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Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
04-21-18	76ers -153 v. Heat		106-102	Win	100	25 h 37 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers are getting a lot of press right now, and I have to admit it's hard not to buy into the hype. They come into Game 4 in Miami with a 2-1 series lead, and leading scorer Joel Embiid is back after sitting out the first two games. Both of Philly's wins in this series have come in blowouts by 20+ points, and there can't be a lot of optimism among players and coaches in Miami that they can compete with this team. Dwyane Wade looked like a 36 year old in Game 3, scoring just eight points on 2-of-10 shooting in 25 minutes. I bet on the Heat in the first half of the last game, and they just barely covered. The Heat have failed to cover in five of their last six home games, and I think it's going to be particularly difficult to put such a brutal loss (in Game 3) behind them. Take PHI. GL, Jesse Schule
04-20-18	Celtics +5.5 v. Bucks		92-116	Loss	-105	11 h 46 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics. I bet on Boston in both the first two games of this series, and here is what I said prior to Game 1: "The Celtics are just a slight favorite at home, despite being a #2 seed versus a #7 seed. Sure they would like to have Kyrie Irving in these playoffs, but lets not kid ourselves about how good they were without him. Keep in mind, last year this team gave Cleveland fits, and Kyrie was playing for the Cavs. This season they played more than their fair share of games without not only Irving, but several other key players. They won 13 of their last 19 without Kyrie, and four of those six losses came on the road. Boston is still the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five versus Milwaukee. Boston is 5-1 ATS in it's last six at The Garden, and the under is 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 Conference Quarterfinals games." Public money is heavy on Milwaukee in Game 3, despite the fact that Boston has covered in five straight versus the Bucks, including their last two in Milwaukee. I'll take the points as I feel this is an inflated line. Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule
04-19-18	Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 207		110-97	Push	0	9 h 19 m	Show
The Warriors head to San Antonio in complete command of this series, and they will be a favorite to win Game 3. The Spurs aren't good enough to compete with the Warriors in this series, but they are sure as hell good enough to steal a game at home. Their Game 2 loss at Golden State was their 10th straight loss on the road, but they have won 11 in a row at home. In fact the Spurs won 33 games on their home court during the regular season, one of those wins coming versus Golden State. The Spurs won that game by a score of 89-75, and they lead 49-41 at halftime. They have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 home games, and they lead the NBA in opponent's scoring average. I expect the home team to come out playing with plenty of emotion here in Game 3, especially in the first half. The Spurs led by a score of 53-47 at the half in Game 2, but went on to lose by 15 points. These two teams have failed to reach the total in eight of the last 11 meetings in San Antonio. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule
04-19-18	Blazers v. Pelicans -165		102-119	Win	100	9 h 48 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the New Orleans Pelicans. They say that the playoffs are a whole different monster than regular season basketball, and no team personifies that better than New Orleans. The Pelicans were one of the league's worst defensive teams during the regular season, but they've completely shut down the Blazers in the first two games in Portland. Coming back home, I expect them to be all fired up for Game 3. Down 0-2, the news goes from bad to worse for Portland as starting center Jusuf Nurkic left Game 2 with an injury and did not return. The Pelicans are on a roll, covering the spread in seven straight overall, and four of their last five against Portland. The Trail Blazers are 7-22-2 ATS in their last 31 Conference Quarterfinals games. Take NO. GL, Jesse Schule
04-19-18	76ers v. Heat +2		128-108	Loss	-105	7 h 49 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Miami Heat. I bet on Miami in Game 1, and they were leading at halftime before completely falling apart in the second half. Here is what I said prior to that game: "The Sixers come into the playoffs riding a 16 game winning streak, and it seems that everyone is now ready to #TrustTheProcess. Of course bettors are lining up to back Philly in Game 1 of their first round series versus the Heat, and because of that they are asked to cover a spread a few points higher than it was the last time they played Miami at home. The Sixers split the season series versus the Heat, but only covered the spread in one of the four games. Both the Sixers wins came in games decided by fewer than six points. "They played us hard; they were really physical with us, especially down in Miami," Sixers guard J.J. Redick said. "They run multiple actions on offense so you really have to defend for the whole shot clock. They have a deep roster with a bunch of guys who play hard and play together. It's a big challenge for us." Simply put, I am not ready to buy into the hype here with a young team that has little to no playoff experience. Regular season wins don't count for #### all in the post-season. The Heat are 18-8-2 ATS in their last 28 road games, and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 Conference Quarterfinals games." Of course it all came to fruition in Game 2, and I expect Game 3 in Miami to be a similar story. Take MIA. GL, Jesse Schule
04-18-18	Jazz v. Thunder -178		102-95	Loss	-178	10 h 37 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the OKC Thunder. The Utah Jazz were one of the hottest teams in the league in the second half of the season, but they ran into a brick wall in Portland in their final game. They play Game 2 on the road at Oklahoma City, and they appear to be catching the Thunder at a bad time. Oklahoma City won four of their final five games, including a win on the road at Houston. Russell Westbrook is playing out of his ******** mind. Paul George averaged almost 28 points per game in his last five, and the Thunder are starting to look like the team everyone expected them to be when they signed George in the off-season. Utah has lost seven of their last eight versus the Thunder, and they are 0-7 in their last seven trips to OKC. Take OKC. GL, Jesse Schule
04-17-18	Pelicans v. Blazers UNDER 214		111-102	Win	100	9 h 25 m	Show
This is an 8* play on NO@POR to go Under the total. The Blazers held New Orleans to just 97 points in Game 1, but they were on the wrong side of a close defensive game. I expect Portland to come back an even the series with a win in Game 2, but my money is on the total. Portland ranked 5th in the NBA in opponent's scoring average, and they are going to be playing with desperation here in tonight's game. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, going under in five of the last seven meetings. The under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in Portland, and 11-5-1 in the last 17 overall. The Blazers have also gone under in five of their last six when coming off a loss. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
04-17-18	Bucks v. Celtics -125		106-120	Win	100	7 h 51 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics. The Celtics are just a slight favorite at home, despite being a #2 seed versus a #7 seed. Sure they would like to have Kyrie Irving in these playoffs, but lets not kid ourselves about how good they were without him. Keep in mind, last year this team gave Cleveland fits, and Kyrie was playing for the Cavs. This season they played more than their fair share of games without not only Irving, but several other key players. They won 13 of their last 19 without Kyrie, and four of those six losses came on the road. Boston is still the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five versus Milwaukee. Boston is 5-1 ATS in it's last six at The Garden, and the under is 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 Conference Quarterfinals games. Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule
04-15-18	Jazz v. Thunder -140		108-116	Win	100	28 h 23 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the OKC Thunder. The Utah Jazz were one of the hottest teams in the league in the second half of the season, but they ran into a brick wall in Portland in their final game. They play Game 1 on the road at Oklahoma City, and they appear to be catching the Thunder at a bad time. Oklahoma City won four of their final five games, including a win on the road at Houston. Russell Westbrook is playing out of his ******** mind. Paul George averaged almost 28 points per game in his last five, and the Thunder are starting to look like the team everyone expected them to be when they signed George in the off-season. Utah has lost six of their last seven versus the Thunder, and they are 0-6 in their last six trips to OKC. Take OKC. GL, Jesse Schule
04-15-18	Bucks v. Celtics -160		107-113	Win	100	4 h 40 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics. The Celtics are just a slight favorite at home, despite being a #2 seed versus a #7 seed. Sure they would like to have Kyrie Irving in these playoffs, but lets not kid ourselves about how good they were without him. Keep in mind, last year this team gave Cleveland fits, and Kyrie was playing for the Cavs. This season they played more than their fair share of games without not only Irving, but several other key players. They won 13 of their last 19 without Kyrie, and four of those six losses came on the road. Boston is still the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five versus Milwaukee. Boston is 5-1 ATS in it's last six at The Garden, and the under is 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 Conference Quarterfinals games. Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule
04-15-18	Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 203		107-113	Loss	-115	4 h 39 m	Show
This is an 8* play on MIL@BOS to go Under. The Celtics are just a slight favorite at home, despite being a #2 seed versus a #7 seed. Sure they would like to have Kyrie Irving in these playoffs, but lets not kid ourselves about how good they were without him. Keep in mind, last year this team gave Cleveland fits, and Kyrie was playing for the Cavs. This season they played more than their fair share of games without not only Irving, but several other key players. They won 13 of their last 19 without Kyrie, and four of those six losses came on the road. Boston is still the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five versus Milwaukee. Boston is 5-1 ATS in it's last six at The Garden, and the under is 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 Conference Quarterfinals games. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule
04-14-18	Heat +6.5 v. 76ers		103-130	Loss	-109	11 h 19 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Miami Heat. The Sixers come into the playoffs riding a 16 game winning streak, and it seems that everyone is now ready to #TrustTheProcess. Of course bettors are lining up to back Philly in Game 1 of their first round series versus the Heat, and because of that they are asked to cover a spread a few points higher than it was the last time they played Miami at home. The Sixers split the season series versus the Heat, but only covered the spread in one of the four games. Both the Sixers wins came in games decided by fewer than six points. "They played us hard; they were really physical with us, especially down in Miami," Sixers guard J.J. Redick said. "They run multiple actions on offense so you really have to defend for the whole shot clock. They have a deep roster with a bunch of guys who play hard and play together. It's a big challenge for us." Simply put, I am not ready to buy into the hype here with a young team that has little to no playoff experience. Regular season wins don't count for #### all in the post-season. The Heat are 18-8-2 ATS in their last 28 road games, and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 Conference Quarterfinals games. Take MIA. GL, Jesse Schule
04-11-18	Nuggets +3.5 v. Wolves		106-112	Loss	-110	17 h 2 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets wrap up the regular season on the road at Minnesota, and the winner of this game will advance to the playoffs. Denver has been one of the league's hottest teams heading into the playoffs, winning six straight and eight of their last 10. The same can not be said for the Timberwolves, who are just 6-6 in their last 12 overall. More concerning for Minnesota is the fact that all six of those wins came against non playoff teams. History is certainly on the side of the visitors, who won the last meeting by a score of 100-96. The Nuggets are 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Minnesota. The Nuggets have also covered the spread in five of their last six road games. The underdog has covered the spread in 20 of the last 27 meetings in this series. Take DEN. GL, Jesse Schule
04-11-18	Spurs v. Pelicans UNDER 211	Top	98-122	Loss	-105	17 h 2 m	Show
This is a 10* play on SA@NO to go Under the total. It's not unusual to see teams step up their defensive intensity at this time of year. The Spurs are the league's best defensive team, and they are coming off a 98-85 win over Sacramento. The Pelicans aren't known for their defense, but they have improved here at the end of the regular season. They rank 29th in the NBA, allowing over 110 points per game overall this season. They've allowed less than that in six of their last seven overall however. These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games, failing to reach the total in seven of the last 10 head to head meetings. The under is 10-4-1 in Pelicans last 15 versus teams with a winning straight up record, while the Spurs have gone under in four of their last five at New Orleans. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
04-09-18	Kings v. Spurs UNDER 200		85-98	Win	100	11 h 46 m	Show
This is an 8* play on SAC@SA to go UNDER the total. I cashed in a winner in the Spurs most recent home game, a win over Portland. Here is what I said prior to the game: "Only the Toronto Raptors and Houston Rockets have more home wins than San Antonio this season, and the Spurs come into tonight's home game against Portland as winners of nine straight in San Antonio. The Spurs have allowed an average of just 99.7 points per game, and they rank 1st overall in the NBA in opponent's scoring average. The Blazers are in a comfortable position in the Standings, and with Damien Lillard nursing an ankle injury, we should see Portland dial it back a little. History certainly favors the Spurs, as Portland has failed to cover in seven of it's last 10 in San Antonio, and the Spurs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games." The Kings have played really solid defense lately, holding opponents under 100 points in three straight. They won two of those three games outright. The Kings have failed to reach the total in eight of their last nine overall. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
04-07-18	Blazers v. Spurs -175		105-116	Win	100	10 h 20 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the San Antonio Spurs. Only the Toronto Raptors and Houston Rockets have more home wins than San Antonio this season, and the Spurs come into tonight's home game against Portland as winners of nine straight in San Antonio. The Spurs have allowed an average of just 99.7 points per game, and they rank 1st overall in the NBA in opponent's scoring average. The Blazers are in a comfortable position in the Standings, and with Damien Lillard nursing an ankle injury, we should see Portland dial it back a little. History certainly favors the Spurs, as Portland has failed to cover in seven of it's last 10 in San Antonio, and the Spurs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games. Take SA. GL, Jesse Schule
04-07-18	Nuggets -130 v. Clippers		134-115	Win	100	3 h 30 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Denver Nuggets. The Clippers are set to suffer a let down here against the Nuggets, after losing three of their last four overall. Their home loss to Utah by a whopping 22 points was likely the final nail in the coffin, killing any hope of making a playoff run. The Nuggets are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, and only after winning six of their last eight are they even in position to think about the playoffs. You can't really blame the Clippers, who have four PGs sidelined by injury. They simply didn't have enough healthy bodies to throw out there. I like Denver to win a desperation game here in LA. Take DEN. GL, Jesse Schule
04-03-18	Celtics +2 v. Bucks		102-106	Loss	-105	11 h 32 m	Show
8*
04-02-18	Michigan +7 v. Villanova	Top	62-79	Loss	-110	16 h 47 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Michigan Wolverines. By now you have probably already heard that Michigan is the only team to make the Final without playing at least a #5 seed. Don't kid yourself, this Wolverines team didn't get here because of a soft schedule. Their 14 game winning streak includes wins over #2 ranked Michigan State (they beat the Spartans twice this year) and #8 ranked Purdue. They lost two of three versus the Boilermakers, but the two losses came by a combined margin of five points. Villanova comes in as the highest scoring team in the country, and they deserve to be the favorite. The line looks a little inflated though, asking them to cover a whopping seven points in a game of this magnitude. The Wildcats offense struggled against Texas Tech, but they were fortunate that the Red Raiders couldn't make a shot to save their lives in that game. Michigan has far better shooters, and the Wolverines rank 8th nationally allowing just 62.9 points per game. The last five National Championship Games were all decided by less than seven points, and I expect another close game here in 2018. GL, Jesse Schule
04-01-18	Bucks v. Nuggets -168		125-128	Win	100	14 h 22 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Denver Nuggets. The Milwaukee Bucks are going to make the playoffs, the only question is who they face in the first round. With Cleveland likely to finish third in the East, moving up in the standings might only increase their chances of facing the Cavs in the first round. Playing on the road at the end of a three game Western Conference swing, I don't see a lot of reason for the Bucks to go all out. The Nuggets on the other hand absolutely need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. They are two and half games back of 5th place Minnesota, but they have played one fewer game. They also face the Timberwolves twice, and they have a home game against the Clippers remaining. They are 27-10 in Denver, giving them one of the best home records in the league. The Bucks have a losing record on the road, and they are 4-13-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings in Denver. Take DEN. GL, Jesse Schule
03-31-18	Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5		57-69	Win	100	86 h 7 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Michigan Wolverines. The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers are a real life Cinderella Story, but you all remember what happened to Cinderella when the clock struck midnight? It's time for this underdog to come crashing back down to earth. The reality is that the Ramblers beat Miami, Tennessee and Nevada by a combined four points, they got a gift when they were matched up against Kansas State in the Elite Eight. The Wolverines run is far more impressive, with a winning streak now at 13 games, including wins over the likes of #2 ranked Michigan State and #8 ranked Purdue. The Wolverines average margin of victory in the tournament so far is 11.5 points. The Wolverines have scored more points, and allowed less than the Ramblers despite playing tougher opposition. Michigan is 6-2-1 ATS in it's last nine non-conference games, while the Ramblers have failed to cover in five of their last six versus teams from the BIG 10. Take MICH. GL, Jesse Schule
03-30-18	Nuggets v. Thunder UNDER 224.5	Top	126-125	Loss	-110	9 h 23 m	Show
This is a 10* play on DEN@OKC to go Under the total. The NBA Playoffs are just a few weeks away, and as teams jockey for playoff position, we see a lot more intensity on defense. I bet on the under in the Thunder's 108-105 loss to Portland, and here is what I had to say before the game: "Both the Blazers and the Thunder rank among the top defensive teams in the league, ranking 5th and 7th in opponent’s scoring average. The Thunder are just one game back of Portland in the Northwest, and there is just two games separating 3rd place Portland and 6th place New Orleans in the Western Conference standings. The Blazers have won all three of their games against the Thunder this season, and two of those three games fell short of the total. The total for tonight’s game is higher than it was in any of those previous three contests." The Thunder host the Denver Nuggets tonight, and these two teams have gone under in two of three previous meetings this season. Once again, tonight's total is higher than it was in any of those previous three games. I'll place a value bet here on what appears to be an inflated total. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-27-18	Bucks v. Clippers -150		98-105	Win	100	12 h 19 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the #LAC. The Milwaukee Bucks have been terrible on the road this season, with a record of 16-19. They head out West for a road game against the Clippers, and I don't like their chances here against a Clippers team that has a 20-15 home record against superior opposition in the Western Conference. The Clippers trail the 8th place Minnesota Timberwolves by two games in the standings, but since they have played three fewer games they still have a good chance to move up. The Bucks have failed to cover in 11 of their last 15 overall, and they are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine versus teams from the Western Conference. The Clippers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 versus Eastern Conference teams. The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games versus teams with a winning home record. Take LAC. GL, Jesse Schule
03-25-18	Heat v. Pacers UNDER 207	Top	107-113	Loss	-105	19 h 41 m	Show
This is a 10* play on MIA@IND to go Under the total. The Pacers are just a game and a half back of the first place Cavs in the Central Division, and they come into tonight's home game versus Miami as winners of 12 of their last 17. During that span they've allowed fewer points than any team in the league, and they now rank in the top 10 in the league in opponent's scoring average this season. Miami ranks 4th overall in the NBA allowing just 103 points per game. All three meetings between these teams went over, but all those games were played before the All Star break when Indiana was struggling defensively. Prior to this season, they have gone under in six of seven games dating back to November of 2015. The Pacers have gone under in nine of their last 10 overall, and they have failed to reach the total in seven straight home teams. I expect another low scoring battle here in Indianapolis Sunday. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-25-18	Duke -155 v. Kansas		81-85	Loss	-155	12 h 16 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Duke Blue Devils. Duke comes in as the #2 seed, favored to beat the #1 seed Kansas. Why are the Blue Devils favored? Well there are a handful of very good reasons. Duke has turned things around defensively, allowing just 67.6 points per game in their last five overall. The Jayhawks on the other hand allowed 76 points in their win over Clemson, and 79 points in their win over Seton Hall. Duke came into the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country, covering the spread in nine of it's last 12 overall, and 11 of it's last 15 non conference games. The Blue Devils have a history of dominating teams from the BIG12, covering in eight of their last 11 versus BIG12 teams. Perhaps more important than any trends or stats, Duke has the best coach in the business. No disrespect to Bill Self, but I'll take Coach K over anybody. Take DUKE. GL, Jesse Schule
03-25-18	Texas Tech v. Villanova OVER 144.5	Top	59-71	Loss	-105	16 h 56 m	Show
This is a 10* play on TTU vs VILL to go Over the total. The Villanova Wildcats are the highest scoring team in the country, averaging a whopping 87 points per game. They have scored an average of 86 points in their three NCAA Tournament games, and they have scored more than 80 points in eight of their last 10 overall. The Red Raiders have made it this far because of their solid play defensively, but they were fortunate to have played a banged up Purdue team in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats are a sizable favorite here, but the total for this game is far lower than it has been in any of Villanova's last 10 games. The Wildcats have gone over in seven of their last 10 overall, while Texas Tech has gone over in seven of their last nine. Villanova has gone over in five of it's last seven NCAA Tournament games. One reason why the Wildcats play so many high scoring games is their incredibly high percentage with free throw shooting. They were 23-of-27 (85 percent) from the line against West Virginia in the Sweet 16. Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule
03-24-18	Florida State v. Michigan -190		54-58	Win	100	20 h 50 m	Show
This is a 5* play on the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan came into the NCAA Tournament as the hottest team in the country, and they looked the part in a dominant Sweet 16 win over Texas A&M. Florida State on the other hand came limping into the tournament as losers of three of four games. They have had an impressive run in their own right, beating #1 seed Xavier and #4 seed Gonzaga. I don't think either of those two teams were playing at the same level as Michigan is at the moment. Certainly the Wolverines are better defensively than either the Musketeers or the Bulldogs. The Wolverines have allowed just 60.6 points per game so far in the tournament, and during the regular season they allowed just 63.3 points per game. That's 10 points per game less than the Seminoles gave up this season. Michigan has the advantage on both offense and defense, and I think John Beilein is a better coach than Leonard Hamilton. Take MICH. GL, Jesse Schule
03-23-18	Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue		78-65	Win	100	20 h 6 m	Show
8*
03-23-18	West Virginia v. Villanova -5		78-90	Win	100	33 h 58 m	Show
This is a 5* play on Villanova. If you ask people what strategy they employ when betting on the NCAA Tournament, you will probably hear the majoroty of them talking about taking the underdogs. Shocking upsets are the most common theme at this time of year, and we saw some of that Thursday. Buffalo eliminated Arizona, and Virginia Tech and Miami both were ousted as first round favorites. Chances are, the talk in the office around the water cooler will focus mostly on these games. The reality is that seven teams were favored by double digits Thursday, and all seven of them won. Five of those seven favorites covered. In Friday's games, #1 overall Virginia went down, and so did #4 seed Wichita State. Once again though, the story you won't read about is that six of the eight teams favored by double digits won, and four of those covered. So double digit favorites went 13-2 straight up, and 9-6 ATS in the first round of the tournament. In my pre tournament research, I had learned that 1-4 seeds have covered roughly 60 percent of the time in the early rounds in recent seasons. So I can't say that I am surprised by the fact that double digit favorites are hitting at a 60 percent clip so far. Such anomalies are rare in sports betting, as the bookmakers are quick to make adjustments in order to correct such trends. It seems clear that the shock factor of upsets such as UMBC over Virginia have a serious psychological effect on sports bettors. The betting public is convinced that backing underdogs in the NCAA Tournament is a winning strategy. This consensus opinion among fans likely prevents the bookmakers from making what are normally routine adjustments. Now I bet on a few dogs myself in the first round, including UNC Greensboro and Charleston, who both came very close to winning outright. That being said, I think the real value at this time of the year is on undervalued favorites, and that's exactly what I think we have here with West Virginia vs Villanova. The Wildcats have covered in eight of their last 10 NCAA Tournament games, and eight of their last nine games at a neutral site. Take VILL. GL, Jesse Schule
03-23-18	Clippers v. Pacers UNDER 219	Top	104-109	Win	100	17 h 48 m	Show
This is a 10* play on LAC@IND to go UNDER the total. I bet the under in the Pacers loss at New Orleans on Wednesday, and here is what I said prior to that game: "The Pacers and the Pelicans are two teams that jockeying for playoff position, and they have a history of playing low scoring games. Eight of the last 10 meetings have fallen short of the listed total. Both teams have stepped up their intensity on defense in recent weeks, and the result has been lower scores across the board. That being said, tonight's total is higher than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings in this series. It's also higher than it was in any of Indiana's last 10 games overall, and nine of those games went under." Tonight's game against the Clippers is quite similar, and I expect another hard battle. The under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings, and the under is 6-0 in Pacers last six home games. The under has cashed in four of the Clippers last five visits to Indiana. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-23-18	Clemson v. Kansas -175	Top	76-80	Win	100	111 h 14 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Kansas Jayhawks. If you ask people what strategy they employ when betting on the NCAA Tournament, you will probably hear the majoroty of them talking about taking the underdogs. Shocking upsets are the most common theme at this time of year, and we saw some of that Thursday. Buffalo eliminated Arizona, and Virginia Tech and Miami both were ousted as first round favorites. Chances are, the talk in the office around the water cooler will focus mostly on these games. The reality is that seven teams were favored by double digits Thursday, and all seven of them won. Five of those seven favorites covered. In Friday's games, #1 overall Virginia went down, and so did #4 seed Wichita State. Once again though, the story you won't read about is that six of the eight teams favored by double digits won, and four of those covered. So double digit favorites went 13-2 straight up, and 9-6 ATS in the first round of the tournament. In my pre tournament research, I had learned that 1-4 seeds have covered roughly 60 percent of the time in the early rounds in recent seasons. So I can't say that I am surprised by the fact that double digit favorites are hitting at a 60 percent clip so far. Such anomalies are rare in sports betting, as the bookmakers are quick to make adjustments in order to correct such trends. It seems clear that the shock factor of upsets such as UMBC over Virginia have a serious psychological effect on sports bettors. The betting public is convinced that backing underdogs in the NCAA Tournament is a winning strategy. This consensus opinion among fans likely prevents the bookmakers from making what are normally routine adjustments. Now I bet on a few dogs myself in the first round, including UNC Greensboro and Charleston, who both came very close to winning outright. That being said, I think the real value at this time of the year is on undervalued favorites, and that's exactly what I think we have here with Clemson versus Kansas (in Omaha). The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last five against ACC teams, while the Tigers have failed to cover in four straight against the BIG12. Kansas has also covered in seven of it's last 10 NCAA Tournament games. Take KU. GL, Jesse Schule
03-22-18	Kansas State v. Kentucky -5.5		61-58	Loss	-102	38 h 39 m	Show
This is a 5* play on the Kentucky Wildcats. It took Kentucky the majority of the season to finally reach it's potential, but here in the Sweet 16 the Wildcats are one of the nation's hottest teams. They have become the elite contender they were projected to be. The Kansas State Wildcats are a tough, competitive team, and we shouldn't be surprised that they advanced this far. Kansas State is not among the truly elite teams in the country however, and that is evidenced by their record against the top teams in the BIG12. They lost three times to Kansas by a combined 31 points, and their two losses to West Virginia came by an even greater margin. Kansas State has covered just twice in it's last eight neutral site games, and the Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games. Kentucky is 3-0-2 ATS in it's last five NCAA Tournament games, and the Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Take UK. GL, Jesse Schule
03-22-18	Texas A&M v. Michigan -145		72-99	Win	100	55 h 11 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Michigan Wolverines. Texas A&M will come into the Sweet 16 as Giant Slayers after knocking off the defending champions in their last game. North Carolina didn't play particularly well, shooting just 6-of-31 from three-point range, and scoring just 65 points. It's going to be difficult for the Aggies to avoid a let down here, coming off such a stunning upset. They can't expect Michigan to struggle as North Carolina did, as the Wolverines came into the tournament as the hottest team in the country. Michigan's 11 game winning streak includes upsets over Purdue and Michigan State in the BIG10 Tournament. The Aggies were knocked out of the SEC Tournament by unranked Alabama, and they had lost three of six prior to that game. The Wolverines are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games, while the Aggies are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. The let down spot is looming large ... Take MICH. GL, Jesse Schule
03-22-18	Loyola-Chicago +2.5 v. Nevada	Top	69-68	Win	100	83 h 12 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers. The Ramblers will face the Nevada Wolfpack in the Sweet 16, and Nevada is listed as the favorite. I find it hard to be too impressed by Nevada's first two games of the tournament. They were down by double digits in the second half against Texas, and they trailed Cincinnati by 20 halfway through the second half in their last game. The Ramblers could have suffered a let down after upsetting Miami in the first round, but instead they knocked off #3 seed Tennessee. Nevada came limping into the tournament, losing twice to San Diego State in less than a week. They have been able to come from behind in each of their last two games, but if they fall behind here I don't think they'll be able to do it a third consecutive time. The Ramblers are 4-1 ATS in their last five non conference games, and they have covered the spread in four straight neutral site games. Take L-LIL. GL, Jesse Schule
03-21-18	Wizards v. Spurs -5		90-98	Win	100	18 h 12 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the San Antonio Spurs. Only the Toronto Raptors have more home wins than San Antonio this season, and the Spurs come into tonight's home game against Washington as winners of four straight. San Antonio has allowed an average of just 85 points during their current home stand, and they rank 1st overall in the NBA in opponent's scoring average. The Wizards have won back to back games, including a 125-124 road win at Boston. That win at the Garden might sound impressive, but keep in mind that the Celtics were playing without four starters in that game. The Spurs are as healthy as they have been all year, and they have a history of beating up on the Wizards. The Spurs are 20-7 in the last 27 meetings in this series, and Washington is just 3-13-1 in their last 17 visits to San Antonio. Take SA. GL, Jesse Schule
03-21-18	Pacers v. Pelicans UNDER 219.5		92-96	Win	100	10 h 10 m	Show
This is a 10* play on IND@NO to go UNDER the total. The Pacers and the Pelicans are two teams that jockeying for playoff position, and they have a history of playing low scoring games. Eight of the last 10 meetings have fallen short of the listed total. Both teams have stepped up their intensity on defense in recent weeks, and the result has been lower scores across the board. That being said, tonight's total is higher than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings in this series. It's also higher than it was in any of Indiana's last 10 games overall, and nine of those games went under. The Pelicans haven seen a combined 220 points just once in their last eight games overall. The under is 15-5-1 in the Pacers last 21 road games, and I expect that trend to continue here in New Orleans. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-20-18	Mississippi State v. Louisville -5	Top	79-56	Loss	-106	20 h 54 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Louisville Cardinals. Only eight teams remain in the NIT Tournament, and one of the Quarter Final matchups will see Louisville hosting Mississippi State. Home teams are 17-3 straight up in the tournament so far, and 10 of those 17 wins for the home team came by a double digit margin. Louisville crushed a very good Middle Tennessee team by a score of 84-68 at home in it's second round match. I bet on the under in last night's game between Oklahoma State and Stanford, and in the analysis I referenced some data published by SB Nation regarding the NIT rule changes. Here is what I said: "According to SB Nation, in the first nine games of the tournament, eight of nine road teams shot below their season average from three-point range. One of those games was Oklahoma State hosting Florida Gulf Coast, and the Cowboys held the Eagles to just 68 points." That trend certainly didn't hold true for the Bulldogs in their second round matchup versus Baylor, as they hit 13-of-22 three-point attempts, including the winner at the buzzer. I seriously doubt Mississippi State can continue to hit 60 percent of their three-point shots, especially against a tough Louisville defense. The Bulldogs lost eight of 11 road games this season, and they scored an average of just 69.4 points in those games. Take LOU. GL, Jesse Schule
03-20-18	Penn State v. Marquette -135		85-80	Loss	-135	7 h 30 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Marquette Golden Eagles. Only eight teams remain in the NIT Tournament, and one of the Quarter Final matchups will see Marquette hosting Penn State. Home teams are 17-3 straight up in the tournament so far, and 10 of those 17 wins for the home team came by a double digit margin. Marquette crushed a very good Oregon team by a score of 101-92 at home in it's second round match. I bet on the under in last night's game between Oklahoma State and Stanford, and in the analysis I referenced some data published by SB Nation regarding the NIT rule changes. Here is what I said: "According to SB Nation, in the first nine games of the tournament, eight of nine road teams shot below their season average from three-point range. One of those games was Oklahoma State hosting Florida Gulf Coast, and the Cowboys held the Eagles to just 68 points." Marquette scored 101 points, and shot 12-of-26 from beyond the arc in a home win over Oregon in the second round. Three-point shooting was the difference in the game, as Oregon made just 4-of-13 attempts. The nine point margin of victory was a little deceiving, as Oregon out-scored the Eagles 30-17 in the final quarter to make the game appear closer than it actually was. I'll take the Eagles here at the Bradley Center tonight. Take MARQ. GL, Jesse Schule
03-19-18	Stanford v. Oklahoma State UNDER 153.5	Top	65-71	Win	100	13 h 48 m	Show
This is a 10* play on STAN@OKST to go UNDER the total. It's difficult to say what kind of effect the new rules in the NIT will have on scoring. So far I can't see a lot of evidence that scoring is down across the board, but it certainly does appear that visiting teams are struggling from beyond the arc. According to SB Nation, in the first nine games of the tournament, eight of nine road teams shot below their season average from three-point range. One of those games was Oklahoma State hosting Florida Gulf Coast, and the Cowboys held the Eagles to just 68 points. Both teams struggled from three-point range in that game, with Oklahoma State shooting just 6-of-22 and FGCU hitting 10-of-27. The total for tonight's game in Stillwater is far higher than it has been in previous meetings between these two teams. The Cowboys have gone under in an incredible 11 straight non conference games, while the Cardinal have failed to reach the total in seven of their last eight non-conference games. Oklahoma State has also failed to reach the total in 16 of their last 21 in Stillwater. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-18-18	Florida State v. Xavier -5.5		75-70	Loss	-102	8 h 46 m	Show
If you ask people what strategy they employ when betting on the NCAA Tournament, you will probably hear the majoroty of them talking about taking the underdogs. Shocking upsets are the most common theme at this time of year, and we saw some of that Thursday. Buffalo eliminated Arizona, and Virginia Tech and Miami both were ousted as first round favorites. Chances are, the talk in the office around the water cooler will focus mostly on these games. The reality is that seven teams were favored by double digits Thursday, and all seven of them won. Five of those seven favorites covered. In Friday's games, #1 overall Virginia went down, and so did #4 seed Wichita State. Once again though, the story you won't read about is that six of the eight teams favored by double digits won, and four of those covered. So double digit favorites went 13-2 straight up, and 9-6 ATS in the first round of the tournament. In my pre tournament research, I had learned that 1-4 seeds have covered roughly 60 percent of the time in the early rounds in recent seasons. So I can't say that I am surprised by the fact that double digit favorites are hitting at a 60 percent clip so far. Such anomalies are rare in sports betting, as the bookmakers are quick to make adjustments in order to correct such trends. It seems clear that the shock factor of upsets such as UMBC over Virginia have a serious psychological effect on sports bettors. The betting public is convinced that backing underdogs in the NCAA Tournament is a winning strategy. This consensus opinion among fans likely prevents the bookmakers from making what are normally routine adjustments. Now I bet on a few dogs myself in the first round, including UNC Greensboro and Charleston, who both came very close to winning outright. That being said, I think the real value at this time of the year is on undervalued favorites, and that's exactly what I think we have here with FSU vs Xavier. Take XAV. GL, Jesse Schule
03-18-18	Clemson +1.5 v. Auburn	Top	84-53	Win	100	32 h 36 m	Show
This is Game of the Year play on the Clemson Tigers. I bet on the Charleston Cougars in their first round matchup versus Auburn, and here is what I had to say about the Tigers prior to that game: "Auburn was eliminated from the SEC Tournament when they lost by a whopping 18 points to Alabama. They have really struggled since losing senior forward Anfernee McLemore, who went down in an 84-75 loss to South Carolina. Including that game, they've lost four of their last six. Charleston comes in as winner of nine of their last 10 overall, with the only loss during that span coming in overtime. Auburn has failed to cover in four straight, and I don't think they should be asked to cover double digits here against a Charleston team that won 26 games this season." Clemson finished with an 11-7 record in the ACC.. you know who else had an 11-7 record? How about defending national champions North Carolina. They were eliminated from the ACC Tournament by #1 overall Virginia, losing that game by just six points. They had won three of their previous four overall, and Clemson is 6-0 ATS in their last six non conference games, and they have covered in five straight versus the SEC. Take CLEM. GL, Jesse Schule
03-18-18	Nevada v. Cincinnati UNDER 136.5		75-73	Loss	-110	29 h 37 m	Show
This is an 8* play on NEV@CIN to go UNDER the total. The Wolfpack scored just 68 points in regulation in their first round matchup versus Texas, while Cincinnati gave up just 53 points in their first round win over Georgia State. I am expecting a gritty game here when they meet in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. . I had a look at the venue, and it turns out I was riding the under here in the Horizon League Tournament. Here is what I had to say prior to the Horizona League Final: "Four teams played in the Horizon League Tournament Semi Finals at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit last night, and not one of those teams scored 60 total points. In fact two of those teams (Cleveland State and Oakland) failed to score as many as 45 points." That trend has held true here in the NCAA Tournament so far, and the Bearcats have failed to reach the total of five of their last six overall. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-18-18	Syracuse v. Michigan State UNDER 129.5		55-53	Win	100	25 h 22 m	Show
This is an 8* play on SYR@MSU to go Under, I bet on Syracuse in their First Four matchup versus Arizona State, and I took the under in their first round matchup versus TCU. Here is what I said before they beat the Sun Devils: "Both teams won a total of 20 games, and both teams were 4-6 away from home. Both teams have lost five of their last eight overall. The biggest difference I can see here between these two teams, is the strength of schedule in the ACC compared to the PAC12. Syracuse has faced Top 25 teams eight times this season, while Arizona State has only faced four ranked teams. The Orange were eliminated in the second round of the ACC Tournament by defending national champs North Carolina, while Arizona State was beaten in the first round of the PAC12 Tournament by unranked Colorado. The last time the Orange slipped into the Big Dance as a bubble team, they went all the way to the Final Four before being eliminated by the Tar Heels." The Orange will be a massive underdog here in their second round matchup versus Michigan State, and I think the venue here is particularly significant. I had a look at the venue, and it turns out I was riding the under here in the Horizon League Tournament. Here is what I had to say prior to the Horizona League Final: "Four teams played in the Horizon League Tournament Semi Finals at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit last night, and not one of those teams scored 60 total points. In fact two of those teams (Cleveland State and Oakland) failed to score as many as 45 points." That trend has held true here in the NCAA Tournament, and Michigan State comes in as winners of five of their last six overall, but only one of those wins came by more than eight points. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-18-18	Butler v. Purdue UNDER 143.5		73-76	Loss	-105	23 h 38 m	Show
This is an 8* play on BUT@PUR to go UNDER the total. Both Butler and Purdue can be formidable on the defensive side of the ball, and I am expecting a gritty game here when they meet in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. . I had a look at the venue, and it turns out I was riding the under here in the Horizon League Tournament. Here is what I had to say prior to the Horizona League Final: "Four teams played in the Horizon League Tournament Semi Finals at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit last night, and not one of those teams scored 60 total points. In fact two of those teams (Cleveland State and Oakland) failed to score as many as 45 points." That trend has held true here in the NCAA Tournament so far, and with a total three points higher than it was the last time these teams met, I like the under. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-17-18	Wolves v. Spurs -169	Top	101-117	Win	100	9 h 30 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs dropped all the way to 10th in the West after losing five of six games prior to Tuesday's game against Orlando. Greg Popovich had seen enough, and his team made a statement by blowout out the Magic 108-72. They followed that up with a 98-93 win over New Orleans, and now they are just four point favorite at home against Minnesota two days later. The level of urgency for San Antonio remains high, as they barely cling to the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. The Timberwolves are just a game ahead in the standings, but injuries have taken their toll on Minnesota. Both these teams are monsters at home, and neither team can buy a win on the road. The Spurs have won nine of the last 10 meetings in this series, and without Jimmy Butler, the Wolves are going to struggle on the road in San Antonio. Minnesota has failed to cover in 12 of it's last 16 road games, and the favorite has covered in 10 of the last 13 meetings in this series. Take SA. GL, Jesse Schule
03-17-18	Seton Hall v. Kansas -4.5		79-83	Loss	-105	14 h 10 m	Show
Seton Hall vs Kansas Free Pick March 17, 2018 If you ask people what strategy they employ when betting on the NCAA Tournament, you will probably hear the majority of them talking about taking the underdogs. Shocking upsets are the most common theme at this time of year, and we saw some of that Thursday. Buffalo eliminated Arizona, and Virginia Tech and Miami both were ousted as first round favorites. Chances are, the talk in the office around the water cooler will focus mostly on these games. The reality is that seven teams were favored by double digits Thursday, and all seven of them won. Five of those seven favorites covered. In Friday's games, #1 overall Virginia went down, and so did #4 seed Wichita State. Once again though, the story you won't read about is that six of the eight teams favored by double digits won, and four of those covered. So double digit favorites went 13-2 straight up, and 9-6 ATS in the first round of the tournament. In my pre tournament research, I had learned that 1-4 seeds have covered roughly 60 percent of the time in the early rounds in recent seasons. So I can't say that I am surprised by the fact that double digit favorites are hitting at a 60 percent clip so far. Such anomalies are rare in sports betting, as the bookmakers are quick to make adjustments in order to correct such trends. It seems clear that the shock factor of upsets such as UMBC over Virginia have a serious psychological effect on sports bettors. The betting public is convinced that backing underdogs in the NCAA Tournament is a winning strategy. This consensus opinion among fans likely prevents the bookmakers from making what are normally routine adjustments. Now I bet on a few dogs myself in the first round, including UNC Greensboro and Charleston, who both came very close to winning outright. That being said, I think the real value at this time of the year is on undervalued favorites, and that's exactly what I think we have here with Seton Hall versus Kansas (in Kansas). Take KU. GL, Jesse Schule
03-17-18	Loyola-Chicago v. Tennessee UNDER 131		63-62	Win	100	7 h 14 m	Show
8*
03-17-18	Buffalo v. Kentucky -5.5		75-95	Win	100	6 h 18 m	Show
This is an 8* play on Kentucky. If you ask people what strategy they employ when betting on the NCAA Tournament, you will probably hear the majority of them talking about taking the underdogs. Shocking upsets are the most common theme at this time of year, and we saw some of that Thursday. Buffalo eliminated Arizona, and Virginia Tech and Miami both were ousted as first round favorites. Chances are, the talk in the office around the water cooler will focus mostly on these games. The reality is that seven teams were favored by double digits Thursday, and all seven of them won. Five of those seven favorites covered. In Friday's games, #1 overall Virginia went down, and so did #4 seed Wichita State. Once again though, the story you won't read about is that six of the eight teams favored by double digits won, and four of those covered. So double digit favorites went 13-2 straight up, and 9-6 ATS in the first round of the tournament. In my pre tournament research, I had learned that 1-4 seeds have covered roughly 60 percent of the time in the early rounds in recent seasons. So I can't say that I am surprised by the fact that double digit favorites are hitting at a 60 percent clip so far. Such anomalies are rare in sports betting, as the bookmakers are quick to make adjustments in order to correct such trends. It seems clear that the shock factor of upsets such as UMBC over Virginia have a serious psychological effect on sports bettors. The betting public is convinced that backing underdogs in the NCAA Tournament is a winning strategy. This consensus opinion among fans likely prevents the bookmakers from making what are normally routine adjustments. Now I bet on a few dogs myself in the first round, including UNC Greensboro and Charleston, who both came very close to winning outright. That being said, I think the real value at this time of the year is on undervalued favorites, and that's exactly what I think we have here with Buffalo vs Kentucky. Take UK. GL, Jesse Schule
03-17-18	Rhode Island v. Duke -9		62-87	Win	100	4 h 49 m	Show
This is an 8* play on Duke. If you ask people what strategy they employ when betting on the NCAA Tournament, you will probably hear the majority of them talking about taking the underdogs. Shocking upsets are the most common theme at this time of year, and we saw some of that Thursday. Buffalo eliminated Arizona, and Virginia Tech and Miami both were ousted as first round favorites. Chances are, the talk in the office around the water cooler will focus mostly on these games. The reality is that seven teams were favored by double digits Thursday, and all seven of them won. Five of those seven favorites covered. In Friday's games, #1 overall Virginia went down, and so did #4 seed Wichita State. Once again though, the story you won't read about is that six of the eight teams favored by double digits won, and four of those covered. So double digit favorites went 13-2 straight up, and 9-6 ATS in the first round of the tournament. In my pre tournament research, I had learned that 1-4 seeds have covered roughly 60 percent of the time in the early rounds in recent seasons. So I can't say that I am surprised by the fact that double digit favorites are hitting at a 60 percent clip so far. Such anomalies are rare in sports betting, as the bookmakers are quick to make adjustments in order to correct such trends. It seems clear that the shock factor of upsets such as UMBC over Virginia have a serious psychological effect on sports bettors. The betting public is convinced that backing underdogs in the NCAA Tournament is a winning strategy. This consensus opinion among fans likely prevents the bookmakers from making what are normally routine adjustments. Now I bet on a few dogs myself in the first round, including UNC Greensboro and Charleston, who both came very close to winning outright. That being said, I think the real value at this time of the year is on undervalued favorites, and that's exactly what I think we have here with Rhode Island versus Duke. Take DUKE. GL, Jesse Schule
03-16-18	Florida State +1 v. Missouri	Top	67-54	Win	100	115 h 23 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Florida State Seminoles. Both these teams won 20 games this season, but the Seminoles played in the ACC, facing the likes of Virginia, Duke and North Carolina. They also faced Miami twice, Clemson Twice, and Louisville three times. Missouri comes into the tournament as losers of four of their last six, and they will really miss their second leading scorer Jordan Barnett. The Senior Forward will be serving a suspension after he was arrested for a DWI last weekend. Michael Porter Jr. will play for just the third time this season, but he looked a little out of sorts in his first game back. He scored 12 points of 5-of-17 shooting in 23 minutes in a 62-60 loss to Georgia in the SEC Tournament. The Tigers are going to need a huge game from the freshman in the absence of Barnett, and I think that's simply too much to ask of a kid that missed the entire season with a back injury. The Tigers have failed to cover in four straight NCAA Tournament games, and they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six non conference games. Take FSU. GL, Jesse Schule
03-16-18	Syracuse v. TCU UNDER 136.5	Top	57-52	Win	100	18 h 51 m	Show
This is an 8* play on SYR@TCU to go UNDER the total. The Orange allowed just 56 points in their First Four matchup versus Arizona State in Dayton Ohio I bet on the under in that game, and one of the reasons I gave in my analysis was the history of low scoring games at the particular venue. Here is what I said prior to the game against Arizona State: I am expecting Arizona to struggle against this elite Orange defense, and the venue may contribute to that. "Four teams played in Dayton Ohio in First Four games last night, and three of those four teams shot well below 40 percent from the field. The only exception being UCLA, and they only scored 58 points." I am not sure we should expect any more scoring here against a far better defensive team in TCU. I had a look at the venue, and it turns out I was riding the under here in the Horizon League Tournament. Here is what I had to say prior to the Horizona League Final: "Four teams played in the Horizon League Tournament Semi Finals at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit last night, and not one of those teams scored 60 total points. In fact two of those teams (Cleveland State and Oakland) failed to score as many as 45 points." Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-16-18	Texas Southern v. Xavier -18.5		83-102	Win	100	7 h 39 m	Show
This is an 8* play on XAV. If you ask most people what strategy they employ when betting on the NCAA Tournament, you will probably hear many of them talking about taking the underdogs. Shocking upsets are the most common theme at this time of year, and we saw some of that yesterday. Buffalo eliminated Arizona, and Virginia Tech and Miami both were ousted as first round favorites. Chances are, the talk in the office around the water cooler will focus mostly on these games. The reality is that seven teams were favored by double digits last night, and all seven of them won. Five of those seven favorites covered. #1 seed Xavier is asked to cover just 18.5 points against a Texas Southern team that lost it's first 13 games by an average margin of 15 points. Take XAV. GL, Jesse Schule
03-16-18	College of Charleston +11 v. Auburn	Top	58-62	Win	100	112 h 15 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the College of Charleston. Auburn was eliminated from the SEC Tournament when they lost by a whopping 18 points to Alabama. They have really struggled since losing senior forward Anfernee McLemore, who went down in an 84-75 loss to South Carolina. Including that game, they've lost four of their last six. Charleston comes in as winner of nine of their last 10 overall, with the only loss during that span coming in overtime. Auburn has failed to cover in four straight, and I don't think they should be asked to cover double digits here against a Charleston team that won 26 games this season. The Cougars are the CAA champs, and you might remember that last year's CAA champs UNC Wilmington lost by just four points in their first round NCAA Tournament game against Virginia. I think the Tigers will have a fight on their hands. Take COFC. GL, Jesse Schule
03-16-18	Texas v. Nevada		83-87	Loss	-101	109 h 12 m	Show
The Texas Longhorns will be an underdog here against Nevada in the first round of the tournament, and the Wolfpack come in looking a bit sluggish. They lost twice to San Diego State at the end of the year, including a loss in the Mountain West Tournament. The Longhorns are one of the better defensive teams in the BIG12, and they are 10-3 straight up in non conference games this season. Their defensive expertise should serve them well here in a matchup versus a Nevada team that racked up 27 wins by beating up on inferior teams in the Mountain West Conference. Texas allowed just 66 points in a total of six neutral site games this season, roughly 10 points less than the Wolfpack allowed at neutral sites. Mohamed Bamba missed three games due to injury, but returned to score 10 points on 4-of-5 shooting in just 14 minutes in a loss to Texas Tech in the BIG12 Tournament. The Wolfpack have failed to cover in four of their last five non-conference games, and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games. The under is is 24-11 in the Longhorns last 35 neutral site games. The Wolfpack have failed to cover in four of their last five NCAA Tournament games, and I like Texas to win a low scoring game here in Nashville. Take TEX. GL, Jesse Schule
03-16-18	Lipscomb v. North Carolina -20.5		66-84	Loss	-102	4 h 58 m	Show
This is an 8* play on UNC. If you ask most people what strategy they employ when betting on the NCAA Tournament, you will probably hear many of them talking about taking the underdogs. Shocking upsets are the most common theme at this time of year, and we saw some of that yesterday. Buffalo eliminated Arizona, and Virginia Tech and Miami both were ousted as first round favorites. Chances are, the talk in the office around the water cooler will focus mostly on these games. The reality is that seven teams were favored by double digits last night, and all seven of them won. Five of those seven favorites covered. Among those was the Duke Blue Devils, who beat Iona by 22. The Tar Heels eliminated Duke in the ACC Tournament, and the defending champs are a 19.5 point favorite against minnows Lipscomb. The Bisons non-conference schedule included losses by 20+ points to Texas, Alabama and Purdue. I really can't see this game being close. Take UNC. GL, Jesse Schule
03-16-18	Marshall v. Wichita State -11.5		81-75	Loss	-110	7 h 48 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Wichita State Shockers. If you ask most people what strategy they employ when betting on the NCAA Tournament, you will probably hear many of them talking about taking the underdogs. Shocking upsets are the most common theme at this time of year, and we saw some of that yesterday. Buffalo eliminated Arizona, and Virginia Tech and Miami both were ousted as first round favorites. Chances are, the talk in the office around the water cooler will focus mostly on these games. The reality is that seven teams were favored by double digits last night, and all seven of them won. Five of those seven favorites covered. Marshall comes into the tournament with 24 wins, and they are one of the higher scoring teams averaging over 83 points per game. The problem is, they aren't very strong on defense. In non conference play, they allowed 91 points at Illinois, 114 points at William and Mary, and 81 points at Xavier. The Shockers won 16 games by a double digit margin this season. Take WICH. GL, Jesse Schule
03-15-18	Montana v. Michigan -11		47-61	Win	100	79 h 4 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Michigan Wolverines. There might not be a hotter team coming into the tournament than Michigan. The Wolverines closed the season by winning nine straight games, and beating both #2 Michigan State, and #8 Purdue in the BIG10 Tournament. Here is what I had to say prior to their big upset win over the Spartans: " I bet against Michigan State in yesterday's conference tournament game, and the Spartans narrowly avoided an upset in a 63-60 win over Wisconsin. The Spartans are ranked #2 overall, and they have already wrapped up a BIG10 Championship. There isn't a lot to prove here for Michigan State in the conference tourney. The Wolverines already upset Michigan State once this year, winning 82-72 at East Lansing. Michigan has won nine of it's last 10 overall, and is 5-1 in neutral site games this year. The Spartans have only covered the spread twice in their last 11 games overall, while Michigan is 19-7-1 ATS in it's last 27 versus the Big Ten. I'll take the points here in a game where I think the underdog has more to prove." I don't think a team from the Big Sky can hang with the Wolverines. Teams from this conference have lost 12 straight in the NCAA Tournament. This should be a blowout, look for Michigan to win by 15-20. Take MICH. GL, Jesse Schule
03-15-18	Buffalo v. Arizona -8.5		89-68	Loss	-110	78 h 41 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Wildcats. Arizona finished first in the PAC12, and the Wildcats come into their first round matchup versus Buffalo as winners of eight of their last nine. The one game they lost during that span came on the road at Oregon, without their coach, and without leading scorer Alonzo Trier. This team has overcome adversity, and they appear to be peaking at the right time. DeAndre Ayton comes in off back to back 30+ point games, and the pundits agree that he's the most talented player in the country right now. Buffalo looked good against inferior teams in the MAC, but they played two ranked teams during the season and lost those games by a combined 21 points. Their loss to #12 ranked Cincinnati in the Cayman Islands came by just six points, but that is a little deceiving. They trailed by 13 at the half, and they were losing that game by double digits with just 2:38 left. They scored seven points in the final minute to get a back door cover. I don't think they can hang with the likes of Arizona here, and I expect the Wildcats to take this one by a double digit margin. Take ARI. GL, Jesse Schule
03-15-18	Davidson v. Kentucky -5.5		73-78	Loss	-104	76 h 48 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Kentucky Wildcats. Davidson is getting a lot of credit coming into the tournament with a pair of wins over a ranked Rhode Island team just in the last few weeks. As impressive as Davidson's run has been, I think it's important to remember that Rhode Island also lost by a whopping 30 points at home to St. Joe's on Senior's Night. The Rams simply aren't playing well here in March. The Wildcats are on a roll, and I've been riding them hard during their recent run. Here is what I had to say prior to their SEC Tournament win over Alabama: "Kentucky has really turned it's season around, winning five of it's last six overall. Not only have the Wildcats been winning, but they have also been covering. Their last five wins have all come by 10 or more points. Alabama is on a nice run, and it's a "feel good" Cinderella Story. I think they should be a much bigger underdog here against Kentucky though. The Crimson Tide went to the locker room down 10 at halftime against Auburn yesterday, but they rallied to outscore the Tigers 50-22 in the second half. I don't think they can do that again here against a well coached Kentucky team that is just hitting it's stride. The Wildcats have won the last nine meetings versus Bama, and I expect history to repeat itself here in the SEC tourney." Take UK. GL, Jesse Schule
03-15-18	Iona v. Duke -19.5		67-89	Win	100	71 h 29 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Duke Blue Devils. The Iona Gaels weren't even the best team in the Metro Atlantic this year. They finished fourth behind Niagara, Canisius and Rider. The lost three of their final four regular season games, giving up 110 points to Rider, 85 points to Niagara and 82 points at Siena. The Gaels didn't play a single ranked opponent during their non conference schedule, and they finished the season ranked as one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Duke was eliminated by defending champions North Carolina in the ACC Tournament, but the Blue Devils held their last five opponents to an average of 63.2 points. Duke averaged 84.7 points per game this season, and matched up against a minnow like Iona, it's reasonable to suggest they have a good chance to score 100 here tonight. I don't like Iona's chances of scoring 70 on Duke. This game should be a blowout from start to finish. Take Duke. GL, Jesse Schule
03-15-18	Pennsylvania v. Kansas -13.5		60-76	Win	100	8 h 34 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Kansas Jayhawks. Kansas won six of their first seven games this season by more than 15 points, and the one game they won by single digits was a neutral site game against #7 ranked Kentucky. The Jayhawks finished first in the BIG12, and breezed through the BIG12 Tournament despite missing their big man Udoka Azubuike. They should get Azubuike back for their first round matchup versus Pennsylvania. The Quakers are the "class" of the Ivy League, but I think the Ivy League is far weaker than it has been in a long time. The only time we saw Pennsylvania matched up against an elite team this season, they lost 90-62 at Villanova. The Jayhawks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games, 5-2 ATS in their last seven versus the Ivy League, and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 non conference games. I think this double digit spread should be a lot higher. Take KU. GL, Jesse Schule
03-15-18	NC-Greensboro +12.5 v. Gonzaga		64-68	Win	100	7 h 3 m	Show
This is an 8* play on UNC Greensboro. The Spartans opened the season with a 12 point loss to Virginia. The Cavs are now the top ranked team in the country, and yet Gonzaga is asked to win this neutral site game by an even greater margin. The Bulldogs have an impressive record, with 30 wins overall. For the most part they were beating up on inferior opposition, and the only team that they beat that is currently ranked in the Top 25 is St. Mary's. The Gaels didn't even make the tournament. The Spartans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, while Gonzaga is 1-5-1 ATS in it's last seven NCAA Tournament games. I believe the Bulldogs are once again overrated. Take UNCG. GL, Jesse Schule
03-15-18	Oklahoma +2 v. Rhode Island		78-83	Loss	-104	69 h 54 m	Show
This is an 8* play on Oklahoma. The Sooners might be the least deserving team to enter the NCAA Tournament. Pundits like Dick Vital and Jay Bilas are up in arms that Oklahoma got in at the expense of USC, Oklahoma State, Baylor and several others with a seemingly superior resume. As much as I agree that Oklahoma is undeserving, now that they are here, I think they have a chance to pull off an upset in the first round. Rhode Island comes in with three losses in their last five games, and they were obliterated in a home loss to St. Joseph's on their Senior's Night. They just barely escaped another loss to St. Joe's just a week later in the conference tournament, trailing the entire game, but rallying to win by three. A lot has been made by the fact that Oklahoma lost eight of their last 10 games. It's important to keep in mind that they played Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech and Texas. All four of those teams are in the tournament. Then Oklahoma State, a team that probably should be in the tournament. I believe that while Oklahoma isn't tough enough to be a contender in the BIG12, they match up well against teams from inferior conferences. This was evidenced by their early season success in non conference play. I don't see how a Rhode Island team that loses to Davidson twice, and almost loses to St. Joe's twice in their last five games, deserves to be a favorite here. Take OKLA. GL, Jesse Schule
03-14-18	Arizona State v. Syracuse UNDER 143.5		56-60	Win	100	14 h 19 m	Show
This is a 10* play on SYR@ARZST to go UNDER the total. Can you remember when Arizona State was ranked in the Top 5? They were ranked #3 overall in the AP rankings after winning their first 12 games of the season. They have since lost 11 of 19 games, and they should consider themselves quite fortunate to have made it into the tournament. They will be a small favorite in their first round matchup against Syracuse, and there is actually quite a lot of similarities between the two teams. Both teams won a total of 20 games, and both teams were 4-6 away from home. Both teams have lost five of their last eight overall. The biggest difference I can see here between these two teams, is the strength of schedule in the ACC compared to the PAC12. Syracuse has faced Top 25 teams eight times this season, while Arizona State has only faced four ranked teams. The Orange were eliminated in the second round of the ACC Tournament by defending national champs North Carolina, while Arizona State was beaten in the first round of the PAC12 Tournament by unranked Colorado. The last time the Orange slipped into the Big Dance as a bubble team, they went all the way to the Final Four before being eliminated by the Tar Heels. I am expecting Arizona to struggle against this elite Orange defense, and the venue may contribute to that. Four teams played in Dayton Ohio in First Four games last night, and three of those four teams show well below 40 percent from the field. The only exception being UCLA, and they only scored 58 points. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-14-18	Wizards +1.5 v. Celtics	Top	125-124	Win	100	13 h 11 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Washington Wizards. The Boston Celtics are coming off a home loss to Indiana on Sunday, and they will be undermanned at home tonight against Washington. Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and Daniel Theis will all miss tonight's game, and Al Horford is listed as questionable with an illness. The Wizards have played just as well without John Wall as they did with him, and they come into Boston as winners of five of their last six road games. The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games versus teams with a winning home record. Boston on the other hand has failed to cover in five of it's last six home games. I don't think the Celtics have enough healthy bodies to compete with anybody at the moment, home or away. Take WAS. GL, Jesse Schule
03-13-18	Nuggets -125 v. Lakers	Top	103-112	Loss	-125	12 h 40 m	Show
10*
03-13-18	St Bonaventure v. UCLA -165		65-58	Loss	-165	33 h 54 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the UCLA Bruins. The Bruins come into the tournament playing some of their best basketball in the season. They took the #15 ranked Arizona Wildcats to overtime in the PAC12 Semi Final, coming up just short. They won back to back games prior to the tournament, including a road win at USC. They beat the Wildcats in Arizona last month, and they have won four of six neutral site games. They face St. Bonaventure in a First Four matchup, and the Bonnies come in with an impressive record. While St. Bonaventure won 25 games (four more than UCLA), they had a far softer schedule. Both teams have allowed 78.2 points per game over their last five. The Bonnies lost by double digits to Davidson by a score of 82-70 in their last game. They have allowed 77.6 points per game in their neutral site games this season, and I expect UCLA to score 80+ here in Ohio. The Bonnies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. The Bruins have gone over in four of their last five non conference games. Take UCLA. GL, Jesse Schule
03-13-18	St Bonaventure v. UCLA OVER 153		65-58	Loss	-115	33 h 51 m	Show
This is an 8* play on UCLA/SBON Over. The Bruins come into the tournament playing some of their best basketball in the season. They took the #15 ranked Arizona Wildcats to overtime in the PAC12 Semi Final, coming up just short. They won back to back games prior to the tournament, including a road win at USC. They beat the Wildcats in Arizona last month, and they have won four of six neutral site games. They face St. Bonaventure in a First Four matchup, and the Bonnies come in with an impressive record. While St. Bonaventure won 25 games (four more than UCLA), they had a far softer schedule. Both teams have allowed 78.2 points per game over their last five. The Bonnies lost by double digits to Davidson by a score of 82-70 in their last game. They have allowed 77.6 points per game in their neutral site games this season, and I expect UCLA to score 80+ here in Ohio. The Bonnies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. The Bruins have gone over in four of their last five non conference games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-13-18	Magic v. Spurs UNDER 205		72-108	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
8*
03-13-18	Long Island v. Radford -185		61-71	Win	100	30 h 19 m	Show
This is an 8* play on Radford. The LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds come into the NCAA Tournament as statistically the worst team in the entire field. They finished fourth in the NEC with a record of 18-6, but they come in riding a five game winning streak. Radford isn't exactly a monster either, but at least the Highlanders won 22 games, and finished second in the Big South. They come into the tournament riding a seven game winning streak. One of the things I like about Radford is that they won all three of their neutral site game this season. They allowed opponents to average just 58.3 points in those games. Another thing that might prove to be key, is that the Highlanders shot for a significantly higher percentage from the free throw line overall this season, as well as over their last five games. Take RAD. GL, Jesse Schule
03-11-18	Houston v. Cincinnati -4.5	Top	55-56	Loss	-105	7 h 46 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Bearcats rank 2nd nationally in opponents scoring average just behind Virginia. They have allowed just 57.2 points per game this season, but in two games against Houston they gave up 70 in a home win, and 67 in a road loss. These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games, failing to reach the total in seven of the last eight meetings. Tonight's total has been bet down to 127.5, far lower than it was in the previous six head to head meetings. The Bearcats also have a history of owning the Cougars, winning eight of the last 10 meetings between the two teams. Houston has emerged as a sexy dark horse, and many people are picking them as their "Cinderella" for the dance. As impressive as their run has been, they trailed for the majority of the final five minutes in last night's game against Wichita State. They managed to pull out the victory over the Shockers, but it remains to be seen if they can do the same against an even better Cincinnati team. The Cougars opened as a four point underdog versus the Shockers, and now they are getting just a half point more against the conference champs. I'll take the favorite with the short line. Take CINCI. GL, Jesse Schule
03-10-18	North Carolina v. Virginia -165		63-71	Win	100	7 h 25 m	Show
This is an 8* play on UVA. I bet on the Cavs for the first half in last night's game against Clemson, and here is what I had to say prior to tip off: "Virginia is the nation's leader in opponents scoring average, allowing just over 52 points per game. The Tigers are not a great team offensively, in fact you could say they are a poor man's version of Virginia. The Tigers have scored an average of 3.2 points more than Virginia over their last five games, but have allowed opponents to score an average of 10 more points per game. If you look at the numbers for both teams at neutral sites, Clemson has scored an average of five points more than the Cavs, but allowed opponents to score almost 20 points more than Virginia. The Cavs have won seven straight meetings between the two teams, and they covered the spread in all but one of those games. Virginia opened up a double digit first half lead in their win over Louisville yesterday, and I see no reason why they won't do the same here against Clemson." The Cavs led by nine in last night's game, and they have been leading at the half in six of their last seven overall. Take UVA. GL, Jesse Schule
03-10-18	West Virginia v. Kansas +1.5		70-81	Win	100	7 h 21 m	Show
8*
03-10-18	Houston v. Wichita State -150		77-74	Loss	-150	4 h 57 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Wichita State Shockers. The Shockers lost their final game of the regular season by just one point at home versus Cincinnati. There is no shame in losing to a Top 10 ranked team by one point. They had won seven in a row before that game, including an upset win at Cincinnati. Houston has been a hot team as well, but with perhaps a slightly less impressive resume. Both teams won 25 games this season, but Houston had a softer schedule. The majority of the Cougars wins came at Houston, while the Shockers proved they can play anywhere by winning nine of 11 road games. Playing at a neutral site in Orlando should favor the Shockers, and I think we are getting great value here with a team that was ranked #7 overall pre-season. The Shockers are more experienced, and have a proven history of post-season success. Take WICH. GL, Jesse Schule
03-10-18	Alabama v. Kentucky -178		63-86	Win	100	3 h 30 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Kentucky Wildcats. Kentucky has really turned it's season around, winning five of it's last six overall. Not only have the Wildcats been winning, but they have also been covering. Their last five wins have all come by 10 or more points. Alabama is on a nice run, and it's a "feel good" Cinderella Story. I think they should be a much bigger underdog here against Kentucky though. The Crimson Tide went to the locker room down 10 at halftime against Auburn yesterday, but they rallied to outscore the Tigers 50-22 in the second half. I don't think they can do that again here against a well coached Kentucky team that is just hitting it's stride. The Wildcats have won the last nine meetings versus Bama, and I expect history to repeat itself here in the SEC tourney. Take UK. GL, Jesse Schule
03-09-18	Utah State v. New Mexico -170		68-83	Win	100	11 h 16 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the New Mexico Lobos. New Mexico might be the hottest team in the Mountain West right now, coming into tonight's game as winners of six straight. Not only are they winning, but by golly they sure as sh%t are scoring as well. They have scored an average of 99.6 points over their last five games. The Aggies are coming off an upset win over conference powerhouse Boise State, rallying in the second half to overcome an early double digit deficit. The Aggies appear to have caught Boise State at the right time, the Broncos lost four of their last seven games. Utah State came into the tournament as losers of four of their final five regular season games. I think the Aggies suffer a let down here just 24 hours after a shocking upset win. Take UNM. GL, Jesse Schule
03-09-18	Warriors v. Blazers UNDER 227.5	Top	108-125	Loss	-105	21 h 26 m	Show
This is a 10* play on GS@POR to go UNDER the total. The Warriors rallied to beat the Spurs 110-107 at home last night, winning their seventh consecutive game. They play on the road in their second game in as many nights at Portland tonight, and Steph Curry is expected to be sidelined with an ankle injury. The total for this game looks a bit inflated, considering that five of their last six overall have seen less than a combined 225 points. Portland ranks 5th in the NBA in scoring defense, and the Blazers have won eight straight. They have allowed opponents to average just under 99 points per game during that winning streak. Curry has missed 15 games this season, and 12 of those games saw the total fall short of 225 combined points. The Warriors have failed to reach the total in seven of their last 10 road games, while Portland has gone under in eight of their last 10 when playing on two day's rest. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-09-18	North Carolina v. Duke -190		74-69	Loss	-190	11 h 51 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Duke Blue Devils. North Carolina went down 14-0 early in their win over Miami last night, but they recovered to take a 1-point lead to the locker room at halftime. They face a far tougher test against Duke tonight, and the Blue Devils are firing on all cylinders. Duke comes in as winners of seven of their last eight, and all seven of those wins came by a double digit margin. One of those was a home win over the Tar Heels, and the outscored UNC by 20-points in the second half of that game. Duke has a better overall record, a better record in conference, and a better record at neutral sites. The stats that really stand out though are the numbers on defense. Duke has held opponents under 70 points per game overall this season, and the Blue Devils have allowed less than 60 points per game in their last five overall. Duke has covered in nine of it's last 11 games at a neutral site. Take DUKE. GL, Jesse Schule
03-09-18	Butler v. Villanova -8		68-87	Win	100	11 h 43 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Villanova Wildcats 1st Half. For the first time in a long time the Wildcats won't be going into the NCAA Tournament as BIG EAST champions. That should provide a little added motivation for them to have a good showing here in the conference tournament. They sure looked motivated in their first tournament game against Maquette, blowing out the Eagles by 20+ points. They led by seven at halftime in that game, and they led by double digits at the half in their previous two games. They face Butler tonight, and the Bulldogs are lucky to be here. Butler trailed Seton Hall by a point in the dying seconds last night, and Kamar Baldwin missed a layup. Tyler Wideman was there for the put back, and Seton Hall's defenders were caught sleeping. It was a wild finish, but I think it sets up Butler for a let down here against the juggernaut of the BIG EAST. The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games at a neutral site, while Butler has failed to cover in six of it's last eight overall. Take VILL. GL, Jesse Schule
03-09-18	Clemson v. Virginia -7		58-64	Loss	-107	13 h 46 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Virginia Cavs. Clemson suffered a historic loss at Virginia earlier this season, scoring just 36 points in 40 minutes. Some might think that sets them up for a revenge spot here in the conference tournament, but I just think this is a bad matchup for Clemson. Virginia is the nation's leader in opponents scoring average, allowing just over 52 points per game. The Tigers are not a great team offensively, in fact you could say they are a poor man's version of Virginia. The Tigers have scored an average of 3.2 points more than Virginia over their last five games, but have allowed opponents to score an average of 10 more points per game. If you look at the numbers for both teams at neutral sites, Clemson has scored an average of five points more than the Cavs, but allowed opponents to score almost 20 points more than Virginia. The Cavs have won seven straight meetings between the two teams, and they covered the spread in all but one of those games. Virginia opened up a double digit first half lead in their win over Louisville yesterday, and I see no reason why they won't do the same here against Clemson. Take UVA. GL, Jesse Schule
03-09-18	Richmond +7.5 v. St Bonaventure	Top	77-83	Win	100	8 h 47 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Richmond Spiders. I bet on Richmond last night, and they won by double digits in their first round matchup versus Duquesne. Here is what I said prior to the game: "Richmond had a brutal season in the A-10, but I believe this is a team that is far better than the numbers show. The Spiders showed some promise at the end of the season, winning back to back games in blowout fashion. They beat UMASS by a score of 90-65, shooting over 57 percent from the field and going 8-of-18 from beyond the arc. Three days later they went on the road and beat George Mason by a score of 93-79, shooting over 62 percent from the field and going 10-of-18 from beyond the arc. The Dukes have struggled, and they come into the tournament as loser of seven of their last eight overall. They don't score a lot of points, averaging just over 70 points per game in their last five. Richmond has won nine of the last 10 meetings between these teams, and I'll ride them while their hot." They have a tough matchup against a St. Bonaventure team that finished 14-4 in the A-10. They lost the last meeting at St. Bonnie's by nine points, but they won outright in four of the previous five head to head meetings. They have covered the spread in five of the last six meetings. The Spiders were just 9-9 in the A-10, but lost only twice by double digits in those 18 games. I'll take the points here in a neutral site game that should be close. Take RICH. GL, Jesse Schule
03-09-18	Memphis v. Tulsa -165		67-64	Loss	-165	5 h 9 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. The Memphis Tigers came limping into the AAC Tournament fresh off a 21-point home loss to the South Florida Bulls. Their first game of the tournament was against the very same conference bottom feeder just one week later. They just barely beat the 3-15 Bulls in their first round matchup, and they were out-scored 48-41 in the second half of a 79-77 win. The Tigers will face a much stronger Tulsa team this afternoon, and Tulsa comes in as winners of eight of their last nine overall. The one loss during that span might be their most impressive result of the bunch, hanging with the Bearcats in Cincinnati in an 82-74 loss. Tulsa has held opponents to just 64 points per game over their last five, while Memphis has given up over 77 points per game in their last five overall. The Tigers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games, and I think they are likely to get bounced here by Tulsa. Take TULSA. GL, Jesse Schule
03-08-18	Duquesne v. Richmond -130	Top	68-81	Win	100	5 h 53 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Richmond Spiders. Richmond had a brutal season in the A-10, but I believe this is a team that is far better than the numbers show. The Spiders showed some promise at the end of the season, winning back to back games in blowout fashion. They beat UMASS by a score of 90-65, shooting over 57 percent from the field and going 8-of-18 from beyond the arc. Three days later they went on the road and beat George Mason by a score of 93-79, shooting over 62 percent from the field and going 10-of-18 from beyond the arc. The Dukes have struggled, and they come into the tournament as loser of seven of their last eight overall. They don't score a lot of points, averaging just over 70 points per game in their last five. Richmond has won nine of the last 10 meetings between these teams, and I'll ride them while their hot. Take RICH. GL, Jesse Schule
03-07-18	Iowa State v. Texas -5.5		64-68	Loss	-105	14 h 32 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Texas Longhorns. The Texas Longhorns finished the season strong with a home win over #20 ranked West Virginia. Iowa State comes into the BIG12 Tournament off six straight losses, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five. The Longhorns have won both meetings between the two teams in 2018, covering the spread in both games. The Cyclones are brutal on defense, and they have allowed opponents to average 82.6 points per game in their last five overall. Texas has held the opposition under 70 points per game during that span. Iowa State has only averaged 64 points per game in the last three head to head meetings in this series. I'll take Texas to win and cover. Take TEX. GL, Jesse Schule
03-07-18	Boston College v. NC State -155		91-87	Loss	-155	7 h 30 m	Show
8*
03-07-18	Louisville v. Florida State UNDER 152.5		82-74	Loss	-105	4 h 16 m	Show
8*
03-06-18	BYU v. Gonzaga OVER 143		54-74	Loss	-110	12 h 34 m	Show
This is an 8* play on BYU@GONZ to go OVER the total. Both the Cougars and the Bulldogs scored over 80 points in their Semi Final matchups, and I am expecting fireworks in the WCC Final. Gonzaga has averaged 85 points per game at neutral sites this season, and they have shot out the lights here in Las Vegas. They are 24-for-46 from three-point range in their two previous games here in this tournament. The Cougars shot 61.1 percent from the field in their win over St. Mary's last night, and they have averaged 74.2 points per game at neutral sites this year. BYU has gone over in seven of it's last eight overall, and the over is 13-4 in their last 17 against teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs have gone over in five straight neutral site games, and four straight overall. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-06-18	Cleveland State v. Wright State UNDER 133		57-74	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
This is an 8* play on CLVST@WRST to go UNDER the total. Four teams played in the Horizon League Tournament Semi Finals at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit last night, and not one of those teams scored 60 total points. In fact two of those teams (Cleveland State and Oakland) failed to score as many as 45 points. The Vikings will be a big underdog here in the Final against Wright State, and I expect to see another defensive battle. The Raiders are the best defensive team in the conference, holding opponents to just 66.5 points per game this season. The Vikings have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven overall, while the Raiders have gone under in four of their last six. After seeing both these teams struggle to make shots in their Semi Final matchups, I don't expect to see a lot of scoring here in the Final. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-05-18	Wisc-Milwaukee v. Wright State -165		53-59	Win	100	10 h 58 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Wright State Raiders. The Raiders were 14-4 in the Horizon League, finishing second just a game back of Northern Kentucky. Two of those four losses came against Milwaukee, and thet sets up a nice revenge angle in the third meeting between these two teams in the Conference Tournament Semi Final. The Panthers are coming off an 80-75 win over Chicago, but they haven't won back to back games since the end of Janaury. They have alternated wins and losses over their last nine games, and I expect that trend to continue here against the Raiders. Take WRST. GL, Jesse Schule
03-04-18	Michigan v. Purdue -190		75-66	Loss	-190	5 h 13 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Purdue Boilermakers. I had Michigan +5.5 point in yesterday's upset win over Michigan State, but I think the Wolverines are set to suffer a let down here this afternoon against Purdue. The Boilermakers were the BIG10 champs last year, and they slipped up finishing second in the conference this season. Winning the conference tournament would send them in to the NCAA Tourney with some positive momentum, and I expect a strong effort from Purdue here. Michigan comes in off the emotional high of an upset win over rivals Michigan State, and they might struggle to come into this game with the same level of intensity. Purdue has won five straight, but hasn't covered the spread in any of those wins. They are asked to cover fewer points here in this game than in any of their last six. The Boilermakers won both previous meetings this season by a combined 15 points. I'll take the favorite here to win outright. Take PUR. GL, Jesse Schule
03-03-18	UCLA v. USC -190		83-72	Loss	-190	8 h 19 m	Show
This is a 5* play on the USC Trojans. The Trojans are coming off back to back wins at Utah and Colorado, while UCLA is coming off back to back losses (also at Utah and Colorado). The home team has won six straight meetings in this series, and I like USC at home on Senior's Night. Both these teams can score their fair share of points, but the Trojans are a far better team defensively. This is evidenced by the fact that they have allowed just 66.4 points per game over their last five, while the Bruins have allowed almost 80 points per game in their last five overall. UCLA has lost seven of nine on the road this season, and the Bruins are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take USC. GL, Jesse Schule
03-03-18	Louisville v. NC State -113		69-76	Win	100	8 h 3 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the NC State Wolfpack. Louisville poured it's heart and soul into it's final home game, and came so very close to upsetting #1 ranked Virginia. The Cavs crushed their hopes and dreams with a winner at the buzzer, and that sets them up for a let down here on the road at NC State. The Wolfpack have won 15 of 18 home games this season, with signature wins over Duke and Clemson. They were well on their way to earning a fifth straight victory in their last game at Georgia Tech, but they blew a late lead. "My message was one game doesn't define you," Coach Keatts said. "We've been playing great basketball. ... We lost tonight, so what do you do? Do you hold your head down? We don't have time for that. We have to get ready for Louisville on Saturday." NC State has covered in six of it's last eight at home, and is 21-10-1 ATS in it's last 32 home games versus teams with a losing road record. Take NC State. GL, Jesse Schule
03-03-18	Penn State +8 v. Purdue		70-78	Push	0	5 h 57 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Penn State Nittany Lions. Purdue didn't look all that interested in their opening game of the BIG10 Tournament. They trailed Rutgers 38-35 at halftime, and rallied to win by a score of 82-75. They face a tougher test tonight against "Giant Killers" Penn State. The last two games between these two teams were each decided by four points or less, yet the Boilermakers are asked to win by twice that margin here at a neutral site Saturday. Penn State has covered the spread in six of it's last eight neutral site games, and nine of it's last 12 overall. Purdue is just 1-9-1 ATS in it's last 11 games overall. I'll take the points here in a game that should mean a lot more to the underdog. Take PSU. GL, Jesse Schule
03-03-18	Michigan +5 v. Michigan State		75-64	Win	100	2 h 15 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Michigan Wolverines. I bet against Michigan State in yesterday's conference tournament game, and the Spartans narrowly avoided an upset in a 63-60 win over Wisconsin. The Spartans are ranked #2 overall, and they have already wrapped up a BIG10 Championship. There isn't a lot to prove here for Michigan State in the conference tourney. The Wolverines already upset Michigan State once this year, winning 82-72 at East Lansing. Michigan has won nine of it's last 10 overall, and is 5-1 in neutral site games this year. The Spartans have only covered the spread twice in their last 11 games overall, while Michigan is 19-7-1 ATS in it's last 27 versus the Big Ten. I'll take the points here in a game where I think the underdog has more to prove. Take MICH. GL, Jesse Schule
03-03-18	La Salle v. St. Joe's -185		70-78	Win	100	4 h 19 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the St. Joe's Hawks. The Hawks have played their best basketball here at the end of the season, coming into their final home game as winners of five of their last six overall. Their last win was by far their most impressive, upsetting Rhode Island as a double digit underdog. They didn't just win that game, they beat the Rams by a score of 78-48. They draw a favorable matchup against a La Salle team that is just 2-9 on the road. The Explorers are also primed to suffer a let down after a big Senior's Night win over Dayton in their last game. The home team is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings between these teams, and La Salle is 8-23 ATS in it's last 31 road games. The Hawks are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Take JOE'S GL, Jesse Schule
03-03-18	Alabama v. Texas A&M -5.5		66-68	Loss	-102	4 h 17 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Texas A&M Aggies. Texas A&M comes into it's final home game off back to back road wins at Vanderbilt and Georgia. The Aggies boast a sold 12-3 home record, and they have scored an average of 78.4 points in those games. That's exactly 20 points more than the Alabama Crimson Tide have averaged while losing seven of nine on the road. Alabama is coming off four straight losses, and the Crimson Tide have failed to average 70 points in their last five games overall. The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, while the Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. I expect Texas A&M to come out hard here on Senior's Night, taking care of business against an inferior opponent. Take TAM. GL, Jesse Schule
03-03-18	Wake Forest v. Georgia Tech -124		56-64	Win	100	2 h 15 m	Show
This is an 8* play on GT. Earlier this season I bet on the Yellow Jackets in a home win over Northwestern. Here is what I had to say before that game: "How good is Georgia Tech at home? Well they've won 18 of their last 22 home games. That's even more impressive than it sounds, when you consider their tough conference schedule. Last year they had home wins over champions North Carolina (ranked #9), Florida State (ranked #6) and Notre Dame (ranked #14). They host Northwestern tonight, and the Wildcats have already lost twice, dropping out of the Top 25. Senior center Ben Lammers leads the Yellow Jackets in scoring averaging 17 points per game, and freshman guard Jose Alvarado is second on the team averaging 14.3 PPG on 58.8 shooting. The Yellow Jackets have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 home games, and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games." Here on Senior's Night, the Yellow Jackets have a favorable matchup against a Wake Forest team that has lost seven of 10 on the road. Georgia Tech is 7-1 ATS in it's last eight home games versus Wake Forest. Take GT. GL, Jesse Schule
03-03-18	Xavier -7.5 v. DePaul		65-62	Loss	-106	2 h 15 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Xavier Musketeers. Xavier is poised to wrap up a Big East championship here on Saturday, but standing in their way is DePaul. The Musketeers need to win this game to clinch, otherwise they would settle for just a share of the conference title if Villanova wins their game. The Blue Demons have a conference record of just 4-13, and they have a losing home record (6-9). Xavier has won seven straight meetings versus DePaul, and both road wins during that span came by a double digit margin. The Blue Demons are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games, and Xavier is 5-0 ATS in it's last 5 road games. With no margin for error, I expect the BIG EAST leaders to dominate this game from start to finish. Take Xavier. GL, Jesse Schule
03-03-18	Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL -150		68-69	Win	100	2 h 14 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Miami Hurricanes. Miami is coming into it's final home game off an emotional win at Chapel Hill. They hit a three-point shot at the buzzer to win 91-88. The Hurricanes will host Virginia Tech, and the Hokies are also coming off a big home win over Duke. The Canes have owned Virginia Tech in recent seasons, winning eight of the last 10 meetings, and six straight home meetings during that span. Virginia Tech is averaging just 65 points per game over their last five overall, and they face a Miami team that has allowed just 67.6 points per game this season. As well as the Hokies have played on the road this season, this looks like a tough spot. I'll take the home favorite. Take MIA. GL, Jesse Schule
03-01-18	Valparaiso v. Missouri State UNDER 139	Top	79-83	Loss	-110	23 h 50 m	Show
This is a 10* play on VALPO@MOSU to go UNDER the total. The Missouri State Bears have beaten Valparaiso twice already this season, and both those games fell well short of the total. These teams meet in the Conference Tournament tonight at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis. The venue might actually be fairly significant, as after doing a little research on previous games at the Scottrade Center, it would appear that unders have been the trend. Back in 2016 there were several NCAA Tournament games played in this building, and the majority of those games fell well short of 140 total points. Both these teams have averaged below 70 points per game this season, and neither team has allowed opponents to average as many as 70 points per game. In fact in neutral site games, both these teams have allowed less than 64 points per game. The Bears have gone under in five of their last six at a neutral site, while the Crusaders have failed to reach the total in 18 of their last 26 overall. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule