This is a 10* play on BUT@UTAH to go OVER the total.

The Butler Bulldogs are 6-0, coming off an impressive win over #8 ranked Arizona. They face another tough test tonight, taking on the Utes in Utah. Both teams have been scoring a ton of points, and I expect to see a high scoring game here in this one. Utah is averaging 89.5 points per game on 49.6 percent shooting. The Utes have gone over the total in six of their last seven overall, and the over is 10-2 in Utah's last 12 non conference games. The Bulldogs have gone over in five of their last six versus PAC12 teams. Both these teams are shooting a high percentage from beyond the arc, and both teams are hitting better than 70 percent from the charity stripe. Last year Utah scored at least 80 points in each of it's first eight home games. That includes wins over San Diego State and BYU. They over is 5-1 in Utah's last six home games.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on UTAH@MIN to go UNDER the total.

The Jazz are the top defensive team in the NBA, holding opponents to an average of just 92.8 points per game. They are coming off their most impressive victory of the season, holding the Hawks to just 68 points in a 95-68 home win on Friday. They are in Minnesota tonight, and the T-Wolves have lost four of their last five. Minnesota ranks 19th in the NBA scoring an average of 103.1 points per game, but has been held to less than 100 points in four of it's last five games. These two teams have gone under in three of the last four meetings, and the one game that went over saw just 193 total points. This is a big game for the Jazz, who sit just a half game back of Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division standings. Minnesota sits dead last in the division, and the T-Wolves have gone under in seven straight versus Northwest Division teams.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MINN@FSU to go UNDER the total.

The Gophers are 6-0, and they come into Tallahassee averaging over 80 points per game so far. This will be their first game against a ranked opponent, and I don't like their chances of scoring 80 here against the Seminoles. Florida State is 5-1 overall, and 4-0 at home. These two teams have met four times since 2007, and they failed to reach the total in three of those four contests. Tonight's total is 10 points higher than it was in any of those previous meetings. Minnesota has failed to reach the total in five of it's last seven non conference games, while Florida State has gone under in four of it's last five versus BIG10 teams. After suffering their first loss of the season to Temple on Thanksgiving, the Seminoles tightened things up in a 72-61 win over Illinois Friday. I expect to see a similar score here against the Gophers tonight.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the San Francisco Dons.

The Eastern Washington Eagles needed overtime to get past the Denver Pioneers last night, and they face a tougher test tonight against the undefeated San Francisco Dons. The Dons shot 54.7 percent from the field, and hit 11-of-22 from beyond the arc in a 77-59 win over Sacramento State Saturday. Eastern Washington is a team that relies heavily on it's offense, but struggles on defense. The Eagles are allowing opponents to average over 80 points per game. Eastern Washington has failed to cover in six of it's last eight versus teams with a winning record, while San Francisco is 39-18-1 ATS in it's last 58 road games. The Dons held an edge of 39-30 in rebounds in last night's win over the Hornets, and they should dominate on the boards here against the Eagles.

Take SF.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Nevada Wolfpack.

These two teams played just last week in Reno, and Nevada won that game by double digits. Here is what I said before the game:

"The Iona Gaels lost six players from last year's team that finished with a 22-11 record in second place in the MAAC. They were 0-4 on the road versus non-conference opponents last year, and they lost by 25 points at Valparaiso, and by 20 points at Oregon State. They have started this season in similar fashion, losing 99-78 at Florida State in their opener. It won't get any easier at Nevada, as this Wolfpack team looks like a true contender in the Mountain West. Nevada absolutely crushed Oregon State on Friday, winning by a score of 83-58. The Wolfpack are 2-0 at home so far, with both of those wins coming by double digits. They were 11-3 at home last season, and won the CBI Tournament. Nevada returns four of five starters, including D.J Fenner and Cameron Oliver who each averaged over 13 points per game last year. Oliver scored a team high 24 against Oregon State, and he should be primed for a big night versus Iona."

I expect a similar result here in the Final of the Great Alaska Shootout.

Take Nevada.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on DEN@EWU to go OVER the total.

The Denver Pioneers come into Saturday's game at Eastern Washington as one of the top shooting teams in the country, hitting 53.8 percent from the field in three games this season. That hasn't translated into wins though, because the Pioneers are brutal on defense, allowing opponents to average 83 points per game. The Eagles aren't much better, with an opponent's scoring average of over 81 points per game. Both these teams like to shoot a lot of three pointers, and neither team has been particularly effective defending the perimeter. The Eagles are hitting 83.1 percent from the charity stripe, and that could be huge here against a Denver team that has seen opponents take an average of 30 free throws per game. Denver has seen the total go over in six of it's last seven against teams from the Big Sky Conference, and this has all the signs of another barn burner.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the San Francisco Dons.

The Dons are off to a 3-0 start, and they won their last game at home by a score of 79-67 over Troy. Senior guard Ronnie Boyce scored 25 points on 8-of-14 shooting in the victory, and he's averaging 28 points per game so far. The Dons play the Sacramento State Hornets tonight, and the Hornets are 1-3 with their only win coming against the Antelope Valley Pioneers. This looks like a tough spot for Sacramento State, as they are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams from the WCC. Despite a soft schedule, the Hornets have only managed to hit 35.6 percent from the field, and 21.2 percent from beyond the arc. They've been clobbered on the boards, and have allowed opponents to average 84.7 points per game. Sacramento State has failed to cover in four of it's last five non-conference contests, and I don't like the Hornet's chances of hanging with the Dons.

Take SF.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Wichita State Shockers.

Louisville needed overtime to beat Old Dominion at the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas last night. It was an ugly game that saw the Cardinals shoot just 29.7 percent from the field, winning by a score of 68-62. That's not likely going to be good enough as they get set to face the Shockers less than 24 hours later. Wichita State crushed LSU by a score of 82-47. They shot 50 percent from beyond the arc, and out-rebounded the Tigers 55-38. Cardinals coach Rick Pitino knows his team is in a tough spot here: "We won't make any excuses," Pitino said. "We'll just have to adjust on the fly and see what happens. But we have no prep time." The Shockers have covered the spread in 21 of their last 28 overall, and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games. The Cardinals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss.

Take WICH.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Nevada Wolfpack.

This Wolfpack team looks like a true contender in the Mountain West. Nevada absolutely crushed Oregon State on Friday, winning by a score of 83-58. The Wolfpack are 3-0 at home so far, with both of those wins coming by double digits. They were 11-3 at home last season, and won the CBI Tournament. Nevada returns four of five starters, including D.J Fenner and Cameron Oliver who each averaged over 13 points per game last year. Oliver scored a team high 24 against Oregon State, and he scored 22 points in a win over Iona on Sunday. They travel to Alaska to play the Oakland Grizzlies, who have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 neutral site games. Nevada is 8-1-1 ATS in it's last 10 non conference games, and they've dominated teams from smaller conferences the last two years. Oakland lost last year's leading scorer Kay Felder to the NBA draft, and it will be difficult to replace that productions as he average over 24 points per game last year.

Take NEV.

GL,

Jesse Schule

8* analysis before game time

This is a 10* play on the Nevada Wolfpack. The Iona Gaels lost six players from last year's team that finished with a 22-11 record in second place in the MAAC. They were 0-4 on the road versus non-conference opponents last year, and they lost by 25 points at Valparaiso, and by 20 points at Oregon State. They have started this season in similar fashion, losing 99-78 at Florida State in their opener. It won't get any easier at Nevada, as this Wolfpack team looks like a true contender in the Mountain West. Nevada absolutely crushed Oregon State on Friday, winning by a score of 83-58. The Wolfpack are 2-0 at home so far, with both of those wins coming by double digits. They were 11-3 at home last season, and won the CBI Tournament. Nevada returns four of five starters, including D.J Fenner and Cameron Oliver who each averaged over 13 points per game last year. Oliver scored a team high 24 against Oregon State, and he should be primed for a big night versus Iona.

Take NEV.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the St. Mary's Gaels.

The Dayton Flyers shot out the lights in a 77-72 win at Alabama on Tuesday, hitting 54.5 percent from the field, and going 9-of-18 from beyond the arc. It was just barely enough to beat the Crimson Tide though, as they were out-rebounded 40-28, and they didn't shoot well from the free throw line. Dayton won't get away with that here against the Gaels, who led the nation in field goal percentage last season. St. Mary's can match them shot for shot, and they are also averaging 39 rebounds per game (eight more than Dayton). The Gaels should have a huge edge from the free throw line, hitting 77.8 percent compared to just 60.4 percent for the Flyers. Dayton is also shorthanded for this game, missing starters Josh Cunningham and Kendall Pollard. Cunningham scored in double digits in each of the first two games, but was injured late in the win over Alabama. The Flyers are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games, and I see them coming up short here against a formidable opponent.

Take SMC.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Utah.

The Utah Utes have played twice this season, winning both games by 40+ points. They are a huge favorite at home tonight against Coppin State, but I don't think 26 points is a big enough number all things considered. The Eagles are playing a rare third game in three nights, and fourth game in five nights. They are coming off back to back 30+ point losses at BYU and Coastal Carolina. Last night in Provo they shot just 25.9 percent from the field, and made just 50% of their free throws. They've given up an average of more than 80 points per game, and this Utah team is as good as anybody they have faced so far. The Utes are well rested, and this looks like it should be a complete mismatch. Utah ranks 3rd nationally averaging 56 rebounds per game, and they have held opponents to an average of 45 points during their 2-0 start. The home team should win this game by 30+ points.

Take UTAH.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Wisconsin Badgers.

The Badgers come into tonight's game off a dominant showing in their opener, blowing out Central Arkansas 79-47. Wisconsin is ranked in the Top 10, with all five starters coming back from last year. Creighton didn't look sharp in an 89-82 win over UMKC. The Blue Jays committed 17 turnovers in the game, and they were out-scored 48-34 in the second half. They'll have to be far better to avoid a home loss to an experienced Wisconsin team tonight. The Badgers had three big road wins over ranked teams last season, winning at Syracuse, Maryland and Iowa. Creighton has lost three of it's last four versus teams ranked in the Top 10, and judging by their sloppy play and poor defense against an inferior opponent in their home opener, the Jays should be over-matched here.

Take WISC.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the BYU Cougars.

