field against the Racers on the strength of nailing 11 of their 27 shots (40.7%) of their shots from behind the arc. They are unlikely to replicate that effort tonight against this Bulldogs team that ranks 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Gonzaga is even better in defending the half-court as they rank 7th in the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 44.0% — and they also rank 21st in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 30.5% shooting mark from behind the arc. Despite torching the nets against Murray State, Florida State is making only 42.8% of their shots over their last five games — and they rank just 210th in the nation by making only 33.7% of their 3-pointers. The Seminoles raced out to a 50-34 halftime lead on Saturday in that game — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enjoying at least a 15 point lead at halftime of their last game. That result finished well above the 146.5 point total — but Florida State has then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Over the Total. And while the Bulldogs have an opponents’ field goal percentage of 38.7%, the Seminoles have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams that do not allow their opponents to make more than 38% of their shots. Additionally, Florida State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. The Bulldogs have given up only 23 and 17 points in the first half of their first two games in the NCAA Tournament — and they have then played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half of their last two games. However, it is Gonzaga’s 60-47 loss to Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference championship game which may have borne the fruit for how Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton will have his team play. Admittedly, Hamilton will have his team play at a much faster pace than the crawl that the Gaels usually engage. But Saint Mary’s found success in dropping their guards off ball screens who allowed them to contest 2-point shots that frustrated the Bulldogs. Gonzaga point guard Josh Perkins also was bothered by the Gaels’ pressure they applied against him — and Perkins is susceptible to having very bad games. When that happens, the Zags’ offense can stall. Hamilton has five tall guards with length who can throw at Perkins with pressure to veer the Bulldogs offensive flow off balance. Florida State has the tenth best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation with their outstanding athleticism and length — and Hamilton can play position-less basketball with his one through five players all being able to switch off ball screens. Furthermore, the Seminoles out-rebound their opponents by +4.9 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Gonzaga has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams that out-rebound their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. Additionally, the Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams outside the West Coast Conference.
FINAL TAKE: The Total for this game is set in the high-140s because both teams like to play at a quick tempo. But both defenses should have the upper hand in this contest — so expect a lower-scoring game. 25* CBB Sweet Sixteen Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (655) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (656). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-19 |
Lipscomb v. NC State UNDER 163 |
Top |
94-93 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Lipscomb Bisons (625) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (626). Lipscomb (27-7) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the NIT on Saturday with their 88-69 upset win at UNC-Greensboro as a 2-point underdog. NC State (24-11) joined them in the Quarterfinals with their 78-77 victory over Harvard on Sunday as a 9.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Lipscomb has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road. The Bison has also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after a victory on the road. This team stays on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total. Lipscomb has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. The Bison led the Ohio Valley Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They limit their home hosts this season to just 40% shooting from the field. This team will be challenged by the Wolfpack who led the ACC by pulling down 34.9% of their missed shots — but Lipscomb is very good at defending their defensive glass. The Bison are 14th in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 22.4% of their missed shots. Furthermore, the Bison have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 160s. NC State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when the Total was set in the 160 to 169.5 point range. And while the Wolfpack have not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread for three straight contests. NC State shot only 40% from the field in their win over Harvard. Over their last five games, the Wolfpack are making only 40.9% of their shots. They survived the Crimson Tide despite allowing them to make 52.7% of their shots. Yet NC State has played better defense as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just a 41.0% shooting clip which is a bit better this than their 43.9% opponents’ field goal percentage for the season. Now the Wolfpack return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 10 home games as a pick ‘em or favorite laying no more than 6 points, NC State has played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is set in the 160s since both these teams play at a fast pace. Despite that up-tempo play in this game, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Lipscomb Bisons (625) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-27-19 |
Pacers v. Thunder UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
99-107 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (575) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (576). THE SITUATION: Indiana (45-29) snapped their four-game losing streak last night with their 124-88 upset win over Denver as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Oklahoma City (43-31) has lost five of their last six games after their 115-103 upset loss at Memphis on Monday as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pacers have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Indiana has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played a decisive 38 of their last 55 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 15 games after losing three of their last four games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total. The Pacers made 56.1% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting effort in their last fourteen contests. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and the Under is 23-7-1 in their last 31 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The struggling Thunder returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Oklahoma City’s struggles as of late can be attributed to a steep decline on offense: they are last in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency since the All-Star Break. Over their last five games, the Thunder are shooting just 40.4% from the field which has translated into 105.6 PPG with both those numbers far below their 114.3 PPG scoring average for the season on 45.3% shooting from the field. And while their defensive play has also declined since the break, they still are a respectable 9th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency over their last fifteen games. Moving forward, the Under is 36-16-1 in the Thunder’s last 53 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight meetings Under the Total. With Oklahoma City struggling with their baskets, expect a lower-scoring game against this Pacers’ team that plays hard for their head coach Nate McMillan. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (575) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-24-19 |
Oklahoma v. Virginia UNDER 127 |
|
51-63 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (861) and the Virginia Cavaliers (862). THE SITUATION: Virginia (30-3) has won ten of their last eleven games after they rallied from an anxious first half to dispatch of Gardner Webb by a 71-56 score as a 22-point favorite on Friday. Oklahoma (20-13) comes off a 95-72 upset victory over Mississippi on Friday as a 1-point underdog. This South regional game is being played on a neutral court in Columbia, South Carolina.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sooners made 57.6% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last four games while scoring the most points that they have all season. They may not reach half that amount tonight against the Cavs’ difficult Pack-Line defense. Despite Virginia leading the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 27.5% outside the arc, the most effective way to break their defense is to shoot over the Pack-Line from the outside (there is a reason why Tony Bennett’s defense is so good). Oklahoma is unlikely to get the job done here as they are just 168th in the nation by making only 34.5% of their 3-pointers. The Sooners ranked 9th in the Big 12 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while ranking 58th in the nation overall in that metric. This teams also ranks just 66th in the nation amongst power conference foes in Shot Volume that takes into account Offensive Rebounding and Turnover percentages. Oklahoma has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Sooners have also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while their win over Ole Miss finished Over the 142 point total, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, Oklahoma has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Virginia has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 21 of their last 33 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight days. Additionally, the Cavaliers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a lower scoring game between these two teams with the Sooners struggling to score baskets against the outstanding Cavaliers defense. 10* CBB Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (861) and the Virginia Cavaliers (862). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-24-19 |
Washington v. North Carolina UNDER 151 |
Top |
59-81 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 2:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (867) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (868). THE SITUATION: Washington (27-8) has won three of their last four games with their 78-61 upset victory over Utah State on Friday as a 3.5-point underdog. North Carolina (28-6) has won nine of their last ten games with their 88-73 victory over Iona on Friday as a 24.5-point favorite. This Midwest regional game is being played in Columbus, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies made 49% of their shots against the Aggies which was the best shooting mark in the last five games. That was an outlier effort for this challenged team on offense — Washington ranks 109th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while also ranking 102nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 52.3%. Overall, the Huskies score 70.1 PPG on 45% shooting from the field — but those numbers drop to just 63.4 PPG along with a 41.0% shooting mark when playing away from home. Washington has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while that game finished Over the 136 point total, the Huskies have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. What this Washington team thrives at is playing defense as they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Senior guard Matisse Thybulle may be the best defensive player in college basketball. Head coach Mike Hopkins was a long time assistant of Jim Boeheim at Syracuse so this team deploys a similar 2-3 matchup-zone which can be very difficult to prepare for in tournament action on the weekend with the short turn-around time. The Huskies have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, Washington has played a decisive 37 of their last 55 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Pac-12. North Carolina made 46.7% of their shots over the Gaels on Friday which was the best shooting mark in their last eight games. The Tar Heels are only making 43% of their shots over their last five games. North Carolina has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 15 points. The Tar Heels did control the glass against Iona as they pulled down 52 rebounds. The vulnerability of the 2-3 zone is that it leaves open space in front of the basket for offensive rebounds. Even if North Carolina gets plenty of second-chance opportunities, it helps the Under since it extends possession length. The Tar Heels have played 13 of the last 17 games Under the Total after rebounding at least 52 boards in their last contest. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days. What is underappreciated about this North Carolina team this season is just how good they are playing on defense. Roy Williams’ team ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 39.2% field goal percentage. This strong defensive play has helped the Tar Heels plate 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. Furthermore, North Carolina has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament.
FINAL TAKE: Washington will try to slow this game down to limit possessions. With the Total creeping into the 150s, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (867) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (868). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-23-19 |
Minnesota v. Michigan State UNDER 140 |
|
50-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:55 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (845) and the Michigan State Spartans (846). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (29-6) has won six straight games with their 76-65 win over Bradley on Thursday as an 18-point favorite in their opening game in the NCAA Tournament. Minnesota (22-13) has won three of their last four games after they pulled the upset over Louisville on Thursday by an 86-76 score as a 5-point underdog. This East regional game is being played in Des Moines.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Gophers made 50% of their shots against the Cardinals which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last fifteen games. They also made eleven 3-pointers in a rare outbreak of effective 3-point shooting despite their 31.5% shooting mark from behind the arc when playing away from home — that road mark ranks just 274th in the nation. Minnesota wants to get to the free throw line — they led the Big Ten with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 39.9%. But Michigan State was second in the Big Ten with an opponent’s FTA: FGA rate of 26.4%. The Gophers have seen the Under go 17-8-1 in their last 26 games after a straight-up win. Minnesota has also played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Gophers have played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. And in their last 13 games against fellow Big Ten opponents, Minnesota has played 9 of these games Under the Total. Michigan State has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total against fellow Big Ten rivals. The Under is also 25-10-1 in their last 36 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Spartans have seen the Under go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Furthermore, Michigan State has played 11 of their last 15 games played on a neutral court Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. And in their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a favorite laying 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total. Michigan State looked tired on Thursday in their win over Bradley — and both teams have thin benches at this point of the season. The pace will likely be slow between these two familiar foes. 10* CBB Minnesota-Michigan State O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (845) and the Michigan State Spartans (846). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-23-19 |
Murray State v. Florida State UNDER 148 |
Top |
62-90 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Murray State Racers (839) and the Florida State Seminoles (840). THE SITUATION: Murray State (28-4) pulled the upset in the Round of 64 with their 83-64 win over Marquette as a 3-point underdog on Thursday. Florida State (28-7) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-69 victory over Vermont as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. This West regional game takes place in Hartford.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Racers shocked a strong scoring team in the Golden Eagles by holding them to just 32.4% shooting from the field. While Ja Morant gets all the headlines for this team as he pushes up his NBA draft stock, what is underappreciated about this upstart mid-major is their strong half-court defense. Head coach Matt McMahon’s team ranks 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.1% — and they are also 3rd in the nation with their opponents making just 28.4% of their 3-pointers. When playing away on the road or neutral courts, the Racers’ opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45% is 6th best in the country. The Seminoles can struggle with their shooting as their effective field goal percentage of 50.5% ranks 180th in the nation — and they make only 33.4% of their 3-pointers which is 223rd in the nation. Murray State has played 17 of their last 22 games on the road Under the Total after an upset victory. The Racers have also played 5 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or underdog of no more than 6 points. Additionally, Murray State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher. And while the Racers made 9 of their 18 shots from behind the arc against Marquette, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their 3-pointers. Murray State does not rely on the 3 — they are making just 34.8% of their 3-pointers which is 149th in the nation. Led by Morant’s ability to create his own shot or dish to an open teammate, the Racers rank 5th in the nation by making 57.2% of their shots inside the arc. But Morant and this team may face their most difficult test of the season against the deep Seminoles team loaded with long and athletic defenders. Florida State is 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Seminoles’ defense is outstanding inside the arc as they hold their opponents to just a 46.0% field goal percentage with their 2-pointers which is 27th best in the country — and that mark lowered to a measly 41.9% clip in ACC play. Florida State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while their game with Vermont finished Over the 133 point total, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Over the Total. Furthermore, the Seminoles have played 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total played on a neutral court with the number set in the 140s. And while Murray State outscores their opponents by +15.6 PPG, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +12.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Morant is a star in the making — but he will be harassed by a horde of tough defenders from Florida State who will try to coax him to rely on his teammates. The Seminoles will also struggle to score in their half court offense. 25* CBB TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Murray State Racers (839) and the Florida State Seminoles (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-21-19 |
Bradley v. Michigan State UNDER 134.5 |
|
65-76 |
Loss |
-104 |
3 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Bradley Braves (775) and the Michigan State Spartans (776). THE SITUATION: Bradley (20-14) won the Missouri Valley Conference tournament with their 57-54 win over Northern Iowa as a 2-point favorite back on March 10th. Michigan State (28-6) has won five straight games after they won the Big Ten tournament last Sunday with their 65-60 upset win over Michigan as a 1-point underdog. This Eastern regional game is being played on a neutral court in Des Moines.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves eked out this game despite scoring a mere 4 points in the last ten minutes of the first half against the Panthers. Bradley has scored only 15 and 25 points in the first half of their last two games — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. The Braves are in the bottom third in the nation in Offensive Efficiency as their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranks 244th in the nation. While they did finish second in the Missouri Valley Conference in offensive rebounding, they only pulled down 26.3% of their missed shots. They also rank 300th in the nation by making only 46.7% of their shots inside the arc. This spells huge trouble against a Spartans team that is third in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 41.3% shooting percentage inside the arc. Bradley is not likely to have much success shooting from outside either as Sparty limited their Big Ten opponents to just a 30.5% mark from behind the arc. Over their last five games, the Braves scored only 61.2 PPG. But this Bradley team plays solid defense as they ranked fourth in the MVC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they led the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.7%. The Braves held their last five opponents to just a 38.7% shooting clip with their last three opponents scoring no more than 58 points. Bradley has played 6 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in at least two straight games. Overall, the Braves have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 41.1% — and Michigan State has played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total on the road against teams that do not allow their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots. Bradley has played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage over 80%. The Braves have also played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total — and this includes the playing nine of their last ten games Under the Total on a neutral court. Michigan State has seen the Under go 25-9-1 in their last 35 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Spartans have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. This Michigan State team ranks 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. And while the Spartans also score 78.8 PPG, Bradley has played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams who score at least 77 PPG. The Spartans have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: I lean to Michigan State to win in this game but I consider it Fool’s Gold to lay close to 20 points — especially in the NCAA Tournament. The Under is the far better play in this situation. A big challenge Tom Izzo now has is managing his thin bench after the season-ending injury to Kyle Ahrens in the Big Ten championship game leaving the team with only two reliable bench players. Don’t be surprised when Izzo has his team take their foot off the gas pedal to conserve energy for their next game on Saturday. 20* CBB Bradley-Michigan State CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Bradley Braves (775) and the Michigan State Spartans (776). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-21-19 |
Minnesota v. Louisville UNDER 137 |
Top |
86-76 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 12:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (773) and the Louisville Cardinals (774). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (21-13) enters the NCAA Tournament looking to bounce-back from a 76-49 loss to Michigan in the Semifinals of the Big Ten tournament last Saturday as a 9-point underdog. Louisville (20-13) has lost two of their last three games with their 83-70 loss to North Carolina last Thursday as a 7-point underdog. This East regional game is being played in Des Moines, Iowa.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Rick Pitino should have his team play tough defense after they allowed the Wolverines to make 51.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. The Golden Gophers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Minnesota has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. And while that game with Michigan finished below the 131 point total, the Golden Gophers have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Under the Total. Pitino has this team playing better defense to close out the regular season (despite getting stung by Michigan). They have held their last five opponents to just a 42.9% field goal percentage — and those last five opponents made just 32.8% of their shots from behind the arc. Overall, Minnesota has the 40th best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. But this team can struggle to score points especially on the road where they make only 40.7% of their shots which translates into just 63.6 PPG which is over 7 PPG below their season average. The Golden Gophers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 60% — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog. Louisville has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. First-year head coach Chris Miller has this team playing a tough pack-line defense that has the Cardinals ranked 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Louisville will be protecting the rim in this game and daring this Gophers team that makes just 32.1% of their 3-pointers (285th in the nation) to shooting from the outside. The Cardinals have held their last five opponents to just a 37.5% shooting percentage. But Louisville is only making 40.3% of their shots over that span. This team can struggle versus zone defenses that Pitino may have his team deploy at times. The Cardinals rely heavily on 3-point shooting as 43.7% of their shots from the field come from downtown (55th in the nation). But Minnesota defense the perimeter well as they ranked 27th in the nation by limiting their opponents to taking just 33.7% of their shots from behind the arc (27th in the nation) — and only 29.1% of their opponent's points come from 3s. Furthermore, Louisville has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams play a little slower than the national average of 17.5 seconds per possession. Look for Minnesota to play very physical against this Louisville team that is small and can be a bit soft. This should be a grinding low-scoring game to open the Round of 64. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (773) and the Louisville Cardinals (774). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-20-19 |
Arizona State v. St. John's OVER 152.5 |
|
74-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (713) and the St. John’s Red Storm (714). THE SITUATION: St. John’s (21-12) limps into the NCAA Tournament having lost four of their last five games after their 86-54 loss to Marquette in the Big East tournament last Thursday as a 4-point underdog. Arizona State (22-10) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 79-75 loss in overtime to Oregon as a 3-point favorite in the Pac-12 tournament. This First Four game is being played on a neutral court in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Arizona State has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. The Sun Devils are playing their third game since last Thursday which could lead to tired legs on defense — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing their third game in seven days. Arizona State plays at a quick pace — they averaged 16.3 seconds per possession which was the second fastest in the Pac-12. The Sun Devils average 77.8 PPG on offense. They also draw plenty of fouls which tends to help the Over since it allows for points to be scored when the clock is stopped. Arizona State’s opponents have committed at least 23 personal fouls in three straight games — and they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after seeing their opponent commit at least 22 personal fouls in two straight contests. The Sun Devils also foul their opponent in bunches — they ranked 301st in the nation with an opponent’s Free Throw Attempt to Field Goal Attempt ratio of 38.6% with that mark rising to a 39.6% clip in Pac-12 play. When playing away from home, this Arizona State foul rate rises even more to a 41.2% mark. St. John’s made 74.0% of their free throws in Big East play so they have a great potential to generate plenty of points from the line. Additionally, the Sun Devils have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or a favorite of no more than 3 points. St. John’s has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Red Storm has failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. Chris Mullin’s team will be happy to engage in Arizona State’s pace as they played at the twelfth fastest tempo in the nation by averaging just 15.4 seconds per possession. St. John’s average 77.5 PPG. The Red Storm have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against non-conference opponents. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a pick ‘em or an underdog of no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams score over 77 PPG despite having effective field goal percentages outside the Top-100 in the nation. With both teams playing fast with likely plenty of free throw attempts for both sides and with small-ball lineups likely to be deployed (St. John’s plays four guards in their starting lineup), expect a higher scoring game. 10* CBB Arizona State-St.John’s tru-TV Special with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (713) and the St. John’s Red Storm (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-19-19 |
Belmont v. Temple OVER 155 |
Top |
81-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Belmont Bruins (671) and the Temple Owls (672). THE SITUATION: Belmont (26-5) was upset in the Finals of the Ohio Valley Conference tournament back on March 9th by a 77-65 score as a 2-point favorite. Temple (23-9) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 80-74 upset loss to Wichita State as a 1.5-point favorite. The First Four games take place on a neutral court in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bruins shot only 39.1% from the field which was the worst field goal percentage for them in their last 15 games — their second-lowest shooting mark over that span was much higher at 47.3%). This uber-efficient Belmont team is 3rd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 57.8%. They execute Houston Rockets offensive basketball by shunning midrange jump shots for 3-pointers or shots at the rim: they are 2nd in the nation with a 59.5% shooting percentage inside the arc while also averaging 10.5 made 3-pointers per game. They also play at a fast pace as their 15.9 seconds per possession average is the 29th fastest in the nation — and that tempo increased in conference play where they averaged 15.2 seconds per possession. This up-tempo attack generated 64 shot attempts per game — and the Owls have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams that average at least 62 shots per game. The Bruins have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least 10 points. And while Belmont has still covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after covering five or six of their last seven games. The Bruins should find plenty of success attacking the thin Temple frontline that is allowing their opponents to make 52.2% of their shots inside the arc which was second-to-last in the American Athletic Conference. Belmont averages a robust 87.4 PPG this season — and they have played 33 of their last 52 games Over the Total when favored. And while they have played three straight Unders, the Bruins have then played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Belmont has also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite laying no more than 6 points — and they have played their last three games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points on a neutral court. Temple made only 39.1% of their shots in their loss to the Shockers on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Owls has the third best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the AAC while averaging 74.8 PPG for the year. Their trio of starting guards, Shizz Alston, Jr., Quinton Rose, and Nate Pierre-Louis combined to average 49.5 PPG together. Temple has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while this is just their second game since March 9th, the Owls have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when playing no more than their second game in seven days. Furthermore, while Temple has won six of their last eight games, they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Owls finished 3rd in the conference by making 35.3% of their 3-point shots — and this Bruins team allowed their OVC opponents to make 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc which was 9th in the conference. Belmont is an elite passing team that is 7th in the nation by assisting on 61.9% of their made field goals — and they average a 20 Assists-Per-Game. Temple has played 31 of their last 47 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that average at least 16 Assists-Per-Game. The Owls have also played 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Over is 16-4-1 in their last 21 games played on a neutral court — and they have played four of their last five games Over the Total when playing as an underdog or pick ‘em on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: These are two mediocre defensive teams. While Belmont had the 3rd best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Ohio Valley Conference, they were just 127th in that metric for the entire season. Temple ranked 7th in the American Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking 90th overall for the entire season. The Owls also played at the third fastest pace in a conference that has many teams play at a crawl. Expect a higher-scoring game. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Four Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Belmont Bruins (671) and the Temple Owls (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-17-19 |
Canucks v. Stars UNDER 5.5 |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vancouver Canucks (63) and the Dallas Stars (64). THE SITUATION: Vancouver (29-32-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 3-2 loss in overtime to New Jersey on Friday. Dallas (37-29-5) saw their two-game snapped on Friday with their 2-1 loss at home to Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Canucks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring two goals or less in their last game. Vancouver is scoring only 2.6 Goals-Per-Game in their last five games. They go on the road where they are scoring just 2.5 Goals-Per-Game. The Canucks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +151 to +200 price range. They will turn to Jakob Markstrom between the pipes tonight who has a 2.48 Goals-Against-Average along with a .925 save percentage since the All-Star break. Vancouver has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Dallas has seen the Under go 17-4-6 in their last 27 games after allowing two goals or less in their last game. The Stars are allowing just 1.0 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. Anton Khudobin will be in goal tonight after Ben Bishop suffered a lower-body injury. Khudobin has a 2.33 GAA on home ice this season with a .931 save percentage. But this Dallas team is scoring just 2.4 Goals-Per-Game over their last five games. The Stars return home where they are scoring just 2.8 Goals-Per-Game — but they are holding their opponents to only 2.3 Goals-Per-Game. The Under is 18-7-1 in Dallas’ last 26 games on their home ice — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as a money-line favorite priced at -201 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Vancouver will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss at home to the Stars back on December 1st. The Canucks have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total when avenging a loss that was by just one goal. The Under is also 18-8-3 in the last 29 games between these two teams. 10* NHL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Vancouver Canucks (63) and the Dallas Stars (64). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-19 |
Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 230 |
Top |
110-88 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (507) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (508). THE SITUATION: Golden State (46-21) has won two of their last three games with their upset 106-104 win in Houston on Wednesday as a 4-point underdog. Oklahoma City (42-27) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with their 108-106 upset loss in Indiana as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less. This team travels to Oklahoma City likely without the benefit of Kevin Durant who has been downgraded to doubtful for tonight’s game with an ankle injury — and that takes away a big piece of the Golden State offensive attack. As it is, the Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 34 of their last 51 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher. Furthermore, Golden State has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total in their last four contests against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 19 games in the month of March where this team starts to get in playoff mode on the defensive end of the court, Golden State has played 15 of these games Under the Total. Oklahoma City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. This team is playing lower scoring games on both ends of the court as of late. Over their last five games, they are averaging 110.2 PPG on 41.5% shooting from the field while allowing 106.4 PPG on 41.5% shooting — those numbers are all lower than their 114.9 PPG with a 45.7% shooting mark on offense and their 110.9 PPG and 45.8% opponent’s field goal mark on defense for the season. The Thunder return home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. And in their last 18 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, OKC has played 15 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State is looking to avenge an embarrassing 123-95 loss at home to Oklahoma City back on November 21st — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a loss at home. These two teams have played 17 of their last 22 meetings Under the Total which includes 5 of 6 Unders when playing in Oklahoma City. 25* NBA Saturday Prime-Time ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (507) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-19 |
San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 135 |
Top |
57-64 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (627) and the Utah State Aggies (628). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (21-12) reached the Finals of the Mountain West Conference tournament with their 65-56 upset win over Nevada yesterday as a 9-point underdog yesterday. Utah State (27-6) joined them with their 85-60 blowout win over Fresno State as a 4-point favorite yesterday. The MWC tournament takes place in the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas so this is a neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aztecs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win over a conference rival. San Diego State has also played a decisive 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Aztecs made only 42.6% of their shots last night in their victory — yet that was the best shooting effort for them in their last four contests. San Diego State had made only 34.6% and 29.8% of their shots in their previous two contests — and they are shooting just 39.6% from the field over their last five games. This team is very susceptible to experience long scoring droughts. They rank 8th in the MWC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency as they struggle to shoot the basketball: they also rank 8th in the conference with an effective field goal percentage of 49.9%. Much of the Aztecs’ offense comes from second-chance opportunities as they rank 4th in the conference by pulling down 28.4% of their missed shots. But good luck with that against this Aggies team that leads the MWC by limiting their opponents to rebounding just 22.8% of their missed shots. San Diego State does play strong defense as they rank 2nd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have limited their last five opponents to just a 39.2% field goal percentage. Furthermore, the Aztecs have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Utah State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Aggies have the best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the MWC. They have made at least 48.5% of their shots in three straight games while scoring at least 81 points in four straight games. But Utah State has then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in three straight games. And while the Aggies have played four straight Overs, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Furthermore, Utah State has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games this season with the Aggies winning the last meeting by a 70-54 score on their home court back on February 26th. San Diego State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (627) and the Utah State Aggies (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-19 |
CS-Fullerton v. UC-Santa Barbara UNDER 138.5 |
|
64-58 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the CS-Fullerton Mustangs (857) and the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (858). THE SITUATION: CS-Fullerton (15-16) snapped their two-game losing streak yesterday with their 75-71 win in overtime over Cal-Davis as a 1.5-point favorite. UC-Santa Barbara (22-9) has won five of their last six games with their 71-68 win over CS-Northridge as a 5-point favorite yesterday. The Big West tournament is being played at the Honda Center in Anaheim so it is a neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: CS-Fullerton has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a win over a conference rival. This is the Mustangs third game since last Saturday — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing their third game in a week. Additionally, this team has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They also have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 6 straight games on a neutral court Under the Total as an underdog or a pick ‘em. UC-Santa Barbara has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a win over a Big West rival. And while the Gauchos made 7 of their 14 shots from behind the arc, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their 3-pointers in their last game. Moving forward, UC-Santa Barbara has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the Gauchos have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite. Furthermore, UC-Santa Barbara makes only 43.5% of their shots when playing on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Mustangs will be looking to avenge an 82-67 loss at UC-Santa Barbara back on February 23rd. CS-Fullerton has played 15 of their last 19 road games Under the Total when looking to avenge a double-digit loss on the road. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. 20* CBB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the CS-Fullerton Mustangs (857) and the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-14-19 |
UC-Davis v. CS-Fullerton UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
71-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cal-Davis Aggies (763) and the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (764). THE SITUATION: Cal-Davis (11-19) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 71-70 upset loss at home to UC-Riverside last Saturday as a 9-point favorite. CS-Fullerton (14-16) has lost three of their last four games with their 71-59 upset loss at home to Hawai’i as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Big West tournament is played on a neutral court at the Honda Center in Anaheim.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 33 of their last 50 games Under the Total after a loss on their home court. Furthermore, the Under is a decisive 38-16-1 in Cal-Davis’ last 55 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 42-15-1 in their last 58 games after a point spread loss. The Aggies got upset in that game despite them making 52.7% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Cal-Davis ranks only 8th in the Big West in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They also score only 63.7 PPG when playing away from home while making just 41.9% of their shots. But the Aggies should play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing UC-Riverside to nail 52.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them in their last six games. Cal-Davis ranks 3rd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130s. Additionally, the Aggies have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. CS-Fullerton has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Titans have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival — and this includes them playing five of their last six games Under the Total when that loss to a conference rival took place on their home court. Furthermore, Fullerton has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after losing three of their last four games. The Titans play very good defense as they rank 2nd in the Big West in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their opponents to just a 42.6% field goal percentage when playing on the road. But Fullerton only ranks 7th in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making just 42.8% of their shots over their last five games. The Titans have played 7 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: CS-Fullerton will be looking to avenge a 66-59 loss to Cal-Davis back on March 2nd. The Titans have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they failed to score at least 60 points. 25* CBB Big West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cal-Davis Aggies (763) and the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (764). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-14-19 |
Creighton v. Xavier UNDER 141.5 |
Top |
61-63 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Bluejays (683) and the Xavier Musketeers (684). THE SITUATION: Creighton (18-13) has won five straight games after their 91-78 win over DePaul as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Xavier (17-14) has won six of their last seven games with their 81-68 victory over St. John’s as a 2-point favorite. These two teams meet in the Quarterfinals of the Big East taking place at Madison Square Garden which makes this a neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Musketeers winning streak over the last month or so has been due to significantly improved play on the defensive end of the court. Xavier has held their last five opponents to just a 42% field goal percentage. The Musketeers have played 7 of the last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Xavier has also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Musketeers made 51.9% of their shots against the Red Storm which was the best shooting mark in their last five games. But Xavier makes only 44.9% of their shots away from home. The Bluejays allow their opponents to make 45.8% of their shots — but the Musketeers have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Xavier has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. Additionally, the Musketeers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. Creighton has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory on their home court. And while the Bluejays have covered the point spread in five straight games with the last two contests being in games where they were favored, Creighton has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering their last two games as a favorite. Furthermore, the Bluejays have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Creighton is very dependent on making 3-point shots — they are 2nd in the Big East with 48.7% of their field goal attempts being from behind the arc. But while the Bluejays are making 39.6% of their 3-point shots, that clip drops to a 35.8% mark when playing away from home. Creighton has played 21 of their last 31 games on the road Under the Total against conference opponents. The Bluejays have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite of no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: Creighton will also have revenge on their minds after seeing Xavier split their two regular-season games with a 64-61 upset win as a 1-point underdog back on February 13th. The Bluejays have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss by no more than 3 points. 25* CBB Big East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Bluejays (683) and the Xavier Musketeers (684). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-13-19 |
Vanderbilt v. Texas A&M UNDER 133.5 |
|
52-69 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores (657) and the Texas A&M Aggies (658). THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (9-22) enters the SEC tournament coming off an 80-59 loss an LSU on Saturday as a 13-point underdog. Texas A&M (13-17) has lost three of their last four games after their 92-81 loss at Mississippi State last Saturday as an 11-point underdog. The SEC tournament takes place in Bridgestone Arena — home of the Nashville Predators — so this is a neutral court game for both teams with Vandy enjoying a geographical advantage.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commodores have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, Vanderbilt has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a loss where they failed to score at least 70 points. The Commodores made only 41.2% of their shots against the Tigers which was still tied for the best shooting effort in their last four games. Vanderbilt has the SEC’s worst scoring offense in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 38.5% of their shots in their last five games. The Commodores make only 37.8% of their shots on the road which is translating into just 60.2 PPG. The Under is also 25-10-2 in Vandy’s last 37 games played on a neutral court. The Commodores have also played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog. Texas A&M has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival. The Aggies have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Texas A&M made 46.7% of their shots in their win against the Bulldogs which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. This team ranks 11th in the SEC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 41.7% of their shots over their last five games. The Aggies also allowed Mississippi State to make 52.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them in their last ten contests. That game finished Over the 139.5 point total — yet Texas A&M has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Additionally, the Aggies have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Vanderbilt will be looking to avenge a 64-57 loss to the Aggies in College Station in the only meeting between these two teams back on March 2nd. The Commodores have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing with revenge on their minds — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 20* CBB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores (657) and the Texas A&M Aggies (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-13-19 |
Florida Atlantic v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 134 |
Top |
56-57 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (659) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (660). THE SITUATION: FAU (17-14) has lost their last two games with their 76-61 loss at Marshall as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Louisiana Tech (19-12) snapped their two-game losing streak last Wednesday with their 72-69 upset win at Florida Atlantic as a 2-point favorite. The Conference USA tournament takes place in Frisco, Texas which makes this a true neutral home court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Owls have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, FAU experienced a massive scoring drought in the final ten minutes in the first half of their game with the Thunder Herd as they managed only 4 points — and they went into halftime with just 28 points scored overall to neutralize their fast start. The Owls have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after failing to score more than 30 points in the first half of their last game. Scoring is a problem for this team as they rank 11th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in Conference USA — and they are making only 40.4% of their shots over their last five games. This team only makes 40.5% of their shots when playing away from home. FAU is playing very good defense as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just a 37.6% shooting. The Owls rank 2nd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. FAU has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games when playing on a neutral court. Louisiana Tech has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Louisiana Tech made 47.9% of their shots against the stout Owls’ defense which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But this Bulldogs team is just 9th in Conference USA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 41.9% of their shots on the road. But this Louisiana Tech team also plays strong defense as they rank 3rd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are holding their conference foes to a 41.7% field goal percentage. Moving forward, the Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: FAU won the first meeting between these two teams by a 69-61 score back on January 31st — and the Owls have played 10 of the last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a close by 3 points or less. 25* CBB Conference USA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (659) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (660). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-13-19 |
California v. Colorado UNDER 139 |
|
51-56 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (641) and the Colorado Buffaloes (642). THE SITUATION: California (8-22) has won their last three games with their 64-59 win at Stanford last Thursday as an 11-point underdog. Colorado (19-11) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last ten contests with their 78-67 win over USC last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: California has played 6 of the last 8 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win over a Pac-12 rival. The Golden Bears are playing better basketball because of their improved play on the defensive end of the court. They held the Cardinal to just a 35.9% shooting mark — and they have limited three of their last four opponents to no better than a 41.8% shooting percentage. Cal’s last five opponents are making just 43.3% of their shots. But the Bears struggle to score baskets. They are 12th in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have made just 40.6% of their shots against conference opponents. Furthermore, Cal makes only 41.8% of their shots away from home — and they are making just 41.8% of their shots over their last five games. The Golden Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Additionally, Cal has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog. Colorado has played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Their three-game winning streak coincided with all three games being played on their home court. The Buffaloes have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning their last two games at home. And while they have scored 78 and 93 points in their last two games, they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. But now this team goes back on the road for the first time since February 23rd where they are making just 42.9% of their shots. While the Buffaloes’ offense may not travel outside Boulder, their defense should as they rank 4th in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 40.5% field goal percentage. Colorado has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em. The Buffaloes have also played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado won the lone meeting between these two teams back on January 24th by a 68-59 score in Berkeley. Cal has played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss at home to their opponent. These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total. 20* CBB Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (641) and the Colorado Buffaloes (642). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-13-19 |
CS Sacramento v. Northern Arizona UNDER 142.5 |
Top |
72-60 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento State Hornets (671) and the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (672). Sacramento State (14-15) enters the Big Sky Tournament coming off an 86-68 loss at home to Montana last Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. Northern Arizona (10-20) snapped their three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 89-78 upset win at Northern Colorado as a 13-point underdog. The Big Sky tournament is played in Century Link Arena in Boise, Idaho which makes it a true neutral court for both these teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Brian Katz will want his team to improve their efforts on defense after allowing the Grizzlies to make 59.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. The Hornets play pretty good defense away from home as they hold those opponents to just a 44.9% field goal percentage. Sacramento State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while that game with Montana finished above the 137 point Total, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The bigger challenge for this team will be scoring baskets as they rank ninth in the Big Sky in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are making only 41.3% of their shots over their last five games — and they average just 65.3 PPG along with a 41.4% field goal percentage when playing away from home. Furthermore, the Hornets have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Northern Arizona made only 43.7% of their shots on Saturday and still pulled off the upset victory as a double-digit underdog — and yet that was still the best shooting effort for this team in their last three games. The Lumberjacks are making only 41.8% of their shots from the field in their last five games. But this team is playing solid on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to only a 43.5% field goal percentage. Northern Arizona has played 17 of their last 23 games on the road Under the Total after a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. Now this team stays away from home for the fourth straight game where they are making just 43.7% of their shots. The Lumberjacks are just seventh in the Big Sky conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Furthermore, Northern Arizona has played 23 of their last 30 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. The Lumberjacks have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Sacramento State will be motivated by revenge from a 78-66 upset loss to Northern Arizona as a 7-point home favorite back on February 16th — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when looking to avenge an upset loss to their opponent as a home favorite in their last encounter. These two teams have played their 6 straight meetings Under the Total. Lastly, the cherry on top for this situation is that it will be played at 9:30 AM local time. While these early tip-off situations should never be automatic plays since the tendency for teams to be a bit groggy at the unconventional early hour, this still represents only another piece of evidence. In these circumstances, it certainly helps in making a strong Under play even better. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento State Hornets (671) and the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-19 |
St. Mary's v. Gonzaga UNDER 140 |
Top |
60-47 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (615) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (616). THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (21-11) has won six of their last seven games to reach the West Coast Conference tournament championship game with their 69-62 loss to San Diego last night as a 4.5-point favorite. Gonzaga (30-2) comes off a 100-74 win win over Pepperdine last night as a 24-point favorite. This tournament is being played at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas which makes it a true neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs made 59.7% of their shots last night which was the sixth straight games where they made at least 52.8% of their shots. Gonzaga had 26 team assists against the Wave last night as they assisted on a whopping 70.3% of their made field goals — but they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least 24 team assists. The Bulldogs have also played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after playing at least four straight games where they made at least 50% of their shots. Gonzaga enjoyed a 47-26 halftime lead last night — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Under the Total after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. The Bulldogs have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win by at least 20 points — and they have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Gonzaga has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. This Bulldogs team has the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the nation — but they are also an underrated defensive team. They were lax at times in the first two months of the season in their effort — and they were exposed in back-to-back losses to Tennessee and North Carolina. In West Coast Conference play, the Zags limited their opponents to score at just a 0.863 Points-Per-Possession clip. Gonzaga also ranks 7th run the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of just of 44.1% — and that is particularly important when facing this Gaels’ team that relies on their shooting. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and this includes them played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total again teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Head coach Mark Few should have his team focused on playing better on the defensive end of the court after they allowed Pepperdine to make 44.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed in their last nine games. Saint Mary’s made 53.1% of their shots last night in their victory over the Toreros which was the highest shooting mark they have enjoyed in their last nine contests. The Under is then 35-14-2 in the Gaels’ last 51 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 54-24-1 in their last 79 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Saint Mary’s has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. This Gaels’ team has the second best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the West Coast Conference. Moving forward, Saint Mary’s has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga swept the first two meetings between these two teams in the regular season with Saint Mary’s scoring at just a 0.67 PPP and 0.87 PPP rate. The Gaels’ defense improved in the second game after allowing the Zags to torch them for a 1.45 PPP scoring rate. Saint Mary’s improved to see the Bulldogs score at a 1.10 PPP mark which, while still efficient, was below their season average. The Gaels have played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing with at least double revenge. Lastly, these two teams have played 20 of their last 26 meetings Under the Total. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (615) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-19 |
Oregon v. Washington UNDER 126 |
Top |
55-47 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (713) and the Washington Cougars (714). THE SITUATION: Oregon (18-12) has won three straight games with their 72-61 win at Washington State last Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite. Washington (24-6) has won their last two games after they defeated Oregon State on Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ducks have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Oregon has played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total after winning their last two games. Now this team stays on the road where they are scoring only 64.0 PPG on low 40.9% shooting. But the Ducks hold their home hosts to just a 42.9% shooting mark from the field. Head coach Dana Altman’s team has the second best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Pac-12 — and they have held their last vet opponents to just 41.6% shooting. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, Oregon has played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Washington has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 26 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Huskies have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They shot 54% from the field against the Beavers which was the best shooting margin in their last ten games. Washington is only making 44.9% of their shots over their last five games despite that strong shooting effort on Wednesday. The Huskies stay at home where hold their guests to just 59.7 PPG on low 38.8% shooting from the field. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Huskies have the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Pac-12.
FINAL TAKE: Washington won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 24th when they pulled off a 61-56 upset win in Eugene as a 2.5-point underdog. That game finished below the 132 point Total which made it 6 straight Unders between these two teams. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (713) and the Washington Cougars (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-19 |
Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 136.5 |
|
63-75 |
Loss |
-104 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (649) and the Michigan State Spartans (650). THE SITUATION: Michigan (26-4) has won their last two games after losing at home to the Spartans by a 77-70 score back on February 24th despite being a 4.5-point favorite in that game. The Wolverines come off an impressive 69-62 win at Maryland as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Michigan State (24-6) has won six of their last seven games after their 91-76 win over Nebraska as a 13.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The winner of this game clinches at least a share of the Big Ten regular-season title.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Michigan State won the first meeting between these two teams by a 77-70 score as a 4.5-point underdog back on February 24th. That game started at a blistering pace by both sides with the Spartans racing out to a 27-20 lead in the first ten minutes of that game. But the shots began to stop falling and the pace of the game slowed down considerably over the final 30 minutes of that contest with both teams scoring just 50 points apiece. The Spartans come off a big win over Nebraska before this rematch — but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 23-7-1 in Michigan State’s last 31 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Under is 6-2-1 in the Spartans’ last 9 games at home — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total at home against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Michigan will likely be without Charles Matthews again for this game which takes away their third-leading scorer. They have had since Sunday to prepare for this game and to slow down the Spartans offensive attack that made 50% of their shots against them. Only one other team has made at least 50% of their shots against this Wolverines team this season. Michigan has also played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. And in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court, the Under is 8-2-1.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan and Michigan State have the second and third best Adjusted Defensive Efficiencies in the nation. Look for this rematch to play out like the final 30 minutes of their first encounter. 10* CBB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (649) and the Michigan State Spartans (650). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-19 |
Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh UNDER 136.5 |
|
53-56 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (605) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (606). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (13-17) has lost six straight games with their 64-62 loss at home to Clemson on Wednesday as a 4-point underdog. Pittsburgh (12-18) has lost thirteen straight contests after their 76-63 loss at Miami (FL) as a 6-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Irish have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. That game finished below the 133 point Total for that contest — so Notre Dame has now played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total in the month of March. Now the Fighting Irish go back on the road where they are just 2-9 this season while making just 39.9% of their shots. Notre Dame has played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Fighting Irish have also played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Head coach Mike Brey’s team is uncharacteristically ineffective at shooting the basketball this season. Notre Dame is 12th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making just 38.3% of their shots over their last five games. Pittsburgh is hitting only 37.7% of their shots over their last five games — and they rank 13th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Panthers made 43.7% of their shots in their loss to the Hurricanes which, unfortunate for them, was the best offensive shooting for them in their last four games. Pitt has played 36 of their last 51 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss to a conference rival. Now this team returns home where they are 10-7 while playing good defense as they hold their opponents to just a 39.5% shooting percentage. The Panthers have played 27 of their last 37 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a lower scoring game between these two teams that struggle to score points. 20* CBB Saturday Afternoon O/U Tip-Off with Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (605) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (606). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-08-19 |
Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 236 |
Top |
105-122 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (565) and the Golden State Warriors (566). THE SITUATION: Denver (43-21) snapped their three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 115-99 win in Los Angeles over the Lakers as a 5-point favorite. Golden State (44-20) looks to bounce-back from their 128-95 loss to Boston on Tuesday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets made 45.9% of their shots against the Lakers which was the best shooting mark in their last four games. Denver has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Denver stays on the road where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Nuggets have launched at least 92 shots in four straight games — but they have then played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games. Moving forward, Denver has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Nuggets have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 230s. Golden State saw the Celtics make 51% of their shots (along with 41.2% of their 3-pointers) which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 29 games. The Warriors should use that disappointing effort to make some adjustments on the defensive end of the court including choosing a better way for DeMarcus Cousins to position himself against opponent’s 3-point shooting. Golden State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. This is the time of the season where the Warriors start getting more serious about their defense as they have played 25 of their last 31 games Under the Total in the month of March. Additionally, Golden State has seen the Under go 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. And while Golden State shoots 48.8% from the field, Denver has played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total against teams that are making at least 46% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets should be focused on playing better defense against the Warriors after surrendering a whopping 142 points in their 31-point loss to them at home in the Pepsi Center back on January 15th. With this game playing a big role in which of these two teams will finish as the top seed in the Western Conference — and with the home court advantage in the playoffs that this position earns — expect this to be a hard fought game on the defensive end of the court. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (565) and the Golden State Warriors (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-19 |
Blues v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-140 |
4 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (45) and the Anaheim Ducks (46). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (34-25-5) has lost four of their last six games with their 4-1 loss to Dallas on Saturday. Anaheim (26-32-7) has won their last two games after they upset Arizona on the road by a 3-1 score last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blues have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after losing two straight games. Furthermore, the Under is 7-3-3 in St. Louis’ last 13 games when playing with at least three days of rest. And the Under is 36-17-2 in their last 55 games after a game where they did not score more than two goals. The Blues’ offense has slumped without Brayden Schenn in the lineup as they have only scored nine goals over their last six games while netting only three goals in their last two contests. This team does hope to get Schenn back onto the ice tonight — but thus remains a team that has seen the Under go 18-8-2 in their last 28 games on the road. St. Louis has also played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored in the -151 to -200 price range. It remains unclear which goaltender interim head coach Craig Berube will choose between the Jordan Pennington and Jake Allen. After allowing nine goals in their last two games, the Blues’ blue-line needs to play better. Either goalie should play well tonight. Pennington has a 1.68 Goals-Against-Average with a .933 save percentage in 21 games (19 starts) in his red-hot rookie season while the veteran Allen enjoys a 2.37 GAA with a .921 save percentage when playing on the road. St. Louis has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25% to 40% range. The Under is 47-16-2 in Anaheim’s last 65 games after a win — and this includes them playing thirteen of their last fifteen home games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least two goals. The Under is also 40-18-1 in the Ducks’ last 59 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. This has been a nightmare season for this Anaheim team — but don’t blame goalie John Gibson who has a 2.72 GAA at home with a .914 save percentage despite disappointing play from their blue line. In his two stars so far this month, the star goalie has a 1.53 GAA with a .949 save percentage. Gibson will be between the pipes tonight after getting last night off — and the Under is 18-6-2 in the Ducks’ last 26 games when playing without a day of rest. They are still only scoring 1.5 Goals-Per-Game over their last five games — and their 144 combined goals this season is the lowest number in the NHL. They return home where they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 15 of the last 21 games Under the Total as a home underdog. Furthermore, Anaheim has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Ducks will be looking to avenge a 5-1 loss at home to the Blues back on January 23rd — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a loss at home to their opponents. 25* NHL Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (45) and the Anaheim Ducks (46). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-19 |
Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 134 |
Top |
72-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (833) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (834). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (18-12) has lost two straight upset losses in a row after their 83-76 loss at Florida International as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Florida Atlantic (17-12) has won three of their last four games after their 60-54 upset win at North Texas as a 7.5-point underdog last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 21-10-2 in the Bulldogs’ last 33 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total off a road loss to a conference rival. Louisiana Tech has the third-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in Conference USA — but they also have just the 9th best offense in terms of that metric. They have held their last five opponents to just a 42.6% shooting percentage. Now they go on the road where they are scoring only 69.0 PPG while making just 41.6% of their shots from the field. The Under is a decisive 20-5-1 in their last 26 games on the road — and they have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em. Additionally, the Bulldogs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s. Florida Atlantic has seen the Under go 21-9-1 in their last 31 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Owls have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after an upset victory. This will be FAU’s second game in their last eight days — and they have then played 9 straight games Under the Total when playing just for the second time in eight days. The Owls sport the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in Conference USA. They have held their last five opponents to just a 36.6% shooting percentage. But FAU struggles to score baskets as they rank 12th in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 40.1% of their shots over their last five games. The Owls return home where they hold their opponents to only 63.7 PPG on low 40.4% shooting. Yet FAU only makes 42.3% of their shots at home. They have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total — and the Under is also 16-5-1 in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Owls have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech is looking to avenge a 69-61 loss hosting FAU back on January 31st when they were 4.5-point home favorites in that game. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and this includes them playing nine of these last eleven situations Under the Total. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (833) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (834). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-19 |
Missouri v. Georgia UNDER 135.5 |
|
64-39 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Missouri Tigers (781) and the Georgia Bulldogs (782). THE SITUATION: Missouri (13-15) snapped their four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 78-63 win over South Carolina as a 2-point favorite. Georgia (11-18) snapped a nine-game losing streak on Saturday as well with their 61-55 win at Florida as an 11.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers broke out of their slump by shooting 47.4% from the field which was the best shooting mark for them in their last twelve contests. But Missouri has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over a conference rival — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win at home against an SEC foe. The Tigers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Mizzou has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. This team has lacked offensive punch with their expected leading scorer Jontay Porter was declared out the season with an ACL injury. Head coach Cuonzo Martin has a young team with four of his guards in his rotation being freshman or sophomores. The Tigers are 13th in the SEC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 41.2% of their shots over their last five games. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring only 61.9 PPG on 41.5% shooting from the field. Missouri has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Tigers have played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Georgia has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bulldogs have made at least 52.1% of their shots in three straight games after they made 56.1% of their shots against the Gators in what was the best shooting effort in their last ten contests. But Georgia has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. Head coach Tom Crean has seen his team cover point spread expectations in five straight games — but they have then played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after covering five or six of their last seven contests. They return to Athens where they have played 8 of their last 3 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. They do hold their visitors to just a 41.1% field goal percentage. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. Georgia has also played 22 of their last 28 games Under the Total against teams winning 40% to 49% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total. Expect another lower-scoring game. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Missouri Tigers (781) and the Georgia Bulldogs (782). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-19 |
Kentucky v. Ole Miss UNDER 139 |
Top |
80-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (639) and the Mississippi Rebels (640). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (24-5) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with a 71-52 loss at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog. Mississippi (19-10) has lost their last two games after their 74-73 loss at Arkansas as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kentucky has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Wildcats have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning at least fifteen of their last twenty games. Kentucky is without their floor general in senior Reid Travis who is dealing with a knee injury. The Wildcats made only 31.8% of their shots against the Volunteers without Travis running the offense. Head coach John Calipari will want his team to play better on defense tonight. While the 43.8% field goal percentage that the Volunteers achieved was not a bad effort, it was still the worst defensive performance for the Wildcats in their last twelve contests. Kentucky has held their last five opponents to just a 38.5% field goal percentage. The Wildcats stay on the road where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Additionally, Kentucky has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Ole Miss has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Rebels made 53.7% of their shots in that narrow loss to the Razorbacks which was the best shooting mark for them in their last nineteen games. Ole Miss is only making 43.9% of their shots over their last five contests. They have also played four straight games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games Under the Total. They return home where they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Rebels have played 8 of their last home games Under the Total as a pick ‘em or underdog of no more than 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: With Kentucky without Travis, expect this to be a lower-scoring contest. 25* CBB Super Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (639) and the Mississippi Rebels (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-19 |
Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL UNDER 136 |
Top |
63-76 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (627) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (628). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (12-17) has lost twelve games in a row with their 73-49 loss at Virginia on Saturday as an 18-point underdog. Miami (FL) (12-16) has lost their last two games after their 87-57 loss at Duke as a 15-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers have played 36 of their last 51 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Pittsburgh has also played 13 of the last 17 games Under the Total after failing to score at least 55 points in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to reach at least 50 points in their last contest. The Panthers are making only 34.2% of their shots over their last five games — and they are 13th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. More importantly, when playing on the road, head coach Jeff Capel needs to his team to play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Cavaliers to make 58.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. Pitt has played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. The Panthers score only 65.5 PPG away from home while making only 38.9% of their shots. Furthermore, the Panthers have played a decisive 38 of their last 55 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 30 of their last 42 games Under the Total as an underdog. Miami has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after suffering at least two straight losses to conference opponents. Miami also comes off a disappointing defensive effort as they allowed the Blue Devils to make 57.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Hurricanes have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. This has been a disappointing season for head coach Jim Larranaga with injuries and the declaration of their best player, Dewan Hernandez, being declared ineligible after accepting payments from an agent. Hernandez never took the court this season and has already declared that he will make himself eligible for the NBA draft in June. Without him anchoring the offense, this team cannot score. Miami is 10th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 38.0% of their shots over their last five games. The Hurricanes return home where they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight encounters Under the Total. With both these programs struggling to score baskets this season while coming off disappointing efforts on defense, expect another lower-scoring game. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (627) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-03-19 |
Wolves v. Wizards OVER 238 |
Top |
121-135 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 6:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (585) and the Washington Wizards (586). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (29-33) has lost two straight games with their 122-115 loss at Indiana as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday. Washington (25-37) has lost five of their last six games with their 107-96 loss at Boston as a 9.5-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Minnesota is shooting 47.2% from the field over their last five games which has translated into 118.6 PPG — but they are also allowing 120.4 PPG over these last five games as well. The T-Wolves have played a decisive 33 of their last 49 games Over the Total with the Total set at least at 220. Now Minnesota goes back on the road where they have played of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They are 9-23 overall on the road where they are allowing 115.1 PPG — but they are scoring 111.1 PPG away from home. Defending the arc has been a problem for the T-Wolves when playing on the road as their home hosts are shooting 38.9% from behind the arc. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total against Eastern Conference opponents. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams from the Western Conference. The Over is a decisive 43-21-1 in their last 65 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. The Over is also 45-20-1 in the Wizards’ last 66 games after a point spread loss. Washington is playing at a blistering pace as of late — they are averaging 105.0 possessions per 48 minutes over their last ten games which is the third fastest pace in the league. Over their last five games, the Wizards are allowing their opponents to make 48.8% of their shots which has resulted in 118.8 PPG allowed. Washington returns home where they are 16-12 while making 48.5% of their shots this season which has resulted in 117.6 PPG. But the Wizards are also allowing their visitors to 114.5 PPG. Washington has played 4 straight games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Wizards have played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the number set at least at 220.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Over the Total when playing with Washington. While the Over/Under is set in the high-230s to low-240s, expect this game to topple that number between two teams that play at a fast pace while privileging offense over defense. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (585) and the Washington Wizards (586). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-02-19 |
Southern Utah v. Montana OVER 147 |
|
54-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (793) and the Montana Grizzlies (794). THE SITUATION: Southern Utah (14-12) has won two straight games as well as five of their last seven contests with their 85-76 win over Idaho on Wednesday. Montana (20-7) saw their ten-game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 74-72 upset loss to Northern Colorado as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after an upset loss. Montana has also played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss by 3 points or less. The Grizzlies have also played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Montana stays at home where they are 10-2 while scoring 79.3 PPG with a nice 49.2% field goal percentage. The Grizzlies lead the Big Sky Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and effective field goal percentage due to their hitting 40.1% of their shots from behind the arc which is also the top mark in the conference. Montana is making 51% of their shots over their last five games. But the Grizzlies are also allowing their last five opponents to make 47% of their shots. Montana has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Southern Utah has played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They defeated the Vandals on Wednesday despite making only 41.7% of their shots from the field which was the worst shooting effort for them in their last five games. The Thunderbirds go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Southern Utah has also played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60% to 80% range. And in their last 15 games with the Total set in the 140s, the game finished Over the Total 12 times.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah is looking to avenge an 89-76 loss at home to Montana as a 10.5-point underdog back on December 31st — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total. 20* CBB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (793) and the Montana Grizzlies (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-02-19 |
Stars v. Blues UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (79) and the St. Louis Blues (80). THE SITUATION: Dallas (32-27-5) has won two of their last three games after their 4-3 win in Los Angeles against the Kings on Thursday. St. Louis (34-24-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 5-2 loss at Carolina yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 17-6-4 in the Stars’ last 27 games after a victory. Dallas has also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Despite their four goals against the hapless Kings, the Stars are scoring just 2.1 Goals-Per-Game over their last seven contests. They stay on the road where the Under us 21-7-5 in their last 33 games — and the Under is 8-1-3 in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record on their home ice. Furthermore, Dallas played 17 of their last 18 road games Under the Total with the number set at 5.5. The Under is also 13-4-4 in the Stars’ last 21 road games as an underdog — and the Under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games when priced in the +110 to +150 price range. Ben Bishop should be between the pipes tonight. He has been outstanding since returning from an injury as he owns a 1.81 Goals-Against-Average with a .947 save percentage in his five starts since the All-Star Break. St. Louis has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least five goals in their last game. The Under is also 35-17-2 in the Blues’ last 54 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. Furthermore, St. Louis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. The Blues are scoring only 1.8 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. But they return home where they have won seven straight contests while giving up just 11 goals in those games. St. Louis will turn to their rookie phenom, Jordan Binnington, in goal tonight. Binnington is 15-2 this season with a 1.61 GAA along with a .936 save percentage in 19 games which includes 17 starts. Additionally, the Under is 12-4-1 in the Blues’ last 17 home games as a favorite priced in the -151 to -200 range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (79) and the St. Louis Blues (80). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-01-19 |
Siena v. Canisius UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
62-68 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (863) and the Canisius Golden Griffins (864). Siena (15-14) has won two straight games with their 67-55 win over Marist last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Canisius (13-16) has lost two straight contests after their 86-84 loss to Niagara as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have seen the Under go 19-6-2 in their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 straight games Under the Total after a win over a Metro Athletic Association team. Siena has also played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Saints has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. Additionally, while Siena has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their previous two contests. Now after playing their last four games at home, the Saints goes back on the road for the first time since February 10th. The Under is 5-1-1 in Siena’s last 7 road games after playing at least their last three games at home. They are making just 42.7% of their shots when playing away from home — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road. The Saints have also played 4 straight games against teams with a losing record on their home court — and the Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Siena has the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the MAAC — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 42.6% field goal percentage. The Saints have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. Canisius has played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range. The Golden Griffins have seen the Under go 15-7-1 in their last 23 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 17-8-2 in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Canisius has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Now after losing three of their last four games, the Golden Griffins have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Canisius made 52.5% of their shots against the Purple Eagles on Wednesday after making 51.7% of their shots at Iona in their previous game after shooting a miserable 29.8% from the field three games ago at Monmouth. The Golden Griffins have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after shooting at least 50% from the field in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Siena is looking to avenge a 70-66 loss to Canisius back on January 5th — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (863) and the Canisius Golden Griffins (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-19 |
West Ham United v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-114 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (2000157) and Manchester City (2000158). THE SITUATION: West Ham (10-6-11) enters this English Premier League match coming off a 3-1 win over Fulham last Friday. Manchester City (21-2-4) returns to EPL action after they blasted Chelsea by a 6-0 score back on February 10th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City is playing with plenty of momentum right now as they nip at the heels of Liverpool at the top of the EPL table. The Citizens have scored 17 goals over their last five EPL matches — and they have scored nine goals in their last two matches which were against two Power-Six clubs in Chelsea and Arsenal. Man City has scored at least three goals in four of their last five games as well as five of their last seven matches. Furthermore, they have seen at least four combined goals scored in nine of their last ten matches when playing at home. They lead in the EPL in goals scored and goals scored at home in Etihad Stadium. The Citizens also lead the league in average shots on goal with 17.1 per games — and they also lead the EPL with 20.4 shots per game when playing at home. With Gabriel Jesus dealing with an injury, it looks to be a certainty that manager Pep Guardiola will be playing his best attacker, Sergio Aguero, who will be looking to secure his third straight hat trick when playing on his home pitch. It should be another big scoring day for Man City who is averaging 3.5 Goals-Per-Game in their home ten home matches against non-Power Six sides this season. West Ham does surrender plenty of shot attempts: they allow 13.3 shots per game which is the seventh most in the league — and that number rises to 16.2 shots allowed per game which is sixth worst in the EPL. The Hammers have played only two matches on the road against Power-Six sides where they allowed seven combined goals. The deeper metrics suggest that West Ham has been fairly fortunate in the goals they have allowed. The Hammers have surrendered 40 goals this season but the Expected Goals allowed metric raises that number to 43.05. Furthermore, West Ham has allowed 20 goals this season when playing on the road — but the Expected Goals allowed when playing on the road rises to 23.50. This will be manager Manuel Pellegrini’s first trip back to the Etihad after he was sacked as the Man City manager in 2016. Pellegrini embraces an aggressive style — he wants his team to attack rather than park the bus in the back. Once Man City takes the lead, the goals should keep coming with the Hammers having a decent chance of securing one of the goals to reach our target of four combined goals.
FINAL TAKE: Man City is clicking on all cylinders right now. If they do not score the four goals themselves in this contest, there is a good chance that West Ham will add goal themselves to the total. 25* EPL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (2000157) and Manchester City (2000158). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-19 |
Wisconsin v. Indiana UNDER 126 |
|
73-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (633) and the Indiana Hoosiers (634). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (19-8) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last ten contests with their 69-64 win at Minnesota as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Indiana (13-14) has lost five straight contests after their 76-70 loss at Iowa as a 7.5-point underdog last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Badgers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Wisconsin shot 45.5% from the field in that game which was actually the best shooting effort in their last five games. Too often, this team becomes reliant on jump shooting as a second option to Ethan Happ working the post. Happ has nice moves down low — but he cannot shoot the basketball and has become such a liability at the free throw line that head coach Greg Gard has benched in critical situations. The Badgers do not pass the ball enough — they rank 11th in the Big Ten by assisting on just 46.4% of their field goals. They have not produced more than 12 assists in each of their last two games — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after failing to produce more than 12 team assists in two straight games. Over their last five games, Wisconsin is making only 40.7% of their shots from the field. But what this team is doing well is playing defense as they rank 6th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Now they stay on the road where they are 9-5 while holding their opponents to just 60.8 PPG on low 38.78% shooting from the field. The Badgers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Indiana has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and this includes playing six straight games at home Under the Total after a loss. And while their loss at Iowa finished Over the 145.5 point total, the Hoosiers have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Indiana is making only 39% of their shots during their five-game losing streak with Romeo Langford being a big disappointment in his freshman season. But the Hoosiers play tough defense particularly at home where they are allowing only 61.3 PPG on low 39.6% shooting from the field. Indiana has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low scoring game between these two teams who rely on their defense to keep them competitive. 10* CBB Wisconsin-Indiana ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (633) and the Indiana Hoosiers (634). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-19 |
Stanford v. Arizona UNDER 140.5 |
|
54-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (843) and the Arizona Wildcats (844). THE SITUATION: Stanford (14-12) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 80-62 loss at Arizona State as an 8.5-point underdog. Arizona (15-12) snapped their seven-game losing streak on Thursday with their 76-51 win at home over California as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinal were without their best player in 6’9 big man K.Z. Okpala who seems to have rolled his ankle and did not even attempt to test it in pregame warmups. Okpala may be the most intriguing NBA talent out of the entire Pac-12 — he is averaging 17.4 PPG with 5.8 RPG this season. He is listed as questionable for tonight with no updates on the twitter machine as of this writing. I was looking at taking Stanford in this game but his questionable status precludes that as a reasonable option given how poorly the Cardinal played without him on Wednesday. But the things I look for with an Under play remain solid in this spot — and those metrics assume that Okpala would play. This Under is even better if Okpala is kept out again (and I would assume head coach Jerod Haase would be extra cautious with his star player since the Cardinal are way off the bubble). Even with Okpala, Stanford ranks just 8th in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But Stanford shot just 37.5% from the field without Okpala against the Sun Devils. They allowed Arizona State to make 51.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them all season. Look for harder work on that end of the court tonight. The Cardinal has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by at least double-digits. Stanford has also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they are scoring only 67.2 PPG while making just 41.9% of their shots. The Cardinal has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Arizona made 49.1% of their shots against Cal which was the best offensive effort in their last ten games. But they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Wildcats are 10th in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are shooting just 41.4% from the field in their last five games. Sean Miller’s team lacks the playmakers that he has enjoyed in the past. His team is making only 44.1% of their shots inside the arc which is last in the Pac-12. This Arizona team may be more perimeter oriented this season as a result — but one thing this Cardinal defense does is take away 3-point shooting. Stanford leads the Pac-12 with their opponents taking only 27.8% of their shots from behind the arc — and they also are tops in the conference with only 26.3% of their opponent’s points coming from 3-pointers. The Wildcats stay at home where they are 11-4 but making only 44.1% of their shots. They do hold their visitors to just a 40.7% field goal percentage — and they should feel encouraged to holding the Golden Bears to just a 30.4% shooting mark. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: This season was already going to be a challenge for Miller after losing the five starters — and top five scorers — from last year’s team. To compound matters, one of his top two leading scorers in freshman Brandon Williams is out indefinitely with a knee injury. 10* CBB Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (843) and the Arizona Wildcats (844). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-19 |
Flames v. Senators OVER 6 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-114 |
2 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Calgary Flames (61) and the Ottawa Senators (62). THE SITUATION: Calgary (38-16-3) has won four games in a row with their 2-1 win at home versus Anaheim on Friday. Ottawa (22-34-5) has lost three straight games after their loss at home to Columbus by a 3-0 score on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 11-2-1 in the Flames’ last 14 games after a win — and they have also played 11 of the last 13 games after a win by just one goal. Furthermore, the Over is 8-1-1 in Calgary’s last 10 games after scoring no more than two goals — and the Over is also 13-6-1 in their last 20 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last contest. The Flames offense is clicking right now as they have averaged 3.6 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests — and they have scored 16 combined goals over their last four games. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 3.2 Goals-Per-Game. Calgary has played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as the favorite. Furthermore, the Flames have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when a big favored priced at least at -201. I am getting conflicting reports on the goalies for this game — for both teams — but I don’t care. Goaltending is a weakness for the Flames. Mike Smith has a 2.93 Goals-Against-Average with a subpar .903 save percentage on the road. David Rittich has been a disaster since the All-Star break with a 4.24 GAA and a .853 save percentage in four starts. Ottawa’s Craig Anderson has a 3.81 GAA with a .884 save percentage in four games (three starts) since the All-Star Break while Anders Nilsson has a 3.46 GAA with a .906 save percentage in eight starts since the break. Over their last five games, they are allowing 4.2 Goals-Per-Game. The Senators have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by at least two goals. Furthermore, Ottawa has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after being shutout in their previous two games. They also have been just what the doctor ordered for teams coming off less than stellar offensive efforts as they have seen the Over go 34-15-2 against opponents that did not score more than two goals in their last game. The Senators are scoring a healthy 3.2 Goals-Per-Game at home this season — but they are allowing 3.1 Goals-Per-Game as well. Lastly, the Over is 20-5-1 in Ottawa’s last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Ottawa is undermanned after trading Matt Duchene and with Mark Stone sitting out since he might be dealt by the trade deadline tomorrow. But I do see the Senators breaking the scoring drought while Calgary should not at least four goals. 10* NHL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Calgary Flames (61) and the Ottawa Senators (62). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-19 |
Michigan State v. Michigan UNDER 134 |
Top |
77-70 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (833) and the Michigan Wolverines (834). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (22-5) has won four straight games with their 71-60 win over Rutgers on Wednesday as a 15.5-point favorite. Michigan (24-3) has won four of their last five games with their 69-60 win at Minnesota on Thursday as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans have seen the Under go 22-6-1 in their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on their home court. Furthermore, Michigan State has played 9 straight games Under the Total after winning two straight games against fellow Big Ten opponents. This is a team hit hard by two big injuries. Joshua Langford is out the season with an ankle injury while Nick Ward is out indefinitely with a hand injury. That leaves much of the offensive burden on guard Cassius Winston — and he was absolutely owned last year by the Wolverines’ elite defender Xavier Simpson. In their two upset losses to Michigan last season, Winston made only 6 of his 17 shots from the floor while going 1 for 6 from behind the arc while averaging just 11.0 PPG with 3.5 assists. Scoring is going to be hard to come by for Sparty in this game as they are making only 44.8% of their shots over their last five games dealing with these injuries — they will have to rely on their strong defensive play to stay competitive in this game. Michigan State goes on the road where they do hold their home hosts to just a 38.8% field goal percentage. The Spartans have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Under is also 13-3-1 in Michigan State’s last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Under is also 18-7-1 in Michigan’s last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Wolverines have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This is Michigan’s just second game since last Saturday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in eight days. The Wolverines return home where they are 16-0 this season while holding their visitors to just a 39.7% field goal percentage. Michigan has played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. This Wolverines team can suffer through cold stretches on offense. While Simpson is one of the best defensive players in the nation, he is not a threat from his outside shooting which allows opposing defenses to play off him and help on other players. John Beilein offenses emphasize 3-point shooting but they are making only 33.2% of their 3-pointers in Big Ten play (7th in the conference).
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play outstanding defense: the Spartans rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while the Wolverines rank 2nd in the nation in that metric. These teams do not like each other — and this is a very heated rivalry after Michigan upset them twice last season. This will slow and physical with the first team to reach 60 points the likely winner. 25* CBB Sunday CBS-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (833) and the Michigan Wolverines (834). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-19 |
St. Mary's v. San Diego UNDER 131.5 |
|
66-46 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (743) and the San Diego Toreros (744). THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (18-10) has won five of their last six games after their 58-32 win at Pacific on Thursday as an 8.5-point favorite. San Diego (17-11) snapped their three-game losing streak on Thursday with their 63-52 win over Portland as a 16.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Gaels have seen the Under go a decisive 34-15-2 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win. Saint Mary’s has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a West Coast Conference rival. The Gaels stay on the road where they are making only 42.6% of their shots. Saint Mary’s is also only making 42.0% of their shots over their last five games. The Under is 49-18-1 in the Gaels’ last 68 games on the road — and they have played fourteen of their last nineteen games Under the Total when playing away from home. The Under is also 39-11-1 in Saint Mary’s last 51 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, the Gaels have played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total as the favorite. San Diego has seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while the Toreros have played two straight Unders, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing two straight games Under the Total. Over their last five games, San Diego is making only 42.6% of their shots. Now they return home where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games on their home court. The Toreros have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, San Diego has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Gaels’ 76-59 win over the Toreros back on January 9th. San Diego has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss. These two teams have paid 4 straight Unders — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in San Diego. 10* CBB Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (743) and the San Diego Toreros (744). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-19 |
Nets v. Hornets OVER 227 |
Top |
117-115 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (537) and the Charlotte Hornets (538). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (30-30) has lost three of their last four games with their 113-99 loss to Portland on Thursday as a 3-point underdog. Charlotte (28-30) returned from the All-Star break last night with a 123-110 win over Washington as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nets have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. That game also finished far below the 231.5 point total — and Brooklyn has then played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. The Nets made only 39.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Brooklyn should see an uptick in their offensive productivity with Caris LeVert back in the mix — this will be his fifth game since returning to the court after suffering that gruesome leg injury. The Trail Blazers were also dealing with rust in their shooting as they shot just 43.8% from the field which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in the Nets’ last five contests. Brooklyn has still allowed their last five opponents to shoot 49.1% from the field. The Nets now go on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have also played 22 of their last 29 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Hornets allow 111.3 PPG, Brooklyn has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allow at least 106 PPG. Charlotte’s five starters logged in 166:56 combined minutes last night — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing the previous day where their five starters combined to play at least 160 minutes. Head coach James Borrego made an intriguing change in the lineup last night by moving Jeremy Lamb to the second unit to make room for their first-round draft pick Miles Bridges at forward with Nicolas Batum shifting to the shooting guard spot. The early results were very encouraging with Batum scoring 20 points and Bridges adding another 14 points. Lamb will be asked for instant offense leading the second unit alongside their veteran point guard Tony Parker — Lamb pitched in another 16 points last night off the bench. Overall, they shot a solid 47.9% from the field as a team while holding a cold shooting Wizards team to just a 43.3% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last four games and far below their opponent’s field goal percentage of 47.9% for the season. The Hornets stay at home where they have played 18 of their last 23 home games Over the Total when playing just their second game in eight days. Additionally, Charlotte has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against fellow Eastern Conference opponents. The Hornets have also played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. This team plays at a blistering pace which has helped them launch at least 90 shots in three straight games with them attempting 94 and 96 shots in their last two contests. Charlotte has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games. The Nets play at a fast pace as well which translates into 90 shot attempts per game — and the Hornets have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents that laugh at least 88 shots per game. Brooklyn allows their opponents to score 112.7 PPG — and Charlotte has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow at least 110 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn has averaged 104.8 possessions per 48 minutes over their last ten games which leads the NBA over that span. With the Hornets happy to engage in that up-tempo style, expect a high scoring game between these two teams that tend to struggle on the defensive end of the court. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (537) and the Charlotte Hornets (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-19 |
Hurricanes v. Stars UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 5:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (39) and the Dallas Stars (40). THE SITUATION: Carolina (32-23-4) has won four of their last five games with their 4-3 win at Florida on Thursday. Dallas (30-25-5) snapped their three-game losing streak on Thursday with their 5-2 win over St. Louis.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hurricanes have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a victory. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games on the road where both teams scored at least three goals. Now they stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home ice. Carolina is playing outstanding defense as of late for first-year head coach Rod Brind’Amour as they are allowing only 1.4 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. Brind’Amour will likely tap Curtis McElhinney to be between the pipes tonight after Petr Mrazek played on Thursday. McElhinney has been outstanding since the All-Star Game as he owns a 1.80 Goals-Against-Average over his last five starts with a .942 save percentage in those contests. The Hurricanes opened as small money-line underdog but now have bet down to a mutual -110 money-line favorite with the Stars — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored in the -110 to 1-50 price range. Dallas has seen the Under go 13-3-3 in their last 19 games after a victory — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after scoring at least five goals in their last contest. Additionally, the Stars have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where at least seven combined goals were scored. That offensive came out of nowhere as they have scored only ten combined goals in their previous six contests. Dallas is averaging only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. They stay at home where they at home where they have played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when favored in the -110 to -150 price range — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Ben Bishop returns to action tonight after he missed a couple weeks with an injury. He had been playing great as he owned a 1.67 GAA along with a .947 save percentage in his previous three starts since the All-Star break. Bishop also enjoys a 2.17 GAA in his twenty starts at home this year with a strong .929 save percentage in those contests.
FINAL TAKE: Look for this to be a lower-scoring contest. 25* NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (39) and the Dallas Stars (40). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-19 |
Louisiana-Monroe v. Texas-Arlington UNDER 138.5 |
Top |
86-91 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UL-Monroe Warhawks (659) and the UT-Arlington Mavericks (660). THE SITUATION: UL-Monroe (14-11) has won three of their last four games with their 63-60 win at Texas State on Thursday as a 5-point favorite. UT-Arlington (12-15) has lost three straight games after suffering their second straight upset loss on Thursday when they lost at home to UL-Lafayette by a 76-64 score as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mavericks on Thursday in a situation I really liked — so that result was a big disappointment. But in researching that game, it afforded me the opportunity to dig deep into what Chris Ogden is doing with this UT-Arlington program in his first year as their head coach. Ogden inherited only 15% of the minutes from UT-Arlington’s senior-laden team the year before. After working as an assistant for Chris Beard at Texas Tech and Rick Barnes both at Texas and Tennessee, it is clear that Ogden knows how to teach defense. The Mavericks lead the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and in opponent’s effective field goal percentage. After allowing Arkansas State to shoot 51.9% from the field, I expected a much better defensive effort — and I was correct on that front as UT-Arlington held the Ragin’ Cajuns to just a 40.6% field goal percentage. The problem was that the Mavericks made only 42.9% of their shots against a Red Wolves team that does not play good defense. Unfortunately for Ogden, that field goal percentage was still their best shooting mark in their last three contests. This is simply not a good shooting team — they are last in the Sun Belt in both effective field goal percentage and Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. What UT-Arlington does best on offense is crash the boards as they rank 3rd in the conference by pulling down 32.1% of their missed shots. I thought this is where they would dominate Louisiana (and they did pull down 10 offensive boards representing a 30.3% rate). But getting second-chance scoring opportunities will be much harder this afternoon against this War Hawks team that leads the Sun Belt by holding their opponents to just a 25.0% offensive rebound rate. The Mavericks will have to lean on their defense — they have held their last five opponents to just a 39.2% shooting mark. UT-Arlington has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after suffering two straight point spread losses. Additionally, UT-Arlington has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And while their loss to the Ragin’ Cajuns finished below the 150.5 point total, the Mavericks have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. UT-Arlington stays at home where they are 7-5 this season but where they are making only 40.7% of their shots. The Mavericks have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. UL-Monroe has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less against conference rivals. The Warhawks have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. UL-Monroe made 49.1% of their shots in that game — and they have made at least 47.5% of their shots in three straight games. But the Warhawks have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after shooting at least 47.5% of their shots in three straight contests. Head coach Keith Richard emphasizes 3-point shooting — his team is second in the Sun Belt by collecting 37.9% of their points from 3-pointers. But Ogden has been very good teaching his team to defend the arc and force opposing shooters to take low percentage jump shots inside the arc. Only 30.9% of their opponent’s points are coming from made 3-pointers which is the third-best mark in the conference — and UT-Arlington then leads the conference by holding their opponents to just a 46.2% field goal percentage inside the arc. UL-Monroe stays on the road where they are 3-10 while making only 42.7% of their shots. The Warhawks have played 39 of their last 55 road games Under the Total — and they have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Furthermore, UL-Monroe has played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total in Sun Belt play. And in their last 38 road games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, the game finished Under the Total 28 times — and this includes ten Unders in these last thirteen situations.
FINAL TAKE: Expect this to be a defensive battle between two teams that struggle to make shots. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UL-Monroe Warhawks (659) and the UT-Arlington Mavericks (660). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-19 |
Crystal Palace v. Leicester UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-134 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Crystal Palace (200021) and Leicester City (200022). THE SITUATION: Crystal Palace (7-6-13) returns to the pitch after a 1-1 draw with West Ham in their last English Premier League match back on February 9th. Leicester City (9-5-12) looks to bounce-back from a 3-1 loss at Tottenham back on February 10th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Crystal Palace is unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions — and they are getting it done with strong defensive play. The Eagles have scored only four goals in their last three EPL contests — but they have surrendered just two goals in those contests. Crystal Palace goes on the road where they are 4-2-7 this season while scoring 18 goals and surrendering 22 goals. But the deeper metrics indicate they should be playing lower scoring games when playing in hostile territory. Their Expected Goals scored number drops significantly to just 13.72 goals in those thirteen contests — and their Expected Goals allowed also drops to 18.66. Looking closer, a disproportionate number of the goals being scored when the Eagles are on the road are in matches versus the Power Six clubs. In their nine matches on the road against non-Power Six sides, Crystal Palace has scored 11 goals while allowing only 13 goals which is right on track for an Under in this contest. Leicester City is winless in their last five EPL matches. They are struggling to find the back of the net as they have scored only two goals over their last three matches. Manager Claude Puel chose not to start his best attacker, Jamie Vardy, in that last match against the Spurs. Vardy did come on as a substitute and scored the Foxes loan goal — but it is not clear if he is in the doghouse or if Puel is simply dissatisfied with his effort. Leicester City returns home where they are 4-2-6 this season. They have only scored 13 goals in their last twelve home matches which the fourth lowest in the EPL. But the Foxes have allowed only 13 goals at home as well so they are used to playing tight, low-scoring matches on their pitch. In their last three home contests, Leicester City has scored only one goal while surrendering four. Puel has his team playing a defensive-oriented strategy. In their seventeen matches against non-Power Six sides, the Foxes have allowed only 19 goals. Goals are even harder to come by when Leicester City is hosting a non-Power Six team. In those fourteen matches, the Foxes have scored 13 goals and allowed 13 goals to produce an average that is below 2.0 combined goals per game. Furthermore, in their last five home matches against non-Power Six sides, Leicester City has scored 5 times while allowing only 4 goals.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams do a good job of limiting their opponents shot opportunities. Crystal Palace is 7th in the EPL by allowing 12.5 shots per game. Leicester City is 5th in the league by allowing only 11.6 shots per game — and that number drops to just 10 shots per game when they are playing at home at King Power Stadium which is the 4th best mark in the English Premier League. 25* EPL Saturday NBC-TV O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between Crystal Palace (200021) and Leicester City (200022). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-19 |
Air Force v. Fresno State UNDER 136.5 |
|
64-61 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Air Force Falcons (831) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (832). THE SITUATION: Air Force (10-15) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 76-62 loss to Utah State as a 10-point underdog on Saturday. Fresno State (19-6) has won three in a row along with five of their last six games with their 81-73 win at New Mexico on Saturday where they were 2-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Air Force has played a decisive 46 of their last 71 games Under the Total after a loss at home. And while the Falcons have allowed at least 76 points in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 75 points in three straight contests. This team struggles to score baskets — they rank last in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while also ranking last in Free Throw Rate, 3-point shooting and second-to-last in Offensive Rebounding. They face a Bulldogs team that holds their opponents to just a 41.5% field goal percentage — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42.5% or less. But while Fresno State shoots 45.7% from the field, Air Force has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. Now the Falcons go on the road where they are scoring only 62.4 PPG on low 43.5% shooting. Air Force has played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% on their games at home — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting at least +12.5 points. Fresno State has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a victory over a conference rival on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now the Bulldogs return home where they are 11-3 while holding their opponents to a low 39.9% field goal percentage. Fresno State has played 6 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Bulldogs have also played 5 of their last games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 10 of their last 12 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 meetings at Fresno State Under the Total. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 10* CBB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Air Force Falcons (831) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (832). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-19 |
North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 165.5 |
Top |
88-72 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (819) and the Duke Blue Devils (820). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (20-5) has won eight of their last nine games after their 95-57 win at Wake Forest as a 17-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (23-2) has won nine games in a row with their 94-78 win over North Carolina State as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It is certainly tempting to expect a high-scoring game between these two offensive juggernauts that play at the 3rd and 11th fastest paces in the nation. However, the Over tends to be overvalued in situations like this by the betting public. While my handicapping is very much informed by empirical situational angles, I rarely include them in my (already too long) Reports. I will share two historical angles that speak loudly to tonight’s situation with the Total set in the mid-160s. North Carolina and Duke are two elite teams that are outscoring their opponents by +12.2 PPG and +20.3 PPG — yet when teams that are outscoring their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG in the second half of the season with the Total set in the 160s, the game has then finished Under the Total in 72 of the last 106 (68%) situations where these conditions applied. This simple angle exposes two truths: (1) elite teams also tend to play very good defense and (2) the pressure inherent in heavyweight matchups tends to negatively impact shooting. Furthermore, great teams tend to rebound the ball well which leads to extending offensive possessions (with a new shot clock) and short-circuited the opponent’s offensive possessions (who often rely on second-chance points for their effectiveness). The Tar Heels and the Blue Devils out-rebound their opponents by +9.4 RPG and +7.2 RPG — and after 15 games into the season in contests between two teams that out-rebound their opponents by at least +6.0 RPG with the Total set in the 160s, the game finished Under the Total in 26 of these last 34 (77%) situations. Both these teams play outstanding defense: North Carolina is 20th in the nation Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while Duke ranks 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Tar Heels have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Blue Devils have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Both these teams have significant flaws on offense that their opponent will attempt to expose tonight. Bettors may still remember Duke’s torrid 3-point shooting in their high-profile showdown with Virginia two Saturdays ago where they nailed 13 of 21 (62%) of their shots from behind the arc. But the Regression Gods have since visited the Blue Devils as they have since made only 10 of their 44 (22.7%) of their 3-point attempts in their next two games. Duke is 305th in the nation with a 31.3% mark from behind the arc — and that number drops even further to a 30.5% clip in ACC play. My concerns for North Carolina on offense are qualitative when facing outstanding opponents. Roy Williams wants to play two traditional big men still — yet his best five on the court probably requires him to use a smaller (and more explosive) lineup with Luke Maye playing at the 5. I also don’t like the matchup Coby White faces tonight against the Blue Devils’ Tre Jones who is an absolute menace on defense. White has tended to disappear this season with games — and that stalls the Tar Heels offense: White scored 12 points in a loss to Michigan where his team put up 67 points; he scored 4 points in a loss to Louisville where UNC scored 62 points; he scored 8 points in a loss to Kentucky where UNC scored 72 points. The Tar Heels usually score 87.5 PPG but those three results represent three of their four lowest point outputs this season (with their most recent loss to Virginia who plays at a crawl being the fourth sample). Additionally, North Carolina may be due for a visit from the Regression Gods after they shot a season-high 62.3% in their win over the Demon Deacons. They made 16 of 25 (64%) of their 3-pointers in that win — but they have then played 6 straight Unders after making at least 50% of their 3-pointers in their last game. The Tar Heels 3-point shooting by a Duke team that is 14th in the nation with an opponent’s 3-point shooting percentage of 29.7% that lowers to a 27.3% mark when at home. Speaking of regression, the Blue Devils have played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Finally, North Carolina has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total with the number set in the 160s while Duke has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the number in the 160 to 169.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Team trends can be very helpful in identifying how teams typically respond to situations like this — and this particularly true in college basketball when dealing with established coaches like Williams and Mike Krzyzewski who deploy consistent styles of play from year-to-year. The Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams with the Under also 3-0-1 in the last 4 encounters at Cameron Indoor. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (819) and the Duke Blue Devils (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-19 |
Predators v. Stars UNDER 5.5 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-125 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (63) and the Dallas Stars (64). THE SITUATION: Nashville (34-22-4) has lost four of their last five contests after their 5-1 loss in Vegas on Saturday. Dallas (29-24-5) has lost two straight as well as four of their last five contests after their 3-0 loss at Carolina on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Predators have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. Nashville has also seen the Under go 17-5-2 in their last 24 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. The Preds stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Nashville has also played 15 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total after allowing at least five goals in their last contest. Pekka Rinne will be between the pipes for the first time since February 14th after getting the night off against the Golden Knights. Rinne has been tough when playing with extended rest as he owns a 2.49 Goals-Against-Average with a nice .921 save percentage when playing with at least three days between starts. He will need to be on his game with the Predators’ offense slumping as of late. Nashville is scoring only 2.4 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against Central Division opponents. Dallas has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals. The Stars return home for the first time since February 4th — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Under is 6-1-1 in Dallas’ last 8 games on their home ice. They turn to Anton Khudobin between the pipes tonight who has a 2.22 GAA along with a .925 save percentage in eight starts/nine games at home this season. He has not played since February 16th as well — and he owns a strong 1.80 GAA along with a .940 save percentage in thirteen starts/fourteen games when playing with at least three days of rest. Dallas has been shutout in two straight games — and they earned a shutout win in their previous game which means one team has been held scoreless in three straight matches. The Stars are scoring only 1.4 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests.
FINAL TAKE: Nashville won the last meeting between these two teams back on February 7th where they won in Nash-vegas by a 3-2 score. These two teams have seen 4 of their last 5 meetings finish Under the Total. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (63) and the Dallas Stars (64). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-19 |
Ball State v. Miami-OH UNDER 142.5 |
|
66-69 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (617) and the Miami (OH) Redhawks (618). THE SITUATION: Ball State (14-11) has won three straight games after their 57-56 win over Akron last Saturday as a 3-point favorite. Miami (OH) (13-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 84-79 loss at Western Michigan on Saturday as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals held the Zips to just a 30.2% field goal percentage in their win on Saturday which was the best defensive effort in their last twelve games. Ball State plays tough half-court defense — their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.5% is the 35th best mark in the nation. The Cardinals have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Ball State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow Mid-American Conference opponents. The Cardinals have held their last five opponents to a low 39% field goal percentage. But they are making only 41.2% of their shots during these last five contests after shooting just 34.4% on Saturday. Now Ball State goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Miami (OH) has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Redhawks have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against Mid-American Conference foes. Miami made 37.3% of their shots on Saturday which was actually their best shooting mark in their last three games. The Redhawks are making only 39.9% of their shots over their last five games. Miami also allowed the Broncos to make 46.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten contests. Over their last five games, the Redhawks have held their last five opponents to only a 40.6% field goal percentage. Now Miami returns home where they are 9-3 this season while holding their guests to just 63.4 PPG on low 40.8% shooting from the field. The Redhawks have played 18 of their last 24 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range — and they have also played 6 straight home games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Additionally, Miami has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Ball State will have revenge on their mind after losing to Miami (OH) back on January 22nd. The Cardinals have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (617) and the Miami (OH) Redhawks (618). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-16-19 |
SE Missouri State v. Eastern Illinois OVER 141 |
|
88-79 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 4:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (775) and the Eastern Illinois Panthers (776). THE SITUATION: Southeast Missouri State (8-18) has lost four of their last five games with their 81-72 loss at UT-Martin on Thursday as a 5.5-point underdog. Eastern Illinois (14-12) snapped their three-game losing streak on Thursday with their 79-65 win at SIU-Edwardsville as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: SE Missouri State has failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Redhawks have also now played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against fellow Ohio Valley opponents. Defense has been a problem for this team after they allowed UT-Martin to make 61.2% of their shots on Thursday. SE Missouri State has allowed their last five opponents make 50.1% of their shots. Now they stay on the road where they are allowing 76.6 PPG on 46.1% shooting this season. The Redhawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. SE Missouri State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Eastern Illinois has played a decisive 44 of their last 59 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Panthers have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Now after playing their last three games on the road, Eastern Illinois returns home where they are scoring 76.6 PPG while allowing 76.1 PPG. The Panthers have played 38 of their last 53 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total after playing their last three games on the road. Eastern Illinois has also played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers are looking to avenge a 64-59 loss to SE Missouri State back on January 26th. Eastern Illinois has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. And in their last 4 opportunities to host the Redhawks, the game finished Over the Total all 4 times. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (775) and the Eastern Illinois Panthers (776). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-19 |
Avalanche v. Jets OVER 6.5 |
|
4-1 |
Loss |
-124 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (61) and the Winnipeg Jets (62). THE SITUATION: Colorado (22-23-10) has lost eight straight games after their 5-2 loss at home to Toronto on Tuesday. Winnipeg (36-18-20 has won two straight games with their 4-3 win over the New York Rangers on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Avalanche have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by at least three goals. They also have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. The Colorado blue line has leaked like a sieve as of late — they have allowed least four goals in seven of their last eight games which has translated into 4.38 Goals-Per-Game allowed during that span. Goalie Sergei Varlamov has struggled this month with an ugly 4.10 Goals-Against-Average along with a save percentage of just .882. Varlamov has not been very effective on the road all season where he has a 3.04 GAA along with a .902 save percentage. The Avalanche allow 3.5 Goals-Per-Game on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road while also played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog. But this team also scores a healthy 3.4 Goals-Per-Game when away from home. And they have played 4 straight games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +110 to +150 price range. Winnipeg has seen the Over go 3-1-2 in their last 6 games after a victory. They stay at home where they are scoring a robust 3.9 Goals-Per-Game. But the dog days of February have impacted their play on defense as they have allowed 3.4 Goals-Per-Game over their last five contests. Goalie Connor Hellebuyck has been average this season with a 2.87 GAA along with a .912 save percentage. The Over is 33-16-2 in the Jets’ last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Winnipeg has also seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games when priced in the -151 to -200 price range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Winnipeg. While I am not usually enthralled with taking Overs when the number is at 6.5 (hence, I have passed on more NHL Totals plays in the regular season than in past years), I follow the evidence — and that warrants an Over investment in this situation. 10* NHL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (61) and the Winnipeg Jets (62). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-19 |
Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State OVER 145 |
Top |
73-85 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (667) and the North Dakota State Bison (667). THE SITUATION: Oral Roberts (10-17) has won two straight games with their 86-72 upset win at South Dakota as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. North Dakota State (13-12) has won four straight games with their 81-71 win over Denver on Saturday as an 8.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Eagles have played 38 of their last 53 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played a decisive 22 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Oral Roberts has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Additionally, the Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 31 of their last 40 games Over the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game which includes thirteen of those last fifteen situations going Over the Total. This Oral Roberts team may have found their shooting stroke as they made 56.1% of their shots against South Dakota after making 51.1% of their shots against Denver in their previous game. The Golden Eagles have also 14 of 15 and 17 of 20 from the free throw line in their last two contests — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after shooting at least 78% from the charity stripe in at least two straight games. Now Oral Roberts stay on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Golden Eagles have also played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points. North Dakota State has played 24 of their last 32 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, the Bison has played 37 of their last 54 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and this includes them playing eight of these last nine situations going Over the Total. And while North Dakota State has covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight contests. The Bison stay at home where they are scoring 79.6 PPG while making 49.3% of their shots. North Dakota State has played 22 of their last 29 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, the Bison have played 14 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Oral Roberts is looking to avenge a 67-57 loss to North Dakota State loss to the Bison back on January 26th — and they have played 25 of their last 38 games when playing with revenge. In the last 7 meetings between these two teams in Fargo, the game finished Over the Total 5 times. 25* CBB Summit League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (667) and the North Dakota State Bison (667). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-19 |
Minnesota v. Nebraska UNDER 137.5 |
Top |
61-62 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (829) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (830). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (16-8) has lost three straight games with their 79-55 loss at Michigan State last Saturday as a 13.5-point underdog. Nebraska (13-11) has lost seven in a row with their 81-62 loss at Purdue as a 13-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Gophers should play better on defense after allowing the Spartans to make 51.7% of their shots from the field. That was the second-worst opponent’s field goal percentage that they have allowed in their last seven games. Minnesota has been consistently inconsistent this season — so a good effort looks likely for this veteran team that plays tough and physical when at their best. The Golden Gophers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. And while Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Golden Gophers stay on the road where they are 4-6 this season. They struggle to score points when away from home as they average just 63.4 PPG on the road while making just 38.9% of their shots. The Under is 9-1-1 in Minnesota’s last 11 games on the road — and the Under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Nebraska has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Furthermore, the Cornhuskers have played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Nebraska should play much better on defense tonight after allowing the Boilermakers to make 50.9% of their shots. That was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 games. Tim Miles’ team usually plays strong on defense as they rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also ranking 14th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.3%. Miles will want his team to work harder on the boards after being out-rebounded by a 39 to 24 margin. The Cornhuskers have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after being out-rebounded by at least 15 boards. The problem for this team during their losing streak has been their inability to hit a side of a barn on offense. They are making just 32% of their shots over their last five games which translated into just 56.4 PPG. While the Regression Gods may decide to let all their bank shots from behind the arc rattle into the basket — I do not think that happens tonight with Isaac Copeland, Jr. out with a knee injury. The forward is the team’s second-leading scorer with a 14.0 PPG average. Nebraska returns home where they are 9-4 this season but making only 42.7% of their shots. The Cornhuskers' recipe for success at home is on defense where they hold their opponents to only 56.8 PPG while holding their opponents to just a 35.7% field goal percentage. Nebraska has played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, the Cornhuskers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: This will be a rematch of the meeting between these two teams back on December 5th where the Golden Gophers won in Minnesota by an 85-78 score. Nebraska has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 85 points. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (829) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (830). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-19 |
Heat v. Mavs UNDER 208 |
|
112-101 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Toal in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Dallas Mavericks (514). THE SITUATION: Miami (25-30) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 103-87 loss at Denver on Monday as a 9.5-point underdog. Dallas (26-30) has lost two of their last three games with their 120-104 loss at Houston as an 11-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They also have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing at least four of their last five games. This is Miami’s fifth game in a row on the road — and it is their fourth game over the last seven days. The Heat have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total when playing their fourth game in seven days — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing at least three previous games on the road. The scoring output for this team has declined a bit as of late as they are averaging 101.4 PPG over their last five games which is -3.5 PPG lower than their 104.9 PPG season average. Miami stays on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Heat have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Dallas has played 12 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. This team is playing lower scoring games since their blockbuster Kristaps Porzingis trade. Dallas dealt away Dennis Smith, Jr. along with Wesley Matthews and DeAndre Jordan while getting back Tim Hardaway, Jr., Trey Burke and Porzingis who is out the season with his torn ACL. The Mavericks are scoring only 104.6 PPG on 43.4% shooting over their last five games which are both below their 108.8 PPG scoring average on 44.9% shooting for the season. But Dallas is giving up only 106.8 PPG over these last five games which is almost 2 points lower than their 108.7 PPG season average. The Mavericks return home where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. Dallas has also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference opponents — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 encounters Under the Total — and this includes them playing four straight Unders when the game is played in Dallas. Expect another lower scoring game. 20* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Toal in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Dallas Mavericks (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-12-19 |
Michigan State v. Wisconsin UNDER 134.5 |
|
67-59 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (621) and the Wisconsin Badgers (622). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (19-5) snapped their three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 79-55 win over Minnesota as a 13.5-point favorite. Wisconsin (17-7) had their six-game winning streak end on Saturday with their 61-52 loss at Michigan as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Michigan State has seen the Under go 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-1 in the Spartans’ last 9 games after a win by at least 20 points. Now Michigan State goes on the road where they hold their home hosts to just a 38.5% field goal percentage. The Spartans have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, Michigan State has played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The season-ending ankle injury to guard Joshua Langford has hurt the offense more than it has hurt the Sparty defense because Langford’s primary replacement, Matt McQuaid might be a better defender. But while other players were stepping up to support their superstar Cassius Winston since that injury to Langford, these role players were ineffective during their three-game losing streak — and this is a team that can see their offense go cold in critical stretches of the game. Wisconsin allowed Michigan to make 44.6% of their shots on Saturday which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last eleven games. The Badgers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Wisconsin has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss to a Big Ten rival. The Badgers play great positional defense — and they tend to get rewarded for their flops when playing at home in Madison’s Kohl Center. Wisconsin has not allowed more than 64 points in eight straight games — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in at least three straight games. The Badgers have held their last five opponents to only 54.0 PPG on low 36.4% shooting. But this team is scoring just 60.2 PPG in those last five games while shooting only 41.6% from the field in these games. Wisconsin returns home where they have seen the Under go 7-3-1 in their last 11 games. The Badgers have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: This is a battle of two of the best defensive teams in the nation. Michigan State ranks 9th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also ranking 4th in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage. Wisconsin ranks 7th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also ranking 11th in opponent’s effective field goal percentage. Expect a lower-scoring game. 20* CBB Michigan State-Wisconsin ESPN2 O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (621) and the Wisconsin Badgers (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-19 |
Duke v. Virginia UNDER 137.5 |
|
81-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Duke Blue Devils (713) and the Virginia Cavaliers (714). Duke (20-2) has won six straight games after their 80-55 win over Boston College on Tuesday as a 24-point favorite. Virginia (20-1) has won four straight contests with their 56-46 win over Miami (FL) last Saturday as a 17.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers’ junior point guard, Ty Jerome, is listed as questionable for this game with a sore back. It looks like he will try to play tonight after having had a full week off since not playing in that game against the Hurricanes — but his effectiveness remains a question. Duke will have their freshman point guard Tre Jones in this game after he missed the first encounter between these two teams last month. Jones is an elite defensive player — so a not at full strength Jerome will be a big problem for the Virginia offense with Jones harassing him. It will be even worse when Jones is defending the Cavaliers’ 5’9 freshman point guard Kihei Clark who committed six turnovers running the offense against Miami. As it is, Virginia has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Cavaliers have managed only 28 and 27 points in the first-half of their last two games — and they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after failing to reach at least 30 points in the first-half in two straight contests. Virginia does play outstanding defense — they rank second in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency while leading the country by holding their opponents to just 52.9 PPG. On their home court, the Cavaliers limit their guests to only 49.0 PPG on ice-cold 33.3% shooting. Virginia has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. Additionally, the Cavaliers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Duke has seen the Under go 23-8-2 in their last 33 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Blue Devils have also played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Duke has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 55 points. This is Mike Krzyzewski’s best defensive team in years — they rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency. The 35.7% shooting mark that the Eagles produced on Tuesday was actually the best percentage that a Duke opponent has produced in their last three contests. The Blue Devils have held their last five opponents to just 58.8 PPG. Duke goes back on the road where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games — and the Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Under is also 18-8-1 in the Blue Devils’ last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Duke won the first meeting between these two teams without their defensive dynamo in Jones by a 72-70 score back on January 19th. Virginia has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing with revenge on their minds. 20* CBB Duke-Virginia ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Duke Blue Devils (713) and the Virginia Cavaliers (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-19 |
Ohio v. Miami-OH UNDER 132.5 |
Top |
59-79 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (631) and the Miami (OH) Redhawks (632). THE SITUATION: Ohio (11-10) has lost two straight games after their 65-53 loss to Akron last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Miami (OH) (12-11) has lost two of their last three games with their 70-67 loss at Kent State as a 4-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bobcats have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 10 points. And while Ohio has only covered the point spread twice in their last twelve games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. This team is last in the Mid-American Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and now they go on the road where they are scoring only 59.8 PPG with a low 38.4% field goal percentage. The Bobcats have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Ohio has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against fellow MAC opponents. Miami (OH) has seen the Under go 28-11-1 in their last 40 games against conference opponents. The Redhawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 21-8-1 in their last 30 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Miami has played 7 straight games at home Under the Total after a loss. This is a team that sacrifices offensive rebounding to get back on defense — they are last in the MAC by pulling down only 24.6% of their missed shots. Over their last five games, the Redhawks are allowing only 60.4 PPG while holding their opponents to just a 39.6% field goal percentage. But during that span, Miami is scoring only 65.4 PPG themselves on 41.5% shooting (and few second-chance opportunities). Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Redhawks return home where they hold their opponents to just 63.8 PPG on 41.3% shooting from the field. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 meetings at Miami. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (631) and the Miami (OH) Redhawks (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-19 |
Burnley v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
Our 25* EPL NBC-TV Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the match between Burnley (200065) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200066). Burnley (6-6-13) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw to Southampton last Saturday. Brighton and Hove Albion (7-6-12) comes off a 0-0 draw at home to Watford last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Burnley is playing better soccer right now as they are unbeaten in their last eight matches in all competitions. The Clarets find themselves 2 points above the relegation zone — so scrapping out at least a point this afternoon would be huge for them. Burnley’s success as of late has come from better goal production — they have found the back of the net 10 times in their last six matches. Stopping the opposition has been the biggest problem for this team as they have surrendered 46 goals in English Premier League play which is the second most of all twenty teams. The Clarets allow their opponents to attempt 18 shots per game — and that number rises to 20.2 shots allowed per game when playing on the road. Both those numbers are the worst in the EPL. Burnley has scored 11 times on the road while conceding 24 goals — and the analytics indicate that these should be higher scoring games with their Expected Goals scored on the road being at 12.14 and the Expected Goals they should have allowed being at 26.17. Don’t be surprised if Chris Wood scores a goal in this match as he registered a goal five times in his last eight matches with Brighton. The Seagulls have lost three of their last five matches in EPL play but they do enter this match with confidence after they defeated West Brom on Wednesday in FA Cup action by a 3-1 score. Manager Chris Hughton rested most of his usual starters in that match so his group should be rested and ready for this showdown. Brighton has only conceded 12 goals when playing at home this season — but the metrics suggest that has been a rather fortunate occurrence since their Expected Goals allowed rests over 25% higher at 16.23. The Seagulls allow 15.4 shots per game which is the second most in the EPL. Brighton is a tough team to beat when playing at home against one of the non-Power Six teams in the league. The Seagulls are 4-3-0 in those seven matches while scoring 9 times for a 2.25 Goals-Per-Game average.
FINAL TAKE: These are the bottom two teams in the league in shots attempted by their opponents. With this being a winnable match for both teams, I expect both sides to be very aggressive in their search for 3 points with a victory. I think both teams score in this contest — with the issue being whether we can see a third goal to secure our winning ticket (versus a push at 2.0). 25* EPL NBC-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Burnley (200065) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200066). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-08-19 |
Wolves v. Pelicans OVER 230.5 |
|
117-122 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 9:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (513) and the New Orleans Pelicans (514). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (25-29) has lost three straight games as well as five of their six contests with their 122-112 loss at Orlando as a 4-point underdog last night. New Orleans (24-31) looks to build off a 125-120 win at Chicago on Wednesday as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, Minnesota has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. And while the T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in five straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in at least four straight games. Minnesota has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing three of their last four games. Now the Timberwolves stay on the road where they allow 114.4 PPG while seeing their home hosts make 47.7% of their shots. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road. New Orleans has played a decisive 36 of their last 60 games Over the Total after allowing at least 115 points in their last game. The Pelicans have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. The team traded away big man Nikola Mirotic — so this team will likely play even more small ball now which means they will continue to push the pace. New Orleans has also made the questionable decision to put a healthy Anthony Davis back on the court despite his proclamation that he will not choose to resign with the team when his contract expires. In the short run, while the Pelicans pray he does not get himself seriously injured and ruin his trade value, he offers the team a massive offensive weapon. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 64 of their last 89 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Pelicans return home to the Big Easy where they score 117.2 PPG on 48.1% shooting while allowing their visitors to score 113.0 PPG on 46.6% shooting.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans look to avenge a 110-106 loss at Minnesota back on January 12th — and they have played 27 of their last 38 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 10* NBA Minnesota-New Orleans ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (513) and the New Orleans Pelicans (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-07-19 |
Spurs v. Blazers OVER 225.5 |
Top |
118-127 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (583) and the Portland Trail Blazers (584). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (32-24) saw their five-game winning streak snapped last night with their ugly 141-102 loss at Golden State as a 15.5-point underdog. Portland (32-21) had their three-game winning streak end on Tuesday with their 118-108 upset loss to Miami as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spurs rested LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan in that game which contributed to them making only 43.2% of their shots against the Warriors. Both players will be back on the court tonight in this more winnable game than against the defending NBA champions. San Antonio has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing without rest. The Spurs have also seen the Over go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Toal after a double-digit setback. Furthermore, the Over is 10-0-1 in San Antonio’s last 11 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last contest. The Spurs will likely be without starting point guard Derrick White who is dealing with a right foot injury. San Antonio will miss his versatile play on defense. The Spurs have allowed three of their last five opponents to make at least 55.6% of their shots after the Warriors nailed 57.9% of their field goal attempts. Overall, San Antonio has allowed their last five opponents to make 52.9% of their shots from the field. The Spurs stay on the road where they are scoring 110.9 PPG but surrendering 115.1 PPG. Home hosts are making 48.3% of their shots against San Antonio. The Over is 24-9-2 in their last 35 road games — and the Spurs have seen the Over go 21-5-1 in their 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Portland has played 21 of their last 29 games over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Trail Blazers made only 45.2% of their shots against the Heat which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. Portland stays at home where they are making 47.6% of their shots which translates into 115.9 PPG. Over tier last five games, the Blazers are still making 48% of their shots — but they are also allowing these opponents to shoot 47.1% from the field which is a bit worse than their 45.7% opponent’s field goal percentage for the year. The Over is 6-0-1 in Portland’s last 7 games on their home court — and the Over is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, while the Blazers have scored at least 105 points in nineteen straight games, they have then played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total after scoring at least 105 points in at least five straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Portland will be playing with revenge on their minds after suffering a 131-118 loss to the Spurs back on December 2nd where they made 52.3% of their shots while allowing San Antonio to shoot 60.2% from the field. These two teams have played 22 of their last 30 meetings Over the Total — and this includes them playing twelve of their last sixteen games Over the Total when playing in Portland. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Thursday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (583) and the Portland Trail Blazers (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-19 |
California v. Oregon UNDER 139.5 |
Top |
62-73 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (831) and the Oregon Ducks (832). THE SITUATION: California (5-16) has lost ten straight games after their 84-81 loss at home to Stanford last Sunday as a 4-point underdog. Oregon (13-9) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 73-51 upset loss at Colorado as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Bears have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a loss to a fellow Pac-12 rival. Cal has also played 10 straight road games Under the Total after losing at least two games in a row. Cal lost seven contributors from last year’s 8-24 team — and they have continued to struggle this season as they are last in the Pac-12 in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and with their effective field goal percentage of 45.5%. They have allowed their last three opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Golden Bears go back on the road where they are 0-9 this season while making just 42.9% of their shots which is resulting in only 67.6 PPG. Cal has played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games at home. Furthermore, the Golden Bears have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 12.5 to 18 points. Oregon has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. The Ducks have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Oregon returns home where they are 9-4 this season while holding their opponents to just 64.8 PPG on a low 42.0% field goal percentage. The Ducks have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Oregon has also played 24 of their last 33 home games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a Pac-12 rival. The Ducks have been hit hard with injuries this season with the biggest being to Bol Bol who is out the year with a left foot injury. While Dana Altman’s team is back to full strength — save for Bol — the offensive chemistry of this team has been disrupted. Oregon ranks 10th in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But the Ducks have been solid on defense as they rank 5th in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as the favorite laying 12.5 to 18 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams play at the two slowest paces in the Pac-12 — Cal’s 18.2 seconds per possession in conference action is only quicker than Oregon’s 19.0 seconds per possession. The Ducks do force pressure to create scoring opportunities — they are second in the Pac-12 by forcing turnovers in 24.4% of their conference opponents possessions. But protecting the basketball may be what this Bears team does best as they are second in the conference by only turning the ball over in 15.9% of their possessions in conference play. Expect a slog. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (831) and the Oregon Ducks (832). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-19 |
LSU v. Mississippi State OVER 154 |
|
92-88 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (823) and the Mississippi State Bulldogs (824). THE SITUATION: LSU (17-4) looks to bounce-back from their 90-89 upset loss to Arkansas as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. Mississippi State (16-5) has won two of their last three games with their 81-75 upset victory at Ole Miss on Saturday as a 2-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers have played 23 of the last 34 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Over the Total after a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. And while LSU has failed to cover the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then played 17 of their last 19 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 6-3 this season while averaging 78.8 PPG but allowing 74.9 PPG. The Tigers have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, LSU has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Mississippi State has played 20 of their last 27 home games Over the Total after an upset win over an SEC rival. The Bulldogs have also played 43 of their last 67 games Over the Total on their home court after winning two of their last three games. The Bulldogs return home where they are 11-1 this season while scoring 83.9 PPG on 50.4% shooting from the field. Mississippi State has played 4 straight home games Over the Total. The Bulldogs have also played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: LSU and Mississippi State are two of the best offensive teams in the nation: they rank 17th and 20th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. These two teams have played 11 of their last 13 meetings Over the Total — and this includes them playing six of their last seven games Over the Total when playing at Mississippi State. 10* CBB LSU-Mississippi State ESPN2 O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (823) and the Mississippi State Bulldogs (824). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-19 |
Hornets v. Mavs UNDER 216 |
Top |
93-99 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (565) and the Dallas Mavericks (566). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (26-26) has won three of their last four games with their 125-118 win over Chicago on Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite. Dallas (24-28) has won four of their last six games with their 111-98 upset win at Cleveland as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. This team is playing very good defense right now as they have held their last five opponents to just a 41% field goal percentage which has resulted in only 101.1 PPG which is more than 7 points below their 108.7 PPG defensive scoring average. Dallas made a blockbuster trade this week by trading Dennis Smith, Jr. along with Wesley Matthews and DeAndre Jordan to the Knicks for Kristaps Porzingis along with Tim Hardaway and Trey Burke. Losing Jordan along with Matthews will impact the Mavericks’ defensive presence — but integrating Hardaway and Burke into their offensive rotation will take some time. Of course, it has been announced that Porzingis will not take the court this season as he looks to fully recover from his ACL injury from last year. Dallas returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference — and they have played 36 of their last 59 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Charlotte has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The Hornets made 52.4% of their shots in their win over the Bulls on Saturday which was the best offensive effort in their last five games. But this remains a team that is scoring 107.0 PPG over their last five games which is more than 4 points below their 111.6 PPG season average. Charlotte is also making only 43.8% of their shots when playing on the road. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Hornets’ last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte will be looking to avenge an embarrassing 122-84 loss at home to Dallas back on January 2nd — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. While the Mavericks are probably not as strong as a defensive team after their trade with the Knicks, I do expect them to struggle on offense as they incorporate Hardaway and Burke into the mix. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (565) and the Dallas Mavericks (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-19 |
Drake v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 130 |
Top |
64-86 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (615) and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (616). THE SITUATION: Drake (17-6) has won five of their last six games with their 68-62 upset victory at Indiana State on Saturday as a 1-point underdog. Loyola-Chicago (14-9) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 65-57 loss to Illinois State as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Drake has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bulldogs stay on the road where they are holding their hosts to just a 41.7% field goal percentage. Drake has the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Missouri Valley Conference — and they have played 6 of their last 7 conference games Under the Total. But the Bulldogs make only 44.7% of their shots away from home as compared to their 47.5% field goal mark for the season. Drake has played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. This team has seen their scoring output derailed with the season-ending ACL injury to Nick Norton. The senior guard was the second-leading scorer on the team with a 14.0 PPG scoring average — and by taking 22.2% of the team’s shots for the season, he was taking the second most percentage of shots on the team. Moving forward, the Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Loyola-Chicago has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. The Ramblers have played two straight games where neither team scored more than 65 points. Not only has Loyola-Chicago played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points but they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing two straight games where neither team scored at least 65 points. The Ramblers return home where they are 10-3 this season while holding their visitors to just 57.9 PPG on low 40.7% shooting from the field. Loyola-Chicago has played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Ramblers have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Drake will be looking to avenge an 85-74 loss to Loyola-Chicago back on January 5th. The Bulldogs have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when on the road playing with revenge from a same-season loss. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams on the Ramblers’ home court. 25* CBB Tuesday CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (615) and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-19 |
Patriots v. Rams OVER 56 |
Top |
13-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
169 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: New England (13-5) has reached the Super Bowl for the third straight year along with fourth time in the last five seasons with their 37-31 win in overtime at Kansas City as a 3-point underdog. Los Angeles (15-3) earned the right to play them with their 26-23 upset win in overtime in New Orleans as a 3-point underdog. Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will host Super Bowl LIII.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: In theory, these are two teams that like to run the ball first to establish their passing game. Both these teams have two of the best offensive lines in the NFL. New England lacks a dynamic deep threat after they lost the services of wide receiver Josh Gordon. Los Angeles has evolved into a power run team with the addition of C.J. Anderson to complement running back Todd Gurley. Yet even if this is a low scoring game early on, I expect the final score to reach the Over. In part, because this game shapes up to be very competitive, the closeness of the game should push the scoring up. And as things get more desperate as the game gets into the 4th quarter, both teams’ passing games should take over. We certainly got burned in the AFC Championship Game with New England going into the 4th quarter with a 17-7 score before 38 combined points were scored to ruin our Under play. The Patriots scored 31 points in regulation away from the Meadowlands in less cold weather while reaching 524 total yards of offense after their overtime touchdown drive. Offensive proficiency like that from Tom Brady typically is a sign that New England should be able to keep their offense clicking on all cylinders. The Patriots have played 53 of their last 79 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also played 34 of their last 52 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. New England has also played 40 of their last 61 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Patriots also lit up the good Chargers defense for 41 points in their 13-point win in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 35 points in two straight contests. The extra week of preparation should help Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels scheme for the Rams defense as they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with two weeks of preparation. Additionally, the Patriots have played 7 of their last 8 games in the playoffs Over the Total. This Super Bowl will feature two defenses that are middle of the pack — the metrics from Football Outsiders ranks New England 16th in the league in defensive DVOA while the Rams rank 19th in that metric. The Patriots allowed 24.8 PPG when playing away from home this season while Los Angeles gives up 24.0 PPG overall for the year. The Rams should dial up a great offensive game plan to take advantage of the Patriots defense that could not stop the Chiefs in the 4th quarter. Los Angeles has played 18 of their last 29 games Over the Total when playing with two weeks of rest and preparation. The Rams got sensational play from Jared Goff in the second-half of their victory over the Saints. Goff completed 25 of 40 passes for 297 yards after leading his team to their game-winning field goal in overtime. Los Angeles has then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. And while the Rams have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is in the high-50s for this Super Bowl — but that is warranted given the ideal conditions in the dome stadium and the high level of proficiency from both these offenses. Expect a high-scoring game. 25* NFL Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. For those interested in Super Bowl Props, I will have my Betting Card for a Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet (offering the best value relative to the odds), and my top Long Shot Bet by Saturday (2/2) with it being attached as a Free Bonus to a Saturday (and Sunday) College Basketball play).
