This is a 4* play on SAC.

Portland is expected to finish at or near the bottom of the Western Conference this season, and with two starters including their leading scorer out of the lineup for this road game, they could get blown out. Sure the Kings are without De'Aaron Fox, but they still have the depth and talent advantage as well as home court.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MISST.

The Bulldogs are bringing back leading score Tolu Smith for his senior season, and he is joined by seniors Shakeef Moore, Cameron Mathews, Dashawn Davis and DJ Jeffries. That's right, their entire starting five are back, and they are all seniors. That kind of experience should prove to much for an Arizona State team that lost the majority if it's starters, and has brought in new recruits and transfers that might take time to start to gel.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on USC.

The Wildcats lost both their top two scorers and their starting PG to the NBA, and they are going to struggle to replace Marquis Nowell. K-State is projected to finish in the bottom half of the BIG12 while USC is expected to contend for a PAC12 Championship. The Trojans are bringing back 5th year senior Boogie Ellis, and he is joined in the back court by McDonalds All American Isaiah Collier. This USC squad should have an edge in both talent and experience, and the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is familiar territory, as the venue for the PAC12 Tournament last year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on PHI.

The Sixers sent James Harden out of town, and they are ready to move on. The Suns were talking big after acquiring Bradley Beal, but he's yet to play a game. They have everything riding on their BIG 3, and they might be down to 1 here in Philly as Booker is questionable. Ultimately a lack of depth should be what prevents the Suns from winning a road game against a well balanced contender on the road.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Nuggets have gone under this number in all of their games this season, and they have gone over this number just once in their last eight games versus Dallas. Opponents have averaged just 103.6 points per game so far, and the Nuggets did rank in the Top 10 in opponent scoring average last season. Dallas is 4-0 and the Mavs have averaged 222.5 points in those games. They have had a soft schedule so far, and this Game at Denver should be a far bigger challenge for them.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on NYK.

I had the Knicks in last night's win in Cleveland, and often I look to fade a team that wins Game 1 of a home and home series. This is a different situation all together though, as the Cavs are banged up, and Donovan Mitchell was a game time decision to play with a hamstring injury last night. He played, but will he be good to go in the second game of a back to back? Here is what I said yesterday: "The Cavs have some key injuries, and Donovan Mitchell is expected to be a game time decision tonight. If he plays, he's dealing with a sore hamstring that is likely to affect his performance. Starting PG Darius Garland and Center Jared Allen are both out with injuries. The Knicks are 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings versus the Cavs, and they have won three of their last four at Cleveland. The Knicks have lost two of three to start the season, but they have been competitive even in those losses. At full strength, this spot looks ideal for the Knicks to get back into the win column."

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the NYK.

The Cavs have some key injuries, and Donovan Mitchell is expected to be a game time decision tonight. If he plays, he's dealing with a sore hamstring that is likely to affect his performance. Starting PG Darius Garland and Center Jared Allen are both out with injuries. The Knicks are 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings versus the Cavs, and they have won three of their last four at Cleveland. The Knicks have lost two of three to start the season, but they have been competitive even in those losses. At full strength, this spot looks ideal for the Knicks to get back into the win column.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

These teams went under in three of four meetings last season, and the total for tonight's game is far higher than it was in any of those games. Denver ranked 5th in opponent's scoring average last season, and three games in they rank 5th in that category so far this year. The Jazz have gone over in each of their first three games, but they faced opponents that were willing to pay at their desired pace. On the road at Denver, we expect the Nuggets to dictate the pace and style of this game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on SAC.

The young Kings pushed the Warriors to the brink in last year's playoffs, and while the Dubs are a year older, the Kings are only getting better. Sacramento was the highest scoring team in the NBA last year, and they have picked up right where they left off by scoring 130 in their season opening win over Utah. The addition of Euro League MVP Sasha Vuzenkov isn't going to hurt. The Lakers looked old in their opening night loss on the road in Denver, and I think they will look old here against the Kings in Sacramento.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SAC.

Lets not overreact to the Warriors losing at home on Opening Night to a shorthanded Phoenix team. Maybe they missed Draymond Green, maybe Chris Paul needs more time to work his win into a new team. Regardless of any of that, following up with a road game at Sacramento is a tough spot. The younger Kings pushed them to the brink in last year's playoffs, and while the Dubs are a year older, the Kings are only getting better. Sacramento was the highest scoring team in the NBA last year, and they have picked up right where they left off by scoring 130 in their season opening win over Utah. The addition of Euro League MVP Sasha Vuzenkov isn't going to hurt.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Sixers ranked 3rd in the NBA in scoring defense last season, and they failed to reach the total in three of their four games against the Bucks. These teams played last October in the first meeting of the season, and Milwaukee won that game by a score of 90-88. Both these teams averaged over 115 points per game last season, but it might be a bit too early in the season to expect a well oiled machine on offense. I expect Philly to muddy it up a bit, and with Damian Lillard playing his first game for the Bucks they might still be learning how to gel.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Spurs ranked dead last in the NBA in opponents scoring average, allowing over 121 points per game. They have gone over in six straight versus Texas rivals Dallas, and during that span they have done plenty of scoring in their own right. San Antonio scored an average of 123 points in their last six meetings versus the Mavs. San Antonio did plenty of scoring in the pre-season, with 120 or more in three of their five games. We might see another shootout in Texas tonight.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on GSW.

