This is an 8* play on DAL@MIN to go UNDER the total. 

The Mavs have won three straight, putting them back in the hunt for one of the final playoff spots in the West. The recipe for their success has been strong defensive play, as they've allowed opponents to average just 88.7 points per game during this winning streak. I think the bookmakers have failed to take this into consideration when they come out with such a high total. Teams battling for survival tend to play a lot tougher defense, and both these teams have been playing low scoring games of late.

Minnesota has lost three of four, and they were held to an average of just 82.6 points in those losses. These teams have failed to reach the total in four of the last five head to head meetings, and four of the last five at Minnesota have gone under. With so much at stake for the Mavs, expect to see a battle for each possesion, with no easy buckets conceded. Dallas has been great on the road against inferior opposition, and the under is 9-3 in their last 12 road games versus teams with a losing record. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* (GOY) play on DET@CHI to go UNDER the total.

Down but not out, the Chicago Bulls have shown a lot of character winning back-to-back road games to keep their playoff hopes alive. They host the Detroit Pistons tonight, and the Pistons are one of the teams they are trying to catch. They trail eighth place Indiana by one game, and they are 1.5 games back of Detroit. That means that tonight's game might as well be a playoff game, because the stakes don't get any higher.

I think the bookmakers have failed to take this into consideration when they come out with such a high total. Teams battling for survival tend to play a lot tougher defense, and both these teams have been playing low scoring games of late. The Pistons lost at home to Dallas last night, three days after beating the Thunder 88-82. Detroit has failed to reach the total in seven of it's last nine on the road, while the Bulls have gone under in five straight. The total for tonight's game is significantly higher than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* (GOM) play on the Villanova Wildcats. 

The Oklahoma Sooners have had an impressive journey to the Final Four, and there's no denying that they deserve to be here. They have yet to play an opponent as dangerous as Villanova though. Oregon's a great team, but the Ducks don't play defense like the Wildcats, and their schedule in the Pac12 isn't as challenging. Prior to beating Oregon, the Sooners had failed to cover in seven of their previous eight. 

They played close games against the likes of VCU, Hawaii and failed to dominate versus California Bakersfield. They've survived mostly due to Buddy Heild, who has averaged 30 points over his last three games. This is something that won't be unnoticed by Villanova, and if the Cats can slow down Heild, they'll likely be booking a ticket to the championship game. West Virginia held Buddy to just six points on 1-of-8 shooting in the Big12 tournament, and I expect Villanova to try to replicate that performance. They certainly executed their defensive game plan against Kansas, completely shutting down Perry Ellis in their Elite 8 victory. 

Villanova has been clinical at the free throw line in the tournament so far, hitting 82.7 percent. That could be the difference in this game, as the Sooners have hit below 70 percent from the charity stripe over their last five games. The Wildcats are holding opponents to just 64.2 points per game over their last five, pretty impressive when you consider they played Kansas, Miami, Iowa and Seton Hall during that span. The Sooners are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games versus teams with a winning record, and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games. 

Take VILL. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MIN@UTAH to go UNDER the total. 

This is an absolute do or die game for the Jazz, and I expect them to put on a defensive clinic against a Minnesota team that is just going through the motions. The Timberwolves are coming off a 99-79 home loss to the Clippers, and they lost at home to Utah by a score of 93-84 last Saturday. These teams have gone over the total in three of the last seven meetings, but only one of those games saw enough points to reach tonight's total. That game was a 106-104 overtime win for Minnesota last March. The Jazz have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 10 overall, and six of their last eight at home. They held the defending champions Golden State to 89 points in regulation in their last game, and they've held five of their last seven opponents to fewer than 90 points. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule 

This is a 6* play on the Nevada Wolfpack. 

Nevada will host Morehead State in the CBI Final on Friday, and the Wolfpack have covered the spread in each of the first two games in this series. After losing by just three points at Morehead State, they won by 11 at home on on Wednesday. I had Nevada in that game, and here is what I said prior to tip off: "The Wolfpack lost a tough game at Morehead State in the CBI Tournament Finals, but they didn't miss by much, covering the spread in a game decided in the final seconds. They return home for the second game of the series, and I think they''ll be in good shape on their home court. The Wolfpack have been dominant at home this season, boasting a 14-3 record, with several impressive wins over the likes of New Mexico, UNLV and Fresno State. They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 at home, and I've cashed in on seven of those nine wins" The Eagles shot just 37.7 percent from the field, and 54.2 percent from the free throw line on Wednesday, and I just don't see them upsetting the Wolfpack here in the Final. 

Take NEV. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule 

This is a 10* play on the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Celtics are coming off a blowout loss at the Staples Center, losing to the Clippers by a whopping 24 points. They will face the Blazers in Portland tonight, in their first game of a back to back. This is a terrible spot for Boston, as they will undoubtedly be looking ahead to tomorrow's game against the NBA's #1 team at Golden State. As difficult as it is for opposing teams at Oracle Arena, playing in Portland is no picnic. Boston hasn't had much success on the road lately, going 1-6 ATS in it's last seven road games. The Celtics are also a woeful 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games versus teams with a winning home record. The Blazers are 24-12 in Portland this season, and that comes after a slow start. Boston has struggled offensively without Jay Crowder, averaging just 100.7 points per game while going 4-5 since his injury. The Blazers have won five straight at home, scoring an average of 112 points in those victories.

Take POR.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on CHI@HOU to go UNDER the total. 

The Houston Rockets have a reputation for playing high scoring games, but we normally see teams tighten up come playoff time, and that's certainly been the case for Houston. The Rockets are currently in a three way tie with Utah and Dallas, with all three teams battling for the final two spots in the Western Conference. The Rockets have struggled, winning just twice in their last six games. They failed to reach the total in all but one of those games. 

They host the Chicago Bulls, who are also fighting for their lives. Chicago is still two games back of Indiana for the last spot in the East, but they kept their hopes alive with a 98-86 win at Indiana on Tuesday. The Bulls have gone under in six of their last seven overall. Chicago has won three of the last four in this series, and Houston has scored an average of just 98 points in those games. 

This is essentially a do or die game for both teams, which should mean no easy points. Expect both teams to play intense defense on every possession, and with a sky high total, I expect them to come up well short of the number. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Valparaiso Crusaders. 

I cashed in with my NIT Game of the Year on Valparaiso in their win over BYU, and here is what I said prior to tip off: "Valparaiso stunned the St. Mary's Gaels in a 60-44 win in the NIT quarterfinals last week. It was the lowest point total of the year for a St. Mary's team that finished at the top of the WCC standings. The Crusaders will face the third place team from the WCC in the NIT semifinals, and I think the BYU Cougars are a little overrated coming into MSG."

"The Crusaders don't mind playing away from home, boasting a road record of 12-4. One of those losses was a close game at Oregon, and impressive result considering the season the Ducks had. Last week's impressive defensive effort against the Gaels shouldn't really be a surprise, as they've held opponents to an average of just 63.5 points on 38.9 percent shooting this season."

The first half of that game went exactly has I had expected it to, but as we've seen so many times in the post-season, the Cougars rallied to erase an enormous deficit, and actually took the lead in the second half. Unlike Virginia, Northern Iowa, and Gonzaga, the Crusaders maintained their composure and held on for the win. They host George Washington in the Final, and I think the Colonials are playing way over their heads. 

Superior defense, better free throw shooting and an edge on the boards should help Valparaiso cruise to a victory here. 

Take VALP. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MIA@LAL to go UNDER the total. 

After a string of uncharacteristically high scoring games, the Miami Heat got back to business on Friday, defeating the Orlando Magic by a score of 108-97. They followed that up with another under in a home win over Brooklyn three days later. I cashed in with the winning total in both those games, and I still think bookmakers are offering an inflated total in tonight's game at LA. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, failing to reach the total in four of the last five meetings, and nine of the last 11. Most of those games saw a total below 200, and only once did we see a number as high as we see tonight. They've failed to reach the total in four straight meetings at the Staples Center, and the Lakers failed to score 100 points in all of those games. The Heat only broke the century mark once during that span, and that was a 101-95 win on Christmas Day 2013. Miami's defense is ranked 4th in the NBA, allowing opponents to average just over 98 points per game. The Lakers offense is ranked 29th, and they scored just 70 points on 30.6 percent shooting in a home loss to the Wizards on Monday. Rumors of a divided locker room have surfaced, and a rookie PG DeAngelo Russell is at the center of the controversy. The 19 year old appears to be responsible for secretly recording a private conversation with a teammate, and the embarrassing contents of that conversation have since become public. This is a complete disaster for the Lakers, and a situation that isn't going to go away any time soon. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on the Nevada Wolfpack. 

The Wolfpack lost a tough game at Morehead State in the CBI Tournament Finals, but they didn't miss by much, covering the spread in a game decided in the final seconds. They return home for the second game of the series, and I think they''ll be in good shape on their home court. The Wolfpack have been dominant at home this season, boasting a 14-3 record, with several impressive wins over the likes of New Mexico, UNLV and Fresno State. They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 at home, and I've cashed in on seven of those nine wins. 

Morehead State plays in an inferior conference, and still comes in with a losing record on the road. Nevada plays better defense, averages more rebounds and shoots the ball for a higher percent from three-point range as well as the free throw line. The Eagles were just 4-of-16 from beyond the arc and shot just 66 percent from the free throw line in Monday's game. That's not going to cut it here on the road in the rematch. 

Take NEV. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule. 

This is a 7* play on the San Diego State Aztecs 

The Aztecs are the creme of the crop in the Mountain West, and they finished the year with a 16-2 conference record. They face a George Washington team that finished 5th in the A-10, with a conference record of 11-7 in the NIT Semi Finals in New York. The Aztecs come in as one of the best defensive teams in the country, allowing opponents to average just 60.7 points on 37 percent shooting this season. They have crushed the opposition so far in the NIT, holding two of three opponents to fewer than 60 points. Their most recent victory was particularly impressive, beating and ACC team (Georgia Tech) by a whopping 16 points. They held the Yellow Jackets to just 56 points on 22-of-50 shooting. They out-rebounded Georgia Tech 32-20, pretty impressive when you consider the size of the Yellow Jackets front court. This looks like a mismatch, and I think San Diego State will prove to be in a completely different class than it's opponent here. 

Take SDSU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on HOU@CLE to go UNDER the total. 

The Rockets head to Cleveland in a desperate situation, currently in an eighth place tie with the Dallas Mavericks for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The good news is, they've actually owned the Cavs in recent years, winning six of the last seven meetings. More good news is that the Cavs have decided to rest LeBron James tonight. They recently rested James in a home game against Dallas, and just barely beat the Mavs by a score of 99-98. Cleveland hasn't done well at all when James doesn't play, failing to cover in 14 of 15 games since 2014. They failed to reach the total in 12 of those 15 games. Despite that, tonight's total is sky high, in fact higher than any of the previous 10 meetings between the two teams. Houston has been playing low scoring games lately, failing to reach the total in four of it's last five overall, and four of it's last five on the road. The Cavs have gone under in five of their last six when playing one two day's rest. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a Free #NBA play on CHI@IND to go UNDER the total.

The Bulls are coming off a heartbreaking 102-100 home loss to Atlanta last night, which puts them 2.5 games back of the Pistons, who currently hold the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. They have nine games left two play, but six of those will be played on the road.  Tonight's game at Indiana looks like a let down spot for the banged up Bulls, and the Pacers are one of the teams they are trying to catch. The Pacers have won three straight home games, limiting opponents to an average of just 86 points in those victories. 

These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games, as five of the last six meetings have failed to reach the total. The one exception was a home win for the Bulls, winning by a score of 102-100 in overtime. They've failed to cover in five straight at Indianapolis, and all five of those games went under the total. The Bulls are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games, and they've failed to cover in four of their last five when playing in a back to back situation. The Pacers have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven home games, while the Bulls have gone under in seven of their last 10 road games. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Valparaiso Crusaders. 

Valparaiso stunned the St. Mary's Gaels in a 60-44 win in the NIT quarterfinals last week. It was the lowest point total of the year for a St. Mary's team that finished at the top of the WCC standings. The Crusaders will face the third place team from the WCC in the NIT semifinals, and I think the BYU Cougars are a little overrated coming into MSG. The Cougars just barely escaped with a home win over Creighton on Tuesday. The Crusaders don't mind playing away from home, boasting a road record of 12-4. One of those losses was a close game at Oregon, and impressive result considering the season the Ducks had. Last week's impressive defensive effort against the Gaels shouldn't really be a surprise, as they've held opponents to an average of just 63.5 points on 38.9 percent shooting this season. That's 10 points less than the Cougars have given up, and opponents are shooting 42 percent against BYU. The Crusaders have been far better from the free throw line all season long, and they average over 75 percent at neutral sites. They also have an edge in rebounding, and I think this is going to create all sorts of problems for the Cougars. 

Take VAL. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on LAL@UTAH to go UNDER the total. 

The Jazz are coming off a commanding 93-84 win at Minnesota, and they'll need to keep the ball rolling tonight as they are just one game ahead of the 9th place Dallas Mavericks, and half a game up on Houston. They will host the struggling LA Lakers, who have lost seven of their last eight. The Lakers are playing on back to back nights, coming off a 101-88 home loss to the Wizards last night. Both Kobe Bryant and DeAngelo Russell are playing through injuries, and playing on no rest isn't going to be easy, especially against one of the top defenses in the league. Utah is the second lowest scoring team in the NBA, but it makes up for it with stellar defense. The Jazz have held opponents to an average of just 89.7 points and 7.0 makes from 3-point range over it's last nine games. The Jazz have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven overall, and five of their last six at home. Utah has trended under at a rate of 28-13-1 in it's last 42 home games versus teams with a losing road record.

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Hawks M/L. 

The Hawks are on a roll, coming into Chi-Town as winners of eight of their last nine. They can clinch a playoff spot tonight at the expense of the struggling Bulls, and at this point you have to think that Chicago has accepted it's fate. The Bulls playoffs chances have dropped significantly after losing back to back games to the Knicks, followed by a loss at Orlando. The Bulls have lost five of their last six versus Atlanta, and two of their last three home games against the Hawks. "Obviously, we're really struggling right now," forward Mike Dunleavy said. "We look like a team that's lost in terms of doing the things you need to do. It's a lot of stuff. We have to find our way. We've had success in the past, but it's going to be tough right now." The Hawks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, while Chicago is 5-24 ATS in their last 29 versus the NBA Southeast.

Take ATL. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Memphis Grizzlies. 

The Grizz are all banged up, missing starters Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Even with their thin lineup, they gave the Spurs a run for their money in a 110 -104 loss at San Antonio on Friday. LaMarus Aldridge proved to be the difference in that game, as the Grizzlies simply couldn't stop him. He scored 32 points on 12-of-16 shooting, and pulled in a dozen rebounds. Greg Popovich rested his starters in a 111-92 loss at Oklahoma City on Saturday, and we don't expect to see the starters log a lot of minutes here in Memphis. The visitors are asked to cover an awful big spread here in a meaningless game, and I think Memphis is very likely to win this game outright. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games versus teams with a winning home record. The Grizz are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.

Take MEM. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on BKN@MIA to go UNDER the total. 

After a string of uncharacteristically high scoring games, the Miami Heat got back to business on Friday, defeating the Orlando Magic by a score of 108-97. I bet on the under in that game, and here is what I had to say prior to tip off: "The Heat rank 4th in the NBA with an opponent's scoring average of just 98.2 points per game. They are particularly strong at home, boasting a record of 23-13. These two teams have gone over the total in six of the last 10 meetings, but the total for tonight's game is about 10 points higher than it was in any of those previous contests."

We see a similar situation tonight, as the Heat will host bottom feeders Brooklyn. Seven of the last 10 meetings have gone over, but the total in those games was at least 10 points lower than tonight's number. Only one of those 10 games saw enough points to reach tonight's total, and that game was a home win for Brooklyn. The Nets are coming off back to back home wins, setting them up for a let down here in Miami. The Under is 7-3 in Heat last 10 home games versus teams with a losing road record. Sitting just half a game behind Boston, and a half game ahead of the surging Hornets, this is a key game for Miami in the playoff race. We should expect the Heat to put on a defensive clinic here tonight. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a Free #NBA play on CHA@MIL to go UNDER the total.

Ladies and gentlemen.. it's DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN this March. If anyone thinks for even a second that The Iceman's recent success is the product of "luck", "chance" or "coincidence"... THINK AGAIN!

- March 2013: 89-60 +$10,549
- March 2014: 72-48 +$6,058
- March 2015: 97-58 +$13,219
- March 2016: 56-32 +$12,939

The Milwaukee Bucks will return home after three straight losses on the road, and they host the red hot Charlotte Hornets. While the Hornets came up just short in Detroit last night, they've won 17 of their last 22 overall. One reason for Charlotte's success in it's top 10 ranked defense, that allows opponents to average just 101 points per game. The Bucks don't often reach the century mark, and they come in averaging just 92.5 points per game while losing five of their last six overall. 

These teams have failed to reach the total in each of the last four meetings, and despite that the number in tonight's game is actually higher than it was in any of those previous contests. The Hornets have gone under in five of their last seven overall, and Milwaukee has failed to reach the total in six of it's last seven. The under is 6-0 in Bucks last 6 versus teams with a winning straight up record. One contributing factor to Milwaukee's trend of low scoring games is that it ranks dead last in the NBA in made three-pointers. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Kansas Jayhawks. 

I have a ton of respect for the Villanova Wildcats, who have played as well as anyone in the tournament so far. The fact is, I know the Wildcats have weaknesses, and the same is a lot more difficult to say about Kansas. As well as Villanova played in their blowout win over Miami, they did allow the Hurricanes to shoot 52.3 percent from the field, and 58.8 percent from three-point range. They got away with a less than stellar defensive effort because they barely missed a shot themselves, and they dominated Miami on the boards. They won't get away with that here against Kansas, a team that is perhaps the biggest, most athletic in the country. The Jayhawks aren't just winning, they are covering the spread as well, going 14-3 ATS in their last 17 overall. Kansas is cruising, coming off 17 straight wins, 11 of those in games decided by at least 10 points. Kansas is 9-1 ATS in it's last 10 neutral site game, and has won 10 of 11 at neutral sites this season. The Jayhawks are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 non-conference games.

Take KAN. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on North Carolina. 

The ACC is still the strongest conference in the country, and that's not even debatable. Last year's Champions Duke were on of three ACC teams to reach the Elite 8, and this year the ACC will send five teams to the Sweet 16. Four of those five teams will be a favorite in their next game, and one of those is the Tar Heels who play Indiana on Friday. 

The Hoosiers showed a lot of grit beating Kentucky, but they could be due for a let down here against a tougher opponent. It will be an even tougher task if sophomore guard Robert Johnson isn't healthy. Johnson left the last game with an ankle injury, and it looked pretty ugly. Early reports suggest that he's going to try to play through the pain, but this has been a lingering injury that caused him to sit out of the BIG10 Tournament, and Indiana got knocked out in the first round by Michigan. 

The Tar Heels physically dominated Providence, out-rebounding the Friars 42-24. They shot 52.5 percent from the field, and scored 19 of their 85 points at the free throw line. North Carolina is significantly better from the charity stripe, hitting 78.9 percent over it's last five games, and hitting 77.8 percent at neutral sites this year. If Indiana commits fouls, the Tar Heels will make them pay. 

Take UNC. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on GONZ@SYR to go OVER the total.

The Orange faded at the end of the regular season, losing five of their last eight (before the tournament). They allowed opponents to average 71.5 points during that span, and now they will face a Gonzaga team that has been an offensive juggernaut of late. The Bulldogs come in averaging a whopping 83 points on 51.8 percent shooting over their last five games.

Gonzaga's inexperienced guards have grown a lot since the beginning of the season, and now this team is firing on all cylinders. Senior guard Eric McClennan scored 22 points in the win over Utah, hitting both his three-point attempts. While he doesn't take a lot of shots, he's a sizzlin' 9-of-16 from beyond the arc in his last five games. The Bulldogs are hitting a staggering 42.6 percent from beyond the arc during that span.

While Syracuse is a team known to play solid defense, it's allowing almost 70 points per game at neutral sites this season. The Orange have gone over the total in 12 of their last 15 at neutral sites.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on ORL@MIA to go UNDER the total. 

The Magic come into Miami as losers of five in a row, and they'll have a tough time here against one of the top defensive teams in the league. The Heat rank 4th in the NBA with an opponent's scoring average of just 98.2 points per game. They are particularly strong at home, boasting a record of 23-13. These two teams have gone over the total in six of the last 10 meetings, but the total for tonight's game is about 10 points higher than it was in any of those previous contests. They've scored fewer points in Miami, as the under is 7-3 in Orlando's last 10 trips to American Airlines Arena. The Magic have also been riding an under trend on the road, failing to reach the total in six of their last seven away from Orlando. The Heat managed just 88 points in a loss at San Antonio in their last game, their lowest points total in 27 games. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Notre Dame #Irish.

Both Wisconsin and Notre Dame needed a bit of luck to get to the Sweet 16, as each team rallied from behind in the dying seconds of their last games. The Badgers upset win over Xavier was particularly impressive, so much so that the bookmakers are putting them near level with a Notre Dame team that has a better record, and played a far tougher schedule. This is what we call "recency bias", as it appears the line reflects Wisconsin's recent performances, while ignoring the overall body of work. I think the Irish should be asked to cover at least 3-5 points here. 

Notre Dame won a dozen games in the ACC, while Wisconsin won 12 games in the BIG10. There's a big difference between beating up on the likes of Illinois, Rutgers, Minnesota, Penn State and Nebraska, or winning games against the likes of #9 ranked Duke at Cameron Indoor, and #2 ranked North Carolina at home. The Badgers are going to need to play a perfect game just to keep it close, and even that might not be enough. 

Notre Dame scores more points, shoots for a far higher field goal percentage, significantly better three-point shooting, and they've been better on the boards. The one stat that might kill Wisconsin more than anything else, is that the Irish have hit better than 75 percent of their free throws over their last five games, while the Badgers have hit just 66 percent during that span. 

Take ND. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Virginia Cavs (GOW). 

The ACC is still the strongest conference in the country, and that's not even debatable. Last year's Champions Duke were on of three ACC teams to reach the Elite 8, and this year the ACC will send five teams to the Sweet 16. Four of those five teams will be a favorite in their next game. I think the strongest of the five might be the Virginia Cavs, and I bet on Virginia in their last game against Butler.  

Here is what I had to say before the game: "The Cavs are one of the hottest teams in the country, coming off a blowout win over the Hampton Pirates in the first round of the tournament. They finished second in the ACC behind North Carolina with a record of 13-5, and they lost a close game by a score of 61-57 to UNC in the ACC Championship Game. They had won five in a row prior to that, and one of those was a home win over North Carolina by a score of 79-74." 

Virginia will face Iowa State in Chicago on Friday, and the Cyclones did not finish the season strong at all. They lost their last five games away from home to Texas Tech, Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas and Oklahoma. They had a pretty soft start to the tournament, with wins over 13th seeded Iona, and 12th seeded Arkansas Little Rock. One of the biggest weaknesses for Iowa State is a lack of depth, as they really don't get much production from their bench. While it didn't hurt them against lesser opponents, it's very likely that it will be a factor against the best defensive team remaining in the tournament. The Cavs have allowed opponents to average just 58.2 points per game, while winning eight of nine games at neutral sites. 

Take UVA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. 

The ACC is still the strongest conference in the country, and that's not even debatable. Last year's Champions Duke were on of three ACC teams to reach the Elite 8, and this year the ACC will send six teams to the Sweet 16. Four of those teams will be a favorite in their next game. The defending champions Duke will actually be getting points against the Pac12 champs Oregon, and I strongly disagree with the line here. 

In my opinion people are failing to account for the fact that Duke had a much tougher schedule, playing the likes of Louisville, Virginia and North Carolina. Oregon's wins over the likes of Utah, Arizona and California pale in comparison. Duke lost 10 games during the season, but seven of those 10 losses came in games decided by five points or less. They lost by two versus Syracuse and losses to Notre Dame and North Carolina came by just four points. 

One game in particular stands out, and some might see their 77-75 loss to the Utes as evidence that they could struggle against an even better team from the Pac12. I think they've grown as a team since then, and it's also important to remember that Grayson Allen only scored seven points in that game while playing through flu-like symptoms. 

Allen has stepped up his game in the tournament, much like he did last year in the championship game versus Wisconsin. Duke has the highest winning percentage in NCAA Tournament history, and you have to give plenty of credit to Coach K. The Blue Devils are 7-1 ATS in their last eight tournament games, and they look good as a dog to an Oregon team that has failed to cover in four straight versus the ACC. 

Take DUKE. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Kansas #Jayhawks.

Kansas is cruising into it's Sweet 16 matchup versus Maryland, coming off 16 straight wins, 10 of those in games decided by at least 10 points. The Jayhawks aren't just winning, they are covering the spread as well, going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 overall. The Terrapins on the other hand have not played their best basketball of late, coming into the tournament as losers of five of eight. 

They didn't impress much in wins over lower seeded teams (South Dakota State and Hawaii), and those games can hardly prepare them for a game against the #1 team in the country. Kansas manhandled a very good Connecticut Huskies team, out-scoring them 44-24 in the first half, and out-rebounding them 44-24 in the game. Maryland has struggled on the board, averaging just 29.4 rebounds per game over their last five, and they are likely to have trouble with the size of this Kansas team. 

Kansas is 8-1 ATS in it's last nine neutral site game, and has won nine of 10 at neutral sites this season. The Jayhawks are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games. Maryland has gone cold from beyond the arc, shooting just 24.3 percent from three-point range in the tournament. There were a woeful 1-of-18 from beyond the arc against Hawaii, and they'll get buried if they shoot like that against the Jayhawks. 

Take KAN. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma Sooners. 

The Aggies have no business playing in the Sweet 16, after being out-played badly by Northern Iowa for all but the last 44 seconds on Sunday. While it was a miraculous comeback, I am not going to give Texas A&M much credit for pulling it off. The fact is they just didn't play well at all. They missed 11 free throws, and only connected on 7-of-31 three-point attempts. Leading scorer Danuel House was terrible all night (until the final minute). He finished the game with 22 points on 6-of-17 shooting. There's no doubt in my mind, that if the Aggies play anything like they did on Sunday, this game will be all Oklahoma. 

The Sooners will go as far as Buddy Hield can take them, and so far in the tournament he's delivered. Hield scored 36 points and made six three-point shots in the win over VCU. He leads the country with 137 made three-pointers, and when he's in the zone he's the best player in the nation. Oklahoma comes in shooting 40.9 percent from beyond the arc over it's last five games, while the Aggies have struggled from the perimeter, hitting just over 29 percent during that same span. The Sooners have also been better at the free throw line, hitting 72.5 percent over those last five games. 

Take OKLA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Villanova Wildcats.

The Miami Hurricanes looked quite impressive for 15 minutes in their win over Wichita State, but after building a big early lead, they were out-played for the rest of the game. That's not a good sign moving forward, but it's also nothing new for this Miami team. The Canes are anything but consistent, capable of competing with the top teams in the country, but also capable of going cold, and losing to the likes of Virginia Tech, Clemson and N.C. State. 

The opposite is true for Villanova, a team you could say is the epitome of consistency. The Wildcats are coming in playing their best basketball of the season, scoring an average of 79.4 points per game on an incredible 52 percent shooting over their last five games. They are also hot from beyond the arc, hitting 47.2 percent of their three-point attempts during that span. Their win over Iowa was particularly impressive, and they were 10-of-19 from three-point range in that game. 

Take Villanova. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on the Nevada Wolfpack.
Nevada was one of the surprise teams this season, finishing near the top of a competitive field in the Mountain West. There is plenty to be upbeat about for the Wolfpack, and they were particularly strong at home winning 12 of 15 games. They host a Vermont Catamounts team that finished third in the American East. The Catamounts were 9-9 on the road this season, but those wins came in a weaker conference, against teams a lot less competitive than Nevada. When they did play competitive teams from bigger conferences in their non-conference schedule, the results were not good. They lost by double-digits to the likes of Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, Yale and Northeastern. The Wolfpack have covered the spread in eight of their last nine home games, and we see a pretty short line here in this game. Vermont has not been a good bet on the road, going  2-5-1 ATS in it's last eight road games.

Take NEV. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on UTAH@HOU to go OVER the total. 

Because the Jazz are one of the top defensive teams in the NBA, we often see the bookmakers adjust with a lower number, even in games against teams like Houston that tend to play a lot of high scoring games. I don't think they have paid enough attention to Utah's home/away splits though, as clearly their road record of 12-23 would indicate that their defense isn't that strong away from Salt Lake City.

The Rockets are coming off back to back losses on the road, but they've won four of their last five home games. Houston ranks 4th in the league in scoring, but they are one of the league's worst defensive teams in the NBA, allowing opponents to average 107 points per game. Four of the last five meetings in this series have gone over the total, and the Rockets have gone over the total in 13 of their last 16 when playing on back to back nights. 

Take OVER. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on ATL@WAS to go UNDER the total. 

The Wizards are hot, coming into tonight's home game versus the Hawks as winners of four straight. They've surrendered an average of just 95 points per game during that span, and their last win came on the road at Atlanta. The Hawks are looking to avenge that loss in the second game of this home and home set tonight, and Atlanta is one of the league's best defensive teams. Atlanta ranks 6th in the NBA limiting opponents to an average of just 99.1 points per game. Prior to being upset by the Wizards, they had won five straight, and allowed less than 100 points in four of those five wins. These teams have actually gone over in seven of the last 10 meetings, but that stat is a little misleading. Seven of those 10 games saw a total below 200, and not one of those 10 games saw a number as high as tonight's total. Only twice in the last 10 meetings did they score enough points to reach this inflated total. The Hawks have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 10 when playing on one day's rest, and four straight when coming off a loss. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Ohio Bobcats. 

The Bobcats didn't get a lot of press this year, but they finished second in the MAC, just two games back of Akron. They were very strong at home, winning 16 of 18 games. They host the Morehead State Eagles who were 6-9 on the road. The Eagles won a dozen games in the Ohio Valley Conference, but they did not fare well against stiffer competition in their non-conference schedule. Ohio has played a more difficult schedule, and they've shot for a higher percentage from the free throw line, from three-point range and from the field. The Bobcats have covered the spread in six of their last eight home games, and nine of their last 11 non-conference games. The Eagles have struggled in previous games against MAC teams, failing to cover in 10 of their last 14. 

Take OHIO. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on MEM@LAL to go UNDER the total. 

The Grizzlies are coming off back to back wins over the Clippers and Suns, and they play their second game in as many nights here at the Staples Center tonight. Much like last night's game, they face a struggling team that actually benefits more with every loss, as it improves their draft position. The Lakers have lost four straight home games, scoring an average of just 96 points during that span. They've been trending toward the under, failing to reach the total in eight of their last 10 overall. Memphis is still one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and they need to be in order to compensate for their offense that ranks 24th in the league averaging just 99.2 points per game. These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games, with five of the last six meetings in LA. The is under 19-7 in Lakers last 26 home games, and 12-3-1 in the Lakers last 16 games following an ATS loss.

 Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a a Free #NBA play on the Memphis #Grizzlies.

The Memphis Grizzlies are just 3.5 games back of the Clippers who are in fourth in the Western Conference. They are coming off a 113-102 home win over the Clippers on Saturday, ending a four game losing streak. While they've been ravaged by injuries, they got a big boost with the return of Zach Randolph. The veteran made his mark in his first game back after missing the previous seven games with a knee injury. He scored 28 points, 11 boards and 10 assists, picking up his first career triple-double. 

The Grizz are in Phoenix tonight, and they have plenty to play for as they jockey for playoff position. The Suns on the other hand don't have anything to play for, in fact their draft position improves with each loss. The Suns are just 12-22 at home, and they've lost four of their last five home meetings versus Memphis. The Grizzlies have won eight of the last 10 in this series, and they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games versus teams with a losing record. 

Take MEM. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on the Nevada Wolfpack.

Nevada was one of the surprise teams this season, finishing near the top of a competitive field in the Mountain West. There is plenty to be upbeat about for the Wolfpack, and they were particularly strong at home winning 12 of 15 games. They host an Eastern Washington team that really fell apart at the end of the year, losing  four straight, including a pair of home games that it was favored to win. They were brutal on the road all year, with just 5 wins in 16 games. Those came in a weaker conference in the Big Sky, against teams a lot less competitive than Nevada. More bad news for Eastern Washington, leading scorer Venky Jois battled a knee injury in the win over Pepperdine last week, and he's question for tonight's game. The Wolfpack are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.

Take NEV.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MIL@DET to go UNDER the total. 

The Bucks lost 94-85 at home to Utah last night, and they'll be hard pressed to earn a better result on the road in the second leg of a back to back. They struggle to score at the best of times, as one of just a handful of teams that average less than 100 points per game. The total for tonight's game looks a little inflated, as the two teams haven't scored a combined 200 points in any of the last seven head to head meetings. The Pistons are on a roll, coming into tonight's game off back to back home wins. They rank among the top defensive teams in the Eastern Conference, allowing opponents to average just over 100 points per game. The Bucks have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record. The Bucks average just 5.4 made three-pointers per game, only Minnesota is worse with 5.2 per game. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers. 

The Musketeers finished just behind Villanova in the Big East, and they split the season series with the Wildcats, winning the most recent meeting at home by a score of 90-83. They are a well balanced team that can do it all, on offense, defense, on the boards and boy can they score. This should give them a massive edge against a Wisconsin team that struggles to score points. The Badgers just don't have the shooters they had last year, and often they have a tough time putting the biscuit in the basket. Xavier has averaged 84.6 points per game over it's last five, while the Badgers have scored just 63 points on 40.1 percent shooting during that span. Xavier also owns the boards, averaging just short of 40 rebounds per game in it's neutral site games, and 37.2 rebounds per game over it's last five. Superior free throw shooting, three point shooting, scoring and rebounding should prove to be far too much for a Badgers team that has scored 60 points per game on 36.2 percent shooting while going 2-2 at neutral sites this season. Xavier is 13-3 in it's last 16 versus the Big10, and the Musketeers won their last game against Wisconsin by a score of 60-49. 

Take XAV. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on UTAH@MIL to go UNDER the total.

The Jazz are back on track, coming into tonight's game versus the Bucks in Milwaukee as winners of four of their last five. They've played stellar defense, allowing an average of 87.6 points per game during that span. The Jazz own the league's 2nd ranked defense, allowing an average of 96.7 points per game. They face a Milwaukee team that averages under 100 points per game, ranking 23rd in the NBA in scoring. The Bucks are much better defensively than they are on offense, and they have failed to reach the total in four of their last five home games. Utah's leading scorer Gordon Hayward has missed two of the last three games with plantar fasciitis. He played 37 minutes against the Bulls last night, scoring just nine points on 4-of-13 shooting. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last nine head to head meetings, and the Bucks lost 84-81 at Salt Lake City in the most recent meeting.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Notre Dame #Irish.

The SFA Lumberjacks shocked the West Virginia Mountaineers in the first round of the tournament, and they are getting a ton of credit heading into a second round matchup versus Notre Dame as just a one-point dog. I'll take the Irish, who are used to playing the country's top teams in the ACC. Notre Dame has beaten the likes of Duke, North Carolina and Louisville, and when they are playing their best basketball, they can beat anybody.

The Irish started slow against Michigan, but they went on to out-score the Wolverines 41-22 in the second half. They shot a staggering 58.1 percent from the field in that game, and hit better than 50 percent from three-point range. The Lumberjacks piled up the wins against the minnows of the Southland Conference, but when they faced tougher competition in their non-conference schedule they didn't fare well. They lost 97-55 at Baylor, 70-60 at Northern Iowa, and they came up short in a 80-73 loss at Arizona State.

Take ND.

GL,

Jesse Schule

his is a 10* play on GS@SA to go UNDER the total.

The Spurs are the NBA's best defensive team, holding opponents to an average of just 92.5 points per game. They are still undefeated at home, and they host the League's top team in a marquee matchup on Saturday night. This is a revenge spot for the Spurs, who lost 120-90 at Golden State earlier this year. Note that even that high scoreline wasn't enough to reach the total for tonight's game. In fact, not one of the last 10 meetings between the two teams has seen enough points to reach this inflated number

The Warriors are gunning for a record, but this might be one game that they are willing to concede. If things get out of hand early, I think it would be wise for Steve Kerr to rest his starters here in the second game of a back-to-back. If the roles were reversed, you can bet that's would Greg Popovich would do.

The under is s 9-3 in Spurs last 12 overall, and four of the Warriors last five visits to San Antonio have failed to reach the total. The Warriors have failed to reach the total in five straight versus teams with a winning record.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Kansas #Jayhawks

The Connecticut Huskies have won five straight, but during that span they haven't really played top opponents. They beat Colorado in a close game in the first round of the tournament, but now they have to face the #1 ranked team in the country. Kansas has been crushing opponents, coming off a 105-79 first round win over Austin Peavy. They've won 15 straight, and five of their last six wins have come by at least 10 points. I think it's asking too much for this Huskies team to compete with a powerhouse like Kansas. The Jayhawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall, and they've scored an average of 82.2 points on 49.8 percent shooting while winning eight of nine neutral site games this season.

Take KAN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on Virginia (double result) 1st Half + Game.

The Cavs are one of the hottest teams in the country, coming off a blowout win over the Hampton Pirates in the first round of the tournament. They finished second in the ACC behind North Carolina with a record of 13-5, and they lost a close game by a score of 61-57 to UNC in the ACC Championship Game. They had won five in a row prior to that, and one of those was a home win over North Carolina by a score of 79-74. Butler held it's own in a pretty good Big East Conference, but when the Bulldogs played the likes of Xavier and Villanova, they failed to compete. They lost all four games against the top two teams in the Big East, and they have lost six straight versus ranked opponents. Virginia is a defensive powerhouse, and opponents have been held to 54.4 points on 39.7 percent shooting over the Cavs last five games.

Take UVA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on the Kentucky Wildcats.

Kentucky crushed minnows Stonybrook by 28 points in the first round of the tournament, and they are just a slight favorite on Saturday against Indiana. The Hoosiers also won big in their opening match, but were ousted from the BIG10 Tourney in a loss to a pretty average Michigan team.

Kentucky comes in as winners of six straight, and five of those six wins came by a double digit margin. The Wildcats have won four of the last five meetings with Indiana, and all four of those wins came by at least 10 points. Indiana's lone win came at home by a single point.

The SEC champs have scored an average of 87.8 points on 51.6 percent shooting over their last five games. Kentucky is 7-3-2 ATS in it's last 12 vs. the Big Ten. The Hoosiers have not had much success versus the SEC, failing to cover in seven of their last eight. This looks like a mismatch to me, and the favorite is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings between the two teams.

Take UK.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils.

The Yale Bulldogs played about as well as they can possibly play in their opening round win over Baylor, but I think they'll be in way over their heads against Duke on Saturday. We saw Duke handle a bit of adversity overcoming a halftime deficit to beat UNC Wilmington by eight points in their first game, and the Blue Devils are a short favorite here versus Yale.

These teams played early in the season, and Duke won that game 80-61. This Blue Devils team has the highest winning percentage in NCAA Tournament history. They have covered the spread in five straight versus the Ivy League, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tourney games.

After a slow start against the Seahawks, Marshall Plumlee opted to discard his protective mask, playing with a broken nose fully exposed. He took over down low, scoring 23 points on 9-of-10 shooting. Grayson Allen didn't have a great night shooting, but he scored the majority of his 23 points at the free throw line, going 15-of-17. In the end, Duke just had too much firepower for the Seahawks, and I expect it to be the same story here against Yale.

Take DUKE.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Notre Dame Irish.

I bet on Michigan in their win over Tulsa, and while the Wolverines prevailed in that game, I wasn't impressed with their effort. Michigan actually trailed in the final minute of the game, but Duncan Robinson hit a three-pointer to put them ahead by two with 55 seconds left on the clock. That was a rare make on the day, as they were a woeful 6-for-25 (24%) from beyond the arc.

The Irish won 12 games in the ACC, but that's far more impressive to me than Michigan's 12 wins in the BIG10. While the Irish were facing the likes of Virginia, Duke, North Carolina and Louisville, the Wolverines were piling up wins against a weak field at the bottom of the BIG10.

The Irish have had plenty of success versus the Big10, covering the spread in seven of their last nine. Michigan on the other hand has failed to cover in five of it's last seven versus the ACC.

Take ND.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the VCU Rams. 

The Oregon State Beavers somehow found their way into the NCAA Tournament, much to the dismay of St. Mary's, Valparaiso and a handful of other more deserving teams. Their tournament run is likely to come to an end pretty quickly though, facing VCU in the first round. The Beavers finished in the middle of the pack in the Pac12, with a 10-10 conference record. They were not a great team away from home, going 4-7 on the road, scoring an average of 68.7 points on 43.3 percent shooting in those games. 

VCU won seven of it's last 10 overall, and six of those seven wins came by a double digit margin. They finished tied with Dayton and St. Bonaventure at the top of the A-10 with a 14-4 record. Unlike the Beavers, the Rams had no trouble winning on the road, with a record of 7-4. The Rams should have a big edge in both free throw shooting as well as rebounding, and it's tough to beat teams that hit their free throws and win the battle on the boards. 

Oregon State will really miss forward Trey Tinkle, who is one of the team's top scorers: "He's doubtful," Wayne Tinkle said. "The timing of his injury is very unfortunate. He was having an incredible freshman season for us. We'll miss his toughness and playmaking ability for sure."

Take VCU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on PHX@UTAH to go UNDER the total.

The Jazz are back on track, coming into tonight's home game versus Phoenix off three consecutive wins. They've played stellar defense, allowing an average of 92 points per game during that span. The Jazz own the league's 2nd ranked defense, allowing an average of 97 points per game.

The Suns aren't exactly a prolific scoring team, ranking 22nd in the NBA in scoring. Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have failed to reach the total, and the under is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings. The Jazz may need to be even better defensively tonight, missing their leading scorer Gordon Hayward. The under is 27-13-1 in Jazz last 41 home games versus teams with a losing road record.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schue

This is a 10* play on the Baylor Bears.

We've seen Harvard come out of the Ivy League and shake things up when playing teams from the bigger conferences in the NCAA Tournament. I don't expect this Yale team to compete at that level though, not against a high scoring Baylor team that has been battling it out with the Big Boys of the Big12. Keep in mind that three of the nation's Top 10 teams come from this conference (#1 Kansas, #7 Oklahoma and #8 West Virginia).

The Bears last game was a 70-66 loss to #1 ranked Kansas in the Big12 tournament. They had previously beat Texas by double-digits, and I think it's not asking to much of Baylor to beat the Ivy League champs just as easily. Yale doesn't match up well against Baylor's size, with senior forward Justin Sears their tallest starter at 6"8. The Bulldogs have held their own, out-rebounding Ivy League teams by a a double digit margin. It's likely to be a different story against a Baylor team that ranks 15th nationally in rebound margin.

Baylor went out early last year, but I don't think they'll let this game get away. They should be able to dominate against an overrated Yale team that faced just one ranked team this season, losing to Duke by 19 points.

Take BAY.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Duke Blue Devils.

Duke comes into the first round of the NCAA Tournament off a loss to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament. The Blue Devils will be a double digit favorite over North Carolina Wilmington, but I think the bookmakers are not giving Duke enough credit. While the Seahawks finished first in the CAA, they piled up a lot of wins over weak teams. They didn't face a single ranked opponent, and they failed to cover in four of their last five games.

Duke is 5-2-1 ATS in it's last eight non conference games, and the Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games. We can expect Coach K to have his team ready, and we know this team handles these pressure situations well. The Seahawks on the other hand don't have much experience playing on such a big stage, and they might be a little shell shocked.

Duke should prove to have too much firepower for the Seahawks to handle. The Blue Devils averaged 81.5 points per game this season, ranking 17th nationally. That's even more impressive when you consider they play the likes of Louisville and Virginia.

Take DUKE.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on the Michigan Wolverines.

I don't think I am the only one scratching my head as to how the selection committee could have put Tulsa in a position to play in this year's NCAA Tournament. This is a team that has lost two of it's last three games by a combined 32 points. Both of those losses came against Memphis, a pretty mediocre team in a soft American Conference. In order to in the Golden Hurricane will have to first beat Michigan, who have admittedly had a disappointing season.

Still, the Wolverines finished with a winning record in a Power 5 conference, and upset #10 ranked Indiana in the first round of the Big10 Tournament. Their resume includes wins over ranked teams such as #3 Maryland, #18 Purdue, and outside the conference they beat Texas and NC State.

One thing Michigan did well all year was hit free throws, averaging 73.9 percent from the line. They were even better at neutral sites, hitting over 75 percent while winning five of seven games. Tulsa lost three of it's five neutral site games, and shot just 65 percent from the free throw line in those contests. The Golden Hurricane are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.

Take MICH.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the St. Mary's Gaels. 

St. Mary's has to be besides themselves, getting snubbed on Selection Sunday despite winning 27 games, finishing at the top of the WCC Standings and beating Gonzaga twice this season. The fact that teams like Oregon State and Fresno State made the cut above St. Mary's is nothing short of criminal. I expect this team to play with a chip on it's shoulder at home against New Mexico tonight. The Gaels crushed Pepperdine in the WCC Tournament Semis, before losing a close game to Gonzaga in the Final. The Aggies won a ton of games in the WAC this season, but for the most part, when they played teams from the bigger conferences they got blown out. Their last such game was a 71-41 loss at Wichita State. They also lost to New Mexico, Baylor and Long Beach State by double digits. The Gaels have shot 75.6 percent of their free throw attempts over their last five games, while the Aggies have shot just 66 percent at the line. St. Mary's is also one of the best in the country shooting the three-ball, hitting 41.8 percent from beyond the arc this season. I expect this to be a statement game for St. Mary's. 

Take SMC. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Indiana Pacers. 

The Pacers had won three straight before getting blown out in Atlanta on Sunday. One of those three wins was a 99-91 home win over the San Antonio Spurs. They are back home tonight hosting the Boston Celtics, and I like Indiana as a short favorite. The Pacers have won four of their last five home meetings with Boston, and they have been a good bet coming off a loss, covering the spread in seven of their last nine such situations. 

Boston has failed to cover in four of it's last five road games, and nine of 11 road games versus teams with a winning record. They will be without forward Jay Crowder for at least the next two weeks, as he is dealing with a sprained ankle. 

Paul George is coming off a brutal game in Atlanta, but he could be in for another big night with Boston's best defender out. George has averaged 25 points in three games against the Celtics this year, but I expect him to better that number here at home tonight. 

Take IND. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on CLE@UTAH to go OVER the total.

I bet on last night's Jazz game to go over in Sacramento, and here is what I had to say prior to tip off:

"Because the Jazz are one of the top defensive teams in the NBA, we often see the bookmakers adjust with a lower number, even in games against teams like Sacramento that tend to play a lot of high scoring games. I don't think they have paid enough attention to Utah's home/away splits though, as clearly their road record of 10-22 would indicate that their defense isn't that strong away from Salt Lake City."

The Jazz return home to play their second game of a back to back against the surging Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs have won six of their last seven overall, scoring an average of 114 points in those victories. They've won five of their last six versus the Jazz, and they've scored an average of 108 points in those five wins.

These two teams have gone over the total in eight of the last 10 overall meetings, and eight of the last 10 at Salt Lake City.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on UTAH@SAC to go OVER the total.

Because the Jazz are one of the top defensive teams in the NBA, we often see the bookmakers adjust with a lower number, even in games against teams like Sacramento that tend to play a lot of high scoring games. I don't think they have paid enough attention to Utah's home/away splits though, as clearly their road record of 10-22 would indicate that their defense isn't that strong away from Salt Lake City.

They catch the Kings in a slump, coming in as losers of eight of their last nine overall. During that span they played a tough schedule though, facing the Spurs twice, the Thunder, Grizzlies, Cavs, Clippers and Pelicans in New Orleans. Even in those losses they still averaged well over 100 points per game. Defense is the problem for Sacramento, ranking dead last in the NBA allowing opponents to average almost 110 points per game.

The Jazz have lost seven of their last eight road games, and they allowed opponents to average well over 100 points in those games. The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the two teams, and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Sacramento.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Kentucky Wildcats.

Texas A&M crushed LSU in the SEC Semi Final yesterday, winning by a whopping 33 points. The Tigers set a new mark for futility, as their 38 total points was the fewest scored by a Power 5 team this season. While it was an impressive performance by Texas A&M, beating up on an a vulnerable LSU team is perhaps not the best way to warmup for a clash with the Wildcats.

Kentucky started slow this season, but they come into this game playing as well as anyone. The Wildcats have won five of their last six, with those wins come by an average margin of over 17 points. They shot out the lights against Georgia yesterday, battling back after trailing 49-44 at halftime. They shot 50 percent from the field, and 26-of-30 from the free throw line in the win.

The Aggies shot just 56.3 percent from the foul line in their win over LSU. This looks like the type of game that could be decided at the free throw line, and that should favor the Wildcats.

Kentucky comes in red hot, shooting better than 50 percent from the field over it's last five games, and better than 45 percent from beyond the arc. I think the Aggies are going to struggle as they step up in class after their easy win yesterday. They've failed to cover in 10 of their last 13 coming off a win of more than 20 points.

Take UK.

GL,

Jesse Schule.

This is an 8* play on the Arkansas Little Rock Trojans. 

The Trojans had an unbelievable season, finishing first in the Sun Belt with a 17-3 record. They face Louisiana Lafayette in the Conference Final on Saturday, and this looks like quite the mismatch. The Ragin Cajuns come in as losers of five of their last eight, and Arkansas Little Rock swept the season series. The Trojans come in shooting 49.8 percent, scoring an average of 74.4 points over their last five games. They've been on fire from beyond the arc, hitting a staggering 46.5 percent from three-point range during that span. The Trojans have covered the spread in six of the last seven meetings between the two teams, and I can't see them having any trouble beating up on an inferior opponent here today. 

Take UALR. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Utah Utes. 

Two of the hottest teams in the Pac12 will meet in the conference tournament in Sin City tonight, when the 14-5 Utah Utes take on the 13-6 California Golden Bears. The Utes come in as winners of eight straight, while the Bears have won nine of their last 10 overall. I've been far more impressed with Utah though, as they manhandled a very good USC team last night. The Bears looked a little sloppy in a 76-68 win over Oregon State. Utah has been excellent at neutral sites, winning four of five. Who can forget the Utes 77-75 upset win over Duke at Madison Square Garden. They've been far better shooting free throws than Cal, hitting 71.1 percent overall this season, and 74.8 percent in five games at neutral sites. The Bears have shot a dismal 62.9 percent from the line while losing two of three at neutral sites. The Utes have won four of the last five in this series, and they look like the hotter team heading into tonight's contest. 

Take UTAH. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Virginia Cavs. 

Both Miami and Virginia finished with a 13-5 record in the ACC, but make no mistake about it, this Virginia team has stepped up to a whole new level in the second half of the season. The Cavs come in as winners of eight of their last 10, with losses at Duke and Miami by a combined four points. While the Canes were able to eke out a win at home, I don't fancy their chances of hanging with the Cavs at the Verizon Center. Virginia has allowed opponents to average just 58.6 points on 41.1 percent shooting over their last five games. They've won three of the last four meetings between the two teams, and they have won all five of their games at neutral sites this season. The Hurricanes are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. The Cavs come in hot from beyond the arc, hitting 45.9 percent from three-point range during their four game winning streak. They won those games by an average margin of 13.5 points. 

Take UVA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Kansas Jayhawks.

Kansas crushed BIG12 rivals Kansas State on Thursday, and they are the team to beat, ranked #1 in the country. They take on the inconsistent Baylor Bears tonight, and I think the price to back the Jayhawks is more than reasonable. Kansas comes in as winners of 12 straight, and they covered the spread in 10 of those 12 games. They swept the season series with Baylor, and they've won and covered in seven straight against the Bears since 2013.

The Bears finished the season as losers of three of their last four games before beating Texas yesterday. They lost 66-60 at home to Kansas during the regular season, and they shot just 36.1 percent from the field in that game. Kansas has plenty of experience playing neutral site games this season, winning five of six. They scored an average of 80.4 points on 48.6 percent shooting in those games. Opponents have averaged just 63 points on 36.7 percent shooting in the Jayhawks last five games.

Take KAN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Cincinnati #Bearcats.

It's hard not like a team like Cincinnati come tournament time. The Bearcats are tough competitors, well coached and very disciplined defensively. Their style suits playing pressure packed games on neutral courts. Cincinnati will meet Connecticut in an early tip off Friday, and the Huskies did not finish the season strong. UCONN lost four of it's final eight games, including a home loss to Houston, and a 65-60 loss at Cincinnati. The Bearcats swept the season series, covering the spread in both meetings. 

Cincy was 2-0 in neutral site games this year, holding opponents to just 58.5 points in those games. The Bearcats are coming off a 61-54 home win over SMU, and they've held their last five opponents to an average of 39.8 percent shooting. The Bearcats out-rebounded Connecticut 40-30 in the last meeting between the two teams, and Cincy is averaging almost 36 rebounds per game over their last five. Connecticut has averaged just 30.2 rebounds per game during the same span. The Huskies have failed to cover in five of their last six versus teams with a winning record, and I think Cincy will prove to be too much to handle for UCONN. 

Take CIN. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Seton Hall Pirates.

While the Villanova Wildcats and the Xavier Musketeers made all the headlines in the Big East, Seton Hall quietly finished the season with a conference record of 12-6, and a 22-8 overall record. The Pirates will face the Creighton Blue Jays in the conference tournament tonight, and Seton Hall is just a slight favorite. This looks like a complete mismatch, as the inferior Blue Jays don't play very well at all away from their home floor. The Pirates won at Creighton by a score of 75-65 in the most recent meeting between the two teams. Creighton comes in as losers of four it's last five, while Seton Hall has won five of it's last six. One of those wins came at home to Xavier, winning 90-81. Seton Hall has shot 39.6 percent from beyond the arc over it's last five games, and the Pirates should have their way with a Blue Jays team that struggles defensively.

Take HALL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on UTAH@GS to go OVER the total. 

 The Warriors are by far the highest scoring team in the NBA, averaging over 115 points per game. They've scored significantly more points at home, while remaining undefeated at 27-0. They scored 119 points in a win over Orlando in their last game, and have averaged 117.6 points in their last five at Oracle Arena. They host the Jazz tonight, and Utah has lost six of it's last seven on the road. The Jazz will be playing a quick turnaround in a back to back after a home loss to the Hawks last night, a tough spot to face Steph Curry and The Warriors. Curry dropped 41 points (seven three-pointers) in the win over Orlando. These two teams have gone over in four of the last five meetings, and the Jazz have gone over in nine of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record. The Warriors have gone over in six of their last eight when playing on one day's rest.  Take OVER.  GL,  Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Washington Huskies.

A pair of Pac12 teams will battle it out in Sin City this afternoon, when the Washington Huskies take on the Stanford Cardinal. The Cardinal really ran out of steam at the end of the season, losing seven of their last 11. One of those losses came at Washington by a score of 64-53. The Huskies have consistently put points on the board, averaging 83.3 points per game on 42.3 percent shooting this season. Stanford has really struggled to score, especially on the road. The Cardinal have averaged under 70 points per game overall, but just 57 points on 36.4 percent shooting at neutral sites. The Huskies come in at full strength, while the Cardinals lost their leading scorer half way through the season, and have suspended reserve guard Christian Sanders. Washington should have a huge edge on the glass, and they are also far better from the free throw line. The Cardinal are 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 versus the Pac12, and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams with a winning record.

Take WASH.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Utah Jazz.

The Jazz battled injuries early in the season, but after the return of Rudy Gobert they went on a seven game home winning streak. That game to an end when they lost to the Spurs a couple weeks ago. That started a tough stretch of five straight losses, but the losing skid came to an end in New Orleans on Saturday. They return home tonight to host the Hawks, and they've really played strong defense at home in Salt Lake City. Only once in their last 10 home games have they allowed an opponent to score over 100 points. The Hawks come in hot as winners of four of five, but this final game out West looks like a potential let down spot. It's going to be difficult for Atlanta to match the intensity of a gritty Jazz team in a heated battle for one of the last playoff spots in the West.

Take UTAH.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Gonzaga Bulldogs.

Gonzaga struggled early in the season with an inexperienced back court, but the Bulldogs still finished tied with the St. Mary's with a 15-3 record in the WCC, and a 24-7 overall record. Their size and skill up front is tough for opponents to deal with, and their young guards now have bit more experience under their belts. The BYU Cougars upset the Bulldogs earlier in the year, but Gonzaga got revenge with a 71-68 at Salt Lake City on Saturday. The two teams will meet in Las Vegas in the conference tourney tonight, and I expect to see a similar result to the last meeting. BYU couldn't get anything going against Gonzaga's defense, shooing just 22-of-67 (32.8 %) from he field. The Bulldogs come in as the hotter team, covering the spread in four of their last five. They have been very good at the free throw line during that span, hitting 78 percent. The Cougars have failed to cover in three of their last five, and are shooting just 67.5 percent from the charity stripe. Free throw shooting could be a big factor in tonight's game, and that may not bode well for BYU.

Take GONZ.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies.

The Huskies have quietly been making bettors a fortune at home, going 21-7-3 ATS in their last 31 home games. They host the Western Michigan Broncos in a MAC Tournament game tonight, and they already beat the Broncos 76-67 just over a week ago. The Broncos have only won two road games all year long, with a dismal 2-11 road record. While there's nothing easy about handicapping college hoops, I think this is a case of the obvious choice being the best choice. 

Take NIU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the Northwestern Wildcats. 

The Wildcats got off to a hot start this season, but cooled off slightly when they had to face the top teams in the BIG10. They will finish the season at home against Nebraska, with a chance to reach 20 wins. The Cornhuskers don't have much to prove here, and they've struggled on the road all year winning just three of 10 overall. Their last road game was a loss to Penn State, a team that Northwestern beat by double digits on the road. The Wildcats have a home record of 13-4, and they have covered the spread in six of their last eight versus teams with a losing record. The Cornhuskers are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 road games versus teams with a winning home record. This looks like a great spot to back the home team on senior's night. 

Take NW. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule 

This is a 5* play on the Cincinnati Bearcats. 

Cincinnati lost at SMU earlier this season, but that game was close with a final score of 59-57. They will look to avenge that loss here in their final home game, and I think the Bearcats at almost a pickem looks like great value. Larry Brown is growing increasingly frustrated about his team's post season ban, which is likely to be more of a distraction that a source of motivation. This is a still a must win game for the Mustangs who sit tied on points with Temple, but beating the Bearcats in Cincinnati is a tough ask. Cincy is 13-3 at home this season, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. They've also covered the spread in four of the last five meetings in this series. They've held opponents to just 63.5 points per game on 38.8 percent shooting on their home floor, while averaging 81.2 points on 47.6 percent shooting themselves. The Mustangs have a solid road record of 7-3, but they've lost when playing the top teams in the AAC, losing at Tulsa, Houston and Temple. 

Take CIN. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Virginia Cavs.

The situational handicappers will be licking their chops tonight, lining up to bet on the Cardinals in this revenge game against Virginia. The Cavs trounced the Cardinals in Louisville back in January, handing them their worst loss of the season.

I've written extensively about "situational handicapping" throughout my career, and I consider it to be one of the most overrated strategies that a sports handicapper can focus on. I do take note of "revenge spots" such as we see in tonight's game, but unless there are several other key factors that line up in favor of the team seeking revenge, I wouldn't want to bet on that team to do what it failed to do in the previous meeting.

There's no reason to think that "revenge" will trump the effort of a Virginia team playing it's final home game before gearing up for the playoffs. Louisville on the other hand is serving a self imposed ban this post-season, so doesn't have anything left to play for. The Cardinals are just 4-6 on the road while Virginia is 14-0 at home.

Louisville has failed to cover in eight of it's last nine road games, and they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams with a winning record. The Cavs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus teams with a winning straight up record.

Take UVA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the New Orleans Pelicans.

The Jazz suffered another loss on the road at Memphis last night, making it six in a row away from Salt Lake City. I bet on the Grizzlies in that game, and here is what I had to say prior to tipoff: "The Jazz have lost four straight overall, and five straight on the road. They may be one of the best defensive teams in the league, but the bulk of their success has come in Salt Lake City. Utah's road record of 9-20 inspires little confidence that they can upend the Grizzlies here in Memphis. Bettors have been getting buried backing the Jazz, who have failed to cover in six straight, and eight in a row when playing on one day's rest." The Pelicans have won three of their last four home games, and one of those wins came by a score of 100-96 versus Utah. They've won four of their last five home meetings with the Jazz.

Take N.O.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Duke Blue Devils.

The situational handicappers will be licking their chops tonight, lining up to bet on the Tar Heels in this revenge game against Duke. The Blue Devils upset North Carolina at Chapel Hill a couple weeks back, in a game that they really should have won.

I've written extensively about "situational handicapping" throughout my career, and I consider it to be one of the most overrated strategies that a sports handicapper can focus on. I do take note of "revenge spots" such as we see in tonight's game, but unless there are several other key factors that line up in favor of the team seeking revenge, I wouldn't want to bet on that team to do what it failed to do in the previous meeting.

I find it a little mind boggling that after watching the Tar Heels fail to beat Duke at home, people are willing to bet on North Carolina as a favorite at Duke on senior night. Actually laying points with a team that is just 5-5 on the road this season to beat Coach K at Cameron Indoor where Duke is 181-12 (.937) at home since the 2004-2005 season, second only to Kansas in home winning percentage. 

Take Duke.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.

The Yellow Jackets are coming off a 56-53 loss at Louisville, which was an impressive showing despite the disappointing result. They've had better luck at home of late, winning three straight, including a 63-62 win over #18 ranked Notre Dame. They had won four straight prior to the setback against Louisville, and I like their chances of knocking off Pittsburgh here on senior's night. The Panthers have been brutal on the road this season, losing five of eight overall. Most recently they lost 65-61 at Virginia Tech. They are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 road games. It's going to be a struggle for Pittsburgh to contend with the size of the Yellow Jackets, who are among the conference leaders averaging almost 37 rebounds per game. Georgia Tech is 12-5 at home. 

Take GT. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule 

This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Illinois State #Redbirds.

The Indiana State Sycamores are coming off a home win over cellar dwellers Bradley, which snapped a six game losing skid. They had lost their previous three games all by a 20+ point margin. One of those losses came at Illinois State by a score of 78-50. The two teams meet in the conference tournament in St. Louis Friday, and I don't see any reason we won't see another comfortable win for the Red Birds.

Illinois State finished in a second place tie with Evansville with a 12-6 record in the Missouri Valley Conference. They won six of their last eight games, losing only to conference powerhouses Wichita State and Northern Iowa. One of their wins during that span came at home against the conference leading Shockers.

The Sycamores come into this game in a terrible offensive slump, averaging just 61.4 points on 34.5 percent shooting over their last five games. They are 1-8-1 in their last 10 games overall, and they are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games. The Redbirds are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams with a losing record.

Take ILST.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Memphis Grizzlies.

The bookmakers have reacted to the fact that Memphis has lost Marc Gasol for the remainder of the season, but the Grizzlies have won six of eight since he went down. Both losses during that span came on the road, and they boast a stellar home record of 22-9. The Grizzlies will host the struggling Utah Jazz tonight, and they are just a slight favorite.

The Jazz have lost four straight overall, and five straight on the road. They may be one of the best defensive teams in the league, but the bulk of their success has come in Salt Lake City. Utah's road record of 9-20 inspires little confidence that they can upend the Grizzlies here in Memphis.

Bettors have been getting buried backing the Jazz, who have failed to cover in six straight, and eight in a row when playing on one day's rest. I still find it a little mind boggling that I can take the Grizzlies as the short favorite here even though they are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games.

Take MEM.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies.

The Huskies are hosting Ball State in their final home game of the season, and despite a 16-1 record in Dekalb, they are only asked to cover a few points on senior's night. Ball State is coming off an ugly home loss to Central Michigan, and the Cardinals lost their last road game by double digits at Toledo. They are just 5-6 overall on the road, and they've lost by double digits in each of their last two visits to Dekalb. The Huskies on the other hand have quietly been making bettors a fortune at home, going 20-7-3 ATS in their last 30 home games. The Huskies have also covered the spread in five of their last six versus Ball State. 

Take NIU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Princeton Tigers.

The Harvard Crimson have dominated the Ivy League in recent seasons, but they have been brutal in 2016. Harvard has lost eight of 12 games in conference play, and they have failed to cover in 10 of their last 12 overall. Harvard has been burying bettors, going 7-21 ATS in their last 28 versus the Ivy League.

They've lost three of their last four home games, including a double digit loss to Yale. Princeton trails Yale by just a half a game in the Ivy League standings, with a 10-1 conference record. The Tigers beat Harvard at home by a whopping 21 points earlier this season, and they should win tonight's game by a wide margin. Princeton has covered the spread in five of it's last seven at Harvard, and four straight on the road.

Take PRIN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Arizona State Sun Devils.

The Sun Devils come into senior's night with a conference record of 4-12, and they host the 8-8 Stanford Cardinal. Don't be fooled by Arizona State's poor record, this has been a tough team on it's home floor. The Sun Devils are 10-5 at home, and their most recent home win came against the USC Trojans.

The Cardinal have really struggled on the road, going 2-6 away from Palo Alto. The home team has won six of the last seven meetings between these two teams, and that's a trend I expect to continue tonight. The Cardinal are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games, and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games versus teams with a winning home record. Arizona State is 4-1 ATS in it's last five home games against teams with a losing road record.

Take ASU.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on the Temple Owls.

It's senior's night in Philly, and the Owls are hosting the Memphis Tigers who are just 1-7 on the road this season. Temple is tied at the top of the American Conference with a 12-4 record. This is also a revenge game for the Owls, who lost 67-65 at Memphis earlier this season. The Owls don't lose many games at home, with a 10-3 record in Philly.

Memphis is likely over-matched here, coming in as losers of four straight road games. They are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and they have failed to cover in four straight versus Temple. This looks like a tough spot for a Memphis team that is just 7-9 versus the American Conference.

Take TEMPLE.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on the Fresno State Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs have won four straight, and they will play their final home game against a struggling Colorado State Rams team on senior's night. The Rams have lost five straight on the road, and seven of 10 away from home this season. Colorado State has lost four of it's last five overall, and they've shot just 38.6 percent from the field during that span.

The Bulldogs are 15-2 at home, and 11-5 in the Mountain West. They have covered the spread in four of their last five home games, and four of their last five against teams with a winning record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series, and the favorite covered the spread in all five of those games.

Take FRES.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on the Providence Friars.

Providence got back on track with a blowout win over DePaul over the weekend, and they look good to win at home on senior's night against the visiting Creighton Blue Jays. Providence has won and covered four straight in this series, and the Friars are a solid 12-4 at home. The Blue Jays have a 4-6 road record, and the Friars are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

This game has the potential to be decided at the free throw line, and that would certainly favor the home team. The Blue Jays are shooting below 70 percent from the charity stripe, and just 68.6 percent on the road. The Friars shoot 73.5 percent from the line at home, and have hit 75.5 percent of their free throws over their last five games.

Take PROV.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on the Alabama Crimson Tide.

The Arkansas Razorbacks are coming into Alabama as winners of three straight, but they have their work cut out for them against the Crimson Tide on senior's night. Arkansas's winning streak includes a couple of home wins over Missouri and LSU, and road win at Tennessee. The Vols were without leading scorer as well as another starter who averages double digits in points.

Road wins have been few and far between for the Razorbacks, who are just 2-8 on the road this year. Aside from beating up a shorthanded Tennessee team, their other road win came against cellar dwellers Missouri. Alabama is 10-3 at home, and has won five straight home meetings in this series since 2010. The Tide failed to cover in a win over Auburn on Saturday, but they are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss.

Take BAMA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Wisconsin Badgers.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are one of the BIG10's bottom feeders, with a conference record of 2-14. They have a losing home record, and they have suffered double digit home losses at the hands of Michigan and Northwestern, and they are coming off a 13 point loss on the road at Illinois.

Normally you would expect a pretty strong effort from an underdog like Minnesota in it's final home game, but with three of it's top players suspended for the remainder of the season, maybe not. The Gophers might just fold like a cheap suite here without leading scorer Nate Mason, who had 31 points in the team's only two wins in conference play. Wisconsin has won four straight in this series, and three of those wins came by double digits. They won in Minnesota last year by a score of 76-63.

Take WISC.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Seton Hall Pirates.

The Pirates are heading into March on a roll, coming off a big home win over Xavier. They've won eight of their last nine overall, and three of those wins have come on the road. In fact Seton Hall has a 6-3 record on the road this season, which is pretty impressive for an unranked team. Butler is just 2-2 over a four game stretch, which includes a home loss to Xavier. They've failed to cover the spread in six straight home games against teams with a winning road record.

The Pirates have been a moneymaker as a road underdog, covering in seven of their last eight on the road. They are also 10-2 in their last 12 games against teams from the Big East. They did suffer a home loss at the hands of Butler just a few weeks back, setting up a revenge spot tonight. Butler shot 55.8 percent from the field, and 50% from beyond the arc in the previous meeting. They will have a tough time repeating that here tonight, as they've shot just 42.2 percent over their last five games.

Take HALL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on DET@SA to go UNDER the total.

The Spurs are by far the best defensive team in the NBA, and they host a Detroit Pistons team tonight that is quite content to play a defensive style. The Pistons have held their last five opponents to an average of just 95 points. They've failed to reach the total in six of their last eight overall, and four of their last five road games.

The Spurs are 28-0 at home, and they've been dominant defensively in the majority of those games. They tend to step up the defensive intensity against better teams, failing to reach the total in eight of their last 10 against teams with a winning record. They have just come back from a long road trip, and the under is 16-7-1 in their last 24 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Toronto Raptors.

The Utah Jazz are a prime example of a Jekyll and Hyde team, playing great defense at home, but really struggling on the road. They've lost six of their last eight overall, and four straight on the road. They have not been a good bet in previous meetings with the Raptors, failing to cover in five straight versus Toronto.

The Raptors scored an average of 106.4 points in those games, and they averaged 113 points in their home games during that span. The Jazz have surrendered 100 points or more in each of their last five road games. The Raptors have won 11 straight at home, covering the spread in eight of those games.

Take TOR.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on UTAH@JAZZ to go OVER the total.

The Utah Jazz are a prime example of a Jekyll and Hyde team, playing great defense at home, but really struggling on the road. They've lost six of their last eight overall, and four straight on the road. They have not been a good bet in previous meetings with the Raptors, failing to cover in five straight versus Toronto.

The Raptors scored an average of 106.4 points in those games, and they averaged 113 points in their home games during that span. The Jazz have surrendered 100 points or more in each of their last five road games. The Raptors have won 11 straight at home, covering the spread in eight of those games. Six of the last eight in this series have gone over the number.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Notre Dame Irish.

The Irish will host ACC rivals Miami on Wednesday, and strangely Notre Dame is just a short favorite. With a home record of 13-1, and signature wins over North Carolina and Louisville, I think the Irish should be a much bigger favorite in this spot. Miami is 5-4 on the road, but this looks like a tough spot for the Canes, who haven't won at South Bend in 16 years.

The Canes will be shorthanded tonight, without key reserve player Ja'Quan Newton: "We don't replace him. We just tell Angel to play a lot more minutes," Larranaga said. "Ja'Quan just had a fantastic regular season. I believe he should win the ACC sixth man of the year award." Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS in it's last four home games, while Miami is 2-5 ATS in it's last 7 road games.

Take ND.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies.

The Bonnies will host St. Joes on Wednesday, and it's senior night at St. Bonaventure. History certainly favors the Bonnies, who have won four straight meetings, including a double digit win at St. Joe's earlier this year. The Red Hawks are currently in first place in the A-10, but a home win for the Bonnies would move them into a tie with St. Joe's.

St. Bonaventure has won eight of it's last nine overall, and the one loss came on the road at La Salle. They have scored an average of 82.2 points on 49.3 percent shooting over their last five games, and they are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Take SBON.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Hawks.

The Warriors are inching closer to their goal of breaking the all time regular season win record currently held by Jordan's Bulls. They have won five straight, but four of those games were close, decided by just a few points. They could be pushed to the brink at home tonight, hosting the Atlanta Hawks, who have given them good games in the past. Steph Curry is battling an ankle injury, and his status for tonight's game is still in question. "We'll err on the side of caution. But if he's healthy enough to go, we'll play him." said Steve Kerr. The Warriors are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and I think they are asked to cover an inflated number tonight

Take ATL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Clemson Tigers.

It's Senior's Night at Clemson, and the Tigers will be all fired up as they get set to host the Virginia Cavs. As well as Virginia has played of late, the fact is that they are just 4-6 on the road. I don't think the Cavs have any business being a sizable favorite on the road tonight, where Clemson has won seven of it's last eight. The Tigers covered the spread in six of those games, and even when they lose they don't lose by much. Three of their last four losses came in games decided by three points or less. This game appears to be destined to be a close, low scoring affair, and the home dog looks like a bargain

Take CLEM.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on PHI@WAS to go UNDER the total. 

The Washington Wizards have won five of seven since the All Star break, much because of an improved defense. They've held their opponents to fewer than 100 points in each of the wins in that span, and odds are we'll see a low-scoring contest when they host the woeful Philadelphia 76ers Monday night. 

Philly has lost eight straight since a 103-98 win against the Nets on Feb. 6. It lost 130-116 at Orlando yesterday when it scored a season high while shooting 53.2% from the field. We're unlikely to see as many points tonight though as the the under is 4-1 in its last five games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points and meetings with the Wizards generally have been low-scoring affairs.

The Wizards defeated the 76ers 106-94 on Feb. 5 and 103-94 last Friday. Six of the last eight meetings in this series have stayed under the total with both teams playing on a back-to-back we're unlikely to see either team looking to drive up the tempo.

The Wizards defeated a Cleveland team without the rested Lebron James 113-99 last night, allowing the talented Cavaliers to shoot just 40.0% from the field. The 76ers are the league's lowest-scoring team at 96.2 points per game and should pose little offensive threat. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on MIA@NYK to go UNDER the total. 

Only the San Antonio Spurs have allowed fewer points than Miami. The Heat's 2nd ranked defense has allowed just 96.9 points per game, and they come into New York without their leading scorer. These two teams have failed to reach the total in seven of the last 10 meetings, and tonight's total is far higher than it was in any of those contests. The Knicks are hardly an offensive powerhouse, ranking 23rd in the NBA in scoring averaging just 99.4 points per game. The Knicks have gone under in 11 of their last 12 home meetings with Miami, and six of their last eight home games overall. The Heat have gone under in eight of their last 11 against teams with a losing record, and nine of their last 13 versus Eastern Conference teams. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. 

It's been a disastrous season for Wake Forest, with just two wins in 16 games in conference play. This team isn't nearly as bad as it's win/loss record indicates though, and their final home game comes against one of a few teams in the ACC that they should be able to beat. The Virginia Tech Hokies have overachieved, winning seven games in conference play. Still the Deacons six home wins are three more than the Hokies have on the road. Virginia Tech is coming off a road win at Boston College Tuesday, but had lost five straight away from home previously. 

Wake lost at Virginia Tech by a score of 93-91 earlier this year, and will have a chance to avenge that loss here on senior's night. The Hokies don't have a lot to play for, as they won't be competing in the NCAA tournament. The Deacons are coming off a double digit home loss to Notre Dame, playing without leading scorer Devin Thomas. Their senior forward is back for tonight's game, and Wake is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Take WAKE. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on the Nevada Wolfpack. 

Nevada has quietly been one of the top teams in the Mountain West, with a 9-6 record in conference play. They've been really strong at home, going 10-2 in Reno. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. They host a struggling Colorado State team Sunday that has lost three of it's last four overall, and four straight road games. 

The Rams are one of the weakest defensive teams in the country, ranking 301st nationally allowing 77.6 points per game. They have been even worse on the road, giving up 81 points per game. They lost their last road game at Wyoming by a score of 84-66, and the Cowboys are one of the bottom feeders of the Mountain West Conference. 

Take NEV. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule.

This is a 7* play on the Atlanta Hawks. 

The Charlotte Hornets have been rolling, winning eight of their last 10 overall. They already beat the Hawks in Charlotte earlier this season in a rout, but I think the Hornets are going to have a tough time here in Atlanta. The Hawks are coming off a big home win over Chicago, and they are 18-12 overall at home. This will be Charlotte's sixth consecutive road game, and even after winning four of their last five, they are just 11-18 on the road this season. 

Jeff Teague scored 19 points with nine assists in the win over Chicago on Friday, and the Hawks looked healthier than they have in a while in that game. Paul Millsap pulled in 13 rebounds, and Al Horford scored 18 points on 8-of-11 shooting. The Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games versus teams with a losing road record. The home team is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in this series. 

Take ATL. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. 

Duke has won six of it's last seven overall, and two of those wins came on the road. Most recently they upset the North Carolina Tar Heels at Chapel Hill by a score of 74-73. They are on the road Sunday, facing a Pittsburgh team that has lost four of it's last six. Two of those losses came at home, most recently a 67-60 loss to Louisville on Wednesday. Pittsburgh has yet to beat a Top 25 team, and leading scorer Michael Young has struggled averaging just 12.7 points over his last six games. Duke appears to be playing it's best basketball heading into the tournament, and the same can not be said for Pitt. The Panthers are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 home games.

Take DUKE. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule 

This is a 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers. 

The #5 ranked Musketeers have won four straight, and nine of their last 10. They are 25-3 overall, and they are coming off a massive win over the Big East leaders Villanova. They face a Seton Hall team that also has an impressive resume, with a 12-3 home record, and a 10-5 record in the Big East. Not a single one of those victories came against an opponent like Xavier though, and the Pirates three losses at home are more than Xavier's two on the road. The Musketeers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, and they are more points and shooting for a higher percentage on the road than Seton Hall is at home. Xavier is hitting 76.3 percent from the free throw line on the road, while the Pirates have hit just 64 percent at home. This is the kind of game that could easily be decided at the free throw line, and if that's the case the edge goes to the visitors. 

Take XAV. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on BKN@UTAH to go UNDER the total. 

After averaging 113 points while winning two of three games, the Jazz managed just 78 points in a home loss to the Spurs Thursday. They host the lowly Brooklyn Nets tonight, and I expect a low scoring affair against a Nets team that averages just 97 points per game. Brooklyn has lost three straight versus the Jazz, scoring an average of just 82 points in those games. Two of those games went under the total, and the other was a 108-86 Utah win, which still didn't see enough points to reach tonight's total. 

Utah is far better defensively at home, and they are particularly tough when coming off a double digit home loss. They've gone under in eight straight when coming off such a one-sided defeat. The Jazz have gone under the total in 22 of their last 32 versus the Eastern Conference, and nine of their last 12 versus teams with a winning percentage less than .400. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on BYU. 

My Game of the Month was on the St. Mary's Gaels +6.5 at Gonzaga last week, and the Gaels won outright, sweeping the season series. Here is what I had said about Gonzaga prior to the game: "Gonzaga sits in first place in the West Coast Conference, one game ahead of St. Mary's with a 13-2 conference record. Both teams have 21 wins overall, but the Gaels have two fewer losses. This Gonzaga team has continued to beat up on weak opposition in the conference, but when they've faced tougher opponents they've failed miserably. That was on full display last Saturday when they lost 69-60 at SMU. They've lost to BYU, UCLA, Arizona, Texas A&M and at St. Mary's earlier this year."

The Bulldogs have failed to get the job done against top tier teams all year long, and I don't expect that to change tonight in Provo. The Cougars have been dominant at home, averaging 86.6 points per game in Provo. They are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. The Bulldogs are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games versus teams with a winning  record.

Take BYU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule