5* VALPO -8 over Wright State

This is situation is loaded for the visiting VALPO (16-3) unit that is far superior than 11-8 Wright State.  Despite this being on the road, VALPO has the majority of fundamental edges.  In addition, they show with the #21 SOS in the country...well oiled for big games.  Too, they are 6-0-2 ATS after scoring 90, so they won't let down.  Plus they are cashing for their backers recently 5-0-1 ATS, and come 7-3 ATS vs. Wright State.  Oh, the road unit is 6-1 ATS in the series.

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5* Monmouth (797) over Manhattan @ 8:00 Eastern

The Hawks roll in 14-4 (11-5 ATS) vs. a 7-10 (5-9 ATS) Manhattan unit.  In 2015 these MAAC units have changed character based on recent seasons.  In fact, when you test the series the Jaspers have won all four games SU, 3-1 ATS.  Currently, the visiting Hawks are RED HOT winning 10-of-their-last 11.  Further, the floor edges clearly favor guard driven Monmouth who can pressure and play 9 deep with three double digit scorers and they support a statistical rebounding edge vs. Manhattan.  In their last 5 games, they have averaged 90 points, and face a Manhattan defense that is soft covering shots in the three ball range?  One critical angle to consider the Hawks are in the top-50 units in SOS this season.  Monmouth is 5-1 ATS vs. the MAAC, 11-5 ATS in road games, while the Jaspers come 4-12 ATS at home vs. winning SU road teams and 1-8 ATS vs. .600+ units.   TALK ABOUT REVENGE!

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4* Rider+ (781) over Siena @ 7:00 Eastern

Quite often during the month of January we find overlays because of the current reality inside the SU records.  Here, maybe a typical case when Rider (6-12) travels to hot shooting Siena (11-7).  The home team has won 6-of-10 SU in the series and shows 4-1 ATS L5.  Siena is scoring above their season average over the last five games (77.2), but still has major breakdowns on defense.  Rider is scoring almost 73 points per game last 5 season encounters.  The major weakness is rebounding.  In the matchup, the Saints have an injury problem with Wright (17.3) out until sometime in March.  They still possess 4 double-digit scores but, really only have 6 contributors consistently.  In their last meeting during, February of last season Siena came +3, won the whole game on their home floor 79-72.  Rider has won the last 4-of-7 games SU in the series, and shows 3-0 ATS as dog this season.  This is one game emotionally, Siena could be taken advantage of considering they are coming off a road swing, play just one at home, and then go back out on the road in difficult MAAC tests.  Note:  Rider is 10-2 ATS vs. teams with a SU winning record.

the 012016

5* St. Joseph’s -11 or less (557) over Pennsylvania @ 9:30 Eastern

(Penn Palestra)

This situation is part of celebratory double-header bringing back the historic City Series games to the famous Pennsylvania Palestra.   However, we note this is the home of the Quakers of Penn who would love nothing better than to knock off the hot Hawks.  Last year Penn defeated St. Joseph’s 54-52 on this same floor.  However, the Hawks are 7-3 SU & ATS vs. the Quakers last ten out.  Both units go around 8 deep, the Hawks bring 2 double-digit scorers with the key performers averaging 76.3 points per game.  Penn has 3 double-digit contributors 8 key players overall, but the core averages only 55.2 per.  Obviously, the Hawks come out of the A-10, Penn the Ivies…so conference SOS goes to coach Martelli’s crew.  As far as the matchup St. Joseph’s has all of the edges, and Penn recently lost Woods (10.3) for the season. Keys that will assist SJU covering this evening is the inept foul shooting for Penn @ 62.7%. SJU too, ranks #15 in three-point defense, 10th in fewest fouls (15.9 per). The Hawks are rolling in Vegas 11-4-1 ATS, 6-0-1 ATS in non-conference and 6-1 ATS vs. the Ivy League.  Home standing Penn has covered 4 straight, but show poorly with a 6-14-1 ATS record vs. winning units.  With this being another revenge situation for Martelli, feel the Hawks will pressure and Miles (17.8) should have a huge night vs. the inconsistent Quakers defense.

5* CLEMSON +10 over Virginia

ACC GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

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4* St. Peter’s (761) over Fairfield @ 7:00 Eastern

CBB EASTERN EDGE

MAJOR QUESTION:  30-POINT REVENGE, THEN WHY IS FAIRFIELD FAVORED BY JUST 2?

If there ever was a conference REVENGE game this season this MAAC battle would be right there as far as a special get back scenario.   In the last meeting in 2015, SPC crushed Fairfield 63-33, winning the first-half 22-7 to carry the game.  Plus the visitor shot 22% from field and went -15 in the rebounding category.   Good News for Fairfield (9-8) is Portley (14.8) has graduated for the Peacocks.  Offensively, the Stags have an amazing edge, considering they have just two double-digit scorers, but their ace Gilbert is the leader with 19.3 numbers, and he must be limited for the Peacocks to have a chance.  They play 8 deep will really challenge here, but their forgiving defense (78.8) is a concern. The Peacocks (7-8) have not played well on the road 3-6 SU thus far.   SPC does have the edge in SOS in conference, facing some tougher defenses.  They key statistically may come down to the FT% edge for Fairfield, and rebounding edge last five game for SPC +7.6.  In Vegas the home team is 3-1-1 ATS, and 5-0 SU in the series.  Stags show 11-5-1 ATS L17 overall in their meetings, but SPC is 5-1 ATS as an underdog 2015.

3* Monmouth over Siena....CBB

FAN APPRECIATION DAY TIMER

Tough spot for Siena (9-8) having to play without their leading scorer (Wright) outstanding shooting guard (17.3).  The visitor does have 4 double-digit scorers play just 6 quality kids deep.  Monmouth (13-4) is healthy comes with 9 deep, 5 double-digit scorers.   Over the last 5 games MU has been red hot from three (46.2), but allowing 81+ on defense.  Looking deeper we find MU with an advantage in SOS and facing more effective offenses than Siena in the MAAC thus far.  MU won back-to-back games (2015) 63-57 and 83-64.  Siena is 5-0 ATS vs. .600+ units and 6-2 ATS in the MAAC.  The opposing Hawks are 4-0 ATS vs. .600+ units and 5-2 ATS in this total range.  Further, the high scoring Hawks show 6-1 ATS vs. units that average 77+ points.  MU is 4-1 ATS inside the MAAC.  This is clearly a challenging number for a MAAC game, but with Wright out, can't help, but the lay wood, conservatively.

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4* Chicago+ over Detroit @ 3:35 Eastern

In this afternoon’s NBA battle Chicago (23-16) visits Detroit (22-18).  In the series Chicago is 6-4 SU coming into action, but the Bulls are 1-7 ATS in the division.  Still, must consider last meeting 147-144 OT win by Detroit a heart breaking loss for the Bulls which gives us an emotional piece for the visitor.  In addition, home standing Pistons are coming off a DD win over Golden State…this season Detroit is 3-6 ATS off a DD SU win.  In Detroit games recently the SU winner is 38-1-1 ATS, and the underdog in this series is a PERFECT 5-0 ATS.  Despite Noah being out with a major injury, prefer to back Chicago who catches the Pistons of Warriors win…Good Luck!

4* PITTSBURGH +7-1/2 over Denver @ 4:40 Eastern

A unique situation, Big Ben and company accruing value with the best offensive players out because of injuries.  So, you can rightfully understand why the current line gives all sorts of value.  And, not to discount, the situation accrues a level of relaxation for Denver's defense knowing they will not face Brown or Williams...In turn, the Steelers OC has already stated they will have to be very conservative to have a chance Sunday?  I have a gold farm under my house, would you buy that?  You can clearly understand the dog in the series is 6-2 ATS.  In addition, the last time these two met in a playoff game, the STEELERS were a -7-1/2 favorite at Denver.  Now, the number is reversed...VALUE!

5* LONG BEACH STATE+ over Cal Poly 10:00 Eastern

CBB SU UNDERDOG WINNER...BDS

4* ARIZONA -7. not higher over Green Bay

Hate going against the stat guys in the office, but the fundamental differences between these two are too much for me to pass up.  First, HC Arians approach to big games is effective and precise. He is a much under rated head master.  Granted the Cards have injuries, but the Packers will fear the force at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  When we chase big playoff games it means so much to have a running game and a defense...DITTO ARIZONA.  Don't be fooled by the easy win last week in Washington by the Pack. yes we were on the right side.  Still, different set of issues facing Green Bay, being on the road for the second straight week. while the Cards healed their bodies and watched their Washington encounter.  The home unit has covered 5-of-6 in the series, while the Cards show an AMAZING 27-12 ATS off a loss by 20+ (Seattle).  If you don't think the EMOTIONAL ANGLE is all Arizona here, my, my...CARDINALS!

5* NEW ENGLAND -5, not higher…(302) over Kansas City @ 4:35 Eastern

NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE WEEK…BDS

Granted the current win streak of 11 games by the Chiefs is a number viewed with great respect.  And, most will consider Kansas City’s 3-1 ATS mark at New England as a go with sign for the Chiefs.  However, overall the Patriots come 12-3-2 ATS home vs. winning road units L17 times out. The crowd favorite KC a horrid 1-6 ATS in NFL playoff games last seven.  New England is 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS L10 playoff games, at home 4-3 ATS in the post season since 2011.  In addition, this is a monster REVENGE game for the Pats and coach Bill Belichick after NE was smashed in KC (2014) 41-14. The Chiefs went out to a 27-0 lead, augmented by 8 sacks of All-Pro quarterback Tom Brady. Also, the last game played in NE was in 2011...34-3 for the Patriots.  During the 2015 regular season KC ranked #27 in total offense just 331+ yards per game, and #26 in total defense allowing just 339 yards a game.  NE rated #6 with 374 yards per game on offense, defensively #24 with 339 yards allowed per outing.  Recall last week vs. Houston the Chiefs capitalized on a QB with virtually few viable scoring drives in that 30-0 loss.  This time around QB Brady and the Patriots have accrued some rest time to heal the numerous injuries sustained during the regular season.  Comparable offensive productivity night and day between Houston and the Patriots.  Finally, Chiefs OL has allowed 46 sacks in 2015, so look for the NE defense to challenge early in passing downs! New England.

5* MIAMI FLA. over Clemson 2:00 Eastern

At this time in January, while in conference, we tend to look at SOS with a keener eye.  The 'Canes are a TOP-10 in that category, and come playing their best defense of the season over the last five games.  Clemson will accrue interest for they are at home and plus.  Still, love the Miami scoring options in what should be a close game until late in the 2nd half.  They have won 4-of-5 SU in the series and have turned heads around this year in conference.  Who would be believe they could be in for some time of national honors running now with a 13-2 SU mark.  HC Larranaga who went to Providence, has brought the eastern mindset to the 'Canes...69-62 Miami Florida.

3* NE over Delaware

CBB APPRECIATION DAY ACTION...BDS

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5* St. Joseph’s (538) over Fordham @ 1:00 Eastern

REVENGE GAME OF THE WEEK

Fordham (10-5) visits Philadelphia off an 88-54 beating by VCU, that’s BB games they have lost by doubles.  They are 8-3 ATS off a SU loss of 20 plus.  Fordham has played 11 of their 15 games at home.  However, they play a hot SJU unit that has won back-to-back games, while running with a solid 13-3 SU record.  As far as SOS the Hawks have a huge edge considering the Rams have played weak units in the conference early.   SJU shelled George Mason 87-73, and looks to build on that win at home.  The Hawks are 8-1 ATS L9 times out, and show 13-3-1 ATS home, while covering 7-of-9 as a chalk.  In their last meeting (02/15/15) Fordham beat SJU 69-55 shooting 48% from the field.  With this being a massive REVNEGE game for the Hawks, I’ll back the unit that is 9-1-1 ATS in this series at home.

10* SYRACUSE over Wake Forest

ACC GOY...BDS

Note, the Orange should be the favorite here, but only for the home floor.  Coaching contrast gives you the Saturday afternoon GOY winner...Good Luck!

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4* Monmouth (873) over Iona @ 9:00 Eastern

The key here after seeing both of these units play this season, feel the Hawks are more dangerous team, even in this road setting.  Granted last time in the series, Iona won 95-77 with guard English shooting 69% from the field.  Iona (9-6) is hot at home winning 7 straight at home, while Monmouth (12-4) 7-3 SU on the road.   The Hawks with the stronger overall, also has the edge in SOS, including facing more prolific offenses in the MAAC than Iona.  Further from the statistical standpoint the Hawks take care of the ball much better than Iona, and have an edge on the board.  Plus, they possess a foul shooting edge (76.6%).  The Gaels three guard set is dangerous with English (23.3) leading the way, so the key for the Hawks is limiting three ball chances.  Remember Iona is 0-5 ATS at home and 4-9 ATS vs. the MAAC.  Monmouth comes 6-0 ATS vs. winning basketball teams.

5* CANISIUS -1 over Manhattan @ 7:00 Eastern

MAAC BEST BET

Not crazy about laying points to the Jaspers who are 4-3 SU at home this season.  Feel the technical number illustrating a 15-5-1 ATS record for the road team in the series is driving Canisisus' chalk.  Recall they are just 1-6 SU on the road, but they clearly have faced more difficult defenses in the MAAC thus far.  In their four game losing run to Dartmouth, St. Peter's, Manhattan and Monmouth were by a combined total of 57 points.  And, the Jaspers have won 6 straight in the series.   Manhattan boards with 4 DD scorers going 7-8 dependable players deep.  The Griffs 12.5+ for all four of their key players.  Although Canisius is 1-3-1 ATS vs. the MAAC, we'll support the visitor as this is a HUGE GAME for the Griffs.

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10* Washington State+ over Arizona St. @ 8:00 Eastern

PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH…BDS

Classic overlay tonight out in Sun Devil country.  ASU has lost three straight brutal games to UCLA, USC and Arizona, a tough bunch for sure.  Now they are laying a hefty price with the public assuming a rebound is in order with Washington State the lesser unit from the strength standpoint.  ASU does possess the better defense and rebounding edges and protects the ball more effectively than the visitor.  The Sun Devils go 9 deep with 4 DD scorers.   WSU has an edge in scoring and does have a deeper bench.  Granted the home teams has been cashing inside the series 15-3 ATS coming into action, while WSU has suffered on the road 9-21-4 ATS.  Also, Washington 74-71 over Arizona State was the last meeting in the rivalry.  If you’re thinking revenge, think again, as the Sun Devils are a perfect 0-5 ATS vs. PAC-12 units with WSU a perfect 5-0 ATS off a SU loss…TAKE THE POINTS!

011316

Play on:  4* Florida (557) over LSU @ 9:00 Eastern

After losing a heart breaker to the Gators, look for the LSU team to have a winning event here.  The favorite has covered 7-of-10 in the series, while LSU shows 9-4 ATS in conference.  The visiting Rebels have a losing 1-4 ATS mark vs. the SEC.  However, Ole Miss does hold the opposition to 70+ points per game, and the Tigers need a bounce back effort.  In the recent meeting last season Ole Miss at home, LSU 73-63.  Remember LSUs offense does score out almost 83 points a game (Simmons) going 11 deep.  They don’t start a quality center, so they will need a huge effort on the boards tonight.  They were hurt badly by Florida on the glass. Rebels bring just 2 DD scorers but, go 8 quality players deep. Considering the inflated number now at +10 and revenge in mind, we’ll take a ticket with Ole Miss to keep this hated rival close.  Good Luck!

5* OKLAHOMA STATE+ over Oklahoma

CBB RIVALRY GAME OF THE WEEK..BDS

5* GREEN BAY over Washington

NFL KEY BEST BET ANGLE

BDS

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10* Minnesota+ (104) over Seattle @ 1:05 Eastern

NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR…BDS

Rarely do we go against the Seahawks, but I believe we have a special situation Sunday afternoon in Minnesota.  To add a little “outside edge” to the battle, the weather projection is estimated to be around zero degrees.  Already, I am thinking about former legendary HC Bud Grant’s approach to this type scenario, but then again the Vikings have that already with their running game and the ability to play one down at a time.  Surely, we are aware of the 38-7 beating the Seahawks put on the Vikings in December on this same field…So, we have same season REVENGE, on the same field in less than perfect weather conditions.  Remember Seattle jumped out early in that encounter and stifled the Vikings run game, which led to throwing the ball in obvious down and distance situations.  This gave the #1 rushing defense even more of situational edge.  Seattle (10-6, 8-7-1 ATS) is on a solid 6-1 SU run coming in with QB Wilson (24/1) in solid form.  In that run the Seahawks out pointed the opposition 224-98.  They have been playing on a high for sure.  RB Lynch (abdominal) will be starting for the first time since November.  Minnesota (11-5, 13-3 ATS) has had some inconsistency but, they were hurt with RB Peterson’s injury.  He is expected to be 100%.  The Vikings (144.9) start with the #4 running game in the NFL.  Defensively, they have held opponents to 18.9 points per game, and are one of the better run defenses in the NFL.  When you consider they are at home Sunday, the unit should be more than ready to cut off the big plays by QB Wilson.  Last year in the NFL playoffs, the underdog went 6-4 ATS.  Granted Seattle comes 5-2 ATS in the month of January, but Minny has been money in the bank at home 10-3 ATS.  And, at home they show a PERFECT 5-0 ATS versus winning road units.  With REVENGE, the weather, home field and the EMOTIONAL EDGE…Take the points!

4* KC -3, not higher over Houston

NFL POWER ANGLE

BDS

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4* PENN+ (634) over Princeton @ 4:30 Eastern

IVY LEAGUE GAME OF THE WEEK…BDS

At first brush, the visiting Tigers look unbeatable tonight when they face the Quakers at Palestra in Philadelphia.   They bring 9-4 record vs. the Penn 6-7 mark.  Princeton comes in off BB wins by 30 & 9 over Hampton and Norfolk State(?).  On a talent basis seemingly they have most of the key floor edges vs. Penn.   The Tigers board with 2 DD scorers (+9.8, 9.4) and go 6 quality players deep. 8 roster players have taken part in all 13 games this season.  Princeton does average 9.5 points per game more than the Quakers. Penn has 4 DD scorers, but fall off with 7 deep.  Henry (8.7) is a key, though, on the boards here.   SOS gives Princeton (#87) the edge, with Penn @ #245.  No doubt the Quakers have suffered versus quality units because of their depth.  In their last meeting the Tigers crushed Penn 73-52, so you can expect a major effort by the underdog.  In that encounter, Princeton shot 51.1% vs Penn’s 37.5%, so look for quality HC Steve Donahue to have the Quakers playing slower than in recent sets.  With the line value growing as we write, must back Penn who can’t letdown in this Ivy battle.  Critical defensively for the Quakers will be their ability to limit three- point success by Princeton (35.9%).  Long-term the Tigers are just 9-19-1 ATS vs. Penn, but they have covered 5/7 @ the Palestra.  With this being the Quakers most important game thus far, expect a great effort and a close game…TAKE THE POINTS!

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5* MANHATTAN (681) -3 over Niagara @ 3:00 Eastern

MAAC BEST BET…BDS

This has been a goofy series throughout the decades, but I can’t help going with the Jaspers who have won their last 3 SU & ATS (Canisius, Siena and Fairfield).  Manhattan 6-8 vs. 4-12 Niagara at the Falls this afternoon.   Important in MAAC road sets is the scoring abilities, FT% and 3Ball success, and here all favor Manhattan.  In day action the Purple Eagles are 1-6 SU this season.  On paper Niagara possesses a stingy defense (70.8) in comparison to Manhattan, but the Jaspers have the edge in SOS, #241 vs. #303.   Manhattan brings 4 DD scorers and go 8-9 deep successfully.  Niagara has just 2 DD scorers with 8 serious contributors…The DD scoring edge is 26+ points favoring the visitor.  The Jaspers must have a good day from outside as Niagara does bring the rebounding edge, along with being more disciplined handling.  Granted Manhattan is just 1-5 ATS on the road, but they are 9-3 ATS L12 vs. the MAAC.  Last year the two split out, but the underdog covered each.  Those numbers were -6 and -10, note the drop-off.  Go with Manhattan at the aforementioned number, not higher, please…Good Luck!

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4* Harvard (534) -10 not higher, over Dartmouth @ 2:00 Eastern

Going back over the last ten years the series SU has been all Harvard as the Crimson dropped their first in the series last year at home laying, 70-61.  The key in the game was Mitola (18 points) who has graduated from Dartmouth.   Also, one of the critical players from last year Boehm is accruing more minutes starting, carrying 11.4 points per game into action.  However, he is a poor foul shooting item….58.5% and has hurt the unit struggling who carries a 4-8 SU mark, 0-4 ATS thus far.  Harvard comes in 6-8 SU, 1-1 ATS at home, 5-4 ATS overall.  The Crimson, though, have been successful grabbing huge numbers vs. units possessing the clear talent edge.  No doubt, this is a different math composition as the lines makers are making us pay to play Harvard, but as noted overnight line has dropped (-12, -10) with the sharps quickly noticing.  Still, we must project Harvard who uses a three guard offense, + a floor edge in young center Edosomwan (52%) who is accruing more time this season helping in the scoring column.  Harvard and Dartmouth both play 7-8 deep, but the Crimson defense has faced sharper offensive (SOS) sets ins 2015-2016.  As an assistant at Villanova it was thought that Paul Cormier (Dartmouth) would be a solid Division I coach, fundamentally (court) yes, record wise….NEVER HAD A WINNING SEASON!  Technicals have the Big Green covering 4/5 at Harvard, but the Crimson have covered 5 straight recently vs. higher rated units than their Ivy brethren.   And, they show 10-1 ATS vs.

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4* Florida (520) over LSU @ 1:30 Eastern

This is a CLASSIC REVERSE ANGLE in my book, SEC style.  We catch the Tigers winning SU @ the PMAC the other night over #9 Kentucky 85-67.  Florida shows off a horrid road edition 83-69 losers @ Tennessee who is 8-0 SU at home.  The Tigers (9-5, 5-6 ATS) go on the road and are an underdog with a recent adjustment down to Florida -3-1/2.  The Gators 9-5 and 6-5 ATS are setting up in DOUBLE REVENGE, while coming off a loss.  LSU has a solid edge in scoring abilities (84.3) and play 8-9 deep with 4 DD scorers, Simmons 20.1.  Florida’s skill is defense holding the opposition to 63.5 points per game.  They have 4 DD scorers go 9-10 deep and will hack you after a made shot.  SOS belongs clearly to Florida #31 vs. #52 LSU…another reason for the chalk board.  Fundamentally, critical will be the foul shooting for Florida where both Smith and Hill have been off early.  Remember this is a very difficult scenario for LSU going against a hated foe on the road after KU.  Going back in history LSU is 57-80 ATS in January, while the Gators board 3-1 ATS L4 at home.  With the line value, Florida’s defense, DOUBLE REVENGE and the biggest game for the home unit this year….LAY THE WOOD!

4* Manhattan +10 over Canisius @ 7:00 Eastern

CBB MAAC UPSET ALERT...BDS

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4* (538) Fairfield -5-1/2 over Dartmouth….@ 7:00 Eastern

CBB Non-Conference Key Best Bet…BDS

Dartmouth out of the Ivy League comes 4-7 SU, 0-4 ATS on the road.  Home standing Fairfield from the MAAC boards tonight 6-6 SU, 4-1 ATS L5 at home.  The Stags have an edge in SOS including a quality loss on the road vs. 13-2 Northwestern.  Big Green does possess three DD scorers and play 11 deep.  The Stags average 12.5 points per game more than Dartmouth, while the visitor has a two-point net edge in points allowed.  Dartmouth comes 16-34 ATS vs. non-conference, 9-24-1 ATS L34 games.  More importantly they are on a PERFECT 0-6 ATS slide vs. the MAAC.  Recent logs show Dartmouth 14-14 SU last season, 7-7 SU in the Ivies. The Big Green did win 5 straight to close the campaign defeating Penn, Columbia, Cornell, Brown and Yale.  The only winning team was Yale (22-10).  The remaining units had a combined record of 48-69 SU.  Against the MAAC this year they scored a 79-54 win at Marist (4-8) on 11/17.  Fairfield completed a frustrating 2014 with a 7-24 SU mark, 5-15 SU in the MAAC.  It’s appears from our numbers and information that the Stags have improved more than their Ivy brethren, as an example they defeated Rider (-1) 74-70 in December, while coming off a blowout loss to talented Iona up in New York.  Last season, the Stags split out with Rider suffering at home by a 62-46 downer, won recently 74-70 at home.  Also, there was a OT heartbreaker to LMG on the road 61-59, but this season the Stags showed improvement 94-88 over the visitor on December 22nd. Off a loss this early season, Fairfield has won 3 games SU against Sacred Heart, Rider (4-9) and LMG, not impressive units.  The line on the Vegas Strip opened -6, we are now -5-1/2 (WH) and -5 (Wynn) @ 8:29 AM Eastern Monday morning.  Fairfield has back-to-back MAAC road games up next vs. Siena and Rider.  After the Stags, the Big Green continues traveling vs. hated Harvard who they split with last season.  The critical number here lies in the fact Fairfield will be laying (-1, -1-1/2 prior) their highest number as a chalk.  They defeated Rider (74-70), losing to Manhattan (66-72) this season when favorite, both MAAC teams.  So, really can’t ignore the inflated number or the Dartmouth 4-7 SU record. Against the spread early the Big Green shows 0-3 ATS (Seton Hall 12-2, Marist 4-8 and Stanford 8-5) lost by 17 to SHand by 14 to Stanford both games away from home.  The 73-63 loss to Marist was on the road laying 2-1/2.  With all factors considered prefer laying the number against an Ivy unit that is 0-6 ATS vs. the MAAC, while the Stags possess more options on offense.

Coach Paul Cormier

010416

3* Rider (539) over Quinnipiac @ 7:00 Eastern

CBB FAN APPRECIATION SPECIAL

Tonight we go back into a MAAC GAME where the Broncos (4-9) who have won back-to-back non-conference games visits Quinnipiac (4-8).  Rider is last in the MAAC standings with an 0-2 SU mark, while Quinnipiac has lost 4 straight games.   In the February meeting last year Rider won 94-83 shooting 51.9% from the field.  Rider is 3-1 ATS in series going back to 2003.  Quinnipiac’s best concern is their defense that allows almost 73 points per game, but they do have a slight edge on the boards here.  Rider commands the shooting edge both from the field and on the foul line.  In addition, the Broncos have a higher SOS, and power markers coming into action.   With Quinnipiac 3-7 ATS vs. the MAAC, and Rider 21-6-1 ATS vs. losing teams at home, we’ll play the visitor.

4* SEATTLE+ over Arizona

NFL UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK

BDS

10* BUFFALO +3, nothing lower over New York

NFL SUPER CONTEST TOP PLAY...8-2 L2 WEEKS

BDS...HAPPY NEW YEAR!

10* Ole Miss -7, not higher over Oklahoma State

Don't mean to raddle anyone, but this will be a close call from the spread standpoint. The Pokes are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last 5 bowl games dating back to 2010 all under the leadership of HC Mike Gundy.  As a 6-1/2 underdog they defeated Washington last year SU 30-22 in the Cactus Bowl..So, this is a step-up in class via the Sugar Bowl which is all SEC country.  Ole Miss recent taste of bowl action in the last three years..2-1 SU/ATS.  The 42-3 loss to TCU in Peach Bowl has the Hugh Freeze group sky high!  Only negative is their very best defensive player is out of the game as you know per the news releases recently.  The Rebs started strong 4-0 SU beating Alabama, but then lost on the road at Florida, Memphis(?), and Arkansas...Easily, the unit has an issue with focus. But, that will NOT be the case today knowing the opposing talent, the conference and the chance to pick up a DD win (9-3) season is a glaring issue.  The Rebs finished nicely beating and covering vs. LSU and Mississippi State...two hated rivals.  SEC BOWL FAVS show 4-0 ATS going into Saturday.  Oklahoma State (10-2) only lost two games, both at the end of the season to Baylor and Oklahoma.  The Pokes lead with their passing game QB Rudolph as the unit ended #10 in the NCAA throwing the pigskin.  The schools last played in 2010...Ole Miss 21-10.  For the Rebs to cover they will need their rushing attack to control the tempo and field position, and of course, the legs of QB Kelly will be needed. OKS is 2-7 ATS off a SU loss, 4-10 ATS after surrendering 450+ yards and 3-7 ATS off ATS loss.  The Rebs are 1-5 ATS off a SU win, but you can discount that item, considering the TCU debacle last season.  Ole Miss comes in 24-8 ATS non-conference, 3-0-1 ATS (January), 6-1-1 ATS at neutral sites and 4-1 ATS in BOWL games.  This should be a high scoring, as I remember the opening total was 67.  In closing, history has shown that teams relate more closely to current reality and for the Pokes losing BB conference game...ouch!  So, we are riding OLE MISS!

5* NORTHWESTERN +9 over Tennessee

The 'Cats come out of the surprising Big-10 with a 10-2 record, and the catalyst could have been the 40-10 loss to Iowa early.  Coach Fitz has done a great job, and stands to be the first coach in NW history to win 11 games.  The key for the Wildcats is their stingy defense, and with Vols inconsistent offense, I believe we have a great shot of not only covering but winning SU.  This situation means more to NW, so they will have the EMOTIONAL EDGE.  Also, UT is 1-7 ATS off a SU win of 20 plus.  Finally, the 'Cats show 4-1 ATS in bowl games...NORTHWESTERN.

4* Cincinnati -12, not higer...over Temple

CBB EASTERN EDGE...BDS

Normally, would not go against Dunphy or Temple when having the caution of double-digits. Still, the Bearcats (10-3) are deep (9) talented and should really wear out the Owls in the second-half for around a 15-point victory.  No doubt Temple has a quality win over Minnesota, but the Gophers looked simply horrible that night.  Cincinnati has covered 4-of-5 in conference and 4-of-5 SU in the series with Temple...Their last meeting the Owls buried the Bearcats 85-59.  Therefore, this is a great situation for CU revenge, while coming off a rough loss (81-79) to Iowa State the other day.  If you're playing, it's CINCINNATI...I will be back with more today!

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(241)  5* Air Force+ (8-5) over California (7-5) @ 2:00 Eastern

Armed Forces Bowl…BDS

Here we go, might type of football game a running unit (Air Force) vs. a passing attack (California).  Air Force came into the season with some high hopes, but key injuries (Romine) took their toll.  The Falcons went 3-3 SU in their early going, while the Golden Bears won their first 5 games.  After Air Force went on a nice winning streak in the MWC, but dropped a heart breaker in the championship game to San Diego State.  California after that perfect run fell off losing 4 straight games.  So, we find both units here in the Military Bowl.   Looking back, California destroyed San Diego State in September, but the Aztecs were somewhat flat after blowing out San Diego University.  Cal leads the all-time series 6-2 SU with Air Force 1-3 SU in the Military Bowl.  To win SU the Falcons will need to control the football throughout as the Golden Bears are 7-0 ATS when scoring 30 plus a game.  Still, the Cal defense is very forgiving as they given up at least 24 points a game in the majority (all but 2) games this season.  Cal comes 4-14 ATS on grass, the Falcons 6-1 ATS in non-conference games.  Finally, the Golden Bears a PERFECT 0-5 ATS vs. winning football teams…TAKE THE POINTS!

4* CORNELL +7 over St. Peter's

Could not secure definitive word on guard Morgan (Cornell) and his foot injury. He missed the Big Red's last game.  Overall, this eastern series has been closely contested since 2012 with the last three scores, SPC 59--52, SPC 67-59 and SPC 68-64.  With Morgan in the lineup Cornell can be very competitive against these types, while possessing almost three double-digit scorers.  They do show off BB SU losses to Monmouth (Morgan out) and Syracuse, so you can fully expect a huge emotional effort despite the road test.  Cornell is 5-6 SU, the Peacocks 4-6 SU and play a more demanding schedule.  SPC has three double-digit scores, however the unit has a tendency to play out of control.  The overall set should bring a very close call no matter who wins.  So, the points to this handicapper are the right side...If you thinking trends, Cornell is 0-8-1 ATS on the road, SPC 5-1 ATS at home. But, the Peacocks show poorly at home versus losing travelers.  CORNELL!

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5* Atlanta (110) +7 or +6-1/2 over Carolina @ 1:00 Eastern

Prefer everyone buying ½ point!  Recently, we have been going against the Panthers looking for their time to drop anchor and pick their tag of “normalcy” and a SU loss…no dice!  Carolina continues to cash SU wins, but the Giants did not give up last week, thankfully.   Here the task gets a little more difficult against a NFC South opponent in Atlanta (7-7) who is going nowhere, so this is there SUPER BOWL!  Clear talent differential for sure, but the running game for the Panthers #3 overshadows the #17 unit for Atlanta.  So, if the Falcons can find their short passing game and control a little better at the line of scrimmage, as they did last week vs. JAX they may win this SU.  After all, we know, even “SUPERMAN” is human!  Also, there is a bit of revenge, double carded if you will with Carolina blasting the home unit 72-3 in the last two encounters.  The Falcons are 6-2 ATS week #16, with the home team 6-1 ATS in the series.  Plus, the Panthers show 0-4 ATS after allowing 150+ yards rushing last time out…ATLANTA!

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Play on:  5* (103) Washington +3 over Philadelphia @ 8:25 Eastern

Okay, the Redskins are a poor road unit, have not played well on the road this season.  However, they have won back-to-back games late in the season and face their most challenging event thus far off a nice roll.  Philly is damaged physically coming in with a weak an injured secondary, let alone a “chasing” LB unit that can’t assimilate a big play when needed. Oh, thin on the DL too. Another injury inside their defensive starter set would cripple their current rotation.  Offensively, QB Bradford is playing well, but trying to overcome a “score” deficit tonight most lightly will change Chip’s game planning!  The only way the Eagles win this, is if they jump up early and control the game?  Series:  Underdog 4-1 ATS, ‘Skins 6-of-8 in Philadelphia.  Also, historically when an Eagles football team is fading at the end of season and coming off a DD loss at home…0-8 ATS. Realize Washington brings conflicting ATS numbers, but “mindset” here all WASHINGTON!

5* GEORGIA SOUTHERN +7-1/2 over Bowling Green

Yesterday we split out, because of the Temple debacle. However, we are using just one side in the Wednesday game plan for the bowl card.  Actually, I'm ticketing the school who I believe has the most dangerous  and under valued offense on the playing field in either bowl game today.  Take Georgia Southern to trade points with Bowling Green in a real nail bitter, and we thank the lines makers for the complimentary +7-1/2 to boot!  Good Luck!

4* Akron +7-1/2 over Utah State

Taking the value here with the number and the running game of the Zips.  Utah State seemingly in a home game scenario finished the season in a negative set, because thought after early success they could win their conference, not so!  Critical here for the traveling unit is their mindset, mindset and coach Holtz.  Akron finished 4-0 SU/ATS running for 229 yards in their last game vs. Kent. Granted UTS is a more difficult class of defense and will show up today, but they much mental to overcome based on recent results.  UTS is 3-7 ATS in non-conference game, while the Zips are 5-0 ATS L5 after holding an offense to under 100 yards on the ground...WIRE JOB!

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4* Minnesota (306) over Chicago @ 1:00 Eastern

The Vikings are just 2-4 ATS since 2009 when laying singles in this highly contested division long-time rivalry.  In November Minnesota (-1-1/2) did win out 23-20 at Chicago.  The Bears were limited to just 305 yards in total offense. Overall, Chicago defense allows 5.5 yards per play, 62% completion effectiveness.  So, the visitor will have their hands full again as they face a unit looking to make the playoffs, while playing 3-of-4 really tough games vs. Green Bay, Seattle and Arizona.  Coming in Minnesota is 10-3 ATS overall, 4-2 ATS at home, 9-0 ATS off a SU loss and 12-3-1 ATS in December.  Remember the Vikings average 4.6 yards per game rushing which should be the answer to their ball control keys this afternoon.  Chicago has a sure fire malady in PK Robbie Gould who again last week vs. Washington cost them dearly.  Plus the offense has suffered this season 3rd down…42%.  Chicago being 5-0 ATS as roadies does not give an automatic, especially considering 6-13 ATS record inside the division.

5* NY Giants+ over Carolina @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

Our bowl game of the week PUSHED here because of the timing of the line insert, but a national level the LOBOS covered based on the Saturday line in most stores.  This situation is real special because I have an old friend that's attending looking for the upset, so with that in mind...The Giants have shot themselves in the foot this season despite centered in the NFC East.  Winning last week over Miami stirred some hope in the Big Apple, but the Giants running game needs some stretch to win SU here.  Carolina is undefeated, 10-3 ATS, 5-1 ATS and looks dominating doing so!  QB Newton is every bit the stellar star we thought when he was a youngster at Auburn. He hates to lose and will take over the game when needed.  Still, over the last ten years these New Yorkers are 4-2 SU & ATS vs. the Panthers...the favorite in the series is 3-3 ATS since 2006.  Also, changing roles from one year to the next accrues value this time to New York.  Carolina played 9 games last season on the road...they were the UNDERDOG IN ALL GAMES!  In 2015 with the change road SOS schedule they have given -3, -3, -3-1/2, -1 and -5-1/2...ALL AGAINST LOSING TEAMS...Carolina lost ATS last time out on the highway versus New Orleans with the heaviest price of -5-1/2.  We must remember the lines makers are human also, and they find difficult to change character until there is a definitive long-term picture with corresponding results.  Note, here the line is only -4?  Carolina is 7-1 ATS vs. NFC, NYG 6-2 in December...more importantly playing in New York going back decades has always been a difficult venue for winning marque teams...There is no doubt Carolina has MOTO pass to a PERFECT season, but the immense pressure of the construct will show and give Eli and company a great chance to win the WHOLE GAME...Good Luck!

FREE TOTAL:  Carolina/NYG OVER 

10* Georgia State+ over San Jose State @ 7:00 Eastern

CURE BOWL...BDS

The first ever Cure Bowl has San Jose State (5-7) traveling a great distance.  SJU did defeat NMU last time out, but vs. other FBS units...a horrid 9-28 SU in the past.  GSU a starter program going back to 2010 finished the season on a 4-0 SU run.  And, they were very kind to their backers going 8-3-1 ATS.  Fundamentally, they average 6.3 yards per play.  Granted the Spartans come out of the MWC a more highly rated conference, but they did not fair well this season and seem to give up at the end of games...I doubt very much they are interested going to Florida around the holidays, despite the warm weather.  The EMOTIONAL EDGE here is all GEORGIA STATE...Look for an outright upset!

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3* Utah (204) over BYU @ 3:30

Normally, would not go after this type situation considering the overall coaching exodus at BYU with legendary Mendenhall and the OC going to Virginia…What does this tell the recruits for the Cougars?  Utah has not played well down the stretch losing some really tough games, being hurt by passing games (#96th YA) with tall and talented receivers just check out the numbers from the UCLA, USC and Arizona games.  The Utes too, like the Cougars have been hurt by injuries, however, each show 9-3 SU BYU with the more productive 8-4 ATS mark coming into the “Unholy War Bowl.”  The last meeting between these two was in 2013…@ Utah, Utes 20-13 winners…Utah has won 5-of-6 SU in the series.  Overall the series has been closely contested with 14 of the last 17 games decided by less than a touchdown.  This season when you check out PF/PA…very similar… The mental here because of the coaching changes for BYU favors the Utes…and SOS, FPI too…UTAH by 4.

5* New Mexico + (202) over Arzona @ 2:00 Eastern

College Bowl Game of the Week...Saturday

We clearly had a difficult choice between the Lobos and one other squad as our game of the week, however, I am sticking with the aforementioned considering they are at home will not give up even if behind in the 4th quarter.  As we enter another wacky bowl season, the public should be highly aware of the tendency to leap in the early sets to find themselves only behind when the more quality games come about.   Here the line came -11-/-1/2 or -11 to start, pending your outlet now down to -9 or -8 (Thursday) in most stores on the Strip.  Arizona (6-6) despite their 1-4 finish are the more talented unit and will have QB Solomon ready to start.  However, AU will be missing 4 starters and have injuries in depth positions coming into action.  On the other hand, NMU playing out of the MWC is lacking in SOS, has not played well historically vs. the PAC-12 (0-6) and have issues with special team units.  Granted this is much to swallow as a 5* selection, but NMU has the definitive EMOTIONAL EDGE considering how they played physically and mentally at the end of the season.  We especially, consider their ability to run the football and control the clock here. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in post season bowls, but 3-1 ATS recently laying singles.  Still, NMU will not give up and play this to the wire...TAKE THE POINTS!

5* BOSTON -3 1/2 (508) over Atlanta @ 7:35 Eastern

NBA GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

As soon as I noticed the over night "knee-jerk" line movement inside the Atlanta and Boston encounter...We went to work!  You see, I have been following the Hawks and noticed them being slayed by Miami, SA and OKC.  Then checked out the 127-106 win over the Sixers...hum!  This has to be the reason for the line movement, but we note both Boston and Atlanta look fairly close to what was expected this season.  In the series L10, the two squads have split out.  The home team has CASHED 5-of-7 tickets.  The last meeting in Atlanta, the Hawks soared 121-97, so this has to have some REVENGE in the cards for the Celtics.  Technically, Atlanta is 1-7 ATS after scoring 100+ with the Celtics 5-0-1 ATS after scoring 100+ points.

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10* Pittsburgh +3 (105), nothing less….over Cincinnati @ 1:00 Eastern

Spent many years doing weekend radio in the “Steel City” accruing friends and contacts!  All I can tell you is, they are buzzing about Big Ben and the Steelers.  Granted it plays right into the Las Vegas line movement that has the number down to +2-1/2 at the Westgate on the Strip.  We specified you must have +3 to qualify this situation as a GOY!  Granted the Bengals have had a solid season but, the last two weeks Pittsburgh is playing Super Bowl caliber football.  The Bengals show 10-2 SU in the division, the Steelers suffering without Big Ben 7-5 SU.  Visiting Pittsburgh is not awed by the site or Cincinnati winning and covering the last three in the series, covering 4-of-5 on the road.  In addition, historically Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has been money in the bank as a road underdog against a unit off a SU/ATS win.  Last week the Bengals chewed up the Browns 37-3, so we expect somewhat of a slow start for Cincy here in the first quarter…Remember Pittsburgh leads the series 55-35.  Critical is the Steelers secondary which has been hurt by the big play this season, so look for these two, despite weather, to trade points all day….We close with the Bengals 1-7 ATS in week #14, with Pittsburgh 13-2-1 ATS in Cincinnati…Now you can understand the heavy money overload the last two days…Good Luck, and thank you!

5* Army+ over Navy

It's not often that I go against Navy, but this is is a great situation.  Just based on talent and offensive productivity it would be easy to pencil in the Middies.  Granted Army is in a long series losing streak, but in 3-of-4 the have been highy competitive losing by 7, 4 and 6.  Also, the current Navy players are aware of coaching changes, and have a bowl celebration locked up!  THIS IS THE BOWL GAME FOR  ARMY...The Cadets have cashed 3/4 in the series, and looking back face their highest priced ticket since 2007...+19-1/2...TAKE!

4* Phoenix over Portland

This is the fourth road game in a row for the Blazers who seemingly have stumbled badly the last two falling to Milwaukee(?) and blowing a lead over Cleveland last time out.  In the last two series outings the Suns have pretty much handled the Blazers fairly easy, and although I expected a more higher price...PHOENIX!

4* Orlando +3-1/2 over Cleveland @ 7:05 Eastern

Normally, don't like going against James when he is rolling, and his effort was against highly noted in come from behind win Tuesday over Portland. Still, Cleveland has now lost 3/4 and travel to Orlando who have not defeated the Cavs in 11 tries losing by an average of 14.1 points per.  In the last four wins along Cleveland averaged winning by 15.  But, like our chances tonight with guard Irving out for Cleveland and the Magic at home getting points.  The Cavs are 2-10 ATS off a SU win and 0-7 ATS with 2 days rest.  Orlando (12-10) is 15-6 ATS this season and needs this one badly for their psyche...Good Luck!

4* NTU -2 over ULM @ 3:30 Eastern

If the Miners circumvent their (-9.4) tendency to turnover the football they can take advantage of the ULM major losses on offense (Jones and Leftwich) to secure a SU and ATS victory.  Further, the Green are a solid 13-3 ATS at home versus a school with a losing road record, while the visiting Miners come in 1-10 ATS on turf.  Good Luck.

3* LaSalle owns the series winning 8 straight.  They are 10-2-1 ATS vs. Penn and catch the opponent without their best guard.  LAS has the leading scorer in the country in Jordan Price (29.6), but will need to rebound more effectively to cover.  Remember 11/15 players of Penn are either frosh and sophmores.