(121) 10* Louisiana Tech +12-1/2 over Marshall

As you know the two teams out of the south that I love are Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech.  Tech paid dividends for us last week, and we missed using the ‘Toppers in that 67-66 win.  Clearly, is seems that the lines makers are making mistakes with the numbers concerning second level BCS types. Here is no change as the line opened -14 and -14-1/2 favoring high flying Marshall.  Our ratings have Marshall at -8 or -8-1/2.  So we have a play AUTOMATICALLY because of the net point differential.  Now you add in the fine spread record by the Bulldogs in road shows 20-7 ATS, our basis for winning is enhanced.  Plus Tech is 4-0 ATS vs. a unit with a winning mark. Finally, we have the Bulldogs hot in conference with a 4-1 ATS record…TAKE THE POINTS!

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Play on: St.Joseph's (722) + over Temple

The reason for the line movement is the physical advantage that Temple possesses when playing one possession at a time. In essence, this will be an old City Series game with defenses and solid FT% making the difference in the final result...Still prefer the Hawks at home, especially getting +2 or +2-1/2 some places. Remember SJU is 6-1 ATS off a SU loss, while Temple is 2-5 ATS off a SU win.  Plus the all-important home team is hitting at a 70% clip L10 meetings.

Temple @ St. Joe    6:30 Eastern AMERICAN-A-10? GAME FGE% 3-Balling FG% TO%0 Total D FT%


Temple



21.10% 42.70% 17% 0.992



FBS Rankings

212th #347 #282 #38
#59


St. Joseph's


24.30% 44.00%

60.20%


FBS Rankings

#156 #333 #255

#330

3* UMASS+ over LSU

We are inserting this selection just as the line moved from +2 to +1.  Overall, we have the Tigers coming in 4-2, while UMASS shows with a nice season so far at 5-2 with a super 6-1 ATS mark. The Minuteman are coached by Derek Kellogg (114-88) who has put together a solid program. UM finished 24-9 in 2013, but lost three starters from the team, including PG Williams (15.6) who was the engineer of the Minuteman offense.  LSU went 20-14 last year guided by HC Johnny Jones (43-28). LSU made it to the NIT, but there has been much off-season discussions about the NCAA tourney?. But, the Tigers lost forward Johnny O'Bryant, their scoring machine to the pros. This season the Tigers have started 4-2 after losing 3 starters from last years unit. Further, LSU has depth issues and now forward Jordan Mickey is injured and is listed as probable (4:00 Eastern).  The Tigers do have a huge front line which will distract the smaller Minutemen. UM is averaging 76.9 points per game with LSU holding the opposition to 68.3 points per game.  Offensively, the Tigers show averaging 73.2 points per game, while the UM defense holding the opposition to 70.9 points per game. UM, however, has a huge edge in 3-Balling shooting 46.2% with the opposing Tigers hitting only 31.8 from beyond the arc. UM defeated LSU 92-90 last season so when you add in the home court, we are in compliance assuming the Tigers have the REVENGE factor set up.  SOS has the Minuteman with the edge this season, as LSU played FCS McNeese State, Gardner-Webb and FBS Weber State. Their only quality win was against Texas Tech (69-64) at the PMAC. Just remember, LSU is 4-16-2 ATS off a SU win. UM is coming off a heart braking loss to highly talented Harvard 73-75, a unit that went 27-5 last year.  They do have solid wins over Northeastern, Florida State, Manhattan, Siena, and Boston College. With UM a solid 6-1 ATS in non-conference, and LSU 1-5 ATS in the same venue we look for a SU win by the Minuteman 76-72.

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5* Miami (475) over New York Jets @ 8:30 Eastern

When the 2-9 Jets face the 7-5 Dolphins on Monday night, we believe the score will end up being a one-sided affair with Miami winning out.  After all, the Jets season hopes are long gone, as they now play out the string of remaining games, whereas Miami must keep winning to have any chance of making the post season. New York’s most dominate issue on offense is the QB position with Smith, then Vick and now back to Smith illustrates my mindset, there is no consistency on offense.  Last time out the Jets were smashed by the Bills 38-3. Another huge problem is the sacks given up by the New York offensive line.  This is the reason the Jets fail to generate extended drives for a score.  The issue is counter intuitive to the defense which ends up being on the field to long.  In fact, this is a key reason why New York is ranked #30 in points allowed. The Miami loss to Denver (39-36) really puts immense pressure on the club considering their current record in the division (7-5). Much blame was put on QB Tannehill who has had a great season, but the youngster threw a critical late interception that pretty much closed the deal vs. the Broncos.  When you have young players at key positions they tend to falter at the most inopportune times.  For example, Miami is 0-3 this season in games decided by 4 points or less.  No doubt this battle is very important, and the Dolphins should get lucky with New York -12 in the turnover category.  In the series the road team is on a PERFECT 4-0 ATS run, while Miami has generated bias with their solid 5-1-1 ATS mark in New York.  Overall the Jets are just 2-8-1 ATS L11 times out.  If you’re playing this game the only side is Miami, because of the “need” factor.

Auburn has been down on defense, while sitting at #111th in penalties allowed. Auburn allows 3.9 yards per carry vs. opposing offenses and 142+ yards rushing per game.This is in contrast to 'Bama's "D" which is #6 in total defense holding opponents to 85.3 yards per game rushing. They've limited teams to under 15 points per game. Our point is, how can QB Marshall dent the Alabama defense with an offense that has committed costly mistakes and turnovers in key situations this season?  Auburn does run for 266 yards per game and 35 points per outing. But, Auburn has yet to meet a talented defense as powerful as Nick Saban brings to the football field every week.  The tradition of game came full circle last year when Auburn defeated Alabama and then went on to play in the championship game vs. Florida State.  This year the Nick Saban coached 'Bama changes places in history with Auburn winning here by a 36-20 score, while staying #1 in the polls.

5* Maryland over Rutgers @ 3:30 Eastern

These two do not like each other, and despite other reports we will see the Turtles ROLL BIG TIME Saturday.  No doubt Rutgers has been the SU/ATS leader in the series, but they show 1-8 ATS in the month of NOVEMBER and 1-4 ATS on grass surfaces.  In addition, when we look at these type RIVALRY GAMES we key in on defense.  The Rutgers edition is allowing 30 points per game...while the Terps have played a tougher SOS. In closing I would look for a wide open game with MD winning out.

FREE TOTAL:

GO OVER with Maryland and Rutgers.

10* UCLA over Stanford

You can take my analysis from our FREE PICK on the Bruins last week and apply it here.  UCLA (9-2) is simply too offensive for Stanford (6-5) in what should be a high scoring game. Yes, we know Stanford has won 6 straight in the series, but again they (Stanford) are over their heads here. The Bruins have distinct yardage edge, plus they show with the key turnover advantage. Stanford comes 4-0 ATS in November with the chalk 5-1 ATS in the series.  Finally, the Cards after a big win last week are 0-6 ATS after a SU win.

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Play on: 10* (269) St. Louis+ over San Diego @ 4:05 Eastern

NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR

I guess the question is how healthy is QB Rivers? He is injured most know about it, but the QB is a gamer and will show up on Sunday afternoon.  San Diego is 6-4, while the Rams go on the road with a 4-6 record.  We always think about the Chargers in the realm of an offensive minded club, but their defense has been their strength in 2014 ranked #9 overall, and #6 in points allowed at 19.2 per game. Now let’s get to the big news QB Shaun Hill of St. Louis.  The quarterback guided the Rams to a SHOCKING 22-7 win over Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.  His stat line 220 yards passing with one touchdown passing.  With Hill’s ability to stretch the field with his arm, the Rams running game had a surge as running back Tre Mason cashed in with 113 yards his best production of the season. What is lost here is the abilities of the Rams front seven on defense, one of the best in the NFL.  I think will see the Rams shutdown the Chargers running game forcing Rivers to throw into shifting coverage.  Overall, I think the Rams will win 20-17 and again SHOCK the sporting community.  If you’re thinking about playing the Chargers, think again as they field Sunday with a PERFECT 0-5 ATS run.  Also, San Diego is 1-6 ATS in November with the Rams 4-1 ATS in the same month.

5* Cincinnati over Houston @ 1:00 Eastern 11/23

The Bengals responded nicely last week against a flat Orleans (27-10) ship that's fading. They now travel to Houston, a difficult building against a fired up football team bringing the defensive MVP to the playing field. I'm sure because of the situation the public domain is taking a ticket with the Texas club, but we have a different mindset here. Okay, we know Houston is hungry and sit just one game in back of the Indianapolis in AFC South. Their assets obviously are their aggressive defense led by Watt (4 TDs), while having the NFL's #3 ranked rushing attack. Where their weakness lies in the secondary as they have given up almost 300 yards a game.  At this writing Cincinnati is averaging 22.4 points per game. Interesting the Houston defense is rated #30 in the NFL allowing over 389+yards per game.  On the Houston side, QB Mallet gets the call for Fitzpatrick, and he's coming off a solid effort producing a QBR of 95.3.  But, with the Bengals getting healthier on defense, I believe you will see a less effective outing Sunday. The Texans have a solid running game, but look for the Bengals to have a great day stuffing the run. In the Houston leads SU 5-3.  Technically, the Bengals have covered 6 straight in the series and that's the reason for their underdog status. So, from our perspective we have have solid line value at +2, if you can purchase it higher do so.  Remember the 5-5-1 Texans are 2-8 ATS off a SU win, and 2-11 ATS after an ATS win...Cincinnati 24 Houston 17

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Play on:  5* Hawaii (210) over UNLV @ 11:00 Eastern

Looking at injury report this morning and checking the wire QB Decker is listed as probable, and most likely will play Saturday night for UNLV (2-9).  He is banged up though, and that’s encouraging for us as UNLV is offensively challenged.  Remember Decker, though, has 10 touches, but 15 interceptions which kills his QBR. But, UNLVs major weakness is defense as they are ranked #123 overall in total defense allowing 513.0 yards per game and 278.5 yards per game on the ground.  They have been a disaster on the score sheet surrendering 37.6 points on average.  The Rainbow Warriors (3-8) went out on the road last week and won over San Jose State 13-0 (first shutout since 2005).  UNLV hits the island Saturday on an 0-4 run SU, they were purged by BYU 42-23.  In the overall series with Hawaii the Rebels are 9-14 SU.  UNLV stopped the Rainbow Warriors 39-37 last year, so this sets up a REVENGE game for Hawaii. The ‘Bows have a very competitive defense ranked #59 nationally, holding the opposition to 26.0 points per game.  The Rebels show on a 0-6 SU streak on the road, while going 16-43-4 ATS on the road.  UNLV is 1-6 ATS vs. Hawaii.  Granted this is a tough number to lay, but Hawaii shows in a positive mindset with RB Isoefa now a viable offensive alternative.  Also, there is special incentive for the Hawaii football team as their program is suffering from the financial standpoint, and would go away if interest in football is not revived…Good Luck!

10* Baylor -28 over Oklahoma State

I am inserting this with the line -28 -28-1/2, make sure you can buy a 1/2 point considering what the aforementioned line states. In this battle we have suffering Oklahoma State with injured QB, have the bottom rated offense in the conference, and they're trying to stay up with the Bears?? Baylor is #1 in total offense shooting 585 yards a game at the opposing defenses, and 51-points per game.  Oklahoma State is on a 4 game losing streak and they've looked bad overall. Granted they have covered 7-of-8 in the series, but the home team is 4-0 ATS. Overall at home Baylor is a sensational 23-4 ATS, Oklahoma State is 0-5 ATS and 0-7 ATS vs. a >.500+ team.

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Play on:  4* California+ (184) over Stanford @ 4:00 Eastern

College Football Upset

Spending more time in the PAC-12 because of the fallout in many SEC programs this year.  As we write our findings have California and Stanford 5-5 SU on the season.  Stanford is 1-3 SU on the road, while California is 2-3 SU at home.  The Cardinal has lost to Southern California, Notre Dame, Arizona State, Oregon and Utah this season.  California has been defeated by Arizona, Washington, UCLA, Oregon and Southern California.  Stanford is on a perfect 0-5 ATS run on the road. Cal has covered 7-of-10 ATS and 6-of-7 ATS this as an underdog.  Remember the kids from Palo Alto have controlled this series with hated California, so the home standing BEARS have major REVENGE Saturday….GL

5* North Carolina+ over Duke @ 7:30 Eastern (Thursday)

We are inserting this early on Monday, but our analysis will follow by Tuesday night. So, please check back. Thank you for your patience.

BDS

No Comment

No Comment

4* Northern Iowa+ over Stephen F. Austin

SFA made a solid run last year getting position in the tournament, but they play an experienced that will not turnover the basketball, excellent leadership and strong foul shooting grabs the cash.

4* Iona+ over Wofford

CBB EASTERN EDGE UNDERDOG

BDS

4* Pittsburgh over Tennessee

MNF SMASH MOUTH WINNER

BDS

4* Hofstra +14 over NC STATE

No the The Pride will not win this SU, but they will be very competitive taking the DD into consideration.  Hofstra has an outstanding technical coach in Joe Mihalich who brings solid guards to the playing floor down south this evening. He is a little on athletic ability, but his kids are well schooled this early in the season. One of the key components is the three-ball Bernardi who could make life for the Wolfpack quite testy. Granted NCS is a super 12-3-1 ATS L16 in Vegas, but they lost 1/3 of their scoring offense from last year, so expect a closer game than the line so indicates. Be back with more later...Good Luck!

5* Miami FLA. +9-1/2 or +10 over Florida

CBB UPSET ALERT

BDS

10* Drexel over St. Joseph's of Pa.

CBB TOP PLAY

BDS

5* New England+3 or more over Indianapolis

I am posting this early and will return with our overall analysis, if time surrenders an opening. Already this morning there is line movement down. Play this ASAP, sorry for the issue, Brad.

4* Holy Cross+ over Harvard

CBB LINE VALUE SITUATION

BDS

457

10* Seattle+ over Kansas City @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL LINE VALUE GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

When the public moved the line from Seattle -1 to KC -1, -1-1/2, I knew my assertions would follow through on the playing field this Sunday.  I love Big Red as an overall technical coach.  And, to support this mindset, if you’ve been following us this season, you know we have been on Kansas City numerous times, including the road test in Buffalo last week.  KC leads the series 32-18, and the last time they played was in 2010 with the “Chefs” winning 42-24.  As we now know Seattle is a SUPER CHAMPION, Kansas City has won just one SUPER BOWL (IV) 23-7 over Minnesota and that’s a “few” years ago. My reasoning, the Seahawks are more structured to handle a championship type game, even on the road.  Seattle is 15-5 ATS vs. winning units and 8-2 ATS on the road vs. >.500 teams.  We know they are just 1-6 ATS in the series, but this “spot” entertains a whole different set of circumstances, including the Seattle ability on defense to mitigate the running game of KC. Good Luck!

465

5* Denver over St. Louis @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

If there is a no-brainer on the NFL card, I believe you are looking at it.  The Denver Broncos come in 7-2, while the struggling Rams show at 3-6.  To make matters worse for St. Louis they are electing to make a change at the quarterback position with Shawn Hill coming back to the lineup.  The only positive for the Rams is they should be able to take the run away from the Broncos who average under 100 yards a game in that category.  But, they still must find a way to limit the electrifying Peyton Manning, and we all know that’s an impossible task.  I looked at a possible LETDOWN, but just can’t see it based on the current facts and circumstances.  Recall the Rams have a history of playing poorly late in the season and show 2-10 ATS in week #11.  Plus, they are 16-39 ATS after gaining under 250 yards in their last game.  In closing, the Broncos are a PERFECT 5-0 ATS on the road vs. a home unit with under a .500 record. Good Luck.

5* GOLDEN STATE -10 or -10-1/2 not higher, over Charlotte

NBA GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

5* LSU -1 over Arkansas

CFB LINE VALUE EDITION

BDS

We waited a little too long to play this as the public money shown earlier this week has evaporated.  At this time STRENGTH DOLLARS are showing from ALL the sharps on the Tigers. We mentioned in our USA interview this week that QB Harris will be taking snaps under center during certain down and distance situations. Because of his agility who will give the depleted Arkansas defense headaches. HC Miles realizes he didn't vie for the SEC title this year, because once again LSU does not have a 5* QB on the roaster. Mettenberger was a Georgia recruit.  It's been years since we've seen this type signal-caller in Baton Rouge. Technically, in this type situation, MILES is 21-1 SU!

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Play on: 5* UL-Monroe+ over UL-Lafayette @ 7:00 Eastern

CFB GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS…

Saturday we are looking to stay away from as much of the marquee games as possible.  So, when we opened the stat sheet and looked at SOS with an underdog scenario in mind, we found a unit that is truly flying under the radar this week.  Down in Louisiana football is the sport of choice, carrying a solid fan base from all levels of academia.  In the five years during the tenure of HC Todd Berry the Warhawks of ULM of gone 1-4 SU in the series with ULL, 1-6 SU since 2008.  The majority of games have been very close, so you can imagine why we have chosen this situation for our clients.  ULL comes in 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS currently riding a 5 game winning streak.  They are coming off a 44-16 destruction on the road versus New Mexico State last Saturday.  ULM shows 3-6 SU & 3-5-1 ATS hitting the field Saturday after losing a heart breaker at talented Appalachian State 31-29.  That was in the second of BB road games, prior they dropped a hard fought battle with A&M 21-16.  Six of the nine games played by ULM this season have been very close.  ULM has lost 5 straight games.  In this series the UNDERDOG has covered 6 straight (15-2 ATS L17).  The opposing ‘Cajuns are 1-8 ATS vs. a unit with a

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Play on:  5* Tennessee (336) over Kentucky @ 4:00 Eastern

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

This week we have 5-5 Kentucky vs. 4-5 Tennessee down in Knoxville Saturday afternoon.  The Vols show off a bye, while the Wildcats attempt to rebound from a 63-31 loss at home to Georgia.  The major question is how will KU respond with their bowl hopes gone considering they have Tennessee and Louisville next to finish the season. Kentucky is 6-17 ATS in SEC games and 0-6 ATS in November. Tennessee owns this series and now catches the Wildcats on a four game losing streak.  If UT wins they have Missouri and Vanderbilt to finish which would qualify for a minor bowl at 7-5 SU.  Tennessee has cashed 7-of-9 ATS in Knoxville, while the chalk is 5-1 ATS in the series…TENNESSEE!

10* Temple+12 over Penn State

CFB EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

Play on: 20* Western Kentucky -8 ½ (330) over Army @ 12:00 Eastern

COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR

We know Army (3-6) is coming off a solid 35-21 over Connecticut last week, while WK (4-5) handled UTEP 35-27.  The Cadets looked improved against the Huskies as the finally ended their three game skid.  Army has lost every road game this year.  The Army offense dictates tempo with their rushing #5 nationally, almost 300 yards per game.  One of key psychological edges for the Cadets is their triple-option attack, as not many in the south use such an attack.  Army, though, rarely throws the football, so if can establish a solid defensive game plan, you have a great shot at defeating the aggressive system.  Where Army really suffers is on defense as they allow almost 33 points per game and well over 400 yards in offense.  Opposing Western Kentucky is the opposite breed from the offensive standpoint focusing primarily on the passing game, averaging 40 points per game.  They are currently rated #2 in the NCAA from the passing yardage standpoint @ 371 yards a game.  QB Doughty is the real deal and has accrued 3,300+ yards throwing down the field.  He’s hit on 28 touches with a 67% passing accuracy. Where the Hilltoppers have problems is on defense as they show way down the rankings giving up almost 42 points per game.  Still, the real issues inside the game for West Point is being on the road where they have suffered at 6-20 ATS of late.  In what most likely be a high scoring shootout, Army simply can’t score quick enough to stay with the Hilltoppers.  WK is 13-6 ATS versus losing teams…Western Kentucky 45 Army 27

4* San Diego +4 or +4-1/2 over Boise State

CBB OPENING BEST ANGLE

BDS

Write-up to follow!

Play on:  4* Cincinnati+1-1/2 over East Carolina @ 7:00 Eastern

CFB LINE VALUE KEY BEST

BDS

The 6-2 Pirates of ECU face the 5-3 Bearcats of Cincinnati on Thursday night in game we feel there has been much line value found in the post for the home team Cincinnati.  The recharged Bearcats changed character midway through season showing off easy wins over South Florida and Tulane, while chasing Memphis for the top spot in the AAC.  Fortunately, for ECU they come in off a bye week losing to Temple on the road prior.  I had a chance to take in the whole Temple game, and believe me the Pirates looked flat (5 fumbles) and inconsistent. Actually, prior to the Temple loss the Pirates were ranked??   The Pirates have the #8 rated defense limiting foes to 339 total yards a game, 23 points per.  Offensively ranked #26 accruing 550 yards per game, while averaging 35.0 points per.   On the other hand, Cincinnati comes in very competitive #70 in total defense (476) allowing 29.8 ppg.  Offensively, the Bearcats are ranked #76 (466) averaging 34.8 points per game.  Clearly, if ECU is to win QB Carden will need to return to form after the Temple debacle.  Carden has a solid receiving group with RBs Hairston and Allen (605) carrying the ground arsenal.  The key for Cincinnati is the quarterback position as stellar Gunner Kiel did not look strong in the Tulane game, as Legaux came in hitting 3 touches to pick up a big win. The home team is 7-1 ATS in series with Cincinnati 4-0 ATS L4 here.  TAKE THE POINTS!

5* Portland over Charlotte

NBA BEST BET LATE MOVE

BDS

A key weakness for the Hornets historically has been their play on the road, as the start the season 0-3 in valued set.  Not only that, they go into a building where they are 0-6 ATS in the series.  Further Portland is on a 4-0 ATS hot streak, 5-1 ATS L6 at home. In the series the home team is 7-1 ATS, while the FAV is 8-2 ATS in the series. Portland 100 Charlotte 90

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Play on: 4* SAC+ (507)over Dallas @ 8:35 Eastern

The 4-3 Dallas Mavericks play home to the Sacramento Kings who are 5-2 thus far in 2014.  Bovada has the Mavs 12-1 and SAC 75-1 to win the NBA Championship.  Here the edge Dallas possesses is their overall scoring ability.  However, currently the Kings are playing more effective defense (101.1) than last year (103.4).  In addition they are hitting 46% of their shots which should give them a decent money chance of covering this inflated number.  If the Mavs have a rare off shooting night most likely the Kings will win this SU.  The key for the SAC defense is to insure Nowitski does not go off in the 25-30 range. Techs have Dallas 2-7 ATS vs. the Pacific group, while the Kings are 10-2-1 ATS off a SU loss. We know the Mavs play well ATS off a SU loss, but the UNDERDOG in the series is on a PERFECT 5-0 ATS run.  With SAC 4-0 ATS L4 in the series, our money is on the visitor tonight.

4* Philadelphia -7 (not higher) over Carolina

No comment

BDS

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Play on:  4* Baltimore over Tennessee

APPRECIATION NFL SPECIAL SUNDAY

BDS….

Key:  Baltimore is off back-to-back losses. 

You might think we are hoping against hope that the “sloppy” Ravens will come to play putting away the Titans.  And, that’s taking into consideration the up-tick by former LSU QB Mettenberger putting spark in the Titans vanilla offense. Techs, initially, bring negatives as the underdog in the series is 17-5-2 ATS, but Tennessee is 16-35-1 ATS vs. >.500 units. Plus, they are just 2-6 ATS in 2014. Baltimore 7-3-2 ATS in the month of November and 10-4 ATS in Baltimore.  We close with HC Harbaugh 8-1 ATS off a SU & ATS loss vs. a unit off a SU double-digit loss.  Baltimore garners an appreciation move from yours truly…GL

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Play on: 5* Kansas City over Buffalo @ 1:00 EST

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

Cashed our NFL GAME OF THE WEEK last time around with New England over Denver.  This Sunday we go up to Buffalo and check out the 5-3 Chiefs and the 5-3 Bills.  We know the Chiefs very well simply because we have a strong book on HC Andy Reid since was the Eagles mentor here in Philadelphia.  Last week the Chiefs won and covered in a 24-10 win over the error prone Jets.  Buffalo did the same winning an covering before their bye over those same Jets 43-23.  The opening line was -2, it’s now down to -1 favoring KC.  Yes, the early money has been on Buffalo.  At the quarterback position we now have a wash as Alex Smith has been consistent of late leading the Chiefs to wins in 5-of-6 SU.  Replacement QB for Buffalo Kyle Orton has brought the improving Bills to victory in 3-of-4 SU.  Orton took over for the struggling E. J. Manuel and the Bills have prospered. But, this time around the Bills offense meet the #1 passing defense (199) in KC.  Over statistically both clubs are similar KC #5 on defense Buffalo #7.  Offensively, KC is #26, while Buffalo is #28.  The last time these two met was last year as KC won 23-13 garnering two fortunate defensive touchdowns.  Techs have the Bills 1-4 ATS off a SU win of more than 14 points and 9-24-1 ATS off a SU win.  The road team has covered 5-of-6 in the series.  We realize Buffalo 6-1 ATS vs. KC, the Chiefs did not have QB Smith in the equation.  Plus KC is a super 10-3 ATS on the road. With QB Smith starting his football team is 21-1-1 SU.

10* Tampa Bay +3 over Atlanta

NFL TOP PLAY UNDERDOG

BDS...

Love this situation as we have the Atlanta Falcons (?) laying points on the road. This scenario carries the EMOTIONAL ANGLE of the day as we catch the Bucs off a win trying to extract a measure of revenge vs. Atlanta for their 56-14 beating up in Atlanta earlier this season.  This is a MUST WIN for the Bucs who's suffering fans have not seen their favs win at home in 2014. Stay with the Bucs today.

4* Utah+ (194) over Oregon @10:00 Eastern

WISE GUYS BEST BET

This is a rebound effort for us as last week we dropped a rough outing with ND’s special teams and rushing defense going to sleep late in the game.  Here I have great respect for the Oregon program.  In fact, in our early season interviews we projected the Ducks as one of the units in the College Championship game.  Honestly, I don’t know if they’ll get that far because the Utes being at home with their defense have a shot SU of winning the whole game.  Oregon shows 8-1, while opposing Utah hits the field with a solid 6-2 mark. Both teams have covered 4 straight in conference, while Utah is 7-0 vs. winning units.  Finally, we’ll back the Utes who are 17-8 ATS off a SU loss.