|
02-01-19 |
Maryland v. Wisconsin UNDER 131 |
Top |
61-69 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (869) and the Wisconsin Badgers (870). THE SITUATION: Maryland (17-5) snapped a two-game losing streak on Tuesday with a 70-52 win over Northwestern as a 7.5-point favorite. Wisconsin (15-6) has won four straight games after their 62-51 upset win at Nebraska as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Terrapins played a great game on defense against the Wildcats as they held them to just a 31% field goal percentage. Maryland has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. And while that game finished below the 132.5 point total, the Terrapins have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished below the number. Maryland’s defense has traveled this season — they are holding their home hosts to just 62.2 PPG on low 39.6% shooting. The Terrapins have held their last five opponents to just a 39.4% field goal percentage as head coach Mark Turgeon continues to see improvement from his team on that end of the court. But while Maryland is loaded with talent, their offense can stall out. Turgeon decided early on to move his best player, Anthony Cowan, off the ball to put him in better positions to score while lowering his work rate as he did with Melo Trimble’s final year with the program. But while it was Cowan who glided into the point guard position then, freshman Eric Ayala is struggling with this transition this season. The Terrapins starting point guard has a higher turnover rate than assist rate and he is one of the reasons that this team ranks 13th in the Big Ten by turning the ball over in 21.0% of their possessions. Maryland scored 78.7 PPG when playing at home — but that number drops to just 68.6 PPG when they are playing on the road. Over their last five games, the Terrapins are making just 42.8% of their shots. The Terrapins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Big Ten opponents — and they have played 3 of their last 4 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Wisconsin has played 26 of their last 31 games Under the Total after an upset victory over a Big Ten rival. The Badgers play outstanding defense — they rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also ranking 12th in the country with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.8%. Wisconsin has held their last five opponents to just 33.6% shooting from the field — and Big Ten opponents are making only 37.8% of their shots against them. Furthermore, the Badgers are holding their visitors to just 61.7 PPG on low 40.4% shooting — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. One of the reasons why the Badgers are so tough to score on is that their games are almost entirely consisting of slogs in the half-court. Wisconsin is 9th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 14.9% of their possessions. But the Badgers’ half-court offense has slowed down as opponents have made the decision to key on D’Mitrik Trice. While the 6’0 guard is averaging 13.9 PPG, he is scoring 12.2 PPG over his last five games which includes only 8 points against the Cornhuskers and only 6 points against Michigan. Senior Ethan Happ gets most of the headlines for this team — but he is not a good natural shooter given his 47% free throw percentage along with zero made 3-pointers this season. Wisconsin is making just 43.8% of their shots over their last five games. Head coach Greg Gard does have an assortment of players who can make 3-pointers — they rank 3rd in the Big Ten by making 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. But the Terrapins defend the perimeter well — they rank 4th in the Big Ten with an opponent’s 3-point mark of just 31.1% and home teams are making only 29.1% of their 3-pointers against them when they are playing on the road. The Under is a decisive 38-18-4 in Wisconsin’s last 60 games against Big Ten opponents — and the Badgers have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. With two head coaches that preach defense facing offenses that have significant holes, expect a lower scoring game once again between these two teams. 25* CBB Friday FS1 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (869) and the Wisconsin Badgers (870). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-31-19 |
Cal-Irvine v. UC-Santa Barbara UNDER 133 |
Top |
66-62 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UC-Irvine Anteaters (647) and the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (648). THE SITUATION: UC-Irvine (17-5) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 82-64 win over UC-Riverside last Saturday as a 13-point favorite. UC-Santa Barbara (15-4) has won seven of their last eight games with their 82-71 win at Long Beach State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: UC-Irvine has played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Anteaters made 52.5% of their shots on Saturday which was the best offensive effort in their last six games. But now UC-Irvine goes back on the road where they are making just 41.6% of their shots. The Anteaters’ defense should travel — they lead in the Big West Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also leading the conference with an opponent’s effective goal percentage of 46.1%. UC-Irvine holds their home hosts to just a 38.3% field goal percentage. The Anteaters have played 15 of their last 19 road games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as the favorite. Additionally, UC-Irvine has played 12 of their last 14 games on the road Under the Total against fellow Big West opponents. UC-Santa Barbara has played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and this includes them playing eight of their last nine home games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now the Gauchos return home where they are a perfect 9-0 while holding their visitors to just 56.3 PPG on low 36.4% shooting. The Under is a decisive 34-15-2 in UC-Santa Barbara’s last 51 games on their home court — and they have also seen the Under go 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Gauchos can struggle to score points — they are 8th in the Big West in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Over their last five games, UC-Santa Barbara is making only 42.8% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams typically play lower scoring games. The Under is 19-7-2 in the last 28 meetings between these two teams — and this includes them playing four straight Unders when facing off in Santa Barbara. Expect another lower-scoring game between these two teams. 25* College Basketball Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UC-Irvine Anteaters (647) and the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-19 |
Nuggets v. Pelicans OVER 224.5 |
Top |
105-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the New Orleans Pelicans (562). THE SITUATION: Denver (34-15) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 95-92 win at Memphis as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. New Orleans (23-28) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their surprising 121-116 upset win at Houston as a big 13.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after an upset win by at least 10 points — and this includes them playing three of their four games Over the Total when that double-digit upset win was over a Southwest Divisional rival. New Orleans has also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing without a day of rest. This team is a M*A*S*H unit right now with Anthony Davis out (and perhaps never to wear a Pelicans’ jersey again given his declaration that he will not resign with the team when his contract expires and Nikola Mirotic, Julius Randle, Elfrid Payton, E’Twaun Moore all dealing with injuries. The latter three are listed as questionable for tonight as of this writing. This leaves the team with only Jrue Holiday as the only regular starter available for the Pelicans — but he starred alongside Jahil Okafor and a slew of bench players last night. This group buys-in to head coach Alvin Gentry’s aggressive defensive schemes and fast-tempo. The Pelicans made 51.1% of their shots against the Rockets last night — and their 48.9% field goal percentage in their last five games since Davis suffered his injury is higher than the 48.1% mark they have overall for the season. I am not sure how well New Orleans will play on defense tonight — but they should continue to score plenty of baskets back at home where they are averaging 118.4 PPG on 48.4% shooting. The Pelicans have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a dog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents. Where the Pelicans really miss Davis is with their interior defense. Through his injury on January 19th, opponents were taking 39.5% of their shots at the rim when Davis was not on the court — that would translate into the second-highest mark if extended to the entire season. The lack of credible rim protector without Davis requires the Pelicans to help on defense — and that opens things up for these opponents on the perimeter again. Opponents were making 46.7% of their corner 3s against New Orleans with Davis off the court before his injury. While Houston lacks a credible inside scoring threat (especially with Clint Capela injured), the Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic should have a field day against the Pelicans inside tonight. Denver has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after both a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Nuggets were sluggish for most of that game with the Grizzlies as they made only 43.5% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last eight games. Denver rallied from a 25-point third quarter deficit as well as a 17-point margin in the fourth quarter to pull out that win. They should shoot much better tonight — they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total in the month of January. The Nuggets have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans averages 103.2 possessions per game which is the 5th quickest pace in the NBA. Their injuries require them to play small-ball — and that should facilitate both teams flying up and down the court like the Pelicans’ game with the Rockets last night. Even in a losing effort, Houston scored 116 points while making just 39.6% of their shots. We took that Over last night — and I think we have another big advantage versus the number tonight. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (561) and the New Orleans Pelicans (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-19 |
Chelsea v. AFC Bournemouth OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200153) and Bournemouth (200154). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (14-5-4) looks to rebound from a 2-0 shutout loss on the road at Arsenal in their last English Premier League match back on January 19th. Bournemouth (9-3-11) returns to EPL play after the break going off a 2-0 win over West Ham on January 19th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Chelsea needed help with their attack so they made a big splash in the January transfer window by adding Gonzalo Higuain to be their striker. Frankly, I am not bullish on the veteran forward who seemed past his prime this summer as part of the vast Argentina disappointment at the World Cup. Higuain thrived when playing for manager Maurizio Sarri at Napoli — but that was back for the 2015-16 season. However, the best benefit of getting Higuain on the pitch is it frees up for their best player, Eden Hazard, to go back to his preferred space out wide rather than playing the traditional striker role. Higuain has already made his debut with the Blues last week in a 3-0 victory over Sheffield in FA Cup action which is encouraging regarding this team finding their offensive attack again. Chelsea has seen 29 combined goals scored in their eleven EPL matches on the road this season. They have scored 40 goals this season but 31 of these have come against the non-power six teams in the league. In those seventeen matches against the bottom-fourteen sides in the EPL, the Blues have seen 40 combined goals scored. In their last six road matches in the EPL against non-power six teams, Chelsea has seen at least three combined goals scored in five of those contests. The Blues will put plenty of pressure on the Cherries in this match. They are second in the league by averaging 15.7 shots per game — and they lead the EPL by averaging 15 shots per game when playing on the road in executing Sarri’s aggressive system. Bournemouth may not have their top striker in Callum Wilson who is dealing with hamstring and knee injuries after limping off the pitch in their win over West Ham — he was downgraded to doubtful yesterday for this match. But the Cherries have a capable second striker in Joshua King so his loss does not derail their offensive attack. Bournemouth has scored 21 times in their twelve matches at home this season — so they should find the back of the net at least once in this contest. However, the defense is the problem for this team that has allowed the fourth most goals in the EPL this year. The Cherries allow the third most shots (12.85) when playing at home this season — so this match with Chelsea will likely see them surrender plenty of shot attempts. Bournemouth typically gets exposed when playing one of the traditional top-six teams in the league (Man City, Man United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, and Chelsea). They have allowed 22 goals in their seven matches against the power-six teams which translate into over 3.0 goals-per-game surrendered. The Cherries have seen 10 combined goals scored in their three matches at home against power-six teams with the visitor scoring 8 times.
FINAL TAKE: With Chelsea being one of the most active teams in the league and Bournemouth vulnerable to these teams, expect a higher-scoring contest this afternoon. 25* EPL Television Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200153) and Bournemouth (200154). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-19 |
Pelicans v. Rockets OVER 233 |
Top |
121-116 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (547) and the Houston Rockets (548). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (22-28) has lost three straight games with their 126-114 loss to San Antonio on Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. Houston (29-20) has won three straight games with their 103-98 win over Orlando on Sunday as an 8.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. And while New Orleans has lost five of their last six games, New Orleans has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. This team is mired with injuries with Anthony Davis out with a hand injury and fellow big man Nikola Mirotic also out with a calf injury. With Julius Randle questionable with an ankle injury as well, this leaves head coach Alvin Gentry pretty thin with options on his frontline. Smaller lineups from Gentry will likely see the Pelicans push the pace even faster than the 103.19 possessions per game average they already average which is 6th fastest in the NBA. New Orleans goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total. The Pelicans have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. And in their last 5 games against fellow Western Conference opponents, the game finished Over the Total 4 times. Houston has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. The Rockets have won four of their last five games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five contests. The team did see Chris Paul III return to the court on Sunday with his minutes being limited until he gets himself back into shape. The Rockets stay at home where they are averaging 116.7 PPG. Houston has played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, while their win over the Magic fell well below the 221.5 point Total, they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the number. Houston held Orlando to just a 40.2% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last eighteen games. Yet the Rockets have still allowed their last five opponents to score 116.4 PPG. Houston has played 4 straight games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans will be looking to avenge a 108-104 loss at home to the Rockets back on December 29th — and they have played a decisive 40 of their last 64 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. With New Orleans’ injuries, it will be Small Ball City in this contest which should facilitate a blazing pace and a high scoring game. 25* NBA TNT Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (547) and the Houston Rockets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-19 |
Georgia v. Arkansas UNDER 153.5 |
Top |
60-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (603) and the Arkansas Razorbacks (604). THE SITUATION: Georgia (10-9) snapped their four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 98-88 upset win over Texas as a 4.5-point underdog. Arkansas (11-8) has lost five of their last six games with their 67-64 loss at Texas Tech as a 10-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs made a season-high 66.7% of their shots in their rout of the Longhorns. The Regression Gods are highly likely to make a visit to Fayetteville for this Georgia team that makes only 45.2% of their shots on the road. And in their six conference games this season, they are hitting just 41.4% of their shots. The Bulldogs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Georgia has also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bulldogs have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last contest. Furthermore, while Georgia has played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. The Bulldogs go back on the road where they are scoring just 69.1 PPG. They have played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Arkansas has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total. And while the Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Arkansas returns home where they are 8-4 while holding their opponents to just 70.7 PPG on low 40.7% shooting from the field. The Razorbacks have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is in the 150s for this contest given Arkansas’ fast “40 Minutes of Hell” pace. But the Razorbacks have still played six of their last eight games Under the Total — and they are hosting a Bulldogs team that is likely to see their hot shooting disappear in a hostile environment. 25* CBB SEC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (603) and the Arkansas Razorbacks (604). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-25-19 |
Pistons v. Mavs UNDER 208 |
|
101-106 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (577) and the Dallas Mavericks (578). Detroit (21-26) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 98-94 upset win in New Orleans on Wednesday as a 5-point underdog. Dallas (21-26) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 106-98 win against the Los Angeles Clippers.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pistons are playing their third game since Monday — and they have played 13 straight games Under the Total when playing their third game in five days. Detroit has also played 13 of their last 14 road games Under the Total after playing at least their two previous games on the road. The Pistons are playing lower scoring games as of late. They are scoring 100.8 PPG over their last five games while allowing 101.2 PPG over that span — as compared to their 106.0 PPG scoring average and the 108.6 PPG they are allowing for the season. Detroit stays on the road where they have played 7 straight games Under the Total. The Under is also 22-5-3 in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. Furthermore, the Pistons have played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Detroit is shooting just 42.6% from the field when playing away from home. Additionally, the Pistons have played 31 of their last 45 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Detroit has also played 6 straight games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents. Dallas has played 7 straight games Under the Total against Eastern Conference opponents. The Mavericks have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Dallas stays at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings in Dallas. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 20* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (577) and the Dallas Mavericks (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-19 |
Samford v. Wofford OVER 146.5 |
Top |
106-107 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Samford Bulldogs (673) and the Wofford Terriers (674). THE SITUATION: Samford (12-8) has lost four of their last five games with their 93-87 loss to Mercer as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Wofford (15-4) has won six games in a row with their 59-54 win over Furman as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Terriers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a victory. Wofford is one of the best mid-majors in the country after returning all five starters and some depth from last year’s team that finished 21-13 with a win over North Carolina. This year’s team lost to North Carolina on opening night of the season by 9 points but they later earned a win over South Carolina. This team uses four guards in their starting lineup that deploys an offense that is highly proficient in making 3s. The Terriers are 28th in the nation by making 38.2% of their 3-point shots — and that number rises to a 39.9% mark when they are playing at home. Wofford averages 88.3 PPG on their home court while making 51.4% of their shots. The Terriers have paled 37 of their last 51 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Wofford has also played 18 of their last 23 home games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have also played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when laying double-digits. The Terriers made only 38.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst offensive effort in their last ten games. Yet over their last five games, the Terriers have made 52.6% of their shots even after that subpar effort. Overall, Wofford ranks 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They should have a field day against this Bulldogs team that has allowed their last five opponents to make 47.5% of their shots. Samford is 8th in the Southern Conference by allowing their conference opponents to make 37.9% of their 3-point shots. The Bulldogs have played a decisive 50 of their last 69 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, Samford has played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss to a conference rival. The Bulldogs tend to play more Overs because they play at a quick pace. They average 16.3 seconds per possession which is the 67th fastest pace in the nation — and that tempo has risen in conference play to 15.9 seconds per possession. Samford has allowed their last five opponents to score at least 76 points — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing at least 75 points in four straight contests. The Bulldogs go back on the road where they have played 5 stage games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Samford has also played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings in Wofford’s gym Over the Total. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams with the Terriers scoring plenty of points in response to Samford’s preferred quick pace. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Samford Bulldogs (673) and the Wofford Terriers (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-19 |
Hornets v. Grizzlies UNDER 210 |
Top |
118-107 |
Loss |
-107 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (553) and Memphis Grizzlies (554). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (22-24) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 120-95 loss at Indiana as an 8-point underdog. Memphis (19-28) has lost six straight games as well as twelve of their last thirteen games with their ugly 105-85 upset loss at home to New Orleans on Monday as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a fellow Southwest Division rival. Memphis has also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points to a divisional rival. Furthermore, not only has this team played 31 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing three straight games but they have also played 7 straight games Under the Total after dropping four straight games. Look for the Grizzlies embarrassment lead to a better effort on the defensive end of the court. The Pelicans — without an injured Anthony Davis — made 52.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for Memphis in their last seven contests. The Grizzlies have also allowed their last six opponents to score at least 105 points — but they have then played 9 straight home games Under the Total after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games. Led by remaining holdovers from the Grit-n-Grind days of yore in Mike Conley and Marc Gasol, this team still plays good defense — they currently rank 8th in the NBA in Defensive Rating. But their play on offense has been a disaster. They made only 37.5% of their shots on Monday while scoring a mere 35 points in the second-half. Over their last nine games, the Grizzlies are last in the NBA by scoring only 97.0 PPG — and they are second-to-last over that span with a 43.6% field goal percentage. Gasol’s skills seem to be in decline. He is scoring only 13 PPG while making less than 40% of his shots since December. The team also misses Kyle Anderson’s scoring punch as he is out two to four weeks with an injury. Memphis stays at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Grizzlies have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 8 straight games at home Under the Total priced in that +/- 3-point range. Charlotte has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points on the road. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. This team is playing well on the defensive end of the court as of late. Over their last five games, they have held those opponents to just a 44.7% field goal percentage as compared to their 46.5% opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. The Hornets have a Defensive Rating that ranks 7th in the NBA over that span which is well above their 20th rating for the season. But Charlotte struggles to score on the road where the role players to rising superstar Kemba Walker fail to offer support. The Hornets make only 43.6% of their shots on the road as compared to their 45.2% field goal percentage for the season. The Under is 3-0-1 in Charlotte’s last 4 games on the road — and the Under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against Western Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams come off bad losses — which should ensure a much better work rate from both teams tonight. While effort does not always translate into scoring, it should produce better defensive performances. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (553) and Memphis Grizzlies (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-19 |
Patriots v. Chiefs UNDER 57 |
Top |
37-31 |
Loss |
-109 |
45 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: New England (12-5) reached the AFC Championship Game last Sunday with their 41-28 win at home over the LA Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite. Kansas City (13-4) has won their last two games after their 31-13 win over Indianapolis last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. This is a rematch of the Patriots’ 43-40 win against the Chiefs in Foxboro back on October 14th as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While an Arctic blast will not be hitting Arrowhead Stadium for this game, the temperature will still be in the 20s during this game to produce less than ideal conditions for both offenses. It is telling this is the highest over/under number for a game with the temperatures expected to be below 30 degrees since the Patriots played the Packers at Lambeau Field back on 2014 which New England lost by a 26-21 score. It would be foolish to take the Under only because that Under came through — but that comparison does underscore that the number is unseasonably high despite these weather conditions. This rematch is unlikely to approach the 83 combined points that were scored in Foxboro. The Patriots scored just under 10 points more than their season average at home in Foxboro for that game — but they see their scoring drop to just 21.6 PPG on the road. They have only scored 28 or more points once away from home this year. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road while also playing 14 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. New England’s lack of a vertical threat on offense after the loss of wide receiver Josh Gordon will make moving the ball much more difficult this time around. They ate up a KC defense in that first meeting that allows 34.3 PPG on the road — but that number plummets to just 17.4 PPG at home which is tied for the third-best mark in the NFL. The noise of the Arrowhead home crowd certainly helps to disrupt opposing offenses snap counts and the ability of opposing quarterbacks to call audibles at the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs’ pass rush thrives at home as well — they lead the NFL with 34 sacks at home and a pressure rate of 36.9% as compared to their 25.9% pressure rate on quarterbacks on the road which ranks only 26th in the league. Kansas City has played 19 of their last 27 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Chiefs have also played 4 straight playoff games Under the Total in the playoffs. Kansas City has scored at least 31 points in three straight games — but they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. Don’t underestimate what Belichick will be able to do to slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ defense in this rematch — and his experience coaching games in cold weather will likely make the challenge on the young quarterback even more difficult. Mahomes was tearing up the league by averaging 9.34 Yards-Per-Attempt in the first eleven weeks of the season — but defenses have caught up a bit since he has seen that number drop to 7.6 YPA in his last six starts.
FINAL TAKE: While 83 combined points were scored between these two teams in their first meeting, this rematch should seem far fewer points this time around. 25* AFC Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-19 |
Rams v. Saints UNDER 57.5 |
|
26-23 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (14-3) has won three straight games with their 30-22 win over Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. New Orleans (14-3) reached the NFC Conference Championship Game with their 20-14 win over Philadelphia last Sunday as an 8.5-point favorite. This is a rematch of the Saints’ 45-35 win in New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog back on November 4th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles ran the ball 48 times for 273 yards in their win over the Cowboys which allowed them to control the Time of Possession for 36:13 minutes of that game. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Since Jared Goff suffered disappointing games against Chicago and Philadelphia, head coach Sean McVay has transitioned the offense into a run-oriented team. In their last four games, Los Angeles has run the ball in 131 of their 212 offensive plays for a 61.7% of their plays some scrimmage. It is likely that McVay will want to continue this commitment to running the football. Rushing the football also allows them to take full advantage of their offensive line that might be the best in the NFL. The late-season acquisition of running back C.J. Anderson has given them a power back that is a nice complement to Todd Gurley. Controlling the Time of Possession can help keep the New Orleans crowd out of the game while keeping Drew Brees off the field. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on the road. Los Angeles has held their eight home opponents to just 19.9 PPG along with only 338.4 total YPG. The Rams defense has been even better since the return of cornerback Aqib Talib. While LA was allowing 30.8 PPG while surrendering 272.6 passing YPG in the games they have played this season without an injured Talib on the field, those numbers improved significantly to them allowing just 17.8 PPG along with only 206.3 passing YPG with Talib healthy and supporting Marcus Peters as the second starting cornerback. Furthermore, the Rams have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. New Orleans gained 425 yards in their victory over the Eagles last week. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Saints have also evolved into a control the clock offensive team that was best embodied by an eighteen play drive in the 3rd quarter against Philadelphia that lasted over 11 minutes. New Orleans held the football for 37:15 minutes which helped them hold the Eagles to just 250 yards of offense — and only 100 yards over the final three-quarters of that game. This zeal to control Time of Possession is one of the reasons why the Saints have averaged just 19 PPG over their last eight games. Their defense should get some of the credit for the drop in the Saints’ scoring numbers as well since head coach Sean Payton does not have to game plan to reach 30 points to have a chance to win. Throw out that Week 17 game with the Panthers and the Saints have allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last eight contests while holding seven of those opponents to under 17 points. New Orleans is second in the NFL by allowing just 80.2 rushing YPG — and they rank 3rd in the league by limiting opposing rushers to just 3.98 Yards-Per-Carry. The Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: While the first meeting between these two teams was one of the highest-scoring games of the season, this rematch profiles differently with both offensive head coaches enamored with the prospect of controlling Time of Possession by sustaining longer drives. With the number again in the high-50s, expect a lower-scoring game. 10* NFL LA Rams-New Orleans O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-17-19 |
Texas-San Antonio v. Middle Tennessee UNDER 144.5 |
Top |
86-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (621) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (622). UTSA (10-7) has won seven straight games with their 76-74 win over North Texas as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Middle Tennessee (3-14) has lost three straight games after their 73-56 loss at Louisiana Tech on Saturday as a 13-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: UTSA has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win against a conference rival. The Road Runners have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. UTSA has held their last five opponents to just a 40.1% field goal percentage. The Road Runners lead Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in four games so far this season — and they rank 105th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall. But UTSA also ranks a low 328th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 45.3%. The Road Runners make just 38.3% of their shots on the road. UTSA has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on their home court. The Road Runners have also played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Middle Tennessee has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Blue Raiders made only four of their ten free throws in that game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after shooting no better than 53% from the charity stripe in their last game. Middle Tennessee struggles to make baskets — they are 339th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.0% and the Blue Raiders are 329th in the country in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But this team does hold their visitors to just a 39.3% opponent’s field goal percentage. They have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Middle Tennessee has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 24 games as an underdog, the Blue Raiders have played 15 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams struggle to score baskets — but they are solid on the defensive end of the court (particularly with Middle Tennessee playing at home). These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — expect another lower-scoring game between these two teams. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (621) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-14-19 |
Florida State v. Pittsburgh UNDER 146 |
Top |
62-75 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (869) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (870). THE SITUATION: Florida State (13-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 80-78 loss to Duke as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. Pittsburgh (11-5) has also lost two of their last three contests with their 86-80 loss at NC State on Saturday as an 11-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Florida State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Additionally, the Seminoles have played 27 of their last 37 games Under the total after a loss by 3 points or less. Now this team goes on the road where they are making only 43.1% of their shots. But this Florida State team plays outstanding defense as they rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Seminoles have held their last five opponents to just a 40.6% field goal percentage. Florida State has played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Under is also 9-3-1 in the Seminoles’ last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Pittsburgh has played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total — and this includes them playing six straight games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Now the Panthers return home where they have played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total. Pittsburgh has also played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. This team also plays well on the defensive end of the court. They rank 37th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency led by an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.2% which is 13th best in the nation. The Panthers hold their guests to just 65.1 PPG on their home court with a low 38.4% field goal percentage. Pittsburgh has also played 40 of their last 57 games Under the Total in ACC play.
FINAL TAKE: This is an important game for Pittsburgh who are probably on the outside-looking-in right now in earning an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. Defeating Florida State would be the best win on their resume. Expect this to be a lower-scoring game. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (869) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (870). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-19 |
Eagles v. Saints OVER 50.5 |
Top |
14-20 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (10-7) has won four straight games with Nick Foles under center after their 16-15 upset win at Chicago last Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog. New Orleans (13-3) closed out their regular season with a 33-14 upset loss to Carolina as an 8-point favorite. This is a rematch of the Week Eleven meeting between these two teams back on November 18th where the Saints destroyed the Eagles in the Superdome by a 48-7 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Saints’ head coach Sean Payton had the luxury of resting most of his key starters in that loss to the Panthers. The New Orleans starters have essentially had three weeks off to get rested and ready for the playoffs — and this is a team that has played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total when coming off a bye week. This team is getting healthy again with the biggest boost being with the return of left tackle Terron Armstead whose shoulder injury played a big role in Brees’ mini-slump late in the season. The Saints’ offense is a machine when at home — they average 34.1 PPG while putting up over 400 yards of offense this season. Brees has an impeccable 21:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when playing at home while averaging 9.54 Yards-Per-Attempt as compared to his 11:4 ratio and 6.88 YPA marks on the road. New Orleans has played 21 of their 30 games Over the Total at home — and the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Saints have played 6 straight playoff games at home Over the Total. They face a Philadelphia defense has been decimated with injuries — and while the three new defensive backs that were exposed in the first meeting between these two teams have developed, that does not change the fact these three players remain NFL-level backup players with size and/or speed deficiencies now facing Drew Brees again. Four of the last five opponents that the Eagles have faced have generated at least 300 passing yards. Brees will be facing a defense that has allowed their last four of their last five opposing quarterbacks to average 11.6 Yards-Per-Attempt while throwing five touchdown passes of over 20 yards in the air. Brees has an impeccable 128.6 Passer Rating of passes of at least 20 yards in the air this season. Philadelphia has simply been exposed by good offenses. In their six games against playoff teams during the regular season, the Eagles surrendered 28.8 PPG with that number rising to a 33.3 PPG mark when playing on the road as compared to the 17.5 PPG they held their twelve opponents who did not make the playoffs with that mark actually falling to 16.8 PPG surrendered when playing non-playoff teams on the road. I do expect the Nick Foles-led offense to keep pace with the Saints scoring as the New Orleans defense gives up 25.6 PPG along with 373.4 total YPG when playing at home. Besides the calming presence Foles apparently provides his teammates in the huddle, a big strength he provides to head coach Doug Pederson and this Eagles offense is his quick decision-making and release. In this last four-game stretch, Foles is averaging just 2.2 seconds per pass attempt which is the fastest rate in all the NFL during that span. This skill is liberating the Philly offensive coaching brethren to get creative with their play-calling. The Eagles’ offensive line has responded as well — Foles is seeing a clean pocket in 70.4% of his passing plays over their last four games in a metric that is even more impressive considering that they played the ferocious Bears’ defense and three other defenses that rank in the Top 15 in sacks. Philadelphia has played 22 of their last 30 games on the road Over the Total — and this includes them playing five of their last seven home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road and four of their last five games Over the Total when playing on field turf.
FINAL TAKE: I don’t think the Saints get to 48 points again today — but they should approach their 34.1 PPG scoring average when playing at home. The Philly offense will be much better in this rematch — and I see them scoring in the 25.6 PPG range that the Saints are giving up at home. If both those projections are accurate, we get our Over with room to spare. 10* NFL Philadelphia-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-19 |
Chargers v. Patriots UNDER 48 |
|
28-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (305) and the New England Patriots (306). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (13-4) has won six of their last seven games with their 23-17 upset win at Baltimore last week as a 3-point underdog. New England (11-5) has won two straight games to close out the regular season with their 38-3 win over the New York Jets as a 14.5-point favorite two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 6 straight games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Los Angeles’ decision to deploy seven defensive backs maximized their speed on the field — and it stymied the Baltimore innovative rushing attack behind rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. Look for similar six and seven defensive back schemes against the Patriots this week. Tom Brady’s physical skills have (finally!) begun to decline — and they lack a dynamic deep threat with the loss of wide receiver Josh Gordon. Patriots’ tight end Rob Gronkowski has also seen a significant decline in his skills. The Chargers can sub defensive backs for linebackers and let Brady dink-and-dunk them to death — which means long scoring drives and a running clock helping our Under. The Los Angeles defense ranks 8th in the NFL by allowing only 20.6 PPG while also ranking 9th in the league by giving up just 333.7 total YPG. Over their last three games, the Chargers are giving up only 16.0 PPG along with just 320.0 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns. The Patriots generated 375 yards of offense in their last game against the Jets — but they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. New England has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Patriots have allowed only 32 combined points over their last three games with none of those three teams scoring more than 17 points. The New England defense is very stingy at home as they hold their guests to just 16.6 PPG along with a mere 319.5 total YPG — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total at home. Bill Belichick has done a great job of containing Rivers as well. In his last four starts against the Patriots, Rivers has led his team to only 17.0 PPG. And to compound matters, even more, he is facing a New England defense that leads the NFL by playing man-to-man in 57% of their defensive snaps. All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore may be enjoying his best season — he has allowed the second fewest yards after catch this year. He will make things very difficult for wide receiver Keenan Allen. And Rivers averages 7.99 Yards-Per-Attempt against man-to-man coverage this season as compared to his 9.55 YPP mark against zone defenses. Rivers has seen his production decline as of late — he only has one touchdown pass in his last three games. Over that span, the Chargers are scoring just 18.7 PPG over these last three games while average just 239.0 total YPG. Rivers has averaged just 153.7 passing YPG in those last three games with a Passer Rating of only 55.2. In this team’s first fourteen games, they averaged 28.2 PPG along with 392.0 total YPG with Rivers averaging 270.1 passing YPG and posting a 112.4 Passer Rating.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 encounters Under the Total. Playing in cold weather in the 20s, expect another lower-scoring game. 10* NFL LA Chargers-New England CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (305) and the New England Patriots (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-19 |
Cowboys v. Rams OVER 48 |
Top |
22-30 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (303) and the Los Angeles Rams (304). THE SITUATION: Dallas (11-6) advanced to the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last Saturday with their 24-22 win over Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (13-3) takes the field again after their 48-32 victory over San Francisco two weeks ago to close out their regular season.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Los Angeles should the pace-setters when it comes to scoring in this game as they average a robust 37.1 PPG along with 453.2 total YPG when playing at home. The Rams have played 4 straight home games Over the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 29 of their last 44 home games Over the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 7 point range. But defense has been a concern for this team who allows 28.1 PPG on their home field along with 378.7 total YPG. The Cowboys should be able to run the ball against the Rams’ defense that ranks just 23rd in the NFL by allowing 122.2 rushing YPG. LA allows opposing rushers to average 4.88 Yards-Per-Carry — so Ezekiel Elliott has a good opportunity to have his running the football. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Dallas enters this game having won eight of their last nine games — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Cowboys have also played 5 of the last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Dallas generated 380 yards of offense last week in their victory over the Seahawks — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Over their last three contests, this Cowboys offense that was jumpstarted with the acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper has averaged 29.0 PPG. But their vaunted defense has surrendered 25.7 PPG along with 374.3 total YPG over those last three games as well. The Dallas pass defense has declined down the stretch of the season after peaking in that big Thursday night win when they hosted New Orleans. Since that victory in Week 13, the Cowboys have allowed opposing passers to complete 65.1% of their passes while averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. These opposing QBs have thrown 7 touchdown passes with just one interception while the Dallas defense has registered only seven sacks in those last five games. The Cowboys rush defense has also struggled as of late when playing on the road. In their last four road games, Dallas has allowed 105.5 rushing YPG along with a 5.02 Yards-Per-Carry average against the middling rushing attacks of Atlanta, Philadelphia, the NY Giants and Indianapolis. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: This should be a competitive game — so look for Dallas to keep up with the Rams’ offense that should be rested and ready for this showdown. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (303) and the Los Angeles Rams (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-19 |
Colts v. Chiefs UNDER 57 |
Top |
13-31 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (11-6) advanced to the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs with their 21-7 upset win at Houston last Saturday as a 2-point underdog. Kansas City (12-4) closed out their regular season with a 35-3 victory over Oakland back on December 30th as 14.5-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: My first point is my last argument — as of this writing, there is a 90% of precipitation with the high in Kansas City being the mid-30s. If there is snow, that very much helps our Under play with the number currently set in the high-50s. I recommend getting down on this play ASAP — because if flurries appear, this number will go down. That said, even if there is no snow during this game, the Under is a strong play (and it is a strong play with a lower number if it does, in fact, snow). Cold weather does not help passing games with quarterbacks and receivers playing with cold hands and less than ideal conditions — remember the Rams playing in chilly Chicago for Sunday Night Football last month. Patrick Mahomes had three of his five games where he failed to generate at least 300 passing yards in the cooler December weather. The Chiefs’ offensive numbers dipped a bit over their last three games as they scored 31.3 PPG while averaging 374.0 total YPG which was 4.0 PPG and over 50 YGP below their season averages. Mahomes may also have some jitters and rust with the extra week off before making his playoff debut — and it does not take many failed drives to make the Over with this high Total unlikely. The Kansas City defense is not great — but they were significantly better at home where they held their opponents to just 18.0 PPG/354.7 YPG as compared to the 34.3 PPG/456.3 YPG they surrendered when playing on the road. The tendency for games played at Arrowhead Stadium trend strongly to the Under as those tickets are 49-22-1 in the last 72 games played there. The Under is also 16-7-1 in KC’s last 24 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and the Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total in the playoffs. Indianapolis has played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road as an underdog. The Colts generated 422 yards of offense in that game — but they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Quarterback Andrew Luck has been great all season — but he has thrived at home where he is completing 70.7% of his passes with that number dropping to a 64.2% mark when playing on the road. Wide receiver certainly sees his production decline when playing outside where he averages 24.8 receiving YPG — and he is slowed with an ankle injury still. Indianapolis has played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when playing a winning record at home. The Colts formula for success will likely be to run the football to burn clock and keep Mahomes off the field — especially when playing in a hostile environment. They score only 23.9 PPG when playing away from home. Indy holds their home hosts to scoring just 20.9 PPG — and they have held their last three opponents to only 17.0 PPG along with 324.0 total YPG. Indianapolis should be able to slow down Kansas City offensive juggernaut living life now without running back Kareem Hunt as they are 8th in the NFL by allowing 101.8 rushing YPG — and they hold opposing rushers to just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry.
FINAL TAKE: Defenses have caught up a bit with the explosive Chiefs offense — but the Total remains historically high for this divisional round playoff game. Indy wants a shorter game to put Luck in a position to outduel Mahomes — and that is a formula for the Under. And if there is snow, both of these offenses might slow significantly down. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-08-19 |
Missouri State v. Indiana State OVER 147.5 |
|
72-57 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Missouri State Bears (623) and the Indiana State Sycamores (624). THE SITUATION: Missouri State (6-9) has lost two straight games after their upset 82-66 loss to Valparaiso on Saturday as a 5-point favorite. Indiana State (9-5) snapped their two-game losing streak on Saturday with their 65-60 win over Bradley as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Missouri State has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road after being upset as a home favorite in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 18-7-1 in the Bears’ last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games after a point spread setback. Now Missouri State goes back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to shoot 52% from the field which is translating into 83.7 PPG. The Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bears are also scoring 80.6 PPG over their last five contests. They have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 20 of their last 25 games Over the Total as an underdog. And in their last 10 games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range, Missouri State has played 8 of these games Over the Total. Indiana State has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. The Sycamores made just 31.4% of their shots on Saturday against Bradley which was the lowest field goal percentage for them this season. But they also experienced an outlier defensive effort by holding Bradley to just a 33.3% field goal percentage which was the second-best defensive effort of the season. Indiana State has still allowed their last five opponents to make 48% of their shots. This team has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a victory at home. The Over is also 18-7-1 in the Sycamores’ last 26 games after a point spread win. Indiana State has played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight games Over the Total in their last 5 meetings. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Missouri State Bears (623) and the Indiana State Sycamores (624). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-07-19 |
Alabama v. Clemson OVER 57.5 |
Top |
16-44 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 50 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (151) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship Game two Saturdays ago with their dominant 30-3 win over Notre Dame as a 10.5-point favorite. Alabama (14-0) later matched that effort in the nightcap of the College Football Playoff Semifinals with their 45-34 victory against Oklahoma as a 14.5-point favorite. These two teams play for the National Championship in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both these teams have top-five scoring offenses and defenses — but I think both teams’ offenses seem a little of their defense and the urgency of this contest should eventually push the scoring Over the Total. Alabama is second in the nation by scoring 47.7 PPG while ranking fourth in the FBS by averaging 527.6 total YPG. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa competed 24 of 27 passes against the Sooners defense last week for 318 yards with four touchdown passes to lead the Crimson Tide to victory. The Over is 19-9-1 in Alabama’s last 29 games after they pass for at least 280 yards in their last game. This dynamic passing attack is a new wrinkle for a Nick Saban Crimson Tide team as they rank 6th in the nation by averaging 325.6 passing YPG. While Bama has sported elite wide receivers who have found great success in the NFL, Saban may have recruited his most diverse set of receiver targets for this season’s offense. They should exploit a vulnerable Clemson secondary that was torched for 430 passing yards by Texas A&M and 510 passing yards by South Carolina. Alabama has played 23 of their last 32 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field when favored — and they have played eleven of their last sixteen bowl games Over the Total including six of their last seven major bowl games played in January. The Tide have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC. Furthermore, Alabama has played 7 straight games Over the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 points range. But the Crimson Tide displayed some weaknesses in their defense again Oklahoma by allowing 471 yards of offense. The Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bama secondary was a question mark for this team entering the season with them losing their top six defensive backs from last year’s depth chart. Alabama allowed the Sooners to pass for 308 yards after Georgia passed for 301 yards in their last two games. Dabo Swinney made the move at quarterback early in the season to prepare freshman Trevor Lawrence for this potential rematch because of his strong arm. The 6’5 gunslinger completed 27 of 39 passes against the Fighting Irish for 327 yards with three touchdowns. He leads an offense that has averaged 567.0 total YPG over their last three games. Overall, Clemson ranks 4th in the nation by averaging 44.3 PPG while generating 530.4 total YPG which ranks 3rd in the FBS. The Tigers have only allowed 13 combined points over their last two games — but they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game while also playing 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not giving up more than 14 points in two straight games. Furthermore, the Tigers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 5 games played in the month of January, the Tigers have played 4 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is the fourth straight season that these two teams have met in the College Football Playoffs. Alabama won the first game by a 45-40 score before Clemson won the rematch in January 2017 in a 35-31 contest. The Tide won in last year’s Semifinals in a defensive contest with Clemson using Kelly Bryant at quarterback in a 24-6 result. Expect the fourth chapter of this series to resemble the first two in it being a high-scoring shootout. 25* College Football Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (151) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-06-19 |
Eagles v. Bears UNDER 42 |
|
16-15 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (107) and the Chicago Bears (108). THE SITUATION: Chicago (12-4) has won four straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 24-10 upset at Minnesota last week as a 6-point underdog. Philadelphia (9-7) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six games with their 24-0 win at Washington as a 6-point favorite last week to sneak into the playoffs with that Vikings loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset win as an underdog. The Bears have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they held the Vikings to just 63 rushing yards last week, Chicago has then played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, while the Bears have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of the last five games. This Chicago defense is outstanding — they are holding their opponents to less than 1.5 points-per-drive while forcing a turnover in almost 20% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank first in the NFL by allowing only 17.7 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the NFL by giving up just 299.7 total YPG. Furthermore, over their last three games, the Bears are allowing only 12.0 PPG along with just 255.3 total YPG. Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 4 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Bears have played all 4 games Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 12 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total after a win by at least three touchdowns. And while the Eagles outrushed the Skins by 108 net yards, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after out-rushing their last opponent by at least 100 yards in their last game. But this Eagles’ offense tends to stall if they cannot establish a credible rushing attack — and they are now facing the NFL stingiest run defense in the league as the Bears allow only 80.0 rushing YPG. Philadelphia has only scored more than 24 points twice in their eight road games this season — and they have yet to play a defense as stout as this Chicago unit. The Bears have the personnel to not have to blitz Nick Foles and drop back linebackers into pass coverage. Last year’s Super Bowl MVP has struggled when facing zone defenses against which he averages just 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt with zero touchdown passes with three interceptions and five sacks — as compared to his 10.6 YPA mark against man-to-man defense with 5 five touchdown passes, zero interceptions and just one sack. Foles too often becomes a dink-and-dunker as he is last in the NFL by averaging a mere 6.7 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Lastly, the Under is 5-2-1 in the Eagles’ last 8 games in the month of January.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles will have trouble scoring against this stout Bears’ defense. But the Bears are likely to struggle to move the ball as well with Mitchell Trubisky playing in his first playoff game. The weather looks to be in the low-40s with it pretty windy at 15 Miles-Per-Hour which might impact his deeper passes down the field. Chicago also has a host of injuries at wide receiver — and while Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, and Taylor Gabriel are all listed as probable, their effectiveness for today’s game remains in doubt. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Chicago NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (107) and the Chicago Bears (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-06-19 |
Indiana v. Michigan UNDER 131 |
|
63-74 |
Loss |
-112 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
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At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Hoosiers (809) and the Michigan Wolverines (810). THE SITUATION: Indiana (12-2) has won seven straight games after their 73-65 win over Illinois on Thursday as an 11-point favorite. Michigan (14-0) remained undefeated this season with their 68-55 win over Penn State as an 11-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hoosiers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Now after playing their last three games at home, Indiana goes back on the road where they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing at least three straight at home in Bloomington. The Hoosiers are averaging 78.5 PPG this season while making 52.6% of their shots — but those offensive numbers plummet to just 69.0 PPG along with a 44.5% field goal percentage when they are playing on the road. The Under is 13-3-1 in Indiana’s last 17 games on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. The Hoosiers have also played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Indiana does play outstanding defense as they rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Michigan was ranked tops in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency but have dropped to merely third in the country in that metric after some sluggish defensive efforts (along with encountering some hot shooting) in some December contests with South Carolina, Western Michigan, and Air Force. But Big Ten play should re-focus this stellar defensive group that used their skills on that end of the court to reach last year’s National Championship Game. The Wolverines have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a point spread victory. They stay at home where they hold their guests to just 55.7 PPG along with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39.6%. Michigan has played 4 straight games Under the Total. They also have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Wolverines will need to rely on their defense with one of their spark plugs on offense coming off the bench in Isaiah Livers questionable for this game with a back injury that kept him out of that game with the Nittany Lions earlier this week.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when facing off in Ann Arbor. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams. 20* CBB Indiana-Michigan O/U CBS-TV Special with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Hoosiers (809) and the Michigan Wolverines (810). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-06-19 |
Chargers v. Ravens UNDER 42 |
Top |
23-17 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (105) and the Baltimore Ravens (106). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (12-4) has won five of their last six games with their 23-9 win at Denver as a 7-point favorite last week. Baltimore (10-6) has won three games in a row with their 26-24 victory over Cleveland as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. This is a rematch of the Ravens’ 22-10 upset victory in Los Angeles back on December 22nd as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have seen the Under go a decisive 35-15-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Under is also 10-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 15 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Chargers have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Los Angeles defense is one of the best in the league by allowing just 20.1 PPG which is 8th in the NFL — and that number drops to 19.8 PPG when playing on the road. The Chargers have a huge benefit in facing the new run-dominant Ravens offense two weeks ago. It is a challenge to prepare for this Baltimore offense since practice squads do not have players that can adequately replicate rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson’s skill set. In this quick turnaround rematch, look for the Chargers’ defense to stay committed to assignment football which is the most effective way to slow down these wishbone style rushing attacks. Don’t be surprised if Los Angeles also has their defensive backs employ inside presses along while running some corner or safety blitzes to put the pressure on Jackson. The rookie has completed only 17 of 34 passes when facing a blitz this season while getting sacked 5 times. The Chargers should force Jackson to beat him with his arm — and he was not adept in his college career in accurately delivering fade route passes that he should be forced into making this afternoon. 115 of Jackson’s 185 pass attempts this season (68%) have been no longer than 10 passing yards — so daring him to execute medium and longer passes should be the order of the day. However, a problem for the Chargers has been that their offense has been sputtering as of late after suffering their worst points and yardage games for the season in each of the last two seasons. 7 of their points last week against the Broncos were from an 18-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown — and their only touchdown the previous week against the Ravens was from a short drive after recovering a fumble at the 17-yard line. Quarterback Philip Rivers has thrown for less than 220 yards in three of his last four starts while tossing six interceptions over his last three games. To compound matters, Los Angeles will be traveling east to play this 1 PM ET game with their body clocks thinking it is 10 AM (with me). The Chargers have played two straight games Under the Total — and they have then played 7 straight road games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. And while LA has only allowed two field goals in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. And while the Broncos gained 370 yards against them last week, the Chargers have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Baltimore gave up an uncharacteristic 426 yards last week to the Browns — but they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Cleveland only had 56 offensive plays in that game which was 10.6 snaps below their season average. One of the benefits of the Ravens’ commitment to running the football is burning time off the clock. Baltimore has averaged 45.1 rushes per game in the seven games that Jackson has started — and this has correlated to opposing offenses averaging 10.9 fewer offensive plays during that span. The Ravens have the best statistical defense in the NFL by allowing 292.0 total YPG and they rank second in the league by giving up only 17.9 PPG. Over their last three games, Baltimore has allowed just 15.3 PPG along with only 288.3 total YPG. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Under the Total when playing at home — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games in the month of January.
FINAL TAKE: This game features two good defenses that just faced the respective offenses two weeks ago. Combine that dynamic with a Chargers team that likes to control Time of Possession facing a Baltimore team obsessed with controlling the clock — and the result is a great formula for the Under. 25* AFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (105) and the Baltimore Ravens (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-05-19 |
Seahawks v. Cowboys OVER 42 |
Top |
22-24 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-6) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 27-24 win over Arizona as a 14-point favorite last week. Dallas (10-6) has also won two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests with their 36-35 victory in New York against the Giants as a 7.5-point underdog. This is a rematch of the Seahawks 24-13 win at home in Seattle as a 2-point favorite back on September 30th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Seattle has become a power running team that has averaged at least 28 rushing attempts per game since Week Two. But this team’s ability to burn time off the clock does not necessarily translate into a bunch of Unders. The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against NFC rivals — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. This running of the football sets up their play-action passing which they deploy in 32% of their pass attempts which is the second most in the NFL — and they are sixth in the league by averaging 8.8 Yards-Per-Play from play-action. The Cowboys are vulnerable against play-action passing — they have only seen in it 21% of their opponent’s pass attempts but they are in the bottom half of the league by allowing 7.9 YPP against play-action. Play-action also sets up QB Russell Wilson to throw the deep ball — and he ranks second in the NFL by averaging 15.6 YPP when throwing at least 16 yards past the line of scrimmage. The Seattle play-action game is so dangerous because opposing defenses have to commit to slow down their rushing attack that leads the NFL by averaging 160.0 rushing YPG. The Seahawks trio of running backs of Chris Carson, Mike Davis and Rashard Penny combine to average 4.6 YPC. The Cowboys’ defense has allowed 26.0 PPG along with 398.0 total YPG over their last three games. Seattle has averaged 29.3 PPG along with 380.0 total YPG over their last three contests. They go on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 31 of their last 46 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. The Seahawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total in the playoffs. Dallas has played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. The Cowboys will have a rested Ezekiel Elliott who got last week off to mend and rest for this game. They managed just 51 rushing yards last week — but they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Dallas is getting as healthy again on their offensive line with Tyron Smith, Connor Williams and Zack Martin all upgraded to probable for this game. The Cowboys should be able to find success running the football against this Seahawks defense that has allowed opposing rushers to average 5.13 Yards-Per-Carry since Week Nine. Dallas gets to host this game where they score 25.0 PPG while averaging 363.4 total YPG. Of course, the Cowboys season numbers on offense are skewed down because their acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper transformed their offense by offering QB Dak Prescott a legitimate number one wide receiver target — and the mere threat of Cooper down the field opens the running game up for Elliott. In their three-game homestand from Thanksgiving until the second Sunday in December against Washington, New Orleans, and Philadelphia, Dallas averaged 429.3 YPG which demonstrates the positive impact Cooper had on their offense. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 45 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams seem likely to be able to move the ball running the football — and that will open up their respective passing attacks. This shapes up to be a close game — and the urgency of this single-elimination playoff game should push the scoring into the high-40s. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-05-19 |
Colts v. Texans UNDER 48.5 |
|
21-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (101) and the Houston Texans (102). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-5) has won two of their last three games after their 20-3 win over Jacksonville as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (10-6) has won four straight games after they defeated the Titans in Tennessee last Sunday night to clinch the final wildcard spot in the AFC. These two teams will be meeting for the third time: the Texans won the first matchup on September 30th by a 37-34 score as a 1-point favorite before the Colts won the rematch on December 9th by a 24-21 upset score despite being a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Indianapolis has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a victory over a fellow AFC South rival. And while the Colts generated 436 yards in that contest, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. While QB Andrew Luck gets most of the attention, their defense has been playing quite well as of late. Over their last three games, Indy is allowing just 14.7 PPG along with only 314.0 total YPG. In their last eight games, the Colts are allowing just 74.6 rushing YPG while limiting opposing rushers to only 3.47 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Indianapolis stays on the road where have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Colts have also played 7 of their last 9 playoff games on the road Under the Total. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and in their last 15 games against AFC South rivals, the Colts have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC South opponents. The Texans have also played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Houston stays at home for this game where they are holding their visitors to just 17.0 PPG along with only 327.2 total YPG. The Texans are 3rd in the league by limiting their opponents to just 82.7 rushing YPG. But Houston is averaging only 333.0 total YPG over their last three games which is -29.6 net YPG below their season average. The Texans leaky offensive line is taking a toll on quarterback DeShaun Watson as he has been sacked a whopping 32 times over his last seven starts. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. While the first game between these two teams was a shootout, the second game in Houston saw 45 combined points. Look for the defenses to have a small net advantage in the third meeting between these two teams. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Houston O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (101) and the Houston Texans (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-05-19 |
Georgia v. Tennessee UNDER 148.5 |
|
50-96 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (667) and the Tennessee Volunteers (668). THE SITUATION: Georgia (8-4) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 91-72 win over UMass as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Tennessee (11-1) has won seven straight contests with their 96-53 win over Tennessee Tech as a big 33-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Georgia enjoyed their best offensive effort of the season in that game as they made 53.8% of their shots from the field — but they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. The Bulldogs also allowed the Minutemen to make 42.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them in their last six contests. First-year head coach Tom Crean has his team playing outstanding defense — they have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 38% and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.7% is 15th lowest in the nation. Now Georgia goes on the road where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow SEC opponents. Tennessee has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against SEC opponents. The Volunteers have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The made 63.8% of their shots last Saturday which was their best field goal percentage of the season — but they have then played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. They stay at home where they are holding their guests to just 58.0 PPG along with a field goal percentage of 33.5%. Tennessee has also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: This is the conference debut for both teams. The Bulldogs have a tough assignment slowing down this potent Vols scoring attack — but Crean is a good teacher in fundamental defense. However, Georgia may have difficulty scoring given their 68.6 PPG average away from him which over 10 points lower than their season average. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (667) and the Tennessee Volunteers (668). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-04-19 |
Ball State v. Toledo OVER 151.5 |
Top |
79-64 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (805) and the Toledo Rockets (806). Ball State (9-4) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 116-57 win over Delaware State last Saturday as a 29.5-point favorite. Toledo (12-1) looks to build off their 77-45 win over Penn on Saturday as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Ball State has also played 7 straight games on the road Over the Total after a double-digit win on their home court. The Cardinals made 55.7% of their shots in that game which was the sixth time in their last seven games where they shot at least 50.9% from the field. Ball State has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after making at least 55% of their shots. This is a veteran team with four returning starters along with three impact transfers from last year’s team that finished 19-13. The Cardinals are 39th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while ranking 11th in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 57.3%. Ball State makes 38.2% of their 3-point shots which is the 36th best mark in the nation. They go on the road where they are making 49.2% of their shots while scoring 76.0 PPG and allowing 77.0 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Cardinals have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Toledo has played 26 of their last 38 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Rockets are also an explosive offensive team that ranks 42nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 16th in the nation with a 3-point field goal percentage of 39.8%. Toledo stays at home where they are 7-0 this season while scoring 86.7 PPG and making 47.3% of their shots. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 35 of their last 54 home games Over the Total as the favorite laying no more than 6 points. Furthermore, the Rockets have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Coincidentally, both these teams are coming off their best defensive performances of the season with Ball State and Toledo holding their last opponent to just 30.1% and 30.5% field goal percentages. These two teams have played 14 of their last 20 meetings Over the Total. Expect a higher-scoring game between these teams that will be competing to with the Mid-American Conference championship. 25* CBB Friday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (805) and the Toledo Rockets (806). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-02-19 |
Magic v. Bulls UNDER 199.5 |
Top |
112-84 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (513) and the Chicago Bulls (514). Orlando (16-20) has lost five of their last seven games with their 125-100 loss at Charlotte as an 8.5-point underdog on Monday. Chicago (10-27) has lost two of their last three games with their 95-89 loss at Toronto as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Orlando has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss where at least 225 combined points were scored. Furthermore, the Magic have played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and this includes them playing six of their last eight games Under the Total after a loss away from home. This team is dealing with a host on injuries with the worst being at point guard where starter D.J. Augustin and backup Jonathan Simmons dealing with ankle injuries. Not all injuries disproportionally impact one end of the court but Orlando really misses Augustin’s 11.5 PPG along with a 4.9 Assists-Per-Game average along with his 43.8% shooting from behind the arc. The Magic have resorted to using Jerian Grant primary point guard but his lack of penetration skills to the paint limits their offense. Grant started in their last loss to the Hornets where Orlando shot just 41.3% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. The Magic may also be without center Nikola Vucevic who is questionable with a calf injury. Now Orlando goes on the road where they score 100.6 PPG with a 43.1% field goal percentage while allowing 103.1 PPG with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 44.1% — and all those numbers are below their 103.4 PPG/44.4% offensive and 107.5 PPG/45.9% defensive numbers for the season. The Magic have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road - — and they have played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Orlando has also played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Magic will have revenge on their minds from a 90-80 loss at Chicago back on December 21st — and they have played 30 of their last 47 games Under the Total when avenging a road loss with seven of those last ten circumstances finishing Under the Total. Chicago has seen the Under go 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. The Bulls have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. Chicago is last in the NBA by scoring just 100.4 PPG. Interim head coach Jim Boylen is preaching to his players to embrace a slowed-down grinding style on offense perhaps as a contrarian philosophy to all the teams that have gone up-tempo this season. The Bulls are scoring only 97.2 PPG over their last five games — and being without their injured point guard Bobby Portis who is dealing with an ankle injury of his own does not help. But Chicago is playing better defense with this approach as they have held their last five opponents to just 95.6 PPG along with a low opponent’s field goal percentage of 40.9%. Those defensive numbers are a far cry from the 109.3 PPG and 45.3% field goal percentage they sport for the season — so perhaps Boyle is on to something for this team. The Bulls return home where they have played 13 of their last 18 home games Under the Total — and this includes them playing four of their last five home games Under the Total. The Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in the last 46 games when Chicago was favored, they have played 30 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing in Chicago. With the injuries with Orlando and the new emphasis on defense with the Bulls, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (513) and the Chicago Bulls (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-02-19 |
Mavs v. Hornets OVER 221.5 |
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122-84 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (505) and the Charlotte Hornets (506). THE SITUATION: Dallas (17-19) has lost two of their last three games with their 122-102 loss at Oklahoma City on Monday as a 7.5-point underdog. Charlotte (18-18) has won two of their last three games with their 125-100 win over Orlando as a 8.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Over their last five games, Dallas is scoring 111.8 PPG while allowing 115.8 PPG which over 4 PPG above their season defensive average. Now they go on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, the Mavs have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with the Total in the 220 to 229.5 point range. Charlotte has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a win over a divisional rival — and this includes them playing five straight Overs in that situation. The Hornets have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Now this team stays at home where they are scoring 114.1 PPG while hitting 47% of their shots. They have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total with the number set in the 220 to 229.5 point range — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the number set in that range. Over their last five games, Charlotte has scored 117.2 PPG while allowing 114.0 PPG. And in their last 7 games with the point spread in the +/- 3-point range, the Hornets have played 5 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a higher scoring game between these two teams. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (505) and the Charlotte Hornets (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-01-19 |
Texas v. Georgia UNDER 60 |
|
28-21 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
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At 8:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (277) and the Georgia Bulldogs (278). THE SITUATION: Texas (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st with their 39-27 loss to Oklahoma as a 9.5-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game. Georgia (11-2) looks to bounce-back from their heartbreaking 35-28 loss to Alabama as an 11-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game. These two teams meet in a consolation prize in New Orleans in the Sugar Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Georgia generated 454 yards in that loss to the Crimson Tide — and they have seen the Under go 4-1-2 in their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Georgia plays outstanding defense as they rank 14th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 18.5 PPG and limiting them to only 311.2 total YPG. The Bulldogs’ pass defense is particularly stout as they hold their opponents to only 180.5 passing YPG which is 12th best in the country. Texas may struggle to move the football as they relied heavily on their passing attack. The Longhorns averaged 264.5 passing YPG which ranked 33rd in the nation — and they often went to the pass because they average only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry when running the football. Georgia has played three straight games Over the Total — but they have then played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. And in their last 10 bowl games, the Bulldogs have played 7 of these games Under the Total. Texas has played three straight games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after playing an Under while they have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. The Longhorns have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while Texas surrendered 508 yards to the Sooners in that game, they have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Despite that game with Oklahoma, the Longhorns have played better on the defensive side of the football where they have held their last three opponents to just 22.0 PPG along with only 338.0 total YPG. This is a team that has played 31 of their last 42 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog on a neutral field getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Longhorns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in bowl games.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are run-first oriented teams. With the Total in the high-50s approaching 60, expect a lower-scoring contest. 10* CFB New Year’s Day Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (277) and the Georgia Bulldogs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-01-19 |
Washington v. Ohio State UNDER 56 |
|
23-28 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
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At 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (275) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (276). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-3) has won four straight games after they defeated Utah by a 10-3 score back on November 30th in the Pac-12 Championship Game where they were 4.5-point favorites. Ohio State (12-1) has won five straight games after they defeated Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 1st by a 45-24 score as a 16.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Pasadena in the Rose Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Washington held the Utes to just a 188 yards of offense in that contest — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Huskies are one of the best defensive teams in the nation as they hold their opponents to just 15.4 PPG which is 4th best in the nation while also holding these foes to only 301.8 total YPG which is 10th best in the country. This defense travels as they only allow 16.0 PPG when on the road along with just 307.0 total YPG. And in their last three contests, Washington is allowing only 13.7 PPG along with just 262.7 total YPG. But the Huskies offense has held them back this season — they are scoring only 20.4 PPG when away from home while averaging just 381.0 total YPG which is over 30 YPG less than their season average. Washington has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when facing a team with a winning record. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral field, the Huskies have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Ohio State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Buckeyes generated 525 yards of offense against the Wildcats’ defense — but they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Many bettors will take the Over based on the explosiveness of the Ohio State offense that ranks second in the nation by averaging 548.8 total YPG. The 62 points they put on Michigan was certainly impressive. But the Wolverines suffered some key injuries to a few of the best players on their defense in that game — and the unwillingness of their defensive coordinator to not get out of man coverage facilitated the Buckeyes’ ability to continually burn the Michigan secondary. Washington has perhaps the best secondary in the country and plays a base nickel scheme which should mitigate the advantages Ohio State enjoyed in their big rivalry game. The Buckeyes defense underperformed all season as well — the talent that team has on defense is much better than the 25.7 PPG they allowed suggests. Ohio State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after their bye week. The Buckeyes have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Ohio State’s defense should play better with the extra weeks of preparation against a specific offense. Washington allowed more than 24 points only once this season. 20* CFB Washington-Ohio State ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (275) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-01-19 |
LSU v. Central Florida UNDER 58.5 |
Top |
40-32 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 29 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (273) and the Central Florida Knights (274). THE SITUATION: LSU (9-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their final regular season game with their 74-72 loss in overtime at Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog back on November 24th. Central Florida (12-0) won the American Athletic Conference Championship Game to remain unbeaten over the last two seasons with their 56-41 win over Memphis as a 1-point favorite on December 1st. These two teams meet in Phoenix for the Fiesta Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: LSU has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-2 in the Tigers’ last 9 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games after a game where at least a combined 60 points were scored. The LSU defense was once again one of the best units in the nation as they ranked 24th in the nation by allowing only 20.9 PPG and they also ranked 29th in the FBS by giving up just 346.1 total YPG. Even with that multiple overtime game against the Aggies, the Tigers only allowed 311.7 total YPG over their last three games. Their secondary will be without their two starting cornerbacks with Greedy Williams taking the game off to prepare for the NFL draft and Kristian Fulton dealing with a foot injury. But LSU always has talent at the cornerback position — and the Tigers coaching staff has had a month to develop the next players up on the depth chart. LSU has played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing with at least two weeks between games. The Tigers outstanding defensive line will help alleviate some of the pressure that the Knights wide receivers will offer to their secondary. LSU has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total as the favorite. The Tigers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 5 of their last 7 bowl games Under the Total. Central Florida has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Knights have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 40 points — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 50 points. And while UCF generated a whopping 698 yards of offense against the Memphis defense, they have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. But the Knights surrendered 583 yards to the Memphis offense with 401 yards being on the ground. UCF has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after giving up at least 275 rushing yards in their last contest. The Knights have had a bend but not break defense that has allowed only 21.3 PPG which is 25th best in the nation. UCF has covered the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Knights’ freshman quarterback, Darriel Mack, accounted well for himself to win the AAC Championship by completing 19 of 27 passes for 348 yards while adding another 59 yards on the ground. But facing the Memphis Tigers defense is not nearly the same as facing the LSU Tigers defense with their NFL talent they put on the field. Expect the freshman to struggle against the advanced schemes LSU will throw at the rookie in just his second start of the season after he took over for the injured McKenzie Milton. The big question for this game is how this Group of Five team will handle the significant step up in competition against an elite Power-Five Conference opponent. This year’s UCF team faced only one top-25 statistical defense in Cincinnati (who just surrendered 31 points to a mediocre Virginia Tech offense). Tellingly, the Knights have seen the Under go 8-0-1 in their last 9 games against fellow SEC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: LSU will commit to running the football to control the line of scrimmage and keep the explosive UCF offense off the field. That dynamic should help contribute to this being a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (273) and the Central Florida Knights (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-31-18 |
NC State v. Texas A&M OVER 56.5 |
Top |
13-52 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (267) and the Texas A&M Aggies (268). NC State (9-3) has won three straight games with their 58-3 win over East Carolina back on December 1st as a 24.5-point favorite. Texas A&M (8-4) has also won three straight games with their 74-72 win in multiple overtimes against LSU as a 3-point favorite back on November 24th. These two teams meet in Jacksonville for the Taxslayer Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: NC State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Led by senior quarterback Ryan Finley, the Wolfpack offense scores 35.6 PPG while averaging 471.3 total YPG — those numbers rank 20th and 15th best in the nation. Over their last three games, this offense was clicking on all cylinders by scoring 48.0 PPG while averaging 526.7 total YPG. Finley will be without wide receiver Kelvin Harmon who is skipping this game to avoid injury prior to the NFL draft but he still has a host of other weapons including a 1000-yard receiver in Jakobi Meyers. He will be using this game to build his own NFL draft resume — and he should feast off an Aggies secondary that ranked 111th in the nation by allowing 262.7 passing YPG. Opposing quarterbacks completed 61% of their passes against the Texas A&M defense while throwing 25 touchdown passes to just 5 interceptions. But the Wolfpack defense will likely struggle to slow down the Aggies’ offense. In their five games on the road, NC State surrendered 30.0 PPG while allowing those opponents to average 439.2 total YPG. Their defense will be without their best player and top tackler in linebacker Germaine Pratt who is also bypassing this game for NFL prep. This is a defense that was torched by opposing quarterbacks as they ranked 120th in the nation by allowing 271.2 passing YPG. The Over is 11-4-1 in the Wolfpack’s last 16 games against non-conference opponents. NC State has also played 6 straight bowl games Over the Total — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field. The Wolfpack have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing as an underdog on a neutral field. Texas A&M has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Aggies have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing at least 42 points in their last game. Texas A&M has their own dynamic quarterback in Kellen Mond who threw 23 touchdown passes while leading an offense that scored 34.7 PPG (26th in the nation) and averaged 465.8 total YPG (19th in the FBS). The Aggies have played 4 of their last 5 bowl games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC.
FINAL TAKE: NC State and Texas A&M have run defense that rank 13th and 2nd in the nation respectively — so don’t be surprised if the running games are abandoned for more passing. More passing means more possessions which helps our Over play. This shapes up to be a wild high-scoring affair. 25* CFB Bailout Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (267) and the Texas A&M Aggies (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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