10* Texas State+ over St. Peter's

CBI TOURNEY GAME OF THE MONTH...BDS

Under valued State shows defensive edge (62.1) since they are at home.  Granted SPC has some structural edges and trending numbers but, love this Sun Belt unit that will play their hearts out on defense throughout.  TS is 7-1 ATS L8 times out.  Good Luck.

18-6 in College Hoops March Madness Tourney Action

65-41 run and 49-31 in Basketball overall  

....more notes later

4* Wisconsin over Florida

NCAA Reverse Angle...BDS 75% Run in March Madness

5* KANSAS over Purdue 

NCAA TOURNEY GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

Jayhawks defeated the Boilers 63-60 back in Lawrence in 2012.  Different set of circumstances now and a more complex floor relationship with Kansas the perimeter edge, the boarding unit.  KU has been on fire shooting 52.2% the last five games, along with a 40.9% arc edge.   In addition, the Jayhawks 20-1 SU in night action to support their 4-0 ATS record vs. .600+ units and a 6-1 ATS streak as an NCAA chalk.  Good Luck.

4* OKC over Philadelphia 

The Sixers still being aggressive despite current status, and have been covering of late on the road.  But can't recommend knowing OKC is just 2-1/2 games behind Utah for 4th place in the Western Conference.  The Thunder shows 6-0-1 ATS vs. the Atlantic &11-3 ATS vs. road.Unit with .400 or under losing record.  With OKC 5-2 ATS vs. Philly at home and the home team 5-1 ATS in the series, go with the Thunder.

5* Weber State over A&M C. C. @ 8:00 Eastern

We used A&M last week in a perfect now they show at home in the American Bank Center facing Weber State.  Conference differentials allow us about a 2-point advantage built in for traveling Weber State who lost a heart-breaker in their conference title game.  WS is the more effective three ballers and is ranked #29 in FG% this season.  A key here in probably a foul-ridden game is foul shooting, and WS is hitting 77.6% the last five games.   With A&M 1-6 ATS off a SU win and Weber 4-1 ATS L5 games, we're on the visitor, Weber State.

3* Southern California+ (725) over Baylor @ 7:45 Eastern

Xavier along with the Trojans are my surprise teams in the NCAA tourney.  Xavier crushed unexpecting Florida State (Fat City) last night and now we have Baylor ready to go down here.  The only reason for this inflated number is the SOS differential between these two entities.  Again, the PAC-12 is getting no respect.  Baylor is coming off of New Mexico State and that's no way to prepare for the Trojans who will challenge you physically, and especially on the boards.  TAKE THE POINTS!

4* Oakland (733) over Richmond @ 7:30 Eastern

We understand Hayes will play today despite the mouth injury, the small forward is a gamer no surprise.  No the kids from Oakland (25-8) travel to Virginia in the NIT to play the Spiders.  Richmond shows 21-12 on the season after upsetting lazy 'Bama in the first round. That win earned this home date but, Oakland has talent and plays after Clemson as an underdog out of the ACC.  Remember, the Spider are coming off three brutal games vs. GW, VCU and Alabama. Although the visitor is garnering travel miles, they appear to be the more physical unit.  Oakland over the last five games have been highly effective on the boards, while the Spiders have allowed 48% field goal numbers.  So, if Oakland gets hot and the Spiders show flat shooting spots, I love our chances for a SU win.  Technically, Oakland is 5-0 road dog in this price range and 20-5-1 ATS overall as an underdog.  Seemingly their higher level identity, if you will.   Richmond strangely is 1-4 ATS L5 on the floor and come 17-36-4 ATS long-term consistently vs. non-conference units with over a >.600 mark on the road. Good Luck.

4* OREGON over Rhode Island

No doubt RIU has come on strong this season finishing third in the A-10, and current winners of 9 straight games.  Oregon shows finished an incredible 30-5, winners of 9-of-10.  The Ducks have the defensive POY in the PAC-12 in Jordan Bell who could be the difference in this basketball game.  Over the last five games each is similar statistically, but SOS goes clearly to Oregon who plays in the under valued Pac-12.  Technically, Rhode Island has looked good vs. .>600 units going 4-0 ATS but, on a neutral they show 4-17-2 ATS as an underdog and 3-14-2 ATS in this price range.  Finally, with RIU just 6-18 ATS in Sunday editions it's OREGON!

4* Iowa (H) -2 over TCU @ 5:00 Eastern

NIT BEST BET....

Difficult for TCU to beat a #1 seed, especially on their home floor.  They have made a nice run but, not in this spot.  They have bad history vs. the Big-10 with a 0-4 ATS mark and producing a 1-5 ATS record in their last six road games.   And, 3-8 ATS when booked as an underdog L11. Iowa is a super 5-0 ATS non-conference and 10-4-1 ATS in Ames.  Good Luck.

031917

5* (H) Georgia Tech (742) over Belmont @ 12:00

Site: Thriller Dome 8,600 capacity

NIT GAME OF THE WEEK

After SWEEPING yesterday we look to challenge the early start in the historic NIT.  An intense battle takes place when Belmont visits Tech on Sunday.  The Bruins are coming off an incredible showing against SEC Georgia dropping 14 three-point shots.  The outing gives proof Belmont is a legit offensive unit currently ranked 40th in FG%.  Over the last five games they have shot 46.8% which is why the line has moved down overnight in Vegas.  Overall, though Tech has been a more effective defensive unit (66.9) this season and the Engineers play a higher rated schedule within the more difficult ACC.  Tech shows off defeating Indiana, holding the Hoosiers to 38% shooting.  Overall they are catching the Bruins off a spectacular shooting performance so, we expect somewhat of a letdown.  Further Belmont for some odd reason does not play that well in Sunday editions going 0-6 ATS.  We close with GT a solid 8-1 ATS at home and 36-17-2 ATS against >.600 plus units.  Play it late as there will be Belmont money this morning.  Good Luck.

031817

4* Maryland Baltimore County (542) over St. Francis (PA) @ 2:00 Eastern

CIT TOURNEY BEST BET MOVE…BDS

Talent wise the UMBC has the edge on offense but, defensively SFPA garners the better numbers.  Still the game is being played on the home court of UMBC down in Catonsville where they show 11-4 SU this season.  We remind you SFPA is 9-10 SU on the road.   UMBC brings a run and shoot philosophy, the visitor more deliberate style.  As a matter of comparison this season the home unit has defeated Duquesne 81-72, SFPA lost to the Dukes 89-75.  Further, UMBC has defeated UMASS, James Madison, Hartford and Mount St. Mary’s.  They have lost to Towson at home (District foe) and Richmond on the road in very close games.  So, as the theory goes the SOS goes to UMBC who plays with roughly +2-point advantage in scheduling and at least +2 on their home floor.   The “Rack” is a difficult place to play for units who have never visited.  UMBC is 5-1 ATS non-conference and 6-1 ATS L7 (5-0 ATS).  If the Rack kids have a decent shooting performance they should win by 10.  Good Luck.  

3* West Va. (518) over Notre Dame

Not afraid to lay the short price with the Mounties considering ND came up short in their last three losses against big time foes in UNC, Duke and Louisville.  West Va. is not in that class although they bring enough depth to outlast the Irish.  The Mounties are 14-4 SU in day action a solid indicator in their scheduling.  In addition, they show 6-2 ATS as a NCAA chalk, while ND is 4-11 ATS in the NCAA.  Also, WVU is shooting almost 40% from three the last five games which is critical against plotting ND.  Although, the Mounties have had problems covering of late, favor their depth here, since the Irish show 2-5 ATS L7 as an underdog.  Good Luck.

031817

4* Ole Miss+ (533) over Syracuse @ 11:00 AM Eastern

Always difficult going against the Orange up in the Carrier Dome, however, gutty Rebels just might pull the upset in this dangerous spot.   Over the last five games Syracuse has been shooting lights out 48.2% from field, 42.5% from three and 85.5% from the foul line.  Where they have fallen short has been in rebounding the basketball so, if they lose their shooting edge Ole Miss can take control of the boards on both ends of the floor.  Mississippi comes into action off a SU & ATS win as an underdog(?) against Monmouth who played without Seaborn.  The Rebels do show 8-3 SU in day action, while home standing Syracuse plays 7-7 SU in that venue.  Believe the tenacious abilities of the Rebels will disallow any blowout so, we’re backing their 5-1 ATS mark vs. the ACC with a corresponding 4-0 ATS in non-conference play.  Syracuse oddly is 15-36-2 ATS in Saturday editions, while the Rebels have experienced super results of late at 13-3-1 ATS…TAKE THE POINTS!

4* DAYTON+ (832) over Wichita State @ 7:10 Eastern

The Flyers are very capable of pulling the upset tonight.  However, we will need the points to produce a profit center here.   Remember, WSU has a big revenge game with Kentucky next on their agenda.  For Dayton this is a "get back" game as they were destroyed 70-51 by Kentucky last year as a #10 seed.   They have covered 19 of 29 games this season, although show off back-to-back losses to GW and Davidson. We know the Shockers are very talented but, will they be at the top of their game tonight with a 15 game win streak getting 'em a little overconfident?  I like our chances with Dayton who will need huge numbers from Cooke, Pollard and Smith the DD scorers.  Also, Williams and Davis must step up their game bringing more consistency to the floor.  The Flyers come in 5-1 ATS vs. .600 plus teams and 14-6 ATS L20 times out.  Also, WSU is a mid-major power but feel their 6-14 ATS mark on neutral floors will allow the Flyers to take cash.

3* Jacksonville+ over Louisville

CBB Appreciation Day Timer...BDS

We will return 5:45 Eastern with more.

031717

4* Oregon (842) over Iona @ 2:00 Eastern

Difficult going against helter-skelter Gaels have shown a tendency to give noted D1 programs a major go.  They did receive the automatic from the MAAC after beating Siena 87-86 in OT. On the other hand, Oregon lost the PAC-12 Title game to Arizona 83-80 showing as a #3 seed, Iona #14 in the brackets.  The Ducks are #48 in scoring offense effectiveness and improved defense the last five games allowing only 67.4 points per outing.   Iona (22-12) brings a solid mark to the floor and no letdown type mentality.  However, they do show 0-4 ATS in NCAA’s and 1-5 ATS after a SU win.   Further, Oregon comes in a beautiful 8-1 ATS L9 when booked as a double-digit chalk and 5-2 ATS in the NCAA’s.   When laying -13 or higher they have a legend of 5-1 ATS.  No doubt the Ducks will miss Boucher but, still must back this frustrated unit to win and cover.  Good Luck. 

4* Seton Hall (823) over Arkansas

Arkansas might have the better guard play but, the Pirates show off losing to quite possibly the best unit in the country (Villanova) 55-53.  Seton Hall improved their defense down the stretch holding the opposition to 70 points per game and that included Nova.  Prior to the Nova loss, the Pirates had a super 5 game winning streak.  The show here 40-19 ATS as an underdog in this price range.  Further, they are 4-0 ATS vs. .600+ units and 5-0 ATS off a SU loss.  Can't trust the Hogs, especially if their shots from deep fail, as they come into this afternoon 29.9% from the arc last 5 times out.   Remember the Hogs are 1-7 ATS in the NCAA round and 2-9 ATS in neutral buildings.  In closing, Arkansas has faltered vs. Big East clubs of late going 2-8 ATS.  Good Luck.

Note, we will return later this evening around 5:45 Eastern for our last updates

10* Nevada+ (729) over Iowa State @ 9:55 Eastern

Okay, let's talk about the amazing Cyclones first as they enter this encounter winners of three straight sweeping their conference tourney championship including, a same season double revenge win over West Virginia.  Their average winning margin was 12 points per game in their tourney.   What's amazing, they brought back only two starters from last year and have a 23-10 mark.  This is their sixth consecutive NCAA tourney.  However, with that said, we remind the Cyclone followers 5th seeds when facing the 12th seed show 10-10 SU.  Granted ISU is hot but, check the pedal because here comes the Wolfpack out of the competitive MWC and their solid 28-6 SU record after sweeping their tourney and possessing a 9 game win streak.  They are also 9-1 ATS.  In addition, NU has carved out a super 20-4-2 ATS versus unit with a  >.500 mark. Remember, they brought back 4 starters from the CBI championship team finishing with a 24-14 record.  At neutral sites Nevada shows 7-1 SU, and 16-3 SU in night games.  They can score!  Averaging 82.4 points a game L5, while holding the opposition to 70.2 points per outing.  So, they are quite capable of winning the whole game against Iowa State.  Finally, State is 1-4 ATS in non-conference games and 1-4 ATS vs. the MWC. Nevada comes in 5-1 ATS within this underdog price range.  If Iowa State has an off night from the arc the Wolfpack will win this game. TAKE THE POINTS!  

4* St. Peter's over Albany

Better conference for the Peacocks but, Albany is talented if their head is in the game.  They are at the SEFCU center but this is a unit that lost another heart stopper NCAA Vermont.  SPC comes in a PERFECT 6-0 ATS on the road vs. .600+ unit, while Albany shows 0-4 ATS against non-conference foes.  Good Luck.

6-0 ATS CBB March Madness Run Before Saturday

5* East Tennessee State+ over Florida

CBB Tourney Late Money Move...BDS

5* UNCW +7-1/2 (721) over Virginia

NCAA UPSET ALERT...BDS

Sorry, no analysis serious computer issues, will try agai

031517

3* Texas A&M C. C.+ over Georgia State @ 8:00 Eastern

Cashed our appreciation move last time out, and have won three straight days in College Basketball.  Tonight, we go to Texas for the selection of the A&M Corpus Christi (20-11) unit who has shown great promise this season falling short, however, in the conference tourney.  They finished the season on an 11-2 SU run and bring a 13-1 SU mark overall at home.   Georgia State (20-12) lost their tourney championship hopes when New Orleans beat them again in OT, 68-65.  So, they could be a little flat early tonight and traveling versus a lesser foe from the conference and power rating standpoint (we hope so) might do the trick.  There has been only one series meeting recently and that was in 2010 when the Panthers crushed A&M 72-42.  You can bet the alumni heads will be letting the coach and kids know that they were embarrassed.  A&M is 6-2-1 ATS ff an ATS loss, play in revenge off a loss.  GSU shows 18-37 ATS against .600+ units and 5-15-1 ATS off a double-digit loss.  Finally, the Panthers are bringing a horrid 2-9 ATS record tonight after participating in three consecutive home games indicates a letdown is on-deck. TAKE THE POINTS!

031517

4* Detroit (610) over Utah @ 7:30 Eastern

Last night the Pistons were smashed by an emotional Cleveland club led by LBJ as he went off helping to produce an easy 128-96 win.  Now Detroit (33-34) is in a difficult back-to-back set with Utah coming to town.   The Pistons are, however, 9-2 ATS against the Northwest of late.   Utah (42-25) on the other hand travels after an incredible win over LAC, 114-108.   The Jazz have won 7-of-10 SU and have covered 5 straight vs. the Central.  Not discounting the Jazz talent and SOS advantages, and their 9-2 ATS mark in Detroit, we feel they could show up with not much emotion.  Remember, the Jazz have Cleveland next on the road, so I see this as a super situational edge for Detroit who should come out on fire.   With the Pistons 9-2 ATS against the Northwest and the dog 4-1 ATS in this series, TAKE THE POINTS.

4* Loyola Maryland+ (645) over George Mason

CBB Tourney Reverse Angle...BDS

031417

4* Canisius+ 4-1/2 (581) over Samford @ 7:30 Eastern

CBB Tourney Smash Mouth Winner…BDS

After winning back-to-back days in tourney action we look to provide our client with another college upset alert which have been on target.   In the CIT tonight with Canisius out of the MAAC and Samford from the SoCon doing battle at the Pete Hanna Center.   The Griffs show 18-15 SU and Samford comes in a little better with a 19-15 mark.  Canisius boards after a season producing almost 79 points per game, hitting 34% from three and a decent foul shooting account of 73%.  On the other hand, Samford too is scoring 79 points per game, 40% from three and 74% from the foul line.  Obviously, the two are very similar in output.  Critical here is the Griffs rebounding from a late season negative streak facing a club who actually surprised before East Tennessee State won the conference tourney.   Granted the Bulldogs have shown outstanding marks in non-conference games vs. the spread, feel the Griffs are clearly flying under the radar losing 4-of-5 down stretch.  No doubt Canisius likes score from the outside and they are overdue for a high-volume game.  Technically, they show 4-0 ATS on the road versus the home team with a .600 winning mark.  In addition, the Griffs are 10-1 ATS as a road underdog.  The Bulldogs bring a 1-6 ATS mark in this chalk price range and a 5-13 ATS record when at home.  TAKE THE POINTS!

4* Princeton -7 not higher, over Yale

The Eli have a tough bargain this afternoon at the Penn Palestra trying to win back-to-back tourney games no less, this one against the Tigers.   Princeton has won 18 straight, has defeated Yale the last three times out and covered by an average of 13 points per game.   The chalk in the series is a perfect 6-0 ATS L6.  The key question here is will the Tigers be completely physically ready after come from behind to tie Penn yesterday, and then garner their first lead OT going on to win then, in the extra session?   Yale won as the underdog SU against hated Harvard on a neutral floor but, doubt they will have much of a following at this neutral site (Palestra).  In addition, Princeton might have generated an "up" after a game that Penn let slip away in extras.  Finally, in their last game vs. Yale, Princeton shot 59% in a 71-52 win.  If the Tigers score the three with any consistency today, they win and cover.

(773) 4* Princeton over Pennsylvania @ 1:30 Eastern

Our angle is that the Tigers are 13 points better on defense than the Quakers the last five games on the schedule which is critical and indicative of this ATS winner.  We note this encounter is a home game for Penn since the site is the Palestra.  However, the road unit has covered 7-of-10 in the series.  In addition, the Tigers show 6-3 ATS as a single-digit chalk and 24-8 ATS after holding their last opponent to under 50 points.   With Princeton 4-0 ATS versus losing basketball teams and Pennsylvania 1-7 ATS as a dog in this price range, go Princeton!

10* New Mexico+ over Fresno State

CBB Reverse Angle of the Year....BDS

Fresno comes in with the more effective defense, rebounding unit but, lacks the overall scoring ability of the Lobos.  Also, the Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in conference, while winning 5 straight coming into action. And, New Mexico is 1-8 ATS at neutral sites.  So, why I ask is Fresno only a -1-1/2 or -2 point chalk?   First off this is a revenge game for NMU and the Bulldogs are a horrid 3-13 ATS when booked as the favorite the last 16 tries.  Also, oddly Fresno is 22-47 ATS in Thursday calls.  From the fundamental standpoint over the last five games the Lobos have been more effective from the foul line, critical against a defensively oriented team as Fresno State.  UPSET!

030817

5* Bucknell (582) over Lehigh @ 7:30 Eastern

College Tourney Blowout Alert….BDS

Lehigh (20-11) has played well down the stretch winning six straight games to advance in tourney action.  Opposing Bucknell (582) goes live this time after winning 5 straight.   In the last five games (current form) the Engineers have averaged almost 84 points, while Bucknell has been knocking down 82 points per session.  Where these two differ is on defense as Lehigh is giving back 70.6 points per game over the last five outing, while Bucknell has surrendered only 64.4 points per.  The Bisons have stingy around the arc allowing only 22.6% accuracy in their recent chart.  Key in the game for Bucknell is stopping Tim Kempton (31, 13 rpg.) from going on an extended shooting streak. He’s been a major in LU getting this far.  From the emotional stand point the Bisons have the edge as they hit the hardwood on an 0-3 downer (Triple Revenge) versus Lehigh.  Good Luck. 

5* OHIO STATE (564) over Rutgers @ 7:00 Eastern

Difficult using State laying this much wood but, can't trust 14-17 Rutgers in a key spot based on recent experience.   Overall the Buckeyes (#49) have played a more difficult schedule than Rutgers (#83) and should be primed for a huge outing.   Ohio State (17-14) has a more effective offense over the last five games (73.8 vs. 61.0) so, if the Scarlet Knight fall behind they will have a difficult road to bounce back, especially considering they are a poor foul shooting team...62.2% this season.  Granted the Buckeyes lost for forward Keita Bates-Diop (9.7) earlier, however, should have the more productive offense and the emotional edge.  Rutgers is 16-35 ATS and 0-4 SU versus the Buckeyes.  In addition, they finished poorly 2-8 SU L10.  Good Luck.

3*  LSU+ (577) over Mississippi State

Difficult to access State's mental after just beating the Tigers at home 88-76 on March 4th.  They now have covered 4-of-5 in the series, the dog remains consistent covering at a 8-3-1 clip.  We all know State has more talent coming with a 15-15 SU (16-11 ATS) record vs. LSUs 10-20 mark.  LSU comes in the #13 seed with a 2-16 SU run against SEC foes.  However, most likely this is the last game for Tigers coach Johnny Jones as the principals have stated he will be fired after the season concludes. LSU is in double revenge tonight.  I believe the kids will play with great emotion here and keep this a buzzer beater type final.  The more talented Bulldogs show 3-7 ATS in this price range when favored and 1-5 ATS off an SEC home (LSU) game.  With the back-to-back series sessions feel LSU will accrue advantages, including the Jones issue.  Good Luck.

030417

4* Harvard (621) over Pennsylvania @ 7:00 Eastern

In these back-to-back Ivy league (this is a tournament) games it’s always difficult for the unit playing away after a SU loss (Harvard) when laying points.  However, the talent edge here is to the Crimson (18-8) over Pennsylvania (12-14).  Yesterday Penn was dumped by Dartmouth, while Harvard was edged out by Princeton again.  Prior to the Tigers, the Crimson had won 6 straight.  In the last meeting between these two Harvard won 69-59.   The Crimson lead the series 7-of-9 SU, 6-1 ATS.  The favorite in the series is on a 7-0 ATS streak.   Harvard shows 4-0 ATS off a SU loss, 9-1 ATS Saturday’s and 14-2-1 ATS in the Ivies.   Over their last nine games the Crimson have are carrying a +14.6 net point advantage.   Over the last five games Harvard is shooting almost 50% from the field and 39.4% from three.  We’ll go Harvard tonight knowing they have gone 4-1 ATS L5 in the second of back-to-back Ivy League games.

4* Davidson+ (605) over Rhode Island @ 6:00 Eastern

Already this season URI has handled Davidson 70-59, and show off a big win away over nicked up St. Joseph's.  The Rams are in the midst of a nice four game winning streak, 3-1 ATS.  Despite the facts, URI goes up against a pesky Wildcat club who just beat the Bonnies last week and has accrued a nice rest period (2/28).  Therefore, we expect the Rams to under play their opposition today knowing they "can handle the matchup" with a few bigger games down the road in the tourney.  The key in the game is the ability of Davidson to hit the arc numbers needed to disturb the improved Rams defense (17.9% effectiveness vs. three ballers) over the last five games.  With Davidson shooting almost 45% in their most recent games, believe they can stay inside the posted number.   Remember, URI is a perfect 0-5 ATS after allowing 50 or less in their last game...Letdown! 

5* Harvard+ (841) over Princeton @ 5:00 Eastern

Last time out Princeton (19-6) hung on to defeat Harvard (18-7) 57-56, and we see a similar type encounter this time around down in New Jersey.  In the overall series Harvard has won 7-of-10 SU.

As far as current form, the Tigers defense has been lights out holding the opponents to 53.4 points per game in the last five Ivy League games.  However, Princeton finished the season with four straight road games, and despite the time off could be a little wasted this afternoon.  Harvard usually plays tough perimeter defense as documented by their three’s defense which allowed just 24.2% effectiveness over the last five games.  On the other hand, Harvard has been scoring well close to 80 points per game recently. 

Technically speaking, the Crimson are 17-4-2 ATS L23 times out and show at 13-2-1 ATS in the Ivies.   Princeton has been strong at home in the series covering 6-of-8, however, the dog in the series has taken 4-of-5.  Finally, with the Tigers 1-6 ATS after three consecutive road games, we’ll back the Crimson in another nail bitter.  Good Luck.  

030217

4* Rider (770) over Manhattan @ 10:00 Eastern

Rider has been a splendid late season surprise for their fans who would love to see a MAAC Championship banner in the gym.  The Broncos come winners of three straight versus the Iona, Manhattan and the “Q” by an average of 15.3 points per game.  In their last meeting with Manhattan shot the lights out 93-82.  In the series, Manhattan is 6-4 ATS L10.   However, the real difference in these units comes over the last five game where the Broncos defense has improved allowing just 66 points per.  Technically, the Broncos are a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 80 or more in their last game, and 8-3 ATS against defenses that forgive 77+ points per.  Manhattan is 6-12 ATS after a conference game and 1-4 ATS versus the MAAC.  

030217

4* Canisius (768) over Marist @ 7:30 Eastern

One of the huge questions tonight is whether guard Parker (12.6) will be playing for the Red Foxes.  Considering the overall situation, we would still recommend a play on the Griffs.   Canisius has owned this series ATS with marvelous 23-8-1 mark.   The have won three-of-four SU and ATS.  The last meeting back on February 19th Marist won 76-74 shooting 59.5% from the field, off the charts marksmanship.  Key for Canisius will be disallowing three balls from the arc by Marist.  Over the last five regular season games, the Red Foxes have shot 40.2% from three, but they have suffered on defense allowing almost 79 points per game.   Technically Canisius is 7-3 ATS at neutral sites, Marist 9-19 ATS.  Finally, with the Griffs in revenge, we’ll lay the points on Thursday night.  Good Luck.

030217

5* Holy Cross+ (789) over Navy

Here is 15-16 Cross facing 15-15 Navy in a Patriot league quarterfinal battle.   Navy of late has been inconsistent, while Holy Cross has improved defensively down the stretch.  Navy this season is 0-2 SU at neutral sites.  The last meeting saw Navy at home defeating Holy Cross 60-47 back in late January.  We note, that loss for the Cross came after a gut wrenching defeat (65-62) to Loyola-Maryland.   Holy Cross has won 7-of-10 in the series.   They have been well down the stretch allowing only 56.8 points per game.   Navy has been staggering lately as it shows in their defense (72.2) which has been given up just 65.4 points per game overall.  Also, the Middies has been struggling shooting 36.8% from the field, 25.5% from three and only 61.5% from the foul line the last five games.   They are 2-8 ATS last ten games.  Holy Cross comes in 7-3 ATS of late, 6-1 ATS in the Patriot league and 7-2 ATS off a SU loss.

4* Niagara (765) over Quinnipac @ 5:00 Eastern

MAAC Tournament

TRIPLE REVENGE situation for the Purples who may not have the scoring ability of the "Q" but, does possess sufficient aggressiveness to surprise here.  These two last met on February 4th, the "Q" winning 89-81.  The staff at Niagara has already they need to keep this encounter in the 70's to support a win in tourney action.   Remember, the "Q" is 2-8 ATS after allowing 90+ points in their last game.  Good Luck.

4* Texas Tech (558) over Texas @ 9:00 Eastern

Tech has got to be one of the best 17-win (17-12) teams in the country, considering their SOS and difficult close losses this season.  In fact, they lost a heartbreaker to UT back in February 62-58 on the road.  However, this time around Tech is at home which leaves Texas in a bad spot.  The Red Raiders are 15-3 SU this season at home.  Texas plays into their current 0-8 SU mark in conference.  As a final note, Texas committed 15 turnovers in the loss to Kansas Saturday, duplicating same would be a disaster for this struggling visitor.  With Texas 0-4-1 ATS as a dog, and Tech 5-2 ATS of late we'll back the home unit.  Good Luck.

030117

4* Dayton (548) over VCU @ 8:00 Eastern

With a win Dayton (23-5) will clinch first place and the appropriate position come the March A-10 conference tourney.  It’s the last home game for the 14-2 (A-10) Flyers , always a big night for the kids and alumni.  VCU shows 13-3 (A-10) trying to tie the Flyers for conference honors.   In their early meeting in late January the Rams killed the Flyers on the boards with a 39-22 edge winning 73-68.  VCU shot 2-15 from three allowing Dayton to stay in the game.  Last time out Rhode Island defeated VCU 69-59, that loss came after nine straight wins.  The Rams have had two major winning streaks with an eight game run in January, included. But, VCU is 1-4 ATS when they score in the sixties.  Also, they are 2-5 ATS on the road and 0-4 ATS on Wednesday.  If Dayton is to be successful this evening they will need to play one of their best defensive games.  Over the last five games they have held opponents to 72.2 points per from the field.  The Flyers are 18-8 ATS this season and bring a 4-1 ATS record vs. >.600 units, and a solid 10-4 ATS record as a favorite.  Dayton has covered 4-of-5 in the A-10.  In their five most recent games Dayton has been solid defensively at home giving up only 61.8 points per.  Take the Flyers to cash tonight.  Good Luck.

030117

4* Sacred Heart+ (577) over Mount St. Mary’s @ 7:00 Eastern

This should be somewhat of an overlay considering the spread opened at -8-1/2 at the Westgate, -9 and some off-shore outlets.  No matter, this is a triple revenge situation for Sacred Heart versus home standing Mount Saint Mary’s (16-15) is coming off a 77-62 success and a wild game over St. Francis-NY, prior they had lost to LIU on the road 62-58.  The Mount is 8-4 SU at home this season but, 0-3 SU on Wednesday’s.  Overall, they have won 7-of-the-last 10 SU but, come is 3-7 ATS L10.  Although they average just 67.8 points per game this season, they have improved over the last five outings 72.5 points per.  On the season, they are scoring just 67.8 points a game.    Defensively, Mount St. Mary’s has improved by three points a game the last five, 65.8 points.  Whereas, Sacred Heart can score and is averaging 77.2 points per game the last five out.  In addition, have competitive numbers 40.3% from three, and a critical 76.8% from the foul line. From the emotional standpoint, and despite the site, in this quarterfinal game in the NEC they just be overlooking an aggressive unit considering they won both conference games this season.  TAKE THE POINTS! 

4* Boston over Detroit

The 37-21 Celtics visit 26-32 Detroit in what should be a real war.   Boston is one of the best road units in the NBA this season against the spread going a solid 18-10-2.  In addition, they create real matchup problems for the Pistons.  Go with the visitor laying the short price.

4* SPC (851) over Canisius

A unique sort of revenge game statistically fraught with historical contradictions.  Exactly, in their last meeting this early February Canisius (17-13) held off SPC (17-12) on the road 72-70 shooting an incredible 54.9% from the field.  The Griffs were lax in the lanes and gave away too many open shots.  Now the Peacocks visit looking to return the favor carrying a solid 5 game win streak but, versus bad teams in conference.  The Griffs have lost back to back games coming in and must rebound to assure solid post season positioning.  However, in Vegas they are 6-14 ATS at home, and obviously the Peacocks have the emotional edge.  This late in the season, as we saw yesterday, current form is critical and that factor favors SPC the last five games scoring at 71.2 points per game allowing 49.8 points, while shooting 51%, 46.7% from three and 75% foul shooting.  I remind you the Griffs have come up short the last five games surrendering 77.6 points.  With SPC off a solid Friday edition and going 7-0 ATS on the road, lay the small number. 

5* LaSalle +1 (817) over UMASS

A-10 GAME OF THE MONTH...BDS

Rough spot for LaSalle traveling after shooting downer at home vs. Rams.  And that was after an emotional blowout win over banged up St. Joe on the same floor.  The M's show after three straight losses both SU & ATS losing by an average of 16 points with a 96-66 loss to Duquesne thrown in (?).  But, they have one of the best ATS marks on Sunday 13-2-1 L16.  LaSalle is finally getting accumulated to guard Powell being back in the lineup and he should have a big game.  In their initial meeting February 1st the Explorers won big at home 88-77 with Bob Johnson having monster game (28 points with 11 DRs).  No doubt UMass has a more effective defense than LaSalle.  Still, over the last five games (current form) they have allowed 80.8 points per.  With the line minimal we look for hidden edges inside the floor game and LaSalle has a major advantage in foul shooting and three balling the L5 games.  Although, this is revenge game for UMass can't back 1-9 ATS unit laying any points, especially considering the 3-12-2 ATS as home chalk.  LaSalle should be ready after hangover loss (St.Joe) vs. Rams when they shot just 36% overall.  Good Luck.

LATE MONEY MOVE....grab the line with +2-1/2 or higher.

5* Towson (537)+ over William & Mary @ 2:00

CAA GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

Normally would not go against the Bill and Mary at home in a revenge situation in conference but, Towson (19-11) does have more overall talent and is trying to win a tourney championship for the first time, currently seeded #3 in CAA rounds next week.  The Tigers dropped a rough go last time to conference leading UNCW (25-5) on their floor.  Towson had won 6 straight prior, including a win over William and Mary 82-80.  Where Towson has improved the last five games is on defense allowing 68.6 points per game.  The Tribe (15-13) shows with a 12-1 SU mark at home.   In addition, the average win margin the last five home games is around 20 points per but, seemingly this is a different team than in prior years.  They were the tourney runner-up the last two seasons, however, they will see a 4th, 5th or 6th seed this time around.   Over their last six games they've covered only two.  Where they falter is on defense as documented the last five times on the floor with 82.6% points per game allowed.   Remember too, they were just crushed by Hofstra 96-82...mood? Technically, the dog has covered 3 straight in the series with the road unit 6-2 ATS of late.  Would normally give credence to the Tribe, however, still can't trust their defensive fall off this season.  Good Luck.

10* Hofstra (527) over James Madison @ 12:00 Eastern

TRIPLE REVENGE....Visiting Pride on a mission after losing three straight to JMU, and in fact, two OT losses in 2016 were simply heart breakers for the NY kids.  Hofstra (14-16) has covered 8-of-11 down in Virginia, while going 1-5 ATS in the series of late.   Still, must go against JMU off their emotional road win last time out over Drexel up in Philly.  Where, again, the Dragons committed too many ball handling errors down the stretch allowing the Dukes to win and cover.  Remember Madison (9-21) is just 1-6 ATS on Saturday, while Hofstra has covered on the road of late 3-1-1 ATS to be exact.   

Special note, since the JMU 4 game win streak early this season they have gone on a real downer 4-10 SU.  And in the earlier game with Hofstra the Dukes shot (for them) a solid 52.2% from the field. Can't see any effectiveness from the arc today, considering Hofstra has been allowing opponents just 26.7% from three the last five games, which should help the Hofstra break.  Finally, if JMU shows as a conference underdog in this encounter (with line movement), Hofstra becomes a stronger situation considering JMU becomes a home dog that won SU last time out, and went UNDER the total (old conference system).

02/25/17

4* Bucknell (722) over Navy @ 12:00 Eastern

The Bisons (22-8) in their last home game and final regular season conference game face Navy (15-14) who they defeated earlier 59-55.  However, Bucknell did not play well in that encounter after a very emotional loss to Princeton 72-70, which still must have the school’s professors pissed off.  Navy visits off three straight losses by an average of 12.6 points, two of the teams were horrid Army and American.  As we know the Middies are grinders, play hard defense, position by position.  They have held the opposition to 64.8 points per game, but have failed lately and maybe a real tired bunch for this Patriot League encounter.  Bucknell plays in first place conference wide and will have the #1 seed in the post season tournament not playing until March 2nd, so you can expect a valid effort here.  Remember the Bisons are an outstanding shooting team ranked #22 in FG%, and come in off a 5 game run of 49%, while shooting 44.7% from three.  Believe Navy will develop trouble trying to reposition the Bisons deep threats, causing foul problems and slowed tempo.  The last time on this floor Bucknell handled Navy 88-58 back in December 2015.  In closing, the Middies are just 2-7 ATS L9 and 2-5 ATS vs. home unit with a >.600 mark.   Bucknell has covered 4 straight, 4-1 in conference and 6-2-1 ATS in Saturday editions.  Good Luck.

022417

5* Princeton (865) over Columbia @ 7:00 Eastern

Not afraid to lay inflated road number with defensive smart Tigers (17-6) in this late season Ivy clash.   The Tigers sit nicely in the playoff realm Ivy style with a 10-0 league record, inconsistent defensive Lions show 4-6 and have NO shot of making the post season.  In their initial game this season down in New Jersey, Columbia (10-13) dropped a heart breaker 71-69 with the recent series battles being fairly close.  So, you can understand why the line is just -7 or -7-1/2 this morning.  The last test had Princeton -14, and they did not cover on the Strip.   Now, in current form must support Princeton who has been in shutdown mode defensively over the last five games holding the opposition to 54.2 points per game, shooting overall almost 48% from the field and 44.4% from the arc, while being deadly on the charity stripe with an incredible 83.3% mark.  Princeton does not waste offensive positions, just ask Harvard and Yale.  Technically, the visitor is 14-2 ATS in this series with Princeton on an incredible 7-0 ATS run at Columbia.  Although, we are always searching for the letdown theory application, feel Columbia’s 7-20 ATS mark as a home dog illustrates a whole different story that can be applied.

022317

4* James Madison (527) over Drexel @ 7:00 Eastern

What makes this situation more playable is the injury bug that has hit Drexel.  They could be minus two on the bench in this battle up in Philly.   The Dragons are 2-8 SU L10 and 0-3 SU and ATS most recently.  They do possess a winning record of 15-12 but, are just shooting 62.7% since early February.  In their last five games the foul shooting has killed them, 62% and the arc probability shows 35%.   James Madison (8-21) who has suffered through some tough losses this season travels looking to sweep the in season series after defeating Drexel in December at home.  Remember the Dukes have won 6 straight in the series and were favored in the last three games, winning and covering.  Now Madison is inked as road dog with the chalk and home team carrying solid ATS results but, this is Drexel!

4* Rider (879) +9-1/2 not less over Iona

Granted Iona (18-10) has the more talent and wiped out the Broncos on the road in January 95-76 but, now you're paying for the public perception if you're going chalk.  The favorite in the series has covered 5-of-7 but, at home in this price range, the Gaels are a horrid 5-13-1 ATS.  Both Rider (14-14) and Iona over their last five games have completely forgotten the word "defense."   Each is allowing in the 80's, but I like the fact the Broncos are shooting more effectively from the charity stripe of late considering the inflated number.  Also, Rider comes in 10-4 ATS in Sunday edition's.

021917

4* Canisius (873) over Marist @ 2:00 Eastern

Difficult number laying it on the road but, 6-22 Marist has too many defensive deficits to offset scoring abilities of the Griffs.  Canisius (17-11) has won and covered three straight in this series by an average of 22.3 points per game.   And now Marist shows with a defense that has been non-existent the last five games allowing 52% from the field.  Remember, Canisius in their current streak has been hot from three shooting a nice 41.2% from the arc.  Playing on foreign boards can be a real downer in the month of February when facing revenge by the opposition but, like our chances with the Griffs who are 23-7-1 ATS in the series, while shooting lights out.  Good Luck.

4* William & Mary (619) over Delaware

Not afraid to test the Blue Hens off their heart stopping win over Drexel by one on this court.  William & Mary (14-12) who has been inconsistent lately (especially) on defense comes in off the JMU loss.  But, WM should have the emotional edge off that loss playing with a 1-3 SU and ATS record L4 times on the hardwood.  Offensively, in their last five games, they are averaging a solid 83.2 points per game 51% from the field and 38.4% from three.   Critical here, the Blue Hens defense from the arc recently has been allowing around 43% effectiveness.  Overall, in this series Delaware has a commanding edge ATS at 17-6 L23 battle.  However, the visitor WM has won and covered the last three by an average margin of 25 points.  WM is 6-2 ATS in the CAA and 25-7-2 ATS off a SU loss showing consistency bouncing back.  Would expect the line to drop this evening to -6 or -6-1/2 with some public interest on Delaware, but can't pass up a chance to use an offensive-minded unit off a loss who has shown recent dominance in this series.

021817

10* Buffalo (562) over Miami Ohio @ 3:30 Eastern

When of the great trends so far in February has been same season revenge with a unit that has been playing off the charts L5 times on the hardwood.  Mid-American’s Buffalo has been rolling scoring 89.8 points per game with a 50.2% FG, and almost 40% from the arc.  Their offensive rebound numbers have improved too, 40.4% the last five.  Buffalo (14-12) has won 5 straight games overall.  Miami Ohio (10-16) at this point is not consistent enough to stay with the home standing unit.  Over the last six games in the series the ATS winner has switched successes, MO won and covered back in January by just one point at home. The spread series has recently belonged to MO but, can’t expect any response good enough to stay within this hefty price tag.   Remember over the L10 games, 0-10 SU and 3-10 SU in conference.  Buffalo is 4-0 ATS as chalk, 6-1 in this price range.  Overall the red hot unit is 15-5-1 ATS in the Mid-American Conference.

021717

4* Pennsylvania (859) over Brown @ 8:00 Eastern

Penn (9-12) travels to Rhode Island Friday knowing they have back-to-back revenge games with Brown and Yale this weekend.  Quakers come in off an improved run of back-to-back wins defeating Cornell and Columbia. Just as a support note, the Bears lost to Columbia recently.   Brown (11-13) has been hurt this season by their horrid defense which has allowed 80.4 points per game last five times out. The Bears have not held an Ivy unit to under 70 points.   Brown is just 2-8 SU L10 losing three straight to Dartmouth, Harvard and Columbia.  Theoretically, this is a bigger game for Penn knowing the Bears have won 6-of-7 in the series (7-0 ATS).  The road team (Penn) here is 11-4 ATS in the long-time series.  With the Quakers improving offensively, and considering the short price we’ll back their 6-2 ATS record in the price range of 0-5-6.5, and their nice 5-2 ATS record on the road vs. .600 plus home unit.

021717

4* Canisius (867) over Rider @ 7:00 Eastern

The Griffs (16-11) show up for a revenge situation in New Jersey against (14-13) Rider who won their initial meeting (01/30/17) 72-66 shooting 50% from the field.   However, can’t expect the #175th rated scoring offense to sweep the series against a visitor who can go on torrid long-distance runs from the field.  Canisius is averaging almost 82 points per game when traveling.   Granted Rider has the slightly better defense, but don’t trust a unit in almost in a pick situation that shoots 66.9% from the charity line.  The Broncos have covered 4-of-5 in the series but, Canisius is a super hot 9-1 ATS on the road versus a unit with a winning home mark.   And, they have a solid 9-3 ATS record overall on the road.

4* Phoenix -3-1/2 not higher over LA

The Lakers (19-38) are going through a rough part of their schedule losing a one-point decision last night at home to SAC, and having to get back on the road again.  For this handicapper, a letdown spot is at hand.   LA is 1-7 ATS road vs. a

021517

4* Butler (564) over St. John’s @ 8:30 Eastern

CBB Blowout Alert…BDS

It would be easy to look at the Jonnies (12-14) recent 5-0 ATS run and on point 5-1 ATS record as a dog in this price range, but refer laying the points here.  Critical, the St. John’s defense “observing” defense leaves much to be desired whether home or away.   The did defeat Butler on in NY last December 76-73, but was smashed in the rebound outing (February) 89-56.  In the series, Butler has covered back-to-back games when booked as a double-digit chalk.  Now the Johnnies catch the Bulldogs off a heart-breaking loss, and seemingly a rough spot.   Remember, Butler comes in 8-1 ATS off a SU loss, and 10-4 ATS at home.   Also, the Butler defense (67.8) should be once again the difference in the game.  With a revenge game for the Bulldogs, coming off a SU loss, and at home, lay the points.  Good Luck.

021517

5* Temple (537) over East Carolina @ 7:00 Eastern

Noting, we are forecasting Owls (14-12) knowing, East Carolina guard Tyson (11.9) remains questionable (1:45 Eastern) for the game.  The Pirates (11-14) are at home in a same season revenge conference situation.   However, they have not played well of late and appear to have too many on court deficiencies to take advantage of traveling Temple. The Owls have perked recently playing well against talented Memphis.  And, bring an early January win 81-62 over ECU up in Philly to the court tonight.  The series has seen and exchange of wins of late.  Still, recent fundamentals point to the Owls who have far the superior offense in the last five games at 70.4 vs. ECUs 59.2.  Granted the Pirates have played slightly better defensively in the time span.  However, we must remember latter in the season in the second game of a home and away series, defenses seem to improve for the respective units.  Critical, the Pirates have a major deficit (29.9% vs. 35.6% for Temple) shooting from deep the last five times out, and their overall 64.2% foul shooting ineptness will hurt against a class coach like Fran Dunphy of Temple.  With the Owls having an outside shot at some tournament, and possessing an edge in strength of schedule must back their 5-1 ATS mark as chalk in this favorite price range.   In closing, Temple has covered 4-of-5 in the series.  Good Luck.

4* Ole Miss over LSU

Rough spot for the Tigers this evening, on the road versus triple revenge-minded Rebels.  We note the line evaluation has changed to OLE MISS -11-/2 or -12 tonight from LSU -10 last January.  That 21-1/2 point swing is an eye opener but, must critique current reality Tigers defense that is apathetic as they come.  Good Luck.

021417

4* Canisius+ (756) over Iona @ 7:00 Eastern

Talk about a revenge situation?   Well, the Griffs are looking to reverse their lackluster performance in January against the Gaels, who crushed the visitor 98-75 shooting an amazing 61%.  Iona (17-9) has won 4 straight in the series going 3-1 ATS.  In the last four series outings Iona has been favored -5, -12-1/2, -11-1/2, and -1.  The line here opened at -1-1/2 and is down to -1 overnight.  Canisius is 8-2 as an underdog, while the Gaels show 0-6 ATS off an ATS win.  Believe you will see a very close game throughout with Iona not shooting anywhere near 61% this time.  The key for Canisius is improve their second chance shots and rebounding.   Considering they will have the emotional edge, I’ll back their 7-2 ATS mark at home in the series, especially with the dog 15-7-1 ATS in its history.  TAKE ANY POINTS!

Don't miss our SEC special and late money moves!

021317

5* Monmouth (545) over Siena @ 7:00 Eastern

CBB Eastern Edge…BDS

At first glance this appears to be an upset spot for home standing Siena (12-14).  After all, the Hawks have won 11 straight and show off a scare in a road challenge versus Manhattan last week.  In their last series battle Monmouth (21-5) out-scored Siena 93-87 back in February 2016.  In the overall series, the Hawks have won 4 straight, 3-1 ATS in Vegas.  Critical from the current reality standpoint  Siena’s defense continues fading allowing 77.6 points per game last five times on the court, causing much doubt in the upset category.  Interesting the Saints come in off back-to-back road wins over Marist and Iona running their streak to 4-0 (4-0 ATS) L4 away.  Of late, Siena is 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS at home.  Doubt aspiring Hawks will letdown as they continue to play well ATS on the road against home units with a .600 SU mark.  Like our chances with the more talented unit, Monmouth.  Good Luck.

021117

4* Northeastern (640) over Hofstra @ 2:00 Eastern

The Pride played their hearts out versus the Tigers the other night and with this being another road game feel their emotional level will be zapped in the second-half.  Northeastern (14-11) is very similar to Hofstra talent wise, but they do have a personnel edge overall.   Important, the Huskies are ranked #47 in FG% nationally, and like to work for a good shot.  With Hofstra 3-7 SU L10, that might work in frustrating the defensive approach, while accumulating unnecessary fouls.   Technically, in the series the Pride has the edge, but NE is 5-1 ATS L6 at home and as a home favorite.   Further, they show 7-2 ATS off a SU win and appear to be in more positive mindset for this campus battle.  Good Luck.

021017

5* Monmouth (883) over Manhattan @ 9:00 Eastern

MAAC GAME OF THE WEEK

The Jaspers have fallen on hard times this season leading with a 9-16 SU record coming into the war with the Hawks.   They are just 4-10 in conference, while running with a 2-5 SU mark of late.  Manhattan just survived against weak Marist by one, which is a glaring indicator they should be in trouble against the 20-5 Monmouth unit, despite the site.   Remember, the Hawks are a solid 12-2 SU in the MAAC and have won 10 straight games.  So, the question here is, can they cover the number as a road chalk?  They are playing improved ball last five times out with a 83.0/67.0 point differential, opposing Manhattan has slipped badly offensively with a 64.0/75.0 differential in the same time span.  The Jaspers have not been defensing the perimeter well, and they are getting edged on the boards.  So, if they don’t shoot well, they have no shot!  Manhattan is 0-5 ATS in this underdog price range, with the visiting Hawks a super 9-3 ATS in this chalk price area.  Also, the road unit is 5-2 ATS in the series, so with Monmouth coming off a big win over pesky Rider, feel the Hawks can cover the depreciating number on the road.  Good Luck. 

021017

5* Brown+ (880) over Harvard @ 8:00 Eastern

Ivy League Game of the Week…BDS

Trusting the Crimson is suffering from the bad weather, travel plans and little bit of overconfidence, we look for an ATS win by the home standing Bears.  Okay, Harvard (12-7) has won 14 straight in the series.  However, this appears to be a solid letdown spot for the Crimson after falling 57-56 to Princeton last time out, while having Yale up Saturday on the road.  Brown 11-11 (2-4 Ivies) has been dogged this season by defensive lapses.  They are coming off a rough three game road swing versus Columbia, Cornell and Yale going 1-2 SU and ATS.  Brown is 8-2 SU at home (7-2 ATS) and show with a perfect 4-0 ATS record after three consecutive road games.  So, with the underdog 5-1 ATS in the series, and Brown 5-1 ATS vs. Harvard, TAKE THE POINTS!

020917

4* SMU (751) over Temple @ 9:00 Eastern

Conference Game of the Day…BDS

Very difficult going against coach Dunphy and the Owls up in Philly, especially since the ‘Stangs won game #1 of the series back in January 79-65.   In that game, Temple was out rebounded 42-25.   Currently SMU is 20-4 SU, 12-3-1 ATS in the AAC.   They are a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road vs. a winning home unit.  They have won 16-of-17 SU, and possess one of the better defenses in the country (3rd scoring defense).  They are ranked #25 and show off a blowout win over Tulsa.  They score at a 73.5% clip, holding the opposition to 58.6 points on average.  Temple is 13-11 SU thus far playing improved ball of late.  But, their 3-7-2 ATS in the AAC and 1-3-1 ATS vs. a club with a winning road mark clouds the view.   They do average 8.9 three pointers per game (SMU 8.1).  Overall, however, they are the #225 ranked team in scoring offense.   Normally, would look at the Owls home court, revenge situation and Dunph to keep this close.  The only negative angle facing SMU, will they be primed for this encounter with Cincinnati up next?  I am taking a ticket with Larry Brown and the ‘Stangs knowing they are 9-0 ATS vs. >.500 units and 5-0-1 ATS on the road.  Finally, Temple has not been successful in this role lately with a 1-5-1 ATS mark as an underdog.

020917

4* Hofstra+ (721) over Towson @ 7:00 Eastern

Would like this a whole lot better at +5-1/2, the opener at some Vegas stores.  However, still give great respect for the underdog in this series with the number @ 4-0-1 ATS coming into Thursday night.  Realize Hofstra (12-13) has issues on defense, and they are on the road but, the series has been wacky for a long-time.  The Pride has sufficient scoring ability in the starting five but, must be careful not to exhaust their rotation in a running game with the Tigers who’s bench out pointed the latter 50-4 in their recent series win (86-80) at the Mack.  Look for the visitor to slow the pace here.  No doubt Towson (15-10) has the edge in fundamentals here, unfortunately they carry a 5-14 ATS as a favorite in this price range.  In addition, the Tigers are just 3-7 ATS at home and that’s bringing +5 games in the win column overall?  They have won 5 straight at home and show off a monster win over William & Mary in a game they trailed by 17 at half, 82-80.  My question is will Towson be ready savoring that win a little too much allowing Hofstra to sneak inside the number?   With the Pride 5-1 ATS at Towson, TAKE THE POINTS and I believe we’ll see a lower scoring game than the lines makers have projected via a total of 153.  Good Luck.

020817

4* Providence (551) +5-1/2 over Seton Hall @ 8:30 Eastern

Granted the Friars (14-8) are just 2-6 on the road of late but, should give them an edge is their rest advantage in the middle of the season.   After a week of rest, they visit Seton Hall (14-10) who looks to gain revenge for the earlier loss to Providence (65-61).  The Pirates show off a OT win at Georgetown and will play with confidence.  Sanogo is still out a key reserve for Seton Hall.  SH is 8-1 SU at home averaging 79.7 points per game.   I don’t expect this encounter to get out of the 60’s.  One key issue is the Pirates foul shooting at home where they are hitting 57.7%, 61.2% overall this season.  Providence is a pesky unit and will be on the uptick this evening after that nice rest.  Remember, in this favorite price range SH is just 0-3-1 ATS (0.5/6-1/2).  On the other hand, the Friars bring a solid 8-1 ATS mark as a road underdog in this price area and a nice 5-1 ATS record against the Big East.  They are a perfect 5-0 ATS against SU winning records.  TAKE THE POINTS.

020817

4* Detroit -6-1/2 (508) over LA Lakers

At face value one might assert the Lakers should be in a strong position to pull an upset on Wednesday night in Detroit.  After all, the line seems inflated and LA comes in off a crushing win at New York after losing back-to-back road tests against talented Boston and Washington.  My guess is they maybe a little flat, and when you consider their 1-5 ATS record with a day’s rest other factors seem to make sense.  Remember, LA is just 18-36 SU this season having lost back-to-back games SU in this series to Detroit.  Further, the Lakers have made recent lineup changes which still has the public and their followers second guessing.  Detroit 24-28 is 14-11 ATS L25 at home, and come with a 4-0 ATS record with just one day off.   They are a perfect 4-0 ATS after their current opponent allows 100+ points in their last game.  The Pistons are 3-1 SU L4 times out with wins over Philadelphia, Minnesota and New Orleans all losing teams.  Despite the Lakers having the recent edge in SOS feel the Pistons recent up-tick in confidence should go a long way in procuring the ATS money.  Good Luck.

020717

4* Kentucky (710) over LSU @ 7:00 Eastern

The talent differential is no denying, while the ‘Cats have won 8-of-10 SU in the series by an average of 9.1 points per game.  The largest chalk was the Wildcats -19 back in 2011 when they gashed the Tigers 82-44.   Kentucky has covered 8-of-10 ATS on their home floor, with the Tigers suffering away in current reality with a 1-5 ATS record garnering an overall record of 9-13 SU.  Although LSU has done well in the series of late, the home team has been money in the bank covering 4 straight.  Good Luck.