Sure KD is running his mouth about an unstoppable big three? Did he learn nothing in last year's playoffs? A lack of depth killed the Suns last season, and their bench looks even thinner as we get ready for this season. Two of their big three are listed as questionable, although they both probably play. This is a revenge spot for veteran PG Chris Paul, and while I don't know if it works out long term for the Dubs.... I expect him to play well in this game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Finals are expected to come to a conclusion tonight, and if that's the case there is a trend of low scores in closeout games in the NBA Finals over the last 10 seasons. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 closeout games in the Finals, and the majority of those games went under 200 combined points. The Heat have failed to score 100 points in three of four games in this series, and they are averaging 99 points per game in their last eight in the playoffs. Seven of those games went under the total.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The total for Game 1 was sitting at 219, and it has been trending lower every game. Now in Game 4 the number sits at just 210.5, after Miami shot just 37 percent from the field in Game 3. We should expect some positive regression for Miami, and I think they score 100+ here tonight. It's tough to see anything different from Denver as the mismatch with Jokic is just something that isn't going to change. The over is 13-5 in Heat's last 18 games following a double-digit loss at home.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Denver.

Before this series started the Denver Nuggets were an overwhelming favorite to win the series. They won comfortably in Game 1, and it quickly became apparent that Miami had no answers for the Joker. The Nuggets were up by eight heading into the 4th quarter of Game 2, but the Heat went on a run and ended up winning 111-108. Miami shot out the lights, hitting 48.6 percent from beyond the arc. This is an outlier, well above their playoff average of 39 percent in the post-season. Miami certainly can't count on hitting half of their three-point attempts moving forward, and they still can't stop the Joker. Denver shot 52 percent from the field in Game 2, and Joker scored 41 points on 16-of-28 shooting. The Nuggets simply need to crank up their effort on defense, and I expect them to do just that in Game 3 in Miami.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

One of the stories in Game 1 was the Heat attempting an NBA Playoff record low two free throws. This is one of the factors that resulted in such a low score. Here is what I said prior to the game: "The Miami Heat lead the playoffs in three-point shooting, hitting 39 percent from beyond the arc. The Nuggets aren't far behind hitting 38.6 percent of their three-point attempts. The Heat come in averaging 112 points per game while Denver has averaged 116 points per game in the playoffs. The Joker has put up incredible numbers, averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists. He's put up those numbers against the best defenders in the NBA. The Heat rank near the bottom in the NBA in rebounds per game, and have one of the league's smallest starting lineups. I expect Joker to put up video game numbers in this series, and I like the total to go over in Game 1." The total for Game 2 is several points lower than it was in Game 1, and I expect the Heat to get to the free throw line more often, and hit more threes in Game 2. Whatever the Heat do, I can't see them stopping Joker. I''l take the over here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Miami Heat lead the playoffs in three-point shooting, hitting 39 percent from beyond the arc. The Nuggets aren't far behind hitting 38.6 percent of their three-point attempts. The Heat come in averaging 112 points per game while Denver has averaged 116 points per game in the playoffs. The Joker has put up incredible numbers, averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists. He's put up those numbers against the best defenders in the NBA. The Heat rank near the bottom in the NBA in rebounds per game, and have one of the league's smallest starting lineups. I expect Joker to put up video game numbers in this series, and I like the total to go over in Game 1.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Here is what I said prior to Game 6: "We've seen some big money moving in on the under in Game 6. This might as well be an elimination game for both teams, but technically the Heat could try to win a Game 7 on the road as a likely double digit underdog. We saw this series go seven games last year, and Boston won 100-96 here in this building in Game 7. Boston has gone under in five of their last six at Miami. This might be the type of game where the winning team doesn't even score 100 points." We are calling for history to repeat itself in Game 7 of the ECF.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

We've seen some big money moving in on the under in Game 6. This might as well be elimination game for both teams, but technically the Heat could try to win a Game 7 on the road as a likely double digit underdog. We saw this series go seven games last year, and Boston won 100-96 here in this building in Game 7. Boston has gone under in five of their last six at Miami. This might be the type of game where the winning team doesn't even score 100 points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on MIA.

So the Celtics got a game, but they are still down 3-1 and they lost both home games in this series. A return to The Garden has the Celtics as a massive favorite in Game 5. You remember what Einstein said about insanity, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. The Heat were a huge underdog in Game 5 in Milwaukee, and they won that game 128-126. Miami still has the better coach, a supporting cast that has played it's role perfectly a superstar that has delivered in the clutch more than anyone wearing green and white. I'll take the points, and I'll sprinkle on the moneyline.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIA.

So I said prior to both Game 3 of this series, and Game 4 of the WCF that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. It was no surprise to see Denver win Game 4, as NBA teams up 3-0 in a series win Game 4 roughly 68 percent of the time historically. The Nuggets did it on the road, and the Heat can do it here at home. It's so clear that Jimmy Butler is the best player in this series, and Erik Spoelstra is by far the superior coach. I been riding the Heat this entire post-season, and if it ain't broke don't fix it!

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Denver.

My comments about Game 3 in Miami are just as applicable here in Game 4 in LA. Here is what I said prior to last night's game: 

Albert Einstein said that "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result". In my humble opinion betting Boston as a road favorite in this spot fits that description perfectly. The myth that Boston is the superior team has been exposed. Jimmy Butler is the best player in this series, and Erik Spoelstra is by far the better coach. Now the Heat have home court, and the Celtics are still reeling trying to figure out what went wrong. I'll take the points, even though I don't think I'll need them. 

IMO this is another example of the Wrong Team Favored! 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIA.

Albert Einstein said that "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result". In my humble opinion betting Boston as a road favorite in this spot fits that description perfectly. The myth that Boston is the superior team has been exposed. Jimmy Butler is the best player in this series, and Erik Spoelstra is by far the better coach. Now the Heat have home court, and the Celtics are still reeling trying to figure out what went wrong. I'll take the points, even though I don't think I'll need them.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on LAL.

Call me a conspiracy theorist if you want to, but the NBA Finals are about to be a ratings disaster with the Denver Nuggets versus Miami Heat matchup looking more and more likely. If the Lakers can't get back in this series, a lot of money goes up in smoke. I think you're going to see the refs calls fouls for even looking at AD and LeBron in tonight's game. LA won Game 3 against the Warriors 127-97, and they had an edge in free throws to the tune of 37-17. In Game 3 against the Grizzlies they won 111-101. It's not like the first two games in Denver weren't close, and the Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in Los Angeles. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games, and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on BOS.

As much as I disagree with how big a favorite Boston was in Game 1, and here in Game 2, I just think this is a spot where they are gonna come out swinging and they will get all the calls. I have joked about a script in the league office that has the Celtics playing the Lakers in the Finals, but if you saw the referee in Game 1 react to Jimmy Butler scoring a key bucket, you would believe it. Check it out on Twitter it's going viral. The Celtics lost Game 1 at home versus Philly, and they came back and won 121-87 in Game 2. Don't be surprised if we see something similar here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals was a high scoring affair, and because of that the total for Game 2 is five points higher than it was in Game 1. The series opener saw Denver dominate the first half, but the Lakers made adjustments that allowed them to come storming back. When they stuck Rui Hachimura on the Joker, the REAL MVP was held to just 3 points on 0-of-2 shooting in the 4th quarter. Don't be surprised if things tighten up in Game 2, and keep in mind that both teams shot better than 54 percent from the field when both teams are averaging under 50 percent in these playoffs.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the Miami Heat.

This is a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference Finals, and the Celtics won that series in a Game 7 that was decided on the final shot. Yet the bookmakers have installed Boston as a huge favorite here in Game 1 and for the series. Miami closed out the #1 seed Milwaukee Bucks in just five games in the first round. They needed six games to eliminate the New York Knicks. That has them playing two fewer games than Boston so far. The team that has played fewer games heading into the Conference Finals, has advanced to the Finals in 16 of the last 17 such occasions. Coming off a big Game 7 win over Philly, with Jason Tatum scoring 51 points, could set the Celtics up for a let down in Game 1. I'll take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

The Lakers could suffer a let down here off a big win over the Warriors in Game 6 in LA. This is Denver, probably the toughest place to play in the league. The home team won all four meetings in the regular season series. While the Lakers are coming off a high scoring series versus Golden State, and Denver is coming off a high scoring series versus Phoenix, this matchup features two teams that are ranked above average in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets ranked near the bottom of the league in pace of play. The under is 8-3 in the Nuggets last 11 home games, and they have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven off a double digit win.

GL,

Jesse Schule.

This is a 10* play on BOS.

The Celtics have all the momentum heading into Game 7 at the Garden. Boston is 26-9 all time in Game 7s, and the Sixers are 6-11 all time in Game 7s. Home teams have won 79 percent of Game 7s all time in the NBA Playoffs. The Celtics are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games, and they have covered in eight of their last 11 versus Philadelphia. The home team might get the calls here, and the Sixers could end up on the wrong side of a one-sided Game 7.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on GSW.

I said prior to Game 5 that the Lakers had enjoyed a disparity in free throw attempts to the tune of 103-51 in the first four games. I wasn't the only one talking about it, and I speculated that we'd see it even out. That's exactly what happened in Game 5, as both teams had 15 free throw attempts. I expect this trend to carry over into Game 6, and I really think the Lakers are in trouble here after AD and LeBron got banged up in Game 5. Buckle up, because I think this series is going to a Game 7!

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on MIA.

The Knicks were able to extend the series and force a Game 6 in Miami. They won Game 5 at the free throw line, with 21 more attempts than Miami. It's unlikely that they will get those calls on the road here in Game 6. The Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games, and Jimmy Buckets is averaging over 35 points per game at home in these playoffs. The Knicks are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Miami, and as much as many would like to see a Game 7, I just don't see it in the cards.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under. 

So I am going to focus on Devin Booker here. He shot 79 percent from the field in the two games in Phoenix, scoring over 80 points. Of course the total went over in both Games 3 & 4. Booker cooled off in Game 5 in Denver, shooting just 42 percent from the field. Asking him to make 4 out of every 5 shots here in Game 6 doesn't seem realistic to me. These teams went under in two of three regular season meetings, with the exception being a 128-125 overtime win for the Nuggets at Phoenix. This number appears to be inflated for an elimination game. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIA.

The Heat closed out the Bucks in Game 5 in Milwaukee, and they are an underdog here in a potential close out game in New York. I pity the fool who bets against Jimmy Butler in the playoffs! I said this before Game 4: "This isn't the same Heat team we saw during the regular season, and this isn't the regular season version of Jimmy Butler. Playoff Jimmy is a different beast all together. Butler scored 28 points, leading all scorers in Game 3. This is despite playing on a bad ankle. He's likely to be even better here in Game 4. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, and they have covered in six straight overall. Giannis and the Bucks couldn't win in Miami, and I think it's asking too much for the Knicks to win on the road here."

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DEN.

So the story in Phoenix was Devin Booker scoring 83 combined points on 79 percent shooting in Games 3 and 4. He's a career 46 percent shooter, and he shot 49 percent during the regular season. If the Suns need Booker to make every shot he takes to win close games in Phoenix, that's likely a recipe for disaster in Denver in Game 5. Kevin Durant scored 39 points in Game 3, and 36 points in Game 4. He got to the free throw line for 29 attempts in those games. He averaged just 26.5 points per game in the first two games in Denver, and only shot six free throws in those games. The last Game in Denver the Suns were held to just 87 points. The home team is 9-1 straight up and Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIA.

This isn't the same Heat team we saw during the regular season, and this isn't the regular season version of Jimmy Butler. Playoff Jimmy is a different beast all together. Butler scored 28 points, leading all scorers in Game 3. This is despite playing on a bad ankle. He's likely to be even better here in Game 4. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, and they have covered in six straight overall. Giannis and the Bucks couldn't win in Miami, and I think it's asking too much for the Knicks to win on the road here. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under. 

The Suns are back in this series after Devin Booker shot out the lights in Game 3. He scored 47 points on 20-of-25 shooting. I don't like his chances of hitting almost every shot he makes here in Game 4. After the total went over in the series opener, we saw Denver hold the Suns to just 87 points in Game 2. I think we see another low scoring defensive battle here in this pivotal Game 4. The under is 9-4-2 in the Nuggets last 15 Conference Semifinals games, and they should bring the defensive intensity here tonight. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MIA ML. 

