261
4* Houston+ over Carolina
NFL KEY ROAD WARRIOR
BDS
Not afraid to challenge the number and the Panthers at home. Remember they are without Luke today, and play into a unit with a changing starter at QB in Mallet. He was the starter before the much talked about issue that moved him into #2 behind Hoyer. Hoyer was horrible last week early as the Chiefs buried the Texans, as we predicted. Mallet led Houston late for a few scores. Okay, Carolina did win last week on the road 20-9, but managed just 105 yards rushing

5* STANFORD+ over USC 

CFB REVENGE GAME OF THE WEEK
Not only our revenge special for this week, but our key release in the Wise Guys contest. This is double revenge for the Cardinal after losing by three to USC in each of the last two seasons. Stanford has looked impressive early going 2-0 SU, while showing 9-1 ATS before Oregon State. QB Kessler of the Trojans will be an issue for the Stanford defense, but we look for the visitor to control the tempo of the game throughout. Remember chalk in this series 0-7-1 ATS.

10* PITTSBURGH+ OVER IOWA

BIG-10 UPSET ALERT TOP PLAY

BDS

10* KENTUCKY over Florida

SEC TOP PLAY ALERT

BDS

YOU CAN SAVE BY PURCHASING OUR SEC TRIPLE CROWN PACKAGE.

09/19/15

Play on:  4* South Carolina+ 17 (145) over Georgia @ 6:00 Eastern

Carolina was clearly waxed last week vs. Kentucky 26-22, yet at Columbia, it was a disgrace.  By the way, that’s back-to-back wins for the ‘Cats vs. SC.  Now QB Mitch is gone for SC with an injury, so QB Orth must start in what is clearly a MUST WIN SEC game for the Gamecocks.  South Carolina suffered lacking “O” talent, only 4 RS on that side of the ball.  They do have 8 experienced defensive personnel, including 7 seniors.  SC is 4-1 ATS as an underdog of late and 4-1 SU in the series.

Georgia is 2-0 SU after dispensing of Vandy 31-14, but Chubb and company managed only 105 yards rushing.  Last years’ Commodore defense gave away 33+ points a game, while the attacking offenses managed 184 yards per game on the ground.  My point, if the SC can run the football successfully, they will truly challenge the “expected” winner Georgia.  The ‘Dawgs have ‘Bama two weeks down the road, don’t think they are not already perfaying the landscape. Alabama last played Georgia in 2012 winning 32-28 in the SEC Title Game.  We know the ‘Dawgs are 29-6 SU at home, but come 11-11-1 ATS in Athens. As a chalk in conference…24-33 ATS, 2-6 ATS in their first SEC game at home.  Just for VALUE, feel SOUTH CAROLINA!

4* NOTRE DAME+ over Georgia Tech

CFB TRAP GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

Analysis to follow Friday!

10* Auburn+ over LSU

SEC TOP PLAY ALERT

BDS

CFB TOP PLAY UPSET ALERT

Play on: 10* Louisiana Tech +10 nothing lower, over Kansas St...We note, 13 RS for the Bulldogs off Southern and WKU. No doubt, Kst their toughest opposition thus far. Kst has just 12 starters back, and now have frosh QB starting.Granted Bill Snyder is a great coach, but he has week off coming, b/4 opening in conferece vs. OkSt. Tech is 4-1 ATS in the second of BB road games, and was successful last season at 5-0 ATS as an underdog, while going 5-0 ATS off a SU loss. The loss to Western Kentucky gives all sorts of value. LT is monster 17-4-1 ATS on the road vs. a winning record at home by the chalk. Remember Kst appears to be somewhat over valued this early in the season considering the drop-off in returning starters.

5* AIR FORCE+ over Michigan State

BIG-10 TRIPLE CROWN PACKAGE

BDS

10* DENVER+3..nothing less over KC

I know Andy Reid better than any coach in the NFL, and I can tell you this is not his spot. Look at all the times in the past that Reid has suffered ATS losses laying a small price at home. Plus the KC victory was misleading vs. over valued Houston. On the other side, Denver beat a SUPER BOWL entry Baltimore holding them to 69 yards rushing. Granted the Broncos did not have a great day rushing the football, but remember Baltimore had the #4 rush defense last season (88.3). I love dogs in the early going that have the advantage at the line of scrimmage. TECHS: KC -6 or under, a prolific 1-11 ATS, while Denver shows 11-1 ATS on the road vs. AFC West units...TAKE THE POINTS.

091315

Play on:  4* Jacksonville (474) +3-1/2 over Carolina

Realize the QB difference, but like the home field, the price and all the emotion the Jaguars will throw into this all important game #1 encounter.  Feel the offense for Carolina is somewhat limited because of recent injuries, and therefore must focus on the talents of QB Cam Newtown.  From the talent department the Jags improved from 2013-to-2014, and now have a viable QB in Bortles who continues to show his developing talent.  I’m not saying Jacksonville will trade points with Carolina, but if their defense is much improved as our reports indicate, a SU win here would be no surprise…The Jags are 8-3 ATS the first game of the season, 7-3 in that role as an underdog.  Carolina is 0-6 ATS in game #1 as a favorite.

091215

Play on:  5* Temple+ (321) over Cincinnati @ 8:00 Eastern

This was our BEST BET submitted on Monday in the national Wise Guys’ Contest.  As we predicted last week Temple would surprise everyone vs. Penn State considering head coach Rhule brought back 19 starters.  Temple has lost to Cincinnati 14-6, 38-20 and 34-10 the last three seasons.  Revenge does not even count the anger flowing inside the Owls program.  If QB Walker of Temple stays under control, fully expect SU win on the road.  The Bearcats led last week with a cupcake and won easily.  Cincinnati returns only 13 starters, 5 on defense.  Look for the Temple running game to once again control tempo. The Bearcats are 1-3-1 ATS as a single lined chalk at home, Owls 6-1 ATS after Penn State.

5* Texas -14 not higher...over Rice

Talented differential favoring the 'Horns, a pissed Texas unit mind you, after being throttled last week by Notre Dame in front of a national audience.  Fully expect HC Charlie Strong to have the visitor SKY HIGH to go against a CUSA school returning just 9 starters, 3 on defense. UT had trouble scoring last week vs. the strong and quick defense of ND, not here. The visitor is 0-4 ATS in this series, with the chalk 5-1 ATS L6...Also, Rice 4-12 ATS vs. Big-12 schools!

4* East Carolina+ over Florida

As we did last week, looking for DD underdogs that have value vs. an over stated foe. Despite the injury on offense, we see the Pirates making a game of this considering they did the same last season against South Carolina in a comparable spot. Florida has their first SEC game next with improving Kentucky, so their emotions just many not be focused for four quarters...Good Luck!

5* Tennessee over Oklahoma...SEC Game of the Week

Classic encounter down in Knoxville with national title implications...OU crushed hapless Akron 41-3, UT smashed talented Bowling Green (15 RS) who has a solid trigger and receivers 59-20. Oklahoma shows 1-4 ATS off a SU loss, 3-7 ATS L10 on the board.  Tennessee is 6-1 ATS on grass and 5-1 ATS at home.  The Vols only weakness right now is an injured secondary, so they will rely heavily on their vaunted pass rush to put pressure, while reducing the angles of QB Mayfield (388) who had a solid outing vs. lesser Akron.  We note, big time RB Perrine was slowed in that huge win. No matter, Tennessee has the running attack and the improving OL to create gaps for Hurd and Kamara who ran large last week.  With this being a REVENGE (34-10..2014) game have much more respect for home standing UT, looking for national focus...remember 18 starters return.

10* Georgia Southern+ over Western Michigan

CFB LETDOWN THEORY APPLIED

BDS

Last week Western gave a great go of it against mighty Michigan State, coming up with a difficult emotional loss.  The next big game for WM is in two weeks when they play hated Ohio State. So, it will be a while before the school faces a unit carrying an up psychology (next Murray State) Georgia Southern was shutout by West Virginia last week 44-0!  So, why the short post? Love this situation...Good Luck.  

10* UCONN -7-1/2 over Army

CFB REVENGE GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

Okay, we know Army exited the Huskies last season to the tune of 35-21 laying -3 on the road. UConn brings 14 starters, 8 on defense doing a solid job vs. talented Villanova last week. Army we thought would handle Fordham (not so) last week considering the Rams were competing with a reshuffled and changing defense?  The line opened -3-1/2 here, and climbed to -13, -14 considering the aformentioned note. Fordham won SU 37-35 with their "D" giving back almost 400 yards of total offense, 256 on the ground to the Cadets.  UConn beat 'Nova 20-15, containing the 'Cats offensively (303).  How talented is Villanova? Despite losing, they are ranked #2 in the FCS this week.  Since, the 'Huskies are in friendly confines this week, and face an Army unit 2-19 ATS on the road...UCONN!

091115

Play on: 4* (303) Miami Florida over Florida International @ 8:00 Eastern

Can’t help but, see this is as a blowout for superior ‘Canes.  Miami Florida is 6-0 ATS in SU lined wins!  Further, the last time these two played was in 2013 and Miami won easily 34-6, but were laying -31.  As you can see there’s been a drastic line reduction.  MU shows with just 11 returning starters, but have solid skilled people to take advantage of the FAU (3-9) defense that allowed 34+ points per game last season. Miami plays in the ACC (FAU…CUSA) which allows for a major differential in SOS. Plus HC Al Golden is under fire down in Florida and will need a huge season to hold his job.  FAU lost to Tulsa last week in OT and surrendered 618 yards defensively (smallish unit).  Realize the Owls are an outstanding unit as an underdog, but lines makers have simply over compensated…value Miami Fla!

4* Purdue+ over Marshall

The last time these two met was in 2012, Boilers won 51-41 laying 16...Herd grabbed the cash. Now the positioning has changed drastically with UM being a -7 chalk at the Westgate with the line opening at -8-1/2.  CUSA Herd return a solid bunch of 11 starters, but injuries of hurt in the spring and QB Cato (3,903) and 40 touchdowns passes have graduated.  The defense had their best year in quite sometime last time out with 8 starters holding the opposition to only 21 points-per-game...This is a much different cast now. Purdue brings 15 starters form a 3-9 team that I mind you plays in the Big-10. They have an edge QB today, but need the rushing game to step keeping UM "O" on the bench.  The defense allowed almost 32-points a game last year, but schedule much more difficult than the CUSA.  In addition, HC Hazell has had BB losing seasons of 1-11 and 3-9 as mentioned prior.  To say he is under fire, is an understatement, but they have a very rough schedule.  Granted the Herd has more speed here, but the adjustment at QB, injuries. Purdue was 4-1 ATS on the road last year and should be highly competitive this afternoon, at least covering the number...TAKE THE POINTS!

090515

10* (197) TEXAS +10 over Notre Dame @ 7:30 Eastern

Nationally televised encounter on FOX grabs the nation’s late night attention with Notre Dame on the agenda.  However, our power rating talent differential has the Irish by just 7 considering, UT has refueled with injured player’s returning and quality transfers.  Granted they come off a 6-7 season in Charlie Strong’s first year in Austin, but the cupboard is not bare.  The national realm of reality will give great respect to ND (+8-1/2) after beating LSU 31-28 in the Music City Bowl.  However, they did lose QB Golson who amassed 3,445 yards throwing the football, garnering 29 touchdowns.  Believe, this is an early season major concern for respected coach Kelly.  Texas is 3-1 ATS in game #1, ND 3-5-1 ATS.  Kelly is only 28-30-4 ATS in non-conference games and 17-19-4 ATS as a chalk L5 years.  Obviously, ND has been super at home 23-8 ATS to be exact, but they never have lost a more definitive player than Golson since Kelly has been in South Bend…and now must go from being an underdog vs. LSU to being a DD favorite in game #1…TAKE THE POINTS! 

Play on:  5* UL-Lafayette +17 over Kentucky @ 7:00 Eastern

LATE MONEY MOVE....no analysis

166

Play on: 4* Temple +7 over Penn State @ 3:30 Eastern

Rarely go against the Nits, especially versus an opponent they have owned SU historically.  However, the Owls of Temple have a legit shot at winning.  In our published Twitter (BradD_QPicks) notes we mentioned that HC Rhule has 19 starters returning, 10 on defense which held the opposition to 17.5 points on average.  Improving their ability to score consistently (23.1) is critical this season.  Penn State has 15 starters back from a 7-6 season that ended with a 31-30 win over Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl.  Prior Penn State had lost back-to-back games to Illinois and Michigan State.  In the 2014 Penn St. 30-13 win, the Owls were in the game going into the third quarter (6-3), but turnovers destroyed any chance of winning.   QB P. J. Walker threw 4 interceptions, so I fully expect to see this encounter being a low scoring game with each unit looking for control on the ground. Playing in Philadelphia and coming away with a win can only help recruiting for coach Rhule and the school, and that probability increases with this being game #1 of the season. The Owls are 4-0 ATS their first line game of the season and 7-4 ATS as a home dog.  Penn State does show 0-3-1 ATS L4 on the road and a PERFECT 0-3 ATS as a road chalk in their initial road game of the season.  In the closing, the Nits have dropped back-to-back games ATS in a game #1 situations the next season after losing SU in their final regular season game the prior season…Penn State lost to Michigan State in 2014.

Play on: 10* Virginia +19-1/2 over UCLA

Just like our other 10* today we are searching for value in the talent differentials to see how much of the spread booked is warranted.  Here is another situation where you will pay for the national publicity affored the chalk.  The Bruins have 17 starters back, but are replacing QB Hundley (3,155...QBR:152.7) with inexperience. Yes, having 10 offensive starters is a solid basis for beginnig the season, especially considering the Bruins went 10-3 SU, and show off a game #1 win in 2014 over this same Virginia (-20) 28-20 on the road. UCLA laid DD last season vs. Virginia, Memphis, Utah and Colorado...0-4 ATS.  Now they show w/o the trigger, Hundley.  The Bruins were just 2-4 ATS at home, and 8-8 ATS in non-conference, 31-35 ATS L5 seasons overall (2-3 ATS game #1 home). Virginia has 10 starters with QB Johns taking over for QB Lambert who transfered to Georgia...Johns had a higher efficiency rating than the latter.  The projected starting group on both sides of the ball has, at this writing, 18 upper class experienced players. The critical improvement to enhance that 5-7 record from last season, is the ability of the running game (3.7) to deplete time, control tempo during given periords of the game. For sure HC London (23-38) is under HUGE HEAT and needs a winning season and a few surprising upsets to enhance his star.  He is 11-6 as an UNDERDOG...TAKE THE POINTS!

3* KENT STATE+ over Illinois

Since game was PPD. and Brad Diamond Sports had additional research time, we have moved this to a system 3* APPRECIATION rating, the game was a FREE SELECTION Friday...Good Luck!

4* ARMY -3-1/2 over Fordham

Don't get to involved with FCS types, but a good unit in Patriot League entry Fordham.  HC Moorhead in his 4th year brings a 29-10 unit, 14-4 unit league wide into battle.  Going 11-3 SU is remarkable, but this team was gutted from last year losing quality players on both offense and defense.  Because of the road site, expect the Rams to try and control tempo with big time RB Chase Edmonds.  The reason, high flying QB Nebrich and his wide outs have graduated.  We hear a QB transfer from Marshall will get the call tonight.  That's never good news in initial stint in hostile territory.  The defense lost four really solid plays and the PK is gone too.  

Army shows off a 4-8 season, but 2nd year coach Jeff Monken is under some heat considering the Cadets have not had a winning season since 2010.   He does have 10 starters returning, and new QB Adam Bradshaw appears to be a very talented and athletic signal-caller that will run the option attack. If Army is to win and cover here they will need to improve on their points allowed (32.9) stat from 2014.  What will the Cadets defense is their familarity with the new 3-4 defense that was installed last season.  Where Army has a solid edge is on special teams with their coverability and speed. Last year Army (+3-1/2) defeated Fordham 42-31 at home prior to the Navy game...so, this time around there will be no other focus.  HUGE GAME FOR ARMY!

4* Hawaii+ over Colorado

No doubt differential talent compilation favoring Buffs, but Vegas shows respect withholding DD knowing public may ride that way , no matter.  Although Buffs have almost everyone back, we note that was from a 2-10 unit, losing by a -70 on the road in 2014. Make no mistake we respect Buffs who have a rough go every week, and show loaded with "O" talent.  But playing in PARADISE always difficult in week #1. If Hawaii is using USC gun Wittek at the trigger, this situation could be outright upset. Hawai is 9-4 ATS in non-conference....TAKE!

KNEE-JERK GAME OF THE WEEK

5* SOUTH CAROLINA -2-1/2 over North Carolina @ 6:00 Eastern

Okay, the houses around Columbia are starting to shake!  First off, the Gamecocks have now lost twice to Kentucky in the last five years.  Second the ‘Ol Ball Coach is aging after an unsatisfactory 7-6 season, but that was partly due to a rough SEC schedule that illustrated heart breaking close losses to the aforementioned Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee and Auburn.  In addition, SC did so with the talented Dylan Thompson (3,564) at quarterback who had 26 touchdowns vs. 11 interceptions…He is gone!  So,

Spurrier will lead with Connor Mitch who has no real game experience…tough nut for sure, in an opener at a neutral site against a unit (UNC) in 17-point revenge from a 27-10 loss in 2013.  Opposing Tar Heels show with 17 starters returning, 10 on offense. QB Williams (3,068) again runs the quicksilver group that averaged 33.2 points per game.  Just remember the UNC defense shadowed 39.0 points per outing…#56 nationally (390).   UNC finished 6-7 and LOST to Rutgers 40-21 in the Quick Lane Bowl.  The last time UNC played an SEC unit was in 2010 losing 30-24 to LSU.  For me the fundamental edge is the defensive side of the ball for SC which should be faster and more improved this time around, while showing with the #11 rating in total defense (315.5) from 2014, 4.65 yards per play.  Remember too, Spurrier is most dangerous when flying under the radar…the line opened SC -3, was quickly taken down to -2-1/2.  The ‘Ol Ball Coach is normally not a play laying money on the road, but the ‘Cocks are 13-7 ATS vs. non-conference types. And, 11-3-1 ATS -3 or under. Further, HC Larry Fedora of North Carolina in his 4th year is just 16-18-1 ATS overall and 2-5-1 ATS in non-conference.  UNC is 6-4 SU in game #1, while South Carolina is 9-1 SU.  If QB Mitch stays away from early turnovers fully expect the GAMECOCKS to survive…27-22.

5* Florida International +13 over Central Florida

This is our late move from the line standpoint as the number continues to deflate (excuse me Tom) on the Strip. This actually opened around 17 in August.  The Golden Panthers bring back 15 starters from a 4-8 SU season, a major change over the 1-11 card in 2013. FIU even showed improvement ATS going 8-4 to the number after a 4-8 season. They lost four games by three points or less and seem to be on the up-tick recruiting. How the Panthers win this SU is by controlling the tempo with their developing running attack that has shown a better OL this spring. The defense improved by 12 points per game last season and with 8 RS should be testy here. Central Florida is not to be taken lightly, however, they have just 9 RS and face a big timer at Stanford on the 12th. Normally, would not go against the savvy George O'Leary but, his club could be taking this pesky visitor to lightly..TAKE THE POINTS!

10* Phillies -1.30 +1-1/2 Runs over NY Mets

RUNS LINE TOP PLAY ALERT...BDS -8/26/15

Despite Philadelphia pitching being pounded on by the New York bats last two, love our situation here tonight with Eickhoff on the hill and +1-1/2 in the bill fold before the encounter even begins.  The young hurler for the Phillies is coming off a road assignment down in Miami where in 6 IP he gave up just 5 hits, and SO 5.  What about the hurler was his snap on the moving pitches other than his fast ball...pretty solid considering it was his first start...The Mets have never seen Eickhoff.  RHP Colon is crarrying a 10-11 mark with a 4.90 ERA.  In three previous road stints during August, the veteran has given up 12 runs in 18+ innings of work..He was just crushed last time out in Colorado. Overall Colon has a 4.62 ERA in August and it appears he is starting to wane.  The Mets are 2-9 in Colon's L11 starts...With Dreckman behind the plate the home team is running RED HOT at 6-0...Philadelphia is the play +1-1/2 runs.

4* Calgary -6 (not higher) over SasatchewanNormally, would avoid this type set with a 5-2 unit vs. an 0-7 club in revenge from a brutal come from behind loss last season in the series.  However, can't trust chop and block attack vs. high powered passing arsenal of the RRs.  With QB Burris in solid form after missing some time, believe we will see the game become a blowout in the second half for Calgary.  Remember 76% of their offense is dedicated to the pass (a change in character), but it will help if they can balance a little more "O" with a run application this evening. Teams that start 0-7 SU have never gotten to the playoff round in the CFL...so, just maybe an early lead could deflat the big crowd and SAS.  The Rough Riders are 3-1-1 ATS L5 in this building...but, remember to play this early and DO NOT LAY MORE THAN -6...Good Luck!#1 College Football 2014...#4 Football OVERALL...BUY FULL-SEASON HUGE!

3* Carolina over Miami

No doubt both clubs won't to be seen as "prepared" in this spot, but this is BB road games for Miami...The number opened at -1 favoring Carolina, now at the Westgate the Dolphins are favored by one.  The chalk has covered 4 straight in preseason meetings, but this is the shortest price. Also, the Fish are 2-6 ATS in Saturday editions, and they will suffer once their first unit exits the playing field..Panthers may have more energy late...CLOSE!

902
5* WASHINGTON -1-1/2 over Philadelphia
MLB RUNS LINE EDITION
BDS
The key for RHP Scherzer (4-3) this evening of course is the pitch count..100 and 102 where his early numbers in April vs. Philly winning both games..14IP, 10H and 2ER. The veteran Scherzer carries a sparkling 1.75 ERA into action having been tagged in just one game back on May 6th vs. Miami..7IP..10H and 5 EARNED RUNS! With the Phillies traveling back from the west coast love our chances here laying 1-1/2 runs.

4* Houston+ over LAC

NBA SMASH MOUTH CALL

BDS

4* LAC over Houston

NBA PLAY OF THE DAY

BDS

3* HOUSTON+ over LAC

NBA FAN APPRECIATION SCORE

BDS

10* Washington -1-1/2 over New York

NHL RUNS LINE

BDS

10* Golden State over Memphis

NBA TOP PLAY

BDS

4* Houston+ over LAC

If the line moves up any further I may be back to adjust the value...Rockets and the Clippers should be playing into a closer lower scoring game tonight...Remember LAC 1-8 ATS at home.  Without the question the value is with the Rockets...Good Luck!

5* METS -1-1/2 Runs over Philadelphia

MLB Runs Line Best Bet 

Bds

4* STL -1-1/2 RL over Cubs

MLB RUNS LINE EDITION

BDS

4* New York Yankees -1-1/2 RL over Toronto

Sabathia or no play for NY.

MLB RUNS LINE

BDS

4* Colorado (Game #2...RL) -1-1/2 over Arizona

MLB RUNS LINE EDITION

BDS

5* Washington -1-1/2 (Scherzer only...) over Miami (Koehler 4.67)

In 4 of Scherzer's starts this season the Nats have scored a total of 6 runs, in the last two outings just "1."  RHP Koehler of Miami has pitched well this season even defeating the Nats allowing no earned runs in a late April date.  So, we look for a reversal at the plate for Washington as they have a need for revenge to support their ace hurler.  Remember, the Marlins are 3-8 with Koehler after 4 days of rest...Furhter, the hurler is more likely to pitch well when he is in the 80 pitch count range...has won both starts, i.e., 2015.  We expect a close game throughout so this should keep Koehler in the game a little too long...Miami 8-23 in Washington and 6-20 vs. a hurler with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. In the runs line department the Marlins have fared better than Washington this season, but we love the night to day switch for Washington...and their 42 hit advantage coming in despite the one game plus in activity.

4* LA RL over Milwaukee

MLB RUNS LINE EDTION

BDS

4* NEW YORK RL -1-1/2 RUNS over Toronto

MLB RUNS LINE EDITION

BDS

4* SF -1-1/2 RL over San Diego

MLB KEY RUNS LINE EDITION

BDS

4* Atlanta -1-1/2 RL over Phillies (Harang)

MLB RL EDITION

BDS

The trending numbers this morning bring contrasts as the Phillies are 5-17 off a win, Braves a perfect 0-7 off a win...so, something will change in the trend department this evening.  We note in this series the wins and losses have reversed in 5-of-6 battles coming into Monday night...The last game in the series Philadelphia won 5-4 in a heart breaking loss for the Braves.  Atlanta is 14-11 in RL editions, the Phillies 11-15. What is sleek and interesting from the Braves perspective is their staff continues to improve lately, even in the pen where they have marked 9 SAVES vs. 5 for Philadelphia. Plus, overall the Atlanta staff is holding opposing bats to a .249 BA. A key stat for me in the early going is fielding, the Phillies have registered 22 errors, while Atlanta has accrued only 14.  Now both teams have more errors than victories...9 and 12, but the differential for the Phillies is much greater and allows for the increase of runs scored for the opposition from the probability standpoint. With Harang consistent and the Phillies getting lineup support from Galvis, Herrara and Ruff, one might be a little doubtful, considering LHP Woods (ATL) 4.03 ERA, and his off performance vs. Washington (remember the Nats bats are hot) last week. However, I feel we are catching an up-tick in the Braves lineup with Johnson and Heyward stroking the pill...ATLANTA 5 Philadelphia 2.

4* Oakland -1-1/2 RL over Oakland

MLB RUNS LINE EDITION

BDS

4* Seattle -1-1/2 RL over Houston

Baseball Runs Line Edition

BDS

5* BALTIMORE -1-1/2 RL over Tampa Bay

MLB RUNS LINE EDITION

BDS

5* ATLANTA over Washington

Huge pull in this encounter, especially on the Wizards side off that fantastic quarter final success. Here look to reverse the trend with desparate Hawks who would love to bring back the once proud fan base.  Atlanta has controlled the recent series in Vegas 4-0-1 ATS to be exact...Further, for some odd reason Washington is horrible in Sunday editions showing 1-9-1 ATS.  With Atlanta at home carrying a 22-8-1 ATS record vs. >.500 units the play is the Hawks!

4* Houston -1-1/2 RL over Seattle

MLB RL SELECTION

BDS...No comment

3* MIAMI -1-1/2 RUNS over Philadelphia (Hamels)

MLB FAN APPRECIAITON RL SPECIAL

BDS

4* STL -1-1/2 over Philadelphia

Night day reversals are more difficult on the road unit, especially if they are in a losing streak...Philadelphia has lost BB games to STL.  More important, they are now 2-8 on the road this season.  RHP Buchanan, who enlists promise, has now regressed somewhat carrying a negative SO/BB in 17-1/2 innings of work.  He has dropped both road scenario's...Mets and Nats with a combined 10-6 total score.  The Phillies have now run to 0-7 in Buchanan's road starts and 0-5 in game #4 of a series...LHP Cooney of STL is a solid prospect carrying a 2-1, 3.63 ERA from AAA baseball. He has a solid 14/5 SO/BB ratio.  The Cardinals support Cooney with a 13-3 record vs. RHP...STL!

10* LAC over San Antonio

NBA PLAYOFF GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

Cashed our NBA GAME OF THE MONTH for April earlier with Orlando plus. Here the Clippers are absolute desperation and we look for them to play their very best set in the current series.  LAC shows 7-1-1 ATS on the road and 11-4 ATS in the series. Good Luck!

3* Toronto +4-1/2 over Washington

Love when past series chalks become the UNDERDOG with a nice number to boot. Remember the UNDERDOG in the series has taken the cash 4 straight times.  Further, Toronto 5-1 ATS when playing in DC.  Washington 4-23-2 ATS after allowing 100+ points in their last game...FAN APPRECIATION SPECIAL.

5* New Orleans+ over Golden State

NBA PLAYOFF GAME OF THE DAY

BDS

Hope you enjoyed our MONSTER winner on the OVER yesterday in the LAC/SA battle. Here we look at a home dog in the Pelicans who are back in New Orleans looking to pick up a much needed playoff win against the Warriors.  No doubt the injuries to Holiday, Evans and Anderson have hurt New Orleans in this early round. We expect Holiday to be at least 80-90% which make a difference in this all out by the Pels to win SU.  In addition, the rebounding Pels show covering 5 straight at home, and UNDERDOG shows 4-of-5 ATS in the series...Good Luck!

Play on:  5* Portland+ (713) over Memphis @ 8:30 Eastern

NBA PLAYOFF GAME OF THE DAY

BDS

Hope you loved our 5* winner on Washington yesterday?  Going back into the regular season the Grizz have won 4 straight in the series by a combined 34 points.  That’s an average of 8-1/2 of per win.  To me that’s an indicator that the subject Vegas line (-5-1/2) is somewhat of a short price. The original opener was -3-1/2.  But, when you consider Memphis could be a little too confident considering their recent series winning streak, you have to search for more data…This is the fifth straight year in the playoffs for Memphis, so you understand our bias towards a slight letdown here.   In addition, Portland (51-31) has covered at an 11-5-1 ATS in Memphis.  Last time out Memphis (55-27) won SU, in their next role they show…5-13-1 ATS.  Finally, Portland is a SUPER 5-1 ATS in Sunday edition’s…Good Luck!

4* Golden State over New Orleans

NBA PLAYOFFS BEST BET

BDS

Have a great situation. but not quite a 5* considering we are in day one of the playoffs. Still have great respect for the overhwhelming offensive edges promoted by the Warriors with the splendid Curry making the show go. Further, the Warriors have an incredible 67-15 record +52 games versus the Pels who are +8...NO CONTEST....Finally, the Warrior are a remarkable 15-2 ATS in the quarterbinals, Pels 3-9 ATS.  With the Warriors 4-0 ATS L4 in the series, and NO 0-4 ATS at GS...WARRIORS PLEASE!

5* Washington (46-36) +3-1/2 over Toronto (49-33)

For quite some time now I have been involved with selections inside the Raptors agenda.  In fact, our GAME OF THE MONTH for April was Orlando+ over Toronto...a monster 10* TOP PLAY. Well, here we go right back against the Raptors even on their home floor.  Remember this is TRIPLE REVENGE for the visitor who has been hurt in the past vs. the Raptors when they go small. But, the Wizards are 4-1 ATS in the Quarter Finals. Also, we note the road team is 5-1 ATS in the series ditto the UNDERDOG. What hurts the ATS angle for Toronto is their horrid 7-15 ATS record on their home floor, followed by a 2-6-1 ATS mark in the Quarter Finals.  If you're playing today, the VALUE is with the Wizards.

4* Washington over Philadelphia

Baseball Key Runs Line

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The Phillies take the field tonight against vs. the improving Nationals who have scored 22 runs in the last three games.  Philadelphia is 3-7, while in the midst of a 5 game losing streak. For the visiting Phillies RHP O'Sullivan (3.00) gave up only 2 runs in his initial effort as a Phillie vs. Washington (4-6) and Scherzer (0.66) last week. It appears the Phillies were extremely deflated yesterday after Hamels was torched by the Nationals. With Scherzer in perfecto form and the Nats smoking at the plate, RL Washington.

4* Toronto -1-1/2 over Tampa Bay

MLB KEY RUNS LINE EDITION

BDS

Another interesting battle w/the Rays edge in the w/Odorizzi 1-0 and a solid 2.37 ERA vs. Toronto. However, the traveling Rays show 2-11 in home openers in the opposition's park. The Blue Jays counter w/RHP Dickey 2-1 L3 starts vs. TB. The Rays are 0-5 with Odorrizzi off a quality start and 1-5  in game #1.  Toronto 4-1 in game #1 plus 5-1 in Monday edition's w/Dickey.

3* LA -1-1/2 RUNS vs. Arizona

MLB R/L Selection 

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Our NBA GAME OF THE MONTH cashed last night w/10* Orlando.  Here the Heat are actually chalked over the more impressive Raptors, but seem t/b in a difficult spot in BB encounters. Toward the seasons end we have historically seen losing units becoming the fav vs. playoff bound entities.i.e., the other night LAL was chalked @ -5 1/2 and covered. Also, we note Toronto 1-16 SU at Miami, while costing their backers plenty at...2-8 ATS off a SU win.  With Miami a solid 13-6 ATS off SU loss...GO HEAT.

*1 NBA PLAYOFFS 2013 SPORTS-WATCH MONITOR

10* Orlando+ over Toronto

NBA GAME OF THE MONTH

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5* Kentucky over Wisconsin

Thought we'd accrue some line value Friday playng this FINAL FOUR war earlier this week, not so. However, that mindset has been offset by public money on the Badgers who look super after last weeks win.  Despite Wisconsin having a slight edge in SOS, feel Wildcats will have sure fire "MO" trying to pefect their 2014-2015 season.  Kentucky (0.6778) has gone PERFECT at 14-0 SU vs. RPI types 1-50.  Wisconsin #4 in the RPI numbers (0.6678) is 11-1 SU vs. 1-50.  And, we all know, the last second win in the FINAL FOUR last year by KU over Wisky has the Badger fans up in arms looking for a reversal of form. Remember, though, Kentucky is 12-4-2 ATS on neutral boards and 2-0-2 ATS vs. Big-10. Wisky 1-3-1 ATS vs. SEC.

4* DUKE over Michigan

CBB TOURENY BEST BET

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3* Temple over Miami Fla

CBB NIT APPRECIATION MOVE

BDS...COMMENTS LATER

Play on: 5* Evansville over UTM

Just a hint, what unit has won BB tourney games on the road vs. Eastern Illinois and ULL?  The kids from Indiana are back at it again against visitng and talented UTM...Only problem Martin's style of basketball can draw more fouls on the road!  UTM does take care of the ball slightly better than the Purple Aces, that will help, but the edges afford Evansivlle will be too much to overcome. Plus, Evansville has an edge in RPI (0.537 vs. 0.514) and SOS (0.508 vs. 0.460) and supports our case.  The Skyhawks have done an incredible job this year going 21-12 SU. They come out of the Ohio Valley Conference that is rated #22 (97.2), while the MAC (Evansville) is carrying a solid #11 ranking (101.2).  CRITICAL MASS:  The Skyhawks are "limiting" opponents to 68.4 points per game on the road, if Evansville is in the 70's...notch an ATS win for our side. Must use the more talented and focused foe being at home, etc...Good Luck!

4* DUKE -2 (not higher) over Gonzaga

NCAA BEST BET

BDS...No comments traveling return Monday.

5* Louisville+ over Michigan State

NCAA TOURNEY BEST  BET

BDS...No comments will return Monday!

5* KENTUCKY over Notre Dame @ 8:45

NCAA TOURNEY BEST BET

BDS...Comments to follow!

4* NJIT over Canisius

CBB TOURNEY SATURDAY MOVE

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