POWER RATING VALUE....Colts+

5* Houston (169) over Texas Tech @ 4:15 Eastern

Yes, the 45-18 victory against Arizona was impressive even against a mistake prone defense.  Here the Cougars travel face Big-12 rival Texas Tech possessing an 18-12-1 SU record in the all-time series. In 2017 the Red Raiders defeated Houston 27-24, but the Cougars coughed up five turnovers to hand TTU the win.  Houston had over 500+ yards of offense and still lost.  This is game is critical for the Cougars on a national with this being a Power 5 Conference foe.  They are 13-6 ATS against non-conference teams and 15-6 ATS during September. Texas Tech defeated Lamar(?), enough said about that! So, I wonder if the Red Raiders will come to play with an overconfident psyche? Coach is still playing around with the quarterback situation, so we can’t sit around awaiting his choice.  No matter, the offensive unit is balanced and talented, and should receive some support this week from the walking wounded.

 Texas Tech defeated Lamar(?) last week 77-0, enough said about that!  But, already coach Kingsbury has sent mixed signals as to who will start at quarterback, having three capable talents.  As always, the Red Raiders have a solid balanced offensive unit, and it is one of the reasons Tech has won 8 straight non-conference games at home.  In week #1 Ole Miss beat Texas Tech 47-27 doing it with big plays.  In fact, the Rebels scored five touchdowns on drives of 5 plays or less.  Tech is 3-7 ATS L10 games and 1-6 ATS versus a unit with a >.500 road mark.  Lay the small price with Houston as they gain revenge for their give loss last season at home.  Good Luck.

Note, we taking this early because of the line value already tampered with by the wise guys.  We still want the side, but must have the aforementioned number.  Good Luck.

10* TOLEDO+ over Miami Florida

First off, the 'Canes are a road favorite in this situation, and are expected to win and cover by must experts and public opinion.  So, we jumped into our power rating system looking at double-digit underdogs that are under valued by the recent results, etc. Granted the 'Canes may win SU on the road, but the number is all Toledo.  This is our power rating mismatch of the year.  Good Luck.

5* Syracuse+ over Florida State

CFB EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE WEEK

When you look at these two offensively you can't help think that the Sems are going in the wrong direction.  FSU is ranked #113 in 3rd conversions, so no matter how strong their defense is they will consistently give back the football.  QB Francois has had problems in down and distance situations.  The Orange have a wild and wily offense led by QB Dungey.  Under the dome up in New York brings a solid setting for a high scoring game with Syracuse's inconsistent defense.  Trends, give us Florida State @ 0-7-2 ATS in conference, while 'Cuse comes 4-0 ATS L4 games in September, 5-1 ATS after rushing for 200+ yards.  The home team in the series is 5-2 ATS.  

Interesting situation becomes playable when you have a non-Saturday game with a hefty points in a FBS battle.  State has sufficient offense to guarantee a few scores, while the Tigers maybe looking [ast this encounter at the road ahead. State shows 22-9 ATS in roadies, while Memphis is 2-5 ATS in non-conference affairs.  Good Luck.

4* Cincinnati+ (102) over Baltimore

The Ravens crushed the Bills last week easily as the stat sheet was a little off the true reality.  Baltimore was granted ideal field position on numerous occasions which help make it look much easier than it seemed.  However, game #1 teams winning by four touches or more and then going on the road next week seemingly have trouble responding in a similar fashion.  Also, Flacco only one time in his road outings has been productive offensively has the offense scored more than 10 points.  And, last week the Ravens "D" was helped greatly by the inconsistency of the Bills offensive game plan. The Bengals show at home off a real nice win, and have the running game to balance their offense against the aggressive Ravens. No doubt we will once again see the Cincinnati flanks chase Flacco accruing turnovers and poor field position.  Remember this is a must win season for the coaching staff after a 7-9 in 2017.  But, the Bengals did cover 9-of-16 games last year, and took home the cash last week laying -1.  From our recollections and numbers Cincinnati appears to be the right side tonight.  Forgetting trends and systems, the fundamentals go to the underdog.  GL.

3* Charlotte+ over ODU @ 4:00 Eastern

Both units come in banged up, while the day and time change has to be of some effect on the outcome.  Charlotte brings back 18 starters with two quarterbacks still battling out for the lead.  ODU shows 16 starters back without their starter from last season, and more importantly they lost key RB Lawry.  Charlotte has lost 45-9 to Appalachian State, but stopped Division II Fordham 34-10, whereas the Monarchs have lost BB games to Liberty (52-10) and FIU (28-20).  Last season, ODU at home beat Charlotte 6-0, as the visitor could not continue drives lacking a solid passing game.  The world be expecting the Monarchs coming off BB downers to respond in kind this afternoon.  However, Charlotte is more experienced this year and is playing with more tenaciousness than ODU.  Our early season power ratings have Charlotte at a plus 2-1/2 in value vs. ODU.  Good Luck with our Appreciation Thursday edition.

4*  New York+ over Detroit

Normally, would not suggest in week #1 to back a rookie quarterback on the road, however, the Jets (

4* LA -1-1/2 Runs over Cincinnati

Another must win scenario for the Dodgers who are 1/2 game behind the Rockies in the West, and in 2nd place.  Lefty Wood starts who in the last 12 innings has allowed just 1 earned run and 9 hits.  Reed (0-4, 9.45 ERA L4) is taking the hill for the Reds showing 13 innings of work with 13 hits and 7 earned runs.  Last time out he was shelled by the Pirates 9 hits, 6 earned runs in six innings.   Two of his last three at home he was bombed.   Add in the fact that Cincinnati is 1-5 L6 at home against lefties and 0-14 with Reed L14 starts, you have a side with LA needing to win.  When you review this from the run line standpoint, the Reds are 9-24 inside that stat.  LA comes in 33-23 overall against LHP and 6-1 with Wood on the road.  The Dodgers show 13-3 L16 in road games vs.

NO COMMENT, TRAVELING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DAY

NO COMMENT, TRAVELING FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY DAY

4* Western Illinois over Illini

FCS over FBS with value as Illini looks to be a frustrated unit again this season.  Illinois was 2-10 last year and almost blew it in week #1 against Kent State in a 31-24 win.  Actually, Kent had a comfortable lead at half, but the Illini came back later for the win.  What most don't realize is that 5 players were suspended before the game, as coach Smith was highly dismayed.  Despite playing at home this week, they catch a fired up WIU unit looking to make this FBS struggle.

One of the media darlings this year in preseason (b/c of the coach) Coastal Carolina was defeated by the West last year 52-10. And, they are loaded once again.  Talented QB Sean McGuire brings back his 2,852 yards of offense making him the key bell weather for the team, along with a solid running game.  Also, the early pubs have Illinois down near the bottom of the Big Ten and start without an experienced quarterback.  In their last meeting the Illini during 2015 ran away from the West 44-0 but we expect this year's battle to be a highlight film. If new head coach Jared Elliot has calmed down and is able to focus for this instate rivalry, an outright win would be no surprise.  Good Luck.

3:30 Eastern

4* South Carolina+ (348) over Georgia

09/08 The second of three home games for the Gamecocks with no less the Georgia Bulldogs who went to the Championship game last year only to lose 26-23 versus Alabama. The 2017 South Carolina battle with Georgia saw the 'Dawgs winning 24-10 at home, their ninth straight win. Georgia took a 14-7 lead at half and never looked back with QB Fromm (16/22) throwing for two touches and 196 yards. In addition, the 'Dawgs were more effective in time (38:22 vs. 21:38) management, while accruing a 26-14 first down advantage. QB Bentley (227) of South Carolina struggled with two interceptions. This season Georgia does have talent on defense, but they have only 5 starters coming back. This is crucial in an early season REVENGE game for SC who needs to enhance their offensive productivity.   

Currently the line is Georgia -10 on the Las Vegas.  Over the last three seasons the ‘Dawgs have out gunned the Gamecocks 104-44, winning three straight games, covering two-of-three. SC covered last season grabbing 23-1/2 points.  Now the line has been adjusted accordingly with Georgia not the same unit on defense, while the Gamecocks have more offensive help.  SC must maintain a successful running game to stay within the number.  Also, South Carolina have gained support for their defense with Belk and Horn.  From the experience standpoint, they did play 16 frosh last week against Coastal Carolina.

Technically, in the series SC is 7-3-1 L11 ATS and 3-1-1 ATS at home.  Take the points with Gamecocks, but make sure you have +10.  Good Luck.

#3 OVERALL 2017

#8 IN FOOTBALL OVERALL

FINISHED ON MONSTER PLAYOFF RUN WITH 18-3 RECORD

09/05...UPDATE

The stage is set now as QB Foles will be starting for Philadelphia, as we estimated with our early season forecast at +4 Atlanta.  The line has moved down to -2-1/2 Philly.  However, we expect the number to increase Thursday to -3 or -3-1/2.  Now the home team has controlled the series of late from the ATS standpoint.  But, when you take in the obvious fundamental factors, including Foles' mindset and the inactive WR Alshon Jeffrey it's difficult to go against the line valued.  Jeffrey's was a key target for Foles last season digging the QB out of some tough spots.  Also, Super Bowl Champions that start the year against a unit they battled in the prior year playoffs, show a perfect 0-3 SU in game #1.  Technically, the series underdog is 4-1 ATS of late.  Good Luck.

4* SEATTLE -1-1/2 OVER BALTIMORE

RHP Cobb (4-15) has pitched well of late showing a 3.92 ERA L3.  LHP LeBlanc (8-3) comes in off a monster 7 innings at Oakland with no earned runs and the victory.  Although Cobb of Baltimore has thrown super outings this season, he has been hit hard at Seattle in his two starts, surrendering 13 earned runs and 21 hits in 11 IP.  Seattle has won 5 straight in the series, while the Orioles have gone 17-28 vs. LHP this season.  The Mariners start this evening 54-39 against RHP.  With Baltimore playing out the string with a 16-54 away mark, lay the run and 1/2 with Seattle.

8:00 Eastern

4* Virginia Tech+ (219) over Florida State

 In this ACC opener we have the #19 and #20 ranked units out of the preseason rankings.  The difference just might be the Sems have the more prolific offense.  Florida State brings back 12 starters 8 on the offensive side of the ball.  They are currently ranked #77 in production starters returning. On the other hand, Tech visits carrying around 7 starters offensively with a #58 ranking in production starters. But, we note great support will come from starting QB Jackson who garnered 3,315 yards of total of offense with 60% completions last season.  The major concern is the defense which shows 7 new starters, and that will be the key factor in the game determining who wins and covers. The last meeting of the schools came in 2012 at Lane Stadium as the Sems won 28-22.  The Series Record has Florida State leading 23-12-1.  Important for FSU is the return of QB Francois, who was injured last year, looking for a consistent and healthy season.  Florida State has first-year HC Taggart prepping, so Virginia Tech picks up a slight edge on the sideline.   The home team has covered 4 straight in the series, but we’re not buying.  Recall Florida State is 0-6-2 ATS L8 conference games and 1-3-1 ATS L5 in the month of September.  Tech has always played well as a road dog, especially going back to Beamer Ball.  Also, in September the Hokies show 5-2 ATS L7.  Stay with Virginia Tech to make this a competitive game staying close in a hostile environment.  Good Luck.

Louisiana is 3-0 all-time in games played at AT&T Stadium with all three wins coming over teams ranked in the Top 25 (No. 18 Texas A&M, 2011 Cotton Bowl; No. 3 Oregon in 2011; No. 20 TCU in 2013).  In addition, they show 6-1 ATS L7 on the field, while the 'Canes come in a horrid 1-7 ATS at neutral sites.  Take the points tonight with the Tigers.  Good Luck.

7:00 PM

4* (178) Louisiana Tech over South Alabama

Last year these two schools started a back-to-back series with Louisiana Tech winning the initial battle 34-16.  This time around, we have a changing of the guard for South Alabama as they bring in new head coach Steve Campbell who has an FCS background. South Alabama, out of the lowest rated conference in the FBS, returns 14 starters with improved options on offense and on the defense side of the ball. In the 2017 Sun Belt, the Jags finished 4-8, while losing their last two games of the season.  In the C-USA, the Bulldogs finished 7-6 winning their fourth straight bowl game in head coach Skip Holtz’s 5th season.  With 15 starters returning and a qualified offense and the best defense Holtz has had since arriving on campus they have a great chance to reach the championship.  In their game last season, the Jags were hurt by an ineffective running game (98 yards) circumventing consistent drives. If Louisiana Tech controls the line of scrimmage they can cover with room to spare.  Some of the key edges have to be Holtz’s experience over Campbell’s enthusiasm, and the fact Tech plays three of their first four games on the road.  Therefore, we have a major “must win” situation for Holtz and his football team.  South Alabama will be improved this season but must back Tech who is 6-0 ATS versus the Sun Belt Conference.  Good Luck.

4* (246)  Rutgers over Texas State

This situation will be all about the Rutgers defense stopping the run and getting to the quarterback.  Coach Ash of the Scarlet Knights accrues a Big-10 level of personnel vs. the #9 rated conference (Sun Belt) in the FBS.  Also, the betting line has varied this week because of starting frosh QB Sitowski.  If he limits mistakes Rutgers will cover.  Remember, Texas State uses a dual-threat triple option offense which will call for the Knights to be athletic defensively, and that issue, again, has improved over last year.  Also, State was ranked #102 in total defense in 2017 and it won't help that face a Big-10 unit Saturday.  Rutgers began the last seasons in bad shape because they faced PAC-12 unit Washington.  With the Knights 5-2 ATS L7 times out, and 5-2 ATS during the month of September.  Opposing Texas State is 2-5 ATS in September and 2-5 ATS in non-conference.  Stay with Rutgers for a surprising up-tick win and cover.  Good Luck.

4* Yankees (Serverino) -1-1/2 Runs over Zimmerman

Detroit's Zimmerman was just ineffective once again, so we can't be on that side of the ledger with New York off a loss.  Severino has been so-so of late, but the Yankees put out the fire sign for any chance of winning the east.  No doubt being 84-50 ensures a wild card berth, but I would'nt discount the Yankees coming up with a massive effort as Severino get ready for the playoffs.  Although the Tigers won Thursday, can't see them executing in back-to-back road games.  GL.

7:15

 4* (923) Cleveland -1-1/2 Runs over Kansas City

This is not a good spot for the Royals as they defeated the Indians yesterday.  Kansas City comes in 14-41 off a victory and 12-48 versus >.500 units.  The home standing Royals use hurler Fillmyer was just roughed up in Chicago (08/19) allowing 7 hits and 6 runs in just three innings of work.  KC is 1-6 L7 starts by the hurler.  Cleveland has won 7 of the last 9 games off a loss and ace Kluber (16-6, 2.74) gets the call who is 12-1 L13 on the road.  He just pitched at Boston (08/20) winning throwing 6-2/3 innings surrendering 3 earned runs.  With Kluber off a quality start the Indians come 40-16 and 24-5 against the ALC.  In the series, Cleveland has won 5 straight versus the Royals.  We’ll go one better here, and use the Runs Line in what should be a bounce back blowout.  Good Luck.

9:05 Eastern

4* (427) Chicago+ over Denver

As we thought last week (Sports Watch Monitor) the Vikings would handle the Broncos, though, surprisingly one-sided 42-24.  Denver faces struggling Chicago on Saturday.  The Bears have dropped back-to-back preseason games, 17-16 to Baltimore and 30-27 to Cincinnati.  If you recall, Chicago is stuck with an extra preseason game in 2018 and have been playing almost the whole roster.  Yes, we know Denver has not lost back-to-back preseason games since 2012. However, Chicago is frustrated and will come to play this evening using the #1 and #2 slots at each position.  It’s now critical from the timing standpoint.  Remember the Broncos gave away over 400 to the Vikings offense last week, so we’re pretty sure the Bears will be in this all the way despite being on the road.  In the regular season series Chicago has covered 5-straight versus Denver, while the Broncos come in 2-10 ATS L12 times on the field. Granted those numbers don’t reflect the preseason, but they are a intuitive indicator of the current reality.  Good Luck.

(413) 4* Buffalo+ over Cleveland ….7:30 Eastern

It’s somewhat difficult in the early going to take a shot against the Browns who franchise wise are looking forward to an uptick in wins/losses for 2018.  This biggest question for the public is whether subject line (-3-1/2) is appropriate as Cleveland is the chalk?  What I like about the points is QB McCarron will be under center at some point tonight, along with QB Allen adding more competition and rivalry in the overloaded position.  Both players have diverse skills, each could give the Browns defense problems.  Defensively, last season the Browns allowed almost 26 points a game (near the bottom) and the Bills gave back 21.7 points per outing. The Bills QB Taylor would love nothing better than to beat the Browns at home.  Though, we can’t help noting Buffalo has more talent and will be sky high.  On the technical side, Cleveland comes in 0-3 ATS L3 Friday exhibition games, while Buffalo is 4-1 ATS L5 in the series.  Good Luck.

5* Boston (Sale) -1-1/2 over KC (Hammel)

The Sox and Royals play off a day of rest.  Boston bring lefty Sale who threw a gem against the Yankees (11-0) last time with 7 IP allowing just one hit and no earned runs.  It was best road outing of the season.  RHP Hammel throws for KC illustrating 1-6 home this season with the Royals.  He has allowed 38 runs in those starts, while KC has generated only 16 runs.  In his last two home starts he was defeated 7-0 vs. the Reds and 8-0 against Texas.  For our money the runs line with Boston looks viable here.  Good Luck.

4* Seattle over Atlanta

No doubt the the Storm will be sky high on Sunday at home, after BB road games against LA and Dallas. This will their 5th game at home this season, while Atlanta travels after another road.  Actually, both statistically and technically the outcome and ATS margin should be achieved by the Storm.  They average 91.1 ppg and gun 8.9 made three's per game.  Atlanta does have the rebounding edge but, the Storm's emotional edge should overcome the factor.  No doubt the Dream have covered 4 straight in this building but, a reversal of form is in order.

8:05 Eastern

10* Cleveland+ over Golden State

NBA CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFF

GAME OF THE YEAR…BDS

It takes some insight or guts to come back with Cleveland after their ATS win and SU heart braking loss to Golden State in game #1 of the series.   Remember, the Cavs were 0-10-1 ATS going into their previous set when playing on the West Coast and they almost won the game!  Cleveland is 3-2 ATS the L5 games vs. the Warriors.  Statistically, the two units are very close in their recent matchups.  For Cleveland their offense is averaging 109.2 points against Golden State, while the Warrior offense is around 113.0 points per game vs. Cleveland’s defense.  Further, the Warriors in the series is shooting 49.7% against the “D” of Cleveland, and the Cavs are hitting 47.3% from the field challenging GS.  The numbers alone indicate another close affair in game #2.  From the player standpoint, the Warriors may not have Iggy in the lineup and Durant is shooting a horrid 31.7% from three in the overall post season.  Technically, Cleveland has covered 4 straight and 5-of-6 ATS vs. the West. The Cavs have been playing well against >.600 units going a profitable 5-1 ATS.  On the other hand, Golden State comes 12-25 ATS vs. >.500 units and 6-18 ATS off a SU win.  In closing, State is 0-4 ATS vs. the East and 0-4 ATS after two days of rest.  Good Luck.