The Cougars open the season at home versus the Princeton Tigers, and BYU is just a short favorite. Princeton finished second in the Ivy League behind Yale last year, and the Tigers are favored to win the Ivy League this season. Playing on the road against a WCC powerhouse like BYU is a far cry from the competition the Tigers normally face in conference play. Princeton lost two of their first three road games last year, and both those losses came by double digits at Stonybrook and St. Joseph's. They were 0-2 versus Top 25 teams, losing by double digits to Miami and Maryland. BYU returns three starters from last season's team that was 14-2 at home. The Cougars upset Gonzaga, and recorded signature wins over teams like New Mexico, Northern Iowa, St. Mary's and Creighton. Their season ended with a semi-finals loss to Valparaiso in the NIT Tournament, and they look primed to be a contender in the WCC this year.

Take BYU.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on the St. Mary's Gaels.

St. Mary's started last season winning six straight, and all six of those wins came in games decided by double digits. The Gaels return all five starters from last season's team that ranked #1 nationally in field goal percentage. They head into their season opener ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in school history, and they host a solid Nevada team. The Wolfpack are also coming off a successful season, winning the CBI Tournament, finishing with an overall record of 24-14. They played a much softer schedule than St. Mary's, and when they faced the tougher teams things didn't go well. They lost five of their first six road games, including blowout losses at Wichita State and New Mexico. The home team has covered the spread in four straight meetings between these two teams, and that's a trend that should continue here on Opening Night.

Take SMC.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Milwaukee Bucks.

The 0-8 Pelicans played back to back games on Monday/Tuesday, and they play their third game in four nights on the road at Milwaukee tonight. This looks like a tough spot for the shorthanded Pelicans, who are at the end of a three game road trip. New Orleans has really missed Tyreke Evans and Quincy Poindexter, who have both battled knee injuries. This is a "get right game" for the Bucks, who didn't play well in an 86-75 loss at Dallas on Sunday. They have won three of four at home this season, and they were a solid 23-18 at home last year. The Pelicans have lost 36 of their last 45 road games, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last four away from the Big Easy. New Orleans ranks dead last in the NBA with a three-point shooting percentage of .277 this season. The worst part is that Anthony Davis is averaging over 30 points and 11 rebounds per game, so it's not like you can ask him to do anymore.

Take MIL.

GL,

Jesse Schule.

This is a 7* play on the LA Lakers.

The Lakers are coming off three straight double-digit wins, including a 117-97 win over Golden State. They are still undefeated at home, and they host the Dallas Mavs who are winless on the road. Dallas started the season going 0-5, but beat Milwaukee at home on Sunday. The Mavs are decimated by injuries, with Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams and Devin Harris all expected to miss tonight's game. Harrison Barnes scored 34 points in the win over the Bucks, but he's averaged just over 14 points per game on the road so far. The Lakers have covered the spread in seven straight home games, and I think this young team is the real deal. Julius Randle has been a beast, scoring 38 points and pulling in a total of 19 rebounds in wins over Phoenix and Golden State in the Lakers last two games. The Mavs have averaged just 95.5 points per game, ranking 28th in the league. With all the injuries, it's difficult to see Dallas keeping up to a Lakers team that ranks 3rd in the NBA in scoring.

Take LAL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Lakers.

Coming off a shocking upset win over Golden State, this might seem like a classic "let down spot" for the Lakers. I've never been a big fan of situational handicapping without considering the rest of the available info, and everything else I see tells me that getting the Lakers as a small favorite at home here is a bargain. You could argue that the Suns are also in a let down spot, coming off an overtime win on the road at New Orleans. Devin Booker hit a buzzer beater to tie that game, forcing OT.  It was just the Suns second win in six games, and Phoenix has been brutal defensively. The Suns rank 30th in the NBA, allowing opponents to average 112.3 points per game so far. The Lakers coach puts things in perspective with this comment: "Honestly, we're looking at the big picture and the big picture isn't beating Golden State and then losing Sunday night at home," Los Angeles coach Luke Walton said. "The big picture is we make it really hard on teams that come into Staples Center and get wins, and so far we've had two home games against two really good teams and won both." The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games, and they had six players score in double figures in their home win over the Warriors Sunday. Julius Randle and Lou Williams each scored 20 points.

Take LAL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

10*

This is a 10* play on the Chicago Bulls.

The Bulls opened the season with a home win over Boston, and they are just a slight favorite at home to Indiana tonight. The Pacers are playing on back-to-back nights, coming off a 103-94 loss at Brooklyn. Indiana was ice cold, shooting just 37.8 percent from the field, and 29 percent from beyond the arc in the loss. Dwayne Wade looked good in his Chicago debut, scoring 22 points with six rebounds, five assists, and a block in 32 minutes in the win over Boston. The Bulls have covered the spread in four of their last five home games, while the Pacers have failed to cover in 15 of their last 22 when playing the second game of a back-to-back.

Take CHI.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 6* play on the Portland Trailblazers.

The Blazers opened the season with a 113-104 win over Utah, and they've now won 10 of their last 11 home games dating back to last season. They knocked the Clippers out of the playoffs last year, winning the conference quarterfinals 4-2. They won all three home meetings in that series. The Blazers shot 13-of-19 (68.4 percent) from beyond the arc in their home opener, and they were 22-of-22 (100 percent) from the free throw line. Damian Lillard is considered a threat to win the MVP this season, and he looked the part scoring 39 points in the win over the Jazz. Some might see this a revenge spot for the Clippers, but I honestly don't think a win here does anything to heal the pain of last year's upset. In fact I think this is more of an opportunity for the young Blazers to prove that it was no fluke. The Blazers were 28-13 at the Moda Center last year, and I'll take them here as a dog against a Clippers team that they owned in last year's playoffs.

Take POR.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 6* play on the Portland Trailblazers.

Portland finished 5th in the West last season, and the Blazers were 28-13 at home. They open the season with a home game against the Utah Jazz, and I expect to see the visitors struggle. The Jazz missed the playoffs last year, and they were just 16-25 on the road. They played at Portland twice, losing both games by double digits. They come into the season with a depleted lineup, with Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Rodney Hood all battling various injuries. The Jazz are one of the league's best defensive teams, but that rarely translates into wins on the road. They don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Blazers, and they've been unable to stop Damian Lillard in previous meetings. Lillard averaged 28.7 points in three games against Utah last year. I expect history to repeat itself here on Opening Night at The Moda Center.

Take POR.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Golden State Warriors Moneyline. 

The Cavs come into Oracle Arena with all he momentum, but the Warriors are still the favorite in Game 7. Golden State only lost twice at home during the regular season, and the Dubs are 11-2 at home during the post-season. This is not the first time this team has faced adversity, remember they needed to win three straight to beat the Thunder in seven games. The Cavs have not taken a lead to the locker room at half in any of the previous three games here at Oracle, even Game 6 that they went on to win by a score of 112-97. That game was tied at the half. I expect Golden State to take it to Cleveland early, feeding off the energy of the home crowd. 

Richard Jefferson said: "We have nothing to lose, They're the team that went 73-9. All the pressure is on them." Well that couldn't be further from the truth, especially coming from a veteran who may never make it to the Finals again. The Warriors are a young team, they have already won a championship, broke the regular season record. Win or lose, they will be the favorite again next year. For LeBron James, this game is likely to define his career. Another loss in the Finals, and his legacy takes a big hit. If anyone should feel the pressure, it's LeBron, and given his track record that should worry Cavs fans. 

Take GS. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Golden State Moneyline. 

The Warriors were in complete control of this series after winning big in Cleveland in Game 4, but they were embarrassed in a shocking 112-97 home loss in Game 6. The Cavs would love to ride that momentum here in Game 6, but with two days of rest between games in the Finals, momentum hasn't been an easy thing to hang on to. It's hard to beat the Warriors at the best of times, but handing them consecutive losses is a momentous task. As good as Cleveland looked winning Game 3 by a whopping 30 point margin, they were unable to deliver a repeat performance at home in Game 4. The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games at Quicken Loans Arena, including last year's Finals that ended here in Cleveland. They are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 in this series, and with Draymond Green back from suspension, I like the Warriors to end it tonight. 

Take GS. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on the Golden State Warriors. 

We've seen the bookmakers make a major adjustment since the news that Draymond Green will sit out Game 5 due to a suspension. The line has dropped several points, but the movement is even sharper when it comes to the moneyline. As is often the case, I think this is an overreaction. The Warriors won the first two games of this series at home by the widest margin in NBA Finals history, and they did it with little help from Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. We saw some incredible performances from role players, with Sean Livingston scoring 20 points in Game 1, and veteran Leandro Barbosa shooting a combined 10-of-12 in those games. When the Warriors look to the bench, they can answer with the likes of Andre Igoudala, who was the Finals MVP last season. Marreese Speights has not seen a lot of playing time in this series, and he's a likely candidate to get a few more minutes. Mo Buckets has scored in double figures five times in these playoffs, including a 22 point performance in Game 3 in Houston. It will likely all come down to the Splash Brothers, who came to life in Cleveland in Game 4. Curry scored 38 points, and was 7-of-13 from beyond the arc. If he plays like that tonight, the absence of Draymond Green is going to be completely irrelevant. 

Take GS. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on GS@CLE to go OVER the total.

After both the first two games of this series failed to reach the total, the bookmakers adjusted with a much lower number for Game 3 in Cleveland. The pace of play in the first two games should have resulted in a higher score, but Cleveland just kept on missing shots. The Cavs shot 52.7 percent from the field in Game 3, and they were 12-of-25 from three point range. Still the total for Game 4 remains much lower than it was in the first two games, and I think after three straight lob-sided games, we might finally see a competitive contest here in Game 4. Surely the Splash Sisters have to be better, and they have plenty to prove after going a combined 4-of-16 from beyond the arc in Game 3. The over is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Golden State Warriors. 

The Cavs put up a hell of a fight in last year's Finals, despite injuries to Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving. Many thought that Cleveland would have a better chance with all it's star players healthy heading into the rematch. So far it's been all Golden State, and the scariest thing for Cavs fans is that neither of the Splash Brothers have scored 20 points in either of the first two games. Both Curry and Thompson were efficient in Game 2, going a combined 8-of-16 from beyond the arc. If the Warriors require somebody to step up their game, look for the dynamic duo to turn it up a notch. 

The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between the two teams, and they've covered the spread in seven of their last 10 in Cleveland. The last time these two teams played at Quicken Loans Arena, the Warriors won by a score of 132-98. It sure looks like the balance of power in the NBA is heavily stacked toward the Western Conference, and the Cavs just don't look like they can keep up with the best team in NBA history (most regular season wins). 

Take GS. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on CLE@GS to go OVER the total. 

