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Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-18-17	Pelicans v. Grizzlies -135		91-103	Win	100	18 h 12 m	Show
8*
10-18-17	Bucks v. Celtics -147		108-100	Loss	-147	7 h 14 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics. The Celtics showed plenty of character coming back from a 16-point deficit at halftime to out-score the Cavs 33-18 in the third quarter. The loss of Gordon Hayward will be tough, but I think they can overcome it. They face a tough test here tonight, playing the second game of a back to back at home versus Milwaukee. The Bucks were one of the best defensive teams in the East last year, and that's a big reason why the under is 8-2-1 in Milwaukee's last 11 overall. While the Celtics are without Hayward, Milwaukee is going to miss PF Jabari Parker, who averaged over 20 points per game last year. The Bucks lost three of four pre-season games, averaging less than 100 points per game. I expect a tight defensive battle here in Boston. Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule
10-17-17	Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 232		122-121	Loss	-110	35 h 45 m	Show
This is an 8* play on HOU@GS to go UNDER the total. The Warriors will host Houston in their season opener, and the total for this game is sky high. These teams have gone under in six of the last seven meetings, and I don't expect that the offense will be firing on all cylinders this early in the year. That is especially true for James Harden, who finished the pre-season going 1-for-18 from beyond the arc in his last two games. He failed to score 20 points in four of the Rockets last five pre-season games, despite playing starters minutes. Keep in mind the last meaningful game he played was a 114-75 home loss to the Spurs in the Western Conference Semi Finals. He scored 10 points on 2-of-11 shooting, leading many to speculate that he threw the game. Then there is the NBA's change to the "James Harden Rule", which will prevent him from getting as many unearned points as he has in past seasons. The Rockets have lost five of their last six visits to Oracle Arena, and they have averaged under 95 points per game in those losses. While the over is 5-1 in the Warriors last six home games, the number here is higher than it was for any of those six contests. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
10-17-17	Celtics +3.5 v. Cavs		99-102	Win	100	17 h 17 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics. Kyrie Irving and his Celtics would appear to have a lot more to prove than Cleveland here on Opening Night. The Celtics are the defending Eastern Conference champs, and Cleveland has already proven that regular season success is not a high priority. It was Kyrie Irving that was the better player in the NBA Finals when Cleveland won the title, and he was better in last year's Finals as well. Isaiah Thomas finished 5th in MVP voting with the Celtics last year, and now Irving steps in to fill his role as "The Man" in Boston. It's worth noting that in Boston's loss to Cleveland in the NBA Finals, they were far more competitive without Thomas in the lineup. They covered the spread in both Games 3 & 4 in Cleveland, and they led by double-digits at halftime in Game 4. The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four at Cleveland. I'll take the points. Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule
06-09-17	Warriors -5.5 v. Cavs		116-137	Loss	-110	9 h 33 m	Show
This is a 5* play on the Warriors. The Cavs played about as well as they possibly can in Game 3, but in the end the Warriors won and covered, taking a commanding 3-0 lead. This sets up Cleveland for a let down (maybe even a lay down) spot at home in Game 4. It's hard to imagine that the Cavs are too motivated to force a 5th game, which would have them travel to Oakland, where they could watch the Warriors celebrate in front of a home crowd. LeBron James scored 39 points and came one assist away from a triple-double in Game 3, but he's traditionally struggled when facing elimination in the Finals. When the Warriors won in Cleveland in 2015, he scored 32 points, but shot just 13-of-33 from the field in the final game of the series. The Previous season, LeBron's Miami Heat lost to the Spurs in five games. LeBron scored 31 points in Game 5, shooting for a lower percentage than any of the previous four games in the series. The Cavs have no answer for Kevin Durant, who leads all scorers averaging 34 points per game in the Finals. I expect Durant to have a big night, helping the Warriors close out a 16-0 post-season with a win tonight. I also like the following props: 4TH quarter total UNDER 55.5 -110 @ Bet365 LeBron James no triple double -215 @ 5Dimes Warriors first to score 30 points -150 @ 5Dimes Kevin Durant to score more points than Curry, James, Irving +220 @ Bet365 LeBron James under 55.5 points + rebounds + assists -135 @ 5Dimes GL, Jesse Schule
06-09-17	Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 229		116-137	Loss	-110	9 h 33 m	Show
This is a 5* play on GS@CLE to go UNDER. The Cavs played about as well as they possibly can in Game 3, but in the end the Warriors won and covered, taking a commanding 3-0 lead. This sets up Cleveland for a let down (maybe even a lay down) spot at home in Game 4. It's hard to imagine that the Cavs are too motivated to force a 5th game, which would have them travel to Oakland, where they could watch the Warriors celebrate in front of a home crowd. LeBron James scored 39 points and came one assist away from a triple-double in Game 3, but he's traditionally struggled when facing elimination in the Finals. When the Warriors won in Cleveland in 2015, he scored 32 points, but shot just 13-of-33 from the field in the final game of the series. The Previous season, LeBron's Miami Heat lost to the Spurs in five games. LeBron scored 31 points in Game 5, shooting for a lower percentage than any of the previous four games in the series. The Cavs have no answer for Kevin Durant, who leads all scorers averaging 34 points per game in the Finals. I expect Durant to have a big night, helping the Warriors close out a 16-0 post-season with a win tonight. I also like the following props: 4TH quarter total UNDER 55.5 -110 @ Bet365 LeBron James no triple double -215 @ 5Dimes Warriors first to score 30 points -150 @ 5Dimes Kevin Durant to score more points than Curry, James, Irving +220 @ Bet365 LeBron James under 55.5 points + rebounds + assists -135 @ 5Dimes GL, Jesse Schule
06-07-17	Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 221	Top	118-113	Loss	-110	77 h 43 m	Show
This is a 10* play on GS@CLE to go Under the total. Game 1 of the NBA Finals fell well short of an inflated total, and the bookmakers adjusted with a much lower number for Game 2. We saw an offensive outburst in the second game of the series, but the end result was the same (a blowout win for the Warriors). Here is what I said prior to Game 1: "The Cavs will play the Warriors in a rematch of last year's NBA Finals. In fact this is the third straight season that Cleveland will face the Warriors in the Finals, and over the past two seasons they have played 13 NBA Finals matches. Not one of those games saw more than 216 combined points. During the regular season these teams played three times, and went under in all three games. Despite these trends, a matchup between two teams that each ranked in the top five in scoring has the bookmakers opening with another enormous total for Game 1. Both these teams have put up impressive points totals in these playoffs, but they've also been dominant on defense. The Warriors have gone over in six straight, but the total for this game in far higher than it was in any of those previous contests. So far in these playoffs neither the Warriors or the Cavs have truly been in a position where they need to battle for a full 48 minutes. This is the Finals, and the stakes are high. Don't expect to see easy buckets and mental lapses on the defensive side of the ball. LeBron's legacy is at stake here, and while he just passed MJ to become the all time playoff scoring leader, I've been more impressed with his defense so far in this post-season." After a combined 245 points were scored in Game 2, the total for tonight's game is significantly higher than it was on Sunday. I think this is another over-correction by the bookmakers. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
06-01-17	Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 226.5	Top	91-113	Win	100	149 h 50 m	Show
This is a 10* play on CLE@GS to go UNDER the total. The Cavs will play the Warriors in a rematch of last year's NBA Finals. In fact this is the third straight season that Cleveland will face the Warriors in the Finals, and over the past two seasons they have played 13 NBA Finals matches. Not one of those games saw more than 216 combined points. During the regular season these teams played three times, and went under in all three games. Despite these trends, a matchup between two teams that each ranked in the top five in scoring has the bookmakers opening with another enormous total for Game 1. Both these teams have put up impressive points totals in these playoffs, but they've also been dominant on defense. The Warriors have gone over in six straight, but the total for this game in far higher than it was in any of those previous contests. So far in these playoffs neither the Warriors or the Cavs have truly been in a position where they need to battle for a full 48 minutes. This is the Finals, and the stakes are high. Don't expect to see easy buckets and mental lapses on the defensive side of the ball. LeBron's legacy is at stake here, and while he just passed MJ to become the all time playoff scoring leader, I've been more impressed with his defense so far in this post-season. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
05-25-17	Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 216	Top	135-102	Loss	-110	19 h 54 m	Show
This is a 10* play on CLE@BOS to go UNDER the total . The last time these two teams played in Boston, the total fell short of an inflated number. I cashed in on that game, and here is what I said before tip off: "The Celtics only scored 39 points in the first half of Game 1, and the game ended up going over the total by just one bucket. The bookmakers have set a higher total for Game 2, and I am expecting a more competitive game from Boston. These two teams had gone under in six straight meetings in Boston prior to Game 1. The Cavs aren't expecting much of a challenge here from the Celtics, but their performance in the series opener appeared to be a statement directed toward the Warriors. We could see them take their foot off the gas here in Game 2. Cleveland won Game 1 by a 13 point margin, and the difference was made up at the free throw line. The Cavs attempted a whopping 35 free throws, scoring 28 points. The Celtics attempted just 18 free throws, scoring just 10 points. I would think those numbers would even out a little here in Game 2. There were plenty of "easy buckets" in the last game, and I expect to see Boston play a little harder on defense down the stretch in this game." The situation is a little different here in Game 5, as the Celtics are now facing elimination. The Cavs previously closed out Toronto and Indiana, and both of those elimination games saw fewer than 212 points. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
05-23-17	Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 216	Top	99-112	Win	100	26 h 18 m	Show
This is a 10* play on BOS@CLE to go UNDER the total. After suffering the worst loss in NBA Playoff History in Game 2 at home, the Celtics stunned the Cavs in Cleveland winning Game 3 by a score of 111-108. The Cavs led by 21 points in the third quarter of that game, and it looked like it was going to be another blowout. The Cavs obviously took their foot off the gas, allowing Boston to get back in the game. I seriously doubt we'll see that happen here in Game 4 tonight. We saw how dominant the Cavs can be when they held the Celtics to just 31 points in the first half of Game 2. I expect to see that same defensive intensity here in tonight's game. The Celtics upset victory in Game 3 was a feel good story, and they deserve full credit for showing up to play under tough circumstances. Don't be surprised if they suffer a let down here in tonight's game, as it's doubtful that they continue to shoot the ball so well from beyond the arc. Scoring has been up in these playoffs, and that has bookmakers setting the totals higher and higher. I think the value here in Cleveland tonight is a play on the under. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
05-22-17	Warriors v. Spurs OVER 216		129-115	Win	100	19 h 5 m	Show
This is an 8* play on GS@SA to go OVER the total. Last night we saw the Celtics pull off a stunning upset for the ages in Cleveland. They pushed the tempo, playing fast and making a whopping 18 three-pointers. The pressure is off for both the Spurs and the Warriors now, and I expect to see both teams come out pretty loose in Game 4. The Spurs scored 108 points in Game 3, despite going just 5-of-21 from beyond the arc. They also shot just 60 percent from the free-throw line. I expect improvements in both those categories tonight, and that will help push the total higher. These teams have played a total of six games this season (regular season and playoffs), and five of those went over the total. The Warriors have gone over in six of their last seven road games, while the Spurs have gone over in five straight home games. The Warriors scored 128 points in their series clinching win at Portland, and 121 points in their series clinching win against the Jazz. I expect to see them score 120+ again, closing out the Spurs tonight. Take GS. GL, Jesse Schule
05-21-17	Celtics v. Cavs OVER 213	Top	111-108	Win	100	24 h 60 m	Show
This is an 8* play on BOS@CLE to go OVER the total. The Cavs scored 130 points in Game 2 of this series, and with Isaiah Thomas out for the rest of the playoffs, Boston isn't likely to play any better defensively in Cleveland. The Cavs might suffer a bit of a let down, but if the do it's likely going to be on defense. They held the Celtics to just 31 points in the first half of Game 2, and it might be a tough ask to bring that kind of defensive intensity again here in Game 3. Boston scored 55 points in the second half of Game 2, and that was with Isaiah Thomas in the locker room. The Cavs have gone over in all four home games in these playoffs, and the over is 7-3 in Cavaliers last 10 games playing on 1 days rest. The total for the last game was roughly seven points higher, but with Boston's leading scorer out, the bookmakers have adjusted with a much lower number here. I think it looks like an over-correction. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
05-20-17	Warriors -6.5 v. Spurs		120-108	Win	100	9 h 22 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Golden State Warriors. The Cleveland Cavaliers have put the Warriors on notice, and now the ball is in Golden State's court. Sure the Cavs are playing the Celtics, and the Warriors are playing the Spurs, but he reality is that these two teams are focused on a rematch of last year's Finals. Lebron James said that his team could play better after winning Game 1 in Boston by double-digits, and he wasn't kidding. Cleveland won Game 2 by a 44-point margin. With the Cavs well on their way to sweeping the Celtics, the pressure is on for Golden State to close out the Spurs as quickly as possible. Kawhi Leonard is not going to be healthy for Game 3, and he might not play at all. The Spurs have had no answer for Golden State without him, and I don't think that will change just because they are playing on their home court. They trailed at the half in their last home game in these playoffs, a 110-107 OT win over Houston. They trailed at the half in two of three home games during that series. The Warriors won their last game in San Antonio by a score of 110-98, and Kevin Durant didn't even play in that game. Take GS. GL, Jesse Schule
05-19-17	Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 220	Top	130-86	Win	100	23 h 47 m	Show
This is a 10* play on CLE@BOS to go UNDER the total. The Celtics only scored 39 points in the first half of Game 1, and the game ended up going over the total by just one bucket. The bookmakers have set a higher total for Game 2, and I am expecting a more competitive game from Boston. These two teams had gone under in six straight meetings in Boston prior to Game 1. The Cavs aren't expecting much of a challenge here from the Celtics, but their performance in the series opener appeared to be a statement directed toward the Warriors. We could see them take their foot off the gas here in Game 2. Cleveland won Game 1 by a 13 point margin, and the difference was made up at the free throw line. The Cavs attempted a whopping 35 free throws, scoring 28 points. The Celtics attempted just 18 free throws, scoring just 10 points. I would think those numbers would even out a little here in Game 2. There were plenty of "easy buckets" in the last game, and I expect to see Boston play a little harder on defense down the stretch in this game. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
05-17-17	Cavs v. Celtics +4.5	Top	117-104	Loss	-110	23 h 0 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Boston Celtics. The Cavs are a big favorite here in the Eastern Conference Finals, but they might be a little slow out of the gates coming off a long layoff. Boston is full of confidence coming off a big Game 7 win over the Wizards, and I expect the Celtics to come out like gangbusters at home in Game 1. In the first round versus Indiana, the Cavs won Game 1 by just a single point. The Celtics have been strong at home, and they have covered the spread in five straight during this post-season run. Cleveland only covered the spread once in four regular season meetings versus Boston, and they lost outright by a score of 103-99 at the Garden in March. We saw how bad the Warriors looked in the first half of Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, and I think Cleveland might be at risk of a similar performance as they shake off the rust. Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule
05-16-17	Spurs v. Warriors OVER 209.5		100-136	Win	100	9 h 15 m	Show
This is an 8* play on SA@GS to go OVER the total. The Warriors were held to just 42 points in the first half of Game 1, and they trailed by 20 points heading into the third quarter. They went on an 18-0 run following the injury to Kawhi Leonard, and outscored San Antonio 71-49 in the second half. The Spurs couldn't stop Steph Curry and Kevin Durant without Leonard, and that might be a preview of how this series is going to go if Leonard is unable to play after suffering another ankle sprain. Golden State also scored 24 points at the free throw line, and that's one more reason to expect a lot of scoring here in Game 2. These two teams have gone over in three of the last four meetings, and the over is 8-2 in Spurs last 10 road games. The Warriors have gone over in five of their last seven overall. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
05-15-17	Wizards v. Celtics -4.5		105-115	Win	100	23 h 41 m	Show
This is a 7* play on the Boston Celtics. The home team has won each and every game in this series, but Boston came very close to winning Game 6 in Washington. Bradley Beal led all scorers with 33 points in the last game, but he hasn't been the same player in Boston. He's totaled just 30 points on 11-of-31 shooting in the last two games at The Garden. History has certainly favored home teams in previous Game 7s. The home team has won 101 of a total of 126 Game 7s all time. The Celtics as a franchise have been the most successful in Game 7s, winning 21-of-29 all time. They are 18-4 all time at home in Game 7s. Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule
05-15-17	Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 211	Top	105-115	Loss	-110	67 h 14 m	Show
This is a 10* play on WAS@BOS to go UNDER the total. The Wizards avoided elimination in Game 6 when John Wall hit a three-point shot with just three seconds on the clock to put Washington up by one. It was a clutch shot on a night when neither team shot the ball well, and every bucket was hard earned. Washington shot just 5-of-24 from beyond the arc, and they were just 13-of-21 from the free throw line. I expect to see another tightly contested defensive battle in a winner takes all contest at the Garden on Monday night. Washington really struggled in Game 5 in Boston, shooting just 38.5 percent from the field, and 24.1 percent from beyond the arc. Bradley Beal scored 33 points in Game 6 at home, three more than his combined points in the last two games in Boston. Over the last two seasons, we've seen six NBA playoff series go to a seventh and deciding game, and every one of those games saw fewer than 211 points. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
05-12-17	Celtics v. Wizards -5		91-92	Loss	-108	24 h 25 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Washington Wizards. The home team has won every game in this series so far, and the home team won and covered in every meeting during the regular season as well. I bet on Washington in Game 4, and here is what I said prior to the game: "Washington has led at halftime in all three games in this series, and finally in Game 3 at home they were able to hold a lead. They will try to even the series at 2-2 in Game 4 on Sunday, and I like their chances of doing just that. Isaiah Thomas struggled in Game 3, playing just 29 minutes, scoring 13 points on 3-of-8 shooting. He missed the beginning of the second half after having a tooth knocked out earlier in the game. He needed surgery to repair the damage, and while he's expected to play, he's going to be hurting, especially if he takes any more shots to the jaw area. Washington was one of the best home teams in the league during the regular season, and they've won by double digits in each of their last three home games against the Celtics. The Wizards owned the boards in the last game, out-rebounding Boston 50-38. I expect to see this series go seven games, with the home team winning each and every game."Take WAS. GL, Jesse Schule
05-11-17	Spurs v. Rockets OVER 213		114-75	Loss	-110	10 h 34 m	Show
This is an 8* play on SA@HOU to go OVER the total. These teams have gone over in four of the five games so far in this series, and I bet the over in the last two games. Here is what I said prior to Game 4: "The Spurs suffered their worst lost in history in Game 1 of this series versus Houston, but they have responded with back to back wins to take a 2-1 lead heading into Game 4. LaMarcus Aldridge struggled in the series opener, but he was great in Game 3, scoring 26 points with seven rebounds and four blocked shots. These teams played close gamed during the regular season, with three of the four decided by just a two point margin. The bookmakers have made the Rockets a six point favorite on Sunday, and the total is hovering around 212. San Antonio has seized the momentum, and their defense was impressive holding Houston to just 36.4 percent shooting in the last game. The Rockets are likely to be a lot better in tonight's must win game, and that should push the total higher than Game 3. The Spurs have gone over in six of their last seven road games, while Houston has gone over in six of their last eight following a double-digit home loss." I was a little lucky in Game 5, needing the overtime to go over. With Leonard injured, Houston should have little trouble scoring. I expect to see plenty of scoring here in Game 6. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
05-10-17	Wizards v. Celtics OVER 215		101-123	Win	100	11 h 46 m	Show
This is an 8* play on WAS@BOS to go OVER the total. The Wizards shot 52.4 percent from the field, and 42.9 percent from beyond the arc in Game 4, beating the Celtics by a score of 121-102. It was the third time in four games that these two teams went over the total in this series. Both games in Boston went over, and the Wizards led at halftime in each of those contests. The Celtics needed overtime to get past Washington in Game 2, however the two teams had already scored enough points in regulation to push the total over. John Wall went off for 40 points on 16-of-32 shooting in that game, but it wasn't enough as the Celtics won 129-119. Isaiah Thomas struggled in the second half of the last game, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get his swagger back here at home in Game 5. He was 10-of-23 from beyond the arc in the previous two games in Boston. The over is 5-0-1 in Boston's last six home games, and these two teams have gone over in eight of the last 11 meetings in Boston. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
05-09-17	Rockets v. Spurs OVER 214.5		107-110	Win	100	7 h 17 m	Show
This is a 10* play on HOU@SA to go OVER the total. The Rockets made an incredible 22 three-point shots in a blowout victory in Game 1 at San Antonio, but the Spurs bounced back with a 121-96 win in Game 2. Both of those games went over the total, and I expect another high scoring game here in Game 5. Here is what I had to say prior to the last game in this series: "The Spurs suffered their worst lost in history in Game 1 of this series versus Houston, but they have responded with back to back wins to take a 2-1 lead heading into Game 4. LaMarcus Aldridge struggled in the series opener, but he was great in Game 3, scoring 26 points with seven rebounds and four blocked shots. These teams played close gamed during the regular season, with three of the four decided by just a two point margin. The bookmakers have made the Rockets a six point favorite on Sunday, and the total is hovering around 212. San Antonio has seized the momentum, and their defense was impressive holding Houston to just 36.4 percent shooting in the last game. The Rockets are likely to be a lot better in tonight's must win game, and that should push the total higher than Game 3. The Spurs have gone over in six of their last seven road games, while Houston has gone over in six of their last eight following a double-digit home loss" Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
05-08-17	Warriors v. Jazz OVER 206	Top	121-95	Win	100	30 h 19 m	Show
This is a 10* play on GS@UTAH to go OVER the total. The Warriors swept the Blazers in the first round, and they have a chance to sweep the Jazz here in Game 4 in Salt Lake City. They scored more points in Game 4 against Portland than they did in any of the previous three games in that series, and I expect to see a high scoring game here in Utah tonight as well. Both these teams have played hard on defense so far, but with the Jazz trailing 0-3, we could see both teams ease up a little. I bet the over in Game 2, and here is what I said prior to that game: "The Warriors scored an average of 119 points per game in a four game sweep in their first round series versus Portland. That's well above the 115.9 points per game they averaged while leading the league in scoring during the regular season. The Jazz were the league's top defensive team this year, but they gave up an average of 97.7 points per game in a seven game series versus the Clippers in the first round, slightly more than their regular season average of 96.8 points per game. So much for the traditional logic that scoring goes down in the playoffs. Both these teams have a history of playing high scoring games in the playoffs. The Warriors have gone over in five of their last six Conference Semifinal games, while the over is 6-0-1 in Utah's last seven in the second round of the playoffs. The oddsmakers have set a low number here, and I think the value is on a play on the over." Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
05-07-17	Spurs v. Rockets OVER 212	Top	104-125	Win	100	10 h 18 m	Show
10*
05-07-17	Celtics v. Wizards -175	Top	102-121	Win	100	48 h 38 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Washington Wizards. Washington has led at halftime in all three games in this series, and finally in Game 3 at home they were able to hold a lead. They will try to even the series at 2-2 in Game 4 on Sunday, and I like their chances of doing just that. Isaiah Thomas struggled in Game 3, playing just 29 minutes, scoring 13 points on 3-of-8 shooting. He missed the beginning of the second half after having a tooth knocked out earlier in the game. He needed surgery to repair the damage, and while he's expected to play, he's going to be hurting, especially if he takes any more shots to the jaw area. Washington was one of the best home teams in the league during the regular season, and they've won by double digits in each of their last three home games against the Celtics. The Wizards owned the boards in the last game, out-rebounding Boston 50-38. I expect to see this series go seven games, with the home team winning each and every game. Take WAS. GL, Jesse Schule
05-04-17	Jazz v. Warriors OVER 204.5	Top	104-115	Win	100	12 h 48 m	Show
This is a 10* play on UTAH@GS to go OVER the total. The Warriors shot just 24.1 percent from three-point range in Game 1, and the total fell short of the number (206.5). We see an even lower number here in Game 2, and I expect the sharp shooting Warriors to be just a bit more accurate from long range in tonight's game. Here is what I said before the series started: "The Warriors scored an average of 119 points per game in a four game sweep in their first round series versus Portland. That's well above the 115.9 points per game they averaged while leading the league in scoring during the regular season. The Jazz were the league's top defensive team this year, but they gave up an average of 97.7 points per game in a seven game series versus the Clippers in the first round, slightly more than their regular season average of 96.8 points per game. So much for the traditional logic that scoring goes down in the playoffs. Both these teams have a history of playing high scoring games in the playoffs. The Warriors have gone over in five of their last six Conference Semifinal games, while the over is 6-0-1 in Utah's last seven in the second round of the playoffs. The oddsmakers have set a low number here, and I think the value is on a play on the over." Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
05-03-17	Rockets v. Spurs UNDER 216	Top	96-121	Loss	-102	10 h 17 m	Show
This is a 10* play on HOU@SA to go UNDER the total. The Rockets destroyed the Spurs in Game 1 of this series, winning by a score of 126-99 at San Antonio. They hit a whopping 22 three-point shots, and held the Spurs to 36.9 percent shooting. It's gut check time for the Spurs, and I expect Popovich to have his team ready to fight here in Game 2. The Spurs should step up their defensive intensity, and this game should be a lot closer than the series opener. During the regular season these teams went under in all four meetings, and all of those games were decided by six points or less. Houston has played low scoring games when in the role of underdog on the road. The under is 10-2-1 in the Rockets last 13 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Spurs are probably the best coached team in the league, and that's one reason why they almost always respond after a double-digit home loss. The Rockets can expect this game to be a lot tougher than Game 1. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
05-02-17	Jazz v. Warriors OVER 206.5		94-106	Loss	-105	23 h 38 m	Show
This is an 8* play on UTA@GS to go OVER the total. The Warriors scored an average of 119 points per game in a four game sweep in their first round series versus Portland. That's well above the 115.9 points per game they averaged while leading the league in scoring during the regular season. The Jazz were the league's top defensive team this year, but they gave up an average of 97.7 points per game in a seven game series versus the Clippers in the first round, slightly more than their regular season average of 96.8 points per game. So much for the traditional logic that scoring goes down in the playoffs. Both these teams have a history of playing high scoring games in the playoffs. The Warriors have gone over in five of their last six Conference Semifinal games, while the over is 6-0-1 in Utah's last seven in the second round of the playoffs. The oddsmakers have set a low number here, and I think the value is on a play on the over. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
05-01-17	Rockets +6 v. Spurs		126-99	Win	100	13 h 54 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Houston Rockets. The Rockets will be getting six points in Game 1 of this second round series versus San Antonio, and during the regular season these teams played four close games. Not one of those games was decided by more than six points, and in fact three of the four were decided by just two points. Houston beat the Oklahoma City Thunder in just five games in the first round, winning Game 4 at Oklahoma City. The one loss in Game 3 came by just a two point margin. The Spurs dominated the Grizzlies at home, but lost two of three games at Memphis allowing the Grizzlies to extend that series to six games. The road team has covered the spread in each of the last five meetings between these two teams, and the Spurs have not had much post-season success the last two seasons. In 2015 they were ousted by the Clippers in the first round, and they lost two of three home games in that series. Last year they lost to Oklahoma City in the second round, again losing two of three at home. I'll take the points with Houston here in Game 1. Take HOU. GL, Jesse Schule
05-01-17	Raptors +7 v. Cavs	Top	105-116	Loss	-107	56 h 44 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Toronto Raptors. While the Cavs swept Indiana in the first round, they didn't really look sharp in those four games. Cleveland is asked to cover a seven point spread here in Game 1 versus the Raptors, despite the fact that all four games against the Pacers were decided by six points or less. LeBron James is still the best player in the NBA, but Kyrie Irving has looked pretty average lately. He shot over 40 percent from beyond the arc during the regular season, but is hitting just over 20 percent from three-point range in the playoffs. He averaged 5.8 assists per game during the season, but is averaging just 3 APG in the post-season. Cleveland won three of four versus the Raptors during the regular season, but all three of those wins came in gamed decided by less than five points. Toronto is 5-1 ATS in it's last six road games, while the Cavs are 0-4 ATS in their last five at home. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between the two teams. Take TOR. GL, Jesse Schule
04-30-17	Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics		111-123	Loss	-105	14 h 40 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Washington Wizards. The Celtics came into the playoffs as the number one seed in the Eastern Conference, but they have the lowest point differential (+2.7 points) than any number one seed since the 78-79 Seattle Supersonics. They didn't look great against the Bulls, losing both Games 1 & 2 at home. If it wasn't for an injury to Rajon Rondo, the Bulls would have likely won the series. They host Washington in the second round, and the Wizards closed out Atlanta in six games, clinching the series on the road with a 115-99 win in Atlanta in Game 6. The Celtics leading scorer Isaiah Thomas averaged 28.9 points per game this season, but is averaging roughly five points less than that here in the post-season. He has really struggled with his three-point shooting, going 3-of-26 in his last three games. It's going to be tough for Thomas to keep up with John Wall, who went off for 42 points in Game 6 at Atlanta. The Celtics are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games, and I'll take the Wizards plus the points in Game 1. Take WAS. GL, Jesse Schule
04-28-17	Celtics -135 v. Bulls	Top	105-83	Win	100	10 h 9 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Boston Celtics. The Celtics can close out this first round series versus Chicago tonight, but they'll have to win again on the road. After losing both Games 1 & 2 at home, they have now won three straight, with two of those wins coming here at the United Center. Here is what I said prior to Game 4: "The Chicago Bulls shocked the Celtics by winning back to back games in Boston, but they lost Game 3 of this series at home by a whopping 17 points. The Celtics can even the series at 2-2 with a win in Chicago tonight, and the Bulls might be in big trouble without PG Rajon Rondo. Without him they had more turnovers (17) than assists (14) in Game 3. Backup point-guards Michael Carter-Williams and Jerian Grant score a combined eight points on 3-of-10 shooting. The Celtics defense completely shut down Jimmy Butler in the last game, holding him to 14 points on 7-of-21 shooting. The Celtics didn't have any trouble winning on the road during the regular season, and the Bulls are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Bulls appeared to be well on their way to recording the biggest upset of the first round, but the injury to Rondo may have derailed their playoff hopes." It would be a miracle if Rondo was able to play in Game 6, and even if he does, he won't be 100 percent. Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule
04-27-17	Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 196	Top	92-89	Win	100	58 h 11 m	Show
This is a 10* play on TOR@MIL to go UNDER the total. We've seen some low scoring games between the Bucks and the Raptors in this Eastern Conference quarterfinals series, but Game 5 in Toronto was a bit of a shootout. The Raptors hit 57.7 percent from the field and went 12-of-27 from beyond the arc in a 118-83 victory. The previous two games in Milwaukee were low scoring, and I expect to see another defensive battle here tonight. The Bucks held Toronto to just 77 points on 33.8 percent shooting in Game 3, and the Raptors held Milwaukee to just 76 points 37 percent shooting in Game 4. These two teams have failed to reach the total in seven of the last 10 meetings, and the under is 8-1 in Raptors last nine road games versus a team with a winning home record. Toronto has trended toward lower scoring games on the road, going under in 19 of their last 26 away from Air Canada Center. The Bucks on the other hand play lower scoring games at home, going under in eight of their last 11 at the Bradley Center. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
04-25-17	Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers	Top	96-92	Win	100	13 h 27 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Utah Jazz. The LA Clippers are in a tough spot here, playing at home without Blake Griffin against the Jazz in Game 5. This pivotal game will likely decide the series, and I like Utah's chances of recording another upset at the Staples Center. Griffin is the Clippers leading scorer, and they lost exactly half of the 22 games he missed this season. The Jazz won Game 4 despite Gordon Hayward missing most of the game due to food poisoning. Hayward played just nine minutes and scored a total of three points. The return of Rudy Gobert helped make up for it, the Jazz leading rebounder scored 15 points and pulled in 13 rebounds. Hayward is expected to be ready to go for tonight's game, and he led all scorers with 40 points in Game 3. The Jazz have covered the spread in five of their last seven trips to LA, and I just don't think the Clippers should be asked to cover points against the league's #1 defense without their leading scorer. Take UTAH. GL, Jesse Schule
04-24-17	Warriors v. Blazers +7.5	Top	128-103	Loss	-110	28 h 38 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Portland Trail Blazers. The Warriors head into Game 4 looking to clinch this series in four straight games. They needed to come from behind in Game 3, trailing by 13 points at halftime. Normally a team down 0-3 in a series would only be playing for pride, but there might be a small glimpse of hope for the Blazers. Golden State is in a bit of trouble, with head coach Steve Kerr sidelined by an illness, and superstar Kevin Durant nursing a calf injury. Role players Matt Barnes and Shaun Livingston are also likely to miss Game 4. These teams met last year in the second round of the playoffs, and even when the Warriors had Portland on the ropes, the Blazers never stopped fighting. They were facing elimination in Game 5 in Oakland, and lost by a score of 125-121. They won Game 3 at home by double-digits, and lost in overtime in Game 4. The Blazers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 playing on one day's rest. I'll take the points here with the home dog. Take POR. GL, Jesse Schule
04-23-17	Celtics -120 v. Bulls		104-95	Win	100	6 h 18 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics. The Chicago Bulls shocked the Celtics by winning back to back games in Boston, but they lost Game 3 of this series at home by a whopping 17 points. The Celtics can even the series at 2-2 with a win in Chicago tonight, and the Bulls might be in big trouble without PG Rajon Rondo. Without him they had more turnovers (17) than assists (14) in Game 3. Backup point-guards Michael Carter-Williams and Jerian Grant score a combined eight points on 3-of-10 shooting. The Celtics defense completely shut down Jimmy Butler in the last game, holding him to 14 points on 7-of-21 shooting. The Celtics didn't have any trouble winning on the road during the regular season, and the Bulls are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Bulls appeared to be well on their way to recording the biggest upset of the first round, but the injury to Rondo may have derailed their playoff hopes. Take BOS. GL, Jesse Schule
04-23-17	Rockets +1 v. Thunder		113-109	Win	100	5 h 24 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Houston Rockets. The Thunder came out like gangbusters in Game 3, taking a double digit lead to the locker room at halftime. Houston out-scored them 30-22 in the fourth quarter, coming up just short in a 113-11 loss. I like the Rockets chances of getting off to a better start here in Game 4, and taking a commanding 3-1 series lead. Here is what I said prior to Game 2: "James Harden played like an MVP in Game 1, scoring 37 points on 13-of-28 shooting, with nine assists and seven rebounds. Russell Westbrook really struggled, shooting just 6-of-23 from the field and 3-of-11 from beyond the arc. The Rockets crushed the Thunder on the boards, out-rebounding them 56-41. The final score was 118-87, and that shouldn't be much of a surprise considering the history between the two teams. The Rockets won three of four in the regular season series, and the last game at Houston (in the regular season) was a 137-125 win for the Rockets. Houston was one of the league's best home teams, while Oklahoma City had a losing record on the road. Oklahoma City has covered the spread just once in the last 11 meetings between the two teams, failing to cover in six of their last seven in Houston. Westbrook's "one man show" might play well for the fans during the regular season (in Oklahoma City), but it's not going to fly here in the playoffs." Take HOU. GL, Jesse Schule
04-22-17	Warriors v. Blazers OVER 217	Top	119-113	Win	100	12 h 14 m	Show
This is a 10* play on GS@POR to go OVER the total. The Warriors won Game 1 of this series by a score of 121-109, easily going over the total of 220. Game 2 was a lower scoring battle with the Warriors winning 110-81. The series shifts to Portland, and I am expecting a shootout in Game 3. These two teams met in the second round of last year's playoffs, and after a high scoring opener, they went under in Game 2. The Blazers won Game 3 by a score of 120-108, and I'm expecting tonight's game to follow that same script. The Blazers have gone over in six of their last seven home meetings with Golden State, and the one game that went under was a 113-11 Warriors win, falling shot of the total of 224.5. Tonight's total is far lower than it was in any of the last six meetings in this series. The Blazers averaged 109.9 points per game at home this season, while the Warriors averaged 213 points per game on the road. Both teams like to play a similar style, and we should see plenty of scoring here in tonight's pivotal Game 3. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
04-21-17	Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 197	Top	111-106	Loss	-108	32 h 51 m	Show
This is a 10* play on LAC@UTAH to go UNDER the total. After back to back unders in the first two games in this series, I don't think there's any reason to expect a different result when the series shifts to Utah. Here is what I said prior to Game 2: "The Jazz upset the Clippers in Game 1, holding LA to 95 points on 44.4 percent shooting. Utah led the NBA in opponent's scoring average during the regular season, allowing just 96.8 points per game. Game 1 of this series fell well short of the total, and it was the fourth time in Utah's last five games at LA that the total landed below the number. Utah has also gone under in four of it's last five road games. The Clippers are an above average defensive team, and here in a "must win", they should step up the intensity. DeAndre Jordan ranks third in the NBA averaging three blocks per game, and he blocked three shots in Game 1. Playoff basketball is often a lot more defensive than the style of play seen during the regular season. That is evidenced by the fact that the Jazz have gone under in five straight Conference Quarterfinals games, and LA has failed to reach the total in five of their last seven in the first round of the playoffs." Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
04-20-17	Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 197	Top	77-104	Win	100	29 h 48 m	Show
This is a 10* play on TOR@MIL to go UNDER the total. I hit the under in Game 1 of this series, and then I didn't have a bet on Game 2, when the total went way over. Both teams shot close to 50 percent from three-point range in Game 2, well above their season averages. That's unlikely to happen again here in Milwaukee in Game 3. I expect tonight's game to be similar to Game 1, and here is what I had to say before this series started: "The Milwaukee Bucks will face the Raptors in Toronto tonight, and the Bucks lost three of four games in the season series. Three of those four games went under the total, and the Bucks scored an average of just 96.5 points in those games. Milwaukee had a strong second half, and finished ranked top 10 in the NBA in opponent's scoring average. The Bucks have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 10 versus the Raptors, and four of their last five at Toronto. Scoring normally goes down in the playoffs, and the under is 9-2-2 in Milwaukee's last 13 Conference Quarterfinals games. The Raptors have gone under in six of their last seven Conference Quarterfinals games. Last year in their first round series versus the Pacers, six of seven games failed to reach a total of 200 points" Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
04-19-17	Thunder v. Rockets -8	Top	111-115	Loss	-102	8 h 39 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Houston Rockets. James Harden played like an MVP in Game 1, scoring 37 points on 13-of-28 shooting, with nine assists and seven rebounds. Russell Westbrook really struggled, shooting just 6-of-23 from the field and 3-of-11 from beyond the arc. The Rockets crushed the Thunder on the boards, out-rebounding them 56-41. The final score was 118-87, and that shouldn't be much of a surprise considering the history between the two teams. The Rockets won three of four in the regular season series, and the last game at Houston (in the regular season) was a 137-125 win for the Rockets. Houston was one of the league's best home teams, while Oklahoma City had a losing record on the road. Oklahoma City has covered the spread just once in the last 11 meetings between the two teams, failing to cover in six of their last seven in Houston. Westbrook's "one man show" might play well for the fans during the regular season (in Oklahoma City), but it's not going to fly here in the playoffs. Take HOU. GL, Jesse Schule
04-18-17	Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 197.5	Top	91-99	Win	100	12 h 16 m	Show
This is a 10* play on UTA@LAC to go UNDER the total. The Jazz upset the Clippers in Game 1, holding LA to 95 points on 44.4 percent shooting. Utah led the NBA in opponent's scoring average during the regular season, allowing just 96.8 points per game. Game 1 of this series fell well short of the total, and it was the fourth time in Utah's last five games at LA that the total landed below the number. Utah has also gone under in four of it's last five road games. The Clippers are an above average defensive team, and here in a "must win", they should step up the intensity. DeAndre Jordan ranks third in the NBA averaging three blocks per game, and he blocked three shots in Game 1. Playoff basketball is often a lot more defensive than the style of play seen during the regular season. That is evidenced by the fact that the Jazz have gone under in five straight Conference Quarterfinals games, and LA has failed to reach the total in five of their last seven in the first round of the playoffs. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
04-17-17	Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 188.5	Top	82-96	Loss	-105	11 h 1 m	Show
This is a 10* play on MEM@SA to go OVER the total. The Spurs put on a defensive clinic in Game 1 of this first round series versus Memphis, holding the Grizzlies to just 39.2 percent shooting in a 111-82 home win. That game still went over the total of 190, and the total for tonight's game is even lower than it was in Game 1. I expect Memphis to battle back here in Game 2, and they should be a little better offensively. The Grizzlies trailed by just three points at the half in Game 1 (52-49). They only managed to score 33 points in the second half, but the Spurs didn't slow down at all. San Antonio hit 10-of-19 three-point attempts, and shot 53.2 percent from the field. While these are two of the top defensive teams in the NBA, the bookmakers may be overcompensating for that with a total that is far lower than it was in any of the five meetings in this series this season. The Spurs have gone over in four of their last five overall, while the Grizzlies have gone under just once in their last five games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
04-16-17	Blazers v. Warriors OVER 219.5	Top	109-121	Win	100	6 h 46 m	Show
This is a 10* play on POR@GS to go OVER the total. The Warriors won 15 of their final 16 games this season, and during that span they scored at least 110 points 11 times. Golden State swept the season series, and they scored an average of 125 points in the four regular season meetings versus Portland. Both these teams love to shoot the ball from long range, and that normally translates into plenty of scoring. The Blazers have seen the total go over in nine of their last 12 visits to Golden State, and the over is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings overall in this series. The total for today's game is lower than it was in all four of the regular season games between the two teams. Kevin Durant sure looked healthy in the regular season finale, scoring 29 points, hitting 5-of-7 from beyond the arc. Both teams averaged over 12 made three-pointers per game in April, so expect to see a shooting clinic here in Game 1. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
04-15-17	Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 203.5	Top	97-83	Win	100	52 h 40 m	Show
This is a 10* play on MIL@TOR to go UNDER the total. The Milwaukee Bucks will face the Raptors in Toronto tonight, and the Bucks lost three of four games in the season series. Three of those four games went under the total, and the Bucks scored an average of just 96.5 points in those games. Milwaukee had a strong second half, and finished ranked top 10 in the NBA in opponent's scoring average. The Bucks have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 10 versus the Raptors, and four of their last five at Toronto. Scoring normally goes down in he playoffs, and the under is 9-2-2 in Milwaukee's last 13 Conference Quarterfinals games. The Raptors have gone under in six of their last seven Conference Quarterfinals games. Last year in their first round series versus the Pacers, six of seven games failed to reach a total of 200 points. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
04-15-17	Pacers v. Cavs UNDER 213	Top	108-109	Loss	-110	49 h 36 m	Show
This is a 10* play on IND@CLE to go UNDER the total. The Pacers will be a nine point underdog on the road in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series versus Cleveland tonight. Indiana finished the season with five straight wins, and they played some strong defense in those games. Both these teams did more than their fair share of scoring during the regular season, and because of that we see a high total in Game 1 here in the playoffs. History tells us that playoff basketball is a different animal, with more focus on defense. That is evidenced by the fact that Indiana has gone under in eight of it's last nine Conference Quarterfinals games, while the Cavs have gone under in five of their last seven first round games. Last year Cleveland swept the Pistons in the first round, and three of those four games saw fewer than 200 points. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
04-06-17	Bucks v. Pacers UNDER 205	Top	89-104	Win	100	6 h 35 m	Show
This is a 10* play on MIL@IND to go UNDER the total. It's common knowledge that scoring goes down in the NBA Playoffs, due to an increased emphasis on defense in meaningful games. We will see two teams battling to make the playoffs in Indiana tonight when the Pacers host the Bucks. Milwaukee is sitting in fifth place, but is just two games up on the ninth place Pacers. Indiana is tied with Miami for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East, and that makes this game a must win for the Pacers. They are coming off a huge win over Toronto on Tuesday, holding the Raptors to just 39 points in the second half of a 108-90 victory. I expect to see a similar effort here at home tonight. The Bucks have gone under in six of their last eight road games, and 15 of their last 22 overall. Indiana has failed to reach the total in 10 of it's last 14 when coming off a win. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
04-04-17	Bulls -155 v. Knicks	Top	91-100	Loss	-155	15 h 5 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls are one of the league's hottest teams, coming into New York as winners of four straight. Jimmy butler is the Player of the Week, scoring an average of over 30 points in his last five games. The Knicks have won just twice in their last nine games, and veteran stars Carmelo Anthony, Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah have all been sidelined by injuries. Anthony is hoping to play in the Knicks final five games, but has only played in two of New York's last five. Chicago has adjusted well without Dwyane Wade, winning six of nine since he last played. Rajon Rondo has stepped up, averaging 11.6 points, 8.4 assists and 6.1 rebounds in the last nine games. The Knicks have had Chicago's number in recent meetings, but the Knicks don't have a lot to play for here, and Chicago can still clinch a playoff spot. Take CHI. GL, Jesse Schule
04-03-17	North Carolina -125 v. Gonzaga	Top	71-65	Win	100	19 h 28 m	Show
This is a 10* play on UNC. It's hard to argue that the two best teams haven't made it to this year's NCAA Final. The Gonzaga Bulldogs were almost undefeated during the regular season, and were ranked #1 overall for several weeks. The Tar Heels come in as the ACC champs, and the team that lost in the Final to Villanova last year. They watched the Wildcats celebrate after winning with a buzzer beater as time expired, but here they have a chance to exercise those demons. I bet against Gonzaga in the Final Four, and said the following prior to their game against the Gamecocks: "The Bulldogs are the heavy favorite here, coming in as a #1 seed with a record of 36-1. It's important to consider that all their impressive stats are skewed due to the fact that they play in one of the country's weakest conferences, beating up on bottom feeders for most of the regular season. While they blew out Xavier in their Elite Eight matchup, they narrowly escaped with close wins in tight games against Northwestern and West Virginia before that." The Tar Heels had a far more impressive run to the Finals, and their overall resume is far more impressive. There's something to be said for "being here before", and that should prove to be advantage for the Tar Heels. Take UNC. GL, Jesse Schule
04-01-17	Magic v. Nets -155	Top	111-121	Win	100	15 h 32 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets don't need to worry about tanking to improve their draft position, as they have the worst record all but locked up with just a few games left to play. They've actually been far more competitive recently, winning three of their last six overall, and two of their last three home games. They host Orlando tonight, and the Magic are playing on back to back nights coming off a heartbreaking one-point loss at Boston. Orlando has lost eight of it's last 10 overall, and has failed to cover in four of it's last five road games. Jeremy Lin has struggled with injuries this year, but he's looking pretty healthy in the month of March. He's played in 16 games, averaging 14.4 points and 4.5 assists per game. Despite the Nets poor overall record, they have performed well against the spread. They have covered the spread in six of their last eight games versus teams with a losing record. This looks like a good spot for Brooklyn to show off in front of the home crowd. Take BKN. GL, Jesse Schule
04-01-17	South Carolina +7 v. Gonzaga		73-77	Win	100	15 h 38 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the South Carolina Gamecocks. I certainly never expected South Carolina to make it to the Final Four, especially after finishing the regular season with six losses in their final nine games. They did go 12-6 in the SEC this year though, and this team has come together at the right time. They have already taken down 2, 3 and 4 seeds (Duke, Baylor, FLA). The Bulldogs are now in uncharted territory, playing in the Final Four for the first time. The Bulldogs are the heavy favorite here, coming in as a #1 seed with a record of 36-1. It's important to consider that all their impressive stats are skewed due to the fact that they play in one of the country's weakest conferences, beating up on bottom feeders for most of the regular season. While they blew out Xavier in their Elite Eight matchup, they narrowly escaped with close wins in tight games against Northwestern and West Virginia before that. The Gamecocks are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games as an underdog. They are also 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 non-conference games. Take SOCAR. GL, Jesse Schule
03-31-17	Rockets v. Warriors -8	Top	98-107	Win	100	14 h 25 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors will host Houston tonight, looking to make it 10 straight wins since they lost at San Antonio on March 11. Houston is playing on back to back nights, and their third game in four nights. The first of those four games was a 113-106 home loss to the Warriors. James Harden has struggled, playing through the pain of a lingering wrist injury. He had a season low four assists in last night's loss at Portland, and he could see limited minutes here tonight. "It will get better, but if I keep banging on it and keep falling on it, then it's going to keep going back to Square 1," Harden noted to reporters before Thursday's game. "I try to limit banging on it and keeping it away from contact, (but) it's kinda hard because it's my left hand. I do a lot with my left hand." Despite expectations of high scoring games, these two teams have failed to reach the total in five of the last six head to head meetings. The Warriors have gone under in 10 straight overall, and have held opponents to under 100 points in six of their last eight. Take GS. GL, Jesse Schule
03-30-17	Georgia Tech +3.5 v. TCU	Top	56-88	Loss	-110	22 h 25 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech was one of the top defensive teams in the ACC this year, but during the regular season the offense often failed to click. That hasn't been the case here in the NIT Tournament, as the Yellow Jackets have averaged over 71 points per game on 44.8 percent shooting over their last five. Defense is still their strength though, holding opponents to just 61.6 points per game on 37 percent shooting during that span. They will play TCU in the NIT Final at Madison Square Garden, and they looked pretty comfortable in New York in their 76-61 win over Cal State Bakersfield in the Semi Final. For whatever reason, bettors aren't that fond of Georgia Tech. They are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall, but they are actually getting points here against a mediocre BIG12 team. Georgia Tech has covered the spread in six straight versus teams from the BIG12. Take GT. GL, Jesse Schule
03-29-17	Wizards v. Clippers -5		124-133	Win	100	20 h 14 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the LA Clippers. The Washington Wizards have struggled on the road all season long, and playing the Clippers in LA on back to back nights looks like a particularly tough spot. The Clippers have been playing well, winning three of their last four home games. They should have made it four straight wins at home but blew a 15 point lead in the final five minutes in a shocking 98-97 loss to the Kings Sunday. They've had a couple days off to regroup, and I expect them to come out focused here, looking to put that loss behind them. The Clippers have won seven of 10 meetings with Washington since 2012, and they won all five home games during that span. Washington trailed by 16 with two minutes to play in the 3rd quarter in last night's win over the Lakers. With the victory they clinched first place in the Southeast Division, setting them up for a massive let down here tonight. Take LAC. GL, Jesse Schule
03-29-17	Hornets v. Raptors -6		110-106	Loss	-110	20 h 3 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Raptors. The Charlotte Hornets are coming off a 118-108 home loss to Milwaukee, and they play on back to back nights north of the border Wednesday. The Raptors are coming off a blowout win at home over Orlando (131-112). Toronto has won six of the last eight head to head meetings, and four straight home meetings in this series. Toronto is coming in riding a six game winning streak, and it's going to be hard for the Hornets to halt that while playing on no rest. The Hornets are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest, and 9-19-2 ATS in their last 30 road games versus a team with a winning home record. DeMar Derozan is lighting it up lately, averaging over 31 points per game over his last five. Toronto shot an incredible 59 percent from the field in Monday's win over Orlando. Take TOR. GL, Jesse Schule
03-29-17	Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 208		99-92	Win	100	20 h 34 m	Show
This is an 8* play on ATL@PHI to go UNDER the total. The Atlanta Hawks finally snapped a seven game losing streak with a 95-91 home win over Phoenix. It was their eighth consecutive game failing to score over 100 points, but they turned up the heat defensively. The Hawks are banged up, missing leading scorer Paul Millsap and forwards Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha. While they still sit in fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings, eighth place Miami is just two games back. Atlanta can't afford to keep on losing, and I expect them to play inspired basketball coming off last night's win. The total for tonight's game looks a little high, especially considering the last time these two teams met the number was under 200. In fact they have only gone over tonight's number twice in the last 10 meetings. Atlanta has gone under in 15 of it's last 20 overall, and that's a trend that should continue tonight. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-28-17	Nuggets v. Blazers -140	Top	113-122	Win	100	24 h 55 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Portland Blazers. The Blazers have won six of their last seven games, putting them in a tie with Denver for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. It's Deja Vu All Over Again for Portland, as they won seven of their last nine games of the regular season last year, and went on to upset the LA Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. They will host Denver tonight, and the Nuggets are coming off a terrible home loss to New Orleans (115-90). The Nuggets beat the Blazers at home in the last meeting between the two teams, but Portland won the previous five in the series. Denver is 0-4 in four visits to Portland since 2014. The Blazers are not known for their defense, but they've held opponents to 100 points on less in five of their last six overall. Denver ranks 27th in the NBA allowing over 111 points per game, and has allowed over 110 points in four straight games. Take POR. GL, Jesse Schule
03-26-17	Grizzlies +10 v. Warriors	Top	94-106	Loss	-110	14 h 38 m	Show
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03-26-17	Grizzlies v. Warriors OVER 208	Top	94-106	Loss	-110	14 h 37 m	Show
This is a 10* play on MEM@GS to go Over the total. The Warriors have their mojo back, coming into tonight's home game against the Grizzlies as winners of six straight. They've scored over 110 points in their last five games, but they haven't reached the total in any of their last nine games. Bookmakers have noticed, and the total for tonight's game is much lower than it was in any of the last five meetings in this series. Three of those games went over the total, but both these teams are riding under trends at the moment. Steph Curry has been heating up, hitting 53.2 percent from the field and 48.9 percent from beyond the arc over his last five games. These teams have met twice this season, and both of those games went way over. I expect both teams to go over 100 points here tonight, and it looks like the value lies with a play on over. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-26-17	Kentucky v. North Carolina -140	Top	73-75	Win	100	29 h 39 m	Show
This is a 10* play on UNC. The Tar Heels finished first in the ACC with a record of 14-4 in conference. That's particularly impressive when consider the caliber in the ACC compared to a much weaker SEC. As good as Kentucky looked against UCLA, I don't like the Wildcats chances of shutting down North Carolina. The story in Kentucky's last game was De'Aaron Fox outplaying Lonzo Ball. Unlike UCLA, the Tar Heels don't rely on any one player to carry the load. They have four players averaging over 12 points per game, and they have plenty of depth coming off the bench. The Tar Heels are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games, and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 versus the SEC. Kentucky has had trouble with the Tar Heels over the years, going 3-9-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Take UNC. GL, Jesse Schule
03-25-17	Wolves v. Blazers -7	Top	100-112	Win	100	14 h 33 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Portland Blazers. Portland is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, and this is starting to look like another late season push for the playoffs like we saw last year. The Blazers have won nine of their last 12, and their last three wins have been in games decided by double-digits. The Minnesota Timberwolves are in town tonight, playing their second game of a back to back and coming in as losers of five straight. Four of those five losses were by 10 or more points, and that includes last night's 130-119 loss at the Lakers. That loss was particularly disturbing, blowing an eight point lead in the final 2 and a half minutes. The Wolves are likely to lay down here in a tough spot against a hungry Blazers team, and I expect a blowout. Take POR. GL, Jesse Schule
03-25-17	Oregon v. Kansas -6.5		74-60	Loss	-116	20 h 40 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Kansas Jayhawks. The Oregon Ducks barely escaped a scare in a 69-68 win over Michigan in the Sweet 16, and they will need to be much better to avoid a blowout here against Kansas. The Jayhawks come in firing on all cylinders offensively, scoring an average of 96 points in their three tournament games. They blew the doors off in a 98-66 win over Purdue in the Sweet 16, hitting 54.8 percent from the field and 53.6 percent from beyond the arc. The BIG12 champs will be crowd favorites at the Sprint Center in Kansas, making things even tougher for Oregon. Kansas has covered the spread in seven of it's last eight as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament, while the Ducks have struggled when playing the better teams. Oregon is 1-5-1 ATS the spread in it's last seven versus teams with a winning record, and 1-4-1 ATS against teams with a .600 or better record. The Ducks made the Elite 8 last year, but lost 80-68 to a BIG12 opponent (Oklahoma). They have played just one BIG12 team this season, and they got blown out in a 66-49 loss to Baylor. I don't like Oregon's chances of competing with the best of the BIG12. Take KAN. GL, Jesse Schule
03-24-17	Wisconsin v. Florida -135	Top	83-84	Win	100	81 h 19 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Florida Gators. The Gators finished second in the SEC with 26 wins. They played 12 games at Neutral sites, winning nine of them. Florida's win over Virginia in the last round was historic, holding the Cavs to a record low 39 points. That's worrisome for a Wisconsin team that has struggled on offense at times this year. The Badgers have averaged just 68.3 points per game at neutral sites this season, and they haven't been great from the free throw line, hitting just 64.3 percent overall. Wisconsin lost six of it's final 10 games prior to the NCAA Tournament, failing to score 60 points in four of those six losses. Wisconsin has shot for an uncharacteristically high percentage in the tournament so far, and this is a team that only averages 44.2 percent at neutral sites. I expect the Badgers shooters to cool off here against a top tier defense like Florida. The Gators should have a huge edge in scoring, rebounding and free throw shooting. Take FLA. GL, Jesse Schule
03-24-17	Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 203.5	Top	97-100	Win	100	19 h 6 m	Show
This is a 10* play on ATL@MIL to go UNDER the total. The surging Milwaukee Bucks have won 10 of their last 12 overall, climbing all the way to sixth in the Eastern Conference standings. They have been playing great defense during that stretch, holding opponents under 100 points in eight of those 10 wins. They host the 5th place Atlanta Hawks tonight, and they only trail the Hawks by one game. This game is key for both teams, and with massive playoff implications, expect both teams to bring it on defense. The Hawks have lost five straight, and haven't scored more than 100 points in any of those games. Leading scorer Paul Millsap has missed the last three games with a knee injury, and will not play in Milwaukee. Atlanta has failed to reach the total in seven of it's last eight road games, while the Bucks have gone under in four straight at home. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-24-17	South Carolina v. Baylor -165		70-50	Loss	-165	18 h 15 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Baylor Bears. The South Carolina Gamecocks only won three of their last nine games of the regular season, but they have come alive in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. They might suffer a let down here against Baylor though, following their improbable upset win over Duke. The Bears were at one point ranked #1 overall this season, and they finished second in the BIG12. Baylor won five of eight games versus ranked teams during the regular season, while the Gamecocks were 3-2 in five games against ranked teams. These teams have played three times since 2010, with Baylor winning all three. The Bears are 7-2 ATS in their last nine non-conference games, while the Gamecocks have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 against teams with a winning record. Baylor out-rebounded the Trojans by a +11 margin in their last game, and have owned the boards over their last five games with a +9 margin. Take BAY. GL, Jesse Schule
03-24-17	Nuggets v. Pacers UNDER 220.5	Top	125-117	Loss	-110	18 h 9 m	Show
This is a 10* play on DEN@IND to go UNDER the total. The Denver Nuggets are one of the league's highest scoring teams, ranking 3rd in the NBA in scoring. Their scoring average is significantly higher at home though, and they face a tough road game tonight in Indiana. The Pacers are a solid 25-10 at home, and they haven't allowed an opponent to score more than 100 points in five straight home games. They sit seventh in the Eastern Conference Standings, and with only 2.5 games separating them from the 8th, 9th and 10th place teams, they need to keep winning games. The Pacers improved defense has caused them to cash in lately for under bettors. They've failed to reach the total in 12 of their last 16 overall, and the under is 6-2 in Pacers last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-24-17	Pistons v. Magic UNDER 207	Top	87-115	Win	100	18 h 5 m	Show
This is a 10* play on DET@ORL to go UNDER the total. The Pistons are tied with Chicago, and both teams trail the eighth place Heat for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They play on the road at Orlando tonight, and we should see a hard fought battle. Detroit lost to the Bulls by a score of 117-95 on Wednesday, but they had held opponents under 100 points in four straight games prior to that. The Magic really struggle offensively, ranking 29th in the NBA in scoring. The Pistons are one of the league's top defensive teams, and given the high stakes here I expect them to make life very difficult for the home team. The Magic rank dead last in the NBA in three-point shooting, and the Pistons are just slightly better ranking 27th. Only the Miami Heat shoot the ball for a lower percentage from the free throw line than the Pistons, and the Magic aren't much better ranking 27th. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-23-17	Clippers -4 v. Mavs		95-97	Loss	-110	20 h 22 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the LAC. The Clippers are just a game back of Utah for fourth place in the Western Conference, and they come into Dallas as winners of three straight. The Mavs have lost four of their last six overall, putting their playoff hopes in serious doubt. The Clippers have won three of the last four meetings in this series, with two of those wins coming in Dallas. LA has won 20 games on the road this season, which is even more impressive than it looks. Both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin have been out of the lineup for extended stretches, but the team is getting healthy in time for the playoffs. At full strength, I think the Clippers will be too much for the Mavs to handle. Chris Paul scored 27 points on 9-of-15 shooting in a blowout win over the Lakers on Tuesday. Take LAC. GL, Jesse Schule
03-23-17	Grizzlies v. Spurs UNDER 199	Top	90-97	Win	100	20 h 23 m	Show
This is a 10* play on MEM@SA to go UNDER the total. The Spurs host the Grizzlies in a "Grudge Match" in San Antonio tonight, looking to avenge a pair of losses in this series earlier this season. Memphis won at home by a score of 104-96 on Saturday, and the Grizzlies held the Spurs to a season low points total in an 89-74 win at San Antonio in February. These two teams rank 2nd and 3rd in the NBA in opponent's scoring average, and only one of the last seven meetings in this series has seen more than 200 points combined. The total for this game is far higher than it was in nine of the last 10 meetings between the two teams. This game has massive playoff implications, with a possible first round playoff matchup looking likely. The total has gone under in four of the Grizzlies last five visits to San Antonio, and history should repeat itself here tonight. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-23-17	Suns v. Nets -4	Top	98-126	Win	100	19 h 21 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets have been quite competitive lately, coming into tonight's home game against Phoenix as winners of three of their last six. The Suns have lost five straight and seven of their last eight overall. Injuries have taken their toll on Phoenix, with Eric Bledsoe, Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight done for the remainder of the season. Jeremy Lin has been in and out of the lineup for the Nets, but he's expected to play in tonight's game. The Suns have not performed well in previous meetings with Brooklyn, failing to cover in eight of the last 11 meetings, and losing four of their last five at Brooklyn. The Nets won the last meeting by a score of 122-104 in Phoenix back in November. Nets center Brook Lopez is lighting it up lately, averaging 26 points per game over his last five. He scored 29 points in Tuesday's win over the Pistons, and he should fill the stat sheet here against a defensively challenged Phoenix team. Take BKN. GL, Jesse Schule
03-23-17	Michigan v. Oregon +1.5	Top	68-69	Win	100	54 h 12 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Oregon Ducks. The Michigan Wolverines are a team that has gotten hot at the right time. After winning six of their final eight regular season games, they won four games in four days, clinching the BIG10 Tournament Final with a 71-56 win over Wisconsin. They shot 56.3 percent from the field in that game, and hit 10-of-23 three-point attempts. They shot the ball just as well in their first round win over Oklahoma State, but won that game by just a single point. The Wolverines hot shooting has masked some of their glaring weaknesses. They were out-rebounded 40-21 versus Oklahoma State, and 37-30 versus Louisville. The Ducks come in averaging 34.8 rebounds per game in their last five. That's more than 10 rebounds more than the Wolverines have averaged during the same span. Oregon has scored over 80 points per game over their last five, and the Ducks have the firepower to match Michigan shot for shot. Oregon didn't have a great game against Rhode Island, but still managed to do enough to win. Michigan has failed to cover in four of it's last five versus teams from the PAC12, and I think the Cinderella run could end here in the Sweet 16. Take ORE. GL, Jesse Schule
03-22-17	Pistons -125 v. Bulls	Top	95-117	Loss	-125	20 h 35 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Detroit Pistons. Both the Bulls and the Pistons are coming off tough losses last night, and the two teams will play the second game of a back to back in Chicago tonight. The Bulls loss in Toronto was particularly tough, blowing a big lead and losing in overtime. They are also likely to lose big man Robin Lopez, after he was ejected for exchanging punches with Serge Ibaka. The league is likely to issue a suspension of some sort prior to tonight's game. Losing their leading rebounder is likely to hurt the Bulls against a Detroit team that is among the leagues best when it comes to rebounding. The Pistons are just one game back of Miami for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East, and I believe they are far more motivated to make the playoffs than are the Bulls. Chicago has already lost veteran Dywane Wade for the season, and there is a toxic atmosphere in the locker room. The issues are often magnified when coming off a tough loss, blowing a late lead. Everybody is going to be pointing fingers. The Pistons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 versus Chicago, and they've won and covered in three of the last four meetings in this series. Take DET. GL, Jesse Schule
03-21-17	Georgia Tech v. Ole Miss -5	Top	74-66	Loss	-110	23 h 60 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Ole Miss Rebels. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are coming off back to back impressive wins in the NIT Tournament. Both of those were home games though, and they have really struggled on the road. Their most recent road game was a blowout loss (90-61) at Syracuse, where the Rebels just beat the Orange by a score of 85-80. The Yellow Jackets come into Mississippi as losers of seven straight road games. While they do play strong defense, they simply can't seem to score enough points on the road. Georgia Tech has averaged just 63.3 points per game on 42.1 percent shooting in road games, which is roughly 17 points fewer than the Rebels average at home. The Yellow Jackets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games following three or more consecutive home games. The Rebels have covered the spread in five straight non conference games, and six of their last seven home games. Take MISS. GL, Jesse Schule
03-21-17	Bulls v. Raptors -6.5		120-122	Loss	-110	16 h 27 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Raptors. The Bulls have lost seven of their last nine overall, and they have dropped all the way to 10th place in the Eastern Conference. It's looking less likely by the day that the Bulls will be playing in the post-season, but as I said a few weeks ago, I don't think they are all that interested in getting their butts kicked by Cleveland in the first round. Dywane Wade is done for the year, and the looker room remains divided between players and coaching staff. The Raptors are starting to look like the playoff contender they were supposed to be, coming in as winners of three of their last four. They've lost 11 straight to the Bulls, and that's something that hasn't been lost on Dwane Casey: "Set the tone defensively from start to finish from the jump ball. That's the way we have to play and continue. Whatever we have to do to get this (monkey) off our back against Chicago, they beat us 11 in a row and that has to stop. Collectively, whatever we have to do defensively and offensively to set the tone, we have to do that." I expect a motivated Raptors teams to win big here at home in a game with massive playoff implications. Take TOR. GL, Jesse Schule
03-19-17	Kings v. Spurs UNDER 202.5	Top	102-118	Loss	-103	7 h 24 m	Show
This is a 10* play on SAC@SA to go UNDER the total. The Spurs are coming off back to back losses, and they return home to play bottom feeders Sacramento tonight. The Kings have been a good bet when visiting San Antonio in recent seasons, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven. They are going to have their work cut out for them tonight though, with an injury depleted lineup facing the NBA's #2 ranked defense. The Spurs are normally very stingy when coming off a loss, and they've gone under in seven of their last 10 versus losing teams. These teams have failed to reach the total in five of the last seven meetings in this series, and the Kings have gone under in six of their last seven road games. The under is 11-4 in Sacramento's last 15 overall. I expect this game to be a blowout, with the reserves coming off the bench in the fourth quarter. It's going to be difficult for the Kings to contribute enough points to push the total over. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-19-17	Pacers v. Raptors UNDER 201.5	Top	91-116	Loss	-110	18 h 49 m	Show
This is a 10* play on IND@TOR to go UNDER the total. It's difficult not to notice that teams heading toward the post-season are starting to tighten up defensively. Both the Raptors are the Pacers are jockeying for playoff position in the Eastern Conference, and tonight's game will be meaningful for both teams. Indiana has failed to reach the total in nine of it's last 10 overall. During that span the Pacers have held opponents under 100 points eight times. The Raptors have gone under in seven of their last 10, and their offense has suffered with PG Kyle Lowry out of the lineup. These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games. They've gone under in eight of the last 10 meetings, and tonight's total is higher than it was in any of the previous eight meetings between the two teams. The Pacers have gone under in 13 of their last 16 road games. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-19-17	TCU v. Iowa -125		94-92	Loss	-125	16 h 14 m	Show
This is an 8* play on Iowa. The Hawkeyes will host TCU in the second round of the NIT Tournament, and the Horned Frogs were terrible on the road this season. TCU was just 3-8 in 11 road games, and failed to cover in five of it's last six. Iowa is a great home team, boasting a home record of 15-4. The Hawkeyes have done well against teams from outside the BIG10, they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Iowa averages 86.2 points per game on 47.6 percent shooting at home, and I don't think the Horned Frogs have the scoring prowess to match those kind of numbers. TCU has failed to cover in it's last four games against BIG10 teams, and Iowa is 10-4-1 ATS in it's last 15 home games. Take IOWA. GL, Jesse Schule
03-19-17	Michigan v. Louisville -150		73-69	Loss	-150	12 h 57 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Louisville Cardinals. Louisville won their first round matchup versus Jacksonville State by 15 points, despite the fact that the Gamecocks shot 50 percent from the field and went 10-of-19 from beyond the arc. That's encouraging for the Cardinals as they get set to face a red hot Michigan team. The Wolverines put on a three-point shooting clinic in their win over Oklahoma State in the first round. The Cardinals won the battle on the boards by a +13 margin, and committed eight fewer turnovers in their first round win. Louisville is going to need to dominate the boards and make fewer mistakes here if the Wolverines continue to shoot the way they have in recent games. That shouldn't be a problem though, as the averaged 37.3 rebounds per game this season, while the Wolverines averaged just 26.8 RPG. The Cardinals are 7-1-1 in their last nine versus teams from the BIG10. Take LOU. GL, Jesse Schule
03-19-17	Belmont v. Georgia Tech -170		57-71	Win	100	12 h 22 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Yellow Jackets are 15-4 at home this season, coming off a double digit win over the Indiana Hoosiers in the first round of the NIT Tournament. They have covered the spread in eight of their last nine home games, and have held opponents to just 61.6 points per game on 36.5 percent shooting at home. The most impressive thing about those numbers is that they played the likes of North Carolina, Notre Dame, Duke, Virginia and Florida State. Belmont has an impressive resume in it's own right, but the Bruins were not as impressive when playing outside their conference. They lost to Vanderbilt, Florida, Rhode Island and Middle Tennessee State. The Yellow Jackets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5, while Belmont have failed to cover in five of it's last seven as an underdog. Take GT. GL, Jesse Schule
03-18-17	Iowa State +1 v. Purdue	Top	76-80	Loss	-105	16 h 9 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Iowa State Cyclones. The Cyclones are peaking at the right time, and they come into this second round matchup versus Purdue as winners of 10 of their last 11. They defeated West Virginia in the BIG12 Tournament Final, scoring 80 points on 51.8 percent shooting. Purdue stumbled at the end of the year, losing twice to Michigan. The Wolverines were a hot team hitting their shots, and right now that's exactly how you would have to describe the Cyclones. Iowa State has averaged 83.2 points on 5.14 percent shooting over their last five. They won 15 games in the BIG12, while Purdue won 14 games in a much weaker BIG10. The Cyclones have won seven of eight games at neutral sites this season, and they even pulled off an upset road win at Kansas. I think they'll prove to be too much for a Purdue team that doesn't have enough fire power to keep up. Take ISU. GL, Jesse Schule
03-18-17	St. Mary's v. Arizona -180		60-69	Win	100	31 h 46 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Wildcats. There's no doubt about the fact that St. Mary's is a great team. The Gaels won 28 games before the tournament, and 26 of those wins came by double digits. That being said, they play in one of the weakest conferences in the country, and there record versus ranked opponents gives reason for concern. They played Gonzaga three times this season, and had their asses handed to them each time. They've failed to cover in five straight when playing the role of underdog, and they face a red hot Arizona team with history on it's side. The Wildcats have covered in five straight neutral site games, and they are 4-1-1 in their last six non conference games. Arizona has won the last three meetings between these two schools dating back to 2000. The Gaels had a ton of matchup problems in their losses to Gonzaga, and Arizona has the personnel to create the same issues. Take ARI. GL, Jesse Schule
03-18-17	Wisconsin v. Villanova OVER 128	Top	65-62	Loss	-115	15 h 11 m	Show
This is a 10* play on WISC@VILL to go OVER the total. The Badgers are known for playing lock down defense, but they've given up over 70 points in each of their last two games. They lost to Michigan in the Final of the BIG10 Tournament, and the Wolverines shot out the lights in that game. They hit 56.3 percent from the field and went 10-of-23 from beyond the arc. It was Wisconsin that put on a three-point shooting clinic in their win over Virginia Tech. They made 13 of 31 attempts, and Bronson Koenig led the way with 28 points, and eight made three-pointers. Villanova has also been doing it's fair share of scoring, averaging 78.8 points on 50.2 percent shooting over it's last five games. Both teams have shot the ball extremely well in their previous games at this venue (KeyBank Center) in Buffalo, and I expect to see a fair bit of scoring in Saturday's game. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-17-17	Michigan State v. Miami (FL) -1	Top	78-58	Loss	-110	120 h 39 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Miami Hurricanes. Miami comes into the tournament as losers of three of it's last four games. During that span the Hurricanes have scored an average of just 58 points, and two of the three losses came against ranked teams. While those numbers are far from impressive, it's important to remember that Miami plays in the toughest conference in the country, and still managed to win 21 games. They beat the likes of Duke, North Carolina and Virginia. Michigan State has also lost three of it's last four, despite all those games coming against unranked teams (Illinois, Maryland and Minnesota). The Spartans have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 non conference games, and seven of their last nine as an underdog. They shot just 38.2 percent from the field and 6-of-30 from beyond the arc in a loss to Minnesota in their last game, and they are likely to struggle against one of the top defensive teams in the ACC. Take MIA. GL, Jesse Schule
03-17-17	Raptors v. Pistons UNDER 200.5	Top	87-75	Win	100	11 h 52 m	Show
This is a 10* play on TOR@DET to go UNDER the total. The Raptors offense has struggled in the absence of starting PG Kyle Lowry, and they've averaged just 96 points per game over their last six. Four of those games were losses, including a 104-89 loss at Miami on Saturday. That was the last time they played on back to back nights, a situation that has seen them fail to reach the total in four straight. They've also gone under in eight of their last nine when coming off a loss. They will visit Detroit, a team that is battling for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Pistons are level on points with ninth place Miami, and only occupy the eighth spot by virtue of the tie breaker. Chicago is only a game back in 10th place, meaning that this is very much a must win for Detroit. The Pistons have gone under in four straight home games, and they are one of the top defensive teams in the Eastern Conference. I expect a defensive battle here at the Palace tonight. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-17-17	Rhode Island v. Creighton -102	Top	84-72	Loss	-102	14 h 2 m	Show
This is a 10* play on Creighton. On day 1 of the tournament, we saw two of the nation's longest winning streaks snapped when Princeton and Vermont lost in the first round. The public has been heavily invested in teams coming in riding hot streaks, and we can see that 60 percent of bettors are backing the Rams. Rhode Island comes off eight straight wins, but all against unranked teams from the A-10 Conference. The Blue Jays battle it out with the nation's Big Boys in the BIG East. Two of their last three losses came against defending champions Villanova. They scored an average of 84.3 points on 51.8 percent shooting at neutral sites this season. The Rams success in a lesser conference shouldn't be considered evidence that they can compete with the top teams in the country. They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games, and have failed to cover in four of their last five versus teams from the BIG East. Take CRE. GL, Jesse Schule
03-17-17	Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Michigan	Top	91-92	Win	100	10 h 44 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys. On day 1 of the tournament, we saw two of the nation's longest winning streaks snapped when Princeton and Vermont lost in the first round. The public has been heavily invested in teams coming in riding hot streaks, and we can see that 70 percent of bettors are backing the Wolverines here in their first round matchup versus Oklahoma State. Michigan won the BIG10 Tournament, and has won seven of it's last eight overall. They might have lost whatever momentum they might of had though, as they played five games in seven days, then had the entire week off. The Cowboys won 20 games in the regular season (the same as Michigan) in a much tougher BIG12 Conference. Most of Michigan's wins came at home, winning just three of 11 on the road. The Cowboys were 7-5 on the road, and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. Michigan didn't fare well outside the BIG10, failing to cover in five of it's last seven non-conference games. Take OKST. GL, Jesse Schule
03-16-17	VCU v. St. Mary's -4	Top	77-85	Win	100	93 h 9 m	Show
This is a play on the St. Mary's Gaels. St. Mary's only lost four games this season, and three of those losses came against the #4 ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs. Admittedly the West Coast Conference is one of the weaker leagues in the country, but the Gaels had an impressive non-conference schedule. They beat Nevada by 18 points, won at Dayton, and won by 15 points at Stanford. They rank among the nations best defensively, allowing just 56.5 points per game on 40.9 percent shooting. They will face VCU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and the Rams didn't look sharp in their most recent games. They needed overtime to beat a pretty mediocre Richmond team, and then got blown out by Rhode Island in the A-10 Final. St. Mary's lost badly to Gonzaga in the WCC Final, but they beat BYU by a whopping 30 points in their previous game. The Gaels won 28 games this year, 26 of those were decided by double digits. Take SMC. GL, Jesse Schule
03-16-17	Princeton v. Notre Dame -6.5	Top	58-60	Loss	-105	86 h 0 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Notre Dame Irish. Notre Dame finished the season strong, and pushed Duke to the limit in the ACC Championship Game Saturday. They came into that contest as winners of seven of their previous eight, beating #21 ranked Virginia and winning twice against #16 Florida State during that span. Princeton won plenty of games in the Ivy League, but they don't have any wins against ranked opponents. In fact, they haven't even played a Top 25 team this season. The Tigers non-conference schedule includes double digits losses to BYU, VCU and CAL. They even lost by eight points against A-10 bottom feeders St. Joseph's. Despite playing a far tougher schedule, the Irish scored more points, shot for a higher percentage, and were far better at the free throw line. This looks like quite a mismatch, and I don't think the Irish will have any trouble getting past the Ivy League champs. Take ND. GL, Jesse Schule
03-15-17	USC v. Providence +1	Top	75-71	Loss	-110	68 h 56 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Providence Friars. The USC Trojans lost four of their final six games of the regular season. They just barely beat Washington in the first round of the PAC12 Tournament before losing to UCLA. Providence played it's best basketball down the stretch, closing the season with six straight wins. During that span they beat Butler, Xavier, Creighton and Marquette. These teams last faced each other last March, and Providence won that game 70-69. The Friars are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as an underdog, and the Trojans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. USC may have won 24 games this year, but many of those wins came in a top heavy PAC12 Conference. Their last five wins have come against the bottom three teams in the conference (they beat WASH and WSU twice). They have failed to cover in four straight non conference games. Take PROV. GL, Jesse Schule
03-15-17	Wolves v. Celtics UNDER 211	Top	104-117	Loss	-110	17 h 32 m	Show
This is a 10* play on MIN@BOS to go UNDER the total. As the playoffs get closer, competitive teams tend to step it up defensively. That's been the case for both the Celtics and the Timberwolves of late. Boston is trying to catch the Cavs for first place in the East, while the Wolves are still 3.5 games back of the eighth place Nuggets in the West. Boston has not gone over the total for 10 straight games, while Minnesota has failed to reach the total in eight of it's last 10. This will be the second meeting between these teams this season. Boston won the first meeting 99-93 at Minnesota. The Celtics last home game was a 100-80 win over the Bulls, holding Chicago to 37.9 percent shooting. The Bulls scored just 26 points in the first half (not quarter) of that game. The under is 13-3-3 in Celtics last 19 overall. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-14-17	Indiana v. Georgia Tech +3	Top	63-75	Win	100	17 h 32 m	Show
This is a 10* play on GT. The Yellow Jackets won 15 of 19 home games during the regular season, but they still don't get any respect from the bookmakers. They will be an underdog at home in the first round of the NIT Tournament versus Indiana. The Hoosiers are the sexy pick, despite losing seven of their last 10 overall. Indiana lost eight of 10 road games during the regular season, and the Hoosiers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven versus ACC teams. The Yellow Jackets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, and they have allowed just 61 points on 38.9 percent shooting at neutral sites this season. I'll take the home team plus the points here. Take GT. GL, Jesse Schule
03-13-17	Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 204	Top	93-113	Loss	-110	31 h 21 m	Show
This is a 10* play on MIL@MEM to go UNDER the total. The Bucks come into Memphis riding a six game winning streak, and they now occupy the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. During this win streak, they've played phenomenal defense, holding opponents under 100 points in five straight games. They don't have much margin for error, with Miami sitting just a game back in the standings. The Grizzlies are likely to play with a ton of desperation here as they look to end a five game losing streak. Even though they've been brutal defensively during their losing streak, Memphis is still the 4th best defensive team in the NBA allowing just over 100 points per game. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, failing to reach the total in nine of the last 10. The one game that went over, was a 99-90 home win for Memphis. The under is 22-8-1 in Grizzlies last 31 home games. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-12-17	Cavs v. Rockets -5	Top	112-117	Push	0	14 h 53 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Houston Rockets. The Cavs ended a three game losing streak with a 116-104 win over the Magic in Orlando Saturday, and they will travel West to play the Rockets in Houston Sunday. The Cavs have been careful with LeBron James in these back to back situations this season, and that's one reason why they are 1-5 ATS in their last six in the second game in as many nights. While LeBron is likely to play tonight, his minutes could be limited, and if the game gets out of hand the starters could get yanked early. Kyle Korver is out with a foot injury, and Kevin Love is still recovering from surgery. Cleveland hasn't had a lot of success in previous trips to Houston, failing to cover in 10 of their last 11. The Rockets have 45 wins this season, two more than the Cavs. This looks like a tough spot for a Cleveland team with not a lot to prove at this point. Take HOU. GL, Jesse Schule
03-12-17	Michigan v. Wisconsin -1	Top	71-56	Loss	-115	13 h 8 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Wisconsin Badgers. The Badgers went through a rough patch at the end of the regular season, losing five of six games before they beat Minnesota 66-49 in their final home game. They've since turned things around, coming off back to back wins by a combined 38 points over Indiana and Northwestern. Both these teams will be feeling the effects of fatigue, but while Wisconsin is playing it's third game in three days, it will be four straight days for the Wolverines. Michigan also survived a plane crash, which delayed their arrive in the Nation's Capital. The lack of rest is likely to hurt the Wolverines more than the Badgers, who are stronger fundamentally. They average 34.5 rebounds per game, 5.3 more than Michigan. Wisconsin has allowed opponents to average just 58.7 points on 39.9 percent shooting while winning five of six neutral site games this season. Michigan will probably need to shoot for a high percentage to win this game, which is going to be difficult in these conditions. Since 2012, the Badgers have won seven of the last 10 meetings between the two teams. Take WISC. GL, Jesse Schule
03-11-17	Duke -3 v. Notre Dame	Top	75-69	Win	100	11 h 28 m	Show
This is 10* play on Duke. The Blue Devils faced more than their share of adversity this season, but they are starting to look like a real threat to win it all. They come into the ACC Final off back to back impressive wins against Louisville and North Carolina. The Irish have also been hot, winning eight of their last 10 overall. Their two losses came against Louisville and North Carolina, and seven of their eight wins came against teams that trail them in the standings. They lost at home to Duke by a score of 84-74 in January. Duke shot 50 percent from the field and went 10-of-17 from beyond the arc in yesterday's win over the Tar Heels. Duke has been hitting just shy of 80 percent from the charity stripe over it's last five games, almost 10 percent more than the Irish during the same span. This Blue Devils team appears to have hit it's stride, and that's a scary thought for the Irish. Take DUKE. GL, Jesse Schule
03-11-17	Wolves v. Bucks UNDER 202.5	Top	95-102	Win	100	11 h 16 m	Show
This is a 10* play on MIN@MIL to go UNDER the total. Both the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Milwaukee Bucks are making a push for the post-season. The Bucks have won five straight, and they've held the opposition to an average of 94 points in those games. Minnesota has won four of five, and has held opponents to an average of 91.6 points during that span. They come off a 103-102 home win over the Warriors last night, but they are still 2.5 games back of Denver for the final playoff spot in the West. These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games, going under in nine of the last 12. The stakes are higher here than they were in any of those previous meetings, and I expect to see both teams play solid defense. The Bucks have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven overall, and four of their last five at home. They trailed Indiana by five points at halftime last night, but only gave up 35 points to the Pacers in the second half. I expect a similar result here in tonight's game. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
03-11-17	Colorado State v. Nevada -4		71-79	Win	100	8 h 23 m	Show
This is an 8* play on Nevada. The Wolfpack were losing by 11 at halftime against Fresno State last night, but they battled back scoring a whopping 62 points in the second half. They've scored over 80 points in six straight games, and they have held opponents to just 67.6 points over their last five. They play a hot Colorado team that has won nine of it's last 10 overall, but that one loss came by double digits at Nevada. The Wolfpack owned the boards in that game, out-rebounding CSU 44-36. As good as Colorado State has played, they couldn't match Nevada's offensive firepower, and I don't think they'll be able to hang with the top team in the Mountain West here on Saturday. Take NEV. GL, Jesse Schule
03-10-17	Pacers v. Bucks -140		85-99	Win	100	16 h 9 m	Show
This is an 8* play on the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have won four straight, and they now sit just a half game back of the Bulls who own the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. They will host the Pacers tonight, and Indiana has a terrible record on the road (11-20). The Pacers have lost five of their last seven road games, most recently a 100-88 loss at Charlotte on Monday. The Bucks have won both previous meetings in this series, one at home and one at Indianapolis. The Greek Freak scored 32 points and pulled in 13 rebounds in a win over the Knicks on Wednesday, and he could have a big night against a Pacers team that is below average defensively. Milwaukee won the previous two games versus Indiana by an average margin of 17 points. The Bucks have won eight of their last 11, and should be able to hold off the Pacers at home tonight. Take MIL. GL, Jesse Schule
03-09-17	San Diego State v. Boise State -102	Top	87-68	Loss	-102	13 h 55 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Boise State Broncos. San Diego State needed overtime to beat bottom feeders UNLV in the first round of the Mountain West Tournament Wednesday, and they are actually a favorite in tonight's game against Boise State. The Broncos finished two games out of first place in the Mountain West this season, while the Aztecs were stuck in the middle of the pack. I bet against San Diego State when they played New Mexico in their final game of the regular season, and here is what I said prior to that game: "the Aztecs have really dropped off this year. They are just 3-8 on he road, and two of those wins came against bottom feeders UNLV and Utah State. They are coming off a 51-38 win over Air Force in their final home game, bu they were brutal offensively in that win. They shot just 28.8 percent from the field, and went 4-for-27 from three-point range. The Aztecs have averaged just 60.8 points on 38.2 percent shooting over their last five games. San Diego State has only covered the spread twice in 11 road games this season." The Aztecs offensive futility was on full display again last night, and I don't think they'll be able to hold off the Broncos here tonight. Take BSU. GL, Jesse Schule
03-09-17	Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 213.5	Top	92-102	Win	100	20 h 10 m	Show
This is a 10* play on SA@OKC to go UNDER the total. We all know that scoring drops dramatically in the NBA Playoffs in comparison to the regular season. When two post-season contenders meet late in the season, these games have major playoff implications. That will be the case when the Thunder host the Spurs on Thursday, looking to snap a four game losing streak. The Spurs are certainly taking this game seriously, as evidenced by the fact that they sat their starters in last night's win over Sacramento. That game went over the total, but the Spurs had gone under in seven of their previous eight games. These two teams have failed to reach the total in seven of the last 10 meetings, and of the three games that went over, two of those saw less than 213 points. The total for tonight's game is significantly higher than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings in this series. Oklahoma City lost at San Antonio by a score of 108-94 earlier this season, and the Thunder shot just 35.3 percent from the field in that game. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule