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(478) 10* Denver over Houston @ 8:30 Eastern

Granted this is not the Broncos best role of late at home, laying points.  However, l’m sure I don’t have to tell you how much it means for Denver to have head coach Gary Kubiak back on the sidelines after suffering complex migraines a few weeks ago.  Going all the way back to his days as a Texas A&M quarterback, the coach has always been a tenacious competitor.  Now his unit shows off back-to-back losses to Atlanta and San Diego, and outstanding quarterbacks in Ryan and Brees.  So, it appears to be a tailored made situation for the Broncos, at home on Monday night.  The young Texans come off a scintillating OT win (26-23) over Indianapolis, and have played the majority (4-2) of their games this season in the friendly confines of NRG Stadium.  Houston is 4-2 on the season (3-2-1 ATS), while the home standing Broncos bring a 4-2 mark both SU & ATS.  With this being such an important game for each unit, one of the keys we look at is the turnover numbers.  Denver is ranked #9 in the NFL (11-8) with a plus three but, visiting Houston is rated #26 (6-10) at minus four.  On the field, and considering the current number in Vegas playing a clean game will be paramount for both teams.  Recently, both Denver and Houston have been losing propositions on Monday night, but the Broncos have covered at a 4-1-1 ATS mark at home and bring a 12-5 ATS off a SU loss.  Finally, the Texans have faced two quality teams this season in New England and Minnesota and were completely blown away.

4* Nebraska over Purdue

Bad building for the hurting Boilers as they travel to Lincoln to play the pissed off 'Huskers who were beaten last year by Purdue 55-45.  Nebraska will look to stay unbeaten with a 5-0 (4-1 ATS) streak after winning last week at Indiana.  Here we find the number daunting on the Strip but, Purdue is banged up physically and will fall early in what should be a 45-10 win approximately for Nebraska.

5* TCU+ (325) over West Va.

It looks as though the Horned Frogs don't be long on the same field as the Mounties, especially in Morgantown.  And, when you further note that WVU was smashed by this same unit 40-10 last year, you would fully expect a rebound effort considering.  WVU is 5-0 on the season and shows with Oklahoma State on-deck.  On paper, the major field weakness for either squad is the TCU defense that has been riddled by dual purpose offenses this season.  However, the Frogs have won 3-of-4 with the only loss to high flying Oklahoma.  Plus, they have gone 7-3 ATS in the month of October, while the Mounties are 6-20 ATS at home vs. a >.500 road unit. TAKE THE POINTS!

10* Colorado+ (389) over Stanford @ 3:00 Eastern

Last week all Big-10 road team won, so don't be surprised if that trend goes west this weekend with the exception of one encounter.  Granted the Cardinal did defeat the Irish last week at South Bend, but this Buffalo unit has really come on this season with a outstanding 5-2 record.  In addition, they show on a 7-0 ATS run this season...COLORADO!

5* Indiana (327) over Northwestern

Both clubs are now 3-3 on the season, but the Hoosiers show off difficult back-to-back losses to highly rated Ohio State and Nebraska.  In fact, if you add in the game against Michigan State three weeks ago it's obvious Indiana is falling down in class having to play upstart NW. Indiana comes in 5-1 ATS in conference, while the underdog fires a 5-2 ATS in this splendid series. 

5* USC over Arizona

Despite this road setting, still going with the young QB of the Trojans who's QBR is off the charts considering the opponents and settings.  And, we look for Adoree Jackson of USC to continue spurring the under valued special teams with his speed and big play ability, not discounting bringing field advantage situations.  Realize the underdog has been the play in this series but, the 'Cats are on a 1-7 ATS dinger and show just 5-11 ATS at home.  The road unit in the series has covered 5-of-7 in Vegas.  Stay with us as big games are on-deck.  Good Luck.

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10* Mississippi State +7 over BYU @ 10:15 E.

One of the keys  this season has been college football and the SEC combatants for this handicapper.  So, we absolutely love the Bulldogs (2-3) tonight, despite a road setting in altitude.   Also, we are ignoring the BYU (3-3) 5-1 ATS run on the Strip since they will truly experience a “national realm of reality” when they face this SEC unit off a loss.  Remember the Cougars show tonight 0-5 ATS against the SEC.  Good Luck.

Buy 1/2 point if you can to reduce this situation to Baltimore -3.  Good Luck with the current scenario. Brad Diamond

10* UMASS over Tulane

The huge edge here is UMASS is coming down in class after a huge battle last week with an SEC unit, and they COVERED.  Here they match-up well with the Greenies, and they catch the unit traveling for a rare date back east.  Look for a SU win by UMASS.

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5* Florida over Vanderbilt @ 12:00 Eastern

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

Realize the Commies are over their heads Saturday early when they face the upstart Gators who were just ousted by the fiery Volunteers in Knoxville.  Not only do the visitor possess the talent advantage, but they have now answers on defense to stop a diversified offense.  The road team is 8-0 ATS in the series, while Florida has covered 4 straight in Vegas when traveling to Vanderbilt.  Good Luck.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE WEEK

5* AUBURN +3-1/2 (394) over LSU @ 6:00 Eastern

Still not impressed by LSU thus far, considering we thought a National Title just might be in the cards.  However, the start-up of new DC Aranda’s defense showed some issues last week even in the win over a MSU unit that returned just 11 starters and were playing on the road already with a loss against South Alabama in their deck of cards.  Also, LSU has a banged up offensive line and there were many verbal out bursts on the sideline trying to generate cohesion last week.  Granted Fournette had a solid game, and he went nuts against the Tigers front last season for 200+ yards.  Still, Auburn has the running arsenal to power the LSU defensive line, even with their issues on the OL.  They have a workable QB in Stan White and 12 overall returning starters who were destroyed by LSU last season 45-21.  We look for a nail-bitter this time around as the home team in the series is 6-1 SU L7 times out and 6-1 ATS.  By the way, Auburn is 7-1 ATS off a double digit loss.

5* Ottawa -5-1/2 over Toronto @ 7:00 Eastern

Major BEST BET tonight in the CFL with under valued Red Blacks (5-5-1) who are at home laying a depreciated price @ 5-1/2.  Realize some systems do point to Ottawa, but see reflective component inside the psychology of the game that projects a major turnaround by the home unit.  Granted Ottawa is just 1-3-1 SU at home this season, but so are other Canadian units suffering with home cooking in 2016.  In their last battle back with Ottawa in late July, Toronto escaped 23-20.  No doubt the Red Blacks have suffered from the injury bug, and that stat is reflected in the current line.  However, the home field, emotion and a 6-2 ATS mark versus the East for Ottawa dictates that no only win SU, but cover and erase their 0-5 ATS record at home this season.  Good Luck!

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10* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH

(304) Georgia Tech+ 9-1/2 or higher over Clemson @ 7:30 Eastern

Okay, maybe you’re not impressed by the 3-0 Engineers who have defeated Boston College, Mercer and Vandy the last three outings and now play on a short week versus Clemson who has a perky national ranking.  Still, when coach Johnson (3-9 LY) is dealing out the endorphins this week his 11 returning starters will accept whatever the savvy Johnson can generate.  Clemson (14-1 LY), who returns 12 starters, surfaces off three straight wins over Auburn (at), Troy and South Carolina State.  Tech may actually be their most difficult task as far as talent level thus far.  Unfortunately, the Tigers play off a short week too, but have a monster issue with Louisville next in South Carolina.  Feel Tech should have the emotional advantage here, considering Clemson beat them last year 43-24 holding their rushing attack to under 2 yards a carry.  “It appears” coach Johnson has a more balanced edition, and being at home possess legit shot at SU win.  Remember the Tigers are just 4-10 ATS in the ACC and 2-7 ATS on the road.  With the home team covering 6 straight in the series, we’re all over the Engineers!

(269) 4* Cincinnati+ 3-1/2 not lower, over Pittsburgh @ 1:00 Eastern

Pittsburgh crushed Washington 38-16 after Big Ben threw 3 touches to augment the surprising easy win.  The tables turn this week when the Steelers face one of their arch rivals, the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Bengals broke the Jets wings with a 23-22 huge victory at New York in week #1.  Also, if you’re into ATS streaks we welcome you to the Cincinnati side of the ledger….how about 9-0 ATS in road games on-deck.  That is the reason for the conservative home chalk number placed aside Pittsburgh -3-1/2.   The road unit and underdog is on a 3-1-1 ATS roll in the series.  Cincinnati is just 1-4-1 ATS in this building, but shows 6-0-1 ATS in week #2 and 9-2-2 ATS off a SU win.  Despite Pittsburgh having corresponding positive trends, they play Sunday with a 1-5-1 ATS mark on Sunday after a MNF encounter.  This spot calls out Cincinnati!

Note, computer problems, analysis should restart Monday afternoon. Sorry, Brad.

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5* UCLA -3, not higher (169) over BYU (H) @ 10:15 Eastern

Have great respect for QB Josh Rosen of UCLA and his playmates in this difficult setting out in Provo.  Last year in California the Cougars were catching doubles and almost won the whole game, before going down in a 24-23 heap.  BYU is coming off a 9-4 season returning 15 starters.  They defeated (-1) Arizona in Glendale 18-16, then dropped a heart breaking 20-19 battle at Utah, while catching three plus.  To say the least they have driven their fans looney quite early.  UCLA finished 8-5 last year, and brings back 13 starters, 9 on defense.  In game #1 they lost to Texas A&M on the road in OT 31-24.  Against (-26) UNLV, the Bruins pranced to a 42-21 win.  In both cases there were minus signs next to their supporter’s financial statements, and here the Bruins open -1 vs. BYU, but the hard heads have pushed it to -3 this Thursday afternoon.  And, the basic trends behind the game favor BYU who is 4-0 ATS at home L4 times out.  However, we really LOVE UCLA who is off an easy encounter versus lesser UNLV, while the Cougars show off that 1-point war on the road.  Since we’ve checked out the BYU secondary, feel QB Rosen has a superior edge over the opposing stop troops…UCLA 30 BYU 20.

10* Texas State +31 or higher over Arkansas

LETDOWN THEORY GAME OF THE MONTH

No doubt the 2-0 'Hogs have the offense to score most every position versus smallish TSU.  In fact, the last time they laid -31 was in game #1 of last season winning 48-13 over UTEP.  However, the 'Hogs had Toledo next, so there was no look ahead scenario, whereas this time there is much more to ponder with Texas A&M on-deck.  Talk about a revenge game!  Arkansas has lost 4 straight to TAM, as the Aggies are one of the circled games for coach Bielema's troops.  When go back and review the last five games prior to Texas A&M, you will find the 'Hogs have come up short in the money category going 1-4 ATS.  Look for the 'Hogs at home to jump out quickly and coast to marginal win over the Bobcats, who show off a week of rest. 

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK...Missouri +7

The line tension all week has been with the 'Dawgs realizes that Chubb is healthy and running.  But, the Tigers have lost back-to-back games to this squad and surely needs emotional lift for the games ahead, and they are at home.  Granted Mizzou scored 61 last week on hapless Eastern Michigan, and is not reasoning we focused upon.  Instead, it's conference bounce back, the home field and the fact, the Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS after scoring 40 plus.  Good Luck.

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3* Tulane+ (200) over Navy @ 7:00 Eastern

Looking at the Wake Forest stat sheets in their early games with Tulane and Duke, we feel good that the Greenies will be able to move the football on the Navy defense, despite a unit having 7 returning starters.  In our minds Tulane will not only give the Middies a better game than UConn (11-26 L3) but, win SU.  UConn last week couldn’t run the football against Navy, Tulane’s diversified running game will make this encounter a down for down stress filled battle in Louisiana.  Remember Navy has just one returning starter on offense, Tulane has 5 with a solid bunch of contributors.  Last week against lesser Southern University the Greenies finally got their offense untracked.  This psychological up-tick should help with the confidence level of the team and first year coach Willie Fritz.  Last year Navy (-25) defeated Tulane 31-14 in Annapolis, that was after back-to-back disheartening wipe outs by Temple 49-10 and Houston 42-7 for the Greenies.  When playing Tulane last year Navy was showing off a 41-24 beating by Notre Dame, so the Middies were sky high at home.  The line has trickled down since the Sunday night opener of -11 with the public becoming aware of the competitiveness of Tulane, and the fact the triple option run by coach Fritz will cause interior issues on defense.  As a reminder there is a 100% estimate of thunderstorms and rain on Saturday in New Orleans…TAKE THE POINTS!

10* Northern Illinois +11 over San Diego State

LETDOWN THEORY APPLICATION

BDS...We couldn't pass this up knowing the Aztecs show off their California upset in a real offensive show.  However, they now go on road (cross country) to play in Illinois against what I call a square football team.  Look they show off being down in Florida 48-17 by SF.  Rod Carey was 8-6 last season but, his unit, as the decided underdog, is simply getting too many points at home.  HC Carey had 43 games coming into this season, and he knows how to jack up his squad. Granted this same squad did lose their MAC Title game last year so, they now have a chance to regain some "Mo" while shocking the public dollars.  NIU has 13 starters returning, therefore, sufficient experience to win the whole game.   Do you think the kids from California want to visit Illinois on a Saturday, when they could riding the waves?

10* JETS +1 (101) over Buffalo @ 8:25 Eastern
AFC THURSDAY GAME OF THE MONTH
Brad Diamond Sports
Yes, Rex Ryan and his Bills have defeated the Jets in 5 straight games.  However, can't even suggest the home team considering they dribbled through 178 yards of total offense against the stout Baltimore defense.  They managed just 11 first downs last week. The Jets played a more talented team in Cincinnati, but lost a buster 23-22. Right now the Jets are higher on our power ranking chart and seem to have sufficient enough defense to limit RB McCoy who slashed them for 112 yards on this same field last November. Also, the Jets defense pressured QB Dalton of Cincinnati in week #1. That's key, putting pressure on the Bills passing game that couldn't throw down field last week against the Ravens.  The Bills are 7-18-1 ATS when they go for under 90 yards rushing in their last game. New York comes in a solid 5-1-1 ATS in week #2 and 6-2-1 ATS vs. the AFC East.  With New York defensive line starting to improve, we'll back the Jets to knock off Rex and company.

10* CINCINNATI +7 or 7-1/2 over Houston

This situation fits into reverse angle set of games with the type of offense the Bearcats they should be able to take this to the wire.  We would love to have +7-1/2 instead of the flat 7, but we'll take the points considering the overall handicap.  Good Luck!

5* SAN FRANCISCO+3 over LA

Another historic game on the west coast with the Rams moving back after 21 years in STL.  Although favor a unit with a relocation angle, especially in an old rivalry, still can't trust the inconsistent Rams.  When you figure no adores Chip Kelly any longer since moving to the pro ranks, it unthinkable going with the Duck Dandy.  However, this long and historic series seems to favor the Niners on MNF.  Remember SF is 24-6 ATS on Monday night and 5-0 ATS in week #1 fights.  LA with a good coach still can't avoid the turnover with their 3-12 ATS record in week #1 sets. Good Luck!

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5* Miami (6-10) +10-1/2 (471) over Seattle (11-7)…NFL GAME OF THE WEEK @ 4:05 EASTERN

Not afraid to go into the teeth of the Seahawks den knowing we have a Dolphins unit who will come to play for four quarters no matter the score.  Surely, we believe that line assertions -7-1/2 to -10-1/2 have the public thinking blowout, but we simply don’t agree.  The Dolphins finished 6-10 SU last season, exited the coach and now the franchise has invested in first year mentor, and former OC, Adam Gase.  He has a difficult venue to begin his head coaching tenure playing at Seattle and facing the experienced Pete Carroll (7th year) who is 68-40 SU in his coaching career.  The Seahawks lost in the playoffs 31-24 to Carolina, and are anxiously ready to erase the stigma from that game. Last year Seattle was 5-3 SU @ home and 4-4 ATS. Miami went 3-6 SU & ATS in road games last season, but the Dolphins seem more excited about this game with their new HC.    In their three road wins last season, they defeated Washington in week #1, Philadelphia and New England in the final week of the season.  This preseason they appear more satisfied with the continued development of quarterback Tannehill (4,288) who is coming off a nice stat year.  Remember, Miami is 5-1 SU & ATS against the superior Seahawks, and I won’t discount their resolve today knowing their opening against difficult odds CenturyLink Field.  The value for this handicapper is with the points and the Dolphins.

373...10* UNC over Illinois @ 7:30 Eastern
Last year North Carolina defeated the Illini 48-14 on their home field. The Tar Heels have won all three games in the series SU.  The line opened -10-11 approximately, and the public has been on the TAKE all week, as the Heels now -7 this morning.  Smell a trap? You bet!  The Fighting Illini have been hurt by graduations and injuries in their defense and now return only 4 starters on that side of the ball. On offense they should put up points considering the home field and their 52-3 win over FCS unit Murray State last week.  However, we note UNC was 11-3 last year tying a record, and bring back 14 starters frustrated from a bowl loss to powerful Baylor 49-38.  They averaged 40+ last year, and gave SEC, Georgia all they could handle last week in Atlanta. But, some analyst's down on the 'Heels?  Finally, North Carolina has now lost back-to-back games to Class units in Baylor and Clemson (ACC Title Game), and should rebound, even on the road, against a defensively challenged football team 31-14.

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3* (383) BYU+ over Utah @ 7:30 Eastern

Realize there has been substantial money bet on the Cougars out in Las Vegas last night, but still prefer this unit as one of the more dangerous in America with 15 returning starters and experienced QB Hill leading the offense.  Last week BYU went into Arizona and won SU 18-16 over Rich Rod and 15 returning starters, quite an accomplishment.  Utah shutout FCS unit Southern Utah 24-0 limiting their offense to just under 260 yards overall, but again an FCS school.  No doubt this traditional holy war has more relativeness for the Utes who will come to play at home.  However, this is a major REVENGE GAME for the visitor knowing they lost to Utah in the Las Vegas bowl last season.  Plus, the Cougars have lost 5 straight to the Utes, and desperately need to turn the heat up in Salt Lake City this evening to keep their preseason projections in play.  This encounter comes down a late score and a SU and ATS winner for the foe who can move the football on the ground.  BYU has made changes on the offensive line because of injuries, so we are keeping this play as an APPRECIATION order for our clients, thinking it will still be a nail-bitter.

10* ARKANSAS STATE+ over Auburn

This is a play against the War Eagle with coach Malzhan being a former coach at Arkansas State, and most likely not trying to step on their faces.  Granted Auburn lost a tough call last week to Clemson, but they have A&M next week?  Last year Malzhan faced three non-conference types before an SEC opponent, and did NOT cover the spread.  Mental here all Arkansas State as they steal cash from the War Eagle backers.  LOVE THIS GAME!

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3* Colorado State (350) -10 over UTSA @ 4:00 Eastern

The home standing Rams come off a 44-7 squashing by arch-rival Colorado, as the Buffs ran for 260 yards and almost 600 yards in total offense.  UTSA under former LSU assistant coach Frank Wilson defrocked FCS Alabama State 26-13, but has key RB Williams in limbo for this encounter.  Most observers did not realize (in value) how much CSU lost on defense from last season.  Colorado rolled out to a 31-0 lead at half-time augmented by a fumble-recovery touchdown in the first quarter which pretty much told the story of the football game.  Last year CSU struggled against UTSA on the road surviving 33-31, but the Rams were really flat early (down 17-9) in the first-half.  QB Stevens threw three touches to recoil his unit.  This past Saturday both Stevens (4th year junior) and Bauta had problems driving against Colorado simply because they were “forced” to pass after falling behind.  We note, prior to the UTSA game CSU had lost back-to-back heart breakers to Minnesota (20-23) and Colorado (24-27).  With the embarrassing loss versus Colorado, expect head coach Bobo of State to have his unit ready at home. CSU is 6-1 ATS laying double-digits and 8-3-1 ATS in non-conference battles.  After last week and this the home opener in beautiful Fort Collins…CSU 30 UTSA 17

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5* East Carolina (332) over NC State @ 12:00

Last season Brad Diamond Sports finished 22-13-1 in the famous Wise Guys’ Contest…63% ATS.  We have been the champion twice in our career which is quite an accomplishment when you consider the elite list of handicappers in the contest every season.  My best bet in the contest, if you missed it, was East Carolina noting line value and a reputable old system that projects out currently at 27-6 ATS.  Critical, NC State has had difficulties on grass of late going 1-7 ATS.  Also, the Wolfpack is 0-4 ATS off a SU win.  The Pack has averaged 6.9 wins per season over the last four campaigns and brings back 14 starters from a team that lost to UNC (you know many NCS fans are restless) in 2015, and no bowl game to boot.  ECU is an unknown quantity, somewhat, with new head coach Scottie Montgomery taking the reins.  Montgomery has coached both on the college and pro (Steelers DBC) level, but what I like most he was the OC at Marshall which is a school that normally produces diversified offenses.  To solidify our notes, no one should doubt the Pirates resolve today considering they have a senior quarterback Nelson (Rutgers transfer) leading the attack, while possessing more speed on defense.  ECU brings back 11 starters, but apparently with a more diversified attack, and a positive mindset behind Montgomery.  Remember both schools easily defeated FCS units last week.  We note the Pirates have been hot in Vegas when facing ACC types…6-0 ATS L6.  East Carolina leads the series 4-1 ATS…EAST CAROLINA+

10* Denver +3 or +3-1/2 (452) over Carolina

452...10* DENVER +3, try to buy 1/2 point to get to three-and-a half. No matter, we like the Broncos as SB Champion is getting points at HOME!  Granted no Manning, but recall 24-10 SB win by Denver illustrated their defense more than the attack unit. Also, the losing unit in Super Bowl virtually never starts strong documented by a 1-14 ATS mark in game #1 of the season. Good Luck this year!

5* MIAMI OHIO+ over Iowa

CFB LETDOWN THEORY OF THE WEEK

BDS

Must have +3, nothing less, Brad

10* ARIZONA (279) over Houston (Sunday) @ 4:00 Eastern

NFL PRESEASON GAME OF THE YEAR

Believe it or not we have another unit (Arizona) that has lost back-to-back games SU & ATS in the preseason.  Opposing Houston who is 2-0 SU & ATS during the early period.  In the Arizona losses (19-3, 31-10) the offense has been from hunger with only 13-points on the docket.  The word out of Arizona is the offensive unit being lackluster will be getting more reps than the first two games combined.  In fact, the first unit offense has played just 4 series this preseason.  There is no doubt QB Carson Palmer of Arizona needs the reps with some injuries at the wide out position.  However, the unit is not devoid of threats down the field, including the tight end position.  Last week (8/21) the Texans defeated the struggling New Orleans Saints 16-9.  But, we note the Saints defense shutdown Houston’s offense in the second half holding the opposition to 58 total yards.   Also, the Texans will once again play without their leader J. J. Watt.   Arizona is still listed as the underdog, so please buy this early.  And, remember the Cardinals are 9-2 ATS off a SU loss versus a unit off a SU win.  Arizona should be highly motivated here!

5* PITTSBURGH +3, not lower...over New Orleans @ 8:00 Easter

NFLX GAME OF THE GAME....BDS

As a special note, Saturday we will have our 10* NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR.  Here we know Big Ben will play tonight versus the Saints down in New Orleans.  Sorry fantasy fans, RB Bell is once again out, and most likely will not be back until game #4 of the regular season.  As a team the Steelers are 0-2 SU & ATS losing 17-30 and 0-17 to Philly last week.   Obviously, when a unit comes off back-to-back losses they need from the emotional standpoint, a reversal of form.  Seeing Big Ben in the lineup will surely spur the offense, and RB DeAngelo Williams (11 touchdowns) will help drive the offense.  This situation is a "must win" for Pittsburgh since game #4 of the preseason most units run through the motions as to not injure their best players.  Pittsburgh plays Carolina next week.  The Saints we know have problems on the offensive line, and you can "bet" the Pittsburgh defense will be charging the line of scrimmage tonight.  Now, remember you must have +3 as this is where all the stated "value" of the handicap draws from tonight...TAKE THE POINTS!

3* Mets (Colon) -1-1/2 runs over Phillies (Morgan)

Normally, would not use Mets laying runs, especially against the Phillies who have been a decent unit in that realm of reality this season.  However, Philadelphia is 0-8 with lefty Morgan off a team loss and 0-5 with the hurler in game #1 of a series.   The Mets show 9-2 in Friday calls with RHP Colon and 22-7 in game #1 with the hurler.   Granted the Mets are 1-4 vs. LHP of late, but the Phillies lefty Morgan was crushed by NY last year.  In fact, in 5-2/3 innings the hurler allowed 7 hits and 5 earned runs...4 home runs!  Lay the wood.

(427) 4* New Orleans +3 over Houston @ 8:00 Eastern

Last week J.J. Watt ate up the 49ers in the Houston 24-13 win.  This time around the defensive mastermind will not be in the lineup.  New Orleans rolls in off a 34-22 loss to New England back east.  Believe the Saints will come to play with a number of starting positions being worked out in the exhibition sets.  Critical to this encounter considering +3 (don’t go any lower) is adjustment PK Connor Barth who is taking the chores from Kai Forbath tonight.  Understand coach Sean Payton has been showing confidence in the kid the last couple of days on the practice field.  Also, last week against Billy B. the New Orleans running attack was shutdown.  Fully expect veteran running back Ingram to solidify his reputation with a rebound performance.  On the other side of ball, the Houston quarterbacks looked shaky last week, so right now give the fundamentals to the New Orleans side of the ball.  In addition, the players want to bring home a victory for their ravaged fan base after the resulting deficits caused by the recent record breaking flood and storms. Yesterday we lost out with Miami, as Dak looked awesome at QB for Dallas, the SEC product gives the Cowboys a huge boost in their QB insurance department.  So, now including that loss road underdogs are 13-5 ATS L18 games on the preseason schedule.  NO is 10-3 SU in preseason (Peyton), while, the Texans are 2-7 ATS L9. Remember too, this is a revenge situation for the Saints who were defeated by Houston 24-6 last regular season.

3* Denver +1 over Chicago

Not afraid to go with Broncos in the "after Peyton" cycle about to take off in Denver.  These two have played only 8 games since 1987.  The last meeting saw Denver 17-15 at Chicago in November 2015.  The Broncos finished off their championship season in 2015 with 5 straight wins to take the Super Bowl in February.  The Bears hobbled into the off-season winning 2-of-their-last -7 games on the schedule.  Against the spread the Bears come in 6-19-1 ATS at home.  Coach Fox is 27-28-1 ATS in preseason, while coach Kubiak shows 22-12-2 ATS in the early goes.  Also, Denver is 4-0 ATS in week #1 of the exhibition season. Remember Kubiak is a solid coach and will look to begin with a motivational win without Peyton Manning.

4* PHILLIES +1-1/2 RUNS over Miami

As we predicted the Marlins behind the "G" man came up big last night in an easy win over visiting Philadelphia.  This time around we are using the Phillies with Eflin (3-3, 3.40) in a bounce back encounter with +1-1/2 runs of support.  In his last outing, the hurler threw a 9 inning gem at Pittsburgh allowing just 3 hits and no runs.  The Mets bring lefty Conley (6-5, 3.58) to the box off 6 innings against the Mets surrendering just 2 earned runs.  However, it seems recently when the hurler is strong and forges a quality start, he tends to have a fall off 1-4 L5 scenario's.  The Marlins come in 0-4 after their opponent allows 5 or more runs and 1-5 on Wednesday.  Take the scripted value and +1-1/2 run with Philadelphia.

4* STL +1-1/2 (962) Runs over LA Dodgers @ 7:15 Eastern

Going for the value with +1-1/2 runs backing Leake of St. Louis.  The right hander is off one of his better outings throwing 6 innings against San Diego surrendering just 1 earned run.  In contrast, the Dodgers use RHP Maeda was just smashed by Arizona for 5 earned runs and 7 hits in 4-1/3 innings of work.  Granted the hurler is off 5+ days rest (5-1), but still can't trust the import after his last three outings carrying a 1-2 mark and a 5.87 ERA.  The Cards are a perfect 7-0 vs. the NLW and 5-0 against a unit with a losing road record...STL +1-1/2 Runs.

4* KC (Kennedy) +1-1/2 Runs over Cleveland (Carrasco) @ 2:15 Eastern

Hard press to go against (Carrasco) Cleveland here, but the Royals RHP Kennedy has shown a dual personality this season.  He has a super 3-0 mark at home with a 1.46 ERA at home, while going 6-7 with a 3.86 ERA overall.   In this series KC is 5-1 at home and 40-16 overall (home) vs. >.500 unit.   Cleveland's hurler Carrasco (2.49) has put together a nice 6-3 record, but he is 0-1 with a 4.09 ERA against KC this season.  The Indians are 14-6 vs. RHP of late.  Still, prefer the Royals in this bounce back position at home considering Kennedy's ERA at home and the KC record of 4-1 off a loss.  We are taking the +1-1/2 runs now and the current pricing.  GL.

4* Minnesota +1-1/2 Runs over Detroit

Granted the Tigers have taken 7-of-8 vs. the Twins and use RHP Verlander (3.14) who has won 16 of 24 against Minnesota.  Still, there is some creditable numbers that point to Santana and the Twins with some help in the runs column.   The Twins have won 4 straight against RHP and an amazing 10-of-12 on the road versus quality units with a +.500 mark.  This is a clear indicator Minnesota gets up for the better foes on foreign soil.   Santana in his career has done solid work against Detroit with a 9-3 record and a 3.27 ERA.  Detroit with Verlander are 4-10 vs. ALC and 4-9 against losing units...Minny +1-1/2.

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(914) 4* Kansas City +1-1/2 Runs (Volquez) over Cleveland (Kluber) @ 8:15 Eastern

The Indians (54-37) have a net +18 game advantage over the home standing Royals (46-45).  And, they have been playing more consistent ball of late on the road…10-of-13.   In addition, Cleveland comes in 20-7 off a win.  They use veteran RHP Kluber (9-8, 3.61) who shows off 8 solid innings vs. the Yankees allowing just 5 hits and 1 earned run.  He is 5-4 (3.88) on the road this season.  Kluber in his career is 6-6 with a 3.45 ERA vs. the Royals. The Indians, however, are 0-8 on Monday’s with Kluber and 4-13 in game #1 starts. Lastly, Cleveland with Kluber come in 0-5 in road starts in the series.   Tonight KC will use RHP Volquez (8-8, 4.85) who throws off 6 innings vs. Seattle surrendering 6 hits and 3 earned runs.  KC has backed Volquez at home going 20-6 L26 starts and 29-13 as a unit overall at home.   The Royals show RED HOT at 14-2 at home against the ALC foes…Kansas City.

4* LA -1-1/2 Runs (Kershaw) over Pittsburgh (Kuhl) @ 8:05 Eastern
Check out the ESPN angle this evening when LA looks to win their initial game in the series going up against the Pittsburgh young stud RHP Kuhl (6-2, 2.58); who throws his initial outing of his baseball career.  The Dodgers bring ace Kershaw (11-1, 1.57) to the mound generating much interest even at $2.75 in Vegas.  However, we'll use the RL to back the lefty's perfect 4-0 mark with a 1.87 ERA.  He is 2-2 with a 2.90 ERA versus the Pirates in his career, holding them to a .205 BA.  Kershaw is 3-0 with a 2.01 ERA in his last three starts. The Dodgers show 17-5 with Kershaw on the road versus a losing club. LA has won 7-of-10 losing back-to-back games in Pittsburgh.  Pittsburgh, no matter, is still on a negative 3-7 streak L10 on the diamond.  They show 21-18 at home, while the Dodgers are 18-20 on the road.  LA comes in 21-8 after scoring less than 2 runs in their last game, 38-18 game #3 of a series. Pittsburgh has won 7 straight at home in the series, so this has huge revenge status for the visitor.  The Pirates help with an 0-8 record in game #3 of a series. Add the psychological factors that Pittsburgh's Kuhl is throwing into (ESPN and Kershaw), and yuou have a strong possibility of being overcome by emotion trying to remain consistent throughout his mound outing.

4* Philadelphia (+1-1/2 runs) over Toronto

Cashed early runs line game yesterday with Arizona over LA.  Tonight the Phillies use RHP Nola against Toronto.  Nola (5-5, 2.98) was just rocked on the road by red hot Washington allowing 4 earned runs 7 hits in 3-2/3 innings.  So, he should be eager for a rebound with additional rest time.  The Phillies are 0-4 with Nola off 4 days rest. Toronto sends LHP Happ to the hill who was just hit hard by the Orioles for 4 runs in 7 innings of work.  The veteran has thrown 17-2/3 innings against Philadelphia holding them with a 1.56 ERA, although he did give up 10 walks.  His control could be an issue this evening, especially since this is a lesser foe.  Philadelphia checks in 5-0 in IL play versus LHP and 4-1 in home games.  Toronto goes into action 1-6 with in Happ's road starts versus a losing home unit.  If young star Joseph breaks a recent slump, the Phillies could win the whole game. 

3* Arizona (Corbin) +1-1/2 Runs over LA (Kershaw)

Another day time edition, but this situation is all about the runs line.  First off, the Dodgers have had a mediocre season thus far.  The lines makers have accrued the unit extra respect when their three best hurlers hit the bump.  My gut feeling here is Arizona using the runs formula to generate extra support for the situation.  No doubt the D'backs lefty Corbin has been inconsistent and was touched up for 4 runs against Miami  in 6-1/3 innings last week.  Of course, ace Kershaw of LA shows off a solid eight innings of work allowing 5 hits and 2 runs challenging arch rival San Francisco.  Quite possibly he might formulate a rare letdown against 29-38 Arizona.  In fact, the Dodgers are 2-6 with hurler in Arizona.  And, the D'backs are 6-1 versus a hurler with a WHIP of 1.15 and 4-1 versus lefties of late. 

Play on: 5* (901) Chicago (Lester) -1-1/2 over Philadelphia (Morgan) @ 7:05 Eastern

The Phillies have won 2-of-3 over the 26-31 Milwaukee Brewers, and look to build their resume against 39-15 Chicago the most dominating unit in baseball this season.  The mound opponents suggest a mismatch favoring the Cubs with lefty Lester (6-3, 2.29) who shows off a 9 inning complete game holding the opposition to just one earned run.  Lester has shut down the challengers holding them to under 2 runs on eight occasions.  When the veteran is hot, he is extremely difficult to score upon, especially Philadelphia with a 1.71 ERA and a 5-0 career mark.  Key for Lester is limiting youngster Joseph and leadoff hitter Herrera. On a team basis Chicago is 16-9 versus the runs line and 9-2 against lefties. The Phillies courageously use lefty Morgan (1-4, 7.07) who is 0-3 at home with a 7.84 ERA.  He was just nicked for 9 hits and 6 earned runs in six innings of work.  The hurler has a tendency to become frustrated with his arm angles. The Phillies are 0-4 off a win, and 5-22 Monday’s…Chicago 8 Philadelphia 2.

5* Washington +9-1/2 or 10 over Atlanta

Believe the visitor has an outstanding chance covering the inflated number this afternoon.  After all, the Atlanta (6-1, 5-2) winning margin the last five encounters has been -8.  Atlanta has won 5 straight games, Washington (2-6, 2-6) down three straight.  Washington comes in off a 98-72 loss to Chicago which helps from the line standpoint. Atlanta has won 5 straight in this series, therefore we look for a not so focused effort from the more talented unit.  We'll take the points with Washington this afternoon...Stephen Diamond (Brad Diamond Sports).

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Play on:  10* Cleveland +6 (501) over Golden State @ 9:00 Eastern

NBA PLAYOFF GAME OF THE MONTH

Note, you must have plus 6 here, or there is no eligible selection. The 69-27 Cavaliers have a major advantage of rest and play the Warriors who went through a grueling series versus Oklahoma City.  Golden State shows an amazing 85-14 SU with a dominating 25-5 record in games versus the Eastern Conference.  The major key for the opposing King James and company is playing the game one possession at a time, trying to limit mistakes eliminating break points for the Warriors.  Golden State comes in #1 in points off turnovers.  At home the Warriors 48-3, but 1-5 ATS L6 vs. the Eastern Conference.  The Cavs play 29-19 on the road this season, however, show with the more effective defense, while being rested.  The road unit in the series is 4-1 ATS.  With the Cavaliers 16-5 ATS vs. .600+ units, the play is Cleveland.