090614

Play on:  10* Utah over Fresno State

CFB NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH

Hard to believe FSU who let out 700+ yards against Southern Cal, while succumbing to a 52-13 loss, can even restructuring Utah.  The major missing piece from last year is the starting QB for the Houston Texans, Derek Carr who threw 50 touches last year for the Bulldogs.  Noticing that once the Fresno defense moved up in class (USC) they were destroyed early and often failing 35-6 at half-time. Now they must suck it up and go back on the road vs. another PAC-12 team the Utah Utes.  Remember Fresno brought back only 5 starters on offense.  Utah is a much different story.  They crushed an FCS unit Idaho State 56-14.  That does grant them exempt status vs. Fresno State, they will need to excel in all aspects of their game to win and cover.  Utah brings back 12 starters and 53 letters, so they do have depth.  Last season, despite their 5-7 mark played well against some of the conference elite, upsetting Stanford, losing by one to ASU and by seven to UCLA.  Also, they won SU at 8-5 BYU.  My reasoning is the Utes have played at a higher level against elite teams than Fresno faces on an annual basis.  Kyle Willingham is a great coach and should have his troops prepared well.  Techs show the Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS vs. the PAC-12.  Utah is 4-0 ATS in non-conference games, 4-0 ATS at home in this series.  We close with FSU 14-37-2 ATS off a SU loss.  Playing B2B games on the road vs. Southern Cal and now Utah is a killer for any football team.

090614

Play on:  4* New Mexico State+ (331) over Georgia State @ 2:00 Eastern

GSU is coming off a 0-12 season with just 8 RS hitting the field.  Last week they won a thriller over Abilene Christian 38-37 an FCS school.  AC had a 9 minute TOP advantage and still loss.  Two 4th down conversions helped GSU, along with their return units garnering field position.  But, trying to leap frog into FBS status can be a tricky transition.  LV opened GSU -3 vs. NMS, the game is down to -1, and rightly so.  Remember, the Aggies were forecasted to have an upgrade last year with Doug Martin taking over the controls as head coach.  Unfortunately, they still faltered with a 2-10 record, 3-21 L2 years overall.  Last week they did cash with 28-10 win over Cal Poly, nothing to brag about, but a win in which they controlled the line of scrimmage with their running attack.  The visiting Aggies have 13 RS, 8 on offense. The biggest asset NMS has going this season is their move to the Sun Belt Conference.  They play only one monster in 2014, and that’s LSU.  Last year they played a rough schedule vs. Texas, Minnesota, UCLA, San Diego State and Boston College.  Clearly, GSU is a major drop-off in game tension, so we should secure a solid win here on Saturday…Good Luck!

4* South Alabama over Kent State

COLLEGE LINE VALUE BEST BET

BDS

10* Illinois -4 or less over Western Kentucky

CFB LINE VALUE GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

Write-up Delayed.

090514

Play on: 3* Nevada+ over Washington State

Just like UTSA last night Nevada is part of a highly successful "returning starter" system that has been prevalent over the last 20+ years.  Overall, the game should go to the wire with the spread favoring the WOLFPACK who have 17 returning starters.

090514

10* (304) Boston College+ over Pittsburgh @ 7:00 Eastern

Eastern Edge Game of the Month

Both schools are coming off initial successes Boston College defeated UMass 30-7, while Pittsburgh thrashed Delaware 62-0.  Pittsburgh leads the series 16-13, winners of three straight.  This series has been closely contested with 8 games showing a net difference of four points or less. The schools last played in 2004. Key loss from last years team for BC is RB Williams who was one of the most productive backs in the country and a Heisman hopeful…Against UMass it appeared the BC running game did not lose a beat, however, with the Murphy, Rouse and Willis tandem productive outbursts.  In the Pittsburgh 62-0 win last week RB Conner mauled the Blue Hens for four touchdowns.  Still, the Panthers did lose key WR Boyd with a hand injury. So, once again look for Pitt to go to the running game for their overall offensive needs.  They show 1-5 SU at BC and 5-13 SU in road starts. Technically, the Panthers show 0-4 ATS off a SU win and 0-10 ATS against the ACC.  Whereas, the younger BC unit has solid numbers covering 5-of-6 at home, and 4-0 ATS at home versus a school with a winning road mark. Realize BC last lost their last two FBS home openers to Miami Fla. (2011) and Northwestern (2012), but this is a bigger game for the Eagles who are looking for RESPECT in their new haunt, the ACC.

LSU opens in Reliant Stadium on August 30th against talented Wisconsin. The Badgers second year coach Gary Anderson completed a solid 2013 with an impressive 9-4 mark. However, the Badgers did finish on a sour note losing to South Carolina 34-24 in the Capital One Bowl.  This season Wisconsin brings back 9 starters, but none on the defensive line. Overall the Badgers finished statistically #7 on defense in 2013 and solid replacements and aggressive "D."  The Tigers will have QB Jennings in the saddle first in the battle with QB Brandon Harris for the overall job. Figured pretty much from Miles who believes in the UC status.  The Tigers solid OL and RB corpse can play with most teams in the country, but the WR unit has been depleted with key recruit Malachi Dupree not making the trip.  On defense, the unit was hurt with super CB Rashard Robinson's suspension.  DC "Chief" Chavis is a class act and now has more experienced LB's to work with this season. As we mentioned the DL is an issue and a "new" unit, so we imagine the Badgers will do some damage with a more athletic quarterback.  In such a toss-up game, feel the POINTS are the VALUE.

Play on: 10 DIME ARKANSAS over Auburn

SEC MASSIVE CRUSHER

BDS

NO COMMENT

083014

5* Alabama (177) over West Virginia @ 3:30 Eastern

CFB NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK

Our opening play in college football goes on the road to Morgantown West Virginia as the Crimson Tide take on the Mounties.  West Virginia brings back 13 starters to the key 22.  Alabama has 12 starters back, but are loaded on both sides of the ball.  They finished the season 0-2 SU with losses to Auburn and Oklahoma.  Think “Little Nicky” is pissed off? West Va. finished 4-8 SU last season, losing their last three games to Texas, Kansas and Iowa State.  Granted the Mounties have more experience this year, but QB Clint Trickett is coming off shoulder problems.  Defensively, they have just one talented starter coming back on the “D” line.  Saturday the Crimson Tide plays with Nick Saban being considered the most talented coach in College Football.  Alabama is 46-7 SU in his last L4 seasons, but the Tide is coming off a 45-31 loss to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, a game in which the chalk gave away 4 turnovers.  Former Alabama QB AJ McCarron committed two turnovers helping OU to 14 points. Think “Little Nicky” is pissed off? Against the spread there are some conflicting numbers as we show Alabama 8-0 ATS -28 or less in non-conference (note the aforementioned line reference), but 0-5 ATS off B2B SU losses. Also, we show ‘Bama 7-0 ATS in the first lined game of the year.  Finally, teams losing their bowl games SU when laying 7 or more are hitting 60% ATS in game #1. WVU is killing their backers going 8-15 ATS L2 years and 3-13 ATS at home against a unit off a double-digit SU defeat….ALABAMA!

10* Virginia+ over UCLA

LINE VALUE GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

10 DIME NFLX GOY

...One of my key teams projected to have a surprising winning season. I believe greatly in the coaching aspect of the game...One of my fav coaches is Bill O'Brien who has outstanding experience, taking Penn State out of their depression with a solid season in 2003.  We not only have game covered with outstanding techs slanted heavily to Houston, but catch SF not playing many big money earners, if any at all....Houston

3* Saskatchewan+

CFL SUNDAY KEY

BDS

No Comment

10* Dallas+ over Miami

There is no doubt the Pokes will come to play this evening.  Now that QB Romo being back in the saddle helping the Dallas offense improve greatly against the Fish defense. We know the Cowboys show at 0-2 SU, so they will play with need.  Miami a solid -4 yesterday in Vegas has been tagged down to -3 1/2, the same goes for the off-shore outlets.  With HC Philbin 3-8 SU in NFLX, and not making preseason a priority, I will take a huge ticket and a TOP PLAY on Dallas...Good Luck.

5* BALTIMORE (929) +1-1/2 Runs over the Cubs

Let's look at the overall scenario here as we forecast a BEST BET on the O's in this day timer in Chicago.  First off, the Birds are smoking hot clocking the ALE in record fashion...winning 4 straight and 7-of-10.  Further with RHP Gausman, the ex-LSU product, they have a legit #2 starter in the rotation carrying a super 7-4 mark with 3.70 ERA. The O's have won his last 3-of-4 outings. In his last 5 starts the Bayou hurler has allowed 3 runs or less. On the road the youngster has been awesome with 2.91 ERA with a 3-1 record.  He has super support too, as Baltimore has been RED HOT since 6/30 booking a 31-13 run .700 winning percentage. The Orioles are a PERFECT 5-0 L5 times out vs. .<500 unit and 9-1 in game #1 of a series. With Gausman off 4 days of rest we catch another PERFECT angle, a 6-0 win cycle with the Birds. The Orioles have won 4 straight overall on the road. As for Chicago, they did carry the SF series, but I have little faith they can overtake Baltimore here with their stellar first six in the lineup.  Granted RHP Arrieta (6-4, 2.61), the former Oriole, will have a book on some of the hitters, but doubt he can handle the buzz Baltimore is on at this time. Recall the Cubs are on a 1-5 streak as a dog and 5-11 vs. RHP...ORIOLES ROLL!

10* Houston over Atlanta

NFLX GAME OF THE WEEK

The line here opened at -2 and already there is movement for this Saturday night event. First off, this is a more important game for O'Brien and the Texans.  At Penn State O'Brien handled a very difficult challenge with the program in flux.  He has even a more coarse scenario down in Houston with the Texans coming off a 32-0 loss to Arizona last week.  Add in their 2013 numbers and it's clear how important this situation is to the head coach especially.  Fortunately, the Texans have three injured players returning to the lineup with Cushing, Johnson and Foster.  Atlanta shows off a SU & ATS win last week 16-10.  Both QB Ryan and Tannehill took one possession and scored. The remainder of game saw Atlanta score just 2 field goals. We expect a similar offensive mindset against Houston.  Taking into consideration the way Houston lost last week, being shutout. You can fully expect a solid rebound effort on their home field...Houston 23 Atlanta 17

4* Detroit (Price only) over Tornoto (Buehrle) @ 1:05 EST

3-0 SWEEP on Saturday, TOP PLAYS 19-5 overall this summer. TRIPLE CROWN PACKAGES 3-0 with a 9-0 perfect run. Sunday I am using Price over Buehrle.  First the Tigers are coming off a 3-2 loss to the Blue Jays as RHP Stroman bounced back nicely.  So, Detroit will be recharged behind Price to win here. LHP Price has incredible historic numbers with a monster 15-2 (2.31) record vs. Toronto. He throws against LHP Buehrle (11-8, 3.27) who is 1-7 with a 4.73 ERA vs. the Tigers. Price who has given up 3 earned in each of his last three outings will benefit with umpire Bill Miller calling balls and strikes, as the Blue Jays are 0-7 when Miller tugs down the mask behind the plate. We finish it off with Buehrle/Jays 1-6 vs. a >.500 unit...PRICE (Detroit)

5* Oakland -0.5 over Minnesota

First off, these two are playing in different dimensions. The Twins come into Oakland 51-62, while the A's show 70-44, a +37 win/loss differential favoring the A's.  Oakland uses LHP Kasmir who is 12-4 this season with a 2+ ERA; vs Gibson of Minnesota who has been inconsistent. With Kasmir the A's are 8-0 vs. a unit who scored 2 or less runs in the last game. Minnesota has lost 7 straight in Oakland, while the A's in 2013-2014 have won every game in the series by at least 2 runs. All considered favor Oakland this evening..Good Luck!

Play On: 10* Montreal+ 5 or 5 1/2 over Edmonton

The powerful Eskimos come to Montreal this evening assuming they will extend their record to 5-1 after defeating the current 1-4 Alouettes.  Currently, 4-1 in their division only in third place the Eskimos are looking to extend their success. However, the 1-4 Alouettes "must win" and clearly have the EMOTIONAL ANGLE in their corner.  No doubt Edmonton has +115 advantage in point differential, and possesses the #1 pass-rush defense. We know the Als have a stoggy offense combining just 10 points in their last two games.  Looking just at the numbers the Eskimos have a huge edge, but road chalks playing towards the middle of the season have a tendency to assume victory come up short as a norm.  Our EMOTIONAL ANGLE is all Montreal who play their best defensive game to date.

10* Atlanta+ 9 nothing less over Phoenix

Being 23-4 puts you on a different level in the WNBA.  But, lines makers

under valuing the visiting Dream.  The Mercury accrue the number based

on winning 9-of-11, while Atlanta 17-10 appears so-so despite their

first place status in the East. We are thrilled the Dream is 5-1 ATS vs. the

West this season.  So, what appears to be, somewhat, of a late down

spot for the home team, TAKE THE POINTS!

10* KC w/Duffy only over Arizona

First the second place Royals must continue to be successful on this road trip.

Arizona does play at home, however, tonight but that should not deter vastly

better unit.  Remember Zona is -12 games at home with KC carrying a profit

with their difficult road schedule this season.  KC is 10-1 with Duffy booked

as a chalk, while the D'backs are 1-6 with Miley in this underdog price range.

Good Luck.

10* Cleveland -1-1/2 over Cincinnati

MLB RUNS LINE LATE MOVE

BDS

The traveling Reds are 0-9 in Cleveland, and despite their 7-4 win over Miami yesterday they appear to be out classed by the better team.  Further, with RHP Kluber on the hill the Indians are a red hot 6-1 IL games and 25-9 overall in IL games. Lay the RL and go with confidence.

5* Pittsburgh -1-1/2 runs over Arizona

The only reason why this is not a TOP PLAY is obvious, the current line and its momentum up. The Pirates to continue to roll and now RHP Cahill who has been ragged of late.  Add in Goldschmidt being on the injury list, look for a Pirates pounding...6-3!

3* Cleveland +1-1/2 over Texas and Darvish

Indians a monster 23-4 vs. <.400 units! After winning back-to-back games in the series doubt the Rangers will execute effectively in this get away game. Remember, Rangers are 1-10 in series. Plus umpire Eddings is calling balls and strikes accruing a PERFECT 5-0 mark favoring the home unit. Good Luck, huge card posting throughout the morning.

TOP PLAYS 9-2 RUN 82% AND ROLLING...

Brad Diamond is a 30+ year Sports Handicapper winner of the National Wise Guys Championship on two occasions with numerous documented football awards from the Sports-Watch Monitor during his successful career.  Whether you’ve followed Brad on the web, read his daily newspaper column or enjoyed his radio commentary, now is the time to experience what a true veteran of this industry can offer you.  Sign-in and win this football and baseball season…Good Luck!

10*  Toronto+ over Montreal

CFL VALUE ADDED TOP PLAY

Good Luck,

Brad

Argo's looking to reshuffle offensive line before traveling

to Montreal for their critical.  Both clubs are lacking on

offense, so already the points look more ready to make

a contribution in the win column.  If the visitor can

control the tempo and reduces turnovers, a SU

win would be no surprise...Good Luck!

5* Atlanta - 1-1/2 over Philadelphia

Last time out against Philly LHP Wood threw a beautiful 8 innings of work only to lose 1-0. Look for a major bounce-back here as the Phillies allow Kendrick the duties on the hill.  The Phillies have won 5/6 on the road, but this being a critical game for the Braves expect a huge win...5-2.

4* Cincinnati + 1-1/2 runs over Yankees

Don't let the money line fool you, the Reds are play in this bounce-back scenario Saturday afternoon in the Bronx.  First off, hurler McCarthy (3-10, 4.80) of NY has pitched decently the last three times out, but he is still getting adjusted with the Yankees.  And, now because of the NY win last night the Wise Guys' from yesterday are striking again with Bronx guys.  Still, I have great respect for RHP Simon (12-3, 2.70) who has put up solid numbers thus far.  In fact, with Simon vs. winning units the Reds are 10-2. To paint a clearer picture the hurler in his L28 innings has allowed only 5 earned runs.  Now the Reds are a PERFECT situation coming off a loss with 4 straight wins. NY is 2-5 at home vs. RHP and a 1-5 in Saturday editions. Cincinnati+

4* Chicago +1 1/2 runs Game #1 vs. LAA

Please note, we will return later with analysis of our night selections.

2* Oakland -1 1/2 runs over Miami

The Fish caught up last night, but the depth of the solid Oakland was the major difference in the final score. No doubt Miami has solid numbers as an underdog, but the A's are far superior team despite the site.  Oakland shows Saturday 27-11 in IL games, while the Fish are 5-11 at home against IL units with a winning overall mark.

Oakland continues to play the best ball in the American League, and is now playing off a day of rest (traveling) to face the fatigue Marlins who finished in late evening up in Philadelphia. Miami throws DeScalafani who is coming off another down outing. Oakland's RHP Chavez has more going for him this season, including a 2.71 ERA and a 6-4 record. Further, the A's are sensational 30-7 in Interleague play in this price range...Oakland -1 1/2 runs.