After cashing in on a heavy under trend this post-season, I decided to switch things up with a play on the over in Game 1. It didn't work out, with the Splash Brothers shooting just 8-of-27 combined, totaling only 20 points. The Cavs were brutal, shooting just 38.1 percent in a 104-89 loss. Cleveland missed a lot of easy put-backs and layups that you would have expected them to hit. Heading into Game 2, we see that the bookmakers have adjusted with a total that is 3-4 points lower than it was in Game 1. We know Curry and Thompson are going to be better than they were in Game 1, and I expect Cleveland to play a bit better as well.  The Warriors have failed to reach the total in four of their last five overall, but three of those games saw enough points to go over tonight's total. 

Take OVER. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on CLE@GS to go OVER the total. 

The playoffs have been very profitable for The Iceman so far, and much of the success has come with totals. Those who have followed would know that The Iceman plays a lot more unders than he does overs, but he's changing things up here in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. While he Warriors failed to reach the total in five of their seven games in the Western Conference Final, only two of those games saw fewer points than the total here for Game 1. When these two teams met in the Finals last year, we saw tight, low scoring games. The series opener went just over, only because of overtime. Things have changed here in 2016, with a healthy Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, these Cavs can score with the best of them. The Warriors certainly are the best of them, averaging 111 points per game in the playoffs. The Cavs come in averaging 107 points per game. The Warriors didn't play particularly well against the Thunder, but with Klay Thompson making 11 three-pointers in Game 6, and the Splash Bros hitting a combined 13-of-23 from downtown in Game 7, they survived. I think if they play that way against the Cavs they could be in for a tough series. 

Take OVER. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a Free #NBA play on the Oklahoma City #Thunder.

 The Warriors have won back to back games to force a Game 7 at Oracle Arena, but neither of those wins were particularly convincing. They trailed 53-48 at halftime in Game 6, and they have trailed at the half in three of the last four games in this series. The only thing that saved them from elimination in Game 6 was the red hot shooting from Klay Thompson, who hit 11 three-pointers. If the Warriors are counting on Thompson (not Curry) to carry the load here in Game 7, they could be in trouble. 

The Thunder have really turned up the defensive intensity in the playoffs, not just in this series, but also in their semi finals series versus San Antonio. Steven Adams continues to own the boards, and he had three blocks in Game 6. Golden State has made it a habit to start slowly, and I don't like the Warriors chances of covering the spread as a big favorite in the first half of Game 7. 

Take OKC. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on OKC@GS to go UNDER the total. 

The Warriors have won back to back games to force a Game 7 at Oracle Arena, but neither of those wins were particularly convincing. They trailed 53-48 at halftime in Game 6, and they have trailed at the half in three of the last four games in this series. The only thing that saved them from elimination in Game 6 was the red hot shooting from Klay Thompson, who hit 11 three-pointers. If the Warriors are counting on Thompson (not Curry) to carry the load here in Game 7, they could be in trouble. 

The Thunder have really turned up the defensive intensity in the playoffs, not just in this series, but also in their semi finals series versus San Antonio. Steven Adams continues to own the boards, and he had three blocks in Game 6. These teams have failed to reach the total in five of the last six meetings at Golden State, and the Warriors have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 11 Conference Finals games. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on GS@OKC to go UNDER the total.  

The Warriors are down, but not out. After getting throttled in back-to-back games in Oklahoma City, they face elimination once again, but this time on the road. Steph Curry said after Game 4: " this is not how we're going to go out." Head coach Steve Kerr insists that Curry isn't injured, but then goes on to say that "it's the playoffs, everyone is a little banged up". 

Curry was 2-for-10 from beyond the arc in Game 4, and 3-for-11 in Game 3. He's only averaged 24 points per game in the series, well below his regular season average of 30.1 PPG. We've seen three of the first four games in this series fall well below these inflated totals, and we only saw a combined 85 points in the second half of Game 4. In an elimination game, I expect both teams to go all out on defense from start to finish. The Warriors haven't taken a lead to the locker room at halftime in any of their road games in these playoffs.
Despite scoring 31 points in Game 5, Curry was just 3-for-8 from beyond the arc. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on CLE@TOR to go OVER the total.

After three of the last four games in this series went under, the bookmakers adjusted with a much lower total for Game 6 in Toronto. I think this was an over-correction, and this of all games looked like one that should see more scoring. Sure enough Game 4 went over (105-99). None of the three games in Clevleand were close, but I expect a better effort from a confident Raptors team here in Game 6. The Raptors should continue to play well, behind the solid play of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, and the dominance on the boards by "Big Business" (Bizmack Biyombo). Many betters will be taking the Cavs to close out the series, but I think the better bet is on the total. The trends show that the over is 7-3 in the Cavs last 10 road games, and 12-6 in their last 18 Conference Finals games.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a Free #NBA play on the Oklahoma City #Thunder

The Warriors are down, but not out. After getting throttled in back-to-back games in Oklahoma City, they face elimination at home in Game 5 tonight. Steph Curry says: " this is not how we're going to go out." The Warriors are asked to cover a bunch of points here, and I just can't bring myself to bet on a team that has already displayed an inability to stop Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Head coach Steve Kerr insists that Curry isn't injured, but then goes on to say that "it's the playoffs, everyone is a little banged up". 

Curry was 2-for-10 from beyond the arc in Game 4, and 3-for-11 in Game 3. He's only averaged 24 points per game in the series, well below his regular season average of 30.1 PPG.
We've seen the Thunder win a Big Game 5 on the road at San Antonio in their last series, and they've already beaten the Warriors here at Oracle Arena. The Warriors look like a team that has run out of gas, and they look vulnerable here in this do or die game. 

Take OKC. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on OKC@GS to go UNDER the total.

The Warriors are down, but not out. After getting throttled in back-to-back games in Oklahoma City, they face elimination at home in Game 5 tonight. Steph Curry says: " this is not how we're going to go out." The Warriors are asked to cover a bunch of points here, and I just can't bring myself to bet on a team that has already displayed an inability to stop Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Head coach Steve Kerr insists that Curry isn't injured, but then goes on to say that "it's the playoffs, everyone is a little banged up". 

Curry was 2-for-10 from beyond the arc in Game 4, and 3-for-11 in Game 3. He's only averaged 24 points per game in the series, well below his regular season average of 30.1 PPG. We've seen three of the four games in this series fall well below these inflated totals, and we only saw a combined 85 points in the second half of Game 4. In an elimination game, I expect both teams to go all out on defense from start to finish. These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight meetings at Oracle Arena, and the Thunder have gone under in four straight road games. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on TOR@CLE to go OVER the total.

After the first three games of this series went under, the bookmakers adjusted with a much lower total for Game 4 in Toronto. I think this was an over-correction, and this of all games looked like one that should see more scoring. Sure enough Game 4 went over (105-99). None of the first two games in Clevleand were close, but I expect a better effort from a confident Raptors team here in Game 5. The Raptors should continue to play well, behind the solid play of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, and the dominance on the boards by "Big Business" (Bizmack Biyombo). Many betters will be taking the Cavs to bounce back after a pair of losses, but I think the better bet is on the total. The trends show that the over is 8-3 in Cavaliers last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 12-5 in their last 17 Conference Finals games.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Raptors.

Niether of the first two games in Clevleand were close, but I expect a better effort from a confident Raptors team here in Game 5. The Raptors should continue to play well, behind the solid play of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, and the dominance on the boards by "Big Business" (Bizmack Biyombo). Many betters will be taking the Cavs to bounce back after a pair of losses, but I think the better bet is on the Raptors getting a bunch of points at the half. Toronto opened up a big lead in the first half of Game 2, before a complete collapse in the final two minutes before the break. This team has a lot more poise and swagger heading into Game 5.

Take TOR.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Despite the fact that the Thunder lead this series 2-1, and a coming off a dominant win at home in Game 3, they remain the underdog. We've seen the Warriors deal with their fair share of adversity in this post-season, and they've made a habit of playing poorly in the first half on the road. They haven't led at the half in any of their road games so far in the playoffs. 

Steph Curry continues to make incredible shots night in and night out, but after dropping 40 points on the Blazers in Game 4, he's been held under 30 points in four straight. He's admitted his knee is still not 100%, and he injured his elbow late in Game 2. You could see his elbow was quite swollen while he was sitting on the bench in the third quarter, and the injury was on his shooting arm. 

When the Warriors visited Oklahoma City in the regular season, they went to halftime trailing 57-46. They went on to win that game in overtime 121-118. These come-from-behind wins are so common for the Warriors, there really isn't a lot of urgency for them to try to win the game in the first half. That's not the case for the Thunder, who really need to take advantage of the energy from the home crowd. A fast start is crucial for Oklahoma City. 

Take OKC. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a Free #NBA play on the Toronto #Raptors.

Nobody gave the Raptors much of a chance at winning this series prior to Game 1, and after Cleveland mopped the flour with them in the opener, most were expecting a sweep. There's no denying that Toronto is out-gunned, and Cleveland is the more talented team, that should win the series. The fact is, Toronto finished the regular season with an almost identical record (1 game back), and won two of three in the season series. The Raptors owned the boards in Game 3, with Bizmack Biyombo pulling in 26 rebounds (the most in a playoff game since 1984). Kyle Lowry played well and DeMar DeRozan scored 32 points on 12-of-24 shooting. Toronto played well early in Game 2, before falling appart just a few minutes before the break. They were dominant in the first half of Game 3, and still they are the underdog at home tonight in Game 4. I expect a better effort from Cleveland here, but I still think Toronto plus the points is the better bet. 

Take TOR.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on TOR@CLE to go OVER the total.

After the first three games of this series went under, the bookmakers have adjusted with a much lower total for Game 4 in Toronto. I think this is an over-correction, and this of all games looks like one that should see more scoring. None of the first three games were close, but I expect the Cavs to respond after an embarrassing loss in Game 3. The Raptors should continue to play well, behind the solid play of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, and the dominance on the boards by "Big Business" (Bizmack Biyombo). Many betters will be taking the Cavs to bounce back after a double-digit loss (the Zig Zag Theory), but I think the better bet is on the Cavs to simply be more competitive, thus pushing the total over. The trends show that the over is 9-3-1 in Cavaliers last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a Free #NBA play on the Oklahoma City #Thunder.

Do you remember when the Thunder upset the Warriors in Game 1? Perhaps the Warriors convincing 118-91 win in Game 2 has made us forget about how well the Thunder have played. Oklahoma City returns home with the series tied 1-1, and they are an underdog in Game 3. We've seen the Warriors deal with their fair share of adversity in this post-season, and they've made a habit of playing poorly in the first half on the road. They trailed at the half in both of their games in Portland, and they failed to get to the locker room with a lead at the half in both road games in their first round series versus Houston . 

Steph Curry continues to make incredible shots night in and night out, but after dropping 40 points on the Blazers in Game 4, he's been held under 30 points in three straight. He's admitted his knee is still not 100%, and he injured his elbow late in Game 2. You could see his elbow was quite swollen while he was sitting on the bench in the third quarter, and the injury was on his shooting arm. 

When the Warriors visited Oklahoma City in the regular season, they went to halftime trailing 57-46. They went on to win that game in overtime 121-118. These come-from-behind wins are so common for the Warriors, there really isn't a lot of urgency for them to try to win the game in the first half. That's not the case for the Thunder, who really need to take advantage of the energy from the home crowd. A fast start is crucial for Oklahoma City. 

Take OKC. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on GS@OKC to go UNDER the total 1st half.

Do you remember when the Thunder upset the Warriors in Game 1? Perhaps the Warriors convincing 118-91 win in Game 2 has made us forget about how well the Thunder have played. Oklahoma City returns home with the series tied 1-1, and they are an underdog in Game 3. We've seen the Warriors deal with their fair share of adversity in this post-season, and they've made a habit of playing poorly in the first half on the road. They trailed at the half in both of their games in Portland, and they failed to get to the locker room with a lead at the half in both road games in their first round series versus Houston . 

Steph Curry continues to make incredible shots night in and night out, but after dropping 40 points on the Blazers in Game 4, he's been held under 30 points in three straight. He's admitted his knee is still not 100%, and he injured his elbow late in Game 2. You could see his elbow was quite swollen while he was sitting on the bench in the third quarter, and the injury was on his shooting arm. 

When the Warriors visited Oklahoma City in the regular season, they went to halftime trailing 57-46. That's well short of the number for the first half of Game 3. These teams have failed to reach the total in four of the last five meetings, and the Warriors have gone under in six of their last seven Conference Finals games.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Toronto Raptors. 

Nobody gave the Raptors much of a chance at winning this series prior to Game 1, and after Cleveland mopped the flour with them in the opener, most are expecting a sweep. There's no denying that Toronto is out-gunned, and Cleveland is the more talented team, that should win the series. The fact is, Toronto finished the regular season with an almost identical record (1 game back), and won two of three in the season series. 

The Raptors were terrible offensively in Cleveland, shooting just 5-of-24 from beyond the arc in Game 1. Kyle Lowry scored eight points on 4-of-14 shooting, and was 0-for-7 from three-point range in the opener, and he was no better in Game 2. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Cleveland come out a little sluggish, as this appears to be a let down spot coming off such an easy win. In the Cavs previous series, they beat Atlanta by a whopping 25 points in Game 2, but then trailed at halftime in the next game. They went on to sweep the Hawks, but that's even more reason why they might be complacent early on. Toronto played well early in Game 2, before falling appart just a few minutes before the break. I expect them to hold on here in the first half at home in Game 3. 

Take TOR. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Toronto Raptors. 

Nobody gave the Raptors much of a chance at winning this series prior to Game 1, and after Cleveland mopped the flour with them in the opener, most are expecting a sweep. There's no denying that Toronto is out-gunned, and Cleveland is the more talented team, that should win the series. The fact is, Toronto finished the regular season with an almost identical record (1 game back), and won two of three in the season series. 

The Raptors were terrible offensively in Game 1, shooting just 5-of-24 from beyond the arc. Kyle Lowry scored eight points on 4-of-14 shooting, and was 0-for-7 from three-point range. It would be difficult for the Raptors to play that bad again in Game 2, and an improved performance from Lowry is almost a guarantee. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Cleveland come out a little sluggish, as this appears to be a let down spot coming off such an easy win. In the Cavs previous series, they beat Atlanta by a whopping 25 points in Game 2, but then trailed at halftime in the next game. They went on to sweep the Hawks, but that's even more reason why they might be complacent early on in Game 2. I'll take a tab at the Raptors getting a whole whack of points on this inflated line. 

Take TOR. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on OKC@GS to go UNDER the total. 

The Warriors got off to a great start in Game 1, but they struggled in the second half allowing Oklahoma City to come from behind to record the upset. Stephen Curry still isn't 100%, and he was just 1-of-1 from the field in the fourth quarter. The Warriors have a habit of slow starts to games, and I really think these teams will struggle to reach this enormous number in the first half of Game 2.

Steph Curry returned to action in Game 4, and he scored 40 points (a record 17 in overtime) en route to a 132-125 victory. He made his first three-pointer in the third quarter, and he did the bulk of his scoring after that. After seeing so many high scores in Golden State's series versus Portland, the bookmakers have come out with an astronomically high total for Game 2 of the Western Conference Final. 

While there were several high scoring games in the Thunder's series versus San Antonio, not one of those games saw enough points to reach the total in tonight's game. In fact the Thunder held the Spurs to 100 points or less in five of the six games. It's not going to be easy to duplicate that success against the Warriors, but I wouldn't be surprised to see another close game at Oracle Arena. 

Take UNDER .

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on TOR@CLE to go UNDER the total. 

The Cavs have been unstoppable so far in these playoffs, but they come into Game 1 versus the Raptors off a long layoff. It's been nine days since they closed out the Hawks in a four game sweep in the Eastern Conference Semi Final. Game 4 of that series failed to reach 200 total points, as have five of Cleveland's last seven games in these playoffs. The Raptors are also trending toward the under, with six of their seven games against the Heat failing to reach a total of 200 points. Toronto finished the regular season with the NBA's 3rd best defense, allowing opponents to average just over 98 points per game. The emergence of center Bizmack Biyombo may make them even tougher, and they held the Heat to an average of 93.7 points in their last series. Biyombo isn't as much of a scorer as the injured Jonas Valancunias, but he's a dominant defender and an excellent rebounder. The Raptors have gone under in eight of their last nine on the road, and Cleveland has failed to reach the total in six of it's last seven when playing on three or more days of rest. The Cavs could be a little sluggish to start tonight's game, given the nine day layoff. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a Free #NBA play on the Golden State #Warriors.

The Oklahoma City Thunder shocked everyone with a stunning upset win in their second round series versus San Antonio. As impressive as they have looked, I still think they're going to be in way over their heads in the Western Conference Final. The Warriors had some ups and downs in their series versus Portland, but in the end they were able to overcome slow starts, closing out the Blazers in five games. 

Steph Curry returned to action in Game 4, and he scored 40 points (a record 17 in overtime) en route to a 132-125 victory. He made his first three-pointer in the third quarter, and he did the bulk of his scoring after that. The Warriors are looking for a second consecutive title after finishing with the best all time record in the NBA this season. They were expected to beat Portland, so there's no reason to expect a let down. That's not the case for the Thunder, who came out flat in Game 1 against the Spurs losing 124-92. 

The Thunder lost both meetings at Golden State during the regular season by a combined 22 points. They are likely to struggle here in Game 1. 

Take GS. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on OKC@GS to go UNDER the total. 

The Oklahoma City Thunder shocked everyone with a stunning upset win in their second round series versus San Antonio. As impressive as they have looked, I still think they're going to be in way over their heads in the Western Conference Final. The Warriors had some ups and downs in their series versus Portland, but in the end they were able to overcome slow starts, closing out the Blazers in five games. 

Steph Curry returned to action in Game 4, and he scored 40 points (a record 17 in overtime) en route to a 132-125 victory. He made his first three-pointer in the third quarter, and he did the bulk of his scoring after that. After seeing so many high scores in Golden State's series versus Portland, the bookmakers have come out with an astronomically high total for Game 1 of the Western Conference Final. 

While there were several high scoring games in the Thunder's series versus San Antonio, not one of those games saw enough points to reach the total in tonight's game. In fact the Thunder held the Spurs to 100 points or less in five of the six games. It's not going to be easy to duplicate that success against the Warriors, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Golden State struggle to shake off the rust coming off a layoff. The Warriors came out flat a few times in their series versus Portland, and it could take a while to get going in Game 1. 

Take UNDER .

GL, 

Jesse Schule 

This is an 8* play on the Toronto Raptors. 

The Raptors will host the Heat in a Game 7 on Sunday, and so far in these playoffs this Toronto team has been at it's best with it's back against the wall. We saw the Raptors prevail in a Game 7 at home in the first round versus Indiana. They out-scored Indiana 50-44 in the first half of that game, and another fast start will be crucial if they expect to advance to the Eastern Conference Final. 

DeMar DeRozan scored 30 points in the series finale versus the Pacers, and he led all scorers with 34 points in Game 5 of this series. Kyle Lowry went off for 36 points on 12-of-27 shooting in Game 6, and he was 3-for-5 from beyond the arc. With Toronto's star players firing on all cylinders, and Miami playing without starting center Hassan Whiteside, I think it's going to be tough for the Heat to compete on the road here. 

The Heat have been brutal on the road all year, and they've lost 2-of-3 at Toronto so far in this series. Miami is just 4-9 ATS in it's last 13 road games. 

Take TOR. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Miami Heat. 

It's rare to see The Iceman change teams in the middle of a playoff series, but Game 6 looks like a nightmare spot for the Raptors. The officials are clearly giving the Heat the benefit of the doubt on every close call, and Toronto is really going to struggle to score with a banged up DeMar Derozan and and DeMarre Carroll. Bizmack Biyombo has been great, but he doesn't pose as much of a threat as the injured Jonas Valancunias. 

Patrick Patterson started at PF in Game 5, and he scored just eight points on 3-of-12 shooting. He's having a terrible series, shooting just .335 and averaging just six points per game. The Raptors really have no answer for Dwayne Wade, who scored 68 points in Games 3 & 4 in Miami. The Heat are a dominant home team, and they've covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 in Miami. The Raptors don't do well in a let down spot, failing to cover in seven of their last nine coming off a win. 

Take MIA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on TOR@MIA to go UNDER the total.  

It's rare to see The Iceman change strategy in the middle of a playoff series, and even after just missing the under in Game 5, he's firing right back with "under" in Game 6. The officials are clearly giving the Heat the benefit of the doubt on every close call, and Toronto is really going to struggle to score with a banged up DeMar Derozan and and DeMarre Carroll. Bizmack Biyombo has been great, but he doesn't pose as much of a threat as the injured Jonas Valancunias. 

Patrick Patterson started at PF in Game 5, and he scored just eight points on 3-of-12 shooting. He's having a terrible series, shooting just .335 and averaging just six points per game. The Heat could be without Loul Deng in Game 6, and Hassan Whiteside remains sidelined with a knee injury. Toronto has failed to reach the total in eight straight road games, and 10 of it's last 13 overall. The under is 8-2 in Miami's last 10 overall. 

Take MIA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the San Antonio Spurs. 

The Spurs are on the ropes, facing elimination in Game 6 in Oklahoma City tonight. This is a similar spot to Game 3, coming off a tough home loss in Game 2, they were able to come up with a big 100-106 win on the road. I think history is going to repeat itself here, with the Spurs coming off a home loss in a game that they led almost the entire way. Kawhi Leonard was dominant in Game 5, scoring 26 points on 12-of-21 shooting. He also had five steals. He was even better in the Spurs Game 3 win at Oklahoma City, scoring 31 points and pulling in 11 rebounds. He's going to need to be big for the Spurs here in Game 6. Greg Popovich has no shortage of playoff (and championship) experience, and I think he's going to have his squad well prepared for this elimination game. The Thunder have a history of playoff collapses, and they were ousted at home in Game 6 versus the Spurs two seasons ago. In 2013 they were ousted at home in Game 5 versus the Grizzlies, and I still think the Spurs are likely to come back and win this series. 

Take SA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Toronto Raptors.

The Raptors blew a late lead in Game 4 in Miami, and they return home deadlocked at 2-2 in their series versus the Heat. Coming off such a tough loss, I expect Toronto to come out strong with a big first half in Game 5. Both teams have lost their starting center, but Toronto is in far better shape with Bizmack Biyombo scoring 13 points and pulling in 13 rebounds in 31 minutes in Game 4. The Raptors are also getting big minutes off the bench from Cory Joseph and Terrence Ross, who combined to score 28 points in the loss at Miami. With DeMar DeRozan battling a thumb injury, the pressure is on Kyle Lowry to carry the load. He scored 33 points on 11-of-19 shooting in Game 3, but he fouled out with just 10 points in Game 4. Expect a bounce back performance from the Raptors PG at home tonight. Four of five games in this series have gone to overtime, and still the total has gone under in each of the last three games. The Heat have gone under in eight of their last nine overall, and Toronto has failed to reach the total in 10 of it's last 12.

Take TOR.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MIA@TOR to go UNDER the total.

The Raptors blew a late lead in Game 4 in Miami, and they return home deadlocked at 2-2 in their series versus the Heat. Coming off such a tough loss, I expect Toronto to come out strong with a big first half in Game 5. Both teams have lost their starting center, but Toronto is in far better shape with Bizmack Biyombo scoring 13 points and pulling in 13 rebounds in 31 minutes in Game 4. The Raptors are also getting big minutes off the bench from Cory Joseph and Terrence Ross, who combined to score 28 points in the loss at Miami. With DeMar DeRozan battling a thumb injury, the pressure is on Kyle Lowry to carry the load. He scored 33 points on 11-of-19 shooting in Game 3, but he fouled out with just 10 points in Game 4. Expect a bounce back performance from the Raptors PG at home tonight. Four of five games in this series have gone to overtime, and still the total has gone under in each of the last three games. The Heat have gone under in eight of their last nine overall, and Toronto has failed to reach the total in 10 of it's last 12.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the San Antonio Spurs. 

The Spurs return home with their second round series versus Oklahoma City deadlocked at two games a piece. While the Thunder did steal a game in San Antonio in Game 2, they know it isn't going to be easy in this pivotal Game 5. This Spurs team was 40-1 at home during the regular season, and they held the Memphis Grizzlies to just 71 points per game in their first round series. Kevin Durant went off for 41 points in Game 4, but he was held to just 22 points per game in the two games in San Antonio. The Thunder had no answer for LaMarcus Aldridge in the first two games in San Antonio, he scored 38 points in Game 1, and 41 in Game 2. The series opener was a blowout, and the Thunder scored just 40 points in the first half, trailing by 33 points. I expect a similar outcome in Game 5, with the home team winning by double digits. 

Take SA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Portland Trailblazers.

I had a big bet on the Blazers in Game 3, and I am going back to the well here in Game 4 in Portland. Portland got off to a good start in the last game, and they remain undefeated at home in these playoffs. They have led at the half in all four of their home wins, and yet they are getting a handful of points against the wounded Warriors tonight. The Blazers looked dangerous in Game 2, opening up a huge early lead. Portland led by 11 after the first quarter, and went to the locker room at the half up by eight. The Warriors didn't appear to be concerned, after all, they've been able to come from behind to win games late all year long. If this game is close at halftime, Golden State will probably be saying "we've got them right where we want them". A good start is an absolute must for the Blazers here, and they've been great at home. Portland is 12-1 in it's last 13 home games. Damian Lillard was lights out in the last game, going off for 40 points. This is a confident young team and I expect them to make life difficult for the Warriors here. 

Take POR. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on TOR@MIA to go UNDER the total. 

The Raptors are back in the driver's seat after winning Game 3 in Miami, and they have to be encouraged by the play of Kyle Lowry. Their star PG has broken out of a slump, scoring 33 points on 11-of-19 shooting in the last game. He's going to need to carry the load with DeMar DeRozan banged up, and Jonas Valanciunas sidelined with an ankle injury. Toronto's center had been dominant in this series, scoring 55 points and pulling in 38 rebounds in 2.5 games. His replacement Bizmack Biyombo is also an excellent defender, but is nowhere near as dangerous offensively. Still this leaves the Raptors in better shape than Miami, who will really miss Hassan Whiteside. We've seen a trend of close, low scoring games so far in this series, with all three decided by six points or less. Two of the three games went under, with the only exception being Game 1, when Kyle Lowry hit a miracle shot from half court to force overtime. The Raptors have failed to reach the total in seven straight on the road, and the Heat have gone under in seven of their last eight overall. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Toronto Raptors. 

The Raptors are back in the driver's seat after winning Game 3 in Miami, and they have to be encouraged by the play of Kyle Lowry. Their star PG has broken out of a slump, scoring 33 points on 11-of-19 shooting in the last game. He's going to need to carry the load with DeMar DeRozan banged up, and Jonas Valanciunas sidelined with an ankle injury. Toronto's center had been dominant in this series, scoring 55 points and pulling in 38 rebounds in 2.5 games. His replacement Bizmack Biyombo is also an excellent defender, but is nowhere near as dangerous offensively. Still this leaves the Raptors in better shape than Miami, who will really miss Hassan Whiteside. We've seen a trend of close, low scoring games so far in this series, with all three decided by six points or less. We should expect another competitive game here. 

Take TOR. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Portland Trailblazers 1/H.

The Warriors head to Portland with a commanding lead in this series, but the Blazers looked dangerous in Game 2, opening up a huge early lead. Portland led by 11 after the first quarter, and went to the locker room at the half up by eight. The Warriors didn't appear to be concerned, after all, they've been able to come from behind to win games late all year long. A good start is an absolute must for the Blazers in Game 3, and they've been great at home. Portland is 11-1 in it's last 12 home games. They won all three home games in their first round series versus the Clippers, and they led at halftime in all three of those games. The Blazers are actually getting points in tonight's game, and if this game is close at the half, the Warriors would think they have the Blazers right where they want them. Expect Portland to get off to a good start.

Take POR.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the San Antonio Spurs. 

After crushing the Thunder in Game 1 of this series, the Spurs may have been guilty of taking their foot off the gas in Game 2. The Thunder won by a score of 98-97 and LaMarcus Aldridge scored 41 points in a losing effort: "It feels horrible," Aldridge said. "Feels like it was wasted. I've never been about trying to get points and not win; I always try to do things to win. If you win, it's totally a different feeling, but losing like that hurts."

The series shifts to Oklahoma City for a pivotal Game 3, and the Spurs can't afford to let the Thunder seize control of this series. San Antonio didn't have much trouble winning on the road this year, going 27-14 during the regular season. They've won twice in their last four visits to Oklahoma City, and they are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 when coming off a loss. 

The Thunder are tough at home, but they have already lost once at home in the playoffs, losing 84-85 in Game 2 of their first round series with Dallas. I expect San Antonio to play more like they did in the series opener, rather than how they played in Game 2. It's going to be quite difficult for the Thunder to match their defensive intensity 

Take SA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on CLE@ATL to go UNDER the total. 

After a low scoring battle in Game 1, the Cavs came out and set an NBA record with 25 made three-pointers in Game 2. You might as well just completely disregard what happened in the last game in Cleveland, and I think it's far more likely that Game 3 will be a lot more like Game 1. 

Three of Cleveland's last four games at Atlanta have failed to reach the total, and the only exception was a 110-108 overtime win for Cleveland. The first half of that game only saw a combined 96 points, and I don't expect any more scoring here in Game 3 in Atlanta. 

The Hawks were the best defensive team in the NBA after the All Star break, and they've gone under in seven of their last eight when coming off a loss. The under is 5-1 in Atlanta's last six home games, and 8-2 in the Hawks last 10 overall. 

Both of Cleveland's road games in these playoffs have gone under, and LeBron struggled in Detroit, scoring a total of 42 points on 17-of-43 shooting. He was just 2-of-12 from beyond the arc in those games.  

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Toronto Raptors. 

Toronto came out like gangbusters in the first half of Game 1, but despite a solid effort, Miami was able to keep it close. The Heat trailed by just two points at halftime, and they dominated play in the second half of Game 1, and then again in overtime. Now the Raptors are on the ropes, needing to salvage a split to stay in this series. It seems like Toronto has been in this same situation since the playoffs started, and so far they've managed to play their best basketball when their backs against the wall. We saw the Raptors drop Game 1 in their 1st round series versus the Pacers, only to win Game 2 in a rout (98-87). They out-scored Indiana 27-16 in the first quarter of that game, and took a five point lead to the locker room at the half. The Heat were brutal on the road all season long, and they lost two of three at Charlotte in the first round. They knew they needed to win in Toronto, and they should be quite content to go back to Miami with the series tied 1-1. The Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven coming off a loss, and the Heat are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. 

Take TOR. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MIA@TOR to go UNDER the total. 

The Raptors finally got the monkey off their backs, ending a 15 year run of playoff disappointment by escaping their first round series versus the Pacers. They overcame adversity, with stars Kyle Lowry and DeMar Derozan struggling with their shot through the entire series. It was strong defense and key contributions off the bench that powered the Raptors past Indiana. Only one of the seven games in that series went over the total, and we are likely to see more defensive battles in this series versus the Heat. 

Miami is coming off a blowout win in Game 7 over Charlotte, and they held the Hornets to just 74 points on 32.1 percent shooting in the series finale. The final four games of that series went under the total, and the Heat have failed to reach the total in five straight on the road. We've seen roughly 65% of the games in these playoffs go under, and the bookmakers have not been able to adjust quick enough. In fact, in games with a total of 195 or less, the under is 12-2-1. The total for tonight's Game 1 is still higher than it has been in two of the last three meetings between these two teams. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on OKC@SA to go UNDER the total. 

I took the under in Game 1, and here is what I said pregame: 

"The Oklahoma City Thunder had little trouble getting past the Mavs in the first round, winning the series in five games. The final three games in that series all went over, and the Thunder averaged 122 points in those games. They can't expect to enjoy that same success in San Antonio, where they lost both meetings during the regular season. Three of the four games in the season series went under, and the Spurs won 102-98 in overtime in the last meeting. San Antonio is by far the best defensive team in the NBA, allowing opponents to average just 92.9 points per game. They only allowed the Grizzlies to average 71 points in their two home games in the first round. The Thunder played well defensively in the first round, holding the Mavs to 93.8 points per game." 

While the Spurs defense was as good as I expected it to be, the Thunder just couldn't stop San Antonio from scoring. Oklahoma City will need to tighten things up here in Game 2, and I expect a much slower pace after the Thunder make adjustments. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on ATL@CLE to go UNDER the total. 

The Cavs have won seven straight against Atlanta, and they've held the Hawks to fewer than 100 points in regulation in all seven of those games. Both teams were impressive on defense in their respective first round matchups. The Hawks allowed Boston to average just 93.8 points per game, while the Cavs held Detroit to an average of 95 points per game. Atlanta has failed to reach the total in eight of it's last 10 overall, while the Cavs have gone under in five of their last six when coming off at least three days rest. The under is 23-11 in Cavaliers last 34 Conference Semifinals games. These teams played a low scoring contest in Game 1 of the East Finals last year, with Cleveland winning by a score of 97-89. I expect a similar looking score in Game 1 of this series. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on IND@TOR to go UNDER the total. This series has seen more than it's fair share of low scoring games, with five of the six games going under the total. We saw just 184 points scored in Game 6, and I really don't think we can expect more than that tonight in Game 7. Toronto did a decent job defending Paul George, holding him to 21 points on 5-of-14 shooting in Game 6. Indiana scored just nine points in the fourth quarter in Toronto in Game 5, but the total did go over for the first time in the series. Despite a heavy trend of low scoring games in these playoffs, and five of six games going under in this series, we still saw a higher total in Game 6 than we saw in Game 5. DeMar DeRozan is averaging just 15.8 points per game on 32.8 percent shooting in this series, while Kyle Lowry has shot just 27 percent from the field in three home games against the Pacers. Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on OKC@SA to go UNDER the total. 

The Oklahoma City Thunder had little trouble getting past the Mavs in the first round, winning the series in five games. The final three games in that series all went over, and the Thunder averaged 122 points in those games. They can't expect to enjoy that same success in San Antonio, where they lost both meetings during the regular season. Three of the four games in the season series went under, and the Spurs won 102-98 in overtime in the last meeting. San Antonio is by far the best defensive team in the NBA, allowing opponents to average just 92.9 points per game. They only allowed the Grizzlies to average 71 points in their two home games in the first round. The Thunder played well defensively in the first round, holding the Mavs to 93.8 points per game. 

Take UNDER GL, Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Charlotte Hornets. 

The Heat appeared to have complete control of this series, winning the first two games in Miami by a combined 44 points. The Hornets though are on the verge of eliminating Miami after winning three straight, including a 90-88 win at Miami in Game 5. The series shifts back to Charlotte, where the Hornets boast a 30-11 record this season. Miami has really struggled to be competitive on the road all year long, and have only covered once in their last nine away from home. Kemba Walker did not shoot the ball well in Miami, scoring just 14 points on 4-of-18 shooting. He scored 34 points in the last game in Charlotte though, and he should be a big factor tonight. Hassan Whiteside is banged up, and he only played 25 minutes in Game 4. The Hornets have been incredible defensively over the last three games, holding Miami to 84.3 per game on 38.6 percent shooting. Dwyane Wade only scored a total of 29 points on 11-of-31 shooting in the two games in Charlotte. This series should come to a conclusion here in Game 6. 

Take CHA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Toronto Raptors. 

The Raptors head back to Indiana with a chance to close out the Pacers in Game 6. So far home court hasn't been much of an advantage in this series, with both teams winning once on the road. The Pacers came very close in Game 5, but blew a 13 point lead in the fourth quarter. I think that such a demoralizing loss sets up Indiana for an emotional let down here tonight. The Raptors haven't had any trouble winning at Indiana, and they've covered the spread in nine of their last 11 at Bankers Field House. 

Indiana scored just nine points in the fourth quarter in Toronto in Game 5, but the total did go over for the first time in the series. Despite a heavy trend of low scoring games in these playoffs, and four of five games going under in this series, we still see a higher total in Game 6 than we saw in Game 5. DeMar DeRozan scored 34 points on 10-of-22 shooting in the last game, after struggling earlier in the series. This is a good sign moving forward for the Raptors, and I like their chances of eliminating the Pacers tonight. 

Take TOR. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on TOR@IND to go UNDER the total. 

The Raptors head back to Indiana with a chance to close out the Pacers in Game 6. So far home court hasn't been much of an advantage in this series, with both teams winning once on the road. The Pacers came very close in Game 5, but blew a 13 point lead in the fourth quarter. I think that such a demoralizing loss sets up Indiana for an emotional let down here tonight. The Raptors haven't had any trouble winning at Indiana, and they've covered the spread in nine of their last 11 at Bankers Field House. 

Indiana scored just nine points in the fourth quarter in Toronto in Game 5, but the total did go over for the first time in the series. Despite a heavy trend of low scoring games in these playoffs, and four of five games going under in this series, we still see a higher total in Game 6 than we saw in Game 5. DeMar DeRozan scored 34 points on 10-of-22 shooting in the last game, after struggling earlier in the series. This is a good sign moving forward for the Raptors, but still they've failed to reach the total in five straight road games. Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Hawks. 

After watching the Hawks just annihilate the Celtics in Game 5 in Atlanta, I think Boston is in big trouble heading back home for Game 6. Celtics leading scorer Isaiah Thomas scored just seven points on 3-of-12 shooting in 29 minutes in Game 5, and he is battling an ankle injury that will prevent him from being 100% for tonight's game. With second leading scorer Avery Bradley out with a hamstring injury, Boston really needs Thomas to carry the load offensively. The Hawks on the other hand have a ton of scoring depth, and they had five players score in double digits on Tuesday night. The Hawks had by far the best defense in the NBA since the All Star break, and the Celtics have averaged just 94 points in the first five games. Boston was very fortunate in Game 4, tying the game late to force overtime, but I think their luck is set to run out here in Game 6. 

The Celtics won the first game in the regular season series at home by a score of 106-93. The Hawks though won the next three, including a 109-101 win in Boston in December. Both games in Atlanta were blowouts, with the Hawks winning by a combined 35 points. Atlanta finished the season strong winning 15 of it's last 21, and 10 of it's last 12 at home. The Hawks final home game was a 118-107 win over the Celtics, and Paul Millsap scored 31 points and pulled in 16 rebounds in that game. The Celtics had no answer for Millsap in the regular season series, as he's averaged 22.5 points and 10.3 rebounds in the four games.

Take ATL. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on POR@LAC to go OVER the total. 

The last time I watched the Clippers play without Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, they won at Utah by a score of 102-99. That was a road win against one of the best defensive teams in the league, in a game that Utah needed to win in order to make the playoffs. Jamal Crawford led the way with 30 points on 9-of-20 shooting. It appeared that the Clippers strategy without their stars was to play a fast paced, high energy game, shooting a ton of threes. They were quite successful going 13-of-29 (44%) from beyond the arc.

Paul Pierce scored 18 points in 33 minutes in that game, and he was 4-of-5 from beyond the arc. The veteran has seen limited action so far this post-season, but expect to see more of "The Truth" tonight. These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight meetings, and seven of the last eight overall. The number in all of those games was well over 200, and tonight's total is roughly 10 points lower than it would be in normal circumstances. That may prove to be a case of the bookmakers over-compensating. 

Take OVER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on BOS@ATL to go UNDER the total. 

The Hawks took a 2-0 series lead to Boston, and after failing to reach the total in each of the first two games, the number in Game 3 was still over 200. The under is trending huge in these playoffs, and while the bookmakers have made some slight adjustments, I still think this number is way too high, especially when you consider that they only combined to score 161 points in the last game. 

The Hawks had by far the best defense in the NBA since the All Star break, and the Celtics have proven to be more than capable of playing defense as well. These teams have failed to score 200 points in three of the four games so far, and those were all regular season games. With an increased emphasis on defense in the post-season, they are even less likely to reach that number. 

Boston is missing second leading scorer Avery Bradley, and leading scorer Isaiah Thomas was held to just 16 points on 4-of-15 shooting in Game 2. The Under is 9-3 in Hawks last 12 Conference Quarterfinals games. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Charlotte Hornets. 

So far in this series between Miami and Charlotte, it looks like it's going to be very difficult for either team to win on the opponent's home floor. The first three games have all been blowouts, with Miami winning both home games by double-digits, only to lose by 16 in Game 3 at Charlotte. The Hornets were one of the hottest teams in the NBA in the second half of the season, and they were 31-11 at home. The Heat have really played poorly on the road all year long, but they know that as long as they can protect their home court advantage, they will win this series. That puts Charlotte in a must win situation here, and the Hornets should prove to be the more motivated team in Game 4. The home team has won eight of the last 10 in this series, and the Heat have failed to cover in seven of their last eight road games. After playing a limited role in the first two games of the series, rookie Frank Kaminsky stepped up in Game 3 scoring 15 points and pulling in half a dozen rebounds. 

Take CHA.

GL,

Jesse Schule.

This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Hawks. 

The Celtics got back into this series with a home win over the Hawks in Game 3, behind a 42 point effort from Isaiah Thomas. While Boston got off to a quick start in that game, it was still quite close in the end. If Boston is going to need 40+ points from Thomas, I don't like the Celtics chances here in Game 4, or for the remainder of the series. 

The Celtics won the first meeting between these teams this season at home by a score of 106-93. The Hawks though won the next three, including a 109-101 win in Boston in December. Both games in Atlanta were blowouts, with the Hawks winning by a combined 35 points. Atlanta finished the season strong winning 15 of it's last 21, and 10 of it's last 12 at home. The Hawks final home game was a 118-107 win over the Celtics, and Paul Millsap scored 31 points and pulled in 16 rebounds in that game. The Celtics had no answer for Millsap in the regular season series, as he's averaged 22.5 points and 10.3 rebounds in the four games. The loss of second leading scorer Avery Bradley has put even more pressure on Thomas, and he could have a tough time carrying the load here tonight. Atlanta led the league in defense in the second half of the season, and they have had some success slowing him down. He scored just 16 points on 4-of-15 shooting in Game 2. 

Take ATL. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on GS@HOU to go UNDER the total. 

The Warriors looked unstoppable of Game 1 of this series, beating Houston 104-78. They followed that up with another double-digit win at home in Game 2, despite the absence of MVP Steph Curry. It was a different story back in Houston for for Game 3, and the Rockets pulled off the upset winning 97-96. With Curry set to return for Game 4, the bookmakers have Golden State heavily favored this afternoon. 

I think it's important to remember that Curry played every game when these two teams met in last year's playoffs, and that series was a lot closer than most expected. Those games were for the most part quite close, and the scores were much lower than anticipated as well. The Warriors were held to 43 percent shooting in Game 3 without Curry, but they shot an even lower 42.9 percent in Game 1, and Curry scored 24 points on 8-of-13 shooting in that game. Coming off an injury, he may not be at 100 percent, and it could be a tough ask for him do any better than that here in Houston in Game 4. 

The Warriors have failed to reach the total in six straight road games, and they've gone under in 11 of their last 16 in Houston. They've also gone under in six of their last eight when coming off a loss. This is a huge game for both teams, and we should expect a solid defensive effort all the way around.

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Houston Rockets. 

The Warriors looked unstoppable of Game 1 of this series, beating Houston 104-78. They followed that up with another double-digit win at home in Game 2, despite the absence of MVP Steph Curry. It was a different story back in Houston for for Game 3, and the Rockets pulled off the upset winning 97-96. With Curry set to return for Game 4, the bookmakers have Golden State heavily favored this afternoon. 

I think it's important to remember that Curry played every game when these two teams met in last year's playoffs, and that series was a lot closer than most expected. Those games were for the most part quite close, and the scores were much lower than anticipated as well. The Warriors were held to 43 percent shooting in Game 3 without Curry, but they shot an even lower 42.9 percent in Game 1, and Curry scored 24 points on 8-of-13 shooting in that game. Coming off an injury, he may not be at 100 percent, and it could be a tough ask for him do any better than that here in Houston in Game 4. 

The Rockets are 20-6 in their last 26 games when playing on two days rest, and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Conference Quarterfinals games.

Take Houston. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on TOR@IND to go UNDER the total. 

After two low scoring games in Toronto, we saw these teams combine to score just 186 points in Game 3 in Indiana. The bookmakers adjusted with a lower opening total for Game 4, but public money has caused some late line movement, pushing the number right back up to where it was in Games 1 & 2. The trend throughout the playoffs so far has been low scoring games, and I see no reason for either of these two teams to open things up here tonight. With the Raptors up 2-1 and the series heading to Toronto for Game 5, a loss here would likely be the end for the Pacers. We should expect this to be another gritty defensive battle. The way DeMarre Carroll has played defense against Paul George, the Pacers might struggle on offense. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan continue to struggle with their shooting, and I just don't see anybody picking up any easy buckets here in a pivotal Game 4. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule 

This is a 10* play on SA@MEM to go OVER the total. 

The Spurs are in complete control of this series heading into Game 3 in Memphis, and I am not convinced that will change simply because Memphis is at home. That being said, they scored an average of just 71 points in the two games in San Antonio, and I expect them to show at the very least a modest improvement on offense. The under has been really trending in these playoffs, as 14 of 19 games so far have failed to reach the number. This has prompted the bookmakers to adjust, and we see a total in Game 3 that is 10 points lower than it was in Game 1. 

The over has been a good bet after the Grizzlies have suffered a double-digit loss, trending at a rate of 7-1-2. They've also played higher scoring games in Memphis, going over at a rate of 20-8-2 in their last 30 home games. The Spurs are still scoring their fair share of points, averaging 100 per game in the post-season. They are smoking hot from beyond the arc, hitting 19-of-39 three-pointers in Games 1-2. 

Take OVER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on ATL@BOS to go UNDER the total. 

The Hawks take a 2-0 series lead to Boston, and after failing to reach the total in each of the first two games, the number in Game 3 is still over 200. The under is trending huge in these playoffs, with 14 of the first 19 games failing to hit the total. While the bookmakers have made some slight adjustments, I still think this number is way too high, especially when you consider that they only combined to score 161 points in the last game. 

The Hawks had by far the best defense in the NBA since the All Star break, and the Celtics have proven to be more than capable of playing defense as well. These teams have failed to score 200 points in three of the last four meetings in Boston, and those were all regular season games. With an increased emphasis on defense in the post-season, they are even less likely to reach that number. 

Boston is missing second leading scorer Avery Bradley, and leading scorer Isaiah Thomas was held to just 16 points on 4-of-15 shooting in Game 2. The Under is 8-2 in Hawks last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on CLE@DET to go UNDER the total. Here is what I said prior to Game 2: "The Pistons made 15 three-pointers in Game 1, shooting a staggering 51.7 percent from beyond the arc. They shot better than 50% from the field, hanging around in a close game decided by just five points. I don't like their chances of scoring 100 here in Game 2, or for the rest of the series for that matter. The Cavs were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season, holding opponents to well below 100 points per game. The trend so far in these playoffs has been that points have been hard to come by. The under is 9-4 through the first 13 post-season games, and only one of five Game 2s has gone over. In fact, we've seen fewer points scored in Game 2 than in Game 1 in all five series that have played twice so far. The Pistons led by seven points early in the fourth quarter of Game 1, and that should be enough to convince the Cavs that they need to be a lot better defensively here in Game 2. The Pistons still think they can win this series: "We don't care who you put in front of us," Reggie Jackson said. "We fear nobody and experience is going to be our best teacher. We're going to learn on the fly. We think we have a chance." I expect a battle here in Game 2, with both teams grinding it out for every possession." The Pistons three-point shooting cooled off significantly in Game 2, hitting just 4-of-17 from beyond the arc. They were held to just 37 points in the second half, and I expect another defensive battle in the Motor City tonight. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on DET@CLE to go UNDER the total. 

The Pistons made 15 three-pointers in Game 1, shooting a staggering 51.7 percent from beyond the arc. They shot better than 50% from the field, hanging around in a close game decided by just five points. I don't like their chances of scoring 100 here in Game 2, or for the rest of the series for that matter. The Cavs were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season, holding opponents to well below 100 points per game. The trend so far in these playoffs has been that points have been hard to come by. The under is 9-4 through the first 13 post-season games, and only one of five Game 2s has gone over. In fact, we've seen fewer points scored in Game 2 than in Game 1 in all five series that have played twice so far. The Pistons led by seven points early in the fourth quarter of Game 1, and that should be enough to convince the Cavs that they need to be a lot better defensively here in Game 2. The Pistons still think they can win this series: "We don't care who you put in front of us," Reggie Jackson said. "We fear nobody and experience is going to be our best teacher. We're going to learn on the fly. We think we have a chance." I expect a battle here in Game 2, with both teams grinding it out for every possession.

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on BOS@ATL to go UNDER the total. 

The Hawks did everything I expected them to do in Game 1, until they nearly collapsed in the fourth quarter allowing Boston to get back into the game. Boston only managed to score 34 points in the first half, and the Celtics might struggle again in Game 2 without Avery Bradley, who is second in the team in scoring behind Isaiah Thomas. Bradley scored 18 points before getting injured in Game 1. 

So far in these playoffs seven of 11 games have failed to reach the total, including Atlanta's win in Game 1 of this series. These are two of the best defensive teams in the playoffs, and I expect to see an even lower score than what we saw in Game 1 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

There are those who follow the Zig Zag theory, that might think after the Mavericks got crushed in Game 1, they'll come out and compete that much harder, keeping it close in Game 2. I don't see any reason to follow the Zig Zag here, as I really don't think Dallas believes it has a chance in this series. They did well just getting into the playoffs, but this team is decimated by injury, and completely exhausted. J.J Barea had stepped up and played quite well in place of DWill, but now he's not going to be available for Game 2. I also don't see the likes of Durant and Westbrook taking their foot off the gas, and allowing Dallas to gain any momentum. Oklahoma City has won five straight in this series, and three of their last four wins have come by double digits. I expect another blowout of 20+ points. 

Take OKC. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on DET@CLE to go UNDER the total. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a big favorite in their first round series versus Detroit, and they will be asked to cover a double-digit spread in Game 1. The Pistons aren't going to lay down though, and I expect this to be a battle, with both teams playing tough defense from the opening tip off. 

The Pistons beat the Cavs in overtime in a meaningless game in the season finale, with both teams resting their starters. Prior to that, the Pistons won in Cleveland by a score of 96-88 in February. The Cavs were the 4th best defensive team in the league this season, and they've been particularly strong defensively when coming off a few days of rest. The under is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

It wasn't that surprising that all four playoff games on Saturday failed to reach the total, as history tells us that scoring does down in the post-season. The defenses tighten up, and you just don't see that many easy buckets. I don't think the bookmakers have properly adjusted here with a number higher than 200 for Game 1. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Hawks. 

The Celtics won the first meeting between these teams this season at home by a score of 106-93. The Hawks though won the next three, including a 109-101 win in Boston in December. Both games in Atlanta were blowouts, with the Hawks winning by a combined 35 points. Atlanta finished the season strong winning 15 of it's last 21, and 10 of it's last 12 at home. The Hawks final home game was a 118-107 win over the Celtics, and Paul Millsap scored 31 points and pulled in 16 rebounds in that game. The Celtics have had no answer for Millsap in the season series, as he's averaged 22.5 points and 10.3 rebounds in the four games. 

Boston had a losing record overall on the road this season (20-21), and down the stretch the Celtics lost six of their last 10 away from the Garden. They've only covered the spread twice in their last 14 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or better. Famously one of those two occasions was a shocking upset win at Golden State. I think this may be a contributing factor to Boston being one of the more overrated teams heading into these playoffs. 

The Celtics rely heavily on PG Isaiah Thomas for offense, and if Atlanta can shut him down, it will spell trouble for Boston. Atlanta led the league in defense in the second half of the season, and Thomas struggled in Atlanta in the last meeting scoring 16 points on 6-of-19 shooting. The Hawks have superior depth and talent, and I expect them to take care of business in Game 1. 

Take ATL. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on the Milwaukee Bucks ML. 

The Indiana Pacers have nothing to prove in their final game of the season, as they already know where they will play in the first round of the playoffs. We should expect the Pacers to rest their starters here in Milwaukee, but don't expect the Bucks to treat this like a meaningless game. After a frustrating season, finishing at home on a positive note would be big for the Bucks. They have a solid 23-17 home record, and should be more than capable of beating the Indiana bench players. Even at full strength, the Pacers aren't a great road team with a record of 18-22 outside Indiana. They've failed to cover the spread in four of their last five road games, and they have gone under in six straight when playing on back to back nights. The Bucks have gone under in seven of their last nine in Milwaukee. 

Take MIL. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MIA@BOS to go UNDER the total. 

The playoffs haven't started yet, but the atmosphere at the Garden should resemble a playoff game tonight when the Celtics host the Heat in the final game of the season. Home court advantage is up for grabs, and we should see both teams play with an added intensity tonight.  These teams have a history of playing defensive games, with five of the last six meetings going under. Only once in the last 10 meetings have we seen a total over 200, and they came up well short in that game with Boston winning 101-89 at home. Miami comes in as winners of four of it's last five, holding opponents well below 100 points in all four of those wins. The Celtics have failed to reach the total in nine of their last 12 when playing on one day's rest, and the Heat have gone under in four of their last five when playing on back to back nights. Miami has gone under in seven of it's last 10 overall. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on IND@MIL to go UNDER the totaL.

The Indiana Pacers have nothing to prove in their final game of the season, as they already know where they will play in the first round of the playoffs. We should expect the Pacers to rest their starters here in Milwaukee, but don't expect the Bucks to treat this like a meaningless game. After a frustrating season, finishing at home on a positive note would be big for the Bucks. They have a solid 23-17 home record, and should be more than capable of beating the Indiana bench players. Even at full strength, the Pacers aren't a great road team with a record of 18-22 outside Indiana. They've failed to cover the spread in four of their last five road games, and they have gone under in six straight when playing on back to back nights. The Bucks have gone under in seven of their last nine in Milwaukee. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on OKC@SA to go UNDER the total. 

Coming off three straight losses, you have to think Spurs coach Greg Popovich wants to give his team something to be positive about heading into the playoffs. They host Oklahoma City tonight, and the Thunder are expected to rest their starts. The last time Oklahoma City played at San Antonio, the Spurs won by a score of 92-85. 

The Thunder shot just 38.3 percent from the field in that game, and were just 2-of-18 from beyond the arc. I don't expect their backups to have any more success at the AT&T Center tonight. The Spurs have won three of their last four home meetings with Oklahoma City, and they held the Thunder to an average of just 88 points in those wins. 

The Spurs #1 ranked defense held Golden State to just 92 points on Sunday, but they couldn't stop the Warriors from winning their 72nd game of the season. I expect a similar effort on defense tonight, which should result in a convincing win over a short-handed opponent. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on BOS@ATL to go UNDER the total. 

The Celtics will play in Atlanta in the second game of a back to back, after beating up on Milwaukee at home last night. This is a huge game for both teams, with home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs up for grabs. The Celtics will have their work cut out for them, as Atlanta has really been on a roll. The Hawks have won 14 of their last 18 overall, and they held opponents under 100 points in 11 of those 14 wins. They rank 6th in the NBA with an opponent's scoring average of just 98.9 points per game, and they've held Boston below 100 points in three of their last four home meetings with the Celtics. These two teams have failed to reach the total in nine of the last 13 meetings in Atlanta. The Celtics have failed to reach the total in seven of their last nine overall, while the Hawks have gone under in nine of their last 12 home games. With such high stakes in tonight's game, we should expect to see both teams fighting hard on defense.

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MEM@DAL to go UNDER the total. 

The Mavs winning streak is now at five games heading into tonight's home game against Memphis. They have been dominant on defense during that span, holding opponents to just 86 points per game. The bookmakers have been slow to adjust to the fact that teams playing for playoff spots tend to tighten up the defense, and the total was over 200 in each game during the Mavs run. It appears that they've spotted the under trend, and have adjusted by shaving a few points off the number. I don't think they've adjusted enough though, as not one of the Mavs last five games has reached tonight's number. 

Their opponent tonight is down three key starters, including their PG Mike Conley. Memphis is not a great offensive team at the best of times, as one of just half a dozen NBA teams that fail to average 100 points per game. The Mavs are also down a starting PG, although J.J. Barea has been brilliant filling in for D-Will. Dirk Nowitzki is really struggling offensively, shooting just 23-of-84 over his last five games. Backup center Salah Mejri has been a defensive dynamo, with seven blocks in his last three games, despite averaging less than 20 minutes. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* (GOW) play on CHI@MIA to go UNDER the total. 

Last week's big bet in the NBA was on the under in a game between the Bulls and the Pistons, and that Bulls lost that game at home by a score of 94-90. They now sit 2.5 games back of the eighth and final playoff spot in the East, and whatever slim hopes they have will end tonight if they lose in Miami. The Heat are in a battle for one of the top four spots, trailing Boston by just half a game. Miami is coming off a 107-89 home win over the Pistons, putting on another defensive clinic. The Heat rank 4th in the NBA in opponent's scoring average, surrendering just 98.3 points per game. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, failing to reach the total in six of the last eight. Nine of those 10 games saw a total below 200, and tonight's total is far higher than it was in any of those previous games. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Houston Rockets. 

The Rockets are down, but they aren't dead yet! They put up a hell of a fight last night in Dallas, but came up just short losing 88-85. That score fell well short of the inflated total, and here is what I said prior to tip off: "Houston is one of the league's highest scoring teams, but as they've been battling for a playoff spot, they've trended toward lower scoring games, failing to reach the total in six of their last eight." They played pretty well defensively last night, holding the Mavs to 88 points on 41.3 percent shooting. They should continue to play strong defense against Phoenix, a team that has scored an average of 96 points per game while losing six straight. PG Brandon Knight is done for the season, and that's not going to help the Suns offense any. The Mavs are two games clear of Houston after last night's win, and Utah is one game up on the Rockets. The two teams play each other before the end of the season, ensuring that one of the two will lose ground. The good news for the Rockets is that they have a much easier schedule than the two teams ahead of them, so we should still see a solid effort here at home tonight. 

Take HOU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on HOU@DAL to go UNDER the total. 

The Rockets and the Mavericks will play a Titanic game in Dallas tonight, with the eighth and Final playoff spot in the West up for grabs. The Mavs have won four straight, putting them in seventh in the West, one game ahead of Houston. During that span they've put on a defensive clinic, holding opponents to an average of just 86 points. The Rockets are on the outside looking in, sitting in ninth. Houston is one of the league's highest scoring teams, but as they've been battling for a playoff spot, they've trended toward lower scoring games, failing to reach the total in six of their last eight. They don't score quite as much on the road, and they've gone under in four straight away from Houston. We should see a cautious approach from two teams fighting for their lives, and tonight's total appears to be a little inflated. As I have said several times this week: "I think the bookmakers have failed to take this into consideration when they come out with such a high total. Teams battling for survival tend to play a lot tougher defense, and both these teams have been playing low scoring games of late." 

Take UNDER. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on DET@ORL. 

After a lopsided loss at Miami last night, the Pistons have slid all the way to eighth in the Eastern Conference, clinging to the final playoff spot. They have a two game lead on the ninth place Bulls, but they can't afford to keep losing or they could miss the playoffs all together. A win in Orlando tonight would give them plenty of breathing room, and I expect to see a solid effort. Detroit has failed to score 100 points in five straight games, and it has only surrendered an average of 97.8 points during that span. These two teams have a history of playing high scoring games, going over the total in six of the last seven meetings. Tonight's total is significantly higher than it was in any of those games, and there's a lot more at stake for the Pistons here tonight. The Pistons have gone under in nine of their last 11 road games, and five straight overall. They have won three straight in this series, holding the Magic to an average of 96 points in those games. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on DET@MIA to go UNDER the total. 

The Heat host the Piston tonight in a game with massive playoff implications. The Heat are fighting for home court advantage in the first round, while Detroit still needs to clinch one of the last spots in the East. The Pistons have won each of the previous two meetings this season, and both those games went under the total. I bet on the under in Detroit's last game, a 94-90 win over the Bulls in Chicago. 

Here is what I said prior to tip off: "I think the bookmakers have failed to take this into consideration when they come out with such a high total. Teams battling for survival tend to play a lot tougher defense, and both these teams have been playing low scoring games of late. The Pistons lost at home to Dallas last night, three days after beating the Thunder 88-82. Detroit has failed to reach the total in seven of it's last nine on the road, while the Bulls have gone under in five straight. The total for tonight's game is significantly higher than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings" 

It's a similar situation here tonight, and we see another inflated total in a game that appears to feature two teams trending toward low scoring games. The under is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Miami. The Heat have failed to reach the total in four of their last five, while Detroit has gone under in eight of it's last 10 road games. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on VILL@UNC to go UNDER the total.

Both the Wildcats and the Tar Heels were executing on offense in their final four wins, and each team put plenty of points on the board. Still, neither team came even close in their respective Final Four games to reaching the inflated total for Monday's Final. When you get deep into the tournament, the stakes get higher, and that usually means the defense clamps down even more. The Wildcats defense has been particularly impressive, allowing opponents to average just 60.6 points on 42 percent shooting in the tournament so far. This will be the third time since 2010 that the Championship Game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston. Because these games are being played in a football stadium, it is thought to change to the depth perception of the shooters, bringing down scoring averages. This is what's known as the "Dome Effect". Both ESPN and the New York Times published articles discussing this phenomenon over the last few days, and I noticed one interesting stat from ESPN. According to their FiveThirtyEight article, in 12 NCAA Tournament games played at NRG Stadium, teams have scored an average of 65.4 points ON 44.5 percent shooting. In order to reach tonight's total, both teams would have to eclipse that average by at least 10 points.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on BOS@LAL to go UNDER the total. 

The Celtics come into LA as winners of five of their last seven, but given the magnitude of their upset win at Golden State, we could see Boston suffer a let down here. The Lakers won their last game 102-100 in overtime versus Miami, but it would be a mistake to think that this team is anything other than a steaming hot mess. They lost four straight prior to the win over the Heat, and they've scored an average of just 95.4 points per game over their last five. Both teams could suffer a let down here tonight, and the Celtics have failed to reach the total in seven straight coming off an ATS win. They've also gone under in eight of their last nine when playing on one day's rest, and five of their last six overall. The Lakers have also been trending toward the under, failing to reach the total in 10 of their last 13 home games. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule