10* SAN ANTONIO over OKC

Obviously respect the Thunder, but line opened in mindset perfectly, only did not expect the line movement indicated, especially considering Elias Sports Bureau stat machine's reference to the close losses suffered by the Spurs.  And when you consider 72-16 SA is just 2-11 at OKC you might be a little ill when you read this, consider I'm going the other way.  However, SAN is 17-6 ATS off a SU loss, while OKC is 0-5 ATS in Friday editions.  More importantly, SA has to be really frustrated by the recent encounters with the Thunder in this building, and believe put up sensational shooting numbers considering same...SAN ANTONIO.

3* CUBS (901) -1-1/2 over Pittsburgh @ 7:05 Eastern

It's Arrieta vs. former Met LHP Cole for Pittsburgh in the second game of the set in Pittsburgh.  Would normally look at Pittsburgh off a loss at home, but the Cubs are 5-0 with Arrieta in game #2 and 22-4 with 4 days rest.   Arrieta has posted 16 consecutive wins going back to 2015 and carries a massive 6-1 record with a 1.68 ERA vs. Pittsburgh, 3-1 in 2015 with a captivating 0.75 ERA.  Oh, the Pirates are 8-1 vs. LHP, and come with a +83 vs. +13 run differential vs. the Bucs.  The Pirates use former Mets lefty Niese (3-0, 5.08) who was just bombed in Colorado.  However, when at home he is a more viable hurler, but shows 1-4 L5 vs the Cubs in his career. And, Pittsburgh is 1-5 L6 vs. >.600 units.  With Pittsburgh playing sloppy baseball on Sunday, and falling apart Monday vs. the aggressive Cubs (18-6) will lay the 1-1/2.  Good Luck!

This situation from the runs line perspective tags Eovaldi of NY in this core mound appearance in Boston vs. franchise type lefty Price.  No doubt Price has pitched well vs. NYY going 3-0, 1.71 ERA to boot.  But, Eovaldi is off a monster effort vs. Texas and seems to be a ripe situation in a prime time event (ESPN) catching much juice on the Strip.  Granted the Yankees bats have been mediocre with a .223 average this season, scoring just 9 runs in their 1-5 run coming in to action Sunday night.  Still, the value is with New York who has been stressed lately because of some difficult losses.  Feel we'll see a 2-1 type game and the RL winner with New York.

5* BOSTON +1-1/2 over NY @ 7:10 Eastern

First off, this is the initial game in this old series for 2016.  At Fenway the Yankees have been successful of late going 23-13, winning 6-of-the-last-7 series overall.  So, expect the Red Sox to be jacked for this all important ALE series.  Boston has won 4-of-5 games in their current pace.  On the other hand, Boston has won 6-of-8 series openers thus far in 2016, and when leading after 6 innings they show 10-1.  RHP Tanaka (4-2) of NYY comes into tonight with a recent 5+ ERA vs. the Bronx Bombers. The Red Sox use young lefty Owens who held the opponents to a .171 BA with two outs last season.  He is coming in without a win or loss, while pitching well in the minors this early season.  With the Yankees 1-5 vs. LHP and 4-10 in the Division, back the Red Sox plus tonight.

955
5* Phillies +1-1/2 runs over Washington @ 4:05 Eastern
MLB RUNS Line Game of the Week...BDS
Not awed by the work of RHP Roark of Washington thus far.  Both he and RHP Nola, the former LSU product, of Philadelphia appear to be in a deadlock late this afternoon.  We recall the Roark/Washington factor is 1-6 vs. NLE, while the Phils have won 4-of-5 vs. the Nats.  Also, don't be hung up about Nola's 0-6 mark vs. winning units, as he looked outstanding last time out of Milwaukee. His sorry outing vs. Washington two weeks back, places the hurler in revenge mode tonight.  And, with umpire Barrett calling balls and strikes the road unit is a PERFECT 6-0. Good Luck!

3* Charlotte -15 over Philadelphia

The Sixers are now playing with 10 able bodies as Noel, Okafor, Grant and Holmes all will not play this evening down in Charlotte.  Further, they looked exhausted at the end of the 100-85 loss to Charlotte on Tuesday night in Philadelphia.  Because of the player issues the Sixers are now starting to put it up more often from three ball range.  This should help the Hornets gain additional rebounds and ball possession chances.  Remember Charlotte went 33-49 last year, they are now heading to the playoffs (43-31) and have shot at the #3 spot in the Eastern Conference.  They will not quit tonight, because their fans will be active considering this is their first game in this building going back to San Antonio, that was on March 21st a 91-88 loser.   Also, outstanding guard Kemba Walker did not play that well last time missing open spots on the floor frequently.  Charlotte has not laid this type lumber going back quite a few years...but, they are 9-1 ATS L10 and 3-0-1 ATS after a road trip of 7+ days.  Philadelphia, predictable, is 15-36 ATS off a double-digit loss at home.

712
10* Portland over Boston
Would normally look for reasons to play the Celtics, a more tenacious unit, but can't trust the road set considering the favorite is 7-2 ATS in the recent series.  Plus, the Celtics have been off for a few days looking to play out their campaign(?) and being on the west coast can generate an emotional edge for the opposition.  Boston is 0-5 ATS with 2 days of rest and 1-11 ATS in a road set with a home team hitting .600+ on the season.  Plus the visitor here is 0-4 ATS as a road dog of late, while the Blazers come 5-0 ATS as a HF...PORTLAND!

10* Badgers (871) over Notre Dame

Love the way Wisconsin (22-12) plays knowing they don't have "Big Time" talent, while utilizing their best floor constructs taking advantage of the liabilities on the defensive side of given opponents ongoing.  Simply can't trust the Irish (23-11) late in the game to execute effectively enough versus physical foe who will execute enough to win, which is all we need here.  We know Notre Dame has won back-to-back games over SFA & Michigan, plus upsetting Duke this March early on in the tourney, while bringing ATS success vs. recent Big-10 foes.  Wisconsin, though, has my intention covering 12-of-16 down the stretch against some talented foes.  Plus, the Badgers bring the edge in the power rating category....WISCONSIN SURVIVES! 

10* FLORIDA...+2 or higher over George Washington @ 7:00 Eastern

NIT GAME OF THE MONTH...BDS

4* Columbia (24-9) -7, not higher...over Ball State (21-13) @ 7:00 Eastern

Ball State is coming off back-to-back OT wins vs. so-so teams in the CIT. They bring just three double-digit scorers to this contest, going 9 deep.  Ivy league unit Columbia plays off an 86-54 win over Norfolk, uses 10 deep with 4 double-digit scorers.  The Tigers have the edge overall in our power sets and have faced a few more challenging units in non-conference.  Further, the Tigers are 13-6 SU at home, 3-1-1 ATS vs. a losing road team and 42-20 ATS in non-conference games.   BSU comes 7-3 ATS on the road, but 1-4 ATS vs. non-conference foes overall.  Home standing Columbia is shooting 40% from three last five times out, and will take care of the basketball much better than BSU.   In closing, with Ball State 2-8 ATS off a SU win, the play in COLUMBIA.

DON'T MISS OUR NIT GAME OF THE MONTH TONIGHT, CASH NIT GOY MONDAY

3* Valpo -3 over St. Mary's

Re:  LINE VALUE

Releasing this as a FAN APPRECIAITON SPECIAL, had to take a shot going against Mary, knowing the Crusaders play outstanding defense.  Yes, SM did defeat Gonzaga 2-of-3 this season, but the Zags have a habit of getting lost on defense.  Crusaders 6-1-1 ATS vs. .600+ units, and challenge Mary playing in their own neck of the woods does not help the visitor's cause...VALPO!

3* San Diego State -5 or less vs. Washington @ 11:30 Eastern

Difficult going against PAC-12 entity Huskies who show with a decent 19-14 record.  But, when you check out the SOS you find the Aztecs have faced an overall more difficult season.  Also, this is a REVENGE game for SDS after being smashed by Washington 49-36 last season.  Remember the Aztecs are 26-9 and have a 3-1-2 ATS mark vs. the PAC-12.  Plus SDS is 10-4-1 ATS after a SU win of 20 or more points.

03/21/16

10* (619) George Washington+ over Monmouth @ 7:00 Eastern

NIT GAME OF THE YEAR

Looking for GW to continue rolling in the NIT versus the tenacious Hawks.  Granted the kids from New Jersey have outstanding guards, but when their shots don’t fall the Colonial big men will clean up.  Also, guard Deion Jones is out for Monmouth, he scored 15 points in the last game that he play.  That’s a tough situation, so now this will put more pressure on the perimeter game for the Hawks! Over the last seven games, GW has an average net point differential of +4.0, while the Hawks enlist +9.7 points.  But, in that set for the Colonials was a very difficult 4 point loss to NCAA entrant VCU. SOS of schedule is about even with MU playing a more challenging non-conference slate.  George Washington (4 NCAA Bids) comes out of the A-10 an overall much stronger conference than the MAAC (2 NCAA Bids).  With the Colonials catching pointspread value and Monmouth 1-4 ATS at home versus a team with a plus road mark...G. WASHINGTON!

NCAA...
(726)
5* MARYLAND over Hawaii @ 7:10 Eastern
Expect to see the line move down today as the "public" will look closely at the "charm" team from the Islands.  Their center Jovanovic is starting to accrue more face time than Simmons of LSU!  Still, recall this is a #13 seed in Hawaii who caught major breaks in 6 games that we know of, including last time out vs. Iowa who was banged up physically.  As I said in many posts Maryland has been a unit that will underachieve, unless their challenged from outside sources and their fan base.  As you know we had SDS against Maryland covering a monster 7* selection.  Here, believe the Terps "scoring" talent will simply over power Hawaii.  I see the 'Bows talented center ending up in foul trouble as Maryland forces the ball inside to continue challenging (foul trouble) the key player on the floor.  Granted Maryland is 0-4 ATS in the NCAAs, but the overall scoring challenge for Hawaii will bring defensive deficits late in the game.

7* Portland (701) over DALLAS @ 4:05 Eastern

NBA MONSTER CRUSH

BDS...On Sunday afternoon Portland (36-34) travels off an open date vs. Dallas.  The last time these two met was in 2015 with Dallas winning and covering at Portland in OT 115-112.  The Mavs were a 1-1/2-point underdog.  Recently the underdog has done well in series, so last time out was a break in the probability quotient.  Granted the Mavs are 9-3 ATS at home in the series.  But, we have to give some credit to Portland because of their scheduling dynamics.  After playing 6 straight road games earlier, they then had to face Washington, Golden State and Orlando.  After they went up against OKC, San Antonio, and New Orleans last time out winning 117-112 at home.  Horrible stretch of games!  Portland is 11-4 ATS overall vs. the Western Conference, and Dallas is 3-8 ATS off a SU win at home vs..>.500 units.  Also, the Mavs have been sucking air, somewhat, 3-7 ATS L10 overall and show off BB losses.  Look for the sporting community to push to Dallas as the chalk.   No matter, we are on Portland.

031816

4* St. Joseph’s (848) over Cincinnati @ 9:55 Eastern

Check out HC Phil Martelli of SJU as he takes the Hawks into a battle vs. American Athletic’s Cincinnati University.  The Hawks come in ranked #31st in offensive effectiveness, as they commit turnovers at a 10.1 rate. In addition, they have played a stronger non-conference schedule than the Bearcats.  This is an indicator the Hawks treasure the ball, one possession at a time.  And, they have faced the same level opponents that the Bearcats have during the regular season.  Over the last five games Cincinnati has been the better defensive team, while the Hawks are 80+ in scoring.

Critical for the Hawks is the abilities of PG Kimble a stellar frosh who comes off a nine assist outing with players like Miles and Bembry complimenting.  This will not be easy for the kids from Philly as Cincinnati is familiar to the grinder playing 14 games decided by 7 points or less the last 90-days. Techs illustrate Cincinnati is not a strong unit on neutral sites 1-6 ATS and 1-4 ATS in the NCAA, SJU 5-0 ATS on neutral boards and 7-0-1 L8 non-conference games.  So for me, the points are play...ST. JOSEPH’S   FREE BONUS TOTAL: UNDER

10* South Dakota +10 over Maryland

TOURNEY TOP PLAY ALERT...BDS

Analysis later on Thursday evening.

5* Temple +7-1/2 over Iowa

CBB SMASH MOUTH SHOCKER...BDS

Realize the World Psychology may rest with 21-10 Iowa who many believe are a legit dark horse in the tourney.  But, these battles between head coaches McCaffrey and Dunphy go back to the battles in the summer leagues in Philly and New Jersey.  The big difference between the two coaches, Owls mentor Dunphy is 3-15 SU in NCAA tourney battles.  In the majority of those games Dunphy was booked as an underdog.  Here we have a sufficient line though, if the Owls do not win the game.  I am enforcing the physical nature of the Temple that will represent a trying task for McCaffrey and the Hawkeyes.  Interesting over their last five games, for both Temple and Iowa they come with almost identical stats?  The weakness seems to be in the Iowa defense that has allowed 69 points per in that time span.  But, we know that has much to do with SOS.  Still, Iowa does show 1-7 ATS L8 times out and 1-5 ATS in the NCAAs.  Temple is hitting 70% ATS vs. .600 plus units and a sensational 14-3-1 ATS off a SU double-digit loss at home...TEMPLE PLUS!

5* HAWAII+ (843) over California

CBB KEY PLAY...BDS

Normally, would not go against the Pac-12 in this type situation, but the Rainbow Warriors 27-5 record is not to be ignored.  At that's considering they lost to LBS 74-72 last time out in the Big West Conference Tournament.  They show 27-5 overall and the season, while going 4-1 ATS vs. .600+ teams.  Cal shows with a super 23-10 record playing in the PAC-12, but must improve on 0-4-1 ATS record at neutral sites to survive today.  In addition, the Golden Bears 8-20-1 ATS off a SU loss equates to a "value" scenario for us today...Good Luck!

5* UT-Chattanooga+ over Indiana

UTC has speed and quickness to play with Indiana!  In fact, I would not be surprised to see the game come down to the last 3-4 minutes in the second-half.  The Hoosiers usually physical these type units, so expect the game to be close throughout.  If Moccasins stay out of foul we have a cover! Remember, UTC is a SUPER 5-0 ATS .500+ units and 6-1 ATS vs. winning teams.  Indiana has not done well in Vegas at neutral sites and in the NCAA, going a combined 2-8 ATS.

10* INDIANA +2 over Toronto

No doubt the so-so but, winning record (36-31) this season for the Pacers has been depreciated somewhat by their inability to handle success.  In fact, after a SU win they are just 3-8-1 ATS.  This does not build well for Indiana since talented Toronto hits the hardwood tonight.  45-21 is a clear indication the Raptors are for real.  And, when you add in their stellar 8-1 ATS series mark, 7-1 ATS at the Pacers it's clear we surely have the wrong team chalked...INDIANA!

3* KANSAS over Austin Peay

CBB BLOWOUT SHOCKER...BDS

10* Yale +5-1/2 (721) over Baylor 2:45 Eastern

Getting a little misty here, but I have a poem title from one of the great poets of our time, Dylan Marlais Thomas..."Don't go gentle into that good night."

Happy St. Patty's Day everyone!  To generate the green today we are coming out with CBB GAME OF THE MONTH on the Yale (22-6) Bulldogs. Yale has covered 6 straight non-conference games coming into Thursday action. No doubt facing a Big-12 entity is difficult, no less away from the east coast and Connecticut.  But, playing in the West Region could really help Yale a team who's style and dedication just might influence Baylor into key floor mistakes. Yale finished the season on a super 7-1 run, but again that was the Ivies.  They lost senior Montague last month who was expelled.  That could be an issue, as Baylor is extremely athletic.  The Bears super players, including Sherrod have made the unit a pleasure to watch down in Waco finishing 22-11 on the season, being unable though to handle Kansas.  This is a huge game for the Bears who were taken out quickly last season by GEORGIA STATE in the first round!  Yale too, has something to prove not being in the Big Dance going all the way back to 1962.  They are 5-of-7 ATS against the Big-12, and 33-15-4 ATS off a SU win. WIRE JOB!

4* Michigan over Tulsa

Realize the Tulsa quickness may frustrate the "Blue" but, still can's see how they can win this SU.  The line has depreciated in favor of Tulsa money, but their ranked #274 in perimeter defense which helps Michigan.  Further, Tulsa is 8-11 SU vs. RPI units in the first 150 in that team culture.  Golden Hurricanes competes 0-7-1 ATS at neutral sites, so I'll take a ticket with the BLUE!

7:30 Eastern
(627) Bucknell vs. Monmouth (628) 03/16/16
One of my favorite teams back is the Monmouth Hawks as they bring a monster 2012 season out of the MAAC.  The Bucknell Bisons show after competing a so-so 17-13 season in the Patriot League.  Monmouth runs a three guard offense, but will be missing Deon Jones (10.3) who is out of the game.  The Hawks normally bring three double-digit scorers playing 7-8 deep.  Look for center Tilman and forward Quinn to accrue more time tonight.  The Bisons are led by guard Chris Haas who is averaging 17.2 points per game.  Strength of schedule clearly favors Monmouth who matriculates in a much more difficult conference.  Over the last five games the Bisons are averaging 80+ holding opponents to 68.8 points per. Monmouth is scoring at a 73.4 points per game average, while holding the difficult opposition to 63.2 points per. Against the spread Bucknell finished with a 2-3 mark carrying a schedule that experience very few lined games.  The Hawks finished the regular season 20-12 ATS....With the Hawks 5-1 ATS off a SU loss, back 5* MONMOUTH.

CONTINUE TO GO AGAINST PHILLY CONSIDERING INJURIES HAVE REALLY CREATED A GAP IN ABILITIES AGAINST THE REMAINDER OF THE NBA.  GOOD LUCK!

5-GAME PACKAGE AVAILABLE TODAY USING DISCOUNTED PER DIEM OF JUST $69.

10* Portland over OKC

NBA TOP PLAY...BDS

5* CHARLOTTE (37-28) -7 not higher over Dallas (33-34) @ 7:05 Eastern

Tough going against Dallas off a SU loss and their 7-2 ATS mark vs. Charlotte, but the Hornets have won 7 straight and have looked solid doing so.  The key here is the Dallas that is on an extended losing streak when allowing 100+ points, they did it again at home vs. Indiana last time out.  Dallas shows 6-21 ATS on the road vs. winning home units.  Therefore, the Charlotte ATS are right on considering a 10-1 ATS off a SU win by 10+ and 8-1 ATS against a team that surrendered 100+ in their last game.

10* ST. JOE +5 over VCU

Always difficult taking in a championship setting, especially after a war the prior day.  But, this is the genius of coach Martelli (SJU) who will keep his unit in the game to the final whistle. Either switching defenses or slowing the pace, no matter another wire job on-deck.  VCU more talented and deeper, but has not faced a determined unit as such, therefore expect a little over confidence considering they won 85-82 at Hawk Hill this season.  Remember the dog is 6-0 ATS in the series, while SJU 5-1 ATS. TAKE THE POINTS!

10* HAWAII over LBS

#1 TOURNEY BLOWOUT...BDS

We have won 3-of-4 TOP PLAYS angles here.  And. should be a huge day for our selections.  Later today, we find "hot" LBS going after the money vs. the more talented Rainbows who are 26-5 SU on the season.  LBS did beat Hawaii 74-72 last time out during early March, which is a major "emotional" edge for Hawaii.   Plus, Hawaii is 4-0 ATS vs. .600+ units.  With Hawaii covering 4 straight on Saturday's and with the more diversified offense....HAWAII!

10* DALLAS +1 over Indiana

NBA TOP PLAY ALERT...BDS

The Pacers (34-30) show with a talented, but a nicked up unit (Miles will play today).  This is a major factor dictating their so-so record SU and ATS (18-16).  Dallas without the overall talent level of Indiana is 32-30 SU coming in with a decent ATS record of 20-14 ATS mark.  Indiana is 3-0 SU and ATS L3 vs. Dallas and 9-2 ATS in the series, 6-1 ATS at this site.  Still, must show great respect being at home and playing in day action off 4 straight losses.  Plus, this a major double-digit revenge situation after being mauled by Indiana in the their last meeting.  Indiana comes with a horrid 6-15-1 ATS record on Saturday, 2-7-1 ATS off a SU win.  Remember, the Pacers are coming off a 99-91 win over San Antonio, so expect some over confidence early in this encounter.  With Dallas being the underdog now (Noon Eastern) believe we have the underdog of the day.  Good Luck.

726
7* TEXAS A&M -6-1/2 over LSU @ 1:00 Eastern
CBB SEC TOURNEY BEST
15-1 RUN WITH PACKAGES ON THE PLAYBOOK...OVER 77% THE LAST 30-DAYS!  Saturday we go back into the SEC where we find the Tigers facing the hated Aggies of A&M. During the regular season the series split out with the chalk winning and covering each. The favorite has covered 4-of-5 ATS in the overall series.  We note, Hornsby is gone for the season and LSU has felt the absence finishing 19-13 SU, and 11-18 ATS overall. In addition, they are 0-4 ATS off a SU win.  Defensively, the Tigers tend to have show inattentiveness allowing a 51% shooting effectiveness the last five times out. And, a corresponding 80% scoring average via the opposition in the same time span.  Remember Texas A&M completed a solid 25-7 record covering 19-of-32 games.  The Aggies show 3-1 SU at neutral sites. Look

5* SJU over G. Washington

Hawks coach Phil Martelli looking for different combinations to stop the Colonials here.  Although have been inconsistent lately they do have GW's number covering 5-of-the-last 6 in the series.  Also, the Hawks bring one of the best records ATS off a SU loss with a massive 42-17 streak showing today.  Granted the Colonials and will try and pressure the Hawks, but the coaching edge with Martelli comes through big time for the Philadelphia bunch.

10* PROVIDENCE (728) +3-1/2 or higher....over  Butler

BIG EAST LINE VALUE GAME OF THE YEAR...BDS

Check out the Friars coming in with a substantial numeric on their side being in the dog position that is 5-0 ATS in the series.  Granted the win yesterday over SJU was expected, but this series has always been a nail bitter and plays into the Friars 9-1 ATS mark on neutral floors.  Further, Butler is 21-9 SU, but check out some of the overall facts and circumstances as they were very fortunate in five games that possessed changing characteristics to initial believes.   Providence won at Butler this year 71-68 and cover @ a 17-7 rate in this price range.  Finally, Butler may have slight scoring advantages, but this is a "CLASSIC WIRE JOB."  TAKE THE POINTS!

4* LASALLE +7-1/2 or higher over UMASS

CBB EASTERN EDGE...BDS

Explorers look for court using "slow pace and defense" to generate turnovers and sloppy ball handling by UM.  The road unit is 5-2 ATS in the series with LS a sparkling 10-3 ATS after three consecutive games at home.  By the way, losing is falling UMass at home ATS, don't be caught on the wrong side..Note, the line may move slightly higher so stay aware overnight..GOOD LUCK!

10* (606) COLUMBIA +2 over Yale

IVY GAME OF THE MONTH...BDS

Not afraid to back Tigers who played grinder yesterday vs. Brown as we forecasted. Granted 21-6 Eli apparently bringing the "better" team to the floor vs. 21-9 Columbia.  In fact, Yale has a 12-3 ATS record against Columbia which adds to the public support.  However, the Eli played a much easier tilt yesterday, which gives the Tigers an edge in the "tension" factor.  So, we look for a slower paced game today as Columbia tries to reduce the ball positions of hard firing Yale. Remember, technically the Eli have not fared well vs. winning units going 1-3-1 ATS, so this is a distinctive change element helping Columbia.  The Tigers have covered 4-of-5 in conference which adds a little to our support.  More importantly, I admire the "character" of Columbia and their overall tenacity...UPSET ALERT!

3* Duquesne (563) over St. Joseph's

CBB FAN APPRECIATION ALERT...BDS

Today the 24-6 Hawks go against the Dukes who are running .500 @ 15-15-1 SU this season.  Overall, the matchup clearly favors the HAWK HILL bunch who simply have more offensive answers and the talented Phil Martelli guiding.  In fact, SJU comes 42-16-1 ATS off a SU loss which generated the -14-1/2 opener inside most houses.  Still respect Duquesne enough here to make a play considering they do play hard, even against quality units.  The road unit is 6-1 ATS in the series and we all know the Hawks have bigger games down the tourney schedule...DUQUESNE.