The Knicks won Game 2, but their performance was far from convincing. The expression on Jimmy Butler's face said it all, he knows he's going back to Miami and winning Game 3. Butler scored 56 in Game 4 at home, and then scored 42 in the series clinching win in Milwaukee in Game 5. Even without Jimmy Buckets, the Knicks just barely won Game 2 at the Garden. Miami has the most valuable player in this series, and they are well coached. I think the coaching matchup is a mismatch in favor of the Heat. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on the Sixers. 

The Sixers got their rear ends spanked in Game 2 despite the return of Joel Embiid, but that was really no surprise. The series heads back to Philly tied 1-1 and the Sixers are still in the driver's seat. They should come out strong in the first half here on their home court. Philly has a home record of 31-12 (regular season and playoffs combined). While these two teams split the season series and the home team went 2-2, the home team was 3-0-1 straight up in the first half. The Sixers were 3-1 ATS in the first half in the regular season series. I think the Celtics will be fortunate just to weather the storm here in the first half. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on GSW.

We saw the Lakers win Game 1 on the road in Memphis, and they came out and lost 103-93 in Game 2 to a Grizzlies team without Ja Morant. They were outscored 30-19 in the first quarter, and trailing by 15 at halftime. I expect to see a similar result here against a Warriors team that rarely loses at home. The Warriors are 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 home games, and they have covered in five of their last six coming off a loss. Even in a loss in Game 2 of their series versus the Kings, they came out and outscored Sacramento 23-17 in the first quarter. Expect the Warriors to come out swinging here in Game 2 at home. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on GSW.

The Warriors are riding high after Steph scored 50 in Game 7 in Sacramento. They won two of three home games in the series, and they were 33-8 at home during the regular season. The Lakers lost two of three in Memphis, and the Grizzlies won Game 2 without Ja Morant. The crowd is going to be all fired up at the Chase Center, and the Lakers might struggle early in Game 1. The Lakers trailed at halftime in all three road games in the first round.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on NYK.

So the Knicks face a must win game at home in Game 2 at the Garden, and the status of Jimmy Butler is up in the air. The line would indicate that he's not expected to play, but even if he comes in and plays hurt, it's unlikely to benefit an already shorthanded Heat team. Butler has carried the Heat in the absence of Tyler Hero and Victor Oladipo. The Heat should probably wave the white flag here, let Butler rest up and make his return in Game 3 at home with the series tied 1-1. I'll take the Knickerbockers to win by double digits here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DEN.

I had the Nuggets in Game 1, and here is what I said prior to the game: "So the injury to Kawhi allowed the Suns to escape from the first round unscathed, but lets not forget that they got exposed in Game 1. This team has no depth, and Durant and Chris Paul are injury prone vets on the downside of their careers. Denver finished first in the West, with a 34-7 home record. These teams split the season series and the home team won all four games. The Suns were just 17-24 on the road, and I expect them to struggle in Denver in Game 1 at altitude." Game 1 wasn't close, and I don't think it gets any better for the Suns here in Game 2.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under. 

So the first half total has gone under in five of six games, and now the bookmakers have made the adjustment. I don't think they have adjusted enough for a Game 7 though. There have been 15 Game 7s played in the NBA since 2018. The combined total fell short of 200 in 12 of those games. Only one of those 15 games went over the listed total for this game, when the Clippers beat the Mavericks 126-111 in 2021. We saw 109 points scored in the first half of Game 6, and I can't see them scoring more than that here in a Game 7. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DEN.

So the injury to Kawhi allowed the Suns to escape from the first round unscathed, but lets not forget that they got exposed in Game 1. This team has no depth, and Durant and Chris Paul are injury prone vets on the downside of their careers. Denver finished first in the West, with a 34-7 home record. These teams split the season series and the home team won all four games. The Suns were just 17-24 on the road, and I expect them to struggle in Denver in Game 1 at altitude.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on LAL.

I had the Lakers in Game 4, and here is what I said before tip off: "The Grizzlies were the best home team in the NBA during the regular season, with a record of 35-6. They struggled on the road, and that doesn't bode well for them in Game 3 in LA. There is the potential for Ja Morant to attempt to play through pain despite a hand injury, which might be counter-productive for the Grizz. He's not the only player nursing an injury for the Grizzlies, and the veteran Lakers appear to be the healthier of the two teams. The home team is 8-2 straight up in the last 10 head to head meetings, and Memphis has lost four of their last five at LA. The Grizzlies are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games versus a team with a winning home record." On top of everything else, expect the Lakers to get favorable treatment from the officials here. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on GSW.

So when it was announced that De'Aaron Fox was going to play despite a broken finger, the Warriors went from -4 in Game 5 to -1.5. I said that he could be a liability if he wasn't at 100 percent. He appeared to play pretty well, but his 24 points was a series low. He shot a series low 36 percent from the field and committed a series high six turnovers. I don't see it getting any better for the Kings here in Game 6. The Warriors won four series in last year's playoffs, and in their four series clinching wins the total went under in all four. The average combined total in those games was 207.5. I'll take the Dubs to win and the game to go under the total.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

So when it was announced that De'Aaron Fox was going to play despite a broken finger, the Warriors went from -4 in Game 5 to -1.5. I said that he could be a liability if he wasn't at 100 percent. He appeared to play pretty well, but his 24 points was a series low. He shot a series low 36 percent from the field and committed a series high six turnovers. I don't see it getting any better for the Kings here in Game 6. The Warriors won four series in last year's playoffs, and in their four series clinching wins the total went under in all four. The average combined total in those games was 207.5. I'll take the Dubs to win and the game to go under the total.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on on MEM. 

The Grizzlies face elimination in Game 5 at home, and I expect them to respond after losing back to back games in LA. Memphis was an NBA best 35-6 at home during the regular season. The Lakers are in a good spot, and they will come into Game 5 knowing that even if they lose they go back home with a chance to to close out the series in Game 6. The Lakers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Memphis. The Grizzlies had a 30-19 lead at the end of the first quarter in the last game in Memphis. Expect a fast start for the home team as they look to avoid elimination. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on CLE.

The Cavs face elimination in Game 5, and we should expect them to out swinging early here on their home court. The Cavs were 32-11 at home during the regular season, and they were the best defensive team in the NBA, ranking #1 in opponent scoring average. Donovan Mitchell is coming off a terrible Game 4 in New York, but we expect him to bounce back here at home. He averaged 31.8 points per game in four regular season games against the Knicks, and he scored 38 points in Game 1.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

I bet the under in Game 1 of this series, and I said the following before the game: “Minnesota is coming off back to back unders in both of their play-in games, and they held the Thunder to just 95 points in their last game. The Nuggets own an elite defense, and they are particularly good at home. The under is 11-2 in the Nuggets last 13 overall, and they have failed to reach the total in five straight home games.” With Minnesota facing elimination once again, don't be surprised if Game 5 in Denver looks a lot like Game 4 in Minnesota.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on LAL.

Here is what I said before Game 3: "The Grizzlies were the best home team in the NBA during the regular season, with a record of 35-6. They struggled on the road, and that doesn't bode well for them in Game 3 in LA. There is the potential for Ja Morant to attempt to play through pain despite a hand injury, which might be counter-productive for the Grizz. He's not the only player nursing an injury for the Grizzlies, and the veteran Lakers appear to be the healthier of the two teams. The home team is 8-2 straight up in the last 10 head to head meetings, and Memphis has lost four of their last five at LA. The Grizzlies are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games versus a team with a winning home record." The Grizzlies simply have no answers for AD, and I expect them to go back to Memphis trailing 3-1 in the series.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

I bet the under in Game 1 of this series, and I said the following before the game: “Minnesota is coming off back to back unders in both of their play-in games, and they held the Thunder to just 95 points in their last game. The Nuggets own an elite defense, and they are particularly good at home. The under is 11-2 in the Nuggets last 13 overall, and they have failed to reach the total in five straight home games.” We have since seen Game 2 and Game 3 go over the total, but with the Wolves facing elimination in Game 4, I expect to see more of a defensive battle here. The under is 12-4 in Nuggets last 16 overall, and the Timberwolves have gone under in 12 of their last 17 home games. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on LAL.

The Grizzlies were the best home team in the NBA during the regular season, with a record of 35-6. They struggled on the road, and that doesn't bode well for them in Game 3 in LA. There is the potential for Ja Morant to attempt to play through pain despite a hand injury, which might be counter-productive for the Grizz. He's not the only player nursing an injury for the Grizzlies, and the veteran Lakers appear to be the healthier of the two teams. The home team is 8-2 straight up in the last 10 head to head meetings, and Memphis has lost four of their last five at LA. The Grizzlies are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on PHI.

So Joel Embiid is sitting out Game 4 due to knee soreness, and the line has dropped to almost a pickem. Philly has won eight of their last 10 without Embiid in the lineup, and they should feel an increased sense of urgency to prevent the Nets from extending this series, which would put more mileage on a banged up Joel Embiid. The Nets might not have much fight in them, coming off consecutive heart breaking losses. Historically teams down 0-3 do not perform well when facing elimination. Teams with a 3-0 series lead are 53-22 straight up in Game 4 dating back to 2022. I think Philly puts the Nets out of their misery here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the Knicks.

The series heads back to New York tied 1-1, and the home team looks like the play in Game 3. The Knicks won both home games during the regular season series, and they are 4-1 SU in the last five head to head meetings. They covered in all four wins during that span. The crowd is going to be mental at the Garden, and the Knicks should feed off that especially early in the game. If this game is close at the half the Cavs can consider themselves fortunate.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on LAC.

I had the Clippers in Game 1, and I picked them to win the series. While the Suns won and covered in Game 2, I didn't find it very convincing. They still have a glaring lack of depth on the bench, and Cameron Payne remains questionable. Kawhi Leonard averaged 23 points per per game during the regular season, but he's totalled 69 in two playoff games so far. He's been the best player in this series so far, and another strong performance is expected in Game 3. The Clippers should get off to a strong start in LA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on GSW.

The Warriors are down 0-2 in the series, which might not be a huge surprise considering their road record during the regular season. They were 33-8 at home, and they are 4-0 straight up in their last four home games against the Kings. They are 39-16-1 ATS in their last 56 home games. It's do or die for the defending champs, and I expect them to jump out to an early lead here. They are 11-1 straight up in their last 12 home playoff games. Expect the champs to come up big in Game 3.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

I had the under in Game 1 and here is what I said prior to the game: "Minnesota is coming off back to back unders in both of their play-in games, and they held the Thunder to just 95 points in their last game. The Nuggets own an elite defense, and they are particularly good at home. The under is 11-2 in the Nuggets last 13 overall, and they have failed to reach the total in five straight home games." I expect more of the same here in Game 2.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

I had the under in Game 1 and here is what I said prior to the game: "The Cleveland Cavs owned the #1 defense in the NBA during the regular season, and they host a New York Knickerbockers team that was also above average defensively. When these teams played in December, it was one of the lowest scoring games all year. The Knicks won 92-81 at The Garden, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see another defensive clinic here in Cleveland in Game 1. The under is 6-1 in the Knicks last seven Conference Quarterfinals games, and the Cavs have failed to reach the total in four of their last five home games. The under is 6-2 in the Cavaliers last eight Conference Quarterfinals games." I am expecting more of the same in Game 2.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Game 1 went over the total, but with 5:48 remaining in the 4th quarter the score was tied at 105-105. At that point it could have gone either way, but an outburst of offense pushed the total over the number of 238.5. Now the total for Game 2 is even higher, despite an increase in desperation for the Warriors to tighten up their defense. Keep in mind that 20 of Golden State's last 23 Playoff games have seen fewer than 238 combined points, and three of the four regular season meetings fell short of that number.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Minnesota is coming off back to back unders in both of their play-in games, and they held the Thunder to just 95 points in their last game. The Nuggets own an elite defense, and they are particularly good at home. The under is 11-2 in the Nuggets last 13 overall, and they have failed to reach the total in five straight home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Miami Heat owned the #1 scoring defense in the NBA this season, and in their play-in game against the Knicks they allowed just 91 points in a home win over Chicago. The Bulls were held to a single point in the last 3:47 of the game. The Bucks have failed to reach the total in five straight first round playoff games, and we should expect points to be hard to come by in Game 1 in Milwaukee.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MEM.

The Grizzlies were 35-6 on their home court, giving them the best home record in the NBA. The home team has won all three meetings between these teams this year, and Memphis won at home by a score of 121-109 in February. The Lakers looked good in the second half after trailing 60-49 at halftime. If they play like that here in Memphis, they will have a much tougher time coming back in the second half. Watching them blow a three point lead with just 1 second on the clock was a little alarming. This looks like a let down spot for the Lakers, and I like Memphis to win big.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Cleveland Cavs owned the #1 defense in the NBA during the regular season, and they host a New York Knickerbockers team that was also above average defensively. When these teams played in December, it was one of the lowest scoring games all year. The Knicks won 92-81 at The Garden, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see another defensive clinic here in Cleveland in Game 1. The under is 6-1 in the Knicks last seven Conference Quarterfinals games, and the Cavs have failed to reach the total in four of their last five home games. The under is 6-2 in the Cavaliers last eight Conference Quarterfinals games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

So this number opened at 227 and has since been bet up. I will fade the public here with a play on the under, and here is why: First off the Wolves have averaged well below 117 points per game in their last five overall. They only barely scored 100 in regulation and OT at LA in their last game. Minnesota won the last meeting at Oklahoma City in December by a score of 112-110. Four of the last five head to head meetings have gone under. The Thunder have failed to reach the total in four of their last five road games, and the under is 12-4 in the Wolves last 16 home games. I don't expect to see any easy buckets in an elimination game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under. 

The last time these teams played the total went over the number in a 130-128 Miami win. This game was the second of a two game series in Miami, which is somewhat of an anomaly. The under had cashed in eight of the previous nine head to head meetings. Miami owns the 2nd best scoring defense in the NBA, one of only two teams to allow less than 110 points per game. Last year only one of six Play-in games saw more than 225 combined points. The under is 36-16 in the last 52 meetings in Miami. I will bet on the defense to be the story here in Miami. The Hawks played in seven post-season games last year, and only one of those saw more than 225 combined points. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on BKN.

The Nets are sitting in sixth place in the East, just a game in front of the Miami Heat. With both teams playing tonight, there is little margin for error. The Magic are expected to roll out their backups, resting their starters in what is a meaningless game for them. The Nets are coming off a 15-point win at Detroit, and they figure to roll here at home in a game with massive playoff implications..

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on PHX.

Denver has already locked up the best record in the West, and home court advantage until the Finals. They have nothing to prove here in Phoenix, so we expect Jamal Murray and Joker to be rested. The Suns have won six straight, and they are still developing chemistry with KD. The Nuggets are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. The Suns average margin of victory on their current win streak is greater than 13 points per game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

The Aztecs streak of unders ended in a 72-71 win over FAU in the Final Four. Both teams shot out the lights from beyond the arc, with the Owls hitting over 40 percent and San Diego State better than 50 percent. I won't bank on seeing that again in the Final. The under is 17-5 in the Aztecs last 22 overall, and the under is 27-9 in their last 36 neutral site games. UCONN also plays a tough defensive brand of basketball, and the under is 7-2 in the Huskies last nine overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on BKN.

So who won the Kyrie Irving trade?? I guess it's pretty clear that Brooklyn is on the better end of that deal. The Mavs have dropped out of the playoffs, while the Nets are not only in the playoffs, it looks like they can also avoid the play in. A home game against a Utah team that is without at least three starters should be a blowout. The Nets have covered in six straight, and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on UCONN.

The Hurricanes were down by a dozen with just over 10 minutes to go in their Elite-8 win over Texas. They tied the score five minutes later, and never looked back. Miami simply couldn't miss, and Texas just collapsed. I don't see that happening here in the Final Four versus UCONN. Keep in mind that this team started the season 13-0, and that included a win over Alabama. They were ranked #2 in the country. The Huskies are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 NCAA Tournament games, four time National Champions, and they are in the Final Four for the sixth time. They appear to be destined to go to the Final.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the PELICANS.

This is the second game of a back to back for the Clippers, and Kawhi Leonard played last night. We will see if any Clippers will be rested for load management tonight. The Pelicans have won six of their last seven overall, and they are 8-1 straight up in their last nine versus the Clippers. The Clippers are 6-22 ATS in the last 28 meetings in New Orleans.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SDSU.

The Aztecs will be just a slight favorite here against the Florida Atlantic Owls, and San Diego State has been dominant defensively in the tournament so far. They have held three of their four opponents to fewer than 60 points, with the exception being a 71-64 win over Alabama. The Aztecs have gone under in 12 straight overall, and we expect another defensive battle here. The Owls have escaped from some close calls, but I think their luck runs out here in the Final Four.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

The Aztecs will be just a slight favorite here against the Florida Atlantic Owls, and San Diego State has been dominant defensively in the tournament so far. They have held three of their four opponents to fewer than 60 points, with the exception being a 71-64 win over Alabama. The Aztecs have gone under in 12 straight overall, and we expect another defensive battle here. The Owls have escaped from some close calls, but I think their luck runs out here in the Final Four.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

This is a big game in Minnesota tonight as the Lakers and the T-Wolves battle for a play-in spot. Just a half game separates these teams, and the winner will be closer to clinching home court in the play-in while the loser will be in danger of dropping out entirely. The total of 232.5 looks a little high, as eight of the last 10 meetings have fallen short of that number. They have gone under in each of the last five meetings in Minnesota, and the under is 6-0 in the last six meetings overall. The under is 9-3-1 in the Timberwolves last 13 home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is 4* play on Memphis.

So the Grizzlies own the best home record in the NBA, and now Ja Morant is back and coming off a 27-point performance in a win over Atlanta. A home game against Orlando looks like a good spot to back one of the hottest teams in the NBA. This is a let down spot for the Magic, coming off three straight home wins. The Magic are 13-24 on the road, and they lost their last game in Memphis by 28 points last March.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on UNT.

Florida Atlantic is making noise in the NCAA Tourney, reaching the Final Four as a #9 seed. The C-USA has another team in a major tournament semi-final. The North Texas Mean Green finished second in the C-USA, two games behind the Owls. The difference being the two head to head meetings each decided by just four points. The Mean Green are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games, and they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Badgers are 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on N.O.

The Pelicans are as healthy as they have been all season, and they come into Portland as winners of four straight. They beat the Clippers by 20 on Saturday, and now they catch the Blazers who are playing on back to back nights after losing at home to Oklahoma City Sunday. The Blazers are banged up, with the majority of their starting lineup sidelined by injury. Damian Lillard has already packed it in for the season, and the lineup is likely to consist of 2nd and 3rd stringers tonight. The Pelicans have won five of the last six meetings, and all five of those wins came by double digits.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the Grizzlies.

The Hawks play the second game of a back to back after rallying to beat Indiana on Saturday. Trey Young was tossed for throwing a ball at an official, and will likely be serving a suspension here in today's game. The Grizzlies are coming in as winners of eight of their last nine overall, and Ja Morant will be playing his third game back for Memphis. This looks like a let down spot for the Hawks, and the Grizz could lay the smack down here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Scoring is up at the NCAA Tournament over the last week, but the Aztecs don't often find themselves involved in high scoring games. San Diego State has gone under the total in 10 straight overall, and the under is 26-8 in their last 34 neutral site games. These teams played in last year's NCAA Tournament, and Creighton won 72-69 in overtime. The total was set at 120.5 for that game, 15 points lower than today's total.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

Some might be shocked to see these teams here in the Elite-8, but I actually have a pending bet on Kansas State at 10-1 to win the East Region. This was one of three longshots I gave out on my NCAA Tournament preview show on Youtube. I am a little concerned that their starting PG rolled his ankle against Michigan State, even though he played a team high 43 minutes. The Owls have been dominant defensively in the tournament, and if Nowell is not 100 percent it will be tough for the Wildcats to run up the score. The under is 20-8-1 in the Owls last 29 neutral site games, and they have failed to reach the total in five of their last six overall. The Wildcats have gone over in five straight NCAA Tournament games, but two of their three games at this tournament saw less than 144.5 combined points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Indiana.

The Hawks host the Pacers and both Tre Young and DeAndre Hunter are questionable to play on Saturday. The line indicates they will both be in the lineup, but regardless it seems like 10.5 points is a bit much. The Pacers have covered in three of their last four versus Atlanta, and they lost 131-128 in their last game at Atlanta. The Pacers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall, while the Hawks have failed to cover in seven of their last eight after a two day layoff. I'll take the points here with a Pacers team that is technically still alive in the playoff hunt.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

The under is still hitting at close to 70 percent in the tournament so far, and history suggests that the low scores will continue in the Sweet-16. Last year only six of the eight games reached 140 combined points. Xavier had their way with Pitt in the first half on Sunday, but the pace was slowed in the second half. I expect Texas to have more answers for the Musketeers and I don't think it's going to take them until halftime to figure it out. The under is 7-3-1 in the Musketeers last 11 NCAA Tournament games, and the Longhorns have gone under in seven straight overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

The Clippers just lost 101-100 to Oklahoma City on Monday, and this is a spot where I usually look to take the team with revenge in the second game of a two game series. In this spot though I am focused on the total. LA didn't just lose the game, they lost Paul George to a knee injury that will keep him out for several weeks. Despite the 201 total points scored in the first game, and the fact that these teams haven't combined to score 230 points in any of the last 10 meetings, we see the total listed over 230. The under is 30-10 in the Clippers last 40 home games, and they have gone under in seven of their last nine home games versus the Thunder.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

Tennessee is the best defensive team in the country, ranking #1 nationally in both opponent field goal percentage as well as three-point field goal percentage. It should come as no surprise that the under is 9-4-1 in the Volunteers last 14 overall. Florida Atlantic has been solid on defense as well, and the under is 5-1 in the Owls last six neutral site games. I think FAU will score fewer than 60 points here, and the Vols are only averaging 66 points per game in their last five overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a free play on Under.

The under cashed at a rate of 27-9 in the first round of the tournament, and heading into Sunday's action the trend was at 33-11. We did see some higher scores and the over cashed in six of eight on Sunday, but those numbers had been bet down quite a bit. This number still seems a little high when you consider that Arkansas has gone under in five straight at the NCAA Tournament, and they trended under at a 58.8 percent clip during the regular season. The Huskies have failed to reach the total in five of their last six, and they have gone under in five straight off a win.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Vandy.

I picked Vandy at 28-1 to win the N.I.T. before the tournament started, and I bet on them in their opening game against Yale. Here is what I said before they beat the Bulldogs: "The Commodores have been one of the hottest teams in the country at the end of the season. Prior to losing to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament Semifinal, they had won 10 of 11 with wins over Kentucky (twice), Tennessee and Auburn. They host the Yale Bulldogs, and Vandy is 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. The Commodores are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss." They needed a miracle to get past Michigan, and of course to me that felt like destiny is on their side.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Memphis.

The Grizzlies will miss Ja Morant, but here in this game against the Mavs it might be no Ja, no problem. It looks like Luka is still out, and Kyrie is doubtful to play. The Mavericks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five when coming off a win. The Mavs are just 14-21 SU on the road, while the Grizzlies are 29-5 at home. The Grizzlies are 42-18-1 ATS in their last 61 home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on SJST.

My CBI Game of the Year was a winner on San Jose State, and they didn't disappoint. Here is what I said prior to their game against the Screaming Eagles: "I don't think the markets have caught up to this San Jose State team. The Spartans are perennial bottom feeders in the Mountain West, but this year they finished top five in the conference this year, two games ahead of New Mexico and just two games back of Nevada. Both these teams are coming off a loss, but the Spartans are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss. The Screaming Eagles are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss. I have to think this is a mismatch." This Radford team has taken a major step back since their improbable NCAA Tournament run, and I think they are biting off more than they can chew here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on NO.

So the Pelicans are coming off a 114-112 loss at Houston, and they play the second of a two game series at the Toyota Center. Even after winning three straight home games, the Rockets still have twice as many home losses as they have wins. The Pelicans had won seven of eight straight up versus Houston prior to Friday's game. The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six versus the Rockets, and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven at Houston. I like the visitors in this revenge spot.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

If you check out ESPN you will see stories about Princeton and FDU. The media loves to hype up the upsets, meanwhile favorites are 29-11 straight up so far in the tournament. Lost in all the talk over underdogs and upsets is the fact that unders have been hitting at a 75 percent clip in the tournament so far. It wouldn't appear that the markets have adjusted for this, as the total for this game is over 145. There were eight games at the NCAA Tournament yesterday, and not a single one of them saw a combined 145 points. We have seen 22 of 24 games go under that number the last two days at the tournament. The under is 8-3 in the Bluejays last 11 NCAA Tournament games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

If you check out ESPN you will see stories about Princeton and FDU. The media loves to hype up the upsets, meanwhile favorites are 29-11 straight up so far in the tournament. Lost in all the talk over underdogs and upsets is the fact that unders have been hitting at a 75 percent clip in the tournament so far. It wouldn't appear that the markets have adjusted for this, as the total for this game is over 145. There were eight games at the NCAA Tournament yesterday, and not a single one of them saw a combined 145 points. We have seen 22 of 24 games go under that number the last two days at the tournament. The under is 14-5 in the Kentucky Wildcats last 19 NCAA Tournament games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Auburn.

If Houston was healthy there would be no way I would want Auburn here. Houston is not healthy, so here I am taking an underdog in the NCAA Tourney. The Cougars just barely escaped their first round matchup versus Northern Kentucky, and leading scorer Marcus Sasser left the game after re-aggravating his groin injury. He says he will play today, but he won't be 100 percent. Jamal Shead is the Cougars starting PG, and while he does not appear on the injury report, he claims to have tweaked his knee against NKU. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on KAN.

We saw a pair of double digit seeds win outright on the first day of the NCAA Tournament, and several favorites won and failed to cover. That's a sample size of one freaking day. Dating back to 1985 #1 seeds have won all but one of their first round matchups, and the average margin of victory is over 22 points per game. History suggests that one of these teams is likely to make the Final Four, and it ain't the Razorbacks. Arkansas has been inconsistent, losing six of nine heading into the tournament, and failing to score 65 points in four of those six losses. Only the best version of the Razorbacks can compete with Kansas, and that version only shows up 1/3 of the time.

GL.

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SJST.

I don't think the markets have caught up to this San Jose State team. The Spartans are perennial bottom feeders in the Mountain West, but this year they finished top five in the conference this year, two games ahead of New Mexico and just two games back of Nevada. Both these teams are coming off a loss, but the Spartans are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss. The Screaming Eagles are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss. I have to think this is a mismatch.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on K-State.

The Wildcats are the #3 seed in the East Region, ahead of Duke, Kentucky and Tennessee. We all know that underdogs shock the world in the first round of the NCAA Tournament year after year, but judging by conversations I hear at the water cooler in the office, I don't think you're average Joe actually knows the historical prevalence of such upsets. The fact is that #3 seeds have won 85% of their first round matchups since 1985. The Wildcats come in as one of the top teams in the best conference in the country. They have wins over Kansas, Baylor, Texas and TCU. Montana State won the BIG SKY, but their non conference schedule included two games against an opponent from a major conference. They lost by 20+ points to both Arizona and Oregon. It's hard for me to justify a single digit point spread in this matchup.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Memphis.

The Tigers upset the #1 ranked Houston Cougars in the AAC Tournament Final, and they are 9-2 straight up in their last 11 overall. Both losses during that span came against the #1 ranked team in the country, and the most recent loss came on a buzzer beater. FAU won a bunch of games in the C-USA, but they haven't played a ranked team all season. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games, and they won six of seven straight up at neutral sites. Unlike the Owls, they have wins versus the likes of Auburn, VCU and Texas A&M. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Grizzlies come into San Antonio as a road favorite, but the Spurs have been pretty competitive of late. They are 4-4 straight up in their last eight overall, and they have scored 120+ points in three of their last four overall. The Grizzlies are coming off a 138-119 loss at Miami, and they have gone over in three straight versus the Spurs. The total in this game is lower than it was in each of the last five meetings between these teams.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on BAY.

We saw a pair of double digit seeds win outright on the first day of the NCAA Tournament, and several favorites won and failed to cover. That's a sample size of one freaking day. Dating back to 1985 #3 seeds have won 85 percent of their first round matchups, and the average margin of victory is over 14 points per game. I expect a major correction on Day 2 of the tournament, and I'll take one of the top teams from the best conference in the country as a double digit favorite in a spot where they should be asked to cover a 15 point spread (IMO). The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.

GL,

Jesse Schule