At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). THE SITUATION: Miami (3-0) remained undefeated this season after their 21-19 upset victory at home against Buffalo as a 4-point underdog last week. Cincinnati (1-2) comes off a 27-12 victory in New York against the Jets as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins upset the Bills last week despite being on the field for 19:20 minutes of that game. Miami’s defense was on the field for a whopping 90 plays run the south beach heat for that game — and now they are playing on a short week. After not rushing more than 34 times in any of their first three games this season, don’t be surprised if the Bengals commit to running the football more than they have all season to wear down this vulnerable Dolphins defense. This should be a heavy Joe Mixon game for Cincinnati as they attempt to burn the clock. This should lead to fewer offensive possessions for both teams. Miami only gained 212 total yards last week — and their 5.86 Yards-Per-Play average was far below their 6.6 YPP average this season. Look for Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo to deploy the same two-high safety scheme with six or more defensive backs that stymied Patrick Mahomes and the potent Kansas City offense in the second half of the AFC Championship Game against Tua Tagovailoa. Anarumo will likely dare head coach Mike McDaniel to settle for running the football or that Tagovailoa can beat his defense by executing on long drives. Even if Miami moves the ball, Anarumo will try to ensure that the explosive plays that the Dolphins have relied on to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will be mitigated — and that should help our Under play. As it is, Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They go on the road now where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. And in their last 12 games in September, the Dolphins have played 9 of these games Under the Total. Cincinnati has played 5 straight Unders after winning their last game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after a point-spread win. And while Joe Burrow has his best game of the season by completing 23 of 36 passes for 275 yards against the Jets last week, the Bengals have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Anarumo’s defense has played well well to start the year by allowing just 18.3 Points-Per-Game and 310.7 total Yards-Per-Game. But the offense is averaging only 4.8 Yards-Per-Play with the problems continuing with their rebuilt offensive line. They have played 6 straight Unders in September.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has played 6 straight Unders against AFC rivals — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games for Thursday Night Football. Miami has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against AFC rivals — and the Under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games for Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (921) and the Boston Red Sox (922) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (80-74) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-9 loss on the road against the Red Sox in the second game of this series. Boston (73-81) snapped their six-game losing streak with last night’s win.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have allowed at least six runs in four straight games — and they have scored at least six runs in four of their last five contests. The first two games of this series have both seen 22 combined runs after Baltimore won Game One by a 14-8 score. The Orioles have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least seven runs in their last two games — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in two straight games. And in their last 7 games after playing two straight games where at least 15 combined runs were scored, they have then played 6 of those games Over the Total. They have played 20 of their last 31 road games Over the Total against division opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Kremer gets the ball tonight with an 8-5 record with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 20 games (19 starts). The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.42 and 4.28 moving forward. And while the right-hander has a 2.67 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237  when pitching at home, those numbers rise to a 3.47 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in 10 starts on the road. Baltimore has played 3 of their last 4 road games Over the Total with Kremer pitching with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Boston has played 5 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games at home Over the Total after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. They have played 4 straight games at home Over the Total — and they have played 25 of their last 36 home games Over the Total in September. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Hill who has a 7-7 record with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 24 starts. The veteran lefty seems to be wearing down as the season closes since he has allowed four or five runs in four of his last five starts. In his last five starts, he has a 5.96 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .305. He has been less effective at home where he has been saddled with a 5.87 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .293 in 10 starts as opposed to his 3.80 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .240 opponent’s batting average in his 14 starts on the road. Boston has played 11 of their last 17 games at home Over the Total with Hill priced as a -110 or higher favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Manager Brandon Hyde is going with a right-handed dominant starting lineup tonight against Hill — and Baltimore is scoring 7.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .306 batting average, a .354 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .900. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (921) and the Boston Red Sox (922) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (489) and the New York Giants (490). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-1) looks to build off their 20-17 upset victory against Cincinnati as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-0) pulled off their second-straight upset win in a 19-16 victory at home against Carolina as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants only managed to gain 265 yards last week against the Panthers despite being on offense for 35:57 minutes of that game. The Giants averaged a meager 3.96 Yards-Per-Play last week. But they were able to win the game because of their defense which held Carolina to only 275 total yards. New York has played twenty-two of their last thirty games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a close win at home where they won by no more than a field goal. They stay at home where the Under is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games including 8 straight Unders. Dallas has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They go on the road for the first time this season where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. The Cowboys are dealing with many injuries on offense -- headlined by quarterback Dan Prescott being out with his right thumb injury. The receiving corps is not at full strength with Michael Gallup reported to not be ready to play tonight and tight end Dalton Schultz likely out this week with a knee. The offensive line is banged up as well. This group is a far cry from the unit that led the NFL by scoring 31.2 Points-Per-Game last season.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against fellow NFC East opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total for Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (489) and the New York Giants (490). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (487) and the Denver Broncos (488). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-1) comes off a 27-7 win against Seattle as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (1-1) got their first win of the season with their 16-9 victory at home against Houston as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Seahawks to just 216 yards in their victory last week. The Niners once again have one of the best defenses in the NFL. After ranking third in the league by allowing only 310.0 total Yards-Per-Game last season, they are giving up just 210.0 total YPG this year along with only 13.0 Points-Per-Game.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston College Eagles (345) and the Florida State Seminoles (346). THE SITUATION: Boston College (1-2) snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday with a 38-17 victory against Maine as a 31.5-point favorite. Florida State (3-0) remained unbeaten this season with a 35-31 victory against Louisville as a 2.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles got their first win of the season against an overmatched northeast FCS program — but this is a team that is going to struggle to move the football behind a retooled offensive line that replaced all five starters from last season. Boston College is scoring only 23.0 Points-Per-Game and generating 299.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are averaging just 4.7 Yards-Per-Play. The Eagles to struggling to run the football as they are averaging just 1.7 Yards-Per-Carry and they rank 125th in Rushing Success Rate. Against their two FBS opponents, Rutgers and Virginia Tech, BC has rushed for just 33 yards on 54 combined carries (which does include sacks). Head coach Jeff Hafley is relying on senior quarterback Phil Jurkovec — but he only completed 55% of his passes and averaged 6 yards per pass attempt against the Scarlet Knights and Hokies. He did complete 25 of 37 passes for 320 yards against Maine last week — but the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Boston College has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is 39-18-2 in their last 59 games after not allowing more than 20 points. The Eagles' defense has been solid — they are allowing just 22.0 PPG and 328.0 total YPG. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in September — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against ACC opponents. The Under is also 50-22-2 in their last 74 games on the road. Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis rolled his ankle last week in the game against the Cardinals and had to leave the game. After being questionable all week, the reports this afternoon is that Travis will take the field tonight — but his effectiveness will remain a question particularly because he does rely on his legs to get yardage. The Seminoles gained 455 total yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while they gave up 495 yards to Malik Cunningham and the Cardinals’ offense, they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 or more yards in their last contest. Florida State is improved on defense with eight starters back from last year from a group that did not allow more than 30 points in their final eight games last year. They have held their three opponents to 20.3 PPG and 335.7 YPG. The Seminoles rank 22nd in the nation by running the football in 61% of their plays on offense — and they will likely eclipse that mark given Travis’ gimpy ankle. Florida State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in September.

FINAL TAKE: The Seminoles pulled off a 26-23 upset on the road against the Eagles as a 3-point favorite on November 20th with the Total set at 55.5 — these two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston College Eagles (345) and the Florida State Seminoles (346). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (965) and the Baltimore Orioles (966) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Dean Kremer. THE SITUATION: Houston (99-52) had their four-game winning streak snapped after a 2-0 loss against the Orioles in the opening game of this four-game series. Baltimore (78-71) has won two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have only allowed six combined runs in their last five games -- and they have not allowed more than two runs in any of those games. They have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in five straight games. The Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and the Under is 37-14-5 in their last 56 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. The Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games on the road — and they have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total when priced as a favorite up to -150. Additionally, the Under is 13-5-3 in their last 21 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and the Under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Urquidy who has a 13-7 record with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 27 starts. The right-hander sports a 3.75 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in his ten starts after the All-Star Break. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.87 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 14 starts as opposed to his 4.04 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP at home. The Astros have played 10 of their last 15 road games with Urquidy pitching as a road favorite priced up to -150. He faces an Orioles team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .212 batting average, a .294 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .610. The Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after a victory. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. They counter with Kremer who has a 7-5 record with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 19 games (18 starts). He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.17 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .254 as compared to his 3.47 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in ten starts on the road. He also thrives at night where he has a 2.65 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 12 games (11 starts). The Orioles have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total with Kremer their starting pitcher in a night game. The Under is 12-2-3 in the Astros’ last 17 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Houston is scoring only 4.3 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers. They rank 23rd and 20th in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created when playing on the road against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 10* MLB Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (965) and the Baltimore Orioles (966) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Dean Kremer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-1) looks to rebound from a 17-14 loss to New England as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Cleveland (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 31-30 upset loss at home to the New York Jets as a 6.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The low total in this game is daring bettors to take the Over — but let’s not take the sugar. The Steelers managed only 243 total yards last week in the narrow loss to the Patriots — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 straight Unders after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Pittsburgh offense is held back by an offensive line that is still a work in progress — and they are not getting challenging defenses with their vertical passing game under quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The Steelers are scoring only 18.5 Points-Per-Game — and seven of those points came from a pick-six in their opening week upset win at Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has only managed two offensive touchdowns from the 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game they are averaging. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after a narrow loss by three points or less. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road where the Under is a decisive 44-18-1 in their last 63 games. Additionally, the Steelers have played 6 straight Unders in the first month of the season — and they have played 4 straight Unders against fellow AFC North opponents. Cleveland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 26 of their last 34 games at home Under the Total after losing their last game. And while their first two games of the season have finished Over the Total, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Browns are allowing 27.5 PPG despite holding both opponents to 331.5 total YPG. Cleveland still has an outstanding defense that ranked 5th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 311.5 total YPG. JaDeveon Clowney will miss this game due to injury but Myles Garrett is expected to play after missing practice on Thursday. Cleveland has held their first two opponents to 54 and 93 rushing yards — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. And while the Browns generated 405 yards against the Jets last week, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Cleveland returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total for Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 encounters Under the Total when playing in Cleveland. It may be scary to play the Under with the number so low — but that is the point. Both teams will likely struggle to score touchdowns in the Red Zone. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (291) and the Philadelphia Eagles (292). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-0) comes off a 23-7 victory at home against Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) defeated the Lions in Detroit last Sunday by a 38-35 score as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kirk Cousins completed 23 of 32 passes for 277 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the victory against the Packers last week. He seems to be more comfortable under new head coach Kevin O’Connell who was his quarterback coach in Washington in 2017.

At 7:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (289) and the Buffalo Bills (290). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 21-20 upset loss to the New York Giants as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (1-0) comes off a 31-10 victory on the road in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1-point favorite in the season-opener on September 8th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Ryan Tannehill played well in the losing effort last week — he completed 20 of 33 passes for 266 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Over is 11-4-1 in the Titans' last 16 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss at home. Tennessee did give up 238 yards on the ground to the Giants — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. And while that game finished Under the 44-point Total, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last contest. They go on the road where they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Titans have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road when the Total is set in the 42.5 to 49-point range. Buffalo gained 413 total yards last week in their win against the Rams — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they held the Super Bowl champions to just 243 yards last week, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 250 yards in their last game. That game finished Under the 51.5-point Total — but the Bills have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing an under in their last game. Buffalo thrived in frustrating Matthew Stafford with a constant pass rush that rotated in eight players on their defensive line. But defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier will not have that luxury tonight with defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Tim Settle declared out for tonight’s game, leaving the team with just Daquan Jones and Jordan Phillips as healthy defensive tackles. The Over is 19-9-1 in the Bills’ last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, Buffalo has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played a barn-burner last season in which Tennessee pulled off a 34-31 upset win at home as a 6-point underdog. The Titans have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing on Monday Night Football. Tennessee has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing on turf — and Buffalo has played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total when playing on turf. With Tennessee desperate to not fall to 0-2, expect another barn-burner. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (289) and the Buffalo Bills (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (287) and the Green Bay Packers (288). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-0) won their opener with a 19-10 upset win against San Francisco as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay looks to rebound from their 23-7 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers should be more effective on offense this week after Aaron Rodgers was ineffective in his first game playing without his security blanket Davante Adams. But Rodgers is clearly not comfortable with the two rookies the team drafted, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and he does not have the same confidence in veterans like Sammie Watkins or Randall Cobb as he did with Adams. Unlike Patrick Mahomes who had his group of wide receivers spend time with him in Fort Worth, Texas to bond and develop some passing chemistry with him, Rodgers did whatever he does in the offseason that is away from football. His tough-love approach to freeze out Watson after he dropped a likely touchdown pass from a bomb from Rodgers in his first target in the game was not the best way to nurture his confidence. The passing game is going to be a work in progress for the Packers for a while. Green Bay’s formula for success will be to run the football behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon — and for Rodgers to continue their touches in the passing game. Expect longer possessions from them tonight as they burn the clock. But the Packers need to play better on defense after they allowed the Vikings to generate 6.5 Yards-Per-Play and 395 total yards against them. The Green Bay defense should be a strength after they drafted two of the hot shots from the Georgia defense in the first round of the NFL draft, defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt and linebacker Quan Walker, to help a group that ranked ninth in the league by allowing 328.2 Yards-Per-Game. The Packers have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Kirk Cousins passed for 269 yards against them — just under 50 passing YPG above their season average last year. But Green Bay has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Chicago only gained 204 yards last week in their upset win against the 49ers. That mark along with their 3.8 Yards-Per-Play average was the lowest offensive numbers in the league last week. The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset win as an underdog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The second-year quarterback completed 8 of 17 passes for 121 yards dealing with the rainstorm conditions in the south of Chicago during that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. He lacks reliable weapons in the passing game outside of wide receiver Darnell Mooney. But expect more solid defensive efforts from this team moving forward under a defensive head coach in Matt Eberflus who inherited a defense that ranked sixth in the NFL by allowing 316.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The Bears have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Chicago has played 37 of their last 58 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 12th when Green Bay won by a 45-30 score at Lambeau Field in a game that Fields was under center for the Bears. Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry can use that game tape to slow down Fields this time around. The Packers did respond to their 38-3 loss to New Orleans in the opener last year by returning home to Lambeau where they crushed Detroit by a 35-17 score — but he had Adams in that game who caught eight of his nine targets for 121 receiving yards. Rodgers is going to continue to eye-roll at his wide receivers failing him tonight because he wants the world to know that it is not his fault (it never is) — so expect more offensive drives that settle for field goals rather than five touchdowns. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (287) and the Green Bay Packers (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-0) began the regular season with a 24-19 victory against Las Vegas as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (1-0) opened the season with a 44-21 win at Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Raiders to just 320 yards of total offense. Linebacker Khalil Mack looked rejuvenated in a Chargers uniform after being signed in the offseason from Chicago. He joined linebacker Joey Bosa to combine for 16 hits on Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr. I am expecting a significant bump in the play of this Los Angeles defense in the second season under head coach Brandon Staley. The team hopes to have free agent cornerback J.C. Jackson take the field tonight after he missed Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. The former New England star is one of the best cover corners in the league. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in September. The LA offense was not dynamic last week against the Raiders as they only gained 355 total yards — down more than 35 yards from their season average last year. They did control time of possession for 32:32 minutes in that game which will probably be their formula tonight. Wide receiver Keenan Allen has been declared out with a hamstring injury which will make Mike Williams the primary option and elevate Joshua Palmer into the starting lineup. Losing Allen is significant since Williams had seven drops last year and Palmer lacks down-the-field speed. Allen is the glue to this group. With the addition of Sony Michel who was cut by Miami, look for the Chargers to run the ball more with a rotation of Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller, and Michel. I definitely expect Staley to have his defense play a two-high safety zone that frustrated Patrick Mahomes last season. Inexplicably the Cardinals opted to play a single high safety and bring the blitz early and often against Mahomes last week. I like Arizona defensive coordinator Vance Joseph — but I would sure like to hear his rationale for bypassing the two high safeties and opting to blitz on 53% of the Chiefs’ dropbacks. Mahomes punishes the blitz. Opposing defenses found success against him by playing that two-high safety zone defense that takes away the deep ball. Now I do believe Mahomes put himself in a much better position than say, Aaron Rodgers, to be patient and take what the defense will give him this season in the first year without Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs generated 33 first downs and controlled the clock for 34:42 minutes in their easy win against the Cardinals. Mahomes had a fantastic statistical afternoon — going 30 of 39 for 360 yards with five touchdown passes — but the drives were not as quick-strike without Hill. And, hey, what do ya know? The defense benefited from the long drives as they held Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense to just 282 total yards. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 24 first downs while having the offense on the field for at least 34 minutes in their last previous game. The Chiefs ranked 8th in the NFL last year by allowing 21.4 Points-Per-Game — and they performed much better when they acquired Melvin Ingram midseason which allowed them to move Chris Jones back to defensive tackle. While Ingram is now gone, they drafted Purdue’s disruptive defensive tackle George Karlaftis in the first round to replace him and keep Jones at his preferred inside position. Additionally, Kansas City kicker (and fantasy gem) Harrison Butker is out for this game — they activated Matt Ammendola from the practice squad to kick field goals and extra points (which does not hurt our case for the Under).

FINAL TAKE: Both games between these two teams had at least 54 combined points scored — so I understand the arguments for the Over. But Staley is leaning-in to light boxes to defend against the pass which begs opposing offenses to run the ball. The Chargers allowed opponents to average 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry against their light boxes last year. I expect Kansas City to have success on offense — but with long drives and less explosiveness. It does not take much in the game script to get off the pace to finish Over 54 points. And then when you add the short week for both teams and my expectation that Staley calms down on his zeal to go for it on every fourth down, look for a lower-scoring game than expected. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (927) and the Washington Nationals (928) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Wells and Patrick Corbin. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (74-67) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 4-3 victory against the Nationals last night. Washington (49-93) has lost four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a victory in their last game. Baltimore has not scored more than four runs in five straight games — and not only have they played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in three straight games but they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. They stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 straight Unders on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Interleague play — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games against opponents with a winning percentage no better than 40%. Wells gets the ball with a 7-6 record with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 21 starts. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.76 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in 11 starts as compared to his 4.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 at home. He faces a Nationals team that has lost 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington lost their previous game on Sunday in Philadelphia by a 7-5 score — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row by two runs or less. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in interleague play. They counter with Corbin who has a 6-18 record with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP in 28 starts. No, endorsing Corbin with an Under play is not my “I’m being held hostage” code — the underlying metrics are better than expected and he has pitched much better as of late. Avoiding this left-hander on the road is the most important thing — those numbers explode to a 7.83 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .363 in 14 starts on the road. The deeper sabermetrics have been screaming for regression for most of the year as his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.32 and 4.17 moving forward. The Regression Gods may have already made their presence felt as Corbin has a 3.24 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in his last four starts. Washington has played 7 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore is scoring only 3.5 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .217 batting average, a .280 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .610 during that span. The Orioles have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (927) and the Washington Nationals (928) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Wells and Patrick Corbin. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (983) and the Seattle Mariners (984) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Logan Gilbert. THE SITUATION: San Diego (77-64) has lost two games in a row after their 11-2 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday. Seattle (984) has won two games in a row after their 8-7 win against Atlanta on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an off day. San Diego goes back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs — and they have played 6 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Padres have played 5 straight Overs with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. And in their last 67 games in Interleague play, the Over is 43-20-4. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 33 games Over the Total in September including seven of their eight games this month. Darvish gets the start tonight with his 13-7 record along with a 3.31 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 26 starts. But while the right-hander has a 2.45 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .177 in 12 starts at home, those numbers rise to a 4.09 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in 14 starts on the road. San Diego has played 4 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with Darvish pitching as a money-line underdog priced from up to +150. Seattle has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing a game where 15 or more combined runs were scored. The Over is also 6-2-2 in their last 10 games after an off day. The Over is also 12-3-1 in the Mariners last 16 games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gilbert who has a 12-5 record along with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 28 starts. The right-hander has a 2.95 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .228 in 16 starts on the road — but in his 12 starts at home, those numbers rise to a 3.60 ERA and a .269 opponent’s batting average. Gilbert has not allowed an earned run in two straight starts — but Seattle has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with Gilbert on the mound following two straight starts where he did not allow more than two earned runs.

FINAL TAKE: The last times these two teams played was on July 4th and 5th when Seattle upset San Diego at Petco Park in both games. The Padres have played 26 of their last 37 games Over the Total when they are playing with double revenge from two upset losses at home. 10* MLB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (983) and the Seattle Mariners (984) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Logan Gilbert. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Seattle Seahawks (482). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-0) begins their Russell Wilson era after finishing 7-10 last year. Seattle (0-0) begins the post-Russell Wilson era coming off a 7-10 season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Many pundits consider the Broncos as a Super Bowl favorite after their heavy investment in Wilson as their franchise quarterback. Yet this is a flawed football team that has endured five-straight losing seasons. There are depth concerns at wide receiver after Tim Patrick suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. Wilson is getting a downgrade at wide receiver after enjoying the talents of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Jerry Jeudy did not have a touchdown pass last year and Courtland Sutton has failed to seize the mantle as a number one receiver for this team. If Wilson has lost a step with his mobility and has to rely more on his dropback skills, he may not be quite as good as he was in the past. His size prohibits him from making certain throws on the field. That is not a death knell — Drew Brees was quite effective even in the latter years of his career. But Wilson does not have Brees’ accuracy. Wilson tends to not see open receivers and can be too “all-or-nothing.” Maybe that changes with a better offensive line — but he is adjusting to a new system. Yes, Wilson had input in the offense to have it tailored to his expectations — but that was exactly what we heard last year when Carroll hired Shane Waldron as his offensive coordinator from the Los Angeles Rams (Sean McVay! Sean McVay!). As it is, Denver has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as a road favorite. The Under is also 37-17-1 in the Broncos’ last 55 games when favored. And in their last 4 games in September, Denver has played all four games Under the Total.  Seattle is definitely experiencing a downgrade at quarterback in moving to Geno Smith. What Smith does offer is the elimination of any pressure to force the passing game to make the quarterback happy as has been the case in the past. Seattle is going to run the football and attempt to control time of possession — the formula that helped Denver produce their good defensive numbers in the past. While the offense averaged only 56.1 plays per game, the defense was on the field for 70.6 plays per game. That -14.5 net difference was the 4th worst in the NFL since 1950. It is that dynamic that Carroll gets to address with Wilson gone. He wants to play lower-scoring games that remain close — and he is confident he can outcoach his opponents in the fourth quarter. Seattle has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football — and Denver has played 4 straight Unders on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Seattle Seahawks (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) and the Dallas Cowboys (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-0) comes off a 13-4 season after losing at home to the Los Angeles Rams by a 30-27 score in the NFC divisional round of the playoffs. Dallas (0-0) lost in the NFC wildcard round in a 23-17 loss at home to San Francisco.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Tampa Bay has significant offensive line issues after former Pro Bowler Ali Marpet retired in the offseason and then center Ryan Jensen got injured during the preseason. But the Buccaneers still have All-Pro Tristan Wirfs at right tackle — and they signed Shaq Mason from New England to replace Market at guard in the offseason. Tampa Bay’s starting offensive line should still be fine — the bigger problem is the lack of any margin for error when it comes to injury since the depth has been depleted. It certainly helps to have Tom Brady under center who not only is one of the best ever with his footwork in his pocket but also has the veteran savvy to manage a pass rush. Brady missed much of the preseason for his mysterious mid-camp “sabbatical” — but the reports out of camp were that he was quite good in his abbreviated time with the team. He will not have wide receiver Chris Godwin tonight — but he still has a loaded wide receiver room that added Julio Jones and Russell Gage in the offseason along with tight end Kyle Rudolph to complement Mike Evans and Scottie Miller. The Buccaneers have played 5 of their last 6 opening games to a new season Over the Total. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in September. While I am concerned about the injuries on their offensive line, this is still going to be a team that generates at least 25 Points-Per-Game. They led the NFL last year with a 31.2 PPG scoring average — so if there is some drop-off, this team should still be reliable with Overs. I am expecting the Regression Gods to visit this team when it comes to the play of their defense in the second year under defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. They led the NFL with 34 takeaways last year. The Cowboys have played 13 of their last 19 games at home Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 31-29 barnburner in the opening week last season in Tampa Bay. I expect a similar level of scoring in this rematch. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) and the Dallas Cowboys (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (0-0) comes off an 11-6 season where they lost on the road at Kansas City by a 42-36 score in the AFC Divisional round. Los Angeles (0-0) are the reigning Super Bowl Champions after beating Cincinnati in the Super Bowl by a 23-20 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL:  The Bills are favorites in the betting market to win the Super Bowl this season with the expectation being that they will have a chip on their shoulder after their heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs when their defense allowed a game-tying field goal with just 13 seconds left in regulation. After Kansas City scored a game-tying field goal to force overtime, they won the coin flip and Patrick Mahomes did not let Josh Allen get the ball again by leading the Chiefs on a touchdown drive that ended the game — and prompted a change in the NFL overtime rules (by kicking the can on the inevitable “but why can’t the other team get one more chance” dilemma when removing the clock, even if for good reasons). Allen and the Bills’ offense should be loaded for bear this season. They were 3rd in the NFL last year by scoring 28.4 Points-Per-Game — and they were 5th by generating 408.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Allen was transcendent in the playoffs last year with nine touchdown passes and a Passer Rating of 149.0. The interesting thing about him is that he tended to save his best games for the national spotlight. According to the metrics at Football Outsiders, while he had a DVOA of 27.8% for the season overall, that mark rose to a 43.5% clip when playing in prime-time games on national television. Nine starters return on offense — and while offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is the head coach for the New York Giants, his quarterback coach and now offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has been considered one of the brightest young offensive minds in the game. He should have more reliable weapons to compliment Stefon Diggs in the passing game this season. Gabriel Davis had a breakout game against the Chiefs in the playoffs with four touchdown catches. Buffalo added slot receiver, Jamison Crowder, from the New York Jets in the offseason. The Bills have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road including four of their last five games away from home — and they have played 7 straight Overs on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles was tied for 7th in the NFL by scoring 27.1 PPG last year — and they scored 26.8 PPG in their four playoff games. Reports from the Rams camp were that they were one of the most impressive teams in the preseason practice — and the injured right elbow that has been nagging quarterback Matthew Stafford is not an issue (at least for this week). Stafford should be even better the season year in head coach Sean McVay’s system — and Cam Akers should be more effective at running back after a disappointing postseason where he averaged just 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry after his quicker-than-expected return from the Achilles injury that kept him out for the regular season. The team is without Robert Woods and Odell Beckham from the wide receiver group but they did add Allen Robinson from Chicago in the offseason. The defense still has Aaron Donald — but this unit may take a step back after losing Von Miller and Sebastian Joseph-Day from the front seven. The Rams ranked just 17th in the league last year by allowing 344.9 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight Overs in September.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills led the NFL in scoring defense and total defense — but those numbers were propped up by a fairly easy strength of schedule against some of the weakest offensive units in the league. Tennessee scored 34 points against them, Indianapolis scored 41 points, and Tampa Bay put up 33 points before the playoff game with Kansas City who scored at will against them in the second half. Six games against the other three AFC East teams along with games against the NFC South (Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina), along with Jacksonville, Houston, Washington, and Pittsburgh is an ideal recipe for inflated defensive numbers. I think both teams will suspect that 30 points will be needed to win and make their in-game decisions accordingly — making the Over a self-fulfilling prophecy. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: Arizona (65-69) has won nine of their last 11 games after their 5-0 victory against the Padres last night. San Diego (74-62) has lost three games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have not allowed more than one run in four of their last five games. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after shutting out their opponent in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. In their last 13 games on the road, they have played nine of these games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 7 or less. Arizona has played 8 straight Unders against NL West opponents. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Kelly takes the mound with a 12-5 record with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 27 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.74 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in 12 starts as compared to his 2.92 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and a .240 batting average at home. In his last eight starts, Kelly has a 1.99 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .195. The Diamondbacks have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with Kelly pitching as a money-line underdog priced from +125 to +175. He faces a slumping Padres lineup that is scoring only. 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .201 batting average, .291 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .618 during that span. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego lost their game on Sunday night to the Dodgers by a 9-4 score — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row by four or more runs. They have played 5 games in a row Under the Total at home at Petco Park. They counter with Musgrove who has a 9-6 record with a 3.01 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 24 starts. The right-hander has thrived at home where he enjoys a 2.75 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.24 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and a .233 opponent's batting average on the road. San Diego has played 5 of their 8 games Under the Total this season with Musgrove on the mound with the Total set at 7 or fewer.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in San Diego. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (913) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Mike Clevinger and Caleb Ferguson. THE SITUATION: San Diego (74-60) had their four-game winning streak snapped yesterday in a 12-1 loss to the Dodgers. Los Angeles (91-41) ended their three-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres managed only two base hits last night — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games on the road Over the Total after playing a game where they did not get more than four hits. And while San Diego has won six of their last eight games, they have then played 11 of their last 12 games on the road Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Furthermore, the Padres have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. San Diego has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams from the NL West. They give the ball to Clevinger who has a 5-5 record with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 16 games (15 starts) this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.30 and 4.48 moving forward. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he enjoys a 2.97 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .213 — but in his 11 games (ten starts) on the road, those numbers rise to a 3.98 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228. The Padres have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total with Clevinger on the hill. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Clevinger looking to stop a losing streak. The Dodgers have played 4 straight Over the Total at home against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 9-3-1 in Los Angeles’ last 13 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They have also played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total after losing three of their last four games. Additionally, the Dodgers have played 4 straight Overs at home — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Manager Dave Roberts will use Caleb Ferguson as his opener tonight before turning to Ryan Pepiot as the bulk pitcher. Ferguson has a 1-0 record with a 1.85 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in 24 1/3 innings — but this will be his first start of the season. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.71 and 3.85 moving forward. Pepiot has a 2-0 record with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in seven starts. He has an ominous 5.00 SIERA and 5.42 xFIP. His ERA rises to 4.66 in his three starts at home. And in his three starts last month, the right-hander had a 5.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .351. The Padres have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when playing at Dodger Stadium. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (913) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Mike Clevinger and Caleb Ferguson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (961) and the Cleveland Guardians (962) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Bradish and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (68-61) has won four of their last six games with their 4-0 victory on the road against the Guardians. Cleveland (68-60) has lost four of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 4 straight Unders after winning their last game. Baltimore has now played seven straight Unders — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing five or more Unders in a row. They have played 7 straight Unders when on the road — and they have played 7 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Bradish gets the start with his 2-5 record along with a 5.63 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.00 and 3.95 moving forward. The Regression Gods may have already made their presence felt for Bradish as he enjoyed a 3.14 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in five starts in August. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 4.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in seven starts as compared to his 6.29 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .330 at home. He faces a slumping Guardians team that is scoring just 2.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .226 batting average, .266 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .594 during that span. Cleveland has played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 20-8-2 in their last 30 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Guardians have been shut out twice in their last three games. They have not allowed more than four runs in 12 straight contests — and they have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight games. Cleveland has played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 17-4-1 in their last 22 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Bieber who has an 8-7 record with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 24 starts. The right-hander comes off a great August where had a 1.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and a .215 opponent’s batting average in five starts. He has been a bit more effective at home where he enjoys a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in nine starts as compared to his 1.12 WHIP on the road. The Guardians have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Bieber pitching at home priced as a money-line favorite priced from -150 to -200

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (961) and the St. Louis Cardinals (962) listing both starting pitchers Jake Odorizzi and Adam Wainwright. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (79-49) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with a 6-5 loss on the road against the Cardinals yesterday. St. Louis (73-54) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 7-3-1 in the Braves' last 11 games after a win — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a victory by two runs or less. They have also played 5 straight Overs after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is 12-3-2 in their last 17 road games against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Odorizzi gets the start for Atlanta with a 5-5 record along with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 16 starts between the Braves and Houston this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.54 and 4.61 moving forward. He faces a Cardinals team that is hitting .277 in their last seven games with a .338 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .812 during that span. St. Louis has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cardinals have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range, they have played 5 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Wainwright who has a 9-9 record along with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 25 starts. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.09 and 3.91 moving forward. St. Louis has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total with Wainwright on the mound. Atlanta is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .271 batting average, a .339 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .766. The Over is 9-4-4 in the Braves last 17 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 8-2-4 in their last 14 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by one run on the road. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (961) and the St. Louis Cardinals (962) listing both starting pitchers Jake Odorizzi and Adam Wainwright. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (301) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (302). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (0-0) returns 14 starters from last year’s team that finished 5-7. FAU (0-0) has 14 starters back as well from their team that finished 5-7 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers need to improve a defensive unit that allowed 34.0 PPG and that ranked 120th in the FBS by giving up 465.0 total YPG — but head coach Will Nealy has reasons for optimism in his fourth year with the program. He brought a wily veteran with plenty of experience in the NFL and the FBS level in Greg Brown to coordinate his defense this season. Brown served as the defensive coordinator for Arizona in 2018 -- and he has over a decade of experience as a defensive coach in the NFL. He has experienced players that he should be able to coach up as eight seniors who played at least 250 snaps last year returned. Injuries did not help Charlotte’s cause last year with the team losing 46 total games to injuries from their starters. Getting Davondre “Tank” Robinson back at strong safety after the former East Carolina transfer suffered a season-ending biceps injury in Week One will help. Healy also brought in a four-year player in defensive end Amir Siddiq from Central Michigan to add a pass rush threat to a line that has two starts returning. He joins defensive end Markees Watts to give the team an intriguing pass rush combination who combined for ten sacks last year. The 49errs offense returns Chris Reynolds at quarterback for his sixth year with the program and his fifth as a starter. At this point, we know what we are going to get with the fifth-year starter (with the COVID season where no player lost eligibility). He completed 215 of 337 yards for 2648 yards — but the offense only scored 27.2 PPG which ranked 79th in the nation. Charlotte has palled 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. And in their last 7 games, as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points, they have played 5 of those games Under the Total. FAU returns eight starters from their offense that only scored 25.4 PPG last year, ranking 84th in the FBS. Former Miami (FL) quarterback N’Kosi Perry returns under center after he completed only 60.7% of his passes for 2771 yards. Perry has demonstrated flashes of brilliance in his career — but his inconsistency is why he lost the starting job with the Hurricanes and eventually transferred to a Group of Five program. He plays behind an offensive line that allowed 35 sacks last year. The Owls' defense gave up 409.2 total YPG last year (90th in the FBS) but they only gave up 25.8 PPG which was tied for 58th in the nation. Third-year head coach Willie Taggart retooled his defense by bringing in Todd Orlando as the new defensive coordinator after previous stints with USC, Texas, and the University of Houston. The veteran has six returning starters plus a slew of transfers led by sophomore linebacker Jamie Pettway from Missouri. FAU held their first eight opponents to only 21.5 PPG last year — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Owls have also played 18 of their last 26 games at home Under the Total with the Total in the 56.5-63 point range — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. FAU dominated Charlotte last year by a 38-9 score as a 6.5-point favorite on the road with that Total set at 58. Healy has probably reminded himself every day in the offseason that his team has a 6-3 record in the last two seasons if they do not allow more than 35 points — but they are 1-8 in their last nine games when their opponent scores more than 35 points. The 49ers need to control the clock to help Reynolds stay within striking distance. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (301) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (119) and the Cincinnati Bengals (120). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-1) enters their final preseason game coming off a 24-20 loss to Houston as a 2.5-point underdog last Friday. Cincinnati (0-2) remained winless this preseason after a 25-22 loss in New York against the Giants as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams had joint practices for two days earlier in the week — so the more sophisticated offensive plays were used for those sessions. And with the second joint practice ending earlier after the ugly brawl between both these teams, I expect the blandest of vanilla schemes on offense for this game with both head coaches not wanting to stir the pot at all and get out of this exhibition game unharmed and without injuries. These two head coaches, Sean McVay and Zac Taylor are friends — they have probably discussed how they are going to try to de-emphasize the tensions that seemed to carry over from the Super Bowl (and Aaron Donald did attempt to use a Bengals’ helmet as a weapon in that brawl this week). Additionally, neither head coach had planned to use their starters in this final contest. Don’t look for Rams backup quarterback Jon Wolford to do much when playing in the first quarter since he is dealing with a hangnail on his right hand that has impacted his throwing. Bryce Perkins will get the majority of the snaps tonight. While he has looked pretty good in the preseason, the former Virginia quarterback has not thrown a pass in the regular season. McVay’s teams have played 9 of their 13 preseason games Under the Total during his tenure. Cincinnati will once again use three quarterbacks that could only lead their offense to 271 combined yards last week. Brandon Allen has completed only 56.2% of his passes in the NFL regular season in his fourteen appearances. Jake Browning did not throw a pass in his rookie season last year. Drew Plitt is a rookie undrafted free agent who played at Ball State.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have averaged only 305.5 total YPG in their first two preseason games. The Rams have been even worse by averaging 253.5 YPG — but their defense has held their two preseason opponents to only 293.0 total YPG. 10* NFLx Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (119) and the Cincinnati Bengals (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (115) and the Las Vegas Raiders (116). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) comes off a 20-10 victory against Carolina as a 6-point favorite in their second preseason game last Friday. Las Vegas (3-0) remained unbeaten in their three preseason games after a 15-13 upset victory at Miami as a 1.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots come off a game where they scored a defensive touchdown by recovering a fumble in the fourth quarter — and they allowed the Panthers to score on a 50-yard interception touchdown in the third quarter. We lost our Under play on Monday after the Jets scored a defensive touchdown early in the fourth quarter — but I do not expect this minor rash of defensive touchdowns to continue. The bigger takeaway from New England’s second preseason game is that their defense did not allow an offensive touchdown while holding the Panthers to just 192 total yards. The Patriots have an outstanding defense that finished 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 17.8 Points-Per-Game — and this is a unit with depth. They enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin in the contest — and they have played 8 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after playing a preseason game where they had a +2 net turnover margin and they have played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total after generating a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Now after playing their first two preseason games at home in Gillette Stadium, they go on the road for their lone road trip this month — and they have played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total after a two-game home stand in the preseason. The Patriots took part in joint practices at the Raiders facilities here in Las Vegas (technically in Henderson, very close to the Hollywood Sports home offices, BTW). Head coach Bill Belichick has been ripped for not hiring an experienced offensive coordinator — instead, he is using longtime staff members and former (failed) head coaches, Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, to work with the offense while auditioning for the play-calling duties. This development is making it difficult for their regular season opponents to scout against them since there is not a book on Patricia or Judge when calling offensive plays. Do not expect Belichick to offer any clues in this preseason game — and any of the more sophisticated plays he wanted second-year quarterback Mac Jones to work on probably took place in the joint practices with the Raiders. Jones played only three series last week against Carolina — don’t look for him to take the field in this final preseason game. Expect rookie Bailey Zappe from Western Kentucky to get most — or all of the snaps — since there is no urgency for Belichick to get 14-year veteran Brian Hoyer some snaps. The Patriots will probably not use either of their top two running backs, Damien Harris or Rhamondre Stevenson after Harris left the final joint practice with the Raiders on Wednesday with a minor injury. Las Vegas only managed 289 total yards of offense despite being on the field for over 33 minutes in their preseason game against the Dolphins last week. Derek Carr has not taken the field in any of the first three preseason games for first-year head coach Josh McDaniels — and after two good joint practices against the Patriots’ first-string defense, it would be a big surprise if the starting quarterback would risk injury now. With the Raiders playing four preseason games this year with their involvement in the Hall of Fame Game, the traditional dress rehearsal game for McDaniels if he wanted to get Carr some live action would have been last week. Las Vegas then traded away their veteran quarterback Nick Mullens to Minnesota earlier in the week — so it will probably be just Jarrett Stidham and rookie Chase Garbers under center for this one. Stidham played for McDaniels the previous two seasons when he was the offensive coordinator in New England — so this game may be mostly under Garbers’ leadership, the rookie QB from California, to see what he can do. Look for plenty of running plays from the Raiders offense as well — they have run the ball in 97 of their 198 snaps in their three preseason games (yes, I track run/pass ratios for these exhibition games to help find an edge) for a 49% clip which should help our Under play since the clock should continue to run all night when they are on offense. Las Vegas has averaged just 303.3 total YPG in their three preseason games — but their defense has shined by holding their three opponents to 14.7 PPG and only 303.7 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Preseason coaching trends are of particular interest to me — but with all the new coaches, the wiped-out preseason in 2020 because of COVID, and the reduction of four preseason games to three starting last year, the sample sizes to discover actionable evidence has declined. But New England offers the deepest sample size of exhibition games to digest with Belichick in his 23rd year leading the team. The Patriots have played 16 of their last 24 road games in the preseason Under the Total when an underdog getting up to three points. 25* AFCx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (115) and the Las Vegas Raiders (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (971) and the Oakland A’s (972) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Cole Irvin. THE SITUATION: Miami (54-69) has won two games in a row after their 5-3 victory against the A’s in the second game of their series. Oakland (45-79) has lost four of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Before Tuesday night’s game, the Marlins had not scored more than four runs in 23 straight games — and they did not score more than three runs in 21 of those games. The Under is 21-8-2 in Miami’s last 31 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Marlins have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Luzardo who has a 3-5 record with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 10 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.32 and 3.15 moving forward. He comes off an impressive start in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Friday when he allowed only one run in 6 1/3 innings against the commanding MLB leader in runs scored. Miami has played 4 straight Unders this season when Luzardo is on the mound following up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. In his last four starts this month since coming back from a forearm injury that kept him on the shelf since May, Luzardo has a 2.76 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .188. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 2.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .128 in six starts as opposed to his 4.87 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and .253 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. Luzardo also sports a 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .154 in four starts. He faces an A’s team that has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Oakland has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. At home, the A’s are scoring only 2.8 Runs-Per-Game while posting a .205 batting average, .268 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .585. The Under is 28-13-1 in their last 42 games at home. They counter with Irvin who has a 6-11 record this season with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 22 starts. The left-hander has been much more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.12 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .199 in 12 starts as compared to his 4.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .270 on the road. Oakland has played 13 of their last 20 home games Under the Total with Irvin pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He pitches against a listless Marlins lineup that is hitting just .188 in their last seven games with a .261 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .607 during that span.

FINAL TAKE: Since June 1st, Miami ranks 28th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage on the road against left-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 29th in MLB since June 1st in weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. Oakland ranks 29th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage when playing at home against left-handed starting pitchers since June 1st — and they rank 27th in weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed starting pitchers since June 1st. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (971) and the Oakland A’s (972) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Cole Irvin. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (431) and the New York Jets (432). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-0) opened their preseason campaign with a 27-23 upset win at Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on August 12th. New York (1-0) also pulled off an upset in their first preseason game with a 24-21 win at Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on August 12th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets will be playing their third and fourth string quarterbacks in this game tonight. Zach Wilson injured his knee last week which will keep him out for at least the rest of the regular season. Veteran Joe Flacco has looked good in practice — but second-year head coach Robert Saleh will not risk him getting injured in an exhibition game since he may be needed to quarterback the team to start the season. That means that Mike White and Chris Streveler will get the snaps for the Jets tonight. White completed only 10 of his 20 passes last week for 98 yards White was solid in four games and three starts last year — but too often he was a Check-Down Charlie as he averaged just 4.1 yards in the air per completion. Streveler is a former Grey Cup champion for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers but he has played in only two games in the NFL in his career with Arizona. The Jets only gained 302 yards last week against the Eagles — but the defense played well by holding Philadelphia to just 313 total yards. After allowing the Eagles to score 31 points in the opening preseason game last season, Saleh’s teams in the preseason have held their last three opponents to 14 PPG. Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith will play Marcus Mariota in the first quarter tonight — but rookie Desmond Ridder will likely get the majority of the snaps tonight. The former Cincinnati Bearcat was up-and-down last week in completing just 10 of 22 passes for 103 yards. Second-year pro Feleipe Franks is likely to get some snaps under center in the fourth quarter. Mariota played last week — but the Falcons only gained 307 yards on 18 first downs.

FINAL TAKE: The Falcons scored only 30 points in their three preseason games last year — they are averaging 14.3 PPG in the four preseason games under Smith. The Jets have averaged 19.7 PPG in their last three games under Saleh. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (431) and the New York Jets (432). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (421) and the Minnesota Vikings (422). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-0) won their opening preseason game at home against Green Bay last Friday by a 28-21 score as a 2.5-point favorite. Minnesota (0-1) lost in Las Vegas to the Raiders as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams completed two days of joint practices on Wednesday and Thursday of this week — so the most sophisticated offensive plays they were willing to show each other took place then rather than in this game which the remaining 30 teams in the league can access. The respective offensive game plans are not just going to be vanilla — they are going to be generic brand vanilla. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan already proclaimed earlier in the preseason that he would not use his starters for this second preseason game. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk claimed the joint practices were a “waste of time” because he was barely used. He may miss even that excitement for tonight’s game. Trey Lance is not likely to play — and Shanahan will not risk Jimmy Garoppolo getting injured since that would ruin his trade value. So, expect some Nate Sudfeld under center and plenty of rookie quarterback Brock Purdy. The seventh-round pick out of Iowa State completed 3 of 6 passes for 36 yards against the Packers last week. The Niners are dealing with injuries at running back with Elijah Mitchell already out and now Trey Sermon dealing with a foot injury that he endured during the joint practices. The Niners’ offense will probably be plenty of rushing attempts for rookie Tyrion Davis-Price along with Jeff Wilson and JaMychal Hasty with the clock running constantly with Shanahan just wanting to escape the game without injuries. His teams have played all 5 of their preseason games Under the Total when playing on the road. Minnesota only managed to gain 298 yards last week in their loss to the Raiders — but they did hold Las Vegas to just 300 total yards. Rookie head coach Kevin O’Connell did not play the key offensive starters last week — and he has declared that he will sit quarterback Kirk Cousins, running back Dalvin Cook, and wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Backup Sean Mannion will probably get some snaps — but the starter will be second-year pro Kellen Mond who will probably play the majority of the game.

FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that could face each other in the NFC playoffs — frankly, I’m surprised that these coaches agreed to the joint practices earlier this week. O’Connell was the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams — so the Sean McVay offensive system is already well-known to Shanahan. These two teams probably played the greatest hits from the established Shanahan/McVay playbooks during the week — and the backups on offense will be asked to execute those plays once again against defensive players who have working against them for two days already. That is a great formula for the Under. 25* NFCx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (421) and the Minnesota Vikings (422). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (913) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Tyler Anderson. THE SITUATION: Miami (52-66) has lost five of their last seven games after their 10-3 loss to San Diego on Wednesday. Los Angeles (81-36) has lost two of their last three games after a 5-3 loss at Milwaukee on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have seen the Under go 12-3-1 in their last 16 games after a loss — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Miami goes back on the road where they have played 6 straight Unders — and the Under is 18-6-2 in their last 26 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Under is also 7-1-2 in the Marlins’ last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Luzardo who has a 3-5 record with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in nine starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.34 and 3.18 moving forward. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .115 in five starts as opposed to his 4.87 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and a .253 opponent’s batting average at home. Miami has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when Luzardo is on the mound following up a loss. He faces a slumping Dodgers lineup that is hitting only .216 in their last seven games with a .305 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .741 during that span. Los Angeles has played 4 straight Unders after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game. The Under is also 8-2-2 in their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Anderson who has a 13-2 record with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 22 games (20 starts). The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.30 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in ten games (nine starts) as compared to his more modest 3.29 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .242 on the road. The Dodgers have played 6 of their 9 home games this season Under the Total with Anderson their starting pitcher. Since the All-Star Break, Anderson has a 2.32 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .207 in five starts.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has been an Under Machine this month with 12 Unders in their 13 games. They are scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .219 batting average, .294 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .665 during that span. While we should not simply be Under Zombies for the Marlins right now (and there needs to be sufficient Under evidence for their opponent), the Under is 14-3-1 in Miami’s last 18 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Since June 1st, the Marlins are second-to-last in MLB on the road against left-handed starting pitchers in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created. 10* MLB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (913) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Tyler Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (975) and the Chicago White Sox (976) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease. THE SITUATION: Houston (75-42) had their four-game winning streak snapped last night in a 4-2 upset loss on the road to the White Sox in the first game of this series. Chicago (60-56) has won four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros has seen the Under go 46-22-6 in their last 74 games after a loss — and the Under is also 35-11-2 in their last 48 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They are only scoring 4.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .235 batting average, .301 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .709. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 16 of their last 20 road games Under the Total when favored on the road as a -125 to -175 money-line favorite. Houston has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Verlander gets the ball tonight with his 15-3 record along with a 1.85 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander has been even more effective on the road where he enjoys a 1.58 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .147 in 11 starts as compared to his 2.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and a .235 opponent’s batting average at home. The Astros have played 10 of their last 11 games on the road with Verlander on the mound — and they have played 7 straight Unders this season with Verlander pitching as a money-line favorite priced from -125 to -175. He faces a White Sox team that is scoring only 3.5 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. Chicago ranks 26th this season in weighted on-base percentage when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 23rd in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 9-2-1 in the White Sox’s last 12 games after a win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. Chicago has not allowed more than four runs in four straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in four straight games. The Under is 6-2-1 in the White Sox’s last 9 games at home — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. They counter with Cease who has a 12-5 record with a 1.96 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 23 starts this season. The right-hander has not allowed more than one earned run in 14 straight starts — and he owns a 0.66 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP during that span. He has been a bit more effective at home where he sports a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193 in 12 starts as compared to a 1.24 WHIP and .199 opponent’s batting average in 11 starts on the road. He faces an Astros team that has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Houston ranks 17th in MLB since June 1st in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created when playing on the road against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (975) and the Chicago White Sox (976) listing both starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (905) and the Washington Nationals (906) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Anibal Sanchez. THE SITUATION: San Diego (64-51) has won three straight games after their 10-5 victory against the Nationals in the opening game of this series. Washington (37-77) has lost two in a row and eight of their last nine contests.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres have scored a combined 23 runs in their last two games as their lineup becomes accustomed to the additions of Juan Soto and Josh Bell. They have played 4 straight Overs after winning their last game. The Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after scoring at least nine runs in their last game. The Over is also 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 5-1-2 in their last 8 games on the road. Darvish gets the ball for San Diego with his 10-5 record along with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 21 starts. The sabermetrics do call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.47 and 3.62 moving forward. And while the right-hander has a 2.17 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .172 in his ten stars at home, those numbers rise to a 4.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .256 in his 11 starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Darvish had a 3.38 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in 17 home starts but a 5.54 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and .244 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts on the road. The Padres have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total with Darvish on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. He faces a Nationals’ team that is hitting the ball surprisingly well even after trading away Soto and Bell to them. Since August 3rd after that trade was completed, Washington ranks 10th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created — and the Over is 6-1-2 in those eight games. The Nationals have played The Over is 5-0-2 in their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 5-0-2 in their last 7 games after a loss - and the Over is 4-1-2 in their last 7 games after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, Washington has played 7 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line underdog at +175 or higher. They counter with Sanchez who has an 0-5 record this season with a 7.56 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in five starts. The right-hander probably should be out of the league at this point — but the Nationals want him to eat innings the rest of the way while they conduct their soft tank to better position themselves for draft position. When he last pitched two years ago, he was saddled with a 6.62 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .313 in 11 starts which helps explain why he did not pitch in the majors last season. The sabermetrics project an ERA of 5.13 and 5.37 moving forward based on his peripheral numbers. He has already allowed eight home runs in his 25 innings of work this year — and he surrendered 11 home runs in 53 innings back in 2020. The Nationals have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in August with Sanchez on the mound — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when he is pitching as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Padres have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (905) and the Washington Nationals (906) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Anibal Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Boston Red Sox (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Nathan Eovaldi. THE SITUATION: New York (71-41) has lost two straight games — and seven of their last eight — after their 4-3 loss in Seattle to the Mariners on Wednesday. Boston (55-58) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 4-3 win against Baltimore last night.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The slumping Yankees had scored nine runs in two straight games before getting shutout by a 1-0 score to the Mariners on Tuesday and then losing by one-run again on Wednesday. New York has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by two runs or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by one run. They continue their road trip where the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games when the Total is in the 9-10.5 range — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 16 games against divisional rivals, they have played 13 of these games Over the Total. Manager Aaron Boone gives the ball to German who has a 1-2 record with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in four starts this season. After missing all of 2020 because of domestic abuse charges, he returned last season to generate a 4-5 record with a 4.58 ERA in 98 1/3 innings. His season was delayed this year due to a shoulder injury. Giving up gopher balls has always been an issue for the right-hander — and he has already served up four home runs in his 17 innings this year. German looked good in his rehab starts — but he has been saddled with a 5.68 ERA in his three starts on the road since his return to the mound. He has only pitched 106 innings from 2019 which was his best full season despite a 4.03 ERA. He has a career 4.56 ERA while allowing 1.68 home runs per nine innings. In his 25 career innings at Fenway Park, he has a 4.68 ERA. The Yankees have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total with German their starting pitcher at night. He faces a Red Sox team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams using a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total playing at home in Fenway Park. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against AL East rivals. They counter with Eovaldi who has a 5-3 record with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The right-hander missed about five weeks prior to the All-Star Break earlier this summer with back inflammation — and since his return, his velocity is down. While he did pitch surprisingly well two starts ago in Houston against the Astros recently, he still has a 7.29 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in his four starts the second half of the season. He has pitched better on the road where he owns a 2.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in ten starts — but in his seven starts at home, he has been saddled with a 6.81 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and an opponents batting average .320 in seven starts at home. The Red Sox have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total with Eovaldi pitching with the Total in the 9-10.5 range. He faces a Yankees’ lineup that ranks 3rd and 2nd on the road against right-handed starting pitchers in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games over the Total on the road against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Bronx Bombers have scored 14 runs in each of their last two games against Boston. These two teams have played 7 straight Overs — and they have played 5 straight Overs when playing in Fenway Park. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Boston Red Sox (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Nathan Eovaldi. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (913) and the Kansas City Royals (914) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: Chicago (56-55) has lost three of their last five games after their 8-3 loss on the road against the Royals last night. Kansas City (46-66) has won four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The White Sox have not scored more than three runs in six of their last seven contests. They are scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .211 batting average, .261 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .586 during that span. Chicago has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. Cease gets the ball for manager Tony LaRussa. The right-hander has a 12-4 record this season with a 1.98 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. In his last 13 starts since the end of May, Cease has not allowed more than one earned run in any of his starts. He has been particularly tough on the road where he owns a 1.33 ERA in ten starts as opposed to his 2.50 ERA in 12 starts at home. The White Sox have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road when priced as a -125 or higher money-line favorite. And in his 14 starts during the day, Cease has a 1.22 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .184. He should continue to have success against this Royals’ team that scores only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .248 batting average, .304 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .687 against righties. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game — and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after scoring eight or more runs in their last contest. And while they have not allowed more than three runs in the first three games of this series, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three runs in three straight games. The Royals have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Greinke who has a 3-7 record with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 18 starts. The veteran right-hander has seen an uptick in his velocity returning from the injured list from a flexor strain. In his last five starts, he has a 3.80 ERA. Greinke has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.23 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .238 as compared to his 7.16 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .321 on the road. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total with Greinke on the starting pitcher. He faces a White Sox team that has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 20-6-1 in their last 27 meetings — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing in Kansas City. 10* MLB Thursday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago White Sox (913) and the Kansas City Royals (914) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (927) and the Los Angeles Angels (928) listing both starting pitchers James Kaprielian and Shohei Ohtani. THE SITUATION: Oakland (39-66) has lost three straight games after their 3-1 loss to the Angels yesterday. Los Angeles (44-59) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games on the road Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road. Kaprielian takes the mound with his 2-5 record along with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 16 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 4.44 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in nine starts as compared to his 4.59 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .238 at home. In his five starts last month, Kaprielian was outstanding with a 1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .182. He faces a slumping Angels lineup (without an injured Mike Trout) that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .220 batting average, .296 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .650 during that span. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 25-9-3 in their last 37 games after a victory. Additionally, the Angels have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in their last game. The Under is also 10-2-2 in their last 14 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. They counter with Ohtani who has a 9-6 record along with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 17 starts. The sabermetrics confirm just how dominant the right-hander has been on the mound with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.34 and 2.30 moving forward. He has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.15 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .201 in nine starts as compared to his 3.60 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 on the road. Los Angeles has played 12 of their last 18 home games Under the Total with Ohtani on the mound when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces an A’s team that has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 12-3-2 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 encounters in Los Angeles at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. 10* MLB Wednesday Daily  Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (927) and the Los Angeles Angels (928) listing both starting pitchers James Kaprielian and Shohei Ohtani. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (961) and the San Francisco Giants (962) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Sampson and Carlos Rodon. THE SITUATION: Chicago (41-59) has lost two of their last three games after their 5-4 loss to the Giants yesterday. San Francisco (50-51) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs had won six straight games before dropping two of three. They have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after losing their last game. Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Sampson takes the mound for the Cubs with his 0-1 record along with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 39 1/3 innings. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in 10 2/3 innings which includes two starts as opposed to his 3.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .254 opponent’s batting average at home at Wrigley Field. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Sampson on the hill priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. He faces a slumping Giants lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game with a .220 batting average, .270 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .624 in those games. San Francisco ranks 27th in MLB since June 1st in weighted on-base percentage when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 24th in weighted Runs Scored at home against right-handed starting pitchers since the beginning of June. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. San Francisco has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and the Under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Giants have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing at home. They counter with Rodon who has an 8-6 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 20 starts. The deeper sabermetrics validate his outstanding season with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.12 and 3.14 moving forward. The lefty has a 2.05 ERA in his eight starts at home as opposed to his 3.88 ERA on the road. His teams have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total when he is the starting pitcher priced in the -125 to -175 range. He faces a Cubs team scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .224 batting average, .274 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .666 during that span. Since June 1st against left-handed starting pitchers, Chicago ranks 20th in weighted on-base percentage on the road and 23rd in weighted Runs Created. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 encounters against each other Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at Oracle Park. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (961) and the San Francisco Giants (962) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Sampson and Carlos Rodon. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Houston Astros (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Jose Urquidy. THE SITUATION: Seattle (54-45) has won three games in a row after their 4-2 win against Texas yesterday. Houston (64-35) has lost three games in a row after their 4-2 loss at Oakland on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after upsetting a divisional rival in their last game. Seattle has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning three games in a row against an AL West opponent. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range, the Mariners have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Gilbert gets the start with his 10-4 record along with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 2.42 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.19 ERA and a .248 opponent’s batting average in nine starts at home. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Gilbert starting on the road with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Houston has played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. And while the Astros have scored only five runs in their last two games, they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not scoring more than three runs in two straight games. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 18 of their last 27 home games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Urquidy who has a 9-4 record along with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237 as opposed to his 4.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 on the road. The Astros have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Urquidy on the mound after losing their last game. He faces a Mariners team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* MLB Thursday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Houston Astros (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Jose Urquidy. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: Houston (64-33) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 7-5 loss to the A’s last night. Oakland (36-63) has won four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 40-19-6 in the Astros’ last 65 games after a loss — and the Under is 29-14-1 in their last 44 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 33-16-4 in Houston’s last 53 games on the road — and they have played 23 of their last 34 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40%. Garcia gets the ball with his 8-5 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 17 starts. The sabermetrics confirm his good season with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.53 and 3.58 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average in .193 in eight starts as opposed to his 4.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in nine starts at home. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Garcia their starting pitcher on the road priced at -110 or higher. He faces an A’s team that has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 straight Unders against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Oakland has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. And while the A’s have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. At home, Oakland is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .202 batting average, .264 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .580. Montas takes the mound for the A’s to further his 3-9 record despite a 3.16 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 2.27 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .203 batting average in 11 starts as compared to his 5.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .264 when pitching on the road. Oakland has played 10 of their 11 games Under the Total with Montas pitching at home — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total with Montas their starting pitcher with the Total set at 7 or less. The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Oakland has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the AL West — and the Astros have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against divisional foes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Oakland. Lastly, Houston has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (957) and the Washington Nationals (958) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Paolo Espino. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (55-37) won their second-straight game — and 9th in their last 12 — with their 8-4 victory in the second game of this four-game series yesterday. Washington (30-62) has lost eight games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 29 of their last 42 games Under the Total after scoring at least eight runs in their last game. Atlanta has also played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Additionally, the Braves have played 24 of their last 34 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. They give the ball to Fried who has a 9-3 record along with a 2.56 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 18 starts. In his last eight starts, the left-hander enjoys a 1.93 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Fried has been more effective on the road where he sports a 2.27 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .182 in six starts as compared to his 2.72 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and opponent’s batting average of .259. Atlanta has played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total with Fried pitching with the Total set from 7-8.5. He faces a cold Nationals lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .237 batting average, .312 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .691 during that span. Washington has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Nationals have not scored more than four runs during their eight-game losing streak — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in at least six straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home. They counter with Espino who has an 0-2 record along with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 52 2/3 innings. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in 24 2/3 innings as opposed to his 3.54 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and .261 opponent’s batting average on the road. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in July with Espino on the mound.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta is not swinging great bats right now — they are scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .238 batting average, .289 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .724. The Braves have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (957) and the Washington Nationals (958) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Paolo Espino. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (913) and the Detroit Tigers (914) listing both starting pitchers Brady Singer and Tarik Skubal. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (28-48) has lost five of their last seven games after their 4-3 loss on the road against the Tigers yesterday. Detroit (30-46) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Royals have not scored more than three runs in three straight games — and they have not allowed more than four runs in their last three contests. Kansas City has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road after allowing four runs or less in three straight games. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range, the Royals have played 6 of these games Under the Total. They give the ball to Singer who has a 3-3 record with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 54 innings. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.55 and 3.58 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.86 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in 18 2/3 innings as compared to his 4.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .264. Kansas City has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when Singer is their starting pitcher in day games. The Tigers have seen the Under go 26-10-2 in their last 38 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Detroit has played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after a win by one run. And while they have not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have then played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in three straight games. Furthermore, the Under is 46-22-4 in their last 72 games at home with the Total set at 7-8.5. The Under is also 19-8-2 in the Tigers’ last 29 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. They counter with Skubal who has a 5-6 record along with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 15 starts. The sabermetrics are supportive with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.33 and 3.19 moving forward. The left-hander has been particularly tough at home where he owns a 3.13 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .235 opponent’s batting average in eight starts at home as compared to his 4.50 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and .252 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road. Detroit has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with Skubal pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He faces a Royals team that has played 36 of their last 53 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 20-5-1 in their last 26 games between these teams when played in Detroit. 10* MLB Kansas City-Detroit Peacock O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (913) and the Detroit Tigers (914) listing both starting pitchers Brady Singer and Tarik Skubal. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (685) and the Saskatchewan Roughriders (686). THE SITUATION: Montreal (1-2) won their first game of the season back on June 23rd with their 37-13 upset win at home against the Roughriders. Saskatchewan (2-1) had won the opening two games before that setback.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Roughriders were caught in a tough spot last week playing on a short week with just five days between games. Saskatchewan allowed an 88-yard kickoff return for a touchdown early in the game — and they gave up an 88-yard interception returned for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. They only allowed 333 total yards — and the 23 points they gave up from the Montreal offense is right-in-line with the 29 combined points they gave up in the first two games of the season. The Roughriders have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after an upset loss on the road when favored. Saskatchewan is dealing with injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Wide receiver Shaq Evans and offensive lineman are not expected to return for this rematch after missing last week’s game. The Roughriders only gained 328 yards last week. They have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Montreal is also dealing with a critical injury after center Sean Jamieson got hurt in last week’s game. The Alouettes’ offense may be out-of-synch with a new center snapping the ball to quarterback Trevor Harris. The Alouettes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog. Montreal averaged 9.0 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have played 5 straight Unders after averaging at least 7.6 YPP in their last contest. That result finished Over the 43.5 point total for that contest — but the Alouettes have played 6 straight Unders after an Over in their last game. Montreal has struggled with their rushing attack even with Jamieson at center — they have rushed for only 73 and 60 yards in their last two games. They have played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after not rushing for at least 75 yards in two straight games. The Alouettes' defense has allowed only 33 combined points in their last two games.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Saskatchewan. The Roughriders have played 5 straight games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. 10* CFL Montreal-Saskatchewan ESPN2 O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (685) and the Saskatchewan Roughriders (686). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Andre Pallante. THE SITUATION: Miami (33-40) has lost two in a row and four of their last five after their 5-3 loss on the road against the Cardinals. St. Louis (43-34) has won two in a row and three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have allowed five or more runs in four of their last five games. They have played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Over is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range overall. They give the ball to Alcantara who has a 7-3 record along with a 1.95 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics do call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.55 and 3.45 moving forward. Alcantara does his best pitching at home where he has a 1.80 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .192 in eight starts — but on the road, those numbers do rise to a 2.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in seven starts. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Alcantara had a 2.41 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in 16 starts at home but a 4.01 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .247 in 17 starts on the road. He faces a Cardinals team that has seen the Over go 20-9-1 in their last 30 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 5-1-1 in St. Louis’ last 7 games after a win — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Cardinals have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Pallante who has a 2-3 record with a 2.03 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 48 2/3 innings this season. The sabermetrics are screaming “regression” for the 23-year-old rookie with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.11 and 4.03 moving forward. The right-hander has been most effective on the road where he has a 1.31 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in 20 2/3 innings — but in his 28 innings at home, while his 2.57 ERA seems fine, the concern is with his 1.46 WHIP and .282 opponent’s batting average.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 5-1-1 in the Marlins’ last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 11 of their last 16 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the St. Louis Cardinals (908) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Andre Pallante. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (31) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (32) in Game Six of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Colorado (71-22-7) looks to rebound from their 3-2 loss at home against Tampa Bay in Game Five on Friday. Tampa Bay (64-29-10) still trails 3-2 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tampa Bay has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. These two teams have played two straight games where five combined goals were scored — and they have played 18 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. Tampa Bay has held the Avalanche to just seven goals in the last three games of this series. Now the Lightning return home to Amalie Arena where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Playing at home gives head coach Jon Cooper the advantage of the last line change which is critical in this series. Cooper has two elite defensive forward groups — and at home, he can play the Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and Alex Killorn group against Colorado’s top forward line featuring Nathan MacKinnon. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy who stopped 35 of the 37 shots he faced in Game Five. He posted +0.42 Goals Saved Above Expectation — and he has a +14.12 GSAx in this postseason. After the disastrous Game Two when the Lightning defense let him down, Vasilevskiy has stopped 106 of the 113 shots he has faced for a .934 save percentage. In his ten playoff games at home this year, last year’s Conn Smythe Award winner for winning Most Valuable Player in the postseason has a 1.82 Goals-Against-Average and a .944 save percentage. Colorado has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss at home by just one goal. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. After getting pulled in Game Three, Avalanche goaltender Darcy Kuemper has settled down to only allow five goals on 68 shots for a .926 save percentage in the last two games. Colorado held the Lightning to only 2.1 expected goals on Friday — but they managed only 2.4 expected goals in that contest.

FINAL TAKE: The Lightning have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in a Game Six in a playoff series. 10* NHL Colorado-Tampa Bay ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (31) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (32). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (29) and the Colorado Avalanche (30) in Game Five of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (64-29-10) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Four by a 3-2 score in overtime on Wednesday. Colorado (71-22-7) has won eight of their last nine games while taking a 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tampa Bay got back to playing better defense in the two games at home at Amalie Arena as they allowed only five combined goals which include the 12:02 minutes of overtime on Wednesday. With the Lightning forward depth dealing with injuries, head coach Jon Cooper’s strategy will need to be that eke out a lower-scoring game tonight after losing in coin flip games in overtime in two of their three losses. Brayden Point may take the ice tonight given the urgency — although it is worth noting that Cooper said before Game Four that Point may not be ready to play before Game Six. Point did play in the first two games in this series but he is not close to 100% and lacks the effectiveness that helped him lead the Lightning’s scoring attack in their previous two championship runs. Anthony Cirelli is less than 100% as well with an arm injury — that will not help his offensive efforts but he should still be effective as a defensive presence which is where his strengths lie anyways. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing their previous game at home by only one goal. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And in their last 9 games played with one day of rest, the Lightning have played 8 of these games Under the Total. They go back on the road where they only scored three times in their two prior games in Colorado in this series. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 playoff games Under the Total as an underdog. Tampa Bay has also played 20 of their last 25 Game Fives in a playoff series Under the Total. Colorado has played 19 of their last 31 games Under the Total after winning their last game on the road by one goal. Goalie Darcy Kuemper appeared to regain his confidence between the pipes in Game Four by stopping 37 of the 39 shots he faced. He posted a 2.51 Goals-Against-Average with a .920 save percentage when playing at home in the regular season.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 10* NHL Tampa Bay-Colorado ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (29) and the Colorado Avalanche (30). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (919) and the Chicago White Sox (920) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Johnny Cueto. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (31-39) has won four of their last six games after their 7-0 victory against the Nationals yesterday. Chicago (33-34) looks to bounce back from a 9-5 loss to Toronto yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 6 straight Overs — and the Over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 road games as an underdog. The Over is also 9-3-1 in their last 13 games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They give the ball to Kremer who has a 1-1 record along with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in three starts this season. The sabermetrics indicate he has likely been overachieving given his SIERA and xFIP that project an ERA of 4.65 and 4.53 moving forward. Kremer was 0-7 last year with a 7.55 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in 13 starts. He faces a White Sox team this is scoring 6.6 Runs Per-Game in their last seven games with a .308 Batting Average, .372 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .852. Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, the Over is 5-0-1 in the White Sox’s last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has played 7 straight home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight Overs with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They counter with Cueto who has a 1-3 record with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 42 2/3 innings. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.13 and 4.09 moving forward. And in his 17 2/3 innings at home for the White Sox, he has a 5.60 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 as compared to his 1.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .195.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has played 5 straight Overs on the road against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 straight Overs against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or higher. 10* MLB Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (919) and the Chicago White Sox (920) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Johnny Cueto. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (27) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (28) in Game Four of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Colorado (70-22-7) had their seven-game winning streak snapped on Monday in their 6-2 loss on the road against the Lightning. Tampa Bay (64-29-9) has won five of their last seven games while winning their first game in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After the Lightning needed to tighten things up on the defensive end of the ice after losing 7-0 in Game Two on Saturday, now it is the Avalanche that needs to shore some things up on defense after allowing six goals in the first 35 minutes of Game Three before Tampa Bay coasted the rest of the way. Colorado has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing six or more goals in their last contest. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road after playing two straight games where at least seven combined goals were scored. Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, the Lightning have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing two goals or less in their last game. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy was outstanding between the pipes on Monday — he stopped 37 of the 39 shots he faced while generating +4.68 goals saved above expectation in that game. Vasilevskiy has a .947 save percentage at home in the playoffs this season — and he has allowed only six goals at five-on-five even strength at home in nine playoff games with a .972 save percentage under those circumstances.

FINAL TAKE: Injuries threaten to remove up to four forwards tonight. For Tampa Bay, it does look like Nikita Kucherov will take the ice after taking a big hit in Game Three — but Brayden Point looks doubtful after not playing in Game Three. For Colorado, Nazem Kadri may play for the first time since breaking his thumb earlier in the playoffs — but Andre Burakovsky is still day-to-day. The Avalanche have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total on the road when avenging a loss on the road. 10* NHL Colorado-Tampa Bay ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (27) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (28). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (35) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (26) in Game Three of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Colorado (70-21-7) has won seven games in a row after taking Game Two of this series by a 7-0 score. Tampa Bay (63-29-9) returns home trailing 0-2 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lightning need to tighten things up on defense after giving up 11 goals in the first two games in this series. Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games after playing their last two games on the road. They have also played 7 straight Unders when playing with one day of rest. They return home where they have played 5 straight Unders at Amalie Arena. Returning home where head coach Jon Cooper gets to make the final line change will help. Tampa Bay has allowed only five goals in their last five games at home in these playoffs with a .971 save percentage. They have also played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total when favored. Colorado has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a victory on their home ice by three or more goals. And after winning Game One by a 4-3 score in overtime, the Avalanche have played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Over the Total after seeing at least seven combined goals scored in their last two games.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has won all four of their games against the Lightning this season — and Tampa Bay has played 4 straight Unders against teams who have beaten them at least four times in a row. 10* NHL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (35) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (26). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (23) and the Colorado Avalanche (24) in Game Two of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (63-28-4) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 4-3 loss in overtime in Game One of the Stanley Cup Finals. Colorado (69-21-7) has won six games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lightning got burned by the speed of the Avalanche early in Game One as they allowed three goals in the first period — but they settled down to only allow one goal in the next two periods before allowing the game-winner early in overtime. That was reminiscent of their previous where after showing some rust to begin their series with the Rangers, the Lightning tightened things up on defense by only allowing five combined goals over their last four games to take control of that series. Tampa Bay gave up only one goal in each of their last three games against the Rangers. The Lightning have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after losing in overtime in their previous game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has a .926 save percentage in the playoffs while averaging +0.67 goals saved above expectation per 60 minutes — and he has an outstanding postseason Goals-Against-Average and save percentage in the playoffs coming off a loss. Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 7 of their last 10 second games of a playoff series Under the Total. Colorado has played 5 of their last 7 Game Twos of a new series Under the Total. The Avalanche have played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total after winning their last game in overtime. And after closing out their series against Edmonton with a win in overtime, the Avalanche have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by one goal. The defensive pair of Cole Makar and Devon Toews should continue to play outstanding defense after holding the powerful Edmonton offensive attack led by Connor McDavid to just two goals in Games Two and Three of that series. Head coach Jared Bednar has the advantage of getting to play this pair against the Lightning top forward line of Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, and Steven Stamkos. This will present a problem for head coach Jon Cooper since his third forward line does not present much of a scoring threat. But that forward line of Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Alex Killorn has been stout on defense this postseason by allowing only 1.26 expected goals allowed per 60 minutes -- and they posted an expected goals shared of 77.6% against the Rangers. The second forward line gets Point back — but I don’t expect him to regain his scoring prowess immediately. For the Avalanche, they are still without Nazem Kadri who had his thumb broken last round. He may return later in the series.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado won both regular season meetings between these two teams — and Tampa Bay has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge against their opponent. The Lightning have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against opponents who have beaten them in at least three straight meetings. 10* NHL Tampa Bay-Colorado ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (23) and the Colorado Avalanche (24). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (953) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (36-27) has won six of their last seven games with their 2-0 victory in the opening game of this series. Pittsburgh (25-38) has lost ten of their last 11 games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants have not allowed more than three runs in seven straight games — and they have held six of those opponents to two runs or less. The Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a win — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. San Francisco has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road when favored. They give the ball to Wood who has a 4-5 record with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.36 and 3.03 moving forward. He left-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.82 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .230 opponent’s batting average of .230 in six starts as compared to his 4.40 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and .298 batting average in six starts at home. He faces a cold Pirates lineup that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .167 Batting Average, .224 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .530 during that span. The Under is 12-4-4 in Pittsburgh’s last 20 games against a left-handed starting pitchers. The Pirates have scored one run or less in three of their last four games — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Pittsburgh has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at home. They counter with Quintana who has a 1-4 record with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 12 starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.88 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in seven starts as compare to his 4.44 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and .260 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. The Pirates have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total with Quintana their starting pitcher this season. Quintana also has a nice 3.16 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in his six starts in the daytime. He faces a slumping Giants team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .207 Batting Average, .304 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .674 in those contests. San Francisco has played 5 straight games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Pittsburgh has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. 10* MLB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (953) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (527) and the Boston Celtics (528) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (68-35) can win the NBA Championship tonight after taking a 3-2 lead in this series with their 104-94 win at home against the Celtics as a 4-point favorite on Monday. Boston (65-40) returns home looking to stave off elimination after losing three of the last four games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I suspect the market has not adapted enough to the fundamental change that has occurred in this series. After holding the Celtics to just 97 and then 94 points in the last two games in this series, the Warriors have found the answers as to how to best deploy their defensive efforts. Golden State is playing tight and aggressive defense that is making things uncomfortable for both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics lack a consistent third scoring option or reliable 3-point shooting to counter these tactics. Let’s remember that Golden State ranked second in the NBA by holding their opponents to just 107 points per 100 possessions in the regular season — despite not playing with Draymond Green for a long stretch. Game Three of this series had 216 combined points scored after Game Two only had 195 combined points scored. The Warriors have held Boston to no more 88, 94, and 97 points in three of their last four games. The lone exception was in Game Three when Boston scored 116 points — fueled by a 47 to 31 edge on the boards. Warriors’ head coach Steve Kerr immediately made his team’s effort on the boards a high priority. After pulling down 15 offensive rebounds in that Game Three, the Celtics have only managed 11 and then 8 offensive boards in the two games since after Kerr cajoled his team to tighten things up. The last two games in this series have had only 204 and 198 combined points scored — and Golden State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where no more than 205 combined points were scored. The Warriors’ energy level of defense should continue with the extra day of rest — they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest including seven of those last ten occasions. Golden State was called for 28 personal fouls on Monday with Boston being whistled for only 16 fouls — and the Warriors have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after being called for at least 10 more personal fouls than their opponent. Golden State is scoring only 105.2 points per game in this series with that average dropping to 103.7 PPG in the last three games. One of the dynamics that is contributing to this is the less of a role Jordan Poole is playing. Poole is a liability on defense which has compelled Kerr to give him less playing time. He is averaging just 17 minutes per game in the last two games after only being on the court for 14:17 minutes on Monday mostly to give Stephen Curry a spell. He did score 14 points in Game Five — but three of those points were that buzzer-beating 40-footer at the end of the third quarter. Golden State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 95 points in their last game. Additionally, the Celtics have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when committing at least 10 fewer personal fouls than their opponent in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge from two straight losses by double-digits to their opponent. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (527) and the Boston Celtics (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (11) and the Colorado Avalanche (12) in Game One of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (63-28-8) has won four straight games after defeating the New York Rangers by a 2-1 score to end the Eastern Conference Finals in six games. Colorado (68-21-7) has won five games in a row after completing their four-game sweep against Edmonton with their 6-5 victory on the road in overtime back on June 6th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After showing some rust to begin their series with the Rangers, the Lightning tightened things up on defense by only allowing five combined goals over their last four games to take control of that series. Tampa Bay gave up only one goal in each of their last three games. The Lightning have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two goals in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has a .928 save percentage in the playoffs with +12.7 goals saved above expectation. Tampa Bay goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The Lightning expect to get back forward Brayden Point who has not played since Game Seven in the opening round of the playoffs against Toronto. Point is a great two-way player — but his offensive game is predicated on his speed which will be difficult for him to regain given his time off and the lingering effects of his leg injury. Colorado has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after winning their last game in overtime. The Avalanche have also played 4 straight Unders after allowing five or more goals in their last game. Colorado may be rusty after not playing for nine days after completing their sweep against the Oilers. Tampa Bay only scored two goals in each of the first two games last round which may have been a result of them not being sharp after an extended break after they swept Florida in the previous round. But the defensive pair of Cole Makar and Devon Toews should continue to play outstanding defense after holding the powerful Edmonton offensive attack led by Connor McDavid to just two goals in Games Two and Three of that series. Head coach Jared Bednar has the advantage of getting to play this pair against the Lightning top forward line of Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, and Steven Stamkos. This will present a problem for head coach Jon Cooper since his third forward line does not present much of a scoring threat. But that forward line of Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Alex Killorn has been stout on defense this postseason by allowing only 1.26 expected goals allowed per 60 minutes -- and they posted an expected goals share of 77.6% against the Rangers. The second forward line gets Point back — but I don’t expect him to regain his scoring prowess immediately. For the Avalanche, they are still without Nazem Kadri who had his thumb broken last round. He may return later in the series.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado won both regular-season meetings between these two teams — and Tampa Bay has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge against their opponent. 25* NHL Wednesday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (11) and the Colorado Avalanche (12). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (525) and the Golden State Warriors (526) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-39) looks to rebound from their 107-97 upset loss as a 4-point favorite at home on Friday. Golden State (67-35) evened this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a solid technical play. The Celtics have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss in their last game — and they have played 4 straight Unders after an upset loss where they lost by double-digits. Boston has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after playing their last two games on their home court. Getting back to two days off between games should help the Celtics’ energy when playing defense — they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Golden State has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 8 straight Unders when playing on their home court with two days of rest. The Warriors return home where they have played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They have also played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. These two teams have played 18 of their last 24 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Golden State.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 6 of their last 9 playoff games Under the Total when tied in the series — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss at home. 10* NBA Boston-Golden State ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (525) and the Golden State Warriors (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (979) and the Los Angeles Angels (980) listing both starting pitchers Taijaun Walker and Patrick Sandoval. THE SITUATION: The New York Mets (39-22) have lost three of their last four games after their 11-6 loss in Los Angeles to the Angels in the second game of this series. Los Angeles (29-32) has now won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least five or more runs in their last game. New York has played three straight Overs — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing three or more straight Overs. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total as an underdog priced up to +150. The Mets are dealing with a tired bullpen that has pitched nine innings in the last two games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after their bullpen has pitched nine or more innings in their last two games. New York’s receivers surrendered six runs last night — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when their bullpen allowed four or more earned runs in their last game. Walker gets the ball for them tonight. He has a 3-2 record with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 9 starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.94 and 4.58 moving forward. His ERA on the road rises to a 3.41 mark -- and that coincides with the disparate home/road splits he was saddled with last season. While Walker had a 3.46 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in 16 games (15 starts) at home, those numbers rose to a 5.82 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in 14 starts on the road. The Mets have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Walker the starting pitcher and priced up to +150. Walker’s teams have also played 7 straight Over when he is the starting pitcher in Interleague play. Walker faces an Angels team that ranks sixth in baseball in both weighed On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created (wRC) when playing at home against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles got Mike Trout back in the lineup last night — and he bashed two home runs to lead the scoring attack. The Angels banged out five home runs last night — and they have played 3 of their 4 games this season Over the Total after hitting four or more home runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 18 of their last 25 games at home Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. This team has played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total in June. They counter with Sandoval who has a 3-1 record along with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. The left-hander is walking too many batters — and both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.31 and 4.08 moving forward. His ERA bumps up to 3.00 in five starts at home this season. Last season, Sandoval had a 3-6 record along with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 77 innings — but in his 48 1/3 innings at home, those numbers rose to a 3.91 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. The Angels have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with Sandoval pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets are hitting right now — they are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .270 Batting Average and a .754 OPS over that span. New York has played 4 straight Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (979) and the Los Angeles Angels (980). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (53) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (54) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (62-28-8) has won the last three games in this series after their 3-1 victory in Game Five on Thursday. New York (62-31-8) looks to stave off elimination to force a decisive Game Seven tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lightning have gained control of the series by being content in lower-scoring games where they control puck possession and limit the turnovers that were giving the Rangers odd-man rushes in the first two games of this series. Tampa Bay has only allowed two goals in the last two games — but they have scored only five goals at even strength in those two contests. Just as in Game Four, the final Lightning goal was an empty-netter with under a minute to go. Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last contests. Now the Lightning return home where they have played 4 straight Unders. They have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and they have also played 7 straight home games Under the Total in the playoffs in closeout opportunities. Andrei Vasilevskiy has six shutouts in those seven close-out games for the Lightning. After having some early timing issues in this series with his blocker, he has been sensational during the three-game winning streak. In his seven starts at home in the playoffs, Vasilevskiy has a 1.79 Goals-Against-Average and a .946 save percentage. New York has seen the Under go 41-19-1 in their last 61 games after scoring two goals or less in their last game. They have also played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after losing their last game at home. The Rangers have played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. They go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5. Furthermore, New York has played 4 straight Unders as an underdog. The Rangers have allowed only 36 goals at five-on-five even strength in the playoffs despite the analytics projecting them to give up 3.53 expected goals per 60 minutes. Goalie Igor Shesterkin is the reason for New York's overachieving — he has +16.5 goals saved above expectation at five-on-five even strength in the postseason along with a .929 save percentage.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge against their opponent -- including all four of those circumstances this season. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (53) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (54). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (523) and the Boston Celtics (524) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (66-35) has lost three of their last five games after their 116-100 loss on the road against the Celtics as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday in Game Three of the NBA Finals. Boston (65-38) has won five of their last seven games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Steve Kerr identified that the biggest issue his team had in Game Three was getting beat on the boards. The Celtics enjoyed a 47-31 edge on the glass on Wednesday — and while they will likely continue to have an edge in that area, the Warriors need to work harder to minimize that advantage. There are some lineup moves that Kerr can make — first and foremost, Kevon Looney is likely to get more time tonight after playing only 16:49 minutes in Game Three. Kerr will likely want Looney to be on the court for longer stretches tonight to slow down the Celtics’ edge on the glass. This move will help Golden State’s defensive cause, but it will also hurt them on the offensive end. Looney is not a threat to score — and his presence on the court allows the Boston defender assigned to him to provide more help in rim protection. Golden State also needs a better game from Draymond Green after he only pulled down four rebounds before fouling out in what was his worst game in the postseason. Green later defined his own play as “soft,” which is a pretty good indication that he will be addressing the problem himself. In hindsight, it looks like he got caught up in all the technical fouls and officiating talk earlier in the week. Expect for Green to be more physical and active tonight. The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They have also played 21 of their last 34 games Under the Total when playing their second game in five days. Additionally, Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog.
Boston nailed 48.3% of their shots in Game Three which was the second-best shooting mark in their last seven games. They are also making 43% of their shots from behind the arc in this series — I do expect that to decline. Boston did play their worst defensive game in their last four contests by allowing the Warriors to make 46.2% of their shots. That defensive field goal percentage was the second-highest that the Celtics have allowed in their last seven games. Boston is favored again tonight — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have played 8 of their last 12 playoff games Under the Total when leading the series — and Golden State has played 15 of their last 21 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series. 10* NBA Friday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (523) and the Boston Celtics (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (521) and the Boston Celtics (522) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (66-34) has won six of their last eight games after winning Game Two of the NBA Finals by a 107-88 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Boston (64-38) returns home with this series tied at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 15 of their 37 shots (40.5%) from behind the arc in Game Two — after making 19 of their 45 shots (42.2%) from behind the arc in Game One. After converting 34 of their 82 shots from 3-point range in the two games at Golden State, I do not expect the Warriors to continue to shoot 41.5% from behind the arc. Golden State shoots 35.7% from the 3-point land when playing away from home — and the Celtics hold their opponents to 33.7% shooting from behind the arc. The extra day of rest should help both teams have fresh legs for their energy and efforts on defense. The Warriors have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boston made 15 of their 37 shots (40.5%) from behind the arc in Game Two despite only shooting 37.5% overall. The Celtics won Game One because of their 21 of 41 clip (51.2%) from 3-point range. After making 36 of their 78 shots (46.2%) from behind the arc in the first two games, I expect that percentage to drop tonight. Boston shoots 35.4% from 3-point range at home — and the Warriors hold their opponents to 34.6% shooting from behind the arc this season. I expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance to slow down both teams’ 3-point shooting. The Celtics should be tough on defense with the extra day of rest and preparation — they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Boston has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And in their last 10 games when favored, the Celtics have played 7 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 20 of their last 28 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Boston. 10* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (521) and the Boston Celtics (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (45) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (46) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: New York (62-29-8) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 3-2 loss on the road against the Lightning. Tampa Bay (60-28-8) has won seven of their last nine games after winning their first game in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a loss by just one goal. The Under is also 39-19-1 in their last 59 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. The Rangers scored both of their goals on the power play — but their inability to score at even strength is a cause for concern. They stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 20 of their last 28 road games Under the Total when the Total is listed at 5.5. Don’t blame goalie Igor Shesterkin for the loss — he has a .936 save percentage in this series after stopping 49 of the 52 shots he faced in Game Three. He has +17 saves above expectation in the playoffs. The Lightning have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 13 of their last 18 home games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 playoff games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when favored. 10* NHL Tuesday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (45) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (46). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (43) and the Edmonton Oilers (44) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Colorado (67-21-7) has won four straight games and six of their last seven with their 4-2 victory against the Oilers in Game Three of this series. Edmonton (57-34-6) has lost three in a row to fall behind 3-0 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Oilers have been frustrated by the Avalanche defense in the last two games as they have only scored two goals. Now Edmonton will be without forward Evander Kane who is suspended for tonight’s contest after his hit on Colorado’s Nazem Kadri. Kane leads the NHL playoffs with 13 goals in 15 games. The Oilers have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total at home after a loss by two or more goals. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four. Edmonton has now surrendered at least four goals in four straight games — but they have then played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total after allowing three or more goals in their last two games. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing four or more goals in two straight games. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Oilers have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series. Edmonton did play solid defense on Saturday — they held the Avalanche to just 2.48 expected goals in that contest. Colorado will miss Kadri’s eight goals and six assists in the playoffs this postseason. But they are getting great goaltending from Pavel Francouz who got some valuable playoff experience in the postseason in the 2020 bubble. He now has a 5-0 record with a 2.37 Goals-Against-Average and a .920 save percentage in these playoffs. He also has a +1.2 Goals Saved Above Expectation mark which indicates he is playing above average. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Avalanche’s last 8 games in Western Conference Finals. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Edmonton.

FINAL TAKE: The Oilers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 20* NHL Colorado-Edmonton TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (43) and the Edmonton Oilers (44). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (519) and the Golden State Warriors (520) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (64-37) has won four of their last five games after taking a 1-0 lead in this series. Golden State (65-34) has lost two of their last three games after their 120-108 upset loss at home to the Celtics in the opening game of this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Golden State allowed the Celtics to make 50.6% of their shots on Thursday which was their worst game on defense in their last 13 contests. Boston also made 21 of their 41 shots (51.2%) from behind the arc. First up on head coach Steve Kerr’s list of Things To Do is shore things up on defense. The Warriors have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss by double-digits. The extra day of rest and preparation should help as Golden State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 7 straight games at home Under the Total when getting two days between games. The Warriors have played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. Furthermore, Golden State has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when trailing in the playoffs. Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and Daniel Theis combined to nail 18 of their 27 shots (67%) from 3-point range — just a tremendous accomplishment for a group where just Pritchard and Theis made more than 33.6% of their 3-pointers in the regular season yet, tellingly, they averaged fewer 3-point attempts per game than the trio of Horford, Smart, and White in the regular season. The Celtics are not likely to shoot as well from behind the arc tonight — but they should defend the arc better after Golden State made 19 of their 45 shots (42%) from 3-point range. Boston was second in the regular season by limiting their opponents to 33.9% shooting from behind the arc.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 16 of their last 21 meetings Under the Total — including 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing at Golden State. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (519) and the Golden State Warriors (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (37) and the Edmonton Oilers (38) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Colorado (66-21-7) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 4-0 shutout victory on Thursday. Edmonton (57-33-6) returns home having been on a four-game winning streak before the setback.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Avalanche offensive attack kept rolling in Game Two as they scored at least four goals for the fifth time in their last six games. They have scored 12 goals against the shaky Oilers defense after their 8-6 victory in Game One of this series. Colorado has played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after winning their last two games at home. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning their last two games by two or more goals. They peppered Edmonton goalie Mike Smith with 40 shots — that was the fifth straight game where they generated at least 34 shots. The Avalanche have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after putting at least 33 shots on net in three straight games. Now they go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. Colorado has only scored two goals in their nine Power Play chances in this series which is a bit lower than their 31.6% success rate with the man-advantage in the postseason. With Darcy Kuemper questionable with the upper-body injury that compelled him to exit early in the second period in Game One, it will likely be Pavel Francouz between the pipes again tonight. This will be his sixth career start in the playoffs on the road — and he has just a .901 save percentage in these six previous appearances on the road in the playoffs. Edmonton has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss on the road by more than one goal. The Oilers have also played 12 of their last 15 games at home Over the Total after a loss by three or more goals. They return home where they have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total. They have scored at least four goals in four of their last five games on home ice. They have also played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Edmonton has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from two straight losses to their opponent by more than one goal. 25* NHL Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (37) and the Edmonton Oilers (38). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (517) and the Golden State Warriors (518) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (63-37) won their third game in their last four with their 100-96 victory on the road in Miami as a 3-point favorite to take that series in seven games. Golden State (65-33) has won five of their last six games after their 120-110 victory at home against Dallas as a 1.5-point favorite last Thursday to close out that series in five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Celtics took Game Seven against the Heat despite making only 41.2% of their shots against them which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They are making 45.4% of their shots in the playoffs — and they are scoring 112.0 Points-Per-Game when playing on the road this season. The Over is 20-9-1 in their last 30 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 18-8-1 in their last 27 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Boston has played 30 of their last 47 road games Over the Total after playing their last game on the road — and they have played 44 of their last 70 road games over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Golden State has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They made 51.1% of their shots against the Mavericks last Thursday to close out that series. The Warriors lead all teams in the playoffs by scoring 117.8 points per 100 possessions — up from the 112.8 points per 100 possessions scoring clip they enjoyed in the regular season. They are making 49.4% of their shots in the postseason which is generating 114.5 PPG. Furthermore, Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the third time in the last ten days.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog — and Golden State has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the NBA Finals. 10* NBA Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (517) and the Golden State Warriors (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (33) and the Colorado Avalanche (34) in Game Two of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Colorado (65-21-7) has won two straight games and four of their last five contests after their 8-6 victory against the Oilers in Game One of this series. Edmonton (57-32-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss as they fell behind, 1-0, in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: While I don’t expect another 14 combined goals tonight, the expected goals data had the Avalanche scoring 4.83 expected goals and the Oilers nearly matching with 4.37 expected goals. I suspect both teams score at least three more goals tonight — especially given the shaky goaltending situations for both teams. Colorado has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 21 of their last 32 games Over the Total after winning at least three of their last four games. Colorado took 46 shots against Edmonton in Game One — and they have peppered the net with at least 34 shots in four straight games. They have then played 24 of their last 35 games Over the Total after attempting at least 30 shots in three straight games. The Avalanche have also played 20 of their last 29 playoff games Over the Total when favored. Colorado goaltender Darcy Kuemper pulled himself from Tuesday’s game with an injury that will keep him out tonight — and that means Pavel Francouz will get the start after he allowed three goals on the 21 shots Francouz has a 3.59 Goals-Against-Average and an .889 save percentage in these playoffs after getting over 100 minutes of action in the first round against Nashville. He has a -1.69 goals saved above expectation mark in his 133:38 minutes in this postseason. Edmonton has now scored at least four goals in six straight games. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game. The Oilers have also played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after scoring at least three goals in three straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after scoring at least four goals in four straight contests. Furthermore, Edmonton has played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog. Mike Smith looked shell-shocked on Tuesday after getting pulled when he allowed his sixth goal on just 25 shots. He had a -3.66 goals saved below expectation. While he is likely to get back between the pipes tonight, he will still face the onslaught which is this Avalanche team without much help from his blue line.  

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams when playing in Colorado. And in the Oilers’ last 16 games when avenging a loss on the road, they have played 12 of these games Over the Total. 10* NHL Edmonton-Colorado TNT O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (33) and the Colorado Avalanche (34). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (31) and the New York Rangers (32) in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (59-26-8) has won six games in a row after their four-game sweep of Florida that culminated with their 2-0 victory back on May 23rd. New York (60-28-8) has won four of their last five games after taking Game Seven in their series with Carolina with a 6-2 victory on the road on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lightning tightened things up on defense and began playing tough playoff hockey to take Game Seven of their series with Toronto by a 2-1 score — and that carried over into their series against the powerful Panthers attack. Tampa Bay held Florida to three combined goals in that four-game sweep — and they have not allowed more than one goal in five straight games. With Brayden Point likely out for most (or all) of this series, this will likely continue to be the formula for success for head coach Jon Cooper’s team. The Lightning have played 5 straight Unders after a victory. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring no more than two goals in their last game — and they have played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than two goals in their last contest. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has rediscovered the form that led him to win the Conn Smythe Award last season. In his last five games, Vasilevskiy has a 0.80 Goals-Against-Average with a .978 save percentage. The Lightning allowed only one power-play goal by the Panthers last round in 13 opportunities — their Power Play Kill Unit has thwarted 36 of their opponent’s 41 chances (87.8%) with the man advantage in the playoffs. Tampa Bay will continue to miss Point who is tied with Nathan MacKinnon for the most goals in the previous two postseasons with 16 goals. The Lightning are just third of the four remaining teams in the playoffs in expected goals per 60 minutes. Tampa Bay has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored. The Under is also 6-2-3 in the Lightning’s last 11 games in the Eastern Conference Finals. New York has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by three or more goals against a Metropolitan Division rival in their last game. The Rangers rallied from a 3-2 deficit in the second straight series after winning Game Six by a 5-2 score. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by multiple goals — and they have played 29 of their last 44 games at home Under the Total after scoring at least three goals in two straight games. Goalie Igor Shesterkin has been outstanding over his last ten starts with a 2.09 Goals-Against-Average and a .939 save percentage. He leads all goaltenders in the playoffs by averaging +1.004 goals saved above expectation per 60 minutes. The Under is 7-2-1 in the Rangers’ last 10 playoff games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: New York swept all three games against the Lightning in the regular season after beating them on March 19th by a 2-1 victory. Tampa Bay has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge. 20* NHL Tampa Bay-NY Rangers ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (31) and the New York Rangers (32). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (27) and the Colorado Avalanche (28) in Game One of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Edmonton (57-31-6) closed out their series with Calgary in five games after their 5-4 win in overtime on the road on Thursday. Colorado (64-21-7) has won three of their last four contests with their 3-2 victory on the road against St. Louis to end that series in six games on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Edmonton has scored at least four goals in five straight games. The Oilers have then played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after scoring at least three goals in three straight games — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after scoring at least four goals in four straight contests. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game. Furthermore, the Oilers will have fresh legs tonight having not played for the last five days — and the Over is 27-12-3 in their last 42 games when playing with at least three days of rest. Additionally, Edmonton has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog.

At 8:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (21) and the Carolina Hurricanes (22) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (61-26-8) looks to rebound from their 5-2 loss in Madison Square Garden against the Rangers on Saturday. New York (59-28-8) has won three of their last four games to force this Game Seven.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win at home where they scored at least four goals. They have also played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They should continue to get outstanding goaltending from Igor Shesterkin who has a .926 save percentage in the postseason. New York goes back on the road where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5. They have also played 7 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. Carolina has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss to a Metropolitan Division rival — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by more than one goal to a divisional opponent. The Hurricanes have also played 5 straight Unders after not scoring more than one goal in their last game. They return home where they have played 4 straight Unders. They should get better goaltending from Antti Raanta tonight after he was pulled early in the second period on Saturday. Raanta has won all six of his starts at home in the postseason while posting a 0.97 Goals-Against-Average and a .965 save percentage.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing each other at PNC Arena in Raleigh. 10* NHL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (21) and the Carolina Hurricanes (22). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (509) and the Miami Heat (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (62-37) looks to rebound from their 111-103 upset loss at home to the Heat as an 8-point underdog on Friday. Miami (64-35) snapped a two-game losing streak in this series to force the decisive Game Seven.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs Under the Total when the series was tied. Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Heat have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home after losing two of their last three games. They return home for this Game Seven where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing on the road avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (509) and the Miami Heat (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (13) and the New York Rangers (14) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (61-25-8) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 3-1 victory at home on Thursday. New York (58-28-8) returns home to Madison Square Garden hoping to stave off elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: All five games in this series have finished Under the Total with only one of the games even seeing five combined goals. Both teams are averaging just 1.8 Goals-Per-Game in this series. The Hurricanes have not scored more than three goals in seven straight contests. The Under is 3-1-1 in Carolina’s last 5 games after a win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory at home against a Metropolitan Division rival. The Under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Head coach Rod Brind’amour is getting outstanding goaltending from Antti Raanta who has a 1.99 Goals-Against-Average and a .931 save percentage in the playoffs. Raanta has +4.6 goals saved above expectation in the postseason. But now the Hurricanes go back on the road where they have not scored more than two goals in five playoff games — and they only scored two goals in their two previous games at Madison Square Garden against the Rangers. Carolina has now played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total in the second round of the playoffs. New York has played 22 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. The Under is also 39-18-1 in their last 58 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. Goalie Igor Shesterkin has a 2.05 Goals-Against-Average at home in six playoff games with a .949 save percentage. In 30 games (29 starts) at home in the regular season, Shesterkin posted similar numbers with a 1.85 GAA and a .940 save percentage.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers only had 15 shot attempts in Game Five. They have only posted more than 28 shots once in this series. With these teams now very familiar with each other, expect another lower-scoring game tonight. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (13) and the New York Rangers (14). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (505) and the Boston Celtics (506) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (63-35) has lost two straight and three of the last four games in this series after a 93-80 loss at home as a 3-point underdog on Wednesday. Boston (62-36) took a 3-2 lead in the series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After scoring only 82 points and shooting a season-low 33.3% from the field in their 20-point loss on the road in Game Four, Wednesday’s Game Five was the time that the Heat needed to step up. Instead, they made only 7 of their 45 shots (16%) from behind the arc and set a new standard in futility with their shooting for the season by making only 31.9% of their shots in scoring just 83 points in their seven-point loss. I don’t Miami is a fraud — my conclusion is that injuries have simply robbed the team of its offensive identity. Everything starts with Jimmy Butler — exemplified in Game One when he scored 41 points while getting to the free-throw line 18 times. The Heat scored 118 points against the top statistical defense in the NBA. And head coach Erik Spoelstra has his team shoot plenty of shots from behind the arc as they demonstrated by their dominant start to Game Three where they seized a 26-point lead in the second quarter. Then Butler re-injured the knee that has been nagging him for much of the season. Miami holds on to win Game Three — and Butler returns to the court to play in the last two games. But he is a shell of himself. In Game Four, he scores only 6 points on 3 of 14 shooting — and he is no drive in his game as he fails to get to the free-throw line even once. He was a bit better on Wednesday — but he still only got to three free throw line four times in scoring 13 points on 4 of 18 shooting. Since the injury, he has made only 7 of 32 shots for a 21.9% field goal percentage. Kyle Lowry was brought in during the offseason to be the second or third scoring option in the starting lineup — but he is far from 100% with the Hamstring that kept him earlier in the playoffs. He did not score in Game Five after scoring just 3 points in Game Four. Lowry has made only one shot in the last two games — and he has taken just 12 shots in those two contests. Tyler Herro won the Sixth Man of the Year Award by scoring 20.7 Points-Per-Game coming off the bench — but the Heat have been without their second-leading scorer since he injured his groin in Game Three. Even if he returns tonight, his effectiveness is in doubt since his injury usually puts players on the shelf for two to four weeks. Bam Adebayo has been fine — he scored 18 points on 8 of 15 shooting on Wednesday. But he is not a number one scoring option — and this clever Celtics team now knows to focus their energies on him. Miami has Victor Oladipo who can provide offense — but he scored only 3 points on 1 of 7 shooting coming off the bench in Game Five. Spoelstra cannot play Duncan Robinson because he is a liability on defense. That puts Max Strus in the starting line up who missed all nine of his shots from the field on Wednesday. Miami can’t flip a switch to make Butler or Lowry or Herro healthy again — and perhaps the flaw of this team is that they really need at least two of those guys performing well to complement Adebayo. Since Game Two of this series, the Heat are scoring 1.01 Points-Per-Possession — and they are scoring 0.84 Points-Per-Possession in the halfcourt. Granted, they should make more than the 13 of 39 clip-on uncontested shots from the field they endured in Game Five. But this is now a team that is likely to struggle to score even 90 points when playing on the road against the elite Boston defense. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing their last opponent to shoot 35% or better from the field. The Celtics have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. Back at home, Boston has played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: While Miami’s ability to score points is in doubt, their commitment to making things difficult for the Celtics on the other end of the court is not. They have held Boston to just 35% shooting from 3-point land — and the Celtics have not scored more than 103 points in each of the last three games of the series. Spoelstra will no longer be interested in pushing the pace in this series — this needs to be a slog for his team to have a chance. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (505) and the Boston Celtics (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (71) and the St. Louis Blues (72) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Colorado (63-21-7) had won the previous two games in this series before dropping Game Five by a 5-4 score in overtime on Wednesday. St. Louis (55-27-11) now trails in this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blues rallied twice in Game Four — once by a 3-0 margin before tying the game in the third period and then once again after trailing by a 4-3 score with less than a minute left in the game. Head coach Craig Berube has had his team adopt the Vegas Golden Knights’ approach of heavy forechecking with the hopes of wearing down the Avalanche — and the strategy may finally be working. The Over is 18-7-1 in St. Louis’ last 26 games after a win — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, the Blues have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win by one goal — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a victory in overtime. St. Louis is second in the playoffs with a Power Play success rate of 32.4%. They return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and the Over is 24-8-2 in their last 34 home games as an underdog. Now that Jordan Binnington is out for the rest of the postseason, the Blues are stuck with Ville Husson between the pipes. He has a -5.7 goals save below expectation in the playoffs. But if Game Five demonstrated anything, it is that Colorado is not getting quality goaltending from Darcy Kuemper. He allowed five goals on 30 shots. He has a subpar .904 save percentage in the postseason with a -2.5 goals saved above expectation mark. Goaltending is in large part a function of the play of the defense — and the Avalanche suffered a huge blow in the season-ending injury to Samuel Girard who has anchored one of the top-two defensive pairs for years, despite his being 23-years old. Colorado has played 16 of their last 25 games Over the Total after allowing at least four goals in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing a game where both teams scored at least four goals. The Aves have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss to a Central Division rival — and they have played 21 of their last 32 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Colorado has scored 15 goals in the last three games with at least four goals in each game — and they have then played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after scoring at least four goals in three straight games. The Avalanche have also played 4 straight road games Over the Total when the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the Western Conference Semifinals going back to their series last year with Vegas. They have played 5 straight Overs in the playoffs with the opportunity to close out the series. St. Louis has played 9 of their last 12 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 11 playoff games Over the Total when trailing in the series. These two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings Over the Total including 5 straight Overs when playing in St. Louis. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (71) and the St. Louis Blues (72). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (503) and the Golden State Warriors (504) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (61-38) snapped their three-game losing streak in this series with a 119-109 victory on the road against the Warriors as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Golden State (64-33) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss — but they can still end this series tonight given their 3-1 lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks nailed 47% of their shots from behind the arc in Game Four — and their 50% field goal percentage overall was the best mark they posted in this series. But Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points. And in their last 23 games after losing two of their last three games, they have played 17 of these games Under the Total. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road  — and they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. Golden State played their worst game on defense in their last 11 contests by allowing Dallas to make 50% of their shots. But the Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They return home where they have played 14 of their last 23 home games Under the Total with the total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Golden State has also played 9 of their last 13 games in the Western Conference Finals Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have played 27 of their last 44 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Mavericks have played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* NBA Dallas-Golden State TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (503) and the Golden State Warriors (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (567) and the Dallas Mavericks (568) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (64-32) has won six of their last seven games after their 109-100 upset victory on the road against the Mavericks on Sunday. Dallas (60-38) has lost four of their last six games after falling behind 0-3 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors’ zone defense is stifling the Mavericks in this series. Dallas is making only 33.3% of their shots from behind the arc — but they continue to live-or-die by the 3 as they are attempting 52% of their shots from the field from distance. The Mavericks’ lack of size is hurting them in this series as well — they are only pulling down 18.2% of their missed shots. Golden State won the rebounding battle by a 47-33 margin on Sunday — and they have outrebounded Dallas by at least 13 boards in each of the games in this series. The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 boards. And while Golden State has covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. They stay on the road where they have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 4 straight Unders as an underdog. Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Mavericks have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. They have played 4 straight Unders after not covering the point spread in three straight games. Furthermore, Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. The Mavericks stay at home where the Under is 37-13-1 in their last 51 games —and they have played 20 of their last 27 home games when favored. They have also played 25 of their last 32 home games Under the Total when the Total is set in the 210-219.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 100 points — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (567) and the Dallas Mavericks (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (55) and the New York Rangers (56) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (60-24-8) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 3-1 loss on Sunday. New York (57-27-8) has won four of their last six games while winning their first game in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This has been a low-scoring series with no more than four combined goals scored in any one game. The Hurricanes have not scored more than two goals in six of their last eight games. They have played four straight Unders — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing at least four Unders in a row. Carolina has also played 22 of their 33 games on the road Under the Total after a loss to a Metropolitan Division opponent — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after losing by two or more goals to a divisional opponent. The Hurricanes are getting surprisingly great play from goaltender Antti Raanta who has been quite good subbing for the injured Frederik Andersen. He stopped 30 of the 32 shots he faced on Sunday. In nine postseason starts, Raanta has a 1.86 Goals-Against-Average and a .939 save percentage. Carolina is also protecting Raanta by winning face-offs in their own end — they have won 42 of their 66 face-offs (63.6%) that have been in their defensive zone. The Hurricanes’ power play has dried up in the playoffs — especially on the road where they have converted just one time in 19 opportunities in their four playoff road games for a 5.3% conversion rate. New York has played 34 of their last 55 games Under the Total after winning or tying their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total at home after a victory on home ice. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where no more than four combined goals were scored. And they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one goal in their last game. Igor Shesterkin has regained the form that will likely result in him winning the Vezina Trophy — he stopped 43 of the 44 shots he faced on Sunday. Those 43 saves were the most by any goaltender in regulation time in these playoffs. In his last six starts, he has a 2.14 GAA with a .935 save percentage. At home in the regular season, he owned a 1.85 GAA with a .940 save percentage. The Rangers have only allowed one power-play goal at home in the postseason in their 17 occasions where they were playing at a man disadvantage. They have also won 36 of their 65 face-offs (55.4%) in their own zone.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total. Additionally, New York has played 29 of their last 42 games in the second round of the playoffs Under the Total — and the Hurricanes have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. 10* NHL Carolina-NY Rangers ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (55) and the New York Rangers (56). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Calgary Flames (47) and the Edmonton Oilers (48) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Calgary (55-26-10) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 5-3 loss at home to the Oilers on Friday. Edmonton (54-31-6) has won three of their last four games while evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: After scoring scoring nine goals in their three-goal victory in Game One, they only beat Oilers’ goaltender Mike Smith three times on Friday. The Flames are still averaging a healthy 4.34 expected goals per 60 minutes in this series. Their top line of Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm, and Matthew Tkachuk have already combined for 12 points so far in this series. Head coach Darryl Sutter has to assume that his team will need to score four goals to put themselves in a position to beat Edmonton — especially when playing on the road. Calgary is missing perhaps their best defensive player in Chris Tanev who has missed the last three games to injury and remains questionable to return to the series tonight. The Flames are getting up-and-down play from goalie Jacob Markstrom to who led in some soft goals in Game One. He has a .915 save percentage in this postseason. Calgary has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss to a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against an opponent that scored at least five goals in their last game. The Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 playoff games when favored. Edmonton has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games against an opponent that allowed at least five goals in their last game. And in their last 13 home games after scoring at least four goals in two straight games, they have played 11 of these games Over the Total. Connor McDavid has been nearly unstoppable in this postseason with six goals and 14 assists. After scoring once and assisting on three other goals in Game One, he added another goal and assist in Game Two. How he returns home where head coach Jay Woodcroft has the advantage of the last lineup change to take his pick as to what defenders he wants McDavid to go against. Edmonton has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total on home ice. The Oilers have defensive issues of their own with top blue-liner Darnell Nurse not 100% playing through an injury. And goalie Mike Smith has been very shaky in this series with an .880 save percentage.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total — and the Flames have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total on the road and motivated to avenge a loss. 10* NHL Calgary-Edmonton ESPN2 O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Calgary Flames (47) and the Edmonton Oilers (48). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200005) and Brentford (200006). THE SITUATION: Leeds United (W8-D11-L18) needs a result to potentially pass Burnley to avoid relegation after settling for a 1-1 draw at home against Brighton and Hove Albion last Sunday. Brentford (W13-D7-L17) has won seven of their last ten matches after their 3-2 win at Everton last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Leeds has to play aggressively in this match — they trail Burnley by 13 goals in the differential department so they have to assume they need to register a victory to secure the three points since a draw by the Clarets at home against Newcastle would mean a draw in this match would not be enough for the Peacocks. The Whites did generate 2.37 expected goals (xG) against the Seagulls last week — but they surrendered 2.05 xG in the draw. Leeds is one of the worst defensive teams in the English Premier League. They have conceded the most Big Chances that have scoring likelihood of at least 35%. They have conceded 10 goals in their last four matches.  On the road, the Peacocks have allowed at least two goals in six of their last nine contests. They have allowed 2.05 expected goals allowed (xGA) in their 18 previous road matches. Brentford’s attack has been elevated since Christian Eriksen became a regular on the pitch. In those ten matches, the Bees have scored 2.0 Goals-Per-Game — and they rank fourth in Big Chances created during that stretch. Their xG of 1.99 in those ten matches suggests their improved scoring prowess is likely to be sustainable. In their last two matches, Brentford has scored six times with an xG of 5.20.

FINAL TAKE: In the reverse fixture at Leeds on December 5th, both teams scored twice in the 2-2 draw. Expect another higher-scoring contest with Leeds United desperate for the victory which should create scoring opportunities for Brentford in the counter-attack. The Bees will want to play hard in front of their home fans in their final home match in their first season back promoted in the English top flight. They also have a chance to finish in the top-ten with a result. 25* EPL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200005) and Brentford (200006). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (39) and the Calgary Flames (40) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Edmonton (53-31-6) looks to rebound from a 9-6 loss on the road against the Flames on Wednesday. Calgary (55-25-10) has won four of their last five games after taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: 40-year-old goaltender Mike Smith got exposed early by allowing three goals on the first ten shots he faced in Game One. While head coach Jay Woodcroft quickly announced that Smith will get back between the pipes tonight, he has allowed three or more goals in four of his eight starts in the postseason (with seven of those games against a defensive-minded Los Angeles team in Round One). Smith had a middling 2.81 Goals-Against-Average with a .915 save percentage in 29 regular season starts. But the Oilers demonstrated they can be explosive with their offensive attack in this series after scoring four goals on 11 shots during a torrid stretch in the second period when they rallied from a 6-2 deficit. Edmonton has played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and the Over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games against an opponent that allowed at least five goals in their last game. The Oilers scored six times despite failing to score from any of their four Power Play chances. After ranking third in the regular season with a Power Play success rate of 26.0%, they converted on 7 of their 19 Power Plays in the first round against the Kings for a crisp 36.8% success rate. Edmonton led all playoff teams after the first round with 22 goals when playing at even strength five-on-five. They ranked third in the first round with 3.46 expected goals at five-on-five. Calgary has played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. The Over is also 13-6-2 in their last 21 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and the Over is 5-2-2 in their last 9 games against an opponent that allowed at least five goals in their last game. The Flames generated 47 shots in Game One making it the sixth straight game where they peppered the net with at least 32 shots — and they have played 31 of their last 46 games Over the Total after playing at least five straight games where they had at least 30 shot attempts. Calgary is fourth in the postseason with just 2.23 expected goals allowed at five-on-five — but they just played seven games against an offensively-challenged Dallas team. Goalie Jacob Markstrom has a .918 save percentage in these playoffs — but his -0.4 goals saved avoid expectation suggests he is actually underachieving baseline expectations.

FINAL TAKE: Edmonton has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. These two teams averaged 8.25 combined goals scored in their four regular-season meetings — including a 9-5 victory for the Flames in their final regular-season meetings on March 26th. Wednesday’s score may not have been as much of an outlier as it first appeared — and these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other. The Over is also 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings between these teams when playing in Calgary. I think both teams should get to at least 3-3 before the end of regulation tonight. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (39) and the Calgary Flames (40). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (35) and the Colorado Avalanche (36) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (53-25-11) looks to bounce back from their 3-2 loss in overtime on the road against the Avalanche in Game One on Tuesday. Colorado (61-20-6) has won five straight games while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blues have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing their last game on the road by one goal. St. Louis almost stole Game One because of the play of goaltender Jordan Binnington. The veteran stopped 51 of the 54 shots he faced — and he sported +2.11 goals saves above expectation in that game. We are seeing vintage Binnington from his magical 2018-19 season where he led St. Louis to the Stanley Cup championship. Yet the goalie lost his job because of bad play earlier this season — and he had a 3.13 Goals-Against-Average with a .901 save percentage in 37 regular season starts. The Avalanche generated 5.11 expected goals on Tuesday while hitting the post a number of times. It will be hard for the Blues to slow down the Colorado attack. St. Louis is a great offensive team as well that scored 3.66 Goals-Per-Game last round against a Minnesota team that plays great defense. The Blues have three strong forward lines — and nine players scored at least 20 goals in the regular season. But this team needs to generate more offense since beating the Avalanche with only two goals is not likely. Head coach Craig Berube is shaking up his forward lines tonight with Pavel Buchnevich moving to the top line with David Perron and Ryan O’Reilly and Brayden Schenn dropping to the second line to help with the forecheck. Colorado got worn down in the postseason last year against Vegas due to their heavy forechecking — and this will be the Blues’ strategy for success. St. Louis has played two straight Unders — but they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Over is also 13-3-1 in their last 17 games on the road — and they have played 16 of their last 24 road games Over the Total when the number is at 6 or higher. Additionally, the Over is 35-13-3 in the Blues’ last 51 games as a money-line underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total in the playoffs as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: St. Louis has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by just one goal. These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total. 10* NHL Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (35) and the Colorado Avalanche (36). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200161) and Southampton (200162). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W26-D8-L2) returns to their English Premier League schedule after beating Aston Villa by a 2-1 score last Tuesday. Southampton (W9-D13-L14) has lost seven of their last ten matches after their 3-0 loss at Brentford back on May 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool comes off a 1-0 victory against Chelsea in the finals of the FA Cup on Saturday that was resolved via a shootout after 120 minutes of scoreless play. Mo Salah and Virgil Van Dijk left that match early with injuries that keeps them off the eligible roster for this match. Manager Jurgen Klopp has dug deep to his bench for this match — and the result is a starting XI that lacks many of their top attackers. Sadio Mane is also not playing — and their winter transfer, Luis Diaz, is on the bench. The top two attackers are Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino in the starting XI, but both are both limited. Jota is a poacher who has had success when joining Salah and Mane up top — but he is not a lead dog as he demonstrated in his time with Wolverhampton. Firmino appears past his prime for the last two seasons and has scored only nine goals this year. The Reds will also not have Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andre Robertson who play important roles in the attack on the wing. And because Klopp is relying on backups for his back line, expect a more cautious approach. Liverpool needs the win, not a blowout. Southampton only generated 1.32 expected goals in their loss to Brentford ten days ago. While the Saints have little to play for as they sit in 15th place in the EPL table but safe from relegation, don’t be surprised if they relish the opportunity to play spoiler and ruin Liverpool’s title aspirations. After Manchester City’s 2-2 draw at West Ham over the weekend, a Reds victory pulls them within one point with one match to go of the Cityzens. Southampton upset Liverpool at home last year by a 1-0 score — and they limited the Reds to just 1.35 expected goals despite Salah and company being on the pitch. But the Saints have scored only one goal in their last two matches and only four goals in their last six matches. They are not likely to score more than once in this match even against the B-team that Liverpool is sending out.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has seen six of their last seven matches accrue three or less combined goals — and Southampton has seen four of their last five matches generate three combined goals or less. 25* EPL Tuesday USA Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200161) and Southampton (200162). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:37 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (1) and the Calgary Flames (2) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (49-33-6) snapped a two-game losing streak in this series with a 4-2 victory on Friday. Calgary (53-25-10) hosts Game Seven on their home ice at the Scottiabank Saddledome.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Stars head coach Rick Bowness reunited Jason Roberson on the top line with Joe Pavelski and Rope Hintz on Friday — and Hintz scored a goal that Pavelski and Roberson assisted on while adding a second assist in the victory. The final goal was scored on an empty netter. But now back on the road, Calgary head coach Darryl Sutter can match up whatever two defensemen he wants against the top line that features Pavelski with the home team’s right to make the final line change. Dallas has scored only four times in the three previous games in Calgary in this series. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Stars’ last 4 games on the road. Dallas is getting outstanding goaltending from Jake Oettinger in this series. Oettinger has a .954 save percentage in the first six games — and he has a +7.3 Goals Save Above Expectation. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Stars’ last 8 games as an underdog — and the Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Calgary has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by more than one goal. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. The Flames have scored only four goals in their three games at home with three of them scored in their 3-1 victory in Game Five. While Oettinger’s efforts in this series are getting the most attention, Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom has been outstanding as well with a .945 save percentage and +4.1 goals saved above expectation. The Flames have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games in the playoffs when favored. Calgary has also played 7 of their last 10 playoff elimination games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Of the 24 combined goals scored in the six games in this series, only 13 of them have been scored at five-on-five even strength. The Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams when playing in Calgary. 25* NHL ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (1) and the Calgary Flames (2). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (527) and the Phoenix Suns (528) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (59-35) forced a decisive Game Seven in this series with their 113-86 upset victory as a 2-point underdog on Thursday. Phoenix (71-23) has lost three of the last four games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas has steadily improved their defensive play in this series. After allowing the Suns to score 125 Points-Per-Game with a 1.32 Points-Per-Possession scoring rate, they have contained Phoenix to just 90 PPG with 1.05 PPG scoring rate in the last four games of this series. Granted, three of those four games were played in Dallas — but Phoenix scored 110 points in Game Five back at home with a 49.4% field goal percentage. The Suns average 115.5 PPG on their home court — so Dallas’ effort in Game Five was still pretty good. Phoenix began the playoffs by making at least 50% of their shots in their first eight games — including nailing at least 60% of their shots in two contests — while averaging 114.8 PPG during that span. The Mavericks have found a way to slow down Chris Paul who is only scoring 9.3 PPG in his last four games. Jalen Brunson has proven himself a gritty defender against Paul who is struggling against his physicality. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Mavs have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. Dallas made 45.5% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Mavericks have been outrebounded by at least six rebounds in all six games in this series — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. Dallas goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Phoenix has played 12 of their last 16 game Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 7 straight Unders after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Suns have also played 12 straight Unders after a loss on the road, in general. Additionally, Phoenix has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after outrebounding their opponents by at least five boards in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (527) and the Phoenix Suns (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (71) and the Edmonton Oilers (72) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (47-30-11) has lost three of the last five games in this series after their 4-2 loss at home against the Oilers on Thursday. Edmonton (52-30-6) forced the climactic Game Seven with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings have scored 17 goals in this series — but only 12 of these goals have been scored at even strength five-on-five. Even more troubling for the Los Angeles offensive attack, eight of these even-strength goals were scored in two games. In the other four games in this series, the Kings have scored just four goals at five-on-five play. And while Los Angeles has allowed four goals in each of the last two games in this series, the final goal they allowed on Thursday was an empty-netter. The Kings have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least four goals in two straight games. They will benefit from having a veteran goaltender with tons of playoff experience in Jonathan Quick. Quick has a 4-0 record in Game Sevens for the Kings in a career that includes two Stanley Cup titles. In his 91 career starts, Quick has a 2.31 Goals-Against-Average and a .920 save percentage with 10 shutouts. And when playing with just one day of rest in the regular season, Quick posted a 2.18 GAA and a .922 save percentage. Edmonton has played 19 of their last 29 home games Under the Total after a victory against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total at home after a win on the road by more than one goal. And while the Oilers ended a two-game losing streak in this series with their Game Six victory, they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. Edmonton is getting great goaltending from Mike Smith who has a .931 save percentage in this series.

FINAL TAKE: Edmonton plays this Game Seven at less than full strength. Defenseman Darnell Nurse is an offensive-minded blue-liner who remains suspended after his head butt against the Kings’ Phillip Danault. And Leon Draisaitl is questionable with an ankle injury he suffered on Thursday. Draisaitl did not participate in the morning skate and head coach Jay Woodcroft is not commenting on his status tonight. Edmonton would really miss Draisaitl — he is the team’s second-best player behind Connor McDavid who has five goals and three assists in this series. 10* NHL Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (71) and the Edmonton Oilers (72). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:37 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (77) and the Carolina Hurricanes (78) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-30-5) won their third game in the last four games in this series with their 5-2 victory at home on Thursday. Carolina (57-23-8) returns home to Raleigh to host this Game Seven.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bruins took a 2-0 lead entering the third period on Thursday before taking a 4-1 lead just over halfway through the period. The Hurricanes pulled their goalie early in an attempt to get back into the game — and Boston scored an empty netter before Carolina added the final goal with an empty netter. All six games in this series have seen at least six combined goals — and the Total has risen to 6 in the last two games after the first four games had a Total of 5.5. This situation offers us good value for Game Seven. The Bruins have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Overs. Boston has also played 23 of their last 36 games Under the Total after allowing at least two goals in the third period of their last game. The Bruins have taken 37 minor penalties in this series which has helped contribute to five power-play goals by the Hurricanes. But in this Game Seven when the referees tend to swallow their whistles, Boston is not likely to not have their Power Play Kill Unit as active. Jeremy Swagman will once again be between the pipes for the Bruins after stopping 23 of the 25 shots he faced on Thursday. In his four starts in this series after taking over for Linus Ullmark after the first two games, he has a 2.51 Goals-Against-Average and a .913 save percentage. The rookie did his best goaltending on the road during the regular season where he posted a 2.08 GAA and a .926 save percentage in 23 games (22 starts) as compared to his 2.81 GAA and .898 save percentage in 19 games (18 starts at home). Carolina has been held to two goals in three of their last four games since Swayman became the goaltender for the Bruins in this series. They have played 16 of their last 22 games at home Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Hurricanes have also played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total at home when playing their third game in five days. Carolina returns home where they have only given up four goals in the previous four games in this series. Antti Raanta has been outstanding in those three home games as he stopped 74 of the 76 shots he has faced for a .974 save percentage. In his 13 regular-season starts at home, Raanta had a 2.06 GAA and a .924 save percentage. Raanta has been better than I thought he would be in this series playing for the injured Frederik Andersen. Raanta has a 2.46 GAA and a .926 save percentage in his five starts while getting injured in Game Two and not playing in Game Three.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has played 17 of their last 27 games at home Under the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. Boston has played 8 of their last 13 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. 25* NHL 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (77) and the Carolina Hurricanes (78). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (511) and the Philadelphia 76ers (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (60-35) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 120-85 victory against the 76ers as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Philadelphia (57-36) trails 3-2 in this series and seeks to avoid elimination tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami made 53.6% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. The Heat have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory on their home court by 20 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last contest. They are missing Kyle Lowry tonight with his injured hamstring who is one of their most reliable scoring options. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they may have figured something out about the best way to slow down the 76ers’ offense. Head coach Erik Spoelstra had Jimmy Butler defend Tyrese Maxey in Game Four — and the rookie only hit 2 of his 10 shots for 9 points and one assist. Butler is a savvy defender who can take advantage of Maxey’s inexperience. The switch also allowed P.J. Tucker to defend James Harden who followed up his 31-point effort with just 14 points on 5 of 13 shooting. The Sixers need Joel Embiid close to full strength — but it is clear he is nowhere close with him wearing a mask to protect his injured orbital bone and the bum thumb that is limited his shooting touch. Embiid only took 12 shots on Tuesday — and he only attempted one shot from 3-point range. Embiid not being a scoring threat from outside changes the dynamic for the 76ers offense — it is one of the reasons why they are scoring just 99.0 Points-Per-Game in this series. Philly has not scored more than 103 points in this series in four of the five games in this series. The Sixers should play much better on defense tonight as the 53.6% shooting clip they allowed the Heat to generate was the worst defensive effort in their last 26 games. Philadelphia has played 27 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a low by 30 or more points. Moving forward, the 76ers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Philly has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals — and these two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total. 10* NBA Miami-Philadelphia ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (511) and the Philadelphia 76ers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (57-34) has lost two of the last three games in this series with their 116-108 upset loss at home against the Celtics as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Boston (57-33) has won seven of their last nine games while evening this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee went into the fourth quarter in Game Four with a seven-point lead — but they surrendered a whopping 43 points in the final 12 minutes to get outscored by 15 points in the loss. That was the worst defensive effort for the Bucks in their last nine games. Milwaukee still leads all teams in the playoffs in Defensive Efficiency. The first item on head coach Mike Budenholzer’s agenda is to tighten things up on defense again. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Milwaukee misses Khris Middleton who remains out with a knee injury. Not only did he score 20.1 Points-Per-Game and 5.4 Assists-Per-Game in the regular season, but he is the team’s primary ball-handler which is critical for this team because he allows Giannis Antetokounmpo to exert less energy. Given the injury to Middleton, more is being asked of Jrue Holiday -- but he is more effective as a third scoring option rather than the primary complement to Antetokounmpo. Holiday is averaging 23 shot attempts per game in this series — but he is making only 33.6% of his shots and 30.9% of his shots from behind the arc. Brook Lopez becomes the de-facto third scoring option with Middleton out — but while he has scored 17 PPG in the playoffs when playing at home, he is only scoring 4.8 PPG on the road in the playoffs. Moving forward, Milwaukee has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. The Under is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Boston enjoyed their best shooting mark in their last five games with their 50% shooting clip on Monday. They got a huge effort from Al Horford who nailed 11 of his 14 shots from the field including 5 of 7 from behind the arc for 30 points. The Celtics’ 116 points was tied for the highest-scoring game in their last eight contests. But Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after an upset win. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. After leading the NBA in Defensive Efficiency in the regular season, they are third in the playoffs in defense while giving up the second-fewest points in the paint. The Celtics have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 13 games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, Boston has played 11 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home court. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Boston. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (39) and the Edmonton Oilers (40) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (46-29-11) comes off a 4-0 victory at home against the Oilers on Sunday. Edmonton (51-30-5) returns home with this series tied at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kings head coach Todd McClellan found success playing the Phillip Danault forward line against the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl line on Sunday. Danault is one of the best defensive forwards in the game. Los Angeles also got a vintage performance from goaltender Jonathan Quick who stopped all 31 of the shots he faced. The veteran was the team’s starting goaltender for their Stanley Cup championships in 2012 and 2014. After the Oilers scored six and eight goals in Games Two and Three, I think the tenor of this series has changed to be more defensive — and I suspect this may be the last game in this series where the Total is set at 6.5. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Kings’ last 6 games after a win — and they have played 6 straight Unders after shutting out their last opponent. Los Angeles has also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win by three or more goals against a Pacific Division opponent — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after a win by more four or more goals. The Kings were a good defensive team in the regular season where they ranked 11th in the NHL in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes. But scoring will be a problem for this team as they have only scored one power-play goal in their 15 chances in this series. Moving forward, the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games in the playoffs as an underdog — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against Pacific Division foes. Edmonton has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by three or more goals — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home after a loss by four or more goals. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games at home after not scoring more than one goal in their last contest. They are getting great play from goaltender Mike Smith who has a 2.27 Goals-Against-Average and a .942 save percentage in this series. Smith was red-hot last month with a .951 save percentage in April.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 18-8-4 in the last 30 games between these teams when playing in Edmonton. The Oilers have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging a shutout loss to their opponent. 25* NHL 1st Round Pacific Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (39) and the Edmonton Oilers (40). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:37 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Calgary Flames (37) and the Dallas Stars (38) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Calgary (51-24-10) has lost four of their last five games after their 4-2 loss on the road against the Stars on Saturday. Dallas (48-31-6) has won five of their last seven games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We have seen Johnny Gaudreau’s offensive productivity dip in the postseason before. Despite prolific regular-season performances in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons, Calgary flamed out in the first (full) round of the playoffs in both campaigns. The Flames have scored only three times in the first three games of this series. Part of the problem for Calgary is the lack of scoring depth after their top line of Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, and Elias Lindholm. When playing at home in Dallas with the right to make the final line change, head coach Rick Bowness can make sure that his top defensive pair of Miro Heiskanen and Ryan Suter take the ice when the Gaudreau line is playing. Heiskanen has not seen a goal scored against the Stars in his 78 minutes of ice time so far in this series. And while the Gaudreau has scored twice, the other forward lines have scored just once in the first three games of this series. The Flames have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. They are getting great goaltending from Jacob Markstrom who has kept them competitive in all three games in this series despite their lack of scoring. Markstrom has stopped 65 of the 69 shots he has faced in this series for a 1.36 Goals-Against-Average and a .940 save percentage. In his 25 starts on the road this season, Markstrom has a 2.31 GAA and a .929 save percentage. The Under is 6-2-1 in the Flames’ last 9 games on the road — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games as a road favorite. Dallas preceded their victory on Saturday with a 2-0 shutout win in Game Two in Calgary. They have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after going unbeaten in their last two games — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by more than one goal. The Stars have not allowed more than two goals in four straight games and six of their last seven. Rookie goaltender Jake Oettinger loves playing against Pacific Division teams against which he has a 2.24 Goals-Against-Average and a .925 save percentage in 16 games (15 starts). So far in this series, Oettinger has a 1.01 GAA and a .969 save percentage — and he has +3.7 saves above expectation. The Stars have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 9-3-1 in Calgary’s last 13 games in the playoffs when favored — and they have played 11 of their last 17 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series. 25* NHL 1st Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Calgary Flames (37) and the Dallas Stars (38). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (56-32) has won six of their last seven games with their 109-86 victory at home against the Bucks as a 4-point favorite on Tuesday. Milwaukee (56-33) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Celtics in Game Two after they were flat in a 104-89 loss in Game One. One of our arguments was that the Bucks’ four-game winning streak — all without the injured Khris Middleton — was likely to eventually catch up to them. Milwaukee responded to the sense of urgency of losing Middleton by scoring at least 111 points in their next three games against Chicago to end that series in five games. But combating the Bulls defense is not nearly the same challenge as facing the Celtics who led the league in Defensive Rating — and who had just gotten Robert Williams III back from injury. The Bucks only made 41.1% of their shots in Game One despite winning by 12 points. While Milwaukee did shoot better on Tuesday at a 46.6% clip, they missed 15 of their 18 shots from behind the arc. The Bucks should make more of their 3-pointers back at home — but the fact remains that they are only hitting 15 of their 52 shots from downtown for a 28.8% clip. The Celtics defense certainly has something to do with that. Milwaukee was eventually going to miss Middleton’s 20.1 Points-Per-Game and 5.4 Assists-Per-Game.  Both of the first two games in this series have finished Under the Total — and the Bucks have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. Milwaukee’s first order of business will likely be to tighten things up on defense after allowing the Celtics to make 47.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Bucks have played 5 straight Unders when favored — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point favorite. Boston’s 47.5% shooting percentage was their best mark in three games — but that number cloaks their red-hot 20 of 43 (47%) shooting mark from behind the arc in Game Two which will likely drop significantly this afternoon, especially since this is just their third game in 12 days after the mid-series hiatus to accommodate the television schedules. Celtics’ head coach Ime Udoka made a nice adjustment in Game Two by having either Grant Williams or Al Horford double-team Giannis Antetokounmpo out on the perimeter if he moves outside while keeping Williams III on his down low. This is where Milwaukee really misses Middleton to provide help in the offense and be the primary ball-carrier for much of the game. Antetokounmpo missed three of his four shots from behind the arc. Jrue Holiday and him accounted for 47 of the 73 shots the team took in Game Two — and the duo accounting for more than 64% of the team’s shots is not the balance that head coach Mike Budenholzer wants. And now Boston gets back Marcus Smart who has been upgraded to probable after missing Game Two with a thigh injury. Having the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year defending Holiday complicates matters for the Bucks playing without Middleton. The Celtics got a surprising 21 points from Grant Williams — he combined with Jaylen Brown to nail 12 of their combined 19 shots from behind the arc. That is not likely to happen again. Boston has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after no more than 195 combined points were scored in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals — and the Under is 18-6-2 in the Bucks’ last 26 games in the playoffs when they are the favorite. 10* NBA Boston-Milwaukee ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (75) and the Colorado Avalanche (76) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Nashville (45-31-7) looks to rebound from their 7-2 loss in the opening game of this series. Colorado (57-20-6) snapped a two-game losing streak while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Entering the postseason, I wanted to attack these 6.5 totals with Under plays ahead of the market before the reality of playoff hockey generates lower scoring games — but here I am endorsing a 25* play with an Over despite the number being at 6.5. Well, these are both high-scoring teams — and the Predators have a serious problem with their goaltending situation given the injury to Juuse Saros. David Rittich did not last the first period on Tuesday as he allowed in five goals on 13 shots. Rookie Connor Ingram played better by stopping 30 of the 32 shots he faced which were enough for head coach John Hynes to give him the nod as the starter tonight. It’s one thing to “only” give up two more goals entering a game where his team was already trailing by five goals — it is quite another to be facing the pressure of starting in a hostile environment tonight in a brand new game. In his three regular-season starts, Ingram had a 3.71 Goals-Against-Average and a .879 save percentage. He is facing perhaps the most potent scoring attack in the NHL which generates 4.3 Goals-Per-Game when playing at home at Ball Arena. The Avalanche rank sixth in the league with a Power Play unit that has a 24.3% success rate. The Predators give up 4.78 penalties per game which are the most in the league. Nashville only wins this game by scoring their share of goals. They are led by Matt Duchene and Filip Forsberg who both found the back of the net 40 times. They also boast a top-five Power Play unit in the NHL. The Predators have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss by three or more goals. They have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road after playing a game where at least eight combined goals were scored. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs after allowing at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. On the road, the Over is 36-16-1 in their last 53 games — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with the total set at 6 or higher. And in their last 8 road games, Nashville has played 7 of these games Over the Total. Additionally, the Predators have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record — and they have played 22 of their last 27 games Over the Total against Central Division rivals. Colorado has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home after a victory against divisional opponents — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after a win by three or more goals against a Central Division foe. The Avalanche have now played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Colorado is vulnerable on defense — they have allowed 3.6 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. Darcy Kuemper stopped 23 of the 25 shots he faced on Tuesday — but in his ten starts last month, he registered a lukewarm 3.28 GAA and a .910 save percentage.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight Overs — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Colorado. Nashville has also played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by two or more goals. The Predators can still feel very good about themselves with an upset win tonight — but they can only do that by pulling out a high-scoring game. 25* NHL 1st Round Central Division Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (75) and the Colorado Avalanche (76). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (224213) and Real Madrid (224214) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Manchester City won the first leg of this semifinals showdown with a 4-3 victory at home at Etihad Stadium last Tuesday. Real Madrid hosts this rematch at their Santiago Bernabeu Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City is in potent offensive form with all of their attackers healthy and contributing. The Cityzens come off a 4-0 victory at Leeds United in the English Premier League on Saturday. Man City has scored 16 goals during their current four-game winning streak across all competitions. Manager Pep Guardiola deploys many starting XI lineups that lack a traditional number striker — and they still score plenty of goals with effective midfielders like Kevin DeBruyne, Phil Foden, and Raheem Sterling. But what has helped the Cityzens in this recent surge is the sudden great form of one of the true number nines on the roster in Gabriel Jesus. The Brazilian has scored seven goals in his last five starts to offer this side the finisher up top that may be the final piece of the puzzle Guardiola needs to pull off the double of winning a Champions League and the EPL title. Jesus loves playing against Real Madrid — he has three goals with an assist in his three career matches against them. But while the attack is clicking on all cylinders, the Man City defense is not playing at its most optimal level. After Leeds United generated 1.06 expected goals (xG), the Cityzens have allowed four of their last seven opponents to produce at least 1.0 xG — and that does not include the 3-2 loss to Liverpool in the Semifinals of the FA Cup (where expected goals data is not tracked). Guardiola is dealing with an injured backline that is missing John Stones while Kyle Walker and Nathan Are are dealing with knocks. He will have to turn to Oleksandr Zinchenko at right-back who has been a liability on defense in the past. Joao Cancelo returns to the pitch after being suspended for the first match — and while he is a great defender, he also provides the Cityzens a threat in the attack. Real Madrid has won three of their last four matches after a 4-0 victory against Espanyol on Saturday. Los Blancos have scored 13 goals in their last four matches — but they have allowed six goals as well over that span. Manager Carlo Ancelotti is also dealing with injuries on his backline with David Alaba dealing with a knock. He may be available today but he has yet to return to training. The hopes of this Real Madrid side rest on the shoulders of attacker Karim Benzema who is on fire right now. Benzema scored twice in the first leg last week — and he leads all players in the Champions League with 14 goals in the competition. Los Blancos have scored at least one goal in every one of their home matches in the Champions League going back to December of 2018 — and they have to beat the Cityzens by one goal to force extra time to advance to the Semifinals.

FINAL TAKE: The pace was frenetic in the first meeting between these sides last week with Man City generating 3.08 xG and Real Madrid countering with 1.66 xG. Los Blancos have a -4.43 net expected goals differential in their last four matches in the Champions League — but be careful reading too much into that. With elite players like Benzema, Vinicius Junior, and Luka Modric, they have the talent that literally produces the positive outlier results from which expected goals data measuring league-wide averages derive. It’s kinda like expecting the Golden State Warriors to stop overperforming relative to the league (last night being an exception) with their 3-point shooting — the Regression Gods are not coming for the players that set the standard from which other player’s expected regression is measured. Another higher-scoring contest is likely. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (224213) and Real Madrid (224214). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (59-28) has won three of their last four games with their 111-109 win at against the Timberwolves as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Minnesota (49-39) hopes to stave off elimination tonight trailing 3-2 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This series has been trending to lower-scoring games. After Game One saw 247 combined points scored, the Total moved up from a closing number in the 238 range for the first game to a closing Total in the 240 range. Game Two saw only 220 combined points scored before Game Three saw the series-low of 199 points. Game Four’s final score upticked back to 237 combined points (thanks for a furious scoring pace in the final minute). Game Five’s final score dropped to 220. Memphis is finding success in this series by winning the battle on the boards. After outrebounding the Timberwolves by a 53-42 margin on Tuesday, the Grizzlies have outrebounded them by at least five boards in the last four games. Memphis has then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last opponent by at least five rebounds in fouur straight games. The Grizzlies go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road when favored. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. After exploding 130 points in Game One, the Timberwolves are averaging only 104.8 PPG in the last four games in this series on 42.5% shooting from the field. They have scored more than 109 points just once in these last four games — and they have not cleared 96 points twice in the last four. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. And while the Grizzlies outrebound their opponents by +7.0 Rebounds-Per-Game, Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who outrebound their opponents by at least 5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game. The T-Wolves have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at Minnesota. 25* NBA Round One Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (567) and the Toronto Raptors (568) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (54-33) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 103-88 loss at home against the Raptors as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. Toronto (50-37) trails in this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers are not as potent on offense since Joel Embiid injured his right thumb on his shooting hand. Philadelphia had a 61.5% effective field goal percentage before the injury — but they have a collective 48.1% effective field goal percentage as a team ever since after making only 38.3% of their shots on Monday. Embiid still scored 20 points in the loss in Game Five — but he cannot carry the team on offense and his outside shot is now limited. He missed all four of his shots from behind the arc in Game Five and his diminished threat as an outside shooter disrupts the team’s spacing on the court. The 76ers’ route to victory tonight is to play better defense after allowing the Raptors to make 51.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. They go back on the road where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games — and the Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia has also played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Sixers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Toronto enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 13 contests after nailing 51.2% of their shots. But the Raptors have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory as a road underdog in their last game. They have also played 30 of their last 39 games Under the Total after winning their last two games against Atlantic Division rivals. And while they have only covered the point spread in two of their last seven games, they have then played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Raptors will likely be without Fred VanVleet once again tonight. His absence helps Toronto on defense where he is a liability — but he is perhaps their most reliable scorer. They have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total when playing in Toronto. 25* NBA 1st Round Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (567) and the Toronto Raptors (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (59) and the Seattle Kraken (60). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-27-10) has won four games in a row after their 4-2 victory against Anaheim on Saturday. Seattle (26-47-6) is on a three-game losing streak after their 5-2 loss at Vancouver last night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings have clinched a spot in the Western Conference playoffs — but they are still jockeying for seeding. This is a defensive-first team that will want to maintain that focus in the final days of regular season before the intensity from the playoffs amps up. Los Angeles has seen six or fewer combined goals scored in eight of their last eleven games. They are only scoring 2.85 Goals-Per-Game in their last 13 contests. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Kings’ last 6 games after a win — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Jonathan Quick is the likely goaltender tonight for the Kings. The veteran is playing his best hockey entering the postseason — he has a 2.11 Goals-Against-Average in his seven starts this month. In his last four starts, he has a .944 save percentage — and he has not allowed more than two goals in any of these four games. They hit the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. The Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a loss by three or more goals. The Kraken have seen six or less fewer combined goals scored in seven of their last eleven games. They are likely to turn to Chris Dredger between the pipes tonight. He has allowed two or less goals in four of his last seven starts. He also has played quite well in his two previous starts against Kings against which he stopped 55 of the 58 shots he faced fora  .948 save percentage. This expansion team has been a solid defensive team that ranks ninth in the NHL in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes when playing at five-on-five full strength. Seattle has played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles will be motivated to avenge a 6-1 loss at home to the Kraken on March 28th — and they have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than one goal. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (59) and the Seattle Kraken (60). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (553) and the Milwaukee Bucks (554) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Chicago (47-39) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing by a 119-95 score at home to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (54-32) has a 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago lost their second-best offensive player yesterday when Zack LaVine once again tested positive for COVID — he is out for tonight’s game. The Bulls will also be without Alex Caruso who is in the concussion protocol. Chicago will miss Caruso’s contributions on defense — but the net effect of losing both players is a net loss on the offensive end of the court. As it is, the Bulls are only scoring 94.2 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs which is the second-worst of all the teams in the first round of the playoffs. They are making just 39.8% of their shots in this series which is generating only 94.0 Points-Per-Game. Chicago has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home to a Central Division rival. And while they have lost seven of their last nine games, they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Now they go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Bulls have played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total. And in their last 20 games against division opponents, Chicago has played 16 of these contests Under the Total while scoring just 102.4 PPG in those 20 games — but allowing only 105.1 PPG. Milwaukee has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points on the road. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Bucks will continue to playing without Khris Middleton who scored 20.1 PPG and averaged 5.4 Assists-Per-Game. Milwaukee has stepped up to nail 43.2% of their 74 shots from behind the arc in their last two games. The Bucks shoot 36.4% from 3-point range at home — so the Regression Gods are likely to make a visit. Milwaukee made 52.3% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting mark in their last seven contests. The Under is 15-5-2 in the Bucks’ last 22 games in the playoffs when favored. They have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total against Central Division rivals.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight Unders when playing in Milwaukee. Chicago has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road when avenging a 20-point loss at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points. 25* NBA Central Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (553) and the Milwaukee Bucks (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (539) and the Miami Heat (540) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (46-42) has lost three of their last four games after their 110-86 loss at home to the Heat as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Miami (56-30) has a 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss to a Southeast Division rival — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss to a divisional opponent. Miami has stymied Trae Young and this Atlanta offense that likes to get most of their points in the half-court. The Hawks led the NBA by scoring 101.1 points per 100 possessions in the half-court in the regular season — but they are scoring just 92.1 points per 100 possessions in the postseason which is second-to-last of all sixteen teams that made the playoffs. The Heat are defending Young with double and triple teams and preventing him from driving into the paint. Young has taken more shots from 3-point land than inside the arc in this series — and his teammates are not offering enough help. Bogdan Bogdanovic is only making 23.6% of his 3s in this series and Kevin Huerter is hitting just 27.2% of his 3s. Now Atlanta goes on the road where they have played 8 games Under the Total as an underdog. Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. They will be without Jimmy Butler tonight who is out with knee inflammation. Butler has been outstanding in this series by scoring 30.5 Points-Per-Game with the Heat posting an Offensive Rating of 131.2 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. His absence complicates matters for this team when they have the ball since point guard Kyle Lowry is out as well. Without either player, head coach Erik Spoelstra really only has Gabe Vincent as a reliable ball-handler and initiator of the offense. Miami has played 4 straight Unders when favored — and they have played 33 of their last 45 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight Unders. With Butler out and the Heat stymying the Hawks’ half-court, expect another lower-scoring game. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (539) and the Miami Heat (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (535) and the Dallas Mavericks (536) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (51-35) evened this series at 2-2 with their 100-99 victory against the Mavericks as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Dallas (54-32) has still won six of their last eight games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. Dallas has also played 27 of their last 42 games at home Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, the Mavericks have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last eight games, they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Dallas goes back home where the Under is 47-20-1 in their last 68 games — and they have played 20 of their last 31 home games Under the Total when favored. The Mavericks have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Utah has seen the Under go 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 49 of their last 71 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less. They hit the road again where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Dallas.

FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss of three points or less. 20* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (535) and the Dallas Mavericks (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (517) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (518) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (58-27) won their second straight game in this series with their 104-95 victory against the Timberwolves as a 2-point road favorite on Thursday. Minnesota (48-38) blew a 26-point lead in the game and now trail 2-1 in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Taylor Jenkins has made an important adjustment in this series which should generate lowering-scoring games. After the Timberwolves scored 130 points in their 13-point upset victory, Jenkins only played big man Steven Adams for less in three minutes in Game Two with the Grizzlies holding Minnesota to 96 points. Adams did not play in Game Three. Karl Anthony-Towns was too much for Adams to defend — but Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke have been a handful for Towns to handle. Towns scored only 8 points on Thursday while taking a mere four shots from the field. The T-Wolves scored just 12 points in the fourth quarter in their historic collapse which was the biggest blown lead in loss in the history of the NBA playoffs. Memphis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 105 points. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after holding their last two opponents to no more than 100 points. The Grizzlies are a very good defensive team who ranked sixth in the NBA by holding their opponents to scoring just 108.9 points per 100 possessions — and they are better on that end of the court when benching Adams (while losing his significant offensive contributions). Memphis is fourth in Offensive Rating this season — but they score -2.0 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road at a 112.3 rate, dropping to tenth in the league. The Grizzlies have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They have also played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, Memphis has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Minnesota is seventh in the NBA by scoring at a 113.8 points per 100 possession rate — but their offensive efficiency at home drops to 111.8 points per 100 possession rate which is 19th in the league. The Timberwolves are scoring just 95.5. Points-Per-Game in the last two games in this series — and now their leading scorer, Anthony Edwards, might be slowed with a knee injury. Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The pace has slowed down in this series — and that is likely to continue. Memphis averages 94 shots per game — but they attempted only 83 shots on Thursday after taking 86 and 92 shots in the first games in this series. Minnesota averages 91 shots per game — but after taking 90 shots in Game One with Adams still in the rotation, the T-Wolves took only 76 shots in Game Two and 85 shots in Game Three. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games in Minnesota Under the Total. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (517) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (505) and the New Orleans Pelicans (506) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-19) comes off a 125-114 loss at home to the Pelicans as a 9.5-point favorite on Tuesday. New Orleans (39-47) evened this series at 1-1 with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns will miss Devin Booker who is out for at least two weeks with the Grade One hamstring injury he suffered in Game Two. Booker is the team’s best offensive player with a 26.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average with a 47% shooting percentage and a 38% clip from behind the arc. He also average 4.8 Assists-Per-Game. Phoenix scores 10 fewer points per 100 possessions without Booker on the court — and, surprisingly, they hold their opponents to 5.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when Booker is not playing. As it is, the Under is 20-5-1 in the Suns’ last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss. They have also played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Under is also 15-5-1 in their last 21 games when playing with two days of rest. Phoenix goes on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. The Under is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 34-15-2 in their last 51 games after a point spread victory. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. And in their last 8 games played with two days of rest, the Pelicans have played 7 of these games Under the Total. New Orleans has allowed the Suns to nail 50% of their shots in both of the first two games in this series. They have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after posting a defensive field goal percentage of at least 50% in their last two games. The Pelicans are dominating the boards — they have out-rebounded Phoenix by 20 and 10 boards in Games One and Two. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning the rebounding battle by at least 10 rebounds in their last two games.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when avenging a loss in a road game. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (505) and the New Orleans Pelicans (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Chicago Bulls (504) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (52-32) looks to rebound from a 114-110 upset loss at home to the Bulls as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday. Chicago (47-37) evened this series at 1-1 with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: With the series-ending MCL strain to Khris Middleton on Wednesday, the Bucks lost their second-best player who made significant contributions on both ends of the court. But Middleton’s impact will probably be felt more on offense. Middleton is the chief ball-handler for Milwaukee — especially with George Hill still out with his abdominal injury — and he is the team’s second-leading scorer with 20.1 Points-Per-Game scoring average. He also dishes out 5.4 Assists-Per-Game. Without Middleton, the Bucks lack a reliable scorer to complement Giannis Antetokounmpo — especially when playing on the road. The Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Milwaukee has also played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Under is 4-0-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 playoff games when they are favored. And in their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Milwaukee has played 15 of these games Under the Total. Chicago has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bulls are only posting a 100.0 Offensive Rating in this series — but they have held the Bucks to just a 101.5 Offensive Rating. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. Milwaukee has also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss where they were a home favorite laying at least 10 points. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Chicago Bulls (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (545) and the Golden State Warriors (546) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (48-35) looks to rebound from their 123-107 loss in the opening game of this best-of-seven series. Golden State (54-29) has won six games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors made 52.4% of their shots on Saturday while nailing 16 of their 35 shots from behind the arc. Stephen Curry returned from injury to play over 21 minutes and score 16 points. But it was Jordan Poole who led the way with 30 points on 9 of 13 shooting. Overall, Golden State scored a scorching 129.4 points per 100 possession rate. With Curry rejoining Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Poole, the Warriors are a dynamic scoring team. But it is too much to expect consistent performances like what they did to the Nuggets on Saturday. The Regression Gods are likely coming for this team tonight. While they are a great outside shooting team, a clip more like their 37.2% shooting percentage from behind the arc when playing at home is more likely tonight. And while Curry is a cheat code who unlocks scoring opportunities for others when he is not knocking down 3-pointers, Golden State scored at a 114.1 points per 100 possession rate with him on the court this season — so Game One’s numbers were definitely a high-end outlier. But the Warriors should play better on the other end of the court after allowing the Nuggets to make 46.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven games. Golden State is second in the NBA by holding their opponents to 107.6 points per 100 possessions — and much of those numbers were generating without an injured Draymond Green. They held their opponents to more than 3 fewer points per 100 possessions with Green on the court in the regular season. The Warriors were also third in the NBA by limiting their opponents to scoring at just a 91.2 points per 100 possession rate in the half-court where Denver does most of their damage via Nikola Jokic. Golden State has played 35 of their last 57 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — including 14 of their last 21 games after a win by 10 or more points. The Warriors have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning six in a row. And in their last 23 games when playing for just the second time in five days, they have played 17 of these games Under the Total. In their last five games at home in Chase Arena, Golden State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They have also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 220 or higher. Denver should play better on defense as the 52.4% field goal percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Nuggets have issues on defense — but their starting five does hold their opponents to just 106.5 points per 100 possessions which would rank second in the league if compared to overall regular season averages. Perhaps head coach Michael Malone will adjust by shortening his bench even more. The Warriors made Jokic work very hard on both ends of the court on Saturday. He scored 25 points but he also took 25 shots from the field. Green will continue to make his life difficult. While he did not play in any of the four games in the regular season between these two clubs, Green had held Jokic to just 15.7 Points-Per-Game with a 47.9% field goal percentage in his previous 18 games in his career to defend him. The Nuggets lack a reliable secondary scorer to complement Jokic with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. still out with injuries. Denver only got to the rim for 20% of their shots in Game One — the Warriors may be able to reduce Denver to mostly a jump-shooting team. The Nuggets score 2.1 fewer PPG on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: While Game One finished Over the Total, these two teams have still played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games in Golden State Under the Total. 25* NBA Monday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (545) and the Golden State Warriors (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (531) and the Phoenix Suns (532) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (38-46) has won seven of their last ten games after their 105-101 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1.5-point on Friday. Phoenix (64-18) has lost four of their last six games after their 116-109 upset loss as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans have proven they can ramp up their intensity on defense in the postseason after holding their two opponents in the Play-In Tournament to just 40.9% shooting which has resulted in just 102.0 Points-Per-Game. New Orleans has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 33-16-2 in their last 51 games after a point spread victory. The Pelicans stay on the road to begin this series where the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. New Orleans has also played 25 of their last 34 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Phoenix allowed the Kings to nail 52.6% of their shots last week with their key players resting — that was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Under is 19-6-1 in the Suns’ last 26 games after a straight-up loss. Phoenix has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. The Suns play outstanding defense — they rank third in the NBA by holding their opponents to just 106.6 points per 100 possessions. They host this game where they have played 4 straight Unders when favored. They have also played 25 of their last 40 games Under the Total in the with the Total set in the 220s. Additionally, the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on March 15th with the Suns winning in New Orleans by a 131-115 score as a 4.5-point favorite. The Pelicans have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total when playing on the road attempting to avenge a home loss — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games on the road when playing with revenge from a  loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (531) and the Phoenix Suns (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (511) and the Los Angeles Clippers (512) and Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (37-46) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 113-103 win against San Antonio as a 5.5-point favorite in their first play-in game on Wednesday. Los Angeles (42-41) saw their five-game winning streak end with a 109-104 loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog in their first play-in game on Wednesday. The winner of this game plays at Phoenix in Game One of the Western Conference Quarterfinals on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 33-16-2 in their last 51 games after a point spread victory. Now New Orleans goes on the road where the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Los Angeles held the Timberwolves to just 43.4% shooting which was the fifth straight game that they have not allowed an opponent to shoot better than 44.2% from the field. The intensity of jockeying for playoff positioning along with the return of Paul George has resulted in the Clippers raising their level of play on defense. They have won six of their last eight games — and they have then played 7 of their last 11 contests Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. And while this is just their sixth game in the last 14 days, Los Angeles has played 28 of their last 42 games Under the Total when playing for not more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. The Clippers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. With the news this afternoon that Paul George is out after his positive COVID test, the Under remains a solid 10* play. George led the team in scoring on Wednesday with 34 points on 10 of 24 shooting — and he nailed 6 of 12 shots from behind the arc. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (511) and the Los Angeles Clippers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (561) and the New Orleans Pelicans (562). THE SITUATION: Golden State (52-29) has won four straight games after their 100-94 victory as a 7-point favorite yesterday. New Orleans (36-45) had their two-game winning streak snapped yesterday in a 141-114 loss at Memphis as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams made the Western Conference playoffs — maintaining (or establishing) their intensity on defense should be important as they look forward to the postseason. The Warriors are dialed-in on the defensive end of the court after holding their last five opponents to just 41.4% shooting which has resulted in them allowing just 102.0 Points-Per-Game. Golden State needs to win tonight to ensure they are the third seed in the Western Conference — with the advantage of avoiding a potential showdown with Phoenix until the conference finals. The Warriors have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Golden State had covered the point spread in their previous four games — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. On the road, the Under is 22-9-1 in their last 32 games when favored — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Golden State has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. New Orleans played their worst defensive game in their last 14 games after allowing the Grizzlies to nail 58.9% of their shots yesterday. It was the third straight game where they allowed their opponent to make at least 51.3% of their shots. The Pelicans have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to score at least 125 points — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after their last two opponents made at least 50% of their shots. New Orleans is locked in as the ninth seed and one of the Play-In Tournament games — but this is no time to not worry about improving their play on defense. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. The Pelicans have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Brandon Ingram is questionable tonight with a hamstring injury — and if he does not play, New Orleans will be without one of their top two scorers.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing in the Big Easy. 10* NBA Golden State-New Orleans TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (561) and the New Orleans Pelicans (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Senators (11) and the New York Rangers (12). THE SITUATION: New York (46-20-6) has won two straight games and six of their last eight contests after their 3-0 shutout victory against Pittsburgh on Thursday. Ottawa (26-38-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped with their 3-2 loss to Nashville on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have seen no more than six combined goals scored in eight of their last twelve games. They have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a victory. While the team improved their depth at the trade deadline with several additions to the team, New York still ranks 28th in the league in five-on-five scoring. Goalie Igor Shesterkin is the difference-maker for this team. He stopped all 30 shots he faced against the Penguins for that shutout. He has not allowed more than three goals in five straight starts. Shesterkin leads the league with a .935 save percentage — and he also leads the NHL in saves above expected saves rate. He thrives when playing at home in Madison Square Garden where he has a 1.89 Goals-Against-Average and a .940 save percentage in 25 starts. The Rangers have played 13 of their last 18 home games Under the Total when favored. They have also played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total against fellow Eastern Conference opponents — and the Under is 26-10-1 in their last 37 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. Ottawa has played 13 of the last 18 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. The Senators are just 22nd in the NHL in expected goals when playing at five-on-five even strength — and they will be missing two of their offensive threats with Tim Stutzle and Drake Batherson out for tonight’s game with injuries. But Ottawa remains a feisty opponent given their physical defensive play. They are 12th in the league with their Power Play Kill Unit. They are also getting outstanding play from Anton Forsberg who will be between the pipes tonight. He has a .925 save percentage in his last nine starts while not allowing more than three goals in all nine games. In 19 starts on the road, Forsberg has a 2.42 Goals-Against-Average and a .925 save percentage. The Under is 10-3-1 in Ottawa’s last 14 road games as an underdog. Additionally, the Under is 18-7-1 in the Senators’ last 26 games as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Under is also 19-7-1 in their last 27 games against Eastern Conference opponents — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams from the Metropolitan Division.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played seven of their last eight encounters with no more than six combined goals scored. The Under is 19-6-4 in the last 29 games played between these two teams at Madison Square Garden. 25* NHL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Senators (11) and the New York Rangers (12). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (977) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (978) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: San Diego (0-0) looks to improve from a 79-83 record last season. Arizona (0-0) was 52-110 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres are favored for this Opening Day contest — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when favored going back to last season. They have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total when the favorite. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the number in the 9-10.5 range — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with the number in the 9-10.5 range. First-year manager Bob Melvin gives the ball to Yu Darvish who had an 8-11 record with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. The 35-year-old right-hander enjoyed a great first half of the season — but he was saddled with a 6.16 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP to close the year while he dealt with hip and back issues. The best-case scenario is the offseason has allowed him to heal and regain his early-season form. Maybe … but he is giving up too many gopher balls in the second half of his career. He surrendered 1.52 home runs per nine innings last season. He also did his best work at home in the spacious Petco Park where he had a 3.38 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in 17 starts. But in his 13 starts on the road, Darvish had a 5.54 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .244. The Padres have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with Darvish pitching and priced as a money-line favorite of -125 or higher. The Diamondbacks ended last season with the Over going 15-5-1 in their last twenty-one games against right-handed starting pitchers, and the over was 4-1-1 in their last six games when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers.

Arizona has seen the Over go 22-8-1 in their last 31 games when the oddsmakers install them as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games at home when the dog. The Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games with the Total set from 9 to 10.5 — and the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games at home. They counter with Bumgarner who was 7-10 with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. The good news for the 32-year-old lefty is that his velocity was up in spring training. But that was the same story we heard last year — and his strikeout rate of 20.2% was still below the league average. This is a pitcher on the decline — and the underlying numbers validate his front-line numbers as his SIERA and xFIP both projected an ERA of 4.57 and 4.85 last year. His numbers were slightly worse when pitching at home last year where he had a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in 12 starts as opposed to his 1.13 WHIP and .233 opponent’s batting average in 14 starts on the road. The Diamondbacks have played 8 straight games at home Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range.

FINAL TAKE: The Over was 3-0-1 in Arizona’s last 4 games against teams from the NL West — and San Diego has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total against divisional rivals. 10* MLB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (977) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (978) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.